ASA Top Play NFL 10* on #320 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs, 3 PM ET - So by now you’ve heard everything there is to hear on this game and a majority of it has been Kansas City/Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid as underdogs, or in playoff games etc…They were in a very favorable scheduling situation last week against the Bills who were on a very short week. KC played well averaging 7.7YPP compared to the Bills 4.7YPP. But the Bills dominated the time of possession which means the Chiefs defense played 78 snaps. In comparison, the Ravens defense was on the field for only 46 snaps and will be the fresher of the two units. Speaking of defense, last week the Ravens rushed for 5.5 yards per carry and 229 yards overall against a Texans defense that was top 5 in the league in EPA per rush allowed. Kansas City ranked 27th in rush defense DVOA and 28th in EPA per rush allowed in the regular season. The Ravens were arguably the best/2nd best team in the league the entire season and rate as one of the greatest all-time teams in terms of DVOA rankings. This comes after facing the 2nd toughest strength of schedule in the NFL. Kansas City certainly didn’t look like the dominating Chiefs of the past this season despite playing one of the weakest schedules (21st) in the league. The Ravens are now playing their 4th straight home game heading into the Conference Championship game and teams in that situation are 7-1 SU dating back to 2004. In that same 20-year span, teams playing in the Divisional round or later and playing on the road for the second consecutive week are 13-41 SU. We won’t be swayed by the Chiefs recent two game winning streak as they benefitted from favorable weather and or scheduling in both games. Now the Ravens are the fresher team, at home and only laying 1.5-more points than the Bills were last week. The Ravens had the best overall Margin of Victory this season at +12.6PPG overall and +15.1PPG at home. Yes, betting against Mahome/Reid is a scary proposition but this Ravens team is better overall on both sides of the ball and over 60-minutes it will play out favorably for the home team.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -1.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 9 pm ET - The Kings have a clear scheduling advantage here with a day of rest compared to the Mavs coming off a game last night in Atlanta. Luka Doncic had a monster night scoring 73-points but was visibly drained in the 4th quarter. Not only is this the second night of a back to back but also the Mavs 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six. Dallas has not done well on the second night of a back to back with a 7-13 SU record dating back to the start of last season. The Kings were off last night and are coming off a big win in Golden State on Thursday night. The Mavericks haven't been great at home with a 13-11 SU record this season and are 6-8-1 ATS as a home dog since the start of last season. In the games they've been a home underdog since last year they have lost those games by an average of -4.9PPG. Sacramento is 20-12-1 ATS dating back to the start of 2022 as a road favorite with an average +/- in those games of +3.7PPG. Earlier this season the Kings beat the Mavs rather easily on this floor by 16 and we expect another double-digit win here.

#816 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Weber State -11.5 or -12 over Idaho State, Saturday at 9 PM ET - This game has blowout written all over it in our opinion. Weber State is just 3-4 in Big Sky play, they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 but they are still the #1 rated team in the league per KenPom. Three of their four conference losses have come by 2, 2, and 3 points. Their only poor performance was @ Montana on Monday where they lost by 15. It was bad spot for Weber with their 3rd game in 5 days and now they’ve had since Monday to rest and get ready and we expect a huge home effort on Saturday where they are 8-1 on the season. The Cats only home loss was vs Eastern Washington, who is currently 6-0 in conference play, by just 2 points in a game Weber State led by 13. EWU hit 54% of their shots in that game and 90% of their FT’s and still won by just 2 points. Weber, who is the Big Sky favorite, is in a must win spot at home and playing one of the worst teams in the league. Idaho State is 7-13 overall and just 2-5 in the league despite playing the 266th strength of schedule. They are playing their 2nd straight road game after losing @ Montana State by 7 earlier this week. That was a deceiving final score as the Bengals trailed by 17 in that game with just over 5:00 minutes remaining in the game. They are just 2-9 SU on the road this year and they have won only 8 of their last 43 road games! 7 of Weber State’s 8 home wins have come by double digits and they are averaging 86 PPG at home this year. They are facing that is rated 293rd which is the 3rd worst team Weber has faced this season and the Bengals only average 65 PPG on the road. Big win for Weber State on Saturday night

#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -4 over Kansas, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - Kansas continues to live on past laurels and remains vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are 16-3 SU but just 7-11 ATS. This team is simply not on the same level as past Kansas teams. They are 4-2 in Big 12 play but have played the easiest conference slate thus far already facing the 3 lowest rated teams in the league (WVU, Okla St, and UCF). They have actually lost to 2 of those teams getting topped by UCF and West Virginia on the road. The Mountaineers are the worst team in the Big 12, they have only 2 wins all season vs top 100 teams and one of those was a 6 point win at home vs Kansas. The Jayhawks have even shown some vulnerability at home struggling to get by TCU by 2 and Cincinnati by 5 on Monday. ISU is also 4-2 but they’ve played the much tougher Big 12 slate (4th SOS in conference play) and their 2 losses were both on the road in very tough venues Oklahoma & BYU. The Cyclones are a perfect 12-0 at Hilton Coliseum, truly one of the toughest places to play in college hoops. That includes a win over #1 Houston (per KenPom). Since the start of last season ISU is 25-3 SU at home including a 15 point win here over Kansas last season who won the Big 12 and was a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney. Last year’s KU team was definitely better than this year’s team and ISU’s team this year is better than they were last season. Iowa State’s defense is very high level ranking 3rd nationally in efficiency and they create turnovers on 27% of opponents possessions (#1 nationally) which is bad news for a KU offense that isn’t great at protecting the ball (132nd). It’s really tough to score on this ISU team allowing 61 PPG (6th nationally) and with the Cyclones averaging 85 PPG at home, you can see why 11 of their 12 wins at home have come by double digits. We project another double digit win here for Iowa State so we’ll lay this small number.

#888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over St Joes, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - This could be tabbed a must win for St Bonnies after losing 4 of their last 5 games including 2 straight on the road entering this contest. They are 2-4 in A10 play but still power rated as the 3rd best team in the conference per KenPom. Their most recent game was a particularly poor performance @ Duquesne and we expect a strong bounce back at home. In that 4 point loss to the Dukes, the Bonnies made only 27% of their shots, just 15% of their 3’s and 67% of their FT’s. Their season averages in those categories are 46%, 37%, and 78% respectively so it was just a poor shooting performance on the road and they still were in it to the end. STB also played that game without starting guard Adams-Woods who averages 14 PPG and leads the team in assists. He was sick on Tuesday and we would expect him back for this game. The Bonnies are catching St Joes coming off 3 straight wins including an upset @ UMass earlier this week. In that game STJ trailed by 13 points midway through the 2nd half and rallied to make a shot at the buzzer for a 1 point win. The Hawks last 2 wins have come by 2 points and 1 point and prior to their 3 game winning streak they had lost 4 of 5. Before their last second win @ UMass they had lost 3 straight road games. STJ relies very heavily in the 3 point shot and they are facing a St Bonnie defense that allows just 31% from deep (44th nationally). The Hawks hit nearly 50% of their 3’s in their 1 point win on Tuesday and we don’t expect them to be anywhere near as successful from deep tonight. Last season St Bonaventure was a 4 point favorite at home vs St Joes and won by 13. They’ve won 9 in a row vs the Hawks and the last time St Joes won @ St Bonnies was back in 2014 (9 straight losses at St Bonaventure). We like the home team in this must win spot.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +2 or +2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - This line is off, and the value clearly lies with the Warriors at home as an underdog. Golden State played last night but fatigue isn’t going to be a factor as they had 9-days off prior to that. Both teams' most recent opponent was Atlanta. The Warriors beat the Hawks by 22 last night as a 6-point home chalk. The Kings were favored by 8-points at home over Atlanta and won by 15. The outcomes aren’t what matter it’s the pointspread as Vegas is suggesting the Kings are a 2-point favorite on a neutral court. If we examine the three previous meetings this season, we find the Warriors were +1.5 and +3 at Sacramento and were favored by -7-points at home on November 1st. This is a big rivalry after last season’s playoff series and there is no way the Warriors should be home underdogs. Golden State’s Steph Curry has played extremely well against the Kings with a 50 and 41-point game against them in the last four meetings. If we go back to last season and the playoff series, Curry has averaged 33PPG vs. the Kings. Another recent schedule comparison is a Warriors home game against the Nuggets where they were a 4-point dog. Sacramento was also +4.5 points at Phoenix within the past 10-days. Golden State is 8-2 ATS as a home dog dating back to the start of last season. Grab the points as the wrong team is favored in this one.

#808 ASA TOP PLAY ON Sam Houston State -4.5 over New Mexico State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - After winning their first 3 games in CUSA play, Sam Houston State lost @ Liberty last weekend. They are 3-1 in league playing having faced the 2nd most difficult conference schedule thus far. The Bearkats have already faced CUSA’s 3 highest rated teams per KenPom and beat 2 of those teams, Western Kentucky & La Tech, at home. NMSU is also 3-1 but they’ve faced the league’s easiest conference slate thus far already facing the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference (besides themselves). The Aggies have also played only 1 road game in conference play which was a 10 point loss @ FIU, the 2nd lowest rated team in the league. Speaking of road games, New Mexico State is 0-7 SU this year in true road games losing by an average of 18 points per game. In a game with a tight spread, FT’s will most likely be key in this one. Sam Houston should have a huge edge at the stripe here as they get their often (22% of their points are FT’s – 48th most nationally) and New Mexico State fouls as much as any team I the country. The Aggies send teams to the FT line an average of 25 times per game (9th most nationally) and a whopping 27% of their opponents points come from the stripe (3rd most in the country). These 2 teams both came over to Conference USA from the WAC so they are familiar with each other. Last year SHSU was a dog @ NMSU and won by double digits. A year earlier the Bearkats were a home dog vs NMSU and again won by double digits. We really like the way SHSU has played against the top teams in the conference already this year and we expect a win and cover for the host in this game.

#732 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nevada -2.5 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Nevada won 15 of their first 16 games this season and now they’ve lost 3 straight so we look for a huge effort at home tonight. Their last 2 losses were both on the road and now they are back home where the Wolfpack are 9-1 this season and 24-2 SU since the start of last season. Nevada was favored by 4 at home vs CSU last year and won by 11 and going back further they’ve won 7 of their last 8 home games vs the Rams. Colorado State is coming off back to back home wins but they weren’t impressive in those games. It took OT for CSU to top a poor Air Force team as a 15.5 point favorite and then on Saturday they trailed UNLV for most of the 2nd half before taking their first lead with 2:30 remaining and pull out a come from behind 3 point win. The Rams are 0-2 on the road in conference play losing @ Utah State and @ Boise State, 2 teams ranked almost identical to this Nevada squad. The Wolfpack defense, which has been very good all season, was atrocious in their most recent game (a loss @ Wyoming) giving up their season high in points and shooting percentage. We expect a huge emphasis and bounce back on that end of the court tonight at home where they are allowing just 61 PPG on 38% opponents shooting. CSU’s overall offensive efficiency numbers are very good, however they’ve dropped off considerably since starting MWC play ranking 6th in the conference in efficiency. This is a huge game for Nevada, one of the favorites to win the MWC, as they are 2-3 in conference play and travel to New Mexico this weekend.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks have moved on from first year head coach Adrian Griffin after starting the season 30-13. The main reason for the firing was the Bucks lack of defense as they dropped from 4th in defensive efficiency from a year ago to 22nd this season. Interim coach Joe Prunty will take over in the short term as it looks like the Bucks will bring in vet Doc Rivers. Coaching won’t have a lot to do with tonight’s game, the players will. Milwaukee was just embarrassed on Jan 17th in Cleveland by 40-points, a 95-135 loss that is still fresh in their minds. Going back to December 29th, the Bucks beat the Cavs on their home court 119-111. In the most recent Cleveland win, the Cavs got a ‘unicorn’ night from George Niang who shot 13 of 14 from the floor in scoring 33-points. We are betting the short-handed Cavs don’t get another performance like that from Niang tonight in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 19-4 SU at home on the season with an average +/- of +7PPG. They have won 3 straight at home against quality competition in the Celtics, Warriors and Kings. Cleveland is playing very well right now with 8 straight wins, but other than the win against the Bucks, they haven’t beaten a team in that stretch of games with a winning percentage better than .524. Three of the Cavs last eight wins have come against the Wizard and Spurs who combined have 15 wins between them on the year. This one will get ugly early!

#688 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -1.5 over Davidson, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We were on St Louis last Friday and they lost @ VCU but we’re going back to the well with the Billikens at home on Wednesday night. Despite their loss @ VCU, as we stated in that game’s analysis we still feel STL is undervalued right now with their 8-10 overall record. They are finally healthy after having clusters of injuries this season to 4 of their top 7 scorers who have all missed time this season. They’ve been a full strength for just 3 games now and the 2 prior to losing @ VCU they played very well beating a good St Joes team at home and then took the best team in the A10, Dayton, to the wire on the road losing by just 5 points. Both these teams are 1-4 in conference play but STL has played the tougher slate (2nd SOS in conference play) already playing 3 of the 6 teams in the A10 that rank inside KenPom’s top 100. In their only home game at full strength, the Billikens topped a very good St Joe’s team that is 12-6 and ranks as the 4th best team in the Atlantic 10. Davidson has won only 1 conference game as well but they’ve played 3 of their 5 league games at home and already faced 3 of the 5 lowest rated teams in the A10. The Wildcats are not a good shooting team this year ranking outside the top 200 in both over shooting percentage and 3 point percentage and they’ve been a bit lucky with opponents making only 65% of their FT’s vs Davidson this season. STL is one of the better 3 point shooting teams in the country (top 40 in percentage) and at home they are even better hitting 42% of their triples. With this line set at around a pick-em, we like the Billikens to win this game at home.

#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON Charlotte -4 or -4.5 over UAB, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Charlotte is 8-1 at home this season and they are on a nice 5 game winning streak. During that 5 game streak they’ve beaten FAU and North Texas, 2 of the 4 teams rated in the top 75 nationally from the AAC conference. FAU is the top team in the league and currently ranked 26th by KenPom. The 49ers have been waiting for this game after losing at home in double OT to UAB last March. The Blazers were a top 50 team last year with a 29-10 overall record but their ranked 100 spots lower this year after losing 6 of their top 7 players from that team. UAB has won 8 of their last 9, however 6 of those games came at home and only 1 of those wins was vs a top 100 team. That was a 1 point win at home vs Drake. The other top 100 team the faced during that 9 game run was FAU who beat the Blazers by double digits. UAB does have a 3-2 SU road record but their 3 wins have come vs UTSA by 2 points (lowest rated team in the AAC), vs Middle Tenn State by 1 point (ranked outside the top 300), and vs Alabama A&M (one of the 10 lowest rated teams in the country). Charlotte has played a top 90 schedule this season (UAB outside the top 150 in SOS) yet the 49ers still have better shooting percentages on offense & defense. They have a huge edge defensively ranking in the top 65 in eFG% allowed and allowing just 64 PPG on the season (top 20) while UAB ranks outside the top 220 in eFG% allowed and they give up 75 PPG. Charlotte is outscoring their opponents at home by +14 PPG and they’ve won 30 of their last 38 home games. We like the 49ers at home vs the overvalued Blazers on Tuesday night.

