ASA PLAY 8* ON New England +4 over Seattle, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is the first time in 64 games that the Patriots have been an underdog!  You read that correctly.  Now we understand the Pats don’t have Brady under center, however Cam Newton looked pretty solid last week and they still have Belichick in charge.  Another key here is Seattle’s home field advantage, which is easily one of the best in the NFL, is negated with no fans attending the game.  That’s huge in our opinion.  The Pats defense was lights out last year leading the NFL in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and PPG allowed.  They lost a few defensive players off that team but a number of key players are back and they looked very good again last week holding Miami to just 11 points on only 4.6 YPP.  Some may say “well that was against Miami so big deal”.  Let’s remember this Miami offense averaged 27 PPG over their final 7 a year ago.  Holding any NFL team to 11 points is solid.  Newton isn’t Brady.  We know that.  However might the Pats offense be a bit more diverse with Cam at QB this year?  They ran for 217 yards last week and Newton was 15 of 19 through the air.  If he can simply be efficient in the passing game, this offense could be very good.  Seattle topped Atlanta 38-25 but they were actually outgained 505 to 383.  As per usual, the Falcons put up huge offensive numbers but lose because of mistakes with 2 turnovers and 0 for 4 on 4th down situations in Seattle territory.  The Seahawks were just 2-5 ATS last year as a home favorite and didn’t win a single home game by more than a TD.  We love taking a top notch defense getting points.  Especially with this one sitting above a FG.  We like New England in this one.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 7:30PM ET

As we mentioned in our Game 1 wager on the Lakers, they have benefitted from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. Fatigue was the very obvious in the opener as the Nuggets were sloppy with the basketball, didn’t win the 50/50 balls and looked slower than the Lakers who scored 16 fast break points. The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 9 of eleven playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. Los Angeles led by 27-points in Game 1 and the final margin of 12 does not do justice to how dominating a win it was for L.A. I was surprised this line didn’t come out higher than it did considering the Clippers were favored by as many as 9.5-points in their series against the Nuggets. L.A. can matchup with the Nuggets at every position, but the Nuggets can’t contain Anthony Davis. We will lay the points again with Los Angeles.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +5.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Giants actually looked OK on Monday night. Their offense didn’t do much (lost 26-16) but that was expected vs a Pittsburgh team that just might have the best defense in the NFL. We had the UNDER in that game and cashed but here we like the Giants to play Chicago tight and possibly pull the upset. QB Jones played fairly well against a great defense minus his 2 interceptions (279 yards & 2 TDs). They had no running game but that should improve here vs a Chicago defense that allowed Detroit to run for 138 yards last week. RB Barkley will have a much easier time this week after his 15 carry, 6 yard performance last week. The Bears came from 23-6 down in the 4th quarter @ Detroit last week so they pulled off a huge division comeback win. The Chicago offense looked shaky at best with Trubisky at the helm for much of the game. He did lead them to the 4th quarter comeback but we cannot trust him as a significant favorite. The Giants defense actually impressed us last week holding what should be a very solid Pitt offense (with Roethlisberger back) to 349 yards on 5.5 YPP. They should improve on that this week vs a pedestrian Chicago offense. When these two met here in Chicago last year, the Bears escaped with a 19-14 win after trailing at halftime. We expect the Giants to be improved this year while Chicago we’re not so sure. The Bears have covered only ONCE in their last 7 games as a favorite (can’t trust Trubisky in this role) and NY is 10-2 their last 12 as a road dog. Giants have a decent shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points.

ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Game 3 Saturday We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss essentially ends this series with them down 0-2 already. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-11 SU record, 6-2 their last eight. Boston lost two straight games in the Raptors series then bounced back to win 2 of three so we know they’re capable of getting back into this series with a win here. Boston shot well in the last game and hit 50% from the field in Game 2 after a poor shooting night in Game 1. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 4-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. With a 2-0 lead the Heat may relax a little in this one and leave the door open for the Celtics to get a win and cover. Lay the points in a close Boston win.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Wake Forest +1 over NC State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a great set up for Wake in our opinion. The Deacons were whipped last week vs Clemson losing 37-13 to what might just be the best team in the country. Now they take a huge step down in competition facing an NC State team that finished 1-7 in ACC play last season getting outscored by 159 points in the process (average ACC loss was by 20 points). While WF was getting a game under their best vs Clemson, the Wolfpack still have yet to play. On top of that, they’ve had a number of Covid outbreak interruptions which has limited their already shortened practice time. They were supposed to open their season 2 weeks ago vs Virginia Tech but that game had to be rescheduled September 26th. That’s not a great situation for a team that struggled last year and is trying to learn new systems on both offense and defense as both coordinators are new this year. The entire NC State coaching staff has pretty much been revamped over the last 2 year which disrupts continuity. Just 1 assistant remains on staff from the 2018 season. While NCSU’s coaching staff has had to go through massive changes, WF head coach Dave Clawson has turned this program from a doormat into a winning program. He took a perennial loser and has now led them to 4 straight winning season. Coaching edge is definitely with Wake in this game. NC State QB Leary returns after starting 6 games last year but we’re not so sure that’s a positive. He completed just 48% of his passes and was 0-6 in those starts losing by an average score of 41-16. When Leary faced off against Wake last year, he struggled to say the least completing just 17 of his 45 pass attempts with the Deacs winning 44-10. He now must face basically that same defense with Wake returning 9 starters on that side of the ball. The Demon Deacons have now won 3 straight in this series including 2 years ago here in Raleigh when they were heavy underdogs. The Pack was favored 3 times at home in ACC games last year and lost 2 of those games outright. Going back to the previous season NCSU has actually lost outright 3 of the last 4 times they’ve been a home ACC favorite. No fans in the stands here takes away any home field advantage NC State may have had. We think Wake is the better team, in the better situation, with no long travel (schools are 100 miles apart), and should be favored here. We’ll gladly take the points with the better team with a game already under their belt.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7 over Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET The Lakers have benefited from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. How much do the Nuggets have in their tanks against a well-rested Lakers team? The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 8 of ten playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. The Nuggets have captured the attention and hearts of the public and are over-valued in this opening game. We are pulling for a great series here but feel the Lakers get a big win in the opener.

ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtic -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 2 Thursday 7PM ET We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss puts them in too deep a hole to get out of. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-10 SU record, 6-1 their last seven. The Celtics led by double-digits going into the fourth then couldn’t buy a bucket down the stretch in the 4th quarter and OT. Two of Boston’s big guns had horrible shooting nights as Tatum and Walker combined for 5 of 21 from the 3-point line. Expect a much better outing as Tatum shot over 40% from downtown this season, while Walking hit over 38%. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 3-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. Lay the points in a close Boston win.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, Tuesday 9PM ET We are value bettors and this line has us on the Clippers in this Game 7. The previous numbers on games in this series have had the Clippers favored by -8.5-points and line drop has us on them again here. Is there a better big game player in the NBA than Kawhi Leonard? We don’t think so. The Clippers have blown 16 and 19-point leads in the last two games and we don’t see this veteran team blowing another one in this elimination game. Granted, we love this Denver team and the heart they play with but the situation and pressure is magnified tonight and we don’t see the young Nuggets pulling off another upset. LA is 24-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 22-8 ATS. The Clippers were outscored by 13-points in the 4th quarter of the last game and blew a 7-point lead. We mentioned this the other day but the Clippers average margin of victory after a loss which is +14PPG. They’ll win by double-digits here and move on to face the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Denver +3 over Tennessee, Monday at 9:20 PM ET

With most NFL teams not allowing fans at least the first few weeks of the season that means there will be little to no home field advantage.  That is not the case here.  Even though Denver will not allow fans, they have a distinct home field advantage due to the altitude.  Especially early in the season and especially this year when teams have had just a 3 week training camp and no pre-season games to get into football shape.  The Broncos are a remarkable 33-4 SU at home in their first 2 weeks of the season partly due to the altitude advantage which will be even more enhances this season as we mentioned.  The Titans have been practicing at an altitude of 597 feet and now they must play in Denver at an altitude of 5,280 feet.  Expect the Titan players to struggle with fatigue in this game.  We think Tennessee comes into this season a bit over valued.  They made the playoffs last year on the heels of RB Henry and a career year from QB Tannehill.  We don’t expect Tannehill to repeat last year 70% completion rate (career high) or 6 interceptions (career low).  We also don’t think Henry will run wild again this year with defenses focused on him.  These two met last year here in Denver and the Broncos pitched at 16-0 shutout holding Henry to just 28 yards on 15 carries.  New Denver QB Lock breathed some life into this offense winning 5 of his 6 games as a starter after replacing Flacco.  The Denver brass picked up some key offensive weapons for him in rookie WR’s Jeudy & Hamler along with signing RB Melvin Gordon.  We like Denver as a home dog here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Rams +2.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET LA was in the Super Bowl 2 years ago and dropped back to 9-7 last year. A regression was expected so that wasn’t a big surprise. This is still a very well coached, solid team that we like as a dog here at home in their first game at the brand new SoFi Stadium. They actually may catch a break with no fans in the stadium as Cowboys fans travel as well as any and this very well could have been a home game like atmosphere for Dallas. The Cowboys are expected to be one of the top teams in the NFC but aren’t they always? The fact is, Dallas is almost always overvalued entering the season and we feel they are here laying a full FG on the road vs a playoff caliber team in the Rams. Dallas beat the have nots last year but they were just 1-6 SU vs teams that made the playoffs. One of the few decent teams they did beat last year was this Rams squad. IT was an embarrassing 44-21 loss for LA at Dallas and we expect they will have a chip on their shoulder here after that setback. The Rams were favored in that game @ Dallas and now they are getting a full FG at home just one year later. In week 1, games that have a total of 50 or higher (this one does) the underdog is 13-2 ATS. This system did lose on Thursday night with KC covering but we don’t see that happening here. The majority of wagers have come in on Dallas (60%) which is not a surprise at all, yet only 35% of the money is on the Boys. We like this situation and we’ll take the Rams +3.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -8.5 over Denver Nuggets, Sunday 1:05 PM ET - We are going to keep this analysis a little shorter than normal with football in full swing but the pick here is the LA Clippers. The Clippers just watched the Lakers end their series against the Rockets and will do the same to the Nuggets Sunday. LA is 24-5 SU this season when coming off a loss, 22-7 ATS. The Clippers were outscored by 13-points in the 4th quarter of the last game and blew a 7-point lead. We don’t anticipate that happening again here with a veteran team. Denver got 26-points from Jamal Murray in Game 5 after struggling to score in the previous two games but don’t expect a repeat performance here. The Clippers have multiple defenders at Murray which then puts a huge scoring onus on Nikola Jokic. The nail in the coffin for us in this wager is the Clippers average margin of victory after a loss which is +15PPG. They’ll win by double-digits here and move on to face the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals

ASA PLAY 8* ON NY Jets +7 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Too many points here in our opinion. The average line in this AFC East series over the last 21 meetings has been 3.5 points. Only 3 times in the last 21 meetings has the line been 7 or higher. We’re getting close here. Buffalo’s offense isn’t potent enough to be laying a full TD in a division rivalry game. They scored 20 points or less in 11 of their 17 games last year. Their QB Allen is the most inaccurate passer in the NFL. He was dead last in the NFL in completion percentage among starters and also threw the highest percentage of uncatchable passes. He’s facing a Jets defense that wasn’t talked about much last year but is very good. They ranked in the top 5 in YPP defense and top 7 in YPG defense. Very comparable numbers to the Buffalo defense which was considered one of the best in the NFL. In their 2 meetings last year the Bills scored a grand total of 23 points. Tough to cover a spread near 7 when you struggle to score. The Jets offensive numbers were bad last year. No doubt about it. However, when QB Darnold was playing, they weren’t terrible. They actually had a winning record (7-6) when Darnold was the starter averaging 20 PPG. In the 3 games he missed due to injury the Jets were 0-3 and barely averaged 7 PPG. We think the NY offense will do enough to keep this one close. Lastly, we love looking at divisional underdogs early in the season. They’ve been very successful. Especially if the game is in week 1 and that divisional dog did not make the playoffs last year (Jets) and they are facing a division team that did make the playoffs last year (Bills). In that situation the dog us 23-6 ATS dating back to 2003. We expect a down to the wire game here and we like the Jets plus the points.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Green Bay +2.5 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Because there are no fans allowed at this game, we have no home field factored in. Than means we have this game at a pick-em as far as the spread goes so the value is on Green Bay. The Packers waltzed into the dome last year, with fans, and absolutely dominated the Vikings. GB won 23-10 and held Minnesota to just 57 yards rushing & 83 yards passing. The Packers actually won both games last year vs Minnesota and with the Vikings player and coach turnover, we definitely like them again here. Minny lost nearly half of their defense from last season including their top 3 DB’s. On top of that, their best DE Hunter is out here with a neck problem. They also lost their top WR Diggs to Buffalo and replaced both coordinators. The OC Stefanski is now the head coach at Cleveland and the DC Edwards is now on the staff at Dallas. With no pre-season and a shortened training camp none of this is a positive for Minnesota. The main cogs on the GB coaching staff remained in place along with most of the starters. They won’t be learning anything new which helps with only a 3 week training camp. We expect Aaron Rodgers to try and prove a point, especially early in the season, as the Packers drafted QB Love as his eventual replacement. When Rodgers has extra motivation like this, he tends to be even better than he normally is, which is one of the top QB’s in the NFL. The value in the number is definitely with the Packers and we’ll side with Green Bay.

#403 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Coastal Carolina +7 over Kansas, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Coastal went into Kansas last year and upset the Jayhawks 12-7 as a TD underdog. While some may think KU will have extra motivation here after that loss, they are simply not good enough to be laying a full TD in this or really any game. Last year was no fluke. The Chanticleers played KU toe to toe and actually had more first downs, more total yardage, and nearly a 10 minute time of possession edge. They return 14 starters this year including many key players and we expect them to be better this season than they were last. Their record last year was just 5-7, however they lost 4 of those 7 games by 7 points or less so they could have easily had a better season. They ran the ball very well last year (35th nationally) and return 4 starters on the OLine along with top RB Marable who ran for 148 yards vs Kansas and over 1,000 on the season. We expect more of the same this year vs a Jayhawk defense that ranked 124th vs the run last year allowing 225 YPG. Kansas lost their QB, 3 starting offensive lineman, their 3 top defensive lineman and their best cover corner and 2 starting safeties. Their defense last year gave up at least 31 points in 8 of their 12 games and now with a number of new faces it’s tough to see a drastic improvement if any. The offense may take some time to gel as well as the QB’s vying for the starting job have attempted a grand total of 19 passes combined in their careers. Lastly, and something we see as a big but overlooked situation is the fact that CC was able to get in ALL 15 of their spring practices to get ready for this season while Kansas did not have a single practice in the spring. This is a KU team that has won just 6 of their last 59 games SU (vs FBS opponents) and now they're being asked to win this one by more than a TD. No thanks. We like Coastal Carolina here.

