#743 ASA PLAY ON Morehead State +12 over Illinois, Thursday at 3:10 PM ET - This line opened Illinois -13 and has dropped to -12 so we’ve lost a little line value but still like Morehead State in this spot. Illinois just completed a 3 games in 3 days situation to win the Big 10 tourney on Sunday. Now playing on Thursday as a heavy favorite is not ideal and it very well could be a letdown spot for the Illini after winning the conference tourney. Tough to lay this many points with a defense that simply hasn’t been good vs an offense that can shoot the ball. The Illini defense ranks 98th in efficiency on the year per Bart Torvik, however since February 1st they rank 158th in that metric. They’ve allowed at least 80 points in 9 of their last 13 games. Morehead ranks 35th in the country in eFG% and they hit their 3’s at a 36% rate. They should be able to hit some 3’s in this game vs an Illinois defense that ranks 259th defending the arc. The Eagles are also a veteran team that has good size and rebounds the ball well (top 85 in both offensive and defensive rebounding). They also can get it done defensively holding opponents to 39% from the field this season which ranks as the 6th best mark in the nation. Lastly, Morehead will try and slow this game to a crawl as they rank 335th in adjusted tempo and they’ll do everything they can to keep Illinois out of transition. The Eagles have the recipe to keep this game closer than most think and we’ll take the hefty points.

#726 ASA PLAY ON North Carolina -24.5 over Wagner, Thursday at 2:45 PM ET - This is a really rough situation for a Wagner team that played in Dayton on Tuesday night and now must take the court again just 40 hours later in Charlotte. Wagner is lowest rated team per KenPom in this NCAA tourney and they are extremely thin with only 7 scholarship players. They are a terrible shooting team (ranked 358th in FG%) but shot lights out on Tuesday night in their win over Howard. The Seahawks shot 53% in the game (14% higher than their season average of 39%) and they made 47% of their 3’s (15% higher than their season average of 32%). On top of that, because they are so thin they had 3 starters play the full 40 minutes. We look for them to come back down to earth quickly on offense now facing a UNC defense that ranks 6th nationally in efficiency and is coming off a terrible performance vs NC State in the ACC Championship game (an 8 point loss as a 10 point favorite). The Heels will be ready to play after that embarrassing performance last Saturday. UNC averages 82 PPG (23rd nationally) and they are facing a Wagner offense that averages only 63 PPG (345th nationally) despite play in the NEC where over half of the teams rank below 300 in defensive efficiency. Wagner went on a nice run in the NEC tourney to get to the Dance but let’s not forget they finished in 6th place with a losing record during the regular season in that league which ranks as the 2nd worst conference in college hoops. The Heels will have the home crowd here in Charlotte and should dominate from the outset. Blowout here.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +1.5 over Michigan State, Thursday at 12:15 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Bulldogs as a slight favorite so we’ll take the value with Mississippi State. Sparty comes in winning just 2 of their last 7 games and those wins weren’t overly impressive by 4 points at home vs Northwestern who played without 2 starters and in the Big 10 tourney vs Minnesota who tanked at the end of the season losing 6 of their last 7 games. Michigan State only had one quad 1 win in conference play and that was a home win vs Illinois. They weren’t a great shooting team (11th eFG% in the Big 10) and while they do shoot it well from 3, the Bulldogs defend the arc as well as anyone in this tourney ranking 6th nationally allowing just 29%. The Spartans, normally a good rebounding team, are not adept in that stat this season ranking outside the top 140 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. That’s where Mississippi State can take advantage in this game to get some extra possessions as they are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation (21st). Mississippi State has high level wins over 2-seed Tennessee (twice) and 4-seed Auburn in SEC play. Both high level defenses facing off here, both in the top 20 in defensive efficiency, so no big edge on that side of the ball. Much is made of Izzo in March and while he is a great coach, we think that’s overblown. Much of that success was many years ago. In fact Michigan State hasn’t made it past the first weekend in 5 of the last 7 NCAA tournaments. We like the Bulldogs to win this game so we’ll take the point.

#712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana State -7 over SMU, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We expect Indiana State to come into this one with a huge chip on their shoulder after being shunned by the NCAA tournament committee. They absolutely deserved to be in the Big Dance as they rank 45th overall per Ken Pom which is higher than 30 teams that are in the NCAA tourney including a number of at large teams including Virginia, Northwestern, South Carolina, and Drake. The Sycamores were 13-1 SU at home this season and 28-6 overall. They are the best shooting team in the NATION in regards to eFG% and they rank #1 inside the arc making 62% of their shots and 11th nationally in 3 point shooting at 38.5%. On top of that, they make over 80% of their FT attempts. They lost by 4 points vs Drake (who is favored in the NCAA tourney over Washington State) in the MVC Championship but they’ve had a chance to recover as that was 10 days ago. SMU looked like they had a decent shot at the NCAA in late February (ranked 42nd per KenPom at that time) but they tanked it big time down the stretch losing 5 of their last 6 games and dropped 20+ spots in KenPom’s ratings. The Mustangs overall are ranked 66th per Bart Torvik, however since mid November this team ranks 124th so a sharp drop off over the last month as we discussed. Their defense during that stretch since mid February ranks 142nd in efficiency which will be a big problem vs Indiana State’s potent offense. ISU, on the other hand, was still playing very well down the stretch winning 15 of their last 18 games yet was excluded from the NCAA which is the direct opposite of how SMU was playing late. With Indiana State playing at home with a lot of rest we see them playing very well in this game vs an SMU team that may not be as interested limping into this road game. Lay it.

#671 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -2.5 over Virginia, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We wanted to fade this UVA team in the ACC tourney but they kept getting favorable draws which prevented us from doing that. They faced Boston College playing their 3rd game in 3 days and the Cavs squeaked by with an OT win. Then they faced an NC State team playing their 4th game in 4 days and Virginia lost that game in OT. Most didn’t think they deserved to be in the tourney and we agree. Their offense is just bad, averaging only 63 PPG and they didn’t reach 60 in regulation in either of their 2 ACC tourney games. The Cavs were held to less than 60 points in 6 of their final 8 games and they make their 3’s at a decent rate (36%) they have very little inside game ranking 310th in 2 point FG%. They are facing a solid CSU defense that led the Mountain West in 2 point FG% defense so UVA better be making their 3’s or they are in trouble. The Rams defense as a whole has been very solid this season ranking in the top 40 in defensive efficiency and they should have a huge edge offensively. They rank 13th nationally in FG% hitting 49% of their shots and CSU averages 76 PPG. Neither team is great at offensive rebounding and both protect the ball well (few turnovers) so we don’t see many extra possessions for either side. If this one is close as the spread suggests, FT shooting could loom large and CSU has a huge edge there hitting 76% of their freebies compared to 63% for Virginia. The Rams have much better adjusted efficiency margin numbers AND they played the tougher strength of schedule on top of that (65th SOS to UVA’s 77th SOS). Lay the small number with Colorado State.

#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Butler -3.5 over Minnesota, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Minnesota had a shot at the NCAA tourney in mid February but this team faded down the stretch losing 5 of their last 6 teams. They weren’t competitive in any of those 5 losses with all coming by double digits. They aren’t a deep team and their head coach Ben Johnson basically said they ran out of gas. It’s going to be tough for them to go on the road and get a win here. They’ve only won 2 road games all season and those game vs Michigan (the worst team in the Big 10) and Penn State (had a losing record). Watching them down the stretch, we’re not sure this Minnesota team will be all that fired up to play in the NIT, especially on the road, despite what they are saying in the media. Butler is much more likely to bring intensity in this one playing at home. The Bulldogs are the better defensive team (51st defensive efficiency vs 133rd for Minnesota per Bart Torvik) and they are in the top 70 nationally in offensive turnover ratio compared to the Gophs that have a much higher turnover rated ranking 215th. As you might expect looking at the turnover rate stats, we like Butler’s backcourt much better than Minnesota’s which is key. The Bulldogs have a very solid 3 guard line up (Brooks, Alexander, and Davis) that combines to average 40 PPG and almost 9 assists per game. Butler is a solid 3 point shooting team (35%) and they are facing a Minnesota defense that ranks 324th guarding the arc. As we’ve stated many times this year, it what is expected to be a close game, FT’s will most likely be key. Butler makes 79% of their FT’s (9th best nationally) and Minnesota hits just 69% from the stripe (291st nationally). Lay it with Butler.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET - We will look to fade the Nets who are returning home after a 6-game road trip that saw them go 1-5 SU with losses to the Pistons, Hornets and Spurs who are three of the worst teams in the NBA. New Orleans has had a few days off and are on a heater right now with 2 straight wins and W’s in 6 of their last seven games. They have also covered 6 of their last seven overall with three in a row on the road. In their last three road games the Pelicans have a 13-point win in Atlanta, an 8-point win in Philly and a 41-blowout in Toronto. New Orleans should enjoy success from beyond the Arc tonight with their 5th best 3PT% going up against a Nets defense that ranks 23rd in 3PT% defense. The Pelicans should also enjoy a sizable advantage on the boards with a top 10 rebounding team going up against a bottom 10 rebounding team in Brooklyn. New Orleans is 9-8 ATS as a road favorite but they do have an average MOV of +10.9PPG. The Nets are 8-9-1 ATS as a home dog with an average loss margin of minus -4.8PPG. These teams met back in January with the Pelicans winning 112-85. This time around won’t be as dramatic of a victory, but we like the Pels to win by double-digits.

#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Howard -3 over Wagner, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Howard made the Big Dance last season and they returned 4 of their top 8 rotation players from that team so they have some experience in this situation. They also added F Seth Towns who played for Ohio State last year and he’s putting up over 12 PPG. This team is decent offensively averaging 75 PPG and hitting 37% of their triples (31st nationally). That’s a problem for Wagner who has a very poor offense. Can they keep up? Wagner averages just 63 PPG (352nd nationally) and they rank 334th in offensive efficiency, 353rd in eFG%, and 358th in 2 point FG%. Those numbers are bad, especially playing in the Northeast Conference that has half of their teams ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency. Wagner has decent defensive numbers but all of the offenses in their conference rank outside the top 250 and 6 of those 10 teams rank outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency. Their opponent tonight, Howard, would easily be the best offense in the Northeast Conference. Now add in the fact that Wagner wasn’t even close to the best team in their conference, finishing with a losing record (6th place), but made a run in the NEC tourney to get here. They are banged up and thin with only 7 healthy players heading into this tourney. We’ll take the Howard Bison to win and cover on Tuesday.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs -1.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 8 PM ET - The Spurs are still playing hard despite a horrendous season in the win/loss column. The Nets still have an outside shot to make the post season but they are just 13-31 SU their last 44 games. Even in losing lately the Spurs have been competitive against playoff bound teams such as Denver, Golden State, Sacramento, Indiana, OKC and Minnesota in recent weeks. In their last ten game stretch they have three quality wins against the Thunder, Pacers and Warriors. Tonight they catch the Nets coming off a game last night in Indianapolis and this will be Brooklyn’s 6th straight road contest. Brooklyn is 10-23 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of minus -6.9PPG which is the 24th highest differential in the NBA. The Nets are 4-6-1 ATS when playing the second night of a back-t0-back this season with a negative average differential of minus -10.1PPG. They are 1-7 ATS as a Dog when playing without rest this season. San Antonio has only been favored in 5 games this season and they’ve covered 4 of them. Take the Spurs in this one.

#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON VCU -2 over Duquesne, Sunday a 1 PM ET - VCU was the better team in the A10 all season long and we’ll lay the small number here. The Rams had a higher adjusted efficiency margin vs nearly the exact same strength of schedule. Duquesne has a tendency to struggle offensively and playing their 4th game in 4 days may intensify those struggles. They have failed to top 70 points in 5 of their last 6 games and they rank 14th in the league (out of 15 teams) in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.00 PPP. They should struggle here vs a VCU defense that has held all 3 opponents in the A10 tourney to 62 points or fewer. VCU is also playing their 4th game in 4 days but they are a much better offensive team averaging 1.06 PPP on A10 play, they rank as the 2nd best 3 point shooting team in the conference and make 79% of their FT’s in league play. Both teams are obviously very motivated as the winner moves onto the Big Dance and the loser does not, however we may have a little extra incentive for VCU who lost their regular season home finale to this Duquesne team. We’ll put an asterisk by that win for the Dukes as VCU played without their leading scoring Shulga (15 PPG) who is back and put up 25 points in yesterday’s win over St Joes. The Atlantic 10 Finals has been very chalky with the favorite going 21-9-1 ATS over the last 31 seasons. We’ll call for another favorite to cover and take VCU today.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -3 or -3.5 vs NY Knicks, 10 PM ET - We like the surging Kings in this matchup and expect Sacramento to light the beam in this home contest against the Knicks. Sacramento is 4-1 SU their last five games and it includes a win over the Bucks and two against the Lakers. In their last ten games they also have wins over the Timberwolves and Clippers. New York is 3-2 SU their last five games, but the wins aren’t as impressive as they came against the Magic, struggling 76ers and a bad Portland team. There is a lot of talk about the Knicks recent defensive prowess but again those numbers are skewed based on the offenses they’ve faced. Tonight they face a Kings offense that is one of the best in the league. Sacramento is 9th in offensive efficiency at 1.178-points per possession, they rank 9th in team FG% and 7th in EFG%. In analyzing each teams last five games we see the Knicks have the #1 defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing .977PPP but they are 27th in offensive efficiency in that same 5-game stretch. Conversely, the Kings have the 3rd best OEFF in their last five games AND rank 9th in DEFF. NY is 7-10-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -2.9PPG. Sacramento has a losing spread record at home as a favorite but do own a positive average scoring differential of +1.8PPG. The Knicks are going to have a tough time keeping up offensively in this game as the Kings have too many weapons with Fox and Sabonis.

#634 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -9.5 over NC State, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - NC State has made a valiant run in the ACC tourney to this point but this is where it ends. The Wolfpack are playing their 5th game in 5 days (+ OT last night vs UVA) with a short line up of just 7 rotation players. They caught some breaks along the way with Duke, one of the top 3 point shooting teams, hitting just 5 of 20 triples 2 nights ago in a 5 point Wolfpack win. And it’s not as if NC State is a lockdown defensive team from beyond the arc ranking 263rd nationally defending the 3 point line. Last night they trailed by 6 with 45 seconds remaining in the game and UVA went onto to miss FT’s down the stretch (6 of 11 for the game) and NCSU banked in a 3 at the buzzer to send the game to OT where they won. That was despite the Pack hitting 11% higher from the field compared to UVA and making 8 more FT’s they still had to go to OT to get the win. UNC was easily the best team team in the ACC this year and they are “rested” compared to NCSU playing just their 3rd game in this tourney. The Heels rank #1 in the ACC most defensive metrics (6th nationally in defensive efficiency) and should limit the Wolfpack offense that will have tired legs. UNC should also dominate the boards, for fatigue issues and because they are the #1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the ACC which will give them extra opportunities vs NC State who ranks 13th in the ACC in defensive rebounding and now tired legs on top of that. The Heels should also win the FT battle with NC State fouling as much as any team in the ACC and UNC makes 75% of their freebies on the season. UNC won both games during the regular season by 9 & 13 points and that was under normal circumstances, not facing NC State playing their 5th game in 5 days. UNC is battling for a #1 seed in the tourney so they are still motivated and they should roll up a big win here.

#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Florida -1.5 or -2 over UAB, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We were on USF on Friday and they rolled to a huge win over East Carolina. The Bulls were in must win mode and while they move 1 step closer to the NCAA tourney, they really can’t lose this game and leave the decision in the hands of the committee on Sunday. They are still a bubble team despite their 24-6 record. They’ve been the best team in the AAC all season long and continue to get very little respect. The Bulls are the #1 three point shooting team in conference play hitting 38% of their triples. We felt they’d shoot well vs an ECU defense that doesn’t defend the arc well and they did hitting 45% (14 made 3’s). Same situation here as UAB’s defense ranks 262nd nationally (11th in the AAC) defending the 3 point line. In general the Blazers defense leaves a lot to be desired ranking 197th in efficiency. 216th in eFG% allowed, and they give up 75 PPG. They did hold Wichita State to 60 points yesterday but the Shockers were playing their 3rd game in 3 days and UAB had off since the weekend. On top of that, Wichita was not a good offensive team to begin with ranking 13th in the AAC in efficiency. On the other side, South Florida is the best defensive team in the AAC ranking #1 in pretty much every category including defensive efficiency, and eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. They were able to spread out their minutes yesterday as they led ECU by 30 at home point and 9 guys played 10+ minutes. USF had 2 losses in conference play this season and one of those was a down to the wire game @ UAB (Blazers won by 4) despite the fact UAB made 30 FT’s and just 9 for the Bulls. It was their only meeting this season giving USF even more motivation. They continue to be undervalued but just keeping winning and covering (20-7 ATS). We like USF to get another cover on Saturday.

