ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -2.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30pm ET - The Thunder are 16-2 SU off a loss this season with an average plus/minus of +14.6ppg. After the humbling Game 3 loss by 42-points you can bet the Thunder will be focused and extra motivated for this one. Minnesota didn’t shoot well in the first two games, then shot WELL above expectations at 57% overall and 50% from Deep in Game 3. They also committed just 10 turnovers in G3 after turning it over 17 and 14 times in the first two games. OKC shot just 41% in G3, well below their average of 47.7% which is the 7th highest number in the NBA this season. The Thunder have lost back-to-back games just two times this entire season and we don’t see it happening for a third time tonight.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -2 vs. NY Knicks, 8pm ET - The Knicks aren’t bouncing back here down 0-2. Indiana is the younger, healthier, better overall team than New York right now. The Pacers are the best team in the NBA statistically since January. It’s no fluke they are in this position and on the verge of representing the Eastern Conference in the Finals. They eliminated a solid Bucks team in 5 games, then beat the best team in the East at the time, the Cavs in 5 games and are now up 2-0 versus the Knicks. The Pacers are 4-1 SU at home in the post season and on a current 16-3 SU streak on their home court. In the last two months of the regular season the Pacers had an average +/- of +7.0ppg at home. The line on this game is far too low considering the Pacers were -4.5 to -6-points at home against Milwaukee and the Knicks were +1.5 and +2.5 in two road games in the first round against Detroit. In fact, this line suggests that New York would be favored on a neutral court and that’s simply not the case. Indiana has figured out a way to slow down Brunson and the other Knicks haven’t picked up the slack. The Pacers take a commanding 3-0 lead in this series and may even sweep this NY team.

ASA play on Las Vegas Aces -3.5 at Seattle Storm, 6 pm ET - Las Vegas is again one of the favorites to win the Title this season and led by league MVP A’Ja Wilson. They are coming off a poor showing at home on Friday when they beat the Mystics by just 3-points 75-72 as a -15-point chalk. We like them to rebound with a much better effort here. Las Vegas traded for former Storm star Jewell Llyod in the offseason who should relish this opportunity to go up against her former teammates. The Aces are 20-10 SU their last 30 road games and have won 9 of the last ten meetings with the Storm including 2-0 last year on this court. LV has beaten the Storm 7 of the last nine games in Seattle. The Storm are 2-1 on the season but the two wins came against Dallas and Phoenix who are both below average in our overall league ratings. The Storm are 1-9 SU their last 10 games as a home Dog, 2-7-1 ATS. The Aces will ‘flex’ in this one and win by 6+ points.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +3 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30pm ET - If the Wolves are going to win a game it's this one. The Wolves are down 0-2 in this series largely due to a couple key aspects, poor shooting and turnovers. Minnesota has an EFG% of 45.9% in this series, well below their season average of 55.4%. Back at home we can expect them to shoot better collectively than the 41% (Game 2) and 35% (Game 1) the previous two road games. The Wolves did cut down on turnovers from G1 to G2 (17 to 14) and should be even better taking care of the basketball now that they aren’t in OKC’s building. We are also betting the Thunder cannot maintain an Offensive Net Rating of 120.2 which they had in the first two games of this series. Minnesota has the 3rd best Defensive Net Rating in the postseason at 109 and were 6th in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season. These two teams split in the regular season so we know the Wolves can beat this team. Minnesota has been a home dog just 5 times this season and are 2-3 SU, but they have an average plus/minus in those games of +5.4ppg. We like the Wolves plus the points and would sprinkle in a smaller wager on them on the moneyline as well.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -4.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 1pm ET - This is eerily similar to one of our first WNBA bets last season on the Liberty over the Fever, which hit 102-66. This time around the score won’t be that bad, but the Liberty will play at a much higher level today n a marquee matchup against the Caitlyn Clark Fever. The last time these teams met on this court was late last season with the Liberty a -10.5 point chalk. The number is much shorter this time around and the Liberty return the core of their Championship roster. Granted, the Fever have some additions and are better this season but not +6-points better in this matchup. Last season the Liberty were the #1 rated Offensive Net Rating team in the league and 3rd in Defensive Net Rating. In comparison, the Fever were 11th (out of 12) Defensively, 3rd in ONR. These teams are only a couple of games into this season but the Liberty are going to be very similar in both key stat categories again, the Fever will be good again offensively but we aren’t sold quite yet on their defense. New York is 9-1 SU and ATS their last ten games as a road favorite. New York also boasts a 19-1 SU road record their last 20 road games against an Eastern Conference opponent. The Fever’s day will come in the near future, but today the Champs come away with a double-digit win in Indiana. 

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 at OKC Thunder, 8:30pm ET - We are betting contrarian in Game 2 of this series and like the Wolves to play much better tonight in Oklahoma City. Minnesota shot well below season standards at 35% overall (46.7% reg ssn) and 29% (37.3%) from the 3-point line than their regular-season statistics and turned the ball over 17 times. OKC had a great shooting night which will be tough to repeat as they hit 50% overall and 52% from Deep. The Wolves lost their season opener to the Warriors then bounced back with 4 straight wins and are more than capable of winning this game outright. These teams split the 4 regular season meetings and the two OKC wins came by 8-points each. The T’Wolves were solid off a loss this season with a 20-15 SU record and an average +/- in those games of plus 4.1ppg. We expect the officiating to even out more in this game after the Thunder received favorable calls in G1. Anthony Edwards took just 13 FGA’s and will be more aggressive in Game 2. Minnesota also got 20-points from Julius Randle in the first half of G1 then scored just 8-points in the second half. We expect a positive response from the Wolves.

ASA WNBA play on Indiana Fever -4.5 at Atlanta Dream, 7:30pm ET - This is a quick rematch from two days ago in Indiana which resulted in a 91-90 Dream upset win as a +7-point underdog. At first glance you would argue this is a bad line with the Fever favored by -4.5-points on the road. But the fact that it’s Caitlyn Clark coming to town nullifies any home court advantage the Dream may have as there will be more Fever fans than Atlanta’s. Indiana is going to be a contender this season and better than we originally thought with their new coach and additions. Atlanta was +9 in FT makes and +6 in attempts in the meeting the other night and had 3 less turnovers. This Dream team is improved this season but let’s not forget that were last in the league in Offensive Net Rating a year ago and will have tough times scoring in games. That is never the case for the Fever who were 3rd in ONR last season and will be better this season. The Fever have won 5 of the last six meetings and will get immediate revenge in this one.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. NY Knicks - Game 1, Wednesday 8pm ET - The Indiana Pacers have been one of the best teams in the NBA since the start of the new year, with a 42-16 record since Jan. 1, 2025. This is not a fluke the Pacers are in the EC Finals after beating the Bucks and Cavaliers. Indiana is 8-2 SU in the playoffs, covering 4 of five road games, and leads the postseason with a 58.3% eFG% and 2nd-best offensive net rating (117.3). The Knicks, fresh off a grueling six-game series vs. Boston, rank 14th in eFG% and 9th in offensive net rating (110.7). New York is not the dominant defense that Thibideau coached teams have been in the past, ranking 13th in Defensive Net Rating during the regular season and 5th in DNR in the postseason. The teams have split their last 10 meetings, but New York’s fatigue and Indiana’s rest advantage (last game May 13) give the Pacers an edge in Game 1. Indiana’s fast pace and depth could exploit New York’s heavy minutes, with Tyrese Haliburton (29.7 PPG vs. Knicks) key to their attack.

#200160 ASA PLAY ON Brighton & Hove Goal Line Pick'em (-100) over Liverpool, Monday at 3 ET - With Brentford losing yesterday, Brighton & Hove can make their move up the standings to the 8th spot which is important in terms of having a chance at European football next campaign. We expect the Albion to come up big here at home and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would be a push since the goal line is at a pick'em. We do expect the outright win however as Brighton gets revenge for having lost each of the last 3 meetings with the Reds - all by a 1-goal margin. With Liverpool already having won the league title for this season, the visitors simply do not have the same motivation level that Brighton has here. Liverpool, as one would expect after clinching the league title, is fading some here late in the season and is winless in their last 2 matches. The odds favor the hosts earning at least a draw in this one and we expect even more with the win and a cashed ticket for us here. We will take Brighton & Hove on the goal line in this one.  

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - We are on the Thunder to win this Game 7 and advance to meet Minnesota in the next round. We have said all along we like OKC to win it all this season and there is no reason not to back them here at home where they are 39-7 SU/30-14-2 ATS with an average MOV of +16.1ppg. When coming off a loss this season the Thunder have an average point differential of +13.6ppg and a 15-2 SU record. The Nuggets are lacking depth and have relied heavily on their starting rotation plus Russell Westbrook. Today that could be a major factor with Aaron Gordon having a slight hamstring pull late in Game 6. He was at shootaround Saturday morning and is listed as questionable today. OKC was double-digit favorites in three home games of this series and now laying a shorter number with the season on the line. We like SGA and company to bounce back after a tough loss in Denver and win by 10+ here.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -6.5 Points at Washington Mystics: Friday, 7:30 pm ET - Despite similar 2024 net ratings (Dream -3.6, Mystics -3.8), Atlanta’s offseason additions of Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones—both top-five in WNBA field goal percentage (57.2% and 55.9% over four years)—boost their offense, which struggled at 40.8% shooting last season. Jordin Canada returns healthy, adding playmaking (5.2 APG in 2024), while Rhyne Howard (17.3 PPG) and Allisha Gray (15.6 PPG) provide scoring punch. The Dream dominated the Mystics in a preseason game recently, leading 30-10 after the first quarter. Washington, missing key players like Aaliyah Edwards, Georgia Amoore and Shakira Austin due to injuries, will struggle to keep up with a very young roster. Prediction: Atlanta’s revamped roster and Washington’s injuries make the Dream a play to cover -6.5.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7PM ET - No Tatum – No problem. The Celtics are 8-2 SU this season when Tatum hasn’t played and this teams greatest strength is their depth. The loss of Tatum is going to have a massive impact on this Celtics team moving forward, but in the short term we expect the other SuperStars on this team to step up in his absence. Jaylen Brown, Porzingis, White and Holiday can all carry their team for stretches and to be honest, the C’s late game offense has not been good with the ball ‘stopping’ in Tatum’s hands. Boston had led by 14, 31, 20 and 20-points at one time in each of the four games of this series. Boston off a SU loss this season is 21-3 SU / 19-5 ATS with an average MOV of +18.4ppg. The Celtics had the 4th best average home differential in the NBA this season at +9.0ppg and are 77-21 SU at home the past two full seasons, +11.9ppg average. Boston had the 5th best EFG% in the NBA this regular season at 56.1% and the Knicks D was slightly above average in Net Rating at 113.3. The Celtics EFG% has dipped in the playoffs but we certainly expect a better shooting night here and trust them more to shoot well versus a Knicks defense that was average this season.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - Minnesota didn’t play ‘great’ in Game 3 and still won by 5-points. Would we be shocked if Anthony Edwards had another huge game with 36-point – no! Can Julius Randall have another triple-double as he did in Game 3 – yes! What we don’t see happening is Jimmy Butler going off for 33-points or Jonathan Kuminga scoring 30. In fact, Kuminga has been buried on Steve Kerr’s bench with four DNP’s against Houston, and now he’s expected to pick up the Steph Curry scoring slack two games in a row. Not likely. The Warriors offensive Net Rating in this series is 101.4, one of the worst numbers of all the playoff teams and significantly lower than their season average of 114.2. Minnesota is 6th in Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 113.7 ONR and 3rd defensively at 106.2. The Warriors defense hasn’t been as good in the playoffs either with a DNR of 110.7. The Warriors will miss Curry again tonight and the Wolves are very capable of winning this road game by margin. Minnesota’s season road record of 27-18 SU is slightly better than GST’s 27-19 SU home record. The T’Wolves have the deeper, more talented roster and we expect a convincing road win here.

