#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* California -2 over Washington, Thursday at 11 PM ET - Cal has lost 8 straight games and now they are a favorite in this one. We actually have the Bears power rated as a 4.5 points favorite here so we like the value with the team coming off a big stretch of losses. They have a misleading 2-9 record in Pac 12 play as over half of those losses (5) have come vs the top 3 teams in the conference (UCLA, Arizona, and USC). They have lost 3 straight home games, however those were again vs the top teams in the Pac 12 (UCLA, Arizona, and USC). Prior to that the Bears had won 9 straight home games. Washington is 6-3 in conference play but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in league play having played Arizona just once and they have not faced USC or UCLA. The Huskies do have 2 conference road wins but those came vs Oregon State and Utah, the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. Their other 3 conference road games resulted in losses of 28, 16, and 14 points. UW just struggled big time with Utah at home over the weekend winning in double OT. At this number the oddsmakers are pretty much asking Washington to win on the road and they simply don’t shoot the ball well enough to be trusted here. They rank 312th or lower nationally in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. This has been a home team series with the host winning 9 of the last 10 outright and covering 7 in a row. Cal views this match up as a great chance to end their losing streak and they’ll bring a great effort at home tonight. Lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -3.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:40 PM ET - Man, I hate betting on the Lakers! LA is obviously a very popular and public team which means they more than likely are over-priced most nights. Since LeBron joined the Lakers, they are a money-burning 136-162-6 ATS (45.6%) which is the second worst spread record in the NBA since 2018. Portland has been horrible on the road this season though with a 7-17 SU record and the 4th worst average loss margin of -8.9PPG. They rank 25th in offensive efficiency on the road and last in road defensive efficiency. The Lakers have played a large portion of the season without Anthony Davis, so their home statistics are somewhat misleading. In games he’s played at home they are 9-7 SU. Yes, the Lakers will be without James here, but the Blazers continue to play and lose without their best player Lilliard. LA has covered 4 straight when coming off a spread loss and recently beat the Blazers by 33 at home. We like Los Angeles to get a solid home win and cover on Wednesday.

#672 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Minnesota +10.5 over Purdue, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This line is off. Our power ratings have Purdue -8.5. For comparison’s sake, Minnesota was just +11 @ Wisconsin on Sunday and now they are getting basically the same number at home vs Purdue. The Boilers are in a tough spot coming off an important 81-78 home win vs Ohio State on Sunday. They hit a tough 3-point shot at the buzzer to get that win. Purdue plays another important game at home on Saturday vs Michigan. In the meantime they are @ Minnesota who sits at 2-7 in Big 10 play and this sets up as a perfect spot for a Boilermaker letdown. They have played just 5 true road games on the year and they have a 3-2 record in those games with none of their wins coming by more than 10 points (losses @ Rutgers and @ Indiana). They average 84 PPG overall this season but that drops by 7 points when they have played on the road. Purdue’s road point margin is just +4 per game. The Gophers are finally back to full strength after their Covid slow down. They were missing key players on and off over the last few weeks but had everyone back for the first time in awhile in their game @ Wisconsin on Saturday, including big man Eric Curry who hadn’t played since January 12th. They gave the Badgers all they could handle in a 66-60 loss – game was tied 60-60 with 2:20 remaining. Minnesota is a bit undervalued in our opinion and they’ve been a very competitive team despite their 7 losses. Only 1 of those losses came by more than 13 points. Their average point margin in Big 10 play is -6.5 points per game and we think they keep this one close.

#680 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* George Mason +2 over St Louis, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We were on George Mason one week ago today as a home dog vs St Bonnies and picked up a nice win with the Colonials coming out on top 75-66. We’re getting the underrated GM team at home as a dog again and we’re jumping on them vs St Louis. They are playing really good basketball right now winning 7 of their last 9 games with their lone losses coming by 1 point @ George Washington, a game Mason played without their leading scorer Oduro, and @ Kansas by just 9 points. GM is a very good shooting team ranking 14th nationally in eFG% and 15th in 2-point FG%. They are tough to guard with 4 players averaging double digit points including 3 key transfers from Colorado, Tennessee, and Morehead State. St Louis is 5-2 in A10 play but they’ve faced the easiest schedule in the conference. The Billikens have played ONE team on the road that ranks in the top 7 in the conference and that was a loss @ Dayton. SLU has historically struggled on the road with a 2-3 record this season and they are 13-28 in conference road games under head coach Travis Ford. They are coming off a rare road win on Saturday vs Duquesne, one of the two worst teams in the conference, and they are now on the road for the 2nd straight game. George Mason is 8-1 at home this season with a +13 PPG margin and they are also 6-1 ATS as a dog this season. We like the Colonials to get it done again at home vs SLU.

#684 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indiana State +4 over Drake, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a very dangerous game for the road favorite. Drake is in a prime letdown spot here as they are coming off a huge home win vs Loyola over the weekend and they have a game vs arch rival Northern Iowa on deck. ISU has lost 5 of their last but they’ve been very competitive with only 1 of those losses coming by more than 8 points (@ Bradley on Sunday – we were on the Braves!). Their win during that stretch was at home vs Missouri State who is rated as the 2nd best team in the MVC behind Loyola. ISU has played the toughest schedule in the league have already faced Loyola twice (ISU led Loyola for most of the game at home and lost), Bradley twice (won one and lost one), Missouri State (ISU won), Northern Iowa (ISU lost in OT), and Southern Illinois – all of the top teams in the conference. The Sycamores score points from beyond the arc than any other team in the conference and they shoot it very well from deep at home (almost 38%). That is Drake’s weak point on defense as they rank 8th in the MVC defending the arc. The Bulldogs also foul more than any team in the league so we expect Indiana State to be at the line a lot in this game where they hit 77% in conference play. Drake was the biggest money maker in college basketball last season with a ridiculous 20-5 ATS record during the regular season. Because of that, they have officially been overvalued this season with a 5-14 ATS record and they have covered just ONE of their last 10 road games. We like ISU to pull the upset here.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -5 over Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - We like the home team to prevail by double-digits in this matchup and will back the Wolves here. Let’s get this out of the way first. The Nuggets are playing lights-out right now with 5 straight wins and 8 of their last ten. We do like they are coming off a blowout win of the World Champion Milwaukee Bucks and may letdown here, especially with a potential look-ahead with the Jazz. The Nuggets have won 4 straight on the road but other than the Bucks they won at New Orleans, at Brooklyn who played without the Big 3 and at Detroit. In contrast, let’s look at the Wolves' most recent home games. They beat the Jazz by 20, the Nets by 11 with Irving and Harden and the Warriors by 20. Minnesota is 6-1 SU their last seven at home with all six wins coming by 6 or more points. The Nuggets are a respectable 15-12 SU on the road this season but only 6 of those wins came against teams with a winning record. That ties into the Nuggets 8-18 ATS record in their last twenty-six road games versus a team with a winning home record. We like the Wolves by 10+

#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -8 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Bad spot and bad match up for South Carolina. They are catching MSU coming off 2 road losses vs 2 of the top teams in the nation. The Bulldogs lost @ Kentucky last Tuesday and took the Cats to OT on the road. Then they traveled to Texas Tech and they were out of gas both physically and emotionally after their Kentucky loss. Noticed it very early in the game and Tech rolled up an easy win. Now back at home where MSU is 4-0 in SEC play (11-1 overall) winning by an average of 12.5 points per game in league play. They have a +16 points per game margin in all 12 home games with 9 of their 11 wins coming by double digits. South Carolina is on the road for the 2nd time in 4 days after upsetting Texas A&M on Saturday. In SEC play the Gamecocks have a points per possession margin of -0.4 and MSU is +0.5 in that category. SC ranks 13th in the SEC (league games) in offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG%, and 13th in TO margin where they cough it up a whopping 23% of the time. They are also a poor defensive rebounding team (308th nationally) and MSU is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. Those 2 things alone (TO’s and rebounding) should lead to a bunch of extra possessions for the home team. Since South Carolina is a poor shooting team, they rely on their defense to create TO’s which turn into easy baskets. That’ll be tough here vs the Bulldogs who are #1 in the conference in TO rate giving it away just 16% of the time. The Gamecocks are aggressive defensively thus they foul A LOT. They foul more than any other team in the conference and their opponents % of points from the FT line is nearly 25% which is the 7th most in the entire nation. MSU is a solid FT shooting team at 72% while South Carolina has hit just 59% of their FT’s in conference play. Mississippi State by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - This is one of those “plug your nose” bets as we are backing a losing team as a road favorite. We will though for several reasons including going against a Thunder team that is 14-34 SU on the season and a team without their best player. The Thunder have the 4th worst overall point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG and lose at home by an average of -4.3PPG. OKC is better than the Blazers statistically on the defensive end of the court but are much worst offensively. The Blazers are 16th in offensive efficiency ratings and are the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. The Thunder rank 30th in points, FG% shooting and 3-point% shooting with the worst offensive efficiency numbers at 1.025-points per possession. Scoring will be even tougher tonight without their best players Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who is averaging 24.4 points, 7.1 assists and 5.5 rebounds in wins this season. The Thunder haven’t won this season without SGA in the lineup and stand 0-5 SU on the year. In those five losses the Thunder have been beaten by 12, 6, 73, 18 and 9 points. Going back further we find the Thunder are a miserable 6-36 SU without Alexander over the past two full seasons. OKC has lost 12 of their last thirteen. Portland is on a 5-0 spread run their last five games when coming off a loss of 10 or more points. The bet here is backing Portland.

ASA top play on 9* Chicago Bulls -5 over Portland Trailblazers, 3:40 PM ET - We like the situation to play an elite team in the NBA off a disappointing loss, versus a bad team off a win. The Bulls are coming off a loss in San Antonio and have been solid at home when coming off a beat with a 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS record. Portland defeated the Rockets in their most recent game and have struggled in this situation with a 3-8 SU/ATS record when coming off a win and on the road. Portland is 7-15 SU away this year with the 4th worst point differential in the league at minus -8.4PPG. The Blazers have the 29th ranked road defensive efficiency and 22nd offensive efficiency numbers. Chicago is 17-6 SU at home with the 8th best average MOV at +4.7PPG. The Bulls were recently a -4-point home favorite over the Raptors who are playing much better than the Blazers and now this line is only a 1.5-points higher?

#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -7 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Cincy’s path to this point has been less than impressive. They topped the Raiders by a TD at home in the Wild Card round despite getting outgained in the game on a YPG and YPP basis. Last week they went to Tennessee and won on a last second FG but that game was more or less gifted to them. The Bengals were dominated in the stats getting outgained by 1.4 YPP in the game but the Titans had 3 interceptions which killed any chance they had. The offense has been fairly pedestrian in those 2 games averaging 5.0 YPP and 5.4 YPP. They’ve scored just 1 TD in their last 18 possessions and their offensive line is a sieve allowing 11 sacks in the first 2 playoff games. The Bengals are +4 TO’s in those 2 games which is why the are still standing. KC, on the other hand, is rolling offensively averaging 7.4 YPP vs Pittsburgh and 7.6 YPP last week vs the #1 defense in the NFL. They scored 42 points in each of those 2 games and we see Cincinnati will have a tough time keeping up. Some may fear a possible letdown for KC after last week’s crazy win over Buffalo which many people felt should have been the AFC Championship game but we don’t think that happens. The Chiefs have won 11 of their last 12 games and their one loss was @ Cincy late in the year (lost 34-31) and blew a 28-17 first half lead. They will be focused in this one. We love the experience advantage with Mahomes and Reid playing at home in their 4th straight AFC Championship game vs a team, coach and QB who has never been this far in the playoffs. Teams on the road in the Championship round who won a road game the previous week are just 13-28 SU & 17-24 ATS as this is a very tough situation to be in. Mahomes is a perfect 8-0 SU in playoff games when Brady isn’t the opposing QB and will be very comfortable in this spot. KC wins and covers at home and moves on to another Super Bowl.

#844 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Bradley -7.5 over Indiana State, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Bradley is one of the hottest teams in the MVC winning 5 of their last 6. Their only loss during that stretch was @ Illinois State, a game Bradley led by 20 points late in the first half. Prior to this 6 game stretch, the Braves faced the 2 best teams in the conference, Loyola & Missouri State, and played very well. They lost those games by 2 points vs Mizzou State and in OT @ Loyola, a game they led by 16 in the 2nd half. So this team has been playing outstanding basketball over their last 7 games. Prior to that, they took on this Indiana State team on the road and lost by 5. The Braves were favored by -3.5 on the road in that one and now we’re getting them at -7 (as of this writing) so value on Bradley. In that 5 points loss the more physical Braves dominated the glass (+13) including 14 offensive rebounds. That led to 13 more FG attempts but they simply shot poorly in the loss. We expect them to handle ISU on the glass again here and if they shoot close to the 47% they average at home this should be an easy win. Indiana State is one of the youngest teams in the nation (3 freshmen starting) so it’s understandable why they are just 1-6 SU on the road this season. The Sycamores are also coming off a huge upset at home beating Missouri State earlier this week. They caught Mizzou St off a huge win of their own as they beat Loyola last weekend so it was definitely a letdown spot for the Bears. We like the red hot Braves in this revenge spot.

