ASAwins NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 vs. L.A. Clippers, 7pm ET - This is a very favorable scheduling spot for the Sixers who have had 2 days of rest and now face a Clippers team playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back. The Clippers lost a hard-fought game in Boston yesterday 118-121 and are now just 2-8 SU in their last ten games with 5 of those L’s coming by more than 6-points. We love the fact that Philly is rested, but also coming off a loss in their most recent game in Detroit 105-114. The 76ers continue to be undervalued by the oddsmakers as witnessed by their 8-1-1 ATS record in their last 10 games. Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in six home games this season, the two losses are respectable coming against Detroit and Boston and 3 of the four wins have come by more than tonight’s spread. The Clippers are 1-4 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -10ppg. In each team's last ten games the Clippers have a negative net rating of -7.4, the Sixers have a positive net rating of +2.9 which is a great indicator of where these teams currently stand. This game have blowout written all over it.

ASAwins NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -3.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 7:40pm ET - The Mavs continue to struggle at 3-10 SU on the season with 3 straight losses on their home court. Portland got off to a hot start to the season but have since cooled to 6-6 SU on the year. A great recent barometer of this line is the Blazers were just favored at New Orleans by -8 points just a few games ago and now laying a significantly lower number on this game. Dallas was home dogs to the Clippers by 3 and the Suns by 2 which tells us this line is about right. The Mavs' struggles start with an offense that ranks last in the league in Offensive Efficiency, scoring just 1.045-points per possession. They don’t shoot it well with an eFG% of 50.6% (27th) and make just 10.2 3-pointers per game (30th). The other big factor in this game is turnovers. Dallas averages 17.1 TO’s per game - 3rd most. Portland turns teams over 17.5 times per game - 3rd most. The Blazers are also top half of the league in OeFF at 1.172PPP while making 13.9 3-pointers per game (11th most). We will lay the short number with the road chalk here.

#472 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Browns +9 -120 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Baltimore is now being talked about as one of the best teams in the NFL with Lamar Jackson back under center. We don’t see it. We think they are overvalued right now. They are 2-0 since Jackson came back beating Miami and Minnesota. Their win over Miami (28-6) final was misleading as they yardage was about dead even. Both teams pushed inside their opponents 25 yard line 4 times and Miami came away with 6 points while Baltimore scored 28 points. Last week they topped Minnesota 27-19 but they were outgained 6.0 YPP to just 4.9 YPP in that win but the Vikes had 3 turnovers (0 for Ravens). Jackson was banged up in that game and missed some practice time this week with a knee injury. He’s going to play but will he be effective on the ground vs Cleveland high level defense? We don’t think he’s back to 100% as he’s only rushed for 50 total yards in his last 2 games and just 3.5 YPC. The Browns defense has been lights out at home this season. They have allowed 197 YPG on 3.5 YPP and just 11 PPG at home this season. This total is set at 39 so a low scoring game is expected which makes it tougher to cover a game by more than a TD. Cleveland is 2-2 at home this year, including a win over Green Bay, and their 2 losses have come by 1 and 4 points. They are averaging 20 PPG at home and we don’t think they’ll need to get to that number to cover this game. The Ravens rolled the Browns 41-17 in their first meeting this season in Baltimore but look at the stats…Ravens 242 total yards / Browns 323 total yards. Cleveland averaged 5.2 YPC on the ground in that game and held Baltimore to 2.1 YPC. The Browns have won 3 of the last 4 at home vs the Ravens and we’ll say this one will be very close.

#705 ASA PLAY ON Houston -6.5 over Auburn, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Both teams are 3-0 having faced weak competition but Auburn is in full start from scratch mode. They lost all 5 starters from last year’s team and only return 1 key member off that team. Houston, on the other hand, played for the National Championship last year, lost by 2 points vs Florida, and they bring back 3 upperclassmen starters from that team. The Cougars have started right where they left off defensively ranking #1 in defensive efficiency last year and so far this season. They’ve held their 3 opponents to 57, 48, and 45 points. Their most recent win was over Oakland, a top 200 team and the Grizzlies veteran head coach Greg Kampe raved about this Houston defense after the game. His Oakland team scored 78 and 77 points their first 2 games vs Purdue (top 5 team) and Michigan (top 15 team) but were only able to score 45 vs Houston. This Auburn team, with a sophomore and 2 freshmen in the starting lineup, will have trouble with Houston’s physical nature on defense. The Cougs have better efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball and they have the experience factor as well. On top of that, they have a Hall of Fame coach in Kelvin Sampson facing an Auburn team with Bruce Pearl’s son Steven now running the show in his first year as a head coach. While this game is in Alabama, it’s not at Auburn’s home court (game in Birmingham). We’ll lay it with Houston.

#457 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Granted, the Steelers are at home in this Division showdown, but they aren’t in the best schedule having played in L.A. late Sunday night. Cincinnati on the other hand is coming off a much-needed bye week. The Steelers are a pretender our opinion and it’s starting to show with their 1-3 SU record in their last four games. In fact, Pittsburgh should be 0-4 in that stretch as the Colts gifted them a win two weeks ago with 6 TO’s and several empty red zone trips. The Steelers offense is literally one of the worst in the NFL ranking 29th in total yards per game, 24th in YPP, 30th in rushing and 23rd in passing yards per game. The Steelers last 3 games have been tough to watch with a 4.7YPP average and 247 total YPG. Pittsburgh should have some success moving the ball against this porous Bengals defense, but will it be enough to cover this number. We know Cincinnati will move the ball and put up points in this game against a Steelers D that is allowing 376 yards passing (28th) at 5.7 YPP. In the meeting earlier this season the Bengals completely outplayed the Steelers with +88 total yards, 8 more FD’s and a 9-minute TOP edge. Six of the last seven meetings between these two teams has been one score games and this one is shaping up to be decided by a FG either way.

#462 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Bears have been one of the most fortunate teams in the NFL this year. Their record is 6-3 yet they have a negative point differential (-8) and they are getting outgained by 0.5 YPP with their defense allowing 6.6 YPP (30th in the NFL) and on the road they are allowing an NFL worst 7.0 YPP. That defense also ranks 29th in YPC allowed (rushing) and 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed. So how are they 3 games above .500? Turnover margin. They rank #1 in the NFL at +14 turnover differential and the team in 2nd in that very key stat is only +8. Teams that win the turnover margin in a game win 75+% of the time so there’s your answer on why Chicago has a good record. In their 6 wins the Bears have a turnover differential of +17 which is ridiculous. The concerning part, a few of those wins vs poor teams (Bengals, Raiders, Commanders, and Giants) have all gone to the wire despite Chicago having a big turnover edge. Their other 2 wins are vs the Saints and Cowboys so not really a bunch of wins vs good teams. In fact not one team they’ve beaten currently has even a .500 record. The only 2 teams with a pulse that Chicago has played on the road was Detroit (lost by 31) and Baltimore (lost by 14 and Lamar Jackson was out). The Vikings are off a home loss vs Baltimore but they outplayed the Ravens rather drastically in the stat sheet (6.0 YPP to 4.9 YPP). Let’s not forget that a week earlier this Vikings team went to Detroit and beat the Lions on the road. Minnesota’s record is 4-5 and this becomes a huge home game for them if they want to have a shot at the playoffs as they are @ Green Bay and @ Seattle the next 2 weeks. Despite their record, they have a positive YPP differential unlike Chicago and they’ve dominated the Bears winning 8 of the last 9 meetings. We like Minnesota to win this one by more than a FG.

#393 ASA PLAY ON TCU +4 over BYU, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET - We successfully played against BYU last week and will double-down this Saturday with a wager on TCU. This is a perfect fade spot on the Cougars who are off their first loss of the season, which historically has a negative carryover affect the following week. Part of our handicap last week was obviously in support of BYU being overrated at this point of the season. TCU is 6-3 but in only one of those losses where they outplayed and they could legitimately be 8-1 here. We like the fact that the Frogs are coming off a misleading loss last week to Iowa State. Against the Cyclones, the Horned Frogs had 30 FD’s to 15, 452 total yards compared to 272, but essentially lost when ISU returned a punt for a TD late. On the subject of Iowa State, both teams have faced the Cyclones with TCU a -7.5-point home favorite, BYU was +2.5 at ISU. Both teams have also squared off with West Virginia. BYU was laying 20.5 points at home, TCU was just favored by -16.5 points at WV. BYU averages 6.2 yards per play (37th), TCU ranks 33rd at 6.1YPP. BYU allows 4.9YPP (27th), TCU gives up 5.2YPP (55th) so very similar statistics against comparable schedules. The betting indicators clearly favor TCU here with public bettors flocking to the Cougars off their loss, yet the line has moved significantly in favor of TCU. We will grab the points and won’t be shocked with the outright win.

#416 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -7.5 over Louisiana Tech, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Really rough spot here for La Tech. The blew a game they had in the bag @ Delaware and now they travel to the West Coast to take on Washington State who is coming off bye. LT led the Blue Hens last week by 10 points with under 1:00 minute remaining the game and lost. Delaware scored 10 points in the final 40 seconds to win. To make matters worse, the Bulldogs lost their starting QB Baker in that loss and he is done for the season. Having to travel home from Delaware after a devastating loss (almost 2,500 miles round trip) and then heading to Pullman, Washington (4,300 miles round trip) is a tough ask. The Cougars had 2 weeks to stew over their 10-7 loss @ Oregon State, a game in which they outgained the Beavers by nearly 100 yards. This team is 4-5 right now and they need 2 more wins for bowl eligibility so this is a huge home game for them. Wazzu is 3-1 at home this year with their only loss coming vs Washington. They have wins here vs San Diego State by 23 (best team the Mountain West) and Toledo by 21 (best team in the MAC). They also took Ole Miss and Virginia to the wire on the road this year losing by 3 and 2 points respectively. Those 2 teams are fighting to make their Conference Championship games and have a combined record of 17-3. La Tech is 1-3 on the road this year with their only win coming @ UTEP, one of the worst teams in the country. On the road this year the Bulldogs are only averaging 256 YPG and allowing 360 YPG. Washington State has played the much tougher schedule (56th SOS to 128th) and this one sets up perfectly. We like Wazzu by double digits.

#660 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska Omaha -9 over Southern Utah, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Omaha is in an early must win type spot here at home as they’ve started the season 0-3. All 3 of those games have been away from home and they had tight losses vs Murray State and Abilene Christian, both solid teams, and a blowout loss @ Colorado State (top 65 team) in their most recent game. Now they’ve had a full week off and finally get to play a home game. This UNO team is rated as one of the top 4 teams in the Summit League. They won the conference tourney last year and made it to the Big Dance. They finished with a 22-13 record and they have 4 of their top 7 players back from that team. The Mavericks were 11-2 at home last season and 22-5 the last 2 years. Southern Utah lost pretty much everyone from last year’s team including their 5 starters. They have only 2 players back who played minimal roles a season ago. The are rated outside the top 300 and currently sit as the lowest rated team in the WAC. The Thunderbirds rank outside the top 300 in both eFG% offense and defense. Their 3 point D has been horrendous this year 49% from deep while their offense makes less than 24% of their triples. They are 1-2 with 2 double digit losses and their only win was vs Bethesda. They have been poor on the road winning only 6 of their last 31. SUU also has a game @ Gonzaga in 2 days (on Monday) so they might be a bit distracted here. Lay it with Nebraska Omaha.

#348 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +7 over Penn State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - These teams stand 3-6 SU with basically nothing to play for. The difference is, the Spartans weren’t expected to be good this year and are in a rebuild mode. Penn State on the other hand was one of the favorites to win the National Championship prior to the start of the season. We are betting the Lions are flat in this game after their demoralizing loss last week to Indiana. Not only are they coming off that loss, they faced Ohio State and Iowa in previous games which had to have taken an emotional toll. Last Saturday PSU led Indiana and was about to pull off a massive upset, then IU scored with :36 seconds left in the game for the W. Sparty played well last two weeks ago in Minnesota a 20-23 loss but MSU put up 467 total yards at 6.8YPP, while holding Minnesota to 301yds 4.9YPP. Michigan State got a bump in that game offensively with QB Milivojevic making his first career start and going 20/28 for 311 passing yards. If you take a closer look at each teams overall offensive and defensive numbers you will see many similarities: PSU total offense 110th at 335 total YPG, 97th YPP at 5.3, MSU 103rd total O at 347ypg at 5.4YPP. Spartans defense allows 371ypg, Penn State allows 326ypg. Given the circumstances, this line is higher than it should be and the value lies with the motivated home underdog.

#402 ASA PLAY ON USC -6.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line is too low in our opinion. For comparison’s sake, last week Oregon was laying the same number (-6.5) @ Iowa as USC is laying at home on Saturday. We were on the Ducks last weekend and didn’t get the cover as they won by 18-16 @ Iowa. The conditions were tough with high winds, rain and sleet which really helped Iowa in that situation. The conditions made it tough for the much better offensive team, Oregon, to pull away and make a poor Iowa offense chase. Despite the tight final score, the Ducks outgained the Hawkeyes by 134 yards and put up 261 yards rushing to just 101 for Iowa. If the weather wasn’t bad in that game, we have no doubt Oregon wins by more than a TD. This is a rough spot for the Hawkeyes as they went all in on that game last week and lost on a last second FG. Now they travel to the west coast for the first time this year to face a USC team that is 5-0 at home with every win coming by at least 14 points. Last week the Trojans were impressive easily handling a surging Northwestern team that had won 4 of their previous 5 games including a win @ Penn State when the Nittany Lions still had starting QB Allar healthy. USC rolled the Cats 38-17 putting up almost 500 total yards to just 280 for NW. The Trojans also beat a very good Michigan team handily here by 18 points outgained the Wolverines by 174 yards while rushing for 224 yards on 6.2 YPC. This USC team is undervalued right now, especially at home. They have a huge edge offensively in this game averaging nearly 200 YPG more than Iowa and they put up 2.6 more YPP than the Hawks. Iowa hasn’t been on the road since they faced Wisconsin on October 11th. They’ve played 3 straight home games since then. Their league road schedule has been very weak facing Wisconsin and Rutgers and that’s it. Their game at Rutgers was a 10 point win, however the Scarlet Knights put up over 400 total yards outgained Iowa but the Hawkeyes had a kick return for a TD. USC is 4-1 ATS at home this season and they’ve covered 9 of 11 here since the start of last year. Looks like some rain in LA on Saturday but temps in the 60’s and winds around 10 MPH so not terrible. We’ll call for another here as USC wins this by 10+.

#704 ASA PLAY ON South Dakota -7 over Southern Indiana, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota is 1-2 on the season with their losses coming in OT vs Utah Tech and @ Creighton where they played well losing by 16 as a 26 point dog. The Coyotes have some continuity returning this year with 4 regulars (3 starters this year) that played key roles last season. Southern Indiana sits at 0=2 and has all transfers in their starting line up and only 1 player that played here last year in their top 8. It’s going to take some time them to figure out how to play together. These 2 faced off last season @ Southern Indiana and South Dakota was a 2.5 point road favorite in that one and lost outright. We were on SIU in that game as South Dakota was coming off an upset win @ Western Michigan just a few days earlier and the set up to take Southern was solid. We’re now getting the Coyotes at home, where they were 14-2 last season, laying only a few points more than they did on the road last season. The Screaming Eagles are 0-1 on the road this year and have been a terrible road team going 5-27 SU away from home since the start of the 2023 season. It’s early in the season but South Dakota has been the much better shooting team to date hitting almost 47% of their shots compared to 33% for Southern Indiana (344th nationally). The Screaming Eagles are also averaging less than 1.00 point per possession so far this season. Let’s take South Dakota at home on Wednesday night.

