#304 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern -2.5 over Duke, Friday at 9 PM ET - Northwestern should have some extra motivation here after getting rolled 38-14 @ Duke last season.  Don’t be scared off by that final score as the Blue Devils are a completely different team this season.  Their QB in that game Riley Leonard is now starting at Notre Dame.  Duke lost nearly their entire offensive line (119th in returning starts) and defensive line from a year ago.  They are 130th in lettermen returning and their coaching staff has completely turned over with Manny Diaz as the head man after Mike Elko left for Texas A&M.  The Wildcats have the much more stable situation here with 15 starters back, the 4th most returning lettermen in college football, along with the same coaching staff.  NW had a solid win in week 1 beating MAC favorite Miami OH 13-6 and holding the Redhawks to just 40 yards rushing on 24 carries.  That’ll be a problem for Duke who struggled big time to run the ball vs FCS Elon tallying just 59 yards rushing on 27 carries.  Duke new QB Murphy had a solid day but with winds expected to be around 20 MPH right along the Lake Michigan shore (NW’s makeshift stadium this year is only a few yards from Lake Michigan) on Friday night, the team that runs the ball better should come out on top here.  We think that’s Northwestern.

#454 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -2 over Green Bay Packers, Friday at 8:20 PM ET – Game being played in Brazil - We think the Eagles will have a huge chip on their shoulders entering this season after losing 6 of their last 7 games a year ago including an embarrassing 32-9 loss in the playoffs to Tampa Bay.  The fact is, they were very banged up down the stretch, including QB Hurts who was nowhere near 100% in the 2nd half of the season.  They also upgraded big time at both coordinator positions which will help dramatically in 2024.  Kellen Moore will call the offensive plays after successful stints at Dallas and LA Chargers where his teams averaged 26 points in his 5 years as coordinator.  Vic Fangio, one of the top defensive minds in the NFL, will handle the stop unit.  The Eagles fell off a cliff last year after finishing #1 in total defense in 2022 they dropped to 26th last season and we expect a big improvement under Fangio.  The Packers are a bit overvalued in our opinion.  Let’s not forget this team was just 9-8 last season, squeaked into the playoffs at a 7 seed after beating Carolina, Minnesota (with Nick Mullens at QB), and then Chicago to close out the season.  Their win over Dallas in the playoffs was impressive but how good is this team?  Their defense needs to take a huge step forward under new DC Hafley (HC at Boston College last year) after finishing 22nd in total defense each of the last 2 seasons.  The favorite has been money in the bank in NFL International Games with a SU record of 33-10-1 and a spread record of 29-15 (66%).  We’ll call for Philly to win this one by a FG or more. 

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -2.5 at Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - The Fever have the best home court in the WNBA with the Clark “Fever” running high, but Minnesota, in our opinion, is the 2nd best team in the W behind the Liberty. The Fever are solid offensively with the 3rd best Offensive Efficiency rating in the W at 1.055PPP. Indiana relies on their 3PT shooting which is 4th best in the league at .35%. Minnesota is slightly behind the Fever in terms of OEFF at 1.048PPP and are the best percentage 3-point team in the league at .38%. The separator between these two teams is defense. The Lynx have the best DEFF in the W at .966PPP allowed. Indiana in comparison is 2nd to last in DEFF allowing 1.086PPP. Minnesota can nullify the Fever’s typical advantage beyond the arc with the best 3PT% defense in the W at .29% allowed. Indiana will have a tough time defending the Lynx great shooting from deep as they allow opponents to make over .36%, 2nd worst number in the W. Minnesota lost to the Fever at home earlier this season and won’t overlook them here.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -7.5 vs. Seattle Storm, 7 PM ET - The Storm have been disappointing since the Olympic break and a team we thought could make a serious run for the title. Seattle is good at home and just average on the road with an 8-8 SU record. The Storm have a negative point differential away from home of -0.8PPG. In comparison the Liberty are 14-2 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.3PPG which is best in the league. On the season the Storm have one of the best Defensive Net ratings in the league but in their last seven games they rank 7th with a DNR of 102.3. In that same time frame the Liberty are best in the W at 94.3 in DNR. Offensively it’s not close either with the Liberty holding a 103.7 ONR, the Storm rate 98.3 in ONR over their last 7-games. We recently cashed a big play on the Liberty -4 in Seattle, a New York 98-85 win. New York shot 51% in that game and DOMINATED the glass with a 45 to 17 rebound advantage. NY has won 6 straight against the Storm with both W’s this season coming by double-digits. Lay the points.

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics +6 at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - I’ll be honest, at first glance I was going all in on the Over of 170, but that has been quickly bet up to 174.5 which will keep us off the O/U. We do like the dog here with the Mystic though as Dallas is over-priced. The Wings are much better with the return of Sabally but they shouldn’t be laying this big of a number against a Mystic team on the upswing. Washington has faced a tough schedule since the Olympic break with a pair of games against the Lynx and Storm, along with a game vs. the Sun. Dallas has also faced a tough schedule in that same 7-game span and have been exposed defensively with a DNR of 112.9, worst in the league. In comparison the Mystic have the 4th best Defensive Net Rating over that 7-game stretch of 99.7. Dallas was recently a -7-point favorite at home against the Sparks, who are the worst team in the W, and narrowly won by 3-points. Washington is obviously being underpriced by the Books with spread wins in 4 of their last five games. Grab the points.

#219 ASA PLAY ON Boston College +17 over Florida State, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - This line was +21 last week prior to FSU losing to Georgia Tech so we’ve lost some value but still feel this number is too high. The most concerning thing to us about FSU’s loss last week was their strength on both sides of the ball was supposed to be in the trenches and they were pushed around by the Yellow Jackets. Tech averaged 5.3 YPC in that win with the Seminoles only averaging 3.2 YPC. We don’t think it will get any easier here vs a BC team that ran for 152 yards on FSU last year and brings back nearly everyone. In fact, the Eagles nearly pulled the upset last season losing 31-29 and they dominated the stat sheet outgaining the Noles 457 to 351 in that loss. New HC Bill O’Brien takes over a BC team that returns 81% of their total yards from last year (20th nationally) and 67% of their total tackles from a year ago (39th). That’s from a team that had a winning season and won a bowl game a year ago. QB Castellanos is back and he gave FSU fits last year throwing for 305 yards while rushing for 95. Last year’s FSU team was MUCH better than this year’s team and on the other side we expect the Eagles to be improved this year. Veteran coach O’Brien has a game’s worth of film on the Seminoles while Florida State won’t know what to expect with BC’s new coaching staff. Over the last decade, teams that are playing their first game of the season vs a team that already has a game under their belt have covered 56% of the time. Much more important to have game film on your opponent rather than having the experience of already playing a game. While we do expect FSU to come out on top at home, we don’t see a 2 TD+ win. BC will give them some problems here. Take the points.

#218 ASA PLAY ON USC +4.5 over LSU, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral site in Las Vegas, much closer to USC (4 hour drive). Both teams enter this game having lost a majority of their offensive production from last season. LSU lost Heisman QB Daniels, their top RB and their top 2 WR’s, both 1st round NFL picks. USC lost QB Williams, their top RB, and top 2 WR’s as well. Both offensive lines should be strong this season. Each finished with nearly identical defensive numbers, both outside the top 100 in total defense and outside the top 90 in defensive efficiency. We’ve heard good things about USC’s defense coming out of camp and we expect them to improve dramatically under new DC Lynn who came over from UCLA. Lynn improved the Bruins defense in one season from 87th in total defense in 2022 to 11th in 2023. That same UCLA defense allowed just 19 PPG last year after giving up 31 PPG the previous season. LSU is a bit concerned about their defensive line which normally doesn’t happen in Baton Rouge. The Tigers D-line is a group that features 10 total first-year players within LSU's football program. We look for new USC QB Moss to have a big season. In his one start last year, Moss threw for 372 yards and 6 TD’s in USC’s bowl win over Louisville. HC Lincoln Riley’s offense is always humming no matter who the QB is. He turns QB’s into Heisman contenders. We have these teams rated closer to even and we trust Riley much more than LSU HC Kelly. Riley is 6-1 ATS in his career as a dog of more than 3 points and Kelly’s teams have lost to FSU to open each of the last 2 seasons. We think this one goes to the wire so we’re grabbing the points.

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings +3.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 4 PM ET - Two of the hotter teams in the WNBA right now square off in a late afternoon tipoff in Dallas. The Fever have won 7 of their last ten overall and 5 of six since he Olympic break. Dallas has ripped off 3 straight wins. The Wings two most recent wins are very impressive as they beat Las Vegas and Minnesota, the top two teams in the West. The Wings are finally healthy with Satou Sabally back in the lineup, who is scoring 17PPG. Indiana has played well since the break but really have just one quality win in that stretch over Connecticut and two other semi-impressive wins over Seattle and Phoenix but all three were at home and Seattle/Phoenix seem to be fading. Right before the Olympic break these same two teams met on this court with the Fever favored by -4-points. Dallas won that game without Sabally 101-93, and you can see for yourself the odds in this game haven’t been adjusted enough with her in the lineup. The Wings are a team that can score with anyone which is what we expect them to do today. Dallas had a poor start to the season which included a 2-6 SU record at home. Most recently they have won 4 of their last five at home. Grab the points and the underdog.

#198 ASA PLAY ON Troy -8 over Nevada, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great line value on Troy in this game.  The Trojans were -15.5 a week ago in this match up and because Nevada played SMU close last week as a 27 point dog, this line has dropped through 2 key numbers 14 & 10.  Getting the Trojans at home under -10 is a very solid value.  Looking closer at Nevada’s 29-24 loss at home vs SMU last week reveals that the game shouldn’t have been all that close.  SMU was +6 first downs, +110 total yards, and nearly outgained the Wolfpack by 2.0 YPP.  Now after leaving it all on the field on Saturday, Nevada must travel across the country to play in 90 degree heat.  A tough ask for a team who had a win total of just 2.5 games this year, the lowest in college football.  Troy is replacing many of their key players plus they have a new coaching staff in place which should be a benefit as Nevada won’t be sure what to expect on either side of the ball.  Meanwhile, the Trojan staff has a full game of film on Nevada and that has proven to be beneficial.  In fact, over the last decade, teams playing their first game of the season vs teams that have already played a game have covered 56% of the time, so advantage Troy here.  We expect another high level defense from Troy this season who finished in the top 10 nationally last season in efficiency (YPP allowed).  Nevada will struggle offensively in this game.  Despite their new coaching staff (Nevada has a new staff as well), Troy is simply a solid program that has a record of 23-5 the last 2 seasons.  The Trojans win this one by double digits.

#186 ASA PLAY ON 10* Florida +2.5 over Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We just don’t trust this Miami team coming out of the gates.  Lots of hype around the Canes with multiple transfers securing key spots including QB Ward who came over from Washington State.  We think it will take them some time to get acclimated to each other and let’s face it, while Miami HC Cristobal is a very good recruiter, he is not a great head man.  He has been in charge of the Canes for 2 years with plenty of talent to do very well and his record here is just 14-11.  While U of M loaded up on transfers, we don’t like the continuity of this team ranking outside the top 100 in returning letterman and return tackle percentage on defense.  Again, they may struggle early in the year starting on Saturday.  Florida is coming off a tough 5-7 season in 2023 (5 of their losses came vs teams ranked 19 or higher) and nobody is talking about this team which is just how they like it.  The Gators return a bunch of production on offense ranking 36th nationally in returning yards.  Graham Mertz is back at QB and he finished 3rd in the nation in completion percentage last year at 73%.  It looks like top RB Johnson (2,500 career yards) will play here after missing some camp after a minor knee surgery.  We’ve been hearing good things coming out of camp about the Gator defense, especially the defensive line which is very deep this season.  Miami seems to be overrated every year.  They bring in players in highly rated players in recruiting and the portal and it rarely transfers to the field  The Canes were ranked in the top 25 entering the season in 2018, 2021, and 2022 and finished outside the rankings in each of those season.  The Swamp is a tough place to play with the Gators winning 28 of their last 35 games here, and Napier is 11-2 ATS in his career as a small home dog (+5 or less).  We take the Gators getting points at home on Saturday.

