#887 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois Chicago +1.5 over Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 PM ET - Our power ratings have UIC a slight favorite here so value with the Flames as an underdog. They’ve been undervalued all season with a 6-1 mark ATS. UIC as played the much tougher schedule (ranked 118th SOS by KenPom) having faced 4 teams (half of their games) vs teams ranked inside the top 180. Jax State has played the 317th ranked SOS per KenPom and prior to this game vs Illinois Chicago they have played a total of ONE team vs a team ranked inside the top 180 and that was a 13 point loss. Per KenPom’s ratings, the Flames will be the best team Jacksonville State has faced this season (UIC ranked 124th) and the Gamecocks have already lost 4 games vs teams ranked outside the top 200. That includes 2 home game losses vs team ranked 200 or lower. The Flames have had a full week off after back to back losses UNC Greensboro (by 1 point) and vs Illinois State (by 5 points) so we expect them to be very focused on this one. Despite playing the tougher schedule, Illinois Chicago is better on both ends of the court. The Flames average 1.03 PPP offensively while allowing just 0.99 PPP on defense compared to Jax State who averaged 1.01 PPP while giving up 1.03 PPP. UIC has been fantastic defensively all season ranking 15th in eFG% allowed and 2nd nationally guarding the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 23% from deep. They should have their way on that end of the court vs a Gamecock offense that is outside the top 200 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, 3 point FG%, FT%, and scoring. We’ll take the better team getting points with motivation off 2 straight losses.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 5 PM ET - *NOTE THE EARLY TIPOFF* - We like the Bucks big here in this In Season Tourney game. The Pacers are coming off a HUGE home win over the Celtics and fed off the energy from the home crowd. Now the young Pacers are playing on a neutral court against a motivated Bucks team. Milwaukee is starting to figure things out with their new lineup and the addition of Dame Lillard. They beat a very good Knicks team the other night handily at home by 24-points. The Bucks are 10-2 SU their last twelve games while the Pacers check in with a 5-5 SU record their last ten games. This is the second meeting of the season for these two teams with the Pacers upsetting the Bucks at home by 2-points as a 1-point underdog. Milwaukee has beaten this franchise in 8 of the last ten meetings overall. Both teams are highly efficient on the offensive end of the court ranking 1st and 6th in OEFF but the Bucks hold an advantage on the defensive end of the court as the Pacers rank 29th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency. Milwaukee also defends the 3-point line well by holding opponents to 36.3% shooting which is 13th best in the NBA. Conversely, the Pacers allow foes to make 39.1% of their 3PT attempts which ranks 28th and the Bucks own the 6th best 3PT% in the league. Fear the Deer!

#730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Iowa -2 over Richmond, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened with Richmond favored and quickly flipped to Northern Iowa as a small favorite and we agree. It hasn’t moved enough in our opinion as we’re getting a veteran, desperate Panther team at home at near a pick-em. The reason we’re getting some solid value on UNI is because their record is just 2-6 so far this season. They’ve played the 20th most difficult schedule in the nation according to KenPom while Richmond, who has a 5-3 record, has played the 270th most difficult schedule. The Panthers bring back 4 starters and 91% of their minutes from last season and 4 of their 7 Division 1 opponents currently rank inside the top 100. They have a solid top 100 win over Stanford 73-51 and nearly beat Texas Tech losing by 2 points. Richmond, on the other hand, has played only 2 teams currently inside the top 125 and lost to both (Boston College & Wichita State). Those were also the Spiders only 2 road games this season losing both by 7 and 12 points. Four of Richmond’s five wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 250 and 3 of those wins were vs teams ranked 315 or lower. The Spiders played host to this match up last year as 6 points favorites and won by 13. However, they lost nearly everyone of note from last year’s team with only 1 starter returning. UNI is off a tough OT loss on Saturday @ Evansville and their last home game was their worst outing of the season (loss to Belmont) so we expect a huge effort in this one. If this game was played a few weeks ago we’d be laying a much larger number with Northern. Take the Panthers at home.

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Raptors here and predict a double-digit win by the home team. Miami is dealing with two key injuries to Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo which has made them an ‘average’ team at best. The Heat have a positive net rating but have faced the 21st easiest schedule in the NBA. Toronto on the other hand has a slight negative differential but they have faced the 5th toughest schedule in the league this season. Miami is 6-6 SU on the road this season with a +1.8PPG differential. Toronto is 5-4 SU at home with an average MOV of +3.8PPG. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, but the Heat are clearly not at full strength here. The Raptors are coming off a home loss to the Knicks but had won 3 straight at home by 7, 13 and 29-points. Toronto owned Miami last season by winning 3 of the four regular season meetings SU, covering all four. The Raptors are 31-21 ATS at home since the start of last season with an average MOV of +4PPG. We like Toronto at home in this one.

ASA Top Play on 10* NY Knicks +5.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - The Bucks are still going through the growing pains with their new lineup and the addition of Damian Lillard. Milwaukee is still one of the best teams in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.187 points per possession but defensively they rank 20th after finishing 4th a year ago. New York owns the 8th best DEFF rating allowing 1.108PPP while also ranking 11th in OEFF. The Knicks also have the better overall point differential in the league at plus +3.8PPG, the Bucks average +2.9PPG. New York is one of 12 teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.5PPG. Milwaukee is 8-1 SU at home but their average margin of victory is only +2.7PPG. That is a significant drop from last years average of +5.9PPG at home for the Bucks which was the 6th best in the league. These two teams met in early November on this floor with the Bucks winning 110-105. Since that loss the Knicks have won 10 of their last thirteen games. The last three meetings have been decided by 6-points or less. We expect this game to go down to the wire and will grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - This In Season tournament starts tonight and has two great matchups with one of them being this game between the Pelicans and Kings. The Pelicans are at full strength right now and currently undervalued by the oddsmakers. New Orleans beat this Kings team twice at home in mid-November by 36 and 5-points but played without starting PG CJ McCollum in both. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram carried the scoring load with 105 combined total points in the two games. New Orleans in their last five games own the 12th best offensive efficiency rating and the 4th best defensive efficiency rating. In comparison, the Kings are 13th in OEFF and 16th in DEFF. The Pelicans have thrived as an underdog this season with a 8-3-1 ATS record while the Kings are just 4-7 ATS as a favorite. New Orleans has covered 5 of the last seven meetings with the Kings and in this tourney opener we like the Dog and the points.

#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville -10 over Cincinnati, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bengals offense will have big time problems generating anything in this game with Joe Burrow on the sidelines. Last week vs Pittsburgh the Bengals back up QB Browning had decent numbers (227 yards passing) but he had a number of turnover worthy plays that didn’t turn into turnovers. He threw 1 interception but that could have easily been 3 or 4. The Bengals scored 10 points vs the Steelers and we don’t see them generating any more in this game vs a solid Jacksonville defense (5th DVOA defense). Here’s the problem with Cincinnati’s offense in this game. Not only are the playing an inexperienced back up QB but they can’t run the ball at all (32nd in the NFL) which puts even more pressure on Browning to be perfect. The Jags run defense is 4th in the NFL allowing just 87 YPG so we don’t see Cincinnati’s run offense magically coming alive in this game. On the other side of the ball, the Jags are playing well offensively. They’ve put up 58 points the last 2 weeks combined but it could have been more. Last week vs Houston they averaged 6.5 YPP in a 24-21 win but they crossed into Houston territory on 8 of their 11 possessions. Jacksonville had 445 total yards but averaged only 1 point for every 18.5 yards gained which was well below their season average of 1 point every 14.5 yards gained entering last week. If they hit their yards per point average in that game they would have scored 31 points. Now they face a Cincy defense that ranks dead last in the NFL YPP allowed, 31st in total defense, 29th in rush defense, and 26th in pass defense. Last week Pittsburgh only scored 16 points on this defense but also had over 400 yards. Prior to last week Cincinnati had allowed 30+ points in their previous 2 games. This defense also ranks near the bottom of the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate which should allow the Jags to keep drives alive in this one. Jacksonville has played a tough home slate already facing SF, KC, and Houston, but in their home games vs lower tier opponents they rolled Indianapolis by 17 and Tennessee by 20. We see a similar outcome here. Lay it.

#467 ASA PLAY ON 8* San Francisco -3 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Eagles have been outgained by at least 98 yards in four straight games, and they’ve won each one. The Bills outgained them by 127 yards, and the Eagles defense couldn’t get off the field. Philly is 7-1 in one-score games, with five of those coming against teams at .500 or worse. The Eagles were trailing in the 4th quarter in 4 of last 6 games and they’ve been trailing at halftime in 5 games and won all 5. They’ve been very fortunate to say the least. Despite their 10-1 record, Philly’s overall numbers aren’t that impressive. They are only outgaining their opponents by +25 YPG and their YPP differential is barely above water at +0.2. San Fran has 2 more losses with a record of 8-3 but their numbers are much better with a YPG differential of +90 and a very solid YPP differential of +1.7. The point differential comparison is even more telling. Despite 2 more losses the Niners point differential is +140 which is more than double that of the Eagles point differential which is +64. Total season DVOA San Francisco ranks 2nd in the NFL while Philly coming in at 9th. The 49ers are better on both sides of the ball ranking 1st in offensive DVOA and 6th defensively compared to the Eagles 7th and 17th respectively. Philly has had 4 straight down to the wire games vs Washington, Dallas, KC, and Buffalo while SF has rolled up 3 double digit wins in a row and they have extra time to prepare here having faced Seattle on Thanksgiving Day. This one sets up really nicely for the 49ers to win on the road. We’ll lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Texans -3 vs Denver Broncos, 1:00 PM ET - We have lost value in this game as the number crossed -3 but we still like the Texans in this situation as long as they are under -4. The Broncos have won 5 straight games and certainly played better but we aren’t sold yet. Four of those games came at home and two of those wins came by 3-total points. They were also outgained in four of those five wins. Houston was on a bit of a heater themselves with 3 straight wins prior to last weeks huge loss to the Jaguars. The Texans with CJ Stroud have been a huge surprised this season with a 6-5 SU record with all six wins coming in the last nine games. These teams have identical records, yet the Texans rank 12th in overall DVOA while the Broncos are 22nd. Houston is 12th in offensive DVOA, Denver 12th, the Texans are 20th in defensive DVOA, the Broncos are 32nd. The Texans are averaging 6.0 yards per play which is the 4th best number in the league. Houston is 6th in yards per game and 2nd in passing yards per game at 276. The Broncos defense allows 388YPG which is 30th, give up 6.3YPP (31st) and give up the 23rd most passing YPG. Denver wants to run the football with the 8th best rush offense, but Houston stops the run extremely well allowing 3.6 yards per rush which is the 3rd best number in the NFL. Denver has only played 4 road games and they go to Houston where the Texans have won 4 of their last five. The Broncos run comes to an end here.

#321 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville +1.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 8 PM ET- Florida State struggled last week @ Florida but knocked off the Gators 24-15 in a game they trailed 12-0 late in the 2nd quarter. Despite the win the Noles were outgained in the game and had only 90 yards rushing on 2.9 YPC compared to 146 yards rushing for the Gators. In their first game after losing starting QB Travis the offense was not impressive. 2nd string QB Rodemaker was underwhelming completing less than 50% of his passes for only 134 yards vs a team that didn’t even qualify for a bowl game. He is dealing with a concussion issue and may not play in this game, if so FSU has 2 very inexperienced QB’s behind Rodemaker. Louisville’s defense as a whole is very good (top 20 nationally) but their run defense is the strength of that unit allowing only 96 YPG on 3.3 YPC (12th best run defense in the country). If FSU struggles to run as they did vs Florida, that puts this game on the back of Rodemaker which will make it tough. The Cards are coming off a loss vs in state rival Kentucky getting outscored 17-7 in the 4th quarter losing 38-31. U of L outgained the Wildcats 403 to 289 in that loss but had 3 turnovers, which led directly to 10 Kentucky points. The Cats also had a 100 yard kick return for TD which was too much to overcome. The Cards are 10-2 on the season and in their 2 losses they outgained their opponents by a combined 833 to 577. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedule and their YPG differential is nearly the same. The difference is FSU did their damage for all but 1 game with their high level QB Travis under center. With him out, we give Louisville the edge here. As an undefeated team that absolutely had to win this game to have any consideration for the CFP, the Seminoles have all the pressure on them in this game. We like the Cards in Charlotte on Saturday night.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The Magic are absolutely cooking right now with 9 straight wins and an overall 14-5 SU record for the season. The last team to beat this Magic teams was this Nets team back on November 14th. Brooklyn catches the Magic in a favorable scheduling situation here as Orlando is playing their second leg of a back to back. Orlando beat Washington last night and will also be playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in seven days. Brooklyn is rested here with their last game coming on Nov. 30th, a home loss which makes this situation even better. The Nets are 3-1 SU their last four games and are finally getting healthy with five of their top six players available tonight. These teams have a similar net rating by our metrics but the Nets have played our 11th toughest schedule compared to the Magics 28th rated. We like the Nets advantage with their 2nd best 3-point percentage shooting versus the Magic’s 17th ranked 3PT% defense. Orlando typically takes advantage of teams by forcing turnovers and turning them into points, but the Nets are 11th in TO’s so they won’t give the Magic that edge. The Nets beat this team at home in mid-November 124-104 and we are betting on a similar outcome today.

#680 ASA TOP PLAY ON Toledo -3.5 over George Mason, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We like this spot for a solid Toledo team, coming off 3 straight losses, and finally back at home where they normally do damage. The Rockets are one of the top few programs in the MAC with 3 consecutive 20+ win seasons and a 77-28 SU record since the start of the 2021 season. At home they’re nearly unbeatable with a 42-4 SU their last 46 home games. The Rockets have played a very tough schedule to date (77th SOS) and they have lost 3 straight, all to top 75 teams on a neutral court, making this home game very important. Those 3 losses came by 2, 6, and 8 points and they have now had a full week off to stew about their losses and make corrections heading into this home game vs George Mason. The Patriots step into this game with a 6-1 record but are overvalued due to their poor strength of schedule (319th). Four of their seven opponents so far this season are currently ranked outside the top 200 and they have yet to play a true road game. George Mason did play 2 neutral site games losing to Charlotte by 5 and barely getting by South Dakota State by 2 points, both teams ranked lower than this Toledo team per KenPom. The Patriots had a solid 20-13 season last year but they had to replace much of their roster with only 1 starter and 26% of their minutes returning this season. On top of that HC English moved on and is now the head man at Providence and he took 2 of Mason’s top players with him. This is a rematch from last year when George Mason pulled the upset at home as a 3 point dog hitting 51% of their shots in the process. Now we’re getting Toledo at home, at basically the same number, in a perfect situation. Lay the small spread here with the Rockets at home.

#882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cal State Fullerton -4.5 over North Dakota, Friday at 9 PM ET - North Dakota steps into this game with a 6-1 record, however they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country thus far. They’ve faced only 1 team ranked inside the top 280 and that was Iowa and they lost that game by 42 points. The Fighting Hawks are in a very tough situational spot as well playing their 4th game in 7 days. They played in Conway, Arkansas on Saturday and Sunday, rushed home to face Concordia College of Minnesota on Tuesday and now they are on the West Coast a few days later. CS Fullerton has a 2-4 record but they’ve played the much tougher schedule. They’ve already faced 4 teams ranked 115th or higher and every team they’ve played is ranked higher than everyone on North Dakota’s schedule so far not named Iowa. The Titans have played only 1 home game the entire season prior to tonight and that was a 30 point win. Titan Gym is a tough place for opposing teams to visit as CSF has a record of 23-4 SU at home since the start of the 2022 season. Despite their sub .500 record and playing the much tougher schedule, the Titans PPP differential is actually better than North Dakota’s signaling some solid value on the home team. This is also a revenger from last season when CSF traveled to North Dakota and lost as a 5.5 point favorite. Now we’re laying the same number with them as home as the perception of each team is off due to their overall records. Half of the Fighting Hawks 6 wins have come by 2 points or less so they could be sitting with a much different record at this point. They are also one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the nation (348th) and one of the worst at defending the arc (349th). We’ll lay the number with Cal State Fullerton and look for a solid cover on Friday night.

