ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Minnesota -6 over Indiana, Wed at 9 PM ET

Huge game for both teams but we fully trust Minnesota will show up and play as if it is a must win game and we’re not so sure about Indiana.  The Gophers played very well on Sunday vs Iowa leading for most of the game until a late offensive drought sent them to a 58-55 loss.  They led Iowa by 8 points with 5:00 minutes remaining and were outscored 11-0 from that point on.  On the other hand, Indiana was in a must win on Sunday as well and they didn’t show up at all.  Michigan blitzed the Hoosiers 89-65 and we’re hearing there are some internal problems with the IU team.  They play 3 of their next 4 on the road and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they completely take themselves out of NCAA contention during this stretch.  They’ve been horrible on the road which isn’t a surprise.  They are a young team and didn’t play a single true road game in the non-conference to prepare them for what they might see on the road in the Big 10.  IU is just 1-5 SU (1-5 ATS) on the road in conference play averaging just 61 PPG while allowing 74 PPG.  Their only road win came @ Nebraska, the lowest ranked team in the conference, and they’ve won just 7 of their last 30 road games.  They have lost by at least 9 points in each of their 5 road setbacks.  The Gophers have some solid home wins over Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State and we see no reason they don’t roll over Indiana here. With both of these teams on the bubble, this might be the game that gets one of them in and leaves one of them out.  We trust Minnesota to get it done at home on Wednesday.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -1 over Michigan, Wed at 7 PM ET

Rutgers has been a fabulous home team this year and we expect that to continue tonight.  They are a perfect 17-0 at the RAC this season (12-4 ATS) winning by an average score of 73-57.  With 3 of their final 4 games on the road where they are 1-6 SU on the season, this becomes a huge home game for the NCAA hopes.  Michigan has been playing much better as of late winning 5 of their last 6, however their only 2 road games during that stretch were @ Northwestern and @ Nebraska, the 2 worst teams in the conference.  Beyond those 2 road wins, the Wolverines have lost all 4 of their other conference roadies @ Iowa, @ Minnesota, @ Michigan State, and @ Illinois.  They also could be without starter Isaiah Livers here as he was injured in their Sunday win at home over Indiana.  That would be a huge loss as he just came back from injury on February 8th after missing 8 games.  Michigan was just 3-5 SU in the conference games Livers missed.  These 2 met on February 1st on a neutral site (NYC) with Michigan winning a tight game 69-63.  However, a close look at the numbers indicate that despite shooting poorly, Rutgers was right in the game to the end.  The Knights hit only 33% of their shots, made just 25% of their 3-pointers and made only 3 FT’s.  Michigan, on the other hand, shot 47% overall and from three along with making 16 FT’s yet the game came to the wire.  That’s because Rutgers dominated the boards with 51 rebounds including gathering nearly 50% of their misses (offensive rebounds).  We expect them to control the glass again here at home and we have no doubt they’ll shoot much better.  That should lead to another home win for Rutgers who continues to be undervalued (11-4 ATS in their Big 10 games).  We simply need the Scarlet Knights to win this one at home and we like them to move to 18-0 at the RAC.  Take Rutgers.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON East Tennessee State -5.5 over Furman, Wed at 7 PM ET

The winner of this game walks away in 1st place in the Southern Conference as both teams enter with a 12-2 record.  The top 3 teams in this league by a wide margin are ETSU, Furman, and UNC Greensboro.  So we like to take a look at how these two teams fared vs UCNG this season.  ETSU beat UNCG by 7 on the road and by 17 at home.  Furman has faced Greensboro just once this season losing by 13 at home.  Furman has a very solid 9-4 road record, however not one of those wins has come against a team ranked inside the top 150 (ETSU is ranked 56th) and 6 of those 9 road teams have come against teams ranked 225th or lower.  East Tennessee State is 14-1 SU at home this year and they have won 38 of their last 46 home games. Their average margin of victory at home this year is 20 points and this is a program that has won at least 24 points in 4 straight seasons and they are 23-4 this year including an 11-point win @ LSU who is currently tied for 2nd place in the SEC with Auburn.  The Buccaneers played a poor game over the weekend struggling to beat a bad VMI team on the road in what was an obviously look ahead spot.  They picked up the win in the end and played without one of the top players in the Southern Conference, Bo Hodges, but he is back and ready to go here.  These two met @ Furman earlier this year with the host winning by 9.  Furman shot significantly better than ETSU in that game and also made 7 more FT’s.  That continued a recent trend of the host winning easily in this series with each of the last 4 meetings being decided by at least 9 points with the home team coming out on top in each.  The last 2 meetings here saw the Buccaneers win by 23 and 11 points.  We have ETSU ranked a full 25 spots ahead of Furman and with revenge, a home game, and 1st place on the line we think they cover this number.     

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON St Louis Blues Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over New Jersey Devils, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Devils are expected to start Louis Domingue here.  When Mackenzie Blackwood has started between the pipes New Jersey has been very competitive.  However, in Dominque's last 4 starts the Devils are 0-4 and he has allowed 14 goals in his last 3 starts!  St Louis allowed a late goal at Nashville Saturday and that was the deciding goal in a tough 2-1 loss.  The Blues need to snap their losing streak and this is the perfect opportunity to do it.  St Louis is facing a struggling goalie and they are on home ice and Jordan Binnington is expected to get the start in the crease for the Blues.  Binnington is 16-4-5 with a 2.29 GAA in his home starts this season.  Of course St Louis is a very price-heavy fave in this spot but we get around that by utilizing the puck line in this match-up.  The Blues must win by 2 or more goals but then there is no juice to lay in this match-up.  14 of the last 20 wins for St Louis have come by 2 or more goals.  20 of the Devils last 28 losses have come by 2 or more goals.  Laying the 1.5 goals with St Louis is the value play here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Eastern Michigan +3 over Kent State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

After starting the MAC season losing 7 straight games, EMU has now won 4 of 5 and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  Their only loss in their last 5 games was @ Akron by a final score of 59-58.  It was actually an impressive loss as Akron is the highest rated team in the MAC (70th) and the only team ranked inside the top 100.  They were even showing signs of breaking out during their 7 game conference losing streak with 5 of those losses coming by 6 points or less.  The oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough for EMU’s improvement as they have now covered 6 of their last 7 games with their only ATS loss during that stretch coming by a single point.  Kent is on the opposite track.  After starting the MAC schedule with a perfect 3-0 record, they are just 4-5 their last 9 games.  They are also 3-3 on the road in MAC play with two of those wins coming vs Western Michigan and Miami (OH), the two lowest rated teams in the conference.  The Golden Flashes have been favored on the road in MAC play 3 times this season and lost all 3 outright!  EMU has one of the better defenses in the nation (38th in defensive efficiency) and in conference play they are allowing just 0.95 PPG (2nd in the MAC).  While their shooting numbers for the season are not great, they seemed to have turn the corner on that end of the court with their current 5 game run.  During that span they are shooting 48% while allowing their opponents to hit only 37% of their shots.  This is a situation where an undervalued team, with an outstanding defense, playing at their peak is getting points at home.  Always a solid spot and we like Eastern Michigan to win this game at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -5 over Iowa, Sunday at 1 PM ET

The Gophs have had a full week off to get ready for this must win home game.  Minnesota sits squarely on the bubble (11th or 12th Big Ten team) and they cannot afford to lose this game.  They’ve been very good at home with their only Big 10 loss here at the Barn coming to Michigan State.  Since that home loss to Sparty the Gophers are just 1-2 SU (both losses on the road) but they are playing well.  In their last 3 they blasted Wisconsin here by 18 points and then took both Illinois and Penn State, two of the top teams in the conference, to the wire on the road.  They showed us a lot in their most recent game last week @ Penn State (currently in 1st place in the Big 10) when they got down big early in the 2nd half and battled back to almost get the win.  They cut the lead to 3 points with 4:30 remaining and lost by 6 vs a PSU team that is on an 8 game winning streak.  Iowa, like many Big 10 teams, has been great at home, but not good on the road.  They have a grand total of one conference road win and that was @ Northwestern.  They just lost by 12 @ Indiana on Thursday and now play on the road again just a few days later.  Their last 3 conference road games have resulted in losses by margins of 12, 36, and 10 points.  They also lost @ Nebraska this season, the lowest rated team in the league.  The Hawkeyes will also most likely be without one of their top players on Sunday as starting guard CJ Fredrick injured his ankle on Thursday @ Indiana and is doubtful here.  Iowa blasted Minnesota by 20 points in their meeting in Iowa City this season giving the Gophs some extra incentive here.  The home team has won 6 straight in this series with the favorite covering 5 in a row.  The road woes continue for Iowa as Minnesota gets a much needed win.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON DePaul +9 over Creighton, Friday at 7:30 PM ET

We like the value and the situation with DePaul  in this game.  These two met just a few weeks ago @ DePaul and the Blue Demons were actually favored by 2 in that game.  That tells us they should be +6 or +7 here so we’re getting some value on the Demons.  Creighton won that game in DePaul making 10 three pointers (DePaul was just 3 of 17 from deep) and 23 FT’s (DePaul made 17).  The Blue Demons won the battle on the boards and pulled down a solid 34% of their missed shots with offensive rebounds.  That won’t change here as the Blue Demons are solid on the glass while the Blue Jays are a very poor rebounding team.  The Blue Demons also played that game without one of their top players (Jaylen Butz) and he is back at full strength for this one.  DePaul is also very good defensively which is one thing we like to see in a hefty underdog.  They rank 49th nationally in defensive efficiency and 65th in eFG% defense, both much better than Creighton.  While the Jays have the edge offensively, we think DePaul can keep this close as they seemingly always do.  They are 7-3 ATS this year as an underdog and despite their very misleading 1-10 Big East record, the Demons have played tight on the road vs Villanova (lost in OT), Marquette (lost by 3), Seton Hall (lost by 7), Georgetown (lost by 4), and @ St Johns (lost by 7).  Thus, they have not lost a single conference road game by more than 7 and have had opportunities to knock off many of the best teams in the conference away from home.  They catch Creighton coming off a monumental road win @ Seton Hall on Wednesday.  The Jays gave the Pirates just their 2nd Big East loss this season.  Creighton also has a huge game on deck with Marquette.  Don’t be surprised if the Blue Jays go through the motions here vs a team they’ve already beaten.  That would be a mistake because DePaul has had a full week off to prepare and they’ve been a very tough out in conference play.  Take the hefty points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Baylor -5.5 over West Virginia, Saturday at 4 PM ET

This game sets up perfectly for Baylor in our opinion.  The Bears are coming off a win @ Texas which was their 21st consecutive win.  Their only loss of the season was by 3 points vs Washington way back on November 8th.  Many still seem to doubt this Baylor team and this is a statement game for them playing a WVU team that is ranked 12th in the country with an 18-6 record.  Getting a few extra days to prepare after having played on Monday is a bonus as well.  The Mountaineers, on the other hand, just played on Wednesday night.  Not only did they play on Wednesday but it was their biggest home game of the year as they took on Kansas.  The Mountaineers led for nearly the entire first half (6 point lead at half) and still held a lead with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game before KU went on an 18-3 run over the final 9:00 minutes of the game to knock off WVU 58-49 (Baylor won by 12 @ Kansas in their only meeting this year).  It was a devastating home loss that took a lot out of this team physically and emotionally after leading for much of the game.  Now they have to go on the road a few days later to face one of the top teams in the nation that is 11-0 at home holding teams to just 56 PPG on 36% shooting.  This is a young West Virginia team (3 sophomore starters & a freshman starter) that has been bad on the road this year.  They have 6 losses this year and 5 of them have come on the road.  They are just 1-4 SU in Big 12 road games this season with their only win coming @ Oklahoma State, the lowest rated team in the conference.  Recently their head coach Bob Huggins had to get on his team about focus and effort because they are so young and inconsistent on the road.  They are already a poor shooting team (42% good for 238th nationally & 30% from deep good for 319th nationally) and it gets worse on the road where they make only 38% of their shots.  That’s a problem here as they are facing a Baylor team that is lock down defensively ranking 4th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th nationally in eFG% defense.  This is simply a bad match up for WVU as well.  They thrive on creating turnovers (1st in the Big 12) which leads to easy baskets which is key because they are not a good shooting team.  Baylor only turns the ball over 17% of the time in conference play which is 2nd least in the league.  The Bears also capitalize by getting to the FT line much more than their opponents as 22% of their points in conference play come from the charity stripe (most in the Big 12).  However, Baylor doesn’t foul much and when WVU gets to the line they only make 62% of them (331st nationally).  Lastly the Mountaineers usually dominate the boards which leads to easy points, however the Bears are a solid rebounding team (4th best offensive rebounding team in the nation) so they should hold their own on the boards.  Last year Baylor was laying 12 points in this home match up vs West Virginia and this line is much lower despite this being a much better team this season.  We understand the Mountaineers are better this year as well, however we feel they are overvalued due to their home dominance.  This young team has slipped up on the road often this year and now they play the best team they’ve seen this season (maybe Kansas although Baylor won by 12 @ KU as we mentioned).  Double digit win here for Baylor.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Notre Dame +12.5 over Duke, Saturday at 4 PM ET

Way too many points here in our opinion for a Duke team that is overvalued vs a Notre Dame team that is undervalued.  The Irish are 15-9 SU but a very solid 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog in ACC play.  Their conference losses have come by margins of 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, and 11 points.  The 11 point loss was in the season opener @ UNC way back on November 6th.  They already have 3 road wins in ACC play @ Syracuse, @ Clemson, and @ Georgia Tech.  They are catching Duke in an ideal spot for a letdown as the Devils are off an OT road win @ arch rival UNC and a 5-point home win over FSU who sits just 1 game below Duke in the ACC standings.  The Devils also have a big game on deck with in-state rival NC State.  While Duke is 11-2 in conference play, they have been far from dominant with 7 of their 11 wins coming by fewer than 12 points (which is tonight’s spread vs Notre Dame).  Three of those four wins have come vs Miami (twice) and BC, the 2 worst teams in the ACC.  Duke has actually already lost 2 home games this year vs Stephen F Austin and Louisville.  They are also just 5-7 ATS as a favorite in ACC play.  Notre Dame is playing very well right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming in OT @ Virginia.  They are a veteran team with 4 seniors in the starting line up that hasn’t been fazed by road games.  They have an efficient offense ranking 3rd in the ACC in offensive efficiency so they definitely shoot well enough to hang with Duke.  They have taken the two other highly rated teams in the ACC (Louisville and FSU) to the wire in their meeting this year and we don’t see Duke pulling away here.  We like the Irish to give Duke a run here in Durham with Duke winning but by single digits.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Richmond -1.5 over VCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET

Revenger for Richmond from just a few weeks ago when they were embarrassed @ VCU 87-68.  The Rams shot 50% for the game and nearly 50% from beyond the arc in that win.  Richmond, 18-6 on the season, simply played a poor game and did so without starting forward Blake Francis on the floor as he recently missed 6 games due to an injury including their loss @ VCU.  Francis is now back on the court and has really given the Spiders a lift in his 2 games since returning with 32 points, both road wins vs Fordham and LaSalle.  Remember this is a big rivalry game with both teams located in Richmond, Virginia so you can bet the Spiders have been waiting for this one.  VCU is trending downward losing 2 of their last 3 including a 5 point home loss on Wednesday to George Mason as a 14 point favorite.  Starting guard Marcus Evans injured his knee in the game and may not play here.  If so, he might be on a limited minutes restriction.  Richmond has better efficiency numbers in conference play both offensively and defensively.  They also are very good at taking care of the ball (15% turnover rated good for 13th nationally) which will counteract what VCU does best and that is create turnovers.  Because the Rams like to play aggressive defense with pressure, they in turn commit a lot of fouls.  In fact, they foul more than any other team in the Atlantic 10 conference.  That plays right into Richmond’s game as they shoot 78% from the line on the year which is the 9th best mark in the country.  We like this match up for Richmond and now that they are back to full strength we’ll lay the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UCLA -8 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET

The Bruins have hit their stride and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  After losing 6 of 7 in a stretch that spanned from mid December to mid January, new head coach Mick Cronin, who came over from Cincinnati, got on his team about effort and defense.  They have since won 5 of their last 7 games holding 4 of their opponents under 60 points.  UCLA is coming off an impressive road win @ Arizona topping the Cats by 13 points.  They also beat Colorado in late January meaning they’ve topped the 2 highest rated teams in the Pac 12 over the last 2 weeks.  On Thursday they face a Washington State team that has been terrible on the road and is off an emotional win over their in-state rivals Washington.  That game was at home where the Cougs have been solid, however on the road they are 1-5 on the season with their only win coming @ Idaho who currently is ranked below 300.  Their 4 Pac 12 road losses have come by margins of 26, 22, 12, and 7 points with their closest road loss coming vs Cal who is the worst team in the conference.  They are averaging just 64 PPG on 39% shooting in their 6 road games.  UCLA should have a little extra motivation as well after blowing a 9 point halftime lead @ Wazzou losing in OT.  That was also in the midst of the stretch where the Bruins were playing their worst basketball of the season.  Washington State may also be without forward Aljaz Kunc (questionable with an injury) who has started 18 games this year and scored 12 points and had 4 rebounds in their first meeting with UCLA.  The host has covered 10 of the last 13 in this series and we like UCLA to win this one by double digits. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET

#644 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET

We had Texas State as the favorite in the Sun Belt entering the season with many key players back from a team that was 24-10 last season.  After a rough 0-3 start to the season, the Bobcats are now in a groove winning 8 of their last 11.  Over the weekend they lost a tough game at a surging App State team but we can put an asterisk by that one.  That’s because Texas State played that game without leading scoring Nijal Pearson (20 PPG) who is already the school’s all time leading scorer.  After beating Coastal Carolina 100-63 (yes that score is correct) on the road last Thursday, Pearson had to leave the team for their game @ App State due to the birth of his daughter.  He is back and ready to go tonight.  Even with Pearson gone, the Bobcats still nearly knocked off one of the hottest teams in the Sun Belt on the road.  Texas State led by 18 in the first half and App State took their first 2nd half lead with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the 60-57 Bobcat loss.  Tonight they face first place Arkansas Little Rock.  The Trojans are 12-2 in the Sun Belt, however they’ve played the easiest schedule in the conference thus far and there is a reason they are an underdog here.  In fact, despite their league records (8-6 for Texas State / 12-2 for UALR) we have Texas State rated as the best team in the conference (so does Ken Pomeroy).  The Bobcats are #1 in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency and they turn the ball over less than any other team.  They also create the most turnovers in the conference (22% defensive turnover rate) and that’s not a good thing for a UALR team that coughs the ball up 22% of the time which is 11th in the Sun Belt.  The Trojans have played only ONE road game since January 18th (4 home games during that stretch) and that was a 2 point win @ South Alabama, the 7th rated team in the conference.  These two met back in early January and the line was pick-em @ UALR.  Now Texas State is laying only 3 to 3.5 points at home.  In that game the Bobcats led by 15 in the first half and led for much of the 2nd half but came up short losing 72-68.   Little Rock shot 53% in that game (Texas State shot 40%) and made 4 more FT’s yet the game still went down to the wire.  Now we get who we feel is the best team in the conference, in a revenge spot, at home with a low number, and playing their best basketball of the season.  We like Texas State to roll in this game.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Golden State +7.5 over Phoenix, Wed at 9 PM ET

We like to play on the Suns when they are a dog and against them when favored. The Warriors have to look at this game as very winnable which is rarely the case for the 12 win team. Golden State has one of the worst average road point differentials in the NBA but the Suns home MOV is barely above zero. The Suns are just 2-4 SU their last six at home and 5-6 their last eleven. Of those five home wins only one has come by more than 8-points. Golden State has lost three straight games but the two most recent games against the Heat and Lakers were very competitive. In their previous five road games they have a pair of wins over Washington and Cleveland. These teams have split the season series so far but the Warriors have covered 4 of the last five meetings in Phoenix. This is too many points for the Suns to cover and we’ll take the dog and Golden State in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6 over Butler, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

These 2 are trending in opposite directions.  After starting the Big East season with a 3-0 record, the Butler Bulldogs have since lost 5 of their last 8 games with their wins coming by just 3, 4, and 5 points.  Four of their five least efficient performances this season have come since January 18th including two this month.  Xavier comes into this game having won 4 of their last 6 games with their losses coming to Marquette by 2 in OT and @ Creighton.  That 6 game run includes two road wins @ Seton Hall by 12 (#1 team in the Big East) and @ DePaul by 8.  Their defense has been lock down as of late holding their last 5 opponents to 38% shooting overall and just 28% from deep.  They have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 62 points or less.  Butler’s defense is headed south.  For the season they look great ranking 29th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP.  However, a closer look reveals in Big East play they have allowed 1.05 PPP which puts them in 9th place in that category in the 10 team conference.  For comparison’s sake Xavier ranks 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 4th in Big East play.  The Bulldogs have an impressive 18-6 overall record (5 of those losses have come in the last 8 games as we mentioned) but for the season they are only winning by an average of 7 PPG.  In conference play the are actually scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 70 PPG for a -2 per game point differential.  This has been a closely contested series with the last 7 meetings resulting in margins of 5, 1, 5, 7, 5, 9, and 5 points.  Butler is 0-4-1 ATS their last 5 as a favorite and we think Xavier has a solid shot at the outright win.  Take the points.

ASA play on: Houston Rockets -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 9:30PM ET

You couldn’t really ask for a better spot to play on Houston and fade Boston. The Rockets are off a loss (two in fact) and have historically done well when coming off a beat. Since 2016 there isn’t a better team in the NBA than Houston when coming off a loss as they are 71-34 SU or 68% winners. Boston on the other hand is coming off a solid road win in Oklahoma City. The Celtics are 4-1 SU their last five road contests but two of those wins were against 15-40 Atlanta and 23-31 Orlando. The Celtics have some great road statistics including an average margin of victory of +4.2PPG but if you dig deeper you find they are just 1-5 SU on the road against the top 5 teams in the West and East. The Rockets are 18-8 SU at home with the 8th best MOV at +7.6PPG. This is a great spot to play on the Rockets as a very small home favorite. Lay it!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia -4.5 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

UVA has had their ups and downs this season after winning the National Championship last year.  Tony Bennett is a fantastic coach and we knew the Cavs would start playing well at some point and then we could take advantage of them being undervalued due to their full season results.  We’ve reached that point tonight.  UVA has won 3 of their last 4 and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  In that 4 game stretch they beat FSU (3rd ranked team in the ACC) here by 5 and just lost a tight game @ Louisville (2nd ranked team in the ACC) over the weekend despite having a lead with 3:00 minutes remaining.  The Cards made 11 more FT’s in that 7 point win and scored a ridiculous 1.36 points per possession on a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in that category allowing 0.866 PPP.  It was by far Virginia’s worst defensive performance of the season and the 80 points allowed was a full 10 points more than their previous high.  Even with that they had a shot to win.  That’s because they scored 1.24 points per possession vs a top notch Louisville defense.  It was the Cavaliers top offensive performance of the season and we think they take the momentum and play very well at home offensively tonight.  Especially vs a Notre Dame defense that ranks 14th in the ACC in defensive efficiency (league games).  On the other end of the court, we look for Bennett to have his team playing outstanding defense tonight after their poor performance over the weekend.  The Irish have won 4 straight, however 3 came at home and all 4 were against lower tier ACC teams – all power rated 7th or lower in the league.  Notre Dame is also coming off a big road win over Clemson (12th rated team in the ACC) which was on Sunday giving the Irish very little time to prepare for this one.  With Virginia emerging and this line set much lower than past meetings here (UVA was -16.5 last year) we like the Cavs to win and cover.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Purdue -5 over Penn State, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET

#602 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -5 over Penn State, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET

Penn State is on a very solid 6-0 run but we feel this is the spot where it comes to an end.  They are playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 and they might be without one of their top players.  2nd leading scorer Myreon Jones (14 PPG) missed Saturday’s 83-77 home win over Minnesota due to an illness.  His status is up in the air for Tuesday’s game @ Purdue.  If you’re going to beat the Boilers on their home court you need to be at full strength and be at the top of your game.  Purdue has absolutely destroyed a number of very good teams at home this year.  They topped Virginia by 29, Michigan State by 29, Iowa by 36, and Wisconsin by 19.  The Boilers offensive numbers at home have been great averaging 78 PPG on 48% shooting and nearly 42% from beyond the arc.  They should be able to take advantage of a PSU defense that allowed 74 PPG on the road and ranks 9th in the Big 10 (conference games) at defending the arc.  Defensively at home Purdue has held all but one opponent under 70 points (in regulation) in Big 10 play including limiting 3 of those conference opponents to 51 points or less.  They are just a completely different team at home.  They have struggled for much of the year on the road but we really like the fact they won by 12 @ Indiana over the weekend which tells us they are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  This PSU team is solid but they are a bit overvalued due to their 6 game run.  They are a poor rebounding team which doesn’t bode well vs PU, the #1 offensive rebounding team in the conference.  Purdue is 9-3 ATS this year as a home favorite and they’ve won 15 straight here vs Penn State.  Take the Boilers at home in this one.

ASA play on: Phoenix Suns +12.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

We love the double-digits here with the Suns and predict a close game throughout here. The Lakers are off a few big games including a hard-fought win over Golden State and have a much bigger game on deck in Denver. L.A. has already beaten this Suns team twice this season so focus will be an issue. In the most recent Lakers 10-point home win on January 1st the Lakers jumped out to a 26-point lead after one quarter but the Suns battled the rest of the way to earn a cover. The Lakers are a public team and over-priced most nights, but tonight they are laying a hefty number. L.A. is just 8-10-1 ATS when laying double digits this season and have an average margin of victory at home of +9.2PPG. Phoenix has been very respectable on the road this season with an 11-14 SU record and the 12th best average road differential of minus -2.4PPG. The Suns are off a loss and have a solid 17-14-1 ATS record this season when coming off a beat. We like the spot to grab the points with Phoenix.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET

The money and tickets are flowing in on the Nuggets yet the line on this game has dropped a full point at some Sports Books. We will go contrarian here and bet the Underdog Spurs plus the points. San Antonio has lost 4 straight to kick off their annual Rodeo road trip but now they get a chance to face the team that knocked them out of the playoffs a season ago. San Antonio was recently a 9-point dog in L.A. against the Clippers so you can see for yourself this line is higher than it should be. The last time the Nuggets were favored by 7 to 7.5-points at home was against the Hawks and Kings, who are worse than the Spurs in overall efficiency ratings. Yes, we know the Nuggets are playing well right now, but they have also faced a very tough 10-game stretch that has featured some of the leagues best or hottest teams. We predict a letdown here against the team they eliminated a year ago and who aren’t the same Spurs team as they’ve been in the past. Denver wins at home by an average of +5.9PPG, while the Spurs road differential is minus -4PPG so both of those numbers get us a cover with the underdog in this contes. When catching +7.5 or more points this season the Spurs are 5-1 ATS, while Denver is just 6-8-2 ATS when laying -7.5 or more points. The Spurs are 17-7 ATS the last 24 in Denver. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Florida State +8 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET

We’re getting 8 points here with a team we really feel has a solid chance to win this game outright.  Both teams come into this game with a 20-3 record along with 10-2 marks in ACC play.  FSU has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Virginia by 5.  The Seminoles have lost just 11 games in total since the beginning of last year and 8 of those have come by 10 points or less.  They already have a road win vs a top 10 team this year beating Louisville by 13 and tonight sets up as another potential upset, if you want to call it that.  Duke is off their massive rivalry game on Saturday @ UNC.  The Devils won by 2 in OT but it was a game the NEVER LED once in regulation and trailed by 13 with 4:00 remaining.  They put all of their physical and mental energy into that comeback and OT win and now 48 hours later must face a team that is much better than UNC this season.  Meanwhile FSU, perhaps the deepest team in the country, is off an 18 point win over Miami on Saturday and they played 10 guys 10+ minutes so they should be well rested and focused on this one tonight.  The Blue Devils have been far from invincible at home this year with 2 losses already to Stephen F Austin and Louisville.  Their conference home games besides Louisville have come against BC, Wake, Miami, and Pitt so this will be just their 2nd home game vs anyone rated in the top 8 in the ACC and they lost the other one that fell into that category.  We like this match up for the FSU defense.  They are tough inside limiting ACC opponents to just 44% of their points from inside the arc (least in the league).  That plays well against a Duke team that simply doesn’t take many 3’s compared to other teams (13th in the ACC with 26% of their points from deep).  FSU also blocks more shots than any team in the ACC.  Duke could struggle offensively tonight and laying 8 points is not ideal in that spot.  This is a huge game for a rested and talented FSU team.  While it’s also a big game for Duke, we have a feeling they come in a bit flat and wear down in the 2nd half after Saturday’s huge come from behind win.  Take the points as this one goes to the wire.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UMass -1 over George Mason, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET

These two met in January and UMass blew a 9 point second half lead with George Mason coming back for the 73-63 win.  The shooting stats in that game were pretty even across the board.  The difference in the game was the FT line where UMass had 11 points and Mason had 24.  While George Mason has the better overall record with 4 more wins these two have basically the same record in A10 play (UMass 3-7 / George Mason 2-7).  The Patriots played one of the easiest non-conference schedules on the nation (337th) and racked up a few more wins early making them look like the much better team.  That is not the case.  After starting the season 11-1 vs light competition, George Mason has now lost 8 of their last 10 games and they are 1-5 SU in true road games averaging 62 PPG on just 38% from the field.  UMass is coming off back to back road losses vs two of the top teams in the A10 (Davidson & Rhode Island).  They played well in their most recent outing @ URI (10-2 and in 2nd place in the A10) giving the Rams a run for their money in the 6 point loss.  Now they are back at home where they are 3-1 in league play.  They average 78 PPG and shoot 48% at home.  They are simply happy to be playing a home game as 6 of their 10 conference games have come on the road.  UMass is 6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite and they get the win today.    

ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets  +6 over Toronto Raptors, 730PM ET

The Raptors have won 13 straight games after a big win in Indiana last night. The current streak though is a bit of fool’s gold as 9 of those thirteen wins came against losing teams with a combined record of 149-315. We were wrong to play on the Pacers last night as they just aren’t playing well but the Nets are with two straight blowout wins and W’s in 4 of their last five overall. Toronto is coming off that big win last night and even though they are 5-3 SU when playing without rest, the average margin of victory in those games is just 4.2PPG. Brooklyn is a solid 9-6 ATS when tabbed a dog in this price range this season and playing with confidence even without Kyrie Irving. It looks like Raptors Kyle Lowry may be out for this game which is an added edge for the Nets. Grab the points.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Indiana -1.5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2 PM ET

This is a huge game and nearly a must win for IU’s NCAA tourney chances.  They are coming off 3 straight losses and now sit at 15-7 overall / 5-6 in conference play.  Right now they sit on the bubble and they’ve struggled on the road so home wins are a must.  Their 3 losses entering Saturday came by 1-point at home vs Maryland (IU blew a 6 point lead in the final minute of play), along with road losses @ Penn State and @ Ohio State.  The Boilers are off an impressive 104-68 win at home over Iowa.  Purdue at home isn’t the same as Purdue on the road.  At home they’ve destroyed some very good competition including Michigan State (by 29), Iowa (by 36), Wisconsin (by 19), and Virginia (by 29).  On the road the Boilermakers are just 2-6 SU with their lone wins coming @ Ohio (10th rated team in the MAC) and @ Northwestern by 3 (one of the two worst teams in the Big 10).  They have averaged just 58 PPG on the road while making only 36% of their shots and 26% from 3.  That’s going to be a problem vs an Indiana team that is much more potent at home averaging 80 PPG on 48% shooting.  Purdue shot so far above their season averages in their win over Iowa on Wednesday (63% from the field / 56% from 3) and averaged a ridiculous 1.53 points per possession, a season high.  They come back to earth on Saturday on the road where they are a completely different team.  While PU was playing on Wednesday, Indiana has had a full week off to get ready for this rivalry game.  IU has some extra motivation as well as they’ve lost 5 straight to their in-state rival.  We fully expect Indiana to win this game.  We also love the fact that if NDSU leads late and needs to make FT’s, they rank #1 nationally hitting 82% from the line. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -5.5 over Oral Roberts, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Two teams headed in opposite directions here.  North Dakota State has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming @ South Dakota State (by 5 points) who is currently tied with this NDSU team for 1st place in the Summit.  The Bison’s offense has been rolling scoring at least 70 points in all but one conference game.  They have scored at least 1.11 points per possession in 8 of their 10 Summit League games.  They are coming off a perfect 3-0 road trip and NDSU is 5-0 SU at home in conference play winning by an average score of 79-66.  Oral Roberts, on the other hand, is on the decline.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that run coming at home vs Denver, the lowest rated team in the Summit.  Even in that game, ORU trailed Denver (5-19 overall record / 1-9 in conference) in the 2nd half in a game that was much closer than the 9 point margin.  They lost @ North Dakota on Thursday night and now 2 days later playing @ NDSU.  These two met about a month ago and Oral Roberts gave North Dakota State 79-73, one of their only two conference losses.  NDSU played that game without starter Jared Samuelson.  The Golden Eagles are just 3-10 SU on the road this year with their only wins coming vs teams currently ranked 353rd, 331st, and 276th in the Ken Pom power ratings.  ORU’s defense has been atrocious on the road allowing 76 PPG.  Overall they rank 9th in the league (last) in defensive eFG%, 2 point %, and 3 point %.  North Dakota State has a huge edge on the defensive end rank 1st in the conference in efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 2nd in 3 point % defense, and 1st in 2 point % defense.  ORU has only won once @ North Dakota State since 2006 losing 8 of the last 9.  The Bison get the win and cover at home on Saturday.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Oklahoma +3.5 over West Virginia, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Just a huge home game for OU and their NCAA tourney hopes.  They are 14-8 on the season and 4-5 in Big 12 play.  They have 8 wins over top 100 teams and this one would be their biggest of the season.  The Sooners are 9-1 at home this year with their only loss coming vs Kansas.  WVU is 18-4 on the season but all 4 of their losses have come on the road.  In Big 12 play they are 1-3 SU on the road with their only road won in conference play coming @ Oklahoma State who is 1-8 in Big 12 play.  They are just 1-3 ATS this year as a road favorite and Oklahoma matches up really well with the Mountaineers.  WVU thrives on offensive rebounding and creating turnovers.  They are not a great shooting team especially from 3 where the hit only 30% ranking 312th nationally and they make only 62% of their FT’s.  The problem for West Virginia in this game is that OU is a very good defensive rebounding team (1st in the Big 12) which will neutralize WVU’s offense rebounding strength.  The Sooners also protect the ball very well (1st in the Big 12 in offensive turnover %) which takes away WVU’s advantage creating turnovers.  Just last year OU was favored by 10.5 points vs WVU here at home (OU won by 12) and now they are getting 3 points.  Too much of an adjustment here as we like Oklahoma to win this game outright.         

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +1 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET

The Raptors have won 12 straight games and have a better record at this point than they did a year ago at this time with Kawhi on the roster. The current streak though is a bit of fool’s gold as 9 of those twelve wins came against losing teams with a combined record of 149-315. One of the Raptors wins over a team with a winning record just came the other night against this same Pacers team. Indiana shot well at 52% for the game but were outscored by 8 from the free throw line in the 1-point loss. The Pacers are still working Victor Oladipo back into the rotation and its clearly effected chemistry with their three-game losing streak, but they did play well in the loss at Toronto. The recent success of the Raptors has impacted this line in a negative way as they were just favored by -5.5-points at home and are still laying 1-point here? The Raps were also just favored by 4-points at Detroit recently who are not in the same discussion as this Pacers team. In recent home games the Pacers were favored against Miami and Philadelphia who are not much different than this Toronto team. Indiana is 18-7 SU at home this year with the 12th best average point differential at +4.4PPG. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and 9 of the last ten. Bet Indiana with revenge tonight.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois -2.5 over Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET

These two teams are tied for 1st place in the Big Ten so the winner walks away by themselves at the top of the conference.  As you’ve probably noticed, we often like to zero in on good teams playing at home off a loss.  There is much more to it than just randomly taking those teams, but it’s often a starting point.  We have that in this game as the Illini lost by 7 points at Iowa after winning 7 straight prior to that.  Their 3 losses in conference play came @ Iowa, @ Michigan State, and @ Maryland.  The previous match up between these 2 teams was an interesting one.  Illinois led on the road by 14 at half and lost 59-58.  To say the Illini led most of the game would be an understatement.  In fact, Maryland led 3-2 just over a minute into the game and after that they never led again until 59-58 with 2 seconds remaining in the game.  Quite obviously the Illini have been waiting for this rematch.  Maryland steps into this one on a 5 game winning streak.  Three of those wins came at home where they are undefeated this season.  Their two road wins during their streak were @ Northwestern (one of the two worst teams in the league) and by 1 point @ Indiana with the Hoosiers blowing a 6 point lead in the final minute of the game.  Prior to that, the Terps were 0-4 SU in true road games.  On the road this season they are averaging only 62 PPG and making just 36% of their shots.  Illinois is undefeated at home in conference play and their defense, which ranks 3rd in the Big 10 in efficiency, is allowing only 54 PPG in those 5 home conference games.  Illinois is 4-0 ATS their last 4 coming off a SU loss and we like them to win this game at home on Friday.