#828 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Florida -6.5 over East Carolina, Friday at 1 PM ET - Not only does AAC regular season champ USF have massive motivation here, it’s also a terrible match up for ECU on top of that. The Bulls have had a great season with a 23-6 SU record and 16-2 in AAC play, but they are not guaranteed a spot in the NCAA tourney. In fact, most bracketologists have them out of the Big Dance unless they win this game. That in and of itself isn’t necessarily a reason to make a wager on a team, but we love the match up for the Bulls as well. They are the best defensive team in the AAC ranking #1 in pretty much every category including defensive efficiency, and eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. The Pirates offensive numbers are not good ranking dead last in the conference in efficiency averaging only 1.00 PPP, dead last in 3 point FG%, and 13th in eFG%. You get where we are going here, ECU will have major problems on offense in this game. In yesterday’s 5 point win over Tulsa, the Pirates were able to shoot 50% (nearly 10% above their season average) vs a defense that ranked near the bottom of the AAC in efficiency and eFG% allowed. That won’t happen today. USF should have plenty of success on offense vs an East Carlina defense that has allowed an average of 81.5 PPG over their last 5. When these teams met for the only time this season @ ECU, the Bulls held the Pirated to 39% from the field and won by 11 points on the road. We see a similar outcome on Friday. South Florida by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6.5 at Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - The Clippers are coming off an ugly home loss to the T’Wolves on Tuesday night and look to get back into the win column at the Bulls expense. Chicago played last night in Indianapolis making this the second night of a back-to-back for the Bulls. Not only that, but this is their 3rd game in four days and 4th in six days. Chicago is not a deep team to begin with and has the 18th worst Net Rating for their bench. The Bulls bench has the 24th rated EFG% in the NBA at 52.1%. With the added rest the Clippers starters should see extended minutes in this one and have a healthy Paul George and Kawhi Leonard for this contest. The Clippers starters have the 6th best Net Rating differential in the NBA at +4.6. Los Angeles has the 4th best offensive efficiency rating and the 13th best DEFF. In comparison the Bulls rate 18th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in OEFF. The Clippers are 12-10 ATS as a road chalk this season with an average +/- of +7.5PPG. The Bulls are 8-6-1 ATS as a home underdog but they own a negative differential of minus -2.9PPG. The Clippers start their road trip with a double digit win here.

#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -8 over USC, Thursday at 3 PM ET - Great line value here with the Wildcats. They were just favored @ USC in the regular season finale by 7.5 and now only laying 8.5 on a neutral. That’s because they lost that game @ USC and in embarrassing fashion 78-65. It was a flat spot for the Wildcats on the road after they had just clinched the Pac 12 title a few days earlier with a 23 point win over UCLA. It showed as Arizona was flat shooting just 39% and hitting only 29% from deep while producing their lowest point total of the entire season. This team was hoping to get another shot at USC and now they get that chance and you can bet Zona is ultra motivated. Not only because of that loss but they are also fighting for a #1 seed in the Big Dance. We like the way USC has been playing over the last few weeks winning 5 of their last 6 games but this is a rough situation for the Trojans. While they have been playing better this is still a team that finished with an 8-12 Pac 12 record and had a negative adjusted efficiency margin in conference play. They shot 50% in their opening round win over Washington yesterday (80-74 final) and they also hit 50% of their shots at home vs Arizona last week. Now they face a motivated Cats team that lead the Pac 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and you can bet USC won’t be shooting lights out in this game. Zona ranks in the top 16 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency while USC ranks outside the top 80 in both. The Cats had an average winning margin of +17 points in league play while USC had a dead even PPG margin. 12 of Arizona’s 15 conference wins came by double digits! Again, we like how the Trojans have been trending but we can’t pass on this line value with one of the top teams in the country who will be extremely motivated.

ASA BET ON Chicago Bulls +4 @ Indiana Pacers – 7PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Bulls and fade the Pacers who played last night in Oklahoma City and won as an underdog. The Bulls are 18-15 ATS on the road this season and have won 5 of their last seven road games outright. We like the fact that the Bulls are coming off a blowout home loss in their most recent game on Monday to the Mavericks which should have them focused here. Indiana played last night making this the second of a back-to-back and also their 3rd game in four nights. When playing without rest this season the Pacers have the worst spread record in the NBA at 2-9 ATS with an average loss margin of -8.6PPG. Indiana is also 9-11-1 ATS as a home chalk this season. Both teams have negative point differential since the All-Star break with the Pacers at minus -1.9PPG, the Bulls are minus -3.4PPG but clearly both of those differentials would net a cover in this one. Indiana has some depth concerns with Mathurin out for the season and the road team has covered the spread in both meetings this season. Grab the points.

ASA BET ON ORLANDO MAGIC -7 vs Brooklyn Nets – 7 PM ET - We are on the Magic in this one. Orlando has the best spread record at home as a favorite this season at 13-3 with an average Margin of Victory in those games of +13.4PPG. Overall at home the Magic are 20-9 ATS with an average +/- of +6.7PPG. The Nets on the other hand are 10-20 SU away from home, 11-19 ATS which is the 2nd worst road spread record in the league. When playing on the road, the Nets lose by an average of -6.3PPG. The Magic look to bounce back after 2 straight losses, with the most recent being at home to Indiana. Brooklyn meanwhile is coming off a huge upset road win over the Cavs and should revert back to their losing ways tonight. The home team has covered 5 straight in this series.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Texas -4.5 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Texas is the more well rounded team in this match up and our power ratings have the Horns favored by 6.5 in this game so we like the value. Texas is ranked in the top 55 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they hold a huge edge on the offensive end of the court here. They rank 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency and KSU ranks 143rd. The Longhorns rank in the top 55 in both FG% and 3 point FG% while the Cats rank 255th and 297th in those stats. KSU does play high level defense however they just don’t put up enough offense away from home to come up with wins. In fact, they won only 1 road game the entire season in Big 12 play and that was @ West Virginia who was by far the worst team in the conference this season. Their PPG numbers drop by nearly 8 points on the road and they average only 0.96 PPP away from home. Texas had 4 Big 12 road wins and blew a 14 point lead @ Baylor late in the season or they would have had another one. The Horns offensive numbers stay fairly consistent on the road as they average 77 PPG at home and 75 PPG away from home. They also put up a solid 1.063 PPP on the road this season. Not only is Texas the much better offensive team they should get more opportunities on that end of the floor as well. That’s because KSU is a turnover machine and a poor defensive rebounding team. The Cats rank 349th in offensive turnover rate (and Texas is solid at creating turnovers) and they rank 272nd in defensive rebounding percentage (and Texas is a solid offensive rebounding team). Those 2 things should lead to a number of extra possessions for the Longhorns. Should UT need to close this one out late with FT’s they are hitting 77% in conference play, 2nd in the Big 12. These 2 met about a month ago and Texas won by 6, however they led by 12 with under 3:00 minutes remaining in that one. This is a pretty short number for Texas and we’ll lay it.

#671 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC -3 over Washington, Wednesday at 3 PM ET - USC has played as well as anyone in the Pac 12 down the stretch. They were just 3-10 in conference play on February 10th and then caught fire and won 5 of their last 7 games with their only 2 losses coming vs Colorado in double OT and vs Washington State by 3 points and the Trojans led both of those games by double digits in the 2nd half. Those 2 teams are rated #2 and #3 in the Pac 12 behind only Arizona who still sits as a top 10 team nationally and a likely #1 or #2 seed in the Big Dance. Speaking of the Wildcats, USC just rolled Arizona by 13 points to close out the regular season. Since mid February, USC is ranked in the top 20 nationally in overall efficiency per Bart Torvik. These 2 just met 11 days ago and USC beat Washington on the road 82-75. The Trojans led that one by 15 points with under 6:00 minutes to go while the Huskies largest lead of the game in that game was just 4 points. UW led that game, their home finale so motivation was high, for just 2 minutes and that’s it. That was despite the Huskies making 5 more 3 pointers than USC so outscoring them by 15 points from beyond the arc. We don’t see anything changing on a neutral court just 11 days after USC dominated Washington on the road. Lay the small number.

#615 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -1.5 over Boston College, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Hmmm? Miami enters this game with 9 straight losses, facing a BC team that beat them twice this year yet the Canes opened as a favorite? Strange line and we agree Miami should be laying points in this one. These 2 faced off just last week and BC pulled the upset @ Miami. The Canes lost starting G Pack about 15 minutes into that game and he didn’t return. He didn’t play in the regular season finale @ FSU but we’re hearing there is a chance he plays here. This is a winning Miami program that simply has had a poor season. Entering the year they had a 29-9 SU record in ACC play the previous 2 seasons, they won the ACC last year, and they went to the Final 4. They returned 3 starters and some key reserves from that team along with head coach Larranaga who has nearly 1,200 career wins. They were expected to have a very good season but finished just 6-14 in ACC play. We expect them to play well in this tourney with new life and shot to make the NCAA tourney if they run the table. The Canes have a veteran post season team and played pretty well against the top teams in the ACC taking North Carolina to the wire twice (lost by 3 & 4 points), beat Clemson, and took Wake Forest to OT on the road where the Deacs were 16-1 this season. While Miami is a winning program that simply had a poor season, BC is not used to winning. They are 17-14 this year but haven’t had a winning season since 2018. In ACC play they finished 8-12 despite playing the easiest strength of schedule in league play facing each of the top 4 teams only one time (all losses). We don’t think BC can beat this rejuvenated Miami team 3 times in one season. Lay the small number on Tuesday.

#859 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Thomas +3.5 over South Dakota State, Monday at 7 PM ET - Our power ratings have these 2 teams rated dead even on a neutral court so the value is absolutely with St Thomas in our opinion. The reason SDSU is favored by 3 points here is they beat St Thomas in both games this season and won the Summit League with a 12-4 record although both of these teams finished 20-12 overall. If we take a closer look at their match ups this year, both games went to the wire with SDSU winning by 1 and 5 points. Statistically the Jackrabbits shot lights out but still struggled to pull away and win by margin. SDSU hit well over 50% in both games and combined to make a ridiculous 57% of their shots in those games including almost 52% from deep. That’s around 10% higher than their season average and almost 18% higher than their season long 3 point average. St Thomas combined to shoot 46% in those 2 games (a little below their season average) and from beyond the arc they were 22 for 63 (35%) which is also just below their average. So SDSU shot lights out and St Thomas shot below their averages yet both games came down to the wire. The largest lead in either game was 9 points and both held that advantage at some point in each game. AEM was advantage STM despite SDSU winning the league. The Jackrabbits held a +4 FT’s made advantage in those games combined and the rebounds were nearly dead even. St Thomas had better adjusted efficiency margins in conference play despite the Jackrabbits winning the league. If South Dakota State comes back to earth shooting wise in this game, we’re confident that St Thomas will win. If not, we still expect a close game similar to the first 2 and the points are worth taking.

ASA TOP PLAY ON #518 ORLANDO MAGIC -1.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 6:10 PM ET - The Magic are coming off a humbling game on Friday night in New York as they were beaten handily 74-98. That loss snapped a 5 game winning streak and we expect them to bounce back here. Orlando has quietly been playing fantastic basketball with a 13-4 SU record in their last seventeen games. The Magic have been a money printing machine at home as a favorite with a 13-3 ATS record while covering 7 in a row. Not only have the Magic been covering at home as a Chalk but they’ve done it in impressive fashion with an average +/- of +13.4PPG in those games. Indiana comes into this game off a home loss to the Timberwolves and are 2-4 SU their last six games overall. The Pacers have been average on the road this season with a 15-14-1 ATS record. In their last twelve road games they have just 5-covers. The difference between these two teams is obvious as the Magic rely on the 3rd best defense in the league, while the Pacers are anchored by the 2nd most efficient offense. In the two regular season meetings thus far the Magic and their defense have won twice, both in Indiana, by 12 and 7-points. We will back the better defense again today.

#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +3.5 over Michigan State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET - Two teams heading in opposite directions facing off in Bloomington on Sunday. IU has played their best basketball of the season over the last few weeks winning 3 straight games as underdogs including 2 on the road. Their most recent home game was a solid win over a good Wisconsin team and the Hoosiers were 4 point dogs in that game. They have high level talent along their front line with Ware (former McDonald’s All American) and Reneau who are both peaking at the same time. Those 2 have combined for 97 points and 51 rebounds in those 3 consecutive wins. MSU has lost 3 of their last 4 with their only win during that run coming at home on Wednesday night vs a banged up Northwestern team. That wasn’t an overly impressive 4 point win over a Wildcat team that played without 2 starters. Sparty has been a poor road team this season to say the least winning only 3 of their 9 Big 10 road games. Those 3 road wins have come against Michigan (the worst team in the conference), Maryland, and PSU who all have losing Big 10 records and have a combined mark of 18-39 in Big 10 play. MSU is ahead of the Hoosiers by only 1 game in conference play and IU actually has the better eFG% numbers on offense and defense in Big 10 games. This is also a revenge game for the Hoosiers as they lost their most recent match-up with the Spartans (Feb of 2023). Indiana was the ranked team in that match-up but it was the first home game for Michigan State since the on-campus shooting and they had an inspired game. The Hoosiers did win the last time they hosted the Spartans and we like Indiana getting points in their home finale on Sunday.

#700 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon -3.5 over Utah, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We played against Utah on Thursday night @ Oregon State, the worst team in the Pac 12, and picked up a win with the Beavers rolling 92-85 as a 7.5 point dog. The game wasn’t even that close as OSU (5-14 record in the Pac 12) led by 17 with just 4:00 minutes remaining. That continues Utah’s terrible run on the road where they are now 1-8 both SU & ATS in Pac 12 play with their only win coming by 1 point @ UCLA. They average a whopping 11 fewer points on the road compared to at home (84 PPG at home / 71 PPG on the road) and as you might expect their efficiency drops from 1.28 PPP at home to just 1.00 on the road. It’s not only the offense that has drastically differing results on the road the Utes defense allows 67 PPG and home and 80 PPG on the road this season. They allow just 0.90 PPP at home and that rises to 1.12 PPP on the road which is just a huge difference. They’ll get an angry Ducks team on Saturday as Oregon just lost here vs Colorado (2nd best team in the conference per KenPom ratings) by a final score of 79-75. The Buffs shot lights out at 55% in that game and 47% from 3 point land yet it was a 1 point game with 30 seconds remaining. Oregon had a 3 point shot to tie with 6 seconds left but missed. That loss dropped the Ducks to 12-3 SU at home this season with their 3 losses coming vs Arizona, Colorado, and Washington State, the 3 best teams in the conference. In their first meeting @ Utah the Ducks lost 80-77 despite the Utes hitting 50% of their shots and 44% of their triples and the host attempted twice as many FT’s (22 to 11). Despite those impressive offensive numbers, the Utes largest lead of the game was 6 points and it took 2 FT’s in the final seconds to salt the game away. Speaking of FT’s, now back at home we expect Oregon to have the edge at the stripe where they’ve hit 75% in league play (2nd in the Pac 12) while Utah has made only 60% of their freebies (dead last). These 2 teams have met 10 times in Oregon with the Ducks winning 9 of those games. We’ll fade the team that can’t win on the road vs the Ducks in their home finale and off a rare home loss.

