#426 ASA PLAY ON 8* LA Rams +3.5 over Las Vegas Raiders, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Rams head coach McVay set the precedent for sitting nearly everyone in the preseason a few years ago. He decided to sit his starters and many of his key reserves for the entire exhibition schedule. That will change this year. McVay, offensive coordinator LaFleur, and GM Snead have all stated their approach to this year’s preseason slate will be different. Last year they were coming off a Super Bowl win and had the luxury of sitting guys. This year, the Rams are coming off a 5 win season and many of the starting spots are up for grabs which should lead to a competitive situation for LA in the preseason with key players fighting for spots. While we expect the Rams to play many of their regulars, the Raiders have stated they will sit their starters. The Rams come into this one off a loss last week vs the Chargers. The Raiders are off a deceiving blowout 34-7 win over the Niners. In that game, despite the final score, Vegas was outgained and averaged only 4.5 YPP in the win. Rookie QB O’Connell from Purdue, was lights out completing 15 of 18 passes. We expect him to come back to earth a bit this week after struggling in their joint practices with the Rams this week. San Fran gifted the Raiders many of their points last week as the final 4 scoring drives by Las Vegas averaged just 19 yards. We would doubt QB Stafford plays for the Rams here but Stetson Bennett and Brett Rypien weren’t bad completing 20 of 35 for a TD with the offense scoring 17 points. The Rams didn’t play as bad as their final score last week while the Raiders didn’t play as well as their score may have indicated. We look for McVay to put an emphasis on this game coming off a loss and we like the Rams getting points at home.

#978 ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Twins to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Minnesota is expected to send Sonny Gray to start this one. Gray is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his 3 August starts and has struck out 25 while walking just 3 in his 19 innings this month! As for the Pirates, Mitch Keller will be the likely starter here. Keller is 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA in his 6 starts since the All-Star break and he has been hit at a .340 clip in these 6 outings! On the season Keller has a 5.00 ERA on the road and a 5.03 ERA in night games. Also, Twins are heating up again with wins in 4 of their last 5 and their 2nd half record being mediocre overall was certainly impacted by being road-heavy. This will be just their 13th home game since the break and they have had wins in 9 of 12 home games since the break. Also, 55 of the Pirates 68 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. Minnesota has gone 37-28 against teams with a losing record this season. Pittsburgh is 28-50 against teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and Minnesota's 64 wins this season have featured 48 of the 64 (75%) coming by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +120 money range with the Twins. Lay it!

#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs (-115) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET - Similar to our play on the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw last night, Boston's Chris Sale is a recent returnee from injury with one start under his belt since the return. Just like last night's blowout win for LA, we expect a similar result here and this time it is with the Red Sox at Washington. Sale had a stint on the injured list but has had a solid run and began August looking like he is ready to pick up right where he left off in early June after finding his stride this season with a solid month of May in particular. Over his last 7 starts, Sale has delivered a 2.43 ERA with a solid 48 strikeouts against just 5 walks in the 42 innings spanning those 7 starts. He should dominate here at Washington and he should get plenty of run support. Patrick Corbin is the expected starter for the Nationals and he is having another rough season. Corbin now has a record of 24-53 since the start of the 2020 season and opponents are hitting .323 against him in his home starts this year! Since the start of the 2020 season he has allowed an opponents batting average north of .300 and the Red Sox should pound him here. Boston is 21-13 against left-handed starters this season. On the season, 47 of 63 Red Sox wins and 49 of 67 Nationals losses have been by a multi-run margin. Washington is 30-43 against teams with a winning record this season. Boston has a respectable bullpen while the Nationals bullpen has an ERA that ranks dead last in the National League. As you can see above, the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs in afternoon action Thursday.

#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-105) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 9 straight games and us 13-1 last 14 games plus 59 of the Dodgers 72 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers are looking like they are getting primed for a huge post-season run and this includes Clayton Kershaw. He went 4-0 with a 1.09 ERA in June and held hitters to a .181 batting average for the month. He then had a stint on the injured list but has had a huge season and began August looking like he is ready to pick up right where he left off in June after 3 months of a solid season! Kershaw began August with a solid 5-inning stint versus Colorado. Now he can dominate the Brewers just like he did in May earlier this season in Milwaukee when he was also matched up with Wade Miley. Kershaw allowed just 1 earned run on only 5 hits in 7 innings while striking out 8 batters. As for Miley against the Dodgers, that was one of his worst starts of the season. Miley allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings in that start as LA rocked him. More of the same is likely here while the Brewers mediocre run continues. Milwaukee, after yesterday's 6-2 loss to the Dodgers, has gone 11-12 last 23 games. 10 of those 12 Milwaukee losses were by 2+ runs and, on the season, 45 of 55 Brewers losses have been by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers have scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 13 wins in their current run of 13-1 last 14 games! As you can see above, the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday.

#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Twins to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Minnesota is expected to send Bailey Ober to start this one. Ober has a 3.03 ERA when he is on his home mound this season and opponents are hitting just .233 against him in those 11 starts. Though he was hit hard in most recent start it was at Detroit and he did strike out 9 in 6 innings in that outing. Look for him to get revenge here against the Tigers as now Minnesota is hosting in this divisional match-up and the Twins have won 7 of 9 home games since the All-Star break. As for the Tigers, Alex Faedo will be the likely starter here. Though he was on the mound when the Tigers just beat Ober and the Twins, he was not overly impressive in that outing including allowing 2 homers. Faedo has been fortunate in that most of his outings have been at home this season but now this will be just his 3rd start on the road this season and he allowed 3 homers in under 10 innings in the two prior starts away from home. We love the fact that the Twins are seeking revenge for dropping 3 of the last 4 games in the recent series loss at Detroit. Also, Twins are off B2B wins and their 2nd half record has been impacted by being road-heavy. This will be just their 10th home games since the break and, again, they had wins in 7 of 9 home games since the break. Also, 50 of the Tigers 65 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. Minnesota has gone 34-24 against teams with a losing record this season. Detroit is 27-40 when facing teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and Minnesota's 62 wins this season have featured 46 of the 62 coming by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +115 money range with the Twins. Lay it!

#906 ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Max Scherzer to start this one. Scherzer is 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA when he is on his home mound this season and opponents are hitting just .215 against him in those 8 starts. Also, he has been rock solid so far this month in August as he has gone 2-0 in his first two starts since coming to the Rangers from the Mets. As for the Angels, Patrick Sandoval will be the likely starter here. Though he has pitched better overall of late, his recent numbers on the road show that the damage away from home definitely could have been much worse. Sandoval, in his last 4 road starts has allowed 19 hits and walked 11 in 20 innings for a 1.50 WHIP. Also, The Rangers bullpen does have an unimpressive ERA but there has been some misfortune with that as their 1.22 WHIP ranks a solid 5th in the majors! Conversely, the Angels bullpen WHIP ranks them in the bottom 5 in the majors! The Angels are off a win but this followed losses in 9 of last 11 games. Also, 46 of the Angels 60 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Rangers are off a loss but this followed wins in 10 of last 11 games! Also, Texas has gone 35-19 against teams with a losing record this season. The Angels are 34-44 when facing teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers 70 wins this season have featured 61 of the 70 (87% of them!) by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +115 money range with the Rangers. Lay it!

#956 ASA PLAY ON 8* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-160) OR -2.5 runs (-100) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - As we noted here yesterday, the Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August.  The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season.  Los Angeles has won 7 straight games and 11 of 12 and 57 of the Dodgers 70 wins this season have come by a multi-run margin.  In fact, 8 of last 11 wins and 20 of last 27 victories for LA have come by a margin of at least 3 runs.  That is why one can consider laying the 2.5 runs and no juice on the special run line available for this game as Colorado is a massive underdog with good reason.  The Rockies are the only team in the N.L. this season that has less than 24 road wins on the year. Not only is Colorado 20-42 on the road this season, the Rockies have lost 12 of their last 17 games and 57 of the 72 Colorado defeats have come by a multi-run margin this season.  8 of the Rockies last 10 losses have been by at least a 3-run margin.  Now a Rockies lineup that struggles away from home has to face Julio Urias.  Though the lefty has struggled on the road this season, he is 6-1 with a 2.22 ERA in his home starts this year!  Urias has held hitters to a .200 batting average at home this season after holding the opposition to a .183 batting average in outings at Dodger Stadium the prior season.  Colorado has been held to 2 or less runs in 6 of their last 8 games on this road trip. The Dodgers have scored an average of 6.8 runs per game in the 11 wins in their current run of 11-1 last 12 games!  The Rockies are expected to start Kyle Freeland here.  He is 1-8 with a 5.24 ERA on the road this season.  Freeland has been rocked in his starts since early July as he has allowed 40 hits in 29 innings!  Also, Colorado's bullpen is one of the worst in the majors for team ERA and WHIP.  As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-160) OR 2.5 runs (-100) in afternoon action Sunday. Because not everyone has option of the -2.5 we are releasing this play here on this site as officially a play at -1.5 runs and laying the heavier juice. We mention the other option for those of you who have that option available and wish to consider it.

#910 ASA PLAY ON 8* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-135) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 6 straight games and 10 of 11 and 56 of the Dodgers 69 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Rockies are the only team in the N.L. this season that has less than 24 road wins on the year. Not only is Colorado 20-41 on the road this season, the Rockies have lost 11 of their last 16 games and 56 of the 71 Colorado defeats were by a multi-run margin this season. Now a Rockies lineup that struggles away from home has to face Tony Gonsolin. Though he is off a tough outing in his most recent start, he had allowed only 16 hits in 20 innings over his last 4 starts leading into that one. Gonsolin is a combined 33-10 with a 3.00 ERA in his career and has held hitters to a .192 batting average in his career. Colorado has been held to 2 or less runs in 5 of their last 7 games on this road trip. The Dodgers have scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 10 wins in their current run of 10-1 last 11 games! The Rockies are expected to start Peter Lambert here. He is 5-10 with a 6.80 ERA at the MLB level in his career. Lambert has been rocked in both of his August starts and Colorado's bullpen is one of the worst in the majors for team ERA and WHIP. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Saturday.

#130 ASA PLAY ON 8* LA Rams -3 over LA Chargers, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Rams head coach McVay set the precedent for sitting nearly everyone in the preseason a few years ago. He decided to sit his starters and many of his key reserves for the entire exhibition schedule. That will change this year. McVay, offensive coordinator LaFleur, and GM Snead have all stated their approach to this year’s preseason slate will be different. Last year they were coming off a Super Bowl win and had the luxury of sitting guys. This year, the Rams are coming off a 5 win season and many of the starting spots are up for grabs which should lead to a competitive situation for LA in the preseason with key players fighting for spots. QB Stafford, WR Cupp, and DT Donald are a few that won’t play but many others will. QB Rypien will get the start and he has some decent experience with 130 career NFL pass attempts. He will be followed by rookie Stetson Bennett who won back to back National Championships with Georgia. Chargers head coach Staley has been adamant about resting his starters during the preseason and that will most likely continue this year as much of their lineup is already set. LAC is also learning a new offensive system under coordinator Kellen Moore who came over in the off-season from Dallas. They will be doing so with Easton Stick (1 career pass attempt) and Max Duggan (rookie) handling the QB position. The Bolts are also dealing with a rash of injuries, especially on the defensive line, and an illness spread through some of the team this week. This is a bigger game for the Rams coming off a 5 win season while the Chargers are eyeing another run to the playoffs. We’ll lay the FG and take the Rams here.

#109 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one opened with the Steelers favored by 1.5 and has jumped a bit. We like them here at -3 or lower and right now (Wednesday evening) the line is set at -2.5 at most shops. We like Pittsburgh’s QB rotation quite a bit which is key in the pre-season with backups and 3rd stringers getting a lot of time. They will start with Kenny Pickett who was solid last year as a rookie throwing for nearly 2500 yards on 63% completions. Pickett struggled a bit early in the season but Pitt won 5 of their final 6 games last season and their lone loss during that stretch was 16-14 vs Baltimore, a game Pickett sat out the majority of in concussion protocol. Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph are fighting for the back up spot and both have plenty of NFL experience, including starting experience. We have Pittsburgh’s offensive line & overall defense rated ahead of Tampa’s entering this season. The Bucs will start Baker Mayfield and QB and then move to Kyle Trask. Mayfield has been up & down at best in his career (61% career completion percentage) and Trask has attempted only 9 career passes in the NFL. The coaching edge is heavily in Pittsburgh’s favor with Mike Tomlin over Tampa’s Todd Bowles. Tomlin has put an emphasis on performing well in the pre-season with a SU record of 15-4 the last 5 seasons. Bowles was 0-3 SU in the pre-season last year, his first as Tampa’s head coach. Pitt beat the Bucs 20-18 last year in the regular season and that was with Brady at QB for TB. We like the Steelers to win this one by more than a FG.