#308 ASA PLAY ON Miami OH +4 over Toledo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Toledo has been a terrible road team this season with an 0-4 SU mark including 2 losses as double digit favorites. The Rockets have had a tendency to lose games outright when laying points. In fact, Toledo has lost 18 times outright as a favorite since 2021 and 12 of those losses have come as a favorite of a TD or more. They can’t be trusted laying points on the road as they are 3-14 ATS in that situation dating back to the start of the 2022 season. As you might expect, the Rockets road numbers are WAY off their home numbers. Take a look at this…Toledo averages 44.3 PPG at home and 14.8 PPG on the road. They average 512 YPG (on 7.9 YPP) at home and 334 YPG (4.6 YPP) on the road. And it’s not as if they’ve played a much tougher slate away from home compared to at home with 3 of their 4 road opponents currently have a losing record and the only one with a winning record (Western Michigan) is 5-4. Miami OH is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming vs UNLV (who is currently 7-2) in a game the Redhawks led by 14 points in the 4th quarter and blew it. They are 29-5 SU at home their last 34 games. At home Miami is averaging 36 PPG (just 16 PPG on the road) and 419 YPG at home (301 on the road). Nice value here with Miami coming off a tight 24-20 road loss @ Ohio while Toledo destroyed Northern Illinois at home. The Rockets have never beaten Miami Oh by more than 4 on the road and we don’t think they will here. The Redhawks are absolutely live to pull this upset at home.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -7 vs. Golden State Warriors - 8PM ET - Golden State just played in Denver last week and was +9.5 points and now they are catching a smaller number at OKC? The Thunder are rated as the best team in the NBA with an eDIFF (Efficiency Differential) of +13.2, Denver is 2nd at +13.1. Golden State ranks 13th in eDIFF and they’ve played a weaker schedule than the Thunder. The Thunder are 4-0 SU at home with a +14.4ppg average margin of victory. Since the start of last season, including the playoffs, the Thunder are 50-8 SU at home with a plus +16.2ppg average differential. THAT INCLUDES THE PLAYOFFS against the other best teams in the NBA. Golden State has a very respectable 28-26 SU road record going back to the start of last year, but are 1-5 SU away from home this season with the only win coming at LA against the Lakers. The Warriors five road losses have come by 5-points or more, three of those L’s came by double digits. We will take the Champs on their home court and expect a 10+ point win in this one.

#632 ASA PLAY ON North Dakota State -1.5 over Cal State Northridge (CSUN), Tuesday at 8 PM ET - CSUN is in a bad situational spot here playing their 3rd road game in 6 days. They played @ Northern Iowa last Thursday (lost by 29 points), then played @ North Dakota on Sunday (won by 8) and now @ North Dakota State tonight. CSUN is 2-1 on the season and probably ready to get back home to California after being gone for a full week (left last Wednesday). The Matadors are coming off a 93-85 win @ North Dakota Sunday which wasn’t overly impressive. UND is ranked as the worst team in the Summit League, basically tied with UMKC (per KenPom) and the 324th best team in the country. The Fighting Hawks were just 12-21 last season and only won 5 Summit League games. Now CSUN, just 48 hours later, faces one of the top teams in the Summit (NDSU rated 3rd best team in the league) and the Bison will be hungry for a win after starting the season 0-2 losing @ Oregon State by 2 and @ UC Davis by 12. This will be their first home game of the season and unlike CSUN, they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this one. After 2 games, the Bison are shooting just 15% from beyond the arc and we’d expect them to shoot much better at home tonight. This team led the NATION in 3 point shooting last year hitting 40% of their triples so positive regression is likely tonight. NDSU should get plenty of extra possessions on Tuesday as CSUN has been a turnover machine this year coughing it up on over 24% of their possessions while the Bison create turnovers on 22% of their defensive possessions. NDSU, on the other hand, has done a nice job of taking care of the ball with just a 14% turnover rate. They should also control the boards as they rank in the top 70 in both offensive and defensive rebounding while CSUN is outside the top 300 in both of those this season. We like the hungry Bison to get this win at home.

#746 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -1.5 over St Thomas, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - St Thomas is in a really tough situational spot here. They played on the West Coast @ St Mary’s last Monday (lost by 26), then played at home vs a bad Army team (ranked 340th per KenPom) and won by just 7, and now 48 hours later they are back on the West Coast to take on Washington State. The Cougars are in must win mode here after dropping their first 2 games vs Idaho and Davidson. In their home opener vs Idaho, Wazzu was a -7.5 point favorite and now just 1 week later they are laying under 2 (current line -1.5) vs a St Thomas team that is similarly rated to Idaho. In that 83-81 loss, the Cougs shot just 6 of 28 from deep (21%) while Idaho made nearly 40% of their triples and the game still went to the wire. In 2 games, Wazzu is just 12 of 49 from deep and we would expect some positive regression here, especially at home. Just prior to the regular season, the Cougars faced a solid New Mexico team (95th per KenPom) in a scrimmage and knocked off the Lobos which tells us they just might be better than they’ve played in the first 2 games and they are most likely undervalued here laying a short number here. The Tommies were walloped on the West Coast in their opener vs St Mary’s and then struggled to put away Army at home. They shot 50% in that game and made 7 more FT’s and still only won by 7. The spot heavily favors Washington State and we’ll take the Cougs on Monday night.

#274 ASA PLAY ON LA Chargers -2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Steelers at 5-3 continue to be one of the league's biggest mysteries or frauds depending on how you look at them. There is no way the Steelers should have beaten the Colts last week 27-20. Indianapolis had 6 turnovers in the game and gave Pittsburgh that win. The Steelers managed just 225 total yards on 58 plays for a 3.9 yards per play average. Short fields largely contributed to their 27 points. Prior to last week the Steelers were outplayed by Green Bay who is underperforming and lost to a bad Bengals team. The Chargers are coming off a close win in Tennessee last week but the final score isn’t a true portrayal of how that game played out. L.A. was +11 in first downs, had a +9 minute time of possession advantage, averaged 5.8YPP while allowing just 206 total yards to the Titans. Pittsburgh in 28th in total yards per game, 22nd in YPP at 5.4, can’t run with an offense ranking 30th in rushing and throw it for 200ypg (21st). The Chargers average the 5th most total yards per game at 374 on 6.0YPP (10th), rush for 124ypg and throw it for 250ypg. The Steel Curtain isn’t showing up Sunday to save this Pittsburgh defense either. The Steelers allow the 30th most total yards per game, rank 25th in YPP given up and allow an average of 24.4ppg. The Chargers defense is significantly better than Pittsburgh’s allowing the 6th fewest yards per game, 11th lowest YPP average (5.4) and give up an average of 21.4ppg which is 12th fewest. The Chargers with Herbert outshined Aaron Rodgers in his return to California.

#264 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Nice spot for the Bucs coming off a bye giving them time to rest and get healthy. They still have a few players out (WR Godwin & RB Irving) but their offensive line looks healthy for the most part and their defense will only be missing 1 starter. Tampa has only played 3 home games to date and they’ve won 2 of those with their only loss coming vs the Eagles in a game the Bucs outgained Philly 376 to 200 total yards. While the Bucs were able to rest up and prepare for this game, the Patriots will be playing their 10th straight week and while they have a 7-2 record, they’ve faced, by far, the easiest schedule in the NFL. 4 of their 7 wins have come against Miami, Cleveland, New Orleans, and Tennessee who all rank 26th or lower in NFL DVOA with the last 3 listed ranking as the 3 worst teams in the NFL. They are coming off a home game where they held on to beat a 3-5 Atlanta team 24-23 in a game where the Falcons outgained them on a YPP basis. Not only will this be New England’s 10th straight week of playing games, it will also be their 4th road game in the last 6 weeks. The Pats will be without 2 of their best offensive weapons in this game with starting RB Stevenson and WR Boutte (5 TD receptions leads the team) both out. This one could come down to which high level QB, Maye or Mayfield, has the better day. Tampa has the better pass rush (both sacks per game & sack percentage) and they have better numbers in opponent completion percentage, opponent QBR, and opponent yards per pass attempt. The Pats defense has struggled on the road allowing 6.3 YPP despite facing the Saints, Titans, and the Dolphins in 3 of their 4 road games. Tampa’s D has allowed just 4.7 YPP at home this season. We like the situation here and expect TB to win by more than a FG.

#260 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans +1.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - No way the Jags should be favored in this game in our opinion. We realize that Houston will be going with Davis Mills at QB here, but we’re not talking about a inexperienced rookie back up or anything like that. Mills has over 6,000 career passing yards and has thrown for 35 TD’s. He’ll be fine here. He wasn’t great last weekend but he had to come in cold off the bench and face one of the best defenses in the NFL (Denver). Now he gets a week in practice with reps and a game plan set for him and facing a much weaker defense vs Jacksonville (22nd total D and 20th in YPP allowed). There are 3 average type units on the field in this game and one elite unit, the Houston defense. They’ll be by far the best unit on the field and facing a Jags offense that just hasn’t been very good as of late. They did score 30 points last week (7 in OT) beating the Raiders but only averaged 4.8 YPP. In fact, in their last 3 games they’ve averaged 4.8, 4.0, and 4.8 YPP and scored 12 points or less in 2 of those games. Not good. In their first meeting this year, the Jags came away with a 17-10 win at home despite getting outgained on a YPP basis. Houston had 3 turnovers (all inside the Jacksonville 35 yard line) and missed a FG in that tight loss. The Jaguars are a “false” 5-3 in our opinion as they have a negative YPP differential and they’ve been outscored on the season. They are currently 1 of just 3 teams in the NFL that have a winning record and a negative point differential (Bears and Panthers are the other 2). They’ve actually been outgained in 4 of their 5 wins this season (YPP differential) but heavily benefited from turnovers in their wins (+7 turnover margin in their 5 wins). This one is do or die for Houston who has a 3-5 record and has games vs Chiefs, Bills, and Colts in the next month. Take the points with the Texans.

#660 ASA PLAY ON Bradley -9.5 over Central Michigan, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Bradley is off a tight 69-63 loss vs a good St Bonaventure that is projected to be one of the top teams in the Atlantic 10 this year and finished 22-12 last season. That game was on a neutral court in South Carolina and now the Braves are back at home where they were 13-3 last season and 41-7 since the start of the 2022 season. The Braves finished 2nd in the Missouri Valley last season with a 28-9 overall record and they are projected as one of the top 3 teams in that league this year. CMU, on the other hand, is projected to be one of the worst teams in the MAC this year and the Chippewas have had only 1 winning season since 2018. However, CMU did win their season opener giving us some value on Bradley here. The Chippewas beat App State at home on Monday but they were fortunate as the Shot Quality stats had them losing that game by 6. CMU is projected as a bottom 4 team in the MAC and now we’re getting some value at home with one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley at home off a loss.

#173 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -6.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - A long time ago, as a general rule, we were told to never lay points on the road in the Big Ten. It still holds true in the big picture but there are obvious exceptions. Last season road favorites hit around 40% of the time but favorites under a TD performed better and those games were decided by an average margin of victory of +7.6ppg. Oregon has been especially good in the role as a road favorite with a 34-16 ATS since 2011, 15-0 S/U & 11-4 ATS under Lanning. In their last 15 as a road chalk, the Ducks have an average margin of victory of +25.1ppg. Iowa has a strong history as a home dog under Ferentz but the Hawkeyes have been home dogs just two times since the start of the 2022 season going 1-1 ATS with an average loss margin of minus -9.0ppg. The Hawks were +9.5 points at home earlier this season against Indiana, the Ducks were laying -7 versus the Hoosiers. IU wasn’t in a great scheduling situation at Iowa, coming off a huge win over Illinois. Oregon grades slightly below Indiana in our rankings and come into this game in a much better situation. The Ducks played miserable two weeks ago at home against Wisconsin, then had last week off to figure things out. Iowa has great defensive numbers but they are eerily similar to Oregon’s defense. The big difference comes offensively where the Ducks rate as one of the best in college football with 7.4YPP (4th), 484 total yards per game (14th) and 41ppg (5th). In comparison, Iowa ranks 122nd in total yards per game (317), 104th in YPP (5.1) and score 31ppg. We are on the Ducks in this one.

#179 ASA PLAY ON Kansas +5.5 over Arizona, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We aren’t fans of playing on Kansas in the role of a favorite but we do like them as dogs if the price is right. Arizona is overrated according to our rankings and a bigger favorite than they should be in this situation. One quick comparison is both teams' games against Oklahoma State where Kansas was favored by -24.5 points at home versus the Cowboys, UA was favored by 20.5 in the same situation. Kansas is averaging 6.1YPP on the season (46th) with a rushing offense averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 159 rushing yards per game. Arizona has similar offensive statistics at 6.1YPP, throw it better than KU but don’t run it as well at 150 rushing yards per game on the season. The Wildcats have better overall defensive numbers across the board than Kansas but the Jayhawks have faced a pair of top 30 offenses this season and overall tougher schedule. Arizona just hung 52 points on Colorado but were also +3 in TO’s and benefited from great field position and a few big plays. In their two games prior to last week, the Wildcats rush defense was gouged by BYU for 258 yards and Houston ran for 232. We like the Jayhawks rushing advantage and will bet a potential rush-doubling underdog in this one which produces an extremely high cover rate historically.

#166 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -10 over BYU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Biggest game so far this season in the Big 12. 8-0 BYU travels to 8-1 Texas Tech. The Red Raiders were dominant last week on the road vs a surging Kansas State team that was peaking. Tech won by 23 points and outgained KSU by over 100 yards. Their only loss this season came at Arizona State when the Sun Devils scored with just over 30 seconds left to win 26-22. Tech played that game without their starting QB. Every other game they’ve played they’ve won by at least 23 points. While BYU is undefeated, they haven’t looked great on the road. They nearly lost @ Colorado (won by 3) who is one of the worst Power 4 teams in the country. They won in OT @ Arizona after scoring 10 points in the final few minutes of regulation to push that game to an extra stanza. The Cougars most recent road game they got down by 2 TD’s vs a free falling Iowa State team and came back to win with the help of 4 ISU turnovers (0 for BYU) and they were outgained 495 to 410 in that win. BYU is 5-0 in Big 12 play yet their point differential is just +40. Compare that to Texas Tech who is 5-1 in league play and even with a loss, their point differential is nearly 100 points better than BYU (+134). These 2 teams have played similar strength of schedules, yet Tech’s stats are much better. The Raiders have a +221 YPG differential (BYU is +115) and their YPP differential is +2.6 (BYU is +1.6). Tech is top 10 nationally in both total offense and total defense while BYU ranks outside the top 25 in both. We like Texas Tech to win this by at least 2 TD’s.

#118 ASA PLAY ON Memphis -3.5 over Tulane, Friday a 9 PM ET - Tulane has been trending down over the last few weeks and we’re going to take advantage of this cheap line with Memphis at home. In their last 3 games Tulane beat ECU by 7 at home, beat Army by 7 at home, and then lost @ UTSA by 22. They are just 2-2 on the road this year with their wins coming @ Tulsa (2-6 record) and @ South Alabama (2-6 record). They only beat a bad South Alabama team by 2 points and they were outgained in that game. They have also had a bit of a distraction late in the season with head coach Sumrall getting overtures from a number of larger programs that have or will have a head coach opening. Memphis is 8-1 both SU & ATS this season and this team still has a shot at the playoffs. The Tigers are 4-0 at home including a win over SEC Arkansas and they’ve won 53 of their last 61 games here at home. If we compare these 2 stat wise Tulane has a YPG margin of just +6 while Memphis is outgaining their opponents by +84 YPG Scoring wise the Tigers are averaging 38 PPG and allowing just 19 PPG (39-19 average score at home) while the Green Wave are scoring 26 PPG and allowing 25 PPG (averaging 25 PPG and allowing 35 PPG on the road). The host should also have an advantage in the trenches as they are better running the ball (201 to 175 YPG rushing) and better stopping the run (128 to 158 YPG rushing allowed). These 2 met last season @ Tulane and Memphis won 34-24 and the Tigers were +80 total yards. This year Tulane is power rated lower than last year’s team and we have Memphis better than a year ago. We’ll lay this small number.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7:30pm ET - This is a short number with the road team so we’ll lay it with the Rockets in this “big State” rivalry. After opening the season with a pair of losses the Rockets have ripped off 5 straight wins, 3 of which were on the road. Houston currently has the best eDIFF (efficiency differential) in the at +13. They currently rank 1st in offensive efficiency, 6th defensively. The Spurs have some great numbers too including an eDIFF of +8.3, ranking 2nd in DEFF, 10th in OEFF. Houston has one of, if not the biggest starting lineup in the league and basically everyone can switch and still guard Wemby. The big advantage we like in Houson’s favor is their #1 ranked 3PT% of 42.7% going head-to-head with a Spurs defense that ranks 26th in 3PT% defense allowing 38.4% on the season. The young Spurs don’t shoot it nearly as well from deep ranking 15th in 3PT%, 15th. San Antonio has feasted on opponents by crashing the offensive glass but that won’t be an asset tonight against the 2nd best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. We like the vet Rockets to get it done Friday.