ASA play on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 10:30PM ET

We waited patiently to post this bet today with fear the Lakers would move Kyle Kuzma and disrupt the Lakers chemistry. They didn’t and this roster will rally tonight knowing these are the guys they move forward with. Houston was active with a trade for a wing in Robert Covington, while dealing center Capela, which means they are all-in on small ball moving forward. In our opinion, Houston’s math-metrics has failed, and this team is not capable of coming out of the West. These same two teams squared off in Houston less than a month ago with the 3-point underdog Lakers winning by 9-points. L.A. shot 48% compared to Houston’s 44% and outrebound the Rockets by 4. The edge on the glass tonight will be magnified for the Lakers now that Capela is gone so who on the Rockets roster can match up with Anthony Davis? In the last meeting Capela grabbed 12 rebounds for Houston which will be sorely missed. Speaking of AD, he didn’t play in the first meeting against the Rockets and the Lakers still won by 9 on the road. Houston has a road differential of +0.6PPG which is 10th in the NBA but Los Angeles is 17-6 SU at home with an average MOV of 10PPG. These two Western Conference rivals are very similar when it comes to offensive efficiency ratings, but the Lakers hold a decisive advantage with the 4th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Houston’s 15th. This is one of those games the Lakers will be focused and play at a very high level. Lay the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Appalachian State pick-em over UT Arlington, Thurs at 7 PM ET

App State’s current 6-6 record in Sun Belt play is a bit misleading.  They played 3 of those games (25%) without 2 of their top players.  6’9 forward Isaac Johnson (11 PPG and 7 RPG) missed games on January 2nd, 9th, and 11th (all losses).  Also starting PG O’Showen Williams (11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 2 APG) missed games on January 9th and 11th (both losses as we mentioned).  One of the games where both missed was their first meeting vs this UT Arlington team.   UTA (-5.5) won that game by 10 points but it was closer than that most of the way with Appalachian State down by 3 with just a few minutes remaining.  That was despite 2 of their top players missing the game as we mentioned.  Now they are back and the Mountaineers are playing very well.  They have won 3 of their last 5 games and their only 2 losses during that stretch were both vs Little Rock who is in 1st place at 11-2 a full 2 games ahead of the field.  UTA has won 4 of their last 5 however they’ve played an extremely easy schedule over the last few weeks.  Four of their last five games have come against UL Monroe (twice) and UL Lafayette (twice), 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Sun Belt.  Those 2 teams have combined for just a 6-18 conference record and UTA lost at home to one of them (UL Lafayette) one week ago.   Half of their conference wins have come against teams that are currently in 9th and 10th place in the league and another vs this App State team that wasn’t close to full strength as we mentioned.  We love the way the Mountaineer offense is playing right now as they’ve tallied 1.34, 1.15, 1.13, and 1.14 points per possession in 4 of their last 5 games.  Over those 5 games they are hitting 47% of their shots overall and 40% of their 3 pointers.  Based on the pointspread when they played @ UTA (App State was +5.5) this line should be at least -2 to -2.5 in favor of the Mountaineers.  Actually with their full line up back in place, it should adjust higher than that but with Arlington’s current run (vs poor teams for the most part) this sits around a pick-em.  We’ll take App State to win this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -3 over Wisconsin, Wed at 9 PM ET

We like the way this home game sets up for Minnesota.  The Gophs are off back to back losses vs Michigan State & Illinois and now with an 11-10 overall record (5-6 in the Big 10) they are in must win mode, especially at home, down the stretch.  They have won all but one of their Big 10 home games (lost vs MSU) and they catch Wisconsin in a tough spot.  The Badgers played a huge home game over the weekend vs Michigan State and they had a tough week leading into that game with starter Kobe King transferring and starter Brad Davison missing the game due to a suspension.  Wisconsin rallied in the midst of the controversies surrounding the team and picked up a 64-63 home win.  Now coming down off that emotional spot and going on the road will be tough.  They are just 2-4 on the road in conference play and come into this one having last 3 straight road games.  They are averaging just 58 PPG on the road in Big 10 play and they rely very heavily on the 3-point shot yet only make 29% of their attempts from beyond the arc on the road.  Minnesota has averaged 76 PPG at home this year and they’ve topped 70 points in all but 2 of their 11 home games.  While the Badgers were battling MSU in their must win home game on Sunday, the Gophers have had a full 7 days off to get ready for this big game.  We like Minnesota to win and cover this game at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Penn State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

MSU is coming off a loss vs an emotional Wisconsin team on Saturday and they’ve bounced back after setbacks as well as anyone.  After each of their first 5 losses they’ve responded with a win the following game by margins of 53, 18, 12, 12, and 8 points.  After Saturday’s loss @ Wisconsin they sit at 8-3 in the Big 10 tied for first place with Illinois and just a half game ahead of Maryland.  All 3 of Sparty’s conference losses have come on the road.  At home they have a perfect 6-0 mark in league play winning by an average margin of 18 points with all 6 wins coming by at least 12 points.  MSU played a terrible first half in Madison on Saturday and head coach Tom Izzo let them have it at halftime.  They responded by outscoring the Badgers by 15 in the 2nd half but still a 1-point loss.  We expect that momentum to continue at home tonight where they take on a PSU team that we feel might a bit overvalued right now coming in off 4 straight wins.  It will be the Nittany Lions 2nd straight road game after they topped the worst team in the Big 10, Nebraska on the road on Saturday.  PSU is 16-5 on the season but just 2-3 on the road with losses coming @ Ohio State by 32, @ Rutgers by 11, and @ Minnesota by 7.  Penn State likes to play fast which plays right into the hands for MSU’s strength and that is their transition game.  The conference teams that have topped Michigan State this year (Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana) have been able to slow them down into a grinder type game.  That doesn’t look like it will happen here as the pace should be fast for an MSU team that already averages 85 PPG at home.  Sparty is already 9-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and off their loss we expect them to blast PSU.  The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 meetings and they were favored by very close to this number (-7) @ Penn State last year.  The last 3 times they’ve played host to the Nits they were favored by 17.5, 14, and 13.5 points.  This is a small number to lay in this situation.  MSU by double digits.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Dallas Mavericks,  7PM ET

This is a great spot for a bet on the Pacers who are off a home loss and face the Mavs off a blowout home win. Indiana suffered a setback against the Knicks their last time out as they adjust with the return of former All-Star Victor Oladipo back into the rotation. Oladipo was just 2 of 14 from the field and struggled in 22 minutes of play. The Pacers as a whole shot just 42% against the Knicks which was uncharacteristic of them as they are the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 47.6%. The Mavs come into this contest off a 23-point win over the lowly Hawks and will now be playing their 3rd game without All-Star Luka Doncic. Dallas has the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA but that’s with Doncic in the lineup who averages a hair under 29PPG. The Mavs will have a much tougher time scoring here against a Pacers defense that is 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.080 points per possession. The Pacers have an average margin of victory at home this season at +5PPG, are 12-6 SU when coming off a loss and have not lost back to back games at home this year. The home teams has covered 7 of the last nine in this series and that trend continues in this one. We are betting Indiana minus the points at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON San Francisco +1.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET

We had this game power rated at dead even on a neutral field so we’re getting some line value with San Fran in our opinion.  The Niners finished with the better record (15-3 while KC was 14-4) despite facing the tougher schedule.  The NFC West with the Rams & Seahawks (playoff team and playoff caliber team) was much tougher than the AFC West who had every team finish under .500 except the Chiefs.  Down the stretch the 49ers faced a brutal schedule which included Green Bay (twice), LA Rams, Baltimore, New Orleans, Seattle (twice), and Minnesota all in their last 10 games (including playoffs).  The only 2 non playoff caliber teams they played over their last 10 games were Arizona and Atlanta (who was actually playing very well at the end of the season).  KC, on the other hand, faced off against the Chargers (twice), Denver, Oakland, Chicago, and New England over their final 6 regular season games – only one playoff caliber team.  Despite the tougher schedule San Francisco had the better stats - +11 ppg, +96 ypg and +1.3 ypp this season while the Chiefs were +10 ppg, +32 ypg and +0.9 ypp.  San Francisco had a point differential of +169 while KC was +143.  Kansas City took on 8 playoff teams this year going 5-3 SU & ATS and outgaining those playoff opponents by an average of 31.0 yards per game.  San Francisco went 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS against their playoff opponents outgaining those teams by an average of 37.4 yards per game.  Slight edge to Frisco.  We think SF has an edge at many of the positions with QB being one of the few exceptions.  Although it’s not as big of a gap there as some may expect.  Let’s not forget that Niner QB Garoppolo is an amazing 23-5 SU as an NFL starter!  The experts at Pro Football Focus recently ranked the players in the Super Bowl and 18 of the top 26 were 49ers.  We agree with that.  They have a huge edge defensively (2nd in total defense compared to 17th for Chiefs) which has been a successful formula in the past with 44 of the 53 Super Bowl winners entered the game with the higher ranked defense.  They also have a much better ground game (2nd rated compared to 22nd for KC) so we will say with solid confidence that SF will outrush KC here facing a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th allowing 124 YPG on the ground.  If that’s the case, teams that have the higher rushing total in the Super Bowl are 40-12 SU in the Super Bowl.  We think SF will control the ground game, eating clock and keeping KC’s dangerous offense on the sidelines.  We like the better defense and better running game getting points on Sunday.  Take San Francisco.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 2PM ET

We like the movement and public backing of the Pelicans here with Zion Williamson and will bet opposite with Houston. The value in the number is evident when you compare today’s number with recent Rocket home games. At home Houston was favored by 8 over Dallas, -10.5 versus Denver, -7.5 against Oklahoma City and minus -3.5-points against the Lakers. You can see for yourself the value in today’s line. Has the Pelicans played well of late with the addition of Zion? Yes, of course but this is a very manageable number for the home team Rockets to get. Houston wins at home this season by an average of +7.6PPG, have the 7th best offensive efficiency numbers at home and the 13th best DEFF. New Orleans has the 24th worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -5PPG and the 20th worst DEFF when playing away from home. The Pels have two straight road wins but they came against the Cavs, improving Grizzlies and Pistons but their most recent road game against a quality team like Houston was a blowout loss to the Celtics. Houston should play with a little more energy today considering the Pelicans beat them by 15 just a month ago. Lay the points with the Rockets in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON BYU -6 over St Marys, Saturday at 10 PM ET

This is a rematch from a few weeks ago when BYU traveled to St Marys and lost 87-84 in OT as a +5.5 point underdog.  The stats in that game were almost dead even across the board with St Marys having a slight edge from 3 point land (made 9 to BYU’s 6) and from the FT line (made 20 to BYU’s 14).  BYU played them toe to toe on their home court and did so without their best player and leading scorer Yoeli Childs who averages 21 PPG and 10 RPG. Childs has since returned and this will be his 4th game back after missing 4 games from Jan 9th thru Jan 18th.  The Cougars now get a chance at redemption at home where they are nearly unbeatable.  This year they are 10-1 here at the Marriott Center with their only loss coming by 5 points to San Diego State who is currently the only remaining unbeaten team in the nation at 22-0 and they played that game without Childs as well.  The Cougs led that game by 9 in the 2nd half and still led by 4 with 2:00 minutes remaining.  On top of that, St Mary’s starting guard Tanner Krebs, who had 10 points and 8 rebounds vs BYU, might not be available here after injuring his ankle in a win over Portland on Thursday night.  BYU is better than their 16-7 record, first of all because they played a very tough non-conference schedule (rated 21st toughest non-conference slate that included 7 top 100 teams) and they have played 13 games without Childs (he was suspended for the first 9).  With him in the line up they are 8-2 with an OT loss @ Utah and a 1-point loss @ San Francisco.  We mentioned their record at home this year but this has always been one of the toughest places to play in the nation with BYU sporting a 68-12 SU record their last 80 at home.  St Marys has played 5 true road games this year and while they’ve won 4 of those, BYU will be by far their highest rated opponent on the road thus far.  In fact, 4 of their 5 road opponents are currently ranked outside the top 100 (BYU ranked 18th at this time).  BYU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 2nd in eFG% and 1st nationally in 3-point %.  Those fantastic numbers only improve when they are at home where they average 84 PPG on 51% shooting and 43% from deep.  They have a tendency to blast teams at home with 11 of their last 13 wins here coming by double digits.  St Marys is a solid team but they are in the wrong spot at the wrong time with BYU looking for revenge.  Cougars cover easily here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Detroit -2 over Oakland, Friday at 7 PM ET

We really like the way this Detroit team is playing right now as they are gelling under head coach Mike Davis (former Indiana head coach).  They are just 6-16 on the season but they have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming @ UWGB in overtime.  Actually they’ve been playing well going back to the beginning of January (4-4 record this month) including a home win over Northern Kentucky, the 2nd best team in the Horizon, and a 1 point loss vs Wright State, the best team in the Horizon.  This Oakland team is headed in the opposite direction.  They are 7-15 on the season but since the turn of the new year they are 1-7 with their only win coming vs Cleveland State who ranks 308th nationally and 2nd to last in the Horizon.  They just lost at home last weekend to IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon.  Detroit has played the toughest conference schedule to date and they still have a decent 4-5 record in league play.  Oakland has played the 6th toughest schedule and they are 2-7 in the conference.  Detroit has a significant edge in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play despite playing the tougher slate.  These two met back in December when Detroit was still finding their way and Oakland took home a 78-69 win.  The Titans outrebounded Oakland, one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, by 10 that day but simply couldn’t hit shots making only 27% of their 66 attempts while Oakland hit 57%.  Detroit has lost 5 straight vs Oakland including a down to the wire game here last season.  With this line sitting at just -2, all we need is for Detroit to win this game and home and we really like them to do just that. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5.5 over Iowa, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET

Both of these teams are 6-3 in the Big 10 but all records are not created equal.  Iowa has played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are currently on a 5 game winning streak.  Four of those five games have come at home and their lone road game during that stretch was @ Northwestern.  They just faced rival Wisconsin at home on Monday so this is a fairly quick turnaround for them playing on the road tonight.  The Hawkeyes trailed by 12 with just 7:00 minutes remaining in that home game on Monday and rallied for a 6 point win over the short-handed Badgers.  The Hawkeyes have played only 1 tough road game in conference play and that was back in early December @ Michigan which turned into a 12 point loss.  Their other true road games came @ Nebraska (a loss to the worst team in the conference) and @ Northwestern as we mentioned.  They did play Penn State (Iowa lost) in Philadelphia which while closer to PSU was not a true home game for the Nittany Lions.  Now they face a Maryland team that is angry and peaking.  The Terps have won 5 of their last 7 and 3 straight including a win @ Indiana over the weekend.  Their losses during that stretch included a 1-point loss @ Wisconsin in a game they led by 1 and had the ball with 12 seconds remaining, and a blowout loss @ Iowa.  Their game in Iowa city was by far their worst performance of the season.  The Terps lost that game 67-49 and shot only 33% from the field, 18% from 3 point land, and made only 11 of their 20 FT attempts.  And that was against an Iowa defense that ranks 78th nationally in defensive efficiency (11th in the Big 10) so just a poor offensive showing for the Terrapins.  Maryalnd was actually favored by 1.5 points in that game and now only laying 5.5 at home just a few weeks later.  Maryland’s other 3 losses this season (@ PSU, @ Wisc, and @Seton Hall) were all down to the wire contests.  They’ve been waiting for this rematch with Iowa and we expect them to play very well tonight.  They are a perfect 11-0 at home winning all but one of those games by at least 7 points.  Nine of those eleven home wins have come by double digits and their average home winning margin this year is 17 points.  Maryland beat Iowa here 91-73 last year and we see a potential similar outcome tonight.  Iowa is ripe for a beatdown and we think it comes tonight.  Lay it with Maryland.  

ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks +7 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30PM ET

Plug your nose with this bet but it’s the logical play to make given the circumstances. Philly is in a scheduling nightmare as they recently played two big games against the Raptors and Lakers prior to beating the Warriors at home. On the horizon for the Sixers are THREE HUGE road contests at Boston, Miami and Milwaukee so looking past the Hawks is to be expected here. The Hawks have recently been blown out on the road in Toronto and Oklahoma City but were competitive in a home loss to the Raptors by 5 and beat the Clippers and Wizards. Atlanta has a losing home record of 7-16 but their average loss margin is -4.1PPG which clearly gets the cover here. Philadelphia has not been good on the road this season with a 9-15 SU mark and a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Earlier this season the Hawks lost by just 2-points at home to the 76ers who have just one spread win their last 9 road contests. Atlanta is shooting over 46% their last five games and they’ll make enough tonight at home to get the money in this one.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Los Angeles Kings, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET

Teams that have played a game after the All Star break have a big edge over teams that haven't played.  We saw that last night with St Louis off a loss in their first game back and then winning at Calgary (a team that hadn't played).  Also Ottawa upset the Sabres last night and the fact that Buffalo hadn't played and was rusty was a big factor as the Senators had played the night before and it showed.  That makes this situation a particularly strong one because one of the best teams in the league (Tampa Bay) is taking on one of the worst teams in the league (Los Angeles).  The Kings have not played since Saturday the 18th so this is a span of more than a week and a half off!  As for the Lightning, they played Monday at Dallas and suffered an overtime loss against the Stars.  As their coach noted, Tampa Bay was sloppy in their first game back and made mistakes.  This has been a key theme for all the teams coming back from extended time off.  We expect it to be no different for the Kings tonight and Tampa Bay, already having a game under their belts, will take full advantage.  Los Angeles has lost 11 of its past 14 games!  The Kings scored an average of only 1.6 goals per game in those 11 defeats.  Now the rusty Kings will be tasked with trying to stop an angry Tampa Bay team that had won 12 of 14 games prior to the loss to the Stars.  The Lightning have scored an average of 4.5 goals per game in those 12 victories!  You can see this is a mismatch and, of course, that is why Tampa Bay is a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line.  Where we get the value is by playing the Lightning on the puck line and laying the 1.5 goals for a plus money price in return!  4 of Tampa's last 6 road wins have come by a margin of 2 or more goals.  4 of the Kings last 5 home losses have come by a multiple-goal margin.  Also, Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had won 10 straight starts prior to the OT loss at Dallas.  The Lightning have been getting fantastic goal-tending.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a comeback price, currently in +120 range) with Tampa Bay is the value play here.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Penn State -5.5 over Indiana, Wed at 8 PM ET

This is a really tough spot for IU coming off a 1-point home loss vs Maryland on Sunday.  The Hoosiers led that game by 7 with 2:30 remaining and still held a 6 point lead with just over 1:00 left.  Maryland scored the final 7 points of the game to pull out a 77-76 that was marred by a near brawl after the game ended.  IU shot 52% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc and STILL lost the game at home.  Now just a few days later they have to go on the road and face a team that is playing at a high level right now and PSU has had a full week off leading into this game.  Penn State won @ Michigan by 9 last Wednesday and that was after beating Ohio State by 14 the previous weekend.  IU has had some solid performances at home, however on the road they’ve won a grand total of 1 game this year and that was @ Nebraska who is the lowest rated team in the Big 10.  Their 3 true road losses have come by margins of 20 (@ Wisconsin), 16 (@ Maryland), and 9 (@ Rutgers).  Penn State is 4-4 in league play and they have played the toughest schedule so far in the conference already having faced Michigan, Ohio State (twice), Iowa, Maryland, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Minnesota.  The Hoosiers, on the other hand, are 5-4 but have played one of the easiest schedules in the Big 10 having already faced both Nebraska & Northwestern, by far the two worst teams in the conference.  As we said the Nittany Lions are rested (week off) and they know this is a huge home game for them with 3 of their next 4 on the road.  They are 10-1 at home this season averaging 80 PPG while IU puts up just 63 PPG on the road.  Penn State also comes in with a little extra motivation after losing by 2 here vs Indiana last year.  PSU shot just 37% for the game, 24% from 3, and made only 11 of their 26 FT’s and still had an opportunity to win that game.  Bad spot for Indiana here and we like Penn State to win and cover this one.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON South Carolina +7 over Arkansas, Wed at 8:30 PM ET

South Carolina has been very successful on the road this year with a 4-2 SU mark including wins @ Virginia, @ Clemson, and @ Texas A&M.  Their two losses on the road came @ Tennessee by 1 point and @ Auburn by 13 last Wednesday.  That game had the Gamecocks walking into a hornet’s next as Auburn, who started the season 15-0, coming in off back to back embarrassing road efforts losing by double digits at Alabama and at Florida.  It was a tough spot for South Carolina to be stepping into and Auburn played great off those 2 losses.  Both these teams are 3-3 in the SEC, however Arkansas has played the easier slate already facing Vandy, Ole Miss, and A&M the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference.  The Razors may also be without the SEC’s 6th leading scorer tonight as Isaiah Joe (17 PPG) deals with a knee injury.  The thing with South Carolina is we’re getting value because they play just as well on the road as they do at home yet the number needs to be set with home court advantage or road court disadvantage in mind.  There isn’t any.  The Gamecocks average and allow the same PPG both at home and on the road.  They actually shoot better on the road hitting 47% from the field and 36% from deep.  They should dominate the boards here as well as they are one of the better rebounding teams in the SEC while Arkansas is one of the worst.  We give South Carolina a solid shot to win this game and even if they lose, we have a nice cushion and expect a close one.  Take the points.      

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oral Roberts -4 over South Dakota State, Wed at 8 PM ET

Despite their 4-3 Summit League record, we have Oral Roberts power rated as the best team in the league.  Other are in agreement including Ken Pom who also has them #1 in the conference.  They’re 11-9 overall record is misleading because they played a brutal non-conference schedule ranked as one of the 15 toughest in the nation.  Some of their non-conference opponents included Iowa, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Creighton, and BYU all on the road!  Despite losing those games, they were competitive in all of them and covered 4 of those 5.  On top of that, they’ve played the toughest Summit League schedule to date as well with 5 of their first 7 conference games coming on the road.  At home they’ve been great with an 8-0 SU record but they haven’t played a home game since January 11th, a 15-point win over North Dakota.  Dating back to last season, ORU has covered 11 of their last 12 home games.  This year they are averaging 85 PPG while allowing only 64 PPG.  We also like the fact they are coming off a road loss @ red hot South Dakota over the weekend.  South Dakota State currently sits in 1st place in the Summit with a 6-2 record making this pretty much a must win for ORU if they want to keep pace with the Jackrabbits.  SDSU is also off a huge home game vs North Dakota State which was a battle for 1st place and the Jackrabbits win the game by 5 points.  On the road they haven’t been good with a 3-8 SU record.  Their 2 road wins in conference play came @ Denver and @ IPFW, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the league.  Their other 2 Summit road games were losses @ South Dakota (by 15) and @ Omaha (by 3) two teams rated well below this Oral Roberts team.  ORU has lost 6 in a row to SDSU to they while they don’t really need any extra motivation, they do have some tonight.  So far this season, the Summit ranks as the toughest league to get a road win in conference play with only 23% of the visiting teams winning games (lowest rate in the NCAA).  Now we get a very good team, at home in a must win spot, off a loss, vs a team that sits ahead of them in the standings but has been poor on the road.  This is a great spot for Oral Roberts and we’ll jump on it.

ASA play on: Phoenix Suns +6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

This situation is ideal for a wager on the Suns who are off a loss and catch the Mavs off a win last night. So not only are the Mavericks playing the second night of a back to back, but they are also off a big win against OKC and they have a bigger game on deck against instate rival Houston. Phoenix is off a close road loss in Memphis but had won three straight road games prior to that against the Spurs, Celtics and Knicks. Dallas is just 6-7 ATS when laying 7 or more points at home this season so it’s not like they are a great heavy home favorite. Phoenix on the other hand has been a great underdog this year with a 7-2 spread record when catching 5 plus points. Dallas is 13-11 SU at home this season with an average differential of +6PPG (10th in the NBA). Phoenix is 10-11 SU away from home with the 12th best overall road differential of minus just 1.9PPG. The Mavs are 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS when playing without rest but the average margin of victory is less than 5PPG. Phoenix has covered 8 of the last ten in this series and 5 of six on this court. Phoenix hangs around the entire game and will have a chance to steal a win late. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

The home/road dichotomy of these two teams is quite dramatic.  Rutgers is a perfect 14-0 at home this year winning by an average score of 73-56.  The Knights hit over 47% of their shots at the RAC while allowing opponents to make only 35%.  Purdue is 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Ohio, the 9th rated team in the 12 team MAC.  The Boilers are 0-4 on the road in Big 10 play and in those conference road games they have scored 37, 50, 56, and 62 (in regulation) points.  They are shooting only 35% away from home and making less than 24% of their 3-pointers.  Don’t expect Purdue to do much offensively tonight vs a Rutgers defense that ranks 4th nationally in defensive FG%, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 9th in defensive efficiency.  They have allowed less than 60 points in 10 of their 14 home games.  Facing a Purdue offense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency AND eFG% (conference games only) plays perfectly into what Rutgers does best.  We are also getting Rutgers off a sub par performance here over the weekend as they barely clipped Nebraska by 3 points.  They led by 14 in the 2nd half of that game and nearly blew it.  They should be focused here.  Purdue is off a huge, must win home game beating Wisconsin 70-51 in a game where the Badgers looked flat and the Boilers outrebounded them 42 to 16.  That won’t happen here as Rutgers is one of the top rebounding teams in the Big 10.  The Knights also have some extra motivation here as they’ve NEVER beaten Purdue since joining the league back in 2015.  They are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 home games and Purdue is just 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 as an underdog.  Rutgers is the better team this year and they get the home win and cover tonight.

ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET

We have not supported the Heat many times this season but will here. Miami has been nearly unbeatable at home this season with a 20-2 SU record and one of those losses came in their last home game. We love to back good teams off a loss and this situation couldn’t be any better than it is, especially with the Magic off a game yesterday. Both Miami and Orlando were just beaten by the Clippers, but the Heat are rested while the Magic played yesterday. Orlando is also playing their 3rd game in four days so fatigue will be a factor. Miami has the 5th best average margin of victory at home in the NBA at +10PPG, are the 3rd most efficient offense at home and 7th in defensive efficiency. Orlando is 8-15 SU away from home with a negative differential of -3.1PPG. The Magic have the 25th worst offensive efficiency numbers on the road but rank 7th in DEFF. In their last five games overall, the Heat are shooting over 47% from the field while the Magic are allowing foes to hit nearly that same percentage in their last five contests. Miami has taken care of the lesser teams at home this year with a 11-3 ATS record against sub .500 teams on their home floor. Miami will bounce back here with a double-digit home win.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Siena -4 over Quinnipiac, Sunday at 2 PM ET

Quinnipiac comes in with a 5-2 record in the MAAC however they’ve also played the easiest schedule in conference play to date.  They are 10-7 overall and their total strength of schedule ranks 350th nationally out of 353 teams.  In conference play they’ve had 5 home games and just 2 road games and their road games were vs the worst team in the MAAC Marist (Quinnipiac won by 3) and at Manhattan the 7th rated team in the league (Quinnipiac lost by 12).  Siena is 4-4 in league play however they have played half their games on the road.  At home Siena is a perfect 8-0 SU on the season averaging 76 PPG.  Quinnipiac averages just 66 PPG on the road and barely shoots 40%.  Siena tweaked their starting line up on Friday at home in order to get their best offensive players all on the floor at the same time.  The Saints picked up a 13 point win and have some positive momentum heading into today’s match up.  Siena faces Saint Peter’s here a few weeks ago and they were laying 6.5 in that game and we have Quinnipiac rated dead even with Saint Peter’s.  Plus Siena played that game without one of their top players Elijah Burns (Notre Dame transfer) who has scored in double digits 12 times this year and the still beat Saint Peters.  Line value is with Siena here.  Finally they have some extra motivation heading into this game as they lost as a favorite here to Quinnipiac last year in triple OT.  Lay this small number with Siena on Sunday.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON UConn -5 over Tulsa, Sunday at 12 PM ET

UConn steps into this game with a 1-4 record in AAC play while Tulsa is 5-1 yet the Huskies are favored.  Despite winning just 1 of their last 6 games, the Huskies are actually playing quite well.  Over their last 4 games UConn has beaten Tulane, lost in OT to Wichita State (2nd rated team in the AAC), lost by 6 @ Villanova (one of the top teams in the Big East) and lost by 4 @ Houston (top rated team in the AAC).  They have been right there with a chance to win facing some of the top teams in the country.  UConn has played the toughest conference schedule thus far having already faced the top 3 teams in the AAC in their 5 conference games thus far.  Tulsa only has one AAC loss (by 31 points @ Cincinnati) but they’ve played a very easy conference slate.  They have 2 conference road wins however those were against the two lowest rated teams in the league.  Prior to that the Golden Hurricanes were just 1-4 on the road this season.  Tulsa has won 4 in a row and they are coming off a monumental home win vs Memphis winning 80-40!  Back to reality here in a huge letdown spot as they head on the road to UConn where they are 1-3 SU lifetime with their only win coming by 2 points in a game the Huskies led by 9 at half and missed a layup as time expired that would have sent the game to OT.  This is a much bigger game for UConn and we really like they way they are playing now despite their record.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern -2 over Georgia State, Saturday at 5 PM ET

We faded this Georgia Southern team last Saturday @ South Alabama and picked up a 6 point win with the Jaguars.  We felt that was a perfect spot to do so as GSU was off a road win @ Troy a few nights earlier and South Alabama was coming off a home loss to Georgia State.  Now off a loss and back at home we really like Georgia Southern on Saturday.  These two rivals are tied for 2nd place in the Sun Belt with 6-3 records 2 games behind Little Rock who is 8-2.  Georgia State has overachieved this year in our opinion as they lost 5 of their top 7 players from last year.  They’ve been really solid at home but on the road in conference play they have a record of just 2-3 including losses @ Troy and @ Arkansas State, the 10th and 9th rated teams in the league.  Today they are facing a Georgia Southern team that is a perfect 8-0 at home this year and 27-6 their last 33 home games.  One of those 6 losses was here last year vs Georgia State (who won the conference and went to the NCAA tourney) and that was on Senior Night and GSU’s home finale so the Eagles have been patiently waiting for this rematch.  Unlike State who as we mentioned had a large turnover from last year, Georgia Southern brings back 6 players who played key roles in last year’s home loss so they will be ready here.  Southern was favored by 5 in that home game last year vs a better Georgia State team.  Prior to GSU’s home loss last year, the host had won 16 straight in this rivalry.  The Eagles should have a solid home court edge here as a sellout is expected today.  Eeverything we like points to a Georgia Southern home win and cover.          

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois State -1.5 over Southern Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET

Southern Illinois is a young team with 4 freshmen in their top 7 and those type of teams normally struggle on the road.  That would be an understatement for the Salukis as they are now 0-7 SU on the road this season.  Their 3 Missouri Valley road losses have all come by at least 12 points.  We’re also catching this inexperienced team in a great spot to fade them coming off 2 straight home wins including their biggest win of the year on Wednesday night beating Northern Iowa by 2 points.  It was a tough spot for the Panthers, the highest rated team in the MVC, as they were off a big road win @ Bradley with a 1st place face off vs Loyola on deck.  UNI was homered a bit by the officials in that road game going to the line just 4 times compared to 23 for Southern Illinois yet the Panthers still had a shot missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer for the win.  It’s going to be tough for this SIU team to turn around just a few days after that emotional win and play well on the road where they’ve struggled all year.  ISU opened the MVC slate with a win over Northern Iowa and have since lost 6 straight.  Four of those six games were on the road and they were underdogs in 5 of those games so not a big surprise they are in a losing streak.  ISU is hungry for a win and they are finally favored in a game they can absolutely win.  They’ve won 12 in a row vs Southern Illinois at home with the Salukis last win in Bloomington coming in 2006.  There is a reason the team that is 1-6 in league play is favored.  Take Illinois State.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Providence +2.5 over Villanova, Saturday at 1PM ET

We went against this Nova team a few nights ago when they played host to Butler and we lost.  However, leading into that game, we faded the Cats twice and won each time.  We think this is a great spot to jump on Providence at home.  The Friars had won 5 of 6 heading into last Saturday including wins @ Marquette and @ DePaul along with a 16 point home win vs Georgetown.  That run ended as they played 2 very tough road games @ Creighton and @ Seton Hall losing both by 4 and 9 points respectively. In their most recent loss @ Seton Hall, the top team in the Big East, Providence shot just 36% while the Hall lit the nets at 58% but it was still just a 5 point game with under 2:00 minutes remaining. This becomes a huge home game for the NCAA hopes with 3 of their next 4 games on the road.  Villanova is on an impressive 5 game winning streak but keep in mind their last 4 games have all been at home.  In fact, the Wildcats have played a grand total of 18 games this year and only 4 have been true road games and one of those was @ St Joes which is only a few miles from the Nova campus.  They are 2-2 on the road with wins @ St Joes (ranked 244th nationally) and a come from behind tight win @ Creighton in a game they never led until 3:30 remaining.  Their other 2 road games were double digit losses @ Ohio State and @ Marquette.  As a road favorite they’ve been terrible going 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 in that role.  We think this young Villanova team (5 underclassmen in top 7) will struggle on the road at times this year and this is one spot that fits the bill.  Providence is backed into a corner so to speak and the Wildcats haven’t been on the road since early January.  Nova is ranked 9th in the nation (overrated in our opinion) and yet they are laying only 2 points here.  With that being said, most are predictably jumping on the Wildcats with 78% of the tickets, however the line opened -2 and hasn’t budged. We smell an upset here.

