Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-15-23 | Jazz v. Grizzlies -7.5 | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 vs Utah Jazz, 8:10 PM ET - The Grizzlies are coming off a loss in Boston on the 12th and will look to rebound against the Jazz back at home. Utah is off a road win in Indianapolis on the 13th but are just 3-6 SU their last nine games. Memphis is 23-5 SU at home with the 2nd best average Margin of Victory on their home court at +10.5PPG. When coming off a loss and playing at home the Grizz are 6-3 SU and ATS. Utah is 11-18 SU for the season on the road with a negative differential of -2.4PPG. The last time these two teams met on this court was back on Jan 8th with the Grizzlies winning 123-118 as a -5.5-point favorite. Memphis played that game without Ja Morant or Steven Adams and Utah had Mike Conley. The home team has won 5 straight in this series and with the Grizzlies +/- at home we like them to win and do so by their average MOV. Lay it! |
|||||||
02-14-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -8 | Top | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* LA Clippers -8 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Clippers catch a break here having been off since Feb 10th, a home game and loss to Milwaukee. The Warriors on the other hand are coming off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. That typically means “load management” for a few Warrior starters. Golden State is the worst spread record team in the NBA on the road this season with an 8-19 ATS record and own a negative average point differential of -7.8PPG. As we mentioned the Clippers are rested which means Leonard and George will be in the lineup. When playing with 3 days rest the Clippers are 26-7-1 ATS their last 34. Los Angeles is playing with same season revenge here too as they lost in Golden State by 17-points earlier this season. Scheduling is a key factor here so we’ll lay the points with the Clippers. |
|||||||
02-14-23 | Creighton v. Providence +2.5 | Top | 86-94 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
#626 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Providence +2.5 over Creighton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Buy low, sell high spot here. The Jays are at the top end of their market right now having won 8 straight games. They are coming off a huge home win over UConn, a game they had been waiting for since losing to the Huskies earlier this season. Now they are on the road facing a Friars team who has lost 2 of their last 3 games, both on the road, including a 5 point setback on St Johns on Saturday as a 4.5 point favorite. They get a shot at revenge here after losing @ Creighton in mid January, a game that started the Blue Jays current winning streak. In that game, Creighton was favored by 7 and topped Providence by 5 points shooting 48% from the field compared to 38% for the Friars. Providence also played that game without one of the top players and starting PG Jared Bynum who is back healthy now and has averaged 23 PPG since his return 5 games ago. Providence is 13-0 at home this season averaging 83 PPG while allowing 66 PPG. The Jays are 3-3 on the road in league play but 2 of those wins came vs Butler and Georgetown, 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Big East. Their other road win was @ Seton Hall where Creighton shot a ridiculous 61% for the game and 60% from 3 point land. Based on the previous line between these 2 @ Creighton, the Friars should be a slight favorite here but they are getting points. Take the value with Providence at home. |
|||||||
02-13-23 | Wolves +8 v. Mavs | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES +8 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - This line is clearly inflated with the hype surrounding Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic joining forces in Dallas. I find it very interesting Kyrie has played with some of the biggest names in the game (LeBron, KD, Tatum, Harden) and yet is never happy? I think in the end this will be another failed experiment in Dallas as you have two ball-dominant point guards and sharing the rock isn’t a priority for either. In any case, the Mavericks will take time to adjust and solidify rotations and it’s not like they were a great favorite this season. The Mavs are 12-25-2 ATS as a chalk this season with a +/- in those games of +3.6PPG (not enough to cover here). Minnesota has a winning spread record as a dog at 16-14 ATS with an average differential of minus -2.2PPG. The Wolves brought in vet point guard Michael Conley which should pay immediate dividends as his pick and roll skills are much better than since departed Russell. Minnesota is 6-4 SU their last ten games with some impressive wins over some of the better teams in the West. Minnesota won earlier this season at home by 10-points, then played the Mavs tough in Dallas in a 5-point loss. We expect another close game here. |
|||||||
02-13-23 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Predators | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Arizona Coyotes Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Nashville Predators, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Nashville is off an OT win but still only 6-5 last 11 games. The big key about the 6 wins, however, is the fact that 4 of the 6 wins were by just a single goal. That means that only twice in last 11 games have the Predators recorded a win by more than a 1-goal margin. Here the Preds are hosting a Coyotes team that has been ultra competitive of late so there is a lot of line value here with the +1.5 goals. Arizona enters this game 3-1-3 last 7 games. Yes, 3 of last 4 losses have been in OT or SO so they were 1 goal defeats. Only once in last seven games have the Coyotes been beaten by more than a 1-goal margin. This should be another ultra-competitive game and we will not pass up on the line value with the big underdog in this match-up. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with the road dog Arizona is the value play here. |
|||||||
02-13-23 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON Miami FL +5.5 over North Carolina, Monday at 7 PM ET - This line is about 3 points too high according to our power ratings. The Canes sit ahead of UNC in the ACC standings with an 11-4 record (UNC is 8-6) and even their losses have come down to the wire. Miami’s 4 conference losses have come by a combined 13 points with none by more than 6. The Heels are 6-1 in ACC play at home, however they’ve played a very easy slate of teams at the Dean Dome. They’ve faced 1 team at home in conference play currently ranked inside the top 60 per KenPom and that was a loss vs Pitt (ranked 58th). Now they face the best team they’ve seen at home this entire season. The Canes are the much better shooting team in this match up. They rank #1 in the ACC (conference games) in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 2nd in 3 point FG%. On top of that they are hitting 79% of their FT’s in ACC play. UNC ranks dead last in the league in 3 point FG%, and 13th in eFG%. Miami has a solid edge in the backcourt with Wong & Pack who combine to average 29 PPG while shooting 38% and 40% from 3’s respectively. They should have a field day vs Carolina’s defense that ranks 155th guarding the arc. The Canes have shown they can knock off the best in the ACC with wins vs Virginia and Duke. UNC is 0-4 this season vs the top tier teams in the conference (UVA, Duke, Miami, and Pitt). Too many points here as even if the Heels are able to pull of this home win, we anticipate a close game. |
|||||||
02-12-23 | Ducks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Anaheim Ducks Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Vegas Golden Knights, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET - Anaheim off a 6-3 ugly home loss to Pittsburgh. Prior to this however, the Ducks had won 4 of 5 and the only loss was in the shootout so no losses by more than 1 goal in last 5 games before getting hammered by Penguins. Look for Anaheim to respond here and they catch Vegas at the right time. The Golden Knights off B2B wins by big 5 to 1 margins. Those wins included the most recent one at Minnesota as they scored 5 goals against former Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. Coming off B2B big-margin road wins including one like that against their former netminder, this Vegas team could be a little flat on Sunday afternoon. The Ducks fully prepared to take advantage coming off that ugly loss. An upset would not surprise us in the least but we we want the added value of the +1.5 goals here in case the Ducks lose by 1 goal. Added benefit as that puck line is available at plus money so this is a rare "plus plus" situation. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with the road dog Anaheim is the value play here. |
|||||||
02-12-23 | Grizzlies +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 1 PM ET - We like the Grizzlies plus the points in this NBA showdown. Boston is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA but Memphis is a team that can certainly come out of the West. The Grizzlies have had some ups and downs with players missing with injuries but have put together two strong games in a row beating Chicago and Minnesota. Going into the trade deadline there were rumors the Grizzlies were active, but now that everyone knows they are staying in Memphis they can relax and play. The Celtics are dealing with a few key injuries to starters Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart, which is significant when you’re trying to stop Ja Morant. Memphis and Boston rank 2nd and 5th in defensive efficiency so they are essentially even. Boston has a much better overall offensive efficiency but Memphis can get some easy opportunities with their transition game which is the 3rd best in the league. Boston is also reliant on their 3-points shooting but the Grizzlies are solid in defending the arc. The line on this game is set this low for a reason and looks like a trap. Bet Memphis plus the points. |
|||||||
02-11-23 | Pacers +5 v. Wizards | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +5 at Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - One negative here is scheduling as the Pacers just played last night at home versus the Suns and lost. But, Indiana is 7-4 SU this season when playing without rest this season and they kept all of the starters minutes to under 30. Washington beat Charlotte at home as a -3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. If the Wizards were just favored by -3.5 versus Charlotte, why are they -5 versus a better Indiana team? Washington is 13-12 SU at home this season with an average point differential of -0.7PPG which is 26th in the NBA. As a home favorite, Washington is 5-8-1 ATS, minus -0.4PPG. Indiana is a respectable 17-14 ATS when coming off a loss this season, 3-1 in their last four. Our model has Washington favored by -2.5 points here so let’s grab the value with Indiana |
|||||||
02-11-23 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -5.5 | Top | 64-56 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -5.5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - The Cyclones have been night and day when it comes to home vs away games in conference play this season. Overall for the season ISU is 12-0 SU at home and just 2-6 on the road. In Big 12 play they are 5-0 at home and 2-5 on the road. We’re catching them in a great spot as well coming off a road loss @ West Virginia on Wednesday night (we were on WVU). This line is short in our opinion because it looks like Oklahoma State is on a great roll winning 6 of their last 7 games. However, 5 of those 7 games have been at home and their 1 road win during that stretch was vs a free falling Oklahoma team that has lost 6 straight conference games and is only 2-9 in Big 12 play. The fact is, OSU has lost every other Big 12 road game (1-4 SU on the road) besides their win at Oklahoma. Iowa State has been dominant at home as we mentioned. Of their 12 home wins, 11 have come by double digits. Many of those wins coming vs top tier Big 12 teams as they beat Kansas by 15, Baylor by 15, and Texas by 11, all better teams than Oklahoma State. They are averaging 75 PPG at home while their defense has been stifling at Hilton Coliseum allowing just 53 PPG on 38% shooting and 28% from beyond the arc. We anticipate the OSU offense, who averages just 0.96 points per possession in Big 12 play (8th) to have all kinds of problems scoring in this one. When these 2 met in late January in Stillwater, the Cowboys made 7 more three pointers and 9 more FT’s in the game yet only won by 2 points. That’s a 30 point edge from beyond the arc + FT’s made and ISU still had a shot to win the game. In fact, ISU led for much of that game with their largest lead being 16 points while OSU largest lead at home in that game was just 3 points. Despite these 2 teams having similar Big 12 records (ISU 7-4 / OSU 6-5) the Cyclones have been the superior team by a decent margin in conference play. Iowa State is +10 points per 100 possessions (efficiency margin) in league play while Oklahoma State is dead even in that statistic. In fact, ISU leads the Big 12 in efficiency margin which tells us they are better than their 7-4 conference record. The Cowboys are 8th in the conference in that stat telling us they aren’t as good as their 6-5 record. The Cowboys are also missing a key piece to their lineup with Avery Anderson (11 PPG / 3.5 rebounds / 3.5 assists) most likely out here and contributed 18 points in the first meeting with ISU. We expect the Cyclones to win this one by double digits. |
|||||||
02-11-23 | Connecticut v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 53-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
#662 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -4.5 over UConn, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The Jays are on quite a roll right now winning 10 of their last 12 games since their 7’1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner (15 PPG & 7 RPG) returned to the line up after missing 3 games in mid December (all losses). Their only 2 setbacks during this impressive run were @ Xavier by 3 and @ UConn by 9. They’ve been waiting patiently for this rematch. The Huskies have done pretty much the opposite starting the season very well but falling off as of late. They won their first 14 games of the season, but since that UConn is 5-6 over their last 11 games. The Huskies are just 3-4 on the road in Big East play and their 3 wins away from home have come vs Georgetown, DePaul, and Butler, the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. In fact, those are the only 3 Big East teams that are not ranked inside the top 100 per KenPom. In the first meeting a few weeks ago, a 69-60 UConn win, the stats were pretty even across the board with the one different being UConn made 8 three pointers (33% from deep) while Creighton made only 2 of 16 for 12%. That was an 18 point difference from beyond the arc in favor of the Huskies in that game. We expect those numbers from beyond the arc to be in favor of the Jays in this one as they shoot 36% from deep at home and make an average of 9.5 triples per game. They are 7-0 at home in Big East play this season (32-6 here their last 38 Big East games) and 5 of those wins have come by double digits. The Blue Jays average margin of victory at home in conference play this season is +16.5 PPG. We also expect them to have a big advantage at the FT line here. In the meeting @ UConn it was dead even (UConn 19 made FT’s to 18 for Creighton). The Huskies foul more than any other team in the Big East allowing 24% of their opponents points (conference games) to come from the stripe. Creighton fouls the least of any team in the league with only 14% of opponents points coming from the FT line. If we look at their Big East stats only (similar strength of schedule), Creighton is outscoring their opponents by +15 points per 100 possessions compared to UConn’s +7 points per 100 possessions. These 2 have faced each other only 6 times with Creighton winning 5 including 2-0 at home. Lay the small number with the Blue Jays on Saturday. |
|||||||
02-10-23 | Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -2.5 | Top | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
#890 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State -2.5 over Northern Kentucky, Friday at 9 PM ET - Wright State struggled early in the Horizon League season but they’ve hit their stride winning 4 of their last 5 games. Their lone loss during that stretch was by 2 points in OT on the road vs the top team in the conference, Youngstown State. The Raiders are now 8-7 in conference play taking on the 10-4 Northern Kentucky Norse who are overvalued in our opinion. The Norse have played 14 conference games with 9 of those coming at home. They have 3 road wins, however those have come vs the 3 worst teams in the Horizon League – UW Green Bay (ranked 361 per KenPom out of 363 teams), IUPUI (ranked 360) and Robert Morris (ranked 267). Those three teams have a combined record of 18-58 on the season so far from impressive road wins for NKU. This will be their 3rd straight road game which is far from ideal. While Northern is very solid defensively, the really struggle on the offensive end. They rank outside the top 250 in scoring, FG%, and 3 point %. They also make only 67% of their FT’s on the season. Wright State is very good offensively ranking 4th in the nation hitting over 50% of their shots on the season while averaging 81 PPG. At home that number jumps to 86 PPG while Northern KY only puts up 60 PPG on the road. We’re not sure NKU can keep up here and we’re laying a short number with Wright State. The Norse have a spread record of 7-16 (354th nationally) on the season while Wright has been a money maker as of late covering 5 straight. This is also a revenger after WSU lost at NKU earlier in the season. Take the Raiders at home on Friday Night. |
|||||||
02-10-23 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 107-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10PM ET - These two teams don’t like each other after a very intense playoff series a year ago. This will be the 4th and final meeting of the regular season with the home team having won and covered the three previous clashes. The last confrontation was recently in late January in Minnesota with the Wolves winning by 11-points. Memphis made a quiet move at the trade deadline but did bring in shooter Luke Kennard. Minnesota dumped De’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt and brought in vet Mike Connelly and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. For our purposes we doubt any of these players will be in the lineups tonight. Memphis had lost 3 straight games prior to beating Chicago by 15-points at home in their most recent game. Minnesota is coming off a 143-118 win at Utah, but prior to that game gave up 146 in a loss to the Nuggets. The Grizzlies have the 2nd best +/- at home this season of +10.1PPG and an overall record of 22-5 SU. Dating back to the start of last season the Grizz are 47-26-1 ATS at home (best record in the NBA) with an average Margin of Victory of +9.6PPG. As a road dog the Wolves are an mediocre 37-35 ATS since the start of the 2021 season. Playing with quick revenge we like the Grizzlies big at home tonight. |
|||||||
02-09-23 | UAB +3 v. North Texas | Top | 79-82 | Push | 0 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
