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1* Free Pick on Nevada -10 -112
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PICK - Tulsa Golden Hurricane -17.5
I've been watching this Tulsa team closely. I played against them and lost badly in their opener against Oklahoma State. They ended up losing 17-6 (+23.5).Could have easily won outright.
In their next game @ UCF they won 34-26 as a 20.5-point dog. I was mad I didn't take them against the Knights, but fired with a 50* Top Play in last week's 42-13 win @ USF as a mere 12.5-point favorite.
Tulsa isn't just 3-0, they have covered the spread in those 3 games by an average of 19.8 ppg. Covered all 3 by at least 14.5-points. While I think the books are getting closer, I still think the number here is too short.
I think it's worth noting that ECU was a 28-point home dog to UCF. Tulsa proved they were better, ast least equal to UCF when they played on the field. Factor in ECU is on the road instead of at home and I feel this should be at least past 3 TD's.
I believe even though the results speak volumes to how good this Tulsa team is, people can't get over their defense being any good with only 4 starters backs. They lost 6 of their top 10 tacklers and what many considered their best DL, LB & DB.
I think it's a combination of some guys taking big steps forward (Zaven Collins, LB has been outstanding and he's not even their No. 1 tackler). I also give a lot of props to second-year defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie.
He was the LB coach for 4 years prior to get promoted to DC in 2019. He played a huge role in 2018 (year before he got the job) in installing the Golden Hurricane's 3-3-5 defense that we see today.
This defense is similar to what ISU has used slowing down all those pass-happy teams in the Big 12. I got a feeling, much like we saw with the spread offense, this defensive scheme is going to eventually be the defense everyone runs.
ECU has a good QB in Holton Ahlers, but I see him struggling. Tulsa did give up 330 passing yards to UCF, but that was against a special QB in Dillon Gabriel. What people overlook is that was by far his worst game. Gabriel has thrown for 400+ in every other game. He also only completed 55% vs Tulsa (65%+ in the other 4).
On the flip side of this, Tulsa's offense got some good mojo going after piling it on a bad USF defense last week. They should continue to feast against an awful ECU defense. Pirates are giving up 4.9 yards/carry, 8.3 yards/attempt and 6.3 yards/play. Give me Tulsa -17.5!
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ASA FREE PLAY ON: UNDER 59 or 59.5 - Fresno State Bulldogs versus Colorado State Rams, Thursday at 10:30 PM ET - The Bulldogs offense did not look good in their opening week loss to Hawaii on Saturday. Three turnovers for their new QB and more struggles likely this week against a Rams defensive unit that returns 8 starters from last season. The issues for Colorado State early this season is a new head coach and they also have been impacted by some covid issues impacting player availability for practices. That has been a detriment to team preparation heading into the new season and the offense is highly unlikely to simply come out firing on all cylinders right out of the gate. Also, the Bulldogs are off a home loss and will want to respond here. Per our computer math model, the defense for Fresno State bounces back but struggles on the offensive side of the ball are plentiful and that keeps the scoring down in this one. FREE PLAY UNDER 59 or 59.5 in Fresno State
This is a generous number of points, given both teams' tendency to play close games. While Cincinnati has five losses, only one of those defeats came by more than five points. The Bengals also had a tie. Overall, they had one bad loss (at Baltimore) and one 8-point win (vs. Jacksonville). Their other five games were all decided by five or fewer points. The Titans, meanwhile, check in off a 3-point loss. Four of their six games have been decided by three points or less and five of their six games were decided by less than a touchdown. Not surprisingly, the Titans are 1-4 ATS as favorites, while the Bengals are 4-2 ATS as underdogs. The last meeting? A 4-point game. Consider grabbing the points.
If you liked Ben Burns' #1 play in 2020 from the Big Ten Conference, a 43-3 BLOWOUT WINNER with Northwestern, you'll LOVE the Big 12 version. It goes Saturday afternoon. Do NOT miss it!
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 10/29:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. Looking ahead to the card on Thursday, one of the last plays on my cut list is Over the Total in the game between the Colorado State and Fresno State. Fresno State (0-1) opened their season last week with a 34-19 upset loss at home to Hawai’i despite being a 2.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs have then played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Fresno State has also played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total despite that game with the Rainbow Warriors finishing below the 65 point total. Colorado State (0-0) makes their season debut in this game. The Rams have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when playing a team with a losing record at home. And in their last 4 trips to Fresno State, the game finished Over the Total all 4 times. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.
Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with the Chicago-LA Rams Under to further their RED HOT 11 of 16 (69%) NFL run! Now Frank continue his 10 of 15 (67%) NFL sides run alone with his 9 of 12 (75%) NFL Game of the Month run with his 25* NFC South Game of the Month for the Atlanta-Carolina ATS winner on Fox-TV at 8:20 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!
Thursday CFB Free play. My selection is on Georgia Southern moneyline over South Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.
We'll take a bit of a different route and back Georgia Southern on the moneyline in Thursday's Sun Belt showdown against South Alabama. The latter is coming off back-to-back wins, but both of those came at home, and they came at the expense of quite simply two of the weakest teams not only in the conference, but in the nation in Texas State and Louisiana Monroe. Those two squads have managed just one victory between them this season. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern is coming off a tough road loss against a true upstart in Coastal Carolina - a team that has enjoyed a terrific start to the season. Look for the Eagles to right the ship in this key Sun Belt matchup - I'm far more comfortable backing them on the moneyline rather than minus north of a field goal, however. Take Georgia Southern moneyline (8*).
Sean is releasing TWO 10* football winners on Thursday night, keyed by his 10* Sun Belt Total of the Month for October! Murph went 4-1 in NFL action last Sunday/Monday and he's back with Thursday's o/u winner featuring the Falcons vs. Panthers! Your best bet is a weekly or monthly subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!