#427 ASA 8* PLAY ON Arkansas State +13 over Kansas State, Saturday at 12 PM ET Arkansas State is off a loss at Memphis last week by 13 points but they were only outgained by 78 yards in that game. It was a bit of a deceiving final score and they are particularly dangerous on offense because they have the option of two solid quarterbacks in Bonner and Hatcher. Both saw some time under center last week and, though RB Murray did not play last week, their top 3 running backs in that game totaled 136 yards on 25 carries and were led by senior RB Jamal Jones. The QB's combined to throw for nearly 300 yards and though Bonner threw two picks in that game a repeat is unlikely. Bonner had 10 TDs against just 1 INT last season. The fact is the Red Wolves have a very talented and veteran group on offense and that is what makes them especially dangerous as a big dog. Arkansas State is a hard team to put away and their experience factor gives them a huge edge here as they return one of the more experienced teams in the nation while Kansas State ranks as one of the least experienced FBS programs this year. The Wildcats are the better team defensively when comparing these teams. However, on the other side of the ball, Kansas State lost nearly all of its starting offense. They return a solid QB in Skylar Thompson but nearly all the other starters from last season's offensive unit are gone and that includes the entire offensive line! New offensive lines generally take awhile to play their best together and that will surely be the case here especially with how disjointed the 2020 offseason was for these players. Adding to that factor is a big but potentially overlooked situation and that is the fact that Arkansas State was able to get in 11 of their spring practices to get ready for this season while Kansas State did not have a single practice in the spring. This is a Wildcats team that is just 6-5 their last 11 games and only 2 of those wins came by more than 7 points (and 1 of those victories came by just 10 points) and now they're being asked to win this one by more than 10 points. This is asking a lot when one considers the Red Wolves also have the game in hand edge too as a result of playing last week. We like Arkansas State here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5 runs) over Boston Red Sox, Friday at 6:40 PM ET

Stop the  presses...the Red Sox (16-29 this season) have won 2 straight games!  All kidding aside it has been a very rough season for them and note that Boston is 1-5 this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games.  As you can deduce from that, the longest winning streak is 3 games for the Red Sox this season.  They have a chance to match that here but they won't.  This one is a complete mismatch which is why the Rays are priced as a more than a $2 favorite on the money line here.  The value is in the run line in what is set up perfectly to be a home blowout.  The Red Sox, prior to these back to back wins, were mired in a stretch that had seen them lose 20 of 28 games.  15 of those 20 defeats came by a margin of 2 or more runs and per our computer math modeling, this one will too!  Blake Snell is the Rays ace and he takes the mound off his very first loss of the season and with his team on a 3-game losing streak.  There is not better time to grab an ace and Snell should dominate Boston.  The Red Sox hitters that have experience against him have a combined .158 batting average with 0 homers and 2 RBI in 76 bats.  That includes holding Xander Bogaerts (Boston's most feared hitter) to just 3 hits in 23 at bats for a .130 batting average!  Snell went 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in the month of August before losing his first September start which was also his first loss of the season.  He struck out 8 in 5 innings and his "stuff" on the mound is just fine.  His counterpart tonight is Boston's Andrew Triggs and he is really more of an opener.  He is unlikely to pitch deep into this game and has a 9.95 ERA this season and had a 5.23 ERA in his most recent season pitched - 2018.  That means what matters here most, with Triggs not working deep, is overall pitching of the Red Sox.  That said, note that Boston is dead last in the majors with a 6.10 ERA on the year.  This one is all Rays!  Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they hammer the Red Sox pitching plus ride a strong start from Snell and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a short price by laying the 1.5 runs.  Lay it!  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday.

ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -3 over Milwaukee Bucks, 6:30PM ET

Giannis or no Giannis we are heavy on the Miami Heat in Game 5 Tuesday. I am going to start with coaching. Mike Budenholzer is clearly a great regular season and players coach but is not a tactician and isn’t great with playoff adjustments. It showed last year in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Raptors when he did not figure out a way to counter the Raptors “wall” defense against Giannis. His lack of game management has reared its ugly head again this year. I am thoroughly convinced if we flipped coaches in this series, it’s over already with the Bucks up 4-0. The NBA is about getting the matchup you can exploit, and Coach Bud just does not seem to figure it out. I am screaming at the TV for the Bucks to use whoever Tyler Herro is guarding to screen for Middleton or even Lopez to get a switch and a mismatch, but it did not happen until the final possession of OT. Herro made some big 3’s down the stretch in Game 4 but he’s a liability on defense. And why haven’t the Bucks used Brook Lopez in the post instead of having him stand in the corner for 3’s and NOT offensive rebound (7ft tall and 7 O-boards in series)? The coaching advantage for the Heat with Eric Spoelstra is glaring and unfortunately for Bucks fans, their season ends today. The Bucks got a huge jump start from Giannis in Game 4 before he went down with an injured ankle. Then Khris Middleton took over in the 3rd and OT periods but I’m not betting he can duplicate those numbers (36-points on 12 of 28 shooting). The Heat have averaged 1.140 points per possession against the Bucks which is the best overall O-efficiency numbers in this round of the Playoffs and makes the Bucks the worst defensive efficiency team in this round. Miami’s defensive numbers are obviously very good as they’ve held the Bucks offense (1.124PPP regular season) to just 1.080 points per possession. Miami has been outstanding off a SU loss this season with a 23-7 SU record and a winning margin of +7.4PPG. The Heat clearly have a matchup advantage over the Bucks as they’ve beaten them 5 of seven meetings this season and even though they had an average shooting night in Game 4, and the Bucks shot extremely well at 49%, they still almost won in OT. Jimmy Butler and company win this game rather easily and advance to face either the Celtics or Raptors.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -5.5 over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET In the series against the Blazers the Lakers averaged 1.149 points per possession which is 5th among playoff teams and better than their regular season numbers of 1.120PPP but against Houston in Game 1 of this series they hit just 42% of their FG attempts and scored 97-points. LeBron looked completely disinterested and the team couldn’t buy a 3-pointer as they hit 11 of 38 from beyond the arc. Off that horrible showing the Lakers will rebound here with a much better effort. Los Angeles was 12-8 SU off a loss this season with 8 of those wins coming on the road which is essentially the case here in the Bubble. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season and have been better in the Playoffs allowing just 1.059 points per possession. Houston surprisingly played really well in the opener after a grueling 7-game series against the Thunder, but the numbers suggest they don’t play as well in this Game 2. Houston allowed 115PPG in the regular season this year which was 22nd out of 30 teams in the NBA. The Rockets allowed 50PPG in the paint this season which ranked them 23rd in the league while the Lakers were 2nd in the league in scoring in the paint at over 52PPG. Los Angeles will look to pound the ball inside against the Rockets in Game 2 and take advantage of a front line of Davis, McGee and Howard. Frank Vogel is a great coach and will adjust here including LeBron on the block a few times and take advantage of his size in the post. Lakers bounce back here with a double-digit win.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Army West Point Black Knights (-) over Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET: Game #242

This is a tough spot for Middle Tennessee.  This will be the first time that coach Rick Stockstill's team has faced an option attack in 7 years.  That was a bowl game loss to Navy by a margin of 18 points.  Making the situation even more troublesome for the Blue Raiders here is that they were originally game planning for two other opponents before finally becoming aware in mid-August that their first game would be against the Black Knights.  In other words, why worry about preparing for an option attack if you're not expecting to face one?  But now just a few weeks before the season opener you find out your team is opening the season at West Point and facing the option attack of Army!  This is unlikely to go well for Stockstill's team.  Middle Tennessee allowed 459 yards per game last year and that ranked them 114th out of about 130 in the nation.  Now that sub-par defense has to contend with an offensive attack they are not familiar with facing.  On the other side of the ball, the Blue Raiders are solid offensively but some running back transfers and on offensive linemen opted out of the season.  So Middle Tennessee has been impacted (scheduling and opt outs) significantly in more ways than one heading into this season.  The Blue Raiders will be facing an Army defense that returns the majority of its starters and which allowed 23 points and only 178.9 passing yards per game last season the latter of which ranked the Black Knights 5th in the nation!  One final note about Army's offense is that though they have a new QB this season it is a senior, Christian Anderson.  He did play in 6 games last season and started 1 and ran for over 400 yards.  Anderson is a perfect fit for the Black Knights option attack.  Lay the points with Army as a small home favorite in early afternoon action Saturday.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -6.5 over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET This Game 1 situation is remarkably like the Clipper/Nuggets series as this Los Angeles team has been off since Aug 29th while the Rockets are off a grueling 7-game series with OKC and have little in the tank for this game. The Lakers took care of a Portland team that was in the same boat as the Rockets are now, exhausted and off a demanding series of games, so do not expect a close game in this opener. After losing Game 1 versus Portland the Lakers ripped off 4 straight wins by 23, 8, 20 and 9-points. Houston was taken to seven games against OKC and needed a last second defensive play (yes, I said defensive) from James Harden to preserve the win. Off that win expect a letdown here. There was some concern about the Lakers offense in the NBA restart as they had the second worst offensive efficiency numbers in the 8 Bubble games, but the Playoffs have been a different story. In the series against the Blazers the Lakers averaged 1.149 points per possession which is 5th among playoff teams and better than their regular season numbers of 1.120PPP. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season while Houston was 14th but the Rockets have been better in the restart. LA is 14-6 SU this season when playing with 2+ days rest while the Rockets are 6-9 SU when at a disadvantage in rest and those losses have come by an average of -7.1PPG. The rested Lakers have the edge in this opener and our model predicts a 14-point win.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Vancouver Canucks Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Vegas Golden Knights, Friday at 9 PM ET

Thatcher Demko has stepped in between the pipes for the Canucks in the absence of Jacob Markstrom and what a job he has done.  He is the reason there is a Game 7 in this series and there is no way we're stepping in front of this Vancouver hockey club right now.  They believe. They absolutely believe they can win and head to the Western Conference finals.  Confidence goes a long way toward winning games and right now Demko and the Canucks have momentum and confidence on their side.  Even with getting heavily outshot in each of the last two games (and really throughout this series) Vancouver is still standing because of Demko stopping 90 of 91 shots in his two starts.  Per our computer math model this will be a very tight game likely decided by a single goal and so we're going to lay the price to have the +1.5 goals on our side with the Canucks in this one.  Vancouver got a big boost with some late scoring in Game 6.  Do not underestimate the importance of that as the Canucks now feel they can get it done in the offensive zone too.  Plus, despite two capable netminders in the form of Lehner and Fleury, how confident can those guys be the way this series has turned on a dime?  This Game 7 could be epic.  We look for a tremendous game that could even go into OT which is why we're grabbing the goal and a half with the team that has momentum on their side too!  Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and getting a very fair price, currently in -130 range) with Vancouver is the way to play this one.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET At first glance you would think this number is way too high but in reality, it isn’t, especially given the circumstances. The Nuggets are in a tough spot here having just played a physically and mentally draining 7-game series against the Jazz. Denver was down 1-3 to Utah, then won three in a row which were all tight games. Jamal Murray was sensational in the series with 50, 42, 50 and 17 points in the final four games but he also logged over 40 minutes in each of those. Nuggets All-Star center Jokic also played more than his season average in minutes in the series and now on one day rest they face a Clippers team that has been off since Sunday. After a small scare in the first few gams of their series against the Mavs the Clippers took care of business by winning Games 5 and 6 by 43 and 14 points, respectively. In fact, their four wins over Dallas all came by 8 or more points which is obviously close to tonight’s spread. The Clippers are solid when they have a rest advantage over their opponents with a 28-18 SU record the past two seasons. How important is rest you ask? There are only 10 teams in the league that do not have winning records when playing with two or more days rest the past two seasons. These two teams met in the Bubble with the Clippers winning by 13. During the regular season L.A. had two more victories over Denver, each by double-digits (29 & 10). These two teams have remarkably similar numbers offensively in the Bubble and Playoffs, but the Clippers hold a HUGE advantage defensively where the Nuggets rank dead last in defensive efficiency ratings in both the Playoffs and Bubble.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-) over South Alabama Jaguars, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #236

This line was as high as a -15.5 but now has fallen to as low as a -13 as of Thursday morning.  We're going to take advantage of this line falling below the key number of 14 and get involved with a Golden Eagles team that is primed for a blowout win here.  Southern Miss finished last season poorly as they lost their 3 last games by a combined 50 points!  That being said, the Eagles have been anxiously awaiting a chance to erase the bitter taste of last season's poor finish and finally it has arrived.  South Alabama should prove to be the perfect "punching bag" here for Southern MIss to take out their frustrations relating to last year's poor ending.  While it is true that the Jaguars return 15 starters from last year's team that may not be such a good thing as that Jags team won just 2 games last season!  Look for the Golden Eagles to take advantage of a South Alabama pass defense that was a significant weakness last season.  Also, the Eagles did lose 2 years ago as a home favorite against a Sun Belt opponent and they have been reminded of that heading into this game.  In other words they won't make the same mistake twice and, per our computer math model, a win in the 3 TD range is expected in this one.  Lay the big points with Southern Miss in what should be a home blowout in evening action Thursday.

ASA play 8* on: Toronto Raptors -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 6:30PM ET It’s do-or-die time for the defending Champion Toronto Raptors as they trail the Celtics 0-2 in this series and must win this game tonight to have any chance of advancing. Even though the Raptors lost Game 2 (off a loss), Toronto is a solid 37-15 SU when coming off a loss the past two seasons and they win those games by an average of +6.8PPG. The biggest difference in the series thus far has been the horrendous 3-point shooting of the Raptors who have hit under 29% from beyond the arc in both games. That is not normal as they shoot over 37% on the season and are the 6th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. When you break down the statistics these two teams are eerily similar in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the Playoffs and Bubble games with the Raptors holding a slight advantage in D.E.F.F in the eight Bubble games. Toronto was in this same scenario a year ago when they were down 0-2 to the Bucks before winning four straight so they know it can be done. We will back the desperate Raptors in this game and a win here get’s them back into the series.

ASA top play 10* on: Milwaukee Bucks -5 over Miami Heat, 6:30PM ET The computers and numbers have us on the Bucks tonight in a bounce back situation, off a loss and desperate for a win. Milwaukee has been “money” off a loss with a 13-5 SU record this season and a 35-9 SU run since the start of 2018. In the last two years when coming off a loss the Bucks average margin of victory is +10.7PPG and they cover the spread by nearly +3PPG. Both teams shot well in the opener, but the Heat were plus +5 in offensive rebounds and had 3 less turnovers. Jimmy Butler had a huge game for Miami with 40-points on 13 of 20 shooting while making 12 of 13 free throw attempts. League MVP could not match those numbers 18-points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists but turned it over 6 times and missed 8 free throws. The Greek Freak is a fierce competitor and will bounce back here with a huge stat line in Game 2. Last year in the playoffs in a similar situation the Bucks lost the first game of the series against the Boston Celtics then bounced back in Game 2 to win by 21-points. In the first round against Orlando the Bucks lost Game 1 then beat the Magic by 15 in the second game. Milwaukee was the number one or best defensive efficiency team in the NBA in the regular season allowing just 1.029 points per possession and Miami produced 1.150PPG in Game 1 which was an aberration based on season statistics. Expect a return to normal here and the Bucks get a double-digit win in Game 2.

ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET With this being an elimination game, you would expect most bettors to back the Thunder and the dog here but not us. The Rockets are a completely different team when they have dynamic guard Russell Westbrook in the lineup, and even though his numbers were not significant in the Rockets Game 4 win, he still had an impact. Westbrook’s ability to get to the rim and in driving lanes forces defenders in slightly instead of being in the gaps which allows Rocket shooters another split second to get a shot off. Expect more minutes and production from Westbrook tonight against the Thunder. OKC thought they found a way to contain James Harden with rookie Luguentz Dort defending him in Games 3 & 4 and causing problems for the Rockets scoring machine. In Game 5 the Rockets adjusted, hit Dort with better angles on screens which freed up Hardin who scored 31-points on just 15 shots. Dort then proved to be a liability on the offensive end of the floor where he missed 13 of 16 field goal attempts. The Rockets have been significantly better defensively in the playoffs and the Bubble allowing less points per possession than they did during the regular season while maintaining an offensive efficiency that is averaging 1.118PPP against OKC. We recognize the Thunder have solid support as an underdog and when off a loss, but the Rockets have too many scoring options for the Thunder to overcome.

ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic +13.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 3:30 PM ET - Can the Magic win this game today? Sure, but will they, no. They can however cover the spread with the generous number. After winning Game #1 the Magic have been beaten by the Bucks by 15, 14 and 15 points. In the last game of this series the Bucks won by 15-points but needed to outscore the Magic by 12 in the 4th quarter. Milwaukee had the best overall average margin of victory this season at +10.1PPG which is a tremendous number, but it is still not enough to cover this spread. In the eight Bubble “regular” season games the Bucks average point differential was 0.3PPG and in this series their MOV is 8PPG. Orlando had a negative point differential of minus -1PPG and only 14 of their 43 losses this season have been by 15 or more points. The Bucks haven’t been great as a double-digit favorite this season with an 18-19 ATS record and given the circumstances they could be resting starters late in this game which would make for a potential back-door cover. Grab the points with Orlando.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET The Clippers are off of a poor showing and a last second loss in Game 4 to the Mavs and are now tied 2-2 in this first round series. NOBODY has been better than the Clippers when coming off a loss this season with a 21-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). The Mavericks have played well in the series and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. His buzzer beating step back 3-pointer is only the start of his legendary status in the NBA for years to come. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 36% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 9 of their last ten when coming off a loss. We are betting Paul George finally shows up and Kawhi Leonard shoulders the burden in this crucial game for the franchise.

ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -6 over Indiana Pacers, 6:30PM ET Sometimes when it looks like two even teams on paper and all the stats are equal, but one team continues to win, it is a match up issue. That is clearly the case in this series as the Heat have beaten the Pacers three straight and four of five in the Bubble. The only game the Pacers won was a throw away game as the seedings were set. Miami has a +10PPG margin in the three wins and we cannot imagine them not winning again by double-digits in this elimination game. Going back before the break the Heat are 6-1 SU this season against the Pacers, covering five of the seven. Miami holds edges in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in this series and have gotten balanced scoring throughout this first round match up. In Game #3 the Heat had four players score 20+ points, six in double-digits. Indiana doesn’t have as many scoring options as Miami and just can’t keep pace with the Heat. If it ain’t broke, then don’t fix it. Heat win again.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 3:10 PM ET

The red hot Rays have won 13 of 15 games.  The Jays got 2 runs in the top of the 8th to make it a 2nd straight 1-run win for the Rays in this series.  But prior to that, 7 of the Rays last 8 wins had been decided by a margin of 2 or more runs.  We are anticipating a blowout type win here that is similar to the types of wins in that  8 game stretch which had an average margin of victory of 4 runs per game.  Indeed, Tampa Bay's lineup has improved as the season has gone on and they continue to get good pitching.  Blake Snell gets the start here for the Rays and he is 2-0 in his 3 August starts and has held opponents to a .178 batting average this month.  The left-hander is battling back from a disappointing 2019 season and showing signs of the form that saw him go 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA in 2018! Coincidentally Snell held opponents to a .178 batting average that season.  Look for his August dominance to continue here.  The Jays, prior to this series, had 11 losses on the year and 8 of those came by a multiple run margin.  Toronto sends Tanner Roark to the hill for this one.  The veteran right-hander is struggling this month.  Roark allowed 7 earned runs in 7 innings in his first two August starts.  He then followed that up by allowing 9 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start.  Roark allowed just 2 runs (1 earned) in that start but had to escape some big jams.  He won't be so fortunate the way these Rays are swinging the sticks right now and they get him into trouble early and, unlike the Orioles against Roark, they will cash in on those scoring chances!  The Rays are averaging 6.3 runs per game their last 13 games.  Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they ride momentum and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a short price by laying the 1.5 runs.  Lay it!  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs in afternoon action Monday.

ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +3.5 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET

If you’ve been following ASA for any length of time then you know we are numbers bettors not teams bettors which has us on Denver here today. With no home court advantage and all the games being played on a neutral court the lines shouldn’t fluctuate too much from game to game but this series has seen a significant move. The Nuggets were favored by -4.5 points in Game 1 of this series but are now a 3-point dog here. That’s a huge swing in value and has us on Denver here. The Nuggets were blown out in Game 3 and now trail 1-2 in this series which makes this a desperate situation for Denver. Denver has been fantastic when coming off a loss this season with a 19-9 SU record and are 39-23 SU in that role the past two years. Since the restart the Jazz have an average point differential of minus -3.1PPG which is barely better than the Nuggets -4.8PPG and clearly not a big enough separation to cover this spread. The Dog has covered 4 of the last six in this rivalry. Grab the points!

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET

All the experts and oddsmakers had the Clippers as one of the three favorites along with the Bucks and Lakers to win it all in 2020 and they were not wrong. This team has been built for a Championship and now they are off a poor showing and a loss in Game 2 to the Mavs. That’s very important for our wager today as the Clippers are the BEST team in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 20-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). Great players respond when their egos have been bruised which will be the case Friday for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard who didn’t expect to be 1-1 in this series right now. The Mavericks played well in the first two games and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 45% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. We haven’t even mentioned the value in the line on this game as the Clippers have dropped a few points from the first two games. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 8 of their last nine when coming off a loss. Easy call with L.A.

ASA play 8* on: Denver Nuggets -1.5 over Utah Jazz, 4PM ET This series is tied one-to-one with the Jazz coming off a big Game 2 win. That sets up our wager here as the Nuggets have been exceptional off a loss this season with a 19-8 SU record and an average margin of victory of +4.6PPG. Going back two full seasons the Nuggets are 39-22 SU off a loss, +4.9PPG. Utah relies heavily on Donovan Mitchell to do a lot of the scoring with 57-points in the opener then 30 in Game 2, but he cannot sustain those types of numbers as this series progresses. The Jazz were a solid shooting team on the season at 47.1% which was 6th in the NBA but in Game 2 they shot remarkably well at 52%. We do not foresee those shooting statistics here against a Nuggets defense that will be highly motivated here off a poor showing. Granted the Jazz get Conley back here, but Denver has more scoring options with Jokic, Murray and Porter Jr. After the line move, the value and situation clearly favor the Nuggets in this game. Bet the Nuggets.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -6.5 over Portland Trailblazers, Thurs 9PM ET The Blazers captured Game 1 by 7-points winning 100-93 and now lead the series 1-0 which makes this a must win for the Lakers. The oddsmakers have fallen into the Blazer trap here and have posted a number that reflects public opinion of Portland. The Lakers offense in the Bubble has been horrendous and is showed again in Game 1 of this series when L.A. attempted 18 more field goals in the opener, had 5 more total rebounds and were +12 in offensive boards but still lost. The Lakers shot just 35% against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as Portland ranks 28th on the season in defensive efficiency ratings and has been worse in the Bubble allowing 1.209 points per possession. The Lakers made just 5 of 32 3-pointers in Game 1 and shot just 35% for the game which is drastically lower than their season average of 47.8% which was best in the NBA. In other words, let’s bet what the “norm” is instead of the abnormal results of Game 1. It was apparent to us as we watched the game how deliberate the Blazers were which was not how they played during the regular season (13th in pace of play). Portland was taxed physically and dictated a slower tempo with the Lakers knowing if they could keep it close, they have more playmakers at the end of the game and could steal a win. The fatigue of their pre-playoff run was obvious to us and will play a bigger part in this outcome. The Lakers had the 5th best overall average point differential in the NBA this season at +5.8PPG while Portland was negative at minus -1.1PPG. The Lakers have not been great as a favorite, but the Blazers have been especially poor as a dog with a 10-20-1 ATS record this season when getting less than 10-points. The Lakers Championship run hangs in the balance, and you can bet LeBron and AD show up here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: San Diego Padres (-1.5 runs) over Texas Rangers, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET

The Rangers have lost 4 straight and are 3-7 on the road this season. The Padres have won 3 straight and are 7-4 at home this season. San Diego is also riding the positive momentum of a huge walk-off win last night that left the Rangers stunned! After tying the game late on a homer the Rangers were able to force extra innings. They then took a 1-run lead in the top of the 10th only to watch the bullpen implode and the Padres won it on a Manny Machado grand slam in the bottom of the 10th! Couple the hot versus not factor and the clubhouse mood for each team (particularly after last night's finish) and you have a great situation to be taking a look at San Diego in this one. The Padres are a pricey money line favorite here with good reason. Not only because of all of the above but also the pitching factor here. Dinelson Lamet has been every bit of a young ace for the Padres. The San Diego right-hander throws plenty of heat and then keeps hitters off-balance with a devastating slider. That is a lethal combo and Lamet has a 1.59 ERA in his 5 starts this season. He has piled up 36 strikeouts in 28 and 1 / 3 innings and opponents are hitting only .152 against him. On the other hand, the Rangers Kyle Gibson is a very hittable pitcher. He has allowed opponents to hit .278 against him so far this season and has allowed high opponents BAA in 3 of the past 4 seasons (.275, .292, .298). Last season Gibson had a 5.45 ERA in night games. Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they ride momentum and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a plus money return by laying the 1.5 runs. Lay it! Bet the San Diego Padres -1.5 runs in evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Oakland A's (-1.5 runs) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET

The A's have been one of the best teams in MLB this season but got blasted at Arizona yesterday.  Now the series shifts to Oakland and it is payback time tonight.  The Diamondbacks are only 5-7 on the road this season.   The Athletics are 9-3 at home this season.  Arizona's Merrill Kelly has pitched well early this season but, keep in mind, this has been in rather limited action.  He has only made 2 road starts and last season on the road he was 6-9 with a 5.42 ERA in his road outings.  The A's are starting Jesus Luzardo and he is off his worst start of the young season.  We like taking talented quality pitchers off a rough start and he is now back home where the southpaw is undefeated in 4 outings (2 starts) and has compiled a 2.60 ERA.  Opponents are hitting just .217 against Luzardo in his home games and he has fanned 17 in 17 innings!  The A's were 52-29 at home last season so they are a combined 61-32 in home games the past two seasons combined.  The Dbacks have a losing record on the road when combining last season and this season and the A's are a pricey money line favorite here with good reason.  Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout in this bounce back spot and the best value is with utilizing the run line to get them at a plus money return by laying the 1.5 runs.  Lay it!  Bet the Oakland A's -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -5.5 over Portland Trailblazers, Tues 8PM ET Noise! There has been a lot of noise surrounding the Blazers and their run in the Bubble to make the playoffs. There has also been a lot of talk about how poorly the Lakers have played in the restart and we are betting they’ve heard it and respond here. Let us start with the Blazers who expended a ton of energy to get here and played in several big, emotional games to capture the 8th seed. Damian Lillard has been sensational, and the Blazers offense has put up some impressive numbers in the Bubble but that changes here. The Lakers have the 3rd best defensive efficiency rankings in the NBA allowing just 1.063 points per possession. That is significantly better than the Blazers defense that is 28th in the league in D.E.F.F. Much has been made of the Lakers struggle on the offensive end of the floor in the Bubble games as it’s been atrocious but on the entire season they are 11th in offensive efficiency and much better than they’ve showed in these meaningless 8-games which had no bearing on their seeding. The Lakers had the 5th best overall average point differential in the NBA this season at +5.8PPG while Portland was negative at minus -1.1PPG. The Lakers haven’t been great as a favorite, but the Blazers have been especially poor as a dog with a 9-20-1 ATS record this season when getting less than 10-points. This will be a statement game for the Lakers and we predict a double-digit win.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +4.5 over Miami Heat, Tues 4PM CT This will be an old fashion Eastern Conference battle with two teams that do not like each other at all. Specifically, TJ Warren for the Pacers and Jimmy Butler for the Heat have had a few past transgressions and at some point, in this series it will come to a head. These two teams are very even when it comes to efficiency ratings and differentials with the Heat holding an advantage on the offensive end of the floor but the Pacers being better defensively. Miami had an average point differential of +2.9PPG on the season while the Pacers were plus +1.9PPG. When a dog of 7 or less points the Pacers are 14-6 ATS this season and they have covered 6 of the last eight meetings with the Heat. This game will go down to the wire and the points are the way to go.

ASA play 8* on: LA Clippers -6 over Dallas Mavericks, Monday Aug 17th 9PM ET - The novelty and newness of the Bubble games has worn off and now the games are for real and we feel the Clippers flex their muscle in this opening round playoff game against the Mavs. The Clippers are our pick to win the NBA Finals this season while the Mavs are a great storyj, they are still a season or two away from being a serious contender. These two teams met in the Bubble already with the Clippers winning by 15-points with Lou Williams playing limited minutes and no Pat Beverly. In the three regular season meetings the Clippers won twice by 15-points and once by 3-points in Dallas. The win in Dallas came without Paul George in the lineup. The Clippers are 44-14 SU (34-24 ATS) as a favorite this season with an average margin of victory in those games of +8.9PPG. The Mavericks are 11-11-1 ATS as a dog this season so nothing special and in this situation the young Mavs will struggle. These two teams are similar in terms of offensive efficiency, but the Clippers are far superior on the defense end of the floor. Our analytics are projecting a double-digit win by the Clippers.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Arizona Coyotes, Monday at 5:30 PM ET

The Avalanche are nearly a $2.00 favorite on the money line here so the value, if you want to play Colorado (like we do!) in this one, is definitely with utilizing the puck line.  By laying the 1.5 goals with the Avs, you can get a plus money return in the +150 range.  We look for a dominating win from Colorado here.  They outshot the Coyotes 51 to 21 in Game 3 but ended up on the wrong end of a 4-2 final.  Game 2 was a 3-2 Avalanche win that easily could have ended 4-2 and Game 1 was a 3-0 Avs win.  The point is that expecting this game to end up decided by a margin of 2 or more goals is certainly not expecting too much and we love the big plus money being offered with one of the best teams in the NHL looking to bounce back off a loss.  Again, the Avalanche dominated that game but fell short on the scoreboard.  In Monday's Game 4 it is payback time.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a fantastic return, currently in +150 range) with Colorado is the value play here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET

The Phillies have struggled early this season but the Orioles are certainly no powerhouse and this is the ideal situation to back the home team and expect a rout.  Philadelphia is nearly a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line but on the run line we get them down to a price in the pick'em range and there is plenty of support for expecting a win by 2 or more runs here.  4 of the Phillies 5 wins this season have come by a margin of 4 or more runs!  When they win they generally win big.  Also, Philadelphia has lost each of the last two games against Baltimore and the Phillies are 2-0 this season when they enter a game off back to back losses and each of the 2 wins came by a blowout margin.  Jake Arrieta has been a stronger starter at home than on the road since coming to the Phillies and he is healthy again and coming off a dominating performance against the Braves at Citizens Bank Park.  He'll be opposed by Thomas Eshelman who, though drafted by the Astros, actually came up through the Phillies farm system.  But in 2018 at AAA Lehigh Valley he went 2-13 with a 5.84 ERA.  In his major league appearances (12 games, 5 starts) Eshelman has a 6.02 ERA.  The way Arrieta is dealing right now and the way Eshelman has struggled, as well as the situational factors here, this one sets up to be all Phillies!   Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in afternoon action Thursday.

ASA top play 10* on: Phoenix Suns -7 over Dallas Mavericks, 4PM ET How about the swing on the line in this matchup as these same two teams met earlier in the Bubble and the Mavericks were a 6-point favorite but are now a 7-point dog. But the situation for both teams is drastically different at this point in time as the Mavs are locked into the 7th seed and Phoenix still has a shot to get in. To put this as delicately as possible, Dallas would be stupid to play their Superstars here or other starters as health is key to make a long playoff run. We don’t expect to see Doncic or Porzingis for the Mavs against this red-hot Suns team Thursday. Phoenix is 7-0 in the Bubble and have played incredible basketball in the restart with Devon Booker leading the way. Phoenix has an average point differential of +11.3PPG in the Bubble which is the best overall number in the league and has won five of their seven games by 7 or more points. Are we betting a bad line here? No given the circumstances.

ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -8 over Indiana Pacers, 4PM ET You know the old saying, “when something looks to good to be true, it isn’t”. That’s the case with this line on the Rockets vs. Pacers game as the line is much higher than it should be and is attracting public money on Indiana. In true contrarian fashion we will bet opposite and play on the Rockets. We feel the Rockets desperately want to hold on to the 4 or 5 seed and avoid the two Los Angeles teams and the red-hot Nuggets in the first round. A win here essentially locks up the 4/5 seed for Houston. The Rockets played yesterday and were embarrassed by the Spurs with James Harden on the bench. The NBA’s leading scorer is expected to suit up today for the Rockets and can literally carry this team like he’s done so often in the past. The Pacers have several starters listed as doubtful today with Turner, Oladipo, Brogdon questionable and TJ Warren listed as out. That tells us the Pacers aren’t as interested in this game as they are Friday’s against the Miami Heat who they will likely face in the first round of the Playoffs. The Rockets hold slight advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the Bubble games and will squeak out a double-digit win here.

ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +5.5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET This is an interesting number considering how well Denver has looked in the Bubble games compared to how bad the Lakers have played. Let us examine this number a little closer. The Lakers were just favored by minus -5.5 points against the Pacers and Thunder in recent games and lost both to teams’ inferior to the current Nuggets. The Washington Wizards have not won a game in the Bubble and have been horrendous offensively with a 1.031 points per possession efficiency rating. Believe it or not, the Lakers have been WORSE than the Wizards on the offensive end with an OEFF of .977PPP. That can’t be said about a Denver offense that is 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the five Bubble games at 1.176 points per possession. The Nuggets have gotten a huge scoring boost from Michael Porter Jr. who is averaging over 25PPG and 10RPG in the Bubble. They also got Jamal Murray back from injury who paid immediate dividends in the Nuggets win over Utah with 23-points, 12-rebounds and 8-assists. And we haven’t even gotten to Nikola Jokic who continues to play at a very high level. The Lakers are 2-4 SU in their six games in the restart and are mainly concerned about staying healthy for the playoffs. The Lakers season point differential is +6.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. In the Bubble games they have a negative differential of -7.2PPG second to last of the teams still playing. This Denver team is going to be a dangerous out in the Playoffs and the Lakers just aren’t engaged at this point in time. Easy call with the Underdog here.

ASA top play 10* on San Antonio Spurs +3 over New Orleans Pelicans, 3:00PM ET We like the Spurs in this extremely important game for both teams as they battle for a spot in the Western Conference playoffs. San Antonio has gone to a small-ball lineup which has resulted in a 3-2 start in the Bubble games. The Spurs were also extremely competitive in both losses, getting beat by Denver by 6-points and Philadelphia by 2. San Antonio was just a 2-point dog to the red-hot Nuggets and are now getting 3-points from a struggling Pelicans team. New Orleans is 2-3 SU in the Bubble games and one of the wins came via the Wizards who have a negative differential in the Bubble of -10.5PPG. The Pels other win was against a struggling Memphis team that is 1-4 in the restart. In the last five games for each team the Spurs have a positive point differential of +2.2PPG while the Pelicans are negative at minus -3.8PPG. San Antonio has the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers in the restart, which is significantly better than the Pelicans who are averaging 1.089 points per possession which is 17th among the Bubble teams. The Spurs were +3.5-points in New Orleans in the regular season and won by 4-points. Now they are getting essentially the same number on a neutral floor and playing better than they were back in January. Easy call with the underdog here.

ASA top play 10* on Dallas Mavericks +5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30PM ET

The line on this game is telling you who to bet as the number is not what it should be. Milwaukee was just favored by -9.5 over a hot Miami team, -19 against the Nets and even minus 5 against Houston and are now laying -5.5 to the Mavericks? That’s an indicator that Vegas knows something we don’t so we will be betting Dallas plus the points. The Mavs have locked up a playoff berth but can also move up in the standings and avoid a possible first round match up with a Los Angeles team. Milwaukee struggled in a pair of losses to Houston and Brooklyn then rebounded with a big win over Miami so the sense of urgency to win has subsided for the Bucks off that win and having the #1 seed clinched in the East. Milwaukee is just 3-7 ATS their last ten games against the spread. Dallas is 1-3 SU in the four Bubble games but two of those losses were by 4 or less points. The Mavs are -7-1 ATS their last 9-games as a dog of 5 or more points. Don’t be surprised if Milwaukee rests starters here and the Mavs win outright.

ASA top play 10* on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET We like the Raptors here minus the short number as they have been much better defensively than the Celtics in the Bubble. Toronto is allowing just .967 points per possession which is best in the league since the restart, which is not a surprise considering they are 2nd overall in the league in D.E.F.F. On the season the Celtics are 5th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.073PPP, but in the Bubble they are giving up 1.154PPP which ranks them 16th out of 22 teams. Boston has had some gaudy offensive numbers in their four games since the restart and are coming off a 149-point outburst against the Nets, and they put up 128 two games ago against the Blazers. Those teams are in the bottom four of the current 22-team league in the Bubble in defensive efficiency ratings. Against Miami and Milwaukee (similar to Toronto in terms of defense) the Celtics offense wasn’t nearly as impressive in two losses. The Raptors have the best overall point differential in the restart at +9.7PPG and are 3-0. Prior to the break the Raptors had won four games making this a 7-game winning streak so why wouldn’t we back them here at this price. The Celtics are expecting Kemba Walker back for this game but that can be a negative too as flow and timing will be disrupted. Play Toronto here.

ASA play 8* on: Portland Trailblazers -3 over Denver Nuggets, 8PM ET We are going to play against the Nuggets here and bet the more desperate Blazers in this matchup. The Nuggets could move up to the #2 seed in the West and have some incentive to win games in the Bubble but Portland is fighting for the 8th or 9th spot in the West and a change to make the post season. Portland is 0-3 against Denver this season but that was without center Jusuf Nurkic who can match up against the Nuggets Jokic, who has 69 points, 37 rebounds and 17 assists in the three meetings. Portland also catches the Nuggets off a game yesterday and they will be playing their 3rd game in four days. Teams without rest 2-5 SU in the Bubble games and a few of losses have not been close. That is to be expected as players were off for several months and are still finding their way back to game shape. What makes it especially tough for the Nuggets is their lack of three starters/rotation players as Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Will Barton all continue to miss time. We feel the pointspread is a clear indicator on who to bet in this matchup as Portland was an underdog to Houston and Boston in their last two games but are now favored over a hot Denver team? We will bet how Vegas doesn’t want us to bet and lay the points with Portland.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -4 over Dallas Mavericks 6:30PM ET This could be a potential first round matchup in the playoffs and we expect the LA Clippers to make a statement in this contest. We like backing elite NBA teams when they are off a loss which is the case here after the Clippers lost last time out to the Suns. Both teams are a disappointing 1-2 SU in the restart but the Mavs are off their first win over a struggling Kings team while the Clippers are off a loss as we mentioned before. Luka had a monster game against the Kings with a plus 30/20/10 game but that was against a Kings defense that isn’t nearly as good as this Clippers unit that allows just 1.073 points per possession which is 4th best in the NBA. Lou Williams will be back in the lineup for the Clippers to provide scoring off the bench and give the Clippers that added advantage they’ve been missing. The Clippers are 16-5 ATS off a loss this season with an average winning margin of 15.4PPG and 41-17 SU since 2018 when coming off a loss winning those games by 6.6PPG. Los Angeles has covered 4 of the last five meetings including a win most recently in Dallas by 3-points without Paul George. Lay the points with the Clippers.

ASA 10* top play on: New Orleans Pelicans (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 6:30PM ET - This is a critical game for both teams who are fighting for a playoff berth in the West and are 0-2 in the NBA re-start. Memphis is coming off a game yesterday against a big game versus the Spurs and will be un-rested in this matchup. The Grizzlies have been particularly good against the spread in this scheduling situation but that was before the long layoff. The Pelicans lost their opener to the Jazz in a close game then allowed the Clippers to make 25 of 47 three-pointers in a 23-point loss. These two teams are eerily similar in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and point differential. New Orleans was on a 6-1 ATS run on the road leading up to the Covid break which is significant considering these games in the bubble are essentially road games (neutral) for both teams. Conversely, the Grizz were 3-6 ATS their last nine road games and the three covers were against some of the league’s worst teams at Brooklyn, at Atlanta and at Washington. These two teams met in January and the Pelicans won by a combined 38-points and shot well in both games by hitting over 48% from the field. When it comes to shooting the long ball, the Pelicans shoot it better and defend it better than the Grizzlies do and that will be a huge factor in this outcome. Lay the points in a Pelicans double-digit win.

ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic (-) over Sacramento Kings, 6PM ET

Orlando went into the Covid-19 break with an 8-4 SU record their last twelve games and had covered 8 of their last nine games. In their first game of the restart they handled the Nets 128-118, but it could have been much worse as they led by as many of 30-points in the game at one point. The Magic had a great shooting night at 53% from the field, 35% from beyond the arc and 89% from the FT line. Orlando averaged just 106.7PPG on the season but put together a great performance Thursday and we expect that trend to continue here against the Kings. Sacramento is the 20th ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.118 points per possession. The Kings defense did not show up against the Spurs in the opener when they allowed San Antonio to shoot 53% from the field, 44% from beyond the 3-point line. The big advantage the Magic have here is their defense that is 9th in the league in defensive efficiency and they will put the clamps on the Kings offensive. The Magic have 8 straight covers on the road or neutral floors and are the bet in this match up.

ASA top play 10* on: Utah Jazz +1.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 3:30PM ET

This is an interesting line with several solid indicators to put us on the Jazz in this match up. Everyone just watched the Jazz play an extremely poor game against the Pelicans and don’t want anything to do with Utah here. We do! The Jazz turned it over 20 times in the opener against the Pelicans and shot just 24% from beyond the arc. We are betting we see the Jazz shoot it much better tonight considering they were the second best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 38.1% and turn it over on average 15 times per game. We also like the advantage the Jazz have with a game under their belt in this unusual environment. Utah is slightly better than the Thunder in average point differential this season (+3.2PPG vs. 2.5PPG), 9th in offensive efficiency compared to 14th for OKC and both are essentially even in defensive efficiency allowing 1.092 points per possession. Utah got balanced scoring with six players in double-digits, three of which were 20 plus. We like OKC, especially their road numbers but this situation clearly favors a Jazz team that have covered 7-straight as a Dog. Bet the Jazz in this one. 

ASA top play 10* on: Portland Trailblazers (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 4PM ET

In this day game showdown, we like the Blazers minus the short number. After a disappointing season, the Blazers have a great opportunity to right the ship in this 8-game mini-series and nab the 8 seed in the West. Standing in Portland’s way is the Memphis Grizzlies who currently hold the 8th seed in the West and a 3 ½ game lead over the Blazers. Portland will have the best player on the floor in Dame Lillard along with a host of veteran talent that has a ton of playoff experience. The Blazers can get scoring from several players on the roster including Carmelo Anthony and CJ McCollum along with Jusuf Nurkic who is back from injury. Memphis has an incredibly young roster and rising star in Ja Morant but the pressure in this 8-game season will be much more than the regular season games. Portland was much better in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.128 points per possession which is 7th best in the league. Memphis is 20th in O.E.F.F. at 1.094PPP. The Grizz hold the advantage on the defensive end of the court ranking 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while the Blazers are 27th. The key here will come down to 3-point shooting and the Blazers hold a big advantage when it comes to shooting from beyond the arc. Portland is the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the league at 37.2% while Memphis is 22nd in defensive 3-point FG percentage. The Blazers have a roster full of veterans that have played in big games and this second chance to save their season will have them prepared and focused. 

ASA 8* play on: LA Clippers (+) over LA Lakers, Thursday 9PM ET A little more sense of urgency here for the Clippers who won’t catch the Lakers for the #1 seed in the West (which means a better draw in the opening round as there is no home court advantage), but could drop in the standings meaning they face a tougher opponent in Rd. 1. As it stands right now the Clippers would face the Mavericks while the Lakers get Memphis or one of the play-in teams. A drop in the standings for the Clippers could mean a potential first round game against the Rockets, Thunder or Jazz who are all better than Dallas in our metrics. The Lakers are expected to take a cautious approach with Anthony Davis who has a minor eye injury and does not expect to play Thursday. The Clippers also have some injury/bad decisions to deal with as Montrezl Harrell and P-Beverly are both doubtful while Lou Williams is out after leaving the bubble to visit a Strip Club. These two teams are eerily similar when it comes to efficiency ratings as the Lakers rank 3rd in defensive efficiency, Clippers 5th. On the offensive side the Clippers hold a slight edge ranking 2nd while the Lakers are 4th. In the season series the Clippers won two of the three meetings and have a better record against the league's best teams than the Lakers do. The Clippers are a deep team and will have both of their Super Stars available here with Kawhi and Paul George which will be the difference against a Lakers team with no motivation.

ASA 10* top play on: Utah Jazz +2.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, Thursday 6:30PM ET

 The wrong team is favored here as the number is set according to public perception which is that the Pelicans must win to get into the Playoffs. That is correct but the Jazz also have something to play for as they currently sit 4th in the West but could fall all the way to 7th which would mean a first round matchup with the Clippers or Nuggets. In this match-up we have the better overall team getting points so why wouldn’t we take Utah. The Jazz had the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating prior to the break at 1.12 points scored per possession, New Orleans was 15th in O.E.F.F. on the season. There was a much wider margin when it comes to defense between these two teams as the Jazz were 10th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans were 21st allowing 1.11 points per possession. The Jazz were a much better road team on the season too with a 20-13 SU away record and an average margin of victory of 2.0PPG. Utah had the second-best offensive efficiency rating when playing on the road in the NBA. New Orleans had a losing road record on the season at 15-17 SU with a negative differential of -2.8PPG. Obviously, the reason we make the road comparisons is because there is no home court advantage in the Bubble NBA the rest of this season. All three regular season meetings between these two teams were close with Utah winning two of the three and we’ll predict another close Jazz win here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

First off, you won't find us laying 2 to 1 odds on a money line. But we can get great value here (+105/+100 range as of Thursday night) by utilizing the run line (-1.5 runs) in this match-up. With that said, there is plenty of support for expecting a lopsided game at Citizens Bank Stadium Friday evening. The Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball. Last season Miami went 57-105 and that included an ugly 27-54 in road games. Not only do they lose 2 out of every 3 road games but how likely is a blowout loss here? The Marlins lost 77 games by 2 or more runs last season! That means about 3 of every 4 Miami losses comes by a margin of multiple runs. The Phillies saw 61 of their 81 wins last season come by a victory margin of at least 2 runs. Per our computer math model, this one will too. The Phillies Aaron Nola allowed only 2 earned runs in 14 and 2 / 3 innings of work at home against the Marlins last season. Overall at home Nola dominated last season (charged with just 2 losses all season) as he held opponents to a .219 batting average while racking up a 2.91 ERA! Miami starts Sandy Alcantara here and he is a respectable starter. However, the Phillies have given him some trouble and hit him quite hard. In Alacantara's match-ups with Philly in 2019 he was hit at a .333 clip. Alcantara allowed 27 hits plus walked 7 against the Phillies in 18 and 2 / 3 innings. That is nearly 2 base runners allowed per inning and that leads to trouble in no time. The Marlins are again projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball while the Phillies should challenge for the NL East title in this shortened 60-game season. This is a mismatch in terms of the lineup and the pitching and a strong play on the home team is in order here. Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Syracuse, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET

We were on UNC yesterday and picked up an easy win as the routed Va Tech.  We like the Heels again for many of the same reasons we stated yesterday.  This is a very talented team that simply had a poor season.  They have new life now with a shot to make the NCAA tourney and we felt they play as they’d play well and they did.  UNC is on a nice roll right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming @ Duke in a game that was closer than the final score indicated.  Much of their late season success is because this team is finally fully healthy.  Their top players, Cole Anthony, missed 11 games due injury.  Their 3rd leading scorer, Brandon Robinson, also missed time because of an injury and these two were rarely on the court at the same time.  Now they are healthy and in yesterday’s win over the Hokies they combined for 27 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 assists.  They were also both healthy when the Tar Heels faced this Syracuse team in the Carrier Dome late in the season.  UNC rolled to an easy 92-79 win in that game and it was the home finale for the Orange.  North Carolina is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and that showed last night as they gathered a huge 45 boards to just 30 for VT.  They were +9 on the glass @ Syracuse gathering 40% of their misses in that game in the Dome.  We see nothing changing here as the Cuse is the worst defensive rebounding team in the ACC and 329th nationally.  Add that to the fact that UNC is starting to play very well offensively averaging 85 PPG, 48% shooting, and 42% from 3 over their last 5 games while scoring more than 1.10 PPP in 4 of those 5 games, and it will be very tough for Syracuse to stay in this one.  The Orange had 10 ACC wins, however 6 of those came against the 4 lowest rated teams in the league (BC twice, Pitt twice, Wake, and Va Tech).  They are heading in the opposite direction losing 7 of their last 11 including a setback vs Miami FL (7-13 in the ACC) despite the Canes playing without their leading scorer.  UNC already proved they could handle Syracuse and that was on the road.  Now on a neutral court where the Heels were able to get comfortable playing yesterday (@ UNC Greensboro) we give them a big advantage here.  North Carolina remains very dangerous and they move on with another win.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Georgia State -5 over Georgia Southern, Wed at 7 PM ET

These two just met here on Georgia State’s home court on February 28th.  We released Georgia Southern +5.5 on that day and picked up the win as the Eagles pulled the upset 79-70.  We flip the script here in a completely different situation and we’ll grab Georgia State, who is 12-2 at home this year, looking to avenge their rivalry loss.  In their meeting on February 28th we had a number of reasons for siding with Georgia Southern including they fact they were playing very well at the time and they also blew a home lead earlier in the year losing to Georgia State.  In their 79-70 win on the road, the Eagles picked up some serious help from the officials which we were happy about at the time.  They shot a whopping 38 FT’s to just 16 for Georgia State (+12 made FT’s) which in a 9 point game was obviously a major factor.  The Panthers also played terrible on offense making only 35% of their shots (they average 46% at home) and they put up only 0.85 points per possession which was by far their worst home performance of the year.  In fact, they had not been held to less than 1.00 point per possession in any of their other 13 home games.  Southern shot 48% (they average 44% for the season) and that along with 38 FT attempts made it extremely tough for the Panthers at home.  Georgia State responded nicely closing out the regular season beating Texas State, the Sun Belt Champion, by 19 points.  Ga Southern has struggled a bit since that win losing at home to Arkansas State as an 8 point favorite and then barely getting by Louisiana, who finished 8-12 in the conference, by just 1 point and that was a home game for Southern.  That game was also on Monday, just 2 days ago, while Georgia State has had much more time to rest.  In their home game vs Louisiana, the Eagles had to come from 16 points down with 11:00 minutes left in the game to get the 1 point win.  They didn’t take the first lead of the 2nd half until 1:00 minute remaining in the game and held on.  We like Georgia State to bounce back and play very well at home on Wednesday.  They were hoping for this rematch and they get it.  Lay the points.

ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +11.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

We will go against the Lakers here and take Brooklyn plus the double digits. The Lakers are obviously coming off a pair of HUGE WINS over the Bucks and Clippers this weekend so don’t expect their focus or energy to be at a high level here against the lowly Nets. Not only are the Lakers off a couple big games but they also have the Rockets on deck. Brooklyn on the other hand will be amped to face LeBron and the Lakers. The Nets have a new coach in place now as they (Irving and Durant) recently decided to fire Kenny Atkinson and temporarily replace him with assistant Jacque Vaughn. The Nets have won two straight and three of their last four games, which includes a win at Boston. Brooklyn has cashed in 5 of their last six as an underdog and are a very attractive play here given the circumstances. As we already mentioned the Lakers are off two big games but in reality, it’s five straight as they also hosted Philly, went to New Orleans and played at Memphis. L.A. is 12-11 ATS as a double-digit chalk this season, 8-8 ATS when laying 11 or more points. The Lakers average winning margin at home this season is +9.7PPG which isn’t enough to get the money here. Despite the Nets 11-20 SU road record their average road differential of minus -3.1PPG is 18th in the NBA and slightly below league average of -2.7PPG. The Nets have been a double-digit dog just one time this season and this line is clearly an over-adjustment by the Lakers recent success. Easy call here with the puppy!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -2.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

UNC finished with a 6-14 ACC record which was their worst mark since 2010.  This is obviously a program that is used to winning as they’ve averaged 13 ACC wins over the previous 9 seasons leading into this year.  They have talent, including a lottery pick in PG Anthony, who is back after missing much of the season.  We think the Heels are a dangerous team right now for that reason.  It’s a new season and if the win the ACC tourney they go to the NCAA tourney.  New life for this team.  They were playing well down the stretch winning 3 of their last 4 with their only loss @ Duke over the weekend.  UNC lost that game by 13 but it was a 2-point game with under 10 minutes remaining.  This team was playing their best basketball of the season heading into Saturday’s game @ Duke as over the last 5 games they’ve averaged 80 PPG shooting 47% overall and 37% from deep.  Anthony, one of the best players in the country, missed 11 games from December 15th through the end of January.  Even though he’s a freshman, he should be fresh for this tourney.  Not only did Anthony miss time but Brandon Robinson, the Heels 3rd leading scorer, also missed a number of games this year including 4 straight between Feb 3rd and Feb 11th.  Both are back and healthy.  Since mid December, those 2 players have started and played together in only 6 games because of their injuries.  This is a full strength North Carolina team that was simply haven’t seen for much of the season.  Virginia Tech is an extremely young team with 5 freshmen in their top 7 including 3 starters.  Many times freshmen can struggle late in the year because it’s such a long season and a grind they are not used to.  We’ve seen that with the Hokies who’ve only won 2 of their last 12 games with those freshmen playing significant minutes.  This will be VT’s 4th game in the last 10 days with 3 of those coming on the road, including a loss @ Notre Dame just a few days ago (Saturday).  These two met once this season with Tech winning at home in OT 79-77.  The Tar Heels were very short handed for that game with both Anthony & Robinson out and still took the Hokieks to OT on the road.  UNC had some stinkers this year but for the most part they were competitive in their losses.  Six of their last nine losses have come by 6 points or less and that includes games vs Duke (lost on OT at home), Virginia (lost by 2) and FSU (lost by 6 on the road).  We’ve got a strong feeling we’ll see a very solid UNC team on Tuesday night as they enter a new season where everyone is 0-0.  Lay the points with the Tar Heels. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UW Green Bay +5 over Northern Kentucky, Monday at 9:30 PM ET

The Final 4 of the Horizon League tourney is being played in Indianapolis at IUPUI’s home court.  This game has the #2 seed Northern Kentucky facing the #3 seed UW Green Bay.  We really like how UWGB is playing coming into this game winning 7 of their last 9 games.  That includes a win last Thursday in the opening round of this tourney as they topped Oakland in Green Bay by a final score of 78-63.  Northern Kentucky had a bye and is playing their first game in this tourney.  We think that absolutely favors Green Bay.  They are playing well and sometimes a long layoff can be bad for a team.  The Phoenix played at home to end the regular season on Saturday, Feb 29th.  They followed that up with the win on Thursday we talked about above and now play tonight.  So plenty of rest between games while still playing.  NKU, on the other hand, hasn’t played a game period since Saturday, Feb 29th and that’s the only game they have played since February 22nd.  Thus the Norse have played 1 game in the last 15 days.  Not ideal in our opinion.  These two split their regular season match ups with UWGB winning @ NKU by 14 and the Norse returning the favor and winning @ Green Bay by 9.  The Phoenix are the much better shooting team in this match up.  They shoot 45% on the season and they are the 27th best 3-point shooting team in the nation.  NKU sits just inside 300th overall shooting (288th) and they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (298th).  The defensive edge might go to Northern but if so it’s a slight one.  UWGB has never been known as a great defensive team although they’ve flown under the radar on that end of the court this season.  The rank 4th in eFG% defense, 4th in 2-point defense, and 3rd in the conference in 3-point defense.  They’ve also locked down NKU in their 2 meetings this year holding them to 35% shooting.  In their home loss to NKU, the difference was FT’s as the Norse attempted 27 freebies and made 20 while GB attempted 12 and made 7.  In a 9-point game that was absolutely the difference.  When the FT’s were basically even @ Northern Kentucky (16 attempts for GB / 13 attempts for NKU) the Phoenix won by double digits.  The Norse finished 2nd in the conference 2 games ahead of GB but we think the Phoenix are the better team right now.  Take the points.

ASA play on: Charlotte Hornets +4.5 @ Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET

We are taking the points here in what shapes up to be a very close game between the Hornets and Hawks. The Hornets still have an outside shot at making the playoffs and can’t let a game against the 19-46 SU Hawks slip by. Charlotte has played a brutally tough schedule of late with five games against: Toronto, Milwaukee, San Antonio, Denver and most recently a win over Houston. The Hornets have some bad overall road statistics on the season, but of late, they have won 4 of five away form home including a win in Toronto which is one of the toughest home courts in the NBA. Atlanta is playing out the season with a 2-5 SU record their last seven games and looking like another lottery team. The Hawks defense is one of the worst overall in the NBA, ranking 29th in the league in points allowed per game at 119.2PPG. Their overall defensive efficiency rating is 28th at 1.146 points per possession. Even the bad Charlotte offense should score against this porous defense. In 65 total games this season the Hawks have been favored just 10 times, so they are in unfamiliar territory here. As a smaller underdog the Hornets are 14-10 ATS this season, and when facing below .500 teams on the road they are 13-5 ATS this season. Grab the points with Charlotte.

ASA 9* play on: Toronto Raptors -5.5 over Sacramento Kings, 9PM ET

Scheduling clearly favors the Raptors here who have been off since Thursday, while the Kings played last night and are playing their 3rd in four nights. The Raptors have quietly gone about another great season and are 21-9 SU on the road this season with the 5th best road differential in the NBA at plus 4PPG. Toronto gets it done defensively on the road with the second-best defensive efficiency numbers in the league behind only the Bucks. Conversely, the Kings are in the bottom ten teams of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency at home. Sacramento has the 23rd ranked home point differential in the NBA at minus -2PPG. The Kings are playing well right now, but the wins have come against some struggling teams and the Raptors aren’t one of those. Toronto has covered 4 of the last five meetings and get another win here.

ASA play on: Clippers -2 over Lakers, 3:30PM ET

We’ve said it from day 1 and will say it again, the Clippers are going to win the NBA Championship unless some unforeseen major injuries occur. LeBron couldn’t elevate his teammates last year so they added a top 5 players in the league in Anthony Davis along with several other top level vets. But the Clippers have outdone the Lakers with their own additions of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard then recently landed Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris. The Clippers 2nd unit is the best in the NBA and could potentially be a playoff team by themselves. The Lakers are coming off a big win over the Milwaukee Bucks at home and had the perfect game plan to contain Giannis but the Clippers have to many options to control. The Clippers recent resume includes wins at Houston by 15, at a hot OKC team by 15 along with home wins over Philly and a blowout of Denver. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings and have a home average winning margin of +9.7PPG. LeBron can’t ‘bully’ his way to the rim in this game with Kawhi, Morris and Beverly defending him and we don’t feel the Lakers can adapt. Bet the Clippers as they are at full strength, have the better coach and roster.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Valparaiso, Sunday at 2 PM ET

Valpo is are now playing their 4th straight game in the MVC tourney and history says they won’t win this one.  In fact, never has a MVC team played in the opening round on Thursday and won this tournament.  In other words winning 4 games in 4 days has never happened here.  The physical toll is just too much to overcome.  They are a tired and their coach Matt Lottich admitted as much.  Their top player, Javon Freeman-Liberty, just returned from mono and looked really tired the first 2 games.  Lottich also said Freeman-Liberty was still “under the weather”.  Well he scored 29 points yesterday which we didn’t see happening and played another 33 minutes.  We just don’t see him being effective in this spot after logging 101 minutes the last 3 days coming off a fairly significant illness.  Based on his performance the first 2 games which was not good, yesterday was an outlier and we think he, along with the entire Valpo team will struggle today. Three of their starters have played over 100 minutes already in this tourney and they have to be tired.  There is no way around that.  They shot 48% yesterday which was again, unexpected and an outlier in our mind after they shot 43% and 42% their first 2 games.  After averaging 0.88 and 1.03 points per possession in their first 2 games here, the Crusaders broke out for 1.24 PPP in yesterday’s game.  Again, we just don’t see them being able to keep up at that rate, especially now facing a Bradley defense that was #1 in the MVC in eFG% defense.  The Crusaders were also given a boost by the refs as they called 25 fouls on Missouri State and just 16 on Valpo leading to 16 more FT attempts (+10 made FT’s).  Again an outlier as the Crusaders got to the line fewer than any other team in the MVC during the regular season.  The Braves will be playing their 3rd game in this tourney so they should definitely have more energy than Valpo.  They also controlled the entire game yesterday in their 10 point win vs Drake so they were able to spread out their minutes with 8 guys getting double digit minutes.  Bradley is also accustomed to this situation as they won this tournament last year before losing in the first round of the NCAA tourney to Michigan State.  These 2 split their meetings this year with Valpo winning by 12 on their home court and Bradley winning by 11 at home.  The favorite has covered 6 straight in this series and we just don’t see Valparaiso bringing enough energy to the table to allow them to get a win in this do or die spot.  Lay it with Bradley.   

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo Sabres, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

Carter Hart, barring any unforeseen circumstances, is the confirmed goalie for the Flyers tonight and that is a key.  Hart has been incredible on home ice all season long and did it again in Philadelphia's 4-1 win over the Hurricanes on Thursday.  Hart is 19-2-2 with a 1.64 GAA on home ice this season.  The Sabres counter with Carter Hutton.  Buffalo's Hutton has allowed 17 goals in his last 5 road starts.  He has been respectable in most starts but the Flyers Hart has been out of this world spectacular in his home starts.  Not only that but 14 of Philadelphia's last 15 wins have come by a multiple-goal margin.  That is why there is a comfort level here with laying the 1.5 goals on the Flyers and getting a plus money price (currently +120) back in return.  This is a suburb value on a 2 to 1 money line favorite that enters this game on an 8-game winning streak and generally always wins by 2 or more goals.  The Sabres have lost 5 straight games and each of the last 4 defeats have been by 2 or more goals.  Buffalo has gone 6 straight games without scoring more than 2 goals.  The Flyers have scored 4 or more goals in regulation time of all but 1 of their victories during this 8-game winning streak.  Per our computer math model, you can expect a home blowout in this one!  Laying the 1.5 goals with Philadelphia is the value play here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Mississippi State -6 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET

We think we’re getting great value here with Mississippi State at home.  These two met less than a month ago on February 11th and the Bulldogs were actually favored on the road in that game by 1 point.  Now we’re laying only 5 points with them at home when it could easily be 7 or 8 based on the line @ Ole Miss.  For comparison’s sake, our SEC power ratings have Mississippi State and Auburn rated almost dead even and Ole Miss opened +9 @ Auburn less than 2 weeks ago.  Another comparison would be MSU’s most recent home game in which they were favored by 5 vs Alabama (same spread as this game).  We have Bama rated a full 40 spots ahead of Ole Miss in our national power ratings.  The Bulldogs are playing their home finale here and should be plenty motivated after getting blasted @ Ole Miss in February 83-58.  In that game MSU was leading 31-18 with just 4:00 minutes remaining in the first half and completely collapsed getting outscored 63-27 the rest of the way!  The Rebels averaged 1.22 points per possession in that game and to give you an idea of how out of line that is for them, they average under 1.00 PPP in conference play this year.  We don’t expect the Rebs to get anywhere near those numbers in this game as they average just 61 PPG on the road this year while shooting 37%.  They are 1-7 SU in SEC road games and have topped 1.00 PPP just once.  MSU is 7-1 SU at home in SEC play and that loss came way back on January 4th, their first conference game of the season.  Their average margin of victory in this 7 SEC home wins is +14 points.  Their only home win that came by less than tonight’s spread was vs South Carolina where the Bulldogs led by 11 with just over 1:00 minute remaining but won by just 3.  Normally they are tough to come back on late if they have a lead because they shoot 79% from the FT line in conference play.  MSU sits at 10-7 in the SEC and win in their final home game could move them into a tie for 2nd place depending on what teams above them do.  This is a very manageable line for Mississippi State and we expect them to win this one by double digits.