#775 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB +3 over North Texas, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We really like this UNT team, however we’re catching a very undervalued UAB getting points and we can’t pass that up. UAB is finally back at full strength with Jelly Walker back in the lineup after missing 5 straight games from mid January to early February. Walker is the Blazers leading scoring at 22 PPG and makes nearly 40% of this 3’s along with 85% of his FT’s. He’s been back for 2 games and UAB won both including topping the best team in the conference, FAU who is 22-2 on the season, by 9 points last Thursday night. These 2 met in late January and UAB was a 3 point favorite at home in that game despite Walker not playing. UNT pulled the upset shooting 48% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc, both well above their season averages. The fact is the Mean Green are not a great shooting team despite that effort @ UAB. They rank 349th nationally averaging just 62 PPG and outside the top 300 making only 41% of their shots on the season. They are also the slowest paced team in the nation and those 2 things combined make it tough for them to win games by a large margin. UNT is 19-5 on the season yet their average margin of victory is just +7 PPG. They have played 4 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100 and lost 3 of those with their only win coming vs this undermanned UAB team who is now full strength. The 3 best teams in CUSA are FAU, UNT, and UAB. When the Blazers had Walker on the court they beat FAU handily at home as we mentioned and lost by just 2 points on the road. North Texas lost both of their games vs FAU this season. The Green have already lost 2 home games in conference play and 2 of their 4 home wins in the league have come by 4 points or fewer. The road team has won 9 in a row outright in this series & the dog has covered 5 straight. We think UAB has a great shot at the upset here and we’ll grab the points. |
|||||||
02-08-23 | San Diego State v. Utah State -1 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State -1 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Huge game in the Mountain West with San Diego State sitting in 1st place at 9-2 sitting one game head of Boise State, Nevada, and this Utah State team who are all 8-3. This is a quick revenge spot for USU at home after losing 75-65 @ San Diego State on January 25th. The Aztecs hit 48% of their shots in that game and from beyond the arc they were red hot making 55% of their triples which is 20+% higher than their season average of 34%. The host also made 11 more FT’s in the game. We expect Utah State to have the better shooting percentages in this game at home. USU is the #1 three point shooting team in the nation hitting just under 41% and they are also have the 5th best eFG% in the country. The Aggies are 11-1 at home this season and in their one home loss they blew an 18 point lead. At home they are shooting 50% overall and 45% from beyond the arc which averaging 83 PPG. San Diego St has a respectable 6-4 record away from home (away & neutral) but their MWC road tilts have mainly been vs the lower half of the conference. There are 5 teams ranked inside the top 80 per KenPom in the Mountain West (including both of these teams) and the Aztecs have faced one of those teams on the road this season. That was a 9 point loss vs Nevada last Tuesday. USU is a tough place to play as they are 34-7 here in conference play since the start of the 2019 season. With the number set where it is (opened USU -1) we basically just need a win from them to get a cover. Home team is 16-4-1 ATS the last 21 meetings in this MWC rivalry and another home cover is on the way tonight. |
|||||||
02-07-23 | Nevada v. New Mexico -4 | Top | 77-76 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
#654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -4 over Nevada, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - Love this spot for the Lobos. They are off a loss on Saturday @ Utah State and now back at home where they are 14-1 on the season. They’ve been fantastic at the Pit averaging 85 PPG with a +15 PPG margin while shooting just under 50% on the season. This is also a quick revenge spot for New Mexico as they just lost @ Nevada 97-94 in double OT on January 23rd. The Wolfpack have won 3 of their last 4 games but all of those wins have come at home. Now they go on the road where they’ve lost 3 straight and have a losing record on the season. Nevada’s drop offs on the road are fairly dramatic. They average 78 PPG at home and just 66 PPG on the road. They shoot barely 40% from the field on the road and make only 30% of their triples. All of their road losses have come by at least 6 points and the average PPG margin of their 6 road setbacks is -10.6. All but 2 of New Mexico’s 14 home wins have come by at least 8 points and they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this revenge game. We’ll lay the small number with New Mexico at home. |
|||||||
02-07-23 | Maryland v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State -3.5 over Maryland, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Terps are on a nice roll winning 5 of their last 6 but they are now officially overvalued as well. 4 of their 5 wins during that stretch have come at home and their lone road win was @ Minnesota, the worst team in the Big 10. The Terps only other road win this season was @ Louisville so they’ve beaten the worst team in the ACC and the worst team in the Big 10 on the road and that’s it. They already have 5 conference losses away from home and those have come by an average of 14 PPG. Now they face a motivated MSU team that is coming off a loss vs Rutgers in Madison Square Garden on Saturday. Sparty is actually coming off back to back losses as they lost at Purdue prior to the Rutgers setback. That dropped them to 6-6 in the conference which is 1 game behind Maryland. This is a must win home spot here with 2 of their next 3 games on the road. Just looking at Sparty’s recent stretch may have you thinking they are in a slump losing 5 of their last 7 games. However, 4 of those 5 losses have come on the road and their only home loss during that stretch was by 1 point to Purdue, the #1 team in the nation. MSU’s PPG margin at home is +10 on the season and they have been outstanding defensively giving up just 59 PPG on 38% shooting. That’ll be a problem for a Maryland team that is averaging only 62 PPG on the road. Lay it with the Spartans at home on Tuesday. |
|||||||
02-06-23 | Bucks v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-108 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:10 PM ET - The Bucks are playing well right now having won 9 of their last ten games but 7 of those were at home. Now they go on the road where they are 10-12-3 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.2PPG. Portland is returning home after going 2-1 on their road trip with the most recent game being a loss. The Blazers are a profitable 14-11 ATS at home this season with a +4.5PPG average Margin of Victory. In the lone meeting earlier this season the Blazers lost by 8-points in Milwaukee but were without Dame Lilliard. We get a good team, off a loss and as a home underdog. Back the Blazers! |
|||||||
02-06-23 | Duke v. Miami-FL -3.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 0 m | Show |
#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -3.5 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET - What a great spot to fade the Dukies on the road vs a very good team. The Blue Devils are off a huge 63-57 home in over arch rival UNC on Saturday. It was a tight game throughout with neither team ever leading by more than 7 points. UNC took more shots but only made 34.9%, made more 3 pointers, and had fewer turnovers. The difference was Duke went to the FT line 15 times making 11 of them while the Heels were 2 of 3 from the stripe for the entire game. Only 3 FT attempts. Now on a short turnaround after that emotional game, Duke takes the road where they simply haven’t been very good this season. They have a 2-4 record in ACC play away from home with their only wins coming @ BC and @ Georgia Tech, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. Their road losses in league play have come at the hands of Wake, Va Tech, Clemson and NC State by an average margin of -11.5 PPG. These 2 met on January 21st at Cameron Indoor Stadium and the Devils barely snuck by with a 68-66 win. Now the Canes get their shot at quick revenge at home where they are a perfect 12-0 this season winning by an average of +12 PPG. The fact is the Canes have been the better team in ACC play with a points per possession differential of +10 per 100 possessions compared to Duke’s +6 per 100 possessions. Miami is the #1 offensive team in the ACC in adjusted efficiency and they foul the least of any team in the league so we won’t see the Devils with a big FT disparity as we saw on Saturday at home vs the Tar Heels. Miami has been waiting for this one since their loss a few weeks ago + they didn’t get to host Duke last season. The Devils are just 1-7 ATS following their last 8 SU wins and we like Miami to get the cover at home on Monday night. |
|||||||
02-05-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +1.5 | Top | 98-128 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 vs Denver Nuggets, 7:10 PM ET - This is a quick revenger game for the Timberwolves as they recently lost in Denver by 4-points as a +9-point underdog. Earlier in January they did beat the Nuggets at home by 13-points. Minnesota has had decent success in this series with 5 straight covers and a 4-1 SU mark. The Wolves are coming off a home loss to the Magic and have been solid this season when off an “L” with a 9-4 SU record. Denver is in a much tougher scheduling situation here having just played last night versus the Hawks. This will also be the Nuggets 3rd game in four days and 4th in six. Minnesota is in a great spot to get even with the Nuggets after a recent loss in Denver. |
|||||||
02-04-23 | Marshall v. UL - Lafayette -1 | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana -1 over Marshall, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Marshall is 19-5 on the season but they’ve played on of the easiest schedules in college basketball. They have faced a single team ranked inside the top 90 this season and 13 of their opponents are currently ranked outside the top 200. They do have a winning road record at 6-3, however the average rank of the opponents they’ve faced away from home this year is 217th. Now the face a Louisiana team who is a perfect 10-0 at home and ranked inside the top 100. The Ragin Cajuns are in the much better situational spot as well playing their 4th straight home game while Marshall just faced App State (in North Carolina) on Thursday night and now play in Louisiana just 48 hours later. That’s not a great spot for a team that has very little bench (362nd out of 363 in bench minutes) playing 2 games on the road in a short period of time. On top of that they are one of the faster paced teams in the nation which could see them wearing down at this point in the season with a short bench. This will be Marshall’s 5th game in 15 days with one of those games going to OT and another to double OT. We mentioned Louisiana has been perfect at home this season and they have been great offensive in the Cajun Dome where they average 87 PPG on 52% shooting including 44% from beyond the arc. Their average margin of victory this year at home is +20 PPG. They are 9-2 in the Sun Belt (1st place) one game ahead of Marshall and the Cajuns overall record sits at 19-4. These two met for the first time last season and Marshall rolled up a big win 93-79 as a short home favorite. Louisiana has been waiting for this one and they are rested and ready to go after spreading out their minutes on Thursday night in a 19 point home win over Texas State. We love this spot and we’re getting a high level team in a game where all they have to do is win at home to cover (line opened pick-em). Take Louisiana. |
|||||||
02-03-23 | Magic +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Magic continue to be one of the best spread record teams in the NBA at 29-22-1 ATS. They have covered 7 of their last ten games and have a 27-18-1 ATS record as a dog. As an Underdog they have a negative differential of minus -3.3PPG and cover those games by +3.7PPG. Minnesota is 11-16 ATS as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +1.6PPG. As a home chalk the Wolves are 6-10 ATS +1.1PPG. When Orlando has faced a Western Conference team this season, they have covered 68.4% of the time with a 13-6-1 ATS record. When it comes to facing the East the Wolves are 7-11 ATS or 38.9%. The Magic have owned the Timberwolves with a 12-3 ATS record in the last 15 meetings in Minnesota. Grab the points. |
|||||||
02-02-23 | Clippers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 105-106 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET- The Bucks are in a groove right now with five straight wins and 7 victories in their last eight games. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home also with the closest win coming by 8-points to the Nuggets and Raptors. The Bucks were just favored by -12.5 points against the Nuggets and are now laying marginal number against the Clippers. Milwaukee has the 5th best average MOV at home this season at +7.7PPG. The Clippers are also playing well with a 6-1 SU record their last seven games. They are coming off a win in Chicago as a -2.5-point favorite. Recently the Clippers were a +2-point dog at Dallas when both Leonard and George were in the lineup. That tells us the Bucks should be a bigger chalk here. LA is 15-14 SU on the road this season but they do have a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Both teams are getting healthy and playing well right now but at this price we have to back the home team. |
|||||||
02-02-23 | Loyola Marymount v. BYU -4.5 | Top | 61-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU -4.5 over Loyola Marymount, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 just played in early January and Loyola was just a 1 point home favorite. Now we’re getting BYU at -3 at home (opening line) which is solid value in our opinion. Especially with the way the game played out @ Loyola Marymount. The Lions won that game 64-59 and it was tight throughout (tied at halftime) despite Loyola making 5 more three pointers and 10 more FT’s. The Lions went to the FT line 23 times to just 9 for BYU. Both teams shot around 41% for the game so based on that and the advantages Loyola had from the 3 point line and FT line (scored 25 more points in those 2 areas) it should have been a blowout but wasn’t. Now we get BYU at a cheap price at home as they are coming off 3 straight losses. Two of those setbacks were tight games on the road and their most recent loss was at home to the WCC’s top team St Mary’s on Saturday by the final score of 57-56. The Gaels, ranked 7th nationally per KenPom, made a shot with under 1 second remaining to get the win. What made the loss even more impressive is BYU played without 3 key players – one starter and their 2 top reserves and still almost pulled out the win. Those 3 players combine to average 19 PPG and 11 RPG along with eating up an average of 61 minutes per game so they are key contributors. All were suspended for 1 game and are back for this one. BYU has lost 2 home games in conference play this season, both by 1 point to the 2 best teams in the league, Gonzaga & St Mary’s, as we mentioned. LMU is 6-3 in West Coast Conference play but they’ve faced the easiest league schedule thus far. They have a 3-4 record in true road games and they’ve lost 18 of the last 20 meetings vs BYU. The Lions have won only once here in Provo since the 2007 season and that was way back in 2011/12 season. BYU is now 4-5 in WCC play and in must win mode at home where they have been extremely tough to beat over the years (45-8 record over their last 53 home games). Lay the small number with the Cougars at home. |
|||||||
02-01-23 | Abilene Christian v. Seattle University -5.5 | Top | 83-68 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -5.5 over Abilene Christian, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Great spot for Seattle here one of the top teams in the WAC this season. After winning their first 7 games in conference play, Seattle is coming home off back to back road losses @ Sam Houston State (the highest rated team in the conference) and Stephen F Austin (4th highest). ACU is just 3-6 in WAC play and they are coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won 2 games vs Utah Tech and UT Arlington who have a combined 4-14 record in WAC play. The Wildcats are 3-6 in league play despite playing the 2nd easiest schedule in the WAC. Away from home this team has been terrible with a 2-9 record (road & neutral). ACU’s only 2 wins away from home were vs Cal State Bakersfield (ranked 312th per KenPom) and Northern Arizona (ranked 283rd). Those 2 teams have a combined record of 12-31 on the season. Abilene Christian’s other 9 losses away from home have come by an average of 15 PPG. The Wildcats have covered just 2 of those 9 games away from home and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 7 of those 9 games. They won’t have much, if any, success offensively in this game vs a Seattle, the best defensive team in the league and one of the tops in the nation. The Redhawks rank 63rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (#1 in the WAC) and they are allowing just 59 PPG at home this season. Seattle is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and they’ve won 27 of their last 29 home games. The Redhawks return 7 of their top 9 players from last year’s 23-9 team and they have some extra motivation in this one after getting knocked out of the WAC tourney last season losing 78-76 vs this ACU team. Abilene Christian is just 11-11 this season and Seattle will be the 5th highest rated team they’ve faced this year and they are 1-8 SU vs teams ranked inside the top 190 (Seattle is 115th). Seattle gets back on track with an easy home win on Wednesday night. |
|||||||
02-01-23 | Nets +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 96-139 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +8.5 @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The Celtics just faced the Lakers and Knicks at home and were favored by the same number as they are tonight versus a better Nets team. Even without Kevin Durant the Nets rate higher than both of those teams in our power rankings. Boston split with those teams, losing to the Knicks in OT and beating the Lakers in OT. Brooklyn beat both the Lakers and Knicks by 17 and 7-points. *Note the Lakers did rest LeBron and AD against the Nets. Back on Jan 12th the Celtics beat the Nets by 11-points in Brooklyn. The big difference was the Celtics advantage on the boards +17 rebounds. The Celtics own the 3rd best average MOV at home of +8.6PPG, are 4th in offensive efficiency averaging 1.201PPP and 11th in DEFF at 1.116PPP. Brooklyn has the 4th best average point differential on the road at +1.2PPG, 27th in OEFF, but 11th in DEFF. Overall the Nets offensive efficiency has been much better in their last five games at 1.269PPP. When we analyze most recent statistical data from Jan 1st on, the Nets and Celtics have the exact same DEFF at 1.120PPP, but offensively the Nets have a slight edge in OEFF at 1.160 to 1.140. In each teams last ten games the Nets have a better +/- at +4.3PPG compared to Boston’s -4.2PPG. Nets a dog of 5 or more points just 5 times all season 5-0 ATS. Brooklyn on 5-1 ATS streak their last six, Celtics 0-6 ATS streak. |
|||||||
