Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-20-23 | Clippers -7 v. Spurs | Top | 131-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS -7 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The most important aspect of handicapping the Spurs is knowing who’s playing and who isn’t. Considering they sat Paul George and Kawhi Leonard last game for load management it’s safe to assume both will play tonight. Neither are on the injury report and the line reflects they’ll be in the lineup. The Clippers are off a bad loss to the Jazz and look to rebound here against a Spurs team off a rare win over the Nets. San Antonio is 2-9 SU their last eleven games and 9-16 SU for the year at home. The Spurs have the 2nd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG. San Antonio is 2nd to last in the league in home defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession. They aren’t much better offensively, ranking 27th in OEFF when at home. Despite having a very depleted roster for most of the season the Clippers still boast the 9th best defensive efficiency allowing just 1.124PPP. The Spurs were recently +6.5 at home versus the Kings and lost by 13. They were +9 on a neutral court versus the Warriors and lost by 31. The betting action on this game clearly shows sharp money on the Clippers and we’ll follow the money! |
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01-19-23 | Washington State v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
#816 ASA TOP PLAY 10* Utah -3.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The Utes are in desperate need of a win here after losing 3 straight games. Two of those games have come on the road @ UCLA and @ USC. They started the Pac 12 season with 5 straight wins and now sit at 5-3 in league play, still good for 4th place in the conference. WSU, on the other hand, has won 3 straight, so now we have an undervalued home team vs an overvalued road team. Wazzou has played 8 road games this year and lost 7 of those games. The Cougars have struggled big time on offense in their road games this year averaging only 63 PPG on just 38% shooting. WSU also relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 39% of their points on the season coming from beyond the arc (16th most in the nation). The problem here is that Utah is an outstanding defensive team overall (5th nationally in eFG% defense) and the Utes hare fantastic guarding the arc allowing opponents to make only 28% from deep (9th best nationally). The Utes have an average PPG margin of +17 PPG at home this season and they are in a must win spot off 3 straight losses. The host in this Pac 12 series has covered 15 of the last 22 meetings and we expect that to be the case again on Thursday night. We’ll lay the small number with Utah at home on Thursday. |
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01-18-23 | Hawks +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* ATLANTA HAWKS +3.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Health is a big part of the equation tonight as the Hawks are healthy and the Mavericks are not. Atlanta has been hit hard with injuries for most of the season but now have everyone back including center Clint Capela. The Mavericks are really banged up right now with 3 key role players all out with Kleber, Finney-Smith and Josh Green all sidelined. To make matters worse, several players are playing through nagging injuries and are not 100%. The Hawks have won 3 straight and 4 of their last five games with the lone loss coming against the Bucks. Dallas on the other hand has lost 2 straight and 4 of their last five games. With a healthy roster this Hawks team looks like a play on team in the near future and we will grab the points with them here. |
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01-18-23 | Duquesne v. St Bonaventure +1.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure +1.5 over Duquesne, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - After a record of 6-24 a season ago, Duquesne has surprised this season with a 13-5 mark. Because of that, they’ve become a bit overvalued and they are laying points on the road here vs St Bonnies. That’s a drastic swing from last season when STB was favored by 14 at home and won by 26 points. While they have improved, this Duquesne team has played only 4 true road games and won only 1 of those games and that was vs an 8-10 St Joes team last Wednesday. The Dukes are getting outscored by 7 PPG on the road and now facing a St Bonnies team that is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 10 PPG. The Bonnies are averaging 72 PPG at home and facing a Dukes defense that isn’t great to say the least ranking 229th in scoring defense, 192nd in FG% defense, and 284th in 3 point FG% defense while allowing 75 PPG on the road. On offense, Duquesne relies very heavily on the 3 point shot with 36% of their points coming from deep (36th most nationally). The problem here is, the are facing a Bonnie defense that ranks 16th nationally allowing their opponents to shoot just 29% from deep and even better at home allowing 25%. St Bonnies has dominated this series going 19-3 SU last 22 meetings while winning 14 of the last 15 meetings with Duquesne at home. They are getting points at home here and we’ll take them. |
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01-17-23 | Texas v. Iowa State -2.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -2.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - We went against Texas on Saturday for our Top Game (we took Texas Tech +8.5) and we cashed easily with the Longhorns winning by 2. Tech actually led for much of the game including a halftime lead of 9 points. Texas was never covering at any point of the game with their largest lead being just 7 points. We mentioned in that analysis we felt the Longhorns are overvalued right now based on their 15-2 record and we’ll stick by that here. The Horns are 4-1 in Big 12 play but it hasn’t been a cakewalk. They’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play yet 3 of their 4 wins have come by 4 points or fewer. They trailed late @ Oklahoma and won by 1 point, trailed by 18 at home vs TCU and rallied for a close win and then as we mentioned they were down much of the game on Saturday and pulled out a 2 point win. Now they go on the road vs a vastly underrated Iowa State team. The Cyclones are playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 right now. Their only conference loss was on Saturday @ #2 ranked Kansas. The Jayhawks, who have lost only 3 home games since the start of the 2019 season, won by 2 and never led by more than 3 points the entire 2nd half. ISU missed a 3 point shot as time expired that would have given them the win. Prior to that loss, the Cyclones faced the Texas Tech team that gave Texas all kinds of problems and beat them 84-50. Their other Big 12 home game was a 17 point win over a very good Baylor team. ISU is 13-3 on the season and they’ve been dominant at home with a 9-0 record winning by an average score of 76-49. All of their home wins have come by double digits. Their defense has been outstanding ranking 5th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 7th in scoring defense allowing 58 PPG, and they are #1 nationally in creating turnovers at a rate of almost 30%. As we mentioned on Saturday, Texas is still dealing with the dismissal of head coach Chris Beard just over a week ago and they have played only 2 true road games all season. We think they get clipped here and ISU gets the home win and cover. |
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01-16-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky +4.5 | Top | 76-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +4.5 over FAU, Monday at 7 PM ET - FAU just won their biggest game of the season coming from behind to top North Texas on Saturday 66-62. The win moved FAU to 6-0 in CUSA play a full 2 games ahead of UNT in the loss column. The Owls also beat UNT both times already this season giving them a huge leg up in conference play. Now going on the road vs a surging WKY team puts Florida Atlantic in a very dangerous spot. Western KY sits with an 11-6 overall record and has won 3 straight in conference play after starting the league at 0-3. They could easily be right at the top of the conference with FAU & UNT as all 3 of their league losses have come 5 points or less. Florida Atlantic, on the other hand, has played tight games for the most part in CUSA play with 5 of their 6 wins coming by 4 points or fewer. The Owls have played only 2 road games in conference play beating UNT coming back from 9 points down with under 4 minutes remaining in the game and topping FIU in OT. Just one year ago WKY was favored by 4 at home vs FAU and won by 7. Now they are getting 4.5 points (as of this writing) which is nearly a 10 point swing. Too much in our opinion, especially considering the situation. Western KY is averaging 80 PPG at home this season and they’ve beaten the Owls 5 straight times at E.A. Diddle Arena. The last FAU win @ Western Kentucky was back in 2013. Take the points as we think this game is a toss up. |
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01-15-23 | Thunder v. Nets -5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 6:10 PM ET - The Thunder have put together a really impressive stretch of games recently with wins over the Celtics, Mavs, 76ers and Bulls. That success means they’ll have the Nets full attention on Sunday in Brooklyn. The Nets meanwhile are coming off a bad home loss to the Celtics and will be fully focused on today’s opponent. Brooklyn is 9-4 SU, 5-2 SU at home when coming off a loss this season. The Thunder have a negative point differential on the road this season of -2.8PPG while the Nets have a +/- at home of plus +6.1PPG. Brooklyn is the best shooting team in the NBA overall and the 2nd best 3-point shooting team. Even without KD we like the Nets to get a double-digit home win here. |
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01-14-23 | 76ers -4 v. Jazz | Top | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -4 @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - The Jazz are coming off a satisfying home win on Friday over the Orlando Magic. The 76ers on the other hand were off last night and are coming off a very disappointing home loss to the Thunder. Utah has won 2 straight games but had lost 7 of their previous eight. Philly is finally getting healthy and we expect a positive trend moving forward with a roster capable of winning the East. The Jazz have a slight advantage offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings but are far worse defensively, ranking 26th in the NBA in DEFF. Philly on the other hand owns the 4th best defensive efficiency ranking in the league. The Sixers should get plenty of easy scoring opportunities as the Jazz are the worst team in the NBA when it comes to points allowed in the paint at 55.5 per game. Embiid who is averaging 33.5PPG should feast on the Jazz in the interior. Scheduling and previous game results make the 76ers the play on team here. |
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01-14-23 | Coyotes v. Wild -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
ASA Puck Line 8* NHL PLAY ON Minnesota Wild (-1.5 -135) over Arizona Coyotes, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Wild are off a win and this is their only home game between the 9th and the 27th of this month. Minnesota will take advantage of a bad, and now struggling again, Coyotes team and the Wild should roll to a big-margin win here on home ice. Arizona has lost 7 straight games and all defeats by 2 or more goals. The Coyotes again get routed here as they have had road struggles all season long too! Puck line on the home favorite is the play in this one. |
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01-14-23 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
#791 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Tech enters this game with an 0-4 Big 12 record and this is pretty much a do or die spot for the Red Raiders. They are also coming off their worst performance of the season getting rolled @ Iowa State on Tuesday after playing 3 down to the wire games in conference play prior to that. Tech’s first 3 losses were by 6 points @ TCU (Red Raiders led that game by 13), by 3 points @ Kansas, and in OT vs Oklahoma when 2 of their key players were out. The Raiders have 6 losses on the season, all to teams ranked in the top 30 (Kansas, Ohio St, Creighton, Iowa St, Oklahoma, and TCU) and if we throw out their only terrible performance vs ISU, their average loss was by 6 points. We expect a huge effort after playing terrible in their most previous game. Texas is overvalued right now. They are off a tight 4 point win at home vs TCU, a game in which the Frogs led 40-22 and blew it. The Horns lost by 13 at home to KSU and their other 2 Big 12 wins were by 1 point vs Oklahoma and by 10 vs Oklahoma State in a game Texas actually trailed with 6 minutes left. The Horns are still figuring things out after their head coach Chris Beard was fired last week. Not an ideal situation. The Red Raiders are an ideal team to cover as a large dog because they play very good defense (36th in adjusted efficiency), they are a good shooting team (22nd in eFG%) and they get to the foul line a lot with 20% of their points coming from the stripe (74th most nationally). Texas Tech has actually won 4 of the last 5 in this series and the Horns lone win during that stretch was by 1 point. The Red Raiders were +4 here last year and won outright now we’re getting nearly double digits in a must win spot. Take the points. |
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01-14-23 | Providence v. Creighton -6.5 | Top | 67-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
#650 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -6.5 over Providence, Saturday at 2 PM ET - We’re selling Providence high right now. We don’t think they are as good as their 14-3 overall record, 6-0 in the Big East. There is a reason that Creighton, who is 9-8 overall and 3-3 in the Big East, is the favorite here and not a light one for that matter. The Friars lost all 5 starters from last year’s team and were thought to be a middle of the pack at best Big East team this season. They’ve overachieved to say the least. Creighton is the opposite. They returned many of their key players from a team that beat San Diego State in the Big Dance and then nearly knocked off eventually National Champion Kansas. The Jays were picked by many as the best team in the Big East this season. They’ve underachieved however some of that had to do with injuries. Their starting center Kalkbrenner, who leads Creighton in scoring & rebounding, missed 3 games due to illness and they lost all of those games. They’ve also played the 3rd most difficult schedule in the nation thus far so they are more than prepared for Big East play moving forward. The Friars score over 23% of their points from the FT line which is 13th most nationally. They’ve made 65 more FT’s than their opponents in their 6 league games thus far and when half of their conference games have been decided by 4 points or less or in OT, that make a gigantic difference. Problem for them here is, they are on the road so most likely won’t get favorable calls, and Creighton fouls at the 4th lowest rate in the country with only 12% of their opponents points coming from the FT line. The Blue Jays have a +19 PPG margin at home this season and they are shooting around 49% here. They are in a must win spot at home as they cannot afford to fall further behind. Now at full strength we like Creighton to win and cover this one. |
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01-13-23 | Magic +6 v. Jazz | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +6 @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - With a win tonight Orlando can guarantee themselves a winning road trip on this 5-game West Coast jaunt. They already have impressive wins at Golden State and Portland as underdogs. The Jazz have cooled off since their hot start and are on a 2-7 streak in their last nine games. Utah is 13-7 SU on the season at home with a +4.7-point differential. As a favorite though the Jazz are just 8-11 SU, 6-13 ATS with a +/- of +2.1PPG. The Magic have been a profitable "play on" team as a pooch this season with a 21-15-1 ATS record and their net differential is -3.4PPG. Orlando has done well against the West this season with a 10-6-1 ATS record. Against the East, the Jazz are 5-9 ATS. We will back Orlando here and wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game outright. |
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01-13-23 | Jets +1.5 v. Penguins | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Winnipeg Jets Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Pittsburgh Penguins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - Jets are in a back to back spot here but coming off a 4-2 win that was their 6th in last 7 games. Winnipeg had Hellebuyck in goal last night so it will likely be Rittich here. The Jets have won 6 of his last 9 starts and he has allowed 3 or less goals in 7 of those 9 starts. In fact Rittich allowed an average of only 2 goals in those 7 starts and the Jets are a better team defensively this season compared to in the past. The Penguins are an over-priced home favorite here. Pittsburgh has lost 7 of 10 games and of those past 10 games only 1 was a Penguins victory by more than a 1 goal margin. This is also a revenge game for the Jets since Pittsburgh won at Winnipeg 3-0 earlier this season. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with the road dog Winnipeg is the value play here. |
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01-13-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -12.5 | Top | 67-104 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