ASA play on: LA Lakers +1 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET

We put our head before our hearts when it comes to betting which is the case tonight. We love Giannis and the Bucks and really don’t care for LeBron and the Lakers but the bet here is on Los Angeles. The Lakers have NOT been a home underdog this season and recently they were favored by -6.5-points over Houston and -7.5-points against Boston. Overall as a Dog this season the Lakers are 7-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. LBJ will take this game personally as the race for the league MVP is between, he and Giannis. Giannis should clearly be the MVP with the numbers he’s put up this season with a 31.8PER compared to LBJ’s 25.7PER and he doesn’t have a top 5 player in the league on his roster as LeBron does. Anyway, back to the bet tonight. The Lakers have won 9 of their last ten games and have a recipe to beat the Bucks after watching the Miami Heat do it recently. L.A. can clog the lane with big bodes like McGee, Howard, Davis and LeBron and keep Giannis from getting to the rim where he is most dangerous. The Bucks have been incredible all season long on the road with a a25-6 SU record and a +10PPG differential but this will be a tough place to win given the circumstances. When these two teams met in Milwaukee earlier this season the Bucks won by 7-points but attempted 9 more (home) free throws and shot 41% from beyond the arc which was drastically higher than their 35.8% season average. Even though the Lakers have a big game on deck with the Clippers there is no way they look past the best team in the NBA the Bucks at home. Statement night!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Davidson -4 over VCU, Friday at 9 PM ET

After their 73-62 win @ home vs Davidson back on February 7th, VCU was sitting at 7-3 in the A10 and looking solid.  Since that win the Rams have plummeted losing 6 of their last 7 games with their only win during that stretch coming at home vs George Washington.  VCU is extremely banged up right now with Marcus Evans (10 PPG, 3 APG) has missed 4 of the last 5 games due to a knee injury and De’Riante Jenkins (10 PPG, 4 RPG) has missed the last 2 games dealing with a personal matter.  There is a good chance both sit again tonight.  Davidson is back at home, where they are 10-1 on the season, after their toughest road trip of the season.  They traveled to Dayton & Richmond, the 2 best teams in the A10, last week and over the weekend and lost both games. The Wildcats are one of the top shooting teams in the nation (#1 three point shooting team in the A10) and at home they are deadly averaging 80 PPG and hitting over 40% of their triples.  In their first meeting @ VCU this sharp shooting Davidson team only hit 5 of 19 from beyond the arc (26%) which we feel was an aberration as VCU is not a great team defending the 3 point shot (8th in the conference).  Also in that first meeting, the Rams were 19 of 19 from the FT line which was also an outlier as they only hit 67% of their FT’s in conference play (11th in the league).  The final stat we’ll bring up from the first meeting was Davidson’s turnover rate.  The coughed the ball up a ridiculous 30% of their possessions in that game which is unlike the Cats who average just 16% TO rate on the year ranking them 42nd nationally.  We realize that VCU loves to create turnovers but that was still a very high rated for a normally solid ball handling team.  Also seeing the Rams pressure once already this season will have Davidson ready for the rematch.  Lastly, the 2 players that are most likely out for the Rams (Evans & Jenkins) combined for 34 points in the first win.  This is Davidson’s final home game of the season and we mentioned their 10-1 record here this year, they have always been a tough out Belk Arena winning 35 of their last 39 here.  VCU is one of the worst spread teams in the nation with a 10-20 ATS record and as an underdog this year they tend to beat the teams they are supposed to beat and lose to the teams they are supposed to lose to.  In fact, the Rams have been an underdog 7 times this year and they are 0-7 ATS in those games.  Going back 3 years VCU is just 8-20 ATS as a dog.  With their injuries and Davidson having revenge, we like the Cats to play well and cover this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Memphis -2 over Wichita State, Thursday at 9 PM ET on ESPN

Big game for both teams has Wichita sits in the tourney as a low seed by most while Memphis is currently out.  However, the Tigers have a chance to make a move at home here playing Wichita tonight and Houston over the weekend.  Winning both would probably get them in.  Just a huge home stand for Memphis.  Wichita is coming off a big win @ SMU but how that went down is key here.  The Shockers trailed 50-26 with 13:00 minutes remaining in the game and WON the game 66-62 thus outscoring the Mustangs 40-12 from that point on.  Obviously A LOT had to go WSU’s way for them to make that comeback and they expended plenty of physical and mental energy in doing so.  In fact, between the 13:00 minute mark and 9:00 minute mark – so 4 minutes of game time – the Shockers made 5 three pointers & a layup while holding SMU scoreless to cut the 24 point lead to 7 in a hurry.  That simply almost never happens.  Especially from a team that isn’t a good shooting team to being with which Wichita is not.  Now going on the road again after that effort we think they’re in trouble tonight.  Memphis has won 3 of their last 4 games (including a win here over Houston, the best team in the AAC) to move back close to the NCAA bubble.  The Tigers are great defensively (5th nationally in defensive efficiency and 1st nationally in defensive eFG%) and we expect them to really slow down this Wichita team that went crazy in the 2nd half on Sunday.  As we mentioned, the Shockers are not a good shooting team ranking dead last in the AAC in eFG% and 8th in 3-point %.  They made 14 three pointers on Sunday in their comeback win which is an absolute outlier.  To put that in perfective, in their previous 15 conference games Wichita averaged 7 three pointers made per game and only topped 10 one other time.  Now, on the road again where they shoot 28% from 3, they are facing a Memphis defense that ranks 5th nationally at defending the arc.  Wichita has struggled on the road vs the top tier teams in the AAC losing @ Houston, @ Cincy, and @ Tulsa and we think they have problems here, especially offensively where they average just 64 PPG on the road.  The Shockers got the home win 76-67 earlier this year but Memphis minus this small number is the play this time around.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -6 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET

We are now in the final week of the regular season and motivation becomes extremely important when handicapping games.  In next week’s conference tournaments everyone should be properly motivated as the dangling carrot which is the NCAA tourney is then open to everyone.  Win your conference tourney and you’re in.  That’s not the case this week.  In this game we feel we have a prime spot to go against a team that should be flat (Kansas State) while backing a team that should be motivated (Oklahoma State).  KSU gave a huge home effort on Saturday facing archrival Kansas but came up just short 62-58.  It was a revenge game for the Wildcats after their earlier meeting with the Jayhawks in Lawrence ended in a blowout and a brawl as time expired.  Watching this KSU team on Saturday, we could tell they put everything they had into that game.  We can’t imagine them playing well on the road in this game after that effort.  With the loss the Cats are 2-14 in the Big 12 and guaranteed a last place finish sitting 3 games behind the next worst team with 2 left to play.  They have absolutely nothing to play for here.  They have now lost 9 consecutive games and they are 0-9 SU on the road in conference play.  They do have one final home game this weekend vs Iowa State and if there is a game they will play with some passion, that will be it, not this game.  Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is trending upward.  The Cowboys began the conference season with 8 straight losses but have since gone 5-3 over their last 8 games with their 3 losses coming vs Kansas, Baylor, and West Virginia all on the road (3 highest rated teams in the Big 12).  This is their home finale so OSU has plenty to play for with 4 seniors in their 7 man main rotation.  They are coming off a 12 point home win vs Iowa State so OSU is playing their 2nd consecutive home game.  Their last 3 home games they beat ISU by 12, Oklahoma by 17 (battling for a tourney bid), and Texas Tech by 3 (in 3rd place in the Big 12).  OSU(+2.5) beat Kansas State on the road a few weeks ago 64-59 and we see no reason, based on this situation, they don’t win big here.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:30PM ET

The Brooklyn Nets are off a monumental comeback win over the Celtics last night and in for a letdown here. Boston went into the 4th quarter last night with a 17-point lead over Brooklyn before Caris LeVert decided to put the rest of the Nets on his back and carry them to the win. LeVert scored 37 of his 51 total points in the 4th quarter but you can bet he won’t produce those numbers here tonight (averages 17.3PPG on the year). The Nets have played 4 road game including last nights OT affair in Boston. On the season the Nets are just 2-6 SU on the second night of a back to back and lost their most recent home game to the Magic as a -3.5-point favorite. Memphis is fighting for the 8th spot in the West and took a hit when they lost 5 games in a row in late February but have won two straight to regain their confidence. The Grizzlies blew the Lakers out 105-88 then crushed the Hawks in Atlanta 127-88. Their defense has clearly been outstanding in their last two games allowing just 88-points in each. The Nets have a negative differential of minus -4.6PPG their last five contests while the Grizz are minus -.4PPG. As a favorite less than -4.5 points the Nets are 9-13 ATS this season while the Grizzlies in the same price range as a dog is 9-4 ATS. The underdog has covered 5 of the last six meetings and we like Memphis to win this one outright.

ASA play on: Charlotte Hornets +4 over San Antonio Spurs, 7PM ET

The Spurs are off a game last night and although they have a winning record when playing without rest this season their margin of victory in those games is just .1PPG. Charlotte is 5-3 SU their last eight games with a quality win in Toronto. San Antonio is 1-3 SU their last four games and playing without rest here and their 3rd game in four nights so fatigue becomes a factor. The Spurs are 10-20 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -4.1PPG which is 20th in the NBA, yet they are favored here in this scenario? When these teams met earlier this season the Hornets were up 63-50 at the half but were then outscored 64-27 in the second half to lose by 24-points. Charlotte will remember that game and play with extreme effort in this one. The fading Spurs are just 1-4 ATS their last five games and without Aldridge in the lineup tonight we predict an outright win by Charlotte.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

This one sets up perfectly for Georgia State to get a home win on Senior Night.  The Panthers are coming in off 3 straight losses giving us some value here.  Two of those losses were on the road and were expected as they were underdogs @ Texas State (#1 power rated team in the Sun Belt) and @ UT Arlington.  Their 3rd loss was at home last Friday when arch rival Georgia Southern +5.5 took the Panthers down at home.  We were on Southern in that game and felt it was a great spot for them to pull the upset and they did.  This is a totally different situation with Ga State for tonight’s game.  They are still 11-8 in Sun Belt action and battling for conference tourney seeding.  They can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on their outcome along with the results of other games in conference play.  One thing we know for sure, Little Rock has clinched the Sun Belt regular season crown and will be the #1 seed.  They beat Louisiana at home on Saturday to assure that #11 seed.  Tonight they have nothing to play for.  The Trojans overachieved this season to get to this spot with a very young team (4 underclassmen in starting line up) as they were picked to finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt by most experts.  This is a program that is not used to being in this spot as they were 10-21 last season and 17-46 over the last 2 seasons.  Give them credit for getting to this point but we absolutely think they have a letdown here.  Georgia State, on the other hand, is a program that is used to winning as they finished a top the Sun Belt each of the previous 2 seasons and they finished with 24 or more wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons.  They have a conference record of 89-42 since joining the Sun Belt in 2013.  Getting them off 3 losses including their most recent one at home, where they have still won 25 of their last 28 games, is ideal in our opinion.  Both teams are solid offensively but GSU has the definite edge on defense.  They rank higher overall and in conference play in defensive efficiency, defensive eFG%, and defensive 3-point%.  The Panthers average 83 PPG at home this year while UALR averages just 68 PPG on the road and they have lost 2 of their last 3 road games.  Last year in this match up GSU was a 9 point favorite at home and won by 13 in their home finale.  This year they are laying only 3 points and the situation heavily favors the Panthers.  We like Georgia State here.

ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers +10 over Utah Jazz, 7PM ET

The Cavaliers are a better team with their recent coaching change and the addition of Andre Drummond. Cleveland had won two straight games against a pair of the better teams in the East when they beat Miami in OT and then Philly by 14-points. They then followed up with a loss in New Orleans and home against the Pacers. The up-and-down Jazz got a home win over Washington but that was preceded by four straight losses, all of which were at home. Utah is just 4-4 SU their last eight road games and 16-13 SU away from home on the season with a +1.1-point differential. Even though the Cavs are a dismal 9-23 SU at home their negative differential of -6.9PPG is good enough to get a cover in this contest. Let’s face it, a big reason for the Cavs horrible statistics was injuries and a college coach trying to adjust to the NBA. Now with a solid front court of Drummond and Love along with a dynamic guard in Sexton this team should trend up the last part of this season. This is the largest road spread of the season for the Jazz and it’s time to play against them.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville -12 over Virginia Tech, Sunday at 6 PM ET

This is a great spot to play on Louisville and also a perfect set up to fade Va Tech.  The Cards are off an 82-67 loss @ FSU on Monday in a game they led by 8 at half.  The Cardinals however collapsed in the second half getting outscored 50-27 including a 15-0 run by the Noles.  The 50 points allowed in the 2nd half was the most Louisville has allowed in a half the entire season and you can bet this team, who is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, will play with a purpose on that end of the court on Sunday in their home finale vs Virginia Tech.  Let’s remember that U of L ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.92 PPP and 18th in eFG% defense.  The Cards were in a similar situation just a few weeks ago getting embarrassed by 15 points @ Clemson and then coming home and laying one on Syracuse 90-66.  A much better Syracuse team than the Va Tech team they are playing today.  The Hokies are coming off a huge rivalry game at home vs Virginia.  It was a game they were anticipating after getting waxed by 26 points @ UVA earlier this year.  Their game on Wednesday went to the wire with the Cavs getting the road win 56-53.  VT was down 26-11 at half in that game (yes you read that correctly) and made a valiant comeback actually taking the lead with 3:00 minutes remaining before losing by 3.  That game took a lot out of Tech both physically and mentally and now they go on the road to play one of the best team’s in the nation off a loss.  They are just 2-5 in ACC road games with 4 of those 5 losses coming by double digits.  Their most recent road game was @ Duke and Va Tech lost that game by 24 as 15.5 point underdogs.  We actually think we’re getting value with Louisville laying only 12 in this situation.  They are every bit as good as Duke (Cards beat Duke on the road in their only meeting) yet laying 3.5 points less than the Devils did just a week ago.  The Hokies started the ACC season with a 5-3 record but have been heading downhill since losing 8 of their last 9.  They are a poor shooting team ranking 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency and 252nd nationally making only 42% of their shots.  It gets even worst for them on the road where they make just 39% of their shot attempts and scoring only 61 PPG.  That’s going to be an issue vs a Louisville defense that will be motivated and an offense that has average 82 PPG their last 5 home games.  The top 4 teams in the ACC are Duke, Louisville, FSU, and Virginia and the Hokies are 0-5 in games vs those teams losing by an average score of 73-56 and that includes 3 home games vs UVA, FSU, and Duke.  In their only 2 road games vs those opponents they lost by 24 @ Duke and by 26 @ UVA.  Louisville might be without starting center Malik Williams here (foot injury) but they are one of the deeper teams in the nation and in their home finale we still expect them to win this one BIG.  Lay it with Louisville. 

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Orlando Magic, 8:30PM ET

We like the Spurs in this setting as they are coming off their annual rodeo road trip, then lost at home to Dallas. Now the Spurs catch a Magic team off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in just four nights. Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the league and have a 11-18 SU road record with a negative differential of minus -3PPG. San Antonio shoots it and defends better at home than league averages and based on similar opponents in recent home games the Spurs should be favored by 5.5-points here. Orlando struggles to score on the road with one of the worst offenses in the NBA. The Magic are 23rd in offensive efficiency, 25th in scoring and one of the worst shooting teams away from home. The Spurs are in desperation mode if they want to extend their 22 year playoff streak so a win today is borderline critical. Lay the points

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia +4 over Duke, Saturday at 6 PM ET

Don’t look now but last year’s National Champions are hitting their stride.  Back in mid January with UVA sitting at 4-4 in the ACC and 12-6 overall, there was talk that the defending champs might not even make the tourney this season.  That talk is now out the window with the Cavs winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Louisville in a game they led with 3:00 minutes remaining.  They are now 20-7 overall and 12-5 in the ACC.  Defensively they are fantastic as usual ranking #1 in the ACC in defensive efficiency, points allowed, defensive eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point %.  They play at a very slow pace which we feel will frustrate this young Duke team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) that loves to play fast.  The Blue Devils are vastly overrated in our opinion.  They are 13-4 in a down ACC but they have not been very good on the road.   Duke is just 3-3 their last 6 road games including a 113-101 double OT loss on Tuesday @ Wake Forest who is 5-12 in conference play.  They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in ACC play.  Of the top 3 team in the league (besides themselves) they have faced 2 of them (Louisville & FSU) both at home beating the Seminoles by 5 and losing to Louisville by 6.  The other team in the top 4 is Virginia so this sets up to be Duke’s toughest road game of the season thus far.  The Devils have covered only 1 of their last 7 as a road favorite while UVA has been a dog just 8 times in the last 3 season going 6-2 ATS in those games.  Virginia has won 43 of their last 48 home games SU and we like them to win this one as well.  If they don’t we anticipate the game being very close so take the points. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Love this spot for the Braves in their home finale.  With 3 seniors in the starting line up this home game will be extra special.  On top of that, a win here moves the Braves into a tie for 2nd place in the MVC with Loyola, their opponent on Saturday.  Bradley is 15-1 this year at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Northern Iowa who sits in 1st place in the conference.  Going back further, this team has simply been fantastic here at Carver Arena winning 40 of their last 49 games here.  If you throw out their home loss to UNI, the Braves have won their other 7 conference home games by an average margin of +10.8 points.  They average 76 PPG at home while shooting 48%.  They are also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation hitting nearly 37% which ranks them 33rd out of 351 teams.  That should be a solid match for them at home vs a Loyola defense that ranks 318th nationally at defending the arc allowing 37%.  Over their last 10 games, the Ramblers have allowed 87 three pointers (nearly 9 per game) on 212 attempts for 41% which is obviously not good.  While Loyola is 12-5 in conference play, one game ahead of Bradley, they are just 3-5 SU on the road with their wins coming @ Evansville (0-17 in conference play), @ Illinois State (4-13 in MVC play), and @ Valpo (9-8 on conference games).  The Ramblers struggle offensively on the road averaging just 62 PPG which won’t do it here vs a team that thrives offensively at home as we discussed earlier.  When these two met on February 1st @ Loyola the Ramblers won 62-51 as 5.5 point favorites.  The Braves actually shot a higher percentage overall and from 3 point land, however Loyola won the game at the FT line where they attempted 30 FT’s to just 5 for Bradley.  It was shocking the game was as close as it was with that discrepancy at the stripe.  We don’t see that happening on Saturday and even if all else remains the same, Bradley will get the win.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Evansville -2 over Illinois State, Saturday at 2 PM ET