ASA play on: Orlando Magic -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET

The Celtics have some key injuries heading into this contest but that’s not the main reason for this selection. Orlando has made solid stride this season and are looking like a quality playoff contender in the East. The Magic do it with a defense that allows the least points per game at 104.3 and has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.062 points per possession. Orlando is 13-9 SU on their home floor with the 14th best home differential of +2.6PPG. The Magic have faced one of the toughest schedules in the NBA when at home this season with 12 games against current playoff teams. We like the situation with the Magic off home loss which came after a brutal 6-game West Coast road trip. We predict Boston will let down here following a pair of big home wins, especially with the light roster. The Celtics are 11-9 SU on the road this season but they have lost their last three away from home. Orlando has beaten the Celtics in three straight meetings and 4 of the last five. This is a great spot to fade Boston and back Orlando. Magic by 10.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -7 over IPFW, Thursday at 8 PM ET

We were on South Dakota on Sunday vs a South Dakota State team that was sitting in 1st place in the Summit at the time.  South Dakota rolled them by a final score of 99-84.  As we mentioned on Sunday, we feel the Coyotes are much better than their 12-8 record (3-3 in conference play) because their leader and starting PG Triston Simpson missed 7 games between November 30th and December 22nd and his loss was a big one.  During that stretch South Dakota had a 3-4 record and now that he is back to full strength they are playing their best basketball of the year.  They have won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss was by 2 points @ North Dakota State (currently in 1st place in the Summit).  We picked this veteran Coyotes (4 senior starters & 1 junior starter) to win the Summit prior to the season and they are now playing up to those standards.  Their opponent tonight, IPFW, is one of the worst teams in the league.   They have lost 6 of their last 9 games with all 6 of those losses coming by at least 9 points.  They rank dead last in the conference (league games) in offensive efficiency and eFG%.  On top of that they are a poor defensive team ranking 322nd nationally in eFG% defense and 314th in 3-point FG% defense.  That will be a huge problem tonight as they face a South Dakota offense that is among the best in the country.  The Coyotes are shooting over 48% on the season (13th nationally) and over 41% from beyond the arc (1st nationally).  They are very tough to guard with all 5 starters averaging at least 10 PPG, shooting at least 45% from the field, and 3 of the 5 starters hitting 43% or better from behind the arc.  The Coyotes also will have some extra motivation (x2) for this game as these two met a few weeks ago @ IPFW and the Mastodons pulled off the upset.  The normally very good shooting South Dakota team made only 36% of their shots in that game and the previously mentioned Triston Simpson had just returned from his injury and was 0 for 6 from the field and committed 5 turnovers.  He has since gotten back into a groove with 41 points, 10 assists, and just 2 turnovers in his last 3 games combined.  On top of that, this South Dakota team lost to IPFW in last year’s Summit League tourney ending the Coyotes season.  IPFW is just 2-8 SU on the road this year and they will struggle keeping up offensively vs South Dakota who just put up 99 points here at home vs one of the top teams in the Summit.  We’ll lay this number and expect a double digit win for South Dakota.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Phoenix Suns 9PM ET

We certainly like the situation with a good team like Indiana off a horrible showing and loss in their previous game. We successfully played against the Pacers in their previous game as they were in a bad scheduling situation coming off a win in Denver the night before and facing a red hot Jazz team in Utah. Now Indiana has a day of rest and step down in talent to face the Suns. The Pacers had won 5 straight games leading into the Jazz loss and had won four straight road games against quality foes. Indiana has been very good when coming off a loss with a 5-1 spread run. Phoenix is average (15th) in the NBA when it comes to a point differential of +0.8PPG but have a losing record of 9-15 SU. Of the Suns 9-home wins only 3 have come against teams with winning records. The Suns rank in the bottom third of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings while Indiana is 11th in both when playing of the road. Phoenix is on an 0-5 ATS spread run at home and Indiana will make it six in a row.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -5 over Penn State, Wed at 7 PM ET

This has become a must win early season situation for Michigan who has lost 3 of their last 4 games to drop to 2-4 in the Big 10.  The Wolverines have played one of the toughest schedules on the nation (4th SOS) and all 6 of their losses on the season have come to teams ranked in our top 35 power rankings.  Five of those six losses have come on the road with their only home loss coming by 1-point in OT vs Oregon in a game the Ducks shot the lights out hitting over 50% from the field and from behind the arc.  The Wolverines are home off 2 straight road losses @ Minnesota by 8 and @ Iowa by 7.  The actually led the Gophers with only 3:00 minutes remaining and also led Iowa with 5:00 minutes remaining so they were very close to a couple of big road wins.  They catch Penn State off a huge home win over Ohio State on Saturday.  Now the Nittany Lions head on the road where they are 0-3 SU in Big 10 play with losses @ Ohio St, @ Rutgers, and @ Minnesota.  The Wolverines are one of the best shooting teams in the nation and at home they are even better hitting 51% of his shots and averaging 83 PPG.  This is a very tough spot for a PSU team that has simply not historically been good on the road in conference play.  As we mentioned they have yet to win a Big 10 road game this year and they have won just 8 of their last 32 conference road games.  They are 0-9 their last 9 trips to Ann Arbor losing by an average of 12 PPG.  Going back further PSU is just 1-16 SU their last 17 games here.  Big 10 home teams continue to roll in the money with a 31-19 ATS record in conference play.  Here we have a good Big 10 team at home in a spot they need to win with a more than manageable line.  Take Michigan. 

ASA play on: LA Clippers +1.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

You know you’ve made it in the NBA when you are referred to by just one name and Luka Doncic has joined that elite status in the Association. With that success and fame though the Mavs have now become a very public team with bettors and have provided opportunities to bet against them in the right situation. Tonight, is that scenario as the Mavs are just 3-6 ATS at home versus winning teams, just 1-6 ATS overall as a home dog or small home favorite of less than 4-points. That streak includes a home loss to this same Clippers team earlier this season. Los Angeles is 8-3 SU their last eleven road games and coming off a solid road win against the red-hot Pelicans a few nights ago. The Clippers are top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency along with average margin of victory at +2.4PPG. The Mavs are top 10 at home in offensive efficiency and average MOV but rank 17th in defensive efficiency. Dallas is playing well their last five games, but the Clippers have been even better. With or without Paul George the Clippers get a big road win tonight.  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

Purdue has the largest home-road dichotomies in the Big 10 and one of the most drastic in the nation.  The Boilers are 0-5 SU in true road games with an average score of 55-68.  At home they are 8-1 winning by an average score of 77-54.  They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games (all losses on the road) and sit with a 3-4 Big 10 record which is tied for 9th in the league.  This is a huge home game for them and one they cannot afford to lose.  Their most recent home game, and their only win over their last 4 games, was vs 1st place Michigan State on Sunday, January 12th.  That was a game that saw the Boilermakers crush the best team in the conference by a final score of 71-42.  They have now won all but one of their home games by double digits and their defense has been lights out at Mackey Arena holding 6 of their 9 opponents under 60 points and allowing opponents to hit only 38% of their shots overall and just 25% from beyond the arc.  Purdue should be a little extra motivated for this game after losing @ Illinois 63-37 just 2 weeks ago.  They made just 15 of their 60 shot attempts in the game (25%) and only 3 of their 17 from beyond the arc (18%).  The Illini are 5-2 in conference and they have won 4 straight.  After beating Purdue, the Illini went to Wisconsin and won by 1 point (came from 10 down and just over 5:00 minutes remaining), they struggled at home to get by Rutgers by 3 and Illinois by 4.  Because of their run, Illinois is now ranked 24th by the AP Poll which is the first time this program has been ranked since 2014.  We often see teams that are not used to the national publicity of being ranked fall on their faces shortly after.  We feel this is the game the Illini do just that vs an extremely motivated opponent.  Illinois has had big time troubles when traveling to Purdue, as most Big 10 teams have, losing 9 of the last 10 with their average loss coming by 10.2 points.  We like Purdue to win again by double digits picking up another home cover.  Another note we’ve made in many of our Big 10 write ups, the home teams continue to win at a huge clip with a 116-10 SU record on the year if we take out the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska).  More of the same on Tuesday.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -7 over Indiana Pacers, 9PM ET

When the initial odds came out this morning this line immediately caught my eye. Why would the Jazz be this big of a favorite over the Pacers who have won five straight? It seems like an obvious choice to bet the Pacers so we won’t bite and will bet contrarian with Utah tonight. The Jazz have been great at home with a 16-3 SU record and an average point differential of +7.7PPG. Utah’s last four home wins have come by 22, 17, 24 and 23 points. Indiana will be playing their 3rd game in four days and coming off a game in the higher altitude of Denver last night. The Pacers used a ton of energy in a 4th quarter come from behind win that saw several starters play extended minutes. Fatigue will certainly play a part in tonight’s game against the rested Jazz. Indiana pounded Utah at home earlier this year by 19-points and we’re betting the Jazz return the favor here.

ASA PLAY ON: Sacramento Kings +6 over Miami Heat, 5PM ET

*Note this is a day game* The statistical support is underwhelming here as we are going against the Heat at home where they are 18-1 SU but we like the situation and the points with the Kings. Miami is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd game in four days and the second of a back to back after a loss yesterday in San Antonio. The Kings meanwhile had a day off after a loss in Utah. Statistically the Kings don’t have great numbers on the road this year with a 7-14 SU record but they’ve also been plagued by several key injuries. They are finally healthy with Bagley, Bjelica and Fox on the court together and should start trending up with a full roster. Sacramento is just 1-3 SU their last four on the road but two of the losses were at Denver and Memphis by 5 and 4-points. Miami has struggled this season when playing without rest with just 1 cover in seven tries this season. Don’t expect much energy in Miami for this day game and don’t be surprised when the Kings hand the Heat their second home loss of the season.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Old Dominion -4.5 over Charlotte, Monday at 4:30 PM ET

ODU has lost 3 straight, all road games, and now they sit at 2-3 in Conference USA.  They now have 3 straight home games and a chance to get back into the conference race.  One of those 3 road losses for the Monarchs was @ Charlotte on January 11th.  It was a close game with Charlotte winning 53-47 despite ODU going 1 of 22 from 3-point range (Charlotte made 8 three pointers) and making only 4 FT’s (Charlotte made 11 FT’s).  Those disadvantages from deep and at the foul line should have resulted in an easy Charlotte win at home and it did not.  ODU is a bit undervalued coming off 3 losses and due to their 6-12 record on the season.  They have played a very tough schedule (91st most difficult non-conference slate) including the likes of Illinois, VCU, Washington State, Northern Iowa, Richmond, and Loyola.  This is a very solid program under head coach Jeff Jones coming off a 26-9 record last season and getting to at least 25 wins in 4 of the last 5 seasons.  They are taking on a Charlotte team that has a better overall record at 10-6 but, unlike ODU, has played one of the easiest schedules in the country (316th SOS).  The 49ers have played 1 team ranked inside the top 100 this year and that was a loss vs Georgia State, currently ranked 98th.  Charlotte is also playing their 3rd road game in 5 days after winning @ Marshall by 2 points on Thursday and then losing @ WKY by 17 points on Saturday.  Old Dominion has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 SU and they’ve been favored by at least 10 points at home vs Charlotte each of the last 4 meetings.  Now they are laying only 4.5 and we like ODU to cover this one at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -1.5 over South Dakota State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET

South Dakota State sits at 5-1 and in 1st place in the Summit.  We feel they are overvalued right now and this is a great spot to go against them.  They have played a very easy conference schedule as they’ve already faced the 4 worst teams in the 9 team Summit.  Their other 2 games were vs Oral Roberts (win at home) and Nebraska Omaha (loss on the road).  They’ve played 3 road games in conference play losing to Omaha as we mentioned and the other 2 were wins but @ Denver and @ Western Illinois, the 2 worst teams in the league.  We picked this South Dakota team to contend for the Summit title this year as they returned 4 starters and another who sat out last season but started in 2018.  The started league play slowly with back to back road losses but have since won 2 of their last 3.  Their lone loss during that stretch was @ North Dakota State 72-70 on Wednesday night.  State is also one of the favorites to win the conference.  The Coyotes 11-8 overall record is also a bit misleading as they played 7 games spanning late November into late December without one of their top players Triston Simpson (Senior starting point guard).  Their record was 3-4 without him in the lineup.  They are 7-1 at home this year shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 80 PPG.  South Dakota State is 14-7 overall this year however they have beaten a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 200 this season (Oral Roberts at home).  Unlike South Dakota, they lost 4 of their top 5 players off last year’s team and and their coach who moved onto UNLV.  While they currently sit in 1st place, we feel the Jackrabbits are ripe for an upset.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs +1 over Miami Heat, 3PM ET

This is a great spot to back a veteran, proven team at home off a humiliating loss AND playing with nearly immediate revenge after losing in Miami just a few nights ago. San Antonio just lost at home to the Hawks who they had beaten 21 straight times on their home court. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in a sloppy 4th quarter. Good team respond after efforts like that and even though the Spurs aren’t contender this season, they are still a proud franchise with great coaching and will bounce back here. Miami has struggled on the road all season long with a 11-11 SU record away from home and a negative differential of -2.6PPG (14th). In their most recent meeting, the Heat shot remarkably well at home where they are 18-1, by hitting 47% for the field and 42% from 3. They typically don’t shoot that well away from home this season and face a well-motivated Spurs team. It’s not often the Spurs are a home underdog as it’s happened just 22 times since the start of the 2017 season and they have won 15 of those games. Not to mention they are 8-1-1 ATS their last ten when coming off a loss. We’re betting San Antonio here and invite you to do the same.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas City -7 over Tennessee, Sunday at 3 PM ET

The Titans are obviously on a great roll winning back to back road playoff games as an underdog.  However, now they are in a very tough situation playing their 4th consecutive road game vs a team that is even hotter than they are as the Chiefs have won and covered 7 straight games.  It’s very rare to see a team playing their 4th straight road game spanning into the playoffs.  In fact, out database, which goes back to 1980, reveals it has happened just 4 times and those road teams are 0-4 SU & ATS in that fourth game.  They’ve also had the equivalent of 3 straight road playoff games entering this one as their final regular season game @ Houston was a must win or the Titans would not be in the playoffs.  That takes a toll physically and mentally and that’s why the fourth game has come up all zeros in the past.  KC on the other hand had a week off heading into last week’s 51-31 win over Houston and will be playing again at home.  Just a huge situational edge for KC.  In their two wins thus far, the Titans were outgained in both (by a combined 265 yards) and QB Tannehill has thrown for only 71 & 83 yards.  As good as RB Henry has been, we believe Tennessee will need to do much more offensively in order to keep up with the Chiefs.  Last week the Titan defense faced a whopping 92 offensive snaps which is the equivalent of about a game and a half so that added to their tough road situation should have this defense tired by the 2nd half.  Baltimore had plenty of chances offensively as the Ravens were shut out on downs FOUR times inside Tennessee territory including 3 times inside the 21 yard line.  The Ravens only punted ONCE the entire game.  The Titans were very fortunate in our view.  KC’s last loss was back in November and it was vs this Tennessee team.  The Titans won that game 35-32 but the Chiefs dominated the stat sheet rolling up 530 yards to only 370 for Tennessee.  The Titans scored on a long fumble return and put up the game winning TD with just 23 seconds remaining in the game.  KC also missed 2 FG’s in the 4th quarter and held a 9 point lead in that game with around 6:00 minutes remaining in the game.  KC QB Mahomes put up 446 yards passing and 3 TD’s in that game and we expect another huge effort here.  Despite this number sitting at 7, we still feel the value is with KC.  Speaking of that first meeting, KC was favored by 5 @ Tennessee (late November) and now laying just 7 at home.  Last week Tennessee was +10 @ Baltimore so we would expect it to be about the same here, especially with the Titans travel situation being on the road for basically a full month now.    While Tennessee is getting most of the accolades for how they have been playing down the stretch and in the playoffs, let’s remember that KC has won 7 straight by an average of 17 PPG.  They also just beat the team that WON the AFC South (same division as Tennessee) by 20 points.  We think the Titans run ends here and KC wins by double digits.  

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Milwaukee Bucks -9 over Brooklyn Nets, 6PM ET

We typically or rarely lay points on the road in the NBA, especially a number as large as this one, but we’ll make an exception here with the Bucks. Milwaukee is in perfect harmony as a team which clearly can’t be said about the Nets with Kyrie Irving. Kyrie is easily one of the most skilled players in the NBA but is also a selfish me-first player that destroys team chemistry. The Nets actually have a better record without him on the court this season. The Bucks are capable of winning 70+ games this season with the #1 ranked defensive efficiency unit and the 3rd defensive efficiency numbers. Brooklyn on the other hand is 24th in offensive efficiency and 12th in DEFF. Brooklyn is 11-9 SU at home with an average differential of +0.8PPG. Milwaukee has the best average road differential in the NBA at +11PPG and have won 17 of 21 on the road this season. The Bucks have won their last five games by an average of +16.4PPG and they’ll get a double-digit win here.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON South Alabama -1 over Georgia Southern, Saturday at 4 PM ET

South Alabama was favored here on Thursday night by 2 points over the top rated team in the Sun Belt, Georgia State, and lost by 9.  The Jags actually shot better from the field (46% to 40%) but made only 2 three pointers compared to 15 for Georgia State.  South Alabama also only made 15 of their 24 FT’s (62%) and that from a team that shoots 75% from the line on the season.  Even with that they led by 6 with 12:00 minutes remaining and it was a 3 point game with just over 5:00 minutes remaining.  And remember that was vs the top team in the Sun Belt.  Now they face a Georgia Southern team that power rates as the 3rd best team in the conference yet the spread is basically the same.  Prior to that loss the Jaguars had won 3 straight including road wins at Texas Arlington (2nd rated team in the league) and at Little Rock (currently tied for 1st place).  They catch Georgia Southern playing their 2nd road game in 3 days and coming off a win @ Troy.  GSU has now won 3 straight but they were against the 3 lowest rated teams in the Sun Belt (UL Monroe, Troy, and UL Lafayette).  Even with their win @ Troy, the Eagles are still only 3-6 on the road this season with a defense allowing 73 PPG and nearly 47% away from home.  The home team has won 5 of the last 6 in this series with the only outlier coming last year when Georgia Southern topped the Jaguars here in OT giving the host a bit of extra incentive in this match up.     

