#462 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings +2 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The public betting markets are favoring the Eagles in this game, yet the line has moved in the opposite direction with Philly opening -2.5 and moving to the current number of -2 or -1.5. The losses on the coaching staff have obviously had a much bigger impact on the Eagles this season than anticipated. The Eagles are 4-2 SU but have a negative total scoring differential of minus -0.2. They have a negative yards per play differential at 4.9YPP on offense but give up 5.5YPP defensively. Philadelphia’s offense is 29th in total yards per game, 26th in rushing yards per game and 28th in passing. The Eagles’ defense finished last season as the best in the NFL when it comes to Efficiency stats and allowed the fewest yards per play at 4.8. This season the Eagles rank 13th in YPP defense and rank 26th in Efficiency ratings. Minnesota hasn’t been great offensively by any means with an unsettled QB situation with McCarthy and Wentz but their numbers aren’t much worse than Philadelphia’s. The Vikings gained 4.8YPP with McCarthy under center and 6.0YPP with Wentz. Minnesota’s defense is allowing the 6th fewest yards per game at 289 and the 6th lowest YPP average at 5.1. The Vikings O-line is getting healthy, they are coming off a bye week and the Eagles have the Giants on deck, who just upset them last week. Take the home team.

#451 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams -3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET (London) - Much is being made of the fact that Jacksonville is used to these international games having already played 13 times overseas (7-6 SU record). They have a new head coach this time around so that “advantage” could be lessened. We’re going to toss that aside and simply take the better team here (and by a pretty wide margin). The Rams are coming off a 17-3 win @ Baltimore where they didn’t play particularly well. They ran 24 fewer plays and still won by 2 TD’s and outgained the Ravens by nearly 1.0 YPP. They missed a short FG and were shut out on downs at the Baltimore 6 yard line so it could have been a more dominating final score. The Rams are one of just 2 teams that rank in the top 5 DVOA (advanced metric) on offense, defense, and overall (Seattle is the other team). They lead the NFL in YPP margin at +1.5 and they’ve outgained ALL of their opponents (YPP). Meanwhile, the Jags have been outgained in 4 straight games (YPP) including -2.7, -2.4 and -1.0 YPP margins in their last 3 games (vs Seattle, KC, and SF). The only teams they’ve outgained this year (YPP) are the Bengals and Panthers. They’ve been living off their turnover margin of +8 which is tops in the NFL. The Jag’s 14 takeaways lead the NFL and those numbers (TO margin) are really tough to sustain. The Jags have been outgained in the season both YPG and YPP. They simply aren’t as good as their 4-2 record, whereas the Rams are just a play or 2 away from a 6-0 record. NFL international favorites are just 1-2 ATS this year but historically the chalk hits over 60% in overseas games. We’ll lay it with the Rams.

#335 ASA PLAY ON Old Dominion +1.5 over James Madison, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for a very good ODU team as a dog. They were 2 TD favorites on the road last week vs Marshall and now getting points partly due to that result. The Monarchs were embarrassed last week losing 48-24 @ Marshall. The yardage was even but ODU had 5 turnovers (0 for Marshall) and were shut out on downs twice inside the Thundering Herd 5 yard line. Those turnovers led directly to 28 points for Marshall. Just a bad game for a really solid team and we expect a bounce back. Prior to last week, Old Dominion was 1 of 5 teams in the country that were averaging over 7.0 YPP on offense and allowing less than 4.5 YPP on defense (so elite on both sides of the ball). ODU was one of those 5 teams along with Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, and Texas Tech (elite company). The only other loss ODU has this year was @ Indiana (top 5 team?) and they hung tight in that one losing 27-14. That’s the same IU team that beat Illinois at home 63-10! James Madison is 5-1 but they’ve faced a really easy schedule (133rd SOS). The only decent team they’ve faced was Louisville and they lost that game by 2 TD’s. The other 4 FBS teams they’ve faced have a combined 8-17 record and none are currently at or above .500. JMU’s defense has solid numbers vs a bunch of poor offensive teams, but on the other side of the ball they only average 5.5 YPP (86th nationally). Compare that to ODU’s offense putting up 7.6 YPP (3rd in the nation) and we don’t think JMU can keep up. Keep in mind ODU’s defense is also top 25 in YPP allowed that includes their terrible performance last week. The Monarchs have played the much tougher schedule (72nd SOS to 133rd) and they still have much better YPG and YPP margins. The best team in the Sun Belt is off terrible loss and getting points. We’ll take Old Dominion.

#363 ASA PLAY ON Purdue +3 over Northwestern, Saturday at 3 PM ET - This is a classic letdown spot for the Wildcats as they come off a win over Penn State as a +20-point underdog. In fact, if you are a trend player, teams off a big upset win like Northwestern fall into several negative play against systems the following week. Purdue has lost four straight games but they’ve come against USC, @ Notre Dame, Illinois and @ Minnesota. The Boilermakers put up 456 total yards last week against Minnesota and held the Gophers to 262 but still came up short on the scoreboard. Northwestern will try to rely on their ground game here which averages 4.8 yards per rush and 183 rushing yards per game. They have to, in fact, because their passing attack is atrocious averaging 181 passing yards per game (110th). That will be a problem against a Purdue defense that is better against the run than their raw statistics. PU allows 3.8 yards per rush and 129 rushing yards per game. Purdue passes for 270 yards per game with the 18th highest pass attempt average in the country at 37.2. The Boilermakers QB Browne is capable of having a big game here against a Northwestern defense with just 0.4 INT’s per game. Grab the points with Purdue and don’t be shocked with the upset.

#390 ASA PLAY ON Tulane -9.5 over Army, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Tulane has had this date circled all season long after losing to Army last year in the AAC Championship game. The Wave were favored by -5-points at Michie Stadium a year ago which makes today’s line a bargain. Tulane lost 35-14 last season but averaged 6.0 YPP compared to the Knights 5.9 YPP. The Green Wave botched field goal attempts after their first two drives, then fumbling a kickoff and had a pass intercepted in their own territory on the next two possessions. Army is not the team they were a year ago and Tulane is slightly better. The Wave are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS this season with signature wins over Northwestern and Duke. Last week the Wave beat East Carolina 26-19 as a -6.5-point favorite but the final score could have been much worse. Tulane had their first four drives stopped inside the 40-yard line and settled for FG’s. Tulane averaged 7.4 YPP vs. ECU and held the Pirates to 340 total yards at 4.6 YPP. Speaking of ECU…Army recently lost to the Pirates 6-28 and were thoroughly dominated by the Pirates. The Knights are coming off a pair of wins against UAB and Charlotte who are two of the worst FBS programs in the country. The pedestrian Black Knights offense (4.9YPP – 122nd nationally) will have a tough time keeping pace with the Wave (5.9 YPP) playing with a revenge mindset. Lay it with Tulane!

#962 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+110) over Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8:38 PM ET - Same situation we successfully used yesterday with our run line pick on LA.  The fact is that the Brewers enter this game slumping so far in this series and now down 3 games to 0 which also puts even more pressure on them at the plate.  Make sure you select 'action' on the pitchers here as that is not a key factor for us.  Ohtani is the expected starter for the Dodgers and he had a respectable post-season start at Philly in NLDS action.  He also was strong late in the season plus he had a 1.71 ERA and held opponents to a .151 batting average in his 7 home starts this season.  Even if LA goes with an opener or changes their mind on Ohtani, we love having the Dodgers here.  The Brewers have not announced a starter at the time we are writing this up but it simply is not the most critical factor as right now they simply can not shake their slump at the plate.  Also the Dodgers crushed the ball at home this season, the #1 slugging percentage in the majors and the Brewers are hitting .152 in their 3 road games in this post-season.  That said, Milwaukee is in trouble now as the Dodgers went 52-29 at home this season and LA is on an overall 13-1 run dating back to the final week of the regular season.  The Brewers, on the other hand, have lost all 3 post-season road games and also wrapped up the regular season losing 7 of the last 9 road games!  Of course the Dodgers are a huge money line favorite here because of all of the factors noted above.  However, the run line is where the value is at as it is available at a plus money return here and we invest in a strong home team with big edges.  Lay the 1.5 runs Friday with the LA Dodgers!  

#312 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - While Pittsburgh is sitting at 4-1 on the season, we’re not so sure they deserve to be. The Steelers have been very fortunate to get to that record as they’ve been outgained by 79 YPG, by 0.2 YPP, and by 0.7 YPC (rushing). The Bengals showed some life last week with new acquired Joe Flacco at QB hanging with Green Bay on the road (Cincy cover). They lost that game by 9 points (27-18 final) and the Bengals scored all 18 points in the 2nd half giving them some momentum heading into Thursday’s game. Flacco was solid completing 29 of 45 pass attempts with 2 TD’s. Cincy has played only 2 home games so far this season and they’ve been solid in those 2 games. They beat Jacksonville with their back up QB Browning (Burrow went out very early in that game) and then despite their home loss to Detroit, the yardage was pretty close (365 to 322 in favor of the Lions) but 3 turnovers by the Bengals were the difference (Browning started that game). Pittsburgh is off an easy 23-9 home win vs Cleveland last week but they benefitted from catching the Browns in a horrible situation (3rd straight game away for Cleveland and coming back from London with no bye). That fact is, the Steelers have been outgained in 3 of their 4 wins and despite their 4-1 record their point differential is only +12 which is 15th in the NFL. 5 of last 6 games in this AFC North series have been decided by a single score. 3 of Pittsburgh’s 4 wins have come by 7 or less and we like this one to stay tight. Take the points.

#958 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 6:08 PM ET - The Brewers went 6-0 against the Dodgers in the regular season and that included 2 wins in games in which Tyler Glasnow was on the hill for LA.  However, Glasnow did pitch well and allowed only 1 earned run while striking out 11 in 11 innings on the mound in those two outings.  The point is that the Milwaukee lineup certainly did not enjoy success against him and now the Brewers enter this game slumping so far in this series and down 2 games to 0 which also puts more pressure on them.  Make sure you select 'action' on the pitchers here as, though Johan Quintana might start, the Brewers have not made a firm announcement on this as of early Thursday morning.  Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy has merely stated that all pitchers, other than Freddy Peralta, are available for this game.  However, that may not help the Brewers anyway as their bullpen guys have allowed 4 of the 7 Dodgers runs so far in this series.  Simply put, Milwaukee is in trouble now as the Dodgers went 52-29 at home this season and Glasnow has been strong thus far in the post-season.  Also, in the regular season Glasnow held opponents to a .177 batting average this year and a .190 batting average last year!  LA is on a 12-1 run dating back to the final week of the regular season.  The Brewers, on the other hand, have lost both post-season road games and also wrapped up the regular season losing 7 of the last 9 road games!  Of course the Dodgers are a huge money line favorite here because of all of the factors noted above.  However, the run line is where the value is at it is available at a plus money return here and we invest in a strong home team with big edges.  Lay the 1.5 runs Thursday with the LA Dodgers!   

#308 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State +2.5 over Delaware, Wednesday at 7 PM ET -  We like this Delaware team but they shouldn’t be favored in this game.  Our power ratings have Jax State as a slight home favorite here.  For comparison, Delaware’s most recent home game a few weeks ago they were a 4.5 point underdog @ FIU who was have rated 3.5 points worse than Jacksonville State.  Value on the home dog here.  JSU should have a big advantage rushing in this game which was always like to have when siding with a dog.  The Gamecocks rank 4th in the nation in rushing averaging 280 YPG on the ground.  The only defense that held them under 200 yards rushing was UCF and they’ve topped 300 yards on the ground 3 times.  Tonight they are facing a Delaware D that ranks 82nd vs the rush and 99th in YPC allowed.  Overall the Blue Hens defense ranks 105th in YPP allowed and it’s tough laying points on the road when the defense is struggling.  This is their first road game since September 20th and while they won that game @ FIU, they were outgained by a poor team.  JSU hasn’t played a home game in nearly a month and they are 2-0 this year at home with wins over Liberty and Murray State.  The Gamecocks are 12-2 SU at home since making the jump to FBS 2 years ago and as a home dog they are 2-1 ATS over the last 2+ seasons with 2 outright wins.  We like JSU to pull the mini upset here. 

#276 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +4.5 over Buffalo Bills, Monday at 7 PM ET - Do we really know how good the Bills are at this point? We hear many anointing them the best team in the AFC but we’re not so sure. The NFL DVOA metric has them rated as the 9th best team in the NFL with Atlanta just a few spots behind. Let’s look how they’ve gotten to their current 4-1 record. First, they’ve played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far. In week 1 they came from 15 points down with under 4:00 remaining to beat the Ravens scoring 17 points in the final 3:56. While Baltimore has had some injuries, even prior to that they’ve shown they might not be near the level they were a year ago. After that the Bills beat the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints who have a combined record of 2-13 (as of Sunday morning). Last week, the Patriots played them toe to toe (both averaged 6.0 YPP) and won in Buffalo 23-20. We’re not sure the Bills should be favored by a FG or more here. Atlanta is in a great spot coming off a bye week. We think the Falcons are undervalued right now. Their 2 losses came vs Tampa Bay, who scored with under 1 minute remaining to get the 3 point win, and @ Carolina. That game still baffles us. The Birds outgained Carolina by more than 100 yards, had more first downs, averaged 5.7 YPC rushing to 3.7 for the Panthers and lost big. 3 turnovers didn’t help. Atlanta has some nice momentum heading into the bye beat a good Washington team while outgaining them 435 to 294. They have a mobile QB (Penix) and are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL (6th) facing a Buffalo defense that ranks 28th vs the run. The Falcons have played the much tougher schedule, yet still have better YPG and YPP margins. Their defense has been outstanding and currently ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense and #3 in YPP allowed. We think this game goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points.