ASA top play 10* on #572 Phoenix Suns -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - Phoenix is starting to jell now that they have a relatively healthy roster and look like the team many expected them to be this season. The Suns have won 4 straight games with an 18-point win at the Lakers, an 11-point win at Portland, a solid home win over the Kings and then a W at New Orleans. Indiana is playing their 6th straight road game and coming off a poor showing in Portland. The Pacers also lost by 8-points in Denver and by 27 in Utah on this road trip. Granted they did not have Haliburton for most of this trip, but he did play in their most recent game in Portland. Indiana has one of the worst road defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA as they allow 1.224-points per possession (27th). The Suns season statistics aren’t an accurate indicator for this team as the Big 3 of Beal, Durant and Booker have barely played together. Now that all 3 are on the floor we expect their numbers to improve dramatically including their 3-point percentage which is 37.6% and 9th best in the league. The Pacers are 23rd in the league in defending the 3PT line allowing 37.8%. The Suns were recently a 4.5-point home favorite against the Kings, the same line we have here. That same Kings team just hosted the Pacers and were 8-point favorites. That tells us the value is on the Suns in this home game at a bargain price.

#837 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wichita State +4.5 over South Florida, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Wait a minute? A team that has won 8 of their last 9 games (USF) is at home and facing a team that has lost 6 in a row (Wichita St) and the host is laying only 4.5 points? Looks way too easy to grab USF here and we’re siding with the dogs. Despite their records (Wichita is 8-9 / USF is 10-5) we have these 2 teams power rated dead even on a neutral court. The Shockers have played the MUCH tougher schedule (64th SOS) and 5 of their last 6 games have come vs top 100 opponents. They just gave Florida Atlantic (ranked 25th per KenPom) all they could handle on the road before losing by 9. Wichita led that game by 11 at half and the first lead FAU was able to grab in the 2nd half came with just 6:00 remaining in the game. While the Shockers have been playing high level opponents over the last month, USF has played 1 top 100 team since December 9th and their overall strength of schedule ranks outside the top 300. Their one game vs a top 100 opponent over the last month just happened to be on Thursday night when they pulled the 74-73 upset @ Memphis. It was a game that USF trailed by 20 points in the 2nd half and at that moment they had right around a 1% chance of winning the game according to KenPom metrics. They used a massive amount of physical and emotional energy making that huge comeback on Thursday and we feel a letdown is in order here. Despite Wichita playing a SOS over 200 spots higher than South Florida, the Shockers shoot the ball better on offense (45% to 43%) and allow a lower percentage defensively (42% to 43%). Last year Wichita was +1 in this game @ USF and won by 4. Now they are getting 4.5 points (opening line) and we give them a great shot at winning this one.

ASA play 8* on #555 Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - The Hawks are off a pair of buzzer beating wins in their last two games as Dejonte Murray hit a game winner on Wednesday in Orlando and did it again last night in Miami. They will suffer a letdown here against a rested Cavs team that is playing extremely well right now. Cleveland has won 6 straight games and is coming off an impressive 40-point win over the Milwaukee Bucks. All but one of the Cavs last six wins have come 9 or more points. The Hawks are playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the NBA when playing without rest with a 5-15 SU record their last 20. These two teams have met twice this season with the Cavs winning both by 8 and 23-points. Lay the short number with the Cavaliers.

ASA play 8* on #554 NY Knicks -7.5 vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - These two teams just completed a trade recently which sent Quickly and Barrett to the Raptors for Anunoby to New York. The early returns tell us the Knicks were the winner of that deal. Anunoby gives the Knicks the wing defender they so desperately needed and another viable scoring threat to go along with Brunson and Randall. New York has won 2 straight games and 8 of their last ten. The Knicks have won 6 of their last seven at home. The Raptors made another deal recently that sent former All-Star Siakam to the Pacers for Bruce Brown and draft picks. That trade did not make the Raptors better in the short-term but will help build the roster in the future. Toronto is 1-5 SU their last six games, 4-6 SU their last ten overall. They haven’t been good on the road with a 6-15 SU record, 10-10-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.4PPG. The Knicks are 10-7-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of +7.5PPG. We are betting the current Raptors (Quckley and Barrett) struggle in their return to New York tonight. Lay the points.

#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +1.5 or +2 over Virginia, Saturday at 6 PM ET - We faded Virginia on the road last week @ Wake Forest and the Deacs rolled to an easy 19 point win. That dropped UVA’s record in true road games to 0-4 SU and ATS with every loss coming by at least 16 points. Their home vs road splits are as drastic as any team in the country. The Cavs are averaging only 54 PPG on 37% shooting away from home this season. Their normally stellar defense gives up 74 PPG on 49% shooting in road games. They’ve lost their 4 road games to the spread by 80 total points or an average -20 point ATS per game. We’re getting some value here with Tech because they’ve lost 5 of their last 6 games. However, only 1 of those would be considered a bad loss (lost in OT @ Notre Dame) and their most recent game was a win @ Clemson (ranked 39th per KenPom) as a double digit underdog. Their game prior to that the Yellow Jackets lost @ Duke by 5 but led the Blue Devils by double digits in the 2nd half despite getting shafted by the refs (not a surprise at Cameron Indoor Stadium) with a -12 made FT margin. Speaking of the Blue Devils, this Georgia Tech team already beat Duke here at home earlier in the season. Until UVA proves they can win, or even stay close, on the road, we’ll continue to fade them. Especially when they open as a road favorite vs a more than competent Ga Tech team.

#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State +3.5 or +4 over Louisiana Tech, Saturday at 5 PM ET - We think we have some very solid value with JSU here as our power ratings have them as a small favorite and the opening line was La Tech -2.5. The Gamecocks are undervalued and on the rise winning 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve also covered 5 of their last 6 and JSU’s only loss during that stretch was their most recent game (last Saturday) @ Western Kentucky, a game they led by 10 in the 2nd half but lost. Included in that 7 game stretch was a 10 point win @ Liberty (as an 11 point dog) who is rated as the best team in CUSA. La Tech just played host to that same Liberty team and won in OT in a game the Bulldogs trailed pretty much throughout despite the win. LT is just 3-6 SU in their true road games with 2 of those wins coming vs teams ranked outside the top 300. JSU’s defense is high level allowing just 62 PPG (12th nationally) and at home that drops to 59 PPG. They put lots of pressure on opposing teams with a defensive turnover rate of 19% which is a bad match up for the La Tech offense that coughs up the ball 19% of the time (263rd nationally). That should lead to extra possessions for the Gamecocks who shoot 49% from the field at home while averaging 77 PPG. La Tech has never played at this venue and we expect Jacksonville State to win this game at home. Take the points.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Ravens -9.5 vs Houston Texans – Saturday, 4:30 PM ET - The Baltimore Ravens have HISTORIC numbers when it comes to DVOA rankings and are one the best all-time in that statistical category. They hold the #1 overall DVOA, 4th offensively and 1st defensively. The impressive aspect of that is they played the toughest strength of schedule this season in the NFL. The Ravens have an overall average +/- of +11.9PPG (best in the NFL) and a net differential of +14.1PPG at home (4th). Houston on the other hand is 12th in DVOA rankings, 14th offensively and 16th defensively. The Texans were much better at home (7-3 SU) than on the road (4-4 SU). They had a +/- at home of +6.9PPG but were negative -1.8PPG on the road. Baltimore averaged the 3rd most yards per play offensively at home at 6.4, while the Texans on the road averaged 5.0YPP. Going back to the season strength of schedule we find the Texans faced the 18th toughest schedule which includes 13 defense that rank in the bottom half of the league in DVOA. The Ravens have a net play differential of +1.3 yards per play compared to the Texans +0.3YPP against weak competition. Texans QB Stroud is going to be a very good NFL QB, but this is too much to ask of a rookie QB and coach. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 8:10 PM ET - This is certainly a tough scheduling spot for the Hawks who are coming off a game last night versus the Magic while Miami is rested. It took a buzzer beating shot by Dejonte Murray to steal that victory last night and we’re betting they have a tough time getting back up for this game tonight. When Miami last played they were blown out in Toronto 121-97. The Heat rank 11th in defensive efficiency rating but they struggled to get stops against the Raptors and allowed 20 made 3-pointers. Prior to that loss the Heat had won 3 straight games and are finally getting healthy Butler, Adebayo and Herro all in the lineup. These teams met in December with the Heat winning 122-113 at home as a 1-point chalk. Miami played without Butler in that game and still won by 9-points. The Hawks haven’t been a great road team this season with a negative differential of minus -1.7PPG and a 9-12 SU record. Miami has had a ton of missed games by starters this season yet still have a home record of 12-7 SU and an average +/- of plus 1.2PPG. Miami has been very good when coming off a loss with a 61% win rate dating back to the start of last season. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the NBA when playing without rest with a 5-15 SU record in their last 20. Miami has won outright 7 of the last ten meetings and will get a double-digit win here.

#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis +8.5 over VCU, Friday at 7 PM ET - St Louis is an undervalued team right now in our opinion with an 8-9 overall record and just 1-3 in the Atlantic 10. That’s because this team is finally healthy after having a number of injuries this season. Four of their top seven scorers have missed time this year due to injury. Top guard Parker has been back for 2 games after missing 9 in a row and starting center Ezewiro, a transfer from Georgetown, missed the first 11 games of the season and has scored double digits in every game since his return. Meadows and Hughes are 2 other key players who have missed time this season. They have had all hands on deck for their last 2 games and played very well beating a good St Joes team at home and then taking by far the best team in the A10, Dayton, to the wire on the road on Tuesday losing by just 5 points. The Billikens held tough with the Flyers despite attempting just 7 FT’s compared to 29 for Dayton. Now they take on a VCU team that is rated the 4th or 5th best team in the A10 and is 2-2 in league play with both wins coming to the wire (wins by 4 & 6 points). VCU has also struggled at home this season already losing 5 games on their home court. The Rams average margin of victory this year is +6 points and they’ve won 4 games by more than 12 points this season and 3 of those 4 wins came vs teams ranked 220 or lower. We like St Louis to give VCU all they can handle in this one so we’re grabbing the generous points.

ASA play 8* on #529 Indiana Pacers +7.5 at Sacramento Kings – 10 PM ET - We like the Pacers here plus the points against the Kings who are coming off an extended road trip and playing their first game back at home. Sacramento has lost 3 straight games to some of the elite teams in the NBA but they are clearly over-priced here. A general line analysis tells us this line should be -5.5 at the most. In recent home games the Kings were favored by -5.5-points against the Magic, -4.5 vs. Toronto and New Orleans. Indiana rates higher than Orlando and Toronto in our power ratings and slightly below the Pelicans. Indiana is playing without PG Haliburton and have lost two straight but those two L’s came against a red hot Jazz team in Utah and another loss at Denver. Here they step down in class to face a Kings team that has a winning overall record at home of 13-7 SU but they have a negative differential of minus -0.1PPG. The Pacers have an average net differential on the road of minus -2PPG but also have a winning record of 10-8 SU. The Pacers made a huge deal yesterday when they traded for Siakam but don’t expect him to play tonight. Grab the points with Indiana.

#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty -12.5 over FIU, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Despite the Flames sitting as a double digit favorite, we’re still get value on them in this game. That’s because they’ve lost 3 straight and sit at 0-3 in CUSA play (first year in CUSA) after winning the Atlantic Sun conference with a 15-3 record last year. They have plenty of experience back off that team that went 27-8 last year with 5 of their top 7 rotation guys back. Two of their three losses over the last week and half have come by 2 points and in OT and all 3 were vs top 150 teams. They’ve faced a top 100 schedule so far this season including the most difficult in Conference USA. In Liberty’s most recent home game, they were favored by 11 vs a Jacksonville State team that ranks more than 100 spots higher than this FIU team yet the spread vs the Panthers on Thursday is only 1 or 2 points higher. FIU has a 7-11 record despite playing a much easier schedule (276th SOS) but they’ve won 2 in a row, both at home vs teams ranked outside the top 220, thus the lower number. Liberty is a very good shooting team, top 100 in eFG% and offensive efficiency, and they are facing a terrible FIU defense that ranks outside the top 340 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG% defense. The Panthers allow 84 PPG on the road and they are facing a Liberty offense that puts up over 80 PPG at home while limiting their opponents to just 50 PPG. The Flames, despite their 0-3 conference record, are still the highest rated team in CUSA per KenPom. They have a home record of 37-5 SU since the start of the 2021 season and this is an absolute must win for them at home. Big win here for Liberty.

ASA top play on #503 Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 or -4 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:40 PM ET - The Cavs have won 5 straight games, but they’ve come against 19-23 Bulls, 16-23 Nets, 7-32 Spurs and two wins against the 7-32 Wizards. So, let’s not be fooled by this current Cavaliers stretch of wins. The Bucks on the other hand have won 3 straight against the Celtics, Warriors and Kings. Milwaukee is the superior team here offensively ranking 3rd compared to the Cavs ranking 20th. Cleveland does hold the advantage defensively with the 5th best overall rating compared to the Bucks at 15th. Milwaukee has the 3rd best 3-point percentage in the league while the Cavs rank 10th in 3PT% defense. The Cavs are 26th in the NBA in 3PT% shooting and won’t make many against the Bucks defense that is 2nd in the league in defending the 3-point line. In fact, in the most recent meeting between these two teams the Bucks held the Cavs to 6 of 43 on 3-point field goals. The Cavaliers are still without dynamic PG Garland and starting Center Mobley and simply don’t have the depth to hang with Milwaukee at near full strength. Lay the points on the road.

#702 ASA TOP PLAY ON Virginia -3.5 over Virginia Tech, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for UVA who is coming off 2 straight losses, both on the road, and now coming home where they are 9-0 on the season. Va Tech is trending down with a 5-5 SU record since late November and they’ve beaten 1 top 100 team since November 26th. The Hokies are 0-4 in true road games this season with 3 of those losses coming by double digits. In their road games this season Va Tech is barely making 40% of their shots and averaging just 64 PPG. We don’t anticipate them breaking out on the road here vs a Virginia defense that ranks 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and is holding their opponents to a paltry 49 PPG at home. The Hokies are a good FT shooting team and they really rely in getting to the charity stripe (70th nationally in % of points from the FT line) but the Cavs rarely foul allowing opponents only 9 made FT’s per game at home. We went against UVA on the road on Saturday @ WF and they were rolled by double digits. This is a different team at home where they are winning by an average of +25 PPG with a 7-2 ATS record. UVA was favored by 5 here last year and won by 10 and we see a similar final score on Wednesday night. Lay it with Virginia.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns -5 vs Sacramento Kings, 9 PM ET - The Suns grade out below the Kings in most season long statistical categories, but they’ve played most of the season without their ‘big 3’ of Booker, Durant and Beal on the floor together. They are finally healthy so we are starting to see what this roster can potentially do. They are coming off 2 straight road wins over the Lakers and Blazers and now catch a Kings team playing their 5th straight road game. Sacramento is off a demoralizing last second loss to the Bucks when Dame Lillard hit a deep 3-pointer with no time on the clock. The big edge we like for the Suns in this game will be 3-point shooting. The Suns are 11th in the league in 3-point percentage (even with the injuries) at 37.4%. The Kings are second to last in the NBA in opponents 3PT% allowed. The Suns are also one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league, so the Kings won’t get many second chance opportunities here. You can expect the Suns to steadily trend up as they become accustomed to playing with each other so tonight is a ‘buy low’ opportunity with Phoenix.