This one is all about motivation.  These are the two worst teams in the MVC and they are locked into their spots with Evansville set to finish last and ISU set to finish one spot above the Aces no matter what happens here.  Evansville is currently 0-17 in conference play (9-21 overall) yet they are favored here?  That should tell you something.  Illinois State is 4-13 in conference play (9-20 overall) and they are coming off their rivalry game vs Bradley on Wednesday.  The Redbirds gave everything they had at home vs their arch rival but lost in OT.  That was their Super Bowl so to speak.  Now going on the road in a meaningless game we find it tough to see ISU playing well here.  Speaking of playing well, the Redbirds have not done so on the road this year where they have a record of 0-11 SU on the season.  Not only have they not won a road game, they haven’t been close with 11 of their 12 losses coming by at least 10 points.  Evansville has plenty of motivation not to become the first team since 1998 to go winless in the MVC.  The Aces have also been talking this week about winning a game for their only senior and leader KJ Riley.  They’ve also shown some promise at home down the stretch losing their last 3 home games by 7 points to Loyola (2nd place team in MVC), 2 points to Indiana State (4th place team in MVC) and by 4 points in OT to Southern Illinois (5th place team in MVC).  While they obviously haven’t gotten in done in conference play, the Aces do have some decent non-conference wins @ Kentucky (yes they beat the Cats on the road) and vs Murray State (first place team in OVC).  We think Evansville shows up and plays as hard as they have all season.  We also think Illinois State comes in flat with nothing to play for.  Both of these teams have 9 total wins this season, we like Evansville to move to 10 wins.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Indiana State -5 over Valparaiso, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Valpo is off a big senior night win over Missouri State but we feel this is a very tough spot for the Crusaders.  First they are just 2-6 SU on the road in Missouri Valley play with their only 2 wins coming by 3 @ Evansville (last place team) and by 2 @ Illinois State (2nd to last place team).  Secondly they are banged up as the regular season comes to an end.  Their best player and leading scorer and rebounder, Javon Freeman-Liberty (20 PPG & 6 RPG) will almost assuredly be out here as he was just diagnosed with mono and missed Valpo’s home finale on Tuesday.  Also starter Nick Robinson missed the last 2 games and will most likely be out here.  On top of that, starting guard John Kiser is battling an ankle injury missing games on Feb 15th & 19th and is not back to 100%.  Valpo was able to gut it out and get back to back home wins but it’s going to be awfully tough for them in this road game.  ISU is on a nice roll winning 7 of their last 10 games and now sit in 4th place in the MVC with a 10-7 record, tied with Southern Illinois and one game ahead of Valpo.  This is also a double revenge spot for the Sycamores who lost earlier this year @ Valpo and in last year’s MVC tourney ending ISU’s season.  In their game @ Valparaiso back on January 18th, the Crusaders won by 9 but it was much closer than that.  ISU actually led at half and trailed by just 3 with 20 seconds remaining.  Valpo shot 51% and they were +10 made FT’s in the game yet it went to the wire.  On top of that, Valpo’s Freeman-Liberty, who we mentioned earlier and is out here, scored 25 points and had 8 rebounds in that game.  Indiana State is 11-1 at home this year and on Senior Night (3 seniors in their top 6) we like them to play very well and cover this fairly short number.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Sacramento Kings, 8PM ET

The Grizzlies have lost 4 straight games, all of which were on the road and started with a loss in Sacramento. The Grizz last three losses were against three of the best teams in the West, Lakers, Clippers and Rockets, with the most recent being an embarrassing loss in Houston by 28. Again, these two teams met just a few days ago in Sacramento and the Grizzlies were favored by a point and now they’re laying just 3-points? Sacramento comes into this game off a loss last night in Oklahoma City so fatigue becomes a factor. The Grizzlies have played 7 of their last eight games on the road but it you look at recent home games they are 10-1 SU with several impressive wins over the likes of the Spurs, Blazers, Rockets and Nuggets. Those 10 home wins have come by an average of 10.2PPG. The Kings are 12-19 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of -2.3PPG which is slightly lower than tonight’s number. The home team has covered 8 of the last nine in this series, including both this year. The Grizzlies bounce back after a horrible showing in Houston.

ASA play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +11 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET

Located in Wisconsin we certainly know how good the Milwaukee Bucks are at 50-8 but this double-digit dog is too attractive to pass up. Oklahoma City is playing as well as anyone in the NBA, yet nobody is talking about them. The Thunder have won 14 of their last seventeen games and in that stretch, they have some impressive wins over: @Houston, @New Orleans, vs. Denver and vs. San Antonio. Consider this, the Thunder have been double-digit dogs just two times this season, at the Lakers and at the Rockets and they covered both easily. Even though the Thunder played last night they are a perfect 8-0 ATS this season in that scheduling situation. OKC has the 7th best road differential in the NBA at +1.6PPG and are 17-10 SU away from home. As far as the Bucks are concerned, we know just how good this team is, but the line is inflated here. Milwaukee was recently favored by 9 and 10-points against the 76ers at home and the Kings and the Thunder are playing much better than both right now. Again, the Bucks are now a public team and slightly over-priced in this one. Milwaukee has a losing spread record of 13-16 ATS as a double-digit chalk. Grab the points with the Thunder.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern +5 over Georgia State, Friday at 7 PM ET

In their first meeting this season Georgia Southern held a 14-point lead with 12:00 minutes remaining and blew it with Georgia State winning 82-77 which was State’s largest lead of the game.  From that 12:00 minute mark on, the Eagles were only able to score a grand total of 12 points in that loss.  We feel these teams are now headed in opposite directions and we give Southern a great shot to win this game.  State has lost 4 of their last 7 games and two of their wins game vs LA Monroe (last place team) and Coastal Carolina who has lost 8 of their last 11.  Georgia Southern is 5-3 since their loss to Ga State and they have been successful on the road winning 3 of their last 4 and they are 5-4 SU overall on the road in Sun Belt play.  Both these teams are 11-7 in league play so this is a battle for seeding in the conference tourney.  The Panthers come in off back to back losses and might be without starting guard Phillips who is their best 3-point shooter hitting 43%.  He missed the last 2 games due to injury.  Speaking of shooting 3’s, Georgia State relies heavily on scoring from the arc with 35% of their points coming from deep so if Phillips is unable to play that will really hurt this team.  Tonight they face an Eagle defense that ranks #1 in the Sun Belt at defending the arc allowing 27% and Southern is also the most efficient defense in the league allowing just 0.96 points per possession.  This rivalry has been a closely contested series with 8 of the last 11 being decided by 6 points or less.  This line opened Georgia State -5.5 and despite 70% of the tickets coming in on the home team, the line has dropped to -5 at many places.  We agree with the move and expect this game to be very close whoever wins.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -4 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 9 PM ET

As you already know, we went against this NDSU team last week for a big play in what we thought was a great spot to fade them.  You know the details of that one so we won’t get into that.  However, after beating South Dakota last week, they went on the road to play one of the lower tier teams in the Summit League, North Dakota, and lost.  Now we feel coming off that loss, playing at home with the conference title on the line, this is a very good spot to jump on North Dakota State.  The Bison sit one spot below tonight’s opponent South Dakota State who is in first place.  If the Bison can win here and then beat Omaha at home on Saturday they will tie for first place in the Summit.  NDSU is a perfect 6-0 at home this year in conference play and not only do they have revenge set up for a tight game they lost @ South Dakota State earlier this year, they also remember what happened here last year.  In their game here last year NDSU blew a 17 point second half lead and South Dakota State hit a half court shot at the buzzer to win 78-77.  In their first match up this year @ SDSU, the Jackrabbits shot 56% from the field and they were +10 FT’s made and the game still went to the wire with them winning 78-73.  Now we get the Bison at home where they average 81 PPG and shoot 49% in a game they’ve been waiting for.  On top of that, Jackrabbits leading scorer Douglas Wilson (19 PPG) was lifted from their game over the weekend due to a foot injury.  He had problems with that same foot entering the game and was limping late when his foot was landed on and he had to come out of the game.  His status is up in the air for Thursday.  South Dakota State has already clinched at least a share of the league title and their 2 conference losses both came on the road @ South Dakota and @ Omaha, 2 of the top 5 teams in the league.  Now they face their toughest opponent on the road in a less than ideal spot.  If NDSU can get a lead and they need to hold it or extend it late, we get the best FT shooting team in the conference as they hit 81% of their freebies in league play.  Great spot here for North Dakota State and we’ll take them to win and cover.    

ASA’s play on: Portland Trailblazers +9.5 over Indiana Pacers, 8PM ET

We are playing on the Portland Trailblazers and the points here. The Blazers are playing for their playoff lives right now and must do it without Damian Lillard. Indiana is entrenched in the East and still adjusting to a rotating lineup with recently returned Victor Oladipo. Indiana is 3-7 SU their last ten games but do own one quality win over the Bucks at home. Portland is 4-6 SU their last ten games but have also faced a tough schedule of late. The Blazers have been admittedly bad on the road this season with a 10-20 SU record but their average loss margin of -5.6PPG is good enough to cover here. Indiana is 20-10 SU at home with an average margin of victory of +4.7PPG which again is not enough to cover this spread tonight. These two teams essentially offset each other in terms of home/road efficiency ratings so we don’t see the Pacers having any clear advantage which would lead to a double-digit win. Portland has covered 5 of the last six meetings on this court and 12 of the last 14 overall. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -6 over Wisconsin, Thursday at 7 PM ET

The Wolverines are playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 right now and possibly as well as anyone in the country.  They have won 7 of their last 8 games and in the Ken Pom power rankings Michigan has risen from #30 at the beginning of February all the way to #9 going into tonight’s game.  That’s the largest upward move of any team in the nation over the last month.  Much of that improvement has been the return of leading scorer Isaiah Livers (14 PPG).  The Wolverines are 12-3 when Livers has been healthy and played at least half the game and they are 6-6 without him.  Livers missed 9 games since December 29th due to injury but his last 4 games back Michigan is 4-0 winning each by at least 8 points.  Livers is averaging 15.5 PPG during that stretch and for the season he is hitting nearly 45% of his 3-point attempts.  During their 5 game winning streak Michigan has knocked off Michigan State by 9, won @ Rutgers by 8 giving the Knights their first home loss of the season, beat a resurgent Indiana team by 24 at home, and topped Purdue on the road by 8 in a game the Boilers had to have.  Impressive run to say the least.  During that 5 game run Michigan is outscoring opponents 75-60 and their defense has been lock down holding opponents to 37% shooting and just 23% from deep.  Wisconsin is also on a nice 4 game winning streak but the 2 runs are not comparable.  The Badgers have played 3 of their last 4 games at home and their lone road game during this stretch was @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10.  Prior to their road win @ Nebraska, the Badgers had lost 4 straight road games @ Purdue, @ Michigan State, @ Iowa, and @ Minnesota with all but one of those losses (lost by 6 @ Iowa) coming by at least 12 points.  The last 2 games, both at home, the Badgers were leading fairly tight games ate vs Purdue and Rutgers and converted their FT’s with the opposition fouling late.  UW was +16 and +11 FT’s made in those games which they won by 4 and 8 points.  We don’t see that happening here as we don’t see them leading late and they are facing a Michigan team that doesn’t foul very much.  Wisconsin’s offense relies too heavily on the 3 for us to trust them on the road vs solid competition.  40% of their points in conference play come from deep which is #1 in the league.  The problem is they only shoot 31% from the arc on the road and they are facing a Michigan defense that ranks 3rd in the conference at defending the arc and has really stepped up their defense as of late as we mentioned.  Minus their road win @ Nebraska (who is the worst defensive team in the conference) the Badgers have averaged just 55 PPG their previous 4 road games.  Facing a Michigan offense that has topped 70 in 4 of their last 5 games including vs MSU (13th ranked in defensive efficiency) and Purdue (22nd ranked in defensive efficiency).  That all means Wisconsin could be in trouble here.  We like the Wolverines to win this game by double digits. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Stanford -7.5 over Utah, Thursday at 10 PM ET

Utah has one of the youngest teams in the nation with 3 sophomores and 2 freshmen in the starting line up.  They also bring 2 more freshmen off the bench as part of their top 8.  Because of that, they have really been poor on the road this year many playing in venues they’ve never seen before.  The Utes are 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) on the road in Pac 12 play with their losses coming by margins of 4, 16, 16, 18, 19, 19, and 39 points.  As you can see only one competitive game in the entire bunch.  They are averaging just 61 PPG on the road and have been held under 60 points in 5 road games this season.  The Utes have made only 38% of their shots away from home and just 28% from 3 point land.  That’s going to be a massive problem tonight as they face a Stanford defense that ranks 5th nationally in defensive efficiency holding opponents to only 60 PPG at home.  This is also a game the Cardinal have been waiting for after leading @ Utah with 12 seconds remaining in regulation but losing in double OT.  Stanford averaged a putrid 0.77 points per possession in that game (their lowest of the season) and still had a shot at a road win.  The host is 7-1-1 ATS the last 8 in this series and it looks to us like Utah’s freshmen (4 in the top 8) are hitting a wall late in the season losing 3 of their last 4 games.  With their road struggles already in place we see Stanford winning this one by double digits. 