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics +9 vs. Connecticut Sun, 3 PM ET - The Mystic are playing well right now with 3 straight wins and have been competitive in all six games since the Olympic break. In their last six games the Mystic have a negative point differential of minus -3.5PPG which is 1-full point lower than their season average. They have a -4.4 Net Rating since the break also. Washington has a 20-11 ATS record this season and continues to be undervalued by the Books. Connecticut is slightly over-valued here and have been for most of the season with a 12-18-1 ATS record on the year. Since the break, the Sun are 4-2 SU but they have lost twice on the road to the Fever and Dream in that stretch. This has been a tight series with 9 of the last ten meetings decided by 8-points or less. In the most recent meeting the Mystic took the Sun to OT before losing close 94-91. We like the points and Washington.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* New York Liberty -2.5 at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - We like the Liberty here by double-digits in Seattle over the Storm. Seattle has a loaded roster but has struggled of late with a 2-3 SU record since the Olympic break. The Storm have a pair of wins against the Dream and Mystics who have a combined 19-42 SU record and are two of the bottom four teams in the league. The three losses in that five-game sample have come against the Dream, Fever and Mystics, again lower tier teams in the W. New York has the best record in the league at 26-6 SU with the best average point differential of +9.3PPG. The Liberty have the best offensive rating in the league at 109, the 4th best defensive rating at 97.1 and the best overall Net rating of +11.9. Seattle is slightly better than NY defensively but much worse offensively. The Liberty are 12-4 SU on the road this season with an average +/- of +9.4PPG. Granted, Seattle is good at home with a 12-4 SU record and an average point differential of +10.5PPG but their schedule to this point at home has been extremely easy. NY has beaten the storm 5 straight times and are in a great spot here coming off a loss in their most recent game. The Liberty are 11-1 SU in the last two regular seasons when coming off a loss and with this number being as low as it is we like our chances. Lay it!

#142 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota +2.5 over North Carolina, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We like the host getting points in this one as we expect the Gophers to win outright. These 2 met last season @ UNC and the line was -7 in favor of the Heels which tells us Minnesota should probably be a slight favorite here and maybe even more when we look closer at what these teams have returning. Minnesota controlled the trenches in last year’s loss averaging 5.5 yards per carry compared to just 2.8 for UNC. The Heels couldn’t run the ball at all on this Gopher defense and will have a tougher time this year with 4 new starting offensive linemen, none who have ever started a CFB game. Minnesota, on the other hand, returns most of their front 7 which shut down this running game last year. The Tar Heels don’t have top 5 pick QB Drake Maye to rely on this season after accounted for 448 of UNC’s 518 yards last year. Head coach Mack Brown said they may go with a 2 QB rotation here with A&M transfer Johnson (who is OK at best) and returning back up Harrell who is not a great passer. If UNC struggles to run the ball again do we trust these QB’s to carry the load behind a new offensive line? We don’t. On the other side of the ball, the Gophs should have one of the better offensive fronts in the Big 10 with 4 starters back including their LT who is a potential 1st round pick. Their top RB Taylor, who ran for 138 yards on 6.3 YPC vs UNC last year, was banged up a bit in camp but looks like he’ll be ready to go. Even if not, they’ve brought is some solid RB’s and HC Fleck considers that room very deep. New QB Brosmer, who transferred from New Hampshire, was a finalist for the FCS’s version of the Heisman last year and has been solid in camp by all reports. He shouldn’t have a ton of pressure on him to carry the load here if Minny can run the ball like we think they will. Minnesota should control the trenches on both sides of the ball in this one and we have them as a slight home favorite here. We will take the value with them as a dog.

ASA NFL play on Denver Broncos -3 vs. Arizona Cardinals, 4:30 PM ET - The Broncos and Sean Payton have built some solid momentum in the preseason and are excited with rookie QB Nix, who has looked good in two games. Nix will not start or play in this game but we expect Denver to focus on winning this game and head into the regular season on a positive note. The Broncos have a QB2 battle going on between Stidham and Wilson who are capable backups. In limited action in the two exhibition games these two QB’s are a combined 23/37 for 248 total yards. The Broncos are 2-0 in the preseason with a 25-point win and a 4-point win. Arizona is 0-2 and will also sit starters in this game, including QB1 Murray. That leaves the quarterback duties to Ridder and Tune who are also battling it out for the QB2 spot. Last week with those two QB’s getting all the reps the Cardinals offense produced just 150 passing yards and 13-points. Arizona’s defense gave up 24-first downs to the Colts, 356 total yards and 24 first downs. NFLx teams that are coming off a 20+ point win in their previous game have a cover rate of 63% in their next game dating back 10+ seasons. Denver fits the bill this week after a 25-point win over the Packers last week. Lay it.

ASA WNBA play on Indiana Fever +5 at Minnesota Lynx, 8 PM ET - The Lynx are in a very tough scheduling spot here having played their biggest rival last night (Aces), and now have get the Fever who are rested. Minnesota has won two HUGE games against Las Vegas and are now playing their 3rd game in four nights. This is also their 4th game in 8 days. Indiana last played on August 18th, a home win over Seattle. Since the Olympic break the Fever have had a pair of quality wins over Phoenix and the Storm. Indiana and Minnesota met on this court July 17th with the Fever winning 81-74 as a +4.5-point underdog. If you watched that game, you know there wasn’t a home crowd advantage for the Lynx and there were far more Caitlyn Clark/Fever fans in attendance. Indiana has some of the worst defensive numbers on the season but have been much better in recent games, ranking 7th in Defensive Net Rating in their last 5. Over that same 5-game period the Fever have the best Offensive Net Rating in the league at 114.5. Minnesota is the better overall team and Napheesa Collier is one of the league's best players, but the scheduling situation warrants a bet on Indiana.

#121 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers -7 over Detroit Lions, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has said he will play his starters in this one including QB Russell Wilson. The offense has not been good thus far in the pre-season under new OC Smith who we feel is a big upgrade over last year’s OC Canada. After scoring only 15 total points in their first 2 pre-season games, expect the Steelers really push to put points on the board and pick up some positive momentum heading into the regular season. Last week was flat out poor for this Pitt offense but in week 1 they showed some life averaging 6.0 YPP vs the Texans but just couldn’t put points on the board. We think that changes today. Wilson and Justin Fields are in a battle for the starting job and it looks like both will get extensive action here. Meanwhile, Detroit played their starters last week in a 24-23 last second win @ KC and most, if not all, will sit this one out. So while Pitt will be going with 2 NFL level starters at QB in this one, the Lions will be using Nate Sudfeld, Hendon Hooker, and Jake Fromm under center. We mentioned Detroit’s win last week @ KC, however in their first pre-season game, they sat most of their starters as well and lost to the Giants 14-3 getting outgained by 1.2 YPP. This game is much more important for the Steelers who are 0-2 in the pre-season and really need something positive coming out of this game. Tomlin has always been a “want to win in the pre-season” coach with an 18-4 SU record the previous 6 seasons prior to this year. You can bet he absolutely wants to win this one and convincingly if he can. Pittsburgh wins by at least a TD on Saturday afternoon.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +6 at Las Vegas Aces, 9:30 PM ET - This matchup between the top two teams in the Western Conference promises to be a close one, likely decided by 5 points or less either way. Minnesota holds the edge in overall Net Rating at +8.2, compared to Las Vegas at +6.4. Defensively, the Lynx are superior, ranking 1st in Defensive Net Rating, while the Aces come in at 5th. Offensively, the Aces are 2nd in the WNBA, with the Lynx at 6th. Minnesota has excelled as an underdog this season, boasting a 7-3 record against the spread in that role. They’ve also won three consecutive games, giving them a 1.5-game lead over the Aces in the standings. With Collier back, the Lynx are significantly stronger than the team that struggled before the All-Star break. They are 7-5 SU on the road this season with a point differential of +4.6 PPG. Conversely, the Aces haven’t been a reliable bet this season, particularly against the spread, both at home (6-9 ATS) and overall (10-16 ATS). Last season, Las Vegas dominated at home with a 19-1 SU record and an average point differential of +17.6 PPG. However, this season they are just 9-6 SU at home with a much smaller average point differential of +4.5 PPG. While Vegas’ offense has seen improvement with Chelsea Gray back in action, I’m hesitant to expect a dominant win from the Aces, especially after their recent home loss to the New York Liberty, another top team. The Aces have already lost six home games this season, and clearly home-court advantage hasn’t provided the Aces with the edge it once did.

#922 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - This game is being priced with too much emphasis on the starting pitching match-up and, even then, there is a flawed perception here!  When one first looks at this match-up they see Garrett Crochet with a 3.61 ERA this season and a 3.28 ERA in his career.  One also sees Logan Webb with similar numbers as he has a 3.17 ERA this season and a 3.36 ERA in his career!  Before we even get into the vast difference between the recent trending of the White Sox and Giants, there is also a big difference in trending between these pitchers and it is not what one would expect given those numbers for Crochet.  The White Sox southpaw is dealing with a major stretch of struggles with only his last start, though short, an exception! Crochet has not lasted more than 4 innings in any of his last 7 starts and has averaged 3.1 innings per start!  Behind him is a very bad White Sox bullpen and also Crochet is off a scoreless 4-inning start but this followed him having given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings in his 4 outings since the All Star break!  As for Webb, he is in phenomenal current form as he has allowed only 2 earned runs in 29.1 innings over his last 4 starts.  Also, on the season he is 7-3 with a 2.26 ERA in his home starts!  Opponents are hitting only .223 against him in San Francisco.  Now, about those team trends, the Giants have won 11 of 16 home games and are still very much alive in the Wild Card race.  The White Sox, on other hand, are going down this season as one of the worst teams in all-time MLB history.  They head into this one with just 3 wins in 35 games and also are 12-53 on the road this season.  San Francisco wins this season have featured 72% of them coming by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Chicago's losses have seen 72 of 97 come by a multi-run margin.  Strong odds on yet another blowout loss for the White Sox here. Lay the run line in this one!

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings +14.5 at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Liberty who are off a HUGE win in Las Vegas and have a BIG game on deck against Connecticut. Meanwhile Dallas comes into this game off a blowout loss at home to the Sun and will be looking to play at a much higher level here. The Wings got some help with the return of Satou Sabally who has missed most of this season with an injury. Sabally averaged 18.6PPG last season and grabbed over 8-rebounds per game. The Liberty have faced the weakest schedule in the league this season, so their overall stats are skewed in their favor. The Wings by comparison have played the toughest schedule to date, hence their negative -8.2PPG differential. NY is 12-2 SU on the season but are 3-9 ATS at home as a favorite. The Wings have failed to cover as a double-digit dog in their last three games in that role but that was also without Sabally in the lineup. The Wings have covered 4 of the last six meetings dating back to the start of the 22 season. We like the situation and the dog here.

#430 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Pick'em over New Orleans, Sunday at 8 PM ET - The Niners are coming off a 17-13 loss @ Tennessee last week in a game where none of their starters played.  Even with that, San Fran outgained Tennessee on a YPP basis (5.3 to 4.9) but ran 14 fewer offensive snaps.  Both of the 49er TD drives were 70+ yards while Tennessee has a 15 yard TD drive after a SF turnover which was the difference.  Head coach Shanahan has said he’s playing his starters this week at home including QB Purdy who did not see the field last weekend.  The rotation behind Purdy is solid with Josh Dobbs, who started 13 games last year for Arizona & Minnesota, along with Brandon Allen who has some solid NFL experience.  New Orleans is coming off a win last week 16-14 on a last second FG vs Arizona.  The Saints were lucky to come away with a win in that one as they were outgained by 40+ years and on a YPP basis 4.8 to 4.3.  They were also outrushed by the Cards 4.7 YPC to 3.5 YPC, not ideal facing a 49er team that finished 4th in the NFL in rushing last year.  The QB rotation for New Orleans isn’t as strong as San Fran with rookie Rattler and 2nd year man Haener as the options behind starter Derek Carr.  It will also be the 2nd straight weekend the Saints travel to the west coast after facing Arizona on the road last week.  The Niners are the deeper team and we like the fact they are coming off a loss.  They should play with some urgency at home in this one and all we need is an outright win.  Take San Francisco on Sunday night.

