#976 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+140) over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-43 on the season and have lost 9 straight games!  Milwaukee has won 7 of 10 games and scored an average of 7.6 runs a game in the 7 victories.  We expect the Brewers to stay hot here versus Chicago after punishing their bullpen in yesterday's 12-5 win!  Milwaukee is having a solid season and is 11 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 6-28 this season when facing a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are the much better team and are starting Robert Gasser here.  The rookie has a solid 1.96 ERA this season in his 4 starts and has had fantastic command with only 1 walk in 23 innings!  The White Sox are starting Garrett Crochet here and, though he has solid numbers on the season, he has been struggling at times on the road including allowing 13 earned runs in 19 innings in his 4 away starts since mid-April!  He also is highly unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense!   The White Sox have scored an average of only 2.6 runs in an 18-game stretch (3-15 record).  In terms of bullpens here, Milwaukee relievers have a 24-8 record and 1.24 WHIP.  White Sox relievers have a 4-15 record and a 1.48 WHIP - last in American League!  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a solid plus money return in the +140 range with the Brewers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a nice comeback price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it!

#224201 ASA PLAY ON Borussia Dortmund +1 -125 over Real Madrid, Saturday at 3 ET - This one in Champions League action and it is the big one as it is the Champions League Final. We like the value of the goal line here. Real Madrid is a big favorite on the money line based on their Championship pedigree but this Borussia Dortmund team has been very impressive. We will grab the value of the +1 goal on the goal line here as we can get involved at a reasonable price. As strong as Real Madrid has been, only 12 of last 35 games have been wins by a multi-goal margin. This is why there is such value in looking at the goal line here. This Borussia Dortmund club has been so strong that they will be tough to beat let alone to defeat by a multi-goal margin! Borussia Dortmund has just 5 losses by more than a goal in their last 57 games. We feel they match up well and can frustrate Real Madrid with strong defensive play. Take Borussia Dortmund on Saturday afternoon.

#928 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+130) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - We fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-42 on the season and have lost 8 straight games!  Milwaukee has won 6 of 9 games and scored an average of 7 runs a game in the 6 victories.  We expect the Brewers to stay hot here versus Chicago.  Milwaukee is having a solid season and is 10 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 8-31 this season when facing a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are the much better team and are starting Tobias Myers here.  The rookie has a solid 1.80 ERA this season in his 3 evening games - 2 starts!  The White Sox are starting Erick Fedde here and, though he has decent numbers on the season, he has been struggling on the road including allowing 5 earned runs in each of his two away starts this month!  He also is highly unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense!  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a solid plus money return in the +130 range with the Brewers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a nice comeback price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - Every game in this series has been tightly contested with margins of 3, 1, 9 and 5-points. Dallas has been a great road team all season long and Super Stars Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic won’t be fazed by the big game environment. The Mavs off a loss were one of the best spread record teams in the league this season with a 23-13 ATS record, and they won those games outright by an average of +2.7PPG. In the playoffs, prior to tonight’s situation, they lost 4 games and, in each instance, came back to win the following game. In fact, the Mavs won all four of those games on the road! The Wolves haven’t shot it especially well in this series at 46.5%, and it took a 53% night in Game 4, compared to the Mavs 42% to gain a 5-point win. Karl Anthony Towns has been in a shooting slump this series but made 4 of 5 in Game 4. We don’t expect him to have another game like that, as the previous 3-games he was 3 of 22 from beyond the Arc. At the end of the day, we trust Luka/Kyrie much more than any combination of Wolves players and expect another tight game that goes down to the wire. Grab whatever points are available.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +4.5 at Chicago Sky, 8 PM ET - These two teams are nearly identical statistically this season with Chicago holding a slight advantage in Offensive Net Ratings and Defensive Net Rating. The Sparks are the much better shooting team at 44.09% overall and 37.31% from Deep. Chicago shoots it at 42.06% from the field and 32.56% from beyond the arc. Underdogs have done extremely well this season in the WNBA with a 23-13 ATS record and the Sparks have covered 8 of their last eleven on the road. Chicago is a young team and just 1-4 SU their last five home games. Chicago hasn’t been a Chalk yet this season so grab the value with the Sparks.

ASA WNBA top play on Minnesota Lynx +4.5 vs. Las Vegas Aces, 8 PM ET - The Lynx have been a big surprise this season and off to a 4-1 SU start to the season after finishing 19-21 SU a year ago. Las Vegas dominated the WNBA a season ago with a 34-6 SU record in the regular season and are 3-1 this season, but they have been less than impressive. The Aces are 1-3 ATS with their only cover coming against the Fever who were in a horrible scheduling situation. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS with several impressive wins/covers against Seattle, New York and Connecticut. The Lynx has the second-best Net differential rating in the WNBA at +11.6, compared to the Aces at +7.5. Minnesota is far superior defensively with the best DNR of 91.2, versus this Aces team that has a Defensive Net Rating of 102.4 which ranks 8th. The Lynx has a +10.2PPG differential this season and have won both home games this season. Las Vegas will be playing their first road game of the year and are overpriced in this one.

#919 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 7:40 PM ET - Wednesday we fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-41 on the season! Chicago has lost 7 straight games and 11 of 12 games! Toronto is off to a slow start this season but they are getting closer to .500 as they already have taken advantage of facing the White Sox here and winning B2B games by a combined count of 12 to 3 to begin this series. The White Sox are a horrible 10-34 this season when facing a right-handed starter. The Blue Jays are the much better team and have now won 6 of 10 games and are showing signs of turning things around. Speaking of turnarounds, Alek Manaoh expected to start for the Jays here and he is off of a tough start but was victimized by a couple big hits and a couple of the runs were unearned. Manaoh has held opponents to just 10 hits in 19 innings in his last 3 starts. The White Sox are starting Chris Flexen here and he has been charged with 14 earned runs in 13 innings in his last 3 starts. All were tough outings and we expect more of the same here and he is unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense also! Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a road blowout is our call. We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and laying hardly any juice with the Blue Jays. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota T’Wolves +2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - Minnesota had a fantastic road record this season at 31-16 SU with the second-best average margin of victory at +5.1PPG. The Wolves have been a much better team on the road than at home in the postseason with a 5-1 SU record and a +8.1PPG differential. Dallas is 4-2 SU at home in the playoffs and were 29-18 SU during the regular season with an average +/- of plus 3.6PPG. We are betting the Wolves don’t have a shooting performance like they did in the first two games of this series at 42% considering they shot 48.2% on the season which was 10th best in the NBA. The Wolves were the 3rd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3% and Dallas was 18th in the NBA in defending the Arc. The Mavs were also 20th in the NBA in overall team FG% defense so expect positive regression from Minnesota in Game 3. There is positive support for teams down 0-2 in the Conference Finals and we expect Minny to rebound here with a win.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Atlanta Dream -3.5 vs Minnesota Lynx, 6 PM ET - This is a tough scheduling situation for the Lynx who are coming off a game last night against New York and had to travel to Atlanta for the second night of a back-to-back. This will also be their 3rd game in a four-day span. Two other WNBA teams have fallen into this scheduling scenario this season, and both have been blown out by double-digits. Atlanta is 2-1 SU this season with a road win against the Sparks, a close loss to Phoenix and a home win against Dallas. Minnesota is 3-1 SU with a pair of wins over Seattle, a road loss to Connecticut and a win last night versus the Liberty. Minnesota’s has the best defensive Net rating in the NBA but that number is somewhat misleading considering they played the Storm twice who are last in the league in offensive Net rating. Atlanta’s strength is their offense as they rank 5th in Net rating at 105.3 which is significantly higher than the Lynx at 95.9. Atlanta won 2 of three last year versus the Lynx and with the tough schedule situation we like the Dream to get another W here.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +1.5 vs Indiana Fever, 10 PM ET - Our model as the Sparks favored at home here so we will gladly take the points with the better team. Indiana is 0-5 SU on the season, the Sparks are 1-2 SU. Los Angeles was recently a 2-point favorite at home in their most recent game, which was a win over Washington, who we grade slightly better than the Fever. L.A.’s two losses have come against an improved Atlanta team and the Champs from a season ago on the road in Las Vegas. Indiana has faced a tough early season slate themselves and have lost two straight close games to Connecticut and Seattle. The Sparks will have the two best players on the floor in Derica Hamby who is averaging 22PPG, 13.7 RPG and 2.0SPG and has a pair of double-doubles this season. Kia Nurse is averaging 16.3PPG on 54.5% shooting overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. Her 3PT% is second best in the league among players with 6 or more 3PT attempts per game. L.A. has won 8 of the last ten meetings outright with the Fever and we like them to get a W at home tonight.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, Game 2, 8:30 PM ET - We like the Wolves to bounce back here after their Game 1 loss to the Mavs. The T’Wolves are 23-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 17-12 ATS with a double-digit average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Minnesota had the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.1PPG. The Wolves have lost back-to-back home games just 3 times this entire season so we’re betting it doesn’t happen here. In Game 1 the Wolves shot 43% overall and 37% from Deep. Those numbers are well below their season averages of 48.3% and 38.3%. Dallas on the other hand shot well at 49% overall but struggled from beyond the Arc at 24%. Minnesota was the best defensive team in the league this season and held opponents to 45.1% shooting which was 1st. in the NBA. The Mavs also enjoy a +8 rebound margin in Game 1 which is unlikely to happen tonight considering the Wolves had the 7th best rebound percentage in the league versus Dallas who was 23rd. Dallas gained home court advantage with their Game 1 win so a letdown here would not surprise us. Back the Timberwolves at home.

#911 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET - The White Sox got a win Tuesday but then resumed their losing ways yesterday (we had the Blue Jays for a win over Chicago). Now on Thursday we fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-35 on the season! Baltimore is off of being swept in their series at St Louis and being on the wrong end of series sweeps like that for the Orioles has certainly been rare in recent seasons. We expect the Orioles to bounce back here and get healthy at Chicago. Baltimore is having a solid season and are 11 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 6-23 this season when facing a team with a winning record. The Orioles are the much better team and have not lost more than 3 straight yet this season and that only happened twice the entire season last year! Baltimore is starting Garrett Rodriguez and he is 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA this season! The White Sox are starting Mike Clevinger here and he is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in his 3 starts this season. He has yet to complete 5 innings in any of his 3 starts and is unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense also! Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a road blowout is our call. We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a moderate (but fair) price in the -140 range with the Orioles. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs! Lay it!

#970 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET - The White Sox got the win yesterday but are still only 15-34 on the season and they are also 1-5 on the season when they enter a road game coming off a win in their prior game. Chicago is also an ugly 5-20 on the season in road games!  Toronto has not been great this season but they are a .500 team at home and a .500 team when facing a team with a losing record.  The Blue Jays are the better team and had won B2B games plus allowed only 3 runs per game the last 6 games previous to the loss yesterday to the White Sox. Toronto is a perfect 3-0 (including 2-0 this season) when coming off a shutout loss.  Toronto is starting Bassitt and he has been rounding into form with solid starts in 6 of his last 7 outings.  He allowed only 2 runs per start in those 6 games.  Bassitt is a much better pitcher than his ERA so far this season would indicate.  The White Sox are starting a struggling Nastrini here as he was 0-4 with a 5.83 ERA in his 6 minor league starts this season.  He also has struggled in his only two starts at the MLB level this year which is his rookie season.  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -120 range with the Blue Jays.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 over Indiana Pacers, Tuesday 8 PM ET - In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals we expect a blowout win by the home team Celtics. Boston is 41-6 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +14.6PPG. Going back another full season the Celtics stand 78-21 SU at home +11.5PPG. Boston opened their series up against the Heat in the first round with a 20-point win. In the first game of round 2 versus the Cavs the C’s won by 25. The Celtics big advantage in this match up in their defense. Indiana can’t simply outscore their opponent in this round as the Celtics were better than the Pacers in offensive efficiency this season. Defensively it’s not close as Boston had the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating compared to Indiana who ranked 24th. Indiana is a great story in the playoffs but let’s face it, they beat a Bucks team without Giannis and Lillard missed 2 games and wasn’t 100%. The Pacers then faced a Knicks team without 3 regular season starters and then Hart and Brunson both got hurt. Indiana was 23-26 SU on the road this season and have a short turnaround here after that brutally tough 7-game series with the Knicks. When playing with a rest advantage the Celtics are 26-3 SU this season, 16-12-1 ATS with those wins coming by +14.8PPG. Indiana was 7-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage this season. Boston in a Game 1 runaway win!