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

Great spot for the Terps here.  They are off 2 consecutive road losses @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin.  Now sitting at 3-3 in the Big 10, they can’t afford to give this home game away before going on the road for 2 more games next week.  Purdue comes in off a huge home upset over Michigan State.  They key word there is home, where the Boilers are very good.  Not so much on the road.  Purdue is 1-4 this year in true road games (0-3 in the Big 10) with their only win coming @ Ohio who currently rates as the 10th best team in the MAC. Their road losses in conference play have come by 6, 14, and 26 points including a setback @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10.  They are not a very good shooting team to begin with ranking 283rd nationally at 41.7%, however those number drop significantly when they are on the road.  In fact, in their 5 road games the Boilers have managed to make only 35% of their attempts and just 25% from beyond the arc.  To put those poor numbers in perspective, if those were the full season percentages for Purdue, they would rank 347th out of 350 in both of those categories.  Not good to say the least.  Not only is Maryland in a semi-must win game here, they are back at home where they are 10-0 SU this season winning by an average of 18 PPG.  All but 1 of those 10 home wins have come by at least 10 points.  The Terps play great defense allowing opponents to shoot just 37% so don’t expect a poor shooting Purdue team to find their rhythm in this game.  Maryland has topped 70 points in 8 of their 10 home games while Purdue is averaging just 59 PPG on the road this year.  Last year when the Terps played host to the Boilers they were small dogs (+2) and rolled Purdue 70-56.  At Purdue the Terrapins almost pulled the upset a year ago losing by 2.  The Boilermakers were a much better team last year ranked consistently in Ken Pom’s top 10 throughout the season.  Maryland is a better team this year returning all but 1 key member from last year’s NCAA tourney team.  The Big 10 home teams continue to dominate with a remarkable 108-10 SU mark if you subtract the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska).  Great situation for Maryland and they are the better team this year.  Lay the small number.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON NC State -6.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Revenge is often an overused handicapping tool but there are absolutely some situations where we feel it plays a factor.  Quick revenge, as we call it, is one of those.  That’s what we have here as these teams just met 2 weeks ago today in Clemson and the Tigers pulled out an 81-70 win as a 1-point home favorite.  In that game the Wolfpack only made 5 of 21 from beyond the arc (23%) which was 10 percentage points down from their season average (33%) and the Tigers went to the line more often and made 13 more FT’s which turned out to be the difference.  Despite that NC State was down just 3 with 5:00 minutes remaining in the game.  Now they get Clemson in Raleigh and they have some momentum coming off an easy 80-63 win here over a good Miami FL team on Wednesday.  Not only that, one of their top players, CJ Bryce, was back in the line up after missing 4 consecutive games due to an injury.  Bryce did not play in their loss @ Clemson.  Speaking of the Tigers, we feel this is a fantastic spot to fade this team.  They are coming off 2 monumental wins beating UNC on the road last weekend after losing 59 STRAIGHT times @ North Carolina.  They followed that up with a court storming home win on Tuesday vs Duke.  Before beating the Tar Heels last weekend, Clemson had played 2 true road games this year losing by 18 @ Minnesota and by 19 @ Florida State.  Their home win vs Duke was impressive however their win @ UNC was nothing special as the Heels have already lost to the likes of Wofford, Pitt, and Georgia Tech at the Dean Dome this season.  The Wolfpack have won 10 in a road at home and 28 of their last 33 games here at PNC Arena.  Finally back at full strength and with revenge on their minds, we like NC State to win and cover this one.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Texas A&M -1.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET

A&M is flying under the radar right now because of their poor start to the season.  They were just 3-5 in the first 8 games and 4 of those losses came at the hands of top 100 teams.  Factor in the Aggies were still learning new head coach Buzz Williams new system and a poor start wasn’t all that surprising.  However, they have played very well as of late winning 5 of their last 7 with their only losses coming @ Arkansas and at home in OT vs LSU on Tuesday, a game they led by 6 with less than 2:00 remaining in the game.  That was the Aggies only loss at home this year (7-1 at home) and we expect them to come back and play with some fire today.  The oddsmakers continue to try and catch up with this team as they have covered 5 of their last 6 by a combined 57 points (+9.7 PPG vs the spread their last 6).  They catch South Carolina in an obvious letdown spot as the Gamecocks upset Kentucky on Wednesday night.  It was a game that UK led by 14 in the 2nd half and South Carolina had to battle back for the 3 point win.  Prior to that the Gamecocks had lost 3 straight games including a home game vs Stetson.  They are a poor shooting team (28% from 3) and make only 60% of their FT’s.  They are facing an A&M defense that is very good ranking 16th nationally allowing opponents just 36% and 23rd nationally at defending the arc allowing 28%.  They have held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 60 points or less.  This is also a game that A&M has had circled since last season when they played one of their worst games of the season at home vs South Carolina losing 71-54 as a 4-point favorite.  South Carolina is a young team with 7 underclassmen in their top 8 and we think they have trouble responding on the road off such a huge home win.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -8.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 8:30PM ET

The Spurs have been up and down, but we like them here off a road loss in Miami a few nights ago. Conversely, the Hawks are off a rare win, just their 3rd in their last eighteen games, and we don’t see them playing well here. San Antonio is 3-1 SU their last four home games which includes a 22-point home win over the Bucks in their last home game. Atlanta has the worst average differential in the NBA this season at minus -13.8PPG. In the Hawks most recent road contest they were just +8.5 point in Brooklyn who rates several spots lower than the Spurs in our power ratings and yet the number is the same in this matchup. Atlanta was drubbed by the Nets by 22-points in that road game. Atlanta is 1-7 SU off a win this season while the Spurs are 6-3 ATS at home off a loss. Current trending statistics have the Hawk shooting under 42% their last five games while the Spurs are hitting over 48% of their FG attempts. The Hawks defense over their last five games has been worse than the Spurs also. San Antonio is 11-9 SU at home this year but have faced 10 teams at home that made the playoffs last year and the Hawks aren’t of that caliber. Atlanta is just 6-14 ATS as a dog in the price range of 5 to 9.5-points this season and their 25th ranked defensive efficiency unit will struggle to slow the Spurs 9th ranked OEFF unit. The Hawks also have the 30th ranked offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. San Antonio by 10 plus points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Troy +5 over Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET

Troy comes in undervalued with a 7-11 overall record, 3-4 in the Sun Belt.  They are better than their record and playing very well right now.  After starting conference play with a 1-3 record, the Trojans have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss during that stretch coming on Saturday @ Arkansas State where they lost in OT.  Troy led by 11 in the game with just over 7:00 minutes to go and ASU was able to push the game to OT and get a win.  Prior to that the Trojans won by 8 @ Texas State (the pre-season favorite in the Sun Belt) as a 10 point dog and then topped 1st place Little Rock by 5 as a 2 point dog here at Trojan Arena.  Tonight they face a Georgia Southern team that is tied for 1st place (along with Little Rock and Georgia State) and we give Troy a great shot at beating a 1st place team at home for the 2nd straight week.  Georgia Southern is off back to back double digit wins at home vs the two worst teams in the conference (UL Monroe & UL Lafayette) to improve their home mark to 8-0.  However, on the road this GSU team is just 2-6 SU including conference losses @ App State and @ Little Rock.  Their lone Sun Belt road win was by 3 points @ Coastal Carolina.  Even if they win here, we expect it to be close and Southern is laying 5 points when one week ago, Little Rock (also in 1st place) was laying 2 @ Troy (and lost as we mentioned).  The current spread of -5 is GSU’s highest number they’ve laid on the road this season, tied with when they played @ Florida Gulf Coast who is ranked 320th, has a 5-14 record with 2 of their wins coming vs non-division 1 schools and 2 other wins in OT.  This line is too high.  Troy is better defensively allowing 41.6% (150th nationally) while Southern allows 44% and is a full 100 spots lower in total defense (250th nationally).  Troy has won 5 of their last 6 at home with their only loss coming by 5 vs App State in a game the Trojans led by 12 in the 2nd half.  Again, we feel Troy has a great shot to win this game and even if not, it should be close.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Orlando Magic +10.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

We like the Magic in this match up and the double-digits being offered by the oddsmakers. Let’s start with the Magic who have won 5 of their last seven games and getting great contributions from Vucevic, Fornier, Fultz and Gordon. The Magic have been great defensively all season long allowing the least amount of points in the NBA this season, but the offense has struggled. In their last five games though their offensive efficiency numbers are trending up significantly. The Lakers are an impressive 16-4 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory is +10.6 PPG which is on the number here. Of the Lakers 16 home wins though, six of those wins came against six of the worst teams in the NBA and were blowouts by 19 or more points which has inflated their average margin of victory numbers. Tonight, they face a relevant Magic teams that is obviously great defensively and capable of hanging within the spread. Los Angeles is also in a bad scheduling situation here as they just crushed the horrible Cavs and have a big game in Houston next. It looks like Anthony Davis will be out of the lineup again tonight which is a bonus for our Magic bet. Grab the points with the Magic who have been double-digit dogs just once this season and they covered that game.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Alabama +2.5 over Auburn, Wed at 9 PM ET

We’ve been looking for a spot to fade this overrated, undefeated Auburn team and we’ve had our eye on this spot @ Alabama.  We really like the Tide to come up big at home and win this game outright.  Bama is trending upward right now but they are just 1-2 in SEC play making this a very important game for them.  Their 2 conference losses have both come on the road vs two of the better teams in the league.  They lost in OT @ Florida and lost @ Kentucky on Saturday.  At home it’s been a different story for the Crimson Tide as they’ve already faced 4 top 100 teams at Coleman Coliseum and handled all of them easily, including their lone SEC win over Mississippi State 90-69.  Auburn is 3-0 in league play but they’ve faced the easiest conference schedule thus far and Alabama will be the 2nd highest rated team the Tigers have played all season.  The only other team they faced ranked inside the top 60 was NC State ranked 50th (Bama is 53rd) and Auburn played host to the Wolfpack and squeaked by with a 6 point win in a game they never led by more than 10.  These two teams have faced 3 common opponents this season with similar results with a slight edge actually to Bama.  The Tide beat Furman by 8, Auburn beat Furman by 3 in OT.  The Tide beat Miss St by 21, Auburn beat Miss St by 12.  The Tide beat Richmond by 12, Auburn beat them by 14.  While comparing results of common opponents doesn’t always tell the whole story, it does give us a solid comparison.  In our opinion and based on our power ratings, Alabama is undervalued right now and Auburn is overvalued.  Take the Tide to win this game outright as Auburn falls from the ranks of the unbeaten.   

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Marquette -3 over Xavier, Wed at 8 PM ET

We were on Marquette in a similar situation for our first top game of the season.  The Golden Eagles were coming off a bad loss @ Creighton and needed a win at home vs Villanova to avoid dropping to 0-2 in Big East play.  They rolled up a 71-60 win and cover in that game.  Now Marquette is off a tough OT loss to a surging Providence team and a 69-55 @ Seton Hall, the top rated team in the Big East, over the weekend.  This situation with Marquette at 1-3 in league play is even more desperate then when they face Nova a week and a half ago.  Xavier is in a similar spot at 1-3 in conference play but they are absolutely trending down over the last month or so.  They have played 3 of their 4 conference games at home yet still have only one 1 Big East game.  After starting the season 9-1 SU the Musketeers are just 3-4 their last 7 games.  They are coming off 2 straight double digit home losses which tells us they are full blown struggle mode.  The Golden Eagles step into this game as the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the nation at 40% and with Xavier hitting only 29% of their 3’s on the season (301st nationally) we are not sure they’ll have enough to make up that deficit from deep.  The Golden Eagles won here at Fiserv Forum by 18 points last year vs Xavier and they have won 24 of their 28 games here since the building opened at the beginning of last season.  We’ll have the best player on the court (Markus Howard) and it this spot we really like Marquette here. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -3 over Indiana, Wed at 7 PM ET - ASAwins Big 10 Game of the Week

This game has set up perfectly for Rutgers in our opinion.  The Scarlet Knights are a very good team this year and we’re catching them off a tight loss @ Illinois on Saturday in a game they never trailed by more than 6.  That dropped them to 3-2 in Big 10 play with their other loss coming @ Michigan State a game Rutgers trailed by just 6 with under 4:00 minutes remaining.  Tonight starts a huge stretch for the Knights with 4 of their last 5 at home.  They can make a big move in the Big 10 and it starts vs Indiana.  They are a perfect 11-0 at home including conference wins over top 35 opponents Penn State (35th), Wisconsin (22nd) and Seton Hall (13th).  They have won by at least 10 points in 8 of their 11 home games including an impressive 20 point victory over Seton Hall who is currently rated as the top team in the Big East.  The Knights are simply fantastic on defense ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th in the country allowing their opponents to shoot just 36.7% from the field.  Indiana is vastly overrated in our opinion with a 13-3 record.  They are 3-2 in Big 10 play as well but have played the easiest conference schedule to date having already faced both Northwestern & Nebraska, the two worst teams in the league by a mile.  We currently have IU rated as the 11th best team in the conference and Ken Pom’s ratings almost agree as he has them 10th.  The Hoosiers are coming off a big home win over OSU on Saturday in a game that was much closer than the 66-54 final score.  Before that IU struggled to beat Northwestern (won by 4) and Nebraska (by 6 in OT) and both of those games were at home.  They have played just 2 true road games on the season and they were smoked in both games losing by 20 @ Wisconsin and by 16 @ Maryland.  The Hoosiers are averaging just 60 PPG on 38% shooting on the road and tonight they run into one of the best defensive teams in the nation as we mentioned.  This Rutgers team is by far their best team in the last 15+ seasons.  We have them rated in the top 30 and Ken Pom has them at 32.  To put that in perspective, they haven’t been in the top 70 period since Ken Pom’s records began in 2002.  They’ve actually been outside the top 100 in most of those seasons.  Last year when these two met here, Rutgers was ranked 97th in KenPom and they won by 8.  Two years ago Rutgers was ranked 130th at the time they beat Indiana in the Big 10 tournament.  The Knights continue to fly under the radar and the oddsmakers haven’t even caught up with this team as they are 9-1 ATS their last 10.  The Big 10 is loaded this year which makes it tough to win on the road.  In fact, if you subtract the two worst teams (Nebraska & Northwestern) the top 12 teams in the conference have a record of 107-10 SU at home.  We really like Rutgers here and expect an easy cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON DePaul +9.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One

We’re getting some value here on DePaul because of their 0-3 start in the Big East.   Make no mistake this team is the best Blue Demon team in well over a decade.  Don’t forget this team won 12 of their first 13 games before their current 3 game losing streak.  They topped some very solid teams during that early run as well beating Iowa, Minnesota, and Boston College on the road and Texas Tech at home.  The Demons are 4-1 SU in their 5 road games this year with wins over some legit competition as we mentioned.  Their 4 losses this season have all been competitive with margins of 1, 5, 7, and 8 points.   Their 3 game Big East losing streak is nothing to be ashamed of as they took Seton Hall (the 2nd highest rated Big East team behind Butler) to the wire losing by 8 in a game the Demons led with 2:30 remaining in the game, an OT loss to a red hot Providence team, and then a 7 point loss @ St Johns over the weekend.  Nova is solid but nowhere near their National Championship caliber teams of a few years ago.  They are a young team with 2 freshmen & 2 sophomores in their top 6 rotation players.  Their defense has fallen way off this year ranking 74th in defensive efficiency after ranking in the top 13 nationally in that category each year from 2014 through last season.  They allow their opponents to shoot 44% on the season which ranks 246th.  DePaul is the much better defensive team so far this season allowing 38.8% which puts them on the top 40 in the nation.  The Wildcats are 3-1 in Big East play, however of their last 9 wins dating back to late February, 7 of those have come by 11 points or less, many against lower competition than they’ll be facing tonight vs DePaul.  Villanova is good, not great.  Facing a talented DePaul team in desperation mode, we just don’t see the Cats being able to pull away here.  It should be close throughout and we’ll take the Blue Demons plus the points.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Clemson (+) over LSU, Monday at 8 PM ET - After watching what happened during semi final weekend, we knew we’d get some value on Clemson in the Championship game. We just didn’t think it would be this much value. Clemson was favored by -2 with the line rising to -3 versus an Ohio State team that many felt was the best team in the country for the entire season, better than LSU. Now that same Clemson team is getting anywhere from 5 to 6 points versus LSU just a few weeks later? This is an absolute buy low (Clemson), sell high (LSU), spot for us. Most bettors are greatly affected by what they see most recently. They watched LSU roll over an Oklahoma team that in hindsight really had no right being in that game. They also watched Clemson get behind a great Ohio State team and battle their way back to a close win. So based on that LSU is going to crush Clemson right? A massive 80% of wagers have come in on LSU because of that recency bias. We love taking the contrarian viewpoint to go against the public here. Let’s first remember that Clemson’s opponent (Ohio State) was light years better than LSU’s opponent (Oklahoma). We liked the Sooners getting 2 TD’s in that game, however in hindsight they had a number of close games (5 Big 12 wins by 7 points or less) in a conference that simply turned out to be not very good. The Big12 won a grand total of ONE bowl game with 5 losses. A very impressive win for the Tigers but we’re pretty certain Clemson or Ohio State would have done the same thing if facing Oklahoma. We were impressed with Clemson’s resolve getting down 16-0 against the Buckeyes and rallying to win with a late TD drive. We’ve heard the narrative that OSU outplayed Clemson in the game and deserved to win. We disagree. While OSU did outgain the Tigers by 99 yards they also ran 23 more offensive snaps and still lost. On a yards per play basis Clemson outgained Ohio State 6.7 YPP to 6.0 YPP. As we stated a few weeks ago, the Clemson players and coaches are very familiar with this situation. This will be the 4th time in the last 5 years they’ve been in the National Championship game – winning 2 of those. This is eerily similar to last year’s National Championship when Alabama was a 6-point favorite and came in with an unbeatable offense averaging 48 PPG (same as LSU this year) and very few gave Clemson a chance. Of course the Tigers went on to roast the Crimson Tide 44-16 outgaining Bama 7.5 YPP to 6.0 YPP. LSU QB Joe Burrow is obviously outstanding. But let’s not forget Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is now 25-0 as a starter, has a National Championship under his belt, and is considered a generational talent that will almost positively be the #1 pick in the NFL draft when eligible. The underdog in the National Championship is now 6-0 ATS the last 6 years and 14-7 ATS the last 21 seasons. The oddsmakers sent out lines about a month ago on potential National Championship match ups and in this one they had Clemson as a 3-point favorite. Now they are getting nearly a full TD based almost solely on the results from their semi final games. Remember, the oddsmakers felt Clemson was 2 to 3 points better than OSU and they were correct with Clemson winning by 6. So if OSU would have won their game vs Clemson, based on the number versus the Tigers they would be between a 7 to 9 point dog against LSU. I’m sure you see our point that LSU is now overvalued. Are they a TD better than the two other teams in the country considered in the top 3? No way. We anticipate this game being very close. Getting points is a bonus and gives us the opportunity to win even if Clemson loses the game. We don’t think they will. We’ll call for Clemson to win their 3rd National Championship on 4 years.

ASA 10* Play on: Charlotte Hornets +8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 8PM ET

The Suns have certainly overachieved this season thus far but that success has led to some lofty spreads as favorites which is not a role they excel in. When favored by 5 or more points this season they are just 2-4 ATS. Phoenix is 4-6 SU their last ten games and the four wins have all come by less than the spread on this game. Charlotte has played a brutal stretch of games against some of the leagues best teams and now step down to their own level of competition. The Hornets were recently underdogs of +12 at Utah, +11.5 at Dallas and +12.5 at Boston and now the 15-23 SU Suns are laying -8.5 points. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS their last ten road games against a team with a sub .400 home winning percentage which is the case today against Phoenix. The Suns have just 1 cover in their last six games as a chalk. Grab the points with Charlotte.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 6:40 PM ET

With all of their injuries in the offensive backfield, the Seahawks have become a one trick pony.  With zero semblance of a running game, they will have to rely almost solely on the passing game and Russell Wilson.  While Wilson has had a fantastic season, his running game with RB Carson, Penny, and Prosise (all out) they did next to nothing on the ground the last week with just 19 yards rushing from their RB’s.  They caught a break last week with Eagle QB Wentz going out with a concussion in the 1st quarter leaving Philly to rely on backup QB McCown who had thrown 5 passes the entire season.  Even with that the Eagles offense was able to push the ball inside the Seattle 25 yard line on all 5 second half possessions but were unable to finish drives with McCown at the helm.  This is also a terrible spot for Seattle as two weeks ago they were in a playoff type game vs SF that came down to the final play, last week they traveled to the east coast and held on with Philly threatening late, and now they are on the road again.  They are also banged up on the offensive line with a number of starters sitting out practices this week.  Defensively the Seahawks rank in the bottom third of the NFL in most key categories and if you thrown out their game last week vs an Eagles offense that was very limited, they have allowed at least 24 points in 7 of their last 8 games.  Green Bay was able to rest last week and most of their players are at 100%.  They are much more balanced offensively with QB Rodgers and RB Jones able to mix it up.  Green Bay’s defense has also really stepped it up down the stretch holding their last 5 opponents to 20 points or less.  Wilson and Rogers have faced off 8 times in their careers with the home team winning all 8 games.  Also NFL home teams in the Divisional round (home & rest) have proven to have a huge advantage with a 25-7 SU record over the last 8 seasons.  We like GB to win this game by a TD or more.  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -2 over Michigan, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love this spot for the Gophers at home.  They are 2-3 in Big 10 play and have played the 2nd toughest conference slate of all league teams.  Their losses have all come on the road to Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue in double OT.  Their most recent game was the loss @ MSU on Thursday night.  The 74-58 Spartan win was a bit misleading as they were within 8 or less for much of the 2nd half.  Also no embarrassment losing @ Michigan State who is the best team in the Big 10.  At home the Gophers are 2-0 in conference play beating Ohio St by 13 and Northwestern by 9.  The Wolverines are 3-2 in conference play but in a tough spot here coming off a double OT home win vs Purdue on Thursday.  They are thin to begin (pretty much a 6 man rotation) especially with their best shooter Isaiah Livers out of the lineup.  In Thursday’s double OT win the Wolverines had 4 players log 39+ minutes.  It was a physically and emotionally draining game with neither team leading by more than 5 the entire game!  Now going on the road vs a very solid Minnesota team coming off a loss will be tough.  As with most Big 10 teams this year, Michigan has been very tough at home but in their 3 true road games they are 0-3 with all 3 losses coming by at least 9 points.  Livers, who is averaging over 13 PPG and shooting over 50% from 3, has missed the last 3 games and remains out for Michigan.  With him on the sidelines (groin injury) they have shot just 27% from beyond the arc.  Minnesota, on the other hand, is back to full strength with the return of starting PG Willis who missed between Dec 21 and Jan 2.  So Michigan is ranked 19th and an underdog to a team that has an 8-7 record?  While the masses jump on the ranked underdog here, we know Michigan is a bit overvalued right now while Minnesota is a very dangerous team that is better than their record.  Take the Gophers.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -11.5 over Louisiana Monroe, Saturday at 2 PM ET

GSU is rated by most analytics as the best team in the Sun Belt right now and our numbers agree with that.  They are 4-2 in conference play but their losses have come on the road and both were down to the wire losing by 2 @ Coastal Carolina and by 3 @ Arkansas State.  In their game @ Ark State the Panthers blew a 14 point 2nd half lead.  GSU is 11-6 and their other losses, besides their 2 Sun Belt setbacks, have all come on the road vs top notch teams.  They lost @ Duke by 11, @ SMU by 9, @ Georgetown by 8, and @ Charleston (the top team in the Colonial) by 4.  As you can see, they’ve played a very tough schedule ranked the 89th toughest in the country.  They have played only 1 home game in league play (4-2 record) and they won that game vs Louisiana 90-52 and they are a perfect 7-0 at home, 20-1 since the start of last season.  Louisiana Monroe is just 2-4 in league play despite playing the easiest schedule in the conference thus far.  They also fall way behind GSU on overall strength of schedule (285th) and even with that easy slate they have a 6-9 overall record.  The Warhawks are 0-6 on the road this year and they are playing their 3rd road game on 6 days having played @ Coastal Carolina on Monday (lost by 29) and @ Georgia Southern on Thursday (lost by 11 but trailed by 19 with 4:00 minutes remaining in the game).  Their road losses have come by an average of 17 PPG.  Monroe doesn’t match up well with Georgia State as they need to be able to hit 3’s to stay in this game.  The Warhawks are good at shooting from deep hitting 39% but they are facing a GSU team that allows opponents to hit only 28% of their 3’s (21st in the nation).  Other than shooting 3’s, La Monroe is not good offensively as they are poor inside the arc and they don’t shoot FT’s well.  They average only 63.8 PPG (326th nationally) and in their road games they’ve only averaged 52.8 PPG.  That’s a HUGE problem here as we don’t feel they’ll be able to keep up with Georgia State.  That’s because the Panthers average 80 PPG and at home they are putting up 86 PPG.  GSU is a very good shooting team (69th overall and 6th best 3-point shooting team in the country) and we just don’t see ULM having a chance to stay in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Iowa +2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET

This is a huge game for the Hawkeyes.  Sort of a must win already even though it’s early in the season.  Iowa is currently 1-3 in Big Ten play and they are off back to back road losses @ Penn State and @ Nebraska.  The Hawkeyes have played just one home game in conference play and that was a 20 point win over Minnesota.  They can’t afford a loss here and we expect a great effort.  Maryland is 3-1 in Big 10 play but their schedule has been the opposite of Iowa’s with 3 home games and just one road game.  They are off back to back big home wins over Indiana and Ohio State and we would expect them to be a bit flat after knocking off the Buckeyes earlier this week.  The Terps have played just 2 true road games and lost both including a 7 point loss @ Penn State.  Maryland is not a great shooting team ranking 157th in shooting percentage and 217th in 3 point shooting percentage.  On the road they’ve been worse, as we mentioned they are 0-2 on the road, and shooting just 38%.  Iowa is 6-1 SU at home this year and 5-2 ATS shooting over 47%.  The Big 10 is so incredibly balanced this year it’s going to be tough to get wins on the road.  That has proven true thus far.  If you subtract the 2 worst teams in the conference (Nebraska & Northwestern) the home teams are an incredible 99-9 SU this season.  Iowa gets a much needed home win on Friday Night.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON California -1.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 10:30 PM ET

Cal has lost 8 of their last 10 yet they are the favorite here vs Washington State for good reason.  The Bears have played a very tough schedule to date (59th rated SOS) and 5 of their last 10 games have come against teams rated inside the top 100 and 9 of those 10 were vs opponents ranked in the top 140.  Compare that with Washington State who has played the 329th toughest schedule in the nation not playing a team ranked in the top 75 all season and facing 5 opponents ranked below 300.  The Cougars have won 7 of their last 8 yet come in as an underdog vs a Cal team that has just 6 wins on the season.  Wazzou has played 7 straight home games and they haven’t played a road game since December 4th.  They are 1-1 in true road games this year beating a bad Idaho team (ranked 318th) and losing by 8 @ Santa Clara.  Historically the Cougs have been a terrible road team winning just 6 times in their last 42 true road games.  Despite playing the vast majority of their games at home Wazzou has shot the ball very poorly all year making only 39% of their attempts (319th nationally) and just 29% of their 3 point attempts (312th nationally).  In their road games they’ve been even worst making 37% of their attempts and only 23% from deep.  The Bears are 6-2 at home this year with their only losses coming to St Mary’s & Harvard, both top 95 teams.  They are solid defensively allowing 41.5% which will be a problem for a bad shooting WSU team.  Cal will be jacked for this game as they know it’s a potential win.  It’s the only game we have them favored in the rest of the season.  We like the Bears to win this one at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oregon -3.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 9 PM ET

We think this Arizona team is solid but a bit overvalued at this point of the season.  They are very young starting 3 freshman and they have played a grand total of ONE true road game this season, a loss @ Baylor.  After starting the season 9-0, the Wildcats have struggled as of late winning just 2 of their last 5 games.  In their first 9 games Arizona played just one team currently ranked inside the top 90 and that was Illinois and the game was in Tucson.  Over their last 5 games they have played 3 top 90 teams and lost to all 3 of them (St Johns, Gonzaga, and Baylor).  Their best wins this season have come against Illinois (29th), New Mexico State (90th), Arizona State (93rd) and Wake Forest (95th).  Three of those four games were played at home and the other vs Wake Forest was a 7-point win on a neutral court.  The Cats have played a true road game in over a month and now they must face one of the best teams in the nation in a tough environment.  The Ducks are 8-0 at home this year and they have won 14 of their last 15 games here at Knight Arena.  They are a great offensive team hitting 50% of their shots on the season (5th best in the nation) and almost 40% of their 3 point attempts (10th in the nation).  They are lethal offensively at home hitting 55% of their shots and 44% of their 3 pointers.  The Ducks are led by a senior point guard Peyton Pritchard that is among the best in the nation.  Oregon has dominated the Cats here in Eugene as of late winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.  As good as Arizona has been, OU has controlled this series overall in recent meetings winning 9 of the last 14.  This line is more than manageable for the Ducks as home and we’ll call for them to win and cover. 

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 8 PM ET

This is almost a must win for Texas State who steps into this game with just a 1-4 record in Sun Belt.  That record is very misleading as they’ve played 4 of their first 5 conference away from home.  They’ve also played a very tough conference slate thus far already facing Georgia State, Georgia Southern, and Arkansas Little Rock, 3 of the top 5 teams in the league, all on the road.  Coastal Carolina (3-2 in league play), on the other hand, has played the 4th easiest conference slate with 3 of their first 5 games at home.  The Chanticleers are coming off a blowout home win over the 2nd lowest rated team in the Sun Belt (Louisiana Monroe) and now must go on the road for the first time since December 21st.  Texas State will be extra motivated here off a home loss to Troy as a 10 point favorite.  It was their first game home after a 4 game road trip and they had only one day off to get ready after playing on the road on Jan 4th and then at home on Jan 6th.  The Bobcats played their worst game of the year in that one and we expect a bounce back effort here.  It was their only home loss of the season as they are now 5-1.  State was one of the favorites in the Sun Belt entering the season and they are undervalued now at 1-4.  They have handled Coastal Carolina in 5 of the last 6 meetings and in a must win spot at home we’ll call for the cover.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET

The Celtics have lost twice to the 76ers this season and can’t afford another loss to one of their biggest rivals. In fact, the Celtics had won 17 of the last nineteen regular season meetings with the Sixers prior to the start of this season. Boston is off a pair of losses including a humbling blowout at home last night to the Spurs so expect a focused team tonight. There shouldn’t be any concern for fatigue here on the side of the Celtics as no starter logged over 30-minutes last night. The Sixers have one of the best home court records and average point differential this year at 17-2 and +9.7PPG and they’re only favored by a bucket here? Boston has the 4th best road differential at +5.9PPG and have been very reliable on the road off a loss with a 4-1 record this season. Dating back to the start of the 2013 season, Stevens and the Celtics have won 60% of their games when coming off a defeat, which is the 6th best record in the NBA over that span of time. Philadelphia will be shorthanded without Joel Embiid tonight who has 53-points, 25-rebounds and 9 assists in the previous two meetings this season. The 76ers haven’t covered a number in five straight games while the C’s are 5-1 ATS their last six as a road dog. Boston wins this one outright!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas -5 over Iowa State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET

We have this line power rated to KU -7 so the value is on the Jayhawks in our opinion.  Kansas has just 2 losses on the season to Duke way back on November 5th and then a 1 point setback @ Villanova.  They have played the toughest schedule in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy yet all 11 of their wins have come by more than 5 points which is tonight’s spread.  KU has played 13 games on the season and ISU will be just the 7th highest rated team they’ve played this year to give you an idea of their schedule strength.  This number is set low because ISU has had success vs Kansas in Ames with a decent 3-3 SU record over the last 6 seasons.  However, this Cyclone team is not the equivalent of teams they’ve had in the past.  We have this team rated in the mid 60’s this season and the teams that beat KU here the last 3 times were ranked 17th, 15th, and 16th in our power ratings at the time of the game.  We wouldn’t even really consider those big upsets so to speak.  This year’s Iowa State team already has 6 losses and they are just 2-5 SU vs top 100 teams.  They also have 2 home losses already this year getting whipped by Iowa 84-68 and losing to Florida A&M who was ranked 311th at the time.  Their best player Haliburton missed the Florida A&M game but that tells you about the surrounding cast this season which is way down from past seasons.  Despite playing the tougher schedule, KU is 13th in offensive efficiency (ISU is 26th) and 2nd in defensive efficiency (ISU is 99th).  The Jayhawk defense allows opponents to shoot just 33% which is #1 in the nation compared to Iowa State who allows 43% which is 170th in the nation.  Kansas will also have a big edge on the boards in this game as the Cyclones are very poor on the defensive glass (298th nationally) and not much better on the offensive glass (197th).  Kansas has been a great road team under Bill Self winning 27 of their last 40 true road games outright and they get another tonight.  KU with the win and cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas State +1 over TCU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPNU

TCU has played one of the easier schedules for a Power 5 school (244th SOS) and along with that the vast majority of their games have been at home.  This will, in fact, be their FIRST true road game of the season and they Frogs have not left the state of Texas since playing in a tourney in Las Vegas in late November.  They are 10-3 on the season and they should probably have a better record than that as they’ve been a favorite in EVERY game this year due to playing a weak schedule and almost all home games.  KSU has just a 7-6 record but they’ve already played nearly half of their games (6) away from home.  All of their losses have come against top 100 teams with the exception of Bradley who ranks just outside the top 100.  Five of their six losses have gone to the wire with margins of 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 points vs solid competition.  The Wildcats are 6-1 at home (22-3 SU their last 25 here) and this will be just their 2nd home game since December 11th.  Over the weekend they traveled to Oklahoma to take on the Sooners and lost by 6 but led by double digits around midway through the 2nd half.  TCU relies very heavily on the 3 point shot which at times does not travel well.  Over 40% of their points come from beyond the arc and KSU’s defense has been very good defending the arc allowing less than 31%.  TCU almost never gets to the FT line as 11.8% of their points come from the stripe which is dead last in the nation.  That means they better be making their 3’s and for a team that hasn’t been away from home since November, that might be a tough task.  This is a big home game for KSU who is now 0-1 in the Big 12 after their road loss on Saturday.  They are 6-1 at home vs TCU since 2013 and we fully expect an outright win here.        

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UT Arlington -5.5 over South Alabama, 8:00 PM ET

UTA enters this game with just a 5-10 overall record and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games.  They are much better than their record and their current stretch gives us some nice value here.  First of all, the Mavericks have played a brutally tough schedule which ranks as the 10th most difficult in college basketball to this point.  This is their first home game in a month as they’ve just finished a 5 game road trip.  Despite playing a very tough schedule, 8 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less including @ Arkansas Little Rock on Saturday (3 point loss).  The Mavs definitely have some impressive losses, so to speak, they took Gonzaga, currently ranked #1 in the nation, to the wire on the road losing by 6.  They lost at Nevada (top 85 team) by 7 and at Furman (top 65 team) by 1.  All of their losses have come vs teams currently ranked 159th or better via Ken Pomeroy and tonight they face a South Alabama team ranked below 200.  The Jaguars are 1-3 on the road with their only win coming by 3 points vs Louisiana who is ranked 266th.  South Alabama’s 3 road losses have all come by 18 points or more with 2 of those 3 losses coming vs teams ranked lower that UT Arlington.  They just lost by 20 points on Saturday @ Louisiana Monroe who is ranked as the 9th best team in the Sun Belt Conference.  This will also be the Jaguars 3 straight road game in just a 5 day span.  Arlington has the much better defense (123rd in defensive efficiency) and they will be facing a South Alabama defense that ranks below 300th in the same category.  The Mavs were picked to finish 2nd in the Sun Belt by the coaches before the season started and at 1-3 currently in conference play (all road games), this is a must win.  UTA has won 5 straight in this series by an average of 14 PPG and they’ve been favored by at least 12 points their last 3 games at home in this match up.  Now, because of their misleading start to the season, we’re laying a much lower number here.   Texas Arlington is the side tonight. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Miami-Ohio Redhawks, Monday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #280

The Redhawks went 5-0 in games decided by 7 points or less this season.  However, in games decided by 15 points or more Miami-Ohio went 2-4.  The odds makers posted a big line on this game and we feel it is justified and like the fact that the Redhawks tend to end up on the wrong side of these blowouts.  Miami-Ohio managed more than 27 points just 3 times in 13 games this season.  Compare that to a Louisiana-Lafayette team that was held below 28 points just ONCE this entire season.  The Redhawks simply won't be able to keep up with the high-powered offense of the Ragin Cajuns.  Louisiana averaged 43.1 points per game in their 10 wins this season.  You can see why we're expecting a blowout here.  On the season the Ragin Cajuns averaged 501.3 yards per game.  By way of comparison, Miami averaged only 305.9 yards per game on offense.  Additionally, Louisiana allowed an average of only 19.9 points per game while the Redhawks allowed 28.2 points per game.  The location of the Alabama Bowl in Mobile, AL of course also favors Louisiana.  The Ragin Cajuns have some extra motivation after losing badly in last year's bowl game against Tulane as they fell to the Green Wave by a margin of 17 points.  They're going to take advantage of mismatches this time around as they face a MAC team that won some tight games this season with "smoke and mirrors" as their full season stats reflect.  Miami gets exposed in this game and we look for UL-Lafayette to roll big.  Lay it!  Bet the Ragin' Cajuns in evening action Monday.