#916 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over St Louis Cardinals, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Cardinals are likely handing the ball to Matthew Liberatore for this one.  He is having a very rough season and is winless with an 11.48 ERA in his 4 road starts this season.  As for the Rays, they are expected to start Zack Littell in this one.  He is coming off a very strong start and has allowed just 2 earned runs in 11 innings over his last two starts.  The Cardinals got the upset win yesterday but St Louis is just 27-45 in night games this season and only 31-45 against teams with a winning record.  The Rays play in the tough AL East but are having a rock solid season and they have dominated lesser teams.  Tampa Bay is 31-13 against teams with a losing record this season!  Also, the Rays are 38-20 in home games and a stellar 14-6 against left-handed starters.  Coming off a loss, this is a great spot to back the Rays.  The edges in home field and pitching (including bullpen) go to TB here. Also, the Cardinals had lost 12 of 17 games before the win yesterday and they have not won B2B games since mid-July.  We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one for a comeback price in the +115 range with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#910 ASA PLAY ON 8* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Brewers to roll to another big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Milwaukee is expected to send Wade Miley to the mound to start this one. Miley is 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA in evening games this season and opponents are hitting just .226 against him in those 7 starts. As for Colorado, Kyle Freeland will be the likely starter for the Rockies here. He is 1-8 with a 5.33 ERA in his road starts this season and opponents hitting .299 against him in those outings. In evening action, Freeland has a 6.04 ERA and opponents are hitting .307 against him. Also, the Rockies bullpen has a 4.93 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors! The Brewers bullpen ERA ranks them 10th in the majors and their 1.24 WHIP ranks them tied with two other teams for a solid 7th in the majors! We have had some solid success this season fading bad teams in the right situations and this looks like another one as Colorado has been dreadful on the road again this season including losses in 17 of their last 23. Overall, the Rockies are 19-38 this season in road games and they are 20-42 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, 55 of the Rockies 68 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The home team has won all 4 meetings between these teams this season and the home team is 14-4 in the last 18 games between these teams since the start of the 2021 season! All the edges point to the home team (won 12-1 yesterday) and another big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Brewers. Lay it!

#971 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Oakland A's, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to roll to a big road win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Dane Dunning to start this one. Dunning is 6-1 with a 2.60 ERA in evening games this season and opponents are hitting just .201 against him in those 16 outings (10 starts). As for Oakland, Ken Waldichuk will be the likely starter for the A's here. He is 2-7 with a 6.52 ERA this season and opponents hitting .287 against him. Also, the Athletics bullpen has a 5.53 team ERA this season to rank at the bottom of the majors! The Rangers bullpen does have an unimpressive ERA but there has been some misfortune with that as their 1.24 WHIP ranks a solid 8th in the majors! We love the fact that Oakland enters this game off B2B wins. The reason is because that strongly puts the odds in our favor that this will be a loss here! Note that the Athletics and Royals are two of the worst teams in the majors this season. They have the two worst records and it is because they can not sustain winning streaks. KC recently had a shocking 7-game winning streak and it is the only time this entire season that they have won more than 2 straight games! Likewise, early this season the A's had a 7-game winning streak and it is the one and only time Oakland has won more than 2 straight games this entire season! We have had some solid success this season fading bad teams in the right situations and this looks like another one as Oakland again fails in a situation when off rare B2B wins. Also, 58 of the Athletics 80 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Rangers have won 6 straight games and have gone 33-18 against teams with a losing record this season. The Athletics are 5-26 when facing teams from their division this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers 66 wins this season have featured 58 of the 66 by a multi-run margin! Looking for a road blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -125 money range with the Rangers. Lay it!

#924 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over New York Mets, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #4 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 30-14 record and 3.59 ERA. The Mets are one of the weaker bullpens in MLB with a 16-23 record and 4.30 ERA. New York is 24-37 in road games this season! The Mets have lost 5 straight games and been defeated in 8 of last 9 on the road. Baltimore is 23-7 in games against teams with a losing record this season and also enters this game having won 20 of 27 games dating back to early July. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins (29%) this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a home blowout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Mets 60 losses this season have included 43 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Kyle Bradish has been solid this season and this is particularly true at home where he has a 2.39 ERA this season and has held opponents to a .202 batting average! The Orioles hurler has allowed just 6 earned runs in 46 and 2/3 innings over his last 7 home starts!  Bradish has had only one bad home start this season and that was way back in April!  The Mets counter with Jose Quintana and he has only made 3 starts so far and has been hit at a .281 clip in those outings.  Orioles enter this game with wins in 25 of 37 games against left-handed starters this season. Each of the last 6 Orioles wins have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for New York, their overall struggles and road struggles continue after the fire sale that further dampened team morale as they were in sell mode come the trade deadline.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +120 money range with the Orioles. Lay it!

#977 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 7:07 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 30-80 and with 58 of their 80 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly, the A's enter this game just 19-67 when facing teams with a winning record this season and here they face a tough test as the Giants are 12 games over .500 on the season. The Giants are 7-2 last 9 games and San Francisco certainly holds an edge in the pitching department here. Ross Stripling is likely to draw this start. The A's have only one batter that has ever had a hit against Stripling so their experience against him is limited to say the least. Additionally, Stripling has been better than his full season numbers show. Since late June, Stripling has allowed 12 earned runs in 30 innings. With Oakland struggling so badly and also having little experience against him, Stripling should have a solid outing here. The Athletics are expected to start Paul Blackburn here and he is coming off an ugly July in which he compiled a 6.26 ERA and opponents hit .340 against him in his 5 outings (4 starts). Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.57 ERA. The Giants bullpen ERA of 3.58 ranks them TOPS in the National League. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with San Francisco being on the road. Based on all of the above edges we like SF here with action on the pitchers and feel the way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -105 money range with the Giants should be much higher. Lay it!

#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers just got swept by the Braves in Atlanta.  The Braves are having a fantastic season and now Milwaukee goes from facing one of the best teams in the majors to facing one of the majors' worst.  The Brewers are now in DC for this series and the  Nationals have the worst home record in the N.L. with a 20-33 mark on the season.  Also, against teams with a winning record this season, Washington is 25-42.  The Brewers, prior to the series with Atlanta, had won 11 of 14 road games.  Washington just lost 3 of 4 games and scored a total of only 4 runs in the 3 losses!  Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will likely make for another night of misery for the Nationals at the plate while the Brewers should quickly break out of their slump tonight in this early evening match-up. Burnes has been top notch this season and is having an absolutely phenomenal month of July!  Burnes has allowed just 6 earned runs on only 11 hits while striking out 42 in the 33 innings over his 5 starts this month.  A superb stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Also, we are going action on pitchers here because the Nationals are expected to start Jake Irvin (6.32 ERA since All-Star break) so this is also a play against situation the way we see it.  Irvin is a rookie and still going through some growing pains at the MLB level and this comes as no surprise given his minor league stats either.  This season he has had a 5.64 ERA at the AAA level and last year he was 0-4 with a 4.79 ERA at the AA level.  45 of 62 Nats losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 1.5 runs per game in their last 6 road wins.  They again shutdown the opposition and their bats should flourish against Irvin and a Nationals bullpen that is dead last in the N.L. with a 5.40 ERA this season.  This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one.

#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals continue - along with the Athletics - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball.  Now off a rare win yesterday, Kansas City is in the perfect spot to be faded.  KC got the walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 10th and now will likely be flat today after the big celebratory win in dramatic fashion last night.  The Royals just do not win back to back games very often.  Indeed, it has been a dreadful season for Kansas City and they have gone 2-14 the last 16 times they were off a win!  Dating back to mid-May, the Royals have won B2B games just TWICE!  Incredibly, the longest winning streak for KC is just 2 games this entire season!  The Twins enter this game off 3 straight losses and that certainly is noteworthy here.  That's because Minnesota has only lost more than 3 in a row a single time this entire season!  The Twins, when entering a game on a losing streak of exactly 3 games, have won that 4th game all but one single time this season!  Minnesota's record in this situation is 7-1 so you have a fantastic play on situation for the Twins and a solid play against situation for the Royals.  This is all before talking about the pitchers which is also a huge edge for Minny here.  Bailey Ober gets the call in this one and he has been rock solid over his last 5 starts and has a 2.16 ERA in the month of July.  Ober was strong in his only start against KC this season.  The Royals Jordan Lyles, on the other hand, got rocked by the Twins in his most recent start against them this season.  Also, Lyles allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his start against the Yankees Sunday.  Lyles is 1-12 with a 6.19 ERA this season!  Lyles is 0-6 at home and 0-5 in night games this season.  The Royals are 18-56 against teams with a winning record this season.  The Twins are 24-12 against teams with a losing record this season.  40 of 54 Minnesota wins by at least a 2-run margin this season.  62 of 75 Royals losses by a multi-run margin this season.  We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Twins. Lay it!

#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Pirates have slumped badly after that miracle early season start they had.  It is hard to believe now but, at one point early this season, Pittsburgh was 20-8.  Now, from the month of May onward it has been an entirely different story.  The Pirates enter this game on a run of 23-48.  Also, Pittsburgh's 56 losses have included 47 by at least a 2-run margin.   The Padres are playing their first home game since the All-Star break.  Though San Diego is off a loss yesterday, this followed wins in 4 of last 5 games.  Also, the Padres have won 5 of last 6 home games.  42 of San Diego's 48 wins have been by a multiple run margin.  Given these facts, if you like the Padres to win this game you can see why we have excellent value at the -1.5 runs here as 84% of Pirates losses and 88% of Padres wins by at least a 2-run margin this season.  The pitching helps the cause here too as Quinn Priester is making just his 2nd MLB start.  His first outing last week saw him get crushed for 7 earned runs in 5 innings.  Priester will prove to be no match for the Padres Yu Darvish.  The veteran right-hander tends to be very strong at home but he had rare struggles in his last 2 starts at home.  Now, entering this start off B2B strong road outings since the All-Star break, Darvish is ready to resume his typical home dominance.  In his two starts entering this one, Darvish has allowed only 1 earned run on just 9 hits while striking out 16 in 12 innings!  Here he should dominate a struggling Pirates lineup.  The way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily make a case that the price in the -120 money range with the Padres should be much higher. Lay it!

#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 28-73 and with 53 of their 73 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly, and even including yesterday's rare upset win over the Astros, the A's enter this game just 5-25 against divisional foes this season and here they face a tough spot as the defending champs are looking to avoid a 2-2 series split. The odds certainly favor the Astros bouncing right back as Oakland is just 6-38 in day games this season. Truly incredible numbers that favor Houston to respond immediately off the upset loss here and knock off the A's. The Astros are 21-12 against divisional opponents this year and Houston holds a huge edge in the pitching department here. Additionally, the Astros are a red hot 10-4 last 14 games on the road! Hunter Brown is likely to draw this start. Brown has dominated the Athletics in both starts against them this season! Brown allowed just 3 earned runs only 9 hits while striking out 19 in the 13 innings over those two starts. Brown is off a tougher start at Colorado but he really settled in after a tough first inning and that was at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Brown has struck out 35 over his last 24 innings and can again dominate a weaker lineup that has struggled against him this season. The Athletics are expected to start Luis Medina and he is 0-3 with an 8.35 ERA in his 4 day game outings this season. He allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings in his start against the Astros this season. Medina allowed 10 baserunners in that outing and also gave up 3 homers to Houston in that one! Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.57 ERA. The Astros bullpen ERA of 3.69 ranks them 5th in the majors. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with Houston being on the road. The Astros won 6-4 Friday and that sent the Athletics to their 10th loss in 12 games. Now, after a rare Oakland win last night, the way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -130 money range with the Astros should be much higher. Lay it!