#920 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Angels rallied from a 6-1 deficit yesterday in a 9-7 win.  The Astros were 9-2 last 11 games prior to yesterday's loss.  Houston is 3-0 L3 games when they are coming off a loss.  The Angels are 0-3 L3 games when they have entered a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games.  Los Angeles is starting Griffin Canning here and he is 0-4 with a 6.64 ERA when pitching on the road this season.  The Astros are starting Cristan Javier here and he is 3-0 with an 0.75 ERA in his 4 starts at home this season.  Javier is 33-18 with a 3.55 ERA in his MLB career.  The Angels continued their big success (7-2 YTD) against left-handed starters with yesterday's upset win.  However, LA is 12-27 against right-handed starters this season.  The Astros have the bullpen edge here as well with an ERA ranking middle of MLB while the Angels bullpen ERA is among the worst in the major league.  Houston is hitting .274 in home games this season and that ranks at the top of the majors!  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -105 range with the Astros.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Connecticut Sun -4 at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - These two teams met in the opener with the Sun favored by -6.5 points at home over the Fever. Connecticut won that game 92-71 on 48% shooting overall, 43% from the 3-point line, were +2 in rebounds and had 10 less turnovers. It's a small sample size but the Fever have the worse Defensive Net rating in the league at 115.9 and the worst overall Net rating of minus -28.7. Caitlyn Clark is obviously a very special talent offensively, but she hasn't improved the Fever's defense which was 11th of out twelve teams a year ago. The Sun were the 2nd best defensive team in the WNBA a year ago and currently rank 3rd in DNR at 90.8. Connecticut has a positive Net rating of +17.8, are 2-0 SU this season with wins of +19 and +7. The Sun were 14-6 SU on the road last season, the Fever were 6-14 SU at home. The Sun have now beaten this Indiana team 9 straight times with the three most recent coming by 16, 17 and 19-points. Lay it with the road favorite.

#201318 ASA PLAY ON Bologna PK-123 over Juventus, Monday at 2:45 ET - This one in Italian Serie A. This is a value spot for the home team on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK-123 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Bologna but it is nice to have that added value with this line. This is a big 3-4 battle in the standings but Bologna's home dominance is why there is such value here. They are 12-4-2 at home this season and have allowed only 9 goals while scoring 30 in these 18 matches. Juventus has only 8 wins in 18 road games this season and their differential in goals on the road is only 8 via a 25-17 edge compared to that 30-9 edge for Bologna at home. Bologna has the rest edge too as Juventus had to play Atalanta in mid-week Coppa Italia action. Great value with the home team at a fair price here on the goal line. Take Bologna on Monday afternoon.

ASA WNBA play on #616 Washington Mystics +5.5 vs Seattle Storm, 3 PM ET - The Storm have underachieved this season with an 0-2 ATS record as they’ve been overpriced in both games this season. The Storm were favored by -7.5 points in the season opener and lost by 13 outright. In Game 2 of the season, they were favored by -1.5 at Minnesota and lost again by 9-points. Washington is the exact reverse. The Mystic are 0-2 SU but have covered both games of the season against two of the leagues better teams in New York and Connecticut. Washington played the Liberty extremely well in the season opener losing by just 5-points at home as a +11.5-point underdog. On Friday they traveled to Connecticut to face the Sun and lost by 7 as an 8-point pooch. Last season the Mystic beat this Storm team three times by +7, +6 and +7. The wrong team is favored here and we like the host to win this game outright.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - We’ve clearly watched every second of every game in the playoffs (and regular season for that matter of fact) and we were surprised at the lack of urgency displayed by the Thunder at home in Game 5. Shai Gilgeous Alexander can only do so much, and we are finding out the young supporting cast of OKC may not be up for the task. The Mavs Luka Doncic looked infinitely better in the last game after struggling through several games with nagging injuries. Doncic posted a triple-double with 31-points, 11-assists and 10-rebounds in the Mavericks G5 win. The Thunder won the previous meeting on this court but Doncic and Irving both played well below standards with a combined 27-points, 19-assists and 13-rebounds. Dallas has been active on the boards in this series (Gafford + Lively) with a 52% rebound percentage compared to the Thunders 47.3%. They also have the better overall EFG% of the two teams in this round of 52.6% versus 47.3%. OKC is not getting enough scoring out of role players Jalen Williams (43% shooting/17PPG in series) and Luguentz Dort (34.5% FG/10PPG). All of the previously mentioned stats on Willaims and Dort are below their season averages. With Luka looking more healthy and the Mavs at home where they are 28-18 SU this season with an average MOV of +3.7PPG, we like Dallas to win and move on.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +1.5 vs Seattle Storm, 9:30 PM ET - These two teams met in Seattle in the season opener for each team and the Lynx came out on top 83-70 as a +7.5-point underdog. We like Minnesota to win again and don’t feel they should be the home dog here. The Lynx played an all-around good game in Seattle with the difference being their defense as they held the Storm to 37% shooting overall and 11% from beyond the arc. Minnesota shot 45% overall and made 7 of 24 3-pointers for 29%. The Storm were the last team in the WNBA in offensive Net rating and last in EFG% at 47.2%. Minnesota was better in terms of ONR last season than the Storm and slightly worse in defensive Net rating. The Lynx were respectable at home last season with a 9-11 SU record compared to the Storm who were 7-13 SU on the road. Seattle’s shooting woes in the first game of the season is a direct correlation to last year’s lack of shooting success as they were last in the league in team FG% at .410. Minnesota has beaten the Storm outright in 4 of the last five meetings overall and also cashed the money in 4 of five. The wrong team is favored here. Take the Lynx!

ASA top play on NY Knicks +6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - We expect this game to go down to the wire and will gladly take the points with the Knicks here. The Knicks (+6) were recently blown out on this court 89-121 in Game 4 so why isn’t the line adjusted slightly higher for this game. New York is the tougher team, they have played in more close games and have a Star in Jalen Brunson who can carry a team. The Pacers don’t have a player like Brunson as Haliburton is still coming into his own. Indiana is 17-16-1 ATS as a home favorite this season or 51.5%. New York is 14-14-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential in those games of minus -2.7PPG. Two key factors in efficiency ratings are rebounding and free throws and the Knicks have dominated those two categories. The Knicks are attempting 24 free throws per game in this series compared to just 16.8 by Indiana. New York is also plus nearly +7 more rebounds per game with nearly 4 of those per game coming offensively. I’m betting the moment is too big for the young Pacers and New York covers this spread.

#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - The Phillies are at home and off a home loss last night in a game they blew a late lead and lost in extra innings. It was a sloppy ending to an otherwise strong stretch of 3 straight wins over the Mets. Grabbing the Phillies off a loss has been a cash cow this season as the Phillies are 11-1 the last 12 times they have entered a game off a loss. Also, 16 of the last 20 Phillies wins have been by 2 or more runs! So Philadelphia is in a great bounce back spot and also likely to win big. The Nationals come into this game having lost 4 of 5 games and they have scored an average of only 1 run the 4 losses! Washington is hitting only .221 on the road this season which is 2nd to LAST in the NL as only the Marlins are hitting worse. The Phillies are hitting .264 in evening games which is 2nd only to the Dodgers in all of MLB this season! Wheeler gets the start for Philadelphia here and he is coming off a rare tougher start but that was on the road and means bounce back time here! Wheeler has a 1.44 ERA in home games this season and has held opponents to a .167 batting average in his 5 home starts while striking out 44 in 31 innings! The Nationals start Jake Irvin here and he has pitched better of late but he has had some tougher starts against stronger hitting teams. Above, we talked about the Phillies being second to only the Dodgers in team batting average in evening games this season. Well, LA got to Irvin for 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings the last time he faced them. Also, Irvin gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings when the Phillies faced him earlier this season. Irvin was 2-5 with a 5.43 ERA last year in evening action in his rookie season. This year he also has a higher ERA in night games (4.86 ERA) than day games. The Nationals are just 6-11 against teams with a winning record this season. The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball and are in an 11-1 situation. Also, 16 of 22 Nationals losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and laying the 1.5 runs! Lay it for a Top Play!

#201282 ASA PLAY ON Fiorentina PK-130 over Napoli, Friday at 2:45 ET - This one in Italian Serie A. This is a value spot for the home team on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK-130 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Fiorentina but it is nice to have that added value with this line. Fiorentina has been the hotter team of late plus they have the home field edge here plus Napoli is going to be without star striker Viktor Osimhen. That hurts the attacking ability of the visitors in this one. Also, Fiorentina has been hot in Serie A action with a 3-1 last 4 games and only one loss last 5 games. Napoli has just one win last 10 games. Tremendous value with the goal line when you consider these numbers and the fact the fact the road team is without a key player they rely on when it comes to the attack! Take Fiorentina on Friday afternoon.

#956 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-155) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 10:10 PM ET - Dodgers are a 3 to 1 favorite on the money line but we get value by utilizing the run line. The Dodgers are off a loss but this followed having won 17 of 21 games and 20 of last 22 wins have been by 2+ runs. LA has an average margin of victory of 4 runs in their 29 wins this season! The Dodgers have averaged 5.3 runs per game this season and are one of the top hitting teams in the majors! The Reds are one of the worst hitting teams in the league and they are hitting only .218 on the season! Compare that to a Dodgers team that has a slugging percentage of .462 and batting average of .262 to lead the majors so far this season! HUGE difference and, speaking of huge variances, the Reds have a mediocre bullpen while that is a strength of the Dodgers. Also, LA is starting Tyler Glasnow and he is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA this season. The Reds are starting Brent Suter here but he is more of an opener and Nick Martinez is likely to get most of the work since Nick Lodolo was put on the DL. Martinez has a 4.86 ERA this season and has been quite hittable! Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call. We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -155 range with the Dodgers. Los Angeles is 5-0 the last 5 times they have entered a game off a loss. Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and 1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -7 vs Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Liberty and fade an over-valued Fever team with rookie sensation Caitlyn Clark. Clark and the Fever lost their opener against Connecticut (we were on the Suns in that game too) in blowout fashion 71-92. The Fever attempted only 50 field goals in the game compared to 66 for the Sun and they turned it over 25 times. New York is coming off a 5-point win at Washington but didn’t play well as they were favored by -11.5 and needed some 4th quarter magic from Laney-Hamilton to pull out the victory. Indiana had a negative point differential of minus 4PPG last season and were 6-14 SU at home, 13-27 SU overall. The Fever didn’t get off to a great start last season with a 1-3 record in May. Clark clearly is a HUGE addition, but she is a horrible defender and Indiana won’t improve on that end of the court with her in the lineup. Indiana was last in the league in overall defensive net rating and last in 3PT% D allowing opponents to make 37.53% of their attempts. In comparison, the Liberty allowed the fourth fewest PPG in the WNBA at 80.6PPG and had the 3rd best defensive Net rating. NY had the 2nd best Net rating in the WNBA at +10.3, the Fever had the 9th worst at -4.4. The Liberty were one of only 4 teams in the league a year ago that had a positive scoring differential. New York’s average Margin of Victory was 2nd in the league at +8.6PPG and they won 17 of 20 road games. NY beat this Indiana team 4 times last season, all by 8+ points, 3 by double-digits. We like the Liberty big in this one.

Oklahoma City Thunder -2 1st HALF vs Dallas Mavericks OR you can play **the game at OKC -4** for those of you who do not have access to 1st HALF lines. REGULAR SEASON 1ST HALF RESULTS... During the regular season the Thunder were 49-32 SU in the 1st half of games with an average +/- of +3.7PPG. At home the Thunder were 27-14 SU. Dallas during the regular season was 37-44 SU with an average +/- of +1.0PPG. On the road they were 18-21 SU. In the Playoffs the Thunder are 5-2 SU in the 1st half of games, the Mavs are 5-4 SU. WHEN IF COMES TO NET RATINGS… During the regular season the Thunder had the 3rd best Net rating differential in the 1st half of games at a positive +7.61. Dallas had the 13th best 1st half Net rating at +2.6. In the playoffs the Thunder have the 5th best overall Net differential rating, the Mavs are 9th. SERIES THUS FAR... The Thunder have been up at halftime in 3 of the four games in this series. **The Mavs look like they are wearing down and we like a big first half effort from OKC in front of their home crowd.**For those unable to play the 1st HALF line:

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 PM ET - We will side with the home team Thunder and Shai Gilgeous Alexander over the Mavs and the injured Luka Doncic. The Thunder won the opener of this series at home 117-95. Then the young Thunder found out what playoff basketball is all about and dropped Game 2 at home and Game 3 in Dallas. Then OKC found their confidence and won the critical Game 4 on the Mavs home court. This OKC team has one of the best home courts in the NBA and stands 36-9 SU in this venue. The +12.8PPG average point differential at home is the 2nd largest number in the league. OKC has better overall offensive and defensive Net ratings in the postseason and are 3-1 SU on their home court. SGA is healthy and Luka clearly is not. Irving was a no-show in the last game with 9-points. We like the Thunder to win this home game by 8+ points.

