10* Over Grizzlies/Mavericks (7:35 ET): While the trends are firmly on the side of the Under here, I’m looking to “buck” convention as two of the hottest teams in the league should find a way to go Over here. Yes, Dallas has gone Under in seven straight games, the last five of which have been here at home. That brings the O/U record for the year to 17-5 Under at home, which is pretty crazy. All three previous Grizzlies-Mavs meetings this year have gone Under. But expect this one to go differently. 

The last time these teams met was earlier this month and the Mavs surprisingly ran away with a 112-85 road win. That’s just one of two games that Memphis has lost since Christmas. Part of the reason the Grizzlies lost is because they shot just 38.2% from the floor, including 22% from behind the arc. They actually led 55-50 at the half but were held to only 30 points over the final two quarters! Even though it ended up being a blowout victory, even Dallas didn’t shoot well from three in that game. The two teams combined to go 15 of 63 from behind the arc!

Expect much more precise three-point shooting in this one. Memphis is a team that averages 112.1 PPG and they just scored 122 in their last game, despite being without their second and third leading scorers. Ja Morant went for 38. Dallas is off a disappointing 109-101 loss to Phoenix where they scored only 19 points in the 4Q. Luka Doncic expects to play Sunday after leaving the last game with a neck injury. That’s key. 10* Over Grizzlies/Mavericks

8* St. Louis (2:00 ET): This is an immediate rematch from a game played on Thursday, which UMass (surprisingly) won 91-88. The Minutemen were three-point underdogs for that one, at home, but now must head to St. Louis where they’ve won just once in their last 10 tries. The Minutemen are also 1-7 SU away from home this season, including 0-4 in “true” road games. The likelihood of them matching their shooting from Thursday’s game is not likely here. St. Louis is holding visiting teams to 38.2% shooting this year. 

From the Billikens’ perspective, what made Thursday’s loss so disappointing is that they got a season-high 23 points from Gibson Jimerson as well as a career-best 20 points from Fred Thatch Jr. Of the two teams, St. Louis is far more likely to match Thursday’s offensive effort. I say that because UMass has been just dreadful at the defensive end all season. The Minutemen are allowing over 80 PPG on 50.2% shooting in conference play. All five A-10 opponents have scored at least 77 against them. 

My power ratings suggest a double digit spread here, so there’s value on the home team. UMass had lost six of seven, including all four conference games, prior to the upset on Thursday. St. Louis has covered the spread off each of its last three losses, all those games coming at home. While just 11-6 SU on the year, the Billikens could have a much better record. Five of their six losses have been by six points or less. Look for them to get their revenge with an emphatic win on Sunday. Lay the points. 8* St. Louis

7* Barcelona (3:00 ET): It’s a “must-have” three points for Barcelona on Sunday. The perennial La Liga heavyweight is coming off two straight losses, one in the Supercopa (3-2 to Real Madrid) and the other in the Copa del Rey (3-2 to Athletic Club). Both results were decided in AET. If there is a “silver lining,” it’s that Barca can now turn its full focus to league play and finishing in the top four. They are currently tied for 6th place with 32 points, only one back of the top four (with Atletico’s Saturday result still pending). 

Facing a bottom of the table side like Alaves should make for an easy evening. Despite a managerial change just prior to the new year, Alaves is winless in its last three fixtures and has picked up just two points from its last five. This leaves them perilously close to the foot of the table, in 19th, and three points adrift of safety. While a win would obviously be huge here for Alaves, there’s really no indication they are capable of even sharing the points in this spot. They are tied for the most losses in La Liga (12) and have scored the fewest number of goals in the league (16). After finishing 16th each of the last two seasons, it looks like it will be a struggle for Alaves to avoid relegation in 2022. 

