7* Borussia Monchengladbach (12:30 ET): These are two mid-table sides in the Bundesliga with Gladbach hosting Stuttgart. Both teams have a -1 goal differential. But the hosts are two points ahead based on the fact they have three wins and only one draw whereas Stuttgart has two wins and two draws. Both have three losses. The picture I’ve painted (thus far) may not point to Gladbach having any kind of huge advantage Saturday, but the oddsmakers sure think they do and I’m inclined to agree with their assessment.

After a slow start to the season, Gladbach has seemingly “turned the proverbial corner” by winning three of its last four fixtures. Right before the International Break, they downed Wolfsburg by a score of 3-1, which was perhaps their most impressive win to date. Or maybe it was the 1-0 win over Dortmund the week prior. Either way, Gladbach has conceded only three times in the last four matches and in terms of goals scored, I expect them to pick up the pace moving forward.

Stuttgart also won its last Bundesliga fixture 3-1 as they beat Hoffenheim. But before that it was a poor run of form for VFB as they’d picked just two points from five matches. That run included a bad 4-0 loss to Leipzig and perhaps equally embarrassing 0-0 draw with Bochum (who is 2nd from the bottom). During the Int’l Break, Stuttgart played a friendly with second tier side Sandhausen and shockingly lost 4-1. So that’s not going to do wonders for their confidence as they hit the road, where they’ve yet to win this season. Look for the home team to get all three points in this one. 7* Borussia Monchengladbach

10* Bruno Silva (6:15 ET): This is the headline fight on the prelims, which air on ESPN+. It’s a Middleweight fight (185 lbs) scheduled for three rounds. Silva is 20-6 overall and won his only UFC fight while Andrew Sanchez comes in 12-6 overall and 5-4 in the UFC. I think the talented prospect Silva continues his rise up the MW ladder and gets his hand raised Saturday evening.

Silva comes into Fight Night 195 on a five-fight win streak. All five wins have been by TKO/KO, four of them coming in the first round. His UFC debut was delayed due to failing a drug test, but finally Silva got to step inside the Octagon in June and he made quick work of Wellington Turman. Silva actually found himself on the ground early in that fight, but only for a short time and I attribute that to it being his first fight in nearly three years. Don’t expect him to be taken down at all in this fight. 

I say that because Sanchez is someone who is willing to stand and trade shots, whether it’s working in his favor or not. It is highly unlikely that such an approach will pay off here. Last August, it was his turn to stop Turman in the first round. But that was Sanchez’s first KO victory in almost eight years! He followed that up by losing to a flying knee against Makhmud Muradov in January. That was Sanchez’s second loss in his last three fights and fourth in his last seven. He’s tailor-made for another quick Silva win. 10* Bruno Silva

10* New Mexico (7:00 ET): Few teams got off to a worse start in 2021 than Colorado State did. The Rams lost outright (42-23!) to FCS South Dakota State in their first game. Then they lost again as favorites (at home to Vanderbilt) the following week. The season then took a drastic turn with a 22-6 upset of Toledo on the road. CSU’s only TD in that game came on a punt return. They surprisingly stayed close in Iowa City (led at the half) and then last week came what was easily their best game, a 32-14 win over San Jose State. But even that one comes with the “asterisk” of being +3 in turnover differential.

Now taking New Mexico here, even with the points, does require a “leap of faith''. The Lobos are one of only two 0-6 ATS teams in the country. They’re losing by an average of 12.3 PPG and are near the bottom of the FBS in scoring. But they’ve also faced some pretty good teams on the road, like Texas A&M and San Diego State. They also hosted Air Force, who is 5-1 SU. Considering where Colorado State was a month ago, this is precisely the “drop in class” (in terms of the opponent) that they need in Albuquerque right now. 