#924 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - Astros are a 5 to 2 favorite on the money line but we get value by utilizing the run line.  The Astros have won 5 of 6 games.  Before yesterday's 2-1 win in extra innings, 14 of the first 16 wins this season for Houston have been by 2 or more runs!  The Athletics have lost 8 of 10 games and Oakland, prior to yesterday's loss by a single run, had 14 of last 17 losses come by 2 or more runs.  Oakland starting Aaaron Brooks here and he is 9-13 with a 6.55 ERA in his MLB career.  Brooks was struggling in the minors so far this season but the A's giving him a shot here in his first MLB start since 2019 and first MLB appearance since 2022.    Houston starting Framber Valdez and he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts.  He also has walked only 3 batters last four starts and is rounding into form after missing a lot of time in April.  While Houston is on a 5-1 run, the A's are on a 2-8 run and we like the value here as Houston is not use to looking up to Oakland in the standings and they continue to bounce back from slow start while the A's slump continues.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -120 range with the Astros.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and 1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10:30 PM ET - This has been a wild series with the visitor winning all four games. Minnesota won the opening games of the series in Denver with the second of the two coming by 26-points. Denver then went to Minnesota and won by 27 and 8-points. If we focus on Game 4 there were a few isolated outliers that we don’t expect to happen in Game 5. The Nuggets shot 57% as a team overall, 45% from deep and Aaron Gordon put up a ridiculous shooting performance with 11/12 from the field including 2-2 on 3-pointers. The Nuggets bench did not contribute in the first two games of the series, then played well in Game 4 with Braun, Holiday and Jackson combining for 8 of 14 shooting. The Wolves didn’t play badly in G4, but Anthony Edwards clearly needs Edwards, Conley or Gobert to shoulder more of the scoring load. Minnesota has lost two straight games 5 times this season and did not lose 3 in a row once. They have covered 4 of the last five meetings with the Nuggets in Denver and the one game they didn’t cover they lost by 9-points as a +7.5-point dog. The first four games of this series (like all the series) have been physical dog fights, and the deeper Wolves have the advantage here in altitude. Minnesota’s bench had the 2nd best Net rating in the regular season of +3.1, Denver was 21st. I can’t call for an outright win by Minnesota but expect a very tight game and will grab whatever points are available.

ASA play on Connecticut Sun -6 vs. Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - The deserved hype surrounding rookie sensation Caitlyn Clark has given the WNBA a huge boost in popularity AND has forced the oddsmakers to inflate the Fever’s value. The last two times these teams met on this court the Sun were favored by 10 and 12-points respectively. Connecticut had a +3.72 average margin of victory last season and finished the regular season with a 27-13 SU record. The Sun started the season off with a 4-1 SU record a year ago and finished the season with a 13-7 SU record on their home court. Indiana had a negative point differential of minus 4PPG last season and were 7-13 SU on the road, 13-27 SU overall. The Fever didn’t get off to a great start last season with a 1-3 record in May. Clark clearly is a HUGE addition but she is a horrible defender and Indiana won’t improve on that end of the court with her in the lineup. Indiana was last in the league in overall defensive net rating and last in 3PT% D allowing opponents to make 37.53% of their attempts. In comparison, the Sun allowed just 78.97PPG best in the WNBA and held opponents to 32% 3-points shooting. Connecticut had the 3rd best Net rating in the WNBA at +4.4, the Fever had the 9th worst at -4.4. The Sun have beaten this Fever team 8 straight times and will be primed to hand the rookie her first pro loss.

#200165 ASA PLAY ON Manchester City -1.5 -110 over Tottenham, Tuesday at 3 ET - This one in English Premier League action. We like the value of the goal line here. Manchester City is a big favorite on the money line but by laying the 1.5 goals on the goal line here, we can get involved at a reasonable price. City has a chance to win the title again this season. They are in 2nd place but, by virtue of Arsenal finishing in a draw with Liverpool Monday, City can overtake Arsenal at the top with a win here.  We foresee not only a win here for Manchester City but also a win by at least a 2-goal margin. Having the goal line at a reasonable price with City is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! Totenham is off a win but had lost 4 straight prior to that and 3 of the 4 losses were by 2 or more goals.  City has won 7 straight games in Premier League contests and all 7 wins were by at least 2 goals and now have their sights set on winning it all as the door flung wide open with Arsenal's draw yesterday. Take Manchester City on Tuesday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -6.5 vs NY Knicks, Friday 7 PM ET - The Pacers have outplayed the Knicks for large stretches of both games in this series but some questionable calls by officials, and late game big shots by the Knicks have them down 0-2. Indiana is going to feed off their home crowd and get a big win in Game 3 as the Knicks short rotation starts to wear down. Coach Thibadeau has been criticized in the past for not using his bench players and that could be a key factor as this series goes on. Indiana plays at a frenetic pace and rotate 9 players which will eventually take a toll on the 7-man rotation that the Knicks employ. Case in point, in Game 2 the Pacers had 9 players log over 14 minutes each with no starter playing more than 37 minutes. The Knicks had 4 of five starters play over 32 minutes and Anunoby left the game early with an injury and Brunson sat for extended time also with an apparent injury. If Anunoby and Brunson are not 100% this may be a ‘throw away’ game for the Knicks. Indiana had the best bench Offensive Net Rating in the regular season, the Knicks bench ranked 24th. Indiana was 29-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best average point differential of +7.2PPG. New York was a very good road team this season at 25-19 SU and an average plus/minus of +3.0PPG. Surprisingly, the Pacers had a better SU record against the NBA’s top 16 teams at 25-22 compared to the Knicks record of 21-27. Indiana was the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss with a 25-12-2 ATS record and a 67.6% cover rate. Indiana showed some Moxy in the first round series against the Bucks and will be up for this challenge at home in this Game 3. Lay it!

#910 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - Dodgers are a 3 to 1 favorite on the money line but we get value by utilizing the run line.  The Dodgers have won 5 straight games and 12 of 14 games and 10 of those 12 wins were by 2+ runs.  LA has an average margin of victory of 4 runs in their 2 dozen wins this season!  The Dodgers have averaged 5.5 runs per game this season and are one of the top hitting teams in the majors!  The Marlins are one of the worst hitting teams in the league and they have been particularly bad under the lights.  In night games, Miami is scoring just 2.5 runs per game and their slugging percentage (yes, SLUGGING percentage) is only .275 in night games this season!  Compare that to a Dodgers team that has a slugging percentage of .487 and batting average of .292 under the lights this season!  HUGE difference and, speaking of huge variances, the Marlins have a weak bullpen while that is a strength of the Dodgers.  Also, LA is starting Yoshinobu Yamamoto and he is 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA this season.  The Marlins are starting Edward Cabrera and, though he gets a lot of strikeouts, he also gives up too many mistake pitches too.  That is why the Miami right-hander has been charged with 12 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 outings.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -145 range with the Dodgers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and 1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -11.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The well rested Celtics are going to make a statement in Game 1 as they catch a depleted Cavaliers team coming off a very tough 7-game series with Orlando. Boston was 2-1 against the Cavs in the regular season with the home team winning all three games. The C’s two wins at home were by 11 and 7-points. Boston is dominating at home with a 39-5 SU record and an average +/- of plus 15.2PPG. Cleveland on the other hand was an ‘average’ road team at 22-22 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.7PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Celtics are 25-3 SU, 15-12-1 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +14.4PPG. With a rest disadvantage the Cavs are 10-13-1 ATS, 13-11 SU this season. Boston was arguably the best team in the NBA the entire season ranking 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd defensively. The Cavs were great defensively all season long ranking 6th in DEFF, but offensively they averaged 1.152PPP which ranked 18th. Those numbers are very similar to each team’s playoff statistics as the Celtics have the 4th best offensive net rating and the 3rd defensive net rating. Cleveland is 4th in defensive net rating, but 15th (out of 16) in ONR. Cleveland expended a ton of energy in that first round series and won’t have enough in the tank to keep this Game 1 close. Bet Boston minus the double-digits.

#224210 ASA PLAY ON Paris Saint-Germain -1 -135 over Borussia Dortmund, Tuesday at 3 ET - This one in Champions League action. This is the 2nd Leg of this semifinals match-up. We like the value of the goal line here. PSG is a big favorite on the money line but by laying the 1 goal on the goal line here, we can get involved at a reasonable price. Paris Saint-Germain lost the first meeting 1-0 but had plenty of chances. They will cash in more of those at home! We feel certain of even more opportunities now that they are at home for this game. More opportunities and better finishes for the home club. They will also not want to risk this one being decided after regulation. So already trailing 1-0, they not only push for the 1 goal win but also a win by at least a 2-goal margin. Having the goal line at a reasonable price with PSG on their home field is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! Take Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 PM ET - This series is essentially over if the Nuggets don’t win Game 2 at home. The T’Wolves shot 48.5% on the season but they had an exceptionally great night from the field at 52% overall and 41% from Deep. I expect a regression in Game 2. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-9 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-17 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-36 SU +7.4PPG. The Nuggets were 13-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss but they did have an average winning margin of +6.0PPG. Denver lost 8 home games this season and in their next home game following a home loss they were 7-1 SU and won those games by an average of 16PPG. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota did some things well in the opener and were able to run three different Bigs at the Joker and he still scored 32-points, grabbed 8 rebounds and dished out 9 assists. Denver head coach Malone will make adjustments and Jamal Murray will step up as he so often does in big moments.

ASA top play on NY Knicks -5.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:30 PM ET - The Pacers pretty much punched a soft Milwaukee team in the mouth and the timid Bucks didn’t respond. That same approach isn’t going to work against the toughest team in the league, the NY Knicks. The home crowd will be a big advantage in this series opener and the Pacers are in for an eye-opener in the Garden. Much like Game 1 of the first series when the young Pacers were blown out by Milwaukee 94-109. Indiana is below average on the road this season with a 22-23 SU record and a negative average point differential of minus -1.4PPG. The Knicks were 29-15 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.6PPG. As a home chalk the Knicks were 18-15 ATS with an average +/- of +9.0PPG. Indiana had the better offensive efficiency rating this season ranking 2nd in the NBA, but the Knicks weren’t far behind ranking 7th. Defensively it’s not close though as NY is 9th in DEFF, the Pacers are 24th. Indiana is at their best when they dictate pace, but that won’t happen against this New York team that is the slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.2 possessions per game during the regular season.

#200122 ASA PLAY ON Crystal Palace PK -135 over Manchester United, Monday at 3 ET - This one in English Premier League action. We like the value of the goal line here. Crystal Palace, for a price, is available at a pick'em on the goal line which turns a draw into a push. We are happy to challenge Manchester United to beat CP in this one. Ever since Palace made the managerial change from Roy Hodgson they have played better. Crystal Palace won the most recent meeting with Manchester United plus they earned a draw when they most recently hosted Manchester United. Crystal Palace has only 3 losses in last 11 games overall! Manchester United has just 1 win in last 7 games. Having the goal line at a pick'em with Palace on their home pitch is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! Take Crystal Palace on Monday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 7 PM ET - This could be the best series of the entire playoffs, but we have to back the home team here and expect the Nuggets to serve notice in Game 1. During the regular season and as recently as April 10th the Nuggets were much larger favorites at home of -7.5-points and are now laying a shorter number here. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-8 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-16 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-35 SU +7.4PPG. Where we are going with this is that Denver is dominating as a host and even though the Wolves looked great in their opening series, this is a whole different level in the Mile High City. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota’s opening round series sweep over the Suns isn’t as impressive as you might think as the Suns aren’t that good to begin with. The Wolves were 28-15 SU away this season with an average +/- of +5.0PPG. The Nuggets can match the T’Wolves size (Jokic + Gordon) and have a great perimeter defender in Caldwell Pope who can make Anthony Edwards work for his points. With the home crowd support we like Denver to win game 1 and cover in the process.

ASA top play on Orlando Magic -3.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The home team is 5-0 SU in this series and all but one of those home wins have come by 10 or more points. We were on the Cavs last game and unbeknownst to us the Cavs Jarrett Allen was ruled out shortly before tipoff. Cleveland managed to win but it was by 1-point. We talked about how ‘average’ the Magic are on the road, but at home they are fantastic. They are 31-12 SU at home on the season with an average +/- of plus +8.9PPG which is the 4th best average in the NBA. Cleveland is only 1-game over .500 on the road this season with a negative point differential of minus -0.4PPG. The young Magic feed off their home crowd which has helped them beat this Cavaliers team in 3 of four meetings this season, with wins of 10, 38 and 23. Orlando is better in terms of offensive efficiency in this series and they have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the playoffs allowing just .973-points per possession. We like the Magic to force a game 7 with a solid home win Friday night.

ASA play on NY Knicks +3.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 9 PM ET - We will grab the dog here in New York who has been the better overall team in this series. One constant we know in backing New York is this, and everyone watching this series can attest to it, the Knicks play harder than Philly. They are undersized yet own the 4th best rebound percentage of all the teams in the playoffs while the 76ers rank 13th. The Sixers got a herculean effort out of Maxey in Game 5 when he scored 46 points and back-packed the team late with a 4-point play and a looonngg 3-pointer which sent the game to OT. Joel Embiid looks to be favoring that bad knee and his stamina just isn’t there. New York had the 2nd best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss at 21-11-1 ATS with a winning margin of +5.1PPG. This is going to be another barn-burner and will be decided by a bucket or less either way so grab the dog and the points.