#259 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks +1 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday a 1 PM ET - We were on Seattle last week and they lost on a FG as time expired. Actually Tampa scored 10 points in the final 1:05 of that game to come from behind and win. The Seahawks offense was really good averaging a whopping 8.6 YPP in that loss. The defense came into the game as one of the best in the NFL and threw up a stinker allowing TB to score 38 points after not allowing any of their first 4 opponents to top 20 points. We like the defense to bounce back and play very well here. Seattle still ranks in the top 10 in defensive DVOA and they rank as the 2nd best team in the NFL overall DVOA. Their YPP margin of +1.2 is the 2nd best in the NFL. This team is much better than their 3-2 record. They catch the Jags on a short week after beating KC on Monday night in one of their biggest home wins in the last 3 or 4 seasons. The Chiefs actually dominated Jacksonville in the stat sheet with 476 total yards (7.6 YPP) to just 319 yards for Jags on 5.9 YPP. Jacksonville won the turnover battle in that game including a game changing 99 yard pick 6 which was a 14 point turnaround. Despite that, they still needed a TD with 23 seconds left to win by 3. The Jaguars lead the NFL in turnover margin and have 4 more takeaways (14) than anyone else in the NFL. That’s not sustainable and once the turnovers even out, this team won’t be as successful. Despite their 4-1 record, they are getting outgained on a YPG and YPP basis on the season. We don’t love the long travel for the Seahawks, but that is offset a bit by Jacksonville playing on a short week. The better team is getting points here and the Seahawks have won 9 of their last 10 road games outright. We’ll take Seattle to win this game.

#252 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets +7.5 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET (game in London) - It’s sometimes hard to plug your nose and take an ugly dog in the NFL but this spots absolutely warrants us siding with the Jets. Denver is in a tough spot coming off an emotional, come from behind win over a vastly overrated Eagles team. The Broncos outscored Philly 18-0 in the 4th quarter to squeak out a 21-17 win. That win doesn’t look all that impressive after the Eagles were trounced by the Giants on Thursday night. Not only that, Denver is now playing their 4th week in the last 5 away from home. On the other side, we should have a motivated Jets team off an embarrassing 37-22 home loss vs Dallas. The offense put up nearly 400 yards in the loss but the defense was shredded by a good Dallas offense. It looks like NY is in line to get some key starters back on defense after missing last week which will help. That fact is, winless teams gain value as we progress through the season and their “want to” is often quite high to try and get their first win and avoid further embarrassment. To that fact, 0-5 SU teams in game 6 have a spread record of 33-15 since 1980. This line is simply too high for this spot. Denver was just favored by the same number at home vs Cincinnati, who is currently the worst team in the NFL (per DVOA). The Jets were just a 1 point dog at home vs Dallas and @ Tampa Bay they were less than a TD dog and covered losing by 2 points. Now they are getting a TD+ in London vs Denver off a huge win? All of the Broncos games (minus Cincinnati) have been decided by 1 score including vs Tennessee (2nd worst DVOA team) at home. 3 of the Jets 5 losses have come by 6 points or less. New York actually has better numbers on both sides of the ball away from home this season. It’s sometimes best to get away from the negative vibe in NY and just play. We think NYJ keeps this one close.

#212 ASA PLAY ON Auburn +3.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Nice situational spot for the Tigers at home here. They are coming off back to back tight road losses vs high level opponents. They lost by 7 @ Oklahoma and by 6 @ Texas A&M and then had last week off. We haven’t been overly impressed with UGA this season. They are good, but not at the level they have been in recent years. They’ve been overvalued all season finally picking up their first cover of the season last week vs Kentucky (only by a half point). Not a huge win by any means as we have Kentucky rated as the worst team in the SEC as of now (0-3 in league play). In their 2 games vs upper tier SEC teams, UGA lost at home to Alabama and squeaked by Tennessee by 3 points in OT. In that win over the Vols, the Bulldogs ran 16 more offensive snaps yet only outgained UT by 7 yards. Auburn has taken their 2 upper tier SEC opponents to the wire on the road and now they finally get a conference home game. They’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country (7th SOS) yet still have a very good YPG, YPP, and YPC margins. Defensively the Tigers have been very solid this season holding every team they’ve faced to 24 points or less and that includes 2 teams that rank in the top 25 in total offense (A&M and Baylor). UGA has another huge revenge game on deck vs Ole Miss (lost 28-10 vs the Rebels last year) and they’ve been a terrible favorite since the start of last season going 3-12-1 ATS. Their last 11 games they’ve been tabbed a road favorite, UGA is just 2-8-1 ATS. This sets up nicely for Auburn to potentially pull the upset vs an overvalued Georgia team.

#172 ASA PLAY ON USC -2.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - USC is in a much better scheduling situation this week following a bye and playing a difficult slate prior to the week off. The Trojans last game was Sept 27th in Champaign where they lost 32-34 to the Illini. USC had played the latest game possible the week before at home, then traveled for an 11 AM CT start against Illinois. After that loss and a bye week we like them at home against the Wolverines. Michigan is coming off a pair of wins in conference play against Nebraska and Wisconsin, but those two teams aren’t in USC’s class. Wisconsin was down to their 3rd string QB last week and missing several offensive linemen. UM led 17-7 after three quarters before pulling away late 24-10. As usual, the Trojans have one of the best offenses in the nation averaging 565 total yards per game, 8.5 yards per play (1st), rushing for 6.4 yards per carry (4th) and passing for another 338 total yards per game (3rd). On paper this Michigan defense has some very good overall numbers but the best offense they’ve faced is Nebraska’s (47th in YPP at 5.8) who doesn’t compare to USC’s. Michigan’s two road games were a close 3-point win at Nebraska and an 11-point loss at Oklahoma. The Trojans are 7-2 SU their last nine home games with an average +/- of plus 21.2ppg. Lay it here with USC.

#158 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -14 over Kansas, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Texas Tech has been absolutely dominant winning every game by at least 24 points including road wins @ Utah and @ Houston. They are one of 5 teams in the country that average more than 7.0 YPP on offense while allowing less than 4.5 YPP on defense. They are elite on both sides of the ball. Best team money can buy so to speak as the Red Raiders have one of the highest funded programs in the country and the picked up a lot of key, experienced transfers. They have big edges on both sides of the ball. Kansas is solid offensive (40th in total offense) but their defense has left a lot to be desired this season (79th in total defense). The Jayhawks are also playing their 2nd straight road game after topping UCF on the road last week 27-20. It wasn’t overly impressive as KU had fewer first downs, had less total yardage, and the Hawks were outgained 5.1 YPC to 3.8 YPC on the ground. UCF led 14-0 in that game and lost their starting QB Jackson in the 3rd quarter. The only 2 teams Kansas has played this season that rank in our top 50 power rankings are Cincinnati and Missouri and they lost to both of those teams. The only comparable team to Texas Tech is Missouri and while KU “only” lost that game 42-31, they were outgained 595 to 254 in that loss and scored 1 of their TD’s on a fumble return. Not sure how Kansas slows down a Tech offense on the road that has tallied at least 552 yards in every game but 1. And in that game, they put up 484 yards on a very good Utah defense. On top of that, not sure how the Jayhawks put up big numbers to keep up here vs a Tech defense that hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in any game this season. Potential blowout here.

#162 ASA PLAY ON Missouri +3 over Alabama, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Bama is in a rough spot here having played back to back “all in” down to the wire type games vs Georgia and Vandy. The tipped the Bulldogs by 3 and last week’s 30-14 win over Vanderbilt was a bit misleading as the game was 20-14 midway through the 4th quarter (Bama scored final TD with 17 seconds left). The most concerning part of those 2 wins by the Crimson Tide is the fact they were beaten up pretty soundly in the trenches. In their game vs UGA they were outgained 6.9 YPC (rushing) to 3.3 YPC and last week vs Vandy they were outgained 7.6 YPC to 3.8 YPC on the ground. Now they face a Missouri offense that is humming ranking 6th nationally in total offense (548 YPG), 9th in scoring (45 PPG) and most concerning for the Tide is the Tigers can really run the ball ranking 4th nationally in rushing (292 YPG). The Tide rank 96th in YPC offensively and 104th YPC defensively while Mizzou ranks 13th and 10th in those categories respectively. Bama should again be at a disadvantage on both lines of scrimmage. While Alabama is off their 2 physical tilts, they are also playing their 2nd road game in 3 weeks while Mizzou is playing their 6th consecutive home game. On top of that, the 5-0 Tigers are coming off a bye week. In their 2 games vs solid FBS teams (South Carolina & Kansas), the Tigers destroyed those opponents in the stats outgained the Gamecocks by 163 yards and the Jayhawks by 339 yards. This team is good, rested, healthy, and motivated to get their first win ever over Alabama (0-5 lifetime).

#113 ASA PLAY ON East Carolina +6.5 over Tulane, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - ECU sits at 3-2 with losses vs BYU and NC State. They’ve been competitive in every game with the exception of their loss vs BYU (lost @ NC State by 7). Tulane is 4-1 with their lone loss coming in blowout fashion vs Ole Miss. Tulane has played the slightly more difficult schedule but ECU’s overall numbers are far superior. The Pirates rank in the top 30 nationally in both total offense and defense. The Green Wave ranks 68th in total offense and 103rd in total defense. ECU has a +1.1 YPP differential while Tulane is -0.2. ECU’s point differential is +17 PPG while Tulane is +2 PPG. The Pirates can definitely score enough to stay in this game as they average 30 PPG and are facing a Tulane defense that is the 2nd lowest rated total defense ECU has faced this season. The Green Wave relies heavily on the run averaging 41 rush attempts per game (28th nationally) but ECU has been stout on the ground allowing just 3.3 YPC (34th). On the other side, the Pirates average 315 YPG through the air (10th in the country) behind senior QB Houser who is completing 68% of his passes. The Tulane defense ranks 110th in pass defense allowing 251 YPG and 85th allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt. These teams have met 20 times since 1991 and Tulane has beaten ECU by more than 10 points only 3 times, so we expect another close game tonight.

#104 ASA PLAY ON UTEP +2.5 over Liberty, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Both of these teams step into this contest with 1-4 records. Our power ratings have UTEP as a slight favorite so we have some value with the home team in our opinion. For reference, in their most recent home game 2 weeks ago, the Miners were 3.5 points dogs vs La Tech who we have rated 12 points better than this Liberty team yet his line is nearly the same. UTEP lost that game 30-11, however they outgained La Tech but committed 5 turnovers. In their game prior to that, the Miners lost 31-25 vs UL Monroe and again outgained their opponent but lost the turnover battle 2-0. Head coach Scotty Walden is sticking with starting QB Nelson despite his recent struggles but he is very talented as a former 5 Star QB who has been at USC and Boise State. If he struggles again, this backup Locklear was the starter last year so he has experience. Liberty is playing their 4th road game in their last 5 and they’ve already lost 2 games outright as a favorite @ Bowling Green and @ Jacksonville State. The best unit on the field on Wednesday night will be UTEP’s defense. They rank 45th nationally in YPP allowed and 56th in total D. All of the other units (UTEP offense, Liberty defense, and Liberty offense) all rank outside the top 100 in total offense/defense and efficiency (YPP allowed and YPP gained). These 2 have played similar strength of schedules and UTEP and a positive YPG and YPP margin which Liberty is negative in both including. We’ll side with the Miners at home getting points in this one.

#483 ASA PLAY ON New England Patriots +9 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday 8:20 PM ET - This is a huge rivalry game within the Division and much like the Thursday night game with the 49ers/Rams, the points and dog are worth a look here. In fact, the underdog has covered 4 straight in the series and all four were decided by 7 or less points. Everyone is sky high on the Bills and their 4-0 record but did you notice the four wins have come against teams with a combined 2-14 SU record. Granted, they have insane offensive statistics ranking 2nd in total yards per game, 4th in yards per play, 1st in rushing yards per game and 6th in passing yards per game, but again consider the defenses they’ve faced. Even with that soft schedule the Bills defense is average in terms of yards per play allowed at 5.5, rank 31st in rushing yards per game allowed (164) and rank 11th in total yards per game given up. New England has played better than their 2-2 SU record and is coming off a complete game against the Panthers. The Patriots averaged 6.5YPP against the Panthers and held Carolina to 5.0YPP and 13-points. New England outplayed Pittsburgh the week before and lost, prior to that they won in Miami 33-27. The Pats are more than capable of keeping up in this game with an offense that ranks 10th in YPP at 5.9 and 14th in total yards per game gained. New England and Drake Maye average the 7th most passing yards per game and can challenge the Bills #1 ranked passing defense. The backdoor cover could be available in this one. Grab the points.

#478 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks -3.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 4 PM ET - First off, the situation definitely favors Seattle. They played last Thursday at Arizona (23-20 win) so they have had 10 days to prepare and rest. Tampa is playing their 3rd road game in the first 5 weeks and have to travel about as far as you can travel in this league for this one. The Bucs are a bit fortunate to be 3-1 on the season as their first 3 wins all came with a score in the last minute of play. They beat Atlanta with a TD with under 1:00 minute left, beat Houston with a TD with 6 seconds left, and beat the Jets with a FG as time expired. Last week they lost their first game of the season vs Philadelphia. The Eagles got out to a 24-3 lead in that game and held on for a 31-25 win. The Tampa offense hasn’t been clicking early in the season ranking 22nd in YPP, 16th in YPC (rushing), and 23rd in yards per pass attempt. They will be missing their top 2 offensive weapons in this game with WR Evans and RB Irving both injured. Their other WR Godwin just returned from an injury (hadn’t played since week 7 last year) last week and wasn’t overly effective (3 catches in 10 targets) as he works his way back. We don’t see a path to success here offensively for the Bucs missing those 2 guys and facing a Seattle defense that ranks #2 DVOA and allowed only 1.46 points per drive which is 2nd best in the NFL. Seattle’s offense has been a surprise ranking 9th in YPP and 6th in scoring at 28 PPG with veteran QB Darnold having another good season. Because they’ve been solid on both sides of the ball, Seattle’s YPP margin is +1.2 which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Their only loss was a 17-13 setback vs the Niners when SF was healthy. It took a late SF TD (1:30 left) to win that one otherwise Seattle is undefeated. Let’s lay it here.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Denver Broncos +4.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Eagles are 4-0 but their metrics say this is a 2-2 team at best. They’ve been outgained both YPG and YPP in every game this season. Their YPP margin is -1.2 which ranks 28th in the NFL and they are getting outrushed 3.5 YPC to 4.8 YPC. Last week they won with 200 total yards and they didn’t complete a pass in the 2nd half. They rank 30th in the NFL in total offense and Philly is getting outgained by an average of 82 YPG. Two weeks ago they trailed the Rams 26-7 in the 2nd half a pulled out a win with a blocked FG attempt returned for TD as time expired (we were on Rams ughh!). This team can’t continue winning the way they are playing this season. They are going to get clipped soon and we think it’s this weekend. Denver is off an easy 28-3 win over a bad Cincy team but dominated with +20 first down differential and over 500 yards of offense. The Broncos are close to being 4-0 as well (2-2 right now) as their 2 losses came @ LA Chargers by 3 and @ Indianapolis by 1 (2 playoff caliber teams) and they led both games in the 4th quarter. While Philly has a number of negative differentials we’ve discussed the Broncos are +0.9 YPP, +70 YPG, and +1.0 YPC (rushing). The Denver defense is one of the best in the NFL ranking 2nd in scoring D and in the top 10 in total D and YPP allowed. They should have plenty of success facing an Eagle offense that ranks 29th or lower in total offense, YPP, rushing YPC, and passing offense. We think Denver has a great shot at winning this game but even if not, getting above +3 is key as both of their were by a FG or less. We’ll take the points here.