ASA 3* play on: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

The Spurs are finally home after their annual Rodeo Road Trip which saw them play eight straight road games. Not only were they on the road the entire month of February but it included a schedule of the Western Conferences best teams (Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Thunder, Jazz and Thunder again). With three days rest they are prepared to take on the instate rival Dallas Mavericks. The Spurs won 2 of their three final games against the Thunder and Jazz but were then blown out in their most recent game against the Thunder. We like the situation as good teams bounce back off horrible showings. Despite an overall losing record the Spurs average loss margin is just -1.2PPG this season overall and +1.2PPG at home. In their own building the Spurs are about league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, which should be worse given their overall record. Dallas though does have the 2nd best point differential on the NBA at plus +6.9PPG and are 19-9 SU away from home but those numbers are somewhat misleading based on scheduling. In their last eleven road games the Mavs are 7-4 SU BUT only two of those wins were against winning teams. They also have road losses to the Hawks, Wizards and Suns in that stretch. The Mavs with Luca were recently favored by 4-points at Orlando who isn’t as good as this Spurs team, even without Aldridge tonight. Since 2017 San Antonio is 17-8 SU (68%) at home as an underdog with an average margin of victory of +1.3PPG and covering by nearly 5PPG. The Dog has covered 8 of the last ten meetings. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma +2.5 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

This is simply a must win for Oklahoma’s NCAA tourney hopes.  Right now the Sooners are sitting barely in the tourney or barely out of the tourney depending on which bracket expert you follow.  After losing 3 straight games, they can’t afford a loss here with 2 of their last 3 games on the road.  This game isn’t a true home game for them as it will be played in Oklahoma City although the crowd will be all OU.  They’ve also played at this venue once already this season beating Mississippi State in late January.  Oklahoma is coming off 3 straight losses and because of that we’re getting some value in this game.  Let’s keep in mind their 3 losses weren’t necessarily unexpected as they were beaten @ Kansas, lost at home to Baylor, and then lost over the weekend @ Oklahoma State.  The first two setbacks were absolutely expected as they were facing to 2 best teams in the Big 12 and 2 top 5 nationally ranked teams.  We weren’t surprised they lost @ arch rival OSU over the weekend as those first 2 games took a lot out of this team while the Cowboys were playing their Super Bowl, so to speak, at home.  We expect a huge performance after getting embarrassed on Saturday.  The Sooners have lost only 2 home games (including games at OKC) this year and those were vs Kansas & Baylor.  Now they face a young Texas Tech team (3 freshman in their top 7 players) that is coming off a 30-point blowout win @ Iowa State.  The Red Raiders come in fat and happy so to speak while OU Is backed into a corner.  These two met just on February 4th and Tech was an 8.5 point favorite at home.  That tells us this line should be pick-em or OU favored by 1 so the value is there.  In that first meeting Texas Tech won 69-61 and while the Sooners attempted 10 more FG’s, the Raiders shot lights out hitting over 50% for the game and from beyond the arc.  Despite the red hot shooting from Tech, OU led at half and trailed by just 3 with 1:00 minute remaining in the game.  Now they get the Red Raiders away from home where they are just 3-4 SU in conference play.  We like OU to get this much needed win tonight.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Mississippi State -4 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

We faded Bama on Saturday @ Ole Miss and the Tide played possibly their best game of the season.  They routed Mississippi by 25 points, shot 55% for the game (9% above their average), 43% from beyond the arc (7% above their average) and scored a ridiculous 103 points (20 points above their average).  It was just one of those games for Bama where everything went right.  We love looking to go against those teams in their following game as they tend to come back to earth, especially if that game is on the road.  We’re also getting a solid Mississippi State team (17-10 overall / 8-6 in the SEC) coming off a road loss as a favorite @ Texas A&M.  The Bulldogs are a definite bubble team and they travel for 2 more road games @ Mizzou and @ South Carolina after this game making this a very important home game.  MSU is 6-1 at home in SEC play with their only loss coming vs Auburn in the conference opener back in early January.  Their average margin of victory at home is +12 and they shoot nearly 50% from the field here.  The Bulldogs are also the #1 FT shooting team in the SEC (conference play) hitting 79% so if they need to hold a lead late, chances are they will.  They should also dominate the boards in this game as they are one of the best rebounding teams in the conference (#2 offensive rebounding & #2 defensive rebounding) and they face a Crimson Tide team that is one of the worst on the boards.  Bama won the first meeting at home behind 49% shooting (38% for MSU) and +11 margin at the FT line.  That changes tonight as we fully expect Mississippi State to play some extra fire with Alabama potentially coming in a bit full of themselves off their big road win Saturday.  Lay the number.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Nashville Predators Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

This is a fantastic situation.  Ottawa is playing the 2nd night of a back to back.  The Senators were involved in the only game on the NHL schedule last night as they lost at Columbus in OT.  It was another deflating loss for Ottawa and also their 20th defeat in their last 25 games!  While the Senators are wrapping up a miserable season, the Predators are in the middle of a sprint to the finish over the last six weeks of the regular season as they are very much alive in the playoff race.  Nashville has a big scheduling edge here as they were off both Sunday and Monday.  The Predators also have revenge here as they lost at Ottawa 5-4 in December.  With Marcus Hogberg having gotten the call against the Blue Jackets last night, Craig Anderson is expected to get the start in goal for the Senators tonight.  Anderson is 4-8-1 with a 3.57 GAA in his 15 road games (14 starts) this season.  The Predators will have a huge edge in goal whether they use Pekka Rinne or Juuse Saros.  Both have been great recently and that is why Nashville has allowed only 2.5 goals per game in its last 11 games.  The Predators have averaged nearly 4 goals per game in their last 8 victories.  The Senators have averaged about 1.5 goals per game in their last 16 losses.  Based on the huge edges here it comes as no surprise that the Predators are a -330 favorite on the money line.  Where the value lies in a situation like this is the puck line and with Ottawa likely to be held to just 1 or 2 goals and the Predators likely to score 4 or more goals (see recent averages noted above), we have no hesitation in investing in the puck line (-1.5 goals) in this one.  Per our computer math model, this one is forecast to be a revenging home blowout Tuesday.  Laying the 1.5 goals with Nashville is the value play here.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Ole Miss +8.5 over Auburn, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

We were on Ole Miss on Saturday at home vs Bama and they laid a complete egg losing 103-78 as a 2.5 point favorite.  The Rebels had been playing very well leading into that contest and we think they bounce back and play well here after that embarrassing performance at home.  They’ll have some definite motivation here as they blew a 17 point halftime lead at home vs Auburn just a few weeks ago and lost in double OT 83-82.  Ole Miss matches up very well with the Tigers having beaten them twice last year and taking them to double OT this season.  The Rebels have also had great success @ Auburn winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.  They have one of the top players in the conference in guard Tyree (leads the SEC in scoring at 21 PPG) and his backcourt mate Shuler is a veteran as well.  We really like the Rebels veteran guards on the road vs an overvalued Auburn team.  Four of the Tigers last six wins have come in OT and they made a monumental comeback here on Saturday erasing a 17 point second half deficit vs Tennessee to pick up the 7 point win.  One of their top players, Isaac Okoro, was out with an injury and is questionable at best for this one.  Even if he does play we expect Auburn to limit him as he has missed 3 straight games not having played since February 12th.  Another key here is Auburn has Kentucky on deck so they want to make sure he’s ready for that game (Tigers lookahead spot here).  Auburn is a poor shooting team (13th in the SEC in eFG% and they are not a great FT shooting team at 68% if they are trying to close the game out late.  We like Ole Miss to give Auburn all they can handle here.  The Tigers have rarely won big in conference play this season – in their last 12 games only 1 win by more than 9 points.  Another Auburn game goes to the wire as we take Mississippi to cover.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -8 over Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET

We like the situation as the Jazz are off a pair of bad losses to other Western Conference teams (Spurs, Rockets) following the break which will have them focused here. Phoenix has been a team we played on quite a bit early in the season and were rewarded with profits, but they’ve been fading with a 4-11 ATS record their last fifteen games. The Suns are 18th in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on the road and an average loss margin of minus -3.4PPG (17th). Utah will lock down the Suns defensively with the 4th best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA when they are at home allowing just 1.052 points per possession. Utah is 20-7 SU in Salt Lake City with an average winning margin of +6.2PPG. Granted, it was early in the season, but the Jazz were favored by -4.5-points in Phoenix this season and now laying a few more points at home? Bet the value and take Utah minus the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville +3 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET

These two met in early January and FSU pulled the road upset @ Louisville 78-65.  The Seminoles shot lights out in that game hitting over 50% of their shots overall and 60% of their attempts inside the arc in route to a 1.20 points per possession performance.  That was against a Louisville defense that allowed just 0.92 PPP on the season which ranks them 29th nationally.  Since that outing the Cards have played 14 games holding 11 of those teams to 1.00 PPP or less.  We expect the U of L defense to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight in this revenge match up.  Offensively a very good Louisville team (11th nationally in offensive efficiency) shot only 39% in that first meeting.  We expect the Cards to be much better on both ends tonight.  FSU is very good but they’ve had a number of games that have gone to the wire with 8 of their last 11 games decided by 6 points or less.  The Noles are also very good on defense however if they have one weakness, it’s defending the arc where they rank 9th in the ACC allowing opponents to shoot 33% in league play.  That could be a problem for them tonight facing a Louisville offense that ranks 7th nationally in 3-point percentage and they are hitting almost 41% from deep in ACC play (1st in the conference).  FSU also thrives on rebounding often dominating teams on the boards.  That won’t happen tonight vs a Louisville team that is a very good rebounding team and actually won the battle of the glass in the first meeting 37 to 32 including 19 offensive rebounds (47% of their misses).  The Cardinals had back to back losses earlier this month as they hit their bottom so to speak.  They have since regained their mojo with two blowout wins over Syracuse (by 24) and UNC (by 17).  They are 6-2 in ACC road games this year including a win @ Duke.  This is just the 3rd time Louisville has been an underdog this season with the other 2 coming @ Duke (Cards won the game) and @ Kentucky (Cards lost in OT).  The road team has won 3 of last 4 with only home team win during that run coming in OT and we’ll call for Louisville to pick up a road win tonight. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

It’s not often we find a top 10 team as an underdog and when we do we usually like to go against them.  While we expect Maryland (ranked #7 in the polls) to be a popular underdog on Sunday (65% of the tickets currently on the Terps) there is a reason the oddsmakers set them as such.  Despite their conference records (OSU is 7-8 and Maryland is 12-3) the Bucks are favored and we agree.  Our power ratings have these teams only a few spots apart nationally and our spread on this game is OSU -3.5.  The Terps come in overvalued because they are on a 9 game winning streak and they have a monumental home game on deck with Michigan State.  Maryland topped Sparty on the road during this streak but they were down 7 with just 3:00 minutes remaining and outscored MSU 14-0 to end the game.  A lucky might be an understatement.  MSU was favored by 7 in that game and now we’re getting a very similar OSU team (rated only a few spots behind MSU in our power rankings) laying only 2.5.  Also during their 9 game run Maryland has played nearly half of those games (4) vs the three lowest rated teams in the Big 10 – Northwestern (twice), Nebraska, and Indiana and they needed to hold on for dear life vs the Huskers (won by 2) and Indiana (won by 1).  The Terps are just 4-4 SU on the road this year and this is a dangerous spot for them.  OSU is coming off a loss @ Iowa and this is a revenge spot.  When these two played @ Maryland the Terps were favored by just 2.5 points and beat the Bucks by 12.  OSU had 21 more FG attempts in that game but shot just 31% from the field and 19% from 3.  They also attempted only 10 FT’s while Maryland took 24 from the charity stripe.  Now at home, we look for OSU, one of the best shooting teams in the nation (25th in shooting percentage and 18th in 3 point percentage) to shoot much better.  At home they average 76 PPG, shoot 49% and hit over 41% of their 3’s.  Maryland has had a number of breaks during their winning streak and we think it ends today.  The favorite in this series has covered 8 of the last 10 and we expect the Buckeyes to play very well at home.  Ohio State is the play.      

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -2.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET

Ole Miss began the month of January with a 6 game losing streak and things looked dim for the Rebels.  However, since late January, they turned the corner and we love how this team has been playing, especially at home.  They are coming off back to back road losses but they played wire to wire in both of those games.  They lost @ Kentucky by 5 and followed that up with a 3 point loss @ Mizzou.  A close look at those results reveals that Ole Miss led Kentucky with 1:30 to go in the game before losing and in their follow up, potential letdown spot @ Missouri, they were tied with the Tigers with under 1:00 minute remaining.  Prior to those 2 solid losses, if there is such a thing, the Rebels blasted South Carolina by 14, Florida by 17, and Mississippi State by 25 all at home.  In those 3 home wins Ole Miss shot 48% averaging 78 PPG while allowing their opponents to shoot only 37% and just 59 PPG.  All 3 of those opponents sit at 8-5 or better in the SEC and today they face an Alabama team that sits at 6-7 in conference play.  Bama has lost 5 of their last 7 games with 1 of those 2 wins coming in OT vs Georgia who is 3-10 in SEC play.  They rely very heavily on the 3 point shot (12th nationally with 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc) which we think can be dangerous on the road.  Away from home they shoot just 33% from 3 and they just happen to be facing a Mississippi  defense than ranks 6th nationally in 3-point defense allowing only 28%.  If the Crimson Tide 3’s aren’t falling this team is in trouble and we think that will be the case here.  Since 1997, these two SEC rivals have met @ Ole Miss 19 times with the Rebels winning 16 of those games.  We like Ole Miss to win and cover here.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Tulsa -1.5 over SMU, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET

Tulsa has been a very solid home team (5-1 in AAC play) and we’re getting them off an embarrassing performance @ Houston on Wednesday.  It was a revenge game for the Cougars, the best team in the AAC, after losing @ Tulsa earlier this year.  Houston blasted Tulsa 76-43 on Wednesday in a game they allowed the Cougars to score 1.21 points per possession while scoring only 0.68 PPG themselves.  It was simply a horrible performance by Tulsa.  The last time they were beaten this badly was in early January when they lost @ Cincinnati by 31 points.  How did the Golden Hurricane respond after that performance?  With a 6 game winning streaking including wins over Houston & Wichita State, the two top rated teams in the AAC.  SMU has struggled on the road in conference play with a 1-5 record.  Their lone win was by 4 @ Memphis, a game they trailed for 95% of, were down by 11 with just 6:00 minutes remaining and took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 1:45 remaining.  The Mustangs defense as a whole has been a problem as they rank 11th in the AAC in defensive efficiency (Tulsa ranks 2nd).  On the road they are allowing 75 PPG.  They just lost @ Tulane, the 2nd lowest ranked team in the league, on Wednesday and allowed the Green Wave to shoot over 50% and put up 80 points.  That was a Tulane team that had lost 9 straight games and ranks 11th in the AAC in offensive efficiency.  So along with our large defensive advantage with Tulsa, we also expect a big discrepancy at the FT line as the Golden Hurricane get to the line more than anyone else in the AAC while SMU shoots fewer FT’s than anyone else in the conference.  Tulsa has already proven they can beat the best teams in the conference at home and SMU falls a notch or two below those teams.  Lay the small number.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Purdue -2.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

This is a monumentally important game for the Boilermakers.  After 3 straight losses, Purdue has now gone from in the Dance to out by most bracket experts.  Many of them in the first 4 out or next 4 out so they are close.  Their power ratings are very strong (anywhere from 15th to 25th) however their current record of 14-13 will keep them out despite their rankings.  With 3 of their final 4 games at home, Purdue needs to make a move and it needs to start today.  While they’ve had a few slip ups at home (vs Big 10 leader Penn State & vs Illinois), they’ve proven they can beat very good teams and beat them bad here at Mackey Arena.  They topped Iowa by 36, Michigan State by 29, Virginia by 29, and Wisconsin by 19 all here at home.  The Boilers have win 41 of their last 45 games at home and we think they catch Michigan in a great spot here.  The Wolverines are coming off a big road win @ Rutgers giving the Scarlet Knights their first home loss of the season.  Rutgers shot just 34%, made only 3 of 18 from three, and made only 5 FT’s and the game still was tight down the stretch.  Michigan has now won 6 of 7 which makes them overvalued here and means this game is MUCH more important for Purdue as the Wolverines are already solid in the NCAA field.  Also, beyond their big win @ Rutgers, their only road wins in Big 10 play were @ Nebraska and @ Northwestern, the 2 worst teams in the league.  They lost their other 4 conference road games.  Purdue has a drastic home/road dichotomy as they average 68 PPG on the season yet at home that jumps up to 78 PPG!  They also shoot 48% at home including 40% from 3-point land.  These two met in January with Michigan winning at home in double OT.  Purdue get that one back here and rolls at home.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Eastern Michigan +6 over Ball State, Saturday at 1:00 PM Et

We were on EMU earlier this week as a home dog vs Kent State and the Eagles rolled up a huge 70-49 win.  Eastern is peaking right now winning 5 of their last 6 after starting the conference season at 0-7.  Even during their 7 game losing streak to start the season we were seeing signs that this team was better than their record at 5 of those 7 losses came by 6 points or less.  They weren’t far away from turning the corner and they now officially have done just that.  Their only loss this month came @ Akron, who is the best team in the MAC, but just 1 point.  EMU has a very good defensive team (30th nationally in defensive efficiency) and they’ve held teams to an average of just 58 PPG during this 6 game run.  They should continue to have success defensively here vs a Ball State team that has topped 70 points only 3 times in their 13 MAC contests.  Ball State is heading in the opposite direction after winning 4 of 5 to start the MAC season, they have since lost 5 of their last 8.  The stats are in line with which direction these teams are currently headed.  Over the last 5 games, EMU is outscoring their opponents 67 PPG to 58 PPG shooting 49% while limiting their opponents to 38% from the field.  The last 5 games for Ball State have resulted in a scoring average of just 64 PPG while allowing 66 PPG with the Cards shooting 38% while allowing 42%.  And those numbers include 3 of the same opponents (Buffalo, Western Michigan, & Kent State).  Getting 6 points here is a great value with a surging EMU team.  We think they have a great shot to win the game, but if not, it should be close and low scoring (total is just 120) making the points very valuable.  EMU has covered 6 straight and they make it 7 in a row here.