#961 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 2:35 PM ET - Rangers off a shutout loss 1-0 yesterday.  Bounce back spot here for Texas and they have a solid pitching edge here too.  Mitchell Parker gets the start for the Nationals and he has been shaky in both his road starts including the most recent one.  That was against a weak hitting Marlins team in Miami and Parker had to navigate 8 baserunners in just 4 innings and was fortunate to allow only 1 run.  The Rangers are going with Nathan Eovaldi here and, though he has had some issues with walks this season, he has been strong overall at home and has a huge experience edge over Parker here.  Eovaldi is entering his 14th season and he has a 2.04 ERA at home and has piled up strikeouts there!  The Rangers are 10-1 this season when off a loss by a margin of 4 or less runs and that includes 8 in a row!  This spot should make 9 in a row as Washington is 1-5 this season when off a road win by a margin of 2 or less runs.  Remember last season only ONE team in the NL had fewer wins than the Nationals.  As for the Rangers, they are the defending World Series Champions (Eovaldi was 5-0 in P/O and was the winning pitcher in the World Series clincher)!  Given that, as well as all of the above and the great situational support, this is a superb spot.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the even money range with the Rangers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the 1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - This line smells! It’s fishy to begin with, then Dallas gets hammered with $ and it moves from -1 to the current number of -3. If it’s too good to be true, then it isn’t! Back the Mavericks here off that disappointing Game 4 loss at home as they are 20-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss with a positive plus/minus. As an away favorite the Mavs have been outstanding this season at 19-5 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +7.4PPG. The LA Clippers have been home underdogs just 6 times this season and are 2-4 ATS in those games with an average differential of minus -9.5PPG. Kyrie was amazing last game and carried the load as Luka had an off night. If both players are on their game tonight the Clippers will be in trouble in this critical Game 5. Bet contrarian here and take Dallas minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - This series is tied 2-2 with the home team winning each game by double-digits and we are betting that trend continues here. The Cavaliers won the first two games of the series at home by 14 and 10-points. Then the series shifted to Orlando where the Magic won by 38 and 23-points. Those two embarrassing defeats will have the Cavs in the proper frame of mind to get a home win here. The Magic had a fantastic regular season record at 47-35 SU, but the majority of those wins came at home where they were 29-12. On the road in the regular season, they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big-time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. Cleveland was very good off a loss this season with a 22-12 SU record and an average +/- of +2.5PPG. Orlando was 15-15 ATS as an away Dog this season with a net differential per game of minus -6.7PPG. Cleveland was one game below .500 as a home favorite ATS but they did win those games by an average of +6.4PPG.

#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Chicago White Sox, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - We had our eyes on this one for a few days and everything has come together nicely for a big play.  The White Sox have suddenly won 3 straight but faced a struggling Rays team that has now lost 6 of 7 and has not been playing good baseball.  Now this 6-22 Chicago team faces a red hot Minnesota club that just swept them in a 4-games series and followed it up by sweeping the Angels in a 3-game series!  Our concern with the Twins early this season was their bats but they are absolutely getting it going now and are loaded with confidence at the plate.  Also, they have scored at least 5 runs in all 7 victories in their 7 game winning streak and they just pounded the Angels by a combined 27-10 in the last two games of that 3-game sweep!  The Twins bats have come alive big-time!  Also, they hold a big pitching edge here.  Yes, Garrett Crochet has some impressive strikeout numbers this season but he has struggled with allowing too many hits, including big hits, in his last 3 starts.  It has been like Jekyll and Hyde when you look at Crochet's first 3 starts compared to his next 3 starts this season.  He also just faced the Twins and struggled as part of a stretch in which the young hurler has allowed at least 5 earned runs in all 3 starts even though he has not gotten past the 5th inning in any of the outings!  He will be no match for Joe Ryan here.  Like Crochet, Ryan is piling up strikeouts too.  However, unlike Crochet, Ryan is a veteran pitcher and he has been in consistently strong form all season long.  He recently pitched very well against the White Sox and he also has been in top form in his two road starts this season with just 1 earned run allowed in each.  11 of the Twins 14 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs.  16 of the last 19 losses that Chicago has suffered have been of the multi-run variety.  We are going to take advantage of the value on the run line here in a game our computer math model shows strong odds of turning into a road rout.  Lay the 1.5 with Minnesota

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - The Bucks are in a very tough situation here without Giannis and now Dame Lillard who are their two leading scorers. Khris Middleton put this team on his back in Game 3, scored 42 and it still wasn’t enough as Milwaukee lost in OT. You could see Middleton was exhausted in that game and now he’ll be the focal point of the Pacers defense so we’re not sure where the Bucks scoring will come from. Indiana had 6 players score in double digits and also got 6-points from Sheppard and 7 from McConnell off the bench. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 14-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 6-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. Lay it here with the Pacers.

#975 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-150) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Astros won 12-4 yesterday and the posted total on this game is 16 because of where it is being played.  This one at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú in Mexico City.  Yesterday's game totaled 16 runs and this 2-game series is playing out in similar fashion to last year's 2-game series between the Padres and Giants in the thin air of Mexico City and with this stadium having modest dimensions. The thing is, just like yesterday, it is the Astros bats that will make the most noise.  The Rockies have just 2 high-scoring wins in their current 3-10 run over the last 13 games.  How did those other 11 games go?  Just 1.8 runs scored per game!  This is despite many of those games being played at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  The fact is that Colorado is just not hitting!  As for the Astros, they have had a surprisingly tough start to this season and also have struggled at the plate but yesterday's game is a sign of things to come!  Houston won 12 to 4 yesterday and had 6 extra-base hits including 3 homers while the Rockies had just 1 extra base hit - a 2-run homer by McMahon in the first inning.  The Astros scored the next 12 runs in that game after that McMahon bomb.  In the pitching match-up today Valdez has pitched less so far this season but his ERA is half of Gomber's ERA plus he has allowed no homers while Gomber has already allowed 4 long balls!  Also, Valdez dominated in his 2nd start after struggling some in his first start.  Gomber had an ERA of at least 5.50 each of the last two seasons while Valdez entered this season 40-23 the last 3 seasons and with an ERA right around the 3.00 mark!  Another road blowout expected here per our computer math model.  Lay it as, just like yesterday, the Astros roll big again! 

ASA top play on LA Clippers +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 PM ET - We are backing the Clippers today and will grab the generous points against the Mavericks. I’ll be honest I prefer this bet if Kawhi Leonard does NOT play for the Clippers as he’s clearly not himself at this point in time. Without Leonard in Game 1 the Clippers offense and defense was much better than it’s been with him on the floor. Specifically, on offense where the ball was moving much better and didn’t stop with him in isolation sets. Either way, we expect a very tight Game 4 in Dallas. The Mavs are 26-16 SU at home but have an ‘average’ point differential of +3.8PPG which is 14th in the NBA. The Clippers have an identical road record of 26-16 SU with the 5th best average Margin of Victory at +3.2PPG. The Clippers were 19-13 SU this season when coming off a loss with a +2.3PPG point differential. These two teams have slowed down dramatically in terms of field goal attempts and pace of play which makes the points and this dog that much more attractive.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -9 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - We are obviously laying a premium price here with the Celtics, but our numbers suggest a double digit win by the visitor. Miami won Game 2, but it took a historically great 3-point shooting night to notch that W. The Heat set franchise playoff records with the number of 3’s made (23) and 3PT% at 53%. We are expecting a sharp regression in Game 3 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the NBA allowing just 35.4%. Miami is 12th in the league in 3PT% at 37.2%. Boston also had two starters play one of their worst statistical games of the season with Jrue Holiday and Porzingis struggling. The Celtics are 14-4 SU coming off a loss this season, which doesn’t translate when they are favored by 9.5 points, but their average MOV in those games was +12.3PPG, which does. Miami was slightly better than average at home this season with a 23-19 SU record, but they had a low +/- of +2.4PPG. Boston was the best road team in the NBA this season at 27-14 SU with a +7.5PPG average point differential. The Celtics won on this court twice this season already and one of those wins came by 33-points. Lay it with a motivated Celtics team.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30 PM ET - If we examine the big picture for the Bucks, it’s not as rosy as one might think. They are already paying two previous coaches a ton of money and are now stuck with Doc Rivers who is vastly overrated. The roster when healthy is a good one, but without Giannis (30PPG, 11.5RPG, 6.5APG, 1.1BPG) they have too many deficiencies on both ends of the court. There is a good chance Khris Middleton doesn’t play tonight, or if he does, he will not be close to 100%. The young Pacers were clearly nervous for Game 1 as it was a first-time playoff experience for many on the roster and it showed in a 109-94 loss. Then in Game 2 they settled in and dominated the Bucks in the second half for a 125-108 victory. Back at home we expect the home crowd to be electric and the young Pacers will feed off that energy. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 13-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 5-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. The Bucks have no answer for Siakam who torched Milwaukee for 36 and 37 points in the first two games. Easy call here with Indiana in a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans looked good in the opener of this series and the Thunder looked like a young team lacking playoff experience. New Orleans covered rather easily and could have stolen Game 1 had they hit a few open 3’s they missed late in the game. The Pelicans attempted 96 field goals in the game and dominated the glass with 52 rebounds versus 44 for OKC. The Thunder shot 44% overall and 31% from deep but had two quarters with 20 or less points. I originally liked the Thunder in Game 1 with the Pelicans coming off two huge emotional games then having to travel. But the Pelicans proved their 28-15 SU road record this season isn’t a fluke and with the G1 cover they are on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a road underdog. New Orleans also has a strong history when coming off a loss at 21-12-1 ATS with an average +/- in those games of +6.3PPG. OKC clearly has some strong home court statistical support but given the fact that the Pelicans shot poorly in the opener and still nearly won outright has us on New Orleans here. Four of the last five in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Grab the digits.

#962 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - Sixto Sanchez is slated to get the start here for the Marlins but he is really just an opener.  That being said, we are not concerned with the starting pitcher here as it is likely that Kyle Tyler could be in line to get significant work behind Sixto in this one. Marlins already have bullpen injury issues and that is why Tyler is being called up even though he struggled in his most recent outing at the AAA level.  Sanchez just now getting back from shoulder injuries in recent years.  Tyler hardly has any big league experience.  The Braves are expected to start Reynaldo Lopez here.  He has been fantastic this season with just 1 earned run allowed on 11 hits while striking out 18 in 18 innings!  There is also a great disparity between these two lineups!  Marlins have a .321 slugging percentage this season while the Braves have a .471 slugging percentage this season!  Atlanta is 16-6 this season and 12 of the 16 wins have been by at least 2 runs!  Marlins are 6-19 this season and 16 of their 19 losses by 2+ runs!  Miami is just 2-10 in evening games this season.  Atlanta has feasted on sub-par competition this season going 11-2 against teams with a sub-.500 record!  Atlanta enters this game on an 8-1 run.  Miami has scored just 1.7 runs per game in their last 6 losses.  Atlanta has scored 6 runs per game in last 8 wins.  6 to 2 sounds about right to us in this one and the Braves have outscored Miami 25 to 8 in the 4 wins in their 4-1 record against the Marlins this season.  That is an average score of 6 to 2 as well.  Another mismatch here and the Marlins have been shutout in each of the first two games in this series as well.  The Marlins just don't have the bats to keep up here.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to invest at a relatively low price in the -125 range with the Braves.  Lay it!

#927 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 9:38 PM ET - The Orioles are not only 15-7 this season, 14 of their 15 wins have been by 2 or more runs.  There is no hesitation for us in laying the 1.5 runs here.  Also, Baltimore is hot as they have won 7 of 8 games!  The Orioles are hitting much better than the Angels this season plus they have the pitching edge here too.  Baltimore's Grayson Rodriguez is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA this season!  The Angels Griffin Canning is 0-3 with an 8.05 ERA this season!  The Orioles have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 9 games.  LA has averaged 1.8 runs per game in their last 5 games, all defeats!  Not only have the Angels lost 5 straight games, they also have lost 10 of 13 since their 6-4 start this season.  11 of 14 Los Angeles defeats this season have come by a multi-run margin.  The Orioles full season slugging percentage is about 100 points higher than that of the Angels who have Trout and Ward and O'Hoppe in their lineup but very little else up and down the lineup!  The Orioles will pull away as this game goes on.  The Angels just don't have the bats to keep up here.  Big edges in this one and a road blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a plus money price in the +105 range with the Orioles.  Lay the 1.5 runs here!