#880 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron -12.5 over Eastern Michigan, Friday at 7 PM ET - Total mismatch here. EMU is one of the worst teams in the nation (ranked 318th by KenPom) and defensively they cannot stop anyone. The Eagles are allowing 80 PPG (357th out of 363 teams) and their opponents are making 49% of their shots vs this sieve of a defense (358th). That will be an issue in this game vs an Akron team that is a perfect 8-0 and averaging 78 PPG at home this season. The Zips are 10-6 on the year, after finishing 24-10 last season and losing a close game to UCLA in the NCAA tourney. Five of their six losses have come vs top 100 teams which is understandable. This will be the 4th game this season where Akron has faced a team ranked outside the top 300 and their margins of victory in those games were 13, 25, and 32 points. EMU is 4-12 on the season and all 4 of their wins have ranked outside the top 210. Akron will be the 2nd highest rated team EMU has faced since November 15th when they were creamed by Bradley 89-61. The only other top 200 team they’ve faced since then was Florida Atlantic and the Eagles lost that game by 28 points. The Zips play very solid defense (106th in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they allow just 57 PPG at home this season. EMU is not a very good shooting team and they rely on getting points at the FT line with 21% of their points coming from the stripe. Problem is, Akron fouls very infrequently. The Zips have won 34 of their last 38 home games and they’ve won 9 in a row here vs EMU. Lay it. |
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01-12-23 | Gonzaga v. BYU +7 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU +7 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - The Zags continue to be overvalued in the market based on past perception. This team is nowhere near the level they were over the last few seasons. Because of that false perception, the oddsmakers have been off on this team and they have a terrible 4-12 ATS record. They’ve played 3 true road games this year and haven’t covered any of those – 0-3 ATS losing to the spread by an average of 9.5 PPG. This is not an ideal spot for Gonzaga as they’ll be playing their 3rd consecutive road game in the span of a week. They won their first 2 in this 3 game trip beating San Francisco by 2 points and Santa Clara by 5 points (both non-covers). The were quite lucky to come away with wins in those team games as they trailed by 12 @ SF and by 14 @ Santa Clara while their largest leads in those 2 games were 3 & 6 points respectively. We think their luck runs out here. BYU struggled early in the season with a 5-5 record after 10 games but they’ve since hit their stride winning 8 of their last 9 games. Defensively BYU has been very good ranking 27th in the nation in adjusted efficiency and at home they are allowing only 63 PPG on 40% shooting. The Zags have fallen way off on the defensive end this year after ranking in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency in 5 of the previous 6 seasons. This year they rank 280th in PPG allowed and 240th in FG% allowed. The Cougars have a 13-6 record but it could be much better as 5 of their 6 losses have come by 7 points or less. They also have one of the best home court advantages in college basketball having won 45 of their last 51 here at the Marriott Center. Our numbers have this game going to the wire so we’ll take the generous points. |
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01-12-23 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Chicago Blackhawks, Thursday at 8:35 PM ET - No matter the goalies who start here we like Colorado strongly in this spot. However, we will note that Petr Mrazek is the expected starter for the Blackhawks. He is 2-10-1 with a 4.19 GAA this season! As for the Avalanche, Pavel Francouz is back and healthy and served as the back-up Tuesday and is likely to start here. He has allowed 2 or less goals in 5 of his last 7 starts. Even if Colorado does start Alexandar Georgiev here, he was showing signs of turning things around before his most recent start. In the 3 starts before that rough one he had allowed 3 or less goals in 3 straight starts. The key here is the team on team situation. Yes, the Blackhawks are off B2B wins but they lost 25 of 29 games prior to this 2-game winning streak. Also the win streak features a win over a bad Coyotes team and a win in overtime against a Flames team that fired 47 shots on goal and had a heavy shot edge. The point is we are not impressed. The Avalanche beat the Blackhawks 5-2 earlier this season. Though the Avs have endured some tough sledding on the ice recently, they are still the vastly superior team in this match-up and this is the perfect "get right" game against an outclassed opponent. Chicago just will not be able to keep up here. The Blackhawks are averaging only 1.8 goals scored per game over the last 30 games! Colorado averages 3 goals per game and this is still a team capable of "pouring it on" against weaker foes. This one should end similarly to their 5-2 meeting earlier this season as Avalanche are angry about rallying to tie their most recent game only to allow a late power play goal in the eventual loss. That said, this Avs team is ready to roll tonight. Road team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with the road favorite Colorado is the value play here. |
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01-10-23 | Illinois v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 76-50 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
#654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Nebraska continues to be undervalued in our opinion, especially at home. This team has vastly improved over last season as they currently rank 85th in the KenPom ratings after finishing last season ranked 140th. The Huskers are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming by 3 points in OT vs Purdue, the highest ranked team in the conference (6th on KenPom). Illinois has been trending down for a month now. After winning 6 of their first 7 games, the Illini have gone 4-4 over their last 8. They’ve played 2 true road games this season and lost both @ Maryland by 5 and @ Northwestern by 13. They are coming off a nice win at home over Wisconsin on Saturday but that came with a few asterisks. The Badgers were forced to play without their top player, Tyler Wahl, who is recovering from an ankle injury. On top of that, the Illini shot WAY above their season averages in that game making 10 of their 19 three point attempts (53%) when they entered the game making only 32% of their 3’s on the season. Wisconsin was also called for 21 personal fouls leading to +14 points at the FT line for Illinois. In their most recent home game Nebraska was a 4 point dog vs Iowa and won by 16 and their vastly improved defense (44th in adjusted efficiency) held the potent Iowa attack to just 50 points. Now they face an Illinois team that has averaged only 63 PPG on the road, 14 fewer than their season average. The host in this Big 10 series have covered 6 of the last 7 and we give the Huskers a great shot to pull the upset here. Grab the points. |
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01-10-23 | Hornets +8 v. Raptors | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Hornets here as this number is higher than it should be. The Hornets just played a hot Pacers team that has won 8 of their last ten games and were +5.5-points there. The game before that they were a +10-point dog in Milwaukee and won outright. Charlotte has bad overall numbers on the road this season but recently they lost to Indiana by 5, beat the Bucks, lost to the Warriors by 5, -11 at Portland and beat the Lakers. Historically, the Raptors have enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage but this season they have been slightly above average at 12-10 SU. They have a +1.7PPG +/- at home which is 20th in the NBA. They are hovering around league average in offensive efficiency at home and near the bottom of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both teams have struggled with their shooting for the season but in their last five games the Raptors are hitting below season numbers in both overall FG% and 3PT%. In fact, those percentages are brutally bad as Toronto is shooting 42% from the field and 30.9% from beyond the Arc in their last five games. Charlotte has covered 18 of the last 26 as the visitor in this series. Grab the inflated points. |
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01-09-23 | Magic v. Kings -6 | Top | 111-136 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -6 vs Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - These two teams are coming off opposite results which makes the Kings the play on team here and the Magic the play against. Orlando is off a big road win over the Warriors as a +6.5-point underdog. They face a hungry Kings team that is off a bitter 2-point loss to the Lakers. Sacramento has a +/- at home of +3.3PPG and stand 11-9 SU on the season on their home court. Orlando has the 25th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG and is 5-13 away from home. The Kings have lost 2 straight at home and will be up for this game against a young Magic team. Orlando is an exciting team in the league but playing at a consistent level is always difficult for a young roster. Bet the Kings here. |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | Top | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -12.5 over TCU, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Georgia has been the best team in the country all season long and we like them to win by at least 2 TD’s in this game. The Bulldogs came from 2 TD’s down last week to beat Ohio State, however UGA dominated the stats outgaining the Buckeyes by almost a full 2.0 YPP. The UGA offense gained 533 yards on just 60 offensive snaps for an average of 8.9 YPP! They were only forced to punt twice in their 12 possessions, missed 2 FG’s, and threw an interception that led to a short OSU TD drive. We don’t see any reason they won’t move up and down the field on a TCU defense that allowed Michigan to gain 7.0 YPP last week and was rated lower than the Buckeyes defense. The Frogs were fortunate in the semi finals to say the least. They barely won a game where they had 2 pick 6’s and the Wolverines were held at the TCU 2 yard line (no points) and fumbled at the TCU 1 yard line (no points). In that situation, the Frogs should have cruised to a win but the game went to the wire. Their success on offense was on the ground averaging over 6 YPC with QB Duggan completing less than 50% of his passes. We don’t think that’ll happen here vs Georgia who ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing 77 YPG on only 3.0 YPC. UGA has a big edge defensively allowing almost 100 YPG fewer than TCU and their offense just put up nearly 9 YPP on a team that has a better defense than the Frogs as we discussed above. Surprisingly, 5 of the 8 National Championship games have been decided by double digits. The last 4 were all blowouts with an average margin of 22 points. We see another potential lopsided score here and we’ll lay it as long as it’s under 2 TD’s. |
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01-08-23 | Maple Leafs v. Flyers +1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Toronto Maple Leafs, Sunsday at 7 PM ET - Toronto is the better team of course but this is a bad spot for the Maple Leafs and yet they are laying a 2 to 1 price on the money line here and so the price on the puck line to have dog Philadelphia here is very reasonable. The Leafs are off huge 4-1 win last night but that was just 3rd Toronto win by a multiple-goal margin in their last 10 games overall. The Flyers are heating up and have won 4 straight games plus 5 of last 6 defeats have been by just a single goal. The fact is Philadelphia has only 3 multi-goal losses in last 16 games! Considering that plus the situational factor here with Maple Leafs in a back to back and rested Philly starting Carter Hart in goal in this one, the set-up here is perfect for a tight game. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with home dog Philadelphia is the value play here. |
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01-08-23 | Patriots +7.5 v. Bills | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
#477 ASA PLAY ON 10* New England Patriots +7.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are writing this up on Friday and the line is +7 at most places. We would suggest you play this one now as we wouldn’t be surprised if this line dips below a TD on Sunday depending on what happens on Saturday. With the cancellation of the Buffalo – Cincinnati game, if KC wins here they have the #1 seed. In that case, the Bills may actually rest some players to get ready for the playoffs which would send this line down. New England needs to win to make the playoffs. Win and they’re in. Preparation wise, the Patriots have a big advantage here. They’ve been getting ready for this game with one of the best prep coaches of all time, Bill Belichick, while Buffalo’s week has been thrown into chaos after the Damar Hamlin incident on Monday night. The Bills have been doing walk throughs only this week and some of their players stayed in Cincinnati this week to be with Hamlin which is completely understandable. The Bills are already in the playoffs obviously and we can’t imagine what their mind set might be for this game. The road team in this AFC East rivalry has been money with a 20-7-2 ATS record the last 29 meetings. We’re not enamored with the way the Pats are playing right now, but getting a TD in this situation with one of the better defenses in the NFL (allowing 5 YPP – 4th in the NFL) is the way we’ll go. |
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01-07-23 | Magic v. Warriors -6 | Top | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -6 vs Orlando Magic, 8:30 PM ET - We like how this young Magic team is starting to come together but this isn’t a great spot for them and the price is right to play against them. Consider this: The Magic were just +6.5-points at home against Memphis and are not catching that same number in Golden State. Let’s face it, the Warriors aren’t the team they were a year ago with injuries taking a toll, but they are still 17-3 SU at home with a +/- of +8.7PPG. That differential is the 4th best average in the NBA. Orlando is 4-13 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 25th worst. Golden State lost at home to Detroit which makes them a ‘play on’ here. The Warriors are 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS this season at home when off a loss. Orlando doesn’t bounce back like the Warriors do, the Magic are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS when on the road coming off a beat. Orlando beat Golden State by 1-point at home earlier in the season which makes this a payback game for Golden State. Lay the points |
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01-07-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders +9.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
#466 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - While the Chiefs are winning, they are vastly underperforming when it comes to the point spread. They are 4-11-1 ATS on the season and over their last 9 games KC is 1-7-1 ATS. They are tied with Tampa for the worst ATS record in the NFL this season. If we throw out their week one domination of what we have found out is a bad Arizona team, KC has a PPG margin of just +5.7 over their last 15 games. Over their last 10 games when they were fighting for the AFC West crown and pushing for the #1 seed, they haven’t been all that impressive even vs lower tier teams. During that stretch they won @ Houston in OT, beat Denver by 6 & 3 points, and beat a floundering Tennessee team by 3 in OT. The Raiders are still playing hard and playing fairly well winning 4 of their last 7 games. Their losses during that stretch have come by 1, 3, and 3 points. They’ve only lost 1 game this season by double digits and nearly knocked off KC on the road this season losing 30-29 and outgained the Chiefs by 10 yards. Las Vegas was +7.5 in that game @ KC and now we’re getting a higher number with them at home because KC is in a perceived “must win” spot which we talk about below. Last week QB Stidham played outstanding and the Raiders offense outgained the red hot 49ers while averaging 7.6 YPP on the best defense in the league despite their 3 point loss in OT. Chiefs need to win to keep pushing for the potential #1 seed, however they’ve been in that spot for awhile now and struggled with teams far worse than Las Vegas as we mentioned. The Raiders would like nothing better than to knock off the big boy in the AFC West to end their season. We expect a great effort from LV in what should be a very tight game. Take the points. |
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01-05-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 124-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 PM ET - We were hoping this line would be lower than it is given the circumstances but the oddsmakers know what they’re doing and aren’t fooled by the Mavs current 7-game winning streak. Don’t get me wrong, winning 7 in a row in the NBA is difficult, but the Mavs have faced a soft stretch of teams and only one of those foes has a current winning record. In fact, those 7-teams have a combined record of 98-170 on the season. We like playing elite teams off a loss and the Celtics were embarrassed last time out against the Thunder in a 117-150 beat-down. Not one of the 23 or more win teams in the NBA have a losing straight up record this season when coming off a loss. There are 7 teams in the league right now that have 23+ wins and they are a combined 59-40 SU when coming off a loss. Boston holds advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency stats for the season and have better overall point differentials. Boston will get back on track tonight with a solid road victory in Dallas. |