#712 ASA PLAY ON Kent State -5.5 over Cornell, Friday at 7 PM ET - Kent is off an OT loss here at home on Monday vs Troy. This now becomes an important game early in the season as they don’t want to lose back to back home games to start the season. The Golden Flashes are tough to beat at home where they were 34-10 SU the prior 3 years. In their loss they simply shot very poorly making only 38% of their shots while Troy was throwing everything in the ocean hitting 52% from the field. Even with that discrepancy, the game still went to OT. Look for the Kent defense to play much better tonight as they were very solid last year (83rd in defensive efficiency) under long time head coach Senderoff who has nine 20 win seasons as the head man here. It wasn’t a bad loss by any means as Troy was an NCAA tourney team last season, but a game if Kent shoots just OK they win. The Flashes had quality shots they just didn’t make them. In fact, the post game shot quality score for this game should have been 100-84 in favor of Kent. One positive is they had a very good rebounding game with 44 boards (+11 margin) and that should continue here vs a Cornell team that was a poor rebounding team last year. Kent returns 3 starters and picked up some big transfers from UNLV, Cincinnati, and Niagara and we expect them to be one of the top teams in the MAC again this year after finishing 24-12 last season. Cornell lost 3 key starters from last year’s team that combined to average over 40 PPG. This is their first game of the year and they are walking into a tough situation. We’ll lay this small number with Kent State.

#110 ASA PLAY ON Denver Broncos -9 over Las Vegas Raiders, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Tough spot here for the Raiders after losing 30-29 in OT on Sunday. A demoralizing loss that saw Jacksonville kick a FG with 16 seconds left in regulation to send it to OT, then the Jags scored a TD with just under 4:00 left in OT (their opening drive) leaving LV with a short clock needing a TD. They scored that TD but failed on the 2 point conversion for the tough loss. Now on the road on a short week where historically teams playing on Thursday night coming off an OT game on Sunday do very poorly (6-25 ATS overall and just 3-16 ATS when on the road). On top of that, the Raiders have been brutal on the road. Since their season opening win @ New England, they’ve lost their last 3 on the road by margins of 34, 31, and 17 points. They’ve scored a grand total of 6 points in their last 2 road games combined (@ Indy and @ KC) and now they face one of the top defensive teams in the NFL. Denver is 3rd in total defense and 1st in YPP allowed. They’ve held 5 opponents to 17 points or less and they’ve held the Raiders to less than 20 points in 4 of their last 5 meetings. Denver won both games last year by double digits averaging 31.5 PPG in those 2 wins. They should have success here again vs a LV defense who’s home vs road dichotomy is quite drastic. This defense allows just 295 YPG on 4.6 YPP at home compared to 372 YPG and 5.8 YPP on the road. The Raiders are allowing 21 PPG at home but 31 PPG on the road this season. The Broncos are averaging just over 31 PPG at home this season and should be able to put enough points on the board to win this one by 10+ as we expect the Raiders to struggle offensively. We’ll lay it.

#112 ASA PLAY ON South Florida -13.5 over UTSA, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Good spot here for a very good USF team coming off a tight loss @ Memphis 34-31. The Bulls led that game by 14 in the 4th quarter and the Tigers scored the final 17 points for the wins. USF put up 564 yards in that loss to 450 for Memphis. The Bulls also rolled up huge numbers on the ground, as they usually do, rushing for almost 300 yards in 7.8 YPC. They were shut out on downs twice inside Memphis territory (including inside the 5 yard line) and missed a FG otherwise they walk out of that game with a win. Now they’ve had 11 days to stew about that loss and get back home where they are 4-0 with an average score of 50-15 and an average YPP margin of +3.2! The Bulls only other loss this season was @ Miami FL They’ve had some very impressive wins including topping Florida on the road and beating a very good Boise State team 34-7. UTSA is coming off a home win as a dog beating Tulane a week ago on October 30th. Tulane gave the Roadrunners a boost with 4 turnovers (0 for UTSA) but they still put up 434 yards in the loss. UTSA has been a completely different away from home this year. They are 1-3 on the road with their only win coming @ Colorado State by a final of 17-16. CSU is now 2-6 on the season, they’ve fired their coach, and sit outside the top 110 in our power rankings. Not an impressive 1 point win for UTSA. The Roadrunners average 475 YPG and 48 PPG at home and just 338 YPG and 19 PPG on the road. As posted above, USF averages a ridiculous 50 PPG at home (on 508 YPG) so UTSA is going to have to put up big numbers to keep up here. These 2 have one common opponent so far this season. They both played at North Texas with UTSA losing 55-17 and getting outgained 584 to 329 total yards while USF beat UNT on the road 63-36 and outgained the Mean Green 580 to 443. We have the much better team, at home, in a very solid situation. We’ll lay it.

#101 ASA PLAY ON Miami OH +3 over Ohio, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Miami sits in first place in the MAC with a 4-0 mark and Ohio is 3-1 on conference play. These 2 met twice last year with Miami winning in the regular season by 10 points but getting rolled 38-3 in the MAC Championship game with the Bobcats winning as a 1 point dog. It gives the Redhawks huge motivation for this game as the 35 point margin was their worst MAC loss in their history! This is a program that is not used to losing period with a 51-22 SU record in MAC play since the start of the 2016 season. As an underdog, the Redhawks have been a big time money maker with a 15-6 ATS record (conference games) in that role since 2018. Ohio is very solid, but if we compare the numbers it definitely favors Miami OH. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedules on the season and Miami has a YPP differential of +1.0 and Ohio is dead even at +0.0. Defensively, Miami is much better allowing a full 1.0 YPP less than the Bobcats (4.9 YPP allowed by Miami and 5.9 by Ohio). The Ohio offense relies heavily on the run (20th nationally in rush attempts per game) and the Redhawk D is stout up front allowing just 123 YPG rushing on only 3.7 YPC. The Bobcats defense allows 154 YPG rushing and almost 5.0 YPC so advantage in the trenches to Miami. Our power ratings have Miami as a 2 point favorite on a neutral field so this line should be closer to pick-em in our mind. We’ll take Miami plus the points.

Champions League #224205 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arsenal Goal Line -1.5 Goals (-120) over Slavia Prague, Tuesday at 12:45 ET - Each club is missing some players entering this one but the impact is far more taxing on a Slavia Prague side that does not have the depth or talent level that this Arsenal club has!  The last time these clubs met here, in Europa League again a few years ago, the disparity between these clubs was very evident as Arsenal prevailed 4-0.  A similar result would not surprise us here.  Arsenal is on an incredible 7-game run in which they have not allowed a goal.  Overall Arsenal has won 9 games in a row and they have scored an average of 2 goals in those 9 victories.  Though the Slavia Prague defense has also been strong of late, they have not faced near the same level of competition.  Additionally, Slavia Prague is having major struggles at the offensive end of the pitch when facing tougher competition and that is certainly not good news for a team when facing the stifling defensive systems of Arsenal.  In fact, Slavia Prague has scored decently in 2 straight matches but against outclassed foes and one was in Cup (non-league) action.  Prior to this they had scored a total of just 1 goal across 5 matches as they were shutout 4 times in 5 games!  Arsenal is 3-0 in Champions League action and won the games by a combined score of 8 to 0.  Slavia Prague is winless in 3 Champions League matches and was outscored 5 to 2.  A very in-form Arsenal side is simply too much for the hosts in this one!  We look for another multi-goal victory for the road side (with a huge talent advantage) as they roll big Tuesday on enemy soil. We will lay 1.5 goals with the road team in this one.  

#934 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Tight loss for us here with this same selection in Game 6 but the Blue Jays did outhit the Dodgers 8-4 in a tough 3-1 loss. One key event that happened late when the Blue Jays were setting up a possible game-winning rally was that the Dodgers had to go with Tyler Glasnow to get the final 3 outs of the game. He was the Game 3 starter and was expected to start Game 7. Now, as a result of last night's action, Glasnow will not be starting here and it is expected to be Ohtani starting on short rest. Ohtani just pitched Tuesday so Saturday is sooner than normal for a starting pitcher. Also he did struggle some in that Game 4 outing and the Jays got the win. We expect them to do the same here and look for Max Scherzer to have a solid outing in his first home start of the post-season. He was only 2-4 on the road in the regular season but went 3-1 in his home starts and had a number of solid outings here in Toronto. Yesterday's loss was a tough one for us as it looked like it was going to end 3-2 at worst and we would have cashed our run line with a 1-run loss of course. We will get it back today in the final game of the season. Prior to yesterday's 3-1 LA win, the Dodgers last 12 games haf featured only 4 wins by more than a 1-run margin and 8 of the last 10 Blue Jays games had either been outright wins or a loss by just a 1-run margin! This one is all about the value! We are going with the +1.5 runs with the run line here in Game 7!

#354 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota -3.5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for the Gophers at home. They are coming off an embarrassing effort @ Iowa last Saturday losing 41-3 while putting up only 133 total yards. They had 3 turnovers and Iowa scored on a pick 6 and a punt return. The Minnesota defense, despite giving up 41 points (really 27 if you subtract the defensive and special teams TDs), the Hawkeyes had only 274 yards on 4.8 YPP. Now they come home to face MSU where they’ve been dramatically better with a 5-0 record (0-3 on the road). At home the Gophers are averaging 26 PPG compared to 7 PPG on the road. Total yardage per game at home is 351 (5.4 YPP) and just 210 (3.5 YPP) on the road. Defensively Minnesota is allowing just 16 PPG at home while giving up nearly 37 PPG on the road. They allow just 4.5 YPP at home and 6.0 YPP on the road. You get the point. They’ll be more than ready here at home as a win clinches bowl eligibility. MSU had their biggest game of the season last week at home vs rival Michigan. That was Sparty’s “all in” game and they lost by 11. It wasn’t that close as MSU scored a TD with under 10 seconds remaining to make the score look closer than it was. Offensively they only averaged 4.2 YPP and 75 of their 300 total yards came on the last “meaningless” drive. On the road they are getting outgained by over 100 YPG and by a full 2.0 YPP. Facing a top 20 Minnesota defense that allows 249 YPG and 4.3 YPP at home will be tough. The Spartans have lost all 3 of their road games by double digits and they are in a free fall overall losing 5 straight (all by double digits as well) by an average margin of -14 PPG. The rumblings out of East Lansing are that head coach Smith might be on his way out and that distraction along with losing in their biggest game of the season last week gives us MSU will be flat as a pancake vibes. We’ll take the motivated home team at this low spread.

#932 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Blue Jays were expected to get steamrolled in this series by most prognosticators.  However, not only are they not getting steamrolled, they just might win this thing!  Already, by virtue of winning Wednesday's critical Game 5 (and convincingly by the way), they have guaranteed they have up to two chances to win this thing in Toronto whether that is tonight or tomorrow night.  Actually we would not be surprised to see this scrappy Blue Jays team wrap up the series victory tonight but we are going to have the added insurance of the run line here.  Yamamoto is off B2B strong starts as he pitched complete games in which he allowed just 1 earned run in each including a great start versus Blue Jays in this series.  However, the way the Jays are playing with such confidence right now with B2B wins by a combined score of 12 to 3, we would not be surprised to see them get to Yamamoto in the rematch.  Gausman has allowed just 7 earned runs in his 4 post-season starts and LA has all the pressure in the world on them now.  As we mentioned above, most people had the Dodgers for a sweep or LA in 5 or maximum 6.  Now instead, Los Angeles is facing elimination in Game 6.  All the pressure is on LA and that makes this a great spot to back the Jays again!  The Dodgers last 12 games have featured only 4 wins by more than a 1-run margin!  8 of the last 10 Blue Jays games have either been outright wins or a loss by just a 1-run margin!  This one is all about the value!  We are going with the +1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#317 ASA PLAY ON North Carolina +2.5 over Syracuse, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Both have similar records with UNC at 2-5 SU and Cuse at 3-5 SU but these are definitely teams heading in opposite directions. The Orange started the season winning 3 of their first 4 games, but lost starting QB Angeli and have since lost 4 straight. Not only have they lost 4 in a row, they’ve been blown out in each losing all by at least 13 points. They were averaging 38 PPG with Angeli under center but his replacement, Rickie Collins, has led this team to just 13 PPG. Collins had almost no experience with 7 pass attempts in his career prior to this season. Since taking over the starting job Collins has completed only 54% of his passes and has more interceptions than TD passes. He’ll be facing an UNC defense that is playing very well right now under defensive guru Bill Belichick. The Heels have allowed 21 (vs Cal) and 17 (vs Virginia) points in their last 2 games hold the explosive Cavs to 20 points below their average scoring output. The Heels held both of those offenses to less than 300 total yards including holding UVA to just 259 yards (they average 437 YPG). UNC lost both games but really should be on a 2 game winning streak. They lost those 2 games by a combined 4 points but outgained both teams but lost the turnover battle by a combined 6 to 1 in those losses. The fact that they played both games to the wire (both teams are better than Syracuse) with a -5 turnover margin was impressive. Carolina has the much better defense allowing 1.1 YPP less than Syracuse and while the Orange have the better overall offensive numbers, we think UNC is better on that side of the ball right now as well since the QB change for the Orange. Cuse has not been favored since Collins took over at QB and UNC nearly pulled the upset in each of their last 2 games as a dog of more than a TD in both. We’ll take North Carolina and the points here.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls -4.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - The Bulls are 3-0 with all three wins coming against playoff qualifying teams from a year ago. They have gotten great all around contributions with 6 players scoring in double-digits in all three games. The Bulls have the 10th best FG% in the NBA at 48.1% and are shooting 37% from beyond the arc (11th). They also have the 7th best FG% defense and best 3PT% D in the NBA. The Kings have gotten off to a 1-3 SU start and are in a tough scheduling situation here with this being the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. They also are coming off an emotional game in OKC last night. Last season the Kings were 5-11 SU when playing without rest with an average point differential of minus -6.4ppg. Chicago is on a 13-7 SU run when playing with a rest advantage dating back to last season. To be honest, the Kings have the better roster, but the Bulls are playing hard for Billy Donovan right now and benefit from scheduling. Lay it with the home team.

#929 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - The Blue Jays were expected to get steamrolled by most prognosticators.  However, not only are they not getting steamrolled, they just might win this thing!  Already, by virtue of winning last night's critical Game 4 (and convincingly by the way), they have guaranteed there will be more baseball north of the border on Friday (at least) no matter what happens tonight.  Actually we would not be surprised to see this scrappy Blue Jays team take a 3-2 series lead home to Toronto but we are going to have the added insurance of the run line here.  Yesavage gets the start for Toronto and he is facing Snell of the Dodgers just like he did in Game 1 of this series.  That one was a big Jays win and while this one will not be so easy on the road, we just don't see Toronto being blown out and there is a lot of value.  The Jays bullpen has been better than the Dodgers and Yesavage did pitch better than Snell in the first game.  Also, the Dodgers last 11 playoff games have featured only 4 wins by more than a 1-run margin!  7 of the last 9 Blue Jays games have either been outright wins or a loss by just a 1-run margin!  This one is all about the value!  We are going with the +1.5 runs with the run line in this one! 