01-30-23 | Baylor v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas -3.5 over Baylor, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re buying low here on Texas and selling high on Baylor. The Bears have won 6 straight games while the Longhorns are coming off a double digit loss @ Tennessee on Saturday. Because of that, we’re getting some decent value here. The Bears have played 3 road games during this 6 game winning streak beating WVU by 5, Texas Tech by 7, and Oklahoma by 2. Those 3 teams currently sit in 8th, 9th, and 10th place in the 10 teams Big 12. Baylor was actually a 1.5 point underdog @ last place Texas Tech (0-8 in the Big 12) and now they are just +3.5 vs a Texas team ranked in the top 10 by KenPom, thus the line value we were speaking about. The Horns are coming off a loss as we mentioned, and they’ve done so 3 times this season bouncing back nicely with wins in all of those games. They are 12-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +18 PPG while shooting nearly 51% from the field. On the road, Baylor has a -4.5 PPG differential while making only 43% of their shots. Overall these teams both rank in the top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, but on the other end of the court Texas has a solid advantage. The Bears rank dead last in the Big 12 (conference play) in adjusted defensive efficiency allowing 1.11 PPP. That will be a problem tonight vs a Texas team that averages 86 PPG at home this season. Texas played Tennessee, the top team in the SEC (#1 ranked nationally per KenPom), on the road Saturday and lost. Baylor played host to Arkansas (3-5 record in the SEC) and won by just 3 despite having huge edge at the FT line (21 made FT’s to 6 for Arkansas). We like the Horns to play with an edge at home tonight after their loss and pick up a win and cover. |
|||||||
01-30-23 | Blues v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 117 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
#62 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Winnipeg Jets Puck Line (-1.5 goals +115) over St Louis Blues, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Both clubs enter this game on losing streaks but there is a big difference between these teams right now. St Louis is banged up with injuries and has been getting blown out on a regular basis. Winnipeg is having a much stronger season under coach Rick Bowness (came over from Dallas before this season) but he just laid into his team after a 4-0 home shutout to the Flyers on Saturday! That was 3rd straight loss for Jets but they have not lost 4 straight games all season long! Also, the Jets have a rock solid goalie in Connor Hellebuyck. Even if David Rittich starts between the pipes that would be fine as he has allowed an average of 2 goals last 2 starts. But Hellebuyck is the expected starter here and he is one of the top goalies in the NHL. Conversely, the Blues have allowed tons of goals as their goaltenders are struggling. Probably it will be Jordan Binnington but whether it is him or Thomas Greiss, both have struggled in recent starts. The Blues have allowed 4 or or more goals in 12 of 18 games. The Jets had given up just 2.3 goals per game last 6 home games before that 4-0 loss to Philadelphia. Coach Bowness got the attention of this team after that loss. To a man, these players have been challenged and they will respond here. Jets on home ice and off a home shutout and this is the final game for these clubs before the All Star break. St Louis is hurting and missing some key guys and other guys banged up. Jets the healthier team and on home ice and they are a big favorite on the money line but priced with value on the puck line. Winnipeg has beaten the Blues five straight times! The two wins this season have both been blowouts! The Jets entered this game with last 7 wins by an average margin of 2.4 goals apiece. St Louis has 24 losses in regulation this season and 23 of the 24 have been by at least a 2-goal margin! Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Winnipeg is the value play here. |
|||||||
01-29-23 | Bengals +2 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 12 m | Show |
#323 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - This line opened low at KC -2 due to the injury to Mahomes. It has since moved to the Bengals as a favorite and now back to KC -1.5 with the anticipation that Mahomes will play. He will, but we can’t imagine he’ll be even close to 100% based on the history of high ankle sprains and time needed to heal. He needs to be at the top of his game for the Chiefs to have a chance here and with his mobility severely limited they just aren’t the same team. Cincinnati has already beaten the Chiefs 3 times in the last 13 months and that was with Mahomes at 100%. Cincy outgained KC by 130 yards combined in those 3 games and QB Burrow has ripped apart this defense in those games with a 72% completion percentage of almost 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s. In their lone meeting this season, the Bengals defense held Mahomes to 16 completions, his lowest of the season. Last week the Bengals dominated both lines of scrimmage vs a team many thought was the best in the NFL. Cincy rolled up 172 yards rushing while holding Buffalo to 63 yards on the ground. Now they face a KC defense that allowed Jacksonville to rush for a whopping 7.6 YPC last weekend. After their 98 yard TD drive right after Mahomes was injured, the Chiefs only gained 153 total yards from that point on with their QB hobbled. Jacksonville gained 260 yards from that point on but had a few key turnovers including a fumble at the KC 3 yard line. The fact it, once Mahomes was far less than 100%, the Jags outplayed the Chiefs and KC was fortunate to win. This week Kansas City plays a better opponent but will almost assuredly be in the same situation offensively with Mahomes hobbled. Cincy, on the other hand, was firing on all cylinders last week offensively and should be able to do the same this week vs a KC defense that is not as good as the Buffalo defense they shredded for 412 yards last weekend. Cincinnati is the 2nd best spread team in the NFL this year with a 13-4-1 ATS mark. KC is the 2nd worst spread team in the league this year with a 5-12-1 ATS record. With both teams at full strength we felt the Bengals had a solid shot at the upset and now with the situation we have, we feel it will be very difficult for Kansas City to win this game. Cincinnati heads back to the Super Bowl. |
|||||||
01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 37 h 22 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We weren’t overly impressed with San Fran last week in their 19-12 win over Dallas. We felt the Cowboys absolutely outplayed the host Niners for the first 3 quarters before running out of gas late in the game. That wasn’t surprising as Dallas was playing their 4th straight week on the road and the overall numbers for those teams aren’t good, especially late in the game. That game was tied 9-9 entering the 4th quarter and Dallas had outgained San Francisco 219 to 147 when the Niners when on their long (and only) TD drive. The point is, they were at home last week playing an opponent in a very bad situational spot and struggled. That same opponent, the Cowboys, finished 2 games behind Philly in the NFC East. QB Purdy finally came back to earth a bit last week (219 yards pass and 0 TD’s) has he finally faced a defense with a pulse. In 5 of his 7 starts leading up to last weekend vs Dallas, he had faced defenses ranked 18th or lower. His 2 career road starts were both tight wins @ Seattle (won by 8) and @ Las Vegas (won in OT). Now he takes a HUGE step up in competition traveling to the east coast for his first ever playoff start facing the 2nd best defense in the NFL the Eagles who are also 1st in the league vs the pass. Philly, similar to the Dallas defense last week, is great at pressuring the QB with a league high 70 sacks this season, 15 more than anyone else in the NFL. We expect Purdy to struggle. Philly is 15-3 on the season but 2 of those losses came when QB Hurts was out with an injury. Thus, with him in the lineup, the Eagles are 15-1 and they dominated the Giants last week 38-7 outgaining NY by nearly 200 yards. They are also rested and healthy after having a bye the previous week. At home this year the Eagles have a winning margin of +11 PPG and a yardage margin of +105 YPG. They were 7-2 ATS in home games with Hurts as their starting QB. San Francisco was just 4-4 ATS on the road this season and they played only 1 road game this season vs a team that ended the year with a winning record, Seattle, and they barely made the cut with a 9-8 regular season record. We have these teams rated very close overall, however we like the home field edge and QB advantage here with Hurts, an MVP candidate, vs Purdy making his first road playoff start and first road start vs a high level team. Getting Philly under a FG at home is value in our opinion. |
|||||||
01-29-23 | Rutgers +4 v. Iowa | Top | 82-93 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
#843 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +4 over Iowa, Sunday at 2 PM ET - This is a revenger for Rutgers after losing at home to Iowa back on January 8th. Rutgers, the 2nd best defensive team in the nation allowing 0.86 PPP, allowed the Hawks to put up 1.12 PPP in that loss. It was not only the worst defensive performance for Rutgers on a PPP allowed basis, it was also the most points they’ve allowed the entire season (76). Iowa was a 5.5 point dog in that game and now we’re getting the better overall team, Rutgers (16th nationally KenPom compared to Iowa at 36th), as a dog here. The Knights are the best defensive team in Big 10 play on a points per possession basis (0.94) and Iowa is the worst defense in conference play allowing 1.09 PPP. The Hawkeyes are also the worst eFG% defense in the Big 10. Rutgers has won 8 of their last 10 games while Iowa is 5-5 during that stretch. The Knights have already proven they can get it done on the road beating Purdue in West Lafayette which is the Boilers only loss this season (20-1 record). The underdog is 9-2-1 last 12 meetings and we expect this one to go to the wire. We’ll take the MUCH better defensive team, getting points, in revenge mode. |
|||||||
01-28-23 | Kansas +3 v. Kentucky | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
#775 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas +3 over Kentucky, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We’re buying Kansas low here as they have lost 3 straight games. To put that in perspective, since the start of the 2001 season, the Jayhawks have had a grand total of three 3 game losing streaks and have not lost 4 in a row during that span. They are getting points in this game from a Kentucky team that has already lost at home to South Carolina, the lowest rated team in the SEC. The Wildcats already have 6 losses (14-6 record) facing the 84th most difficult schedule in the country. KU, on the other hand, is 16-4 on the season facing the #1 most difficult schedule and they were 16-1 prior to this 3 game speed bump. All 3 of those recent losses have come vs top 25 teams per KenPom. The Cats have already lost to 3 teams this year ranked outside the top 40 per Ken Pom (Missouri, South Carolina, and Michigan State) and they are back to being overvalued based on their 4 game winning streak. Three of those wins have come vs Texas A&M, UGA, and Vandy, ranked 6th, 10th, and 12th in the SEC. Their one impressive win in SEC play came over Tennessee and that was a bounce back game after losing at home to South Carolina. These 2 are comparable offensively when it comes to key metrics, but Kansas has a solid edge defensively ranking 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency while the Wildcats rank 57th. The Jayhawks have also faced the much tougher slate of offenses as every team in the Big 12 with the exception of 1 is ranked inside the top 100 in offensive efficiency with half of the teams (5) ranking in the top 30 in that category. Finally this is a revenger for Kansas as well as they were embarrassed at home vs Kentucky last season as 5-point favorites. That Wildcat team, however was far superior to this one, as they ended the season ranked 6th in KenPom while this year’s version is 30th. Take the points as we expect Kansas to win this game outright. |
|||||||
01-28-23 | Illinois v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 61-51 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin +2 over Illinois, Saturday at 2 PM ET - This is a must win home game for the Badgers. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games to drop onto the NCAA bubble. On the other hand, the Illini have won 5 of 6 so this is a buy low – sell high situation with Wisconsin at home getting points. The Badgers losing stretch began on January 7th when they lost by 10 to this Illinois team on the road. They were without their best overall frontcourt player, Tyler Wahl, in that game and he has since returned. The Illini shot 59% from beyond the arc in that game which is well above their 32% mark on the season (237th nationally). Wisconsin, who is the much better 3 point shooting team (56th nationally) only made 28% of their 3’s in that game. During the Illini’s current winning stretch, they’ve played only 2 road games vs the 2 worst teams in the Big 10, winning both @ Minnesota and @ Nebraska. Prior to that they had lost their 2 other conference road games @ Northwestern and @ Maryland. UW was beaten badly @ Maryland on Wednesday night but that was a very tough spot for this team after having to reschedule their previous game vs Northwestern from Saturday to Monday evening due to the Cats Covid issue. They were also missing their top perimeter defender and starting guard Klesmit for both of those games but he has been practicing and it looks like he’ll return so Wisconsin should finally be at full strength. Their only conference home loss was vs Michigan State, a game Wisconsin led late but lost by 4, and that was without Wahl in the lineup. The host really needs this win as they are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games. We’ll call for Wisconsin to get the win at home. |
|||||||
01-27-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
ASA Top Play On 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +7.5 vs. Miami Heat – 8:10 PM ET - The Magic continue to reward their backers with a 14-7 ATS record when getting more than +7.5-points this season. Miami has struggled in the role of a favorite with a 5-10 ATS mark when laying -5 or more points. Overall, the Heat are 9-15-1 ATS at home with a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Orlando is on a perfect 6-0 ATS run when playing on the road against teams with a winning home record greater than .600. Miami could let down here as they are coming off a huge home win over a big rival in the Boston Celtics. Orlando has won 3 of their last four games and 2 straight. Orlando has covered 6 of the last eight in the Florida rivalry and is a live dog here. |
|||||||
01-27-23 | Detroit v. Robert Morris -2.5 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON Robert Morris -2.5 over Detroit, Friday at 7 PM ET - Robert Morris and Detroit are tied in the Horizon League with 4-6 records. RM has played the toughest schedule in the conference with 7 of their 10 games thus far coming on the road. The Colonials haven’t been home since January 9th and they are coming off a 4 game road trip. Their most recent game was last Saturday so they’ve had a week off to rest and prepare for a rare home game. RM’s only conference home loss was vs Cleveland State, one of two teams in the Horizon ranked inside the top 200. Detroit, despite playing an easier schedule (7th in the league) only has 4 wins as well. The Titans have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with their last and that win was vs IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon and one of the worst in the country. These 2 teams just met on January 15th in Detroit and the Titans came away with an 87-75 win. The host Titans shot lights out in that game hitting 53% overall and 59% from beyond the arc. We don’t expect another effort like that tonight on the road where they shoot just 39% on the season. Robert Morris has a huge edge defensively here ranking as the 4th best team in the league in defensive efficiency and #1 in the conference defending inside the arc. Detroit ranks outside the top 300 nationally in almost every key defensive category. While RM has had a week off to get ready for this revenger, Detroit played Saturday & Monday so tonight will be their 3rd game in 7 days. We like Robert Morris as a small home favorite in this one. |
|||||||
01-26-23 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois -5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
#754 ASA TOP PLAY ON Western Illinois -5 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Revenger for WIU here who played their worst conference game this season @ South Dakota which was a 17 point loss. In that first meeting at the end of December WIU made only 39% of their overall shots and just 17% from beyond the arc. That is well below their season averages of 46% and 32% respectively. Since that loss, Western Illinois has played their best ball of the year with a 4-2 record. South Dakota, on the other hand, is 2-3 since that win. The Coyotes are just 4-4 Summit League play despite facing the easiest conference schedule thus far. They are 1-2 on the road in conference play with their only win coming by 2 points @ North Dakota who is the 2nd worst team in the Summit League. South Dakota is just 1-6 SU on the road this season losing by an average of 17 PPG while averaging only 55 PPG. Western Illinois is 9-2 at home on the year winning by an average of 13 PPG while averaging 82 PPG on offense. South Dakota is coming off a 3 game home stand in which they won only 1 game vs Nebraska Omaha, the lowest rated team in the Summit. WIU has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Oral Roberts who is by far the best team in the conference (only top 100 team in the league). South Dakota has scored 62, 61, and 45 points in their 3 conference road games while WIU has topped 70 points in 4 of their 5 home games. We like the revenge angle and we don’t think South Dakota can keep up offensively in this game. Lay the points. |
|||||||
01-25-23 | Raptors v. Kings -3 | Top | 113-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -3 vs Toronto Raptors, 10 PM ET - The Kings are quietly sitting 3rd in the Western Conference at 27-19 and continue to fly under the radar. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is the 6th best average in the NBA. Toronto is 6-15 SU away from home this season with an average Margin of Victory of minus -2.2PPG. The Raptors are 1-3 ATS their last four on the road. You’ll also be surprised to know the Kings have been solid ATS as a favorite this season. When laying less than double-digits the Kings have rewarded backers with a 14-8 ATS record. Sacramento is the #1 rated offensive efficiency team at home this season at 1.227-points per possession, whereas the Raptors rank 15th on the road in OEFF. The Raptors do hold an edge defensively but it’s not as great a difference as the offensive numbers that favor the Kings. Sacramento is 5-1 SU their last six at home and the five wins came by 21.6PPG. We like them here minus the short number. |
|||||||
01-24-23 | Fresno State v. Boise State -10 | Top | 53-63 | Push | 0 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State -10 over Fresno State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the superior team Boise State. The Broncos are coming off an OT loss on Friday night @ New Mexico. Fresno is coming off a win as a home dog beating UNLV on Saturday which gives Boise an extra day to get ready for this one. The Broncos entered Friday’s game @ New Mexico on a 5 game winning streak and they had won 14 of their previous 16 before that loss. At home they’ve been dominant to say the least winning 21 of their last 23 games at Extra Mile Arena. Their PPG margin this season is +12 and at home that jumps to +18 per game. They are averaging 77 PPG at home and we just don’t see Fresno keeping up here. The Bulldogs are one of the lowest scoring teams in the nation averaging only 61 PPG (356th nationally). They don’t make many 3’s (325th in 3 point %) and don’t get the FT line very often. We don’t see them getting into the 60’s in this game vs a Boise State defense that ranks 9th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 20th in eFG% defense. In home games they are allowing just 58 PPG on 39% shooting. Fresno’s 3 road games in Mountain West play have all been losses by 10, 13, and 22 points and Boise State will be the highest rated team they’ve faced so far this season (25th nationally per KenPom). The Bulldogs leading scorer & rebounder, Moore, is in concussion protocol and may not play here. Even if he does, we like Boise to roll up a big win coming off their loss on Friday night. |
