10* Toronto (4:00 ET): These two provincial (Ontario) rivals play the final game of the Week 1 CFL slate. Thus far, every game this season has been close w/ last night's 30-27 win by Edmonton at BC being the largest margin of victory by any team this year. That right there leads to automatic consideration of the underdog for this one, especially w/ the dog being at home. The Argos are off a very disappointing 2016 where they went both 5-13 straight up and against the spread. But they did manage to beat the rival Ti-Cats here at BMO Field, 33-21 as a 6.5-point dog. That win and cover happened to snap an 8-game ATS losing streak in the rivalry and I believe there's more to come and the rivalry starts to shift the Argos' way. Take the way. 

As you might expect, a last place finish brought a lot of changes for Toronto this year. There's a new GM, Jim Popp, who for two decades was the architect over in Montreal. He brought over a familiar name to be head coach, that being Marc Trestman, who won a Grey Cup for the Als, not to mention coached in the NFL w/ the Chicago Bears. Trestman should work well w/ veteran QB Ricky Ray, who enters 2017 w/ the fourth most passing yards in the history of the CFL. Furthermore, the Argos were able to reach out to Montreal for another key addition, this one coming on the defensive side of the ball. Shockingly, the 2016 Most Outstanding Defensive Player in the East Division, Bear Woods, was released by the Als. Toronto wasted little time in picking him up and that should lead to immediate dividends on that side of the ball. 

Hamilton has a veteran pivot (QB) of its own, Henry Burris, but it's the Ti-Cats' defense that I'm worried about entering the season. Two key members of what was supposed to be an outstanding secondary - Emanuel Davis and Abdul Kanneh - are both starting the year on the injured list. Look for the experience Ray to exploit those absences. Not only that, but three former Ti-Cats defenders now line up for the Argos. 10* Toronto

6* NY Yankees (2:05 ET): After outlasting the Rangers 2-1 (in 10 innings) in Friday's opener, the Yankees were thoroughly dominated Sat afternoon in an 8-1 loss. I made the mistake of taking the team wearing pinstripes yday, but I'm "doubling down" here. Mainly because the starting pitching matchup is heavily slanted in their favor. Needless to say this looks like the biggest mismatch on the mound on the entire Sunday slate. Texas is forced to go w/ Nick Martinez, who despite a 6-4 team start record, grades out as potentially the weakest starter in any rotation in all of baseball. The Yankees will counter w/ Michael Pineda, who has been outstanding all season here at Yankee Stadium. Even after Saturday's loss, the Yanks are still outscoring visitors by a full 2.0 rpg here in the Bronx. I'm anticipating a blowout today as the Bronx Bombers should get back on track offensively. 

Admittedly, Martinez is off B2B quality outings. He allowed only one run and two hits in 6 1/3 IP vs. Toronto his last time out. But that came after allowing a total of 5 HR's his previous two starts. A 4.58 ERA and 1.246 WHIP indicate that Martinez should feel somewhat fortunate to have a winning team start record. He's been particularly bad on the road w/ a 5.27 ERA and 1.464 WHIP. Yes, the Yankees' bats have been silent so far in this series, but they average 6.2 runs per game at home for the year. Might a matchup w/ Martinez be what awakens the offense? I think so. Also, the Rangers' bullpen has some really ugly numbers outside of Arlington as well, namely a 6.05 ERA and 1.700 WHIP.

Meanwhile, Pineda has thrived here at Yankee Stadium as is evident by a 6-1 record in eight starts to go along w/ a 1.92 ERA and 0.948 WHIP. Yes, he's struggled in the past vs. the Rangers and the team is just 2-9 its L11 games overall. However, let us not be quick to forget that this is still one of the best teams in all of baseball as their YTD run differential is +96, which is second best in the American League. Texas is an interesting case study as LY they won 95 games, but outscored opponents by only eight runs. This year, the record is just .500, but they're +28 in run differential! I earmarked them early for regression this season and like the oddsmakers I don't like their chances - at all - today. 6* NY Yankees

8* Under Orioles/Rays (1:10 ET): Baltimore has been playing some pretty ugly baseball of late. In fact, prior to yday, they'd gone 6-14 over a 20-game stretch that saw them allow 5+ runs in EVERY game! Doing so actually tied a MLB record, originally set by the 1924 Phillies. But getting a quality start from Dylan Bundy + a strong showing at the plate enabled the O's to beat the Rays 8-3 yday. Tampa Bay is no stranger to high scoring games itself having gone Over in each of the last five games. They scored 15 runs in Friday's opener and things certainly look good for them today as they face the struggling Chris Tillman. But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see this game end up lower-scoring than anticipated as the O's pitching almost "has" to improve based solely on the "law of averages."