#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke -4.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - These 2 met on February 3rd with UNC pulling out a 93-84 win. In that game the Heels shot 50% overall and attempted 14 more FT’s and they held the Blue Devils a normally to just 8 assists and turned them over 11 times (Duke 18th in assist to turnover ratio so an aberration). Since that loss, Duke has been the better team winning 8 of 9 games with their only loss coming @ Wake Forest by 4 points. Since that they rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they’ve allowed only 1 of their last 9 opponents to reach 70 points. Since Feb 1 the Devils rank 4th nationally in overall efficiency behind only UConn, Tennessee, and Arizona. This team is playing at the top of their game right now and they’ve been waiting for this rematch. The Tar Heels have shown some struggles as of late losing 3 of their last 10 games and struggled in home wins vs Miami (won by 4 but Miami played without their starting PG) and NC State (won but trailed by double digits in the 2nd half). UNC has played only 1 road game since February 13th and they beat a struggling Virginia team in that game but scored only 54 points. Duke has a solid edge shooting the ball ranking 22nd in FG% compared to 170th for UNC (10th in the ACC in eFG%) and in the Heels 9 true road games they are shooting under 40% from the field. 5 of UNC’s 6 losses have come in road/neutral games and they average 12 PPG less on the road than they do at home. A win by Duke here moves them into a tie for 1st place with UNC and we like this red hot Devils team to get their revenge at home on Saturday vs the arch rival.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Antonio Spurs +10.5 at Sacramento Kings 10 PM ET - Even with big man Wembanyama sidelined for this one, we like the Spurs here and the double digit points who are in a very favorable scheduling situation. The Kings are coming off a huge showdown with the Lakers in L.A. on Wednesday night and are also playing their 3rd game in four days. They have lost two straight at home to the Bulls and Heat. The last time the Kings won at home was against this Spurs team by 5-points 127-122. San Antonio has been playing under the radar since the All-Star break with a 2-5 SU record, but they have covered 5 of seven. The visitor in this series has covered 5-straight games. Since the ASG these two teams have very similar Net Ratings with the Kings ranking 15th at -2.1, the Spurs are 23rd at -2.3. The big reason the Spurs have played well recently has been the improvement of their overall defense. In their last five games the Spurs are allowing 1.140-points per possession, which is 13th in the league. The Kings defense ranks 21st in DEFF over that same 5-game span. There was a time when the Kings home court was incredible but this season they are closer to average with a 16-11 SU record and an average +/- of +0.6PPG. Grab the points with San Antonio.

ASA TOP PLAY ON Denver Nuggets +1.5 at home vs. Boston Celtics, 10 PM ET - This could very well be a Finals preview and should be a great game. We will side with the home team Nuggets though as their home numbers are just too much to overlook. Both teams come into this game off a recent loss. The Celtics blew a big lead to the Cavs on Tuesday and lost 104-105. The Nuggets trailed the Suns at home from most of the game before outscoring them 21-12 in the 4th to send the game to OT where they eventually lost. Since the start of last season, the Nuggets are 68-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. They have only been home underdogs 4 times and they won all four by an average of +10.5PPG. Boston is really good as a road team with a 50-29 SU away record their last 79 away. If you compare every key statistic between these two teams you find they are very close offensively and defensively, but we like the home court advantage of Denver. The World Champs gets this win on Thursday.

#797 ASA TOP PLAY ON Northern Kentucky +7.5 over Wright State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These 2 just met last Saturday and now they face off in the Horizon League Tournament. In their game last Saturday, Wright State played at home (same scenario as tonight) and they won by 6 points over NKU. The Raiders shot 54% in the game (51% for Northern Kentucky) and outscored the Norse by 18 points for the 3 point line (+9) and from the FT line (+9) and even with that big advantage the game went to the wire. NKU was playing great basketball heading into that game winning 6 of 7 prior to Saturday’s tight loss. Wright State finished 1 game ahead of Northern KY in the Horizon League with a 13-7 record (12-8 for NKU) and this line is set to high due to that + the fact that WSU won both regular season meeting (by 6 & 7 points). The Raiders are a terrible defensive team, one of the worst in the country, ranking 343rd in defensive efficiency, 351st in eFG% allowed, and 355th in PPG allowed giving up 80 PPG. Really tough to lay this many points in a win or go home situation vs a team that is much better defensively. NKU ranks 2nd in the Horizon League in defensive efficiency and 3rd in eFG% allowed. The Norse allow just 71 PPG which is 2nd best on the conference (league games) while Wright State’s defense is giving up 82 PPG in conference play (last in the league). According to statistics from KenPom.com, when the “better team” (in this case, Wright State) won both previous matchups (which they did), the third game becomes a true toss-up — the better teams win only about 49.3% of the time in these cases. Getting 7.5 points is a great buffer here in a game we think is close. Take the points with Northern Kentucky.

#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Hawaii -6.5 over Cal State Northridge, Wednesday at 11:59 PM ET - After a 4 game winning streak in early February, CS Northridge is trending down losing 4 of their last 5 games and the alarming part is all 4 losses came at home. 3 of those 4 losses came by double digits and now they make the tough travel to Hawaii to take on a team that has won 7 of their last 10 games and currently ranks (per KenPom) as the 4th best team in the conference. The Rainbow Warriors currently sit in 5th place in the league and are fighting for a top 4 finish which would give them a bye in the conference tournament. During this 10 game stretch, Hawaii has faced 3 of the 4 teams that sit ahead of them in the Big West standing and they’ve beaten all 3 by 17, 8, and 8 points. They’ve played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet still have much better adjusted efficiency margin numbers when compared to CS Northridge. The Matadors have a losing record in conference play and their offense has generated less than 1.00 PPP (conference games) while ranking dead last in 3 point FG%. These 2 met back in January and CSN pulled the upset beating Hawaii as a 2 point dog. The Rainbow Warriors shot just 33% in that game and made only 13 FT’s compared to the Matadors 25 out of 30 from the stripe (80%). Not to be expected here on the road from a Northridge team that ranks last in the Big West making only 67% of their freebies. The Matadors have traveled to the islands to play Hawaii 11 times in their history and lost 9 of those games. We see double digit Hawaii win late on Wednesday Night.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10 PM ET - This line is telling us Giannis will not be in the lineup for the Bucks tonight which means we will back the Warriors at home minus the points. The Bucks have clearly seen a resurgence since the All-Star break with 6 straight wins and a defense that ranks best in the NBA over that time period. As a Bucks fan I temper my enthusiasm though as two of those wins came against Charlotte, one versus a struggling Bulls team and one against Philly who had injury issues. The Warriors are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss in Boston on Sunday in a National TV showing. I like Golden State to bounce back with a concentrated effort at home. The home team in this series has dominated with 6-straight wins including the Bucks getting a W on Jan 13th at home 129-118. You might be a bit surprised to know that the Bucks are 3-5 ATS as an underdog with a negative average differential in those games of -10.5PPG. Golden State has dominated Eastern Conference teams this season with a 16-7 SU record and a +/- of +3.3PPG. Given the circumstances we like the Warriors minus the short number.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - These two teams recently met in Indiana which saw the Pacers win at home 133-111 as a +2-point dog. Based on that spread this line should have the Mavericks as a much bigger favorite. The big difference in that Pacer win was a fantastic shooting night at 56% overall and a +8-rebound differential. The Pacers rely heavily on their offense and outscoring opponents but since the All-Star break they have seen a significant drop in their Offensive Net Rating and overall shooting percentages. For the season the Pacers rank 1st in the league in team FG% at 50%, but in their last five games that number has dipped to 47.4% which would rank them 13th. Also, in their last five games their 3PT% had dropped to 32% which is the 25th lowest percentage in the NBA over this recent 5-game period. We like Dallas to get a measure of revenge here from the recent L in Indianapolis. Dallas is also coming off a loss at home to Philadelphia on Sunday in a national TV game. Prior to Sunday’s home loss, the Mavs had won 4-straight at home with two of those wins coming against Phoenix and OKC. The Mavericks are 16-10 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- in those games of +3.8PPG. When laying points this season the Mavs have a 21-14 ATS record with a plus/minus of +5.8PPG. Indiana is 9-9-1 ATS as a road dog with a net differential per game of minus -9.6PPG. Dallas will find their shot tonight against a Pacers defense that is last in the league in opponents FG% allowed at 50.5%. Lay the short number with Dallas.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia 76ers -2 at Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - You couldn’t ask for a much better situation with a bet on the Sixers here laying a short number against the Nets. Philadelphia looked good in their win over the Mavericks on Sunday and were relatively healthy without Embiid who is out for the foreseeable future. The Sixers didn’t shoot overly well against the Mavs but still put up 120 points on 45% shooting overall and just 30% from Deep. This Philly team is 2-3 SU their last five games but the two losses came to the Celtics and Bucks who are playing extremely well at the moment. Now they step down in class against a 24-36 Brooklyn team that also has a losing home record. The Nets are coming off a game against the Grizzlies on Monday making this the second night of a back-to-back. Brooklyn is 2-7 SU this when playing without rest and have an average negative differential in those games of -15PPG. This will also be the Nets 3rd game in four days. The 76ers had beaten the Nets 9 straight times before their most recent game which was a blowout loss on their home court. Paybacks are a bitch and that’s exactly what happens here tonight.

#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -2 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Illini have 1 home loss in Big 10 play and that was with Shannon (22 PPG) out. He is back and putting up huge numbers to say the least averaging 26.5 PPG over his last 7. Speaking of Shannon, he also missed the game @ Purdue, a game the Boilers won at home by 5 points. Since his return the Illini offense has taken it to another level ranking 1st nationally in offensive efficiency since February 1st putting up a 1.34 PPP. The Boilers have a 2 game lead in the Big 10 so they are fairly safe even if they lose this game. They have 3 conference losses, all the road, vs Nebraska (34th nationally), Northwestern (46th), and Ohio State (53rd) and they now face an Illinois that is far superior to all of those teams (ranked 12th nationally per KenPom). In Big 10 play, Purdue has played only 2 teams that rank in the top 40 (Wisconsin & Nebraska) and they’ve only faced one top 50 team period since February 4th. That was Michigan State on Saturday and that was just a 6 point home win. The Boilermakers have been winning some tight games with only 2 double digit wins over their last 9 games. We feel they are more than due to get bounced and playing the 2nd best team in the conference on the road is where it will happen in our opinion. The emotion will be high in Illinois’ final home game and biggest home game of the year so we’ll call for the win and cover.

#646 ASA PLAY ON Florida -1.5 over Alabama, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Bama in a tough spot here playing their 4th game in 11 days with 3 of those games coming on the road. The Tide were knocked off at home on Saturday vs Tennessee which was a huge game that was a battle for 1st place in the SEC. With the home loss Bama it will now be really tough for Bama to catch the Vols with a 1 game deficit with 2 games remaining and they lost both games to Tennessee this year so they’d lost the tie breaker as well. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if Alabama is a bit flat in their final road game after that disappointing loss on Saturday. They’ve shown to be vulnerable on the road with 3 SEC losses away from home and their best conference win was @ Mississippi State who sits at 8-8 in league play. Every other team they beat on the road has a losing conference record. Florida is also off a loss @ South Carolina on Saturday. It was a game the Gators led by double digits in the 2nd half, outrebounded and outshot (48% to 47%) the Gamecocks but were -11 made FT’s in the 6 point loss. Now back at home where they are 13-1 SU with their only loss coming by 2 points to Kentucky. Their average score at home is 87-71 so winning by +16 PPG. These 2 just met @ Alabama in late February and the Gators gave the Crimson Tide their toughest conference home game of the season (minus Bama’s home loss to Tennessee on Saturday). The Gators led for much of the game including by 10 points with under 8:00 minutes remaining in the game but lost 98-93 in OT. In that loss, the Gators led at half and Bama didn’t take their first lead of the 2nd half until 4:00 remaining in the game. Prior to their game vs Florida, the Crimson Tide were undefeated at home in SEC play winning by an average margin of +21 PPG. Catching Florida in this spot as a home dog (line opened Bama -1) is some solid value in our opinion. The Gators have been a home dog only 1 other time this year vs a very good Auburn team and Florida rolled the Tigers 81-65. Even with the line having flipped to Florida as a small favorite at the time of this posting, we’ll call for the Gators to get a home win on Tuesday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas +7 over Baylor, Monday at 9 PM ET - Too many points to give a team we feel has a shot at the outright upset. Texas has won 4 of their last 6 games with their only losses coming @ Houston and @ Kansas. The Horns have been a solid road team in Big 12 play with a 4-4 SU record including outright upsets @ TCU, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. They have 2 very solid veteran guards in Hunter and Abmas who both average double digits and combined to average 9 assists per game. Texas is one of the top shooting teams in the Big 12 (3rd in shooting %) and they are facing a Baylor defense that struggles on the defensive end ranking 13th in the Big 12 in FG% allowed and 276th nationally. It's going to be tough for the Bears to pull away from this talented offense with a defense that simply isn’t very good right now. Baylor is coming off a huge home game vs Kansas which turned into an 8 point win but they haven’t been unbeatable at home in league play this year. They already have 2 home losses in Big 12 play and only 1 of their 6 home wins in league play have come by double digits. Only 2 of their 10 Big 12 wins have come by 10+ points so for the most part Baylor is playing close games in conference play. This line opened -7 and if it stays there, this will be tied the largest home favorite Baylor has been in conference play this season and that should not be the case facing a balanced Texas team that ranks in the top 40 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The PPG margin in Big 12 play for these 2 teams is nearly identical with Baylor at +3 PPG and Texas at +1 PPG. Just too many points in game we think will go to the wire.

#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nebraska -8 over Rutgers, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Huskers just continue to roll at home and we’ll stick with that trend here. They are 17-1 SU at home with their only loss coming in non-conference play vs Creighton. In Big 10 play they are 9-0 both SU & ATS at Pinnacle Bank Arena with their average margin of victory being +14 points per game. The only 3 teams in conference play they did not beat by double digits at home were Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Northwestern. They are facing a Rutgers team that has all kiinds of trouble offensively and is just 2-6 SU on the road in Big 10 play. The Scarlet Knights rank dead last in conference play in scoring, offensive efficiency, and eFG%. On the road this team is shooting just 39% and scoring 65 PPG on just 0.926 PPP. That shouldn’t change here vs a surprising Nebraska defense that is allowing 65 PPG at home on just 38% shooting. Offensively the Huskers thrive at home averaging 80 PPG and they’ve hit at least 73 points in 15 of their 18 home games this season. That’s not a good sign for Rutgers who struggles to score as we mentioned. In their first meeting this season @ Rutgers, the Cornhuskers blew a 12 point 2nd half lead and lost in OT. Nebraska shot just 38% in that game and we expect them to shoot much better at home on Sunday where their shooting percentage is 3% higher than it is in their road games. The host should also have a solid advantage at the FT line where they shoot 78% in conference play compared to 68% for Rutgers. This is a must win for Nebraska’s tourney hopes and we’ll lay it.

ASA top play on Charlotte Hornets +8.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 6 PM ET - This is a bad number and does not reflect how much better the Hornets have been since the trade deadline. In fact, the oddsmakers have over-adjusted this price because of the Hornets 3 recent losses but let’s not forget that those L’s came to the surging Bucks (twice) and a 76ers team in desperation mode. In their last 10 games the Hornets have the 10th best Net Defensive rating and they’ve covered 6 of their last nine games. In their most recent loss they didn’t have starter Brandon Miller their second leading scorer but he’ll be back in the lineup Sunday. The Raptors on the other hand lost Scottie Barnes their best player who is averaging 19.9PPG and 8.2 rebounds per game. Toronto has not been good defensively either, ranking 22nd in Net Defensive rating in their last 10 games. The Raptors are 8-8 ATS as a home favorite with an average +/- of +1.0PPG which is clearly not enough of a margin to cover this number. Charlotte has a negative differential on the road of -12.4PPG but those numbers mainly came from before the All-Star game. The Hornets defense will keep them in this one, especially with Barnes on the bench in street clothes.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +7.5 vs Miami Heat, 5 PM ET - Betting on or against the Jazz has not been kind to us but we have a short memory and will back Utah in this situation against the Heat. Orlando play at Orlando on Thursday and lost a pretty tight game by 8-points. They are in Florida and have a big scheduling edge here. Miami is home for the first time after a 6-game road trip which finished on Thursday night in Denver. The Heat are 15-13 SU, 12-16 ATS at home this season with an average MOV of +0.1PPG which is bottom 10 of the NBA. Utah on the road this season is 9-20 SU and haven’t been very good but this is a great situation for them to stay close with the Heat. The Jazz are 16-15-1 ATS when coming off a SU loss with an average net differential of minus -3.9PPG. It’s a tough scheduling situation for Miami so let’s grab the points with the Jazz.