The home team will also be highly motivated come Saturday night. Not just to end their four-game losing streak in 2021, but also to end a 10-game losing streak to CSU. This is what you need to know - every win New Mexico has had in the L3 seasons has come at Dreamstyle Stadium. Colorado State only averages 22.4 PPG and this is their first time favored on the road since they lost by 21 at Fresno State in LY’s opener. UNM is obviously due to cover and this is probably the most opportune time to take them all season. Take the points. 10* New Mexico

8* Under Western Kentucky/Old Dominion (3:30 ET): WKU is the only other team besides Pitt to have a perfect 5-0 Over record. My mindset should be pretty obvious with this totals report as I think these streaks are due to come to an end. The Hilltoppers, who have been involved in nothing but shootouts thus far, are off a heartbreaking 52-46 home loss to unbeaten UTSA last week. This week’s opponent, Old Dominion, is nowhere near as prolific as UTSA or most other previous WKU opponents. This should be the Hilltoppers’ best defensive performance since holding Tenn Martin to 21 points in the season opener. 

Or it could end up being even better than that! Old Dominion, like WKU, is off to poor start to the 2021 season. The Monarchs are 1-5 SU with the lone win coming against FCS Hampton. Take that win away and they’ve averaged only 19 PPG. They were held to just 13 points last week in Marshall, the third straight loss by seven points or less. That game ended up going to overtime. ODU led 10-6 with just under three minutes in regulation. Even with just 314 yards last week, it wasn’t even ODU’s worst effort in total offense this season as Liberty held them to 201 yards and UTEP held them to 282. This will be the highest total for any ODU game so far this season. 

I do not expect Western Kentucky to be able to run the ball at all in this game. The Hilltoppers come in averaging only 93 YPG on the ground at 3.9 YPC. On the road, those averages drop to 57 YPG on 2.5 YPC. It just so happens that Old Dominion has done a great job stopping the run at home, allowing only 2.7 yards per carry. The Monarchs have allowed only one opponent - Liberty - to gain 400 total yards. Four of their games have seen 54 or less total points scored while only one has exceeded 62 points. 8* Under Western Kentucky/Old Dominion

8* Under Pitt/Va Tech (3:30 ET): There has been a tremendous amount of upheaval in the ACC this season with preseason favorites like North Carolina, Miami and Clemson (!) all losing two or more times before we even hit the second weekend of October. The league has only two ranked teams, one of them undefeated Wake Forest (the other is NC State), but don’t discount a Pitt team that should be considered the favorite right now to win the Coastal Division. The Panthers are 4-1 (only loss to Western Michigan!) and averaging a FBS high 52.4 PPG. They are one of just two teams to be 5-0 Over entering the weekend. 

But this week, the Panthers should encounter some resistance as they head to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech. From a situational perspective, the spot looks great for the road team. They are off a bye while Va Tech is off a close loss to Notre Dame. But I definitely see Pitt’s lofty scoring average coming down over the next few weeks. Va Tech is giving up just 18.6 PPG on the year and every game except Notre Dame stayed Under the total. Until the final four minutes, they had held the Fighting Irish to just 21 points. Last week was the first Va Tech game this year to feature more than 50 total pts scored. 

Pitt has played some terrible teams like UMass and New Hampshire. They scored 77 against the latter, which is a big reason why their season average is so high. This total is right in line with the oddsmakers’ projections for all of the Panthers’ previous games, so the market sees no reason to react to the shocking amount of scoring we’ve seen thus far from Pat Narduzzi’s team. The Under is 4-0 in their last four trips to Blacksburg and I’m not sure either team gets to 30 points in this one. 8* Under Pitt/Va Tech

8* Over Purdue/Iowa (3:30 ET): There’s only one team left that has yet to go Over in a single game this season and that’s Purdue (5-0 Under), who is coming off a bye and will have its toughest game yet this weekend as they visit Iowa City to face the unbeaten Hawkeyes. Iowa is having a dream season thus far. Fueled by a +15 turnover differential (#1 in the country), they are 6-0 SU and ranked #2 in the polls. They are off a spirited, come from behind win over Penn State (in what was a matchup of two top five teams). With them in a bit of a letdown spot, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hawkeyes give up more points than usual this week. 