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +1.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Pacers looked like a bunch of young kids that never had a taste of playoff basketball in the first half against the Bucks. Milwaukee was up 69-42 at halftime with Dame Lillard going off for 35-points. Indiana played much better in the second half, outscoring the Bucks 52-40 while holding Lillard scoreless in the second half. Now that the Pacers have the jitters out of the way we expect them to win Game 2 in Milwaukee who will again be without Giannis. Indiana has won 4 of the last six meetings with Milwaukee and they own the best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 23-11-1 ATS record and an average +/- in those games of +4.8PPG. The Bucks have a losing spread record when coming off a win of 23-26 ATS with a plus/minus of +2.7PPG. Milwaukee is not a good defensive team so don’t expect them to hold the Pacers to 40% shooting again or 21% from Deep. Take Indiana in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +3.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:30 PM ET - The T’Wolves were disrespected in Game 1 with an opening line of -1.5 and were coming off a loss to the Suns so they clearly got up for the opener in a resounding 120-95 win. We like the Suns to rebound from that G1 loss and even this series at one win apiece. Phoenix had won 3 straight against the Wolves in the regular season with all of those wins coming by 7+ points. In the regular season finale on this court the Suns won by 19-points. In Game 1 the Wolves got a monster effort from Anthony Edwards who poured in 33 points on 14 of 24 shooting. ANT is obviously capable of those types of performances, but we like the Suns to make adjustments in Game 2 and force him to give up the ball early in the offensive set. Phoenix got a big game from KD who scored 31 and grabbed 7 boards but Booker was relatively quiet with 18-points. Bradley Beal scored just 15 after scoring 36 vs. the Wolves in the last regular season game. The Suns closed out the regular season with 4 straight road wins against Playoff teams and this veteran group will not be intimidated by the moment. The Suns 9-1 ATS streak in this series continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7 vs. LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET - The Nuggets had a long layoff going into Game 1 and it showed as they got off to a slow start and trailed early by as many as 12 points. Denver pulled together and dominated the last 3 quarters of the game. That makes it 9 straight wins for the Nuggets over the Lakers and there is not reason not to expect that trend to continue here. The Lakers are bad defensively, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency as they allow 1.154-points per possession. Since the All-Star break the Lakers rank 23rd in defensive Net rating and have allowed the 3rd most points per game in that time frame at 120.3PPG. Offensively the Lakers are ‘average’ in terms of offensive efficiency ranking 15th in the NBA. As we previously mentioned, Denver has owned the Lakers with 9 straight wins, they rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are 34-8 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Since the beginning of last season, the Nuggets are 78-17 SU at home +9.8PPG. LBJ and AD are soft like warm ice cream and both were dinged up a little in game 1 so don’t expect peak effort here. Lay it with Denver.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - The young Magic had a fantastic regular season at 47-35 SU, but were 29-12 at home. On the road they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. In Game 1 the Cavs won by 14-points and they didn’t even play as well as we expected. The big edge the Cavaliers enjoyed in the opener and will not change here is their size and advantage on the board. Cleveland grabbed 54 rebounds compared to the Magic’s 40. We did expect the Magic to struggle offensively, and they did with only 32 combined points in the 2nd and 3 quarters. For the game the Magic shot just 33% overall and they may shoot better here but the Cavs are also going to improve over their Game 1 performance. Let’s lay it again in Game 2 with Cleveland.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have top 10 efficiency ratings in both offense and defense and are a team capable of coming out of the West statistically. But the reality is that they haven’t played up to those expectations lately with a 5-6 SU record and are now in trouble without Zion Williamson for the foreseeable future. The Pels are coming off two huge emotional home games just to get into the Playoffs and will have a tough time getting up for this Game 1. OKC is well rested, rank 3rd in offensive efficiency, 4th in defensive efficiency, are 33-8 SU at home and win on their own court by an average of +13.3PPG. OKC is 23-12 ATS as a home favorite this season with an average +/- in those games of +15.2PPG. The Thunder have won two straight in this series versus the Pelicans and 4 of the last five. We are backing the round 1, big home favorite in this matchup which has produced steady profits for 10+ years.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -13.5 vs Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - As soon as the Heat vs Bulls game went final I was immediately poised to bet on the Celtics at home minus the points. Boston opened briefly at -12.5 and I was all in. Clearly the line has been adjusted slightly but we still feel there is value with the Celtics. Boston was in cruise control late in the season as they had home court wrapped up and focused on staying healthy down the stretch. Boston was the best team in the NBA the entire season and has the deepest team in the league. The Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. They had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. They won at home by an average of +15.2PPG. The Celtics were near unbeatable at home and owned a 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. In February the C’s were favored by -8-points in Miami so this line isn’t as high as it seems. Miami lost Jimmy Butler to a knee injury in the Play-In games and don’t have enough weapons to trade baskets with Boston. The Heat used a zone defensive effectively against the 76ers and Bulls but those two teams rank 23rd and 18th in team FG%. The Celtics have the 8th best team FG% in the NBA and the 2nd best 3PT% so the Heat zone isn’t going to work in this one. Big favorites in Round 1 have done historically well with a 59% cover rate and we expect the Celtics to make quick work of the Heat who upset them in the Playoffs a year ago.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 9:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the Pelicans as a home dog here. We’ve seen it happen a million times, when a Super Star gets injured, in the very next game, someone shines in their absence. New Orleans is coming off a very tough home loss to the Lakers (outscored by 15 at the FT line) and will bounce back here. Sacramento on the other hand is off a huge win over the Warriors who eliminated them from the postseason last year. These two teams met in Sacramento on April 11th in a ‘must win’ for both teams and the Pelicans never trailed in a 12-point win. The Kings were -1.5-points in that game at home and are now favored on the road? This is a matchup problem for the Kings as they’ve lost 5 straight times this season to New Orleans. The Pelicans are far superior defensively with the 7th best defensive efficiency compared to the Kings who rank 15th. We are expecting a close game throughout but like the Pelicans to get it done at home.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 9:30 PM ET - The Hawks have the worst defense in the playoffs, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession and 120.5PPG. On the road their defense is even worse, and they lost road games this season by an average of -5.4PPG. The Bulls were 20-21 SU at home this season with a negative differential of minus -0.2PPG but 6 of their most recent 7 home losses have come against some of the best teams in the NBA. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the Hawks pulled the upset as a +2-point underdog on this floor 113-101. The Bulls had a horrendous shooting night while the Hawks shot lights out. We expect Chicago to shoot much better this time around against a Hawks defense that is 28th in opponents FG% overall and 3PT% defense. Atlanta is 10-17 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -8.1PPG. The Bulls have a losing ATS record as a home favorite but they do have a positive point differential of +2PPG. The Hawks are without Jalen Johnson which is a huge loss for them even though they get Trae Young back. The Bulls had a few impressive wins late in the season against the T’Wolves, Knicks and Pacers and we expect that momentum to carry over to this game. Lay it with the Bulls.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -2 vs Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - If this game is like the last three in this rivalry it’s going to be close, but we like the veteran Warriors to pull out a win on the Kings court. The last three meetings have been decided by 1-point each with the Kings winning the last two games. Sacramento had their full complement of players for both of those W’s with Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk who are out here. The Warriors come into this game having won 10 of their last twelve games and have the 4th best Net rating (+9.1) in the NBA over that 12-game stretch. The Kings on the other hand have the 13th best Net rating at +3.8 and are 5-7 SU. Golden State is 25-16 SU on the road this season with the 4th best average point differential at +4.5PPG. The Kings are 24-17 SU at home with the 17th rated average point differential at +2.2PPG. With their shortened rotation the Kings have to rely heavily on Domantas Sabonis who has struggled when facing the Warriors and Draymond Green in the past. Golden State is peaking at the right time and we expect them to move on tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -14 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 1:10 PM ET - The Hawks are locked into the 9-10 matchup with the Bulls no matter what the outcome of this game. It will be much more important to get rest and stay healthy for that game. Indiana is treating this game like a Game 7 as a loss could potentially send them to a play in situation as low as the 8 seed. A win for the Pacers and they are guaranteed a top 6 seed. What makes the Pacers a more attractive large favorite than some of the other big chalks today in the NBA is the fact that they can put up a big offensive number here. Indiana is 2nd in offensive efficiency at 1.208PPP and scored 122.9PPG on the season. They are 25-15 SU at home this season and win on their home court by an average of +6PPG. Atlanta has struggled on the road this season with a 14-25 SU record and an average negative differential of minus -4.7PPG. Indiana has put up 157, 150 and 126 points in three games against the Hawks this season who have the 27th rated defensive efficiency rating in the league. The last two Pacer wins against the Hawks have come by 34 and 18-points.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs New Orleans Pelicans – 10 PM ET - Both teams have a ton to play for as far as seeding is concerned in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are trying to hold on to the 6th seed, while the Warriors are looking to move up from the 9th. Scheduling clearly favors the Warriors here who are off an easy win last night vs. Portland while the Pelicans are coming off a huge win in Sacramento last night. Golden State is 9-6-1 ATS when playing without rest this season with an average +/- of +6.1PPG. New Orleans is 7-5 ATS this season when playing without rest but the scheduling situation warrants a bet against them. Golden State looks like a team on a mission with a 9-1 SU record their last ten games, 4 of which have come against other playoff bound teams. New Orleans has won 3 straight, all on the road but this will also be their 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days. Golden State has won and covered 3 of the last four meetings with the Pels and we like them by 8+ points here.

#953 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7 PM ET - The Braves are off a loss and have not lost B2B games this season.  Not only that, it was a 16-4 loss and this was after Atlanta started the season 7-3 and all 3 losses were by just a single run.  Atlanta will be very focused today after being on the wrong end of a rare bad beatdown in their most recent game.  The Marlins are off a win but that was just their 2nd win of the season as they lost 10 of 11 to start the season.  Also, prior to a 3-2 loss in the most recent defeat, Miami was on a run in which, since their season opener, each of their next 9 losses had all come by 2+ runs.  We have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs here even though Max Fried is off to a rare bad start to this season.  If he struggles here, the Braves have a rested bullpen as they had a rainout Wednesday and then Thursday they used just 3 relievers over 4 innings and their best bullpen guys are rested and ready here.  Trevor Rogers, the Marlins starter, has also struggled early this season and the Miami bullpen behind him has one of the worst WHIPs (1.62) in the majors so far this season.  The big key here is at the plate as the Braves are hitting .303 for the #1 batting average in the majors while the Marlins are hitting .204 for the worst batting average in the National League.  Atlanta gets back on track after the ugly loss as they outscored the opposition by an average score of 6.9 to 4.3 over their first 10 games.  The Marlins last 10 losses have been by an average margin of 3.9 runs!  Miami has been held to 2 or less runs in 5 of last 6 losses and now, facing the hottest lineup in the majors, the Braves will pull away as this game goes on.  The Marlins just don't have the bats to keep up here.  Big edges in this one and a road blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to invest a pick'em price in the -115 range with the Braves.  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -2.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Celtics have nothing left to play for as they have the #1 overall seed locked up through the NBA Finals. New York on the other hand has plenty to play for as they sit in the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference and could get the #2 seed if they win out or even fall back to the #6 or #7 if they lose out. Because of the circumstances you have to ignore the Celtics season dominance of the Knicks as they’ve won all 4 meetings with New York. Boston is going to sit players in this game (potentially Brown, Holiday, Tatum, Porzingis and Horford) and will waive the white flag early once they fall behind. The Knicks continue to get stellar play from PG Jalen Brunson (averaging 34PPG over his last 10 games) and now have Anunoby back in the lineup after missing several weeks with an injury. We love the Celtics depth but you can’t sit 3-5 of your starters and still expect to win in the NBA. New York clearly shouldn’t be favored on the road here, but the number tells us they are favored for a reason. Bet the Knicks.

#978 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Yankees favored by a little over -200 on the money line so, of course, the value way to look at this match-up is the run line and what a value it is!  This match-up is featuring the team with the best record in the league against the team with the worst record thus far as the 10-2 Yankees wrap up their 3-game set with the Marlins.  The Yankees are 10-2 this season and the Marlins are 1-11 thus far.  Yankees have a fantastic 2.48 team ERA on the season while Miami has a 5.17 team ERA on the season.  Specifically about the starters here, the Marlins send Ryan Weathers to the mound and he has a 6.14 ERA in his 22 innings since coming to Miami from San Diego during last season.  He has walked 17 batters in 22 innings and that includes command issues already this season as well.  New York's Stroman on the other hand has allowed no earned runs and only 7 hits in his 12 innings on the mound so far this season. He is very happy to be back home as he is a New York native and always wanted to wear the Yankees pinstripes!  He already had his home debut versus the Blue Jays and dominated them.  He should have no trouble with this struggling Marlins lineup.  Miami is hitting just .204 this season and has scored an average of only 3 runs in their 11 losses.  The Yankees are hitting .247 this season but with a slugging percentage near .400 compared to the Marlins near .300 slugging percentage! Also the Yankees have scored an average of 6 runs in their 10 wins this season.  6 to 3 (and at least a 2-run margin) sounds about right to us here!  Huge edges here and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a pick'em price in the -110 range with the Yankees.  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic - points vs Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - After the Rockets colossal collapse against the Mavericks on Sunday which eliminated them from the postseason, we are betting they won’t show up for this game versus the Magic. We were very fortunate with our win on the Mavericks in that contest as the Rockets led from start to finish and were up by as many as 22-points at one time. It was a demoralizing loss to their in-state rival and now their season is essentially over. Orlando on the other hand still has plenty to play for as they currently sit 3rd in the East and could move up or even down depending on how they finish the season. Orlando is 18-20 SU away on the season and owns the 7th best defensive efficiency rating on the road as they allow just 1.140-points per possession. After winning 11 straight games the Rockets have now lost 5 straight and 3 of those came at home. Houston got off to a fantastic start at home this season but are now just 12-9 SU their last 21 on their home court. Orlando’s defense is top tier, ranking 8th in defensive net rating in their last 5 games, the Rockets are 30th or last in the NBA over that same 5-game stretch. Looking closer at both teams’ most recent 5-games we see the Magic rank 9th in overall Net rating, the Rockets rank 30th. We don’t see a team that is playing this poorly to all of a sudden rise to the occasion tonight in this meaningless game for them. Lay it with Orlando who wins this one going away.