#307 ASA PLAY ON Florida International +3.5 over Missouri State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - We like the big advantage FIU will have in the running game here. They rank in the top 35 nationally in YPG on the ground and YPC. They’ve really turned it up on the ground as of late with 222 yards rushing vs Kennesaw State and 249 yards rushing vs Western Kentucky (their 2 most recent games). Those are 2 of the best teams in CUSA with Kennesaw currently in 1st place winning 5 straight games and WKY in 3rd place. The Panthers beat WKY 25-6 on the road and despite their loss vs Kennesaw, they outgained the Owls and put up over 500 yards. FIU has put up over 200 yards on the ground in 4 of their 7 games this season. They’ll be facing a Missouri State D that ranks 119th allowing 4.9 YPC. That’s despite facing 4 straight opponents that rank outside the top 100 in rushing. The only 2 teams they faced that rank inside the top 100 put up 233 and 191 yards on the ground vs this Bear defense. While the Panthers were giving 2 of the top teams in the conference problems in their last 2 games, Missouri State faced 2 of the worst teams in the country, MTSU and New Mexico State, and won those games by 2 points and in OT respectively. The Bears are in their first year in the FBS and while they have 3 wins vs FBS teams, all 3 have been by 2 points or less or in OT. Unlike FIU, Mizzou State is a poor running team ranking outside the top 100 in YPG rushing and YPC and they’ve been outrushed by -1.6 YPC. We always like taking a strong look at good rushing underdogs that should control the line of scrimmage. We’ve got that here with FIU.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 at Boston Celtics, 7pm ET - Last season these two teams were eerily similar with the Cavs have the 2nd best Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +9.6, the Celtics were right behind them at +9.4. But that Celtics roster included Tatum, Porzingis, Holiday and Horford who are injured (Tatum) or not on the roster anymore. The Cavs return the core of their roster including All-Stars Mobley and Mitchell. The Cavs were -2-point favorites at Detroit and at New York this season and we grade those two teams significantly better than this Celtics roster. Boston is coming off their first win of the season at New Orleans who currently rate as the 2nd worst team in the NBA when it comes to eDiff. The Cavs have won 2 straight games against Eastern Conference contenders the Bucks and Pistons. Cleveland is shooting the ball significantly better than the Celtics right now at 47.6% overall (11th) and 36.8% from deep (11th) compared to Boston’s numbers of 44.8% and 31.9% which both rank 26th or worse in the NBA.

#283 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +11.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - KC is playing as well as anyone in the NFL over the last few weeks and that’s giving us huge line value with Washington in this game. To put this +11.5 line in perspective, it is almost basically the same number that KC was laying last week vs Las Vegas who is one of the worst teams in the NFL (that line was -13 to -13.5). To compare those 2 teams via DVOA, Washington ranks 7th in the NFL and Las Vegas is 28th. You get the point. On top of that, we get a playoff caliber team Washington coming off a blowout, embarrassing loss @ Dallas 44-22. The Commanders had 2 turnovers in that loss (0 for Dallas) and both led to TD’s for the Cowboys including a pick 6. Washington was also missing 2 of their key offensive weapons in that game, Samuel and McLaurin, and both are expected back here. QB Jayden Daniels was injured in the game and will not play here but he has struggled his last few starts so that may be a bonus. Marcus Mariota is one of the best back ups on the league and this will be his 3rd start this season (1-1 record). KC is coming off a shutout win vs a plummeting Las Vegas team and the Raiders ran only 30 total offensive plays which is insanely low. That easy win, along with Washington’s poor performance pushed this line to -12.5 and the look ahead number last week was -5.5. A full TD move based on last week’s results + the QB injury for the Commanders which may not set them back at all offensively. KC has their rivalry game with Buffalo on deck so if they get ahead late look for them to dial it back on offense. Washington’s road games this year had them +3 at Green Bay, +3 at LA Chargers, +2.5 at Atlanta, and +1.5 at Dallas. Now they’re getting almost 2 TD’s here? We’ll take Washington.

ASA play on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:10 pm ET - It’s the battle of “beatens” tonight as the 0-3 Celtics take on the 0-2 Pelicans. New Orleans does enjoy a scheduling advantage here as they last played on Friday, while the Celtics played yesterday making this the 2nd of a back-to-back and it’s also their 3rd game in four days. The Pelicans have some injuries to their bigs and it's shown in their first two games, but a small lineup tonight won’t hurt them. Boston has been outrebounded 108-75 in their last two games as the offseason losses of Porzingis, Horford and Kornet have taken a toll on their frontcourt. New Orleans has lost two close games to the Grizzlies and Spurs and have been dominated inside with opponents averaging 60ppg in the paint. The Celtics can’t take advantage of that weakness as they rank 24th in points scored in the paint. Boston lives and dies with the 3-point shot and the Pelicans are 2nd in the league in 3PT% defense at 30%. The Celtics still have a bullseye on their backs from a Championship two years ago so it’s not like the Pelicans will be looking past them here. There is a reason the Pels are favored here, lay the points!

ASA play on Portland Trailblazers +8.5 at LA Clippers, 9:10pm ET - The Blazers clearly have some controversy swirling around their team with their head coach on leave after gambling implications, but the players should put that behind them here in a big game in Los Angeles. The Blazers are going to be better than anticipated anchored by a formidable defense. The Blazers had the 4th best Defensive Net rating in the NBA a year ago post All-Star break and this year's squad has potential to be better with the addition of Jrue Holiday. Portland didn’t let the noise distract them Friday night when they pounded the Warriors 139-119 at home. The Clippers were embarrassed in the season opener in Utah but bounced back on Friday with a 27-point win over the Suns. L.A. has a rebuilt roster with several new faces and make take a little time to jell with all of the ‘alpha’s’ in that lineup. Portland had an average road differential of minus -1.2ppg on the road last season after the All-Star break with a 6-8 record. This should be a tight defensive game from start to finish.

#279 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys +3.5 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Denver had an absolute miracle win over the Giants last week here at home. They trailed 19-0 in the 4th quarter but rallied to put up 33 points in the fourth quarter for a 33-32 win. The Broncos are 5-2 but they’ve played the 4th easiest schedule to date and 4 of their 5 wins have come against the Jets, Bengals, Titans, and Giants. Those 4 teams all rank 27th or lower in overall DVOA. Their one OK win came vs the Eagles, who are obviously down this year, and Denver rallied from a 17-3 fourth quarter deficit to squeak that one out. All of their wins with the exception of Cincinnati have been 1 score games. The Cowboys have been able to stay in games with their high powered offense. Of their 3 losses, 2 have come by 4 points or less. They rank #1 in total offense and are averaging almost 30 PPG. They also got a huge boost last week with WR Lamb getting back in the line up for their 44-22 win over Washington. They have scored at least 27 points in 5 of their last 6 games and while Denver has great numbers of defense, they’ve already faced 4 opposing offenses ranked 26th or lower. They’ve faced only 2 top 10 offenses and lost both of those games vs Chargers and Colts. They are just 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite. We have a big edge at QB here with Dak Prescott having an MVP type year (#1 QBR) vs an up and down Bo Nix. If we look strictly at DVOA, Dallas is the better team ranking 9th compared to 14th for Denver. Take the points here.

#272 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -7 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Look, we’re all about finding edges where the market’s sleeping, and this Eagles-Giants matchup is screaming opportunity. Forget team loyalty—this is about exploiting a line that’s begging to be played. Philly’s coming off their best offensive showing of the season, averaging 7.8 yards per play against Minnesota, and now they’re back home where they’ve been fantastic, posting a 12-2 SU record in their last 14 at Lincoln Financial Field with a +9.6 point differential. Meanwhile, the Giants are reeling. They pulled off a massive upset 34-17 upset over Philly two weeks ago in their own building, but last week’s collapse in Denver—blowing a 19-0 lead and giving up 33 points in the fourth quarter alone—exposed their defensive frailties. Our internal metrics rank the Eagles 9th overall, while the Giants limp in at 25th. Philly’s had two weeks to dissect tape on New York’s rookie QB Jaxson Dart, so no surprises this time. The same -7.5 spread was set when these teams met in New York, but now the Eagles have momentum, home-field dominance, and a chip on their shoulders. Don’t overthink this one, take Philadelphia and don’t look back.

#264 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -1.5 over San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This line is off, and the value clearly lies with the Houston Texans. The sportsbooks have the Texans as a measly -1.5 home favorite against San Francisco, but let’s break it down. Just last week, Houston was a +3 underdog at Seattle, a team we rank 4th in our power ratings—significantly higher than the 49ers, who sit at a pedestrian 14th. If the Texans were +3 on the road against a superior Seahawks squad, basic math says they’d be at least a 3-point favorite at home against Seattle. This spread is a gift. Houston’s sitting at 2-4, desperate for a win to turn their season around, and their defense is tremendous allowing just 4.9 yards per play (5th) and 274 total yards per game (4th). The offense has sputtered, sure, but they’re facing a 49ers team that’s banged up and average in most key defensive categories. The Niners are 5-7 straight-up in their last 12 road games. Meanwhile, Houston is 7-4 straight-up in their last 11 home games. The Texans are in a must-win spot, with a defense that can suffocate San Francisco’s attack. Grab the -1.5 and ride Houston to a statement victory.

ASA play on: Hornets +4.5 at 76ers, 7:40pm ET - The Charlotte Hornets looked sharp in their season opener, dismantling the Brooklyn Nets 136-117 behind a franchise-record nine players in double figures, including 25 points from Brandon Miller and 20 points with eight assists from LaMelo Ball. Their balanced attack and 53.3% field goal shooting signal a team that's bought into new coach Charles Lee's system early—no injuries to report, and they're riding high heading into Philly. On the flip side, the 76ers' 117-116 thriller over the Celtics was a mirage propped up by unsustainable shooting from Tyrese Maxey (40 points on 13-of-24) and rookie VJ Edgecombe (34 points on 13-of-26), who combined for a ridiculous 26-of-50 from the field. That's 52% efficiency on high volume—well above Maxey's career 45.5% mark or any reasonable rookie baseline for Edgecombe. Expect regression tonight, especially with Charlotte's backcourt (Ball, Tre Mann) primed to hound them. Joel Embiid was a non-factor in his return from knee surgery, logging just 20 minutes with four points on 1-of-9 shooting and visibly limited mobility—no lift on shots, slow recovery on the floor. He's on a strict minutes cap and doesn't look anywhere near MVP form yet, leaving the Sixers thin inside against Charlotte's frontcourt depth (Miles Bridges' 18-11 double-double in the opener). Paul George remains sidelined with a knee issue, thinning the wings further.

#176 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +7.5 over Texas, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET - Texas continues to be vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are just 2-5 ATS and 0-2 ATS as a road favorite. On the other end, MSU has been and continues to be undervalued. They are 6-1 ATS this year and have already beaten a very good Arizona State team here and they took Tennessee to OT. The Vols had 2 defensive TD’s in that game and the Bulldogs still pushed them to overtime where they lost by 7. This will be the 2nd straight road game for the Horns. Last week they traveled to Kentucky, who we have rated as the worst team in the SEC, and squeaked out a 16-13 win in OT. Take a look at the stats in that game. Texas had a total of 179 yards (including the 2 OT’s) and Kentucky, whose offense isn’t great (94th in total offense), had 395 yards. The Horns offense is bad. They rank outside the top 70 in total offense, passing, rushing, and scoring. Their offensive line has been a disaster and QB Manning has been average at best. MSU is coming off a 2 point loss @ Florida last Saturday in a game they outgained the Gators. Their only non-competitive game was @ Texas A&M and that was the week after they came off their OT home loss vs Tennessee and had a number of guys on the shelf with injuries after that one. Their offense has been solid averaging over 400 YPG and 32 PPG. MSU’s defense has been solid holding 5 of their 7 opponents to 23 points or less. This is a huge home game for State while Texas has bigger fish to fry next weekend when they host top 10 Vanderbilt. We think this one stays close and wouldn’t be shocked if the Bulldogs pull the upset.

#123 ASA PLAY ON Baylor +4 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - This is a classic buy low, sell high spot with the 6-1 Bearcats overvalued and the 4-3 Bears undervalued. Baylor has faced the much tougher schedule with Auburn, SMU, ASU, KSU and TCU all on the Bears resume. Cincinnati has won 6 straight games but really had favorable scheduling with most of those wins. UC beat Kansas despite getting outgained 10.9YPP to 7.4YPP, the win against ISU was essentially an even game and their win over UCF was a miracle at best. Central Florida had 413 total yards to 306, 15 less first downs and a time of possession deficit of 19 minutes. Both teams faced Oklahoma State and won convincingly but Baylor had much better numbers against the Cowboys than Cincinnati did. Baylor is putting up 486 total yards per game (11th most) at 6.3YPP with the #1 rated passing offense in college football at 344PYPG. The Bears should have a ton of success in that area of the game as the Bearcats allow 240PYPG (97th). Cincinnati has some great overall numbers too including the #2 yards per play offense but the only good defense they faced was Nebraska’s in the first game of the season and they managed just 17 points and 271 total yards of offense. As we mentioned in the beginning of this analysis, this is a great spot to buy low on Baylor and sell high on Cincinnati.

#141 ASA PLAY ON NC State +6.5 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This game qualifies for our ‘fishy’ game of the week. We have a red hot Pitt team that has won 3 straight, facing a Wolfpack team that has lost 3 in a row and more money and tickets have been bet on Pittsburgh, yet the line has dropped from them being favored by -9.5 to under a TD at -6.5. Pitt has destroyed three teams in Boston College, Florida State and Syracuse but all three of those teams are in a free fall with FSU losing 4 straight, the Cuse 3 in a row and BC on a 6 game skid. Pitt’s coming off a misleading 30-13 win at Syracuse (who was down to a freshman QB) with just 260 total yards of offense against an Orange team that allows 426ypg (105th). The Panthers defensive numbers are good but they’ve faced a bunch of injury riddled offenses including Florida State a few weeks ago. NC State has similar offensive numbers to FSU and the Seminoles put up 415 total yards at 6.6YPP against the Panthers. Pitt also caught FSU coming off a huge game against Miami. The Wolfpack are getting healthy after a bye week and feature an offense that is 48th in total yards per game gained at 6.3YPP (37th). Those numbers come against the 37th toughest schedule in the nation. Defensively the Wolfpack have some weak statistics but take that with a grain of salt considering they’ve faced 4 offenses in the top 35 in terms of total yards per game gained. We are taking the points in this one.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets +2.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - You may be shocked by the following but the Nuggets have dominated the Warriors in recent years with a 9-1 SU record in the last ten meetings. Denver is our pick to win the Championship this season with a much improved roster over last years, with the additions of Bruce Brown, Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr and Jonas Valanciunas. The Warriors looked good in their opener against the Lakers who were without LeBron, but now they step up in class against this Championship contender. Denver will again center everything they do around Nikola Jokic and Jamaal Murray. SGA may have won the MVP a year ago but the best player in the league was Jokic. The Joker played in just two games against the Warriors a year ago and scored 71 total points, grabbed 22 rebounds and dished out 15 assists. Golden State brought in Al Horford at center but his days of being able to contain Jokic are long gone. Denver was one of just 12 teams in the league to have a positive point differential on the road at +2.1ppg. Golden State is not as dominant at home like they used to be as they were 24-17 SU at home a year ago with an average MOV of +2.2ppg. The much better team is getting points here and we will gladly jump in with a play on Denver.

#109 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings +3.5 over LA Chargers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Chargers haven’t covered a game since September 15th (2-4-1 ATS). Their only outright win since September 21st was by 2 points vs Miami who is one of the worst teams in the NFL. They only have 1 win this season by more than 3 points and that was vs the Raiders. They can’t be trusted to lay more than a FG right now. Offensively they will most likely be missing both starting offensive tackles and they are down to their 4th string RB. They’ll be facing a Minnesota defense that ranks in the top 10 overall and has been very good vs the pass (7th in the NFL). If they can limit Justin Herbert they should be in a good spot as LA doesn’t run the ball with less than 30% of their total yardage coming on the ground (down to 4th string RB as we stated). Minnesota lost 28-22 to Philly last week and they should have success offensively here vs a struggling LAC defense. LA has allowed 28 PPG over their last 4 and they rank 31st in defensive success rate during that stretch. We like the better defense getting points here vs a Charger offense that has scored only 10 TD’s in their 24 red zone trips (31st in the league). We’ll call this one to the wire and take the Vikings.

ASAwins NBA play on Toronto Raptors +5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - There are some high expectations for the Hawks this season and they find themselves in the unfamiliar role as the ‘hunted’ instead of the ‘hunter’. Atlanta made some bold moves in the offseason and brought in Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to make a bid for the Eastern Conference title. We love the young talent on this roster with Risacher, Johnson and Daniels but we’re not sure they are ready to make that type of jump, especially early on. Toronto is a sleeper team this season and one that could surprise teams early on. This Raptors team has a solid starting lineup with Quickley, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes and Poeltl which played well in the second half of the season a year ago. Toronto was 22-21 in the second half of the season with elite defensive numbers. From the All-Star break on, the Raptors Defensive Efficiency rating of 1.122 points allowed per possession was top 10 in the NBA. Even with injuries last season the Raptors average loss margin on the road was -5.8ppg. Atlanta was 21-19 SU at home last season with an average +/- of minus -1.3ppg. The Hawks were 7-13 ATS as a home favorite last season with a plus/minus of +0.3ppg. Raptors also 21-17 ATS as a road pooch. We will grab the points but don’t be shocked if Toronto wins this outright.