#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON Indiana +10.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Purdue has shown some serious vulnerability on the road this season. They have played 3 true road games this season losing 2 of those games @ Northwestern and @ Nebraska. Their only true road win was @ Maryland in a game the Terps hit only 33% of their shots overall, just 23% of their 3’s and made only 6 FT’s. Now they face their rival IU who is 9-1 at home with their only loss at Assembly Hall coming by 4 points vs Kansas in a game where the Hoosiers led for much of. IU has been very solid offensively at home hitting nearly 50% of their shots while scoring 77 PPG. They should be able to keep up in this one vs a Purdue defense that has allowed 78 PPG on the road this year. The Boilers defense has allowed at least 78 points in each of their last 3 games and in Big 10 play they are giving up an average of 76 PPG in their 6 Big 10 games this season. It will be tough for Purdue to pull away in this one. On the other end of the court the IU defense has been very good at home allowing just 68 PPG on 39% shooting. Only 3 of their 10 opponents have been able to top 70 points at Assembly Hall. Indiana topped Purdue here last year by 5 points as a 1.5 point favorite and now they are near a double digit dog just one year later. This is the largest home dog role for Indiana vs Purdue since the 2009 season. 11 of the last 15 meetings between these 2 rivals have resulted in single digit win margins and we expect another one here. Take the points with Indiana.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +7.5 at Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - This line is grossly inflated with the Jazz current success and the fact that the Pacers are coming off a game in Denver last night. The Pacers gave extended minutes to their bench players yesterday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor here. Utah has ripped off 5-straight wins, but they are coming off a big win over the Lakers and have two huge games on deck against the Warriors and Thunder. Looking at recent home games for the Jazz they were favored by -8.5-points against the 3-36 Pistons. Now they are laying nearly that same number against the 23-16 Pacers. Utah has been a solid home favorite this season with a 5-1 ATS record, but the Pacers are a profitable 13-9 ATS as an underdog this season. These two teams have similar strength of schedules yet the Pacers rank 2nd in offensive efficiency and 26th in DEFF compared to the Jazz who are 23rd in OEFF and 23 in defensive efficiency. Clearly the Bookmakers have over-adjusted this number so let's grab the value with Indiana over Utah.

#152 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 over Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Eagles have been trending the wrong way for months now and laying a full FG on the road right now with this team is too much so we’re siding with Tampa Bay. Philly has failed to cover their last 6 games and on the season and they lost 5 of those 6 games outright. Their only win since the beginning of December was an 8 point home win over the NY Giants. Philadelphia was outgained in 8 of their last 10 games and their defense fell apart allowing 31 PPG over their last 7. Despite their 11-6 overall record, the Eagles point differential is only +5 which is more in line with a .500 type team. Lastly they are really banged up right now on offense with QB Hurts dealing with a finger injury on his throwing hand and both starting WR’s Brown and Smith not at 100%. TB trending positive winning 5 of final 6 games with only loss vs Saints in a game they outgained New Orleans 7 YPP to 4.4 YPP but had 4 turnovers. The Bucs were undervalued most of the season ending with an 11-6 ATS record (2nd best in the NFL) and now they are a home dog to a team that was barely hanging on over the last month of the season. Some infighting in the Philly locker room as well doesn’t help. We give the Bucs a solid shot at the outright win and getting a full FG is a bonus.

#876 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -1.5 over Iowa, Monday at 6 PM ET - We faded Minnesota on Friday and picked up a win as Indiana rolled at home to an easy win. Now we get a much improved Gopher team at home off a loss basically in a pick-em game vs Iowa. Meanwhile the Hawkeyes are off a huge home win over Nebraska scoring 94 points in the process. Iowa was in an ideal situation in that game catching the Huskers upsetting Purdue at home just a few days earlier. Iowa has been a completely different team away from home the last few seasons. This year they are 0-4 SU in true road game with an average margin of -16 points per game. If we go back to the start of last season they have played 15 true road games and won only 4 of those. The Hawkeyes average 95 PPG at home and only 72 PPG on the road, they shoot over 50% at home and just 43% on the road, and from beyond the arc they make 37% of their shot at home and 32% on the road. Minnesota is drastically improved from last season and they have only 1 home loss vs Missouri, a game the Gophers led by 20 in the 2nd half. Prior to their loss @ Indiana the Gophers had won 7 straight and they’ve been a huge money maker with a 14-2 ATS record this season. Minnesota is tough to guard with 5 players averaging double digit points including one of the top players in the Big 10, Dawson Garcia, averaging 17 PPG and 8 RPG. They rank in the top 30 nationally in eFG% and Minny is facing an Iowa defense that allows 77 PPG overall and 84 PPG on the road. The Hawks have a huge home game on deck vs Purdue so a look ahead is highly possible. We have this game power rated with Minnesota a 4 point home favorite and we’re getting them near pick-em. We like the Gophers in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +5.5 or +5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - We like the scheduling advantage for the Kings as they catch the Bucks off a big game last night against the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee is also off a huge home win over the Celtics on Thursday night making this their 3rd game in four nights and the 2nd of of a back to back. The Bucks clearly are not unbeatable at home this season as they’ve lost recent home games to the Jazz and Pacers. Since the start of last season the Bucks are 50-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.3PPG. The Kings are rested and come into this game off a recent loss in Philadelphia. Prior to that loss the Kings had won 4 straight road games. Going back to the start of the 2022-23 season the Kings have the 4th best road record in the NBA and average +/- on the road of +1.7PPG. Milwaukee’s defense has been their Achilles heel this season as they give up 119.4PPG which is 24th most in the league. Sacramento is the 9th highest scoring team in the league and should put up plenty of points here to cover this short number.

ASA top play on 10* Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs Miami Dolphins, 8:15 PM ET - The Chiefs were favored by -2.5 points earlier this season when these two teams met in Germany so the adjustment to -4.5 in KC doesn’t seem like enough in our opinion. You’ve probably heard many experts talk about the Dolphins playing in cold weather and their poor record in adverse conditions. That certainly has some merit but isn’t the sole focus of our handicap. Miami has several key injuries, especially to a defense that has been exploited in recent weeks. They are thin on the D-line and at the linebacker position and it couldn’t come at a worse time. In the past two weeks this defense allowed 56-points to the Ravens and nearly 500 total yards of offense. Last week they gave up just 21-points to the Bills but that should have been much worse as Bills QB Allen threw two INT’s in the red zone. Buffalo averaged 6.1YPP and racked up 473 yards on the day. The other factor to consider here is the fact the Dolphins defense was on the field for 77 plays last week, so fatigue becomes an issue. Granted, this is not the same Chiefs team that we have witnessed in the past as the offense has seen a massive regression this season. But the defense has been one of the best in the league, ranking 7th in DVOA, 2nd in yards per game allowed 5th in yards per play and 2nd in points allowed per game. Kansas City is 37-13 SU at home since 2019 and Patrick Mahomes has been in this situation more times than we can count. The same can’t be said for Tua Tagovailoa who is making his first career playoff start. QB’s in this situation have covered just 32% of the time in the last 20+ seasons. Tua is also 0-4 when playing in below 40-degree temperatures and Saturday’s forecast is calling for a negative windchill. Miami as a team has dropped 10-straight games in temperatures below 40 degrees. We have not been sold on KC all season long but the situation warrants a bet on them at home here as a small favorite.

ASA top play 10* on: #760 Southern Illinois +2.5 vs Drake, 8 PM ET - Drake off huge home win over Indiana State who is the best team in the MVC this year and should be flat for this road date against So. Illinois. Drake has played three true road games, all versus teams ranked lower than Southern Illinois and lost two of those games, one by 22-points to Belmont. The Bulldogs only true road win was at Valparaiso who is ranked outside top 300 per KenPom. SIU is a top 100 team that ranks in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive eFG%. The Salukis are 79th in offensive efficiency and 120th in DEFF. Southern Illinois is a very good 3-point shooting team at 38.9% (16th in the nation) and also defends the Arc well with 2nd lowest 3PT% against in the country at 26.1%. The Salukis are 9-1 SU at home this year with an average +/- of +16.1PPG and 20-5 SU since the start of last year. Southern is playing with revenge here as they lost to Drake in the conference tournament a year ago. In the regular season meeting on this court a year ago, SIU beat Drake 53-49. We call for another W this time around.

ASA top play 10* on: #622 New Mexico -3.5 over San Diego State, 2 PM ET - New Mexico is off a road loss @ UNLV by 10-points but should bounce back here at home against the Aztecs. In the game against UNLV the Lobos shot well at 49% for the game and were +8 in rebounds but turned it over 16 times. Those TO’s were very uncharacteristic for this New Mexico team that is 37th in turnover percentage on the season so don’t expect a sloppy performance at home on Saturday. New Mexico is very good at home in the Pit with a 8-0 SU record this year and an average margin of victory of +20.7PPG. All but one of those home wins have come by at least 9 points. Going back even further we find the Lobos are 23-4 SU at home since the start of last year and they beat this same San Diego St (final 4 team) team on road last year and lost by 2 at home. In the loss at home New Mexico blew a 13-point 2nd half lead. The Aztecs are a top 25 team yet are an underdog here. SDSU is on the road for the 2nd straight game after barely beating San Jose St on Tuesday who has a 7-9 record. San Deigo State is not a great shooting team overall at 45.1% which ranks 166th in the nation. They struggle from Deep with a 32.6 shooting percentage which is 232nd. New Mexico hits 46.7% of their FG attempts (88th) and gets plenty of attempts with the 17th fastest paced offense in college hoops.

ASA play 8* on: #656 Wake Forest -5.5 vs. Virginia, 2 PM ET - Wake Forest is much improved this year and should be ready to bounce back after a 5-point road loss @ Florida State earlier this week. The Deacons are undefeated at home this season with an average margin of victory of +19PPG. Last season Wake Forest was 13-3 SU at home with an average +/- of +7.8PPG. UVA is not nearly as good as they have been in the past under Tony Bennett and they’ve had their struggles on the road. The Cavaliers are 0-3 SU in true road games this season with all of those losses coming by double digits including by 22 @ Notre Dame who is the 2nd worst team in the ACC. Wake Forest is a very good offensive team ranking 21st in efficiency and 33rd in eFG%. The Demon Deacons put up 81PPG on the season which is 36th nationally. This Virginia team has struggled offensively shooting just 45.4% (152nd) and 35.9% from Deep which ranks 90th. UVA has scored 60, 54, and 54 in their 3 road games which will not get it done against this Wake Forest team.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -14 over the Portland Trailblazers, 8:10 PM ET - We don’t make a habit of laying double digits in the NBA but tonight we will make an exception. The Blazers are bad…really bad! In their last two games they’ve lost to the Knicks 84-112 and to OKC last night 77-139. This team is last in the NBA in offensive efficiency over their last 5 games and score just .980 points per possession in that span of games. Defensively they are better, but not by much as they allow 1.189PPP which ranks 20th in their last 5. They have the worst average point differential in the league at minus -21.4PPG in that same stretch of games. Portland is playing their 7th straight road game, 2nd of back-to-back nights, 3rd in four nights and 7th game in 12 days. The Blazers average +/- on the road this season is a negative -9.8PPG. Minnesota meanwhile is coming off a tough loss to the Celtics and also lost their most recent home game to the Pelicans. The Wolves have the 4th best home differential in the NBA at +9.7PPG and rely on a defense that is best in the NBA in terms of efficiency ratings. Given the circumstances we expect the T’Wolves to get a dominating home win here.

#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana -4 over Minnesota, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Big home game for the Hoosiers coming off a road loss @ Rutgers earlier this week. This situation is similar to last Saturday when we were on Indiana at home vs Ohio State and picked up a win. IU is a near perfect 8-1 at home this season with their lone loss by 4 points vs Kansas, a game the Hoosiers led most of the way. They take on a Minnesota team that has an impressive 12-3 overall record but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (347th SOS out of 363 teams). The Gophers have played a grand total of ONE road game since December 3rd compared to 6 home games. That 1 road game they came from behind in the 2nd half to squeak by Michigan 73-71 in a game they shot nearly 50% from the field and over 40% from beyond the arc. That was also a win vs a Michigan team that is falling apart at the seams losers of 9 of their last 12 games and Minnesota was a 6.5 point dog in that game. Now IU laying only 3 in a crucial home tilt. The Hoosiers have won 7 straight at home vs Minnesota and the last time the Gophers were able to pull off a win at Assembly Hall was the 2011/12 season. We like Indiana to win and cover at home.

ASA play on Boston Celtics +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Something is clearly going on within the Bucks organization/locker room that we can’t figure out. Even though this team is 25-12 SU, this loaded roster should be better than it is. The Bucks are currently 21st in defensive efficiency after ranking 4th a season ago. The Celtics were 3rd in DEFF a year ago and rank 2nd this season allowing just 1.113PPP. That’s what separates these two teams as the C’s play defense and the Bucks don’t. Both teams average over 1.210 points per possession and rank 2nd and 3rd in offensive efficiency. The Celtics are coming off a game last night but that hasn’t mattered as they are 9-4 ATS dating back to the start of last season when playing without rest. They have a very deep roster and have beaten the Bucks 5 of the last six times they’ve played. Milwaukee was 24-18-2 ATS at home a year ago with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. The Celtics owned the best road point differential in the league last season at +2.9PPG. Boston has an average margin of victory on the road this season of +6.4PPG. Milwaukee at home is winning by an average +5.8PPG at home with a 7-11-1 ATS record on their home court. Grab the points with the Celtics unless they decide to sit starters.

#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -5.5 over Old Dominion, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We went against ODU last Saturday and came up with an easy win as Arkansas State won by 15. We’ll fade the Monarchs again on Thursday as they are playing their 3rd consecutive road game in a week span. ODU is 0-6 on the road this season losing by an average of 10 PPG and their defense is allowing 83 PPG away from home. They allowed 86 points last Thursday at Troy in a 13 point loss and then allowed 90 over the weekend vs Arkie State. The Monarchs rank 322nd in eFG% defense and 345th in 3 point FG% defense. That won’t cut it here vs a Georgia State team that is 4-1 at home and has scored at least 88 points in 4 of those 5 home games. The Panthers should have a nice advantage at the FT line as well with ODU allowing 21% of their opponents points to come from the charity stripe and GSU hitting 76% of their freebies on the season. The Monarchs continue to be overvalued covering only 3 of their 14 games this season and we project another spread loss here. Georgia State by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6.5 at Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - Utah is coming off a tough East coast road trip and two huge upset wins of the 76ers and Bucks. The Jazz benefited from facing a 76ers team without Joel Embiid and a Bucks team without Lillard. Those two victories will have the Nuggets on high alert and focused for this road date in Utah. Denver continues to play outstanding with an 8-2 SU record their last 10 games with 6 of those W’s coming by 6+ points. The Nuggets have been favored by -7.5 or more points in four straight meetings with the Jazz and have covered 3 of 4. A key advantage in this game for Denver will be in the turnover department. Denver turns the ball over the 2nd fewest times per game at 12.2 on the season while the Jazz turn it over more than any team in the league at 16.4 per game. The Nuggets are also one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 49.5% and the Jazz are 19th in opponents FG% against allowing 47.8%. Utah will have a tough time scoring here with the 25th worst shooting statistics in the league (46.2%) going up against a Denver D that holds opponents to 46.3% (10th). The Nuggets have won 6 straight road games, and we like them to get a win by a double-digit margin here.