Purdue had no problem scoring in their first two games. They opened with a 30-21 win over Oregon State, then a 49-0 beatdown of hideous UConn. But since that time, the Boilermakers have been held to just 13 points in three consecutive games. One of those was a win, at home vs. Illinois, but they lost to both Notre Dame and Minnesota. The totals keep getting lower each week and now I think we’re at the point where there’s a great value in bucking their Under trend. The Boilermakers did put up 448 yards in their last game, so scoring only 13 points was a major disappointment. Inefficiency in the red zone really cost them. 

The Boilermakers’ offense is healthier than it’s been at any point this season and a QB change was made prior to the Minnesota game. Aiden O’Connell (357 yards vs. Minnesota) looked a lot better than the inconsistent Jack Plummer. Purdue will need to be firing on all cylinders against the Iowa defense and I do believe they’ll score a surprising number of points here. They beat Iowa last year 24-20 in West Lafayette. The Hawkeyes have scored at least 23 in every game this season, so if Purdue gets to 20 (and I think they can!), then this will be an easy Over. Iowa’s L2 games both did go Over the total. 8* Over Purdue/Iowa

10* Texas (12:00 ET): They say “everything is bigger” down in Texas and in the case of my top Big XII selection for the 2021 College Football season, that is certainly the case. Obviously, the Longhorns really let one “slip away” last week in the Red River Rivalry. They led Oklahoma 28-7 after 1Q, 38-20 at half and 41-30 after the 3Q. They lost 55-48. As an added “kick in the teeth,” they didn’t even cover the pointspread. Despite that being their second loss of the season, I still believe the Longhorns can be a Top 10 team by season’s end. Love them this week as my power ratings say this should be a double digit spread!

It’s another unbeaten team from the state of Oklahoma that UT is facing this week. This time it’s Oklahoma State, who is 5-0 SU and coming off a bye. In all due respect to Mike Gundy’s team, they are no Oklahoma. The Cowboys have lived dangerously the first month of the season, winning every game by 11 points or less and three of those wins were by a total of 13 points. They trailed in three of the five wins, barely outgained a FCS team and were down entering the 4Q vs. Tulsa. They were down double digits to Boise State in their only previous road game.

That last sentence brings me to another difference between this and last week for Texas - this game takes place in Austin where they are a perfect 3-0 ATS in 2021. Also, just to reiterate the drop in class when it comes to the opposition, I (like everyone else) consider Oklahoma a top six team in the country. The pollsters may have OK State at #12 entering this week, but they don’t even make my Top 35! It speaks volumes that the unranked team is favored here. A few weeks ago, when discussing Va Tech-WVU, I talked about how well unranked favorites tend to do ATS when hosting Top 25 opponents. Lay the points here as OK State’s unbeaten run will come to an end. 10* Texas

8* Missouri (12:00 ET): Well, this is certainly the ultimate “letdown” spot for A&M isn’t it? Last week, I called it a “great buy low spot” on the Aggies, who were coming off B2B losses (after previously winning 11 in a row) and getting a ton of points at home. Well, wouldn’t you know they went out and pulled the biggest upset of the College Football season, beating top-ranked Alabama 41-38. It’s now a completely different situation this week as Jimbo Fisher’s team must guard against overconfidence as they hit the road to face Missouri, a conference opponent they haven’t faced in awhile. Gotta fade this week. 

Both of these schools moved from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2012. They faced off in 2013 & ‘14 w/ Mizzou winning both games. Going back to their Big 12 days, the Tigers have won five of the previous six matchups! This is A&M’s first trip to Columbia since that initial SEC meeting in 2013. Now when the Aggies arrive they may find a fanbase that’s bordering on destitution. That’s because Mizzou has not covered a single spread in 2021 and is on an 0-8 ATS run dating back to last season. That’s the longest active ATS losing streak in the country. 

Why would I be interested in taking the Tigers then? Well, in addition to this being the ultimate letdown spot for A&M and Mizzou being “just plain due,” this is the most points the Tigers have gotten in any game this season and the first time they are a home dog. Two of their losses have been by seven points (one in OT at Boston College). They led by 27 in the 4Q LW at home vs. North Texas and should have covered that game (were -18.5). I bought low on A&M last week, now it’s time to “sell high” on them and buy low on the opposition. Take the points. 8* Missouri