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +5.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Grizzlies are coming off a big game last night versus the Jazz and are ripe for a letdown. Memphis is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, 3rd in four nights and 7th in thirteen days. Washington meanwhile has been off since the 25th and will come into this game well rested. The Wizards are getting healthy with Dinwiddie, Beal, Bryant and Hachimura all back in the lineup. Washington is coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Clippers (lost by 1-point after leading by 35-points) the last time out and will be highly motivated here. Memphis is 5-4 SU when playing without rest, but their average margin of victory is minus -1.7PPG. The Wiz are a respectable 10-13 SU away from home on the season and not only do we like them to cover here, but we also won’t be surprised if they win outright.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky -5 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - This is a huge home game for WKY. They are 2-5 on conference play and have lost 4 straight games but they are much better than their record. The Hilltoppers have played one of the toughest schedules in CUSA play so far having already faced the 3 highest rated teams in the league (UAB, North Texas, and La Tech). They were very competitive in all 3 of those losses getting topped by 1, 3, and 5 points. The most recent coming at home on Wednesday vs UAB the best team in the conference. WKY lost that game 68-65 and made only 4 out of 17 three pointers (24%) but still had the game tied with under 10 seconds to go when UAB made a 3 at the buzzer. MTSU, on the other hand, has played the easiest schedule in CUSA play and they have a 4-2 record. Their last 3 games were vs FIU, Southern Miss, and Marshall, 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the league. They struggled big time @ Marshall (0-7 CUSA record) on Thursday night squeaking by with a 2 point win. The Blue Raiders trailed for most of the game but made 2 FT’s in the final seconds to win. MTSU was 0-6 SU on the road entering that game vs Marshall and they are now playing their 2nd road game in 3 days. They are a very poor 3-point shooting game (330th nationally) and they rely on getting to the FT line more than most teams. Problem here is Western Kentucky fouls as little as anyone in the nation allowing just 10.8% of opponents points to come from the stripe (lowest percentage in the country). The Hilltoppers are the much better offensive team ranking 3rd in CUSA (conference games) in eFG%, 3rd in 3 point %, and 4th in 2 point %. The are also the much bigger team, the more experience team, and they create bunches of TO’s (best in CUSA) which will make it difficult for an MTSU team that turns the ball over a lot. WKY is the better team despite their CUSA record and they are backed into a corner in a must win spot. We’ll lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +1.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - We successfully played against the Spurs the other night with part of our analysis touching on scheduling and fatigue being a factor for San Antonio. It showed late in the game and the Grizzlies took advantage with a cover. This isn’t a back to back for the Spurs but this will be their 9th game in sixteen days. The Bulls are 30-17 on the season and sit second in the East behind the Heat. Chicago went through a funk recently with a 4-6 SU record their last ten games but that was largely due to injuries to Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozen. Both are back here and played well in their most recent game, a win over Toronto. Chicago ranks in the top half of the NBA in most key statistical categories when playing on the road. The Spurs on the other hand rank 25th in defensive efficiency at home which will show in this game with the weapons the Bulls have offensively. Chicago is the 2nd best overall shooting team in the NBA, 1st in 3-point percentage and they should take advantage of a Spurs defense hemorrhaging points in the paint. The Bulls get this road win.

#877 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island +6.5 over Dayton, Friday at 7 PM ET - We were on URI earlier this week vs Richmond and came up short as they lost 70-63. It was a game the Rams led by 15 in the 2nd half but were outscored 15-1 in the final 5:45 as URI did not make a single shot during that stretch. It was a game they should have won and they blew it. Dayton also played on Tuesday and squeaked by Fordham the 4th lowest rated team in the A10. Final score was 68-61 and Fordham played without their 2nd and 3rd leading scorer in that game . Not overly impressive for Dayton. The Flyers are expected to have some ups and downs as they are the YOUNGEST team in college basketball. They start 4 freshmen and 1 sophomore and their first 3 players off the bench are also freshmen. As you would expect with a very young team, Dayton turns the ball over A LOT ranking 324th nationally in that category. URI is very good at creating turnovers defensively – 4th best in the conference – so this isn’t a great match up for Dayton when it comes to that. The Flyers also score most of their points from inside the arc (55% which is 31st most in the country) and that is the Rams strength on defense as they limit opponents to just 43% shooting from 2 point range – 9th best in the nation. Rhode Island has been a solid road team going 3-3 so far with losses @ Providence (one of the top teams in the Big East), @ Davidson by 4 (top rated team in the A10) and @ Florida Gulf Coast by 1. They are one of the better teams in the nation defensively (13th nationally in eFG% defense & allowing just 63 PPG). They are set up very well to cover as a dog and we think they have a great shot to win this one. Take the points.

#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Southern Illinois +6.5 over Loyola Chicago, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These two just met on Saturday @ Loyola and the Ramblers won 59-47. The game was much closer than that with Loyola leading by just 3 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Ramblers went on an 11-2 run in the final 3 minutes to win by 12. Southern Illinois shot terribly (33%) and made 5 fewer FT’s and still were in the game until the final few minutes on the road. SIU is better than their 10-10 record (3-5 in conference play). They have played the 3rd toughest schedule in league play and 7 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less. Loyola has played the easiest schedule in league play and their 2 road wins in the MVC have come @ Evansville (last place in the conference) and Indiana State (2nd to last place in the conference). The Ramblers other 5 league games have all come at home. SIU is 3-1-1 ATS this year as a dog in MVC games and 6-3 ATS overall getting points. Their overall numbers at home (PPG, FG%, and 3 point %) are all much better than on the road as to be expected. We can expect Loyola to be in a letdown spot here after just beating Southern Illinois and with a huge game vs Drake, the team that sits in 2nd place behind them, on deck. Take the points.

#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State +1.5 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Utah State is in must win mode after starting MWC play with a 1-5 record. USU has played an extremely tough schedule this season (41st SOS) and 6 of their 9 losses have come by 5 points or less. They have an SOS of #2 in conference games and they have lost 4 in a row all by 7 points or less and their 2 home games during that stretch came by 2 vs Wyoming (4-1 conference record) and by 3 vs Boise State (7-0 conference record). The Aggies are much better than their 10-9 record and they are the only team in the Mountain West that ranks in the top 80 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This team was 20-9 last year and lost to Texas Tech in the first round of the NCAA tournament. They really need a win here and they are rested and getting healthy after a full week off. They catch San Diego State playing their 3rd game in 5 days. A very quick turnaround for the Aztecs after beating UNLV on Monday night. SDSU hasn’t played a road game since January 1st and their offense really struggles at times to say the least. On Saturday they scored only 37 points in a home loss to Boise. In road games they are averaging just 60 PPG while shooting 37% from the field and only 20% from beyond the arc. The Aztecs are very good defensively but you need to score some points to cover games on the road, especially as a favorite, and they simply don’t do that. These two conference rivals met 3 times last year and Utah State won 2 of those games. USU has been favored in every home game this year, including vs Boise last week who is undefeated in conference play. We like the value of the home dog here and we have Utah State winning this one.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Spurs and back the Grizzlies in this matchup. First off, the line on this game looks “fishy” and higher than it should be. San Antonio was just a +1-point home underdog against Brooklyn and Philadelphia and are now catching 4 or more points here? Vegas clearly wants you to bet on the Spurs so in contrarian fashion we will back Memphis. The Spurs are coming off a game last night in Houston and played their best basketball of the season. But now they are unrested playing the second night of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in four nights and 8th game in only 13 nights. Fatigue will be a major factor tonight. Memphis meanwhile is coming off a loss on the 23rd in Dallas so they are rested and hungry for a W. The Grizz are 6-2 SU with 2 days rest this season while the Spurs are 4-5 SU without rest. Memphis is significantly better in terms of offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency with a 15-8 SU road record to their credit. Spurs are on an 0-5 ATS streak as a dog, Grizzlies have covered 4 straight off a spread loss. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -9 over Utah Jazz, 7:10 PM ET - The Jazz have struggled offensively of late with Donovan Mitchell sidelined. The Jazz managed just 92 points last night against the Warriors and put up 111 in games against Houston and Detroit who are two of the worst defenses in the NBA. Utah has the #1 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA for the season but in the last five games they slip to 10th. It will be especially tough to score tonight against a Suns team that is 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing .995-points per possession. The red-hot Suns have won 9 of their last ten games and five straight with the average margin of victory in those five games coming by 15.4PPG. This is a really tough spot for the Jazz who are playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back, 3rd game in four days AND 6th game in nine days. These same two teams met again in Utah on Wednesday so expect the Suns to make a statement here.

#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Illinois -6 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7 PM ET - South Dakota sits ahead of WIU in the Summit standings with a 4-3 record (WIU 3-4) but WIU is the better team by our metrics. South Dakota has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (348th) and they have played the easiest schedule so far in the Summit League (10th). They still have 3 conference losses despite that. They may look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 4 straight but those wins have come vs the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference with all 3 rank below 267th nationally. They Coyotes have struggled on the road with a 2-5 SU record and their only wins away from home came @ North Dakota who is 4-14 on the season and 0-5 in conference play and @ St Thomas who is 8-10 overall and 2-4 in league play. They haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 200 this season and they are 0-4 SU vs teams ranked higher than 200. WIU is coming off a home loss vs the top team in the conference, South Dakota State. They will be hungry for a win here as their 2 home games in conference play (both losses) have come vs the top 2 teams in the league. They are 6-0 in their other home games this season. Offensively they average 80 PPG and an even better 85 PPG at home. They should have success in this one vs a South Dakota defense that ranks 308th nationally in eFG% defense and 353rd in 3-point defense (out of 358). The Coyotes were just on the road in Minnesota on Saturday (St Thomas) and now they are in Illinois just 2 days later to play this make up game that was originally scheduled for last week. WIU has been at home since January 15th. Tough spot for the road team. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:10 PM ET - The Hornets are quietly making some noise in the East with an overall 26-20 record, while the Hawks have disappointed at 20-25. On the season the Hawk are 9-14 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -3.1PPG which ranks 20th. A large reason why Atlanta has struggled away from home is their defensive efficiency ratings which is 2nd to last in the NBA. Charlotte has the 9th best average point differential in the league at home at +4.4PPG. They have the 5th best home OEFF numbers which is clearly a significant advantage against the Hawks D. Charlotte has won 7 of their last eight games with impressive wins against the Bucks (twice), at Philly and at Boston. Atlanta has won three in a row but all three were at home. Charlotte is 9-3-1 ATS the last 13 meetings with Atlanta in Charlotte.

#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +2 over Xavier, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Don’t look now but Marquette just might be the hottest team in the Big East. The Golden Eagles have now won 5 straight games including wins @ Villanova earlier this week and home wins vs Seton Hall and Providence – 3 of the top teams in the conference. They are catching Xavier in a tough spot playing their 2nd straight road game with the stomach flu running through the team. The Musketeers topped DePaul 68-67 on the road Wednesday but it was a struggle. They trailed for much of the game and actually took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 2:00 minutes remaining. DePaul played that game without their leading scorer Freeman-Liberty (21 PPG) so an unimpressive effort from Xavier. They had 2 key players under the weather for that game and now another starter (Freemantle) is battling the flu. They may or may not play but none are 100%. These 2 met back on December 18th when Marquette was in the midst of a 4 game losing streak and simply not playing well. Xavier won the game 80-71 and that margin came at the FT line where the Musketeers attempted 35 FTS’s (made 21) to just 12 attempts for the Eagles (made 8). Marquette has been scorching from deep hitting at least 43% from beyond the arc in 4 of their last 5 games and Xavier has struggled guarding the 3 their last few games allowing 43% and 38% vs Creighton and DePaul. This sets up very nicely for the Golden Eagles to win at home.

#304 ASA PLAY ON 8* Green Bay -5.5 over San Francisco, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a terrible spot for San Fran. It’s their 3rd straight road game and their games @ LA Rams and @ Dallas they were must win situations and both went down to the wire. While the Niners were expending all kinds of physical and mental energy to make sure their season stayed alive, the Packers were resting. GB’s starters played in the first half of their season finale @ Detroit and then sat the rest of the game and obviously last week as well. Add to that the 49ers will be on a short week (played Sunday now Saturday) and the temps in Green Bay on Saturday night will be 10 degrees or lower and this warm weather west coast team could have problems. The coldest game SF played in this year was @ Seattle where the temps were in the low 40’s. Big difference for them on Saturday night in GB. They are a bit banged up after the last 2 games including QB Garoppolo who has a bad hand AND bad shoulder. The freezing weather could really hinder his effectiveness. Their top DE Bosa is also questionable at best in concussion protocol. Meanwhile Green Bay is as healthy as they’ve been all season and could bet a number of key players back for this one including starting LT Bakhtiari, starting CB Alexander, and starting OLB Smith. When these two met in San Francisco earlier this season, the Packers squeaked out a 30-28 win but really dominated the stat sheet gaining 6 YPP while holding the Niners to only 4.6 YPP. Teams playing in the Divisional round when coming off an upset win the week before have been terrible investments – 6-30 SU and 13-23 ATS since 1998. Meanwhile Divisional home teams that were off the first week of the playoffs are 100-34 SU dating back to 1988. Packers win by at least a TD and move on to the NFC Championship game for the 3rd straight season.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -3.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Cincy heads out on the road after their first playoff win in over 30 years last weekend. It was a rather unimpressive 26-19 win over the LV Raiders, who actually outgained the Bengals 385 yards to 308 yards and 5.4 YPP to 5.0 YPP. Two huge turnovers cost Vegas in that game as one turned into a Cincinnati FG and another took away the potential game tying TD late in the game at the Bengals 9 yard line. One thing that stuck out like a sore thumb to us in that game was Cincinnati’s inability to stop the run. The Raiders ran for 7.4 YPC in that game. Not a good trend now facing a very good running team (Titans 5th in the NFL at 141 YPG rushing) and Tennessee expect RB Henry back in the line up. On top of that, the Bengals lost 3 key DT’s in last week’s game, one is definitely out this week and the other 2 are highly questionable. The Titans not only get Henry back on offense, they will have both their top WR’s Jones & Brown in the line up for just the 8th time this season. The first 7 game they were able to team up, Tennessee was 6-1 SU. The Titans defense played outstanding down the stretch holding 6 of their last 8 opponents to 17 points or less and they allowed only 16.8 PPG in home games this season. We also give Tennessee a big coaching edge here with Mike Vrabel who is a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS when his team has at least 8 days of rest. Cincy’s coaching staff and players are new to the playoff scene and after a win last week where they didn’t perform all that well, they now take the road vs a veteran playoff team and coaching staff. Many are questioning the legitimacy of the Titans as a #1 seed but they have a very solid resume topping both of the top 2 teams in the AFC, the Bills & Chiefs, this year. Rested home teams in the Divisional round are 100-34 SU since 1988 and that continues here. We’ll lay the points with Tennessee.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON Miami FL -2.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Huge revenge game for Miami from just 11 days ago. Miami led on the road @ FSU for a majority of the game and lost 65-64 when the Canes (with a 1 point lead) were called for a foul with 1 second left on the clock. FSU hit both FT’s and won by a point. That loss is the Canes only setback in their last 11 games. This team is playing very well. They beat Duke on the road and just walloped UNC at home by 28 points all within the last 2 weeks. FSU is also on a bit of a roll winning 5 straight but 4 of those wins came at home. For the season the Noles are just 2-4 SU in road games. Dating back to last season FSU has covered just 1 of their last 9 road games. They are averaging just 66 PPG and shooting only 41% from the field in their 6 road games this season. Miami is 9-1 at home this season averaging 84 PPG and hitting nearly 50% of their shots. We like the red hot Canes to get their quick revenge at home in this one.

ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -13.5 over Detroit Pistons, 9:10 PM ET - Detroit is 4-19 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.2PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.151PPP. Detroit is 24th in points allowed per game, 29th in opponent FG% D, 28th fin 3-point percentage D and 25th in rebounding. Now they face a jazz team that is 1st in scoring, the 3rd best shooting team at 47.5%, 6th in 3-point percentage and 4th in rebounding. Offensively the Pistons aren’t any better than they are defensively. Detroit is 28th in scoring, 29th in FG%, 29th in 3-point percentage and 28th in offensive rebounding. The Jazz are top 12 defensively in all the key categories. What makes this play more attractive is the fact the Pistons are coming off a big come from behind win at Sacramento while the Jazz are off a disappointing home loss to the lowly Rockets. The Jazz recently lost in Detroit as a -10.5-point favorite and will get a 20-point win here.

#888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -7 over Evansville, Friday at 7 PM ET - We look for ISU to play very well at home after playing very poorly in their worst loss of the year @ Missouri State. Prior to that blowout loss, the Redbirds, who are 9-9 on the season, had 5 losses by 6 points or less or in OT. That included tight games @ top 10 Wisconsin (lost by 4) and vs a very solid St Louis team on a neutral court (lost by 6). ISU has had a rough stretch of games over the last 30 days with 4 road games and just 1 home game. In that 1 home game they topped Bradley by 9 points. Tonight they take on an Evansville team that is 0-5 in the MVC and just 4-12 on the season. The Aces wins have come vs DePauw (non Division 1), IUPUI (ranked 358th out of 358 teams), Eastern Illinois (ranked 354th) and Tennessee Tech (ranked 273rd). They are 1-5 SU on the road this season (only win vs Eastern Illinois) and 4 of those 5 losses have come by at least 20 points. ISU is very good offensive averaging 79 PPG and they rank 17th nationally hitting almost 39% of their shots from beyond the arc. That’s a bad match up for this Evansville defense that allows opponents to make 42% of their 3’s which is the 2nd worst mark in the country. On top of that, Evansville struggles to score averaging only 59 PPG which won’t get it done here vs the higher scoring Redbirds. We’ll lay the points.

#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts -20.5 over North Dakota, Thursday at 8 PM ET - This one will be ugly. ORU has a top notch offense that ranks 77th nationally in adjusted efficiency, 32nd in eFG% and 13th in 3 point %. The are the 8th highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83 PPG and at home they are putting up a ridiculous 91 PPG. That’s going to be a massive sized problem for a North Dakota defense that ranks DEAD LAST in the country (358th) in defensive efficiency. The Hawks allow their opponents to hit 40% of their 3-point shots and we already mentioned ORU’s prowess from beyond the arc. ORU is coming home after sweeping a 3 game road trip and their last home game was on January 1st vs Nebraska Omaha. Why do we bring that up? Because Nebraska Omaha and tonight’s opponent are very similar defensively (both stink) with Omaha actually ranking 11 spots higher in defensive efficiency. How did that game turn out? Oral Roberts won 107-62! Don’t be at all surprised of the Golden Eagles hit triple digits in this game. Does North Dakota have any chance of keeping up? Nope. The Hawks rely fairly heavily on the 3 point shot and they aren’t very good at it (288th nationally). They are facing an Oral Roberts defense that has allowed opponents to make only 29% of their 3’s which is the 38th best defensive mark in the country. They are 0-8 on the road losing by an average of 19 PPG. The 3 worst teams in the Summit are North Dakota, Nebraska Omaha, and Denver (all ranked below 300). ND played the other 2 conference cellar dwellars on the road this month and lost @ Denver by 19 and @ Nebraska Omaha by 16. Now they are playing the 2nd best team in the league on the road and it’s gonna get ugly.

#753 ASA PLAY ON 8* Belmont -5 over Morehead State, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 have similar records (Belmont 14-4 / Morehead St 12-5) but Belmont is the much better team. Belmont’s 4 losses have all come vs top 100 teams and since their 2-point loss vs Dayton on December 18th, the Bruins have won 9 of 10 games. They’ve also beaten 4 top 100 teams this year including St Louis, Drake, and Iona away from home. This is a huge step up in competition for Morehead State. In fact, since mid December, this team has not played an opponent ranked inside the top 300. They have won 6 straight games vs teams ranked 356, 354, 319, 312, 310, and a non division 1 opponent. Their best win this season is vs Arkansas State who ranks 179th. For comparison’s sake, their opponent tonight Belmont ranks 55th nationally. In their 4 games vs top 100 opponents this year, Morehead State has lost by margins of 23, 23, 20, and 14 points. Belmont is a fantastic shooting team ranking 7th nationally in eFG%. They hit over 60% of their shots inside the arc which is a poor match up for the Morehead defense that allows opponents to score almost 60% of their points from 2-point range (21st most nationally). Belmont finished last season with a 26-4 record and they basically returned everyone from that team (97% of their minutes are back) including all 5 starters. They’ve been waiting for this one as their NCAA hopes were dashed in the OVC tourney last year by this Morehead State team. The Bruins get the revenge they’ve been waiting for.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SACRAMENTO KINGS -6 over Detroit Pistons - Scheduling clearly favors the Kings here with the Pistons coming off a marquee game versus the Warriors on Tuesday night. When playing without rest the Pistons are 2-5 SU this season with a net differential of minus -17PPG. Detroit is 3-18 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.8PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.147PPP. Sacramento hasn’t been great at home this year with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG and a 12-15 SU record but they have won 3 of their last six at home with quality wins over the Lakers and Heat included. The Kings most recent home game was a disappointing loss to the Rockets who shot incredibly well for the game at 54% overall and 40% from 3. The Kings have been off since Sunday and are 3-0 ATS +10PPG when in this scheduling situation. Detroit is playing the 2nd of a B2B, 3rd in four nights and 4th in 6 days.

ASA play on 8* San Antonio Spurs -7 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:40PM ET - The hair on the back of my neck is standing up as I look at this line and it’s the game I keep going back to. This is a ‘fishy’ line that looks like bait to bet on the Thunder but we won’t bite. OKC is 6-15 SU on the road with the 4th worst average point differential of minus -9.2PPG. The Thunder have lost 6 of their last seven road games, have the 29th worst offensive efficiency rating on the road and 18th worst defensive efficiency away from home. The Spurs have their full complement of players back after some covid issues and have moments when they look like playoff contenders. San Antonio played well the other night against the Suns before a collapse in the 4th quarter. The Spurs are 8-13 SU at home but have a positive point differential of +0.7PPG. San Antonio has covered 4 straight games following a home loss of 10+ points. We like San Antonio by 10 or more points here

#712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +3.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - Rutgers is on a nice little roll winning 5 of their last 6 games. They’re unbeaten at home in Big 10 play with wins over Purdue, Michigan, and Nebraska. Iowa has played 3 conference road games losing 2 of those. Their lone Big 10 road win was on Sunday @ Minnesota facing a Gopher team without 2 of their best players in the line up (Curry & Sutherlin). The Hawkeyes have been very good at home this year (10-1 record) but their numbers drop off drastically on the road. When compared to their overall season numbers, Iowa averages 15 fewer PPG, -4% shooting, and -%7 percent from deep when playing on the road. Last year Iowa had their best team they’ve had in 20 seasons and they were -3 @ Rutgers and struggled to get by with a 77-75 win. Rutgers is the much better defensive team (54th in defensive efficiency to 158th for Iowa) and they are the bigger team. Iowa will struggle inside the arc offensively in this game. The Knights are 9-1 SU at home this season and 37-6 SU at home since the start of the 2020 season. We like the host to win this one outright.

#657 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -6.5 over Vanderbilt, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We expect UT to play with an extra effort here after getting absolutely embarrassed over the weekend @ Kentucky. The Vols lost that game 107-79 and the Wildcats averaged a ridiculous 1.47 points per possession in the win. It was the first time since 2006 that the Vols allowed a team to reach 100 points. That was a enormously poor effort from the UT defense that STILL ranks 5th nationally in adjusted efficiency even after that performance allowing just 0.89 PPP. UK is ranked 4th nationally in offensive efficiency and now the Volunteers face a Vandy team that ranks 10th in the SEC in offensive efficiency. We expect the Commodores to struggle on offense vs one of the top defenses in the nation who will play with a little extra passion here. Vandy’s home court advantage has been little to none this year as 5 of their 6 losses have come at home. They are just 2-4 SU vs top 100 teams this year with all 4 losses coming by double digits. While Vanderbilt’s strength of schedule is ranked outside the top 100, Tennessee has played one of the toughest slates in the country (14th SOS). The Vols come in with 5 losses on the season and ALL 5 have come vs teams ranked inside Ken Pom’s top 17 (Villanova, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, and Texas Tech). UT was favored by 12 @ Vandy last year (won 70-58) and now they are laying half that number despite the Vols ranking 14th this year (per Ken Pom) while they were 28th last year when this game tipped off. Vandy is off a 7 point win over UGA (the lowest rated team in the SEC) but they are running into a buzzsaw here. The Vols have won 5 in a road @ Vanderbilt and this is a must win type of game after their blowout loss. Lay it.

#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -2.5 over Wyoming, Monday at 8 PM ET - We love this spot for Nevada. Their most recent home game was a 15 point loss vs Boise State last week. They Wolfpack were favored by 2.5 in that game vs a BSU team that is ranked 30 spots higher than this Wyoming team yet we’re laying the same number. Wyoming, on the other hand, is coming off an upset 2-point win at Utah State on Saturday with the Aggies playing without 2 of their best players. It was a huge win for the Cowboys who hadn’t played a game since December 25th prior to Saturday. They are a thin team with a short bench and now must play 2 nights later after not having played for 20 days. The Wolfpack also have some revenge in mind here after losing both games vs Wyoming last year. Both were on the road and just 2 days apart due to the Covid situation. Nevada was FAVORED in both of those road games last year but lost tight games by 5 & 7 points. They returned 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s 16-10 team and they will be extra motivated here. Nevada has played the tougher schedule so their record isn’t as impressive as Wyoming’s, but the Wolfpack have won 7 of their last 9 after a slow start to the season. The only 2 losses during that run were vs Boise State & Kansas. If this one is tight late and Nevada needs to hold on to a lead, we love the fact they shoot 78% from the FT line (Wyoming shoots just 69%). The Pack has a great home court advantage with a 61-7 SU record last 68 home games. We side with Nevada tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with the Heat coming off a horrible home showing and loss, while the Raptors are off a big road win over the Bucks. Miami is 13-5 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The Raptors are 9-8 SU away from home with a negative differential of -1.7PPG. The Heat have won 4 of their last five at home and are coming off a brutal loss to the 76ers. Miami shot just 38% for the game and 26% from beyond the arc which are both well below their season averages. Butler, Lowry and Robinson combined to shoot 4 of 31 from the field. The Heat have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA over their last five games at 1.210PPP compared to a Raptors team that is 18th over that span of games. Toronto is better defensively in the last five games but only barely with a DEFF rating of 1.102PPP compared to 1.111PPP for the Heat. Given the situation we like Miami to get a solid home win here.

#848 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois -1.5 over Purdue, Monday at 12 PM ET - We have Illinois power rated as the top team in the Big 10 right now. They are playing their best basketball over the last month or so going 6-0 with all of their wins coming by double digits. They did struggle early in the season with their All American center Cockburn out (22 PPG & 12 RPG) but since he’s come back they’ve won 11 of their last 12 games. Their only loss during that stretch was by 4 points vs Arizona (highest rated team in the Pac 12) by 4 points in a game the Illini led by double digits. Their 5 worst performances of the season from an efficiency standpoint game prior to December 12th. Purdue has played 2 Big 10 road games thus far losing @ Rutgers and beating Penn State by 7. Both offenses are high end ranking in the top 10 in adjusted efficiency, however Illinois has the much better defense (21st in efficiency and 10th in eFG% allowed). They also defense inside the arc at a very high level (8th nationally) which will help limit much of the advantage Purdue has on other teams with Edey and Williams inside. Dating back to middle of last season Illinois has covered 9 of their last 10 games at home vs Division 1 opponents. They have also won 21 of their last 24 home games outright and that’s pretty much all we need here with this line sitting at -1.5 as of this write up. Take Illinois.

#150 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -12.5 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Pitts key numbers say they shouldn’t even be in this position. In fact, they say this team is a below .500 type team. The Steelers are the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential and a negative YPP differential. When these two met a few weeks ago KC dominated and we don’t see anything changing here. The Chiefs won the game 36-10 and led 23-0 at halftime. They outgained the Steelers by nearly 1.5 YPP and by more than 4.0 yards per pass attempt. Pittsburgh rebounded after that loss to beat Cleveland (who looked like they had given up on the season) and Baltimore in OT (Ravens played back up QB). Pitt was outgained in 7 of their last 8 games and they simply don’t have the offense to keep up here. The KC defense allowed just 10 PPG over their last 6 home games and the Steelers rank 25th in offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders and aren’t particularly good at running (24th) or passing (24th). They were held to 20 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games while KC topped 30 in 4 of their last 5 games. Pitt will want to run the ball and control the clock to keep Mahomes off the field. That’s what they wanted to do the first game as well but when you get behind quickly (23-0 at half in first meeting) that plan goes out the window. We see a similar situation on Sunday night. Double Digit favorites in the Wild Card round are a perfect 5-0 ATS since 2001 and we see another ATS winner being added to that record. Lay it with the Chiefs.