#370 ASA PLAY ON Florida +6.5 over Texas, Saturday 3:30 PM ET - Florida is in a desperate spot here having lost 3 straight games and a marquee win over the Manning/Longhorns would go a long way in restoring the Gators confidence. Florida was embarrassed by Miami last week 7-26 as an +8.5-point road dog and are now catching a similar number at home which doesn’t add up. Texas has faced one stiff test this season and failed at Ohio State in the opener. Since that game the Longhorns have faced San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston State who all rank 106th or worse in SP+. Florida on the other hand has faced the 2nd toughest schedule in the country which will have them prepared for this showdown. We also feel the Gators are better than the numbers would suggest. They were clearly in a lookahead spot when they lost to South Florida with LSU on deck. Not to mention USF isn’t a bad team and it was their Super Bowl playing the instate Gators. Against LSU, the Gators were +13 in first downs, were plus in total yardage and had a +15 minute time of possession advantage but QB Lagway threw 5 INT’s. Last week Florida looked horrible against the Canes and that stinging defeat should provide motivation this week against the Horns. Longhorns QB Manning struggled against the only real defense he’s faced of the Buckeyes and he could struggle in this environment of the Swamp. Florida has been a home dog just 10 times in the past 5 years and have covered 7 of those games with a +2.5-point average scoring differential. Grab the points.

#374 ASA PLAY ON Purdue +9.5 over Illinois, Saturday 12 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this selection as the Illini are in a tough spot off two huge emotional games at Indiana, then home against USC, facing Purdue with Ohio State on deck. That’s not all, the Boilermakers were off last week and have had two full weeks to prepare for Illinois. If you compare each team’s season statistics side-by-side there are many similarities and Illinois does not have enough separation to warrant this spread. The Boilers have faced Notre Dame and USC this season and despite lopsided final scores they played well offensively in both with 379 total yards against the Irish and 354 versus the Trojans. The Illini defense has some holes as shown in their games against USC and Indiana. USC just shredded them for 490-total yards at 6.2YPP and Indiana roasted them for 63-points, 579 total yards at 8.0YPP. This Purdue passing attack is more than capable of trading points with the Illini and should keep this game close throughout, much like last year in the 50-49 OT Illini win.

ASA Las Vegas Aces -3 vs. Phoenix Mercury, 8pm ET - The Aces got off to a rough start to the season after a roster overhaul but then finished the season red hot with 16 straight wins to end the regular season. They have a strong history at home and even with a slow start this season they went 17-5 in Vegas with an average plus/minus of +5.8ppg. The Aces won the regular season series with the Mercury 4-1 with a 3-0 home court advantage and an average margin of victory in those games of +5.5ppg. Phoenix made some dramatic roster changes themselves this season and it’s certainly paid off but this opener is going to be a tough assignment for them. Phoenix did knock off New York and Minnesota in the first two rounds of the playoffs but spreads for the Mercury on the road were +5 at NY, +9.5 and +7.5 at Minnesota. The Aces are laying a much lower number here and finished the last two months of the season as the best team in the W. Wilson and the Aces get a 6 or more point home win in the opener.

#308 ASA PLAY ON Delaware -2.5 over Western Kentucky, Friday at 7 PM ET - Delaware has been a bit of a surprise with a 3-1 record and their only loss coming @ Colorado. They are in a great spot here at home coming off a bye after rolling FIU 2 weeks ago 38-16 on the road. Western Kentucky is in a much tougher spot playing their 2nd of back to back road games. The Hilltoppers won @ Missouri State (first year in FBS) 27-22 last week as a 4 point favorite. Missouri State lost their veteran QB Clark (3 year starter) in the first half and were still able to take WKY to the wire. The Bears dominated the ground game with over 200 yards rushing on 6.3 YPC. That’s been a problem for the Hilltopper D all season long as they rank outside the top 100 in rushing defense and YPC allowed. The Blue Hens should have success on the ground here as they’ve run the ball very well over their last 2 games with almost 400 yards on the ground combined. Huge home game for the Hens as this is their first ever Conference USA home game. The situation heavily favors the host and with the number under a FG, we’ll lay it.

#260 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -2 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Atlanta sits at 1-2 and this is a huge game for them as they face Buffalo next and then 2 of 3 on the road after that. Last week’s 30-0 loss @ Carolina was one of the crazier box scores we’ve seen in quite some time. Final stats looked like this…Falcons 332 total yards, Panthers 224 total yds. Falcons 5.0 YPP, Panthers 4.1 YPP. Falcons 5.7 yards per rush, Panthers 3.7. Final score Panthers 30, Falcons 0. Turnovers are usually an issue when you see a box score like this and they were. Atlanta had 3 turnovers, including a pick 6, that led directly to 14 of Carolina’s 30 points. The Falcons crossed midfield on 7 of their 11 offensive possessions and didn’t score a single point. Their other games were vs Tampa Bay, a 23-20 loss when the Bucs scored a TD with under 30 seconds left, and a dominating 22-6 win @ Minnesota. The Birds have much better stats than their 1-2 record would indicate. They have a +111 YPG differential, +0.6 YPP differential, +0.6 YPC (rushing) differential and a +0.5 yards per pass attempt differential. Those numbers almost always equate to a very good record. Atlanta had been unlucky scoring a point for every 24 yards gained which is last in the league. We expect that to push more toward the norm (1 point for every 15 yards gained) moving forward. Washington is off a huge win over Las Vegas 41-24 but caught the Raiders in a perfect spot (east coast week 1, back home for late Monday night game, and back to east coast vs Washington). They played that game without QB Daniels and he will sit again here along with top WR McLaurin. Back up Mariota is solid but still only has a 35-40 career record as a starter. Washington’s 2 wins have come vs Las Vegas and NY Giants who have a combined record of 1-5. Atlanta’s defense has been very good ranking 2nd in total defense and 4th in YPP allowed. They should be able to slow down this Washington offense with a back up QB. This is a much bigger game for the Falcons and we like them to win by at least a FG.

#251 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET – Game in being played in Ireland - Both these teams are 2-1 on the season but there is a drastic difference in key stat margins. The Vikings have a +25 point differential while Pittsburgh’s is -5. Minnesota has a +0.9 YPP differential and a +0.3 YPC (rushing) differential. The Steelers have a -1.3 YPP differential and a -1.5 YPC differential. Pittsburgh has been outgained on a YPG and YPP basis in all 3 of their games this year and they are already -417 in total yardage through 3 games. They’ve been very fortunate with a +5 turnover margin in their 2 wins. They rank 30th in total offense and 26th in total defense. The only other team in the NFL that ranks in the bottom 7 in both total offense and total defense are the Tennessee Titans. This Pittsburgh team has the stats of an 0-3 team. Minnesota is coming off a 48-10 home win over Cincinnati last week (we were on the Vikings). While they did have some big time help with the Bengals committing 5 turnovers, the Vikes still averaged over 6.0 YPP so the offense was playing well. Veteran QB Carson Wentz stepped in and played well for the injured JJ McCarthy. We think this is an upgrade short-term as Minnesota was struggling with McCarthy under center (5.2 and 4.3 YPP in their first 2 games). The Viking defense has been really solid and will easily be the best unit on the field in this game. They rank 6th in total defense, 7th in YPP defense, and 3rd in pass defense. They have allowed a TD on just 11% of opponent possessions which is the best mark in the NFL. The Pittsburgh offense has yet to top 271 total yards and QB Rodgers has been below average ranking 23rd in QBR. They’ll struggle offensively vs this Minnesota defense. The favorite in NFL overseas games are 32-18 ATS and we like Minnesota laying under a FG.

#179 ASA PLAY ON Marshall +1.5 over Louisiana Lafayette, Saturday at 8 PM ET - ULL has some major concerns at the quarterback position after the loss or QB Walker Howard, who was injured in the season opener against Rice. Daniel Beale has filled in but has been less than effective with 313 total passing yards on 50.7% completions with 1 TD and 2 INT’s. The O-line doesn’t help matters as they are one of the worst in the nation when it comes to efficiency stats with a sack percentage allowed of 7.23% (96th). The Cajuns are scoring just 17.7ppg, rank 129th in total yards per game (267) at 4.8 yards per play (107th). ULL is coming off a road loss to Eastern Michigan who rates significantly lower in our ratings compared to Marshall. The Herd are coming off an impressive 42-28 win at Middle Tennessee State with QB Del Rio-Wilson completing 18/22 passes for 261 yards and 4 TD’s. Marshall averaged 6.1YPP in that game against MTU and outgained the Blue Raiders by 75-total yards. The Herd are averaging 180 rushing yards per game (58th) this season and will face a ULL defense allowing 215 rushing yards per game (129th). The Cajuns strength is also running the football at 199ypg, but the Herd defense allows the 35th fewest rushing yards per game at 102.5 and we already discussed their passing woes. Marshall went to Louisiana last season as a 5-point underdog and won 31-3, outgaining ULL by 155 total yards. This one may be just as ugly. Take the road team.

#161 ASA PLAY ON Arizona +6.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This is going to be a much tighter game than the oddsmakers are suggesting. These are two very even teams statistically even though the Cyclones have faced a tougher schedule. The one common opponent on each team’s schedule was a game against Kansas State. ISU faced K-State in the season opener and won 24-21 despite getting outgained 393 total yards to 313 yards and 4.2 yards per play to 6.8YPP. Arizona just faced Kansas State and won 23-17, completely dominating K-State with 412 yards compared to 193, had 13 more first downs in the game and a +13 minute time of possession advantage. UA’s QB Fifita has been exceptional going 35/55 for 551 yards, 6 TD’s and 0 INT’s. Arizona has solid balance on offense averaging 189 rushing yards per game, 248 passing which both rank in the top 54 in college football. They are gashing opponents for 6.5YPP which ranks 39th. ISU is 80th in total yards per game gained at 383ypg and are middle of the pack in rankings in both rushing and passing offensively. Defensively both teams grade out relatively even with Arizona having better overall numbers, but they’ve also faced one less opponent than Iowa State and have faced weaker competition. ISU has two injured kickers which could be a concern in what should be a very close game. Grab the points.

#176 ASA PLAY ON Ole Miss -1.5 over LSU, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We think LSU is a bit overvalued right now. Their 2 “big” wins over Clemson (by 7) and Florida (by 10) don’t look all that great anymore. Clemson now sits at 1-3 on the year with losses to Ga Tech and Syracuse while Florida was destroyed last week by Miami FL. To quicky compare, LSU faced Florida 2 weeks ago and won 20-10. The Gators actually outgained the Tigers but had 5 turnovers. LSU only scored 13 offensive points as one TD was a pick 6. Last week, Florida was dominated by Miami with only 7 first downs and 141 total yards. The LSU offense has not been impressive. They’ve scored 17 vs Clemson, 23 vs La Tech and 20 (actually 13 on offense) vs Florida. They can’t run the ball ranking 112th in rushing. Are they going to be able to keep up here? Ole Miss ranks 9th in total offense and they sit in the top 25 in YPP, rushing, and passing while average 45 PPG. The strength of schedule is almost identical for these 2 undefeated teams yet Ole Miss has better YPG, YPP, YPC (rushing), and point differentials. The Rebels have been waiting for this one. They lost @ LSU last season 29-26 in OT with the Tigers sending the game to OT with a TD in the last 30 seconds of regulation. Ole Miss had the better stats in that game (464 yards to 421 for LSU) and head coach Lane Kiffin was flustered after that loss. “This was like, our game. We had the game and let it slip away. To go into the bye 6-1, or whatever it is, in really good shape and get healthy, would have been great. This one will be hard. It will be around forever.” Tough to beat this team at home where they’ve won 27 of their last 30 games. With this number currently sitting at -1 and -1.5 basically all we need is a home win. Let’s take the Rebels.

#914 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET - The Yankees have not only won 6 straight games and 9 of 10 and 12 of 15, they also have been frequently winning by a margin. In fact, 27 of the Yankees last 31 victories have all come by a margin of at least 2 runs! All signs point to another blowout here. Baltimore's Tomoyuki Sugano has given up some big runs in 4 of his last 5 starts including getting roughed up by the Yankees in his most recent start. So this will not be an easy task for him as Sugano again faces a red hot Yankees lineup. As for Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler, he has been pitching very well this season and has produced well in almost all his starts! The rookie hurler has allowed 1 earned run or less in 6 of his last 8 starts! Also, this included dominating Baltimore in his most recent start! While the Yankees have been red hot, the Orioles have lost 8 of 14 and 10 of the last 11 Baltimore defeats have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. That being said, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting another home blowout here! We are getting some excellent value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a pick'em price with the Yankees here. Lay the 1.5 runs with the Yankees Saturday!

#126 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +4.5 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 12 PM ET - These 2 are meeting for the first time ever and this line is off in our opinion. Our power ratings have ND as a slight road favorite in this game. That may even be too hefty as well as Bill Connelly’s respected SP+ rankings have these teams dead even on a NEUTRAL field meaning Arkansas would be favored at home. For comparison, the Razorbacks were a 4 point dog @ Ole Miss 2 weeks ago and now are getting more points, at home, vs a team we have ranked 13 spots higher than ND in our power rankings. The Irish are overvalued right now despite their 1-2 record. Arky is 2-2 with back to back losses @ Ole Miss 41-35 and @ Memphis 32-31 in a massive letdown spot. They fumbled deep inside their opponents territory late in the game in BOTH games driving for the winning score so they could easily be sitting 4-0. The Razors outgained Ole Miss and Memphis in their losses and their offense ranks 8th nationally at 552 YPG and 5th at 8.1 YPP. They are very balanced ranking in the top 20 in both rushing and passing offense while averaging 43.5 PPG facing an Irish defense that is allowing almost 33 PPG (117th). They should have lots of success vs a Notre Dame defense that has dropped way off from last year ranking 99th in the country in YPG allowed and 95th in YPP allowed. Last year’s DC Al Golden leaving for the NFL was obviously a huge loss for this team. The Irish are one of the worst pass defenses in the nation (132nd) and they struggled big time at home vs Texas A&M’s mobile QB Reed who had 360 yards passing and averaged over 5.0 YPC. Arkansas QB Green has been fantastic with 1,200 yards passing, 12 TD’s and 360 yards rushing already this season. Arky is 24-17 ATS (58.5%) as a home dog since October of 2008 and we think they have a great shot at the outright win in this one.

