Free Sports Picks

1* Free Pick on Minnesota +5

UCLA is 8-0 and the market is paying full retail for the story, because this same program went 1-7 over 8 games last season. That kind of turnaround creates a halo, and halos inflate road spreads.

Here's what the halo glosses over. UCLA's two true road tests this season were a 17-15 squeaker at Oregon and the Maryland blowout. Take away one outlier and the Bruins' road profile is a 2-point game. Their offense sits just 38th in SP+. This is a defense-first team, and defense-first teams win, but they don't always cover 5 on the road at noon in November.

Minnesota is built for exactly this kind of game. The Gophers rank 27th in SP+ defense and their home results show it: 20-14 over Michigan, 13-10 over Iowa. At home this season Minnesota plays rock fights and wins them, or at worst keeps them inside a field goal.

The Gophers' offense has been thin lately, 17.8 points a game over the last 5, and the Indiana loss last week was ugly. But this number isn't asking Minnesota to score 30. It's asking them to do what they've done in every home Big Ten game: shorten the game, lean on the defense, and keep it to one score. UCLA's 28.6 points a game over its last 5 came largely at the Rose Bowl against offenses that couldn't answer. Minnesota's defense is a different assignment than Nevada or Michigan State.

Eight-and-oh is real, but 5 points with a top-30 defense at home is the right side of the price. Give me Minnesota +5 (-112) against UCLA.

Air Force +3.5

Air Force and Army meet on Saturday and we're backing Air Force with the points. These are two teams with very similar styles of offense which should provide a game that is tightly played. Air Force has been flying under the radar a bit as they sit at 6-2 while coming off a win over UConn where they scored 35 points. This offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging nearly 30 ppg and they're doing it with the ground attack. They rushed for 366 yards last week and this is going to be a game where they give Army a taste of what they do to other teams. This will be a game won at the line of scrimmage and both teams will run downhill right at each other. Army's defense has had some issues and this game will stay close throughout. Grab the points. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on AIR FORCE ATS. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Saturday FREE NCAAF ATS Play

The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. A BIG weekend is coming up for football, plays locked in early in the week. Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

My selection is on the 'over' between BYU and Utah at 12 noon et on Saturday.

While it's not Army-Navy by any means, you would have to go back five meetings, all the way to 2018, to find the last time the Cougars and Utes topped the total we're working with on Saturday. With that being said, I look for this total to prove too low. BYU didn't have to be great offensively last week as it held off Arizona State 27-20 at home (and we won with the 'under'). While it certainly looks like the Cougars offense is trending in the wrong direction right now, I believe it can find success against a vulnerable Utah defense. The Utes are trending in the wrong direction defensively. They've allowed 6.7, 7.2, 5.6 and 7.4 yards per play over their last four games after holding their first four opponents to 4.3 ypp or less this season. The good news for Utah is, its offense continues to hum along. The Utes have reached 7.0 ypp or more in five of eight games this season. I think the conditions are ripe for a back-and-forth affair in Salt Lake City on Saturday. Take the over (8*).

#383 ASA FREE PLAY ON West Virginia +16.5 over Texas Tech, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET

Too many points here with a WVU offense that is cooking and coming off a bye week.  The Mountaineers rank 6th in rushing (262 YPG) and they average 54 rushing attempts per game (2nd nationally).  Tech also loves the run the ball (39th in rush attempts per game) and now with new starting QB Castellanos that should go up.  They ran the ball 47 times last week vs Arizona.  Two teams that run the heck out of the ball and eat clock should limit possessions and make it very tough for the Red Raiders to pull away in this game.  WVU has already shown they thrive in this spot as they’ve been a double digit dog twice this year and won both games outright (@ TCU and @ UVA) and they’ve covered 6 of their last 7 in that spot.  Even in their 3 losses, West Virginia put up big offensive numbers averaging just over 500 YPG.  While the Neers are off a bye week, Tech will be playing their 4th straight week and they are off a huge win over Arizona who they were battling to stay near the top of the Big 12 standings (both were 3-1 in conference play entering last week).  We haven’t been overly impressed with Texas Tech this season and feel they’ve been very fortunate to have a 7-1 record.  In fact, they’ve been outgained in 4 of their 8 games this season.  Let’s take the hefty points here with West Virginia.