ASA top play on Seattle Storm -2.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 3:30 PM ET - The pace of play or tempo for this game should be fast as the Storm are the 5th fastest paced team in the league at 97.90 possessions per game, the Fever are 6th at 96.92. In terms of offense, Storm are 5th in O-Net rating, the Fever are 6th. Seattle is the more efficient team averaging 1.047-points per possession, Indiana checks in at 1.034PPP, both rank in the top half of the league. The big difference between these two teams is defensively. The Storm are 3rd in Defensive Net Rating (94), the Fever are second to last at 108.2. Indiana is 7-5 SU at home this season, but they do have a negative average point differential of minus -1.7PPG. These two teams have met 3 times this season with the Storm winning all three and the last two came by 15 and 12-points. Seattle is off an upset loss in Atlanta, while the Fever just got a big win over Phoenix. We like the Storm to bounce back here.

#200029 ASA PLAY ON Crystal Palace +0.25 (-126) at Brentford, Sunday at 9 AM ET - Crystal Palace looks quite strong in terms of their starting 11 after the off-season changes they made. Brentford has a defense that is looking a bit depleted entering this one. The Bees are at home and are a tough club in their own right but we like the way this Crystal Palace club is headed and getting the +0.25 goal means we can still earn some cash even if this match ends in a draw here. Last season Crystal Palace had only 8 road losses in 19 road matches while Brentford had only 5 home wins in 19 home matches. The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one. We will take Crystal Palace on the goal line in this one.

#929 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 9:38 PM ET - The Braves expected to start Chris Sale in this one and the Angels are likely trotting out Griffin Canning to the mound for this one.  Sale is 13-3 with a 2.61 ERA this season.  Canning is 4-10 with a 5.11 ERA on the year.  Sale is off an outing in which he threw 7 scoreless innings on the road and he has now allowed a total of only 13 earned runs in his last 10 road starts!  Canning has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 7 of his last 11 starts.  In addition to the starting pitching edge here for Atlanta, the Braves are seeking to bounce back from a 3-2 loss yesterday here in Anaheim.  The Braves are now off B2B road losses but this followed wins in 8 of 11 away from home.  Atlanta has not lost more than 2 straight road games since two months ago - all the way back in the middle of June!  The Braves had scored 6.3 runs per game in their 8-3 run on the road prior to these B2B losses.  We look for them to bounce back strong here against Canning and the hosts will not be able to keep up.  This is an Angels team that has averaged only 2.9 runs scored per game in their last 7 games.  Los Angeles is on a 5-9 run in home games and has scored only 2.4 runs per game in their last 9 games played here in Anaheim.  The Angels bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom half of the majors while the Braves bullpen ERA is among the top 3 teams in the majors!  The Braves are 22-13 in interleague action this season and 51 of their 64 wins on the season have come by 2 or more runs.  Lay the run line in this one!

#966 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - This game is being priced with too much emphasis on the starting pitching match-up and, even then, there is a flawed perception here!  When one first looks at this match-up they see Garrett Crochet with a 3.65 ERA this season and a 3.30 ERA in his career.  One also sees Spencer Arrighetti, a rookie, with a 5.14 ERA this season!  Before we even get into the vast difference between the recent trending of the White Sox and Astros, there is also a big difference in trending between these pitchers and it is not what one would expect given those numbers.  Arrighetti has been pitching like a phenom of late while Crochet is dealing with a major stretch of struggles!  The Astros Arrighetti has been charged with only 11 earned runs on just 20 hits in his last 5 starts and these have covered 31 innings on the mound!  Also, Arrighetti has struck out 33 in 19 innings over his last 3 starts!  Crochet has not lasted more than 4 innings in any of his last 6 starts and has averaged 3 innings per start!  Behind him is a very bad White Sox bullpen and also Crochet has given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings in his 4 outings since the All Star break!  About these teams, the Astros have won 8 straight games and have soared to 1st place in the NL West.  The White Sox, on other hand, are going down this season as one of the worst teams in all-time MLB history.  They head into this one with just 2 wins in 28 games and also are 11-49 on the road this season.  The Astros wins this season have featured 80% of them coming by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Chicago's losses have seen 68 of 93 come by a multi-run margin.  Strong odds on yet another blowout loss for the White Sox in this one.  Lay the run line in this one!

#114 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets +2.5 over Washington Commanders, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Commanders will be sending rookie QB Daniels under center to start on Saturday and we expect him to have big problems vs this Jets defense.  The 2 teams had a joint practice on Thursday in New York and the NY defense dominated as we expected.  Daniels was 7 of 15 passing but all of his completions were screens and check downs.  It’s been reported that he had only 25 yards passing on those 7 completions.  Washington’s offensive line is not a strong point (ranked 19th per PFF) and they are banged up on top of that.  Three potential starters sat out Thursday’s joint practice and most likely won’t play on Saturday.  That’s bad news vs a Jets defensive line that is talented and deep (ranked #1 per PFF).  We look for Washington’s offense to struggle big time on Saturday vs this deep NY defense.  On the other side the Jets sat QB Rodgers for the joint practice on Thursday and they still moved the ball well on the Commanders defense with veteran Tyrod Taylor at the helm.  Rodgers won’t play in this game on Saturday but Taylor, who has over 12,000 career passing yards, should get lots of run with 3rd string QB Travis out with an injury.  Jets head coach Saleh has been a successful pre-season coach with a 6-3 overall record including a perfect 3-0 in his first NFLX game each season.  The Jets are the better overall team and much stronger on both lines of scrimmage.  We’ll take NY at home on Saturday.

ASA play on Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Friday, 7 PM ET - The first aspect of this game we will discuss is the QB rotations for both teams. Depth is critical in NFLx games, and the deeper teams have a clear advantage later in the game. The Texans are the clear-cut choice here when it comes to QB depth. Texans will start and play CJ Stroud and the other starters into the 1st quarter. They will then turn over the QB duties to Davis Mills, Case Keenum and Tim Boyle. Davis/Keenum have a combined 114 career NFL games under center, including several starts. Tim Boyle has even played in 20 games dating back to 2019. In the shortened action in the preseason HOF opener the 3 Texan QB’s combined to go 19/27 for 197 passing yards with 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s. The Steelers have a QB battle going on in camp, but Russell Wilson will not play in this game and HC Tomlin says Justin Fields won’t start and will only see limited action. Pittsburgh was in the bottom ten teams in the league in Offensive total yards while managing just 17.9PPG which ranked 28th. Houston on the other hand was 12th in total yards gained last season while putting up 22.2PPG. The Texans hold the advantage defensively here too as they gave up 330.7YPG a year ago versus the Steelers who allowed 342.1YPG. We like the aspect of the Texans having live game experience under their belt after the Hall of Fame game while the Steelers are just getting started. We will lay the points with Houston.

#972 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Mariners Luis Castillo has a 2.82 ERA at home this season. He is off a fantastic July in which he went 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA. Seattle was off yesterday after a 6-0 shutout loss to the Phillies Sunday. The Mariners will be ready to bounce back off that loss here and had won 6 of 8 games before that loss. The Tigers have lost 9 of 12 games and scored only 2.8 runs a game in these dozen games. Detroit starter Keider Montero has allowed 19 earned runs in his last 4 starts and had allowed 5 earned runs in 3 straight outings before being charged with 4 earned runs in his most recent one. The rookie is 1-5 this season and opponents have hit .298 against him on the road this season. This one is set up well for the Mariners to roll big at home. The Tigers are off a 1-run loss but this followed a stretch where each of their 6 losses came by a minimum margin of 4 runs! We will lay the 1.5 runs here with confidence. The Mariners most recent win was by 1 run but this followed a stretch where each of their 9 victories prior to that one were by 2 or more runs. Lay the run line in this one!

#216554 ASA PLAY ON Guadalajara +0.25 goals (-125) over LA Galaxy, Sunday at 10:30 ET - This one being played in Leagues Cup action. There is some goal line available at +0.25 in the marketplace if you lay the juice (-125 range) and we like the value with this as a draw is what Guadalajara needs to advance to the knockout stages. As for Los Angeles, they are already guaranteed of advancing. So this one sets up nicely for a rather disinterested LA club to go through the motions and Guadalajara can play a safe game as well and play for the draw. We do expect Guadalajara to do enough to get the win here but if they do not, then look for this to be a draw. Once Guadalajara gets that first one (we just can not see LA scoring first given the metrics for this one), they can really settle in and play a game characterized by a defensive-first mentality the rest of the way as they then look to just protect the lead in this one. We just do not see LA pushing the tempo too much in this one and the hungry underdog manages to at least get the much-needed draw here even if this one becomes a drab 0-0 or perhaps 1-1 affair. We will take Guadalajara on the goal line in this one.

#216526 ASA PLAY ON Monterrey PK (-145) over Pumas, Saturday at 10 ET - This one being played in Leagues Cup action. There is some goal line available in the marketplace if you lay the juice (-145 range) and we like the value with this as a draw would then become a push. We do expect Monterrey to get the win but if they do not, then look for this to be a draw. We just can not see Pumas getting an upset here. Once Monterrey gets that first one, look for the floodgates to open up for them in this one. We are getting line value here because Monterrey has underachieved recently but now all the chips are on the table and we look for this to bring out the best in them here. They have more talent and better attacking talent than Pumas and this will show up on the pitch in this one now that it is do or die time. This is when the elite stars shine! We will take Monterrey in this one.

#974 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge. The Astros have lost 3 straight games but are a perfect 3-0 since mid-May when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3+ games.  Houston was on a 43-25 run prior to this 3-game losing streak and we look for them to bounce right back here.  The Astros are starting Framber Valdez here and he is 5-2 at home this season.  He had a tough May but since then has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 10 starts.  The Pirates are starting Jake Woodford here.  He performed well on a minor-league contract after previously pitching with the White Sox earlier this season.  The trouble is, just like his starts earlier this season with the White Sox, Woodford has not performed well at the MLB level.  Woodford had a 10.80 ERA earlier this season for Chicago.  Also, last season for St Louis, Woodford had a 6.23 ERA in 15 games (8 starts).  Opponents hit .314 against him last season with the Cardinals and he got hit hard with the White Sox earlier this season too.  Now his debut with the Pirates and we expect his struggles to resume at the MLB level.  47 of 55 Houston wins have been by a margin of 2 or more runs.  18 of 26 Pittsburgh road losses by a margin of 2 or more runs this season.  Big edges all around for the home team here.  There is a reason Houston is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the home team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#960 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 2:35 PM ET - We have stayed away from this series after we got burned with a 1-run win in the first game of the series and we had the run line.  Laying the -1.5 runs on the run line to avoid laying big prices always carries with it the risk of getting burned by a 1-run win but we like our chances for a home blowout in the series finale here.  Texas is going for the sweep and Chicago has now lost 10 straight games!  Note that the White Sox have scored only 2 runs per game last 11 games and the last 10 games in this low-scoring stretch have all been losses.  56 of 77 Chicago losses this season have come by a multi-run margin.  Texas has scored 5 runs per game last 20 games and has won 11 of 15 games.  Rangers build off the momentum of 3 straight wins in this series punctuated by the huge 10-2 win yesterday.  We look for the Rangers to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings.  The starting pitching match-up is expected to be Max Scherzer versus Jonathan Cannon.  Scherzer is off a tougher start but it came against the league-best hitting Orioles.  Now he faces the league-worst hitting White Sox!  He takes advantage and dominates.  Scherzer is still getting back to full strength after missing time with injury but this is a guy who has dominated for many years and facing light-hitting Chicago will help him round back into top form!  As for Cannon, he is a rookie and is 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA in his road starts and opponents hitting .313 against him away from home.  He catches the Rangers lineup confident off the 10-run outburst yesterday.  The surge continues here in a home blowout.  Lay it!

