#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a top play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #5 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 17-10 record and 3.34 ERA. The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 9-14 record and 4.86 ERA. Kansas City is an incredibly bad 8-32 in games against teams with a winning record this season! Baltimore is 21-9 in games against teams with a losing record this season. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a home blowout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Royals 46 losses this season have included 39 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Kyle Gibson has a 7-3 record and 3.87 ERA this season! The Orioles hurler has allowed just 6 earned runs in 24.2 innings over his last 4 starts! The Royals counter with opener Carlos Hernandez but Mike Mayers is expected to get the bulk of the work here. This is another reason we like action on the starting pitchers. Hernandez, the past two seasons, has an 0-8 mark and 6.29 ERA. As for Mayers, he has made only 4 appearances so far this season and he has struggled in 2 of his 3 road outings. The first one, walks were an issue and now in his most recent outing he got crushed at Miami. Orioles enter this game with wins in 13 of 18 games against Central Division opponents this season. Of last 25 wins, 20 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for Kansas City, the Royals enter this one on a 5-game losing streak and have lost 23 of last 30 on the road. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +110 money range with the Orioles. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* MIAMI HEAT +3.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 4 Friday 8:30 PM ET - This is tough for me as we predicted the Nuggets in 5 games but with how the last game played out, we expect Game 4 to go down to the wire. The Nuggets adapted in Game 3 after the Heat used Jimmy Butler as the primary defender on Murray in G2 and it paid off with Jamal scoring 34-points. Now it’s Spoelstra’s turn to make an adjustment and we’re confident he will have a new dynamic in Game 4 for the Nugget to try and figure out. Denver used Jokic and Murray in an exclusive 2-man game and told the rest of the team to watch and it worked perfectly. Miami’s defense wasn’t the main culprit though as their offense failed them. The Heat shot just 37% overall and 31% from the 3-point line. In the postseason, the Heat are shooting .469% overall and .392% from beyond the arc. Miami has been the best overall 3-point shooting team in the playoffs. With their backs against the wall, we like the Miami shooters to find the range at home in this do-or-die Game 4. Miami is 17-6 SU at home off a loss this season including a 5-2 SU record in the postseason. Grab whatever points are available.

#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Marlins -1.5 on the Run Line (+130) over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - With yesterday's 9 to 6 win the Marlins are entering this match-up on a 9-3 run over their past dozen games.  This includes 4 straight wins.  Also, 8 of the 9 wins have been by at least a 2-run margin!  Kansas City certainly falls into an entirely different category as they enter this one 18-42 on the season and with 12 of their last 13 losses by 2 or more runs.  The Royals enter this match-up having gone 6-27 in games against teams with a winning record this season!  They are 5-11 against left-handed starters and face a tough one here as Jesus Luzardo expected to get the ball for Miami.  Though he has a 4.05 ERA so far this season, he had a 3.32 ERA last season and is going to take advantage of facing a weaker foe here and he does have a 3.35 ERA at home this season.  As for the expected Kansas City starter, Zack Greinke, he has been decent this season but is 0-10 the last two seasons combined in his road starts.  Throughout his career, Greinke is known for struggling more on the road than at home and that has been the trend with him again this season.  Also, going against Greinke here is the fact that it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like KC that struggles at the plate plus ranks just ahead of Oakland in terms of having a league-worst bullpen.  You have one of the worst teams in MLB against a winning team that is starting to heat up.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a solid comeback price in the +130 money range with the Marlins. Lay it!

ASA NBA Top Play on 10* Miami Heat +8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 2 Sunday 8 PM ET - Game 1 went according to plan as the Nuggets dominated a tired Heat team and had the spread covered with 5-minutes to go in the 2nd quarter and never let the lead slip below double digits. We like Denver to win this series BUT we will grab the points in Game 2 given how Game 1 played out. The Heat lost by 11-points despite shooting just 41% overall and making 13 of 39 3-point attempts. They also attempted just 2 free throws the entire game. All of those numbers are extremely low based on what Miami has done this entire postseason. The Heat own the best 3PT% in the playoffs at .387%. They have been the 6th best overall shooting team at .468%. On average they have attempted 20 free throws per game, making on average 16.1. In Game 1 the Nuggets shot above expectations at 51% overall, made 30% of their 3’s (slightly lower than playoff average) and hit 16 of 20 FT’s. If Miami has an ‘average’ game by their playoff standards, they will keep this game within double digits. They now have extra days rest and time to get acclimated to the higher altitude of Denver. We are betting on Jimmy Butler being much better than his 13-points on 14-field goal attempts. We also expect Martin, Strus and Robinson to shoot much better from beyond the arc than they did in Game 1 when they were a combined 2 for 16. Yes, Denver has not lost at home in the postseason, but the Heat have also won 6 road games in the playoffs. This game will be much closer than the last. Grab the points.

#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Marlins -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - With yesterday's dominant 12 to 1 win the Marlins are entering this match-up on a 6-2 run over their past 8 games. Oakland certainly falls into an entirely different category as they enter this one 12-48 on the season and with 38 of their 48 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's enter this afternoon match-up having gone a putrid 1-24 in day games this season! They are 8-34 against right-handed starters and face a tough one here as Sandy Alcantara expected to get the ball for Miami. Though he has a 4.93 ERA so far this season, he had a 2.28 ERA last season and is going to take advantage of facing a weaker foe here. As for the expected Athletics starter, Paul Blackburn, he is returning from injury. Though his first start went okay, he took 81 pitches to complete 4 innings and he did struggle in his rehab starts before making that first MLB appearance of this season. Also going against Blackburn here is that it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like Oakland that struggles at the plate plus has a league-worst bullpen. Oakland enters this game 4-13 in inter-league matchups. You have one of the worst teams in MLB against a winning team that is starting to heat up. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Marlins. Lay it!

#951 ASA PLAY ON 8* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 5:10 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers have been slumping with losses in 9 of last 14 games and the Reds actually have won 5 of 6 but the wins came on the road and Cincinnati is just 2-5 last 7 games at home.  Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will quickly bring the Reds back to reality here and the Brewers will break out of their slump tonight in this early evening match-up.  Burnes has been top notch this season ever since working out the kinks in his first two starts of the season.  Since that time, he has allowed just 16 earned runs in his last 9 starts. In his last 54 innings of work he has been excellent in striking out 53!  The turnaround for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season!  Also, we are going action on pitchers here because the Reds are expected to start Brandon Williamson (5.02 ERA) but this is also a play against situation the way we see it as Cincinnati is 6-13 last 19 against the Brewers plus 13-24 against right-handed starters this season. As for Reds starter Williamson, he was 1-5 with 4.07 ERA at AAA level last season and 2-4 with a 6.62 ERA this season at the AAA level.  He had some success in his MLB debut this season but has struggled in each of the two starts since and we look for the fade to continue for Williamson in this outing.  6 of last 7 Reds losses have been by at least a 2-run margin and 71% of Milwaukee wins this season have been by a multi-run margin.  This game has road blowout written all over it.  We like the Brewers on the run line in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -8.5 vs. Boston Celtics, Game 1 Thursday, 8:30 PM ET - I was watching Game 7 of the Heat/Celtics the other night and when it became obvious that the Heat were going to win, I started immediately thinking about Game 1 of the Finals. I actually said to my wife, if the playoff sporadic Celtics were favored by 10-points at home in Game 2 of that series that suggests the Nuggets should be favored by 12 in Game 1 given the circumstances. The Heat have played a gauntlet of brutally tough games/series and now must travel to the higher altitude of Denver to face a Nuggets team that has been off 9-days. Eventually, everyone’s legs will go for the Heat as they are not that deep to begin with. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Heat “sacrifice” Game 1 to try and steal Game 2. Teams with at least 7 days of extra rest are 4-1 SU in Game 1’s. The Heat were the 4th worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season but have miraculously shot over 43% in their series against the Bucks and Celtics. Miami has the 23rd EFG% in the NBA at 53.2% while Denver has the best overall EFG% at 57%. Denver had the 13th best EFG% defense, Miami own’s the 23rd worst. The Nuggets are undefeated at home in the playoffs with an average +/- of +12PPG. Denver was also a much better team defensively at home this season allowing just 1.107-points per possession (5th) during the regular season. Lastly, I typically don’t talk matchups, but the Nuggets have a decisive advantage with Nikola Jokic over anyone the Heat throw at him. Adebayo can’t match him in the post and can’t exploit him defensively on the perimeter. In fact, Joker is 10-2 SU lifetime versus Adebayo. Overall, the Nuggets have won 9 of the past 10 meetings over the last 5 seasons. We like Denver BIG in Game 1.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7 vs. Miami Heat, Game 7 @ 7:30 PM ET - Pressure! All the pressure now sits squarely on the Miami Heat as they have blown a 3-0 lead in this series and could potentially be the first team ever to lose a playoff series in that scenario. Last time out the shooting for both teams was the storyline. Boston couldn’t make a 3-pointer as they shot just 20% from Deep. They did, however, shoot 63% on 2-pointers and made 29 of 34 FT’s. Miami on the other hand shot 47% from beyond the arc but hit just 30% from inside the line. The added value in the line is also significant in this elimination game. The three previous games between these two teams in Boston had you laying -8.5, -10 and -8.5 points. I’m betting the Celtics have another shooting game as they did in Game 5 at home when they won by 13-points. The C’s shot 41% from the 3-point line in that game and own the 6th best 3PT% in the NBA. Would we be surprised to see Miami struggle to shoot again? No! The Heat were a bad shooting team all season long ranking 26th in team FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston at home and predict a Celtic win by 15.

#970 ASA PLAY ON 8* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - Now we get even more line value here as we fade a team on a 7 game losing streak. Oakland's JP Sears has some decent numbers but the Mariners Logan Gilbert has been even better and so now the price at -1.5 runs in the pick'em range means we have excellent value on the run line in this one. We have successfully gone to the "play against" well a handful of times already this season when it comes to the Athletics. That said, we have no hesitation in this spot again, and just like yesterday, will come right back and go against them again here as Oakland continues to be the worst team in baseball. The Mariners have struggled this season against teams with a winning record but have feasted against non-winning teams this season and have gone 18-7 against them! Oakland is 10-41 this season and simply consistently bad. They are 5-20 at home and 5-21 on the road this season. Yes, they consistently lose 80% of their games. Of course that is why they are a huge underdog here but we can get a reasonable price on the Mariners by playing Seattle at -1.5 on the run line in this one. The Mariners have won by 2 or more runs in 20 of their 25 wins this season. The A's have had 32 of 41 losses by at least a 2-run margin this season. This included, prior to Tuesday's 1-run loss, 14 of 15 losses by at least a 2-run margin of defeat for Oakland. The Athletics have a bullpen ERA of 6.57 which ranks dead last in the majors while Seattle's relief pitching has a 3.07 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors. We like the Mariners to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers. However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Seattle as well. The expected starter for Seattle is Gilbert. The starter slated for the Athletics is Sears. The Oakland left-hander has a 4.99 ERA and an 0-3 record so far this season. Sears has some good numbers versus Mariners but has only faced them once at Seattle and we expect the M's to be stronger against him here on their home field after seeing him at Oakland earlier this season. Gilbert was 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA last season and now this season he has been heating up with 29 strikeouts compared to just 16 hits allowed so far in the month of May. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like Monday's and Wednesday's routs that sandwiched the tight 1-run win Tuesday (17-3 combined score in the two blowouts).

ASA top play on Miami Heat +8 vs. Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - Boston may win this game but asking them to cover is too much. The Heat have clearly been the better team in this series overall and have largely outplayed Boston for the majority of the series. In the Celtics Game 4 win the Heat shot poorly at 44% overall and 25% from the 3-point line. The Heat had shot well in the previous 3 games by hitting over 52% from Deep in two of three games and over 46% in all three. Miami has the 2nd best average point differential in the NBA in the Playoffs at +4.7PPG which trails only the Nuggets at +8.3PPG. Miami is 5th in points allowed per possession in the postseason compared to the Celtics who rank 10th allowing 1.138PPP. Offensively the Celtics have a slight edge in the playoffs averaging 1.182-points per possession, but the Heat are right behind the at 1.170PPP. The Heat match up well with Boston which is why they’ve covered 5 of the last six meetings overall and 4 of the last five in Boston. We like the points here with Miami.