#305 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Oregon -9.5 over Washington, Saturday at 8 PM ET - There is a reason the team that has 1 loss on the season is favored by nearly double digits over the undefeated team. On top of that, the favored team in this game lost to the undefeated team this year yet still is a hefty chalk. We’ve been saying for weeks this Washington team is trending down and has been since they beat Oregon 36-33 back in mid October. The Huskies have now been outgained in 5 of their last 7 games including last week’s 24-21 home win over Washington State. The Huskies needed a last second FG to pull that one off and they barely had 300 total yards of offense vs a Wazzu defense that came into the game 83rd nationally in total defense. Even in their win over the Ducks this season, Washington had 7 fewer first downs and they were outgained by 125 yards and that was when the Huskies were clicking on all cylinders. They are just 2-6 ATS their last 8 games and the defense has fallen all the way to 84th nationally allowing over 400 total YPG. They’ve won 1 game in Pac 12 play by more than 10 points so this team has been flirting with disaster but remains undefeated. Meanwhile the Ducks defense ranks in the top 15 nationally and has allowed 19 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Since their loss to Washington, the Ducks have won 6 in a row with 5 of those coming by at least 14 points. Despite having 1 less win than UW in Pac 12 play (Washington 9-0 and Oregon 8-1) the Ducks point differential in league play is +225 compared to +72 for Washington! Oregon also averages over 100 YPG more than Washington in conference play while allowing over 100 less than the Huskies in Pac 12 games. Oregon is the much better and more complete team right now and with 1 loss already, if they get a chance to pour it on they will do just that in their last attempt to make College Football’s Final 4. No holding back in this one. We like the Ducks by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys -8.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 PM ET - Being a professional sports bettor for over 30 years makes it very difficult to lay the points with Dallas here as this play has ‘public’ written all over it. We will make an exception though and don’t feel this line is high enough yet after opening with Dallas minus -6 or -7. The Cowboys at home have put up an average of 31.5PPG and have margins of victory of over 20PPG in 5 wins. The Dallas offense at home averages 7.0 yards per play which is 7th best in the league and total over 377YPG. Dak Prescott and the offense have the #1 ranked completion percentage at home at 70.3% and average the 4th most passing YPG at home. Seattle has taken a turn for the worse this season after a solid start and have lost 3 of their last four games. The Seahawks road numbers are especially bad as they are averaging just 10.6PPG in their last three road contests and two of those came against below average defenses of the Rams and Bengals. Seattle’s offense is below average in most key categories including total YPG, rushing and passing yards per game. Thursday, they face a Dallas D that is 3rd in yards per game allowed, yards per play allowed and give up just 16.8PPG which is 4th best. The Cowboys have won 13 straight home games and have scored 38+ in four straight in AT&T Stadium.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -7.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Hawks are coming off two straight losses to the Celtics and Cavaliers and now step down in talent to face the Spurs. This game becomes much more important for the Hawks off those two losses with a road date against the Bucks looming. As far as the Spurs are concerned, they have lost 12 straight games and even Wemby can’t save this team this season. Maybe politics and other concerns have damped Coach Popovich’s competitive drive? No matter what the issues are, we do know this. The Spurs own the 3rd worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -12.4PPG. At home they are losing by an average of -8.3PPG. They rank 29th in offensive efficiency and 19th in DEFF. In comparison, the Hawks allow 1.238 points per possession (27th) but they beat teams offensively by averaging 1.246PPP which is 3rd best in the NBA. In six of their last seven home games the Spurs have lost by 7 or more points. Atlanta recently beat the Wizards on the road by 28-points as a 9.5 point favorite. The Wiz and Spurs are similar teams and we expect another double digit win by the visitor in this one.

#747 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana +4.5 over Samford, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We have this game power rated dead even @ Samford so we’ll take the points. Louisiana is the better team and they’ve played the tougher schedule so far. The Rajin Cajuns are 5-2 with their 2 setbacks coming vs teams both rated higher than this Samford squad. ULL lost @ Toledo, the highest rated team in the MAC, by 9 points but Louisiana led that game by 16 midway through the 2nd half. Louisiana gathered only 3 points from the FT line in that game while Toledo scored 20 from the stripe which was obviously the difference. The Cajuns shot better from inside and outside the arc in that game but were done in by 10 more personal fouls. Their other loss was vs Wright State by 6 and the Raiders shot lights out in that game hitting 56% from the field. They’ve since won 3 in a row and are taking on a Samford team that has played a ridiculously easy schedule thus far. The Bulldogs were rolled in their first 2 games vs Purdue (lost by 53) and VCU (lost by 10) and they’ve since won 5 straight games all vs teams ranked 293 or lower per KenPom. Samford has played the 346th easiest schedule and yet they have the same points per possession differential as Louisiana who has played the much tougher slate. Despite playing the tougher schedule the Cajuns are the much better shooting team (49th overall shooting % and 11th three point %) and they’ve mad 78% of their FT’s. Samford’s defense ranks 250th defending the arc and they foul a lot (23% of opponents points from the stripe) which doesn’t match up well with ULL. On the other end of the court Samford relies heavily on the 3 point shot but will be facing a Louisiana team that has allowed just 25% from deep (15th best nationally). We give Louisiana a great shot to win this game outright but if not, at worst it should go to the wire so we’ll grab the points.

#677 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tennessee +2.5 over North Carolina, Wednesday at 7:15 PM ET - We really like this spot for a very good Tennessee team coming off back to back losses in Hawaii one week ago. Those losses were to Purdue (by 4) and Kansas (by 8) who are 2 of the top 3 teams in the nation in KenPom’s power ratings. The Vols have also already faced Syracuse (in Hawaii) and played @ Wisconsin (both double digit wins) in what has been a very tough schedule thus far. On the other side, UNC has played only 1 team ranked inside KenPom’s top 45 teams and that was a loss to Villanova. It’s also very possible the Heels will be without one of their top offensive players, Cormac Ryan (11 PPG), as he injured his ankle late last week in a game and hadn’t practiced at all as of Monday night. Missing his offense will be tough vs a Tennessee team that ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency (#1 last year as well) limiting teams to just 0.87 points per possession. The Vols had their chances against both Kansas and Purdue. The led in the 2nd half of both of those games but scored only 5 points in the final 6 minutes vs Kansas and had a shot to win in the final minute vs the Boilers. Now we’re getting a rested (off for a week) veteran team (all upperclassmen in rotation) off 2 straight losses. They will play with some urgency here and our power ratings have Tennessee as the better team and they are getting points. UNC’s 3 home games this year have been vs teams outside the top 150 and the Heels lost 3 home games a year ago. Last time the Vols paid a visit to the Dean Smith Dome in November 2021, they walked away with a 17 point win as an underdog. We don’t look for a blowout by either team here but we like the Vols to pull the minor upset.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -2 vs Golden State Warriors – 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors typically get everyone’s best shot on a nightly basis with their lofty reputation. The Kings are no exception here and even have a little more to play for after the Warriors knocked them out of the Playoffs last season and beat them twice this year. On Oct 27th the Warriors went to Sacramento and won 122-114 as a 3-point dog. Then on Nov 1st the Warriors won at home 102-101 but the Kings were without All-Star point guard DeAaron Fox. Fox is averaging just under 30PPG and 6APG and is clearly one of the Kings two best players along with Sabonis. Golden State is just 3-8 SU their last eleven games and two of those wins came against the struggling Spurs and Pistons. Sacramento is 7-2 SU their last nine games and coming off a big road win over the Timberwolves. The Kings are a respectable 29-21 SU at home since the start of last season with an average +/- of +2.7PPG. Golden State is 17-38 SU away since the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. We like the Kings to get a measure of revenge in this one.

#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Bears +3 over Minnesota Vikings, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bears are back at full strength with Justin Fields back in at QB and we like them to give Minnesota problems on Monday night. Chicago played @ Detroit last Sunday and led for much of the 2nd half including holding a 12 point lead with under 3:30 remaining in the game. The Lions pulled out a miracle with 17 points from that point on to beat Chicago by 5. Minnesota had their 5 game winning streak ended with a 21-20 loss @ Denver last week. New QB Dobbs has looked very solid for the Vikings but struggled in the 2nd half last week leading Minnesota to just 10 points along with throwing an interception. Dobbs was also very solid to start the year with Arizona but as teams figured out the Cards offense and how they were going to use him, he tapered off and we wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here. In the first meeting this season, Minnesota was at 100% with Cousins at QB and really struggled to beat the Bears 19-13. In that game Minnesota only scored 1 offensive TD and had a long fumble recovery for a TD which was the difference in the game. Chicago had more first downs and outgained the Vikings in that loss but had 3 turnovers. Five of Minnesota’s six wins this season have come by a single score and they’ve only won 1 game by more than 8 points. Four of Chicago’s last five losses have been 1 score games. The Bears offense should get back on track with Fields back in the line up and their defense has been very good as of late jumping from near the bottom of the NFL in late September to 15th in total defense where they currently stand. Minnesota has been historically poor on Monday nights with a 5-13 spread record since 2009. We think Chicago has a great shot at the upset here. Take the points.

#859 ASA TOP PLAY ON Northern Illinois +13.5 over Northwestern, Monday at 8 PM ET - Northwestern was overvalued coming into the season which has shown through in their ATS record which is 1-4. On the other end, Northern Illinois is undervalued with a perfect 5-0 ATS record (5-1 SU). The Huskies have played a fairly tough schedule (79th) and their only loss came in the season opener @ Marquette who is a top 10 team. Northwestern has a 4-1 SU record and none of their wins have come by this current spread of 13 despite playing a number of teams ranked much lower than NIU. The Cats are also coming off a 9 day layoff which we don’t think is ideal and they have bigger fish to fry as they host Purdue on Friday. NIU has shown an ability to shoot the ball well thus far ranking in the top 80 in both eFG% and 3 point %. This team should be able to hit some 3’s here facing a NW defense that is allowing opponents to hit almost 39% from deep this season (323rd defensively). The Huskies also get to the FT line a lot (25% of their points have come from the stripe) and if they can do that along with winning the 3 point line this game should be fairly close. NW is not a good shooting team thus far especially from beyond the arc where they’ve made only 29%. Last year Northwestern won this game at home by 17 points and this year they are facing an NIU team that is rated 100 spots higher, per KenPom, than last year’s team. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are currently 20+ spots lower right now compared to where they ended last season. This is a big game for NIU playing an instate big boy while NW just wants to get out of this one with a win and get ready to host the #1 team in the country on Friday. Take the points.

#743 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Texas A&M pick-em to +1.5 over Iowa State, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Florida. Both teams coming off losses on Friday with A&M losing by 7 vs FAU (37th rated team per KenPom) and Iowa State losing by 9 vs Virginia Tech (49th rated team per KenPom). The Aggies loss vs a very good Florida Atlantic team came down to the Owls shooting lights out from deep (16 of 30 from 3) and making 20 FT’s compared to 15 for A&M. Thus FAU outscored the Aggies by 23 points from beyond the arc + FT line and only won by 7. We look for this veteran team to bounce back tonight. The Aggies were 25-10 last year and they return 4 starters along with 81% of their minutes from that team. That includes PG Taylor who is one of the top players in the country. They are 5-1 SU on the season and have played a tough schedule already with 4 of their 6 opponents sitting inside the top 100. Iowa State is also 5-1 but they’ve played one of the weakest slates in the country with 2 top 100 teams and the other 4 ranking outside the top 260 including 3 outside the top 300. The Cyclones defensive numbers are great so far this season but let’s put that into perspective. They’ve played only 1 offense this year ranked in the top 100 and lost (vs Va Tech) and 4 of their other opponents are currently ranked 277 or lower in offensive efficiency with 3 outside the top 325. Now they face an A&M offense ranked 5th nationally in offensive efficiency. ISU thrives on creating turnovers to open up offensive opportunities but the Aggies have a veteran backcourt the rarely turns the ball over (13% TO rate – 19th best in the country) so we don’t think the Cyclones will be able to take advantage of that as they have vs lesser opponents this season. Because they are aggressive defensively, ISU fouls a lot and A&M makes their FT’s (76%) at a high rate. On the other end the Cyclones make only 68% of their freebies. A&M has been a covering machine with an ATS record of 50-30 their last 80 games. Our power ratings have A&M favored by 3 here and we’re getting them at dead even. Take Texas A&M here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -3.5 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - This is an ideal situation to back the Nets at home who are rested, playing an unrested Heat team AND playing with revenge from a loss to the Heat just over a week ago. Miami played last night in New York and tonight’s game will be their 4th in six days, 3rd in four days. Brooklyn has been off since the 22nd and will be well rested heading into this game. On Nov 16th the Nets lost in Miami 115-122 as a +3.5-point underdog. The game was relatively even statistically, but the Heat shot it slightly better overall and from beyond the arc. The Nets are 3-1 SU their last four at home with their most recent home game being a blowout loss to the 76ers. Miami is 6-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season when playing on the second night of a back to back. Brooklyn is 11-7-1 ATS in that same time frame when playing with 2-3 days rest. Miami is 28-37-3 when coming off a win since the start of last season. Brooklyn had beaten the Heat 6 straight times prior to the recent loss and we are betting they get back on the winning track here.

#233 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -2.5 over New Mexico State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This is a really solid situational spot for Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks are not eligible for a bowl game this year so you can expect them to treat this as their bowl game. They are facing an NMSU team that has already qualified for the CUSA Championship game next weekend where they will be facing Liberty. On top of that, New Mexico State is coming off a HUGE upset last weekend beating Auburn (maybe caught Tigers looking ahead to Alabama this week?) on the road as a 25 point dog. To add fuel to the fire, JSU, because they joined the conference this year is not eligible to play in the CUSA Championship. If they were, this game would be for a spot in that game with both teams at 6-1 in league play and because of that you can bet this is a huge statement game for JSU. Add that up and this is a prime letdown spot for the Aggies looking ahead to next week’s Championship game. JSU played arguably their best game of the season last week beating La Tech 56-17 and outgained the Bulldogs 628 to 269. NMSU’s QB Pavia is banged up and they rely heavily on their running game which could be a problem in this game. JSU ranks 19th nationally allowing only 106 YPG and 4th nationally allowing 2.7 YPC. On the other side of the ball JSU averages almost 250 YPG on the ground (3rd in the nation) and they are facing a Aggie defense that ranks 41st defending the run and 61st in YPC allowed. There is a reason the road team is favored over the team playing in the CUSA Championship Game next week. We like JSU to win by more than a FG here.

#168 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -4.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both these teams step into this game with a 3-8 record, however our power ratings have IU as the lowest rated team in the Big 10 and Purdue 3 points better on a neutral site. We’re getting them at basically that number at home on Saturday. Purdue is off a loss @ NW but they played that game without starting QB Card and he is expected back for this one. Even without Card, the Boilermakers were +9 first downs and +114 yards in that loss. What’s been impressive about the Purdue offense as of late is their running game. They have now rushed for over 300 yards in each of their last 2 games and the week prior to that they actually outrushed Michigan in their loss in Ann Arbor. They should have a big edge here in the trenches vs an Indiana team that ranks 107th running the ball and 120th in YPC. IU has lost 6 of their last 7 games with their only win coming at home vs Wisconsin with the Badgers playing their backup QB. And the Hoosiers were outgained in that win vs the Badgers by 80 yards but Wisconsin was -2 in turnovers. Despite the records being equal, Purdue has the better numbers vs nearly the same strength of schedule. The Boilers have the better point differential YPG differential and YPP differential. They have also covered 6 in a row vs the Hoosiers. Last year Purdue was -10.5 on the road vs IU (Purdue won by 14) and now we’re getting them at home right around a FG favorite. The Boilers lost to Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin at home however when facing lower tier Big 10 opponents (Illinois & Minnesota) they won by scores of 44-19 and 49-30. We like Purdue to win & cover at home on Saturday.

ASA top play 10* on #566 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - This is a big game for the In Season Tournament as both teams are 2-0 in pool play and the winner of this game essentially locks up the In Season bid. Minnesota was just a -7-point favorite at home against the 76ers and are now laying just -4 against the Kings? These teams have similar offensive efficiency ratings with the Kings averaging 1.137-points per possession while the Wolves average 1.135PPP. Minnesota owns the 6th best FG% number in the league at 48.9%. Sacramento doesn’t shoot it overly well at 46.2% (22nd) but they make 3-pointers at a 14.6 per game clip which is 5th most. The difference between these two teams comes on the defensive end of the court. The Wolves are 1st in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.062PPP compared to the Kings who rank 16th in the NBA allowing 1.144PPP. Minnesota is one of the best teams in the league defending the 3-point line holding opponents to 32.4% shooting (2nd). Sacramento allows opponents to hit 48.9% of their field goal attempts which is 23rd in the league. Minnesota has won 3 of the last four meetings with the Kings getting one win in OT last year. Minnesota has the 2nd best average home differential in the league at +17.3PPG. The Kings have a negative road differential of minus -3.2PPG. Back the home team here by more than 4-points.