ASAwins #110 Oregon State +13.5 vs. Houston, Friday 10:30pm ET - If you are a value bettor and someone who bets numbers, not teams, then this play is for you. Oregon State is not in the best scheduling situation here as they are coming off instate rival Oregon and Houston is off a bye, and the number has been over-inflated as a result. The Beavers have faced the toughest schedule in the nation and are 0-4 SU. The Cougars are 3-0 SU with their toughest game at home against Colorado. Take a look at the spreads on the Beavers home games this season. They were +2.5 at home against Cal and -1-point versus Fresno State. Granted, they lost both of those games but the value in the number compared to this number with Houston is glaring. The Cougars rate about 6.5 points better than both Fresno and Cal which suggests this line should be slightly higher than a touchdown here, not almost 2 full TD's. Oregon State lost by 9-points at home to Fresno but actually outplayed them with 528 total yards of offense to 318, 30 FD’s compared to 15 and held a 15 minute time of possession advantage. Another great comparable is Houston’s game at Rice where the Cougs were favored by -14-points. Rice is one of the worst teams in college football ranking 143 per Sagarin’s. Houston did beat Rice 35-9 but the score was worse than the final statistics in that game. The Cougars have a HUGE game on deck against Texas Tech and will certainly be looking forward to that game and overlook this winless Oregon State team.

ASAwins WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -3.5 at Phoenix Mercury, 9:30PM ET - The conspiracy handicapper is coming out in me today and there is no way the WNBA doesn’t get a Finals with the best team in the league, the Lynx in it. Minnesota led by 20-points midway through the 3rd quarter last game and blew that big lead before losing in OT. The Mercury shot above expectations from beyond the arc and the Lynx shot below them. Phoenix plays great defense holding opponents to 42.3% shooting overall and 31.5% from Deep. The problem for the Mercury is that the Lynx are better defensively holding teams to 42.1% FG% overall with the best Defensive Net rating in the league. The big separator comes offensively for both teams. Minnesota has the best Offensive Net rating in the W, the Mercury are 7th. Phoenix is the 9th worst shooting team in the league, 6th in 3PT%. In comparison the Lynx are the best shooting team overall and 3PT% team so we don’t see a repeat of their 25% 3PT% in this elimination game. Minnesota is 15-8 SU on the road this season with an average plus/minus of +5.8ppg, best differential in the league. Minnesota was robbed last year in the Finals and they won’t blow this opportunity to win it all in 2025. Lay the points here with the Lynx who have won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Mercury.

French Ligue 1 Soccer #203202 ASA PLAY ON Strasbourg +0.5 (-120) over Marseille, Friday at 2:45 ET - Of course we can not bad-mouth Marseille as they just beat PSG and they are justified in being favored here. However, we do feel that this has opened up exceptional value on the goal line at plus a half goal with the home underdogs in what we perceive to be a very tight match and also one in which we expect an upset.  This is a very tough spot for Marseille. They are on the road and off a huge upset after knocking off PSG by a 1-0 count in a hard-fought battle. Ironically Strasbourg beat Marseille by that same count the last time they met here and that is the only victory in the last 6 meetings between these clubs.  That means if  you had Strasbourg at +0.5 goals in each of their last 6 meetings with Marseille you would be 6-0 last 6!  Strasbourg is 4-1 in league action including 2-0 at home.  Marseille is 3-2 in league action but 0-2 on the road.  So if you had the home team in all 5 Marseille matches in French Ligue 1 you would be 5-0 thus far on the season in their games!  That trend continues here as this is the perfect situational spot for the home dog.  This one has upset potential written all over it and, if not, at least a draw in which case we also cash this bet! We will take Strasbourg on the goal line (+0.5) in this one.

ASAwins WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -7.5 vs Phoenix Mercury, 7:30 PM ET - The Lynx won by 13 in the opener of this series and we feel its going to get worse for the Mercury before it gets better. Minnesota had a scheduling advantage going into that game as they beat Golden State in 2 games in round 1 of the playoffs. The Mercury on the other hand were coming off a big upset of the Liberty in a 3-game series. The Mercury were solid on the road this season with a 13-11 SU record and an average loss margin of -1.6ppg. The Lynx average +/- at home was +13ppg, the highest differential in the league. Phoenix plays great defense holding opponents to 42.3% shooting overall and 31.5% from Deep. The problem for the Mercury is that the Lynx are better defensively holding teams to 42.1% FG% overall with the best Defensive Net rating in the league. The big separator comes offensively for both teams. Minnesota has the best Offensive Net rating in the W, the Mercury are 7th. Phoenix is the 9th worst shooting team in the league, 6th in 3PT%. In comparison the Lynx are the best shooting team overall and 3PT% team. In the last two meetings the Lynx have held the Mercury to 13% 3-point shooting and 27%, with both games resulting in double-digit wins by the Lynx. We like at 10+ point win by the home team.

#479 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions +4.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Both these teams are 1-1 and have played almost identical strength of schedules. The Lions lost @ Green Bay (possibly the best team in the NFC) and beat Chicago handily. The Ravens lost @ Buffalo (possibly the best team in the AFC) and beat Cleveland handily. Baltimore has actually been outgained in both of their games this season including last week at home vs Cleveland. They won that game 41-17 but that was a very misleading final score as the Browns had 323 total yards to 292 for the Ravens and the YPP numbers were about dead even. The Ravens had a fumble return for a TD in that game and 3 of their 4 offensive TD’s were drives of 36 yards or less. The ground heavy Ravens rushed for only 45 yards in that game. Detroit is off a 52-21 win over Chicago, a game where they averaged nearly 9 YPP. The Lions rank in the top 10 in both total offense and total defense. The Ravens are a top 5 offense but their defense currently ranks 31st in the NFL ahead of only the NY Giants. The Lions have been great as a dog covering 10 of their last 12 in that role and head coach Dan Campbell is a money making 54-30-2 ATS in his career with Detroit. The Lions were +1.5 @ Green Bay in week 1 and now their getting +4.5 @ Baltimore? Lions can do enough offensively vs what looks like a poor Baltimore defense to keep this close and possibly pull the upset. Too many points.

#471 ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +7.5 vs Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Saints are 0-2 on the season but they’ve been very competitive in their 2 games vs playoff quality teams. They lost in week one 20-13 vs Arizona and last week 26-21 vs the Niners. They played the Cardinals basically dead even when it comes to YPP and their YPP margin is -0.2 for the season which is much better than most were anticipating after facing 2 quality opponents. QB Rattler has caught on nicely to Kellen Moore’s offense (former Dallas and Philly OC) with 3 TD’s and no turnovers on the season. The New Orleans defense has also played very well under new DC Staley (former LA Charger head coach) allowing only 4.8 YPP which is top 10 in the NFL. Seattle is 1-1 with a home loss to San Francisco and road win @ Pittsburgh. The disparity in the stats was interesting as they were dominated by the Niners (outgained by 154 yards) and dominated the Steelers outgaining Pitt by 128 yards. Their win at Pittsburgh last week might not be as impressive as we thought as the Steelers struggled to beat the NY Jets in week 1 and got outgained by 1.4 YPP in that win. The Jets followed that up by getting destroyed on the scoreboard and in the stat sheet at home vs Buffalo. Seattle has a look ahead spot as well facing NFC West rival Arizona next week. After 2 games the Saints are actually have a positive YPG differential while the Seahawks are sitting at -25 YPG. Teams that start the year 0-2 SU, have their backs against the wall in week 3 and have performed very well. Teams that are underdogs in that situation have a spread record of 37-17 (almost 70%) since 2017. We expect the Saints to hang in this game and with the number sitting more than a TD, we’ll take the points.

#461 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams +3.5 vs Philadelphia, Sunday at 1 PM ET - A rematch of last year’s NFC Divisional round of the playoffs with Philly winning at home 28-22. The Rams actually outgained the Eagles 402 to 350 in that loss but had 2 key turnovers. Philly went onto destroy Washington and KC in their next 2 games to win the Super Bowl. Both teams are 2-0 on the season but we’ve been unimpressed with the former Super Bowl Champion Eagles. They were outgained in both of their wins in total yards and YPP. Last weekend they were -1.5 YPP vs the Chiefs and still came away with an unlikely 20-17 win. Their opening week they were at home vs the Cowboys and won by 6 in a game where they were outplayed. The offense has not looked good failing to get to 5 YPP in either game this season. Philly is getting outgained by 1 YPP (which is significant) after 2 games. QB Hurts isn’t a put a team on my shoulders and pass them to a win type signal caller and they rely heavily on the run (2nd in carries per game this year and 1st last year). Problem is they are only averaging 3.9 YPC (20th in the NFL). Now they face a Rams D that is allowing 4.3 YPP (3rd in the NFL) and held them to 350 yards last season when Philly was absolutely rolling on offense. LA put up 33 points and 440 yards (7.4 YPP) on a very solid Tennessee defense last week that held Denver to 4.5 YPP a week earlier. QB Stafford is clicking with 543 yards passing on 71% completions thus far. The Rams have covered 7 in a row on the road and they are an “under the radar” 13-4 SU since mid October of last year. Let’s take the points here.

ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The battle of the back up quarterbacks, Jake Browning for the Bengals and Carson Wentz for the Vikings. That will be the headlines for that game, but the reality is the Vikings defense is by far the best unit in this game and will be the difference. In fact, we grade the Vikings change at QB to be a positive for Minnesota as JJ McCarthy has really only played well in one quarter. Did Vikings HC O’Connell maybe see this happening in training camp but they had to save face and start McCarthy? The Bengals offense is 30th YPG at just 245 and rank 29th in YPP at 4.5. Last week Browning replaced the injured Borrow early on and went 21/32 for 241 passing yards and 2 TD’s. The problem was a pair of big INT’s which nearly cost the Bengals the win. Browning has just 21 games experience and in that time has thrown 10 INT’s. Carson Wentz could give the Vikings a ‘bump’ with a veteran QB running the show. Wentz has 98 career games under his belt and could benefit from O’Connell (see Sam Darnold last season) and revive his career. Minnesota had the 2nd best DVOA ranking in 2024, the Bengals were bottom six. Cincinnati has OK defensive numbers in two games this season, but they’ve faced the Browns and Jaguars, neither are great offensive teams. Cincinnati is 2-0 and could very well be 0-2 and have won with smoke & mirrors the first two weeks. Minnesota should bounce back after a loss last week.

#345 ASA PLAY ON UTSA -4.5 at Colorado State, Saturday at 9:30pm ET - Colorado State has been gouged by opponents rushing attacks this season allowing 173 Rushing Yards Per Game at 4.1 Yards Per Carry. These numbers come against FCS Northern Colorado (1-9 SU their last 10 games) and Washington. Washington wasn’t even good rushing the football in 2024, ranking in the 99th in total rushing a year ago. CSU ranked 84th last season in stopping the run, allowing an average of 164.3 YPG rushing. UTSA will have no problems running the ball against this defense with an offense that is averaging 6.0 Yards Per Play, runs for 217 YPG and 6.4 Yards Per Carry. The Roadrunners (one of the best mascots in college sports) ran for 203 yards against an SEC opponent in Texas A&M back in week 2. Colorado State was favored by 35-points last week against No. Colorado and barely won 21-17 after trailing 0-10 at halftime. UNCO is one of the worst rated teams in FCS. The Rams really don’t do anything well offensively ranking 108th in total YPG (318) and Yards Per Play at 4.8. UTSA has been a road favorite just 3 times since the start of 2024 with a 1-2 ATS record BUT they’ve won those games by an average of +8.7PPG. This line should be north of -7 so grab the value with the Roadrunners over the Rams.

#359 ASA PLAY ON Arizona State +2.5 at Baylor, Saturday at 7:30pm ET - This is a great spot to back the Sun Devils who have a clear rushing edge in this game against the Bears. ASU is 21st in rushing at 232 YPG at a 6.1 YPC clip. These numbers are not a fluke as this team rushed for 200ypg in 2024-05 which was the 18th highest average in college football a year ago. The Bears defense has shown some cracks against the run this season allowing 188.3 YPG rushing (115th) and 4.4 YPC (94th). Granted, Baylor has faced a couple of good teams in SMU and Auburn, but those two teams were average in rushing a year ago. Baylor was underdogs at SMU and a +1-point home dog to Auburn. The Mustangs rate lower than ASU in our power rankings, Auburn is slightly higher than the Sun Devils. The Bears running game has averaged 149 YPG (85th) and 4.0 YPC (92nd) this season and that includes a 223-rushing yard game against Samford last week. Sticking to this rushing angle, ASU is allowing just 4.6 YPP (45th) overall, 2.7 YPC (21st) and 91 rushing yards per game (26th). That means with their base defense they will force the Bears into a one-dimensional offense. Arizona State has some questionable defensive passing statistics, but they are averaging 3.7 sacks per game (7th most) and can pressure Baylor QB Robertson (2 INT’s this season) into some errant throws. We are grabbing the points with the underdog that can dominate the time of possession with their potent rushing attack.