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01-04-23 | TCU v. Baylor -5 | Top | 88-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor -5 over TCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Bears were embarrassed at Iowa State in their most recent game losing 77-62 @ Iowa State as a 1.5 point favorite. The Bears played that game without one of their best players, LJ Cryer, who averages 15 PPG on the season. He’s back for this game and we expect a big bounce back from Baylor after shooting well below their average in their ISU loss hitting only 37% of their shots (they average 47%) and just 22% from beyond the arc (they average 35%). This team has lost back to back games only ONCE since the start of the 22019 season. Now they are back at home where they average 87 PPG on 49% shooting with a perfect 7-0 record on the season. Going back further, Baylor has been dominant at home to say the least winning 47 of their last 50 games! TCU steps into this game with a 12-1 record having won 10 in a row. Problem is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (355th SOS) and they haven’t played a true road game yet this season. Almost half of their games (6) have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300. Despite playing an easy schedule, TCU has struggled to shoot the ball ranking 150th in FG% and 339th in 3 point FG%. Last year Baylor was favored by 10 at home in this game and won by 10. This year we’re getting them off a loss and at a discounted price. Lay it with the Bears. |
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01-04-23 | Thunder v. Magic -2 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Orlando Magic -2 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - Both teams will have adjusted rosters here as OKC is missing All-Star guard Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Magic have several suspensions including both Wagners and Bol Bol. We don’t mind the Magic having a shorter rotation tonight as they’ve been off since last Friday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Orlando had won 8 of nine games before losing their three most recent, the last coming at home. That helps set up tonight’s play on a rested, focused Orlando team. OKC is coming off one of their biggest wins of the season as they put up 150 on the Celtics last night. The Thunder shot well above season averages as they hit 59% overall and made 20 of 40 3-pointers or 50%. Oklahoma City is 1-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -5.2PPG. The Magic are 5-2 SU their last seven home games and will get a much-needed home victory here. |
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01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Johns +2.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Huge home game for STJ who has gotten off to a rough 1-3 start in Big East play. The Johnnies are coming off a poor performance @ Seton Hall where they were a 3.5 point dog and lost 88-66. In that game they underperformed on both ends of the court making only 41% of their shots and 22% of their triples. ON the defensive end they allowed the Hall to make 54% from the field. We expect them to bounce back at home where they are 8-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points vs Xavier who is ranked in the top 20 and just beat #2 UConn by 10 points. Marquette is on the east coast for their 2nd game in 4 days after upsetting Villanova (who now is just 7-7 on the season) on Saturday. The Golden Eagles trailed for much of the 2nd half but pulled out a 68-66 win. Marquette has a solid 11-4 record but they’ve only played 3 true road games and lost 2 of those with their only win coming by 2 points as we discussed. The Eagles were dominated on the boards on Saturday (-11) and we anticipate the same here as STJ is the 13th best offensive rebounding team in the nation while Marquette ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The host in this series has covered 10 of the last 12 and we like the desperate home underdog in this game. |
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01-02-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +2 vs Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - This is a plug your nose type bet as we are going against a Nuggets team on a 10-2 run and playing on a Wolves team that has lost 6 straight. But ask yourself this, why are the Nuggets this low of a favorite? Minnesota is coming off a demoralizing home loss to the Pistons on Saturday which prompted a player only meeting. This team was considered a strong playoff team this season but the injury to Karl Anthony Towns has hurt more than expected. Denver is red hot, but they are also coming off a big home win yesterday against the Celtics which makes this the 2nd of a back-to-back for them. This is also Denver’s 5th game in seven days so fatigue will be a major factor here. Denver hasn’t been a trustworthy road favorite with a 15-18 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2021 season. Minnesota is a respectable 37-26 SU at home since 2021. We like the Wolves to get this much needed home win over a spent Nuggets team. |
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01-01-23 | Steelers +2.5 v. Ravens | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
#107 ASA PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 met just a few weeks ago and Baltimore escaped with a 16-14 win. The Steelers outgained the Ravens 6.2 YPP to 5.1 YPP but had 3 turnovers (0 for Baltimore) which turned out to be the difference. Two of those turnovers were in Baltimore territory and the other led directly to Raven points. Pittsburgh only has a very slight chance to make the playoffs and it’s been that way for a few weeks now but they continue to play hard and play well. They have won 4 of their last 5 games with their only loss during that stretch coming vs this Baltimore team. Since Baltimore QB Jackson was injured (he won’t play here) the Ravens have struggled to say the least. They’ve won 3 of their 4 games without him, however it’s been rather unimpressive beating a bad Denver team by 1 (Baltimore scored with 28 seconds left to win), beating Pitt by 2 but outplayed as we discussed, lost @ Cleveland by 10, and then beat a bad Atlanta team 17-9 but the Ravens were outgained. Their back up QB Huntley has thrown for only 1 TD during that 4 game stretch with Baltimore averaging only 11.5 PPG over the last 4. We don’t expect their offense to come alive here facing a rejuvenated Steeler defense that has given up 17 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. This has been a very close divisional battle with 6 of the last 7 meetings being decided by 5 points or less and the dog is 20-6- 3 ATS the last 29 meetings. We like the Steelers on Sunday night. |
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01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants -5.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
#122 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Giants -5.5 vs Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Hindsight is 20/20 of course but one team we looked long and hard at playing against last week was the Colts. They have a lame duck head coach in Jeff Saturday, they have a revolving door at quarterback and were so desperate they played Nick Foles last week against the Chargers. Foles was 17/29 for 143 yards and 3 INT’s. There is a very good chance this team has tanked it for the season in an effort to nab a QB early in the draft next season. The Colts have lost 5 straight games and have THE worst road differential in the NFL at minus -10.8PPG. The Giants on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives and need to win this home game. New York has faced a tough gauntlet of games in recent weeks and steps way down in talent here. The Colts weakness defensively is their rush D which allows 122.2 rushing yards per game which is 20th in the NFL. The Giants average 144.9 rushing yards per game which is 6th best. This Colts offense ranks near the bottom of the league in nearly every key statistical category including total yards per game gained and scoring as they average just 16.5PPG. New York will bounce back here off that disappointing loss to the Vikings in which they outgained the Vikings by +92 yards but ended up losing late. Indianapolis lays down here in an ugly loss. |
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01-01-23 | Bears v. Lions -6 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -6 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Lions are fighting for a playoff spot and we expect them to play well at home on Sunday. They are coming off an embarrassing effort last week getting trounced @ Carolina in their 2nd consecutive road game after winning @ NYJ a week earlier. This Detroit offense has been fantastic at home averaging 32 PPG and should have their way vs a Chicago defense that has allowed an average of 33 PPG over their last 8. The Lions have averaged 3.15 points per possession at home which is the best rate in the NFL. The Bears offense hit their stride from late October to late November but they’ve hit a wall over the last month. They have not topped 20 points in any of their last 4 games and they are averaging just 15 PPG during that stretch. They’re going to have to do a lot better than that here to stay in this game. Chicago has been outscored by 84 points since week 8 which is the worst point differential in the NFL over that time span. Chicago has nothing to play for and they’ve lost 8 straight so it looks like they’ve thrown in the towel. Especially over the last 4 weeks when their offense has gone in the tank. Detroit defense prior to last week’s loss @ Carolina had really started to play well holding 5 straight opponents below their scoring average. We like the Lions to win this one by at least a TD. We don’t think Chicago will be able to keep up. |
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12-31-22 | TCU v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 51-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over TCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Michigan was in the College FB Playoff last year and got thumped 34-11 by UGA & they were down 27-3 at half. The players admitted last year they had a bit of a “just happy to be here” mentality as the Wolverines weren’t expected to be that good coming off a losing season the year prior. This year they are saying all the right things and completely focused on atoning for that loss and comfortable being where they are as they expected it. TCU is potentially this year’s Michigan so to speak. Their odds were 200 to 1 to win the National Championship prior to the season and the Frogs had a brand new coaching staff. No way they expected to be here and none of their coaches or players have ever been in this situation. Advantage Michigan in that regard. On top of that, TCU was a team that was behind or tied at half 5 times this season and trailed 5 times in the 4th quarter and had to make comebacks. They needed a number of breaks just to get here. Michigan, on the other hand, only trailed once in the 4th quarter this year (by 4 points early in the 4th vs Illinois) and they have the #1 PPG differential in college football with an average final score of 40-13. They are also in the top 4 in YPP and YPG differential and TCU ranks 13th and 24th in those 2 stats. The Wolverines 3rd ranked defense will be the best the Frogs have faced. In fact, TCU faced SEVEN defenses ranked outside the top 95 this season and the average ranking of the defenses they faced this year was 88th. On the other side, TCU’s defense is ranked 74th nationally and they are facing a balanced Michigan offense that runs and passes for 200+ yards and averages 40 PPG. We like Michigan’s experience here not to mention they are the better team. Lay it. |
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12-31-22 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -5.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We like this veteran MTSU squad at home off a loss on Thursday. They were beaten by Charlotte (10-3 record) on the road as a 2 point dog. At home this year they are 4-1 with all of their wins coming by at least 16 points. The Blue Raiders have one of the top home court advantages in CUSA as they’ve won 21 of their last 22 here at home. This is an MTSU team that finished with a 26-11 record last year and has 7 of their top 9 players back from that team. WKY is in a free fall right now losing 3 straight games after starting the season 8-1. Those 3 losses came vs teams ranked 257, 198, and 178 including an 11 point loss @ Louisville which currently has a 2-11 record with their only other win coming by 6 vs Florida A&M who is one of the worst teams in the country. Unlike MTSU who has most of their players back, Western KY returns only 2 of their top 8 players from last season. Western is 8-4 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country so far this season having not faced a single top 100 team and all but one of their wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They are 2-2 on the road but their 2 road wins were down to the wire vs Eastern KY and Austin Peay, both ranked outside the top 240. The Blue Raiders won both games last year (by 8 on the road and by 17 at home) and with basically the same team in tact, we like them to win and cover at home on Saturday. |
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12-30-22 | Clemson v. Tennessee +5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
#268 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tennessee +5 over Clemson, Friday at 8 PM ET - Clemson is vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are not the same team that waltzed into the Final 4 of college football for 6 consecutive seasons from 2015 – 2020. The Tigers played a fairly easy schedule (55th SOS) due to the ACC being an average conference at best, and yet they were still only +0.7 YPP for the year. Compare that to Tennessee, who played the more difficult schedule, yet their YPP differential was +1.9. We just watched Florida St, who we considered one of the top 2 teams in the ACC along with Clemson, struggle with a 6-6 Oklahoma team (we were on FSU unfortunately). Our power ratings had FSU & Clemson rated almost dead even at the end of the year. UT was one of the top teams in the nation all season long. Too much is being made of the Vols losing QB Hooker to an injury. While it is a downgrade to new starter Joe Milton for sure, let’s not forget that Clemson will also be starting their back up QB here. True freshman Klubnik who was highly rated but has never started a collegiate game. He will definitely be better than former starter DJ at some point but making his first start vs a high level opponent might be asking a lot. Milton definitely has the experience edge having thrown for over 2,200 career yards and he was a starter at Michigan before transferring to UT a few years ago. In his 1 start to end the regular season, Milton and the Vols beat Vandy 56-0 and outgained them by 260 yards. While expected, it was still impressive as Vanderbilt was drastically improved this season (1 win from making a bowl game) and the Commodores had beaten Kentucky & Florida the previous 2 weeks. UT has got some good news when 2 of their top players (OT and DE) declared for the NFL Draft but have decided to play in this game. Other than that, we grade the opt outs of these 2 teams about even. When both teams were at full strength, our power ratings make Tennessee about a 5 points favorite on a neutral. Getting 5 is a huge and unwarranted swing in our opinion and we’ll take the value with the Vols |
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12-30-22 | NC State v. Clemson -1.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -1.5 over NC State, Friday at 4 PM ET - Clemson is on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7 games and they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season. They have won 27 of their last 33 home games and where this line sits at -2 they really just need to win this game. The Tigers are +14 PPG at home this season and they’ve topped 3 top 100 teams at home. 5 of their 7 game wins have come by at least 10 points and they are facing an NC State team that has played one true road game this season losing @ Miami FL by 7 points. With that 1 road loss, the Wolfpack have lost 8 of their 11 road games since the start of last season which includes a 5 point loss @ Clemson last season. Versus higher level competition this season, NC State has a 3-3 record vs top 100 teams while Clemson is 3-1 vs top 100 teams. The Tigers have one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 28th in eFG% and 13th in 3 point FG%. At home they are hitting nearly 45% of their 3’s this year which make them very tough to beat at Littlejohn Coliseum where they have a PPG differential of +14 this season. If the Tigers are attempting to salt this game away at the FT line late, we’re looking at a team that hits 77% of their FT attempts. We like Clemson to win at home and cover on Friday evening. |
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12-30-22 | Pittsburgh v. UCLA -7.5 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UCLA -7.5 vs Pittsburgh, Friday 2 PM ET - Pittsburgh closed the season on a nice 4-0 SU streak, but it came against some weak competition. In fact, the Panther are 8-4 on the season but only 2 of those wins came against teams with above .500 records. Excluding Rhode Island, the teams Pitt beat this season have a combined 36-45 SU record. The Panthers have some solid defensive numbers, but again a soft ACC schedule has a lot to do with that. Pitt has not faced an offense like UCLA’s (3rd YPG) this season. In fact, the closest offense they faced this year would be North Carolina (17th total YPG) and they lost that game by 18-points. UCLA ranked 3rd in college football this season in yards per game gained at 510, 38th in passing YPG, 4th in rushing as they pounded 246RYPG to average 39.6PPG (10th). The Bruins offense put up a gaudy 6.8 yards per play which was 7th best in the nation. At first glance, it seems the Bruins defense struggled this season but let’s not forget the Pac 12 had 5 offenses that ranked 18th or higher in total YPG gained. The big player news for both teams clearly favors the Bruins as QB Thompson-Robinson, RB Charbonnet (4th in the nation in rushing yards) and WR Allen are all expected to play. Pittsburgh will be without QB Slovis, RB Abanikanda and defensive tackle Kancey, all three key players to this Panther roster. UCLA is looking to win 10-games for the first time since 2013 and should get a convincing win here against an overrated Pitt team. |
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12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