#208009 ASA PLAY ON Independiente PK +110 over Instituto, Thursday at 8 ET - This one in  Argentine Primera Division action. This is a value spot for Independiente on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK +110 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Independiente but it is definitely nice to have that added value with this line. Independiente has gone undefeated in the last 5 meetings between these clubs with 3 wins and 2 draws. They have been the much better club from a defensive standpoint and, amazingly, have allowed only 3 goals in their 9 road matches this season! Instituto, on the other hand, has scored better than their opponents in this match but they have also allowed 1.3 goals per match when at home this season. We get excellent line value here with the better defensive team that also has owned this series in recent seasons. We expect a solid Independiente win here though we will grab the goal line at a pick'em so we have the added insurance in case this is a draw. Take Independiente Thursday evening.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -3.5 vs. Connecticut Sun, 7 PM ET - These are the two top teams in the Eastern Conference, but one of these teams has dominated the other when it comes to head-to-head action. The Liberty are 3-0 SU this season versus the Sun and have won 9 of the last ten meetings. In the most recent meeting, the Liberty were a 2.5-point favorite in Connecticut and won 71-68. Statistically there are many similarities as the Liberty score 86PPG and allow 77PPG compared to the Sun who score 80PPG and give up 72.5PPG. When it comes to Net Rating the Liberty hold the advantage 11.9 compared to 9.6. The one glaring advantage the Liberty have is their EFG% which is 52.8% and best in the league versus the Sun team that ranks 9th at 48.1%. This is obviously a matchup problem for the Sun who obviously have a great team overall, but just don’t have a configuration to beat this New York team. The Liberty are 9-1 SU their last 10 at home, 15-5 their last twenty and 23-7 SU on their home court their last thirty games.

#235758 ASA PLAY ON Canada +1 goal -106 over Uruguay, Saturday at 8 ET - We are confident that Canada has a chance for a big dog win here but we will grab the 1 goal just in case. We faded Uruguay with Colombia and we got the win with Colombia as a big dog even after they were down to 10 men. Of course Canada is not at the level of Colombia but, keep in mind, Uruguay had high hopes in this tourney and were on the way until that loss. As for Canada they have played better than expected in this tournament and are happy to be playing for 3rd place! Uruguay is absolutely disappointed to be here and they are also short-handed for this one as they are missing some solid players for this one. The emotional letdown also could lead to a truly lackluster effort from the favorite in this one. We take advantage! Take Canada +1 goal on Saturday evening.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Chicago Sky +10 at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - The Liberty are in one of the stronger ‘fade’ systems in the current WNBA, and that certainly factors into our decision to take the Sky in this setting. The Liberty are 10-1 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. The Sky are a respectable .500 or 5-5 SU away from home with a net differential per game of +0.6PPG. Chicago has lost by double-digits just once this season on the road and they already have a win in New York earlier this season. The Liberty are clearly one of the best teams in the league, but they continue to be slightly over-valued by the oddsmakers with their overall 8-11 ATS record. New York has faced one of the softest schedules in the league this season and are also coming off a huge win over Connecticut, while the Sky are off a loss. New York has the better overall offensive numbers, but these two teams are even defensively. We like the points and the Pooch here.

#969 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 9:38 PM ET - The Rangers have won 4 straight games by a combined score of 29 to 9! With B2B high-scoring wins under their belt in this 4-game winning streak, Texas is quickly building up confidence at the plate. For the downtrodden Angels, the opposite is true! Los Angeles has lost 7 of 8 games! Also, in the 5 most recent losses in this stretch, LA has been outscored by a combined score of 29 to 5! You can definitely see these two teams are going in opposite directions right now. Though the bullpen is not a strength for either team this season, the Angels bullpen ERA is the highest in the AL. Also, with Roansy Contreras on the mound in this one, that struggling bullpen is likely to be called upon early in this one! Contreras hasn't gone beyond the 3rd inning in either of his last two starts and has been hit hard plus has more walks than strikeouts in these two outings. Contreras is only expected to get another start here because the Angels are currently so short on starting pitching. This will again cause the Angels bullpen to continue to be over-used. As for the expected Rangers starter here, Max Scherzer has been building up strength and pitch count since he resumed and he could even go 7 innings in this one! Scherzer has been handcuffing hitters and, though his strikeout numbers are lower than usual he is inducing plenty of weak contact. Pop ups, foul outs, ground outs ... those types of outs have been on display as Scherzer gears up. We look for another solid outing from him here as the Angels struggles at the plate continue. Again, a TOTAL of only 5 runs scored for the Angels in their last 5 losses! The Rangers continue to work their way back up the AL West standings as the Mariners and Astros are each off B2B losses. It is a long season and Texas is starting to believe again as they are not yet out of the hunt for another strong finish to the season and then of course there is always then hope of another post-season run like last season's World Champion team. As Texas surges, the Angels continue to falter as this team is just nowhere near the lineup it once was without Ohtani (now with Dodgers) and Trout (still injured) and their pitching has also been a big concern all season long. Look for the Rangers to stay red hot here and win this by a margin. About that margin, 16 of the Angels last 17 losses have been by 2 or more runs. 17 of the last 19 Texas wins have been by 2+ runs! Look for Texas to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings. Lay it!

#907 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Braves Chris Sale is having a fantastic season.  The Diamondbacks Yilber Diaz comes in with high expectations based on his minor league success but, of course, pitching at the MLB level is entirely different.  This is his MLB debut and he is facing a very tough assignment having to face the Braves.  As for Sale, he had one unreal ugly start versus Oakland in his last 11 starts.  In the other 10 starts he allowed a total of only 9 earned runs!  Not only that, Sale has allowed - other than that start against the A's - just 22 earned runs in 95.2 innings this season.  He is 8-1 with a 1.53 ERA in night games this season and has held opponents to a .163 batting average in those 9 starts.  We have fantastic line value here with the Braves available at -115 by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line in this spot.  Also, in terms of bullpens here, the Braves are #1 in the NL with a 2.97 ERA.  The Diamondbacks are #25 out 30 MLB teams with a 4.44 ERA.  Arizona is 20-27 against teams with a winning record on the season.  The Diamondbacks are also 6-10 against NL East teams this season and 13-17 against left-handed starters.  Sale is a tough one so this is a really tough spot for Arizona as Diaz is likely to hit some stumbles in his first ever MLB appearance.  Atlanta off B2B wins over a strong Phillies team and the Braves have now won 14 of 23 games.  The Dbacks off B2B wins at San Diego but this followed losses in 7 of 12 games and Arizona has lost all 3 games with Atlanta this season plus 6 of last 8 dating back to last season!  Look for Atlanta to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings.  Lay it!

ASA top play on Chicago Sky +9.5 at Seattle Storm, 6 PM ET - The Sky just beat this Storm team on July 5th, 88-84 a +10-point underdog. We doubt they can win back-to-back games in Seattle but we do think they can keep this game close throughout. Chicago has won 4 of their last six games and the two losses came against the Aces and Lynx by 8-points each. Obviously, those two teams are arguably the two best teams in the W. Seattle had won 4 straight games, all at home, but three of those came against Dallas and Indiana who have a combined 12 wins. Seattle is 8-2 SU at home this season with a +11.9PPG point differential, but Chicago is 5-4 SU away from home and one of only 5 teams in the league with a positive +/- at +2.1PPG. The Sky are one of the best overall rebounding teams in the league and can limit the Storm’s second chance opportunities as they did in the previous game with a +10-rebound advantage. The immediate revenge angle doesn’t work in this game so let’s grab the generous number and the Chicago Sky.

#235745 ASA PLAY ON Brazil PK-120 over Uruguay, Saturday at 9 ET - This one in Copa America action. This is a value spot for Brazil on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK-120 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Brazil but it is nice to have that added value with this line. Uruguay has surprised but now faces a stiff step up in terms of level of competition. Even without Vinicius Junior, Brazil is the play here. In fact, his absence for this one is serving to give us line value because the betting markets have overemphasized the impact of his absence. Uruguay won the most recent meeting 2-0 but Brazil entered that one having won 4 straight meetings by a combined score of 11 to 2. While we certainly respect of Uruguay having this hot run through the tournament, we feel strongly that they have finally met their match here. Brazil gets revenge for October loss right here, right now. We expect a solid Brazil win here though we will grab the goal line at a pick'em so we have the added insurance in case this is a draw. Take Brazil Saturday evening.

ASA play on Minnesota Lynx -8.5 vs Washington Mystics, 8 PM ET - Minnesota was looking like the best team in the league with a 13-3 start to the season and a win over New York in the Commissioner's Cup, but have faltered in their last two games giving us value today versus today, Mystic. The Lynx have the 2nd best average point differential in the league at +7.9PPG, have the 2nd best Net Rating, are 1st defensively in Net Rating and allow the 2nd fewest PPG at 74.6. Minnesota puts up 83PPG at home this season with a 9-2 SU record and a +9.5PPG differential. The Lynx are coming off a pair of losses to the two best teams in the Eastern Conference (Connecticut and New York) and should rebound here with a great effort. Washington will be playing their 3rd straight road game after a win in L.A. and a 21-point loss in Las Vegas. The Aces were just favored by 16-points at home against the Mystic and now the Lynx are laying less than 10-points. Washington is 2-9 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -7.9PPG, one of the worst numbers in the W. The Mystic have the 2nd worst Offensive Net Rating in the league and will have a very tough time scoring against this elite Lynx defense. We expect the Lynx to get back into the win column here with a double-digit victory.

#235737 ASA PLAY ON Canada PK-115 over Venezuela, Friday at 9 ET - This one in Copa America action. This is a value spot for Canada on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK-115 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Canada but it is nice to have that added value with this line. Venezuela has surprised but off a 1-0 win over an outclassed Jamaica team. Canada had to face a tough Argentina team but then held their own against Peru (a win) and Chile (a draw). Considering this we see value here with many still being non-believers in Canada. There is a reason this match is priced about equal on Canada and Venezuela and the draw despite prevailing market opinion favoring Venezuela. In other words, don't let the line fool you here. Canada is going to surprise yet again. They have responded very well now under Jesse Marsch. They are bringing solid intensity and confidence is on the rise. We expect that to lead to a surprise win here though we will grab the goal line at a pick'em so we have the added insurance in case this is a draw. Take Canada Friday evening.

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings -4 vs. Atlanta Dream, 7:30 PM ET - Unfortunately, this line moved quickly with the Dream opening as the favorite before the Wings were immediately bet by the sharps and are now favored. We feel there is still enough value in Dallas and will back them at home here and predict a win by margin. Dallas looked much better than we expected in their previous game against the Mercury and look like they are adjusting to their new lineups. The Wings have been decimated by injuries this season but still have Howard (17.8PPG) and Ogunbowale (23.8PPG) who can carry the scoring load against a Dream team that struggles on the offensive end of the court. Atlanta is last in the W in Offensive Net Rating at 95.3, they are the worst shooting team at 40.4% and make the fewest FG’s per game at 26.3. Dallas can score with the 6th best team FG% in the league and rank 8th in Offensive Net Rating. The Wings are also the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the W while the Dream are in the bottom half of the league in defensive rebounding. Dallas has faced a tougher schedule in the West and face a Dream team that has just 5 road wins in their last 20 away from home. We will lay it with Dallas.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -2.5 vs. Connecticut Sun, 8 PM ET - This is another great spot to back a Western Conference team over an Eastern Conference team in essentially a pick’em game. These two teams have near identical records with the Sun checking in at 13-4 SU, the Lynx are 13-3. The difference is the Sun have played the easiest schedule in the W this season while the Lynx has faced an average schedule. When you factor in the Lynx’s point differential and their strength-of-schedule they have the best rating in the league by far. When looking at raw statistics, even after facing the much tougher schedule the Lynx have a better average point differential per game of +8.6PPG compared to +6.8PPG by the Sun. Minnesota also has the better overall Net Rating differential of the two teams. We also like the fact that the Lynx are coming off a loss in New York in their previous game and are now at home where they are 9-1 SU this season with an average margin of victory of nearly 9PPG. Lay it with the Lynx.