#185 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Tulane, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - These teams are both 7-0 in conference play and the winner of this game will move onto play on the AAC Championship game. Tulane has a few other options to make it to that game if they lose here but UTSA does not. We really like the way UTSA is playing right now and we also feel Tulane has been trending down for the last 4 or 5 weeks. The Roadrunners have won 7 straight games and they are 5-1-1 ATS during that stretch. Their offense has been rolling to say the least scoring at least 34 points in each of those 7 wins and topping 40 points 4 times. Tulane remains overvalued covering only 2 of their last 8 games and they’ve struggled with some of the AAC’s worst teams. Prior to winning and covering vs a bad FAU team last week, the Green Wave beat Tulsa by 2 (as 24.5 point favorites), beat ECU by 3 (as 17 point favorites), beat Rice by 2 (as 10 point favorites), and topped North Texas by 7 (as 20 point favorites). Their record remains great but this team is primed to be knocked off. On Friday they face the best team they’ve seen since losing by 17 at home vs Ole Miss back in September. Their offense is struggling not scoring more than 24 points in any of their last 3 games and 2 of those games were vs defenses ranked 90th and 129th nationally. We have UTSA rated as the better team and we’re getting more than a FG. When comparing the key stats in AAC play only, despite both teams having 7-0 records, UTSA has a point differential of +132 while Tulane’s point differential is +52. The Roadrunners are also +100 YPG and +1.4 YPP in conference play compared to the Green Wave who are +59 YPG and +0.5 YPP. UTSA has been a dog just once this season and that was @ Tennessee. They haven’t lost a game since September and 2 of their 3 losses this season came with star QB Harris (4 year starter with 11,600 passing yards and 91 TD’s in his career) out of the lineup with an injury. UTSA is undervalued right now and we like them to win this game and move onto the AAC Championship game.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #113 Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs. NY Jets, Friday 3 PM ET - Let’s be upfront on this wager. It looks like we are laying a premium price with the Dolphins here as this line opened with Miami favored by -7.5 points and has been bet up steadily since. Part of the bump in the number is the speculation the Jets are going to their 3rd string QB Tim Boyle. Boyle has been in the league for 5 years out of Eastern Kentucky with 18 games played with 607 total passing yards on 72/120 passing. He has 3 career TD’s to 9 INT’s. This Jets offense is putrid! They have scored 13, 6, 12 and 6-points in their past four games. New York is averaging 4.7 yards per play this season (29th) which is even worse in their past three games at 4.1YPP. The 270YPG and 15PPG average are both 30th in the league. They can’t run (23rd) at 99.8 rushing yards per game or pass (30th) at 170.5 passing YPG. Nothing will come easy against a Dolphins defense that is 12th in total YPG allowed and 13th in yards per play allowed. Miami has one of the best offenses in the NFL rankings 1st in total YPG, 1st in yards per play (7.2), 2nd in rushing and 1st in passing. The Jets simply cannot keep up with this offense. Miami has struggled against the good teams this season, but against the bad teams they’ve dominated with 4 double digit wins. Miami is coming off a poor final score against the Raiders with a 20-13 win. They dominated statistically with 9 more first downs, had 422 total yards of offense but 3 key turnovers cost them points. This week they make a statement on Friday with a 2 or more TD win over the Jets.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #106 Detroit Lions -7.5 vs. Green Bay Packers, Thursday 12:30 PM ET - The extra ½ point on this game will have plenty of bettors on the Packers as a division dog but not us. The Lions were favored by -2.5 points at Lambeau earlier this season and put up 34-points in a 14-point win. Detroit put up over +400 total yards of offense and held the Packers to 230. In week #2 of this season the Lions were favored by 6-points at home against Seattle and lost 31-37. Since then, they have gone 4-0 SU at home with three of those wins coming by 14 or more points. Last week they trailed the Bears for most of the game before two TD’s late in the game for a win. That should serve as a wake-up call for the Lions. Green Bay has to travel here on a short week and are coming off a satisfying home win over the Chargers. The Packers QB Jordan Love has looked good the past two weeks but now he’ll be playing without RB Aaron Jones and going up against a Lions defense that is ranked 9th in defensive DVOA. Detroit is 5th against the run, 9th in total YPG allowed and 8th in opponents completion percentage. Green Bay is 18th in offensive DVOA and 23rd defensively. The Packers have one road win this season (Bears) and they haven’t faced a team of the Lions caliber on the road yet. Last season the Lions had an average +/- at home of +7.8PPG, this year that average is +8.6PPG.

ASA top play on 10* #536 Boston Celtics -5.5 or -6 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - This is the biggest game on the schedule tonight and we are backing the Celtics at home minus the points. The Celtics are coming off a loss and back at home where they haven’t lost this season. Boston has an average +/- of +22.4PPG at home this season and it’s come against quality opponents including the Heat, Pacers, Nets, Raptors and Knicks. We realize the Celtics can’t continue that torrid point differential at home, but we won’t be surprised if that average is double digits by seasons end. Last season the C’s average +/- at home was +8.8PPG. Last season the Celtics beat the Bucks badly in two of the three meetings with a pair of 41-point wins. Milwaukee is still going through an adjustment period with a new coach and Damian Lillard. The Bucks are 10-4 SU but it’s come against a very soft schedule (25th). These two teams are similar offensively with the Buck ranking 7th in offensive efficiency, the Celtics are 3rd. Defensively it’s not close as the C’s are 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency the Bucks are 25th. With Milwaukee still going through a transition period we like Boston to get a dominating win at home tonight.

#690 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland State -7.5 over East Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for the host CSU.  The Vikings are coming off a road loss @ Eastern Michigan as a 7 point favorite.  They should be extra motivated after that loss.  They are facing an ETSU team that is off an upset win at home over Davidson (70-68 as a 6.5 point dog) which makes this a perfect set up for the home team.  ETSU battled back from a 10 point deficit in that game to win by 2 points.  The Bucs are 2-2 on the season but they’ve lost both of their road games @ Elon (ETSU was a favorite) and then getting smoked at Butler.  This is an ESTU team that had a 12-20 record last season and is learning the ropes under a new head coach Brooks Savage who has never been a head coach and came over from Wake Forest where he was an assistant.  Four of their five starters are transfers and they only return 34% of their minutes for last season.  Cleveland State finished 21-14 last season and they are one of the favorites in the Horizon this season.  We currently have them power rated as the 2nd best team in the league behind only Wright State.  They return 3 starters and almost 60% of their minutes from last year.  CSU’s 2 losses have come on the road and they are 3-0 at home and they’ve won 30 of their last 35 games at home.  The Vikings have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court and they finished 2nd in the Horizon last year with a 14-6 SU record.  CSU is a solid program with a record of 55-33 last 3+ seasons and we’re getting them at home off a loss. We expect a double digit win for the Vikings on Wednesday.

ASA top play on 10*: #522 Atlanta Hawks -3.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:40 PM ET - This is a big game for the East Group A pool in the In-Season Tournament as the Pacers are 2-0 and leading the group with the Hawks in the 4th spot at 1-1. Atlanta is on the outside looking in but still have an opportunity to get into the mid-season finals if they beat the Pacers here and get a win over Cleveland. The Hawks are 2-3 SU their last five games and have currently lost three straight home games but we like them to get back on track here. Not to mention, the three recent home losses came to the 76ers, Knicks and Heat. The young Pacers have only played 4 road games this season with a 2-2 SU record. Comparing these two teams when it comes to efficiency ratings we find the Pacers hold a slight edge offensively ranking 1st while the Hawks are 5th. Defensively the Pacers are the 27th worst in DEFF with the Hawks ranking 22nd. Atlanta has the 9th best net differential when you factor in their strength of schedule while the Pacers are 19th. Atlanta has won 6 of the last seven meetings with five of those coming by 3 or more points. This line isn’t what it should be as our power ratings have the Hawks favored by nearly 6-points.

#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit -2.5 over Eastern Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Detroit will finally be playing their first home game after starting the season with 4 tough road tilts. The Titans are 0-4 which is giving us some value here as we’re laying -2.5 and our power ratings have Detroit closer to -5. They are also catching EMU off an upset home win over Cleveland State as 7 point underdogs which is also pushing this number lower than it should be. Detroit has played all top 125 teams and those 4 teams have a combined record of 13-1. Now they get to play a home game vs an EMU team ranked outside the top 300 so big drop off in competition. We’ll be honest the numbers on both ends of the court for both teams are not good but Detroit has played the tougher schedule. The only unit on the court that ranks inside the top 300 in efficiency is Detroit’s offense which ranks 252nd. Eastern is 2-2 on the season but those 2 wins came at home. They’ve played 2 road games this year and lost those by 43 & 39 points! Speaking of road games, the Eagles have been absolutely brutal long term away from home winning only 6 of their last 54 road games! With this number set very low, the almost need to win this game outright to cover and we just don’t see it. Detroit, on the other hand, has been very solid at home with an 18-6 SU record since the start of the 2022 season. This is a revenger for Detroit as well as they lost by 2 points @ EMU last year. The Titans were favored on the road by 4.5 points in that one and now they are laying a full bucket less at home just 1 year later. Again, nice value here with the home team and we’ll lay it.

#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette -5.5 over UCLA, Monday at 11:30 PM ET – Game in Hawaii - This is the last game of the Maui Invitational on Monday night. This is rough early season opponent for this inexperienced UCLA team. The Bruins have 1 starter back from last year’s team, lost nearly 90% of the scoring, and return only 18% of their total minutes from a year ago. Their starting backcourt is really raw with sophomore McClendon, who averaged 9 minutes per game last year, and freshman Mack. They’ve be facing off vs one of the top guard duos in the country. Marquette’s Kolek was Big East player of the year last season and Jones is one of the top off guards in the nation. Huge advantage to the Golden Eagles. As a whole, unlike UCLA, Marquette brings back nearly everyone from a team that finished 29-7 last year and won the Big East regular season and post season crown. They return 4 starters and 85% of their minutes. They’ve already faced the much tougher schedule with each of Marquette’s opponents ranking higher in Ken Pom than any of UCLA’s foes. The Eagles also have a played a high level opponent on the road this year as they beat Illinois 71-64 leading nearly the entire way. UCLA has played 3 home games vs teams all ranked 329th or lower. Despite playing 3 terrible opponents, the Bruins only hit 24% of their 3 pointers in those 3 games and their young starting backcourt is just 2 for 9 from deep this season. This veteran Marquette team has been more than comfortable away from home (road or neutral) with a 14-6 SU record (14-5-1 ATS) since the start of last season. We like the Golden Eagles to roll to an easy win on Monday night.

#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Super Bowl rematch here and we’ll side the team that won that game, the Chiefs, at home on Monday night. Both teams are off a bye, however we feel this heavily favors KC and head coach Andy Reid. He’s been lights out off a bye during his coaching career with a 21-3 SU lifetime record. This line says that these 2 teams are dead even on a neutral field which we don’t agree with. We have KC as the better team and DVOA agrees with us as they have the Chiefs rated 3rd in the NFL and Philadelphia 9th. DVOA also rates KC better on offense and defense. They’ve played the more difficult schedule and they have the better numbers. KC is +80 YPG and +0.9 YPP while the Eagles are +50 YPG and +0.2 YPP. The Chiefs also have a better point differential despite having one less win. The Eagles are 4-1 SU on the road however this is their first real test away from home. Their road slate has been one of the easiest in the NFL facing the Jets, Commanders, Patriots, Rams, and Bucs thus far. Despite winning 3 straight games, Philly simply isn’t playing all that well getting outgained by more than 100 yards in 2 of those wins vs Dallas & Washington. QB Hurts has not been 100% (leg injury) and he just lost one of his top targets TE Goedert with an arm injury. KC has won 20 of their last 22 home games and all but one of those wins had come by at least 3 points. We look for Patrick Mahomes to have a big night vs a Philly defense that ranks 28th vs the pass and 29th in opposing QBR. With this sitting under a FG, we like the Chiefs to cover at home.

#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings +2.5 or +3 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Broncos look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 3 straight. However, they have been outgained in 2 of those 3 wins and in the other “W” they only outgained the Packers by 8 yards. They were underdogs in 2 of those wins and a small 1 point favorite vs Green Bay. Now they are officially overvalued laying nearly a full FG vs a solid Minnesota team that has won 5 straight games and covered 6 of their last 7. This Denver team is flat out bad when laying points with a 4-15-1 ATS run their last 20 in that role. They lost 13 of those 20 games outright. Minnesota has continued to play very well after inserting Dobbs at starting QB. In 2 games with the Vikings Dobbs has thrown for 426 yards on 67% completions with 3 TD’s and no picks. Their rushing attack doesn’t have good numbers for the season but the Vikes have balanced their offense out nicely with 125 and 146 yards rushing the last 2 games. On the other side the defense is vastly improved ranking in the top 10 in YPP allowed giving up a full 1.0 YPP less than last season. The Vikings have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to less than 20 points. Minnesota has the much better overall numbers on the season with a point differential of +24 (Denver is -52), a YPG margin of +35 (Denver is -100), and a YPP margin of +0.6 (Denver is -0.8). We’ll take the better overall team as an underdog in this one.

ASA Top Play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs Orlando Magic – 5:10 PM ET - These two teams have been big surprises in the Eastern Conference this season and both of their young rosters have played exceptionally well. Orlando comes into this game with a 7-5 SU record, Indiana is 7-4 SU. These teams play two entirely different styles of play as the Pacers try to outscore you whereas the Magic focus their energy on the defensive end of the court. Indiana is averaging a league best 1.223-points per possession and score 126.5PPG. Orlando has the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the league and allow 106.6PPG. We are betting the Pacers outscore the Magic here. Indiana is second in pace of play and the young Magic rank 15th meaning they can and will get sucked into playing an uptempo game today. Despite playing fast in high possession games, the Pacers don’t turn the ball over with the 3rd fewest TO’s in the league. Orlando on the other hand averages the 3rd most TO’s on the season at 16.3 per game. Pacer PG Tyrese Haliburton is playing at an All-Star level averaging 24.7PPG, 12.5 APG points per game, and his 12.5 assists per leads the NBA. We are not as impressed with the Magics recent two road wins over a Bulls team that is on the trade market. Indiana on the other hand has won 4 of their last five games including wins over the 76ers and Bucks in that stretch. They also own a pair of wins over a Cavs team this season that plays a similar style to the Magic. Orlando has a negative differential on the road this season of -5PPG, Indiana at home has a +11.3PPG differential which is 5th best in the NBA. Let’s lay the points.

#453 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona Cardinals +6 over Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a very dangerous game in our opinion for Houston. They’ve only been favored three times this season and never more than 3.5 points. They didn’t cover any of those games and lost 2 of them outright. The Texans are coming off a huge road win topping Cincinnati 30-27 and held on for dear life with the Bengals turning the ball over in Houston territory in 2 of their final 4 possessions. We feel a letdown is in order here for a team that is not used to having much success. We feel Arizona could be a very dangerous team moving forward with Kyler Murray back in the line up at QB. They topped a solid Atlanta team last week and the Cards dominated the stat sheet outgained the Falcons by 100 yards and +2.0 YPP. Murray was dynamic under center with 249 yards passing and 33 yards rushing. His mobility will make it tough to defend this offense on Sunday. Arizona also got top RB Conner back in the fold after an injury and he ran for 73 yards on 16 carries. The entire Arizona team seemed rejuvenated with Murray back under center. We’ll see how the Texans handle some unexpected success on Sunday. Historically, poor teams from the previous season that pull upsets are a heavy play against. In fact, NFL favorites from week 5 on that are off a SU upset win as a dog and won 4 or fewer games the previous season have a spread record of 32-66 ATS the last 44 seasons! It’s hard for teams that aren’t used to success to suddenly handle success well. That goes for Houston who is 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they’ve been favored including 0-3 ATS this year as we already mentioned. Take the points in what we feel will be a close game on Sunday.

