#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Providence -2 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 12:40 PM ET - SDSU has become a way too popular underdog in this game. We basically need the Friars to just win the game with the current number. Many have brought up the Friars “luck” on the season as they’ve won a number of close games. However, the fact is, they know how to win those games and they won the Big East regular season title with a 14-3 conference record. Their only regular season conference losses were @ Marquette and 2 losses to Villanova, a 2-seed in the Dance, by 2 & 5 points. South Dakota State won the Summit League title but that is a league without a single team, besides SDSU, ranked in the top 100. The Jackrabbits played only 4 top 100 teams all season long going 2-2 in those games beating Washington State & Bradley while losing to Bama & Missouri State. The last top 100 team SDSU faced was back on December 15th. Providence played 17 games vs top 100 teams with a record of 12-5 SU. SDSU’s offensive numbers are very good but let’s take into account they did not face a top 130 defense in conference play. The Summit League is known for poor defenses with 4 of their 10 teams ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency and 8 of the 10 outside the top 200. Providence will be the best defense they’ve faced since early December. The Friars played 9 games this season without either Reeves or Bynum, two of their best players, but are 100% healthy entering the tourney. They have a big size advantage inside and should control the glass in this game. The Friars can shoot it a little as well as they were the best 3-point shooting team in Big East play and they have one of the better big men in this tourney, Nate Watson (14 PPG, 6 RPG). With this line sitting not far from pick-em we’ll fade possibly the most popular dog in round one and side with Providence.

#696 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +1 over Notre Dame, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET - We have Rutgers rated as the better team here and as of this writing, we’re getting points. Rutgers played in the much tougher conference so they faced the tougher schedule (34th SOS for Rutgers / 68th SOS for Notre Dame). The Scarlet Knights were 6-6 this year in Quad 1 Games (Home vs top 30 NET teams + Neutral site vs top 50 teams + Away vs top 75 teams). Notre Dame was 2-8 in their Quad 1 games. If we throw in Quad 2 results as well, the Irish were only 4-9 in those games. Not impressive. Along those lines, Notre Dame had just 3 wins all season vs teams ranked in the top 75 on Ken Pom. Rutgers has 8 wins this season vs teams currently ranked in the top 75. That doesn’t tell the whole story as in fact all 8 of those wins came vs teams ranked in the top 40! The Irish rely very heavily on the 3 point shot which we don’t always love when playing at an unfamiliar venue. They score just 46% of their points inside the arc which is 311th nationally. Rutgers, on the other hand, scores nearly 58% of their points inside the arc and they are facing a ND defense that struggles to defend inside. In fact, the Irish have allowed their opponents to score 57% of their points from 2 point range which is 23rd most in the nation. We think Rutgers controls the inside and unless ND shoots lights out from deep, we’ll be OK here. ND played 2 Big 10 teams this year and lost by 10 vs Illinois and by 8 vs Indiana. Rutgers played 1 ACC team this season and beat Clemson by 10. The Scarlet Knights have been a money maker as a dog this season with an 11-5 ATS record and we like them to win this game

#709 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iona +6.5 over Florida, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - What an extremely tough situation for a Florida team facing a very solid opponent in Iona on Wednesday. First of all the Gators have to overcome the disappointment of not making the NCAA tourney for the first time since 2016. They were expecting to be there again this year and lost 5 of their last 8 games to take them out of consideration. Secondly, they just lost their coach on Sunday as Mike White accepted the head coaching job at SEC rival Georgia. Assistant coach, Al Pinkins, who has never been a head coach will take this team over for their NIT game/games. That’s a lot of emotional baggage, so to speak, to overcome in a short time. They will be facing an Iona team, let by one of the top coaches in CBB history, Rick Pitino so a strong coaching edge to the Gaels in this game. They are a veteran team with 4 senior starters, that played one of the tougher low major schedules in the country. Iona finished 25-7 including a win over Alabama who beat Florida by 13 on the road in their only meeting this season. They were the best team in the MAAC all season long but were upset by Rider 71-70 in the conference tourney. They are a very good defensive team (46th eFG% allowed) and they defend the 3 very well (29th nationally) which is key here as the Gators like to launch from beyond the arc. The Gaels also have decent size and they are a solid rebounding team so they should hang with Florida on the boards. They have only 1 loss this season by more than 9 points and that was vs #1 seed Kansas (lost by 13). Iona will give the Gators all they can handle here. We expect it to be close throughout and we grab the points.

#705 ASA PLAY ON 8* Nicholls State +15.5 over SMU, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Almost no way SMU brings their “A” game here. They were among the most devasted teams to be left out of the Big Dance. Here are some quotes from SMU coach Jankovich which speaks volumes. "I saw a group of guys completely devastated and heartbroken. In my eyes, they're 100% an NCAA tournament team. I hope they don't let what a small committee of others believes change how they feel about themselves.” Now to have to play in a meaningless (to them) game will be very tough. Nicholls State is just happy to still be playing. They are veteran team with 5 senior starters that was the top team all season long in the Southern Conference. They won the regular season title but were upset by Texas A&M CC in the conference tourney. The Colonels played some tough competition quite well before entering their conference slate. They lost by 3 @ Wisconsin, by 14 @ Purdue, and by 13 @ TCU. They also beat a very solid Northern Iowa team on the road. They are a decent shooting team (69th nationally in eFG%) and they have pretty good size for a low major team and won’t get dominated on the boards vs a poor rebounding SMU team. NSU had a winning 10-9 SU record on the road this season. This line is a bit high in our opinion even not taking the emotional letdown in mind here. 2 teams in the AAC that were similarly rated to Nicholls State were Tulsa and USF. SMU was favored by 10.5 and 14.5 at home in those games and won both of those games by 14. Too many points to begin with and factoring in the situation we like Nicholls State.

#665 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indiana -3.5 over Wyoming, Tuesday at 9:10 PM ET - IU has already pulled out the disrespect card in regards to being chosen to take part in one of the play in games. They felt they were firmly in the field and in hindsight they barely made it in. Hoosier star forward Trace Jackson-Davis took to Instagram after the selection process, ““Some disrespect. We in. That’s all that matters.” Expect IU to play with a chip on their shoulder in front of what will be like a home crowd for them. Dayton is just 160 miles from Bloomington and this storied program hasn’t been to the Dance since 2016 so we can expect the Crimson & White fans to be all over Dayton Arena on Tuesday night. Wyoming had a solid year but struggled down the stretch winning 4 of their last 9 games. 2 of those 4 wins came vs teams ranked outside the top 100 (Air Force & Nevada) and the 2 others were by 2 points and in OT. It’s also a rough match up for the Cowboys as they played through the post offensive as much as any team in the nation and IU excels at defending inside (8th best at near proximity shots & 14th best at defending mid range shots). Indiana is finally healthy as well after missing two key players (Galloway & Phinisee) for a number of games down the stretch. Now with them back in the lineup they seem to be peaking beating Michigan, Illinois, and nearly taking down a red hot Iowa in the Big 10 tourney. Lay the points.

#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -4.5 over Oregon, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Ducks will most likely have zero interest in playing this game. They are on the road, in the NIT, vs a MWC team. This is an Oregon team who tanked it down the stretch. They were in line for a highly probably NCAA bid in mid February with a 17-8 record, 10-4 in the Pac 12. They proceeded to drop 6 of their final 8 games to officially drop out of NCAA consideration. This is not where this team wanted to be. They are also shorthanded with starting PG Richardson and leading scorer (14 PPG) mostly likely out for the 4th consecutive game. The Ducks are 1-3 with him out of the line up with their only win coming over last place Oregon State. On top of that, starting F Dante (8 PPG, 6 RPG) missed practice on Sunday with an injury. We envision this team showing up and playing out the string in this one. USU, on the other hand, is thrilled to be hosting a Pac 12 team in the NIT. They stated as much on Sunday night. They rarely host a high major type team. In fact, the last time the Aggies played host to a Power 5 team was way back on 2014 when the topped USC here by 13 points. They will be pumped for this game. Not only that, they are a very solid team. They rank in the top 50 in offensive efficiency and in the top 25 in eFG%. They shoot 48% at home and win by an average margin of +11 points. They are a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up. Oregon underachieved all season with a terrible 12-20 ATS record and we don’t expect that to change tonight. USU is the play.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +7.5 over Boston Celtics, 3:30 PM ET - The Celtics have been playing lights out and garnering a ton of media attention which has driven this line higher than it should be. If I ask you which of these teams has a better overall record you would be quick to tell me Boston. If I were to say who has won 12 of their last fifteen you would probably reply Boston. In reality the team I’m talking about is Dallas. The Mavs have flown under the radar for most of the season and are the bet in this situation. Dallas owns the 8th best average point differential in the NBA at +3.1PPG. Boston is slightly better at +5.7PPG. Boston owns a slightly better overall offensive efficiency rating but both are near equal defensively ranking 3rd (Boston) and 5th (Dallas). Boston has the 5th best home average margin of victory in the league at +5.7PPG but Dallas holds the 7th best road differential at +1.7PPG. Dallas has been an underdog of more than +7.5 points just three times this season and they are perfect against the spread in those games or 3-0 ATS. Boston hasn’t faired well as a bigger favorite this season with a 7-11 ATS mark when laying -7.5 or more points. Dallas has covered 9 of the last 12 meetings in Beantown. Grab the points.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Davidson -3.5 over Richmond, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - While Richmond is playing for a spot in the Big Dance, we think this is a terrible spot for them. It’s the Spiders 4th game in 4 days and to be honest, they’ve been a bit lucky to get to this spot. They’ve held their first 3 opponents to just 25% from 3-point land which is a big time outlier as the Spiders rank 211th nationally and 11th in the A10 at defending the arc. They now play a Davidson team that ranks 7th nationally shooting from deep hitting almost 39% of their 3’s. They also rank 10th in the country in offensive efficiency and 11th in eFG%. Richmond has also held their first 3 opponents in this tourney to just 62 PPG which is more than 10 points below what they gave up per game during the season. Tired legs playing their 4th straight game will make it very tough today vs one of the best offensive teams in the nation. Richmond was down 15 in the 2nd half yesterday vs Dayton and made a furious comeback to win a close won. They led for a total of 2 minutes the entire game. Davidson is well rested and ready here. They blew out Fordham to open the tourney and they destroyed a very good St Louis team yesterday. The Wildcats have been able to spread out their minutes with 8 players playing double digit minutes in each game. They are also playing their 3rd game in this tourney while Richmond is playing their 4th. These 2 met once this season and Davidson won that game @ Richmond. We realize this is a huge game for the Spiders, but teams that “have to” win don’t always win. We think they run out of gas here vs the better team. Lay the number.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -3 over Cleveland Cavaliers - The Cavs are coming off a big game last night in Miami and have a tough matchup here against a highly motivated Bulls team that is 1-5 SU their last six games. The lack of rest for the Cavaliers is magnified in this game as they are missing two of their top 6 players with LeVert and Allen sidelined. With rest advantage the Bulls are 12-5 SU (10-7 ATS) +3.4PPG in those 17 contests. The home team has won 4 straight in this rivalry, both games this season. The Bulls are 24-10 SU this season at home with a +/- of 4.4PPG. Chicago will get starting center Vucevik back here and likely LaVine. Chicago has the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers in the league this season, the Cavs rank 19th. Given the scheduling circumstances we like the Bulls to get a 8 or more point win here.

#611 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kentucky -2.5 over Tennessee, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UK was hoping for this rematch in the SEC tourney and they got it. The Cats have won 11 of their last 13 games and one of those losses was @ Tennessee and it just happened to be Kentucky’s most lopsided loss of the season. They lost 76-63 and trailed by as many as 20 points late in the game. The Wildcats shot just 34% from the field, well below their season average of 49% which is 12th best in the country. They averaged just 0.94 PPP also way below their season average of 1.21 PPP (4th best in the nation). The Vols made 47% of their 3’s in that game which propelled them to the win. They need to make their 3’s to have a chance to win as UT is poor offensively inside the arc ranking 14th in the SEC in 2 point FG%. Kentucky is one of the best 3 point defensive teams in the nation – ranked 26th – so we don’t expect Tennessee to hit anywhere near 47% in today’s game. On the other end, Kentucky is the best 3 point shooting team in the SEC at 39% but made just 31% in their loss @ UT a few weeks ago. UK is the #1 offensive team in the league in efficiency, eFG%, 3 point %, and scoring. They are only a slight step behind Tennessee defensively. The Cats have the superior PPP differential in SEC play and they are the better team. Despite their recent loss to Tennessee, the Wildcats rolled UT in their first meeting 107-79. We’ll lay the small number with Kentucky.

#830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU -3.5 over Richmond, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - VCU has been the better team all season long and this is simply a poor match up for Richmond. The Rams won both games rolling at home by 20 points and winning on the road by 2. In their road game which they won by 2, Richmond took 7 more shots and 14 more FT’s and STILL lost at home which speaks to the Rams just being that much better. In the 2nd meeting when the attempts were more equal (VCU took 6 more shot and both attempted 18 FT’s) the Rams rolled to a huge win. VCU’s defense, which ranks 4th nationally in efficiency & 3rd in eFG% allowed, completely shut down Richmond’s offense holding them to 0.89 and 0.91 points per possession. The Spiders shot just 36% in the two meetings combined and made only 21% of their 3’s. That’s not an outlier as we mentioned VCU has a defense that is nearly 2nd to none nationally. VCU’s offense was successful vs a Richmond defense that ranks 9th in the A10 in efficiency and 11th in eFG% allowed. The Rams made 48% of their shots in the 2 meetings with Richmond. VCU led by 23 and 10 points in each of their games vs Richmond while the Spiders largest lead in either was 8 points and that was in the first half of one match up. IN the 2 meetings combined, the Spiders led for a grand total of 30 seconds in the 2nd half! Richmond beat Rhode Island yesterday but had to make a big 2nd half comeback to do so. They trailed by 15 in the 2nd half vs URI who ranks as the 8th best team (power rankings) in the A10. VCU gets another win and moves on in the A10 tourney.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -1.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - At first glance, why are the Warriors favored in this game? This number is a drastic swing from the Nuggets recently being an 8-point home favorite over the Warriors, but it’s warranted given these circumstances. Denver is coming off a game last night in Sacramento, playing their 3rd day and 4th in five days. The Nuggets are 5-7 on the season when playing without rest with a negative differential. Golden State just lost here in Denver 3 days ago, but they opted to sit all of their starters and were still competitive, losing by 7-points. The Warriors had lost 5 straight games but got a much-needed win against the Clippers on Tuesday. These two teams have near identical offensive numbers, but defensively the Warriors are much better. Golden State ranks top 5 defensively in points allowed FG% D, 3PT% D and rebounding. Golden State is playing with revenge and rested and the oddsmakers clearly are baiting you into backing Denver. We won’t bite!