#688 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Auburn -9 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Triple motivation for the home team Tigers in this game. First, they are off a loss @ Tennessee on Wednesday night, second they lost their most recent home game vs Kentucky (their only home loss of the season, and they lost @ Mississippi State in January scoring only 58 points on 34% shooting, their worst offensive performance of the season. We look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder in this game at home where they average 85 PPG on 1.160 PPP. The Tigers are 13-1 SU at home (9-4-1 ATS) with all 13 of those wins coming by double digits. They simply blow teams out at Neville Arena winning by an average of score of 85-65. MSU will have a tough time bouncing back here as they put a lot of emphasis on their home revenge game vs Kentucky on Tuesday night and lost by 2 blowing a 13 point 2nd half lead. The Bulldogs are a poor road team (2-6 SU) with their only 2 road wins coming @ Mizzou and @ LSU, 2 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC. When the Dogs have had to step up in competition on the road it hasn’t been pretty. They’ve faced 4 teams in SEC play that currently sit ahead of them in the conference standing and lost all 4 by an average of 16 PPG. MSU is the worst team in the league at turning the ball over (19% of their possessions in SEC play are turnovers) and they are facing an Auburn team that creates havoc defensively (2nd in the SEC in defensive TO% and 6th nationally in defensive efficiency). We also expect the Tigers to have a huge advantage in points at the FT line as they hit 77% of their freebies in league play while MSU makes only 62% of their FT’s. We don’t think the Bulldogs can keep up here and we like the motivated Tigers to roll up an easy win, as they usually do at home.

#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Charlotte -3 over South Florida, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Love this spot for Charlotte. They’ve had a full week off since losing back to back road games to fall to 11-4 in AAC play (2nd place). On Saturday they host the USF Bulls who are 14-1 in league play and have a full 3 game lead with 3 games to play so they are pretty much assured of winning the AAC regular season title. We feel USF is vastly overvalued because of their record but the fact is, they’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play and they have the 5th best adjusted efficiency margin in the AAC and KenPom has them ranked as the 5th best team in the league as well despite their record. The Bulls just had a huge home game topping SMU which gave them at least a tie for the conference title and they just entered the AP top 25 for the first time EVER. While they do have a 6-3 SU road record, they haven’t been great squeaking by lower tier AAC teams (Temple, Rice, and UTSA – combined 13-33 SU AAC record) all by 6 points or fewer. The 2 solid road wins they have had an asterisk by each @ Memphis winning by 2 (trailed by 20 in the 2nd half) and @ UNT by 5 (who played without one of their top players CJ Noland). They have played only 2 of the top 7 teams in the conference on the road thus far. After basically clinching the AAC title and squeaking into the top 25, we look for a letdown from USF in this game vs a very good Charlotte team that is desperate off 2 losses. Prior to that 2 game losing stretch, the 49ers had won 11 of 12 games. They are still battling 4 other teams (5 teams for 3 spots) to finish in the top 4 and receive a double bye in the AAC tourney. The 49ers are 12-1 SU at home this year and 7-0 in conference play. Going back to the start of last season they are 23-5 SU at home. When these two met 1 month ago @ USF, the 49ers lost by 3 points but dominated the vast majority of the game. Charlotte blew a 17 point lead in that game and USF’s largest lead of the game was 3 points which was the final margin. The Bulls FIRST lead of that game came with 29 seconds remaining! We like Charlotte to get their revenge at home in this one after dominating the first meeting.

#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -4.5 over Marquette, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - The Blue Jays are playing their home finale here and trying 2 catch Marquette for 2nd place in the Big East. The Golden Eagles sit 2 games ahead but they have this game and a game vs UConn yet on the docket so Creighton definitely has a chance to catch them if they win this game. It looks like Marquette will be without their starting PG Tyler Kolek (15 PPG & 7.5 APG) who is one of the top players in the Big East. He injured his oblique muscle on Wednesday and wasn’t able to practice on Thursday. When these 2 met in Milwaukee the Golden Eagles squeaked out a 72-67 win with Kolek and Sean Jones (also injured and out for this game) combined to score over 40% of Marquette’s points that night (30 points). Two keys in that game were aberrations in our opinion with Marquette, a poor rebounding team, +9 on the boards. The Golden Eagles also attempted 10 more FT’s but they score the fewest points in the league from the FT line. If those 2 things go Creighton’s way at home, like we think they will, this should be a cover. The Jays offense is nearly unstoppable at home averaging 86 PPG while hitting 52% of their shots. They are 13-2 at home this year (26-4 SU since the start of last season) with their 2 losses coming by 1 & 2 points and they topped the Big East’s beat team, UConn, here by 19 points in February 20th. Marquette lost on the road to the UConn team by 28 points just 3 days prior to that. This is Marquette’s first road game since February 17th and with the Golden Eagles being without much of their firepower in this game, we just don’t think they can keep up with Creighton. Lay it.

ASA top play 10* on Chicago Bulls +3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10 PM ET - The Bucks are playing 2nd of a B2B as they played in Charlotte on Thursday and have to travel. This is Milwaukee’s 5th game in 8 days and fatigue will be a factor. Chicago is at home and coming off an impressive win against the Cavaliers who rate very similar to the Bucks right now in our overall Power Ratings. The Bulls have a 64.3% cover rate when having a rest advantage with a 9-5 ATS record and a +1.9PPG average MOV in those games. Milwaukee is 9-13 ATS as a road favorite this season. The Bulls are 8-4-1 ATS as a home underdog. The Bucks struggled to defend this season but in their last five games they have the 8th best defensive efficiency rating but a byproduct of playing great defense has led to a regression in their offensive efficiency which has dropped to 18th compared to 5th on the season. The Bulls are around league average in both OEFF and DEFF but they defend much better at home allowing 1.123PPP which is 8th best in the league. The home team has won 6 of the last 8 meetings including 3-0 this season. In fact, the last two meetings this season have both gone to OT with the Bulls winning one of those 120-113 on this court. Grab the home dog here.

#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas State +3.5 over Troy, Friday at 8:15 PM ET - Couple key things at play in this game. First the scheduling situation is heavily in favor of the home team Texas State. They are playing the 2nd of back to back home games after beating ULM here by 18 points on Tuesday. It’s also the home finale which always brings an extra level of motivation. Lastly, because the Bobcats played on Tuesday, they are getting an extra day as Troy played Wednesday night @ Louisiana. Speaking of the Trojans, this will be their 4th straight road game in the span of only 9 days. They’ve played @ Arkansas St, @ ULM, @ Louisiana all since Feb 22nd and now @ Texas St just 48 hours after upsetting the Rajin Cajuns on Wednesday. In that win Troy made a ridiculous 38 FT’s (38 of 42) and Louisiana shot just 1 of 12 from 3 point land. Troy has a losing road record this season (5-8 SU) and with weary legs expected, they really don’t have a whole lot to play for. They are in 3rd place in the Sun Belt and locked into that spot most likely unless James Madison (2nd best team in the Sun Belt) would lose to Coastal Carolina, the worst team in the league which is highly unlikely. Troy is locked into a double bye in the conference tourney no matter what they do here. Texas State, on the other hand, needs a win to have a chance to move out of an opening round game and pick up a single by in the tournament. While the Bobcats have a losing record overall, they are 8-4 SU at home this season and they are playing well winning 6 of their last 9 games including topping the best team in the conference, App State, here by 7 points during that stretch. They average home margin is 75-66 and this is a revenger as the Bobcats lost @ Troy earlier this season with the Trojans shooting over 50% overall and over 40% from deep. We think Texas State has a great shot at the upset here and if not it should be close so we’ll grab the points with the home dog.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - These two teams just met in Indianapolis with the Pacers winning 123-114 as a 4-point favorite. The Pelicans went into that game having played the night before in New York and they were playing their 3rd in four nights and 5th game in 7 days. Indiana was off the night before and had played 3 straight home games prior. The Pelicans will get a measure of revenge on their home court tonight where they are 17-12 SU with the 11th best average point differential of +5.5PPG. New Orleans has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating on their home court allowing 1.120PPP. Indiana has a negative road differential of minus -1.9PPG and an overall SU record of 14-14. The Pacers defense on the road is one of the worst in the NBA as they give up 1.206-points per possession. New Orleans has the 3rd best spread record in the NBA when coming off a loss at 15-8-1 ATS with an average +/- of +6.7PPG. The Pacers clearly have a great offense with the best FG% in the NBA but the Pelicans have the 6th best shooting defense in the league allowing 46.3%. New Orleans is also the best team in the NBA defending the 3-point line and can limit the Pacers 5th ranked 3-points shooting.

#842 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State -6.5 over USC, Thursday at 10:30 PM ET - We’re getting one of the best teams in the Pac 12 at home off a loss. Washington State lost @ Arizona State on Saturday but that was a massive letdown spot for the Cougars after they upset Arizona on the road 2 nights earlier. Their loss @ ASU dropped them to 2nd place in the league so they need to win to keep pace with 1st place Arizona. Wazzu is 13-1 at home this year with 12 of their 13 home wins coming by at least 7 points and this spread sits at -8. Their only home win by fewer than 7 points was a 3 point win over Arizona. At home the Cougs hit over 50% of their shots, over 38% of their triples and they win by an average score of 80-63. They are facing a USC team that is 4 games below .500 on the season and on the road they are just 2-8 SU this season. One of those win came @ arch rival UCLA on Saturday as they topped the Bruins 62-56. After that big win we would look for a letdown from a USC team that really doesn’t have a lot to play for in this one as they sit in 2nd to last place in the Pac 12 with a 5-11 record. The Trojans have underachieved all season ranking 10th in the Pac 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They also have the worst 3 point defense in conference play allowing opponents to hit over 38% of their triples. Meanwhile, WSU ranks in the top 3 in Pac 12 play in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they are the #1 eFG% defense in the conference. USC has had 7 of their 8 road losses by at least 8 points which is more than tonight’s spread of 6.5 points. Wazzu won by 8 @ USC already this year and we look for a double digit win for the Cougars tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -8.5 vs Houston Rockets, 9:10 PM ET - These two teams just met in Houston last week with the Suns losing 110-114 as a 3-point favorite. Now the Suns are playing with revenge and laying a short number based on what the spread was in Houston. The Rockets have been horrible on the road this season with a 5-22 SU record and a negative differential of minus -6.3PPG (23rd). It’s been extremely tough for the Rockets on the road lately as they’ve lost 8 straight away from home and 5 of those L’s have come by 8+ points. Phoenix is starting to play well with a 6-3 SU record their last nine games with 5 straight wins on their home court. Houston struggles shooting with the 26th rated FG% in the NBA at 45.8%. they are also 26th worst in 3PT%. Phoenix on the other had shoots 49.6% as a team (3rd best) and 37.8% from Deep which ranks 8th. The Suns have the 6th best EFG% at 56.6%, the Rockets rank 28th at 52.5%. Granted the Rockets are the much better team defensively, but in their last five games their defense has allowed 1.166-points per possession which ranks 19th in the NBA over that span of games. The Suns defense has actually been much better over that same 5-game span allowing 1.154PP. We will lay the points with the Suns.

ASA top play on the 10* Clippers -3.5 vs. the Lakers, 10 PM ET - This rivalry has always meant more to the Clippers than the glamourous Lakers, which is why they’ve won 8 of the last ten meetings. The Lakers won the first two games of the season series, but the Clippers won most recently in the third clash on January 23rd. The Clippers were favored by -9.5-points in that game and won by 11. The Clippers have the 5th best average point differential in the NBA at +4.7PPG, while the Lakers have a negative overall differential of minus -0.5PPG. The Clippers are better offensively ranking 4th in OEFF, the Lakers are 18th. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Clippers allow 1.152PPP (13th) and the Lakers give up 1.155PPP (15th). The Lakers have a better overall spread record when coming off a loss, but the Clippers have the better overall point differential in those games at +4.3PPG versus +1.4PPG for the Lakers. We are on the Clippers in this one.

#756 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona State +12 over Arizona, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - These 2 arch rivals met 10 days ago and Arizona destroyed the Sun Devils 105-60 which was the largest margin of victory for either team ever in this storied rivalry. You can bet ASU will bring their “A” game in this one at home after that embarrassment. In that loss the Sun Devils made only 36% of their shots and made only 12 FT’s compared to the Wildcats 57% and 25 made FT’s. ASU has had a disappointing 14-14 season thus far but they’ve been solid at home with a 10-4 record and this will be their 3rd straight home game after losing by 2 vs Washington in OT and then topped Washington State by 12 points who was in the 1st place tie with Arizona at the time. With the exception of 1 game, they’ve been competitive in their home losses as well with 2 of their 4 setbacks coming by 2 points. Zona has been a dominant home team, but on the road they are just 5-3 SU on the season with losses @ Oregon State (last place in the Pac 12) and @ Stanford (9th place in the Pac 12). On the road the Cats average 6 fewer points and their shooting percentage drops 5% and their 3 point percentage drops 6%. The last 12 times Arizona has traveled to ASU, they’ve never won by more than 13 points and the Devils actually won 5 of those games outright. This is a very dangerous spot for the Cats and we like Arizona State to keep this close. Take the points.

#749 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +11.5 over Illinois, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Gophs continue to be undervalued with a ridiculous 23-4 ATS record and the fact is this team has played very well and been very competitive since late January. They’ve won 5 of their last 8 games and against the top half of the Big 10, they’ve held their own to say the least. Against the top 6 teams in the conference (Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern, & Nebraska), all ranked inside KenPom’s top 45 nationally, Minnesota has a record of 3-4 SU (6-1 ATS) with only 1 loss coming by more than 10 points and that was @ Nebraska over the weekend. They gave Purdue all they could handle on the road losing by 8 in a game the Gophers led by 10 in the 2nd half. They lost by 2 points vs Wisconsin and split with Michigan State – those are the top 3 teams in the conference besides Illinois. They are coming off their worst outing of the entire season losing @ Nebraska by 18 and they haven’t lost by more than 12 in any other conference game this season. We expect the Gophers to play well in what is a must win game if they have any hopes of an NCAA berth. They are on the outside looking in now but winning this game and closing the season with 3 more winnable games could get them in the conversation. Illinois is coming off a home win over Iowa by 10 points in a game they trailed by 7 with 12:00 remaining in the game. The Illini are in 2nd place in the Big 10 and they have a huge game on deck @ 3rd place Wisconsin to this could be a flat spot for them. They simply haven’t been playing dominant basketball over the last month. Their record over that stretch is 6-3 SU, however they only have 1 win by more than 12 points and that was at home vs a free falling Michigan team. Their defense has not been good allowing at least 1.13 PPP in 6 of their last 9 games and they’ve allowed at least 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Minnesota’s offense has played very well as of late averaging 78 PPG in their 7 games prior to playing poorly vs Nebraska last weekend. They’ll be able to do enough on offense to stay within this big number. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors +3.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - This is a tough scheduling spot for the Mavs playing 2nd of a B2B and 3rd game in four days. The Raptors are home and rested. It’s a small sample size but the Raptors have looked like a new team in their last 3 games. In those three games they have the 6th Net offensive 122.6 and a defensive Net rating that is 11th 110.5 . Overall, that’s the 5th best NET differential rating of +12.1 over a 3-game span. Dallas had ripped off 7 straight wins prior to losing Sunday against the Pacers but 4 of those were at home. Now Dallas has a very good spread record as a road favorite at 11-3 ATS but their margin of victory in those games is +3.1PPG. They have an overall road record of 15-11 SU but they have a negative average point differential of minus -2.3PPG. The Raptors as a home dog is 5-7 ATS with an average +/- of -3.8PPG – but again they are playing much better of late. These teams have similar home/road efficiency ratings so given the adverse traveling situation the Mavs are in we like the home team with Toronto.

#660 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -7 over Nevada, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - Really like this spot for a very solid CSU team off back to back road losses @ New Mexico & @ UNLV. The Rams are back home where they are a perfect 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) in Mountain West action. They are one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 25th in eFG% (42nd in offensive efficiency) and at home those numbers rise even more as they’ve hit 52% of their shots and averaged 82 PPG at Moby Arena. Their offensive efficiency at home is 1.16 PPP compared to 1.03 PPP on the road. So we know the Rams are good at home offensively. On defense has been where this team has surprised us this season. They rank 25th nationally in defensive efficiency and in conference play the Rams are #2 in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Put those 2 things together and you can see why this team is deadly at home (14-1 overall record with only loss by 3 points vs top 20 St Mary’s). Nevada is in the 2nd of back to back road games and this will be their 3rd in 4 on the road in the last 11 days. They are off a road win @ San Jose St, the lowest rated team in the MWC. This is also a revenger for CSU who lost 77-64 @ Nevada in January (we were on Nevada), in a game where the normally top notch shooting Rams hit 39% overall and just 26% from 3. They have struggled shooting at times on the road and that was one of those games, but now back at home we expect a very good offensive output for Colorado State. It they need to ice this one late the Rams hit over 76% of their FT’s on the season as well. Let’s lay the number with Colorado State.

ASA top play on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - This number is too high, and the value lies with the Dog in this rivalry. Boston recently played the 21-35 SU Nets at home and were favored by -11.5-points. In early February they were -11.5 at home against the Hawks. Now they are laying 12 versus the Sixers? Granted, the 76ers don’t have Embiid back they still have enough talent on this roster to stay close with the Celtics. Philly has the 7th best road point differential in the NBA at +2.8PPG and has only been road dogs 11 times this season with a 6-5 ATS record. They were recently +11.5 at Cleveland without Harris and Batum and won that game outright by 2-points. In the last meeting in Boston, the Celtics were favored by -11.5 points and the Sixers were without Embiid and Maxey. The Celtics barely won that game by 6-points. Boston is fantastic at home this season with a 26-3 SU record, but they are just 15-14 ATS as a favorite. 8 of the last ten meetings between these two teams has been decided by 12-points or less. Take the pooch!

#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -3 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We always at least look into the spot of an unranked home team favored over a ranked road team as historically that has been a solid play on the host. It’s never an automatic play for us as many other variables must be researched. We do like MSU in this one. Kentucky, ranked 15th in the AP Poll, is off a huge home win over Alabama who was in 1st place in the SEC at the time (on Saturday). The Cats rolled up huge offensive numbers in that game winning 117-95 shooting 63% from the field, 54% from beyond the arc, and 85% from the FT line. Now this young team, all but 1 player in the rotation are underclassmen, goes on the road to Starkville in what is a huge home game for the Bulldogs. This is a very similar situation to the Cats beating Auburn a little more than a week ago and then traveling to LSU where they lost. MSU has a solid 19-8 SU record but they are not yet safely in the NCAA tourney. Their most recent projection was right around a 9 seed by most and with 2 tough road games @ Auburn and @ A&M next, they can’t afford a potential 3 game losing streak. They have just 1 home loss in conference play (vs Bama) and the Dogs are on a solid 5 games winning streak including an impressive 20 point road win @ LSU on Saturday. These 2 met in Lexington in mid January and UK won 90-77 hitting 56% of their shots and making 23 FT’s to just 6 for Mississippi State. We look for the Bulldogs defense to take that game personally and play up to their capabilities here in the rematch. They have been fantastic all season defensively ranking 5th nationally in 3 point FG% defense, 23rd in eFG% defense, and 11th in defensive efficiency. These two teams have played nearly identical strength of schedules (44th and 47th per KenPom) and have the exact same records (both 19-8 SU) yet Kentucky is getting all the accolades. We like Mississippi State to win and cover this one at home.

ASA top play on 10* MIAMI HEAT +7.5 at Sacramento Kings, 10:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to bet on the Heat and fade the Kings who are coming off an emotional game last night against the Clippers. Miami last played on the 23rd, a win against the Pelicans. In the game against the Pels a scuffle broke out between the two teams and unfortunately for the Heat, Jimmy Butler is suspended for this game. But we still like Miami who has won 3 straight and 5 of their last six with two of those wins coming on the road in Milwaukee and Philadelphia without Butler. The Heat are 11-7 ATS on the road this season as a Dog with an average plus/minus of +0.66PPG. On that topic, the Kings are 10-13 ATS at home laying points with a net differential per game of +1.6PPG. Sacramento is also 3-5 ATS when playing without rest this season with a negative average differential of minus -5.3PPG. The Kings are 3-4 SU their last seven games heading into the contest against the Clippers and 5-5 SU their last ten games. When we compare each teams last five games we find the Heat have the leagues 6th best Net Rating differential versus the Kings who rank 11th. The Heat have stepped things up defensively with the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating over their last 5 games versus the Kings who rank 16th in that same span of games. The line is inflated due to the Heat suspensions, but it’s been over cooked. Grab the points.

#852 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State -9.5 over Ohio State, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Tough spot for a struggling OSU team on the road after playing @ Minnesota on Thursday night. They’re playing an MSU team that is off a poor home loss on Tuesday vs Iowa and they’ve had 2 extra days to get ready for this one. The Buckeyes had their one big upset at home vs Purdue the game after their head coach Holtmann was fired. That was a week ago and you could see in that game that OSU brought their “A” game along with an emotional effort which was to be expected. Then on Thursday they went right back to their old ways losing by 9 @ Minnesota in a game that wasn’t that close (Gophers led by 17 with 5:00 remaining in the game). They haven’t won a road game yet this season, 0-8 SU, and they are walking into a hornet’s nest here after traveling with short rest. MSU looked sluggish here on Tuesday vs Iowa to say the least. The Hawks shot over 50% and averaged 1.20 PPP which is WAY above Sparty’s season average as they allow 0.95 PPP. MSU should fare well offensively here vs an OSU defense thar ranks 13th (out of 14 Big 10 teams) in defensive efficiency and dead last defending the arc. Meanwhile Sparty, after a very slow start to the season from 3 point range, has moved all the way up to 30th nationally hitting 37% of their triples. We’re getting value in this bounce back spot as Michigan State was favored by 9.5 vs Iowa on Tuesday and now we get the same opening line vs an Ohio State team that is in a bad situation and ranks well below Iowa in KenPom’s power ratings. Prior to that loss, MSU had won 9 straight home games and they can’t afford a loss here with Purdue and NW (2 losable games) on deck. The Spartans are safely in the NCAA field now right around an 8 seed but a loss here could move them closer to the bubble.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 9 PM ET - We don’t mind the fact that the Wolves are playing the second night of a back-to-back here as they had plenty of rest with the All-Star Break. Minnesota is coming off a home loss to the Bucks last night and should be motivated for a bounce back win here. The T’Wolves have the best spread record in the NBA when coming off a loss with a 11-5 ATS record, and they’ve won those games by an average of +13.3PPG. Brooklyn is in a freefall in the midst of a 1-6 SU run their last seven games. On the season the Nets are 9-15 ATS on the road and they’ve lost 9 of their last ten away from home. Seven of those ten losses were by double-digits with an average loss margin of 17PPG. The big advantage the Wolves have here is with their defense. Minnesota has the best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA, while the Nets rank 21st. Minnesota has an average MOV at home this season of +9.4PPG which is 4th best in the league. We like the Timberwolves by 10+ today.

#642 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -2 over Duke, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Just a massively huge game for Wake here. They currently sit on the bubble for the NCAA tourney and really need a signature win down the stretch. This would absolutely qualify. WF will most likely be favored in each of their last 4 games so this is their final regular season shot to make a statement. These 2 met just 2 weeks ago and Duke won that game at home by 8. The Devils largest lead of the game was just 9 and it was mainly tight throughout. Duke led by 5 with 30 seconds left in the game and the FT disparity was heavily in favor of the Devils (+9 FT’s made) as it usually is at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke outshot Wake 47% to 39% yet the game was still very tight most of the way. From beyond the arc the Deacs were just 6 of 26 in that game (23%) which is way below their season average of 37% which is 25th best in the nation. We look for the Demon Deacons to shoot much better at home on Saturday where they have made 50% of their shot & 42% of their 3 pointers this season while averaging 85 PPG. They are also undefeated at home this year (14-0 SU & 10-3-1 ATS) including 8 wins over top 100 teams. The Devils do have a winning record on the road this year but they’ve been a bit fortunate in their road games over the last month or so. Example, they just beat Miami on the road on Wednesday but the Canes played without Pack & Cleveland, both starters who average 14 PPG. They also played @ FSU last Saturday and won but the Noles are a team in turmoil right now losing 6 of their last 9 games including 4 home games. Duke has played only 2 top 50 teams on the road all season and split those games beating Va Tech (who is 50th) and losing @ UNC. Wake is currently ranked 20th in the KenPom power ratings which is near where we have them as well. Last year the Blue Devils traveled to WF as a favorite and lost by double digits to a Demon Deacon team that was rated 50+ spots lower this this team. It’s Duke’s 3rd straight road game (Saturday, Wed, Saturday) and Wake is off a blowout home win on Tuesday vs a Pitt team that was rolling (won 5 straight entering that game). That means the Deacs get an extra day to prepare for this one as well while Duke continues their travel schedule. A non ranked team favored at home over a top 10 team? We agree and expect Wake to win and cover this one.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9.5 vs. Charlotte Hornets, 9:10 PM ET - We are betting the number here with the Jazz minus the points. These two teams recently met on January 27th in Charlotte and the Jazz were 10-point favorites in the Hornets building. They are now laying the same number at home. In the most recent meeting, the Jazz won 134-122 and that Hornets roster at the time featured PJ Washington who scored 43-points. Washington has since been traded to the Dallas Mavericks. Charlotte is one of the worst shooting teams in the league at 46.1% as a team which ranks 26th in the NBA. They rank 27th in offensive efficiency averaging 1.101-points per possession. In comparison the Jazz rank 15th in OEFF at 1.170PPP. Utah also holds a significant advantage on the boards with a top 8 offensive and defensive rebounding team versus a Hornets team that is 24th and 28th. Utah lost 4 straight games heading into the All-Star break, but the losses came to the Warriors twice, the Lakers and Suns. Charlotte has won 3 straight but had lost 10 in a row prior. It looks too easy to take the double-digit dog with the Hornets….so don’t.

#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State +1 over Sam Houston State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - NMSU has one of the biggest, if not the biggest, home/road dichotomy in college basketball. They are 0-12 SU on the road this season but a near perfect 11-1 SU at home. Their only home loss was vs one of the top teams in the MWC, New Mexico, and that was by 1 point. The Aggies are finally back home after losing 3 straight games, all on the road. We like the value here getting NMSU as a home dog (opening line +1) as we have them favored in this game in our power ratings. These 2 met in late January and SHSU was favored by 5 at home which means they should be a dog in this game of 2 of 3 points for the normal home/road swing. Sam Houston is off back to back wins but both at home. They haven’t been very successful on the road this year with a 4-9 SU record. They are a poor shooting team (322nd in FG%) but on the road it’s even worse where they hit just 39% of their shots and score 66 PPG. That’ll be tough to overcome in this road game vs a New Mexico State team that allows their opponents to make only 36% of their shots here at home while holding them to 61 PPG. When these 2 met 3+ weeks ago, Sam Houston won by 12 and the difference in that game was from beyond the arc. NMSU made only 4 three point shots (hit only 20% for the game) while Bearkats hit 10 outscoring the Aggies by 18 from deep. We expect that to turn around here as NMSU is a poor shooting team on the road, but at home they hit 41% of their triples on the season. We’ll take the points with the home team tonight.

#756 ASA TOP PLAY ON Delaware +1.5 over College of Charleston, Thursday at 7 PM ET - C of C is in 1st place in the CAA with Delaware 2 games back and chasing. We like the Blue Hens to pick up a home win on Thursday night. They are playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 6 games and they only have 1 home loss this season in conference play. Delaware is the #1 team in the conference in eFG% allowed and on offense they are #2 in eFG%. They defend the arc better than anyone in the CAA allowing just 28% in league games and they rank in the top 40 nationally overall on the season in that category. That is key here and Charleston throws up a lot of 3 point shots at 3rd most nationally attempting 31.5 per game. Despite being a team that scores almost 40% of their points from 3 (which is 19th most nationally) the Cougars aren’t a great 3 point shooting team ranking 244th in 3 point FG%. We expect tonight they’ll struggle against a very good 3 point defensive team. C of C has had some success on the road in league play winning 4 straight but they were all vs teams ranked 296th or lower in KenPom (Delaware is 147th). There are 7 CAA teams ranked in the top 200 and the Cougs have only played 2 of those teams on the road so far this season (1-1 record). They also have a huge revenge game on deck vs Towson in 2 days. These 2 teams have played a similar SOS this season yet the Blue Hens shoot the ball better (47% to 43%) and they defend better allowing opponents just 42% from the field (C of C allows 44%). We like Delaware to get the home win tonight.

#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -5.5 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - We’re catching this very solid New Mexico team off a road loss @ San Diego State while CSU is off a home win over 1st place Utah State. Perfect spot to grab the Lobos here. Colorado State has struggled big time on the road with a 1-5 SU mark in conference play. Their only MWC road win was @ Fresno State, the 3rd lowest rated team in the league, and when playing the top end of the conference away from home they’ve lost by 16 @ SDSU, by 13 @ Nevada, by 8 @ Boise, and by 5 @ Utah St. The Rams have very good overall offensive numbers but they drop off quite drastically away from home. They average 7.5 PPG less on the road and shoot 5% lower from the field. The Lobos won their first 11 home games this season but lost their most recent 2 vs Boise St and UNLV. They have rolled over some of the top tier teams in the MWC here at home beating 1st place San Diego State by 18 and 1st place (tied with SDSU) Utah State by 13. The Lobos have also had an extra day to rest and get ready for this one after playing last Friday with Colorado State playing on Saturday. When these 2 met @ CSU the Rams won by 8 with a +14 edge in made FTs. New Mexico is the only team in the MWC that ranks in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (conference games) and they lead the conference in TO rate both offensively and defensively as well. They are the better rebounding team in this match up as well which should lead to some extra possessions as well along with their expected edge in TO margin. We’ll lay it with New Mexico at home.

#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Drake -9 over Belmont, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Drake, who sits in 1st place in the MVC tied with Indiana State, has been waiting for this rematch. That’s because the Bulldogs, who are 13-3 in conference play, lost @ Belmont by 22 points, by far their worst loss of the MVC season. It was the most points Drake has allowed in conference play this season AND the least points they’ve scored in conference play this season. The Bruins went crazy in that game at home making 57% of their shots overall and 55% of their 3 pointers. It still stands as Belmont’s ONLY win this season over a top 100 opponent. Drake is the highest rated team in the MVC per KenPom (48th nationally) and they are the #1 offensive and defensive efficiency team in the conference (league games). They are a perfect 14-0 at home this season with 11 of those wins coming by double digits. Going back further they’ve won 73 of their last 80 home games! Belmont is playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 and when they faced the other 2 top 100 teams in the MVC on the road (Indiana State & Bradley) they lost by 30 & 23 points respectively. The Bruins are the fastest paced team in the Missouri Valley which will give the superior team Drake a better chance to pull away as we expect lots of possessions in this one. When the Bulldogs faced Belmont here last year they won by 14 but led by 22 with just 4:00 remaining in the game. We look for a similar outcome on Wednesday night with Drake winning easily.

#638 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State -2.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - These 2 are currently tied at the top of the MWC so the winner here moves into sole possession of 1st place. We like the home team Utah State. We’ve been on San Diego State a number of times at home this season where they’ve won 51 of their last 53 games, however the Aztecs are simply a different team away from the Viejas Arena. While they are undefeated at home, on the road SDSU is just 4-6 SU on the season and while all of their key offensive numbers drop on the road, their defensive numbers fall off dramatically. The Aztecs all 12 more PPG away from home and their defensive efficiency goes from 0.87 PPP at home to 1.04 PPP on the road. Their only road wins in conference play were vs San Jose State & Air Force, the 2 worst teams in the Mountain West. SDSU is also off 2 huge home revenge wins over Colorado St and New Mexico while we’re catching Utah State off a 20 point road loss @ CSU (we were on CSU). The Aggies now get to play at home after that embarrassing loss where they are 11-1 SU this year and 25-2 SU since the start of last season. It’s a revenger for USU who lost 81-67 @ San Diego State in a game where the Aggies shot poorly (26% from 3) and attempted 15 fewer FT’s than the host Aztecs. USU is the better shooting team by a fairly wide margin, especially at home where they hit 53% of their shots and average 85 PPG. If the Aggies need to put the game away late with FT’s they are the #1 FT shooting team in the MWC in league games hitting almost 77%. Lay this small number with Utah State at home.

#644 ASA PLAY ON BYU -3.5 over Baylor, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Like this spot for the very good home team BYU coming off their worst loss of the season. The Cougs lost by 10 @ Okie State on Saturday, the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 12. The normally sharp shooting BYU team (36% from 3 on the season) made only 8 of 35 triples (22%) in that loss. If they don’t hit 3’s they are in trouble as 41% of their points come from deep (2nd most in the nation). They should have success back at home facing a Baylor defense that isn’t great defending the arc (144th nationally) and in Big 12 play alone they rank 10th in the league. This is also a tough travel spot for Baylor after playing in West Virginia on Saturday (getting a win) and now on the west coast just a few days later. The Bears aren’t the deepest team in the world (266th in bench minutes) and will be playing in altitude for the first time this season – they’ve never played at BYU. The Bears may also be without one of the key players once again, Langston Love (12 PPG), which will take one of their top 3 point shooters off the floor and limit their depth even further. When these 2 met @ Baylor it was the first Big 12 game ever at the new Foster Pavilion (only 2nd game played there this season at the time) and the Bears were extra motivated. BYU shot a higher percentage for the game and outrebounded Baylor by 7, however they couldn’t overcome the Bearss 3 point shooting (43% for the game from deep) and they were outscored by 11 at the FT line in that 9 point loss. The Bears are in a bad travel spot as we mentioned, and situationally they have a huge game on deck at home vs #1 Houston (per KenPom). BYU is a very tough place to play (40-8 SU their last 48 here) and we like them to get the win and cover on Tuesday night.

#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -5.5 over TCU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Tech in need of a home win here after losing 4 of their last 6 games. However, all of those losses were close (8 points or less) and 3 of the 4 setbacks were on the road. Two of those losses came @ Iowa State (by 8) and @ Baylor (by 3), both top 12 teams per KenPom. The Red Raiders are coming off a road loss @ ISU over the weekend but their most recent home game prior to that was a 29 point win over Kansas. They are 13-1 at home this season with an average scoring margin of 77-61. One of their losses over this 6 game stretch was @ TCU 85-78. Tech, the #1 shooting team in the Big 12 (eFG%), had some very solid shooting numbers in that loss (52% from the field) but couldn’t overcome a HUGE deficit at the FT line. TCU attempted 32 freebies in that game (made 24) while Texas Tech only had 14 attempts the entire game (made 10). In a close game, that was the difference. It was an anomaly for Tech’s defense that rarely fouls allowing just 15% of their opponents points from the FT line which is top 30 in the nation. We don’t expect that discrepancy at home tonight. If the FT attempt numbers do favor Tech tonight, which they should, they are making 77% of their freebies in Big 12 play (1st in the conference) while TCU is making only 68% (last in the conference). TCU is off a 75-72 road win on Saturday @ KSU in a game the Wildcats made only 1 of 15 three point attempts yet still nearly won at home. Now the Horned Frogs are on the road again a few days later and this will be their 3rd road game in their last 4. Tough spot and we like Texas Tech to get a big win at home.

#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON Virginia Tech -3.5 over Virginia, Monday at 7 PM ET - Tech has beaten UVA 3 straight years here at home and we like them to add another W to the ledger tonight. The Cavs have won 9 of 10 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in the ACC thus far (haven’t played Duke or UNC) and of those 10 games only 3 were played vs teams ranked in the top 5 in the conference. In those 3 games vs top 5 conference opponents, Virginia beat Clemson at home by 1, beat WF at home by 2, and lost at Pitt by 11. Tech has lost 4 of 5 but 3 of those losses came on the road and they also played both UNC & Duke (top 2 teams in the ACC) during that stretch. UVA struggles in general offensively but on the road is where they really have problems putting the ball in the basket shooting just 42% while averaging only 63 PPG. Their defense also allows 11 more PPG on the road where they are just 4-4 on the season. VT is 11-2 at home this year and their offense is tops in the ACC in eFG% and FT%. Their home losses came vs Duke & Miami and in their 4 point loss vs the Canes the Hokies played without their 2nd leading scorer and top 3 point shooter, Hunter Cattoor. In the first meeting between these 2 in state rivals, UVA won by 8 at home and they were +7 from the FT line making 11 compared to VT who only went to the line 4 times the entire game (4 for 4). That’s unlike Virginia to win at the FT line as only 14% of their points this season come from the stripe (355th) and when they get there they are a poor shooting team making only 64% on the season. If Tech can get to the stripe tonight, which we think they will at home, they should have a huge edge as they make 80% of their attempts on the season. We don’t think UVA will be able to keep up offensively on the road and we’ll grab the Hokies win and cover tonight.

#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UCLA -2 over Utah, Sunday at 7 PM ET - This young Bruins team was struggling to say the least in mid January when they lost 8 of 9. Head coach Mick Cronin turned this team around and they have now won 8 of their last 9 including 4 road games which is impressive. The Bruins only loss during their 8 game run was @ Arizona by 7 points and even in that game they played very well leading by as many as 19 points before the Wildcats furious comeback. They beat Colorado here on Thursday despite the Buffs hitting 53% of their shots which made the win even more impressive. Despite that shooting effort by the Buffs, UCLA’s defense has been lights out rising to #1 efficiency wise in the Pac 12 and in the 7 wins during their recent 9 game run only 1 team topped 66 points. The Utes are now the team in a free fall in Pac 12 play. They have now lost 5 of their last 6 and Utah is 0-6 SU on the road in conference play. Utah is on the road for the 2nd of back to back games after losing @ USC on Thursday who entered that game with a 3-10 Pac 12 record. The Utes lost key senior Rollie Worster (10 PPG and 5.5 APG) in mid January and they have since gone 3-6 SU. Utah doesn’t create turnovers defensively (last in the Pac 12), they aren’t a great rebounding team, and they only shoot 58% from the FT line in conference play. Not a great recipe for winning especially on the road. UCLA will have some extra motivation in this one after losing at Utah 90-44, their low point of the season, in mid January. That embarrassing loss propelled the Bruins to their current 8-1 run which started right after that game in Salt Lake City. Small number here and we’ll grab UCLA to win at home.

#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan +6.5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Michigan beat Wisconsin at home on Feb 7th and then went on the road and was beaten badly in back to back games @ Nebraska and @ Illinois. The Wolverines are still playing without their top player Dug McDaniel on the road (suspended for road games) but he can play in Michigan’s home games. They are a different team with McDaniel on the court as he averages 17 PPG, 5 assists per game and averages 35 minutes per game. This is Michigan’s Super Bowl to say the least. They have had a dismal season but this is the game they will give everything they have to try and top their in state rival. Sparty is far from a solid road team with a 2-5 SU record this year. Their road wins came @ Maryland by 2 points and @ PSU on Wednesday night so they are playing their 2nd straight road game. MSU has been shooting lights out during their current 5 games stretch (4-1 SU) hitting 50% overall and 41% from deep and they are due for some regression. On the road this year they are hitting just 44% of their shots and averaging only 68 PPG so the regression could come here. These 2 met on January 30th @ MSU and Michigan led at halftime despite not having McDaniel in the line up. The Spartans pulled away in the 2nd half but hit a ridiculous 56% from the filed and 43% from deep at home. MSU was just a 3 point favorite @ PSU on Wednesday and now they are laying nearly 7 vs their arch rival who only sits 12 spots lower than PSU in KenPom’s ratings. In their first meeting with Michigan, the Spartans were -11.5 and now laying 6.5 on the road with McDaniel back in the line up for the Wolverines. We like Michigan to give MSU all they can handle here and have a shot at the upset. Take the points.

#762 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -14 over Fresno State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This one has blowout written all over it. Boise is off back to back road losses @ Colorado State and @ Utah State, 2 of the top teams in the MWC. Now they’ve had a full week off to get ready for a bounce back effort on Saturday. They are facing a Fresno team that just lost at home vs UNLV on Wednesday evening and this will be the Bulldogs 3rd road game in their last 4. On top of that, this Fresno team is decimated by injuries right now. They only have 5 players available who are in their regular rotation. They will be without 3 of their top 6 scorers in this game including their top 2 big men. Boise already was going to have a huge edge on the boards and now with 13+ boards on the bench for FSU it should be a gigantic edge. The Broncos already rank #1 in both offensive and defensive rebounding in conference play and they are facing a Fresno team that is 11th (last) in offensive board and 9th in defensive boards and that was WITH their 2 big men in the line up for nearly every game. Boise is 10-2 at home with their only losses coming in OT vs Utah State who is in 1st place and by 4 points vs UNLV in a game the Broncos only made 40% of their shots and just 29% of their 3’s. Fresno is only 4-8 in conference play and their 4 wins have come vs Air Force (twice) and San Jose State (twice) who have a combined conference record of 3-21. These two met earlier this season and Boise won on the road 72-68 despite the Bulldogs shooting 53% on their home floor. The players missing in this game for FSU combined for 32 points in that loss. The Fresno offense ranks 10th in the Mountain West in offensive efficiency and the average only 64 PPG on the road this season. With the anticipation of no inside game or offensive rebounding in this game they’ll have to light it up from beyond the arc to have a chance to stay close. That’ll be a problem vs a Boise State defense that ranks 1st in the MWC defending the 3 point line allowing only 29%. The Bronco offense averages over 80 PPG at home and they are rested and in a must win spot. The Bulldogs have played only 2 road games vs the top 5 teams in the conference this year (Boise falls into that category) and they lost those 2 games by 21 & 27 points and they were full strength for those games. This should be a blowout.

#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -6 over Utah State, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - Utah State sits at 9-3 in MWC play and in 1st place. They’ve played the easiest strength of schedule so far in league play having faced only 4 games (out of 12) vs the top 5 teams in the conference. USU is 1-3 SU in those games with their only win coming at home by 5 points vs this CSU team. In that game, the Rams led on the road at halftime and for a majority of the 2nd half as well in their 77-72 loss where the Utah State fans stormed the court after the win. The difference in that game was at the FT line where USU made 20 freebies and CSU made only 4. Despite that huge disparity the game still was close throughout. Now we’re getting Colorado State back at home where they are undefeated in conference play including knocking off the 2 highest rated teams in the league (San Diego State & New Mexico) both by 8 points. They enter this game off a loss @ San Diego State on Tuesday (we were on the Aztecs in that game) blowing a 14 point halftime lead and scoring only 11 points the entire 2nd half. That should give them another shot of motivation for this one. At home this CSU team is great offensively. They already rank 14th nationally in eFG% but at home this team hits 53% of their shots on 1.17 PPP and averages 83 PPG. The Aggies are off an 8 point road win at Wyoming, one of the worst teams in the conference, and their overall road record is solid at 6-3. However, they haven’t beaten a single team on the road ranked above 90 (CSU is currently ranked 36th) and they lost to every top 50 team they’ve played on the road this season. Colorado State has played the tougher overall schedule this season and despite that their efficiency margin numbers are still better than Utah State. We like the Rams to get a big home win on Saturday.

#896 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -6.5 over New Mexico, Friday at 10 PM ET - Rinse and repeat. We’ve been on SDSU at home in revenge spots this season vs Utah State, Colorado State, and Nevada and picked up 3 double digit wins. We’re on them again on Friday night at home vs New Mexico who gave the Aztecs their worst loss of the season 88-70 back in mid January. It was the only double digit loss for San Diego State this season. Now they get the Lobos at home where they are basically unbeatable. The Aztecs are 12-0 SU at home this season with 11 of those 12 wins coming by double digits with their average margin of victory at +17 PPG. Going back further, they are a remarkable 50-2 SU their last 52 home games! These 2 are tied for 2nd place in the MWC at 8-4 but the Lobos have shown some signs of struggling after their red hot run in January. They had won 5 in a row in January but are just 2-2 their last 4 games, both home losses to Boise and UNLV which throws up a few red flags. Their 2 wins during that 4 game stretch came vs Wyoming, one of the worst teams in the league, and a 1 point win @ Nevada on Tuesday winning on a last second 3 pointer. You can bet the Aztecs will be fully focused on the defensive end after allowing the most points they have all season (in regulation) when they played @ NM. The Aztecs continue to lead the MWC in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.95 PPP on the season (top 20 nationally) and SDSU still has not allowed a single opponent to reach 1.00 PPP at home. They held a potent CSU offense to 11, yes 11, second half points earlier this week which was a win for us on SDSU. We’ll keep going to this well with SDSU at home in revenge mode. Lay it.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line (-1.5 goals +120) over Arizona Coyotes, Friday at 9:05 PM ET - Carolina is in a great spot here which is why the odds on the Hurricanes have risen to as high as a -225 favorite on the money line. Where the value is here is with the puck line which is in the +120 range on this one. Regardless of the starting goalies here, we are strong on the Canes in this spot. However, we will mention that the expected starters are Karel Vejmelka for the Coyotes and Pyotr Kochetkov for the Hurricanes. Kochetkov allowed 3 goals in the loss to Dallas but had allowed 2 or less goals in each of his 7 road starts since mid-December - and an average of just 1.4 goals ruing this stretch! Arizona is without #1 goalie Connor Ingram as he was hurt in the 3-1 home loss to Minnesota Wednesday. Vejmelka has lost 14 of 20 decisions this season and has a 3.36 GAA on the season. He has allowed 26 goals in his last 6 starts including allowing at least 4 goals in 5 of those 6 starts! Vejmelka is struggling badly and faces a tall order here. The Hurricanes come to Arizona hungry for a win as they are off a 4-2 loss at Dallas. The Canes team is well-coached and is an especially tough team when off a loss. The Hurricanes had won 13 of 17 games prior to that loss. Unlike red hot Carolina, Arizona has been trending in the other direction. The Coyotes have lost 13 of 17 games and that includes 7 in a row! 16 of last 21 Arizona losses have been by a margin of 2 or more goals. The Coyotes are struggling to score goals so another loss by a multi-goal margin appears likely here. Arizona's has averaged just 1.9 goals scored in last 18 losses. Carolina has averaged 4.2 goals scored in last 14 wins. We look for at least a 4-2 final in this one and the rested Hurricanes off a loss coupled with the Coyotes goalie situation makes a win by a 3-goal margin quite possible here. Road team in a blowout has high probability here per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Carolina is the value play here.

#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Drexel -3.5 over Hofstra, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting some nice line value in this game with Drexel laying a short number at home. That’s because the Dragons have lost 4 of their last 5 games while Hofstra has won 7 of their last 8. Hofstra has played only ONE team ranked in the top 200 over their last 8 games while Drexel has faced 4 opponents ranked inside the top 200 in their last 5 games. Their 4 losses during that stretch have all been on the road and they are entering this game off 3 straight losses (all on the road) so we expect a motivated effort here from the host. They are catching Hofstra in a rough scheduling spot as well playing their 3rd road game in a week. The Pride step into this game off back to back road wins last Thursday @ Hamptons and on Saturday @ North Carolina A&T. Nothing overly impressive about those 2 wins topping 2 of the worst teams in college basketball who rank 351st and 343rd respectively. Now Hofstra takes a huge step up in competition vs a home team that is very motivated to get a win. The 4 highest rated teams (per KenPom) in the CAA this year are UNC Wilmington, Charleston, Drexel, and Delaware. The Dragons have played host to 2 of those teams (UNCW & Delaware) and rolled to easy wins by 15 and 19 points. They were favored by 6 at home vs Delaware and now they are laying a full possession lower than that vs a Hofstra team that is rated lower. Both of these teams are 8-4 in CAA action but Drexel has played the #5 strength of schedule in conference play while Hofstra has played the easiest slate. Despite playing the much tougher slate in CAA play Drexel has better efficiency numbers with a +12.00 efficiency margin (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) while Hofstra is +7.00 in that key category. Drexel is the better team here, in the much better situation, laying a small number at home. We’ll take it.

#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers -3.5 over Northwestern, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Rutgers is peaking right now to say the least having won 3 in a row, 2 of those wins on the road, and in their most recent game on Saturday they rolled Wisconsin, one of the top teams in the Big 10, by 22 points. Much of that has been their outstanding defense holding 3 straight opponents to less than 60 points and all scored fewer than 0.87 PPP, but the offense received a boost as well. That’s because Temple transfer, Jeremiah Williams, finally was on the court the last 3 games after missing the first 20 games of the season. Williams has scored 42 points, grabbed 16 board, and had 9 assists in those 3 wins giving them a huge offensive boost. If the offense continues to improve, watch out. They should play well in this one vs a NW defense that has struggled all year ranking dead last in the Big 10 in eFG% allowed. The Rutgers defense ranks 2nd nationally in efficiency and have allowed opponents to shoot only 36% at home while giving up only 60 PPG. They are catching Northwestern in a bad spot. The Cats are off back to back home wins vs Nebraska & Penn State, however this team has been flat out poor on the road with a 1-5 SU record with their only road win coming @ PSU by 4 points in a game the Nittany Lions blew and 2nd half double digit lead. On top of that, NW will be playing without one of their key starters, Ty Berry, who injured his knew 2 games ago vs Nebraska and is now out of the season. He is their top 3 point shooter and averages 12 PPG. He would also be key in this game vs the Rutgers full court pressure so his absence will be a problem here. We feel the Scarlet Knights will be a problem for a number of teams down the stretch and call for a home win and cover on Thursday night.

ASA play on LA Clippers +4 vs. Golden State Warriors 10 PM ET - I’ll start with the fact that I’ve been wrong betting against Golden State in their last two games. That changes here as we get a win tonight with the Clippers in this Western Conference showdown. The Warriors have won 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8 but only 1 of those wins came against a team the quality of the Clippers. Golden State was recently a 1-point dog to the Kings on this court and favored by 1.5 against the Lakers and lost both games. The Clippers are climbing the ranks in our power rankings and we currently have them as the 4th best team in the NBA. They are coming off an embarrassing loss at home to the Timberwolves and should bounce back here. The Clippers are 27-7 in their last 34 games and 5th best Adjusted Net rating in the NBA. LA is 15-11 SU on the road this season with the 4th best average net differential per game of +4.4PPG. The Clippers are 10-6 Su this season off a loss with an average +/- of +4.1PPG. Even though LA is likely without Kawhi Leonard here, buck the home team trend here of 9 straight winners.

ASA play on Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Sacramento Kings, 9 PM ET - This is the ideal spot to back the Nuggets and fade the Kings. Denver returns home after a most recent loss to the Bucks. Sacramento has to play in the higher altitude after a huge game last night in Phoenix. The Nuggets are 12-5 SU this season when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +3.8PPG. At home the Nugget are 21-4 SU this season and they’ve won those games by an average of +9.7PPG. Going back to the start of last season, nobody in the NBA has a better home record than Denver at 65-12 SU, +9.8PPG. The Kings were fantastic on the road a season ago but have regressed to 15-13 SU away this season with an average MOV of +0.1PPG. Going back to last season the Kings are 10-12 ATS when playing without rest. Lastly, this is a quick turnaround game for these teams as they just met in Sacramento where the Kings put a smackdown on the Nuggets in a 135-106 win. Denver was coming off a big win over the Lakers the night before while the Kings were rested. Easy call here with Denver at home.

#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON San Diego State -5.5 over Colorado State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - SDSU is looking for revenge in this one after losing 79-71 @ CSU a few weeks ago. We were on the Rams in that game, but a completely different situation for this one. In that game CSU was off back to back road losses and in a must win spot at home. Now they travel to San Diego State, who is off an OT road loss @ Nevada on Friday and now back home where they are pretty much unbeatable. They’ve responded after each of their first 5 losses with wins and 4 of those bounce backs have come by double digits. The Aztecs are 11-0 SU at home this season with 10 of those 11 wins coming by double digits with their average margin of victory at +17 PPG. Going back further, they are a remarkable 49-2 SU their last 51 home games. While San Diego State has been flawless at home, Colorado State is just 1-4 SU on the road in conference play with their only win coming @ Fresno State, the 3rd lowest rated team in the Mountain West. In the first meeting, CSU shot lights out at home hitting 54% of their shots, the Rams made 9 more FT’s in the 8 point win and averaged 1.20 PPP, the most SDSU has allowed to any opponent this season. Their home offensive numbers are very good but the Rams drop off quite drastically on the road. You can bet the Aztecs will be fully focused on the defensive end after that poor performance @ CSU. They lead the MWC in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.95 PPP on the season (top 20 nationally) and SDSU has now allowed a single opponent to reach 1.00 PPP at home. As we stated above the Aztecs home court advantage is among the best in college hoops and they’ve dominated CSU here winning 18 of the last 20 meetings. We’ll call for another win and cover for San Diego State tonight.

ASA top play on LA Clippers -4.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 PM ET - We are betting the number here as this line is ‘light’ in our opinion and based on our power ratings. These teams met on January 14th in Minnesota and the Clippers were a 1-point road favorite. The Clippers were even without their starting center Zubac. That game went down to the wire with the Wolves winning by 4-points despite the Clippers shooting just 43% as a team and attempting 13 less FT’s. Minnesota shot 57% as a team and 50% from the 3-point line. The shooting percentages will even out tonight and we would expect the Clippers to get a few more calls as the home team. Minnesota is .500 or 36-36 SU their last 72 road games with a negative differential of minus -0.3PPG. In that same time frame the Clippers are 43-25 SU at home with an average +/- of +3.9PPG. The favorite has covered 7 of the last ten in this series and we expect Los Angeles to get a double-digit win here as they get revenge for that tight loss at Minnesota last month. Revenge home rout here!

ASA top play on Utah Jazz -1.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Jazz here who have been off since Thursday and will be well rested here. Golden State played a tough 5-game East Coast Road, then played a huge home game versus Phoenix and now travel back to Utah. The Warriors have won 4-straight games and 6 of their last seven games yet are a road dog here? The Jazz have recent home wins over the Bucks and Thunder who both grades out better than the Warriors. These two teams are much closer than you might think when it comes to offensive and defensive efficiency rating, yet the spread on this game is swayed by public money and influence for the Warriors. Utah is 17-7 SU at home this season with the 7th best average point differential at +7.6PPG. Going back to the start of last season the Warriors are 23-47 SU with an average differential of minus -2.4PPG. We will back the home team here.

#881 ASA TOP PLAY ON Wake Forest +7 or +7.5 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET - Too many points here to give a WF team we think will give Duke problems. The Deacs are an outstanding shooting team (25th in eFG%) especially from deep where they hit 38% of their triples (17th in the nation). That plays well into Duke’s defensive weakness as the Devils rank outside the top 135 defending the arc. The Demon Deacons have a number of players that can put the ball in the basket (4 guys averaging at least 14 PPG) making them a very tough guard. Wake is also a great FT shooting team hitting over 80% and they can score points (81 PPG) which makes it very tough to pull away from this team. In fact, 6 of their 7 losses this year have come by less than this spread with their only really poor outing coming @ UNC where they lost by double digits and made only 3 of 20 triples on the night (15%). Duke is 12-2 at home this year but they’ve had a few close calls to go along with their losses here vs Pitt & Arizona. They barely squeaked by Clemson (by 1 point) and struggled with a bad Ga Tech team (won by 5). Wake will be the 2nd highest rated team (per KenPom) Duke has faced at home this season and they’ve only faced 2 top 30 teams at Cameron Indoor this year losing vs Arizona and beating Clemson by 1 on 2 FT’s with under 1 second remaining in the game. The Deacs have taken Duke to the wire at Cameron Indoor each of the last 2 seasons losing both by 2 points so they will not be intimidated in this venue. We think this one goes to the wire and getting 7 points is a solid cushion.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +2 over SAN FRANCISCO 49ers - We’ll side with the better QB, the better defense, and the more experienced coach getting points in the Super Bowl. We’re all aware of the success KC has as an underdog. The Chiefs are on a tear that's seen them go 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog. They were the outright winner in 15 of these games. Some of that predates Mahomes but if we look at the games where he was QB and the Chiefs were underdogs they are 10-1-1 ATS including winning 9 of those 12 games outright. The road KC took to get here was by far more impressive than what the Niners did. Mahomes and company beat a very good Miami team handily, then went on the road and beat the hottest team in the NFL (Buffalo) and followed that up with a road win at what most, including us, considered the best team in the NFL (Baltimore). Meanwhile, San Fran struggled to win home games vs 7 seed Green Bay and Detroit. Truth be told, the 49ers probably shouldn’t even be here as they led for only 27 minutes in those 2 games combined (out of 120 total minutes). SF QB Purdy is solid but is completely inexperienced in this spot and has looked a bit frazzled at times the first 2 games of the playoffs. Meanwhile, Mahomes has played in 17 playoff games (14-3 SU record) and 3 Super Bowls. Huge QB edge to KC. The Chiefs have better overall numbers defensively (PPG, YPG, YPP) and they have played very well during this playoff run holding a potent Miami offense to 7 points, Buffalo put up 24 but on only 4.7 YPP, and they held the Ravens to 10 points in Baltimore. The Niners gave up 31 points last week to Detroit and 21 to Green Bay although the Packers blew some opportunities and only punted 1 time in the game. The KC defense gave up 11 points less than SF in the playoffs despite playing an extra game! Over their last 6 games SF’s defense allowed 29, 33, 10 (vs Washington), 21, 21, and 31 points. Not great. KC’s impressive run through the AFC (winning as underdogs) puts them in a good spot historically. In fact, in the last 20 seasons, there have been 8 teams that won outright in Championship game as an underdog and those teams went on to win 6 times (out of 8) in the Super Bowl. On top of that, dogs have covered 16 of the last 22 Super Bowls and we’re confident it will happen again this year. We like KC to win this game outright so take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 vs Sacramento Kings, 3 PM ET - The Thunder are coming off a big loss at Dallas yesterday and should bounce back at home where they are 20-6 SU this season. The Thunders starters should not be overly fatigued here as they had 3 days off prior to yesterday's game and didn’t play much versus Dallas in the blowout. As we mentioned, OKC is 20-6 SU at home, 17-9 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +10PPG. Sacramento could let down here as they are coming off a huge 29-point home win over the Nuggets on Friday evening. Sacramento is 15-12 SU away from home this season with an average MOV of +0.6PPG. The Kings rank 15th in turnovers per game and the Thunder are the best defense in the league in turning teams over. OKC also enjoys a huge advantage with their 3rd best shooting percentage at 49.9% versus a Kings D that allows opponents to hit 48.7% of their FGA’s which ranks 22nd. The Thunder are the 3rd best 3PT% in the NBA and the Kings are last in defending the 3-point line. Lastly the Thunder are playing with double revenge as they’ve lost twice to Sacramento this season. Lay the short number with OKC.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -1.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Suns are 3-0 against the Warriors this season and have that record despite one of their “big 3” not playing in each of those W’s. All-Star PG Booker sat out the Suns last game for load management but will play today so Phoenix will have their full complement of Stars. Golden State is playing their first game at home after a recent 5-game East coast road trip and will struggle in this match up. The Clippers, Lakers and Kings, a few other West coast teams, underperformed in their first games home after a similar travel schedule in recent weeks. The Suns are starting to look like the contender they were predicted to be prior to the start of the season. Phoenix has won 5 of their last 6 and 7 of 10. Golden State on the other hand has seen their Championship window close with an aging roster that hasn’t made any improvements. Phoenix is the better shooting team at 50% (3rd best) compared to the Warriors who rank 17th at 47.4%. The Warriors are 9th in 3-point percentage, but the Suns are 5th. When the Warriors were at their peak, they were one of the best teams in the league defensively. They don’t have that advantage here either as the Suns allow 1.157-points per possession compared to the Warriors who give up 1.172PPP. Steph Curry just scored 42-points against the Pacers and carried this Warriors team to a win. We don’t expect a repeat performance in this scheduling situation. I’m betting we also get a motivated effort from Kevin Durant against his former team. Lastly, the Suns being favored here tells us enough. Back Phoenix.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The underdog is the way to go in this one as these two teams are very even and many aspects with the Bulls at 25-27 SU and the Magic at 28-24. Chicago is slightly better when it comes to offensive efficiency ratings at 1.137-points per possession compared to the Magic who average 1.129PPP. Defensively the Magic have the advantage allowing 1.119PPP compared to the Bulls giving up 1.153PPP. The two meetings between these two teams this season were close with the Magic winning by 6 and 2-points in the two meetings. In fact, the Underdog has cashed in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two Eastern Conference foes. The big edge we see the Bulls have in this matchup is the fact that they don’t turn it over like Orlando does. The Bulls average the 4th fewest TO’s per game, the Magic turn it over 14.4 times per game which is 23rd worst. Orlando has been a great favorite this year but the oddsmakers are starting to adjust their pricing on the Magic, giving us some added value here. Chicago has won 3 straight road games and are more than capable of hanging with the young Magic on their home court.

#707 ASA TOP PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This OSU team has to be completely demoralized at this point. Not only have they lost 8 of their last 9 games, they just blew an 18 point 2nd half lead at home on Tuesday night and lost to Indiana 76-73. That was only the 2nd road win this season for the Hoosiers. Blowing a huge lead like that we just can’t imagine this plummeting OSU team is in the right frame of mind right now. One telling statistic in regards to the Buckeyes is the fact they are 3-9 on Big 10 play (last place) despite playing the easiest conference schedule per KenPom. That speaks volumes. Maryland is coming of 2 straight losses vs Michigan State and Rutgers but this team is improving. They’ve also proven they can win on the road already beating Illinois, UCLA, and Iowa away from home this season. We’re getting a massive defensive edge in this game by siding with Maryland. They rank #1 in the Big 10 (conference games) in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and scoring allowing only 63 PPG. Compare that to the Buckeyes who are dead last in the conference in defensive efficiency, dead last in 3 point FG% allowed, and 12th in eFG% allowed while giving up 77 PPG in league play. The Terps offensive numbers are nothing to write home about but they are facing one of the worst defenses in the Big 10. The Bucks aren’t great offensively either ranking just 8th in the conference in offensive efficiency and 12th in eFG% but facing a high level defense. We don’t expect them to do much at all vs this Maryland defense. OSU is just 1-6 ATS as a favorite this season in Big 10 play and they’ve won only 3 of those games outright. We like Maryland here.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -5 vs Detroit Pistons, 10 PM ET - The Blazers find themselves in unfamiliar territory here as a favorite for only the 5th time this season. If we go back to the start of last season, they are 14-13 ATS as a home chalk with an average +/- of plus 4.6PPG. Portland is playing well right now with a 2-3 SU record in their last five games and two of those wins were against the Bucks and 76ers. Two of the losses were close games in Denver which speaks volumes of how much better this team is right now. Proving our point is their adjusted net ratings. On the season the Blazer ANR is -8.2, but in their last five games they are a positive +0.8. Detroit is 6-43 SU on the season with the worst road record in the league at 2-20 SU. They have one of the worst road differentials at minus -11.5PPG. Granted, the Pistons have covered 8 of their last ten games but only two of those games were away from home. Detroit has an adjusted net rating of -.9.5 for the season and -5.4 in their last five games. Portland has struggled offensively at times, but they should find plenty of open looks against this Pistons D that is 29th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.215-points per possession. We will lay the points with Portland.