ASA top play on 10* LA LAKERS -3 vs. Denver Nuggets – Game 4 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - We're betting there is enough pride left in the Lakers locker room to come out with a motivated effort here to avoid getting embarrassed and swept in the Playoffs. The Lakers have outplayed the Nuggets for a majority of the games but have fallen victim to big runs by the Nuggets, like the 13-0 run in the 4th quarter of last game. The key to this game is the line value. This line is where the Game 3 number should have been so now, we get to back a L.A. team at the proper number. The Lakers were 30-19 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of nearly +5PPG. They shoot 48.1% overall at home and hold foes to 45.2%. Denver has not been a great road team this season with a 22-25 SU road record and an average differential of minus -2.1PPG. The Nuggets defense on the road has been suspect this season as they allow opponents to make 49.4% of their field goal attempts and give up 115.1PPG. As long as LeBron and Anthony Davis show up tonight we should be in a good position to win with the Lakers.

#914 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We won with Houston in this spot yesterday and will come right back with them again here. The Astros have won 5 straight games and are hosting an Athletics team that has the worst record in the league. Not only that, the A's are an incredibly bad 1-18 in day games this season. Yes 18 of 19 afternoon games for the Athletics have seen them on the losing end. Oakland has a bullpen ERA of 6.56 which ranks dead last in the majors while Houston's relief pitching has a 3.07 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors. The A's are 10-36 on the season and we like the Astros to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers. However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Houston as well. The expected starter for Houston is Hunter Brown. The starter slated for the Athletics is JP Sears. The Oakland left-hander has a 5.27 ERA and is winless in his 8 starts this season. Brown had limited action last season but was great and now he has been working as a starter this season and has been rock solid. He is now 6-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his career and has allowed an average of just 2 earned runs in his 8 starts this season. He can step up here again at home in Houston and deliver a solid start versus a bad Oakland team whose .215 batting average versus right-handers is the worst in the American League. 20 of 25 Astros wins have been by at least a 2-run margin this season. 81% of Athletics losses have been by a multi-run margin as 29 of their 36 defeats have been by 2+ runs. Oakland has lost 10 of 12 games and each of the A's last 12 losses have been by 2+ runs. Houston has won 8 of 9 games including 5 in a row. This game has home blowout written all over it again. We like the Astros on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like yesterday's here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -8.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 2 at 8:30 PM ET - Don’t be intimidated by the number in this one. When the Heat faced the Bucks they were dogs by 9-points and 13-points in two of the games in Milwaukee. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. In Game 1 the Heat caught fire (no pun intended) by hitting 54% of their FG attempts and 52% of their 3-point attempts (16 of 31). As we previously reported, that won’t continue in Game 2 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the league and the Heat are 27th in the league 3PT% at 34.4%. We like Boston at home off that loss and predict a Celtic win by 15.

#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Oakland Athletics, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Astros have won 4 straight games and are hosting an Athletics team that has the worst record in the league.  Oakland has a bullpen ERA of 6.62 which ranks dead last in the majors while Houston's relief pitching has a 3.15 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors.  The A's are 10-35 on the season and we like the Astros to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers.  However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Houston as well.  The expected starter for Houston is Brandon Bielak.  The starter slated for the Athletics is Ken Waldichuk.  The Oakland left-hander has a 7.02 ERA and opponents are hitting .310 against him in his 8 starts this season.  Bielak has limited action both this season and last season but his lone home start this season was solid and 2 of his 3 appearances at home last season (all were long relief appearances) were solid.  He can step up here again at home in Houston and deliver a solid start versus a bad Oakland team whose .214 batting average versus right-handers is the worst in the American League.  19 of 24 Astros wins have been by at least a 2-run margin this season.  80% of Athletics losses have been by a multi-run margin as 28 of their 35 defeats have been by 2+ runs.  Oakland has lost 9 of 11 games and each of the A's last 11 losses have been by 2+ runs.  Houston has won 7 of 8 games including 4 in a row.  This game has home blowout written all over it.  We like the Astros on the run line in this one.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 1 8:30 PM ET - The value in the number tells us to back the Celtics at home in the opener. In the two games in Milwaukee that Giannis played in the Bucks were favored by 9-points and 13-points. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. These two teams split their regular season meetings with the favorite covering 3 of the four. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston by double-digits in the opener.

#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Padres have been slumping but they faced a tough road slate with 6 straight away games before this series started.  As for the Royals, their 4 most recent wins (before yesterday's 5-4 victory over here at San Diego) came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics.  The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season.  Facing San Diego's ace Yu Darvish will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Padres will break out of their slump tonight.  San Diego did win the first game of this series 4-0 and another big win should come here.  Darvish ranked 7th in the N.L. in strike outs last season!  He is piling up strikeouts again this season plus has allowed only 1 earned in 3 of his 4 home starts this season.  We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Carlos Hernandez (5.05 career ERA) but he will be more of an opener as he has been working out of the bullpen again this season and is unlikely to go more than 3 innings here.  That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Hernandez.  Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Padres lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 4.86 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB.  Also, the Royals had lost 14 of last 18 road games before yesterday's rare win.  Speaking of rare, the Royals have struggled to build any momentum this season with their longest winning streak being 2 games.  Also, KC is 0-4 this year when off a 1-run win and they took yesterday's game by a 5-4 count.  26 of 31 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 85% of San Diego wins this season have been by a multi-run margin.  This game has home blowout written all over it.  We like the Padres on the run line in this one.

#44 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Edmonton Oilers Puck Line (-1.5 goals +130) over Vegas Golden Knights, Sunday at 10 PM ET - We know Edmonton is going to bring it on home ice here after the tough Game 5 loss.  We like the Oilers no matter who is in goal here as the Knights injured Brossoit did not even travel with the team. The Knights choices are the P/O inexperienced Hill or rusty Jonathan Quick here.  The Oilers, when off a loss, are a perfect 8-0 the last 8.  As for laying the 1.5 goals here, the Oilers wins in this series was by a 5-1 final at Vegas and all 3 of their home wins in this post-season (including 2 against the Kings) were by multi-goal margins - 14 to 6 aggregate on those three games.  The Oilers, dating back to their red-hot close to the regular season as well, were 20-5 last 25 games before that Game 5 loss. This is bounce back time and we expect Edmonton to improve to 9-0 last 9 times when off a loss.  Of course the Oilers are a huge money line favorite for a reason and, that being said, we see a lot of value with the puck line in this one. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Edmonton for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 7 - We liked the Celtics to come out of the East before the Playoffs started and will back them here in this Game 7 over Philly. Examining the last game, the Celtics won despite a horrible game by Tatum. Jaylen Brown wasn’t great either with 17 points and 7 rebounds. In this situation it’s hard to back a Philadelphia team that will need a great James Harden, who has a penchant for not showing up in big games, to be just that…great. Embiid is obviously one of the best players in the game, but it will be hard for him to carry this team to the finish line. Boston had the 3rd best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers at home this season. Philly was 1st in DEFF on the road but 10th in OEFF away from home. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season and we don’t see them losing a third home game in this series to the 76ers.

#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers have been slumping but they faced a tough slate while Royals actually have won 4 of 5 but the wins came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics.  The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season.  Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Brewers will break out of their slump tonight.  Burnes has been top notch this season ever since working out the kinks in his first two starts of the season.  Since that time, his ERA is 2.08 and he’s allowed just 20 hits in 30.1 innings of work while striking out 26!  The turnaround for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season!  Also, in his 2 starts vs Kansas City in his career, Burnes has pitched 12 innings, allowed 6 hits and struck out 18. We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Josh Taylor (6.55 ERA) but he could be more of an opener as he really has not been a starter much at any level in the minors nor at the MLB level.  That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Taylor.  Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Brewers lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 5.11 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB.  Remember we mentioned above that Kansas City's recent wins have come against weaker foes and that certainly is worth noting because  Kansas City is a horrible 6-23 against teams with a winning record this season.  Also, the Royals have lost 10 of last 14 road games and they were in action yesterday while the Brewers were resting courtesy of an off day yesterday.  23 of 27 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 70% of Milwaukee wins this season have been by a multi-run margin.  This game has home blowout written all over it.  We like the Brewers on the run line in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -5.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - We were grateful for the Knicks win in the last game of this series, but the facts of the matter are the Heat have clearly been the better team overall. The oddmakers have obviously seen what we’ve seen as they’ve bumped this line higher than the previous two games in Miami. The home team has won 4 straight with a 3-1 ATS record. Going back further the host has won 7 of the last nine meetings. The last four wins by the home team have all come by 6+ points. New York was good away from home all season long but it’s obvious the Heat have “flipped a switch” in the postseason and are playing at another level. Miami is 32-15 SU at home on the season and have won 5 straight home playoff games. Even when you factor in the play in loss to the Hawks at home the Heat have an average +/- at home in the PO’s of +9PPG. The Heat have covered 7 of the last ten meetings with the Knicks on this floor and are also on a 4-0 ATS streak when coming off a loss. Miami is the tougher team and they finish this series tonight with a double-digit win over the Knicks.

#30 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line (-1.5 goals +140) over  Florida Panthers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Maple Leafs are back in this thing.  That win at Florida in Game 4 was huge.  Yes, Toronto is down 3-1 in this series but sometimes all it takes is one.  Not only do the Leafs finally have a little momentum, they also have home ice on their side in this Game 5.  Yes it is still a tough situation that Toronto has put themselves in but they also know they only have to win one more game at Florida to win this series as long as they defend home ice.  That being said, defending home ice is exactly what we expect the Maple Leafs will do here.  4 of 5 Toronto home games in this post-season have been decided by a multi-goal margin.  The Maple Leafs are a big money line favorite for a reason here and you can also see why the odds suggest good probability that the winner of this game in Toronto will win it by 2 or more goals.  Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Toronto for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

#26 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Dallas Stars Puck Line (-1.5 goals +135) over Seattle Kraken, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - Dallas has won 6 of 9 games since a double-OT loss to open up this post-season. Not only that, the Stars 5 of 6 wins have been by at least a 2-goal margin. We feel they have swung momentum in this series with the 6-3 Game 4 win at Seattle and can now build on that at home and be even stronger here. They will not be denied and have won 3 of last 4 on home ice with the only loss in overtime and all 3 wins by at least a 2-goal margin. Each of Seattle's last four losses have come by a multi-goal margin. Look for this one to be as well. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Dallas for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