#719 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State +5 over Ohio State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - PSU will slow this game to a crawl making the points more valuable in a projected low scoring game (total is currently 130). They are the better defensive team (50th nationally in efficiency to 122nd for OSU) and they rarely get blown out. Of PSU’s 16 losses, 10 have come by 7 points or less and only once since February 1st have they lost by more than 6 points. The Buckeyes are trending downward entering this tourney. They have lost 4 of their last 7 games and two of their wins during that stretch came in OT and by 3 points. Key reserve Kyle Young (3rd leading scorer) has been out the last 3 games due to concussion protocol and will miss this game today. Starting F Zed Key has an ankle injury and may not play today, if he does he is not at 100%. OSU is already in the Big Dance and this tourney might not be as important as simply getting healthy. Head coach Chris Holtmann said as much this week stating, “Obviously it’s important for us to get healthy.” These 2 met once this year in Columbus and PSU took the Buckeyes to the wire losing 61-56. PSU played that game without Seth Lundy, their 2nd leading scorer at 12 PPG. OSU made 24 FT’s in that win to just 8 for the Nittany Lions and it still went to the wire. We like the fact that Penn State played here last night beating Minnesota by 9 points. It gave them a feel for the venue (Pacers home court) and 2 games in 2 days is not necessarily a negative as some make it out to be. We actually view it as a positive (at times) when playing in an unfamiliar arena. 3 games in 3 days or 4 in 4 can become a negative but not 2 in 2 (most of the time). We give Penn State a solid shot at the upset here but have the +5 as a solid cushion.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - We will start with the obvious here and the fact the Bucks have been horrendous at home as a favorite this season with a 11-20 ATS record and a +/- of +5.3PPG in those games. Milwaukee is just 4-3 SU their last 7 at home and just can't get untracked at home. Scheduling clearly favors the Hawks with the Bucks coming off a game Tuesday night in OKC and they are just 3-8 ATS this season when playing without rest. Milwaukee is also playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and have a much bigger game on deck at Golden State. We like the Hawks who are rested and coming off an embarrassing loss to Detroit on Monday night as an 8-point favorite. Atlanta is 8th in offensive efficiency since the All-Star break, 17th in DEFF 1.150PPP which is drastically better than their season average of 27th allowing 1.146-points per possession. Since the break the Hawks have a +3.3 PPG differential. Atlanta is a matchup problem for the Bucks as they’ve beaten them twice this season already. Hawks 13-5 ATS their last eighteen meetings in Milwaukee

#648 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech -5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These two just met on Saturday @ Clemson and the Tigers pulled out a 63-59 win. The Hokies came into that game on a red hot run winning 9 of their previous 10 games. They played well below their offensive averages on Saturday putting up just 0.97 PPP (they average 1.13 PPP – 28th nationally) and shot just 37% for the game (they average 47% on the season). They are also one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the nation (4th hitting 39% of their triples) yet made just 30% in Saturday’s loss. Clemson pretty much hit their average with 1.04 PPP but weren’t able to pull away at home in a game that was tight throughout. The Tigers largest lead of the entire game was 6 points despite Tech’s poor offensive performance. Now we get a shot with the better team with quick revenge. Clemson is coming off a win yesterday over last place NC State (won by 6) but shot only 42% vs the worst defense in the ACC. Tonight the Tigers face a team that is better offensively, better defensively, and nearly beat them on the road despite playing poorly. We’ll lay this short number with Va Tech.

#651 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Joes -2 over LaSalle, Wednesday at 1 PM ET - These 2 have the same conference record at 5-13 but St Joes is the better team (Ken Pom ranked 157th to 231st for LaSalle) and they should have some extra motivation here vs their Philly rival. These 2 met twice this year, St Joes was favored in both and lost both. The Hawks blew big leads in both games leading by 15 & 14 points. Their most recent meeting was @ LaSalle one week ago today and the host overcame that big deficit to pull out a 49-48 win. St Joes (-1) led that road game by 12 at half and scored only 12 points the entire 2nd half. They shot 27% overall and 29% from beyond the arc and STILL almost won the game on the road. LaSalle led the game for a grand total of 2 minutes! St Joes is the much better defensive team ranking 3rd in the A10 in eFG% allowed (LaSalle ranks 12th) and they are the better shooting team both inside and outside the arc and they have the better PPP differential in league play. The Hawks get more points from 3 point range than any other team in the conference and they are facing a LaSalle defense that ranks 318th nationally defending the arc. We like St Joes to improve drastically on their 29% three point effort from last week and pick up a nice win here. The favorite is 19-9-2 ATS the last 30 meetings between these 2 heated rivals. Lay it with St Joes.

ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:10 PM ET - The Pistons have looked like a completely different team since the trade deadline which has led to a 5-2 SU record in their last seven games as they gun for their 3rd straight win tonight. The Pistons wins have been solid too as they’ve beaten the Raptors, Hornets, Cavs and Celtics in that stretch. Detroit continues to be under-valued by the oddsmakers and it shows in their ATS streak which now stands at 7 covers in a row. The Hawks are making a playoff push themselves and have also won 5 of their last seven and two in a row but this isn’t a great spot for them, off a win and facing the Bucks next. In their last five games the Pistons have shown a dramatic improvement in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers and they have an average +/- of -0.8PPG. The Hawks average +/- in their last five games is +4.6PPG which clearly doesn’t get a cover in this match up. Atlanta is 12-19 SU on the road this season with an average MOV of minus -2.2PPG. The Hawks may get a win here but it’s going to be close. Grab the dog and points.

#879 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State +1 over Cleveland State, Monday at 7 PM ET - The better team is getting points here. As of this writing Wright State is +1 and we’ll gladly grab the points. Cleveland State topped Wright State by a half game to win the Horizon, however we don’t like the way they are playing right now. The Vikings were 10-1 and had a huge lead in league play before going just 5-5 down the stretch (6-5 if you include their win in the Horizon tourney). Their wins during that 11 game stretch (since late January) have come against IUPUI, Milwaukee (twice), Green Bay (twice), and Robert Morris, the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. They lost to every team they faced ranked 8th or higher in the conference during that 11 game stretch. If we look at the Horizon League season as a whole, if we subtract the bottom 4 teams, CSU has a PPG differential of just +1.6 vs the top 8. Wright State is +6.2 PPG vs the top 8 teams in the conference. The Raiders have a better PPP margin in league play, a better overall PPG margin, and they are the #1 offense (efficiency) in the Horizon averaging 1.13 PPP. Wright State comes in having won 8 of their last 11 games with their 3 losses coming by 3, 4, and 5 points. They rank 1st in the conference in rebound margin and if this game is tight as the line suggests, WSU hits 76% of the FT’s on the season and CSU makes just 67%. Wright State lost both games vs Cleveland State this season but those games were in early December and in January. The Raiders are playing their best BB right now and we have them power rated as a favorite in this one. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS -4.5 over NY Knicks, 10 PM ET - Remember when the Knicks started the season off with one of the best offenses in the NBA? Yeah, that was through the first few weeks of the season and was short lived. New York is the 27th lowest scoring team in the league, 27th in FG% at 43.4% and 16th in 3-point%. The Knicks are 25th in overall offensive efficiency at 1.089-points per possession and have a net differential on the road of minus -2.8PPG. The Knicks have lost 7 straight games and have a 3-13 SU record their last sixteen games. The Clippers are gaining traction in the West with 5 straight wins and 7 of their last eight overall. At home the Clippers have been especially tough with a 7-1 SU record their last eight and the lone loss came against the defending Champions, Milwaukee Bucks. Since the All-Star break the Clippers have the 3rd best overall defensive efficiency rating and a +/- of +9.5PPG. We like the Clippers to get a double-digit win in this one.

ASA play on 8* Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives and each has struggled in recent outings as the Cavs have lost 3-straight, Toronto 2 in a row. The difference though is that the Raptors lost to Orlando and Detroit at home who are two of the worst teams in the NBA. Cleveland on the other hand has three losses to Philadelphia, Charlotte and Minnesota who are all significantly better than the Pistons and Magic. The Cavs had some health issues with their two All-Stars as Garland and Allen both missed time after the break and the team struggled. Both played against Philly and made huge contributions, and both are expected to be in the lineup today. Toronto has struggled without two starters in their lineup as Van Vleet and Anunoby have both missed time. On the season the Raptors have the 13th best offensive efficiency numbers but in their last five games they’ve dipped to 21st. The Cavaliers are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the season and will provide a stiff challenge for the depleted Raptors offense. Cleveland is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings with the Raptors and have a great shot at covering this number considering they have a +/- at home of +5.4PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. Lay it!

#832 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chattanooga -1.5 over Wofford, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Chattanooga was the better team all season long and on top of that they match up very well with Wofford. The Mocs won both regular season match ups by 11 and 8 points holding Wofford to 0.97 PPP in both of those meetings. UTC’s defense is the best in the Southern Conference ranking 1st in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point % allowed. The last stat on that list is the key here as Wofford relies very heavily on the 3 point shot, as much as nearly any team in the country. That makes it tough vs Chattanooga who allows just 30% from deep which was the Terriers problem in the first 2 meetings hitting just 27% in those 2 games combined from deep. If Wofford isn’t successful from beyond the arc, they can’t win this game. They were just 3-5 SU vs the top 4 three point defensive teams in the Southern Conference (Furman, Chattanooga, ETSU, and Mercer). UTC, on the other hand, likes to score inside the arc. While they can shoot the 3 (hit 35% from deep) over 50% of their points come from inside the arc (2nd in the conference). Wofford is 295th nationally at defending inside the 3 point line and hit 54% and 52% of their 2 point shots in their games vs the Terriers this season. UTC is built to win in the tournament. They have 2 outstanding Senior guards, who will be the 2 best players on the court in this game in our opinion, and a big man (DeSousa) who transferred from Kansas and can cause problems inside. DeSousa missed 7 games this season (including one of the meetings vs Wofford) and when at full strength, Chattanooga is the best team in the conference. We have this number at -3 so we like the value with UTC. Lay it.

#807 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +14 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 2 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Badgers. They are off a physically and emotionally demanding game earlier this week here vs Purdue. The atmosphere was insane. We were courtside to witness the game and the court storming celebration afterwards. Wisconsin clinched the Big 10 Title with their 70-67 win over Purdue. They have at least a share of the title and if they win here they will win it outright. Even with that, going from playing Purdue to a Sunday afternoon affair with the last place team in the league and an atmosphere that will be nowhere close, we anticipate a letdown. While the Badgers are Big 10 Champs, they win close games and rarely roll over anyone. They have NOT won a game in the Big 10 this year by more than 14 points which is where this spread sits as we write this. When they faced the Huskers earlier this year UW won by 8 points in a game the Badgers shot an uncharacteristic 46% from beyond the arc (they average 31% in Big 10 play - dead last in the conference). The Huskers were in the midst of a 10 game losing streak during their first meeting but they are now playing, by far, their best basketball of the year. The offense is humming right now for this Nebraska team. They are off back to back road wins @ Penn State (won by 23) and @ Ohio State (won by 8). Prior to that they had a red hot Iowa team (who has won 8 of their last 9) on the ropes before falling by 10. In their last 2 games this offense put up 1.35 PPP vs a PSU defense that allows 0.97 PPP on the season & 1.24 PPP vs an Ohio State defense that allows 1.00 PPP on the year. We don't see Wisconsin being able to pull away here the way NU is playing offensively. The Badgers should win this one but not in blowout fashion. They are just 1-4 ATS this season as double digit favorites. Take the points.

#720 ASA PLAY ON 8* Weber State -4.5 over Southern Utah, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The winner of this game clinches at least a share of 2nd place in the Big Sky conference. Both teams come in with a 13-6 league record but Weber has been the better team and they are in the much better situation. Weber State has had a full week off since destroying Northern Arizona on the road last Saturday 73-49. While the Wildcats are rested and have had plenty of time to prepare for this home game, SUU will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days having played @ Montana State on Tuesday, @ Idaho State on Thursday and now @ Weber State tonight. The Wildcats lead the Big Sky in points per possession differential at +10.6 and they are 2nd in PPG differential only behind 1st place Montana State. They have the 3rd most efficient offense in the Big Sky and the 1st most efficient defense. Southern Utah has shown they can beat the teams they are supposed to but when stepping up and facing the top teams in the conference they have fallen flat. The top 4 teams in the conference are Montana State, Weber State, Northern Colorado and Southern Utah. SUU is 0-5 SU vs those opponents (Weber is 3-2) and they’ve lost those game by an average of almost 10 PPG. The Thunderbirds are 1-6 ATS this year as an underdog which goes along with not stepping up vs good teams. Weber has beaten SUU here at home 19 of the last 22 meetings and they pick up a win and cover on Saturday night.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +7.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 5:10 PM ET - This is a great opportunity to sell the Mavericks when their stocks are high and buy the Kings when they are low. The Mavs enter this game having won 9 of their last eleven games which has driven this number higher than it should be. Not to mention, the Mavericks are coming off a huge 3-game winning stretch against the Warriors (twice) and the Lakers. The last loss on the Mavs schedule was against the Utah Jazz who coincidentally is next on their schedule. You can’t blame Dallas for looking ahead to that game as the Jazz currently sit 4th in the West, one spot ahead of Dallas who is 5th. The Kings have alternated wins in their last four games and are coming off a solid road win in San Antonio last time out. It's a well-known fact the Kings aren’t good defensively but can the Mavs 25th ranked scoring offense take advantage and cover a number as high as this? When laying more than 5-points this season the Mavericks are 7-11 ATS which ties into their record as a home favorite the past two seasons of 10-17 ATS. Dallas is 21-11 SU at home on the year with an average MOV of +5.2PPG which won’t get it done here. The Kings have covered 7 of the last nine meetings in Dallas and 22 of the last thirty-one meetings overall. Given the situation and the price we like the Kings here.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona State -5.5 over Stanford, Saturday at 3 PM ET - ASU is playing as well as nearly anyone in the Pac 12 right now. After starting the season with a 3-9 conference record, the Devils have now won 6 of their last 7 with their only loss coming @ UCLA. Their defense has been fantastic during this 7 game stretch holding their opponents to just 57 PPG. They rank 2nd in the conference in eFG% defense and 1st in 3 point % defense. That’s a big problem for a Stanford offense that averages just 61 PPG on the road this season and ranks 10th in the Pac 12 in offensive efficiency. The Cardinal have been held to 60 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games and we highly doubt they get out of the 50’s in this match up. ASU also has been very good at creating turnovers (almost 20% rate) which should give them plenty of extra opportunities here vs a Stanford offense that turns the ball over 22% of the time (last in the Pac 12). In their 71-44 win here vs Cal on Thursday, the Sun Devils outscored the Bears 16-2 off turnovers and Cal is much better at protecting the ball then Stanford is. The Cardinal are in a tough scheduling spot here as well playing their 3rd straight road game in the span of 8 days. While ASU is peaking, Stanford is heading the opposite direction losing 6 of their last 7 games with their only win coming vs Oregon State, the worst team in the conference. In their first meeting this year, Stanford topped ASU 79-76 shooting 47% from beyond the arc (ASU shot 28%) and made 32 FT’s to just 7 for the Sun Devils. Despite those huge differentials, the game went to the wire. ASU was actually called for a foul on a Stanford 3 point shot with 1 second remaining and the game tied at 76-76. And that’s when Arizona State was playing poorly in the middle of a stretch where they lost 9 of 11 games. We like the Devils to roll in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - This is a big game in the Eastern Conference as the Bulls currently sit 3rd overall at 39-24, the Bucks rank 4th at 38-25. The Bulls are clearly the more desperate team here having lost 3 straight games. Chicago had won 6 straight games prior to that and the three losses came to Memphis, Miami and Atlanta so it’s not like they were lower level teams. The value in the line clearly sides with the Bulls considering they were just +5 AT Miami the other day and even +2.5 at home against a red-hot Memphis team who is 26-7 their last 33 games. Milwaukee is coming off a big win at home against the Heat and may let down here. The Bucks were down in the 4th quarter of that game and rallied from behind for the last second win. The Bucks defense has slipped this season ranking 16th in points allowed per game and 12th in 3-point% defense. The Bulls can take advantage with the 8th highest scoring offense in the league and the best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA. The Bulls are 14-9 ATS off a loss this season with a +2.4PPG differential. Milwaukee is 3-10 ATS their last 13 when coming off a win.