What a difference a year makes for Tillman. I've previously written about him fairly extensively. If you're "new to the party," note that I'm not the least bit surprised that he's regressed badly here in 2017. Last season saw him finish near the top of the leaderboard in net units (+13.7 units), but a 3.78 ERA and 1.282 WHIP indicated that he was fortunate to do so. However, the regression that's taken hold here has been even more severe than even the harshest cynic could have anticipated. Tillman comes into today sporting an 8.40 ERA (highest in American League) and 2.168 WHIP in nine starts (3-6 TSR). There's no sugarcoating as to how atrocious he's been recently as the L3 starts have produced a 16.04 ERA and 3.096 WHIP, almost unconscionable numbers. One could reasonably conclude then that things almost HAVE to get better. If Tillman does have one thing going for him here it's that he pitched very well in his two starts in this park last year. In 13 2/3 innings of work, he allowed just one run on six hits. 

Tampa Bay starter Jake Odorizzi has had his own problems this year, namely giving up the long ball. Entering today, he's allowed at least one HR in 10 consecutive starts, one shy of the franchise record. Baltimore's lineup certainly is capable of delivering some power, but again, don't be surprised to see improvement from the starter here. In seven home starts this year, Odorizzi has a 1.030 WHIP and his overall ERA would look a lot better were it not for being victimized by some unearned runs. In fact, since his very first start of the year, Odorizzi has allowed more than three earned runs only ONE time! He hasn't faced Baltimore since September of last year when he allowed just one run on five hits in 6 IP. 8* Under Orioles/Rays

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): Coming into this three-game series, the Indians had mostly dominated the Twins this season, going 8-2 head to head. A four-game sweep in Minnesota last weekend actually led me to take the Twins in Friday's opener due to the revenge angle. They won in shutout fashion, 5-0. Then came an absolute stunner Saturday as the Twins won again, this time as massive +245 money line underdogs (higher at some shops!) against Corey Kluber. Breaking down this AL Central race (which is basically just these two teams), I continue to be a bit confounded by how both the Tribe and Twins have been so much better on the road than at home this season. Minnesota is just 16-25 at Target Field while 22-9 on the road. It's a similar story for Cleveland, who is 15-19 here at Progressive Field, but 24-15 on the road. I'll call for that trend to come to a temporary halt today, however, as the Indians should be able to avoid the sweep. 

Looking at run differential, there can be no denying that Cleveland is the superior team here. They've outscored opponents by 49 runs this year (3rd best in the A.L.) while Minnesota has actually been outscored by 42 runs (3rd worst in A.L.). Note that despite the losing record here at home, Cleveland has still outscored visitors here at Progressive Field (4.7 to 4.2 rpg). Yes, the Twins do have their best pitcher (Ervin Santana) going today, but he's coming off B2B poor outings where he's allowed a total of 11 runs (4 HR's) on 19 hits in just 10 IP. He's also not fared too well here in Cleveland throughout his career, going 6-11 w/ a 4.00 ERA. I'm not sure how long he's going to be able to keep this surprise season of his up. 

The visitor is now 11-1 in Twins-Indians games this season, which is difficult to explain. Last night, Minnesota scored twice in the first inning, but then not again until the eighth and ninth, which was ultimately the difference in a 4-2 victory. The Indians outhit the Twins in the game 8-5, so there was definitely some "cluster luck" for the visitors there. Something else to consider when handicapping this game is that it's in the daytime and that favors Cleveland, who is 18-9 in day games compared to just 14-20 for Minnesota. Indians' starter Josh Tomlin is admittedly a bit of a question mark, but the last time he faced the Twins (was here at home and against Santana), he went eight innings and allowed just one run (on a solo HR) in what was one of his best outings of 2017 so far. 8* Cleveland