#726 ASA PLAY ON 8* Ohio State -1 or -1.5 or Pick'em over Wisconsin, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - We really like this situation for the Buckeyes. They are coming off a loss @ Indiana on Saturday (we were on the Hoosiers) and this becomes a very important game for them with 3 of their last 4 games on the road. OSU is 2-2 in Big 10 play and can’t afford a home loss here. The Buckeyes are 8-1 at home this year with their only loss coming back in early November vs Texas A&M, a game that was close throughout with neither team leading by more than 7 points. The Badgers have been on a nice roll winning 10 of their last 11 and could be a bit overvalued on the road in this one. They’ve played only 3 true road games and lost 2 of those @ Providence and @ Arizona. They have not been on the road in over a month and now are about to get pulled out of their comfort zone. The Badgers have been outscored by an average of 68-75 in their road games while shooting under 40% from the field. OSU has won their home games by an average score of 78-62 while hitting 38% of their triples. That will be an issue here for a Wisconsin defense that hasn’t been very good defending the arc allowing almost 36% which is 282nd nationally. We like this Wisconsin team but we feel we’re catching them at the top of the market so to speak (overvalued) vs a desperate home team. At basically a pick-em type game, we’ll call for Ohio State to pick up the win on Wednesday.

#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -4 over Murray State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Missouri State is in a must win spot coming off 2 straight losses and with 2 road game on deck after this one. The Bears lost by 2 points here at home last week vs Northern Iowa (first home loss of the season) missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer that would have given them the win. After that loss they were flat as a pancake @ Bradley putting up their worst performance of the year losing by 26 as a 5 point underdog. Missouri State head coach Ford called it an “unacceptable” effort so you can bet the Bears will be all in effort wise in this one. Murray State steps in off 3 straight wins and will be playing their 2nd of back to back road games after upsetting Evansville on the road over the weekend. The Aces played without their leading scorer in that game and the prior to Murray State wins were both at home. Prior to that road win the Racers were 0-6 SU in road/neutral games this season. They had also lost 9 of their previous 10 games prior to their current 3 game winning streak. Because of that mini streak we’re getting value with Missouri State laying a small number at home. The Bears have a HUGE edge defensively in this game. They rank 14th nationally in eFG% defense and 12th in 3 point defense allowing opponents to hit only 27% of their shots from deep. Murray State, on the other hand, ranks outside the top 300 in eFG% defense, 2 point FG% defense, and 3 point FG% defense. These 2 split their games last year with the home team winning each. Murray State squeaked by at home by 3 points but when they traveled to Springfield the Bears rolled by 15 points. Expect a huge effort from Missouri State and an easy win.

ASA play on 8* Toronto Raptors +5 at LA Lakers, 10:30 PM ET - We will bet against the Lakers again as they are coming off a big win over the Clippers but are still 4-10 SU their last 14 games. The Lakers shot unusually well in win against the Clippers who shoot uncharacteristically poorly. The Clippers hit just 40% for the game which was well below their 48.7% season percentage. Now the Lakers are off that big win and have a date with the Phoenix Suns next. The Raptors are playing well since their trade with the Knicks with a 3-1 SU record in their last four games. They have impressive wins against the Cavs, at Memphis, a 5-point loss at Sacramento and a win against the Warriors. In their last five games the Raptors have a net point differential of +3.2PPG and four of those games were on the road. The Lakers +/- in their past five games is a negative -9.4PPG. The Lakers rank 28th in offensive rebounds per game while the Raptors rank 7th. We like their advantage on the O-boards and the second-chance opportunities it will present for Toronto. Grab the points.

#606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Unranked home team (Cincinnati) favored over a ranked road game (Texas #25) is a situation where we often look at the home team. First of all, the Longhorns should not be ranked period. They are 11-3 on the season, they’ve played the 310th most difficult SOS and the Horns have beaten ONE team ranked inside the top 130 this season (beat LSU who is ranked 83rd per KenPom). On top of that, Texas has played one true road game this season and lost by 21 points @ Marquette in that one. The Bearcats have played the tougher schedule and have the better record at 12-2. Their only losses are vs Dayton and Xavier both ranked in the top 40. Cincy has some nice momentum after a win @ BYU on Saturday (top 10 team per KenPom) and they have won 25 of their last 28 games at Fifth Third Arena including 9-0 this year with all wins by double digits. The Horns have been overvalued all season long (4-10 ATS) and they are facing a Cincinnati defense that ranks in the top 40 in both defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Bearcats should also have a nice edge on the glass ranking 2nd in the nation in defensive rebounding and 9th in offensive rebounding. Lay it with Cincinnati.

#287 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +4.5 over Michigan, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Washington is a perfect 3-0 SU as an underdog this year with outright wins over Texas, Oregon, and Oregon State in that role. Dating back to the beginning of last year, the Huskies are 5-0 SU as an underdog. We think they have a great shot to upset Michigan on Monday and if they do lose, we expect it to be close and were getting +4.5 as a buffer. Nobody has been able to stop Washington’s passing game this season (#1 in the nation averaging 358 YPG through the air) and we don’t think Michigan will be any different. While the Wolverines defense has fantastic numbers, the fact is they’ve played a number of very weak offenses this year with 8 of the 13 offenses they faced during the regular season ranked outside the top 100. They’ve only faced 2 passing offenses ranked inside the top 50, Maryland (21st) and Ohio State (22nd), and both of those teams gave the Michigan defense problems throwing for 247 and 271 yards respectively in 2 close games (both decided by a TD or less). Now they face the best passing offense in the nation and the key for Washington will be keeping QB Penix upright which we think they’ll do. The Huskies offensive line has allowed a grand total of 11 sacks the entire season (4th best in the nation) and didn’t allow a single sack vs a very good Texas defensive front last week. Michigan was able to generate massive pressure on Bama QB Milroe last week, however the Crimson Tide offensive line was a liability all season long ranking 125th in sacks per game allowed so that wasn’t surprising. Even with that pressure, Alabama was still able to push Michigan to OT before losing in semi finals. Washington doesn’t have great defensive numbers but their strength is vs the run (41st nationally) so they match up well with the Wolverines offense. Bottom line is, we think Washington has a great shot to win this game and if they lose we’re getting above key numbers 3 & 4 so also a decent chance to win in that situation as well. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -11 or 11.5 at Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - Rarely will you find us on a double-digit road favorite but there are times you have to make exceptions to the rules which is the case tonight. Oklahoma City Thunder is an elite team in the NBA at 23-11 SU and a serious contender in the Western Conference. Washington is a dumpster fire at 6-29 SU and expect a roster shakeup before the trade deadline. OKC has lost two straight on the road and will bounce back here after a couple days of rest. The Thunder have the 2nd best average Margin of Victory on the road this season at +7.2PPG. The have the #1 defensive efficiency rating on the road allowing 1.095 points per possession and rank 9th in OEFF. Washington has the WORST average road differential in the NBA at minus -12PPG. They rate 24th in offensive efficiency and 30th or last in DEFF. The Thunder are the 2nd best overall shooting team in the NBA and the Wiz are 29th in overall FG% defense. OKC is 1st in 3PT% offense and the Wizards are 23rd in defending the 3-point line. With Oklahoma City off a pair of losses we expect them to be focused here with a big road effort.

#460 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Giants +5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - These same two teams recently played in Philly with the Eagles a 14-point home chalk. Philadelphia won that game 33-25 and a +173 yardage advantage. New York had started QB Tommy DeVito in that game before Tyrod Taylor relieved him. Last week Taylor played well against the Rams with 319 passing yards on 27/41 passing. He also adds a rushing element with 40-yards on the ground against Los Angeles. The story here though is the in-season demise of the Eagles. Through the first two months of the season the Eagles had a net differential of +6.5PPG. Now for the season they are +1.4PPG which ranks 12th in the NFL. 8 of the Eagles 11 wins this season have been by one possession. 4 of their last 5 wins have been by 7 or less. There is turmoil in the Philadelphia locker room and some grumbling among the players/coaches. The defense took a turn for the worse when Matt Patricia took over the play calling. Philly has given up 20+ points in 6 straight games and have allowed an average of 31.5PPG over that same span of games. New York lost their first two home games of the season badly to Dallas and Seattle. Since then they have gone 3-2 SU at home and the two losses were by a combined 4-points. With the Eagles likely to rest starters in bad weather we like the G-Men to keep it close or win outright.

#466 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona Cardinals +3 over Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Arizona has shown no quit on the season traveling across the country to Philadelphia last week and beating the Eagles who were trying to hold onto their NFC East lead. The Cards were down 21-6 at half and could have folded in a meaningless game on the road but battled back for a 35-31 win behind 220 yards on the ground. It wasn’t a fluke as Arizona was +15 first downs and outgained the Eagles 449 to 275. The only other team to beat the Eagles at home this year was San Francisco. It’s no coincidence that Arizona QB Murray has played outstanding after head coach Gannon gave him vote of confidence saying he was absolutely their QB of the future. Murray has completed just under 70% of his passes for almost 700 yards and 6 TD’s his last 3 games. The Cards rushing attack has topped 150 yards in 3 of their last 4 games including topping 220 yards vs 2 playoff teams, the Eagles & Niners. That’s bad news for a Seattle defense that ranks 30th vs the run (26th EPA vs the run) and in the last 6 games this defense has allowed 169, 136, 173, 178, 162, and 202 yards on the ground. They look like they’re wearing down on that side of the ball which will be a problem vs this Arizona offense. Seattle has lost 5 of their last 7 games with their only 2 wins during that stretch both coming by only 3 points. Seattle needs to win this game to have any shot at the playoffs so all the pressure is on the road team. The Cards can play loose and carefree as they did last week @ Philly and we give them a great shot at the upset. Take the points.

#463 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Bears +3 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Chicago is playing by far their best football of the season winning 5 of their last 7 games with an ATS record of 6-1-1 their last 8. While they can’t make the playoffs, they’d like nothing more than to end their 9 game losing streak vs Green Bay and knock them out of the playoffs. This young Green Bay team has all the pressure here as a win puts them in the post season while a loss limits their chances significantly. Unlike Chicago, the Packers were trending down heading into last weekend’s win over Minnesota who was playing with their 4th string QB Hall. That one data point is not changing our opinion. Leading into that game the Packers had lost to the NYG with DeVito playing QB, were smoked at home by an average Tampa Bay team, and needed a last second FG to beat a 2-14 Carolina team. This is a bad match up for Green Bay’s defense. They rank 28th vs the run and they are facing a Chicago offense that has a mobile QB and the 2nd best running attack in the NFL. Bear’s QB Fields is playing at a high level over his last nine starts with a QB Rating of 87.5 to go along with 1,838 yards passing, 13 TDs, and 521 yards rushing. The defense has been top level allowing 20 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve risen to 12th in total defense after being near the bottom of the league a few months ago. Chicago’s only losses since early November were by 3 points @ Cleveland and a loss @ Detroit in a game they led by 12 points with less than 4:00 remaining in the game. They have no pressure here and will do everything they can to beat this must win Green Bay team. And we all know must win doesn’t mean will win. In fact, Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 100-64-4 (61.0%) against the spread (ATS). We give the Bears a great shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points.

#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Like this spot for the Hoosiers coming off a road loss on Wednesday night @ Nebraska. Not a bad loss by any means vs a Husker team that is 12-2 on the season and playing at a high level. We now get Indiana at home as an underdog vs an OSU team that has played a fairly weak slate thus far. The Buckeyes have played 1 true road game this year in their 14 games and they lost that game @ Penn State who KenPom has ranked as the only Big 10 team ranked outside the top 100. The Buckeyes have had back to back down to the wire wins vs West Virginia (the lowest rated team in the Big 12) with OSU winning in OT and then on Wednesday they struggled to get by Rutgers (won by 4) the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10. The Hoosiers have only 1 loss at home this year and that was by 4 points vs a Kansas team ranked #2 in the country. In that game IU led by as many as 13 points in the 2nd half and trailed for less than 4:00 minutes the entire game. Indiana is a very good shooting game ranking 31st nationally in FG% and they have been even better at home putting up 78 PPG on over 50% shooting. OSU has a solid 12-2 record but we mentioned their SOS which is more than 100 spots lower than Indiana and the Bucks have won only 1 of their last 11 Big 10 road games dating back to the start of last season. The Hoosier are a home dog to a team they beat by 16 here at Assembly Hall last season as a 5 point favorite. IU should be favored in this game but we’re getting a solid value play with the Hoosiers coming off a loss vs an OSU team that isn’t as good as their record might indicate. Indiana is the play.

#468 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -120 or +3 +100 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Pittsburgh has to win to have a shot at getting into the playoffs here while the Ravens are locked into the #1 seed. Of course we see this every year and teams that have to win, often don’t. Baltimore will be sitting QB Jackson and some other starters which is why they are a home dog in this one. If both teams were full strength here the Ravens would be favored by more than a TD so this line adjustment is more than 10 points which we think is too much. Value on Baltimore. You can bet Harbaugh and the Ravens are all in to win this game. That’s how they operate. Even in “meaningless” games such as the pre-season this team plays to win which is why they have won 24 of their last 25 pre-season games. The starting QB will be Huntley and he has plenty of starting experience subbing for Jackson when needed. Let’s not forget that the Steelers will be starting QB Rudolph for the 3rd time this season and he is technically their 3rd stringer. Despite their 9-7 record, the Steelers have been outgained and outscored on the season. They rank 24th in the NFL in offensive YPP and 26th in defensive YPP allowed. They are on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks and in last week’s 7 point win over Seattle, the Steelers were outgained by 1.0 YPP but ran 22 more offensive snaps. The Ravens are a money making 20-5 ATS their last 25 as a dog and when Mike Tomlin and Harbaugh meet, the underdog is 23-5-3 ATS (82.1%). We were looking at the exact same situation back in 2019 when Baltimore was hosting Pittsburgh, had secured a playoff spot, was a home dog, they were resting starters including QB Jackson, and the Steelers needed to win to have a shot at the playoffs. Final score was Baltimore 28-10. The Ravens are a deep & talented team and they would like nothing better than to ruin rival Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes. Bad weather and a low scoring game expected making the + points all the more important. All the pressure is on the Steelers here and we like Baltimore to win this game.