#106 ASA PLAY ON Delaware -8.5 over Middle Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have Delaware as a double digit favorite so we’re grabbing the value with the line currently under 10 (-8.5). MTSU has 1 win on the season @ Nevada who currently sits with a 1-6 record and their only win coming vs an FCS team. MTSU won that game 14-13 and the Blue Raiders scored 2 TD’s in the final 6:30 of the game to win after not scoring a point prior to that. Nevada dominated the stats despite the loss outgaining MTSU 6.2 YPP to 4.7 and the Wolfpack missed 2 FG’s in the final 4:15 otherwise MTSU would be winless. Delaware is 3-3 and they outgained their opponents in 2 of those losses and were outgained by just 2 yards in their loss @ Colorado. This team is better than their .500 record. They have a positive YPG and YPP differential while MTSU is getting outgained by almost 60 YPG and they have a -1.0 YPP margin while playing similar strength of schedules. The Blue Hens have won 13 of their last 14 home games with their only loss coming vs Western Kentucky despite outgained the Hilltoppers by 97 yards. They are the much more balanced offense and they are averaging 29 PPG and 34 PPG at home. MTSU can’t run the ball at all (135th in rushing) and we don’t think they can keep up offensively in this game. They have topped 20 points only once this season and they’ve been held to 21 points or less in 15 of their last 17 games dating back to last season. The Hens have some extra urgency coming off 2 straight losses and we’ll lay the points with the home team.

#476 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -5.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for Detroit coming off a loss last week @ KC. Their loss @ KC wasn’t a huge surprise as the Chiefs have been playing very well and it was more of a must win for them at home. The YPP numbers were close to even in that game. They had won their previous 4 games by a combined score of 161-85 (all by at least 8 points) with the offense scoring at least 34 points in all of those games. Tampa is sitting at 5-1 on the season yet NFL DVOA (advanced metric) has them as the 13th best team in the league (Detroit is 3rd). Not surprising as 4 of Tampa’s 5 wins have been come from behind wins in the last minute of the game with 3 of those coming in the final 6 seconds of the game. Despite their 5-1 record, they are only +14 in overall point differential which is 13th in the NFL. The Bucs are also really banged up right now. Baker Mayfield has had a very good year to this point but it looks like he will be without ALL of his starting skill position players on Sunday. That’s RB Irving, WR’s Evans, Godwin, and Egbuka. Tampa is coming off a 30-19 home win over San Francisco which was their only comfortable win this season and even in that game the Bucs were outgained but benefitted from 2 Niner turnovers (0 for TB). The Lions have some extra motivation here after losing 20-16 at home vs Tampa last year despite outgaining the Bucs 463 to 216. They were -7.5 point favorites in that game and now we’re getting the Lions under a TD in a great situational spot. Detroit is a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS playing at home off a loss since 2023 with a averaging winning margin of +15.5 PPG. Head coach Dan Campbell is at ATS machine with a 57-31-2 spread record which is easily the best in the NFL.

#473 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +2 over San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - San Francisco remains really banged up and we’ll side with the dog in this one. The Niners will again be without starting QB Purdy along with many of their offensive weapons including TE Kittle, WR Pearsall, WR Aiyuk (getting closer to practicing), and WR Valdez-Scantling. They also lost arguably their top defensive player last week as well with LB Warner out and DE Bosa was already sidelined. They did win their first 3 games of the season (by a combined 10 points) when they were at least semi healthy (Purdy did miss 2 of those games). Over their last 3, the Niners have gone 1-2 with their only win coming in OT vs the Rams in a game San Fran was outgained by 7.1 to 4.9 YPP. The defense has allowed at least 7.0 YPP in 2 of their last 3 games. SF is 4-2 on the season but has a -3 point differential (20th in the NFL) and their YPP differential is only +0.1 (18th in the NFL). They’ve been pretty fortunate piecing together a winning record to this point but their injuries are starting to catch up with them. Atlanta is better than their 3-2 record. They have some impressive wins over Buffalo, Washington, and @ Minnesota and they rank 5th in the NFL in YPP margin. The Birds are outgaining their opponents by +125 YPG and they lead the league in rushing at 151 YPG on the ground while SF can’t run the ball (82 YPG). Atlanta ranks higher than San Francisco in offensive and defensive YPG and YPP and they’ve faced the tougher schedule. The Falcons offense leads the NFL averaging 379 YPG. We’ll take the better team getting points on Sunday night.

#459 ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We know you are backing a bad team here in the Saints but are the Bears that much better? Let’s look at Chicago first and their 3 game winning streak. Granted, winning in the NFL isn’t easy and wins are wins but the Bears beat Dallas despite getting outgained (Cowboys in bad scheduling spot off Giants and Packers on deck), beat the Raiders – outgained – and got a last second win Monday night over the Commanders. Should they really be laying 5-points here. The Saints have just one win on the season but don’t look like a team that has quit with three of their losses coming by 1-score. New Orleans has also faced the tougher schedule with games against the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and 49ers, yet have similar statistics to Chicago. Saints average 4.9YPP and 305 yards per game. The Bears average 338YPG but are more explosive at 5.7YPP. New Orleans is 18th in total yards allowed per game at 327 at 5.5YPP. The Bears give up an average of 369YPG at 6.6YPP (most in the league). Chicago has a home record of 11-16 SU dating back to the start of the 2022 season with an average margin of victory of +0.1ppg which isn’t enough to get a cover here. New Orleans is 9-18 SU their last 27 road games BUT they have an average loss margin in those games is -3.3ppg. This is going to be a FG game either way.

#462 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings +2 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The public betting markets are favoring the Eagles in this game, yet the line has moved in the opposite direction with Philly opening -2.5 and moving to the current number of -2 or -1.5. The losses on the coaching staff have obviously had a much bigger impact on the Eagles this season than anticipated. The Eagles are 4-2 SU but have a negative total scoring differential of minus -0.2. They have a negative yards per play differential at 4.9YPP on offense but give up 5.5YPP defensively. Philadelphia’s offense is 29th in total yards per game, 26th in rushing yards per game and 28th in passing. The Eagles’ defense finished last season as the best in the NFL when it comes to Efficiency stats and allowed the fewest yards per play at 4.8. This season the Eagles rank 13th in YPP defense and rank 26th in Efficiency ratings. Minnesota hasn’t been great offensively by any means with an unsettled QB situation with McCarthy and Wentz but their numbers aren’t much worse than Philadelphia’s. The Vikings gained 4.8YPP with McCarthy under center and 6.0YPP with Wentz. Minnesota’s defense is allowing the 6th fewest yards per game at 289 and the 6th lowest YPP average at 5.1. The Vikings O-line is getting healthy, they are coming off a bye week and the Eagles have the Giants on deck, who just upset them last week. Take the home team.

#451 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams -3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET (London) - Much is being made of the fact that Jacksonville is used to these international games having already played 13 times overseas (7-6 SU record). They have a new head coach this time around so that “advantage” could be lessened. We’re going to toss that aside and simply take the better team here (and by a pretty wide margin). The Rams are coming off a 17-3 win @ Baltimore where they didn’t play particularly well. They ran 24 fewer plays and still won by 2 TD’s and outgained the Ravens by nearly 1.0 YPP. They missed a short FG and were shut out on downs at the Baltimore 6 yard line so it could have been a more dominating final score. The Rams are one of just 2 teams that rank in the top 5 DVOA (advanced metric) on offense, defense, and overall (Seattle is the other team). They lead the NFL in YPP margin at +1.5 and they’ve outgained ALL of their opponents (YPP). Meanwhile, the Jags have been outgained in 4 straight games (YPP) including -2.7, -2.4 and -1.0 YPP margins in their last 3 games (vs Seattle, KC, and SF). The only teams they’ve outgained this year (YPP) are the Bengals and Panthers. They’ve been living off their turnover margin of +8 which is tops in the NFL. The Jag’s 14 takeaways lead the NFL and those numbers (TO margin) are really tough to sustain. The Jags have been outgained in the season both YPG and YPP. They simply aren’t as good as their 4-2 record, whereas the Rams are just a play or 2 away from a 6-0 record. NFL international favorites are just 1-2 ATS this year but historically the chalk hits over 60% in overseas games. We’ll lay it with the Rams.

#335 ASA PLAY ON Old Dominion +1.5 over James Madison, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for a very good ODU team as a dog. They were 2 TD favorites on the road last week vs Marshall and now getting points partly due to that result. The Monarchs were embarrassed last week losing 48-24 @ Marshall. The yardage was even but ODU had 5 turnovers (0 for Marshall) and were shut out on downs twice inside the Thundering Herd 5 yard line. Those turnovers led directly to 28 points for Marshall. Just a bad game for a really solid team and we expect a bounce back. Prior to last week, Old Dominion was 1 of 5 teams in the country that were averaging over 7.0 YPP on offense and allowing less than 4.5 YPP on defense (so elite on both sides of the ball). ODU was one of those 5 teams along with Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, and Texas Tech (elite company). The only other loss ODU has this year was @ Indiana (top 5 team?) and they hung tight in that one losing 27-14. That’s the same IU team that beat Illinois at home 63-10! James Madison is 5-1 but they’ve faced a really easy schedule (133rd SOS). The only decent team they’ve faced was Louisville and they lost that game by 2 TD’s. The other 4 FBS teams they’ve faced have a combined 8-17 record and none are currently at or above .500. JMU’s defense has solid numbers vs a bunch of poor offensive teams, but on the other side of the ball they only average 5.5 YPP (86th nationally). Compare that to ODU’s offense putting up 7.6 YPP (3rd in the nation) and we don’t think JMU can keep up. Keep in mind ODU’s defense is also top 25 in YPP allowed that includes their terrible performance last week. The Monarchs have played the much tougher schedule (72nd SOS to 133rd) and they still have much better YPG and YPP margins. The best team in the Sun Belt is off terrible loss and getting points. We’ll take Old Dominion.

#363 ASA PLAY ON Purdue +3 over Northwestern, Saturday at 3 PM ET - This is a classic letdown spot for the Wildcats as they come off a win over Penn State as a +20-point underdog. In fact, if you are a trend player, teams off a big upset win like Northwestern fall into several negative play against systems the following week. Purdue has lost four straight games but they’ve come against USC, @ Notre Dame, Illinois and @ Minnesota. The Boilermakers put up 456 total yards last week against Minnesota and held the Gophers to 262 but still came up short on the scoreboard. Northwestern will try to rely on their ground game here which averages 4.8 yards per rush and 183 rushing yards per game. They have to, in fact, because their passing attack is atrocious averaging 181 passing yards per game (110th). That will be a problem against a Purdue defense that is better against the run than their raw statistics. PU allows 3.8 yards per rush and 129 rushing yards per game. Purdue passes for 270 yards per game with the 18th highest pass attempt average in the country at 37.2. The Boilermakers QB Browne is capable of having a big game here against a Northwestern defense with just 0.4 INT’s per game. Grab the points with Purdue and don’t be shocked with the upset.

#390 ASA PLAY ON Tulane -9.5 over Army, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Tulane has had this date circled all season long after losing to Army last year in the AAC Championship game. The Wave were favored by -5-points at Michie Stadium a year ago which makes today’s line a bargain. Tulane lost 35-14 last season but averaged 6.0 YPP compared to the Knights 5.9 YPP. The Green Wave botched field goal attempts after their first two drives, then fumbling a kickoff and had a pass intercepted in their own territory on the next two possessions. Army is not the team they were a year ago and Tulane is slightly better. The Wave are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS this season with signature wins over Northwestern and Duke. Last week the Wave beat East Carolina 26-19 as a -6.5-point favorite but the final score could have been much worse. Tulane had their first four drives stopped inside the 40-yard line and settled for FG’s. Tulane averaged 7.4 YPP vs. ECU and held the Pirates to 340 total yards at 4.6 YPP. Speaking of ECU…Army recently lost to the Pirates 6-28 and were thoroughly dominated by the Pirates. The Knights are coming off a pair of wins against UAB and Charlotte who are two of the worst FBS programs in the country. The pedestrian Black Knights offense (4.9YPP – 122nd nationally) will have a tough time keeping pace with the Wave (5.9 YPP) playing with a revenge mindset. Lay it with Tulane!

#962 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+110) over Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8:38 PM ET - Same situation we successfully used yesterday with our run line pick on LA.  The fact is that the Brewers enter this game slumping so far in this series and now down 3 games to 0 which also puts even more pressure on them at the plate.  Make sure you select 'action' on the pitchers here as that is not a key factor for us.  Ohtani is the expected starter for the Dodgers and he had a respectable post-season start at Philly in NLDS action.  He also was strong late in the season plus he had a 1.71 ERA and held opponents to a .151 batting average in his 7 home starts this season.  Even if LA goes with an opener or changes their mind on Ohtani, we love having the Dodgers here.  The Brewers have not announced a starter at the time we are writing this up but it simply is not the most critical factor as right now they simply can not shake their slump at the plate.  Also the Dodgers crushed the ball at home this season, the #1 slugging percentage in the majors and the Brewers are hitting .152 in their 3 road games in this post-season.  That said, Milwaukee is in trouble now as the Dodgers went 52-29 at home this season and LA is on an overall 13-1 run dating back to the final week of the regular season.  The Brewers, on the other hand, have lost all 3 post-season road games and also wrapped up the regular season losing 7 of the last 9 road games!  Of course the Dodgers are a huge money line favorite here because of all of the factors noted above.  However, the run line is where the value is at as it is available at a plus money return here and we invest in a strong home team with big edges.  Lay the 1.5 runs Friday with the LA Dodgers!  

#312 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - While Pittsburgh is sitting at 4-1 on the season, we’re not so sure they deserve to be. The Steelers have been very fortunate to get to that record as they’ve been outgained by 79 YPG, by 0.2 YPP, and by 0.7 YPC (rushing). The Bengals showed some life last week with new acquired Joe Flacco at QB hanging with Green Bay on the road (Cincy cover). They lost that game by 9 points (27-18 final) and the Bengals scored all 18 points in the 2nd half giving them some momentum heading into Thursday’s game. Flacco was solid completing 29 of 45 pass attempts with 2 TD’s. Cincy has played only 2 home games so far this season and they’ve been solid in those 2 games. They beat Jacksonville with their back up QB Browning (Burrow went out very early in that game) and then despite their home loss to Detroit, the yardage was pretty close (365 to 322 in favor of the Lions) but 3 turnovers by the Bengals were the difference (Browning started that game). Pittsburgh is off an easy 23-9 home win vs Cleveland last week but they benefitted from catching the Browns in a horrible situation (3rd straight game away for Cleveland and coming back from London with no bye). That fact is, the Steelers have been outgained in 3 of their 4 wins and despite their 4-1 record their point differential is only +12 which is 15th in the NFL. 5 of last 6 games in this AFC North series have been decided by a single score. 3 of Pittsburgh’s 4 wins have come by 7 or less and we like this one to stay tight. Take the points.

#958 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 6:08 PM ET - The Brewers went 6-0 against the Dodgers in the regular season and that included 2 wins in games in which Tyler Glasnow was on the hill for LA.  However, Glasnow did pitch well and allowed only 1 earned run while striking out 11 in 11 innings on the mound in those two outings.  The point is that the Milwaukee lineup certainly did not enjoy success against him and now the Brewers enter this game slumping so far in this series and down 2 games to 0 which also puts more pressure on them.  Make sure you select 'action' on the pitchers here as, though Johan Quintana might start, the Brewers have not made a firm announcement on this as of early Thursday morning.  Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy has merely stated that all pitchers, other than Freddy Peralta, are available for this game.  However, that may not help the Brewers anyway as their bullpen guys have allowed 4 of the 7 Dodgers runs so far in this series.  Simply put, Milwaukee is in trouble now as the Dodgers went 52-29 at home this season and Glasnow has been strong thus far in the post-season.  Also, in the regular season Glasnow held opponents to a .177 batting average this year and a .190 batting average last year!  LA is on a 12-1 run dating back to the final week of the regular season.  The Brewers, on the other hand, have lost both post-season road games and also wrapped up the regular season losing 7 of the last 9 road games!  Of course the Dodgers are a huge money line favorite here because of all of the factors noted above.  However, the run line is where the value is at it is available at a plus money return here and we invest in a strong home team with big edges.  Lay the 1.5 runs Thursday with the LA Dodgers!   

