#455 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +9.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - If you looked at the season long key stats for these 2 teams, you’d have no idea one of them is 4-2 and the other is 1-4. In fact, the team with the 1-4 record has been better in the stat sheet this year. The Titans have a YPP margin of +0.1 and they’ve outgained their opponents by an average of +5 YPG this season. The Bills have a YPP margin of -0.1 and they’ve been outgained by -41 YPG this season. The problem with Tennessee is their turnover situation. They have a -7 turnover margin this year which is 31st in the NFL. If they can avoid the giveaways here, we actually think they have a shot to pull the upset. It’s a great spot to fade Buffalo as they are on a short week off a huge division win on Monday night topping the Jets 23-20. Buffalo was outgained in this game by 0.7 YPP and this offense has not looked good as of late scoring 10, 20 and 23 points in their last 3 games. Not ideal for a team that is laying nearly double digits in this one. They are facing a Tennessee defense that most probably don’t realize is #1 in the NFL in total defense and YPP allowed. The Titans rank in the top 10 in both rush and pass defense. They have held every opponent but one to 17 points or fewer this season. 3 of Tennessee’s 4 losses have come by 7 points or less. It’s going to be tough for Buffalo’s struggling offense to pull away in this one. We’ll take the generous points in what looks to be a lower scoring game with the total set at 41.

#461 ASA PLAY ON Miami Dolphins +3 over Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Fins are off bye week and had a win heading into their time off so they have some momentum. The bye week was key giving newly acquired QB Huntley some more time to get acclimated to the system. It also gives a very good offensive HC McDaniel extra time to get a game plan ready with Huntley under center. Miami looks pretty healthy after their week off and they get starting RB Achane back in the line up for this one. They are facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL as the Colts rank 30th in total defense, 31st vs the run, and 26th vs the pass. The vibe in Miami is good right now as well as they still have a shot in a weak division and they expect starting QB Tagovailoa back soon, possibly next week. A win here gets them back to .500 and hosting Arizona next week. The Colts are starting Richardson at QB for this game which we prefer. Flacco was solid in his absence and gives them a better chance to win in our opinion. Richardson is dead last in the NFL completing only 50% of his passes. He’s facing a very good Miami defense that allows just 285 YPG which is more than 100 yards better than the Indianapolis defense. On top of that, the Colts are really banged up on offense with RB Taylor most likely out along with their top 3 WR’s currently questionable. The Colts haven’t been able to put anyone away this season with their 3 wins coming by 3, 3, and 5 points. Indy is off back to back division games and they face another division opponent (Houston) next week. We give Miami a solid shot at the upset here so we’ll take the points.

#400 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +3 over LSU, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great situational spot here for the Razorbacks at home.  They are coming off a bye week while LSU is off an OT, come from behind, win over Ole Miss last Saturday.  In that win vs Ole Miss the Tigers were outgained, only had 84 yards on the ground, and needed a long drive in the final 3 minutes (aided by two 4th down conversions) just to get to OT where they won 29-26.  This is a tough spot now going on the road vs a solid Arkansas team that had big momentum heading into the bye upsetting Tennessee here at home.  In their only true road game this season, LSU topped South Carolina 36-33, but trailed by 17 points in the first half.  They led for just over 2:00 total minutes in that win.  They probably should have lost that game along with their game vs Ole Miss last week which would have put them at a 3-3 record and we’re talking about a completely different line in this game if that was the case.  Even their lone loss this season, 27-20 vs USC, isn’t looking great as the Trojans are now just 3-3.  These 2 SEC rivals have played almost identical strength of schedules to date, yet Arkansas has the better point differential, YPG margin, and YPP margin.  We also like that the host should have a solid advantage on the ground with a +94 YPG rushing margin on the season while LSU is -4 YPG rushing this season.  Razor QB Green was banged up in his last game, a win over Tennessee, but looks like he’s ready to go coming off the bye.  The Razorbacks have covered 7 of their last 8 as a dog and head coach Pittman has covered 22 of his last 30 when getting points.  We’ll call for another on Saturday. 

#409 ASA PLAY ON Auburn +4 over Missouri, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Missouri is 5-1 on the season and ranked in the top 20.  Auburn is 2-4 on the season yet this line is only Mizzou -4.5 at home?  The Auburn Tigers are much better than their record this season.  Despite being 2 games under .500, Auburn has outgained their opponents by an average of +107 YPG and they have a +2.3 YPP margin.  That’s facing a very tough schedule to date (36th SOS) having already played Georgia, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  The problem with Auburn has been turnovers.  They are already -11 turnovers on the season which is dead last in the country.  If they can rectify that, this team is really quite good.  They rank in the top 35 nationally in both total offense and total defense.  Missouri has played a light weight schedule this season.  Their strength of schedule is ranked 111th which is the 2nd easiest at the Power 4 level ahead of only Indiana.  They’ve faced only 1 team this season power rated inside our top 50 and that was Texas A&M who rolled Missouri 41-10 outgaining the Tigers 512 to 254.  The only other 2 teams with a pulse that Mizzou has faced this year were home games vs Vandy (Tigers won in OT) and Boston College (Tigers won by 6).  Despite playing an ultra easy schedule, Missouri is just +1.1 YPP margin which is far worse than Auburn’s who has faced a much more difficult slate.  Auburn is coming off a bye week and they’ve won all 3 meetings vs Missouri.  If Auburn can keep their turnovers in check, they’ll have a great shot to win this game outright. 

#321 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma State +9.5 over BYU, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid line value with OSU here just based on recent spreads involving BYU.  The Cougars were just favored by -2.5 last weekend at home vs Arizona, a team that rates nearly identical to Oklahoma State in our power ratings.  BYU was favored earlier this year by 9.5 (same number as we have on Friday) at home vs a Wyoming team that is among the worst in the country.  In their most recent road game, OSU was a 6 point dog @ Kansas State (who was favored by 7 @ BYU earlier this year) and we have the Wildcats rated a full 6 points better than BYU on a neutral field.  You get the point.  OSU has played back to back terrible games which is the reason this line sits where it is.  The Cowboys were rolled by both Kansas State and West Virginia their last 2 contests but now had 2 weeks off to regroup and prepare for this one.  BYU is 6-0 both SU and ATS but they’ve been pretty fortunate.  Last week in their blowout win over Arizona, the yardage was about even but the Wildcats had 4 turnovers.  They topped Baylor by 6 a week earlier in a game that was also basically even yardage wise and the Bears were shut out on downs inside BYU territory late.  A week earlier they topped KSU but were outgained by 125 yards and helped by the Cats who had 3 turnovers.  9 takeaways by BYU in the last 3 games isn’t sustainable.  When these 2 met last year @ Okie State, the Cowboys were favored by 17 and now getting nearly 10?  That’s a 27 point swing in one year.  In a similar spot last year, the Cowboys were 2-2 coming off losses vs South Alabama and Iowa State heading into their bye.  Coming out of their bye week they beat Kansas State as an 11 point underdog, won 5 in a row and 7 of their last 9.  OSU head coach Gundy has been around a long time and is a solid head man.  He’ll have them ready here.  Take the points.

ASA play on NY Jets +1 vs. Buffalo Bills, Monday 8:20 PM ET - One of the bigger public Sports Books is carrying this line as the Bills favored by 1-point with an overwhelming number of bets and “Joe’s” money on Buffalo. When we see that we immediately look at the other side of the ticket. Buffalo is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd straight road game after facing the Ravens and Texans on the road. The Bills lost both of those games after starting the season 3-0 against subpar competition. We are betting the Jets will get a bump this week with the coaching change as Saleh wasn’t well liked in the locker room and new coach Jeff Ulbrich is. They should also be better offensively with a new play caller Todd Downing takes over for Nathaniel Hackett. We have seen a regression in the Bills offense the past two weeks facing solid defenses similar to the Jets. Buffalo’s offense could be limited tonight with WR Shakir and RB Cook both listed as questionable. The Jets have not run the ball effectively with RB Hall this season ranking last in the league in RYPG but that could change tonight versus a banged-up Bills defense that is 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 32nd in yards per rush allowed at 5.2. The home team has won 5 straight in this series, make it 6 after tonight.

#285 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Sometimes the obvious bet is right, which is the case tonight. Cincinnati is in a dire situation with a 1-4 start to the season and desperately needs a win this week. This Bengals team had high hopes and were a team predicted to potentially win the AFC North. This team is just a few years removed from playing in the Super Bowl and loaded offensively. The Bengals are better than their record with the 2nd rated offense in terms of DVOA and the 22nd defensively. In comparison the Giants are 17th in DVOA offensively, 19th in defense. Cincinnati lost to Kansas City and Baltimore, who we have rated as the top two teams in the NFL. They also have a loss to the 4-1 Redskins. New York is 2-3 SU and coming off a shocking road win in Seattle last Sunday as a 7-point underdog.  The Giants have lost twice at home this season and are just 15-19-1 SU at home since 2020 with a negative differential of minus -4.4PPG. The Giants will be without their top receiver again this week with Nabers out and are also missing their top edge rusher with Thibodeaux out. The Giants will have a hard time keeping up in this one against a Bengals team that has put up 33+ points in three straight games. With Joe Burrows under center the Bengals have covered 10 of their last fourteen as a road chalk. Lay it!

#281 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -6 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Now that the NFL teams have had a few weeks to settle in, we are starting to see the cream rise to the top and Atlanta is certainly trending up. Carolina on the other hand is not. The Panthers got a 1-game bump when QB Dalton took over for Bryce Young and won at Las Vegas but since then they have lost two straight. Let’s face it, the win over Vegas isn’t that impressive considering the disarray that franchise is in right now. The Panthers then lost by double digits to Cincinnati at home and at Chicago the next two weeks. Last week the Panthers defense gave up 36-points and 6.1 Yards Per Play to the Bears who are averaging just 22.2PPG and 4.4YPP on the season. Atlanta has faced a tough schedule to start the season but is coming off their best game of the season against Tampa Bay. The Falcons put up 36-points and averaged 6.5YPP offensively. Atlanta has a +0.9 Yards Per Play differential compared to the Panthers who have the 4th worst YPP differential of minus -1. Atlanta is 9th in offensive DVOA, 20th defensively, Carolina is 29th and 30th. The Panthers had a negative point differential of minus -10.6PPG last season, minus -7PPG when at home.

#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars +1 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - This game is being played at Tottenham Stadium on London.  The Jags are more than familiar with playing in London as they’ve already been their 11 times (6-5 SU record).  In fact, they face Chicago on Sunday, then stay in London to play New England next week as well.  We like the been there, done that, situation for Jacksonville vs a young Chicago team making their first trip overseas since 2019.  The Bears are 3-2 on the season but a bit of a fraud in our opinion.  Their wins have come vs Tennessee, LA Rams, and Carolina who have a combined record of 3-11 and Chicago was outgained in 2 of those wins.  As you might expect based on those wins, the Bears have played one of the easiest strength of schedules to date (30th) yet they are still getting outgained by 0.6 YPP (3rd worst in the NFL).  They’ve only outgained 1 opponent on a YPP basis this season and that was Carolina rates as one of the worst few teams in the NFL.  Jacksonville was considered by many a playoff caliber team entering the season.  They have disappointed with a 1-4 record, however they have a better YPP margin than the Bears and have played the much more difficult schedule thus far.  Three of their four losses have coming by 5 points or less and they have some momentum heading overseas after beating the Colts last Sunday.  The offense, which ranks 11th in YPP, looked better than it has all season in that win putting up 37 points on nearly 500 yards.  Head coach Doug Pederson took over play calling duties for that one and it showed on the field.  The Bears offense is averaging only 287 YPG and 4.4 YPP which is 29th in the league.  The Jags should control the trenches here with their +0.9 YPC margin vs Chicago’s -0.7 YPC margin.  QB Trevor Lawrence finally had a breakout game last Sunday with 370 yards passing giving him some much needed confidence heading into this one.  Our power ratings have Jacksonville as a small favorite here so we’ll grab the points with the Jags.

#196 ASA PLAY ON UCLA +4 over Minnesota, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Minnesota is in a really rough spot here making the long travel to California after upsetting USC in Minneapolis last week. The Gophers scored the game winning TD with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game to win 27-24. USC outgained Minnesota in the game but turned the ball over 3 times and missed a FG. Gopher head coach PJ Fleck went nutty in the locker room post game as if they had just won the National Championship. That ended a huge 3 game stretch for Minnesota facing Iowa, Michigan, then USC (they lost the first 2 games). We would expect a letdown in this game in which they are expected to win. We were down on UCLA entering the season but they’ve shown a lot of fight despite their 1-4 record. They have played the #1 rated strength of schedule in the nation and they get a bit of a reprieve here after taking on Indiana, LSU, Oregon, and Penn State over their last 4 games. Those 4 opponents have a combined record of 20-1 on the season. UCLA has covered 3 in a row by an average of more than a TD per game. Last week @ PSU, the Bruins lost 27-11 as 4 TD dogs, were only outgained by 62 yards and held the vaunted Nittany Lion rushing attack to just 85 yards on 2.8 YPC. They have not given up, playing hard vs a brutal schedule and now they catch Minnesota in a great spot to get picked off. Big 10 teams that have traveled at least 2 times zones in conference play this year (West coast teams to the Midwest or East or vise versa) are 1-8 SU this season. The last 4 times Minnesota has been a road favorite, they are 0-4 ATS and lost 3 of those games outright. UCLA keeps this close and has a great shot at the upset.

#124 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia +3.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This is a perfect spot for overvalued vs undervalued in our opinion. WVU is 3-2 on the season with losses vs Penn State and Pitt who have a combined record of 10-0. The Mountaineers weren’t overly competitive in week 1 vs PSU which is understandable vs a top 5 team. They blew a 10 point lead with less than 4 minutes remaining vs Pitt so this WVU team could easily be 4-1. ISU steps in with an undefeated record but they’ve played a much easier schedule. Their best win was 20-19 vs in-state rival Iowa, a game that ISU never led until their game winning FG with 6 seconds left in the contest. Their other wins have come vs North Dakota, Arkansas State, Baylor (2-4 record), and Houston (2-4 record). The Cyclones are stepping up in class here and laying a full FG on the road. WVU has some solid momentum and should be fairly rested here as they roasted Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week and the Mountaineers were coming off a bye for that one. They absolutely dominated the Cowboys outgained them 558 to 227, including 389 to 36 on the ground. Speaking of the ground, West Virginia has one of the best rushing attacks in the country averaging 239 YPG on 6.0 YPC. They should control the ground game vs an Iowa State defense that allowed 155 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC. Dating back to early in the 2021 season, ISU has been a road favorite 9 times and they have a 3-6 ATS & SU record in those games. They are overvalued here due to their perfect mark vs a weak schedule. We like WVU to win this game at home.

#194 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -13.5 over Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - These 2 teams are both 3-2 but there is no comparison when looking at how these teams have gotten to this point. Texas State is the FAR superior team. TSU’s 2 losses came at the hands of Arizona State (by 3 points) and Sam Houston State (by 1 point). The Bobcats outgained both of those teams in losing efforts and blew an 18 point second half lead vs SHSU and a 7-point second half lead vs ASU. Their stats are extremely impressive and scream undefeated team. Despite their 3-2 record, the Bobcats are +12.6 PPG, +125 YPG, and +2.8 YPP. Arkansas State has the same 3-2 record, yet their numbers in those key stats are -9.2 PPG, -78 YPG, and -1.6 YPP. While Texas State has outgained each of their 5 opponents, Arkansas State has been outgained in all 5 of their games. The Red Wolves actually rank outside the top 100 in both total offense and total defense. Their wins came vs FCS Central Arkansas by 3 points, Tulsa who has a 2-4 record, by 4 points, and South Alabama, who has a 2-4 record, by 2 points. We were on South Alabama last week and Arkie State kicked a FG with 10 seconds remaining to win the game. TSU played @ Troy last week and blasted the Trojans 38-17 outgaining them by 130 yards including 215 to 63 on the ground. Not only is Texas State the much better team in this match up, they have massive revenge involved. This is a game they’ve been waiting for. That’s because last season, TSU was favored @ Arkansas State and lost 77-31. You read that correctly. Believe it or not, the Bobcats actually outgained ASU 539 to 494 in that loss but had 4 turnovers (0 for ASU) in that game. Not only that, 3 of the turnovers were a fumble returned for a TD along with 2 pick 6’s. On top of that, Arkansas State also had a 93 yard kickoff return so 4 non-offensive TD’s in the game. We don’t think Arkansas State, who is averaging 21 PPG, can keep up here vs a motivated Texas State team that has already scored at least 34 points in 4 of their 5 games. Blowout expected here.

#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3 over California, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for the Golden Bears. This team will have a hard time getting up off the mat after blowing a huge lead at home vs Miami last week. Cal led the Canes by 20 points with just over 10 minutes remaining in game last Saturday and they lost 39-38. Miami scored 3 TD’s in the final 10:28 to get the 1 point win including the game winner with 28 seconds remaining. Now they have to make the long 2500 mile trip to Pittsburgh which will be the Bears 3rd trip to the east time zone since Sept 7th. That means this Cal team will have already traveled almost 13,000 miles in the last 5 weeks when they land in Pittsburgh for this game. Their devastating home loss vs Miami on Saturday actually wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. How the Bears pulled out to a 20 point lead is tough to comprehend as they were outgained by 205 total yards and had 18 fewer first downs. The Canes held a 15 minute time of possession edge and ran 86 offensive snaps which should lead the Cal defense running out of gas in this game, especially as the game wears on. While the Bears were blowing a huge lead at home, Pitt went into North Carolina and won 34-24 outgaining the Heels by over 100 yards. They won by 10 despite the Tar Heels scoring on an 86 yard pick 6 which was potentially a 14 point turnaround with Pitt going into score. The Panthers are now 5-0 with solid wins over UNC, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. It’s not a fluke the Panthers are undefeated as their stats have been dominant. On the season they are +20 PPG, +152 YPG, +2.3 YPP, and +2.9 yards per rush. Cal is 3-2 on the season and in those stats they are +8 PPG, +28 YPG, +0.7 YPP, and +0.2 yards per rush. One of their long road trips was a loss @ a bad Florida State team giving the Noles their only win so far this season. Pitt is at home and is full focused heading into a bye week. Easy win for the Panthers in this one.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -6 vs. Minnesota Lynx, Game 1 Thursday Oct 10th - Scheduling clearly favors the Liberty here who have been off for a week, while the Lynx will be playing their 3rd game this week. One thing we’ve learned this WNBA season is that depth is a huge concern for the majority of the teams in the league. It will be tough for Minnesota to get up again after their grueling 5-game series with the Sun. A demoralizing factor in this game will be the rebounding advantage the Liberty have. New York was 2nd in both offensive & defensive rebounds per game during the regular season and have continued to dominate the glass in the postseason. The Liberty have outrebounded their opponents in every playoff game and will limit the Lynx second chance opportunities. Minnesota in comparison is last in rebounding percentage in the playoffs. New York has been really good at home and has won by margin. The Liberty were 16-4 SU at home during the regular season with an average +/- of +7.0PPG. NY is 4-0 SU at home in the postseason with a +9.3PPG differential. Minnesota has beaten the Liberty 3 of four this season but this is simply a bad scheduling situation for them and will be tough to hang within double-digits.

ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +5.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Chiefs are undefeated but their point differential is just +20 (7th in the NFL). All 4 of their wins this season have come by a TD or less. KC has won 8 of last 9 dating back to last season but 7 of those 8 wins have been one score games so they are not pulling away from teams in their wins. KC’s overall stats are pretty darn average for a team that is 4-0. They are 15th in YPP margin at +0.2 and have outgained opponents overall by just +2 YPG. On top of that, the Chiefs have LOTS of injuries on offense missing their top RB as well as their top 3 WR’s entering the season. The Saints are now 2-2 so this is a bigger game for them. Their 2 wins were both blowouts, but their losses were each down to the wire losing by 3 vs Philly and by 2 vs Atlanta. In their 26-24 loss @ Atlanta last week, New Orleans outgained the Falcons but the Birds had 2 defensive TD’s in the game. Despite their 2-2 record, New Orleans has outgained 3 of their 4 opponents and they have a better YPP margin when compared to the Chiefs. The Saints have been a long term money maker on the road going 35-18 ATS away from home over the last 6+ seasons. Lastly, in MNF games when an AFC team faces an NFC team, the home teams have been terrible with a spread record of just 12-32-2 ATS (27.3%). We give the Saints a decent shot at the upset here but worst case we like them to keep this close.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Rams are really banged up right now and it shows in their performances this season.  They will again be without their top 2 WR’s Cupp & Nakua and their offensive still has issues.  Partly due to that, their offense has struggled scoring just 18.8 PPG while only averaging 5.2 YPP.  That’s not good when your defense can’t stop anyone.  LA ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.4 YPP and dead last in rushing defense giving up 165 YPG on the ground on 5.0 YPC.  That’s not a good recipe for success especially in this game vs a Green Bay offense that is averaging 175 YPG rushing which is 2nd in the league.  The Packers struggle offensively to start last week’s game which was expected at QB Love was back but had missed a few weeks prior.  However, in the 2nd half GB kicked it in gear and nearly won in a game they trailed 28-7 at half (31-29 final).  Once Love and the offense got comfortable and back in synch they tallied over 300 yards in the 2nd half alone.  We think they’ll pick up where they left off vs this suspect Rams defense.  LA is just not playing well right now.  They rank 31st in YPP differential ahead of only New England and they have been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this season.  The only team they outgained in the stats was Chicago last week which wasn’t a surprise as the Bears rank last in the NFL in YPP offense.  We like Green Bay to win this one by more than a FG.

#457 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Not sure why Jacksonville is favored by a full FG here (as of this writing on Friday).  They are the only winless team in the NFL and they’ve only won 1 of their last 9 games dating back to last season.  Jags QB Lawrence has been disappointing to say the least losing his last 9 times a starting QB and he ranks 23rd in the NFL this year in passing yards and QBR.  With their 0-4 record to start the season, Jacksonville’s chance of making the playoffs are basically nil and you have to wonder what their mindset is moving forward.  They have very little home field advantage with a 3-6 SU record since the start of last season.  The Jags are also just 16-32 as a home favorite dating back to the start of the 2008 season.  The Colts are 2-2 after topping previously undefeated Pittsburgh last week but their stats say they are better than that.  Their YPP differential is +0.7 which is the 8th best mark in the NFL (Jags are -1.0 YPP).  Looks like Indy will start Joe Flacco at QB (if not we’re good with Richardson under center as well) and we feel he might be a one game upgrade over Anthony Richardson.  We often see a one game surge from a team that loses their starting QB and Flacco came in last week after Richardson was injured vs a very good Pittsburgh defense and threw for 168 yards and 2 TDs.  We like Indy to keep this close and we’ll take the FG.

#330 ASA PLAY ON Coastal Carolina -5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - This is a fantastic spot to back CC and fade ODU. Coastal is coming off a bye-week and will be rested and have the perfect gameplan in place for the Monarchs. Old Dominion is coming off a last second win on the road at Bowling Green. ODU averaged just 5.1YPP against Bowling Green and needed a TD with just .24-seconds left to pull out the road upset. Old Dominion had lost three straight games prior with 19, 14 and 17 points offensively. Coastal Carolina was 3-0 SU prior to a loss to Virginia on Sept 21st. CC put up 390 yards in the loss to UVA but were minus -2 in TO’s. Virginia pounded Coastal on the ground with their rushing attack which ranks 30th in college football. ODU does not possess that type of rushing attack, and they may be down to their second-string QB here as their starter, Wilson, went out last game in the 3rd quarter. The Monarchs have one of the worst passing attacks in the country averaging just 145PYPG on the season with a completion rate of 53.10% which ranks 117th. Old Dominion has a negative point differential of minus -6.8PPG this season and were minus -7.4PPG on the road a year ago. Last year Coastal Carolina won at ODU 28-24 but they outgained the Monarchs by over 110 total yards. CC is 23-5 SU their last 28 home games. ODU has lost 14 of their last 20 road games by an average of minus -6PPG.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE (SBC) GAME OF THE MONTH: #387 ASA PLAY ON South Alabama -3 over Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Arkansas State has the better record at 2-2 while South Alabama sits at 2-3 yet we feel the Jaguars are the much better team in this match up.  Arkie State could easily be 0-4 on the season as their wins over Central Arkansas and Tulsa by 3 & 4 points respectively.  The Red Wolves were outgained 7.1 YPP to 5.0 YPP vs FCS Central Arkansas and 5.9 YPP to 5.3 YPP vs Tulsa.  They were extremely fortunate to come out with 2 wins in those games.  On the season Arkansas State had a YPG margin of -120, a YPP margin of -2.2 and a YPC (rushing) margin of -3.2.  Compare that to South Alabama who has a YPG margin of +21, a YPP margin of +0.4, and a YPC margin of +1.7.  The Jaguars should have a massive edge on the ground in this game 210 YPG rushing on 6.2 YPC vs a Arkansas State defense 234 yards on the ground (129th) on 6.0 YPC (131st).  The Wolves have been outgained by at least 1.8 YPC in all 4 of their games this season.  The South Alabama offense is potent and we don’t see ASU keeping up here.  They rank 19th nationally in total offense (470 YPG) and 21st putting up 7.1 YPP.  ASU ranks 104th and 125th in those 2 stats.  On top of that, we don’t see the Arkansas State defense making up for their offensive deficiencies here as they rank outside the top 100 in total defense and YPP allowed.  South Alabama has won 5 straight in this series and last year they were favored by 15.5 so getting them at -3 here is a bargain.  The Jags already proved they can get it done on the road beating App State 48-14 a few weeks ago and we have App State rated as a better team that Arkansas State.  Let’s lay this small number with South Alabama.

#378 ASA PLAY ON Connecticut -17 over Temple, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UConn is rolling right now to say the least.  They are coming off a 47-3 blowout win over Buffalo last week.  A week earlier they rolled FAU here at home 48-14.  In their 3 games at home the Huskies have scored 158 for an average of 52 PPG.  The 2 teams they just destroyed here we have both rated better than this Temple squad who we have rated in the bottom 10 nationally.  The Owls may be without their starting QB Simon who injured his shoulder in last week’s 48-14 home loss vs Army.  Their back up QB Brock has an injured wrist so there is a chance this bad Owls offense (119th in total offense) will be down to their 3rd string signal caller.  In their 2 road games this season, Temple has been outscored 89-14.  Their rush defense ranks 131st allowing 261 YPG on 5.9 YPC.  That won’t cut it here vs this UConn running game that is up to 12th nationally averaging 245 YPG and they’ve rushed for a ridiculous 1,300+ yards in their 3 home games.  UConn starting QB Evers left last week’s blowout win with an injury but back up Fagnano is a better passer and has played plenty this season.  He makes this offense even tougher to defend in our opinion.  He came in last week, let the Huskies to 34 of their 47 points, had over 200 yards passing and 3 TDs.  We were on UConn last week in an easy win and we’re not back off this money train this week.  They’ve covered their last 4 games by an average of 29 points above and beyond the spread and we anticipate another easy win on Saturday vs a bad Temple team.

#367 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +6.5 over UNLV, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some pretty good line value with the Orange in this game.  Our power ratings have UNLV favored by a FG here.  To put this number in perspective, last week the Rebels played host to Fresno State and they were favored by -2.5 to -3 range.  We have Cuse favored by a full TD over Fresno on a neutral field in our ratings.  Others we respect are in the same range.  This line has moved too much based on UNLV’s 59-14 win over Fresno.  While impressive, the fact is Fresno had 4 turnovers (0 for UNLV) which led to a number of very good offensive situations for the Rebels who scored TD’s on drives of 25 yards, 29 yards, a 90 yard punt return, and blocked punt return.  UNLV played with their back up QB Williams (transfer from Campbell) after their starter quit the team early in the week because of an NIL dispute.  Williams looked very good, but now Cuse has film on him and teams often get that one game, rally the troops, boost in this type of situation.  UNLV has faced one Power 4 opponent this year, Kansas, and while they won by a FG, the Rebs were dominated in the stats 6 YPP to 4.1 YPP, 6.4 yards per pass attempt to 4.8, and 5.7 YPC to 3.9.  That’s a Kansas team that is now 1-4 and the Jayhawks were favored by 9 in that game.  Now we have UNLV laying nearly a full TD in this one.  Syracuse rolled over Holy Cross and their lone loss was a 2 point setback vs Stanford in a game they outgained the Cardinal.  The Orange are one of the better passing teams in the nation (#3 averaging 372 passing YPG) and UNLV has struggled vs the pass (60th) despite only playing one QB who is a solid passing threat.  That was last week vs Fresno’s Mikey Keene who threw for over 300 yards on 66% completion rate.  We expect Syracuse QB McCord (former Ohio State starter) to have a big day and keep the Orange in this one all the way.  Take the points.

WNBA play on Minnesota -4 vs. Connecticut Tuesday, 9:30 PM ET - Off the home loss in Game 1, we like the Lynx to bounce back in Game 2 and even this series at 1-1. After two monster scoring games of 38, 42-points against the Mercury in the first round, Napheesa Collier, struggled in G1 versus the Sun with 19-points. As a team the Lynx struggled shooting at 42% overall and just 25% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly lower than their season averages of 44.8% overall and 38% from Deep (1st in WNBA). Granted, this Sun is a very good defensive team and that has something to do with the poor shooting night but you can bet there is an upward regression for the Lynx shooting in Game 2. The Sun also had an unusual great shooting night themselves in G1 by hitting 41% of their 3-pointers. They shoot just 32.7% on the season and the Lynx held opponents to 30.1%, best percentage in the W. Minnesota is 16-5 SU their last 21 home games with an average margin of victory of +7.5PPG. Minnesota is 23-8 SU their last 31 at home and have lost back-to-back games just twice this season.

#292 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3.5 over Seattle Seahawks, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Seattle comes into this game with a 3-0 record be we feel they are vastly overvalued early in the season.  They’ve played 3 cupcake games thus far and now are finally on the road vs a legit playoff type team.  They’ve played Denver with a rookie QB making his first ever start, @ New England (won in OT), and then vs Miami with Skylar Thompson at QB.  Their overall numbers, especially on defense, are not as good as they may seem.  Seattle ranks #1 vs the pass but again they’ve faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson.  Now they face Jared Goff at home where he has won 13 of his last 16 games and his home stats have been fantastic (70% completion rate last year with 19 TD’s).  In their only road game, Seattle struggled to slow down New England’s running game (185 yards on 5.1 YPC) and now they face a Detroit rushing attack that rates 4th in the NFL at 163 YPG.  Seattle is also really banged up on defense with potentially 4 starters out for this game and a few more in the 2 deep will have to sit as well.  One of Goff’s rare home losses was last year vs this Seattle team.  Detroit outplayed the Hawks averaging more YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempts but lost in OT.  The Lions turned the ball over 3 times in that OT loss (0 for Seattle) including a pick 6 which was the difference in the game.  A little extra motivation for Detroit in this one.  The line value is solid as Detroit was favored by 5 here last year, they were favored over playoff team Tampa Bay by 7.5 just a few weeks ago and last week on the road they were -3 @ Arizona.  This is a big home game for the Lions who are 2-1 and take the road for 4 of their next 5 games.  They lead the NFL in YPG margin at +106 and if they avoid the turnover bug, we like them to win this game by at least a TD.

WNBA top play on Minnesota -4 vs. Connecticut Sun, 8:30 PM ET - If you have been following us for any length of time you’ve heard us say many times the Lynx are the best team in the league. Napheesa Collier is one of the best in the league and she clearly upped her game in the first two playoff games against the Mercury with 38 and 42-points. Those numbers come against Brittney Griner who is labeled as a defensive stopper. Minnesota is 16-4 SU their last 20 home games with an average margin of victory of +10PPG. Connecticut is coming off a series with the Fever and got a ton of media coverage with Caitlyn Clark in town. They won big in game 1 of that series and won close in game 2. That was against a Fever team that is one of the worst defensive teams in the W, Minnesota is one of the best. These two teams have near-even season statistics when it comes to Offensive & Defensive Net ratings, but we like the scheduling situation here to back the Lynx. Minnesota is 23-7 SU their last 30 at home and will benefit from the home crowd in this one. Lay it.

#288 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a much more important game for the Ravens who sit with a 1-2 record while the Bills have gotten off to a 3-0 start.  Baltimore has outgained each of their opponents by a combined 265 yards including topping KC by 100 yards in a week 1 loss on the road.  Their 28-25 win @ Dallas last week was a bit deceiving with the Ravens rolling out to a 28-6 lead in the 4th quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  They won’t make that mistake again as Dallas scored 3 TDs in the final 9:00 minutes to make it tighter than it should have been with Baltimore holding a 7.6 to 5.9 YPP edge in that game.  Buffalo is on the road on a short week after beating a bad Jacksonville team (0-3 record) on Monday night.  The Bills had to come from 14 points down in their opener to nip Arizona and then faced an overvalued Miami team that lost QB Tagovailoa during the game.  Buffalo is good but overvalued right now in our opinion.  The host Ravens are averaging 203 YPG rushing on a league high 5.9 YPC and they should be able to take advantage of a Buffalo defense that has allowed 4.7 YPC (22nd) and is playing without their top 2 LB’s.  When facing a mobile QB in week 1 (Arizona’s Kyler Murray) the Bills allowed 125 yards rushing on 5.0 YPC and allowed Murray to rush for over 10 YPC.  Now they face the best running QB in the league.  On the flip side, the Bills have also transitioned to a heavier rushing attack this year but they are now facing a Baltimore defense that ranks #1 in the NFL giving up just 50 rushing YPG on 2.8 YPC.  The Ravens cannot afford to drop to 1-3 with 3 of their next 4 games on the road.  Lamar Jackson is 27-4 ATS in regular season games when favored by less than 3 points or an underdog.  This is a huge home game for Baltimore and we like them to win and cover.

#280 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -3.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This is a solid situational spot for the Cards at home.  They lost last weekend here vs Detroit and played very poorly on offense.  The Lions were a bit desperate as well coming off a home loss vs TB.  The prior week, Arizona destroyed the LA Rams at home 41-10 outgaining LA 7.9 YPP to just 4.7 YPP.  That’s the same Rams team that, while banged up, turned around and beat the 49ers last Sunday.  This will be Arizona’s 3rd straight home game prior to playing 3 of their next 4 on the road so an important game for them here.  Washington is making the long trip west on a short week after upsetting Cincinnati on Monday night 38-33.  The Commanders were outgained in the win 7.3 to 6.2 YPP and on the ground 6.2 YPC to 3.4 YPC.  Arizona’s offense should get back on track here facing a Washington defense that ranks 31st in YPP allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, 30th in PPG allowed, and dead last in 3rd down conversion rate allowed.  This is Washington’s 3rd road game in the first 4 weeks and we look for this young team to struggle after a win and now on a short week.  The Cards have already faced 2 high level opponents (Buffalo & Detroit) yet their YPP margin is a solid +0.5.  Washington, on the other hand, has been outgained on the year with a YPP margin of -0.7 which is 8th worst in the NFL despite their 2-1 record.  This is a huge home game for Arizona and we’ll call for them to win this one by more than a FG.

WNBA play on Las Vegas +4.5 at New York, 3 PM ET - The Aces went through the motions early in the season and didn’t play up to standards as the defending Champions. Recently though they’ve clearly flipped the switch and look like a team that can win it all again this season. Las Vegas is 11-4 SU their last 15 games, 6-3 SU on the road in that stretch +3.7PPG. Granted, New York is playing well down the stretch too with a 11-4 SU record in their last 15 games, but just 4-3 SU at home with an average +/- of +1.6PPG. These two team rate near even in both Offensive Net rating and Defensive Net rating since the Olympic break. Las Vegas won the Ship last season with a win on this floor and are more than capable of winning here again, especially when they have the best player on the floor in A’ja Wilson. With this being an afternoon game there will be little energy for this Liberty home game.

#271 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET -

The Bengals are 0-3 but they’ve outgained every opponent on YPP basis and they sit at 7th in the NFL in YPP margin.  This is an absolute must win for the Bengals as they cannot afford to drop to 0-4.  In their only other road game this season Cincy lost 26-25 @ Kansas City but had more yardage and better YPP numbers than the host Chiefs in that one.  KC got a late pass interference call on 4th and long vs Cincinnati that set them up for the game winning FG.  Last week the Bengals lost 38-33 vs Washington but once again, they completely outplayed the Commanders with 435 to 356 yards along with outgaining them by +1.1 YPP.  They are back at full strength offensively with WR Higgins back and they should big success vs a Carolina defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in total defense, YPP allowed, and 3rd down conversion percentage.  Carolina lost first 2 games (Saints & Chargers) by combined score of 73-13 and then made the switch last week to Andy Dalton at QB.  The Panthers looked much better and picked up their first win of the season.  However, we often see a team have a 1 game boost when switching QB’s with the team rallying.  They caught the Raiders in a rough spot as well after upsetting Baltimore on the road a week earlier despite getting drastically outplayed in the stats.  The entire problem for Carolina was not simply the QB situation.  They have won only 3 of their last 20 games and now facing a desperate team that many considered a Super Bowl contender prior to the season.  Cheap price here as well at -4.5.  If this game would have been played a few weeks ago it definitely would have been north of a TD and possibly double digits.  Bengals on Sunday.

#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON North Carolina +2.5 over Duke, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We were on James Madison last weekend vs UNC and picked up a solid win.  We’ll switch it up this Saturday and take the Heels getting points @ Duke.  Last week’s 70-50 loss for the Tar Heels was a bit deceiving.  The yardage with JMU was basically dead even (616 to 612) but UNC lost the turnover margin at -4 (5 turnovers for UNC and 1 for JMU).  Not only that, those turnovers turned into points for as the Dukes scored TD’s on a pick 6 and a blocked punt along with 2 other UNC giveaways that also turned into 2 touchdowns.  The defense was obviously shredded but prior to last weekend that unit had played well allowing just 15.6 PPG through their first 3 games.  The defense was embarrassed last week and we look for a huge effort on that side of the ball Saturday against a Duke offense that isn’t very explosive.  The Devils rank outside the top 90 in total offense, YPP offense, and rushing offense.  Duke is 4-0 but we haven’t been overly impressed.  They struggled to beat UConn at home a few weeks ago 26-21 and they were outrushed 4.8 YPC to 3.6 YPC in that game.  Last week they faced one of the worst teams in the nation, Middle Tennessee State, and while the final score looked solid (45-17 win) they only outgained the Blue Raiders by 45 yards.  MTSU won in the trenches as well outrushing Duke 4.2 YPC to 3.5 YPC but the Raiders had 4 turnovers.  UNC head coach Mack Brown apologized to his team after last week’s loss and they’ve rallied around him this week.  We expect a big effort from the Heels.  North Carolina has dominated this series winning 28 of the last 33 meetings.  They were a dog in only 4 of those 33 match ups and covered all 4.  We like UNC to win this game outright.

#166 ASA PLAY ON UAB +4.5 over Navy, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This is one of the best situational spots on the board in our opinion.  UAB had last week off so 2 full weeks to prepare for Navy’s offense which is key since this is not an offense most teams see on a weekly basis.  Navy, on the other hand, is coming off a big upset win over Memphis 56-44 last week and they have Air Force next week.  We were on Navy last week in that spot as Memphis was in a poor situation on the road for the 2nd straight week after upsetting Florida State a week earlier.  In that game, Memphis actually outgained the Middies by 94 yards and had 11 more first downs.  Prior to facing Memphis in a perfect spot last week, Navy had played FCS Bucknell and Temple, one of the worst FBS teams.  Now they take the road for the first time this season vs a team that really needs a win after losing @ Arkansas in a fairly close game 37-27 the week before their bye.  Despite their 1-2 record, UAB has outgained their opponents in YPG and YPP margin this season.  Their offense should do some damage vs a tired Navy defense that was on the field for a whopping 95 snaps last Saturday.  When these 2 met last season Navy was a home underdog and upset UAB.  Now they are laying points in the road just a year later which is too large of an adjustment according to our power ratings.  We like UAB here.

#134 ASA PLAY ON UConn -5.5 over Buffalo, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Buffalo is coming off a huge conference upset topping Northern Illinois last week as 14 point dogs.  They topped the Huskies 23-20 in OT despite getting outgained 359 to 184.  They caught NIU coming off a win over Notre Dame in their previous contest so a perfect spot for the Bulls to catch the Huskies.  After that huge win, Buffalo now goes on the road again in a somewhat less meaningful non-conference game @ Connecticut.  The Huskies are playing solid football right now coming off a 48-14 home win over FAU last weekend.  Dating back to the end of last year, UConn has won 4 of their last 6 games with their only losses coming @ Maryland and @ Duke.  The offense is very confident right now, especially at home where they’ve scored 111 points in 2 games this season.  The Huskies are averaging 6.4 YPP and are one of the better rushing teams in the nation 242 YPG rushing on 5.6 YPC.  The Buffalo offense (averaging just 4.5 YPP – 123rd in the nation) will have trouble keeping up in this one.  The offense can’t really hang their hat on anything as they rank 99th in rushing and 126th in passing.  The Bulls defense ranks 71st vs the run this season and could run out of gas in this one after being on the field for 85 plays and 36+ minutes in last week’s upset.  The Huskies have played the tougher schedule so far this year and they have a +125 YPG and +0.8 YPP differentials while Buffalo is -55 YPG and +0.2 YPP.  We think UConn is a bit undervalued right now because they haven’t been a very good program as of late.  Head coach Jim Mora Jr definitely has the Huskies headed in the right direction.

#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas State -5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both teams off losses last week but OSU’s was deceivingly close while KSU was the opposite.  Kansas State lost 38-9 as 7 point favorites at BYU (we were on the Cougars in that one).  Believe it or not, the Cats outgained BYU by +125 yards and outrushed them 228 to 92.  Three turnovers were a killer for KSU in that game.  The Wildcats led 6-0 with just over 2:00 minutes remaining in the first half.  4 minutes into the 2nd half (so a 6 minute span) BYU led 31-6 and had TD drives of 5, 29, 27 and 6 yards during that 6 minute span basically putting the game out of reach.  Now we get an angry Kansas State team at home that should dominate in the trenches.  They are averaging 240 yards on the ground on 6.5 YPC facing an Oklahoma State defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run.  KSU yards per carry differential (YPC offense minus YPC they allow on defense) is +3.7.  OSU’s YPC differential is -1.3 and they rank outside the top 100 both rushing on offense and stopping the run on defense as we mentioned above.  OSU looked like they gave Utah a battle last week losing 22-19.  Fact is the Cowboys were down 22-3 at home in that game with less than 6 minutes remaining.  They were outgained 457 to 285 and outrushed 250 to 48.  On top of that, Utah’s starting QB Rising didn’t play and the Utes started a freshman at QB and still dominated.  These two both have 3-1 record and have played a very similar strength of schedule, yet KSU has a YPP differential of +1.3 while OSU is -0.2.  Last time OSU visited Manhattan KS 2 years ago, they left with a 48-0 loss.  Last year the Wildcats were favored by 11.5 AT Oklahoma State and lost in a upset.  This year at home they are laying just -5 and we look for a dominating with for the home team. 

#107 ASA PLAY ON Washington +2.5 over Rutgers, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Huskies have played the tougher schedule to date and have the much better overall stats.  After 4 games, UW is 12th nationally in YPG and YPP margin outgaining their opponents by +220 YPG and by +3.3 YPP.  Compare that to Rutgers, who has played the much weaker schedule, with the Knights sitting at +125 YPG and +1.5 YPP.  Washington played their first Big 10 game last weekend and dominated Northwestern holding the Cats to 112 total yards on just 2.1 YPP in that 24-5 win.  Their lone loss came vs an undefeated Washington State team 24-19 in a game the Huskies outgained the Cougars 452 to 381 and were stopped at the 1-yard line which ended the game.  Rutgers is 3-0 but they’ve played a cupcake schedule – ranked 193rd strength of schedule by Sagarin who includes FCS teams – thus the Scarlet Knights slate this year is easier than a good number of FCS teams.  They opened the season with a win over FCS Howard and then took out Akron who is rated as the 4th worst FBS team per Sagarin.  Last week Rutgers upset Va Tech on the road 26-23.  However, the Hokies won the stat sheet averaging 5.9 YPP to 5.5 for Rutgers.  The problem was, VT had 3 turnovers which led to Rutgers running 77 offensive snaps to just 54 for the Hokies.  Even with that, the Knights couldn’t pull away and won on a late FG with under 2:00 minutes remaining.  Now they come home a bit overvalued with their 3-0 record.  The better team is getting points here (better YPP on both sides of the ball), if they can cope with the long travel spot, we think Washington will win this game outright.  

#106 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL -17.5 over Virginia Tech, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll need to watch the weather closely here with Hurricane Helene on the gulf side Thursday night which could affect the weather here.  Right now it looks like it should be OK with 10 to 15 MPH winds and not much, if any, rain during the game.  Va Tech has been a disappointment so far this season.  Tabbed as a team that could compete for the ACC title, they sit at just 2-2 with a road loss @ Vandy and home loss vs Rutgers.  They are 1-3 ATS with their only cover coming vs a bad Old Dominion team that has yet to win a game.  The Hokies are outside the top 65 in both total offense and total defense and their YPP margin is barely above water at +0.4.  Tonight they face a Miami team that ranks in the top 10 in both total offense (2nd) and total defense (10th) on the season.  The Canes YPP differential is 3rd best in the country at +4.4.  They have won each of their games by at least 24 points and they are winning by an average of +39 PPG.  That includes road wins @ Florida and @ USF.  Last week @ South Florida, a game we thought was very dangerous for the Canes, Miami simply dominated in their 50-15 win with almost 600 yards on 9.4 YPP.  That was vs a USF team that gave Alabama all they could handle on the road this year trailing just 13-12 in the 4th quarter before the Tide picked up some late TD’s.  VT will have big time struggles on offense here as they rely fairly heavily on the run.  They are not a great passing team ranking outside the top 90 in passing YPG, completions per game, and completion percentage.  Problem is, the Miami defense has been a brick wall holding opponents to 64 YPG rushing on 2.5 YPC, top 10 in both stats.  This line isn’t all that crazy as last year Miami was a 9 point favorite @ Va Tech and won.  That would mean this season we’d expect Miami to be around a 15 to 17 point favorite which is where they are + the Canes are light years better this year than last season.  We’re not sure that’s been factored in enough here.  Lay it with Miami on Friday Night.

ASA play on Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ NY Giants, 8:20 PM ET - We like the Cowboys to bounce back here off of two tough losses to the Saints and Ravens. New York meanwhile is off a win over the Browns as a big underdog. The Cowboys have owned this series with the Giants with a 13-1 SU record the last 14 meetings and an average +/- in those games of +16PPG. Dallas has covered the spread in six straight meetings versus New York. Last year in the two clashes the Cowboys won 40-0 and 49-17. They outgained the Giants 905/343 in total yards. Dallas was outplayed badly by the Saints two weeks ago, then caught a desperate 0-2 Ravens team last week that had to win. New York was thoroughly beaten by the Vikings in Week 1 then lost to the Commanders, and beat a bad Cleveland team last week. Despite playing much better competition, the Yards Per Play differential is near even for these two teams. The Cowboys have a negative YPP number of minus -0.7. The Giants are minus -0.5YPP. The Dallas D is soft in the middle, but the Giants have a below average rushing attack. New York’s pass defense will be hard pressed to stop the Cowboys and if this game turns into a shootout the G-men don’t have a shot at covering.

#477 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 over Buffalo Bills, Monday at 7:30 PM ET -Historically teams that start the season with an 0-2 record hit over 60% ATS in game 3 dating back 10 years and yesterday (Sunday) those teams went 6-1 SU & ATS with the Titan being the only loser.  Jacksonville falls into that category on Monday night and we’re getting nearly a full TD with the Jags.  They have lost their 2 games by a combined 8 points and they’ve outgained their opponents this season +0.2 YPP.  The Jags are also dominating in the trenches 5.4 YPC to 3.8 YPC which will lead to wins in most cases.  This Jax defense is undervalued in our opinion and they match up nicely vs this run heavy Buffalo team.  The Bills are only averaging 21 pass attempts per game (31st in the NFL) but they will have trouble running on this Jags front 7 that allows barely 100 YPG on the ground and 3.8 YPG which ranks 8th best in the league.  The Bills offense has been uber efficient averaging 1 point for every 9 yards gained (2nd in the NFL) which isn’t sustainable.  Jacksonville on the other hand has averaged 1 points for every 19.7 yards gained which is very poor and we would expect to improve.  The Jaguars have definitely had their chances on offense moving inside their opponents 35 yard line 9 times on their 21 possessions this year but have only 3 TD’s and 35 total points to show for it.  Last week they outgained the Browns by +1.3 YPP and outrushed them 6 YPC to 4.3 YPC and somehow lost.  The Bills, on the other hand, blew out Miami but were outgained by over 100 yards in the game.  They benefitted from 3 Dolphin turnovers and Miami QB Tagovailoa went out with a concussion midway through the 3rd quarter.  Jax has faced Buffalo twice in the last 3 years and won both games as an underdog including 25-20 last year outgaining the Bills by 85 yards.  This desperate Jags team gives it all on Monday and stays within the number.

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun -5 vs. Indiana Fever, 3 PM ET - The Fever are young and making their first playoff appearance in 12 years. None of the players that get significant playing time have ever been in the playoffs. Connecticut is a veteran team that plays great defense and will draw a solid home crowd, with most being their fans and not Caitlyn Clarks. The Sun were 14-6 SU at home this season with an average +- of +5.1PPG. Indiana was 8-12 SU away from home with an average differential of minus -4.7PPG. This Sun team has the best Defensive Net rating in the league at 94.1 and they’ve held 16 of twenty opponents to less than 80 points at home this season. Indiana is slightly better than the Sun in Offensive Net rating but far worse defensively with the 2nd worst Defensive Net rating in the league. You win in the playoffs with defense and the Fever don’t play any. Connecticut has won 3 of four against the Fever this season and they get this series opening win by double digits.

#464 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans are backed into a corner here with an 0-2 record and they are in absolute must win mode. They could easily be 2-0 as they outgained each of their first 2 opponents on a YPP basis but they are -4 in turnover margin which is why they are winless. The Titans actually sit 8th in the NFL in YPP margin ahead of this Green Bay team. The Packers starting QB Love is listed as questionable for this one but we can’t imagine they’ll take a chance a play him. He’s not 100% and the Packers have a much bigger game on deck with division rival Minnesota. Our guess is he will return for that match up next Sunday. If that’s the case GB will send Malik Willis out again this week. Last week head coach Matt LaFleur asked very little of Willis as the Packers went run heavy with 53 rushing attempts and just 14 pass attempts. That plan was successful last week vs an Indy defense that has been terrible stopping the run this year already allowing almost 500 yards on the ground in two games. That strategy won’t work vs Tennessee who has an impressive front 7 and has limited their opponents to just 92 YPG rushing and ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense allowing just 206 total YPG. The Titans will take away GB’s run and force Willis to beat them through the air. This Tennessee teams knows what Willis can and can’t do and we expect them to shut down GB’s offense. NFL 0-2 teams in week 3 are 52-33 ATS (61%) over the last decade and Tennessee falls into that mode here. It’s their last hurrah as 0-3 teams almost never make the playoffs. In fact since 2003 there have been 103 teams to start 0-3 and only 1 made the playoffs (2018 Houston Texans). Tennessee is better than their record and GB has a bigger game on deck next week. Titans win and cover.

#398 ASA PLAY ON Navy +9.5 vs. Memphis, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Navy is the play here as a rested, a potential rush doubling underdog, at home, facing a Memphis team off a HUGE win over Florida State. Navy is once again one of the best rushing offenses in the nation at 298 rushing YPG. Overall, the Mid’s are averaging 6.9YPP (19th) while allowing just 4.8YPP defensively (48th). Of course, we need to temper our enthusiasm with the Navy’s overall numbers as they have faced Temple and Bucknell. Memphis is 3-0 SU/ATS with wins over North Alabama, Troy and Florida State. The Tigers rushing D is ranked 13th allowing just 69RYPG but the two FBS teams they faced rank 100th and 126th in rushing offense. Preparing for the Navy hybrid Wing-T offense is not an easy thing to do and Memphis isn’t in a great schedule situation off their upset win (Tigers HC called it “monumental” and “historic”). Last season when these same two games got together in Memphis, the Tigers were 11-point favorites and won by 4-points despite getting outgained in the game. Memphis has been a road favorite just 9 times since 2020 and they have covered 4 of those games. Navy as an underdog is 19-15 ATS since 2020.

#329 ASA PLAY ON James Madison +10.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Looks like UNC may start their 3rd string QB in this one, Jacolby Criswell, as they search for a passing game.  Criswell entered last week’s game in favor of 2nd stringer Harrell who is struggling to get anything going through the air.  Original starting QB Johnson had a season ending injury in their season opener @ Minnesota.  Last week’s FCS opponent, NC Central, gave UNC everything they could handle despite the final score.  It turned into a blowout win but UNC led just 17-10 in the 4th quarter.  That’s an NC Central team that lost 41-19 vs Elon a week prior.  JMU gets their shot at a high profile opponent here and they had last week off to get ready for this one.  The Dukes should be able to focus on the run defensively in this one vs a one dimensional Tar Heel offense.  UNC ranks outside the top 100 in passing YPG, passing attempts per game and completions per game.  With very little passing attack, we think it will be tough for the Heels to pull away in this game.  JMU steps in with a 2-0 record and these two both played Charlotte this season so we have a solid comparison point.  JMU played @ Charlotte, won by 23 points and outgained the 49ers by and impressive +2.9 yards per play.  UNC played host to Charlotte, won by 18 and outgained the 49ers by just +0.4 YPP.  The Tar Heels remain overvalued by the markets with an 0-7-1 ATS run (vs FBS opponents) losing those games by 75 combined points vs the number.  The heels are also just 1-8 ATS their last 9 games when posted as a double digit favorite.  UNC has a huge game on deck vs in-state rival Duke and we like James Madison to keep this one close.  Take the points.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream +1.5 at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - The Liberty have locked up the #1 seed in the playoffs and will rest starters tonight against Atlanta. The Dream however need to win to have a shot at grabbing the 8th and final spot in the postseason. One thing we’ve learned in the WNBA this season is that depth is typically a concern for teams. New York has a few players that come off the bench and contribute but without their four starters of Stewart, Ionescu, Jones and Laney-Hamilton they lose 65.5PPG and the bulk of their rebounding, assists etc…Atlanta put themselves in position to make the playoffs with two straight wins over Chicago and Washington who were the other two contending teams for that coveted 8th and final spot. With the Liberty expected to sit everyone we will take Atlanta and we expect them to win this game outright.

ASA WNBA top play on Las Vegas Aces -7.5 at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - This number opened with Vegas -4.5 and was quickly bet up to the current number once the news of Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor were out tonight. Loyd leads the Storm in scoring at 19.7PPG while Magbegor leads the team in rebounding at 8.0. In the WNBA depth is typically a big concern for teams and these two key pieces missing will be too much for the Storm to overcome. This is a big game for both teams as they currently sit #4 (Vegas) and #5 (Storm) in the playoff standings with only 1-game separating the two teams. The significance is that the #4 seed hosts the first round series against the #5 seed. Las Vegas has looked like the team that won it all last season in recent weeks with a 7-1 SU record in their last eight games. In that 8 game stretch they have an average +/- of +9.6PPG, best in the league. Every win in that 8-game span has come against a current playoff bound team or one in contention. Seattle has won 4 in a row and 5 of their last six games, but their last 3 wins have come against the Sparks and Wings who are the two worst teams in the league and all 3 of those games were close. Las Vegas has dominated this series with a 9-1 SU/ 7-3 ATS record in the last ten meetings. LV won by 5-points on this court earlier this season when the Storm were at full strength. Today the margin is much more against this depleted Seattle roster.

#290 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -6.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Bears showed everyone in week 1 just how explosive they are going to be with rookie QB Caleb Williams under center. Chicago mustered 11 first downs, 84 yards rushing and 64 net yards passing. Williams was 14 of 29 for 93 yards. The Bears blocked a punt for a TD and returned an INT for a touchdown. Houston went into Indianapolis and dominated the Colts who were lucky to cover that game late. The Texans amassed 417 total yards at 5.8YPP, dominated the time of possession by 20 full minutes, were 100% in red zone trips and scored 29-points. RB Joe Mixon of the Texans had a huge rushing game with 159 yards and a touchdown. The Colts and Bears run a similar defensive scheme so expect Mixon/Texans running game to get untracked in a hurry. Once the run game is established QB Stroud and the passing attack can exploit a Bears pass defense that allowed the 25th most passing YPG in 2023. Houston had an average +/- at home last season of +6.9PPG. The Bears road differential was minus -6.6PPG.  Chicago lost 5 road games last season by 7 or more points. As long as this line is -7 or less we are on the Texans.

#268 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys -5.5 over New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET -

New Orleans looked great last week at home but their opponent may have had a lot to do with that.  Carolina simply looked inept on both sides of the ball.  The Saints scored 47 points on just 379 total yards for a ridiculous average of 1 point for every 8 yards gained.  Part of that was field position with New Orleans having scoring drives (TD or FG) of 1, 9, 16, and 36 yards.  QB Carr has zero pressure and completed 82% of his passes because of that.  That won’t happen this week vs a Dallas defensive front that is among the best in the NFL.  The Cowboys had 6 sacks last week vs Cleveland and finished in the top 8 last season in sack percentage.  They’ll be facing a Saints offensive line that was solid last week but came into the season ranked 31st per PFF so maybe an aberration last week vs a poor team.  Dallas was also impressive last week and played a much better opponent and they were on the road.  They dominated the Browns 33-17 holding Cleveland’s offense to just 3.3 YPP.  The Browns scored a TD with under 30 seconds left in that one to make it look more respectable than it actually was.  Now we get Dallas at home where they’ve been dominant winning 16 straight regular season games by an average margin of +17.5 PPG.  Only 3 of those 16 straight regular season wins came by less than 6 points which is today’s spread.  Dallas outscored their opponents at home by 172 points last season which was tops in the NFL.  As you might expect with those numbers, Dak Prescott’s home and road splits last season were drastically different.  At home he completed 73% of his passes for almost 2,500 yards, 22 TD’s and just 3 picks.  He should have lots of success vs a New Orleans secondary that might be without their top CB Lattimore.  Cowboys by double digits

#186 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -16.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This ain’t the Air Force team of the last few seasons.  Not even close.  The Falcons lost nearly everyone from last year’s team and rank outside the top 100 in returning yardage, returning tackles, and returning offensive line starts.  The problem is, when Air Force loses that much talent, they aren’t the team that just pays kids to come in from the portal and replace them.  They are going with what they have and it hasn’t been pretty so far this season.  The Falcons struggled in week 1 to beat FCS Merrimack and AF was actually outgained 3.8 YPP to 3.4 YPP.  Even more concerning for heavy running Air Force, they were outgained on the ground 4.2 YPG to 3.0 YPC.  That was vs a Merrimack team that turned around and played a bad UConn team last week and lost 63-17 getting outgained 625 to 279 vs the Huskies.  AF played San Jose State in week 2 and lost again averaging only 3.0 YPC.  For a heavy running team that has completed only 13 passes in 2 games to average only 3.0 YPC is a big problem.  Now they face a Baylor team that is far more talented and deep compared to Merrimack and San Jose State.  The Bears should be hungry here coming off a 23-12 loss @ Utah who many feel is the best team in the Big 12 this season.  On top of that, they lost to Air Force in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl giving them a little extra motivation.  Baylor QB Finn, transfer from Toledo, will give the AF defense big problems with his running ability, after the Falcons faced 2 non-mobile QB’s in the first 2 weeks.  Baylor is the much more athletic and deeper team here which will be key as this one is being played in 90+ degree temps in Waco.  Baylor wears down AF and rolls to a big win.

#138 ASA PLAY ON Washington -5.5 over Washington State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This game is in Seattle at the Seahawks home stadium.  Washington lost a ton of production off of last year’s team that played for the National Championship but they’ve been flying under the radar so far this season.  New HC Jedd Fisch, who led Arizona to a 10-3 record last year, and new QB Rogers who transferred from Mississippi State, have this team clicking early in the year.  They are currently 8th in the nation in YPP differential at +4.5.  They handled one of the top team in FCS, Weber State, 35-3 and outgained them by 230 yards.  Last week they beat Eastern Michigan 30-9 but the stats were much worse than that with the Huskies outgained the Eagles by 300 yards.  Wazzou is in a similar situation losing nearly all of their production from last year (113th in returning yards & 109th in returning tackles).  The Cougars beat Portland State (bad FCS team) to open the season and then beat Texas Tech in Pullman last week.  Tech had a multitude of key players that had to sit out that game including top RB Boyd along with a number of defensive starters and the Red Raiders had 4 turnovers in that game.  While Washington and Washington State haven’t played a common opponent, let’s focus on their FCS opponents in week 1.  That’s because those 2 opponents played each other in week 2.  As we mentioned, the Huskies outgained Weber State by 230 yards in week 1.  Wazzou outgained Portland State by 185 yards in week 1.  Weber State played Portland State last week and rolled to an easy 43-16 win outgaining PSU by 300 yards!  You get the point.  Washington has covered 16 of the last 23 meetings in this rivalry along with 12 of the last 14 SU.  Huskies get another won and cover in Seattle on Saturday.

#140 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State +17 over Oregon, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The Ducks have been as underwhelming in 2 wins as any team in the country.  While they are 2-0 SU, Oregon is 0-2 ATS losing by an average of almost 4 TD’s each game to the spread!  They seem to be trying to find their way offensively after losing almost 70% of their offensive yards last year including QB Nix to the NFL.  Gabriel (Oklahoma transfer) is the new QB and while he’s been solid, their running game has been nearly non-existent with 107 yards on the ground vs Idaho and 112 last week vs Boise State.  The Broncos had more than double Oregon’s yardage on the ground last week and held the Ducks to 352 total yards.  That’s the same Boise defense that allowed 45 points and 460 yards to Georgia Southern a week earlier.  It looks like Oregon State should control the trenches here.  We mentioned the Ducks struggles to run the ball but that hasn’t been a problem for the Beavers who have outrushed their opponents 599 to 154 through 2 weeks.  The Oregon defense allowed almost 7 YPC last week vs Boise so we look for OSU to have plenty of success running the ball in this game.  Last week many in our industry felt Oregon would bounce back at home vs Boise after almost losing to Idaho.  It didn’t happen as the Ducks were outplayed at home in their tight 37-34 win and if not for a 100 yard kick return AND an 85 yard punt return for TD by Oregon, the Broncos win that game fairly easily.  Now they are laying 17 points on the road against OSU in the Beavers most important game of the season.  We just don’t see it.  Oregon State has covered 4 in a row at home vs Oregon and we’re grabbing the points.  

#142 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh +2 over West Virginia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - It’s time for the Backyard Brawl when the Pitt Panthers take on the West Virginia Mountaineers. Pitt is looking for revenge after a 6-17 loss a year ago. In our opinion, the Panthers are an undervalued team right with a 2-0 SU/ATS record. Pitt opened the season with a resounding home win over Kent State 55-24 as a -24-point chalk. Last week they went to Cincinnati and won 28-27 as a 2-point dog. Pitt hired O-coordinator Kade Bell in the offseason and it’s immediately paying dividends with a unit that’s averaging 534 YPG, 7.2 YPP and rushing for nearly 200 YPG. The Panthers have gotten great QB play out of freshman Eli Holstein (Bama transfer) and running back Desmond Reid who is averaging 8.9 yards/rush. Holstein has thrown for over 300+ yards in the Panthers first two games. We are not sold on this West Virginia team that lost badly in the opener to Penn State 12-34 at home as a +7.5-point underdog, then beat weakling Albany last week 49-14 as a 38-point favorite. If we focus on the game against Penn State, the Neers managed just 246 total yards of offense and 3.7 yards/play. PSU put up 457 yards against West Virginia at 7.6 YPP. Penn State then hosted a bad Bowling Green team last week and allowed 375 total yards and 27-points. West Virginia doesn’t look as good as preseason expectations, and Pittsburgh looks much better than originally thought. Pitt is on a 4-1 ATS run in home games. The Neers had a negative point differential of minus -3.6 PPG on the road last season. We like the Pitt Panthers at home in this rivalry.

#110 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State -7 over Arizona, Friday at 8 PM ET - We’ve been underwhelmed by Arizona this year as they transition to a new coaching staff and now play their first road game of the season. The Cats new HC Brennan came over from San Jose State replacing Jedd Fisch who took the head job at Washington. In their first 2 games this season, both at home, Zona topped a terrible New Mexico team 61-39 and then struggled last week with FCS Northern Arizona but ultimately came out on top 22-10. Both scores were a bit misleading as Arizona only led by 10 vs New Mexico late in the 3rd quarter and then were trailing at halftime last week vs NAU. They rolled up big yards on New Mexico, who may have the worst defense in the nation, but that was expected after the Lobos allowed FCS Montana State to put up 567 yards in week 1 loss for NM. Last week the Wildcats only gained 360 total yards vs Northern Arizona who has had 3 consecutive losing seasons at the FCS level entering this year. Two very low level opponents so far for Zona. KSU had a scare last week @ Tulane but found a way to come out on top 34-27. That wasn’t a huge surprise as the Green Wave look very solid again this year after finishing with an 11-3 record last year. So while KSU did struggle in that game, they’ve at least played a team with a pulse and on the road while still finding a way to win. KSU run game has been very good with a solid offensive line, a mobile QB (Avery Johnson) and 2 very solid RB’s. They’ve already rushed for 500 yards on 7.8 YPC in their 2 wins this season. While Arizona’s defense did limit NAU on the ground last week (which they should vs an inferior FCS school) in week 1 they allowed New Mexico to run for 5.5 YPC. KSU is a tough place to play with the Wildcats winning 8 of their last 9 here with all 8 wins coming by at least 13 points. They’ve also covered 7 of those 9 games. We like the stability (same coaching staff & 18 upperclassmen starting) for KSU while Arizona travels for the first time under their new regime. Zona struggled to put teams away at home when favored by -28 and -37 points in their first 2 games and we like Kansas State to win by more than a TD here.

ASA WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces -3.5 at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - The Aces started the season lethargic and were clearly suffering from Championship hangover. They are starting to look like themselves again as they ramp up for another run at the Title. Las Vegas has won 4 of their last five games but are coming off a tough loss in New York on September 8th. Last season they would have overlooked this Fever team, but not this year with WNBA icon Caitlyn Clark on the roster. The Aces arguably have the best roster in the W and the best player in the league in A’ja Wilson. With this being a marquee game, we expect the cream to rise to the top and we get a spirited effort from Las Vegas. If you haven’t followed the WNBA here is what you need to know about Wilson. She leads the league in scoring (27.3ppg), is 2nd in rebounds at 11.9rpg, 1st in blocks and 3rd in steals. LV has the 4th best average scoring differential this season at +4.7PPG. On that note, the Fever have a negative average +/- of minus -2.6ppg this season. These two teams are very similar in Offensive Net rating, but the Aces hold a sizable advantage defensively. Indiana has won 6 of their last seven games but only 1 of those came against a team with a winning record. We recently laid 3-points with the Lynx on this court, and they won by 11-points. The Aces have won by double-digits in both meetings against the Fever this season. Lay the points with the road team.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -4.5 at Atlanta Dream, 7:30 PM ET - We will lay the short number with arguably the best team in the W, against one of the worst. There won’t be much of a home court advantage here for the Dream who are 7-10 SU on their home court. The Lynx have not been as good on the road this season as they are at home but still stand 12-6 SU away from home. The Dream have played a very soft schedule of late with games against the Sparks, Mercury, Wings and Fever, producing a 2-2 SU record. Atlanta has 12 wins this season and only 4 of those came against a team with a current winning record. Minnesota has the 2nd best average point differential on the road in the league at +4.8PPG. The Lynx have the second best Net Rating at +8.3 behind the Liberty at +11.9. Minnesota is one of the best defensive teams in the W and the Dream aren’t far behind on that end of the court. The big separator is on offense where the Lynx have an Offensive Net rating of 103.4 (4th) compared to the Dream at 96.5 or last in the league. In the three meetings between these two teams this season the Lynx have won by double-digits twice and +7-points in the other game. We like Minnesota here.

#474 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Washington Commanders, Sunday at  4:25 PM ET - We know opening day underdogs historically do very well, but we will make an exception here with the Bucs at home against a rookie QB making his first NFL start on the road. Tampa Bay’s head coach Todd Boyles is one of the best defensive minds in the game and has been for years. Washington’s QB Daniels is going to be special, but with a limited scheme early on, against a confusing defense is a tall task to ask in his first start. Tampa Bay gave up yards last season but didn’t give up points allowing just 19.2PPG, the 5th lowest number in the league. The Bucs will pressure Daniels with a pass rush that averaged 2.8 sacks per game last season 8th most. Offensively the Bucs have a new O-coordinator in Liam Coen, the former Rams assistant in 2022. Coen contributed to an offense that ranked among league leaders across those seasons in passing yards per game (248.1; sixth), completions (1,504; 10th), first downs per game (21.4; 10th), third-down conversion rate (41.9%; eighth), goal-to-go efficiency (75.2%; ninth), rushing touchdowns (77; fourth), and fewest sacks allowed (139; eighth). Tampa will rely on QB Mayfield and the dynamic duo at WR of Evans and Godwin against a Commander's defense that was last in the league in passing yards per game allowed at 262. Washington allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt (31st) and Tampa hit for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in 2023 (10th). Washington has a new system offensively and defensively with a new coaching staff so it’s going to take time for them to adjust with a rookie QB. Tampa ended last season on a 6-2 SU run and narrowly lost to the Lions in the playoffs. Washington closed the year by losing 7 straight. It’s going to be hot and humid in Tampa and we like the Bucs to roll in this home opener.

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics +8.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx, 3 PM ET - These same two teams met in mid-August in Minnesota with the Lynx winning 79-68 as a -8.5-point favorite. Two nights later they met in Washington and the Lynx won again 99-83 as a -3.5-point chalk. You can see for yourself this line is not what it should be. Washington is playing well right now with a 5-1 SU record in their last six games. Minnesota is one of the best teams in the W right now, but they haven’t been great on the road with a 10-6 SU record. The Lynx have a Net rating of +5.3 on the road which is significantly lower than their home Net rating of +10.3. The Mystic have a home record of 4-12 SU but their average point differential of minus -3.4 is not as bad as their W/L record. Minnesota is coming off a big road win over the Fever and may let up in this one against a team they’ve beaten three times this season. Grab the points.

#465 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +3.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We think the Bears are overvalued entering this season.  Their win total jumped from 8.5 to 9.5 and we just don’t see this team as a 9 or 10 win team.  Much of the hype is obviously the QB situation with #1 draft pick Caleb Williams getting the start in this one.  While he is talented, the fact is that rooking QB’s simply aren’t very successful especially early in the season.  Rookie QB’s starting season openers are just 16-35-1 SU and here not only does Williams and the Bears need to buck that trend, they need to win by margin.  Williams is the 19th first overall pick to start in Week 1 at quarterback, and the previous 18 went 3-14-1 SU and 5-12-1 ATS (29%).  He’ll be facing a totally revamped Tennessee defense with 7 new starters and a new DC so Chicago won’t know what to expect coming into this one.  The Titans offense struggled to throw the ball last season (28th in passing YPG) but that changes in 2024.  New HC Callahan is a very good offensive mind (OC for Bengals last year) and we’ve been hearing QB Levis has been making great progress in this new offense.  He was 11 of 13 passing in the pre-season and the Titan’s offense looked very good averaging 373 YPG.  We realize the pre-season isn’t always a great indicator, but we have no doubt this offense will be much better this season.  The Titans have solid weapons on the outside with Ridley, Hopkins (who looks like he’ll play here) and Boyd.  The Bears have only been favored only 6 times the last 2 seasons and only 2 of those were by -4 or more.  They are just 8-15 ATS as favorite since start of 2019 season.  These 2 teams had very similar records (7-10 & 6-11) last season and identical YPP margins.  This game should be closer to a pick-em in our opinion and we’re getting this above the key number of 3.  Take Tennessee.

#470 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +3 vs. Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We get a divisional underdog, at home, playing with revenge. I’m not sure what else needs to be said. Overall, underdogs in W1 typically do very well with a 71-53 ATS record going back to 2016. Divisional dogs in Week 1 are 30-18 ATS going back 48 games in that situation. These same two teams met in the regular season finale last year with the winner advancing to the playoffs. The Texans won that game 23-19 as a 1-point favorite on this same field. The Colts had more total yards 360-306, more first downs and a TOP advantage. The game ended with Indianapolis on the 15-yard line going into score. The Colts did it last season with a backup QB in Minshew and now have a healthy Richardson under center. Indy will focus on the ground game here with RB Taylor healthy and one of the best O-lines in the league.  The Colts were 11th in rushing attempts per game last season and 10th in rushing YPG at 121. Houston had very good defensive numbers last season but how much of that was due to playing a soft schedule against some of the league's worst offenses. In fact, the Texans faced 13 offenses ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of DVOA last season. Houston finds themselves in unfamiliar territory here as a road favorite which has happened just 3 times in the past two seasons. They are 1-2 in those games and failed to cover by an average of -10PPG. A lot of hype surrounding Texans QB Stroud and this team, gives us a ton of value with the home team.

#368 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada pick-em over Georgia Southern, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Nevada has been a surprise this year taking a good SMU team to the wire and then turning around the next week and beating Troy on the road as 8 point underdogs (we were on Troy unfortunately).  We felt Nevada was in a really tough spot last week after nearly upsetting SMU then having to travel across the country and play in the heat and humidity @ Troy (Alabama).  The Trojans have an outstanding program (23-5 record the previous 2 seasons) and the Wolfpack got down 14-0 early and battled back for a 28-26 win.  Very impressive.  The Wolfpack have run the ball very well with 214 yards rushing last week vs good Troy defense on 6.3 YPC.  The week prior they outgained SMU on the ground by +0.5 YPC and last week outgained Troy on the ground by +1.0 YPC.  That rushing success should continue on Saturday as they face Georgia Southern defense that allowed 371 yards rushing on over 10 YPC vs Boise last week.  GSU gave Boise a decent run losing 56-45 but it really wasn’t that close as the Broncos outgained the Eagles by almost 200 yards despite running 20 fewer offensive snaps.  The final count on a yards per play basis was Boise 9.9, GSU 5.4.  We like Nevada’s new HC Choate who led a very good Texas defense the previous season and before that had an impressive run as the head man @ Montana State.  He has this team playing hard and with confidence.  They should catch Georgia Southern in a tough spot here after giving everything they had last week trying to upset Boise and now making the long travel west.  GSU is not trustworthy laying points on the road (or pick-em) as they’ve only won 7 of their last 29 road tilts outright.  As you might expect looking at those numbers, the Eagles are just 4-10 ATS as road favorites since 2015 (lined opened with GSU favored and now pick-em).  Nevada gets the win on Saturday.

#332 ASA PLAY ON Kentucky -9 over South Carolina, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Both won in last week’s season openers but we were less than impressed with South Carolina.  The Gamecocks trailed midway through the 4th quarter, scored a TD and then held on for dear life to win 23-19 as a 20+ point favorite vs Old Dominion.  We could argue that Old Dominion actually outplayed South Carolina in that game with a 305 to 288 total yardage edge despite the Gamecocks running 17 more offensive snaps.  Because of that, the YPP numbers were heavily in favor of the Monarchs (4.2 YPP to 3.2 YPP).  Looking even closer, South Carolina scored 2 TD’s in the game and those points came on drives of 3 yards and 6 yards after ODU turnovers.  The Monarchs 2 TD’s were both 75 yard drives.  SC was a heavy favorite, had a +3 turnover margin in the game and still almost lost at home.  Very concerning.  Kentucky rolled over Southern Miss last week 31-0 in a game that was called for bad weather early in the 3rd quarter.  New Wildcat QB Vandagriff, former 5* transfer from Georgia, looked solid completing 12 of 18 passes with 3 TD’s in just over one half of football.  The Cats completely controlled the trenches with 148 yards rushing (they were on pace for close to 300 if game was suspended) while holding USM to just 5 yards rushing.  Meanwhile, South Carolina failed to dominate on the line of scrimmage averaging just 3.1 YPC vs ODU while allowing 3.2 YPC.  This is a revenger after South Carolina won at home last season 17-14 vs Kentucky despite getting whipped in the trenches with the Wildcats averaging 4.5 YPC while holding SC to 1.5 YPC.  Kentucky’s 3 turnovers were the difference in that game.  Head coach Stoops was very upset after that loss and has been pointing toward this game early in the 2024 schedule. “That’s a very difficult loss for us right there. We didn't do a better job of putting them in position to be successful,” Stoops said.  We like Kentucky to win this one by double digits. 

#306 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +3 over Georgia Tech, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Our power ratings have Cuse as a slight favorite so we like the value with the home team here.  Tech steps in with a 2-0 record after beating Florida State in Ireland and then topping Georgia State at home last weekend.  Because of those wins this line is off in our opinion.  Their 24-21 win over FSU doesn’t look as impressive after the Noles were rolled at home by Boston College last week.  Their win last Saturday over Georgia State was nothing great vs a Panther team that lost most of their key players and is working under a brand new coaching staff.  GSU had 2 first and goal situations inside the Georgia Tech 3 yard line and came away with just 3 points.  Syracuse topped a solid Ohio team, one of the top teams in the MAC, at home last week 38-22.  We were a little concerned by their rush defense in that win, but the offense looked very solid with nearly 500 total yards.  New starting QB McCord, former Ohio State starter, threw for 354 yards and 4 TD’s.  He should look good on Saturday vs a GT defense that faced 2 poor passing QB’s in their first 2 games.  Last year this ACC match up was played @ Georgia Tech, because of injuries the Orange had to start a tight end at QB, and the line was -6.5 in favor of the host (Tech won by 9).  Now the line has shifted only 3 points and Cuse will be at home and actually playing one of the better signal callers in the ACC at QB.  GT has won only 14 of last 44 road games dating back to 2015 and they are just 2-9 ATS as RF during that same span.  We like Syracuse at home as a dog.

#304 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern -2.5 over Duke, Friday at 9 PM ET - Northwestern should have some extra motivation here after getting rolled 38-14 @ Duke last season.  Don’t be scared off by that final score as the Blue Devils are a completely different team this season.  Their QB in that game Riley Leonard is now starting at Notre Dame.  Duke lost nearly their entire offensive line (119th in returning starts) and defensive line from a year ago.  They are 130th in lettermen returning and their coaching staff has completely turned over with Manny Diaz as the head man after Mike Elko left for Texas A&M.  The Wildcats have the much more stable situation here with 15 starters back, the 4th most returning lettermen in college football, along with the same coaching staff.  NW had a solid win in week 1 beating MAC favorite Miami OH 13-6 and holding the Redhawks to just 40 yards rushing on 24 carries.  That’ll be a problem for Duke who struggled big time to run the ball vs FCS Elon tallying just 59 yards rushing on 27 carries.  Duke new QB Murphy had a solid day but with winds expected to be around 20 MPH right along the Lake Michigan shore (NW’s makeshift stadium this year is only a few yards from Lake Michigan) on Friday night, the team that runs the ball better should come out on top here.  We think that’s Northwestern.

#454 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -2 over Green Bay Packers, Friday at 8:20 PM ET – Game being played in Brazil - We think the Eagles will have a huge chip on their shoulders entering this season after losing 6 of their last 7 games a year ago including an embarrassing 32-9 loss in the playoffs to Tampa Bay.  The fact is, they were very banged up down the stretch, including QB Hurts who was nowhere near 100% in the 2nd half of the season.  They also upgraded big time at both coordinator positions which will help dramatically in 2024.  Kellen Moore will call the offensive plays after successful stints at Dallas and LA Chargers where his teams averaged 26 points in his 5 years as coordinator.  Vic Fangio, one of the top defensive minds in the NFL, will handle the stop unit.  The Eagles fell off a cliff last year after finishing #1 in total defense in 2022 they dropped to 26th last season and we expect a big improvement under Fangio.  The Packers are a bit overvalued in our opinion.  Let’s not forget this team was just 9-8 last season, squeaked into the playoffs at a 7 seed after beating Carolina, Minnesota (with Nick Mullens at QB), and then Chicago to close out the season.  Their win over Dallas in the playoffs was impressive but how good is this team?  Their defense needs to take a huge step forward under new DC Hafley (HC at Boston College last year) after finishing 22nd in total defense each of the last 2 seasons.  The favorite has been money in the bank in NFL International Games with a SU record of 33-10-1 and a spread record of 29-15 (66%).  We’ll call for Philly to win this one by a FG or more. 

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -2.5 at Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - The Fever have the best home court in the WNBA with the Clark “Fever” running high, but Minnesota, in our opinion, is the 2nd best team in the W behind the Liberty. The Fever are solid offensively with the 3rd best Offensive Efficiency rating in the W at 1.055PPP. Indiana relies on their 3PT shooting which is 4th best in the league at .35%. Minnesota is slightly behind the Fever in terms of OEFF at 1.048PPP and are the best percentage 3-point team in the league at .38%. The separator between these two teams is defense. The Lynx have the best DEFF in the W at .966PPP allowed. Indiana in comparison is 2nd to last in DEFF allowing 1.086PPP. Minnesota can nullify the Fever’s typical advantage beyond the arc with the best 3PT% defense in the W at .29% allowed. Indiana will have a tough time defending the Lynx great shooting from deep as they allow opponents to make over .36%, 2nd worst number in the W. Minnesota lost to the Fever at home earlier this season and won’t overlook them here.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -7.5 vs. Seattle Storm, 7 PM ET - The Storm have been disappointing since the Olympic break and a team we thought could make a serious run for the title. Seattle is good at home and just average on the road with an 8-8 SU record. The Storm have a negative point differential away from home of -0.8PPG. In comparison the Liberty are 14-2 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.3PPG which is best in the league. On the season the Storm have one of the best Defensive Net ratings in the league but in their last seven games they rank 7th with a DNR of 102.3. In that same time frame the Liberty are best in the W at 94.3 in DNR. Offensively it’s not close either with the Liberty holding a 103.7 ONR, the Storm rate 98.3 in ONR over their last 7-games. We recently cashed a big play on the Liberty -4 in Seattle, a New York 98-85 win. New York shot 51% in that game and DOMINATED the glass with a 45 to 17 rebound advantage. NY has won 6 straight against the Storm with both W’s this season coming by double-digits. Lay the points.

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics +6 at Dallas Wings, 8 PM ET - I’ll be honest, at first glance I was going all in on the Over of 170, but that has been quickly bet up to 174.5 which will keep us off the O/U. We do like the dog here with the Mystic though as Dallas is over-priced. The Wings are much better with the return of Sabally but they shouldn’t be laying this big of a number against a Mystic team on the upswing. Washington has faced a tough schedule since the Olympic break with a pair of games against the Lynx and Storm, along with a game vs. the Sun. Dallas has also faced a tough schedule in that same 7-game span and have been exposed defensively with a DNR of 112.9, worst in the league. In comparison the Mystic have the 4th best Defensive Net Rating over that 7-game stretch of 99.7. Dallas was recently a -7-point favorite at home against the Sparks, who are the worst team in the W, and narrowly won by 3-points. Washington is obviously being underpriced by the Books with spread wins in 4 of their last five games. Grab the points.

#219 ASA PLAY ON Boston College +17 over Florida State, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - This line was +21 last week prior to FSU losing to Georgia Tech so we’ve lost some value but still feel this number is too high. The most concerning thing to us about FSU’s loss last week was their strength on both sides of the ball was supposed to be in the trenches and they were pushed around by the Yellow Jackets. Tech averaged 5.3 YPC in that win with the Seminoles only averaging 3.2 YPC. We don’t think it will get any easier here vs a BC team that ran for 152 yards on FSU last year and brings back nearly everyone. In fact, the Eagles nearly pulled the upset last season losing 31-29 and they dominated the stat sheet outgaining the Noles 457 to 351 in that loss. New HC Bill O’Brien takes over a BC team that returns 81% of their total yards from last year (20th nationally) and 67% of their total tackles from a year ago (39th). That’s from a team that had a winning season and won a bowl game a year ago. QB Castellanos is back and he gave FSU fits last year throwing for 305 yards while rushing for 95. Last year’s FSU team was MUCH better than this year’s team and on the other side we expect the Eagles to be improved this year. Veteran coach O’Brien has a game’s worth of film on the Seminoles while Florida State won’t know what to expect with BC’s new coaching staff. Over the last decade, teams that are playing their first game of the season vs a team that already has a game under their belt have covered 56% of the time. Much more important to have game film on your opponent rather than having the experience of already playing a game. While we do expect FSU to come out on top at home, we don’t see a 2 TD+ win. BC will give them some problems here. Take the points.

#218 ASA PLAY ON USC +4.5 over LSU, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral site in Las Vegas, much closer to USC (4 hour drive). Both teams enter this game having lost a majority of their offensive production from last season. LSU lost Heisman QB Daniels, their top RB and their top 2 WR’s, both 1st round NFL picks. USC lost QB Williams, their top RB, and top 2 WR’s as well. Both offensive lines should be strong this season. Each finished with nearly identical defensive numbers, both outside the top 100 in total defense and outside the top 90 in defensive efficiency. We’ve heard good things about USC’s defense coming out of camp and we expect them to improve dramatically under new DC Lynn who came over from UCLA. Lynn improved the Bruins defense in one season from 87th in total defense in 2022 to 11th in 2023. That same UCLA defense allowed just 19 PPG last year after giving up 31 PPG the previous season. LSU is a bit concerned about their defensive line which normally doesn’t happen in Baton Rouge. The Tigers D-line is a group that features 10 total first-year players within LSU's football program. We look for new USC QB Moss to have a big season. In his one start last year, Moss threw for 372 yards and 6 TD’s in USC’s bowl win over Louisville. HC Lincoln Riley’s offense is always humming no matter who the QB is. He turns QB’s into Heisman contenders. We have these teams rated closer to even and we trust Riley much more than LSU HC Kelly. Riley is 6-1 ATS in his career as a dog of more than 3 points and Kelly’s teams have lost to FSU to open each of the last 2 seasons. We think this one goes to the wire so we’re grabbing the points.

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings +3.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 4 PM ET - Two of the hotter teams in the WNBA right now square off in a late afternoon tipoff in Dallas. The Fever have won 7 of their last ten overall and 5 of six since he Olympic break. Dallas has ripped off 3 straight wins. The Wings two most recent wins are very impressive as they beat Las Vegas and Minnesota, the top two teams in the West. The Wings are finally healthy with Satou Sabally back in the lineup, who is scoring 17PPG. Indiana has played well since the break but really have just one quality win in that stretch over Connecticut and two other semi-impressive wins over Seattle and Phoenix but all three were at home and Seattle/Phoenix seem to be fading. Right before the Olympic break these same two teams met on this court with the Fever favored by -4-points. Dallas won that game without Sabally 101-93, and you can see for yourself the odds in this game haven’t been adjusted enough with her in the lineup. The Wings are a team that can score with anyone which is what we expect them to do today. Dallas had a poor start to the season which included a 2-6 SU record at home. Most recently they have won 4 of their last five at home. Grab the points and the underdog.

#198 ASA PLAY ON Troy -8 over Nevada, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great line value on Troy in this game.  The Trojans were -15.5 a week ago in this match up and because Nevada played SMU close last week as a 27 point dog, this line has dropped through 2 key numbers 14 & 10.  Getting the Trojans at home under -10 is a very solid value.  Looking closer at Nevada’s 29-24 loss at home vs SMU last week reveals that the game shouldn’t have been all that close.  SMU was +6 first downs, +110 total yards, and nearly outgained the Wolfpack by 2.0 YPP.  Now after leaving it all on the field on Saturday, Nevada must travel across the country to play in 90 degree heat.  A tough ask for a team who had a win total of just 2.5 games this year, the lowest in college football.  Troy is replacing many of their key players plus they have a new coaching staff in place which should be a benefit as Nevada won’t be sure what to expect on either side of the ball.  Meanwhile, the Trojan staff has a full game of film on Nevada and that has proven to be beneficial.  In fact, over the last decade, teams playing their first game of the season vs teams that have already played a game have covered 56% of the time, so advantage Troy here.  We expect another high level defense from Troy this season who finished in the top 10 nationally last season in efficiency (YPP allowed).  Nevada will struggle offensively in this game.  Despite their new coaching staff (Nevada has a new staff as well), Troy is simply a solid program that has a record of 23-5 the last 2 seasons.  The Trojans win this one by double digits.

#186 ASA PLAY ON 10* Florida +2.5 over Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We just don’t trust this Miami team coming out of the gates.  Lots of hype around the Canes with multiple transfers securing key spots including QB Ward who came over from Washington State.  We think it will take them some time to get acclimated to each other and let’s face it, while Miami HC Cristobal is a very good recruiter, he is not a great head man.  He has been in charge of the Canes for 2 years with plenty of talent to do very well and his record here is just 14-11.  While U of M loaded up on transfers, we don’t like the continuity of this team ranking outside the top 100 in returning letterman and return tackle percentage on defense.  Again, they may struggle early in the year starting on Saturday.  Florida is coming off a tough 5-7 season in 2023 (5 of their losses came vs teams ranked 19 or higher) and nobody is talking about this team which is just how they like it.  The Gators return a bunch of production on offense ranking 36th nationally in returning yards.  Graham Mertz is back at QB and he finished 3rd in the nation in completion percentage last year at 73%.  It looks like top RB Johnson (2,500 career yards) will play here after missing some camp after a minor knee surgery.  We’ve been hearing good things coming out of camp about the Gator defense, especially the defensive line which is very deep this season.  Miami seems to be overrated every year.  They bring in players in highly rated players in recruiting and the portal and it rarely transfers to the field  The Canes were ranked in the top 25 entering the season in 2018, 2021, and 2022 and finished outside the rankings in each of those season.  The Swamp is a tough place to play with the Gators winning 28 of their last 35 games here, and Napier is 11-2 ATS in his career as a small home dog (+5 or less).  We take the Gators getting points at home on Saturday.

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics +9 vs. Connecticut Sun, 3 PM ET - The Mystic are playing well right now with 3 straight wins and have been competitive in all six games since the Olympic break. In their last six games the Mystic have a negative point differential of minus -3.5PPG which is 1-full point lower than their season average. They have a -4.4 Net Rating since the break also. Washington has a 20-11 ATS record this season and continues to be undervalued by the Books. Connecticut is slightly over-valued here and have been for most of the season with a 12-18-1 ATS record on the year. Since the break, the Sun are 4-2 SU but they have lost twice on the road to the Fever and Dream in that stretch. This has been a tight series with 9 of the last ten meetings decided by 8-points or less. In the most recent meeting the Mystic took the Sun to OT before losing close 94-91. We like the points and Washington.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* New York Liberty -2.5 at Seattle Storm, 10 PM ET - We like the Liberty here by double-digits in Seattle over the Storm. Seattle has a loaded roster but has struggled of late with a 2-3 SU record since the Olympic break. The Storm have a pair of wins against the Dream and Mystics who have a combined 19-42 SU record and are two of the bottom four teams in the league. The three losses in that five-game sample have come against the Dream, Fever and Mystics, again lower tier teams in the W. New York has the best record in the league at 26-6 SU with the best average point differential of +9.3PPG. The Liberty have the best offensive rating in the league at 109, the 4th best defensive rating at 97.1 and the best overall Net rating of +11.9. Seattle is slightly better than NY defensively but much worse offensively. The Liberty are 12-4 SU on the road this season with an average +/- of +9.4PPG. Granted, Seattle is good at home with a 12-4 SU record and an average point differential of +10.5PPG but their schedule to this point at home has been extremely easy. NY has beaten the storm 5 straight times and are in a great spot here coming off a loss in their most recent game. The Liberty are 11-1 SU in the last two regular seasons when coming off a loss and with this number being as low as it is we like our chances. Lay it!

#142 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota +2.5 over North Carolina, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We like the host getting points in this one as we expect the Gophers to win outright. These 2 met last season @ UNC and the line was -7 in favor of the Heels which tells us Minnesota should probably be a slight favorite here and maybe even more when we look closer at what these teams have returning. Minnesota controlled the trenches in last year’s loss averaging 5.5 yards per carry compared to just 2.8 for UNC. The Heels couldn’t run the ball at all on this Gopher defense and will have a tougher time this year with 4 new starting offensive linemen, none who have ever started a CFB game. Minnesota, on the other hand, returns most of their front 7 which shut down this running game last year. The Tar Heels don’t have top 5 pick QB Drake Maye to rely on this season after accounted for 448 of UNC’s 518 yards last year. Head coach Mack Brown said they may go with a 2 QB rotation here with A&M transfer Johnson (who is OK at best) and returning back up Harrell who is not a great passer. If UNC struggles to run the ball again do we trust these QB’s to carry the load behind a new offensive line? We don’t. On the other side of the ball, the Gophs should have one of the better offensive fronts in the Big 10 with 4 starters back including their LT who is a potential 1st round pick. Their top RB Taylor, who ran for 138 yards on 6.3 YPC vs UNC last year, was banged up a bit in camp but looks like he’ll be ready to go. Even if not, they’ve brought is some solid RB’s and HC Fleck considers that room very deep. New QB Brosmer, who transferred from New Hampshire, was a finalist for the FCS’s version of the Heisman last year and has been solid in camp by all reports. He shouldn’t have a ton of pressure on him to carry the load here if Minny can run the ball like we think they will. Minnesota should control the trenches on both sides of the ball in this one and we have them as a slight home favorite here. We will take the value with them as a dog.

ASA NFL play on Denver Broncos -3 vs. Arizona Cardinals, 4:30 PM ET - The Broncos and Sean Payton have built some solid momentum in the preseason and are excited with rookie QB Nix, who has looked good in two games. Nix will not start or play in this game but we expect Denver to focus on winning this game and head into the regular season on a positive note. The Broncos have a QB2 battle going on between Stidham and Wilson who are capable backups. In limited action in the two exhibition games these two QB’s are a combined 23/37 for 248 total yards. The Broncos are 2-0 in the preseason with a 25-point win and a 4-point win. Arizona is 0-2 and will also sit starters in this game, including QB1 Murray. That leaves the quarterback duties to Ridder and Tune who are also battling it out for the QB2 spot. Last week with those two QB’s getting all the reps the Cardinals offense produced just 150 passing yards and 13-points. Arizona’s defense gave up 24-first downs to the Colts, 356 total yards and 24 first downs. NFLx teams that are coming off a 20+ point win in their previous game have a cover rate of 63% in their next game dating back 10+ seasons. Denver fits the bill this week after a 25-point win over the Packers last week. Lay it.

ASA WNBA play on Indiana Fever +5 at Minnesota Lynx, 8 PM ET - The Lynx are in a very tough scheduling spot here having played their biggest rival last night (Aces), and now have get the Fever who are rested. Minnesota has won two HUGE games against Las Vegas and are now playing their 3rd game in four nights. This is also their 4th game in 8 days. Indiana last played on August 18th, a home win over Seattle. Since the Olympic break the Fever have had a pair of quality wins over Phoenix and the Storm. Indiana and Minnesota met on this court July 17th with the Fever winning 81-74 as a +4.5-point underdog. If you watched that game, you know there wasn’t a home crowd advantage for the Lynx and there were far more Caitlyn Clark/Fever fans in attendance. Indiana has some of the worst defensive numbers on the season but have been much better in recent games, ranking 7th in Defensive Net Rating in their last 5. Over that same 5-game period the Fever have the best Offensive Net Rating in the league at 114.5. Minnesota is the better overall team and Napheesa Collier is one of the league's best players, but the scheduling situation warrants a bet on Indiana.

#121 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers -7 over Detroit Lions, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has said he will play his starters in this one including QB Russell Wilson. The offense has not been good thus far in the pre-season under new OC Smith who we feel is a big upgrade over last year’s OC Canada. After scoring only 15 total points in their first 2 pre-season games, expect the Steelers really push to put points on the board and pick up some positive momentum heading into the regular season. Last week was flat out poor for this Pitt offense but in week 1 they showed some life averaging 6.0 YPP vs the Texans but just couldn’t put points on the board. We think that changes today. Wilson and Justin Fields are in a battle for the starting job and it looks like both will get extensive action here. Meanwhile, Detroit played their starters last week in a 24-23 last second win @ KC and most, if not all, will sit this one out. So while Pitt will be going with 2 NFL level starters at QB in this one, the Lions will be using Nate Sudfeld, Hendon Hooker, and Jake Fromm under center. We mentioned Detroit’s win last week @ KC, however in their first pre-season game, they sat most of their starters as well and lost to the Giants 14-3 getting outgained by 1.2 YPP. This game is much more important for the Steelers who are 0-2 in the pre-season and really need something positive coming out of this game. Tomlin has always been a “want to win in the pre-season” coach with an 18-4 SU record the previous 6 seasons prior to this year. You can bet he absolutely wants to win this one and convincingly if he can. Pittsburgh wins by at least a TD on Saturday afternoon.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +6 at Las Vegas Aces, 9:30 PM ET - This matchup between the top two teams in the Western Conference promises to be a close one, likely decided by 5 points or less either way. Minnesota holds the edge in overall Net Rating at +8.2, compared to Las Vegas at +6.4. Defensively, the Lynx are superior, ranking 1st in Defensive Net Rating, while the Aces come in at 5th. Offensively, the Aces are 2nd in the WNBA, with the Lynx at 6th. Minnesota has excelled as an underdog this season, boasting a 7-3 record against the spread in that role. They’ve also won three consecutive games, giving them a 1.5-game lead over the Aces in the standings. With Collier back, the Lynx are significantly stronger than the team that struggled before the All-Star break. They are 7-5 SU on the road this season with a point differential of +4.6 PPG. Conversely, the Aces haven’t been a reliable bet this season, particularly against the spread, both at home (6-9 ATS) and overall (10-16 ATS). Last season, Las Vegas dominated at home with a 19-1 SU record and an average point differential of +17.6 PPG. However, this season they are just 9-6 SU at home with a much smaller average point differential of +4.5 PPG. While Vegas’ offense has seen improvement with Chelsea Gray back in action, I’m hesitant to expect a dominant win from the Aces, especially after their recent home loss to the New York Liberty, another top team. The Aces have already lost six home games this season, and clearly home-court advantage hasn’t provided the Aces with the edge it once did.

#922 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - This game is being priced with too much emphasis on the starting pitching match-up and, even then, there is a flawed perception here!  When one first looks at this match-up they see Garrett Crochet with a 3.61 ERA this season and a 3.28 ERA in his career.  One also sees Logan Webb with similar numbers as he has a 3.17 ERA this season and a 3.36 ERA in his career!  Before we even get into the vast difference between the recent trending of the White Sox and Giants, there is also a big difference in trending between these pitchers and it is not what one would expect given those numbers for Crochet.  The White Sox southpaw is dealing with a major stretch of struggles with only his last start, though short, an exception! Crochet has not lasted more than 4 innings in any of his last 7 starts and has averaged 3.1 innings per start!  Behind him is a very bad White Sox bullpen and also Crochet is off a scoreless 4-inning start but this followed him having given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings in his 4 outings since the All Star break!  As for Webb, he is in phenomenal current form as he has allowed only 2 earned runs in 29.1 innings over his last 4 starts.  Also, on the season he is 7-3 with a 2.26 ERA in his home starts!  Opponents are hitting only .223 against him in San Francisco.  Now, about those team trends, the Giants have won 11 of 16 home games and are still very much alive in the Wild Card race.  The White Sox, on other hand, are going down this season as one of the worst teams in all-time MLB history.  They head into this one with just 3 wins in 35 games and also are 12-53 on the road this season.  San Francisco wins this season have featured 72% of them coming by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Chicago's losses have seen 72 of 97 come by a multi-run margin.  Strong odds on yet another blowout loss for the White Sox here. Lay the run line in this one!

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings +14.5 at NY Liberty, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Liberty who are off a HUGE win in Las Vegas and have a BIG game on deck against Connecticut. Meanwhile Dallas comes into this game off a blowout loss at home to the Sun and will be looking to play at a much higher level here. The Wings got some help with the return of Satou Sabally who has missed most of this season with an injury. Sabally averaged 18.6PPG last season and grabbed over 8-rebounds per game. The Liberty have faced the weakest schedule in the league this season, so their overall stats are skewed in their favor. The Wings by comparison have played the toughest schedule to date, hence their negative -8.2PPG differential. NY is 12-2 SU on the season but are 3-9 ATS at home as a favorite. The Wings have failed to cover as a double-digit dog in their last three games in that role but that was also without Sabally in the lineup. The Wings have covered 4 of the last six meetings dating back to the start of the 22 season. We like the situation and the dog here.

#430 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Pick'em over New Orleans, Sunday at 8 PM ET - The Niners are coming off a 17-13 loss @ Tennessee last week in a game where none of their starters played.  Even with that, San Fran outgained Tennessee on a YPP basis (5.3 to 4.9) but ran 14 fewer offensive snaps.  Both of the 49er TD drives were 70+ yards while Tennessee has a 15 yard TD drive after a SF turnover which was the difference.  Head coach Shanahan has said he’s playing his starters this week at home including QB Purdy who did not see the field last weekend.  The rotation behind Purdy is solid with Josh Dobbs, who started 13 games last year for Arizona & Minnesota, along with Brandon Allen who has some solid NFL experience.  New Orleans is coming off a win last week 16-14 on a last second FG vs Arizona.  The Saints were lucky to come away with a win in that one as they were outgained by 40+ years and on a YPP basis 4.8 to 4.3.  They were also outrushed by the Cards 4.7 YPC to 3.5 YPC, not ideal facing a 49er team that finished 4th in the NFL in rushing last year.  The QB rotation for New Orleans isn’t as strong as San Fran with rookie Rattler and 2nd year man Haener as the options behind starter Derek Carr.  It will also be the 2nd straight weekend the Saints travel to the west coast after facing Arizona on the road last week.  The Niners are the deeper team and we like the fact they are coming off a loss.  They should play with some urgency at home in this one and all we need is an outright win.  Take San Francisco on Sunday night.

ASA top play on Seattle Storm -2.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 3:30 PM ET - The pace of play or tempo for this game should be fast as the Storm are the 5th fastest paced team in the league at 97.90 possessions per game, the Fever are 6th at 96.92. In terms of offense, Storm are 5th in O-Net rating, the Fever are 6th. Seattle is the more efficient team averaging 1.047-points per possession, Indiana checks in at 1.034PPP, both rank in the top half of the league. The big difference between these two teams is defensively. The Storm are 3rd in Defensive Net Rating (94), the Fever are second to last at 108.2. Indiana is 7-5 SU at home this season, but they do have a negative average point differential of minus -1.7PPG. These two teams have met 3 times this season with the Storm winning all three and the last two came by 15 and 12-points. Seattle is off an upset loss in Atlanta, while the Fever just got a big win over Phoenix. We like the Storm to bounce back here.

#200029 ASA PLAY ON Crystal Palace +0.25 (-126) at Brentford, Sunday at 9 AM ET - Crystal Palace looks quite strong in terms of their starting 11 after the off-season changes they made. Brentford has a defense that is looking a bit depleted entering this one. The Bees are at home and are a tough club in their own right but we like the way this Crystal Palace club is headed and getting the +0.25 goal means we can still earn some cash even if this match ends in a draw here. Last season Crystal Palace had only 8 road losses in 19 road matches while Brentford had only 5 home wins in 19 home matches. The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one. We will take Crystal Palace on the goal line in this one.

#929 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 9:38 PM ET - The Braves expected to start Chris Sale in this one and the Angels are likely trotting out Griffin Canning to the mound for this one.  Sale is 13-3 with a 2.61 ERA this season.  Canning is 4-10 with a 5.11 ERA on the year.  Sale is off an outing in which he threw 7 scoreless innings on the road and he has now allowed a total of only 13 earned runs in his last 10 road starts!  Canning has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 7 of his last 11 starts.  In addition to the starting pitching edge here for Atlanta, the Braves are seeking to bounce back from a 3-2 loss yesterday here in Anaheim.  The Braves are now off B2B road losses but this followed wins in 8 of 11 away from home.  Atlanta has not lost more than 2 straight road games since two months ago - all the way back in the middle of June!  The Braves had scored 6.3 runs per game in their 8-3 run on the road prior to these B2B losses.  We look for them to bounce back strong here against Canning and the hosts will not be able to keep up.  This is an Angels team that has averaged only 2.9 runs scored per game in their last 7 games.  Los Angeles is on a 5-9 run in home games and has scored only 2.4 runs per game in their last 9 games played here in Anaheim.  The Angels bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom half of the majors while the Braves bullpen ERA is among the top 3 teams in the majors!  The Braves are 22-13 in interleague action this season and 51 of their 64 wins on the season have come by 2 or more runs.  Lay the run line in this one!

#966 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - This game is being priced with too much emphasis on the starting pitching match-up and, even then, there is a flawed perception here!  When one first looks at this match-up they see Garrett Crochet with a 3.65 ERA this season and a 3.30 ERA in his career.  One also sees Spencer Arrighetti, a rookie, with a 5.14 ERA this season!  Before we even get into the vast difference between the recent trending of the White Sox and Astros, there is also a big difference in trending between these pitchers and it is not what one would expect given those numbers.  Arrighetti has been pitching like a phenom of late while Crochet is dealing with a major stretch of struggles!  The Astros Arrighetti has been charged with only 11 earned runs on just 20 hits in his last 5 starts and these have covered 31 innings on the mound!  Also, Arrighetti has struck out 33 in 19 innings over his last 3 starts!  Crochet has not lasted more than 4 innings in any of his last 6 starts and has averaged 3 innings per start!  Behind him is a very bad White Sox bullpen and also Crochet has given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings in his 4 outings since the All Star break!  About these teams, the Astros have won 8 straight games and have soared to 1st place in the NL West.  The White Sox, on other hand, are going down this season as one of the worst teams in all-time MLB history.  They head into this one with just 2 wins in 28 games and also are 11-49 on the road this season.  The Astros wins this season have featured 80% of them coming by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Chicago's losses have seen 68 of 93 come by a multi-run margin.  Strong odds on yet another blowout loss for the White Sox in this one.  Lay the run line in this one!

#114 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets +2.5 over Washington Commanders, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Commanders will be sending rookie QB Daniels under center to start on Saturday and we expect him to have big problems vs this Jets defense.  The 2 teams had a joint practice on Thursday in New York and the NY defense dominated as we expected.  Daniels was 7 of 15 passing but all of his completions were screens and check downs.  It’s been reported that he had only 25 yards passing on those 7 completions.  Washington’s offensive line is not a strong point (ranked 19th per PFF) and they are banged up on top of that.  Three potential starters sat out Thursday’s joint practice and most likely won’t play on Saturday.  That’s bad news vs a Jets defensive line that is talented and deep (ranked #1 per PFF).  We look for Washington’s offense to struggle big time on Saturday vs this deep NY defense.  On the other side the Jets sat QB Rodgers for the joint practice on Thursday and they still moved the ball well on the Commanders defense with veteran Tyrod Taylor at the helm.  Rodgers won’t play in this game on Saturday but Taylor, who has over 12,000 career passing yards, should get lots of run with 3rd string QB Travis out with an injury.  Jets head coach Saleh has been a successful pre-season coach with a 6-3 overall record including a perfect 3-0 in his first NFLX game each season.  The Jets are the better overall team and much stronger on both lines of scrimmage.  We’ll take NY at home on Saturday.

ASA play on Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Friday, 7 PM ET - The first aspect of this game we will discuss is the QB rotations for both teams. Depth is critical in NFLx games, and the deeper teams have a clear advantage later in the game. The Texans are the clear-cut choice here when it comes to QB depth. Texans will start and play CJ Stroud and the other starters into the 1st quarter. They will then turn over the QB duties to Davis Mills, Case Keenum and Tim Boyle. Davis/Keenum have a combined 114 career NFL games under center, including several starts. Tim Boyle has even played in 20 games dating back to 2019. In the shortened action in the preseason HOF opener the 3 Texan QB’s combined to go 19/27 for 197 passing yards with 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s. The Steelers have a QB battle going on in camp, but Russell Wilson will not play in this game and HC Tomlin says Justin Fields won’t start and will only see limited action. Pittsburgh was in the bottom ten teams in the league in Offensive total yards while managing just 17.9PPG which ranked 28th. Houston on the other hand was 12th in total yards gained last season while putting up 22.2PPG. The Texans hold the advantage defensively here too as they gave up 330.7YPG a year ago versus the Steelers who allowed 342.1YPG. We like the aspect of the Texans having live game experience under their belt after the Hall of Fame game while the Steelers are just getting started. We will lay the points with Houston.

#972 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Mariners Luis Castillo has a 2.82 ERA at home this season. He is off a fantastic July in which he went 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA. Seattle was off yesterday after a 6-0 shutout loss to the Phillies Sunday. The Mariners will be ready to bounce back off that loss here and had won 6 of 8 games before that loss. The Tigers have lost 9 of 12 games and scored only 2.8 runs a game in these dozen games. Detroit starter Keider Montero has allowed 19 earned runs in his last 4 starts and had allowed 5 earned runs in 3 straight outings before being charged with 4 earned runs in his most recent one. The rookie is 1-5 this season and opponents have hit .298 against him on the road this season. This one is set up well for the Mariners to roll big at home. The Tigers are off a 1-run loss but this followed a stretch where each of their 6 losses came by a minimum margin of 4 runs! We will lay the 1.5 runs here with confidence. The Mariners most recent win was by 1 run but this followed a stretch where each of their 9 victories prior to that one were by 2 or more runs. Lay the run line in this one!

#216554 ASA PLAY ON Guadalajara +0.25 goals (-125) over LA Galaxy, Sunday at 10:30 ET - This one being played in Leagues Cup action. There is some goal line available at +0.25 in the marketplace if you lay the juice (-125 range) and we like the value with this as a draw is what Guadalajara needs to advance to the knockout stages. As for Los Angeles, they are already guaranteed of advancing. So this one sets up nicely for a rather disinterested LA club to go through the motions and Guadalajara can play a safe game as well and play for the draw. We do expect Guadalajara to do enough to get the win here but if they do not, then look for this to be a draw. Once Guadalajara gets that first one (we just can not see LA scoring first given the metrics for this one), they can really settle in and play a game characterized by a defensive-first mentality the rest of the way as they then look to just protect the lead in this one. We just do not see LA pushing the tempo too much in this one and the hungry underdog manages to at least get the much-needed draw here even if this one becomes a drab 0-0 or perhaps 1-1 affair. We will take Guadalajara on the goal line in this one.

#216526 ASA PLAY ON Monterrey PK (-145) over Pumas, Saturday at 10 ET - This one being played in Leagues Cup action. There is some goal line available in the marketplace if you lay the juice (-145 range) and we like the value with this as a draw would then become a push. We do expect Monterrey to get the win but if they do not, then look for this to be a draw. We just can not see Pumas getting an upset here. Once Monterrey gets that first one, look for the floodgates to open up for them in this one. We are getting line value here because Monterrey has underachieved recently but now all the chips are on the table and we look for this to bring out the best in them here. They have more talent and better attacking talent than Pumas and this will show up on the pitch in this one now that it is do or die time. This is when the elite stars shine! We will take Monterrey in this one.

#974 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge. The Astros have lost 3 straight games but are a perfect 3-0 since mid-May when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3+ games.  Houston was on a 43-25 run prior to this 3-game losing streak and we look for them to bounce right back here.  The Astros are starting Framber Valdez here and he is 5-2 at home this season.  He had a tough May but since then has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 10 starts.  The Pirates are starting Jake Woodford here.  He performed well on a minor-league contract after previously pitching with the White Sox earlier this season.  The trouble is, just like his starts earlier this season with the White Sox, Woodford has not performed well at the MLB level.  Woodford had a 10.80 ERA earlier this season for Chicago.  Also, last season for St Louis, Woodford had a 6.23 ERA in 15 games (8 starts).  Opponents hit .314 against him last season with the Cardinals and he got hit hard with the White Sox earlier this season too.  Now his debut with the Pirates and we expect his struggles to resume at the MLB level.  47 of 55 Houston wins have been by a margin of 2 or more runs.  18 of 26 Pittsburgh road losses by a margin of 2 or more runs this season.  Big edges all around for the home team here.  There is a reason Houston is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the home team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#960 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 2:35 PM ET - We have stayed away from this series after we got burned with a 1-run win in the first game of the series and we had the run line.  Laying the -1.5 runs on the run line to avoid laying big prices always carries with it the risk of getting burned by a 1-run win but we like our chances for a home blowout in the series finale here.  Texas is going for the sweep and Chicago has now lost 10 straight games!  Note that the White Sox have scored only 2 runs per game last 11 games and the last 10 games in this low-scoring stretch have all been losses.  56 of 77 Chicago losses this season have come by a multi-run margin.  Texas has scored 5 runs per game last 20 games and has won 11 of 15 games.  Rangers build off the momentum of 3 straight wins in this series punctuated by the huge 10-2 win yesterday.  We look for the Rangers to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings.  The starting pitching match-up is expected to be Max Scherzer versus Jonathan Cannon.  Scherzer is off a tougher start but it came against the league-best hitting Orioles.  Now he faces the league-worst hitting White Sox!  He takes advantage and dominates.  Scherzer is still getting back to full strength after missing time with injury but this is a guy who has dominated for many years and facing light-hitting Chicago will help him round back into top form!  As for Cannon, he is a rookie and is 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA in his road starts and opponents hitting .313 against him away from home.  He catches the Rangers lineup confident off the 10-run outburst yesterday.  The surge continues here in a home blowout.  Lay it!

#208009 ASA PLAY ON Independiente PK +110 over Instituto, Thursday at 8 ET - This one in  Argentine Primera Division action. This is a value spot for Independiente on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK +110 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Independiente but it is definitely nice to have that added value with this line. Independiente has gone undefeated in the last 5 meetings between these clubs with 3 wins and 2 draws. They have been the much better club from a defensive standpoint and, amazingly, have allowed only 3 goals in their 9 road matches this season! Instituto, on the other hand, has scored better than their opponents in this match but they have also allowed 1.3 goals per match when at home this season. We get excellent line value here with the better defensive team that also has owned this series in recent seasons. We expect a solid Independiente win here though we will grab the goal line at a pick'em so we have the added insurance in case this is a draw. Take Independiente Thursday evening.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -3.5 vs. Connecticut Sun, 7 PM ET - These are the two top teams in the Eastern Conference, but one of these teams has dominated the other when it comes to head-to-head action. The Liberty are 3-0 SU this season versus the Sun and have won 9 of the last ten meetings. In the most recent meeting, the Liberty were a 2.5-point favorite in Connecticut and won 71-68. Statistically there are many similarities as the Liberty score 86PPG and allow 77PPG compared to the Sun who score 80PPG and give up 72.5PPG. When it comes to Net Rating the Liberty hold the advantage 11.9 compared to 9.6. The one glaring advantage the Liberty have is their EFG% which is 52.8% and best in the league versus the Sun team that ranks 9th at 48.1%. This is obviously a matchup problem for the Sun who obviously have a great team overall, but just don’t have a configuration to beat this New York team. The Liberty are 9-1 SU their last 10 at home, 15-5 their last twenty and 23-7 SU on their home court their last thirty games.