#836 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB +6 over Florida Atlantic, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We feel FAU has been overvalued this season after their performance last year which took them to the Final 4. We feel they are especially vulnerable on the road where they have a winning record this year but barely at 3-2 SU (1-4 ATS). You read that correctly, the Owls have played only 5 true road games this year out of their 22 total games. The Blazers are playing their best basketball right now and they are a very dangerous team at home, especially as an underdog as they are 8-1 ATS when getting points this season. They struggled a bit early and lost 3 home games prior to December 2nd, but they’ve since won 7 in a row at home and they are 53-9 SU here since the start of the 2020 season. Even last year when FAU was Final 4 caliber, they lost by 9 when they traveled to UAB and in fact they’ve never won at Bartow Arena (0-7 SU). The Blazers are coming off a 3 point loss @ SMU, the 2nd highest rated team in the AAC. They blew a 12 point lead with under 10 minutes to play in the game in that loss. That was 1 of only 3 losses for UAB since mid December (10-3 SU record) and the others were both on the road as well @ Charlotte and @ FAU, tonight’s opponent. In that first meeting back in mid January, FAU hit 49% of their shots while the Blazers made only 39% and just 19% from 3 (5 of 26). UAB is 6-3 in conference play despite playing the 2nd most difficult schedule in AAC play having already faced all 4 league teams ranked in the top 100 nationally (UAB has 2-2 record in those games). This will be their 4th straight games vs those top 4 AAC teams and in their previous 3 they beat Memphis and North Texas and took SMU to the wire as we mentioned. We give the Blazers a great shot to win here and if it’s tight as we expect we get some extra cushion with the points.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Panthers Puck Line (-1.5 goals -100) over Washington Capitals, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET - Florida is in a great spot here which is why they are a -270 favorite on the money line. Where the value is here is with the puck line which is in the even money range on this one. Regardless of the starting goalies here, we love the Panthers in this spot. However, we will mention that the expected starters are Darcy Kuemper for the Capitals and Sergei Bobrovsky for the Panthers. Kuemper lost his starting job to Charlie Lindgren because of performance but now Lindgren is off a rough start so here comes Kuemper again. He has had a very rough season with his performance away from home being particularly bad. Kuemper has lost 8 of 12 road decisions and has a 3.77 GAA away from home this season! Bobrovsky was in the All-Star game so he was given a break in Tuesday's loss to the Flyers. Now he is back for this start and he is having a fantastic season. This is the perfect situation for a big play on the Panthers as they are off a home loss and now can take advantage of a struggling Capitals team. Washington has lost 13 of 18 games and 9 of their last 12 losses have been by 2 or more goals. Already without Backstrom since late October now they are without Kuznetsov and this Capitals team is just not at the same level as the Caps teams of recent seasons. Florida has been trending the opposite direction of Washington as they had won 13 of 17 games prior to the 2-1 loss to the Flyers Tuesday. The Panthers had scored an average of 4 goals per game last 17 games prior to the loss to Philly. The Capitals have had trouble scoring goals for much of this season and enter this game having scored just 19 goals in last 11 road games! Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Florida is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +6.5 at LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the red hot Clippers who have just played 7 straight games on the East Coast and only had 1 day off prior to this contest. New Orleans has won 3 straight games, the most recent was a 38-point blowout of the Raptors in which their starters played very few minutes. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season between these two teams with the road team winning both. The most recent clash was on January 5th in New Orleans which resulted in a Clippers 111-95 victory. The Pelicans had a horrendous night shooting by making 33/92 FG attempts or 36%. New Orleans is the 9th best shooting team in the league at 48.7% overall and own the 7th best 3PT%. These two teams have many similar statistics as the Clippers shoot 49.6% or 5th best and have the best overall 3PT% in the NBA. When it comes to defense the Pelicans rank 9th in defensive efficiency, the Clippers are 10th. The Pels hold opponents to 46.4% shooting, the Clippers give up 46.4%. The Clippers have 5 more wins on the season than the Pelicans, but these two teams are very even numbers wise. Given the travel circumstances, we won’t be surprised if New Orleans pulls the upset. Grab the points!

#700 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana Tech -9.5 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - La Tech is by far the best team in CUSA (ranked 66th nationally – the only team in CUSA in the top 100) and they’ve been simply destroying teams at home. They are a perfect 11-0 SU at home winning by an average margin of +22 points and they’ve held their opponents to an average of only 58 PPG at home. The Bulldogs are in the top 10 nationally in both FG% allowed (38%) and PPG allowed (62 PPG). They have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to less than 60 points. This will be easily the best defense Western Kentucky has faced this season. The Hilltoppers have an offensive efficiency rating of 225th in the nation, yet they’ve only faced ONE defense prior to tonight that ranks in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. They are the fastest paced team in the country per KenPom and they average 78 possessions per game, 2nd in the nation. The problem with that is, they are playing a much better team on the road and that allowed La Tech to have a number of extra offensive possessions as well. In a game where you are a heavy underdog, you don’t want to give the favorite more opportunities to pull away. There are only 2 other teams in CUSA ranked in the top 100 in tempo and the Bulldogs beat those teams by 40 & 14 points. On top of that, Western has been a poor road team not winning a single away game in conference play (0-3 SU). The Topper prefer to play inside the arc with 57% of their points coming for 2 point land (29th most nationally). The problem here is, Louisiana Tech limits their opponents to 2 point FG% of just 42% which is the best mark in the entire country. This will be WKY’s 3rd game in 7 days while LT has had a full week off to get ready and rest for this game. La Tech wins this one by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks +3.5 or +4 at Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The Bucks have been on the road since Jan 29th and are playing with a day off after a loss in Utah. Phoenix meanwhile is returning home for their first game after a long 7-game road trip, and we like to fade teams in this situation. Prior to the extended road trip, the Suns had won two straight at home over Chicago and Indiana, but both were close and decided by 2 and 7-points. The Bucks are 1-3 SU on this trip and after that embarrassing loss in Utah we like them to bounce back here. Milwaukee sat Khris Middleton as a precaution in their last game, but he’s expected back for this game. The Bucks have an offensive efficiency advantage as they average 1.208 points per possession compared to the Suns who average 1.188PPP. Defensively the Suns have a slight edge allowing 1.160PPP compared to the Buck who give up 1.172PPP. Milwaukee has an edge when it comes to 3-point shooting though as they rank 7th best in 3PT% and the Suns rank 4th. But the Bucks defend the Arc much better, holding opponents to the 6th lowest 3PT% in the league at 35.1% compared to a Phoenix team that ranks 17th in 3PT% D. Milwaukee has won 3 straight in the series and 7 of the last eight. We expect that trend to continue and will ride the Bucks here plus the points.

#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma +1 over BYU, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened with BYU as a 1 point favorite and our power ratings have Oklahoma favored so we’ll grab the Sooners at home. OU started the season winning 15 of their first 18 games and now they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 which is why we are getting some value here. This is the first time this season that the Sooners have been a home dog (again if the opener holds as BYU favored). They’ve already been favored at home over Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech, among others. They are catching BYU playing their 2nd of back to back road games after the Cougars won @ WVU (worst team in the Big 12) on Saturday. That improved BYU’s record in true road games to just 2-3 on the year but those 2 wins came against WVU (as we mentioned) and UCF, 2 of the 4 Big 12 teams ranked outside the top 65 nationally. Oklahoma will be the 2nd highest rated team (per KenPom) that BYU has faced on the road this year, 2nd only to Baylor who topped the Cougs by 9 points. They were 4.5 point dogs in that road game and now favored vs a OU team that sits only 8 spots lower than Baylor in the KenPom ratings. Tough travel for BYU here having traveled from the west coast to the east coast to take on WVU and now they go straight to the south for a game only a few days later. They might be without starting big man Khalifa, who has an illness & a minor injury and is not currently in Oklahoma with the team. BYU relies as heavily as any team in the country on the 3 point shot (2nd most attempts in the nation) and they are facing an Oklahoma defense that ranks 5th in the nation allowing just 28% from deep while allowing just 63 PPG at home. This is a must win, get right spot for OU at home and we like them to win this one.

ASA top play on Cleveland Cavaliers -5 vs Sacramento Kings, 7 PM ET - We missed our last bet against the Kings but will double down with the Cavs here. Scheduling certainly favors the Cavs in this matchup as the Kings are playing their 7th straight road game in 12 days. Sacramento jumped out to a big lead against the Bulls the other night, but the fatigue factor showed late in the game. The Bulls came all the way back from down 30 in the 3rd quarter to down 3-points late in the game. The Cavs have been off for a few days and have been playing well the past few weeks with 5-straight wins and 9 of their last ten. Cleveland have won 7 straight home games and all but one have come by 5 or more points. The Cavs don’t have a great overall home record at 17-8 SU but do own an average +/- of +5PPG. Sacramento is 15-11 SU away from home this season with an average differential of +1.6PPG. Cleveland owns the 4th best FG% defense in the NBA allowing 45.5% shooting to opponents. They also defend the 3-point line well, ranking 8th best in foes 3PT% against. The Kings on the other hand have struggled on the defensive end of the court allowing teams to shoot 48.4% which is 21st worst in the league. They don’t defend the 3PT line either, ranking 29th in that defensive category. The Cavs lost at Sacramento earlier this season but this is a shot at revenge and they make the most of this favorable spot! Cleveland delivers the revenge payback! Lay the points.

#858 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -9.5 over Nebraska, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Huskers are coming off a massive, energy draining home win over then #6 Wisconsin. It took a huge comeback from Nebraska to pick up that OT win as they trailed at one point by 19 points and were down 16 at halftime. That was on Thursday night not giving them much time to recoup and re-energize for this road game. Illinois, on the other hand, won by double digits @ Ohio State on Tuesday so they’ve had 2 extra days to rest and prepare. The Huskers have been fantastic at home beating the likes of Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan State. However, when they’ve taken to the road, they’ve been terrible. They are 0-5 SU & ATS on the road in Big 10 play with every loss but 1 (vs Rutgers) coming by double digits. Their average margin of defeat on the road in conference play is 14.5 points and now they face one of the top few teams in the league and we expect another double digit loss. The Illini are back at full strength with leading scorer Shannon (20 PPG) back in the lineup after missing 6 straight games in January. Since his return they are 3-1 with their only loss coming in OT @ Northwestern. Illinois sits in 3rd place behind Purdue & Wisconsin and those 2 meet today so a chance for U of I to gain ground on one of those 2 teams with a win here. The Huskers live and die by the 3 taking more shots from beyond the arc than anyone else in the Big 10. This will be a tough task for them as they don’t shoot it as well on the road and they are facing an Illinois defense that allows just 31% from deep overall and just 27% at home. Watch the Huskers run out of gas in the 2nd half and Illinois pulls away for a big win.

#846 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Furman -3.5 over UNC Greensboro, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Furman remains undervalued right now in our opinion. This team won the SoCon last year and returned most of their key contributors that beat Virginia in the NCAA tourney last year before losing to San Diego State who went on to play in the National Championship game. The problem this year with the Paladins is they have rarely had everyone available with a multitude of injuries creating problems with continuity. That includes their top 3 scorers all missing time this season, including top scorer Foster (19 PPG) who recently returned after a 9 game absence. This team was 28-8 last season and they are sitting at 12-10 right now, however they are healthy with everyone on board and have been for a few weeks now. That’s why they are on a current 6-1 run which started in early January. During that stretch they’ve faced the 2 highest rated teams in the SoCon (per KenPom), Samford and Western Carolina, and beat both of them. Greensboro sits in 2nd place in the conference one game behind Samford and with a win here, Furman can move into a tie for 2nd place. UNCG is 7-2 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in league play. These 2 met back in December and UNCG won by 9 but Furman, as we mentioned their injuries, played that game without their top 3 scorers (Foster, Williams, and Pegues) who are all back and healthy now. They are undefeated at home in conference play despite their injury issues, and the Paladins have won 15 of their last 16 games here at Timmons Arena. Last year they were favored by 6 at home vs UNCG and now only laying 3.5 with basically the same team. We’ll call for Furman to win and cover this small number.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - There is something going on with this spread and looks to us as if the Oddsmakers are begging you to take the Mavericks at home plus the points. With more tickets and money being placed on the Mavs the line should not be going up in favor of Milwaukee. The Bucks are coming off two straight losses in new head coach Doc Rivers coaching debuts but have now had time to acclimate to his new systems. This Bucks team is one of the five best teams in the NBA, and they have lost 3-games in a row just two times in the past three regular seasons. Dallas is coming off a horrible showing in Minnesota in their last game which resulted in a 87-121 blowout loss. Dallas played without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in that game but should have Doncic back here. The Mavs have lost three straight at home as Underdogs to the Kings, Suns and Celtics with all three losses coming by 5 or more points. Milwaukee has the better offensive efficiency numbers and better defensive efficiency numbers despite it being a down year for them on the defensive end of the court. Milwaukee has won and covered 3 straight against Dallas and 4 of the last five. Lay the points with the Bucks.

#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -2.5 over Florida, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Great situation spot here for the Aggies. They are coming off a home loss vs Ole Miss 71-68 as an 8 point favorite last Saturday and they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this one. They are facing the Gators who’ve been a bit lucky winning back to back games in OT including @ Kentucky on Wednesday evening. In their win over UK the Gators hit a 3 pointer as time expired to send the game to OT and won 94-91 in the extra session. The Wildcats were undermanned in that loss as they played without 2 starters (Edwards & Wagner) who combine to average over 20 PPG. Now after that huge road win Florida is on the road again only a few days later and they have a huge home game with Auburn next. That was just the 2nd road win this year for Florida (2-3 record) and just their 2nd road win vs a top 100 team since the start of last season. In their 5 road games, Florida is shooting just 39% on offense and their defense has allowed 86 PPG in those games. A&M is 12-8 on the year but half of their losses have come by 6 points or fewer including taking Houston (#1 KenPom team) to the wire on the road before losing by 4. Coming off a home loss, the Aggies are now in a must win spot at home with 3 of their next 4 games on the road. They’ve won 25 of their last 29 home games. A&M was just an 8 point favorite here vs an Ole Miss team that has an 18-3 record. They were -3 here vs Kentucky a few weeks ago (a 5 point A&M win) who is rated 10 spots higher than Florida. This line is off (opened -1.5). Should be higher so we’re catching some solid value with a desperate home team.

#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -4.5 over Utah State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This has been a good situation for us this year taking an unranked home team as a favorite vs a rated road team. The fact is, ranked teams on the road have been a big time money burner this season with a 58-80 ATS record. USU steps into this game with a 19-2 overall record and ranked #17 in the polls yet they are a fairly significant underdog here (SDSU opened -5). That in and of itself speaks volumes. The Aztecs are 16-5 on the year and they’ve played the much tougher overall schedule (11th SOS nationally). KenPom actually has San Diego State rated higher than Utah State despite the records and we agree with that assessment. All 5 of the Aztecs losses have come on the road vs teams currently ranked in the top 65. Their most recent game was a 79-71 loss @ Colorado State (we were on CSU) on Tuesday night. Now they have a chance to bounce back at home where they are pretty much unbeatable with a 10-0 record this year and a 48-2 record their last 50 at home. SDSU has responded nicely with wins after each of their losses this season including 4 of those 5 wins coming by double digits. All 10 of the Aztecs home wins this year have come by double digits with an average final score of 77-59. They rank #1 in the Mountain West in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. This is a must win for them as they sit at 5-3 in league play and Utah State is 7-1. SDSU cannot drop another game behind the conference leader. The Aggies are 3-1 in conference road games but they’ve been shaky away from home despite that record. Their lone easy win away from home was @ Air Force, by far the worst team in the conference. Their other road games were a 13 points loss @ New Mexico, a 1 point win @ UNLV in a game they trailed throughout and never led by more than 1 point, and an OT win @ Boise, again come from behind late to force OT. Their efficiency numbers on both ends of the court drop off quite a bit on the road. Since joining the MWC back in 2014, Utah State has faced San Diego State on the road 8 times. They are 0-8 SU in those games with 7 of the losses coming by at least 10 points. We like SDSU at home on Saturday.

#608 ASA PLAY ON 8* St John’s +3.5 over UConn, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We faded St John’s earlier this week @ Xavier and picked up a winner as they lost by 11. That was a perfect spot to go against the Johnnies who haven’t been great no the road and were playing a Xavier team that was blasted by UConn in their previous game so the Musketeers came out with a purpose and picked up a home win. Now we’re getting STJ at home off a loss against a Husky team that is at the top of their market right now. Connecticut has won 9 straight games since losing @ Seton Hall back on December 20th and we think this number is a bit inflated because of that. The Huskies have been dominant at home for the most part but they’ve had some very close calls on the road beating Butler by 7, Xavier by 5, and Villanova by 1 along with their 15 points loss @ Seton Hall in Big East play. The Johnnies will be the highest rated conference foe (per KenPom) that UConn has played on the road this season. The Huskies may also be without a key player (Alex Karaban) who is not 100%. St John’s is 4-1 at home in Big East play with their only loss coming by 1 point vs Marquette in a game STJ was without one of their key players Jordan Dingle. These 2 already faced off @ Connecticut and the Red Storm gave the Huskies everything they could handle in a 69-65 loss. That was despite STJ shooting only 38% and making only 4 of 18 three point shots. The Johnnies are 5-5 in league play but they’ve played the toughest schedule in the conference already facing the top 3 teams, UConn, Marquette, and Creighton, all down to the wire games losing by 4, 1, and 1 respectively. STJ is much improved this year (4th rated team in the Big East) and they gave UConn fits last year splitting with the eventual National Champions. We expect this to go to the wire so take the points with St John’s.