#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -10.5 over TCU, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These two just met on Tuesday and TCU pulled the upset beating Kansas 74-64 as a 6.5 point dog. It was KU’s 2nd straight loss after getting beat @ Baylor on Saturday. Coming off 2 losses and in a quick revenge spot, we expect Kansas to play very well at home tonight. The Jayhawks shot very poorly on Tuesday hitting only 37% of their shots and averaging just 1.02 points per possession. That’s way below their season averages of 49% (12th nationally) and 1.20 PPP (4th nationally). Crazy as it may sound, TCU is probably in a bit of a letdown spot here. Not only did they beat KU at home on Tuesday they also knocked off Texas Tech at home on Saturday. They went into their final home stand of the season with the goal of knocking off the 2 highly ranked opponents to lock themselves in to an NCAA tourney bid. They did just that and the Frogs now venture out on the road where they’ve lost 3 straight games by margins of 9, 10, and 13 points. They turned the ball over a season low 8 times vs Kansas which was very uncharacteristic of a team that ranks below 300 in TO rate coughing it up on over 23% of their possessions – last in the Big 12. They also dominated the boards (+12) and while they are a very good rebounding team, KU is solid on the glass as well. This will be a very tough turnaround in a venue (Allen Fieldhouse) where the Frogs have lost 10 straight. TCU struggles offensively at times (247th nationally in scoring) and that will be a problem here vs a fired up KU offense that averages 82 PPG off one of their worst performances of the season on Tuesday vs this team. A win here for Kansas puts them back in first place in the Big 12 tied with Baylor. Lay it.

#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON UNLV -1.5 over Wyoming, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Love this spot for UNLV. They are playing their best basketball of the season but coming off a home loss on Saturday vs Boise State, the highest rated and 1st place team in the Mountain West. While the Rebels last played on Saturday, Wyoming beat Nevada at home on Saturday, lost to San Diego State at home on Monday and now travel to UNLV for their 3rd game in 5 days. Coming off an always physical game vs the defensive minded Aztecs is always tough especially when having to play on the road just 48 hours later. This is UNLV’s final home game so it will be significant for the 4 Seniors who are in the starting line up. The Rebs have won 3 of their last 4 games including a 21 point win over Colorado State who ranks 20+ spots higher than Wyoming in our power rankings. They have won 4 of their last 5 home games with their only loss coming vs Boise which we discussed above. The Cowboys are solid offensively but their numbers on the road slip fairly drastically. They average 81 PPG at home and that number drops to 68 PPG on the road. UNLV’s defense ranks 2nd in the MWC in eFG% allowed and 1st in 3 point % allowed. They are allowing opponents to score just 61 PPG on just 37% shooting at the Thomas & Mack Center. After winning 21 of their first 24 games, Wyoming is now trending in the wrong direction losing 3 of their last 5. Their only wins during that stretch were at home vs Air Force (10th rated team out of 11 in the MWC) and Nevada who is reeling losing 8 of their last 11. There is a reason the 17-12 team is favored over the 24-6 team in this one. We like UNLV.

#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Vanderbilt pick-em over Florida, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - Vandy is playing their home finale here and they’ll have some extra motivation to knock off Florida after they played perhaps their worst game of the season earlier this year in Gainesville losing 61-42. To say the Commodores played poorly on offense would be an understatement. They made only 29% of their shots, just 17% from deep and only 52% from the FT line. They averaged only 0.72 PPP in that loss which is WAY down from their season average of 1.06 PPP. It was a 3 point game at halftime and Vandy went on to make THREE field goals the entire 2nd half scoring just 14 points. Vandy star forward Scotty Pippen, who will be the best player on the court tonight, played only 20 minutes in that loss due to fou trouble and scored a season low 6 points. Needless to say they’ve been waiting for this rematch. Florida has underachieved all season long, especially on the road where they are just 3-6 SU on the season. Their 3 road wins on the season came vs Georgia, Mizzou, and South Carolina, 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC. The Gators have a -5 PPG margin on the road and shoot only 28% from beyond the arc. That’s a big problem tonight as Florida relies more on scoring from 3-point range than any other team in the SEC and Vanderbilt’s defense ranks 2nd in the league defending the arc allowing just 28% in conference play. Despite losing 4 of their last 5, we like the way Vandy is playing right now. Two of those losses were on the road vs Tennessee and Auburn, two of the top teams in the country, and both were competitive. Their other 2 losses during that stretch were at home by 2 points vs Alabama (better team than Florida) and by 5 points @ Miss State (better team than Florida). The Commodores continue to be undervalued covering 8 straight games and we have them as a favorite in this game. Take the host to win tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors pick’em over Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - Much like our win last night on the Bucks, the Warriors fall into a similar situation here against the Wolves. Golden State is off a horrible loss the other night (we had them), when they gave up a 19-point lead in the 4th quarter and lost to the Mavs. The Warriors have a day of rest off that terrible loss while the Wolves are coming off a game last night in Cleveland. So not only is the 2nd night of a back-to-back but their 4th game in six days. That’s significant considering the Wolves are 3-7 SU this season when playing without rest with an average loss margin of -7PPG and they’ve failed to cover 5-straight. These two teams have some similar numbers offensively, but the Warriors are far superior on the season defensively ranking 1st in defensive efficiency while the Wolves rank 17th. Golden State has the 8th best average margin of victory on the road this season and a 17-11 SU record. Expect a bounce back in this one.

#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -12 over Kansas State, Monday at 9 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for one of the best teams in the country. Tech is playing their final home game which will be big as they start 4 Seniors. They are also coming off a disappointing 69-66 loss @ TCU on Saturday. The Red Raiders played a poor game yet still led most of the way. KSU’s first lead of the 2nd half came with just 2:00 minutes remaining. Tech committed a season high 20 turnovers and allowed TCU, who averages 0.96 PPP in conference play, to put up 1.05 PPP. TT’s defense ranks 2nd nationally allowing only 0.86 PPP so you can see that TCU’s offense played well above their heads in that game that still went to the wire. Expect a very good defensive effort from the Raiders tonight at home. KSU has hit the skids losing 3 straight games and their defense has been poor allowing 102, 82, and 74 points in those 3 losses. They now rank 9th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. We look for Tech’s offense to play very well vs the Cats struggling defense while looking for their defense to really slow down Kansas State. Another added incentive is the fact that Texas Tech lost at KSU earlier this year. It was perhaps their worst game of the Big 12 season. The Raiders averaged a terrible 0.77 PPP in that game which was their 3rd lowest mark of the entire season. They were also outrebounded by a Kansas State team they should destroy on the boards which we expect they will tonight. Texas Tech is 17-0 at home this year winning by an average score of 80-58. They are 17-4 ATS their last 21 games as a home favorite and a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a loss. This one could get ugly.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -10.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 PM ET - This is a solid spot to back an elite team like the Bucks off a home loss, playing at home and play against a Hornets team off an OT road game yesterday. Last time out the Bucks lost a big game at home to the Nets as a -9.5-point favorite. Milwaukee is 10-6 SU off a loss, playing at home this year, 8-8 ATS. Going back to 2018 there is no team better in the NBA when coming off a loss that the Bucks who have a 70-34 SU record. In general, the Bucks are 123-36 SU at home their last 159 at home with a +10PPG average. The Hornets played a fast-paced over-time game yesterday in Detroit and haven’t fared well in recent years when playing without rest with a 16-37 SU record. Lastly, these two teams met they played a back-to-back set of games in Charlotte with the Hornets winning both which will provide a little extra incentive for Milwaukee here. The big difference between these two teams is defense. The Bucks have been one of the best defensive units in the NBA in recent years and currently rank 13th in defensive efficiency. The Hornets are 22nd in DEFF overall, 24th on the road and are 28th in points allowed per game which makes it that much easier for a double-digit favorite to cover a big number.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Warriors in their first game after the All-Star break for several reasons and we feel this team is poised to make a serious run at the top spot in the West. Golden State shot 51% as a team and held the Blazers to just 39% in their 132-95 blowout win the other night. Dallas is off a loss at Utah as a +6.5-point underdog on Friday night and we don’t feel the adjustment by the oddsmakers is warranted here. These two teams are somewhat similar defensively with the Warriors holding a slight edge but offensively it’s close. Golden State is 10th in points per game, 6th in FG% and 6th in 3-point percentage. Dallas on the other hand is 20th or worse in those same categories. Golden State has the best home court differential in the NBA this season at +11.8PPG and they beat the Mavs here handily earlier this season 130-92. Golden State lost their most recent home game so expect a focused effort in this one and a double-digit win.

#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -10.5 over Nebraska, Sunday at 7 PM ET - PSU playing solid basketball right now winning 3 of their last 4 games including 3 straight at home. This will be their home finale so they will bring everything they’ve got on Sunday night. Nebraska, on the other hand, could be a bit flat. They gave Iowa a decent run at home on Friday night before losing by 10 and now 48 hours later they are on the road where they are 0-8 on the season. The Huskers home loss on Friday also guaranteed they will finish in last place in the Big 10. In their road games this year, the Nebraska defense has been non-existent allowing 87 PPG losing by an average margin of 16 PPG. Speaking of defense, they rank dead last in the Big 10 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point % allowed, and 13th in 3 point % allowed. Tough to win, or play close, on the road when your defensive numbers look like that. Penn State’s defense, on the other hand, has been outstanding allowing opponents to hit only 41% of their shots on the season. At home they have played 8 conference games winning 6. Their only losses here have come by 1 point vs Michigan and vs Purdue. The Nittany Lion defense has held 6 of their 8 opponents at home to 60 points or less. Nebraska has played 6 Big 10 road games (lost all 6) and 5 of those games were double digit losses. PSU gets the win and cover at home.

#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -2 over Colorado State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This line speaks volumes in our opinion. Looks to good to be true if you like Colorado State in this one. The team who sits at 22-4 and 12-4 in the Mountain West is an underdog to the team whose record is 16-13 overall and just 7-9 in conference play. There is a reason USU is favored here. They are better than their overall record. CSU has a great offense ranking 19th nationally in efficiency. Utah State is right there with the Rams ranking 35th nationally in offensive efficiency. USU is the better defense allowing 0.98 PPP in MWC play while Colorado State allows 1.01. Despite their record disparity, Utah State actually has a better points per possession differential in conference play at +6.4 to CSU’s +6.1. The Aggies played a few key conference games without starting guards Jones & Rock-Lytle losing to Wyoming, Boise State, and Fresno State when one or both were out. They are back and full strength. USU returned a key reserve as Brock Miller vs New Mexico on Tuesday after he missed all games since early January. In their first meeting in mid January the Aggies took CSU to the wire on the road losing 77-72. They made just 4 three pointers in that game with CSU making 10 which was the difference in a tight game. We look for them to shoot much better in their home finale – 48% overall and 35% from 3 at home – on Senior night. Utah State gets the win here.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -8.5 over Sacramento Kings, 9:10 PM ET - These same two teams just met in Sacramento the other night with the Nuggets winning by 18-points. You would think that makes this a revenge spot but we can’t ignore the value in the number and will side with Denver. The Nuggets were just a 4-point road favorite at Sacramento and are now laying just a few more points at home. Denver was covering this game the entire 4th quarter and had a remarkable shooting night. The Nuggets shot 56% from the field and 43% from beyond the arc, which is abnormally high, but what’s to say they can’t repeat that performance? Sacramento is 29th in scoring defense allowing 115.1PPG, 29th in overall field goal percentage defense and 26th in defending the 3-point line. That’s a bad matchup against a Nuggets team that is 13th in scoring, 3rd in FG% and 11th in 3-point percentage. Denver has the 10th best average margin of victory at home at +4.9PPG. Sacramento has the 27th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -8.5PPG. Bet the value, bet Denver.

#660 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Tennessee -3.5 over Auburn, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Auburn is simply a different team away from home as many college teams are. While they do have a 7-2 road record, losing @ Florida and @ Arkansas, they’ve gone to the wire with a number of lower tier teams in the SEC. That includes barely getting by the 2 lowest rated teams in the conference on the road topping Georgia by 2 and Missouri by 1. They have shot just 41% overall and 28% from 3 point land in their 9 road games this season. That’ll be a problem on Saturday vs a Tennessee defense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency allowing just 0.88 PPP on the season. The Tigers have also come back down to earth a bit after winning 19 straight games from late November through early February. They are just 3-2 SU their last 5 games with all 3 wins coming vs team ranked in the bottom 5 in the SEC. Tennessee will be the highest rated team Auburn has faced on the road this year and 2nd highest rated overall only behind Kentucky. The Vols are playing very well right now winning 9 of their last 11 games with their only losses coming @ Texas and @ Arkansas. They are a perfect 14-0 at home this season including a 13 point win over Kentucky (the top rated team in the SEC) and a 4 point win over Arizona (#2 in the country right now per Ken Pom). Going back to the start of last season the Vols are 27-3 SU at home. This season they are holding their opponents to just 59 PPG here at home while winning by an average of 20 PPG. Just a huge home game for Tennessee sitting 2 games behind Auburn and 1 game behind Kentucky in the SEC standings.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -9 over Portland Trailblazers, 10 PM ET - The Warriors limped into the All-Star break with losses in 4 of five games, including their most recent 2 games against the Clippers and Nuggets. Portland on the other hand won 4 straight games with quality wins over the Lakers, Bucks and Memphis. The Blazers though were dealt another injury blow as starting center Nurkic (scored 32-points last game) is out for this game which leaves a short-handed Blazer team even more depleted. Portland used to be fantastic at home with a 76-44 SU home record between 2018-2021 but are just 16-16 SU this season with a negative differential of minus -0.8PPG. Golden State struggles can be directly attributed to some poor shooting by Steph Curry who found his stroke in the All-Star game, scoring 50-points. We expect that momentum to carry over here. The Warriors are 4-0 this year when playing on 4 or more days rest with a +12PPG differential. They have beaten the Blazers by double-digits twice already so a third doesn’t seem to be asking too much. Lay the points.

#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit +1.5 over Cleveland State, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We jumped on Detroit at home on Sunday vs a red hot Wright State team and picked up a win. The Titans won by 5 points but led by 26 points with just over 12:00 remaining and pretty much dominated a game that Wright State never led. That win moved them to 9-6 in conference play which is quite an accomplishment since 11 of their 15 games have been on the road! Even worse, they played 25 total games this season and only 7 have come at home. They are a perfect 7-0 at home on the season and they’ve won 14 straight as a host dating back to last season. After a 5 game road trip between Feb 4 and Feb 13, Detroit has now played their last 2 games at home, both wins over Northern KY and Wright State, the 3rd and 4th place teams in the Horizon. Cleveland State could be a bit flat here as the clinched the #1 seed in the post-season tourney and conference title @ UWGB on Sunday. In the first meeting back in mid January CSU barely held on for a 2-point win over Detroit at home. The Titans, who are 2nd in the Horizon making 36% of their 3’s, made only 4 of 21 from deep (19%) in that game yet still had a shot to win on the road. Now the Titans are at home where they hit 45% of their 3’s and average 82 PPG with an average winning margin of +18 PPG. We like Detroit to keep their winning ways in tact at home tonight.

#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Alabama -3 over Texas State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - The 5th place team in the Sun Belt is a 3 point favorite over the 1st place team in the league in this game. That may seem surprising but we have USA rated higher overall and so does Ken Pom. This line says that these teams are basically even on a neutral court and we don’t agree. South Alabama is the better team, especially at home where they are 12-1 SU on the season with their average PPG margin of +20. They allow just 58 PPG at home this season and Texas State has struggled offensively on the road putting up only 65 PPG. We also get the Jaguars off a loss @ Appalachian State on Saturday. Texas State comes in having won 7 straight games yet the oddsmakers still have them as underdogs. The Bobcats have played the easiest schedule in the Sun Belt and 5 of their 7 most recent wins have come vs teams ranked in the bottom 5 in the league. Texas State is just 5-5 on the road with a PPG differential of -4. If you subtract their 2 road games vs teams ranked below 300, the Bobcats are 3-5 on the road with 4 of the 5 losses coming by double digits. These 2 did not meet last year but the home team has covered 6 of the last 7 meetings. Texas State has played 5 of their last 7 games at home and now they face the highest rated team they’ve played on the road this season on conference play. We like South Alabama to win and cover here.

#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Nevada -2.5 over UNLV, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - The Rebels are officially overvalued here having covered 6 of their last 7 games. They are coming off 2 huge wins over Fresno and CSU. UNLV was a 5 point home underdog in their game Saturday vs Colorado St (they won by 21) and now they are just a short underdog @ Nevada. This line opened pick-em and immediately moved in Nevada’s favor and we agree with that move. We have Nevada as a 3.5 point favorite so still some value on the host. From January 25 – February 8, the Wolfpack went on a 6 game losing streak and 5 of those losses came at the hands of San Diego State, Colorado State (twice), Fresno State, and Utah State – 4 of the 5 highest rated teams in the league. The other loss during that stretch was @ UNLV by the final score of 69-58. Nevada’s offense was outright bad in that game averaging only 0.88 PPP which was their 2nd worst offensive performance in Mountain West play this season. Part of the problem was their best offensive player, Grant Sherfield (19 PPG, 6 APG, and 4 RPG), was out. He actually missed 3 of Nevada’s 6 games during their losing streak which minimizes those results. Since he's come back from injury, the Pack have a 3-1 SU record and they’ve averaged at least 1.15 PPP in each of their 3 wins. UNLV is just 3-6 SU in true road games this year with a PPG margin of -6 in those contests. Since the start of the 2015 season, these 2 rivals have met 7 times on Nevada’s home court and the Wolfpack have won 6 of those games. We’ll lay the small number here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Panthers Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Nashville Predators, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Florida is an incredible 23-3 on home ice this season.  The Panthers are a huge money line favorite here because of their home dominance as well as the fact that the Predators are slumping badly.  We can take advantage of this situation by utilizing the puck line and not having to lay any price to have Florida at -1.5 goals.  The Panthers have won 17 of 21 games since late December and scoring at an incredible rate of 4.8 goals per game during this red hot stretch!  Compare this to the slumping Predators.  Nashville has lost 4 straight and 9 of 13 games.  Also, the Predators have lost 5 of last 6 road games and we just do not expect the Preds to be able to score enough to keep up with the most dynamic offense in the league!  Nashville has scored only 2.2 goals per game during their current 4-game losing streak.  Florida, on the other hand, has scored 4 or more goals in regulation time in 15 of the last 21 games.  Home team in a blowout per our computer math model.  Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Florida is the value play here.

#615 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State +6.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for MSU. A definite buy low, sell high situation. The Spartans have lost 4 of their last 5 games including 2 in a row @ Penn State and at home vs Illinois. Iowa has won 4 of their last 5 including a big road upset on Saturday @ Ohio State. The Hawkeyes were +5.5 in that game @ OSU and now they are laying 6 or 6.5 at home vs Michigan State. We have OSU & MSU rated only a few spots apart in our power ratings so this is a big adjustment in our opinion. For comparison’s sake let’s take a look at some MSU road lines along with a few Iowa home lines. MSU was +3 @ Wisconsin (and won outright), +2 @ Illinois (and lost by 1), and favored in every other Big 10 road game. Iowa at home was an underdog vs Purdue (and lost), favored by 5 vs Michigan (and lost), and favored by 4.5 vs Indiana. The 3 highest rated teams Iowa has played at home (Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan) all beat them on their own court. This line is set too high based on recent results. Sparty has proven they can get it done on the road with a 5-3 SU record including 2-0 ATS as an underdog. Iowa has a grand total of ONE win this year vs a team ranked inside Ken Pom’s top 45 and that was Saturday vs Ohio State. They are 1-6 SU overall vs top 45 games and Michigan State sits at #27. MSU is the much better defensive team in this one and the Hawkeyes have had problems with teams that are strong on the offensive glass which the Spartans are. Michigan State is also won of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation (9th) and they make 80% of their FT’s in conference play. We think this one will be tight and we’ll take the generous points.

#820 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit +1.5 over Wright State, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The fact that Detroit has a record above .500 in the Horizon is amazing. They are 8-6 in conference play and have played 11 of those 14 games on the road! You read that correctly. They’ve only played 3 home games in Horizon League play. Even worse, they played 24 total games this season and only 6 have come at home. They are a perfect 6-0 at home on the season. They beat Northern Kentucky here at home on Friday night and they close out the season with 3 more at home including today’s game vs Wright State. The Raiders are coming off a huge road upset on Friday night knocking off 2nd place Oakland 78-74. Now on the road for an early afternoon game means from the time their Friday night game tipped off to the start of this game is just 39 hours. That’s a tough turnaround for Wright State to come back to earth and get ready for another solid opponent after a big road win. The Raiders already have 3 conference road losses to teams ranked lower in Ken Pom than this Detroit team. The Titans have been waiting for this rematch as well after getting blasted 90-59 @ Wright State in early February. It was by far their worst performance of the season and they are set to atone for that today at home. WSU was favored by 4 in that game at home and now they are favored in this one on the road. Almost no adjustment in the line which is a mistake. We have Detroit as a small favorite in this game. The Titans shot terribly in the first match up including just 27% from 3 and on the season they are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the Horizon. Wright State struggles to defend the arc ranking 8th in the league to those results from game 1 were not the norm. Detroit is undervalued due to their overall record which is the result of a brutally tough schedule. The catch Wright in an overconfident spot here as a road favorite. Take Detroit to win at home.

#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas -3 over Tennessee, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Tough spot for Tennessee coming off their big revenge win at home over Kentucky on Tuesday. It was a game the Vols had circled after getting blasted by the Wildcats 107-79 in their first meeting this season. Now they have to go on the road to play a red hot Arkansas team who will have this game circled getting a chance to knock off a highly rated team. The Razors have already proven they can do just that as they beat Auburn here 11 days ago giving the Tigers their only SEC loss and just their 2nd loss of the entire season. Arkansas has won 10 of their last 11 games to move into 3rd place in the SEC, one game behind Tennessee. Their only loss during that 11 game stretch was @ Alabama by 1 point. The Vols are 3-3 on the road in conference play with all 3 of those wins coming vs teams that all currently have losing records in SEC play (Vandy, South Carolina, and Miss St). They’ve faced 3 top half of the conference teams on the road and lost all 3 vs Kentucky, LSU, and Alabama. The Vols have averaged just 69 PPG on the road and they are taking on an Arkansas team that put up 82 PPG at home and limits their opponents to just 65 PPG. Their defense ranks #1 in the SEC (conference games) in defensive efficiency and they are allowing opponents to hit only 29% of their 3’s which will be key vs a UT team that shoots a lot of them. The Razorbacks have been nearly unbeatable at home winning 32 of their las 34 games here at Bud Walton Arena and the last time UT won here was way back in 2009. We don’t get Arkansas at home as a low favorite like this very often and we’re going to take advantage of it. The Razors lost most recent meeting between these teams last January but that one was at Tennessee. Now they avenge that loss as they catch the Vols off the huge revenge win versus Kentucky. Great set up here and value with the home team and we take advantage of it.

#865 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Butler +8.5 over St Johns, Friday at 5 PM ET - These 2 played just 2 weeks ago and St Johns squeaked out a 75-72 win. The 3 point margin of victory was the Johnnies largest lead of the game and their first lead of the 2nd half came with just 4 minutes remaining in the game. STJ attempted 25 FT’s in the game (made 21) while Butler attempted just 5 FT’s (made 4) and yet still led for the majority of the 2nd half. We don’t expect that to happen again as ST John’s fouls more than any other team in the Big East. The Johnnies are also the worst FT shooting team in the conference hitting only 64% on the season yet made 84% in the first meeting. Butler is playing their best basketball of the season right now. After starting the Big East with a 2-6 record, the Bulldogs have now won 4 of their last 7 games and their 3 losses have come by a combined 7 points. Two of Butler’s top players, Nze and Hodges, missed their game @ DePaul on Tuesday and they still knocked off the Demons on the road. Both players are listed as game time decisions on Friday and we’ll keep a very close eye on that. If they both play, Butler can absolutely pull this upset. St John’s has already lost 5 home games this year including 4 in conference play. This has been a close series with 4 of the last 6 meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points or less or in OT. Take the points here.

#774 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Robert Morris -14.5 over IUPUI, Thursday at 7 PM ET - IUPUI has 2 wins on the season vs Spalding and East West. No we didn’t make those up. They are 0-22 SU vs Division 1 teams and 0-13 in Horizon League play with 10 of those 13 losses coming by at least 30 points. Their offense is the worst in college basketball averaging just 51 PPG on the season. If you throw out their games vs the 2 non Division 1 opponents, IUPUI has reached 60 points ONE TIME in 22 games. They rank dead last in the country (358th) in offensive efficiency, 356th in eFG%, and 358th in turnover percentage coughing up the ball over 26% of the time! Laying big points vs this team isn’t as risky as most since they can’t score points and their possessions are limited due to their heavy TO rate. Robert Morris started the conference season losing 7 straight games but they have improved drastically going 5-5 since that poor start. They faced this IUPUI team on the road earlier this month and won by 17. The Colonials average 72 PPG at home which should be more than enough vs this inept IUPUI offense that doesn’t even average 50 PPG on the road (49 PPG). Not only are the Jaguars bad, they’ve gone through massive attrition this year. They are down to 6 scholarship players and that’s it. They have played no more than 6 players in any of their last 8 games. They have ONE player coming off the bench. This is a brutal spot for a thin, bad team as IUPUI is playing their 4th straight road game in the span of 8 days. They’ve traveled to Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and now Pennsylvania in the last 8 days. Another blowout awaits the Jaguars tonight.

#743 ASA PLAY ON 8* Towson -3 over UNC Wilmington, Thursday at 6 PM ET - Towson is the best team in the Colonial (highest rated) and has been the entire season. They are the only team in the conference ranked inside the top 100. The Tigers currently sit in 2nd place in the league 1 game behind tonight’s opponents, UNCW. The Seahawks have been very fortunate this season as they’ve been down by double digits in a number of games in which they came back to win. They rank 196th in the nation which is actually 6th in the Colonial despite sitting in 1st place. They are coming off back to back tight home wins vs Charleston (won by 6) and William & Mary (in OT) who is the worst team in the conference ranked 337th. This is also a huge revenger for Towson who blew a double digit 2nd half lead at home and lost in OT vs UNCW. The Tigers are clearly the best team in the conference ranking 1st in offensive efficiency and 1st in defensive efficiency. They have proven they can get it done on the road with an 8-4 SU record and their only 2 conference losses on the road were down to the wire and they played each of those games without one of their key players. They should dominate the boards here as they rank 13th in the nation in offensive rebounding and UNCW ranks dead last in the Colonial in defensive rebounding. A loss here would be devastating for Towson as they would drop 2 full games behind Wilmington with only 4 remaining. We’ll side with the much better overall team to get the road win.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - We have an opportunity to buy low with the Warriors here who have lost 3 of their last four games overall, including a most recent loss against the Clippers. That ties into this wager as the Warriors are 12-3 SU off a loss, 8-1 SU at home off a beat. The Warriors are 26-5 SU at home and have the best home court point differential in the league at +12.2PPG. Golden State is coming off a very poor defensive showing against the Clippers and will play with a chip on their shoulder here. The Warriors have #1 ranked defensive efficiency numbers at home this season allowing just 1.019-points per possession. They also have the 8th best offensive efficiency at home The Nuggets will have a size advantage with Jokic but the Nuggets concern comes on the defensive end of the court where they rank 13th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in opponents FG%. The Nuggets are 16-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -0.2PPG. The Nuggets have lost 3 of their last four road games against similar opponents to the Warriors. Golden State has covered 6 of the last seven meetings between these two teams at home and we like them to get a double-digit win in this one.

#686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +4.5 over Illinois, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The RAC is one of the toughest venues in college basketball. This season alone Rutgers has already beaten Purdue, Michigan St, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio State here at home. Those are 5 of the top 7 rated teams in the Big 10 with only Wisconsin and Illinois missing off the list. That’s because they haven’t played host to those teams yet and they get their shot at the Illini tonight. The Scarlet Knights are 39-7 SU at home since the start of the 2020 season. On top of that none of those 7 losses have come by double digits so even their setbacks have been close. Rutgers is a sneaky 9-5 in conference play and if the Illini don’t come ready they’ll get knocked off. They may anyway. Rutgers has won 10 of their last 14 games and 3 of those 4 losses have come by 1, 3, and 8 points. Illinois has a huge game vs Michigan State on deck. Their last 2 games they struggled with Northwestern winning by 7 at home and got smoked at Purdue. The Illini are 2-2 their last 4 road games losing big to Purdue & Maryland, squeaking by NW by 3, and winning impressively @ Indiana. Rutgers defense has been impressive all season but it has been great at home. They have allowed just 59 PPG at the RAC on just 39% shooting. Illinois has a point margin of just +3 PPG on the road and this will be one of their toughest road dates of the season. The host has won 8 of the last 10 in this series and we give Rutgers a great shot at the upset. If not, we’re still getting a cushion here at +4.5.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - This is a bad line and a clear over-reaction to the Celtics current hot streak so we will grab the value and play on Philadelphia. Boston is 10-1 SU their last eleven games and gaining ground in the Eastern Conference. At closer look though the current streak might be a little overrated. The best wins came at home over a depleted Hawks and Heat team and the Denver Nuggets. The road wins the Celtics had in that stretch came against a Nets team without Durant, Harden and Irving and versus Orlando, Detroit, New Orleans and Washington. Those four teams have a combined record of 76-155 SU. The 76ers have two straight wins including a solid win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Philly was dealing with distracting issues during the trade deadline and now are rid of Ben Simmons in the deal for James Harden who is not expected to play tonight. Granted, the 76ers are without Seth Curry now but they were just favored by 1.5-points at home against the Suns and are now a home dog to Boston? That doesn’t add up according to our model. Philly has covered 7 straight in the series and 4 in a row at home. Embiid and company get it done tonight.

#606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State +3 over Michigan State, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Penn State comes in off 3 straight losses and each of gone to the wire. They lost @ Wisconsin by 2 points, home vs Michigan by 1-point and @ Minnesota by 6. This team has been very solid and competitive at home with wins over Iowa, Indiana, and Rutgers along with that 1 point loss vs Michigan we stated above. The Nittany Lions have covered 6 in a row at home. This is a dangerous spot for MSU who is coming off a huge home win over Indiana and Sparty has a home date with Big 10 leading Illinois this weekend. The Spartans also beat PSU by 16 earlier this year so it might be tough for them to fully focus here with a big look ahead game on deck. They’ve already shown they aren’t great handling short term success as they are 1-5 ATS when coming off a SU win. PSU is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation (351st) and they will turn this game into a crawl which is not how Michigan State likes to play. Versus the 2 slowest paced teams in the Big 10 this year besides Penn State, MSU has been blown out @ Rutgers and played 2 close games vs Minnesota (winning by 2 & 7). Sparty has played the easiest schedule thus far in Big 10 play (PSU has played the 2nd most difficult) and vs bottom half of the league teams on the road they haven’t been overly impressive. They were destroyed @ Rutgers, won @ Maryland by 2, and won @ Northwestern by 6 after trailing by 13. PSU is a very solid defensive team (54th nationally in defensive efficiency) and they hold opponents to just 64 PPG here at home. They have great shot at the home upset here and we’ll take the points.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +3.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - We like the Spurs and the points over the short-handed Bulls are expected to be without Zach LaVine here. The Bulls are 21-8 SU at home, yet have the worst average Margin of Victory at home of all the teams that have 20 or more home wins this season. Chicago wins at home by +4.8PPG which is 9th in the NBA. A big reason why the Bulls don’t win by large margins is their lack of defense at home. Chicago ranks 21st in defensive efficiency at home allowing 1.119-points per possession. The Bulls have the best home efficiency numbers in the league at home but will be without one of their main offensive weapons in LaVine. San Antonio is 11-17 SU on the road this season but their average loss margin is -0.4PPG. The Spurs have the 7th best road defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA allowing 1.088PPP. The Spurs have two straight wins as road dogs and we expect them to keep this game close.

#101 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -4 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Rams have quietly had a dominating run through the playoffs vs very solid opponents. They have outgained the Cards, Bucs, and Niners by a combined 1200 yards to just 824 for their opponents. Their defense has dominated, holding those opponents to an average of 4.7 YPP and just 18 PPG. To give you an idea of how good those numbers are, Buffalo led the entire NFL this year allowing opponents to average 4.8 YPP. Cincy, on the other hand, has allowed 5.9 YPP in the playoffs while gaining only 5.3 YPP. They’ve been outgained in all 3 games yet still won. Their offense has had 34 possessions in the post-season and scored only 5 TD’s. And those were vs defenses all inferior to this LA Rams unit. They’ve benefited from a +5 turnover margin in the playoffs which has kept them alive. We just don’t see the Bengals doing much offensively here. They’ll struggle to run vs a Ram defensive front that hasn’t allowed a single TEAM in the playoffs to reach 65 rushing yards. If the Bengals are forced into obvious passing downs, the Rams defensive front is the best in the NFL at creating pressure while the Cincinnati offensive line is one of the worst pass protecting units in the league. The Rams are built for the Super Bowl. They’ve had a number of key player additions this season (QB Stafford, WR Beckham & LB Miller to name a few) in their quest to get to this point. This was their goal from the beginning of the season. Cincinnati wasn’t expected to be here and based on their stats thus far in the playoffs, they probably shouldn’t be here. LA lost in the Super Bowl a few years ago and are accustomed to this spot. Cincy is not and had to travel for the 3rd straight time in the playoffs. We don’t think the Rams will have a home field advantage per se, however not having to travel is a bonus. If the turnovers stay even in this game, we have little doubt the Rams win and cover this number. Of course, we have no way of projecting that and TO’s are a huge predictor in the outcome. There is often little to no value so to speak in the Super Bowl line or total. That stands again this year as we have LA favored by exactly 4 with our power ratings. Despite that, we’ll simply side with the better overall team who proved they deserve to be here.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 over Indiana Pacers, 3:10 PM ET - Let’s consider this basic analysis first. Before the trade deadline the Pacers were just a +1.5 home underdog to the Chicago Bulls. They then traded away their two leading scorers in Sabonis and LeVert along with key role player Craig and were +6.5 points at home to the Cavs in the first game after the trade. Yes, they added talented Haliburton and Hield but clearly the oddsmakers feel they will regress in the short-term. The Wolves are off back-to-back losses but had won 5 straight games prior to that with a pair of impressive double-digit wins over the Jazz and Nuggets. The Pacers are on an 0-5 ATS streak while the Wolves are 5-1 ATS their last six games coming off a double-digit loss. As a favorite the Wolves have an average +/- of +9PPG and they have covered 11 of fifteen on the road against sub .500 teams. Don’t be scared off by the number, bet Minnesota.

#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTEP -6 over Marshall, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were on Marshall on Thursday night at home vs FIU in what we thought was a perfect setup for the Herd to pick up a win. They played a disappointing game and sent us home with a loss getting upended 72-71. That dropped Marshall to 1-10 SU in CUSA play and we expect them to be flat here going on the road a few days after losing a home game they felt they really needed to win. Speaking of the road, the Herd are 1-9 SU away from home including 0-5 on conference play. All but one of their conference losses have come by more than 10 points with an average loss margin of -15.4 PPG. UTEP is playing well winning 6 of their last 7 with their only loss coming @ North Texas, the #2 rated team in the league, by 8 on Monday. That gives UTEP nearly a full week to get ready for this game and Marshall just played on Thursday as we mentioned. The Miners will give the Marshall offense big time problems in this one. They rank 2nd in CUSA in defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, and 1st in 3-point FG% defense. Marshall ranks near the bottom of the conference in offensive efficiency and eFG%. The UTEP defense also creates a lot of turnovers (2nd in conference) and Marshall coughs the ball up a lot (12th in the conference). On the other end the Miners shoot a lot of 3’s and they shoot them well ranking 2nd in CUSA in 3 point FG%. Marshall’s defense ranks 331st at the arc. Lastly if they need to salt this one away late, UTEP hits 77% of their FT’s as a team. This one sets up very nicely for the host.

ASA play on 8* LA Clippers +7.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - These same two teams just met the other night with the Mavericks coming away with a 112-105 home win. We like the Clippers to get a measure of revenge tonight after that loss. Dallas got a HUGE game from Luka Doncic on Thursday night when he scored 51-points on 17 of 26 shooting, 7 of 14 from beyond the arc. We doubt he can duplicate those numbers as he isn’t known as a “shooter” with a 42.7% FG percentage and 32.7% from the 3-point line (30th in NBA of players with over 300 attempts). The Clippers have a 11-17 SU road record this season but are only slightly below the league average with a negative loss margin of -2.6PPG. Dallas is 20-10 SU at home on the year with a +5.3PPG differential. This series has been tight in the past with two games this season decided by 7-points each and one game being decided by 8-points but it took OT to get there. The Clippers are playing with a chip on their shoulder and get it done tonight.

#743 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Vanderbilt +12.5 over Tennessee, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Vandy is playing their best basketball of the season right now and they are catching Tennessee in a tough spot. The Commodores have won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 7 points @ Kentucky. The Vols are coming off a huge road win @ Mississippi State in a game that was much closer than the final score which was 72-63. In that win the Vols never led by more than 5 until under 1:00 minute remaining in the game and outscored the Bulldogs 11-2 in the final 3:00 minutes. They played that game without one of their best players, Nkamhoua, who was lost for the season in their game prior to playing MSU. We think that’ll take a toll on UT as we move forward. Tennessee also hosts a huge game on Tuesday with Kentucky coming to town. Good chance they don’t play at their peak here vs a team they beat 68-60 on the road earlier this season. In that game, Vandy led at half and never trailed by more than 8 points. The Commodores match up nicely here as UT takes a lot of 3’s and Vanderbilt is #1 in the SEC defending the arc allowing just 27%. In the first game they held the Vols to just 22% from deep but Tennessee made 9 more FT’s which was the difference in the game. On the other side, almost 40% of Vandy’s points come from beyond the arc (1st in the league) and UT’s defensive weakness is defending the 3 ranking 11th in the SEC. The Dores have proven they can get it done on the road with 4 true road wins this season (including @ Arkansas who is 19-5 overall and 8-3 in the SEC). They actually shoot better on the road this season from both inside and outside the arc. We think they’ll give Tennessee a real scare in this one and we’ll grab double digits.

#685 ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia State -1 over Appalachian State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is begging you to take App State. The Mountaineers are 10-3 and in 1st place in the Sun Belt and Georgia State is 4-5 in league play yet this is right around a pick-em and App State is the home team? The Panthers are finally playing like they should have been all season long after returning their top 6 players from a team that won the Sun Belt East regular season title 4 games ahead of App State in the loss column. They have now won 4 of their last 5 including 3 road games. They are 3-1 SU on the road in Sun Belt play with their only loss coming @ South Alabama, the highest rated team in the conference. The game prior to starting conference play the Panthers took Georgia Tech to OT on the road before losing. Georgia State is the #1 defense in the Sun Belt allowing conference opponents to average just 0.94 PPP. They also create more turnovers than any other team in the league and that with a top notch defense is a very tough combination to face offensively. These 2 met a few weeks ago and App State came away with a 61-60 win on a made shot as time expired. Ga State shot just 38% from the field (App State hit 44%) and just 24% from deep (App State hit 38% of their 3’s). Despite that the game went to the wire as the Panthers dominated the boards (+13) including 15 offensive rebounds which wasn’t surprising as they are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the conference. We expect Ga State to shoot better here and if they control the boards again, which they should, they’ll walk away with another road win.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10 PM ET - The Suns are 44-10 SU on the season and clearly playing at another level. Milwaukee is turning the corner and moved to 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. We don’t use “revenge” often in the NBA but that’s the case tonight as the Suns will be at another level emotionally tonight after losing to the Bucks in the Finals last year. The Bucks do have a positive road differential of +3.6PPG on the season but the Suns are 22-5 SU at home this season with the second-best margin of victory at +8.3PPG. Both teams are highly rated in terms of offense, but the difference tonight will be the Suns defense that ranks 4th best in the league in efficiency compared to the Bucks who rank 15th in points allowed per game this season. The energy and home crowd will carry the Suns to a double-digit win here.

#764 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marshall -4.5 over Florida International, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 played just a few weeks ago and Marshall was favored by -2.5 / -3 on the road in that one. Now we’re getting them at home -4.5 / -5. Great value here. A main reason for the low number is Marshall’s 1-9 CUSA record. Let’s keep in mind the Herd have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play and #117 overall – the most difficult of any CUSA team. FIU, on the other hand, has played the #310 SOS which is the easiest in CUSA and despite that they are just 3-8 in conference play. In their first meeting FIU pulled off a 4 point win but now Marshall gets them at home where they play much better. In fact, Marshall’s most recent home game was a win over UAB, the top team in the conference. They also played North Texas and MTSU (2 of the top teams in the league) to the wire here before losing tight games. The Herd have played 5 conference home games and 4 of those were vs teams ranked in the top half of CUSA. FIU is 0-8 SU on the road this year losing by an average of 11 PPG while shooting only 37%. They’ve lost 16 straight road games dating back to last season. The Panthers are in a tough schedule spot having played Saturday & Monday already now traveling just a few days later. Marshall has been off since Saturday. FIU has never won @ Marshall. They are 0-7 SU with every loss coming by at least 9 points. We’ll take Marshall here.

#738 ASA PLAY ON 8* Bradley +4.5 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This is a very dangerous game for Loyola. The Ramblers are coming off a huge road win @ Missouri State as they moved into 1st place in the MVC with the win. It was a game they had circled in red after losing at home to Missouri State by 10 points just a few weeks ago. So this will be the 2nd straight road game for the Ramblers and they have another huge game on deck vs Northern Iowa who currently sits in 2nd place in the conference. Our power ratings have Loyola as a 1-point favorite so we like the value here. Bradley is playing their best basketball of the season winning 5 of their last 6 both SU & ATS. The Braves match up very well with Loyola as they showed in the first meeting this year blowing a 16 point 2nd half lead on the road and losing in OT. Loyola had a big advantage at the FT line at +13 and still couldn’t put this Bradley team away. The Braves have a big size advantage over Loyola and they are the #1 rebounding team in the conference so they should control the interior. Bradley is also outstanding defensively ranking 1st in the MVC in eFG% allowed and 2nd in efficiency so they should be able to limit Loyola offensively. We have Bradley currently rated as the 3rd best team in this conference behind Loyola and Missouri State. It looks like the Ramblers will also be without starting guard Kennedy as he is dealing with a knee issue. Bradley is more than capable of winning this game and we’re getting a full 4 points so we’ll grab it.

#746 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State +1.5 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Our power ratings have MSU as the favorite in this game so we’re taking the points with the home team. The Bulldogs are an impressive 12-1 SU at home this season where they shoot 50% as a team with an average winning margin of +16 PPG. They are a perfect 5-0 SU at home in SEC play while going 0-5 SU on the road for the largest home/road dichotomy in the league. They are coming off a road loss @ red hot Arkansas (8 straight wins) but played the Razors to the wire (down by 2 with 1:00 minute remaining) before losing. Tennessee is coming off a blowout road win over South Carolina (3rd lowest rated team in the SEC) but the Vols still have a losing road record at 3-4 SU. Their 3 road wins have come vs teams that are currently rated 80th or lower and they just starting forward Nkamhoua (9 PPG / 6 RPG) to a season ending ankle injury vs South Carolina over the weekend. UT’s overall defensive numbers are really high but since getting into SEC play they’ve fallen off drastically. In SEC games only the Vols defense ranks 11th in eFG% allowed, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 10th in 2-point % allowed. That’s alarming for a team that hangs their hat on defense. MSU ranks 3rd in the SEC in offensive efficiency so they should have plenty of success in this one. Tennessee has just 2 wins in conference play vs top 8 in the league (LSU & Florida both at home), all other wins come vs bottom of the league. They should not be favored in this one and we side with the home dog.

#663 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois +6 over Purdue, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Tough to lay this many points right now vs a full strength Illinois team that is playing lights out. We faded the Illini on Saturday as a road favorite @ Indiana in a perfect spot for a letdown vs a rested Hoosier team coming in with a week off. Illinois had just beaten Wisconsin by 13 points to move into 1st place in the conference and they had this huge game on deck. Didn’t matter they handled IU by a final score of 74-57 giving the Hoosiers just their 2nd home loss of the season. We were dead wrong on that one. Now we’re getting a full 6 points with Illinois and they are in revenge mode after losing in double OT at home to the Boilers. We’ll put an asterisk by that loss as Illini All American center Kofi Cockburn suffered a concussion in that game (sat out the next 2 games) and had his worst outing of the season with 10 points and 5 rebounds in just 22 minutes before fouling out. Purdue had a huge advantage from the FT line making 26 of 32 with Illinois making 12 of 15 yet this game still went to 2 overtimes. Purdue has won 5 straight since their loss @ Indiana but their last 2 home games have gone to the wire beating OSU by 3 on a last second 3 pointer and then topping Michigan by 6 over the weekend. The Boilers like to bully teams inside on the boards with their size but Illinois matches up very well in that regard with Cockburn. The Illini are the #1 defense in the Big 10 efficiency wise along with eFG% allowed. They also are a very good perimeter defensive team which will be problems for Purdue as they rely quite heavily on the 3 point shot. The Illini have won 10 of their last 12 games with their only losses coming when Cockburn was limited due to a concussion (vs Purdue) or didn’t play in the game. We anticipate this game being close throughout and getting this many points with the Illini is a take for us.

#605 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +7 over UConn, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Marquette is no doubt the hottest team in the Big East winning 8 of their last 9 with their only loss during that stretch by just 2 points @ Providence who is 10-1 in the Big East and 20-2 overall. The Golden Eagles started this run with a massacre of that same Providence team winning by 30+ points at home giving the Friars their only conference loss this season. Not only did they top the Friars, but Marquette has also beaten Villanova (twice), Seton Hall (twice), and Xavier during this run. We feel UConn is a bit overvalued right now. Half of their Big East wins have been by 8 points or less and their 3 other conference wins were vs Butler (twice) and Georgetown, 2 worst teams in the league. They’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play and they only team they’ve beaten that ranks in the top half of the conference is this Marquette team. They beat the Golden Eagles by 8 on the road when Marquette was in the midst of a 4 game losing streak back in December. Marquette also played that game without one of their top players, Daryl Morsell (13.5 PPG), who is also their top perimeter defender. Even with Morsell out and Marquette in a bit of a slump in mid December, this was still a very close game throughout. The Eagles are now playing at another level as we discussed. UConn is a poor 3-point defensive team (9th in the Big East) while Marquette is the #1 three point shooting team in the conference hitting nearly 40% in league play. The Eagles have 4 regulars that shoot at least 35% from deep. Marquette is also the #1 defense in conference play in terms of efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3-point % allowed. We give them a great shot to win here and getting 6 points gives us a great cushion.

#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas -1 over Kansas, Monday at 9 PM ET - Any time a top 10 rated team is an underdog it makes us take a look. Most will automatically take the top rated dog but we often look at the favored team depending on the match up. There is a reason that team is favored vs a highly ranked opponent. Texas is very talented team that plays great defense (9th nationally in defensive efficiency & #1 in the country allowing 55 PPG) and they like to take fast paced teams out of their comfort zone by slowing the pace. That’s not a good match up for Kansas who loves to get up and down the court but will be locked into a half court game here with the Horns (347th in tempo). The team most comparable to the Longhorns in the Big 12 would be Texas Tech. The Red Raiders also play great defense yet like a slow tempo game. Tech gave Kansas all kinds of problems in their 2 meetings beating the Jayhawks by 8 at home and losing on the road in double OT. Texas has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that run coming @ Texas Tech. They just walloped a good Iowa State team by 22 points here on Saturday. They are 14-1 at home with a point margin of +21 per game. They catch Kansas off a huge home win over Baylor on Saturday and this will be the first time this season the Jayhawks are facing one of the top 4 teams in the Big 12 on the road. Two of KU’s conference road games were down to the wire where they came from a 2nd half deficit to top KSU and Oklahoma each by just 3 points – both teams ranked far lower than Texas. The Horns match up very well here with KU as they have length and defend the interior very well which is where the Jayhawks like to operate. Texas gets the win at home.

#872 ASA PLAY ON 8* Hofstra -7.5 over UNC Wilmington, Monday at 5 PM ET - UNCW sits on top of the Colonial with a 7-1 conference record. They have been one of the luckiest teams in the nation and we expect that to start to bite them, especially on the road. They have won 13 of their last 14 games and they’ve trailed by double digits in 10 of those 14 games. One of those come from behind wins came at home vs this Hofstra team just 10 days ago. The Seahawks trailed by as much as 15 in that game and didn’t take their first lead until the 2nd half. They led for less than 10 minutes in the game yet won by 6. Hofstra was favored by 4 in that road game and now we’re getting them only a few points higher at home. Hofstra now gets a shot a quick revenge here at home where they have been outstanding. The Pride are 8-1 at home winning by an average score of 85-70 shooting over 50% from the field and 37% from 3. They’ve also played the much tougher schedule facing 7 top 100 teams on the season to just 1 top 100 team for UNCW. Hofstra is actually the 2nd highest rated team that Wilmington will have played this season only behind Towson. Hofstra dominated the boards in their meeting 10 days ago (+13) but shot just 16% from beyond the arc yet the game still went to the wire. UNC Wilmington also sits in a brutal scheduling spot playing their 3rd road game 5 days having traveled Elon (North Carolina), William & Mary (Virginia) and now Hofstra (New York). The Pride, on the other hand, are playing their 3rd straight home game. There is a reason the team that sits in 3rd place in the CAA is favored by 7.5 vs the team that is in 1st place. Lay it with Hofstra.

#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -12 over Nevada, Sunday at 4 PM ET - SDSU has been money coming off a loss this season. They’ve also been money at home and we get both here. The Aztecs lost 53-52 @ Colorado State on Friday after making a furious comeback late. They were down 12 with just over 2 minutes remaining and took the lead with 14 seconds remaining at CSU, a very tough place to play. Now they are back home where they are 10-1 on the season with a point differential of +14 per game. In conference play their 3 home wins have come by margins of 30, 25, and 25 points and two of those were bounce back games off a loss. Nevada will be on the road for their 3rd game in just 6 days. The Wolfpack lost Tuesday @ UNLV by 11, Friday @ Fresno by 17 and they are now back at it on the road less than 48 hours later. They are just 1-6 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Air Force, the 2nd lowest rated team in the Mountain West. Nevada has been without 2 of their top players, Sherfield and Washington, the last few games due to injury and there is a good chance they won’t be back here. Their offense has been brutal during their current 4 game losing streak scoring 66, 49, 58, and 56 points in those games. We don’t anticipate it getting any better here facing a San Diego State defense that ranks 2nd nationally in efficiency and 4th in eFG% allowed. The Aztecs have not allowed a team to score more than 55 points in any of their conference home games. Offensively they’ve scored at least 72 points in 4 of their last 5 home games and most likely won’t need to get to that number to cover this game. We like San Diego State to roll up a big win.

#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado -9 over Oregon State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - CU is coming off a home loss and we really like this spot for the Buffs. They lost here vs a red hot Oregon team (won 8 of last 9) on Thursday night and this becomes a must win with 3 of their next 4 games on the road. The Buffs are 5-7 in league play but they’ve played the toughest strength of schedule in Pac 12 play to date. They do have 4 homes losses this year but they are vs the 3 of the 4 highest rated teams in the conference (UCLA, USC, Oregon) along with Tennessee who is one of the best teams in the country. Oregon State is rated as the worst team in the Pac 12. They are 3-16 overall on the season and just 1-8 in conference play. Their wins this year have come vs Portland State (274th ranked team), Nicholls State (217th ranked team), and Utah (2-11 record in the Pac 12 ahead of only Oregon St). On the road this team is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS. They lost @ Utah who is 2-11 in the conference by 25 points on Thursday night. The Beavers are getting outscored by an average of 14 PPG on the road and shooting only 39%. On top of all that, this is the toughest back to back in the conference and has been known as such for a long time. Playing in altitude @ Utah followed up by playing in altitude again @ Colorado 2 days later is brutal. OSU has the worst defensive efficiency in Pac 12 play this season and they are also last in eFG% defense. And they foul a lot which is good for Colorado who shoots 74% from the FT line as a team. 7 of OSU’s 8 conference losses have come by double digits and this has the makings of a blow out. Take the Buffs at home.

#606 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indiana -1 over Illinois, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This is a huge home game for the Hoosiers who are currently safely in the Big Dance, however with a number of really tough road games coming up this month (@ Mich State, @ Purdue, @ Ohio St) they need to pick up all the resume’ building wins they can. They are catching Illinois is a perfect spot for an update and the Illini just beat Wisconsin at home on Wednesday to move into 1st place in the Big 10. Indiana has been off since last Saturday so they’ve had plenty of time to rest and prepare for this one. The Hoosiers defense which is ranked #1 in the Big 10 in efficiency, matches up very well with this Illini offense. On Wednesday Illinois killed Wisconsin inside with Kofi Coburn 37 points in 16 of 19 shooting. That’ll be much tougher here vs an Indiana team that ranks 5th nationally defending inside the arc allowing opponents to make only 41% of their 2 point shots. That means the Illini will most likely have to be on from beyond the arc to have a shot here and we can’t anticipate that from a team that ranks 9th in the Big 10 (conference play) hitting just 33.8% of their 3’s. The Illini have played the easiest Big 10 road schedule to date. Their last 4 conference road games have come vs Minnesota, Northwestern, Maryland, and Nebraska – the 4 teams that sit at the bottom of the Big 10 standings all with 3-8 records or worse. Indiana sits with a near perfect 13-1 SU record at home with their only loss coming vs Michigan and that was a definite letdown spot just 3 days after the Hoosiers knocked off Purdue here at home. They’ll be more than ready for this home game after blowing a 2nd half lead here last year vs Illinois and losing in OT. Since the start of the 2018 season Indiana has been a home dog 10 times and covered 70% of those games (7). Indiana gets the home win.

#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -3 over San Diego State, Friday at 9 PM ET - CSU was 16-1 entering last weekend and they proceeded to lose 2 straight vs UNLV and in OT @ Wyoming. We like them to bounce back at home in Moby Arena where they have won 27 of their last 30 games! It can be tough for teams to come into high altitude and play well which is one of the many reasons that CSU has such a strong home court. San Diego State attempted was in a similar situation last week traveling to play Utah State in altitude and they lost by 18. SDSU then went home and blasted New Mexico so they are coming off a win. The Rams are fantastic offensive team ranking 18th in offensive efficiency nationally, 7th in eFG%, 18th in 3-point %, and 12th in 2-point %. They also make 79% of their free throws. San Diego State really struggles on offense at times. Especially on the road where they are averaging just 59 PPG on 37% shooting. They have played just 4 true road games and they are 1-3 SU in those games. This is a big time revenger for CSU after losing by 30 @ San Diego State one month ago. The normally sharp shooting Rams hit just 28% of their shots in that game and only 15% of their 3’s. SDSU is very good defensively but we look for a much better offensive performance from Colorado State who averages 83 PPG at home while shooting 52% overall and 40% from deep. The Aztecs will have trouble keeping up offensively here and we side with Colorado State to win and cover this short number at home.

#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* California -2 over Washington, Thursday at 11 PM ET - Cal has lost 8 straight games and now they are a favorite in this one. We actually have the Bears power rated as a 4.5 points favorite here so we like the value with the team coming off a big stretch of losses. They have a misleading 2-9 record in Pac 12 play as over half of those losses (5) have come vs the top 3 teams in the conference (UCLA, Arizona, and USC). They have lost 3 straight home games, however those were again vs the top teams in the Pac 12 (UCLA, Arizona, and USC). Prior to that the Bears had won 9 straight home games. Washington is 6-3 in conference play but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in league play having played Arizona just once and they have not faced USC or UCLA. The Huskies do have 2 conference road wins but those came vs Oregon State and Utah, the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. Their other 3 conference road games resulted in losses of 28, 16, and 14 points. UW just struggled big time with Utah at home over the weekend winning in double OT. At this number the oddsmakers are pretty much asking Washington to win on the road and they simply don’t shoot the ball well enough to be trusted here. They rank 312th or lower nationally in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. This has been a home team series with the host winning 9 of the last 10 outright and covering 7 in a row. Cal views this match up as a great chance to end their losing streak and they’ll bring a great effort at home tonight. Lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -3.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:40 PM ET - Man, I hate betting on the Lakers! LA is obviously a very popular and public team which means they more than likely are over-priced most nights. Since LeBron joined the Lakers, they are a money-burning 136-162-6 ATS (45.6%) which is the second worst spread record in the NBA since 2018. Portland has been horrible on the road this season though with a 7-17 SU record and the 4th worst average loss margin of -8.9PPG. They rank 25th in offensive efficiency on the road and last in road defensive efficiency. The Lakers have played a large portion of the season without Anthony Davis, so their home statistics are somewhat misleading. In games he’s played at home they are 9-7 SU. Yes, the Lakers will be without James here, but the Blazers continue to play and lose without their best player Lilliard. LA has covered 4 straight when coming off a spread loss and recently beat the Blazers by 33 at home. We like Los Angeles to get a solid home win and cover on Wednesday.

#672 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Minnesota +10.5 over Purdue, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This line is off. Our power ratings have Purdue -8.5. For comparison’s sake, Minnesota was just +11 @ Wisconsin on Sunday and now they are getting basically the same number at home vs Purdue. The Boilers are in a tough spot coming off an important 81-78 home win vs Ohio State on Sunday. They hit a tough 3-point shot at the buzzer to get that win. Purdue plays another important game at home on Saturday vs Michigan. In the meantime they are @ Minnesota who sits at 2-7 in Big 10 play and this sets up as a perfect spot for a Boilermaker letdown. They have played just 5 true road games on the year and they have a 3-2 record in those games with none of their wins coming by more than 10 points (losses @ Rutgers and @ Indiana). They average 84 PPG overall this season but that drops by 7 points when they have played on the road. Purdue’s road point margin is just +4 per game. The Gophers are finally back to full strength after their Covid slow down. They were missing key players on and off over the last few weeks but had everyone back for the first time in awhile in their game @ Wisconsin on Saturday, including big man Eric Curry who hadn’t played since January 12th. They gave the Badgers all they could handle in a 66-60 loss – game was tied 60-60 with 2:20 remaining. Minnesota is a bit undervalued in our opinion and they’ve been a very competitive team despite their 7 losses. Only 1 of those losses came by more than 13 points. Their average point margin in Big 10 play is -6.5 points per game and we think they keep this one close.

#680 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* George Mason +2 over St Louis, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We were on George Mason one week ago today as a home dog vs St Bonnies and picked up a nice win with the Colonials coming out on top 75-66. We’re getting the underrated GM team at home as a dog again and we’re jumping on them vs St Louis. They are playing really good basketball right now winning 7 of their last 9 games with their lone losses coming by 1 point @ George Washington, a game Mason played without their leading scorer Oduro, and @ Kansas by just 9 points. GM is a very good shooting team ranking 14th nationally in eFG% and 15th in 2-point FG%. They are tough to guard with 4 players averaging double digit points including 3 key transfers from Colorado, Tennessee, and Morehead State. St Louis is 5-2 in A10 play but they’ve faced the easiest schedule in the conference. The Billikens have played ONE team on the road that ranks in the top 7 in the conference and that was a loss @ Dayton. SLU has historically struggled on the road with a 2-3 record this season and they are 13-28 in conference road games under head coach Travis Ford. They are coming off a rare road win on Saturday vs Duquesne, one of the two worst teams in the conference, and they are now on the road for the 2nd straight game. George Mason is 8-1 at home this season with a +13 PPG margin and they are also 6-1 ATS as a dog this season. We like the Colonials to get it done again at home vs SLU.

#684 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indiana State +4 over Drake, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a very dangerous game for the road favorite. Drake is in a prime letdown spot here as they are coming off a huge home win vs Loyola over the weekend and they have a game vs arch rival Northern Iowa on deck. ISU has lost 5 of their last but they’ve been very competitive with only 1 of those losses coming by more than 8 points (@ Bradley on Sunday – we were on the Braves!). Their win during that stretch was at home vs Missouri State who is rated as the 2nd best team in the MVC behind Loyola. ISU has played the toughest schedule in the league have already faced Loyola twice (ISU led Loyola for most of the game at home and lost), Bradley twice (won one and lost one), Missouri State (ISU won), Northern Iowa (ISU lost in OT), and Southern Illinois – all of the top teams in the conference. The Sycamores score points from beyond the arc than any other team in the conference and they shoot it very well from deep at home (almost 38%). That is Drake’s weak point on defense as they rank 8th in the MVC defending the arc. The Bulldogs also foul more than any team in the league so we expect Indiana State to be at the line a lot in this game where they hit 77% in conference play. Drake was the biggest money maker in college basketball last season with a ridiculous 20-5 ATS record during the regular season. Because of that, they have officially been overvalued this season with a 5-14 ATS record and they have covered just ONE of their last 10 road games. We like ISU to pull the upset here.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -5 over Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - We like the home team to prevail by double-digits in this matchup and will back the Wolves here. Let’s get this out of the way first. The Nuggets are playing lights-out right now with 5 straight wins and 8 of their last ten. We do like they are coming off a blowout win of the World Champion Milwaukee Bucks and may letdown here, especially with a potential look-ahead with the Jazz. The Nuggets have won 4 straight on the road but other than the Bucks they won at New Orleans, at Brooklyn who played without the Big 3 and at Detroit. In contrast, let’s look at the Wolves' most recent home games. They beat the Jazz by 20, the Nets by 11 with Irving and Harden and the Warriors by 20. Minnesota is 6-1 SU their last seven at home with all six wins coming by 6 or more points. The Nuggets are a respectable 15-12 SU on the road this season but only 6 of those wins came against teams with a winning record. That ties into the Nuggets 8-18 ATS record in their last twenty-six road games versus a team with a winning home record. We like the Wolves by 10+

#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -8 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Bad spot and bad match up for South Carolina. They are catching MSU coming off 2 road losses vs 2 of the top teams in the nation. The Bulldogs lost @ Kentucky last Tuesday and took the Cats to OT on the road. Then they traveled to Texas Tech and they were out of gas both physically and emotionally after their Kentucky loss. Noticed it very early in the game and Tech rolled up an easy win. Now back at home where MSU is 4-0 in SEC play (11-1 overall) winning by an average of 12.5 points per game in league play. They have a +16 points per game margin in all 12 home games with 9 of their 11 wins coming by double digits. South Carolina is on the road for the 2nd time in 4 days after upsetting Texas A&M on Saturday. In SEC play the Gamecocks have a points per possession margin of -0.4 and MSU is +0.5 in that category. SC ranks 13th in the SEC (league games) in offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG%, and 13th in TO margin where they cough it up a whopping 23% of the time. They are also a poor defensive rebounding team (308th nationally) and MSU is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. Those 2 things alone (TO’s and rebounding) should lead to a bunch of extra possessions for the home team. Since South Carolina is a poor shooting team, they rely on their defense to create TO’s which turn into easy baskets. That’ll be tough here vs the Bulldogs who are #1 in the conference in TO rate giving it away just 16% of the time. The Gamecocks are aggressive defensively thus they foul A LOT. They foul more than any other team in the conference and their opponents % of points from the FT line is nearly 25% which is the 7th most in the entire nation. MSU is a solid FT shooting team at 72% while South Carolina has hit just 59% of their FT’s in conference play. Mississippi State by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - This is one of those “plug your nose” bets as we are backing a losing team as a road favorite. We will though for several reasons including going against a Thunder team that is 14-34 SU on the season and a team without their best player. The Thunder have the 4th worst overall point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG and lose at home by an average of -4.3PPG. OKC is better than the Blazers statistically on the defensive end of the court but are much worst offensively. The Blazers are 16th in offensive efficiency ratings and are the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. The Thunder rank 30th in points, FG% shooting and 3-point% shooting with the worst offensive efficiency numbers at 1.025-points per possession. Scoring will be even tougher tonight without their best players Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who is averaging 24.4 points, 7.1 assists and 5.5 rebounds in wins this season. The Thunder haven’t won this season without SGA in the lineup and stand 0-5 SU on the year. In those five losses the Thunder have been beaten by 12, 6, 73, 18 and 9 points. Going back further we find the Thunder are a miserable 6-36 SU without Alexander over the past two full seasons. OKC has lost 12 of their last thirteen. Portland is on a 5-0 spread run their last five games when coming off a loss of 10 or more points. The bet here is backing Portland.

ASA top play on 9* Chicago Bulls -5 over Portland Trailblazers, 3:40 PM ET - We like the situation to play an elite team in the NBA off a disappointing loss, versus a bad team off a win. The Bulls are coming off a loss in San Antonio and have been solid at home when coming off a beat with a 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS record. Portland defeated the Rockets in their most recent game and have struggled in this situation with a 3-8 SU/ATS record when coming off a win and on the road. Portland is 7-15 SU away this year with the 4th worst point differential in the league at minus -8.4PPG. The Blazers have the 29th ranked road defensive efficiency and 22nd offensive efficiency numbers. Chicago is 17-6 SU at home with the 8th best average MOV at +4.7PPG. The Bulls were recently a -4-point home favorite over the Raptors who are playing much better than the Blazers and now this line is only a 1.5-points higher?

#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -7 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Cincy’s path to this point has been less than impressive. They topped the Raiders by a TD at home in the Wild Card round despite getting outgained in the game on a YPG and YPP basis. Last week they went to Tennessee and won on a last second FG but that game was more or less gifted to them. The Bengals were dominated in the stats getting outgained by 1.4 YPP in the game but the Titans had 3 interceptions which killed any chance they had. The offense has been fairly pedestrian in those 2 games averaging 5.0 YPP and 5.4 YPP. They’ve scored just 1 TD in their last 18 possessions and their offensive line is a sieve allowing 11 sacks in the first 2 playoff games. The Bengals are +4 TO’s in those 2 games which is why the are still standing. KC, on the other hand, is rolling offensively averaging 7.4 YPP vs Pittsburgh and 7.6 YPP last week vs the #1 defense in the NFL. They scored 42 points in each of those 2 games and we see Cincinnati will have a tough time keeping up. Some may fear a possible letdown for KC after last week’s crazy win over Buffalo which many people felt should have been the AFC Championship game but we don’t think that happens. The Chiefs have won 11 of their last 12 games and their one loss was @ Cincy late in the year (lost 34-31) and blew a 28-17 first half lead. They will be focused in this one. We love the experience advantage with Mahomes and Reid playing at home in their 4th straight AFC Championship game vs a team, coach and QB who has never been this far in the playoffs. Teams on the road in the Championship round who won a road game the previous week are just 13-28 SU & 17-24 ATS as this is a very tough situation to be in. Mahomes is a perfect 8-0 SU in playoff games when Brady isn’t the opposing QB and will be very comfortable in this spot. KC wins and covers at home and moves on to another Super Bowl.

#844 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Bradley -7.5 over Indiana State, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Bradley is one of the hottest teams in the MVC winning 5 of their last 6. Their only loss during that stretch was @ Illinois State, a game Bradley led by 20 points late in the first half. Prior to this 6 game stretch, the Braves faced the 2 best teams in the conference, Loyola & Missouri State, and played very well. They lost those games by 2 points vs Mizzou State and in OT @ Loyola, a game they led by 16 in the 2nd half. So this team has been playing outstanding basketball over their last 7 games. Prior to that, they took on this Indiana State team on the road and lost by 5. The Braves were favored by -3.5 on the road in that one and now we’re getting them at -7 (as of this writing) so value on Bradley. In that 5 points loss the more physical Braves dominated the glass (+13) including 14 offensive rebounds. That led to 13 more FG attempts but they simply shot poorly in the loss. We expect them to handle ISU on the glass again here and if they shoot close to the 47% they average at home this should be an easy win. Indiana State is one of the youngest teams in the nation (3 freshmen starting) so it’s understandable why they are just 1-6 SU on the road this season. The Sycamores are also coming off a huge upset at home beating Missouri State earlier this week. They caught Mizzou St off a huge win of their own as they beat Loyola last weekend so it was definitely a letdown spot for the Bears. We like the red hot Braves in this revenge spot.

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +5.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Grizzlies are coming off a big game last night versus the Jazz and are ripe for a letdown. Memphis is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, 3rd in four nights and 7th in thirteen days. Washington meanwhile has been off since the 25th and will come into this game well rested. The Wizards are getting healthy with Dinwiddie, Beal, Bryant and Hachimura all back in the lineup. Washington is coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Clippers (lost by 1-point after leading by 35-points) the last time out and will be highly motivated here. Memphis is 5-4 SU when playing without rest, but their average margin of victory is minus -1.7PPG. The Wiz are a respectable 10-13 SU away from home on the season and not only do we like them to cover here, but we also won’t be surprised if they win outright.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky -5 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - This is a huge home game for WKY. They are 2-5 on conference play and have lost 4 straight games but they are much better than their record. The Hilltoppers have played one of the toughest schedules in CUSA play so far having already faced the 3 highest rated teams in the league (UAB, North Texas, and La Tech). They were very competitive in all 3 of those losses getting topped by 1, 3, and 5 points. The most recent coming at home on Wednesday vs UAB the best team in the conference. WKY lost that game 68-65 and made only 4 out of 17 three pointers (24%) but still had the game tied with under 10 seconds to go when UAB made a 3 at the buzzer. MTSU, on the other hand, has played the easiest schedule in CUSA play and they have a 4-2 record. Their last 3 games were vs FIU, Southern Miss, and Marshall, 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the league. They struggled big time @ Marshall (0-7 CUSA record) on Thursday night squeaking by with a 2 point win. The Blue Raiders trailed for most of the game but made 2 FT’s in the final seconds to win. MTSU was 0-6 SU on the road entering that game vs Marshall and they are now playing their 2nd road game in 3 days. They are a very poor 3-point shooting game (330th nationally) and they rely on getting to the FT line more than most teams. Problem here is Western Kentucky fouls as little as anyone in the nation allowing just 10.8% of opponents points to come from the stripe (lowest percentage in the country). The Hilltoppers are the much better offensive team ranking 3rd in CUSA (conference games) in eFG%, 3rd in 3 point %, and 4th in 2 point %. The are also the much bigger team, the more experience team, and they create bunches of TO’s (best in CUSA) which will make it difficult for an MTSU team that turns the ball over a lot. WKY is the better team despite their CUSA record and they are backed into a corner in a must win spot. We’ll lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +1.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - We successfully played against the Spurs the other night with part of our analysis touching on scheduling and fatigue being a factor for San Antonio. It showed late in the game and the Grizzlies took advantage with a cover. This isn’t a back to back for the Spurs but this will be their 9th game in sixteen days. The Bulls are 30-17 on the season and sit second in the East behind the Heat. Chicago went through a funk recently with a 4-6 SU record their last ten games but that was largely due to injuries to Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozen. Both are back here and played well in their most recent game, a win over Toronto. Chicago ranks in the top half of the NBA in most key statistical categories when playing on the road. The Spurs on the other hand rank 25th in defensive efficiency at home which will show in this game with the weapons the Bulls have offensively. Chicago is the 2nd best overall shooting team in the NBA, 1st in 3-point percentage and they should take advantage of a Spurs defense hemorrhaging points in the paint. The Bulls get this road win.

#877 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island +6.5 over Dayton, Friday at 7 PM ET - We were on URI earlier this week vs Richmond and came up short as they lost 70-63. It was a game the Rams led by 15 in the 2nd half but were outscored 15-1 in the final 5:45 as URI did not make a single shot during that stretch. It was a game they should have won and they blew it. Dayton also played on Tuesday and squeaked by Fordham the 4th lowest rated team in the A10. Final score was 68-61 and Fordham played without their 2nd and 3rd leading scorer in that game . Not overly impressive for Dayton. The Flyers are expected to have some ups and downs as they are the YOUNGEST team in college basketball. They start 4 freshmen and 1 sophomore and their first 3 players off the bench are also freshmen. As you would expect with a very young team, Dayton turns the ball over A LOT ranking 324th nationally in that category. URI is very good at creating turnovers defensively – 4th best in the conference – so this isn’t a great match up for Dayton when it comes to that. The Flyers also score most of their points from inside the arc (55% which is 31st most in the country) and that is the Rams strength on defense as they limit opponents to just 43% shooting from 2 point range – 9th best in the nation. Rhode Island has been a solid road team going 3-3 so far with losses @ Providence (one of the top teams in the Big East), @ Davidson by 4 (top rated team in the A10) and @ Florida Gulf Coast by 1. They are one of the better teams in the nation defensively (13th nationally in eFG% defense & allowing just 63 PPG). They are set up very well to cover as a dog and we think they have a great shot to win this one. Take the points.

#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Southern Illinois +6.5 over Loyola Chicago, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These two just met on Saturday @ Loyola and the Ramblers won 59-47. The game was much closer than that with Loyola leading by just 3 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Ramblers went on an 11-2 run in the final 3 minutes to win by 12. Southern Illinois shot terribly (33%) and made 5 fewer FT’s and still were in the game until the final few minutes on the road. SIU is better than their 10-10 record (3-5 in conference play). They have played the 3rd toughest schedule in league play and 7 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less. Loyola has played the easiest schedule in league play and their 2 road wins in the MVC have come @ Evansville (last place in the conference) and Indiana State (2nd to last place in the conference). The Ramblers other 5 league games have all come at home. SIU is 3-1-1 ATS this year as a dog in MVC games and 6-3 ATS overall getting points. Their overall numbers at home (PPG, FG%, and 3 point %) are all much better than on the road as to be expected. We can expect Loyola to be in a letdown spot here after just beating Southern Illinois and with a huge game vs Drake, the team that sits in 2nd place behind them, on deck. Take the points.

#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State +1.5 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Utah State is in must win mode after starting MWC play with a 1-5 record. USU has played an extremely tough schedule this season (41st SOS) and 6 of their 9 losses have come by 5 points or less. They have an SOS of #2 in conference games and they have lost 4 in a row all by 7 points or less and their 2 home games during that stretch came by 2 vs Wyoming (4-1 conference record) and by 3 vs Boise State (7-0 conference record). The Aggies are much better than their 10-9 record and they are the only team in the Mountain West that ranks in the top 80 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This team was 20-9 last year and lost to Texas Tech in the first round of the NCAA tournament. They really need a win here and they are rested and getting healthy after a full week off. They catch San Diego State playing their 3rd game in 5 days. A very quick turnaround for the Aztecs after beating UNLV on Monday night. SDSU hasn’t played a road game since January 1st and their offense really struggles at times to say the least. On Saturday they scored only 37 points in a home loss to Boise. In road games they are averaging just 60 PPG while shooting 37% from the field and only 20% from beyond the arc. The Aztecs are very good defensively but you need to score some points to cover games on the road, especially as a favorite, and they simply don’t do that. These two conference rivals met 3 times last year and Utah State won 2 of those games. USU has been favored in every home game this year, including vs Boise last week who is undefeated in conference play. We like the value of the home dog here and we have Utah State winning this one.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Spurs and back the Grizzlies in this matchup. First off, the line on this game looks “fishy” and higher than it should be. San Antonio was just a +1-point home underdog against Brooklyn and Philadelphia and are now catching 4 or more points here? Vegas clearly wants you to bet on the Spurs so in contrarian fashion we will back Memphis. The Spurs are coming off a game last night in Houston and played their best basketball of the season. But now they are unrested playing the second night of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in four nights and 8th game in only 13 nights. Fatigue will be a major factor tonight. Memphis meanwhile is coming off a loss on the 23rd in Dallas so they are rested and hungry for a W. The Grizz are 6-2 SU with 2 days rest this season while the Spurs are 4-5 SU without rest. Memphis is significantly better in terms of offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency with a 15-8 SU road record to their credit. Spurs are on an 0-5 ATS streak as a dog, Grizzlies have covered 4 straight off a spread loss. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -9 over Utah Jazz, 7:10 PM ET - The Jazz have struggled offensively of late with Donovan Mitchell sidelined. The Jazz managed just 92 points last night against the Warriors and put up 111 in games against Houston and Detroit who are two of the worst defenses in the NBA. Utah has the #1 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA for the season but in the last five games they slip to 10th. It will be especially tough to score tonight against a Suns team that is 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing .995-points per possession. The red-hot Suns have won 9 of their last ten games and five straight with the average margin of victory in those five games coming by 15.4PPG. This is a really tough spot for the Jazz who are playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back, 3rd game in four days AND 6th game in nine days. These same two teams met again in Utah on Wednesday so expect the Suns to make a statement here.

#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Illinois -6 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7 PM ET - South Dakota sits ahead of WIU in the Summit standings with a 4-3 record (WIU 3-4) but WIU is the better team by our metrics. South Dakota has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (348th) and they have played the easiest schedule so far in the Summit League (10th). They still have 3 conference losses despite that. They may look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 4 straight but those wins have come vs the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference with all 3 rank below 267th nationally. They Coyotes have struggled on the road with a 2-5 SU record and their only wins away from home came @ North Dakota who is 4-14 on the season and 0-5 in conference play and @ St Thomas who is 8-10 overall and 2-4 in league play. They haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 200 this season and they are 0-4 SU vs teams ranked higher than 200. WIU is coming off a home loss vs the top team in the conference, South Dakota State. They will be hungry for a win here as their 2 home games in conference play (both losses) have come vs the top 2 teams in the league. They are 6-0 in their other home games this season. Offensively they average 80 PPG and an even better 85 PPG at home. They should have success in this one vs a South Dakota defense that ranks 308th nationally in eFG% defense and 353rd in 3-point defense (out of 358). The Coyotes were just on the road in Minnesota on Saturday (St Thomas) and now they are in Illinois just 2 days later to play this make up game that was originally scheduled for last week. WIU has been at home since January 15th. Tough spot for the road team. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:10 PM ET - The Hornets are quietly making some noise in the East with an overall 26-20 record, while the Hawks have disappointed at 20-25. On the season the Hawk are 9-14 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -3.1PPG which ranks 20th. A large reason why Atlanta has struggled away from home is their defensive efficiency ratings which is 2nd to last in the NBA. Charlotte has the 9th best average point differential in the league at home at +4.4PPG. They have the 5th best home OEFF numbers which is clearly a significant advantage against the Hawks D. Charlotte has won 7 of their last eight games with impressive wins against the Bucks (twice), at Philly and at Boston. Atlanta has won three in a row but all three were at home. Charlotte is 9-3-1 ATS the last 13 meetings with Atlanta in Charlotte.

#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +2 over Xavier, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Don’t look now but Marquette just might be the hottest team in the Big East. The Golden Eagles have now won 5 straight games including wins @ Villanova earlier this week and home wins vs Seton Hall and Providence – 3 of the top teams in the conference. They are catching Xavier in a tough spot playing their 2nd straight road game with the stomach flu running through the team. The Musketeers topped DePaul 68-67 on the road Wednesday but it was a struggle. They trailed for much of the game and actually took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 2:00 minutes remaining. DePaul played that game without their leading scorer Freeman-Liberty (21 PPG) so an unimpressive effort from Xavier. They had 2 key players under the weather for that game and now another starter (Freemantle) is battling the flu. They may or may not play but none are 100%. These 2 met back on December 18th when Marquette was in the midst of a 4 game losing streak and simply not playing well. Xavier won the game 80-71 and that margin came at the FT line where the Musketeers attempted 35 FTS’s (made 21) to just 12 attempts for the Eagles (made 8). Marquette has been scorching from deep hitting at least 43% from beyond the arc in 4 of their last 5 games and Xavier has struggled guarding the 3 their last few games allowing 43% and 38% vs Creighton and DePaul. This sets up very nicely for the Golden Eagles to win at home.

#304 ASA PLAY ON 8* Green Bay -5.5 over San Francisco, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a terrible spot for San Fran. It’s their 3rd straight road game and their games @ LA Rams and @ Dallas they were must win situations and both went down to the wire. While the Niners were expending all kinds of physical and mental energy to make sure their season stayed alive, the Packers were resting. GB’s starters played in the first half of their season finale @ Detroit and then sat the rest of the game and obviously last week as well. Add to that the 49ers will be on a short week (played Sunday now Saturday) and the temps in Green Bay on Saturday night will be 10 degrees or lower and this warm weather west coast team could have problems. The coldest game SF played in this year was @ Seattle where the temps were in the low 40’s. Big difference for them on Saturday night in GB. They are a bit banged up after the last 2 games including QB Garoppolo who has a bad hand AND bad shoulder. The freezing weather could really hinder his effectiveness. Their top DE Bosa is also questionable at best in concussion protocol. Meanwhile Green Bay is as healthy as they’ve been all season and could bet a number of key players back for this one including starting LT Bakhtiari, starting CB Alexander, and starting OLB Smith. When these two met in San Francisco earlier this season, the Packers squeaked out a 30-28 win but really dominated the stat sheet gaining 6 YPP while holding the Niners to only 4.6 YPP. Teams playing in the Divisional round when coming off an upset win the week before have been terrible investments – 6-30 SU and 13-23 ATS since 1998. Meanwhile Divisional home teams that were off the first week of the playoffs are 100-34 SU dating back to 1988. Packers win by at least a TD and move on to the NFC Championship game for the 3rd straight season.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -3.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Cincy heads out on the road after their first playoff win in over 30 years last weekend. It was a rather unimpressive 26-19 win over the LV Raiders, who actually outgained the Bengals 385 yards to 308 yards and 5.4 YPP to 5.0 YPP. Two huge turnovers cost Vegas in that game as one turned into a Cincinnati FG and another took away the potential game tying TD late in the game at the Bengals 9 yard line. One thing that stuck out like a sore thumb to us in that game was Cincinnati’s inability to stop the run. The Raiders ran for 7.4 YPC in that game. Not a good trend now facing a very good running team (Titans 5th in the NFL at 141 YPG rushing) and Tennessee expect RB Henry back in the line up. On top of that, the Bengals lost 3 key DT’s in last week’s game, one is definitely out this week and the other 2 are highly questionable. The Titans not only get Henry back on offense, they will have both their top WR’s Jones & Brown in the line up for just the 8th time this season. The first 7 game they were able to team up, Tennessee was 6-1 SU. The Titans defense played outstanding down the stretch holding 6 of their last 8 opponents to 17 points or less and they allowed only 16.8 PPG in home games this season. We also give Tennessee a big coaching edge here with Mike Vrabel who is a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS when his team has at least 8 days of rest. Cincy’s coaching staff and players are new to the playoff scene and after a win last week where they didn’t perform all that well, they now take the road vs a veteran playoff team and coaching staff. Many are questioning the legitimacy of the Titans as a #1 seed but they have a very solid resume topping both of the top 2 teams in the AFC, the Bills & Chiefs, this year. Rested home teams in the Divisional round are 100-34 SU since 1988 and that continues here. We’ll lay the points with Tennessee.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON Miami FL -2.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Huge revenge game for Miami from just 11 days ago. Miami led on the road @ FSU for a majority of the game and lost 65-64 when the Canes (with a 1 point lead) were called for a foul with 1 second left on the clock. FSU hit both FT’s and won by a point. That loss is the Canes only setback in their last 11 games. This team is playing very well. They beat Duke on the road and just walloped UNC at home by 28 points all within the last 2 weeks. FSU is also on a bit of a roll winning 5 straight but 4 of those wins came at home. For the season the Noles are just 2-4 SU in road games. Dating back to last season FSU has covered just 1 of their last 9 road games. They are averaging just 66 PPG and shooting only 41% from the field in their 6 road games this season. Miami is 9-1 at home this season averaging 84 PPG and hitting nearly 50% of their shots. We like the red hot Canes to get their quick revenge at home in this one.

ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -13.5 over Detroit Pistons, 9:10 PM ET - Detroit is 4-19 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.2PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.151PPP. Detroit is 24th in points allowed per game, 29th in opponent FG% D, 28th fin 3-point percentage D and 25th in rebounding. Now they face a jazz team that is 1st in scoring, the 3rd best shooting team at 47.5%, 6th in 3-point percentage and 4th in rebounding. Offensively the Pistons aren’t any better than they are defensively. Detroit is 28th in scoring, 29th in FG%, 29th in 3-point percentage and 28th in offensive rebounding. The Jazz are top 12 defensively in all the key categories. What makes this play more attractive is the fact the Pistons are coming off a big come from behind win at Sacramento while the Jazz are off a disappointing home loss to the lowly Rockets. The Jazz recently lost in Detroit as a -10.5-point favorite and will get a 20-point win here.

#888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -7 over Evansville, Friday at 7 PM ET - We look for ISU to play very well at home after playing very poorly in their worst loss of the year @ Missouri State. Prior to that blowout loss, the Redbirds, who are 9-9 on the season, had 5 losses by 6 points or less or in OT. That included tight games @ top 10 Wisconsin (lost by 4) and vs a very solid St Louis team on a neutral court (lost by 6). ISU has had a rough stretch of games over the last 30 days with 4 road games and just 1 home game. In that 1 home game they topped Bradley by 9 points. Tonight they take on an Evansville team that is 0-5 in the MVC and just 4-12 on the season. The Aces wins have come vs DePauw (non Division 1), IUPUI (ranked 358th out of 358 teams), Eastern Illinois (ranked 354th) and Tennessee Tech (ranked 273rd). They are 1-5 SU on the road this season (only win vs Eastern Illinois) and 4 of those 5 losses have come by at least 20 points. ISU is very good offensive averaging 79 PPG and they rank 17th nationally hitting almost 39% of their shots from beyond the arc. That’s a bad match up for this Evansville defense that allows opponents to make 42% of their 3’s which is the 2nd worst mark in the country. On top of that, Evansville struggles to score averaging only 59 PPG which won’t get it done here vs the higher scoring Redbirds. We’ll lay the points.

#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts -20.5 over North Dakota, Thursday at 8 PM ET - This one will be ugly. ORU has a top notch offense that ranks 77th nationally in adjusted efficiency, 32nd in eFG% and 13th in 3 point %. The are the 8th highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83 PPG and at home they are putting up a ridiculous 91 PPG. That’s going to be a massive sized problem for a North Dakota defense that ranks DEAD LAST in the country (358th) in defensive efficiency. The Hawks allow their opponents to hit 40% of their 3-point shots and we already mentioned ORU’s prowess from beyond the arc. ORU is coming home after sweeping a 3 game road trip and their last home game was on January 1st vs Nebraska Omaha. Why do we bring that up? Because Nebraska Omaha and tonight’s opponent are very similar defensively (both stink) with Omaha actually ranking 11 spots higher in defensive efficiency. How did that game turn out? Oral Roberts won 107-62! Don’t be at all surprised of the Golden Eagles hit triple digits in this game. Does North Dakota have any chance of keeping up? Nope. The Hawks rely fairly heavily on the 3 point shot and they aren’t very good at it (288th nationally). They are facing an Oral Roberts defense that has allowed opponents to make only 29% of their 3’s which is the 38th best defensive mark in the country. They are 0-8 on the road losing by an average of 19 PPG. The 3 worst teams in the Summit are North Dakota, Nebraska Omaha, and Denver (all ranked below 300). ND played the other 2 conference cellar dwellars on the road this month and lost @ Denver by 19 and @ Nebraska Omaha by 16. Now they are playing the 2nd best team in the league on the road and it’s gonna get ugly.

#753 ASA PLAY ON 8* Belmont -5 over Morehead State, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 have similar records (Belmont 14-4 / Morehead St 12-5) but Belmont is the much better team. Belmont’s 4 losses have all come vs top 100 teams and since their 2-point loss vs Dayton on December 18th, the Bruins have won 9 of 10 games. They’ve also beaten 4 top 100 teams this year including St Louis, Drake, and Iona away from home. This is a huge step up in competition for Morehead State. In fact, since mid December, this team has not played an opponent ranked inside the top 300. They have won 6 straight games vs teams ranked 356, 354, 319, 312, 310, and a non division 1 opponent. Their best win this season is vs Arkansas State who ranks 179th. For comparison’s sake, their opponent tonight Belmont ranks 55th nationally. In their 4 games vs top 100 opponents this year, Morehead State has lost by margins of 23, 23, 20, and 14 points. Belmont is a fantastic shooting team ranking 7th nationally in eFG%. They hit over 60% of their shots inside the arc which is a poor match up for the Morehead defense that allows opponents to score almost 60% of their points from 2-point range (21st most nationally). Belmont finished last season with a 26-4 record and they basically returned everyone from that team (97% of their minutes are back) including all 5 starters. They’ve been waiting for this one as their NCAA hopes were dashed in the OVC tourney last year by this Morehead State team. The Bruins get the revenge they’ve been waiting for.