Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-21-21 | Pistons +7 v. Knicks | 91-105 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Detroit Pistons +7 over New York Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - NBA scoring is trending up right now, yet this game has an extremely low total of 207 which means limited scoring from each team. That makes the Pistons a “buy” with this generous numbers. Are the Knicks ready to lay this type of number? We don’t think so. The Knicks are 1-6 ATS as a -7 or more favorite this season and have an overall +/- of -1.5PPG on the season. Looking at the Pistons last three games as double-digit dogs we find they were against much better teams at Indiana, Phoenix and the Lakers. The Pistons are coming off a much-needed win over the Heat but had lost 14 straight prior to that W but half of those losses were by 10-points or less. The Knicks are on an 8-16 SU their last 24 games and shouldn’t be laying this many points against the young Pistons. |
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12-21-21 | Xavier v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Villanova -5.5 over Xavier, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We are siding with one of the best teams in the nation coming off 2 losses. This is a great spot to jump on Nova at home. The Cats lost their last 2 games @ Baylor and @ Creighton, with their most recent game vs the Blue Jays being their worst effort of the season. We look for them to play very well at home in a must win type game early in the season. They have only played 3 home games this season which resulted in wins of 40, 29, and 19 points. They are 35-3 SU their last 38 home games! The Wildcats have prepared themselves well by playing one of the top 10 SOS’s in the country. Nova has already faced FOUR teams ranked in Ken Pom’s top 10 – Baylor, Purdue, UCLA, and Tennessee. The rolled Tennessee and led by double digits in the 2nd half vs both Purdue & UCLA before losing tight games. Xavier is solid but they’ve feasted on home games so far this season. They’ve played just ONE true road game @ Oklahoma State a few weeks ago. Despite shooting a terrible 10 of 50 from 3-point land their last 2 games Villanova is still ranked 8th nationally in efficiency averaging 1.14 points per possession and they are still making a very solid 36.2% of their 3’s on the season. The favorite has covered 13 of the last 17 in this Big East battle and Xavier is 0-6 SU @ Villanova since joining the Big East. We like Nova to bounce back in a big way at home tonight. |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks +7 v. Rams | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
#337 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +7 over LA Rams, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Seattle is fairly healthy for this game, with the exception of WR Lockett, while we still don’t know who is in or out for the LA Rams due to Covid protocols. It looks like LA’s TE Higbee and a starting OL will most likely miss this one along with a few key defensive players. LA won the first meeting @ Seattle by 9 but that was the game QB Russell Wilson injured his finger and he sat out the entire 2nd half. Geno Smith took played a significant role for the first time since 2017 and Seattle still only lost by 9. Wilson is now back and getting healthier every week. The Seattle offense, which really struggled when Wilson first came back, has now put up 63 points the last 2 weeks. Their season long offensive stats are misleading with Wilson sitting out 3.5 games and not being fully healthy when he did come back. The defense has been flying under the radar but playing very well allowing 23 points or less in 8 straight games. They’ve won 2 straight including a win over a very good San Francisco team 2 weeks ago. The Rams seem to have gotten back on track after a 3 game losing streak but we’re not so sure. They beat Jacksonville 2 weeks ago in a win that doesn’t mean much as the Jags are terrible and obviously had internal problems. Last week they beat Arizona but were outgained by almost 100 yards in that game. The Cards then proceeded to lose @ Detroit by 18 points so maybe that LA win over Arizona wasn’t what it was made out to be. The last 6 games in this NFC West rivalry have all had a spread of 3 points or less. Now we’re getting a full TD with Seattle. For comparison’s sake, Seattle was +3 @ Green Bay in Wilson’s first game back from injury. This number is too high. The Rams overvalued losing 5 of their last 6 ATS as a favorite and 7 of 10 as a chalk this season. Seattle keeps this close. |
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12-20-21 | Maryland-Eastern Shore +12.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 54-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
#306227 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Maryland Eastern Shore +12.5 over Charlotte, Monday at 7 PM ET - UMES is undervalued right now as they step into this game with a perfect 7-0 ATS record. They have played well on the road winning 2 games already as an underdog and losing by 12 or less @ UConn, @ St Joes, @ Liberty, and @ Campbell, all teams rated higher than this Charlotte squad. UMES has some momentum winning 3 in a row and they’ve had 9 days off to rest up and get ready for this one. Charlotte just played Friday in a huge game for them @ Wake Forest. They lost by 3 but the final was misleading as Wake led the game by 19 before Charlotte made a furious comeback. With only a few days rest we anticipate a letdown here. The 49ers are 5-5 this year and their home wins have come by 2, 7 and 12 points along with a 17 point home loss vs Davidson. Not one of their wins this season has come by more than 12 points. The 49ers are poor defensively ranking 325th in eFG% allowed so they have a tough time pulling away in their games. UMES doesn’t have great overall stats on the year but they don’t turn the ball over and they shoot the 3 quite well at 35%. Facing a Charlotte defense that allows opponents to hit 35.6% (ranked 266th) we like Maryland Eastern Shore to hang around in this game. Take the points. |
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12-20-21 | Tulsa v. Old Dominion +9.5 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
#220 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Old Dominion +9.5 over Tulsa, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - We can look at ODU’s year almost as 2 separate seasons. They started the year losing 6 of their first 7 and ended winning 5 straight. The positive run came with the Monarchs switched starting QB’s with Wolff taking over for their game vs Western Kentucky. He led them to a 5-1 record with their only loss coming vs Western Kentucky which wasn’t a surprise with WKU’s powerful offense (they beat App St in bowl game). In those 6 games Wolff threw for over 1700 yards with 10 TD’s. Prior to that they had thrown for only 850 yards and 5 TD’s in 6 games. They also inserted RB Olson right around that time and he ran for over 100 yards in 6 of his 7 starts. Throwing out their game vs FCS Hampton, the Monarchs averaged 19 PPG over their first 5 and when they made the switch at QB & RB they averaged 33 PPG including a win @ Middle Tenn St who just beat Toledo in their bowl game as 10 point dogs. In fact, Conference USA teams have shown the league may have been underrated as they’ve been underdogs in all 5 of their bowl games thus far, winning 3 of those games outright with a 4-1 ATS mark. Tulsa was 6-6 as well on the season but 5 of their 6 wins came by 8 points or less. The only double digit win they had this season was vs Temple, one of the worst teams in the nation. They were outscored on the year (26-27 average score) and their QB Brin had a tendency to give it away throwing 16 picks on the season – the most in the nation. Tulsa also comes into this game without 3 of their assistant coaches who’ve moved on including their DC. We like the way ODU is playing with confidence the 2nd half of the season and we like their shot to win this game outright. We’ll take the points as a nice cushion. |
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12-19-21 | Mavs v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - The Wolves have made great strides defensively this season and it’s showing in their record. Minnesota ranks 11th in defensive efficiency this season after ranking 28th a year ago. The Wolves are averaging 108.7PPG which is 12th best in the NBA and are the 10th best rebounding team. Dallas is 26th in scoring this year and the 24th worst offense rebound team in the NBA. Dallas does hold teams to 104.6PPG this year but a lot of that has to do with how slow they play (3rd slowest in the NBA). The Mavs have the 22nd ranked FG% defense in the league. The Wolves have three impressive wins in a row over Portland, Denver and the Lakers most recently by 18-points. The Mavs are coming off a 3-point loss to that same Lakers team. Lay the points with Minnesota. |
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12-19-21 | Falcons v. 49ers -9 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
#324 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -9 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - While these 2 teams have similar records – SF 7-6 / Atlanta 6-7 – this is a mismatch which is why the line sits where it is. The Niners rate as the 8th best team in the NFL DVOA per Football Outsiders ranking 6th in offense and 8th in defense. Atlanta ranks dead last in the NFL DVOA and 29th in offense, 30th in defense. Atlanta has beaten the lower tier teams in the NFL (Jacksonville, NY Jets, NYG, etc…) but when facing solid teams, they’ve been smoked. They’ve played only 5 games (out of 13) this season vs teams that currently have a winning record. The Birds are 0-5 both SU & ATS in those games and they’ve been outscored 178-51 in those games for an average score of 35-10! All of those losses came by at least 15 points and they were not fluky losses as Atlanta was outgained 6.0 YPP to 4.4 YPP in those 5 games combined. SF is playing their best football of the year winning 4 of their last 5 despite being on the road 3 of the last 4 weeks. They’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 7 teams that are currently above .500 with 5 of those teams landing in the top 10 overall DVOA. Despite the difference in SOS, the Niners have a +0.5 YPP differential and a +28 point differential on the season while Atlanta is -0.5 YPP with a -108 point differential (2nd worst in the NFC ahead of only Detroit). Even in the 6 games Atlanta has won this year, they were outgained in 5 of those contests. San Fran is making a push for the playoffs and this is a crucial game at home. They are facing an Atlanta team that is much worse than their record and playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. We like the Niners to roll to a double digit win in this game. |
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12-18-21 | Oregon State -7 v. Utah State | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
#215 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State -7 over Utah State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - USU could be a bit overvalued here after destroying San Diego State in the MWC Championship game a few weeks ago. SDSU was not at full strength for the game with a number of players out with Covid which not only affected the game, but their practice situation leading up to the game. USU played the much weaker schedule especially down the stretch where they faced just 1 bowl team in their final 7 regular season games and that was Wyoming, a game USU lost 44-17. The Aggies defense does not match up well with Oregon State’s offense. They ranked 82nd nationally stopping the run (allowed 163 YPG) yet faced only 3 teams ranked in the top 40 in rushing and 6 teams ranked below 95th in rushing. In their games vs top 40 rushing teams they allowed 437 yards on the ground (Air Force), 363 (Wyoming), and 221 (BYU). Oregon State averages 219 YPG rushing which is 13th nationally and will control the trenches here. The overall numbers favor OSU as well despite playing the much tougher schedule. The Beavers finished with a YPP differential of +0.7 and USU was +0.2 for the year. Motivation is always something that needs to be addressed in early bowl games and both will bring their best here. Many times a team from a Power 5 conference may not be thrilled to be playing a team from a lesser conference but that won’t be the case here as Oregon State has not been to a bowl game since 2014 so they are thrilled to be here. If both teams bring it, OSU is the better team and should win by more than a TD. |
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12-18-21 | Knicks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 over NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - Something isn’t quite right with this number and it looks very much like a trap to bet on the Knicks. So, we’ll side with Boston here minus the points. Granted the Celtics are coming off a game last night, but they also had 3 days off prior to Friday’s action so lack of rest isn’t an issue. The Knicks started the season out hot with a 5-1 SU record in October but since then they’ve struggled with an 8-15 run. In the Knicks most recent nine games they have just 2 wins and they came at the expense of the 9-20 Rockets and 10-17 Spurs. On paper the Celtics look similar to the Knicks with a 1-5 SU record in their last five games but take a look at that schedule. They’ve faced the Lakers, Clippers, Suns, Bucks and Warriors. Those five teams all rank top 9 in defensive efficiency and now the Celtics face a New York team that is 22nd in DEFF. Boston has advantages on the offensive end of the floor with the 13th highest scoring average compared to the Knicks 23rd ranked average. New York beat Boston in October at home by 4 in OT and we like the Celtics to get a measure of revenge here with a double-digit win. |
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12-17-21 | St. Mary's -2 v. San Diego State | Top | 53-63 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Mary’s -2 over San Diego State, Friday at 10 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Phoenix. St Mary’s has been waiting for this one. That’s because when these two faced off last year (first time in 10 years) SDSU embarrassed the Gaels 74-49. St Mary’s returned 100% of their minutes from last year so this veteran team was all there last year during that debacle. They are 10-2 this year and have already beaten 3 top 100 teams. San Diego State is 0-3 vs top 100 teams this year with 2 of those losses coming by double digits. The Aztecs are a poor shooting team which will be a problem here vs the 8th most efficient defense in the nation. SDSU ranks 302nd in FG%, 312th in 3 point FG%, and 320th in scoring. On top of that they only make 66% of their FT’s. San Diego State is 6-3 on the year but they’ve also had some luck on their side as their opponents have only shot 60% from the FT in games vs the Aztecs which is the 4th worst in the nation. Both teams are very good defensively but St Mary’s is the much better shooting team, extra motivated, and one of the more veteran teams in college basketball. This number is too small in our opinion. Take St Mary’s. |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-41 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
#203 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Coastal Carolina -10.5 over Northern Illinois, Friday at 6 PM ET - Based on this year’s stats and our film study, Coastal is the much better team in this match up. We also think there is some line value with Coastal. They were just favored at South Alabama by 14.5 to end the season and now laying just 10.5 on a neutral vs Northern Illinois team we have power rated almost dead even with South Alabama. CC had just 2 losses this year by a combined 5 points. They were +165 YPG and +2.3 YPP on the season with a average winning margin of +20 points per game. NIU won the MAC but they’ve been fairly shaky all season. If you throw out their game vs FCS Maine, the Huskies were outgained by 82 YPG on the season and had a YPP differential of -0.7. Despite winning the MAC they were outscored on the season as well. Their numbers equated to a .500 or below team. CC is far superior defensively allowing 122 fewer YPG than NIU. Offensively they are a bit closer however on a YPP basis the Chanticleers average a full 1.6 YPP more than the Huskies. Coastal seems to be motivated for this game after losing in this bowl last year in OT vs Liberty. QB McCall, who leads the nation in passing efficiency and yards per pass attempt (12.2), has stated they really want this game for the seniors and they are completely focused on winning this bowl game. If both teams play their “A” game, this is a blowout. The only chance NIU has is if Coastal is flat and uninterested or they turn the ball over a bunch. Lay the points. |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -3 over LA Chargers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - KC playing as well as anyone in the AFC right now winning 6 straight and 8 of their last 10. After struggling early in the season, their defense has been outstanding allowing single digits in 4 of their last 5 games and they’ve allowed just 13 PPG over their last 8 games. LA won the first meeting of the season @ KC 30-24. However the Chiefs outgained the Chargers but had 4 turnovers in the game (0 for LA) including 3 giveaways inside the LA 40 yard line. While KC’s defense has kicked it in high gear, the Chargers defense has gotten worse as the season has progressed. They have allowed an average of 29 PPG over their last 9 games. LA really has very little to no home field advantage as many times their opponent has as many fans in the stadium as the Chargers do. They are just 3-3 SU at home with their 3 wins coming vs Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, and Cleveland, all teams that are currently .500 or below. The Chiefs are 3-2 SU on the road this year outgained their opponents 445 to 337 and outscoring them by an average of 30-24. The road team in this AFC West battle has won 8 of the last 10 meetings outright. As these 2 battle for the lead in the division (KC up by 1 game over LA) we’ll side with the experienced team, QB, and coach who is used to this situation. Lay the FG with KC. |
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12-15-21 | Wizards v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 105-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +2.5 over Washington Wizards, 10 PM ET - The Kings are coming off a couple road losses and return home where they had won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The Kings held a player only meeting after the recent 3 game road trip and aired some differences regarding effort amongst the team. Now that they are back at home, we expect a much better effort in this one. Washington meanwhile is coming off a tough game in the higher altitude of Denver on Monday night and will be shorthanded again here without Kyle Kuzma who is in Covid protocol. The Wizards opened the season by winning 6 of their first eleven road games but have since lost four of five away from home. Washington has the 21st worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -3.9PPG. If you look at overall season statistics it shows Washington has an advantage defensively but when you focus on their last five games the Kings have the better defensive efficiency numbers. Offensively the Kings have been better all season long and in their most recent five games too at 1.126-points per possession. Sacramento gets it done tonight at home. |
