ASA NHL PLAY ON 7* Detroit Red Wings Puck Line (+1.5 goals -150) over Florida Panthers, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - So we reduce our star rating from the average 8* to 7* here because of laying a little bit of price to the +1.5 goals on our side. That said, laying 7* on a -160 is the equivalent wager risk amount of laying 10* on a -110. So we are comfortable here because the Red Wings are on home ice and the Panthers have not exactly been crushing teams of late. That said, we will gladly challenge Florida to win this game by a multiple-goal margin. The fact is that the Panthers are 9-6 last 15 games but only 5 of the 9 wins by a multi-goal margin! That means that at a -1.5 price, Florida would be 5-10 last 15 games! As for the Red Wings, they have won 17 of their 34 home games this season and only 9 of the 17 home losses was by a multi-goal margin. That means at +1.5 goals on home ice this season, Detroit is 25-9 on the season! Coming off a rare bad home loss, to the defending champion Avalanche, the Red Wings bounce back here.  They almost always bounce back on home ice when their prior game at home was a multi-goal loss.  Grabbing the 1.5 goals with the home dog Detroit is the play here.

ASA top play 10* on #607 UW Milwaukee +6 vs. Charlotte, 7:30 PM ET - Charlotte has a bit of an advantage having played Saturday while UWM is coming off a game Sunday versus Stetson. These two teams have contrasting styles of play as Milwaukee is 12th in the nation in tempo or pace while Charlotte is one of the slowest at 362. We are fine if Charlotte gets the tempo they want as the dog in a low possession game is always attractive. These two teams come into this post season with different results as the UWM Panthers finished the season on a 3-1 streak after losing to Cleveland State in the Horizon League Tournament. Charlotte on the other hand lost two straight heading into the CUSA Tourney then lost to Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers had played another team from the Horizon earlier this season in Detroit Mercy, who finished 5 games below UWM in conference play, and lost by 21 and won by 2 in OT. The Panthers beat Detroit Mercy twice this season. Charlotte averages 67PPG which makes covering a number as large as 6-points difficult. The 49ers average +/- on the season is +4.1PPG, UW Milwaukee has a +/- of +4.5PPG. The Panthers stay hot and keep this one within the margin.

#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +1.5 over Baylor, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Blue Jays as a slight favorite so we’re getting some value here. Both of these teams played very difficult schedules this season (Baylor 5th SOS / Creighton 13th SOS) and the Jays have the better overall efficiency margin. While both teams average right around 77 PPG, Baylor has a slight edge in offensive efficiency and Creighton has a slight edge in eFG%. These 2 are close offensively. Defensively the Blue Jays are much better this season. They rank 14th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP while Baylor ranks 99th allowing 1.01 PPP. The Bears rank 232nd in eFG% allowed and inside the arc they have been poor defensively ranking 315th. They are, and have been, the worst defense in the Big 12 for the entire season. Struggling to defend inside isn’t a great recipe vs Creighton with 7’1 Kalkbrenner in the middle. Yesterday vs NC State, he was 10 of 13 inside the arc and scored 31 points. Creighton made 64% of their shots inside the arc and should have lots of success again in that area. On the other side, Baylor pretty much relies on the 3 point shot and getting to the FT line. They get very little inside the arc with only 42% of their points which is 358th nationally. Creighton is solid at defending the 3 point line only 13% of their opponents points come from the FT line (3rd least in the country). Baylor will really need to hit a high percentage of triples to win this game in our opinion. We’ll take the better defense and the offense that can score inside and out to win this one. Creighton is the call.

#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -3 over Liberty, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Our concern with Wisconsin in the NIT is would they come with intensity for a program that had been in the NCAA tourney 22 of the previous 23 years. They answered that question last Tuesday rolling over a solid Bradley team by 19 points. The same Bradley team that won the Missouri Velley regular season title over Drake who went to the Dance and nearly upset Miami FL. The Badgers are definitely battle tested playing the 15th most difficult schedule in the country this season. They were just a few plays from comfortably making the NCAA tourney. 5 of their last 6 losses came by 2 points or less or in OT and that was vs a tough Big 10 schedule. Some of their tight losses this year including Kansas in OT, Purdue by 2, Northwestern by 2 & 3 points, Michigan State by 4, and Rutgers by 1. This team seem re-energized last Tuesday as if a stressful weight was lifted off their shoulders. They scored 81 points, their 2nd highest total this season, vs a Bradley defense that ranked #1 in the MVC (efficiency). Liberty had a big win over Villanova which we feel is keeping this line a bit lower than it really should be. It was a 5 point win, however Nova played the game without arguably their 2 best players, Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore. On top of that, Liberty was +7 from the FT line and made 10 three pointers to just 4 for the Wildcats. Thus, the Flames outscored Villanova by 25 points from the FT line + 3 point range and only won by 5. Prior to beating the Wildcats minus their 2 top players, Liberty had played a grand total of 3 teams this season ranked in the top 100 and lost all 3 by double digits. With this line set slow low, we’re really just looking for Wisconsin to win at home and we like them to get it done on Sunday.

#803 ASA TOP PLAY ON Duke -3 over Tennessee, Saturday at 2:40 PM ET - Duke is playing fantastic basketball right now. They’ve won 10 in a row and ran through the ACC tourney rather easily winning 3 games by an average of 15 points per game vs Pitt, Miami, and UVA, all NCAA tourney teams. The Devils then destroyed a solid Oral Roberts team (won by 23) who came into the game with a 30-4 record and a team many thought had a chance to make some waves in this tournament. Since February 1st, this Duke team is rated as the 9th most efficient team in the country and prior to that they were ranked 30th (per Bart Torvik stats). This team is definitely trending in the right direction. Tennessee not so much. They’ve lost 7 of their last 13 games after starting 18-3 and they struggled to beat Louisiana in round one winning by 3 points. Defensively the Vols have remained solid all season but their offense has fallen off a cliff the 2nd half of the season. Since February 1st, Tennessee is ranked outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency and they are now playing without starting PG Zeigler who was their 2nd leading scored and averaged over 5 assists per game along with being their best perimeter defender. Pretty much the opposite of Duke, the Volunteers were ranked #1 nationally in efficiency from the start of the season through the end of January and they’ve dropped to 30th since then. Over their last 5 games Tennessee is scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 65 PPG. For the season on defense they allow 37% shooting and just 26% from deep but over their last 5 that numbers have increased to 43% and 36%. Meanwhile Duke is winning by an average of 15 PPG over their last 5 shooting 49% and allowing 35%. Two teams trending in opposite directions and we’ll take the hot, confident team. Duke is the play.

#798 ASA TOP PLAY ON TCU -5.5 over Arizona State, Friday at 10 PM ET - Rough spot for ASU in this game having just played in Dayton 48 hours ago they are now set for a game in Denver. TCU has been off since last Friday so they should be ready to go in this one. We really liked this Horned Frogs team all season as long as they were healthy. They lost their top player Mike Miles for a stretch of 5 games in early February and went 1-4 in those contests. They were also missing starting forward Peavy for 5 games just prior to Miles going down. When this team was healthy they destroyed Kansas on the road, beat Baylor on the road, topped Texas, and took 2 of 3 from Kansas State all top 3 seeds in this NCAA tourney. They gave a red hot Texas team all they could handle in the Big 12 tourney losing by just 6. This is a very deep Horned Frog team that ranks 13th nationally in bench minutes which should come in handy in the high altitude in Denver facing a Sun Devil team that could be fatigued after playing in the eastern time zone 48 hours ago. ASU is coming off an unreal offensive performance on Wednesday beating Nevada 98-73. As you can expect the Devils shot WAY above their season averages hitting 64% of their shots (they average 42%) and 52% of their 3’s (they average 31%). Despite that effort, this is not a good shooting team ranking outside the top 315 in both 2 point and 3 point FG%. They now face a rested TCU defense that ranks 21st nationally in defensive efficiency and 20th at defending the arc. TCU has played the tougher schedule (11th SOS / USC has played 37th SOS) and despite that the Frogs have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court. Lay it with TCU.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -6 vs. Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - The Cavs are clearly an elite team in the NBA and we like the situation with them coming off a loss at home against the 76ers. Washington had lost 3 straight games, then beat the lowly Pistons 117-97. Both of these offenses have similar statistics when it comes to scoring, shooting and 3-point percentages. The biggest difference is defensively as the Cavs allow just 1.105-points per possession (2nd best) compared to the Wiz who allow 1.148PPP (19th). The Cavaliers have the 4th best average point differential at home at +8.7PPG to go with a 28-8 SU record. Washington is 16-20 SU away from home on the year with a negative differential of minus -0.4PPG. The Cavs are 10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss this season. Cleveland has beaten the Wizards twice this season with both wins coming by 10 or more points. That trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 7:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost a tough one with Chicago. The Bulls shot poorly at 39%, which is well below their season average and still only lost by 3-points. Tonight, the Kings are going to have a tough time on the second night of a back to back. This is also Sacramento’s 5th game in an 8-day span. Last night the Kings starters Sabonis logged 40 minutes, Barnes played 35+ and Fox was on the floor for nearly 33-minutes. Fatigue will be a factor in this game! Brooklyn is 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS their last seven games and are coming off a disappointing loss in OKC on Tuesday. The Nets own the 4th best overall team FG% offense and rank 4th in 3PT%. They should be able to exploit a tired Kings team that ranks 29th in opponents FG% and 25th in 3PT% defense. This isn’t as much a play on the Nets, but more of a play against the Kings. The revenge angle also helps here as Nets allowed over 150 in ugly loss at Sacramento earlier this season. Perfect spot for a play against the Kings!

#738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -5 over College of Charleston, Thursday at 3:10 PM ET - C of C will be a very popular underdog play on Thursday as they step into this game with a 31-3 record. That’s an impressive run for sure, however the Cougars have played a very easy schedule this season – ranked 305th strength of schedule. They have played ONE top 100 team since late November and they lost that game at home vs Hofstra. The Cougs didn’t waltz through their conference tourney erasing a 2nd half deficits in both games to win close vs UNC Wilmington and Towson. San Diego State will be by far the best team they’ve faced this season. Meanwhile, SDSU has played the 34th most difficult schedule this season facing 20 opponents currently ranked in the top 100 per KenPom. The Aztecs were 11-6 vs Quad 1 & 2 opponents this season while C of C was 2-1. The Cougars are a deep team that rotates 10 players to wear opponents down and they shoot a bunch of 3’s (37% of their points come from beyond the arc – 28th nationally). The problem here is, they aren’t a great 3 point shooting team (210th nationally in 3 point FG%) and they won’t be able to wear down a deep and talented Aztec team (30th in bench minutes). SDSU is also a fantastic defense ranked 10th in the country in efficiency and 7th in 3 point FG% allowing opponents only 29% from deep. By comparison, the Cougs have ONE defense ranked in the top 100 in their conference, the Colonial. That was UNCW who ranks 97th and played C of C in the conference championship game and held them to 0.98 PPP and just 23% from deep in a very close Cougar win. If we look at the KenPom ratings, C of C would rank 6th in the MWC, a conference San Diego State won by 2 full games. The conference records of these 2 teams was almost identical despite playing in much tougher league. SDSU finished 18-3 in the Mountain West (6th best conference) and College of Charleston finished 19-2 in the Colonial (26th best conference) – conference tournament wins included. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, the Aztecs had a +20.2 PPP margin this season while the Cougars were +11.8. We like the value with San Diego State vs the popular underdog.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - We like this Kings team and hope they make some noise in the Playoffs but today we are on the home team Bulls as a small dog. We like the scheduling advantage for the Bulls who have been off since last Saturday. The Kings have faced a brutal schedule of late with games 13 straight games against teams in the Playoff hunt. They are coming off a big game against the Eastern Conference leading Bucks. The big difference between these two teams is defense. Chicago owns the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.128-points per possession. With the new addition of defensive minded Pat Beverly they are allowing 1.103PPP in their last three games. Sacramento has the 3rd worst DEFF allowing 1.209PPP on the season and 1.230PPP in their last three games. Granted, the Kings have a decided edge offensively, but given the scheduling we like the home defensive dog. Chicago’s 9th ranked FG percentage defense can limit the Kings 2nd best shooting offense. Sacramento ranks 29th in FG% defense and the Bulls are the 5th best shooting team in the league at 49%. Back the Bulls!

#713 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UCF +3.5 over Florida, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - One thing we know for sure is UCF is jacked for this game. They haven’t faced the state big boy since the 2012/13 season and the motivated Knights are good enough to pull the upset here. Central Florida had a disappointing season finishing 8-10 in the AAC despite ranking as the 4th best team per KenPom behind only Houston, Memphis, and Cincinnati. This team is better than their overall 18-14 record would indicate. Their adjusted efficiency margin was +12.6 points per 100 possessions which would indicate their record should be better than it is. They are solid on both ends of the court ranking in the top 90 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Golden Knights also play a very slow pace (319th in adjusted tempo) which could be a problem for the Gators who like to play fast. We would anticipate UCF slowing this game down giving them the best chance to win. Florida had much higher expectations entering the season and really played worse as the year progressed. They started the season ranked 35th by KenPom and ended the year ranked outside the top 60. The closed the season losing 7 of their last 10 games with their only wins coming vs Ole Miss, UGA, and LSU, 3 of the 4 SEC teams ranked outside the top 100. They really struggled after losing leading scorer & rebounder Colin Castleton in late February winning 2 of 8 games without him in the line up and he remains out. We’re not so sure that this Florida team is all that excited to be in the NIT this season. Both defenses are very solid holding opponents to less than 0.98 PPP. Offensively, UCF is the better shooting team. The Knights have the better offensive efficiency numbers, they make 36% of their triples (83rd nationally compared to Florida who ranks 291st in that statistic) and they make 77% of their FT’s. When facing the best teams in the AAC, the Knights played well losing to NCAA #1 seed Houston by 6 & 11 points while beating Memphis the first meeting and then getting nipped by 2 and 5 points in their other 2 vs the Tigers. In the non-conference this team nearly beat Miami FL (lost by 2) and Missouri (lost by 2). We like their chances here at the upset and we’ll take the points.

#669 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M CC -3.5 over SE Missouri State, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - We see this as a potential mismatch in Tuesday’s NCAA tourney play in game. Texas A&M CC was here last year and lost to Texas Southern so they are not simply happy to be here. They expected to be back and are set on winning this game. The Islanders are very experienced returning all 5 starters from last year’s game that lost in the play in round. That group has an overall record of 46-22 the last 2 years. They did lose one of their key players, Terrion Murdix, in their conference championship game last week and he is out for the season. He’s a very well liked teammate and we expect the others to rally around this injury and play with a little extra on Tuesday. They were the best team in the Southland Conference all season long finishing in first place in the regular season, winning the conference tourney to get here and ending the year #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in league play. The Southland Championship game was last Wednesday so the Islanders have had a week off to get ready for this one. SE Missouri State, on the other hand, just played 4 consecutive games (Wed – Sat) in the OVC tourney in Indiana and now with only 2 days off they are on the road and at it again. Unlike A&M, this team was not the best in their conference this season. They finished tied for 3rd place with 2 other teams and the Redhawks were barely positive in their PPP margin in league play this season. This is also a program that is not used to being in this situation as their last winning record was way back in 2014. They haven’t been in the Big Dance since 2000 and we’re guessing they might be just happy to be here as it was not expected this season. TAMU-CC is a very good offensive team averaging 81 PPG and they rank 38th nationally in 3 point %. They are facing a defense that simply isn’t very good allowing 77 PPG (337th nationally). We look for a win & cover for the Islanders on Tuesday.