#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, Grayson Rodriguez just recently returned from the minors because he had been sent down for a lengthy period in which he was struggling so badly. Rodriguez did not look much better in his return from the minors. Some pitchers just never quite cut it at the MLB level no matter the success they have in the minors. This is one rookie who might end up fitting that bill. Rodriguez has a 7.33 ERA in the majors this season in his 11 starts and opponents are hitting .311 against him. He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his start last week which was his first start since being called up again. As for the Rays, they are expected to start a true ace in Shane McClanahan here and he had a dominating first start since coming back from a minor injury. He just pitched at Texas last week and that is a tough Rangers team and he dominated in that outing. This is not a huge surprise as he has dominated again all season long. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.56 ERA this season and he is coming off a stellar season last year for Tampa Bay too. With yesterday's 3-0 shutout win, the Rays are now 36-16 at home this season. The Orioles are having a strong season too and these clubs are battling it out at the top of the AL East division right now. However, the edges in home field and starting pitching both go to TB here. Also, 29 of the Orioles 38 losses this season have been by at least 2 runs. 47 of the Rays 61 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one for a comeback price in the +115 range with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 27-72 and with 52 of their 72 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's enter this game just 4-24 against divisional foes this season and here they face a tough one as the defending champs are in town. The Astros are 20-11 against divisional opponents this year and 18-10 versus left-handed starters. This match-up is a battle of southpaws and Houston holds a huge edge in the pitching department here. Additionally, the Astros are a red hot 9-3 last 12 games on the road! Framber Valdez is likely to draw this start. Valdez has a 2.76 ERA this season and it is no fluke as he went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA last season! Valdez has held opponents to a .227 batting average for the season and also has held opponents to a .227 batting average in his 6-year career. The Athletics are expected to start JP Sears and he has allowed 12 earned runs in 17 innings over his last 3 home starts. Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.64 ERA. The Astros bullpen ERA of 3.70 ranks them 7th in the majors. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with Houston being on the road. The Astros won 3-1 last night and sent the Athletics to their 9th loss in 11 games. The way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -140 money range with the Astros should be even higher. Lay it!

#952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 12:20 PM ET - The Braves have now lost 4 straight games.  The last time the Braves had a losing season was 2017 and, ironically, that is also the last time that Atlanta has had a losing streak of more than 4 games!  In other words, it has been over 5 YEARS since Atlanta has had a losing streak of at least 5 GAMES!  The Braves are 33-20 this season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up.  Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 26-27 this season against teams with a winning record.  Also, Arizona is just 13-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-16 against all NL teams this season!  In terms of the pitching edge here, the Braves Spencer Strider is 11-3 with a 3.66 ERA this season.  The Diamondbacks Zac Gallen has equally impressive overall numbers but there is one key factor about his numbers.  Gallen has been Jekyll and Hyde in terms of his road versus home performances.  This season on the road Gallen is 2-4 with a 5.11 ERA.  Atlanta will respond here as their bullpen is still ranked #1 in NL and #3 in majors while the Dbacks ERA ranks their bullpen 19th in the majors.  Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games prior to this rare 0-4 stretch.  26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs.  The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 20 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs.  Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here.  The hosts should roll big in this one.   We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the +110 comeback range with the Braves. Lay the 1.5 runs here!  

#908 ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - It is hard to believe that the team with the best record in baseball scored 13 runs and yet still lost yesterday. That was these Braves and we had them right here as they blew leads of 13-12 and 11-8 in the eventual 16-13 defeat. We look for Atlanta to immediately respond today on Wednesday. The Braves are 33-19 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 25-27 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 12-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-15 against all NL teams this season! Charlie Morton is 5-0 in his last 5 starts and he has been delivering a fantastic July with a 3-0 record and a 0.47 ERA so far this month for Atlanta. The expected Diamondbacks starter, Ryne Nelson, has been at the other end of the spectrum of late with Arizona losing 4 of his last 6 starts. Nelson has allowed 18 earned runs on 40 hits in 32 innings over his last 6 starts. The Braves are off 3 straight losses and haven't lost 4 straight games since mid-May! Atlanta will respond here as their bullpen is still ranked #1 in NL and #3 in majors while the Dbacks ERA ranks their bullpen 19th in the majors. Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-3 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 19 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. The hosts should roll big in this one. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -110 money range with the Braves. Lay it!

#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Entering this series, the Braves are 33-18 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up.  Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 22-26 this season against teams with a winning record.  Also, Arizona is just 11-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-14 against all NL teams this season!  The Diamondbacks are in for a tough test here from the team with the top record in the NL as Elder is likely to draw this start.  Bryce Elder has a 2.97 ERA so far this season and he has made 10 night game starts already on the season and is undefeated with a 4-0 record in those match-ups.  The expected Diamondbacks starter, Zach Davies, is 1-5 on the season.  He has a 6.37 ERA on the season and now has a combined 9-22 record over the 2021/22/23 seasons!  The Braves are off B2B losses and haven't lost 3 straight games since mid-May!  Atlanta will respond here and Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-2 stretch.  26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs.  The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 18 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs.  Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here.  We also like the fact Elder's last start was a rare bad one and now he will bounce back against an Arizona team whose lineup could struggle as they have never faced him.  The Braves, on the other hand, have 10 hitters with experience against Davies.  7 of those guys have at least 4 at bats against him and all 7 of those have at least 1 RBI with a total of 15 RBIs in 70 at bats combined.  That is a great ratio as it equates to a hitter having 105 RBIs in a 490 at-bat season.  The hosts should roll big in this one.   We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Braves. Lay it!

#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The A's continue - along with the Royals - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Oakland got hammered 10-7 by Minnesota yesterday and the A's tough season continues. 7 of the 9 starters in the lineup that Oakland used in yesterday's game have batting averages of .225 or less on the season! Minnesota, on the other hand, has a team slugging percentage of .403 on the season and that is 48 points higher than the Athletics slugging percentage on the season.  That is just one example of the disparity between these two teams and the Twins have a pitching edge here too. Minnesota's Joe Ryan is 5-3 with a 2.95 ERA in day games this season and also holding hitters to .195 batting average in day games this season. This afternoon the A's are expected to send JP Sears to the mound. The lefty has pitched a little better of late but has a 1-6 record on the season plus has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last two home starts!  Oakland is 14-42 against teams with a winning record this season. Minnesota has won both the first two games of this series and is looking to move to 8-4 against AL West teams this season with another win here.  37 of the Twins 47 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. The Athletics are 5-37 in day games and 54 of their 69 losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Another edge is that the Minnesota bullpen is strong and ranks in the top 8 teams in the league while the Athletics bullpen is dead last for team ERA in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Twins. Lay it!

#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals dropped to 25-62 with their 5-0 shutout loss at Minnesota last night. Keep in mind, KC was facing a Twins hurler (Pedro Lopez) last night that had given up at least 4 earned runs in 5 of last 7 home starts! If they could not scratch anything off him they are certainly unlikely to have success against a Guardians hurler that is in strong current form. Tanner Bibee has a 2.38 ERA at home and opponents have hit just .195 against him in his 6 home starts this season. Bibee should dominate here and the Guardians also should pound Jordan Lyles. He is off his first win of the season. Lyles allowed 4 earned runs in the start but finally got a win after KC was 0-15 in his first 15 starts this season! We have no hesitation here in fading a guy that, when on the mound, the Royals have gone 1-15 this season. Lyles has allowed 17 earned runs in 25 innings over his last 4 starts. In May he went 0-4 with an 8.89 ERA. In April, his final 5 starts saw Lyles allow 23 earned runs in 30 innings. Consistency matters and, in this case, Lyles has struggled consistently this season without a doubt. Even if he is not the starter here and even if Bibee (so strong at home) does not go, we still like the better team at home to win this game by at least 2 runs. 12 of the last 13 KC losses have been by at least 2 runs! Cleveland is off a tough series with Atlanta and just got blasted by the Braves 8 to 1 but they are 17-7 this season when off a loss in which they were held to 2 or less runs. In terms of bullpen ERA, Guardians are 2nd in MLB and Royals are 29th in MLB. Blowout likely here. Rain expected, particularly early in the day in Cleveland, but it should clear up well enough by the time this game rolls around. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -105 money range with the Guardians. Lay it!

#964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Boston Red Sox, Sunday at 1:37 PM ET - The Blue Jays lost a tight one yesterday to the Red Sox and that was on Canada Day too so it was a particularly tough home loss for Toronto. We look for a big bounce back effort from the Jays here as a result. We like this play regardless of the starting pitchers but the Blue Jays do have a strong pitching edge here as a well. Kevin Gausman has made 17 starts this season and only 3 of them have been tough. In his other 14 starts he has allowed only 14 earned runs in 92 innings! That equates to a minuscule 1.37 ERA in 14 of his 17 starts this season. Gausman can bring it and has a 2.48 ERA at home this season plus is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in day games this season. The Red Sox are going with Garrett Whitlock here and he has allowed 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings spanning his last two starts. Boston is at .500 on the season and Toronto is 19-6 this season against teams that do not have a winning record. The Red Sox are unlikely to get the sweep at Toronto and, prior to these B2B wins, had lost 7 of 8 games. Before these B2B losses, Toronto had won 6 of 8 games. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a comeback price in the +105 money range with the Blue Jays. Lay it!

#917 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago White Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:07 PM ET - Oakland entered this series 21-62 and with 46 of their 62 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's entered this series just 16-45 against right-handed starters and here they are expected to face a good one as Dylan Cease is likely to draw this start. Cease is coming off a fantastic June in which he had a 2.20 ERA for the month and and it is no fluke as he held opponents to a .192 batting average for the month. The Athletics were expected to start James Karpielian but he landed on the DL with a shoulder issue. That means this is likely going to be a bullpen game for the A's and Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.75 ERA. In other words, a huge edge for a red hot Cease and the much stronger team being on the road. The A's actually won last night's game but have only had 3 winning streaks this season and so the odds of winning B2B games is between slim and none. When off a standalone win this season, the A's have gone 3-10 this year. You have one of the worst teams in MLB off a rare win and against a solid pitcher. With A's likely going with a bullpen game here, this is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -140 money range with the White Sox. Lay it!

#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold. The fact we can get a reasonable -125 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one! The Nationals are having a very rough season and have lost 48 of 79 games this season and that includes having lost 12 of 16 when they are entering a game off a win. Here they are matched up with a Mariners team that has been particularly tough against bad teams. When facing teams that do not have a winning record, they have won 24 of 36 games. After Washington won yesterday's game 7-4 in 11 innings, here you have a very strong play on situation and a very strong play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses. What about wins and losses by 2+ runs? Well, the key here is that the Mariners have seen 30 of their 38 wins come by at least a 2-run margin. The Nats have seen 34 of their 48 losses come by at least at 2-run margin. Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers. The Mariners are expected to start Logan Gilbert here and he has been dominating regularly the past two months. He has only 2 tougher starts since May 1st and the other 8 outings have seen him allow a total of only 15 earned runs in 51.2 innings! The Nationals are likely starting Patrick Corbin here and he is 21-51 the last 4 years with consistently high ERA numbers. This season his ERA is 6.34 in road games. Also, the Washington bullpen is dead last in the National League this season based on ERA while the Mariners bullpen ranks as one of the best in the majors. As you can see, we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Mariners. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold.  The fact we can get a reasonable -125 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one!  The Nationals are having a very rough season and have lost 47 of 77 games this season and that includes having lost 27 of 41 night games. Here they are matched up with a Mariners team that has been particularly tough against bad teams. When facing teams that did not have a winning record, they have won 23 of 34 games.  So here you have a very strong play on situation and a very strong play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses.  What about wins and losses by 2+ runs?  Well, the key here is that the Mariners have seen 29 of their 37 wins come by at least a 2-run margin.  The Nats have seen 33 of their 47 losses come by at least at 2-run margin.  Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers.  The Mariners are expected to start Luis Castillo here and he has been dominating at home this season.  Castillo is 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA and holding opponents to a .169 batting average in his 9 starts in Seattle on the season.  The Nationals are starting Trevor Williams here most likely and he is off a rare strong start after 4 straight starts in which he was hit quite hard.  Also, the Washington bullpen is dead last in the National League this season based on ERA while the Mariners bullpen ranks as one of the best in the majors.  As you can see, we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Mariners. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-155) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold.  The fact we can get a reasonable -155 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one!  The Royals are having a very rough season and have lost 54 of 74 games this season and that includes having lost 32 of 40 games against teams with a winning record!  Here they are matched up with one of the best teams in MLB and the Rays have been particularly tough at home where they have won 32 of 40 games.  So here you have an 80% play on situation versus an 80% play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses.  What about wins and losses by 2+ runs?  Well, the key here is that Tampa Bay has seen 75% of their wins (39 of 52) come by at least a 2-run margin.  The Royals have seen 83% of their losses (45 of 54) come by at least at 2-run margin.  Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers.  This is a case of hot versus not and now, how about those pitchers?  The Rays are expected to start McClanahan here and he has been dominating this season.  McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.12 ERA and he is coming off a stellar season for Tampa Bay. Last year he held hitters under a .200 batting average and he had a strong 2.54 ERA on the season.  The Royals are taking a bullpen approach to this game with Jose Cuas likely to get the start but only going to go about 1 inning as an opener.  So what about the KC bullpen since we will be seeing plenty of it in this one?  The Royals relief pitching is a combined 10-17 with a 4.82 ERA and the late inning pen has been bad too with 10 of 20 saves being blown.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one even at a -155 price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!  