|||||||
01-23-23 | New Mexico v. Nevada -3 | Top | 94-97 | Push | 0 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -3 over New Mexico, Monday at 9 PM ET - Nevada is 9-0 at home and their head coach, Steve Alford who was the head man at New Mexico from 2007 – 2013, has never lost to the Lobos since taking over at Nevada (6-0 record). The Wolfpack have had a full week off to rest and prepare for this game while New Mexico is coming off a huge OT win at home vs Boise on Friday night. That was a huge, come from behind win for the Lobos that pushed them into a tie for 2nd place in the MWC with Boise State, Utah State, and this Nevada team. The Wolfpack have played the toughest schedule thus far in league play and the 2nd most difficult overall schedule (29th nationally) of any team in the MWC not named San Diego State. Despite playing that very tough schedule, the Wolfpack have a very good 15-5 record with all of their losses coming vs top 100 teams on the road (or neutral). Their average margin of victory at home this season is +15 PPG and they are holding their opponents to just 62 PPG at Lawler Events Center. If Nevada needs to salt this game away with FT’s late, they are the 8th best FT shooting team in the nation hitting almost 80% as a team. UNM is 2-1 on the road in Mountain West play with an impressive win @ San Diego State with the Aztecs making only 25% of their 3’s and 52% of their FT’s in that loss. Their other 2 conference road games were a loss @ Fresno State who has a 7-11 record and is the 2nd lowest rated team in the league and a 1 point win @ Wyoming who is 6-13 and rated as the worst team in the MWC. Nevada has beaten New Mexico 8 straight times at home with the Lobos last win here coming in 2016. The Wolfpack are 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 home games overall dating back to last year and the favorite in this series has covered 6 of the last 7. Lay it with Nevada. |
|||||||
01-23-23 | Wolves v. Rockets +5.5 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* HOUSTON ROCKETS +5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 1/23 8:10 PM ET - These same two teams just squared off in Minnesota on Saturday with the Wolves winning by 9-points. Minnesota was favored by 8-points at home and are now laying -5.5 on the road which doesn’t equate. Houston played well the other night but 21-turnovers and 14 missed free throws turned out to be the difference. We expect them to play much better at home and also feel it’s highly unlikely Anthony Edwards can produce another 44-point outing as he did Saturday. On the season the Rockets have an average +- at home of minus -4.5PPG while the Wolves road differential is -2.7PPG. As a home dog this season the Rockets have a 9-8-2 ATS record but more importantly their average loss margin is just -3.6PPG which is obviously within tonight’s number. We like the home dog in this situation and will grab whatever points are available. |
|||||||
01-22-23 | Nets v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -7.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 8:40 PM ET - Most times ‘revenge’ doesn’t work in the NBA but it’s certainly a factor in this high-profile showdown. In late December the Warriors visited the Nets in Brooklyn and were drilled 143-113. Golden State sat Curry, Wiggins, Thompson and Green in that game who are all available today. At first glance, this looks like a high number but considering the Nets were just plus +5 at Utah, it makes sense a healthy GST team is -7.5. Golden State has been really good at home this year with a 17-5 SU record and an average plus/minus of +6.7PPG. Brooklyn can boast some solid road numbers, but a big portion of those wins came with Kevin Durant on the floor who is out tonight. We will lay the points with Golden State. |
|||||||
01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -8.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Jags on the road after 2 must win, come from behind home wins the last 2 weeks. To end the regular season Jacksonville played a “win and in” game for the AFC South crown vs Tennessee and trailed in the 4th quarter before coming back to win 20-16. On top of that, the Jaguars were outgained by nearly 100 yards in that game vs a Tennessee offense with 3rd string QB Josh Dobbs under center. Last week we all watched them get down 27-0 and make a furious 2nd half comeback to beat the Chargers 31-30. What do they have left in the physical and emotional tank after those 2 dramatic wins? This team probably shouldn’t even be here at this point and now they must play a road game versus a KC team who is coming off a bye and is completely comfortable in this situation (playoff pressure) while Jacksonville is not. We do have one data point to look closely at as these teams met here in KC back in mid November. The Chiefs were favored by 10 in that game and won 27-17. It was actually a much more dominant performance by KC in that game. They outgained Jacksonville by +2.6 yards per play with KC averaging a massive 7.8 YPP while holding the Jags to 5.2 YPP. On top of that, the Chiefs were -3 turnovers in that game and still able to win by double digits. We expect the Kansas City offense to have their way in this game as they did in the first meeting averaging nearly 8 yards per play as we discussed. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 24th in total defense and 28th in pass defense and that’s facing the EASIEST schedule of offenses this season. Now they face the #1 offense in the NFL with 2 weeks to prepare and a QB Mahomes that is playing at the top of his game. Since Mahomes took over as the starting QB for KC, he has a record of 7-2 in home playoff games with those 7 wins coming by an average of 13.6 PPG. The Jags defense faced 7 teams this season which ended the year ranked in the top 15 in total offense. In those games Jacksonville allowed an average of 28 PPG. KC head coach Andy Reid has a remarkable 29-6 record in games with an added week of rest advantage (63% cover rate in those games) and in his 19 playoff wins, 15 have come by double digits. We like Kansas City to win this game by at least 10 points. |
|||||||
01-21-23 | Belmont v. Bradley -6.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
#696 ASA TOP PLAY ON Bradley -6.5 over Belmont, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Bradley currently sits at 6-3 in the Missouri Valley which is good for 3rd place but they are the best team in the conference by nearly every key metric. They rank #1 in MVC play in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. The Braves are truly one of the top defensive teams in the country this year allowing just 60 PPG (16th nationally) with opponents making only 39% of their shots (24th). This is a huge home game for the Braves who sit one game behind conference newcomer Belmont. The Bruins are tied for 1st place with Southern Illinois at 7-2. They’ve also played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are 2-2 on the road in league play. Their 2 conference road wins came @ Valpo and @ Illinois Chicago, 2 of the 3 worst teams in the MVC. Their other 2 road games ended in an 18 point loss @ Southern Illinois and a 10 point loss @ Illinois State. This is a revenger for Bradley who lost @ Belmont in late December blowing a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes remaining in the game in the 3 point loss. The Braves have been fantastic at home with a 10-0 mark winning by an average score of 82-54! Their closest margin of victory at home this year had been 13 points. They have not lost ATS at home this season with their average cover coming by +15 PPG. The Braves have 7 losses on the season, all on the road, and 5 of them have come vs top 100 teams. By comparison, Belmont has played only 1 top 100 team this entire season, and that was Bradley, a game we discussed earlier. We’ll lay it with Bradley at home in revenge mode facing a Belmont team that has played a light schedule to date. |
|||||||
01-21-23 | Nebraska v. Penn State -8.5 | Top | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -8.5 over Nebraska, Saturday at 2:15 PM ET - PSU has dropped 3 of their last 4 games to fall to 3-4 in Big 10 play. This team is solid and now in must win mode at home vs one of the conference’s worst teams. Nebraska is improved over previous seasons, but they are still ranked as the 2nd worst team in the Big 10 ahead of only Minnesota. The Huskers are coming off a big home upset vs Ohio State and now are on the road where they are 1-3 in league play with their only win coming @ Minnesota (by far the worst team in the Big 10) by 2 points in OT. Nebraska’s other 3 conference road losses have come by margins of 16, 18, and 18 points. PSU is 9-1 at home this year with their only loss coming at the hands of Michigan State. The Nittany Lions 2 home conference wins have come vs Indiana & Iowa, and their 9 home wins have come by an average of 16 PPG. PSU is one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG% and 6th in 3 point FG%. At home they make nearly 50% of their shots and 42% of their 3-pointers. The Lions also turn the ball over just 13% of the time which is #1 nationally limiting opponents extra possessions. With Nebraska averaging only 60 PPG on the road this year, we’re not sure they can keep up with Penn State in a must win spot at home. Lay it. |
|||||||
01-20-23 | Clippers -7 v. Spurs | Top | 131-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS -7 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The most important aspect of handicapping the Spurs is knowing who’s playing and who isn’t. Considering they sat Paul George and Kawhi Leonard last game for load management it’s safe to assume both will play tonight. Neither are on the injury report and the line reflects they’ll be in the lineup. The Clippers are off a bad loss to the Jazz and look to rebound here against a Spurs team off a rare win over the Nets. San Antonio is 2-9 SU their last eleven games and 9-16 SU for the year at home. The Spurs have the 2nd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG. San Antonio is 2nd to last in the league in home defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession. They aren’t much better offensively, ranking 27th in OEFF when at home. Despite having a very depleted roster for most of the season the Clippers still boast the 9th best defensive efficiency allowing just 1.124PPP. The Spurs were recently +6.5 at home versus the Kings and lost by 13. They were +9 on a neutral court versus the Warriors and lost by 31. The betting action on this game clearly shows sharp money on the Clippers and we’ll follow the money! |
|||||||
01-19-23 | Washington State v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
#816 ASA TOP PLAY 10* Utah -3.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The Utes are in desperate need of a win here after losing 3 straight games. Two of those games have come on the road @ UCLA and @ USC. They started the Pac 12 season with 5 straight wins and now sit at 5-3 in league play, still good for 4th place in the conference. WSU, on the other hand, has won 3 straight, so now we have an undervalued home team vs an overvalued road team. Wazzou has played 8 road games this year and lost 7 of those games. The Cougars have struggled big time on offense in their road games this year averaging only 63 PPG on just 38% shooting. WSU also relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 39% of their points on the season coming from beyond the arc (16th most in the nation). The problem here is that Utah is an outstanding defensive team overall (5th nationally in eFG% defense) and the Utes hare fantastic guarding the arc allowing opponents to make only 28% from deep (9th best nationally). The Utes have an average PPG margin of +17 PPG at home this season and they are in a must win spot off 3 straight losses. The host in this Pac 12 series has covered 15 of the last 22 meetings and we expect that to be the case again on Thursday night. We’ll lay the small number with Utah at home on Thursday. |
|||||||
01-18-23 | Hawks +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* ATLANTA HAWKS +3.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Health is a big part of the equation tonight as the Hawks are healthy and the Mavericks are not. Atlanta has been hit hard with injuries for most of the season but now have everyone back including center Clint Capela. The Mavericks are really banged up right now with 3 key role players all out with Kleber, Finney-Smith and Josh Green all sidelined. To make matters worse, several players are playing through nagging injuries and are not 100%. The Hawks have won 3 straight and 4 of their last five games with the lone loss coming against the Bucks. Dallas on the other hand has lost 2 straight and 4 of their last five games. With a healthy roster this Hawks team looks like a play on team in the near future and we will grab the points with them here. |
|||||||
01-18-23 | Duquesne v. St Bonaventure +1.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure +1.5 over Duquesne, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - After a record of 6-24 a season ago, Duquesne has surprised this season with a 13-5 mark. Because of that, they’ve become a bit overvalued and they are laying points on the road here vs St Bonnies. That’s a drastic swing from last season when STB was favored by 14 at home and won by 26 points. While they have improved, this Duquesne team has played only 4 true road games and won only 1 of those games and that was vs an 8-10 St Joes team last Wednesday. The Dukes are getting outscored by 7 PPG on the road and now facing a St Bonnies team that is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 10 PPG. The Bonnies are averaging 72 PPG at home and facing a Dukes defense that isn’t great to say the least ranking 229th in scoring defense, 192nd in FG% defense, and 284th in 3 point FG% defense while allowing 75 PPG on the road. On offense, Duquesne relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 36% of their points coming from deep (36th most nationally). The problem here is, the are facing a Bonnie defense that ranks 16th nationally allowing their opponents to shoot just 29% from deep and even better at home allowing 25%. St Bonnies has dominated this series going 19-3 SU last 22 meetings while winning 14 of the last 15 meetings with Duquesne at home. They are getting points at home here and we’ll take them. |
|||||||
01-17-23 | Texas v. Iowa State -2.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -2.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - We went against Texas on Saturday for our Top Game (we took Texas Tech +8.5) and we cashed easily with the Longhorns winning by 2. Tech actually led for much of the game including a halftime lead of 9 points. Texas was never covering at any point of the game with their largest lead being just 7 points. We mentioned in that analysis we felt the Longhorns are overvalued right now based on their 15-2 record and we’ll stick by that here. The Horns are 4-1 in Big 12 play but it hasn’t been a cakewalk. They’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play yet 3 of their 4 wins have come by 4 points or fewer. They trailed late @ Oklahoma and won by 1 point, trailed by 18 at home vs TCU and rallied for a close win and then as we mentioned they were down much of the game on Saturday and pulled out a 2 point win. Now they go on the road vs a vastly underrated Iowa State team. The Cyclones are playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 right now. Their only conference loss was on Saturday @ #2 ranked Kansas. The Jayhawks, who have lost only 3 home games since the start of the 2019 season, won by 2 and never led by more than 3 points the entire 2nd half. ISU missed a 3 point shot as time expired that would have given them the win. Prior to that loss, the Cyclones faced the Texas Tech team that gave Texas all kinds of problems and beat them 84-50. Their other Big 12 home game was a 17 point win over a very good Baylor team. ISU is 13-3 on the season and they’ve been dominant at home with a 9-0 record winning by an average score of 76-49. All of their home wins have come by double digits. Their defense has been outstanding ranking 5th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 7th in scoring defense allowing 58 PPG, and they are #1 nationally in creating turnovers at a rate of almost 30%. As we mentioned on Saturday, Texas is still dealing with the dismissal of head coach Chris Beard just over a week ago and they have played only 2 true road games all season. We think they get clipped here and ISU gets the home win and cover. |
|||||||
01-16-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky +4.5 | Top | 76-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +4.5 over FAU, Monday at 7 PM ET - FAU just won their biggest game of the season coming from behind to top North Texas on Saturday 66-62. The win moved FAU to 6-0 in CUSA play a full 2 games ahead of UNT in the loss column. The Owls also beat UNT both times already this season giving them a huge leg up in conference play. Now going on the road vs a surging WKY team puts Florida Atlantic in a very dangerous spot. Western KY sits with an 11-6 overall record and has won 3 straight in conference play after starting the league at 0-3. They could easily be right at the top of the conference with FAU & UNT as all 3 of their league losses have come 5 points or less. Florida Atlantic, on the other hand, has played tight games for the most part in CUSA play with 5 of their 6 wins coming by 4 points or fewer. The Owls have played only 2 road games in conference play beating UNT coming back from 9 points down with under 4 minutes remaining in the game and topping FIU in OT. Just one year ago WKY was favored by 4 at home vs FAU and won by 7. Now they are getting 4.5 points (as of this writing) which is nearly a 10 point swing. Too much in our opinion, especially considering the situation. Western KY is averaging 80 PPG at home this season and they’ve beaten the Owls 5 straight times at E.A. Diddle Arena. The last FAU win @ Western Kentucky was back in 2013. Take the points as we think this game is a toss up. |
|||||||
01-15-23 | Thunder v. Nets -5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 6:10 PM ET - The Thunder have put together a really impressive stretch of games recently with wins over the Celtics, Mavs, 76ers and Bulls. That success means they’ll have the Nets full attention on Sunday in Brooklyn. The Nets meanwhile are coming off a bad home loss to the Celtics and will be fully focused on today’s opponent. Brooklyn is 9-4 SU, 5-2 SU at home when coming off a loss this season. The Thunder have a negative point differential on the road this season of -2.8PPG while the Nets have a +/- at home of plus +6.1PPG. Brooklyn is the best shooting team in the NBA overall and the 2nd best 3-point shooting team. Even without KD we like the Nets to get a double-digit home win here. |
|||||||