#555 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Phoenix Suns +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, Monday at 10 PM ET - The Suns have owned this series winning all 3 meetings this season and none have been particularly close with margins of victory being +9, +11, and +12. On top of that, the Suns were only at full strength for 1 of those games with Booker, Ayton, and Paul missing time and Steph Curry scored 50 points in one of those games and Phoenix still got the win. Phoenix is still waiting for the return of Kevin Durant from the unfortunate injury when he was warming up for his home debut, but they are healthy otherwise and have been solid with an 8-3 record since Devin Booker returned to the lineup from an injury. Their overall record of 37-30 doesn’t paint an accurate picture as Phoenix was just 11-16 in the 27 games Booker missed. Since the All Star break, the Suns are 5-2 but lead the NBA in efficiency differential at +9.9 while the Warriors are 10th at +2.8. We’re also getting a well rested Suns team as they’ve played just 7 games since the All Star break while Golden State has played 10 games. We like the situation here with Golden State off huge OT win vs Milwaukee (minus Giannis) on Saturday while were getting Phoenix off a loss on Saturday vs Sacramento. The Suns have performed very well coming off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record dating back to early January. The Warriors have been very tough at home this season but we still like the points here and expect the Suns to have a solid shot at the win, if not we anticipate a close game.

#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -4.5 over Texas A&M, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Quick revenge here for Bama. This is who they wanted in the finals and this is who they got. In the season finale A&M played host to Bama and we were on the Aggies in that game. It was a perfect storm to grab the home team as the Tide had just beaten arch rival Auburn to clinch the SEC title and now were on the road in a somewhat meaningless game. We were actually impressed with Bama’s resolve in that game (considering the circumstances) as they fell behind by 15 and battled back to take the lead with under 5 minutes remaining in the game before ultimately losing 67-61. The difference in that game? Free Throws! A&M made 27 of their 28 FT’s in that game while the Crimson Tide made only 10 freebies. Despite the huge discrepancy from the line and the game being on the road, Alabama was able to keep it close down the stretch. The controlled the boards in that game (+10) and gathered 35% of their misses to give them a number of 2nd chance opportunities. Alabama is easily the best team in the SEC and probably the best team in the country when they actually show up and play like they are capable. They should do that today with the A&M loss still fresh in their minds (9 days ago). They rank #1 in the SEC in offensive & defensive efficiency as well as offensive & defensive eFG%. Bama has 5 losses on the season with 4 of those coming vs teams inside KenPom’s top 20. The Aggies have 8 losses, all vs teams ranked outside KenPom’s top 20 with 2 coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. Alabama is simply the better team and very motivated here. Lay it.

#8 ASA NHL PLAY ON 7* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals -155) over Arizona Coyotes, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET - Have to lay some juice on this one so we reduce our star rating a bit here but set-ups just do not get much better than this.  Arizona is off B2B wins but is one of the worst teams in the league while the defending champion Avalanche are off a bad loss.  Adding to the situational value here is that the Avs lost to the Coyotes in Arizona earlier this season.  Note that only 2 times this entire season has Arizona managed to win 3 straight games.  Also, though most recent loss was an OT loss, the 4 before that were all big-margin losses and the average margin of defeat in those was 3.5 goals.  As for the Avalanche, their last 4 wins have been by a combined score of 18 to 2 and this sets up well to be another blowout victory as they get back on track plus get their revenge.  Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Colorado is the play here.

#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -6.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We were on OSU 2 days ago vs Iowa and picked up a nice win. Yesterday we switched gears and took Michigan State over Ohio State and came up short. MSU, the top 3 point shooting team in the Big 10, made 3 of 16 from deep for just 19%. The Buckeyes made 10 three pointers and hit 53% from beyond the arc (+21 points from 3) and that was the difference. The Buckeyes have been a bit fortunate with their opponents missing from the arc in this tourney. Wisconsin, Iowa, and MSU combined to make only 11 of their 55 three point attempts (20%). OSU played their game yesterday without their leading scorer Sensabaugh (16.5 PPG) who tweaked his knee vs Iowa the day before. The OSU medical staff is doing some tests on Friday night to decide if he’s OK to go on Saturday. The Bucks rose to the occasion and played very well without their top player which often happens in the first game dealing with the injury. If Sensabaugh can’t play Saturday it will make it really tough on this team. Even if he can go and isn’t 100%, this is a very difficult spot for the streaking Buckeyes. They are playing their 4th game in 4 days while Purdue is playing just their 2nd. Down another player yesterday, the Buckeyes played 4 of their 5 starters 35+ minutes. Now they face a Purdue team that has been the best in the Big 10 all season long. The Boilers are a huge team facing a fatigued OSU squad that isn’t very deep up front after losing top big man Zed Key in mid February. Purdue should definitely control the boards in this game (#1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the Big 10) and that should lead to a number of extra possessions. In their match up in late February, a 27 points Purdue win, the Boilers crushed OSU on the boards (+23) and they gathered more than 45% of their misses in both games. PU also fouls less than any team in the league and gets to the FT line more than any team in the conference. Unless the Buckeyes shoot lights out again, we just don’t see them hanging in this one. Lay it with the Boilermakers as they pull away in the 2nd half.

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +1.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from Wednesday night when the Hawks beat the Wizards by 2. Statistically the game was about as even as it gets with the Hawks benefitting from +10 free throw attempts. Washington was in a tough scheduling situation having played the night before and they were playing their 4th game in six days. Atlanta won’t have that scheduling advantage and are also playing into immediate revenge. Washington is 15-16 SU at home on the season with a negative differential of -0.4PPG. Atlanta is 13-19 SU when coming off a win, 4-10 SU when away off a W. The Hawks have a losing road record of 15-20 SU with a negative average point differential of minus -1.7PPG. Washington has covered 6 of the last eight meetings with Atlanta and will get a big home win here.

#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON Duke -2.5 over Miami FL, Friday at 7 PM ET - When these 2 met back in February in Miami we were all over the Canes and picked up an EASY win. Miami was a 3 point favorite in that game and rolled the Devils 81-59 in an embarrassing performance by Duke. It was a perfect spot to fade the Blue Devils as they had just beaten UNC at home 2 days earlier and had to go on the road and play another game just 48 hours later. Duke followed that up with a spirited performance in an OT loss @ UVA and have since won 7 in a row. This team is peaking right now and we’re not so sure about Miami. Over their last 5 games Duke is winning by an average score of 78-64 hitting 50% of their shots while holding their opponents to 38% shooting. Yesterday they absolutely obliterated a very solid Pitt team by the final score of 96-69! Because of that they were able to spread their minutes out with 15 guys logging minutes and 10 of those playing double digit minutes. Meanwhile Miami went to the wire with Wake before winning 74-72. That’s been a theme for the Hurricanes down the stretch as they’ve been fortunate to come out on top in a number of games. In their last 4 games they held on to beat Va Tech by 6, lost to Florida State (2nd lowest rated team in the ACC), beat Pitt by 2, and then topped WF by 2. The Miami defense has allowed 78 PPG and 48% shooting by their opponents over the last 5 games. This game is in Greensboro so it will be a HEAVY Duke crowd. Two teams heading in opposite directions here and one should be ultra motivated after getting destroyed in their most recent meeting. Lay the small number with Duke.

#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan State -3.5 over Ohio State, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - We were on OSU yesterday vs Iowa and we love the way the Buckeyes are playing right now. That being said, we feel this is where their run comes to an end. This is a really tough spot for OSU playing their 3rd straight day and 4th game in 7 days while MSU has been resting since Saturday. Speaking of last Saturday, Michigan State played host to the Buckeyes in their home finale and won 84-78. Sparty led that game by 9 at half and OSU got to within 3 for about 10 seconds in the 2nd half but never got closer than 5 beyond that. That was the 2nd meeting between these 2. In the first meeting @ Ohio State, the Spartans rolled to a 62-41 win. The Bucks have shot extremely well the first 2 games of this tournament hitting 52 of their 103 shot attempts for 50.5%. They’ve also made 42% of their 3 point attempts in those 2 games. We would expect facing a very solid and rested MSU defense (37th nationally in defensive efficiency) that tired legs will most likely bring those shooting percentages down quite a bit in this game. The Buckeyes have also benefited from some poor shooting by their opponents, especially from beyond the arc. In their opener Wisconsin made only 4 of 22 from 3 point land and yesterday Iowa was 4-17. That’s a combined 8 of 39 for only 20%. It’s not as if OSU has a fantastic 3 point defense as they rank 11th in the conference allowing almost 36%. Today they face the best 3 point shooting team in the Big 10 with MSU making 41.5% from deep in league play. With potential tired legs defensively, we expect the Spartans to have a number of open looks. This is also a Michigan State offense that is peaking down the stretch scoring 80 or more points in each of their last 4 games. This one might be close into the 2nd half but we look for MSU to pull away down the stretch as they take advantage of OSU’s fatigue. If Sparty needs to make FT’s to salt this one away, they are #1 in Big 10 play hitting 78.5% from the stripe. This is a small number to lay in this situation and we’ll take the Spartans.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9 vs Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - The Rockets are playing out the schedule and have a lot to gain if they stay within the bottom three teams in the league for the worst overall record (chance for #1 draft pick). Houston is 2-12 SU their last 14 games and the two wins came against the worst team in the league the Spurs. Recently the Rockets beat the Spurs twice but prior to that stretch they had lost 11 in a row. During that 11-game losing streak the Rockets lost 8 of those games by double-digits. After beating the Spurs the Rockers were trounced at home by the Nets by 22. Houston has the 2nd worst overall average point differential at minus -7.9PPG for the season, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 29th in DEFF. When playing away from home the Rockets get beat by an average of 11.3PPG. The Pacers are playing much better again with their All-Star PG Haliburton back in the lineup. They have won 3 of their last five games and one of those two losses came against the 76ers. Indiana is still fighting for a playoff spot and have enough talent on the roster to win this game by double digits. The Pacers have covered 11 of the last 15 meetings with the Rockets in Indianapolis.

#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -3 over Rutgers, Thursday at 12 PM ET - A bubble showdown game here early on Thursday. Rutgers was all but in a month ago but the Knights have proceeded to lose 6 of their last 8 games with their only wins coming by 1 point vs Wisconsin and by 3 points vs PSU. Their offense has been non-existent scoring 60 points or less in 6 of their last 8 games and they are now officially the worst shooting team in the Big 10 (dead last in eFG%). Rutgers declined started when they lost key starter Mawot Mag (8 PPG & 5 RPG) who was one of the top defensive players. He is out for the season. This poor shooting team is facing a Michigan defense that has played very well down the stretch and the Wolverines now rank #1 in the Big 10 in eFG% defense. Offensively they are solid as well ranking 4th in the Big 10 in efficiency and they are 2nd in the league in scoring (conference games). Michigan enters this game of back to back tight OT losses on the road @ Illinois and @ Indiana. Prior to that they had won 6 of 8 and were very close to winning 8 of 10 had they been able to pull the upsets on the road vs top tier conference teams to close out the season. These 2 faced off @ Rutgers at the end of February and the Wolverines dominated in a 13 point win. They did so with one of their top players, Jett Howard, on the bench with an injury and he is now back and healthy. Michigan held Rutgers to just 45 points in that game on 0.74 PPP. They also had an advantage on the boards and fewer turnovers. Both of these teams need a win desperately to remain in consideration for the NCAA tourney and Michigan was the much better team over the last month or so. If they can win @ Rutgers, a very tough place to play, and win handily without one of the top scorers, they should do the same here. Lay the small number with the Wolverines.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3.5 vs. Toronto Raptors, 10:10 PM ET - Now that the Clippers “got the monkey off their backs” with a win over the Grizzlies we like them to continue to trend up as they adjust to the addition of Russell Westbrook. LA had lost 5 straight prior to their most recent win but all 5 of those L’s came against top teams in the West. Now they face an average team with a below .500 record from the East. Toronto is 12-21 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. The Raptors two most impressive road wins in recent weeks are at Washington and at Detroit neither of those teams compare to this Clippers team. Los Angeles is 16-15 SU at home with a +/- of +1.2PPG. Neither team shoots it overly well overall with the Raptors hitting just 45.5% of their field goal attempts (26th), while the Clippers make 47.1% good for 17th. Where the Clippers do excel though is from beyond the arc with the 6th best 3PT% at 36.7%. Toronto is second-to-last in the NBA in defending the 3-point line allowing 37.7%. The Clippers have an added day of rest while the Raptors played 2 nights ago in the higher altitude of Denver. Buy low on the Clippers tonight!

#676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah pick-em over Stanford, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We like the Utes quite a bit heading into the Pac 12 tourney. We think they are undervalued after losing their last 5 games of the season. The fact is they haven’t been healthy down the stretch but they are at full strength for this game. Starting guards Madsen and Worster have missed a number of games down the stretch which has really affected this team. Madsen missed 7 in a row before returning for the season finale @ Colorado while Worster missed 2 straight vs UCLA & USC before coming back in that same game. The Utes lost that game running into a buzzsaw in Boulder which was Colorado’s home finale. Those 2 players combined for 24 points in their 69-60 loss @ CU to close out the season but the team shot poorly at just 33%. With 1 game at full strength under their belts, we look for a solid performance on Wednesday. Utah has a great defense. They rank 33rd nationally in defensive efficiency, 7th in eFG% defense, 17th in 3 point FG% defense, and 11th in 2 point FG% defense. Stanford ranks dead last in the Pac 12 in eFG% defense & 3 point FG% defense along with ranking 11th in the conference in defensive efficiency. Offensively the Cardinal really rely in making 3 pointers offensive with 36% of their points coming from deep (2nd in conference play). We mentioned how good Utah’s 3 point defense is so that’s going to be a problem for Stanford. These 2 met once this year and Utah was at full strength and dominated that game which was @ Stanford. These 2 split their meeting this year with each winning on the opponent’s home court. Here the difference. In the first meeting @ Stanford, the Utes were at full strength and dominated for much of the game despite the 71-66 final score. Utah led by 16 with 8 minutes to go in the game. When the played in Utah, the Utes were without Madsen and lost a tight game despite shooting just 39% while the Cardinal lit it up at 53% from the field and 56% from 3 point land. Utah is the better team and they just need to win this one based on the spread. We’ll take it.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -6 @ Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - Most experts wrote the Nets off after the trade deadline when they dealt Kevin Durant to Phoenix and Kyrie Irving to Dallas. But Brooklyn is 5-5 SU their last ten games and still in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Nets are starting to gel offensively and building around Mikal Bridges who has scored 30+ points in four games since joining Brooklyn. The Nets are off two wins over the Celtics and Hornets and have a winning road record of 17-16 SU for the season. Brooklyn is 3rd in overall FG% offense, 3rd in 3-point shooting and 18th in scoring (granted those numbers include KD and Kyrie). The Rockets are playing out the schedule and have a lot to gain if they stay within the bottom three teams in the league for the worst overall record (chance for #1 draft pick). Houston has won 2 straight over the 16-win Spurs but had lost 11 straight going into that home-and-home. During that 11-game losing streak the Rockets lost 8 of those games by double-digits. Houston has the 2nd worst average point differential at minus -7.9PPG for the season, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 29th in DEFF. Houston is just 9-22 SU with a negative +/- of minus -4.4PPG at home this season. Lay the points with the short road favorite here.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +10 @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is one of those plug your nose bets, but several key indicators have us on the Hornets. The red-hot Knicks have covered 10 of their last twelve games but now they are being asked to cover a double-digit spread. New York has only been favored by 10 or more points once this season and they failed to cover in a 3-point win over the Spurs. With more tickets and money flowing in on the Knicks this line moved from -9.5 to minus -10, and is now getting bet back by the Sharps. The Knicks have played a brutally tough schedule of late, including an OT game against the Celtics last time out. They are about to embark on a West Coast trip so it will be easy for them to look past the struggling Hornets here. Charlotte had won 5-straight games, lost PG Ball to a broken ankle, then lost three straight. Charlotte is 7-5-1 ATS this season when tabbed a double-digit underdog. NY is 21-25-2 ATS as a home chalk since the start of last season. This is one of those games where the oddsmakers are begging you to bet the Knicks, so bet contrarian and take the ugly underdog!