#22 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers Puck Line (-1.5 goals +130) over Vegas Golden Knights, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - The Golden Knights lost goalie Laurent Brossoit to injury in Game 3 of this series.  Vegas then brought in Adin Hill and he was great in relief but the Knights' skaters really came out flying in that game and something seemed amiss with the Oilers all night long even though they were on home ice.  That said, now a still-recovering Brossoit (he also had hip surgery recently) will be getting the start for Vegas or Hill will be making the first post-season start of his NHL career.  There is a big difference between coming on in relief in a game in which your team also gets a big lead for you versus getting the start.  Hill would be entering this game with a 0-0 score of course and having plenty of time to think about making his first-ever playoff start, etc.  That is a much different "animal" per se and we know Edmonton is going to bring it on home ice here after the embarrassing Game 3 loss.  We like the Oilers no matter who is in goal here as the Knights have the injured Brossoit, first P/O start Hill, or rusty Jonathan Quick as their choices here.  The Oilers, when off a loss, are a perfect 7-0 the last 7.  As for laying the 1.5 goals here, the Oilers win in this series was by a 5-1 final at Vegas and BOTH their home wins in this post-season (against the Kings) were by multi-goal margins - 10 to 5 aggregate on those two games.  The Oilers, dating back to their red-hot close to the regular season as well, were 19-4 last 23 games before that Game 3 loss. This is bounce back time and we expect Edmonton to improve to 8-0 last 8 times when off a loss.  Of course the Oilers are a huge money line favorite for a reason and, that being said, we see a lot of value with the puck line in this one. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Edmonton for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - We will go back to the well with the Knicks in this elimination Game 5. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, then in Game 4 the Heat pulled another stunning road upset of the Knicks by 8. The Knicks shot poorly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. In Game 4 the Knicks played well throughout most of the game until the 4th quarter when they shot just 33% for the quarter and gave up 7 offensive rebounds in the final stanza. New York was one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA at 46.6 boards per game but have been out rebounded by 11 in the last two games. We expect that to change in this do-or-die situation at home and will back the small home favorite. New York is 13-6-1 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of 3-7-points. Miami as a dog in this same price range is 6-9 ATS.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5 vs. Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The home team has won and covered all 4 meetings thus far in this series and we are betting that trend continues. In the first two games of this series the Nuggets dominated at home with an 18-point and 10-point win. The two games in Phoenix were relatively close and in the pivotal Game 3 the Suns won by 5-points despite shooting 57% overall and 45% from Deep. The Nuggets are 39-7 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of +10.2PPG. Phoenix is 19-26 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -0.9PPG. Denver was exceptional off a loss this season with a 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS record at home when coming off a defeat. The Nugs have covered 6 of their last seven at home and our computer simulator has them winning this game and getting a cover in the process.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks +4.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks have the right makeup to battle through adversity with a tough-minded defensive team and proven coach. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, but we like them to bounce back here. The Knicks shot uncharacteristically badly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. Miami was the benefactor of 31 free throw attempts to the Knicks 22 and the Heat made 28 of those attempts. Miami had an average +/- at home this season of just +1.2PPG which was 20th in the NBA. The Knicks average point differential on the road was 5th best in the league at +1.6PPG. This Knicks team found a way to win 2 road games in Cleveland in the 1st round and they’ll keep this game close to the final buzzer.

#901 ASA PLAY ON 8* Run Line: Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 6:35 PM ET - The Pirates have lost 7 straight games and we are going to fade them here.  We get line value with a reasonable price on the +1.5 runs on the run line as the Pirates have Mitch Keller on the mound.  This has impacted the pricing of this game and certainly Keller is a solid starting pitcher.  However, the key here is that the Rockies also have a strong starting pitcher on the mound with Kyle Freeland expected to get the ball here.  Additionally, Colorado has won back to back games and they exploded at the plate in yesterday's win.  Keller is 2-0 in home starts this season but he entered this season 3-17 in home starts in his career!  As for Freeland, because he pitches his home starts in hitter-friendly Coors Field, he tends to have inflated ERA numbers overall.  His road ERA numbers in recent seasons have been strong and this season he is pitching consistently well both home and away.  We are aware of his minor neck issue but he still was just fine versus the Brewers in most recent start.  He has been solid in 6 of his 7 starts this season and, ironically, the lone bad one was at home against these Pirates.  Big difference between facing them on the road rather than at home and we expect he will get revenge in this start.  The Rockies have won 6 of 7 games and the only loss was by a single run!  Pittsburgh has lost 7 straight games and also, only 5 of their last 15 home games have been wins by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Don't be surprised if the road team gets the upset over the home team that is mired in a slump but, if the Rockies do fall short, the run line should prove to be ample insurance. Bet the Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs on the run line.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -3 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - The Lakers stole Game 1 of this series with a win on the Warriors home court. Anthony Davis had a monster 30-point 23-rebound game in that road victory for L.A. In a must-win situation the Warriors pounded the Lakers by 27-points after hitting 48 of 95 field goal attempts (51%) and going 21 of 42 from beyond the Arc (50%). AD didn’t show up for the Lakers in Game 2 with 11-points and 7-rebounds. With this series shifting to Los Angeles, we like the Lakers in Game 3 and expect a regression from the Warriors and their insane Game 2 shooting. The Lakers defense was significantly better after the All-Star break as they allowed the 9th fewest points per game in the league. Much has been made in regard to the Warriors horrible road record this season of 13-32 SU away from home. During the regular season the Warriors had the 24th worst average road differential at minus -4.3PPG. To put that into perspective, it was barely better than Orlando or Charlotte. The Lakers were better than average at home during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and an average +/- of +3.2PPG. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five in L.A. versus the Warriors and four straight games overall when coming off a loss. We expect the Warriors road woes to continue and will support the Lakers in Game 3.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 vs. Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - We actually like this game and number more with Chris Paul out of the game for the Suns. Paul is obviously a great player, but this just opens the door for KD and Booker to take over the game offensively for the Suns. Phoenix was handled in Games 1 and 2 in Denver but bounce back at home off those two embarrassing losses. KD was especially bad in Game 2 when he shot 10 of 27 overall, just 2 of 12 from Deep. As a team the Suns shot just 40% overall and 19% from beyond the Arc. We are betting they return to form offensively at home where they shot 47% overall and 38.5% from the 3-point line. As we mentioned in our previous wager on the Nuggets, they are great defensively at home but not so much on the road. Denver allowed 1.178-points per possession on the road this season which was 22nd in the NBA. They allowed opponents to shoot 49.3% when away from home and average 115.2PPG. Denver had a negative road differential of -3.1PPG which was also the 22nd worst number in the league. Phoenix was 9th in the NBA with an average margin of victory at home of plus +4.9PPG. The Suns get it done with a huge effort in this do-or-die situation and win by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. LA Lakers, 9 PM ET - We had the Lakers in Game 1 but will now side with Golden State at home in Game 2 off that loss. This isn’t spread related but the home team that has lost Game 1 of the series has now won 15 straight times in Game 2 after the Celtics big win last night over Philly in this same scenario. The Warriors have been really good off a loss this season with a 18-3 SU home record, 14-7 ATS spread record. Golden State is 35-10 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +7.1PPG which is the 5th best average in the NBA. The Lakers are 22-23 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.0PPG. L.A. won Game 1 by 5-points but also benefited from 29 free throw attempts compared to just 6 for the Warriors. The Warriors are 3-point reliant so they typically don’t shoot as many free throws as their opponents but the disparity in Game 1 will likely be more even in Game 2. The Warriors have covered 4 of their last five when coming off a loss and are in full desperation mode here. The Lakers did lose 2 of 3 games in Memphis with the two losses coming by double-digits. Back the Warriors in this one.

#909 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a strong play for us regardless of the starting pitchers.  The Orioles have one of the top bullpens in MLB thus far with a 10-4 record and 2.99 ERA.  The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 3-5 record and 5.30 ERA.  Kansas City is an incredibly bad 2-13 in home games this season and just got one of those rare wins yesterday.  Now, Royals off a win and are 0-5 last 5 times they were off a win.  In fact, KC has had only one winning streak - and only a 2 game streak at that! - this season.  The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them.  This looks like a road rout as this one is a mismatch.  Note too that the Royals 23 losses this season have included 20 by at least a 2-run margin!  As for the pitching match-up here, Grayson Rodriguez has a 4.07 ERA this season and has not allowed any runs in 10 innings over his past two starts!  The Orioles hurler has 34 strikeouts in his 23 innings this season.  The Royals counter with Jordan Lyles and he is 0-5 with a 6.11 ERA.  In his last two appearances at home, Lyles has allowed a total of 8 earned runs plus 2 homers in each start.  Orioles enter this one with wins in 12 of 15 games.  Of 10 road wins (since winning their season opener by a single run) 9 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs.  This further adds to support for the run line here.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a very small price in the -105 money range with the Orioles.  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 2 - We like the Celtics to bounce back at home and get a big win to even this series at 1-1. James Harden turned back the clock in Game 1, scoring 45 points on 17 of 30 shooting. Harden has a long history of underperforming in the Playoffs and it’s unlikely he can repeat that performance. As a team the 76ers shot 51% overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. I’m betting the Celtics defense will adjust and run the Sixers off the 3-point line in G2. Boston was the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the NBA this season allowing just 1.115-points per possession. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season. Philly had some impressive road numbers but without Embiid they are not the same team. Boston is 19-9 SU off loss this season 10-5 SU at home. We like Boston big in this one.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors are off an emotional and physical 7-game series against the Kings which just finished on Sunday. Kerr relied heavily on his starters in that game with three (Curry, Wiggins and Green) all logging 37+ minutes. The Lakers have been off since Friday and will be well rested for this series opener. Los Angeles stole Game 1 from Memphis in the previous series and are more than capable of getting a W here. We will disregard the season statistics of the Lakers as they have been much better since the trade deadline, especially defensively. Since the All-Star Break the Lakers are allowing just 110.6PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. The Warriors are allowing an average of 113.7PPG which is 14th. The Warriors have been slightly better offensively since the ASB scoring 118.8PPG compared to 116.2PPG for L.A. The Warriors have great home numbers but given the circumstances of short rest versus the Laker 3-days rest we have to grab the points with the Underdog. The Lakers have won 3 of four meetings this season and 4 of the last six.

#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a top play for us regardless of the starting pitchers.  The Orioles have the #1 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 10-4 record and 2.86 ERA.  The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 3-5 record and 5.26 ERA.  Kansas City is an incredibly bad 1-12 in home games this season!  Baltimore is 12-3 in night games this season.  The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them.  This looks like a road rout as this one is a mismatch.  Note too that the Royals 22 losses this season have included 19 by at least a 2-run margin!  As for the pitching match-up here, Tyler Wells has a 2.79 ERA and a fantastic 0.72 WHIP!  The Orioles hurler has had great command of his pitches with 23 strikeouts against just 3 walks and opponents are hitting just .176 against him this season.  The Royals counter with Ryan Yarbrough but he had a 5.11 ERA two years ago.  Then he followed that up with a 3-8 mark and 4.50 ERA last season.  This season he is already a rough 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA!  In his last two appearances at home, Yarbrough has allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings.  Orioles enter this series with wins in 11 of 13 games.  Of 9 road wins (since winning their season opener by a single run) 8 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs.  This further adds to support for the run line here.  As for Kansas City, the Royals enter this series off a loss following a win.  What is interesting to note is the Royals have not had a standalone loss a single time this season.  Every loss leads to a losing streak.  KC has had losing streaks of 3 games 4 times, a 2 game losing streak, and a 7 game losing streak.  Look for this trend to continue here as the Royals 8-4 loss Sunday at Minnesota likely to be the start of yet another losing streak.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +110 money range with the Orioles.  Lay it! 

#964 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over San Francisco Giants, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Even if this starting pitching match-up changes we still like the Astros here.  They have home field edge and a huge bullpen edge.  The Giants bullpen ERA is the worst in the National League so far with a 6.15 ERA on the young season.  The Astros, on the other hand, are very near the best mark in the majors (2.86 ERA) as Houston's bullpen has compiled a 2.97 ERA so far this season.  Now, as far as the expected starters here, Ross Stripling has worked out of the bullpen and as a starter this season and has struggled in both roles! Stripling is winless with a 6.97 ERA thus far.  As for the Astros Luis Garcia, he had a tough start to the season but has since bounced back huge.  He has not allowed a single earned run in his last two starts plus given up just 5 hits in 13 innings over those two outings!  Garcia has struck out 23 in 18 innings over his last 3 starts!  The Giants are 4-9 on the road this season and 5-10 this season against teams with a winning record.  Houston is 6-3 in inter-league match-ups this season.  Astros have won 7 of last 10 games while San Francisco is coming off 3 straight losses including the last 2 in Mexico City.  The trip from Mexico City to Houston is not a long one but it is still a unique experience SF just had with the road trip scheduled there and this is a tough scheduling spot for them as a result.  Houston was already at home and has momentum after a win over the Phillies Sunday!  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Astros. Lay it!

#23 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Florida Panthers Puck Line (+1.5 goals -125) over Boston Bruins, Sunday at 6:38 PM ET - The Panthers have won the last two games in this series after staring a 3-1 series deficit square in the face. Florida has also won each of the last two games played at Boston so the Bruins home ice edge may not matter much here. In fact, prior to Florida's 7-5 home win in Game 6 to force this Game 7, the road team had won each of last 4 games in this series between these teams. We are not necessarily predicting the upset though here. We simply feel that this will be a very tight game because the Panthers have really turned the tide in this series. We still respect Boston at home but the Bruins are really feeling the pressure now and will likely win this game by just a 1-goal margin...if they even win the game at all. Either way, we love the value here with an underdog playing with much less pressure plus plenty of confidence after what they have accomplished in the last two games. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with road dog Florida is the play here.