#456 ASA PLAY ON 8* Green Bay Packers +3 vs LA Chargers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a bad line by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly capitalize on the home underdog Packers. The Packers are coming off a game in Pittsburgh they should have won as the Steelers were once again outgained but still managed to win. Green Bay racked up 399 total yards against Pittsburgh’s defense that is rated 7th in defensive DVOA and now face a Chargers unit ranked 27th. The Packers averaged 6.1 yards per play a full 1.0YPP better than their season average. L.A. is coming off a home loss to the Lions 38-41. The Lions averaged 8.3YPP against the Chargers D and put up 533 total yards of offense. Those defensive numbers aren’t shocking as the Chargers are 30th in the league in yards per play D, 31st in total yards allowed per game and 32nd in passing yards per game allowed. The Packers defense has been better than expected this season allowing 320YPG (11th best), 5.1YPP (7th) and hold opponents to 20.2PPG (12th). The Chargers rely on their passing attack offensively but have injury concerns to the WR corps and they’ll be facing a solid Packer pass defense. Green Bay allows the 7th fewest passing YPG this season at 187YPG, along with ranking 7th in yards per completion and 8th in yards per attempt. Green Bay has lost two games at home this season but that was to the Lions and Vikings (w/Cousins) who we rate better than L.A. Not to mention, the lines on those two games were lower than this one.

#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Titans rookie QB Will Levis played well in his first start but now teams have game tape on him and can better prepare or scheme for the young QB. He is in a tough situation here with this being his third straight road game and the Titans have not played well away from home. Tennessee is averaging just 12PPG (30th) away from home and 255YPG which is 30th in the NFL. They are 0-5 SU on the road and also have a negative average differential of minus -9.7PPG. Last week the Jags schedule finally caught up with them and they faced a highly motivated 49ers team off a 3 game losing streak. They were blown out by 31-points which should serve as a wake up call this week. Prior to that game the Jags had won 5 straight games with four of those five wins coming by 7 or more points. This is one of those fishy lines with the Jags favored by 7 full points when they were only favored by 4 at home against the Colts and 3 against the Falcons. Tennessee just played at Tampa and was +2.5 and the week before they were +3 at Pittsburgh. This looks like an obvious trap by the oddsmakers as they are baiting you to back the Titans. Let’s not do it!

#430 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -14.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We were on the Spartans last week as they rolled over a very solid Fresno State team 42-18 and we expect more of the same on Saturday. San Jose State is 5-5 and they need one more win for bowl eligibility. They are much better than their .500 record as their losses have come at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 38-15! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 7 of their last 8 games. They’ve won 4 straight in blowout fashion, including rolling over an 8-1 Fresno State team last Saturday as we mentioned. The Spartans have beaten those 4 opponents by a combined score of 171 to 63 and outgained those teams 1,830 to 1,160. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with over 1,000 yards over the last 4 games. Last week they completely dominated the line of scrimmage rushing for 313 yards to just 83 for Fresno. That was vs a Bulldog defense that was allowing just 125 YPG rushing and now SJSU faces a San Diego State defense that ranks 111th vs the run. SDSU has been a huge disappointment this season and last week’s loss @ Colorado State knocked them out of bowl contention with a current record of 3-7. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week, we may not see a lot of fight out of this Aztec team. They are getting outgained by 100 YPG and by 1.0 YPP on the season. The SDSU offense ranks 112th in total offense and 116th in scoring and they are going to try and keep up with a team that has averaged 43 PPG over their last 4? We don’t thinks so. Another easy win for SJSU who is also looking for revenge after losing to the Aztecs last season as a favorite.

#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State +7.5 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Texas has been playing a number of tight games as of late with 4 of their last 5 decided by a TD or less. Their last 2 road games have gone to the wire winning by just 7 @ Houston as a 23.5 point favorite and winning by 3 last week @ TCU as a 13 point favorite. The Horns have covered only once in their last 5 games and they’ll have all they can handle here vs an ISU team that has had their number. Iowa State has won 3 of the last 4 season vs Texas with their only loss coming @ UT last year 24-21 as a 16 point dog. ISU had over 400 yards in the loss and outgained Texas in the process. The Cyclones are also playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 games with their only losses during that stretch coming @ Oklahoma and vs Kansas by a final of 28-21. Texas took huge blow in last week’s tight win @ TCU losing all everything RB Brooks (1,100 rushing yards and 10 TD’s) to an injury and he’ll be out for the rest of the year. The Clones are playing their home finale here with some solid momentum after rolling @ BYU 45-13 last week. They have a top 25 defense and head coach Matt Campbell has proven he knows how to defend the potent Longhorn attack not allowing Texas to top 24 points in any of their last 6 meetings. Speaking of Campbell, he’s been lights out as a Big 12 underdog with a 28-11 ATS mark in that spot including 11-3 ATS when getting points at home in league play. This is a very dangerous game for Texas and we like Iowa State to stay within this number and have a shot at the upset.

#878 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Mary’s pick-em over San Diego State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - We’re getting a very good St Mary’s team off a loss blowing a 16 point 2nd half lead in a 61-57 loss vs Weber State. It was a rare poor shooting game for STM as they made only 40% of their shots overall and just 18% from beyond the arc. We feel it’s an anomaly that St Mary’s is hitting only 25% of their 3’s this season after making over 36% a year ago. They return 3 starters and 70% of their minutes (most in the West Coast Conference) from a team that was 27-8 last season. Not only that, the Gaels beat San Diego State last year 68-61 last season on a neutral court and that was an Aztec team that went to the National Championship game. We expect a regression this season from a SDSU team that must replace 2 starts and half of their minutes from last year’s team. St Mary’s has been one of the slowest paced teams in the nation for years now and they will turn this game into a “crawl” which is not how San Diego State likes to play. Gaels HC Randy Bennett is fantastic at getting his team to bounce back after a loss as they are 13-1 ATS in that spot. At a pick-em type game we feel we’re getting the better overall team in the better situation. Take St Mary’s on Friday Night.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -6.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7:30 PM ET - The Victor Webanyama hype is starting to die down and it’s becoming very clear just how far the Spurs have to go to be relevant again. San Antonio has lost 6 straight by an average of 19.5PPG, albeit two of those losses were by 36 and 41-points. But that’s also an indicator of just how bad this team can be at times. Sacramento is playing like the team that won 48 regular season games a year ago with 4 straight W’s. The last two victories were impressive with a 15-point win against the Lakers and a 12-point win over the Cavs. The Kings were the #1 most efficient offense in the NBA a year ago and averaged 120.8PPG. They’ve gotten off to a slow start this season but have a great opportunity to get right here against a Spurs defense that is 28th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.197-points per possession. Sacramento has not shot the 3-ball well at 33.9% but the Spurs allow opponents to hit over 40% of their 3-point attempts. San Antonio is also 28th in the league in offensive efficiency scoring just 1.068PPP. This is one of the In Season Tournament games, so it has added incentive for the Kings who trail the Timberwolves by a win in the Western Conference group C. The Spurs are essentially eliminated from contention with a 0-2 record. Sacramento has won 5 of the last six meetings with the Spurs with all of those wins coming by 7 or more points. Lay it here with the Kings.

ASA top play on 10* #312 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15PM ET - Both teams are coming off huge letdown losses as the Bengals suffered a beat at home to the Texans, while the Ravens squandered a 14-point lead to the Browns in the 4th quarter and lost at home by 2. We expect Baltimore to bounce back here at home in this HUGE division game. Both teams have impressive ATS records when coming off a loss going back to 2020 with the Bengals 16-7-1 ATS while the Ravens are 14-7-1 ATS. Baltimore is 8-5 SU their last thirteen home games with an average +/- of +7PPG. Cincinnati hasn’t been the same team this season (5-4 with an ave +/- of minus -1.1PPG) after going 27-13 SU the previous two seasons. The Bengals averaged 353.8 total yards per game last season (11th) but are putting up just 301.7YPG this season which ranks 24th. In fact, the Bengals have been outgained in terms of Yards Per Play in every game this season but one. The Bengals defense has allowed 6.1YPP this season which is 31st in the league, only ahead of the Denver Broncos at 6.4YPP. In comparison, Baltimore’s defense is best in the league in this stat category allowing only 4.2YPP and giving up only 273 total YPG. The Ravens have been especially stingy in the Red Zone allowing just 34.62% (3rd) of opponent’s TD’s to be scored. Baltimore is averaging 5.7YPP on the season and score TD’s on 64.29% of their RZ attempts which is 4th best in the NFL. Baltimore outplayed the Bengals in the first meeting this season with +7 more first downs, 415YDS to 282YDS and a +1.0YPP advantage in their 3-point road win. Some may look at the dog in this rivalry, but the numbers tell us the Ravens have been much better on both sides of the football this season. Lay it!

#717 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State +10 or +9.5 over Indiana, Thursday at 7 PM ET - IU has been less than impressive to say the least in their 2 wins this season. They won their season opener by 6 points vs Florida Gulf Coast and then beat Army by 8 points on Sunday. They weren’t even close to covering either game losing to the spread by a combined 25 points. Those 2 opponents currently have an 0-5 record vs D1 opponents this season. The closest losses this season for both of those teams were vs Indiana. In those games the Hoosiers had a massive advantage from the foul line (+32 made FT’s in those 2 games combined) and still struggled to win those games. IU was only +3 on the boards in those games and now face a Wright State team that has more size than both those opponents and has been decent on the boards. This Indiana team is not playing well to start the season and Wright State is a very solid mid Major who will give IU all they can handle. The Raiders just faced Toledo (the 2nd best team in the MAC) and lost 78-77. They have the makings of a team that can pull the upset as they shoot the ball very well (43rd nationally in eFG% after finishing 44th last year) and they make their FT’s (76%). The Wright State program is used to success vs the big boys as head coach Nagy has faced 7 major conference teams during the regular season and he’s pulled off outright wins in 3 of those games vs NC State, Louisville, and Georgia Tech. This is a huge opportunity for WSU playing on the big stage vs a Big 10 opponent so they’ll bring it on Thursday. Indiana has bigger fish to fry this weekend facing reigning National Champs UConn at Madison Square Garden. Too many points here as we look for the Raiders to give IU a run for their money.

ASA top play on #513 Sacramento Kings +1.5 vs LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - This is a very favorable scheduling situation for the Kings as they catch the Lakers off a win last night over Memphis. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, it’s also the 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days. How much will LeBron even play tonight? The Kings have had their ups and downs but now have DeAaron Fox back from injury and have won 3 straight. The Kings last game/win came on Nov 13th over the Cavaliers 132-120. These two teams have similar efficiency ratings when it comes to defense, but offensively It’s not close as the Kings average 1.127 points per possession compared to the Lakers 1.088PPP. Last season in this scheduling situation the Lakers had one of the worst efficiency differentials in the NBA at minus -10.7 and they won just 40% of those games. The Kings have been especially good on the offensive glass in their last three games, averaging 13 O-boards per game compared to the Lakers 8.7. This means more to the Kings who have always had to look up to the Lakers and it’s shown in recent years with the Kings winning 5 of the last six meetings, including a 5-point win earlier this season. We like Sacramento here over a fatigued Lakers team.

NOTE: This line jumped on us from a -3 range up to the -5.5 / -6.5 range quickly on us. This happened after we had written it up. So we will reduce our rating from a Top Game 10* to an 8* play but we still like this pick as you can see in our ORIGINAL analysis below: #690 ASA PLAY ON 8* Charlotte (-) over Utah Valley, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting some nice value with Charlotte laying on 3 points at home. For comparison’s sake Utah Valley played @ Sam Houston State last week and they were an 8 point underdog. Now they are only +3 vs a Charlotte team that we rate very close to Sam Houston. The reason this line is lower is because UVU upset Sam Houston in OT while Charlotte is coming off a loss as an underdog to Liberty who we have rated as the top team in Conference USA so not a surprise. Let’s not forget in Utah Valley's first game of the season they struggled with Carroll College of Montana winning by only 8 points despite making 10 more FT’s and 4 more 3 pointers. UVU had a great season last year but lost everyone of note. They don’t return a single starter and only 3% of their minutes played from a year ago. They have a new head coach and are in rebuild mode. Here we get Charlotte, who has won 13 of their last 17 home games, off a loss which we like. The 49ers had a very good season last year with a 22-14 record capped off by winning the post-season CBI tournament. They return some key components to that team and our power ratings have them closer to a 5.5 or 6 point favorite in this one. Charlotte is one of the slowest paced teams in the country which could be a problem for UVU who loves to play up tempo and was right at home vs Sam Houston State who also plays an up and down game. The 49ers were a very good shooting team last year ranking in the top 20 nationally in eFG% and they sit in the top 65 after 2 games this season. They’ve also made almost 81% of their FT’s this season. Utah Valley has been terrible from deep making only 22% of their 3’s through the first 2 games and they’ve made only 62% of their FT’s. Not a recipe for success on the road. Take Charlotte here.

#17 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Panthers Puck Line (-1.5 goals +100) over San Jose Sharks, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - The Sharks are, by far, the worst team in the league so far this season. San Jose is 2-12-1 but what is particularly alarming about the record is the shots on goal stats in the two wins!  The Sharks could easily be winless on the season as their 2-1 win over the Flyers saw the Sharks outshot by a 39-19 margin.  The 3-2 win over Edmonton saw San Jose outshot by a 41-18 margin!  Also, their 12 losses in regulation have all come by a multi-goal margin! In fact, the average margin of defeat for the Sharks in those dozen losses is 4 goals per game!  The Sharks are being outshot 38.4 to 24.1 on the season!  This is incredible how they are being outplayed night after night and now they must deal with a red hot Panthers team that has won 4 straight games and 9 of 12.  Of course this is why Florida is priced as a heavy money line favorite on the road here but we get the value on the puck line.  Remember, San Jose has 13 losses this season and all 12 of the losses that were in regulation were all by at least 2 goals!  Florida is scoring 3.14 goals per game this season while the Sharks are averaging just 1.20 goals per game on the season!  San Jose has been held to 2 or less goals in 11 of 12 games and Florida is averaging 4 goals per game during their 4-game winning streak.  4 to 2 or 4 to 1 sounds about right here and all signs point to the Panthers handing the Sharks another defeat by a multi-goal margin. Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Florida at an even money price in this one is the value play here.

#891 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UC Santa Barbara +3.5 over UTEP, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting the Big West reigning champs UCSB (27-8 record last year) off an opening season loss last week vs a solid Portland State team. The Gauchos played that game without PG Mitchell who was the Big West player of the year last season. He had a slight injury and was held out as a precaution but practiced over the weekend so we anticipate he’s back here. He’ll be teamed with 2 other veteran guards Anderson & Pierre-Louis giving UCSB one of the top backcourts out West. Those 2 combined for 35 points and 7 assists in Thursday’s 6 point loss and now we add Mitchell back in the mix. UTEP is coming off a 14-18 season and finished 10th in CUSA’s 11 team league. They step into this game with a 2-0 record but their opponents were McMurry College and University of Science and Arts. The Miners may be a bit overconfident after scoring 120+ points in both of those games and shooting over 60% (combined both games) vs horrific opponents. Now they face one of the better mid majors in the country with a solid core back (all of their key guards) that went to the NCAA tournament last season. The Gauchos were favored by 9.5 points in their loss vs Portland State and now they are facing a team we have similarly rated and UCSB is more than a full possession underdog (+3.5 as of this write up on Sunday night). Nice value here with the better team getting points in our opinion.

#262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Seahawks -6 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Let’s not overreact to the Seahawks blowout loss in Baltimore last week as the Ravens are playing at another level right now and might be the best team in the league at this point in time. Seattle has a great opportunity back at home against a Washington team basically in tank mode after gutting their defense at the trade deadline. Seattle is 3-1 SU at home this season with a pair of double digit wins over Arizona and Carolina and a 4-point win over Cleveland. The Seahawks have three huge games on deck with division showdowns versus the Rams and Niners with a road date in Dallas after that. That makes this game extremely important for their playoff lives. Washington has some of the worst defensive statistics in the league over the last four games and currently rank 28th in yards per game allowed, 29th in yards per play allowed (5.9), they can’t stop the run or the pass and give up 27.2PPG which is 30th. When it comes to offense the Commanders are nearly as bad ranking 23rd in offensive DVOA. Seattle is 11th in yards per play averaging 5.6 and have managed 311.8YPG despite facing 4 defenses that rank top 10 in yards allowed per game. Washington is coming off a low scoring close win over the Patriots but now travels to the West coast to face a much better Seahawks team off a loss. Hawks head coach Pete Carroll has been historically good off a loss with a cover rate of 62%. Lay it with Seattle here under a TD.