#308 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State +2.5 over Delaware, Wednesday at 7 PM ET -  We like this Delaware team but they shouldn’t be favored in this game.  Our power ratings have Jax State as a slight home favorite here.  For comparison, Delaware’s most recent home game a few weeks ago they were a 4.5 point underdog @ FIU who was have rated 3.5 points worse than Jacksonville State.  Value on the home dog here.  JSU should have a big advantage rushing in this game which was always like to have when siding with a dog.  The Gamecocks rank 4th in the nation in rushing averaging 280 YPG on the ground.  The only defense that held them under 200 yards rushing was UCF and they’ve topped 300 yards on the ground 3 times.  Tonight they are facing a Delaware D that ranks 82nd vs the rush and 99th in YPC allowed.  Overall the Blue Hens defense ranks 105th in YPP allowed and it’s tough laying points on the road when the defense is struggling.  This is their first road game since September 20th and while they won that game @ FIU, they were outgained by a poor team.  JSU hasn’t played a home game in nearly a month and they are 2-0 this year at home with wins over Liberty and Murray State.  The Gamecocks are 12-2 SU at home since making the jump to FBS 2 years ago and as a home dog they are 2-1 ATS over the last 2+ seasons with 2 outright wins.  We like JSU to pull the mini upset here. 

#276 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +4.5 over Buffalo Bills, Monday at 7 PM ET - Do we really know how good the Bills are at this point? We hear many anointing them the best team in the AFC but we’re not so sure. The NFL DVOA metric has them rated as the 9th best team in the NFL with Atlanta just a few spots behind. Let’s look how they’ve gotten to their current 4-1 record. First, they’ve played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far. In week 1 they came from 15 points down with under 4:00 remaining to beat the Ravens scoring 17 points in the final 3:56. While Baltimore has had some injuries, even prior to that they’ve shown they might not be near the level they were a year ago. After that the Bills beat the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints who have a combined record of 2-13 (as of Sunday morning). Last week, the Patriots played them toe to toe (both averaged 6.0 YPP) and won in Buffalo 23-20. We’re not sure the Bills should be favored by a FG or more here. Atlanta is in a great spot coming off a bye week. We think the Falcons are undervalued right now. Their 2 losses came vs Tampa Bay, who scored with under 1 minute remaining to get the 3 point win, and @ Carolina. That game still baffles us. The Birds outgained Carolina by more than 100 yards, had more first downs, averaged 5.7 YPC rushing to 3.7 for the Panthers and lost big. 3 turnovers didn’t help. Atlanta has some nice momentum heading into the bye beat a good Washington team while outgaining them 435 to 294. They have a mobile QB (Penix) and are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL (6th) facing a Buffalo defense that ranks 28th vs the run. The Falcons have played the much tougher schedule, yet still have better YPG and YPP margins. Their defense has been outstanding and currently ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense and #3 in YPP allowed. We think this game goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points.

#259 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks +1 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday a 1 PM ET - We were on Seattle last week and they lost on a FG as time expired. Actually Tampa scored 10 points in the final 1:05 of that game to come from behind and win. The Seahawks offense was really good averaging a whopping 8.6 YPP in that loss. The defense came into the game as one of the best in the NFL and threw up a stinker allowing TB to score 38 points after not allowing any of their first 4 opponents to top 20 points. We like the defense to bounce back and play very well here. Seattle still ranks in the top 10 in defensive DVOA and they rank as the 2nd best team in the NFL overall DVOA. Their YPP margin of +1.2 is the 2nd best in the NFL. This team is much better than their 3-2 record. They catch the Jags on a short week after beating KC on Monday night in one of their biggest home wins in the last 3 or 4 seasons. The Chiefs actually dominated Jacksonville in the stat sheet with 476 total yards (7.6 YPP) to just 319 yards for Jags on 5.9 YPP. Jacksonville won the turnover battle in that game including a game changing 99 yard pick 6 which was a 14 point turnaround. Despite that, they still needed a TD with 23 seconds left to win by 3. The Jaguars lead the NFL in turnover margin and have 4 more takeaways (14) than anyone else in the NFL. That’s not sustainable and once the turnovers even out, this team won’t be as successful. Despite their 4-1 record, they are getting outgained on a YPG and YPP basis on the season. We don’t love the long travel for the Seahawks, but that is offset a bit by Jacksonville playing on a short week. The better team is getting points here and the Seahawks have won 9 of their last 10 road games outright. We’ll take Seattle to win this game.

#252 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets +7.5 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET (game in London) - It’s sometimes hard to plug your nose and take an ugly dog in the NFL but this spots absolutely warrants us siding with the Jets. Denver is in a tough spot coming off an emotional, come from behind win over a vastly overrated Eagles team. The Broncos outscored Philly 18-0 in the 4th quarter to squeak out a 21-17 win. That win doesn’t look all that impressive after the Eagles were trounced by the Giants on Thursday night. Not only that, Denver is now playing their 4th week in the last 5 away from home. On the other side, we should have a motivated Jets team off an embarrassing 37-22 home loss vs Dallas. The offense put up nearly 400 yards in the loss but the defense was shredded by a good Dallas offense. It looks like NY is in line to get some key starters back on defense after missing last week which will help. That fact is, winless teams gain value as we progress through the season and their “want to” is often quite high to try and get their first win and avoid further embarrassment. To that fact, 0-5 SU teams in game 6 have a spread record of 33-15 since 1980. This line is simply too high for this spot. Denver was just favored by the same number at home vs Cincinnati, who is currently the worst team in the NFL (per DVOA). The Jets were just a 1 point dog at home vs Dallas and @ Tampa Bay they were less than a TD dog and covered losing by 2 points. Now they are getting a TD+ in London vs Denver off a huge win? All of the Broncos games (minus Cincinnati) have been decided by 1 score including vs Tennessee (2nd worst DVOA team) at home. 3 of the Jets 5 losses have come by 6 points or less. New York actually has better numbers on both sides of the ball away from home this season. It’s sometimes best to get away from the negative vibe in NY and just play. We think NYJ keeps this one close.

#212 ASA PLAY ON Auburn +3.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Nice situational spot for the Tigers at home here. They are coming off back to back tight road losses vs high level opponents. They lost by 7 @ Oklahoma and by 6 @ Texas A&M and then had last week off. We haven’t been overly impressed with UGA this season. They are good, but not at the level they have been in recent years. They’ve been overvalued all season finally picking up their first cover of the season last week vs Kentucky (only by a half point). Not a huge win by any means as we have Kentucky rated as the worst team in the SEC as of now (0-3 in league play). In their 2 games vs upper tier SEC teams, UGA lost at home to Alabama and squeaked by Tennessee by 3 points in OT. In that win over the Vols, the Bulldogs ran 16 more offensive snaps yet only outgained UT by 7 yards. Auburn has taken their 2 upper tier SEC opponents to the wire on the road and now they finally get a conference home game. They’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country (7th SOS) yet still have a very good YPG, YPP, and YPC margins. Defensively the Tigers have been very solid this season holding every team they’ve faced to 24 points or less and that includes 2 teams that rank in the top 25 in total offense (A&M and Baylor). UGA has another huge revenge game on deck vs Ole Miss (lost 28-10 vs the Rebels last year) and they’ve been a terrible favorite since the start of last season going 3-12-1 ATS. Their last 11 games they’ve been tabbed a road favorite, UGA is just 2-8-1 ATS. This sets up nicely for Auburn to potentially pull the upset vs an overvalued Georgia team.

#172 ASA PLAY ON USC -2.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - USC is in a much better scheduling situation this week following a bye and playing a difficult slate prior to the week off. The Trojans last game was Sept 27th in Champaign where they lost 32-34 to the Illini. USC had played the latest game possible the week before at home, then traveled for an 11 AM CT start against Illinois. After that loss and a bye week we like them at home against the Wolverines. Michigan is coming off a pair of wins in conference play against Nebraska and Wisconsin, but those two teams aren’t in USC’s class. Wisconsin was down to their 3rd string QB last week and missing several offensive linemen. UM led 17-7 after three quarters before pulling away late 24-10. As usual, the Trojans have one of the best offenses in the nation averaging 565 total yards per game, 8.5 yards per play (1st), rushing for 6.4 yards per carry (4th) and passing for another 338 total yards per game (3rd). On paper this Michigan defense has some very good overall numbers but the best offense they’ve faced is Nebraska’s (47th in YPP at 5.8) who doesn’t compare to USC’s. Michigan’s two road games were a close 3-point win at Nebraska and an 11-point loss at Oklahoma. The Trojans are 7-2 SU their last nine home games with an average +/- of plus 21.2ppg. Lay it here with USC.

#158 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -14 over Kansas, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Texas Tech has been absolutely dominant winning every game by at least 24 points including road wins @ Utah and @ Houston. They are one of 5 teams in the country that average more than 7.0 YPP on offense while allowing less than 4.5 YPP on defense. They are elite on both sides of the ball. Best team money can buy so to speak as the Red Raiders have one of the highest funded programs in the country and the picked up a lot of key, experienced transfers. They have big edges on both sides of the ball. Kansas is solid offensive (40th in total offense) but their defense has left a lot to be desired this season (79th in total defense). The Jayhawks are also playing their 2nd straight road game after topping UCF on the road last week 27-20. It wasn’t overly impressive as KU had fewer first downs, had less total yardage, and the Hawks were outgained 5.1 YPC to 3.8 YPC on the ground. UCF led 14-0 in that game and lost their starting QB Jackson in the 3rd quarter. The only 2 teams Kansas has played this season that rank in our top 50 power rankings are Cincinnati and Missouri and they lost to both of those teams. The only comparable team to Texas Tech is Missouri and while KU “only” lost that game 42-31, they were outgained 595 to 254 in that loss and scored 1 of their TD’s on a fumble return. Not sure how Kansas slows down a Tech offense on the road that has tallied at least 552 yards in every game but 1. And in that game, they put up 484 yards on a very good Utah defense. On top of that, not sure how the Jayhawks put up big numbers to keep up here vs a Tech defense that hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in any game this season. Potential blowout here.

#162 ASA PLAY ON Missouri +3 over Alabama, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Bama is in a rough spot here having played back to back “all in” down to the wire type games vs Georgia and Vandy. The tipped the Bulldogs by 3 and last week’s 30-14 win over Vanderbilt was a bit misleading as the game was 20-14 midway through the 4th quarter (Bama scored final TD with 17 seconds left). The most concerning part of those 2 wins by the Crimson Tide is the fact they were beaten up pretty soundly in the trenches. In their game vs UGA they were outgained 6.9 YPC (rushing) to 3.3 YPC and last week vs Vandy they were outgained 7.6 YPC to 3.8 YPC on the ground. Now they face a Missouri offense that is humming ranking 6th nationally in total offense (548 YPG), 9th in scoring (45 PPG) and most concerning for the Tide is the Tigers can really run the ball ranking 4th nationally in rushing (292 YPG). The Tide rank 96th in YPC offensively and 104th YPC defensively while Mizzou ranks 13th and 10th in those categories respectively. Bama should again be at a disadvantage on both lines of scrimmage. While Alabama is off their 2 physical tilts, they are also playing their 2nd road game in 3 weeks while Mizzou is playing their 6th consecutive home game. On top of that, the 5-0 Tigers are coming off a bye week. In their 2 games vs solid FBS teams (South Carolina & Kansas), the Tigers destroyed those opponents in the stats outgained the Gamecocks by 163 yards and the Jayhawks by 339 yards. This team is good, rested, healthy, and motivated to get their first win ever over Alabama (0-5 lifetime).

#113 ASA PLAY ON East Carolina +6.5 over Tulane, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - ECU sits at 3-2 with losses vs BYU and NC State. They’ve been competitive in every game with the exception of their loss vs BYU (lost @ NC State by 7). Tulane is 4-1 with their lone loss coming in blowout fashion vs Ole Miss. Tulane has played the slightly more difficult schedule but ECU’s overall numbers are far superior. The Pirates rank in the top 30 nationally in both total offense and defense. The Green Wave ranks 68th in total offense and 103rd in total defense. ECU has a +1.1 YPP differential while Tulane is -0.2. ECU’s point differential is +17 PPG while Tulane is +2 PPG. The Pirates can definitely score enough to stay in this game as they average 30 PPG and are facing a Tulane defense that is the 2nd lowest rated total defense ECU has faced this season. The Green Wave relies heavily on the run averaging 41 rush attempts per game (28th nationally) but ECU has been stout on the ground allowing just 3.3 YPC (34th). On the other side, the Pirates average 315 YPG through the air (10th in the country) behind senior QB Houser who is completing 68% of his passes. The Tulane defense ranks 110th in pass defense allowing 251 YPG and 85th allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt. These teams have met 20 times since 1991 and Tulane has beaten ECU by more than 10 points only 3 times, so we expect another close game tonight.

#104 ASA PLAY ON UTEP +2.5 over Liberty, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Both of these teams step into this contest with 1-4 records. Our power ratings have UTEP as a slight favorite so we have some value with the home team in our opinion. For reference, in their most recent home game 2 weeks ago, the Miners were 3.5 points dogs vs La Tech who we have rated 12 points better than this Liberty team yet his line is nearly the same. UTEP lost that game 30-11, however they outgained La Tech but committed 5 turnovers. In their game prior to that, the Miners lost 31-25 vs UL Monroe and again outgained their opponent but lost the turnover battle 2-0. Head coach Scotty Walden is sticking with starting QB Nelson despite his recent struggles but he is very talented as a former 5 Star QB who has been at USC and Boise State. If he struggles again, this backup Locklear was the starter last year so he has experience. Liberty is playing their 4th road game in their last 5 and they’ve already lost 2 games outright as a favorite @ Bowling Green and @ Jacksonville State. The best unit on the field on Wednesday night will be UTEP’s defense. They rank 45th nationally in YPP allowed and 56th in total D. All of the other units (UTEP offense, Liberty defense, and Liberty offense) all rank outside the top 100 in total offense/defense and efficiency (YPP allowed and YPP gained). These 2 have played similar strength of schedules and UTEP and a positive YPG and YPP margin which Liberty is negative in both including. We’ll side with the Miners at home getting points in this one.

#483 ASA PLAY ON New England Patriots +9 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday 8:20 PM ET - This is a huge rivalry game within the Division and much like the Thursday night game with the 49ers/Rams, the points and dog are worth a look here. In fact, the underdog has covered 4 straight in the series and all four were decided by 7 or less points. Everyone is sky high on the Bills and their 4-0 record but did you notice the four wins have come against teams with a combined 2-14 SU record. Granted, they have insane offensive statistics ranking 2nd in total yards per game, 4th in yards per play, 1st in rushing yards per game and 6th in passing yards per game, but again consider the defenses they’ve faced. Even with that soft schedule the Bills defense is average in terms of yards per play allowed at 5.5, rank 31st in rushing yards per game allowed (164) and rank 11th in total yards per game given up. New England has played better than their 2-2 SU record and is coming off a complete game against the Panthers. The Patriots averaged 6.5YPP against the Panthers and held Carolina to 5.0YPP and 13-points. New England outplayed Pittsburgh the week before and lost, prior to that they won in Miami 33-27. The Pats are more than capable of keeping up in this game with an offense that ranks 10th in YPP at 5.9 and 14th in total yards per game gained. New England and Drake Maye average the 7th most passing yards per game and can challenge the Bills #1 ranked passing defense. The backdoor cover could be available in this one. Grab the points.