#922 ASA PLAY ON 8* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-100) over Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - We like this run line play with action on the pitchers as the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in MLB thus far this season as their relievers are 3-5 with a 5.55 ERA! Kansas City had lost 9 straight games at Target Field before notching yesterday's win on a wild pitch. Minnesota had won 5 of 6 games before yesterday's loss. The Royals have won B2B games only once this entire season and their struggles are likely to quickly resume here. Minnesota is 7-2 in divisional games this season and here they are hosting a Royals team that got a rare win over them yesterday. The only team in all of MLB with a record that is worse than KC this season is Oakland. As for the starters here, Sonny Gray of the Twins is 3-0 with a 0.62 ERA in his 5 starts this season. He is holding opponents to a .192 BAA. The Royals Brady Singer has made 5 starts this season. The first one was good and the most recent one was good. However, in between those he allowed 5 or more earned runs in 3 straight starts! He has yet to produce B2B quality starts. 18 of 21 Royals losses have been by at least 2 runs. 13 of 16 Twins victories have been by at least 2 runs. You can see why we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs given those numbers. Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team at home and this match-up has dominance written all over it! We think we're getting some nice value at -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any price with the Twins. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

ASA NBA top play 10* on NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - We have waited patiently for the perfect opportunity to release a big play of this magnitude and today’s the day. The Miami Heat are coming off a stunning first round upset of the #1 seed Milwaukee Bucks. Jimmy Butler and head coach Erik Spoelstra carried the Heat to that series victory but now must face a very underrated Knicks team that is also coming off a big opening series win over the Cavaliers. Miami was one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the league this season, ranking 25th. Butler cannot sustain his round 1 numbers of 37.6PPG against a Knicks team that is allowing just 1.031-points per possession in the Playoffs. Butler and the Heat don’t have the benefit of facing the Bucks head coach Budenholzer who is incapable of making adjustments in series. Tom Thibodeau of the Knicks is one of the best defensive minds in the NBA and he will have a game plan in place to limit Butler and force someone else to beat them. Let’s not under appreciate the Knicks round 1 domination over a very good Cavs team. The Knicks held the Cavs to 94.2PPG and both home wins were by 9 and 20-points. Miami was 30th in the league in scoring this season, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Knicks offensively were much better, and they have a defense that was 13th in PPG allowed, 3rd in opponents FG% and 12th in 3PT%. The biggest advantage the Knicks will have in this game and the series is rebounding. The Knicks were 8th in defensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 25th. New York was 3rd in offensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 23rd. Cleveland had comparable rebounding numbers as the Heat and the Knicks outrebounded them by a total of 41 rebounds. In the regular season the Knicks won 3 of four with the Heat and have covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points!

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -3 vs Phoenix Suns, 8:30 PM ET - We are going to tread lightly with Game 1 of this series but do like the Nugget enough to make a small wager on them here. The Nuggets are 37-7 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Phoenix wasn’t a great road team this season with a 17-24 SU record in the regular season with a +/- of minus -0.7PPG. Granted, they didn’t have Kevin Durant for the majority of those games, but they still clearly underperformed away from home. Denver had the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at home at +1.205-points per possession. Overall, they weren’t a great defensive team, but when at home they were very good ranking 5th in DEFF allowing just 1.108PPP. Again, Phoenix was in the 12th and 13th in road OEFF and DEFF so good, but not elite. In the opener we like the home team minus the points.

ASA Top Play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:30 PM ET - We expect the Celtics to close this series out tonight in Atlanta. The Hawks won in Boston last time out and did it by shooting 47% overall and 46% from beyond the arc. Trae Young had a monster night with 38-points on 14 of 33 shooting. Boston has enjoyed a huge advantage with points in the paint this series and we full expect them to exploit that advantage again in this potential elimination game. The Celtics rank 4th in PPG scored, 14th in team FG%, 6th in 3PT% and 7th in rebounding. The Hawks have similar offensive numbers ranking 3rd in PPG, 9th in FG%, 21st in 3PT% and 10th in rebounding. The big separator comes defensively with the Celtics ranking 5th or better in PPG allowed, FG% D and 3PT% D. Atlanta allows the 26th most PPG, rank 25th in opponents FG% and 10th in 3PT%. Boston has done well when coming off a loss this season with a 18-9 SU overall record, 8-4 on the road. All 3 of the C’s wins in this series have come by 8 or more points. That trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - We like the home team to get a double-digit win in this critical Game 5. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home in the regular season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this regular season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams have met seven times this season with the home team winning six and all but one of those wins came by more than tonight’s spread. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis was up 7 points with just over 5 minutes to play in Game 4 and couldn’t close the game out. Memphis is 12-4 SU at home off a loss. Tonight, at home they will get it done.

#982 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET - The Royals snuck out a 5-4 win over Arizona yesterday but had lost 9 of 10 games before the rare win.  In those 9 losses Kansas City has scored an average of only 2.4 runs per game!  KC has lost 75% of its games this season and 15 of 18 Kansas City defeats have come by at least a 2 run margin this season.  We like this run line play with action on the pitchers as the Royals also have one of the worst bullpens in MLB thus far this season as their relievers are 2-5 with a 6.29 ERA!  Arizona's bullpen has not been great this season but they still rate a few ticks above the Royals for sure plus the Diamondbacks are the much better overall team and lineup and they are at home for this one. Arizona's relievers actually have a combined 8-3 record and hitters are just hitting .235 against them even though their ERA is a little high thus far this season. Diamondbacks pen the much better pen as you can see. Even with last night's rare win, KC has lost 9 of 11 games and their struggles are likely to continue here.  Arizona was 7-4 last 11 at home this season before the loss yesterday.  Arizona's last 11 wins have had 9 come by a margin of 2 or more runs and the Royals are 3-10 in day games this season.  Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team at home and this match-up has dominance written all over it!  As for those pichers, Ryan Yarbrough is struggling with command and has hit 6 batters in 4 innings in his last two outings and now makes a start as a bit of an opener here.  He may not last very long the way he has been throwing of late!  As for the Diamondbacks, Zac Gallen has been fantastic and after some choppiness in his first two starts, he has since dominated.  Gallen has not allowed an earned run and averaged 7 innings per start in his last 3 starts and has 29 strikeouts against 1 walk and only 7 hits in those 3 outings!  Complete dominance!  We think we're getting some nice value at -1.5 in this one and not having to lay too big a price with the Diamondbacks. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The winner of this series will be the team that is the healthiest. Right now, that team is the Bucks, even with Giannis questionable tonight. Our insiders suggest that he will play tonight, even if he doesn’t, we like Milwaukee. The Heat lost Tyler Herro to a broken hand and just lost Victor Oladipo to a knee injury. That doesn’t seem like a big injury, but it will have an impact on their depth at the guard position. Jimmy Butler also went down with a lower back injury, and we expect him to play tonight but he certainly won’t be 100%. Most importantly for this game is the fact that the Bucks are really good when coming off a loss with a 19-7 SU record and a +4.2PPG average MOV. The Bucks had the second-best road record in the NBA this season at 26-16 SU, +0.9PPG. Miami did have a solid home record of 27-14 SU during the regular season but their average +/- was just +1.2PPG. The Heat really struggled offensively against good teams as they averaged just 109.8PPG which was 28th in the league. Milwaukee is a much deeper team and will find a way to get this ‘must win’ on the road in Miami.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +7.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 3:30 PM ET - We were on the Warriors in Game 3 but will flip and side with the Kings in Game 4. This line is inflated and value currently sides with the Kings when you evaluate the lines from the first two games. Granted, Draymond Green is back but the move in the line is too drastic. Sacramento shot just 38% from the field in Game 3, 23% from Deep. Those numbers are uncharacteristically low for the Kings who were 1st in scoring this season 2nd in overall FG% shooting and 9th in 3PT%. After jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the series it was only natural for them to come back to Earth in Game 3. Now we have a solid number, a team that was 21-13 SU off a loss this season and had the 4th best average road differential at +2.1PPG. Sacramento was the better team all season long and have covered 11 of the last 14 meetings in Golden State. This will be closer than the oddsmakers think.

#952 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 12:05 PM ET - Raining in Philly this morning but it is supposed to move out of the area well before this very early game gets underway so we should be just fine in terms of getting this one in.  We like the Phillies here over the Rockies with action on the pitchers as the home field edge and better overall team gets it done against traditionally road-adverse Colorado.  However, we will mention that the expected starting pitchers are Jose Urena for the Rockies and Zack Wheeler for Philadelphia.  Taking a look at Wheeler, he struggled in his first start this season as well as his most recent start but those were both road starts.  In between these two starts he was at home and he was solid which comes as no surprise.  That's because Wheeler dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020.  As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of minimal hits allowed per innings pitched in starts in Philly.  The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a Rockies lineup here that is known for road struggles.  The Rockies were 27-54 in road games last season and 26-54 in road games the prior season!  On the year this season and last season, 75.5% of the Rockies losses were by at least 2 runs.  Phillies, including post-season, are on a hot run in home games including 25-11 last 36.  The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler over Urena (0-3, 9.82 ERA in 2023), the defending NL Champs over one of the worst road teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and laying a reasonable price in the -145 money range with the Phillies.  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - I think if you’ve followed us for any length of time you can guess how we feel about the Lakers and LeBron. If you haven’t, let’s just say we aren’t big fans. But that doesn't impact our handicapping and tonight we have to back the Lakers at home minus the short number. This series is tied 1-1 and Anthony Davis and LeBron haven’t even played that well. Back at home in Game 3 we expect big games from both of these Super Stars. Since the trade deadline the Lakers have been much better, especially defensively as they have allowed just 111.8PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. Over that same period of time, they have an average +/- of nearly +5PPG. Memphis has struggled on the road this season with a 16-25 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.7PPG. The Lakers don’t have a great home record of 24-18 SU but they do have a solid +/- of +3.3PPG. The home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings and we expect that trend to carry over here. Lay the points.

#916 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland A's, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to bounce back with big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one.  However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Andrew Heaney to start this one.  Heaney had a rough first start this season but is now building momentum with back to back solid outings and he is supported by a very strong bullpen.  As for Oakland, Shintaro Fujinami will be the likely starter for the A's here.  He is 0-3 with an 11.37 ERA this season and the Athletics bullpen has a 6.54 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors!  The Rangers bullpen has a 2.70 ERA and ranks a solid 3rd in the majors!  We expect the Rangers to bounce back from yesterday's tight loss and crush the ball at home in this one.  Oakland, before yesterday's upset win, had lost 7 straight and 13 of 14 games!  12 of the Athletics 16 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin.  The Rangers had won 8 of 10 before yesterday's loss and Oakland has been horrid for much of this season.  All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers dozen wins this season have had 11 of the 12 by a multi-run margin!  Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Rangers.  Lay it! 

#970 ASA PLAY ON 8* Los Angeles Angels -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 9:35 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as Royals going with a bullpen game in this one.  The Kansas City bullpen is dead last in MLB with the highest ERA this season so Los Angeles should have a big advantage on the mound here no matter who is pitching!  The Angels are expected to send Shohei Ohtani to start this one.  Ohtani is undefeated in his first 4 starts this season and he has been dominant ever since his rookie season in 2018.  Ohtani is sporting a 30-14 record in his career and he finished last season with an outstanding 2.33 ERA.  The Angels right-hander has been practically unhittable this season with just 6 hits allowed in 21 innings!  Taylor Clarke will be the likely starter for the Royals here but he is really just an opener.  He has a 6.75 ERA and the Royals bullpen has a 6.89 team ERA!  The Angels bullpen has a 3.27 ERA and ranks a solid 7th in the majors!  Clarke will likely work only an inning or two for KC and then Ryan Yarbrough is expected to get the bulk of the work here out of the bullpen.  He has a 9.00 ERA this season and we expect the Angels to crush the ball at home in this one.  Kansas City has lost 6 straight and 9 of last 10 games!  14 of the Royals 15 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin.  The Angels have not been great this season but KC has been horrid and all the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here.  Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one even at a price in the -135 money range with the Angels.  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - It’s well documented that Golden State is 11-32 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA, so while I’m surprised, they are down 0-2 I’m not shocked. The venue changes though and now the Warriors are at home where they had the 5th best average MOV at +8.0PPG with a 33-8 SU record. Consider this, the Warriors were 17th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.108PPP, but at home they rank 4th allowing 1.060PPP. Golden State was 9th overall in OEFF and had the 9th best overall OEFF at home but there was an improvement from 1.123PPP to 1.137PPP. Golden State has covered 4 of their last six games when coming off a loss and own a 17-3 SU home record when off a beat. These two teams have similar offensive statistics, but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. The Kings held an edge in FT’s at home 47-36 with +16 more attempts. That changes with the Warriors now the home team. Golden State has covered 37 of their last 51 home games against a team with a winning road record. Even without Draymond Green we like the Warriors by double-digits in this one.

#904 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - The Rockies have lost 8 straight games and are 2-7 away from home this season.  Annually Colorado tends to be so bad on the road.  This long-term trend has resumed this season and, entering this contest, the Rockies have lost 7 straight road games!  Colorado has averaged only 2 runs scored per game in last 6 road games.  Colorado has even been struggling at home as, overall, the Rockies have averaged only 3 runs scored per game in last 8 games - all losses - and 5 of those were home games!  The Phillies have now won 4 of 6 games and have averaged 8.5 runs scored per victory in those 4 wins.  7 of Philadelphia's 8 wins have been by at least a 3-run margin this season.  We like the run line for all the reasons above and are not overly concerned with the starting pitching match-up here.  We'll take action on the pitchers with this run line play but we will mention that Ryan Feltner is 4-12 with a 6.46 ERA in his career and struggling again this season.  The Phillies Matt Strahm, on the other hand, has a respectable 3.74 ERA in his career and has been particularly strong as a starter this season after enjoying some prior successful runs out of the bullpen for the Red Sox and Padres in past seasons.  The Phillies have been putting up some really solid offensive numbers on the board.  The way Colorado’s offense is playing, the Phillies may not need many runs to cover the -1.5.  Take Philadelphia on the run line tonight.

#62 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Edmonton Oilers Puck Line (-1.5 goals +125) over Los Angeles Kings, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - The Oilers had a 2-goal lead for the majority of game one. They were up 2-0 for much of the game. Then when the Kings cut the deficit to 1 in the 3rd period the Oilers seemingly restored order with their next goal making it a 2-goal lead again at 3-1. Inexplicably, up by 2 goals with 9 minutes to go in the game, not only did Edmonton fail to cover the puck line they did not even win the game. That one slipped away for the Oilers as Kings tied it late on a power play with about 15 seconds to go in regulation and then won it in OT - also on a power play goal. Suffice to say, the home team is out for revenge in a big way here. Edmonton has so much firepower, they will come out firing away in this game and it has the makings of a bloodbath for the road dog. Oilers will be relentless here. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Edmonton for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics, even without Ja Morant in the lineup and we like the home team to get a win in Game 2 and even the series. In Game 1 the Lakers got some huge contributions from Hachimura and Reaves who chipped in 29 and 23 points respectively. The Lakers shot unusually well at 53% overall and 43% from beyond the arc which are both well above their season averages. Not to mention, the Grizzlies had the #1 ranked FG% defense and 9th best 3PT% defense in the league this year. Expect a return to normal in Game 2. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis is 35-7 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at over +10PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers are 21-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times during the regular season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings with the Lakers at home. Grab the home team!

#58 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals +140) over Seattle Kraken, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - Every single game between these teams in the regular season was won by the road team as the visitors won all 3. Also, all 3 were decided by just a single goal. So why this play? It is because now the post-season has arrived and the cream rises to the top and we look for Avalanche and their post-season experience plus home ice edge to help lead the way to a big win here over a Seattle club in the post-season for the first time. The Kraken lost their final two games of the regular season each by a multi-goal margin. There were tight games in yesterday's first day of playoff action but the Kraken have had 11 straight games decided by a multi-goal margin and we like Colorado here. The Avalanche have won 8 of last 10 playoff games on home ice.  Home team in a blowout per our computer math model as the Avalanche carry their post-season confidence and dominance from last year right into the post-season. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Colorado for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -7.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Clippers played as well as they could in the opener and stole Game 1 in Phoenix. Tonight, we are betting the Suns will bounce back with a double-digit home win. Statistically the game was very even with the exception being offensive rebounding. The Clippers grabbed 15 O-Boards compared to just 6 for the Suns. These two teams were similar offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings this season with the Suns 14th and the Clippers 16th. In defensive efficiency the Suns ranked much better in defensive efficiency at 7th compared to the Clippers at 17th. The Suns got off to a slow start in G1 but expect a different mindset to open Game 2. Phoenix had the 7th best 3PT% numbers in the league this season without Kevin Durant playing many games for them and they should exploit a Clippers defense that was 19th in opponents 3PT% defense. Lay it with Phoenix.

ASA top play on Golden State Warriors -1 @ Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - We are not neglecting the fact Golden State was 11-31 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA. It looked to us like the Warriors went into Game 1 of this series with the mentality of just showing up would be good enough to win the game. The Kings on the other hand played at an incredible level throughout the game and were inspired by the energy from their home crowd. DeAaron Fox had a monster game for the Kings with 38-points and 5-assists. Malik Monk chipped in with 32 and went 14 of 14 from the free throw line. As a team the Kings shot 45% overall, 38% from 3 and made 26 of 32 FT’s. Despite playing at a high level the Warriors still had several great looks late in the game that could have sent it to OT. A Championship team like the Warriors will respond after that loss. Golden State has covered 4 of their last five games when coming off an “L”. These two teams have similar offensive statistics but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. We mentioned the Warriors poor regular season road number but also note the Kings are 4-7 SU with a negative +/- of -5.3PPG as a home underdog. Elite teams bounce back off a loss! Back the Warriors.

#44 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals +125) over Florida Panthers, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - The Panthers Alex Lyon got hot in goal late in the season while Sergei Bobrovsky was recovering from injury.  However, he then allowed 4 goals in the season finale versus the Hurricanes.  If he plays here that will have shaken his confidence.  The more likely scenario though is that Bobrovsky is in goal and he will be rusty after the time away due to injury.  That said, the home team is the play here.  The Bruins were so dominant in the regular season plus they are at home here and they will have the goalie edge no matter who is in goal.  Of course all of these factors are the reason that Boston is a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line here. The value with this one is on the puck line where you can get a plus money return by laying the 1.5 goals with the Bruins.  The home team won all 4 meetings between these teams in the regular season and each of the first three were decided by a multi-goal margin.  Bruins have won 15 of 16 games and the Panthers have lost B2B games entering this one.  Home team in a blowout per our computer math model as the Bruins carry their regular season dominance right into the post-season. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Boston for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.

#965 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Kansas City Royals, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - Texas should have a big advantage on the mound here as they are expected to send Jacob deGrom to start this one. He had a tough first start despite 7 strikeouts and no walks but has settled in nicely in his last two starts as deGrom has 27 strikeouts against just 2 walks in his 16 and 2/3 innings this season. In his two April starts deGrom has allowed only 3 earned runs on just 9 hits in 13 innings of work. His strikeout to walk ratio is fantastic this season. Jordan Lyles will be the likely starter for the Royals here and his struggles have continued with a rough start to this season after another unimpressive season last year. He is now 66-92 in his career with a 5.10 ERA! Lyles is in trouble here against a solid Rangers team and facing them as a member of a Royals team that is again looking like one of the worst teams in the league. He have given up 9 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts and that included facing the Rangers in his most recent start. The most recent start for deGrom was against these Royals as well and he dominated in that one. That game Tuesday, in fact, featured these two starters and took 10 innings for Texas to emerge victorious but the Rangers blew a late 2-run lead in that game. The Royals lost again to the Braves yesterday and are now 1-9 in home games and 2-11 against teams with a winning record this season. The Rangers are 7-2 this season against teams with a losing record and Texas has been involved in only one 1-run game out of 15 games this season. The Royals have only had one 1-run loss in their 12 defeats this season. That being said, you can see why we are expecting a road rout decided by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a very fair price - opened up in the -120 range with the Rangers. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. LA Lakers, 3 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics and we like the home team to get a double-digit win in the opener. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times this season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 8 meetings with the Lakers at home. Lay the points!

#923 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Washington Nationals, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - Cleveland should have a big advantage on the mound here as they are expected to send Shane Bieber to start this one.  Bieber is undefeated in his first 3 starts this season and he has been dominant ever since his rookie season in 2018.  Even including that rookie year, Bieber is sporting a 55-26 record in his career and he finished last season with an outstanding 2.88 ERA.  Patrick Corbin will be the likely starter for the Nationals here and his struggles have continued with a very rough start to this season after another ugly year last season.  He is now 18-44 since the start of the 2020 season.  Just like 2022, unfortunately for Corbin, he has picked up right where he left off when he led the National League in 3 categories last season that no pitcher wants to lead in!  Corbin had 19 losses and allowed 107 earned runs and gave up 210 hits in 2022!  He is in trouble here against a solid Guardians team and facing them as a member of a Nationals team that is one of the worst teams in the league.  Corbin was one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball last season and he has been getting rocked this season as well.  Also, Washington is 1-7 in day games and 1-7 against right-handed starters and 1-7 in inter-league action - all of those stats are year to date so far this season.  The Guardians are 4-2 in day games this season and we look for them to complete the sweep here as they are already a superb 7-2 in road games this season.  Looking for a road rout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one even at a price in the -135 money range with the Guardians.  Lay it!  

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings Pick'em vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - This is one of those fishy lines the oddsmakers will set to bait you into betting the media team such as the Warriors. Who isn’t betting the Warriors as a pick’em against the downtrodden Kings? The facts of the matter are this. The Kings have been the better team all season long and everyone has been waiting for the Warriors to ‘flip the switch’ and be great this season but it hasn’t happened. Golden State was 11-30 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA which was barely better than Orlando. Sacramento was 23-18 SU at home on the season with a +3.2PPG MOV. Both teams are good offensively with the Kings holding the #1 rated offensive efficiency numbers at 1.195PPP while the Warriors were 8th. Golden State held the season long advantage in defensive efficiency but they still ranked 18th compared to the Kings at 25th. The Kings may not win the series but we expect them to open up with a win in Game 1.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +6 over Miami Heat, 7 PM ET - I have had a hard time trusting Miami all season long and I’m certainly not going to back them here. Its not a coincidence that after any extended period of time teams with Jimmy Butler eventually regress which is the current state in Miami. This Heat team had a net point differential of -0.3PPG on the season which was 21st in the league. Miami was 27-14 SU at home but their +/- on their home court was +1.2PPG which was 20th and only better than the Wolves of all the playoff teams. In comparison the Bulls had a average margin of victory of +1.3PPG overall which was 13th best in the league. On the road the Bulls +/- was -0.3PPG which was 7th best in the NBA. Chicago has won all three meetings this season and all 3 wins have come by 8+ points. Grab the points with Chicago and expect another game to the wire.

#954 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Louis Cardinals -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - Take action here as we grab the much better team at home and ready for a home blowout win regardless of the starters.  The Pirates are expected to start Vince Velasquez.  He struggled to find the plate in spring training and he has more walks than strikeouts so far this season.  This will be his 3rd start of the young season and he rolled his left ankle so he is not quite 100% and this will not help him today either.  That said, Cardinals bats should roll here and their expected starter is Jared Montgomery.  While Velasquez has a 9.82 ERA so far this season, Montgomery has a 2.25 ERA in his first two starts and is coming off a dominating effort over the Brewers in his most recent start.  He is 16-6 in night starts since the start of the 2021 season and Pittsburgh's 5 losses this season have all been by at least 2 runs and 4 of the 5 by at least 4 runs.  In fact, the average margin of defeat in Pittsburgh losses has been 5 runs.  The Pirates were shutout yesterday and have been held to 2 or less runs scored in 3 of last 4 games.  The Cardinals have played a tough schedule but are off B2B wins and are starting to turn the corner after facing tough competition to begin their season.  All 5 Cardinals wins this season have been by at least a 3 run margin.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and only having to lay a small price in the -120 range with the Cardinals. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to grab the points with the Bulls in this match up and an outright win would not surprise us. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers on the season with the Raptors slightly better offensively, but the Bulls have an edge defensively. When it comes to home/road numbers we like the fact that the Bulls had the 7th best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at -0.3PPG. Toronto was 27-14 SU at home on the season but their average point differential was +4.7PPG which won’t get a cover for them here. After the All-Star break the Bulls have allowed just 107.9PPG which is the best number in the league. Chicago has also averaged 113.2PPG since the break which is significantly better than the 111.7PPG the Raptors have averaged. The Bulls have shot 50% since the ASB, Toronto has shot .464%. That ties in nicely with the Bulls having an advantage offensively with the 4th best overall shooting offense in the league going up against a Raptors D that is 27th in FG% defense. This is a great chance to back a defensive dog and a little moneyline action might be worth a shot in this one.

#2 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* New York Islanders Puck Line (-1.5 goals -130) over Montreal Canadiens, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - Short write-up here.  The Islanders win this game and they are going to the post-season.  If they fail to win this game it opens the door for the Penguins as this is the season finale for New York and Pittsburgh also has just one game remaining and these clubs are separated by only 1 point in the standings!  The Islanders control their own destiny and here they are hosting a Canadiens club that would like to play the role of spoiler but it is no accident that Montreal finished at the bottom of the Atlantic Division standings.  The Habs have lost 5 of 6 and each of last 4 losses have been by a multi-goal margin.  The Islanders are off a loss at Washington but had won 7 of 11 games heading into that one and 6 of the 7 victories were by a multi-goal margin.  This sets up well to be another blowout victory as the Islanders punch their ticket to the post-season. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite New York is the play here.

#908 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 4:05 PM ET - As we mentioned Friday in the most recent start for Zach Wheeler, he had struggled in his first start this season but it was on the road. Sure enough, Wheeler bounced back at home Friday with a respectable start and he truly dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of hits per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a mediocre (at best) Marlins lineup here. The Marlins got the 8-4 win over the Phillies yesterday but were 35-46 in road games last season. This season all 7 of the Marlins losses have been by at least 2 runs and actually Miami's average margin of defeat is 6 runs per loss which shows how bad their bullpen can fall apart in games. In this case that bullpen could be called upon early too because Edward Cabrera just can not find the plate this season. Sometimes starters will have a one-off game where they just can not throw strikes but something is not right with Cabrera. He walked 6 batters in his first start and 7 batters in his second start and this was in an average of only 3 and 1/3 innings per start! Phillies, including post-season, are on a 56-38 run in home games including 23-9 last 32. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler over Cabrera, the defending NL Champs over one of the weaker teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here as the Phillies are already a perfect 2-0 this season when at home off a loss and they won those two games by a combined score of 20 to 5. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Phillies. Lay it!

#970 ASA PLAY ON 8* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:07 PM ET - The Tigers have lost 7 of 9 games this season.  In those 7 losses Detroit has scored an average of only 2 runs per game!  All 7 defeats were by at least a 3 run margin.  Detroit just does not have the lineup to keep up with the high-powered Jays here.  That is why we like this run line play with action on the pitchers but we will mention that the projected pitching match-up of Alek Manoah versus Matt Manning certainly does give the Blue Jays a starting pitching edge here. The Tigers have given up 7 runs per game so they have some bullpen issues too as you can see with that number.  The big problem here for Detroit is an inability to score enough to keep up with the high-powered Jays.  Toronto has won 5 of 6 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during that stretch and now this is their home opener.  They should tee off on Manning as he was 1-4 with 6.63 ERA on the road in 2021 and had a 4.94 ERA in his 2022 road starts.  This is his first road start this season while Manoah will be happy to be at home where he is 12-4 with a 2.39 ERA in his first two seasons.  He also is coming off a start on the road last week in which he allowed 0 runs and just 1 hit in 7 innings.  Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team in their home opener and this match-up has dominance written all over it!  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one laying a moderate, but not huge, price with the Blue Jays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#54 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Arizona Coyotes Puck Line (+1.5 goals -120) over Seattle Kraken, Monday at 10:05 PM ET - The Coyotes are 21-14-4 in home games this season.  Some of those 14 regulation losses have come by just one goal too.  That being said, this is excellent line value here with +1.5 goals at a fair price in the -120 range.  Arizona is a scrappy home dog that should play hard here and Seattle could let up here after clinching a post-season spot.  The Kraken have been hot lately but most of those wins at home.  On the road their most recent win was a big one but this was preceded by just 1 win by a multi-goal margin in the last 6 games on the road.  The Coyotes will be tough to dominate here as only 2 of last 12 home games for Arizona have been a loss by a multi-goal margin.  Grabbing the 1.5 goals with home dog Arizona is the play here.

ASA NBA Top Play 10* New Orleans +3.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This game has meaning for both clubs and we like the advantage the Pelicans have in the schedule and how they are playing overall at this time. Minnesota is coming off a game yesterday and even though they have winning record at 8-5 SU when playing without rest, their average margin of victory in those games is 1-point, which is not enough for a cover here. New Orleans is on a solid 9-2 SU streak with several impressive wins on that resume including New York, Memphis, the Clippers twice and Denver. The Pelicans have won 4 of their last five road games. These two teams have some similar statistics offensively, but defensively the Pelicans hold the advantage and that will be the difference in today’s game. The Wolves +/- at home this season was 22nd in the league at +0.8PPG. The Pelicans had the 10th best road differential at 1.1PPG. This visiting team has covered 7 of the last eight meetings in this series and 8 of the last ten. Grab the points and the Pels.

#918 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland A's, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Tampa Bay won 9-5 yesterday. The Rays are now 7-0 on the season while the A's dropped to 2-5 on the season. Only 1 of Oakland's 5 losses has come by a one-run margin and all 7 of Tampa Bay's wins have been by a multi-goal margin. That said, the odds favor any Tampa Bay win coming by a multi-run margin. So how about the likelihood of a TB win? Well, it certainly is not a mistake that they are favored by nearly a -300 price on the money line in this one. This Rays team has been dominating. Tampa Bay is scoring about 7 and 1/2 runs per game and allowing only 2 and 1/2 runs per game. The A's, on the other hand, are allowing 7 runs per game and scoring 4 runs per game. Our computer math model is showing a high probability of multi-run win for the hosts here. Yesterday the Rays hit 5 homers and also flashed stellar defense in the field. All facets of the game are going well for the Rays right now. TB should pound Shintaro Fujinami. He was rocked in his MLB debut for the A's and gave up 8 earned runs in 2 and 1/3 innings and that was at home. Now he is on the road and facing the hottest team in MLB. Jeffrey Springs gets the start for the Rays here and we will mention that we like this play no matter who the starting pitchers are but Springs was absolutely dominant in his first start this season. Springs went 6 scoreless and hitless innings and allowed just 1 walk and struck out 12 batters. He is 14-6 the past two seasons and had a dominant 2.46 ERA last season. This match-up has dominance written all over it again and we think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one laying a moderate, but not huge, price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost but will come right back with a play against them again here. This will be the Kings 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days. Last night they unexpectedly played hard against the Pelicans but reports are that head coach Mike Brown came down on them hard after a loss in their previous game. Now that he made his point, and they have nothing to play for, don’t expect them to put forth a max-effort here. Dallas is in desperation mode after 3 straight losses to playoff teams from the East. The Mavs are currently in a battle with the Thunder for the 10th and final play-in spot in the West with just 3 games remaining. These two teams have met twice already this season splitting both games played in Sac-Town. Luka and Kyrie are both expected to play on Wednesday night, and even though they haven’t meshed on the court at the same time they are still two dynamic players that can carry their team in this do-or-die situation.

#969 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 1:05 PM ET - As mentioned here in our play on Tampa Bay run line in their 10-6 win over the Nationals, the fact is that the Rays are the overall better team and are perfect on the season and the Nationals have just one win on the season. Washington, entering yesterday's action, was tied with the lowly Marlins for least runs scored (9) on the season. Though they finally scored well yesterday, the Nationals also gave up a pile of runs and, once again, Washington just will not be able to keep up here. The Rays are 5-0 and with their wins by an average score of 7 to 2. That is domination. Speaking of domination, the Nationals have been on the wrong end of it. Washington has 4 losses and by an average score of 7.5 to 2.8. Neither team has been involved in a game decided by less than 3 runs so far. We look for continued domination from the red hot Rays here and they get the win and improve to 6-0 on the season. Better bullpen, better lineup, and better overall team. As for the projected starters here, Corbin is off a nightmare season last year and then began this season with a horrific start versus Braves in which he allowed 7 hits and walked 3 in just 3 innings. The Rays are expected to start McClanahan here and he had a dominating first start of the season versus Detroit and he is coming off a stellar season for Tampa Bay. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one laying a moderate, but not huge, price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - This game has huge implications for the Pelicans who are in a battle for the 7th seed in the West, while the Kings sit comfortably in 3rd. Granted the Kings mathematically have a shot to catch Memphis for the 2nd seed, but they can’t get caught by Phoenix and the 3 seed may be a better option in the West. The Pelicans on the other hand would host as a 7 seed and would have a clear advantage come playoff time. That’s not the only reason we like New Orleans here as they are playing well right now having won 7 of their last 8 games. That stretch of success includes three quality wins over the Clippers (twice) and Nuggets. The Pelicans suffered through several key injuries this season but are now mostly healthy and playing at the level everyone predicted they could play at. Since the All-Star break the Pel are allowing the least amount of points in the NBA at 108.3PPG and have a +/- of +4PPG. The Kings have been a great story all season, but their lack of defense will be their demise in the playoffs. The Kings rank 23rd for the season in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.167PPP. Since the All-Star break Sacramento is giving up 120.3PPG which is the 25th most in the NBA. Even with significant injuries the Pelicans still hold the 8th best average net point differential at home this season at +5.5PPG with a 25-13 SU record. The home teams has won 4 of the last five meetings and we are betting that trend continues here.

#925 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - ACTION on pitchers is a key here as the Rays currently have Josh Fleming listed as a starter but he is really more of a long reliever and Tampa Bay could use a different pitcher as an opener.  Overall, this is likely to be more of a bullpen game for the Rays.  The Nationals are expected to start Chad Kuhl here and he went 6-11 with a 5.72 ERA with the Rockies last season.  The key to this match-up though has nothing to do with the pitchers.  The fact is that the Rays are the overall better team and are 4-0 on the season and the Nationals are 1-3 on the season and tied with the lowly Marlins for least runs scored (9) on the season.  Washington just will not be able to keep up here.  The Rays are 4-0 and with their wins by an average score of 7 to 1.  That is domination.  Speaking of domination, the Nationals have been on the wrong end of it.  Washington has 3 losses and by an average score of 7 to 2.  Neither team has been involved in a game decided by less than 3 runs so far.  We look for continued domination from the red hot Rays here and they get the win and improve to 5-0 on the season.  Better bullpen, better lineup, and better overall team.  There have not been a lot of one-run games (24.6%) so far this season and the money line is a little too heavy on this one for our liking so we'll turn to the run line and take advantage of a pick'em price in what should be a Tampa Bay blowout.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any big price with the Rays.  Lay the 1.5 runs here!  

#976 ASA PLAY ON 8* New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Phillies are 0-3 to start the season and off a 1-run loss down in Texas last night.  The first two defeats this season were blowout losses and this is tough spot for Philly as they had the Sunday night game down in Texas yesterday and then had to travel back to the Northeast for this one and lose an hour on the clock in the process.  The Phillies are a shell of last year's team right now with Bryce Harper still out and Rhys Hoskins lost for the season.  Those are two very big bats and the Phillies have scored just 4 runs total the last two games and now face a tough Yankees southpaw.  They have very little experience with facing Nestor Cortes and what little they have has not been good.  Conversely, the Yankees are quite familiar with Phillies starter Taijuan Walker.  That's because he is a former Met and would face them annually in the Subway Series.  They have a number of hitters that have pounded him and also he has been taken deep often in his starts versus the Yankees.  Our computer math models project Walker gets hit hard and Cortes throws a gem.  No matter the pitchers here, we like the powerful and healthier Yankees over a Phillies team struggling out of the gate.  No team has a worse run differential than the Phillies -18 and also Philadelphia's 29 runs allowed is the worst mark in the majors and, keep in mind, 10 teams have already played 4 games this season and yet Phillies runs allowed worst of anyone in baseball.  There have not been a lot of one-run games (22%) so far this season and the money line is a little too heavy on this one for our liking so we'll turn to the run line and look to cash some plus money on a New York blowout.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +125 money range with the Yankees.  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - There is one negative with this bet and that’s the fact the Bucks are coming off a humiliating loss at home to the Celtics and we typically shy away from this type of situation. We will make an exception here as we get a live dog in Philly that is every bit as good as Milwaukee and can certainly come out of the East. Milwaukee has a 30-8 SU home record this season but the 76ers are 23-15 SU away. The Sixers own the best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at +3.8PPG. They have the best offensive efficiency rating on the road and 11th best DEFF. Milwaukee has an average +/- at home of +6.8PPG but that should be higher based on their SU record. We like the fact that the Bucks have struggled recently with the good teams they’ve played with a 1-8 ATS record their last nine games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage. When facing one of the top 8 teams in the Eastern Conference the Bucks have a +0.4PPG differential, the 76ers are better at +1.8PPG. 4 of the last five meetings have been decided by 3-points or less, all five have been decided by 8-points or less. We expect another close game and will grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 @ Denver Nuggets, 10 PM - We will try our hand with the Pelicans again tonight as a big dog in Denver. The Pelicans had won 5 straight games before blowing a game in Golden State on Tuesday. New Orleans led by 20-points in that game before succumbing to the Warriors in an 11-point loss. The Nuggets have won 4 straight and are coming off a big win over the 76ers on Tuesday night. Denver has a 3-game lead over the Grizzlies for the top spot in the West so they don’t have the sense of urgency the Pelicans have who sit 8th. Denver has one of the best offenses in the NBA but are average in terms of defensive efficiency. The Pels on the other hand have been very good defensively allowing 1.124-points per possession which rank 5th best in the league. These two teams met in late January with the Nuggets winning two tight games by 1-point and by 9-points. Brandon Ingram for the Pels did not play in either of those games which makes a big difference here. Grab the points.

#665 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -1.5 over North Texas, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Both being from Conference USA, these 2 met 3 times this season with UNT winning 2 of those games. However, one of those wins for the Mean Green came without UAB’s top player Jordan Walker, in the lineup. Walker is the key for UAB as he leads the team in scoring at 22 PPG while averaging over 4 assists per game. In their other 2 games vs UNT with Walker in the lineup, UAB lost in double OT on the road by 3 points despite making only 3 FT’s with the Mean Green making 23 freebies. The other meeting was in the CUSA tourney and UAB dominated more than their 76-69 win would indicate. UAB led by 20 in that game (UNT never led) and the Blazers were ahead by double digits for 18 of the 20 minutes in the 2nd half. That was the most recent meeting only a few weeks ago on March 10th. While North Texas has a top notch defense (18th in efficiency) the UAB offense has seemed to figure out how to attack them. In the 3 games vs UNT, the Blazers shot a combined 45.2% vs a team that allowed 39% on the season. The Mean Green shot just 41% combined in those 3 games. In the last 2 meetings with Walker on the court, UAB averaged 1.13 and 1.11 PPP vs a team that has allowed 0.94 PPP this year. In their NIT semi final games, North Texas never led vs Wisconsin until 2 minutes remaining in the game. They won by just 2 points despite the fact the Badgers didn’t score a single point in the final 9 minutes of the game. The Blazers beat a very solid Utah Valley team in OT but they led for much of the game while UVU’s largest lead was 2 points. Since Walker returned from injury, the Blazers are 14-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and this North Texas team in OT. UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. UNT is not at 100% with starting center Ousmane not in Las Vegas due to a personal situation. While his back up Sissko has played well, Ousmane will be missed here as he had solid games in the 3 meetings vs UAB with 34 points and 17 rebounds combined in those games. At full strength we have UAB as the better team and we’ll lay the small number in the NIT Championship Game.

#961 ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 1:05 PM ET - Atlanta dominated this series during the regular season last year including winning 14 of the 19 meetings and 10 of the 14 wins Braves had over the Nationals came by at least 2 runs. In their 19 meetings last season, the Braves had a +49 run differential which equates to +2.6 runs per game and that includes their 5 losses. Pretty dominant to say the least. Atlanta should have a big advantage on the mound here as they are expected to send Fried to start their season opener. Fried is 4-0 in his last 4 decisions vs Washington and is sporting a 52-20 record in the past 4 seasons combined and he finished last season with an outstanding 2.48 ERA. Corbin will be the likely starter for the Nationals here and he led the National League in 3 categories last season that no pitcher wants to lead in! Corbin had 19 losses and allowed 107 earned runs and gave up 210 hits! He is in trouble here against one of the best teams in the league and facing them as a member of a Nationals team that is one of the worst teams in the league. Corbin was poor against the Braves last year as well with a 9.42 ERA and OBA of .391 as Braves hit nearly .400 against hime! He faced Atlanta 4 times last season and was rocked for 15 ER’s in just 14 innings of work. The visitor has the better bullpen and, entering a new season, they of course have all the key arms available for this one other than injured closer Raul Iglesias. However, his short-term absence for Atlanta is mitigated by the fact they have such depth - including in the bullpen - and can lean heavily on guys like AJ Minter, Joe Jimenez and Collin McHugh. They are rested and ready and we're getting this Braves team with a top starter on the mound vs a Nationals team with a guy that would be a 4th starter on most teams and not an opening day guy. Corbin was one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball last season. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one even at a price in the -140 money range with the Braves. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Knicks AND fade the Heat. Miami is coming off a big game last night in Toronto and now face a rested Knicks team in New York. Not to mention these same two rivals just met in South Beach last week with the Heat winning 127-120 as a +2-point dog. The Knicks may be without Jalen Brunson, but the Heat are without Jimmy Butler. The Knicks rate advantages both offensively and defensively over the Heat, especially on the offensive end of the court. Miami is 30th in scoring, 26th in shooting and 27th in 3PT%. In comparison the Knicks are 14th in scoring, 3rd in team FG% and 9th in 3PT%. New York has a +4.3PPG average differential at home, the Heat have a negative -2.4PPG differential away from home. In this quick rematch we like the home team by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - We have had a tough time figuring this Pelicans team out at times this season but today is a perfect opportunity to back them as a sizable dog. New Orleans has quietly gone on a 5-game winning streak and have 7 W’s in their last 10 games. They recently beat the Clippers in LA as a +5-point dog. The Pelicans are 13-24 SU on the road this season but their average point differential away from home is a respectable minus -2.4PPG. Golden State is clearly one of the best home teams in the NBA at 30-8 SU with a +7.6PPG differential, but that number is down from last year’s number of +9.9PPG. The last time these teams met in early March, the Warriors were favored by -5-points and won by 9. Golden State has slipped defensively this season as they allow 117.7PPG which ranks them 23rd. The Pelicans defense gives up 112.7PPG which ranks them 12th. This is an inflated pointspread and the value clearly lies with the underdog Pelicans.

#664 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -2.5 over Utah Valley State, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. They were without their best player, Jordan Walker, for 5 games in mid January and since he returned the Blazers are 13-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and North Texas in OT (in the NIT Final 4). They were FAVORED by 2 points in their loss in the CUSA Championship game vs FAU and now laying basically the same number vs Utah Valley State. Since February 1st, which coincides with Walker’s return from injury, UAB ranks as the 23rd most efficient team in college basketball ranking in the top 35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are coming off a very impressive 8 point road win @ Vanderbilt who was on a huge roll winning 12 of their previous 14 games including wins over Kentucky (twice), Tennessee, Auburn, and Michigan during that stretch. The Blazers won that game on the road by a solid margin despite taking 11 fewer shot attempts and making only 2 of 15 (13%) from beyond the arc. UAB was tested in what was a much better conference than most anticipated. Conference USA has a team in the Final 4 (FAU), 2 teams in the NIT Final 4 (UNT & UAB) and Charlotte won the CBI tournament. UVU was the top team in the WAC this season along with Sam Houston State. Those were the only 2 teams ranked inside the top 100 per KenPom and they finished just 1 game apart in league play with UVU winning the conference. Interestingly, Sam Houston State was also in the NIT and played UNT from Conference USA and got destroyed by 20 points. Just something to make note of as we rate North Texas and UAB very close overall. Utah Valley made it to Vegas by topping Cincinnati 74-68 at home. The Wolverines had a huge edge at the line in that game attempting 19 more FT’s than the Bearcats. These 2 have very comparable, solid defenses, but UAB is more efficient offensively (1.12 PPP to 1.08 PPP) and they’ll have the best player on the floor in Walker. The Blazers should get plenty of extra opportunities as they are a great offensive rebounding team (8th nationally) facing a UVU team that ranks outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding. UAB also creates turnovers at a high rate (19%) while the Wolverines turn the ball over a lot (19%). We like UAB to cover this short number on Tuesday.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic -2 vs Brooklyn Nets, 6:10 PM ET - The Orlando Magic catch the Nets in a favorable scheduling situation as Brooklyn is playing the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile the Magic have been off since the 23rd. Orlando likes to play fast and will dictate tempo here as the rested home team. The Magic are averaging 100.1 possessions per game over their last five games which is 6th fastest in the NBA. Brooklyn has faced a gauntlet of playoff caliber teams in Miami, the Cavaliers twice, Denver and Sacramento so the mental and physical fatigue will catch up to them here. Orlando clearly hasn’t quit on the season as they’ve won 3 of their last four games and also played the Suns and Lakers well in 6-point and 3-point road losses. Orlando has covered 5 straight games overall.

ASA top play on: Texas -4 vs. Xavier, 9:45 PM ET - Texas is a team very capable of winning it all this year, Xavier is not. The Longhorns come from the best conference in the country and have played the 7th toughest schedule this season. Despite playing their brutal schedule the Horns rank 15th in offensive efficiency at 1.164-points per possession. Defensively they rank 10th allowing just .917PPP. They are top 56 in both offensive and defensive EFG%. Texas is 16-6 SU their last 22 games and the six losses came on the road in a hostile Big 12 environment. Xavier has a pair of unimpressive wins to get here as they beat Kennesaw State and a play in team in Pittsburgh. The Musketeers have the 7th most efficient offense in college hoops and are 62nd defensively. Our metrics tell us their strength of schedule isn’t as good some experts may suggest. They have some early season losses to Indiana, Duke and Gonzaga. As we mentioned, Xavier has solid defensive efficiency numbers but they did allow 74.5PPG on the season which ranked them 305th. Texas had a +10.6 average scoring differential which was 11th in the nation. We predict a double-digit win here.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +11.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:10 PM ET - These teams have met twice this season and it’s evident the Pacers match up well with the Celtics. Indiana won here in late December as a +9.5-point underdog and then took the C’s to overtime and lost by 4-points in late February. The current injury report says Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton should be ready to go against Boston Friday night. Indiana has 3 quality road wins on their resume in their last ten games as they won at Chicago, in Milwaukee and at Toronto. The Pacers have a 9-3 ATS record when tabbed a dog of +7.5 or more points. Boston is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA, but they are coming off a long 6-game West Coast Road trip and have lost 2 of their last three at home. Boston’s average home differential is impressive at +9PPG but that’s not enough to get a cover here. Indiana is the desperate team here fighting for the 10th spot and play in game in the East. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 10:30 PM ET - Even with the loss of Paul George we have to back the home team Clippers who are playing with immediate revenge after losing to OKC 100-101 on Tuesday. Typically, in games like this when a key starter goes out, the role players step up given the opportunity. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last seven games and are starting to play well with Russell Westbrook in the lineup. The Thunder have put together a fantastic season with a 36-36 record and they have won 8 of their last ten games but it’s going to be tough to beat a team the caliber of the Clippers twice in their own joint, in consecutive games. The Clippers average margin of victory against .500 or less teams this season is +6PPG and they still have a very capable Kawhi Leonard on the roster. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and we like that trend to continue here.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +1.5 vs. Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - This is a meaningful game for both teams as the Suns are fighting for the 4 seed in the West, which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs, while the Lakers are just trying to get in. Los Angeles has been MUCH better defensively with LeBron out of the lineup as they are allowing just 110.5PPG since the All-Star break. That’s significantly lower than the 118.2PPG (25th in NBA) prior to the break. The Suns defense has slipped a little since the break and are giving up +2 more PPG than they did pre-All-Star break. The Suns will be without their starting center Deandre Ayton who can defend Anthony Davis for the Lakers. Without Ayton the Suns don’t have an answer for AD who is capable of carrying this Lakers team (five 30-point games in last ten). The Suns aren’t a great road team at 15-21 SU away with a negative -0.6PPG differential. The Lakers have an average +/- at home of plus nearly 3PPG. Both teams need a win, but the Lakers are the more desperate team here.

ASA top play on 10* Vanderbilt pick’em over UAB, 7 PM ET - We have to side with Jerry Stackhouse and the Commodores at home against the UAB Blazers. Vandy finished the season strong with 12 wins in 14 games and just survived a scare against Michigan. The Dores have several impressive wins on their resume with 2 over Kentucky, they beat Tennessee, Florida twice, Mississippi State and Auburn. The overall schedule strength of Vandy is 32nd in the nation and they still have impressive efficiency numbers, ranking 24 in OEFF and 148 in DEFF. UAB is no slouch and have played extremely well themselves with 14 wins in their last sixteen games but 12 of those were against teams ranked outside of the top 100 per Ken Pom. In fact, 6 of those W’s came against teams ranked 200th or worse. Vandy was 14-5 SU at home in the tough SEC, UAB was 6-5 SU away.

ASA NHL PLAY ON 7* Detroit Red Wings Puck Line (+1.5 goals -150) over Florida Panthers, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - So we reduce our star rating from the average 8* to 7* here because of laying a little bit of price to the +1.5 goals on our side. That said, laying 7* on a -160 is the equivalent wager risk amount of laying 10* on a -110. So we are comfortable here because the Red Wings are on home ice and the Panthers have not exactly been crushing teams of late. That said, we will gladly challenge Florida to win this game by a multiple-goal margin. The fact is that the Panthers are 9-6 last 15 games but only 5 of the 9 wins by a multi-goal margin! That means that at a -1.5 price, Florida would be 5-10 last 15 games! As for the Red Wings, they have won 17 of their 34 home games this season and only 9 of the 17 home losses was by a multi-goal margin. That means at +1.5 goals on home ice this season, Detroit is 25-9 on the season! Coming off a rare bad home loss, to the defending champion Avalanche, the Red Wings bounce back here.  They almost always bounce back on home ice when their prior game at home was a multi-goal loss.  Grabbing the 1.5 goals with the home dog Detroit is the play here.

ASA top play 10* on #607 UW Milwaukee +6 vs. Charlotte, 7:30 PM ET - Charlotte has a bit of an advantage having played Saturday while UWM is coming off a game Sunday versus Stetson. These two teams have contrasting styles of play as Milwaukee is 12th in the nation in tempo or pace while Charlotte is one of the slowest at 362. We are fine if Charlotte gets the tempo they want as the dog in a low possession game is always attractive. These two teams come into this post season with different results as the UWM Panthers finished the season on a 3-1 streak after losing to Cleveland State in the Horizon League Tournament. Charlotte on the other hand lost two straight heading into the CUSA Tourney then lost to Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers had played another team from the Horizon earlier this season in Detroit Mercy, who finished 5 games below UWM in conference play, and lost by 21 and won by 2 in OT. The Panthers beat Detroit Mercy twice this season. Charlotte averages 67PPG which makes covering a number as large as 6-points difficult. The 49ers average +/- on the season is +4.1PPG, UW Milwaukee has a +/- of +4.5PPG. The Panthers stay hot and keep this one within the margin.

#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +1.5 over Baylor, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Blue Jays as a slight favorite so we’re getting some value here. Both of these teams played very difficult schedules this season (Baylor 5th SOS / Creighton 13th SOS) and the Jays have the better overall efficiency margin. While both teams average right around 77 PPG, Baylor has a slight edge in offensive efficiency and Creighton has a slight edge in eFG%. These 2 are close offensively. Defensively the Blue Jays are much better this season. They rank 14th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP while Baylor ranks 99th allowing 1.01 PPP. The Bears rank 232nd in eFG% allowed and inside the arc they have been poor defensively ranking 315th. They are, and have been, the worst defense in the Big 12 for the entire season. Struggling to defend inside isn’t a great recipe vs Creighton with 7’1 Kalkbrenner in the middle. Yesterday vs NC State, he was 10 of 13 inside the arc and scored 31 points. Creighton made 64% of their shots inside the arc and should have lots of success again in that area. On the other side, Baylor pretty much relies on the 3 point shot and getting to the FT line. They get very little inside the arc with only 42% of their points which is 358th nationally. Creighton is solid at defending the 3 point line only 13% of their opponents points come from the FT line (3rd least in the country). Baylor will really need to hit a high percentage of triples to win this game in our opinion. We’ll take the better defense and the offense that can score inside and out to win this one. Creighton is the call.

#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -3 over Liberty, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Our concern with Wisconsin in the NIT is would they come with intensity for a program that had been in the NCAA tourney 22 of the previous 23 years. They answered that question last Tuesday rolling over a solid Bradley team by 19 points. The same Bradley team that won the Missouri Velley regular season title over Drake who went to the Dance and nearly upset Miami FL. The Badgers are definitely battle tested playing the 15th most difficult schedule in the country this season. They were just a few plays from comfortably making the NCAA tourney. 5 of their last 6 losses came by 2 points or less or in OT and that was vs a tough Big 10 schedule. Some of their tight losses this year including Kansas in OT, Purdue by 2, Northwestern by 2 & 3 points, Michigan State by 4, and Rutgers by 1. This team seem re-energized last Tuesday as if a stressful weight was lifted off their shoulders. They scored 81 points, their 2nd highest total this season, vs a Bradley defense that ranked #1 in the MVC (efficiency). Liberty had a big win over Villanova which we feel is keeping this line a bit lower than it really should be. It was a 5 point win, however Nova played the game without arguably their 2 best players, Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore. On top of that, Liberty was +7 from the FT line and made 10 three pointers to just 4 for the Wildcats. Thus, the Flames outscored Villanova by 25 points from the FT line + 3 point range and only won by 5. Prior to beating the Wildcats minus their 2 top players, Liberty had played a grand total of 3 teams this season ranked in the top 100 and lost all 3 by double digits. With this line set slow low, we’re really just looking for Wisconsin to win at home and we like them to get it done on Sunday.

#803 ASA TOP PLAY ON Duke -3 over Tennessee, Saturday at 2:40 PM ET - Duke is playing fantastic basketball right now. They’ve won 10 in a row and ran through the ACC tourney rather easily winning 3 games by an average of 15 points per game vs Pitt, Miami, and UVA, all NCAA tourney teams. The Devils then destroyed a solid Oral Roberts team (won by 23) who came into the game with a 30-4 record and a team many thought had a chance to make some waves in this tournament. Since February 1st, this Duke team is rated as the 9th most efficient team in the country and prior to that they were ranked 30th (per Bart Torvik stats). This team is definitely trending in the right direction. Tennessee not so much. They’ve lost 7 of their last 13 games after starting 18-3 and they struggled to beat Louisiana in round one winning by 3 points. Defensively the Vols have remained solid all season but their offense has fallen off a cliff the 2nd half of the season. Since February 1st, Tennessee is ranked outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency and they are now playing without starting PG Zeigler who was their 2nd leading scored and averaged over 5 assists per game along with being their best perimeter defender. Pretty much the opposite of Duke, the Volunteers were ranked #1 nationally in efficiency from the start of the season through the end of January and they’ve dropped to 30th since then. Over their last 5 games Tennessee is scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 65 PPG. For the season on defense they allow 37% shooting and just 26% from deep but over their last 5 that numbers have increased to 43% and 36%. Meanwhile Duke is winning by an average of 15 PPG over their last 5 shooting 49% and allowing 35%. Two teams trending in opposite directions and we’ll take the hot, confident team. Duke is the play.

#798 ASA TOP PLAY ON TCU -5.5 over Arizona State, Friday at 10 PM ET - Rough spot for ASU in this game having just played in Dayton 48 hours ago they are now set for a game in Denver. TCU has been off since last Friday so they should be ready to go in this one. We really liked this Horned Frogs team all season as long as they were healthy. They lost their top player Mike Miles for a stretch of 5 games in early February and went 1-4 in those contests. They were also missing starting forward Peavy for 5 games just prior to Miles going down. When this team was healthy they destroyed Kansas on the road, beat Baylor on the road, topped Texas, and took 2 of 3 from Kansas State all top 3 seeds in this NCAA tourney. They gave a red hot Texas team all they could handle in the Big 12 tourney losing by just 6. This is a very deep Horned Frog team that ranks 13th nationally in bench minutes which should come in handy in the high altitude in Denver facing a Sun Devil team that could be fatigued after playing in the eastern time zone 48 hours ago. ASU is coming off an unreal offensive performance on Wednesday beating Nevada 98-73. As you can expect the Devils shot WAY above their season averages hitting 64% of their shots (they average 42%) and 52% of their 3’s (they average 31%). Despite that effort, this is not a good shooting team ranking outside the top 315 in both 2 point and 3 point FG%. They now face a rested TCU defense that ranks 21st nationally in defensive efficiency and 20th at defending the arc. TCU has played the tougher schedule (11th SOS / USC has played 37th SOS) and despite that the Frogs have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court. Lay it with TCU.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -6 vs. Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - The Cavs are clearly an elite team in the NBA and we like the situation with them coming off a loss at home against the 76ers. Washington had lost 3 straight games, then beat the lowly Pistons 117-97. Both of these offenses have similar statistics when it comes to scoring, shooting and 3-point percentages. The biggest difference is defensively as the Cavs allow just 1.105-points per possession (2nd best) compared to the Wiz who allow 1.148PPP (19th). The Cavaliers have the 4th best average point differential at home at +8.7PPG to go with a 28-8 SU record. Washington is 16-20 SU away from home on the year with a negative differential of minus -0.4PPG. The Cavs are 10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss this season. Cleveland has beaten the Wizards twice this season with both wins coming by 10 or more points. That trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 7:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost a tough one with Chicago. The Bulls shot poorly at 39%, which is well below their season average and still only lost by 3-points. Tonight, the Kings are going to have a tough time on the second night of a back to back. This is also Sacramento’s 5th game in an 8-day span. Last night the Kings starters Sabonis logged 40 minutes, Barnes played 35+ and Fox was on the floor for nearly 33-minutes. Fatigue will be a factor in this game! Brooklyn is 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS their last seven games and are coming off a disappointing loss in OKC on Tuesday. The Nets own the 4th best overall team FG% offense and rank 4th in 3PT%. They should be able to exploit a tired Kings team that ranks 29th in opponents FG% and 25th in 3PT% defense. This isn’t as much a play on the Nets, but more of a play against the Kings. The revenge angle also helps here as Nets allowed over 150 in ugly loss at Sacramento earlier this season. Perfect spot for a play against the Kings!