#332 ASA PLAY ON Duke -2.5 over NC State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Duke is 1-2 on the season while NC State is a perfect 3-0. Yet this line opened Duke -2 and moved to -3 very quickly. That speaks volumes and we agree with the move. NC State is on the road for the 2nd straight week after topping what looks like a bad Wake Forest team last week. The Wolfpack got down 14-0 but took advantage of Wake turnovers and won the game 34-24. Because of the Deacs giveaways (2 to 0 for NCSU), NC State was able to run 76 offensive plays to just 59 for WF. This is the same Wake team that nearly lost at home in their opener to a bad Kennesaw State team 10-9. For reference, Kennesaw joined the FBS level last season and they have a 3-12 record since then with 1 of those wins coming vs an FCS team. NCSU’s other wins were by 7 at home vs ECU and by 3 at home vs Virginia. In those wins they outgained East Carolina by only 10 yards and they were outgained by Virginia by 100 yards. The Devils are 1-2 and their 2 losses were vs top 10 ranked Illinois and last week @ Tulane (we were on Duke). The Blue Devils outgained both of those teams in those 2 losses and we think they are undervalued. They are in an absolute must win spot at home with 4 of their next 5 games coming on the road. Their outstanding QB Mensah already has over 1,000 yards passing and 8 TD’s this season. He’ll be facing an NC State defense that ranks 129th in pass defense, 107th in total defense, and 107th in YPP allowed. After 3 games, Duke has better YPP numbers both offensively and defensively and they’ve beaten the Wolfpack each of the last 2 years by 10 and 16 points. Duke is desperate and we think they are the better overall team despite the current record. Lay it.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -2.5 vs. Phoenix Mercury – 8pm ET - The Liberty have had an up-and-down season but still have a roster capable of winning it all this season. Injuries throughout the season certainly played a big role in their volatile play at times. They are now healthy, experienced in these situations and at home. New York is 17-5 SU at home this season after going 16-4 SU in the regular season last season, 6-1 in the playoffs. Phoenix has a solid roster led by Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper but New York exposed them in the first game of this series with a +17 rebound advantage. New York’s rebounding numbers this season are skewed because of their injury issues, let’s not forget this team was the best rebounding team in the league last season. New York is a wallet busting 5-16-1 AST in their last 22 games BUT in twelve of those ATS losses they were favored by 4 or more points. This is a great opportunity to buy low on the Liberty at home who had an average scoring differential of plus +7.0ppg at home in 2024, +7.7ppg in the playoffs last season and have a +9.6ppg average margin of victory at home this season.

#278 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -2.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 7 PM ET - We like this situation for the Texans. They are coming of a 14-9 road loss @ LA Rams while the Bucs are playing the 2nd of back to back road games after winning 23-20 in Atlanta last Sunday. In their win @ Atlanta, Tampa was outgained by nearly 100 yards and only averaged 4.6 YPP. Now they face what we consider one of the top few defenses in the NFL that allowed only 296 yards last week to the Rams. The Texans led 9-7 @ half in LA last week and came away with a 14-9 loss. Now they are in must win mode at home as teams that start 0-2 only make the playoff 11% of the time since 1990. The Texans weren’t impressive on offense last week @ LA but their defense was very good and we expect them to be one of the top units in the NFL this year. TB’s best offensive lineman, LT Wirfs, and top WR Godwin are most likely still out which won’t help vs this top notch defense. Dating back 15+ seasons, teams in week 2 that start the season 0-1 vs a team that is 1-0 cover almost 58% of the time. We’ve got a team that has made the playoffs in back to back seasons in that spot here and they are at home. With this number under a FG, we like Houston to get the cover.

#275 ASA NFL PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +3.5 over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 8:20pm ET - If you haven’t figured it out yet, Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell is really good. The Vikings allowed QB Sam Darnold to walk this past summer knowing JJ McCarthy would be serviceable. Minnesota got a road win in the opener but that was over a Bears team that won just 5 games a year ago and still has some work to do. The Vikings had just 254 total yards in the game with 134 passing yards on 20 attempts. Minnesota’s defense was really good last season but looked mediocre in their opener against a Bears offense that was last in the league in yards per play a year ago at 4.5YPP and total yards per game at 283YPG. Atlanta should have won their opener against the Bucs as they completely outplayed Tampa Bay for most of the game. The Falcons put up 358 total yards with QB Penix Jr throwing for 289 passing yards. Atlanta held the explosive Bucs offense to 4.7YPP and 260 total yards but came up short on the scoreboard 20-23. In 2024 these two teams met on this field and the Vikings won 42-21 as a 6-point favorite. Atlanta turned the ball over 3 times to zero for the Vikings and then QB Darnold threw 5 TD’s. We don’t see the conservative Vikings offense scoring anywhere near as many points in this game and won’t be surprised by a Falcons outright win.

#274 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET -  Super Bowl revenge game here for KC.  It was an embarrassing blowout with the Eagles winning 40-22.  However, KC actually averaged more YPP but had 3 turnovers (Eagles ran 21 more offensive snaps due to that) and those giveaways led to 17 Philly points including a pick 6.  In other words, it was quite as lopsided as the score might have indicated.  Neither team was overly impressive in week 1.  The Eagles beat Dallas 24-20 but they were outgained 5.5 YPP to 4.9 YPP and 5.4 YPC (rushing) to 4.2 YPC.  They were very fortunate to come away with that win at home as 8 point favorites.  Their defense didn’t look anywhere near last year’s level (they lost a number of key players) and the new offense with coordinator Kellen Moore (now Saints head coach) barely put up 300 yards.  KC lost to the Chargers in Brazil last Friday 27-21.  The offense was solid averaging 6.0 YPP and while the defense was very solid vs the Run (Chargers averaged 3.6 YPC) they couldn’t slow down QB Herbert in that one.  This is a much better match up as Philadelphia likes to run the ball and QB Hurts strength isn’t putting a team on his back and throwing it all over the field.  Mahomes has been a fantastic dog with a 15-2 ATS record in his career in that role and this is just the 2nd time he’s been a home dog in his entire career.  The Chiefs are 28-5 SU their last 33 home games and we’re getting points here.  We think both teams will regress this season, however we can’t pass up KC getting points at home.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -7.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 3pm ET - The Dream have a team built that is capable of winning it all this season, the Fever are a MASH unit and scratched and clawed just to get into the playoffs. We expect Atlanta to carry over their season end momentum of 6 straight wins and beat this Fever team by double-digits. Atlanta has won AND covered 8 of their last ten games overall with a 5-1 record in their last six home games. In that home game stretch they have impressive wins over New York and Minnesota, and the lone loss came to the red hot Aces who have won 16 straight games to close the season. Indiana is really banged up right now with three starters out for the season including Caitlyn Clark. They managed a playoff spot but also benefitted from a soft schedule down the stretch which included games against the Sky and Mystics (who quit on the season) and a Lynx team that sat all of their starters. Atlanta had the 3rd best Net rating at home this season at +11.8, Indiana had a Net road rating of -1.8. The big advantage the Dream have is on the boards with the best rebound percentage in the league compared to the Fever who rank 9th. Kelsey Mitchell can only carry the Fever so far, they are outmanned in this one…lay the points with Atlanta.

#906 ASA PLAY ON San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-153) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET - The Rockies managed to steal a game yesterday as they had Gordon come up with an unusual strong start on the mound plus they scored 4 runs in the 4th inning (all with 2 outs!) in the 4-2 win.  Colorado is 0-5 the last 5 times when entering a game off a win and all 5 losses were by at least a 2-run margin.  We have no hesitation in laying the juice here for the run line at 1.5 runs as this is a complete pitching mismatch in addition to being an overall team mismatch!  Colorado entered this series on another 6-game losing streak and 17-55 on the road this season and 14-77 against teams with a winning record.  The Padres entered this series 45-27 at home and still have a shot at winning the NL West.  One surprising defeat to open up a series certainly does not change all the key dynamics here.  This includes a pitching mismatch here as the Padres Dylan Cease had a good start at Colorado in his most recent start and now gets them here at home where he is 6-3 with a 3.89 ERA this season.  Also, Cease has held hitters to a .222 batting average since the All-star break while striking out 66 in 48 innings!  Bradley Blalock gets the call for the Rockies here simply because they don't have a lot of options.  Blalock is 1-5 with an 8.60 ERA in the minors this season and 1-4 with an 8.62 ERA in the majors this season!  Last month, before being sent down to the minors, he had 11 walks and just 6 strikeouts in his 3 outings.  Also, he faced the Padres one time this season and it was one time too many for him as he allowed 12 earned runs in under 4 innings on the mound!  You can see why we are expecting a dominating home win here. A blowout is likely here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#183 ASA PLAY ON Duke +2 over Tulane, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This line opened with Tulane at -3.5 to -4 range and has dropped to -1.5 as of this writing.  We agree with the move and our power ratings have Duke as a slight favorite here so we still feel there is value on the Blue Devils.  We think the Green Wave are a bit overvalued after their solid season a year ago, however they only beat 2 teams last year that finished the season with a winning record (Navy & Louisiana).  So far this year, they’ve taken down Northwestern at home (Cats had 5 turnovers to 0 for Tulane) and last week they beat South Alabama 33-31.  The Green Wave got down 14-0 in that game and were outgained by the Jaguars.  Now they take a big step up facing a very good Duke team that is 1-1 on the season.  Their loss came last week vs Top 10 Illinois and the final score of 45-19 was extremely misleading.  The Blue Devils led 14-13 at half and outgained the Illini despite running 10 fewer offensive plays.  5 Duke turnovers were the killer in that one (0 for Illinois).  After leading at halftime, Duke had 5 offensive possessions in the 2nd half which resulted in 3 turnovers, 1 shut out on downs, and 1 TD.  The Illini scored 28 points directly off Duke giveaways.  Duke QB Mensah has been fantastic through 2 games completing 73% of his passes for over 700 yards and 5 TD’s.  That could be a problem for a Tulane defense that allowed South Alabama to throw for 231 yards on nearly 10 yards per attempt last week.  Mensah will also have a little extra motivation as he was Tulane’s QB last season.  Defensively they cause problems with an elite pass rush.  The Devils already have 7 sacks and 20 TFL’s after ranking 4th and 2nd nationally in those 2 stats a year ago.  Let’s remember that Duke was also very good last year (9-4 record) and they thrived as a dog going 5-2 ATS winning 4 of those outright.  We’ll call for another SU win here for the Blue Devils. 

#167 ASA PLAY ON Vanderbilt +3.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - We will be the first to admit that we are wrong and that was certainly the case last week when we back Virginia Tech over this same Vanderbilt team. It was a 2-part equation where we overvalued VT and undervalued Vandy. We will make a correction this week and will be on the Dores plus the points at South Carolina. We think South Carolina is a bit overvalued right now with a 2-0 record. Fact is, they’ve been outgained in both games including vs South Carolina State last week. The Gamecocks look like they rolled to an easy 38-10 win in that game vs an FCS team, however they only had 253 total yards and scored 21 points on 2 punt returns and 1 fumble return for a TD. A week earlier, South Carolina topped Virginia Tech 24-11 on a neutral site in Atlanta and they had an 80 yard punt return for TD in that one as well. Thus, in 2 games, the Gamecocks are averaging just 17 offensive PPG. We have a solid reference point in their game vs Va Tech, that’s because Vandy faced the Hokies on the road last week. The Commodores dominated that game 44-20 outgaining VT 490-248 and outrushing them 7.1 YPC to 3.7 YPC. Again, that was a true road game for Vandy. A week earlier Va Tech outgained South Carolina and the rushing stats were almost dead even (3.2 YPC to 3.1 YPC). The Commodores were embarrassed by South Carolina last year and they’ve been waiting for this one. Vandy head coach Lea after last year’s loss, “Obviously I’m frustrated ... coming up short in the game, frustrated also with the feeling that we didn’t represent ourselves the way that we wanted to ... and playing to an identity.” The Dores are in a spot they love to be in, that’s an undervalued underdog. Since the start of last season, they’ve covered 9 of 11 as an underdog winning 6 of those outright. They are also 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 meetings with Southc Carolina with the Cocks only cover during that stretch coming last year. We give Vanderbilt a great shot at the upset here.

#109 ASA PLAY ON Kansas St PK -115 over Arizona, Friday at 9 PM ET - KSU is in a must win spot here after starting the season 1-2. They were favored to win the Big 12 heading into the season and can’t afford another “L”. They blew last week’s home game after leading 13-0 late in the 2nd quarter vs Army losing 24-21. Army is tough offense to prepare for in 1 week and the KSU defense held them to 3.4 YPC. The Cadets had a LOT of breaks to win that game including recovering a sneak onside kick in the 4th quarter and going 6 of 7 on 4th down. Army had more yardage overall but they rank 82 offensive snaps to just 43 for the Wildcats so KSU actually had a large YPP advantage (5.7 to 4.0). Let’s not forget that KSU played a very good Iowa State team to the wire in Ireland in late August but lost 24-21 despite outgaining the now 3-0 Cyclones 383 to 313. They also outrushed ISU 4.1 YPC to just 2.8. Arizona is 2-0 but they’ve faced 2 cupcakes beating Hawaii (who had 5 turnovers) and Weber State. They are already +7 turnovers in their first 2 games. In last week’s win over Weber State the Wildcats only averaged 3.8 YPC and allowed 3.7 which is concerning as they take a big step up vs a solid KSU rushing attack and rush stop unit. When these 2 faced off last year KSU ran for 235 yards and held Arizona to 56 in a 31-7 win. Kansas State is backed into a corner here after 2 losses and we still feel they are the better team. We should get a huge effort here.

ASA NFL play on Washington Commanders +3.5 at Green Bay Packers, 8:20pm ET - There are 3 contenders in the NFC this season and these are two of them along with Philadelphia. Washington put up 432 total yards last week against the Giants at 7.0 yards per play. They had balance with 220 yards rushing and 212 passing. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is special and will be a multiple MVP winner before his career is over. The Packers made a huge splash with the trade from Micah Parsons, but the Commanders also improved their defense in the offseason and might have one of the best D-lines in the league. Green Bay played a great game against a division rival and got an emotional home win over the Lions last week. The Packers averaged 5.7YPP and managed 266 total yards of offense. They were pedestrian in the ground game with just 78 yards rushing. The Packers defense looked great but let’s consider the Lions lost a great O-coordinator in Ben Johnson and have a statue in QB Goff who was sacked 3 times. It’s going to be much harder to get their hands on the mobile Daniels in this one. Washington held the Giants to 3.9YPP and 231 total yards with a majority of those coming late when the game was out of reach for New York. As long as this is over a field goal we like the Commanders.

#461 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +6 over Washington, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This number opened -7.5 and despite 50/50 split on the actual bets, it has dropped a point and a half. That’s because, despite the 50/50 wagers, over 80% of the money at a few sharp books we track has come in on the Giants. NYG are the sharp side and we agree 100%. We think this is an overvalued vs undervalued situation to open the season. The Giants had major issues at QB last year with 4 different signal callers starting a game at some point last season. Russell Wilson has been very good in NYG camp and brings some stability to an offense that has some very talented playmakers. Wilson has been fantastic in his career as an underdog with a 44-27 ATS record and he should have some confidence here as he led the Steelers to a win over Washington last year. This rivalry has been very closely with 1 score games in 9 of the last 11 meetings. That includes last year when the Giants, who had only 3 wins, took the Commanders, who had 12 wins, to the wire in both match ups losing by a combined 8 points. Washington took the NFL by storm last year and we look for some regression in 2025. They had some breaks throughout the season facing 5 back up QB’s and they won 9 of their 13 one score games. Week 1 Divisional Dogs have been fantastic with a 31-16 ATS mark since 2016. On top of that, Washington has been a terrible favorite of 6 or more points going 6-20 ATS in that role dating back to the 2008 season. We think this one will be tight, as they usually are when these 2 meet, so we’ll grab the points.