#920 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a solid play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Guardians have the #2 bullpen in MLB thus far based on opponents batting average with a .218 BAA. For bullpen ERA, Cleveland also ranks 2nd with a 2.98 ERA while the Athletics rank dead last at 30th with a 5.51 ERA. Oakland is on a 6-game losing streak. That included a tough beat yesterday for the league-worst Athletics. The manner of loss yesterday - blew 2-run lead in bottom of 7th and lost in 10th inning - was a 6th straight defeat and will be really tough to come back from. The Athletics are again in a major slump now and so a loss in that fashion is devastating in more ways than one. Note that Oakland's 56 losses this season have included 41 by at least a 2-run margin! The Guardians 34 wins have included 20 by at least a 2-run margin. So the odds here certainly favor that a Guardians win will be coming by a multi-run margin. Cleveland has won 11 of 17 games versus AL West opponents this season. As for the pitching match-up here, the Athletics Paul Blackburn has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts and he is still settling in after his start to this season was delayed until late May! The Guardians counter with Gavin Williams and though this is his MLB debut, the rookie right-hander is highly touted for a reason. He has excelled at all levels of the minors and he has been piling up strikeouts. The A's 6-game losing streak appears destined to add another defeat today and, after some recent 1-run losses, don't be surprised when this one turns into another blowout defeat by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +125 money range with the Guardians. Lay it!

#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 1:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a solid play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Twins have the #4 bullpen in MLB thus far based on opponents batting average with a .223 BAA. For bullpen ERA, Minnesota ranks 7th with a 3.50 ERA while the Brewers rank 22nd with a 4.29 ERA.  Milwaukee is on a 5-game losing streak.  That included an ugly series sweep at home at the hands of the league-worst Athletics.  Then, the manner of loss yesterday in the Brewers 5th straight defeat will be really tough to come back from.  Milwaukee led that game 5-3 going to bottom of the 9th but then allowed 4 runs including 2 on a walk-off homer that finished them off.  The Brewers are in a major slump now and so a loss in that fashion is devastating in more ways than one.  Note that Milwaukee's 33 losses this season have included 29 by at least a 2-run margin!  The Twins 34 wins have included 27 by at least a 2-run margin.  So the odds here certainly favor a Twins win coming by a multi-run margin.  Minnesota has won 15 of 25 home games since late April.  The Brewers have lost 13 of 20 road games over roughly the same time frame.  As for the pitching match-up here, the Brewers Colin Rea has allowed 10 earned runs in 16 innings in his last 3 road starts! The Twins counter with Bailey Ober and he has a 2.61 ERA and has held opponents to a .200 batting average in his 9 starts this season.  The Brewers 5-game losing streak appears destined to add another defeat today and 12 of the last 13 losses for Milwaukee have been by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Twins. Lay it!

ASA Top Play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -8.5 vs Miami Heat, Game 5 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - The Heat have been a fantastic story this postseason after upsetting the two best teams in the East to make the Finals, but their season comes to an end tonight. Miami got some incredible contributions from a few of their role players but it’s apparent that Cinderella story has come to an end. Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson have essentially disappeared in the Finals and Adebayo/Butler can only carry the load so far. Denver’s three wins in this series have all come by double-digits and in the most recent game they got a less than normal performance from their two SuperStars Murray and Jokic. With the Nuggets back at home where they are 9-1 SU in the playoffs, and currently own an average +/- of +9.9PPG on the entire season, we expect a convincing win against a team that has run out of gas. The Nugs have also won 37 of their last 42 home games.

#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a top play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #5 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 17-10 record and 3.34 ERA. The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 9-14 record and 4.86 ERA. Kansas City is an incredibly bad 8-32 in games against teams with a winning record this season! Baltimore is 21-9 in games against teams with a losing record this season. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a home blowout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Royals 46 losses this season have included 39 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Kyle Gibson has a 7-3 record and 3.87 ERA this season! The Orioles hurler has allowed just 6 earned runs in 24.2 innings over his last 4 starts! The Royals counter with opener Carlos Hernandez but Mike Mayers is expected to get the bulk of the work here. This is another reason we like action on the starting pitchers. Hernandez, the past two seasons, has an 0-8 mark and 6.29 ERA. As for Mayers, he has made only 4 appearances so far this season and he has struggled in 2 of his 3 road outings. The first one, walks were an issue and now in his most recent outing he got crushed at Miami. Orioles enter this game with wins in 13 of 18 games against Central Division opponents this season. Of last 25 wins, 20 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for Kansas City, the Royals enter this one on a 5-game losing streak and have lost 23 of last 30 on the road. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +110 money range with the Orioles. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* MIAMI HEAT +3.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 4 Friday 8:30 PM ET - This is tough for me as we predicted the Nuggets in 5 games but with how the last game played out, we expect Game 4 to go down to the wire. The Nuggets adapted in Game 3 after the Heat used Jimmy Butler as the primary defender on Murray in G2 and it paid off with Jamal scoring 34-points. Now it’s Spoelstra’s turn to make an adjustment and we’re confident he will have a new dynamic in Game 4 for the Nugget to try and figure out. Denver used Jokic and Murray in an exclusive 2-man game and told the rest of the team to watch and it worked perfectly. Miami’s defense wasn’t the main culprit though as their offense failed them. The Heat shot just 37% overall and 31% from the 3-point line. In the postseason, the Heat are shooting .469% overall and .392% from beyond the arc. Miami has been the best overall 3-point shooting team in the playoffs. With their backs against the wall, we like the Miami shooters to find the range at home in this do-or-die Game 4. Miami is 17-6 SU at home off a loss this season including a 5-2 SU record in the postseason. Grab whatever points are available.

#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Marlins -1.5 on the Run Line (+130) over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - With yesterday's 9 to 6 win the Marlins are entering this match-up on a 9-3 run over their past dozen games.  This includes 4 straight wins.  Also, 8 of the 9 wins have been by at least a 2-run margin!  Kansas City certainly falls into an entirely different category as they enter this one 18-42 on the season and with 12 of their last 13 losses by 2 or more runs.  The Royals enter this match-up having gone 6-27 in games against teams with a winning record this season!  They are 5-11 against left-handed starters and face a tough one here as Jesus Luzardo expected to get the ball for Miami.  Though he has a 4.05 ERA so far this season, he had a 3.32 ERA last season and is going to take advantage of facing a weaker foe here and he does have a 3.35 ERA at home this season.  As for the expected Kansas City starter, Zack Greinke, he has been decent this season but is 0-10 the last two seasons combined in his road starts.  Throughout his career, Greinke is known for struggling more on the road than at home and that has been the trend with him again this season.  Also, going against Greinke here is the fact that it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like KC that struggles at the plate plus ranks just ahead of Oakland in terms of having a league-worst bullpen.  You have one of the worst teams in MLB against a winning team that is starting to heat up.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a solid comeback price in the +130 money range with the Marlins. Lay it!

ASA NBA Top Play on 10* Miami Heat +8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 2 Sunday 8 PM ET - Game 1 went according to plan as the Nuggets dominated a tired Heat team and had the spread covered with 5-minutes to go in the 2nd quarter and never let the lead slip below double digits. We like Denver to win this series BUT we will grab the points in Game 2 given how Game 1 played out. The Heat lost by 11-points despite shooting just 41% overall and making 13 of 39 3-point attempts. They also attempted just 2 free throws the entire game. All of those numbers are extremely low based on what Miami has done this entire postseason. The Heat own the best 3PT% in the playoffs at .387%. They have been the 6th best overall shooting team at .468%. On average they have attempted 20 free throws per game, making on average 16.1. In Game 1 the Nuggets shot above expectations at 51% overall, made 30% of their 3’s (slightly lower than playoff average) and hit 16 of 20 FT’s. If Miami has an ‘average’ game by their playoff standards, they will keep this game within double digits. They now have extra days rest and time to get acclimated to the higher altitude of Denver. We are betting on Jimmy Butler being much better than his 13-points on 14-field goal attempts. We also expect Martin, Strus and Robinson to shoot much better from beyond the arc than they did in Game 1 when they were a combined 2 for 16. Yes, Denver has not lost at home in the postseason, but the Heat have also won 6 road games in the playoffs. This game will be much closer than the last. Grab the points.

#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Marlins -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - With yesterday's dominant 12 to 1 win the Marlins are entering this match-up on a 6-2 run over their past 8 games. Oakland certainly falls into an entirely different category as they enter this one 12-48 on the season and with 38 of their 48 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's enter this afternoon match-up having gone a putrid 1-24 in day games this season! They are 8-34 against right-handed starters and face a tough one here as Sandy Alcantara expected to get the ball for Miami. Though he has a 4.93 ERA so far this season, he had a 2.28 ERA last season and is going to take advantage of facing a weaker foe here. As for the expected Athletics starter, Paul Blackburn, he is returning from injury. Though his first start went okay, he took 81 pitches to complete 4 innings and he did struggle in his rehab starts before making that first MLB appearance of this season. Also going against Blackburn here is that it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like Oakland that struggles at the plate plus has a league-worst bullpen. Oakland enters this game 4-13 in inter-league matchups. You have one of the worst teams in MLB against a winning team that is starting to heat up. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Marlins. Lay it!

#951 ASA PLAY ON 8* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 5:10 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers have been slumping with losses in 9 of last 14 games and the Reds actually have won 5 of 6 but the wins came on the road and Cincinnati is just 2-5 last 7 games at home.  Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will quickly bring the Reds back to reality here and the Brewers will break out of their slump tonight in this early evening match-up.  Burnes has been top notch this season ever since working out the kinks in his first two starts of the season.  Since that time, he has allowed just 16 earned runs in his last 9 starts. In his last 54 innings of work he has been excellent in striking out 53!  The turnaround for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season!  Also, we are going action on pitchers here because the Reds are expected to start Brandon Williamson (5.02 ERA) but this is also a play against situation the way we see it as Cincinnati is 6-13 last 19 against the Brewers plus 13-24 against right-handed starters this season. As for Reds starter Williamson, he was 1-5 with 4.07 ERA at AAA level last season and 2-4 with a 6.62 ERA this season at the AAA level.  He had some success in his MLB debut this season but has struggled in each of the two starts since and we look for the fade to continue for Williamson in this outing.  6 of last 7 Reds losses have been by at least a 2-run margin and 71% of Milwaukee wins this season have been by a multi-run margin.  This game has road blowout written all over it.  We like the Brewers on the run line in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -8.5 vs. Boston Celtics, Game 1 Thursday, 8:30 PM ET - I was watching Game 7 of the Heat/Celtics the other night and when it became obvious that the Heat were going to win, I started immediately thinking about Game 1 of the Finals. I actually said to my wife, if the playoff sporadic Celtics were favored by 10-points at home in Game 2 of that series that suggests the Nuggets should be favored by 12 in Game 1 given the circumstances. The Heat have played a gauntlet of brutally tough games/series and now must travel to the higher altitude of Denver to face a Nuggets team that has been off 9-days. Eventually, everyone’s legs will go for the Heat as they are not that deep to begin with. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Heat “sacrifice” Game 1 to try and steal Game 2. Teams with at least 7 days of extra rest are 4-1 SU in Game 1’s. The Heat were the 4th worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season but have miraculously shot over 43% in their series against the Bucks and Celtics. Miami has the 23rd EFG% in the NBA at 53.2% while Denver has the best overall EFG% at 57%. Denver had the 13th best EFG% defense, Miami own’s the 23rd worst. The Nuggets are undefeated at home in the playoffs with an average +/- of +12PPG. Denver was also a much better team defensively at home this season allowing just 1.107-points per possession (5th) during the regular season. Lastly, I typically don’t talk matchups, but the Nuggets have a decisive advantage with Nikola Jokic over anyone the Heat throw at him. Adebayo can’t match him in the post and can’t exploit him defensively on the perimeter. In fact, Joker is 10-2 SU lifetime versus Adebayo. Overall, the Nuggets have won 9 of the past 10 meetings over the last 5 seasons. We like Denver BIG in Game 1.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7 vs. Miami Heat, Game 7 @ 7:30 PM ET - Pressure! All the pressure now sits squarely on the Miami Heat as they have blown a 3-0 lead in this series and could potentially be the first team ever to lose a playoff series in that scenario. Last time out the shooting for both teams was the storyline. Boston couldn’t make a 3-pointer as they shot just 20% from Deep. They did, however, shoot 63% on 2-pointers and made 29 of 34 FT’s. Miami on the other hand shot 47% from beyond the arc but hit just 30% from inside the line. The added value in the line is also significant in this elimination game. The three previous games between these two teams in Boston had you laying -8.5, -10 and -8.5 points. I’m betting the Celtics have another shooting game as they did in Game 5 at home when they won by 13-points. The C’s shot 41% from the 3-point line in that game and own the 6th best 3PT% in the NBA. Would we be surprised to see Miami struggle to shoot again? No! The Heat were a bad shooting team all season long ranking 26th in team FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston at home and predict a Celtic win by 15.

