10* Under Giants/D’backs (9:40 ET): The Giants, who finished the regular season with the best record in baseball in 2021, have really been stumbling of late. They’ve lost 11 of 14 and five in a row to fall out of Wild Card position in the National League. I’m not totally shocked by the regression, given that they had zero chance of matching LY’s historically profitable campaign (+45.8 units!). While I’m not confident enough to take the Giants today, one bit of good news for them is that I don’t think there’s any chance that Arizona scores eight runs again like they did yesterday. Take the Under in this NL West matchup.

The Diamondbacks are hitting a collective .218 this season, so yesterday’s outbreak at the plate was definitely rare. Now it was the fifth time in seven games they scored at least seven runs, but note that three of those were played at Coors Field in Denver. I think regression at the plate is coming even as the D’backs are set to face Alex Wood, who has struggled a bit recently. But Wood did allow just three runs in his last start (which ended up a 3-2 loss) and he is 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 24 previous appearances vs. Arizona. 

Meanwhile, the Giants aren’t doing much hitting at all lately. The team batting average over the last seven games is just .195 and they’re averaging less than three runs per game. Now, a matchup with Tyler Gilbert seems tantalizing, but consider all of Gilbert’s previous starts have come on the road. We’ve got two lefties here, in a division matchup, and that’s a situation that historically lends itself to an Under. This total seems too high. 10* Under Giants/D’backs

9* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): The Rays were shut out in yesterday’s opener, 4-0. They now trail the Red Sox by two games in the AL East but would still be the third in the final Wild Card team for the American League. In fact, all three Wild Cards would be AL East teams were the playoffs to start today. Tampa Bay had won three in a row prior to Monday, all in Toronto, while scoring 24 runs. So I see them bouncing back from yesterday’s disappointing performance at the plate. They’ve got a MUCH stronger starter scheduled to go as well. 

Finishing yesterday’s game with just two hits, both singles, had to be extremely frustrating for the Rays considering Boston basically went with an opener (Austin Davis) as Alex Cora had to be scratched due to what was termed a “dead arm.” Again, as I said above, the Rays didn’t have any problems scoring in Toronto over the weekend. Today they do have to face Nick Pivetta, who is 8-1 with a 1.95 ERA in his L11 starts. But Pivetta’s KW ratio isn’t all that great and he has allowed a homer in B2B starts. I’m not convinced he can keep it going. 

Pitching has generally NOT been a problem for the Rays this season as their staff entered yday with the fourth lowest ERA in all of MLB. But it didn’t work out yesterday, even with opener Jalen Beeks tossing two scoreless innings. The recently recalled Josh Fleming came in and allowed three runs and eight hits. I like the Rays’ chances better today with Jeffrey Springs starting as he has an 8-2 TSR and the team is 5-0 his L5 starts. Springs hasn’t gone since June 24th, when he beat Pittsburgh, as he was dealing with a family medical emergency. So he should be fresh and come out strong on the hill this evening. 9* Tampa Bay

9* Chi Cubs (8:10 ET): The Cubs thought they were going to steal one on the Fourth of July when Seiya Suzuki hit a go-ahead, inside the park HR in the top of the ninth. Alas, it was not to be. The Cubs’ bullpen could not hold that one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth and then Milwaukee walked-off in the 10th with a Victor Caratini three-run HR. Look for the road team to get its revenge in this division matchup on Tuesday, however. The Brewers had only five hits yesterday and were very lucky to win that game. 

The Brew Crew lead the NL Central, but it’s worth noting that their run differential (+40) is inferior to that of the second place Cardinals (+62). Do I still think Milwaukee is a playoff team? Probably. But it’s actually been two straight games with just five hits each and it’s hard to keep winning that way. The Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks will be making his fourth start against them this season, so he knows this lineup well and should pitch effectively. Hendricks has won his last two starts, giving up only two runs in 13 ⅓ IP.

Prior to losing each of the L2 days in extra innings, the Cubs had won four in a row. I expect that at some point they will move past Pittsburgh into third place in the division. There’s obviously a big gap between the top two and bottom three teams in the Central, but not so much in today’s matchup where the Brewers will have rookie Jason Alexander starting. Opponents are batting .328 off Alexander and he has a 1.642 WHIP. His first career start came against the Cubs (back on 6/1) and the Brewers lost that game (to Hendricks). 9* Chi Cubs

7* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Guardians were swept in Monday’s doubleheader, which is really embarrassing when you consider who they were up against. The Tigers are not good, and should absolutely be ranked among the bottom six teams in all of baseball. They’ve been outscored by almost 100 runs in 79 games, one of the worst differentials in the game. They have played a bit better recently, winning 6 of 10, but a win streak of three games or more is something that’s happened for them only twice all season. Time to fade. 

What made yesterday’s sweep all the more remarkable is the fact the Tigers started two recent call-ups from Triple A. This is a team that’s used 14 different starters in the rotation this year. Drew Hutchinson, who has split time between Toledo (Triple-A club) and Detroit will make his third start at the big league level today. He has a 5.19 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in his previous two outings. Neither time saw him go a full five innings and he has more walks than strikeouts. It is hard for me to believe that Cleveland would lose to - essentially - three straight minor league starters. 

Cal Quantrill goes for the Guardians Tuesday and he’s coming off an outstanding outing where he went eight innings and allowed only three runs. It was his fourth quality start in the last six trips to the mound. Quantrill has a 2.76 ERA in five previous starts vs. Detroit, so it’s a clear edge on the mound for the Guardians. The Tigers also remain the lowest scoring team in the majors (just 3.0 rpg!) and are 29th (next to last) in both slugging and on base percentage. 7* Cleveland

8* Over Mariners/Padres (4:10 ET): The Mariners showed up ready to rock on Monday, surprising me with an 8-2 win here in San Diego, who was a heavy favorite at home. After today, this brief series will be over. It’s certainly tempting to try with the Padres again as they look to avenge yesterday’s loss, but it’s also hard to overlook the fact they are just 2-7 over the last nine games. I think taking the Over is the “safer bet” here as both of Tuesday’s starters are likely to regress as the season moves forward. 

No pitching staff has a lower ERA than the Mariners’ 2.81 over the L37 games. Logan Gilbert, who is on the mound today, has certainly played a role in that with a top seven ERA in the American League, not to mention he’s holding opponents to a .227 batting average and has a 1.12 WHIP. But there are signs of regression such as a 4.09 xERA and a relatively high hard hit rate. San Diego hits righties a lot better than they do lefties and I think this is actually a pretty favorable matchup for a lineup that’s been underperforming of late. The Over is 5-0 the past five times the Padres have faced the Mariners. 

Mike Clevinger is still undefeated this year for the Padres. The team has gone 6-0 when he starts and his ERA & WHIP are even lower than Gilbert’s. But I also see regression forthcoming for Clevinger as he doesn’t strike out a ton of batter and there’s been only one time (his last start) where he made it through six innings. The Mariners’ lineup is really good at drawing walks, so they should get plenty of runners on base against Clevinger here. Once upon a time, we would have to be concerned about the M’s losing the DH from the lineup in this matchup. That’s not the case anymore. 8* Over Mariners/Padres