ASA WNBA play on Golden State Valkyries +7.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx, 830pm ET - The Lynx are off a rare loss in their last game at Las Vegas and now face a Valkyries team that just locked up a spot in the playoffs. Minnesota is the #1 seed in the playoffs and are now more focused on being healthy than anything else. They have beaten this Golden State team twice but both games were relatively close with the Lynx winning by 11-points in each. Minnesota is just 2-3 SU in their last three road games while GST has won four in a row at home. The expansion Valkyries are 14-7 SU on their home court this season with an average point differential of +6.8ppg. Minnesota has been a solid road team with a 13-7 SU record and an average +/- of +6.7ppg, which isn’t enough to get a cover in this one. The Lynx are off a big showdown in Vegas with the Aces and have a marquee matchup with the Fever next so don’t be surprised if they overlook this GST team they’ve beaten twice already this season. Grab the points with the Valkyries.

#398 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +6.5 over Arizona State, Saturday at 7:30pm ET - We will grab the points in this game with an improved Bulldog team and play against an ASU team we have rated much lower than public expectations. The vast majority of Books are carrying this number at 6.5, but one Sharp Book has lowered their line to -6, a clear indication the Sharps are on Miss State. The value in the number is obvious as these two teams met last year in Scottsdale, AZ and ASU was favored by the same number. That was a tight game with the Sun Devils holding on late for a 7-point win. MSU QB Blake Shapen played in just 4 games last season which is a big reason the Bulldogs finished with just 2 wins on the season. Shapen did play in the game against ASU last year going 18/28 with 2 TD’s. The Miss State defense looked much better in their opener this season holding Southern Mississippi to just 102 rushing yards and 17-points. The Bulldogs won’t have to face Sun Devils RB Skattebo this season who gouged them for 262 rushing yards a year ago. Arizona State is coming off a 38-19 win at home over Northern Arizona, but the first downs were nearly even and NAU was able to put up 331 total yards of offense with a time of possession advantage.

#384 ASA PLAY ON Toledo -7 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 7 PM ET- Toledo looks to bounce back at home after losing @ Kentucky 24-16 last Saturday. The Rockets went into SEC country and actually outgained the Wildcats in that loss. Now they are back at home in the Glass Bowl where they have a 68-18 SU record over their last 86 (since 2010). Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is 2-0 on the season but they’ve faced one of the worst FBS teams, Sam Houston State who had gone through a complete coaching overhaul, and North Alabama who had just a 3-9 record at the FCS level last season. Both those games were at home for WKY as well. This is a revenger for Toledo as well as they lost @ Western KY last year 26-21 as a 2.5 point favorite. The Rockets led 21-12 entering the 4th quarter and veteran QB Gleason, who is back this year, threw an interception at the goal line late which would have given them the win. The Hilltoppers have only 3 starters back from that team while Toledo has 11 starters returning. We have the Rockets rated 30th nationally in returning production while Western Kentucky ranks 121st in that category. We have Toledo rated as the best team in the MAC this year and this is a perfect spot to back them at home on Saturday.

#333 ASA PLAY ON Baylor +3 over SMU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Bears are off a home loss vs Auburn but they outgained the Tigers 483 to 415. Baylor left plenty of points off the board getting stopped on downs at the Auburn 3 yard line and 11 yard line. We were a bit concerned the Bears were dominated on the ground, however they are now facing an SMU team that only had 140 yards rushing vs East Texas A&M while giving up 107. The Mustangs 42-13 win might look impressive but a couple of things to keep in mind here. First they were favored by 50 points and won by only 29 points. Secondly, SMU scored only 21 points on offense with the other points coming from 2 interception returns for TD’s and a 76 yard punt return. They only outgained East Texas A&M by 50 yards. Baylor had high hopes for this season (and still do) with 14 returning starters (5th most in FBS) and coming off a season where they won their final 6 regular season games before losing to LSU in their bowl game. They rank in the top 10 in our returning production power ratings while SMU ranks outside the top 40. Short travel here for Baylor and they are in a must win spot after last week’s loss. We think the Bears are the better team and getting points. We’ll take it.

ASA play on LA Chargers +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:00PM ET - This is a very competitive series between a pair of longtime rivals in the AFC West and points are a premium. Last year we had two low scoring games between these two with the Chiefs winning both 19-17 and 17-10. Going back 10 games we see that 8 of the ten have been one score games with 5 of those decided by exactly 3-points. Kansas City finished the regular season 15-2 SU but they had an average margin of victory of only +3.4ppg. In fact, in comparison, the Chargers won 11 games in the regular season and they had an average point differential of +5.9ppg. Los Angeles allowed the fewest points per game during the regular season last year at 17.7ppg with the 9th best DVOA ranking defensively. They allowed the 7th fewest yards per completion but had a tough time stopping the run ranking 26th in yards per carry allowed. The Chargers were around league average in terms of yards per play, slightly above average in 3rd down conversion percentage. L.A. in Harbaugh’s second year should see significant improvement with Herbert under center and capable of trading points with KC and Mahomes. The Chiefs obviously still have Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Kelce and Chris Jones and there is still gas in the tank, but their average point differential last season is a clear indicator they are not as dominate as they once were. We are going Division Dog in this one…grab the points at a FG or more with the Chargers.

ASA NFL play on Dallas Cowboys +8.5 at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20PM ET - The Eagles are drawing a ton of public attention, especially at several very public sports books, so we’ll bet contrarian here with the Cowboys. Philadelphia handled the Cowboys rather easily in both meetings last season winning 41-7 and 34-6. The Cowboys were without starting QB Dak Prescott in both and forced to play Cooper Rush and Trey Lance. In the second meeting last season, in Philly, the Eagles were favored by -7.5 points which is basically the same number here with Prescott. You won’t find a ton of support statistically for the Cowboys here if you are basing your betting strategy on last years numbers. We expect the Cowboys offense to have success here with WR’s CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and TE Ferguson facing an Eagles secondary that has some holes with the loss of CB Slay and S Gardner-Johnson. Philadelphia will also have a tough time pressuring Prescott without Milton Willams and Josh Sweat on the defensive front. The Cowboys defense took a hit with the Parsons trade but they did get Kenny Clark in return who can help fill the void. Both teams have been very good playing within the Division with the Eagles 10-3 SU, +9.0ppg, the Cowboys are 8-4 SU +8.7ppg. As soon as this line moved to a TD+ on the Eagles we were betting Dallas. Grab the points.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -7 vs. LA Sparks, 7:30 PM ET - It seems most experts are sleeping on the Dream, which has a roster capable of challenging the Lynx if the two teams make it to the Finals. Atlanta is tied with the Aces for the 2nd best record in the W at 26-14. They are 13-6 SU at home with an average margin of victory of +8.4ppg. The Sparks have a decent overall road record of 11-8 SU with an average MOV of -0.8ppg. In terms of Net rating the Dream are +8.0, the 2nd highest number in the league, the Sparks have a Net rating of -2.6 which ranks 9th. The two teams are relatively even statistically offensively, but the Dream hold a massive advantage defensively with the 2nd best defensive Net rating compared to the Sparks 10th DNR. Los Angeles is coming off a big come-from-behind win at Seattle on Monday and will be playing their 4th game in six days. Atlanta has won two straight games after an ugly home loss to the Aces. We are getting great value in this line as the Dream were recently favored by this exact same number at home against a much better Liberty team and they won that game by 16-points. This sets up for a blowout win by the home team.

ASAwins WNBA play on NY Liberty -6 at Golden State Valkyries, 10PM ET - Reports indicate Liberty All-Star guard Sabrina Ionescu should be back in the lineup tonight against the Valkyries. New York has not played to their usual standards in the past month (mainly without Stewart) but now are healthy and should ramp up for the playoffs. Golden State has won 3 straight games but they’ve come against a banged-up Fever team, the Mystics and Wings so we’re not overly impressed with that 3-0 stretch. In fact, prior to that winning streak they had lost 3 in a row to teams more like Liberty’s caliber. GST lost by 16 at home to the Dream, lost by 7 at home versus the Mercury and they lost by 9-points at Phoenix. These two teams haven’t met since May/June and the Liberty have won all 3 meetings. New York is a championship level team and is much better offensively than the Valkyries. We like New York to bounce back after a humiliating loss in Phoenix and fighting for home court advantage in the looming playoffs.

ASAwins WNBA play on the LA Sparks +8.5 at Seattle Storm, 10PM ET - We were on and lost with the Sparks as a big favorite last night but now we catch them getting a big number from the Storm. We don’t mind the scheduling situation here as the Sparks played last night, but have been at home for a stretch and it’s a short travel. Seattle isn’t in the ideal situation here either as this will be their 4th game in seven days, 5th in nine days. The Storm have been a bet against team as a big favorite as they sport a 4-9 ATS record when laying 7 or more points this season. Seattle is 9-10 SU on their home court with an average +/- of +1.6ppg. The Sparks are 10-8 SU away from home with an average point differential of -1.2ppg. This has been a tight series with 5 of the last six games being decided by 8-points or less. Take the dog here.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks-7.5 vs. Washington Mystics, 8PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Sparks here as they have been off since the 29th and playing their 4th straight home game. Washington on the other hand, played at New York Thursday, at Golden State last night and now face the Sparks without rest. Washington has played two games this season without rest and they lost both, one badly by 16-points. The Mystics haven’t been a great road team this season to begin with as they stand 6-13 SU away from home with a negative average point differential of minus -4.8ppg. Los Angeles has lost two straight home games but they came at the hands of Indiana and Phoenix. Washington won the most recent meeting between these two teams, but the first two clashes resulted in 7 and 19-point wins by the Sparks. L.A. is healthy and rested and can win this game by double-digits against a road weary Mystics team.

#231 ASA PLAY ON Notre Dame -3 over Miami FL, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - We’re set for the ESPN 30 for 30 documentary “Catholics vs Convicts” rematch on Sunday in Miami. That film was based on a 1988 match up between these 2 teams with a Lou Holtz led ND team topping a Jimmy Johnson led Miami team 31-30. We like the Irish in this one. While it is a home game for Miami, they have one of the weakest home field advantages in CFB playing in the Dolphins Hard Rock Stadium which is 30 miles from the U of M campus. We expect the well followed Irish to have just as many fans as the Canes if not more. Both teams have had plenty of time to prep for this huge match up which gives Notre Dame a big edge here as they have the MUCH better coaching staff. Cane head coach Cristobal is a very good recruiter but an outright poor coach. His spread record since taking over at Miami is 14-24 ATS and he’s already lost 6 games outright as a 7 point or more favorite (in 3 years) include 2 losses as a 20 point or more chalk. They had arguably the best QB in college last year (Cam Ward), were favored in every game, and still had 3 losses. Notre Dame lost to OSU in the National Championship game and they return 12 starters from that team. Unlike Cristobal, the Irish head coach Freeman has a stellar 29-12 ATS mark. ND will start a redshirt freshman QB Carr but he is surrounded by a strong O Line and one of the top RB’s in the country (Love). We think they’ll have one of the top defenses in the country as well. Miami has transfer QB Beck from Georgia under center this year. We feel he is vastly overrated. Miami also lost their top 6 pass catchers from last year and their top RB Martinez who had over 1,000 yards on the ground. Beyond QB, and we’re not so sure Miami has a huge advantage there, we feel ND has an edge at most positions and coaching will be a big factor here as discussed above. We’ll lay this small number with the Irish.

#193 ASA PLAY ON UTEP +6.5 over Utah State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We like UTEP to be greatly improved this year coming off a poor 3-9 season last year. It was head coach Walden is in his 2nd year and he brings back both coordinators so they have some stability. His team improved throughout the year in 2024 and over their final 6 games they were 3-3 with 2 tight losses by 4 and 7 points. So they are carrying some positive momentum into this season. Utah State, on the other hand, has had a complete turnover in their program. Veteran coach Bronco Mendenhall takes over and while he is a solid coach, this turnaround will take some time with new systems on both sides of the ball. Utah State was just 4-8 last season (3-3 at home). Mendenhall has only 1 offensive starter and 3 defensive starters back to work with. The defense was brutal last year allowing 40 PPG (129th) and it won’t be easy meshing nearly a full new team early in the season, most who haven’t played together. UTEP has 2 very good options at QB including former USC & Boise State transfer Nelson who was a 5* coming out of HS. He will start this game, however the Miners also have Locklear as an option at QB and he was their starter last year. USU defense allowed 40+ points 7 times last year including 50 or more 3 times. Tough to lay almost a TD with that defense. USU has covered just once the last 7 times they were favored and we’ll take the points with an improving and undervalued UTEP team.

#203 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +5.5 over Tulane, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We think Northwestern, coming off a disappointing 4-8 season, will surprise some people this year. They have a very solid, veteran defense and their QB Stone (transfer from SMU) gives them potentially their best player at that key position in a while. Head coach Braun has raved about his defense’s experience and depth and we expect to be very good. Stone is a 5th year senior who threw for 3,200 yards and 28 TD’s two years ago @ SMU before losing his starting job to Jennings last year. He’s hungry after last year’s situation and he has an impressive 13-3 career record as a starter. Tulane is coming off a 9-3 regular season, however they were rolled in the AAC Championship game (35-14 loss vs Army) and in their bowl game (33-8 loss vs Florida). They only have 2 starters back on offense and their biggest loss was at QB when freshman phenom Mensah transferred to Duke. Nobody in the Tulane camp has separated themselves at that key position and a starter has not been named which is concerning. BYU transfer Retzlaff might be a perfect fit later in the season but he just got on campus in late July and is still learning the ropes. In the meantime, it might be Sullivan who has been a backup / part time starter in his career which included a stint @ Northwestern. The Green Wave simply don’t have a lot of experience back from last year’s team and we think they are overvalued due to last year’s run. They rolled over a number of poor opponents last year and the only 2 teams that beat that had a winning record in the regular season were Navy and Louisiana. The Cats have been great as a short underdog racking up an 18-5 ATS record as a puppy of less than a TD (dates back to 2014). This one stays close and NW should have a shot at the upset.