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Penguins Puck Line (-1.5 goals -130) over Columbus Blue Jackets, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Pittsburgh is in a great spot here which is why they are a -300 favorite on the money line.  Where the value is here is with the puck line which is in the -130 range on this one.  Regardless of the starting goalies here, we love the Penguins in this spot.  However, we will mention that the expected starters are Elvis Merzlikins for the Blue Jackets and Tristan Jarry for the Penguins.  Merzlikins is having a horrific season and Columbus has lost 19 of his 26 starts and he has a 4.15 GAA which is ridiculously high.  Jarry has a solid 2.77 GAA and has a 19-7-5 record overall.  The Blue Jackets have lost 22 of 29 road games this season while the Penguins are on home ice where they have been rock solid this season.  We love the fact that Pittsburgh is off a 4-1 road loss but now back home and the road loss had followed a 4-game winning streak.  Also, the Penguins have won 6 straight over the Blue Jackets by a combined score of 28 to 12.  That works out to an average score of 5 to 2 and there is certainly nothing average about that!  The fact is the Blue Jackets struggle consistently when facing these Penguins and now Columbus enters this match-up slumping as well.  The Blue Jackets have lost 10 of 15 games.  The Penguins have averaged scoring nearly 5 goals per game in last 6 wins on home ice and Columbus just will not be able to keep up here.  Home team in a blowout per our computer math model.  Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Pittsburgh is the value play here.

#611 ASA TOP PLAY ON Notre Dame +7.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Irish had a rough season to say the least with a 3-17 Big East record. However, there have been signs of life down the stretch and they start a new season tonight. ND upset Pitt one week ago today in their home finale and then fell flat on Saturday @ Clemson. That was somewhat understandable as their game @ Clemson was pretty much meaningless as the Irish were already locked into the 14 seed while the Tigers were still fighting for a double bye. It’s one of the few games this year that Notre Dame was blown out. Despite their 17 losses, they were in most of their games and could have a much better record. 11 of their 17 conference losses came by 8 points or fewer and 5 of those were 1 possession games (lost by 3 or less). 5 of their last 7 losses down the stretch were close including losing to this Va Tech team by 6 points on February 11th. The FT disparity in that game was the difference with the Hokies making 20 FT’s to just 6 for the Irish. That was an aberration in our opinion as neither of these teams gets to the FT line all that often (ranked outside the top 330 in % of points from the charity stripe) and neither fouls very much (both in the top 50 nationally in % of points allowed from the FT line). Other than that key stat, there wasn’t anything else that stood out as a big advantage in that game for either team as most were fairly even. VT was far from stellar in the weak ACC this year finishing with a record of 8-12 in league play. They enter this tournament on a modest 2 game winning streak over FSU & Louisville, the 2 worst teams in the ACC. We’ll keep an eye on ND freshman guard JJ Starling, one of the top freshmen in the conference, as he’s missed a few games with a knee bruise. If he plays it’s a bonus as we like Notre Dame at this number whether he’s in or out. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6 vs. Toronto Raptors, 9:10 PM ET - Denver has the 2nd best overall record in the NBA and the best home record at 29-4 SU. They win at home by an average of +11.9PPG which is best in the league. In their three most recent home games they were favored by similar numbers over three Western Conference teams that rate better than Toronto and they won all three by 9+ points. Toronto is 12-20 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. As an away dog the Raptors are 11-9 ATS. As a home favorite the Nuggets are 20-10-1 ATS with an average cover margin of +4.2PPG. Toronto was recently +7.5 points at a similar Cleveland team and lost by 25-points. The Nuggets last played March 3rd so they have extra rest and a rest advantage. When playing with a rest advantage the Nugs are 11-4-1 ATS. When playing on 2 or more days off they are 9-3 ATS this season. The Raptors two most impressive road wins in recent weeks are at Washington and at Detroit which doesn’t impress us. The Nuggets have plenty to play for which is the #1 record overall (trail the Bucks by 1-game) which would mean home court advantage if they make the Finals.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3 over the Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - This is a quick rematch game for both teams as they just played Saturday in Miami with the Heat winning 117-109. Only 1.5 games separate these two teams in the Eastern Conference Playoff standings so it takes on an added importance for both teams. On Saturday, Miami held slight edges shooting at 51% compared to 47% overall and 37% to 30% from beyond the Arc. The Heat won that game by 8-points despite the Hawks two leading scorers Dejounte Murray (21PPG) and Trae Young (26.7PPG) being held to 10 and 7-points respectively. We are betting those two have much better games tonight. Miami has a winning record at home but their +/- is 24th in the league at +0.8PPG. As a home favorite, the Heat own the 2nd worst winning percentage in the NBA at 25.9% ATS with a 7-20-2 spread record. Atlanta has a losing road record at 14-19 SU but it should be much better based on the fact they own the 11th best average MOV at -1.9PPG. As a road dog this season, they are .500 or 11-11 ATS. We like the Hawks here plus the points in this immediate revenge game.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -5 vs NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is one of our favorite scheduling situations as we get an elite team in the NBA off a loss laying a short number, at home and playing with recent revenge. Boston is coming off a home loss to the Nets, a game in which they led by as many as 28-points. That result, plus the fact they just lost to the Knicks on Feb 27th will have them focused and motivated here. In their recent loss to New York the Celtics were favored by -2-points and are now laying just a few more at home. Boston is 25-8 SU at home with an average +/- of plus 8.7PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The C’s have the 4th best offensive efficiency rating at home and the 11th best defensively. The Knicks are playing well right now with 8 straight wins but it hasn’t come against an overly difficult schedule and the win against the Celtics came with Boston’s Jaylen Brown sitting out. NY has some solid road statistics with top 10 OEFF and DEFF rankings but are in a bad situation here with a very soft spread. The Knicks don’t shoot it as well as the Celtics and both have very comparable defensive statistics so we expect that edge to be the difference here. Bet the value and Celtics in this great situation.

#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -3.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - We faded Maryland on the road earlier this week @ Ohio State and picked up a win and we’ll do it again today. The Terps stink on the road. No 2 ways around it. They have a grand total of 2 road wins this year and those came @ Minnesota, by far the worst team in the Big 10, and @ Louisville, by far the worst team in the ACC. Those 2 teams have combined record this year of 12-46! As expected based on their road record, the Terps key numbers drop off a cliff when they travel. At home their offense averages 1.15 points per possession and on the road they put up only 0.97 PPP. They average only 62 PPG on the road this season and if we throw out their game @ Minnesota, who has the worst defense in the Big 10, Maryland has been held under 60 points in 5 of their 7 conference roadies. PSU is playing their home finale and in must win mode. They are currently sitting just outside the NCAA field according to most analysts and can’t afford a home setback today. PSU has some momentum coming off an impressive road win @ Northwestern earlier this week. They also should have some extra incentive in this home finale as they lost their most recent home game, 59-56, vs Rutgers and the Nittany Lions blew a 19 point 2nd half lead in that one. Their offense has been exceptional this season at home averaging 78 PPG on 1.15 PPG and hitting over 40% of their 3’s. In their meeting a few weeks ago in Maryland, the Terps came away with a 74-68 win and in that game they made 18 FT’s to just 2 for PSU and it was still a tight game. This is just a much bigger game for the home team and we’ll lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - Yeah, we know…how can you bet against the Bucks who have won 16 straight games? Philly has a lineup that can compete with Milwaukee and Joel Embiid will put forth extra effort in a marquee matchup with Giannis. The Sixers are coming off a loss in Dallas and they’ve been good in this situation with a 6-2 record in their last eight games when coming off a loss. Overall, the 76ers are 12-9 ATS when off a loss and they have an average +/- in those games of +5.5PPG. Philly is 14-14 ATS on the road this season, but they do own a positive differential at +1.9PPG. Granted the Bucks are 27-5 SU at home this season with a +/- of +8.4PPG, but the underdog has covered and won outright in 3 of the last four meetings. Grab the points with the Sixers.

#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Villanova +2.5 over UConn, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Nova is flying under the radar right now but they are playing as well as anyone in the Big East. The Cats have won 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve pushed their Big East record to 10-9 after starting just 4-8. Their top player, Justin Moore, missed the first 20 games of the season and since he’s come back and gotten acclimated to his teammates, they’ve played very good basketball. When Nova faced UConn earlier this season, Moore was not yet in the lineup and they hung tight losing by 8 on the road. In that game the Huskies were +6 at the FT line and +15 from beyond the arc yet even with those big advantages it was just a 2 point game with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. UConn is very talented but they’ve been up & down this year. They are entering this one on a 4 game winning streak but they’ve only been a .500 team on the road. The Huskies have won 3 of their last 4 on the road, however those 3 wins came vs St Johns, DePaul, and Georgetown, the 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. The one solid team they played on the road during that stretch was Creighton and they lost that game. Prior to winning 3 of 4 on the road, Connecticut had lost 4 in a row away from home and they average 10 PPG fewer on the road this season. They’ve also faced the easiest strength of schedule in Big East play yet they have 7 conference losses. This game is expected to be close based on the spread so free throws could be key. We look for the host Wildcats to have a solid advantage at the stripe as they get their often with 20% of their points coming from freebies (78th nationally). UConn fouls more than any team in the conference with their opponents scoring 24% of their points from the stripe. On top of that, Villanova makes 83% of their FT’s as a team this season. We like the Wildcats to win their home finale and getting points is a bonus.

#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -1.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Crimson Tide have been trending down as of late. Lots of obvious distractions going on right now and last 3 games Bama has looked shaky at best and 2 of those games were at home Over their last 3 games they nearly lost @ South Carolina, the worst team in the SEC. Bama won that game by 2 points in OT and despite making 10 more FT’s than the Gamecocks, it was tight throughout. Following that performance the Tide were forced to come from down double digits at home vs Arkansas in a 3 point win. Most recently, on Wednesday hosting Auburn, Bama trailed for most of game and came back from 17 down with under 10 minutes remaining and won in OT. How important is this game to Bama? They already clinched SEC title with their win over arch rival Auburn earlier this week. This is pretty much a meaningless game as they close out the regular season. A&M has been playing outstanding basketball winning 7 of last 8 and they are a PERFECT 8-0 at home in SEC play. While they are locked into 2nd place, the Aggies will bring the heat here in their final home game of the season and facing off against the #1 team in the SEC. At home A&M has a PPG margin of +13 and their defense is allowing just 60 PPG. Bama, on the other hand, has seen a big dip in their road splits vs home splits. They average 12 PPG less on the road and efficiency drops way off on road from 1.18 PPP at home to 0.99 on the road. We like the Aggies to win this game at home.

#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over Colorado State, Friday at 11 PM ET - When healthy, the Lobos are as talented as any team in the Mountain West despite their 8-9 league record. Their star point guard Jaelen House missed back to back games earlier this month and since his return New Mexico is 2-2. However, taking a closer look at those games reveals they’ve played very well over their last 4. The 2 wins were both by double digits vs San Jose State & Fresno State. The 2 losses were vs the 2 highest rated teams in the conference and New Mexico was in solid position to win both. They led by 13 @ Boise last week and shot only 37% from the field yet still had a shot at the win. The Lobos then faced #1 seed San Diego State over the weekend and again led by 13 in the 2nd half and the Aztecs led for a grand total of 3 minutes in the 2nd half but hit a 3 pointer at the buzzer to win by 2. The New Mexico offense is a terrible match up for this CSU defense. In the first meeting which was a NM blowout win, the Lobos scored 88 points on 1.28 PPP. The Rams rank dead last in the MWC in defensive efficiency allowing 1.12 PPG and 10th in eFG% allowed. They also have one of the worst 3 point defenses in the country (ranked 306th) while New Mexico is the best 3 point shooting team in the conference hitting nearly 40% of their triples in league play. The Lobos have averaged 85 PPG since House returned and they should have their way offensively tonight. It’s CSU’s final home game but they’ve been less than spectacular with a terrible 2-6 record at home in conference play. The Rams only 2 home wins in conference play were vs Wyoming and Fresno who have a combined MWC record of 10-25. CSU will be seeded anywhere from 7 to 11 for the upcoming conference tourney which means they’ll play on the first day no matter what. This game is huge for NM as a win sets them up to possibly get the 5 seed and avoid the play in round. We’ll take the much better team in a near pick-em game tonight.

#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kent State -4 over Akron, Friday at 7 PM ET - Revenge is in place for the 2nd place team in the MAC (Kent) in their home finale. A win here and a Toledo loss @ Ball State and the Golden Flashes can finish in a tie for 1st place. A win here and the worst they finish is in 2nd place. Kent traveled to Akron 1 month ago as a 1 point road favorite and lost the game 67-55. Now we’re only laying -5 (opening number) at home which is a nice value based on the spread when they met in early February. The Flashes, who average 1.11 PPP in MAC play this year, put up just 0.89 PPP in that loss which was by far their worst offensive performance of the MAC season. In fact, Kent has put up at least 1.00 PPP in every other conference game but 1 this season. In the loss, Akron made 20 FT’s while Kent made only 7 which turned out to be the difference in the game. Since that loss, they have won 6 of 7 games and their home court advantage has been terrific with a perfect 14-0 record this year. They average 83.6 PPG at home which is nearly 30 more than they scored @ Akron last month. They also shoot 48% at home while putting up 1.13 PPP we expect a much better offensive performance tonight. This is their home finale (and season finale) and with revenge along with celebrating 4 key seniors, we expect Kent to bring their best on Friday night. Since beating Kent, the Zips are 4-3 and struggled to beat Ball State in their home finale. The Cardinals led by double digits midway through the 2nd half and Akron battled back for the win. They have a .500 record on the road, but score only 68 PPG and average less than 1.00 PPP away from home (0.97 PPP). Facing a motivated Kent defense that ranks #1 in the MAC in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and turnovers created will be tough for the Zips. Kent is the better team and extra motivated for this one. We’ll lay it with the Golden Flashes at home in their finale.

#770 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +1.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET - Wazzou is off back to back road wins @ Stanford and @ Cal and now playing their 3rd straight away from home. Despite their 2 road wins over the last week, the Cougars have been terrible on the road this season. They have a record of 3-8 in true road games and they are averaging only 62 PPG this season away from home while making only 38% of their shots. Washington State’s offensive efficiency drops from 1.08 PPP at home to 0.97 PPP on the road. We’re also catching them as an overvalued road favorite because they’ve won 5 straight games. The fact is 4 of those 5 wins have come against the 4 lowest rated teams in the Pac 12. We’re getting the Huskies as a dog in their home finale and they are playing better winning 3 of 4. At home they are 12-5 on the season and their 3 home losses in conference play have come vs UCLA, Arizona, and USC, the 3 top teams in the Pac 12. The Huskies are set to close out their regular season with a revenge win over their arch rival. In their meeting earlier this season, Wazzou held on to win a tight game 56-51. In that game the Cougars outscored Washington by 12 points from beyond the arc and by 5 points from the FT line yet it was a down to the wire game. WSU relies very heavily on shooting well from 3 as almost 40% of their points come from deep. Problem for them here is, Washington is very good at defending the arc allowing 29% on the season which is good for 14th nationally. On top of that Wazzou only hits 32% of their triples on the road this season. Thus we do not expect the Cougs to have another big advantage from deep which will hurt them in this game. As expected, the dog in this huge rivalry has covered 8 in and 20 of the last 27. We like Washington to win this one outright.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:30 PM ET - The Spurs had lost 16 straight games prior to a win in Utah in their last game out. We expect them to return to their losing ways again tonight versus a surging Pacers team vying for a Playoff spot. Not only did San Antonio go on a straight up losing streak they also have just 3 covers in their last seventeen games. Indiana has won 3 of four including an impressive win over the Mavericks last time out as a +8.5 point underdog. The Spurs are bad on both ends of the court ranking last in defensive efficiency, last in points allowed per game, last in overall FG% defense and 3PT% D. It’s not much better for them on the offensive end of the court where they rank 29th in offensive efficiency and 20th or worse in PPG allowed, FG% D and 3PT% defense. The Pacers should take advantage of the Spurs defense with their 11th ranked 3PT shooting offense that hit’s 36.4% of their attempts. San Antonio has failed to cover in 4 straight home games and the Pacers are on a 4-0 spread streak on the road against sub .400 teams. The Pacers have also covered 4 straight in San Antonio.