ASA 9* PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets +5 over Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET

The Indiana Pacers have played the 26th easiest schedule to date and are a bit over-rated with their current roster without Brogdon and Oladipo here. Indiana has a negative road differential of minus 0.7PPG which is 10th best in the NBA but they are 7-10 SU away from home. That tells us a lot about this team which has just ONE road win over a team with a winning record. The Pacers are trending down right now with a 1-4 SU record their last five games while the Hornets are trending slightly up. Charlotte has won two straight games and despite a losing home record their average loss margin of -3.7PPG will get the cash in this match up. These teams met on December 15th in Indianapolis with the Pacers coming out on top 85-107 but Charlotte had an uncharacteristic bad shooting night of just 31%. The Hornets shoot nearly 45% at home and have covered 9 of the last ten meetings with Indiana on this court. Charlotte is the play.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +9 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line is way too high in our opinion.  It should be under 7 according to our power ratings.  To give you an idea of what we are talking about, this is the 5th highest spread of the SEASON for New Orleans.  The only teams they faced in which they were laying more than 8 points were Carolina (twice), Atlanta, and Arizona, all teams with losing records.  For comparison’s sake, just a few weeks ago the Saints were favored by 8 here vs Indianapolis who finished with a 7-9 record.  On the other side, this is by far the largest underdog role Minnesota has faced this year.  They were +2.5 @ Seattle (a playoff team) in December and +3 @ Green Bay who is the #2 seed in the NFC.  Recent results have pushed this number too high.  Minnesota closed out the season with 2 losses as they played their worst game of the season @ home vs Green Bay and then lost to Chicago but sat their starters as they were already locked into their playoff position.  New Orleans closed out the season with 3 easy wins but 2 were vs teams who had nothing to play for including Carolina last week who had completely packed it in and had already started interviewing coaches after firing Ron Rivera.  Their lone semi impressive win over that 3 game stretch was beating Tennessee.  However even in that game the Titans jumped out to a 14 point lead but turned the ball over 4 times allowing the Saints to come back and win that one (Saints were outgained).  That win over the Titans was their only win by more than 7 points vs a team that ended the season with a winning record.  The Vikings have played very tight even in their losses with the exception of their game vs Green Bay a few weeks ago.  If you throw that game out, Minnesota’s losses have come by an average of 5 PPG.  Despite New Orleans winning 13 games and Minnesota 10, these two are almost dead even in point differential on the season (Saints +117 & Vikings +104) and Minnesota actually has outgained their opponents by +0.6 YPP compared to New Orleans +0.5 YPP.  We anticipate a close game here and getting more than a TD is a gift in our opinion.  Take Minnesota on Sunday.   

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Utah State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET

San Diego State steps into this game with a perfect 14-0 record so why is USU favored?  Looks too easy to take SDSU.  We like Utah State here.  The Aggies are no slouch as they are 13-3 on the year and were picked by the coaches of the Mountain West to win this conference.  They were 28-7 a year ago and return a number of key players from that team.  They are coming off a poor effort @ UNLV losing 70-53 and we love looking at good teams off poor performances.  Our guess is they were looking ahead to this huge match up.  The Aggies are very tough to beat at home as they are undefeated here this year and have won 23 of their last 24 home games with their only loss during that run coming by 1 point.  These teams met 3 teams last year with Utah State winning twice including here at home 70-54.  The Aggies were favored by 8 at home last year to give you an idea of the value we are getting here.  SDSU is very good this year but they haven’t played a true road game in a full month.  Their starting center Nathan Mensah is most likely out here after he sat out their game vs Fresno earlier this week with a respiratory issue.  He is a big loss as he leads the Aztecs in block shots, offensive rebounding and overall rebounding.  Another key frontcourt player, Aguek Arop, looks like he will miss his 6th consecutive game.  With Mensah out earlier this week, head coach Brian Dutcher was forced to change his starting line up for the first time this year.  It didn’t matter as they were at home facing a Fresno team that is now 4-10 on the season and 0-3 in the Mountain West.  It will matter here.  We feel SDSU needs to be at full strength to come into USU and get a win and they are not.  They are facing a team that shoots very well at home (48%) and defends very well at home (allowing 35%).  The Aggies also shoot very well from the FT line (77%) and they get to the line a lot.  That’s not a great match up for a SDSU team that does foul quite a bit as their opponents this year 22.5% of their points from the FT line (the 40th most in college hoops).  We like this veteran Utah State team to win this game at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over Houston, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

Despite winning the weak AFC South, we feel Houston is the worst team in the AFC playoffs.  Football Outsiders Efficiency rating agrees with us as they have the Texans rated 19th overall in the NFL which is the lowest rating of any team in the playoffs, not just the AFC.  They have been outgained on the season, outscored on the season, and their defense is the worst unit in the playoffs.  Speaking of defense, we get a huge edge on that side of the ball with the Bills who rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense allowing just 298 yards which is nearly a full 100 yards less than a Houston defense that ranks 28th in total defense.  The Buffalo defense allowed more than 21 points only 3 times the entire season and they gave up 17 or less in 10 of their 16 games.  We anticipate the Texans struggling on offense here.  They faced only 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 10 at Football Outsiders and scored 7 vs Baltimore, 23 vs Tampa (16 points from the offense), and 28 vs New England.  Their 28 points vs the Patriots was a bit of an aberration as Houston was actually held to just 276 total yards.  Many may look at the Bills offense and see them having problems here as they average just 19 PPG.  On top of that over their last 4 they have not topped 17 points.  However, over their last 4 games they have faced 4 defenses ranked inside the top 7 in the NFL, thus the struggles as of late.  When facing a defense ranked 20th or lower (Houston ranks 28th) Buffalo averaged 25 PPG.  They run the ball very well (8th in the NFL at 128 YPG) and they are facing a Houston defense that allows 4.8 YPC (27th in the NFL).  On a yards per play basis, the Houston defense ranks dead last in the NFL (tied with Cincinnati) allowing 6.1 YPP.  These two met here last year in the regular season and the Texans prevailed 20-13.  The game was tied at 13-13 with under 2:00 minutes remaining and Buffalo had the ball.  A pick 6 from the Texan defense with 1:28 remaining gave Houston the point margin.  The Bills are much better than a year ago and we think they go in and win this game.  Small underdogs of 1 to 3 points in the Wildcard round are a money making 35-20 ATS since 1978 (64%).  Take the points here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans +10.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

This showdown will have WAY more meaning for the cast-away Lakers that now play for New Orleans than it will for the current Lakers team. You can bet Ingram, Ball and Josh Hart have had this game circled for some time now and will give max effort against the team that let them go. We don’t feel Anthony Davis has the same hostile feelings towards New Orleans as he was the one that wanted out of town. The Pelicans are playing at a high-level right now and are off a 15-point drubbing of Houston which makes them 5-1 SU & ATS their last six games. That current run includes wins over Portland, Denver and Indiana along with Houston. The Lakers are an impressive 12-4 SU at home this season but their average margin of victory is +8.5PPG which clearly isn’t enough to grab the cash in this one. The Pelican efficiency numbers are good their last six games and they are trending in the right direction. The first meeting of the season was decided by just 4-points which will be the margin again tonight.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -3.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET

The Jazz are playing fantastic right now with wins in 8 of their last nine games, including a recent road win against the Clippers. Utah does not have great road statistics, but they’ve played a tough road schedule which has dramatically impacted their numbers. The Jazz have already faced the best teams in the East and have two road games against the Clippers and one against the Lakers.  We are now getting value with Utah on the road here laying a marginal number. The Jazz have some of the best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers their last five games with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. The Bulls have won 3 of their last five games but those W’s have come against the league’s dregs of Atlanta, Detroit and Washington who have a combined 29-72 SU record. The Bulls offense has struggled all season with the 25th ranked scoring offense and the 30th worst shooting team in the NBA. The Bulls will struggle to score against the Jazz defense that is one of the best in the NBA year in and year out. Jazz by 10 in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON St Louis +3 over Duquesne, Thursday at 7 PM ET

These two both come into this game with just 2 losses but all records are not created equal.  Duquesne is 10-2 but they have played a grand total of ZERO teams ranked inside the top 115.  Their best win of the season was a 3 point win vs Indiana State on a neutral court.  This St Louis team (ranked 91st) will be the best team they’ve faced this season.  The Dukes are reeling a bit right now as well losing their last 2 games, vs UAB by 9 and Marshall by 22, after opening the season with 10 straight wins.  St Louis has a 10-2 record and has played the much tougher schedule.  The Billikens have faced 4 top 100 teams and they beat two of them including Kansas St on the road.  Their only losses are to Auburn and Seton Hall, both ranked in the top 25 per our power ratings.  STL has excelled away from home this year going 3-1 in road/neutral games with their only loss vs Auburn in Birmingham, AL.  This will NOT be a true home game for Duquesne as they are renovating their arena this season and the Dukes will be playing at surrounding college venues.  Tonight’s game will be played @ Robert Morris College with is about 17 miles away from the Duquesne campus and they have not played here yet this season.  So not only are the students gone on break, but both teams are playing in an unfamiliar arena so we give Duquesne no home court advantage whatsoever tonight.  These two A10 opponents met twice last season with Duquesne winning by 4 at home (their actual home court) and STL winning by 11 at home.  One glaring stat in those 2 games was the Billikens offensive rebounding prowess.  In those two games combined they gathered an amazing 47 offensive rebounds!  They are again one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (12th in the nation) and we look for them to dominate the boards again.  St Louis is also the better defensive team allowing opponents to shoot just 39%.  We’ll take the tougher team tonight as an underdog.    

#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati (-) over Boston College, Thursday at 3 PM ET - We really like this situation for a solid Cincy team. The Bearcats have just 3 losses on the season with one coming vs Ohio State and they lost their final 2 games of the season both at Memphis on back to back weekends. Those are far from terrible losses as those 2 teams combined for a 25-1 regular season record. OSU is obviously one of the top few teams in the nation and Memphis, who had 1 loss on the season, gave a very good Penn State team all they could handle in their bowl game. Both of their final 2 losses @ Memphis were games that went to the wire and the yardage was almost dead even in both. One of those losses Cincinnati was forced to use freshman QB Bryant because starting QB Ridder was injured. Speaking of Ridder, his shoulder was not 100% down the stretch and the Bearcat passing game was not great because of that. However, with the extended time off our word is that Ridder is back to 100% which will make this offense much more dynamic. For comparison’s sake, if we throw out the OSU game in which Cincy was shutout, they averaged 37 PPG when Ridder was healthy. Over the final 4 games when his shoulder was not right, they put up only 21 PPG. We expect them to have a very good day offensively vs a BC defense that ranks 125th nationally in total defense allowing 481 YPG. The BC offense relies very heavily on the run. After starting QB Brown went out with a season ending injury in mid October, the Eagles have averaged only 131 YPG passing. They were successful running the ball this year (267 YPG) the problem is, RB Dillon was the main reason for that as he rushed for 1900 yards and 15 TD’s. He is not playing in this game as he prepares for the NFL draft which subtracts easily their top offensive weapon. BC is also in transition as head coach Adazzio has already been fired, offensive coordinator Bajakian has moved onto Northwestern, and WR coach Gunnell is coaching the team as they wait for Ohio State DC Hafley to take over after this game. Cincy is excited to be playing a Power 5 opponent, they have the MUCH better defense, and no turmoil with their coaches. Lay the TD here with Cincinnati.

#255 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Florida State (+) over Arizona State, Tuesday at 2 PM ET - ASU will be playing this game without their 2 top offensive weapons as RB Benjamin (1,100 yards rushing and 10 TD’s) and WR Aiyuk (1,200 yards receiving and 8 TD’s) are both sitting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Their backup RB’s have COMBINED for only 85 yards on the ground this season. For a team that ranks 89th in total offense and 94th in scoring offense, they can ill afford to lose their top 2 playmakers. Many may expect that FSU might be distracted with their coaching situation but we argue that ASU is the team that will be at a bigger disadvantage in that regard. FSU fired Willie Taggart but the interim coach Odell Haggins has been on the Seminole staff since 1994 and coached their final 3 regular season games this year. He also led them to a bowl win in 2017 in a similar situation. The players really like Haggins and he’ll be on new head coach Mike Norvell’s staff next year. ASU, on the other hand, will be playing this game without their offensive coordinator (who was fired at the end of the regular season) AND their defensive coordinator left 10 days ago to take the head coaching job at New Mexico. FSU will also be without their top RB Akers, however they are more experienced behind him with his back up Laborn with 300 yards rushing and 4 TD’s on the season. FSU QB Blackmon has thrown for nearly 5,000 career yards and 40 TD’s should find plenty of openings vs an ASU pass defense that ranks 114th in pass defense. Blackmon will also have his full complement of weapons, including top WR Terry who has 1,800 yards receiving and 16 TD’s over the last 2 seasons. Arizona State has been a money burner in the favorite role going 0-8 ATS their last 8 in that role. This year alone they are 0-6 ATS as a favorite losing half of those games outright. FSU is happy to be back in a bowl after missing the post-season last year for the first time since 1981. We expect them to play well here and we feel an upset brewing.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6.5 over Villanova, Monday at 6:30 PM ET

We have this game power rated to Villanova favored by -3.5 at home so we feel the value is with Xavier.  Nova simply isn’t the team they were a few years ago when they were making Final 4’s and winning National Championships.  They are 9-2 this season with a blowout loss to Ohio State and a 9-point loss to Baylor.  They are coming off a 1 point home win vs Kansas which was impressive but that along with a 7 point win over Mississippi State are their only top 100 wins.  They are a very young team this year with 2 freshmen and 2 sophomores in their top 6 (they basically play just 6 players).  How do they respond after knocking off then #1 Kansas?  This might be a tough game for them.  Xavier is very good this year.  They are the far more experienced team with 4 starters back from last season + the addition of grad transfer Jason Carter who was one of the top players in the MAC last year playing for Ohio.  Their only losses have been down to the wire games vs Florida (lost by 5) and Wake Forest (lost by 2).  They are coming off an impressive 8-point road win @ TCU 8 days ago.  The Muskateeers really played well at the end of last season with this same group of players winning 8 of their last 11 games.  Add that performance to this season and XU is 19-5 their last 24 games.  Their losses during that stretch have come by margins of 2, 2, 4, 5, and 5 points with two coming in OT.  One of those games was in last year’s Big East tourney vs this Villanova team that eventually went on to win the conference tourney.  That game went to OT with Nova winning by 4.  This year’s Xavier team is improved over last season while we feel Villanova has taken a step back.  We think the Muskateers have a decent shot at the outright upset and if not, we expect another close game.  Take the points. 

#250 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON California (-) over Illinois, Monday at 4:00 PM ET - We obviously following Illinois very closely being in Big 10 country.  While they step into this game with a 6-6 record, this is NOT a .500 type team.  They were extremely fortunate to get wins in a number of games this year.  They beat Wisconsin, but were drastically outgained and caught the Badgers coming off Iowa with OSU next.  Even with that Wisconsin led basically the entire game and made a number of key mistakes in the final 6:00 minutes to lose that one.  Versus Michigan State they trailed by 21 in the 4th quarter and had everything possible go their way in that 3 point win despite getting outgained by more than 100 yards.  The Illini were rolled 29-10 in their season finale vs a Northwestern team that hadn’t won a conference game entering that contest.  In conference play, this Illinois team was outgained by nearly 400 yards vs Nebraska, by nearly 300 vs a poor Northwestern offense, by 239 vs Minnesota, by 233 vs Michigan, and by more than 100 vs Wisconsin and Michigan State.  You get the point.  For the conference season the Illini averaged 290 YPG while giving up 440 YPG.  In non-conference play they lost at home to Eastern Michigan, struggled to beat a terrible UConn team that finished the year 2-10, and topped Akron who might be the worst team in all of college football.  While we feel Illinois is drastically overvalued, this Cal team is undervalued in our opinion.  A glance at the full season offensive stats doesn’t tell the entire story.  Sure the Bears struggled offensively, however, when QB Chase Garbers started and played the entire game (he was injured for about half the season) this California team was a perfect 6-0.  With Garbers at QB, the Bears started the season 4-0.  He was injured in the 5th game vs Arizona State with the score tied 7-7 and they went on to lose that game.  They were 1-5 SU without him under center (including the ASU loss) and Garbers came back to start the final 2 games which were wins @ Stanford and @ UCLA putting up over 400 total yards in each of those games.  They averaged 25 PPG with Garbers under center and 15 PPG when he was unable to play.  This Cal defense is good enough to hold Illinois in check.  As much heat as Cal’s offense received this year for being lethargic, they averaged more YPG than the Illinois offense did this year.  The Illini struggle to move the ball through the air averaging just 177 YPG (110th nationally) and the will have problems getting their running game going vs a Cal defense that ranks 26th vs the rush.  Cal’s defense played very well against some potent offenses this year holding Oregon to 17 points, Washington St to 20 points, UCLA to 18 points and Ole Miss to 20 points.  We have advantages on offense and defense in this game and its being played in San Francisco which is only 14 miles from the Cal campus giving them the location edge as well.  We have a feeling the Illinois, playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2014, might just be happy to have gotten to this point.  Cal, on the other hand, is very focused on winning this one after losing in OT vs TCU in their bowl game last year.  The Bears win and cover this one. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Seattle +3.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

This line is a big time overreaction to what happened last week.  Our power ratings have this line at dead even yet we’re getting more than a FG with Seattle at home.  The Seahawks lost last week at home vs Arizona (we were on the Cards) in a game that really wasn’t that important for Seattle.  Even with a win over Arizona last week, this game vs San Fran would have been for all the marbles in the NFC West.  These two met on November 11th with the Niners going off as a 6 point favorite in that game and Seattle winning 27-24 in OT.  Now the Niners are laying more than a FG on the road?  We understand Seattle’s cluster injuries at the RB spot but bringing in Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, 2 players who know the system and the plays, we’re guessing their running game will be fine on Sunday.  Not to mention they will be facing a SF defense that has been trending downward for over a month now allowing 46, 29, and 31 points the last 3 weeks alone.  Seattle had some key defensive players sitting out last week with injuries but it looks like many will return this week including DE Clowney and LB Griffin.  This is the first time Seattle has been a home dog this year.  For comparison’s sake the Seahawks were -5 here vs New Orleans and -3 vs Baltimore.  That puts this number into perspective.  The Seahawks have been a huge money maker as a home underdog going 13-2 ATS in that role since 2011.  They’ve also owned this NFC West series winning 13 of the last 15 games vs the 49ers (12-3 ATS) with SF’s only wins during that stretch coming by 2 points and 3 points in OT.  We’ll take the points.