#957 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:40 PM ET - Arizona is off a tough series at Atlanta but, prior to dropping the finale of a series with the Yankees and then struggling with the red hot Braves, the Diamondbacks were 4-2 on the young season. Now they go from facing one of the best teams (Braves) to facing one of the worst (Rockies). Colorado is 2-8 this season and the Rockies already lost 3 of 4 at Arizona to start this season. However, it wasn't just that the Rockies lost 3 of 4, it was the fact Colorado was outscored by an aggregate of 32 to 14 in that series! On the season, the Diamondbacks have a 3.90 ERA compared to a 7.50 ERA for the Rockies. Additionally, when one looks at the two starting pitchers here, it is evident that Arizona has a huge edge. Zac Gallen is 2-0 with an 0.82 ERA on the season. He'll be on the hill for the Diamondbacks here while the Rockies turn to a struggling Kyle Freeland. The Colorado left-hander has been crushed in both his starts and those were each on the road and now he makes his first home start of the season at hitter-friendly Coors Field! He is allowing 3 earned runs per inning on the season after two starts - yes, a 27.00 ERA! Arizona is hitting .274 on the season and holding opponents to a .240 batting average. Colorado is hitting .240 on the season and their pitchers have an opponents batting average of .312 so far this season. Huge edges here and a road rout is our call. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a very reasonable price in the -120 range with the Diamondbacks. Lay it!

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks (-) vs Houston Rockets, Sunday 3:40 PM ET - The Mavs have 9 of their last ten games and 13 of their last fifteen. They have done it with defense as they have one of the best defensive Net ratings since the All-Star break. Since the ASB they have an average +/- of nearly 7PPG. Houston was red hot with an 11 game winning streak and looked like a team that could sneak into the 10th spot in the Western Conference. But a 4-game losing streak has essentially eliminated them from post season contention. The Rockets haven’t been competitive in their last four games with an average loss margin of 16PPG. These two teams met in Houston on March 31st with the Mavs a 4-point favorite on the road. Dallas won that game by 18-points. The Mavs have won 5 of the last six meetings and they will get another big win here.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this assessment on this game as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. The Suns are rested as their last game came on April 1st, a win in New Orleans. Phoenix is facing a brutal 3-game stretch coming up against Western Conference contenders which makes this game extremely important. The Suns are also 14-6 SU with an average +/- of +6.4PPG when they hold a rest advantage over their opponents. Cleveland is 5-7 ATS when playing without rest and has a negative point differential in those games of minus -3.2PPG. When we evaluate each teams last ten games we find the Suns have a +3.0 Net differential, the Cavs are minus -5.2 AND the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule over that 10-game span. In this must-win situation we like the Suns by double-digits.

#910 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over San Francisco Giants, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - Even though Kyle Harrison is off a decent start to open up his season, he gave up some hard-hit balls including a number of line drive outs plus many of his outs were through the air. If he does not keep the ball down more against this tough Dodgers lineup he is in trouble here. Also, he is still just a 22-year old that only made 7 starts last season and had a respectable, but not spectacular, 4.15 ERA. He will not be able to match Tyler Glasnow here. Thanks to the Dodgers having opened the season in South Korea against the Padres, this is already the 3rd start for Glasnow. So far he has allowed only 4 hits in 11 innings and he has held hitters to a paltry .216 batting average in his career. Last season 84% of the Dodgers wins were by at least a 2-run margin and no team in baseball had a better home record than their 53-28 mark. This is a match-up they should dominate. LA is hitting better than the Giants so far this season and SF pitching is getting hit at a .291 clip while Dodgers pitching is allowing only a .226 batting average! We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a very small price in the -105 money range with the Dodgers. Lay it!

ASA play on LA Clippers (-) vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Kings recently beat this Clippers team in Los Angeles as a +4-point dog, 123-107. Prior to that meeting the Clippers had won two games against the Kings 119-99 and 131-117. In the Kings most recent win over the Clippers though, they were basically at full strength with Monk and Huerter both available. Those two combined for 27 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists in that game. Both are out here with injuries and the Kings depth is a major concern. In their last five games the Kings have slipped in both offensive and defensive Net ratings and have a net differential of minus -1.1. The Clippers have run hot/cold in recent weeks and right now it looks like they are running hot with 3 straight wins, all on the road. In fact, the Clippers have won 5 straight away from home and 7 of their last eight on the road. This L.A. team has the 4th best average point differential on the road this season at +3.8PPG and hold a 25-14 SU road record. The Kings are below league average in home court point differential with a +1.4PPG average which ranks them 20th in the NBA. Both have plenty to play for as they jockey for playoff position, but the injury concerns for the Kings will be the difference here. The visitor has also covered 5 of the last six in this series. Lay it with the Clippers.

#663 ASA PLAY ON Georgia + the points over Seton Hall, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - We like UGA’s success and path through this NIT much more than Seton Hall. The Bulldogs had to go on the road and beat both Wake Forest and Ohio State, 2 teams rated higher than Seton Hall in KenPom’s rankings, while the Pirates played all 3 NIT games at home. The average rating of the teams Seton Hall has played in the NIT is 82nd (all at home) while Georgia’s opponents have an average ranking of 44th and 2 of those games were on the road. We’d be a bit concerned if Georgia was playing another road game without much rest but that isn’t the case as they’ve had a full week off since beating Ohio State in Columbus. They won those 2 road games with starting center Tchewa out (8 PPG / 6 RPG) with an illness (played 5 minutes vs OSU and didn’t play vs WF) and he is back at full strength. The Dogs have been pretty solid away from home this year winning 7 games (away/neutral) while scoring 74.5 PPG and allowing 76.5 PPG. They do have a negative PPG margin away from home, but as you can see it’s close. Seton Hall has played only once away from home since March 2nd and that was in the Big East Tourney at MSG in New York City which is only 17 miles from campus. The Hall wasn’t great away from home this year scoring just 67 PPG while allowing 74.5 PPG and their shooting percentage dropped more than 5% on the road (42%). Georgia has been undervalued down the stretch covering 7 straight games and as a dog this year they are 12-8 ATS. We have this game power rated closer to pick-em so we’ll take the value with a surging Georgia team.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls + the points vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:10 PM ET - We like the way the Bulls match up with the Timberwolves as they have the size and depth with Vucevic and Drummond to deal with Gobert and Reid in the paint. Chicago is the 10th best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA compared to the Timberwolves who rank 26th. The Wolves average 324.4 defensive rebounds per game, the Bulls average 32.6. Minnesota has won 4 straight games and are coming off a big win over the Nuggets a few nights back. The Bulls are off a tough loss to Brooklyn and have lost 4 of their last five but two of those came against the red hot Rockets and the Celtics. Chicago beat this Wolves team in early February by 6-points in OT. The Bulls have won 4 of the last 6 meetings with Minnesota. The T’Wolves have another big Western Conference game on deck versus the surging Rockets and may look past this Bulls team. The line is inflated and we will grab the value with the Bulls and the points.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke - the points over NC State, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We were wrong on Duke Friday night as we thought Houston would really limit them offensively which they did with the Devils scoring only 54 points. Problem was, Houston lost their top offensive player and one of the best guards in the nation, Jamal Shead, to an injury in the first half and they could get nothing going offensively after that. We pretty confident that injury cost the Cougars the game (lost 54-51). Either way, we’re now getting solid line value with Duke in this spot vs a team they’ve faced twice this season. Just 2 weeks ago in the ACC tourney, the Blue Devils were an 11 point favorite vs this NC State team and now they are laying only 6.5 on a neutral court. When the faced off @ NC State the number was the same as it is here with Duke as a 6 to 6.5 point true road favorite. The 2 teams split their games with Duke winning at NCSU by 15 and then losing by 5 in the ACC tournament. In their loss 2 weeks ago, Duke shot just 5 of 20 from deep (25%) while the Wolfpack hit 44% of their 3’s which was the difference in the game. Duke is the much better offense and better shooting team by quite a wide margin (13th best 3 points shooting team in the country / NCSU is 134th) so we expect those tables to turn here. In the 2 games Duke outrebounded NC State in both and had fewer turnovers in the 2 games combined. If the shooting gets back to form where the Blue Devils should hold a decent edge, they should cover this number. NC State is a bit fortunate to be here as Marquette was a terrible 4 of 31 (13%) from 3 point land with the majority being wide open looks. Just a bad shooting night for the Golden Eagles. Defensively they held the Pack to under 1.00 PPP but just couldn’t make an open shot. Speaking of 3 point variance, in their 3 NCAA tourney games, Wolfpack opponents (Texas Tech, Oakland, and Marquette) have combined to make only 23 of 97 shots from deep (23.7%). That’s against an NCSU defense that ranks 280th defending the arc. We anticipate the Devils drastically improving those numbers on Sunday. Duke gets a shot at some fairly quick revenge here and NC State is now officially overvalued on their 8 game winning streak. Lay it with Duke.