#970 ASA PLAY ON 8* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - Now we get even more line value here as we fade a team on a 7 game losing streak. Oakland's JP Sears has some decent numbers but the Mariners Logan Gilbert has been even better and so now the price at -1.5 runs in the pick'em range means we have excellent value on the run line in this one. We have successfully gone to the "play against" well a handful of times already this season when it comes to the Athletics. That said, we have no hesitation in this spot again, and just like yesterday, will come right back and go against them again here as Oakland continues to be the worst team in baseball. The Mariners have struggled this season against teams with a winning record but have feasted against non-winning teams this season and have gone 18-7 against them! Oakland is 10-41 this season and simply consistently bad. They are 5-20 at home and 5-21 on the road this season. Yes, they consistently lose 80% of their games. Of course that is why they are a huge underdog here but we can get a reasonable price on the Mariners by playing Seattle at -1.5 on the run line in this one. The Mariners have won by 2 or more runs in 20 of their 25 wins this season. The A's have had 32 of 41 losses by at least a 2-run margin this season. This included, prior to Tuesday's 1-run loss, 14 of 15 losses by at least a 2-run margin of defeat for Oakland. The Athletics have a bullpen ERA of 6.57 which ranks dead last in the majors while Seattle's relief pitching has a 3.07 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors. We like the Mariners to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers. However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Seattle as well. The expected starter for Seattle is Gilbert. The starter slated for the Athletics is Sears. The Oakland left-hander has a 4.99 ERA and an 0-3 record so far this season. Sears has some good numbers versus Mariners but has only faced them once at Seattle and we expect the M's to be stronger against him here on their home field after seeing him at Oakland earlier this season. Gilbert was 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA last season and now this season he has been heating up with 29 strikeouts compared to just 16 hits allowed so far in the month of May. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like Monday's and Wednesday's routs that sandwiched the tight 1-run win Tuesday (17-3 combined score in the two blowouts).

ASA top play on Miami Heat +8 vs. Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - Boston may win this game but asking them to cover is too much. The Heat have clearly been the better team in this series overall and have largely outplayed Boston for the majority of the series. In the Celtics Game 4 win the Heat shot poorly at 44% overall and 25% from the 3-point line. The Heat had shot well in the previous 3 games by hitting over 52% from Deep in two of three games and over 46% in all three. Miami has the 2nd best average point differential in the NBA in the Playoffs at +4.7PPG which trails only the Nuggets at +8.3PPG. Miami is 5th in points allowed per possession in the postseason compared to the Celtics who rank 10th allowing 1.138PPP. Offensively the Celtics have a slight edge in the playoffs averaging 1.182-points per possession, but the Heat are right behind the at 1.170PPP. The Heat match up well with Boston which is why they’ve covered 5 of the last six meetings overall and 4 of the last five in Boston. We like the points here with Miami.

ASA top play on 10* LA LAKERS -3 vs. Denver Nuggets – Game 4 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - We're betting there is enough pride left in the Lakers locker room to come out with a motivated effort here to avoid getting embarrassed and swept in the Playoffs. The Lakers have outplayed the Nuggets for a majority of the games but have fallen victim to big runs by the Nuggets, like the 13-0 run in the 4th quarter of last game. The key to this game is the line value. This line is where the Game 3 number should have been so now, we get to back a L.A. team at the proper number. The Lakers were 30-19 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of nearly +5PPG. They shoot 48.1% overall at home and hold foes to 45.2%. Denver has not been a great road team this season with a 22-25 SU road record and an average differential of minus -2.1PPG. The Nuggets defense on the road has been suspect this season as they allow opponents to make 49.4% of their field goal attempts and give up 115.1PPG. As long as LeBron and Anthony Davis show up tonight we should be in a good position to win with the Lakers.

#914 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We won with Houston in this spot yesterday and will come right back with them again here. The Astros have won 5 straight games and are hosting an Athletics team that has the worst record in the league. Not only that, the A's are an incredibly bad 1-18 in day games this season. Yes 18 of 19 afternoon games for the Athletics have seen them on the losing end. Oakland has a bullpen ERA of 6.56 which ranks dead last in the majors while Houston's relief pitching has a 3.07 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors. The A's are 10-36 on the season and we like the Astros to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers. However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Houston as well. The expected starter for Houston is Hunter Brown. The starter slated for the Athletics is JP Sears. The Oakland left-hander has a 5.27 ERA and is winless in his 8 starts this season. Brown had limited action last season but was great and now he has been working as a starter this season and has been rock solid. He is now 6-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his career and has allowed an average of just 2 earned runs in his 8 starts this season. He can step up here again at home in Houston and deliver a solid start versus a bad Oakland team whose .215 batting average versus right-handers is the worst in the American League. 20 of 25 Astros wins have been by at least a 2-run margin this season. 81% of Athletics losses have been by a multi-run margin as 29 of their 36 defeats have been by 2+ runs. Oakland has lost 10 of 12 games and each of the A's last 12 losses have been by 2+ runs. Houston has won 8 of 9 games including 5 in a row. This game has home blowout written all over it again. We like the Astros on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like yesterday's here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -8.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 2 at 8:30 PM ET - Don’t be intimidated by the number in this one. When the Heat faced the Bucks they were dogs by 9-points and 13-points in two of the games in Milwaukee. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. In Game 1 the Heat caught fire (no pun intended) by hitting 54% of their FG attempts and 52% of their 3-point attempts (16 of 31). As we previously reported, that won’t continue in Game 2 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the league and the Heat are 27th in the league 3PT% at 34.4%. We like Boston at home off that loss and predict a Celtic win by 15.

#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Oakland Athletics, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Astros have won 4 straight games and are hosting an Athletics team that has the worst record in the league.  Oakland has a bullpen ERA of 6.62 which ranks dead last in the majors while Houston's relief pitching has a 3.15 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors.  The A's are 10-35 on the season and we like the Astros to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers.  However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Houston as well.  The expected starter for Houston is Brandon Bielak.  The starter slated for the Athletics is Ken Waldichuk.  The Oakland left-hander has a 7.02 ERA and opponents are hitting .310 against him in his 8 starts this season.  Bielak has limited action both this season and last season but his lone home start this season was solid and 2 of his 3 appearances at home last season (all were long relief appearances) were solid.  He can step up here again at home in Houston and deliver a solid start versus a bad Oakland team whose .214 batting average versus right-handers is the worst in the American League.  19 of 24 Astros wins have been by at least a 2-run margin this season.  80% of Athletics losses have been by a multi-run margin as 28 of their 35 defeats have been by 2+ runs.  Oakland has lost 9 of 11 games and each of the A's last 11 losses have been by 2+ runs.  Houston has won 7 of 8 games including 4 in a row.  This game has home blowout written all over it.  We like the Astros on the run line in this one.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 1 8:30 PM ET - The value in the number tells us to back the Celtics at home in the opener. In the two games in Milwaukee that Giannis played in the Bucks were favored by 9-points and 13-points. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. These two teams split their regular season meetings with the favorite covering 3 of the four. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston by double-digits in the opener.

#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Padres have been slumping but they faced a tough road slate with 6 straight away games before this series started.  As for the Royals, their 4 most recent wins (before yesterday's 5-4 victory over here at San Diego) came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics.  The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season.  Facing San Diego's ace Yu Darvish will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Padres will break out of their slump tonight.  San Diego did win the first game of this series 4-0 and another big win should come here.  Darvish ranked 7th in the N.L. in strike outs last season!  He is piling up strikeouts again this season plus has allowed only 1 earned in 3 of his 4 home starts this season.  We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Carlos Hernandez (5.05 career ERA) but he will be more of an opener as he has been working out of the bullpen again this season and is unlikely to go more than 3 innings here.  That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Hernandez.  Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Padres lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 4.86 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB.  Also, the Royals had lost 14 of last 18 road games before yesterday's rare win.  Speaking of rare, the Royals have struggled to build any momentum this season with their longest winning streak being 2 games.  Also, KC is 0-4 this year when off a 1-run win and they took yesterday's game by a 5-4 count.  26 of 31 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 85% of San Diego wins this season have been by a multi-run margin.  This game has home blowout written all over it.  We like the Padres on the run line in this one.

#44 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Edmonton Oilers Puck Line (-1.5 goals +130) over Vegas Golden Knights, Sunday at 10 PM ET - We know Edmonton is going to bring it on home ice here after the tough Game 5 loss.  We like the Oilers no matter who is in goal here as the Knights injured Brossoit did not even travel with the team. The Knights choices are the P/O inexperienced Hill or rusty Jonathan Quick here.  The Oilers, when off a loss, are a perfect 8-0 the last 8.  As for laying the 1.5 goals here, the Oilers wins in this series was by a 5-1 final at Vegas and all 3 of their home wins in this post-season (including 2 against the Kings) were by multi-goal margins - 14 to 6 aggregate on those three games.  The Oilers, dating back to their red-hot close to the regular season as well, were 20-5 last 25 games before that Game 5 loss. This is bounce back time and we expect Edmonton to improve to 9-0 last 9 times when off a loss.  Of course the Oilers are a huge money line favorite for a reason and, that being said, we see a lot of value with the puck line in this one. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Edmonton for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 7 - We liked the Celtics to come out of the East before the Playoffs started and will back them here in this Game 7 over Philly. Examining the last game, the Celtics won despite a horrible game by Tatum. Jaylen Brown wasn’t great either with 17 points and 7 rebounds. In this situation it’s hard to back a Philadelphia team that will need a great James Harden, who has a penchant for not showing up in big games, to be just that…great. Embiid is obviously one of the best players in the game, but it will be hard for him to carry this team to the finish line. Boston had the 3rd best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers at home this season. Philly was 1st in DEFF on the road but 10th in OEFF away from home. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season and we don’t see them losing a third home game in this series to the 76ers.

#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers have been slumping but they faced a tough slate while Royals actually have won 4 of 5 but the wins came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics.  The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season.  Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Brewers will break out of their slump tonight.  Burnes has been top notch this season ever since working out the kinks in his first two starts of the season.  Since that time, his ERA is 2.08 and he’s allowed just 20 hits in 30.1 innings of work while striking out 26!  The turnaround for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season!  Also, in his 2 starts vs Kansas City in his career, Burnes has pitched 12 innings, allowed 6 hits and struck out 18. We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Josh Taylor (6.55 ERA) but he could be more of an opener as he really has not been a starter much at any level in the minors nor at the MLB level.  That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Taylor.  Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Brewers lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 5.11 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB.  Remember we mentioned above that Kansas City's recent wins have come against weaker foes and that certainly is worth noting because  Kansas City is a horrible 6-23 against teams with a winning record this season.  Also, the Royals have lost 10 of last 14 road games and they were in action yesterday while the Brewers were resting courtesy of an off day yesterday.  23 of 27 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 70% of Milwaukee wins this season have been by a multi-run margin.  This game has home blowout written all over it.  We like the Brewers on the run line in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -5.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - We were grateful for the Knicks win in the last game of this series, but the facts of the matter are the Heat have clearly been the better team overall. The oddmakers have obviously seen what we’ve seen as they’ve bumped this line higher than the previous two games in Miami. The home team has won 4 straight with a 3-1 ATS record. Going back further the host has won 7 of the last nine meetings. The last four wins by the home team have all come by 6+ points. New York was good away from home all season long but it’s obvious the Heat have “flipped a switch” in the postseason and are playing at another level. Miami is 32-15 SU at home on the season and have won 5 straight home playoff games. Even when you factor in the play in loss to the Hawks at home the Heat have an average +/- at home in the PO’s of +9PPG. The Heat have covered 7 of the last ten meetings with the Knicks on this floor and are also on a 4-0 ATS streak when coming off a loss. Miami is the tougher team and they finish this series tonight with a double-digit win over the Knicks.