#158 ASA PLAY ON San Jose State -13.5 over Central Michigan, Friday at 10:30 PM ET - Long travel for CMU and they are breaking in entirely new systems on both sides of the ball. New HC Drinkall was Army’s offensive line coach last year and this is his first FBS head coaching gig. Despite Drinkall coming over from run heavy Army, the Chips will mainly run no huddle, shotgun or pistol look. We’re not sure their personnel fit this change and it will take some time to get this offense running smoothly. QB Labas played in 6 games last year and wasn’t great completing 58% of his passes with 7 TD’s and 7 picks. We should have a solid QB edge here with SJSU’s Eget who ended last season and college football’s 18th most efficient QB. The Spartans are the more stable program right now with HC Niumatalolo (formerly at Navy) entering his 2nd season after leading them to a bowl win last year. Both the OC and DC are back as well. They were 5-2 at home last season with their only losses coming at the hands of Boise State and UNLV, the 2 top teams in the MWC who met in the Conference Championship game. They scored 30+ points in 4 of their home games and we look for their offense to be very solid again this season. CMU has lost 9 straight road games and 12 of their last 13. They lost most of their key offensive weapons and with a new system in place, we’re not sure they can keep up in this game. Lay it.

#167 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -4 over Colorado, Friday at 8 PM ET - Continuity! Georgia Tech has it, Colorado does not. The Buffs relied heavily on Shadeur Sanders and Travis Hunter last season and both have moved on to the NFL. Coach Sanders philosophy is recruiting through the transfer portal which means he has a ton of turnover on his roster and now must meld players from other systems into his own. That takes time. Georgia Tech is in Coach Key’s 3rd season and has shown steady improvement under his tutelage. The Yellowjackets have had back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in a decade. Veteran quarterback Haynes King (2,114 passing yards, 14 TDs, 2 INTs, 587 rushing yards, 11 TDs) and running back Jamal Haynes (944 yards, 9 TDs, 5.6YPC) form a dynamic backfield. The Jackets had nice balance offensively last season averaging 28.9 points per game (55th in FBS), 415.3 total yards (36th), 227.6 passing yards (67th), 187.7 rushing yards (26th). Liberty transfer quarterback Kaidon Salter (5,283 passing yards, 59 TDs, 1,697 rushing yards at Liberty) takes over as a dual-threat starter for the Buffs, but must play behind a rebuilt offensive line. The key in this game is Georgia Tech’s rushing attack. Georgia Tech’s run-heavy offense (187.7 rushing YPG, 26th; 56.2% rushing plays, 37th) should exploit a Buffalo run defense that is average at best. Colorado’s run defense allowed 151 yards per game (61st) and 3.9 yards per carry (37th) in 2024. Tech had a few impressive wins on their resume a year ago and played Georgia to the final whistle in a 42-44 loss. We give a slight edge to Georgia Tech defensively and a sizable advantage offensively.

ASA WNBA play on: Seattle Storm +9 at Minnesota Lynx - 8PM ET - The Seattle Storm are coming off an embarrassing 20-point loss to the Indiana Fever, which should fuel their motivation to rebound against the Minnesota Lynx. The Storm have been favored in 18 of their last 20 games, making this +9.5-point spread seem inflated. For context, they were just +1.5 at Atlanta and +1 at Las Vegas, a clear indication the oddsmakers may be overreacting to their recent loss, or Minnesota’s home court advantage. This is the fourth meeting between these teams this season. The Storm won one game, while the Lynx took the other two by a combined nine points. With Seattle’s talent and pride on the line, they’re likely to keep this game closer than the spread suggests.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -2.5 vs. Las Vegas Aces, 7:30 PM ET - Atlanta enters with momentum posting an 8-2 SU record over their last 10 games. The Aces however have won 11-straight. Despite a 10-0 record in the last ten games for the Aces, the Dream have the superior net rating of +14.1 compared to Las Vegas’ +11.2 in that 10-game set. In their most recent meeting in Las Vegas, the Aces edged out a 2-point victory, but Atlanta struggled, shooting only 40% from the field and 28% from three. At home, the Dream shoot significantly better, averaging 44.4% from the field and 31.7% from three-point range. With two extra days of rest compared to the Aces, who are playing their third consecutive road game, Atlanta is well-positioned for a solid home win and cover. Atlanta is 12-5 SU in their own building with an average +/- of +8.5PPG. Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -4 at LA Sparks – 10PM ET - These two teams are close offensively with the Sparks having the 3rd best Offensive net rating at 106.3, the Mercury have an ONR of 103.3. Defensively it’s not close as the Mercury have the 4th best Defensive Net rating in the W at 99.7 and the Sparks rank 11th in DNR at 109. L.A. has the 12th worst FG% defense in the league and 11th worst 3PT% defense. Nobody gives up more points per game than the Sparks. Phoenix has the 4th best FG% defense allowing just 42.3% by opponents, they are better defending the 3PT line ranking 3rd in the league. Phoenix has won both meetings this season which is a clear indication the Sparks don’t match up. Both teams are 6-3 SU in their last nine games but the Mercury have faced a tougher schedule. Don’t be intimidated by laying the points on the road with Phoenix as they are 10-8 SU away from home. The Sparks have a 7-10 SU home record and a negative point differential in those games by an average of -3.1PPG. Lay it here with the better all around team.

#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - The Nationals lost 3-2 yesterday to the Phillies courtesy of a solo homer in the top of the 9th (when the game was 3-1) and the 1-run bomb prevented what would have been the 15th straight time that a Washington loss was by a margin of at least 2 runs.  The point is that we have no hesitation in laying the run line here as the Yankees were already at home and got the much-needed 7-2 win over the Red Sox here in the Bronx last night.  So the Yankees can build off the momentum of that victory and we take advantage of a Nats team that has had a very rough time against good teams this season.  In fact, Washington is 26-45 against teams that currently have a winning record on the season.  The Yankees are 68-49 this season in games not played on artificial turf and they are happy to be staying home for another series here.  We really like the way rookie Cam Schlittler is throwing for the Yankees right now as he has allowed only 1 earned run on a total of just 3 hits while striking out 14 in his last two starts and those outings saw him total just under 12 innings!  The Nationals Brad Lord, on the other hand, has allowed 14 hits in about 11 innings of work over his last two starts and he just allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings versus the Mets.  The Yankees have won 8 of 12 and scored an average of 8 runs in those 8 victories.  That being said, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting another home blowout here!  We are getting some excellent value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay small juice with the Yankees here.  Lay the 1.5 runs with the Yankees Monday!

#127 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills -2 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on Buffalo last week and they were embarrassed at Chicago to the tune of 38-0.  They decided on game day they would sit all of their starters which was a surprise to us.  The Bears played their starters and buried Buffalo.  The Bills head coach McDermott was obviously not happy after the performance.  “That wasn’t up to our standard, what we expect,” McDermott said. “We have a lot of work to do. It wasn’t up to our standard, that's very clear. It doesn't matter who's out there — ones, twos, threes, fours, whoever it is — we expect them to perform and we expect our level of performance to be much better than that.”  We expect a much better performance as they look for at least 1 win in the preseason for some momentum (Buffalo is 0-2).  Tampa is on the opposite end with a 2-0 preseason record.  QB Mayfield is banged up and he will most likely sit again leaving the QB duties up to Bazelak, newly signed Bridgewater, and Trask.  Last week the Bucs topped Pittsburgh 17-14 but they were outplayed drastically in the stats.  The Steelers average 5.4 YPP to just 3.8 for TB and on the ground the disparity was even more pronounced at 5.0 YPC (for Steelers) and just 1.7 YPC for the Bucs.  We expect the Bills to play with much more urgency this week after their embarrassing effort last week while Tampa, with 2 wins already, will be looking to just get to the regular season.  Lay the small number with Buffalo.

#310 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -13 over Fresno State, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - Fresno is going through a massive change with a brand new coach staff on both sides of the ball. Their new head coach Entz was LB coach at USC last year and head coach at North Dakota State prior to that. His new offensive coordinator came from South Dakota he threw the ball only 39% of the time and played at a very slow pace. Fresno was the opposite last year throwing 56% of the time and playing much faster. It’s going to take some time to adapt. We don’t love the Bulldogs QB Warner who transferred in from Rice and simply wasn’t very good (17 TD’s and 13 interceptions) and he’s not mobile. They brought in a whopping 44 new transfers so the transition will take some time. Kansas is much more stable coming into this year with one of the better head coaches in the country in our opinion (Lance Leipold) and a stable staff. The Jayhawks went to bowl games in both of Leipold’s previous 2 seasons before falling to a 5-7 record last year. They were better than their record as they finished with a plus point differential for both the season and in conference play. They also outgained their opponents last season and finished in the top 12 nationally in YPP on offense led by QB Daniels who is back for another season. The Jayhawks were just 1-5 in one score games so if they would have had a few breaks in those losses they could have had a much better record. Their average margin of victory in their 5 wins was +20.4 points while 5 of their 7 losses came by 6 points or less. Also keep in mind they had no home field advantage last year as they played their home games at Arrowhead Stadium in KC while the renovations on their stadium were taking place. On Saturday they open that new stadium and we expect a very good atmosphere. We’ll take the more stable program at home on Saturday. Lay it.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -14 vs. Chicago Sky, 7PM ET - The Sky have Angel Reese back but that just adds to their poor shooting and turnovers so it’s not really a plus. Chicago is 3-13 SU on the road this season getting beat by an average of 10PPG. The Sky are a bottom tier team defensively, rank 11th in road team FG% at 41.1% and 9th in 3PT% away from home. They face one of the best teams in the Liberty at home, who win by an average of 10+PPG, shoot 45.7% at home (3rd) and 37.8% at home, best in the W. Oh wait, the Sky will also be facing the 2nd best FG% defense in the league at home and 1st overall 3PT% D. The last time these teams met on this floor the Liberty won by 19-points. In Chicago earlier in the season they won by 25. We like the Liberty to win again in that 19-25-point range.

#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over Seattle Mariners, Tuesday at 6:45 PM ET - The Phillies rolled to a 12-7 win yesterday and pounded out 21 hits!  When this team gets going at home like that they are tough to beat and the Phillies lineup is looking great after also getting a boost with the return of Alec Bohm.  They are loaded with plenty of deep ball threats throughout the lineup.  That is noteworthy here as the Mariners are expected to start Bryce Miller here as he returns from injury.  Though his 3 rehab starts in the minors were respectable overall, he did allow 4 homers in 9 and 1/3 innings over his last 2 rehab starts.  The Phillies were crushing the ball yesterday and love hitting here at home.  They pounded 4 homers yesterday.  Miller is 2-5 with a 5.73 ERA this season at the MLB level and this will be a tough first start in his return from injury.  The Phillies have lefty Christopher Sanchez getting the start here and he is having a fantastic season.  Sanchez has been particularly strong at home where he is 5-0 with a 2.33 ERA in his 10 starts this year!  This is no fluke either as not only is he 11-4 overall this season, Sanchez also dominated at home last season too as he went 7-3 with a 2.21 ERA in 17 starts here.  He is facing a Seattle team that has now lost 3 straight and 5 of the last 6 and each of the last 4 losses by a multi-run margin!  13 of the last 15 Phillies wins - including 5 in a row - have been by a margin of 2 or more runs.  We are getting some excellent value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a plus money return with Philadelphia here.  Lay the 1.5 runs with the Phillies Tuesday!

Spanish La Liga #201838 ASA PLAY ON Real Madrid Goal Line -1.5 Goals (-140) over Osasuna, Tuesday at 3 ET - Osasuna is a large underdog here for a reason. Real Madrid is again one of the best clubs in the league while Osasuna not only finished mid-table last season, the visitors also had some key departures in the off-season. Not only that, Osasuna is on the road here and facing a Real Madrid club whose last competitive match was a 4-0 loss to PSG in the FIFA Club World Cup. In other words, Real Madrid is sure to be focused here for their season opener and they have won the last two meetings here each by an identical score of 4-0. We look for another multi-goal victory for the home side (with a huge talent advantage) as they roll big Tuesday on their home pitch. We will lay 1.5 goals with the home team here.

#429 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills +2.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8 PM ET - The Bills are off a 34-25 loss last week vs the NY Giants but they played much better than the result. The Buffalo offense put up over 7.0 YPP and outgained the Giants by nearly 2.0 YPP in that loss. They put up those offensive numbers with QB Allen and RB Cook out of the line up but we expect both to play some this week. When Allen exits, we like Buffalo’s QB rotation with Trubisky, White, and Buechele. Trubisky & White have plenty of NFL experience combining to throw for over 14,000 yards and 83 TD’s. Head coach Sean McDermott has shown he does take the preseason seriously (15-10 ATS record) and he’s done well as an NFLX dog with a 4-2 ATS record in that spot since the start of the 2021 season. His teams are also 3-0 SU in the preseason when coming off a loss during that time frame. The Bears will play QB Caleb Williams in this one, however he’s been struggling to pick up on new head coach Ben Johnson’s offense in camp. When Williams takes a seat, the Chicago QB room will be without veteran Case Keenum who is out here with an injury after throwing for 2 TD’s in last week 24-24 tie vs Miami. These 2 teams have had combined practices this week and Chicago’s offensive line has had big time problems, especially at LT, with Buffalo’s defensive front. In that tie, the Bears offense averaged only 4.5 YPP. Buffalo is the deeper team which should give us an edge in the 2nd half. They’ve also had an extra day off, so to speak, after playing last Saturday while Chicago played on Sunday. We’ll take the better team, off a loss, getting points.

ASA WNBA play on Indiana Fever -6.5 at Connecticut Sun, 1pm ET - The Fever have lost two straight games and look to bounce back against one of the worst teams in the WNBA. Connecticut has an average loss margin of -4.2PPG on the season at home with a 5-11 SU record on their own court. The Sun have the lowest or worst Net rating in the WNBA at -14.9. Indiana has a positive Net rating of +3.7 and have a positive road record of 9-8 SU. Connecticut has the worst FG% defense in the league at 46.4% allowed and the 10th worst 3PT% D allowing 34.5%. The Fever should take advantage of that defense with their 4th best FG% rating at 45.2% and their 5th best 3PT% at 34.2%. The Sun have been double digit home dogs to New York and Seattle in recent weeks so laying -6.5-points here is not out of line. Indiana has beaten this team by 8 and 17-points this season and should get a double-digit win in this one.