01-14-23 | 76ers -4 v. Jazz | Top | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -4 @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - The Jazz are coming off a satisfying home win on Friday over the Orlando Magic. The 76ers on the other hand were off last night and are coming off a very disappointing home loss to the Thunder. Utah has won 2 straight games but had lost 7 of their previous eight. Philly is finally getting healthy and we expect a positive trend moving forward with a roster capable of winning the East. The Jazz have a slight advantage offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings but are far worse defensively, ranking 26th in the NBA in DEFF. Philly on the other hand owns the 4th best defensive efficiency ranking in the league. The Sixers should get plenty of easy scoring opportunities as the Jazz are the worst team in the NBA when it comes to points allowed in the paint at 55.5 per game. Embiid who is averaging 33.5PPG should feast on the Jazz in the interior. Scheduling and previous game results make the 76ers the play on team here. |
|||||||
01-14-23 | Coyotes v. Wild -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
ASA Puck Line 8* NHL PLAY ON Minnesota Wild (-1.5 -135) over Arizona Coyotes, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Wild are off a win and this is their only home game between the 9th and the 27th of this month. Minnesota will take advantage of a bad, and now struggling again, Coyotes team and the Wild should roll to a big-margin win here on home ice. Arizona has lost 7 straight games and all defeats by 2 or more goals. The Coyotes again get routed here as they have had road struggles all season long too! Puck line on the home favorite is the play in this one. |
|||||||
01-14-23 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
#791 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Tech enters this game with an 0-4 Big 12 record and this is pretty much a do or die spot for the Red Raiders. They are also coming off their worst performance of the season getting rolled @ Iowa State on Tuesday after playing 3 down to the wire games in conference play prior to that. Tech’s first 3 losses were by 6 points @ TCU (Red Raiders led that game by 13), by 3 points @ Kansas, and in OT vs Oklahoma when 2 of their key players were out. The Raiders have 6 losses on the season, all to teams ranked in the top 30 (Kansas, Ohio St, Creighton, Iowa St, Oklahoma, and TCU) and if we throw out their only terrible performance vs ISU, their average loss was by 6 points. We expect a huge effort after playing terrible in their most previous game. Texas is overvalued right now. They are off a tight 4 point win at home vs TCU, a game in which the Frogs led 40-22 and blew it. The Horns lost by 13 at home to KSU and their other 2 Big 12 wins were by 1 point vs Oklahoma and by 10 vs Oklahoma State in a game Texas actually trailed with 6 minutes left. The Horns are still figuring things out after their head coach Chris Beard was fired last week. Not an ideal situation. The Red Raiders are an ideal team to cover as a large dog because they play very good defense (36th in adjusted efficiency), they are a good shooting team (22nd in eFG%) and they get to the foul line a lot with 20% of their points coming from the stripe (74th most nationally). Texas Tech has actually won 4 of the last 5 in this series and the Horns lone win during that stretch was by 1 point. The Red Raiders were +4 here last year and won outright now we’re getting nearly double digits in a must win spot. Take the points. |
|||||||
01-14-23 | Providence v. Creighton -6.5 | Top | 67-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
#650 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -6.5 over Providence, Saturday at 2 PM ET - We’re selling Providence high right now. We don’t think they are as good as their 14-3 overall record, 6-0 in the Big East. There is a reason that Creighton, who is 9-8 overall and 3-3 in the Big East, is the favorite here and not a light one for that matter. The Friars lost all 5 starters from last year’s team and were thought to be a middle of the pack at best Big East team this season. They’ve overachieved to say the least. Creighton is the opposite. They returned many of their key players from a team that beat San Diego State in the Big Dance and then nearly knocked off eventually National Champion Kansas. The Jays were picked by many as the best team in the Big East this season. They’ve underachieved however some of that had to do with injuries. Their starting center Kalkbrenner, who leads Creighton in scoring & rebounding, missed 3 games due to illness and they lost all of those games. They’ve also played the 3rd most difficult schedule in the nation thus far so they are more than prepared for Big East play moving forward. The Friars score over 23% of their points from the FT line which is 13th most nationally. They’ve made 65 more FT’s than their opponents in their 6 league games thus far and when half of their conference games have been decided by 4 points or less or in OT, that make a gigantic difference. Problem for them here is, they are on the road so most likely won’t get favorable calls, and Creighton fouls at the 4th lowest rate in the country with only 12% of their opponents points coming from the FT line. The Blue Jays have a +19 PPG margin at home this season and they are shooting around 49% here. They are in a must win spot at home as they cannot afford to fall further behind. Now at full strength we like Creighton to win and cover this one. |
|||||||
01-13-23 | Magic +6 v. Jazz | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +6 @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - With a win tonight Orlando can guarantee themselves a winning road trip on this 5-game West Coast jaunt. They already have impressive wins at Golden State and Portland as underdogs. The Jazz have cooled off since their hot start and are on a 2-7 streak in their last nine games. Utah is 13-7 SU on the season at home with a +4.7-point differential. As a favorite though the Jazz are just 8-11 SU, 6-13 ATS with a +/- of +2.1PPG. The Magic have been a profitable "play on" team as a pooch this season with a 21-15-1 ATS record and their net differential is -3.4PPG. Orlando has done well against the West this season with a 10-6-1 ATS record. Against the East, the Jazz are 5-9 ATS. We will back Orlando here and wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game outright. |
|||||||
01-13-23 | Jets +1.5 v. Penguins | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Winnipeg Jets Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Pittsburgh Penguins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - Jets are in a back to back spot here but coming off a 4-2 win that was their 6th in last 7 games. Winnipeg had Hellebuyck in goal last night so it will likely be Rittich here. The Jets have won 6 of his last 9 starts and he has allowed 3 or less goals in 7 of those 9 starts. In fact Rittich allowed an average of only 2 goals in those 7 starts and the Jets are a better team defensively this season compared to in the past. The Penguins are an over-priced home favorite here. Pittsburgh has lost 7 of 10 games and of those past 10 games only 1 was a Penguins victory by more than a 1 goal margin. This is also a revenge game for the Jets since Pittsburgh won at Winnipeg 3-0 earlier this season. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with the road dog Winnipeg is the value play here. |
|||||||
01-13-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -12.5 | Top | 67-104 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
#880 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron -12.5 over Eastern Michigan, Friday at 7 PM ET - Total mismatch here. EMU is one of the worst teams in the nation (ranked 318th by KenPom) and defensively they cannot stop anyone. The Eagles are allowing 80 PPG (357th out of 363 teams) and their opponents are making 49% of their shots vs this sieve of a defense (358th). That will be an issue in this game vs an Akron team that is a perfect 8-0 and averaging 78 PPG at home this season. The Zips are 10-6 on the year, after finishing 24-10 last season and losing a close game to UCLA in the NCAA tourney. Five of their six losses have come vs top 100 teams which is understandable. This will be the 4th game this season where Akron has faced a team ranked outside the top 300 and their margins of victory in those games were 13, 25, and 32 points. EMU is 4-12 on the season and all 4 of their wins have ranked outside the top 210. Akron will be the 2nd highest rated team EMU has faced since November 15th when they were creamed by Bradley 89-61. The only other top 200 team they’ve faced since then was Florida Atlantic and the Eagles lost that game by 28 points. The Zips play very solid defense (106th in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they allow just 57 PPG at home this season. EMU is not a very good shooting team and they rely on getting points at the FT line with 21% of their points coming from the stripe. Problem is, Akron fouls very infrequently. The Zips have won 34 of their last 38 home games and they’ve won 9 in a row here vs EMU. Lay it. |
|||||||
01-12-23 | Gonzaga v. BYU +7 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU +7 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - The Zags continue to be overvalued in the market based on past perception. This team is nowhere near the level they were over the last few seasons. Because of that false perception, the oddsmakers have been off on this team and they have a terrible 4-12 ATS record. They’ve played 3 true road games this year and haven’t covered any of those – 0-3 ATS losing to the spread by an average of 9.5 PPG. This is not an ideal spot for Gonzaga as they’ll be playing their 3rd consecutive road game in the span of a week. They won their first 2 in this 3 game trip beating San Francisco by 2 points and Santa Clara by 5 points (both non-covers). The were quite lucky to come away with wins in those team games as they trailed by 12 @ SF and by 14 @ Santa Clara while their largest leads in those 2 games were 3 & 6 points respectively. We think their luck runs out here. BYU struggled early in the season with a 5-5 record after 10 games but they’ve since hit their stride winning 8 of their last 9 games. Defensively BYU has been very good ranking 27th in the nation in adjusted efficiency and at home they are allowing only 63 PPG on 40% shooting. The Zags have fallen way off on the defensive end this year after ranking in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency in 5 of the previous 6 seasons. This year they rank 280th in PPG allowed and 240th in FG% allowed. The Cougars have a 13-6 record but it could be much better as 5 of their 6 losses have come by 7 points or less. They also have one of the best home court advantages in college basketball having won 45 of their last 51 here at the Marriott Center. Our numbers have this game going to the wire so we’ll take the generous points. |
|||||||
01-12-23 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Chicago Blackhawks, Thursday at 8:35 PM ET - No matter the goalies who start here we like Colorado strongly in this spot. However, we will note that Petr Mrazek is the expected starter for the Blackhawks. He is 2-10-1 with a 4.19 GAA this season! As for the Avalanche, Pavel Francouz is back and healthy and served as the back-up Tuesday and is likely to start here. He has allowed 2 or less goals in 5 of his last 7 starts. Even if Colorado does start Alexandar Georgiev here, he was showing signs of turning things around before his most recent start. In the 3 starts before that rough one he had allowed 3 or less goals in 3 straight starts. The key here is the team on team situation. Yes, the Blackhawks are off B2B wins but they lost 25 of 29 games prior to this 2-game winning streak. Also the win streak features a win over a bad Coyotes team and a win in overtime against a Flames team that fired 47 shots on goal and had a heavy shot edge. The point is we are not impressed. The Avalanche beat the Blackhawks 5-2 earlier this season. Though the Avs have endured some tough sledding on the ice recently, they are still the vastly superior team in this match-up and this is the perfect "get right" game against an outclassed opponent. Chicago just will not be able to keep up here. The Blackhawks are averaging only 1.8 goals scored per game over the last 30 games! Colorado averages 3 goals per game and this is still a team capable of "pouring it on" against weaker foes. This one should end similarly to their 5-2 meeting earlier this season as Avalanche are angry about rallying to tie their most recent game only to allow a late power play goal in the eventual loss. That said, this Avs team is ready to roll tonight. Road team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with the road favorite Colorado is the value play here. |
|||||||
01-10-23 | Illinois v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 76-50 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
#654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Nebraska continues to be undervalued in our opinion, especially at home. This team has vastly improved over last season as they currently rank 85th in the KenPom ratings after finishing last season ranked 140th. The Huskers are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming by 3 points in OT vs Purdue, the highest ranked team in the conference (6th on KenPom). Illinois has been trending down for a month now. After winning 6 of their first 7 games, the Illini have gone 4-4 over their last 8. They’ve played 2 true road games this season and lost both @ Maryland by 5 and @ Northwestern by 13. They are coming off a nice win at home over Wisconsin on Saturday but that came with a few asterisks. The Badgers were forced to play without their top player, Tyler Wahl, who is recovering from an ankle injury. On top of that, the Illini shot WAY above their season averages in that game making 10 of their 19 three point attempts (53%) when they entered the game making only 32% of their 3’s on the season. Wisconsin was also called for 21 personal fouls leading to +14 points at the FT line for Illinois. In their most recent home game Nebraska was a 4 point dog vs Iowa and won by 16 and their vastly improved defense (44th in adjusted efficiency) held the potent Iowa attack to just 50 points. Now they face an Illinois team that has averaged only 63 PPG on the road, 14 fewer than their season average. The host in this Big 10 series have covered 6 of the last 7 and we give the Huskers a great shot to pull the upset here. Grab the points. |
|||||||
01-10-23 | Hornets +8 v. Raptors | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Hornets here as this number is higher than it should be. The Hornets just played a hot Pacers team that has won 8 of their last ten games and were +5.5-points there. The game before that they were a +10-point dog in Milwaukee and won outright. Charlotte has bad overall numbers on the road this season but recently they lost to Indiana by 5, beat the Bucks, lost to the Warriors by 5, -11 at Portland and beat the Lakers. Historically, the Raptors have enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage but this season they have been slightly above average at 12-10 SU. They have a +1.7PPG +/- at home which is 20th in the NBA. They are hovering around league average in offensive efficiency at home and near the bottom of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both teams have struggled with their shooting for the season but in their last five games the Raptors are hitting below season numbers in both overall FG% and 3PT%. In fact, those percentages are brutally bad as Toronto is shooting 42% from the field and 30.9% from beyond the Arc in their last five games. Charlotte has covered 18 of the last 26 as the visitor in this series. Grab the inflated points. |
|||||||
01-09-23 | Magic v. Kings -6 | Top | 111-136 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -6 vs Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - These two teams are coming off opposite results which makes the Kings the play on team here and the Magic the play against. Orlando is off a big road win over the Warriors as a +6.5-point underdog. They face a hungry Kings team that is off a bitter 2-point loss to the Lakers. Sacramento has a +/- at home of +3.3PPG and stand 11-9 SU on the season on their home court. Orlando has the 25th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG and is 5-13 away from home. The Kings have lost 2 straight at home and will be up for this game against a young Magic team. Orlando is an exciting team in the league but playing at a consistent level is always difficult for a young roster. Bet the Kings here. |
|||||||
01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | Top | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -12.5 over TCU, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Georgia has been the best team in the country all season long and we like them to win by at least 2 TD’s in this game. The Bulldogs came from 2 TD’s down last week to beat Ohio State, however UGA dominated the stats outgaining the Buckeyes by almost a full 2.0 YPP. The UGA offense gained 533 yards on just 60 offensive snaps for an average of 8.9 YPP! They were only forced to punt twice in their 12 possessions, missed 2 FG’s, and threw an interception that led to a short OSU TD drive. We don’t see any reason they won’t move up and down the field on a TCU defense that allowed Michigan to gain 7.0 YPP last week and was rated lower than the Buckeyes defense. The Frogs were fortunate in the semi finals to say the least. They barely won a game where they had 2 pick 6’s and the Wolverines were held at the TCU 2 yard line (no points) and fumbled at the TCU 1 yard line (no points). In that situation, the Frogs should have cruised to a win but the game went to the wire. Their success on offense was on the ground averaging over 6 YPC with QB Duggan completing less than 50% of his passes. We don’t think that’ll happen here vs Georgia who ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing 77 YPG on only 3.0 YPC. UGA has a big edge defensively allowing almost 100 YPG fewer than TCU and their offense just put up nearly 9 YPP on a team that has a better defense than the Frogs as we discussed above. Surprisingly, 5 of the 8 National Championship games have been decided by double digits. The last 4 were all blowouts with an average margin of 22 points. We see another potential lopsided score here and we’ll lay it as long as it’s under 2 TD’s. |
|||||||
01-08-23 | Maple Leafs v. Flyers +1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Toronto Maple Leafs, Sunsday at 7 PM ET - Toronto is the better team of course but this is a bad spot for the Maple Leafs and yet they are laying a 2 to 1 price on the money line here and so the price on the puck line to have dog Philadelphia here is very reasonable. The Leafs are off huge 4-1 win last night but that was just 3rd Toronto win by a multiple-goal margin in their last 10 games overall. The Flyers are heating up and have won 4 straight games plus 5 of last 6 defeats have been by just a single goal. The fact is Philadelphia has only 3 multi-goal losses in last 16 games! Considering that plus the situational factor here with Maple Leafs in a back to back and rested Philly starting Carter Hart in goal in this one, the set-up here is perfect for a tight game. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with home dog Philadelphia is the value play here. |
|||||||
01-08-23 | Patriots +7.5 v. Bills | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
#477 ASA PLAY ON 10* New England Patriots +7.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are writing this up on Friday and the line is +7 at most places. We would suggest you play this one now as we wouldn’t be surprised if this line dips below a TD on Sunday depending on what happens on Saturday. With the cancellation of the Buffalo – Cincinnati game, if KC wins here they have the #1 seed. In that case, the Bills may actually rest some players to get ready for the playoffs which would send this line down. New England needs to win to make the playoffs. Win and they’re in. Preparation wise, the Patriots have a big advantage here. They’ve been getting ready for this game with one of the best prep coaches of all time, Bill Belichick, while Buffalo’s week has been thrown into chaos after the Damar Hamlin incident on Monday night. The Bills have been doing walk throughs only this week and some of their players stayed in Cincinnati this week to be with Hamlin which is completely understandable. The Bills are already in the playoffs obviously and we can’t imagine what their mind set might be for this game. The road team in this AFC East rivalry has been money with a 20-7-2 ATS record the last 29 meetings. We’re not enamored with the way the Pats are playing right now, but getting a TD in this situation with one of the better defenses in the NFL (allowing 5 YPP – 4th in the NFL) is the way we’ll go. |