#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* USC -6 over Oregon, Saturday at 11 PM ET - Great value here with the Trojans. As of this write up they are laying just 6 at home vs Oregon who is playing their 2nd straight road game. Because USC struggled a bit at home on Thursday with Oregon State (won by 10) and Oregon upset UCLA in OT this line is off. The Ducks opened +11 @ UCLA and we have USC rated the EXACT same (within 2 spots) of UCLA and this line is just 6. Now way the Bruins are 5 points better than the Trojans on a neutral site which is what this line suggests. A letdown is in order here for Oregon and this is a very tough spot as they are playing their 3rd road game in 6 days (Beat Oregon St by 2 on Monday and UCLA in OT on Thursday). USC is a fantastic defensive team that has held 12 of their 15 opponents to 40% or less from the field. Not a great match up for an Oregon team that shoots just 43% on the road and just 32% from deep. These teams have faced off here @ USC 3 times since the start of the 2019 season and the Trojans have won those games by 17, 14, and 14 points. We love this spot for USC and we’ll lay the points.

#754 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech -6 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This is an absolute huge home game for Tech. They have underachieved but they are much better than their 8-7 record. They are 0-4 in the ACC and after this game they play 3 consecutive road games which basically makes this a must win. The Hokies enter this game off 3 straight losses (vs Duke, NC State, and Virginia) and Notre Dame has won 6 straight yet Tech is favored by 6. That alone speak volumes. The average rating of ND’s last 6 opponents, all wins, is 160 and 4 of those games were at home. The Irish have played 3 road games thus far in the ACC and they are vs the 3 lowest rated teams in the league. They lost by 16 @ BC, beat Ga Tech in OT, and beat Pitt by 1. Va Tech has a fantastic defense ranked 26th nationally in adjusted efficiency and 41st in eFG% defense. Where they really excel is defending the arc allowing 26% good for 9th in the nation. Bad news for ND who lives at the 3-point line with 39% of their points coming from deep – 32nd in the nation – and they are even better at home hitting 41% from beyond the arc. On the flip side, VT is a great 3-point shooting team hitting 39% of their triples (15th best in the country) and the Irish struggle to defend the arc allowing 34% or 200th nationally. This one sets up really well for the home team in must win mode vs a road team that’s played very easy conference slate thus far (2nd easiest in the ACC). Lay it with Virginia Tech.

#141 ASA PLAY ON Las Vegas +6 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Many feel this might just be a letdown spot for the Raiders coming off a Sunday Night OT win over the Chargers, a game they needed just to get to this point. However, it’s the playoffs and we don’t see a letdown coming in this one. Is it an ideal situation? No but it’s no different than a team playing on Monday night during the regular season with a turnaround game on Sunday. We don’t feel Cincy is in a position to be laying nearly a TD here. They have a young QB who has never been in the playoffs and a head coach who has never coached in the playoffs. The Raiders have been in a win or go home mode for weeks now and they’ve responded with 4 straight wins, including @ Indy and vs the Chargers last week. They are used to this situation. For the season Vegas has a better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.4) and a better YPG differential (+25 YPG to +11 YPG) despite playing the much tougher schedule (LV SOS was 8th and Cincy was 30th). The Bengals did beat Las Vegas when they met this season but the 32-13 final score was very misleading. The game was 16-13 with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Neither team did much offensively both getting held under 290 total yards. Home favorites of -7 or less in the wildcard round have been terrible for nearly 20 years (14-28 ATS). We expect a tight game here with both offenses playing it conservatively (neither team has been in the playoffs as of late).

#889 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU +3 over St Bonaventure, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll be honest. We don’t love taking road teams in college hoops unless the situation is right. One thing we do need most of the time when siding with a road team is good defense which travels. Teams can lose their shooting acumen at times on the road, but defense is a constant. That’s absolutely what we have here with VCU. They rank 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 3rd in 3 point % defense, 14th in 2 point % defense, and 8th in PPG allowed. This team is simply as good as it gets defensively. Their offensive numbers for the season are not great but they are absolutely trending in the right direction on that end of the court as well. The Rams have scored 75 or more in 3 of their last 5 games including topping 80 points in each of their last 2 games. If they do that, they are pretty much unbeatable with the defense they play. They are a perfect 4-0 SU on the road this year including 2 wins over top 100 teams Vanderbilt and Dayton. They average more PPG offensively in road games and allow fewer PPG away from home. This team just simply seems to play better away from home. St Bonnies is a solid team but they need to knock some rust off. They’ve only played one game since December 17th and that was an OT win @ LaSalle on Tuesday. For a recent reference point, VCU just played LaSalle on the road as well last Saturday and dominated the game beating the Explorers by 19 points. The Bonnies defense isn’t nearly at the level of VCU’s ranking 109th in adjusted efficiency and 235th guarding the arc. They have allowed 8 of their last 10 opponents to score more than 1.00 point per possession which isn’t great. For comparison’s sake, VCU has not allowed a single opponent to score 1.00 PPP in a game this year. Zippo in 14 games. The closest was Baylor who put up 0.99 PPP in their 8 point win over VCU and the Bears rank 4th nationally in offensive efficiency. Take the points with the better team and the better defense in this one.

#790 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -3.5 over Florida Atlantic, Thursday at 7 PM ET - MTSU is just glad to be back at home after not playing here since mid December. The Blue Raiders are coming off 3 straight losses, all on the road. Two of those losses were vs Chattanooga, the top team in the Southern Conference, and then a 7 point loss @ UNT, the 3rd ranked team in CUSA. We were impressed how they fought a very good North Texas team in a very tough spot. MTSU was coming off a tight road loss @ Rice just 2 nights earlier and catching UNT off a rare home loss. FAU, on the other hand, upset Marshall on the road Saturday as 5 points dogs. The Herd played without one of their better players (Darius George) while FAU shot lights out at 54% which was more than 10% higher than their road average coming into the game. The Owls were 0-3 in road games entering that won with losses vs High Points, New Mexico, and VCU. That was a rare road win for Florida Atlantic on Saturday and with that win they’ve still won just 5 of their last 23 true road games. They are a poor defensive team (276th in eFG% defense) and more so on the road where they have allowed opponents to hit 49% of their shots from the field. Defending the arc is a huge problem for the Owls as well ranking 353rd allowing a ridiculous 41% on the season. They also turn the ball over on almost 20% of their possessions which is not good vs MTSU who is very adept at creating turnovers (41st nationally). It’s a double revenger for Middle Tennessee after losing both meetings last year. Both were on the road on back to back nights as that’s the way the played it last year with the Covid situation. Now they get FAU to play FAU here at home and the Raiders will play with urgency coming off 3 losses. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Chicago Bulls, 10 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this bet as the Bulls are playing their 4th game in seven days and the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight when they face the Nets. Of course, playing status can change throughout the day but as of now the Nets will have their Big 3 in the lineup with Irving, Durant and Harden. The Nets had won 3 straight road games prior to a loss in Portland the other night, but they were without Harden. The Bulls have been a great surprise this season and are playing well but their 9-1 SU results recently are misleading. In their last nine wins, only one has come against a team with a winning record (Washington 21-20 SU) and they lost the lone game against a winning team in Dallas. Brooklyn is looking up at the Bulls in the standings and have lost to them twice already this season making this game a little more important for them. The glaring advantage the Nets have in this game is their 3-point defense which is 1st in the league compared to the Bulls which ranks 20th.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - Any chance we get to back an elite team off a bad loss we’ll consider it and tonight we get that opportunity with the Suns. Phoenix lost their most recent game at home to Miami 100-123, and it was never close. The Suns shot just 38% for the game which was below their season average of 47.3% which is 3rd best in the NBA. Phoenix is 13-4 SU on the road this season with a +/- of +5.4PPG which is also 3rd best in the league. Toronto is playing well right now with 6 straight wins, but we’re not overly impressed with that resume considering the competition included New Orleans, San Antonio, the Knicks and Clippers. The two wins over the Bucks and Jazz in that stretch is misleading as the Bucks were without 3 starters including Giannis and the Jazz sat everyone that game. Toronto really doesn’t enjoy much of a home court advantage (12-10 SU) as fans aren’t allowed in Canada. Phoenix is 25-11 SU off since the start of last season with an average differential of +7.1PPG. Easy call with a focused Phoenix team.

#886 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver +5 over North Dakota State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Denver is playing their best basketball of the year right now and we feel they are undervalued. 3 of their best performances of the season have come in their last 5 games including an easy 19 point win over North Dakota here on Saturday. The Pioneers have won 3 of their last 4 home games with their only loss coming by 4 points in OT. Their record looks poor at 6-11 but we need to take into account they played a brutal schedule from late November through mid December. During that stretch they played 6 consecutive road games in an 18 day span that were all losses. Since that stretch Denver is 3-2 SU with an OT loss (mentioned above) and a loss @ Oral Roberts, the 2nd highest rated team in the Summit. They have shot 49% during that stretch (their seasonal average is 46%) and averaged 76 PPG (seasonal average 69 PPG). NDSU hasn’t been great on the road where they have a losing record. They were barely able to get by @ Nebraska Omaha on Saturday, the worst team in the Summit, winning by 4 despite taking 13 more FT attempts. Now 2 days later they are on the road again, in altitude, which will be tough for a team that basically plays 7 guys. The Bison average 13 fewer PPG away from home this year (72 PPG overall and 59 PPG on the road) and shoot nearly 10% lower from the field (44% overall and 35% on the road). In Saturday’s win vs Omaha they were only able to average 0.89 PPP vs a team that ranks 346th nationally in defensive efficiency. They’re catching Denver playing confident basketball and we think the Pioneers have a solid shot to win this one outright. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -10.5 over Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets look like a dumpster fire right now and are in a tough spot here coming off a game yesterday, playing their 3rd game in four days AND facing a rested Sixers team. Houston gave up 141 points last night to Minnesota and continue to be the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Rockets give up 127.8PPG on the season and 1.233-points per possession. Houston is getting beat by an average of -8.6PPG on the season, but in their last five games they have a negative differential of minus -14.4PPG. Philadelphia on the other hand is playing really well right now with a +/- differential of +12.4PPG in their last five games. In that same span of five games the Sixers have the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers and 9th best defensive efficiency numbers. These two teams just played in Philly earlier this month with the 76ers winning by 20 points. Philadelphia is rested and will be primed for a big road win here. Lay it.

#287 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -2.5 over Alabama, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We like UGA to win this rematch after getting embarrassed a month ago in the SEC Championship game. We’re getting value with the Dawgs in this one favored by 2.5 after being favored by 6.5 in the first meeting. The line has moved a full 4 points based on just one data point which was the first meeting. Georgia was the best team in the country all season long and we don’t think one hiccup changes that. Prior to the meeting in the SEC Championship Georgia was the much more dominant team. Their defense didn’t allow more than 17 points in any game and they won every game but one by at least 3 scores. Bama lost to a A&M team that finished with 4 losses and had 4 other games decided by one score. For the season, prior meeting included, UGA has dominated opponents with a +3.0 YPP differential while Alabama is +2.1 in that category. The Dawgs are also the healthier team entering this game as Bama will be without top WR Metchie (who had 97 yards receiving & a TD in first match up), their top CB Jobe is out, and a few starting offensive linemen may not play. The Georgia defense, the best in the country, will be salty to prove a point here after allowing a ridiculous 536 yards in the first meeting (UGA had 450 yards). Two interceptions by Georgia QB Bennett, one returned for a TD, didn’t help matters. There is a misnomer that floats around this time of year that Alabama HC Saban is simply unbeatable when he gets to this game. Not true. The Tide has been to the CFB Championship game 5 times, they are 3-2 SU in those games and 1-4 ATS. We’ve had UGA power rated all season long as the best team and we’ll stick with that. The revenge situation makes this even better. Take Georgia.

#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Maryland +1.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - The Badgers have started the New Year with a bang beating Purdue on the road and stomping Iowa at home. This is still a very young team that will have ups and downs this season and this is a really tough spot for them on the road after those 2 huge wins. Maryland is a solid team and they are in must win mode. The Terps have started the Big 10 season 0-3 with losses @ Iowa, @ Illinois, and vs Northwestern. They can’t afford to lose this one at home before they take to the road again next Wednesday. Maryland is 8-6 on the season but they’ve been very competitive with all but one of their losses going to the wire. They’ve actually held the lead in the 2nd half in all but one of their losses so this team is much better than their record. Wisconsin is not a great shooting team ranking 275th in eFG% and 302nd in 3 point percentage but they thrive at getting to the FT line (21% of their points come from the stripe). Maryland does a very good job at not fouling so the Badgers will have problems getting to the line on the road in this one. This line has been over adjusted due to recent results. Wisconsin was just a 13 point dog @ Purdue earlier this week and now they are favored @ Maryland? We have the Terps as a small favorite here and expect them to get the win in their first home game as an underdog this season.

#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -6 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a tough week to handicap the NFL as we all know. Who plays their starters if they’ve already clinched a playoff spot? Which teams that are eliminated are still giving effort and who isn’t? Covid situation? We can look to past experience for this one and know that for the most part, Belichick plays his starters late in the season and still plays to win. That’s what we expect from the Pats. On top of that, they do still have something to play for as a win here + a Buffalo loss gives New England the AFC East title. If there is a team that could possibly tank it in this game it’s Miami. They were in the playoff race until last week and now have been eliminated with their 34-3 blowout at the hands of Tennessee. The Fins looked as if they were playing very well entering that game on a 7 game winning streak but they played a bunch of nobodies during that run including the Jets (twice), Texans, Panthers, and Giants. As soon as they stepped up in competition last week they were whitewashed in a game they had to win. They’ve taken care of business vs the teams they were supposed to beat covering 6 of their last 7 as a favorite. The Pats only 2 losses since mid October were vs the Bills & Colts, 2 of the best teams in the AFC. This is also a revenger as Miami won at New England in the season opener 17-16. The Patriots dominated the stat sheet in that one (+145 yards) and it was QB Jones first start of his career. The better team with motivation rolls here.