#256 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State -9.5 over Oklahoma, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - We know FSU is extremely happy to be in this bowl game having not played in the post-season since the 2019 season and not won a bowl game since the 2017 season. This game is in Orlando as well which will give FSU a solid home field (crowd) advantage. The Noles have some serious momentum winning 5 straight to end the season and their star QB Travis has stated he will be back next season. FSU was among the best teams in the country this season and their +2.2 YPP differential and +170 YPG differential was very impressive. It could be argued they are better than their 9-3 record as they outplayed 2 of their opponents in tight losses outgaining Clemson by 90 yards (lost by 6) and NC State by 80 yards (lost by 2). The Noles haven’t lost a game since mid October. Oklahoma had a very disappointing season. They were expected to be the top team in the Big 12 and contend for a spot in the Final 4. None of that came close to happening and they finished the regular season with a 6-6 record. While FSU is motivated in this game, we’re not so sure the Sooners will bring their “A” game here. This program is used to being in much bigger bowl games and this is a big step down for them. They will have to play this game without their All American RB Gray (1400 yards rushing) and both starting OT’s have left the program. When they faced a bowl team this year, OU was 1-4-1 ATS and outgained by 40 YPG. When they played against the top 3 teams in the Big 12 (only 3 teams rated in final playoff rankings), they lost all 3 by an average score of 48-19 and they were outgained by a combined 660 yards in those losses. We like FSU by double digits. |
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12-28-22 | Kansas +3 v. Arkansas | Top | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 90 h 24 m | Show |
#247 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas +3 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Love this spot for KU. First of all, they are thrilled to be here in the Liberty Bowl having not played in a bowl game since 2008. Arkansas we’re not so sure. We take that back, we’re actually pretty positive they aren’t overly excited about this bowl game. That’s because they finished 9-4 last year, won their January 1st bowl vs Penn State, and had very high aspirations coming into this season. A 6-6 season and a bid to the Liberty Bowl is not what they expected. The Razors have had as many defections as any team in college football which speaks to their probable lack of excitement for this game. All together, players who started a combined 95 games — 50 on offense and 45 on defense — for the Razorbacks will not play against Kansas. That is more than one-third of their total starts on both sides of the ball. The Razorbacks who won’t play against Kansas accounted for 3,410 offensive snaps (34.3% of all snaps), 2,583 defensive snaps (26.0%) and 787 special teams snaps (19.3%) according to Pro Football Focus. Not only is the motivation factor heavily in favor of the Jayhawks, their stats for the season were simply better as well. KU had a +1.2 YPP differential while Arkansas was -0.2 and believe it or not, according to the Sagarin ratings, Kansas actually played the tougher strength of schedule (4th vs 23rd). Jayhawk starting QB Daniels missed 5 games this season and they were 1-4 in those games. In the games where he started and played to the end, KU was 5-2. He’s back and healthy for this one which should be a big boost to the offense and they are facing an Arkansas defense that finished the season ranked 123rd nationally. Kansas had their struggles on defense as well, however with Arkansas missing a multitude of weapons, including 3 starting WR’s and TE, we’re not sure they can take complete advantage in this one. Jayhawk HC Leipold was an absolute fantastic post-season coach at the D3 level leading UW Whitewater to a ridiculous 6 National Championships. When he took over a downtrodden Buffalo program, he led them to 3 bowls (2-1 record) winning his last 2 by a combined score of 48-19. He’ll have this team more than ready to go on Wednesday. We like Kansas to win this game outright and getting +3 is a bonus cushion. |
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12-28-22 | Central Florida v. Duke -3 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
#246 ASA PLAY ON 8* Duke -3 over UCF, Wednesday at 2 PM ET - Duke is thrilled to be here and highly motivated to win this game. The Devils haven’t been in a bowl game since 2018 and they drastically outplayed their projections under first year head coach Mike Elko. Unlike many teams that have a laundry list of guys opting out and heading to the transfer portal, Duke have just 3 players in the portal and none were significant contributors. This team had a season total set at 3 wins and they step into this game with an 8-4 record having won 4 of their last 5. Duke has also outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they were 3-1 ATS vs the other bowl teams they faced this year and outgained 3 of those 4 teams as well. UCF lost by 17 points vs Tulane in the AAC Championship game so instead of playing a game vs USC on January 2nd, they are stuck in this game which falls well below where they expected to be this season. Unlike Duke, the Golden Knights have been heading the wrong direction failing to cover their last 3 games by a combined 43 points. In those final 3 they lost to a 4-8 Navy team as a 2 TD favorite, nearly lost to a bad USF team as a 20 point favorite (UCF scored a TD late to win by 7) and got walloped by Tulane and outgained by 240 yards. The Knights starting QB Rhys is really banged up with multiple injuries and may not play which would leave them with a freshman QB who is 3rd straight because their back up already left the program. If Rhys plays, he’s nowhere near 100%. On top of that, their top WR O’Keefe (73 receptions) left the program and their offensive coordinator took the same job at UNC. Too much going on with UCF for them to be fully focused here while Duke is more than ready. Lay the small number. |
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12-27-22 | Hawks -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:40PM ET The Pacers were essentially blown out in New Orleans last night as they trailed big early on and were never competitive. Tonight they return home to face a Hawks team that is finally getting healthy. The Hawks had their starting five back for their game against the Pistons on Dec 23rd and won 130-105. Atlanta comes into this game fresh and with a huge match up advantage over the Pacers. Last season the Hawks won (and covered) all 4 meetings with the Pacers including a pair of wins on this court. Atlanta should get plenty of second-chance opportunities in this game with their 10th best offensive rebounding unit going up against the Pacers 28th ranked defensive rebounding. Indiana also relies heavily on their 3-points shooting (11th) but the Hawks hold opponents to the 4th lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA. In their last five games the Hawks have a +/- of +6.4PPG. The Pacers have a negative differential of minus -4.2PPG in that same stretch. Take the visiting Hawks in this one. |
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12-26-22 | Chargers -4 v. Colts | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
#481 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers -4 over Indianapolis Colts, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Indianapolis has to be mentally shot coming into this game. After blowing their 33 point lead last week @ Minnesota (Led 33-0 at half and LOST) they are officially out of the playoff race. They also lost RB Taylor for the season in that game and will not now be starting Nick Foles at QB, their 3rd different starter this season. He has not taken a snap in a game this season. Not much to play for here and we wouldn’t expect a high level effort here from a team that has massively underachieved this season. Since beating Las Vegas in interim head coach Jeff Saturday’s debut, the Colts have lost 4 straight getting outgained in each game. Their defense has allowed 117 points in the last 3 games (39 PPG) and the Indy offense had been held under 20 points in 6 of their last 8 games. Even their offensive “breakout” last week vs the worst defense in the NFL (Minnesota) was aided by 2 non offensive TD’s so the offense really only scored 17 points. The Colts have scored a touchdown on 12.7% of their drives, tied with the Broncos for the lowest rate in the league. The Chargers are starting to play well winning 3 of their last 4 games. They are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot and a win here, plus a few other things that need to happen, could take care of that. The last 2 weeks LA has topped Miami & Tennessee outgaining those 2 by a combined 400 yards. The Chargers are getting healthy on both sides of the ball and we have a HUGE edge at QB here with Herbert vs Foles. Lay it. |
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12-26-22 | Clippers -5.5 v. Pistons | 142-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
ASA play on: LA Clippers -5.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 7 :10pm ET The Clippers have adapted to playing without Kawhi Leonard, so we’re not concerned about him being out tonight. The Pistons are dealing with the loss of Cade Cunningham and haven’t fared as well with a 5-game losing streak and a 2-8 SU record in their last ten games. Detroit is averaging just 108.6PPG and allowing 123PPG in their last five games. The Pistons offense is one of the worst in the NBA in points, FG%, 3PT% and rebounding. Tonight, it’s going to be especially tough to put points up against a Clippers defense that is top 4 in points, FG%, 3PT% and most importantly rank 2nd in defensive efficiency. LA is 5-2 SU their last seven games and are coming off a close loss in Philadelphia last Friday. The Clippers have won 7 straight in this series and are in line for an 8th win and cover tonight. |
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12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Denver has started playing much better in recent weeks covering 3 straight. Their offense has scored 52 points the last 2 weeks combined which is more than they put up the previous 4 weeks combined. In their last 3 games they led the entire way @ Baltimore before a Raven’s FG with under 1 minute remaining gave them a 1 point win, they lost by 6 at home vs KC and had the ball in Chiefs territory late with a chance to win, and then last week they beat Arizona 24-15. Since week 10, this Denver offense has scored TD’s on 80% of their red zone drives which is 1st in the NFL. Their defense remains very good ranking 4th in both total defense and YPP allowed. While the Bronco’s offense is starting to peak, LA’s offense continues to stink. They rank dead last in the NFL in total offense, YPP, and 31st in scoring at 16 PPG. Last week vs Green Bay the Rams tallied 156 TOTAL yards on 3.6 YPP and put up 12 points. QB Baker Mayfield was terrible completing just 12 total pass for barely 100 yards. A week earlier LA had 3 points vs a bad Raider defense with less than 4:00 minutes remaining in the game before scoring 2 late TD’s for 17 total points. Now they face one of the top defenses in the NFL and we just don’t see much offense for LA. Mayfield has been bad all year completing under 60% of his passes and ranking right at the bottom of the league in QBR. LA has very little to NO home field advantage and with this game being on Christmas Day we suspect that it will be even less. Russell Wilson is back under center and while he’s had a disappointing season, his 2 highest QBR ratings were his last 2 games so he’s trending up along with the Denver offense. We like Denver to win this game by more than a FG. |
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12-24-22 | Lions v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 23-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
#458 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Detroit Lions, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Detroit is a bit overvalued right now after winning 6 of the last 7 and covering 7 straight. Now they are favored on the road vs a team that, like them, is still battling for a playoff spot. In fact, if Carolina wins out, they are in the playoffs so still a ton to play for. Detroit hasn’t been a road favorite yet this season and in their last 20 road games they’ve been favored once and lost that game outright. Last week they won by 3 vs the Jets but that took a late 51 yard TD. Historically this Detroit team has been horrendous as a road favorite with a spread record of 22-40 ATS in that role since 1980. Since firing HC Matt Rhule, Carolina has actually played quite well. Prior to last week’s loss they had won 3 of their previous 4 games. The Panthers are coming off a loss as a home favorite vs Pittsburgh while Detroit is coming off a road dog upset win over NY Jets which sets this up very nicely for the home team. Carolina is a bit undervalued right now getting points at home despite covering 6 of their last 8 games. This line looks to easy to take the Lions as we expect many will. We’ll take the home dog as teams getting points at home are 49-37 ATS on the year with underdogs in general covering almost 55% of the time in 2022. Tough spot for Detroit in their 2nd straight on the road after an upset win last week. |
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12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - There is some value in this number as the Pacers were just +9.5 points at Boston and +8 at Cleveland. In fact, these two teams played on Dec. 12th in Indy and the Heat were favored by -3.5-points there which means this line should be higher than it is. We also like the situation with the Pacers off a big upset win in Boston, while the Heat are off an upset home loss to the Bulls. Miami had won 4 straight games and seemed to be finding their groove which has been missing for much of the season early on. Both teams are 16-16 SU on the season, but we feel the Heat can contend in the East, but the Pacers cannot. Miami has a clear advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA compared to the Pacers 19th rank. Indiana is better overall in offensive efficiency this season but in their last five games the Pacers OEFF is 1.096 which ranks 26th in the NBA. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS their last six when coming off a win. Since the start of last season, the Heat are 29-20 ATS when coming off a loss. We will acknowledge the Heat have been horrible ATS at home this season with a 3-12-1 record but that means a correction is in order. |
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12-23-22 | Clippers v. 76ers -3 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs LA Clippers, 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers are playing at another level right now with 6 straight wins to improve to 18-12 on the season. At home they are 13-5 SU with an average +/- of plus +6.8PPG which ranks 9th best. The Clippers are also playing well and are starting to get healthy but this will be their first road game since Dec 10th. LA is 8-7 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. The Clippers have a +9PPG average Margin of Victory in their last five games (all at home) but the 76ers are better yet at +14.6PPG in their last five. Philly has the 9th best offensive efficiency rating in the league's last 5-game span compared to the Clippers who rank 28th. Los Angeles has the best overall DEFF ratings in the last five games but the 76ers are 2nd. Philadelphia has covered 10 of the last thirteen and will get another win and cover here. |
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12-22-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Pelicans have hit a rough patch of games with 4 straight losses but let’s consider who those L’s came against. They lost a pair of games to a hot Jazz team, lost in Phoenix and home to the Bucks. Off that home loss we like them to explode with a big win today against the Spurs. San Antonio got a road win last time out against the Rockets but now steps up in class to face the Pelicans. New Orleans has the 8th best scoring differential at home this season of +7.8PPG and a 12-4 SU record. The Spurs have a respectable 5-8 SU road record but they are getting beat by an average of -8.9PPG which is the 3rd highest average in the NBA. San Antonio is one of, if not the worst defense team in the NBA ranking 30th in points allowed per game, FG% defense and 3-point percentage D. They are also mid-20’s in most offensive categories. The Pelicans are 7th in DEFF and 5th in OEFF and the far superior team in this setting and playing with a chip on their shoulders. New Orleans has faced the Spurs twice this season in San Antonio and was favored by -5.5 and -7.5 points in those two games. Even without Zion Williamson this is a bargain. |
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12-22-22 | Seattle University v. Utah State -9.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -9.5 over Seattle, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Hawaii. USU was 9-0 on the season heading into their home game on Monday night vs Weber State. We’re guessing they were looking ahead to this trip to Hawaii as they lost by 3 points at home as a 17 point favorite. Utah State blew an 18 point lead in that game and you can bet they’ll be ready for a bounce back performance here. Prior to that loss the Aggies had been fantastic this season with 8 of their 9 wins coming by double digits including 6 vs top 150 teams. They play fast and are a tough team to keep up with offensively averaging 87 PPG while ranking #1 in the nation in 3 point percentage (43%). The way to beat this USU team is to slow the game down and make them play long possessions in the half court. That won’t happen here as Seattle likes to play fast as well which plays right into Utah State’s hands. Seattle is 8-2 but they’ve played the much easier schedule facing only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 150. USU will be by far the best team Seattle has played this season. The only other top 100 team they’ve faced was Washington who beat the Redhawks by double digits. USU should get to the line a lot here as well as Seattle fouls a lot with over 23% of their opponents points coming from the stripe (25th most nationally). Not great as USU hits 76% of their FT’s as a team. We’re going to get an angry Utah State team here off a loss and we expect an easy win. |