#920 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - The Rockies are off a rare win but fired their manager after all the losing had finally taken its toll when the losing streak was culminated with a 21-0 loss.  Even though the Rockies finally got back into the win column Sunday, this team is still a mess!  Changing the manager does not exactly revamp the roster and therein lies the problem with Colorado.  The Rockies, dating back to last season, are 1-8 the last 9 times when off a loss.  B2B wins have indeed been rare for the Rockies and that has, in fact, happened only once this season.  In other words, the odds certainly favor that Colorado's losing ways quickly resume here.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and yesterday's win was at home.  Now the Rockies are back on the road where they have lost 16 of 17 games!  The Rangers have certainly been struggling some too but now they enter this game off B2B road wins at Detroit and they are now happy to be back home where they have won 12 of 19 games since losing their home opener.  Texas also has the bullpen edge here.  As for the starting pitching, this is a big edge here for Texas!  The Rangers Tyler Mahle is off to a phenomenal start this season and has been incredibly dominant at home.  In his home outings, Mahle is 2-1 with an 0.70 ERA in his 5 starts!  He has been lights out at home this season!  The Rockies Chase Dollander is a rookie and he is struggling both home and away.  He is 0-2 with a 6.10 ERA in his road starts this season.  82% of Rockies losses this season by 2 or more runs.  70% of Rangers wins this season by 2 or more runs. Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 3:30pm ET - I know this sounds like a broken record but OKC is the best team in the NBA who have had two poor shooting games in this series and now trail 1-2 to Denver. The Thunder have a penchant for blowout wins with 54 regular season wins coming by double-digits which makes covering this margin acceptable. Oklahoma City has lost twice in a row just 3 times all season long and we don’t expect them to hit just 26% from beyond the arc in Game 4 as they did in Game 3. The Thunder with he 7th best shooting team in the NBA is season and 6th in 3PT% at 36.9%. We are also expecting a big bounce back game by Shai Gilgeous Alexander who scored just 18-points in the last game on 7 of 22 shooting. SGA is likely the MVP (should be Jokic but voter fatigue will get SGA the award) averaging over 32ppg on the season. Denver was 22nd in Defensive Efficiency during the regular season and has the 6th worst number in that stat category during the entire playoffs. We like OKC big today.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -5.5 vs NY Knicks, 3:30pm ET - It’s only natural that the Knicks relax a little bit in this game with a shocking 2-0 lead in this series after two upset wins in Boston. Let’s not forget, the Knicks also played an physical 6-game series in the first round with Detroit and 5 of their last six games have been on the road. It’s no secret why Boston lost both games of this series with terrible shooting being the culprit. The Celts shot under 36% overall in both and just 25% in both games from deep, missing 75 total 3-pointers. Those numbers are not indicative of this Boston team as they shot 46% overall on the season and 36.6% from the 3PT line, 10th best in the NBA. New York has the 26th worst 3PT% defense in the NBA this season allowing 36.1% and the 25th worst overall FG% D at 47%. In other words, this recent poor shooting trend is not the norm so we are betting in a return to what we’ve seen all season long from the C’s. Prior to the two losses to start this series the Celtics had won 7 of the last eight meetings with NY, covering 6 of those. Thibs and the Knicks are 1-3 ATS as a home dog this season while Boston is on a 14-4 ATS run when coming off two consecutive losses. The number is inflated for a reason. We trust the team that has been one of the very best in the league the past two seasons to come out on top in this one.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm ET - The one team in the NBA this season that was equally as strong on the road as they were at home is the OKC Thunder. Oklahoma City was 38-8 SU on the road this season (25-15-1 ATS) with an average plus/minus of +10.1ppg, best in the league. OKC boasts a 73-16 straight-up (SU) record and a 56-29-4 against-the-spread (ATS) mark this season, including covering the spread by an average of 9.2 points per game in their last five road games against Denver. The Thunder’s elite defense is the separator between these two teams. OKC leads the NBA with 11.11 steals per game and a 1.075 defensive efficiency rating, should exploit Denver’s 12.04 turnovers per game (25th in the league). In comparison, the Nuggets DEFF during the regular season was 22nd in the league allowing 1.161PPP. OKC was clearly rusty in G1 of this series after a long layoff leading up to that game. They then bounced back with a 43-point win in G2 which is a better indicator of what this team is really capable of. This line isn’t exactly what it should be but it’s also not inflated more than we are comfortable with. The Clippers were favored by 2-points on this court in the previous series with Denver. We like the visitor to get a big road win here.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -10.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30pm ET - We were on the wrong side in Game 1 of this series as the Wolves (Anthony Edwards) didn’t show up and lost home court advantage. It was a solid situation as the Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest giving them a significant scheduling edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets.  As we mentioned in yesterday’s winner on OKC, the days off for these teams has been a negative thus far in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Much like the Thunder last night, we expect Minnesota to bounce back tonight with a big home win. The Wolves have been a strong bet at home, going 11-3 straight-up (SU) in their last 14 home games. Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the 6th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.115-points per possession. They also allow the 4th fewest made 3-pointers per game and hold opponents to 45.8% shooting, 7th lowest number in the league. The Warriors lost Steph Curry midway through the last game, and he won’t be in uniform tonight for Game 2. This Golden State team lacks depth and losing his 22.6ppg and floor spacing he provides is going to be too much for the Warriors to overcome. Wolves All-Star guard Anthony Edwards had a horrible Game 1 and was called out by his coach. I expect him to rebound with a big night in Game 2. We’ve seen Kerr sit his starters early in games when his team is down big and if the Wolves can build a big lead he’ll rest his main guys and be happy with a 1-1 split on the road.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -10 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET - May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and a current ATS (against the spread) record of 55-26-4 (67%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-8 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +15.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP.  Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC in Game 1 of this series. The Nuggets shocked the NBA world with a Game 1 upset despite trailing in the game for roughly 80% of the minutes. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. The rest advantage clearly wasn’t a positive for any of the favorites thus far in the playoffs with the chalks going 0-5 SU/ATS in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Now that the Thunder have a game under their belt we expect them to be sharper in this one. OKC shot just 42% in G1, well below their season average of 47.8% which was 7th best in the NBA this season. OKC is 13-2 SU/ 8-6-1 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- in those games of +12.2ppg.

Champions League #224213 ASA PLAY ON Arsenal +0.5 (-130) over Paris Saint-Germain, Wednesday at 3 ET - We expect Arsenal to come up big here on the road and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would also be a win since the goal line is at +0.5 goals for Arsenal. We do expect the outright win as Arsenal is down 1-0 after the 1st Leg but they know they need to unleash a more aggressive attack here and, when they do, this is when this club is at its most dangerous! The first leg was a surprising 1-0 road win for Paris Saint-Germain as Arsenal struggled. Now they respond on the road and, keep in mind, PSG is okay with a draw here since they have the 1-0 edge already based on the first leg result. That means if this match is tied up at 1-1 or 2-2 there will be no extra emphasis on attacking for PSG. They will be content with a draw knowing that is all they need to advance. Give credit to PSG for surprisingly shutting down Arsenal in London but now you will see the true version of the Gunners coming out and firing away in this one! Arsenal has an unbeaten run - win or draw - going strong on the road with 7 straight away matches earning at least a draw! The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw again in this one! We will take Arsenal on the goal line (+0.5) in this one.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - The Timberwolves have had four extra days of rest since their series ended on April 30, giving them a significant edge over Golden State, who played a grueling seven-game series against the Houston Rockets, concluding with a Game 7 win on Sunday. Winners of a Game 7 historically win Game 1 of the next series only 31% of the time, and the Warriors, an older team, must now travel to Minneapolis on short rest. Minnesota has been a strong bet at home, going 11-2 straight-up (SU) in their last thirteen home game. They’re also 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against Pacific Division teams like the Warriors. While Golden State won three of four regular-season meetings, the games were close, with two of the four decided by fewer than six points. The Timberwolves’ lone win on December 6, 2024 (107-90), saw them cover a similar spread, and they’ve since improved, particularly with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo finding their rhythm post-All-Star break (Randle: 18.5 PPG, 38% 3PT; DiVincenzo: 45% 3PT). Minnesota’s defensive strengths play directly into Golden State’s weaknesses. The Timberwolves boast the NBA’s No. 8 scoring defense (108.8 PPG allowed) and 6th rated 3-point defense (35.3% opponent 3PT%), which is critical against a Warriors team reliant on Stephen Curry’s outside shooting. Minnesota’s size advantage is a major factor. The Warriors struggled against Houston’s two-big lineups (Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams), being out-rebounded even in their Game 7 win. With Gobert, Randle, and Reid, the Timberwolves can dominate the glass and limit Golden State’s spacing, especially if Steve Kerr avoids playing Kevon Looney to preserve offensive flow. Minnesota ranked 15th in rebounds per game (44.3) this season, compared to the Lakers’ 26th (42.4), whom they outrebounded consistently in Round 1. This physical edge supports a double-digit win by the home team.

#901 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-165) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET -  We are going with the Dodgers again today on Tuesday after they won 7 to 4 yesterday for us here in this spot.  As we mentioned here yesterday, the Dodgers entered this series off a loss but this was on the heels of a 7-game winning streak in which LA averaged scoring 9 runs per game!  This team has such a potent lineup.  Miami, on the other hand, has now lost 8 of 9 games and scored an average of 3.5 runs per game in those 8 losses.  The Dodgers Tony Gonsolin just faced the Marlins and it was his first start of this season and he struck out 9 in 6 innings in a very solid 6-inning effort.  We expect another one today while Miami counters with the struggling Cal Quantrill as he has been charged with 18 earned runs on 26 hits over 17 and 2/3 innings in his last 4 starts. The way this LA lineup is going - including pounding Quantrill when these teams matched up last week - this one has the makings of a road rout!  Lay the run line in this one!

Champions League #224209 ASA PLAY ON Barcelona Pick'em (-110) over Inter Milan, Tuesday at 3 ET - We expect Barcelona to come up big here on the road and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would be a push since the goal line is at a pick'em. We do expect the outright win however as Barcelona just has too much firepower for Inter Milan.  The first leg was a surprising 3-3 draw as Inter Milan had not been scoring so well so to see them get 3 on the road was a surprise.  There is a reason that Barcelona is favored here even though they are on the road.  Their attacking firepower is the key.  Give credit to Inter Milan for surprising goal-scoring success at Barcelona but also note that, prior to that one, Barcelona was allowing an average of only 1 goal last 10 games.  Inter Milan, other than the 3-3 draw versus Barcelona, has scored a total of only 1 goal in their other 4 recent matches since mid-April!  The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one and we expect the win and a cashed ticket for us here. We will take Barcelona on the goal line in this one.

ASA NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -9 vs. Denver Nuggets, Monday, 9:30pm ET May 5, 2025 - The Thunder finished the 2024-25 regular season with a remarkable 68-14 record, the best in the NBA, and an ATS (against the spread) record of 55-25-4 (68%), the best in 35 years. The Thunder clearly have the ability to blow out opponents with 54 of their regular season wins coming by double-digits. In the first round they crushed the Grizzlies in their two home games by 51 and 19-points. Oklahoma City is nearly unbeatable at home, with a 36-7 SU record at Paycom Center with an average point differential of +16.1 points per game. The Thunder are elite defensively allowing 1.075-points per possession in the regular season, best in the NBA. Offensively the Thunder were 3rd in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.204PPP. Denver’s depth is a significant concern entering this series. The Nuggets survived a seven-game first-round series against the Clippers, with a Game 7 win on Saturday, leaving them with just one day of rest before facing OKC. Denver’s bench averaged just 20.6 points per game in the Clippers series, and was one of the lowest scoring benches in the regular season. Denver’s starters logged heavy minutes (Jokic 41.2 MPG, Murray 41.8 MPG). Facing a rested Thunder team that swept Memphis and hasn’t played since April 26, 2025, Denver’s fatigue could be a factor, particularly in Game 1. OKC’s relentless pace and defensive intensity are likely to exploit Denver’s tired legs and lack of depth, and lead to a blowout. The Thunder’s ability to force turnovers (league-leading 6.6 per game) and capitalize on fast-break points (19.1 per game in playoffs – Nuggets allow 13th most FBPT in playoffs) should overwhelm a Nuggets team that has also struggled with Turnovers. Denver’s defense has been a concern all season long ranking 22nd in DEFF in the regular season allowing 1.161PPP and they haven’t been much better in the PO’s allowing 1.156PPP. Bet this one before the line goes up.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 vs. Indiana Pacers (Sunday, May 4, 2025) - The Cavs have been dominant at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season, boasting a 23-19-1 ATS record with an impressive average point differential of +11.7 PPG, the second-highest margin of victory in the NBA. In contrast, the Pacers have struggled on the road, posting a 20-24 ATS record away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Recent head-to-head meetings are less indicative of this matchup’s outcome, as the Cavaliers rested key starters in their last two games against Indiana, having already secured the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the Pacers sit at 9th. Defensively, Cleveland is 9th, outperforming Indiana’s 13th-ranked defensive efficiency. Cleveland’s ability to dominate at home, combined with their statistical advantages and the Pacers’ road struggles, supports a confident prediction that the Cavaliers will cover the -7.5 spread in a comfortable victory.

#910 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-156) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - As we mentioned in our write-up on San Francisco on Friday, the Rockies (stop the presses!) were off B2B wins and it was the first time Colorado had won B2B games since mid-September.  In fact, since then the Rockies were on a 7-33 run prior to these B2B victories.  As we stated Friday (winner on SF), the odds certainly favored that Colorado's losing ways would quickly resume.  Sure enough, San Francisco beat them 4-0 Friday and 6-3 Saturday.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and, prior to Thursday's win, the Rockies had lost 13 straight road games!  The Giants entered Friday's game on a 3-game losing streak which was their longest losing streak since mid-September.  San Francisco had been on a 27-14 run prior to this 3-game losing streak.  The odds certainly favored that they would get back to winning ways and they have done just that with the wins both Friday and Saturday.  Now Sunday looks like another great spot for the Giants to roll!  German Marquez starts for the Rockies and opponents are crushing him to the tune of a .369 batting average this season!  He is 0-5 with a 9.82 ERA this season!  The Giants counter with Logan Webb here and he is 3-2 this season and has a 2.83 ERA plus he has not allowed any earned runs in his 13 innings over 2 home starts this season.  Last season Webb went 7-5 at home with a 2.83 ERA and the year before he had a 2.26 ERA at home.  San Francisco also has the bullpen edge here.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here even though it is still a bit on the pricier side.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

#914 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - The Rockies (stop the presses!) are off B2B wins!  This is the first time Colorado has won B2B games since mid-September.  In fact, since then the Rockies were on a 7-33 run prior to these B2B victories.  In other words, the odds certainly favor that Colorado's losing ways quickly resume.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and, prior to yesterday's win, the Rockies had lost 13 straight road games!  The Giants are on a 3-game losing streak which, ironically, is also their first such streak since mid-September last season.  Since then, San Francisco was on a 27-14 run prior to this 3-game losing streak.  The odds certainly favor that they get back to winning ways here at home Friday.  Senzatela starts for the Rockies and opponents are hitting an unheard of .385 against him this season!  He has allowed 7 homers in his last 4 starts.  The Giants counter with Robbie Ray here and he is 3-0 this season and has a 3.73 ERA.  Also, he is holding opponents to a .223 batting average this season and, in his 7 starts last season with Giants, he held opponents to a .189 batting average.  San Francisco also has the bullpen edge here.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!  

ASA play on Golden State Warriors -5 vs. Houston Rockets, 9pm ET - It’s not going out on a limb to say the Warriors Vets, Curry, Butler and Green will be ready for this rematch after the humiliating loss in Houston the other night. Kerr and the Warriors were blown out early and ended up sitting their starters midway through the 3rd quarter. The extra rest will certainly help, but it’s the motivation factor we are counting on. GST won both home games against the Rockets in this series and have won 3 of the last four clashes on this floor. Warriors are 22-13 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average margin of victory of +4.2ppg. We are betting the Rocket see a regression in their shooting after hitting 55% overall last game and 43% from Deep. The advantage of playoff experience shows up here.

#923 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 7:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers as the last time Cannon "started" and went 7 and 2/3 innings but it was after an "opener" pitched the first inning.  Great set up here. Astros are off a loss and have gone 9-1 the last 10 times they have entered a game off a loss.  The White Sox are off a rare win.  Chicago is only 8-23 this season and a big reason for that is they can not sustain any winning form.  The White Sox are 1-6 this season when entering a game off a win.  Framber Valdez starts for Houston and has inflated numbers the last 4 starts simply because of one bad outing.  In the other 3 starts Valdez has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in 20 innings for a 1.80 ERA.  He is capable of dominating the light-hitting White Sox.  Chicago starts Jonathan Cannon here and he has had one scoreless outing the last 5 outings but he allowed 16 earned runs in 22.2 innings in the other 4 recent outings.  White Sox are 5-17 this season against teams that currently have a winning record while the Astros are 8-4 this season against teams that currently have a losing record.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a road rout!  Lay the run line in this one!  

Premier League #200070 ASA PLAY ON Manchester City -1.5 goals (+110) over Wolverhampton, Friday at 3 ET - Both clubs are hot but the key here is Wolverhampton has played a number of weaker teams consecutively.  Not only is Manchester City much higher in the standings and the much stronger team overall, their recent wins have included a number of victories over strong opponents.  City is at home for this one and they have impressively adjusted well to being without Haaland and their defensive play has been much stronger recently.  Manchester City is on a legitimate heater and Wolverhampton will struggle to keep up here as they finally face a more formidable foe after winning a stretch of matches over weak opponents.  The last 4 meetings with City as the host were all wins for Manchester City and the aggregate score of those matches was 13-2. We will take Manchester City on the goal line in this one at -1.5 goals.

ASA NBA play on Golden State Warriors +4 at Houston Rockets, 7:30pm ET - The biggest concern for the Rockets heading into the postseason was their offense and who can consistently make shots in crunch time. Houston has the 12th rated Offensive Net rating in the postseason at 107.4 with an EFG% of 49.6% which ranks 14th. Granted, some of those struggles can be attributed to a very good Warriors defense. Golden State is 7th in Net Rating in the playoffs, the Rockets are 10th. I’ll be the first to admit I like the Rockets to win this series, and they may win tonight but whatever points are available are worth the grab because even if they win it’s going to be close. Looking back at the 9 games between these two teams this season we find they’ve all been relatively tight with only two being decided by double-digits. With Houston struggling to score (under 95 points in 3 of four games), we will grab the points with Golden State. Warriors 11-7 ATS as a road dog this season.

#908 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are expected to have Dustin May on the mound here while the Marlins are going with Edward Cabrera.  Note that LA's May has been practically unhittable at home with a 0.82 ERA and a .108 batting average against with 13 strikeouts in 11 innings over his two home starts.  The Marlins Cabrera is off to a rough start this season as big hits and some command issues with his pitches have done him in.  Also, all those outings were at home and now he is on the road where he went 3-5 with a 5.28 ERA last season and also 0-7 with a 5.96 ERA the season before that as he has not traveled well!  The Marlins are on a 4-8 slide overall and also have lost 6 of last 9 road games.  Before yesterday's 1-run loss, Miami's last 6 road losses included 5 by a multi-run margin.  In fact those 5 losses were by an average margin of 7 runs!  As for the Dodgers, they have won 5 of last 6 road games and are a solid 12-3 at home on the season!  Los Angeles has the better bullpen numbers and also ranks 4th in the majors for slugging percentage while Miami ranks in the middle of the pack.  The Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in 4 of last 5 games while Marlins averaged 3.5 runs per game last 4 games before the 7-6 loss yesterday.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one looks like a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

ASA NBA play of Indiana Pacers +4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks (Game 4, April 27 9:30pm ET) - Indiana has been the better overall team in this series and the Game 3 loss simply came down to them missing shots because the Bucks defense wasn’t any better than they were in Games 1 & 2. We expect the Pacers to bounce back in a big way and we will not be shocked if they win this game outright, rather easily. Indiana is 17-13-2 ATS after a loss (+2.9 PPG differential) and went 12-3 SU in their final 15 regular-season games with a +7.5 PPG differential (6th). The Pacers’ 9th rated offense (115.4 nONR ) and 7th-ranked fast-break points (13.7 PPG) exploit Milwaukee’s 23rd-ranked defensive net rating and 22nd-ranked transition defense. The Pacers 51.9% and 49% shooting in Games 1 and 2 wins, despite a 43% dip in Game 3, signals a likely up-tick in Game 4. Milwaukee’s Game 3 win (117-101) hinged on Gary Trent Jr.’s unsustainable 37 points (9-of-12 3s), far above his 13.7 PPG average. With Damian Lillard not 100%, the Bucks’ depth is thin, as seen in Game 1 when non-Giannis starters scored 14 points. Expect Pascal Siakam (25.0 PPG) and Tyrese Haliburton (9.3 APG) to leverage rebounding and pace for a close game or even pull the upset. The Pacers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss and primed for this road victory.

ASA NBA play on: Houston Rockets +3.5 vs. Golden State Warriors (Game 3, Saturday, 8:30pm ET) - Despite the Warriors’ strong 25-17 SU home record this season, they are 13-18-1 ATS mark as home favorites (41.9%) and have been a play against in that role. The Rockets, with a 23-17 straight-up road record and a +2.7 points per game road differential (6th in the NBA), have proven they can compete away from home. After a loss in Game 1 of this series, the Rockets bounced back with a solid all-around performance in a Game 2 win. Houston won 109-94, led by Jalen Green’s 38 points (8-of-18 from three) and Şengün’s 17 points and 16 rebounds. The Rockets’ rebounding/size advantage was evident, as they outrebounded Golden State 47-33 in Game 2, including 11 offensive rebounds that led to 18 second-chance points. Houston’s league-leading offensive rebounding rate (over 50% when Şengün and Steven Adams play together) gives them a significant edge in generating extra possessions. Houston’s perimeter defense, which allows the second-fewest three-point attempts (31.2) and makes (11.3) per game, is tailor-made to limit Golden State’s three-point-heavy offense. Houston is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Chase Center. Golden State, conversely, is just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 home playoff games as favorites. The Rockets can exploit Golden State’s 22nd-ranked defensive rebounding (69.8% rate) and Butler’s potential absence in this game (listed as questionable as of this writing).

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -3 vs. LA Lakers, 9:30pm ET - The Timberwolves dominated Game 1 with a 117-95 blowout, the Lakers responded in Game 2 with a 94-85 win. Even in their Game 2 loss, the Wolves kept the game close despite shooting just 38% overall and 20% from beyond the arc.  Minnesota’s home record is solid at 26-15 this season with an average – of +7.1ppg and they’re 23-13 straight-up as home favorites, +7.3ppg. The Wolves defense, ranked 5th in the league (109.3 points allowed per game) and 11th in Defensive Net rating. In comparison the Lakers ranked 23rd in DNR and gave up 112ppg in the regular season.  LA’s reliance on Luka Dončić (37 points in Game 1, 31 in Game 2) and LeBron James (21 points in Game 2) is clear, but their supporting cast has been inconsistent—non-Dončić players shot just 1-for-13 from three in Game 2. We are betting the Wolves have a much better shooting night at home against this Lakers D and don’t see the Lakers shooting well above their expectations, which is what it will take to get this road win. Lay it!

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +1.5 vs NY Knicks Game 3 Thursday, 7pm ET - I’m betting the Pistons take Game 3 against the Knicks on Thursday. They’ve outplayed New York in 6 of 8 quarters this series, splitting the first two games, with a 123-112 loss in Game 1 and a 100-94 win in Game 2. Detroit’s been a top-10 team on both ends of the court since February, led by Cade Cunningham (26.1 points, 9.1 assists, 6.1 rebounds), who had 33 points and 12 rebounds in Game 2. They’ve also won 3 of 4 regular-season matchups and out-rebounded the Knicks 48-34 in Game 2. The Pistons grabbed 12 offensive boards in G2 which led to 13-second chance points.  The Knicks are just 15-13 against winning teams this season and 6-16 against top-10 point differential teams like Detroit (ninth). With home-court energy, we like the young Pistons over the Knicks in Game 3.

#904 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - The White Sox have now lost 9 of 10 games and 8 of those 9 losses were via a multi-run margin of defeat.  It will be tough for the White Sox to keep up here as they have scored an average of only 2 runs per game in their last 9 losses.  Chris Paddack had a tough start to this season but has been much stronger in his last two starts with only one earned run allowed in each start.  Paddack allowed only 5 hits while striking out 11 over 10 innings in those two starts.  Last season at home Paddack was 4-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his 9 starts.  Chicago counters with Shane Smith here.  Smith is a rookie who was off to a good beginning to this season over his first 3 starts but the White Sox right-hander hit 3 batters in most recent start and allowed 3 earned runs in 4 and 2/3 innings.  Issues with command for Smith and it could all unravel for him here on the road and facing a Twins team that has won 4 straight home games.  Also, 8 of 9 Twins victories this season have come by a multi-run margin.  Lay it with the home team here as we look for another blowout road loss here for the White Sox as the Twins hold all the edges in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the home team on the run line in this one early Thursday.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -3 vs. Golden State Warriors Game 2 9:30pm ET - I’m backing the Houston Rockets to cover the -3 spread against the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 on Wednesday night at Toyota Center. After a 95-85 loss in Game 1, the Rockets are poised to bounce back at home, where they’ve been dominant. Houston went 30-11 at home during the regular season, covering the spread in 24 of those games, and they’re 7-2 against the spread as a home favorite of 3+ points. The Rockets shot 45.1% overall and 35% from Deep on their home court this season but managed just 39% and 21% in Game 1. Their elite defense (fourth-best in the NBA, allowing 110.8 points per 100 possessions) can stifle the Warriors’ offense, which scored 95 points in Game 1 despite Steph Curry’s 31-point outburst. The Rockets also dominated the offensive glass (22-6 advantage in Game 1) and lead the league with 18.1 second-chance points per game, a key edge against Golden State’s smaller lineups. With Jalen Green (21 points per game) and Fred VanVleet (14 points) due for better shooting nights after a combined 7-for-33 in Game 1, Houston should cover the -3 spread.

NBA play on: LA Lakers -5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:00 PM ET - Line has moved from 4 to 5.5 since we wrote this game but we like LA to win by double digits. The Lakers were embarrassed at home in Game 1 and are in a prime situation to bounce back at home. Minnesota owned Game 1, leading by as many as 27 points behind Anthony Edwards’ 32 points and 21 made 3’s as a team. The Lakers’ offense, which ranked 7th in offensive rating (116.8) post-trade deadline, should rebound at home in this must-win situation. The Lakers shot just 40% overall from the field, well below their season average of 47.8% (7th). Doncic did his job with 37 points but needs to get his teammates more involved (1 assist). LeBron was pretty much a non-factor with 19 points and 5 rebounds, but expect a much better stat line from the Vet in Game 2. The Lakers went 31-10 at home in the regular season, covering this minus-4 spread in 16 of their last 20 home games. The Timberwolves’ top-10 offense (115.7 Net Rating) is legit,but their Game 1 outburst of 50% from 3 is unlikely to happen again, as they shot 37.8% from deep this season. The home team won and covered all four meetings in the regular season. Our model projects a double-digit Lakers win.

ASA NBA Pacers -3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:00 PM ET - No Zig-Zag here as the Pacers are the better/deeper team. Indiana dominated Game 1, never trailing and building a 28-point lead before easing to a 117-98 victory that was closer than the game felt. The Pacers shot a scorching 61% through three quarters and locked down Milwaukee’s shooters, holding them to 24.3% from three. Giannis Antetokounmpo balled out with 36 points and 12 rebounds, but the Bucks’ other starters were brutal, scraping together just 14 points on 5-of-20 shooting (25%). Even if Damian Lillard returns from his blood clot absence, his conditioning after a month off won’t be playoff-sharp. Indiana’s been great at home, boasting a 15-3 SU record post-All-Star break and a 5-1 SU mark in their last six home games against Milwaukee. Riding a +7.3 Net Rating over their final 15 regular-season games, the Pacers’ deep lineup, led by Pascal Siakam (25 points) and Myles Turner (19 points), overwhelmed Milwaukee’s thin roster. Indiana’s fast-paced, transition-heavy attack (4th in the NBA) exploits the Bucks’ mediocre transition defense (18th). Our model projects a 118-110 Pacers win, comfortably covering the -3.5 spread.

#200194 ASA PLAY ON Tottenham Pick'em (-110) over Nottingham Forest, Monday at 3 ET - With their success in the Europa League Thursday a huge weight is lifted off the shoulders of Tottenham and we expect them to play much better here as a result in this Premier League match-up Monday. Tottenham got hammered in their most recent EPL match but that was on the road and they might have had one eye on their Europa League showdown with Eintracht Frankfurt. Now they are back home where their most recent EPL match as a host was a 3-1 win. We expect the Hotspur to come up big here at home and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would be a push since the goal line is at a pick'em. We do expect the outright win however as Tottenham gets revenge for a 1-0 loss at Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day.  Prior to that meeting, Tottenham had won each of the 3 prior meetings by a 2-goal margin!   Nottingham is fading some here late in the season and off B2B losses in which they scored only 1 goal in the 2 matches combined.  The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one and we expect the win and a cashed ticket for us here. We will take Tottenham on the goal line in this one.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -12.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7pm ET - We like the Cavs big over the Heat on Sunday. Miami has elite home statistics and Miami’s likely fatigued after two huge emotional road wins in Chicago then Atlanta. Cleveland boasts a 34-7 SU record at home with a +11.5 PPG differential, the second-highest in the NBA. Their efficiency stats are stellar: a +9.2 net rating (3rd), 121.0 offensive rating (1st), and 55.7% EFG% (1st), with a top-tier defense allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions (6th). Cleveland is well rested here after having the luxury of sitting starters the final week of the season with the #1 seed locked up in the Eastern Conference. The Heat, coming off draining road games in Chicago and Atlanta, and also playing their 5th road game in their last six total. Miami’s offense struggles with a 112.4 offensive rating (21st) and 54.4.1% eFG% (19th), while their +1.2 PPG differential and 18-23-1 ATS road record are subpar. Cleveland was recently a -14.5 point home favorite against the Bulls who rate similarly to the Heat and the Cavs won that game by 22. Cleveland was also recently -10.5 point chalk at home against the Knicks and they won by 19. Miami stepped up and got two big wins against teams that had sub .500 records. Now they get one of the three best teams in the NBA with a massive rest advantage and at home. It’s a blowout.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -13 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 1pm ET - We like the Oklahoma City Thunder (-13.5) to dominate the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 on April 20, 2025, at home. OKC’s league-best net rating (+12.7) and defensive rating (106.6) fuel their +15.2 ppg home differential and NBA-high 54 double-digit wins. They swept Memphis 4-0 this season by an average of 16.5 points. The Grizzlies, fatigued from emotional play-in games against Golden State and Dallas, have seen their defense slip, ranking 13th in defensive net rating (115.7) over their last 15 games. Memphis has issues taking care of the basketball ranking 28th in turnovers per game at 15.6 (28th). OKC averages the fewest TO’s per game at 11.5 and force the most TO’s in the NBA at 16.8. We are not typically fans of laying chalk like this, but we’ll make an exception here.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at LA Lakers, 8:30PM ET - The Wolves’ 24-17 road record (+2.9 PPG) and efficiency advantages (116.6 PPP offense, 111.5 PPP defense) give them an edge over the Lakers’ 8-7 recent form and weaker metrics (115.9 PPP offense, 114.7 PPP defense). Minnesota’s 11-4 SU run with a +9.8ppg average differential has them playing at an elite level. The Wolves are led by Anthony Edwards (27.4 PPG), and have complimentary pieces with Randle, Gobert and Conley. Granted the Lakers have Luka and LeBron, but the supporting cast isn’t as deep as this T’Wolves roster. The big difference in this game will be the defenses. The Wolves have the much better defense (Minn 6th in DEFF, Lakers 15th in DEFF) which makes them live underdog in this price range. Despite the Lakers’ home strength (31-10 SU), and public betting (heavy % on LA), the line has trickled down slightly, telling us where the smart money is going. The Wolves are 7-5 SU, 8-3-1 ATS as a dog of +5 or fewer points this season. Despite the Lakers impressive home court record their season, their average margin of victory at home is just +4.8ppg. In what shapes up to be a tight game from start to finish we like the underdog and the points with Minnesota.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +7 at NY Knicks, 6pm ET - The Pistons have been a different beast since January with some of the best overall statistics in the NBA. From January 1 onward, they played 37 games, finishing with a 23-14 record—a 62% win rate. They averaged 116.8 points per game while holding opponents to 113.2, giving them a +3.6 point differential. Their offensive rating sat at 115.2 (13th in the league), and their defensive rating was 111.8 (9th). Cade Cunningham has been the engine, averaging 27.4 points, 9.3 assists, and 6.2 rebounds against all teams since January, while shooting 36.1% from deep. Against the Knicks specifically, he’s been a nightmare, dropping 30.8 points, 8.3 assists, and 5 rebounds per game across the season series, including a 36-point, 10-assist outburst on January 13. Now, let’s look at the Knicks’ struggles against playoff-caliber teams this season. They went a dismal 6-16 against teams with top-10 point differentials, including 0-8 against the East’s top two seeds, Cleveland and Boston, and 4-8 against the West’s top six. Their last win against a team with a better record than them was back on February 3 against the Rockets—over two months ago. The Pistons, since mid-December, have the ninth-best point differential in the league, meaning they qualify as one of those “good teams” the Knicks struggle with. New York’s offense is legit, ranking fifth in offensive rating at 117.3, but their defense (113.3, 13th) has been exposed by dynamic guards like Cunningham. Jalen Brunson, averaging 28.3 points and 7.8 assists against Detroit, is coming off an ankle injury that sidelined him for 15 games late in the season, and he might not be at his playoff best yet. Detroit has veteran leadership with Harris and Hardaway Jr and won’t be intimidated by the venue, especially since two of three wins against the Knicks came at Madison Square Garden.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 10pm ET - It seemed these two teams were literally trying to give the season away down the final stretch with both going 6-9 SU their last 15 games. A closer look and the Kings were actually better statistically with a negative Net Rating of -1.6 compared to the Mavs -7.3. In recent games the Kings are 4-2 SU but the two losses came against the Nuggets and Clippers who are playing well right now. Dallas is 2-4 SU in their last six games and the two wins were against the Hawks by 2-points and the Raptors. Three of the four losses in that stretch were blowouts by Memphis 97-132, the Lakers 97-112, and the Clippers twice by 31 and 23-points. The Mavericks can have the best player on the floor if Anthony Davis shows up, but the Kings have the next three best players in Sabonis, LaVine and DeRozan. Sacramento has won all 3 meetings with the Mavs this season and I expect it to be a 4-0 sweep after Wednesday.

ASA NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies +7 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - This won’t be a popular bet, but the value clearly lies with the Grizzlies in this one. Memphis has played well with a 4-2 SU record in their last six games. They suffered two straight losses to Minnesota and Denver but were in a tough situation in both games. Against the Wolves they had just lost starter Jaylen Wells the game before in a horrific fall and injury which rattled the team chemistry. They then had to travel to Denver without rest and lost to a surging Nuggets team. They rested a few starters in their season finale against the Mavs and yet won convincingly. They will be fresh for this game with the extra rest. In this current 6-game stretch the Grizzlies have the 6th best Net Rating in the NBA at +4.7. These teams recently met in Golden State with the Grizzlies dominating the majority of the game before losing 125-134. Golden State is 23-7 SU with Jimmy Butler but just average against the spread in their last 23 games at 10-11-2 ATS. The Warriors are 3-4 SU their last seven home games with an average +/- of +0.1ppg. Memphis on the road is 4-5 SU in their last nine away games but their average differential in those games is just -0.7ppg. Steph Curry may not be 100% in this game with a sore thumb and if he isn’t hitting 3’s the Warriors will not only have a tough time covering but winning outright.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:30pm ET - This is a case of good offense, bad defense against bad offense and good defense. In the last 15 games the Hawks have the 4th best Offensive Net rating in the league at 121.4 compared to the Magic’s ONR of 114.1 which ranks 19th. On the flip side though, in that same 15-game stretch, the Magic rank 1st in Defensive Net rating at 108.1. Atlanta is 20th in DNR at 116.4. Even though the Hawks defense isn’t going to magically change and be great in this game, we trust their offense. We can’t say the same thing about Orlando who will be great defensively, but we don’t trust their offense. The Magic rank 27th in shooting at 44.5% overall, 30th in 3PT% at 31.8%. Orlando ranks 29th in EFG% at 51% for the season which is second to last in the NBA. This has been a tight season series with each team winning 2 of the four clashes. Those four games were decided by 7, 6, 6 and 12-points. Orlando doesn’t have much of a home crowd and were 21-19-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of -2.1ppg. Atlanta was 23-18 ATS on the road this season with an average +/- of -0.9ppg. We expect a tight game from start to finish and Trae Young/Hawks can easily pull the upset.

#908 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-155) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - The Rockies are 1-8 on the road this season including 7 straight road losses all by 2 or more runs!  Colorado has been outscored by a combined 36 to 7 in those 7 road defeats!  The Rockies are known for being bad on the road year in and year out and this season has started no differently.  Senzatela starts for Colorado here and he has miraculously allowed 0 earned runs on 19 hits in less than 10 innings over his 2 road starts this season!  The Dodgers are likely to pound the very hittable Senzatela and this time there is a big breakthrough in terms of runs scored.  Los Angeles is in the perfect bounce back spot after B2B losses to the Cubs to end that series including a very ugly defeat Saturday.  The Dodgers will be dialed in and focused here as they look to stop the bleeding.  Dustin May gets the start here and he has a .201 BAA in his career and, unlike Senzatela, he has been tough to hit this season.  Lay it with the home team here as we look for another blowout road loss here for Colorado as the Dodgers hold all the edges in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the home team on the run line in this one!

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +4 at Golden State Warriors, 3:30 pm ET - The Clippers are quietly flying under the radar right now but this team is playing at an extremely high level right now with a healthy roster. Over the past 15 games the Clippers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +16.2. They rank 1st in both Offensive and Defensive Net rating with a 13-2 SU record. Those wins for the Clippers have come by a wide margin too with an average +/- in those 15 games of +15.4. They are 5-1 SU their last six road games with an average MOV of +12.2ppg. Golden State has played very well with the addition of Jimmy Butler but even their numbers don’t compare with the Clippers current run. Golden State is 9th in Net Rating at +6.5 over their last 15 games with a 10-5 SU record. The Warriors haven’t been unbeatable at home either with a 4-3 record their last seven at home with an average MOV in those games of +1.3ppg. Both teams have a ton to play for as a win here keeps them out of the playin field. We expect a very tight game and like the edge the Clippers clearly have with the Warriors with a 3-0 record against them this season. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -5.5 vs. the LA Lakers, 3:30pm ET - The Lakers are sitting every impactful player on the roster as they are locked into the 3 seed in the West which makes this essentially a throw away game for them. Porland on the other hand has been eliminated from the playoffs for a while now but also have no reason to tank in the final game of the season. The young roster of the Blazers should be up for this game at home against the brand-name Lakers. The Blazers have lost two straight overall and 3 of four at home but the three losses at home all came against the Warriors, Cavs and Celtics. Just how bad will the Lakers lineup be today…they will probably start Bronny, who isn’t even a good G-league player. Lay the points with the Blazers.

ASA NBA play Denver Nuggets -9 at Houston Rockets, 3:30pm ET - We know one thing for sure in this game…the Nuggets will play to win. Denver is in a must-win situation here as a loss could send them to the playin tournament, whereas a win can get them home court in the first round and the #4 seed. The Rockets are locked into the #2 seed and have sat everyone important the last two games so why would Udoka play his starters here and jeopardize their health? The Rockets reserves have been horrendous defensively the past two games allowing 134 and 140 to the two Los Angeles teams. The Clippers shot 53% overall and 51% from Deep, the Lakers shot 61% and 51% against the Rockets second unit. Today the Rockets face the best shooting team in the league of the Nuggets who hit 50.6% overall and 37.6% from the 3PT line (6th best). Granted this is an inflated line with the Nuggets on the road laying nearly double-digits but we at least know they’ll play hard and have to bet the Rockets rest everyone, even though their starters have not been released for this game yet.

ASA NHL LA Kings -1.5 vs. Colorado Avalanche - 4pm ET - The Kings are poised to cover the -1.5 spread against the Avalanche. Colorado, locked into third in the Central, has little to play for, likely resting key players. Meanwhile, LA is chasing home-ice advantage for the playoffs, boasting a stellar 30-9 home record—the NHL’s best. The Kings also have extra motivation after dropping both prior games to the Avs this season. In net, Colorado’s Blackwood has faltered, posting a 1-3 record and allowing 12 goals over his last four starts. LA’s Kemper, however, is in top form, winning 7 of his last 9 starts with a 1.4 GAA across his last 10. Expect the Kings to dominate at home.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs Memphis Grizzlies, 9pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as they battle for better positioning in the Western Conference. Memphis is at a scheduling disadvantage here having played a monster game last night against the T’Wolves. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, but the 3rd game in four nights for the Grizz. Memphis has been surprisingly good when playing without rest, but this will be in altitude in Denver. Ironically both teams are considered to be contenders in the West and both recently fired their head coaches. Denver is off a win in Sacramento on Wednesday and looked much better after 4 straight losses. The Nugs are 25-15 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.7ppg. Denver clearly has a match up advantage here as they’ve won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Grizz including 5 straight home wins. Lay it with Denver.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30pm ET - Somebody forgot to tell the Raptors that their season was over with. This young roster continues to play hard with a 6-3 SU record in their last nine games. The biggest indicator that this team hasn’t quit is their defensive statistics. The Raptors have the 3rd best Defensive Rating over the past 15 games, 1st in the last ten. The offensive numbers aren’t great, but they don’t have to be against a Mavs defense that is 18th in opponents FG% defense, 21st defending the 3-point line. Even with their season on the line in recent weeks this Mavs D ranks 16th in the league in DNR over the past 10 games. Dallas was recently in a must-win situation against a similar Nets team at home and favored by 10-points. They lost that game outright. In fact, Dallas is 0-3 ATS their last three games when favored by -6.5 or more points. Toronto is on a 4-1 ATS winning streak on the road and we trust they’ll compete against the Mavs tonight.

ASA NHL play on LA Kings -1.5 -125 vs. Anaheim Ducks, 10pm ET - We like the Kings to smack the Ducks by at least two goals (-1.5 spread) on Thursday night. Kuemper’s been a beast in net, rocking a 1.40 GAA and .940 save percentage since March, and he’s kept every game tight—two or fewer goals allowed in his last 14 starts. Dostal’s been decent for Anaheim, but his 3.52 GAA and .885 save percentage over his last six games don’t bode well, especially with the Ducks’ shaky D giving up over 31 shots a night. Plus, LA’s owned this matchup, winning 8 of the last 10. The Kings have one of the best home ice advantages in hockey with a 29-5-4 record and 3 of their last four games have been decided by multiple goals. With Anaheim off a game last night (1-4 last 5 without rest) it's going to be tough to get back up for this California showdown. The Kings did lose the last meeting (in the shootout) 2-1 in early February. Perfect spot for Revenge!

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 8:10pm ET - This is an interesting line considering the Bulls were +5 in Miami in early March, which should have them favored here, but yet they find themselves a home dog. Chicago did have a game last night against Cleveland, but the Bulls rested 103 of their 117-points per game with White, Giddy, Vucevic, Huerter and Ball all sitting in preparation for this game. This game has huge playoff implications with these two teams sitting 9th and 10th in the Eastern Conference with identical 36-43 records. The winner will have the leg-up in gaining in home court for that 1 game play scenario. Miami is 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 1-2 in their last three games. Chicago is also 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 3-1 in their last four games with the loss last night in Cleveland. In each team's last 15 games the Bulls have the 9th best Net Rating at +4.5, the Heat are 13th at +2.6. Miami has better overall defensive statistics for the season, but the Bulls Defensive Net rating over their last 15 games of 113.3 is 12th best in the league compared to Miami at 20th. We are betting value here with the home team Bulls.

ASA play on LA Clippers -12.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 10:40pm ET - The Clippers are hot right now, having won 14 of 17, while covering 12 of their last 13 and 6 of their last 7. Los Angeles has also covered 9 of their last twelve at home. The Spurs' longshot playoff hopes have ended after losing seven of their last eight games. Just how good are the Clippers playing right now you ask? LA has the 2nd best Net rating in the NBA at +15.0 in their last five games with a 4-1 SU record. In their last 10 games they are +15.7 in Net rating with an 8-2 record and an average plus/minus of +15.0ppg. San Antonio is 3-7 SU in their last ten games with a minus -6.0ppg differential. Five of the Spurs’ last seven losses have come by double-digits. The Clippers are in a heated race for a better playoff position, and they have 3 HUGE games on deck against other playoff teams which makes this game a high priority. Lay the points.

#224205 ASA PLAY ON Real Madrid +0.50 (-125) at Arsenal, Tuesday at 3 PM ET - Arsenal seems a bit over-valued here just because they are at home. They are missing some key players here and that makes this spot even better for Real Madrid. We were already looking the way of the visitors in this 1st Leg battle as Real Madrid is off a loss. They lost 2 to 1 at home versus Valencia in La Liga action and could have been guilty of looking ahead to this big Champions League battle. Real Madrid has scored 10 goals in last 4 games. Arsenal has scored only 7 goals in last 5 games. This means even more value with the +0.5 goal at a very fair price here. The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one. We will take Real Madrid on the goal line in this one.

#702 ASA PLAY ON Houston +1.5 over Florida, Monday at 8:50 PM ET - We think the better team is the dog here and we’ll grab the Cougars in this match up. What a run they’ve had beating Gonzaga, Purdue, Tennessee, and Duke in the NCAA, all top 15 teams per KenPom and 3 of those were top 8 teams. Houston beat the best team in the country (per KenPom) on Saturday holding the 4th best shooting team in the nation a full 10% below their season average (Duke shot 40% vs Houston). Duke was averaging 1.30 PPP (#1 in the country) and the Cougars D (ranked #1 in efficiency) held the Devils to only 1.10 PPP. The Florida offense is very good as well, but they don’t shoot it nearly as well as Duke ranking outside the top 50 in FG% and outside the top 90 in 3 point FG%. The Gators offense averaged only 1.10 PPP vs Auburn on Saturday and they’ve now been held below their season PPP average in 5 of their last 6 games. Now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve faced this season. The Gators have had a problem with turnovers offensively this season, including in the NCAA tourney where they coughed it up 18%, 18%, 23%, 17% and 22% of their possessions in their 5 NCAA tourney games. None of the defensive units they’ve faced create turnovers like this Houston team does (24th nationally). In a close game, those extra possessions for Houston could be the difference. On the other end of the court, the Cougs can shoot it. It’s not discussed as often as their defense, but this team ranks #1 in the nation hitting 40% of their triples. They faced 2 top 5 defenses in their last 2 games (Duke & Tennessee) and made 19 of their 47 triples (40.4%) vs those 2 teams. They averaged 1.17 PPP and 1.15 PPP in those 2 games vs defenses (both top 5 defensive efficiency) that are both rated higher than this Florida team. The Gators often have a positive shot volume due to their offensive rebounding (5th in the country) but we feel that will be offset by the Cougars who are great on the offensive glass as well (10th in the country). This Houston team will again be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they’ve been tabbed an underdog again in the National Championship game after getting points in the Final 4 as well. They’ve only been an underdog twice since the start of the 2022 season and won both of those games outright (vs Duke & Kansas). They have won 18 straight games, 3 of their 4 losses this season have come in OT, and they have 1 loss since December 7th and that was in OT by 1 point vs a very good Texas Tech team. We like the coaching match up as well with veteran Kelvin Sampson (coaching in his 51st NCAA tourney game) vs newcomer Todd Golden (coaching in his 8th NCAA tourney game). Sampson outcoached Jon Sheyer and Duke on Saturday and we like his chances to do the same on Monday night. Let’s take Houston to win it all.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:10pm ET - Both teams have plenty to play for with playoff positioning on the line. Denver is the more desperate though as they could essentially fall all the way to 8th in the West and be in the play in games. Obviously a top 4 seed assures them of home court in the first round which is critical. Denver has the best home court in the NBA dating back to the start of the 2022 season with a 106-33 SU record. They’ve won those games by an average of +8.1ppg. While we are at it, the Nuggets are also 63-29 SU off a loss dating back to 2022. The Nugs have lost 3 in a row but two of those came against the Wolves and Warriors who are both surging in the West. On paper it looks like Indiana is coming alive for a strong postseason push but the numbers are a bit deceiving. The Pacers have been at home for 8 of their last ten games and 5 of those came against a few of the worst teams in the NBA (Utah, Charlotte, Nets 2x, and Wizards). Indiana has been average on the road this season with an 18-20 SU record, 17-22 ATS. The offensive and defensive numbers are pretty similar for each team and both have key injuries with Siakam out for the Pacers and Murray out for Denver. Historically, Denver has dominated the Pacers with 9 straight wins and given the circumstances we like them to make it 10 in a row by a big margin.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns +9.5 at NY Knicks, 7:10pm ET - The Knicks are in a tough scheduling situation here as they are coming off a game in Atlanta yesterday and have a HUGE game on deck against the Celtics. New York is basically locked into the 3 seed in the East barring a disastrous finish by them and a miraculous one by the Pacers. Phoenix on the other hand is in full-blown desperation time right now sitting 11th in West, two games behind the Kings. New York has been terrible this season when playing without rest with a 2-11 ATS record. Largely due to coach Thibs short rotation which he has been rightly criticized for in the past. The Knicks have a negative differential of minus -5.5ppg when playing the second night of a back-to-back. New York is 19-18-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of plus +7.1ppg. The Suns have lost 5 straight games but two of those came against the Celtics, one versus the Bucks and one each to Houston and Minnesota. Phoenix is the 8th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 48% and rank 3rd in 3PT% at 38.3%. The Knicks defense isn’t what it used to be, ranking 23rd in opponents FG% and 27th in 3PT% D. Granted, the Suns defensive numbers look eerily similar to the Knicks as does New York’s offense compared to the Suns, but there isn’t a big enough discrepancy to lay nearly double-digits. Phoenix is 12-27 SU away this season but their average MOV in those games is -5.5ppg which clearly gets us a cover.

#960 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Miami Marlins, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - As mentioned here yesterday in our write-up on Atlanta, a 10-0 winner to open this series, the Braves were 0-7 to start the season but all their games were on the road and they faced the Padres and Dodgers!  Those are two very tough teams and, in fact, prior to yesterday's action they were a combined 15-0 so far this season!  The Braves in this series are now finally facing a weaker team and plus this is Atlanta's first home series of the season.  Seeing Atlanta, after starting this season with an 0-7 record, again favored by more than a -200 price might surprise some but we fully expected this.  Of course the Braves are much better than their record shows plus they have a solid pitching edge again here.  Cal Quantrill gets the start for the Marlins and he is not the same pitcher he was in his first few years with Cleveland.  In his final season in Cleveland in 2023, he had a 5.24 ERA and then he followed that with a 4.98 ERA with Colorado last season.  Now with his 3rd team in 3 years, Quantrill began his season with a very ugly outing plus now is facing a Braves team that got its swagger back with last night's huge win at home.  AJ Smith-Shawver starts for the Braves here and, though he has limited MLB experience, he has been tough to hit with a .205 opponents batting average in his 8 appearances (7 starts) at the MLB level.  In his 57 career minor league starts he also has allowed only a .200 batting average as well so this is a guy with a solid repertoire of pitches.  As we mentioned yesterday, if you look at stats so far this season you will see that Miami has the better numbers but, entering this season the Marlins were projected to lose about 100 games this season while the Braves had a season win total that projected them to only lose about 59 games!  The Braves, just like yesterday, take advantage of home field and a starting pitching edge and they get another much needed win.  We have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 with the run line as we project another home blowout here!

ASA play on Dallas Mavericks +10.5 at LA Clippers, 10:30pm ET - This line is clearly inflated with the recent success of the Clippers so let’s bet value with the Mavericks. This number should be -7.5 at the most and a great comparison is what the Clippers were favored by recently at home against the 17-win Hornets of -13.5. Dallas was also recently +7 at Orlando without Gafford or Washington in the lineup and Anthony Davis was still working back into game-shape. The Mavs health is obviously key and tonight they have all three of the previously mentioned players available for this game against the Clippers. AD had a monster 34-points, 15 rebounds and 5 block game against Atlanta. We are not ignoring the fact that the Clippers have won and covered 8 of their last ten games, but again that has influenced the number on this game, giving us value with the dog. Both have plenty to play for as they fight for better playoff positioning. Dallas has covered 5 of the last seven meetings with the Clippers including 2 straight in Los Angeles.

#674 ASA PLAY ON UC Irvine -3.5 over Chattanooga, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We faded UCI on Tuesday vs a very good UNT team and they showed some serious resolve getting down 24-9 early and battling back for a 69-67 win.  We were prepared to side with either UCI or UNT in this game no matter who they played if the line was fair.  We’re actually getting a cheap line at -3.5 as our power ratings have Irvine as a 5 point favorite on a neutral.  Chattanooga was impressive in their win on Tuesday over Loyola but they now run into a serious defense for the first time in NIT play.  They shot 52% from the field and 43% from deep vs a Rambler defense that ranks 98th in efficiency.  All 4 teams that the Mocs have faced were ranked 98th or lower in defensive efficiency and now they face a UCI defense that ranks 21st in the nation in that metric.  The best defense in the SoCon was ETSU ranked 131st so this Chattanooga offense hasn’t faced a top 98 defense since facing Indiana back on December 21st.  They had only 2 games this season (out of 37) where they faced a defense ranked in the top 90 and lost both.  Defensively, the Moccasins are at a huge disadvantage here ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  Both offenses shoot the ball well overall and from 3 and while Chattanooga has the better numbers, that surely has something to do with the easy defensive slate of opponents they faced this season.  In yesterday’s win, Irvine shot 50% vs a UNT defense that ranked in the top 35 in eFG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed.  We have no doubt UCI’s offense will have success vs a porous Moc’s defense.  UCI should also have a decent advantage on the boards vs this small Chattanooga team that is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the nation.  The Anteaters should also have an advantage at the FT line where they shoot 80% as a team and they get there a lot (21st nationally in made FT’s per game).  On the other end, UCI fouls very little (7th in FT attempts by opponents) so it will be tough for the Mocs to keep up at the charity stripe.  Irvine has been the better team all year (+30 spots in KenPom) and we’ll lay it in the NIT Championship game.

ASA play on Portland Trailblazers -4.5 at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 pm ET - The Raptors are officially eliminated from the playoffs and are in ‘tank’ mode tonight against the Blazers. Understand, tanking is not asking your players to lose, it’s management telling coaches to sit players for ‘rest’. Tonight’s injury list tonight includes more than half their roster and 4 of five starters. Don’t be misled by the Raptors 4-1 SU run in their last five games as the wins came against Washington, Charlotte, Brooklyn and Philly, the four worst teams in the Eastern Conference. Portland has an outside shot at getting into the playoffs with 4 of their final six games coming against teams with sub .500 records. The Blazers are coming off a solid 14-point win over the Hawks in Atlanta on Tuesday with advantages in rebounding, shooting and had less turnovers. The Raptors have been a solid rebounding team all season long but tonight they’ll be without 3 of their top four rebounders so expect the Blazers to dominate the glass and second-chance baskets. Don’t be intimidated by the fact the Blazers are a road chalk here as they’ve covered 4 of five this season in that role with an average +/- of +10.1ppg.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati -5.5 over UCF, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 Big 12 foes met once this season and Cincy won by 10 at UCF. A few things that stood out in that game was the fact the Bearcats dominated inside making 33 of their 49 two point attempts (67%) which should take place again here as the Golden Knights are 243rd defending inside the arc. Secondly, UCF turned the ball over at a 21% rate in that home loss and we expect a solid advantage for Cincy in the turnover department again as they rank much higher offensive (lower turnover rate) and defensively (higher turnover rate). Lastly, UCF’s leading scorer in that game (and on the season) was Hall with 23 points and he has opted out of this tournament. The Knights beat Oregon State 76-75 yesterday which wasn’t overly impressive as OSU played that game without their 3 top scorers who combine to average 41 PPG on the season. The Beavers put up 75 points on 47% shooting despite missing their 3 best offensive players which is a huge concern. UCF’s defense has been poor all season (15th out of 16 Big 12 teams in defensive efficiency) and allowed Cincinnati to put up 93 points (their 2nd highest point total of the season) on 1.22 PPP in their lone meeting. The Bearcats defense is far superior (20th nationally in defensive efficiency) and on offense they are the better shooting team at 45% (173rd in the country) compared to UCF’s 42% (323rd). Central Florida has a negative FG% differential, 3 point FG% differential and PPG differential while the Bearcats are positive in all of those stats. We like Cincinnati here.

ASA play on Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 8:40pm ET - Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, so each has plenty to play for. Both teams had their season’s derailed by injuries this season, but the Mavs are currently the more intact roster, at home and off a loss. Dallas had won 4 of five games before they laid an egg against the Nets last time out. We like them to bounce back here against a Hawks team coming off a home game last night and playing their 3rd in four nights. The Mavs got Daniel Gafford back last game and also had Anthony Davis for 28 minutes. We expect both to play here considering they had a day off prior to this game. The Hawks are 7-7 ATS this season when playing without rest, 5-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage. Atlanta has struggled against the Western Conference this season with an 11-17 ATS record and a negative differential in those games of minus -7.3ppg. Dallas has a slightly above .500 home record as a favorite this season of 11-10 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +8.0ppg. These teams have similar EDiff ratings for the season and in their most recent 5 games, but again the Mavs are getting healthy. Dallas should knock down plenty of open looks with their 9th best team FG% facing a Hawks defense that ranks 29th in the NBA in FG% defense. The Mavs are also the 13th best 3PT shooting team in the league, the Hawks rank 28th in 3PT% D. Atlanta would typically enjoy a rebounding advantage in this matchup but with Gafford and Davis in the lineup they won’t have that luxury. Easy call for a blowout win here by Dallas.

#954 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - Off last night's 6-1 win, we come right back with the same pick here. The Braves are now 0-5 on the season while the Dodgers are already 6-0 on the season. We again will lay the 1.5 runs on the run line which is available for plus money as of very early Tuesday morning.  Great value here with the Dodgers having scored an average of 5 runs per game (not including the extra innings runs in an 8-5 win) and the Braves averaging only 1.7 runs per game and coming into this one having scored a total of just 1 run in the last 3 games. The Dodgers are the team that is projected to be the most dominant in the majors this season and we look for LA to roll again!  The Dodgers have remained in Southern California all this time since returning from the opening series in Japan that took place over a week and a half ago as they also played some extended spring training games against the Angels before their 3-game sweep of the Tigers here.  They are rolling and it continues!  Atlanta's Sale is a solid veteran pitcher but is unlikely to work deep into this game.  Dustin May is back for the Dodgers and had a solid spring and looks poised to return to top form.  He has held hitters to a .206 batting average in his career.  While LA does not have the big starting pitching edge they had yesterday, their bullpen ERA is 2.37 this season while the Braves pen has a 6.19 ERA.  Couple that with the Dodgers swinging the bats much better than the Braves too so far this season and we have no hesitation in again laying the 1.5 with the run line as we project another blowout here!

ASA NHL play on Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5 goals +145 vs. Nashville Predators, 7pm ET - Columbus is chasing a Wild Card spot in the East with time running out on the regular season. The Blue Jackets are 2-1 in their last 3 games with the most recent being a 2-3 loss to Ottawa. Nashville on the other hand has been officially eliminated from the Playoffs this season. The Predators are 2-8 SU their last nine games with a negative total goal differential of minus -10 total goals. Preds center Colton Sissons is out for tonight along with several others being questionable on the second night of a back-to-back. Nashville is 4-18 as a road dog this season -1185, Columbus is rarely a home favorite, but they are 5-3 in that role +55. When the Preds start goaltender Juuse Saros they are 19-34 this season, when the Blue Jackets start Merzlikins they are 24-24. Nashville is 9-23-5 on the road this season, Columbus is 21-9-5 at home. Scheduling is certainly a factor here as the Preds are 3-9 in the second night of a back-to-back this season with a total goal differential of minus -19 goals.

#650 ASA PLAY ON Butler Pick'em over Utah, Monday at 3 PM ET - Our power ratings have Butler a few spots ahead of Utah and a 1 point favorite which is dead on with what the oddsmakers believe as well.  However, we think the Bulldogs hold some key advantages which will be the difference in this game.  First of all, Utah bad FT shooting team and in what is expected to be a tight game, that can play a huge factor.  The Utes make less than 64% of their FT’s on the season (357th out of 364 teams) and on top of that they won’t get their very often as Butler fouls very little.  Bulldog opponents have scored only 13.5% of their points from the FT line this season which is the 6th lowest mark in college basketball.  So when Utah gets there, they better take advantage and they’ve proven throughout the season they struggle at doing that.  Butler, on the other hand, hits just over 74% of their FT’s and they get there a decent amount with almost 21% of their points come from the charity stripe.  They should have a solid advantage from the FT line as well as from beyond the arc.  Both teams rely fairly heavily on making 3’s (114th and 115th in percentage of points from 3) but the Bulldogs are simply better at shooting it and defending it.  They rank 43rd in the country in 3 point FG% and 49th in the country in opponents 3 point FG%.  Utah ranks 234th and 174th respectively in those 2 key stats.  Neither team has been great when away from home but the Utes have been worse with only 1 road win (road or neutral) the entire season.  They shoot less than 40% overall away from home, less than 30% from 3 and average only 64 PPG while allowed 78 PPG.  Butler has 4 road/neutral site wins on the year and much more stable right now with long time solid head coach Thad Matta at the helm.  Utah, on the other hand, just hired a new head coach, Alex Jensen, but he is on the Dallas Mavs coach staff until the end of the season while this year’s interim and now soon to be leaving, head coach Josh Eilert will be coaching in this tourney.  We like Butler to win this one on Monday afternoon.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -2 at Phoenix Suns, 9pm ET - This number is a bargain as we get a peaking Houston Rockets team against a Suns team that is 11th in the West and has underachieved all season long. Most casual fans don’t realize the Rockets have vaulted to the 2nd seed in the Western Conference with a 10-1 SU winning streak and a healthy roster. Phoenix is in full desperation mode to make the playoffs yet are just 5-5 SU their last ten games. If we take a closer look at each teams last ten games, we find the Rockets have a Net Rating of +8.5, the Suns NR is +0.9. The big separator between these two teams is the defense as the Rockets have the 11th best Defensive Net rating this season, the Suns are 27th. Houston has already beaten this team twice this season by +8 and +7 and we expect a similar win on Sunday in Phoenix. The Rockets are 27-17 SU (+5.1ppg) against other Western Conference opponents this season, the Suns are 21-16 SU (-1.7ppg). Phoenix has been a home underdog just 11 times this season and they’ve lost those games by an average of -5.1ppg going 5-6 SU. Houston is 16-4 SU as a road chalk, +9.0ppg. Take Houston here.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks -4 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:10PM ET - We are going to bet line value with the Bucks minus the short number against the Hawks today in a key Eastern Conference showdown. The Bucks sit 6th in the East, the Hawks are currently 8th so this game has seeding implications for both teams. Milwaukee is coming off a home loss so we expect a concentrated effort here against a Hawks team playing their 3rd straight on the road. These same two teams met in Atlanta earlier this month and the Bucks were favored by -5-points in the Hawks building and are now laying less than that at home. Atlanta isn’t a great shooting team to begin with at 46.9% overall (14th)and 35.6% from Deep (18th) and will struggle against this Bucks defense. Milwaukee has the 4th best FG% defense overall and the 6th best against the 3-pointers. Conversely, the Bucks are 5th in team FG% and 3rd in 3PT% while the Hawks defense is 28th in opponents FG% and 27th in 3PT% defense. The Bucks have had a few games to adjust to life without Dame Lillard and should get this home win by double-digits.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Duke -6.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET - We went against Bama on Thursday and they went crazy.  They took 66 total shots from the field and a ridiculous 51 of those were from 3.  They made 25 triples (49%) which set the NCAA tourney record.  While the Crimson Tide are a solid 3 point shooting team, they aren’t great ranking 75th nationally.  We just don’t see that as a sustainable situation here vs a Duke defense that 5th nationally in efficiency (BYU was 82nd defensively).  If the Tide need to rely a huge number of 3’s again, they’re probably in trouble.  Duke dominated Arizona more than the 100-93 final score.  They led by 19 in the 2nd half before the Cats made a final push.  The Devils shot the 3 well (made 11 triples) but dominated at the rim hitting 61% of their shots inside the arc and now facing Bama defense that isn’t great defensively inside.  Duke was extremely efficient (1.41 PPP) vs a Arizona defense that compares favorably to this Alabama defense (35th and 27th respectively in defensive efficiency).  The Blue Devils were much more well rounded on offense Thursday taking 66 shots but only 19 from deep so they aren’t completely reliant on making 3’s compared to the Tide.  Duke has been the better team all season long and is the only team in the country in the top 5 both offense and defense efficiency wise.  They are in the top 10 in the country in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%, shoot FT’s better (79% to 72%), turn the ball over less (16th to 143rd for Bama), and they are the much better defensive rebounding team limiting 2nd chance points.  They had a huge lead vs a very good Arizona team and almost blew it.  We don’t think that happens in back to back games.  Lay it with Duke.

#638 ASA PLAY ON Houston -8 over Purdue, Friday at 10 PM ET - The only “sort of” advantage Purdue has in this game is the fact it’s being played in Indianapolis which is 70 miles from their campus. However, this game is being played in Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Colts, and not at Gainbridge Fieldhouse (home of the Pacers) where the Big 10 tourney was located. So beyond the PU fanbase, that mitigates the home court as neither team has played here this season. The Boilers offense is predicated on the pick n roll with PG Smith and Kaufman-Renn but the problem is, Houston is by far the best PnR defense in the country. Their hard aggressive hedge with long athletes makes is very tough on opposing offenses that rely in PnR. Purdue is not great at protecting the ball and in fact they turned it over a whopping 28% of the time vs McNeese State in the round of 32. That would normally be lights out, however PU did hit 11 triples and gather 41% of their missed shots to counteract the turnovers. That won’t happen here. They will turn the ball over (Houston 18th in the nation at creating turnovers) but the Cougs are very good on the glass AND they will capitalize on the turnovers, something McNeese did not do posting a 0.91 PPP number. On the other end, Purdue’s 2 point defense is very poor (341st nationally) but they also allow a lot of 3 points attempts (262nd). That’s bad news facing a Houston offense that ranks #1 in the nation hitting 40% of their triples. Purdue has had the benefit of facing High Point and McNeese State (2 double digit seeds) to get to this point. Houston just faced vastly underseeded Gonzaga (top 10 team per KenPom) and controlled the entire game never trailing and leading by as much as 14 points. They led by 11 with only a few minutes remaining when the Zags made a late push losing by 5. Houston has lost ONE game since December 1st and that was in OT vs a very good Texas Tech team that is also in the Sweet 16. The Cougs 4 losses have all come by 5 points or less and 2 were in OT so conceivably their 31-4 record could be better. They are the much better team across the board in this game and we’ll lay it.

ASA play on LA Lakers -3 vs. Chicago Bulls, 8pm ET

We are not huge ‘revenge’ angle bettors but do make an occasional exception when the right situation presents itself. Revenge will never be the driving decision behind a wager but it does play a small role in tonight’s bet. The Lakers and Bulls just met in LA 5 days ago with the Lakers favored by -10.5 points. Chicago rolled the Lakers 146-115 on 58% shooting overall and 46% from Deep. The Bulls are off a successful 4-2 road trip and back home off a win in Denver (no Jokic) on Monday. The Lakers are coming off a last second tip-in win over the Pacers last night and we like them to build on that momentum in the Windy City tonight. Chicago is just 13-22 SU with an average differential of minus -4.5ppg at home and let’s face it, there will be more fans supporting LeBron and Luka tonight than the Bulls.

#627 ASA PLAY ON BYU +5.5 over Alabama, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We think BYU has a very solid chance at winning this game outright and we like the points as a cushion if they do not. The Cougs are on quite a roll winning 11 of their last 12 games with their only loss during that stretch coming at the hands of Houston with impressive wins vs Wisconsin, Arizona, Iowa State, and Kansas (blowout). Since February 1st, BYU is ranked as the 4th best team in the country per Bart Torvik behind only Duke, Houston, and Florida. The Cougars struggle with turnovers offensively when they face aggressive defenses that create havoc. That won’t be the case here as Bama simply doesn’t have a defense that creates turnovers (352nd nationally). If we look at their tourney run (Big 12 and NCAA) the BYU offense has put up 1.23 PPP (vs VCU), 1.28 PPP (vs Wisconsin), and 1.38 PPP (vs Iowa State), all teams that rank in the top 27 in defensive efficiency. Their lone loss in their tourney run was vs Houston who is the best defense in the country (#1 in efficiency) while creating a lot of turnovers (18th nationally). Bama’s defense rates behind all 4 of the BYU’s opponents listed above and since February 1st, the Tide rank outside the top 100 in eFG% defense, 2 point FG% allowed, and defensive rebounding. BYU’s defense isn’t great either so this will come down to who can consistently make shots and mainly 3’s as both rely pretty heavily on arc offense. The fact is, BYU has the better eFG% and 3 point FG% (28th nationally to 116th for Bama). We actually trust BYU’s offense more in this match up as they have a better chance to get hot and stay hot. We mentioned they’ve averaged at least 1.23 PPP in 3 of their last 4 games while Alabama’s offense hasn’t hit 1.20 PPP in any of their last 4 games (SEC and NCAA tourneys). BYU continues to be undervalued as they won outright and covered 5 of the last 6 when tabbed a dog. Let’s take the points here in a game that BYU can absolutely win.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns +5 vs. Boston Celtics, 10:10 pm ET - Have the Suns finally flipped the switch and decided to try and play in the postseason? It sure looks like it with a 5-1 run in their last six games. The Suns have won 4 straight with three quality wins over the Bulls (playing well right now), the Cavaliers and Bucks. In that 5 game stretch the Suns have the 6th best Net Rating in the NBA at +9.1. The Celtics are in the midst of a long 6 game West Coast road trip with 3 straight wins at Utah, Portland and Sacramento. There is a good chance the Celtics sit Tatum tonight with the #2 seed in the East all but locked up. Comparing each teams last 5 games we find very similar numbers with the Celtics 124.9 Offensive Net rating versus the Suns 121.5. The Defensive numbers are also close with the Celtics 112.1 DNR and the Suns at 112.4. The difference is the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule in that 5 game span. The motivated Suns fighting to get into the playoffs will find a way to keep this game close throughout and may even win outright. Grab the points.

ASA play on San Antonio Spurs +10.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - This is a great spot to fade the Pistons and back the Spurs. Detroit is coming off a home win over the Pelicans and have a HUGE game looming against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday. The Pistons will be without Tim Hardaway Jr tonight and could sit Cade Cunningham again, who has a sore calf and could get 5 full days of rest before the playoffs. Detroit is a fun up-and-coming team, but this is a big ask for them to cover double-digits at home in this situation. The Pistons are 16-18-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of 1.0ppg. They are 6-11 ATS as home favorites. San Antonio was heavily overpriced for most of the season with Wemby in the lineup which led to a 14-20 ATS road record. But they were competitive away from home with an average point differential of only -3.3ppg. You may be shocked to know that the Spurs have the best Offensive Net rating over the last 10 games in the NBA. Granted the Pistons have great overall numbers on the season but even looking at that 10-game span for both teams we see the Pistons Net Rating of 5.4 isn’t much better than the Spurs of 0.6. We like the Spurs to keep this game close throughout.

ASA NHL play on Utah Hockey Clubs -1.5 goals +155 vs Detroit Red Wings, 9 pm ET - The Red Wings are straight-up spiraling, just 2 wins in their last 11 games. That’s a one-way ticket to the NHL basement, and their playoff dreams in the East are pretty much toast. They’ve been bouncing around the country on this weird road trip, first getting smoked 4-1 in Washington, then torched 6-3 in Vegas. Detroit’s on the ropes, and their big deadline pickup, Petr Mrazek, ain’t saving the day. Dude stopped just 22 of 26 shots against the Caps—yikes. Flashback to February with Chicago, where he was rocking a brutal 5.11 GAA over four starts. Not exactly inspiring confidence. On the flip side, Utah’s still lurking around the edges of the West playoff race. They’re coming off back-to-back home dubs at the Delta Center, dropping 11 goals total on the Sabres and Lightning. So, here’s the play: take Utah on the puck line. Four of their last five wins were by 2+ goals, and Detroit’s been a mess—dropping 8 of their last 10, with six of those losses by 2 or more. Oh, and the last time these two squared off? Utah took it 4-2 and peppered the Wings with 40 shots to Detroit’s measly 19.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -7.5 over Colorado State, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - We’ve documented the Mountain West teams struggles historically in the NCAA tourney including dogs hitting less than 30% ATS dating back to 2001. The MWC teams are 2-2 SU and ATS so far in this tourney and their historical struggles are not the reason for this play but we mention it. We were on Maryland on Friday when it seemed the whole world was on Grand Canyon. The Terps took care of business winning 81-49 as 10 point favorites. This Maryland team is really good and underrated right now. They are the 2nd highest rated team in the Big 10 per KenPom and that conference is showing their dominance so far in the NCAA tourney. They finished 15-7 in the Big 10 however all 7 of those losses came by 6 points or less so the Terps were really close to having a fantastic conference season. They are 1 of 7 teams in the country that rank in the top 22 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Maryland’s starting 5 is as good as any in the Big 10 and maybe the country with all 5 averaging between 12 & 16 PPG. They don’t turn the ball over (21st in offensive turnover rate) and hit their 3’s at a high level (26th in 3 point FG%). This team is very complete. We appreciate CSU’s 11 game winning streak but they’ve only played 2 NCAA teams during that stretch. They topped MWC foe Utah State, who lost by 25 points in the opening round vs UCLA, and them beat Memphis in round 1. Their win over the Tigers wasn’t surprising as CSU was favored despite being a lower seed. That’s because Memphis was drastically overseeded and playing without one of the top players and point guard Tyrese Hunter (14 PPG). The Tigers were a 5 seed but had 14 teams ranked higher than them in KenPom that received lower seeds to give you an idea of how overrated they were. Maryland has the better offensive and defensive efficiency, better rebounding team, turn the ball over at a lower rate, and shoot the 3 at a higher percentage. We like the Terps to cover and advance.

#824 ASA PLAY ON Houston -5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 8:40 pm et - We were hoping for this match up in the round of 32 but weren’t sure the overhyped Zags would get by Georgia in the first round. We were on UGA in that game and it wasn’t pretty. The Bulldogs got down 27-3 out of the gate, because of some scorching shooting by Gonzaga along with a putrid offensive effort on their part (19% from 3). Zags shot 60% from 3 in the game and averaged 1.25 PPP but now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve seen this season by far (#2 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing 0.87 PPP). The only other top 10 type defense they faced this year was St Mary’s and they lost 2 of those games and averaged only 61 PPG. Thus we don’t expect a repeat offensive performance on Saturday. Houston rolled as well in their first round winning by 38 points so both should be rested. The Cougs played in the much tougher Big 12, went 22-1 (regular season + tourney) and their only loss was in OT to a very good Texas Tech team (3 seed in the Dance). Meanwhile Gonzaga lost 4 games in the weak WCC and 8 games overall, twice as many losses as Houston despite the much easier schedule. Houston was an impressive 14-3 in Quad 1 games this year and if we throw in Quad 2 they were 20-4 overall vs their higher level opponents. Gonzaga was 5-5 vs Quad 1 and 10-8 vs Quad 1 & 2. Where Houston has really improved this year is shooting the ball where they are shooting the 3 at 40% which is 4th best in the nation while the Zags rank outside the top 100 from beyond the arc. The Bulldogs need to score inside (they take very few 3’s) but the problem is Houston’s defense ranks 4th nationally defending inside the arc. We think Gonzaga is getting way too much love and now they face the best team they’ve seen this season by a wide margin. This number is too short. Take Houston.

#783 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma +5.5 over UConn, Friday a 9:25 PM ET - Too many points here for 2 teams we have power rated almost dead even.  UConn is obviously getting respect for their back to back National Championships but this team is nowhere near the caliber of those 2 teams.  This team is ranked 34th per KenPom while those 2 were #1.  The Huskies are solid offensively but their defense simply isn’t very good this year, barely ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency.  The only teams in the Dance that have a worse defensive efficiency than UConn are all seeded 10th or lower.  They were 14-6 in Big East regular season play but 9 of those wins were by 8 points or fewer or in OT.  The Sooners have a very good offense averaging 79 PPG and shooting inside the top 35 nationally both eFG% and 3 point FG%.  They should be able to take advantage of a Connecticut defense that struggles to defend the arc (257th).  They also hit 80% of their FT’s and UConn fouls a lot with 23% of their opponent’s points coming from the stripe (17th most in the country).  On the other end OU defends the arc very well (20th) and they have the better overall defensive efficiency.  Down the stretch the Sooners were playing quite well beating tourney teams Miss State, Georgia. Texas and Missouri.  Their losses down the stretch were all tight losing to Kentucky by 1 point twice and Ole Miss by 3 points.  Oklahoma has covered 7 in a row as a dog winning 4 of those outright.  This will be a battle and we’ll take the points.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -5.5 at Miami Heat, 8pm ET - The Houston Rockets are a solid bet against the struggling Miami Heat tonight in South Beach. Houston is riding an eight-game winning streak, seven by 7+ points, while Miami has dropped nine straight, with six of those losses coming by five or more points. The Rockets’ season-long Net Rating of +4.7 far outpaces the Heat’s -1.9, and the gap widens when looking at the last 10 games—Houston ranks 5th with a +9.0 Net Rating, while Miami sits at 27th with a -9.1. Houston’s elite defense, ranking 4th in field goal percentage allowed and 8th in Defensive Efficiency, should stifle a slumping Heat offense that ranks 21st in FG% overall, 17th in 3PT% and has the worst Efficiency rating in the league over their last 5-games.

#808 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -10 over Grand Canyon, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We’re hearing a lot about the fact that Grand Canyon had some success last year waltzing into the Dance last season and upsetting St Mary’s as a 5 point dog in the round of 64. First of all, GC’s team this year is nowhere near as good as last year’s team. This year they rank 96th per KenPom and last year they were 52nd entering the tourney. This year they rank 151st in offensive efficiency and 69th in defensive efficiency compared to 74th and 32nd respectively last year. The Lopes have faced the 255th strength of schedule which is the 8th easiest in the entire NCAA tournament. They only played one Quad 1 game this year (lost to Georgia) and if we add in Quad 2 they were 1-3 including losses to Arizona State (who finished 4-16 in the Big 12), La Tech, and Utah Valley. Maryland will be BY FAR the best team they’ve faced this season. The Terps rate as the 2nd best team in the Big 10 (per KenPom) behind only MSU and if we dropped Grand Canyon in the Big 10 at their current rating they would rated 2nd to last. The Terps shoot the 3 much better (ranked 27th to 284th for CG) and they turn the ball over far less (23rd in offensive turnover rate compared to 270th for CG). The majority of the Lopes scoring comes inside the arc and at the FT line but the problem here is Maryland defends very well at the rim with two 6’10 players and they rarely send teams to the foul line. The Terps were 15-7 in the Big 10 this year (regular season and tourney) but they were really close to winning the conference as all 7 of their losses came by 6 points or less. This team is undervalued in our opinion as they are 1 of 10 team in the country that rank in the top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Both teams love to play up tempo and the more possessions gives the better team a chance to win by margin. We’ll lay it with Maryland on Friday.

#790 ASA PLAY ON St Mary’s -4 over Vanderbilt, Friday at 3:15 PM ET - St Mary’s will take Vandy out of their comfort zone and slow this game down. The Gaels rank 359th (out of 364 teams) in adjusted tempo and the Commodores rank in the top 65. They like to play fast and STM will get the pace here (much easier to slow down a team rather than speed up a team) and Vanderbilt is not used to that tempo. Every team in the SEC, with the exception of Tennessee, South Carolina, and UGA, like to play fast. When the Dores’ were slowed down, they were 1-2 SU in those games with their lone win coming by 3 points vs South Carolina who finished with a 2-16 conference record. The Gaels should dominate the boards in this game as they are one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (#2 in the nation) vs a Vandy team that ranks just 178th on the defensive glass. The Commodores won only 4 of their final 12 games to squeak into the Dance. They rank 14th out of 16 SEC teams and benefitted from the conference affiliation and really shouldn’t be in the Dance. Their defense has been suspect ranking 278th in eFG% allowed and 337th defending the arc while St Mary’s ranks inside the top 15 in eFG% allowed, defensive efficiency, and 2 point FG% allowed. They are also solid defending the arc (43rd in the nation) vs a Vandy team that struggles to make 3’s (240th in 3 point FG%). Their defense ranks outside the top 300 in both FG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. We like the Gaels in this one.

#758 ASA PLAY ON UCLA -5.5 over Utah State, Thursday at 9:25 PM ET - We’re hearing lots of love for Utah State by the talking heads and we’re not so sure they deserve the 12 vs 5 “upset” tag here. First of all, the Mountain West has been a terrible NCAA tourney conference going 30-63 SU and 29-61-3 ATS their last 93 games in the Big Dance. That includes Tuesday night’s game where San Diego State, the 4th highest rated team in the MWC which is higher than this Utah St team, getting blasted 95-68 by a UNC team that was the final bid to the tourney. As underdogs in the tourney, MWC teams have covered the spread only 27% of the time since 2001, a sample of 55 games. Now to the match up. USU is rated by KenPom as the 5th best team in the conference and while their offense is solid, their defense ranks 151st nationally which is the 4th worst mark in the conference and ahead of only 11 teams in this tournament. UCLA ranks in the top 35 in both offense and defensive efficiency while playing the much more difficult schedule. The Bruins with some extra motivation here after getting blitzed by Wisconsin in the Big 10 tourney as the Badgers made 19 of 32 triples (60%). The Bruins have high level wins over Gonzaga, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Oregon and Arizona among others. USU is 3-6 vs teams ranked inside KenPom’s top 50 and UCLA will be the 2nd highest rated team the Aggies have faced this season. Let’s lay it with UCLA.

#765 ASA PLAY ON Drake +6.5 over Missouri, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET - This is just a flat out bad match up for the Missouri Tigers.  They like to play fast and Drake will slow this game to a crawl.  The Bulldogs are the slowest tempo team in the entire country averaging a shot every 22 seconds which is the slowest mark (per KenPom) in the last decade.  Worse yet, if they miss that shot, their offensive rebounding rate is stellar (17th in the nation), and then the defense has to immediately play another long possession.  Missouri is a very poor defensive rebounding team (300th in the country) and their defense isn’t great (9th in the SEC in defensive efficiency and outside the top 100 nationally since Feb 1st).  The Tigers struggled down the stretch with a 2-5 record their last 7 games and one of those wins came vs South Carolina who finished 2-16 in the SEC.  Drake is in the top 75 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They shoot the ball very well ranking 21st in FG% and 75th in 3 point FG%.  They’ve already shown the can beat the big boys as they topped Vandy (NCAA tourney team) by 11 on a neutral site (outrebounded Vandy by 19) and they also beat a decent Kansas State team on the road.  They’ve won 18 of their last 19 games with their only loss coming by 2 points to a good Bradley team.  We expect very few possessions in this game which will make it very tough for Tigers to win by margin, if they win at all.  Take the points.

#771 ASA PLAY ON Yale +8 over Texas A&M, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - We think A&M has a chance to get upset early in this tourney because they don’t shoot the ball well ranking outside the top 300 in both eFG% and 3 point FG%. The Aggies have the 2nd worst eFG% in the entire NCAA tournament ahead of only Alabama State. They rely very heavily on offensive rebounds (#1 in the country) for 2nd chance scoring opportunities and Yale has a chance to negate that somewhat. The Bulldogs are a big team that ranks 22nd nationally in defensive rebounding. Those numbers might be a bit inflated due to their weaker schedule but they are at the very least a decent rebounding team. Yale is the much better shooting team (41st in eFG% and 9th in 3 point FG%) and they were easily the best team in the Ivy going 15-1 in their 16 games. They not only rebound the ball well they also rank in the top 20 nationally on offensive turnover rate. They gave Purdue trouble in West Lafayette this season losing by 8 (despite making 15 fewer FT’s) in one of the tougher places to play in the country. This team, with many of the same players, beat Auburn last year in the opening round of the NCAA so they have the pedigree to keep this close and have a shot to pull off the upset. If this is tight late, as we expect, FT’s could be key and the Aggies hit less than 70% as a team. Yale coach James Jones is excellent leading this team to 20+ wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons and he’ll have them very well prepared as they were last year in round 1. Take the points.