#30 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line (-1.5 goals +140) over  Florida Panthers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Maple Leafs are back in this thing.  That win at Florida in Game 4 was huge.  Yes, Toronto is down 3-1 in this series but sometimes all it takes is one.  Not only do the Leafs finally have a little momentum, they also have home ice on their side in this Game 5.  Yes it is still a tough situation that Toronto has put themselves in but they also know they only have to win one more game at Florida to win this series as long as they defend home ice.  That being said, defending home ice is exactly what we expect the Maple Leafs will do here.  4 of 5 Toronto home games in this post-season have been decided by a multi-goal margin.  The Maple Leafs are a big money line favorite for a reason here and you can also see why the odds suggest good probability that the winner of this game in Toronto will win it by 2 or more goals.  Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Toronto for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

#26 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Dallas Stars Puck Line (-1.5 goals +135) over Seattle Kraken, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - Dallas has won 6 of 9 games since a double-OT loss to open up this post-season. Not only that, the Stars 5 of 6 wins have been by at least a 2-goal margin. We feel they have swung momentum in this series with the 6-3 Game 4 win at Seattle and can now build on that at home and be even stronger here. They will not be denied and have won 3 of last 4 on home ice with the only loss in overtime and all 3 wins by at least a 2-goal margin. Each of Seattle's last four losses have come by a multi-goal margin. Look for this one to be as well. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Dallas for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

#22 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers Puck Line (-1.5 goals +130) over Vegas Golden Knights, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - The Golden Knights lost goalie Laurent Brossoit to injury in Game 3 of this series.  Vegas then brought in Adin Hill and he was great in relief but the Knights' skaters really came out flying in that game and something seemed amiss with the Oilers all night long even though they were on home ice.  That said, now a still-recovering Brossoit (he also had hip surgery recently) will be getting the start for Vegas or Hill will be making the first post-season start of his NHL career.  There is a big difference between coming on in relief in a game in which your team also gets a big lead for you versus getting the start.  Hill would be entering this game with a 0-0 score of course and having plenty of time to think about making his first-ever playoff start, etc.  That is a much different "animal" per se and we know Edmonton is going to bring it on home ice here after the embarrassing Game 3 loss.  We like the Oilers no matter who is in goal here as the Knights have the injured Brossoit, first P/O start Hill, or rusty Jonathan Quick as their choices here.  The Oilers, when off a loss, are a perfect 7-0 the last 7.  As for laying the 1.5 goals here, the Oilers win in this series was by a 5-1 final at Vegas and BOTH their home wins in this post-season (against the Kings) were by multi-goal margins - 10 to 5 aggregate on those two games.  The Oilers, dating back to their red-hot close to the regular season as well, were 19-4 last 23 games before that Game 3 loss. This is bounce back time and we expect Edmonton to improve to 8-0 last 8 times when off a loss.  Of course the Oilers are a huge money line favorite for a reason and, that being said, we see a lot of value with the puck line in this one. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Edmonton for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - We will go back to the well with the Knicks in this elimination Game 5. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, then in Game 4 the Heat pulled another stunning road upset of the Knicks by 8. The Knicks shot poorly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. In Game 4 the Knicks played well throughout most of the game until the 4th quarter when they shot just 33% for the quarter and gave up 7 offensive rebounds in the final stanza. New York was one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA at 46.6 boards per game but have been out rebounded by 11 in the last two games. We expect that to change in this do-or-die situation at home and will back the small home favorite. New York is 13-6-1 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of 3-7-points. Miami as a dog in this same price range is 6-9 ATS.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5 vs. Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The home team has won and covered all 4 meetings thus far in this series and we are betting that trend continues. In the first two games of this series the Nuggets dominated at home with an 18-point and 10-point win. The two games in Phoenix were relatively close and in the pivotal Game 3 the Suns won by 5-points despite shooting 57% overall and 45% from Deep. The Nuggets are 39-7 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of +10.2PPG. Phoenix is 19-26 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -0.9PPG. Denver was exceptional off a loss this season with a 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS record at home when coming off a defeat. The Nugs have covered 6 of their last seven at home and our computer simulator has them winning this game and getting a cover in the process.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks +4.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks have the right makeup to battle through adversity with a tough-minded defensive team and proven coach. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, but we like them to bounce back here. The Knicks shot uncharacteristically badly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. Miami was the benefactor of 31 free throw attempts to the Knicks 22 and the Heat made 28 of those attempts. Miami had an average +/- at home this season of just +1.2PPG which was 20th in the NBA. The Knicks average point differential on the road was 5th best in the league at +1.6PPG. This Knicks team found a way to win 2 road games in Cleveland in the 1st round and they’ll keep this game close to the final buzzer.

#901 ASA PLAY ON 8* Run Line: Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 6:35 PM ET - The Pirates have lost 7 straight games and we are going to fade them here.  We get line value with a reasonable price on the +1.5 runs on the run line as the Pirates have Mitch Keller on the mound.  This has impacted the pricing of this game and certainly Keller is a solid starting pitcher.  However, the key here is that the Rockies also have a strong starting pitcher on the mound with Kyle Freeland expected to get the ball here.  Additionally, Colorado has won back to back games and they exploded at the plate in yesterday's win.  Keller is 2-0 in home starts this season but he entered this season 3-17 in home starts in his career!  As for Freeland, because he pitches his home starts in hitter-friendly Coors Field, he tends to have inflated ERA numbers overall.  His road ERA numbers in recent seasons have been strong and this season he is pitching consistently well both home and away.  We are aware of his minor neck issue but he still was just fine versus the Brewers in most recent start.  He has been solid in 6 of his 7 starts this season and, ironically, the lone bad one was at home against these Pirates.  Big difference between facing them on the road rather than at home and we expect he will get revenge in this start.  The Rockies have won 6 of 7 games and the only loss was by a single run!  Pittsburgh has lost 7 straight games and also, only 5 of their last 15 home games have been wins by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Don't be surprised if the road team gets the upset over the home team that is mired in a slump but, if the Rockies do fall short, the run line should prove to be ample insurance. Bet the Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs on the run line.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -3 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - The Lakers stole Game 1 of this series with a win on the Warriors home court. Anthony Davis had a monster 30-point 23-rebound game in that road victory for L.A. In a must-win situation the Warriors pounded the Lakers by 27-points after hitting 48 of 95 field goal attempts (51%) and going 21 of 42 from beyond the Arc (50%). AD didn’t show up for the Lakers in Game 2 with 11-points and 7-rebounds. With this series shifting to Los Angeles, we like the Lakers in Game 3 and expect a regression from the Warriors and their insane Game 2 shooting. The Lakers defense was significantly better after the All-Star break as they allowed the 9th fewest points per game in the league. Much has been made in regard to the Warriors horrible road record this season of 13-32 SU away from home. During the regular season the Warriors had the 24th worst average road differential at minus -4.3PPG. To put that into perspective, it was barely better than Orlando or Charlotte. The Lakers were better than average at home during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and an average +/- of +3.2PPG. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five in L.A. versus the Warriors and four straight games overall when coming off a loss. We expect the Warriors road woes to continue and will support the Lakers in Game 3.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 vs. Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - We actually like this game and number more with Chris Paul out of the game for the Suns. Paul is obviously a great player, but this just opens the door for KD and Booker to take over the game offensively for the Suns. Phoenix was handled in Games 1 and 2 in Denver but bounce back at home off those two embarrassing losses. KD was especially bad in Game 2 when he shot 10 of 27 overall, just 2 of 12 from Deep. As a team the Suns shot just 40% overall and 19% from beyond the Arc. We are betting they return to form offensively at home where they shot 47% overall and 38.5% from the 3-point line. As we mentioned in our previous wager on the Nuggets, they are great defensively at home but not so much on the road. Denver allowed 1.178-points per possession on the road this season which was 22nd in the NBA. They allowed opponents to shoot 49.3% when away from home and average 115.2PPG. Denver had a negative road differential of -3.1PPG which was also the 22nd worst number in the league. Phoenix was 9th in the NBA with an average margin of victory at home of plus +4.9PPG. The Suns get it done with a huge effort in this do-or-die situation and win by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. LA Lakers, 9 PM ET - We had the Lakers in Game 1 but will now side with Golden State at home in Game 2 off that loss. This isn’t spread related but the home team that has lost Game 1 of the series has now won 15 straight times in Game 2 after the Celtics big win last night over Philly in this same scenario. The Warriors have been really good off a loss this season with a 18-3 SU home record, 14-7 ATS spread record. Golden State is 35-10 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +7.1PPG which is the 5th best average in the NBA. The Lakers are 22-23 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.0PPG. L.A. won Game 1 by 5-points but also benefited from 29 free throw attempts compared to just 6 for the Warriors. The Warriors are 3-point reliant so they typically don’t shoot as many free throws as their opponents but the disparity in Game 1 will likely be more even in Game 2. The Warriors have covered 4 of their last five when coming off a loss and are in full desperation mode here. The Lakers did lose 2 of 3 games in Memphis with the two losses coming by double-digits. Back the Warriors in this one.

#909 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a strong play for us regardless of the starting pitchers.  The Orioles have one of the top bullpens in MLB thus far with a 10-4 record and 2.99 ERA.  The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 3-5 record and 5.30 ERA.  Kansas City is an incredibly bad 2-13 in home games this season and just got one of those rare wins yesterday.  Now, Royals off a win and are 0-5 last 5 times they were off a win.  In fact, KC has had only one winning streak - and only a 2 game streak at that! - this season.  The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them.  This looks like a road rout as this one is a mismatch.  Note too that the Royals 23 losses this season have included 20 by at least a 2-run margin!  As for the pitching match-up here, Grayson Rodriguez has a 4.07 ERA this season and has not allowed any runs in 10 innings over his past two starts!  The Orioles hurler has 34 strikeouts in his 23 innings this season.  The Royals counter with Jordan Lyles and he is 0-5 with a 6.11 ERA.  In his last two appearances at home, Lyles has allowed a total of 8 earned runs plus 2 homers in each start.  Orioles enter this one with wins in 12 of 15 games.  Of 10 road wins (since winning their season opener by a single run) 9 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs.  This further adds to support for the run line here.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a very small price in the -105 money range with the Orioles.  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 2 - We like the Celtics to bounce back at home and get a big win to even this series at 1-1. James Harden turned back the clock in Game 1, scoring 45 points on 17 of 30 shooting. Harden has a long history of underperforming in the Playoffs and it’s unlikely he can repeat that performance. As a team the 76ers shot 51% overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. I’m betting the Celtics defense will adjust and run the Sixers off the 3-point line in G2. Boston was the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the NBA this season allowing just 1.115-points per possession. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season. Philly had some impressive road numbers but without Embiid they are not the same team. Boston is 19-9 SU off loss this season 10-5 SU at home. We like Boston big in this one.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors are off an emotional and physical 7-game series against the Kings which just finished on Sunday. Kerr relied heavily on his starters in that game with three (Curry, Wiggins and Green) all logging 37+ minutes. The Lakers have been off since Friday and will be well rested for this series opener. Los Angeles stole Game 1 from Memphis in the previous series and are more than capable of getting a W here. We will disregard the season statistics of the Lakers as they have been much better since the trade deadline, especially defensively. Since the All-Star Break the Lakers are allowing just 110.6PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. The Warriors are allowing an average of 113.7PPG which is 14th. The Warriors have been slightly better offensively since the ASB scoring 118.8PPG compared to 116.2PPG for L.A. The Warriors have great home numbers but given the circumstances of short rest versus the Laker 3-days rest we have to grab the points with the Underdog. The Lakers have won 3 of four meetings this season and 4 of the last six.