|||||||
01-07-23 | Magic v. Warriors -6 | Top | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -6 vs Orlando Magic, 8:30 PM ET - We like how this young Magic team is starting to come together but this isn’t a great spot for them and the price is right to play against them. Consider this: The Magic were just +6.5-points at home against Memphis and are not catching that same number in Golden State. Let’s face it, the Warriors aren’t the team they were a year ago with injuries taking a toll, but they are still 17-3 SU at home with a +/- of +8.7PPG. That differential is the 4th best average in the NBA. Orlando is 4-13 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 25th worst. Golden State lost at home to Detroit which makes them a ‘play on’ here. The Warriors are 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS this season at home when off a loss. Orlando doesn’t bounce back like the Warriors do, the Magic are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS when on the road coming off a beat. Orlando beat Golden State by 1-point at home earlier in the season which makes this a payback game for Golden State. Lay the points |
|||||||
01-07-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders +9.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
#466 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - While the Chiefs are winning, they are vastly underperforming when it comes to the point spread. They are 4-11-1 ATS on the season and over their last 9 games KC is 1-7-1 ATS. They are tied with Tampa for the worst ATS record in the NFL this season. If we throw out their week one domination of what we have found out is a bad Arizona team, KC has a PPG margin of just +5.7 over their last 15 games. Over their last 10 games when they were fighting for the AFC West crown and pushing for the #1 seed, they haven’t been all that impressive even vs lower tier teams. During that stretch they won @ Houston in OT, beat Denver by 6 & 3 points, and beat a floundering Tennessee team by 3 in OT. The Raiders are still playing hard and playing fairly well winning 4 of their last 7 games. Their losses during that stretch have come by 1, 3, and 3 points. They’ve only lost 1 game this season by double digits and nearly knocked off KC on the road this season losing 30-29 and outgained the Chiefs by 10 yards. Las Vegas was +7.5 in that game @ KC and now we’re getting a higher number with them at home because KC is in a perceived “must win” spot which we talk about below. Last week QB Stidham played outstanding and the Raiders offense outgained the red hot 49ers while averaging 7.6 YPP on the best defense in the league despite their 3 point loss in OT. Chiefs need to win to keep pushing for the potential #1 seed, however they’ve been in that spot for awhile now and struggled with teams far worse than Las Vegas as we mentioned. The Raiders would like nothing better than to knock off the big boy in the AFC West to end their season. We expect a great effort from LV in what should be a very tight game. Take the points. |
|||||||
01-05-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 124-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 PM ET - We were hoping this line would be lower than it is given the circumstances but the oddsmakers know what they’re doing and aren’t fooled by the Mavs current 7-game winning streak. Don’t get me wrong, winning 7 in a row in the NBA is difficult, but the Mavs have faced a soft stretch of teams and only one of those foes has a current winning record. In fact, those 7-teams have a combined record of 98-170 on the season. We like playing elite teams off a loss and the Celtics were embarrassed last time out against the Thunder in a 117-150 beat-down. Not one of the 23 or more win teams in the NBA have a losing straight up record this season when coming off a loss. There are 7 teams in the league right now that have 23+ wins and they are a combined 59-40 SU when coming off a loss. Boston holds advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency stats for the season and have better overall point differentials. Boston will get back on track tonight with a solid road victory in Dallas. |
|||||||
01-04-23 | TCU v. Baylor -5 | Top | 88-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor -5 over TCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Bears were embarrassed at Iowa State in their most recent game losing 77-62 @ Iowa State as a 1.5 point favorite. The Bears played that game without one of their best players, LJ Cryer, who averages 15 PPG on the season. He’s back for this game and we expect a big bounce back from Baylor after shooting well below their average in their ISU loss hitting only 37% of their shots (they average 47%) and just 22% from beyond the arc (they average 35%). This team has lost back to back games only ONCE since the start of the 22019 season. Now they are back at home where they average 87 PPG on 49% shooting with a perfect 7-0 record on the season. Going back further, Baylor has been dominant at home to say the least winning 47 of their last 50 games! TCU steps into this game with a 12-1 record having won 10 in a row. Problem is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (355th SOS) and they haven’t played a true road game yet this season. Almost half of their games (6) have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300. Despite playing an easy schedule, TCU has struggled to shoot the ball ranking 150th in FG% and 339th in 3 point FG%. Last year Baylor was favored by 10 at home in this game and won by 10. This year we’re getting them off a loss and at a discounted price. Lay it with the Bears. |
|||||||
01-04-23 | Thunder v. Magic -2 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Orlando Magic -2 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - Both teams will have adjusted rosters here as OKC is missing All-Star guard Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Magic have several suspensions including both Wagners and Bol Bol. We don’t mind the Magic having a shorter rotation tonight as they’ve been off since last Friday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Orlando had won 8 of nine games before losing their three most recent, the last coming at home. That helps set up tonight’s play on a rested, focused Orlando team. OKC is coming off one of their biggest wins of the season as they put up 150 on the Celtics last night. The Thunder shot well above season averages as they hit 59% overall and made 20 of 40 3-pointers or 50%. Oklahoma City is 1-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -5.2PPG. The Magic are 5-2 SU their last seven home games and will get a much-needed home victory here. |
|||||||
01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Johns +2.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Huge home game for STJ who has gotten off to a rough 1-3 start in Big East play. The Johnnies are coming off a poor performance @ Seton Hall where they were a 3.5 point dog and lost 88-66. In that game they underperformed on both ends of the court making only 41% of their shots and 22% of their triples. ON the defensive end they allowed the Hall to make 54% from the field. We expect them to bounce back at home where they are 8-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points vs Xavier who is ranked in the top 20 and just beat #2 UConn by 10 points. Marquette is on the east coast for their 2nd game in 4 days after upsetting Villanova (who now is just 7-7 on the season) on Saturday. The Golden Eagles trailed for much of the 2nd half but pulled out a 68-66 win. Marquette has a solid 11-4 record but they’ve only played 3 true road games and lost 2 of those with their only win coming by 2 points as we discussed. The Eagles were dominated on the boards on Saturday (-11) and we anticipate the same here as STJ is the 13th best offensive rebounding team in the nation while Marquette ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The host in this series has covered 10 of the last 12 and we like the desperate home underdog in this game. |
|||||||
01-02-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +2 vs Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - This is a plug your nose type bet as we are going against a Nuggets team on a 10-2 run and playing on a Wolves team that has lost 6 straight. But ask yourself this, why are the Nuggets this low of a favorite? Minnesota is coming off a demoralizing home loss to the Pistons on Saturday which prompted a player only meeting. This team was considered a strong playoff team this season but the injury to Karl Anthony Towns has hurt more than expected. Denver is red hot, but they are also coming off a big home win yesterday against the Celtics which makes this the 2nd of a back-to-back for them. This is also Denver’s 5th game in seven days so fatigue will be a major factor here. Denver hasn’t been a trustworthy road favorite with a 15-18 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2021 season. Minnesota is a respectable 37-26 SU at home since 2021. We like the Wolves to get this much needed home win over a spent Nuggets team. |
|||||||
01-01-23 | Steelers +2.5 v. Ravens | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
#107 ASA PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 met just a few weeks ago and Baltimore escaped with a 16-14 win. The Steelers outgained the Ravens 6.2 YPP to 5.1 YPP but had 3 turnovers (0 for Baltimore) which turned out to be the difference. Two of those turnovers were in Baltimore territory and the other led directly to Raven points. Pittsburgh only has a very slight chance to make the playoffs and it’s been that way for a few weeks now but they continue to play hard and play well. They have won 4 of their last 5 games with their only loss during that stretch coming vs this Baltimore team. Since Baltimore QB Jackson was injured (he won’t play here) the Ravens have struggled to say the least. They’ve won 3 of their 4 games without him, however it’s been rather unimpressive beating a bad Denver team by 1 (Baltimore scored with 28 seconds left to win), beating Pitt by 2 but outplayed as we discussed, lost @ Cleveland by 10, and then beat a bad Atlanta team 17-9 but the Ravens were outgained. Their back up QB Huntley has thrown for only 1 TD during that 4 game stretch with Baltimore averaging only 11.5 PPG over the last 4. We don’t expect their offense to come alive here facing a rejuvenated Steeler defense that has given up 17 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. This has been a very close divisional battle with 6 of the last 7 meetings being decided by 5 points or less and the dog is 20-6- 3 ATS the last 29 meetings. We like the Steelers on Sunday night. |
|||||||
01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants -5.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
#122 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Giants -5.5 vs Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Hindsight is 20/20 of course but one team we looked long and hard at playing against last week was the Colts. They have a lame duck head coach in Jeff Saturday, they have a revolving door at quarterback and were so desperate they played Nick Foles last week against the Chargers. Foles was 17/29 for 143 yards and 3 INT’s. There is a very good chance this team has tanked it for the season in an effort to nab a QB early in the draft next season. The Colts have lost 5 straight games and have THE worst road differential in the NFL at minus -10.8PPG. The Giants on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives and need to win this home game. New York has faced a tough gauntlet of games in recent weeks and steps way down in talent here. The Colts weakness defensively is their rush D which allows 122.2 rushing yards per game which is 20th in the NFL. The Giants average 144.9 rushing yards per game which is 6th best. This Colts offense ranks near the bottom of the league in nearly every key statistical category including total yards per game gained and scoring as they average just 16.5PPG. New York will bounce back here off that disappointing loss to the Vikings in which they outgained the Vikings by +92 yards but ended up losing late. Indianapolis lays down here in an ugly loss. |
|||||||
01-01-23 | Bears v. Lions -6 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -6 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Lions are fighting for a playoff spot and we expect them to play well at home on Sunday. They are coming off an embarrassing effort last week getting trounced @ Carolina in their 2nd consecutive road game after winning @ NYJ a week earlier. This Detroit offense has been fantastic at home averaging 32 PPG and should have their way vs a Chicago defense that has allowed an average of 33 PPG over their last 8. The Lions have averaged 3.15 points per possession at home which is the best rate in the NFL. The Bears offense hit their stride from late October to late November but they’ve hit a wall over the last month. They have not topped 20 points in any of their last 4 games and they are averaging just 15 PPG during that stretch. They’re going to have to do a lot better than that here to stay in this game. Chicago has been outscored by 84 points since week 8 which is the worst point differential in the NFL over that time span. Chicago has nothing to play for and they’ve lost 8 straight so it looks like they’ve thrown in the towel. Especially over the last 4 weeks when their offense has gone in the tank. Detroit defense prior to last week’s loss @ Carolina had really started to play well holding 5 straight opponents below their scoring average. We like the Lions to win this one by at least a TD. We don’t think Chicago will be able to keep up. |
|||||||
12-31-22 | TCU v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 51-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over TCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Michigan was in the College FB Playoff last year and got thumped 34-11 by UGA & they were down 27-3 at half. The players admitted last year they had a bit of a “just happy to be here” mentality as the Wolverines weren’t expected to be that good coming off a losing season the year prior. This year they are saying all the right things and completely focused on atoning for that loss and comfortable being where they are as they expected it. TCU is potentially this year’s Michigan so to speak. Their odds were 200 to 1 to win the National Championship prior to the season and the Frogs had a brand new coaching staff. No way they expected to be here and none of their coaches or players have ever been in this situation. Advantage Michigan in that regard. On top of that, TCU was a team that was behind or tied at half 5 times this season and trailed 5 times in the 4th quarter and had to make comebacks. They needed a number of breaks just to get here. Michigan, on the other hand, only trailed once in the 4th quarter this year (by 4 points early in the 4th vs Illinois) and they have the #1 PPG differential in college football with an average final score of 40-13. They are also in the top 4 in YPP and YPG differential and TCU ranks 13th and 24th in those 2 stats. The Wolverines 3rd ranked defense will be the best the Frogs have faced. In fact, TCU faced SEVEN defenses ranked outside the top 95 this season and the average ranking of the defenses they faced this year was 88th. On the other side, TCU’s defense is ranked 74th nationally and they are facing a balanced Michigan offense that runs and passes for 200+ yards and averages 40 PPG. We like Michigan’s experience here not to mention they are the better team. Lay it. |
|||||||
12-31-22 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -5.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We like this veteran MTSU squad at home off a loss on Thursday. They were beaten by Charlotte (10-3 record) on the road as a 2 point dog. At home this year they are 4-1 with all of their wins coming by at least 16 points. The Blue Raiders have one of the top home court advantages in CUSA as they’ve won 21 of their last 22 here at home. This is an MTSU team that finished with a 26-11 record last year and has 7 of their top 9 players back from that team. WKY is in a free fall right now losing 3 straight games after starting the season 8-1. Those 3 losses came vs teams ranked 257, 198, and 178 including an 11 point loss @ Louisville which currently has a 2-11 record with their only other win coming by 6 vs Florida A&M who is one of the worst teams in the country. Unlike MTSU who has most of their players back, Western KY returns only 2 of their top 8 players from last season. Western is 8-4 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country so far this season having not faced a single top 100 team and all but one of their wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They are 2-2 on the road but their 2 road wins were down to the wire vs Eastern KY and Austin Peay, both ranked outside the top 240. The Blue Raiders won both games last year (by 8 on the road and by 17 at home) and with basically the same team in tact, we like them to win and cover at home on Saturday. |
|||||||
12-30-22 | Clemson v. Tennessee +5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
#268 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tennessee +5 over Clemson, Friday at 8 PM ET - Clemson is vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are not the same team that waltzed into the Final 4 of college football for 6 consecutive seasons from 2015 – 2020. The Tigers played a fairly easy schedule (55th SOS) due to the ACC being an average conference at best, and yet they were still only +0.7 YPP for the year. Compare that to Tennessee, who played the more difficult schedule, yet their YPP differential was +1.9. We just watched Florida St, who we considered one of the top 2 teams in the ACC along with Clemson, struggle with a 6-6 Oklahoma team (we were on FSU unfortunately). Our power ratings had FSU & Clemson rated almost dead even at the end of the year. UT was one of the top teams in the nation all season long. Too much is being made of the Vols losing QB Hooker to an injury. While it is a downgrade to new starter Joe Milton for sure, let’s not forget that Clemson will also be starting their back up QB here. True freshman Klubnik who was highly rated but has never started a collegiate game. He will definitely be better than former starter DJ at some point but making his first start vs a high level opponent might be asking a lot. Milton definitely has the experience edge having thrown for over 2,200 career yards and he was a starter at Michigan before transferring to UT a few years ago. In his 1 start to end the regular season, Milton and the Vols beat Vandy 56-0 and outgained them by 260 yards. While expected, it was still impressive as Vanderbilt was drastically improved this season (1 win from making a bowl game) and the Commodores had beaten Kentucky & Florida the previous 2 weeks. UT has got some good news when 2 of their top players (OT and DE) declared for the NFL Draft but have decided to play in this game. Other than that, we grade the opt outs of these 2 teams about even. When both teams were at full strength, our power ratings make Tennessee about a 5 points favorite on a neutral. Getting 5 is a huge and unwarranted swing in our opinion and we’ll take the value with the Vols |
|||||||
12-30-22 | NC State v. Clemson -1.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -1.5 over NC State, Friday at 4 PM ET - Clemson is on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7 games and they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season. They have won 27 of their last 33 home games and where this line sits at -2 they really just need to win this game. The Tigers are +14 PPG at home this season and they’ve topped 3 top 100 teams at home. 5 of their 7 game wins have come by at least 10 points and they are facing an NC State team that has played one true road game this season losing @ Miami FL by 7 points. With that 1 road loss, the Wolfpack have lost 8 of their 11 road games since the start of last season which includes a 5 point loss @ Clemson last season. Versus higher level competition this season, NC State has a 3-3 record vs top 100 teams while Clemson is 3-1 vs top 100 teams. The Tigers have one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 28th in eFG% and 13th in 3 point FG%. At home they are hitting nearly 45% of their 3’s this year which make them very tough to beat at Littlejohn Coliseum where they have a PPG differential of +14 this season. If the Tigers are attempting to salt this game away at the FT line late, we’re looking at a team that hits 77% of their FT attempts. We like Clemson to win at home and cover on Friday evening. |
|||||||
12-30-22 | Pittsburgh v. UCLA -7.5 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UCLA -7.5 vs Pittsburgh, Friday 2 PM ET - Pittsburgh closed the season on a nice 4-0 SU streak, but it came against some weak competition. In fact, the Panther are 8-4 on the season but only 2 of those wins came against teams with above .500 records. Excluding Rhode Island, the teams Pitt beat this season have a combined 36-45 SU record. The Panthers have some solid defensive numbers, but again a soft ACC schedule has a lot to do with that. Pitt has not faced an offense like UCLA’s (3rd YPG) this season. In fact, the closest offense they faced this year would be North Carolina (17th total YPG) and they lost that game by 18-points. UCLA ranked 3rd in college football this season in yards per game gained at 510, 38th in passing YPG, 4th in rushing as they pounded 246RYPG to average 39.6PPG (10th). The Bruins offense put up a gaudy 6.8 yards per play which was 7th best in the nation. At first glance, it seems the Bruins defense struggled this season but let’s not forget the Pac 12 had 5 offenses that ranked 18th or higher in total YPG gained. The big player news for both teams clearly favors the Bruins as QB Thompson-Robinson, RB Charbonnet (4th in the nation in rushing yards) and WR Allen are all expected to play. Pittsburgh will be without QB Slovis, RB Abanikanda and defensive tackle Kancey, all three key players to this Panther roster. UCLA is looking to win 10-games for the first time since 2013 and should get a convincing win here against an overrated Pitt team. |
|||||||
12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
#256 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State -9.5 over Oklahoma, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - We know FSU is extremely happy to be in this bowl game having not played in the post-season since the 2019 season and not won a bowl game since the 2017 season. This game is in Orlando as well which will give FSU a solid home field (crowd) advantage. The Noles have some serious momentum winning 5 straight to end the season and their star QB Travis has stated he will be back next season. FSU was among the best teams in the country this season and their +2.2 YPP differential and +170 YPG differential was very impressive. It could be argued they are better than their 9-3 record as they outplayed 2 of their opponents in tight losses outgaining Clemson by 90 yards (lost by 6) and NC State by 80 yards (lost by 2). The Noles haven’t lost a game since mid October. Oklahoma had a very disappointing season. They were expected to be the top team in the Big 12 and contend for a spot in the Final 4. None of that came close to happening and they finished the regular season with a 6-6 record. While FSU is motivated in this game, we’re not so sure the Sooners will bring their “A” game here. This program is used to being in much bigger bowl games and this is a big step down for them. They will have to play this game without their All American RB Gray (1400 yards rushing) and both starting OT’s have left the program. When they faced a bowl team this year, OU was 1-4-1 ATS and outgained by 40 YPG. When they played against the top 3 teams in the Big 12 (only 3 teams rated in final playoff rankings), they lost all 3 by an average score of 48-19 and they were outgained by a combined 660 yards in those losses. We like FSU by double digits. |
|||||||
12-28-22 | Kansas +3 v. Arkansas | Top | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 90 h 24 m | Show |
#247 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas +3 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Love this spot for KU. First of all, they are thrilled to be here in the Liberty Bowl having not played in a bowl game since 2008. Arkansas we’re not so sure. We take that back, we’re actually pretty positive they aren’t overly excited about this bowl game. That’s because they finished 9-4 last year, won their January 1st bowl vs Penn State, and had very high aspirations coming into this season. A 6-6 season and a bid to the Liberty Bowl is not what they expected. The Razors have had as many defections as any team in college football which speaks to their probable lack of excitement for this game. All together, players who started a combined 95 games — 50 on offense and 45 on defense — for the Razorbacks will not play against Kansas. That is more than one-third of their total starts on both sides of the ball. The Razorbacks who won’t play against Kansas accounted for 3,410 offensive snaps (34.3% of all snaps), 2,583 defensive snaps (26.0%) and 787 special teams snaps (19.3%) according to Pro Football Focus. Not only is the motivation factor heavily in favor of the Jayhawks, their stats for the season were simply better as well. KU had a +1.2 YPP differential while Arkansas was -0.2 and believe it or not, according to the Sagarin ratings, Kansas actually played the tougher strength of schedule (4th vs 23rd). Jayhawk starting QB Daniels missed 5 games this season and they were 1-4 in those games. In the games where he started and played to the end, KU was 5-2. He’s back and healthy for this one which should be a big boost to the offense and they are facing an Arkansas defense that finished the season ranked 123rd nationally. Kansas had their struggles on defense as well, however with Arkansas missing a multitude of weapons, including 3 starting WR’s and TE, we’re not sure they can take complete advantage in this one. Jayhawk HC Leipold was an absolute fantastic post-season coach at the D3 level leading UW Whitewater to a ridiculous 6 National Championships. When he took over a downtrodden Buffalo program, he led them to 3 bowls (2-1 record) winning his last 2 by a combined score of 48-19. He’ll have this team more than ready to go on Wednesday. We like Kansas to win this game outright and getting +3 is a bonus cushion. |
|||||||
12-28-22 | Central Florida v. Duke -3 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
#246 ASA PLAY ON 8* Duke -3 over UCF, Wednesday at 2 PM ET - Duke is thrilled to be here and highly motivated to win this game. The Devils haven’t been in a bowl game since 2018 and they drastically outplayed their projections under first year head coach Mike Elko. Unlike many teams that have a laundry list of guys opting out and heading to the transfer portal, Duke have just 3 players in the portal and none were significant contributors. This team had a season total set at 3 wins and they step into this game with an 8-4 record having won 4 of their last 5. Duke has also outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they were 3-1 ATS vs the other bowl teams they faced this year and outgained 3 of those 4 teams as well. UCF lost by 17 points vs Tulane in the AAC Championship game so instead of playing a game vs USC on January 2nd, they are stuck in this game which falls well below where they expected to be this season. Unlike Duke, the Golden Knights have been heading the wrong direction failing to cover their last 3 games by a combined 43 points. In those final 3 they lost to a 4-8 Navy team as a 2 TD favorite, nearly lost to a bad USF team as a 20 point favorite (UCF scored a TD late to win by 7) and got walloped by Tulane and outgained by 240 yards. The Knights starting QB Rhys is really banged up with multiple injuries and may not play which would leave them with a freshman QB who is 3rd straight because their back up already left the program. If Rhys plays, he’s nowhere near 100%. On top of that, their top WR O’Keefe (73 receptions) left the program and their offensive coordinator took the same job at UNC. Too much going on with UCF for them to be fully focused here while Duke is more than ready. Lay the small number. |
|||||||
12-27-22 | Hawks -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:40PM ET The Pacers were essentially blown out in New Orleans last night as they trailed big early on and were never competitive. Tonight they return home to face a Hawks team that is finally getting healthy. The Hawks had their starting five back for their game against the Pistons on Dec 23rd and won 130-105. Atlanta comes into this game fresh and with a huge match up advantage over the Pacers. Last season the Hawks won (and covered) all 4 meetings with the Pacers including a pair of wins on this court. Atlanta should get plenty of second-chance opportunities in this game with their 10th best offensive rebounding unit going up against the Pacers 28th ranked defensive rebounding. Indiana also relies heavily on their 3-points shooting (11th) but the Hawks hold opponents to the 4th lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA. In their last five games the Hawks have a +/- of +6.4PPG. The Pacers have a negative differential of minus -4.2PPG in that same stretch. Take the visiting Hawks in this one. |
|||||||
12-26-22 | Chargers -4 v. Colts | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
#481 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers -4 over Indianapolis Colts, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Indianapolis has to be mentally shot coming into this game. After blowing their 33 point lead last week @ Minnesota (Led 33-0 at half and LOST) they are officially out of the playoff race. They also lost RB Taylor for the season in that game and will not now be starting Nick Foles at QB, their 3rd different starter this season. He has not taken a snap in a game this season. Not much to play for here and we wouldn’t expect a high level effort here from a team that has massively underachieved this season. Since beating Las Vegas in interim head coach Jeff Saturday’s debut, the Colts have lost 4 straight getting outgained in each game. Their defense has allowed 117 points in the last 3 games (39 PPG) and the Indy offense had been held under 20 points in 6 of their last 8 games. Even their offensive “breakout” last week vs the worst defense in the NFL (Minnesota) was aided by 2 non offensive TD’s so the offense really only scored 17 points. The Colts have scored a touchdown on 12.7% of their drives, tied with the Broncos for the lowest rate in the league. The Chargers are starting to play well winning 3 of their last 4 games. They are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot and a win here, plus a few other things that need to happen, could take care of that. The last 2 weeks LA has topped Miami & Tennessee outgaining those 2 by a combined 400 yards. The Chargers are getting healthy on both sides of the ball and we have a HUGE edge at QB here with Herbert vs Foles. Lay it. |
|||||||
12-26-22 | Clippers -5.5 v. Pistons | 142-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
ASA play on: LA Clippers -5.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 7 :10pm ET The Clippers have adapted to playing without Kawhi Leonard, so we’re not concerned about him being out tonight. The Pistons are dealing with the loss of Cade Cunningham and haven’t fared as well with a 5-game losing streak and a 2-8 SU record in their last ten games. Detroit is averaging just 108.6PPG and allowing 123PPG in their last five games. The Pistons offense is one of the worst in the NBA in points, FG%, 3PT% and rebounding. Tonight, it’s going to be especially tough to put points up against a Clippers defense that is top 4 in points, FG%, 3PT% and most importantly rank 2nd in defensive efficiency. LA is 5-2 SU their last seven games and are coming off a close loss in Philadelphia last Friday. The Clippers have won 7 straight in this series and are in line for an 8th win and cover tonight. |
|||||||
12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Denver has started playing much better in recent weeks covering 3 straight. Their offense has scored 52 points the last 2 weeks combined which is more than they put up the previous 4 weeks combined. In their last 3 games they led the entire way @ Baltimore before a Raven’s FG with under 1 minute remaining gave them a 1 point win, they lost by 6 at home vs KC and had the ball in Chiefs territory late with a chance to win, and then last week they beat Arizona 24-15. Since week 10, this Denver offense has scored TD’s on 80% of their red zone drives which is 1st in the NFL. Their defense remains very good ranking 4th in both total defense and YPP allowed. While the Bronco’s offense is starting to peak, LA’s offense continues to stink. They rank dead last in the NFL in total offense, YPP, and 31st in scoring at 16 PPG. Last week vs Green Bay the Rams tallied 156 TOTAL yards on 3.6 YPP and put up 12 points. QB Baker Mayfield was terrible completing just 12 total pass for barely 100 yards. A week earlier LA had 3 points vs a bad Raider defense with less than 4:00 minutes remaining in the game before scoring 2 late TD’s for 17 total points. Now they face one of the top defenses in the NFL and we just don’t see much offense for LA. Mayfield has been bad all year completing under 60% of his passes and ranking right at the bottom of the league in QBR. LA has very little to NO home field advantage and with this game being on Christmas Day we suspect that it will be even less. Russell Wilson is back under center and while he’s had a disappointing season, his 2 highest QBR ratings were his last 2 games so he’s trending up along with the Denver offense. We like Denver to win this game by more than a FG. |
|||||||
12-24-22 | Lions v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 23-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
#458 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Detroit Lions, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Detroit is a bit overvalued right now after winning 6 of the last 7 and covering 7 straight. Now they are favored on the road vs a team that, like them, is still battling for a playoff spot. In fact, if Carolina wins out, they are in the playoffs so still a ton to play for. Detroit hasn’t been a road favorite yet this season and in their last 20 road games they’ve been favored once and lost that game outright. Last week they won by 3 vs the Jets but that took a late 51 yard TD. Historically this Detroit team has been horrendous as a road favorite with a spread record of 22-40 ATS in that role since 1980. Since firing HC Matt Rhule, Carolina has actually played quite well. Prior to last week’s loss they had won 3 of their previous 4 games. The Panthers are coming off a loss as a home favorite vs Pittsburgh while Detroit is coming off a road dog upset win over NY Jets which sets this up very nicely for the home team. Carolina is a bit undervalued right now getting points at home despite covering 6 of their last 8 games. This line looks to easy to take the Lions as we expect many will. We’ll take the home dog as teams getting points at home are 49-37 ATS on the year with underdogs in general covering almost 55% of the time in 2022. Tough spot for Detroit in their 2nd straight on the road after an upset win last week. |
|||||||
12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - There is some value in this number as the Pacers were just +9.5 points at Boston and +8 at Cleveland. In fact, these two teams played on Dec. 12th in Indy and the Heat were favored by -3.5-points there which means this line should be higher than it is. We also like the situation with the Pacers off a big upset win in Boston, while the Heat are off an upset home loss to the Bulls. Miami had won 4 straight games and seemed to be finding their groove which has been missing for much of the season early on. Both teams are 16-16 SU on the season, but we feel the Heat can contend in the East, but the Pacers cannot. Miami has a clear advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA compared to the Pacers 19th rank. Indiana is better overall in offensive efficiency this season but in their last five games the Pacers OEFF is 1.096 which ranks 26th in the NBA. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS their last six when coming off a win. Since the start of last season, the Heat are 29-20 ATS when coming off a loss. We will acknowledge the Heat have been horrible ATS at home this season with a 3-12-1 record but that means a correction is in order. |
|||||||
12-23-22 | Clippers v. 76ers -3 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs LA Clippers, 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers are playing at another level right now with 6 straight wins to improve to 18-12 on the season. At home they are 13-5 SU with an average +/- of plus +6.8PPG which ranks 9th best. The Clippers are also playing well and are starting to get healthy but this will be their first road game since Dec 10th. LA is 8-7 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. The Clippers have a +9PPG average Margin of Victory in their last five games (all at home) but the 76ers are better yet at +14.6PPG in their last five. Philly has the 9th best offensive efficiency rating in the league's last 5-game span compared to the Clippers who rank 28th. Los Angeles has the best overall DEFF ratings in the last five games but the 76ers are 2nd. Philadelphia has covered 10 of the last thirteen and will get another win and cover here. |
|||||||
12-22-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Pelicans have hit a rough patch of games with 4 straight losses but let’s consider who those L’s came against. They lost a pair of games to a hot Jazz team, lost in Phoenix and home to the Bucks. Off that home loss we like them to explode with a big win today against the Spurs. San Antonio got a road win last time out against the Rockets but now steps up in class to face the Pelicans. New Orleans has the 8th best scoring differential at home this season of +7.8PPG and a 12-4 SU record. The Spurs have a respectable 5-8 SU road record but they are getting beat by an average of -8.9PPG which is the 3rd highest average in the NBA. San Antonio is one of, if not the worst defense team in the NBA ranking 30th in points allowed per game, FG% defense and 3-point percentage D. They are also mid-20’s in most offensive categories. The Pelicans are 7th in DEFF and 5th in OEFF and the far superior team in this setting and playing with a chip on their shoulders. New Orleans has faced the Spurs twice this season in San Antonio and was favored by -5.5 and -7.5 points in those two games. Even without Zion Williamson this is a bargain. |
|||||||