#453 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago +4 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We know one team will be motivated in this game and we’re not so sure about the other. The Bears are still playing hard and probably playing as well as they have all season down the stretch. They’ve bee out of playoff contention for quite some time yet they are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak including a solid win @ Seattle 2 weeks ago. The Bears have also outgained 6 of their last 8 opponents which tells us this team is playing well right now. How do Vikings respond after being in playoff race the entire way until getting eliminated last week? This is a team that was in the playoff hunt the entire season until last week’s loss and it’s highly probable this team may have trouble focusing on this now meaningless game. We have a solid barometer for this game as these two met in Chicago just a few weeks ago. Minnesota won the game 17-9 but the final score does not tell the entire story. The Bears actually dominated the stat sheet outgaining Minnesota by 177 yards and Chicago had a YPP differential of +2 in that one. They were in Viking territory EIGHT times in that game and scored only 9 points. Turnovers were huge as Chicago had 3. QB Fields is in Covid protocol and may not play here but we’re fine with Dalton at QB who is actually 3-1 SU in his 4 starts this year. All but 2 of Minnesota’s games this year have been decide by 8 or fewer points so even if they do win, it will most likely be close. We give the Bears a solid shot at the outright win so we grab the points.

#665 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts -1.5 over Western Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET - WIU is improved this year after finishing 7-15 a year ago but much of that is due to an easy schedule (321st SOS). Almost half of their games (7) have come vs teams ranked below 300 or non Division 1 teams. This ORU team will be the highest ranked team WIU has played this season. The Leathernecks are not playing well right now losing 3 straight games, including a 6 points loss vs Nebraska Omaha who is ranked as the 338th team in the nation (out of 358 teams). We have a very solid comparison point with these 2 teams as they’ve each played the same 3 conference teams in their last 3 Summit League games. Those teams were Denver (ORU won by 17 / WIU won by 4 on OT), Nebraska Omaha (ORU won by 35 points / WIU lost by 6), and St Thomas (ORU won by 15 / WIU lost by 13). This is a terrible match up for Western as Oral Roberts loves to shoot the 3 and they are solid at doing so (38% which is 24th nationally) while the Leathernecks are really bad at defending the arc (324th nationally). On the other end of the court Western Illinois also gets a bunch of their points from beyond the arc but the Golden Eagles are one of the best at defending the 3 point line allowing just 29% (46th nationally). ORU has 6 losses on the season, however 5 of those came vs teams ranked inside the top 100. WIU, on the other hand, has played only 1 team all season ranked inside the top 100 (21 point loss). We’ll lay this small number on the road.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 7:10 PM ET - The Spurs are not in a good situation here playing their 5th straight road game and are short-handed without their second and third leading scorers, Kelson Johnson and Derrick White. Also out tonight are key reserves Vassell and Young. The 76ers have a few players out too but have their key players available in Embiid, Harris and Curry. The Sixers are 7-8 SU at home but come into this game having won 5 straight games. Their most recent home game was a 20-point blowout win over the Rockets. San Antonio is 8-12 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. In their last five games the 76ers have some impressive numbers with the 9th best defensive efficiency and the 4th best offensive efficiency rating. In comparison the Spurs are 27th in OEFF their last five games, 17th in DEFF. Lastly, the 76ers have a +12.8PPG average differential their last 5 games and our analytics say that will be the margin here. Bet Philly

#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana -2 over Ohio State, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge early season game for the Hoosiers. They currently sit with a 1-2 Big 10 record and they can’t afford to drop to 1-3 with a home loss. OSU is 3-0 on the season but they are fortunate to be in that spot as they nearly lost @ Nebraska on Sunday. The Huskers, rated 141st nationally and the only Big 10 team outside the top 100, led OSU by 5 points with 35 seconds remaining in the game on Sunday. A late key 3 pointer by OSU and missed FT’s by Nebraska sent the game to OT where the Buckeyes won. OSU shot nearly 50% from 3 point land (16 of 34) and still struggled to put away the worst team in the Big 10 on the road. IU will be highly motivated coming off a 3-point loss @ Penn State. Sort of the opposite of the Buckeye win on Sunday, Indiana shot very poorly @ PSU hitting just 39% overall and only 23% from beyond the arc and still had 2 shots in the final 10 seconds to tie the game missing both. IU could easily be undefeated on the season as their 3 losses were all tight road games including a OT loss @ Syracuse and a 5-point loss @ Wisconsin a game they led by 20 points before the Badgers made a furious comeback. The Hoosiers have the best defense in the Big 10 ranking 14th nationally in efficiency, 4th in eFG% allowed and 1st in the nation at defending inside the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 39%. IU is unblemished at home with a 9-0 record and 7 of those wins coming by double digits. A great defense at home in a must win spot has been a solid long term money maker and we’ll jump on the Hoosiers here.

#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -1 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - ISU is coming off their first loss of the season on Saturday getting tripped up at home 77-72 by Baylor – Ken Pom’s #1 rated team. In that game the Cyclones made ONE three pointer in 14 attempts which put them at 7% from beyond the arc. Even with that, they made a nice comeback and nearly took out the Bears. Prior to that loss ISU was 12-0, including 4-0 vs top 50 teams with 3 of those 4 wins coming by double digits vs Iowa, Memphis, and Xavier. Tech has played the 3rd EASIEST schedule in the nation thus far (356th ranked SOS). The Red Raiders have played 3 top 50 teams and they are 1-2 in those games. It’s been almost 3 weeks since they played a team with a pulse which is not ideal. On top of that, they’ve played only one true road game this year – loss at Providence – and that was back on December 1st. If you subtract those 3 top 50 opponents Tech’s average opponent rank is 292nd. Iowa State is a great defensive team ranking 7th in efficiency, 11th in eFG% allowed, 5th in 3 point % allowed, 10th in PPG allowed (57), and 6th in defensive turnover rate. We love good defensive teams at home as a dog or low favorite, especially off a home loss. ISU was terrible last year but their new head coach Otzelberger has total revamped this team with big time transfers from Kansas, Penn State, Minnesota, Washington State and UNLV. The remain undervalued in our opinion and we like them to win this one.

ASA play on 8* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:10 PM ET - This looks like a big number for the Bucks to cover at first glance, but the situation warrants a wager on Milwaukee. The Bucks are coming off one of their worst shooting performances of the year when they hit under 24% from the 3-point line in a loss to the Pistons. The Bucks are currently the 9th best in 3-point percentage in the NBA so expect a much better night here. Milwaukee is also 53-30 ATS when coming off a loss going back to 2018 with a +7.4PPG margin of victory. The Raptors are off a game last night are playing their 3rd in four days and 6th in eleven days. When playing without rest the Raptors are 10-11 ATS their last L21 with a negative differential of -5.1PPG. Toronto is the 24th worst overall shooting team in the NBA and the Bucks have the 6th best FG% defense. Lastly, the Bucks are playing with revenge after losing to the Raptors earlier this season. Lay the points.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -10 over Detroit Pistons, 7:10PM ET - This line looks “fishy” in our opinion as if the oddsmakers are baiting you to bet the Pistons. We won’t bite and will side with the Hornets. Detroit is coming off their biggest win of the season, a road victory at Milwaukee. The young Pistons let down here against a Hornets team off two straight losses. Prior to their most recent losses the Hornets had won three straight including a 24-point home win over the Rockets as an 8-point chalk. Detroit is 3-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -11.4PPG. Charlotte is a respectable 9-5 SU at home with a +1.9PPG +/-. Charlotte is 4-0 ATS at home off a loss this year, Detroit is 1-6 ATS off a win.

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -6.5 over the San Antonio Spurs, 7:10 PM ET - Our handicapping methods have certainly been altered the past few years as you can’t rely solely on statistics to base your wagers. Much of what you do today has to rely on the lineups and who’s playing on any given night. The Raptors don’t have great overall statistics this season as they’ve been dealing with injuries and covid more so than most teams. They are getting back to full strength, and it’s shown in their play with two straight solid wins over the Clippers and Knicks. San Antonio is dealing with covid and injuries with Doug McDermott and Lonnie Walker IV joining Dejounte Murray in Covid protocols which means the Spurs will be down their 1st, 5th, and 6th leading scorers. The Raptors have been a strong home team in the past and we like them to get a double-digit win here against a depleted Spurs team.

#626 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -1 over Florida State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Wake will be desperate for a home win after losing 2 straight down to the wire road games. At Louisville last Wednesday, Wake led by 1 with just over a minute remaining and lost by 4 despite shooting just 38% overall, 25% from deep, and making 11 fewer FT’s. At Miami on Saturday the Deacs shot much better but were only awarded 8 FT attempts the entire game while the Canes shot 27 from the line. Despite that WF was down 3 with under 3:00 minutes remaining and lost by 8. Now back at home where they are 7-0 this year and average 84 PPG, we expect them to play very well. They catch FSU off a huge road win @ NC State on Saturday and now playing again on the road just a few days later. They shot lights out (51%) in that 2 point win over NC State which is well above their season average. Even after that effort FSU is still shooting just 43% on the road so expect a big regression here vs a solid Wake defense which has allowed opponents to shoot just 38% here at home. Prior to Saturday’s win, the Noles were 0-3 SU on road games with 2 of those losses coming by double digits. They are now 0-7 ATS their last 7 road games. These 2 met last year @ FSU and a Wake team that was ranked 115th at the time nearly pulled off the upset vs an FSU team that was ranked 15th at the time. The Deacs lost that game in OT. Wake is MUCH better this season and FSU has regressed. We expect the Demon Deacons to pick up a home win on Tuesday.

#131 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland +3 over Pittsburgh, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Line value here on the Browns. They were favored by 3 in this game before officially getting eliminated from the playoffs and the line has moved to the Steelers now favored. This move is assuming the Browns will lay down here with no post-season ahead for them. We disagree. Cleveland would like nothing better than to knock of their AFC North rivals as Pittsburgh battles for a potential playoff berth. To add to their potential motivation this is also a revenger with Pittsburgh winning 15-10 on Oct 31st. The Browns are fairly healthy and the better team in this match up. Cleveland ranks 15th in the NFL in offensive YPP and 8th in defensive YPP. The Steelers rank 27th and 25th in those categories. Despite Pitt still being alive for the playoffs they have a -0.7 YPP differential while the Browns are +0.4 in that category. This is a bad match up for Pittsburgh’s defense as they rank 31st at stopping the run and they are facing a Cleveland offense that ranks 3rd and put up 219 yards on the ground vs Green Bay last week. They actually outplayed the Packers in Lambeau (6.2 YPP to 5.4 YPP for Packers) but had 4 turnovers. The Steelers have been a terrible favorite this year (1-5 ATS) while the Browns have been a money maker as an underdog (4-2 ATS). With the cold weather in the Steel City tonight, we like the underdog that can run the ball vs the favorite who can’t (Pitt 29th in rushing). Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - We like the situation as an elite team like the Jazz are off a loss against one of the leagues weaker teams. Utah has nearly everyone back at full strength but the Pels do not as Ingram and Valanciunas are both doubtful tonight. New Orleans was just a -12.5-point underdog at home to the Bucks and lost by 23 points. Utah is 12-3 SU on the road this season with the best average differential of +11.8PPG. The Jazz have the best offensive efficiency numbers away from home and the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers. The Pelicans have the 24th worst average +/- at home and 24th in DEFF on their home court. A motivated Jazz team get a 16-point win here.

#109 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Arizona +6.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is an absolute buy low, sell high spot. This line was Cowboys -2.5 on the look ahead line last week and now, because of recent result, the Cards are 10-5 and getting nearly a TD in this game. They are fully capable of winning this game outright. They are on a 3 game losing streak but have outgained all 3 opponents and 2 of those losses came by a TD vs the Rams & Colts who are playing as well as anyone. They had chances to win both of those games. Arizona was favored by 3 points in both of those games and now they are getting nearly a full TD vs Dallas? The Cards have been a great road team this year going 7-1 SU & ATS away from home. They’ve also cashed easily in every game they’ve been an underdog winning all 5 of those spots outright beating SF, LA Rams, Tennessee, Cleveland, and Seattle (when Wilson was healthy) all on the road. We get it Dallas is red hot winning 4 in a row both SU & ATS. Who have they beaten during that 4 game run? New Orleans, Washington, NY Giants, and Washington again. Big deal. Last week’s home blowout of Washington has pushed this line higher than it should be. Dallas is a solid but not spectacular 6-2 SU at home this year with losses to both the Raiders & Broncos, far from high level teams. Arizona has played the tougher schedule (18 SOS to 28th SOS for Dallas) yet they are only 1 game behind Dallas overall and their season long numbers are better. The Cards have a +0.5 YPP differential on the season while Dallas is +0.3. The Boys haven’t faced a really mobile QB that can throw since taking on KC back on November 21st, a game they lost by 10. We think Kyler Murray will give them trouble in this game. Too many points in a game that Arizona can absolutely win.

#120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -3 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Miami has won 7 in a row to get back into the playoff discussion but they’ve played a brutally easy for the season (29th SOS) and especially as of late. Those wins came vs Jets twice, Houston, NY Giants, Carolina, New Orleans and Baltimore. Minus the Ravens, the QB’s they’ve faced during this run were Ian Book, Zach Wilson, Mike Glennon, Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor. They’ve played 15 games this yar and only 6 of those opponents are in playoff contention. The Fins are 2-4 SU in those games with one of those wins coming by 1 points vs New England in the season opener and all 4 losses coming by double digits. Average margin in those 6 games is -12.5 PPG for Miami. The Titans have the better record (10-5 – Miami 8-7) despite playing the much tougher schedule (2nd SOS). While Miami has struggled vs good competition, Tennessee has wins over Buffalo, KC, Indy (twice), LA Rams, and San Francisco. This situation sets up very nicely as well with Tennessee having extra time after beating SF on a Thursday while the Fins have a short week off a win @ New Orleans on Monday night. Tennessee’s defense should be able to make Miami one-dimensional in this game as the Fins can run (30th in the NFL) and Tennessee is very good at stopping the run (2nd in the NFL). Thus, this game could fall on the shoulders for Miami QB Tagovailoa and we don’t trust him on the road vs a defense that is playing well holding 6 of their last 7 opponents to 22 points or less. Lay it with Tennessee.

#620 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seton Hall +1.5 over Villanova, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The Hall is coming off a loss on Wednesday losing by 5 points @ #21 Providence. The Pirates shot just 39% overall and only 21% from beyond the arc but still had a shot down 3 with less than 30 seconds remaining. They were a bit rusty having not played a game since December 12th so that game should help them here. Nova, on the other hand, has now been off since December 21st and are in a similar situation going on the road for this one. The Cats have not been great on the road this year with a 2-3 SU record. Their road wins have come against teams ranked 250 or lower and their 3 losses have come vs solid competition all in the top 100. Seton Hall absolutely falls into that category ranking 28th in our power ratings. Villanova relies on the 3-point shot almost more than any team in college basketball with over 42% of their points coming from deep (13th most nationally). The problem here is the Cats have been a really poor shooting team on the road hitting only 29% of their 3-point shots and they are facing a SH defense that ranks 7th nationally defending the arc allowing 25%. This is a good match up for the undervalued Pirates playing at home. The dog has covered 5 of 6 in this series and we like Seton Hall to win this one.