#478 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks -3.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 4 PM ET - First off, the situation definitely favors Seattle. They played last Thursday at Arizona (23-20 win) so they have had 10 days to prepare and rest. Tampa is playing their 3rd road game in the first 5 weeks and have to travel about as far as you can travel in this league for this one. The Bucs are a bit fortunate to be 3-1 on the season as their first 3 wins all came with a score in the last minute of play. They beat Atlanta with a TD with under 1:00 minute left, beat Houston with a TD with 6 seconds left, and beat the Jets with a FG as time expired. Last week they lost their first game of the season vs Philadelphia. The Eagles got out to a 24-3 lead in that game and held on for a 31-25 win. The Tampa offense hasn’t been clicking early in the season ranking 22nd in YPP, 16th in YPC (rushing), and 23rd in yards per pass attempt. They will be missing their top 2 offensive weapons in this game with WR Evans and RB Irving both injured. Their other WR Godwin just returned from an injury (hadn’t played since week 7 last year) last week and wasn’t overly effective (3 catches in 10 targets) as he works his way back. We don’t see a path to success here offensively for the Bucs missing those 2 guys and facing a Seattle defense that ranks #2 DVOA and allowed only 1.46 points per drive which is 2nd best in the NFL. Seattle’s offense has been a surprise ranking 9th in YPP and 6th in scoring at 28 PPG with veteran QB Darnold having another good season. Because they’ve been solid on both sides of the ball, Seattle’s YPP margin is +1.2 which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Their only loss was a 17-13 setback vs the Niners when SF was healthy. It took a late SF TD (1:30 left) to win that one otherwise Seattle is undefeated. Let’s lay it here.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Denver Broncos +4.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Eagles are 4-0 but their metrics say this is a 2-2 team at best. They’ve been outgained both YPG and YPP in every game this season. Their YPP margin is -1.2 which ranks 28th in the NFL and they are getting outrushed 3.5 YPC to 4.8 YPC. Last week they won with 200 total yards and they didn’t complete a pass in the 2nd half. They rank 30th in the NFL in total offense and Philly is getting outgained by an average of 82 YPG. Two weeks ago they trailed the Rams 26-7 in the 2nd half a pulled out a win with a blocked FG attempt returned for TD as time expired (we were on Rams ughh!). This team can’t continue winning the way they are playing this season. They are going to get clipped soon and we think it’s this weekend. Denver is off an easy 28-3 win over a bad Cincy team but dominated with +20 first down differential and over 500 yards of offense. The Broncos are close to being 4-0 as well (2-2 right now) as their 2 losses came @ LA Chargers by 3 and @ Indianapolis by 1 (2 playoff caliber teams) and they led both games in the 4th quarter. While Philly has a number of negative differentials we’ve discussed the Broncos are +0.9 YPP, +70 YPG, and +1.0 YPC (rushing). The Denver defense is one of the best in the NFL ranking 2nd in scoring D and in the top 10 in total D and YPP allowed. They should have plenty of success facing an Eagle offense that ranks 29th or lower in total offense, YPP, rushing YPC, and passing offense. We think Denver has a great shot at winning this game but even if not, getting above +3 is key as both of their were by a FG or less. We’ll take the points here.

#370 ASA PLAY ON Florida +6.5 over Texas, Saturday 3:30 PM ET - Florida is in a desperate spot here having lost 3 straight games and a marquee win over the Manning/Longhorns would go a long way in restoring the Gators confidence. Florida was embarrassed by Miami last week 7-26 as an +8.5-point road dog and are now catching a similar number at home which doesn’t add up. Texas has faced one stiff test this season and failed at Ohio State in the opener. Since that game the Longhorns have faced San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston State who all rank 106th or worse in SP+. Florida on the other hand has faced the 2nd toughest schedule in the country which will have them prepared for this showdown. We also feel the Gators are better than the numbers would suggest. They were clearly in a lookahead spot when they lost to South Florida with LSU on deck. Not to mention USF isn’t a bad team and it was their Super Bowl playing the instate Gators. Against LSU, the Gators were +13 in first downs, were plus in total yardage and had a +15 minute time of possession advantage but QB Lagway threw 5 INT’s. Last week Florida looked horrible against the Canes and that stinging defeat should provide motivation this week against the Horns. Longhorns QB Manning struggled against the only real defense he’s faced of the Buckeyes and he could struggle in this environment of the Swamp. Florida has been a home dog just 10 times in the past 5 years and have covered 7 of those games with a +2.5-point average scoring differential. Grab the points.

#374 ASA PLAY ON Purdue +9.5 over Illinois, Saturday 12 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this selection as the Illini are in a tough spot off two huge emotional games at Indiana, then home against USC, facing Purdue with Ohio State on deck. That’s not all, the Boilermakers were off last week and have had two full weeks to prepare for Illinois. If you compare each team’s season statistics side-by-side there are many similarities and Illinois does not have enough separation to warrant this spread. The Boilers have faced Notre Dame and USC this season and despite lopsided final scores they played well offensively in both with 379 total yards against the Irish and 354 versus the Trojans. The Illini defense has some holes as shown in their games against USC and Indiana. USC just shredded them for 490-total yards at 6.2YPP and Indiana roasted them for 63-points, 579 total yards at 8.0YPP. This Purdue passing attack is more than capable of trading points with the Illini and should keep this game close throughout, much like last year in the 50-49 OT Illini win.

ASA Las Vegas Aces -3 vs. Phoenix Mercury, 8pm ET - The Aces got off to a rough start to the season after a roster overhaul but then finished the season red hot with 16 straight wins to end the regular season. They have a strong history at home and even with a slow start this season they went 17-5 in Vegas with an average plus/minus of +5.8ppg. The Aces won the regular season series with the Mercury 4-1 with a 3-0 home court advantage and an average margin of victory in those games of +5.5ppg. Phoenix made some dramatic roster changes themselves this season and it’s certainly paid off but this opener is going to be a tough assignment for them. Phoenix did knock off New York and Minnesota in the first two rounds of the playoffs but spreads for the Mercury on the road were +5 at NY, +9.5 and +7.5 at Minnesota. The Aces are laying a much lower number here and finished the last two months of the season as the best team in the W. Wilson and the Aces get a 6 or more point home win in the opener.

#308 ASA PLAY ON Delaware -2.5 over Western Kentucky, Friday at 7 PM ET - Delaware has been a bit of a surprise with a 3-1 record and their only loss coming @ Colorado. They are in a great spot here at home coming off a bye after rolling FIU 2 weeks ago 38-16 on the road. Western Kentucky is in a much tougher spot playing their 2nd of back to back road games. The Hilltoppers won @ Missouri State (first year in FBS) 27-22 last week as a 4 point favorite. Missouri State lost their veteran QB Clark (3 year starter) in the first half and were still able to take WKY to the wire. The Bears dominated the ground game with over 200 yards rushing on 6.3 YPC. That’s been a problem for the Hilltopper D all season long as they rank outside the top 100 in rushing defense and YPC allowed. The Blue Hens should have success on the ground here as they’ve run the ball very well over their last 2 games with almost 400 yards on the ground combined. Huge home game for the Hens as this is their first ever Conference USA home game. The situation heavily favors the host and with the number under a FG, we’ll lay it.

#260 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -2 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Atlanta sits at 1-2 and this is a huge game for them as they face Buffalo next and then 2 of 3 on the road after that. Last week’s 30-0 loss @ Carolina was one of the crazier box scores we’ve seen in quite some time. Final stats looked like this…Falcons 332 total yards, Panthers 224 total yds. Falcons 5.0 YPP, Panthers 4.1 YPP. Falcons 5.7 yards per rush, Panthers 3.7. Final score Panthers 30, Falcons 0. Turnovers are usually an issue when you see a box score like this and they were. Atlanta had 3 turnovers, including a pick 6, that led directly to 14 of Carolina’s 30 points. The Falcons crossed midfield on 7 of their 11 offensive possessions and didn’t score a single point. Their other games were vs Tampa Bay, a 23-20 loss when the Bucs scored a TD with under 30 seconds left, and a dominating 22-6 win @ Minnesota. The Birds have much better stats than their 1-2 record would indicate. They have a +111 YPG differential, +0.6 YPP differential, +0.6 YPC (rushing) differential and a +0.5 yards per pass attempt differential. Those numbers almost always equate to a very good record. Atlanta had been unlucky scoring a point for every 24 yards gained which is last in the league. We expect that to push more toward the norm (1 point for every 15 yards gained) moving forward. Washington is off a huge win over Las Vegas 41-24 but caught the Raiders in a perfect spot (east coast week 1, back home for late Monday night game, and back to east coast vs Washington). They played that game without QB Daniels and he will sit again here along with top WR McLaurin. Back up Mariota is solid but still only has a 35-40 career record as a starter. Washington’s 2 wins have come vs Las Vegas and NY Giants who have a combined record of 1-5. Atlanta’s defense has been very good ranking 2nd in total defense and 4th in YPP allowed. They should be able to slow down this Washington offense with a back up QB. This is a much bigger game for the Falcons and we like them to win by at least a FG.

#251 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET – Game in being played in Ireland - Both these teams are 2-1 on the season but there is a drastic difference in key stat margins. The Vikings have a +25 point differential while Pittsburgh’s is -5. Minnesota has a +0.9 YPP differential and a +0.3 YPC (rushing) differential. The Steelers have a -1.3 YPP differential and a -1.5 YPC differential. Pittsburgh has been outgained on a YPG and YPP basis in all 3 of their games this year and they are already -417 in total yardage through 3 games. They’ve been very fortunate with a +5 turnover margin in their 2 wins. They rank 30th in total offense and 26th in total defense. The only other team in the NFL that ranks in the bottom 7 in both total offense and total defense are the Tennessee Titans. This Pittsburgh team has the stats of an 0-3 team. Minnesota is coming off a 48-10 home win over Cincinnati last week (we were on the Vikings). While they did have some big time help with the Bengals committing 5 turnovers, the Vikes still averaged over 6.0 YPP so the offense was playing well. Veteran QB Carson Wentz stepped in and played well for the injured JJ McCarthy. We think this is an upgrade short-term as Minnesota was struggling with McCarthy under center (5.2 and 4.3 YPP in their first 2 games). The Viking defense has been really solid and will easily be the best unit on the field in this game. They rank 6th in total defense, 7th in YPP defense, and 3rd in pass defense. They have allowed a TD on just 11% of opponent possessions which is the best mark in the NFL. The Pittsburgh offense has yet to top 271 total yards and QB Rodgers has been below average ranking 23rd in QBR. They’ll struggle offensively vs this Minnesota defense. The favorite in NFL overseas games are 32-18 ATS and we like Minnesota laying under a FG.

#179 ASA PLAY ON Marshall +1.5 over Louisiana Lafayette, Saturday at 8 PM ET - ULL has some major concerns at the quarterback position after the loss or QB Walker Howard, who was injured in the season opener against Rice. Daniel Beale has filled in but has been less than effective with 313 total passing yards on 50.7% completions with 1 TD and 2 INT’s. The O-line doesn’t help matters as they are one of the worst in the nation when it comes to efficiency stats with a sack percentage allowed of 7.23% (96th). The Cajuns are scoring just 17.7ppg, rank 129th in total yards per game (267) at 4.8 yards per play (107th). ULL is coming off a road loss to Eastern Michigan who rates significantly lower in our ratings compared to Marshall. The Herd are coming off an impressive 42-28 win at Middle Tennessee State with QB Del Rio-Wilson completing 18/22 passes for 261 yards and 4 TD’s. Marshall averaged 6.1YPP in that game against MTU and outgained the Blue Raiders by 75-total yards. The Herd are averaging 180 rushing yards per game (58th) this season and will face a ULL defense allowing 215 rushing yards per game (129th). The Cajuns strength is also running the football at 199ypg, but the Herd defense allows the 35th fewest rushing yards per game at 102.5 and we already discussed their passing woes. Marshall went to Louisiana last season as a 5-point underdog and won 31-3, outgaining ULL by 155 total yards. This one may be just as ugly. Take the road team.

#161 ASA PLAY ON Arizona +6.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This is going to be a much tighter game than the oddsmakers are suggesting. These are two very even teams statistically even though the Cyclones have faced a tougher schedule. The one common opponent on each team’s schedule was a game against Kansas State. ISU faced K-State in the season opener and won 24-21 despite getting outgained 393 total yards to 313 yards and 4.2 yards per play to 6.8YPP. Arizona just faced Kansas State and won 23-17, completely dominating K-State with 412 yards compared to 193, had 13 more first downs in the game and a +13 minute time of possession advantage. UA’s QB Fifita has been exceptional going 35/55 for 551 yards, 6 TD’s and 0 INT’s. Arizona has solid balance on offense averaging 189 rushing yards per game, 248 passing which both rank in the top 54 in college football. They are gashing opponents for 6.5YPP which ranks 39th. ISU is 80th in total yards per game gained at 383ypg and are middle of the pack in rankings in both rushing and passing offensively. Defensively both teams grade out relatively even with Arizona having better overall numbers, but they’ve also faced one less opponent than Iowa State and have faced weaker competition. ISU has two injured kickers which could be a concern in what should be a very close game. Grab the points.

#176 ASA PLAY ON Ole Miss -1.5 over LSU, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We think LSU is a bit overvalued right now. Their 2 “big” wins over Clemson (by 7) and Florida (by 10) don’t look all that great anymore. Clemson now sits at 1-3 on the year with losses to Ga Tech and Syracuse while Florida was destroyed last week by Miami FL. To quicky compare, LSU faced Florida 2 weeks ago and won 20-10. The Gators actually outgained the Tigers but had 5 turnovers. LSU only scored 13 offensive points as one TD was a pick 6. Last week, Florida was dominated by Miami with only 7 first downs and 141 total yards. The LSU offense has not been impressive. They’ve scored 17 vs Clemson, 23 vs La Tech and 20 (actually 13 on offense) vs Florida. They can’t run the ball ranking 112th in rushing. Are they going to be able to keep up here? Ole Miss ranks 9th in total offense and they sit in the top 25 in YPP, rushing, and passing while average 45 PPG. The strength of schedule is almost identical for these 2 undefeated teams yet Ole Miss has better YPG, YPP, YPC (rushing), and point differentials. The Rebels have been waiting for this one. They lost @ LSU last season 29-26 in OT with the Tigers sending the game to OT with a TD in the last 30 seconds of regulation. Ole Miss had the better stats in that game (464 yards to 421 for LSU) and head coach Lane Kiffin was flustered after that loss. “This was like, our game. We had the game and let it slip away. To go into the bye 6-1, or whatever it is, in really good shape and get healthy, would have been great. This one will be hard. It will be around forever.” Tough to beat this team at home where they’ve won 27 of their last 30 games. With this number currently sitting at -1 and -1.5 basically all we need is a home win. Let’s take the Rebels.

#914 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET - The Yankees have not only won 6 straight games and 9 of 10 and 12 of 15, they also have been frequently winning by a margin. In fact, 27 of the Yankees last 31 victories have all come by a margin of at least 2 runs! All signs point to another blowout here. Baltimore's Tomoyuki Sugano has given up some big runs in 4 of his last 5 starts including getting roughed up by the Yankees in his most recent start. So this will not be an easy task for him as Sugano again faces a red hot Yankees lineup. As for Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler, he has been pitching very well this season and has produced well in almost all his starts! The rookie hurler has allowed 1 earned run or less in 6 of his last 8 starts! Also, this included dominating Baltimore in his most recent start! While the Yankees have been red hot, the Orioles have lost 8 of 14 and 10 of the last 11 Baltimore defeats have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. That being said, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting another home blowout here! We are getting some excellent value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a pick'em price with the Yankees here. Lay the 1.5 runs with the Yankees Saturday!

#126 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +4.5 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 12 PM ET - These 2 are meeting for the first time ever and this line is off in our opinion. Our power ratings have ND as a slight road favorite in this game. That may even be too hefty as well as Bill Connelly’s respected SP+ rankings have these teams dead even on a NEUTRAL field meaning Arkansas would be favored at home. For comparison, the Razorbacks were a 4 point dog @ Ole Miss 2 weeks ago and now are getting more points, at home, vs a team we have ranked 13 spots higher than ND in our power rankings. The Irish are overvalued right now despite their 1-2 record. Arky is 2-2 with back to back losses @ Ole Miss 41-35 and @ Memphis 32-31 in a massive letdown spot. They fumbled deep inside their opponents territory late in the game in BOTH games driving for the winning score so they could easily be sitting 4-0. The Razors outgained Ole Miss and Memphis in their losses and their offense ranks 8th nationally at 552 YPG and 5th at 8.1 YPP. They are very balanced ranking in the top 20 in both rushing and passing offense while averaging 43.5 PPG facing an Irish defense that is allowing almost 33 PPG (117th). They should have lots of success vs a Notre Dame defense that has dropped way off from last year ranking 99th in the country in YPG allowed and 95th in YPP allowed. Last year’s DC Al Golden leaving for the NFL was obviously a huge loss for this team. The Irish are one of the worst pass defenses in the nation (132nd) and they struggled big time at home vs Texas A&M’s mobile QB Reed who had 360 yards passing and averaged over 5.0 YPC. Arkansas QB Green has been fantastic with 1,200 yards passing, 12 TD’s and 360 yards rushing already this season. Arky is 24-17 ATS (58.5%) as a home dog since October of 2008 and we think they have a great shot at the outright win in this one.