Only Real Madrid and Sevilla, the top two sides in La Liga, have fewer losses than Barca’s four this season. One does have to go all the way back to January 2nd to find the last time they picked up a league win (1-0 over Mallorca), but they’ve only played one since (a 1-1 draw with Getafe). Before a run of more challenging fixtures (Atletico, Espanyol) on the domestic front and the Europa League resuming in February, it is imperative that the favorites get the full three here. That shouldn’t be hard against an Alaves side that has scored one goal or fewer in seven of its last eight fixtures. The one exception was a 5-2 loss. 7* Barcelona

8* Under Bills/Chiefs (6:30 ET): The Bills offense played nearly perfect football vs. New England in the Wild Card Round. Against a top five defense (#2 in scoring), they scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end in a kneel down. Before backup QB Mitchell Trubisky came in for “kneel down duty” at the end of the game, Buffalo had 480 total yards on 51 plays. I really respect this offense, but repeating last week’s performance will be impossible.

Kansas City dominated in the Wild Card Round as well. Don’t be fooled by them allowing 21 points either. One of Pittsburgh’s touchdowns was from the defense. In the first half, the Steelers’ offense never crossed midfield and had just 40 yards on 26 plays (excluding kneel down). That was reminiscent of the stretch in the regular season when the Chiefs allowed 17 points or less in six straight games. At home this season, they are allowing just 17.9 PPG. The Chiefs will NOT keep the Bills in check like they did the Steelers, but I do see KC’s six-game Over run coming to an end here.

These teams met in the regular season, here at Arrowhead, with the Bills winning 38-20. That included a defensive touchdown by the Bills. Take that away and the game would have stayed Under. Note the Chiefs only scored 20 points. Buffalo has the league’s top scoring defense at 17.0 PPG allowed and even on the road they allow only 17.5.  This game will be lower-scoring than expected. I know that it seems risky, but take the Under. 8* Under Bills/Chiefs 

8* Under Rams/Buccaneers (3:00 ET): So these teams met in the regular season. The Rams won 34-24, but that was at home. It was a turnover free game (for both sides) where the Rams - at one point - scored on six consecutive drives. The Bucs didn’t exactly have problems moving the football either, but they missed a field goal and turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter. For a variety of reasons, I don’t see the rematch being nearly as high scoring. Take the Under.

The Rams were 34-11 winners over Arizona in the Wild Card Round. That included a defensive TD (thanks to an atrocious decision by Kyler Murray), which pretty much put the game away. While Matt Stafford getting his first career playoff win grabbed the headlines, don’t discount what the Rams’ defense did to the Cardinals. They held them to just 183 total yards (just 3.4 yards per play), most of that coming when the game was already well in hand. Holding Tom Brady and company in check like that might seem unrealistic. But the Rams’ defense has now had seven straight games of holding opponents to 24 points or less in regulation. That was the number they held TB to back in Week 3.

The Bucs were 31-15 winners on Wild Card Weekend, easily dispatching of the Eagles. But while the final result was never in doubt, take note that TB was actually outgained on a per play basis. Some of that has to do with all of the points and most of the yards allowed by the defense coming in the 4Q. Going into the fourth, Philly was scoreless and had less than 200 total yards. But still, Brady and the offense gained just 4.5 yards per play and clearly benefited from a muffed punt that led to a touchdown. 8* Under Rams/Buccaneers

9* Over Wolfsburg/RB Leipzig (9:30 AM ET): Coming off a 2-0 win last week over Stuttgart (my Game of the Week in the Bundesliga), Leipzig FINALLY has to feel like they’re ready to start moving up the table. That was their first away win of the campaign last week, so that’s a giant monkey off the back. But they are still just 7th in the table and in need of another win to (potentially) find themselves level with fourth place Hoffenheim. The fact Leipzig has a +13 YTD GD indicates that they will be a top four side by season’s end (they are already third in xPts), but don’t be surprised if they concede a goal (or two) on Sunday. 