ASA NFLx play on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 -125 vs Cleveland Browns, 1PM ET - The Eagles hold a decisive advantage over the Browns in one key area heading into Saturday and that’s the QB position. Cleveland’s quarterback situation is a disaster, making matters worse is rookie QB Sanders (played well last week) has an oblique injury and may not play. In fact, there is talk Tyler Huntley may play the entire game against Philly. The Eagles’ offense is in the capable hands of QB Tanner McKee. McKee was an efficient 20/25 for 252 yards, 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s last week against the Bengals. Thompson-Robinson relieved McKee and was 5/8 for 56-yards. Philadelphia’s defensive front, bolstered by rookies Carter and Smith, will likely disrupt Huntley and limit the Browns’ run-heavy approach. The Eagles averaged 6.08 yards per play last week and should have success again this week against a Browns D that allowed 5.6YPPL a year ago (23rd most). Philadelphia’s depth will come through in this one and lead the Eagles to a TD+ win.

ASAwins WNBA play on Golden State Valkyries -6.5 at Chicago Sky, 7:30pm ET - The Sky have dropped 11 of their last twelve games and are in a free fall late in the season. Golden State has been one of the biggest surprises this season and currently sit 17-15 on the year. Chicago is without Angel Reese and her 30% shooting from 5-feet and in this season which is maybe a plus. The Valkyries have won 3 straight games and 6 of their last eight games overall. They are 4-1 SU in their last five road games so playing away from home hasn’t been an issue. In their most recent win over the Mystics they were up 25-points before coasting to a 88-83 win in Washington. In each team's last eight games the Valks have a positive Net rating of +3.3 while the Sky are a negative -14.7. The Chicago offense is going to have a hard time scoring against this GST defense that is 1st in FG% defense and 5th in 3PT% D. The Sky typically enjoy a rebounding advantage over most teams but won’t have that edge in this one. Lay the points with Golden State.

ASAwins NFLx play on Atlanta Falcons +4.5 vs. Tennessee Titans, Friday 7PM ET - We like the Falcons to cover the +5.5 spread against the Tennessee Titans in their preseason Week 2 matchup, for a few key reasons. The Falcons’ defense looked good in their opener against the Lions, with rookie edge James Pearce Jr. and veteran Arnold Ebiketie generating pressure on Detroit’s QB’s, which was sorely lacking a year ago. This pass rush could exploit the Titans’ offensive line, and a rookie QB, which struggled in their Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers. Tennessee managed just 201 total yards of offense against the Bucs and currently have depth concerns at running back so expect a heavy dose of rookies (Mullings and Chestnut) in the backfield. Atlanta’s third-string QB Easton Stick outshined Tennessee’s Cam Ward in their respective debuts, completing 15 of 18 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. Stick’s efficiency, and the ability of the Falcons to convert 3rd downs 4/11, should help sustain drives against a Titans secondary that was exposed in joint practices this week and their first game. Atlanta has some injury concerns and has hinted they may play QB Cousins for a series or two before Stick takes over for the rest of the game. Either way, this number is too high according to our metrics and anything over a field goal is a buy.

#952 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +110 over Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - Brewers roll continues as they crushed Pittsburgh 14-0 yesterday following Monday's 7-1 win as well! The Brewers have won 11 straight games and they are 41-20 at home this season!  Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has lost 4 straight games and also has lost 20 of the last 33 games.  On the road this season the Pirates are 17-41.  Mitch Keller starts for Pittsburgh here and, despite a 5-10 record, has some good long-term numbers.  However, he looks to be fading here late in the season.  Keller's last 3 starts have seen him allow nearly 2 baserunners per inning!  He has walked 7 and given up 18 hits for 25 baserunners in 12 and 2/3 innings!  Another early exit could loom for him here and that means the Pirates bullpen - charged with 18 earned runs in the last 3 games - could again be an issue here.  Even if Keller has a good start here, the Brewers Brandon Woodruff has a good shot at out-pitching him by a solid margin!  Woodruff is a fantastic 22-5 the last 3 seasons combined including 4-0 this season with a 2.29 ERA!  The Brewers have also been the much better hitting team this season plus are #1 in the NL for boh batting average (.300) and slugging percentage (.493) the last 30 days!  The Pirates are the lowest scoring team in MLB and also have a paltry .324 slugging percentage in road games this season which is dead last in the majors!  Milwaukee has just 4 losses since early July as they are on a 26-4 run!  Conversely, the Pirates have 4 losses within just the past 4 days as they have lost 4 straight games and are on a  4-8 run!  6 of the last 7 Pittsburgh losses by a multi-run margin!  12 of the last 16 Brewers wins by 2+ runs!  We are utilizing the run line on the home favorite in this one for a strong play and we expect the Brewers to extend their current win streak to 12 IN A ROW with a home win by a multi-run margin again Wednesday! 

ASA WBA play on Indiana Fever -7 vs. Dallas Wings, 7:30pm ET - These teams recently met in Dallas (Aug 1st) which resulted in the Fever winning by 10-points as a -3.5-point favorite. Now Indiana is laying just a few more points at home where they 10-6 SU on the season with an average +/- of +8.8PPG. Dallas has really struggled on the road this season with a 3-12 SU record and a negative or minus -4.6PPG differential. The Wings are one of the worst offensive and defensive Net rating teams in the league ranking 9th offensively and 10th defensively. Indiana is better in both categories ranking 5th in ONR and 8th in DNR. Indiana has won 6 of eight games and are at home with 1 extra day of rest going into this game. Dallas has lost 5 in a row and 7 of their last eight games and this will be their 3rd game in five days. The Wings have lost 5 of their last six road games with all five of those losses coming by 7 or more points. The Fever have beaten this Wings team three times this season and clearly have a match up advantage. Lay it with Indiana.

ASAwins WNBA play on Atlanta Dream +4.5 at Phoenix Mercury, 7pm ET - We were on the wrong side of this matchup in the last meeting when Atlanta drubbed the Mercury by 23-points. Atlanta is 2-0 against Phoenix this season with both wins coming by double digits. Atlanta clearly has a matchup advantage that Phoenix struggles with. The Dream have won 4 straight games and 6 of their last seven. In that stretch of games they have two wins over this Phoenix team and an impressive road win in Minnesota. Phoenix has won 3 straight but we’re not as impressed with their streak as two of the wins came against Chicago and Connecticut, two of the worst teams in the W. The other win came against Indiana, but he Fever were in a tough scheduling situation playing their 4th straight road game. The big advantage the Dream have is their rebounding edge and 2nd chance opportunities. Grab the points with the Dream.

ASAwins WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces Pick'em vs. Seattle Storm, 10pm ET - We have two teams currently heading in opposite directions with the Storm on a 3-game losing streak while the Aces have won 2 straight and 4 of their last five. In fact, Seattle made a big trade for Brittney Sykes in an effort to resurrect the season. Granted Sykes is an All-Star player and very good, but it will take time for her and her teammates to acclimate themselves to each other’s style of play. Las Vegas has had their ups-and-downs this season but they seem to have things figured out with a 7-3 streak in their last ten games. This game has big playoff implications as both teams sit 16-14 overall and tied for 3rd in the Western Conference. Seattle has a 2-1 series advantage which makes this game critical for the Aces. Las Vegas has won 7 of the last ten meetings with the Storm and we like them to get #8 tonight. 

ASAwins CFL Edmonton Elks +2 vs. Montreal Alouettes (August 8, 2025) 7:30pm ET - Despite their 1-6 record, the Elks are getting less than a field goal on the road in Montreal? That doesn’t add up. Edmonton is coming off a near upset of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats last week in a close 28-24 loss. With Cody Fajardo at quarterback, Edmonton’s offense has been revitalized, as he completed 79.3% of his passes for 603 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception over his last two starts. This is particularly relevant as Fajardo faces his former team, Montreal, in a revenge game, adding extra motivation. Edmonton has covered the spread in two straight visits to Montreal and has a money-making 8-4 ATS record in their last 12 road games. QB Fajardo’s 79.3% completion rate and 8.6 yards per attempt in recent games should exploit Montreal’s secondary, which ranks third in passing yards allowed (251.2 per game) but is depleted by injuries. The Alouettes are missing key players, including starting QB Davis Alexander and top receivers Austin Mack and Tyson Philpot, weakening their offense. Backup QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson struggled last week, managing only 126 passing yards with an interception in a 34-6 loss to Saskatchewan. Montreal is 2-2 SU at home this season but one of those wins was by just 1-point. Edmonton’s last three losses have been by a combined 11 points and is an indicator this team is better than their 1-6 SU record this season. The Elks should keep this game within a field goal, if not pull off the upset.

ASAwins WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -4 vs. Indiana Fever, 10pm ET - These same two teams recently met in Indiana with the Fever 107-101 as a 3-point dog. Phoenix is now at home, playing with immediate revenge from that loss, and laying just 1 more point. Sounds like a great opportunity to buy low on the Mercury. Both teams have played a tough stretch and each will be playing their 5th game in just 9 days. The advantage the Mercury has is that they were at home in their most recent game a win over Connecticut. The Fever are playing their 3rd consecutive road game and off a loss in Los Angeles. Phoenix is 10-4 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +7.0ppg, one of the better +/- in the WNBA. Both have similar offensive ratings and statistics, but the Mercury has a large edge defensively. We like Phoenix to get payback in this one.

ASA NFLx play on Philadelphia Eagles +6.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday 7:30pm ET *Bonus bet: Bengals 1st Quarter -1.5 - We can’t ignore Bengals head coach Zac Taylor’s record in the preseason of 3-12 SU, 0-5 SU the last two seasons, and will have to grab the points with Philly. Of course, that’s not the only reason, but it’s a good starting point. Taylor has publicly said he plans to play QB Burrow and other starters for the first quarter on Thursday night (we like the Bengals -1.5 1st Q), but once those players go out, the Eagles have much better depth. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is 3-7 SU in the preseason, but did win 2 of three a season ago. The QB rotation is a critical aspect of this game, and we like the Eagles backups more than the Bengals. Plus, said backup QB’s will be facing different levels of defense and Philadelphia was significantly better than the Bengals a year ago on that side of the football. Philly is expected to play Tanner McKee and Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the majority of the game with rookie Kyle McCord seeing limited snaps late in the game. The Bengals will give Burrow and starters the first quarter but it’s highly unlikely they will jeopardize their skill players health with a ton of passing attempts. After Burrow comes Jake Browning and Desmond Ridder with Payton Thorne getting mop-up duty. Philadelphia was a top-10 defense a year ago in many key categories including: yards per point allowed, points per game allowed, yards per play allowed, total yards per game allowed. Cincinnati on the other hand was in the bottom half of the league in most key defensive categories. Late in the game when the backups are in, we like the Eagles to have more success offensively and keep this game close in the second half.

#910 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over St Louis Cardinals, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - We approached this with some caution since the Dodgers were back east wrapping up a road trip at Tampa Bay yesterday afternoon.  However, we just do not see any way possible that the Dodgers will not pound Sonny Gray tonight.  The Cardinals right-hander has been consistently off start after start and this LA team is also much more confident (and therefore dangerous) when they are at home.  We look for the Los Angeles lineup to absolutely wallop Gray in this one as he has allowed 19 runs (17 earned) on 30 hits (including 5 homers!) in just 13 and 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts.  He was consistently rocked in each start.  The Dodgers Tyler Glasnow is off of a tougher road start but you can consider this more of a "one off" for him as he had been strong heading into that one and is also happy to be back home.  Prior to the tough road outing, Glasnow allowed only 3 runs (2 earned) on just 9 hits in 18 innings while striking out 23 in those 3 starts in July.  Yes, he dominated and two of those starts were at home and we expect he will again be fantastic here at home.  Overall, the Dodgers are 35-21 at home this season and 30-16 against teams that currently have a losing record on the season.  The Cardinals are 24-33 on the road this season and on an overall 9-19 slide in which they had 12 road losses.  In those dozen defeats away from home, St Louis scored an average of only 1.5 runs per loss!  Now they will try to keep up with a Dodgers team that is the top slugging home team in the majors and averages scoring 5.8 runs per game at Dodger Stadium!  A blowout is a high probability here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one! 

ASAwins CFL play on Saskatchewan Roughriders -2.5 @ Montreal Alouettes - Saturday, August 2, 7:00 p.m. ET - Saskatchewan sits atop the CFL with a 6-1 record and have proven to be one of the best teams in the league. The Roughriders’ elite defense and efficient offense, led by quarterback Trevor Harris, are playing at a very high level. Montreal’s injury concerns at key offensive positions will be tough to overcome, even with this being a home game for the Als. Saskatchewan leads the CFL with 20 sacks, including eight in their Week 8 win over Edmonton. Their run defense is the league’s best, allowing just 66.9 rushing yards per game at 4.6 yards per attempt. Trevor Harris ranks fifth in passing yards with 11 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Saskatchewan averages 395.9 total yards per game (2nd in CFL) and 106.7 rushing yards per game. Montreal is without starting quarterback Davis Alexander (hamstring) and top receivers Tyson Philpot and Austin Mack, both questionable after missing practice. Saskatchewan’s defensive pressure could force errors from backup QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson as Montreal lacks a reliable rushing attack to take the pressure off him. The Alouettes rank 6th in total rushing yards per game, 7th in yards per rush at 4.9. We like the Rough Riders to keep their perfect road record intact with a 7-point win in Montreal.

NOTE: 1st Half Line is our PREFERRED way to bet this one! ASA NFL play on LA Chargers +1.5 vs. Detroit Lions, 8pm ET - The NFL season is officially here with the Hall of Fame game tonight between the Chargers and Lions. We are going to side with the Chargers in this game with our strongest bet on the 1st half with Los Angeles. The Chargers gave up 5.4 Yards Per Play defensively a year ago and 18.5PPG which was the 2nd lowest number in the NFL. In comparison the Lions allowed 21.5PPG and 5.8YPPL (29th). Detroit lost their Offensive and Defensive coordinators so expect a very vanilla gameplan tonight as new systems are being put in place. Neither team will play many starters at all including their franchise QB’s in Herbert and Goff. We like the Chargers backup QB better with Trey Lance who is schedule to play the first half of this game. Lance provides mobility which will lead to several big plays with his feet rather than his arm. The Lions are going to give Hendon Hooker a long look at QB to see if he can be Goff’s primary  backup. We like Lance with more NFL experience to outshine Hooker and the Lions in this one.