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12-22-22 | Flyers +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 3-4 | Win | 121 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Toronto Maple Leafs, Thursday at 2:05 PM ET - Toronto is the better team of course but this is a bad spot for the Maple Leafs and yet they are laying a huge price on the money line here and even laying a sizable price on the puck line too. The Leafs are off huge divisional win over the Lightning which was only the 4th time in last 8 games that Toronto has won a game by a multi-goal margin. The Flyers have won only 4 of last 11 games but those 7 losses included 4 by just a single goal. That means that Philadelphia has only 3 multi-goal losses in last 11 games. Considering that plus the situational factor here with Maple Leafs off huge win over division rival Tampa Bay, the set-up here is perfect for a tight game. Grabbing the 1.5 goals with road dog Philadelphia is the value play here. |
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12-21-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +1.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#714 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +1.5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. Clemson had the better record at 9-3 compared to GT at 7-4 but they’ve played the easier strength of schedule. The Tigers have played 4 games away from home (true away + neutral) and they’ve won only 1 of those games vs Loyola Chicago on a neutral site. In their one true road game they lost @ South Carolina who currently sits with at 5-6 record. The Tigers only win away from home was by 8 points on a neutral site vs a California team that is currently 0-12. Tech is 6-0 at home and their 4 losses are all vs teams ranked in the top 50, all higher than this Clemson team. The Tigers scores 35.5% of their points from 3 (77th nationally) and they are facing the best 3 point defense they’ve seen this season with Tech allowing just 27% from deep (13th in the nation). Tech’s offense has been much better at home averaging 83 PPG and making 49% of their shots. Clemson is averaging just 58 PPG in their road games while making just 38% of their shots. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 outright in this ACC series and we like the home dog to win outright here. |
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12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. San Jose State | Top | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Eastern Michigan +4 over San Jose State, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have SJSU as a 1 point favorite on a neutral site so we feel the value is with EMU in this game. The Spartans have been trending down and overvalued for over a month now. They’ve lost 6 straight ATS by an average of more than 10 PPG. They were outgained by 4 of their last 6 opponents winning the stat sheet vs Nevada (2-10 record) and Hawaii (3-10 record) only. Their only wins since early September were vs Hawaii, Colorado St, and Nevada three teams who have a combined 8-29 record. EMU, on the other hand, is playing their best ball of the season right now winning 6 of their last 8 games with a spread record of 5-1-1 their last 7. The offense hit their stride down the stretch scoring 30+ points in three crucial games to end the season. This is also a team that beat Arizona State on the road earlier in the year and outgained the Sun Devils by 116 yards, prompting ASU officials to fire head coach Herm Edwards immediately after the game. EMU head coach Chris Creighton has been fantastic as an underdog going 3-1 ATS in bowl games and 35-10 ATS his last 45 getting points. The Eagles are the much more balanced offense rushing for 144 YPG and passing for 218 YPG. SJSU can’t run the ball averaging only 92 YPG (125th nationally) so they can be one dimensional on offense not great when your offensive line ranks 114th in sacks allowed per game. EMU is making this out to be a huge game for their program. They are looking to win their first bowl game since 1987. This game is being played in Boise which is in the same conference as San Jose State so we can’t imagine this is a rewarding bowl for that program. Take the points in this one. |
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12-19-22 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 12-24 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Rams +7 vs Green Bay Packers, 8:20 PM ET - These two teams had much higher aspirations this season and both have clearly fallen short. There isn’t a big difference between these two teams so we have to side with the Dog and the points here. The Rams are higher rated than the Packers when it comes to defensive DVOA rankings #14 whereas the Packers are 23rd. Green Bay holds the advantage offensively ranking 11th in DVOA while the Rams are 26th. The Rams have a negative differential of minus -6PPG which is one of the worst numbers in the NBA but the Packers aren’t much better at minus -3PPG which is 25th in the league. Green Bay has historically dominated in Lambeau but this season they have a negative differential of minus -0.8PPG. The Packers have already lost to the Titans and Jets at home and narrowly beat the Patriots. The Rams have two bad road losses on their resume to the 49ers and Chiefs and the Packers aren’t on that level. The other road games for the Rams are a 7-point loss at New Orleans, lost by 3 at Tampa and beat the Cardinals. Baker Mayfield had a week to learn more of the Rams system and should be better prepared for this road contest. Grab the points. |
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12-18-22 | Magic v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Orlando Magic, 3 PM ET - The Celtics were not in a good situation on Friday night when they hosted the Magic and lost outright as a 13-point favorite. They had just come off a big 6-game road trip and a tough OT win over the Lakers. Now we get a much better line with the Celtics in immediate revenge. Boston has the best overall point differential in the NBA and 3rd best average scoring margin when at home of +10.2PPG. They are 11-3 SU at home and 4-1 SU home off a loss. Overall the Celtics are 7-5-1 ATS when coming off a loss. Orlando is just 2-11 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -7.6PPG which is the 5th worst average in the NBA. Boston will settle in at home today and get a blowout win. |
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12-18-22 | Lions v. Jets +1 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 45 m | Show | |
#314 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Jets +1.5 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Detroit has won 5 of 6 (6-0 ATS) but they’ve had a very favorable schedule as of late. They haven’t played a road game since Nov 20th and their 2 road game wins were vs Giants (trending down big time) and Bears despite winning Detroit was outgained in both. Their last 5 wins have come vs defenses ranked 18th or lower (total defense) and the one top 10 defense they faced during that stretch, Buffalo, came away with a win @ Detroit. On Sunday they face a desperate Jets team that is coming home off 2 straight road losses @ Minnesota and @ Buffalo. Despite the losses, NY outgained the Vikings by 198 yards and outgained the Bills by 77 yards. For the season, NY is 8th in YPP differential while the Lions are 25th and the Jets have played tougher schedule. NYJ has a HUGE defensive advantage in this game as they rank 3rd in total defense and 2nd in YPP allowed while Minnesota ranks 31st and 32nd in those two categories. NY will be starting Zach Wilson at QB here and he has a lot to play for after getting unseated a few weeks ago by Mike White. Weather will be cold which we feel favors NY when facing off against Detroit who is a dome team. Our power ratings have the home team a slight favorite here so we’ll take the value with the Jets. |
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12-17-22 | Boise State -10.5 v. North Texas | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
#217 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -10.5 over North Texas, Saturday at 9:15 PM ET - This game is in Frisco, TX giving UNT a slight home field advantage but we still like Boise to roll. The North Texas program is in a bit of chaos after firing their head coach Littrell despite making the CUSA Championship game. That spot was just filled by an assistant coach from Washington State just a few days ago leaving the current coaching staff in limbo. The Mean Green were trending downward to close the season failing to cover their last 3 games and getting blown out in 2 of those games. They were 1-5 SU this year vs teams with winning records and in their 5 losses they were beaten by a combined score of 212 to 119 or an average final score of 42.5 to 23.8. They were outgained by over 600 yards in those 5 losses. Boise turned their season around once they switched QB’s and went with Green under center and hired longtime NFL coach Dirk Koetter to call plays. Once they settled on Green as the starter, the Broncos went 6-2 from that point on with their only losses coming vs BYU and Fresno in the MWC Championship game. They already had a great defense and with Green as the starter they averaged 32 PPG making them very tough to beat. The BSU defense has a HUGE advantage in this game ranking 6th nationally in total defense and 11th in scoring defense allowing 18 PPG compared to the UNT stop unit that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, pass defense, rush defense, and scoring defense allowing 31.5 PPG. Boise rolls in this one. |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -7 vs Miami Dolphins, Saturday 8:15pm ET - At first look this may seem to be a lot of points to lay in a divisional showdown, but in reality, it’s not. Consider the Bills were minus -4-points in Miami earlier this season which should have them as double-digit favorite in this game. Buffalo lost the first encounter this season despite outplaying the Phins by a wide margin. Buffalo had 497 total yards in the game to Miami’s 212 yards. The Bills had twice as many first downs (31-15), nearly 3 times the rushing yards (115-41) and 382 passing yards to the Dolphins 171, yet still lost. The Bills blew numerous red zone chances and essentially handed Miami the win. Things will be different this time around as the Bills are at home, in a cold, windy and wet environment. This Miami team that has played four straight games in warm weather are also playing their 3rd road game in as many weeks. After putting up some gaudy offensive numbers against four weak defenses in a row, the Phins were brought back to Earth against the 49ers and Chargers the past two weeks. Today they get a Bills defense that is nearly as good as the 49ers in terms of efficiency. The Bills offense is 2nd in yards per game gained, 6th in passing, 8th in rushing and score the 4th most points in the NFL. Miami is 20th in YPG allowed, 23rd vs. the pass and give up 24PPG which ranks them 23rd. Buffalo has covered 7 of the last ten meetings at home and have the best home point differential in the NFL at +16.8PPG on their home field. In this payback setting we like the Bills big. |
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12-17-22 | Mavs v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in Dallas on the 14th with the Cavs winning 105-90 as a +2.5-point Dog. We don’t see anything changing here and expect another double-digit win by Cleveland. In the game the other night the Cavs double-teamed Doncic in the first half and held him to a 9 of 23 shooting night. Overall, the Maverick shot just 39% for the game and were outrebounded by 10. The Cavs shot 53% for the game and dominated in the paint with 52 points compared to 26 for Dallas. Both teams are off games Friday night, but the Cavs are at home while the Mavs have to travel. The venue has a lot to do with this selection as the Mavs are 3-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -4.5PPG (9th worst). Cleveland is polar opposite with a 12-2 SU record at home and a +10.4PPG differential which is 3rd best in the NBA. Dallas owns the 27th worst road defensive efficiency and 26th worst OEFF. Dallas is 1-7 ATS their last eight games on the road versus a team with a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 13-2-1 ATS their last 16 at home. Don’t worry about the revenge factor here, bet the home team Cavs. |
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12-17-22 | Jazz v. Bucks -6.5 | 97-123 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs Utah Jazz, 8 PM ET - We can’t pass up an opportunity to play on an elite team like the Bucks off an EMBARRASSING loss in their last game out. Milwaukee got beat by 41-points in Memphis the other night in what was one of the worst defensive NBA games I’ve seen in a long time. These guys are professionals with damaged pride so we know we’ll get max effort out of the Bucks here. The Bucks are 13-3 SU at home with the 6th best differential of +9PPG. Milwaukee is 29-13 SU, 15-11-2 ATS when coming off a loss since the start of last season. The Jazz may come into this game a little ‘fat’ with a pair of big Western Conference wins over the Pelicans at home. Utah is 6-9 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -1.7PPG. They are coming off a stretch of games with 8 of their last nine being at home. Milwaukee’s defense will be the difference in this game as they rank 4th in PPG allowed, 2nd in FG% D and 9th in 3PT% defense. Back the Bucks here! |
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12-17-22 | Fresno State -4 v. Washington State | 29-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
#211 ASA PLAY ON 8* Fresno State -4 over Washington State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Washington State opened as a 2 point favorite in this game and it has swing to FSU by more than a FG. We agree with the move and feel there is still some value on the Bulldogs. WSU ended the regular season with a 7-5 overall record but did not beat a single team with a winning record and finished below .500 in the Pac 12. Their best win of the season was vs a down Wisconsin team who was 6-6 on the year and in that game the Cougars were outgained by 150 yards and had 12 fewer first downs. If we throw out their 24-17 win vs FCS Idaho, the record of the 6 FBS teams Wazzou beat was 24-48. Fresno is 9-4 this season but we feel they are better than their record. That’s because they played a number of games without their starting QB Haener who is an NFL caliber signal caller. He’s thrown for almost 9,000 career yards with 66 TD’s and just 18 picks. When Haener was able to play from start to finish, the Bulldogs were 9-1 with their only loss coming vs Oregon State 35-32 in a game where the Beavers scored a TD as time expired to get the tight win. FSU outgained the Beavs by almost 100 yards in that game, an Oregon State team that finished 6-3 in the Pac 12 and beat Washington St by 2 TD’s. Fresno comes in at the top of their game winning 8 straight games, covering 6 of those. The are facing a Wazzou team that will be without 3 of their top 4 WR’s, 3 starting LB’s, and both their offensive and defensive coordinators have moved on. The Bulldogs are jacked to get another shot at a Pac 12 team and we like them to cover this one. |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Seahawks +3 over San Francisco 49ers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Rookie QB Purdy has been very successful in his first 2 appearances in the NFL coming in relief 2 weeks ago to beat a faltering Miami team and then topping TB last week. Both of those games were at home. Now, if he plays, he’ll be making his first road start which is a whole different scenario. Not only that, he is not 100% with an oblique injury and there is a chance he won’t be able to go on a short week. If he can’t, it’s journeyman Josh Johnson who was just added to the roster last week. San Fran has had a very favorable schedule as of late with a grand total of ONE road game since November 1st before traveling to Seattle for this one. The Seahawks are in must win mode if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. They’ve dropped 3 of their last 4 and they’ve been competitive with 5 of their 6 losses coming by one possession. Seattle has been a house of horrors for the Niners with the Seahawks winning 12 of the last 14 both SU & ATS at home. We’re getting QB Geno Smith who is still 5th in the NFL in QBR vs either a rookie or a 4th stringer. The Niners are becoming a bit overvalued after winning 6 straight games now laying over a FG on the road with a rookie QB making his first road start, if he can even go. We’ll take the points. |
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12-15-22 | Flyers v. Devils -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* New Jersey Devils Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Philadelphia Flyers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET - Devils off 3 straight losses and will be angry here against a division rival. Remember New Jersey had won 21 of 27 games before this tough stretch. The Flyers have lost 16 of last 18 games! Philly's last 3 losses all by a single goal but this followed 9 of last 14 defeats by at least a 2-goal margin. Tough scheduling spot for Philadelphia as they are just back from a road trip out west too. This one shapes up to be a complete mismatch which is, of course, the reason the Devils are 3 to 1 favorites on the money line. The value comes into play here by laying the 1.5 goals on the puck line and only having to lay a very fair price in the pick'em range as a result. Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite New Jersey is the value play here.