ASAwins #110 Oregon State +13.5 vs. Houston, Friday 10:30pm ET - If you are a value bettor and someone who bets numbers, not teams, then this play is for you. Oregon State is not in the best scheduling situation here as they are coming off instate rival Oregon and Houston is off a bye, and the number has been over-inflated as a result. The Beavers have faced the toughest schedule in the nation and are 0-4 SU. The Cougars are 3-0 SU with their toughest game at home against Colorado. Take a look at the spreads on the Beavers home games this season. They were +2.5 at home against Cal and -1-point versus Fresno State. Granted, they lost both of those games but the value in the number compared to this number with Houston is glaring. The Cougars rate about 6.5 points better than both Fresno and Cal which suggests this line should be slightly higher than a touchdown here, not almost 2 full TD's. Oregon State lost by 9-points at home to Fresno but actually outplayed them with 528 total yards of offense to 318, 30 FD’s compared to 15 and held a 15 minute time of possession advantage. Another great comparable is Houston’s game at Rice where the Cougs were favored by -14-points. Rice is one of the worst teams in college football ranking 143 per Sagarin’s. Houston did beat Rice 35-9 but the score was worse than the final statistics in that game. The Cougars have a HUGE game on deck against Texas Tech and will certainly be looking forward to that game and overlook this winless Oregon State team.

ASAwins WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -3.5 at Phoenix Mercury, 9:30PM ET - The conspiracy handicapper is coming out in me today and there is no way the WNBA doesn’t get a Finals with the best team in the league, the Lynx in it. Minnesota led by 20-points midway through the 3rd quarter last game and blew that big lead before losing in OT. The Mercury shot above expectations from beyond the arc and the Lynx shot below them. Phoenix plays great defense holding opponents to 42.3% shooting overall and 31.5% from Deep. The problem for the Mercury is that the Lynx are better defensively holding teams to 42.1% FG% overall with the best Defensive Net rating in the league. The big separator comes offensively for both teams. Minnesota has the best Offensive Net rating in the W, the Mercury are 7th. Phoenix is the 9th worst shooting team in the league, 6th in 3PT%. In comparison the Lynx are the best shooting team overall and 3PT% team so we don’t see a repeat of their 25% 3PT% in this elimination game. Minnesota is 15-8 SU on the road this season with an average plus/minus of +5.8ppg, best differential in the league. Minnesota was robbed last year in the Finals and they won’t blow this opportunity to win it all in 2025. Lay the points here with the Lynx who have won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Mercury.

French Ligue 1 Soccer #203202 ASA PLAY ON Strasbourg +0.5 (-120) over Marseille, Friday at 2:45 ET - Of course we can not bad-mouth Marseille as they just beat PSG and they are justified in being favored here. However, we do feel that this has opened up exceptional value on the goal line at plus a half goal with the home underdogs in what we perceive to be a very tight match and also one in which we expect an upset.  This is a very tough spot for Marseille. They are on the road and off a huge upset after knocking off PSG by a 1-0 count in a hard-fought battle. Ironically Strasbourg beat Marseille by that same count the last time they met here and that is the only victory in the last 6 meetings between these clubs.  That means if  you had Strasbourg at +0.5 goals in each of their last 6 meetings with Marseille you would be 6-0 last 6!  Strasbourg is 4-1 in league action including 2-0 at home.  Marseille is 3-2 in league action but 0-2 on the road.  So if you had the home team in all 5 Marseille matches in French Ligue 1 you would be 5-0 thus far on the season in their games!  That trend continues here as this is the perfect situational spot for the home dog.  This one has upset potential written all over it and, if not, at least a draw in which case we also cash this bet! We will take Strasbourg on the goal line (+0.5) in this one.

ASAwins WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -7.5 vs Phoenix Mercury, 7:30 PM ET - The Lynx won by 13 in the opener of this series and we feel its going to get worse for the Mercury before it gets better. Minnesota had a scheduling advantage going into that game as they beat Golden State in 2 games in round 1 of the playoffs. The Mercury on the other hand were coming off a big upset of the Liberty in a 3-game series. The Mercury were solid on the road this season with a 13-11 SU record and an average loss margin of -1.6ppg. The Lynx average +/- at home was +13ppg, the highest differential in the league. Phoenix plays great defense holding opponents to 42.3% shooting overall and 31.5% from Deep. The problem for the Mercury is that the Lynx are better defensively holding teams to 42.1% FG% overall with the best Defensive Net rating in the league. The big separator comes offensively for both teams. Minnesota has the best Offensive Net rating in the W, the Mercury are 7th. Phoenix is the 9th worst shooting team in the league, 6th in 3PT%. In comparison the Lynx are the best shooting team overall and 3PT% team. In the last two meetings the Lynx have held the Mercury to 13% 3-point shooting and 27%, with both games resulting in double-digit wins by the Lynx. We like at 10+ point win by the home team.

#479 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions +4.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Both these teams are 1-1 and have played almost identical strength of schedules. The Lions lost @ Green Bay (possibly the best team in the NFC) and beat Chicago handily. The Ravens lost @ Buffalo (possibly the best team in the AFC) and beat Cleveland handily. Baltimore has actually been outgained in both of their games this season including last week at home vs Cleveland. They won that game 41-17 but that was a very misleading final score as the Browns had 323 total yards to 292 for the Ravens and the YPP numbers were about dead even. The Ravens had a fumble return for a TD in that game and 3 of their 4 offensive TD’s were drives of 36 yards or less. The ground heavy Ravens rushed for only 45 yards in that game. Detroit is off a 52-21 win over Chicago, a game where they averaged nearly 9 YPP. The Lions rank in the top 10 in both total offense and total defense. The Ravens are a top 5 offense but their defense currently ranks 31st in the NFL ahead of only the NY Giants. The Lions have been great as a dog covering 10 of their last 12 in that role and head coach Dan Campbell is a money making 54-30-2 ATS in his career with Detroit. The Lions were +1.5 @ Green Bay in week 1 and now their getting +4.5 @ Baltimore? Lions can do enough offensively vs what looks like a poor Baltimore defense to keep this close and possibly pull the upset. Too many points.

#471 ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +7.5 vs Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Saints are 0-2 on the season but they’ve been very competitive in their 2 games vs playoff quality teams. They lost in week one 20-13 vs Arizona and last week 26-21 vs the Niners. They played the Cardinals basically dead even when it comes to YPP and their YPP margin is -0.2 for the season which is much better than most were anticipating after facing 2 quality opponents. QB Rattler has caught on nicely to Kellen Moore’s offense (former Dallas and Philly OC) with 3 TD’s and no turnovers on the season. The New Orleans defense has also played very well under new DC Staley (former LA Charger head coach) allowing only 4.8 YPP which is top 10 in the NFL. Seattle is 1-1 with a home loss to San Francisco and road win @ Pittsburgh. The disparity in the stats was interesting as they were dominated by the Niners (outgained by 154 yards) and dominated the Steelers outgaining Pitt by 128 yards. Their win at Pittsburgh last week might not be as impressive as we thought as the Steelers struggled to beat the NY Jets in week 1 and got outgained by 1.4 YPP in that win. The Jets followed that up by getting destroyed on the scoreboard and in the stat sheet at home vs Buffalo. Seattle has a look ahead spot as well facing NFC West rival Arizona next week. After 2 games the Saints are actually have a positive YPG differential while the Seahawks are sitting at -25 YPG. Teams that start the year 0-2 SU, have their backs against the wall in week 3 and have performed very well. Teams that are underdogs in that situation have a spread record of 37-17 (almost 70%) since 2017. We expect the Saints to hang in this game and with the number sitting more than a TD, we’ll take the points.

#461 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams +3.5 vs Philadelphia, Sunday at 1 PM ET - A rematch of last year’s NFC Divisional round of the playoffs with Philly winning at home 28-22. The Rams actually outgained the Eagles 402 to 350 in that loss but had 2 key turnovers. Philly went onto destroy Washington and KC in their next 2 games to win the Super Bowl. Both teams are 2-0 on the season but we’ve been unimpressed with the former Super Bowl Champion Eagles. They were outgained in both of their wins in total yards and YPP. Last weekend they were -1.5 YPP vs the Chiefs and still came away with an unlikely 20-17 win. Their opening week they were at home vs the Cowboys and won by 6 in a game where they were outplayed. The offense has not looked good failing to get to 5 YPP in either game this season. Philly is getting outgained by 1 YPP (which is significant) after 2 games. QB Hurts isn’t a put a team on my shoulders and pass them to a win type signal caller and they rely heavily on the run (2nd in carries per game this year and 1st last year). Problem is they are only averaging 3.9 YPC (20th in the NFL). Now they face a Rams D that is allowing 4.3 YPP (3rd in the NFL) and held them to 350 yards last season when Philly was absolutely rolling on offense. LA put up 33 points and 440 yards (7.4 YPP) on a very solid Tennessee defense last week that held Denver to 4.5 YPP a week earlier. QB Stafford is clicking with 543 yards passing on 71% completions thus far. The Rams have covered 7 in a row on the road and they are an “under the radar” 13-4 SU since mid October of last year. Let’s take the points here.

ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The battle of the back up quarterbacks, Jake Browning for the Bengals and Carson Wentz for the Vikings. That will be the headlines for that game, but the reality is the Vikings defense is by far the best unit in this game and will be the difference. In fact, we grade the Vikings change at QB to be a positive for Minnesota as JJ McCarthy has really only played well in one quarter. Did Vikings HC O’Connell maybe see this happening in training camp but they had to save face and start McCarthy? The Bengals offense is 30th YPG at just 245 and rank 29th in YPP at 4.5. Last week Browning replaced the injured Borrow early on and went 21/32 for 241 passing yards and 2 TD’s. The problem was a pair of big INT’s which nearly cost the Bengals the win. Browning has just 21 games experience and in that time has thrown 10 INT’s. Carson Wentz could give the Vikings a ‘bump’ with a veteran QB running the show. Wentz has 98 career games under his belt and could benefit from O’Connell (see Sam Darnold last season) and revive his career. Minnesota had the 2nd best DVOA ranking in 2024, the Bengals were bottom six. Cincinnati has OK defensive numbers in two games this season, but they’ve faced the Browns and Jaguars, neither are great offensive teams. Cincinnati is 2-0 and could very well be 0-2 and have won with smoke & mirrors the first two weeks. Minnesota should bounce back after a loss last week.

#345 ASA PLAY ON UTSA -4.5 at Colorado State, Saturday at 9:30pm ET - Colorado State has been gouged by opponents rushing attacks this season allowing 173 Rushing Yards Per Game at 4.1 Yards Per Carry. These numbers come against FCS Northern Colorado (1-9 SU their last 10 games) and Washington. Washington wasn’t even good rushing the football in 2024, ranking in the 99th in total rushing a year ago. CSU ranked 84th last season in stopping the run, allowing an average of 164.3 YPG rushing. UTSA will have no problems running the ball against this defense with an offense that is averaging 6.0 Yards Per Play, runs for 217 YPG and 6.4 Yards Per Carry. The Roadrunners (one of the best mascots in college sports) ran for 203 yards against an SEC opponent in Texas A&M back in week 2. Colorado State was favored by 35-points last week against No. Colorado and barely won 21-17 after trailing 0-10 at halftime. UNCO is one of the worst rated teams in FCS. The Rams really don’t do anything well offensively ranking 108th in total YPG (318) and Yards Per Play at 4.8. UTSA has been a road favorite just 3 times since the start of 2024 with a 1-2 ATS record BUT they’ve won those games by an average of +8.7PPG. This line should be north of -7 so grab the value with the Roadrunners over the Rams.

#359 ASA PLAY ON Arizona State +2.5 at Baylor, Saturday at 7:30pm ET - This is a great spot to back the Sun Devils who have a clear rushing edge in this game against the Bears. ASU is 21st in rushing at 232 YPG at a 6.1 YPC clip. These numbers are not a fluke as this team rushed for 200ypg in 2024-05 which was the 18th highest average in college football a year ago. The Bears defense has shown some cracks against the run this season allowing 188.3 YPG rushing (115th) and 4.4 YPC (94th). Granted, Baylor has faced a couple of good teams in SMU and Auburn, but those two teams were average in rushing a year ago. Baylor was underdogs at SMU and a +1-point home dog to Auburn. The Mustangs rate lower than ASU in our power rankings, Auburn is slightly higher than the Sun Devils. The Bears running game has averaged 149 YPG (85th) and 4.0 YPC (92nd) this season and that includes a 223-rushing yard game against Samford last week. Sticking to this rushing angle, ASU is allowing just 4.6 YPP (45th) overall, 2.7 YPC (21st) and 91 rushing yards per game (26th). That means with their base defense they will force the Bears into a one-dimensional offense. Arizona State has some questionable defensive passing statistics, but they are averaging 3.7 sacks per game (7th most) and can pressure Baylor QB Robertson (2 INT’s this season) into some errant throws. We are grabbing the points with the underdog that can dominate the time of possession with their potent rushing attack.

#332 ASA PLAY ON Duke -2.5 over NC State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Duke is 1-2 on the season while NC State is a perfect 3-0. Yet this line opened Duke -2 and moved to -3 very quickly. That speaks volumes and we agree with the move. NC State is on the road for the 2nd straight week after topping what looks like a bad Wake Forest team last week. The Wolfpack got down 14-0 but took advantage of Wake turnovers and won the game 34-24. Because of the Deacs giveaways (2 to 0 for NCSU), NC State was able to run 76 offensive plays to just 59 for WF. This is the same Wake team that nearly lost at home in their opener to a bad Kennesaw State team 10-9. For reference, Kennesaw joined the FBS level last season and they have a 3-12 record since then with 1 of those wins coming vs an FCS team. NCSU’s other wins were by 7 at home vs ECU and by 3 at home vs Virginia. In those wins they outgained East Carolina by only 10 yards and they were outgained by Virginia by 100 yards. The Devils are 1-2 and their 2 losses were vs top 10 ranked Illinois and last week @ Tulane (we were on Duke). The Blue Devils outgained both of those teams in those 2 losses and we think they are undervalued. They are in an absolute must win spot at home with 4 of their next 5 games coming on the road. Their outstanding QB Mensah already has over 1,000 yards passing and 8 TD’s this season. He’ll be facing an NC State defense that ranks 129th in pass defense, 107th in total defense, and 107th in YPP allowed. After 3 games, Duke has better YPP numbers both offensively and defensively and they’ve beaten the Wolfpack each of the last 2 years by 10 and 16 points. Duke is desperate and we think they are the better overall team despite the current record. Lay it.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -2.5 vs. Phoenix Mercury – 8pm ET - The Liberty have had an up-and-down season but still have a roster capable of winning it all this season. Injuries throughout the season certainly played a big role in their volatile play at times. They are now healthy, experienced in these situations and at home. New York is 17-5 SU at home this season after going 16-4 SU in the regular season last season, 6-1 in the playoffs. Phoenix has a solid roster led by Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper but New York exposed them in the first game of this series with a +17 rebound advantage. New York’s rebounding numbers this season are skewed because of their injury issues, let’s not forget this team was the best rebounding team in the league last season. New York is a wallet busting 5-16-1 AST in their last 22 games BUT in twelve of those ATS losses they were favored by 4 or more points. This is a great opportunity to buy low on the Liberty at home who had an average scoring differential of plus +7.0ppg at home in 2024, +7.7ppg in the playoffs last season and have a +9.6ppg average margin of victory at home this season.