#269 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -7.5 over Michigan, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - This line is off. We have UGA as a 10 point favorite here. Way too much overreaction to the last few games of the season has pushed this number too low. For comparison’s sake, OSU was favored by 6.5 or 7 AT Michigan to close out the regular season. Now basically the same number vs UGA, who was the best team in the country for the entire season, on a neutral site? Georgia was favored by 6 vs Alabama in the SEC Championship and now just 1.5 points more vs Michigan? The Wolverines beat OSU at home to close out the season and then crushed a not so good Iowa team in the Big 10 Championship. You then had UGA get steamrolled by Bama in the SEC Championship to set up this lower number. We’ll take advantage of it. The Bulldogs defense has been lights and the best in the nation all season long. After giving up 41 points to the Crimson Tide to close out the season (although one TD was a Bama pick 6), you can bet this defense is completely jacked to make amends here. Michigan doesn’t have the offense to exploit this defense as Bama did. The Tide of the best QB in college football and a number of NFL ready WR’s. They threw the ball 44 times in that game. Michigan can’t do that. They are built on the running game and their QB McNamara is solid but nowhere near the same caliber as Bama’s Young. Problem is the Bulldogs allow just 83 YPG rushing on 2.7 YPC. On offense we expect UGA QB Bennett to bounce back with a solid effort here. He threw for 340 yards vs Alabama but threw 2 interceptions including a pick 6. Prior to that Bennett had thrown 5 interceptions all season (11 games). These 2 played almost identical SOS’s and Georgia had the far superior stats. The Dawgs were +188 YPG, +3.0 YPP and +30 PPG while Michigan was +135 YPG, +1.8 YPP, and +21 PPG. After their season opener vs Clemson, the Bulldogs were favored by at least 14 points in every game until they met Bama in the SEC Championship. Michigan was an underdog twice this year and favored by less than 10 four other times. Believe it or not, 11 of the 14 College FB Final 4 games have been decided by 10 or more points. Another one here as Georgia gets the cover.

#294 ASA PLAY ON 8* Wake Forest -16 over Rutgers, Friday at 11 AM ET - This is a terrible spot for Rutgers who had turned in their gear and called it a season a month ago. Once Texas A&M opted out of this game, the Gator Bowl was looking for anyone to oppose Wake here. The Scarlet Knight players were all on Xmas break at home when they were told to come back to campus so they could practice to get ready for this game. They haven’t been on the field together since November 27th, a 40-16 blowout loss to Maryland, and now they’ve had less than a week to get ready for this game. Not ideal to say the least. This Rutgers offense won’t be able to keep up in this game. Wake Forest is 12th nationally in total offense and 5th in scoring at 41 PPG. Rutgers is 118th in total offense, 113th in scoring, and they were held to 17 points or less in 8 of their 12 games this season. In Big 10 games alone they averaged just 13.6 PPG. Their defense faced only 1 team that is somewhat comparable to Wake offensively and that was Ohio State. In that game Rutgers gave up 52 points by that was misleading. OSU had 45 at halftime and 52 with 10 minutes to go in the THIRD QUARTER before they called off the dogs. We’re not insinuating that Wake as a team is as good as Ohio State, but offensively they are close. The Deacs will score 40+ in this game and we see no way Rutgers can score enough to keep this within 2 TD’s. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards -3.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - This is a wager on the team with “less attrition” as the Cavaliers are decimated at the point guard position right now. The Cavs lost Sexton early on but didn’t miss a beat with Garland and Rubio filling in, but now both of those players are out now too. Cleveland is also missing Osman and Allen, both key rotation players. The Wizard are also shorthanded, but they may be getting Bradley Beal back tonight if he clears protocols. Without Beal the Wizard battled in Miami the other night getting key contributions from Gafford, Kuzma, Dinwiddie and Bertans who all scored 16+ points. Washington has been a solid bet on team at home off a loss this season with a 3-1 ATS record. Cleveland on the road off a loss is 1-3 ATS. The bet here is Washington.

#258 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -6 over Purdue, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET - Purdue has had some really important players opt out for this game. Their top offensive player and top defensive player will not be playing on Thursday. WR Bell (Big 10 receiver of the year), who had over 1,200 yards receiving, is getting ready for the NFL. The Boilers just announced on Monday that WR Milton will also not be playing in the game and he is 2nd on the team in both receptions and yards. That’s over 2,000 receiving yards and 13 TD’s out of the line up for Purdue. Starting OT Long will also be out due to injury. Defensively this team will be missing DE Karlaftis (one of the top pass rushers in the Big 10 – All Big 10) and top CB Mackey. Offensively losing key weapons at wideout will really put this offense in a bind more so than many teams because they cannot run the bal. Purdue averages just 84 YPG rushing and 2.9 YPC which ranks them below 124th in both (out of 130 teams). They need their passing attack to be humming to be effective. While Purdue had their very best players opting out, Tennessee has had many of their top players commit to coming back next year. That gives this bowl a whole different vibe for the Vols heading into next year. Starting QB Hooker is coming back (2,600 yards passing, 560 yards rushing, 26-3 TD to int ration), top WR Tillman, who would have been drafted, is coming back, along with a few starting offensive lineman who had other options. Those team leaders have stated they wanted to come back to try and win an SEC championship next year but it starts with this bowl game. The Vols are treating this game seriously and will have plenty of crowd support with the game in Nashville. Tennessee’s losses this year came at the hands of Pitt (ACC Champ – UT outgained them in the game), Alabama (SEC Champ), Georgia (#1 team for most of the season), Ole Miss, and Florida (early in the season when the Gators were playing very well). They are MUCH more balanced on offense rushing for 212 YPG and passing for 248 YPG. The Vols scored at least 34 points in 8 of their 12 games including topping 40 points 6 times. These 2 played similar SOS’s but Tennessee has the much better numbers with a +1.2 YPP differential (Purdue +0.3) and +11 PPG differential (Purdue +7). We’re getting what we think is the better team, in a semi-home game, in the much better personnel situation. Tennessee wins this one by at least a TD.

#698 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -2 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot at home for the talented Crimson Tide. They are coming off an upset loss at the hands of Davidson. They were 9 point favorites in that game and lost by 1 point. Meanwhile UT is off a huge upset win over Arizona who came into the game 11-0 on the season. That game was at home for the Vols and now they play just their 2nd true road game of the season. Alabama’s schedule has prepared them for these type of games as they’ve already faced 8 top 100 teams this season. They have wins over both Gonzaga and Houston who both rank higher than this Tennessee team. The Vols have played 5 top 100 teams this year and they are 3-2 SU in those games. The remainder of their wins come vs teams that rank 150 or lower. Tennessee’s defense has been very good this year but this will be the best offense they’ve faced so far (Bama 9th in offensive efficiency) and again the game is on the road. Bama shoots a lot of 3’s and if there is a weakness for UT’s defense it’s defending the arc (91st nationally). The Vols also get to the line very rarely generating just 11% of their points from the stripe which is 352nd in the nation. Tough to win on the road in a game like this if they don’t get some significant points from the stripe. Bama has Won 22 of their last 25 home games and they get another here.

#251 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iowa State +2.5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 5:45 PM ET - How can Clemson possibly be up for the Cheez It bowl after making the CFB playoffs in each of the last 6 seasons? They had much higher aspirations and simply didn’t get close to where they thought they’d be post-season. They also lost both coordinators so not an ideal situation for the Tigers. ISU is in a similar situation as they expected to have a great shot to win the Big 12 title yet underachieved. However, from what we are hearing ISU is very happy to have a chance to prove themselves, so to speak, facing a team that is used to playing for National Championships. Clemson’s offense fell off the map this year ranking 98th nationally after finishing 8th last year. They are averaging a fully 160 YPG less than they did a year ago. They are also averaging just 26 PPG after putting up 43 PPG last season. These teams are almost dead even defensively (both allow 310 YPG – 9th and 10th nationally) but ISU is much better on offense. They average a full 75 YPG and 1.3 YPP more than the Tigers. We realize the loss of RB Hall, who has opted out for the NFL, is a blow but with their solid OLine the rushing attack will still be affective. We’re also getting a big edge at QB with ISU’s Purdy completing 73% of his passes this year for 3,000 yards and 18 TD’s compared to Clemson’s Uiagalelei who completed only 54% of his passes for 3,000 yards and only 9 TD’s. The Cyclones played the tougher schedule (22 SOS to 51 SOS) and have the much better key numbers. ISU is +127 YPG, +1.4 YPP, and +12 PPG compared to Clemson’s +54 YPG, +0.8 YPP, and +12 PPG. We like the better team as a dog here.

#246 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -4.5 over West Virginia, Tuesday at 10:15 PM ET - The Gophers defense doesn’t get talked about much but they are absolutely one of the best in the nation. They rank 4th nationally in total defense and they only 2 Big 10 games in which they allowed more than 300 yards was vs OSU & Nebraska. In their other 7 conference games the Minnesota defense allowed an average of just 236 YPG. They outgained 7 straight opponents to end the season and in their 4 losses on the season they outgained their opponent in 3 of those games. We like the Gophers to control the trenches here with one of the most experienced offensive lines and a team that averaged 195 YPG on the ground. WVU played well early in the season but finished just 4-5 in the Big 12 and struggled to beat a bad Kansas team by 6 to close out the season. These teams played similar SOS’s and Minnesota had the better overall numbers including +0.5 YPP differential and a +8 PPG point differential (WVU was +0.0 YPP differential and +2 PPG differential). Minnesota also has a HUGE hidden advantage in this game. HC PJ Fleck hired Ciarrocca as his new offensive coordinator at the end of the regular season. He was the Minnesota OC a few years ago and was quite successful before taking the OC job at Penn State. After 1 year at PSU (last year – Covid year) Ciarrocca was fired by PSU head coach Franklin which was absolutely crazy considering the circumstances. He then joined the West Virginia staff as a special offensive assistant THIS SEASON and was with the Mountaineers throughout the regular season. He should have a pretty good idea of how to defend this WVU offense which gives an already very good Gopher defense an edge. We like Minnesota to win this game by at least a TD.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams are missing a few key players with either injuries or Covid protocols, but the Pelicans losses are more significant at the moment. The Cavs have had a few games to adjust to without key personnel and the Pels have not. The line on this game is telling us as much and you shouldn’t be scared off by this number considering the Cavs recent success. Cleveland's past 11 wins have come by at least 10 points, and the Cavs lead the Eastern Conference with 15 double-digit victories. Cleveland has the 3rd best average point differential on the road this season at +5.7PPG. The Cavaliers are one of very few teams in the NBA that can boast a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this season. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans don’t play any. New Orleans is 24th in DEFF ratings allowing 1.123-points per possession. They are 23rd or worse in 3-point field goal percentage defense, 26th in FG% D and 27th in points allowed per game. Cleveland can pull another double digit road win here.

#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh +4 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Pitt struggled early in the season losing 6 of their first 8 games but they’ve righted the ship. It also wasn’t as bad early on as it may have seemed with 4 of those losses coming vs top 100 teams including two 1-point losses vs Minnesota & Virginia. The Panthers have now won 3 of their last 4 including an impressive road win @ St Johns. Their defense has picked up holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 0.90 PPP or less and 5 of their last 6 opponents to less than 60 points. Notre Dame has underperformed all season with just a 2-8 ATS record. They are just 1-5 SU away from home (road or neutral) and their only win was vs Chaminade. In games away from home the Irish are hitting just 42% of their shots while allowing 50%. Last year Pitt was favored at home in this match up 3.5 points and now they are getting 4 points. Too big of a swing in the spread and we really like the way Pitt is playing right now. The dog is 10-3-1 ATS in this series and we like the home puppy getting points here.

#240 ASA PLAY ON 8* Air Force +1.5 over Louisville, Tuesday at 3:15 PM ET - First off we know many of the no-name type bowls are decided by who wants to be there and who doesn’t. We know one thing for sure in this game and that is Air Force is jacked to be playing a Power 5 team so they can prove their worth. The Falcons very rarely get to face a Power 5 opponent facing just 2 since the start of the 2018 season. AF won both of those games vs Colorado & Washington State. The Falcons are great at running the ball ranking 1st nationally and Louisville isn’t a great run defense allowing 157 YPG o the ground. In their season finale vs rival Kentucky the Cards gave up 362 yards rushing in that loss. We expect Louisville to struggle to contain the option offense as it’s something they almost never have to do. Even with time to prepare if you’re not used to it in full game speed it can be very tough. AF is very good on the other side of the ball as well. Not much is made of their defense but they rank 5th nationally allowing just 288 total YPG. Louisville has some opt outs for this game including 2 of their top 4 WR’s. The Falcons have covered 9 of their last 12 bowl games and we know they will bring their bests for this one. Air Force gets the upset.

#233 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Michigan -7 over Nevada, Monday at 11 AM ET - Nevada has lost almost 20 players to opt out and transfer. Their offense will be without starting QB Strong who is one of the top signal callers in the country. That means the Wolfpack will be starting a freshman who attempted 20 passes this season. That’s not the only missing player as the offense is completely decimated, playing without all 3 starting WR’s, starting TE, and 2 starting OL. So with an inexperienced QB and a number of skill players out, Nevada would probably like to run the ball. The problem is they only averaged 73 YPG rushing this season. So it’s not something they do well. Not only are they missing players, head coach Jay Norvell moved on to Colorado State after the regular season. 6 of 10 assistants are gone as well including OC, DC and special teams coordinator. The MAC has struggled this bowl season but this seems like to spot to jump on Western Michigan. We had them rated as the top team in the league this season even though they didn’t win the conference title. They and the #1 YPG differential in MAC play at +140 (conference games only). The Broncos beat the 2 teams that met in the MAC championship and did so handily beating NIU by 21 and Kent by 33. They had a few slips ups on the way mainly because of turnovers as they actually outgained their opponent in every MAC game they played. This game is in Detroit so nearly a home game for the Broncos. Too many distractions and key personnel losses for Nevada and WMU seems motivated for this one. Lay it.

#456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona "pick-em" over Indianapolis, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Great line value with the Cardinals here. We’re laying only 1 point (some spot are at pick-em) with Arizona at home. The line is short because Arizona is coming off 2 straight losses including one vs a bad Detroit team last Sunday. They outgained both LA (by 91 yards) and Detroit (by 61 yards). Last week they were shut out on downs at the Detroit 3, 9, and 30 yard lines. A week earlier vs Rams they were shut out on downs at the LA 14 & 37 and threw a pick at the LA 4 yard line. As you can see they’ve had their chances. On the other end, Indy beat a red hot New England team at home last week. Buy low (Arizona), sell high (Indy) here. To put this number is perspective, let’s look at some of Arizona’s home game spreads and some of Indy’s road game spreads. The Cards were favored by 3 points vs the Rams just a few weeks ago. They were also favored by -6 vs SF and -6.5 vs Green Bay. Indy was +7 @ Buffalo a few weeks ago, +3.5 @ SF, and +7.5 @ Baltimore. You get the point. Football Outsiders DVOA has these teams ranked dead even (8th and 9th) so no home field advantage is factored into this line. These 2 have played nearly identical SOS’s and Zona is +54 YPG and +0.4 YPP while Indy is +18 YPG and +0.1 YPP. Arizona has been the better team for most of the season and now because they’ve had back to back down games, we’re getting them basically as a pick-em at home. Cards win this one.

ASA top play on 10* PHOENIX SUNS -5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 5:10 PM ET - This is certainly a contrarian play as this number doesn’t look right at all. Consider this, the Warriors have been an underdog twice this season. Once recently in Toronto when they sat their starting lineup and again the first game of the season versus the Lakers. The Warriors were recently a 7-point favorite at home against the Suns and won by 22. Phoenix didn’t have Devin Booker in that game and they shot well below their season average by hitting just 38% from the field. The two teams had met in Phoenix prior to that game with the Suns winning by 8-points as a -3.5-point chalk. Phoenix has the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +10.8PPG while the Warriors have a +3.7-point differential on the road. The home team has won 5 straight in this rivalry and all five of those wins came by 6 or more points. Merry Christmas from ASA.

#232 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia St -5.5 over Ball St, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - The MAC continues their terrible bowl run with an 0-4 SU record this year as of this writing (prior to Miami Oh vs North Texas on Thursday) which means this conference is now 7-20 SU their last 27 bowl games. MAC underdogs have been brutal as well with a 20-38-2 ATS record over their last 60. This is a bad match up for Ball State as they struggle to stop the run (93rd nationally) and they are facing a GSU team that ranks 8th nationally averaging 225 YPG rushing. Ball State’s offense has struggled all season as well ranking 109th in total offense so while we don’t see them slowing down Georgia State’s running game, the Cards don’t have the offense to keep up. BSU finished the season losing 3 of their last 5 games with their only wins during that stretch coming vs Buffalo (4-8 record) and Akron (2-10 record) and the Cardinals were outgained in each of those wins. Georgia State closed out the season winning 6 of their last 7 with their only loss coming @ UL Lafayette by 4 points. Not a bad loss at all as ULL won the Sun Belt title and beat a solid Marshall team in their bowl by 15 points. This team also nearly beat Auburn on the road in a game they led by 5 with under 1:00 minute remaining. We expect Ga State to run all over Ball State and get the cover.

ASA top play on 10* INDIANA PACERS -8.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - The Rockets are coming off a big road game in Milwaukee last night and they’ve really struggled when playing without rest. Houston is 0-4 SU on the year when playing the 2nd night of a B2B with a negative differential of minus -17PPG. The Rockets are playing their 6th game in 10 days and 3rd in four nights. Fatigue is going to be a major issue. Indiana is coming off an embarrassing 96-125 loss in Miami on Tuesday night and will be primed for a good effort here. The Pacers are much better than their 13-19 SU record as they rank 13th in offensive efficiency and 16th in DEFF. Houston is 27th in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

#292 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +2.5 over Miami Oh, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET - The MAC conference continues it’s terrible showing in bowl games. They are now 0-4 SU this season and 7-20 SU since 2016. The 2 teams in the MAC that won their respective divisions have already lost this bowl season (NIU & Kent). Miami Oh finished with a 6-6 overall record and beat only 1 team that ended the regular season with a winning record. 3 of their final 4 wins came vs the worst teams in the MAC (Akron, BG, and Buffalo) who had a combined 10-26 record this season. We love the way UNT was playing at the end of the season winning and covering 6 straight. That included a 22 point win over CUSA champs UTSA and a win over UTEP who nearly upset Fresno State in their bowl game. The Mean Green also had a few “impressive” losses @ Liberty, outgaining the Flames by over 100 yards in the loss, and @ Missouri, outgaining the Tigers on their home field. UNT is a great running team ranking 4th nationally averaging 237 YPG on the ground. We love siding with top 10 running teams that can control the line of scrimmage and their bowl history has been great with a 50-28 ATS record the last decade. Miami allowed 151 YPG rushing which ranks them 64th nationally, however they faced 2 top 10 rushing attacks this year (Kent & Army) lost both games and gave up almost 700 combined yards rushing in the process. This will be somewhat of a homefield for North Texas as they are playing just 20 miles from their campus. We think the wrong team is favored here and we like UNT to win this game outright.

ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -6 over OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER - Thunder off a satisfying win over the Grizzlies who had beaten them earlier this season 152-79 and now let down against the rested Nuggets. Denver has been off since the 17th after their game against the Nets was canceled due to covid. It’s not like OKC has a great home court as they are just 5-10 SU at home this year. The Thunder have the 3rd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -5.6PPG. The Nuggets have the 8th best OEFF on the road and should outscore a Thunder offense at home that is 3rd worst in the league at 1.040PPP. Lay it.

#761 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts +8 over South Dakota State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Too many points here. Last year ORU was +4.5 @ SDSU and won the game outright by 2 points. The Golden Eagles return 5 of their top 6 players from last year and will give South Dakota State problems again this season. ORU won the Summit League tourney last year, went to the NCAA tourney and beat both Ohio State and Florida making the Sweet 16 where they lost by 2 points vs Arkansas. We’re getting value in the number on Oral Roberts here. They’ve already played 2 road games vs teams that are rated higher than SDSU and the Golden Eagles were getting fewer points in BOTH of those games (+8 @ TCU and +7.5 @ Missouri State). SDSU, on the other hand, was just favored by 12 points (just 3 points more than this number) on Monday vs a UMKC team ranked nearly 100 spots lower than Oral Roberts. The Jackrabbits have relied on getting to the FT line a lot this year (111th in percentage of points from the FT line) and ORU doesn’t foul very much. On the other end, the Golden Eagles are a very good 3 point shooting team (31st nationally) and 48% of their points come from deep which is 2nd most in the nation. SDSU is poor at defending the arc (257th) so Oral Roberts will have success offensively. We give ORU a decent shot to pull the upset here and they are getting nearly double digits. Take the points.

#226 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Army -6.5 over Missouri, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened -3 in favor of Army and is up to -6.5 for good reason. As long as it stays under a TD we like the Cadets in this one. First of all Missouri has some key offensive moves on Tuesday which moved this number. First their top RB Badie, who led the SEC in rushing yards, will not play in this game. That’s huge blow to the offense as he racked up over 1600 rushing yards and 2nd most ground yards for the Tigers this year was Michael Cox who had only 150 yards. Secondly, their starting QB this year Bazelak will not start in this game. He was apparently beaten out in bowl practices by freshman Brady Cook who will start under center. Bazelak threw for over 2500 yards and 16 TD’s this year. Cook threw for 107 yards and 1 TD. Mizzou coaches might be auditioning Cook for a shot at the starting spot next year but that won’t help the offense here. We know Army runs the ball. They rank #2 in YPG rushing (275) and #2 in rush attempts per game. That’s a huge problem for the Tigers as they ended the regular season as one of the worst rush defenses in college football allowing 224 YPG (120th). On top of that, they haven’t faced anything close to an option offense and while they have had time to try and figure it out, their DC Wilks spent the last 14 seasons in the NFL so he hasn’t faced it period. Army is off a disappointing loss to Navy which will help fuel them for this game. We know the Cadets always bring their best in bowl games winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming last year by 3 points vs West Virginia. We like Army to win this one by at least a TD.

ASA play on 8* Detroit Pistons +7 over New York Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - NBA scoring is trending up right now, yet this game has an extremely low total of 207 which means limited scoring from each team. That makes the Pistons a “buy” with this generous numbers. Are the Knicks ready to lay this type of number? We don’t think so. The Knicks are 1-6 ATS as a -7 or more favorite this season and have an overall +/- of -1.5PPG on the season. Looking at the Pistons last three games as double-digit dogs we find they were against much better teams at Indiana, Phoenix and the Lakers. The Pistons are coming off a much-needed win over the Heat but had lost 14 straight prior to that W but half of those losses were by 10-points or less. The Knicks are on an 8-16 SU their last 24 games and shouldn’t be laying this many points against the young Pistons.

#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Villanova -5.5 over Xavier, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We are siding with one of the best teams in the nation coming off 2 losses. This is a great spot to jump on Nova at home. The Cats lost their last 2 games @ Baylor and @ Creighton, with their most recent game vs the Blue Jays being their worst effort of the season. We look for them to play very well at home in a must win type game early in the season. They have only played 3 home games this season which resulted in wins of 40, 29, and 19 points. They are 35-3 SU their last 38 home games! The Wildcats have prepared themselves well by playing one of the top 10 SOS’s in the country. Nova has already faced FOUR teams ranked in Ken Pom’s top 10 – Baylor, Purdue, UCLA, and Tennessee. The rolled Tennessee and led by double digits in the 2nd half vs both Purdue & UCLA before losing tight games. Xavier is solid but they’ve feasted on home games so far this season. They’ve played just ONE true road game @ Oklahoma State a few weeks ago. Despite shooting a terrible 10 of 50 from 3-point land their last 2 games Villanova is still ranked 8th nationally in efficiency averaging 1.14 points per possession and they are still making a very solid 36.2% of their 3’s on the season. The favorite has covered 13 of the last 17 in this Big East battle and Xavier is 0-6 SU @ Villanova since joining the Big East. We like Nova to bounce back in a big way at home tonight.

#337 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +7 over LA Rams, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Seattle is fairly healthy for this game, with the exception of WR Lockett, while we still don’t know who is in or out for the LA Rams due to Covid protocols. It looks like LA’s TE Higbee and a starting OL will most likely miss this one along with a few key defensive players. LA won the first meeting @ Seattle by 9 but that was the game QB Russell Wilson injured his finger and he sat out the entire 2nd half. Geno Smith took played a significant role for the first time since 2017 and Seattle still only lost by 9. Wilson is now back and getting healthier every week. The Seattle offense, which really struggled when Wilson first came back, has now put up 63 points the last 2 weeks. Their season long offensive stats are misleading with Wilson sitting out 3.5 games and not being fully healthy when he did come back. The defense has been flying under the radar but playing very well allowing 23 points or less in 8 straight games. They’ve won 2 straight including a win over a very good San Francisco team 2 weeks ago. The Rams seem to have gotten back on track after a 3 game losing streak but we’re not so sure. They beat Jacksonville 2 weeks ago in a win that doesn’t mean much as the Jags are terrible and obviously had internal problems. Last week they beat Arizona but were outgained by almost 100 yards in that game. The Cards then proceeded to lose @ Detroit by 18 points so maybe that LA win over Arizona wasn’t what it was made out to be. The last 6 games in this NFC West rivalry have all had a spread of 3 points or less. Now we’re getting a full TD with Seattle. For comparison’s sake, Seattle was +3 @ Green Bay in Wilson’s first game back from injury. This number is too high. The Rams overvalued losing 5 of their last 6 ATS as a favorite and 7 of 10 as a chalk this season. Seattle keeps this close.

#306227 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Maryland Eastern Shore +12.5 over Charlotte, Monday at 7 PM ET - UMES is undervalued right now as they step into this game with a perfect 7-0 ATS record. They have played well on the road winning 2 games already as an underdog and losing by 12 or less @ UConn, @ St Joes, @ Liberty, and @ Campbell, all teams rated higher than this Charlotte squad. UMES has some momentum winning 3 in a row and they’ve had 9 days off to rest up and get ready for this one. Charlotte just played Friday in a huge game for them @ Wake Forest. They lost by 3 but the final was misleading as Wake led the game by 19 before Charlotte made a furious comeback. With only a few days rest we anticipate a letdown here. The 49ers are 5-5 this year and their home wins have come by 2, 7 and 12 points along with a 17 point home loss vs Davidson. Not one of their wins this season has come by more than 12 points. The 49ers are poor defensively ranking 325th in eFG% allowed so they have a tough time pulling away in their games. UMES doesn’t have great overall stats on the year but they don’t turn the ball over and they shoot the 3 quite well at 35%. Facing a Charlotte defense that allows opponents to hit 35.6% (ranked 266th) we like Maryland Eastern Shore to hang around in this game. Take the points.

