Free Sports Picks

1* Free Pick on Dream -5½

Atlanta comes in at 7-3 over the last 10 with a 112 offensive rating and 93.2 PPG.

Washington is also 7-3 in that stretch, but the Mystics are scoring just 79.6 PPG at a 105.3 offensive rating.

That's a 13.6 point per game gap in production between two teams with the same recent record.

The Dream have three legitimate scoring options.

Allisha Gray at 18.8, Rhyne Howard at 17.2, and Angel Reese at 16.

Washington leans on Sonia Citron (17.1) and gets secondary production from Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen, but there's no third gear when the top option is contained.

Net rating tells the same story.

Atlanta sits at +3.1 over the last 10, more than double Washington's +1.3.

The opposition case is real: Washington plays at 90.6 pace while Atlanta prefers 99.72, and if the Mystics drag this into a rock fight, the number gets tighter.

I'm not dismissing that.

But pace control only matters if the slower team can actually score in the half court, and Washington's 42% from the field and 27% from three doesn't scare anyone.

Slowing the game down doesn't help you when your offense is already the problem.

Te-Hina Paopao being out is a minor rotation hit, not a starter loss.

The Dream's starting five is fully intact and healthier than the Mystics can handle across four quarters.

I like the Dream

Friday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Royals +155

My selection is on Minnesota over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

The Twins snapped their four-game losing streak with a win in Kansas City last night. I think the price is right to back them on Friday as they open a tough series against the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Brewers are at risk of a letdown here after taking three straight games to close out their series against the division-rival Pirates. The starting pitching edge isn't quite as pronounced as the price indicates in my opinion as Milwaukee sends Shane Drohan against Zebby Matthews. I liked what the Twins did to bolster their bullpen before the trade deadline and that 'pen is in pretty good shape entering the opener of this series. Milwaukee's 'pen has been terrific but is depth-shy and has two key arms that are likely unavailable for this contest after working the last two games. Take Minnesota (8*).