Even as someone who had them, I had to admit Leipzig was lucky to keep a clean sheet last week as Stuttgart had numerous scoring chances that they failed to convert. A desperate Wolfsburg side comes to the Red Bull Arena this week and you can bet if given the opportunity, they will put a few in the net. Wolfsburg’s actual goal total of 17 is way off their expected goal total of 27.07. In Europe’s “Big 4” leagues, only La Liga’s Athletic Club has a larger discrepancy. What that tells me is Wolfsburg is due a few goals in the upcoming fixtures.

Incredibly, Wolfsburg has not scored in any of their last three encounters. They are coming off a 0-0 draw with Hertha Berlin, which extended their winless run to 10 straight across all competitions, which goes back to November and includes a Champions League exit. Given their xG total and how Leipzig was lucky to keep a “clean sheet” last week, I’ve just got to think that Wolfsburg is due to score here. If they do, then the Over is all but assured as Leipzig has put up eight goals in three matches since returning from the Winter Break. 9* Over Wolfsburg/RB Leipzig

10* Ciryl Gane (11:25 ET): The main event of UFC 270 is scheduled for five rounds and is for the Heavyweight Title. Champion Francis Ngannou comes in with a 16-3 career record, including 11-2 in the UFC. He won the title last March from Stipe Miocic via second round KO but has yet to defend it (more on that in a moment). Gane, a former training partner of Ngannou now turned foe, is a perfect 10-0 in his career including seven wins here in the UFC. 

It’s pretty well understood here that Gane is the better technical fighter, but he obviously must be able to withstand/avoid Ngannou’s knockout power. I believe he can. Thus far in his UFC career, Gane has proven himself able to win based on strategy and technique rather than overwhelming power. That said, he did stop Derrick Lewis in August to become interim champion. He’s also grinded out a couple of five-round unanimous decisions over Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. So I’m confident in his ability to go the distance to take the title, if needed. 

The interesting subplot in this fight is that Ngannou’s contract is set to expire afterwards, win or lose. So this could be his last fight for the UFC. He’s obviously been at odds with Dana White for some time now. But if Ngannou retains, then the promotion is basically “stuck” with him for another year. White is probably “rooting” for Gane here and while that doesn’t have any actual bearing on the outcome, I believe we’re due to see a new Heavyweight Champion on this evening. Gane has certainly seen his odds increase leading up to the fight. 10* Ciryl Gane

10* Buffalo (6:30 ET): The Bills looked pretty “Super” to me in destroying New England 47-17 last week, so - as underdogs - I’m making them my 10* Game of the Year this Sunday at Kansas City. Yes, the Chiefs looked pretty strong in their own right in the Wild Card Round. But that was against a subpar Steelers team that had no business even being in the playoff field. Let us not forget how the Bills came to Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season (Week 5) and really beat the Chiefs up, then walking away 38-20 winners. 

The Patriots team that the Bills destroyed last week were #3 in the league in regular season point differential. So that was a much more impressive win than what KC did vs. Pittsburgh. Really, I haven’t seen many more impressive performances than what the Bills turned in last Saturday. They scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end with a kneel down at the end of a half. This against a top five regular season defense. Prior to backup QB Mitchell Trubisky coming in for “mop-up duty” (three kneel downs), the Bills’ offense gained 480 total yards on just 51 total plays. 

Let’s talk about the Bills’ defense for a moment. It allowed the fewest points during the regular season, resulting in the league’s point differential. Another area where the Bills are #1 in the NFL in yards per play differential. So this is going to be a big step up in class for the Chiefs, who have a bit of a misleading 7-3 SU record vs. fellow playoff teams (including last week). Four of those seven wins were against the Raiders and Steelers, the two worst playoff teams. They also beat Philadelphia early in the season (Week 3) and Green Bay w/o Aaron Rodgers. Buffalo should have had a better record, but was 0-5 in one-score games. The Bills are my #1 rated team in the power rankings and should win here. Take the points. 10* Buffalo