#220 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Old Dominion +9.5 over Tulsa, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - We can look at ODU’s year almost as 2 separate seasons. They started the year losing 6 of their first 7 and ended winning 5 straight. The positive run came with the Monarchs switched starting QB’s with Wolff taking over for their game vs Western Kentucky. He led them to a 5-1 record with their only loss coming vs Western Kentucky which wasn’t a surprise with WKU’s powerful offense (they beat App St in bowl game). In those 6 games Wolff threw for over 1700 yards with 10 TD’s. Prior to that they had thrown for only 850 yards and 5 TD’s in 6 games. They also inserted RB Olson right around that time and he ran for over 100 yards in 6 of his 7 starts. Throwing out their game vs FCS Hampton, the Monarchs averaged 19 PPG over their first 5 and when they made the switch at QB & RB they averaged 33 PPG including a win @ Middle Tenn St who just beat Toledo in their bowl game as 10 point dogs. In fact, Conference USA teams have shown the league may have been underrated as they’ve been underdogs in all 5 of their bowl games thus far, winning 3 of those games outright with a 4-1 ATS mark. Tulsa was 6-6 as well on the season but 5 of their 6 wins came by 8 points or less. The only double digit win they had this season was vs Temple, one of the worst teams in the nation. They were outscored on the year (26-27 average score) and their QB Brin had a tendency to give it away throwing 16 picks on the season – the most in the nation. Tulsa also comes into this game without 3 of their assistant coaches who’ve moved on including their DC. We like the way ODU is playing with confidence the 2nd half of the season and we like their shot to win this game outright. We’ll take the points as a nice cushion.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - The Wolves have made great strides defensively this season and it’s showing in their record. Minnesota ranks 11th in defensive efficiency this season after ranking 28th a year ago. The Wolves are averaging 108.7PPG which is 12th best in the NBA and are the 10th best rebounding team. Dallas is 26th in scoring this year and the 24th worst offense rebound team in the NBA. Dallas does hold teams to 104.6PPG this year but a lot of that has to do with how slow they play (3rd slowest in the NBA). The Mavs have the 22nd ranked FG% defense in the league. The Wolves have three impressive wins in a row over Portland, Denver and the Lakers most recently by 18-points. The Mavs are coming off a 3-point loss to that same Lakers team. Lay the points with Minnesota.

#324 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -9 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - While these 2 teams have similar records – SF 7-6 / Atlanta 6-7 – this is a mismatch which is why the line sits where it is. The Niners rate as the 8th best team in the NFL DVOA per Football Outsiders ranking 6th in offense and 8th in defense. Atlanta ranks dead last in the NFL DVOA and 29th in offense, 30th in defense. Atlanta has beaten the lower tier teams in the NFL (Jacksonville, NY Jets, NYG, etc…) but when facing solid teams, they’ve been smoked. They’ve played only 5 games (out of 13) this season vs teams that currently have a winning record. The Birds are 0-5 both SU & ATS in those games and they’ve been outscored 178-51 in those games for an average score of 35-10! All of those losses came by at least 15 points and they were not fluky losses as Atlanta was outgained 6.0 YPP to 4.4 YPP in those 5 games combined. SF is playing their best football of the year winning 4 of their last 5 despite being on the road 3 of the last 4 weeks. They’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 7 teams that are currently above .500 with 5 of those teams landing in the top 10 overall DVOA. Despite the difference in SOS, the Niners have a +0.5 YPP differential and a +28 point differential on the season while Atlanta is -0.5 YPP with a -108 point differential (2nd worst in the NFC ahead of only Detroit). Even in the 6 games Atlanta has won this year, they were outgained in 5 of those contests. San Fran is making a push for the playoffs and this is a crucial game at home. They are facing an Atlanta team that is much worse than their record and playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. We like the Niners to roll to a double digit win in this game.

#215 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State -7 over Utah State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - USU could be a bit overvalued here after destroying San Diego State in the MWC Championship game a few weeks ago. SDSU was not at full strength for the game with a number of players out with Covid which not only affected the game, but their practice situation leading up to the game. USU played the much weaker schedule especially down the stretch where they faced just 1 bowl team in their final 7 regular season games and that was Wyoming, a game USU lost 44-17. The Aggies defense does not match up well with Oregon State’s offense. They ranked 82nd nationally stopping the run (allowed 163 YPG) yet faced only 3 teams ranked in the top 40 in rushing and 6 teams ranked below 95th in rushing. In their games vs top 40 rushing teams they allowed 437 yards on the ground (Air Force), 363 (Wyoming), and 221 (BYU). Oregon State averages 219 YPG rushing which is 13th nationally and will control the trenches here. The overall numbers favor OSU as well despite playing the much tougher schedule. The Beavers finished with a YPP differential of +0.7 and USU was +0.2 for the year. Motivation is always something that needs to be addressed in early bowl games and both will bring their best here. Many times a team from a Power 5 conference may not be thrilled to be playing a team from a lesser conference but that won’t be the case here as Oregon State has not been to a bowl game since 2014 so they are thrilled to be here. If both teams bring it, OSU is the better team and should win by more than a TD.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 over NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - Something isn’t quite right with this number and it looks very much like a trap to bet on the Knicks. So, we’ll side with Boston here minus the points. Granted the Celtics are coming off a game last night, but they also had 3 days off prior to Friday’s action so lack of rest isn’t an issue. The Knicks started the season out hot with a 5-1 SU record in October but since then they’ve struggled with an 8-15 run. In the Knicks most recent nine games they have just 2 wins and they came at the expense of the 9-20 Rockets and 10-17 Spurs. On paper the Celtics look similar to the Knicks with a 1-5 SU record in their last five games but take a look at that schedule. They’ve faced the Lakers, Clippers, Suns, Bucks and Warriors. Those five teams all rank top 9 in defensive efficiency and now the Celtics face a New York team that is 22nd in DEFF. Boston has advantages on the offensive end of the floor with the 13th highest scoring average compared to the Knicks 23rd ranked average. New York beat Boston in October at home by 4 in OT and we like the Celtics to get a measure of revenge here with a double-digit win.

#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Mary’s -2 over San Diego State, Friday at 10 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Phoenix. St Mary’s has been waiting for this one. That’s because when these two faced off last year (first time in 10 years) SDSU embarrassed the Gaels 74-49. St Mary’s returned 100% of their minutes from last year so this veteran team was all there last year during that debacle. They are 10-2 this year and have already beaten 3 top 100 teams. San Diego State is 0-3 vs top 100 teams this year with 2 of those losses coming by double digits. The Aztecs are a poor shooting team which will be a problem here vs the 8th most efficient defense in the nation. SDSU ranks 302nd in FG%, 312th in 3 point FG%, and 320th in scoring. On top of that they only make 66% of their FT’s. San Diego State is 6-3 on the year but they’ve also had some luck on their side as their opponents have only shot 60% from the FT in games vs the Aztecs which is the 4th worst in the nation. Both teams are very good defensively but St Mary’s is the much better shooting team, extra motivated, and one of the more veteran teams in college basketball. This number is too small in our opinion. Take St Mary’s.

#203 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Coastal Carolina -10.5 over Northern Illinois, Friday at 6 PM ET - Based on this year’s stats and our film study, Coastal is the much better team in this match up. We also think there is some line value with Coastal. They were just favored at South Alabama by 14.5 to end the season and now laying just 10.5 on a neutral vs Northern Illinois team we have power rated almost dead even with South Alabama. CC had just 2 losses this year by a combined 5 points. They were +165 YPG and +2.3 YPP on the season with a average winning margin of +20 points per game. NIU won the MAC but they’ve been fairly shaky all season. If you throw out their game vs FCS Maine, the Huskies were outgained by 82 YPG on the season and had a YPP differential of -0.7. Despite winning the MAC they were outscored on the season as well. Their numbers equated to a .500 or below team. CC is far superior defensively allowing 122 fewer YPG than NIU. Offensively they are a bit closer however on a YPP basis the Chanticleers average a full 1.6 YPP more than the Huskies. Coastal seems to be motivated for this game after losing in this bowl last year in OT vs Liberty. QB McCall, who leads the nation in passing efficiency and yards per pass attempt (12.2), has stated they really want this game for the seniors and they are completely focused on winning this bowl game. If both teams play their “A” game, this is a blowout. The only chance NIU has is if Coastal is flat and uninterested or they turn the ball over a bunch. Lay the points.

#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -3 over LA Chargers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - KC playing as well as anyone in the AFC right now winning 6 straight and 8 of their last 10. After struggling early in the season, their defense has been outstanding allowing single digits in 4 of their last 5 games and they’ve allowed just 13 PPG over their last 8 games. LA won the first meeting of the season @ KC 30-24. However the Chiefs outgained the Chargers but had 4 turnovers in the game (0 for LA) including 3 giveaways inside the LA 40 yard line. While KC’s defense has kicked it in high gear, the Chargers defense has gotten worse as the season has progressed. They have allowed an average of 29 PPG over their last 9 games. LA really has very little to no home field advantage as many times their opponent has as many fans in the stadium as the Chargers do. They are just 3-3 SU at home with their 3 wins coming vs Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, and Cleveland, all teams that are currently .500 or below. The Chiefs are 3-2 SU on the road this year outgained their opponents 445 to 337 and outscoring them by an average of 30-24. The road team in this AFC West battle has won 8 of the last 10 meetings outright. As these 2 battle for the lead in the division (KC up by 1 game over LA) we’ll side with the experienced team, QB, and coach who is used to this situation. Lay the FG with KC.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +2.5 over Washington Wizards, 10 PM ET - The Kings are coming off a couple road losses and return home where they had won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The Kings held a player only meeting after the recent 3 game road trip and aired some differences regarding effort amongst the team. Now that they are back at home, we expect a much better effort in this one. Washington meanwhile is coming off a tough game in the higher altitude of Denver on Monday night and will be shorthanded again here without Kyle Kuzma who is in Covid protocol. The Wizards opened the season by winning 6 of their first eleven road games but have since lost four of five away from home. Washington has the 21st worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -3.9PPG. If you look at overall season statistics it shows Washington has an advantage defensively but when you focus on their last five games the Kings have the better defensive efficiency numbers. Offensively the Kings have been better all season long and in their most recent five games too at 1.126-points per possession. Sacramento gets it done tonight at home.

ASA play on 8* Indiana Pacers -2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - Clearly the Bucks injuries and Covid issues have impacted this line to have the Pacers a road favorite but according to our model the number is still manageable and predicts a Pacers win by 8-points. The Pacers are much better than their 12-17 record would indicate as they are top 12 in the NBA in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. This team has four players averaging over 12PPG in scoring, three of which are all over 16PPG in Brogdon, LeVert and Sabonis. They are also the 4th best defensive rebounding and 13th best offensive rebounding team in the league. The Bucks will be without Giannis and his 27PPG along with 11.6RPG which is obviously a significant loss. Milwaukee may also be without Khris Middleton (18PPG, 6RPG) who hyperextended his knee the other night against the Celtics. Indiana is coming off a tough 2-point home loss to the Warriors but had won 3 straight prior to that and are playing well right now. Indiana is favored for a reason. Lay the points.

#660 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -2.5 over South Dakota State, Wed at 7 PM ET - Terrible spot for South Dakota State here. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and coming off an upset win over Washington State (game played in Spokane). They won by just 3 points in a game they shot 62% from beyond the arc with Washington State hitting only 25% of their triples. Wash State also played without one of their better players (Jackson) in that game. Prior to that win, SDSU lost @ Idaho by 14 on Wednesday. That’s an Idaho team that ranks below 300 and whose only win previous to beating the Jackrabbits was over something called George Fox University. Missouri State returns all 5 starters from a team that went 17-7 last season. One of those starters is out with an injury but they are experienced on their bench as well. The Bears are currently rated as the 2nd best team in the MVC only behind Loyola Chicago. They are a solid shooting team that is facing a most likely tired and terrible defensive team in South Dakota State – ranks below 250th in most major defensive categories. If they need to protect a lead late MSU hits 80% from the line as a team. Great spot for the Bears facing a SDSU team that has traveled to Idaho, then Washington, and now Missouri all in the span of a week.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +3 over Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Scheduling certainly favors the home team Blazers as the Suns are off a game last night against the Clippers. That’s significant considering the multitude of injuries the Suns currently have with 6 players out including starters Booker and Ayton. Portland has been much better at home than on the road this year with a 10-5 SU season record and four of those losses have come this month. Portland is coming off a home loss as a favorite and primed for this huge Western Conference showdown. This will be the third meeting of the season with the home team winning both and 6 of the last seven meetings. Phoenix has been dominating this season but that is with a full supporting cast. Not tonight. Bet the Blazers.

#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -9 over Georgia State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - MSU is off back to back losses vs Minnesota & Colorado State and they really need this win at home. Each of those losses was decided in the final seconds as MSU was tied with Minnesota with under 1 minute remaining and they led CSU by 8 with less than 6 minutes remaining and lost by 3. The Bulldogs were 6-1 SU prior to those losses with their only setback coming vs Louisville. Georgia State is 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming in OT @ High Point. The 2 top 100 teams they faced on the road both routed this team with Richmond winning by 16 and Rhode Island winning by 35. Both of those teams rank lower than this Mississippi State team. GSU plays terrible defense which is why they struggle on the road. The Panthers rank 357th in eFG% defense and 355th in 3 point FG defense allowing teams to shoot a ridiculous 43% from deep. MSU is 68th nationally in defensive efficiency and will be the highest rated defense that Georgia State has faced this year. MSU also has a huge size advantage (69th nationally in average height with GSU 348th in that category) and should control the glass on both ends. The Bulldogs shoot very well at home (50% overall & 41% from deep) and they will have their way vs this poor GSU defense. Must win for MSU off 2 losses and they play with urgency tonight.

#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -2.5 over LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Rams simply aren’t playing very well. Prior to last week’s win over Jacksonville they had lost 5 straight vs the number by 62 points losing by an average of 12 points to the number. They are 5-4 SU over their last 9 games with their wins coming vs Houston, Jacksonville, Detroit, NY Giants, and Seattle with Geno Smith at QB. The first 3 listed rank 29th, 30th, and 31st DVOA on Football Outsiders. Anytime they’ve faced a team with a pulse as of late, they’ve come up short (losses vs GB, Arizona, SF, and Tennessee over the last 9 games). QB Stafford has a bad back and sore arm and it has showed in his performance as 5 of his 9 interceptions on the season have come in the last 4 games. The Rams also have Covid issues right now with starting RT and Center out along with starting RB Henderson. Arizona came off bye 2 weeks ago and they are much healthier then the Rams right now. QB Murray is back and he has his full complement of WR’s in the line up. With Murray at QB they have scored 30+ points in 7 of 9 games. Cards are 10-2 on the season (9-3 ATS) with their only losses coming by 3 points vs Green Bay and at home vs Carolina when Murray was out. That was in fact their last home game which was nearly a month ago. Arizona will be ready to make amends for that embarrassing loss. These 2 met in LA this year and the Cardinals were + total yardage, + yards per pass attempt, + yards per rush attempt and won the game 37-20. Arizona is 4-0 both SU & ATS vs division foes this year and they get another win and cover on Monday.