#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a top play for us regardless of the starting pitchers.  The Orioles have the #1 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 10-4 record and 2.86 ERA.  The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 3-5 record and 5.26 ERA.  Kansas City is an incredibly bad 1-12 in home games this season!  Baltimore is 12-3 in night games this season.  The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them.  This looks like a road rout as this one is a mismatch.  Note too that the Royals 22 losses this season have included 19 by at least a 2-run margin!  As for the pitching match-up here, Tyler Wells has a 2.79 ERA and a fantastic 0.72 WHIP!  The Orioles hurler has had great command of his pitches with 23 strikeouts against just 3 walks and opponents are hitting just .176 against him this season.  The Royals counter with Ryan Yarbrough but he had a 5.11 ERA two years ago.  Then he followed that up with a 3-8 mark and 4.50 ERA last season.  This season he is already a rough 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA!  In his last two appearances at home, Yarbrough has allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings.  Orioles enter this series with wins in 11 of 13 games.  Of 9 road wins (since winning their season opener by a single run) 8 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs.  This further adds to support for the run line here.  As for Kansas City, the Royals enter this series off a loss following a win.  What is interesting to note is the Royals have not had a standalone loss a single time this season.  Every loss leads to a losing streak.  KC has had losing streaks of 3 games 4 times, a 2 game losing streak, and a 7 game losing streak.  Look for this trend to continue here as the Royals 8-4 loss Sunday at Minnesota likely to be the start of yet another losing streak.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +110 money range with the Orioles.  Lay it! 

#964 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over San Francisco Giants, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Even if this starting pitching match-up changes we still like the Astros here.  They have home field edge and a huge bullpen edge.  The Giants bullpen ERA is the worst in the National League so far with a 6.15 ERA on the young season.  The Astros, on the other hand, are very near the best mark in the majors (2.86 ERA) as Houston's bullpen has compiled a 2.97 ERA so far this season.  Now, as far as the expected starters here, Ross Stripling has worked out of the bullpen and as a starter this season and has struggled in both roles! Stripling is winless with a 6.97 ERA thus far.  As for the Astros Luis Garcia, he had a tough start to the season but has since bounced back huge.  He has not allowed a single earned run in his last two starts plus given up just 5 hits in 13 innings over those two outings!  Garcia has struck out 23 in 18 innings over his last 3 starts!  The Giants are 4-9 on the road this season and 5-10 this season against teams with a winning record.  Houston is 6-3 in inter-league match-ups this season.  Astros have won 7 of last 10 games while San Francisco is coming off 3 straight losses including the last 2 in Mexico City.  The trip from Mexico City to Houston is not a long one but it is still a unique experience SF just had with the road trip scheduled there and this is a tough scheduling spot for them as a result.  Houston was already at home and has momentum after a win over the Phillies Sunday!  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Astros. Lay it!

#23 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Florida Panthers Puck Line (+1.5 goals -125) over Boston Bruins, Sunday at 6:38 PM ET - The Panthers have won the last two games in this series after staring a 3-1 series deficit square in the face. Florida has also won each of the last two games played at Boston so the Bruins home ice edge may not matter much here. In fact, prior to Florida's 7-5 home win in Game 6 to force this Game 7, the road team had won each of last 4 games in this series between these teams. We are not necessarily predicting the upset though here. We simply feel that this will be a very tight game because the Panthers have really turned the tide in this series. We still respect Boston at home but the Bruins are really feeling the pressure now and will likely win this game by just a 1-goal margin...if they even win the game at all. Either way, we love the value here with an underdog playing with much less pressure plus plenty of confidence after what they have accomplished in the last two games. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with road dog Florida is the play here.

#922 ASA PLAY ON 8* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-100) over Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - We like this run line play with action on the pitchers as the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in MLB thus far this season as their relievers are 3-5 with a 5.55 ERA! Kansas City had lost 9 straight games at Target Field before notching yesterday's win on a wild pitch. Minnesota had won 5 of 6 games before yesterday's loss. The Royals have won B2B games only once this entire season and their struggles are likely to quickly resume here. Minnesota is 7-2 in divisional games this season and here they are hosting a Royals team that got a rare win over them yesterday. The only team in all of MLB with a record that is worse than KC this season is Oakland. As for the starters here, Sonny Gray of the Twins is 3-0 with a 0.62 ERA in his 5 starts this season. He is holding opponents to a .192 BAA. The Royals Brady Singer has made 5 starts this season. The first one was good and the most recent one was good. However, in between those he allowed 5 or more earned runs in 3 straight starts! He has yet to produce B2B quality starts. 18 of 21 Royals losses have been by at least 2 runs. 13 of 16 Twins victories have been by at least 2 runs. You can see why we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs given those numbers. Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team at home and this match-up has dominance written all over it! We think we're getting some nice value at -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any price with the Twins. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

ASA NBA top play 10* on NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - We have waited patiently for the perfect opportunity to release a big play of this magnitude and today’s the day. The Miami Heat are coming off a stunning first round upset of the #1 seed Milwaukee Bucks. Jimmy Butler and head coach Erik Spoelstra carried the Heat to that series victory but now must face a very underrated Knicks team that is also coming off a big opening series win over the Cavaliers. Miami was one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the league this season, ranking 25th. Butler cannot sustain his round 1 numbers of 37.6PPG against a Knicks team that is allowing just 1.031-points per possession in the Playoffs. Butler and the Heat don’t have the benefit of facing the Bucks head coach Budenholzer who is incapable of making adjustments in series. Tom Thibodeau of the Knicks is one of the best defensive minds in the NBA and he will have a game plan in place to limit Butler and force someone else to beat them. Let’s not under appreciate the Knicks round 1 domination over a very good Cavs team. The Knicks held the Cavs to 94.2PPG and both home wins were by 9 and 20-points. Miami was 30th in the league in scoring this season, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Knicks offensively were much better, and they have a defense that was 13th in PPG allowed, 3rd in opponents FG% and 12th in 3PT%. The biggest advantage the Knicks will have in this game and the series is rebounding. The Knicks were 8th in defensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 25th. New York was 3rd in offensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 23rd. Cleveland had comparable rebounding numbers as the Heat and the Knicks outrebounded them by a total of 41 rebounds. In the regular season the Knicks won 3 of four with the Heat and have covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points!

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -3 vs Phoenix Suns, 8:30 PM ET - We are going to tread lightly with Game 1 of this series but do like the Nugget enough to make a small wager on them here. The Nuggets are 37-7 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Phoenix wasn’t a great road team this season with a 17-24 SU record in the regular season with a +/- of minus -0.7PPG. Granted, they didn’t have Kevin Durant for the majority of those games, but they still clearly underperformed away from home. Denver had the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at home at +1.205-points per possession. Overall, they weren’t a great defensive team, but when at home they were very good ranking 5th in DEFF allowing just 1.108PPP. Again, Phoenix was in the 12th and 13th in road OEFF and DEFF so good, but not elite. In the opener we like the home team minus the points.

ASA Top Play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:30 PM ET - We expect the Celtics to close this series out tonight in Atlanta. The Hawks won in Boston last time out and did it by shooting 47% overall and 46% from beyond the arc. Trae Young had a monster night with 38-points on 14 of 33 shooting. Boston has enjoyed a huge advantage with points in the paint this series and we full expect them to exploit that advantage again in this potential elimination game. The Celtics rank 4th in PPG scored, 14th in team FG%, 6th in 3PT% and 7th in rebounding. The Hawks have similar offensive numbers ranking 3rd in PPG, 9th in FG%, 21st in 3PT% and 10th in rebounding. The big separator comes defensively with the Celtics ranking 5th or better in PPG allowed, FG% D and 3PT% D. Atlanta allows the 26th most PPG, rank 25th in opponents FG% and 10th in 3PT%. Boston has done well when coming off a loss this season with a 18-9 SU overall record, 8-4 on the road. All 3 of the C’s wins in this series have come by 8 or more points. That trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - We like the home team to get a double-digit win in this critical Game 5. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home in the regular season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this regular season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams have met seven times this season with the home team winning six and all but one of those wins came by more than tonight’s spread. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis was up 7 points with just over 5 minutes to play in Game 4 and couldn’t close the game out. Memphis is 12-4 SU at home off a loss. Tonight, at home they will get it done.

#982 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET - The Royals snuck out a 5-4 win over Arizona yesterday but had lost 9 of 10 games before the rare win.  In those 9 losses Kansas City has scored an average of only 2.4 runs per game!  KC has lost 75% of its games this season and 15 of 18 Kansas City defeats have come by at least a 2 run margin this season.  We like this run line play with action on the pitchers as the Royals also have one of the worst bullpens in MLB thus far this season as their relievers are 2-5 with a 6.29 ERA!  Arizona's bullpen has not been great this season but they still rate a few ticks above the Royals for sure plus the Diamondbacks are the much better overall team and lineup and they are at home for this one. Arizona's relievers actually have a combined 8-3 record and hitters are just hitting .235 against them even though their ERA is a little high thus far this season. Diamondbacks pen the much better pen as you can see. Even with last night's rare win, KC has lost 9 of 11 games and their struggles are likely to continue here.  Arizona was 7-4 last 11 at home this season before the loss yesterday.  Arizona's last 11 wins have had 9 come by a margin of 2 or more runs and the Royals are 3-10 in day games this season.  Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team at home and this match-up has dominance written all over it!  As for those pichers, Ryan Yarbrough is struggling with command and has hit 6 batters in 4 innings in his last two outings and now makes a start as a bit of an opener here.  He may not last very long the way he has been throwing of late!  As for the Diamondbacks, Zac Gallen has been fantastic and after some choppiness in his first two starts, he has since dominated.  Gallen has not allowed an earned run and averaged 7 innings per start in his last 3 starts and has 29 strikeouts against 1 walk and only 7 hits in those 3 outings!  Complete dominance!  We think we're getting some nice value at -1.5 in this one and not having to lay too big a price with the Diamondbacks. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The winner of this series will be the team that is the healthiest. Right now, that team is the Bucks, even with Giannis questionable tonight. Our insiders suggest that he will play tonight, even if he doesn’t, we like Milwaukee. The Heat lost Tyler Herro to a broken hand and just lost Victor Oladipo to a knee injury. That doesn’t seem like a big injury, but it will have an impact on their depth at the guard position. Jimmy Butler also went down with a lower back injury, and we expect him to play tonight but he certainly won’t be 100%. Most importantly for this game is the fact that the Bucks are really good when coming off a loss with a 19-7 SU record and a +4.2PPG average MOV. The Bucks had the second-best road record in the NBA this season at 26-16 SU, +0.9PPG. Miami did have a solid home record of 27-14 SU during the regular season but their average +/- was just +1.2PPG. The Heat really struggled offensively against good teams as they averaged just 109.8PPG which was 28th in the league. Milwaukee is a much deeper team and will find a way to get this ‘must win’ on the road in Miami.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +7.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 3:30 PM ET - We were on the Warriors in Game 3 but will flip and side with the Kings in Game 4. This line is inflated and value currently sides with the Kings when you evaluate the lines from the first two games. Granted, Draymond Green is back but the move in the line is too drastic. Sacramento shot just 38% from the field in Game 3, 23% from Deep. Those numbers are uncharacteristically low for the Kings who were 1st in scoring this season 2nd in overall FG% shooting and 9th in 3PT%. After jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the series it was only natural for them to come back to Earth in Game 3. Now we have a solid number, a team that was 21-13 SU off a loss this season and had the 4th best average road differential at +2.1PPG. Sacramento was the better team all season long and have covered 11 of the last 14 meetings in Golden State. This will be closer than the oddsmakers think.

#952 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 12:05 PM ET - Raining in Philly this morning but it is supposed to move out of the area well before this very early game gets underway so we should be just fine in terms of getting this one in.  We like the Phillies here over the Rockies with action on the pitchers as the home field edge and better overall team gets it done against traditionally road-adverse Colorado.  However, we will mention that the expected starting pitchers are Jose Urena for the Rockies and Zack Wheeler for Philadelphia.  Taking a look at Wheeler, he struggled in his first start this season as well as his most recent start but those were both road starts.  In between these two starts he was at home and he was solid which comes as no surprise.  That's because Wheeler dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020.  As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of minimal hits allowed per innings pitched in starts in Philly.  The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a Rockies lineup here that is known for road struggles.  The Rockies were 27-54 in road games last season and 26-54 in road games the prior season!  On the year this season and last season, 75.5% of the Rockies losses were by at least 2 runs.  Phillies, including post-season, are on a hot run in home games including 25-11 last 36.  The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler over Urena (0-3, 9.82 ERA in 2023), the defending NL Champs over one of the worst road teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and laying a reasonable price in the -145 money range with the Phillies.  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - I think if you’ve followed us for any length of time you can guess how we feel about the Lakers and LeBron. If you haven’t, let’s just say we aren’t big fans. But that doesn't impact our handicapping and tonight we have to back the Lakers at home minus the short number. This series is tied 1-1 and Anthony Davis and LeBron haven’t even played that well. Back at home in Game 3 we expect big games from both of these Super Stars. Since the trade deadline the Lakers have been much better, especially defensively as they have allowed just 111.8PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. Over that same period of time, they have an average +/- of nearly +5PPG. Memphis has struggled on the road this season with a 16-25 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.7PPG. The Lakers don’t have a great home record of 24-18 SU but they do have a solid +/- of +3.3PPG. The home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings and we expect that trend to carry over here. Lay the points.