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12-15-21 | Pacers -2 v. Bucks | 99-114 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Indiana Pacers -2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - Clearly the Bucks injuries and Covid issues have impacted this line to have the Pacers a road favorite but according to our model the number is still manageable and predicts a Pacers win by 8-points. The Pacers are much better than their 12-17 record would indicate as they are top 12 in the NBA in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. This team has four players averaging over 12PPG in scoring, three of which are all over 16PPG in Brogdon, LeVert and Sabonis. They are also the 4th best defensive rebounding and 13th best offensive rebounding team in the league. The Bucks will be without Giannis and his 27PPG along with 11.6RPG which is obviously a significant loss. Milwaukee may also be without Khris Middleton (18PPG, 6RPG) who hyperextended his knee the other night against the Celtics. Indiana is coming off a tough 2-point home loss to the Warriors but had won 3 straight prior to that and are playing well right now. Indiana is favored for a reason. Lay the points. |
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12-15-21 | South Dakota State v. Missouri State -2.5 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
#660 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -2.5 over South Dakota State, Wed at 7 PM ET - Terrible spot for South Dakota State here. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and coming off an upset win over Washington State (game played in Spokane). They won by just 3 points in a game they shot 62% from beyond the arc with Washington State hitting only 25% of their triples. Wash State also played without one of their better players (Jackson) in that game. Prior to that win, SDSU lost @ Idaho by 14 on Wednesday. That’s an Idaho team that ranks below 300 and whose only win previous to beating the Jackrabbits was over something called George Fox University. Missouri State returns all 5 starters from a team that went 17-7 last season. One of those starters is out with an injury but they are experienced on their bench as well. The Bears are currently rated as the 2nd best team in the MVC only behind Loyola Chicago. They are a solid shooting team that is facing a most likely tired and terrible defensive team in South Dakota State – ranks below 250th in most major defensive categories. If they need to protect a lead late MSU hits 80% from the line as a team. Great spot for the Bears facing a SDSU team that has traveled to Idaho, then Washington, and now Missouri all in the span of a week. |
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12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers +3 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +3 over Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Scheduling certainly favors the home team Blazers as the Suns are off a game last night against the Clippers. That’s significant considering the multitude of injuries the Suns currently have with 6 players out including starters Booker and Ayton. Portland has been much better at home than on the road this year with a 10-5 SU season record and four of those losses have come this month. Portland is coming off a home loss as a favorite and primed for this huge Western Conference showdown. This will be the third meeting of the season with the home team winning both and 6 of the last seven meetings. Phoenix has been dominating this season but that is with a full supporting cast. Not tonight. Bet the Blazers. |
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12-14-21 | Georgia State v. Mississippi State -9 | Top | 50-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -9 over Georgia State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - MSU is off back to back losses vs Minnesota & Colorado State and they really need this win at home. Each of those losses was decided in the final seconds as MSU was tied with Minnesota with under 1 minute remaining and they led CSU by 8 with less than 6 minutes remaining and lost by 3. The Bulldogs were 6-1 SU prior to those losses with their only setback coming vs Louisville. Georgia State is 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming in OT @ High Point. The 2 top 100 teams they faced on the road both routed this team with Richmond winning by 16 and Rhode Island winning by 35. Both of those teams rank lower than this Mississippi State team. GSU plays terrible defense which is why they struggle on the road. The Panthers rank 357th in eFG% defense and 355th in 3 point FG defense allowing teams to shoot a ridiculous 43% from deep. MSU is 68th nationally in defensive efficiency and will be the highest rated defense that Georgia State has faced this year. MSU also has a huge size advantage (69th nationally in average height with GSU 348th in that category) and should control the glass on both ends. The Bulldogs shoot very well at home (50% overall & 41% from deep) and they will have their way vs this poor GSU defense. Must win for MSU off 2 losses and they play with urgency tonight. |
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12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -2.5 over LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Rams simply aren’t playing very well. Prior to last week’s win over Jacksonville they had lost 5 straight vs the number by 62 points losing by an average of 12 points to the number. They are 5-4 SU over their last 9 games with their wins coming vs Houston, Jacksonville, Detroit, NY Giants, and Seattle with Geno Smith at QB. The first 3 listed rank 29th, 30th, and 31st DVOA on Football Outsiders. Anytime they’ve faced a team with a pulse as of late, they’ve come up short (losses vs GB, Arizona, SF, and Tennessee over the last 9 games). QB Stafford has a bad back and sore arm and it has showed in his performance as 5 of his 9 interceptions on the season have come in the last 4 games. The Rams also have Covid issues right now with starting RT and Center out along with starting RB Henderson. Arizona came off bye 2 weeks ago and they are much healthier then the Rams right now. QB Murray is back and he has his full complement of WR’s in the line up. With Murray at QB they have scored 30+ points in 7 of 9 games. Cards are 10-2 on the season (9-3 ATS) with their only losses coming by 3 points vs Green Bay and at home vs Carolina when Murray was out. That was in fact their last home game which was nearly a month ago. Arizona will be ready to make amends for that embarrassing loss. These 2 met in LA this year and the Cardinals were + total yardage, + yards per pass attempt, + yards per rush attempt and won the game 37-20. Arizona is 4-0 both SU & ATS vs division foes this year and they get another win and cover on Monday. |
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12-12-21 | Lions +11 v. Broncos | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
#121 ASA PLAY 8* ON Detroit +11 over Denver, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Lions got their first win of the season last week and we expect that momentum to carry over here. Despite a 1-10-1 record the Lions have been in most of their games with nine of those contests being decided by 10-points or less. The Lions have three bad losses on their resume to the Packers by 18, Bengals by 23 and the Eagles by 38 and if you eliminate those games their +/- is -3.7PPG. The Broncos find themselves in unfamiliar territory here laying double digits for just the second time of the season with the first coming against the Jets at home. In fact, the Broncos have been a -10 or more-point favorite just two times dating back to the start of the 2015 season and that was when Peyton Manning was under center. Denver is 6-6 SU on the year with a +/- differential of +1.6PPG. The Broncos are 4-10-1 ATS their last fifteen as a home favorite and Detroit has covered 4 straight road games. It’s too many points, grab the Lions. |
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12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -2.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This game sets up very nicely for the Browns. They are coming off a bye and they lost @ Baltimore 16-10 the game before their bye week. In that game the Ravens ran 20 more offensive snaps (77 to 57) and still couldn’t pull away for a comfortable win at home. Cleveland was outgained in total yardage which would be expected when you run 20 fewer plays, however on a yards per play basis the Browns outgained the Ravens 4.6 to 3.9. Baltimore comes in a bit demoralized after losing @ Pittsburgh last week and the way they lost makes it really tough to bounce back. The Ravens scored a TD with only a few seconds left and decided to go for 2 points rather than kick the XP and go into OT. The Ravens offense has been really bad over the last month and a half or so. They have been held under 20 points in 5 of their last 6 games and over the last 4 weeks they’ve scored a TD on just 5 of 45 possessions (11%) which is the worst in the league during that stretch. It will be tough for them on offense again facing the 4th rated defense in the NFL on Sunday who just held them to 3.9 yards per play 2 weeks ago. Cleveland is as healthy as they’ve been since early in the season coming off last week’s bye. Both RB’s Chubb and Hunt are back. QB Mayfield was able to rest his ailing shoulder for the first time this season. The Browns are 6-6 on the season yet they’ve outgained their opponents 5.7 yards per play to 5.2 yards per play. Baltimore is 8-4 but they’ve been outgained 5.5 yards per play to 6.1 yards per play. The Ravens are not nearly as good as their record might indicate and we like Cleveland to win by at least a FG at home on Sunday. |
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12-11-21 | Houston v. Alabama -1 | Top | 82-83 | Push | 0 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
#716 ASA TOP PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Houston, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Big game here and we give Bama the edge at home. The Crimson Tide have a record of 16-1 SU at home since start of last year and they are 12-5 ATS in those games. Their average margin of victory in those 17 home games was +15 points per game. This year they are 4-0 here with an average margin of victory of +19 points per game. They have had a week off since beating Gonzaga in Seattle 91-82 last Saturday. The Tide dominated that game vs last year’s National Champions holding as much as an 18 point lead in the 2nd half. That that game was in Gonzaga’s back yard. This will be their first home game since November 17th when they beat Oakland, the top team in the Horizon League, by 27 points. We absolutely respect Houston and know they are a very good team, but this will be their first true road game of the season. It’s also been almost 3 weeks since they’ve played a legitimate opponent with their last 3 games coming against teams ranked 336th, 314th, and 231st. The Cougars have 3 wins vs top 100 opponents this year, however all 3 of those teams are struggling this season (Virginia, Butler, and Oregon). They lost to Wisconsin on a neutral court for their only setback. Houston had an outstanding 28-4 record last season but they only played 8 true road games and they were 5-3 SU in those games with losses to East Carolina, Tulsa, and Wichita State. Two evenly matched teams here and home court will be a huge factor. Bama gets the win. |
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12-11-21 | Navy +7.5 v. Army | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
#103 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Navy +7.5 over Army, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET - Army is already locked into a winning season, a bowl game, and they will retain the Commander In Chief trophy no matter the outcome of this game. This is Navy’s bowl game. Army has a solid 8-3 record but they’ve been a terrible investment as a favorite going 1-4 ATS in that role this season and 58-84 ATS in that role dating all the way back to 1980. Navy is just 3-8 SU (7-4 ATS) entering this game but they’ve played much better over the last 5 or 6 weeks. During that stretch they beat a bowl bound Tulsa team, lost to a bowl bound East Carolina team by 3 and early upset Cincinnati losing by a TD but outgained the Bearcats by 37 yards. Army was outgained by 4 of their last 5 FBS opponents putting up more yardage than only UMass who finished the season with a 1-9 record. Both teams obviously love to run the ball but both defenses know how to defend this offense. It’s not a novelty to these teams which is why these games are almost always low scoring (total set at 34). A low scoring game gives extra value to the dog especially one getting more than a TD. Seven of the last ten meetings between these two rivals have been decided by a TD or less. Navy brings everything they have in their final game of the season and keeps it close. Take the points. |
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12-11-21 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State -3.5 | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
#604 ASA PLAY ON 8* Ohio State -3.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We are located in Madison WI so we know the Badgers quite well. They have outperformed expectations thus far but they are still a very young team (303rd nationally in experience) that will have ups & downs. We think this is a spot they will struggle. It’s just their 2nd true road game of the season after winning by 4 points @ Georgia Tech on December 1st. A Tech team that is solid but nowhere near as good as this Ohio State team. Wisconsin is off a game on Wednesday night where they were in a huge 22 point hole at home vs Indiana and made a massive comeback to pick up a win. It was Wisconsin’s biggest comeback in school history. Ohio State was taking care of non-conference foe Towson while the Badgers were exerting a huge amount of energy in their comeback. Both teams are very good defensively but OSU has the much better offensive numbers. They rank 7th nationally in efficiency, 11th in eFG%, 18th in 3 point FG%, and 32nd in 2 point FG%. Wisconsin ranks 48th, 272nd, 262nd, and 245th respectively in those categories. OSU is 5-0 at home this year including a win over Duke. The Badgers are very good this year, better than expected but this is a bad spot for them. Take OSU. |
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12-10-21 | Lakers -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - I’ll start by saying this, I hate betting on the Lakers as I simply don’t trust them to play hard every night, which is a byproduct of their best player not being the hardest worker in the gym. Tonight I will make an exception as I do feel the Lakers will put forth a maximum effort against the Thunder. OKC has beaten the Lakers twice this season and came from behind in both after trailing by 19 and 26 in each game. Those embarrassing losses should have L.A. focused tonight, not to mention they are coming off a loss last night to Memphis. The Lakers were just a 4-point favorite in Memphis and are now laying just 5-points to the 8-win Thunder. OKC has won two straight, but one of those came at the 4-20 Pistons expense, while the other was against a Raptors team coming off two big wins over Washington and Milwaukee. Prior to their two wins the Thunder had lost 8 straight, two of which came against a bad Rockets team. The Lakers have a slight edge in defensive efficiency and huge advantage offensively as they rank 5th in scoring compared to an OKC team averaging just 99.3PPG which ranks 30th in the NBA. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 35 h 27 m | Show |
#102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3 over Pittsburgh, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Love this situation for the Vikings. They are coming off an embarrassing loss @ Detroit giving the Lions their first win of the season. Detroit scored on the final play of the game for the 29-27 win. The Vikes outgained the Lions 6.0 to 5.2 YPP in that loss. It was the 2nd straight setback for Minnesota after losing @ San Francisco a week earlier putting this team in must win mode at home on Thursday. Let’s not forget the 2 games prior to those losses the Vikings beat the Chargers on the road and the Packers at home. Pittsburgh is coming off a gigantic division 20-19 win beat Baltimore by 1 point when the Ravens decided to go for the win and a 2 point conversion in the final seconds but came up inches short. Now going on the road on a short week after a very physical division battle is not ideal. Prior to squeaking by Baltimore the Steelers tied Detroit at home, lost @ LA Chargers (outgained by 3.1 YPP!), and lost 41-10 @ Cincinnati. The Steelers were +6 in their game @ LA Chargers and +4 @ Cincinnati and now +3 @ Minnesota, a team that ranks ahead of both those teams DVOA? Last week’s loss @ Detroit is giving us nice value here with the Vikings. Despite Minnesota’s 5-7 record (Pitt is 6-5-1), the Vikes rank 11th overall DVOA (12 spots ahead of Pitt), are better defensively (DVOA - 17th to 20th), better offensively (DVOA - 8th to 20th) and they’ve played the tougher schedule to date. Minnesota has a + point differential while Pittsburgh, despite being 1 game above .500, has a point differential of -42. The Minnesota defense was missing their top DB last week with Patrick Peterson out in Covid protocol but he returns this week. The Vikings are receiving tons of criticism in the Minneapolis area after their loss last week and now they are in must win mode on Thursday. We think they come out and play very well and pick up a win & cover over the banged up Steelers. |
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12-09-21 | Texas v. Seton Hall +2.5 | Top | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
#852 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall +2.5 over Texas, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here in our opinion. This line opened Texas -2 and we have Seton Hall power rated as a 2-point favorite. Texas is 6-1 but they’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 185 this season. That was a double digit loss vs Gonzaga. The Horns also have played one 1 road game this year and haven’t been away from home since November 13th. This is a tough spot for them to be favored against an undervalued Seton Hall team. We were on the Pirates earlier this year when they were a dog @ Michigan and won outright. They’ve played the tougher schedule having already faced 2 top 20 teams and 5 ranked inside the top 140. Seton Hall’s only loss this season was by 3 points vs Ohio State, who just beat Duke a week ago. The Pirates are one of the more experienced teams in the nation with 4 senior starters and 3 more upperclassmen who contribute off the bench. They play outstanding defense (30th in efficiency & 15th in eFG% defense) and they are one of the better rebounding teams in the country. The Longhorns are integrating a number of new transfers into the rotation and new head coach Chris Beard is still perfecting his schemes on both ends of the court with this team. Seton Hall is by far the best team Texas has played in nearly a month and we don’t see the Horns winning this game on the road. Take the points. |
