8* Niagara (9:00 ET): Despite the reputation of having a strong homecourt advantage (due to the hight altitude in Laramie), I had no problem fading Wyoming in their season opener. They lost - outright - as six-point favorites to UC Santa Barbara, 76-66. The Cowboys followed that up w/ another loss, at Oregon State, in their next game. They finally won for the first time on Wednesday, 86-78 over Grambling, but did not cover as 12-pt chalk. So their ATS record is now 0-3 as they return home to face Niagara. While the Purple Eagles may not be as formidable as UCSB, they can still cover the spread here, if not pull the outright upset. They've already pulled one upset, 80-72 over St. Bonaventure, though that one was at home. Take the points. 

The follow up to that upset wasn't as good for Niagara as they went down 75-62 at the hands of Loyola IL. But they still covered that game as 16.5-pt dogs. Remember that Loyola-IL was a Final Four team last March! Amazingly, the Purple Eagles stayed inside the number despite shooting less than 30% for the game! I have to imagine they'll be more productive on the offensive end tonight and a huge key to this game could be free throw shooting. Niagara shot 17 of 19 from the FT line in their last game and is 48th in FTA rate. Wyoming is 288th in opponents FTA rate. I also look for the underdog to have the rebounding edge in this battle. They are 32nd in the country so far, pulling down 38.9 boards per game. Wyoming is allowing 39.1 rpg, which ranks 303rd nationally. 

I just don't think this Wyoming team is very good this year. In my analysis for Opening Night against UCSB, I cited the fact the Pokes lost four of their top five scorers from a year ago and they project as a terrible defensive team also. Right now, the team simply can't shoot. Through the first three games, they are at just 40% overall from the field, including a dreadful 27.6% from behind the arc. That's trouble for a team that was 317th in the country in points allowed last season. So far, all three Wyoming opponents have scored at least 76 points. Giving up that many points makes it hard to cover as a favorite and it's right in line w/ what they gave up last year as well (78.7 PPG allowed). 8* Niagara

10* Over Nets/Wizards (7:05 ET): We saw just how much Brooklyn is going to miss leading scorer Caris LaVert (out indefinitely) in their 120-107 loss to Miami on Tuesday. For a second straight game, the team struggled to shoot (40.2 FG%) and reserve Spencer Dinwiddie actually ended up being their leading scorer w/ 18 points in 29 minutes. However, defense has been the bigger concern for the Nets lately as they've allowed three straight teams to shoot 52.4% or better from the floor and given up 116, 120 and 120 points. I see the struggles on that end of the floor continuing tonight against a Washington side that has averaged 117.3 PPG during a three-game win streak. Take the Over in this one. 

The Wizards started the season out very poorly by losing 9 of their first 11 games. But they've rebounded over the six days to go 3-0, including what was - easily - their best performance to date on Wednesday. Granted, it was against lowly Cleveland (who was in a back to back), but they won by 24. Thanks to a 41-point 1st quarter, the Wiz never trailed. Getting 29 points off 24 Cavaliers turnovers certainly helped as did making 13 of 40 three-point attempts. If there is one area where I expect Washington to regress though, it's defensively. Cleveland's 95 points tied a season-low for a Wizards' opponent and it can't be understated just how undermanned the Cavs were in the second night of a back to back (off a rare win no less). 

Though Wednesday marked Washington's highest scoring half of the season (73 points), they didn't receive much from John Wall, who finished the game w/ a season-low eight points in 21 minutes. He was just 3 of 10 shooting. I would expect Wall to play better tonight and thus we won't see much dropoff from the Wizards offensively. The key here is can Brooklyn find scoring options w/o LaVert? Considering Washington isn't very good defensively (26th in efficiency), they should have their chances. Six Nets players did finish in double figures in the loss to Miami. Brooklyn is 24th in defensive efficiency, so this very much could turn into an "up and down" type game. 10* Over Nets/Wizards

8* North Dakota State (2:00 ET): I do believe that the wrong team may be favored here in a 1st round matchup of the Bahamas Showcase. Miami OH might be off a 91-42 win, but it was against an overmatched opponent (Midway) w/ extreme shooting percentages. We won't be seeing the RedHawks shoot 56% again in this game nor will we see the hold the opposition to just 26%. Note that in the RedHawks' first game, they lost 90-68 at Butler with the shooting percentages basically flipped. 

Here they face a North Dakota State team off an impressive 82-63 win over Cal Santa Barbara. They held the Gauchos to just 37% shooting. That was a nice bounce back after losing out in Las Cruces (New Mex St) in the season opener. The Bison really struggled to shoot the ball in that first game, but were much better offensively on Sunday. After taking a 15-13 lead midway through the first half, they would never trail again. 

An interesting bit of handicapping here - Miami has not played in a true bracketed regular season tournament in a decade. So this format may not favor them. They are just 2-9 ATS their L11 neutral site games and don't have a ton of depth. Like I said at the outset, I think the Bison are the better team here, so I'll take the points. 8* North Dakota State

8* SMU (9:00 ET) - SMU was a tremendous winner for me two weeks ago. As 14-point underdogs, they WON by two touchdowns, beating a red-hot Houston team 45-31. At the time, the Mustangs were just 3-5 SU overall, but I wrote that they were improving and am not about to back off that assessment. Last Saturday's win wasn't nearly as impressive as they failed to cover against UConn despite scoring 62 points. But then again, it was the 1st time all year that the Ponies were favored to beat a FBS opponent. This week, they're back in their more customary role of underdog and looking to gain a "leg up" in what is currently a three-way tie atop the West Division of the American Conference. I like them plus the points and also give them an excellent shot at pulling another outright upset. 

Memphis is 3-3 SU in conference play and thus NOT one of the three teams atop the division (Tulane and Houston are). The Tigers still have a chance to win the West, but a ton of things would have to go their way. Many consider them to be the best team in the division, though I would still give a slight nod to Houston (who Memphis hosts next Friday). The Tigers should have probably beaten undefeated UCF earlier in the year, but instead ended up blowing a double-digit lead in the Liberty Bowl. It's one of two 1-pt losses they've taken this year. Memphis did win the division LY (lost to UCF in 2 OT's in the Conf Champ Game) and comes into this week having scored 100 pts the L2 wks. But SMU has done the same, making this too many points to lay for the Tigers.

I think homefield matters a lot here. Memphis is just 1-3 SU on the road w/ the lone victory coming two weeks ago against East Carolina (who has zero conference wins), but that was a close game until the very end. Earlier in the year, the Tigers dropped a game (as two-touchdown chalk) at Tulane. I think the biggest reason for this large spread is that Memphis has beaten SMU four straight times, by an average of 41 PPG! But this SMU team is a lot better than years' past. Not only are they playing for a division crown here, but they still need one more win for bowl eligibility. Their offense is averaging 38.5 PPG since junior QB Ben Hicks became the permanent starter. That makes this number extremely attractive at home. 8* SMU