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1* Free Pick on Iowa/Maryland UNDER
Analysis will be posted shortly
Jeff Allen's Free NFL Play for Sunday is on the Cowboys and Skins Under
A classic rivalry with a very different look this year. The Cowboys are off a "perfect storm" in crushing the Jags on Sunday. Dak and Zeke will be on the road and running into the teeth of a solid defensive front seven that has allowed just two rushing touchdowns this year. The Cowboy defense is their best unit but they face a generally turnover-proof Alex Smith here and rejuvenated running game with Adrian Peterson leading the way. Lost of football between the 20s with the clock running. This series has posted five straight overs but that run comes to an end here. 20-17 .... regardless.
My free play is on LSU at 7:00 ET.
LSU opened the season ranked No. 25 in the AP's preseason poll but wasted no time making its mark, taking down then-No. 8 Miami 37-17 at Arlington, Tx, as a three-point dog. The Tigers followed two weeks later with a 22-21 win at then-No. 7 Auburn, this time as a 10-point dog. Not to be undone, LSU won 36-16 last Saturday as a seven-point home dog against then-No. 2 Georgia. However, there is 'no rest for the weary' when one plays in the SEC. LSU is back at No. 5 in the latest AP poll but faces yet another ranked team this Saturday, as No. 22 Mississippi State visits Baton Rogue. The Bulldogs began the season ranked 18th and reached No. 14 after a 3-0 start but back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Florida dropped them out of the rankings. However, Miss St is back in, after a 23-9 upset of then-No. 8 Auburn on Oct 6. This rivalry is LSU's longest and Mississippi State's second, behind the Egg Bowl against the University of Mississippi. LSU leads the series 73–35–3, after winning 16 of the last 18 meetings.
The Bulldogs feature one of the best defenses in the country, allowing an FBS-low 12.7 PPG and ranking eighth in total defense at 289.7 YPG. Defensive lineman Montez Sweat leads the nation in sacks per game (1.25) and tops the SEC in total sacks (7.5). QB Nick Fitzgerald accounted for 264 yards of total offense and two TDs, rushing for 195 and two scores against the Tigers. Fitzgerald is the top rushing QB in SEC history and his 513 yards leads a running game that is averaging an SEC-best 240.7 YPG (18th in the nation).
In contrast to Miss St's run-oriented attack, LSU arguably has the most balanced offense in the nation, rushing and passing for the exact same number of yards (1,415) through seven games. The offense is averaging 32.0 PPG, ranking 52nd. The defensive unit is no slouch, ranking 17th in points allowed (16.9 per) on 340.3 YPG (33rd). Linebacker Devin White was named SEC Defensive Player of the Week after recording a season-high 13 tackles and recovering a fumble in the win over Georgia (he ranks third in the SEC with 66 total tackles and 9.4 per game).
Yes, Mississippi State has limited five of its six opponents to 14 points or fewer but LSU is averaging 37.5 PPG at home this season. It's also very likely that LSU remembers last year's meeting against Miss State in which the Bulldogs blasted the Tigers, 37-7, in Starkville, Ms. It was the most lopsided loss for LSU since Ed Orgeron took over as head coach four games into the 2016 season plus more notably, it was Miss St's largest margin of victory in the all-time series, which dates to 1896. MSU is just 3-7 ATS on the SEC road their last 10. Lay the points with LSU.