#273 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2.5 over LA Chargers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We like backing the Ravens off a loss in this one. They are 6-1 ATS the game following their last 7 SU losses. Their 18-16 loss @ Pittsburgh last week was very misleading as Baltimore outgained Pitt 6.1 YPP to 4.1 YPP. The Ravens also had 3 turnovers which led directly to half of Pittsburgh’s points (9) and they missed 2 FG’s. It was a game Baltimore should have won and we look for them to bounce back strong on Monday night. The Chargers have a solid 7-3 record but they’ve played the 30th ranked strength of schedule thus far and have just 1 win over a team that is currently above .500 (Denver). Their other wins have come against were Carolina, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Cleveland, Tennessee, and Cincinnati who have a combined record of 20-46. Despite their easy slate thus far, the Chargers YPP differential is +0.3 which is 10th in the NFL compared to Baltimore’s +1.5 YPP differential with is #1 in the league. LA is only outgaining their opponents on a YPG basis by +9 yards (Ravens are +69 YPG). The Charger defense has good overall numbers, however when they finally faced an offense with a pulse last week, the Bengals put up 452 yards and 27 points. We don’t see them slowing down this Raven’s offense that has been historically good to date averaging 7.0 YPP. To put that in perspective, over the last 20+ years, no team in the NFL has ended the season with a YPP of more than 6.7. Baltimore hasn’t been great as a heavy favorite when Lamar Jackson starts at QB, however as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog they are 25-6 ATS in the regular season.

#838 ASA PLAY ON North Texas -6.5 over Oregon State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Rough situation for Oregon State who is playing their first road game of the season after losing at home to archrival Oregon on Thursday. The Beavers were 6.5 point home dogs in that game and lost 78-75 blowing a double digit 2nd half lead in the process. Now they head out on the road where they have a terrible 2-31 SU record in true road games since the start of the 2021 season. Their opponent, North Texas, is a veteran team with an 8 man rotation of all juniors and seniors. This is a tough team that plays a slow pace and outstanding defense (38th in 3 point FG defense & 52nd in defensive efficiency). The Mean Green are 4-1 on the season and they’ve played a much tougher schedule than OSU (79th SOS compared to 320th for Oregon State). They are undefeated at home and have won 38 of their last 46 games at the Super Pit in Denton, TX. UNT has better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, they shoot the 3 at a higher percentage, they are one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (14th) and they turn teams over at a 21% rate (67th). They already have a win @ Minnesota and this is a big time home game for the Mean Green. Lay it.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -5.5 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - We have learned our lesson of fading the Magic and will back them here against the Hornets as a road favorite. Looking at the Hornets recent schedule we see they were +2-point home dog to the Piston and +4 at home against the Bucks. Neither the Pistons or Bucks rank as high as the Magic in our power rankings. Orlando has the 3rd best Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +4.1. The biggest difference between these two teams is defensively as the Magic allow just 1.061-points per possession (3rd) compared to the Hornets who allow 1.160PPP (19th). Charlotte is a few spots ahead of the Magic in terms of OEFF but it’s marginal. Orlando has won 8 of their last nine games overall with 6 of those wins coming by double digits. Charlotte will be without starting PF Grant Williams tonight, which is significant considering the multiple injuries they already have. These two teams met earlier in November and the Magic won, going away 114-89. We like the Magic by 10+ tonight.

#263 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +7.5 over Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans continue to find ways to lose games, but we wouldn’t be surprised if they won this game outright. Tennessee has the 11th rated defense in terms of DVOA and give up the 4th fewest yards per play at 4.8YPP. The question surrounding the Titans each week is their offense and QB Will Levis. Levis has actually played well the last two weeks with 3 TD’s to 1 INT and completing 23/54 passes for 470 total yards. Tennessee’s offense is averaging just 4.9YPP for the season but they have improved that number to 5.5YPP in their last three games. Houston has regressed offensively in recent weeks going from 5.2YPP on the season to just 4.8YPP in their last three games. They put up big numbers last week against the Cowboys, but who doesn’t these days. Houston is very good defensively this season allowing just 4.9YPP but they had several key starters out this week with injuries. Tennessee’s last four losses have come against: Minnesota, LA Chargers, Detroit and Buffalo who all rate substantially better than Houston. The Texans are off a MNF win over instate Dallas and will letdown against this 2-win Titans team. Grab the points.

#252 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +7.5 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a great buy low/sell high spot to fade the Lions and bet on the Colts. Detroit is rolling with a 9-1 SU/ 8-2 ATS record which has driven this number up above a touchdown. The Lions are coming off a 52-6 shellacking of the Jaguars and have a short week of prep for a Thanksgiving Day game and may not be entirely focused here. The competitive Colts are coming off a road win over the Jets which wasn’t a fluke as they outgained the New York by +0.1YPP. Colts QB Richardson played one of his best games in the NFL going 20/30 for 272 yards with a TD. Indianapolis, with Richardson under center, have now won 4 of his last five starts. The Lions have a few key injuries defensively and it's unrealistic to expect them to continue to play at this extremely high level. The Colts defense has the right zone-scheme to counter the Lions QB Goff who has struggled in games versus this system. Two weeks ago, against a similar defense, Goff threw 5 INT’s to Houston. The Colts have not been a home dog of more points this season and the Lions haven’t laid more than a TD on the road. The Colts running game which averages 4.5 per attempt should keep Indianapolis in this game from start to finish.

#258 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Commanders -10 over Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Cowboys have some big-time problems. Players are complaining about the coach, their defense has dropped way off from top 10 in YPP allowed last year to 30th this year, and their offense under backup QB Rush hasn’t been able to score (16 points in 2 games). If Dallas was going to rally and play well, it would have been at home during their last 2 games vs archrival Philadelphia and on Monday night in front of the whole world vs Houston. They didn’t rally to say the least. They looked terrible losing those games by a combined score of 68-16. Now they go on the road, on a short week after playing Monday night, vs a rested opponent. Washington played on Thursday and lost vs the Eagles. The Commanders will be hungry here after losing 2 straight (vs Pitt & Philly – 2 of the better teams in the NFL) and they were rolled twice by the Cowboys last season. The Dallas defense has allowed at least 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games and they are facing a Washington offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in total offense, YPP offense, and Rushing. Their running game is putting up 148 YPG and that plays directly into the Cowboys biggest weakness on defense as they rank 31st allowing 151 YPG rushing. The Commander’s defense has been trending up allowing 5.3 YPP over their last 3 and even better at home this year where they give up only 4.6 YPP. New Washington head coach Quinn was the Cowboys DC last year so he should have a pretty good idea on how to defend an already struggling offense. Mike McCarthy is just 13-31-1 SU and 14-31 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2017 and Dallas has a home game on Thanksgiving on deck so don’t be surprised if that’s the game they are more focused on. Something is wrong in Dallas and we think they get rolled here.

ASA play on LA Lakers -4.5 vs. Denver Nuggets – 10:40 PM ET - This has become a heated rivalry in the NBA, and to be honest, the Nuggets have dominated the Lakers with a 9-1 SU record the last ten meetings. Denver has eliminated the Lakers from the playoffs two straight years. LA catches the Nuggets off a game last night against the Mavericks in Denver. The Nuggets were down by as many as 24-points in that game, battled back and took a lead in the 4th Q, only to lose by 3-points. The Lakers meanwhile were home resting following a loss on Thursday at home to the Magic. LA is now 7-1 SU on their home court with an average +/- of +7.3ppg. When betting on the Lakers its always important to know if their star players are going to play or show up for a game which will be the case tonight in this revenge spot against Denver. The Nuggets expended a ton of energy last night and will have a tough time getting back up for this game in Los Angeles.

#144 ASA TOP PLAY ON Old Dominion -2.5 over Marshall, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is a huge game for ODU who needs to win their last 2 games to get to 6 wins and bowl eligible. The Monarchs are coming off a 35-32 home loss vs James Madison, one of the top teams in the Sun Belt. ODU actually outplayed JMU in the stats averaging 6.3 YPP to 5.7 YPP. A week earlier, ODU lost @ App State 28-20 but outgained the Mountaineers by more than 100 yards but had 4 turnovers. Prior to that the Monarchs were on a roll winning 3 in a row all by 7+ points and despite losing their last 2, they are still playing very well. We could conceivably be looking at a 5 game winning streak for Old Dominion. Marshall did the opposite last week. They beat Coastal Carolina at home but were outgained by more than 1.0 YPP in that win. The Herd scored a TD on a blocked punt and also had a 2 yard TD drive after a Coastal turnover (CC had 3 turnovers). Marshall has very rarely ventured on the road as of late with 5 of their last 7 games coming at home. They’ve only played 2 conference road games so far beating USM, the worst team in the Sun Belt, and losing @ Georgia Southern. The Herd are 5-1 in conference play in 1st place in the Sun Belt East yet are underdogs vs ODU who is 3-3 in conference play and 4-6 overall? It’s the Monarch’s home finale and we like them to win and cover on Saturday keeping their bowl hopes alive.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +9.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The O/U on this game is very low at 206.5 which makes the points available in this game even more attractive than normal. First off, the Pistons will be a man short tonight with Cade Cunningham out with an injury. Typically, when a team loses an important piece like Cunningham, the player filling in for him rises to the occasion in that first game. The Pistons will insert Malik Beasley into the starting lineup who has been playing well off the bench averaging 15.5ppg, 3.2rpg and 1.6apg. Detroit is much better this season with a 7-10 SU record and an average margin of victory of minus -1.2ppg. That number is significantly better than the -9.1ppg differential they had last season. Detroit is 11th in defensive efficiency rating and hold teams to an average of 111.6ppg. Of the Pistons 10 losses this season only 3 have come by more than 10-points. Orlando is playing really well right now, but they are also coming off a tough 3-game West Coast Road trip and an upset win over the Lakers in their most recent game. The Magic are 10-7 SU with an average +/- of +3.6ppg. In a low scoring game we will grab the points with the live underdog.

#141 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi -11.5 over Florida, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Ole Miss is coming off a bye after dominating Georgia 2 weeks ago 28-10. They outgained the Bulldogs in that win by 150 yards and held them to just 59 yards rushing in 1.8 YPC. That a UGA team many still consider among the best few in the country as they’ve already beaten Texas on the road by double digits and beat Tennessee by 2 TD’s last week. The Rebs absolutely dominated that game and with 2 losses, they need to win out to make sure they are included in the College FB playoff. While Ole Miss is rested off a bye, the Florida defense could be in trouble here as they were on the field for 42 minutes and a whopping 92 plays last week in their win over LSU, a game the Tigers outgained the Gators. Now they face an up tempo Rebel offense that ranks 2nd nationally in total offense, 2nd in YPP, and averages 41 PPG. The previous 2 weeks Florida lost by 2 TD’s to UGA and by 32 points vs Texas. Gator true freshman QB Lagway isn’t 100% (hamstring) and will have problem vs a great Ole Miss defense that ranks 6th nationally in YPP allowed and 2nd in rush defense giving up only 79 YPG on the ground. Lagway didn’t have a rushing attempt last week which simply solidifies the fact he’s not 100%. Teams simply can’t run on the Rebels which will put a lot of pressure on Lagway to make plays through the air to stay in this game. He’s been pretty average this year for the most part completing only 58% of his passes with 7 TD’s and 5 picks. The Ole Miss defense is in the top 5 nationally in pressure rate which will make it tough on the young QB, especially if they can’t run the ball which we’ve stated we don’t think they will. Ole Miss is an impressive +3.2 YPP margin vs very good competition (Florida is +0.7 YPP). The Rebels are good enough to win the National Championship this year but they need to win out to have a chance. They’ve already won 3 true road games by 24+ points and we see another one here.

#842 ASA PLAY ON Arizona -1 over Duke, Friday at 10:30 PM ET - Arizona is coming off a 103-88 loss at Wisconsin but they’ve had a full week to let that stew and get ready for this game vs Duke. In that loss, the Wildcats shot 38% from field, 17% from 3 (4 of 23) and made 28 of 40 FT’s. Wisconsin shot 48% overall, 44% from 3 and 41 of 47 FT’s. Arizona destroyed the Badgers on the boards 44 to 27 and we expect them to have the advantage on the glass again tonight but they should shoot MUCH better at home. Duke is a very young team with 3 freshmen in their starting line up and they are playing their first true road game of the season. Their only game this season played away from Cameron Indoor Stadium was vs Kentucky in Atlanta and the Blue Devils lost that game 77-72. Kentucky is solid but they have an entirely new roster and a new head coach so they are figuring things out early in the season. Duke now makes they long travel west for the first road game vs an Arizona team that is almost unbeatable at home winning 51 of their last 54 home games. Not that Duke is looking past Arizona, but they do have another huge game on deck vs Kansas. We think this inexperience Blue Devil team will be very good but may take some time to figure things out, especially on the road early in the season. Zona has had a week to think about their poor effort @ Wisconsin and we like them to get the home win and cover on Friday night.

#818 ASA TOP PLAY ON Southern Indiana +3.5 over South Dakota, Friday at 8 PM ET - Tough spot for South Dakota who just played @ Western Michigan on Wednesday night and now on the road 2 days later. They beat WMU 80-76 thanks in part to 8 more FT’s made but the Coyotes got creamed on the boards 53 to 38. The Broncos shot only 18% from deep (4 of 22) so with that stat and the extra FT’s made, South Dakota was a bit fortunate to come away with the win. They were favored by 2.5 on the road in that game and now 2 nights later they are favored by 4 (opening number) on the road vs a team that is power rated higher than Western Michigan. We can’t expect a team that has been terrible on the road (South Dakota is 5-24 SU on the road since the start of the 2022 season) to not only win back to back road games, but win this one by more than 4 points. Southern Indiana has had a full week off to get ready for this one and while they are 1-4 on the season, some of their losses have been pretty solid if that’s a thing. They lost @ DePaul (who is currently undefeated) in OT and lost to a very solid mid major program, Bucknell, also in OT. This is just their 2nd home game of the season and the Eagles have to feel they have a great shot to get a home win here. Neither team has been good defensively (both outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency) but Southern Indiana has shot the 3 ball much better (37% to 29% for South Dakota) and they are the better FT shooting team (74% to 65% for South Dakota). We look for this veteran USI team (6 upperclassmen in their top 7) to pick up a win tonight and even if they don’t, we can’t see South Dakota winning this one by margin. Take the points.

ASA top play on Brooklyn Nets +6 at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - Despite being a dominant player in the NBA (when he plays), It’s become evident that Joel Embiid is a cancer on any roster. The Sixers are 2-12 SU this season, 3-11 ATS and don’t compete on a nightly basis. Philly has the 4th worse Efficiency Differential at -9.1 compared to Brooklyn who has an eDIFF of -3.1. Consider this, the Nets have been +8.5 and +10 at New York recently and are now catching +6-points at Philadelphia? The feisty Nets are 10-4-1 ATS this season and have been competitive in road losses at New York by 10 and 2-points, at Cleveland by 5 and Boston by 4-points all in the last month. The 76ers have one home win this season over the Charlotte Hornets by 2-points in OT. Brooklyn beat this Sixers team twice last season and can easily win this road date tonight. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4.5 vs Orlando Magic, 10:30 pm ET - The Magic are in a tough scheduling spot here with this being the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. They are coming off a loss last night to the Clippers 93-104 and trailed by as many as 18-points in that game. The Magic have gotten off to a solid 9-7 SU start and are winning with their defense. The Magic rank 2nd in Defensive Efficiency allowing just 1.046 points per possession. Orlando’s offense has struggled though, ranking 25th in Offensive Efficiency. A tired Magic defense will have a tough time slowing down the Lakers offense that is 4th in points per possession at 1.184 and has scored 120 or more points in 4 of their last five games. Los Angeles has added a viable perimeter scoring option in Dalton Knecht who gives them the 3-point threat they desperately needed. The Lakers are 8th in team EFG% compared to the Magic who rank 25th in that stat category. Yes, the Lakers defense is not good, but this is a game where they can simply outscore a tired opponent. Orlando is 15-16 ATS their last 31 when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.5ppg. Lastly, when we take a closer look at the Magic’s road results we see they have a 1-6 SU record on the road against similar competition to the Lakers. Overall, the Magic have a negative road point differential of minus -6.1ppg, the Lakers home differential is an average of +8.4ppg.