#674 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arkansas State -8 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Arkansas State is much better than their 5-9 record in our opinion. They’ve only played 3 home games this season and 11 road/neutral games. They’ve also played a tough schedule already facing Wisconsin, Iowa, Alabama and Belmont all on the road. They finally played a home game on Thursday and rolled Georgia Southern 109-83. The Red Wolves are very good offensive team averaging 78 PPG and at home in their 3 games they’ve averaged over 90 PPG. That could be a problem for an ODU team that averages 70 PPG and was just smoked on the road on Thursday night 86-73 by Troy. It wasn’t as close as the final score as Troy led that game by 26 points midway through the 2nd half before ODU made a late run. The Monarchs were without their top 2 scorers in that game, Jenkins & Allette, who combined to average 30 PPG and we’re guessing they may not play here. Jenkins is dealing with a knee injury and Allette has an illness and just 2 days removed from their last game and on the road again it’s highly possible neither will play and if they do they won’t be close to 100%. Old Dominion is 0-5 SU this season in their 5 true road games with their defense allowing 82 PPG and nearly 40% for 3 point land in those roadies. Not a great recipe vs an Arkansas State team that hits almost 45% of their 3’s at home. This one could get ugly. Lay it with Arkie State.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +9.5 at Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Nuggets and back the Magic. Denver is off a huge last second win last night in Golden State and will have a tough time getting back up for the Magic tonight. The Nuggets came back from 18-points down in the final 7-minutes to win and expended a ton of energy in that comeback win. Orlando is rested and coming off a most recent loss in Sacramento by 3-points in OT. The Magic have lost 3 straight road games at the Kings, Warriors and Suns. They were plus +6-points against the Kings and Suns and catch an inflated number here. Not only are the Nuggets playing the second night of a back to back but they are also playing their 5th game in nine days. Denver has a winning record of 11-9 ATS when playing without rest but their average margin of victory is only +1.2PPG. In their last 8 road games the Magic have just 2 losses by more than 9-points. Easy call here with the Underdog.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +3 vs Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - This is a quick rematch between these two teams as they recently met in Denver on Christmas Day. There was some controversy after the game as Warriors coach Steve Kerr had issues with Nuggets Center Jokic attempting 18 free throws by himself. That game went down to the wire with the Nuggets holding on for a home win by 6-points as a -7.5-point favorite. With that said this line should be a pick’em based off the number of the previous meeting. This has been a tightly contested series with 7 of the last eight meetings all decided by 6-points or less. The Warriors are coming off a win at home over the Magic and the encouraging news for the Warriors is that Klay Thompson is starting to find his stroke again. Thompson was 6 of 11 against the Magic and is a huge factor in the Warriors offense. In the game against the Nuggets he was 3 of 12 from the field. The Warriors are the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA and the Nuggets allow the 17th most. Golden State has a positive home point differential and is 9-6 SU on their home court with an impressive win over the Celtics recently. Denver has won 5 straight on the road but those W’s didn’t come against great competition (Hornets, Nets, Raptors, Bulls, Hawks). Grab the points with GST.

#802 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -6 over Minnesota, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting Michigan at the bottom of the market so to speak, laying only 6 points. Last year the Wolverines were favored by 12.5 at home vs Minnesota so some solid value here. The reason Michigan is laying a low number here is they’ve lost 2 straight and 5 of their last 7. However, all of those 5 losses were vs top 100 teams (Oregon, Indiana, Texas Tech, Florida, and McNeese State) and 3 of those 5 were by 3 points or fewer or in OT. Their most recent loss was at home vs a very good McNeese State team and don’t let the name fool you. They are very good and actually rated higher than tonight’s opponent, Minnesota, per KenPom. To put this point spread perspective, the Wolverines were favored by 10.5 last Friday vs McNeese State and now they are favored by just 6 (opening number) vs a Minnesota team who is ranked lower than McNeese as we discussed. This is a must win at home for Michigan as they have 2 road games following this game. Tough competition has been the theme for Michigan this year as they’ve played a very tough schedule (22nd SOS) which has a lot to do with their 6-7 record. They have solid top 100 wins over St John’s, Iowa, and Stanford this season. Minnesota has a better record, but only 1 top 100 win at home vs Nebraska. The Gophs have played a brutally easy schedule (358th SOS) and they’ve been at home for a full month. Only 2 of their 13 games this season have been road games (San Francisco & Ohio State) and the Gophers lost both of those games by double digits. Both teams have shot the ball very well (both top 25 in eFG%) but Michigan has only faced one defense ranked outside the top 250 in efficiency and 6 defenses ranked in the top 100. Compare that to the Gophers who’ve already faced 8 defenses ranked outside the top 250 on the season which is 62% of their games on the year. We like the home team in must win mode.

ASA play on 8* Sacramento Kings -5.5 vs Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - The Magic are in a tough scheduling situation here after coming off a huge game against the Golden State Warriors last night. Not only that, but they are also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 6th game in nine days, which rarely happens. Fatigue is certainly going to be a factor in Sacramento where the Kings are home and rested. Sacramento has won 2 straight road games, but their most recent home game was a loss to the T’Wolves. We expect Sacto to bounce back here at home where they are 11-5 SU this season. Orlando is 7-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -4.9PPG. Going into their game against the Warriors the Magic are 2-6 SU their previous 8 road games and all of those losses came by 4+ points. Orlando has some offensive deficiencies including shooting it at 47.3% which is 15th in the NBA. The Kings have the 9th best home offensive efficiency rating in the NBA and average 121.8PPG on their home floor. The Magic are 3-16 SU their last nineteen games when playing without rest and they lose those games by an average of -9.8PPG. Easy call on the Kings here.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Thunder are in a tough scheduling situation here after coming off a huge game against the Boston Celtics last night. Not only that, but they are also playing their 3rd game in four nights and 6th game in nine days. Fatigue is certainly going to be a factor in Atlanta where the Hawks are home and rested. Atlanta is 1-4 SU their last five games but did win their most recent game in Washington. The Hawks have Jalen Johnson back in the starting lineup and now become a deeper team. We are expecting the Hawks to get plenty of extra field goal attempts with the 2nd best offensive rebounding team going up against an OKC team that 29th in defensive rebounding. The Thunder are 28th in rebounding overall while the Hawks are 19th. The Thunder put everything into their game last night against the league leading Celtics and will have little left in the tank to face the rested Hawks.

#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -2 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Billikens have one of the better home court advantages on the Atlantic 10. They are 6-1 this year in Chaifetz Arena with their only loss coming by 5 points vs a Utah State team that has a record of 13-1 on the season. Going back further, St Louis has won 30 of their last 35 home games. They played only 2 home games in December and beat Hofstra and Louisiana Tech, both rated higher than this Loyola team. With this line set at pick-em (opening number) we just need a win here from the Billikens. St Louis is coming off a loss @ NC State on December 20th and they’ve had 2 weeks off to get rested and ready. Loyola has the better record in this game, 8-5 compared to 7-6 for STL, however they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. The Ramblers strength of schedule is outside the top 300 and 5 of their 8 wins have come vs teams rated outside the top 300. They’ve played only 2 true road games this season and lost both by double digits @ Tulsa and @ South Florida, 2 teams rated very similar to this St Louis team. While Loyola has played only 3 games all season vs teams ranked inside the top 100, St Louis has played 5 of their last 6 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100. One key advantage for the host in this game is the Billikens 3 point shooting (53rd nationally in 3 point FG%) vs a Loyola defense ranked 277th defending the arc. At home STL’s shooting gets even better where they’ve hit 42% of their triples. They also get to the line a lot and make them when they get there (76% from the FT line). St Louis was favored by -11 at home vs Loyola last year (won by 19) and now we’re getting just slightly above a pick-em. Value on St Louis at home in this one.

#652 ASA TOP PLAY ON Colorado State -3 or -3.5 over New Mexico, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - CSU comes into this game with a 12-1 SU record with their only loss coming by 3 points vs St Mary’s. In that loss the Rams played without 2 key starters, Lake & Strong, and still nearly beat a solid STM team. Lake has since returned and while Strong is still out, the Rams have adapted having now played 5 games with him on the shelf. They have only 1 loss despite playing a very tough schedule (53rd SOS) and they have 5 wins vs top 100 teams including wins over Colorado and Creighton (top 25 teams). CSU is a fantastic offensive team averaging 85 PPG while ranking 3rd nationally in eFG%, 11th in offensive efficiency and they make 77% of the FT’s. They’ve been held under 80 points only twice this season! New Mexico is also 12-1 on the year but overvalued in our opinion. The Lobos have played a much easier schedule (197th SOS) and this will be just their 3rd road game of the season. Their 2 roadies weren’t overly impressive as they lost big @ St Mary’s and barely beat a NM State, who has a current 6-9 record, on the road by 1 point. New Mexico relies heavily on creating turnovers which won’t work in this one vs a veteran CSU team that turns the ball over just 13.9% of the time (16th nationally). Because of that aggressiveness on defense, the Lobos also foul a lot which will be a problem in this game vs a very good FT shooting team. These 2 MWC teams split last year with each home team winning. The Lobos have lost 5 straight @ Colorado State and we’ll call for 6 in a row tonight. The Rams win and cover at home.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams come into this game red hot with the Celtics on an 11-1 SU run their last twelve games while OKC is 7-1 SU their last eight games. Boston has the 2nd best average margin of victory at +10.2PPG but the Thunder are 3rd at +7.7PPG and OKC has faced a slightly tougher schedule. On a neutral court we would have Boston favored by -3.1 points, so the value is clearly on the Thunder at home where they are 13-5 SU this season +8.4PPG. Looking at recent Thunder games and we see they were recently favored by 2-points at home over Minnesota and minus -6.5-points home vs. the Clippers. The Celtics were recently favored by 4 and 5-points at the Lakers and Clippers and should not be laying points here. Boston lives and dies with the 3-ball as they rank 1st in the NBA in attempts and makes but rank 11th in 3PT%. OKC defends the 3-point line well, ranking 10th in 3PT% defense. The Thunder are the leagues best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and the Celtics are 14th in defending the Arc. That 3-point advantage will be key tonight in what shapes up to be a 1-possession game either way. Grab the points.

#274 ASA PLAY ON 8* LSU -8.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 12 PM ET - LSU head coach Brian Kelly stated this week that the Tigers will have everyone available for this game that played in the season final vs A&M with the exception of QB Daniels. We’ll take him at his word, although you never know during bowl season, and if that’s the case we see this LSU team winning by double digits. Wisconsin has more opt outs / transfers in this game than LSU does. The Badgers have lost 2 of their top 4 WR’s, the top RB, starting center, along with key starter at each level of their defense. Wisconsin struggled to mesh all season in their new offense under OC Longo and with the key players missing, we just don’t think they have enough on that side of the ball to keep up in this one. They finished 77th in total offense and only averaged 22 PPG this season (103rd). Without a rushing attack on Monday (RB Allen out and next RB had 300 yards rushing) they’ll be one dimensional in this game which won’t get it done. LSU doesn’t have a problem on that side of the ball. They led the nation with 46 PPG and while QB Daniels is out, his back up Nussmeier is plenty experienced. In fact Nussmeier led the Tigers in passing yards in last year’s SEC Championship game and Bowl win over Purdue so they’re not stepping down to a freshman or anything like that here. Both top WR’s, each with over 1,000 yards receiving, are slated to play along with their offensive line being in tact. The Badger defense had solid numbers this season but played a massively weak schedule of offenses in the Big 10 West. Seven of Wisconsin’s opponents this year finished the year ranked outside the top 100 in total offense. LSU played the much tougher schedule this season and their numbers were significantly better than Wisconsin’s with a +2.5 YPP differential (Badgers were +0.2) and a +224 point differential (Badgers were +47). We understand there will be a drop off with Nussmeier but it won’t be as much as many anticipate. LSU by double digits.

#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis Colts -4 over Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Las Vegas is coming off a HUGE win over their biggest rivals the Kansas City Chiefs last week in Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce was in tears after the game and the team acted as if they had just won the Division. If we break this game down, we find the Raiders had just 205 total yards of offense and averaged 4.1YPP. They benefited from a fumble recovery for a TD and had a pick’6 for a touchdown. Not to mention, this Chiefs team is not the Chiefs team of years past so that win isn’t nearly as impressive as it looks like. Don’t be fooled by the Raiders QB O’Connell and his last two wins. If you take the games he’s played in and all the other QB’s in the league in that same time period, he rates 40 out of 40 in EPA+completion percentage statistics. We also get the Colts in a great spot here at home off an embarrassing loss in Atlanta last week. Indianapolis was held to less than 100 rushing yards by a solid Falcons rush defense that is 9th best in stopping the run. That won’t be the case this week as the Raiders are 21st in the league, allowing 4.3-Yards Per Rush and give up 122RYPG on the season. The Colts need to establish a running game to help relieve the pressure on QB Minshew and open up the play action pass. Indianapolis is 13th in rushing yards per game at 113.2 RYPG. The Colts have some deficiencies defensively, but the Raiders anemic offense won’t be able to take advantage of that edge. Las Vegas is 29th in total yards gained per game, 27th in yards per play gained, 31st in rushing and 23rd in passing. Las Vegas has struggled on the road this year with a 1-point win in their season opener in Denver and the win last week which wasn’t deserved last week. In between those two road wins they have losses by 28, 7, 18, 22 and 17-points. The Colts have won 5 of their last seven games and will get a double-digit win in this one.

#110 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago Bears -2.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Atlanta can’t be trusted on the road where they have a 2-5 SU record and average only 13.6 PPG. Included in those 5 road losses were setbacks @ Carolina, @ Tennessee, and @ Arizona who have a combined record of 10-35. Their only road wins were by 3 points @ Tampa and by 5 points @ NY Jets and the Birds were outgained by a full 1.0 YPP in that win. In their road games Atlanta averages just 266 YPG (125 fewer than they average at home) and they average 10 fewer PPG away from home. Since Chicago QB Fields returned from injury in November, the Bears are 3-2 SU with their only losses coming @ Detroit and @ Cleveland, both games down to the wire. In fact, in their loss @ Detroit, the Bears led by 12 points with under 4:00 remaining in the game. The Chicago defense has been very good as of late allowing 20 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The only team that topped 20 points during that stretch were the Lions (@ Detroit) and even in that game Detroit had 14 points with under 4:00 minutes remaining. This defense has improved from near the bottom of the NFL at the end of September to their current ranking of 12th in total defense. Over the last 6 weeks, Chicago’s defense ranks 3rd in defense DVOA. The Falcons scored 29 points last week vs Indy and ran for 177 yards on one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. That game was at home for the Falcons, where they are much better offensively, but not they face a Chicago defense that ranks #1 vs the rush (80 rush YPG allowed). That means they’ll most likely have to rely on back up QB Heinecke to have a huge game here. We don’t see that happening. We expect Atlanta to struggle big time offensively in this game. We’re getting a warm weather, indoor team playing in Soldier Field where the forecast calls for a cold & windy Sunday. We like the Bears here.

#112 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Texans -3.5 over Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We have to wonder how focused the Titans will be after a pair of heart-breaking losses the past two weeks to Seattle and this same Houton team by 3-points each. Houston will get a huge boost with the return of QB CJ Stroud and have everything to play for. The Texans control their own destiny and can win the Division but need to win this game and then beat Indianapolis next week. Houston beat the Titans two weeks ago in Tennessee with backup QB Keenum. The Texans defense was outstanding, holding Tennessee to 204 total yards of offense and 3.6YPP. Houston is a drastically different team with Stroud and have been solid overall at home with a 5-3 SU record. The Texans lost at home in Week #2 then reeled off 4-straight wins at home by 24, 7, 2 and 5-points with Stroud under center. These two teams rate out relatively even in terms of DVOA defense, but the Texans are far superior offensively ranking 15th compared to the Titans at 26th. Tennessee has struggled on the road this season with a 1-6 SU record and a negative differential of minus -9.6PPG. As long as CJ Stroud plays we are on the Texans minus the points.

#104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas -5 or -5.5 over Detroit, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Great spot for Dallas in this one. Detroit clinched their first division title in 30 years last week beating Minnesota so they are in. After emotional road win last week, the Lions back on road for the 4th in 5 weeks. This is a huge game for Dallas as they sit 1 game behind the Eagles in the NFC East. A must win here would give them a shot at the division crown and a possible #2 seed while a loss would most likely send the Cowboys to the #5 seed and a road game to open the playoffs. Dallas is off 2 road losses vs 2 of the top teams in the AFC @ Buffalo and @ Miami. Last week they led Miami late before Fins made FG as time expired to win 22-20. The Boys are back home where they are 7-0 and have outscored their opponents by 171 points (+24 PPG). They’ve now won 16 straight home games and their spread mark in those games is 13-3. They are also very tough off a loss with an 8-1 ATS record. Dallas averages 40 PPG at home and they should have a field day vs a Detroit defense that has been trending down for a few months allowing an average of 27 PPG over their last 9. The Lions stats away from home drop off drastically while the Dallas home numbers are great. Dallas at home vs Detroit on the road…Dallas +24 PPG at home – Detroit -1 PPG on road, Dallas +143 YPG at home – Detroit +26 YPG on road, Dallas +1.1 YPP at home – Detroit -0.3 YPP on road. We like the Cowboys to win by at least a TD here.

ASA top play on 10* #572 Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs NY Knicks, 7:10 PM ET - We like the Pacers here as the Knicks are in a tough scheduling situation with this being the second night of a back-to-back. Not only are they playing without rest, but this will also be their 3rd game in four days, 4th game in six days. Now they must face the second fastest paced team in the NBA who is rested and at home. Indiana played extremely well going into the in-season tournament but came back to Earth immediately afterwards. They have seemed to have found their groove again with a pair of wins on the road at Houston and Chicago. New York is 9-9 SU on the road this season with a negative overall differential. Indiana is 8-7 SU at home with an average +/- of plus 6.7PPG. The key advantage the Pacers have is their transition offense which averages the most fastbreak points in the league compared to a Knicks team that allows the 20th most. Lay it with Indiana.

#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming -3.5 over Toledo, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - The Cowboys have big time motivation here to win one for the gipper so to speak. Wyoming’s head coach, Craig Bohl (10 years at Wyoming), has made it known he will retire after this game and he is very well liked by his players so look for a supreme effort from the Cowboys. It looks like they will have nearly everyone available here as well with the exception of 1 starting offensive lineman and 1 defensive back. Toledo, on the other hand, has lost some key parts, especially on offense, where starting QB Finn (2,600 yards passing & 560 yards rushing) has already transferred to Baylor and starting RB Boone (1400 yards rushing) is in the portal as well. Not to mention Toledo head coach Candle was rumored as a potential HC at a number of other programs and seems to be every season which has been a distraction. Speaking of Candle, he’s been a terrible bowl coach which might have something to do with his name coming up each year for openings at this time of year. Candle is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS his last 5 bowl games and Toledo was favored in 4 of those games. On top of that, the MAC was a terrible conference this season which led to Toledo having a strength of schedule ranking of 130th. The MAC bowl game blunders are also well documented as the conference has a SU bowl record of 14-55 their last 69 post season games. Rockets back up QB Gleason has some experience but this team relies heavily on the run (11th in rushing YPG) and he is not even in the same stratosphere at Finn when it comes to running the ball. This team has basically lost 2,000 yards on the ground to the transfer portal which will be nearly impossible to overcome here. The Rockets overall defensive stats look impressive but they didn’t face a single team in MAC play that was ranked higher than 79th in total offense and 7 of their conference opponents ranked 100th or lower in total offense. Wyoming played the much tougher schedule and beat solid bowl non-conference teams Texas Tech and Appalachian State. Veteran Wyoming QB Peasley (2 year starter) had a solid season with 20 TD’s and just 5 interceptions and led the Cowboys to 84 points over their final 2 games. Wyoming is 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 bowl games and we like them to win and cover this one.

#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -8 over East Tennessee State, Friday at 7 PM ET - ETSU is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. They are a bad shooting team making just 39% of their shots on the year (352nd) and they hit only 30% of their triples so far this season (308th). They have one player in their rotation that has hit better than 42% of their shots this season and only 2 players that have made more than 32% of their 3’s. On the road it’s worse. They have a 1-5 SU record away from home and they are averaging only 63 PPG on the road while making 38% of their FG attempts. They are facing an ECU team that has 7 wins at home this season while averaging 77 PPG in their own arena. The Pirates do have 3 losses at home this season but 2 of those came with 2nd leading scorer and top rebounder Johnson out with an injury. Their only loss at home while at full strength was vs South Carolina and that was a tight loss 68-62, a game ECU led with less than 4:00 minutes remaining. Their only other loss since November was vs Florida and that was another close one losing 70-65. The Pirates should have a nice advantage at the charity stripe as they get to the line often (95th in percentage of points from the FT line) and ETSU fouls a lot averaging 21 fouls per game (29th most in the nation). ECU has 80% of their minutes back from last season and they’ve added 2 key transfers from Kansas & LSU. ETSU has won only 9 of their last 35 road games and we like the Pirates to roll at home in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors are playing better of late with wins in 5 of their last six games. The lone loss in that stretch was their most recent game on Christmas Day in Denver. Golden State has won 8 straight at home including an impressive win over the Boston Celtics. The Warriors last five games numbers are significantly better than their overall numbers on the season. In their last five games they have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.237-points per possession and a DEFF of 1.167PPP. Miami has some solid road numbers including a 9-6 SU record and a +2.8PPG differential. The Heat though have played the 27th easiest schedule to date compared to the Warriors who have faced the 3rd toughest. Going back to the start of last season, the Warriors are 36-25 ATS at home with an average margin of victory of +6.1PPG. Miami is off a big upset win in Philly on Christmas Day and now travels across the country to face a motivated Warriors team as Miami won the most recent meeting last season so this is a revenge spot for the Warriors. Lay the short number.

#711 ASA PLAY ON UC Santa Barbara -2 over UC Davis, Friday at 9 PM ET - Both teams have had a full week plus off entering this game so both should be healthy and rested. UCSB is 7-3 on the season but that is a deceiving record as 2 of their 3 losses came with PG Mitchell, a potential first round draft choice, out with an injury. With Mitchell in the line up the Gauchos are 7-1 with their lone loss coming @ New Mexico who currently has an 11-1 record and the Lobos are a top 35 team per KenPom. Mitchell is averaging 20 PPG while shooting 52% from the field, 47% from beyond the arc, and 88% from the FT line. He and the Gauchos should have a field day offensively vs a UC Davis team that ranks outside the top 300 in 2 point FG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. UCSB is hitting 51% of their shots this season (7th nationally), 38.5% of their 3’s (30th nationally) and averaging 83 PPG. While Santa Barbara is averaging 83 PPG, UC Davis has scored more than 83 points just once this season vs Jessup College. Davis is 5-6 on the year with 2 wins vs non Division 1 opponents (Jessup & California Merced) and their 3 other wins all came vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They’ve faced 4 teams ranked inside the top 200 (UCSB is 140th) and the Aggies lost all of those games by double digits. UCSB has dominated this Big West series winning 7 straight meetings and 4 of those games were @ UC Davis. Lay the small number here.

ASA top play on 10* CLEVELAND BROWNS -7.5 vs. NY Jets, 8:15 PM ET - The oddsmakers are trying to scare you off this bet with a line of minus -7.5 but in reality, the number is too low in our estimation. Consider this, the Jets were recently plus +7 points in Miami with starting QB Wilson. Back in late November they were plus +8.5 at Buffalo, again with Wilson. Cleveland is better defensively than both those teams by a wide margin, especially when playing at home. With the resurgence of QB Flacco they aren’t too far behind those teams offensively. Cleveland gives up just 13.1PPG when playing at home, allows 3.7 yards per play, 87.4 rushing YPG and 110.5 passing yards per game. The Jets offense has been atrocious on the road with averages of 12PPG, 4.7YPP and 249 total YPG. Don’t be fooled by the Jets 30-points in a thrilling late game win over the Redskins, whose defense has been shredded of late allowing 34.3PPG in their last three games. Prior to that game the Jets managed 0 points on the road against a Dolphins defense that isn’t anywhere near as good as the Browns. New York has scored 10, 13, 12, 6 and 0 in five of their six road games this season. The Browns offense has put up 31, 20 and 36 points in three straight wins and have averaged 372YPG over that stretch of games which is 4th most in the NFL. Cleveland is winning at home by an average of +7.4PPG while the Jets have the 3rd worst net differential on the road of minus -11.2PPG.

ASA play on 8* Minnesota Timberwolves -9.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - These two teams come into this game in very different situations as the Wolves have been off for a few days and is off an embarrassing loss in Oklahoma City. Dallas is playing their 4th game in seven days, 3rd in four and 2nd of a back-to-back. When playing with rest advantage the Wolves are 21-10-1 ATS their last thirty-two with a +/- of +7.2PPG. Dallas is 8-10-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season when playing without rest. If you are thinking this line is too high, it’s really not. Minnesota was just favored by -2-points in Dallas which actually makes this number a little light. Minnesota has the 3rd best average home differential in the NBA at +11.9PPG and they’ve won 12 of 13 at home this season. 8 of their twelve home wins have come by double-digits. Given the circumstances we will lay the points in this one against a fatigued Mavs team.

#253 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State +2.5 over Kansas State, Thursday at 5:45 PM ET - We really like the way this NC State team played down the stretch. We could argue by the end of the season this was the 2nd best team in the ACC behind FSU. The Wolfpack won 6 of their last 7 games including beating bowl teams UNC (by 19), Clemson (by 7), Miami (by 14), and Virginia Tech (by 7). The Pack also covered 6 of their last 7 games to close out the season. Their only 3 losses came at the hands of Notre Dame, Louisville, and Duke which was their only real clunker this season. Veteran QB Armstrong, transfer from UVA, lost his job midway through the season but gained it back and was terrific down the stretch completing 70% of his passes for 6 TDs (0 interceptions) over the last 3 games also adding over 200 yards rushing in those 3 games. NCSU has some opt outs in the transfer portal but the vast majority are not depth chart guys. Most of their starters are playing in this one. The same can’t be said for KSU. The Cats had a solid 8-4 season but they are missing a large amount of key guys for this one. That includes QB Will Howard (2,600 yards passing / 350 yards rushing), 2nd leading rusher Ward, and KSU’s top 2 pass catchers WR Brooks and TE Sinnott. Those 4 players alone have accounted for nearly 5,000 yards this season (passing, receiving, and rushing). On top of that, offensive coordinator Klein has also left the program to become the OC at Texas A&M. We’ll take the team that sits nearly full strength entering this game as a dog. NC state it is.

#251 ASA PLAY ON 8* Rutgers -2 over Miami FL, Thursday at 2:15 PM ET - Miami is a program that has struggled in bowl games for a few decades. They are just 2-11 both SU & ATS in bowls since 2005. The Canes seem to always have higher aspirations entering the season and when they are stuck in a lower tier bowl, they simply don’t show up. We have a strong feeling that will be the case again this year. Are the Canes happy about traveling north to colder weather and facing Rutgers in Yankee Stadium. We doubt it. They are down to their 3rd string QB Brown after starter Van Dyke transferred to Wisconsin after the season ended and back up Williams is injured. Brown picked up some minimal experience last season but did not take a single snap in a game this year. As a whole it looks like 9 or 10 Miami starters will sit this one out. Huge coaching advantage here with Rutgers Greg Schiano (5-2 in bowl games) taking on Mario Cristobal who used to be on his staff the first time around at Rutgers. While Cristobal You can guarantee the Scarlet Knights are happy to be here. This is nearly a home game for the Scarlet Knights just 50 miles away from Yankee Stadium. They were not in a bowl game last season and haven’t won in the post season since 2014 so Rutgers really wants this one. Unlike Miami, the Knights have very few opt outs including on their defense with a number of key players deciding to come back next season. A defense that ranked in the top 20 nationally and they will be facing an inexperienced QB as we mentioned. They also got word that top RB Monangia (1,100 yards rushing) will return next season giving this program lots of momentum heading into the bowl game. With potential rain and wind chills in the 40’s on Thursday afternoon, we could see Miami being a bit disinterested in this one. Rutgers is the play.

#248 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -2 over Texas A&M, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This game opened A&M favored and has flipped to OSU a small favorite. We agree with the move and still feel there is some value on the Cowboys. A&M has been decimated through opt outs, portal, and in the coaching staff. More than half the Aggies starters won’t play in this game and we’re hearing it could be more as we approach game time. That includes their top 2 QB’s who won’t play in this game leaving 3rd stringer Henderson to start under center. He’s had some experience late in the season in A&M’s last 3 games but had almost zero snaps in his previous 2 seasons at Fresno State. Head coach Jimbo Fisher was fired and OC Petrino left for Arkansas. The Aggies DC Robinson has been in charge of bowl prep and he’s leaving to be the DC at Syracuse as soon as this game is finished. Way too much upheaval for this Texas A&M team to think they’ll be fully focused on this one (players and coaches). OSU is coming off a blowout loss in the Big 12 Championship vs Texas and they lost their bowl game last year so this team is motivated to win. A win would also give them 10 wins for the 8th time in head coach Gundy’s tenure. Speaking of Gundy, he is a veteran to the bowl scene appearing in 16 previous bowl games and has been very successful with an 11-5 SU record. They have almost nobody in the portal of significance and the Cowboys are all in here. A&M just 3-3 their last 3 games and their wins were over Abilene Christian (FCS), Miss State (non bowl team), and South Carolina (non bowl team). In fact, the Aggies beat ONE bowl team all season and that was Auburn way back in September and that was when A&M had everyone on board. Okie State beat solid bowl teams Oklahoma, Kansas State, Kansas, and WVU this season and as we mentioned they will be the motivated team here. Take the Cowboys on Wednesday.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 vs NY Knicks, 8 PM ET - We are not concerned about the Thunder playing last night as they were able to give extended minutes to several bench players. OKC had a remarkable shooting night at 60% against the best defensive team in the NBA and now face a Knicks team that is average in that regard. New York allows opponents to make 47.5% of their FG attempts which ranks 18th in the league. One key advantage the Thunder have here is their 3-point shooting as they have the 2nd best 3PT percentage in the NBA at 38.6%. The Knicks allow foes to hit 37.3% which is 19th worst in the league. The Knicks are average in most key offensive categories and the Thunder hold the 2nd best FG% defense and are 12th in defending the 3-point line. This line is a bargain considering the Thunder were just favored by 2-points against the T-Wolves, -3.5 vs. the Lakers and -6.5 vs. the Clippers who all grade out higher than the Knicks. OKC has a positive differential of +7PPG at home this season and should get a win by that margin here.

#241 ASA PLAY ON 8* Virginia Tech -10.5 over Tulane, Wednesday at 2 PM ET - One team in this game has a ton of distractions leading up to this game (Tulane) and the other has almost none (Va Tech). Tulane’s head coach Willie Fritz has already taken the head job at Houston and won’t be on the sidelines for this game. He is taking his OC, DC, WR coach, and DL coach with him to Houston. Those assistants will coach in this game but we can’t imagine this staff is fully invested at this point. On top of that, the Green Wave will be without their starting QB Pratt, their top 3 WR’s, starting TE, along with 5 or 6 defensive starters. This team was trending down the last month and a half or so even when they were at full strength. 3 of their final 5 wins were by 3 points or less with 2 of those wins coming vs non bowl teams Tulsa and ECU. In their regular season finale they were outgained by UTSA but benefitted from 5 turnovers to pick up a win. In the AAC Championship game, a home game for Tulane, they were dominated by SMU who finished the game with a -2 turnover margin AND was without their starting QB yet still won by double digits. Va Tech has very few opt outs, a young coach in his 2nd year with the program, and they are on the rise. This is a very important game for the Hokies who were 3-8 last year in HC Pry’s first year (didn’t make a bowl game) and they’ve improved to 6-6 this year and are shooting for a winning record. The Hokies have almost every one of their key players playing in this bowl game. Virginia Tech played the tougher schedule compared to Tulane but the key numbers (YPG & YPP differential) were almost dead even. And that was with the Green Wave at full strength which we’ve stated they won’t be for this bowl game. The Hokies played 8 bowl teams this year and outgained those teams by an average of +40 YPG. Their offense was really clicking down the stretch with the exception of their game vs Louisville who has a top 15 defense. In their final 5 games (minus the Louisville game) the Hokies averaged 40 PPG. This one is in Annapolis, Maryland which is a 4 hour & 30 minute drive from Blacksburg so Virginia Tech so we look for a Hokie home crowd here. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - We really liked this game when it opened at -3.5 but there is still value at the current number with New Orleans. These same two teams just met on this court last week with Memphis winning by 2-points on a Ja Morant game winner. The Pelicans were favored by -8.5-points in that game, hence the value here. It’s a great situation to back New Orleans as they are off a home loss to the Rockets while Memphis has won 3 straight since the return of Morant. The Grizzlies upset this Pelicans team, then won at home against a Pacers team that is trending down, then beat a Hawks team that is 3-8 their last eleven. New Orleans is a solid home team with a 33-23 ATS record and a plus/minus of +4.6PPG dating back to the start of last season. Memphis is 22-36 ATS on the road since the start of last year with a +/- of -3.8PPG. With the quick turnaround between these two teams we like the situation and scheduling to back the Pelicans at home.

ASA Top Play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs Golden State Warriors – 2:30 PM ET - This Warriors team is not your Warriors team from the past. The aging roster is catching up to them and we don’t see them as a relevant contender this season in the West. Denver on the other hand has the best starting five in the NBA and clearly are one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver doesn’t lose very often at home with a 71.1% winning percentage at home since the start of the 2020 season. Since the start of last season the Nuggets are 55-10 SU with an average +/- of +10PPG. Golden State has really struggled on the road the past two season with a 18-43 SU record and a loss margin of minus -3.6PPG. Denver has won 4 straight in the series, including a 3-point win earlier this season at home. Denver owns the 8th best 3-point percentage defense in the NBA and can limit Curry and Crew from Deep. Lay the points.

#234 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -8.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We give SJSU the situational edge here as they have already played in Hawaii on this field this season rolling over the Rainbows 35-0. That means we expect this to be a business trip for the Spartans rather than a potential vacation. Coastal, on the other hand, is making their first trip to the islands so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is more of a “getaway” type situation for the Chanticleers. San Jose State starting QB Cordiero should have plenty of motivation as well returning to his home state where he played HS football and was the starting QB for Hawaii before transferring. These 2 teams are both 7-5 entering this bowl game but SJSU played the tougher schedule with all 5 losses coming vs bowl teams including Pac 12 opponents USC and Oregon State. Down the stretch the Spartans were fantastic winning 6 straight games with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. Their only tight games was in the regular season finale where they beat UNLV on the road 37-31, a Rebel team that played in the MWC Championship game. Despite the fairly close final score, San Jose led that game by 20 points with just over 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Coastal Carolina has had many more opt outs in this game (19 in the transfer portal one of the highest of any bowl team) including starting QB McCall and his backup Guest. 3rd stringer Vasko, a redshirt freshman, did start their final 3 of their final 4 games when the first 2 QB’s were injured but he’s still very inexperienced compared to SJSU starter Cordiero who has thrown for 12,000 career yards and 87 TD’s. The Spartans seem to be highly motivated to get this win after finishing in a 3 way tie for the Mountain West title but were left out of the Championship game which were determined by computer rankings. “We’re going into this game and we want to win,” senior safety Tre Jenkins said. “Not even win close. We want to dominate. Especially because we just got a bad taste in our mouth not going to the (Mountain West Championship).” This SJSU offense averaged 39 PPG over their last 6 and we think they roll over a decimated Coastal Carolina team that had to make the long trip from Myrtle Beach SC to the islands.

#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Mary’s -12.5 over Missouri State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - St Mary’s has been a completely different team at home compared to on the road. We were on the Gaels last Saturday when they beat UNLV by 2 points on a neutral court in Phoenix but failed to cover the 6 point spread. Since that game they have played 2 home games winning by a combined score of 163-90 vs two solid opponents, Middle Tennessee State and Northern Kentucky. STM did have a rare home loss back in November vs Weber State in a game they blew a 16 point second half lead. They are 6-0 in their other 6 home games winning all by at least 13 points. The Gaels have won 5 straight games including a very impressive win @ Colorado State who is currently ranked 30th in the nation per KenPom. In their one home game vs a similar rated opponent, STM beat a very good Davidson team by 34 points as an 11 point favorite (Davidson is ranked 115th and tonight’s opponent Missouri State is ranked 116th). This is a fantastic defensive team ranking 12th nationally in efficiency allowing only 0.92 PPP and they are allowing only 53 PPG at home. The Gaels have struggled away from home offensively but when playing in University Credit Union Pavilion, where they’ve won 40 of their last 43 games, they are averaging nearly 80 PPG this season. Missouri State topped Lindenwood by 22 points at home on Tuesday (we were on Mizzou St) and now make the long trip to the west coast. The Bears have played 4 road games this season and lost all 4 averaging only 64 PPG (in regulation) in those losses. Now facing the best defense they’ve seen this year, we don’t expect much offensively from MSU. The Bears have faced only one top 100 team this season and lost that game by 17 points vs Drake. St Mary’s will be the best team Missouri State has faced this season and we look for an easy win for the home team.

#232 ASA PLAY ON 8* Northwestern +6.5 over Utah, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Is Utah really excited to be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl after spending the last 2 seasons in Pasadena competing in the Rose Bowl? We would highly doubt it. This team has much higher goals this season as they expected to compete for the Pac 12 title. The lack of excitement could be attributed to the Utes large number of players in the portal (14). The Utah coach staff had to convince QB Barnes (who is already in the portal) to stay and play in this game or they were going to have to start their 4th string QB who has attempted 10 passes in his career. Barnes was originally the 3rd string QB behind Cam Rising and Nate Johnson who were both injured this season. A weird, and not ideal, situation for the Utes having their QB having to be convinced to play in the bowl but leaving for another school as soon as it’s over. They will also be missing top WR Vele, the only player with over 300 yards receiving, along with a number of key defensive players including both starting safeties. Northwestern is thrilled to be in a bowl after finishing 1-11 last season, losing their head coach Fitzgerald right before this season, and being left for dead by most. They rallied for a 7-5 season under interim head coach Braun who has been given the head coaching job and the players love him. The Cats have almost no opt outs and played very well down the stretch winning 4 of their final 5 games with their only loss coming by 3 points vs Iowa the Big 10 West champ. All 4 of those wins at the end of the season came vs bowl teams. On the other hand, Utah lost 3 of their final 5 games and struggled to beat a Colorado team that had nothing to play for in the season finale with the Utes winning by only 6 points as 22 point favorites. That lackluster effort in their home finale might be a peak into the lack of motivation for this team late in the season. The NW offense received a big boost late in the season when starting QB Bryant returned from injury (was injured in late September) and let the Wildcats to 3 straight wins while completing over 67% of his passes in those 3 games. We like NW to have a shot at the upset here and expect a close game either way. Take the points.

#226 ASA PLAY ON 8* Air Force +2 over James Madison, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We know Air Force is 100% all in today to play in the Armed Forces Bowl. We’re not so sure about James Madison. While JMU is playing in their first bowl game ever, they have a ton of distractions leading into this one. Their head coach Cignetti took the head coaching job at Indiana and won’t be around for this one. Not only that, Cignetti took a large portion of his staff with him and JMU had to turn to a number of temporary coaches simply to get them through their bowl practices. Nearly half (10) of the Dukes starters have also entered the transfer portal including QB McCloud and while many (including McCloud) are still planning on playing in this game, it will be a distraction at the very least. JMU has a very good run defense, one of the best in the nation statistically, however they’ve never faced an offense like Air Force will present. They’ve been trying to get up to speed on practice to defend the option type attack with a makeshift coaching staff as we suggested. That’s really tough to do. Air Force began the season with a perfect 8-0 record before playing poorly down the stretch losing 4 straight games. Injuries were a key part in their downfall, including starting QB Larrier who was on the shelf for 3 of those 4 losses. With a full month off since their regular season finale, the Falcons are as healthy as they have been since October including Larrier who is slated to start this game at QB. Let’s not forget when this AF team was healthy, they were an unbeaten team that has the 2nd best rushing attack in the country (276 YPG) and a defense that ranked in the top 15 in both total defense and YPP allowed. We’ll side with the small dog with a veteran coach (Troy Calhoun has coached in 12 bowl games) that has won 4 straight bowl games. Air Force gets the win on Saturday.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +4.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 7:40 PM ET - We are grabbing the value with the Nets here at home plus the points. These two teams recently met in Denver where the Nuggets were favored by -9-points. That means this line should be Denver minus 1 or 2 points. The Nets were in the middle of a tough road stretch and were playing the second night of a back-to-back in altitude. They shot horribly at 41% overall and made just 8 of 30 3-point attempts. The Nuggets were just favored by this same spread in Toronto who we grade slightly worse than Brooklyn. The Nuggets road numbers aren’t great at 7-8 SU with an average point differential of minus -0.4PPG. Brooklyn is 8-5 SU at home with the 12th best average margin of victory at +6.8PPG. We like the Nets to get a bit of revenge here from that recent loss in Denver. Grab the points.

#219 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Florida -4.5 over Georgia Tech, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Both teams are 6-6 on the season but we feel this UCF team is undervalued and better than their record. Half of their losses this season came with starting QB Plumlee out with an injury. They were just 1-3 SU when Plumlee was sidelined and the only win during that stretch was vs an FCS team. The Knights outgained their opponents by +100 YPG on the season and even vs bowl teams they were +31 YPG. That was mainly in a very tough Big 12 Conference. Georgia Tech played in the weaker ACC and was outgained on the season. UCF had the stronger strength of schedule and had the much better key numbers overall with a +85 point differential (GT was +8), a +100 YPG differential (GT was -10) and a +1.3 YPP differential (GT was dead even). And those numbers included the games that Plumlee was on the shelf or we’d be looking at an even more lopsided situation in the stats. We’re also getting a massive strength vs weakness situation in this game in favor of the Golden Knights. They run the ball for an average of 233 YPG (4th in the nation) on 5.7 YPC (5th in the nation). Plumlee being healthy at QB is a huge part of that success. They are facing a Tech defense that allows 225 YPG rushing (131st out of 133 teams) on 5.4 YPG (130th). This game is also being played in Tampa, Florida which obviously benefits UCF. The opt outs and portals are fairly minimal on each side however 2 of the bigger transfers are on the Georgia Tech defense with their top CB and top DE out. We like UCF to win this one by at least a TD.

#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -4 over New Orleans Saints, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Both teams enter this game with 7-7 records but we feel the Saints are overvalued at this point in the season. They are coming of 2 straight wins which were impressive on the scoreboard, however those wins were vs Carolina and NY Giants. Their win over the Panthers was very deceiving as New Orleans was outgained in that game (at home) by 100 yards but had a defensive TD. On top of that they had 2 TD drives of 44 yards or less after Carolina turnovers. Last Sunday’s win over NYG was a bit more impressive however they caught the G-Men on a short week after beating GB on Monday night. The Saints wins this year have come vs Carolina (twice), New England, NY Giants, Chicago (with backup QB), Tennessee and Indy. The Colts are the only team in that group currently with a winning record. The Rams are surging winning 4 of their last 5 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in OT. They’ve also covered 4 straight. Speaking of covering, Rams HC McVay has been great late in the season with an ATSU record of 17-4-1 his last 22 December games including 10-1-1 ATS at home in December. The LA offense has been clicking on all cylinders as of late averaging 33 PPG, 425 YPG and more than 6.0 YPP over their last 4 games. Not only that, 2 of those games came vs Cleveland and Baltimore, who rank 1st and 2nd in the NFL in total defense. The New Orleans defense looked good at home the past 2 weeks vs terrible offenses (NYG & Carolina) but prior to that they had allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their previous 6 games. Prior to their 2 wins the last 2 weeks vs poor competition, the Saints had lost 5 of their previous 7 games with all of those losses coming by at least 5 points. New Orleans is just 6-14-1 ATS their last 21 games following a win and we like the Rams to win this one by a TD or more. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 8 PM ET - The Clippers trade for Harden seems to be working out as they’ve won 9 games in a row, including a road win last night in Dallas. L.A. is now playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back in OKC. The Thunder have been off since the 18th and they’ve won 6 of their last eight games. The Thunder are coming off two straight impressive wins in Denver and at home against Memphis by 19-points. Oklahoma City is winning at home by an average of +7.3PPG which is the 10th best number in the NBA. When playing without rest the Clippers are 7-12 SU since the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -3.1PPG. The Clippers typically beat teams by shooting a high percentage but that will be tough to do tonight against an OKC team that is 2nd in opponents FG% overall and 9th in defending the 3-point line. The Thunder also shoot it just as well as the Clippers from beyond the arc (4th) and overall (4th). The scheduling clearly favors the Thunder at home.

#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas Little Rock -2.5 over Jacksonville State, Thursday at 3 PM ET - This is a really good situational spot for UALR. They are playing their 3rd straight home game and haven’t been on the road since December 7th. After a rough 1-5 start, Little Rock has turned the corner winning 5 of their last 7 games and 5 of their last 6 at home. They are catching Jacksonville State in a tough spot. The Gamecocks play @ Wisconsin last Thursday, then traveled to Texas on Monday to face Tarleton State, and now a few days later they are on the road in Arkansas to play an afternoon game. JSU is coming off an upset win @ Tarleton State on Monday winning by 3 as a 4.5 point dog. They trailed for most of the game in that win (down 12 with 9:00 minutes remaining) and took their first lead of the 2nd half with barely over 2:00 minutes remaining. They still were down with under 40 seconds left before pulling out the win. Now traveling again after that come from behind win could be tough for JSU today. UALR has played well at home with a 6-2 SU & ATS mark so far this season. They are averaging 82 PPG at home with a +7 PPG point differential. They are hitting 49% of their shots at home this season and nearly 40% of their triples. They will be facing a fatigued JSU offense that simply isn’t a very good shooting team that ranks 266th in eFG% and makes less than 30% of their 3’s. We’ll lay the small number with the home team on Thursday afternoon.

#687 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -2.5 over Oklahoma, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This isn’t a true home game for UNC but it’s being played in Charlotte so the crowd will be heavily in favor of the Heels. They are sort of in must win mode coming off back to back losses vs UConn and Kentucky, both on neutral courts. Those aren’t the only 2 high level teams UNC has played this year as their strength of schedule ranks 21st in the country per KenPom. They have solid wins vs Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida State. The Sooners are undefeated but they’ve played an ultra easy slate ranking 336th in SOS. They have played 7 home games and just 3 neutral site games. This will be the closest thing to a true road game Oklahoma has played this season. Half of their opponents this season currently rank 295th or lower while North Carolina hasn’t played a single team ranked that low and more than half of their games (6) have come vs teams inside the top 100. The Sooners have very good overall defensive numbers, however we need to account for their weak schedule when sifting through that. They have faced only 3 offenses currently ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency and the average offensive efficiency of the 10 teams they’ve faced is 202nd. Now they take on a Tar Heel team that ranks 9th in the country in offensive efficiency and is averaging 85 PPG on the season. Offensively, Oklahoma has put up some big numbers at home this year (vs mainly poor competition) but in their 3 games away from home (all neutral court) they’ve been held below their PPP season average. That was vs 3 defensive teams (Iowa, Arkansas, and USC) who’s defensive efficiency numbers are not as good as this UNC team. We feel this is just a really good spot for Carolina needing a win after a few losses vs a team that has padded their early season record vs a poor SOS. Lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:10 PM ET - We have admittedly been slow to get on the Rockets bandwagon but will side with them tonight at home against the Hawks. If you haven’t been paying attention, the Rockets are 11-1 SU at home and the only loss came back in the first week of the season to Golden State. They have beaten some of the best teams in the league at home including: the Kings (twice) Lakers, Pelicans, Nuggets (twice) and Thunder. Houston’s average Margin of Victory at home is 4th best in the NBA at +12.8PPG. The Hawks have OK road numbers with an average MOV of +0.5PPG and a 6-6 SU record but most recently they’ve struggled with a 2-6 SU record in their last eight road contests. Their last four road wins have come against teams with losing records with 2 of those coming at the Spurs and at Washington, two of the worst teams in the league. Houston is coming off a 3-game road stint with a win in Memphis and two tightly contested losses in Milwaukee and Cleveland. Atlanta has been a fade team all season long with a 6-20 ATS record while the Rockets are 16-7-1 ATS. We expect that trend to continue tonight and will back Houston.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4 at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 PM ET - Toronto used to have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA but that hasn’t been the case this season. The Raptors are 8-7 SU with an average point differential of +1.4PPG. In their last five games at home, they have a pair of unimpressive wins against poor teams such as Charlotte and Atlanta and losses to good teams Miami and New York. Toronto is just 3-4 SU at home against teams with a current winning record. Denver is not a deep team but their starting five is as good as anyone in the NBA. They recently went through a stretch of games without PG Murray but he’s back now and the Nuggets have won 4 of their last five games. Denver has played the 8th toughest schedule yet still has an average point differential of +4.8PPG which is 7th highest in the league. Toronto has faced a much weaker schedule, and their net point differential is -1.7PPG. These two teams are relatively even in defensive efficiency, but the Nuggets hold a big advantage when it comes to offensive efficiency, averaging 1.185PPP compared to the Raptors 1.133PPP. At this price we will back the World Champs minus the points.

#630 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -17.5 over Lindenwood, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Like this spot for Mizzou State as they enter this game having lost 3 of their last 4 games so should be fully focused on rolling over this bad Lindenwood team. The Bears most recent game was a 1 point loss @ Tulsa, a game they led by 10 with 5:00 minutes remaining. All 4 of MSU’s losses this year have come on the road (7-4 overall record) and their home winning margin is +13.5 PPG. Three of their four home opponents were ranked inside the top 200 while Lindenwood is currently ranked 333rd (out of 362). Lindenwood is also in a tough spot coming off a rare road win @ IUPUI who is ranked 359th or the 4th worst team in the country. The Lions were 0-4 on the road coming into that game vs a terrible IUPUI team and they lost those 4 games by an average margin of -28 PPG. Lindenwood has now won only 3 of their last 21 road games dating back to the start of last year and 13 of those losses have come by double digits. They are bad on both ends of the court ranking 343rd in offensive efficiency and 285th in defensive efficiency. The Lions are a poor offensive team that averages only 60 PPG on the road this season and they rank outside the top 300 in FG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. They are facing a Missouri State defense that has been outstanding 14th in the nation in eFG% defense and top 35 in both 2 point FG and 3 point FG percentage defense. On offense the Bears are averaging 85 PPG at home and hitting nearly 49% of their shots. Now facing a Lindenwood defense that allows over 80 PPG on the road. This one should be a blowout.

#202 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Old Dominion -3 over Western Kentucky, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - This WKY beat only 1 bowl team all season long (South Florida) and now they’ve been decimated by the transfer portal including nearly their entire starting offensive line opting to move on. There is now talk that starting QB Reed may also sit this game out but nothing definitive on that yet. If it happens this line will go up so play it now at -2.5 (line as of Friday). Even when they had their entire team in tact, the Hilltoppers were 1-7 SU vs bowl teams, were outscored by an average of 12 PPG in those games and outgained by nearly 130 YPG. With all the turnover we’re not sure this team is all that excited to be here. ODU, on the other hand, is thrilled to be in this bowl game and fought like crazy to get here. They played a solid schedule with 10 bowl teams and they won 4 of those games. In their home finale, a game they needed for bowl eligibility, the Monarchs trailed Georgia State 19-0 at half and fought back for a 25-24 win. They’ve only been in 2 bowl games in their history, the most recent a few years ago in 2021. We expected ODU to control the trenches in this game even before WKY lost nearly their entire offensive line. The Monarchs rushed for an impressive 183 YPG vs bowl teams and they are facing a Hilltopper defense that ranks 123rd at stopping the run and vs bowl teams they allowed 243 YPG on the ground. Meanwhile Western barely averages 100 YPG rushing and ODU’s defense allowed just 3.4 YPC vs other bowl teams. Old Dominion played the tougher schedule, the 2 teams had very similar YPG & YPP differential, and the Monarchs team is more in tact right now when compared to Western Kentucky. We’ll lay the small number in this one.

ASA play on 8* Baltimore Ravens -2.5 or -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 8:20 PM ET - The Ravens are playing for the #1 seed in the AFC and are playing like the best team in the AFC. Jacksonville had some early season success with favorable luck but have lost 3 of their last five games. The Jags have lost two straight to the Bengals with Jake Browning at QB and the Browns with Joe Flacco. Now they face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens who have the 2nd best overall DVOA rating in the NFL, rank 5th offensively and 2nd defensively. A perfect comparison can be made when the 49ers came to Jacksonville earlier this season as a 3-point favorite and won 34-3. Baltimore’s ten wins this season have all come by 3 or more points. You could argue that this team should be undefeated at this point. They lost in late September to the Colts in OT, completely outplayed the Steelers and lost by 7-points and in their 3rd loss of the season it took a late pick’6 by the Browns to seal their fate. The Jags true home wins are not impressive as they’ve come against the Colts and Titans. Jacksonville is 8-5 on the season but are more like a .500 team statistically. They rank 16th in offensive DVOA and 8th in defensive DVOA but they had ranked as high as 3rd just a few weeks ago. Last season the Jags beat the Ravens 28-27 so it’s not likely Baltimore will be looking past this opponent. Lay the points.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +7 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade Milwaukee and back a red hot Rockets team. Houston has won 5 straight games and that includes a pair of wins over OKC and Denver. This Rockets team is tenacious defensively ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.082 points per possession. In comparison the Bucks rank 23rd. The Bucks have won three straight and 8 of their last ten but take a look at who they’ve played. Milwaukee has not faced a defense of this caliber since November 22nd at Boston and they lost by 3-points. In their last ten games the Bucks have faced 8 teams that rank in the bottom third of the NBA in total defense. Milwaukee has played THE easiest schedule in the NBA, the Rockets have faced the 12th toughest. Grab the points with Houston.

ASA top play on 10* Green Bay Packers -3 or -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM ET - Everyone who watched the Monday night game will be jumping off the Packers bandwagon here but we like the situation to ‘buy low’ on Green Bay. We expect the Packers to bounce back off that ugly showing and play as they did in the three previous games. Green Bay has also won 3 straight at home against the Rams, Chargers and Chiefs. The Bucs are coming off a huge win over the Falcons in a game that they were thoroughly outplayed. Tampa Bay was outgained 290 to 434 by Atlanta and averaged 4.3 yards per play which was a full 2.0 less YPP than the Falcons. The Bucs defense is decimated with injuries right now and it’s shown on the field as they allow 5.6YPP (27th), 363YPG (27th) and can’t stop the pass giving up the 30th most passing yards per game at 264YPG. The Packers are averaging the 9th most passing YPG over their last 3 games and have put up the 9th most total YPG in that same time frame. The Bucs rank in the lower third of the NFL in most key offensive categories including total YPG, yards per play, yards per rush and rank 20th in passing YPG. In their last three home games, the Packers defense has allowed 20-points or less and they have much better statistics at Lambeau than on the road. We like the Packers at home by double-digits.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta Falcons -2.5 or -3 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Huge game for the Falcons who are tied for the NFC South lead with Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Atlanta is off a deceiving home loss vs TB but outplayed the Bucs big time in that game. The Birds outgained the Bucs 434 to 290 yards and they were +2.0 YPP in that loss. They had won 2 straight prior to last week’s tough loss so the Falcons could easily be on a 3 game winning streak. Last week’s loss gives us some value here with the number where it is at -3. Carolina is now 1-12 after getting blown out @ New Orleans last week. They are dead last in point differential on the season losing by an average of 11 PPG. The Panthers are getting outgained by 1.0 YPP and their only win this season came by a mere 2 points. We’re laying only a FG here and every loss Carolina has had this year has come by at least 3 points and 9 of their 12 losses have come by at least a TD. The Panthers offense is the worst in the NFL averaging barely 4.0 YPP and they are facing a sneaky good Atlanta defense that ranks 6th in the NFL giving up only 5.1 YPP. The Cats have scored 15 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games, only topping that number vs TB where they scored 18. Needless to say we don’t expect Carolina’s offense to break out and have an unusually good performance here. Atlanta has a 6-7 record yet their numbers suggest they are better than that. They have a positive YPG and YPP differential on the season. The Falcons have dominated this series winning 12 of the last 16 meetings and we’re only laying a FG here which is the 2nd lowest spread of any team vs Carolina this season. The Panthers are just 8-20 SU vs division opponents since 2019 and we look for Atlanta to win this one by more than a FG

#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -4 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - Getting very solid value here with Detroit in our opinion. They’ve had their struggles the last few weeks but let’s remember just a few weeks ago they were 8 point home favorites vs Green Bay and now the Lions are laying -4 (current line as of Thursday) vs Denver. We actually have GB power rated about 1 point higher than the Broncos right now so you can see the value with Detroit. The Lions are in must win mode at home coming off a loss last week @ Chicago (we were on Chicago) and the Packers just 2 games behind. Detroit has been much better at home this season with a YPP differential of +1.2 (on the road they are +0.1) and a YPG differential of +113. In their 2 home losses vs Green Bay and Seattle, the Lions outgained both of those opponents but they were -6 in turnover differential which makes it almost impossible to win. The Lions are averaging over 400 YPG at home and QB Goff has been much better at Ford Field completing 70% of his attempts for an average of 275 YPG through the air. Denver is on a 6-1 SU run which we feel has pushed them into overvalued range. In those 6 wins they benefited greatly from turnovers (+14 TO margin in those 6 games alone) but they were outgained in half those wins. This is the Broncos third straight road game having played @ Houston and @ LA Chargers the last 2 weeks. They have the 2nd worst road YPP differential in the NFL at -1.90. In their win over the Chargers last week, Denver caught another break when LA QB Herbert was injured in the 2nd quarter and out the remainder of the game. Despite their 6-1 record, Denver’s offense hasn’t been great during that stretch averaging less than 5.0 YPP in 5 of 7 games. We like Detroit to bounce back from last week’s loss @ Chicago and pick up a solid home win.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -2 or -2.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - The Hawks are in a tough scheduling situation here having played and won in Toronto on Friday night. This will be the second night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four nights. Cleveland has lost 4 straight games, but they’ve come against Miami, Orlando and Boston twice. The Cavs suffered a blow in their last game, losing PG Garland for the foreseeable future with a jaw injury. But LeVert is more than capable of filling in for Garland and also expect Donovan Mitchell to step up to the task. The Hawks hold the offensive advantage, but the Cavs are that much better defensively ranking 8th in defensive efficiency compared to the Hawks at 28th. With this low number we are basically just asking the Cavs to win this game outright and they are 38-18 SU at home since the start of last season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.8PPG. Atlanta is 25-33 SU their last 58 road games with a negative differential of minus -1.1PPG. Atlanta playing without rest is 5-12 SU their last 17, minus -2.4PPG. Let’s back the shorthanded Cavs at home in desperation mode.

#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Mary’s -5 over UNLV, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Phoenix, Arizona. We’re getting some value with St Mary’s at this point in the season mainly because their record is just 5-5. Let’s keep in mind they’ve played a brutally tough schedule thus far (16th SOS) and 4 of their 5 losses have come vs teams currently sitting in the top 75 per KenPom. The Gaels return 3 starters and 70% of their minutes from a team that was 27-8 last season and beat VCU in round 1 of the NCAA tourney before losing to eventual National Champions UConn. STM has now had a full week off and has some solid momentum after beating an undefeated Colorado State team on the road last Saturday. That was a CSU team that had 5 top 100 wins already this season including W’s vs Washington, Creighton, and Colorado. Impressive win for St Mary’s to go on the road and beat that team. Saturday they are facing a UNLV team that is coming off a gigantic home win on Wednesday vs Creighton and now traveling just a few days after that win. The Rebels hit 52% of their shots in that game and 45% from deep. The Jays, normally a great shooting team, had an off night 8 of their 29 three point attempts. That was an aberration in our opinion as UNLV is NOT a good defensive team. They rank outside the top 300 in eFG% allowed and are near the bottom of college basketball defending the arc (343rd). St Mary’s should have a huge edge defensive as they rank 23rd nationally in defensive efficiency. The Gaels should also dominate the glass ranking 21st nationally in offensive rebounding facing a UNLV team that ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The Rebs have only played 3 teams currently ranked inside the top 100 and lost 2 of those. St Mary’s will be the 2nd highest rated team UNLV has played this season. Lay the small number with the Gaels

#207 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State -3.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 5:45 PM ET - NMSU has been a cover machine this season with a spread record of 10-3-1. Their head coach, Jerry Kill (former Minnesota head coach), has done a masterful job including keeping his team motivated late in the season when they really didn’t have anything to play for. The Aggies final 2 games of the season were “meaningless” so to speak as they had already locked up a spot in the CUSA Championship game and were bowl eligible. In their final 2 regular season games they beat Auburn on the road 31-10 as 24+ point underdogs. It wasn’t flukey at all as they outgained the Tigers by 200 yards and ran the ball for 213 yards on the SEC defense! The week after was a PERFECT letdown spot playing a solid Jacksonville State team with the CUSA Title game on deck and having just beaten Auburn on the road. They won that game as well never trailing and outgaining Jax St by 122 yards. Impressive to say the least. The Aggies did lose in the CUSA to an undefeated Liberty team but even in that game NMSU put up 500 total yards in a game that was tied in the 4th quarter. This game is in Albuquerque so a semi home game for the Aggies who are thrilled to be here. We’re not so sure Fresno feels the same way. This game was undefeated in early October and won 7 of their first 8 games and had Mountain West title hopes on their minds. They tanked down the stretch losing 3 in a row to close out the season and getting topped ATS in all 3 games by a combined 73 points! Two of those losses came vs a pair of teams that finished the year with 4-8 records, New Mexico and San Diego State by 8 and 15 points respectively. Their head coach Jeff Tedford will not be coaching in this bowl game and they have a couple of key injuries on the offensive and defensive lines. NMSU should control the trenches here as their running game averages over 200 YPG on 5.8 YPC (4th in the country) facing an Bulldog defense that ranks 98th vs the run. The Aggies average 7.0 YPP on the season (9th nationally) and they have a YPP differential of +1.0 compared to Fresno who is dead even in that category (5.5 YPP offense / 5.5 YPP defense). New Mexico State is absolutely the more motivated team here and we like them to cover this number.