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12-14-22 | Red Wings v. Wild -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 120 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Wild Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Detroit Red Wings, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - Plus money is in the +115 range on this one as of early morning Wednesday. The Wild are in a great spot for a home rout here. Detroit is in 2nd game of a B2B and had top goalie Husso in goal last night. The Red Wings lost key player Dylan Larkin to injury in last night's game versus Carolina also. That is a key blow to a team that was already struggling to score goals. Though it is uncertain how much time Larkin will miss it has been announced already that he will not play in tonight's game. This is a revenge game for the Wild as they lost to the Red Wings earlier this season and we expect Minnesota will take full advantage of the situation. Detroit has lost 3 straight games and has scored an average of only 1 goal per game in this 3-game losing streak. The Wild have won 8 of 11 games and have scored an average of 3.7 goals per game during this stretch. This one shapes up to be a complete mismatch which is, of course, the reason the Wild are 2 to 1 favorites on the money line. The value comes into play here by laying the 1.5 goals on the puck line and getting a plus money return as a result. Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Minnesota is the value play here. |
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12-13-22 | Marshall v. NC-Greensboro +4.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
#604 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro +4.5 over Marshall, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Marshall steps into this game with a 9-1 record but we feel they are vastly overvalued right now due to that mark. The fact is, they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far with a SOS rank of 348th out of 363 teams. This will be their 3rd straight road game since last Thursday having played Duquesne and Robert Morris (both in Pittsburgh) on the road on Thursday & Saturday. UNCG doesn’t have the record that Marshall does (4-6 SU) but they’ve played the much tougher slate so far this season (Top 100 SOS rank). They’ve also been on the road for 3 weeks as this is the Spartans first home game since November 22nd. They are coming off their most complete performance of the season last Tuesday nearly knocking off Arkansas, the #9 ranked team in the nation, on the road. UNCG led at halftime and the Razorbacks first lead of the 2nd half came with under 9:00 remaining in the game and the final margin of 7 points was the largest of the game for Arkansas. The Razorbacks attempted 33 FT’s in the game to just 11 for Greensboro and the Spartans still nearly pulled the upset. Marshall has some gaudy offensive numbers but they haven’t played a defense with a pulse yet. The Herd hasn’t faced a defense ranked inside the top 140 in adjusted efficiency and 8 of their 10 opponents have defense ranked outside the top 200 in that metric. UNCG ranks 90th in adjusted defensive efficiency and just held a potent Arkansas offense to 65 points, 15 points below their season average. We’re getting value with this number. If this game was played to open the season, UNCG would absolutely be favored with Marshall coming off a year in which they went 12-21 last season. The Herd are in a tough spot here and favored on the road vs a desperate home team that is better than their record. Take the points. |
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12-12-22 | Cavs -5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Even if Donovan Mitchell can’t go Monday we still like the Cavs minus the points. The Spurs are coming off a big road upset win in Miami and now return home where they haven’t had much success this season. San Antonio is 4-10 SU at home with the worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -9.6PPG. Prior to a recent home win over the Rockets, the Spurs had lost five straight at home, all by 5 or more points. The Cavs haven’t been great on the road this season but they are stepping way down in class against the Spurs here. Cleveland is 12th in offensive efficiency this season, the Spurs rank 29th. Defensively things get much worse for San Antonio as the Cavs hold the #1 rating in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are last. There is enough of a supporting cast in Cleveland with Allen, Mobley, LeVert and Garland to make up for the loss of Mitchell here. The Cavs 4-0 ATS streak in San Antonio continues tonight. |
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12-10-22 | Wolves v. Blazers -5.5 | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Portland Trailblazers -5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Blazers and fade the Wolves. Minnesota is coming off a big game in Utah last night (the return of Rudy Gobert) and will have a tough time getting back up for this game. Portland is off a tough 1-point loss to the Nuggets on Dec 8th. The Blazers got Damian Lillard back in that game and he promptly went off for 40-points. He’s in line for another big game here against a Wolves team that doesn’t defend guards well. The Wolves have a tighter rotation now that Karl Anthony Towns is out which makes this scheduling situation that much tougher. Going back to the start of last season, the T-Wolves are 6-9-1 ATS with a negative differential of -2.9PPG when playing without rest. The big advantage the Blazers have here is 3-point shooting. Portland has the 3rd best 3PT% in the NBA and the Wolves are the 29th worst 3PT% defense. Portland has dominated this series as the home team with a 22-7-2 ATS record the last 31 times the Wolves have come to town. |
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12-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. South Dakota State -8 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota State -8 over Eastern Washington, Saturday at 5 PM ET - SDSU steps into this one with a 3-7 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country to date. Their strength of schedule ranks in the top 20 nationally and of their 10 games thus far, 9 have been on the road or neutral sites. They are coming off 4 straight losses, all away from home vs top notch competition (James Madison, Kent, Arkansas, and Montana). This now becomes a huge game for them and their opponent, Eastern Washington (ranked 231st), will be the 2nd lowest rated opponent SDSU has faced this season. This game is at home for the Jackrabbits and a big step down in competition after already facing 5 top 100 opponents. SDSU is much better than their record as they return 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that finished with a 30-5 record and made it to the NCAA tourney. EWU also has a losing record at 4-5, yet they’ve played a much easier schedule (220th ranked SOS) and their 4 wins have come against teams ranked 362nd, 339th, 259th, and 241st. Three of those wins were by 8 points or less despite the easy competition. All 5 of their losses have come by double digits and only one of those came vs a team in the top 85. The Eagles are 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Cal by 2 points on Wednesday of this week. Their other road games were losses by 11, 12, and 20 points. That win a few days ago vs Cal may seem like a big one but the Bears are now 0-10 this year with 3 of those losses coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. After that road win in California, they are now in South Dakota just a few days later which is not an ideal situation. The Eagles are not great on either end of the court ranking outside the top 200 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They are stepping into a hornet’s nest here with a very solid team in must win mode at home where they’ve won 45 of their last 47 games. We’ll lay the points. |
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12-09-22 | Kings v. Cavs -4 | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Cleveland Cavaliers -4 vs. Sacramento Kings, 7:40 PM ET - We like this young Kings team and don’t feel their 13-9 start is a fluke, but we have to bet against them here. The Kings average 119.3PPG compared to the Cavs 111.5PPG but their offensive efficiency rating is very close at 1.165PPP for the Kings and 1.141PPP for Cleveland. Defensively there is no comparison as the Cavaliers have the #1 rated defensive efficiency numbers in the league allowing just 1.079PPP versus the Kings who rank 21st giving up 1.132PPP. Cleveland has also been near unbeatable at home this season with a 11-1 SU record and the best average point differential of +12.4PPG. The Kings are a respectable 5-6 SU away from home but recently versus teams of the Cavs caliber (Bucks, Celtics even Hawks) they have lost by 9+ points in each of those road games. Cleveland has the 4th best field goal percentage in the NBA and the Kings rank 26th defensively in that department. Sacramento is also 27th in defending the 3-point line and the Cavs shoot 34.5% which ranks 10th. |
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12-08-22 | UMass Lowell v. Massachusetts -2 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
#306686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UMass -2 over UMass Lowell, Thursday at 7 PM ET - UMass Lowell has an impressive 9-1 record but they’ve played nobody. Actually we take the back, the one good team they’ve played this season, Rutgers, beat them by 8 points. Their strength of schedule ranks 356th nationally (out of 363) and 8 of their 10 games this season have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300 or non Division 1 opponents. UMass Lowell’s best win on the season came in a 73-62 win over Brown, the 233rd ranked team in the country. The River Hawks overall offensive numbers are solid but let’s take into account they’ve faced 10 teams this year and 7 of those teams are ranked outside the top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency or they are non division 1 opponents. The best defense they faced this season, Rutgers, held them to 18 points below their season scoring average and allowed them to make only 42% of their shots and 22% of their 3-pointers. UMass has the 2nd best defense this team will face this season behind Rutgers. The Minutemen have faced the much more difficult schedule and have a similar record at 7-1. Because of UMass Lowell’s hot start, vs poor competition, we’re getting some value here with UMass. The Minutemen faced UMass Lowell last year here and were favored by -9.5 and won by 11. Now we’re getting them at -2 at home vs a program they’ve never lost to. UMass is 5-0 vs UMass Lowell winning by an average of 10 PPG. We’ll take the Minutemen at home on Thursday night. |
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12-07-22 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +4 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid value here with a Pitt team that is better than most think. They have just won back to back road games vs teams that are both better than this Vandy squad. Since losing 3 in a row back in mid November vs 3 very good opponents (WVU, Michigan, and VCU), the Panthers have won 5 straight including wins @ Northwestern (by 29 points) and @ NC State (by 8 points). They’ve covered their last 4 games by a combined 65 points or an average of 16.2 points per game. Vandy has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and of their 4 wins on the season, 3 came by 8 points or less with 2 coming by 3 points. The Commodores are just 2-2 at home this year including a 12 point loss to Southern Miss who ranks 180th currently. Not a huge home court advantage for Vandy as their record at Memorial Coliseum since the start of the 2020 season is just 17-17. Vandy’s PPG differential on the season is +1 PPG and they’ve faced 4 top 100 teams this year with a record of 1-3 in those games. Their only top 100 win was by 2 points in OT vs Temple. In what we expect to be a tight game, the FT line will be key. Vanderbilt rarely gets to the line and when they do they only make 61% of their FT’s (332nd). Pitt scores nearly 20% of their points from the FT line (115th nationally) and they make 74% as a team. We have this number set at Vandy -1 per our power ratings so we’ll take Pitt +4 here. |
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12-07-22 | Pacers v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers are exhausted at this point of the season as they are playing their 7th straight road game and are off a satisfying win over the World Champs Warriors. Minnesota is off a different result as they lost at home to the Thunder on Dec 3rd. They were off a huge game against the Grizzlies who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Now with 3 days rest and off that loss they’ll rebound with a big effort here. Indiana has a negative differential on the road of minus -4.7PPG and are 2-4 SU on this current trip. Minnesota has a losing home record this season which is a big reason why this line is as low as it is. The Wolves do have a winning record since the start of last season when coming off a loss. They also have a 19-19-2 ATS record at home as a favorite but their average Margin of Victory is +6.9PPG which gets us a cover here. |
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12-06-22 | Mavs v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Mavericks here as they are coming off a huge game on Monday night at home against the Suns. Denver meanwhile was off yesterday and is coming off a back-to-back losses on the road in New Orleans and Atlanta. These two teams met in late November in Dallas and split with each team winning a game. The Nuggets played without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic or 50.1-points per game, 13.8 rebounds per game and 13.8- assists per game and still split with the Mavs. Dallas is just 2-8 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Denver is 6-2 SU at home with the 5th best average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Dallas is 6-9-1 ATS their last sixteen games when playing without rest and the home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points with Denver here. |
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12-06-22 | Blackhawks v. Devils -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a blowout in the making with a New Jersey team that has won 20 of last 23 games after starting out 0-2 this season and now hosting a Blackhawks team that has won just 3 of last 18 games! That is why Devils a huge favorite of course but the value here is with the puck line at a very fair price. The fact is many of Chicago's recent losses (7 of last 9) have been blowout defeats! Devils off a tight win but 7 of 8 before that were by a multi-goal margin. |
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12-06-22 | Illinois +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
#607 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +4.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played on a neutral court – MSG in New York City. It’s the first time the Longhorns have left the state of Texas this season. They’ve played all home games + 1 sort of neutral site game in Edinburgh, TX vs a bad Northern Arizona team. Speaking of bad, the Texas strength of schedule is just that ranking outside the top 300. The only 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced are Gonzaga and Creighton, both in their home arena. We were on the Blue Jays +6.5 in that game and they hung tough getting us a cover losing by 5 despite making just 4 of their 27 three point attempts (15%). We really like this Illinois team and feel they will contend for a Big 10 title. They’ve played the much tougher schedule thus far including 1 true road game vs Maryland and a few neutral site games in Las Vegas vs Virginia & UCLA. The Illini have already faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 per our power ratings. They’ve beaten a very good UCLA team on the road and crushed Syracuse at home. Their 2 losses came at the hands of Virginia and @ Maryland 71-66 on Friday night. Those 2 teams are a combined 15-0 so far on the season. They match up well with Texas here who can’t shoot outside the arc (314th in 3 point percentage) and likes to score inside. Illinois has allowed opponents to shoot only 41% from inside the arc which is 11th best in the country. The Illini are the much bigger team as well and should control the boards vs a Texas team that has already been outrebounded in half of their games this season despite their weak schedule. Two very good defensive teams going head to head in MSG and we’re taking the points with Illinois in a game we expect to go to the wire. |
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12-05-22 | Saints +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +3.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - NFL teams off shutout losses have long been a very strong play the following week. Since 2015 teams that get shutout one week have a spread record of 26-12-3 ATS the following week. As an underdog off a shutout loss, those teams are 71-55-2 ATS the last 128 games that fall into that situation. New Orleans lost @ San Francisco 13-0 last week and we like them to cover here. Despite the 13-0 final, the Saints played a very good San Fran team pretty even. They each averaged 4.9 YPP but the Niners rank 14 more offensive snaps due to 2 New Orleans turnovers. On top of that, the Saints missed a FG, fumbled at the SF 6-yard line and were shut out on downs at the SF 4-yard line so they definitely had their chances. New Orleans is much better than their 4-8 record with a YPP differential of +0.5 which ranks 8th the league. Tampa is 14th in that category at +0.09. The Bucs are off an loss in OT vs a below average Cleveland team and since starting the season 2-0, in their last 9 games Tampa is 3-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS. Their 3 wins during that stretch have come by 3, 5, and 6 points vs teams that have a combined record of 14-19. They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 76 points or 8.4 PPG as they continue to be overvalued. In the first game this season, TB won 20-10 but they were outgained 4.7 YPP to 4.0 YPP and gifted 5 turnovers by the Saints including a 68 yard pick 6. Prior to that New Orleans had won 7 of the previous 8 match ups. Tampa is 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 3 or less this year and we like the Saints to get this cover on Monday night. |
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12-04-22 | Blackhawks v. Islanders -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
#36 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* New York Islanders Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Chicago Blackhawks, Sunday at 7:35 PM ET - Great set-up here. The Islanders are off B2B losses and that has been a rarity for them this season. In other words, the odds of a 3rd straight loss are very slim. That said, a blowout here is likely. The Islanders are a huge favorite on the money line for a reason. Where we get the line value here is with the puck line. Laying 1.5 goals is available at a nearly pick'em price and a home rout is likely. The Blackhawks are off a win but this was following a stretch in which they have lost 14 of 16 games including 8 straight before getting the win Saturday. So now they are in a B2B and of those 8 straight losses, 6 of them were by at least a 2 goal margin. This one will be too! Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite NY Islanders is the value play here. |
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12-04-22 | Jets +3 v. Vikings | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
#451 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Line value with Jets here in our opinion. This number basically says these 2 are even on a neutral field which we disagree with. Minnesota has the better record at 9-2 but they remain vastly overrated. They have a negative YPP differential and their point differential is just +5 on the season despite their 9 wins. There are 12 teams in the NFL that have better point differential than Minnesota and 29 teams that have a better YPP differential. That’s right, the Vikings rank 30th in YPP differential at -0.84 and the Jets rank 9th at +0.35 and NY has played the more difficult schedule. In their last 2 games, Minnesota was rolled at home by Dallas 40-3 and then “bounced back” to beat New England 33-26 but the Vikes were outgained by a whopping 2.0 YPP in that win. They allowed 26 points and 7.4 YPP to a Patriots offense that had 10 points on just 4.7 YPP on Thursday vs Buffalo. HUGE edge defensive here for the Jets as they allowed 5.1 YPP (5th) while Minnesota gives up 6.3 YPP (31st). New NY QB White is an upgrade over a struggling Wilson and while we don’t expect the huge numbers he had last week vs Chicago, he’ll do enough vs a Minnesota defense allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt (31st) to get the Jets a win here. We’ll take the points with the Jets on Sunday |