#728 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Pick'em over Memphis, Thursday at 10 PM ET - This is a tough situational spot for Memphis. They make the long travel to San Francisco, and they leave right after this game for Hawaii and face National Champ UConn on Monday in the Maui Invitational. On top of that this is a late start at 10 PM ET. The Tigers may not be fully focused here and if not, they will lose this game in our opinion. The Dons were a solid 23-11 last season and they bring back a bunch of their key players from that team with 3 starters back and 4 of their top 6 scorers from last season. Nearly 60% of their minutes return. This is a huge game for USF vs a national brand type team with Memphis coming to town so this veteran squad (4 seniors in the starting line up) will be fully focused. Memphis is talented but they bring nearly a completely new team to the court this season with 7 of their top 8 players coming from the transfer portal. We think this team will have their ups and downs with a below average coach, Penny Hardaway, at the helm. Especially in tough situations like this. Memphis has hit nearly 50% of their 3 point shots so far this season and that has to regress on the road vs a very good defensive team. USF ranks 23rd in eFG% allowed and in the top 70 in defensive efficiency (ranked in top 40 in defensive efficiency last season). While this is not the Dons actual home court (Golden State Warriors home court in San Francisco) they do play here a few times during the season so they are used to this venue. In games played at their home court and here last season USF was 15-2 with their only 2 losses coming vs Gonzaga (27-8 record last season) and St Mary’s (26-8 record last season). We think San Francisco has a solid coaching edge here as well with Chris Gerlufsen sporting a very good 47-15 record in his 3 seasons here. We’ll call for USF to get the outright win on Thursday.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Browns +3.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re catching Cleveland coming off an embarrassing road performance @ New Orleans, a game they were actually favored and lost 35-14.  That was a bit misleading as the game was tied 14-14 in the 4th quarter.  Despite only scoring 2 TD’s the offensive numbers for the Browns were solid putting up 443 yards on over 6.0 YPP in that loss.  They had opportunities missing 2 FG’s and getting shut out on downs twice inside New Orleans territory.  The defense was embarrassed as the entered last weekend allowing just 328 YPG but gave up 473 yards to New Orleans.  We look for that unit to bounce back strong at home vs their arch rival.  Pittsburgh is in a rough spot coming off a hard fought 18-16 home win over Baltimore pushing the Steelers into 1st place in the AFC North.  They were extremely fortunate in that game as Pitt was outgained by a full 2.0 YPP (6.1 YPP for Baltimore to 4.1 for Pitt) but benefitted from 3 Raven turnovers and 2 missed FG’s.  Off that huge win we would expect a bit of a letdown going on the road on a short week.  The Steelers, in fact, have a 7-14 ATS record under Tomlin the game after beating the Ravens.  On top of that, AFC North underdogs have been money in the bank with a 26-16 ATS record since 2021.  Cleveland showed us just a few weeks ago that can get it done at home as a division dog beating Baltimore 29-24 and outgaining the Ravens as well so it was no fluke.  Believe it or not, Pittsburgh has never won a division road game on Thursday night (short week) going 0-7 SU in that role.  The weather looks dicey on Thursday night with rain/snow mix and strong winds.  That should lead to a lower scoring game making the points (especially above 3) more valuable.  The host has won and covered 5 straight in this rivalry and Pittsburgh has only won once in their last six trips to Cleveland.  This is just a bad spot for Pittsburgh and Cleveland would like nothing more than to knock off their rival at home tonight.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +8 at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - The Hawks are playing above expectations this season in large part because of better defensive play. They aren’t great defensively by any means as they allow 1.163-points per possession, but that is lower than the 1.194PPP they gave up last season. They rank 22nd in DEFF this season after ranking 26th a year ago. Dyson Daniels for the Hawks is a big reason for the defensive uptick for the Hawks with 44 steals to start the season, most in the league. Atlanta has a negative point differential of minus -3.4ppg and have been ultra-competitive in recent weeks with 5 of their last seven games decided by 5-points or less. In their last five road games they have impressive wins over the Celtics and Kings along with a victory in New Orleans and two close losses at Portland and Detroit. One aspect I don’t like regarding this bet is the fact that the Warriors are coming off a loss. Golden State is 19-19 ATS their last 38 when coming off a loss with an average margin of +3.2ppg. The Hawks/Warriors have split the last four games and only one of those games was decided by more than tonight’s point spread. Grab the points with Atlanta.

ASA NBA top play on Chicago Bulls +8 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - We backed the Bucks the other night and lost when they hosted the Rockets and won but failed to cover the -3.5-point spread. Milwaukee is just not the team everyone expected them to be this season with a 5-9 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.1ppg (19th). The Bulls are 6-9 SU this season and have already beaten this Milwaukee team this season by double-digits on this same court. Looking at the Efficiency Differential for each team we find there isn’t as big a difference as this line would suggest. The Bucks are -2.4 in eDIFF, the Bulls are -5.8. Last season in four meetings these two teams played overtime twice in close games and the other two were decided by 9 and 16-points. That was without Zach Lavine in the Bulls lineup. LaVine is averaging over 21ppg, over 3 made 3-pointers per game, 4 assists per game and over 5 rebounds per game. Chicago has won 3 of their last four road games outright with the lone loss in that stretch coming at Cleveland. We expect a close game throughout and will grab the points with the Bulls.

#107 ASA PLAY ON Ohio +2.5 over Toledo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These teams are battling to get to Detroit for the MAC Championship.  Ohio has the edge now with a 5-1 conference record while Toledo sits at 4-2.  We like the Bobcats to control the line of scrimmage and ground game here which will go a long way on what is supposed to be a rainy and windy night in Toledo.  Ohio is tied for 1st place with Miami Oh and Bowling Green and the Bobcats have the best point differential in the league at +109 in conference games.  Toledo has a point differential of just +15 and is 1 game out of first place.  The Bobcats have the MAC’s #1 defense allowing just 260 YPG and they are allowing only 15 PPG which also ranks 1st.  Ohio is also solid on the other side of the ball ranking 2nd in the MAC in total offense and 1st in rushing offense putting up 215 YPG on the ground.  Toledo is just 8th in the MAC in total offense and 5th in total defense.  The Rockets can’t run the ball at all ranking outside the top 100 in YPG on the ground and YPC.  They are facing an Ohio defense that allows only 3.4 YPC (23rd nationally) and they give up barely 100 YPG rushing.  These 2 MAC foes have played nearly identical strength of schedules this season and Ohio is better in almost every category.  The Bobcats have a +1.1 YPP margin (Toledo is +0.6) and Ohio has a YPC margin of +1.8 (Toledo is +0.0 YPC).  The Rockets do have the edge passing the ball, however with windy weather expected (20+ MPH winds in the forecast as of Tuesday) we’ll take the team that should dominate the ground game.  We’re on the Bobcats plus the points. 

#642 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana -4.5 over Rice, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - Louisiana has played one of the tougher schedules in the nation early in the season. They faced the MAC favorite Kent and lost by 4 and faced Houston (a top 5 type team) on the road on Saturday and got destroyed. It was a tough spot for ULL as Houston was coming off a rare loss vs Auburn so the Cougs were out for blood. Off that embarrassing loss, we look for Louisiana to play very well at home tonight. Rice, on the other hand, has played one of the easiest schedules to date facing 3 teams ranked outside the top 280 and 2 of those opponents rank outside the top 300. The one good team they faced was Florida State and they lost that game in Houston, This will be the Owls first road game of the season. Rice is a team with a new coach and mainly new players with only 20% of their minutes returning for last season. Only 1 returning player in their top 6 and with the players learning a new system, we expect their first road game to be a tough one. The Ragin Cajuns were the 5th best team in the Sun Belt last year and they return 50% of their minutes from a year ago. Their coaching staff is also stable with head coach Bob Marlin returning for his 16th season and he’s been very successful with a career record of 492-322 at Sam Houston and ULL. The Cajun Dome is a very tough place for visitors to win with Louisiana winning 26 of their last 29 games here. Rice hasn’t shot the ball well ranking 237th in eFG% and 254th in adjusted efficiency despite facing 3 defenses already this season ranked outside the top 200 in efficiency. And those games were at home. We look for them to struggle offensively and a hungry Louisiana team to get the home win and cover.

ASA NBA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -3 vs. Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - At some point the Bucks are going to pop and play like the team that was projected to win 50+ games. This is a spot they could certainly ‘get right’ with a home win over a solid Western Conference team in the Rockets. Houston is playing the second night of a back-to-back after defeating Chicago by 36-points yesterday. This will also be the Rockets’ 3rd game in four days and 4th in six which is tough to overcome. Milwaukee meanwhile is off an upset loss in Charlotte on Saturday after a missed call late in the game cost them the ‘W’. Consider this, the Bucks were favored by 2-points earlier this month at home against the Cavaliers who might be the best team in the NBA and are now laying nearly that same number against the Rockets. This is a perfect opportunity to buy low on the Bucks who are 69-25 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.2ppg since 2022. In that same time frame the Rockets are 26-62 SU on the road with a negative point differential of minus -6.4ppg. Yes, this Houston team is improved and playing well but Giannis and the Bucks should get this home win by 6+ points.

#306625 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rio Grande Valley +19.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Badgers left it all on the court Friday night when they topped #9 Arizona 103-88. It was an all-in game for Wisconsin after getting embarrassed last year @ Arizona. It was a game they had circled and played about as well as they could play shooting almost 50% from the field, 44% from beyond the arc and they made a whopping 41 FT’s in the game (40% of their total points). Now just a few nights removed from that court storming win, they face a no-name Texas Rio Grande Valley team that is actually pretty good. They lost at Nebraska by 20 but the Huskers made 19 more FT’s in the game and it was a misleading final as it was just a 4 point margin with under 5:00 to play. TRGV also gave #14 Creighton all they could handle on the road losing by just 13 despite a 20 point deficit at the foul line. This team likes to shoot 3’s and they make nearly 12 per game (19th nationally). The Vaqueros (whatever that is) have some momentum after losing the 2 games discussed above and enter this one off 3 straight wins. They are a veteran team that goes 9 to 10 deep with 7 of those players being upperclassmen. Wisconsin’s will travel to West Virginia later in the week to play in a tournament that includes Pitt, LSU, and UCF and we just don’t see them being completely focused on this game. Badgers win but don’t cover this big number.

#471 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals +2 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Cincinnati is in must win mode here. With their 4-6 record, the Bengals currently sit in the 9th spot in the AFC playoff race (top 7 teams make it) but a loss here and they only have a 14% chance of making the post-season. A win gives them a 40% chance so this is basically a win at all costs game. They have extra time to get ready after losing @ Baltimore 35-34 last Thursday. The Bengals are 3-2 on the road and their 2 losses away from home came by a single point vs Baltimore & KC, arguably the 2 best or 2 of the 3 best teams in the NFL. Cincy led both of those games in the 4th quarter and had their chances to win in both. They’ve been competitive in every loss with the exception of Philadelphia with 5 of their 6 losses coming by a combined 16 points. A few breaks here and there and this team could have a much better record. The Chargers are sitting with a 6-3 record but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL to date (30th ranked SOS so far). Their wins have come vs Carolina, Las Vegas, Tennessee, Cleveland, New Orleans and Denver, not a single team in that group currently above .500. All of those teams have offenses that rank in the bottom half of the NFL and 5 of those 6 rank 22nd or lower in scoring. Now they face a Cincinnati team that can put points on the board (6th in scoring) and is rolling on offense scoring 75 points the last 2 weeks. Despite playing the tougher schedule and having the worse record, the Bengals have a better YPP differential. Joe Burrow is 15-6 ATS in his career as an underdog and he has been fantastic this season leading NFL in passing yards to go along with 24 TD’s (1st in the league) and just 4 picks. He has torched zone defenses in his career and the Chargers play a top 5 rate of zone defense. He also gets WR Higgins back this week so this offense should be full strength. LA doesn’t have much of a home field advantage and we like the Bengals to win this game outright.

#464 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +6 over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans are 1-8 ATS this season and because of that we’re getting some solid value with this number. Tennessee has actually been favored in each of their last 3 homes games vs New England, Indy, and Green Bay believe it or not. They were just +8 on the road @ the LA Chargers which would make LA around a 2 point favorite @ Tennessee. They were +10 @ Buffalo which would make the Bills around -4 if played at Tennessee. You get the point they are now getting nearly a full TD from a Minnesota team that is trending down according to our power ratings. After winning their first 5 games, the Vikings are just 2-2 their last 4 with an 8 point home win over Indy and a 5 point road win last week vs a Jacksonville team that was without QB Lawrence. The Minnesota offense has taken a big step back after averaging 29 PPG over their first 4, they have been held to 23 or less in 4 of their last 5 games and they are averaging 21 PPG during that stretch. QB Sam Darnold has come back to earth as well after a hot start with 4 of his QBR games coming in the last 5 contests. The Vikes are facing a very good Tennessee defense that ranks #1 in the NFL in pass defense, #2 in total defense, and #3 in YPP allowed. We look for Minnesota’s offense to continue their struggles. The Titans lost @ LA Chargers last week 27-17 but outgained LA on a YPP basis. They also rushed for 6.3 YPC vs a Charger defense that came into last week’s game allowing 4.7 YPC. The Titans actually have a dead even YPP differential which would normally equate to a much better overall record as this team has been unlucky. Tennessee looks pretty healthy right now and they are happy to be home playing just their 2nd home game since October 13th. A low scoring game is expected with this total currently sitting in the high 30’s so getting a full 6 points is even more valuable. We like Tennessee to keep this close and have a shot at the upset.

#453 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Browns +1 or Pick'em over New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Good spot for the Browns coming off a bye facing a Saints team that had a division game last week vs the Falcons. New Orleans ended their 7 game losing streak and won the game 20-17 but they were outgained by more than 100 yards. New Orleans QB Carr was very comfortable (0 sacks for Atlanta) vs a Falcon defense that can’t put any pressure on the QB. They rank dead last in pressure rate and sack percentage averaging less than 1 sack per game. Now Carr, whose splits are much worse vs pressure as to be expected, faces a rested Cleveland defense that ranks in the top 5 in sack percentage. It should be a different story for the Saints offense this week after they were only able to put up 20 points vs basically no pressure last Sunday. Off the bye we’re hearing Cleveland is as healthy as they’ve been all season. We expect the Browns to have some offensive success here vs a banged up New Orleans defense that ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.0 YPP. Cleveland beat Baltimore 2 weeks and ago and they’ve actually outgained 2 of their last 3 opponents with QB Winston in the line up. Their offense has averaged 343 YPG of the last 3 (up 75 yards from season total) and they are up +0.4 YPP as well over their last 3. Winston has brought some life to this offense and he should have some extra incentive here after the Saints basically cut him loose in the off-season. New Orleans fired their head coach prior to last week’s game and that often gives a team the 1 game jump. We wouldn’t even call it that last weekend as the Saints were outplayed but came away with a tight win. They come back to earth Sunday and we like the Browns to win this game.