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12-08-21 | Celtics v. Clippers -3 | Top | 111-114 | Push | 0 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3 over Boston Celtics, 10:30 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Celtics who are coming off a marquee game against the Lakers last night and are playing their 4th game in 6 days. The Clippers have had two days off and will be the much fresher team in this match up. The Clippers have underachieved thus far, but they have won 3 of their last four games including a pair of road wins against the Lakers and Blazers. The Celtics are 7-7 SU on the road this season but only 3 of those wins came against a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 40-22 SU their last 62 home games with a +/- differential of plus +5.8PPG. The bet here is the Clippers as a low favorite. |
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12-08-21 | Marquette +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
#711 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +2.5 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We like this spot for Marquette coming off a loss on Saturday @ Wisconsin. The Golden Eagles have been better than expected this year with 3 wins already over top 100 opponents including Illinois, West Virginia, and Ole Miss. KSU is coming off a big win over in-state foe Wichita State. Those 2 hadn’t played in 18 years and a big deal was made of that game so KSU could be a little flat here. There is also a good chance they’ll be without their leading scorer Pack (16 PPG) who is dealing with a concussion. Prior to their win over Wichita all of KSU’s wins were vs teams ranked 288th or lower. The only 2 top 100 teams they faced prior to Sunday but ended in losses for the Wildcats (Illinois & Arkansas). KSU’s overall defensive numbers are solid but in their 5 wins they’ve faced 3 teams with an offensive efficiency rank of below 300 and their opponents average offensive efficiency rank in those win is 278th. Marquette ranks in the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Marquette remains undervalued having already won 3 games outright as an underdog this season. The Golden Eagles will give the Cats all they can handle here and we give them a great shot at the outright upset. Take the points. |
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12-07-21 | Nets -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 PM ET - The Mavericks have potential injuries to Luka and Porzingis and even if they do play we like the visiting Nets. Brooklyn is coming off a home loss to the Bulls on Saturday (which we called) and is very good off a “beat” this season with a 6-0 record. Brooklyn’s James Harden has not shot it well this season but a return to the state of Texas may do wonders for his confidence. Brooklyn is better on both ends of the court in this matchup with the 5th ranked defensive efficiency compared to the Mavericks 18th ranked unit. Offensively the Nets also have the advantage offensively ranking 11th in OEFF compared the Mavs who rank 21st. The Nets are 8-2 SU away from home this season with the 3rd best overall point differential of ++6.7PPG. The Mavs have lost two straight at home to inferior teams and this will be their 3rd. |
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12-07-21 | Bradley v. Toledo -6 | Top | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
#610 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toledo -6 over Bradley, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Rockets are coming off a 13 point loss @ Michigan State over the weekend and we look for them to bounce back with a home win. Speaking of him, Toledo is just happy to be playing a home game as they’ve played only 2 of their 8 games this season at home. Even with that, they have a solid 6-2 record on the season. Speaking of home games, the Rockets have won 17 of their last 18 games at Savage Arena with 15 of those 17 wins coming by at least 6 points which would give them a cover tonight (spread as of this writing is -5.5). They return a number of key players from a team that finished last season with a 21-9 record. Bradley has had to replace a number of their top players from a year ago with 8 new players on the team. After starting the year with a 1-5 record, the Braves have won 3 straight but those wins were all at home and 2 of those wins came vs teams ranked below 300. The one game they did win vs a solid opponent was a 2 point win at home over Northern Iowa. Bradley was +4.5 at home in that game and now they are +5.5 on the road vs a Toledo team we have power rated higher than UNI. Value on the host here. Bradley has only played 1 true road game this season and that was their season opener in early November, a 16 point loss @ South Dakota State. They have a record of 2-10 SU on the road since the beginning of last season. One huge advantage for Toledo here is at the FT line. They get there a lot with 22% of their points coming from the stripe (40th in CBB). Bradley sends teams to the line a lot with 23.6% of their opponent’s points coming from the line (20th most in CBB). Toledo shoots 78% from the line. Bradley shoots 58% from the line and they don’t get there much (14% of points from FT line – 309th). Rockets win and cover at home. |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -2.5 over New England, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Pats come into this one with a 5-0 SU record on the road but they played perhaps the easiest road schedule in the NFL thus far. Their opponents? Houston, NY Jets, Atlanta, Carolina, and the LA Chargers. The only legit competition in that group was the Chargers and New England was outgained 6.4 YPP to 4.7 YPP in that contest but benefited from a pick 6 in that 27-24 win. Their other 4 road opponents have a combined 15-33 record. Going into Buffalo on Monday night will be their most difficult game this season. The Bills are coming off a 31-6 win @ New Orleans on Thanksgiving so they’ve had extra time to get ready for this one. The Bills have had a few stinkers this year losing at home to Indy and getting tripped up @ Jacksonville, but the numbers still show they are the top team in the AFC. They have a YPG differential of +114 and a YPP differential of +1.3, both tops on the NFL. New England’s defense has been on a very good run over the last month but 3 of the 4 offenses they’ve faced during that stretch rank 22nd or lower in offensive DVOA. As good as the New England defense has been, the Buffalo defense is #1 in the NFL allowing just 4.6 YPP compared to 5.1 for the Pats. During their current 6 game winning streak, the Patriots have been a big time beneficiary in the turnover department with a +13 margin in those 6 games alone. They probably can’t count on that tonight facing a Bills team that is 4th in the NFL in TO margin. NE QB Jones has had a great rookie season but after facing a number of lower tier opponents on the road this year, now he takes on the #1 defense in the NFL in one of the toughest venues in the league. We expect him to struggle. All 7 of Buffalo’s wins this year have come by at least 15 points and we like them to cover at home on Monday. |
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12-06-21 | Illinois v. Iowa -2 | Top | 87-83 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -2 over Illinois, Monday at 7 PM ET - We went against Iowa on Friday night when they traveled to Purdue and the Hawks impressed us. They lost by just 7 facing the #1 team in the country in one of the toughest venues in the nation. A very good 3-point shooting team (37th best nationally), Iowa hit only 23% from beyond the arc in that game and made 12 fewer FT’s than the Boilers and still had a shot trailing by 2 points with 2:30 remaining. Not only that, they did so without their star player Keegan Murray (25 PPG & 9 RPG) who was out with an ankle injury. Murray is scheduled to be back in the line up in this game. The Illini have played 3 games away from their home arena this year and it hasn’t been impressive. They lost @ Marquette, lost by 20 on a neutral site vs Cincinnati and beat Kansas State by 8 on a neutral. They’ve struggled all year with turnovers (308th in TO percentage) and now they face a pressing Iowa team that is very good at creating turnovers (37th nationally). It won’t help that the Illini will most likely be without their starting PG Curbelo who has a neck issue. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and the host has covered 6 of the last 7. With this number currently sitting at -2, we most likely just need Iowa to win this game at home where they’ve won 33 of their last 36 games. Take the Hawkeyes. |
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12-05-21 | Jazz -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -4.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:40 PM ET - There is a lot of buzz surrounding the Suns and Warriors as the best teams in the NBA but don’t sleep on this Jazz team. Even though they have 7 losses this season they are 8th in overall defensive efficiency and 1st in offensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have been a pleasant surprise this season and are doing it on the defensive end of the court with the 3rd best DEFF in the NBA. The difference between these two teams though is on the offensive end of the court where the Cavs rank 18th in OEFF. The Jazz have the best road differential in the NBA this season at +8.4PPG and they’ll win by at least that margin here. |
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12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
#463 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers +3 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Buy low, sell high spot here. The Chargers are coming off a loss @ Denver last week in a game that set up nicely for the Broncos who were coming off a bye. Cincinnati has had 2 straight impressive looking wins beating the Raiders 32-13 and Steelers 41-10. However, let’s not forget that their 2 games prior to those wins, the Bengals lost at home 41-16 vs Cleveland and lost @ NY Jets. Cincy has the better record in this match with a 7-4 mark compared to the Chargers 6-5. We have to take into account the strength of schedules of these 2 teams to put those records in perspective. Cincy had played the 31st rated schedule so far this season including games vs Chicago, Jacksonville, NY Jets, and Detroit – all ranked 25th or lower in NFL team DVOA with the last 3 listed ranking 29th, 30th, and 31st . Despite that, the Bengals lost 2 of those games vs the Bears & Jets and barely squeaked by the Jags by 3 points. The Chargers have played the 2nd most difficult schedule in the NFL to date. Despite the schedule disparity, LA has the better YPG differential (+33 to +5) and the better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.3). LA has been a solid road team with a 3-2 SU record this year and 21-10-3 ATS as a road dog the last 3 seasons. We expect LA QB Herbert to have a big day vs the 25th ranked Cincinnati pass defense. Take the points. |
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12-04-21 | Clippers v. Kings +1 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings pick’em over LA Clippers, 10:10 PM ET - This is an interesting scheduling situation as these two teams just met on December 1st with the Kings winning on the road 124-115. Since then, the Kings have been off and resting while the Clippers are coming off an emotional game against the Lakers last night. L.A. is their 4th game in five nights and the second of a back-to-back so fatigue becomes a factor. In fact, the Clippers are 0-4 ATS their last five games when playing without rest. The Clippers have played a home-heavy schedule this season with 13 of their last 15 played on their home court, the two road games they played in that stretch were losses at New Orleans and Memphis. The Kings are the 7th highest scoring team in the NBA and are capable of scoring with anyone. The Clippers are 19th in scoring and the 20th ranked shooting team in the league. Scheduling favors the Kings here to get a solid home win. |
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12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
#320 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -3 over Wake Forest, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Two great offenses face off here with both Pitt & Wake averaging 43 PPG on the season. When we move to the other side of the ball, Pitt has a big advantage. Pitt ranks 49th nationally in total defense while Wake ranks 101st. Even more importantly, the Panthers rank 38th in YPP allowed (5.1) and the Deacs rank 94th in that key stat (5.9). Pittsburgh’s YPP differential this year is +1.3 which ranks them #1 in the ACC tied with NC State. WF has a YPP differential of just +0.3 which puts them behind Pitt, NC State, Clemson, Louisville, UNC, Miami, FSU, and Syracuse in the ACC alone. Wake has 2 losses on the season getting dominated in the trenches by Clemson (lost by 21 points) and losing at home to UNC. Pittsburgh beat both of those teams by 10 and 7 points respectively outgaining those 2 foes by more than 200 yards combined. Speaking of common opponents, these 2 teams have had 5 this year (Clemson, UNC, Syracuse, Duke and UVA). Pitt was 5-0 SU in those games with an average winning margin of +14 and an average YPG margin of +110. WF was 3-2 in those games with an average winning margin of +7 and an average YPG margin of +34. It was pretty clear to us watching these teams all season + the obvious key stats that Pitt was the better team this season. The Panthers have a significant advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Their defense allows only 2.8 YPC while Wake gives up over 5 YPC. Pitt is also outstanding at putting pressure on the QB (1st nationally in sacks per game and top 10 in sack percentage) which is key to beating WF. In their worst overall performance this year vs Clemson the Deacs allowed 7 sacks and were outgained by 137 yards. We see similarities to this match up with the exception that Pitt has a MUCH better offense than Clemson. We like Pittsburgh to win this game by more than a FG. |
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12-04-21 | Bulls +3 v. Nets | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Chicago Bulls +3 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - The Bulls have been one of the biggest surprises this season with a 15-8 SU record which includes an 8-4 mark on the road. Chicago has the 6th best average road differential away from home at +4.6PPG which I right behind the Suns. The Bulls are 5th in road offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. Brooklyn is 8-4 SU on their home court, but their average MOV is only +1.8PPG. They are bottom ten in the league in OEFF at home and 8th in DEFF. Brooklyn is coming off a hard-fought game last night against the Wolves which saw their two main players (Durant and Harden) log over 35 minutes. That’s key here considering they have injuries and lack depth at the moment. The Nets are 2-1 ATS when playing without rest this season but their margin of victory is only +0.4PPG. The Bulls already have impressive road wins over some of the NBA’s elite teams (Celtics, Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets, Knicks) and can win this game outright tonight. Grab the points. |
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12-03-21 | Iowa v. Purdue -11.5 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11.5 over Iowa, Friday at 9 PM ET - This is a statement game for the Boilers. It’s their first Big 10 game of the season and a revenger at that after getting beat 70-55 @ Iowa in their only meeting last year. We have the Boilers currently rated as the #1 team in the nation right now. They are 6-0 on the season with an average winning margin of +28 points. That includes 3 top 40 teams as they’ve topped UNC, Villanova, and Florida State. At home they have won by the following margins - 28 (vs a very solid Florida State team), 57, 44, 25, and 29 points and all but one of those games was vs teams ranked inside the top 195. The Boilers rank #1 nationally in offensive efficiency, #2 in 3-point %, #2 in 2-point % and they make 76% of their FT’s. Iowa is 7-0 on the season but they’ve played just 1 team ranked inside the top 200 and that was a 1-point win vs Virginia who is solid but not great this season. Purdue has been home since November 21st while Iowa is playing their 2nd road game this week. We think the Hawks are overvalued right now. They are undefeated but lost 3 of their top 5 players from last year’s team including national player of the year Luka Garza. Purdue’s Mackey Arena has not been kind to the Hawkeyes as they’ve won just ONCE there since 2008 (1-11 SU record). The last 3 meetings Purdue has won by margins of 36, 16 and 22 points. Boilers roll to a big win here. |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints +5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +5 over Dallas, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Dallas is currently going through a Covid issue which will affect the team negatively this week. We’re not quite sure how much as of this writing but we know some key pieces to the puzzle are out. HC McCarthy and several assistants will not be able to participate in this game. We know the Dallas starting RT is out and we’re expecting more to come. WR Jones might return but he still is nowhere near 100% as he’s still under the weather. Dallas has had to conduct virtual practices this week so the prep for this game is out of whack as well. That will be a problem for a Cowboy offense that is playing the best defense they’ve faced in quite a while. The Saints rank 5th in the NFL DVOA defense and the last 5 teams Dallas has faced have defenses ranked 17th or lower and 4 of the 5 rank 24th or lower DVOA. Dallas has lost 3 of their last 4 games despite facing those defenses. This team is trending down. We realize the Saints have lost 4 in a row and are reeling as well. New Orleans has outgained 2 of those 4 opponents and 2 of the losses came by 2 points. They are also making a change at QB with a healthy Taysom Hill taking over which should give this team some life. He played very well in his 4 starts last season completing 71.9% of his passes during his four-game starting stint for 834 yards, 4 TDs and 2 interceptions. He also ran the ball 39 times for 209 yards and 4 touchdowns. New Orleans HC Payton has never lost 5 straight games and his record as a dog is a money making 47-25 ATS – including 7-2 ATS as a home dog since 2015. Off a terrible home performance vs the Bills on Thanksgiving Day, we like New Orleans to bounce back and keep this one close if not win outright. |