#928 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Cincinnati Reds, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge.  The Yankees are at home and have Luis Gil on the mound and facing the Reds and Graham Ashcraft.  Gil is 9-3 this season with a 3.15 ERA and he has held opponents to a .169 batting average!  Ashcraft, on the other hand, has been trending the wrong way and has been charged with 18 earned runs spanning 19 innings over his last 4 starts.  The Yankees are off a big 8-1 win Sunday and got their bats going again in the final 3 games of their series with the Blue Jays at Toronto.  The Reds are off a 2-0 loss and have lost 10 of 15 games and scored only 1.9 runs per game in the 10 defeats.  Cincinnati is 18-29 against teams with a winning record this season.  The Yankees are 44-20 against right-handed starters this season.  Of course there is plenty of solid reasoning as to why the Yankees are so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a strong spot and available without any juice on the price by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#914 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - The White Sox, even with some recent wins, still have the worst record in baseball and now they are on the road facing a tough Cleveland team.  Chicago is a paltry 8-33 in road games this season!  The White Sox are 17-43 when facing teams with a winning record!  The Guardians are 26-9 at home this season!  This is a complete mismatch but we get some line value here because Carrasco has an unimpressive ERA on the season for the Guardians.  The key with Carrasco is he actually has been trending well for the past two months with many solid outings and only two "off nights" in his last 8 starts which is skewing his numbers a bit.  Carrasco had a 3.00 ERA for the month of May and enters this start with 3 of his last 4 June outings seeing him allow only 5 earned runs in 16 innings.  Flexen starts for the White Sox here and he is 4-15 since the start of last season.  His ERA last season was 6.86 and his ERA this season is 5.13 thus far.  Chicago is 6-21 in divisional games this season.  11 of the Guardians last 13 victories have been by 2 or more runs and the White Sox have been held to 3 or less runs scored in 6 of last 9 road games.  Look for Cleveland to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings.  Lay it!

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Phoenix Mercury -8 vs Indiana Fever, 3 PM ET - We’ve had success backing Western Conference teams versus Eastern Conference opponents in recent wagers and will stick with that theme here. The top four teams in the West, which includes Phoenix, are equal or better than the top two teams in the East (Liberty and Sun). The Mercury got off to a slow start without their center Britney Griner but have since won 5 of their last seven games with the All-Star center in the lineup. In that 7-game stretch the two losses the Mercury have are to the best team in the league Lynx and the defending Champion Aces. The Mercury are 7-3 SU and ATS their last ten games at home and their last three wins have all come by 6+ points. Phoenix has played the toughest schedule in the WNBA this season and now have a positive Net Rating in their last seven games of +2.7. Indiana had a modest 4-game winning streak, but those W’s came against some of the worst teams in the league (Dream 2x, Mystics and Sky). On the season the Fever have the 10th worst average point differential of minus -7.2PPG. The Fever have some defensive deficiencies, ranking last in Defensive Net rating while allowing the most points in the league at 87.9PPG. We were just on the Mercury -10.5 against a similar Sparks team in which they won by 14-points. We expect the same results here and a double-digit win.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Phoenix Mercury -10.5 vs. LA Sparks, 10 PM ET - The Sparks have several injury concerns and aren’t deep to begin with, which has helped contribute to their current 6-game losing streak. Coincidentally, all 6 of those games were on the road as they are again tonight in Phoenix. L.A. is 1-9 SU away this season, 6-4 ATS in those games but most recently they have lost 6 of their last eight road games by double digits. One of those L’s came in Phoenix *68-87) against this Mercury team that did not have Brittney Griner in the lineup. The Mercury are a much better team with Griner and 4-2 SU in the games she’s played in this season. They have impressive wins in that stretch against Minnesota, Seattle and New York along with a close loss to Las Vegas. Those previously mentioned teams are some of the best in the league. The Mercury are also coming off a dreadful loss in Minnesota 60-73 after shooting just 31% overall and 21% from Deep. That poor shooting performance was against the best defensive team in the W and now they step down to face one of the worst in the Sparks. L.A. is 10th in defensive Net rating on the season and on this current road trip they are allowing 89PPG which is the 2nd highest PPG averaging in the league over that 6-game span. Phoenix has faced the toughest schedule in the league this season which has impacted their -3.0PPG average point differential. The Sparks have the 2nd worst average point differential in the league at -7.1PPG but have faced an average schedule. We like the Mercury here minus the points.

ASA WNBA top play on Seattle Storm -8.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 10 PM ET - We are slowly finding out the Western Conference is the stronger of the two Conferences with Minnesota, Las Vegas, Seattle and Phoenix all capable of winning the title this season. The East has New York and Connecticut, but they all fall significantly after that. The Commissioner Cup was a great example as the Lynx went to New York and beat the Liberty 94-89. Seattle got off to a slow start to the season but are starting to figure their new roster out. On the season they have a +5.0 Net Rating, in their last 10 games they are +6.8. They have faced the 2nd toughest schedule to date yet have an average margin of victory of +3.81PPG. The Storm relies on the 3rd best defense in the W that allows .966-points per possession. Indiana has faced a similar strength of schedule but has a negative point differential of -7.0PPG and ranks last in DEFF allowing 1.119PPP. In nine games against comparable opponents to the Storm, the Fever have lost by double-digits seven times. One of those blowout losses for Indiana came against this Storm team on May 30th, a 103-88 beatdown. Lay the points with Seattle.

#922 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - The Astros have won 6 straight games and have been on a long-term surge.  Houston has won 27 of 43 since their rough start to the season.  Houston has been rolling and they are enjoying being at home where they have won 8 of 10 games.  Look for them to continue to take advantage of hosting a Rockies team that year in and year out is one of the worst road teams in the league in recent seasons.  Colorado is 11-28 on the road this season and enters this game having lost 17 of 23 overall.  The Astros have 39 wins this season and 34 of them have been by at least a 2-run margin so we feel especially comfortable laying the run line here.  Houston won the first 3 games this season between these teams and those wins were by a combined score of 25 to 8.  The Rockies 52 losses this season have included 41 by at least a 2-run margin.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the majors.  The Colorado starter, Ryan Feltner, is in poor current form.  Feltner has allowed 18 earned runs in 21.1 innings spanning his 4 starts in June.  The Astros Spencer Arrighetti does not present a strong or even mediocre ERA based on his season numbers.  However when you look at his recent numbers, they have been skewed by one really bad start.  In his other 4 starts since late May, he has allowed only 5 earned runs in 19 innings.  He does not work deep into games but the Astros bullpen work is part of the reason they have vastly improved as the season has gone on.  Overall, in terms of team ERA the last 30 days the Astros have one of the best numbers in the majors while Colorado's team ERA is dead last.  The Rockies on the road have struggled again all season including losses in 7 of last road 10 games and they were outscored a combined 48 to 18 in the 7 losses.  Great spot to grab the value with a surging team at home and hosting a road-adverse foe.  This is especially true with the bet available at plus money by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge.  The Astros have won 5 straight games and have been on a long-term surge.  Houston has won 26 of 42 since their rough start to the season.  Now they are at home where they have won 7 of 9 games and they are hosting a Rockies team that year in and year out is one of the worst road teams in the league in recent seasons.  Colorado is 11-27 on the road this season and enters this game having lost 16 of 22 overall.  The Astros have 38 wins this season and 33 of them have been by at least a 2-run margin so we feel especially comfortable laying the run line here.  Houston won the first two games this season between these teams and those wins were by a combined score of 20 to 6.  The Rockies 51 losses this season have included 40 by at least a 2-run margin.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the majors.  The Colorado starter, Austin Gomber, is in dreadful current form.  Gomber has allowed 19 earned runs in 17.2 innings spanning his last 4 starts and 3 of the 4 outings were on the road so these numbers were not inflated because of Coors Field.  In fact, on the season, Gomber has been worse on the road than at home as he is 1-3 with a 5.05 ERA away from home.  The Astros Hunter Brown has been in top form of late while Gomber is winless with a 9.68 ERA in his 4 June outings!  Brown, on the other hand, has a 2.45 ERA in his last 9 starts spanning May and June!  Brown has dominated his last two starts with 0 walks and 15 strikeouts and only 1 earned run in 13 innings!  Brown and the Astros enter this game with confidence riding high and they are home.  The Rockies back on the road where they have struggled again all season including losses in 6 of last 9 games and they were outscored a combined 43 to 16 in the 6 losses.  Big edges all around for the home team here.  There is a reason Houston is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the strong value with a surging team at home and hosting a road-adverse foe.  This is especially true with the bet available at a modest, yet reasonable, price by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Lynx +6 at NY Liberty, 8 PM ET - The Liberty are clearly a contender this year and a solid team, but they also have some favorable statistics as a result of playing a weak schedule. In fact, the Liberty schedule is the second weakest in the entire W. They play in the Eastern Conference which isn’t as good as the West from top to bottom. They have three losses this season, two of which came against Western Conference opponents the Mercury and this same Lynx team. Minnesota is 13-3 SU on the season and have the best Net Rating in the WNBA, slightly ahead of this Liberty team, but again, the Lynx have faced the much tougher schedule. Minnesota has the #1 defense in the league and are 3rd in Offensive Net Rating. The Lynx have the best average point differential in the league at +10.6PPG, the Liberty are second at +9.0PPG. These two teams met in late May in Minnesota and the Lynx dominated the Liberty with an 84-67 win. We like Minnesota here and wouldn’t be shocked if they won outright.

#924 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over Texas Rangers, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Brewers to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Milwaukee is expected to send Freddy Peralta to the mound while Texas counters with Michael Lorenzen. The Brewers right-hander Peralta is off a great start in LA against the Angels but he had a rare poor outing in his most recent home start.  Prior to that Peralta was in fine form at home and he wants to make up for that rare unusually rough home start with a gem here versus the defending world champs.  Texas has definitely taken a step back this season and the Rangers are in for a tough one versus Peralta here.  Prior to the bad home start, Peralta had allowed only 12 earned runs in his 5 home starts this season and struck out 40 in 27.2 innings here at home in Milwaukee.  The Brewers bats will face a downward-trending Lorenzen here. The Rangers right-hander has managed to limit the damage in recent starts but the signs are there that he is regressing.  Lorenzen has had nearly as many homers allowed (5) as strikeouts registered (6) in his last 3 starts.  That is not a good sign and we look for the Brewers lineup to take advantage. Milwaukee has scored about 5 runs per game over their last 8 games and wins in 10 of last 12 home games with solid offensive production at home during this dozen-game stretch will add to the confidence level at the plate in this one.  All the edges point to the home team and another multi-run margin win here (10 of last 12 Brewers home wins by 2+ runs!). We are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +120 money range with the Brewers. Lay it!

ASA play on Phoenix Mercury +5.5 at Minnesota Lynx, 8 PM ET - In handicapping the Mercury, you can’t look at their full season numbers as Britney Griner missed the early part of the season and they really struggled without her. In their last five games with Griner they are 5th in the league in Net Rating and have won 4 of five games, including a win at home against this same Lynx team. Phoenix is on a 5-0 ATS spread run and are coming off 3 full days of rest so they should be fresh for this rematch. Minnesota has also won 5 straight games and are 3-2 ATS in this stretch, but 3 of those wins came against Atlanta, Dallas and Los Angeles who are really playing poorly right now. Grab the points with the dog.

#225493 ASA PLAY on Belgium -1 (-130) over Romania @ 3 ET - This is a very late release for us - about 2 hours before the game goes but we got the info we wanted and this one shapes up to be a blowout. Even though Romania won 3-0 in their opening match they lost the possession battle and they faced a Ukraine team that is not on par with this Belgium team. As for that Belgium team, being upset - the biggest upset of the first matches played - means they are fully focused on getting back on track here. Belgium will not hold back and this one should see the big favorites jumping to an early lead plus not taking their foot off the gas. Unfortunately for Romania, they are facing the wrong team at the wrong time. This one is all Belgium! Lay it!

ASA top play on Las Vegas Aces -6 vs. Connecticut Sun, 10 PM ET - With over 35-years of experience handicapping, sometimes your betting radar goes completely berserk when you look at the point spread of a game. That’s the case today when the Las Vegas Aces opened a -5.5-point favorite against the Connecticut Sun and were immediately bet up to the current number. The 13-1 Sun are getting this many points against the 7-6 Aces who are .500 at home this season. The Sun has some very favorable statistics as a result of playing one of the easiest schedules to date. They have played just 3 games against teams with winning records this season and one of those was a win against Phoenix who was without Brittney Griner. They split the other two games with a loss to the Liberty and a 1-point home win over Minnesota. The Aces have faced one of the league's tougher schedules this season with a shorthanded lineup until the other night. Las Vegas just got a key component back in the lineup with All-Star guard Chelsea Gray back from an injury. They have won 4 of their last five games with impressive wins over Minnesota and Phoenix in recent weeks. The Aces have one of the best home courts in the W with a 24-6 SU record in their last 30 and were 19-1 SU in the regular season a year ago with an average +/- of +17.6PPG. We like Las Vegas by double digits.

#225481 ASA PLAY ON Netherlands +1/2 goals -150 over France, Friday at 3 ET - France hurting with Mbappe breaking his nose in the prior game. He is a key to opening things up for the offense of France. Even if he plays, with a mask of course, we do not expect him to be 100% and this will absolutely impact the France attack. That said, Netherlands is a great value play here even at a price as the goal line at +1/2 goal means even a draw gets us the win here but we would not be surprised to see an outright upset. Netherlands scored late to eke out a win in their first game but really they were more dominant than the final score showed. That is leading to some value here with a highly talented Netherlands team. Take Netherlands on Friday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Mercury +5.5 vs. NY Liberty, 10 PM ET - This is a solid spot to fade the Liberty and back a Phoenix team that is better than their .500 record. New York is coming off a huge win over the Aces who beat them last season in the Finals and will have a tough time being focused here. If you look at the Mercury’s season statistics, they aren’t good. Phoenix has a negative Net Rating of -5.7, rank 7th in Offensive Net Rating and 11th in Defensive Net Rating. But when you look at their most recent 4 games with Griner back in the lineup they are significantly better with a +3.2 Net Rating. Griner’s impact is evident as she is scoring 22PPG, grabbing 7.8RPG and has 7 blocks on the season. With her in the lineup the Mercury are 3-1 SU with impressive wins over Seattle, Minnesota, Dallas and a close loss to Las Vegas. New York is playing their 5th road game in a six-game stretch making this a difficult scheduling situation. These two teams met on May 29th in New York and the Mercury played close in a 3-point loss without Griner. Don’t be shocked if Phoenix wins this game outright.

#921 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Super situational edges here because Jonathan Cannon is off a rare strong start.  He has been struggling in the minors this season and it was the same last season as well.  Prior to this strong start Cannon just had at Seattle he had been hit hard in each of his last 2 starts at the MLB level.  The Astros are expected to start Framber Valdez here and he is off a bad start but this followed 3 straight quality starts in which he allowed only 5 earned runs on 12 hits spanning 22 innings over these 3 starts.  The White Sox have the worst record in baseball this season and have won only 26% of their games.  The Astros started the season 7-19 but have since gone 26-20 which may not sound that great but it is much better than Chicago and also would equate to a 92-70 record over the course of a full season.  The point is that the Astros have been playing better and we have no hesitation in facing this 19-54 White Sox team!  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at a small price by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavericks humiliated the Celtics in Game 4 and we expect a bounce back here at home for Boston. The C’s were the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.4% overall and the 2nd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3%. In the first three games of this series, they shot 45% or better but in Game 4 they hit just 36% overall. Back at home we like Boston to find their range again considering they were the 5th best shooting team in the NBA at home at 49.4%. Dallas had struggled scoring in the first three games, failing to reach 100-points in all three. In Game 4 they exploded for 122 by scoring 30+ in three of the four quarters. We expect a regression in the Mavs shooting here after hitting 51% overall in Game 4 and 41% from Deep. The reserves for Dallas shot well above standards with a combined 11 of 18 from beyond the arc. Boston has an average +/- at home this season of +14.3PPG, best in the league and are 45-6 SU on their home floor. Congratulations to the Boston Celtics for their Championship tonight and we are betting they do it by margin!

#978 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET - The Dodgers won last night's game but only by a run but we are projecting a blowout here.  It was interesting to us that of over 100 pitches in his last start, only 7 were swinging strikes for Seth Lugo.  His strikeout numbers are down and his earned runs are up in recent starts.  In Lugo's last two for the Royals he has allowed 9 earned runs in 13 innings!  Lugo did allow 2 homers in most recent road start also.  The Dodgers counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto here and he has allowed only 19 earned runs in 71 innings ever since his 2nd start of the season!   Yamamoto has been fantastic and the Royals are 12-20 this season against teams with a winning record!  The Dodgers are 32-19 in night games this season.  Kansas City has lost 12 of 18 games and 11 of the last 15 losses have been by a multi-run margin.  LA, prior to yesterday, had delivered 31 multi-run wins out of their last 37 wins. We like the odds on a big win here for the home team given numbers like that.  There is a reason Los Angeles is so heavily favored on the money line even though the Dodgers barely snuck out the 1-run win last night and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at small plus money by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#967 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Boston Red Sox, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - The Yankees have the best record in baseball.  Even though the Red Sox are a .500 team they have padded their record against bad teams.  Against teams that currently have a winning record this season, Boston has gone an ugly 11-23 this season.  The Red Sox are 7-12 against left-handed starters and only 19-25 in night games this season.  The Yankees are 33-14 in night games and 41-16 against right-handed starters this season.  The Red Sox are expected to start right-hander Cooper Criswell and he has been charged with 11 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 games.  The Yankees are expected to start left-hander Carlos Rodon and he has been fantastic in 9 of his last 10 starts including 10 in a row!  In those 9 starts he has allowed only 12 earned runs on just 34 hits in 56 innings!  Yesterday was an 8-1 win for the Yankees and with consideration to all the factors above, we expect another big loss for Boston again here.  There is a reason New York is so heavily favored on the money line even though the Yankees are on the road here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun -6.5 at Dallas Wings, 1 PM ET - This is an early tipoff so be sure to get your action in as soon as possible. At first glance, this line may look high, but in reality, it’s not. We can make a great comparison with recent Wings games when they were at home +6.5 vs. Seattle and lost by 8-points and they were +9 at home against the Aces on June 5th and lost by 14. Connecticut is better than both of those teams in most key statistical categories. The Sun have the 3rd best average point differential per game in the league at +9.6PPG and rank 1st overall in Net Rating Differential at +12.7. Teams are having a tough time scoring on the Sun who have the best Defensive Net Rating in the league at 90.9 and they allow just 71.1PPG. In comparison, the Wings allow the 2nd most points per game on the season at 86PPG and rank 10th in DNR at 104. Connecticut is 2-2 ATS this season as a road favorite but they have covered their two most recent games against the Sky and Dream. Going back 10 games, the Sun are 6-3-1 ATS as a road chalk. Dallas is 0-3 ATS as a home dog this season with all three of those losses coming by more than today’s point spread. Lay it with Connecticut.

#958 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The A's have lost 5 straight games and have scored only 2.4 runs per game in those 5 defeats.  Now the Athletics visit Minnesota to take on a Twins team off a huge win yesterday in which they scored 17 runs!  Minnesota is surging with confidence right now at the plate as they also took advantage of a recent extra-innings opportunity to score 11 runs in that high-scoring victory.  The Twins have won 7 of 10 home games and have momentum on their side here.  Oakland is 11-24 on the road and 8-24 against teams with a winning record on the season.  The Twins have feasted on facing weaker teams as Minnesota is 24-11 when facing teams that do NOT have a winning record on the season.  31 of the A's 44 losses this season by at least 2 runs and this one will be as well.  Minnesota is starting Joe Ryan here and he has a 3.30 ERA this season.  Luis Medina expected to start for Oakland here and he had a 5.42 ERA last season and is just now getting back into the rotation for Oakland this season and got rocked in his most recent start which was just his 2nd outing this season.  With consideration to all the factors above, we expect another big loss for Oakland again here.  There is a reason Minnesota is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavs are obviously down 0-2 in the series and in dire need of a win. That doesn’t always mean the team down is going to win, but Dallas is in the Final for a reason and fueled by the home crowd will get a W here. Dallas has had two subpar shooting games in the series, and while some of that can be attributed to the Celtics great defense, we are betting a regression to the norm happens in Game 3. Dallas shot 47.9% on the season overall and 36.8% from beyond the Arc. In the first two games of the season, they are hitting just 44.5% and 24.5% from Deep. In the Playoffs the Mavs have shot 46.7% at home overall and 36.1% from the 3-point line. Boston is perfect on the road in the Playoffs but they also benefitted from playing the Pacers, Cavs and Heat who all had significant injuries. The Celtics had some incredible road results this season including a 33-14 SU away record, but the Mavs are no slouch at home with a 30-19 SU record. Dallas finds their shooting stroke and win Game 3.

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun -7 vs. Chicago Sky, 8 PM ET - Despite what Angel Reese or any other WNBA player might say, fans aren’t coming to watch them, which makes home court much less important. Unless of course Caitlyn Clark is there, then the place is packed. We make that point for this reason. These two teams met on May 25th with the Sun favored by -5 on this court and are now laying more. The Sun won that game by just 4-points so why the move up in the number? The big reason the Sky kept that game close was because of an abnormal shooting night from beyond the Arc at 47%. They won’t duplicate that performance considering they are the 11th worst 3PT shooting team in the WNBA at 28.9%. Connecticut is 10-1 SU on the season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Connecticut is 4th on Offensive Net Rating, 1st in Defensive Net rating. Chicago is 1-4 SU at home this season with the win coming against a bad Sparks team. The Sun are 3-0 SU on the road and after a close win here last visit, we expect a more focused effort here. Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +6.5 vs. Las Vegas Aces, 10 PM ET - The Lynx have been a big surprise this season and off to a 8-3 SU start to the season after finishing 19-21 SU a year ago. Minnesota has two losses by 1-point each and also a 14-point loss to this same Aces team. Las Vegas dominated the WNBA a season ago with a 34-6 SU record in the regular season but are a disappointing 5-4 SU this season. The Aces are a wallet busting 3-6 ATS in their nine games. Minnesota is 9-2 ATS with several impressive wins/covers against Seattle, New York and Connecticut. The Lynx has the third-best Net differential rating in the WNBA at +12.4, compared to the Aces at +4.4. Minnesota is far superior defensively with the 2nd best DNR of 91.2, versus this Aces team that has a Defensive Net Rating of 99.3 which ranks 7th. If we look at each team’s most recent 5-games the Lynx have superior overall statistics. Minnesota has a Net Rating of +19.4 (best in league) in their last five games, compared to the Aces at +1.9. Minnesota has an average +/- in their last five games of +15.4PPG, the Aces have a +/- scoring differential of +1.2PPG in their L5. The Lynx are hitting 45.5% of their field goal attempts in their last five, the Aces are at 40.5%. We like Minnesota to get a small measure of revenge here and potentially win this game outright.

#958 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The White Sox are starting Drew Thorpe.  Not only is the young rookie hurler making his MLB debut, he is skipping AAA ball to make it.  Thorpe has only made 38 appearances in the minors in his career and, though he has had good numbers, his stats were accumulated at the AA and single A levels in the minors!  Jumping all the way up to face major league hitters, and on the road no less, is not an easy task for a young pitcher.  The Mariners will take advantage and we also look for a strong start from Seattle starter Bryan Woo in this one!  Woo has absolutely dominated this season with a 1.07 ERA and a .139 batting average against in his 6 starts!  Woo has struck out 24 and walked just 2 and he has a 0.57 ERA in his 3 home starts this season!  Also, Woo has not allowed a single earned run in his 3 night starts - 0.00 ERA in 16 innings!  The White Sox are 5-27 on the road this season and 8-33 against teams with a winning record!  Also, Seattle is 22-11 at home and Chicago is 12-41 against right-handed starters this season.  78% of White Sox losses (39 of 50) have been by 2 or more goals and we expect another big loss for Chicago again here.  There is a reason Seattle is heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +7 at Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - We are banking on the Mavericks to come out with a better shooting effort to start this critical Game 2. The Mavs couldn’t buy a basket in the 1st quarter and a half and fell behind big to the Celtics in Game 1, trailing by as many as 29 points. Dallas was much better in the 3rd and 4th quarters where they actually outscored the Celtics 24-23 and 23-21. The Mavs shot just 42% overall and 26% from Deep which are both significantly lower than their season averages of 47.9% overall and 36.9% from the 3-point line. Dallas was 24-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss or 64.9% cover rate. We talked about how good the Celtics were at home in our Game 1 prediction, but let’s not forget that the Mavs were 34-17 ATS as a road team this season with a +1.2PPG point differential. We expect Dallas to make adjustments for Porzingis and play at a much higher level in Game 2. Grab the points.

ASA play on Seattle Storm +2.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx 7 PM ET - The Lynx have beaten the Storm twice this season by 13 and 9-points respectively. Those were the first two games of the season, and the Storm were still trying to learn how to play together with a new starting lineup after a few key offseason acquisitions. To say the Storm have figured it out would be an understatement as they’ve won 6 straight games, including a W at Las Vegas last time out. Both teams are 7-3 SU on the season with the Lynx holding a slight advantage when it comes to overall Net Rating of +11.3 compared to the Storm at +7.9. Seattle has a huge edge on both the O and D-boards with an overall Rebound Percentage of 51.4% versus the Lynx at 48.3%. The Storm have double-payback in mind and get a road win in Minnesota Sunday.

ASA WNBA play on Chicago Sky pick’em to +1.5 vs. Atlanta Dream, 5 PM ET - The wrong team was originally favored in this game as the Dream opened as a -1.5 point favorite, but that has quickly been steamed to the current pick’em line. These two teams have similar statistics including an OEFF (offensive efficiency) for both teams around .994 and a DEFF (defensive efficiency) near 1.000PPP allowed. Chicago has a better overall point differential per game of +0.1 compared to the Dream at -2.8PPG. When it comes to Net Rating the Sky hold and advantage there too with a +0.1 rating versus Atlanta’s -4.0. The big advantage the Sky have in this game is on the O-boards as they rank 2nd in the WNBA in Offensive Rebound Percentage compared to the Dream who rank 11th. Those second chance opportunities will be a huge advantage for the home team Sky. Chicago has made some big improvements this season and the Dream are just 3-7 SU their last 10 on the road. Back the host in this one.

#913 ASA PLAY ON Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 4:10 PM ET - Finally! The White Sox 14 game losing streak came to an end yesterday but don't look for Chicago to suddenly start building a win streak! In fact, the White Sox are just 2-18 last 20 games! Also, they send Nick Nastrini to the mound and he is 0-5 with a 9.74 ERA this season! Boston sends Brayan Bello to the mound for this one and he is 6-2 with a 4.36 ERA on the season. Bello has a 1.25 WHIP and Nastrini has a 2.07 WHIP so these two starting pitchers have certainly had widely varying results so far this season! Bello is 4-1 on the road this season and though he has given up a few more earned runs of late, he has remained quite tough to hit and the White Sox - yesterday notwithstanding - are typically dreadful at the plate. That is another part of the reason that Chicago's last 24 losses have included 21 by a margin of 2 or more runs. Of course there is a reason Boston is heavily favored on the road on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one. The Red Sox have 32 wins this season and 25 of them have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. Boston is 15-9 in day games this season and the White Sox are 6-21 in day games this season. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at a fair price by laying the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

#965 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 9:38 PM ET - The Angels are off of a surprising sweep at home over the Padres. However, Los Angeles entered that series just 7-21 at home this season and we are certainly not sold on this Angels team. They have a very weak lineup and even including their 3-game win streak have scored only 35 runs in their last 13 games - an average of 2.7 runs per game. The Astros had won 3 of 4 games and scored about 6 runs per game prior to a 4-2 loss versus St Louis. Houston has underachieved this season but there is still quality with this team especially in comparison with an Angels team that no longer has Ohtani (now with Dodgers) and is currently without Trout due to injury. We like this revenge spot for Framber Valdez as he was cruising along with a 6-1 lead at home when things suddenly unraveled in a crazy top of the 5th in which the Angels got to him for 7 runs with 4 of those coming with 2 outs in the inning. In his other 4 starts since early May, Valdez has allowed a total of only 6 earned runs. He will be tough here in this revenge spot as, when he is dialed in and focused, he is a tough one on the mound. The Angels counter with Griffin Canning here. He gave up only 3 earned runs but was tagged for 9 hits in his most recent home start. Canning had a 6.13 ERA in his 3 home starts in April. The fact is, Canning has struggled at times in his home starts this season and we look for that again here. As for the bullpens, Astros relievers have a 3.60 ERA this season while the Angels bullpen is one of the worst in the majors with a 4.71 ERA. There is a reason Houston is heavily favored on the road here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at plus money with the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on INDIANA FEVER -2.5 vs Washington Mystics, 7:30 PM ET - This is the strongest play we’ve made this young season as scheduling, along with several other key factors favor the Fever in this match up. Combined these two teams have just 2 wins this season. The Fever tough have played toughest schedule to date in the WNBA, but now 3 days rest coming into tonight. The Mystic are in a very bad scheduling situation playing 3rd game in four nights and second of a B2B. Washington lost at home last night to the Sky 71-79 despite Chicago shooting just 38% overall and going 1 of 14 from beyond the arc. The Mystic turned the ball over 24 times which is not unusual for them as they average 19.7 per 100 possessions, 3rd worst in the league.  Indiana's not as bad as their record because of the schedule. The Fever have an Offensive Efficiency rating of .978 compared to the Mystics .922. In terms of DEFF the Fever allowing 1.143 points per possession, the Mystic allowing 1.052.  The Fever’s defensive numbers are terrible, but they’ve faced New York four times this season who is the most efficient offensive in the W, they played Las Vegas 2nd and Connecticut 4th. Indiana is the better offensive rebounding team, shoots a higher EFG% and turns the ball over less. Washington is 0-3 ATS their last three as a home dog, just two covers in their last seven as a home pooch. Surprisingly, the Fever were a road favorite once this season in LA and won/covered. They are 3-1 ATS their last four laying points on the road. We like the Fever to get their 3rd win of the season by margin.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - In Game 1 we like the home team Celtics minus the points. Boston has been the best team in the NBA the entire season and won their home games by an average of +14.4PPG. The Celts were 21-7 SU versus top 10 teams in the league this season, 31-14 SU against top 16 teams. In comparison, the Mavs were 19-20 SU vs. top 10 teams, 32-29 SU vs, top 16 teams. Granted, the Mavs just rolled through the Western Conference and beat the two best teams in the Conference that had 50+ wins each, but in Game 1 of the Final we expect the host to get it done by margin. Boston is 43-6 SU at home this season and have been favored by less than this spread in just 4 of those games. In three of the four they didn’t have Porzingis and also didn’t have Tatum in one. Dallas is a fantastic road team but is very reliant on two players offensively in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The Celtics have multiple scoring options with all 5 starters capable of scoring 30 on any given night. Boston had one of the three best defenses all season long, allowing 1.116-points per possession in the regular season. Dallas was 18th in the league in DEFF, but also got significantly better after the trade deadline. The advantage the Celtics have is they typically have five players on the floor that can defend multiple positions. Dallas does not and we expect the Celtics to exploit Kyrie defensively. In the NBA Finals, the favorites are on a 12-6 ATS run and home chalks of -4.5 or more points are 20-10 ATS the last 30. In Game 1 at home, we like Boston by double-digits.

#908 ASA PLAY ON St Louis Cardinals -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - The Rockies are 8-23 on the road this season and went 22-59 the season before that and went 27-54 the year before that and 26-54 the year before that. Yes Colorado is a disastrous 83-190 in road games since the start of the 2021 season! We love the value here in fading the road-adverse Rockies as the Cardinals appear set to notch a blowout home win in this one. Sonny Gray gets the call for St Louis here and he is 4-1 with a 0.93 ERA in his home starts this season. Opponents are hitting only .167 against him in home starts this season! The Rockies counter with Cal Quantrill and he is 2-4 with a 4.68 ERA in night game outings this season. Last season he was 4-7 with a 5.24 ERA overall for the season. The Rockies have lost 5 straight games overall and are 2-7 in last 9 road games. The Cardinals are on a 14-7 run including wins in 5 straight home games and 7 of last 8 as a host. The Rockies are 1-8 against Central Division teams this season. 30 of the Rockies 40 losses this season have been by a multi-run margin and our computer math model shows this one has most likely a Cards win by 3 runs with a margin of 4 and 2 the next most likely outcomes. Look for the Cardinals to roll big here. Great spot to grab the solid value with the home team at a very fair price offered by laying the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

#964 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Yankees have won 6 straight games and 23 of 29. Like the Phillies in the NL, the Yankees have been the red hot team in the AL. Of course this is why the Yankees are a heavily priced home favorite here. The value comes into play in looking at the run line and that is available at +110 in the market place and is a great value when you look at recent margin of victory results for the Yankees. 21 of the Yankees last 22 wins have been by at least 2 runs! As the money line (in 190 range) shows you, the Yankees are likely to make it 7 straight wins here. As the 21 of 22 stat shows you, the Yankees are also likely to have that victory come by a multi-run margin! These teams matched up in Minnesota in mid-May and Chris Paddack faced Carlos Rodon in one of the games in that series. The Yankees and Rodon won that game 5 to 1. Not only that, Paddack allowed 12 hits in 5 innings and Rodon allowed only 6 hits in 6 innings. We look for dominance again in the rematch. Paddack has a .287 batting average against this season and has been in that range each of the last 3 seasons. Rodon has a .222 batting average against this season and it is .233 in his career. He is 7-2 this season and has been particularly dominant at home with a 3-0 record and a 2.13 ERA! The Twins have lost 11 of 20 including losing 6 of last 10 on the road. The Yankees have won all 4 games against the Twins this season and with big edges in this one, a home blowout is our call. We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a comeback price in the +110 range with the Yankees. Great spot to grab the solid value with the hot team at plus money with the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA WNBA top play on Seattle Storm -7 vs. Phoenix Mercury, 10 PM ET - This is a case of two teams heading in opposite directions as the Storm are playing well having won 4 straight games, while the Mercury are 1-4 SU in their last five. Phoenix has some holes in their lineup without Griner and Allen and it’s shown in recent results. The Storm on the other hand have found a rhythm with free-agent additions in Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike starting to gel. Seattle is 6th in the WNBA in offensive efficiency, Phoenix is 7th. The big separator is defensive as the Storm rank 3rd in the league allowing just .97-points per possession compared to the Sun who allow 1.060PPP which is 11th out of twelve teams. Even after a 1-3 SU start, the Storm still have a +4.2PPG differential and +1.7RPG plus/minus. Phoenix on the other hand have a negative average differential of minus -6.8PPG and get out-rebounded by -1.2RPG. Seattle is 4-1 ATS as a favorite in their last five games. Phoenix is 0-4 ATS as a Dog of +8.5-points or less in their last four. The Storm are also in a much better scheduling situation here as they have been off since May 30th while the Mercury are playing their 5th game in an 8-day span. Lay the points.

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings +8 at Minnesota Lynx, 7 PM ET - This line immediately grabbed our attention as our model suggests this number is higher than it should be in the Lynx favor. A great comparison can be made with a recent Lynx game in which they faced a struggling Phoenix team and were favored at home by this same margin. Dallas is significantly better than the Mercury right now as the Wings have a Net Rating of +1.4 compared to the Mercury’s -9.5. Dallas has covered 5 of six games this season and has a Net point differential of +1.3PPG. The Wings have wins versus Chicago, Phoenix and the Sparks and have closes losses to the Sun by 2-poitns and the Dream by 5-points. Their biggest loss of the season was by nine points, so they’ve been highly competitive in every game this season. Minnesota is coming off a blowout win over Mercury and are 5-2 SU to start the season. The Lynx has the 2nd best point differential in the WNBA at +8.7PPG and rely on their defense which is the best in the league in Defensive Net Rating. Dallas is more than capable offensively with the 4th best Offensive Net Rating and will be competitive in this game from start to finish.

#926 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-150) over Chicago White Sox, SuNday at 2:10 PM ET - Though we fell short with our run line play on the Brewers Saturday, we fade the White Sox again Sunday as they are now 15-44 on the season and have lost 10 straight games!  Milwaukee has won 8 of 11 games and scored an average of 7 runs a game in the 8 victories.  We expect the Brewers to stay hot here versus Chicago similar to how they punishing the White Sox bullpen in Friday's 12-5 win!  Milwaukee is having a solid season and is 12 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 6-29 this season when facing a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are the much better team and the White Sox have scored an average of only 2.6 runs in an 19-game stretch (3-16 record).  In terms of bullpens here, Milwaukee relievers have a 25-8 record and 1.22 WHIP.  White Sox relievers have a 4-16 record and a 1.49 WHIP - last in the American League!  Of course the starting pitching edge is massive with Peralta rock solid while Nastrini has a winless record and a 9.92 ERA on the season.  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and even having to play a -150 price range with the Brewers.  Grab the much stronger team at -1.5 runs!  Lay it!

#201202 ASA PLAY ON Atalanta -1 -115 over Fiorentina, Sunday at Noon ET - This one in Serie A action and it is the season finale for the league. We like the value of the goal line here. Atalanta is a huge favorite on the money line but we lay a small price to have them at -1 goal. The moods of these two clubs entering the season finale are drastically different. Fiorentina off disappointment in other European competition while Atalanta finished with great success with the win over Bayer Leverkusen. That combined with a season finale on home pitch and also a goal differential of 40 to 13 in home matches means the hosts are a great play here considering the motivational factors. These teams are at two different ends of the spectrum right now in terms of emotions. Fiorentina likely "mailing it in" for this season finale. Take Atlanta on Sunday afternoon.

#976 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+140) over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-43 on the season and have lost 9 straight games!  Milwaukee has won 7 of 10 games and scored an average of 7.6 runs a game in the 7 victories.  We expect the Brewers to stay hot here versus Chicago after punishing their bullpen in yesterday's 12-5 win!  Milwaukee is having a solid season and is 11 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 6-28 this season when facing a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are the much better team and are starting Robert Gasser here.  The rookie has a solid 1.96 ERA this season in his 4 starts and has had fantastic command with only 1 walk in 23 innings!  The White Sox are starting Garrett Crochet here and, though he has solid numbers on the season, he has been struggling at times on the road including allowing 13 earned runs in 19 innings in his 4 away starts since mid-April!  He also is highly unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense!   The White Sox have scored an average of only 2.6 runs in an 18-game stretch (3-15 record).  In terms of bullpens here, Milwaukee relievers have a 24-8 record and 1.24 WHIP.  White Sox relievers have a 4-15 record and a 1.48 WHIP - last in American League!  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a solid plus money return in the +140 range with the Brewers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a nice comeback price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it!

#224201 ASA PLAY ON Borussia Dortmund +1 -125 over Real Madrid, Saturday at 3 ET - This one in Champions League action and it is the big one as it is the Champions League Final. We like the value of the goal line here. Real Madrid is a big favorite on the money line based on their Championship pedigree but this Borussia Dortmund team has been very impressive. We will grab the value of the +1 goal on the goal line here as we can get involved at a reasonable price. As strong as Real Madrid has been, only 12 of last 35 games have been wins by a multi-goal margin. This is why there is such value in looking at the goal line here. This Borussia Dortmund club has been so strong that they will be tough to beat let alone to defeat by a multi-goal margin! Borussia Dortmund has just 5 losses by more than a goal in their last 57 games. We feel they match up well and can frustrate Real Madrid with strong defensive play. Take Borussia Dortmund on Saturday afternoon.

#928 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+130) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - We fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-42 on the season and have lost 8 straight games!  Milwaukee has won 6 of 9 games and scored an average of 7 runs a game in the 6 victories.  We expect the Brewers to stay hot here versus Chicago.  Milwaukee is having a solid season and is 10 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 8-31 this season when facing a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are the much better team and are starting Tobias Myers here.  The rookie has a solid 1.80 ERA this season in his 3 evening games - 2 starts!  The White Sox are starting Erick Fedde here and, though he has decent numbers on the season, he has been struggling on the road including allowing 5 earned runs in each of his two away starts this month!  He also is highly unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense!  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a solid plus money return in the +130 range with the Brewers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a nice comeback price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - Every game in this series has been tightly contested with margins of 3, 1, 9 and 5-points. Dallas has been a great road team all season long and Super Stars Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic won’t be fazed by the big game environment. The Mavs off a loss were one of the best spread record teams in the league this season with a 23-13 ATS record, and they won those games outright by an average of +2.7PPG. In the playoffs, prior to tonight’s situation, they lost 4 games and, in each instance, came back to win the following game. In fact, the Mavs won all four of those games on the road! The Wolves haven’t shot it especially well in this series at 46.5%, and it took a 53% night in Game 4, compared to the Mavs 42% to gain a 5-point win. Karl Anthony Towns has been in a shooting slump this series but made 4 of 5 in Game 4. We don’t expect him to have another game like that, as the previous 3-games he was 3 of 22 from beyond the Arc. At the end of the day, we trust Luka/Kyrie much more than any combination of Wolves players and expect another tight game that goes down to the wire. Grab whatever points are available.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +4.5 at Chicago Sky, 8 PM ET - These two teams are nearly identical statistically this season with Chicago holding a slight advantage in Offensive Net Ratings and Defensive Net Rating. The Sparks are the much better shooting team at 44.09% overall and 37.31% from Deep. Chicago shoots it at 42.06% from the field and 32.56% from beyond the arc. Underdogs have done extremely well this season in the WNBA with a 23-13 ATS record and the Sparks have covered 8 of their last eleven on the road. Chicago is a young team and just 1-4 SU their last five home games. Chicago hasn’t been a Chalk yet this season so grab the value with the Sparks.

ASA WNBA top play on Minnesota Lynx +4.5 vs. Las Vegas Aces, 8 PM ET - The Lynx have been a big surprise this season and off to a 4-1 SU start to the season after finishing 19-21 SU a year ago. Las Vegas dominated the WNBA a season ago with a 34-6 SU record in the regular season and are 3-1 this season, but they have been less than impressive. The Aces are 1-3 ATS with their only cover coming against the Fever who were in a horrible scheduling situation. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS with several impressive wins/covers against Seattle, New York and Connecticut. The Lynx has the second-best Net differential rating in the WNBA at +11.6, compared to the Aces at +7.5. Minnesota is far superior defensively with the best DNR of 91.2, versus this Aces team that has a Defensive Net Rating of 102.4 which ranks 8th. The Lynx has a +10.2PPG differential this season and have won both home games this season. Las Vegas will be playing their first road game of the year and are overpriced in this one.

#919 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 7:40 PM ET - Wednesday we fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-41 on the season! Chicago has lost 7 straight games and 11 of 12 games! Toronto is off to a slow start this season but they are getting closer to .500 as they already have taken advantage of facing the White Sox here and winning B2B games by a combined count of 12 to 3 to begin this series. The White Sox are a horrible 10-34 this season when facing a right-handed starter. The Blue Jays are the much better team and have now won 6 of 10 games and are showing signs of turning things around. Speaking of turnarounds, Alek Manaoh expected to start for the Jays here and he is off of a tough start but was victimized by a couple big hits and a couple of the runs were unearned. Manaoh has held opponents to just 10 hits in 19 innings in his last 3 starts. The White Sox are starting Chris Flexen here and he has been charged with 14 earned runs in 13 innings in his last 3 starts. All were tough outings and we expect more of the same here and he is unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense also! Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a road blowout is our call. We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and laying hardly any juice with the Blue Jays. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota T’Wolves +2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - Minnesota had a fantastic road record this season at 31-16 SU with the second-best average margin of victory at +5.1PPG. The Wolves have been a much better team on the road than at home in the postseason with a 5-1 SU record and a +8.1PPG differential. Dallas is 4-2 SU at home in the playoffs and were 29-18 SU during the regular season with an average +/- of plus 3.6PPG. We are betting the Wolves don’t have a shooting performance like they did in the first two games of this series at 42% considering they shot 48.2% on the season which was 10th best in the NBA. The Wolves were the 3rd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3% and Dallas was 18th in the NBA in defending the Arc. The Mavs were also 20th in the NBA in overall team FG% defense so expect positive regression from Minnesota in Game 3. There is positive support for teams down 0-2 in the Conference Finals and we expect Minny to rebound here with a win.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Atlanta Dream -3.5 vs Minnesota Lynx, 6 PM ET - This is a tough scheduling situation for the Lynx who are coming off a game last night against New York and had to travel to Atlanta for the second night of a back-to-back. This will also be their 3rd game in a four-day span. Two other WNBA teams have fallen into this scheduling scenario this season, and both have been blown out by double-digits. Atlanta is 2-1 SU this season with a road win against the Sparks, a close loss to Phoenix and a home win against Dallas. Minnesota is 3-1 SU with a pair of wins over Seattle, a road loss to Connecticut and a win last night versus the Liberty. Minnesota’s has the best defensive Net rating in the NBA but that number is somewhat misleading considering they played the Storm twice who are last in the league in offensive Net rating. Atlanta’s strength is their offense as they rank 5th in Net rating at 105.3 which is significantly higher than the Lynx at 95.9. Atlanta won 2 of three last year versus the Lynx and with the tough schedule situation we like the Dream to get another W here.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +1.5 vs Indiana Fever, 10 PM ET - Our model as the Sparks favored at home here so we will gladly take the points with the better team. Indiana is 0-5 SU on the season, the Sparks are 1-2 SU. Los Angeles was recently a 2-point favorite at home in their most recent game, which was a win over Washington, who we grade slightly better than the Fever. L.A.’s two losses have come against an improved Atlanta team and the Champs from a season ago on the road in Las Vegas. Indiana has faced a tough early season slate themselves and have lost two straight close games to Connecticut and Seattle. The Sparks will have the two best players on the floor in Derica Hamby who is averaging 22PPG, 13.7 RPG and 2.0SPG and has a pair of double-doubles this season. Kia Nurse is averaging 16.3PPG on 54.5% shooting overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. Her 3PT% is second best in the league among players with 6 or more 3PT attempts per game. L.A. has won 8 of the last ten meetings outright with the Fever and we like them to get a W at home tonight.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, Game 2, 8:30 PM ET - We like the Wolves to bounce back here after their Game 1 loss to the Mavs. The T’Wolves are 23-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 17-12 ATS with a double-digit average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Minnesota had the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.1PPG. The Wolves have lost back-to-back home games just 3 times this entire season so we’re betting it doesn’t happen here. In Game 1 the Wolves shot 43% overall and 37% from Deep. Those numbers are well below their season averages of 48.3% and 38.3%. Dallas on the other hand shot well at 49% overall but struggled from beyond the Arc at 24%. Minnesota was the best defensive team in the league this season and held opponents to 45.1% shooting which was 1st. in the NBA. The Mavs also enjoy a +8 rebound margin in Game 1 which is unlikely to happen tonight considering the Wolves had the 7th best rebound percentage in the league versus Dallas who was 23rd. Dallas gained home court advantage with their Game 1 win so a letdown here would not surprise us. Back the Timberwolves at home.

#911 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET - The White Sox got a win Tuesday but then resumed their losing ways yesterday (we had the Blue Jays for a win over Chicago). Now on Thursday we fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-35 on the season! Baltimore is off of being swept in their series at St Louis and being on the wrong end of series sweeps like that for the Orioles has certainly been rare in recent seasons. We expect the Orioles to bounce back here and get healthy at Chicago. Baltimore is having a solid season and are 11 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 6-23 this season when facing a team with a winning record. The Orioles are the much better team and have not lost more than 3 straight yet this season and that only happened twice the entire season last year! Baltimore is starting Garrett Rodriguez and he is 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA this season! The White Sox are starting Mike Clevinger here and he is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in his 3 starts this season. He has yet to complete 5 innings in any of his 3 starts and is unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense also! Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a road blowout is our call. We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a moderate (but fair) price in the -140 range with the Orioles. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs! Lay it!