#382 ASA TOP PLAY ON South Carolina -13 over Missouri, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET - South Carolina is playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now with 3 straight wins all by at least 21 points. Two weeks ago at home they rolled Texas A&M 44-20 putting up 530 yards on one of the better defenses in the country. Last week was a prime letdown spot for the Gamecocks traveling to Vandy off their big A&M win. SC dominated again 28-7 outgaining the Commodores by 175 yards. That’s a Vandy team that beat Bama, nearly beat Texas (lost by 3), and took this Missouri team to OT on the road before losing by 3. On top of that, South Carolina could easily have wins over LSU (lost by 3 on a late LSU TD) and Alabama (lost by 2 @ Bama but outgained the Tide). The only team that really outplayed the Gamecocks was Ole Miss who just beat Georgia by 18 points. Missouri is the opposite situation. They have a good record (7-2) but could easily have a few more losses. They’ve had a few things go their way beating Auburn late by 4, beating Vandy in OT, and beating a way down Oklahoma team last week on a fumble return TD with 30 seconds left in the game. Their offense has really struggled (97th in YPP) and will most likely be without starting QB Cook who has a bad ankle and a hand injury. Even if he plays he’s not at 100%. His back up Pyne is not good to say the least. Facing one of the best defensive teams in the nation will make it really tough on this already below average offense. SC’s defense has allowed less than 10 points in FIVE games already this season and we wouldn’t be surprised if they do the same to Mizzou here. Comparable opponents results aren’t even close. SC beat A&M by 24, Missouri lost to A&M by 31. SC beat Vandy by 21 on the road and Mizzou topped Vandy in OT by 3 at home. SC beat Oklahoma by 29 on the road and Missouri just beat OU by 7 at home on a fumble recovery as mentioned above. SC lost @ Bama by 2, Missouri last at Bama by 34. You get the point. This one should be an easy win at home for the Gamecocks.

#397 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +2.5 over Illinois, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - We think MSU is the better team despite records (Illinois is 6-3 & MSU is 4-5) so we’ll grab the points.  MSU has a better YPP margin (+0.1 to -0.1) and YPG margin (+22 to -10) despite playing the tougher schedule (12th SOS for MSU & 45th for Illinois).  Sparty is 4-5 on the season and they have plenty of motivation needing to win 2 of their last 3 games to be bowl eligible.  3 of their 5 losses have come vs OSU, Oregon, and Indiana who have a combined record of 28-1.  Both are coming off a bye week but we give MSU the advantage in that spot giving the coaching edge to the Spartans Jonathan Smith.  When Michigan State came off their first bye week back in early October, they rolled over a good Iowa team 32-20 and outgained them by almost 200 yards.  When Illinois came off their first bye week in early October, they needed OT at home to get by a terrible Purdue team.  The Illini have fallen off drastically since their 4-0 start going 2-3 their last 5 games and lucky to have those 2 wins to be honest.  They beat an average Michigan team at home but needed 3 Wolverine turnovers (0 for Illinois) to do so as they were outplayed in the stat sheet in that game.  They also nearly lost to Purdue, as we mentioned above, winning 50-49 in OT at HOME.  The Boilers actually ran 17 fewer offensive snaps in that game but outgained the Illini on a YPP basis.  That’s the same Purdue team that has already lost 6 games this season by 17 points or more.  We like the Spartans to win this one so we’ll take the points.

ASA top play on Washington Wizards +9.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - The Wizards are 2-8 SU this season and the two wins have come against this Hawks team back in October. Washington matches up well with the Hawks and can stay within this margin for the third time this season. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS at home this season as a favorite, 1-6 ATS overall with a negative point differential of minus -5.4ppg. We don’t think a team with these credentials should be laying nearly double-digits against anyone in the league. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league with the Hawks allowing 1.182-points per possession while the Wiz give up 1.197PPP. Washington should have success from beyond the arc with the 11th best 3PT% in the NBA going up against a Hawks defense that ranks 28th in 3PT% against. Atlanta is coming off a huge road win in Boston and could suffer a hangover effect here. Washington has lost four straight on this current road trip but three of those teams were better than Atlanta. We like the dog here and the points.

#858 ASA PLAY ON Furman -3.5 over Tulane, Friday at 7 PM ET - Head coach Bob Richey has built a very solid program at Furman in his 7 years at the helm. The Paladins have won at least 20 games in 5 of his 7 seasons and he’s never had a losing season. This year he has some continuity with 53% of his minutes returning and 4 of the 5 starters are returning players from last season. Furman is 3-0 on the season topping 2 teams ranked in the top 200 including a win @ Belmont one of the better mid major programs in the country. Tulane, on the other hand, hasn’t played a team ranked in the top 300 this season. They are 3-0 playing all home games topping Louisiana Christian, UL Monroe (ranked 328th) and Alcorn State (ranked 355th). This is a huge step up on competition for the Green Wave and on the road for the first time. On the other hand, Furman has already played and beaten 2 teams that are in the same range (power rating) as Tulane. The Green Wave only have 9% of their minutes back from last year and only 1 starter this year that played any type of role on last year’s team and he was a limited reserve in 2023. This is head coach Ron Hunter’s 6th year at Tulane and he has had only 1 winning season. Furman is a tough place to play as the Paladins have won 29 of their last 34 home games. Tulane has been a terrible road team with a 16-44 SU on the road since start of the 2019 season. This number is light in our opinion and we’ll take Furman to win and cover at home Friday night.

ASA play on Washington Commanders +4 at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Commanders here as they are coming off a loss, while the Eagles are coming off a big rivalry win in Dallas. Even though the Cowboys are down this season, that is still one of, if not the biggest game on Philly schedule. There is no shame in the Commanders loss to the red hot Steelers who have now won 4 straight games. Washington has the 6th best yards per play differential in the NFL at +0.5. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in YPPD at +0.9. Last year in the two meetings the Eagles won by 3 in OT and by 7-points in Washington. The combined Total Yards produced by the Eagles was 789 yards, the Commanders put up 837 yards. In terms of yards per play, the Eagles averaged 6.0YPP, the Commanders averaged 5.9YPP.  These two teams rate near even when it comes to overall DVOA statistics, so given the circumstances we will grab whatever points are available with the underdog. Washington is 5-1-2 ATS the last eight meetings with Philadelphia.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks will more than likely be short-handed again tonight with Damian Lillard in concussion protocol which opens the door for this fisty Pistons team. Milwaukee is 3-8 SU and actually looking up at the 5-7 Pistons in the Central Division standings and the reality is the Pistons have been the better team to this point. Detroit rates slightly low than the Bucks in Offensive Efficiency but rate ahead of them defensively. The Pistons overall Efficiency differential is -2.2 compared to the Bucks at -3.4. Detroit also has the better overall average point differential and holds a key advantage in this matchup with the 2nd best rebound rate (52.6%) going up against the Bucks 20th ranked rebound rate (49.3%). Going back to the start of last season the Bucks are 9-17 ATS against the Central Division with a negative points differential of minus -0.5ppg. Milwaukee hasn’t been great when playing without rest either at 7-9 ATS their last sixteen. Detroit is 7-1 ATS as a dog this season and undervalued by the Books. Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS as a chalk this season. We will grab the Dog and points in this one.

#697 ASA PLAY ON Wyoming +22.5 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Tech is 2-0 on the season playing 2 teams ranked outside the top 280 winning both games easily. In their most recent game they faced a Northwestern State team ranked outside the top 300 and won by “just” 21 points despite hitting over 51% of their shots and making 22 FT’s with their opponent making only 37% and just 13 FT’s. The Red Raiders largest lead in that game was 23 points and now they are laying that number (-22.5 to -23.5 range) vs a Wyoming team is far superior to Tech’s first 2 opponents. Tech has hit a ridiculous 63.3 eFG% in their first 2 games vs 2 poor defensive teams and that should change on Wednesday. Wyoming has been very good defensively in their first 2 games allowing an eFG% of just 39%. New Cowboy head coach Sundance Wicks was a UWGB last year and they were very good defensively ranking 111th in eFG% allowed along with ranking in the top 15 in 3 point FG% defense. Wicks is an outstanding coach as he took a Green Bay team that was 3-29 and led them to a winning record in his only season at the helm before coming back to lead his alma mater. He was named the Joe B. Hall National coach of the year for is efforts last season. Wyoming is a veteran team that starts 5 seniors and they have solid shooters on the outside (hitting 50% of their 3’s this year) and the size inside to hang around in this game. Too many points here and we’ll side with Wyoming.

#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio -10 over Eastern Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 have similar records (Ohio 6-3 & EMU 5-4) but the key stats aren’t even close. EMU is extremely fortunate to have a winning record right now. They could easily be sitting with 2 or 3 wins on the season rather than 5. The Eagles have a negative point differential in conference play and on the season this team has a YPP margin of -1.3, a YPR margin of -1.1, and a yards per pass attempt margin of -1.8. Those are the stats of a team that is well below .500. They’ve been fortunate in the turnover category ranking in the top 25 nationally in turnover margin. Ohio is 4-1 in MAC play with a point differential of +84 which is the best in conference play. They’ve allowed the least points in conference play (61) while scoring the 2nd most in MAC games (165). The Bobcats are 4-0 at home winning by an average of +18 PPG. When comparing the key stats we spoke about above for EMU, the Bobcats are +1.0 YPP, +1.8 YPR, and +0.4 yards per pass attempt. They are rolling right now as well, winning 4 of their last 5 game with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Miami OH who is playing as well as anyone in the MAC right now. 3 of Ohio’s 4 wins during that stretch have come by at least 20 points and their 1 close win they led CMU 24-0 in the 3rd quarter and took their foot off the gas and won 27-25. They learned from that mistake and have stayed aggressive with a lead winning their last 2 games by a combined score of 88-16. EMU has played only 2 road games in conference play this year vs Kent and Akron, the 2 worst teams in the MAC, who have a combined record of 2-16. They beat Kent, who is 0-9 on the season, but lost @ Akron. Now they face one of the top teams in the MAC and we expect Ohio to control this game from start to finish. Lay it.

#633 ASA PLAY ON Texas State +15.5 over TCU, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - TCU returns only 8% of their minutes from last season as they are adjusting to a completely new line up made up of mainly transfers. The Horned Frogs start 4 new transfers and their top 5 scorers after 2 games are all transfers. Their key newcomers have come from programs like UW Green Bay, Wyoming, Old Dominion, and UNC Wilmington so while all solid players, we’re not talking about high level additions from other Power 5 teams. The influx of new players can make it tough early in the season as they adjust to playing with different teammates, especially tough trying to cover big numbers. Both of TCU’s opponents have been ranked outside the top 220 and in their most recent game the struggled a bit with Florida Gulf Coast (ranked 222nd) in a game that was a one possession game midway through the 2nd half. The Frogs pulled away late and won by 17 which landed right on the number (-17). Now they face a Texas State team that is ranked nearly 100 spots higher than FGCU but the number is close to the same (-15.5). Texas State returns 60% of their minutes (4 of 5 starters played for this team last season) from a team that struggled early last year but played really well down the stretch winning 10 of their last 14 games almost topping James Madison (lost by 5) in the Sun Belt Championship game (JMU beat Wisconsin in the 1st round of the NCAA tourney). The Bobcats have carried that momentum into this season with 2 easy wins and this is a huge game for them vs an in-state big boy. We wouldn’t be surprised if TCU is peaking ahead to their huge game vs Michigan on Friday. Texas State keeps this fairly close. Take the points.

ASA play on Atlanta Hawks +15.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:10 PM ET - We successfully bet on the Celtics favored by 10-points in Atlanta a few weeks ago, a 123-93 Boston win. Today we flip and back the Hawks plus the points. Boston had an axe to grind in the first meeting as the Hawks won 2 games against them late last season. Now the C’s are coming off a big road win in Milwaukee, laying a huge number against a team that they recently beat by 30 points. Last season the four meetings between these two teams were all decided by 10-points or less with Atlanta winning two of them. The Hawks have been off since November 9th and should be fresh for tonight’s game. Despite a 4-7 SU record the Hawks have a -5.5-points per game differential and only two of their losses have come by more than this point spread. Boston had an average +/- at home last season of +14.4ppg, which has dipped to +8.8ppg this season. The Hawks had the worst spread record in the Division last season at 4-15 ATS BUT they had a positive point differential of +0.3ppg. The Celtics were 10-6-3 ATS in Division play with a positive differential of +11.3ppg. Boston has a below average FG% at 45% while the Hawks are slightly above average at 46.4%. We like Atlanta to hang within double-digits tonight.

#286 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams -2.5 over Miami Dolphins, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Rough spot for the Fins after nearly upsetting Buffalo on the road last week, they take to the air again in a cross country trip to LA. This is Miami’s 4th road game in their last 5 contests. They did get QB Tagovailoa back in the line up 2 games ago but they lost both of those contests and now might be without top WR Hill on Monday due to a wrist injury. Miami is just 2-6 with a -63 point differential which is the 6th worst in the NFL. And that’s despite playing the 24th most difficult strength of schedule to date. Defensively the Dolphins have solid overall numbers but they are trending down as of late allowing 58 points the last 2 weeks on 5.9 YPP in losses to Arizona & Buffalo. The Rams offense is back at full strength with WR’s Cupp and Nacua back in the line up together. With those 2 threats back on the field, LA has scored 56 points the last 2 weeks and veteran QB Stafford has thrown for almost 600 yards and 6 TD’s. The Rams sit at 4-4 and they’ve played the 3rd most difficult strength of schedule which is a big difference when comparing that to Miami. We’re getting a coaching edge here as well with McVay over McDaniel. The Rams are in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC while the Fins have pretty much played themselves out of it in the AFC. Miami has covered just once the last 8 times they’ve been tabbed an underdog and we think they add another ATS “L” to the ledger here. Lay the small number and take the Rams.

ASA play on Charlotte Hornets +5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - We are not sure the 76ers should be this big of a favorite against any team in the NBA right now. Philly is 1-7 SU on the season with a negative scoring differential of minus -8.8ppg. The Sixers rank 25th in Offensive Efficiency rating scoring just 1.092-points per possession. Defensively it’s worse as they allow 1.182PPP which ranks 26th. In comparison, the Hornets rank 18th in DEFF allowing 1.151PPP and 12th in OEFF at 1.120PPP. Charlotte has been very competitive this season with a negative point differential of minus -3.1ppg. The Hornets are coming off two straight home wins and should be much fresher than a Sixers team coming off a 3-game West coast road trip. The injury riddled 76ers have yet to win a home game so grab the points with Charlotte in what should be a competitive game down to the wire.

#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We’ll be the first to admit, we thought the change in Pittsburgh from QB Fields to Wilson was a mistake, but clearly not. The Steelers offense has put up 37 and 26 points with Wilson under center with 832 total yards at 6.6 Yards Per Play. It’s a small sample size, but those numbers would be the 2nd best in the league behind only Baltimore. The Steelers offense is averaging 138 rushing yards per game (8th) and should put up big numbers against a Commander's defense that ranks 29th in RYPG allowed at 143. With the running game established, Wilson and the Steelers passing attack can exploit a Washington D that allows the 24th highest completion percentage in the NFL and gives up 6.8 yards per attempt. The Commanders QB Daniels is special, and this offense has excelled this season, but the Steelers/Tomlin defense will be up for the task. Pittsburgh clearly has a scheme in place to slow Daniels as they have to play Lamar Jackson and the Ravens twice a year. Last season the Steelers D held the Ravens to 10 points twice. This will easily be the best defense the Commanders have faced this season with every opponent ranking lower than the Steelers in Yards Per Play and Total Defense. In the last 10 years the Steelers are one of the best in the NFL as an underdog with a 43-24-1 ATS record. They are also 8-4 ATS since 2020 when playing with a rest advantage. We like the Steelers to win this game outright.

#273 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -6.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The 49ers are a disappointing 4-4 SU on the season but have dealt with numerous injuries to key personnel. They are coming off a bye-week and are getting healthy for the final stretch of the regular season. There are even rumors RB McCaffrey may return for this game. Either way, we like the Niners to roll here. Despite a .500 record the 49ers are 5th in the current DVOA rankings, 7th in offense and 5th in defense. San Francisco averages 6.5 Yards Per Play (2nd) and gives up just 5.3YPP (12th). SF is a modest 15-13 ATS as a road chalk since 2020 but they’ve won those games by an average of +7.7ppg. On that note, the Bucs are 3-6 ATS their last nine as a home dog with a negative differential of minus -1.4ppg. As for Tampa Bay, they are in a horrible scheduling situation having just played in Kansas City in a big game on Monday Night Football. TB has not had a bye this season and are dealing with a depleted roster with their two best WR’s on the sideline. Tampa Bay is 30th in the NFL in Yards Per Game allowed and 26th in YPP given up at 6.0. They give up the 19th most rushing YPG and 30th most passing YPG. Offensively the Bucs will want to run the football, but the 49ers allow 105 rushing yards per game (6th) and just 4.3 yards per attempt (9th). Tampa Bay has already been beaten 3 times on this field this season and we expect the Niners to hand them #4.

#170 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +3 over Army, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Army is 8-0 on the season but they’ve played the 132nd strength of schedule out of 134 teams. The teams they’ve faced this season have a combined record of 10-35 SU vs FBS opponents and none of those teams currently have a .500 or better record. Last week Army struggled with an Air Force team that is 0-7 this year vs FBS opponents and the Cadets had just 250 total yards on 5.0 YPP. That was vs an AF defense that was giving up 410 YPG on 6.5 YPP entering that contest. Army played without their starting QB Daily in that game and there is an obvious huge drop off if he doesn’t play. He was seen in a walking boot this week and hasn’t practiced although head coach Jeff Monken said he is questionable. Even if he does get the nod, he won’t be 100% with a bad foot and that’s not ideal for a running QB. On defense, Army is facing a UNT attack that is averaging 41 PPG (6th in the nation) and ranks 3rd in the country in total offense (528 YPG). The Cadets haven’t seen an offense anywhere near this level as all 8 teams they’ve faced rank 65th or lower in total offense. UNT has played the much tougher schedule and they sit at 5-3 on the season. The Mean Green have lost 2 straight games and are coming off a bye in a must win spot. The extra week is perfect timing preparing for a unique Army offense. In those back to back losses, North Texas faced 2 of the top teams in the AAC (Tulane & Memphis) and lost 1 game in each but outgained both of those really solid opponents. As we mentioned Army is in a letdown spot off rival Air Force and the Cadets next game is vs Notre Dame. We like North Texas to win this game outright on Saturday at home giving Army their first loss of the season.

#140 ASA PLAY ON James Madison -14.5 over Georgia State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is simply one of the best situational spots of the season. JMU is at home off a bye week and they are facing a Georgia State team that is playing their 4th straight road game in 4 weeks. On top of that, they have to be demoralized losing 5 straight games and now most likely out of gas for this game. Speaking of the situation, since 2019 there have been 7 instances of a team playing their 4th straight road game vs a team coming off a bye and the rested team is a perfect 7-0 ATS. Georgia State’s offense will struggle here vs a James Madison defense that ranks in the top 15 nationally in YPP allowed (4.7) and points allowed (17 PPG). The Dukes defense has held half of their opponents (4) to less than 10 points. Offensively, JMU averages over 400 YPG and they’ve scored at least 30 points in 5 of their 8 games this year. They are capable of putting up huge numbers on offense as they have already this season scoring 70 points @ North Carolina and 63 points at home vs Ball State. They are facing a Georgia State defense that has to be tired and is allowing 31 PPG on the season. The Panther defense has allowed more than 30 points in 5 of their last 6 games and now facing a rested and prepared James Madison offense. GSU’s average margin of their 6 losses this year is 12.5 points and now with the terrible situation factored in. All of JMU’s wins (vs FBS) have come by at least 17 points. This smells like a potential blowout.

#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas +2.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Great situational spot for KU here. The Jayhawks are playing their best FB of the season and coming off a bye. Meanwhile they catch ISU off their first loss of the season and to be perfectly honest, the Cyclones haven’t played well over the last few weeks. They’ve been playing with fire and it caught up to them last week in a home loss vs a pretty average Texas Tech team. ISU’s offense was only able to generate 22 points (they lost 23-22) vs a Tech defense that had allowed the most points in the Big 12 entering last week. The previous Saturday, Iowa State needed a late surge at home to beat another pretty average team, UCF. The Cyclones scored a TD with 30 seconds remaining in that one to pick up the 38-35 wins. UCF ran for over 350 yards in that game and that is a big concern here as well. KU is a very good running team, with a mobile QB (17th nationally in rushing) and Iowa State’s defense simply hasn’t been good containing the run this year ranking 93rd in rush defense and 110th in YPC allowed. Kansas is playing really well right now and they very well coached with 2 full weeks to get ready for this game. KU nearly upset a very good KSU team on the road in their most recent game. The Jayhawks ran for 5.6 YPC in that 29-27 loss vs a very good Wildcat rush defense. The Cats scored a TD with less than 2:00 minutes remaining int the game to get that home win. All of KSU’s other home wins have been blowouts. A week prior to that tight loss, KU rolled a Houston team that is playing very well right now. They beat the Cougars 42-14 which is Houston’s only loss since late September. Houston’s wins as of late include Kansas State, Utah, and TCU. We like the value here as KU was +2.5 @ Iowa State last year and now getting the same number at home (game will be played @ Arrowhead Stadium in KC). ISU gets knocked off for the 2nd straight week. Take Kansas.

#120 ASA PLAY ON UCLA +6.5 over Iowa, Friday at 9 PM ET - This is a letdown spot for the Hawkeyes traveling to the west coast for the first time this season after rolling up a big win over archrival Wisconsin.  The Hawkeyes have been great at home but on the road they are just 1-2 in Big 10 play.  They are traveling on a short week to face a UCLA team that is trending upward right now.  The Bruins are off back to back wins, both on the road, beating Rutgers and Nebraska.  Last week’s 27-20 win over the Huskers was actually closer than it should have been.  UCLA outgained Nebraska by 2.0 YPP and had more overall yardage despite running 17 fewer offensive snaps.  Even prior to those back to back wins, this team was playing well losing a tight game vs Minnesota 21-17, a game UCLA led pretty much throughout and they played Penn State tough on the road before that losing 27-11.  They’ve outgained each of their last 3 opponents and the Bruins simply to be undervalued with a 5-0-1 ATS record their last 6 games and now getting nearly a full TD at home in this one.  Iowa switched QB’s last week going with back up Sullivan and he will get another start here.  He didn’t have to do much attempting only 10 passes the entire game as Iowa was able to get whatever they wanted on the ground vs the Badgers.  Now they are facing a UCLA defense that is very good vs the run ranking 12th nationally allowing 100 YPG rushing on just 3.3 YPC.  Iowa will have to have some success through the air here and we’re not sure they can get it done in that regard (they rank dead last in Big 10 play averaging only 112 YPG through the air).  Iowa’s offensive numbers drop off drastically on the road where they average just 19 PPG (35 PPG at home) and only 281 YPG (374 YPG at home).  Upset alert here as UCLA will give the Hawkeyes all they can handle on Friday Night.

ASA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors – 7:40 PM ET - We just played -6-points with the Celtics at home over the Warriors and lost but will come right back here with a play against them in Cleveland. It’s too early to say, but this Cavs unit might be the best team Cleveland has ever put on the court. Cleveland has the 2nd highest scoring differential in the NBA at +12.7PPG and are winning at home by +12.3PPG. Golden State has an average +/- of +15.9PPG overall for the season. The Warriors though have played a very soft schedule and only two of their wins have come against a team with a above .500 record, the Rockets at 4-3 and most recently the Celtics. Golden State’s other 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 15-29 SU record. Cleveland has faced a very tough schedule to date with wins over the Knicks, Lakers, Magic and Bucks twice. The line value is obvious here and the bet is Cleveland minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -7 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Houston, we have a problem! The Bucks look and play like a team in complete disarray. There is a power struggle going on in Milwaukee with Doc Rivers and the front office as he wants full control, and they aren’t going to let that happen. In the 2022-23 season the Bucks were 4th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.119-points per possession. Last season they slipped to 19th in DEFF allowing 1.184PPP. This season they rank 21st allowing 1.173PPP. At least they have their offensive to rely on. Not really, the Bucks are 22nd in OEFF at 1.009-points per possession. The Knicks are adjusting to a major roster shift with the addition of Karl Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges and have underachieved with a 3-4 start. NY ranks 4th in OEFF and 20th in DEFF but you know this defense will improve under coach Thibodeau. The Bucks are coming off a game on Thursday against Utah and the Knicks are rested. New York has only played two home games this season so you can bet the home crowd will be extra energized. The Knicks were 33-17 SU at home last season with an average +/- of +5.8PPG. The Bucks were 19-29 SU on the road last season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG.

#110 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -5.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bengals have a losing record currently at 4-5 despite playing the 2nd easiest strength of schedule in the NFL.  They haven’t beaten a team that is currently above .500 and their 4 wins have come vs teams that have a combined 8 wins (Carolina, NYG, Las Vegas, and Cleveland).  Cincy played a little better offensively last week putting up 41 points on a bad Raiders team, but only averaged 5.3 YPP so that was a bit misleading.  In their 3 games prior to that this offense wasn’t playing great to say the least.  In that 3 game stretch prior to LV (vs Eagles, Browns, and Giants), the Bengals averaged just 18 PPG on 269 YPG.  Now they have some key injuries on that side of the ball with WR Higgins still doubtful, RB Moss out, and TE All now out for the season.  We’re not sure they can keep up with this Ravens offense that has scored at least 40 points in 3 of their last 5 games.  Last week they hosted a Denver defense that led the NFL allowing just 4.4 YPP and Baltimore put up 7.3 YPP vs that stop unit and 41 points.  Baltimore also added WR Diontae Johnson to their arsenal this week in a trade with the Panthers.  The Birds are the only team in the NFL averaging over 7.0 YPP on the season and in their first meeting with Cincinnati on the road, they put up 41 points on 6.8 YPP.  The Bengals were playing at the top of their game offensively at that point of the season and still lost 41-38 at home.  Over their last 15 home wins, since 2022, the Ravens have won those games by an average of +16 PPG.  Cincy simply isn’t playing at that level on offense right now and on the road, short week, we just don’t see them staying within a TD here.  Lay it. 

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4 at San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Blazers will be one of the bottom teams in the NBA again this season but today they are in a great spot to get a ‘W’ over the Spurs. San Antonio is coming off a game last night in Houston and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. It’s also their 4th game in six days so fatigue becomes a factor. Portland meanwhile is rested having last played on November 4th in New Orleans. The Blazers won that game 118-100, shooting 55% overall and finishing the game with +8 rebounds. Portland looked good in the game before that, in a 6-point loss in Phoenix. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in EFG% with the Spurs ranking 22nd, the Blazers are 29th. These teams are near identical in Defensive Efficiency on the season but in their last 3 games the Blazers have been significantly better. San Antonio is 3-11 SU their last fourteen games when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of minus -11.4PPG. Portland has the best cover rate in the NBA since the start of last season at 71.4% when playing with 2-3 days rest. Easy call here to grab the points with the Blazers.

ASA top play on Phoenix Suns -5 vs. Miami Heat – 9 PM ET - We love the spot for the Suns at home against a Heat team who continues to underachieve. Miami is 3-3 SU this season, but their wins have come against the Wizards, Pistons and Hornets. They have lost to the three quality teams they’ve faced, the Kings, Knicks and Magic…all at home. Now they go on the road to face a Suns team that is a legitimate contender in the Western Conference. The Suns have faced a tough schedule to start the season and currently sit 6-1 SU. Despite facing good competition, the Suns have an average +/- of +3.7PPG overall and are +6PPG at home. Phoenix is 9th in Offensive Efficiency, 10th in Defensive Efficiency. In comparison, the Heat rank 14th in DEFF and 22nd in OEFF, again against a weak schedule. Miami is shooting just 43.3% on the season (25th) and will have a tough time making shots against this Suns team that is 4th in the league in FG% defense. Phoenix will also have an advantage offensively with the 5th best 3PT% going against the Heat’s 11th ranked 3PT% defense. Phoenix won both meetings a year ago and have gotten better this season while the Heat have gotten worse. Lay it with the Suns.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -7 vs. Golden State Warriors – 7:30 PM ET - We are curious to see if Jayson Tatum has anything special planned for the Warriors and head coach Steve Kerr. There is some mystery surrounding Tatum’s lack of playing time in the Olympics and he could take it out on Kerr tonight. Boston had the 3rd highest scoring differential in the NBA at +14PPG and are winning at home by +17PPG. Golden State has an average +/- of +17.3PPG overall for the season. The Warriors though have played a very soft schedule and only one of their wins has come against a team with an above .500 record, the Rockets at 4-3. Golden State’s other 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 15-29 SU record. Boston has at least two quality wins on their resume, and both were by double-digits at home over the Bucks and Knicks. Last season when the Celtics hosted the Warriors, they blew them out of the building with a 140-88 win.

ASA play on LA Clippers -3.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 10:30 PM ET - This is a "get right" spot for the Clippers who come into this game off 3 straight losses. The Clippers currently rank 9th in Defensive Efficiency and 21st in Offensive Efficiency. The Spurs rank 29th in OEFF and 4th in DEFF. The Clippers though have faced the tougher schedule of the two teams but have comparable statistics. With these two teams relatively close defensively, we like the Clippers offense to outscore the Spurs offense. The Clippers EFG% is 16th in the NBA at 53.1%. The Spurs EFG% is 25th worst in the league at 50.1%. Los Angeles has won 8 of the last 10 meetings and 7 straight. Last year the Clippers won all three meetings by 7, 25 and 40-points. More money and tickets have come in on the Spurs, yet the line has moved in the opposite direction which tells us the Clippers are the play.

ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Bucs +9.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - KC has won 13 straight games dating back to last season but only 3 of those have come by more than 8 points and their average YPG margin during that stretch is just +45. They are the king of winning close games and with this line sitting near double digits, we are on Tampa. The Bucs are 4-4 on the season yet they have a point differential of +22 and a YPP differential of +0.1. KC is undefeated yet their point differential is just +50 and their YPP differential is pretty comparable to TB at +0.3. KC’s offense has been pretty average this season (17th in YPP) which is why they haven’t been pulling away from teams. Mahomes ranks just 24th in QBR and he doesn’t have many high level weapons at his disposal this year. They are already missing RB Pacheco and WR’s Rice, Brown, Moore and now Shuster is most likely out for this game. Tampa has their offensive injury problems as well but they still put up 26 points on 432 yards last week vs Atlanta with their key WR’s out. The Bucs can score (4th in the NFL at 29.4 PPG) and they know how to keep drives alive with a 52.5% third down conversion rate (1st in the NFL). KC’s offense hasn’t topped 28 points the entire season and facing a team that can score will make it tough for them to win this one by double digits. Windy conditions are expected in KC Monday night which may favor the better running team. TB averages 5.1 YPC this season (6th) while KC is averaging only 3.9 YPC (29th). We’ll call for the Bucs to keep this one close. Take the points.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -9.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:45 PM ET - The Hawks aren’t in a good scheduling situation here having played last night in New Orleans. The Hawks won that game 126-111 after shooting 58%, well above expectations. Atlanta lacks depth and only 8 players saw time last night. Boston is coming off a pair of double-digit wins in Charlotte and currently own an average +/- of plus 11.7PPG. Last season this Celtics team had a plus/minus of +10.7PPG for the season. The Celtics have not forgotten two late season losses to this Hawks team by 2-points in regulation and by 1-point in OT and will be focused tonight. Last season when the Celtics had a rest advantage over their opponent, they were 17-13-1 ATS and won those games by an average of +14.5PPG. Atlanta was 5-10 ATS last season when playing without rest. Atlanta’s lack of depth right now and having to play their 3rd game in four nights is a bad recipe for success against a motivated Boston team. Lay it.

#476 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -7 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Eagles are rolling on both sides of the ball right now winning 4 of their last 5 games.  They’ve outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents by YPP margins of +3.0, +2.9, +1.9, and +1.4.  That’s impressive.  Last week they dominated a solid Cincinnati team on the road 37-17 outgaining them 397 to 280.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Eagles have outscored their opponents 63-20.  Not only is their offense trending up, the Philly defense has played lights out over the last month or so.  They have not allowed more than 17 points since September and over their last 3 games the Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 3.9 YPP.  They’ve done this while mainly playing on the road.  4 of their last 5 games have come away from home and they’ve played only 1 home game since mid September.  The Jags are in a really rough spot here.  This will be their 9th straight game with no bye, they were in London for 2 weeks, came home and lost to GB on a last second FG, and now off to Philadelphia.  On top of that, Jacksonville is really banged up right now especially on offense.  Their top 3 WR’s may miss this one (Thomas, Kirk, and Davis) and there is a good chance that 2 of their starting Oline will be out as well.  On top of that, they just traded their best offensive lineman, LT Robinson, to the Vikings this week.  Has this team waved the white flag?  We think they will struggle offensively vs this surging Eagle defense.  On the other side of the ball, Philly is averaging over 6.0 YPP their last 3 games and facing a Jags defense that ranks in the bottom 5 in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring defense with Jacksonville allowing a TD 30.6% of opponent possessions, 31st in the league.  This smells like a potential blowout for the Eagles.  Lay it.

ASA play on Washington Wizards +9.5 vs Miami Heat, 9:40 PM ET - The Wizards have gotten off to a 2-2 start with the two losses coming against the Celtics and Cavaliers who are currently the two best teams in the East. Washington’s two wins have come against the Atlanta Hawks who we grade slightly lower than this Heat team. Miami is also 2-2 SU with wins against the Pistons and Hornets, losses to the Knicks and Magic. The Wiz rate slightly lower than the Heat in Net Rating at -4.6 compared to -3.1. Miami was 8-6-2 ATS as a road chalk last season but their average +/- in those games was just +4.3PPG which clearly isn’t enough to cover this spread. Washington is going to push the tempo in this game and Miami is not shooting it well with an EFG% of 52.1% which is 21st in the NBA. We are not sold Miami is invested yet in this season. Take the Dog here.

#366 ASA TOP PLAY ON SMU -7 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Fishy line here with SMU favored by a full TD over an undefeated Pitt team. The Panthers, despite being undefeated, are trending down in our opinion. Their offense simply hasn’t played well for the last 6 straight quarters. A few weeks ago they faced Cal in a perfect spot for Pitt at home and struggled to win that game 17-15 (we were on Pitt in that game). They didn’t score a single point in the 2nd half of that game and were held to less than 100 yards after halftime. Last week, coming off a bye, if you simply looked at the final score you would think Pitt was back in stride offensively scoring 41 points vs Syracuse. Not so fast. 21 of their 41 points came on 3 interception returns for TD’s by the Panthers. The fact is, they had only 217 total yards and were held to less than 5.0 YPP in that win. Now they go on the road for just the 2nd time since September 7th to face the best team they’ve seen this season. SMU is 7-1 on the year and playing really well right now. Their only loss was by 3 points vs BYU who stands at 8-0. Last week it looks like they squeaked by @ Duke winning 28-27 but the Mustangs dominated the stats (+1.2 YPP margin). SMU had a horrible -6 turnover margin in last week’s game @ Duke and still won on the road which is extremely impressive. The Stangs are coming off a 3-0, 3 game road trip and are back at home for the first time since September. They have scored an average of 50 PPG over their last 10 home games which dates back to the start of last season. SMU starting QB Jennings was a question mark early in the week but it looks like he’ll be a full go on Saturday. We like SMU by more than a TD in this one.

#390 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +3.5 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Perfect situational spot for a very good South Carolina team. The Gamecocks are off a bye and catching A&M the week after a huge home win over LSU. The Aggies have been getting very comfortable at home having played only 1 road game since mid September. That road game was vs Mississippi State, the worst team in the SEC, and even though the Aggies won by 10, they were outgained by the Bulldogs in that game. In fact, despite their perfect 5-0 SEC record, A&M has been outgained in 3 of their last 4 games. The Gamecocks are 4-3 on the season but could easily be 7-1. They had two tight, down to the wire losses vs high level opponents, Alabama & LSU, losing those games by a combined 5 points. SC outgained Alabama on the road but missed a 2 point conversion with under a minute to go which would have tied the game. They led LSU with just over a minute to go before the Tigers scored the game winning TD. Just a few plays go different in those games and South Carolina is sitting at 7-1. What’s the line here if that’s the case? SC favored for sure. Carolina has played the 3rd toughest schedule in the nation yet their YPP & YPG differential is very similar to A&M’s who’s played an easier slate. We have this game power rated at right around a pick-em so we’ll grab the value with South Carolina +3.5

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -4 vs Denver Nuggets, 9:40 PM ET - We won’t buy into the revenge angle for the Nuggets here who the Wolves eliminated from the playoffs last season. Minnesota is in a favorable scheduling situation here, coming off a home loss to the Mavs and having been at home since October 25th. Minnesota was 33-16 SU at home last season with an average plus/minus of +7.3PPG. Denver is playing their 3rd straight road game and have struggled in their first two at Toronto and Brooklyn who are lower tiered teams in the NBA. The Nuggets are currently 21st in defensive net rating and 17th in ONR. Those are extremely low considering their strength of schedule. Minnesota is 13th in ONR, 11th in DNR and have faced a much better schedule which included the Mavs, Kings and Lakers. Denver is not shooting it well with an EFG% of 49.4% which ranks 26th in the NBA. The Wolves are 6th in EFG% at 56.5%. This is a good spot to back the Wolves coming off a home loss. Minnesota was 24-8 SU off a loss last year and won those games by an average of +9.8PPG.

#312 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets -2 over Houston Texans, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Jets have lost 5 straight both SU and ATS but this team is much better than their 2-6 record. We’re getting some value because of that. The Jets were just favored by 7 @ New England and Houston played @ New England a few weeks ago and was laying 6.5. That tells us the Jets should be favored by a FG here. 4 of NY’s 5 losses have come by 6 points or less and they were ahead or tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of those games. NY has a positive YPG and YPP differential and their defense ranks 4th in the NFL (total defense) and 2nd in YPP allowed. This team is just happy to be back at home as they’ve been on the road for 3 of their last 4 games. Their most recent home game was a 23-20 loss vs a very good Buffalo team and the Jets outgained the Bills in that game both overall yardage and YPP. They are off an embarrassing loss @ New England last week that should give them some extra motivation coming into this game. That was a flukey win for the Pats as the Jets dominated outgaining New England by 2.0 YPP. In that game the Jets became the first team in NFL history to lose a game despite scoring 20+ points, holding their opponent to 250 or fewer yards, and not turning the ball over. Houston is coming off a big 3 point division win over the Colts and this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. The Texans are 6-2 on the season but they’ve been far from dominant with a point differential of just +9 on the season and both of their losses have come on the road. The Houston offense is averaging just 319 YPG on the road on 4.9 YPP which is the 10th worst mark on the road in the NFL. QB CJ Stroud QB rating, completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, etc… road splits are all much lower than his home splits. Now on a short week vs a very good defense, we think this one sets up very nicely for the Jets to pick up a home win.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:10 PM ET - Don’t get sucked into betting the playoff revenge angle here with the Pacers who the Celtics eliminated last year in the conference finals. Boston looks better than ever and get key contributor Sam Hauser back in the lineup tonight which provides more space with another perimeter shooter for the Celtics. Boston has already beaten two Eastern Conference contenders, the Bucks and Knicks, both by double-digits. Indiana struggled to beat the Pistons, then lost three straight to teams that rate below Boston. Boston was 53-13 SU against the East last season with an average +/- of +9.9PPG. They also won their road games by an average of +6.8PPG. Boston was one of the best defensive efficiency teams in the NBA last year, Indiana was one of the worst. The Celtics were one of the best offensive efficiency teams in the league last year as were the Pacers. This season the C’s are still the best OEFF team and one of the best DEFF. The Pacers are again bad defensively and their OEFF numbers have dropped to 23rd in the league. We will lay it here with Boston.

#307 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State +2.5 over Liberty, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’ve been waiting for this spot for a few weeks now looking forward to jumping on Jacksonville State as a dog. Liberty has been playing with fire all season long winning a number of close games vs poor opponents and it came back to bite them in their most recent game. That was a loss @ Kennesaw State who many, including us, had power rated as the worst team in FBS. That loss pushed this number down lower than it would have been but we still like JSU getting points here. In their loss vs Kennesaw, a team that JSU beat 63-24, Liberty allowed the Owls to score 27 points on 5.2 YPP. That may not seem like a big deal but KSU was averaging just 3.7 YPP entering the game (last in the nation) and they were averaging just 13 PPG. The Flames were undefeated entering that game but had really struggled to beat teams they should handle easily including NM State and FIU, among others. They continue to be priced according to their success last season but they simply aren’t anywhere near that caliber this year. The Flames are 1-5 ATS failing to cover the spread by a combined 80 points (almost 2 TD’s per game). Both teams have played an easy schedule to date but while Liberty is struggling to win by margin along with losing to what might be the worst team in the country, JSU has won and covered their last 4 games by margins of 37, 39, 41, and 22 points. The 2 common opponents this year are Kennesaw (JSU won by 39 / Liberty lost by 3) and NM State (JSU won by 41 / Liberty won by 6). Jacksonville St QB Huff is a little banged up but we’re hearing he’ll be OK for this one. His back up Smothers was originally at Nebraska and has solid experience if needed. This game would have set up perfectly for us if Liberty wouldn’t have lost to Kennesaw, however we still think the better team is getting points so we’ll stick with it.

#306 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -4 over UL Lafayette, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - Texas State is coming off an embarrassing effort @ ODU on October 19th losing 24-14 as a 10 points road chalk. They came into the game averaging 39 PPG (15th in the country) and they had scored at least 28 points in every game leading up to ODU. Just a terrible performance from a high level offense that may have been peaking ahead to this huge home match up vs ULL. That loss dropped the Bobcats to 4-3 on the season and this is a due or die game facing a Louisiana team that sits 1 game ahead of them in the Sun Belt West. Louisiana is 6-1 overall and 3-0 in Sun Belt play but Texas State has a better overall and conference point differential despite having 1 loss in league play and 3 losses overall. If we subtract their games vs FCS opponents (they’ve each played one) 4 of ULL’s 5 wins have come by 10 points or less while Texas State’s 3 wins vs FBS opponents have come by 39, 32 and 21 points. The Bobcats have played the slightly more difficult schedule yet have the better YPP differential and their defense ranks in the top 20 nationally allowing only 4.9 YPP. This is a game that Texas State already had tabbed as their most important game of the season months ago. Last year they lost @ Louisiana 34-30 but led by 9 points with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game and blew it. They lost on the road in that one despite outgaining ULL by over 100 yards and only punted once in the game. We like Texas State to bounce back from last week’s disaster game and win this one by more than 4 points.

#291 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +6 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re catching the NYG at the bottom of the market right now after getting rolled in their last 2 games by combined score of 45-10 vs Bengals & Eagles which has led to some line value here. Prior to that the Giants had won 2 of their previous 3 games topping Seattle and Cleveland, both as underdogs. New York has been better on the road this season with both of their wins coming away from home. Their only other road game was a tight 21-18 loss vs a solid Washington team. After their most embarrassing performance of the season, a 28-3 loss vs Philly, we expect NY to bounce back and play well this week. Pittsburgh is overvalued right now coming off 2 easy wins over Las Vegas and NYJ. However, those scores were very misleading. The YPP stats in those 2 wins were both close to even but Pittsburgh benefited from a +5 turnover margin in those 2 games combined. Despite their 5-2 record, the Steelers have a negative YPP differential on the season. The Steelers under Tomlin have been great as an underdog but not so much as a favorite. Especially at home where they are 18-25 ATS their last 43 as home favorites and 3-10 their last 13 as a home chalk of 6 or more points. Too many points and we’ll call for a tight game.

ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +9 at Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are expected to be much improved this season with some added veteran help in Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr and Malik Beasley to pair with a solid young rotation. Unfortunately for the Pistons they started the season with games against the Celtics, Cavs and Pacers to go 0-3. Detroit was very competitive in all three games though, losing by 6 to the Celts, 12 to the Cavs and 6 to Indiana. Miami was blown out in their home opener by the Magic, then won in Charlotte most recently by 8-points. The Heat can’t be trusted as a big home favorite with a 30-43-2 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2022 season. Last year the Heat won at home by just 1.5PPG, the 19th lowest number in the NBA. Detroit has a winning overall ATS record as a road dog the past two seasons at 22-20 versus the number. Detroit is better than their 0-3 SU record and have value at this number.

ASA play on NY Knicks -2.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:30 PM ET - The Cavs are 3-0 SU but have faced Washington, Detroit and Toronto who had a combined 54-192 record a year ago. The Knicks have faced the Celtics and Pacers and are 1-1 SU. New York is 21-17 ATS as a home favorite dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of plus 9.0ppg. Surprisingly, the Cavs haven’t been a great road underdog in that same time span with a 12-15 ATS record and a negative differential of minus -7.2ppg. The Knicks had the #1 rebound rate a year ago and should dominate the glass against this Cavaliers team that ranked 19th. These two teams were very similar defensively a year ago in efficiency ratings but the Knicks held a decisive advantage offensively with the 7th best OEFF compared to the Cavs who rated 16th. New York won 2 of 3 meetings a year ago and 8 of the last ten. Lay the short number with New York.

#276 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +3 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This line was set at -2.5 to -3 in favor of Washington last week and has moved a full 6 points due to Commander QB Daniels most likely out. That’s too much in our opinion. Washington has one of the top back ups in the league in veteran Marcus Mariota (16,000 career passing yards & 95 TDs) who entered in relief last week and threw for over 200 yards and 2 TD’s. Washington OC Kingsbury has proven to be on the of the best in the NFL and will have a solid gameplan set for Mariota and company in this game. The Bears are on a nice little 3 game run, however their opponents during that stretch were LA Rams (when half their offense was out due to injuries), Carolina, and Jacksonville. They haven’t played a true road game in over a month and the Bears are 0-2 SU in their 2 road games @ Indy and @ Houston. Despite their 4-2 record, Chicago has been outgained this season by -0.3 YPP which is 12th worst in the NFL. Their offense ranks 28th in YPP and Washington’s defense seems to be getting more comfortable holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to less than 300 yards. The only team that topped 300 yards during that stretch was Baltimore who has the best offense in the NFL. We look for Washington to rally around the Daniels injury and raise their game for this one as many teams do in this situation. They are 3-0 SU & ATS at home this season and Chicago is in unfamiliar territory laying points on the road for just the 3rd time since the start of the 2020 season. Take Washington.

#280 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks +3.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This is a much bigger game for Seattle as everyone in the NFC West is bunched together within 1 game of each other. Buffalo, on the other hand, has a huge lead in the AFC East with a 5-2 record well ahead of all other teams in the division who are 2-4 or worse. The Bills are overvalued in our opinion. Despite their record, they are getting outgained by 20+ YPG on the season. Their easy wins have come vs Jacksonville, Tennessee (with back up QB) and Miami (Tua injured early in that win) who have a combined 5-14 record on the season. They’ve only faced 2 teams this season that currently have a winning record and lost both games vs Baltimore & Houston. The Seahawks got back on track last week after a 3 game losing streak (2 of those losses were vs Detroit and San Francisco) by beating a very solid Atlanta team on the road 34-14. The Seattle defense, which is slowly getting back to healthy, looked very good holding a red hot Falcons offense (who scored 72 points the previous 2 weeks) to just 14 points. The Seahawks might be down WR Metcalf but there is an outside chance he plays and they are getting 2 key DB’s back this week to help the defense. Situational edge to Seattle as well as they had 10 days off prior to facing Atlanta while Buffalo is playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Seattle has one of the top home field advantages in the NFL and as a dog at home they’ve covered 19 of their last 26 games (73%). Take the points.

#267 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers -3.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This might be a square bet, but they win too, and the Packers are clearly the superior team in this match up. Something that’s been overlooked this season for Green Bay is their defense and how well they’ve played on that side of the football. With a new system and D-coordinator in place it has taken time for this unit to figure things out. For the season the Packers are allowing 5.1 yards per play which ranks 8th best in the league. In their last three games that number has dipped to 4.6YPP and last week they allowed just 3.4YPP to a Houston offense that is averaging 5.4YPP on the season. The Packers offense ranks 6th in yards per play offensively, 6th in total yards per game at 383, 5th in rushing and 9th in passing YPG. Green Bay is 8th in scoring margin at +6.1PPG and already has road wins against the Rams by 5 and at Tennessee by 16. The Jags just spent two weeks in Europe and will be happy to be home. Maybe even a little distracted. Jacksonville is middle of the pack in most offensive categories ranking 13th in YPP, 16th in total YPG and 21st in scoring at 20.7PPG. Defensively it’s not a good situation for the Jags and their fans. The Jaguars are 27th in yards allowed, 31st in yards per play allowed and opposing QB’s have had their way with this defense passing for 273YPG. The Jags have two wins to their credit, but they’ve come against the Colts and Patriots who rank near the bottom in the NFL. Green Bay is a top 7 team in our ratings. Jacksonville has an average loss margin of -7.0PPG.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +1.5 at L.A. Lakers – 10:40 PM ET - The Lakers have a pair of huge wins to start the season over the Timberwolves and Suns but are in a tough spot here. Los Angeles is playing the second night of a back-to-back and catch a Kings team coming off a home loss a few nights back. Sacramento played well in their opener and lost by 2-points to the Timberwolves. Sacramento has a new addition to their roster in DeMar DeRozen who scored 26-points and grabbed 8 rebounds in his Kings debut. This game means more to the Kings who are often looked at as the other California team behind the Lakers and Clippers. Sacramento has won 8 of the last 10 meetings and 5 straight, 3 in a row on this court. These two teams were nearly identical last season in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating, but we are expecting the Kings to be better this season with the addition of DeRozan. This line opened with the Lakers as a -3.5-point favorite and was quickly bet down to the current number. That would suggest that either LeBron or AD could be sitting for this game after playing last night. We like Sacramento here.

#155 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +4 over Michigan, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Huge coaching advantage here in our opinion with MSU’s Jonathan Smith (formerly at Oregon State) vs Michigan’s Sherrone Moore. Smith showed his coaching prowess last week coming out of a bye and roasting a good Iowa team 32-20 as a home underdog. To be honest, the score probably shouldn’t have even been that close as Sparty dominated 27 first downs to 12 and 468 total yards to 283 for the Hawkeyes. Meanwhile, a poorly coached Michigan team also came off a bye and lost 21-7 at Illinois as a 3 point favorite. Michigan State is now 4-3 but keep in mind, 2 of their losses came at the hands of Oregon and Ohio State who are currently ranked #1 and #4 in the nation respectively. Their other loss came 23-19 @ Boston College but MSU won the stat sheet in that game but had 4 turnovers. The Wolverines continue to be overvalued living off last year’s success. In fact, they’ve only covered 1 game this season (1-6 ATS) and their 2 wins in Big 10 play have both come at home by just 3 points while their losses were both by double digits. This team could easily be 0-4 in conference play. The Michigan offense is simply bad ranking 120th in total offense and 113th in YPP. They were hoping with Jack Tuttle back under center last week at Illinois the offense would get a jump start. Didn’t happen as they scored only 7 points and Tuttle wasn’t great. These 2 rivals have played nearly identical strength of schedules and MSU has the better stats (MSU +42 YPG and +0.7 YPP / Michigan -19 YPG and +0.0 YPP). This is a huge game for MSU as they’ve lost back to back years on blowout fashion to the Wolverines but they get their chance to make amends here with Michigan way down compared to previous editions. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -3 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets were a surprise team last season with a 41-41 record and just missed making the play in tournament. Expectations are much higher this season as their win total was set 12 wins higher than last year's number. They were just 8-point favorites at home against the Hornets and were upset after a horrendous shooting performance. The Rockets shot just 37% overall and 30% from Deep. Charlotte meanwhile hit 46% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc. Memphis is coming off a road win in Utah 126-124 as a -2.5-point favorite. One glaring aspect from that game was the rebound disparity as the Grizzlies were minus -13 boards in that game. Houston was 12th in Rebound Rate last season, Memphis was 25th. The other advantage the Rockets have is their transition defense that is one of the best in the league. Two years ago, with Morant the Grizzlies were very reliant on their transition offense which was 2nd in the NBA. The Rockets can nullify that advantage with their defense and if they shoot an average percentage will win this game by 8+ points. Houston won 3 of four meetings a year ago against this Memphis team with all three wins coming by 20, 13 and 7-points. Great line value here with Houston.

#116 ASA PLAY ON Boston College +7.5 over Louisville, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - The situational spot heavily favors BC here. They are at home after getting rolled @ Virginia Tech last Friday night. So they have had a full week to prepare. Their game vs Virginia Tech was a 28-21 score with less than 12 minutes remaining in the game and Tech sealed it with 2 TD’s in the 4th. It was a terrible performance by a BC defense that was allowing 20.6 PPG (31st nationally) entering the game. We expect them to bounce back in a big way at home on Friday night. The Eagles were +8 in that game @ Virginia Tech and now one week later they are +7 (as of this writing on Tuesday) at home vs Louisville team that power rates almost the exact same as the Hokies. Line value on Boston College. The Cards put in a huge effort last week at home in their most important game of the season vs Miami. Now they must travel on a short week after losing that game 52-45. Louisville was outgained by 1.6 YPP in that loss but benefited from a 100 yard kickoff return to keep it closer than it should have been. The defense was on the field a lot (35 minutes) and gave up nearly 8.0 YPP. The Cardinals have lost 3 of their last 4 games and their wins this season came vs Virginia (by 4 points), Georgia Tech (by 12 points – Louisville was outgained but had 2 defensive TD’s), Jacksonville State, and Austin Peay. Not overly impressive. BC is undefeated at home this season and 14-7-1 ATS in the home dog role since early in the 2017 season. Take the points.

ASA play on Minnesota Vikings -3 at LA Rams – 8:20 PM ET - We are buying on the Vikings to bounce back after the last second loss to the Lions on Sunday. While the Vikings were playing one of the best teams in the NFL, the Rams were facing one of the worst in the LV Raiders. The Rams won a tight game 20-15 and averaged just 5.0YPP against a porous Raiders defense. The Vikings averaged 7.4YPP against a very good Lions defense that allows just 5.5YPP on the season. The Rams still have significant injuries and an offensive line that can’t protect QB Stafford. That will be a major issue against the Vikings Brian Flores and his blitz happy scheme. The Rams allow 2.8 sacks per game and have a sack percentage of 7.87%, both rank 20th in the NFL. Minnesota’s defense is tied for 2nd in the league with 4.0 sacks per game and 8th in sack percentage. Conversely, Sam Darnold of the Vikings won’t be pressured in this game which presents a dangerous situation for the Rams secondary trying to contain Jefferson and Addison. The Rams are averaging just 1.8 sacks per game, 26th in the NFL. If we do a line comparison, the Packers were favored by 3-points here a few weeks ago. The Lions were favored by 5.5-points in Week 1. We would have the Vikings favored by -4.5 points here. Home underdogs on Thursday Night Football have been a wallet-busting bet of late with a 7-17 ATS run dating back 24 games.

#108 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State -20.5 over MTSU, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Jacksonville State has been the hottest team in CUSA over the last month.  They’ve won 3 straight by a combined score of 161 to 44.  They’ve outgained those 3 opponents (all comparable in our power ratings to this MTSU team) 1,616 to 866.  They’ve won each of those games by at least 37 points and they are healthy coming off a bye week.  Now they face a bad MTSU team that we have power rated as the 4th worst team in FBS.  The Blue Raiders just played Kennesaw State (who we have rated dead last in FBS) and won a tight game 14-5.  The yardage was about dead even in that game but KSU had 2 turnovers (0 for MTSU).  Just 2 weeks ago, Jacksonville State beat that Kennesaw State team 63-24 and outgained them by over 300 yards.  We don’t see any way this Middle Tennessee offense can keep up in this game.  They are averaging just 13.8 PPG (minus their 1 FCS game) and facing a Jacksonville State offense that is putting up an average of 49 PPG over their last 4.  We don’t see that changing here as they face an MTSU defense that ranks 129th in total defense, 132nd in YPP allowed, and 130th in scoring defense.  The Blue Raiders closest loss this season was by 17 points and the average score in their losses is 44-14.  Another blowout on the way Wednesday night.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -5.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx, Game 5 Sunday Oct 20th - In game 1 the Liberty obviously were the much better team for 35 minutes of game 1 and led by as many as 18-points and then lost. In Game 2 at home the Liberty bounced back and won by 14-points. These teams then split two close games in Games 3&4 with both being decided by 1-basket in each. Now back home we like the Liberty to earn the Championship and win by margin. New York was 2nd in both offensive & defensive rebounds per game during the regular season and have continued to dominate the glass in the postseason. The Liberty have outrebounded their opponents in every playoff game including the Finals against this Lynx team. Minnesota in comparison is last in rebounding percentage in the playoffs. The Liberty were 16-4 SU at home during the regular season with an average +/- of +7.0PPG. NY is 5-1 SU at home in the postseason with a +8.3PPG differential. Home teams in the WNBA Finals in this situation off a loss have historically been very good ATS. New York is 8-1 SU this season when coming off a loss. Lay it here with NY.

#455 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +9.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - If you looked at the season long key stats for these 2 teams, you’d have no idea one of them is 4-2 and the other is 1-4. In fact, the team with the 1-4 record has been better in the stat sheet this year. The Titans have a YPP margin of +0.1 and they’ve outgained their opponents by an average of +5 YPG this season. The Bills have a YPP margin of -0.1 and they’ve been outgained by -41 YPG this season. The problem with Tennessee is their turnover situation. They have a -7 turnover margin this year which is 31st in the NFL. If they can avoid the giveaways here, we actually think they have a shot to pull the upset. It’s a great spot to fade Buffalo as they are on a short week off a huge division win on Monday night topping the Jets 23-20. Buffalo was outgained in this game by 0.7 YPP and this offense has not looked good as of late scoring 10, 20 and 23 points in their last 3 games. Not ideal for a team that is laying nearly double digits in this one. They are facing a Tennessee defense that most probably don’t realize is #1 in the NFL in total defense and YPP allowed. The Titans rank in the top 10 in both rush and pass defense. They have held every opponent but one to 17 points or fewer this season. 3 of Tennessee’s 4 losses have come by 7 points or less. It’s going to be tough for Buffalo’s struggling offense to pull away in this one. We’ll take the generous points in what looks to be a lower scoring game with the total set at 41.

#461 ASA PLAY ON Miami Dolphins +3 over Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Fins are off bye week and had a win heading into their time off so they have some momentum. The bye week was key giving newly acquired QB Huntley some more time to get acclimated to the system. It also gives a very good offensive HC McDaniel extra time to get a game plan ready with Huntley under center. Miami looks pretty healthy after their week off and they get starting RB Achane back in the line up for this one. They are facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL as the Colts rank 30th in total defense, 31st vs the run, and 26th vs the pass. The vibe in Miami is good right now as well as they still have a shot in a weak division and they expect starting QB Tagovailoa back soon, possibly next week. A win here gets them back to .500 and hosting Arizona next week. The Colts are starting Richardson at QB for this game which we prefer. Flacco was solid in his absence and gives them a better chance to win in our opinion. Richardson is dead last in the NFL completing only 50% of his passes. He’s facing a very good Miami defense that allows just 285 YPG which is more than 100 yards better than the Indianapolis defense. On top of that, the Colts are really banged up on offense with RB Taylor most likely out along with their top 3 WR’s currently questionable. The Colts haven’t been able to put anyone away this season with their 3 wins coming by 3, 3, and 5 points. Indy is off back to back division games and they face another division opponent (Houston) next week. We give Miami a solid shot at the upset here so we’ll take the points.

#400 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +3 over LSU, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great situational spot here for the Razorbacks at home.  They are coming off a bye week while LSU is off an OT, come from behind, win over Ole Miss last Saturday.  In that win vs Ole Miss the Tigers were outgained, only had 84 yards on the ground, and needed a long drive in the final 3 minutes (aided by two 4th down conversions) just to get to OT where they won 29-26.  This is a tough spot now going on the road vs a solid Arkansas team that had big momentum heading into the bye upsetting Tennessee here at home.  In their only true road game this season, LSU topped South Carolina 36-33, but trailed by 17 points in the first half.  They led for just over 2:00 total minutes in that win.  They probably should have lost that game along with their game vs Ole Miss last week which would have put them at a 3-3 record and we’re talking about a completely different line in this game if that was the case.  Even their lone loss this season, 27-20 vs USC, isn’t looking great as the Trojans are now just 3-3.  These 2 SEC rivals have played almost identical strength of schedules to date, yet Arkansas has the better point differential, YPG margin, and YPP margin.  We also like that the host should have a solid advantage on the ground with a +94 YPG rushing margin on the season while LSU is -4 YPG rushing this season.  Razor QB Green was banged up in his last game, a win over Tennessee, but looks like he’s ready to go coming off the bye.  The Razorbacks have covered 7 of their last 8 as a dog and head coach Pittman has covered 22 of his last 30 when getting points.  We’ll call for another on Saturday. 

#409 ASA PLAY ON Auburn +4 over Missouri, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Missouri is 5-1 on the season and ranked in the top 20.  Auburn is 2-4 on the season yet this line is only Mizzou -4.5 at home?  The Auburn Tigers are much better than their record this season.  Despite being 2 games under .500, Auburn has outgained their opponents by an average of +107 YPG and they have a +2.3 YPP margin.  That’s facing a very tough schedule to date (36th SOS) having already played Georgia, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  The problem with Auburn has been turnovers.  They are already -11 turnovers on the season which is dead last in the country.  If they can rectify that, this team is really quite good.  They rank in the top 35 nationally in both total offense and total defense.  Missouri has played a light weight schedule this season.  Their strength of schedule is ranked 111th which is the 2nd easiest at the Power 4 level ahead of only Indiana.  They’ve faced only 1 team this season power rated inside our top 50 and that was Texas A&M who rolled Missouri 41-10 outgaining the Tigers 512 to 254.  The only other 2 teams with a pulse that Mizzou has faced this year were home games vs Vandy (Tigers won in OT) and Boston College (Tigers won by 6).  Despite playing an ultra easy schedule, Missouri is just +1.1 YPP margin which is far worse than Auburn’s who has faced a much more difficult slate.  Auburn is coming off a bye week and they’ve won all 3 meetings vs Missouri.  If Auburn can keep their turnovers in check, they’ll have a great shot to win this game outright. 

#321 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma State +9.5 over BYU, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid line value with OSU here just based on recent spreads involving BYU.  The Cougars were just favored by -2.5 last weekend at home vs Arizona, a team that rates nearly identical to Oklahoma State in our power ratings.  BYU was favored earlier this year by 9.5 (same number as we have on Friday) at home vs a Wyoming team that is among the worst in the country.  In their most recent road game, OSU was a 6 point dog @ Kansas State (who was favored by 7 @ BYU earlier this year) and we have the Wildcats rated a full 6 points better than BYU on a neutral field.  You get the point.  OSU has played back to back terrible games which is the reason this line sits where it is.  The Cowboys were rolled by both Kansas State and West Virginia their last 2 contests but now had 2 weeks off to regroup and prepare for this one.  BYU is 6-0 both SU and ATS but they’ve been pretty fortunate.  Last week in their blowout win over Arizona, the yardage was about even but the Wildcats had 4 turnovers.  They topped Baylor by 6 a week earlier in a game that was also basically even yardage wise and the Bears were shut out on downs inside BYU territory late.  A week earlier they topped KSU but were outgained by 125 yards and helped by the Cats who had 3 turnovers.  9 takeaways by BYU in the last 3 games isn’t sustainable.  When these 2 met last year @ Okie State, the Cowboys were favored by 17 and now getting nearly 10?  That’s a 27 point swing in one year.  In a similar spot last year, the Cowboys were 2-2 coming off losses vs South Alabama and Iowa State heading into their bye.  Coming out of their bye week they beat Kansas State as an 11 point underdog, won 5 in a row and 7 of their last 9.  OSU head coach Gundy has been around a long time and is a solid head man.  He’ll have them ready here.  Take the points.

ASA play on NY Jets +1 vs. Buffalo Bills, Monday 8:20 PM ET - One of the bigger public Sports Books is carrying this line as the Bills favored by 1-point with an overwhelming number of bets and “Joe’s” money on Buffalo. When we see that we immediately look at the other side of the ticket. Buffalo is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd straight road game after facing the Ravens and Texans on the road. The Bills lost both of those games after starting the season 3-0 against subpar competition. We are betting the Jets will get a bump this week with the coaching change as Saleh wasn’t well liked in the locker room and new coach Jeff Ulbrich is. They should also be better offensively with a new play caller Todd Downing takes over for Nathaniel Hackett. We have seen a regression in the Bills offense the past two weeks facing solid defenses similar to the Jets. Buffalo’s offense could be limited tonight with WR Shakir and RB Cook both listed as questionable. The Jets have not run the ball effectively with RB Hall this season ranking last in the league in RYPG but that could change tonight versus a banged-up Bills defense that is 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 32nd in yards per rush allowed at 5.2. The home team has won 5 straight in this series, make it 6 after tonight.

#285 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Sometimes the obvious bet is right, which is the case tonight. Cincinnati is in a dire situation with a 1-4 start to the season and desperately needs a win this week. This Bengals team had high hopes and were a team predicted to potentially win the AFC North. This team is just a few years removed from playing in the Super Bowl and loaded offensively. The Bengals are better than their record with the 2nd rated offense in terms of DVOA and the 22nd defensively. In comparison the Giants are 17th in DVOA offensively, 19th in defense. Cincinnati lost to Kansas City and Baltimore, who we have rated as the top two teams in the NFL. They also have a loss to the 4-1 Redskins. New York is 2-3 SU and coming off a shocking road win in Seattle last Sunday as a 7-point underdog.  The Giants have lost twice at home this season and are just 15-19-1 SU at home since 2020 with a negative differential of minus -4.4PPG. The Giants will be without their top receiver again this week with Nabers out and are also missing their top edge rusher with Thibodeaux out. The Giants will have a hard time keeping up in this one against a Bengals team that has put up 33+ points in three straight games. With Joe Burrows under center the Bengals have covered 10 of their last fourteen as a road chalk. Lay it!

#281 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -6 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Now that the NFL teams have had a few weeks to settle in, we are starting to see the cream rise to the top and Atlanta is certainly trending up. Carolina on the other hand is not. The Panthers got a 1-game bump when QB Dalton took over for Bryce Young and won at Las Vegas but since then they have lost two straight. Let’s face it, the win over Vegas isn’t that impressive considering the disarray that franchise is in right now. The Panthers then lost by double digits to Cincinnati at home and at Chicago the next two weeks. Last week the Panthers defense gave up 36-points and 6.1 Yards Per Play to the Bears who are averaging just 22.2PPG and 4.4YPP on the season. Atlanta has faced a tough schedule to start the season but is coming off their best game of the season against Tampa Bay. The Falcons put up 36-points and averaged 6.5YPP offensively. Atlanta has a +0.9 Yards Per Play differential compared to the Panthers who have the 4th worst YPP differential of minus -1. Atlanta is 9th in offensive DVOA, 20th defensively, Carolina is 29th and 30th. The Panthers had a negative point differential of minus -10.6PPG last season, minus -7PPG when at home.

#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars +1 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - This game is being played at Tottenham Stadium on London.  The Jags are more than familiar with playing in London as they’ve already been their 11 times (6-5 SU record).  In fact, they face Chicago on Sunday, then stay in London to play New England next week as well.  We like the been there, done that, situation for Jacksonville vs a young Chicago team making their first trip overseas since 2019.  The Bears are 3-2 on the season but a bit of a fraud in our opinion.  Their wins have come vs Tennessee, LA Rams, and Carolina who have a combined record of 3-11 and Chicago was outgained in 2 of those wins.  As you might expect based on those wins, the Bears have played one of the easiest strength of schedules to date (30th) yet they are still getting outgained by 0.6 YPP (3rd worst in the NFL).  They’ve only outgained 1 opponent on a YPP basis this season and that was Carolina rates as one of the worst few teams in the NFL.  Jacksonville was considered by many a playoff caliber team entering the season.  They have disappointed with a 1-4 record, however they have a better YPP margin than the Bears and have played the much more difficult schedule thus far.  Three of their four losses have coming by 5 points or less and they have some momentum heading overseas after beating the Colts last Sunday.  The offense, which ranks 11th in YPP, looked better than it has all season in that win putting up 37 points on nearly 500 yards.  Head coach Doug Pederson took over play calling duties for that one and it showed on the field.  The Bears offense is averaging only 287 YPG and 4.4 YPP which is 29th in the league.  The Jags should control the trenches here with their +0.9 YPC margin vs Chicago’s -0.7 YPC margin.  QB Trevor Lawrence finally had a breakout game last Sunday with 370 yards passing giving him some much needed confidence heading into this one.  Our power ratings have Jacksonville as a small favorite here so we’ll grab the points with the Jags.

#196 ASA PLAY ON UCLA +4 over Minnesota, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Minnesota is in a really rough spot here making the long travel to California after upsetting USC in Minneapolis last week. The Gophers scored the game winning TD with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game to win 27-24. USC outgained Minnesota in the game but turned the ball over 3 times and missed a FG. Gopher head coach PJ Fleck went nutty in the locker room post game as if they had just won the National Championship. That ended a huge 3 game stretch for Minnesota facing Iowa, Michigan, then USC (they lost the first 2 games). We would expect a letdown in this game in which they are expected to win. We were down on UCLA entering the season but they’ve shown a lot of fight despite their 1-4 record. They have played the #1 rated strength of schedule in the nation and they get a bit of a reprieve here after taking on Indiana, LSU, Oregon, and Penn State over their last 4 games. Those 4 opponents have a combined record of 20-1 on the season. UCLA has covered 3 in a row by an average of more than a TD per game. Last week @ PSU, the Bruins lost 27-11 as 4 TD dogs, were only outgained by 62 yards and held the vaunted Nittany Lion rushing attack to just 85 yards on 2.8 YPC. They have not given up, playing hard vs a brutal schedule and now they catch Minnesota in a great spot to get picked off. Big 10 teams that have traveled at least 2 times zones in conference play this year (West coast teams to the Midwest or East or vise versa) are 1-8 SU this season. The last 4 times Minnesota has been a road favorite, they are 0-4 ATS and lost 3 of those games outright. UCLA keeps this close and has a great shot at the upset.

#124 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia +3.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This is a perfect spot for overvalued vs undervalued in our opinion. WVU is 3-2 on the season with losses vs Penn State and Pitt who have a combined record of 10-0. The Mountaineers weren’t overly competitive in week 1 vs PSU which is understandable vs a top 5 team. They blew a 10 point lead with less than 4 minutes remaining vs Pitt so this WVU team could easily be 4-1. ISU steps in with an undefeated record but they’ve played a much easier schedule. Their best win was 20-19 vs in-state rival Iowa, a game that ISU never led until their game winning FG with 6 seconds left in the contest. Their other wins have come vs North Dakota, Arkansas State, Baylor (2-4 record), and Houston (2-4 record). The Cyclones are stepping up in class here and laying a full FG on the road. WVU has some solid momentum and should be fairly rested here as they roasted Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week and the Mountaineers were coming off a bye for that one. They absolutely dominated the Cowboys outgained them 558 to 227, including 389 to 36 on the ground. Speaking of the ground, West Virginia has one of the best rushing attacks in the country averaging 239 YPG on 6.0 YPC. They should control the ground game vs an Iowa State defense that allowed 155 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC. Dating back to early in the 2021 season, ISU has been a road favorite 9 times and they have a 3-6 ATS & SU record in those games. They are overvalued here due to their perfect mark vs a weak schedule. We like WVU to win this game at home.

#194 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -13.5 over Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - These 2 teams are both 3-2 but there is no comparison when looking at how these teams have gotten to this point. Texas State is the FAR superior team. TSU’s 2 losses came at the hands of Arizona State (by 3 points) and Sam Houston State (by 1 point). The Bobcats outgained both of those teams in losing efforts and blew an 18 point second half lead vs SHSU and a 7-point second half lead vs ASU. Their stats are extremely impressive and scream undefeated team. Despite their 3-2 record, the Bobcats are +12.6 PPG, +125 YPG, and +2.8 YPP. Arkansas State has the same 3-2 record, yet their numbers in those key stats are -9.2 PPG, -78 YPG, and -1.6 YPP. While Texas State has outgained each of their 5 opponents, Arkansas State has been outgained in all 5 of their games. The Red Wolves actually rank outside the top 100 in both total offense and total defense. Their wins came vs FCS Central Arkansas by 3 points, Tulsa who has a 2-4 record, by 4 points, and South Alabama, who has a 2-4 record, by 2 points. We were on South Alabama last week and Arkie State kicked a FG with 10 seconds remaining to win the game. TSU played @ Troy last week and blasted the Trojans 38-17 outgaining them by 130 yards including 215 to 63 on the ground. Not only is Texas State the much better team in this match up, they have massive revenge involved. This is a game they’ve been waiting for. That’s because last season, TSU was favored @ Arkansas State and lost 77-31. You read that correctly. Believe it or not, the Bobcats actually outgained ASU 539 to 494 in that loss but had 4 turnovers (0 for ASU) in that game. Not only that, 3 of the turnovers were a fumble returned for a TD along with 2 pick 6’s. On top of that, Arkansas State also had a 93 yard kickoff return so 4 non-offensive TD’s in the game. We don’t think Arkansas State, who is averaging 21 PPG, can keep up here vs a motivated Texas State team that has already scored at least 34 points in 4 of their 5 games. Blowout expected here.

#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3 over California, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for the Golden Bears. This team will have a hard time getting up off the mat after blowing a huge lead at home vs Miami last week. Cal led the Canes by 20 points with just over 10 minutes remaining in game last Saturday and they lost 39-38. Miami scored 3 TD’s in the final 10:28 to get the 1 point win including the game winner with 28 seconds remaining. Now they have to make the long 2500 mile trip to Pittsburgh which will be the Bears 3rd trip to the east time zone since Sept 7th. That means this Cal team will have already traveled almost 13,000 miles in the last 5 weeks when they land in Pittsburgh for this game. Their devastating home loss vs Miami on Saturday actually wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. How the Bears pulled out to a 20 point lead is tough to comprehend as they were outgained by 205 total yards and had 18 fewer first downs. The Canes held a 15 minute time of possession edge and ran 86 offensive snaps which should lead the Cal defense running out of gas in this game, especially as the game wears on. While the Bears were blowing a huge lead at home, Pitt went into North Carolina and won 34-24 outgaining the Heels by over 100 yards. They won by 10 despite the Tar Heels scoring on an 86 yard pick 6 which was potentially a 14 point turnaround with Pitt going into score. The Panthers are now 5-0 with solid wins over UNC, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. It’s not a fluke the Panthers are undefeated as their stats have been dominant. On the season they are +20 PPG, +152 YPG, +2.3 YPP, and +2.9 yards per rush. Cal is 3-2 on the season and in those stats they are +8 PPG, +28 YPG, +0.7 YPP, and +0.2 yards per rush. One of their long road trips was a loss @ a bad Florida State team giving the Noles their only win so far this season. Pitt is at home and is full focused heading into a bye week. Easy win for the Panthers in this one.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -6 vs. Minnesota Lynx, Game 1 Thursday Oct 10th - Scheduling clearly favors the Liberty here who have been off for a week, while the Lynx will be playing their 3rd game this week. One thing we’ve learned this WNBA season is that depth is a huge concern for the majority of the teams in the league. It will be tough for Minnesota to get up again after their grueling 5-game series with the Sun. A demoralizing factor in this game will be the rebounding advantage the Liberty have. New York was 2nd in both offensive & defensive rebounds per game during the regular season and have continued to dominate the glass in the postseason. The Liberty have outrebounded their opponents in every playoff game and will limit the Lynx second chance opportunities. Minnesota in comparison is last in rebounding percentage in the playoffs. New York has been really good at home and has won by margin. The Liberty were 16-4 SU at home during the regular season with an average +/- of +7.0PPG. NY is 4-0 SU at home in the postseason with a +9.3PPG differential. Minnesota has beaten the Liberty 3 of four this season but this is simply a bad scheduling situation for them and will be tough to hang within double-digits.

ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +5.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Chiefs are undefeated but their point differential is just +20 (7th in the NFL). All 4 of their wins this season have come by a TD or less. KC has won 8 of last 9 dating back to last season but 7 of those 8 wins have been one score games so they are not pulling away from teams in their wins. KC’s overall stats are pretty darn average for a team that is 4-0. They are 15th in YPP margin at +0.2 and have outgained opponents overall by just +2 YPG. On top of that, the Chiefs have LOTS of injuries on offense missing their top RB as well as their top 3 WR’s entering the season. The Saints are now 2-2 so this is a bigger game for them. Their 2 wins were both blowouts, but their losses were each down to the wire losing by 3 vs Philly and by 2 vs Atlanta. In their 26-24 loss @ Atlanta last week, New Orleans outgained the Falcons but the Birds had 2 defensive TD’s in the game. Despite their 2-2 record, New Orleans has outgained 3 of their 4 opponents and they have a better YPP margin when compared to the Chiefs. The Saints have been a long term money maker on the road going 35-18 ATS away from home over the last 6+ seasons. Lastly, in MNF games when an AFC team faces an NFC team, the home teams have been terrible with a spread record of just 12-32-2 ATS (27.3%). We give the Saints a decent shot at the upset here but worst case we like them to keep this close.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Rams are really banged up right now and it shows in their performances this season.  They will again be without their top 2 WR’s Cupp & Nakua and their offensive still has issues.  Partly due to that, their offense has struggled scoring just 18.8 PPG while only averaging 5.2 YPP.  That’s not good when your defense can’t stop anyone.  LA ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.4 YPP and dead last in rushing defense giving up 165 YPG on the ground on 5.0 YPC.  That’s not a good recipe for success especially in this game vs a Green Bay offense that is averaging 175 YPG rushing which is 2nd in the league.  The Packers struggle offensively to start last week’s game which was expected at QB Love was back but had missed a few weeks prior.  However, in the 2nd half GB kicked it in gear and nearly won in a game they trailed 28-7 at half (31-29 final).  Once Love and the offense got comfortable and back in synch they tallied over 300 yards in the 2nd half alone.  We think they’ll pick up where they left off vs this suspect Rams defense.  LA is just not playing well right now.  They rank 31st in YPP differential ahead of only New England and they have been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this season.  The only team they outgained in the stats was Chicago last week which wasn’t a surprise as the Bears rank last in the NFL in YPP offense.  We like Green Bay to win this one by more than a FG.

#457 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Not sure why Jacksonville is favored by a full FG here (as of this writing on Friday).  They are the only winless team in the NFL and they’ve only won 1 of their last 9 games dating back to last season.  Jags QB Lawrence has been disappointing to say the least losing his last 9 times a starting QB and he ranks 23rd in the NFL this year in passing yards and QBR.  With their 0-4 record to start the season, Jacksonville’s chance of making the playoffs are basically nil and you have to wonder what their mindset is moving forward.  They have very little home field advantage with a 3-6 SU record since the start of last season.  The Jags are also just 16-32 as a home favorite dating back to the start of the 2008 season.  The Colts are 2-2 after topping previously undefeated Pittsburgh last week but their stats say they are better than that.  Their YPP differential is +0.7 which is the 8th best mark in the NFL (Jags are -1.0 YPP).  Looks like Indy will start Joe Flacco at QB (if not we’re good with Richardson under center as well) and we feel he might be a one game upgrade over Anthony Richardson.  We often see a one game surge from a team that loses their starting QB and Flacco came in last week after Richardson was injured vs a very good Pittsburgh defense and threw for 168 yards and 2 TDs.  We like Indy to keep this close and we’ll take the FG.

#330 ASA PLAY ON Coastal Carolina -5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - This is a fantastic spot to back CC and fade ODU. Coastal is coming off a bye-week and will be rested and have the perfect gameplan in place for the Monarchs. Old Dominion is coming off a last second win on the road at Bowling Green. ODU averaged just 5.1YPP against Bowling Green and needed a TD with just .24-seconds left to pull out the road upset. Old Dominion had lost three straight games prior with 19, 14 and 17 points offensively. Coastal Carolina was 3-0 SU prior to a loss to Virginia on Sept 21st. CC put up 390 yards in the loss to UVA but were minus -2 in TO’s. Virginia pounded Coastal on the ground with their rushing attack which ranks 30th in college football. ODU does not possess that type of rushing attack, and they may be down to their second-string QB here as their starter, Wilson, went out last game in the 3rd quarter. The Monarchs have one of the worst passing attacks in the country averaging just 145PYPG on the season with a completion rate of 53.10% which ranks 117th. Old Dominion has a negative point differential of minus -6.8PPG this season and were minus -7.4PPG on the road a year ago. Last year Coastal Carolina won at ODU 28-24 but they outgained the Monarchs by over 110 total yards. CC is 23-5 SU their last 28 home games. ODU has lost 14 of their last 20 road games by an average of minus -6PPG.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE (SBC) GAME OF THE MONTH: #387 ASA PLAY ON South Alabama -3 over Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Arkansas State has the better record at 2-2 while South Alabama sits at 2-3 yet we feel the Jaguars are the much better team in this match up.  Arkie State could easily be 0-4 on the season as their wins over Central Arkansas and Tulsa by 3 & 4 points respectively.  The Red Wolves were outgained 7.1 YPP to 5.0 YPP vs FCS Central Arkansas and 5.9 YPP to 5.3 YPP vs Tulsa.  They were extremely fortunate to come out with 2 wins in those games.  On the season Arkansas State had a YPG margin of -120, a YPP margin of -2.2 and a YPC (rushing) margin of -3.2.  Compare that to South Alabama who has a YPG margin of +21, a YPP margin of +0.4, and a YPC margin of +1.7.  The Jaguars should have a massive edge on the ground in this game 210 YPG rushing on 6.2 YPC vs a Arkansas State defense 234 yards on the ground (129th) on 6.0 YPC (131st).  The Wolves have been outgained by at least 1.8 YPC in all 4 of their games this season.  The South Alabama offense is potent and we don’t see ASU keeping up here.  They rank 19th nationally in total offense (470 YPG) and 21st putting up 7.1 YPP.  ASU ranks 104th and 125th in those 2 stats.  On top of that, we don’t see the Arkansas State defense making up for their offensive deficiencies here as they rank outside the top 100 in total defense and YPP allowed.  South Alabama has won 5 straight in this series and last year they were favored by 15.5 so getting them at -3 here is a bargain.  The Jags already proved they can get it done on the road beating App State 48-14 a few weeks ago and we have App State rated as a better team that Arkansas State.  Let’s lay this small number with South Alabama.

#378 ASA PLAY ON Connecticut -17 over Temple, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UConn is rolling right now to say the least.  They are coming off a 47-3 blowout win over Buffalo last week.  A week earlier they rolled FAU here at home 48-14.  In their 3 games at home the Huskies have scored 158 for an average of 52 PPG.  The 2 teams they just destroyed here we have both rated better than this Temple squad who we have rated in the bottom 10 nationally.  The Owls may be without their starting QB Simon who injured his shoulder in last week’s 48-14 home loss vs Army.  Their back up QB Brock has an injured wrist so there is a chance this bad Owls offense (119th in total offense) will be down to their 3rd string signal caller.  In their 2 road games this season, Temple has been outscored 89-14.  Their rush defense ranks 131st allowing 261 YPG on 5.9 YPC.  That won’t cut it here vs this UConn running game that is up to 12th nationally averaging 245 YPG and they’ve rushed for a ridiculous 1,300+ yards in their 3 home games.  UConn starting QB Evers left last week’s blowout win with an injury but back up Fagnano is a better passer and has played plenty this season.  He makes this offense even tougher to defend in our opinion.  He came in last week, let the Huskies to 34 of their 47 points, had over 200 yards passing and 3 TDs.  We were on UConn last week in an easy win and we’re not back off this money train this week.  They’ve covered their last 4 games by an average of 29 points above and beyond the spread and we anticipate another easy win on Saturday vs a bad Temple team.

#367 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +6.5 over UNLV, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some pretty good line value with the Orange in this game.  Our power ratings have UNLV favored by a FG here.  To put this number in perspective, last week the Rebels played host to Fresno State and they were favored by -2.5 to -3 range.  We have Cuse favored by a full TD over Fresno on a neutral field in our ratings.  Others we respect are in the same range.  This line has moved too much based on UNLV’s 59-14 win over Fresno.  While impressive, the fact is Fresno had 4 turnovers (0 for UNLV) which led to a number of very good offensive situations for the Rebels who scored TD’s on drives of 25 yards, 29 yards, a 90 yard punt return, and blocked punt return.  UNLV played with their back up QB Williams (transfer from Campbell) after their starter quit the team early in the week because of an NIL dispute.  Williams looked very good, but now Cuse has film on him and teams often get that one game, rally the troops, boost in this type of situation.  UNLV has faced one Power 4 opponent this year, Kansas, and while they won by a FG, the Rebs were dominated in the stats 6 YPP to 4.1 YPP, 6.4 yards per pass attempt to 4.8, and 5.7 YPC to 3.9.  That’s a Kansas team that is now 1-4 and the Jayhawks were favored by 9 in that game.  Now we have UNLV laying nearly a full TD in this one.  Syracuse rolled over Holy Cross and their lone loss was a 2 point setback vs Stanford in a game they outgained the Cardinal.  The Orange are one of the better passing teams in the nation (#3 averaging 372 passing YPG) and UNLV has struggled vs the pass (60th) despite only playing one QB who is a solid passing threat.  That was last week vs Fresno’s Mikey Keene who threw for over 300 yards on 66% completion rate.  We expect Syracuse QB McCord (former Ohio State starter) to have a big day and keep the Orange in this one all the way.  Take the points.

WNBA play on Minnesota -4 vs. Connecticut Tuesday, 9:30 PM ET - Off the home loss in Game 1, we like the Lynx to bounce back in Game 2 and even this series at 1-1. After two monster scoring games of 38, 42-points against the Mercury in the first round, Napheesa Collier, struggled in G1 versus the Sun with 19-points. As a team the Lynx struggled shooting at 42% overall and just 25% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly lower than their season averages of 44.8% overall and 38% from Deep (1st in WNBA). Granted, this Sun is a very good defensive team and that has something to do with the poor shooting night but you can bet there is an upward regression for the Lynx shooting in Game 2. The Sun also had an unusual great shooting night themselves in G1 by hitting 41% of their 3-pointers. They shoot just 32.7% on the season and the Lynx held opponents to 30.1%, best percentage in the W. Minnesota is 16-5 SU their last 21 home games with an average margin of victory of +7.5PPG. Minnesota is 23-8 SU their last 31 at home and have lost back-to-back games just twice this season.

#292 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3.5 over Seattle Seahawks, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Seattle comes into this game with a 3-0 record be we feel they are vastly overvalued early in the season.  They’ve played 3 cupcake games thus far and now are finally on the road vs a legit playoff type team.  They’ve played Denver with a rookie QB making his first ever start, @ New England (won in OT), and then vs Miami with Skylar Thompson at QB.  Their overall numbers, especially on defense, are not as good as they may seem.  Seattle ranks #1 vs the pass but again they’ve faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson.  Now they face Jared Goff at home where he has won 13 of his last 16 games and his home stats have been fantastic (70% completion rate last year with 19 TD’s).  In their only road game, Seattle struggled to slow down New England’s running game (185 yards on 5.1 YPC) and now they face a Detroit rushing attack that rates 4th in the NFL at 163 YPG.  Seattle is also really banged up on defense with potentially 4 starters out for this game and a few more in the 2 deep will have to sit as well.  One of Goff’s rare home losses was last year vs this Seattle team.  Detroit outplayed the Hawks averaging more YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempts but lost in OT.  The Lions turned the ball over 3 times in that OT loss (0 for Seattle) including a pick 6 which was the difference in the game.  A little extra motivation for Detroit in this one.  The line value is solid as Detroit was favored by 5 here last year, they were favored over playoff team Tampa Bay by 7.5 just a few weeks ago and last week on the road they were -3 @ Arizona.  This is a big home game for the Lions who are 2-1 and take the road for 4 of their next 5 games.  They lead the NFL in YPG margin at +106 and if they avoid the turnover bug, we like them to win this game by at least a TD.

WNBA top play on Minnesota -4 vs. Connecticut Sun, 8:30 PM ET - If you have been following us for any length of time you’ve heard us say many times the Lynx are the best team in the league. Napheesa Collier is one of the best in the league and she clearly upped her game in the first two playoff games against the Mercury with 38 and 42-points. Those numbers come against Brittney Griner who is labeled as a defensive stopper. Minnesota is 16-4 SU their last 20 home games with an average margin of victory of +10PPG. Connecticut is coming off a series with the Fever and got a ton of media coverage with Caitlyn Clark in town. They won big in game 1 of that series and won close in game 2. That was against a Fever team that is one of the worst defensive teams in the W, Minnesota is one of the best. These two teams have near-even season statistics when it comes to Offensive & Defensive Net ratings, but we like the scheduling situation here to back the Lynx. Minnesota is 23-7 SU their last 30 at home and will benefit from the home crowd in this one. Lay it.

#288 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a much more important game for the Ravens who sit with a 1-2 record while the Bills have gotten off to a 3-0 start.  Baltimore has outgained each of their opponents by a combined 265 yards including topping KC by 100 yards in a week 1 loss on the road.  Their 28-25 win @ Dallas last week was a bit deceiving with the Ravens rolling out to a 28-6 lead in the 4th quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  They won’t make that mistake again as Dallas scored 3 TDs in the final 9:00 minutes to make it tighter than it should have been with Baltimore holding a 7.6 to 5.9 YPP edge in that game.  Buffalo is on the road on a short week after beating a bad Jacksonville team (0-3 record) on Monday night.  The Bills had to come from 14 points down in their opener to nip Arizona and then faced an overvalued Miami team that lost QB Tagovailoa during the game.  Buffalo is good but overvalued right now in our opinion.  The host Ravens are averaging 203 YPG rushing on a league high 5.9 YPC and they should be able to take advantage of a Buffalo defense that has allowed 4.7 YPC (22nd) and is playing without their top 2 LB’s.  When facing a mobile QB in week 1 (Arizona’s Kyler Murray) the Bills allowed 125 yards rushing on 5.0 YPC and allowed Murray to rush for over 10 YPC.  Now they face the best running QB in the league.  On the flip side, the Bills have also transitioned to a heavier rushing attack this year but they are now facing a Baltimore defense that ranks #1 in the NFL giving up just 50 rushing YPG on 2.8 YPC.  The Ravens cannot afford to drop to 1-3 with 3 of their next 4 games on the road.  Lamar Jackson is 27-4 ATS in regular season games when favored by less than 3 points or an underdog.  This is a huge home game for Baltimore and we like them to win and cover.

#280 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -3.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This is a solid situational spot for the Cards at home.  They lost last weekend here vs Detroit and played very poorly on offense.  The Lions were a bit desperate as well coming off a home loss vs TB.  The prior week, Arizona destroyed the LA Rams at home 41-10 outgaining LA 7.9 YPP to just 4.7 YPP.  That’s the same Rams team that, while banged up, turned around and beat the 49ers last Sunday.  This will be Arizona’s 3rd straight home game prior to playing 3 of their next 4 on the road so an important game for them here.  Washington is making the long trip west on a short week after upsetting Cincinnati on Monday night 38-33.  The Commanders were outgained in the win 7.3 to 6.2 YPP and on the ground 6.2 YPC to 3.4 YPC.  Arizona’s offense should get back on track here facing a Washington defense that ranks 31st in YPP allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, 30th in PPG allowed, and dead last in 3rd down conversion rate allowed.  This is Washington’s 3rd road game in the first 4 weeks and we look for this young team to struggle after a win and now on a short week.  The Cards have already faced 2 high level opponents (Buffalo & Detroit) yet their YPP margin is a solid +0.5.  Washington, on the other hand, has been outgained on the year with a YPP margin of -0.7 which is 8th worst in the NFL despite their 2-1 record.  This is a huge home game for Arizona and we’ll call for them to win this one by more than a FG.

WNBA play on Las Vegas +4.5 at New York, 3 PM ET - The Aces went through the motions early in the season and didn’t play up to standards as the defending Champions. Recently though they’ve clearly flipped the switch and look like a team that can win it all again this season. Las Vegas is 11-4 SU their last 15 games, 6-3 SU on the road in that stretch +3.7PPG. Granted, New York is playing well down the stretch too with a 11-4 SU record in their last 15 games, but just 4-3 SU at home with an average +/- of +1.6PPG. These two team rate near even in both Offensive Net rating and Defensive Net rating since the Olympic break. Las Vegas won the Ship last season with a win on this floor and are more than capable of winning here again, especially when they have the best player on the floor in A’ja Wilson. With this being an afternoon game there will be little energy for this Liberty home game.

#271 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET -

The Bengals are 0-3 but they’ve outgained every opponent on YPP basis and they sit at 7th in the NFL in YPP margin.  This is an absolute must win for the Bengals as they cannot afford to drop to 0-4.  In their only other road game this season Cincy lost 26-25 @ Kansas City but had more yardage and better YPP numbers than the host Chiefs in that one.  KC got a late pass interference call on 4th and long vs Cincinnati that set them up for the game winning FG.  Last week the Bengals lost 38-33 vs Washington but once again, they completely outplayed the Commanders with 435 to 356 yards along with outgaining them by +1.1 YPP.  They are back at full strength offensively with WR Higgins back and they should big success vs a Carolina defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in total defense, YPP allowed, and 3rd down conversion percentage.  Carolina lost first 2 games (Saints & Chargers) by combined score of 73-13 and then made the switch last week to Andy Dalton at QB.  The Panthers looked much better and picked up their first win of the season.  However, we often see a team have a 1 game boost when switching QB’s with the team rallying.  They caught the Raiders in a rough spot as well after upsetting Baltimore on the road a week earlier despite getting drastically outplayed in the stats.  The entire problem for Carolina was not simply the QB situation.  They have won only 3 of their last 20 games and now facing a desperate team that many considered a Super Bowl contender prior to the season.  Cheap price here as well at -4.5.  If this game would have been played a few weeks ago it definitely would have been north of a TD and possibly double digits.  Bengals on Sunday.

#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON North Carolina +2.5 over Duke, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We were on James Madison last weekend vs UNC and picked up a solid win.  We’ll switch it up this Saturday and take the Heels getting points @ Duke.  Last week’s 70-50 loss for the Tar Heels was a bit deceiving.  The yardage with JMU was basically dead even (616 to 612) but UNC lost the turnover margin at -4 (5 turnovers for UNC and 1 for JMU).  Not only that, those turnovers turned into points for as the Dukes scored TD’s on a pick 6 and a blocked punt along with 2 other UNC giveaways that also turned into 2 touchdowns.  The defense was obviously shredded but prior to last weekend that unit had played well allowing just 15.6 PPG through their first 3 games.  The defense was embarrassed last week and we look for a huge effort on that side of the ball Saturday against a Duke offense that isn’t very explosive.  The Devils rank outside the top 90 in total offense, YPP offense, and rushing offense.  Duke is 4-0 but we haven’t been overly impressed.  They struggled to beat UConn at home a few weeks ago 26-21 and they were outrushed 4.8 YPC to 3.6 YPC in that game.  Last week they faced one of the worst teams in the nation, Middle Tennessee State, and while the final score looked solid (45-17 win) they only outgained the Blue Raiders by 45 yards.  MTSU won in the trenches as well outrushing Duke 4.2 YPC to 3.5 YPC but the Raiders had 4 turnovers.  UNC head coach Mack Brown apologized to his team after last week’s loss and they’ve rallied around him this week.  We expect a big effort from the Heels.  North Carolina has dominated this series winning 28 of the last 33 meetings.  They were a dog in only 4 of those 33 match ups and covered all 4.  We like UNC to win this game outright.

#166 ASA PLAY ON UAB +4.5 over Navy, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This is one of the best situational spots on the board in our opinion.  UAB had last week off so 2 full weeks to prepare for Navy’s offense which is key since this is not an offense most teams see on a weekly basis.  Navy, on the other hand, is coming off a big upset win over Memphis 56-44 last week and they have Air Force next week.  We were on Navy last week in that spot as Memphis was in a poor situation on the road for the 2nd straight week after upsetting Florida State a week earlier.  In that game, Memphis actually outgained the Middies by 94 yards and had 11 more first downs.  Prior to facing Memphis in a perfect spot last week, Navy had played FCS Bucknell and Temple, one of the worst FBS teams.  Now they take the road for the first time this season vs a team that really needs a win after losing @ Arkansas in a fairly close game 37-27 the week before their bye.  Despite their 1-2 record, UAB has outgained their opponents in YPG and YPP margin this season.  Their offense should do some damage vs a tired Navy defense that was on the field for a whopping 95 snaps last Saturday.  When these 2 met last season Navy was a home underdog and upset UAB.  Now they are laying points in the road just a year later which is too large of an adjustment according to our power ratings.  We like UAB here.

#134 ASA PLAY ON UConn -5.5 over Buffalo, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Buffalo is coming off a huge conference upset topping Northern Illinois last week as 14 point dogs.  They topped the Huskies 23-20 in OT despite getting outgained 359 to 184.  They caught NIU coming off a win over Notre Dame in their previous contest so a perfect spot for the Bulls to catch the Huskies.  After that huge win, Buffalo now goes on the road again in a somewhat less meaningful non-conference game @ Connecticut.  The Huskies are playing solid football right now coming off a 48-14 home win over FAU last weekend.  Dating back to the end of last year, UConn has won 4 of their last 6 games with their only losses coming @ Maryland and @ Duke.  The offense is very confident right now, especially at home where they’ve scored 111 points in 2 games this season.  The Huskies are averaging 6.4 YPP and are one of the better rushing teams in the nation 242 YPG rushing on 5.6 YPC.  The Buffalo offense (averaging just 4.5 YPP – 123rd in the nation) will have trouble keeping up in this one.  The offense can’t really hang their hat on anything as they rank 99th in rushing and 126th in passing.  The Bulls defense ranks 71st vs the run this season and could run out of gas in this one after being on the field for 85 plays and 36+ minutes in last week’s upset.  The Huskies have played the tougher schedule so far this year and they have a +125 YPG and +0.8 YPP differentials while Buffalo is -55 YPG and +0.2 YPP.  We think UConn is a bit undervalued right now because they haven’t been a very good program as of late.  Head coach Jim Mora Jr definitely has the Huskies headed in the right direction.

#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas State -5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both teams off losses last week but OSU’s was deceivingly close while KSU was the opposite.  Kansas State lost 38-9 as 7 point favorites at BYU (we were on the Cougars in that one).  Believe it or not, the Cats outgained BYU by +125 yards and outrushed them 228 to 92.  Three turnovers were a killer for KSU in that game.  The Wildcats led 6-0 with just over 2:00 minutes remaining in the first half.  4 minutes into the 2nd half (so a 6 minute span) BYU led 31-6 and had TD drives of 5, 29, 27 and 6 yards during that 6 minute span basically putting the game out of reach.  Now we get an angry Kansas State team at home that should dominate in the trenches.  They are averaging 240 yards on the ground on 6.5 YPC facing an Oklahoma State defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run.  KSU yards per carry differential (YPC offense minus YPC they allow on defense) is +3.7.  OSU’s YPC differential is -1.3 and they rank outside the top 100 both rushing on offense and stopping the run on defense as we mentioned above.  OSU looked like they gave Utah a battle last week losing 22-19.  Fact is the Cowboys were down 22-3 at home in that game with less than 6 minutes remaining.  They were outgained 457 to 285 and outrushed 250 to 48.  On top of that, Utah’s starting QB Rising didn’t play and the Utes started a freshman at QB and still dominated.  These two both have 3-1 record and have played a very similar strength of schedule, yet KSU has a YPP differential of +1.3 while OSU is -0.2.  Last time OSU visited Manhattan KS 2 years ago, they left with a 48-0 loss.  Last year the Wildcats were favored by 11.5 AT Oklahoma State and lost in a upset.  This year at home they are laying just -5 and we look for a dominating with for the home team. 

#107 ASA PLAY ON Washington +2.5 over Rutgers, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Huskies have played the tougher schedule to date and have the much better overall stats.  After 4 games, UW is 12th nationally in YPG and YPP margin outgaining their opponents by +220 YPG and by +3.3 YPP.  Compare that to Rutgers, who has played the much weaker schedule, with the Knights sitting at +125 YPG and +1.5 YPP.  Washington played their first Big 10 game last weekend and dominated Northwestern holding the Cats to 112 total yards on just 2.1 YPP in that 24-5 win.  Their lone loss came vs an undefeated Washington State team 24-19 in a game the Huskies outgained the Cougars 452 to 381 and were stopped at the 1-yard line which ended the game.  Rutgers is 3-0 but they’ve played a cupcake schedule – ranked 193rd strength of schedule by Sagarin who includes FCS teams – thus the Scarlet Knights slate this year is easier than a good number of FCS teams.  They opened the season with a win over FCS Howard and then took out Akron who is rated as the 4th worst FBS team per Sagarin.  Last week Rutgers upset Va Tech on the road 26-23.  However, the Hokies won the stat sheet averaging 5.9 YPP to 5.5 for Rutgers.  The problem was, VT had 3 turnovers which led to Rutgers running 77 offensive snaps to just 54 for the Hokies.  Even with that, the Knights couldn’t pull away and won on a late FG with under 2:00 minutes remaining.  Now they come home a bit overvalued with their 3-0 record.  The better team is getting points here (better YPP on both sides of the ball), if they can cope with the long travel spot, we think Washington will win this game outright.  

#106 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL -17.5 over Virginia Tech, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll need to watch the weather closely here with Hurricane Helene on the gulf side Thursday night which could affect the weather here.  Right now it looks like it should be OK with 10 to 15 MPH winds and not much, if any, rain during the game.  Va Tech has been a disappointment so far this season.  Tabbed as a team that could compete for the ACC title, they sit at just 2-2 with a road loss @ Vandy and home loss vs Rutgers.  They are 1-3 ATS with their only cover coming vs a bad Old Dominion team that has yet to win a game.  The Hokies are outside the top 65 in both total offense and total defense and their YPP margin is barely above water at +0.4.  Tonight they face a Miami team that ranks in the top 10 in both total offense (2nd) and total defense (10th) on the season.  The Canes YPP differential is 3rd best in the country at +4.4.  They have won each of their games by at least 24 points and they are winning by an average of +39 PPG.  That includes road wins @ Florida and @ USF.  Last week @ South Florida, a game we thought was very dangerous for the Canes, Miami simply dominated in their 50-15 win with almost 600 yards on 9.4 YPP.  That was vs a USF team that gave Alabama all they could handle on the road this year trailing just 13-12 in the 4th quarter before the Tide picked up some late TD’s.  VT will have big time struggles on offense here as they rely fairly heavily on the run.  They are not a great passing team ranking outside the top 90 in passing YPG, completions per game, and completion percentage.  Problem is, the Miami defense has been a brick wall holding opponents to 64 YPG rushing on 2.5 YPC, top 10 in both stats.  This line isn’t all that crazy as last year Miami was a 9 point favorite @ Va Tech and won.  That would mean this season we’d expect Miami to be around a 15 to 17 point favorite which is where they are + the Canes are light years better this year than last season.  We’re not sure that’s been factored in enough here.  Lay it with Miami on Friday Night.

ASA play on Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ NY Giants, 8:20 PM ET - We like the Cowboys to bounce back here off of two tough losses to the Saints and Ravens. New York meanwhile is off a win over the Browns as a big underdog. The Cowboys have owned this series with the Giants with a 13-1 SU record the last 14 meetings and an average +/- in those games of +16PPG. Dallas has covered the spread in six straight meetings versus New York. Last year in the two clashes the Cowboys won 40-0 and 49-17. They outgained the Giants 905/343 in total yards. Dallas was outplayed badly by the Saints two weeks ago, then caught a desperate 0-2 Ravens team last week that had to win. New York was thoroughly beaten by the Vikings in Week 1 then lost to the Commanders, and beat a bad Cleveland team last week. Despite playing much better competition, the Yards Per Play differential is near even for these two teams. The Cowboys have a negative YPP number of minus -0.7. The Giants are minus -0.5YPP. The Dallas D is soft in the middle, but the Giants have a below average rushing attack. New York’s pass defense will be hard pressed to stop the Cowboys and if this game turns into a shootout the G-men don’t have a shot at covering.

#477 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 over Buffalo Bills, Monday at 7:30 PM ET -Historically teams that start the season with an 0-2 record hit over 60% ATS in game 3 dating back 10 years and yesterday (Sunday) those teams went 6-1 SU & ATS with the Titan being the only loser.  Jacksonville falls into that category on Monday night and we’re getting nearly a full TD with the Jags.  They have lost their 2 games by a combined 8 points and they’ve outgained their opponents this season +0.2 YPP.  The Jags are also dominating in the trenches 5.4 YPC to 3.8 YPC which will lead to wins in most cases.  This Jax defense is undervalued in our opinion and they match up nicely vs this run heavy Buffalo team.  The Bills are only averaging 21 pass attempts per game (31st in the NFL) but they will have trouble running on this Jags front 7 that allows barely 100 YPG on the ground and 3.8 YPG which ranks 8th best in the league.  The Bills offense has been uber efficient averaging 1 point for every 9 yards gained (2nd in the NFL) which isn’t sustainable.  Jacksonville on the other hand has averaged 1 points for every 19.7 yards gained which is very poor and we would expect to improve.  The Jaguars have definitely had their chances on offense moving inside their opponents 35 yard line 9 times on their 21 possessions this year but have only 3 TD’s and 35 total points to show for it.  Last week they outgained the Browns by +1.3 YPP and outrushed them 6 YPC to 4.3 YPC and somehow lost.  The Bills, on the other hand, blew out Miami but were outgained by over 100 yards in the game.  They benefitted from 3 Dolphin turnovers and Miami QB Tagovailoa went out with a concussion midway through the 3rd quarter.  Jax has faced Buffalo twice in the last 3 years and won both games as an underdog including 25-20 last year outgaining the Bills by 85 yards.  This desperate Jags team gives it all on Monday and stays within the number.

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun -5 vs. Indiana Fever, 3 PM ET - The Fever are young and making their first playoff appearance in 12 years. None of the players that get significant playing time have ever been in the playoffs. Connecticut is a veteran team that plays great defense and will draw a solid home crowd, with most being their fans and not Caitlyn Clarks. The Sun were 14-6 SU at home this season with an average +- of +5.1PPG. Indiana was 8-12 SU away from home with an average differential of minus -4.7PPG. This Sun team has the best Defensive Net rating in the league at 94.1 and they’ve held 16 of twenty opponents to less than 80 points at home this season. Indiana is slightly better than the Sun in Offensive Net rating but far worse defensively with the 2nd worst Defensive Net rating in the league. You win in the playoffs with defense and the Fever don’t play any. Connecticut has won 3 of four against the Fever this season and they get this series opening win by double digits.

#464 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans are backed into a corner here with an 0-2 record and they are in absolute must win mode. They could easily be 2-0 as they outgained each of their first 2 opponents on a YPP basis but they are -4 in turnover margin which is why they are winless. The Titans actually sit 8th in the NFL in YPP margin ahead of this Green Bay team. The Packers starting QB Love is listed as questionable for this one but we can’t imagine they’ll take a chance a play him. He’s not 100% and the Packers have a much bigger game on deck with division rival Minnesota. Our guess is he will return for that match up next Sunday. If that’s the case GB will send Malik Willis out again this week. Last week head coach Matt LaFleur asked very little of Willis as the Packers went run heavy with 53 rushing attempts and just 14 pass attempts. That plan was successful last week vs an Indy defense that has been terrible stopping the run this year already allowing almost 500 yards on the ground in two games. That strategy won’t work vs Tennessee who has an impressive front 7 and has limited their opponents to just 92 YPG rushing and ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense allowing just 206 total YPG. The Titans will take away GB’s run and force Willis to beat them through the air. This Tennessee teams knows what Willis can and can’t do and we expect them to shut down GB’s offense. NFL 0-2 teams in week 3 are 52-33 ATS (61%) over the last decade and Tennessee falls into that mode here. It’s their last hurrah as 0-3 teams almost never make the playoffs. In fact since 2003 there have been 103 teams to start 0-3 and only 1 made the playoffs (2018 Houston Texans). Tennessee is better than their record and GB has a bigger game on deck next week. Titans win and cover.

#398 ASA PLAY ON Navy +9.5 vs. Memphis, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Navy is the play here as a rested, a potential rush doubling underdog, at home, facing a Memphis team off a HUGE win over Florida State. Navy is once again one of the best rushing offenses in the nation at 298 rushing YPG. Overall, the Mid’s are averaging 6.9YPP (19th) while allowing just 4.8YPP defensively (48th). Of course, we need to temper our enthusiasm with the Navy’s overall numbers as they have faced Temple and Bucknell. Memphis is 3-0 SU/ATS with wins over North Alabama, Troy and Florida State. The Tigers rushing D is ranked 13th allowing just 69RYPG but the two FBS teams they faced rank 100th and 126th in rushing offense. Preparing for the Navy hybrid Wing-T offense is not an easy thing to do and Memphis isn’t in a great schedule situation off their upset win (Tigers HC called it “monumental” and “historic”). Last season when these same two games got together in Memphis, the Tigers were 11-point favorites and won by 4-points despite getting outgained in the game. Memphis has been a road favorite just 9 times since 2020 and they have covered 4 of those games. Navy as an underdog is 19-15 ATS since 2020.

#329 ASA PLAY ON James Madison +10.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Looks like UNC may start their 3rd string QB in this one, Jacolby Criswell, as they search for a passing game.  Criswell entered last week’s game in favor of 2nd stringer Harrell who is struggling to get anything going through the air.  Original starting QB Johnson had a season ending injury in their season opener @ Minnesota.  Last week’s FCS opponent, NC Central, gave UNC everything they could handle despite the final score.  It turned into a blowout win but UNC led just 17-10 in the 4th quarter.  That’s an NC Central team that lost 41-19 vs Elon a week prior.  JMU gets their shot at a high profile opponent here and they had last week off to get ready for this one.  The Dukes should be able to focus on the run defensively in this one vs a one dimensional Tar Heel offense.  UNC ranks outside the top 100 in passing YPG, passing attempts per game and completions per game.  With very little passing attack, we think it will be tough for the Heels to pull away in this game.  JMU steps in with a 2-0 record and these two both played Charlotte this season so we have a solid comparison point.  JMU played @ Charlotte, won by 23 points and outgained the 49ers by and impressive +2.9 yards per play.  UNC played host to Charlotte, won by 18 and outgained the 49ers by just +0.4 YPP.  The Tar Heels remain overvalued by the markets with an 0-7-1 ATS run (vs FBS opponents) losing those games by 75 combined points vs the number.  The heels are also just 1-8 ATS their last 9 games when posted as a double digit favorite.  UNC has a huge game on deck vs in-state rival Duke and we like James Madison to keep this one close.  Take the points.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream +1.5 at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - The Liberty have locked up the #1 seed in the playoffs and will rest starters tonight against Atlanta. The Dream however need to win to have a shot at grabbing the 8th and final spot in the postseason. One thing we’ve learned in the WNBA this season is that depth is typically a concern for teams. New York has a few players that come off the bench and contribute but without their four starters of Stewart, Ionescu, Jones and Laney-Hamilton they lose 65.5PPG and the bulk of their rebounding, assists etc…Atlanta put themselves in position to make the playoffs with two straight wins over Chicago and Washington who were the other two contending teams for that coveted 8th and final spot. With the Liberty expected to sit everyone we will take Atlanta and we expect them to win this game outright.

ASA WNBA top play on Las Vegas Aces -7.5 at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - This number opened with Vegas -4.5 and was quickly bet up to the current number once the news of Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor were out tonight. Loyd leads the Storm in scoring at 19.7PPG while Magbegor leads the team in rebounding at 8.0. In the WNBA depth is typically a big concern for teams and these two key pieces missing will be too much for the Storm to overcome. This is a big game for both teams as they currently sit #4 (Vegas) and #5 (Storm) in the playoff standings with only 1-game separating the two teams. The significance is that the #4 seed hosts the first round series against the #5 seed. Las Vegas has looked like the team that won it all last season in recent weeks with a 7-1 SU record in their last eight games. In that 8 game stretch they have an average +/- of +9.6PPG, best in the league. Every win in that 8-game span has come against a current playoff bound team or one in contention. Seattle has won 4 in a row and 5 of their last six games, but their last 3 wins have come against the Sparks and Wings who are the two worst teams in the league and all 3 of those games were close. Las Vegas has dominated this series with a 9-1 SU/ 7-3 ATS record in the last ten meetings. LV won by 5-points on this court earlier this season when the Storm were at full strength. Today the margin is much more against this depleted Seattle roster.

#290 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -6.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Bears showed everyone in week 1 just how explosive they are going to be with rookie QB Caleb Williams under center. Chicago mustered 11 first downs, 84 yards rushing and 64 net yards passing. Williams was 14 of 29 for 93 yards. The Bears blocked a punt for a TD and returned an INT for a touchdown. Houston went into Indianapolis and dominated the Colts who were lucky to cover that game late. The Texans amassed 417 total yards at 5.8YPP, dominated the time of possession by 20 full minutes, were 100% in red zone trips and scored 29-points. RB Joe Mixon of the Texans had a huge rushing game with 159 yards and a touchdown. The Colts and Bears run a similar defensive scheme so expect Mixon/Texans running game to get untracked in a hurry. Once the run game is established QB Stroud and the passing attack can exploit a Bears pass defense that allowed the 25th most passing YPG in 2023. Houston had an average +/- at home last season of +6.9PPG. The Bears road differential was minus -6.6PPG.  Chicago lost 5 road games last season by 7 or more points. As long as this line is -7 or less we are on the Texans.

#268 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys -5.5 over New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET -

New Orleans looked great last week at home but their opponent may have had a lot to do with that.  Carolina simply looked inept on both sides of the ball.  The Saints scored 47 points on just 379 total yards for a ridiculous average of 1 point for every 8 yards gained.  Part of that was field position with New Orleans having scoring drives (TD or FG) of 1, 9, 16, and 36 yards.  QB Carr has zero pressure and completed 82% of his passes because of that.  That won’t happen this week vs a Dallas defensive front that is among the best in the NFL.  The Cowboys had 6 sacks last week vs Cleveland and finished in the top 8 last season in sack percentage.  They’ll be facing a Saints offensive line that was solid last week but came into the season ranked 31st per PFF so maybe an aberration last week vs a poor team.  Dallas was also impressive last week and played a much better opponent and they were on the road.  They dominated the Browns 33-17 holding Cleveland’s offense to just 3.3 YPP.  The Browns scored a TD with under 30 seconds left in that one to make it look more respectable than it actually was.  Now we get Dallas at home where they’ve been dominant winning 16 straight regular season games by an average margin of +17.5 PPG.  Only 3 of those 16 straight regular season wins came by less than 6 points which is today’s spread.  Dallas outscored their opponents at home by 172 points last season which was tops in the NFL.  As you might expect with those numbers, Dak Prescott’s home and road splits last season were drastically different.  At home he completed 73% of his passes for almost 2,500 yards, 22 TD’s and just 3 picks.  He should have lots of success vs a New Orleans secondary that might be without their top CB Lattimore.  Cowboys by double digits

#186 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -16.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This ain’t the Air Force team of the last few seasons.  Not even close.  The Falcons lost nearly everyone from last year’s team and rank outside the top 100 in returning yardage, returning tackles, and returning offensive line starts.  The problem is, when Air Force loses that much talent, they aren’t the team that just pays kids to come in from the portal and replace them.  They are going with what they have and it hasn’t been pretty so far this season.  The Falcons struggled in week 1 to beat FCS Merrimack and AF was actually outgained 3.8 YPP to 3.4 YPP.  Even more concerning for heavy running Air Force, they were outgained on the ground 4.2 YPG to 3.0 YPC.  That was vs a Merrimack team that turned around and played a bad UConn team last week and lost 63-17 getting outgained 625 to 279 vs the Huskies.  AF played San Jose State in week 2 and lost again averaging only 3.0 YPC.  For a heavy running team that has completed only 13 passes in 2 games to average only 3.0 YPC is a big problem.  Now they face a Baylor team that is far more talented and deep compared to Merrimack and San Jose State.  The Bears should be hungry here coming off a 23-12 loss @ Utah who many feel is the best team in the Big 12 this season.  On top of that, they lost to Air Force in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl giving them a little extra motivation.  Baylor QB Finn, transfer from Toledo, will give the AF defense big problems with his running ability, after the Falcons faced 2 non-mobile QB’s in the first 2 weeks.  Baylor is the much more athletic and deeper team here which will be key as this one is being played in 90+ degree temps in Waco.  Baylor wears down AF and rolls to a big win.

#138 ASA PLAY ON Washington -5.5 over Washington State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This game is in Seattle at the Seahawks home stadium.  Washington lost a ton of production off of last year’s team that played for the National Championship but they’ve been flying under the radar so far this season.  New HC Jedd Fisch, who led Arizona to a 10-3 record last year, and new QB Rogers who transferred from Mississippi State, have this team clicking early in the year.  They are currently 8th in the nation in YPP differential at +4.5.  They handled one of the top team in FCS, Weber State, 35-3 and outgained them by 230 yards.  Last week they beat Eastern Michigan 30-9 but the stats were much worse than that with the Huskies outgained the Eagles by 300 yards.  Wazzou is in a similar situation losing nearly all of their production from last year (113th in returning yards & 109th in returning tackles).  The Cougars beat Portland State (bad FCS team) to open the season and then beat Texas Tech in Pullman last week.  Tech had a multitude of key players that had to sit out that game including top RB Boyd along with a number of defensive starters and the Red Raiders had 4 turnovers in that game.  While Washington and Washington State haven’t played a common opponent, let’s focus on their FCS opponents in week 1.  That’s because those 2 opponents played each other in week 2.  As we mentioned, the Huskies outgained Weber State by 230 yards in week 1.  Wazzou outgained Portland State by 185 yards in week 1.  Weber State played Portland State last week and rolled to an easy 43-16 win outgaining PSU by 300 yards!  You get the point.  Washington has covered 16 of the last 23 meetings in this rivalry along with 12 of the last 14 SU.  Huskies get another won and cover in Seattle on Saturday.