12-22-22 | Seattle University v. Utah State -9.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -9.5 over Seattle, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Hawaii. USU was 9-0 on the season heading into their home game on Monday night vs Weber State. We’re guessing they were looking ahead to this trip to Hawaii as they lost by 3 points at home as a 17 point favorite. Utah State blew an 18 point lead in that game and you can bet they’ll be ready for a bounce back performance here. Prior to that loss the Aggies had been fantastic this season with 8 of their 9 wins coming by double digits including 6 vs top 150 teams. They play fast and are a tough team to keep up with offensively averaging 87 PPG while ranking #1 in the nation in 3 point percentage (43%). The way to beat this USU team is to slow the game down and make them play long possessions in the half court. That won’t happen here as Seattle likes to play fast as well which plays right into Utah State’s hands. Seattle is 8-2 but they’ve played the much easier schedule facing only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 150. USU will be by far the best team Seattle has played this season. The only other top 100 team they’ve faced was Washington who beat the Redhawks by double digits. USU should get to the line a lot here as well as Seattle fouls a lot with over 23% of their opponents points coming from the stripe (25th most nationally). Not great as USU hits 76% of their FT’s as a team. We’re going to get an angry Utah State team here off a loss and we expect an easy win. |
|||||||
12-22-22 | Flyers +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 3-4 | Win | 121 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Toronto Maple Leafs, Thursday at 2:05 PM ET - Toronto is the better team of course but this is a bad spot for the Maple Leafs and yet they are laying a huge price on the money line here and even laying a sizable price on the puck line too. The Leafs are off huge divisional win over the Lightning which was only the 4th time in last 8 games that Toronto has won a game by a multi-goal margin. The Flyers have won only 4 of last 11 games but those 7 losses included 4 by just a single goal. That means that Philadelphia has only 3 multi-goal losses in last 11 games. Considering that plus the situational factor here with Maple Leafs off huge win over division rival Tampa Bay, the set-up here is perfect for a tight game. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with road dog Philadelphia is the value play here. |
|||||||
12-21-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +1.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#714 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +1.5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. Clemson had the better record at 9-3 compared to GT at 7-4 but they’ve played the easier strength of schedule. The Tigers have played 4 games away from home (true away + neutral) and they’ve won only 1 of those games vs Loyola Chicago on a neutral site. In their one true road game they lost @ South Carolina who currently sits with at 5-6 record. The Tigers only win away from home was by 8 points on a neutral site vs a California team that is currently 0-12. Tech is 6-0 at home and their 4 losses are all vs teams ranked in the top 50, all higher than this Clemson team. The Tigers scores 35.5% of their points from 3 (77th nationally) and they are facing the best 3 point defense they’ve seen this season with Tech allowing just 27% from deep (13th in the nation). Tech’s offense has been much better at home averaging 83 PPG and making 49% of their shots. Clemson is averaging just 58 PPG in their road games while making just 38% of their shots. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 outright in this ACC series and we like the home dog to win outright here. |
|||||||
12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. San Jose State | Top | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Eastern Michigan +4 over San Jose State, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have SJSU as a 1 point favorite on a neutral site so we feel the value is with EMU in this game. The Spartans have been trending down and overvalued for over a month now. They’ve lost 6 straight ATS by an average of more than 10 PPG. They were outgained by 4 of their last 6 opponents winning the stat sheet vs Nevada (2-10 record) and Hawaii (3-10 record) only. Their only wins since early September were vs Hawaii, Colorado St, and Nevada three teams who have a combined 8-29 record. EMU, on the other hand, is playing their best ball of the season right now winning 6 of their last 8 games with a spread record of 5-1-1 their last 7. The offense hit their stride down the stretch scoring 30+ points in three crucial games to end the season. This is also a team that beat Arizona State on the road earlier in the year and outgained the Sun Devils by 116 yards, prompting ASU officials to fire head coach Herm Edwards immediately after the game. EMU head coach Chris Creighton has been fantastic as an underdog going 3-1 ATS in bowl games and 35-10 ATS his last 45 getting points. The Eagles are the much more balanced offense rushing for 144 YPG and passing for 218 YPG. SJSU can’t run the ball averaging only 92 YPG (125th nationally) so they can be one dimensional on offense not great when your offensive line ranks 114th in sacks allowed per game. EMU is making this out to be a huge game for their program. They are looking to win their first bowl game since 1987. This game is being played in Boise which is in the same conference as San Jose State so we can’t imagine this is a rewarding bowl for that program. Take the points in this one. |
|||||||
12-19-22 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 12-24 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Rams +7 vs Green Bay Packers, 8:20 PM ET - These two teams had much higher aspirations this season and both have clearly fallen short. There isn’t a big difference between these two teams so we have to side with the Dog and the points here. The Rams are higher rated than the Packers when it comes to defensive DVOA rankings #14 whereas the Packers are 23rd. Green Bay holds the advantage offensively ranking 11th in DVOA while the Rams are 26th. The Rams have a negative differential of minus -6PPG which is one of the worst numbers in the NBA but the Packers aren’t much better at minus -3PPG which is 25th in the league. Green Bay has historically dominated in Lambeau but this season they have a negative differential of minus -0.8PPG. The Packers have already lost to the Titans and Jets at home and narrowly beat the Patriots. The Rams have two bad road losses on their resume to the 49ers and Chiefs and the Packers aren’t on that level. The other road games for the Rams are a 7-point loss at New Orleans, lost by 3 at Tampa and beat the Cardinals. Baker Mayfield had a week to learn more of the Rams system and should be better prepared for this road contest. Grab the points. |
|||||||
12-18-22 | Magic v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Orlando Magic, 3 PM ET - The Celtics were not in a good situation on Friday night when they hosted the Magic and lost outright as a 13-point favorite. They had just come off a big 6-game road trip and a tough OT win over the Lakers. Now we get a much better line with the Celtics in immediate revenge. Boston has the best overall point differential in the NBA and 3rd best average scoring margin when at home of +10.2PPG. They are 11-3 SU at home and 4-1 SU home off a loss. Overall the Celtics are 7-5-1 ATS when coming off a loss. Orlando is just 2-11 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -7.6PPG which is the 5th worst average in the NBA. Boston will settle in at home today and get a blowout win. |
|||||||
12-18-22 | Lions v. Jets +1 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 45 m | Show | |
#314 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Jets +1.5 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Detroit has won 5 of 6 (6-0 ATS) but they’ve had a very favorable schedule as of late. They haven’t played a road game since Nov 20th and their 2 road game wins were vs Giants (trending down big time) and Bears despite winning Detroit was outgained in both. Their last 5 wins have come vs defenses ranked 18th or lower (total defense) and the one top 10 defense they faced during that stretch, Buffalo, came away with a win @ Detroit. On Sunday they face a desperate Jets team that is coming home off 2 straight road losses @ Minnesota and @ Buffalo. Despite the losses, NY outgained the Vikings by 198 yards and outgained the Bills by 77 yards. For the season, NY is 8th in YPP differential while the Lions are 25th and the Jets have played tougher schedule. NYJ has a HUGE defensive advantage in this game as they rank 3rd in total defense and 2nd in YPP allowed while Minnesota ranks 31st and 32nd in those two categories. NY will be starting Zach Wilson at QB here and he has a lot to play for after getting unseated a few weeks ago by Mike White. Weather will be cold which we feel favors NY when facing off against Detroit who is a dome team. Our power ratings have the home team a slight favorite here so we’ll take the value with the Jets. |
|||||||
12-17-22 | Boise State -10.5 v. North Texas | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
#217 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -10.5 over North Texas, Saturday at 9:15 PM ET - This game is in Frisco, TX giving UNT a slight home field advantage but we still like Boise to roll. The North Texas program is in a bit of chaos after firing their head coach Littrell despite making the CUSA Championship game. That spot was just filled by an assistant coach from Washington State just a few days ago leaving the current coaching staff in limbo. The Mean Green were trending downward to close the season failing to cover their last 3 games and getting blown out in 2 of those games. They were 1-5 SU this year vs teams with winning records and in their 5 losses they were beaten by a combined score of 212 to 119 or an average final score of 42.5 to 23.8. They were outgained by over 600 yards in those 5 losses. Boise turned their season around once they switched QB’s and went with Green under center and hired longtime NFL coach Dirk Koetter to call plays. Once they settled on Green as the starter, the Broncos went 6-2 from that point on with their only losses coming vs BYU and Fresno in the MWC Championship game. They already had a great defense and with Green as the starter they averaged 32 PPG making them very tough to beat. The BSU defense has a HUGE advantage in this game ranking 6th nationally in total defense and 11th in scoring defense allowing 18 PPG compared to the UNT stop unit that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, pass defense, rush defense, and scoring defense allowing 31.5 PPG. Boise rolls in this one. |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
ASA ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-15-23 | Jazz v. Grizzlies -7.5 | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
02-14-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -8 | Top | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
02-14-23 | Creighton v. Providence +2.5 | Top | 86-94 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
02-13-23 | Wolves +8 v. Mavs | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
02-13-23 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Predators | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
02-13-23 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
02-12-23 | Ducks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
02-12-23 | Grizzlies +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
02-11-23 | Pacers +5 v. Wizards | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
02-11-23 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -5.5 | Top | 64-56 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
02-11-23 | Connecticut v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 53-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
02-10-23 | Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -2.5 | Top | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
02-10-23 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 107-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
02-09-23 | UAB +3 v. North Texas | Top | 79-82 | Push | 0 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
02-08-23 | San Diego State v. Utah State -1 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
02-07-23 | Nevada v. New Mexico -4 | Top | 77-76 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
02-07-23 | Maryland v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
02-06-23 | Bucks v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-108 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
02-06-23 | Duke v. Miami-FL -3.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 0 m | Show |
02-05-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +1.5 | Top | 98-128 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
02-04-23 | Marshall v. UL - Lafayette -1 | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
02-03-23 | Magic +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
02-02-23 | Clippers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 105-106 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
02-02-23 | Loyola Marymount v. BYU -4.5 | Top | 61-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
02-01-23 | Abilene Christian v. Seattle University -5.5 | Top | 83-68 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
02-01-23 | Nets +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 96-139 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
01-30-23 | Baylor v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
01-30-23 | Blues v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 117 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
01-29-23 | Bengals +2 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 12 m | Show |
01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 37 h 22 m | Show |
01-29-23 | Rutgers +4 v. Iowa | Top | 82-93 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
01-28-23 | Kansas +3 v. Kentucky | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
01-28-23 | Illinois v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 61-51 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
01-27-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
01-27-23 | Detroit v. Robert Morris -2.5 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
01-26-23 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois -5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
01-25-23 | Raptors v. Kings -3 | Top | 113-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
01-24-23 | Fresno State v. Boise State -10 | Top | 53-63 | Push | 0 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
01-23-23 | New Mexico v. Nevada -3 | Top | 94-97 | Push | 0 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
01-23-23 | Wolves v. Rockets +5.5 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
01-22-23 | Nets v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -8.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
01-21-23 | Belmont v. Bradley -6.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
01-21-23 | Nebraska v. Penn State -8.5 | Top | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
01-20-23 | Clippers -7 v. Spurs | Top | 131-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
01-19-23 | Washington State v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
01-18-23 | Hawks +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
01-18-23 | Duquesne v. St Bonaventure +1.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
01-17-23 | Texas v. Iowa State -2.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
01-16-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky +4.5 | Top | 76-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
01-15-23 | Thunder v. Nets -5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
01-14-23 | 76ers -4 v. Jazz | Top | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
01-14-23 | Coyotes v. Wild -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
01-14-23 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
01-14-23 | Providence v. Creighton -6.5 | Top | 67-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
01-13-23 | Magic +6 v. Jazz | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
01-13-23 | Jets +1.5 v. Penguins | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
01-13-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -12.5 | Top | 67-104 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
01-12-23 | Gonzaga v. BYU +7 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
01-12-23 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
01-10-23 | Illinois v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 76-50 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
01-10-23 | Hornets +8 v. Raptors | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
01-09-23 | Magic v. Kings -6 | Top | 111-136 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | Top | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
01-08-23 | Maple Leafs v. Flyers +1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
01-08-23 | Patriots +7.5 v. Bills | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
01-07-23 | Magic v. Warriors -6 | Top | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
01-07-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders +9.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
01-05-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 124-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
01-04-23 | TCU v. Baylor -5 | Top | 88-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
01-04-23 | Thunder v. Magic -2 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
01-02-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
01-01-23 | Steelers +2.5 v. Ravens | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants -5.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
01-01-23 | Bears v. Lions -6 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
12-31-22 | TCU v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 51-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
12-31-22 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
12-30-22 | Clemson v. Tennessee +5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
12-30-22 | NC State v. Clemson -1.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
12-30-22 | Pittsburgh v. UCLA -7.5 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
12-28-22 | Kansas +3 v. Arkansas | Top | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 90 h 24 m | Show |
12-28-22 | Central Florida v. Duke -3 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
12-27-22 | Hawks -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
12-26-22 | Chargers -4 v. Colts | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
12-26-22 | Clippers -5.5 v. Pistons | 142-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
12-24-22 | Lions v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 23-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
12-23-22 | Clippers v. 76ers -3 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Seattle University v. Utah State -9.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Flyers +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 3-4 | Win | 121 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
12-21-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +1.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. San Jose State | Top | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
12-19-22 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 12-24 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
12-18-22 | Magic v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
12-18-22 | Lions v. Jets +1 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 45 m | Show | |
12-17-22 | Boise State -10.5 v. North Texas | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 56 m | Show |