#241 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indianapolis Colts -1 -120 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 9:30AM ET – Game being played in Germany - Obviously, a long travel situation for both teams as this game is being played in Deutsche Bank Park in Germany. The Colts offense is the 7th highest scoring in the league at 25.8PPG and this unit has topped 20+ points in ten straight games. Last week against Carolina the Colts had two pick 6’s by the defense and took a conservative approach with their gameplan and QB Minshew. Minshew had thrown 5 INT’s in three games prior to the Panther game so expect a heavy dose of the running game with Taylor and Moss. New England, particularly QB Mac Jones and the offense have been pathetic this season ranking 24th in DVOA, 27th in YPG gained, 28th in rushing YPG and 21st in passing YPG. The Pats are 31st in the league in scoring at 15PPG. New England doesn’t possess the weapons on offense to exploit the Colts weakness on defense which is their secondary that has been decimated by injuries this season. This is not your old New England Patriots. Since Tom Brady left New England in 2020 the Pats are 27-33 SU. QB Mac Jones is clearly not the answer with a league leading 9 INT’s this season and QBR of 40.3. As a dog he has been horrendous with a 3-16 SU/4-15 ATS record in his career. He has just one cover in his last 14 starts as an underdog. New England has some internal issues with players/coaches and owner/Belichick as rumors are starting to swirl about him getting fired. Favorites in overseas games are 32-10-1 SU and with this number being as low as it is we will back the Colts to get the win and cover.

#186 ASA PLAY ON 8* Oregon -15.5 over USC, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - USC’s mental state has to be in question entering this game. They had goals of getting to the College FB Playoff and winning the Pac 12. Their playoff hopes were dashed a few weeks ago with their 2nd loss of the season and last week their 52-42 home loss vs Washington ended their Pac 12 hopes. This team is in a prime position now to get rolled by Oregon who we feel is the best team in the conference and one of the top few teams in the country. We expect the Oregon offense to pretty much do whatever they want in this game vs a terrible USC defense. In their last 6 games, the Trojan defense has allowed 40+ points 5 times and the only team that didn’t get there was Utah whose offense ranks 93rd nationally and the Utes still got to 34 points. The Ducks lead the nation in scoring at 47 PPG and we have no doubt they’ll top 50 here and we wouldn’t be surprised if they put up a 60 burger. Last week Oregon rolled vs Cal 63-19 while USC was giving up 52 points to Washington. The Ducks offense has been unstoppable ranking #2 nationally in total offense, #3 in YPP, #1 in YPC, #4 in passing yards, #1 in completion percentage and the list goes on. This USC has struggled vs everyone they’ve faced this season and now they are taking the road to play the BEST offense they’ve seen this year. Oregon is obviously a tough place to play and the Ducks are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in Eugene this year with an average margin of victory sitting at a ridiculous +42 points. That’s not their home point differential for the season folks, that’s their average winning margin at home! USC can score points but the difference here is Oregon actually has a very solid defense. They rank in the top 20 in scoring defense, total defense, YPP allowed, and rush defense. The Trojans have faced only 2 other defenses this year that rank in the top 30 and in those games vs Notre Dame & Utah, they scored 20 and 24 offensive points (minus defensive and special teams scores) and that won’t get close to getting it done in this game. These 2 teams have both played Cal & Utah within the last 3 weeks and Oregon won those games 63-19 and 35-6 respectively while USC came from 14 points down in the 4th quarter to beat Cal 50-49 and lost at home to Utah 34-32. Add in USC’s potential fragile mindset and this should be an easy Oregon win.

#228 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -2.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - Fresno is more than ripe to get upset in this game. There is a reason that the 8-1 Bulldogs (ranked 25th in the Coaches Poll) are a 1 point dog vs a San Jose State team that steps into this game with a 4-5 record. First off, San Jose State has played the tougher schedule with their losses coming at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 35-12! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve won 3 straight in blowout fashion, including 2 on the road, beating those 3 opponents by a combined score of 129 to 45 and outgaining those teams 1,370 to 853. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with 727 yards over the last 3 games. Despite their losing record, the Spartans are +40 YPG, +0.5 YPP, and +50 point differential on the season. They are much better than their record. Fresno has only 1 loss but they are slipping right now and lucky to get by with their wins in recent weeks. They’ve now been outgained in 4 straight games and their QB Keene is nowhere close to 100% healthy with a knee issue. The Bulldogs are losing in the trenches getting outrushed in 4 straight games and not reaching 100 yards rushing in 2 of those contests. We were on Boise State last week @ Fresno and the Broncos had more first downs, outgained the Bulldogs BOTH on the ground and through the air. The huge turning point in that game was an FSU 95 yard kickoff return as time expired in the 1st half taking the wind out of Boise’s sails in the 37-30 game. Now they travel to San Jose and they catch the Spartans off a bye week and playing their best football of the season. We like SJSU to control this game in the trenches and win at home on Saturday night.

#195 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -2.5 over Missouri, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tennessee should be fresh here coming off a 59-3 home blowout over UConn. The Vols were up 35-3 at half and they were able to get their starters plenty of rest in the 2nd half including QB Milton who only played in the 1st half. Meanwhile Mizzou was playing in a physical game @ Georgia, a game the Tigers lost 30-21. They had a bye week leading into their game vs UGA so they put 2 full weeks of prep and emotion into that game and now might be a bit flat here. We really like the Vols edge on both lines of scrimmage with the Tennessee offense averaging 228 YPG on the ground (3rd nationally) on 5.8 YPC (5th) while the UT defense allows just 97 YPG rushing (14th nationally) on 2.9 YPC (8th). The Tigers have been far from dominant at home despite their 5-1 mark as a host. The top 2 teams they’ve played here were LSU, who beat Missouri by 10, and Kansas State who lost on a 61 yard FG as time expired. In other home games the Tigers struggled to beat Middle Tennessee State by 4 and Memphis by 7. Mizzou QB Cook is very solid but we expect he’ll be under pressure again this week just as he was last week when he completed less than 50% of his passes vs UGA. The Tennessee front 7 is very good and they are top 30 in both QB sacks per game and sack percentage while the Mizzou offensive line is outside the top 45 in both of those stats. There is also a chance Cook’s #1 target WR Burden (960 yards receiving and 7 TD’s) may not play here as he has been banged up for weeks and was injured during the Georgia game last week. Burden is easily the Tigers top offensive weapon. On the season Tennessee is +147 YPG, +1.9 YPP differential, and +147 point differential. For the season Missouri is +89 YPG, +1.2 YPP, and +76 point differential. Tennessee is simply the better team, in a better situation, and with the line where it is they just have to win this game outright to most likely get a cover.

#127 ASA PLAY ON 8* Miami FL +14.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We think Miami will give FSU all they can handle here so we’re grabbing the hefty points. We’re getting some nice value here with the Canes coming off a loss @ NC State as nearly a TD favorite. Perhaps they were peaking ahead to this huge revenge game after getting walloped by FSU last season. Miami outgained NC State both on the ground and through the air in that loss but had 4 turnovers, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs at the NCSU 3 yard line. Miami is still a very solid 6-3 on the season with high level wins over Texas A&M & Clemson. The undefeated Seminoles have been on cruise control but they’ve faced only ONE opponent with a current winning record since coming from behind to beat Clemson in OT in late September. That opponent was Duke who has a winning record but is struggling big time (lost 3 of their last 5) with QB Leonard not 100%. These 2 teams have played very similar strength of schedules and their overall key stats are actually pretty close despite FSU being undefeated. Miami is +128 YPG with a +1.5 YPP differential and FSU’s numbers are +126 and +1.8. Miami is 10-3 ATS as an underdog in this series and the last 8 times they’ve been a dog on the road vs FSU, the Canes have covered 7 times. Since 1997, only twice as Florida State been favored by more than a 2 TDs vs their in state rival Miami. This is too high and there is nothing Miami would like better than to end their arch rivals run at the College FB Playoff. They’ll be more than ready here and we expect a tight game throughout. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -6 @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Wolves have opened some eyes this season with a current 4 game winning streak with impressive wins against Boston and Denver in that stretch. Granted, both W’s were at home but now they face a young Spurs team going through growing pains. San Antonio is 4-6 SU on the season but have now lost 3 straight with one of those being at home to the Raptors as a +3.5-point underdog. The Wolves should be a bigger favorite here if Toronto was laying -3.5. Minnesota is 3rd in the league in average point differential at plus +10.6PPG. San Antonio is last in the league in +/- at minus -12.5PPG. Neither offense has been great, ranking near league average in offensive efficiency, but defensively it’s not close. In fact, there couldn’t be a great difference between two teams in the league when it come to DEFF with the Wolves ranking 1st and the Spurs 30th. We will lay the points and predict a double-digit win by Minnesota in this one.

ASA top play 10* on: #475 LA Chargers -3.5 vs NY Jets, 8:15 PM ET - This line doesn’t make sense for a few key reasons. The Chargers are sitting at -3.5 points with heavy tickets and public support coming in on the Jets. So why won’t the oddsmakers move this line to -3? Someone knows something that the rest of us don’t. The Jets were coming off a bye prior to last week's game against the Giants so you would think they would’ve been prepared. Not so much as they managed just 251 total yards of offense and punted 11 times in the game. The Giants threw just 14 total passes for minus -9 yards. The Chargers looked good in their win over Chicago, albeit against the Bears. L.A. put up 352 total yards and 5.4YPP with QB Herbert completing 31 of 40 passes with 3 TD’s. The Jets will have a tough time trading points with this Chargers offense as QB Wilson/Jets average just 164 passing yards per game (31st) with a 58% completion percentage which is 30th in the league. New York as a home dog is 8-9 ATS their last seventeen with a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG. Bet the Chargers here.

#425 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State +3 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - We are on the Broncos plus the points when they travel to Fresno to take on the Bulldogs. Fresno is a ‘false favorite’ here with their 7-1 SU record on the season. The Bulldogs average margin of victory is +14.4PPG but that number is inflated after a 53-0 win over Kent and 29-0 win over Arizona State. Kent is one of the worst teams in football. ASU was without their starting QB, in a new system and had 8 TO’s in 13 possessions. According to our rankings, Fresno State has played the 97th easiest schedule in college football. Boise State is a misleading 4-4 SU this season and could conceivably have 6 straight wins with two of their losses coming by 1-point and 3-points. In their last three games they beat a surging San Jose State team, lost on a last second pass to Colorado State and then beat Wyoming badly last week 32-7. The Broncos dominated a Wyoming team that Fresno recently played and lost to by 5-points. We tend to favor strong rushing teams and Boise fits the bill with a unit that averages 195-rushing YPG at 5.1YPC. Fresno boasts some strong rushing statistics, but they’ve faced a weak rushing schedule with everyone other than UNLV ranked 70th or worse. Last week FSU was outplayed by UNLV, outrushed 156-56 but managed to win by 7-points. Boise State as an underdog since 2021 is 5-2-1 ATS. The Broncos get revenge here after losing in the conference championship game a year ago to this Fresno team.

#380 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -3 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great spot to fade Kansas who is coming off their biggest program win in decades topping Oklahoma at home last week 38-33. KU scored their game winning TD with 55 seconds remaining and it was storm the field time after that win. Now the Jayhawks head on the road where they are 0-3 ATS this season with their only outright win coming @ Nevada, one of the worst teams in CFB, by just 7 points. ISU is peaking right now. They’ve won and covered 4 of their last 5 games including a double digit home win over a very solid TCU team and a 7 point home win vs one of the hottest teams in the country, Oklahoma State. The Cyclones are actually tied atop the Big 12 with Oklahoma, Ok State, Texas, and KSU with a 4-1 record. Their offense is playing well scoring 27 or more in 4 of their last 5 and the Cyclones have a big edge defensively in this game. ISU sits in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed while Kansas ranks outside the top 100 in both of those key stats. KU thrives on their running game as they only attempt 25 passes per game (114th nationally) but they are facing an ISU defense that allows only 123 YPG rushing on 3.7 YPC. Iowa State’s running game struggled early in the season but over their last 3 they averaged nearly 170 YPG on the ground and they are facing a KU defense that ranks outside the top 100 in YPG allowed on the ground and YPC allowed. KU clinched bowl eligibility last week in their win vs OU and they were ranked for the first time EVER in the current BCS poll. Huge letdown here and ISU continues to play well and wins at home.

#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston College +3 over Syracuse, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - BC has quietly been playing very well over the last month plus with 4 straight wins. In those games their running game, now ranked 14th in the country, has been dominant, rolling up 246, 308, 321,and 203 yards rushing in those wins. That should continue vs a Syracuse team that is in a complete free fall. The Orange have lost 4 straight games and they’ve allowed an average of 210 YPG on the ground in those losses. Offensively in those games the Cuse put up 100, 92, 124, and 0 yards on the ground. Yes that’s correct in their most recent game vs Virginia Tech the Orange lost 38-10 and were outrushed 318 to 0! More concerning is they were coming off a bye leading into that Va Tech game last week and they were dominated 6.7 to 3.2 on a YPP basis. It looks like Syracuse might be done if they can’t show up with some heart and effort coming off a bye after 3 straight losses. They continue to be overvalued and have been destroyed ATS as well losing the last 4 to the number by a combined 86 points. BC QB Castellanos had an illness last week vs UConn and didn’t play very well but prior to that he had been really solid rushing for 342 yards with 6 rushing TD’s the previous 3 games. He’s also been solid passing the ball with 1,600 yards through the air and 11 TD’s. He’s going to be a big problem for this Cuse defense that has allowed at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games. The dog has covered 10 of the last 12 BC games dating back to last year and we’ll call for it again. We know this game is in Syracuse but the wrong team is favored in our opinion.

ASA Top Play 10* on: #559 Orlando Magic Pick'em at Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Yes, you read that correctly, we are taking the road favorite Magic tonight. Scheduling will be a factor here as the Jazz are coming off a game last night versus Memphis and also just played in Denver on the 30th. Last season when playing without rest the Jazz were 4-11 SU with a negative differential. The Magic will hold a huge advantage on the defensive end of the court as they rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.001 points per possession. The last place or 30th team in the NBA in DEFF is the Utah Jazz allowing 1.223PPP. In terms of offensive efficiency these teams are nearly identical at 1.111 points per possession. The Jazz were 16-21 SU last season off a win, and this is going to be a tough situation against a rested Magic team off a loss in their previous game. Take the better defense and back the Magic.

ASA top play 10* on: #310 Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans, 8:15 PM ET - The NFL continues to give us these miserable Thursday night games and tonight certainly fits the bill with the 3-4 Titans and 4-3 Steelers. We are on the Steelers at home off a home loss. Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way, the Steelers have been outgained in every game this season. This isn’t as significant as you may think considering their schedule includes: 49ers, Browns, Ravens and Jaguars (combined 21-10 SU record). Pittsburgh has struggled offensively, ranking near the bottom of the league in most key categories but a healthy QB Trubisky should inject some life into this offense. Let’s face it, he can’t be worse than Kenny Pickett who has the 29th worst QB rating in the league, completing 61% of his attempts for just 1,330 total yards with 5 TD’s to 4 INT’s. The Titan’s defense is 22nd in yards per play allowed 20th in passing yards allowed per game and 27th in opposing QB’s completion percentage. Don’t be fooled by Tennessee’s newfound rookie QB Levis who had a few big passing plays which accounted for most of his 238 passing yards last week. We are betting he struggles here on a short week, playing in a hostile environment and facing a Steelers defense averaging 3.1 sacks per game (7th most in NFL). In the last ten years Pittsburgh has the 5th best home record in the NFL at 59-29-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +4.9PPG. We will lay the short number of -3 or less on Pittsburgh.

#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest +12.5 over Duke, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Duke’s offense has gone in the tank since the injury to QB Leonard and we see no way they should be laying 10+ points with that offense right now. Leonard is still playing but not close to 100% since his injury at the end of the Notre Dame game. Since that game, the Blue Devils have scored a total of 37 offensive points in 3 games and they’ve lost 2 of those 3 games. Because of his leg injury, Leonard has had his most positive attribute taken away and that is his running ability from the QB position. In the last 2 games he’s rushed for a total of 26 yards on 11 carries for 2.3 YPC. Prior to his injury, he averaged over 6.0 YPC. Wake’s offense is not great shakes either but they shouldn’t have to score much in this one to stay within this number. The Deacs lean on the running game and they run the ball a lot (42 attempts per game – 17th most nationally). Duke’s defensive weakness is vs the run where they rank 77th allowing 149 YPG. Offensively for the Blue Devils, they’ve really struggled to throw the ball especially now with Leonard banged up. They are 116th in YPG passing and they need to run the ball well to be successful offensively. The WF defense isn’t very good vs the pass but that shouldn’t hurt them here. The Deacs are solid vs the rush allowing opponents just 128 YPG on the ground on 3.9 YPC. Historically in this cross state rivalry, Duke has topped Wake Forest by double digits just ONCE since 2000. The projected score based on the spread and total is right around Duke 28-16. We just don’t see this Blue Devil offense that’s barely scored more than that in the last 3 games getting to that number. Wake keeps this close enough to cover.

ASA top play 10* on: #546 Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 vs. Denver Nuggets – 8:10 PM ET - We like the situation to back the Wolves at home here as they are coming off a loss to the Hawks and playing with revenge from last year’s playoffs series loss to Denver. Minnesota actually played well in Atlanta the other night but couldn’t overcome some hot shooting by the Hawks. Minnesota shot 49% from the field overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Denver is 4-0 to the start the season but we’re not sold on their record as it’s come against the Lakers, Grizzlies, Thunder and Jazz. Only one of those wins comes against a team with a winning record and two of those wins are against teams with a combined 1-7 SU record. The Wolves were 22-19 SU at home last season with an average Margin of Victory of +0.9PPG while the Nuggets weren’t a great road team with a 19-22 SU record -3.1PPG. Denver may have a top 10 offensive efficiency rating this season, but the Wolves are 7th in defensive efficiency. Last season Karl-Anthony Towns missed all four regular season meetings with the Nuggets and he’ll have a big impact in this game that Minnesota has had circled since last season’s playoffs. Grab the points.

#303 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5 over Central Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This game opened with NIU as a 3 point favorite and has jumped to -5 and we agree with that move. We have the Huskies closer to a 7 point chalk in our power ratings so we still feel there is value on the road favorite. CMU has 2 MAC wins this year vs Akron and EMU and both were tight games with the Chippewas winning by 7 and 3 respectively. Those are 2 of the worst teams in the country both rated outside the top 115 in our power ratings. CMU’s 2 MAC losses came at the hands of Buffalo & Ball State, who are both ranked outside the top 100 and have a combined record of 5-11. NIU has played the much tougher MAC slate and has a record of 3-1 and they are very close to being undefeated in league play with their only loss coming by 2 points vs Toledo, the best team in the conference. The Huskies beat Ohio by 10 points as well who is rated as the 3rd best team in the MAC. Northern & CMU have faced 2 common opponents in league play (ECU & Akron) and while Central beat those 2 teams by a combined 10 points, Northern Illinois beat them by a combined 48 points. We have the advantage at QB and on defense in this game with Northern. Senior QB Lombardi is a veteran and in MAC play he’s completed over 63% of his passes in all 4 games with 5 TD’s and 0 interceptions. CMU starting QB Bauer, who was the back up to start the season, is completing 58% of his passes this season and on MAC play vs 4 very poor teams he has 4 TD’s and 6 interceptions. Defensively NIU ranks in the top 25 nationally in YPG & YPP allowed. Central Michigan ranks 91st and 122nd in those 2 categories. On the season NIU has a +0.4 YPP differential, +32 YPG differential, and a +24 point differential. CMU has a -1.4 YPP differential, -70 YPG differential, and a -62 point differential. The Huskies by at least a TD in this one.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:10 PM ET - We were not high on the Warriors heading into the season and nothing on the court has changed that opinion. The Warriors were atrocious on the road last season with a 11-30 SU record and an average point differential of minus -4.3PPG which was 8th worst in the NBA. Tonight, they are playing the second end of a back-to-back and face a rested Pelicans team playing their second straight home game. The Pels have already beaten two playoff teams from a season ago with a 7-point win in Memphis and a 9-point home victory over the 76ers. Despite missing Zion Willamson all of last season and Brandon Ingram for a portion of the season the Pels still put together a 27-14 SU home record with an average +/- of +5PPG. Last season at home the Pelicans beat the Warriors twice, once by 9-points and once by 45. Golden State is still a marquee team and opponents ‘get up’ every time they face the Warriors and you can bet the Pelicans bring their ‘A’ game tonight. Lay the short number.

#262 ASA PLAY ON 8* Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Patriots are coming off a big win over the Bills last week but will come crashing back down to earth against this Dolphins team. The Pats are 2-5 SU this season and 3-7 SU their last ten games. One of their losses earlier this season was at home to this Dolphins team 17-24 as a +1 point home underdog. Miami dominated that game by more than the final score as they averaged 6.4 yards per play compared to 4.1YPP for the Pats. The interesting note to this game is that the Patriots defensive scheme in the first meeting featured their best end rusher in Judon and best cover corner in Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez was used to blanket Dolphins WR Hill in the first meeting and held the All-Pro to 40 yards on 5 receptions. Without those two defenders we expect the #1 rated Miami offense to explode for a huge number in this one. Miami is 1st in yards per game at 462, 1st in yards per play at 7.9, 1st in rushing and 1st in passing. Wait, did we mention they average 34.3PPG which is also the highest number in the NFL. New England ranks in the bottom third in the NFL in most key offensive categories including scoring at 14.4PPG. Miami is coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV to the Eagles and will pound their AFC East rival by 2 or more TD’s this weekend.

#253 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jags -2 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - How the Steelers have a 4-2 record we have no idea. They’ve been outgained in every game this season. They are just the 2nd team since 1970 with a winning record through 6 games after being outgained in all 6. As you might expect based on those numbers, Pittsburgh is 26th in the NFL in YPP differential and every team below them has a losing record. The offense is bad ranking 31st in total offense, 28th in rush offense, and 25th in pass offense. They have topped 300 yards of total offense just once this season and that was facing a poor Raider defense. The Steelers are 2nd in the NFL in turnover margin which has helped their cause but can’t be counted on from week to week. The Jags are rolling right now. They’ve won 4 straight games both SU & ATS and they’ve had 10 days to get ready for this one after beating the Saints on the road last Thursday night. Jacksonville should control the ground game here as Pittsburgh’s defense weakness is stopping the run. They rank 28th in the NFL allowing 142 YPG on the ground and Jax is putting up 114 YPG rushing. On the flip side, the Steelers have been terrible on the ground barely rushing for 80 YPG. Pittsburgh is averaging 61.0 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponent, 31st in the league while Jacksonville is averaging 32.9 more rushing yards per game than their opponent, eighth in the league. Jags QB Lawrence is a bit banged up but has had extra time as we mentioned and practiced this week so we expect him to play. Big edge at QB and in the running game for Jacksonville so we’ll lay it.

#193 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -14.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wisconsin’s going to have all kinds of trouble moving the ball and putting points in the board in this game. Versus the 2 best defenses they’ve faced this season, Iowa & Rutgers, they scored a total of 23 offensive points in those 2 games while averaging just 4.4 YPP. Last week vs a below average Illinois team UW was down 21-7 entering the 4th quarter and scored 18 unanswered points to pick up a tight win. Their back up QB Locke is now under center for Wisconsin after starter Mordecai broke his hand in the Iowa game. While Locke was solid in his first start last week vs an Illinois defense that ranks 81st in total defense. Now they face the best defense they’ve seen this season, but a longshot in our opinion, ranking 2nd in YPP allowed (3.8 YPP) and 3rd nationally in scoring defense (10.5 PPG allowed). The Bucks held a very good PSU offense, who was averaging 41 PPG entering last week’s game in Columbus, to only 12 points (with their final TD coming with 29 seconds left in the game) on just 3.5 YPP. They held PSU’s rushing attack to just 1.9 YPC and if they duplicate that on Saturday, Wisconsin is in huge trouble. On the other side OSU had some decent success last week scoring 20 points vs a high level PSU stop unit we have rated much better than Wisconsin’s. The Badgers defense is way down from previous editions with no big playmakers in the front 7. Their run defense ranks 52nd nationally after sitting in the top 10 each of the previous 4 seasons. We’re not sure they’ll be able to hold up in the trenches on either side of the ball. The OSU offense is starting to find their rhythm under new QB McCord as they average 6.6 YPP (25th nationally) and prior to last week’s game vs PSU they had scored at least 35 points in 4 of their previous 5 games. Prior to topping Penn State by 8, the Buckeyes had won each of their previous 3 Big 10 games by at least 20 points. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - This is a great early season situation to back the Pelicans at home facing the unrested Knicks. New York is off a hard fought game last night in Atlanta making this the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in four nights. Last night the Knicks had a tight rotation with essentially 8 players getting all the minutes so fatigue becomes a factor in this one. New Orleans got off to a great start to the season with a road win on Oct 25th in Memphis. This will be their home opener where the Pels were 27-15 SU with an average +/- of plus 4.8PPG last season. New Orleans achieved that record despite not having Zion Williamson for the season and missing Brandon Ingram for 37 games. In the season opener they had their starting five in place for the 111-104 win over Memphis where they dominated the glass with a 52-37 rebound advantage. This game has blowout written all over it. Back the Pelicans at home here.

#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida +14.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The bottom line here is that Georgia has been overvalued in the betting markets all season long, hence the 1-5-1 ATS record to date. The Bulldogs have played an extremely soft schedule without a quality win on their resume. This team was bound to see a regression this season after heavy losses to the NFL and the loss of their O-coordinator. Georgia has impressive offensive/defensive statistics, ranking top 12 in many of the main categories but again, who have they faced? Not one of the offenses the Bulldogs have faced will be as good as this Gator offense. The best yards per game offense the Dawgs have faced was UAB, the other five FBS teams rank 79th or worst in total O. The same can be said about the misleading Georgia offensive statistics. They have faced four defenses that rank 84th or worse, three of which are 119th or worse. Now the Bulldogs will face a Florida defense that is 36th in total D allowing 345YPG. Florida has a top 10 rushing D in terms of success rate and can limit the Dawgs rushing attack without committing more players to the box. The Gators have two quality foes on their resume as they faced Utah in the opening game of the season and also hosted Tennessee. Florida is in the upper third statistically in most offensive categories and thrives in their passing game. That may be surprising with former Wisconsin QB Mertz under center. But Mertz has played well for the Gators with 12 TD’s to just 2 INT’s this season while completing 76% of his attempts. Mertz is currently the top rated QB in the SEC when it comes to 3rd downs. Mertz shouldn’t face too much pressure either as the Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in pass rush. Georgia will be without their best offensive weapon in TE Bowers which will make things difficult for QB Beck playing his first big away from home (neutral site game). With two losses this is the Gators Super Bowl, and we like them to keep this close throughout.

#190 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State -17 over Houston, Saturday at 12 PM ET - KSU is destroying everyone at home this season. They just beat a solid TCU team 41-3 last week at home almost 600 yards to 300 for TCU. The Wildcats are 21-9 ATS last 30 home games and 4-0 SU at home this year winning by an average score of 43-12. Houston is in a rough situational spot here. They are off a huge home game vs Texas which was considered by Houston fans (and players) as their biggest game of the season. It has been 20+ years since the Cougars were able to take on the in state big boy but now that they have moved to the Big 12, this was their one shot before Texas moves on to the SEC. Texas (-23.5 on the road) jumped out to a 21-0 lead scoring TD’s on 3 of their first 4 possessions and it looked like a blowout. The Horns lost their starting QB Ewers to an injury in the third quarter and Houston made a valiant comeback before losing 31-24. That game took a huge toll physically and emotionally on this Houston team and now they have to go on the road and play a very good team in a tough venue. The Cougars are 0-2 SU on the road this year including a loss @ Rice and 21 point loss @ Texas Tech. On top of that, this is a terrible match up for Houston. The Wildcats are very physical in the trenches on both sides of the ball and Houston is not. KSU ranks 4th nationally rushing at 233 YPG and Houston is 92nd vs the run so the Cats should run wild on Saturday. KSU ran for 343 yards last week in a TCU defense that ranked 38th nationally stopping the run coming into the game allowing only 126 YPG rushing. Now the Wildcats face a defense that can’t stop the run, as we mentioned, and might be out of gas. On the flip side, Houston is a poor running team ranking 108th rushing for just 117 YPG and KSU only allows 108 YPG rushing so the Cats should absolutely control the line of scrimmage here which is key. Houston will be a one dimensional offense a very good KSU defense. These teams have played 2 common opponents this season and we have drastically different results. KSU beat TCU 41-3 and Texas Tech 38-21 and outgained those 2 by a combined 242 yards. Houston lost to both TCU 36-13 and Texas Tech 49-28 and they were outgained in those 2 games by a combined 210 yards. Houston gets rolled in this one.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +6.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with a Nets team off a home loss, while the Mavs are off a road win. Dallas got a 7-point win over the young San Antonio Spurs who won just 22 games a year ago. Brooklyn took a contender in the Eastern Conference down to the wire and lost by 1-point to the Cavaliers. The Nets suffered that close loss despite their best players having off nights. Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and Spencer Dinwiddie led the Nets in scoring a year ago at 26.1PPG, 16.6PPG and 16.5PPG respectively. Between the 3 of them in the opener they managed just 37-total points. Those players will see a dramatic improvement in their scoring tonight seeing they just faced a Cavs team that was 1st in defensive efficiency a year ago. Dallas by comparison was 23rd in the league in DEFF a season ago. The Nets had a winning record on the road last season at 22-19 with a +/- of -1.3PPG. Dallas at home was 23-18 SU with an average Margin of Victory of +2.7PPG. Last season the Mavs were the worst home favorite in the NBA with a 10-23-2 ATS record. As an away dog the Nets were a profitable 15-11 ATS. Easy call to grab the points with Brooklyn

ASA NBA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Clearly this is a big marquee match up of two of the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference this season and both have made big news in the offseason. The Bucks made a blockbuster trade and brought in Damian Lillard, the 76ers were dealing with distractions in James Harden. A great side story to this game is the new head coaches for both teams. The 76ers brought in former Raptors coach Nick Nurse (I desperately wanted the Bucks to hire him) while the Bucks hired first time head coach Adrian Griffin. Griffin was an assistant under Nurse in Toronto and won a ring in 2019. In regard to tonight’s game. The Bucks may have an adjustment period with Dame in the lineup with Giannis as you have two Alpha males that averaged over 31PPG a season ago. The 76ers played without Harden enough though so they really won’t have a tough time adjusting in this opener. The Bucks were 33-11 SU at home a season ago with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Philadelphia had the second-best road record a year ago at 29-18 SU with a plus/minus of +2.9PPG. The Underdog covered 3 of four last year in this series as every game but one was close. In fact, the dog won 3 of the four outright. This Sixers roster is still very good with a budding star in Maxey, an MVP candidate in Embiid and solid vets as a supporting cast in Beverley, Harris and Tucker. A sneaky good addition to the roster is Kelly Oubre Jr who can be a game changer when motivated. We like the veteran coach to have the upper hand tonight in what should be a close game throughout. Grab the points.

#42 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals -115) over Anaheim Ducks, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET -The Bruins are 6-0 this season and only one of the 6 victories was by less than 2 goals. Boston's average margin of victory this season is exactly 2 goals and they are allowing just 1 goal per game. Conversely, the Ducks are 2-4 this season but, other than 1 high-scoring win, Anaheim has been held to scoring just 1.4 goals per game in their other 5 games. We simply can not envision the Ducks being able to do much in the offensive zone in this one given those numbers plus the way the Bruins have been playing. That said, this one is likely another dominating Boston win and we look for the Bruins to improve to 7-0 with another victory by a multi-goal margin. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Boston at a small money price in this one is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* BOSTON CELTICS -3 at NY Knicks – 7:10 PM ET - If you missed our Futures bet article, we had the Celtics over their win total this season. The Celtics went through a major overhaul of their roster BUT the players they brought in are selfless and will conform to the Boston way much quicker than others might. That’ the genius of GM Brad Stevens who knows he had a core to get to a Championship series, he just needed a few other parts to win it all. Those key pieces are Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. This team won’t miss a beat and will open the season with a big win over the rival Knicks. Including the playoffs, the Celtics were 31-19 SU on the road with an average +/- of +2.9PPG which was best in the league. New York pretty much stood pat with their roster in the offseason with a team that went 47-35 SU and owned the 7th best overall Margin of Victory of +2.9PPG. Boston and New York were very similar in terms of offensive efficiency with both ranking in the top 4 but defensively it wasn’t close as the Celtics finished the year 3rd in DEFF while the Knicks were 19th. The Knicks beat the C’s 3 straight in the series, all as underdogs but we like Boston to open this season with a W.

ASA NBA top play on: LA Lakers +5.5 at Denver Nuggets – 7:30PM ET - The Nuggets swept the Lakers out of the Playoffs last season, but all four games were decided by 11-points or less. Three of the four games had a final margin of 6-points or less. A couple things we know for certain tonight, which we may not know in the regular season, is that LeBron and Anthony Davis are both eager to play. Nuggets head coach Malone had some things to say about the Lakers after they swept them last season and apparently the Lakers took offense. In reality, talk is cheap, and that motivation will only last early in the game and then it’s business as usual. We do like the Lakers' improvements to their roster. Gabe Vincent gives them another playmaking guard that can shoot. Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince add to their depth along with Christian Wood. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road a season ago with an average plus/minus of -2.1PPG. Denver was 34-7 SU at home in the regular season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. The Lakers made solid strides in the second half of the season, especially defensively as they finished the year allowing just 1.140-points per possession. The Nuggets lost two key components to their roster with the departure of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green while the Lakers got stronger with their additions. Don’t be surprised if LA wins this game outright.

#101 ASA TOP PLAY ON New Mexico State +2.5 over Louisiana Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We like to take a strong look at underdogs that have a better rushing attack and we expect to control the trenches. That’s what we have here. La Tech is a poor rushing team that has been outgained on the ground in every game but one this season. If we take out their game vs FCS opponent Northwestern State, the Bulldogs only average 109 YPG rushing (108th nationally) on only 3.5 YPC. On the other side of the ball their rush defense is poor as well ranking 119th in the country allowing 200 YPG on the ground 5.0 YPC. That’s despite facing a fairly easy slate of rush offenses including 3 teams outside the top 100 in rushing. La Tech has faced 2 teams ranked inside the top 50 in rushing this year, Nebraska and North Texas, and those 2 teams rolled up 312 and 249 yards on the ground respectively. Tuesday they host a NM State team that ranks 2nd in the nation averaging 6.1 yards per carry and puts up over 200 YPG on the ground. Despite their success on the ground, the Aggies are not one dimensional as they pass for over 235 YPG as well and average a whopping 7.0 YPP which is 5th in the nation behind only Washington, Oregon, LSU, and USC. The Aggies record is 5-3 yet they’ve outgained all but 1 opponent (Liberty who is 7-0) on a YPP basis. NM State has a YPP differential of +1.3 and they are well coached under former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill. Their defense isn’t great, but it’s respectable allowing 5.7 YPP. Since their bye in late September, NMSU has won 3 in a row by an average margin of +17 PPG covering all 3. La Tech has been a home favorite only 7 times since the start of the 2020 season and they have covered only 2 of those games. During that same time span they have played 15 home games (FBS only) and they have a SU record of 7-8 in those games. We like the dog to win this game outright.

ASA top play on 10* San Francisco 49ers -7 at Minnesota Vikings 8:20 PM ET - Let’s start with the fact that the 49ers are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL while the Vikings are one of the worst. San Franisco is 2nd in the league in rushing attempts and 7th in yards per rush at 4.5 per carry. The Vikings are 32nd in rushing attempts per game and 21st in yards per rush at 4.0. You simply cannot be one-dimensional against a defense of this Niners caliber and expect to compete. Not to mention, the Vikings are without their best overall offensive player in WR Jefferson. San Francisco rates top 10 in most offensive and defensive categories while the Vikings rank around league average or worse. The Niners have some injuries on offense, but this loaded roster can overcome those shortcomings. The Vikings cannot. It’s well documented how Minnesota QB Cousins has struggled on MNF with a 2-10 SU record. Not only is his Monday night record bad, but his yards per game passing, interception rate and touchdown percentage, are also much worse. San Francisco is coming off a loss and are 7-4 ATS their last eleven in that situation, 3-1 ATS their last four with an average margin of victory in those games of +7.8PPG. Lastly, the 49ers were just favored by -8.5 points at the Browns who have the best defense in the NFL and are now laying less at the middle of the pack Vikings.

#472 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re siding with the Eagles at home in a very solid situational spot in our opinion. We’re getting one of the top teams in the NFL, at home, and coming off a loss as a favorite. Philly lost @ NY Jets last Sunday 20-14 but they dominated the flyboys in the stat sheet. The Birds outgained the Jets by over 100 yards and by +1.0 YPP. They lost the turnover battle 4-0 which was the difference in the game despite dominating the stats. The Jets scored half their points off Philly turnovers including an 8 yard TD drive with under 2:00 minutes remaining after the Eagles turned the ball over with the lead. We think Miami is overvalued based on their blowout wins vs bad teams. Since beating the LA Chargers by 2 points to open the season on a late TD the Miami wins have come vs New England, Denver, NY Giants, and Carolina. Those 4 teams have a combined record of just 3-21! The one high level team Miami played this year @ Buffalo, the Fins were destroyed 48-20. Miami has great offensive stats, but again, their opponents have been weak and their 70-20 win over Denver (Fins had over 700 total yards) is really making their overall stats look better than they actually are. They’ve already faced 3 of the bottom 6 defenses in the NFL. Philly’s defense is solid ranked in the top 10. Speaking of top 10, the Eagles are one of only 4 teams (SF, KC, Detroit, and Philly) that are ranked in the top 10 in both total offense and defense. We like this defense (#2 in the NFL allowing 65 YPG) to slow down Miami’s #1 rushing attack (181 YPG) and make the Fins one dimensional which is key. On the other side, Philly’s offense (#2 in the NFL) should have success running the ball vs a Miami defense thar ranks 20th vs the run and 20th in total defense. This will be just the 3rd home game for Philadelphia this season (2-0 so far) and they’ve won 14 of their last 17 home games. We like them to win this one by at least a FG.

#451 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - If we were to give you the stats of last week’s Falcons/Commanders game after the fact, we’re pretty sure you would have bet a large sum of money on Atlanta. The Falcons outgained the Commanders 402 total yards to 193 and 5.1YPP to 4.3YPP but still lost 16-24. Atlanta had a +13 minute time of possession advantage too but 3 turnovers to 0 was too much for the Birds to overcome. Tampa Bay’s offense was exposed last week by the Lions in a 6-20 loss at home where they managed just 251 total yards of offense and 4.7YPP. The Bucs offense ranks 25th in total yards per game (291) gained and yards per play 4.9YPP. Tampa is one dimensional on offense with a rushing attack that averages just 3.0YPC which is last in the league. The Bucs will have a tough time scoring in this game with a running game that generates very little success rate and a passing O that will be facing a Falcons pass D that is 4th in the league. Atlanta allows just 179PYPG and ranks 11th in opposing QB’s completion percentage. Atlanta runs for 119YPG which is 10th best in the NFL. QB Ridder has thrown for over 630 total yards in the Falcons last two games with 3 TD/3INT’s. Atlanta has a net yards per play differential of +0.3YPP compared to the Bucs negative differential of minus -0.3YPP. The Falcons should be a rush-doubling underdog in this one which is one of the stronger NFL angles dating back to the mid-1980’s

#348 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Atlantic +2.5 over UTSA, Saturday at 6 PM ET - UTSA is still getting priced too high in the market in our opinion. Our power ratings have FAU as a slight favorite at home in this game. The Roadrunners were very good last season with an 11-3 overall record and it seems the oddsmakers are still relying on last year’s results to set numbers this season. UTSA is just 3-3 on the year and only 2-4 ATS. They did miss their starting QB Harris for 2 games this season but the offense hasn’t been great with him in the lineup. The Roadrunners are coming off back to back deceivingly easy wins which sets this one up nicely. They beat Temple and UAB handily each of the last 2 weeks but UTSA was outgained in both of those games. Those 2 opponents have a combined 4-10 record and turned the ball over 5 times in those 2 games (UTSA had 1 turnover). This FAU team is also 3-3 on the season but they’ve played the tougher schedule already facing road games @ Clemson and @ Illinois. The Owls are improving and seem to be peaking under new HC Herman (former Texas head coach) and they are finally looking comfortable with his new schemes. Since getting rolled @ Clemson in September, the Owls have covered 3 straight and won the last 2 SU vs Tulsa and South Florida. Last week they played their most complete game of the season rolling over a decent USF team who lost to Bama this year by only 7 points. In last week’s game, FAU was a 2 point dog on the road @ South Florida and won 56-14 putting up almost 600 yards on 7.5 YPP. QB Richardson, former Central Michigan starter, took over for an injured starter (Thompson) after the Clemson loss and he’s impressed with almost 800 yards passing, a 67% completion rate, and 5 TD’s in those 3 starts. He’s been getting help from his running game as well with FAU topping 200 yards rushing in each of the last 2 games. The Owls have played the strong strength of schedule and still have a better YPP differential and point differential when compared to UTSA. This Florida Atlantic team is playing their best football of the season and getting points at home vs a UTSA team that has been throwing up some false final scores as of late. Take the points with the home team.

#368 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -12 over Eastern Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We’ve been anti EMU all season long and for good reason. The Eagles have a 4-3 record but that record is as deceiving as it gets. Their wins have come vs Howard (FCS), Kent (we have power rated 133rd – last in FBS), UMass (power rated 129th) and Ball State (power rated 121st). In last week’s 28-14 win vs Kent, the Eagles were actually outgained 343 to 218 by a Golden Flashes team that was getting outgained by an average of 221 to 460 coming into that game. EMU benefitted from 3 Kent turnovers including a pick 6. That’s vs a Kent team that had been outscored 202-42 in their 6 games vs FBS opponents this season. So EMU was facing what was the worst team in college football, they were outplayed by a lot on the stat sheet, and it was a home game for Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have been outgained in each of their wins (except Howard) by teams we have rated in the bottom 10 to 15 in college football. They are now on the road vs a NIU team that has been playing very well. Last week the Huskies beat a very good Ohio team (rated 2nd best team in the MAC) by 10 points and outgained them by +1.2 YPP. A week prior to that they roasted Akron 55-14 and before that lost @ Toledo (#1 team in the MAC) by just 2 points. The Husky defense has been solid all year ranking in the top 25 in both total defense and YPP allowed. They will have no problem whatsoever vs an Eastern Michigan offense that has been brutal all season long. The Eagles rank outside the top 115 in scoring offense, total offense, rushing offense, and passing offense. NIU has played the much tougher schedule to date and the Huskies have a +0.5 YPP differential while EMU has a -1.4 YPP differential. Northern controlled the trenches last week vs a top notch Ohio defense (130 yards rushing to 95 for Ohio) and they should own the line of scrimmage again this week. The Huskies rushing attack has really kicked it in gear over the last 4 games averaging 215 YPG on the ground and they are facing an EMU defense that allows over 200 YPG rushing this season. Kent, who was averaging 79 YPG rushing entering last week, had 163 yards on the ground vs this Eagle defense. NIU is better, and quite a bit better, in every facet of the game. We’re getting a decent line here (lower than it should be) because EMU has a faulty record as we discussed. If Eastern wasn’t 9th in the nation in turnover margin (+1 per game) their record would look quite different. This should be a blowout.

#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Sam Houston State -5 over Florida International, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Wait a minute. The 0-6 team is favored over the 3-4 team? Not only that, the winless team is favored by more than a FG. Hmmm. We agree SHSU should be favored at home in this one and we’ll side with them here. First these teams are heading in opposite directions right now. FIU had 3 game winning streak back in early to mid September and after that run they have lost 3 straight by a combined score of 99-37. They also failed to cover all 3 of those games by a combined 50 points! The Panthers were in a great spot to pick up a win at home last Thursday facing a bad UTEP team that was down to their 4th string QB. FIU lost that game by 13 points and were outgained by almost 100 yards. Despite their overall record, Sam Houston is 3-2-1 ATS on the season. Their offense was putrid the first 3 games but they faced some tough competition in BYU, Air Force, and Houston. The Bearkats only scored 10 total points in those 3 games. However, over their last 3 games this offense has improved dramatically scoring 57 points and averaging 377 YPG. That improvement should continue here vs an FIU defense that ranks 117th in total defense and 118th in YPP allowed. SHSU has played the much tougher schedule (58th SOS compared to 132nd for FIU) and this is just their 3rd home game of the season. They’ve played quite well in their other 2 home tilts losing to undefeated Air Force 13-3 holding the #1 rushing team in the nation 80 yards and 1.3 YPC below their averaging. In their other home game they lost in OT to Jacksonville State (5-2 record) but the Bearkats were +5 first downs and +40 yards in that game. This team is overdue for a win and they know this is one of the best shots. Look for a great effort and a win and cover from Sam Houston State.

#75 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line (-1.5 goals -115) over San Jose Sharks, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - The Hurricanes are highly motivated after their first loss of the season and we knew we were going to come with a strong play here after that Canes loss. This Carolina team is again loaded this season while it looks like San Jose will be one of the weakest teams in the league again this season. Last season the Sharks finished with the fewest wins (22 out of 82 games) in the entire league while the Hurricanes were 2nd to only the Bruins in terms of best record in the entire league as the latter had a historical regular season. So far this season the Sharks are 0-1-1 but they should be 0-2-0 with two blowout losses as they lost their opener 4 to 1 and then lost their 2nd game by only 2-1 in the shootout but they were outshot in the game 52 to 21. Complete dominance! Speaking of dominance, a key to this play is that Carolina has already scored an average of 4.3 games in regulation time of their 3 games. This is a dangerous Hurricanes offensive attack once again. The Sharks, on the other hand, have scored just 1 goal in each of their first two games this season! Carolina is sure to respond off the Saturday loss and San Jose had seen 8 of their last 9 losses (dating back to last season) come by 2 or more goals before they were fortunate to hang around in the 2-1 loss to Colorado Saturday. They will not be so fortunate here against a determined and highly motivated road team. The Canes are a massive money line favorite (-300 on the road!) for a reason here and you can also see why the odds suggest a good probability that the winner of this game in San Jose will win it by 2 or more goals. Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Carolina at a very reasonable low price in this one is the value play here.

#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - TB has been a surprise with a 3-1 record to start the season. However a deep dive reveals they are +7 in turnover margin in their 3 wins who have come vs Minnesota, Chicago, and New Orleans who have a combined record of 5-10. Despite their winning record, the Bucs are getting outgained on a YPP basis this season. The one good team they’ve faced was Philadelphia who rolled TB 25-11 and outgained them by 2.1 YPP and that game was in Tampa. The Lions had a lot of publicity coming into the season and we were wary of this team. Mainly on the defensive side of the ball after finishing 30th or lower in YPP allowed in each of the last 3 seasons. They’ve proven us wrong so far this season as this Detroit team looks very good on both sides of the ball. They are one of two teams that currently ranks inside the top 6 in both total offense and total defense. The other is San Francisco. DVOA has Detroit ranked as the 3rd best team in the NFL behind only San Francisco and Buffalo. They are ranked the 4th best offense and 3rd best defense per DVOA. The Lions only loss was in OT vs Seattle and the Lions outgained the Seahawks 6.5 YPP to 5.9 YPP in that game but had 3 turnovers (0 for Seattle). Detroit has one of the best YPP differentials in the NFL at +1.1 and they’ve been a money making juggernaut covering 13 of their last 15 games dating back to last season. Lay the FG here.

#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis Colts +4 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for Jacksonville. They just played back to back weeks in London so they’ve been overseas for 2 weeks. Coming home to play the next Sunday will be tough as the body clocks will take until mid week to adjust back. Also, being away for 2 weeks and then coming home is a distraction in itself having to get caught up on things back at home, seeing family again, etc… The Jags were 2-0 in their London trip but they were outgained in both games on a YPP basis vs Atlanta and Buffalo. In their win over the Falcons the Jaguars were gifted with 3 Atlanta turnovers, including a 61 yard pick 6, but Jacksonville only averaged 4.7 YPP. Last week vs Buffalo, they caught the Bills in a perfect spot after rolling over Miami a week earlier in a huge AFC East game. Then the Bills waited until Friday to travel to London while Jax had been their for a week plus already. Even with that, the Bills averaged 7.2 YPP while holding the Jags to 5.8. The Jags are 0-2 SU & ATS at home this year where they have very little home field advantage. As a starting QB, Trevor Lawrence is 0-5 ATS as a home favorite winning only 1 of those games outright. Indy is playing well right now. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss coming vs the Rams in OT in a game the Colts ran 20 fewer offensive snaps and still took LA to overtime. These 2 met in the first game of the season and while Jacksonville won 31-21, the Colts were starting rookie QB Richardson in his first every start and Indy led 21-17 with just over 5 minutes remaining in the game. Both teams are 3-2 on the season but the Colts have a better point differential (although very close) and a better YPP differential. We think Indy has a very good shot at the upset and if not, we’re getting some generous points.