#653 ASA PLAY ON Clemson + the points over Alabama, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET - We went against Bama on Thursday night when they faced UNC. The Tide pulled out a tight 2 point win but the Heels shot just 38% overall vs a Crimson Tide defense that was rated by far the worst remaining in the Sweet 16 (104th in efficiency). The Heels attempted 11 more field goals and made 1 more FT but lost the game because of their poor shooting effort. Alabama shot 48% overall and 42% from beyond the arc and despite those shooting numbers which were much better than UNC’s their largest lead of the game was just 5 points. Bama is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and there is no way Clemson gets into a run and gun game with them. The Tigers are a slower paced team and have tamed a few other fast paced teams during this tourney. On Thursday they took down Arizona (fast paced and top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency) and led pretty much throughout. In fact, the Wildcats largest lead of the game was just 1 point. Prior to that Clemson rolled a very good Baylor team who ranked 6th nationally in offensive efficiency at the time. Their defense has been outstanding holding New Mexico to 56 points (Lobos average 81 PPG), Baylor to 64 points (Bears average 80 PPG), and Arizona to 72 points (Wildcats average 87 PPG). These 2 already met this season and Clemson beat Bama on the road by 8 points, one of only two home losses this year for the Tide. The Tigers have proven they can get it done away from home with 12 wins this season (road & neutral) including some very impressive wins @ Alabama, @ North Carolina, and @ Pitt. One of their road losses was a last second 1 point loss @ Duke in which the Devils made 2 FT’s with under 1 second remaining to win. These 2 teams have the exact same 24-11 record with each facing top 20 strength of schedules. We have these 2 rated dead even on a neutral court so the value is with the dog. Take Clemson.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Bucks and fade the Hawks. The Hawks are coming off a thrilling OT win at home over the Celtics on Thursday night and could be flat here with a shortened rotation. The Bucks meanwhile are off a pair of difficult losses to the Lakers and Pelicans. In the win the other night over the Celtics the Hawks got a huge game from Dejonte Murray who poured in 44-points, but it took him 44-shots to get there. The Bucks have two solid perimeter defenders in Beasley and Beverly who should be able to slow down Murray here. Milwaukee’s recent loss was especially tough as they held the Pelicans to 40% shooting overall and 25% from the 3-point line but the Pels benefitted from 34 trips to the FT line compared to the Bucks 19. Milwaukee is solid off a loss with a 17-9 SU record and an average +/- in those games of +4.5PPG. The Bucks have an overall losing ATS record on the road as a favorite at 12-15 but they do own a positive differential of +4.5PPG. Atlanta is 4-7 ATS as a home dog this season with a negative differential of minus -3.9PPG. The Bucks should enjoy a shooting advantage here with the 7th best FG% offense facing a Hawks D that ranks 28th in opponents FG% allowing 49.4% on the season. Milwaukee is 8th in 3PT% offense, the Hawks are 28th in 3PT% defense. Atlanta does not shoot the ball well either, ranking 20th in team FG% while the Bucks are 11th best in the NBA in FG% D allowing 46.9%. This line might be a little intimidating to you but consider the Celtics were just favored by -16-points here the other night. Lay it with Milwaukee.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings over the Dallas Mavericks, 10:10 PM ET - These same two teams recently met on this court and the Mavs handed the Kings a 132-96 beatdown. Dallas had an unusually hot shooting night 55% from the field and 56% from Deep. The Kings had a horrible shooting night at 39% overall and 37% from the 3-point line. These two teams are shooting roughly 48% from the field for the season, so you can see the disparity in the last game compared to ‘average’ statistics. The Kings had beaten the Mavs twice this season prior to Tuesday’s game and we expect them to get immediate payback here. Sacramento is 19-10 SU coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of +3.2PPG. Dallas is great as a road favorite but just 5-11 SU as an away underdog. Sacramento has a positive point differential at home, the Mavs have a negative differential on the road. Take the Kings here.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -3.5 over Duke, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Houston is the type of team Duke will struggle with. The Cougs are an in your face defense that plays very physical. The rank 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed and 3rd in defensive turnover rate. This will be the best defense Duke has faced this season by quite a wide margin. UNC was the best defense (efficiency wise) in the ACC and they handled Duke twice fairly easily. The Heels don’t create turnovers however (outside the top 300). The ACC had one team rank in the top 25 in defensive turnover rate, Florida State, and in their game vs the Noles, Duke (finished 7th in the ACC in offensive turnover rate) turned the ball over on a whopping 25% of their possessions. Now they get a Houston defense that combines efficiency and turnover rate at the highest level. Duke rolled through their first 2 opponents, Vermont (13 seed) and JMU (12 seed), but they now take a huge step up in competition. Houston got their scare in the round of 32 topping a red hot Texas A&M team in OT. The Cougars led that game by 13 with just over 3:00 minutes remaining before the Aggies made their crazy comeback. Much is made of Houston’s outstanding defense, but their offense ranks 14th in efficiency so this team is very balanced. They are 32-4 on the season facing the 22nd most difficult schedule (Duke has faced the 69th SOS) and only 1 of their 32 wins has come by less than 4 points. Duke has faced 3 games this season vs teams in the top 10 per KenPom and they are 0-3 SU in those games (Houston ranked #2). The Devils beat up on the teams they should but they tend to struggle vs high level teams. They are just 5-4 SU in Quad 1 games this season while Houston is 17-4 SU vs Quad 1 opponents. On the similar note, Duke is 0-2 ATS as a dog this season (losses vs UNC & Wake) and 0-4 ATS getting points the last 2 seasons. In regards to the NCAA tourney, Duke beats lower seeded teams in the Dance but when they step up, the struggle. IN fact the last time Duke beat a higher seed in the NCAA tourney was 1994! This veteran Houston team was ousted in the Sweet 16 last year and they are on a mission this season. It’s a semi home game for Houston (in Dallas), they are the better, more physical team and we like them to get the win and cover on Friday.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers over the LA Lakers, 7:10 PM ET - We like the Pacers to bounce back here off a 26-point loss on Wednesday in Chicago to the Bulls. This is also a quick rematch as the Lakers recently beat the Pacers in L.A. 150-145. The Lakers are playing their 3rd straight road game and have won 5-straight games. Indiana has the 10th best average margin of victory at home at +5.0PPG and owns a 21-15 SU record on their home court this season. The Pacers have done well when coming off a loss this season with a 21-11 SU record and a +3.0PPG average MOV in those games. The Lakers have had their struggles on the road this season with a 14-20 SU record and a negative average point differential of minus -5.0PPG. The Lakers hold an advantage defensively with the 15th rated defensive efficiency rating compared to the Pacers who rank 25th. Offensively though the Pacers rank 2nd in OEFF, the Lakers are 16th. The Lakers fell into the trap of playing fast with the Pacers in the most recent meeting and when they do that here it won’t end well for them. Back the Pacers at home, off a loss, playing with revenge.

#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -4 over Alabama, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - UNC is the much more balanced team in this one ranking in the top 16 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While Bama has a great offense, their defense is by far the worst remaining in the Sweet 16 ranking outside the top 100 in both efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Tide simply wasn’t playing well down the stretch and they’ve been fortunate to get to the Sweet 16. Since mid February they rank just 49th nationally in team efficiency (per Bart Torvik) and 163rd in defensive efficiency. UNC ranks 9th and 10th in the nation per those 2 metrics during that time period. Prior to the Big Dance, Alabama had lost 4 of their previous 6 games and one of their two wins during that stretch was in OT at home vs Arkansas, one of the worst teams in the SEC. In the Dance they opened with College of Charleston whose defense ranked outside the top 200 in eFG% and 3 point FG % allowed which matches up very poorly vs the Alabama offense (Bama shot 60% for the game). Even with that, C of C lost but put up nearly 100 points on Bama (109-96 final). Over the weekend they topped Grand Canyon in what was a close game throughout (CG led with 6:00 remaining in the game) despite the Antelopes missing 14 FT’s and making only 2 of their 20 three point attempts and hitting only 32% of their shots overall! UNC comes in off 2 easy wins including topping Michigan State, easily the best opponent either of these 2 have played in the Dance, by a final score of 85-69. MSU’s defense was playing fantastic leading into that game (7th nationally in defensive efficiency since mid February and 11th for the entire season) but the Heels ate them up for 85 points on 1.20 PPP. What are they going to do to a bad Bama defense? On offense the Tide don’t create turnovers but they thrive on offensive rebounding for 2nd chances. Versus Grand Canyon the corralled 43% of their misses giving them a number of 2nd chance points which gave them the edge along with CG’s terrible shooting night. That won’t happen here vs a great rebounding team in UNC who ranks 6th nationally in defensive rebounding. UNC was 14-6 SU this season in road/neutral games while Alabama had a losing record in that situation. We’ve been hoping that Alabama would make it here so we had a chance to fade them vs a high level opponent. Take North Carolina to roll in this game.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - More money and tickets have come in on the Bucks, yet the line has fluctuated in the direction of the Pelicans. Both teams are off disappointing losses as the Bucks lost at home to the Lakers after blowing a lead late in that game. The Pelicans lost a crucial home game to Oklahoma City as the Thunder shot 53% in a 7-point win. Both teams are great when coming off a loss as the Bucks are 17-8 SU in that situation, the Pelicans are 18-9 SU. Milwaukee is 17-18 SU on the road this season with a negative overall differential at minus -0.2PPG. New Orleans is 20-14 SU at home with an average Margin of Victory of +5.4PPG. The Pelicans have been great against non-conference opponents with an 18-9 SU record and an average +/- of +7.7PPG. The Bucks versus the West is 15-12 SU +0.2PPG. We like the Pelicans here to get a win on their home floor.

#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah -6 over VCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - VCU has made a very impressive run through the NIT to this point but this is where it ends. Not only has this team been on the road for 3 NIT games already (this will be the 4th), but if we go back to the A10 tourney (Brooklyn, NY) and the end of the regular season this will be the Rams 8th straight road game. Those games have been crammed into a short time period as well. In fact, since the start of the A10 tourney, this will be VCU’s 7th straight game away from home in just 15 days. In the NIT alone, they’ve already traveled to Philadelphia, then Tampa on Sunday, and now Salt Lake City where they’ll play in high altitude for the first time this season. Not ideal for a team that has played 7 games in 15 days. Utah, on the other hand, will be playing their 3rd straight home game and just their 3rd game in 13 days since losing to Colorado in the Pac 12 tourney back on March 14th. VCU’s defense has carried them to this point holding Villanova & South Florida to 65 points or less but now they face a Utah offense that has scored 81 & 84 points in their 2 NIT games. At home the Utes are 16-2 on the year with 1 of those losses coming vs Sweet 16 participant Arizona and that loss was in triple OT. Utah hits over 49% of their shots and 39% of their 3’s at home while averaging 85 PPG. Tired legs made worse in high altitude for the Rams will be a problem both slowing down Utah’s offense along with trying to keep up and make shots on the other end. Lay it with Utah.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +1.5 at Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Mavs have a slight scheduling advantage here as both teams played last night but the Kings are playing their 3rd game in four days and 5th in seven nights. As we mentioned, Dallas is also off a game last night in Utah, but they had been off since the 21st prior. The Mavs are 21-12 ATS on the road this season and have been great playing without rest with an 8-3 ATS record and an average +/- of +3.3PPG. Sacramento on the other hand is 4-8 ATS when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. The Kings have beaten the Mavericks twice already this season so we know the Mavs will come into this game with a chip on their shoulders. Sacramento is only 6-5 SU their last eleven games going into Monday night and two of those wins were against the Spurs and one versus the Grizzlies. The Mavericks are 4-2 SU their last six on the road heading into Monday night. Dallas owns the 7th best EFG% in the NBA since the All-Star break, the Kings are 12th. The road team has covered 6 of the last seven in this series and we are betting that trend continues here.

#609 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia +9 over Ohio State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Georgia has had an impressive run this far in the NIT beating Xavier at home and then topping Wake Forest (the highest rated team in the NIT per KenPom) on the road on Sunday. We’re a little concerned that the Dogs have to play 2 days later on the road again, but this is a deep team that ranks 77th in bench minutes which helps in this case. In Sunday’s win UGA played 9 players double digit minutes and only 1 logged 30+ minutes. Wake was without starting guard Sallis in that game which obviously helped, however the Dogs were at a disadvantage as well with starting center Tchewa who was sick on Sunday. They are hoping he’s back and ready on Tuesday @ OSU. The Buckeyes are a bit banged up themselves. New head coach Diebler, who had the interim tag removed last week, gave them a day off after beating Va Tech over the weekend to try and recover from some of their ailments. Their best player, PG and leader Thornton (16 PPG), took a shot to the leg in the Va Tech win and he is questionable here. OSU won and covered vs the Hokies but they weren’t overly impressive getting outshot percentage wise from the field and from 3 point land, however the Bucks made 29 FT’s to just 16 for VT. Despite the large disparity at the line, OSU only won the game by 8 points. Georgia has proven a decent road team with near .500 record in true road games (5-6 SU) and only 2 of those losses came by more than 9 points (OSU -8.5 in this one) vs NCAA tourney teams Auburn & Mississippi State. OSU has won their first 2 NIT games by 5 points vs Cornell and by 8 vs Va Tech with a +21 made FT disparity (combined in those 2 games) yet both were close. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - We have to back the Bucks here at home as a small favorite. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home and are 28-6 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +7.4PPG. Going back even further the Bucks are 61-17 SU at home since the start of last season with an average MOV of +6.6PPG. With a low number on this game we need Milwaukee to win outright and they are finally healthy with Middleton, Giannis and Lillard on the floor. We are not blind to the fact that the Thunder are one of the best road teams in the NBA at 21-13 SU but we aren’t impressed with their last 3 wins on the road as they came against the Raptors, Grizzlies and Blazers. With the season winding down we like how the Bucks are playing and they look like a team that could contend to win it all this season. The Thunder are obviously very good but Milwaukee has owned them in recent years by winning 5 straight in the series and 7 of the last eight meetings.

#827 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* James Madison +7.5 over Duke, Sunday at 5:15 PM ET - Impressive performance by JMU on Friday dominating a good Wisconsin team despite the Dukes shooting only 41% overall and 29% from deep, well below their season averages. They were extremely aggressive defensively turning the Badgers over a season high 19 times from a team that averages less than 10 TO’s per game. The refs let them play in that game and if they do the same here, JMU has a very good shot at the straight up win. Duke doesn’t handle aggressive, physical play very well in our opinion. The 2 teams in the ACC who are similar to JMU as far as defensive turnover rate are FSU & Syracuse and Duke had 28 combined turnovers in their 2 games with those teams. On Friday the Blue Devils faced a Vermont team that rarely turns teams over (304th nationally) and they still turned the ball over 15% of their possessions. Vermont’s offense was terrible with a 0.78 PPP and they were dominated on the boards as we expected. Duke also made 18 more FT’s in the game which was obviously significant in a 17 point win. They won’t out physical JMU and their won’t be any domination on the glass for Duke in this game. Our one fear is the refs call this one tighter than the Wisconsin game (it is Duke and they tend to get the benefit of the doubt from the zebras) but even if that happens we still like James Madison to hang around. Duke wasn’t playing great entering this tourney (3-3 SU record their previous 6 games) but had a favorable draw with Vermont who isn’t overly physical and not a great shooting team this year. That’ changes on Sunday. JMU has only 3 losses this season and only one by more than 6 points. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -9.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8 PM ET - The Suns are finally healthy for the first time of the season and building continuity as they head to the playoffs. Phoenix has won 2 straight games handily with wins over the Hawks by 13 and the 76ers by 13-points. San Antonio is coming off a game against Memphis on Friday and they've struggled when playing without rest. The Spurs are 2-9 SU when playing without rest this season with a negative differential of minus -10.4PPG. When the Suns are facing a team and have a rest advantage they are 12-6 SU +4.9PPG. The last time the Suns were a road favorite they won by 22-points. Phoenix has two huge games looming against Denver and OKC so they had better win this game. We like the Suns in a big win here.