#664 ASA PLAY ON Towson -3 over James Madison, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Love this spot for a veteran Towson team.  They have 2 losses this season, both to top 60 teams on the road.  They lost @ St Mary’s by 7 and just lost @ South Carolina by 26 points as a 7 point dog so a very poor performance.  Now they get a chance to bounce back Saturday at home vs a James Madison team that is going through massive changes.  The Dukes lost their head coach Mark Byington to Vandy and they return only 11% of their minutes from last season.  New head coach Preston Spradlin is dealing with 7 new transfers in their top 8 players.  JMU is 2-1 on the season but in their only road game they lost by double digits at Norfolk State who ranks outside the top 200 per KenPom.  Towson has a huge edge in continuity which is extremely important early in the season as most teams are trying to mesh their new players (see James Madison).  The Tigers return 4 starters from last season and 82% of their minutes (3rd most in the country) are back from a team that was 20-14 last year.  Towson struggled shooting in their 2 losses but those were vs high level defensive teams both ranked in the top 75 in defensive efficiency so far this year and for the season last year.  Now they are in a comfortable spot at home facing a JMU defense that currently ranks 355th in eFG% defense vs Ohio & Norfolk State so we look for the Towson offense to look much better on Saturday.  The Dukes have relied heavily on the 3 point shot early in the year with 62 attempts in their 2 games vs Division 1 opponents.  Now they are on the road vs a Towson team that defended the arc very well last season and it allowing just 27% from deep this year vs St Mary’s and South Carolina.  Always more difficult so shoot well on the road in an unfamiliar arena and JMU should struggle.  We like Towson to play with a purpose after a loss earlier this week and they cover this short number at home where they’ve won 21 of their last 23 games.

#382 ASA TOP PLAY ON South Carolina -13 over Missouri, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET - South Carolina is playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now with 3 straight wins all by at least 21 points. Two weeks ago at home they rolled Texas A&M 44-20 putting up 530 yards on one of the better defenses in the country. Last week was a prime letdown spot for the Gamecocks traveling to Vandy off their big A&M win. SC dominated again 28-7 outgaining the Commodores by 175 yards. That’s a Vandy team that beat Bama, nearly beat Texas (lost by 3), and took this Missouri team to OT on the road before losing by 3. On top of that, South Carolina could easily have wins over LSU (lost by 3 on a late LSU TD) and Alabama (lost by 2 @ Bama but outgained the Tide). The only team that really outplayed the Gamecocks was Ole Miss who just beat Georgia by 18 points. Missouri is the opposite situation. They have a good record (7-2) but could easily have a few more losses. They’ve had a few things go their way beating Auburn late by 4, beating Vandy in OT, and beating a way down Oklahoma team last week on a fumble return TD with 30 seconds left in the game. Their offense has really struggled (97th in YPP) and will most likely be without starting QB Cook who has a bad ankle and a hand injury. Even if he plays he’s not at 100%. His back up Pyne is not good to say the least. Facing one of the best defensive teams in the nation will make it really tough on this already below average offense. SC’s defense has allowed less than 10 points in FIVE games already this season and we wouldn’t be surprised if they do the same to Mizzou here. Comparable opponents results aren’t even close. SC beat A&M by 24, Missouri lost to A&M by 31. SC beat Vandy by 21 on the road and Mizzou topped Vandy in OT by 3 at home. SC beat Oklahoma by 29 on the road and Missouri just beat OU by 7 at home on a fumble recovery as mentioned above. SC lost @ Bama by 2, Missouri last at Bama by 34. You get the point. This one should be an easy win at home for the Gamecocks.

#397 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +2.5 over Illinois, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - We think MSU is the better team despite records (Illinois is 6-3 & MSU is 4-5) so we’ll grab the points.  MSU has a better YPP margin (+0.1 to -0.1) and YPG margin (+22 to -10) despite playing the tougher schedule (12th SOS for MSU & 45th for Illinois).  Sparty is 4-5 on the season and they have plenty of motivation needing to win 2 of their last 3 games to be bowl eligible.  3 of their 5 losses have come vs OSU, Oregon, and Indiana who have a combined record of 28-1.  Both are coming off a bye week but we give MSU the advantage in that spot giving the coaching edge to the Spartans Jonathan Smith.  When Michigan State came off their first bye week back in early October, they rolled over a good Iowa team 32-20 and outgained them by almost 200 yards.  When Illinois came off their first bye week in early October, they needed OT at home to get by a terrible Purdue team.  The Illini have fallen off drastically since their 4-0 start going 2-3 their last 5 games and lucky to have those 2 wins to be honest.  They beat an average Michigan team at home but needed 3 Wolverine turnovers (0 for Illinois) to do so as they were outplayed in the stat sheet in that game.  They also nearly lost to Purdue, as we mentioned above, winning 50-49 in OT at HOME.  The Boilers actually ran 17 fewer offensive snaps in that game but outgained the Illini on a YPP basis.  That’s the same Purdue team that has already lost 6 games this season by 17 points or more.  We like the Spartans to win this one so we’ll take the points.

ASA top play on Washington Wizards +9.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - The Wizards are 2-8 SU this season and the two wins have come against this Hawks team back in October. Washington matches up well with the Hawks and can stay within this margin for the third time this season. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS at home this season as a favorite, 1-6 ATS overall with a negative point differential of minus -5.4ppg. We don’t think a team with these credentials should be laying nearly double-digits against anyone in the league. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league with the Hawks allowing 1.182-points per possession while the Wiz give up 1.197PPP. Washington should have success from beyond the arc with the 11th best 3PT% in the NBA going up against a Hawks defense that ranks 28th in 3PT% against. Atlanta is coming off a huge road win in Boston and could suffer a hangover effect here. Washington has lost four straight on this current road trip but three of those teams were better than Atlanta. We like the dog here and the points.

#858 ASA PLAY ON Furman -3.5 over Tulane, Friday at 7 PM ET - Head coach Bob Richey has built a very solid program at Furman in his 7 years at the helm. The Paladins have won at least 20 games in 5 of his 7 seasons and he’s never had a losing season. This year he has some continuity with 53% of his minutes returning and 4 of the 5 starters are returning players from last season. Furman is 3-0 on the season topping 2 teams ranked in the top 200 including a win @ Belmont one of the better mid major programs in the country. Tulane, on the other hand, hasn’t played a team ranked in the top 300 this season. They are 3-0 playing all home games topping Louisiana Christian, UL Monroe (ranked 328th) and Alcorn State (ranked 355th). This is a huge step up on competition for the Green Wave and on the road for the first time. On the other hand, Furman has already played and beaten 2 teams that are in the same range (power rating) as Tulane. The Green Wave only have 9% of their minutes back from last year and only 1 starter this year that played any type of role on last year’s team and he was a limited reserve in 2023. This is head coach Ron Hunter’s 6th year at Tulane and he has had only 1 winning season. Furman is a tough place to play as the Paladins have won 29 of their last 34 home games. Tulane has been a terrible road team with a 16-44 SU on the road since start of the 2019 season. This number is light in our opinion and we’ll take Furman to win and cover at home Friday night.

ASA play on Washington Commanders +4 at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Commanders here as they are coming off a loss, while the Eagles are coming off a big rivalry win in Dallas. Even though the Cowboys are down this season, that is still one of, if not the biggest game on Philly schedule. There is no shame in the Commanders loss to the red hot Steelers who have now won 4 straight games. Washington has the 6th best yards per play differential in the NFL at +0.5. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in YPPD at +0.9. Last year in the two meetings the Eagles won by 3 in OT and by 7-points in Washington. The combined Total Yards produced by the Eagles was 789 yards, the Commanders put up 837 yards. In terms of yards per play, the Eagles averaged 6.0YPP, the Commanders averaged 5.9YPP.  These two teams rate near even when it comes to overall DVOA statistics, so given the circumstances we will grab whatever points are available with the underdog. Washington is 5-1-2 ATS the last eight meetings with Philadelphia.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks will more than likely be short-handed again tonight with Damian Lillard in concussion protocol which opens the door for this fisty Pistons team. Milwaukee is 3-8 SU and actually looking up at the 5-7 Pistons in the Central Division standings and the reality is the Pistons have been the better team to this point. Detroit rates slightly low than the Bucks in Offensive Efficiency but rate ahead of them defensively. The Pistons overall Efficiency differential is -2.2 compared to the Bucks at -3.4. Detroit also has the better overall average point differential and holds a key advantage in this matchup with the 2nd best rebound rate (52.6%) going up against the Bucks 20th ranked rebound rate (49.3%). Going back to the start of last season the Bucks are 9-17 ATS against the Central Division with a negative points differential of minus -0.5ppg. Milwaukee hasn’t been great when playing without rest either at 7-9 ATS their last sixteen. Detroit is 7-1 ATS as a dog this season and undervalued by the Books. Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS as a chalk this season. We will grab the Dog and points in this one.

#697 ASA PLAY ON Wyoming +22.5 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Tech is 2-0 on the season playing 2 teams ranked outside the top 280 winning both games easily. In their most recent game they faced a Northwestern State team ranked outside the top 300 and won by “just” 21 points despite hitting over 51% of their shots and making 22 FT’s with their opponent making only 37% and just 13 FT’s. The Red Raiders largest lead in that game was 23 points and now they are laying that number (-22.5 to -23.5 range) vs a Wyoming team is far superior to Tech’s first 2 opponents. Tech has hit a ridiculous 63.3 eFG% in their first 2 games vs 2 poor defensive teams and that should change on Wednesday. Wyoming has been very good defensively in their first 2 games allowing an eFG% of just 39%. New Cowboy head coach Sundance Wicks was a UWGB last year and they were very good defensively ranking 111th in eFG% allowed along with ranking in the top 15 in 3 point FG% defense. Wicks is an outstanding coach as he took a Green Bay team that was 3-29 and led them to a winning record in his only season at the helm before coming back to lead his alma mater. He was named the Joe B. Hall National coach of the year for is efforts last season. Wyoming is a veteran team that starts 5 seniors and they have solid shooters on the outside (hitting 50% of their 3’s this year) and the size inside to hang around in this game. Too many points here and we’ll side with Wyoming.

#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio -10 over Eastern Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 have similar records (Ohio 6-3 & EMU 5-4) but the key stats aren’t even close. EMU is extremely fortunate to have a winning record right now. They could easily be sitting with 2 or 3 wins on the season rather than 5. The Eagles have a negative point differential in conference play and on the season this team has a YPP margin of -1.3, a YPR margin of -1.1, and a yards per pass attempt margin of -1.8. Those are the stats of a team that is well below .500. They’ve been fortunate in the turnover category ranking in the top 25 nationally in turnover margin. Ohio is 4-1 in MAC play with a point differential of +84 which is the best in conference play. They’ve allowed the least points in conference play (61) while scoring the 2nd most in MAC games (165). The Bobcats are 4-0 at home winning by an average of +18 PPG. When comparing the key stats we spoke about above for EMU, the Bobcats are +1.0 YPP, +1.8 YPR, and +0.4 yards per pass attempt. They are rolling right now as well, winning 4 of their last 5 game with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Miami OH who is playing as well as anyone in the MAC right now. 3 of Ohio’s 4 wins during that stretch have come by at least 20 points and their 1 close win they led CMU 24-0 in the 3rd quarter and took their foot off the gas and won 27-25. They learned from that mistake and have stayed aggressive with a lead winning their last 2 games by a combined score of 88-16. EMU has played only 2 road games in conference play this year vs Kent and Akron, the 2 worst teams in the MAC, who have a combined record of 2-16. They beat Kent, who is 0-9 on the season, but lost @ Akron. Now they face one of the top teams in the MAC and we expect Ohio to control this game from start to finish. Lay it.

#633 ASA PLAY ON Texas State +15.5 over TCU, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - TCU returns only 8% of their minutes from last season as they are adjusting to a completely new line up made up of mainly transfers. The Horned Frogs start 4 new transfers and their top 5 scorers after 2 games are all transfers. Their key newcomers have come from programs like UW Green Bay, Wyoming, Old Dominion, and UNC Wilmington so while all solid players, we’re not talking about high level additions from other Power 5 teams. The influx of new players can make it tough early in the season as they adjust to playing with different teammates, especially tough trying to cover big numbers. Both of TCU’s opponents have been ranked outside the top 220 and in their most recent game the struggled a bit with Florida Gulf Coast (ranked 222nd) in a game that was a one possession game midway through the 2nd half. The Frogs pulled away late and won by 17 which landed right on the number (-17). Now they face a Texas State team that is ranked nearly 100 spots higher than FGCU but the number is close to the same (-15.5). Texas State returns 60% of their minutes (4 of 5 starters played for this team last season) from a team that struggled early last year but played really well down the stretch winning 10 of their last 14 games almost topping James Madison (lost by 5) in the Sun Belt Championship game (JMU beat Wisconsin in the 1st round of the NCAA tourney). The Bobcats have carried that momentum into this season with 2 easy wins and this is a huge game for them vs an in-state big boy. We wouldn’t be surprised if TCU is peaking ahead to their huge game vs Michigan on Friday. Texas State keeps this fairly close. Take the points.

ASA play on Atlanta Hawks +15.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:10 PM ET - We successfully bet on the Celtics favored by 10-points in Atlanta a few weeks ago, a 123-93 Boston win. Today we flip and back the Hawks plus the points. Boston had an axe to grind in the first meeting as the Hawks won 2 games against them late last season. Now the C’s are coming off a big road win in Milwaukee, laying a huge number against a team that they recently beat by 30 points. Last season the four meetings between these two teams were all decided by 10-points or less with Atlanta winning two of them. The Hawks have been off since November 9th and should be fresh for tonight’s game. Despite a 4-7 SU record the Hawks have a -5.5-points per game differential and only two of their losses have come by more than this point spread. Boston had an average +/- at home last season of +14.4ppg, which has dipped to +8.8ppg this season. The Hawks had the worst spread record in the Division last season at 4-15 ATS BUT they had a positive point differential of +0.3ppg. The Celtics were 10-6-3 ATS in Division play with a positive differential of +11.3ppg. Boston has a below average FG% at 45% while the Hawks are slightly above average at 46.4%. We like Atlanta to hang within double-digits tonight.

#286 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams -2.5 over Miami Dolphins, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Rough spot for the Fins after nearly upsetting Buffalo on the road last week, they take to the air again in a cross country trip to LA. This is Miami’s 4th road game in their last 5 contests. They did get QB Tagovailoa back in the line up 2 games ago but they lost both of those contests and now might be without top WR Hill on Monday due to a wrist injury. Miami is just 2-6 with a -63 point differential which is the 6th worst in the NFL. And that’s despite playing the 24th most difficult strength of schedule to date. Defensively the Dolphins have solid overall numbers but they are trending down as of late allowing 58 points the last 2 weeks on 5.9 YPP in losses to Arizona & Buffalo. The Rams offense is back at full strength with WR’s Cupp and Nacua back in the line up together. With those 2 threats back on the field, LA has scored 56 points the last 2 weeks and veteran QB Stafford has thrown for almost 600 yards and 6 TD’s. The Rams sit at 4-4 and they’ve played the 3rd most difficult strength of schedule which is a big difference when comparing that to Miami. We’re getting a coaching edge here as well with McVay over McDaniel. The Rams are in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC while the Fins have pretty much played themselves out of it in the AFC. Miami has covered just once the last 8 times they’ve been tabbed an underdog and we think they add another ATS “L” to the ledger here. Lay the small number and take the Rams.

ASA play on Charlotte Hornets +5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - We are not sure the 76ers should be this big of a favorite against any team in the NBA right now. Philly is 1-7 SU on the season with a negative scoring differential of minus -8.8ppg. The Sixers rank 25th in Offensive Efficiency rating scoring just 1.092-points per possession. Defensively it’s worse as they allow 1.182PPP which ranks 26th. In comparison, the Hornets rank 18th in DEFF allowing 1.151PPP and 12th in OEFF at 1.120PPP. Charlotte has been very competitive this season with a negative point differential of minus -3.1ppg. The Hornets are coming off two straight home wins and should be much fresher than a Sixers team coming off a 3-game West coast road trip. The injury riddled 76ers have yet to win a home game so grab the points with Charlotte in what should be a competitive game down to the wire.

#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We’ll be the first to admit, we thought the change in Pittsburgh from QB Fields to Wilson was a mistake, but clearly not. The Steelers offense has put up 37 and 26 points with Wilson under center with 832 total yards at 6.6 Yards Per Play. It’s a small sample size, but those numbers would be the 2nd best in the league behind only Baltimore. The Steelers offense is averaging 138 rushing yards per game (8th) and should put up big numbers against a Commander's defense that ranks 29th in RYPG allowed at 143. With the running game established, Wilson and the Steelers passing attack can exploit a Washington D that allows the 24th highest completion percentage in the NFL and gives up 6.8 yards per attempt. The Commanders QB Daniels is special, and this offense has excelled this season, but the Steelers/Tomlin defense will be up for the task. Pittsburgh clearly has a scheme in place to slow Daniels as they have to play Lamar Jackson and the Ravens twice a year. Last season the Steelers D held the Ravens to 10 points twice. This will easily be the best defense the Commanders have faced this season with every opponent ranking lower than the Steelers in Yards Per Play and Total Defense. In the last 10 years the Steelers are one of the best in the NFL as an underdog with a 43-24-1 ATS record. They are also 8-4 ATS since 2020 when playing with a rest advantage. We like the Steelers to win this game outright.

#273 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -6.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The 49ers are a disappointing 4-4 SU on the season but have dealt with numerous injuries to key personnel. They are coming off a bye-week and are getting healthy for the final stretch of the regular season. There are even rumors RB McCaffrey may return for this game. Either way, we like the Niners to roll here. Despite a .500 record the 49ers are 5th in the current DVOA rankings, 7th in offense and 5th in defense. San Francisco averages 6.5 Yards Per Play (2nd) and gives up just 5.3YPP (12th). SF is a modest 15-13 ATS as a road chalk since 2020 but they’ve won those games by an average of +7.7ppg. On that note, the Bucs are 3-6 ATS their last nine as a home dog with a negative differential of minus -1.4ppg. As for Tampa Bay, they are in a horrible scheduling situation having just played in Kansas City in a big game on Monday Night Football. TB has not had a bye this season and are dealing with a depleted roster with their two best WR’s on the sideline. Tampa Bay is 30th in the NFL in Yards Per Game allowed and 26th in YPP given up at 6.0. They give up the 19th most rushing YPG and 30th most passing YPG. Offensively the Bucs will want to run the football, but the 49ers allow 105 rushing yards per game (6th) and just 4.3 yards per attempt (9th). Tampa Bay has already been beaten 3 times on this field this season and we expect the Niners to hand them #4.

#170 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +3 over Army, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Army is 8-0 on the season but they’ve played the 132nd strength of schedule out of 134 teams. The teams they’ve faced this season have a combined record of 10-35 SU vs FBS opponents and none of those teams currently have a .500 or better record. Last week Army struggled with an Air Force team that is 0-7 this year vs FBS opponents and the Cadets had just 250 total yards on 5.0 YPP. That was vs an AF defense that was giving up 410 YPG on 6.5 YPP entering that contest. Army played without their starting QB Daily in that game and there is an obvious huge drop off if he doesn’t play. He was seen in a walking boot this week and hasn’t practiced although head coach Jeff Monken said he is questionable. Even if he does get the nod, he won’t be 100% with a bad foot and that’s not ideal for a running QB. On defense, Army is facing a UNT attack that is averaging 41 PPG (6th in the nation) and ranks 3rd in the country in total offense (528 YPG). The Cadets haven’t seen an offense anywhere near this level as all 8 teams they’ve faced rank 65th or lower in total offense. UNT has played the much tougher schedule and they sit at 5-3 on the season. The Mean Green have lost 2 straight games and are coming off a bye in a must win spot. The extra week is perfect timing preparing for a unique Army offense. In those back to back losses, North Texas faced 2 of the top teams in the AAC (Tulane & Memphis) and lost 1 game in each but outgained both of those really solid opponents. As we mentioned Army is in a letdown spot off rival Air Force and the Cadets next game is vs Notre Dame. We like North Texas to win this game outright on Saturday at home giving Army their first loss of the season.

#140 ASA PLAY ON James Madison -14.5 over Georgia State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is simply one of the best situational spots of the season. JMU is at home off a bye week and they are facing a Georgia State team that is playing their 4th straight road game in 4 weeks. On top of that, they have to be demoralized losing 5 straight games and now most likely out of gas for this game. Speaking of the situation, since 2019 there have been 7 instances of a team playing their 4th straight road game vs a team coming off a bye and the rested team is a perfect 7-0 ATS. Georgia State’s offense will struggle here vs a James Madison defense that ranks in the top 15 nationally in YPP allowed (4.7) and points allowed (17 PPG). The Dukes defense has held half of their opponents (4) to less than 10 points. Offensively, JMU averages over 400 YPG and they’ve scored at least 30 points in 5 of their 8 games this year. They are capable of putting up huge numbers on offense as they have already this season scoring 70 points @ North Carolina and 63 points at home vs Ball State. They are facing a Georgia State defense that has to be tired and is allowing 31 PPG on the season. The Panther defense has allowed more than 30 points in 5 of their last 6 games and now facing a rested and prepared James Madison offense. GSU’s average margin of their 6 losses this year is 12.5 points and now with the terrible situation factored in. All of JMU’s wins (vs FBS) have come by at least 17 points. This smells like a potential blowout.

#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas +2.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Great situational spot for KU here. The Jayhawks are playing their best FB of the season and coming off a bye. Meanwhile they catch ISU off their first loss of the season and to be perfectly honest, the Cyclones haven’t played well over the last few weeks. They’ve been playing with fire and it caught up to them last week in a home loss vs a pretty average Texas Tech team. ISU’s offense was only able to generate 22 points (they lost 23-22) vs a Tech defense that had allowed the most points in the Big 12 entering last week. The previous Saturday, Iowa State needed a late surge at home to beat another pretty average team, UCF. The Cyclones scored a TD with 30 seconds remaining in that one to pick up the 38-35 wins. UCF ran for over 350 yards in that game and that is a big concern here as well. KU is a very good running team, with a mobile QB (17th nationally in rushing) and Iowa State’s defense simply hasn’t been good containing the run this year ranking 93rd in rush defense and 110th in YPC allowed. Kansas is playing really well right now and they very well coached with 2 full weeks to get ready for this game. KU nearly upset a very good KSU team on the road in their most recent game. The Jayhawks ran for 5.6 YPC in that 29-27 loss vs a very good Wildcat rush defense. The Cats scored a TD with less than 2:00 minutes remaining int the game to get that home win. All of KSU’s other home wins have been blowouts. A week prior to that tight loss, KU rolled a Houston team that is playing very well right now. They beat the Cougars 42-14 which is Houston’s only loss since late September. Houston’s wins as of late include Kansas State, Utah, and TCU. We like the value here as KU was +2.5 @ Iowa State last year and now getting the same number at home (game will be played @ Arrowhead Stadium in KC). ISU gets knocked off for the 2nd straight week. Take Kansas.

#120 ASA PLAY ON UCLA +6.5 over Iowa, Friday at 9 PM ET - This is a letdown spot for the Hawkeyes traveling to the west coast for the first time this season after rolling up a big win over archrival Wisconsin.  The Hawkeyes have been great at home but on the road they are just 1-2 in Big 10 play.  They are traveling on a short week to face a UCLA team that is trending upward right now.  The Bruins are off back to back wins, both on the road, beating Rutgers and Nebraska.  Last week’s 27-20 win over the Huskers was actually closer than it should have been.  UCLA outgained Nebraska by 2.0 YPP and had more overall yardage despite running 17 fewer offensive snaps.  Even prior to those back to back wins, this team was playing well losing a tight game vs Minnesota 21-17, a game UCLA led pretty much throughout and they played Penn State tough on the road before that losing 27-11.  They’ve outgained each of their last 3 opponents and the Bruins simply to be undervalued with a 5-0-1 ATS record their last 6 games and now getting nearly a full TD at home in this one.  Iowa switched QB’s last week going with back up Sullivan and he will get another start here.  He didn’t have to do much attempting only 10 passes the entire game as Iowa was able to get whatever they wanted on the ground vs the Badgers.  Now they are facing a UCLA defense that is very good vs the run ranking 12th nationally allowing 100 YPG rushing on just 3.3 YPC.  Iowa will have to have some success through the air here and we’re not sure they can get it done in that regard (they rank dead last in Big 10 play averaging only 112 YPG through the air).  Iowa’s offensive numbers drop off drastically on the road where they average just 19 PPG (35 PPG at home) and only 281 YPG (374 YPG at home).  Upset alert here as UCLA will give the Hawkeyes all they can handle on Friday Night.

ASA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors – 7:40 PM ET - We just played -6-points with the Celtics at home over the Warriors and lost but will come right back here with a play against them in Cleveland. It’s too early to say, but this Cavs unit might be the best team Cleveland has ever put on the court. Cleveland has the 2nd highest scoring differential in the NBA at +12.7PPG and are winning at home by +12.3PPG. Golden State has an average +/- of +15.9PPG overall for the season. The Warriors though have played a very soft schedule and only two of their wins have come against a team with a above .500 record, the Rockets at 4-3 and most recently the Celtics. Golden State’s other 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 15-29 SU record. Cleveland has faced a very tough schedule to date with wins over the Knicks, Lakers, Magic and Bucks twice. The line value is obvious here and the bet is Cleveland minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -7 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Houston, we have a problem! The Bucks look and play like a team in complete disarray. There is a power struggle going on in Milwaukee with Doc Rivers and the front office as he wants full control, and they aren’t going to let that happen. In the 2022-23 season the Bucks were 4th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.119-points per possession. Last season they slipped to 19th in DEFF allowing 1.184PPP. This season they rank 21st allowing 1.173PPP. At least they have their offensive to rely on. Not really, the Bucks are 22nd in OEFF at 1.009-points per possession. The Knicks are adjusting to a major roster shift with the addition of Karl Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges and have underachieved with a 3-4 start. NY ranks 4th in OEFF and 20th in DEFF but you know this defense will improve under coach Thibodeau. The Bucks are coming off a game on Thursday against Utah and the Knicks are rested. New York has only played two home games this season so you can bet the home crowd will be extra energized. The Knicks were 33-17 SU at home last season with an average +/- of +5.8PPG. The Bucks were 19-29 SU on the road last season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG.

#110 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -5.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bengals have a losing record currently at 4-5 despite playing the 2nd easiest strength of schedule in the NFL.  They haven’t beaten a team that is currently above .500 and their 4 wins have come vs teams that have a combined 8 wins (Carolina, NYG, Las Vegas, and Cleveland).  Cincy played a little better offensively last week putting up 41 points on a bad Raiders team, but only averaged 5.3 YPP so that was a bit misleading.  In their 3 games prior to that this offense wasn’t playing great to say the least.  In that 3 game stretch prior to LV (vs Eagles, Browns, and Giants), the Bengals averaged just 18 PPG on 269 YPG.  Now they have some key injuries on that side of the ball with WR Higgins still doubtful, RB Moss out, and TE All now out for the season.  We’re not sure they can keep up with this Ravens offense that has scored at least 40 points in 3 of their last 5 games.  Last week they hosted a Denver defense that led the NFL allowing just 4.4 YPP and Baltimore put up 7.3 YPP vs that stop unit and 41 points.  Baltimore also added WR Diontae Johnson to their arsenal this week in a trade with the Panthers.  The Birds are the only team in the NFL averaging over 7.0 YPP on the season and in their first meeting with Cincinnati on the road, they put up 41 points on 6.8 YPP.  The Bengals were playing at the top of their game offensively at that point of the season and still lost 41-38 at home.  Over their last 15 home wins, since 2022, the Ravens have won those games by an average of +16 PPG.  Cincy simply isn’t playing at that level on offense right now and on the road, short week, we just don’t see them staying within a TD here.  Lay it. 

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4 at San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Blazers will be one of the bottom teams in the NBA again this season but today they are in a great spot to get a ‘W’ over the Spurs. San Antonio is coming off a game last night in Houston and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. It’s also their 4th game in six days so fatigue becomes a factor. Portland meanwhile is rested having last played on November 4th in New Orleans. The Blazers won that game 118-100, shooting 55% overall and finishing the game with +8 rebounds. Portland looked good in the game before that, in a 6-point loss in Phoenix. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in EFG% with the Spurs ranking 22nd, the Blazers are 29th. These teams are near identical in Defensive Efficiency on the season but in their last 3 games the Blazers have been significantly better. San Antonio is 3-11 SU their last fourteen games when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of minus -11.4PPG. Portland has the best cover rate in the NBA since the start of last season at 71.4% when playing with 2-3 days rest. Easy call here to grab the points with the Blazers.

ASA top play on Phoenix Suns -5 vs. Miami Heat – 9 PM ET - We love the spot for the Suns at home against a Heat team who continues to underachieve. Miami is 3-3 SU this season, but their wins have come against the Wizards, Pistons and Hornets. They have lost to the three quality teams they’ve faced, the Kings, Knicks and Magic…all at home. Now they go on the road to face a Suns team that is a legitimate contender in the Western Conference. The Suns have faced a tough schedule to start the season and currently sit 6-1 SU. Despite facing good competition, the Suns have an average +/- of +3.7PPG overall and are +6PPG at home. Phoenix is 9th in Offensive Efficiency, 10th in Defensive Efficiency. In comparison, the Heat rank 14th in DEFF and 22nd in OEFF, again against a weak schedule. Miami is shooting just 43.3% on the season (25th) and will have a tough time making shots against this Suns team that is 4th in the league in FG% defense. Phoenix will also have an advantage offensively with the 5th best 3PT% going against the Heat’s 11th ranked 3PT% defense. Phoenix won both meetings a year ago and have gotten better this season while the Heat have gotten worse. Lay it with the Suns.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -7 vs. Golden State Warriors – 7:30 PM ET - We are curious to see if Jayson Tatum has anything special planned for the Warriors and head coach Steve Kerr. There is some mystery surrounding Tatum’s lack of playing time in the Olympics and he could take it out on Kerr tonight. Boston had the 3rd highest scoring differential in the NBA at +14PPG and are winning at home by +17PPG. Golden State has an average +/- of +17.3PPG overall for the season. The Warriors though have played a very soft schedule and only one of their wins has come against a team with an above .500 record, the Rockets at 4-3. Golden State’s other 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 15-29 SU record. Boston has at least two quality wins on their resume, and both were by double-digits at home over the Bucks and Knicks. Last season when the Celtics hosted the Warriors, they blew them out of the building with a 140-88 win.

ASA play on LA Clippers -3.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 10:30 PM ET - This is a "get right" spot for the Clippers who come into this game off 3 straight losses. The Clippers currently rank 9th in Defensive Efficiency and 21st in Offensive Efficiency. The Spurs rank 29th in OEFF and 4th in DEFF. The Clippers though have faced the tougher schedule of the two teams but have comparable statistics. With these two teams relatively close defensively, we like the Clippers offense to outscore the Spurs offense. The Clippers EFG% is 16th in the NBA at 53.1%. The Spurs EFG% is 25th worst in the league at 50.1%. Los Angeles has won 8 of the last 10 meetings and 7 straight. Last year the Clippers won all three meetings by 7, 25 and 40-points. More money and tickets have come in on the Spurs, yet the line has moved in the opposite direction which tells us the Clippers are the play.

ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Bucs +9.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - KC has won 13 straight games dating back to last season but only 3 of those have come by more than 8 points and their average YPG margin during that stretch is just +45. They are the king of winning close games and with this line sitting near double digits, we are on Tampa. The Bucs are 4-4 on the season yet they have a point differential of +22 and a YPP differential of +0.1. KC is undefeated yet their point differential is just +50 and their YPP differential is pretty comparable to TB at +0.3. KC’s offense has been pretty average this season (17th in YPP) which is why they haven’t been pulling away from teams. Mahomes ranks just 24th in QBR and he doesn’t have many high level weapons at his disposal this year. They are already missing RB Pacheco and WR’s Rice, Brown, Moore and now Shuster is most likely out for this game. Tampa has their offensive injury problems as well but they still put up 26 points on 432 yards last week vs Atlanta with their key WR’s out. The Bucs can score (4th in the NFL at 29.4 PPG) and they know how to keep drives alive with a 52.5% third down conversion rate (1st in the NFL). KC’s offense hasn’t topped 28 points the entire season and facing a team that can score will make it tough for them to win this one by double digits. Windy conditions are expected in KC Monday night which may favor the better running team. TB averages 5.1 YPC this season (6th) while KC is averaging only 3.9 YPC (29th). We’ll call for the Bucs to keep this one close. Take the points.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -9.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:45 PM ET - The Hawks aren’t in a good scheduling situation here having played last night in New Orleans. The Hawks won that game 126-111 after shooting 58%, well above expectations. Atlanta lacks depth and only 8 players saw time last night. Boston is coming off a pair of double-digit wins in Charlotte and currently own an average +/- of plus 11.7PPG. Last season this Celtics team had a plus/minus of +10.7PPG for the season. The Celtics have not forgotten two late season losses to this Hawks team by 2-points in regulation and by 1-point in OT and will be focused tonight. Last season when the Celtics had a rest advantage over their opponent, they were 17-13-1 ATS and won those games by an average of +14.5PPG. Atlanta was 5-10 ATS last season when playing without rest. Atlanta’s lack of depth right now and having to play their 3rd game in four nights is a bad recipe for success against a motivated Boston team. Lay it.

#476 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -7 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Eagles are rolling on both sides of the ball right now winning 4 of their last 5 games.  They’ve outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents by YPP margins of +3.0, +2.9, +1.9, and +1.4.  That’s impressive.  Last week they dominated a solid Cincinnati team on the road 37-17 outgaining them 397 to 280.  Over the last 2 weeks, the Eagles have outscored their opponents 63-20.  Not only is their offense trending up, the Philly defense has played lights out over the last month or so.  They have not allowed more than 17 points since September and over their last 3 games the Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 3.9 YPP.  They’ve done this while mainly playing on the road.  4 of their last 5 games have come away from home and they’ve played only 1 home game since mid September.  The Jags are in a really rough spot here.  This will be their 9th straight game with no bye, they were in London for 2 weeks, came home and lost to GB on a last second FG, and now off to Philadelphia.  On top of that, Jacksonville is really banged up right now especially on offense.  Their top 3 WR’s may miss this one (Thomas, Kirk, and Davis) and there is a good chance that 2 of their starting Oline will be out as well.  On top of that, they just traded their best offensive lineman, LT Robinson, to the Vikings this week.  Has this team waved the white flag?  We think they will struggle offensively vs this surging Eagle defense.  On the other side of the ball, Philly is averaging over 6.0 YPP their last 3 games and facing a Jags defense that ranks in the bottom 5 in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring defense with Jacksonville allowing a TD 30.6% of opponent possessions, 31st in the league.  This smells like a potential blowout for the Eagles.  Lay it.

ASA play on Washington Wizards +9.5 vs Miami Heat, 9:40 PM ET - The Wizards have gotten off to a 2-2 start with the two losses coming against the Celtics and Cavaliers who are currently the two best teams in the East. Washington’s two wins have come against the Atlanta Hawks who we grade slightly lower than this Heat team. Miami is also 2-2 SU with wins against the Pistons and Hornets, losses to the Knicks and Magic. The Wiz rate slightly lower than the Heat in Net Rating at -4.6 compared to -3.1. Miami was 8-6-2 ATS as a road chalk last season but their average +/- in those games was just +4.3PPG which clearly isn’t enough to cover this spread. Washington is going to push the tempo in this game and Miami is not shooting it well with an EFG% of 52.1% which is 21st in the NBA. We are not sold Miami is invested yet in this season. Take the Dog here.

#366 ASA TOP PLAY ON SMU -7 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Fishy line here with SMU favored by a full TD over an undefeated Pitt team. The Panthers, despite being undefeated, are trending down in our opinion. Their offense simply hasn’t played well for the last 6 straight quarters. A few weeks ago they faced Cal in a perfect spot for Pitt at home and struggled to win that game 17-15 (we were on Pitt in that game). They didn’t score a single point in the 2nd half of that game and were held to less than 100 yards after halftime. Last week, coming off a bye, if you simply looked at the final score you would think Pitt was back in stride offensively scoring 41 points vs Syracuse. Not so fast. 21 of their 41 points came on 3 interception returns for TD’s by the Panthers. The fact is, they had only 217 total yards and were held to less than 5.0 YPP in that win. Now they go on the road for just the 2nd time since September 7th to face the best team they’ve seen this season. SMU is 7-1 on the year and playing really well right now. Their only loss was by 3 points vs BYU who stands at 8-0. Last week it looks like they squeaked by @ Duke winning 28-27 but the Mustangs dominated the stats (+1.2 YPP margin). SMU had a horrible -6 turnover margin in last week’s game @ Duke and still won on the road which is extremely impressive. The Stangs are coming off a 3-0, 3 game road trip and are back at home for the first time since September. They have scored an average of 50 PPG over their last 10 home games which dates back to the start of last season. SMU starting QB Jennings was a question mark early in the week but it looks like he’ll be a full go on Saturday. We like SMU by more than a TD in this one.

#390 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +3.5 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Perfect situational spot for a very good South Carolina team. The Gamecocks are off a bye and catching A&M the week after a huge home win over LSU. The Aggies have been getting very comfortable at home having played only 1 road game since mid September. That road game was vs Mississippi State, the worst team in the SEC, and even though the Aggies won by 10, they were outgained by the Bulldogs in that game. In fact, despite their perfect 5-0 SEC record, A&M has been outgained in 3 of their last 4 games. The Gamecocks are 4-3 on the season but could easily be 7-1. They had two tight, down to the wire losses vs high level opponents, Alabama & LSU, losing those games by a combined 5 points. SC outgained Alabama on the road but missed a 2 point conversion with under a minute to go which would have tied the game. They led LSU with just over a minute to go before the Tigers scored the game winning TD. Just a few plays go different in those games and South Carolina is sitting at 7-1. What’s the line here if that’s the case? SC favored for sure. Carolina has played the 3rd toughest schedule in the nation yet their YPP & YPG differential is very similar to A&M’s who’s played an easier slate. We have this game power rated at right around a pick-em so we’ll grab the value with South Carolina +3.5

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -4 vs Denver Nuggets, 9:40 PM ET - We won’t buy into the revenge angle for the Nuggets here who the Wolves eliminated from the playoffs last season. Minnesota is in a favorable scheduling situation here, coming off a home loss to the Mavs and having been at home since October 25th. Minnesota was 33-16 SU at home last season with an average plus/minus of +7.3PPG. Denver is playing their 3rd straight road game and have struggled in their first two at Toronto and Brooklyn who are lower tiered teams in the NBA. The Nuggets are currently 21st in defensive net rating and 17th in ONR. Those are extremely low considering their strength of schedule. Minnesota is 13th in ONR, 11th in DNR and have faced a much better schedule which included the Mavs, Kings and Lakers. Denver is not shooting it well with an EFG% of 49.4% which ranks 26th in the NBA. The Wolves are 6th in EFG% at 56.5%. This is a good spot to back the Wolves coming off a home loss. Minnesota was 24-8 SU off a loss last year and won those games by an average of +9.8PPG.

#312 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets -2 over Houston Texans, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Jets have lost 5 straight both SU and ATS but this team is much better than their 2-6 record. We’re getting some value because of that. The Jets were just favored by 7 @ New England and Houston played @ New England a few weeks ago and was laying 6.5. That tells us the Jets should be favored by a FG here. 4 of NY’s 5 losses have come by 6 points or less and they were ahead or tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of those games. NY has a positive YPG and YPP differential and their defense ranks 4th in the NFL (total defense) and 2nd in YPP allowed. This team is just happy to be back at home as they’ve been on the road for 3 of their last 4 games. Their most recent home game was a 23-20 loss vs a very good Buffalo team and the Jets outgained the Bills in that game both overall yardage and YPP. They are off an embarrassing loss @ New England last week that should give them some extra motivation coming into this game. That was a flukey win for the Pats as the Jets dominated outgaining New England by 2.0 YPP. In that game the Jets became the first team in NFL history to lose a game despite scoring 20+ points, holding their opponent to 250 or fewer yards, and not turning the ball over. Houston is coming off a big 3 point division win over the Colts and this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. The Texans are 6-2 on the season but they’ve been far from dominant with a point differential of just +9 on the season and both of their losses have come on the road. The Houston offense is averaging just 319 YPG on the road on 4.9 YPP which is the 10th worst mark on the road in the NFL. QB CJ Stroud QB rating, completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, etc… road splits are all much lower than his home splits. Now on a short week vs a very good defense, we think this one sets up very nicely for the Jets to pick up a home win.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:10 PM ET - Don’t get sucked into betting the playoff revenge angle here with the Pacers who the Celtics eliminated last year in the conference finals. Boston looks better than ever and get key contributor Sam Hauser back in the lineup tonight which provides more space with another perimeter shooter for the Celtics. Boston has already beaten two Eastern Conference contenders, the Bucks and Knicks, both by double-digits. Indiana struggled to beat the Pistons, then lost three straight to teams that rate below Boston. Boston was 53-13 SU against the East last season with an average +/- of +9.9PPG. They also won their road games by an average of +6.8PPG. Boston was one of the best defensive efficiency teams in the NBA last year, Indiana was one of the worst. The Celtics were one of the best offensive efficiency teams in the league last year as were the Pacers. This season the C’s are still the best OEFF team and one of the best DEFF. The Pacers are again bad defensively and their OEFF numbers have dropped to 23rd in the league. We will lay it here with Boston.

#307 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State +2.5 over Liberty, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’ve been waiting for this spot for a few weeks now looking forward to jumping on Jacksonville State as a dog. Liberty has been playing with fire all season long winning a number of close games vs poor opponents and it came back to bite them in their most recent game. That was a loss @ Kennesaw State who many, including us, had power rated as the worst team in FBS. That loss pushed this number down lower than it would have been but we still like JSU getting points here. In their loss vs Kennesaw, a team that JSU beat 63-24, Liberty allowed the Owls to score 27 points on 5.2 YPP. That may not seem like a big deal but KSU was averaging just 3.7 YPP entering the game (last in the nation) and they were averaging just 13 PPG. The Flames were undefeated entering that game but had really struggled to beat teams they should handle easily including NM State and FIU, among others. They continue to be priced according to their success last season but they simply aren’t anywhere near that caliber this year. The Flames are 1-5 ATS failing to cover the spread by a combined 80 points (almost 2 TD’s per game). Both teams have played an easy schedule to date but while Liberty is struggling to win by margin along with losing to what might be the worst team in the country, JSU has won and covered their last 4 games by margins of 37, 39, 41, and 22 points. The 2 common opponents this year are Kennesaw (JSU won by 39 / Liberty lost by 3) and NM State (JSU won by 41 / Liberty won by 6). Jacksonville St QB Huff is a little banged up but we’re hearing he’ll be OK for this one. His back up Smothers was originally at Nebraska and has solid experience if needed. This game would have set up perfectly for us if Liberty wouldn’t have lost to Kennesaw, however we still think the better team is getting points so we’ll stick with it.

#306 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -4 over UL Lafayette, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - Texas State is coming off an embarrassing effort @ ODU on October 19th losing 24-14 as a 10 points road chalk. They came into the game averaging 39 PPG (15th in the country) and they had scored at least 28 points in every game leading up to ODU. Just a terrible performance from a high level offense that may have been peaking ahead to this huge home match up vs ULL. That loss dropped the Bobcats to 4-3 on the season and this is a due or die game facing a Louisiana team that sits 1 game ahead of them in the Sun Belt West. Louisiana is 6-1 overall and 3-0 in Sun Belt play but Texas State has a better overall and conference point differential despite having 1 loss in league play and 3 losses overall. If we subtract their games vs FCS opponents (they’ve each played one) 4 of ULL’s 5 wins have come by 10 points or less while Texas State’s 3 wins vs FBS opponents have come by 39, 32 and 21 points. The Bobcats have played the slightly more difficult schedule yet have the better YPP differential and their defense ranks in the top 20 nationally allowing only 4.9 YPP. This is a game that Texas State already had tabbed as their most important game of the season months ago. Last year they lost @ Louisiana 34-30 but led by 9 points with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game and blew it. They lost on the road in that one despite outgaining ULL by over 100 yards and only punted once in the game. We like Texas State to bounce back from last week’s disaster game and win this one by more than 4 points.

#291 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +6 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re catching the NYG at the bottom of the market right now after getting rolled in their last 2 games by combined score of 45-10 vs Bengals & Eagles which has led to some line value here. Prior to that the Giants had won 2 of their previous 3 games topping Seattle and Cleveland, both as underdogs. New York has been better on the road this season with both of their wins coming away from home. Their only other road game was a tight 21-18 loss vs a solid Washington team. After their most embarrassing performance of the season, a 28-3 loss vs Philly, we expect NY to bounce back and play well this week. Pittsburgh is overvalued right now coming off 2 easy wins over Las Vegas and NYJ. However, those scores were very misleading. The YPP stats in those 2 wins were both close to even but Pittsburgh benefited from a +5 turnover margin in those 2 games combined. Despite their 5-2 record, the Steelers have a negative YPP differential on the season. The Steelers under Tomlin have been great as an underdog but not so much as a favorite. Especially at home where they are 18-25 ATS their last 43 as home favorites and 3-10 their last 13 as a home chalk of 6 or more points. Too many points and we’ll call for a tight game.

ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +9 at Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are expected to be much improved this season with some added veteran help in Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr and Malik Beasley to pair with a solid young rotation. Unfortunately for the Pistons they started the season with games against the Celtics, Cavs and Pacers to go 0-3. Detroit was very competitive in all three games though, losing by 6 to the Celts, 12 to the Cavs and 6 to Indiana. Miami was blown out in their home opener by the Magic, then won in Charlotte most recently by 8-points. The Heat can’t be trusted as a big home favorite with a 30-43-2 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2022 season. Last year the Heat won at home by just 1.5PPG, the 19th lowest number in the NBA. Detroit has a winning overall ATS record as a road dog the past two seasons at 22-20 versus the number. Detroit is better than their 0-3 SU record and have value at this number.

ASA play on NY Knicks -2.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:30 PM ET - The Cavs are 3-0 SU but have faced Washington, Detroit and Toronto who had a combined 54-192 record a year ago. The Knicks have faced the Celtics and Pacers and are 1-1 SU. New York is 21-17 ATS as a home favorite dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of plus 9.0ppg. Surprisingly, the Cavs haven’t been a great road underdog in that same time span with a 12-15 ATS record and a negative differential of minus -7.2ppg. The Knicks had the #1 rebound rate a year ago and should dominate the glass against this Cavaliers team that ranked 19th. These two teams were very similar defensively a year ago in efficiency ratings but the Knicks held a decisive advantage offensively with the 7th best OEFF compared to the Cavs who rated 16th. New York won 2 of 3 meetings a year ago and 8 of the last ten. Lay the short number with New York.

#276 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +3 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This line was set at -2.5 to -3 in favor of Washington last week and has moved a full 6 points due to Commander QB Daniels most likely out. That’s too much in our opinion. Washington has one of the top back ups in the league in veteran Marcus Mariota (16,000 career passing yards & 95 TDs) who entered in relief last week and threw for over 200 yards and 2 TD’s. Washington OC Kingsbury has proven to be on the of the best in the NFL and will have a solid gameplan set for Mariota and company in this game. The Bears are on a nice little 3 game run, however their opponents during that stretch were LA Rams (when half their offense was out due to injuries), Carolina, and Jacksonville. They haven’t played a true road game in over a month and the Bears are 0-2 SU in their 2 road games @ Indy and @ Houston. Despite their 4-2 record, Chicago has been outgained this season by -0.3 YPP which is 12th worst in the NFL. Their offense ranks 28th in YPP and Washington’s defense seems to be getting more comfortable holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to less than 300 yards. The only team that topped 300 yards during that stretch was Baltimore who has the best offense in the NFL. We look for Washington to rally around the Daniels injury and raise their game for this one as many teams do in this situation. They are 3-0 SU & ATS at home this season and Chicago is in unfamiliar territory laying points on the road for just the 3rd time since the start of the 2020 season. Take Washington.

#280 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks +3.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 4 PM ET - This is a much bigger game for Seattle as everyone in the NFC West is bunched together within 1 game of each other. Buffalo, on the other hand, has a huge lead in the AFC East with a 5-2 record well ahead of all other teams in the division who are 2-4 or worse. The Bills are overvalued in our opinion. Despite their record, they are getting outgained by 20+ YPG on the season. Their easy wins have come vs Jacksonville, Tennessee (with back up QB) and Miami (Tua injured early in that win) who have a combined 5-14 record on the season. They’ve only faced 2 teams this season that currently have a winning record and lost both games vs Baltimore & Houston. The Seahawks got back on track last week after a 3 game losing streak (2 of those losses were vs Detroit and San Francisco) by beating a very solid Atlanta team on the road 34-14. The Seattle defense, which is slowly getting back to healthy, looked very good holding a red hot Falcons offense (who scored 72 points the previous 2 weeks) to just 14 points. The Seahawks might be down WR Metcalf but there is an outside chance he plays and they are getting 2 key DB’s back this week to help the defense. Situational edge to Seattle as well as they had 10 days off prior to facing Atlanta while Buffalo is playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Seattle has one of the top home field advantages in the NFL and as a dog at home they’ve covered 19 of their last 26 games (73%). Take the points.

#267 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers -3.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This might be a square bet, but they win too, and the Packers are clearly the superior team in this match up. Something that’s been overlooked this season for Green Bay is their defense and how well they’ve played on that side of the football. With a new system and D-coordinator in place it has taken time for this unit to figure things out. For the season the Packers are allowing 5.1 yards per play which ranks 8th best in the league. In their last three games that number has dipped to 4.6YPP and last week they allowed just 3.4YPP to a Houston offense that is averaging 5.4YPP on the season. The Packers offense ranks 6th in yards per play offensively, 6th in total yards per game at 383, 5th in rushing and 9th in passing YPG. Green Bay is 8th in scoring margin at +6.1PPG and already has road wins against the Rams by 5 and at Tennessee by 16. The Jags just spent two weeks in Europe and will be happy to be home. Maybe even a little distracted. Jacksonville is middle of the pack in most offensive categories ranking 13th in YPP, 16th in total YPG and 21st in scoring at 20.7PPG. Defensively it’s not a good situation for the Jags and their fans. The Jaguars are 27th in yards allowed, 31st in yards per play allowed and opposing QB’s have had their way with this defense passing for 273YPG. The Jags have two wins to their credit, but they’ve come against the Colts and Patriots who rank near the bottom in the NFL. Green Bay is a top 7 team in our ratings. Jacksonville has an average loss margin of -7.0PPG.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +1.5 at L.A. Lakers – 10:40 PM ET - The Lakers have a pair of huge wins to start the season over the Timberwolves and Suns but are in a tough spot here. Los Angeles is playing the second night of a back-to-back and catch a Kings team coming off a home loss a few nights back. Sacramento played well in their opener and lost by 2-points to the Timberwolves. Sacramento has a new addition to their roster in DeMar DeRozen who scored 26-points and grabbed 8 rebounds in his Kings debut. This game means more to the Kings who are often looked at as the other California team behind the Lakers and Clippers. Sacramento has won 8 of the last 10 meetings and 5 straight, 3 in a row on this court. These two teams were nearly identical last season in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating, but we are expecting the Kings to be better this season with the addition of DeRozan. This line opened with the Lakers as a -3.5-point favorite and was quickly bet down to the current number. That would suggest that either LeBron or AD could be sitting for this game after playing last night. We like Sacramento here.

#155 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +4 over Michigan, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Huge coaching advantage here in our opinion with MSU’s Jonathan Smith (formerly at Oregon State) vs Michigan’s Sherrone Moore. Smith showed his coaching prowess last week coming out of a bye and roasting a good Iowa team 32-20 as a home underdog. To be honest, the score probably shouldn’t have even been that close as Sparty dominated 27 first downs to 12 and 468 total yards to 283 for the Hawkeyes. Meanwhile, a poorly coached Michigan team also came off a bye and lost 21-7 at Illinois as a 3 point favorite. Michigan State is now 4-3 but keep in mind, 2 of their losses came at the hands of Oregon and Ohio State who are currently ranked #1 and #4 in the nation respectively. Their other loss came 23-19 @ Boston College but MSU won the stat sheet in that game but had 4 turnovers. The Wolverines continue to be overvalued living off last year’s success. In fact, they’ve only covered 1 game this season (1-6 ATS) and their 2 wins in Big 10 play have both come at home by just 3 points while their losses were both by double digits. This team could easily be 0-4 in conference play. The Michigan offense is simply bad ranking 120th in total offense and 113th in YPP. They were hoping with Jack Tuttle back under center last week at Illinois the offense would get a jump start. Didn’t happen as they scored only 7 points and Tuttle wasn’t great. These 2 rivals have played nearly identical strength of schedules and MSU has the better stats (MSU +42 YPG and +0.7 YPP / Michigan -19 YPG and +0.0 YPP). This is a huge game for MSU as they’ve lost back to back years on blowout fashion to the Wolverines but they get their chance to make amends here with Michigan way down compared to previous editions. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -3 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets were a surprise team last season with a 41-41 record and just missed making the play in tournament. Expectations are much higher this season as their win total was set 12 wins higher than last year's number. They were just 8-point favorites at home against the Hornets and were upset after a horrendous shooting performance. The Rockets shot just 37% overall and 30% from Deep. Charlotte meanwhile hit 46% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc. Memphis is coming off a road win in Utah 126-124 as a -2.5-point favorite. One glaring aspect from that game was the rebound disparity as the Grizzlies were minus -13 boards in that game. Houston was 12th in Rebound Rate last season, Memphis was 25th. The other advantage the Rockets have is their transition defense that is one of the best in the league. Two years ago, with Morant the Grizzlies were very reliant on their transition offense which was 2nd in the NBA. The Rockets can nullify that advantage with their defense and if they shoot an average percentage will win this game by 8+ points. Houston won 3 of four meetings a year ago against this Memphis team with all three wins coming by 20, 13 and 7-points. Great line value here with Houston.

#116 ASA PLAY ON Boston College +7.5 over Louisville, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - The situational spot heavily favors BC here. They are at home after getting rolled @ Virginia Tech last Friday night. So they have had a full week to prepare. Their game vs Virginia Tech was a 28-21 score with less than 12 minutes remaining in the game and Tech sealed it with 2 TD’s in the 4th. It was a terrible performance by a BC defense that was allowing 20.6 PPG (31st nationally) entering the game. We expect them to bounce back in a big way at home on Friday night. The Eagles were +8 in that game @ Virginia Tech and now one week later they are +7 (as of this writing on Tuesday) at home vs Louisville team that power rates almost the exact same as the Hokies. Line value on Boston College. The Cards put in a huge effort last week at home in their most important game of the season vs Miami. Now they must travel on a short week after losing that game 52-45. Louisville was outgained by 1.6 YPP in that loss but benefited from a 100 yard kickoff return to keep it closer than it should have been. The defense was on the field a lot (35 minutes) and gave up nearly 8.0 YPP. The Cardinals have lost 3 of their last 4 games and their wins this season came vs Virginia (by 4 points), Georgia Tech (by 12 points – Louisville was outgained but had 2 defensive TD’s), Jacksonville State, and Austin Peay. Not overly impressive. BC is undefeated at home this season and 14-7-1 ATS in the home dog role since early in the 2017 season. Take the points.

ASA play on Minnesota Vikings -3 at LA Rams – 8:20 PM ET - We are buying on the Vikings to bounce back after the last second loss to the Lions on Sunday. While the Vikings were playing one of the best teams in the NFL, the Rams were facing one of the worst in the LV Raiders. The Rams won a tight game 20-15 and averaged just 5.0YPP against a porous Raiders defense. The Vikings averaged 7.4YPP against a very good Lions defense that allows just 5.5YPP on the season. The Rams still have significant injuries and an offensive line that can’t protect QB Stafford. That will be a major issue against the Vikings Brian Flores and his blitz happy scheme. The Rams allow 2.8 sacks per game and have a sack percentage of 7.87%, both rank 20th in the NFL. Minnesota’s defense is tied for 2nd in the league with 4.0 sacks per game and 8th in sack percentage. Conversely, Sam Darnold of the Vikings won’t be pressured in this game which presents a dangerous situation for the Rams secondary trying to contain Jefferson and Addison. The Rams are averaging just 1.8 sacks per game, 26th in the NFL. If we do a line comparison, the Packers were favored by 3-points here a few weeks ago. The Lions were favored by 5.5-points in Week 1. We would have the Vikings favored by -4.5 points here. Home underdogs on Thursday Night Football have been a wallet-busting bet of late with a 7-17 ATS run dating back 24 games.

#108 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State -20.5 over MTSU, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Jacksonville State has been the hottest team in CUSA over the last month.  They’ve won 3 straight by a combined score of 161 to 44.  They’ve outgained those 3 opponents (all comparable in our power ratings to this MTSU team) 1,616 to 866.  They’ve won each of those games by at least 37 points and they are healthy coming off a bye week.  Now they face a bad MTSU team that we have power rated as the 4th worst team in FBS.  The Blue Raiders just played Kennesaw State (who we have rated dead last in FBS) and won a tight game 14-5.  The yardage was about dead even in that game but KSU had 2 turnovers (0 for MTSU).  Just 2 weeks ago, Jacksonville State beat that Kennesaw State team 63-24 and outgained them by over 300 yards.  We don’t see any way this Middle Tennessee offense can keep up in this game.  They are averaging just 13.8 PPG (minus their 1 FCS game) and facing a Jacksonville State offense that is putting up an average of 49 PPG over their last 4.  We don’t see that changing here as they face an MTSU defense that ranks 129th in total defense, 132nd in YPP allowed, and 130th in scoring defense.  The Blue Raiders closest loss this season was by 17 points and the average score in their losses is 44-14.  Another blowout on the way Wednesday night.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -5.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx, Game 5 Sunday Oct 20th - In game 1 the Liberty obviously were the much better team for 35 minutes of game 1 and led by as many as 18-points and then lost. In Game 2 at home the Liberty bounced back and won by 14-points. These teams then split two close games in Games 3&4 with both being decided by 1-basket in each. Now back home we like the Liberty to earn the Championship and win by margin. New York was 2nd in both offensive & defensive rebounds per game during the regular season and have continued to dominate the glass in the postseason. The Liberty have outrebounded their opponents in every playoff game including the Finals against this Lynx team. Minnesota in comparison is last in rebounding percentage in the playoffs. The Liberty were 16-4 SU at home during the regular season with an average +/- of +7.0PPG. NY is 5-1 SU at home in the postseason with a +8.3PPG differential. Home teams in the WNBA Finals in this situation off a loss have historically been very good ATS. New York is 8-1 SU this season when coming off a loss. Lay it here with NY.

#455 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +9.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - If you looked at the season long key stats for these 2 teams, you’d have no idea one of them is 4-2 and the other is 1-4. In fact, the team with the 1-4 record has been better in the stat sheet this year. The Titans have a YPP margin of +0.1 and they’ve outgained their opponents by an average of +5 YPG this season. The Bills have a YPP margin of -0.1 and they’ve been outgained by -41 YPG this season. The problem with Tennessee is their turnover situation. They have a -7 turnover margin this year which is 31st in the NFL. If they can avoid the giveaways here, we actually think they have a shot to pull the upset. It’s a great spot to fade Buffalo as they are on a short week off a huge division win on Monday night topping the Jets 23-20. Buffalo was outgained in this game by 0.7 YPP and this offense has not looked good as of late scoring 10, 20 and 23 points in their last 3 games. Not ideal for a team that is laying nearly double digits in this one. They are facing a Tennessee defense that most probably don’t realize is #1 in the NFL in total defense and YPP allowed. The Titans rank in the top 10 in both rush and pass defense. They have held every opponent but one to 17 points or fewer this season. 3 of Tennessee’s 4 losses have come by 7 points or less. It’s going to be tough for Buffalo’s struggling offense to pull away in this one. We’ll take the generous points in what looks to be a lower scoring game with the total set at 41.

#461 ASA PLAY ON Miami Dolphins +3 over Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Fins are off bye week and had a win heading into their time off so they have some momentum. The bye week was key giving newly acquired QB Huntley some more time to get acclimated to the system. It also gives a very good offensive HC McDaniel extra time to get a game plan ready with Huntley under center. Miami looks pretty healthy after their week off and they get starting RB Achane back in the line up for this one. They are facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL as the Colts rank 30th in total defense, 31st vs the run, and 26th vs the pass. The vibe in Miami is good right now as well as they still have a shot in a weak division and they expect starting QB Tagovailoa back soon, possibly next week. A win here gets them back to .500 and hosting Arizona next week. The Colts are starting Richardson at QB for this game which we prefer. Flacco was solid in his absence and gives them a better chance to win in our opinion. Richardson is dead last in the NFL completing only 50% of his passes. He’s facing a very good Miami defense that allows just 285 YPG which is more than 100 yards better than the Indianapolis defense. On top of that, the Colts are really banged up on offense with RB Taylor most likely out along with their top 3 WR’s currently questionable. The Colts haven’t been able to put anyone away this season with their 3 wins coming by 3, 3, and 5 points. Indy is off back to back division games and they face another division opponent (Houston) next week. We give Miami a solid shot at the upset here so we’ll take the points.

#400 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +3 over LSU, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great situational spot here for the Razorbacks at home.  They are coming off a bye week while LSU is off an OT, come from behind, win over Ole Miss last Saturday.  In that win vs Ole Miss the Tigers were outgained, only had 84 yards on the ground, and needed a long drive in the final 3 minutes (aided by two 4th down conversions) just to get to OT where they won 29-26.  This is a tough spot now going on the road vs a solid Arkansas team that had big momentum heading into the bye upsetting Tennessee here at home.  In their only true road game this season, LSU topped South Carolina 36-33, but trailed by 17 points in the first half.  They led for just over 2:00 total minutes in that win.  They probably should have lost that game along with their game vs Ole Miss last week which would have put them at a 3-3 record and we’re talking about a completely different line in this game if that was the case.  Even their lone loss this season, 27-20 vs USC, isn’t looking great as the Trojans are now just 3-3.  These 2 SEC rivals have played almost identical strength of schedules to date, yet Arkansas has the better point differential, YPG margin, and YPP margin.  We also like that the host should have a solid advantage on the ground with a +94 YPG rushing margin on the season while LSU is -4 YPG rushing this season.  Razor QB Green was banged up in his last game, a win over Tennessee, but looks like he’s ready to go coming off the bye.  The Razorbacks have covered 7 of their last 8 as a dog and head coach Pittman has covered 22 of his last 30 when getting points.  We’ll call for another on Saturday. 

#409 ASA PLAY ON Auburn +4 over Missouri, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Missouri is 5-1 on the season and ranked in the top 20.  Auburn is 2-4 on the season yet this line is only Mizzou -4.5 at home?  The Auburn Tigers are much better than their record this season.  Despite being 2 games under .500, Auburn has outgained their opponents by an average of +107 YPG and they have a +2.3 YPP margin.  That’s facing a very tough schedule to date (36th SOS) having already played Georgia, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  The problem with Auburn has been turnovers.  They are already -11 turnovers on the season which is dead last in the country.  If they can rectify that, this team is really quite good.  They rank in the top 35 nationally in both total offense and total defense.  Missouri has played a light weight schedule this season.  Their strength of schedule is ranked 111th which is the 2nd easiest at the Power 4 level ahead of only Indiana.  They’ve faced only 1 team this season power rated inside our top 50 and that was Texas A&M who rolled Missouri 41-10 outgaining the Tigers 512 to 254.  The only other 2 teams with a pulse that Mizzou has faced this year were home games vs Vandy (Tigers won in OT) and Boston College (Tigers won by 6).  Despite playing an ultra easy schedule, Missouri is just +1.1 YPP margin which is far worse than Auburn’s who has faced a much more difficult slate.  Auburn is coming off a bye week and they’ve won all 3 meetings vs Missouri.  If Auburn can keep their turnovers in check, they’ll have a great shot to win this game outright. 

#321 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma State +9.5 over BYU, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid line value with OSU here just based on recent spreads involving BYU.  The Cougars were just favored by -2.5 last weekend at home vs Arizona, a team that rates nearly identical to Oklahoma State in our power ratings.  BYU was favored earlier this year by 9.5 (same number as we have on Friday) at home vs a Wyoming team that is among the worst in the country.  In their most recent road game, OSU was a 6 point dog @ Kansas State (who was favored by 7 @ BYU earlier this year) and we have the Wildcats rated a full 6 points better than BYU on a neutral field.  You get the point.  OSU has played back to back terrible games which is the reason this line sits where it is.  The Cowboys were rolled by both Kansas State and West Virginia their last 2 contests but now had 2 weeks off to regroup and prepare for this one.  BYU is 6-0 both SU and ATS but they’ve been pretty fortunate.  Last week in their blowout win over Arizona, the yardage was about even but the Wildcats had 4 turnovers.  They topped Baylor by 6 a week earlier in a game that was also basically even yardage wise and the Bears were shut out on downs inside BYU territory late.  A week earlier they topped KSU but were outgained by 125 yards and helped by the Cats who had 3 turnovers.  9 takeaways by BYU in the last 3 games isn’t sustainable.  When these 2 met last year @ Okie State, the Cowboys were favored by 17 and now getting nearly 10?  That’s a 27 point swing in one year.  In a similar spot last year, the Cowboys were 2-2 coming off losses vs South Alabama and Iowa State heading into their bye.  Coming out of their bye week they beat Kansas State as an 11 point underdog, won 5 in a row and 7 of their last 9.  OSU head coach Gundy has been around a long time and is a solid head man.  He’ll have them ready here.  Take the points.

ASA play on NY Jets +1 vs. Buffalo Bills, Monday 8:20 PM ET - One of the bigger public Sports Books is carrying this line as the Bills favored by 1-point with an overwhelming number of bets and “Joe’s” money on Buffalo. When we see that we immediately look at the other side of the ticket. Buffalo is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd straight road game after facing the Ravens and Texans on the road. The Bills lost both of those games after starting the season 3-0 against subpar competition. We are betting the Jets will get a bump this week with the coaching change as Saleh wasn’t well liked in the locker room and new coach Jeff Ulbrich is. They should also be better offensively with a new play caller Todd Downing takes over for Nathaniel Hackett. We have seen a regression in the Bills offense the past two weeks facing solid defenses similar to the Jets. Buffalo’s offense could be limited tonight with WR Shakir and RB Cook both listed as questionable. The Jets have not run the ball effectively with RB Hall this season ranking last in the league in RYPG but that could change tonight versus a banged-up Bills defense that is 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 32nd in yards per rush allowed at 5.2. The home team has won 5 straight in this series, make it 6 after tonight.

#285 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Sometimes the obvious bet is right, which is the case tonight. Cincinnati is in a dire situation with a 1-4 start to the season and desperately needs a win this week. This Bengals team had high hopes and were a team predicted to potentially win the AFC North. This team is just a few years removed from playing in the Super Bowl and loaded offensively. The Bengals are better than their record with the 2nd rated offense in terms of DVOA and the 22nd defensively. In comparison the Giants are 17th in DVOA offensively, 19th in defense. Cincinnati lost to Kansas City and Baltimore, who we have rated as the top two teams in the NFL. They also have a loss to the 4-1 Redskins. New York is 2-3 SU and coming off a shocking road win in Seattle last Sunday as a 7-point underdog.  The Giants have lost twice at home this season and are just 15-19-1 SU at home since 2020 with a negative differential of minus -4.4PPG. The Giants will be without their top receiver again this week with Nabers out and are also missing their top edge rusher with Thibodeaux out. The Giants will have a hard time keeping up in this one against a Bengals team that has put up 33+ points in three straight games. With Joe Burrows under center the Bengals have covered 10 of their last fourteen as a road chalk. Lay it!

#281 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -6 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Now that the NFL teams have had a few weeks to settle in, we are starting to see the cream rise to the top and Atlanta is certainly trending up. Carolina on the other hand is not. The Panthers got a 1-game bump when QB Dalton took over for Bryce Young and won at Las Vegas but since then they have lost two straight. Let’s face it, the win over Vegas isn’t that impressive considering the disarray that franchise is in right now. The Panthers then lost by double digits to Cincinnati at home and at Chicago the next two weeks. Last week the Panthers defense gave up 36-points and 6.1 Yards Per Play to the Bears who are averaging just 22.2PPG and 4.4YPP on the season. Atlanta has faced a tough schedule to start the season but is coming off their best game of the season against Tampa Bay. The Falcons put up 36-points and averaged 6.5YPP offensively. Atlanta has a +0.9 Yards Per Play differential compared to the Panthers who have the 4th worst YPP differential of minus -1. Atlanta is 9th in offensive DVOA, 20th defensively, Carolina is 29th and 30th. The Panthers had a negative point differential of minus -10.6PPG last season, minus -7PPG when at home.

#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars +1 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - This game is being played at Tottenham Stadium on London.  The Jags are more than familiar with playing in London as they’ve already been their 11 times (6-5 SU record).  In fact, they face Chicago on Sunday, then stay in London to play New England next week as well.  We like the been there, done that, situation for Jacksonville vs a young Chicago team making their first trip overseas since 2019.  The Bears are 3-2 on the season but a bit of a fraud in our opinion.  Their wins have come vs Tennessee, LA Rams, and Carolina who have a combined record of 3-11 and Chicago was outgained in 2 of those wins.  As you might expect based on those wins, the Bears have played one of the easiest strength of schedules to date (30th) yet they are still getting outgained by 0.6 YPP (3rd worst in the NFL).  They’ve only outgained 1 opponent on a YPP basis this season and that was Carolina rates as one of the worst few teams in the NFL.  Jacksonville was considered by many a playoff caliber team entering the season.  They have disappointed with a 1-4 record, however they have a better YPP margin than the Bears and have played the much more difficult schedule thus far.  Three of their four losses have coming by 5 points or less and they have some momentum heading overseas after beating the Colts last Sunday.  The offense, which ranks 11th in YPP, looked better than it has all season in that win putting up 37 points on nearly 500 yards.  Head coach Doug Pederson took over play calling duties for that one and it showed on the field.  The Bears offense is averaging only 287 YPG and 4.4 YPP which is 29th in the league.  The Jags should control the trenches here with their +0.9 YPC margin vs Chicago’s -0.7 YPC margin.  QB Trevor Lawrence finally had a breakout game last Sunday with 370 yards passing giving him some much needed confidence heading into this one.  Our power ratings have Jacksonville as a small favorite here so we’ll grab the points with the Jags.

#196 ASA PLAY ON UCLA +4 over Minnesota, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Minnesota is in a really rough spot here making the long travel to California after upsetting USC in Minneapolis last week. The Gophers scored the game winning TD with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game to win 27-24. USC outgained Minnesota in the game but turned the ball over 3 times and missed a FG. Gopher head coach PJ Fleck went nutty in the locker room post game as if they had just won the National Championship. That ended a huge 3 game stretch for Minnesota facing Iowa, Michigan, then USC (they lost the first 2 games). We would expect a letdown in this game in which they are expected to win. We were down on UCLA entering the season but they’ve shown a lot of fight despite their 1-4 record. They have played the #1 rated strength of schedule in the nation and they get a bit of a reprieve here after taking on Indiana, LSU, Oregon, and Penn State over their last 4 games. Those 4 opponents have a combined record of 20-1 on the season. UCLA has covered 3 in a row by an average of more than a TD per game. Last week @ PSU, the Bruins lost 27-11 as 4 TD dogs, were only outgained by 62 yards and held the vaunted Nittany Lion rushing attack to just 85 yards on 2.8 YPC. They have not given up, playing hard vs a brutal schedule and now they catch Minnesota in a great spot to get picked off. Big 10 teams that have traveled at least 2 times zones in conference play this year (West coast teams to the Midwest or East or vise versa) are 1-8 SU this season. The last 4 times Minnesota has been a road favorite, they are 0-4 ATS and lost 3 of those games outright. UCLA keeps this close and has a great shot at the upset.

#124 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia +3.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This is a perfect spot for overvalued vs undervalued in our opinion. WVU is 3-2 on the season with losses vs Penn State and Pitt who have a combined record of 10-0. The Mountaineers weren’t overly competitive in week 1 vs PSU which is understandable vs a top 5 team. They blew a 10 point lead with less than 4 minutes remaining vs Pitt so this WVU team could easily be 4-1. ISU steps in with an undefeated record but they’ve played a much easier schedule. Their best win was 20-19 vs in-state rival Iowa, a game that ISU never led until their game winning FG with 6 seconds left in the contest. Their other wins have come vs North Dakota, Arkansas State, Baylor (2-4 record), and Houston (2-4 record). The Cyclones are stepping up in class here and laying a full FG on the road. WVU has some solid momentum and should be fairly rested here as they roasted Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week and the Mountaineers were coming off a bye for that one. They absolutely dominated the Cowboys outgained them 558 to 227, including 389 to 36 on the ground. Speaking of the ground, West Virginia has one of the best rushing attacks in the country averaging 239 YPG on 6.0 YPC. They should control the ground game vs an Iowa State defense that allowed 155 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC. Dating back to early in the 2021 season, ISU has been a road favorite 9 times and they have a 3-6 ATS & SU record in those games. They are overvalued here due to their perfect mark vs a weak schedule. We like WVU to win this game at home.

#194 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -13.5 over Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - These 2 teams are both 3-2 but there is no comparison when looking at how these teams have gotten to this point. Texas State is the FAR superior team. TSU’s 2 losses came at the hands of Arizona State (by 3 points) and Sam Houston State (by 1 point). The Bobcats outgained both of those teams in losing efforts and blew an 18 point second half lead vs SHSU and a 7-point second half lead vs ASU. Their stats are extremely impressive and scream undefeated team. Despite their 3-2 record, the Bobcats are +12.6 PPG, +125 YPG, and +2.8 YPP. Arkansas State has the same 3-2 record, yet their numbers in those key stats are -9.2 PPG, -78 YPG, and -1.6 YPP. While Texas State has outgained each of their 5 opponents, Arkansas State has been outgained in all 5 of their games. The Red Wolves actually rank outside the top 100 in both total offense and total defense. Their wins came vs FCS Central Arkansas by 3 points, Tulsa who has a 2-4 record, by 4 points, and South Alabama, who has a 2-4 record, by 2 points. We were on South Alabama last week and Arkie State kicked a FG with 10 seconds remaining to win the game. TSU played @ Troy last week and blasted the Trojans 38-17 outgaining them by 130 yards including 215 to 63 on the ground. Not only is Texas State the much better team in this match up, they have massive revenge involved. This is a game they’ve been waiting for. That’s because last season, TSU was favored @ Arkansas State and lost 77-31. You read that correctly. Believe it or not, the Bobcats actually outgained ASU 539 to 494 in that loss but had 4 turnovers (0 for ASU) in that game. Not only that, 3 of the turnovers were a fumble returned for a TD along with 2 pick 6’s. On top of that, Arkansas State also had a 93 yard kickoff return so 4 non-offensive TD’s in the game. We don’t think Arkansas State, who is averaging 21 PPG, can keep up here vs a motivated Texas State team that has already scored at least 34 points in 4 of their 5 games. Blowout expected here.

#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3 over California, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for the Golden Bears. This team will have a hard time getting up off the mat after blowing a huge lead at home vs Miami last week. Cal led the Canes by 20 points with just over 10 minutes remaining in game last Saturday and they lost 39-38. Miami scored 3 TD’s in the final 10:28 to get the 1 point win including the game winner with 28 seconds remaining. Now they have to make the long 2500 mile trip to Pittsburgh which will be the Bears 3rd trip to the east time zone since Sept 7th. That means this Cal team will have already traveled almost 13,000 miles in the last 5 weeks when they land in Pittsburgh for this game. Their devastating home loss vs Miami on Saturday actually wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. How the Bears pulled out to a 20 point lead is tough to comprehend as they were outgained by 205 total yards and had 18 fewer first downs. The Canes held a 15 minute time of possession edge and ran 86 offensive snaps which should lead the Cal defense running out of gas in this game, especially as the game wears on. While the Bears were blowing a huge lead at home, Pitt went into North Carolina and won 34-24 outgaining the Heels by over 100 yards. They won by 10 despite the Tar Heels scoring on an 86 yard pick 6 which was potentially a 14 point turnaround with Pitt going into score. The Panthers are now 5-0 with solid wins over UNC, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. It’s not a fluke the Panthers are undefeated as their stats have been dominant. On the season they are +20 PPG, +152 YPG, +2.3 YPP, and +2.9 yards per rush. Cal is 3-2 on the season and in those stats they are +8 PPG, +28 YPG, +0.7 YPP, and +0.2 yards per rush. One of their long road trips was a loss @ a bad Florida State team giving the Noles their only win so far this season. Pitt is at home and is full focused heading into a bye week. Easy win for the Panthers in this one.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -6 vs. Minnesota Lynx, Game 1 Thursday Oct 10th - Scheduling clearly favors the Liberty here who have been off for a week, while the Lynx will be playing their 3rd game this week. One thing we’ve learned this WNBA season is that depth is a huge concern for the majority of the teams in the league. It will be tough for Minnesota to get up again after their grueling 5-game series with the Sun. A demoralizing factor in this game will be the rebounding advantage the Liberty have. New York was 2nd in both offensive & defensive rebounds per game during the regular season and have continued to dominate the glass in the postseason. The Liberty have outrebounded their opponents in every playoff game and will limit the Lynx second chance opportunities. Minnesota in comparison is last in rebounding percentage in the playoffs. New York has been really good at home and has won by margin. The Liberty were 16-4 SU at home during the regular season with an average +/- of +7.0PPG. NY is 4-0 SU at home in the postseason with a +9.3PPG differential. Minnesota has beaten the Liberty 3 of four this season but this is simply a bad scheduling situation for them and will be tough to hang within double-digits.

ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +5.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Chiefs are undefeated but their point differential is just +20 (7th in the NFL). All 4 of their wins this season have come by a TD or less. KC has won 8 of last 9 dating back to last season but 7 of those 8 wins have been one score games so they are not pulling away from teams in their wins. KC’s overall stats are pretty darn average for a team that is 4-0. They are 15th in YPP margin at +0.2 and have outgained opponents overall by just +2 YPG. On top of that, the Chiefs have LOTS of injuries on offense missing their top RB as well as their top 3 WR’s entering the season. The Saints are now 2-2 so this is a bigger game for them. Their 2 wins were both blowouts, but their losses were each down to the wire losing by 3 vs Philly and by 2 vs Atlanta. In their 26-24 loss @ Atlanta last week, New Orleans outgained the Falcons but the Birds had 2 defensive TD’s in the game. Despite their 2-2 record, New Orleans has outgained 3 of their 4 opponents and they have a better YPP margin when compared to the Chiefs. The Saints have been a long term money maker on the road going 35-18 ATS away from home over the last 6+ seasons. Lastly, in MNF games when an AFC team faces an NFC team, the home teams have been terrible with a spread record of just 12-32-2 ATS (27.3%). We give the Saints a decent shot at the upset here but worst case we like them to keep this close.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Rams are really banged up right now and it shows in their performances this season.  They will again be without their top 2 WR’s Cupp & Nakua and their offensive still has issues.  Partly due to that, their offense has struggled scoring just 18.8 PPG while only averaging 5.2 YPP.  That’s not good when your defense can’t stop anyone.  LA ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.4 YPP and dead last in rushing defense giving up 165 YPG on the ground on 5.0 YPC.  That’s not a good recipe for success especially in this game vs a Green Bay offense that is averaging 175 YPG rushing which is 2nd in the league.  The Packers struggle offensively to start last week’s game which was expected at QB Love was back but had missed a few weeks prior.  However, in the 2nd half GB kicked it in gear and nearly won in a game they trailed 28-7 at half (31-29 final).  Once Love and the offense got comfortable and back in synch they tallied over 300 yards in the 2nd half alone.  We think they’ll pick up where they left off vs this suspect Rams defense.  LA is just not playing well right now.  They rank 31st in YPP differential ahead of only New England and they have been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this season.  The only team they outgained in the stats was Chicago last week which wasn’t a surprise as the Bears rank last in the NFL in YPP offense.  We like Green Bay to win this one by more than a FG.

#457 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Not sure why Jacksonville is favored by a full FG here (as of this writing on Friday).  They are the only winless team in the NFL and they’ve only won 1 of their last 9 games dating back to last season.  Jags QB Lawrence has been disappointing to say the least losing his last 9 times a starting QB and he ranks 23rd in the NFL this year in passing yards and QBR.  With their 0-4 record to start the season, Jacksonville’s chance of making the playoffs are basically nil and you have to wonder what their mindset is moving forward.  They have very little home field advantage with a 3-6 SU record since the start of last season.  The Jags are also just 16-32 as a home favorite dating back to the start of the 2008 season.  The Colts are 2-2 after topping previously undefeated Pittsburgh last week but their stats say they are better than that.  Their YPP differential is +0.7 which is the 8th best mark in the NFL (Jags are -1.0 YPP).  Looks like Indy will start Joe Flacco at QB (if not we’re good with Richardson under center as well) and we feel he might be a one game upgrade over Anthony Richardson.  We often see a one game surge from a team that loses their starting QB and Flacco came in last week after Richardson was injured vs a very good Pittsburgh defense and threw for 168 yards and 2 TDs.  We like Indy to keep this close and we’ll take the FG.

#330 ASA PLAY ON Coastal Carolina -5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - This is a fantastic spot to back CC and fade ODU. Coastal is coming off a bye-week and will be rested and have the perfect gameplan in place for the Monarchs. Old Dominion is coming off a last second win on the road at Bowling Green. ODU averaged just 5.1YPP against Bowling Green and needed a TD with just .24-seconds left to pull out the road upset. Old Dominion had lost three straight games prior with 19, 14 and 17 points offensively. Coastal Carolina was 3-0 SU prior to a loss to Virginia on Sept 21st. CC put up 390 yards in the loss to UVA but were minus -2 in TO’s. Virginia pounded Coastal on the ground with their rushing attack which ranks 30th in college football. ODU does not possess that type of rushing attack, and they may be down to their second-string QB here as their starter, Wilson, went out last game in the 3rd quarter. The Monarchs have one of the worst passing attacks in the country averaging just 145PYPG on the season with a completion rate of 53.10% which ranks 117th. Old Dominion has a negative point differential of minus -6.8PPG this season and were minus -7.4PPG on the road a year ago. Last year Coastal Carolina won at ODU 28-24 but they outgained the Monarchs by over 110 total yards. CC is 23-5 SU their last 28 home games. ODU has lost 14 of their last 20 road games by an average of minus -6PPG.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE (SBC) GAME OF THE MONTH: #387 ASA PLAY ON South Alabama -3 over Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Arkansas State has the better record at 2-2 while South Alabama sits at 2-3 yet we feel the Jaguars are the much better team in this match up.  Arkie State could easily be 0-4 on the season as their wins over Central Arkansas and Tulsa by 3 & 4 points respectively.  The Red Wolves were outgained 7.1 YPP to 5.0 YPP vs FCS Central Arkansas and 5.9 YPP to 5.3 YPP vs Tulsa.  They were extremely fortunate to come out with 2 wins in those games.  On the season Arkansas State had a YPG margin of -120, a YPP margin of -2.2 and a YPC (rushing) margin of -3.2.  Compare that to South Alabama who has a YPG margin of +21, a YPP margin of +0.4, and a YPC margin of +1.7.  The Jaguars should have a massive edge on the ground in this game 210 YPG rushing on 6.2 YPC vs a Arkansas State defense 234 yards on the ground (129th) on 6.0 YPC (131st).  The Wolves have been outgained by at least 1.8 YPC in all 4 of their games this season.  The South Alabama offense is potent and we don’t see ASU keeping up here.  They rank 19th nationally in total offense (470 YPG) and 21st putting up 7.1 YPP.  ASU ranks 104th and 125th in those 2 stats.  On top of that, we don’t see the Arkansas State defense making up for their offensive deficiencies here as they rank outside the top 100 in total defense and YPP allowed.  South Alabama has won 5 straight in this series and last year they were favored by 15.5 so getting them at -3 here is a bargain.  The Jags already proved they can get it done on the road beating App State 48-14 a few weeks ago and we have App State rated as a better team that Arkansas State.  Let’s lay this small number with South Alabama.

#378 ASA PLAY ON Connecticut -17 over Temple, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UConn is rolling right now to say the least.  They are coming off a 47-3 blowout win over Buffalo last week.  A week earlier they rolled FAU here at home 48-14.  In their 3 games at home the Huskies have scored 158 for an average of 52 PPG.  The 2 teams they just destroyed here we have both rated better than this Temple squad who we have rated in the bottom 10 nationally.  The Owls may be without their starting QB Simon who injured his shoulder in last week’s 48-14 home loss vs Army.  Their back up QB Brock has an injured wrist so there is a chance this bad Owls offense (119th in total offense) will be down to their 3rd string signal caller.  In their 2 road games this season, Temple has been outscored 89-14.  Their rush defense ranks 131st allowing 261 YPG on 5.9 YPC.  That won’t cut it here vs this UConn running game that is up to 12th nationally averaging 245 YPG and they’ve rushed for a ridiculous 1,300+ yards in their 3 home games.  UConn starting QB Evers left last week’s blowout win with an injury but back up Fagnano is a better passer and has played plenty this season.  He makes this offense even tougher to defend in our opinion.  He came in last week, let the Huskies to 34 of their 47 points, had over 200 yards passing and 3 TDs.  We were on UConn last week in an easy win and we’re not back off this money train this week.  They’ve covered their last 4 games by an average of 29 points above and beyond the spread and we anticipate another easy win on Saturday vs a bad Temple team.

#367 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +6.5 over UNLV, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some pretty good line value with the Orange in this game.  Our power ratings have UNLV favored by a FG here.  To put this number in perspective, last week the Rebels played host to Fresno State and they were favored by -2.5 to -3 range.  We have Cuse favored by a full TD over Fresno on a neutral field in our ratings.  Others we respect are in the same range.  This line has moved too much based on UNLV’s 59-14 win over Fresno.  While impressive, the fact is Fresno had 4 turnovers (0 for UNLV) which led to a number of very good offensive situations for the Rebels who scored TD’s on drives of 25 yards, 29 yards, a 90 yard punt return, and blocked punt return.  UNLV played with their back up QB Williams (transfer from Campbell) after their starter quit the team early in the week because of an NIL dispute.  Williams looked very good, but now Cuse has film on him and teams often get that one game, rally the troops, boost in this type of situation.  UNLV has faced one Power 4 opponent this year, Kansas, and while they won by a FG, the Rebs were dominated in the stats 6 YPP to 4.1 YPP, 6.4 yards per pass attempt to 4.8, and 5.7 YPC to 3.9.  That’s a Kansas team that is now 1-4 and the Jayhawks were favored by 9 in that game.  Now we have UNLV laying nearly a full TD in this one.  Syracuse rolled over Holy Cross and their lone loss was a 2 point setback vs Stanford in a game they outgained the Cardinal.  The Orange are one of the better passing teams in the nation (#3 averaging 372 passing YPG) and UNLV has struggled vs the pass (60th) despite only playing one QB who is a solid passing threat.  That was last week vs Fresno’s Mikey Keene who threw for over 300 yards on 66% completion rate.  We expect Syracuse QB McCord (former Ohio State starter) to have a big day and keep the Orange in this one all the way.  Take the points.

WNBA play on Minnesota -4 vs. Connecticut Tuesday, 9:30 PM ET - Off the home loss in Game 1, we like the Lynx to bounce back in Game 2 and even this series at 1-1. After two monster scoring games of 38, 42-points against the Mercury in the first round, Napheesa Collier, struggled in G1 versus the Sun with 19-points. As a team the Lynx struggled shooting at 42% overall and just 25% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly lower than their season averages of 44.8% overall and 38% from Deep (1st in WNBA). Granted, this Sun is a very good defensive team and that has something to do with the poor shooting night but you can bet there is an upward regression for the Lynx shooting in Game 2. The Sun also had an unusual great shooting night themselves in G1 by hitting 41% of their 3-pointers. They shoot just 32.7% on the season and the Lynx held opponents to 30.1%, best percentage in the W. Minnesota is 16-5 SU their last 21 home games with an average margin of victory of +7.5PPG. Minnesota is 23-8 SU their last 31 at home and have lost back-to-back games just twice this season.

#292 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3.5 over Seattle Seahawks, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Seattle comes into this game with a 3-0 record be we feel they are vastly overvalued early in the season.  They’ve played 3 cupcake games thus far and now are finally on the road vs a legit playoff type team.  They’ve played Denver with a rookie QB making his first ever start, @ New England (won in OT), and then vs Miami with Skylar Thompson at QB.  Their overall numbers, especially on defense, are not as good as they may seem.  Seattle ranks #1 vs the pass but again they’ve faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson.  Now they face Jared Goff at home where he has won 13 of his last 16 games and his home stats have been fantastic (70% completion rate last year with 19 TD’s).  In their only road game, Seattle struggled to slow down New England’s running game (185 yards on 5.1 YPC) and now they face a Detroit rushing attack that rates 4th in the NFL at 163 YPG.  Seattle is also really banged up on defense with potentially 4 starters out for this game and a few more in the 2 deep will have to sit as well.  One of Goff’s rare home losses was last year vs this Seattle team.  Detroit outplayed the Hawks averaging more YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempts but lost in OT.  The Lions turned the ball over 3 times in that OT loss (0 for Seattle) including a pick 6 which was the difference in the game.  A little extra motivation for Detroit in this one.  The line value is solid as Detroit was favored by 5 here last year, they were favored over playoff team Tampa Bay by 7.5 just a few weeks ago and last week on the road they were -3 @ Arizona.  This is a big home game for the Lions who are 2-1 and take the road for 4 of their next 5 games.  They lead the NFL in YPG margin at +106 and if they avoid the turnover bug, we like them to win this game by at least a TD.

WNBA top play on Minnesota -4 vs. Connecticut Sun, 8:30 PM ET - If you have been following us for any length of time you’ve heard us say many times the Lynx are the best team in the league. Napheesa Collier is one of the best in the league and she clearly upped her game in the first two playoff games against the Mercury with 38 and 42-points. Those numbers come against Brittney Griner who is labeled as a defensive stopper. Minnesota is 16-4 SU their last 20 home games with an average margin of victory of +10PPG. Connecticut is coming off a series with the Fever and got a ton of media coverage with Caitlyn Clark in town. They won big in game 1 of that series and won close in game 2. That was against a Fever team that is one of the worst defensive teams in the W, Minnesota is one of the best. These two teams have near-even season statistics when it comes to Offensive & Defensive Net ratings, but we like the scheduling situation here to back the Lynx. Minnesota is 23-7 SU their last 30 at home and will benefit from the home crowd in this one. Lay it.