#916 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland A's, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to bounce back with big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one.  However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Andrew Heaney to start this one.  Heaney had a rough first start this season but is now building momentum with back to back solid outings and he is supported by a very strong bullpen.  As for Oakland, Shintaro Fujinami will be the likely starter for the A's here.  He is 0-3 with an 11.37 ERA this season and the Athletics bullpen has a 6.54 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors!  The Rangers bullpen has a 2.70 ERA and ranks a solid 3rd in the majors!  We expect the Rangers to bounce back from yesterday's tight loss and crush the ball at home in this one.  Oakland, before yesterday's upset win, had lost 7 straight and 13 of 14 games!  12 of the Athletics 16 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin.  The Rangers had won 8 of 10 before yesterday's loss and Oakland has been horrid for much of this season.  All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers dozen wins this season have had 11 of the 12 by a multi-run margin!  Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Rangers.  Lay it! 

#970 ASA PLAY ON 8* Los Angeles Angels -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 9:35 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as Royals going with a bullpen game in this one.  The Kansas City bullpen is dead last in MLB with the highest ERA this season so Los Angeles should have a big advantage on the mound here no matter who is pitching!  The Angels are expected to send Shohei Ohtani to start this one.  Ohtani is undefeated in his first 4 starts this season and he has been dominant ever since his rookie season in 2018.  Ohtani is sporting a 30-14 record in his career and he finished last season with an outstanding 2.33 ERA.  The Angels right-hander has been practically unhittable this season with just 6 hits allowed in 21 innings!  Taylor Clarke will be the likely starter for the Royals here but he is really just an opener.  He has a 6.75 ERA and the Royals bullpen has a 6.89 team ERA!  The Angels bullpen has a 3.27 ERA and ranks a solid 7th in the majors!  Clarke will likely work only an inning or two for KC and then Ryan Yarbrough is expected to get the bulk of the work here out of the bullpen.  He has a 9.00 ERA this season and we expect the Angels to crush the ball at home in this one.  Kansas City has lost 6 straight and 9 of last 10 games!  14 of the Royals 15 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin.  The Angels have not been great this season but KC has been horrid and all the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here.  Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one even at a price in the -135 money range with the Angels.  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - It’s well documented that Golden State is 11-32 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA, so while I’m surprised, they are down 0-2 I’m not shocked. The venue changes though and now the Warriors are at home where they had the 5th best average MOV at +8.0PPG with a 33-8 SU record. Consider this, the Warriors were 17th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.108PPP, but at home they rank 4th allowing 1.060PPP. Golden State was 9th overall in OEFF and had the 9th best overall OEFF at home but there was an improvement from 1.123PPP to 1.137PPP. Golden State has covered 4 of their last six games when coming off a loss and own a 17-3 SU home record when off a beat. These two teams have similar offensive statistics, but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. The Kings held an edge in FT’s at home 47-36 with +16 more attempts. That changes with the Warriors now the home team. Golden State has covered 37 of their last 51 home games against a team with a winning road record. Even without Draymond Green we like the Warriors by double-digits in this one.

#904 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - The Rockies have lost 8 straight games and are 2-7 away from home this season.  Annually Colorado tends to be so bad on the road.  This long-term trend has resumed this season and, entering this contest, the Rockies have lost 7 straight road games!  Colorado has averaged only 2 runs scored per game in last 6 road games.  Colorado has even been struggling at home as, overall, the Rockies have averaged only 3 runs scored per game in last 8 games - all losses - and 5 of those were home games!  The Phillies have now won 4 of 6 games and have averaged 8.5 runs scored per victory in those 4 wins.  7 of Philadelphia's 8 wins have been by at least a 3-run margin this season.  We like the run line for all the reasons above and are not overly concerned with the starting pitching match-up here.  We'll take action on the pitchers with this run line play but we will mention that Ryan Feltner is 4-12 with a 6.46 ERA in his career and struggling again this season.  The Phillies Matt Strahm, on the other hand, has a respectable 3.74 ERA in his career and has been particularly strong as a starter this season after enjoying some prior successful runs out of the bullpen for the Red Sox and Padres in past seasons.  The Phillies have been putting up some really solid offensive numbers on the board.  The way Colorado’s offense is playing, the Phillies may not need many runs to cover the -1.5.  Take Philadelphia on the run line tonight.

#62 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Edmonton Oilers Puck Line (-1.5 goals +125) over Los Angeles Kings, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - The Oilers had a 2-goal lead for the majority of game one. They were up 2-0 for much of the game. Then when the Kings cut the deficit to 1 in the 3rd period the Oilers seemingly restored order with their next goal making it a 2-goal lead again at 3-1. Inexplicably, up by 2 goals with 9 minutes to go in the game, not only did Edmonton fail to cover the puck line they did not even win the game. That one slipped away for the Oilers as Kings tied it late on a power play with about 15 seconds to go in regulation and then won it in OT - also on a power play goal. Suffice to say, the home team is out for revenge in a big way here. Edmonton has so much firepower, they will come out firing away in this game and it has the makings of a bloodbath for the road dog. Oilers will be relentless here. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Edmonton for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics, even without Ja Morant in the lineup and we like the home team to get a win in Game 2 and even the series. In Game 1 the Lakers got some huge contributions from Hachimura and Reaves who chipped in 29 and 23 points respectively. The Lakers shot unusually well at 53% overall and 43% from beyond the arc which are both well above their season averages. Not to mention, the Grizzlies had the #1 ranked FG% defense and 9th best 3PT% defense in the league this year. Expect a return to normal in Game 2. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis is 35-7 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at over +10PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers are 21-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times during the regular season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings with the Lakers at home. Grab the home team!

#58 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals +140) over Seattle Kraken, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - Every single game between these teams in the regular season was won by the road team as the visitors won all 3. Also, all 3 were decided by just a single goal. So why this play? It is because now the post-season has arrived and the cream rises to the top and we look for Avalanche and their post-season experience plus home ice edge to help lead the way to a big win here over a Seattle club in the post-season for the first time. The Kraken lost their final two games of the regular season each by a multi-goal margin. There were tight games in yesterday's first day of playoff action but the Kraken have had 11 straight games decided by a multi-goal margin and we like Colorado here. The Avalanche have won 8 of last 10 playoff games on home ice.  Home team in a blowout per our computer math model as the Avalanche carry their post-season confidence and dominance from last year right into the post-season. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Colorado for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -7.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Clippers played as well as they could in the opener and stole Game 1 in Phoenix. Tonight, we are betting the Suns will bounce back with a double-digit home win. Statistically the game was very even with the exception being offensive rebounding. The Clippers grabbed 15 O-Boards compared to just 6 for the Suns. These two teams were similar offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings this season with the Suns 14th and the Clippers 16th. In defensive efficiency the Suns ranked much better in defensive efficiency at 7th compared to the Clippers at 17th. The Suns got off to a slow start in G1 but expect a different mindset to open Game 2. Phoenix had the 7th best 3PT% numbers in the league this season without Kevin Durant playing many games for them and they should exploit a Clippers defense that was 19th in opponents 3PT% defense. Lay it with Phoenix.

ASA top play on Golden State Warriors -1 @ Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - We are not neglecting the fact Golden State was 11-31 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA. It looked to us like the Warriors went into Game 1 of this series with the mentality of just showing up would be good enough to win the game. The Kings on the other hand played at an incredible level throughout the game and were inspired by the energy from their home crowd. DeAaron Fox had a monster game for the Kings with 38-points and 5-assists. Malik Monk chipped in with 32 and went 14 of 14 from the free throw line. As a team the Kings shot 45% overall, 38% from 3 and made 26 of 32 FT’s. Despite playing at a high level the Warriors still had several great looks late in the game that could have sent it to OT. A Championship team like the Warriors will respond after that loss. Golden State has covered 4 of their last five games when coming off an “L”. These two teams have similar offensive statistics but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. We mentioned the Warriors poor regular season road number but also note the Kings are 4-7 SU with a negative +/- of -5.3PPG as a home underdog. Elite teams bounce back off a loss! Back the Warriors.

#44 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals +125) over Florida Panthers, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - The Panthers Alex Lyon got hot in goal late in the season while Sergei Bobrovsky was recovering from injury.  However, he then allowed 4 goals in the season finale versus the Hurricanes.  If he plays here that will have shaken his confidence.  The more likely scenario though is that Bobrovsky is in goal and he will be rusty after the time away due to injury.  That said, the home team is the play here.  The Bruins were so dominant in the regular season plus they are at home here and they will have the goalie edge no matter who is in goal.  Of course all of these factors are the reason that Boston is a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line here. The value with this one is on the puck line where you can get a plus money return by laying the 1.5 goals with the Bruins.  The home team won all 4 meetings between these teams in the regular season and each of the first three were decided by a multi-goal margin.  Bruins have won 15 of 16 games and the Panthers have lost B2B games entering this one.  Home team in a blowout per our computer math model as the Bruins carry their regular season dominance right into the post-season. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Boston for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

#965 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Kansas City Royals, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - Texas should have a big advantage on the mound here as they are expected to send Jacob deGrom to start this one. He had a tough first start despite 7 strikeouts and no walks but has settled in nicely in his last two starts as deGrom has 27 strikeouts against just 2 walks in his 16 and 2/3 innings this season. In his two April starts deGrom has allowed only 3 earned runs on just 9 hits in 13 innings of work. His strikeout to walk ratio is fantastic this season. Jordan Lyles will be the likely starter for the Royals here and his struggles have continued with a rough start to this season after another unimpressive season last year. He is now 66-92 in his career with a 5.10 ERA! Lyles is in trouble here against a solid Rangers team and facing them as a member of a Royals team that is again looking like one of the worst teams in the league. He have given up 9 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts and that included facing the Rangers in his most recent start. The most recent start for deGrom was against these Royals as well and he dominated in that one. That game Tuesday, in fact, featured these two starters and took 10 innings for Texas to emerge victorious but the Rangers blew a late 2-run lead in that game. The Royals lost again to the Braves yesterday and are now 1-9 in home games and 2-11 against teams with a winning record this season. The Rangers are 7-2 this season against teams with a losing record and Texas has been involved in only one 1-run game out of 15 games this season. The Royals have only had one 1-run loss in their 12 defeats this season. That being said, you can see why we are expecting a road rout decided by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a very fair price - opened up in the -120 range with the Rangers. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. LA Lakers, 3 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics and we like the home team to get a double-digit win in the opener. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times this season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 8 meetings with the Lakers at home. Lay the points!

#923 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Washington Nationals, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - Cleveland should have a big advantage on the mound here as they are expected to send Shane Bieber to start this one.  Bieber is undefeated in his first 3 starts this season and he has been dominant ever since his rookie season in 2018.  Even including that rookie year, Bieber is sporting a 55-26 record in his career and he finished last season with an outstanding 2.88 ERA.  Patrick Corbin will be the likely starter for the Nationals here and his struggles have continued with a very rough start to this season after another ugly year last season.  He is now 18-44 since the start of the 2020 season.  Just like 2022, unfortunately for Corbin, he has picked up right where he left off when he led the National League in 3 categories last season that no pitcher wants to lead in!  Corbin had 19 losses and allowed 107 earned runs and gave up 210 hits in 2022!  He is in trouble here against a solid Guardians team and facing them as a member of a Nationals team that is one of the worst teams in the league.  Corbin was one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball last season and he has been getting rocked this season as well.  Also, Washington is 1-7 in day games and 1-7 against right-handed starters and 1-7 in inter-league action - all of those stats are year to date so far this season.  The Guardians are 4-2 in day games this season and we look for them to complete the sweep here as they are already a superb 7-2 in road games this season.  Looking for a road rout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one even at a price in the -135 money range with the Guardians.  Lay it!