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12-03-22 | Blazers +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Blazers in this matchup as the Jazz are coming off a game last night, plus playing their 6th game in a nine day span. The Jazz are coming off a 20-point win over the Pacers last night but are just 3-3 SU their last six at home. The Blazers last played on Nov 30th, a loss to the Lakers who are clearly playing much better right now. Portland is 7-6 SU on the road this season with a +/- of minus -3.6PPG. Utah is 8-3 SU at home this season, but again they are in a very tough scheduling situation here. Dating back to the start of last season, the Jazz are just 9-9-1 ATS when playing without rest with a +/- of +2.9PPG. Utah is not a trustworthy favorite with a 35-50-2 ATS record since the start of the 2021 season, 3-6 ATS this season with a +/- of +2.8PPG. Portland as a dog is 11-5 ATS with a +/- of -3.4PPG. Grab whatever points are available and don’t be shocked if the Blazers win outright. |
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12-03-22 | Clemson -7.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
#321/322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -7.5 over UNC, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We like this spot for Clemson off a 1 point loss to a surging South Carolina team as a double digit favorite. It wasn’t a terrible loss by any means vs a surging Gamecocks team who had won 3 of their last 4 games including a 63-38 win over a top 5 Tennessee team. The Tigers blew a 9 point second half lead in that game and head coach Dabo Swinney made all of his coaches put in extra film time after that loss in preparation for the ACC Championship game. Clemson is very well coached and we feel they’ll play outstanding in this game after last week’s result. UNC is trending downward for sure. They have lost back to back games vs teams using back up QB’s. The Heels lost at home to a bad Georgia Tech team 21-17 on November 19th and the Jackets were without their starting QB Sims in that game and lost their back up during the game. UNC followed that loss up by getting beat again at home last Saturday by NC State who played their 3rd string QB Finley and he had only appeared in one other game this season. The offense, particularly, QB Maye looks like they are running out of gas. They struggled to put up yardage each of the last 2 weeks (350 and 365 total yards) and now they face one of the better defensive fronts in college football. Maye’s numbers have dropped off drastically the last 2 weeks as he has completed just 57% of his passes for 215 YPG through the air. Clemson with a huge edge defensively here (24th in total D to 117th for North Carolina) and they have a solid coaching advantage. Clemson is used to playing in big games like this and we like them to win by double digits. |
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12-03-22 | Kansas State +2 v. TCU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
#307 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State +2 over TCU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This line screams KSU in our opinion. We have an undefeated TCU team facing a 3 loss KSU team who they already beat this season and is playing for a spot in the College FB Playoff yet this line sits below 3 at just 2.5. Lots of pressure on the Horned Frogs here while a very good Kansas State team can play loose. In their first meeting this season @ TCU, the Wildcats led 28-10 near the end of the first half but blew the lead when they lost their starting QB Martinez AND their back up QB Howard in the game leaving a freshman at QB from mid 3rd quarter on. After Howard exited in the 3rd quarter, the Cats gained only 43 yards from that point on with their young, inexperienced 3rd string QB. We have no doubt that game would have played out differently had KSU had either of their top QB’s available down the stretch. They are both most likely available here. We know Howard will start and don’t be surprised if Martinez gets some snaps to keep the TCU defense guessing. Last week TCU rolled up a huge win 62-14 over Iowa State yet only outgained the Cyclones by 47 yards but ISU had a bunch of turnovers including 2 pick 6’s for the Frogs. It was ISU’s final game of the season, on the road, with nothing to play for. Prior to last week TCU had trailed or were tied in the 4th quarter in 5 of their previous 7 games but were able to win and nearly half of their wins (5) were one possession final scores. They were fortunate to be +7 turnovers in Big 12 play as well. We think TCU’s luck runs out here and KSU gets the upset. |
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12-02-22 | Bulls +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Bulls just played at Phoenix and were plus +5.5-points. Earlier in the same road trip they were plus +7.5-points at Milwaukee. Those two teams are in the top 3 or four teams in the NBA along with Boston. Tonight, Chicago is catching 7-points at the 11-11 Warriors. Granted, the Warriors have been very good at home this season with a 9-1 record and a +11PPG differential, but those numbers are padded with big wins over bad teams. Chicago has the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season with a +/- of -2.9PPG. Overall, the Bulls have the 12th best defensive efficiency rating in the league while the Warriors rank 21st and give up 1.137PPP. Off a humiliating loss in Phoenix we like the Bulls to rebound here and keep this game within the spread. |
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12-02-22 | Akron +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron +12 over Buffalo, Friday at 1 PM ET - The Bulls were playing for a spot in the MAC Championship game last weekend and with a win over Kent they would have been in. They blew a 14 point lead with under 3:00 minutes to go in the game and then lost in OT. This is a really tough bounce back spot for them even if they need this one to get to 6 wins on the season. It was a meaningless road game for Kent as they were already out of bowl contention and their starting QB Schlee came into that game injured. He only took a few snaps and the Golden FlashThe Flashes played 3 separate QB’s in that game, one of which hadn’t played a snap this season. Even with that, Kent still was able to win the game and outgain Buffalo in the process. The Bulls are catching an Akron team that is playing their best football of the season. Last week the Zips went into Northern Illinois as a 9 point dog and won the game outright 44-12! It wasn’t a fluke as they outgained the Huskies by 250 yards. They have now outgained their last 4 opponents and they’ve shown zero quit as the season comes to an end. Last week the Zips were without their starting QB Irons but their back up Undercuffler, who threw for over 6,000 career yards as a starter at Albany prior to transferring, looked great last week passing for 312 yards and 3 TD’s. Despite their records (Akron 2-9 / Buffalo 5-6) the Zips have very similar overall stats (-1.0 YPP differential to Buffalo’s -1.2 YPP differential / Akron -38 YPG and Buffalo -15 YPG) and we’re getting double digits. Buffalo hasn’t won a game in over a month (October 23 was their last win) and Akron continues to fight with their win last week and 5 of their last 7 losses coming by single digits. Take the points on Friday afternoon. |
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12-01-22 | Creighton +7 v. Texas | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
#751 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +7 over Texas, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Texas is 5-0 SU this season but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 180 and 3 of their 5 wins have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower. Their strength of schedule is currently 342nd after 5 games. Their lone top 100 win was here vs Gonzaga in the grand opening of their new arena and they were favored by 2 in that game. Now they are laying 4.5 to 5 points more vs a Creighton team that is every bit as good as Gonzaga this season. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in the season and they’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 3 straight top 30 opponents beating Texas Tech & Arkansas and losing by 2 points to Arizona. They return most of their key players from team that was 23-12 last year and nearly upended eventual National Champion Kansas in the 2nd round of the NCAA despite missing 2 starters (Nembhard and Kalkenbrenner who are both back). They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging at least 12 PPG and they rank in the top 12 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 2 point FG%. The Jays are very good in the backcourt which is key here as Texas thrives on creating turnovers (4th nationally) to help create offense yet Creighton doesn’t turn the ball over very much (17th nationally). Creighton should be able to keep Texas off the offensive boards (9th nationally in defensive rebounding) and off the FT line where their opponents have scored just 8% of their total points. This is absolutely a game the Jays can win and we’re getting significant points. They are very well coached and have had a full week off since losing by a bucket to an undefeated Arizona team. Take the points. |
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11-30-22 | Pacers v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 114-137 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 10:10 PM ET - The Kings opened the season 0-4 with three of those L’s coming at home and it looked like we were going to see another year of the same ole Kings. They’ve rebounded nicely from that slow start to win 10 of their last fifteen games. Included in that streak is a 7-1 SU home record with some impressive wins over the Heat, Cavs, Warriors and Nets. The lone loss in that stretch was at home last time out against the Suns 117-122. Sacramento has the 11th best average point differential at home this season of +4.9PPG. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency at home behind the Celtics. Indiana is off a big road win over the Lakers and will likely let down here. The Pacers have a negative differential on the road of minus -1.1PPG which is 20th in the NBA. They have a 5-4 SU road record but only one of those victories came against a team with a current winning record and that is the 11-10 Wizards. I’m buying the Kings here and will lay the points. |
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11-30-22 | Bucks v. Knicks +6 | 109-103 | Push | 0 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* NY Knicks +6 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - This line is inflated as the Knicks are coming off a game last night while the Bucks are rested. But the Knicks won big last night in Detroit and were able to spread their minutes throughout the bench. The value in this number is obvious as the Bucks were favored by -6-points at home earlier this season, which means this should be a small dog or even a pick’em. New York was just a +2-point home dog to Memphis the other night. The Bucks have been dominating at home with a 11-2 SU record but on the road they sport a 3-3 record. They are just 1-3 SU their last four away from home which includes a loss to the lowly Spurs. The Knicks are 11-4 ATS when playing without rest since the start of last season and they’ve won those games by an average of +2.8PPG and covered the number by +5.7PPG. Grab the value with New York tonight. |
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11-30-22 | Middle Tennessee v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over Middle Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for MTSU. They have been in Montreal Canada since last Thursday. They played games in Montreal on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Now just 72 hours after finishing their last game in Canada, they have to play St Bonnies in Western NY. MTSU won all 3 games in Canada so we’re getting some value here with the number because of that. They beat Hofstra, Stephen F Austin, and Montana State with the last game going to the wire winning 72-71 vs a Bobcat team that now has a 3-5 record. The Blue Raiders have played 2 true road games this year losing both by 8 @ Winthrop and by 24 @ Missouri State, both rated lower than this St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies have some great momentum coming into this game after beating Notre Dame on a neutral court last Friday 63-51. So they’ve had 5 full days to get ready for this one which is a much better situation when compared to Middle Tennessee State. STB have a great home court advantage with a 3-0 record this season and 16-2 since the beginning of last season. Their 2 losses this season both came on the road by 4 in OT and by 4 in regulation. This team has surprised early and they are very close to being undefeated. Mark Schmidt is a terrific head coach who has been at St Bonnies since 2008 and has had winning seasons in 12 of the last 13 years. He’ll have his team well prepared and playing great defense as they rank 50th in eFG% defense and 26th in 3 point FG% defense. We expect a tired MTSU team that is simply ready to get home (they stayed in Montreal after their game on Sunday) and the STB defense will wear them down. Lay the small number. |
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11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers -3.5 | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 vs. LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Blazers have a better “depleted” lineup than the Clipper injury riddled lineup. Portland it without Damian Lillard but the Clippers don’t have Paul George or Kawhi Leonard. Also, out for the Clippers is Luke Kennard and John Wall. Portland is off a tough 4-game road trip which ended with a very poor showing against the Nets. The Clippers are off a win over the Pacers, but it took a monster effort from their Center Zubac who scored 31-points and grabbed 29-rebounds. That was understandable considering the Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to points allowed to Centers. L.A. has just 1 win on the road versus a team with a winning record and that was the 2nd game of the season against the Kings. Portland is 4-4 SU at home this season, but all 4 losses have come against teams that made the Playoffs a year ago. Portland off a double-digit loss is on a 4-0 ATS streak and we are betting they get a big win tonight. |
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11-29-22 | Georgia Tech v. Iowa -15.5 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
#632 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -15.5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Like this spot at home for Iowa after coming off a loss as a 6.5 point favorite vs TCU on Saturday. That game was on a neutral site in Florida. The Hawkeyes shot poorly vs a very good defensive team (TCU) hitting just 43% overall and 18% from beyond the arc, both well below their season averages. We expect those numbers to skyrocket at home tonight where they always shoot well. This season they are 3-0 at home, averaging 100 PPG and hitting 53% of their FG’s. We don’t expect triple digits here but the Hawks have been tough to beat at home winning 22 of their last 25 games and they’ve averaged 89 PPG in those 22 home wins. We just don’t think Georgia Tech can keep up here. They are not a good shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG% and they sit outside the top 285 in both 3 point and 2 point FG%. The Jackets are coming off a win vs a terrible North Alabama team (ranked 328th) that plays zero defense. Tech scored 80 in that game, however prior to that they had averaged just 62 PPG their previous 4 contests. They’ve played one top 60 team this year (Marquette rated 59th) and lost by 24 points on a neutral site. We have Iowa power rated in the top 25 so this will be the best team GT has played this season. The Hawks were just favored by 6.5 and 9 vs TCU & Clemson on a neutral site – both top 65 teams. That means at home they would’ve been favored by 10ish and 13ish vs 2 teams that are much better than Georgia Tech who most are projecting to finish last in the ACC. Despite laying 14, the value is on the home team here. Iowa should be able to put up big points at home as they usually do and unless the Yellow Jackets perform well above expectations, they just won’t score enough to cover this one. |
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11-28-22 | Seattle University +5.5 v. Washington | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +5.5 over Washington, Monday at 10 PM ET - Huge game for a really solid Seattle team here getting to play their in-state big brother. These 2 met last season and Washington won by just 8 despite attempting 22 FT’s to Seattle’s 5. Despite that loss, the Redhawks went on to win the WAC title last season and finish with a 23-9 overall record. They return 7 of their top 9 players this season and they’ve started with 5 straight wins. That includes a 12 point win over a very good Portland team who took Michigan State and North Carolina to the wire (lost by 1 & 8) and beat Villanova. They catch the Huskies in a rough spot. Washington just upset St Mary’s in OT in their most recent game but were a bit fortunate as they trailed by 5 with just over 1 minute remaining. The Huskies also start Pac 12 play on Thursday of this week so they very well might be a bit flat here. If they are, they won’t win this game much less cover the 5 points. While Seattle brings back nearly everyone from last year’s team, Washington returns only 1 player that started in last year’s game vs Seattle and only 2 players that played 10 minutes or more. UW already has a 9 point home loss at the hands of Cal Baptist and Seattle will be the 2nd highest rated team they’ve faced this season behind St Mary’s. The Huskies last 4 wins have come by 8, 9, 5, and 4 points and 2 of those teams are currently ranked outside the top 200. Seattle is a very dangerous dog here as they are a very good shooting team (15th nationally in eFG%) and they can score from deep hitting almost 42% of their 3’s on the year (11th nationally). We look for this to be close throughout and we’ll grab the points with Seattle. |
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11-28-22 | Steelers +2.5 v. Colts | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show | |
#275 ASA PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Indianapolis Colts, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Weird number here that sits at +2.5 instead of +3 which would tend to push bettors toward the host Colts in this game. There is a reason this is sitting at +2.5 and not moving this week. Pittsburgh is in a much better situational spot here after having a bye 2 weeks ago and they’ve played 2 games since so they should be well rested. Indy has yet to have a bye this season and is playing for the 12th straight week. The Steelers offense has improved as of late with Pickett getting comfortable at QB. Since their bye week they have scored 50 points and racked up 780 total yards in their 2 games vs New Orleans and Cincinnati who both rank in the top 12 in total defense. Meanwhile the Pitt defense has TJ Watt back in the line up which makes a huge difference on that side of the ball for them. They have 8 total sacks in the 2 games since he came back and they are facing an Indy offensive line that allowed more sacks than any team in the NFL and an immobile QB Matt Ryan. The Colts have played 2 games under interim coach Jeff Saturday beating a bad Las Vegas team by 5 and then losing to Philly last week. The Steelers are improving and they’ve played the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far this season. We like the coaching advantage here as well with Mike Tomlin vs Jeff Saturday. |
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11-27-22 | Florida v. West Virginia +1.5 | Top | 55-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
#788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* West Virginia +1.5 over Florida, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET - The better team is getting points on a neutral site here. We have WVU rated as 2 points better than Florida right now on a neutral court so we’ll take the value with the Mountaineers. Florida is still working on a new system on both sides of the ball with head coach Golden who came over from San Francisco in the off-season. The Gators are also working in 4 key transfers currently in their top 6 in the rotation. They’ve played 2 top 100 teams this season and lost to both, Xavier and Florida Atlantic. The Gators best win this season is vs a depleted Florida State team that currently has a record of 1-6. WVU is 5-1 on the year with 5 double digit wins and their only loss coming vs Purdue who is playing as well as any team in the country right now (just beat Gonzaga by 18). Head coach Bob Huggins has a deep team this season and he has consistently played 9 or 10 guys which will come in handy playing their 3rd game in 4 days (Florida has also played 3 games in 4 days). They have shot the ball very well this season (25th nationally in eFG%) and their defensive pressure has been tough for teams to handle with WVU ranking 9th nationally in creating turnovers. Florida has decent numbers offensively in regards to turnovers, however they haven’t faced a team ranked in the top 160 in defensive turnover rate. Both these teams played on Friday and we feel the coaching advantage in this situation is with Bob Huggins with short prep time over Golden who is only in his 4th season as a college head coach. Our metrics have WVU better offensively and defensively and they should get some extra possessions due to their defensive pressure. Take the points with West Virginia |