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12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks +2 over Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - We are betting value here with the Knicks as a home dog. These two teams met on Nov. 21st in Chicago and the Bulls were favored by -5.5-points and are now laying 2 on the road which doesn’t add up. New York was also just a +4-point dog at home against the Suns who have won 17 straight games. Chicago is off a home win, New York is off a road loss. We expect the revenge minded Knicks to get payback here. The Bulls have failed to cover here in 4 straight visits and are 3-7 ATS the last ten clashes. |
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12-01-21 | Kings v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6.5 over Sacramento Kings, 10:30 PM ET - This will be a tough spot for the Kings. The Kings are playing their 5th game in 8 days, 3rd in 4 nights and 2nd of a B2B. When playing without rest this season the Kings are 1-2 SU/ATS. The Clippers are rested and coming off two straight home losses but one was to the red hot Warriors. On Monday the Clippers were embarrassed at home by the Pelicans. Pels center Valanciunas had a monster 39/15 game. LA is solid off a loss with a 23-19 ATS record, their last 42 in that role with a +6.2PPG differential. The biggest difference between these two teams is on the defensive end of the court where the Clippers rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Kings rank 26th. Also, the Kings are the 25th worst 3-pt shooting team in NBA, Clippers 12th best. The Clippers have covered 10 of the last 13 meetings with the Kings. |
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11-30-21 | Pistons +9 v. Blazers | Top | 92-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +9.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - The Blazers are in a tough spot here coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Utah and playing their 5th game in seven days. Detroit was off on Monday after playing the L.A. on Sunday. The Pistons have been competitive in their two most recent road games losing by 4-points to the Lakers and 11 to the Clippers. If we look at the Blazers last four home games, all wins, but they took advantage of the Nuggets and 76ers with injuries and barely beat the Bulls and Raptors by 5-points each. Detroit is on a 4-1 ATS streak and continues to be undervalued by the oddmakers. Portland is 2-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -1.3PPG. Grab the points. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +1 | Top | 15-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
#274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +1 over Seattle, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We really like the way Washington is trending right now. They’ve won 2 straight games and actually outgained their last 4 opponents. Two of those games came vs Green Bay & Tampa Bay, two of the very best teams in the NFL. 3 of those 4 games were on the road. Their most recent home game was 2 weeks ago vs Tampa and Washington won the game by 10 points outgaining the Bucs by 47 yards. It was an ideal spot for Tampa as they were coming off a bye and had lost @ New Orleans heading into their week off. Needless to say a very impressive win for Washington. Their defense was top notch last year but struggled the first part of the season. They have really tightened up on that side of the ball limiting their last 4 opponents to an average of just 286 YPG. That includes holding Tampa to 273 yards and Green Bay to 304 yards. That’s bad news for a Seattle offense that is struggling to say the least right now. The Seahawks have scored a grand total of 13 points the last 2 weeks combined. Russell Wilson is obviously not 100% and can’t perform at the level he is used to. Since his return Wilson has led Seattle on 20 offensive possessions and they’ve scored 1 TD. Last week they lost 23-13 at home vs Arizona with Colt McCoy at QB for the Cards. The Hawks have lost 5 of their last 6 games with their only win coming vs Jacksonville. They’ve also been outgained in 9 straight games. On the season the Seahawks are getting outgained by 103 YPG (worst differential in the NFL) and they rank 30th in total offense and 32nd in total defense. We like Washington to win this game at home. |
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11-29-21 | Iowa v. Virginia +1.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia +1.5 over Iowa, Monday at 7:00 PM ET - We understand Iowa is looking great early in the season with a 6-0 record. They’ve played all of those games at home and haven’t faced a single team ranked inside the top 200. The best defense they’ve faced was ranked 168th in efficiency and 5 of the 6 defenses they’ve faced rank 200 or lower. Tonight comes a whole different animal. Iowa is on the road for the first time and facing one of the top defenses in the country. UVA ranks 25th in defensive efficiency and they are playing better than that ranking right now. After a rare rough start to the season on the defensive end, they have held their last 4 opponents to 0.70, 0.71, 0.84, and 0.85 points per possession. That includes games vs Power 5 opponents Providence and Georgia. We’re not sure what to make of Iowa quite yet. We feel they are overvalued right now for sure. The Hawkeyes lost 3 of their top players from last year’s team including Luka Garza who was national player of the year. Our ratings have UVA as the favorite here. The Cavs have only been a home dog FOUR times since the start of the 2011 season (vs UNC (twice), Duke, and FSU). They are 4-0 ATS in those games and they are 59-7 SU at home their last 66. We like the value here with Virginia as a home dog. |
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11-28-21 | Bucs v. Colts +3.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 14 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Indianapolis Colts +3.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM ET - Indy is quietly putting together a solid late season surge with a 5-1 SU record their last six games, 3 straight wins. The lone loss in that stretch came in OT against the 8-3 Titans. In that stretch of games, other than the win against Buffalo last week, the wins have come against Jacksonville, the Jets, San Francisco and Houston. Granted, those last 4 teams have a 11-29 SU record, but a win is a win in the NFL. Last week Colts RB Jonathan Taylor had a huge game against the Bills with 185-rushing yards and 4 TD’s and those numbers came against a Buffalo defense that was #1 defensive DVOA. The Colts average 5.2-Yards Per Rush which is tops in the NFL with Cleveland. When we look at raw efficiency numbers, we find these two teams are very close. The Colts defensive DVOA is 9th, Tampa Bay is 7th. Indianapolis is 11th in offensive DVOA, Tampa Bay is 1st. The Bucs have been favored in their last five road games and have yet to cover and have lost 3 of those games outright. The Colts are on a 4-0 ATS streak as a dog. |
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11-28-21 | Jets v. Texans -2.5 | 21-14 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Houston Texans -2.5 over NY Jets, 1 PM ET - It’s the battle of the 2-8 teams Sunday when the Jets travel to Houston to take on the Texans. This is not a sexy NFL game by any means, but we bet the games on statistics not style or the logos on their helmets. Houston is coming off a solid road win in Tennessee but only managed 190-yards in the win. That was a result of short fields and great scoring opportunities as Titans turned the ball over 5 times. The Texans are much better with veteran QB Taylor under center, and it shows with their 2-1 SU record with him as the starter. The Jets are forced to go back to rookie QB Zach Wilson who is coming off an injury and has struggled this season with the 31st worst QBR rating in the league. The Texans secondary picked off Titans QB Tannehill 4 times last week and could have another big day against Wilson who has 4 TD’s to 9 INT’s on the season. The biggest difference between these two teams is on the defensive side of the football as the Jets are last in the league in most categories, including total DVOA. The Texans have the 10th best defensive DVOA in the NFL. New York is 0-4 SU on the road this year with a negative differential of minus -21.8PPG. The Texans get a solid home win here. |
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11-28-21 | Eagles -3.5 v. Giants | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 over NY Giants, 1 PM ET - The Giants just fired their offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and have a short week to prepare for the surging Eagles who have won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The key in this game will be the rushing attack of the Eagles. Going into last week’s game the Saints had the #1 ranked rushing defense in the NFL allowing 73RYPG but the Eagles pounded them on the ground for 242-rushing yards on 50 carries. Philadelphia has morphed into a solid running team with over 176 rushing yards in four straight games, over 216 in three of those. If the Eagles were able to rush for over the #1 ranked Saints defense last week, what will they do against a Giants rush defense that is 23rd in the league allowing 120RYPG and 4.4-yards per carry. These two teams are even in terms of defensive DVOA but the Eagles rate much better offensively with the 7th best DVOA offense compared to the Giants 27th ranked unit. Going back to 2016 the Eagles have beaten the Giants 9 of ten times and eight of those wins came by 3 or more points. Back Philadelphia as a short road favorite. |
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11-27-21 | UTSA v. North Texas +10.5 | Top | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
#190 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +10.5 over Texas San Antonio, 2pm ET - This is going to be a tough spot for UTSA as they are off a HUGE win over UAB, the perennial power in the Conference last week, and have a date in the Conference Championship next week. The Roadrunners dramatic win last week came with a TD pass with just .03 seconds on the clock. UTSA was outgained by 100-yards by UAB in that game and gave up over 220-rushing yards. Next week UTSA will play the winner of the Marshall/Western Kentucky game for the CUSA title which makes this game much less important. North Texas can qualify for a Bowl game with a win here and have a key factor on their side in this matchup. We mentioned UTSA allowed over 220-rushing yards to UAB, well North Texas has the 4th best rush offense in the nation at 237.5RYPG. The Eagles are playing well right now having won 4 straight games and covering 7 of their last eight. The undefeated Roadrunners are a road favorite for just the 3rd time since 2018, are overvalued, and laying double digits on the road. Easy buy with the home team North Texas. |
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11-26-21 | Raptors v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Raptors who are coming off a solid road win, while the Pacers are off a disappointing OT home loss to the Lakers. This will be the Raptors 6th straight road game and they are just 2-4 SU in those recent away games. Indiana is 4-1 SU their last five home games and also 3-1 ATS this season at home when off a loss. These two teams have met twice already this season with the Raptors winning both meetings so we expect the revenge minded Pacers to get a solid home win here. |
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11-26-21 | TCU v. Iowa State -14.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
#140 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -14.5 over TCU, Friday 4:30 PM ET - Vegas is begging us to bet on TCU here and we won’t bite. The Horned Frogs are attracting a lot of public action, yet the line is not fluctuating down. TCU has had a disappointing season which cost longtime head coach Gary Patterson his job and has Jerry Kill as the interim coach. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 3-point win over 2-9 Kansas who has an average +/- on the season of minus -22.8PPG. TCU has been blown out on the road this season by 46 at Oklahoma State, by 19 at Kansas State and 21 at Oklahoma who are all on par with this Iowa State team. The Cyclones are a disappointing 6-5 this season, but they are much better than their record indicates. Even with 5 losses, ISU has a +10.3 average MOV which is incredible. Iowa State has a bad taste in their mouths after two straight 1-score losses on the road and will look for atonement at home. ISU is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +/- of +14.8PPG. Iowa State has a top 50-offense in several key statistical categories and should have success moving the ball against a TCU defense that ranks 113th in yards allowed per game at 454. On the other side of the football the Horned Frogs will have a tough time moving it against the top 10 defense of the Cyclones. This one has all the makings of a blowout. |
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11-26-21 | Alabama -6.5 v. Drake | Top | 80-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
#865 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -6.5 over Drake, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We like the value with Bama here coming off their first loss of the season yesterday. We have the Tide as a 9 point favorite and the line is sitting at -6. Alabama has top 10 talent and they’ve proven that this year with blowout wins over solid competition. Prior to losing 72-68 vs Iona yesterday, the Crimson Tide had faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 135 this season and destroyed all of them. They beat La Tech (2nd highest rated team in Conference USA / 24-8 record last year) by 29, topped Oakland (highest rated team in the Horizon) by 27, and beat South Dakota State (by far the highest rated team in the Summit) by 16. Yesterday they ran into a senior dominated Iona team that had their eyes set on this game after losing to Alabama in the first round of the NCAA tourney last season. Bama led for most of the game but a late run by Iona got the tight win. We respect Drake as one of the top mid majors this season but they’ve struggled with the 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced this year losing yesterday to Belmont and struggling to beat Richmond at home by 3. The Bulldogs have relied heavily on the 3 point shot this season (37% of their points / 71st nationally) but today the face one of the best teams in the nation at defending the arc. The Tide currently rank 13th in the nation allowing just 23% from deep and it’s no fluke as they ranked 10th in the country in the same category last year. Drake is coming off a great season in 2020, however they didn’t face a single top 100 team in the non-conference last year and the best team in their league, Loyola Chicago, beat them in 2 of their 3 match ups last year. Both Loyola wins were by double digits and Drake’s lone win vs the Ramblers was by 1 point. Drake runs into a buzzsaw here vs one of the more talented teams in the country. Lay it with Alabama. |
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11-26-21 | Boise State -2.5 v. San Diego State | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 46 m | Show | |
#119 ASA PLAY ON 8* Boise State -2.5 over San Diego State, Friday at 12 PM ET - Fishy line here with Boise (7-4) favored @ San Diego State (10-1) with the Aztecs playing for the MWC West title. We agree that Boise should be favored but to most this looks like any easy play on SDSU. Boise started the season a little slow but they’ve kicked it in gear and are playing as well as anyone in the conference. They’ve won 5 of last 6 with only loss vs Air Force. The Broncos have also shown they can get it done on the road with wins @ BYU, @ Utah State, @ Fresno State (blowout), and @ Colorado St. After struggling to run the ball early in the year they’ve really started to become balanced offensively running for 178, 187, 160, and 239 last 4 games. SDSU is very good defensively but their offense is not. They rank 114th overall and 125th in passing. When they’ve played step up games vs the other top teams in the MWC West the Aztecs lost by 10 at home vs Fresno and beat Nevada at home on a last second FG. In their last 4 games with San Diego State making their title push they beat Hawaii by 7 but were outgained in that game, lost by 10 at home vs Fresno, beat Nevada at the buzzer at home, and struggled with UNLV winning by 8 last week but getting outgained by 100+ yards. Boise gets the win and cover in this one. |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
#112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -2 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ve kept a close eye on Ole Miss for a number of weeks now. We used their game vs Vandy Under last week and cashed easily. The Rebels are running out of gas. They are now playing their 9th consecutive week and now on a short week on the road. This team is banged up at a number of positions including QB where Matt Corral has not been able to practice which has limited Lane Kiffin’s game planning to his own admission. They struggled a bit last week beating Vandy by 14 (Ole Miss was favored by 35) and that was a Commodore team that had lost their first 6 SEC games by an average of 26 points including a 45-6 loss to Mississippi State. Because this team is fatigued, their scoring has dropped drastically especially in the 2nd half where they have scored a grand total of 44 points over their last 6 games (7.3 PPG in 2nd half during that run). Speaking of the Bulldogs, they are peaking right now which can’t be said about the Rebels. They have won 6 of their last 7 games with their only setback during that run coming @ Alabama. Throw out that game and MSU has outgained their last 6 opponents by an average of 203 YPG. While Ole Miss QB Corral gets most of the press, how about the run by MSU QB Rogers? He is completing 80% of his passes with 20 TD’s over the Bulldogs last 5 games. They have outgained every SEC opponent they’ve faced with the exception of Bama. MSU’s offense is rolling right now as we discussed and their defense gives up a full 100 yards less per game than Mississippi. This is a rivalry revenger as MSU lost @ Ole Miss last season 31-24. We like MSU to win this one and we’ll lay the small number. |
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11-24-21 | Hawks -3.5 v. Spurs | 124-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
ASA NBA WEDS 8* Atlanta Hawks -3.5 over San Antonio Spurs - Two teams streaking in opposite directions – The Hawks have won 5 in a row, all by double-digits, San Antonio has lost 5 in a row by an average of 15PPG. Atlanta has the 5th best OEFF numbers in the NBA at 1.125PPP whereas the Spurs average 1.055PPP which ranks 25th. Defensively the Spurs rank 15th in DEFF, the Hawks 27th but in their last five games the Spurs have slipped to 26th in DEFF, the Hawks are 13th. The Hawks have some horrendous road numbers but they’ve played a brutally tough schedule away from home. Of their 9 road games only 1 has come against a team with a losing record. San Antonio is 2-5 SU at home this season without a win over a team with a winning record. Atlanta 5-1 ATS their last six as a favorite / Spurs 1-4 ATS their last five as a dog. |
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11-24-21 | Bruins -1.5 v. Sabres | Top | 5-1 | Win | 110 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo Sabres, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - Situations just do not come along much stronger than this one. High quality Bruins team off a rare 4-0 shutout loss is facing a slumping Sabres team that can not keep the puck out of their own net. Buffalo has lost 9 of its last 11 games. Also, the Sabres have allowed 5 or more goals in 7 of their last 8 losses. That is just incredibly bad and when you watch this team they just seem so undisciplined and make so many mistakes. A disciplined and focused and angry team like Boston is going to take full advantage of those mistakes no doubt. Bruins come in highly motivated after the 4-0 loss to the Flames. Boston, prior to that defeat, had won 3 straight games and all 3 victories were by identical 5-2 scores. The Bruins are starting to get healthier too while the Sabres are still without injured goalie Craig Anderson and Aaron Dell has been named the starter for this one and he remains winless on the season and Buffalo has allowed at least 5 goals in all 3 of his starts. The Sabres have lost 11 of 15 games since their surprising 5-2 start so they are starting to look like the Sabres of old and that is bad news. The Bruins, on the other hand, before the loss to Calgary, have been looking again like the Bruins of old and that is good news for Boston fans. They are going to pound Buffalo into submission tonight with a convincing win. Road team in a blowout is highly likely per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals (for plus money return currently in the +110 range) with road favorite Boston is a high percentage value play here. |
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11-23-21 | Lakers v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 over LA Lakers, 7:35 PM ET - The Lakers will be without LeBron James in this game after he was ejected in the last game against the Pistons. The altercation was the main story from the other night but from our standpoint the issue was the Lakers were trailing the 4-12 Pistons by 15-points entering the 4th quarter. Prior to their win over the Pistons the Lakers had lost 4 straight road games by an average of 13PPG. LA was one of the best defensive teams in the NBA a season ago, but now rank 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Lakers offense has been even worse ranking 24th in offensive efficiency. The Knicks are coming off a disappointing road loss in Chicago in which they led big before late game collapse and a 6-point loss. The Knicks are 11th in offensive efficiency and 17th in DEFF but both of those rankings are better than the Lakers. The Knicks have covered 4 straight at home against LA and are on a 3-0 SU streak when home coming off a loss. |
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11-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -7.5 over Wisconsin, Tuesday at 5 PM ET - Houston was a Final 4 team a year ago and they return 4 of their top 7 players. They also have added 2 key transfers that play significant minutes including an All Conference caliber player from Texas Tech (Kyler Edwards). They dominated Butler from start to finish yesterday on their way to an 18 point win. Their game prior to that they crushed Virginia by 20 points – game was played last week. The Cougs are a veteran team with all juniors and seniors in the starting line up. Wisconsin is very young this year after losing 4 of 5 starters from a year ago. The Badgers got behind by 16 points yesterday vs Texas A&M and made a massive comeback to pick up an easy win. A&M wanted to run and they got this young Wisconsin team to play their pace early on before HC Gard made some adjustments to slow the game down. The Aggies offense does not excel in the half court and that allowed Wisconsin to make their comeback. Today they face a very physical, mature team that also likes to play a slow tempo. UW is not a great shooting team this year (284th in eFG%) and they are facing a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency after ranking 9th a year ago. The Cougars, on the other hand, are a much better shooting team ranking 10% better eFG% and 10% better from 3-point land when compared to Wisconsin. This is a very tough match up for a UW team that is still learning the ropes. Take Houston. |
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11-22-21 | Providence +1.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Providence +1.5 over Northwestern, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - The wrong team is favored in this one. Our power ratings have Providence as a 3 point favorite on a neutral court. NW is 4-0 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in college basketball thus far. The Cats have played all home games and haven’t faced a team ranked inside the top 260 and 3 of their 4 opponents were ranked outside the top 315. Providence is also 4-0 but 3 of their 4 opponents are ranked higher than anyone NW has played this season. The Friars went to Wisconsin and won which is never easy to do. The led the Badgers for most of the game and the final score of 63-58 was closer than the game really was as Providence led by 13 with 6:00 remaining. The Friars are a veteran team with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting line up. They are a very good interior offense (61% from inside the arc – 11th best nationally) with big man Nate Watson leading the way. He’s averaging 21 PPG and has made a remarkable 74% of his shots inside the arc (34 of 46). We don’t think NW has anyone that can guard him. Because Providence is more of an interior team, they get to the FT line a lot already getting to the stripe 52 more times than their opponents this season. With a solid defense on top of that (79th in defensive efficiency) this is a team that should play very well on the road this year as they don’t rely on 3-pointers. NW leaving their campus for the first time (game is in Newark NJ) playing a team that is far superior to anyone they’ve played will be a problem for the Cats tonight. Providence is the play here. |
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11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +11.5 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - Giants are coming off a bye and playing much better as of late. They’ve won 2 of their last 3 games with their only loss coming by 3 points @ KC. They outgained the Chiefs 5.4 YPP to 4.8 YPP in that game and that tight loss on the road is looking more impressive after KC demolished Las Vegas and handled Dallas in the 2 weeks after. They have been a big time money maker as a road underdog going 19-4 ATS their last 23. This year they are 3-1 ATS when getting points on the road. NYG QB Jones has been better on the road in his career than he’s been at home. This year in his 4 road games he has a higher completion percentage, higher yards per pass attempt, and a higher QBR away from home. WR’s Golladay and Toney are finally healthy and RB Barkley may play here. TB is coming off back to back losses getting topped New Orleans by 9 and Washington by 10. Brady put up his 2 lowest QBR ratings in those 2 games which included 4 interceptions. Those were vs pass defenses that rank 13th and 29th DVOA. The Giants defensive strength is vs the pass ranking 11th in the NFL DVOA so they match up very well with a TB offense that struggles to run (27th in rush offense). These 2 faced off last year and it was tight to the end with Tampa winning by just 2 points despite getting outgained by the Giants. NYG may not win this one but they’ll put up a fight and say within 11 points. |
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11-22-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 109-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Bulls as they are off a 5 game West coast road trip, then hosted the Knicks on Sunday night and now must face a rested Pacers team. Indiana is just 2-9 SU on the road this season, but they’ve been in tight games recently and have an average loss margin of -3.6PPG. Chicago is 5-2 SU at home this year with a +/- of 8.8PPG but this isn’t sustainable. The Bulls are better this season, but they were 15-20 SU at home last year with an average Margin of Victory of -1.7PPG. The Pacers are 6-2 ATS the last 8 meetings and catch the Bulls in a bad spot. Grab the points. |
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11-21-21 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 9-19 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not going to overreact to one big offensive performance from KC. They walloped Las Vegas last week but prior to that this team was averaging only 17 PPG their previous 5 games. This team still is a shell of last year’s Super Bowl team. The Chiefs YPP differential is -0.3 and their defense ranks 31st in YPP allowed at 6.1. That’s a bad match up vs a Dallas offense that is 1st in the NFL averaging 6.3 YPP and 1st as well in scoring at 31.6 PPG. KC is 0-9 ATS their last 9 home games (regular season) including 0-5 ATS this year losing by an average of 8 PPG to the spread. Dallas has been the better team all season long. They are the only team in the NFL ranked in the top 5 in both offense and defense DVOA. Their defense ranks 3rd DVOA vs the pass which matches them up very nicely with the Chiefs in this game. The Cowboys are also 3rd in the NFL in 3rd down defense with opponents converting only 32% of the time. That should keep Mahomes on the sidelines and the Dallas offense on the field in this one. KC continues to be overvalued based on their previous seasons. The better team is getting points here and we’re not passing that up. Take Dallas. |
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11-21-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Bills | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
#455 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indianapolis +7.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Colts are still undervalued after losing their first 3 games of the season. They have since won 5 of their last 7 with their 2 losses during that stretch both coming in OT @ Baltimore and @ Tennessee. They led both those games by 14 points or more so this team could easily be on a 7-0 run. Indy is playing as well as anyone in the AFC right now and getting a full TD here is too much. Buffalo started the season red hot but they’ve since lost 2 of their last 4 games. It’s been nearly a month since the Bills have played a formidable opponent as they’ve faced Miami, Jacksonville, and the NY Jets the last 3 weeks. They were favored by 13.5 or more in each of those games. They struggled with Miami (up just 10-3 entering the 4th quarter) and lost to Jacksonville. Buffalo has the league’s top point differential and they have a number of blowouts, but all but 1 of those easy wins have come against the worst teams in the NFL (Miami (twice), NY Jets, Houston, and Washington). They have played the NFL’s easiest schedule to date not facing a single team ranked inside FB Outsiders top 13 DVOA. Indy will be the highest rated team they’ve faced this season. This is also a revenger for the Colts as these 2 faced off here in Buffalo in the playoffs last year. The Bills won that game 27-24 but were -75 total yards, -67 rushing yards, and -5 first downs. Indy QB Wentz quietly having a very good season with 17 TD’s and 3 interceptions while RB Taylor has become the NFL’s best. We see this one tight throughout and we’ll grab the 7 points with the Colts. |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +1 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
#468 ASA PLAY ON 8* Minnesota +1.5 over Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Green Bay has overcome a number of key injuries but we think it catches up with them here vs an underrated Minnesota team. The Packers will be without their starting RB (Jones), their top pass rusher (Smith), another top pass rusher is questionable (Gary), their LT is out, starting TE out (Tonyan), top CB out (Alexander), 2 other CB’s are questionable (Stokes & King), starting WR doubtful (Lazard), and Aaron Rodgers has a bad toe and didn’t practice all week until Friday and he was still limited. Rodgers actually hasn’t participated in a full practice since October 22nd. His last 2 games were pretty average by his standards with a 60% completion rate, 2 TD’s and 1 interception. Minnesota is much better than their 4-5 record. 6 of their 9 games have come down to the final minute of play or went into OT. The Vikings lost 4 of those 6 games. Minnesota has played the tougher schedule (9th most difficult compared to GB at 22nd most difficult) and despite that the overall stats are very close with GB at +30 YPG and the Vikings at +15 YPG. FB Outsiders DVOA has Minnesota rated as the 9th best team in the NFL and GB rated at 12th. GB has been favored @ Minnesota 13 times since 1995 and covered only 4 of those games. The Vikes have been a home dog 22 times since 2012 and they’ve covered 17 of those games. We like the desperate home underdog that needs this win to get to .500 and keep their playoffs hopes from diminishing. |
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11-21-21 | Saints +3 v. Eagles | 29-40 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
#463 ASA PLAY ON 8* New Orleans +3 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Eagles went on the road and topped Denver last week which makes them 4-2 SU on the road this season. The problem is, they haven’t won a home game this season (0-4) and they are hosting a Saints team that is desperate off back to back losses. Last week New Orleans thoroughly outplayed Tennessee on the road outgaining the Titans by over 100 yards and +1.5 YPP but lost 23-21. That’s back to back 2-point losses for the Saints. Their QB Siemian has played very well in relief of Winston who went out a few weeks ago with a season ending injury. In his 3 starts he has thrown for over 700 yards with 5 TD’s and no interceptions. The Eagles have become the most run heavy team in the NFL over the last month with 156 carries over their last 4 games (39 carries per game). The Saints defense, one of the best in the NFL ranked 6th DVOA, is #1 DVOA vs the rush so they match up very well with this Eagle offense. New Orleans has bounced back nicely covering 4 in a row after a SU loss. The Eagles are 2-9 ATS their last 11 following an ATS win. The Saints are the better team in this game (8th DVOA compared to 15th DVOA for Eagles) and they are in must win mode off 2 losses. Take the points. |
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11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
#426 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Hawaii +2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 11PM ET - We have you covered for the late-night tilt on the Big Island in Hawaii when the Rams visit the Rainbow Warriors. This is a tough scheduling situation for Colorado State as they travel to Hawaii after suffering their fourth straight loss last week to Air Force. After prepping for the Triple Option attack, they now must adjust to playing the more traditional attack of Hawaii. CSU cannot make a Bowl game at this point, and they face one of the best teams in the Mountain West next week in Nevada. Hawaii on the other hand still has a shot at notching 6 wins on the season with a win here and the at Wyoming to become Bowl eligible. The Warriors are a much different team at home than they are on the road. Hawaii has been competitive at home against some of the league’s best teams losing by 7-points to San Diego State, 4 to San Jose State and beating Fresno State. Hawaii has some horrible defensive numbers overall, but at home they allow 5.2-Yards Per Play and 25.4PPG which are better than the national average. The Rams offense has struggled this season, especially on the road where they average just 4.9YPPL and 3.6-Yards Per Rush. In comparison, Hawaii averages 5.8YPPL at home and 5.0YPR. Colorado State should not be favored here and with nothing left to play for don’t be surprised if they view this trip to the islands as a vacation of sorts. Grab the points. |
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11-20-21 | North Carolina v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - The Boilers are loaded this year returning 4 of 5 starters from last year and many of their key reserves. They have 2 of the top players in the Big 10 in Trevion Williams and Jaden Ivey. We had them rated as the best team in the Big 10 entering the season and they haven’t disappointed. They have played 3 teams ranked inside the top 190 to start the season and won those games by 29, 25, and 44 points. Their most recent win was 96-52 vs Wright State, a team that is ranked as the top team in the Horizon League and finished last year with an 18-6 record. UNC, on the other hand, hasn’t played a team ranked inside the top 225 and has had some fairly close games winning by 7, 11 and 16 points. UNC is coming off an 18-11 season, however they were just 3-7 SU vs teams ranked inside the top 40 last year which we’d consider solid competition. Purdue is currently ranked 3rd in the country on Ken Pom. Purdue HC Matt Painter always has his teams playing solid, aggressive defense. After 3 games this year (vs better competition that UNC) the Boilers have allowed just 36% from the field and rank 19th in defensive efficiency. They have finished in the top 40 in defensive efficiency for 6 straight years under Painter. UNC, again vs all opponents ranked 200 or lower, are allowing almost 44% from the field (ranked 236th) and they have allowed at least 83 points in 2 of their 3 games. They now face a Purdue offense that has scored 90+ in every game this season. Purdue is the much better team here and we’ll lay the points. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
#357 ASA PLAY ON 8* Minnesota -7 over Indiana, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Indiana is in a free fall losing 6 straight games and they really have nothing left to play for. You could tell that last week when they hosted Rutgers and lost 38-3! That’s the same Rutgers team that lost 52-3 at home vs Wisconsin a week earlier. The Rutgers offense had not topped 20 points in a game since mid September and nearly put up 40 on IU. The Hoosiers are really banged up a QB with starter Penix still out, his back up Tuttle was re-injured last week and didn’t return leaving them with their 3rd and 4th team signal callers. Their offense has been terrible ranking 121st nationally and if you subtract their one decent offensive performance vs a bad Maryland defense, the Hoosiers have scored 0, 3, 6, 7, 7, and 15 points in Big 10 play. Minnesota’s defense is very good (6th nationally) and should shut this team down. The Gophs completely out played Iowa on the road last week outgaining them 409 to 277 and held the Hawks to just 70 yards on the ground (Minny had 190 rushing). A few bad breaks cost them that game. They already have blowout road wins @ Colorado & @ Northwestern along with a win @ Purdue. We like Minnesota to bounce back and win this one by more than a TD. |
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11-20-21 | Illinois +13 v. Iowa | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show | |
#367 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois +13 over Iowa, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - We like this spot for the Illini. They are coming off a bye and have been very competitive on the road beating Penn State & Minnesota, while losing by 4 @ Purdue. Iowa is coming off a big home win last week vs Minnesota but they were outplayed in that game getting outgained by 132 yards. The Hawkeyes switched QB’s with Padilla making his first career start but it wasn’t overly impressive as he led the to just 277 total yards and the Hawkeyes averaged only 2.8 YPC. We see them struggling again this week vs an underrated Illinois defense. The Illini have not allowed more than 24 points in their last 7 games and they are allowing just 16 PPG in Big 10 Play (in regulation). Tough to lay nearly 2 TD’s when your offense is ranked 122nd nationally which Iowa’s is. Illinois HC Bielema won’t be on the sidelines here (Covid) but we expect the Illini to keep this one tight in a low scoring game as they have for most of the Big 10 season. They shouldn’t need to do all that much offensively to stay within this number. Take the points. |
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11-19-21 | Thunder v. Bucks -12.5 | Top | 89-96 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -12.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - We can’t add a ton of statistical support to this game as the Bucks have been dealing with several key injuries to start the season with starters Lopez, Middleton, Holiday and Giannis all missing games. Statistically there isn’t support this season but last year the Bucks were 36-11 SU at home with an average margin of victory of +8.9PPG. OKC was 12-24 SU on the road a year ago with a negative differential of -9.2PPG. Recently the Thunder were just a 9-point home dog to Brooklyn and got beat by 24-points. The line on that game clearly shows us this number on the Bucks at home isn’t out of line. Let’s also consider Milwaukee was just a 9-point home favorite over the Lakers. The Bucks are still without Lopez but everyone else and they won’t be looking past this OKC team with Orlando on deck. Bucks by 20. |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7.5 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -135 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON Atlanta +7.5 over New England, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - The Patriots are quickly becoming a public team after winning & covering 4 straight. Around 75% of the tickets this week have come in on New England and the sportsbooks we track and that has pushed the line from a -4 opener to a full TD. Too much in our opinion and we’ll take the value on Atlanta. The Pats have been favored by -7 or more just twice this season vs the Jets & Texans. In their lone road game as a heavy chalk, New England had to come from down 22-9 @ Houston to squeak by with a 25-22 win. They have been a road favorite of a TD or more just twice since the start of last season struggling to beat a bad Houston team this year and doing the same vs the NY Jets last year (won by 3). Atlanta is coming in off an embarrassing performance @ Dallas losing 43-3. We love backing teams off blowout losses, especially as home underdogs. If they are facing a team off a blowout win (New England won by 38 last week) that’s even better. A buy low – sell high spot for sure. Prior to their loss @ Dallas, the Falcons had won 4 of 6 games with their losses during that stretch coming by 4 & 6 points. Since their 2 blowout losses to open the season vs Philly and @ Tampa Bay, the Falcons have adapted nicely to new head coach Arthur Smith’s systems on both sides of the ball. Since those opening 2 losses, the Falcons are 4-3 SU with 6 of those 7 games being decided by a TD or less (Dallas last week being the only outlier). Last week Atlanta was +8 @ Dallas and now they are +7 at home vs the Patriots? We’ll take the value with the home team on Thursday night. |
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11-18-21 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over LA Clippers, 8:10 PM ET - The Clippers are 9-5 SU on the season, but they’ve benefited from playing 10 of those games at home. The Clippers record is very misleading because of the favorable schedule, and they have just 2 wins over teams with a winning record and one of those came against Charlotte who is 9-7. One of LA’s losses this season came at home against this Memphis team 114-120. The young Grizzlies are still trying to figure out how to be more consistent, but they seem to get up for the league’s best teams. Memphis has beaten this Clippers team, the Warriors and Denver twice. LA has a long injury list right now with three key players banged up as Morris, Batum and Mann are on the injured list. Memphis comes into this game rested, off a solid home win and healthy. Our computers has the Grizzlies favored by 3-points in this game so grab the value with Memphis. |
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11-18-21 | Marquette v. Ole Miss -3.5 | Top | 78-72 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss -3.5 over Marquette, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for a very young Marquette team (352nd in experience – last in the nation) coming off a huge upset on Monday at home vs Illinois. The Golden Eagles were down 12 midway through the 2nd half and made a nice comeback to beat the Illini 67-66. Illinois played without their best player, All American center Cockburn. Illinois took 12 more shots, 7 more 3 point attempts, and creamed Marquette on the boards with a +20 differential. The Illini simply shot poorly hitting only 37% of their shots overall and 37% of their 3-point attempts. Prior to that win Marquette struggled at home vs New Hampshire (won by 5) and SIU Edwardsville (won by 11). In their game vs SIUE, who is ranked 321st nationally, Marquette never led by more than 13 in a game they were favored by 21. It was a 5 point game with 2:00 minutes remaining. SIUE followed that 11 point loss @ Marquette by losing to 357th ranked Chicago St by double digits. A Chicago St team that had a record of 10-92 the previous 4 seasons. Ole Miss has beaten two poor opponents handily. They are much more experienced starting 5 upperclassmen and they added some key transfers from Duke & Miami FL in the off season who are solid contributors already. They are a top notch defensive team (25th in defensive efficiency last year & 24th after 2 games this year) that will give this young Marquette team big problems on offense. We’ll lay the small number. |
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11-17-21 | Celtics v. Hawks -4 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -4 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - At first glance it looks like it would be hard to bet against the Celtics who are on 7-0 ATS streak but all streaks come to an end. Atlanta is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games – but the 6 spread losses came against some of the league's best teams. @Denver, @Utah, @Golden State, @ Phoenix, Utah and @ Brooklyn. Atlanta came home off that tough West coast trip and drubbed the Bucks by 20 and the Magic by 18 at home. The venue has a lot to do with this wager. The Hawks have the 4th best average point differential at home of +11.9PPG, with a 5-1 record. Last year the Hawks were 25-11 SU at home +6.3PPG. They had the 6th best offensive efficiency numbers at home (1.173PPP) and 13th best home defensive efficiency (1.109PPP). Boston 5-4 SU away this season but were 15-21 SU away from home a year ago with a negative differential of -0.1PPG. The Hawks have covered 23 of their last 27 home games as a favorite and the home team has covered 5 of the last 7 in this series. |
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11-16-21 | Seton Hall +9 v. Michigan | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
#643 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seton Hall +9 over Michigan, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This line opened up Michigan -10.5 and immediately dropped. We agree with the move as we pegged Seton Hall as a surprise team this season. The Pirates are 2-0 including a 36 point win over Ivy League favorite Yale who has a very solid and veteran team. The Hall is very deep this year with key transfers from Syracuse and USF joining the rotation. They already have 7 different players that have scored double digits this year (in 2 games) and head coach Willard will go 10 deep. They also match up well with Michigan’s top player, big man Dickinson, as the Pirates can run 4 solid big men at him throughout the game. Michigan is also 2-0 but they lost many key players from last year’s team (Livers, Smith, Brown, Wagner, and Davis) and might be a bit overrated entering the season. They struggled at home with Buffalo already this year winning by 12. The Bulls shot just 41% in that game and just 18% from 3 but were able to hang around despite Michigan making 54% of their shots and 40% of their 3’s. The Wolverines have also been terrible at the FT line this year making only 35 of their 62 attempts (56%) which could be their downfall in a tight game. Seton Hall keeps this close and covers. |
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11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -3.5 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We like the better team here coming off a very deceiving loss last week. The Rams played host to the Titans, who have now won 5 straight games, and dominated the stat sheet. They lost the game but LA was +1.2 YPP, +1.8 YPC, and +0.6 yards per pass attempt. Two huge turnovers did them in with QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to TD. The Rams seem to have very little home field advantage (3-2 record) so on the road, where they are 4-0 this season, we can pick up some nice value. San Fran, on the other hand, hasn’t won a home game yet this season (0-4) losing those games by 2, 7, 12, and 14 points. Last week’s loss was very telling. The Niners were in must win mode at home vs Arizona, who was playing without their QB Murray or their top WR Hopkins. Cardinal back up QB McCoy shredded the SF defense completing 85% of his pass attempts in that game. Arizona outgained the Niners by 100 yards en route to a 31-17 win. That same Cardinal team with McCoy at QB was dominated at home yesterday by Carolina losing 34-10 and they were held to just 3.2 YPP. Rams HC McVay is fantastic off a SU loss with a 16-6 spread mark in that situation. SF, on the other hand, has been a big time money burner at home with a 13-22-1 ATS mark since Shanahan took over as head coach. The 49ers have 3 wins this season vs Detroit, Chicago, and Philly who have a combined record of 7-20. When they’ve had to step up in class SF’s hasn’t been able to get it done. On top of that, this is a double revenger for the Rams who were favored in both games last year vs San Francisco and lost. We like LA tonight. |
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11-15-21 | Pacers v. Knicks -3 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3 over Indiana Pacers, 7:40 PM ET - This sets up nicely for a bet on the Knicks as they are off a disappointing loss at Charlotte in which they led big but blew it late for an 8-point loss. That was Friday night so they are well rested going into this home game. Indiana on the other hand is in a tough scheduling situation as they played 4 west coast games, came home, got a big win over Philadelphia and now go back on the road to face the Knicks. New York has covered 6 of their last eight when playing on 2 days rest and have covered 13 of the last 19 meetings with the Pacers in the Big Apple. We like the small home favorite here in New York to get back on track with a solid home win. |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders +2.5 | 41-14 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
#264 ASA PLAY ON 8* Las Vegas +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - KC continues to get the respect of the oddsmakers & bettors even though they are clearly nowhere near the team they were last season. After last week’s spread loss this team is now 3-16-1 ATS their last 20 games. That’s the definition of overvalued. Speaking of last week’s game, they played a GB team without Aaron Rodgers and were lucky to win. The Packers averaged 5.0 YPP with QB Love making his first career start and KC’s offense averaged only 3.8 YPP. GB’s turnovers and special teams gaffes cost them the game. After averaging 33.5 PPG over their first 4 games this season, the Chiefs have averaged just 17.4 PPG over their last 5. In the last 3 weeks they’ve scored just 36 TOTAL points for an average of 12 PPG. As a whole the Chiefs have a YPP differential of -0.5 (5.3 YPP offense / 5.8 YPP defense). Their record isn’t an illusion. They just aren’t very good this year. For comparison’s sake, the Raiders have averaged 6.0 YPP offensive while allowing just 5.1 defensively for a YPP differential of +0.9. The Raiders are coming off a loss @ NY Giants last week but don’t be deceived by the final score. Vegas outgained the Giants by 156 yards and pushed inside the NY 20-yard line SIX times in the game and came away with just 16 points. LV had a bye the week prior to playing the Giants so they should be well rested. KC, on the other hand, is playing their 10th consecutive week which takes a toll both physically and mentally. Vegas played KC as tough as anyone last year the first meeting by 8 and winning the second meeting by 4. It wasn’t fluky as the Chiefs only outgained the Raiders by 19 total yards in the 2 games combined. And that was a year when KC was a Super Bowl team. They are nowhere near that level this season and we like Las Vegas to get this won at home. |
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11-14-21 | Jaguars v. Colts -10 | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
#242 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indianapolis -10 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Colts are much better than their 4-5 record and they are playing their best ball right now. Let’s not forget this was a playoff team last season. This team started 2021 losing 3 straight games and have since won 4 of their last 6. Their only losses during that 6 game run were vs two of the top teams on the AFC, Baltimore & Tennessee. They could easily be on a 6-0 run right now as they led Baltimore by 16 points in the 4th quarter and lost in OT and led Tennessee by 14 points and lost in OT. The offense has scored at least 30 points in 4 consecutive games and they are averaging 34.2 PPG during that stretch. QB Wentz is playing very well with 14 TD’s and 2 picks over his last 6 and RB Taylor has turned into one of the best in the NFL. Jags are coming off a 9-6 home win vs Buffalo and a letdown on the road is in order here. The Bills were favored by 14.5 on the road in that game and now we’re getting Indy at -10 at home. Five of Jacksonville’s six losses have come by double digits with their average loss coming by 14 points. Just a week before upsetting the Bills at home, this team lost 31-7 @ Seattle with Geno Smith at QB for the Seahawks. The Jags really struggle to score points ranking 31st in the NFL putting up only 16.5 PPG. They score points on just 24% of their offensive possessions which is 31st ahead of only the Texans. Indy’s defense ranks 2nd in the NFL DVOA vs the rush which means in order for Jacksonville to stay in this game rookie QB Lawrence will have to play fantastic. We don’t see that happening. He ranks near the bottom of QB’s in completion % (30th) and has more interceptions than TD’s thrown. This game is eerily similar to the Colts most recent game. They were 10 points favorites at home vs the Jets who were just coming off a huge upset vs the Bengals. Indy won by 15 but they were in total control leading 42-10 late in the 3rd quarter. We see a similar result here. That game was on Thursday so extra time to rest & prepare for Indianapolis as well. Last year Indy was -15.5 at home vs Jacksonville (won by 14) and now we’re getting them at -10. Lay the points. |
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11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
#249 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Ask yourself this question. Why is Tennessee only favored by 2.5 to 3 points in this game? This is a Titans team that just won 4 straight games as an underdog vs the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams. And now they face the Saints a team that lost at home to Atlanta last week and are playing their back up QB? Fishy we say. The fact is the Saints match up really well vs this Tennessee team. New Orleans is #1 DVOA defense vs the run which is a huge part of the Titan’s offense, with our without Derrick Henry. Last week, their first game without Henry, the Titans rushed for only 69 yards on 2.7 YPC vs the Rams. Despite their win Tennessee was a bit fortunate in that game with Rams QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another interception that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to a TD. Tennessee was actually outgained by 1.2 YPP in that win. New Orleans QB Siemian has actually played quite well in this game and a half of work this year. He’s thrown for over 400 yards with 3 TD’s and no picks. While they did lose to Atlanta by 2 points this year, let’s not forget this Saints team beat Tampa Bay 36-27 a week early with Siemian getting most of the snaps. New Orleans is 2-0 ATS this year when coming off a SU loss and head coach Payton is 32-20 ATS in that role. The 7-2 Titans are a bit overvalued right now as their YPP differential is -0.3 and they are getting outgained in total yardage on the season. They won their first game without Henry due to LA turnovers. Now they face a motivated New Orleans team with a top notch defense off a loss. Sean Payton and the Saints are 8-1 ATS their last 9 as a road underdog winning 7 of those games outright. Take the points. |
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11-13-21 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Iowa | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +4.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Iowa started the season on fire and moved all the way up to #2 in the polls which we knew at the time was nowhere near an accurate perception of this team. They won their first 6 games of the season but that slate was quite easy. They played only 2 teams through the first 6 that currently have a winning record. Those games were tight wins vs Iowa State, who outgained Iowa by 166 yards, and Penn State, who had their QB Clifford leave with an injury with PSU up by 14 points. In those first 6 games, the Hawkeyes were plus a ridiculous 15 turnovers which masked their offensive problems and simply wasn’t sustainable. In their most recent 3 games the Hawkeyes have come back to the level we thought they would be playing at losing by 17 vs Purdue, by 20 vs Wisconsin, and beating a bad NW team by just 5 points. Iowa was outgained in all 3 of those games by a combined 300 yards. That includes last week’s tight win @ NW vs a Wildcat team that had been outgained by a combined 720 yards in their 5 Big 10 games prior to facing Iowa. The Hawkeye offense ranks 121st in total offense and 124th in YPP offense this season. They have scored just 31 total points in their last 3 games and now face a very good Minnesota defense that ranks 7th nationally in total defense and allows just 4.9 YPP. The Gopher defense has allowed more than 16 points just ONCE in their last 7 games. On top of that, Iowa will be most likely be starting Alex Padilla at QB as Petras is injured. Padilla has never started a game in college and while he played decent in relief last week, they still only scored 17 points vs a NW defense that ranks 92nd nationally. Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing home loss vs Illinois. The Gophs had their chances in that 14-6 loss and outgained the Illini. In that loss, Minnesota was shut out on downs twice inside the Illinois 25 yard line, threw a pick in Illinois territory and missed a FG. Prior to last week Minnesota won 4 straight games and they have outgained 6 of their last 7 opponents. The Gophers faced NW on the road a week prior to Iowa doing the same and won the game 41-14 outgaining the Wildcats by 200 yards – the same team the Hawkeyes struggled with last week. These defenses are both very good but we feel Minnesota has a big edge at QB with veteran Morgan vs a first time starter. They also have a large edge on the ground rushing for an average of 208 YPG compared to Iowa’s 114 YPG on the ground. This is expected to a be a low scoring grinder (total set at 37) and getting points, especially +5.5, will be key. We feel Minnesota has a great shot to win this game and if not we don’t see Iowa with their terrible offense winning by more than a FG. Take the points. |
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11-13-21 | Georgia State +10.5 v. Coastal Carolina | 42-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
#123 ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia State +10.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The big news here centers around QB Grayson McCall of Coastal Carolina who is out with an injured shoulder. McCall had led the Chanticleers to the 6th best completion percentage in the nation and an offense that was averaging 43.3PPG before his injury. Last week without McCall, Coastal managed just 28-points against Georgia Southern which ranks 99th in the nation in points allowed per game and 113th in yards given up per game. Coastal Carolina’s rush defense is 33rd in the nation allowing 129.9YPG but that unit is slightly overrated considering they’ve faced 5 rush offenses that rank 74th or worse. The Chanticleers will struggle to stop a Georgia State offense that is 12th in the nation in rushing at 222.3YPG. Coastal will lean on their rushing attack here too with a unit that averages 225YPG on the ground, but the Georgia State rush D isn’t as bad as their numbers would indicate. The Panthers have faced five rushing offenses that rank 32nd or better including #1 ranked Army. The Panthers are coming off a close 4-point loss against UL Lafayette and have covered 4 in a row. We predict a one score game here. |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming +14 over Boise State, Friday at 9 PM ET - This line is an overreaction to Boise’s big win last Saturday @ Fresno. Our power ratings have this line around 10 so we’re getting value with Wyoming. In Boise’s 2 other conference home games they were favored by 3 vs Air Force (and lost) and favored by 4 over Nevada (and lost). They are taking on a Wyoming team that is coming in with confidence after playing their best game of the season last week beating Colorado St on the road 31-17 outgaining the Rams by 120 yards. Wyoming’s offense has struggled this year but they made the switch at QB to Levi Williams which gives them more of a running threat and he responded with 116 yards on the ground last week and their highest point total since mid September. And that was vs a CSU defense that ranks 10th nationally. The Cowboys are also an attractive big underdog because their defense is outstanding. The rank 18th nationally allowing just 325 YPG and they have allowed more than 27 points only once all season. Boise’s home field advantage isn’t what it used to be having lost 3 games here already this season and Wyoming has played them as tough as anyone. 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less and we expect a closer than expected game here. Take the points. |
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11-12-21 | Blazers -6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -6.5 over Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - Let’s get this out of the way immediately, the Blazers haven’t won a road game this season 0-6. But the young Rockets have just one win on the season with a 1-10 SU record. Houston has the 5th worst average differential of minus -7.5PPG whereas Portland is +0.9PPG. Portland is far superior offensively with the 7th best offensive efficiency rating compared to the Rockets who rank 27th. Defensively these two teams are similar with Houston ranking 18th in defensive efficiency and Portland 23rd. The Blazers are off two tough road losses against a pair of the best teams in the West and step way down in talent here against the Rockets. Besides their lone home win of the season over a bad OKC team, the Rockets have lost every other home game by 8 or more points. Portland gets a big road win here. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -6.5 over North Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Love this spot for Pitt. UNC is off a back and forth energy draining 58-55 home win over Wake Forest last Saturday. The Heels trailed for much of the game, down by 18 points late in the 3rd quarter, but made a furious rally in the 4th scoring 24 points in a 10 minute span. That was facing a Wake defense that ranks 105th in total defense and the game was at home. They’ll have a much tougher time with this Pitt defense ranked 37th nationally. The North Carolina defense was shredded last week for over 600 yards and they were on the field for a whopping 90 plays so fatigue will be a factor here. The problem is, they face at Pittsburgh offense that is better than the Wake offense they faced last week. The Panthers rank #1 nationally is scoring averaging 45 PPG and #2 in total offense averaging 543 YPG. If the Heels couldn’t slow down the Deacs last week we don’t see them fairing very well in this contest. UNC has lost all 3 of their road games this season by 7 @ Va Tech, by 23 @ Georgia Tech, and by 10 @ Notre Dame. Pitt is significantly better than the first 2 listed and we have them power rated about 2 points better than ND on a neutral field. These teams have played a similar strength of schedule yet Pitt numbers are much better. The Panthers are +1.8 YPP, +1.1 YPC, +2.4 yards per pass attempt, and +198 YPG. UNC’s numbers are +0.9 YPP, +0.6 YPC, +1.5 yards per pass attempt, and +68 YPG. This Pitt team isn’t talked about much and they are flying under the radar. They continue to be undervalued covering 5 of their last 6 games by 81 points (average cover by 13.5 points). On the other side, North Carolina was an overhyped team coming into the season and they have not lived up to expectations. They are just 2-4 ATS their last 6 with their only covers coming vs a terrible Duke team and by a half point last week at home vs Wake. Pitt gets this one by double digits. |
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11-10-21 | Bucks v. Knicks -3 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks -3 over Milwaukee Bucks 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks benefit from rest while the Bucks are off a game last night in Philly and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. The Bucks are shorthanded without Middleton and Lopez out of the lineup and the lack of rest is magnified here. Milwaukee is 4-6 SU on the season and not playing well right now with offensive and defensive efficiency ratings 18th or worse. In comparison, the Bucks were the #1 DEFF team a year ago and 6th in OEFF. New York is 3rd in offensive efficiency this season and have improved dramatically on that end of the court. The Bucks struggled to beat a shorthanded 76ers team on Tuesday night and now face a Knicks team that beat them by 15 points in Milwaukee on Nov 5th. Milwaukee is on a 0-4 ATS streak when playing without rest and New York has won 3 of the last four meetings. The bet here is the Knicks as a short favorite. |
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11-09-21 | Hawks v. Jazz -7.5 | Top | 98-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 9:10 PM ET - Atlanta is coming off a big game in Golden State last night while Utah is rested but off two straight losses. The Jazz beat the Hawks last week in Atlanta by 18-points but then lost in Miami and then suffered an embarrassing loss at Orlando. In their previous meeting the Jazz beat Atlanta handily without their best player Donovan Mitchell. Atlanta comes into this game playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four nights. The Hawks are 6-10-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. The Jazz have the 3rd best overall Margin of Victory average this year at +9.1PPG, which improves to +13PPG at home. Given the scheduling we won’t be scared off by this number and will back the home team minus the points. |
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11-08-21 | Hawks +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors have the best record in the NBA at 8-1 SU while the Hawks are a disappointing 4-6 SU. A major factor in those results are the strength of schedule for both teams as the Warriors have played the 28th easiest schedule, while the Hawks have faced the 8th toughest. In their last six games the Hawks have faced Phoenix, Utah, Brooklyn, Washington twice and Philadelphia. They are coming off a loss Saturday in Phoenix by 4 as a +3.5-point dog. In comparison the Warriors last four wins have come against Houston, New Orleans, Charlotte and OKC who are a combined 10-30 SU and none have a winning record. Despite the tough schedule the Hawks have a negative differential of -2.2PPG which will get us a cover here. Golden State is coming off a game last night and will be playing their 3rd in four days. Golden State was 6-9 ATS last season when playing without rest with a negative differential of -5PPG. Easy call with the Hawks here. |
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11-07-21 | Vikings +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +6.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Vikings have a record of 3-4 but they are better than their record. Their 4 losses have come by a combined 15 points with their biggest loss coming by 7 points. They were ahead or tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of those losses. Minnesota currently has a + point differential along with a positive YPP & YPG differential. Baltimore is coming off a bye and a blowout loss @ home vs Cincinnati. While many may think this is a great spot to jump on them, we think the Ravens are overvalued. 3 of their 5 wins have come by 1 point vs KC (not as impressive as it once seemed), winless Detroit by 2 points, Indy in OT in a game they trailed by 16 in the 4th quarter. They also beat a bad Denver team and their lone impressive win was vs the LA Chargers. The Raven defense ranks 30th in the NFL in YPP allowed and they are giving up 65 more total yards than they were last season. Dating back to the 2016 season, Minnesota is 21-10-1 ATS when coming off a SU loss – they loss at home vs Dallas last weekend. We project this one to go to the wire. Getting nearly a TD with Minnesota is a solid value. |
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11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
#394 ASA PLAY ON 8* Purdue +3 over Michigan State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Sparty is obviously in a tough spot on the road here coming off their biggest win in a number of years topping arch rival Michigan last week. It was a game MSU trailed by 16 late in the 3rd quarter, were outgained 552 to 395 and allowed a Michigan offense that was averaging 208 YPG passing in Big 10 play to throw for over 400 yards. Not surprising as Michigan State’s pass defense is terrible ranking 129th out of 130 FBS teams. That’s bad news this week vs a Purdue offense that loves to throw the ball and they are good at it ranking 14th nationally averaging 307 YPG through the air. MSU has had a number of tight games in which they were actually outplayed on the stat sheet. They’ve actually been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games. They struggled with Nebraska at home winning in OT and nearly were upset @ Indiana winning by just 5 points. While they are undefeated this team is not playing to that level having outgained their opponents by just +22 YPG this season. They face a solid Purdue team that comes in off a nice road win @ Nebraska. The Boilers also dominated Iowa a few weeks back 24-7 giving the Hawks their first loss of the season. They are very good defensively ranking 18th nationally and give up 110 fewer YPG than the Michigan State defense! The Spartans are going to get picked off very soon and we feel it happens right here. We like Purdue +3 at home. |
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11-06-21 | South Alabama v. Troy -3.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
#382 ASA PLAY ON 8* Troy -3.5 over South Alabama, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this situation for Troy. They should come in plenty rested for this match up. Their most recent game was a road loss @ Coastal Carolina on Thursday, October 28th and prior to that game they had a bye week. So they’ve had 10 days to prepare for this game and technically prior their game on Saturday, the Trojans have played 1 game in the last 19 days. South Alabama will be playing their 6th consecutive week as their bye was back in September. Troy has only played 1 home game since September 11th as 5 of their last 6 games have been on the road. They did win their only home game during that stretch and we expect them to be motivated for this rare game at home. We were impressed with their game @ Coastal Carolina, one of the top teams in the country currently ranked #21 in the AP poll. Troy took them to the wire on the road losing 35-28. After their turnover ridden 23-14 loss @ South Carolina in early October, a game Troy was actually favored by -2 points, the Trojans made a switch at QB as starter Powell was turning the ball over too much. Since switching to new QB Watson, they have won 2 of 3 games with their only loss coming to the aforementioned Coastal Carolina and he has completed almost 70% of his passes with 6 TD’s and 0 interceptions. South Alabama is definitely improved this season but they have been a very poor road team. Not only historically, but this year as well. They have played just 3 road games this year all vs poor competition. Those road game came vs UL Monroe (126th ranked in our power ratings out of 130 teams), Texas State (ranked 125th) and Bowling Green (ranked 114th). Despite the poor competition the Jaguars actually lost 2 of those games with their only road win coming @ Bowling Green by 3 points. Even in their win @ BG they were trailing by 7 points with 1:40 remaining in the game and scored 10 points in the final 1:39 to win. South Alabama was outgained on a yards per play basis in each of those 3 road games and by a combined 6.3 YPP to 4.9 YPP in those games. Taking a look at the Jaguars road record going back a few years they are just 3-17 since the start of the 2018 season and their road points per game margin is -15.7. Last year Troy was -4 @ USA and won 29-0. The previous year the Trojans were -17.5 at home and won by 24 points. Value with the short home favorite here. Take Troy. |
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11-06-21 | Navy +21 v. Notre Dame | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
#379 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Navy +21 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is the epitome of a potential rush doubling underdog with a Navy team that is 15th in the country in average rushing yards per game at 224RYPG, while Notre Dame averages just 130RYPG (94th). This is not the best scheduling situation for the Irish as they come off two big games against USC and North Carolina with Virginia on deck. It will be easy to look past this Navy team that has just 2 straight up wins on the season. But a closer look shows us the Midshipmen are on a 5-1 spread run and still undervalued by the oddsmakers here. Navy had an impressive showing two games ago when they took Cincinnati to the wire before losing by a TD as a 28.5-point underdog. That same Cincinnati team beat this Notre Dame team a few weeks ago in South Bend. This is the largest spread of the season for Notre Dame, and we don’t feel they can distance themselves here against a pesky Navy team that has been beaten by more than 21-points just once this season and that was the first game of the season. The Irish have one win over 21 points this year and that was a fluke as Wisconsin gifted them 3 INT’s, two of which were pick 6’s late in the game. |
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11-04-21 | Celtics v. Heat -6 | Top | 95-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 pm ET - Miami continues to play at a very high level while Boston is not. The Heat are 6-1 SU on the season with their lone loss coming in OT in Indiana. Miami has the highest average point differential in the NBA at +16.7PPG, are 2nd in both offensive and defensive efficiency and enjoy a scheduling advantage of being off last night. Boston on the other hand is 19th in defensive efficiency and 21st in offensive efficiency with the 21st worst average point differential in the league. The Celtics are also coming off a game last night. Boston has 3 wins on the season and two of those have come against Houston and Orlando who a combined 3-13 SU this season. The Heat are on a 5-0 spread run while Boston is 0-5 ATS their last five as a road dog. Back the better team, laying a marginal number at home against an over-rated opponent. |
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11-03-21 | Hornets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 92-114 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:10 pm ET - If I gave you one guess who the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA is you’ll probably say Golden State. That’s a good guess, but the answer is actually the Charlotte Hornets at 41.1%. The Hornets are the highest scoring team in the league at 117.5PPG and look a little like the Warriors of old. Don’t get me wrong, the Warriors are still a upper echelon team but they’ve won a few close games with their of their wins this season coming by 8 points or less. Charlotte has quality wins this season against Portland and Brooklyn and are more than capable of winning this game outright. Last season these two teams played a pair of tight contests with the Warriors winning by 9 at home and Charlotte winning by 2 on their floor. The Hornets have covered 4 straight when coming off a loss and we’ll back them here with the points. |
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11-02-21 | Kings v. Jazz -9 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over Sacramento King, 9:10 PM ET - At first glance you might think this is a high number but in reality, it’s low based on their meeting on October 22nd when the Jazz were favored by 6-points in Sacramento. Utah won that game by 9-points. Utah is 5-1 SU on the season with the 2nd best average margin of victory at +12.8PPG. The Kings are 3-3 SU with a negative differential of minus -2.8PPG. These two teams are similar in terms of offensive efficiency, but the Jazz are far superior in terms of defensive efficiency as they rank 3rd while the Kings are 25th. The Kings have matchup issues here as they’ve lost 5 straight to Utah with last year’s three wins coming by 22, 49 and 16-points. Lay the points with Utah. |
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11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #542 Atlanta Hawks -5.5 over Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from last week when the Wizards beat the Hawks by 11-points in Washington. The interesting part of that games is the fact that the Hawks were -4-points IN Washington and are now laying -5.5-points here. The Hawks shot 55% in the game but the Wiz made 8 more free throws and 7 more 3-pointers. Atlanta then followed up that loss with a horrible showing against the Sixers and a 28-point loss. Back at home we like the Hawks to get a measure of revenge here against Washington. The Hawks are 2-0 at home this year with a 18-point and 26-point win. Atlanta was 25-11 SU last year at home with the 8th best average margin of victory at +6.3PPG. Washington is 17-22 SU their last 39 on the road. Expect a big game out of Trae Young and cast at home. Lay it! |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -114 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
#258 ASA PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -2.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Revenger from earlier this year for the Colts. They weren’t playing well at the time and lost 25-16 @ Tennessee. Indy has since started to play much better winning 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in a game they led by 16 in the 4th quarter. This is a rough spot for Tennessee. They are coming off back to back huge home games beating both Buffalo & KC. Now going on the road for the first time in 3 weeks. Their 3 road games haven’t been overly impressive. They lost at the NYJ giving the Jets their only win of the season. Their other 2 roadies were wins @ Seattle in OT (Tenn was down 24-9 at half), and they beat a bad Jacksonville team. They were outgained drastically in each of those games with a -1.2 YPP differential @ Seattle, -1.3 @ NY Jets, and -0.9 @ Jacksonville. We still feel the Titans are overvalued. They are 5-2 on the season yet their YPP differential is -0.4. DVOA agrees with us as they have the Titans ranked 20th in the NFL right now (Colts are 15th). Indy actually averages more YPP offensively (5.8 to 5.6) and allows less defensive (5.8 to 6.0). The Colts definitely have the better defense in this game and their offense is starting to come around. QB Wentz has been solid since getting over his early season injury throwing 8 TDs and no picks his last 4 games. RB Taylor has kept the offense very balanced averaging 138 total yards per game his last 4. With a record of 3-4 and a loss already @ Tennessee, this is a must win for the Colts at home. Lay it. |
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10-30-21 | Ole Miss v. Auburn -2.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
#196 ASA PLAY ON 10* Auburn -2.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Big mismatch situationally. Auburn is coming off a bye week where they were able to rest up and get healthy. Ole Miss will be playing their 5th straight week of brutally tough games without a break. That includes @ Bama, home vs Arkansas, @ Tennessee, home vs LSU, and now @ Auburn. The Rebel offense, while still good, has slowed down immensely since hitting their SEC slate. They were averaging 52.6 PPG in the non-conference but have been held to 31 points or less in 3 of their 4 SEC games. Their defense is among the worst in the nation ranking 100th in total defense and 98th in rush defense. The latter will be a problem here vs an Auburn rushing attack that puts up 198 YPG. The Tigers have a very solid offensive line and should dominated an Rebel defensive front that isn’t all that good and will most likely be worn down after the gauntlet they’ve faced over the last month. Auburn’s QB Nix looked great in his last game after getting a little extra motivation getting benched vs Georgia the previous week. He threw for 290 yards and had an 80% completion rate vs a solid Arkansas team. Auburn’s only 2 losses this year are at home vs Georgia (the best team in the nation) and @ Penn State when the Nittany Lions were at full strength. Ole Miss has played only 2 road games this season and one was a blowout loss @ Alabama and the other they had to hold on to be an OK Tennessee team 31-26. Night game in Auburn should be rockin’ and we’ll lay the small number. |
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10-30-21 | Washington State v. Arizona State -16 | 34-21 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
#160 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona State -16 over Washington State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We love this spot situationally for ASU. The Devils are coming off a loss @ Utah in mid October and then a bye last week. Their goal this year has always been to win the Pac 12 South and their loss @ Utah put that goal in jeopardy. Well the Utes lost last week vs Oregon State so now ASU is right back at the top of the P12 South tied for first. Head coach Herm Edwards wrote a letter to his captains during the bye week letting them know their goals were back in play and it was time to get back down to business. This team was rejuvenated over their bye week and we expect a great game from them at home on Saturday. Washington State is in a tough spot. Almost half their coaching staff, including head coach Rolovich, was fired last week and they went all in emotionally and physically last week to win one for those that were terminated. They played host to BYU and lost by 2. Our word is the Cougs put everything they had into that game. Not only will they be emotionally spent, this team will be playing their 9th straight weekend without a break. Off last weekend’s tight home loss, without many of their leaders on the coaching staff, they must go on the road to play ASU. We don’t expect WSU to play well on Saturday under the circumstances. They don’t match up well with ASU no matter the circumstances. The Sun Devils will control the trenches here. They run the ball very well at 205 YPG and Wazzou is 86th nationally at stopping the run. The Cougers allowed BYU to gash them for 238 yards on the ground last week and now they face a team that is better than BYU at running the ball. This isn’t the explosive offense that WSU has had in the past as they rank 90th in scoring at 24 PPG. They’ll have problems keeping up here. This game is being played in the afternoon and the temperatures in Tempe will be around 90 degrees which is also a big negative for this tired WSU team that is not used to the heat. This has the makings of an easy win for ASU and we’ll lay the points. |
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10-30-21 | Cincinnati -26.5 v. Tulane | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
#199 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cincinnati -26.5 over Tulane, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Cincy had a bit of a scare last Saturday beating Navy 27-20 as a 28 point favorite. Now they play a Tulane team we have rated lower than Navy but the spread is lower due to last week’s tight game. We expect a blow out here. Cincy head coach Fickell admitted he did not have his team prepared mentally for going on the road with a bullseye on their back facing a team they should destroy. The Bearcats didn’t play well and you can bet he’ll have them ready here. The 2 previous weeks they topped Temple 52-3 and UCF 56-21. This team needs style points and they proved in those game they won’t let up scoring TD’s 4th quarter of both of those games with huge leads. We project 50+ in this game for the Bearcats. They are facing a terrible Tulane defense that ranks 128th in both total defense and scoring defense (out of 131 teams). The Green Wave have allowed an average of 46 PPG vs FBS competition this year and in those 6 games they’ve allowed more than 50 points 3 times. Offensively Tulane has topped 21 points just twice in their last 5 games and in those 2 games they scored 26 vs SMU (84th ranked defense) and lost by 29 and they scored 29 vs ECU (104th ranked defense) and lost by 23. On top of that, there is a good chance their starting QB Pratt won’t play here. That would mean 3rd string freshman Kai Horton (back up is injured), whose thrown 3 career passes, would get the start. Not ideal vs the 9th ranked defense in the nation no matter which QB starts. Since topping FCS Morgan State back in early September, Tulane has lost 5 straight games by margins of 40, 7, 23, 18, and 29 points. Now they face a motivated top 5 team trying to impress for a run at College Football’s Final 4. This gets ugly. |
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10-30-21 | Iowa +3.5 v. Wisconsin | 7-27 | Loss | -116 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
#117 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iowa +3.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We’ll keep this one simple. Two poor offenses vs two top 10 type defenses. We don’t expect either team to have much success running the ball with Wisconsin’s defense allowing 1.9 YPC and Iowa’s allowing 2.7 YPC. Neither QB is great but we do trust Iowa’s Petras more than Wisconsin’s Mertz. Petras had a poor game 2 weeks ago at home vs Purdue with 4 interceptions but prior to that he had thrown 9 TD’s and 2 picks on the season. He at least gives the Hawkeyes a threat in the passing game averaging 190 YPG through the air. Mertz is a turnover machine. He has only 2 TD’s to go along with 7 picks & 4 fumbles on the season. He’s completed a total of 31 passes in his last 4 games. The Badgers have not threatened opposing teams in the passing game and don’t expect it here. This one looks like a low scoring slugfest (total set at 36) which may come down to turnovers. If that’s the case, while hard to project, we’d have to favor Iowa in that category. The Hawkeyes have forced 20 takeaways on the season and their turnover margin is +1.57 per game which is 3rd nationally. Wisconsin ranks 122nd in that stat at -1.00 per game. Possessions will be huge here and if Iowa can gain an extra possession or 2 that could be the difference. Much is being made of Wisconsin winning @ Purdue while Iowa lost at home vs Purdue the previous week. Let’s remember Iowa was coming off a HUGE game at home vs Penn State (an Iowa win) while Purdue was off a bye going into Iowa City. It was a perfect spot for the Boilers and we were on them. Last week Wisconsin caught Purdue off their huge win @ Iowa and took advantage of it. Here we get Iowa off a loss and coming in off a bye which is a great spot situationally. Even if the Badgers win which will be tough, this could very well be a 13-10, 16-13, 17-14 or 20-17 type game. Iowa is the play here. |
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ASA ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-21-21 | Pistons +7 v. Knicks | 91-105 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
12-21-21 | Xavier v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
12-21-21 | Seahawks +7 v. Rams | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
12-20-21 | Maryland-Eastern Shore +12.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 54-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
12-20-21 | Tulsa v. Old Dominion +9.5 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
12-19-21 | Mavs v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
12-19-21 | Falcons v. 49ers -9 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
12-18-21 | Oregon State -7 v. Utah State | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
12-18-21 | Knicks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
12-17-21 | St. Mary's -2 v. San Diego State | Top | 53-63 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-41 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
12-15-21 | Wizards v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 105-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
12-15-21 | Pacers -2 v. Bucks | 99-114 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
12-15-21 | South Dakota State v. Missouri State -2.5 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers +3 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
12-14-21 | Georgia State v. Mississippi State -9 | Top | 50-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
12-12-21 | Lions +11 v. Broncos | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
12-11-21 | Houston v. Alabama -1 | Top | 82-83 | Push | 0 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
12-11-21 | Navy +7.5 v. Army | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
12-11-21 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State -3.5 | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
12-10-21 | Lakers -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 35 h 27 m | Show |
12-09-21 | Texas v. Seton Hall +2.5 | Top | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
12-08-21 | Celtics v. Clippers -3 | Top | 111-114 | Push | 0 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
12-08-21 | Marquette +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
12-07-21 | Nets -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
12-07-21 | Bradley v. Toledo -6 | Top | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
12-06-21 | Illinois v. Iowa -2 | Top | 87-83 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
12-05-21 | Jazz -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
12-04-21 | Clippers v. Kings +1 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
12-04-21 | Bulls +3 v. Nets | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
12-03-21 | Iowa v. Purdue -11.5 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints +5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
12-01-21 | Kings v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
11-30-21 | Pistons +9 v. Blazers | Top | 92-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +1 | Top | 15-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
11-29-21 | Iowa v. Virginia +1.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Bucs v. Colts +3.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 14 m | Show | |
11-28-21 | Jets v. Texans -2.5 | 21-14 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
11-28-21 | Eagles -3.5 v. Giants | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
11-27-21 | UTSA v. North Texas +10.5 | Top | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
11-26-21 | Raptors v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
11-26-21 | TCU v. Iowa State -14.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
11-26-21 | Alabama -6.5 v. Drake | Top | 80-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
11-26-21 | Boise State -2.5 v. San Diego State | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 46 m | Show | |
11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
11-24-21 | Hawks -3.5 v. Spurs | 124-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
11-24-21 | Bruins -1.5 v. Sabres | Top | 5-1 | Win | 110 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
11-23-21 | Lakers v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
11-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
11-22-21 | Providence +1.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
11-22-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 109-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
11-21-21 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 9-19 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
11-21-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Bills | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +1 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
11-21-21 | Saints +3 v. Eagles | 29-40 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
11-20-21 | North Carolina v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
11-20-21 | Illinois +13 v. Iowa | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show | |
11-19-21 | Thunder v. Bucks -12.5 | Top | 89-96 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7.5 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -135 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
11-18-21 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
11-18-21 | Marquette v. Ole Miss -3.5 | Top | 78-72 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
11-17-21 | Celtics v. Hawks -4 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
11-16-21 | Seton Hall +9 v. Michigan | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
11-15-21 | Pacers v. Knicks -3 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders +2.5 | 41-14 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
11-14-21 | Jaguars v. Colts -10 | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
11-13-21 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Iowa | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
11-13-21 | Georgia State +10.5 v. Coastal Carolina | 42-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
11-12-21 | Blazers -6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
11-10-21 | Bucks v. Knicks -3 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
11-09-21 | Hawks v. Jazz -7.5 | Top | 98-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
11-08-21 | Hawks +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
11-07-21 | Vikings +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
11-06-21 | South Alabama v. Troy -3.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
11-06-21 | Navy +21 v. Notre Dame | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
11-04-21 | Celtics v. Heat -6 | Top | 95-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
11-03-21 | Hornets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 92-114 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
11-02-21 | Kings v. Jazz -9 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -114 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
10-30-21 | Ole Miss v. Auburn -2.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
10-30-21 | Washington State v. Arizona State -16 | 34-21 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
10-30-21 | Cincinnati -26.5 v. Tulane | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
10-30-21 | Iowa +3.5 v. Wisconsin | 7-27 | Loss | -116 | 21 h 30 m | Show |