#774 ASA TOP PLAY ON South Alabama -3.5 over Appalachian State, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET - Early start here in the Sun Belt Conference tourney. We really like this South Alabama team and think they can make a run in this tournament. After starting the Sun Belt season with a 2-7 record, they Jags hit their stride winning 7 of their last 9 games in conference play. They are much better than their 9-9 Sun Belt record. The Jaguars PPP differential (conference play) is the 3rd best in the league behind only Marshall and Louisiana who finished with overall records of 24-7 and 23-7 respectively. This is a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up that is very balanced. Defensively they rank 1st in PPG allowed and eFG% allowed and 2nd in efficiency. Offensively they rank #1 in the Sun Belt in eFG% and turn the ball over only 15% of the time, the least in the conference. They were 3rd in the conference in PPG margin (+5.6) while App State was 8th at (+0.0 PPG) despite each finishing with a 9-9 record. The Mountaineers are not a great shooting team (258th nationally in eFG%) and they only average 65 PPG in conference play. If this one comes down to FT’s App State is not in a good spot ranking dead last in the Sun Belt making just 65% from the line. In their lone meeting this year, South Alabama won by 17 points despite taking 12 fewer shot attempts. The FT attempts were nearly dead even (11 to 10) so it wasn’t as if USA had a huge edge from the line to make up for the fewer shot attempts. They dominated more than the final score might indicate. This game is being played in a neutral site in Pensacola, FL which is only 55 miles from Mobile, AL, home of South Alabama. We like the Jaguars to make run in this tourney and it starts on Thursday morning. Lay it.

ASA NHL PLAY ON 7* Anaheim Ducks Puck Line (+1.5 goals -155) over Washington Capitals, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET - So we reduce our star rating from the average 8* to 7* here because of laying a little bit of price to the +1.5 goals on our side.  That said, laying 7* on a -155 is the equivalent wager risk amount of laying 10* on a -110.  So we are comfortable here because the Ducks have been playing better than the Capitals plus getting much better goaltending and we will gladly challenge Washington to win this game by a multiple-goal margin.  The fact is that the Caps are 7-14 last 21 games and only 2 of the 7 wins was by a multi-goal margin!  That means that at a -1.5 price, Washington would be 2-19 last 21 games!  As for the Ducks, they have won 3 straight games including a recent 4-2 win in DC over the Capitals.  We also like the fact that Anaheim has allowed 2 or less goals in all 3 wins.  Grabbing the 1.5 goals with the home dog Anaheim is the play here.

#704 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* TCU -2 over Texas, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We love this TCU team and when healthy we feel they are one of the best teams in the country. They are undervalued with just an 8-8 Big 12 record, however half of those losses (4) came when their top player Mike Miles was out with an injury. They also lost to Mississippi State when Miles was initially injured just 4 minutes into the game. Thus, the Frogs were just 1-5 when Miles was out from early to mid February. They’ve also played a number of games without starters Peavy & Lampkin as well. Peavy is back and playing while Lampkin has been in and out of the lineup. This team is as close to 100% as they have been in quite a while. We faded Texas on Saturday @ Baylor and picked up a win. The Horns have a very solid 22-7 record, but on the road they simply are an average team. They have a losing record in their road games and have been outscored on road this season. Texas has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with their only win during that stretch coming by 3 points @ Kansas State in a game they trailed by 14 points. At home the Horns average 85 PPG on 50% shooting. On the road they average 69 PPG on 43% shooting. At home TCU averages 78 PPG while allowing just 62 PPG. Their only conference home loss when they were at full strength was a 5 point setback vs Kansas, a game in which they made only 20 of their 66 shot attempts (30%). KU had some revenge on their minds in that game after TCU beat them by 23 points in Lawrence. The first meeting between these 2 teams went to the wire in Austin with Texas coming out on top 79-75. The Horned Frogs blew a 13 point halftime lead in that game and Texas took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 1:00 minute remaining in the game. Despite the conference records, Texas 11-5 & TCU 8-8, these 2 teams have very similar PPP margins in league play. TCU is underrated and we’ll take them at home.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - These two teams are both in the playoff mix with the Bulls looking up at the Raptors in the standings. After losing 6 straight games going into the All-Star break the Bulls have won 2 straight over the Nets and Wizards. Toronto had won 7 of eight games prior to a loss last time out in Cleveland. In that winning stretch though, the Raptors really had just one quality win over the Memphis Grizzlies as none of the other “W’s” came against a team with a winning record. The Bulls defense is solid and will be better with the addition of Patrick Beverly who was recently added to the roster. Chicago allows the 10th fewest points in the league, own the 9th best FG% defense and 10th best 3PT% D. Toronto will struggle to score here with an offense that ranks 27th in team FG% and 3PT%. Offensively the Bulls own the 6th best shooting percentage in the league and rank 16th in 3PT%. The Raptors are 27th in FG% defense and 3PT% defense. Chicago has an average Margin of Victory on the road at -2.9PPG. Toronto has a +/- of +2.5PPG at home. Both of those averages clearly favor Chicago in this matchup. In what shapes up to be a lower scoring game we will gladly grab the points with the Bulls.

#862 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -4 over West Virginia, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re definitely catching a buy low spot on ISU in this game. They are coming off their worst home performance of the season losing 61-50 as a 7.5 point favorite vs Oklahoma. The Cyclones jumped out to an 11 point first half lead and they were up by 5 at halftime when their offense went in the tank. They shot just 27% in the 2nd half while OU hit over 56% of their shots after the break. Even with that loss ISU is still a very good 13-2 at home this season and they’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Baylor, KSU, and Texas here this season. Head coach TJ Otzelberger was not happy after the performance and mentioned his team needs more “personal pride”. We expect a great effort on Monday night. The Cyclones are catching WVU in a vulnerable spot. The Mountaineers played @ Kansas on Saturday and took the Jayhawks to the wire losing by 2 points. That was a physically and emotionally draining game and now they must play on the road, in one of the toughest spots to play in the Big 12, just 48 hours later. Despite playing KU tough on Saturday, West Virginia is just 2-8 on the road this season and they’ve now lost 7 straight away from home. They are the worst shooting team in the Big 12 (conference games) ranking dead last in eFG%. Tonight they are facing the top defensive efficiency team in the conference and one of the best in the country as ISU allows just 0.91 PPP (8th nationally). We expect WVU to struggle offensively in this game. While Iowa State’s offense played poorly on Saturday, they did get a key piece back in the line up with Caleb Grill (10 PPG, 37% from 3 point range) returning from an injury. When these 2 met @ WVU earlier this month, the Cyclones gave the Mountaineers all they could handle losing by 5 points in a game they led with just over 1:00 minute remaining. We like Iowa State to get back on track and grab a win & cover in their final home game of the season. They start 4 seniors so this will be an emotional night in Ames. Lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6 vs Miami Heat, 7:10 PM ET - Something is going on in Miami that can’t be figured out right now as this team just isn’t competitive. The Heat have lost 4 straight games and 6 of their last ten overall. On the season they have struggled on the road with a 13-19 SU record with an average +/- of -2.3PPG. Miami is just 1-5 SU and ATS their last six away from home with the lone win coming in OT against the Magic. This will be the first meeting of the season between these two teams after the Heat eliminated the 76ers from the Playoffs a year ago. Philly is 5-1 SU and ATS their last six games but are coming off a tough loss to the Celtics on Saturday. The Celtics had a great shooting night which is surprising considering the Sixers own the 13th best FG% defense and 3rd best 3-point percentage D. Philly is 7-3 SU at home when coming off a loss this season and 24-9 SU overall at home. They win their home games by an average of +5.7PPG. and own a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency rating on their own court. Whatever has happened behind the scenes with Miami is a mystery right now but we don’t see things changing in this scenario. Lay the points.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +5.5 @ Atlanta Hawks, 3:10 PM ET - These two teams are coming off very different results as the Nets were just destroyed in Chicago by the Bulls 87-131, while the Hawks beat Cleveland at home 136-119. So off those results why would we back the Nets? Let’s not forget these guys are professionals and some of the most competitive players on the planet. That humiliating loss should have them focused and motivated here. Meanwhile the Hawks could be a little “fat” coming off that blowout win which has support from their 11-18 ATS mark when coming off a win this season. The Hawks are 16-12 SU at home this season with an average +/- of plus +1.8PPG. As a home favorite this season the Hawks are 10-13 ATS. Brooklyn is solid as a Dog this season with a 14-10 ATS record overall. They are 13-11 ATS when coming off a loss overall, 5-1 their last six. The Nets have an overall winning record on the road this season at 16-14 with an average +/- of -2.4PPG. The Hawks rank 21st in opponents FG% allowed and the Nets are the 2nd best shooting team in the NBA. This Nets roster still has plenty of talented players and they’ll keep this game close throughout.

#786 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -5 over St Mary’s, Saturday at 10 PM ET = The Zags have been waiting patiently for this WCC rematch. St Mary’s won the first meeting earlier this month at home in OT. It was a game that Gonzaga pretty much controlled throughout despite the loss. St Mary’s led for just over 1:00 minute in the first half and NEVER had a lead in the 2nd half. Thus the Zags led for 39 of the 40 minutes in regulation and lost when the Gaels sent the game to OT with the game tying basket with 8 seconds remaining in the game. Now the Zags get a shot at revenge at home where they have won 80 of their last 81 games! Not only that, Gonzaga sits one game behind St Mary’s for the WCC title and this is their season and home finale. A win would push them into a tie for 1st place in the conference on Senior Night. On top of that, ESPN’s College Game Day will be there on Saturday and the atmosphere will be beyond electric. Experts have been banging on the Bulldogs for not being at the same elite level they have been in recent years. While they might be down a bit from previous seasons, they are still outstanding. Four of their five losses have come vs Purdue, St Marys, Baylor, and Texas, all top 15 teams per KenPom. Their other loss was at home vs a solid Loyola Marymount team and when they had a shot at their revenge on the road, they beat LMU 108-65 just over 1 week ago. The Gaels also have 5 losses, however 4 of those have come vs teams ranked outside the top 50 including 2 ranked outside the top 100. On the road in WCC play St Mary’s lost at Loyola Marymount and had a number of close calls winning by 1 @ BYU, by 3 @ San Diego, and by 3 @ Santa Clara. Tonight they are stepping into a hornet’s nest at the McCarthey Athletic Center where Gonzaga is averaging a whopping 93 PPG this season with an average winning margin of +24 PPG. They are more than comfortable at home offensively where they make 55% of their shots and they are the most efficient offense overall in the nation this year averaging 1.22 PPP. Since the 1995/96 season, these 2 rivals have met 27 times in Spokane and Gonzaga has won 24 of those games. 9 of the last 10 home wins for Gonzaga vs St Mary’s have come by double digits. The Gaels are very good this season but this is a bad spot for them and we like Gonzaga to cover at home.

#608 ASA TOP PLAY ON Iowa -5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The statistical comparison of Iowa’s home vs road games is quite dramatic. They have superb numbers at home and on the road, not so much. At home this season the Hawkeyes are averaging 89 PPG shooting 49% from the field and almost 39% from deep. On the road, they average just 67 PPG on 40% shooting while only making 26% of their shots from the arc. We’re catching Iowa off back to back double digit road losses @ Northwestern & @ Wisconsin so they are hungry for a win here. In those 2 games, the Hawks combined go shoot 6 of 52 (11%) from beyond the 3 point line! Most were uncontested looks that just didn’t go down. Now at home where they shoot very well, we look for those numbers to skyrocket. Michigan State is in a tough spot here in our opinion. They had a rivalry game last weekend @ Michigan and lost by 12 (we were on Michigan). Then on Tuesday, they came home for a very emotional game vs Indiana which was the first home game since the tragic campus shootings. We were on Sparty in that game and they won by 15 points and players and coach Izzo alike were very consumed by the emotion of that game. Now they go on the road facing a desperate Iowa team which will be tough. MSU is just 1-5 SU their last 6 road games with 4 of those 5 losses coming by at least 9 points. For the season they are averaging just 64 PPG on the road while allowing 69 PPG. Remember, they are facing an Iowa team that averages nearly 90 PPG at home and the Hawks have scored at least 80 points in all but 1 conference home game. We’re just not sure the Spartans can keep up in this game. Not only will Iowa shoot well here as they almost always to at home, they should have a solid advantage at the FT line. 18% of Iowa’s points in league play come from the stripe (4th most) while MSU allows 21% of opponents points at the charity stripe (most in the Big 10). These 2 met in late January with the Spartans winning by a final of 63-61 as a 2.5 point favorite. A couple of takeaways from that game…MSU’s largest lead of the game was just 4 points while Iowa held a 10 point lead at one point. Iowa made only 3 of 17 from deep (17%) while Michigan State made 40% of their triples. Iowa also made just 46% of their FT’s and their season average is 74%. Even with all of that, the Hawkeyes had the ball late and missed two 3-pointers in the final 7 seconds which would have won the game. This one sets up very nicely for Iowa to win and cover at home on Saturday.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +6.5 vs LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - This is an inflated number for several reasons including the Russell Westbrook signing by the Clippers and the fact the Kings are coming off a game last night. But, while Westbrook is an incredible talent, he may also be a disruptive force early on with the Clippers as he tries to fit in. Secondly, the Kings played last night but it was a blowout win and they kept their minutes down for the starters, plus they are coming off the extended break from the All-Star game. The Kings own the 7th best average point differential on the road this season at -0.7PPG and have a winning straight up record at 15-13. The Clippers on the other hand are 15-13 SU at home but have the 22nd worst average MOV at +1.3PPG. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season for these two teams and the Kings have covered both prior to this game. In fact, Sacramento has covered 5 of the last seven meetings and we like that trend to continue here.

#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON James Madison -13.5 over Georgia State, Friday at 8 PM ET - James Madison is playing their home finale on Friday night and will honor 4 seniors, including 3 starters. The Dukes will be highly motivated in their last home game and adding fuel to the fire they are coming off a home loss Thursday night vs Sun Belt 1st place Marshall. That loss dropped JMU to 20-10 on the season and 11-6 in the Sun Belt. They have been a solid money maker this season with an 18-9 ATS record. The Dukes offense has been fantastic all season long averaging 81 PPG (18th nationally) and they’ve been even better at home putting up an average of 86 PPG. That’s going to be a problem for an offensive limited Georgia State team that is averaging only 61 PPG on the road this season. The Panthers offense ranks 324th in efficiency, 346th in eFG%, and 356th in 3 point FG%. They are facing a JMU defense that ranks 64th nationally in efficiency allowing less than 1.00 PPP and the Dukes create a ton of turnovers (22nd nationally). Meanwhile, Ga State turns the ball over at a very high rate, over 20% in conference play which is dead last in the league. That should lead to a number of extra possessions for James Madison, who is already a high scoring team. GSU is in last place in the league with a 3-14 record having lost 10 of their last 11 games. They are 0-10 SU on the road this year. They just played at home on Senior night Thursday vs a middle of the pack Sun Belt team, App State who is 9-9 in the league, and the Panthers were destroyed by 26 points. Now in their regular season finale, on the road vs one of the top teams in the conference, we don’t expect a great effort in a meaningless game for the Panthers. When these 2 met @ Georgia State earlier this season, JMU won 63-47 despite shooting just 35% overall and 21% from beyond the arc. They also played that game without their 2nd leading scorer, Morse, who is back and playing very well. Even with that, JMU led throughout and cruised to an easy road win. Now at home, and motivated vs a team that looks like they may have packed it in, this one could get ugly. GSU is among the worst ATS teams in CBB with a 6-18-2 spread record and we think they drop another tonight. James Madison BIG.

#810 ASA TOP PLAY ON Illinois -5 over Northwestern, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The Cats have won 5 straight and 8 of their last 10 but now they’ve become a bit overvalued in our opinion. The perfect example is when these 2 met in January, the Illini were favored by 3.5 on the road and now they are laying just 1 to 2 points more at home. NW won that first meeting 73-60 and while the Illini held the Wildcats offense in check allowing just 32% from the field, they lost the FT battle 32 to 6! Yes you read that correctly. Northwestern was 32 of 40 from the FT line while Illinois was 6 of 10. That was obviously the difference in the game and one of the more drastic FT differentials we’ve seen this season. Now we get the Illini in revenge mode, at home with a short number, and NW is ahead of them in the Big 10 standings. The Illini have been very good at home with a 13-2 overall record and they are outscoring their opponents by +17 PPG. One of Illinois’ top players, Terrence Shannon, has missed the last 2 games due to a concussion but he was back at practice on Wednesday. No word for sure if he’ll play or not but things are looking good. We’ve handicapped this game as if Shannon will not play so if he does it’s a bonus. NW is coming off a huge 3 game home stand in which they beat Purdue, Indiana, and Iowa. They were underdogs in all of those home games and now they are only a slight dog on the road vs a team that ranks 12 spots higher than Iowa (per KenPom) and nearly identical to Indiana. Two of those wins for NW went to the wire and if they lose those games we’re most likely laying 7 or more here. The Cats were just +5.5 @ Ohio State (who is 3-13 in conference play) in their most recent road game. Great value with Illinois here in our opinion. Prior to beating Illinois last month, Northwestern had lost 8 straight vs the Illini and they’ve only won THREE times in Champaign since 1980. We’ll lay it with the home team.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +6 vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The Raptors are on an impressive 5-1 SU run in their last six games but take a look at who they’ve beaten. Those wins have come against 24-35 Magic, 15-44 Pistons, 14-45 Spurs, 13-45 Rockets and one quality win against the Grizzlies. The Pelicans have won 4 of their last six games and are playing better with Brandon Ingram back in the lineup. The two losses in that stretch came against the Cavaliers and new look Lakers. Toronto I 18-13 SU at home this season with a +/- of +2.4PPG. New Orleans is 10-19 SU away this season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. Clearly neither of those average point differential differences are enough for the Raptors to cover this number. The Raptors are one of the worst overall shooting and 3-point shooting teams in the NBA and will have a tough time scoring against this Pelicans defense that is 7th best in the league in defensive efficiency ratings. The Pelicans have had great success in this series with 5 straight covers overall and a 5-1 ATS record their last six visits to Toronto.

#738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -6 over New Mexico, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - The Broncos have been waiting for this one and that’s stating it lightly. These 2 met back on January 21st and New Mexico won that game at home 81-79 in OT. The Lobos trailed for much of the game (led for about 12 of the 40 minutes in regulation) and never led by more than 5 points despite Boise hitting only 20% of their 3 point shots (5 of 24) which is well below their season average of 36%. Boise head coach Leon Rice was also extremely upset with a halftime incident in which they were headed back to their locker room and the hallway leading back was lined with New Mexico baseball players who were waiting to be introduced to the crowd. Those baseball players were trash talking the BSU players in the very narrow hallway which could have turned into a “riot” according to Rice. That will give the Broncos a little extra fire at home for this game although they shouldn’t need it. BSU has been nearly unbeatable at home in Mountain West play winning 32 of their last 35 including a perfect 7-0 this season with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. They shoot 49% as a team at home including 40% from beyond the arc so we don’t expect another 20% effort from the Broncos. The Boise State defense is among the best in the nation ranking 10th in adjusted efficiency, 20th in PPG allowed, and 22nd defending the arc. At home they allow just 59 PPG. New Mexico is coming off an enormous offensive performance @ San Jose State, however they were trending down losing 5 of their previous 6 games prior to that big win. The Lobos shot a ridiculous 64% in that win, including 61% from 3, and made 21 FT’s. No way they come close to those numbers vs the top defense in the MWC on the road. Boise, on the other hand, is coming off a rather ho-hum performance winning a close game vs UNLV as they were undoubtedly looking ahead to this revenger. Boise is just 1 game behind San Diego State for 1st place in the Mountain West and we like them to win and cover on Wednesday night.

#642 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan State -2.5 over Indiana, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This is a huge home game for MSU coming off their loss @ Michigan over the weekend and with 2 straight road games on deck. We were on Michigan over Sparty on Saturday and picked up a 12 point in what we thought was a great spot to fade MSU. Now we’re in a different scenario getting the Spartans at home off the loss vs an IU team that trailed at home most of the way on Saturday but pulled out a tight win. The Hoosiers were behind at half and most of the 2nd half at home vs a short handed Illinois team on Saturday (Illini were minus their leading scorer) but squeaked by with a 3 point win when the Illini scored 3 points in the final 4 minutes of the game. Now IU is on the road where they are just 4-6 on the season and they have a huge rivalry game with Purdue on deck. The Hoosiers numbers take a huge dip on the road where their average margin this season is -5 PPG. They average just 66 PPG away from home while putting up an average of 81 PPG at home. The Hoosiers are just 2-7-1 ATS on the road this season. Sparty is 10-2 at home this season and a perfect 3-0 when playing at home off a loss. Their defense has been very good all season (27th nationally in efficiency) and they are the #1 team in the Big 10 defending the arc allowing just 27% in conference games. MSU takes it to another level at home on the defensive end allowing just 59 PPG. IU took the first meeting rather easily winning 82-69 at home. The Hoosiers hit 60% of their 3’s in that game and outscored MSU by 15 points from the arc. We don’t see that happening here. Home team 26-10 ATS the last 36 meetings and we like Michigan State to get the win and cover.

#778 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -2 over Michigan State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Wolverines last Saturday were laying -2 at home vs Indiana. It was a game Michigan led pretty much throughout but went the final 5:00+ minutes of the game without scoring a single point and lost to the Hoosiers 62-61. Michigan missed their final 8 shots of the game and didn’t go to the FT line once in the final 5:00 minutes. IU’s first lead of the 2nd half came with under 3:00 remaining in the game. The Wolverines followed that up with a loss @ Wisconsin on Tuesday night and they are now in must win mode at home. Their only other home loss in Big 10 play was a tight game (75-70) vs Purdue and the Wolverines played that game without one of their top players, Jett Howard. On Saturday Michigan is laying -1.5 (opening line) vs MSU so less than last week vs IU despite the fact that the Hoosiers rank 10+ spots higher than the Spartans per KenPom. When these 2 met in East Lansing this season Sparty was favored by 3.5 and won 59-53. That tells us this line should be Michigan by around 4 points (or a bit higher) which is right in line with our power ratings giving us value on the host here. In that first meeting Michigan shot just 35% from the field and a terrible 15% from beyond the arc and scored only 18 points in the first half. Even with that terrible offensive performance, they still had a shot at the road win. MSU has been through a lot this week which is not ideal. Their game vs Minnesota on Wednesday was cancelled and school was called off until next week due to the terrible shooting tragedy on campus. Sparty continued to practice but per their head coach Tom Izzo their practices were “awful” midweek which is completely understandable. This is a tough spot for them on the road where they have not been good this season. They have a losing road record on the season and are scoring just 63 PPG away from home this season. The host has dominated this rivalry with the home team winning and covering 9 straight. Make that 10 straight with the Wolverines on Saturday night.

#10 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Dallas Stars Puck Line (-1.5 goals +105) over Columbus Blue Jackets, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET - Great spot here with Dallas off a tough shootout loss at Minnesota last night and Columbus off a rare win.  The Blue Jackets are 0-7 last 7 times off win.  Columbus is one of the worst teams in the league and those 7 losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 2.3 goals.  Hungry Stars team, ready to respond off 3 straight losses and Dallas has NOT lost 4 straight games all season long!  The last 9 wins for the Stars have been by an average margin of 3 goals apiece.  Wedgewood likely starting between pipes tonight since Oettinger was in goal last night but the back-up netminder for Dallas has allowed 2 or less goals in 3 of last 4 starts!  Home team in a blowout per our computer math model as the Stars get right back on track. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Dallas is the value play here.

#652 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas State -3 over Iowa State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - KSU has lost 5 of their last 7 games and now they are backed into a corner at home in a must win spot. 4 of those 5 losses have come on the road and their only home loss this season was 69-66 setback vs Texas (13-1 home record for KSU). The Cats have dropped from 1st place in the Big 12 to 5th place 1 game behind today’s opponent Iowa State. The Cyclones have one of the most dramatic home – road dichotomies on the Big 12. While they are 6-1 at home, ISU is just 2-5 on the road in conference play. Their 2 road wins in Big 12 play came way back in early January and they have since lost 5 straight away from home. On the road for the season ISU is averaging just 64 PPG and getting outscored by an average of 5.5 points per game. Kansas State at home this season has won by an average score of 75-60 and their defense has been outstanding at Bramlage Coliseum holding opponents to just 38% from the field overall and 25% from beyond the arc. That’ll be a problem for an ISU team that struggles to score on the road. When these 2 met in January in Ames, IA, the Cyclones squeaked out an 80-76 win. ISU shot 57% from the field at home in that game yet KSU still had a shot to win trailing by 2 points with under 30 seconds remaining. Now on the road, we expect the Cyclones to shoot much closer to their average which is 44% away from home. KSU has covered 6 of their last 7 home games and they are 10-4 ATS here on the season. We look for the Wildcats to bounce back at home and pick up a win & cover.

#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -1 over New Mexico, Friday at 10:30 PM ET - New Mexico has fallen off a cliff since their perfect 14-0 start. Since January 1st the Lobos have a record of 5-7 and they have lost 4 in a row, 3 of those as favorites. They now sit under .500 in the Mountain West (6-7 record) despite playing the easiest conference schedule to date. The New Mexico defense has really taken a hit over the last few weeks allowing opponents to make over 50% of their shots and 41% of their 3 pointers all while allowing nearly 79 PPG over the last 5 games. San Jose State has been quietly having a solid season with a record of 16-10 overall and 7-6 (5th place) in the MWC. They have one of the most unheralded yet successful coaches in college hoops with Tim Miles who coaches previously at Nebraska, North Dakota State, & Colorado State. He took over a SJSU program in 2021/22 that had a grand total of 20 wins the previous 4 seasons and already has them with a shot at a 20 win season this year. The Spartans are 5-1 at home in conference play this season and have won 3 of their last 4 games. These 2 met in mid January when New Mexico was 16-2 on the season. The Lobos easily won at home 77-57 and the Spartans were abysmal offensively in that game shooting just 34% overall, just 19% from beyond the arc and made only 9 FT’s. The Lobos hit 53% of their shots on that day and made 20 FT’s. That performance should give San Jose a little extra juice at home on Friday night. New Mexico leading scorer Jaelen House has missed the last 2 games due to a hamstring injury and head coach Richard Pitino said he’s not sure if he’ll be ready on Friday. Even if he does play, a hamstring problem could severely limit his quickness which is a key part of his game. The host is an impressive 15-3 ATS in this series and we’ll call for another home win and cover tonight.

#52 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Calgary Flames Puck Line (-1.5 goals +115) over Detroit Red Wings, Thursday at 9:05 PM ET - Great spot here with Red Wings off 4 straight wins after sneaking out an OT win last night at Edmonton.  Now Detroit is in a B2B spot and facing a Calgary team playing with revenge as these teams just met last week in Detroit and the Red Wings snuck out a tight win over the Flames.  This will be a home ice blowout.  Calgary is off a loss and is 8-3 the last 11 times when off a loss.  Also, the Flames lost their most recent home game but entered that one having won 4 of last 5 on home ice.  Calgary's last 7 wins have come by an average margin of nearly 3 goals per game so we look for a multi-goal win here.  Red Wings used their top goalie, Husso, last night so that makes this spot even tougher for them.  Detroit's last 9 road losses have come by an average margin of 2.3 goals per game.  Home team in a blowout per our computer math model as the Flames get their revenge.  Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Calgary is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 vs Utah Jazz, 8:10 PM ET - The Grizzlies are coming off a loss in Boston on the 12th and will look to rebound against the Jazz back at home. Utah is off a road win in Indianapolis on the 13th but are just 3-6 SU their last nine games. Memphis is 23-5 SU at home with the 2nd best average Margin of Victory on their home court at +10.5PPG. When coming off a loss and playing at home the Grizz are 6-3 SU and ATS. Utah is 11-18 SU for the season on the road with a negative differential of -2.4PPG. The last time these two teams met on this court was back on Jan 8th with the Grizzlies winning 123-118 as a -5.5-point favorite. Memphis played that game without Ja Morant or Steven Adams and Utah had Mike Conley. The home team has won 5 straight in this series and with the Grizzlies +/- at home we like them to win and do so by their average MOV. Lay it!

ASA Top Play on 10* LA Clippers -8 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Clippers catch a break here having been off since Feb 10th, a home game and loss to Milwaukee. The Warriors on the other hand are coming off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. That typically means “load management” for a few Warrior starters. Golden State is the worst spread record team in the NBA on the road this season with an 8-19 ATS record and own a negative average point differential of -7.8PPG. As we mentioned the Clippers are rested which means Leonard and George will be in the lineup. When playing with 3 days rest the Clippers are 26-7-1 ATS their last 34. Los Angeles is playing with same season revenge here too as they lost in Golden State by 17-points earlier this season. Scheduling is a key factor here so we’ll lay the points with the Clippers.

#626 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Providence +2.5 over Creighton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Buy low, sell high spot here. The Jays are at the top end of their market right now having won 8 straight games. They are coming off a huge home win over UConn, a game they had been waiting for since losing to the Huskies earlier this season. Now they are on the road facing a Friars team who has lost 2 of their last 3 games, both on the road, including a 5 point setback on St Johns on Saturday as a 4.5 point favorite. They get a shot at revenge here after losing @ Creighton in mid January, a game that started the Blue Jays current winning streak. In that game, Creighton was favored by 7 and topped Providence by 5 points shooting 48% from the field compared to 38% for the Friars. Providence also played that game without one of the top players and starting PG Jared Bynum who is back healthy now and has averaged 23 PPG since his return 5 games ago. Providence is 13-0 at home this season averaging 83 PPG while allowing 66 PPG. The Jays are 3-3 on the road in league play but 2 of those wins came vs Butler and Georgetown, 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Big East. Their other road win was @ Seton Hall where Creighton shot a ridiculous 61% for the game and 60% from 3 point land. Based on the previous line between these 2 @ Creighton, the Friars should be a slight favorite here but they are getting points. Take the value with Providence at home.

ASA top play on 10* MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES +8 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - This line is clearly inflated with the hype surrounding Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic joining forces in Dallas. I find it very interesting Kyrie has played with some of the biggest names in the game (LeBron, KD, Tatum, Harden) and yet is never happy? I think in the end this will be another failed experiment in Dallas as you have two ball-dominant point guards and sharing the rock isn’t a priority for either. In any case, the Mavericks will take time to adjust and solidify rotations and it’s not like they were a great favorite this season. The Mavs are 12-25-2 ATS as a chalk this season with a +/- in those games of +3.6PPG (not enough to cover here). Minnesota has a winning spread record as a dog at 16-14 ATS with an average differential of minus -2.2PPG. The Wolves brought in vet point guard Michael Conley which should pay immediate dividends as his pick and roll skills are much better than since departed Russell. Minnesota is 6-4 SU their last ten games with some impressive wins over some of the better teams in the West. Minnesota won earlier this season at home by 10-points, then played the Mavs tough in Dallas in a 5-point loss. We expect another close game here.

ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Arizona Coyotes Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Nashville Predators, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Nashville is off an OT win but still only 6-5 last 11 games. The big key about the 6 wins, however, is the fact that 4 of the 6 wins were by just a single goal. That means that only twice in last 11 games have the Predators recorded a win by more than a 1-goal margin. Here the Preds are hosting a Coyotes team that has been ultra competitive of late so there is a lot of line value here with the +1.5 goals. Arizona enters this game 3-1-3 last 7 games. Yes, 3 of last 4 losses have been in OT or SO so they were 1 goal defeats. Only once in last seven games have the Coyotes been beaten by more than a 1-goal margin. This should be another ultra-competitive game and we will not pass up on the line value with the big underdog in this match-up. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with the road dog Arizona is the value play here.

#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON Miami FL +5.5 over North Carolina, Monday at 7 PM ET - This line is about 3 points too high according to our power ratings. The Canes sit ahead of UNC in the ACC standings with an 11-4 record (UNC is 8-6) and even their losses have come down to the wire. Miami’s 4 conference losses have come by a combined 13 points with none by more than 6. The Heels are 6-1 in ACC play at home, however they’ve played a very easy slate of teams at the Dean Dome. They’ve faced 1 team at home in conference play currently ranked inside the top 60 per KenPom and that was a loss vs Pitt (ranked 58th). Now they face the best team they’ve seen at home this entire season. The Canes are the much better shooting team in this match up. They rank #1 in the ACC (conference games) in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 2nd in 3 point FG%. On top of that they are hitting 79% of their FT’s in ACC play. UNC ranks dead last in the league in 3 point FG%, and 13th in eFG%. Miami has a solid edge in the backcourt with Wong & Pack who combine to average 29 PPG while shooting 38% and 40% from 3’s respectively. They should have a field day vs Carolina’s defense that ranks 155th guarding the arc. The Canes have shown they can knock off the best in the ACC with wins vs Virginia and Duke. UNC is 0-4 this season vs the top tier teams in the conference (UVA, Duke, Miami, and Pitt). Too many points here as even if the Heels are able to pull of this home win, we anticipate a close game.

ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Anaheim Ducks Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Vegas Golden Knights, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET - Anaheim off a 6-3 ugly home loss to Pittsburgh. Prior to this however, the Ducks had won 4 of 5 and the only loss was in the shootout so no losses by more than 1 goal in last 5 games before getting hammered by Penguins. Look for Anaheim to respond here and they catch Vegas at the right time. The Golden Knights off B2B wins by big 5 to 1 margins. Those wins included the most recent one at Minnesota as they scored 5 goals against former Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury.  Coming off B2B big-margin road wins including one like that against their former netminder, this Vegas team could be a little flat on Sunday afternoon.  The Ducks fully prepared to take advantage coming off that ugly loss.  An upset would not surprise us in the least but we we want the added value of the +1.5 goals here in case the Ducks lose by 1 goal. Added benefit as that puck line is available at plus money so this is a rare "plus plus" situation. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with the road dog Anaheim is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 1 PM ET - We like the Grizzlies plus the points in this NBA showdown. Boston is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA but Memphis is a team that can certainly come out of the West. The Grizzlies have had some ups and downs with players missing with injuries but have put together two strong games in a row beating Chicago and Minnesota. Going into the trade deadline there were rumors the Grizzlies were active, but now that everyone knows they are staying in Memphis they can relax and play. The Celtics are dealing with a few key injuries to starters Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart, which is significant when you’re trying to stop Ja Morant. Memphis and Boston rank 2nd and 5th in defensive efficiency so they are essentially even. Boston has a much better overall offensive efficiency but Memphis can get some easy opportunities with their transition game which is the 3rd best in the league. Boston is also reliant on their 3-points shooting but the Grizzlies are solid in defending the arc. The line on this game is set this low for a reason and looks like a trap. Bet Memphis plus the points.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +5 at Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - One negative here is scheduling as the Pacers just played last night at home versus the Suns and lost. But, Indiana is 7-4 SU this season when playing without rest this season and they kept all of the starters minutes to under 30. Washington beat Charlotte at home as a -3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. If the Wizards were just favored by -3.5 versus Charlotte, why are they -5 versus a better Indiana team? Washington is 13-12 SU at home this season with an average point differential of -0.7PPG which is 26th in the NBA. As a home favorite, Washington is 5-8-1 ATS, minus -0.4PPG. Indiana is a respectable 17-14 ATS when coming off a loss this season, 3-1 in their last four. Our model has Washington favored by -2.5 points here so let’s grab the value with Indiana

#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -5.5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - The Cyclones have been night and day when it comes to home vs away games in conference play this season. Overall for the season ISU is 12-0 SU at home and just 2-6 on the road. In Big 12 play they are 5-0 at home and 2-5 on the road. We’re catching them in a great spot as well coming off a road loss @ West Virginia on Wednesday night (we were on WVU). This line is short in our opinion because it looks like Oklahoma State is on a great roll winning 6 of their last 7 games. However, 5 of those 7 games have been at home and their 1 road win during that stretch was vs a free falling Oklahoma team that has lost 6 straight conference games and is only 2-9 in Big 12 play. The fact is, OSU has lost every other Big 12 road game (1-4 SU on the road) besides their win at Oklahoma. Iowa State has been dominant at home as we mentioned. Of their 12 home wins, 11 have come by double digits. Many of those wins coming vs top tier Big 12 teams as they beat Kansas by 15, Baylor by 15, and Texas by 11, all better teams than Oklahoma State. They are averaging 75 PPG at home while their defense has been stifling at Hilton Coliseum allowing just 53 PPG on 38% shooting and 28% from beyond the arc. We anticipate the OSU offense, who averages just 0.96 points per possession in Big 12 play (8th) to have all kinds of problems scoring in this one. When these 2 met in late January in Stillwater, the Cowboys made 7 more three pointers and 9 more FT’s in the game yet only won by 2 points. That’s a 30 point edge from beyond the arc + FT’s made and ISU still had a shot to win the game. In fact, ISU led for much of that game with their largest lead being 16 points while OSU largest lead at home in that game was just 3 points. Despite these 2 teams having similar Big 12 records (ISU 7-4 / OSU 6-5) the Cyclones have been the superior team by a decent margin in conference play. Iowa State is +10 points per 100 possessions (efficiency margin) in league play while Oklahoma State is dead even in that statistic. In fact, ISU leads the Big 12 in efficiency margin which tells us they are better than their 7-4 conference record. The Cowboys are 8th in the conference in that stat telling us they aren’t as good as their 6-5 record. The Cowboys are also missing a key piece to their lineup with Avery Anderson (11 PPG / 3.5 rebounds / 3.5 assists) most likely out here and contributed 18 points in the first meeting with ISU. We expect the Cyclones to win this one by double digits.

#662 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -4.5 over UConn, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The Jays are on quite a roll right now winning 10 of their last 12 games since their 7’1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner (15 PPG & 7 RPG) returned to the line up after missing 3 games in mid December (all losses). Their only 2 setbacks during this impressive run were @ Xavier by 3 and @ UConn by 9. They’ve been waiting patiently for this rematch. The Huskies have done pretty much the opposite starting the season very well but falling off as of late. They won their first 14 games of the season, but since that UConn is 5-6 over their last 11 games. The Huskies are just 3-4 on the road in Big East play and their 3 wins away from home have come vs Georgetown, DePaul, and Butler, the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. In fact, those are the only 3 Big East teams that are not ranked inside the top 100 per KenPom. In the first meeting a few weeks ago, a 69-60 UConn win, the stats were pretty even across the board with the one different being UConn made 8 three pointers (33% from deep) while Creighton made only 2 of 16 for 12%. That was an 18 point difference from beyond the arc in favor of the Huskies in that game. We expect those numbers from beyond the arc to be in favor of the Jays in this one as they shoot 36% from deep at home and make an average of 9.5 triples per game. They are 7-0 at home in Big East play this season (32-6 here their last 38 Big East games) and 5 of those wins have come by double digits. The Blue Jays average margin of victory at home in conference play this season is +16.5 PPG. We also expect them to have a big advantage at the FT line here. In the meeting @ UConn it was dead even (UConn 19 made FT’s to 18 for Creighton). The Huskies foul more than any other team in the Big East allowing 24% of their opponents points (conference games) to come from the stripe. Creighton fouls the least of any team in the league with only 14% of opponents points coming from the FT line. If we look at their Big East stats only (similar strength of schedule), Creighton is outscoring their opponents by +15 points per 100 possessions compared to UConn’s +7 points per 100 possessions. These 2 have faced each other only 6 times with Creighton winning 5 including 2-0 at home. Lay the small number with the Blue Jays on Saturday.

#890 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State -2.5 over Northern Kentucky, Friday at 9 PM ET - Wright State struggled early in the Horizon League season but they’ve hit their stride winning 4 of their last 5 games. Their lone loss during that stretch was by 2 points in OT on the road vs the top team in the conference, Youngstown State. The Raiders are now 8-7 in conference play taking on the 10-4 Northern Kentucky Norse who are overvalued in our opinion. The Norse have played 14 conference games with 9 of those coming at home. They have 3 road wins, however those have come vs the 3 worst teams in the Horizon League – UW Green Bay (ranked 361 per KenPom out of 363 teams), IUPUI (ranked 360) and Robert Morris (ranked 267). Those three teams have a combined record of 18-58 on the season so far from impressive road wins for NKU. This will be their 3rd straight road game which is far from ideal. While Northern is very solid defensively, the really struggle on the offensive end. They rank outside the top 250 in scoring, FG%, and 3 point %. They also make only 67% of their FT’s on the season. Wright State is very good offensively ranking 4th in the nation hitting over 50% of their shots on the season while averaging 81 PPG. At home that number jumps to 86 PPG while Northern KY only puts up 60 PPG on the road. We’re not sure NKU can keep up here and we’re laying a short number with Wright State. The Norse have a spread record of 7-16 (354th nationally) on the season while Wright has been a money maker as of late covering 5 straight. This is also a revenger after WSU lost at NKU earlier in the season. Take the Raiders at home on Friday Night.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10PM ET - These two teams don’t like each other after a very intense playoff series a year ago. This will be the 4th and final meeting of the regular season with the home team having won and covered the three previous clashes. The last confrontation was recently in late January in Minnesota with the Wolves winning by 11-points. Memphis made a quiet move at the trade deadline but did bring in shooter Luke Kennard. Minnesota dumped De’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt and brought in vet Mike Connelly and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. For our purposes we doubt any of these players will be in the lineups tonight. Memphis had lost 3 straight games prior to beating Chicago by 15-points at home in their most recent game. Minnesota is coming off a 143-118 win at Utah, but prior to that game gave up 146 in a loss to the Nuggets. The Grizzlies have the 2nd best +/- at home this season of +10.1PPG and an overall record of 22-5 SU. Dating back to the start of last season the Grizz are 47-26-1 ATS at home (best record in the NBA) with an average Margin of Victory of +9.6PPG. As a road dog the Wolves are an mediocre 37-35 ATS since the start of the 2021 season. Playing with quick revenge we like the Grizzlies big at home tonight.

#775 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB +3 over North Texas, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We really like this UNT team, however we’re catching a very undervalued UAB getting points and we can’t pass that up. UAB is finally back at full strength with Jelly Walker back in the lineup after missing 5 straight games from mid January to early February. Walker is the Blazers leading scoring at 22 PPG and makes nearly 40% of this 3’s along with 85% of his FT’s. He’s been back for 2 games and UAB won both including topping the best team in the conference, FAU who is 22-2 on the season, by 9 points last Thursday night. These 2 met in late January and UAB was a 3 point favorite at home in that game despite Walker not playing. UNT pulled the upset shooting 48% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc, both well above their season averages. The fact is the Mean Green are not a great shooting team despite that effort @ UAB. They rank 349th nationally averaging just 62 PPG and outside the top 300 making only 41% of their shots on the season. They are also the slowest paced team in the nation and those 2 things combined make it tough for them to win games by a large margin. UNT is 19-5 on the season yet their average margin of victory is just +7 PPG. They have played 4 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100 and lost 3 of those with their only win coming vs this undermanned UAB team who is now full strength. The 3 best teams in CUSA are FAU, UNT, and UAB. When the Blazers had Walker on the court they beat FAU handily at home as we mentioned and lost by just 2 points on the road. North Texas lost both of their games vs FAU this season. The Green have already lost 2 home games in conference play and 2 of their 4 home wins in the league have come by 4 points or fewer. The road team has won 9 in a row outright in this series & the dog has covered 5 straight. We think UAB has a great shot at the upset here and we’ll grab the points.

#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State -1 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Huge game in the Mountain West with San Diego State sitting in 1st place at 9-2 sitting one game head of Boise State, Nevada, and this Utah State team who are all 8-3. This is a quick revenge spot for USU at home after losing 75-65 @ San Diego State on January 25th. The Aztecs hit 48% of their shots in that game and from beyond the arc they were red hot making 55% of their triples which is 20+% higher than their season average of 34%. The host also made 11 more FT’s in the game. We expect Utah State to have the better shooting percentages in this game at home. USU is the #1 three point shooting team in the nation hitting just under 41% and they are also have the 5th best eFG% in the country. The Aggies are 11-1 at home this season and in their one home loss they blew an 18 point lead. At home they are shooting 50% overall and 45% from beyond the arc which averaging 83 PPG. San Diego St has a respectable 6-4 record away from home (away & neutral) but their MWC road tilts have mainly been vs the lower half of the conference. There are 5 teams ranked inside the top 80 per KenPom in the Mountain West (including both of these teams) and the Aztecs have faced one of those teams on the road this season. That was a 9 point loss vs Nevada last Tuesday. USU is a tough place to play as they are 34-7 here in conference play since the start of the 2019 season. With the number set where it is (opened USU -1) we basically just need a win from them to get a cover. Home team is 16-4-1 ATS the last 21 meetings in this MWC rivalry and another home cover is on the way tonight.

#654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -4 over Nevada, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - Love this spot for the Lobos. They are off a loss on Saturday @ Utah State and now back at home where they are 14-1 on the season. They’ve been fantastic at the Pit averaging 85 PPG with a +15 PPG margin while shooting just under 50% on the season. This is also a quick revenge spot for New Mexico as they just lost @ Nevada 97-94 in double OT on January 23rd. The Wolfpack have won 3 of their last 4 games but all of those wins have come at home. Now they go on the road where they’ve lost 3 straight and have a losing record on the season. Nevada’s drop offs on the road are fairly dramatic. They average 78 PPG at home and just 66 PPG on the road. They shoot barely 40% from the field on the road and make only 30% of their triples. All of their road losses have come by at least 6 points and the average PPG margin of their 6 road setbacks is -10.6. All but 2 of New Mexico’s 14 home wins have come by at least 8 points and they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this revenge game. We’ll lay the small number with New Mexico at home.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State -3.5 over Maryland, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Terps are on a nice roll winning 5 of their last 6 but they are now officially overvalued as well. 4 of their 5 wins during that stretch have come at home and their lone road win was @ Minnesota, the worst team in the Big 10. The Terps only other road win this season was @ Louisville so they’ve beaten the worst team in the ACC and the worst team in the Big 10 on the road and that’s it. They already have 5 conference losses away from home and those have come by an average of 14 PPG. Now they face a motivated MSU team that is coming off a loss vs Rutgers in Madison Square Garden on Saturday. Sparty is actually coming off back to back losses as they lost at Purdue prior to the Rutgers setback. That dropped them to 6-6 in the conference which is 1 game behind Maryland. This is a must win home spot here with 2 of their next 3 games on the road. Just looking at Sparty’s recent stretch may have you thinking they are in a slump losing 5 of their last 7 games. However, 4 of those 5 losses have come on the road and their only home loss during that stretch was by 1 point to Purdue, the #1 team in the nation. MSU’s PPG margin at home is +10 on the season and they have been outstanding defensively giving up just 59 PPG on 38% shooting. That’ll be a problem for a Maryland team that is averaging only 62 PPG on the road. Lay it with the Spartans at home on Tuesday.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:10 PM ET - The Bucks are playing well right now having won 9 of their last ten games but 7 of those were at home. Now they go on the road where they are 10-12-3 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.2PPG. Portland is returning home after going 2-1 on their road trip with the most recent game being a loss. The Blazers are a profitable 14-11 ATS at home this season with a +4.5PPG average Margin of Victory. In the lone meeting earlier this season the Blazers lost by 8-points in Milwaukee but were without Dame Lilliard. We get a good team, off a loss and as a home underdog. Back the Blazers!

#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -3.5 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET - What a great spot to fade the Dukies on the road vs a very good team. The Blue Devils are off a huge 63-57 home in over arch rival UNC on Saturday. It was a tight game throughout with neither team ever leading by more than 7 points. UNC took more shots but only made 34.9%, made more 3 pointers, and had fewer turnovers. The difference was Duke went to the FT line 15 times making 11 of them while the Heels were 2 of 3 from the stripe for the entire game. Only 3 FT attempts. Now on a short turnaround after that emotional game, Duke takes the road where they simply haven’t been very good this season. They have a 2-4 record in ACC play away from home with their only wins coming @ BC and @ Georgia Tech, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. Their road losses in league play have come at the hands of Wake, Va Tech, Clemson and NC State by an average margin of -11.5 PPG. These 2 met on January 21st at Cameron Indoor Stadium and the Devils barely snuck by with a 68-66 win. Now the Canes get their shot at quick revenge at home where they are a perfect 12-0 this season winning by an average of +12 PPG. The fact is the Canes have been the better team in ACC play with a points per possession differential of +10 per 100 possessions compared to Duke’s +6 per 100 possessions. Miami is the #1 offensive team in the ACC in adjusted efficiency and they foul the least of any team in the league so we won’t see the Devils with a big FT disparity as we saw on Saturday at home vs the Tar Heels. Miami has been waiting for this one since their loss a few weeks ago + they didn’t get to host Duke last season. The Devils are just 1-7 ATS following their last 8 SU wins and we like Miami to get the cover at home on Monday night.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 vs Denver Nuggets, 7:10 PM ET - This is a quick revenger game for the Timberwolves as they recently lost in Denver by 4-points as a +9-point underdog. Earlier in January they did beat the Nuggets at home by 13-points. Minnesota has had decent success in this series with 5 straight covers and a 4-1 SU mark. The Wolves are coming off a home loss to the Magic and have been solid this season when off an “L” with a 9-4 SU record. Denver is in a much tougher scheduling situation here having just played last night versus the Hawks. This will also be the Nuggets 3rd game in four days and 4th in six. Minnesota is in a great spot to get even with the Nuggets after a recent loss in Denver.

#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana -1 over Marshall, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Marshall is 19-5 on the season but they’ve played on of the easiest schedules in college basketball. They have faced a single team ranked inside the top 90 this season and 13 of their opponents are currently ranked outside the top 200. They do have a winning road record at 6-3, however the average rank of the opponents they’ve faced away from home this year is 217th. Now the face a Louisiana team who is a perfect 10-0 at home and ranked inside the top 100. The Ragin Cajuns are in the much better situational spot as well playing their 4th straight home game while Marshall just faced App State (in North Carolina) on Thursday night and now play in Louisiana just 48 hours later. That’s not a great spot for a team that has very little bench (362nd out of 363 in bench minutes) playing 2 games on the road in a short period of time. On top of that they are one of the faster paced teams in the nation which could see them wearing down at this point in the season with a short bench. This will be Marshall’s 5th game in 15 days with one of those games going to OT and another to double OT. We mentioned Louisiana has been perfect at home this season and they have been great offensive in the Cajun Dome where they average 87 PPG on 52% shooting including 44% from beyond the arc. Their average margin of victory this year at home is +20 PPG. They are 9-2 in the Sun Belt (1st place) one game ahead of Marshall and the Cajuns overall record sits at 19-4. These two met for the first time last season and Marshall rolled up a big win 93-79 as a short home favorite. Louisiana has been waiting for this one and they are rested and ready to go after spreading out their minutes on Thursday night in a 19 point home win over Texas State. We love this spot and we’re getting a high level team in a game where all they have to do is win at home to cover (line opened pick-em). Take Louisiana.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Magic continue to be one of the best spread record teams in the NBA at 29-22-1 ATS. They have covered 7 of their last ten games and have a 27-18-1 ATS record as a dog. As an Underdog they have a negative differential of minus -3.3PPG and cover those games by +3.7PPG. Minnesota is 11-16 ATS as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +1.6PPG. As a home chalk the Wolves are 6-10 ATS +1.1PPG. When Orlando has faced a Western Conference team this season, they have covered 68.4% of the time with a 13-6-1 ATS record. When it comes to facing the East the Wolves are 7-11 ATS or 38.9%. The Magic have owned the Timberwolves with a 12-3 ATS record in the last 15 meetings in Minnesota. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET- The Bucks are in a groove right now with five straight wins and 7 victories in their last eight games. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home also with the closest win coming by 8-points to the Nuggets and Raptors. The Bucks were just favored by -12.5 points against the Nuggets and are now laying marginal number against the Clippers. Milwaukee has the 5th best average MOV at home this season at +7.7PPG. The Clippers are also playing well with a 6-1 SU record their last seven games. They are coming off a win in Chicago as a -2.5-point favorite. Recently the Clippers were a +2-point dog at Dallas when both Leonard and George were in the lineup. That tells us the Bucks should be a bigger chalk here. LA is 15-14 SU on the road this season but they do have a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Both teams are getting healthy and playing well right now but at this price we have to back the home team.

#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU -4.5 over Loyola Marymount, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 just played in early January and Loyola was just a 1 point home favorite. Now we’re getting BYU at -3 at home (opening line) which is solid value in our opinion. Especially with the way the game played out @ Loyola Marymount. The Lions won that game 64-59 and it was tight throughout (tied at halftime) despite Loyola making 5 more three pointers and 10 more FT’s. The Lions went to the FT line 23 times to just 9 for BYU. Both teams shot around 41% for the game so based on that and the advantages Loyola had from the 3 point line and FT line (scored 25 more points in those 2 areas) it should have been a blowout but wasn’t. Now we get BYU at a cheap price at home as they are coming off 3 straight losses. Two of those setbacks were tight games on the road and their most recent loss was at home to the WCC’s top team St Mary’s on Saturday by the final score of 57-56. The Gaels, ranked 7th nationally per KenPom, made a shot with under 1 second remaining to get the win. What made the loss even more impressive is BYU played without 3 key players – one starter and their 2 top reserves and still almost pulled out the win. Those 3 players combine to average 19 PPG and 11 RPG along with eating up an average of 61 minutes per game so they are key contributors. All were suspended for 1 game and are back for this one. BYU has lost 2 home games in conference play this season, both by 1 point to the 2 best teams in the league, Gonzaga & St Mary’s, as we mentioned. LMU is 6-3 in West Coast Conference play but they’ve faced the easiest league schedule thus far. They have a 3-4 record in true road games and they’ve lost 18 of the last 20 meetings vs BYU. The Lions have won only once here in Provo since the 2007 season and that was way back in 2011/12 season. BYU is now 4-5 in WCC play and in must win mode at home where they have been extremely tough to beat over the years (45-8 record over their last 53 home games). Lay the small number with the Cougars at home.

#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -5.5 over Abilene Christian, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Great spot for Seattle here one of the top teams in the WAC this season. After winning their first 7 games in conference play, Seattle is coming home off back to back road losses @ Sam Houston State (the highest rated team in the conference) and Stephen F Austin (4th highest). ACU is just 3-6 in WAC play and they are coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won 2 games vs Utah Tech and UT Arlington who have a combined 4-14 record in WAC play. The Wildcats are 3-6 in league play despite playing the 2nd easiest schedule in the WAC. Away from home this team has been terrible with a 2-9 record (road & neutral). ACU’s only 2 wins away from home were vs Cal State Bakersfield (ranked 312th per KenPom) and Northern Arizona (ranked 283rd). Those 2 teams have a combined record of 12-31 on the season. Abilene Christian’s other 9 losses away from home have come by an average of 15 PPG. The Wildcats have covered just 2 of those 9 games away from home and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 7 of those 9 games. They won’t have much, if any, success offensively in this game vs a Seattle, the best defensive team in the league and one of the tops in the nation. The Redhawks rank 63rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (#1 in the WAC) and they are allowing just 59 PPG at home this season. Seattle is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and they’ve won 27 of their last 29 home games. The Redhawks return 7 of their top 9 players from last year’s 23-9 team and they have some extra motivation in this one after getting knocked out of the WAC tourney last season losing 78-76 vs this ACU team. Abilene Christian is just 11-11 this season and Seattle will be the 5th highest rated team they’ve faced this year and they are 1-8 SU vs teams ranked inside the top 190 (Seattle is 115th). Seattle gets back on track with an easy home win on Wednesday night.

ASA Top Play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +8.5 @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The Celtics just faced the Lakers and Knicks at home and were favored by the same number as they are tonight versus a better Nets team. Even without Kevin Durant the Nets rate higher than both of those teams in our power rankings. Boston split with those teams, losing to the Knicks in OT and beating the Lakers in OT. Brooklyn beat both the Lakers and Knicks by 17 and 7-points. *Note the Lakers did rest LeBron and AD against the Nets. Back on Jan 12th the Celtics beat the Nets by 11-points in Brooklyn. The big difference was the Celtics advantage on the boards +17 rebounds. The Celtics own the 3rd best average MOV at home of +8.6PPG, are 4th in offensive efficiency averaging 1.201PPP and 11th in DEFF at 1.116PPP. Brooklyn has the 4th best average point differential on the road at +1.2PPG, 27th in OEFF, but 11th in DEFF. Overall the Nets offensive efficiency has been much better in their last five games at 1.269PPP. When we analyze most recent statistical data from Jan 1st on, the Nets and Celtics have the exact same DEFF at 1.120PPP, but offensively the Nets have a slight edge in OEFF at 1.160 to 1.140. In each teams last ten games the Nets have a better +/- at +4.3PPG compared to Boston’s -4.2PPG. Nets a dog of 5 or more points just 5 times all season 5-0 ATS. Brooklyn on 5-1 ATS streak their last six, Celtics 0-6 ATS streak.

#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas -3.5 over Baylor, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re buying low here on Texas and selling high on Baylor. The Bears have won 6 straight games while the Longhorns are coming off a double digit loss @ Tennessee on Saturday. Because of that, we’re getting some decent value here. The Bears have played 3 road games during this 6 game winning streak beating WVU by 5, Texas Tech by 7, and Oklahoma by 2. Those 3 teams currently sit in 8th, 9th, and 10th place in the 10 teams Big 12. Baylor was actually a 1.5 point underdog @ last place Texas Tech (0-8 in the Big 12) and now they are just +3.5 vs a Texas team ranked in the top 10 by KenPom, thus the line value we were speaking about. The Horns are coming off a loss as we mentioned, and they’ve done so 3 times this season bouncing back nicely with wins in all of those games. They are 12-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +18 PPG while shooting nearly 51% from the field. On the road, Baylor has a -4.5 PPG differential while making only 43% of their shots. Overall these teams both rank in the top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, but on the other end of the court Texas has a solid advantage. The Bears rank dead last in the Big 12 (conference play) in adjusted defensive efficiency allowing 1.11 PPP. That will be a problem tonight vs a Texas team that averages 86 PPG at home this season. Texas played Tennessee, the top team in the SEC (#1 ranked nationally per KenPom), on the road Saturday and lost. Baylor played host to Arkansas (3-5 record in the SEC) and won by just 3 despite having huge edge at the FT line (21 made FT’s to 6 for Arkansas). We like the Horns to play with an edge at home tonight after their loss and pick up a win and cover.

#62 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Winnipeg Jets Puck Line (-1.5 goals +115) over St Louis Blues, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Both clubs enter this game on losing streaks but there is a big difference between these teams right now.  St Louis is banged up with injuries and has been getting blown out on a regular basis.  Winnipeg is having a much stronger season under coach Rick Bowness (came over from Dallas before this season) but he just laid into his team after a 4-0 home shutout to the Flyers on Saturday!  That was 3rd straight loss for Jets but they have not lost 4 straight games all season long!  Also, the Jets have a rock solid goalie in Connor Hellebuyck.  Even if David Rittich starts between the pipes that would be fine as he has allowed an average of 2 goals last 2 starts.  But Hellebuyck is the expected starter here and he is one of the top goalies in the NHL.  Conversely, the Blues have allowed tons of goals as their goaltenders are struggling.  Probably it will be Jordan Binnington but whether it is him or Thomas Greiss, both have struggled in recent starts.  The Blues have allowed 4 or or more goals in 12 of 18 games.  The Jets had given up just 2.3 goals per game last 6 home games before that 4-0 loss to Philadelphia.  Coach Bowness got the attention of this team after that loss.  To a man, these players have been challenged and they will respond here.  Jets on home ice and off a home shutout and this is the final game for these clubs before the All Star break.  St Louis is hurting and missing some key guys and other guys banged up.  Jets the healthier team and on home ice and they are a big favorite on the money line but priced with value on the puck line.  Winnipeg has beaten the Blues five straight times!  The two wins this season have both been blowouts!  The Jets entered this game with last 7 wins by an average margin of 2.4 goals apiece.  St Louis has 24 losses in regulation this season and 23 of the 24 have been by at least a 2-goal margin!  Home team in a blowout per our computer math model.  Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Winnipeg is the value play here.

#323 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - This line opened low at KC -2 due to the injury to Mahomes. It has since moved to the Bengals as a favorite and now back to KC -1.5 with the anticipation that Mahomes will play. He will, but we can’t imagine he’ll be even close to 100% based on the history of high ankle sprains and time needed to heal. He needs to be at the top of his game for the Chiefs to have a chance here and with his mobility severely limited they just aren’t the same team. Cincinnati has already beaten the Chiefs 3 times in the last 13 months and that was with Mahomes at 100%. Cincy outgained KC by 130 yards combined in those 3 games and QB Burrow has ripped apart this defense in those games with a 72% completion percentage of almost 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s. In their lone meeting this season, the Bengals defense held Mahomes to 16 completions, his lowest of the season. Last week the Bengals dominated both lines of scrimmage vs a team many thought was the best in the NFL. Cincy rolled up 172 yards rushing while holding Buffalo to 63 yards on the ground. Now they face a KC defense that allowed Jacksonville to rush for a whopping 7.6 YPC last weekend. After their 98 yard TD drive right after Mahomes was injured, the Chiefs only gained 153 total yards from that point on with their QB hobbled. Jacksonville gained 260 yards from that point on but had a few key turnovers including a fumble at the KC 3 yard line. The fact it, once Mahomes was far less than 100%, the Jags outplayed the Chiefs and KC was fortunate to win. This week Kansas City plays a better opponent but will almost assuredly be in the same situation offensively with Mahomes hobbled. Cincy, on the other hand, was firing on all cylinders last week offensively and should be able to do the same this week vs a KC defense that is not as good as the Buffalo defense they shredded for 412 yards last weekend. Cincinnati is the 2nd best spread team in the NFL this year with a 13-4-1 ATS mark. KC is the 2nd worst spread team in the league this year with a 5-12-1 ATS record. With both teams at full strength we felt the Bengals had a solid shot at the upset and now with the situation we have, we feel it will be very difficult for Kansas City to win this game. Cincinnati heads back to the Super Bowl.

#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We weren’t overly impressed with San Fran last week in their 19-12 win over Dallas. We felt the Cowboys absolutely outplayed the host Niners for the first 3 quarters before running out of gas late in the game. That wasn’t surprising as Dallas was playing their 4th straight week on the road and the overall numbers for those teams aren’t good, especially late in the game. That game was tied 9-9 entering the 4th quarter and Dallas had outgained San Francisco 219 to 147 when the Niners when on their long (and only) TD drive. The point is, they were at home last week playing an opponent in a very bad situational spot and struggled. That same opponent, the Cowboys, finished 2 games behind Philly in the NFC East. QB Purdy finally came back to earth a bit last week (219 yards pass and 0 TD’s) has he finally faced a defense with a pulse. In 5 of his 7 starts leading up to last weekend vs Dallas, he had faced defenses ranked 18th or lower. His 2 career road starts were both tight wins @ Seattle (won by 8) and @ Las Vegas (won in OT). Now he takes a HUGE step up in competition traveling to the east coast for his first ever playoff start facing the 2nd best defense in the NFL the Eagles who are also 1st in the league vs the pass. Philly, similar to the Dallas defense last week, is great at pressuring the QB with a league high 70 sacks this season, 15 more than anyone else in the NFL. We expect Purdy to struggle. Philly is 15-3 on the season but 2 of those losses came when QB Hurts was out with an injury. Thus, with him in the lineup, the Eagles are 15-1 and they dominated the Giants last week 38-7 outgaining NY by nearly 200 yards. They are also rested and healthy after having a bye the previous week. At home this year the Eagles have a winning margin of +11 PPG and a yardage margin of +105 YPG. They were 7-2 ATS in home games with Hurts as their starting QB. San Francisco was just 4-4 ATS on the road this season and they played only 1 road game this season vs a team that ended the year with a winning record, Seattle, and they barely made the cut with a 9-8 regular season record. We have these teams rated very close overall, however we like the home field edge and QB advantage here with Hurts, an MVP candidate, vs Purdy making his first road playoff start and first road start vs a high level team. Getting Philly under a FG at home is value in our opinion.

#843 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +4 over Iowa, Sunday at 2 PM ET - This is a revenger for Rutgers after losing at home to Iowa back on January 8th. Rutgers, the 2nd best defensive team in the nation allowing 0.86 PPP, allowed the Hawks to put up 1.12 PPP in that loss. It was not only the worst defensive performance for Rutgers on a PPP allowed basis, it was also the most points they’ve allowed the entire season (76). Iowa was a 5.5 point dog in that game and now we’re getting the better overall team, Rutgers (16th nationally KenPom compared to Iowa at 36th), as a dog here. The Knights are the best defensive team in Big 10 play on a points per possession basis (0.94) and Iowa is the worst defense in conference play allowing 1.09 PPP. The Hawkeyes are also the worst eFG% defense in the Big 10. Rutgers has won 8 of their last 10 games while Iowa is 5-5 during that stretch. The Knights have already proven they can get it done on the road beating Purdue in West Lafayette which is the Boilers only loss this season (20-1 record). The underdog is 9-2-1 last 12 meetings and we expect this one to go to the wire. We’ll take the MUCH better defensive team, getting points, in revenge mode.

#775 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas +3 over Kentucky, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We’re buying Kansas low here as they have lost 3 straight games. To put that in perspective, since the start of the 2001 season, the Jayhawks have had a grand total of three 3 game losing streaks and have not lost 4 in a row during that span. They are getting points in this game from a Kentucky team that has already lost at home to South Carolina, the lowest rated team in the SEC. The Wildcats already have 6 losses (14-6 record) facing the 84th most difficult schedule in the country. KU, on the other hand, is 16-4 on the season facing the #1 most difficult schedule and they were 16-1 prior to this 3 game speed bump. All 3 of those recent losses have come vs top 25 teams per KenPom. The Cats have already lost to 3 teams this year ranked outside the top 40 per Ken Pom (Missouri, South Carolina, and Michigan State) and they are back to being overvalued based on their 4 game winning streak. Three of those wins have come vs Texas A&M, UGA, and Vandy, ranked 6th, 10th, and 12th in the SEC. Their one impressive win in SEC play came over Tennessee and that was a bounce back game after losing at home to South Carolina. These 2 are comparable offensively when it comes to key metrics, but Kansas has a solid edge defensively ranking 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency while the Wildcats rank 57th. The Jayhawks have also faced the much tougher slate of offenses as every team in the Big 12 with the exception of 1 is ranked inside the top 100 in offensive efficiency with half of the teams (5) ranking in the top 30 in that category. Finally this is a revenger for Kansas as well as they were embarrassed at home vs Kentucky last season as 5-point favorites. That Wildcat team, however was far superior to this one, as they ended the season ranked 6th in KenPom while this year’s version is 30th. Take the points as we expect Kansas to win this game outright.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin +2 over Illinois, Saturday at 2 PM ET - This is a must win home game for the Badgers. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games to drop onto the NCAA bubble. On the other hand, the Illini have won 5 of 6 so this is a buy low – sell high situation with Wisconsin at home getting points. The Badgers losing stretch began on January 7th when they lost by 10 to this Illinois team on the road. They were without their best overall frontcourt player, Tyler Wahl, in that game and he has since returned. The Illini shot 59% from beyond the arc in that game which is well above their 32% mark on the season (237th nationally). Wisconsin, who is the much better 3 point shooting team (56th nationally) only made 28% of their 3’s in that game. During the Illini’s current winning stretch, they’ve played only 2 road games vs the 2 worst teams in the Big 10, winning both @ Minnesota and @ Nebraska. Prior to that they had lost their 2 other conference road games @ Northwestern and @ Maryland. UW was beaten badly @ Maryland on Wednesday night but that was a very tough spot for this team after having to reschedule their previous game vs Northwestern from Saturday to Monday evening due to the Cats Covid issue. They were also missing their top perimeter defender and starting guard Klesmit for both of those games but he has been practicing and it looks like he’ll return so Wisconsin should finally be at full strength. Their only conference home loss was vs Michigan State, a game Wisconsin led late but lost by 4, and that was without Wahl in the lineup. The host really needs this win as they are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games. We’ll call for Wisconsin to get the win at home.

ASA Top Play On 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +7.5 vs. Miami Heat – 8:10 PM ET - The Magic continue to reward their backers with a 14-7 ATS record when getting more than +7.5-points this season. Miami has struggled in the role of a favorite with a 5-10 ATS mark when laying -5 or more points. Overall, the Heat are 9-15-1 ATS at home with a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Orlando is on a perfect 6-0 ATS run when playing on the road against teams with a winning home record greater than .600. Miami could let down here as they are coming off a huge home win over a big rival in the Boston Celtics. Orlando has won 3 of their last four games and 2 straight. Orlando has covered 6 of the last eight in the Florida rivalry and is a live dog here.

#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON Robert Morris -2.5 over Detroit, Friday at 7 PM ET - Robert Morris and Detroit are tied in the Horizon League with 4-6 records. RM has played the toughest schedule in the conference with 7 of their 10 games thus far coming on the road. The Colonials haven’t been home since January 9th and they are coming off a 4 game road trip. Their most recent game was last Saturday so they’ve had a week off to rest and prepare for a rare home game. RM’s only conference home loss was vs Cleveland State, one of two teams in the Horizon ranked inside the top 200. Detroit, despite playing an easier schedule (7th in the league) only has 4 wins as well. The Titans have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with their last and that win was vs IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon and one of the worst in the country. These 2 teams just met on January 15th in Detroit and the Titans came away with an 87-75 win. The host Titans shot lights out in that game hitting 53% overall and 59% from beyond the arc. We don’t expect another effort like that tonight on the road where they shoot just 39% on the season. Robert Morris has a huge edge defensively here ranking as the 4th best team in the league in defensive efficiency and #1 in the conference defending inside the arc. Detroit ranks outside the top 300 nationally in almost every key defensive category. While RM has had a week off to get ready for this revenger, Detroit played Saturday & Monday so tonight will be their 3rd game in 7 days. We like Robert Morris as a small home favorite in this one.

#754 ASA TOP PLAY ON Western Illinois -5 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Revenger for WIU here who played their worst conference game this season @ South Dakota which was a 17 point loss. In that first meeting at the end of December WIU made only 39% of their overall shots and just 17% from beyond the arc. That is well below their season averages of 46% and 32% respectively. Since that loss, Western Illinois has played their best ball of the year with a 4-2 record. South Dakota, on the other hand, is 2-3 since that win. The Coyotes are just 4-4 Summit League play despite facing the easiest conference schedule thus far. They are 1-2 on the road in conference play with their only win coming by 2 points @ North Dakota who is the 2nd worst team in the Summit League. South Dakota is just 1-6 SU on the road this season losing by an average of 17 PPG while averaging only 55 PPG. Western Illinois is 9-2 at home on the year winning by an average of 13 PPG while averaging 82 PPG on offense. South Dakota is coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won only 1 game vs Nebraska Omaha, the lowest rated team in the Summit. WIU has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Oral Roberts who is by far the best team in the conference (only top 100 team in the league). South Dakota has scored 62, 61, and 45 points in their 3 conference road games while WIU has topped 70 points in 4 of their 5 home games. We like the revenge angle and we don’t think South Dakota can keep up offensively in this game. Lay the points.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -3 vs Toronto Raptors, 10 PM ET - The Kings are quietly sitting 3rd in the Western Conference at 27-19 and continue to fly under the radar. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is the 6th best average in the NBA. Toronto is 6-15 SU away from home this season with an average Margin of Victory of minus -2.2PPG. The Raptors are 1-3 ATS their last four on the road. You’ll also be surprised to know the Kings have been solid ATS as a favorite this season. When laying less than double-digits the Kings have rewarded backers with a 14-8 ATS record. Sacramento is the #1 rated offensive efficiency team at home this season at 1.227-points per possession, whereas the Raptors rank 15th on the road in OEFF. The Raptors do hold an edge defensively but it’s not as great a difference as the offensive numbers that favor the Kings. Sacramento is 5-1 SU their last six at home and the five wins came by 21.6PPG. We like them here minus the short number.

#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State -10 over Fresno State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the superior team Boise State. The Broncos are coming off an OT loss on Friday night @ New Mexico. Fresno is coming off a win as a home dog beating UNLV on Saturday which gives Boise an extra day to get ready for this one. The Broncos entered Friday’s game @ New Mexico on a 5 game winning streak and they had won 14 of their previous 16 before that loss. At home they’ve been dominant to say the least winning 21 of their last 23 games at Extra Mile Arena. Their PPG margin this season is +12 and at home that jumps to +18 per game. They are averaging 77 PPG at home and we just don’t see Fresno keeping up here. The Bulldogs are one of the lowest scoring teams in the nation averaging only 61 PPG (356th nationally). They don’t make many 3’s (325th in 3 point %) and don’t get the FT line very often. We don’t see them getting into the 60’s in this game vs a Boise State defense that ranks 9th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 20th in eFG% defense. In home games they are allowing just 58 PPG on 39% shooting. Fresno’s 3 road games in Mountain West play have all been losses by 10, 13, and 22 points and Boise State will be the highest rated team they’ve faced so far this season (25th nationally per KenPom). The Bulldogs leading scorer & rebounder, Moore, is in concussion protocol and may not play here. Even if he does, we like Boise to roll up a big win coming off their loss on Friday night.

#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -3 over New Mexico, Monday at 9 PM ET - Nevada is 9-0 at home and their head coach, Steve Alford who was the head man at New Mexico from 2007 – 2013, has never lost to the Lobos since taking over at Nevada (6-0 record). The Wolfpack have had a full week off to rest and prepare for this game while New Mexico is coming off a huge OT win at home vs Boise on Friday night. That was a huge, come from behind win for the Lobos that pushed them into a tie for 2nd place in the MWC with Boise State, Utah State, and this Nevada team. The Wolfpack have played the toughest schedule thus far in league play and the 2nd most difficult overall schedule (29th nationally) of any team in the MWC not named San Diego State. Despite playing that very tough schedule, the Wolfpack have a very good 15-5 record with all of their losses coming vs top 100 teams on the road (or neutral). Their average margin of victory at home this season is +15 PPG and they are holding their opponents to just 62 PPG at Lawler Events Center. If Nevada needs to salt this game away with FT’s late, they are the 8th best FT shooting team in the nation hitting almost 80% as a team. UNM is 2-1 on the road in Mountain West play with an impressive win @ San Diego State with the Aztecs making only 25% of their 3’s and 52% of their FT’s in that loss. Their other 2 conference road games were a loss @ Fresno State who has a 7-11 record and is the 2nd lowest rated team in the league and a 1 point win @ Wyoming who is 6-13 and rated as the worst team in the MWC. Nevada has beaten New Mexico 8 straight times at home with the Lobos last win here coming in 2016. The Wolfpack are 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 home games overall dating back to last year and the favorite in this series has covered 6 of the last 7. Lay it with Nevada.

ASA top play on 10* HOUSTON ROCKETS +5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 1/23 8:10 PM ET - These same two teams just squared off in Minnesota on Saturday with the Wolves winning by 9-points. Minnesota was favored by 8-points at home and are now laying -5.5 on the road which doesn’t equate. Houston played well the other night but 21-turnovers and 14 missed free throws turned out to be the difference. We expect them to play much better at home and also feel it’s highly unlikely Anthony Edwards can produce another 44-point outing as he did Saturday. On the season the Rockets have an average +- at home of minus -4.5PPG while the Wolves road differential is -2.7PPG. As a home dog this season the Rockets have a 9-8-2 ATS record but more importantly their average loss margin is just -3.6PPG which is obviously within tonight’s number. We like the home dog in this situation and will grab whatever points are available.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -7.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 8:40 PM ET - Most times ‘revenge’ doesn’t work in the NBA but it’s certainly a factor in this high-profile showdown. In late December the Warriors visited the Nets in Brooklyn and were drilled 143-113. Golden State sat Curry, Wiggins, Thompson and Green in that game who are all available today. At first glance, this looks like a high number but considering the Nets were just plus +5 at Utah, it makes sense a healthy GST team is -7.5. Golden State has been really good at home this year with a 17-5 SU record and an average plus/minus of +6.7PPG. Brooklyn can boast some solid road numbers, but a big portion of those wins came with Kevin Durant on the floor who is out tonight. We will lay the points with Golden State.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Jags on the road after 2 must win, come from behind home wins the last 2 weeks. To end the regular season Jacksonville played a “win and in” game for the AFC South crown vs Tennessee and trailed in the 4th quarter before coming back to win 20-16. On top of that, the Jaguars were outgained by nearly 100 yards in that game vs a Tennessee offense with 3rd string QB Josh Dobbs under center. Last week we all watched them get down 27-0 and make a furious 2nd half comeback to beat the Chargers 31-30. What do they have left in the physical and emotional tank after those 2 dramatic wins? This team probably shouldn’t even be here at this point and now they must play a road game versus a KC team who is coming off a bye and is completely comfortable in this situation (playoff pressure) while Jacksonville is not. We do have one data point to look closely at as these teams met here in KC back in mid November. The Chiefs were favored by 10 in that game and won 27-17. It was actually a much more dominant performance by KC in that game. They outgained Jacksonville by +2.6 yards per play with KC averaging a massive 7.8 YPP while holding the Jags to 5.2 YPP. On top of that, the Chiefs were -3 turnovers in that game and still able to win by double digits. We expect the Kansas City offense to have their way in this game as they did in the first meeting averaging nearly 8 yards per play as we discussed. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 24th in total defense and 28th in pass defense and that’s facing the EASIEST schedule of offenses this season. Now they face the #1 offense in the NFL with 2 weeks to prepare and a QB Mahomes that is playing at the top of his game. Since Mahomes took over as the starting QB for KC, he has a record of 7-2 in home playoff games with those 7 wins coming by an average of 13.6 PPG. The Jags defense faced 7 teams this season which ended the year ranked in the top 15 in total offense. In those games Jacksonville allowed an average of 28 PPG. KC head coach Andy Reid has a remarkable 29-6 record in games with an added week of rest advantage (63% cover rate in those games) and in his 19 playoff wins, 15 have come by double digits. We like Kansas City to win this game by at least 10 points.