ASA play 8* on #251 Baltimore Ravens -5 vs. Tennessee Titans, Sunday 9:30AM ET - Get in the action early when the Ravens square off against the Titans in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium overseas. Baltimore is coming off a gut wrenching 10-17 last minute loss to the Steelers last weekend and should bounce back here. Baltimore will be much better prepared for this game after getting smoked in their only other trip to London (7-44 loss to the Jags). The Ravens changed their travel schedule and got to London on Monday while Tennessee will get there on Friday similar to Buffalo last week. The Ravens are getting healthy and will have their entire starting OL playing for the 1st time since week 1. Tennessee has some injury issues of their own with NT Teair Tart questionable. Tart is their top run stuffer and it showed last week when the Colts gouged the Titans for 194 rushing yards on 34 carries. On the subject of rushing. The Ravens average 4.5 yards per carry (10th), 146 rushing yards p/game (4th) and complement the ground game with a passing attack that owns a 69.6% completion percentage (5th) and throws for 6.6 yards per attempt. Overall, the Ravens are 11th in offensive DVOA. The Titans have some solid rush defensive numbers ranking 9th in rushing YPG allowed and 7th in rush yards per attempt. But against the two other running teams similar to Baltimore (Indy & Cleveland) they lost and failed to cover in each. Tennessee doesn’t do anything well offensively ranking 24th in total YPG, 22nd in DVOA, 18th in rushing YPG and 28th in passing YPG. It will be tough sledding against this Ravens D that is 2nd in YPG allowed at 266.4YPG, 2nd in YPP defense allowing 4.1YPP and 3rd in passing yards allowed per game. In fact, the Ravens rank 2nd in defensive DVOA, only behind the Cleveland Browns and ahead of teams like Dallas and San Fran. Lay the points with Baltimore.

#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Air Force -11 over Wyoming, Saturday at 7 PM ET - There is a reason AF is favored by a full 10 points over a Wyoming team that currently has a 5-1 record. The Cowboys have been as lucky as you can get to reach that record this season. They’ve been outgained by an average of 52 YPG and their offense is one of the worst in college football averaging only 325 YPG (114th). They’ve had a favorable schedule with all home games with the exception of their game @ Texas, a 31-10 Wyoming loss, and in that game they caught the Longhorns the week after they beat Alabama on the road. They have not been on the road in full month and we think they’re running into a buzzsaw here. Air Force is 5-0 on the season and they are coming off a bye week. The Falcons rank #1 nationally averaging 330 YPG on the ground and they are facing a Wyoming defense that ranks 76th defending the run and 78th in YPC allowed. They’ve allowed at least 200 yards on the ground in 2 of their last 3 games and we think they’ll struggle to stop the rested Falcons here. The AF offense is humming scoring at least 39 points in every game but one this season. Defensively they’ve been elite ranking in the top 10 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing YPG allowed, and passing YPG allowed. Wyoming will have trouble keeping up in this game with a poor offense vs that defense. This is also a revenger for Air Force after losing by 3 points @ Wyoming last year as a -16.5 point favorite. The Cowboys are playing for the 7th consecutive week and are off an upset home win over Fresno State (Wyoming was +6 at home in that game). The Falcons have won every game this season by double digits by an average score of 37-12. They have quietly won 19 of their last 22 games with 15 of those wins coming by at least 10 points. Lay it.

#70 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line (-1.5 goals -120) over Montreal Canadiens, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Maple Leafs are highly motivated after another tough exit from the post-season last spring. This Toronto team is again loaded this season while it looks like Montreal will be one of the weaker teams in the league again this season. Last season the Canadiens finished dead last in the division while the Leafs were 2nd to only the Bruins as the latter had a historical regular season. Montreal lost 27 of 41 road games last season while the Maple Leafs won 27 of 41 home games last season. 10 of the Canadiens last 12 losses last season were by 2 or more goals. The last 11 meetings between these clubs has seen the home team win all 11 games and last season Toronto's two home wins over Montreal were by a combined score of 12 to 2. The Maple Leafs are a big money line favorite for a reason here and you can also see why the odds suggest a good probability that the winner of this game in Toronto will win it by 2 or more goals. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Toronto at a very reasonable low price in this one is the value play here.

#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Cowboys +4 at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a rematch of the playoff meeting between these two teams when the Niners won at home 19-12 as a -3.5-point favorite. That game was relatively close throughout with the 49ers averaging 5.1YPP compared to Dallas and their 4.7YPP. These two teams along with Philadelphia are the best of the NFC and we expect this game to be decided by a field goal or less either way. Dallas is 4th in scoring at 31PPG but have largely failed in Red Zone scoring percentage at 36.8%. They have received some scoring help from their defense but clearly the offense is better than their overall numbers. The Cowboys have kept the chains moving by converting 51.61% of their 3rd downs with the 7th best rushing offense in terms of total yards. QB Dak Prescott also has the 6th best completion percentage in the NFL. Obviously, San Francisco has incredible offensive numbers ranking 3rd in rushing YPG and 9th in passing YPG. Defensively these two teams have plenty of similarities and if you look you’ll see both rate top 5 in most key categories. The one slight advantage the Cowboys have will be in pressuring Niners QB Purdy as Dallas has the 2nd best sack percentage in the league. These are two very even teams and getting more than a field goal with Dallas is the way to play it.

#466 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +3.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Cincy is living on their past few years because this team isn’t good right now. They rank dead last with a -1.7 yards per play differential. They have 1 win and in that 3 point victory over the Rams they were actually outgained by 1.3 YPP. QB Burrow not close to 100% and that’s obvious. He needs to sit and rest his calf to get healthy but they continue to play him. He’s dead last in the league in QBR and has zero mobility. The Cards were expected by most to be terrible this season. While they only have 1 win, they’ve proven that not to be the case. This team plays hard under new head coach Gannon and believe it or not, offensively Arizona is averaging 1.7 YPP more than the Bengals this season. The last 2 weeks the Cards have played what most consider to be the 2 best teams in the NFC and played well for the most part. The beat the Cowboys here at home by 12 points 2 weeks ago and it was no fluke. Arizona averaged an impressive 7.5 YPP in that game while holding Dallas to just 5.5 YPP. Last week they did lose @ San Francisco by double digits but that was a 5 point game in the 4th quarter. The Bengals are averaging a league low 12 PPG and this is their 2nd straight week on the road after getting roasted @ Tennessee 27-3 last Sunday getting outgained 400 to 211. The Bengals continue to be overvalued on past laurels and have failed to cover the spread in any game this year losing to the number by 53 combined points. We think Zona has a solid shot at the outright win. Take the points.

#453 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Texans +2 at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Houston Texans have clearly been one of the bigger surprise stories this season with rookie QB Stroud playing above expectations. Stroud is 4th in total passing yards at 1,212 with 6 TD’s to zero INT’s. It’s not like he’s throwing short underneath passes either (Ridder) as he ranks 12th in intended air yards. We mention the Falcons QB Ridder who is really struggling with Atlanta’s offense and has a QBR of 29.2 which ranks 31st in the NFL. Ridder has just 744 passing yards with 3 TD’s to 3 INT’s. Atlanta has produced just 13 total points in their last 8 quarters and average just 15.5PPG on the season. In their last two games the Birds have averaged just 2.8 yards per play against the Lions and 5.0YPP last week against the Jaguars who allow 5.4 on the season. Atlanta is 28th in yards per point offensively and 26th in yards per play. The Falcons defense has some solid numbers including a pass defense that allows just 176PYPG but overall, this unit ranks 23rd in defensive DVOA. Houston is 5th in team total yards offensively this season, rank 16th in yards per point and 13th in yards per play. They are averaging 24PPG and coming off a game against a Steeler defense where they managed 451 total yards. In their last two games they have averaged 6.5YPP against the Jags and Steelers. Stroud and the Texans will have time to throw against this Falcons team as they rank 30th in sack percentage. Lastly, the Falcons are coming off a game overseas and that travel takes a toll on the entire roster. The wrong team is favored here. Bet the Texans.

#401 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan -17.5 over Minnesota, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We see this game playing out very similar to last week’s Michigan win @ Nebraska 45-7. The Husker are actually a better team than Minnesota this year (according to our power ratings) as they dominated the stat sheet @ Minnesota in week 1 but lost 13-10 due to 4 turnovers. Minnesota struggled here last week vs UL Lafayette but won by 11 despite getting outgained 6.7 YPP to 5.3 YPP. ULL held Minnesota to just 347 total yards and the Gophs were lucky to put up 35 points with those yardage numbers. ULL did rush for 180 yards on the Gopher defense which has taken a big step back this season. That’ll be a problem vs the potent Michigan rushing attack that had 249 yards on the ground last week vs a very good Nebraska defense last Saturday. The Wolves were going through the motions their first 3 games off the season which were all easy wins but non-covers. The last 2 weeks vs Big 10 opponents they scored 76 points and held those teams to 14 points combined. Now with their head coach Harbaugh and OC back on the sidelines after missing games early this season due to suspensions, we look for Michigan to roll. Minnesota has played a relatively easy schedule with the best team they played, North Carolina, rolling over the Gophs 31-13 and outgaining them 519 to 303. Their other opponents are Eastern Michigan (bad MAC team), Nebraska (lower tier Big 10 team), Northwestern (lower tier Big 10 team) and UL Lafayette from the Sun Belt. Despite their strength of schedule (62nd) the Gophers have been outgained on the year on both a YPG and YPP basis. Similar to last week’s Michigan game vs Nebraska – Minnesota can’t pass (120th at 149 YPG passing) and you can’t run on Michigan as they are allowing 85 YPG on the ground. Last week a solid rushing team, Nebraska, had 106 yards on the ground and 74 of those came on one run late in the game – the Huskers only TD. On top of that, Minnesota’s top RB Taylor didn’t play last week and it doesn’t look like he’ll be ready for this one. The Wolverines have won 30 of their last 31 regular season games and 25 of those have come by double digits. Michigan can name the score here and we look for a blowout.

#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois, Friday at 8 PM ET - We have Nebraska power rated as the better team in this match up and they are getting just north of the FG. After back to back wins the Huskers were crushed last week at home vs Michigan which wasn’t unexpected as the Wolverines just might be the best team in the country. The Nebraska offense was actually decent averaging 5.9 YPP but only ran 46 offensive snaps to 74 for Michigan. Their defense really impressed us this season but struggled vs one of the top offenses in the country last week. We expect them to bounce back and play very well vs an Illinois offense that ranks 75th nationally in total offense and is averaging just over 21 PPG (105th nationally). After their loss vs Michigan, Cornhusker head coach Matt Rhule held a surprise full pad, full contact practice on Sunday and our word is it was one of their best practices of the season. The Illini were blasted 44-19 @ Purdue last week and that’s a Boiler team that entered that game with only 1 win on the season (by 7 points) vs a bad Va Tech team. Illinois has 2 wins on the season coming by 2 points vs Toledo and by 6 points vs a bad FAU team. We were on the Illini in that game vs FAU and thought it was a perfect spot for them to get back on track vs the Owls who were rolled @ Clemson a week earlier and lost their starting QB in that loss. Illinois was only able to beat FAU 23-17 in a very disappointing performance. Their defense has dropped off drastically this season after losing a number of key players to the NFL. The Illini gave up over 200 yards rushing last week vs Purdue and are giving up 180 YPG on the ground this season (110th). That’s a problem vs a Nebraska offense that is putting up over 200 YPG on the ground (15th nationally) and are continuing with Haaberg at QB who has 255 yards rushing in his 3 starts. Nebraska is much better defensively this season allowing 4.6 YPP (that includes game vs Michigan) compared to the Illini allowing 5.5 YPP. Nebraska really should be 3-2 on the season after completely outplaying Minnesota on the road in week 1 (lost 13-10) with other losses @ Colorado and at home vs Michigan. We give the Huskers a great shot at winning this one outright so we’ll take the points.

#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech +6.5 over Western Kentucky, Thursday at 8 PM ET - WKY is overvalued coming into this one and our power ratings have them as just under a 3 point favorite and they opened -7. It has since dropped a bit but still some solid value on the host La Tech. Western Kentucky is coming off a solid 31-10 win over MTSU however the yardage was much closer than than (444 to 373) and the Blue Raiders had 3 turnovers. MTSU left a number of points on the field getting shut out on downs twice inside WKY territory to go along with their turnover problems. It was actually the first time this season the Hilltoppers (3-2 record) have outgained their opponent (minus FCS competition). Western is averaging 382 YPG on the season (76th nationally) while allowing 472 YPG (130th). They rank 106th defensively allowing 6.2 YPP on the season and they have allowed over 500 yards in 3 of their 4 games vs FBS opponents. So we have a team laying nearly a TD on the road despite being poor on defense. Not a great recipe for success. Their offense has also taken a big step back (-130 YPG compared to last year) after losing their OC in the off season to Washington State. La Tech moved to 3-3 on the season after a road win @ UTEP last Saturday. Their offense has been comparable to WKY averaging 376 YPG but the Bulldogs defense is allowing nearly 100 fewer YPG than the Hilltoppers. The host also has the much better rushing attack (153 YPG on the ground to just 98 YPG for WKY) and they are facing a Hilltopper defense that gives up over 200 YPG on the ground. Western is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks here and on a short week. We’ll take the points with Louisiana Tech at home.

#950 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:08 PM ET - The Brewers set to win huge in this one with a massive pitching edge. The Diamondbacks will have to contend with Milwaukee’s ace Corbin Burnes and this will likely make for a night of misery for Arizona at the plate while the Brewers should enjoy facing a pitcher that was hit hard in September and, overall, has had an unimpressive season. Brandon Pfaadt is a rookie that went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA this season.  Even though his ERA was a more respectable 4.22 since the all-star break, he is coming off a September in which opponents hit .288 against him. This is a tough spot for a young guy like Pfaadt pitching on the road in the first game of the post-season and especially when such a tough veteran pitcher is on the other side.  Unlike Pfaadt, the Brewers Burnes has been top notch this season and also just delivered another strong month of September in terms of being very tough to hit! Burnes has allowed just 8 earned runs on only 19 hits while striking out 33 in the 28.2 innings over his 5 starts since the end of August. A strong stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season and fanned 200 again this season! The Brewers have won 8 of 12 and have scored 5.3 runs a game in last 12 games. The Diamondbacks wrapped the season losing 4 straight games and have scored just 1.2 runs per game last  5 games.  57 of 78 Arizona losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 1.4 runs per game in their last 8 wins. They again shutdown the opposition as Burnes comes up huge here and the Brewers also hold the bullpen edge with ERA ranked 2nd compared to Diamondbacks ERA ranked 18th on the season. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line big in this one.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY GIANTS +2 vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 8:20 PM ET - This is one of those ‘plug your nose’ bets as the Giants have not looked good this season and currently stand 1-2 SU. Clearly a big reason for that losing record is the schedule they’ve faced with games against the Cowboys, 49ers and a better-than-expected Cardinals team. Dallas and San Francisco are arguably the two of the best defenses in the league along with the Browns. So, when you look at the Giants offensive numbers it’s understandable why they are so disappointing. Seattle on the other hand has faced a soft schedule with the Panthers, Rams and Lions. The win in Detroit is solid but the Lions were off a huge MNF win against the Chiefs and simply overlooked this Seahawks team that lost to the Rams in the opener. The Seahawks are 24th in the league in sacks per game and 29th in sack % defense. They don’t possess a pass rush capable of getting to Giants QB Jones. The Giants can get to Hawks QB Smith as the Seattle offensive line has been hit hard with injuries. The Yards Per Play differential for the Giants is not a pretty number as they are minus -1.1YPP, but again look at who they’ve faced. Seattle also has a negative differential as they average 5.6YPP on offense but allow 5.8YPP. Seattle has been a road favorite just 5 times since 2021 and they shouldn’t be laying points here.