#796 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -6.5 over Oakland, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - We faded NC State on Thursday vs a very good Texas Tech team thinking they would have some lingering affects from their 5 games in 5 days ACC tourney run the previous weekend. Well they didn’t look sluggish as they rolled to a double digit win over the Red Raiders. NCSU now takes a big step down in competition from what they’ve been playing to this point. The Wolfpack have now won 6 straight games including wins over teams ranked 8th, 9th, 32nd, 71st and 86th per KenPom. They won all but 1 of those games by at least 8 points. Now they face an Oakland team ranked 130th and to put that in perspective that would put them as the 2nd worst team in the ACC ahead of only Louisville. We really respect the Grizzlies program and head coach Greg Kampe but they simply shot lights out from deep in their win over Kentucky. They hit nearly 50% of their triples and Jack Gohlke, who’s hitting 36% of this 3’s this season, attempted 20 and made 10 in the win. We don’t see them duplicating that here. They were facing a young Kentucky team with 5 freshman in their rotation playing in their first NCAA tourney. Now they face an NC State team that plays all juniors and seniors. Oakland is a fairly small team with 1 player that is over 6’7 and we don’t think they have anyone to match up with NCSU’s big man Burns who has averaged 16 PPG on 62% shooting during this 6 game run. We’re backed here by a strong round 2 NCAA trend that says teams that win in round 1 as double digit favorites are 4-18 SU (7-15 ATS) in their 2nd game dating back to 2005. NC State moves on to the Sweet 16 with a win and cover here.

#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -3.5 over Virginia Tech, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way OSU has played down the stretch this parting ways with head coach Holtmann. The players love interim coach Diebler and he was just named head coach moving forward so we sense some excitement with the players in this program. Since letting Holtmann loose, the Buckeyes have gone 7-2 with one of those losses coming by just 3 points vs Illinois in the Big 10 tourney. That was a game the Bucks led by 10 points midway through the 2nd half. They had a bit of a scare in the opening round of the NIT but held off Cornell 88-83. The Big Red hit 49% of their shots in that game to stay close but OSU dominated the boards with a +17 rebound margin. Saturday they face a Va Tech team that beat Richmond at home in the NIT opener but now must go on the road where they’ve won only 2 games the entire season. The Hokies have a PPG margin of -8 on the road this season and they have only 3 quad 1 wins this season with the most recent coming in January. OSU is 14-4 at home with 3 of their 4 home losses coming vs NCAA tourney teams (Wisconsin, Illinois, and Texas A&M). The Buckeyes average home score this year is 77-67 and we expect them to win and cover on Saturday. Lay the 4 points.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 10 PM ET - The Warriors will look to build on their momentum following a blowout home win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday night. Golden State looked very good in that game shooting 58% overall and 49% from Deep. That shooting success should carry over here against a Pacers team that rank 29th in opponents FG% allowing 49.9%. Not to mention Indiana doesn’t defend the 3-point line well as they allow foes to hit 36.9% of their 3PT attempts which ranks 20th. Indiana is obviously a great shooting team themselves, but the Warriors defense ranks 8th in opponents 3PT% and 12th in FG% defense. The Pacers have also struggled shooting in recent games with an EFG% of 55.2% which ranks 16th in the league over the last 5-games. Golden State is 17-9 SU/ATS when facing an Eastern Conference foe this season. Indiana is 10-14-2 ATS versus the Western Conference. Golden State went to Indianapolis in early February and destroyed the Pacers 131-109 and never trailed in the game. Expect another dominating performance here.

#774 ASA PLAY ON Houston -24 over Longwood, Friday at 9:20 PM ET - We know the Cougs will come out with their pants on fire so to speak as they are off a terrible, embarrassing 28 point loss in the Big 12 Championship game vs ISU, their worst loss since 2014. That provides great motivation for a team that is already one of the top few teams in the country. Houston’s defense should completely shut down this Longwood offense. The Cougars rank 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% allowed, and 3rd at creating turnovers. That’s all bad news for Longwood who doesn’t shoot it very well (240th in eFG%), doesn’t make many 3’s (5.6 per game – 330th nationally) and turns the ball over at a high rated. In fact, the Lancers ranked dead last in the Big South Conference in offensive turnover rate despite the fact the conference doesn’t have a single team ranked inside the top 75 creating turnovers. Much is made of Houston’s defense, but their offense ranks in the top 20 nationally in efficiency and they should have plenty of extra possession on the offensive glass and creating turnovers. Longwood’s defense ranks outside the top 200 in eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. Houston will put up points here. We highly doubt Longwood gets out of the 40’s in this game which means Houston won’t have to go crazy offensively to cover this game. Low to mid 70’s for the Cougs should be enough to get the cover.

#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -13.5 over Colgate, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Colgate won the Patriot League as they’ve become accustomed to but this is not one of Matt Langel’s better teams. They are ranked 144th per Ken Pom which is their lowest rating to end the regular season since 2018. Last year they were ranked 30 spots higher, made the NCAA tourney and got rolled by another Big 12 team Texas who won by 20 points. The Raiders lost all 4 games vs top 100 competition this season with 3 of those set backs coming by at least 17 points. There isn’t a single team in the Patriot League ranked higher than 260 (besides Colgate) so it’s been a long time since this team faced a high level opponent. Their strength of schedule is 340th and they faced only 6 opponents that fell into quad 1 or 2 this season and finished 1-5 in those games. Baylor is a top 15 team per KenPom and one of the best offensive units in the nation. Unlike Colgate the Bears faced 19 Quad 1 teams this year and finished those games with a winning record (10-9). They are the 6th best 3 point shooting team in the nation with 3 guys in the rotation hitting over 41% from deep. They are also the 6th most efficient offense in the country averaging 1.22 PPP. The Raiders have very solid numbers guarding the arc, however is that because their defense is high level or because they faced mainly poor shooting teams. We’ll lean toward the latter. They didn’t face a single 3 point shooting team in the Patriot that ranked above 120th and the average 3 point percentage rank of the teams they faced in conference play was 235th. Colgate isn’t an overly efficiency offensive team this season (209th) and we just think they’ll have trouble keeping up in this game. We like Baylor to roll.

#755 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -7 over Samford, Thursday at 9:55 PM ET - One of the most popular underdogs in the first round is this Samford team. Because of that we’re getting some really solid line value with the Jayhawks here. We understand Kansas will be without leading scorer McCullar, however he’s been out for half of their last 12 games so it’s not as if they now have to learn how to play without him. The Jayhawks beat 2 tourney teams down the stretch without him topping Baylor and Texas. We get a high level program in KU coming off a terrible outing in the Big 12 tourney as they lost by 20 points to Cincinnati. They played that game without McCullar and starting center Dickinson (18 PPG / 11 RPG) but he is back in the line up for this game. We’re sure the KU players are hearing all of the rumblings about a possible upset, etc… and coming off a bad loss we look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder in this one. If they do, we know Kansas is obviously more talented than Samford. The Bulldogs were an exciting, fast paced team that won the SoCon this season. They faced 2 top 100 teams the entire season and lost to Purdue by 30 and lost to VCU, who did not make the tourney, by 10. They are a small team (349th in height) facing a big KU team that should completely dominate them on the boards. Samford does shoot the 3 ball well, however their 3 point shot percentage drops off drastically when they are away from home (43% at home and 34% on the road). They’ll need to be red hot from deep to have a shot here. In order for a team with lesser talent to have a shot to beat a heavyweight, they need to limit possessions and shorten the game. Giving the superior talent more possessions just gives them a chance to pull away. Samford is a go, go, go team with the 14th highest adjusted tempo in CBB. We don’t think that serves them well here. Take Kansas on Thursday night.

#734 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -4.5 over NC State, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The situation heavily favors Tech in this game. The Red Raiders beat BYU by 14 in the opening round of the Big 12 tourney and then lost to Houston last Friday. That means they’ve had nearly a full week to get rest and get ready for this one. NC State, on the other hand, played 5 games in 5 days and won the ACC Tourney to get into the Dance otherwise they were not in. They were underdogs in each of the last 4 games of that tourney and won each. Now playing on Thursday rather than Friday is not ideal for this Wolfpack team that isn’t very deep to begin with. Let’s keep in mind that prior to their 5 game stretch in the ACC tourney, the Wolfpack had only win 4 of their previous 14 games with 3 of those wins coming vs non NCAA tournament teams. Tech was a bit under the radar this year but this team is very good. They finished tied for 3rd place in the ultra tough Big 12 (tied with Baylor) behind only Houston & Iowa State, 2 top 6 teams nationally per KenPom. NC State finished with a losing record in a down ACC and wouldn’t be here at all if not for a 5 game run in the tourney. Texas Tech has better numbers both offensive and defensive efficiency along with better eFG% stats on both ends of the court. The Raiders get to the line more often as well and when they do they hit 78%. They also are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the country (37th) and they are facing an NCSU defense that ranks 246th defending the arc. Tech played the tougher schedule and has a fairly large advantage in efficiency margin despite that. Tech is the better team and in a much better situation. We’ll lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -2.5 vs Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets are on a 6-game winning streak and have won 8 of their last 10 games with the two losses to playoff bound Phoenix and the Clippers. Houston has been solid all season long at home with a 23-11 SU / 23-10-1 ATS record. The Rockets win at home by an average of +6.1PPG. Chicago is 3-3 SU their last six games and 6-4 SU their last ten. On the road this season the Bulls are 16-18 SU with a negative loss margin of minus -3PPG. The Bulls are beat up right now with several players potentially out for this game including Caruso and White. Offensively these two teams have very similar statistic but the Rockets hold a big advantage defensively. Chicago is 19th in offensive efficiency, the Rockets are 20th. Houston has the 6th best FG% defense in the NBA and the 3rd best 3PT% D. The Rockets allow just 1.128-points per possession which is the 7th best number in the NBA. The Bulls by comparison allow 1.161PPP which ranks 17th. The play here is on the Rockets.

#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -6.5 over McNeese State, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - Everyone seems to be on McNeese but we like this match up for the Zags. McNeese had played nobody this year with a 336th SOS. They have only played 2 top 100 teams all season and their big win early was vs Michigan and Wolverines ended up being terrible this year so not the huge win we thought it was at the time. McNeese has great defensive numbers, however they’ve played nobody with an offense like the Zags. In fact, not a single offense in the Southland Conference ranks in the top 200 in efficiency so the numbers are skewed. Same on offense for the Cowboys. Very good numbers but the Southland has one defense ranked in the top 200 in efficiency. Gonzaga ranks 9th nationally in offensive efficiency and they are the 2nd best shooting team in the nation at almost 52%. McNeese really thrives on creating turnovers which turn into extra possessions, however Gonzaga doesn’t turn the ball over (14th in the country in offensive turnover rate). The Cowboys are also one of the shortest teams in the Dance and we project Gonzaga will dominate the boards in this one. The Zags are off loss in WCC Championship game and 10 days off to put that behind them. Prior to that had won 14 of 15 including winning @ Kentucky in February. Mark Few is simply a great coach – 24 straight NCAA appearances – with an NCAA tourney record of 41-22 SU. The game is out west in Salt Lake City so Gonzaga should have a strong home court type advantage as their fans travel very well. We like this McNeese team but they haven’t played a single team anywhere close to as good as Gonzaga this year. This number seems light so we’ll lay the 6.5 points.

#738 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +1 over Oregon, Thursday at 4 PM ET - Like this bounce back spot for South Carolina after they were trounced by 31 points in the SEC tourney by Auburn. Teams in the NCAA tourney who entire off a 20+ point loss have done very well with a 23-10 ATS record. Because of that loss the Gamecocks have had an extra day to prepare while Oregon had to play 3 games in 3 days (Thurs – Sat) to win the Pac 12 tourney and grab an automatic bid, the only way they were getting into the Dance. After that grueling run in the conference tourney the Ducks now have to travel to the east coast (Pittsburgh) and play on Thursday which isn’t ideal. South Carolina was undervalued all season (23-10 ATS record) and they continue to be entering the NCAA tourney. Oregon was 16-18 ATS this year and because they made a solid run in their conference tourney this is close to a pick-em game when we feel the Gamecocks should be a larger chalk. These 2 teams played similar strength of schedule this year and South Carolina had better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. SC ranks in the top 85 in FG% allowed and Oregon ranks outside the top 300 in that key category. Both protect the ball well but South Carolina is the better rebounding team which should lead to extra possessions. Against good competition, the Gamecocks also held the edge with a 6-5 record vs Quad 1 teams and 11-5 overall vs Quad 1 & 2 opponents combined. Oregon had a losing record vs Quad 1 opponents and a losing record vs Quad 1 & 2 teams combined. South Carolina is the better team and in a better situation in basically a pick-em game. We’ll take it.