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11-27-22 | Mavs v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - We are not as high on the Mavericks and most prognosticators and like this spot to fade them. Dallas is off a game last night in Toronto, a 5-point loss as a -2.5 point favorite. The game before that they lost at Boston +5.5 points. In the game against the Celtics the Mavs trailed big for most of the game before making it respectable late. Last night Luka Doncic played 42 minutes so don’t be surprised if they manage his workload here. Dallas is 1-6 SU away from home with a negative differential of -4.7PPG. Milwaukee is 10-2 SU at home with a +/- of +9PPG. The Mavs 26th ranked scoring offense at 108.7PPG will have a tough time putting up points against a Bucks team that allows the 4th fewest points per game at 107.2PPG. |
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11-27-22 | Falcons +4 v. Commanders | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +4 vs. Washington Commanders, 1 PM ET - It’s interesting to note that despite Washington having a winning record and the Falcons a losing one, their +/- point differential is nearly the same. In fact, Atlanta ranks higher than Washington in overall DVOA rankings. Three of the Falcons 6 losses this season have come by 4 or less points, four of six have come by 6-points or less. Washington is coming off a 13-point win over Houston after a huge upset in Philadelphia the week before. On the season the Commanders have six wins but 4 of those have come by 6-points or less. In terms of yards per play, the Falcons average 5.6YPP offensively and give up 6.0YPP. Washington averages just 5.5YPP on offense and gives up 5.1YPP. The Falcons ball control offense that features a rushing attack averaging 159.3RYPG should be able to keep this game close throughout. Washington is 6-4-1 ATS their last eleven when coming off a win but their average Margin of Victory in those games is -2.4PPG. Atlanta is 9-6 ATS their last 15 when coming off a loss with a negative differential of -1.1PPG. This one shapes up to be a field goal game for either team so we’ll grab the points. |
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11-26-22 | Thunder v. Rockets +2 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Rockets +2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - Scheduling is the main factor for this wager as the Thunder are in a tough spot here. OKC is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and two straight overtime games. This is also their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. Meanwhile Houston is also off a game last night but had 4 days off prior to last night. The Rockets beat Atlanta yesterday and have been competitive in recent games against Golden State, Indianapolis and have a win over Dallas. Houston has a huge edge on the glass as the 9th best defensive rebounding team in the NBA and 3rd best offensive rebounding. In comparison the Thunder rank 11th in O-rebounding but 30th in defensive rebounding. Houston won 3 of four meetings last year and will continue that trend tonight. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#126 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Oregon, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This seems like a line most would grab Oregon based on the situation. The Ducks are playing for a spot in the Pac 12 Championship game yet only favored by a FG vs OSU. We actually think it’s a tough spot for Oregon as they’ve come off back to back emotional, down to the wire games the last 2 weeks. They were upended by Washington 37-34 when the Huskies scored 2 TDs in the final 3:10 to get the win. Last week Oregon played host to Utah and picked up a tight 20-17 win but the Utes had plenty of chances to get the W but had 3 turnovers, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs 3 times in Oregon territory. Three huge games in a row can be really tough on a team and we have a feeling the Ducks struggle here. Their QB Nix is really banged up right now and didn’t look even close to 100% last week. OSU is flying under the radar right now. Despite getting very little publicity, this team is 8-3 and they’ve won 5 of their last 6. The Beavers had one bad game this year vs Utah in which they outgained the Utes but turned the ball over 4 times including a pick 6. Other than that, their other 2 losses were by 3 points vs USC and by 3 points @ Washington. They run the ball very well (194 YPG) and their defense is sneaky good ranking 25th nationally. OSU has beaten the Ducks 2 of the last 3 times in Corvallis and they’d like nothing better than to ruin Oregon’s Pac 12 title hopes. We like OSU + the points and think they have a great shot at the upset. |
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11-26-22 | Georgia State v. Marshall -6.5 | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
#178 ASA PLAY ON 8* Marshall -6.5 over Georgia State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for Georgia State on the road facing a surging Marshall team. GSU played James Madison to the wire last week before losing 42-40. That game was a killer for the Panthers as they were looking to get to a bowl game for the 4th consecutive season and knew they need to win their last 2 games to accomplish that. Coming up short last week and now going on the road again is not an ideal situation. While last week’s game was close on the scoreboard, Georgia State was outgained by a hefty 168 yards but James Madison gifted the Panthers 4 turnovers including 2 fumbles that were returned for TD’s. So that game should not have been that close and GSU was lucky to even be in it. Now they face a Marshall team that has been lights out winning 4 of their last 5 games. Their only loss during that stretch was vs Coastal Carolina, who is already locked into the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, and Marshall actually outgained them by 136 yards despite the loss. The Thundering Herd have a great defense ranked 10th nationally and they match up perfectly with GSU’s offense. The Panthers have very little passing game and rely on running the ball. Marshall ranks 6th nationally allowing only YPG on the ground. Remember, Marshall beat Notre Dame on the road this season and held a potent Irish running game to 130 yards which is 60+ yards below their season average. This is Marshall’s final home game and with a win they can get to 8 wins on the season. Under a TD at home is line value for Marshall and we’ll lay it. |
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11-26-22 | Old Dominion v. South Alabama -15 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
#182 ASA PLAY ON 8* South Alabama -15 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We played against ODU last week @ App State and what looked like it was going to be an easy win, turned into a loss. App State (-16) was up 24-0 at half and up 27-0 with under 9 minutes remaining in the game. ODU scored 2 late TD’s to make the final 27-14 costing us a win. We’re coming right back and going against the Monarchs on Saturday. They are 16 point dogs again @ South Alabama which is big time value in our opinion. We have USA a full TD better than App State on a neutral field yet this number is the same as it was last week. The Jaguars are 9-2 on the season and still have a shot at the Sun Belt Championship Game. They need to win here and then have Troy lose their game (later in the day) and that would send the Jags to the Championship game. Not only that, a win here gets them to 10 wins for the first time ever as a Division 1 team (joined D1 in 2012). This is a huge home game for them. USA is really close to being undefeated this season with a 1 point loss @ UCLA (Bruins kicked a FG as time expired) and a 4 point loss vs Troy who they are tied for first place with in the Sun Belt West. ODU has now lost 5 straight games and over their last 4 they’ve been outgained by 680 total yards and scored only 34 total points (8.5 PPG). They are 3-8 with nothing to play for and on the road for their 2nd consecutive week. We expect the ODU offense to continue to struggle vs a South Alabama defense ranked 13th nationally. On the other side of the ball, USA averages 34 PPG at home this season and they are facing a Monarch defense ranked 117th. This has the makings of a blowout and we’ll lay the points. |
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11-25-22 | Nebraska v. Iowa -10.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
#132 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Iowa -10.5 over Nebraska, Friday at 4 PM ET - A win here sends Iowa to the Big 10 Championship game representing the West division. We can’t imagine Nebraska will be hyped to play this game. They are out of bowl consideration and put everything into last week’s home finale vs Wisconsin and lost 15-14 when the Badgers scored a TD with 30 seconds remaining. It’s not as if the Huskers dominated the game and blew it at the end. They were very fortunate to be in it as they gained only 171 total yards and were outgained by 147 yards. The Nebraska offense has been shut down over the last month scoring 9, 13, 3, and 14 points their last 4 games. The last 2 weeks they were held under 175 total yards vs both Wisconsin and Michigan. Now they face an Iowa defense that is every bit as good as those 2 stop units so we expect very little, if anything, out of the Nebraska offense. So we’re laying double digits with an Iowa offense that has struggled most of the year. Can they do enough to get this cover? We think so. Taking a close look at their schedule, Iowa’s offense has played one of the tougher slates of opposing defenses this season. 6 of the 11 defenses they’ve faced are ranked in the top 15 nationally. All but 2 of the defenses the Hawkeyes have faced rank inside the top 35. The 2 defenses they’ve played that were not good were Northwestern (72nd ranked defense) and Nevada (96th ranked defense) and they put up 33 and 27 points in those 2 contests. On Friday they face a Nebraska defense that ranks 108th which is the worst Iowa has played this season. Iowa’s offense has looked much better down the stretch averaging 24 PPG over their last 4 vs defenses much better than Nebraska’s. If they get to that here, we think the cover. Big disparity on defense and in “want to” here in favor of Iowa so we’ll lay it. |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
#120 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Missouri +4 over Arkansas, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - We were on Arkansas last weekend in what was a huge game for them. They were home dogs and needed to beat Ole Miss to clinch bowl eligibility. They did just that and now they are on the road in a potential letdown spot. Despite the win last week, the Razors defense has some serious deficiencies. The offense played great but the defense allowed 700 yards to the Rebs. They currently rank 121st in total defense and on the road they are 2-2 on the season allowing 32 PPG. They haven’t played a very tough road slate despite their 2-2 record beating Auburn & BYU while losing @ Mississippi State and @ Texas A&M, whose season has been a disaster. In fact, A&M’s only conference win this year was at home vs Arkansas. Mizzou is in a similar situation to the Razors last week. They are 5-6 and have to win this game to get to a bowl. Their defense, unlike Arkansas, has been very good ranking 30th nationally so we’re getting a desperate home underdog with the much better defense. The Tigers are 4-2 at home this year with tight 4 point losses to Georgia & Kentucky. No other team has played to within 10 points of UGA this year. While Arkansas was putting all of their time and energy into beating LSU to reach 6 wins last week, Missouri had a “semi” bye beating New Mexico State bad and you can bet they were also preparing for this game in the week leading up to that. These 2 teams have played similar strength of schedules and their stats are pretty close with Mizzou +0.1 YPP and +25 YPG while Arkansas is -0.1 YPP and +16 YPG. The host has covered 9 of the last 10 in this series and this one is much more important for the Tigers. |
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11-24-22 | Patriots v. Vikings -2.5 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over New England Patriots, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Patriots 6-3 SU their last nine games but only 2 of those wins have come against a team with a winning record and that’s the Jets. The other 4 wins in that stretch come against teams with a combined 14-26 SU record. That ties into the fact the Pats have played the 21st easiest schedule according to our rankings. In contrast, the Vikings are 8-2 SU on the year, yet have faced the 9th toughest schedule to date. We can bang on the Vikings all we want but the fact of the matter is they’ve found ways to win. 3 of their last four wins have been quality W’s with victories over 7-3 Dolphins, 7-3 Bills and the 6-5 Redskins. New England is 4th in the league in YPG allowed and 6th in yards per play allowed at 4.9. But again, how much of that is a byproduct of playing the Steelers, Jets twice, Colts who rank 26th or worse in yards per play gained. Minnesota doesn’t have impressive overall statistics with an offense that averages 5.3 yards per play and 338YPG but they’ve also faced some of the leagues better defenses. Home/road numbers support the Vikings. Minnesota has a net +0.3 yards per play differential at home, the Pats are negative at minus -0.4. Minnesota had won 3 straight at home prior to an embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys last week so expect a rebound here. |
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ASA ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-20-23 | Clippers -7 v. Spurs | Top | 131-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
01-19-23 | Washington State v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
01-18-23 | Hawks +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
01-18-23 | Duquesne v. St Bonaventure +1.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
01-17-23 | Texas v. Iowa State -2.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
01-16-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky +4.5 | Top | 76-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
01-15-23 | Thunder v. Nets -5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
01-14-23 | 76ers -4 v. Jazz | Top | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
01-14-23 | Coyotes v. Wild -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
01-14-23 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
01-14-23 | Providence v. Creighton -6.5 | Top | 67-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
01-13-23 | Magic +6 v. Jazz | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
01-13-23 | Jets +1.5 v. Penguins | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
01-13-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -12.5 | Top | 67-104 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
01-12-23 | Gonzaga v. BYU +7 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
01-12-23 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
01-10-23 | Illinois v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 76-50 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
01-10-23 | Hornets +8 v. Raptors | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
01-09-23 | Magic v. Kings -6 | Top | 111-136 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | Top | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
01-08-23 | Maple Leafs v. Flyers +1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
01-08-23 | Patriots +7.5 v. Bills | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
01-07-23 | Magic v. Warriors -6 | Top | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
01-07-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders +9.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
01-05-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 124-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
01-04-23 | TCU v. Baylor -5 | Top | 88-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
01-04-23 | Thunder v. Magic -2 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
01-02-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
01-01-23 | Steelers +2.5 v. Ravens | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants -5.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
01-01-23 | Bears v. Lions -6 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
12-31-22 | TCU v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 51-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
12-31-22 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
12-30-22 | Clemson v. Tennessee +5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
12-30-22 | NC State v. Clemson -1.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
12-30-22 | Pittsburgh v. UCLA -7.5 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
12-28-22 | Kansas +3 v. Arkansas | Top | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 90 h 24 m | Show |
12-28-22 | Central Florida v. Duke -3 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
12-27-22 | Hawks -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
12-26-22 | Chargers -4 v. Colts | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
12-26-22 | Clippers -5.5 v. Pistons | 142-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
12-24-22 | Lions v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 23-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
12-23-22 | Clippers v. 76ers -3 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Seattle University v. Utah State -9.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Flyers +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 3-4 | Win | 121 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
12-21-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +1.5 | Top | 79-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. San Jose State | Top | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
12-19-22 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 12-24 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
12-18-22 | Magic v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
12-18-22 | Lions v. Jets +1 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 45 m | Show | |
12-17-22 | Boise State -10.5 v. North Texas | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Mavs v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Jazz v. Bucks -6.5 | 97-123 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
12-17-22 | Fresno State -4 v. Washington State | 29-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
12-15-22 | Flyers v. Devils -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
12-14-22 | Red Wings v. Wild -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 120 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
12-13-22 | Marshall v. NC-Greensboro +4.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
12-12-22 | Cavs -5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
12-10-22 | Wolves v. Blazers -5.5 | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show | |
12-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. South Dakota State -8 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
12-09-22 | Kings v. Cavs -4 | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
12-08-22 | UMass Lowell v. Massachusetts -2 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
12-07-22 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
12-07-22 | Pacers v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
12-06-22 | Mavs v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
12-06-22 | Blackhawks v. Devils -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
12-06-22 | Illinois +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
12-05-22 | Saints +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
12-04-22 | Blackhawks v. Islanders -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
12-04-22 | Jets +3 v. Vikings | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Blazers +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Clemson -7.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Kansas State +2 v. TCU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
12-02-22 | Bulls +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
12-02-22 | Akron +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Creighton +7 v. Texas | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
11-30-22 | Pacers v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 114-137 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
11-30-22 | Bucks v. Knicks +6 | 109-103 | Push | 0 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
11-30-22 | Middle Tennessee v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers -3.5 | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
11-29-22 | Georgia Tech v. Iowa -15.5 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
11-28-22 | Seattle University +5.5 v. Washington | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
11-28-22 | Steelers +2.5 v. Colts | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show | |
11-27-22 | Florida v. West Virginia +1.5 | Top | 55-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Mavs v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Falcons +4 v. Commanders | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
11-26-22 | Thunder v. Rockets +2 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
11-26-22 | Georgia State v. Marshall -6.5 | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
11-26-22 | Old Dominion v. South Alabama -15 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
11-25-22 | Nebraska v. Iowa -10.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
11-24-22 | Patriots v. Vikings -2.5 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |