#876 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville -1.5 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Cards are coming off a 78-72 loss @ Miami in a game they were favored by -4.5 points. Their starting guards, Jones and Johnson, both shoot around 40% from 3-point land combined for 2 of 9 from deep on Saturday. The Cards as a team made only 3 of 20 from deep which was the difference in the game. The should fare much better at home on Monday vs an FSU defense that is poor at defending the arc (263rd nationally). The Noles topped North Carolina on Saturday, however the Heels, who entered Saturday ranked 11th in the ACC in 3-point shooting, made 10 shots from deep vs FSU. The Noles had a long 2+ week break recently due to covid issues and they’ve had 2 games since that break both at home last Wednesday and on Saturday. They won both games and their offense was ridiculously good. Over the 2 games they made 65 of their 108 shot attempts (60%), 20 of their 34 three point attempts (59%), and 37 of their 38 FT attempts (97%). While they do have an efficient offense, those numbers are not sustainable especially now that they take the road for only the 2nd time this season. Their first road game was @ Clemson and FSU lost that game by 10 shooting 42% overall and just 28% from deep. They are facing a very solid Louisville defense (allowing 0.93 PPP) coming off one of their worst efforts of the year on Saturday as Miami hit them for 1.15 PPP. Expect the Cards to play very well defensively on Monday. FSU is also a bit banged up with guards Barnes (11 PPG) possibly out and and Walker (16 PPG) a game time decision. Louisville is 7-0 at home this year and they are also 19-4 their last 23 home meetings with FSU. The Noles are a bit overvalued right now and Louisville is at home off a loss. Nice spot to lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7 @ Dallas Mavericks, 3 PM ET - The Bulls have lost four straight games, but they’ve been competitive in all of those losing by a combined 11 total points. Prior to this losing streak they had won 4 of five games including a win at home over this Dallas team. In their last four game the Bulls lost to the Clippers by 3-points and the Lakers by 2-points, both on the road. As a dog this season the Bulls have covered 8 of ten games. The Mavs look like a MASH unit right now with several key contributors currently sidelined, but they did recently get Porzingis back in the lineup. Dallas is also on a nice spread run with five straight covers but all but one of those were as a dog or small favorite. The Mavs have a winning record at 6-5 SU with an average point differential of +4.3PPG which is not enough to cover here. Chicago has a negative differential of -4.8PPG this season which is good enough to get the money here. Dallas may win this game but it won’t be by a wide margin.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore +2.5 over Buffalo, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - The Ravens should have a huge advantage on the ground in this game. They are the #1 rush offense in the NFL (191 YPG) and they’ve been on fire as of late averaging 262 YPG rushing over their last 6 games including topping 230 yards rushing in 5 of those games. That success should continue facing a Buffalo defense that allows 4.7 YPG (27th in the NFL) and gave up 163 yards on 5.4 YPC last week vs Indy. The Bills found a way to win that game but they were outgained on the ground and through the air in that one. Buffalo is a poor running team already and lost their top RB Moss to an injury last week. Baltimore has a fairly large edge overall defensively ranking in the top 10 in many key categories. They have the highest blitz rate in the NFL and we think Buffalo QB Allen will make some mistakes because of that pressure. Last week the Ravens held the Titans (6th ranked offense in the NFL) to just 209 total yards. Baltimore head coach Harbaugh is a great road playoff coach has he now owns the all time record for wins on the road in the post season with 8. He has a road warrior type team as the Ravens are 15-3 SU their last 18 road games and 13-4 ATS their last 17 road playoff games. Not only that, Baltimore QB Jackson has started 39 games in his career and only lost 3 of those by more than 6 points so when they do lose, it’s close. Baltimore led the NFL in point differential for the 2nd straight year and we feel they are undervalued. With very little to no home field advantage and the way the Ravens perform on the road, we’ll take the points here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

The Maple Leafs are looking for immediate revenge in this one after getting embarrassed 5-3 at Ottawa last night.  That being said, the value here is with the puck line.  Toronto is a -200 favorite on the money line but available right around +125 money on the puck line.  Can we expect a win by two or more goals here?  Yes!  Look for at least a margin of 2 goals in this one!  The Maple Leafs were guilty of overlooking the Senators last night but will make up for that tonight.  Ottawa comes into this season projected to be one of the worst teams in the league while the Maple Leafs are projected to be one of the best.   The Leafs simply overlooked the Sens knowing Ottawa was playing their first game in 10 months while Toronto was off an emotional 4-3 OT win over Montreal on opening night.  The set up was a bad one for the Maple Leafs last night but now on Saturday it is exactly the opposite and Toronto should roll here.  Last season the Maple Leafs won 18 road games and 15 of those victories came by a margin of at least 2 goals. Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a great come back price, currently in +125 range) with Toronto is the value play here

ASA PLAY ON 8* Green Bay -6.5 over LA Rams, Saturday at 4:35 PM ET - We like the Packers at home laying under a TD in this one. Historically this is a terrible spot for the Rams as teams coming off a SU win as an underdog in the Wildcard round are just 22-36 ATS as an underdog in the Divisional round (only 12-46 SU in that spot). The Rams are banged up at a number of key positions including both offensive tackles, DT Aaron Donald, and QB Jared Goff. He was already struggling throwing the ball over the final month of the season and now he had surgery on his hand a few weeks ago and struggled to grip the ball last week. Now in the cold weather, where Goff has been terrible anyway (0 TD’s and 5 interceptions in the 2 games in his career below 30 degrees) we can’t foresee him having a good game. The Rams will go heavy with the run game here, but they will still need Goff to play very well to win this game and we just don’t see it. The Packers are rested and unlike Goff, Aaron Rodgers has been great in cold weather with a passer rating of 108.7 with 10 TD’s and just 1 interception in his last 10 games in temps below 30 degrees (windchill on Saturday will be in the mid 20’s). While GB has had a week off to prepare and rest up, the Rams will be playing in their 10th consecutive week. Tough situation especially when you’re already banged up. While we respect the Rams defense and expect they will have some success against the GB offense, we still feel the Packers will put numbers on the board here. Only 3 of the Rams opponents this season in their 17 games played ranked in the top 10 in total offense to end the season. Two of those opponents (Buffalo & TB) scored 35 & 24 points respectively, far more than LA’s season average of 18.6 PPG allowed. GB will definitely be one of the top few offenses this defense has faced this season. We don’t think LA’s offense with an inaccurate and injured QB will keep up here. Lay it.

#691 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -4.5 over Texas Tech, 4:00 PM ET - Baylor has been one of two dominant teams this year along with Gonzaga. The Bears are 11-0 with all 11 wins coming by double digits. That includes 4 wins vs top 100 teams and an 13 point win vs an outstanding Illinois team who ranks 8th nationally in the power rankings. Their average margin of victory on the season is +28 points. They rank in the top 5 nationally in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency. The Bears also rank in the top 10 nationally in eFG%, 3 point %, and offensive rebounding. This is as complete a team as you’ll find in the nation. Texas Tech is solid. They are not on the same level as Baylor. The Red Raiders have already lost 2 home games vs Oklahoma State & Kansas. They have won just 2 games this season vs top 50 teams both by margins of 2 points. Tech is coming off a huge won @ Texas winning 79-77 on a last second shot by Mac McClung. The Raiders were more than fortunate as they led that game for a total of 45 seconds. Baylor won both games in this Big 12 series last year and the Bears have taken a big step forward while our ratings have Tech at about the same level as a year ago. We actually feel Tech is a bit overvalued as they’ve lost 5 straight home games to the number. Baylor is the much better team this season and we’ll lay the small number.

#646 ASA PLAY ON 8* Minnesota +6 over Michigan, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - We think the Gophers have a great shot to pull off the upset here. Michigan steps in with an undefeated 10-0 record but they’ve played the easiest conference schedule to date. They’ve already faced Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, and Maryland, the 4 lowest power rated teams in the conference. The Wolverines have also been on the road for only 2 of their 10 games this season and those games were back in December vs Northwestern and Maryland, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the Big 10. Michigan is also coming off a huge win over Wisconsin (their only top tier conference opponent they’ve faced) and they played the perfect game. They hit 52% of their shots, 56% of their 3’s. and 100% of their FT’s. Wisconsin shot and play terribly in the game and that win has now pushed Michigan into the overvalued category in our opinion. We fully expect a come back to earth, letdown game for the Wolverines. Minnesota’s home / road dichotomy is as drastic as any in the nation. They stink on the road. They are 0-4 on the road getting beat by double digits in each. That includes an 82-57 loss @ Michigan just 10 days ago. Can you say quick revenge? At home the Gophers are 10-0 with wins over top tier Big 10 teams Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State, and a win over the top team in the A10 conference St Louis. Minnesota is on the opposite end of the spectrum strength of schedule wise having faced the toughest slate in the Big 10 to date including games vs Iowa (twice), Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, and Ohio State. This will be their 7th straight game vs a ranked opponent. They are also off 2 straight losses (both on the road) and they’ve had since last Sunday to get ready for this game. In the first meeting Minnesota was a 7.5 point dog @ Michigan and now they are getting nearly the same. Last year the Gophs were favored by 2 at home in this match up and won by 2. Value is absolutely on Minnesota and we’ll take it.

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -7.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7:30 PM ET - We have waited for a spot to play on the Raptors and this is a solid one. Toronto has gotten off to a horrible start by their expectations and are coming off a 4 game West coast road trip where they went 1-3 SU. They have just 2 wins on the season after going 53-19 in the regular season a year ago. Charlotte hasn’t been a great road team going 27-48 SU the past two years, last season they had the 4th worst average loss margin in the NBA of -8.1PPG. The Hornets are in a bad scheduling situation here playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back to back after a game last night versus Dallas. This line is set up to draw Charlotte money and we won’t bite. Back the Raptors in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Utah +1.5 over Stanford, 5 PM ET *Early tip* With public money immediately flowing in on Stanford this line moved the opposite direction which grabbed our attention. Utah has some tremendous offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency numbers despite playing a brutally tough schedule. The Utes have lost four straight games, but it came against teams rated 28th or better by Kenpom. Utah lost three of those games close to UCLA by 2, Oregon by 6 and Colorado by 7-points and they got outscored from the charity strip by 16 in that one. Stanford has won 3 in a row, but they’ve been playing the bottom of the Pac 12 conference unlike Utah. The Cardinal’s two toughest games have been against Arizona who they beat by 3 and Oregon who they lost by 17. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and Utah is in a desperate situation here. Bet against the public and play on Utah here.

#661 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State +4.5 over Florida State, Wed at 6:30 PM ET - We think this NC State team is undervalued. They are 6-3 on the season but definitely better than their record. This team has only been at 100% for a few games this season as starters Hayes and Funderburk (now coming off bench) have missed a few key games. The Wolfpack are coming off 2 straight losses @ Clemson in OT and at home vs an underrated Miami team in tight game over the weekend. The Canes shot the lights out over the weekend hitting nearly 50% of their shots with NC State hitting only 38% yet the game went to the wire. Because of Covid issues, Florida State hasn’t played in over 2 weeks. Their last game was a 10 point loss @ Clemson on December 29th. Tough to not play a game for that long and come back at an optimum level. Despite their 6-3 record, the Wolfpack are +12 PPG on the season while the 5-2 Seminoles are +8 PPG with a very similar strength of schedule. FSU head coach Leonard Hamilton was blunt about the interruption, "In practice we very seldom, ever, ever have a starting lineup together. We never practice who starts together. We practice different lineups and different groups of guys every day. ... Because we have different mixtures. Everybody's got to blend in." FSU won both games last year in tight fashion with margins of 5 & 6 points giving a little extra motivation to the Wolfpack. We think NC State has a great shot to win this one and we’re getting a decent cushion with the pointspread here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +1 over Denver Nuggets, 7:30 PM ET - The Nets are off back-to-back losses and look to bounce back at home over Denver. Brooklyn had to play a few games without Kevin Durant who was in Covid protocols, then were without Kyrie Irving for a few games. No Irving here but they do have KD who scored 36-points in their most recent home loss to OKC. Brooklyn is currently in elite company in the NBA with a top 11 efficiency rating in both offense and defense with only the Bucks as the other team that can make that claim. Denver has the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the league, but their defense ranks near the bottom on the NBA at 25th in defensive efficiency. Denver is 4-1 SU their last five games but two of those wins came over a bad Minnesota team, Dallas and Philly were both short-handed with Covid issues and the Knicks are really struggling right now. The current perception is the Nuggets are playing well but that’s a byproduct of weak competition. The Nets are off a pair of losses and motivated at home. Nuggets have not covered as a dog in four straight.

#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech +2 over Duke, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Duke has been shaky at best all season long with a 6-2 record and their only top 100 win coming vs Notre Dame. The Devils have played only one road game all season and that was over 3 weeks ago. They have played only 2 games since December 16th due to some covid issues. In their 2 games since December 16th they had to come from 16 points down at home to beat a 2-9 Boston College team by 1 points. Duke also beat Wake Forest at home by 11 but the game was much closer than that as the game was tied midway through the 2nd half and they didn’t take their first 10+ point lead until 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. This is a very young team that isn’t built to win games on the road. They rarely get to the FT line (13% of their points from the line – 327th nationally) and they’re poor at defending the arc. Va Tech is 9-2 on the season and their only loss since December 8th was a 2 point loss @ Louisville. They are very solid 3-point shooting team hitting 36% which matches up very nicely vs this Duke defense. The Hokies have covered 5 of their last 6 and remain very underrated in our opinion. This Duke team is nowhere near as good as their teams yet they are still getting the respect because of their name. They are just 1-6 ATS their last 7 games and we’re getting the better team at home around a pick-em here. Take Virginia Tech.

ASA top play on 10* Loyola Chicago -6.5 over Indiana State, 7PM ET - Loyola Chicago was thrown a “Covid-curveball” when they were scheduled to play Missouri Valley leader Drake this past weekend but instead faced Indiana State. Because of a Covid outbreak on Drakes roster the Ramblers were instead forced to change last minute and travel to play Indiana State. In an obvious let down situation Loyola lost to the Sycamores by 5-points with the big difference in the game being a +12 margin of made free throws for Indiana State. Loyola was projected to be one of the best teams in the MVC this season while Indiana State was expected to finish near the bottom. In fact, the Ramblers rate higher in our power ratings than undefeated Drake, who beat Indiana State on their home court by 18 and 7-points. Prior to the upset in the game Sunday to Indiana State, the Ramblers two previous losses were to quality foes Richmond and Wisconsin. Loyola is the most efficient offense in the Missouri Valley and 2nd in defensive efficiency. Indiana State is the 4th worst in OEFF, 6th worst in DEFF. The Ramblers get payback here after the upset Sunday.

ASA play on 8* DePaul +5.5 over UConn, 6PM ET - We like the spot here and the number as UConn recently beat DePaul as an 8-point home favorite. UConn shot 49% from the field and 41% from beyond the arc while DePaul had a very poor shooting night at 38% overall and 24% from three. The Huskies also got a huge night from guard Bouknight (potential Big East player of the year) who scored 20-points, grabbed 4 rebounds and handed out 3 assists. Bouknight is doubtful here or at the minimum will not be 100% after suffering a hyper-extended elbow recently. We are betting UConn doesn’t shoot nearly as well here, playing their 3rd straight road game, and having season averages of 43.7FG% overall and 36.5% 3-point percentage which are well below what they shot in the first meeting with the Demons. On the other hand we expect DePaul to shoot closer to their regular season averages of 46.9% and 37.8% (3pt). Take the revenge minded home dog here.

#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -5.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers are a perennial playoff team having made the post-season in 8 of Mike Tomlin’s 14 years as head coach. They know what the playoffs are all about. That gives them a big advantage here over a Cleveland team that is in the post-season for the first time in 18 years. The playoffs are a different animal. That’s why inexperienced QB’s tend to struggle at this time of year. In fact, QB’s making their first playoff appearance (Mayfield) are 14-36 ATS. It’s just really tough to prepare for something you don’t know or you’ve never been a part of. These two met last week in Cleveland and the Browns were in a must win and still barely won the game 24-22. That was with Pittsburgh sitting QB Roethlisberger and a number of other starters including most of their key defensive players. Pittsburgh STILL outgained Cleveland for the game and on a YPP basis with Mason Rudolph at QB. Their other meeting this year when both teams were at full strength, the Steelers won 38-7. Not only is Cleveland new to this experience, they’ve been dealing with plenty of distractions this week. Their facilities have been closed all week due to Covid. They’ve been preparing for this game virtually. On top of that their head coach Stefanski, who’s led their resurgent offense, won’t be at this game due to Covid. A number of players are potentially out as well for the same reason. A less than ideal situation leading into a playoff game to say least. Cleveland’s offense doesn’t match up well in this game. The Steelers have the #1 defense in the league when it comes to pressuring the QB. Mayfield stinks when under pressure (43% completion rate). Pitt sacked him 8 times in the 2 meeting and in the game @ Pittsburgh they held Mayfield to his lowest QBR of the season. The Browns are the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential on the season and they have lost 17 straight here in Pittsburgh. We’ll lay it and say the Steelers win by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -3 over Phoenix Suns, 7 PM ET - Two of the best defenses square off here when Phoenix rolls into Indianapolis for a game against the Pacers. Indiana has a scheduling advantage with the Suns come off a game last night in Detroit while the Pacers are rested. This will also be the Suns 3rd game in four days. Early on the Suns led the league in defensive efficiency but they’ve been steadily dropping in that category as the season has gone on. Indiana on the other hand has not and they can defend every position with the 7th best defensive efficiency in the NBA. The Pacers can also shoot it with the 2nd best overall FG% offense in the NBA at 49%. Indiana is 3-0-1 ATS their last four home games against a team with a winning road record and they catch the Suns in a favorable situation.

#616 ASA CBB PLAY ON 8* Rutgers -3 over Ohio State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We’ve been waiting for this rematch for a few weeks now. These two Big 10 programs met just before Xmas @ Ohio State and the Buckeyes won 80-68. We watched that game closely and the Scarlet Knights dominated for about 80% of the game. They took their first lead with just over 15 minutes remaining in the game and did not relinquish that lead until just over 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. They led by 16 with less with 15 minutes remaining and still up by 10 with just over 10 minutes remaining. One of their top players, Jacob Young, was injured midway through the 2nd half and did not return and he is back at 100%. They were outscored by 18 points over the last 8 minutes to make it look like they got smoked and that was not the case. Rutgers is now 3-3 in conference play and this is a huge game for them. They have played the toughest slate of home games thus far in league play and they are 2-1 with wins over Illinois & Purdue and a 2 point loss vs Iowa. Illinois is currently rated as the best team the conference per KenPom and Iowa is ranked 3rd. In their loss to Iowa the Knights led for much of the game despite going 4 for 12 from the FT line making 14 fewer freebies than the Hawkeyes yet only lost by 2. They could easily be undefeated at home with wins over 2 of the top 3 teams in the Big 10. That Iowa loss was last Saturday and took the wind out of their sails as they followed that up with their worst performance of the year @ MSU. Now off 2 losses, we expect Rutgers to play great at home in this quick revenge spot. OSU has been tough at home but they are 0-3 on the road in Big 10 play with losses @ Northwestern, @ Minnesota, and @ Purdue. The Buckeyes have been a poor 3-point shooting team (last in Big 10 play) and in road games they are only hitting 40% of their shots (just 29% from 3). The Buckeyes are without starting guard CJ Walker for this game as he was injured last weekend vs Minnesota. Speaking of the Gophers, they rolled over OSU by 17 points at home last weekend and we expect Rutgers to control this game from start to finish. The host has covered 5 straight in this series and we lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -2.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks continue to compete, especially on the defensive end of the court which has been a trademark of head coach Tom Thibodeau wherever he’s been. It’s early in the season but the Knicks are 8th in defensive efficiency this season allowing just 1.062-points per possession. Last season the Knicks were 23rd in DEFF, giving up 1.130PPP. New York is holding foes to under .30% shooting from beyond the arc and below 44% from the field which both rank in the top 4 of the NBA. Oklahoma City has trouble scoring the way it is with the 30th ranked offense in terms of scoring this season at 102PPG. The Thunder don’t shoot well at 43.8% overall and 33% from the 3-point line. OKC is last in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.007PPP. Oklahoma City has the 2nd worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -8.7PPG. The Knicks have only played three home games but are 2-1 SU with impressive wins over the Bucks and Jazz and the lone loss against an elite 76ers team. The Thunder are coming off a road win over the Pelicans, but New Orleans is struggling right now so we’re not impressed. New York continue to be undervalued and we’ll buy low here.

ASA top play on 10* Wright State -11.5 over Youngstown State, 7 PM ET - We feel Wright State is the best team in the Horizon conference this season, yet they are looking up at Illinois Chicago and Cleveland State in the standings. Cleveland State is 6-0 in league play but have played three of the worst teams in the league in IUPUI, IPFW and this same Youngstown State team that Wright State plays today. Cleveland State beat this Youngstown State team by 18 and 7-points earlier this season. Wright State had ripped off 7 wins in a row before an upset loss to Oakland their last time out. After beating Oakland, the night before by 29, the Raiders lost by 10 as an 11-point chalk. We’ve said it a million times and will say it again, bet good teams off bad losses! Wright State has an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 64th and an AEO of 116th. Youngstown State is 2-4 in league play and coming off a pair of home games against UW Green Bay who might be the worst team in the Horizon. YSU beat UWGB in the first meeting by 7, then lost the next day by 10 in OT. That’s the same UWGB team Wright State beat by 14 and 13. Wright State has the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the Horizon and will exploit a Penguins team that is last in the conference in defensive efficiency allowing 1.183 points per possession. The key here is whether or not Wright State will be motivated against this lesser opponent and we know they will be off a loss in their last game AND a loss to YSU last year in the final meeting of the season.

ASA top play on 10* Murray State -2.5 over Eastern Illinois, 8:30 PM ET - Murray State was picked as one of the contenders in the Ohio Valley Conference this year but have gotten off to a 1-3 start. Two of those losses came against Austin Peay and Belmont who are currently two of the top five teams in the OVC. The most recent loss for the Racers came to Morehead State at home which broke a 25-game winning streak on their home court. Eastern Illinois is coming off a win at home which extended their home record to 3-0 this season. Closer inspection though shows those three wins came against weak competition that are not on the level as Murray State. The Panthers most recent win came by 6-points over Tennessee Tech who is one of the worst teams in the OVC. EIU struggles to defend with an efficiency rating of 220th allowing 1.011 points per possession. Their EFG% defense is also horrendous ranking 266th. The Panthers offense isn’t much better ranking 152nd in OEFF at less than 1-point per possession. The Racers are similar to the Panthers in terms of offensive efficiency but much better on the defensive end of the floor allowing .975PPP (135th). The Racers have won 41 out of their 50 regular season meetings and 19 of 27 games at Lantz Arena. Up until their loss there at the end of last season, the Racers had won five in a row and 10 of the last 12 on this court. The Racers bounce back here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35 PM ET - This is a favorable schedule situation for the Nets as the 76ers played last night making this the back end of consecutive nights. This is also the Sixers 3rd game in four nights. The Sixers have enjoyed some “home cooking” this season with just 3 road games thus far where they are 2-1 SU. Brooklyn is without Kevin Durant here, but the Nets didn’t need him in a blowout the other night of the Jazz. The Nets have some solid depth which is why they don’t need to rely solely on their two SuperStars. Philly holds the advantage on the defensive end of the court but the gap between these two teams in terms of defensive efficiency isn’t great. The Nets though enjoy a definite advantage offensively with the 5th best offensive efficiency number compared to Philadelphia’s 15th (or league average). Philly is just 15-25-1 ATS as a road favorite their last 41 games and fatigue becomes a factor tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Toronto Raptors, 9 PM ET - We don’t have a reason to believe in the Raptors turning things around anytime soon as rumors are swirling about chemistry issues within the team. Toronto has gotten off to a 1-5 SU start with their only win coming at home against the Knicks. They didn’t show up for a HUGE game against Boston the other night at home when the Celtics looked like a MASH unit and still lost by 12-points. In three road games the Raptors have been beaten by 4 at New Orleans, 7 at Philly and 5 at San Antonio. If you don’t think the Suns are for real, think again. Phoenix has gotten off to a 5-2 start with impressive home wins on their resume over Dallas and New Orleans. The Suns are coming off a home loss which will have them focused and motivated here. Phoenix is doing it with the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.045 points per possession and an offense that is ranked 10th overall in offensive efficiency. Toronto is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA right now (29th in OEFF) and their defense isn’t what it was a year ago with Ibaka and Gasol now in L.A. The numbers haven’t caught up with the Raptors yet so this is a bargain price to play against them.

ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -8 over Colorado State, 9 PM ET - San Diego State was just favored by 9-points at home against Colorado State and lost after leading by 26-points in the game. It was the largest comeback win in D1 this season and also in the last ten seasons. Now we are getting a better number with a highly motivated Aztecs team with payback on their minds. The Rams lost by 20-points to Saint Mary’s earlier this season and we have San Diego State rated significantly higher. Colorado State has played a significantly weaker schedule than SDSU and yet the Aztecs rate exponentially better in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Last season on this same court San Diego State was favored by 13-points against CSU, then this year 9-points and now we have a bargain price in this rematch. The Aztecs are 10-2 SU off a loss their last twelve and have won by an average of 15PPG. San Diego has enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage with a 32-6 SU record since 2018 with a +15.1PPG positive differential. Payback here in this quick turnaround.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -8 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 PM ET - This won’t be the last time we play against the Thunder as we just don’t feel they are going to be very good this season. The Thunder do have two road wins this season at Charlotte and Saturday in Orlando, but this is not a great spot for them. Miami is coming off a horrible offensive showing and loss in Dallas and will look to bounce back with a big home win Monday. Miami has been remarkable off a loss recently with a 28-7 SU run, +7.2PPG. The Heat were 25-7 SU last year at home with an average winning margin of +9.3PPG which was the third best differential in the NBA. The Heat have covered four straight at home as a favorite while Thunder 1-5 ATS last six on the road against a team with a winning record.

#102 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia +4 over Washington, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Washington has to win so we should be on them correct? Wrong. That’s one big mistake bettors make is just automatically taking teams that have to win. That’s actually proven to be not always a wise investment. In fact, Teams that need to win in Week 17 to get into the playoffs (or would need help with a loss) have gone 15-23 (39.5%) against the spread (ATS) when playing teams with zero incentive. The teams that have to win can often be tight and have added pressure which can negative affect on their performance vs a team that has nothing to lose. Plus, in this game, we’re not talking about a top notch team vs a crappy team. Both of these teams were alive to win the NFC East just one week ago. Philly was knocked out of contention by Dallas while Washington was losing at home to Carolina but they still control their own destiny. Who plays QB for Washington in this game? They were hoping Alex Smith would be back but he was very limited in practice at the end of the week with a calf injury. If he goes he won’t be near 100% with little mobility. If he doesn’t, it’s Taylor Heinicke who has attempted only 77 passes in his career. That’s a lot of pressure on a guy who has very little experience or a QB with a bad leg (Smith). The Eagles jumped out to a 14-3 lead @ Dallas last week but come up short. Their most recent home game was a 24-21 win over one of the best teams in the NFL, the Saints. Since taking over at QB Jalen Hurts has thrown for 850 yards & 6 TD’s to go along with 240 yards rushing. He’s given a nice spark to an offense that had scored 17 or less in 5 straight games before he took over. Eagles are 3-0 ATS as a home dog this year covering vs all playoff teams (Baltimore, New Orleans, & Seattle). Washington, on the other hand, hasn’t been a road favorite once this season and shouldn’t be here. This look ahead line last week was Philly -3 so this number has swung a full 5.5 to 6 points based on last week’s results. The Eagles were favored by 10.5 at home vs the Cowboys and 5.5 at home vs the NY Giants, the other 2 teams in contention for the NFC East. Now they are getting points from Washington? Bad line and we’ll take Philly to win this game at home. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* #840 Minnesota +1 over Ohio State, 5:30 PM ET - Good spot to play on the Gophers here as they are off a loss at Wisconsin and back at home where they are 34-8 SU since 2018. Minnesota has also won those games since 2018 by an average of 10.7PPG. The Gophers are also 19-11 SU when coming off a loss their last 30. Minnesota has played the tougher schedule than Ohio State who we feel is overrated and played a weaker schedule. The Gophers two losses this season came at two top ranked venues in Illinois and Wisconsin. Between those two losses the Gophers beat three quality foes in Saint Louis, Iowa and Michigan State. Minnesota is 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Ohio State has a pair of losses on their resume too, at Purdue and at Northwestern. The Buckeyes best win this season was at home against Rutgers. OSU has better efficiency rating but that is a byproduct of a weaker schedule. Minnesota has beaten this team two straight times and did so rather handily. Great spot to bet them here.

#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver +3 over Las Vegas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Raiders should be flat as a pancake here having been eliminated from the playoffs in excruciating fashion last weekend. They opted not to score a TD (took a knee at the 1 yard line) in order to run clock and kick what looked like the game winning FG vs Miami with just 18 seconds remaining. The Fins however moved the ball into FG range in one play (Fitzpatrick long pass + personal foul penalty) and kicked a FG to win as time expired. Devasting loss for Vegas and now they head on the road in a meaningless game. Denver has a poor home record (2-5 SU) but they’ve played a brutally tough home slate (KC, Buffalo, New Orleans, Miami, Tampa Bay, Tennessee). Their most recent game they were creamed by Buffalo who is playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. We expect them to play well here to atone for that poor performance. We were very impressed with the way the Broncos bounced back last week after that loss giving the Chargers all they could handle on the road. Denver lost 19-16 but outgained LA by 80 yards, had 7 more first downs, and topped them on the ground 133 to 89. If not for a number of dropped passes, including a few big plays and one that would have been a TD, the Broncos would have won the game. They are still playing hard and competing which is a good sign here as we don’t expect Vegas to do the same. The Raiders beat up on Denver earlier this year 37-12 but the score was a bit deceiving as the yardage was near even but the Broncs had 5 turnovers. Vegas is in a freefall. They were right square in the middle of playoff contention in mid November but have now lost 5 of their last 6 and been outgained and outrushed in 5 of those 6. Their offensive line is really banged up (starting all pro OT Brown is out) and RB Jacobs is hurting as well (only 13 carries vs Miami). Denver has a big edge defensively ranking 14th DVOA on Football Outsiders with Vegas ranking 28th. The leaky Raider defense has given up an average of 34 PPG over their last 6. Denver was +6 at home vs Buffalo, +7 vs KC, +3.5 vs Tennessee, +6 vs Tampa, and +4 vs Miami, all playoff teams. Now they are in the same range (+3 but dropping to +2.5) vs a non-playoff Raider team that very well might have packed it in for the season. Take Denver here.

#496 ASA PLAY ON Iowa State -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The Big 12 has shown themselves very well thus far with Oklahoma rolling over Florida, Oklahoma State topping Miami, and Texas crushing Colorado (WVU won as well). The Pac 12 has had just one game and that was the blowout we just mentioned. The Buffs were a near perfect 4-1 in Pac 12 play this year and they took on a depleted Texas team, with a number of starters opted out, in the Alamo Bowl and lost 55-23. Iowa State played those teams (Texas & Oklahoma) to the wire this year beating OU by 7 and Texas by 3 in the regular season and then losing to OU by 6 in the Big 12 Championship game. Their only other Big 12 loss this season was by a FG to Oklahoma State. Thus, there 2 conference losses came against bowl teams who both won their bowl games (OU in blowout fashion) by a combined 9 points (they did lose to another bowl team UL Lafayette in the season opener way back in early Sept). Their 8 Big 12 wins came by an average of +18.3 PPG. They are rolling on both sides of the ball right now. On offense the Cyclones have put up at least 435 yards of total offense in 5 of their last 6 games. They actually outgained Oklahoma in their Conference Championship loss but had 3 turnovers. They have also averaged 37 PPG during that stretch. On defense they’ve held their last 6 opponents to an average of just 17.6 PPG. While ISU was obviously disappointed to lose in the Big 12 Championship game, we’re hearing they are thrilled to be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, which is the most prestigious bowl this program has ever played in. Oregon was supposed to be the top team in the weak Pac 12 this year but that wasn’t the case. They did beat USC in the Pac 12 Championship game but the Ducks weren’t even supposed to be in that game. They backed in when Washington, the Pac 12 North Champs, weren’t able to field enough players due to a covid outbreak. Even though they beat the Trojans to win the conference, Oregon was outgained by 115 yards in that game and scored their first 2 TD’s on drives of 9 and 32 yards following USC turnovers. Two of their other three wins were vs teams that finished the season below .500. Their 2 losses were vs Oregon State (finished with a 2-5 record) and California (finished with a 1-4 record). Oregon played a weak schedule and their season stats weren’t overly impressive with a +20 YPG differential. Compare that to Iowa State, who played a much tougher schedule, and had a YPG differential of +97. ISU is better in the trenches running the ball for 192 YPG while allowing only 105 on the ground. The Cyclones are also better at the key position on the field, quarterback. ISU QB Purdy is finishing up his 3rd year as the starter and has thrown for nearly 9,000 yards and 61 TD’s. Oregon starter Shough is fairly inexperienced as this is his first year as a starter and he’s not a great passer. We also like the coaching match up here as ISU’s Campbell is FAR superior to the Ducks Cristobal. We like Iowa State to win this game by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets –4.5 over Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - Love the scheduling dynamics to play on Denver here and against Phoenix. The Suns have gotten off to a fantastic start this season at 4-1 and have picked up where they left off last season in the Bubble with an 8-0 run. But this is not an ideal situation for them as they played last night and are playing their 3rd game in four days. Not to mention they are playing in the higher altitude of Denver tonight which is never a good thing for unrested teams. The Nuggets meanwhile are home, rested AND coming off a loss in their previous game. Denver is off to a very disappointing 1-3 start this season, 2 of those losses coming at home. The Nuggets are 65-20 SU their last 85 home games with an average margin of victory of +8PPG. When facing an opponent that is unrested the Nuggets are 28-15 SU their last 43. Off a loss Denver is 44-28 their last 72 games. Denver has beaten this Suns team 5 straight and make it six in a row here.

ASA top play on 10* Arkansas Little Rock -4 over Texas Arlington, 5 PM ET - Sun Belt action tips off for both teams with UALR looking to repeat as Champions after a 15-5 conference record a year ago. The Trojans return their 7 top scorers from a year ago but have largely underachieved this season with 3 straight spread losses. But that recent trend has affected the number and we get the opportunity to buy low with UALR. In their last game the Trojans lost to Missouri State as they dressed just 8 players and had to finish the game with 4 on the floor. The players that missed that game on Dec 21 because of Covid protocols are expected back here. The Trojans have beaten UTA four straight times on this floor. Arlington returns some sophomores and juniors to this team and have some juco transplants, but they were still 7th in the Sun Belt a year ago. UTA is on a 3-game winning streak but they came against D2 schools. Arkansas Little Rock will be properly motivated here to start conference play and will hold a decisive advantage on the boards with a big front line going against a smaller lineup for UTA.

#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -9 over Ball State, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - This SJSU team has flown under the radar the entire season. They are a perfect 7-0 and are seeking their first undefeated season since 1939. Just two seasons ago this team was 1-11. They are HIGHLY motivated to close out with an undefeated season and we expect to see the Spartans at their best on Thursday. If they are at their best, this team is much better than Ball State. All 7 of SJSU’s wins this year have come by double digits including a 14 point win over a very good Boise State team in the MWC Championship game. The Spartans outgained the Broncos by 240 yards in that game! For the season they outgained their opponents by more than 100 YPG and by a full 2 yards per play (6.9 YPP offense & 4.9 YPP defense) in the much tougher MWC (compared to the MAC). QB Starkel, who played at both Arkansas & Texas A&M, was a grad transfer who led this offense with over 300 YPG passing. The Spartans have one of the most potent passing attacks in the country which is bad news for a Ball State defense that allowed 296 YPG through the air (119th nationally). The 2 best pass offenses the Cardinals faced this season were Western Michigan & Toledo and those 2 teams put up 275 yards passing & 2 TD’s and 407 yards passing & 3 TD’s in those 2 games respectively. Ball State, on the other hand, relies heavily on their running game (45 carries per game but only 3.9 YPC) and they are facing an SJSU defense that gives up only 3.3 YPC. The 2 best rushing attacks they faced this season were Air Force (2nd nationally) & San Diego State (32nd nationally). They held the Falcons to 206 yards rushing (100 yards below their average) and the Aztecs to 101 yards rushing (99 yards below their average). Ball State ranks 53rd nationally running the ball and they’ll be without, by far, their best RB here (Caleb Huntley) who opted out after rushing for just under 3,000 yards in his career. This Spartan defense did not allow more than 24 points in a game this season and we like them to really slow down this Ball State attack. The Cards already won their “Super Bowl” so to speak by beating Buffalo in the MAC Championship game despite getting outgained 7.0 YPP to 5.5 YPP. Ball State was outgained 6.1 YPP to 5.8 YPP on the season despite playing an easier schedule than San Jose who was +2.0 YPP as we mentioned above. The MAC has been historically bad in bowl games with an 18-35-2 ATS record their last 55 as bowl underdogs. Ball State is also historically bad in bowl games going 0-7 SU lifetime with 5 of those 7 losses coming by at least 9 points. This game is being played out west in Arizona which is a definite positive for San Jose State. The Cardinal players are just happy to get away from the cold and snow in this vacation type game. We’ll lay the points with San Jose State as we expect the Spartans to roll in this game.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -6.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET We like to bet on elite teams off a bad loss which is the case in this setting Wednesday as Brooklyn is off a pair of losses and face an unbeaten Hawks team. That 3-0 Atlanta record has kept this line in check, and we will take advantage of a soft number here. The Nets lost in Charlotte two games ago then rested Kyrie and KD in an OT loss to Memphis. The Nets with their pair of “mega-stars” are a team capable of flipping the switch on any given night and in their first two games when motivated they blew out Golden State and Boston. As we mentioned, Atlanta has gotten off to that perfect 3-0 start, but the wins have come against Detroit, Chicago and Memphis who have a combined 2-9 SU record. Yes, the Hawks have improved their roster, but this is still a team that had a negative road differential of minus-13.4PPG during the regulars season a year ago, which was the worst number in the NBA. Brooklyn gets an easy double-digit win here.

#297 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado +8.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - We know Colorado is thrilled to be in the Alamo Bowl. We’re not so sure Texas can say the same. Once again the Longhorns had much higher aspirations and fell short of their goals with a 6-3 record. They blew out a poor KSU team to end the season and might be taking this one lightly or have little interest at all. The Horns have had a number of opt outs for this game including top WR Eagles, starting LT Cosmi, starting C Kerstetter, starting DE Ossai, starting DT Graham, and starting safeties Sterns & Brown. That doesn’t sound like a team that cares all that much about this game. There is still talk about whether HC Herman is the right man for the program after underachieving during his tenure and he now has former players chiming in on his lack of coaching acumen. Just not a great overall situation to close out the season for Texas. The Buffs were a surprise this year under new head coach Dorrell. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and by all indications the players love their new head coach. They won 2 games outright as an underdog and Dorrell has been fantastic as an underdog covering 12 of his last 13 when getting points dating back to his HC days at UCLA. Their only loss this season was vs Utah in their season finale, a game Colorado actually led 21-10 in the 3rd quarter. They outgained and outrushed 4 of their 5 opponents this season. Their offense should thrive here vs a Texas defense that allowed 410 YPG and is without many of their top players as mentioned above. Even in their blowout win over KSU to close out the season, the Horns gave up 448 total yards to a Wildcat offense that ranks 106th in total offense. We’re confident that CU will stay in this game throughout and we’re getting more than a TD as a cushion. Take the points.

#296 ASA PLAY ON 8* Miami FL +1.5 over Oklahoma State, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET - We love the situation here with Miami coming off a blowout loss vs UNC to end the season while OSU steps in off a blowout win over Baylor. The Canes failed to cover that home finale vs the Heels by 39 points and the Cowboys covered their finale by 33 points. With that in mind, bowl underdogs coming off a season ending SU loss as a favorite are 25-9 ATS if playing a bowl opponent that won their season ender by at least 17 points. Miami will have plenty of motivation which is key when handicapping bowl games. On top of everything above, the Canes lost last year as a bowl favorite getting shutout by La Tech 14-0 providing an extra spark of motivation for this game. Take a listen to Miami starting safety Bubba Bolden this week, “we are coming into this game with a lot of fire, I’ll tell you that right now...We take this very personally, and after the last game’s performance, that was not the Miami way.’’ They also received a mental boost this week when star QB King (2,500 yards passing / 600 yards rushing / 22 TD’s) said he’s coming back next year. We have no doubt the Canes are fully focused for this game in which they have the travel edge with this game being played in Orlando. OSU started the season 4-0 but closed just 3-3 over their last 6 games with their 3 wins all coming vs teams that finished the season below .500. They leaned on their defense early in the season but the regressed heavily on that side of the ball down the stretch allowing 30 PPG over their last 6. Minus their final game vs Baylor (118th in total offense) this OSU defense allowed 38 PPG & 529 YPG over their final 4 (again minus Baylor). They were outgained in 4 of their final 5 games and their star RB Hubbard is not playing in this game. If not for their recent opposite end of the spectrum performances, the Canes would be favored in this game. Line value and motivation in Miami’s favor so we’ll take them to win this one.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 9 PM ET - We think the oddsmakers had the correct number when they opened the Nuggets minus 9 here but since public money has forced the line down to the current number. At the end of last season, the Denver Nuggets were being talked about as possible title contenders with Jokic and Murray playing at a very high level. The Nuggets have gotten off to an 0-2 start with an OT loss to Sacramento and then a beatdown by the Clippers who were playing with revenge from last season’s playoffs. Denver was 26-11 SU at home last season before Covid hit with an average point differential of +4.2PPG. This is not the same Houston Rockets team we saw last year. James Harden is back, but for how long? Houston’s next three best players are not on this current trip as Wall, Cousins and Gordon are home in Covid protocols. The Rockets played well in the opener against Portland but are in a bad spot here. The home team has won four straight meetings in this series by 7 or more points. Denver was 23-13 SU off a loss last season and at 0-2 they’ll play with a little more motivation here. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Michigan State -2.5 over Minnesota, 8 PM ET - Why is Michigan State favored on the road after they just lost to Wisconsin and the Gophers are off an upset win of Iowa? Not only is Minnesota coming off that huge win over the #4 Hawkeyes, but they have a date with the Wisconsin Badgers next. Granted, MSU is still a big-name opponent but they have lost two straight and we guarantee the Gophers have noticed. Michigan State is 64-23 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-11 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. These two teams are relatively even in defensive efficiency ratings but MSU has a slight advantage offensively and they’ve faced a tougher schedule. Minnesota is 3-2 SU their last five as a home dog but they can’t capture the energy from their home crowd in the current Covid setting. The favorite has covered 7-straight in this series and the Spartans in a desperate situation make it 8 in a row.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5 over San Antonio Spurs, Sunday 7 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Pelicans here as the Spurs are off a game last night with the Raptors while the Pels were home resting. San Antonio has jumped out to a 2-0 start but now face a Pelicans team off a loss in Miami and rested. The Spurs are 9-13 SU their last 22 when playing without rest. You would think the storied franchise of San Antonio would thrive as an underdog but that is not the case. Since 2018 the Spurs are 25-27-1 ATS as a dog and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.8PPG. New Orleans is an up-and-comer in the West and have several pieces in place to make a strong run at a playoff berth. It starts with Zion Williamson who was on restricted minutes last year but is a full go this season. Add in All-Star Ingram, two great perimeter defensive guards in Bledsoe and Ball and a rim protector in Adams and you have a solid foundation. The play here is New Orleans minus the points.

#475 ASA PLAY ON 10* LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking for good teams coming off bad losses and we couldn’t ask for a better spot than taking the Rams a week after losing to the Jets as a 17 point favorite. Over the last decade, there have been 10 teams that were favored by -13 or more, were above .500 at the time, and lost. Those teams bounced back to cover at an 80% rate the following week (8 of 10 covered). The Rams match up very well with the Seahawks beating them 5 of the last 6 meetings with their only loss during that stretch coming by 1 point. Seattle already has a spot in the playoffs locked up while the Rams do not. The winner of this game has the inside track to the NFC West title and we’ll take the team that’s better on both sides of the ball. LA has a huge edge defensively as they rate as the top defense in the NFL (total defense & YPP defense) and also rank as the #4 DVOA defense on Football Outsiders. Seattle ranks 25th in total defense and 20th in DVOA defense. There has been some chatter about Seattle’s defense improving over the last month which it has if you look at straight numbers. However, their last 4 opponents have been Eagles, Giants, Jets, and Redskins and all 4 of those teams rank 22nd or lower in total offense with the last 3 listed ranking 29th, 31st, and 32nd. The fact is Seattle struggled in 3 of those 4 games vs inferior opponents going to the wire in their tight wins over the Eagles and Redskins and in their home loss to the Giants. Their games vs the Giants and Redskins came vs back up QB’s McCoy and Haskins as well. The Rams & Seahawks have played nearly identical schedules being the same division and LA is +97 YPG on the season while Seattle is -6 YPG. LA has been an underdog 3 times and won 2 of those games outright with their lone loss in that spot coming by 3 points @ Buffalo. In their last 3 road games the Rams have outgained the Cardinals by 231 yards, outgained Tampa by 162 yards, and outgained Miami by 326 yards. We’ll take the better team in a must win spot here.

ASA top play on 10* Monmouth -5 over Canisius, 2 PM ET - Great spot to play on Monmouth and fade Canisius in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Last season these two teams met twice with Monmouth winning by 19 on this floor and 14 at Canisius. It clearly wasn’t a fluke Monmouth won twice considering they shot 49 and 50 percent in the two games and held Canisius to just 40% shooting in both contests. Last season Monmouth was the 3rd most efficient offense in the MAAC and 2nd best in defensive efficiency. Canisius was 7th in OEFF, 8th in DEFF. The Monmouth Hawks just split a pair of games with St Peters who finished second in the conference a year ago. Both games against St Pete’s went down to the wire and were decided by just 2-points. The Golden Griffins of Canisius split a pair of games with Marist to start the season and Marist was 7-23 SU last season and last in the conference. This is a bargain price and we’ll jump on the Hawks!

#473 ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta +11 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Falcons haven’t been a double-digit dog this season. In fact, the largest spread the Falcons have faced this season is +6-points against Tampa Bay last week. They lost to the Bucs by 4-points in a game which most key statistics were relatively even. Going back further we find the Falcons have been double-digit dogs just twice in their last 47 games. Now you might be saying they are facing the defending Super Bowl Champs in the Chiefs who are clearly the best offensive team in the NFL and their overall defensive numbers are bad. If you look at raw data you see the Falcons rank 28th in yards allowed per game, 31st in passing defense and 18th in points allowed per game BUT when you factor in their strength of schedule, they have the 12th best DVOA numbers in the NFL. Despite being 4-10 SU the Falcons have an average point differential of +0.1PPG which is in the top half of the NFL and ranks better than 10-4 Cleveland, 7-7 Chicago, 6-8 New England to name a few. Kansas City is 13-1 SU on the season and their average Margin of Victory is +8.9PPG which clearly doesn’t get a cover here. Kansas City has a defensive DVOA that ranks 17th in the NFL and the Falcons offense that is loaded with weapons can take advantage of this average unit. Grab the points with Atlanta.

ASA top play on 10*: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET The Pacers have enough talent on their roster to be a threat in the East this season, especially with Oladipo back to full strength. The Pacers were just a -7.5-point favorite at home over the Knicks who aren’t much worse than this Bulls team and Indy beat New York by 14. The Bulls lost their season opener to the Hawks by 20, who expect to be better this season, but still aren’t at the Pacers level. Last season the Bulls were 27th in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.067 points per possession while Indiana was 19th at 1.100PPP. Chicago was in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency last season ranking 12th but Indiana was even better yet at 6th. Chicago had a negative point differential of -3.1PPG overall last season which was one of the 8 worst numbers in the league. Indiana beat the Bulls 4 times last season, all by more than this spread and three of which were by 9+ points. Lay the short number with the Pacers.

ASA play on 8* Gonzaga -8 over Virginia, 4PM ET The Zags are the best team in college basketball, and they’ve proven it against some elite competition this season with wins over Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa and even a solid Auburn team. Virginia can’t say the same thing as their best win was in OT over an average MAC team Kent State. We know Tony Bennett coached teams are going to play fantastic defense, but we also know they’ll struggle to score. The Cavaliers best offensive option is Sam Hauser but they lack scoring beyond him. Last season the Cavs had the #1 ranked defensive efficiency rating but were 234th in OEFF. Gonzaga though does it on both ends of the court with an OEFF rating of 1.189PPP this season (2nd) and a DEFF rating of .895PPP (14th). Last season the Zags were the #1 ranked offensive team in the nation and 43rd defensively. Virginia just can’t keep pace offensively here and it ends up being a double-digit win by Gonzaga.

#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -3.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Conference USA has proven to be a dud on the bowls thus far. They are currently 0-4 getting outscored by a whopping 85 points in those 4 games. When the Sun Belt has faced off vs CUSA in the bowl games thus far, the Belt is 2-0 with Georgia Southern beating La Tech 38-3 & App State beating North Texas 56-28. That’s relevant because we have Georgia State (from the Sun Belt) facing Western Kentucky (from CUSA) in this game. Western Kentucky has one of the worst offenses in college football ranking 120th in total offense, 111th in passing offense, 99th in rushing offense, and 115th in scoring. There’s been some chatter about their offense coming to life in easy wins over Charlotte & FIU, who have a 2-9 combined record, but what looks like a scoring outburst from the Hilltoppers wasn’t so much as they scored 4 defensive TD’s in those 2 games combined. The fact is, this team has scored a grand total of 19 offensive TD’s in 11 games this year. That’s it. They are facing a Georgia State team that averaged 33 PPG on the season and WKY’s highest offensive output the entire season was just 24 points (minus defensive TD’s). While Western Kentucky’s defense has solid numbers on the year, this is a bad match up for them. The strength of their defense is on the back end as they defend the pass very well. Their rush defense allows 166 YPG and they are facing a GSU offense that loves to run (43 carries per game for 190 yards). The Georgia State defensive numbers aren’t great but they really played well down the stretch allowing just 18 PPG over their last 3 games which included match ups with App State (GSU lost 17-13) and Georgia Southern (State won 30-24) who both won their bowl games already in blowout fashion. State is solid vs the run which matches up well with a WKY that likes to run (but isn’t great at it averaging 3.9 YPC) but it not a good passing team. Georgia State has already proven to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt taking App State & Louisiana, the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the league, to the wire in tight losses and beating Georgia Southern. The only team they weren’t competitive with was Coastal Carolina who is ranked 12th in the country with an 11-0 record. As we mentioned the Sun Belt has walloped CUSA in their 2 meetings thus far and we have no reason to believe Georgia State can’t cover this small number on Saturday.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, Friday 5PM ET Let’s be up front on this. Our computer analytics don’t have a lot of data on this game considering Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are taking the court together for just the second time this season. We can still accurately predict this game based on both teams’ openers though. With 30+ years’ experience handicapping the NBA we know a good team when we see one. In fact, we predicted the Nets to win it all in 2021. The young Nets played extremely well in the Bubble last season with several breakout players stepping up into bigger roles. Even without Durant and Kyrie this team was going to be a playoff team this season. Brooklyn beat this same Celtics team twice last year without KD or Kyrie. Brooklyn had 20 turnovers in their games against Golden State and still won by 26-points. We expect them to clean that part of their game up here against a Celtics team they would love to send a message to early in the season. Boston is off a HUGE win over the Bucks with Tatum banking in a 3-pointer with .04 seconds left in the game. The Celtics have depth concerns already and will be without Kemba Walker here. Last season the Nets were 15-21 SU on the road with an average road differential of minus -2.9PPG (again without KD, Kyrie). This game will have a little extra meaning for Kyrie (former Celtic) and the Nets who are considered the Celtics “little brother” in the East. The oddsmaker clearly have bought into the Nets as this line is nearly the same as the Bucks number in their first game against Boston.

ASA top play on 10* Michigan State +1.5 over Wisconsin, Friday, 12:30PM ET - You couldn’t ask for a better “play on” situation with Michigan State in this contest. The Spartans are off a tough road loss at Northwestern and played as poorly as I’ve ever seen a Tom Izzo team play. In fact, Izzo publicly shamed his team after the game for the horrendous performance. Michigan State is 64-22 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-10 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. MSU has been a home underdog JUST 3 times in the last 20 years and you can bet this is a motivating factor. Granted, we can’t ignore the Badgers are 15-6 SU since 2015 as an away favorite but this is not a familiar situation against this level of competition. In fact, the Badgers were favored by 4.5 at Marquette and lost earlier this year. Last season Badgers were a 5-point home underdog to MSU and won 64-63 which makes this line off even more. Prior to last year, the Spartans had won 8 straight in this series. The Michigan State loss to Northwestern doesn’t look as bad now that the Wildcats just won on the road against a good Indiana team. Wisconsin has been at home for most of the start of the season and face a really tough road game here. MSU is 76-9 SU their last 85 at home and won those games by an average of 19PPG. Take Michigan State!

ASA top play on 10* Illinois -4 at Penn State, 6:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the opportunity to bet on an elite team such as Illinois coming off a loss. The Illini lost last time out at Rutgers by 3-points but were outscored at the free throw line by 14-points. Illinois shot well for the game by hitting 54% from the field, 60% from Downtown. Illinois has the 7th best offensive efficiency rating in college hoops at 1.147 points per possession and rank 37th in defensive efficiency allowing just .922PPP. Penn State is also coming off a loss at Michigan, but they were not expected to win as a 7-point dog. The Nittany Lions also have top 40 ratings in both offensive and defensive efficiency which is why the line on this game is as low as it is. The two previous times the Illini have been beaten this season they bounced back with blowout wins over Duke and Minnesota. Illinois will get a double-digit win here.

#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Southern -6 over Louisiana Tech, Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET - We can take quite a bit from Monday’s bowl match up between App State & North Texas and apply it to this game. App State dominated that game rushing for over 500 yards in a 56-28 win. What does that have to do with this game? Well Georgia Southern plays in Sun Belt along with App State and La Tech plays in CUSA along with North Texas. Southern faced App State on the road in the final game of the regular season and gave them all they could handle. They actually led in the 4th quarter and were outgained by only 32 yards. La Tech played North Texas on December 3rd and while they won by 11 points, the Bulldogs were outgained both on a YPP and YPG basis. That’s the same UNT team that App State outgained 11.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP on Monday. UNT ran 95 offensive snaps to just 56 for App State and STILL lost by 4 TD’s. Ga Southern runs a unique triple option scheme on offense that is tough to prepare for. The Eagles rank 7th nationally in rushing at 262 YPG. La Tech is not a strong run defense ranking 88th so GSU should control the line of scrimmage here. The Eagles starting QB Werts was out the last 2 games, including their down to the wire loss @ App State, but has been practicing a most likely will play here. Even if not, the starter will be senior Moseley who has plenty of experience in this offense. Speaking of offense, La Tech is a wreck on that side of the ball. They rank 113th nationally in total offense and they will be without their starting QB Anthony here who was lost to a season ending injury in their regular season finale. His back up Allen only attempted 97 passes this season and this team can’t run the ball (97 YPG rushing) which will put more pressure on the QB to make plays. Tech has a 5-4 record on the season but they were outgained on a YPP basis in every game this year (minus Houston Baptist). They average only 4.1 YPP in their 8 games vs FBS opponents and will struggle to keep up here. Georgia Southern wins the trenches on both sides of the ball here and a team that can do that normally comes out on top. Lay it with Georgia Southern.

ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -2.5 over St Mary, CA 9 PM ET - Great situation here with a very good San Diego State team coming off a loss to another solid team in BYU. The Aztecs have played one of the tougher schedules to date with quality wins over UCLA, Pepperdine and Arizona State. San Diego State is the 54th rated offensive efficiency unit in college hoops averaging 1.080 points per possession and a defense that gives up just .910PPP which is 26th best. St Mary’s is obviously a quality team this season with an 8-1 SU record but their strength of schedule of 185 doesn’t compare with SDSU. San Diego State was 30-2 last season and have 70% of their roster intact. Off their loss the Aztecs rebound here with a win.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* App State -21 over North Texas, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - App State is the FAR superior team here and they are motivated. This is a senior laden squad that is looking for their 5th straight bowl win. The seniors have addressed the team wanting to make sure they go 4-0 in their careers in bowl games. Football Outsiders has App State is ranked as 28th best team and UNT 122nd (out of 130). Our numbers concur with that. App State is by far the best team North Texas has played this season. SMU is next best ranked 44th and they beat UNT by 30. The Mean Green also lost to the 95th ranked team (UTSA) by 32 and the 116th ranked team (Charlotte) by 28. North Texas had one of the better offenses in the country this year, however they played a horrible slate of defenses. App State will be by far the best defense they’ve faced this year. They will also be short handed as their #1 offensive weapon, WR Darden who accounted for nearly half of their receiving yards this season and scored 19 TD’s, tops in the nation. They will also be minus one of their 2 QB’s which is significant as they’ve rotated throughout the year and their missing QB, Aune, is their best passer. UNT horrible defensively especially vs the run (243 rushing YPG allowed) and App St a very good running team (243 rushing YPG). They give up 41 PPG on the season. They have allowed at least 40 points vs 6 of their 8 FBS opponents this season. They won’t stop App State in this game. With their offense not a full strength and facing the best defense they’ve seen, we don’t expect UNT to put up a ton of points here. While App State is going for their 6th straight bowl win, the Mean Green are 1-5 their last 6 bowl appearances and their most recent post-season appearance was a 52-13 loss in the 2018 New Mexico Bowl. This one has blowout potential.

#353 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England +1.5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Pats are off a 24-3 loss @ LA Rams and they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game as that was on a Thursday.  Give Bill Belichick extra time to prepare his defense and you’re usually going to get a great scheme and effort.  Give him extra time to prepare facing a rookie QB and then watch out.  In his New England career, Belichick has faced 30 rookie QB’s.  His record in those games is 25-5 SU. The last 11 times he’s faced a rookie QB for the very first time, he’s 11-0 SU in those games.  This will be the first time he faces Miami QB Tagovailoa.  Two weeks ago New England was in a similar spot as a small road dog vs everyone’s rookie of the year QB Herbert for the Chargers.  What happened in that game?  Patriots won 45-0 holding Herbert to 0 TD’s and under a 50% completion rate with 2 picks.  Miami is coming off what looks like a close battle with KC last week as they lost 33-27 picking up the tight cover as 7-point underdogs.  The truth is, they were down 30-10 entering the 4th quarter and they were outgained 7.3 YPP to 4.8 YPP.  The 2 games prior to last week the Fins played the Jets & Bengals, the 2 worst teams in the NFL (Miami won both).  Since Tagovailoa took over, the Dolphins are 4-2 in his starts but they’ve been lucky to get to that mark as they’ve been dominated statistically.  In fact, if we throw out their game vs the Bengals (he didn’t start or play vs the Jets), in the other 5 games Miami has been outgained by 766 total yards.  We expect the NE defense to have lots of success here.  Offensively they should move the ball as well.  This is a bad match up for the Miami defense.  Their weakness is definitely stopping the run as they rank 21st in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 26th in YPC allowed.  Facing a New England offense that runs the ball more than any other team with Newton at QB and ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing is not ideal for the Fins.  They’ve faced only two other top 10 rushing team this year in the Cardinals & Rams.  Arizona rushed for 178 yards on nearly 5 YPC and the Rams put up 131 yards rushing on 4.5 YPC.  Lastly, road underdogs of 6 points or less this season in games expected to be low scoring (total set at 45 or less) are 15-1 ATS.  We like New England to win this game.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina +8 over Green Bay, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET

The Panthers are much better than their 4-9 record.  For the season they are just -9 YPG and they actually outgain their opponents on a YPP basis (+0.1).  Those are normally the numbers of a .500 type team.  They have played a number of close games with 7 of their 9 losses coming by one score (8 points) which would get them a cover here at +8.5 or +9.  The Panthers are cashing at a 70% rate as a dog this season (7-3 ATS) and we think they’ll keep this one within a TD.  They get top WR Moore back in the line up and we love taking NFL dogs that can score points and Carolina can do that.  They are averaging 26 PPG when Bridgewater starts at QB and they should be able to put up points vs this Green Bay defense that is OK, but not great by any means.  The Packers have allowed at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games and the only offense that didn’t put up points over the last month vs this defense was Philly who has been a wreck on that side of the ball.  Green Bay clinched the NFC North last week with a win over Detroit so while they are still fighting for the #1 seed, we wouldn’t be surprised if they weren’t at the top of their game here.  Bridgewater is an amazing 18-2 ATS as an underdog in non-division games and we like him to get another cover on Saturday night.  Since their road opener @ Tampa, the Panthers have covered 5 straight road games including a 3 point loss @ New Orleans and a 2-point loss @ KC, two of the top teams in the NFL.  This one goes to the wire and we’ll take the points.

#214 ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State -15 over Illinois, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET

Two teams definitely headed in opposite directions here.  PSU has saved their season after starting 0-5 they have now rebounded to win 3 straight.  Word out of Happy Valley is they are now having fun and excited to be playing and you can see it in their performance.  Illinois, on the other hand, just got trounced by their in-state rival Northwestern and fired their coach this week.  Now they have to go on the road and try to muster up the energy to play in a meaningless game with a lame duck interim coach.  This is a very tough spot for the Illini.  The Illinois defense is bad ranking dead last in the Big 10 in total defense, 13th in rush defense, and their pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete 70% of their passes, the worst in the league.  Last Saturday they allowed Northwestern to roll up 411 yards rushing.  The Cats aren’t a great running team as they were averaging only 3.1 YPC entering last week.  PSU’s offense has come alive during their 3 game winning streak averaging 30 PPG over those 3 and now they face the worst defense they’ve seen this year.  The Nittany Lions are much better than their record.  They were a top 10 team to start the season.  They’ve outgained every team this year with the exception of Ohio State & Iowa.  This team is 3-5 but they rank 2nd in the Big 10 in total offense and 4th in total defense.  They can be vulnerable at times defending the pass, however Illinois is the worst passing team in the conference both on a YPG basis (180 YPG) and on a completion percentage basis (just 48%).  On top of that, their best WR opted out this week and won’t play in this game.  The records here are similar but there is really a pretty wide gap between these two.  ON the season PSU has a +76 YPG differential and Illinois is -91 YPG.  Just comparing these two alone, PSU is +51 YPG on offense and +116 YPG defensively.  If Illinois gets down in this game, which we feel they will, we have a feeling this could get ugly.   

#205 ASA PLAY ON 8* Air Force -2.5 over Army, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET

The situation heavily favors Air Force here.  On top of that, they are the better team despite the records.  Air Force was at home last weekend preparing for this rivalry while Army was playing their biggest rival, Navy last Saturday.  It has to be a weird situation playing a game the week following Navy as that never happens.  Those 2 always play in the final regular season college football game each year.  Army won 15-0 but it was far from impressive.  They had just 8 first downs and 162 total yards in the win.  Air Force played Navy earlier this season and beat them 40-7 outgaining them by 170 yards.  We understand that doesn’t always correlate but that was their only common opponent and AF was far superior in that comparison.  Air Force is 3-2 on the year with their 2 losses coming at the hands of Boise State & San Jose State who have a combined 12-1 record.  They actually outgained Boise and SJSU had just 3 more total yards in their meeting with the Falcons.  Army is 8-2 on the year but they’ve played a brutally easy schedule including 3 FCS teams.  There is a reason that a 3-2 team is favored over an 8-2 team on the road.  Both of these teams obviously run the ball as much as anyone in the country.  Air Force is simply better at it on both sides of the ball.  On offense they put up 336 YPG on 5.9 YPC while Army averages 280 YPG rushing on 4.8 YPC.  Defensively the numbers are closer but AF still has the advantage vs the run.  The Falcons have topped 400 yards of offense in every game but 1 this year.  Army topped 400 yards of offense just twice in 10 games and those were against Abilene Christian (throw that out) and UL Monroe, whose defense ranks 122nd nationally vs the run.  AF has simply dominated this series with a 19-4 SU record since 1987, 17-6 ATS.  They’ve also covered 10 of the last 11 times they’ve traveled to Army.  This is a small number to lay in our opinion.  Air Force is the side.

ASA play on 8*: Oklahoma -5.5 over Iowa State, 12 PM ET

We are betting the number here and taking the dominant Sooners in this Big 12 Championship game. Earlier this season OU was favored by a touchdown at Iowa State and now laying less than that on a neutral field. This number should be 10-points at a minimum and our power ratings has Oklahoma favored by 12-points. Both teams come into this game playing well with ISU winning five straight, OU six W’s in a row. Examining the yards per play numbers for both teams we find they are relatively equal with Oklahoma holding a slight edge in both offensive and defensive yards per play. Looking at two common opponents (Baylor and Oklahoma State) we find Oklahoma was much bigger favorites in both games and had dominating wins (+41 total points) while ISU lost to Okie State by 3-points and barely beat Baylor by 7 (+4 total point differential). Iowa State is very well coached and has a solid roster but are in unfamiliar territory here while Oklahoma has been here, done that. The Sooners have dominated the Big 12 with a 83-18 winning record dating back to 2010 and they’ve won those games by an average margin of 15PPG. Lay it with the Oklahoma here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon +3.5 over USC, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a classic underrated vs overrated spot in our opinion.  Entering the season our research told us that Oregon was the best team in the Pac 12.  We weren’t the only ones who shared that opinion as many other handicappers we respect felt the same way.  Oregon lost 2 games along the way to their current 3-2 record.  Both games were tight losses by 4 & 3 points and the Ducks had the ball late in the 4th quarter in each with a chance to win.  What would this line be if Oregon had one both of those game which they certainly could have?  In their most recent 21-17 loss @ Cal, the Ducks outgained the Bears by nearly 100 yards and had the ball in Cal territory in 3 of their last 4 possessions with a shot to win.  Those possessions ended in 2 fumbles and a shut out on downs at the Bear 18 yard line.  Speaking of fumbles, that has been a problem for the Ducks as they are -11 on the season, in just 5 games yet the STILL have a winning record.  The Trojans are the exact opposite for us.  They are very solid, but not as good as their 5-0 record.  They’ve had to make 3 fourth quarter comebacks to get to their 5 wins.  Last week vs arch rival UCLA, they trailed by 18 points made another late comeback scoring a TD with 16 seconds remaining in the game to win by 5.  As long as Oregon doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch, we think USC’s luck runs out here.  In fact, of the Ducks can keep this TO margin even, we have no doubt they’ll win this game.  For the season the 3-2 Ducks are +47 YPG and +1.6 YPP.  USC, vs a very similar schedule with 2 common opponents, is +35 YPG and only +0.1 YPP.  Speaking of those common opponents this is where we see the value in this line with Oregon as a dog.  They both played UCLA with Oregon favored by 18.5 in that game at home and USC favored by 3 at home.  They both played Washington State with Oregon favored by 10.5 on the road and USC favored by 11 at home.  Should Oregon actually be favored in this game.  We wouldn’t disagree if that was the case.  Take Oregon to win the Pac 12 Championship on Friday Night.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers +3 over Las Vegas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Vegas is absolutely heading in the wrong direction.  They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and their last 3 games have been downright atrocious.  Three weeks ago they traveled to Atlanta to play a Falcons team that was 4-7 at the time.  The Raiders were dominated 43-6.  A week after that they trailed the winless Jets with just seconds remaining but connected on a hail mary to win by 3.  The LV defense allowed a terrible Jet offense to average 6.3 YPP in that game.  That’s a NY offense that ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 4.7 YPP on the season.  Last week in a must win game at home, the Raiders were again dominated losing 44-27 to the Colts.  The defense was again shredded for 7.7 YPP.  Now that already poor defense will be without 4 starters on Thursday night.  The Chargers have a poor record but at least they’ve been competitive which is more than we can say as of late for the Raiders.  With the exception of their no show a few weeks ago vs New England, seven of their eight other losses have come by one score (8 points or less).  They have some momentum coming off a home win vs the Falcons, the same team that walloped the Raiders 43-6 a few weeks ago as we mentioned above.  Being in the same division these two have played a very similar schedule.  Vs the schedule, the Chargers are +46 YPG on the season while Las Vegas is -15 YPG.  In the first meeting in November, Las Vegas won 31-26 however they were -10 first downs and -120 total yards.  LA looks like they’ll be the much healthier team here as WR’s Allen & Williams along with RB Ekeler all practiced this week despite being listed as questionable.  The dog is 17-6 ATS in this AFC West rivalry and there is no way we’re laying points with the Raiders the way they are playing right now.  Chargers are the side.

ASA top play on 10* Nevada -3.5 over San Diego, 9 PM ET - We feel this is a generous number by the oddsmakers and will gladly side with the Wolfpack in this situation. Nevada was just favored by 1-point at Grand Canyon who is MUCH better than San Diego and lost by 10-points. Nevada is rebuilding this season with several new faces but there seems to be some continuity building on the offensive end of the floor where they have shot over 50% the last two contests. San Diego is going to struggle to score here with an offense that made just 31% of their field goal attempts in their opener against UCLA. That number is not an aberration though as the Toreros were putrid on offense a year ago ranking 315th in offensive efficiency at .944 points per possession. San Diego had one of the worst effective field goal percentages in the nation last season at 45.9%, they hit just 30.7% of their 3-pointers and 45.8% from inside the arc, which are again some of the worst statistics in college hoops a season ago. San Diego closed last season with a 2-15 SU record and we do not see them keeping pace with a Nevada team that is much better offensively (1.017PPP) and coming off a loss.

#151 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -8 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not sure how Detroit stops the Packers in this game.  Their defense ranks dead last in DVOA (Football Outsiders), 31st in scoring allowing 30 PPG, and 28th in YPP allowed.  Their pass defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL (29th in yards per pass attempt allowed) and they put no pressure on the QB (27th in sack percentage).  That’s a terrible recipe vs Aaron Rodgers and this red hot offense.  The Packers have scored 31, 41, and 30 points their last 3 games vs solid defenses (Indy, Chicago, and Philly).  What will they do this Sunday when they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL?  If the first meeting is any indication, it will be ugly.  The Packers put up 42 points in that game on nearly 500 total yards.  Detroit’s defense has given up 71 points in just the last 2 weeks including 30 points to Chicago.  Interim head coach Darrell Bevell led the Lions to a win last week at Chicago, but let’s face it there was some serious luck involved.  They were down 30-20 with less than 3:00 minutes remaining in the game and Chicago had the ball and a 10 point lead.  The conditions for offense in the dome will be perfect and Green Bay is averaging 37 PPG this season in the dome and many of those games are facing defenses a lot better than this Detroit team (New Orleans & Indy).  GB is going to score a vast majority of their possessions and the Detroit offense is going to have to keep up.  Matthew Stafford still has a bad throwing hand, his top RB Swift is most likely out again, and his top WR Golladay remains out.  Detroit has a grand total of 1 home win this season and that was a 3 point win vs Washington on a last second field goal in a game the Lions were outgained by nearly 100 yards.  Rodgers owns the NFC North with a 45-26 ATS record in his career.  A win here locks up the division and we like the Packers to roll here.  

#164 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay -7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Tampa looks like they are trending downward but we disagree.  This is a perfect spot to jump on the Bucs coming off back to back 3 point losses vs the Rams & Chiefs.  Notice the opponents.  Probably the best team in the AFC and possibly the NFL (Chiefs) and one of the top few teams in the NFC (Rams).  The Bucs are also coming off a bye to get refreshed and ready for the stretch run.  Minnesota looks like they are trending upward but we don’t necessarily agree.  They have won 5 of their last 6 games.  They’re on impressive win during that stretch was way back on November 1st when they beat GB 28-22 despite being outgained by 75 yards.  The Packers had 4 turnovers in that game which helped Minnesota’s cause.  Since that win, they’ve played 4 of their last 5 games at home and their wins have come against Detroit, Chicago, Carolina, and Jacksonville.  Their last 2 wins vs the Panthers and Jags have gone to the wire with the Vikings winning by 1 and by 3 in OT.  Their loss during that stretch?  The Cowboys beat them in Minnesota.  So while TB was playing some of the top teams in the league, Minnesota was padding their record at home vs less than stellar competition.  The Viking offense needs RB Cook to have a big day to open up the passing game for QB Cousins.  He has done that as of late topping 100 yards in 4 of his last 6 with a 96 yard performance also thrown in.  Now he faced the #1 defense in the NFL vs the run in Tampa who allows only 74 YPG rushing on 3.3 YPC.  Stopping Cook puts huge pressure on Cousins and he hasn’t always handled that well.  If they become one dimensional they’ll have problems with the TB pass rush which is one of the best in the league (6th in sacks per game).  The Tampa offense should have plenty of success vs a Minnesota defense that has allowed 31 points to Dallas, 27 to Carolina, and 24 to Jacksonville their last 3 games.  Tom Brady is 34-12 ATS coming off a loss and when the Bucs win they tend to win big with their 7 wins coming by an average of 17 points.  Lay it with Tampa.

#124 ASA CFB TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Stanford, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This is simply a terrible situation for Stanford.  They are playing their 3rd straight road game and they haven’t even been home period since last Tuesday, Dec 1st.  Santa Clara county announced that contact sports would be put on hold starting November 30th and lasting until at least December 21st.  Because of that, the only way Stanford can play or practice was to leave the area.  Last Tuesday they made their way to Seattle, stayed in a hotel, practiced where they could and then played Washington on Saturday.  The Cardinal were able to pull together and pick up a huge upset beating the Huskies 31-26 as a 13 point underdog.  That was just a week after they beat arch rival Cal 24-23.  So now Stanford is off back to back huge wins and on the road again vs a team they probably will have trouble getting excited about, Oregon State.  On top of that, Stanford traveled straight from Seattle to Corvallis, has been living in a hotel again this week preparing for this game and they are now a road favorite.  Not ideal to say the least.  OSU is underrated in our opinion.  Two weeks ago they upset Oregon here 41-38 putting up 260 yards on the ground.  Top RB Jefferson 226 yards.  A week earlier they beat Cal here at home with Jefferson rushing for 196 yards vs a very good Golden Bear defense.  After their big win over the Ducks, OSU traveled to Utah short handed missing a number of players due to covid including RB Jefferson.   Starting QB Gebbia who was injured vs Oregon and is out for the season.  Despite being shorthanded, they played a solid Utah team to the wire losing 30-24.  Back up QB Nolan got his feet wet last week and played pretty well @ Utah throwing for 200 yards and rushing for 36.  The Beavers get RB Jefferson back here along with some other key players who were out last week.  They should be able to run the ball very well on this Stanford defense that ranks 100th nationally stopping the run.  Bad spot for Stanford vs a undervalued OSU team.  Take the points.

#410 ASA CFB PLAY ON 8* Toledo -11 over Central Michigan, Saturday at 3 PM ET - These two have the same 3-2 records, but Toledo is the much better team.  The Rockets might just be the best overall team in the MAC this season.  They rank 1st in the conference in total defense and 2nd in total offense.  CMU ranks 9th in total defense and 6th in total offense.  These two teams have each played 5 games on the year and 4 of those game vs common opponents.  Because of that, the stats for each team need to be compared.  Toledo has a +13 PPG differential, a +153 YPG differential and a +1.7 YPP differential on the season.  CMU has a +1.5 PPG, a -3 YPG differential and -0.1 YPP differential on the season.  If we break down the total yardage in just their 4 common opponents (Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Ball State, and Eastern Michigan), Toledo has outgained those opponents by +505 total yards while CMU has been outgained by -96 total yards.  Toledo, despite their 2 losses (both by 3 points), has outgained every opponent they’ve played this season.  They also have the best point differential in the MAC West.  The Rockets only 2 losses came by 3 points vs Ball St & Western Michigan who sit tied for first place in the MAC West.  Again, Toledo outplayed both of them on the stat sheet.  Speaking of Ball State, Central Michigan played the Cards last Saturday and got thumped 45-20 getting outgained by 177 yards.  The Chips had to go with their back up QB Brock (threw 2 interceptions) and he will get the go again here as the starter is banged up and will only be used in an emergency situation.  Toledo will also be using their back up QB here, Carter Bradley, however he has plenty of experience playing in multiple games last season.  He looked great last week throwing for 432 yards and 3 TD’s in the Rockets 41-24 win @ Northern Illinois.  Extra motivation here for Toledo as well as they were walloped 49-7 in last year’s season finale @ Central Michigan.  The favorite has covered 11 straight in this series and Toledo is 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they’ve faced CMU here at home.     

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo +2 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - San Francisco has had plenty of distractions leading up to this game as they’ve had to move their entire operation to Phoenix where they will play the remainder of their “home” games.  Making it worse, the Niners have already been on the road 4 of their last 5 games.  This will be the 5th weekend they’ve been away from home since October 25th.  We also like the line value here.  Our power ratings have Arizona a few spots ahead of SF and Buffalo was +3 here vs the Cards just a few weeks ago.  Now they are +2 vs SF on this neutral site.  In that game vs the Cardinals on November 15th the Bills led 23-9 midway through the 3rd quarter.  That was the infamous hail mary game as Arizona QB Murray threw a 43 yard TD pass to WR Hopkins with 2 second remaining in the game to pull out a miracle 32-30 come from behind win.  Buffalo had this solid Arizona team beat on their home field.  SF’s defense has some solid numbers this year but they have struggled with mobile QB’s which Buffalo’s Josh Allen definitely is.  When facing Arizona (Kyler Murray), Seattle (Russell Wilson), New Orleans (Taysom Hill) and New England (Cam Newton) the Niners are just 1-3 with their only win coming vs the Patriots.  San Fran is getting some extra love after pulling the upset vs the Rams in their most recent game.  Let’s not forget prior to that upset, they had lost 3 in a row all by double digits.  QB Mullens is not a bet on signal caller in our opinion as he is just 5-9 in his 14 NFL career starts.  Seems like everyone is on the Niners here as we’ve flopped favorite as Buffalo opened as a 2.5 point favorite.  We’ll gladly take the value and go against everybody here. 

#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -3 over Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We love this spot for Indy.  They are off a blowout home loss to Tennessee last week.  The defense, which was short handed last Sunday, allowed Tennessee 6.6 YPP which is their worst performance of the season.  Even with that, this Colt defense ranks 7th in the NFL in YPP allowed.  They were without their top DL Buckner and their top DE Autry who lead the team in sacks.  Both are back for this game and we expect an angry Indy defense that plays very well.  Offensively they were also without their top RB Taylor last week and he is back on Sunday.  Houston, on the other hand, has lost a number of key players this week.  Their top WR Fuller and top DB Roby have both been suspended for using PED’s.  The loss of Fuller is huge for this offense as he had become QB Watson’s favorite target with 22 catches for almost 400 yards over the last 4 games.  They are now really thin at WR after cutting Kenny Stills last week and losing Randall Cobb to injury.  That’s a big problem for a team that can’t run the ball (31st in the NFL averaging only 83 YPG on the ground).  On the other side of the ball the Texans rank 30th in total defense and 30th in YPP defense.  So that can’t run the ball, their defense has been poor, and they are now very inexperienced at WR.  Not a winning combination.  The Texans have won 3 of their last 4 but they’ve been outgained in each of those games.  They have 4 wins this year vs Jacksonville (twice), Detroit, and New England who are all below .500 and have a combined record of 10-23.  Indy is now sitting at 7-4 and 1-game behind Tennessee so a must win here.  Indy’s offense has scored 30+ in 4 of their last 6 games and should put up plenty of points vs a bad Houston defense.  The Colts are the better team and they are 7-0-1 ATS their last 8 trips to Houston.  Lay the FG here.

#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -12.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line opened with Wisconsin -11 and that was before IU knew their starting QB Penix was out for the season.  Once that was announced this line jumped to -14 and we don’t think it’s enough.  Penix is worth much more than 3 points to this team.  He was a huge reason their offense was able to top 30 points in 4 of their first 6 games.  He led the Big 10 in passing yards and has accounted for 16 of IU’s 24 TD’s this season.  The best 2 teams IU played this season were PSU which they beat on OT 36-35 despite getting outgained by almost 300 yards.  Then their game @ OSU was on the way to being a blowout with the Buckeyes up 35-7 when Penix went wild and threw for almost 500 yards and 5 TD’s to bring the Hoosiers back in that game.  Without Penix, we have no doubt they lose vs PSU (who now has only 1 win on the season) and they get destroyed by OSU.  What makes him even more important to this offense is the fact that Indiana can’t run the ball.  They put up good numbers on the ground last week vs Maryland, who ranks 116th in rush defense, but prior to that they were averaging 73 YPG on the ground.  That puts huge pressure on the QB to make plays and Penix was up to the task.  Now they start Jack Tuttle who has 16 career pass attempts.  On top of that they face a Wisconsin defense that is outstanding.  The Badgers rank #1 nationally in total defense, #3 in rush defense, and #3 in pass defense.  IU will not be able to run the ball in this game.  Tuttle will have to have the game of his life to keep the Hoosiers in this one.  We don’t see that happening.  Wisconsin is fresh for this one.  They had last week’s game vs Minnesota cancelled.  HC Chryst mentioned his team was able to heal up with the week off after their loss @ Northwestern.  In that game Wisconsin lost 17-7 but their were +5 first downs, +103 total yards, +112 rushing yards, and +15 minute time of possession.  Problem is they had 5 turnovers which is unlike a Wisconsin team.  They also played that game with both starting WR’s out and they were down to playing a freshman and 2 senior walk ons.  Because of that, QB Mertz was out of synch with his receivers from the beginning and tried to force a few things which led to turnovers.  The Badger defense held Northwestern to just 3.4 YPP in that loss and the Cats rushed the ball 23 times for 24 yards.  Again, IU will not have success on the ground in this game.  With the Badgers coming off a disappointing loss, with extra time to prepare, getting healthy (WR Davis is the only question mark on offense), and facing a team with an inexperienced QB we love this situation.  On top of that, while the Badgers are rested and healthy, this will be Indiana’s 7th straight week without a break.  We don’t think Wisconsin will have to score much to cover this number.  With the total set at 45.5, the projected score is right around 30-16.  We think the Badger offense gets rolling here and scores at least that while we would not be at all surprised if Indiana scores less than 14 points.  Wisconsin has won 10 straight in this series and we think they take another here by more than 2 TD’s.

#395 ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Iowa State is off a win at Texas last week and in the perfect spot for a letdown after all the late game dramatics in the win over the Longhorns.  The Cyclones have won 4 straight games and now are in the ideal spot to get upended as West Virginia certainly does not want to see the Cyclones punch a ticket to the Big 12 title game at their expense.  West Virginia has a fantastic defense and that will be a key in this game as Iowa State allowed 448 yards last week and is simply not on the same level defensively as the Mountaineers are.  West Virginia is allowing only 274 yards per game on the season.  On the other side of the ball, Mountaineers QB Doege has a 13-3 ratio and has helped lead the way for an offense averaging over 440 yards per game this season.  While Cyclones QB Purdy is having a respectable season as well, the pass defense of WVU is giving up 76.5 yards per game less than the Iowa State pass defense.  Our computer math modeling reflects Doege having strong odds for a bigger game than Purdy in this one.  The Mountaineers will be the fresher team here as they have been off since November 14th while the Cyclones are playing for the 3rd time since November 21st.  Big difference and that will prove important as this game gets further into the 3rd and 4th quarters.  The Cyclones are ranked 12th in the nation while the Mountaineers are unranked and yet this line moved off the key number of 7 and settled in at 6.5 during the week.  That is a strong indicator that sharps are siding with the dog here and the books are respecting that.  We're putting our sharp money right there as well with the Mountaineers ranking among the top defenses in the country and WVU is sure to bring their A game for this match-up given the situation.  This one has the right ingredients for a road dog upset and we're grabbing the points as West Virginia.

#412 ASA PLAY ON 8* Auburn Tigers (+) over Texas A & M Aggies, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - First off this is an interesting line in this game.  The Aggies are a highly-ranked team and opened up as low as a 4-point choice even though they are facing an unranked foe.  Sure enough, as we expected, the betting markets jumped on Texas A & M and drove the line up to as high as a -7 before it settled in at a -6.5 as of Friday afternoon.  We're happy to grab the additional line value here with the home dog Tigers as this one sets up very nicely.  Auburn is 4-0 SU at home this season and enter this game off a road loss which was to be expected as they faced mighty Alabama last week.  The Tigers are already 2-0 SU this season when off a loss and have covered 3 of their 4 home games on the year.  Aggies QB Kellen Mond is coming off a very rough start (11 of 34 for just 105 yards) and that was against an LSU defense that has struggled this season.  Now Mond faces a Tigers team that has allowed 17 points or less in 3 of its 4 home games this season.  Taking a look at the offensive production in this one, Auburn has scored an average of 34.3 points per game at home this season.  The Aggies had a blowout win in their most recent road game but that was against a bad South Carolina team.  In their other two road games Texas A & M averaged only 26 points per game.  The Aggies are off back to back big wins but against South Carolina and LSU (combined 5-11 record) and now face an Auburn team with a much better defense than those teams.  The Tigers, on the other hand, just faced the toughest team in the nation and will respond after the 29-point loss to Alabama.  The Aggies do have revenge here against Auburn but that is part of what is driving this line movement and revenge is often over-played.  Per our computer math modeling, the line move will prove to be wrong in this one and the underdog offers solid line value here.  This one has the makings of a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with Auburn.

#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -6 over Denver, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET - Looking at this number we can compare it to the Miami/Denver game last week and we see the value with the Saints. Last week a pretender the Miami Dolphins were just favored in Denver by 4 and now the Saints who might be the 2nd best team in the NFL are only -6.5.  Last week we felt the Broncos would be able to run on a Dolphins defense that is not good against the rush and they did it with 189yds. But Denver won't run here against the #1 ranked rushing D in the NFL allowing just 74RYPG and that puts the pressure on QB Drew Lock - who 2 weeks ago threw 4 INTS.  On the season Lock has 7 TD’s and 11 INT’s. New Orleans defense has 11 INT's this season tied for 4th most and could feast on Lock and the Broncos offense. In fact, the Saints produced 8 sacks last week vs. Atlanta and are 4th in the NFL at 3.2 sacks per game.  Just how dominant was the Saints defense last week against the Falcons? New Orleans just held Atlanta to 14 first downs and 52 rushing yards.  Saints QB Taysum Hill answered a lot of questions last week with his performance by going 18/23 passing with 233 yards NO INT’s. He’s also a duel threat under center with 51 yards rushing and 2 TD’s.  Consider this, last week the Saints averaged 6.8 Yards Per Play a FULL YARD more than their season average with Drew Brees. The Saints also average 10 Yards per pass attempt against the Falcons which is significantly better than their season average of 7.4YPPA.  Denver leans on a defense that is 9th in overall defensive efficiency but that typical advantage gets nullified here against a Saints offense that is clicking. The Saints have averaged 30PPG on: Tampa (2nd DEFF), San Francisco (10th DEFF) and Chicago (4th DEFF).  Just looking at raw data, New Orleans has a huge advantage offensively with the 5th most efficient offense compared to Denver who is last.  New Orleans has the 3rd best Margin of Victory this season at +7.3PPG / Denver loss margin -6.1PPG 28th in NFL.  We like the Saints laying under a TD here.

#194 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11 over Rutgers, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We love this situation for the Boilers.  They have lost 2 straight vs Northwestern & Minnesota so this is a very important home game for them.  Last week’s loss @ Minnesota was the infamous invisible offensive pass interference game.  Purdue scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining that seemingly gave them the win.  However, a terrible offensive pass interference was called taking away the TD and Purdue threw an interception on the next play in their 34-31 loss.  That game was on Friday which gave them an extra day to get ready for this must win game.  The Boilermakers outgained Minnesota by 100 yards in the game & had 8 more first downs in the loss.  We really liked what we saw from QB Plummer as he threw for 367 yards and 3 TD’s.  He was replacing O’Connell who was the starter (out with injury)  however we don’t consider Plummer a back up.  He started 7 games a year ago and was in a neck & neck battle with O’Connell for this year’s starting job.  We expect another big game from him vs a leaky Rutgers pass defense that ranks 95th nationally allowing 265 YPG through the air.  Another huge addition for Purdue last week was WR Moore who was back in the line up for the first time this year.  He is their best offensive weapon and accounted for 136 total yards last week.  Purdue’s offense will put plenty of points on the board here vs a Rutgers defense that has allowed 37 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games.  Rutgers had a crushing home defeat last week.  They faced a Michigan team that obviously is not nearly as good as they’ve been in the past, but they still have the name recognition so it was a huge game for Rutgers.  They jumped out to a 17-0 lead, then went down 35-27 late in the game, had to score a TD + 2 point conversion with under 1:00 minute remaining to send the game to OT.  On top of that, the Scarlet Knights then missed a FG in OT that would have given them the win and they wound up losing in 3 OT’s.  Now they have to go on the road and we just don’t see them playing well here after last week’s situation.  Plus, while they are improved, they still only have 1 win vs Michigan State (Sparty turned the ball over 7 times in that game) and they’ve been outgained in every game.  Even with their improvement, this Rutgers team ranks 91st nationally in total offense and 92nd in total defense.  This is a bad match up for them vs a Purdue team that is now at full strength on offense and is flying under the radar right now.  Rutgers has been a terrible road team with a 2-19 SU record their last 21 away from home and 17 of those losses have come by double digits.  We also like the line value here.  We have Purdue as 14 point favorite in our power ratings.  Last week Michigan was favored by this same number (-11) @ Rutgers and Purdue is better than Michigan this yet only laying -11 here.  Take the Boilermakers as this game has blowout potential.

#180 ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan State +13.5 over Northwestern, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We definitely look for Northwestern to be flat here after beating Wisconsin in their biggest game of the season last week.  That game basically locked up the Big 10 West for the Cats, especially now that the Badgers are not eligible (need to play at least 6 games) to win the division after getting their game with Minnesota cancelled this week.  The Cats haven’t been a great first half team to begin with this year.  If we throw out their first game vs Maryland (43-3 win) the Wildcats have outscored their last 4 opponents by a combined 2 points in the first half.  They’ve trailed at half in 2 of their last 4 games and they’ve been outgained in 3 of those games.  50 of the 60 points the Northwestern defense has allowed this year have come in the first half.  They make great adjustments on that side of the ball at halftime allowing just 10 total points in the 2nd half this year.  MSU had last week off after their game @ Maryland was cancelled.  They used last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday to work on fundamentals which we think is key.  They started prep for this game on Monday and coming of back to back losses vs Iowa & Indiana, we feel this is a rally the troops type home game for the Spartans.  Their offense should have some success here in the first half vs Northwestern.  They shouldn’t need much because the Cats simply don’t score many points in general and in the first half they are averaging just 13 PPG (last 4 games).  If MSU gets to 7 or 10 here by halftime, we really like them to cover this first half line.  Northwestern may regroup in the 2nd half, but we see them having a lackadaisical performance in the first 30 minutes.  Even if adjustments are made at halftime and Northwestern is better in the 2nd half, we still don't see them scoring enough to cover this large spread.  Take MICHIGAN STATE.

#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State Cyclones (+) over Texas Longhorns, Friday at 12:00 PM ET - Texas has covered 4 straight games in this series and the Longhorns are at home here and very little separates these teams in the rankings and yet the line is a pick'em!  This is even though the last time these teams met in Austin (just two years ago), UT won the game by two touchdowns and won the yardage battle by nearly 200 yards.  That was then, this is now, and the Cyclones are positioned well here.  Iowa State has won 6 of their last 7 games and the only loss in that stretch was a tight 24-21 defeat.  The Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas team playing for the first time in 3 weeks.  A scheduled bye week for the Longhorns was followed by a postponement last week as UT's game versus Kansas was pushed back to the end of the season.  A break is good but not when it is too much of a break.  Remember that the Longhorns also did not have a game in mid-October either.  That means this game, near the very end of November, was preceded by just 3 games for UT since the 11th of October!   The Longhorns were a favorite in this game when the line first popped up and though the line is moving toward a pick'em, it is worth mentioning that the Horns have a strong tendency to not perform as well at home under coach Herman.  In fact, the Longhorns have covered only 3 of their last 13 as a home favorite!  Iowa State has plenty of confidence entering this game as they have exploded for an average of 45 points per game during their current 3-game winning streak.  QB Brock Purdy and the Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas pass defense allowing over 300 passing yards per game in its last 4 games.  Though the Horns run defense has been solid, Iowa State running back Breece Hall is leading the nation in rushing with nearly 1,200 yards on the ground plus he has run for 15 touchdowns already this season.  Hall is a big reason the Cyclones offensive attack is so balanced and they will give the UT defense trouble in this one.  As for the Iowa State defense, they have held their last 5 opponents to an average of only 297 yards per game.  Texas has been the SU winner in 7 of the last 8 meetings in Austin but there is a reason the line on this game is set the way it is.  Though Iowa State did win against the Longhorns last season, they certainly have been reminded of how their last visit to Austin played out.  Per our computer math model, all signs point to the Cyclones getting some payback here for an ugly performance in their most recent visit to UT.  This one is set up for a big road win and Iowa State is the play here.

#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +10.5 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Talk about a ho-hum type game for the Steelers. They are coming off a division game vs the Bengals and they have a huge rematch on deck vs Baltimore. Not only do they play their arch rival Ravens next, it’s on Thanksgiving Day just 4 days away. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if Pittsburgh was flat as a pancake in this game. Pittsburgh has a history of playing to the level of their competition. This year alone they went to the wire with the Broncos, Cowboys, and Texans. Just a few weeks ago they went to Dallas as a big favorite, got outgained, and never led until 2:00 minutes to go in the game (Pitt win 24-19). Speaking of playing to the level of competition, the Steelers are now 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they’ve been favored by 10 or more. Dating back to 1980, they are just 25-40 ATS as a double digit favorite (38%). Pitt is really struggling to run the ball as of late which we like to see if fading a big favorite. Over their last 3 games they’ve run for 48, 46, and 44 yards. That’s it. And 2 of those games came against Dallas & Cincinnati who rank 31st and 27th respectively defending the run. Despite their record Jacksonville is showing some fight. Last week they’ve gave a very good Green Bay team all they could handle at Lambeau in a 24-20 loss. The Jags, unlike the Steelers, have started to run the ball very well outrushing each of their last 3 opponents. During that stretch they rushed for 140, 115, and 109 yards vs Chargers, Texans, and Packers. New starting QB Luton has looked solid in his 2 starts taking both Houston and GB to the wire in tight losses (473 yards passing). Defensively they’ve also improved as of late. After allowing 30 or more points in 6 straight games, they’ve held Houston and Green Bay, 2 of the top 10 offenses on a YPP basis, to 27 & 24 points. Jacksonville is still putting forth solid effort. Pittsburgh is in a tough spot playing their fourth road game in five weeks. We like the Jags to hang around in this game and cover the big number.

#358 ASA PLAY ON 8* Ohio State -20.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 Noon ET - We’re simply not sold on the undefeated Hoosiers quite yet.  They are 4-0 but let’s quickly recap their games so you can see what we mean.  They opened the season beating PSU 36-35 in OT.  Looked like a great win at the time.  PSU is now 0-4.  Not only that, the Nittany Lions dominated that game with nearly a +300 total yard advantage.  Their other wins have come against Rutgers, Michigan, and Michigan State.  Their home win vs the Wolverines looked great at the time as well but now, not swo much.  The combined record of those teams that IU beat is 3-10.  We think they are walking into a hornet’s nest here.  OSU had an unwanted bye last week as their game vs Maryland was cancelled.  They are healthy and anxious to get back on the field.  This is a prove a point type game for the Buckeyes and it might be their last one until the Big 10 Championship game as they should be favored by 28+ from this point on in the regular season.  IU is tied with OSU for first place in the Big 10 East and the winner has the inside track to the conference championship game.  Don’t think that hasn’t been brought up numerous times to the OSU players.  We think they get ahead and don’t take their foot off the pedal in this one as they want to make a statement.  Indiana struggles to run the ball ranking 117th nationally despite their easy schedule thus far.  That puts a ton of pressure on QB Penix to make plays and he has this year, however he’s seen nothing close to the defense he’ll see on Saturday.  He’s been fairly mistake free with just 3 interceptions this year.  We think that changes here vs a Buckeye defense that has 5 takeaways in 3 games.  The Hoosier defense has seen nothing close to OSU’s offense this season.  The QB’s they’ve faces are PSU’s Clifford (already been benched), Rutgers Vedral (already thrown 7 picks averaging only 180 YPG passing), Michigan’s Milton (just 58% completion rate), and MSU’s Lombardi (already benched).  Now they face Justin Fields who has completed 87% of this passes this year (only 11 incompletions this season) who has thrown for 52 TD’s and just 3 interceptions since taking over last season.  Ohio State has won 25 straight in this series and each of the last 4 have come by at least 21 points.  They were favored by 17 @ Indiana last year and won by 41 points.  We think OSU rolls in this game.

#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Air Force Falcons (-) over New Mexico Lobos, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - This line opened up at double digits and, as of Thursday afternoon, is down to a -7 on the Falcons.  We like the line value here with a move that we fully understand here but absolutely disagree with.   Part of the reason for the move is Rocky Long is the defensive coordinator for New Mexico and he has, in his pedigree, a history of stopping option teams.  However, he doesn't have the personnel this season to do it.  Three of the key components to properly stopping an option attack are game-planning, talent, and execution.  Long can game-plan all he wants but he still has to have the proper personnel and disciplined players to go out and execute and this is a bad Lobos defense.  So far this season they have not given up much on the ground but that's simply because teams know they can throw all over them.  In other words it does not necessarily mean that New Mexico is built to stop the run, it just means that when a team is allowing 410.3 passing yards per game why not throw against them?  That is the type of defense we're talking about here...a very bad one!  The Lobos have lost all 3 of their games this season and each of the last two seasons they were beaten badly in their match-ups with Air Force.  The Falcons won those games by an average margin of 20 points per game.   Also, AF averaged 345.5 yards per game on the ground and 236 yards through the air.  The Falcons enter this game off back to back losses but had over 400 yards rushing in their most recent game and that was against a tough Boise State team!  Now Air Force enters well-rested as they have had some covid issues result in postponements in recent weeks.  They will be ready to go here and just like in their season opener against Navy (we had the Falcons in that blowout  win of 40-7) when everyone doubts Air Force they seem to be at their best.  Look for them to take advantage of a Lobos offense likely to again be without QB Tevaka Tuioti (doubtful - concussion) and that means we likely again see Trae Hall under center.  Hall has a 0-2 TD-INT ratio this season and has been sacked 4 times in just about 40 dropbacks to pass plus he has not had success running the ball.  He also completes only about 50% of his passes.  On the other side of the ball, again Long just doesn't have the guys to be a successful defense.  This team lost nearly every starter from last year's defense and they are especially thin up front.  New Mexico has been playing their games in, and practicing in, Vegas due to covid issues in New Mexico.  Air Force has been at home and hungry to get back on the field after the Falcons lost at home against Boise State 3 weeks ago.  The Falcons have extra rest while the Lobos are playing a 4th straight week and the AF ground game will eventually wear them down.  The Falcons roll in this one.  This one has the makings of a home blowout and we're laying the points with Air Force.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -3 over Arizona - Value is on Seattle here.  They are favored by 3 in this game which is the same number they were favored @ Arizona just a few weeks ago.  Zona won that game 37-34 in OT but Seattle outgained the Cards and led by 10 with just 3:00 minutes remaining.  Seahawks have lost 2 in a row which is why this number is low.  Those losses were @ Buffalo (Seattle had 4 turnovers) and @ LA Rams who were coming off a bye.  They are still undefeated at home this year.  Arizona hasn’t been on the road since October 19th.  They are coming off a 3 game home stand where all 3 went to the wire (Seattle, Miami, and Buffalo).  Last week they pulled a miracle win over the Bills on a hail mary as time expired.  Arizona is just 2-2 on the road despite playing one of the easier road slates in the NFL (Jets, Cowboys, Panthers, and Niners) who combined for a 9-29 overall record.  Arizona’s defensive line is banged up with only 3 healthy players and Seattle gets RB Hyde back from injury here.  The Seahawks rushed for 200 yards in the first meeting and they should have success on the ground here which opens things up for QB Wilson.  Speaking of Wilson, he has NEVER lost 3 games in a row since coming to Seattle.  We don’t think he will here.  If he can limit turnovers tonight (Seattle had 3 in the first meeting) we like the home team to cover.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Western Michigan Broncos, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #314

Central Michigan not only lost at home to the Broncos last season, they also lost their most recent home meeting with Western Michigan as well.  Both defeats came by a double digit margin and now the Chippewas get revenge in an ideal situation.  The Broncos are off a last second win that involved a crazy late rally against Toledo last week.  That was a big revenge win for Western Michigan and it will be tough for the Broncos to come right back and play a strong game after what will likely go down as one of the most unlikely wins of this entire college football season.  Western Michigan scored 13 points with less than a minute to go in the game last week!  Central Michigan has been strong on defense as they have held their first two opponents to an average of 294.5 ypg.  The Broncos had an easy time with Akron in week one but then allowed over 500 yards of offense to Toledo last week.  That doesn't bode well for this week as they now take on a Chippewas team which is averaging 35 points per game this season.  Last season after the Chips lost at Western Michigan they won 6 of 7 games to close out the regular season and they have begun this season with a 2-0 mark.  As you can see, the Chippewas are surging and playing with confidence and they catch the Broncos off a very emotional win last week.  Our computer math model indicates high probability for a home win and Central Michigan is now a home dog here.  We'll take it!   

ASA PLAY ON 8* Akron Zips (+) @ Kent State Golden Flashes, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #302

This is too many points for a rivalry game.  Not only have these teams split the last ten meetings, Akron had won 4 straight games in this series prior to last season's loss in this match-up.  While this is a tough match-up for the Zips in what is appearing to be a rough season for them, there is no doubt they are going to bring a strong effort against their biggest rival.  Last week, Akron did look much better than they did in their first game as the Zips were a 27 point dog and yet didn't even give up 27 points in the game!  This week they are again in that line range as the markets continue to over-adjust to some early blowouts in MAC action. Kent State is off a massive win last week but their first win this season came by just 4 points.  Also, early this season the Zips have played the tougher schedule in comparison with the Golden Flashes.  That is helping to lead to huge line value here in a rivalry game.  The Zips defense has been respectable with allowing only 396.5 yards per game so far this season and will keep them in this game as well.  Grab the big points with Akron in what is forecast to be a much closer game than expected for this big road dog in evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago +3.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - This line opened with the Bears favored by -1.5 and has swung a full 4 points to Minnesota -3.5.  Too much in our opinion and the Vikings don’t justify laying more than 3 in this game.  Sure the Vikes are 2-0 since their bye week beating Green Bay and Detroit, but they were +6 @ GB and just -3 at home vs Detroit.  Now they are laying more than that @ Chicago?  Bad line.  Minnesota was able to run the ball at will vs those 2 defenses which rank 23rd and 24th in the NFL in YPC allowed.  Now they face a top 10 rush defense with Chicago allowing just 4.1 YPC.  Last week the Bears faced a Tennessee offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in rushing and held them to just 92 yards on the ground on 3.0 YPC.  Derrick Henry had just 68 yards on 21 attempts.  The Bears lost that game but actually outplayed the Titans on the road with a +11 first down edge and +147 total yardage edge.  If Chicago can slow down Dalvin Cook that places the pressure on QB Cousins to win the game.  We know how that goes as he is known for not stepping up in big moments and is 0-9 SU on Monday night football.  The Vikings offense has looked good but they’ve played mainly average to poor defenses.  In fact, 7 of their 8 opponents rank 19th or lower in YPP defense this season.  The one top 10 defense they played this year was Indy and the Vikings scored only 11 points in that game.  Chicago will be the best defense they’ve faced since that game which was back on September 20th.  The Bears offense looked much better last week putting up 375 yards on Tennessee.  Tonight they face a Minnesota defense that ranks a few spots below Tennessee when it comes to YPP defense (25th overall) and we expect Chicago to do enough on offense to have a great shot to win this game outright.  The Bears are 4-0 SU vs the Vikings since Matt Nagy took over as HC and we give them a great shot at making that 5-0 tonight.  If not, we expect a very close game and getting over a FG at home with the much better defense is our pick.  Take the Bears.

#273 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore -7 over New England, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - New England has fallen more than we ever thought they would. The loss of Tom Brady along with a league high 8 corona virus opt outs this year, many key contributors, have sent this team toward the bottom of the AFC. 2 of their 3 wins came early in the season but as of late this team has lost 4 of their last 5 with their only win coming on a last second FG vs the hapless Jets. That was on Monday night of this week so the Pats are working on a short week. In that game, New England ran a whopping 34 more offensive plays compared to the Jets and it still took a FG as time expired to win. They were outgained on a YPP basis vs the Jets and fairly handily 7.3 to 5.7. The Patriot defense allowed a Jet offense that ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 4.5 YPP to roll up their best numbers of the year at over 7.0 YPP. And that was with back up QB Flacco at the helm for NY. The offense was sputtering before facing the Jets last week scoring 10, 12, 18 and 21 points their previous 4 games. Now they face one of the top defensive units in the NFL and we don’t expect them to do much on Sunday night. If Baltimore can run the ball their offense is very good. They lead the NFL in rushing and they face a Patriot defense that is 25th at stopping the run. If the Jets can score 27 points on 7.3 YPP vs New England, imagine what Baltimore will do. Baltimore has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Pittsburgh and the Ravens ran for 265 yards in that game vs the #1 rush defense in the league at the time. The Ravens beat this Patriots team by 17 points last year w/Tom Brady and we see no reason they don’t run away with this one. They have plenty of motivation sitting 2 games behind Pittsburgh in the AFC East. Lay it.

#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Buffalo picked up a huge home win last week over Seattle 44-34.  However, the yardage was about dead even for the game but Seattle had 4 TO’s and Buffalo scored points after each one of those turnovers.  Prior to last week, the Buffalo offense had not been playing well at all.  In their previous 4 games they had scored 16, 17, 18 and 24 points.  Their offense looked much better last week but they were playing the last ranked defense in the NFL (Seattle) along with the 4 TO’s which put the offense in a number of good field position situations.  The Buffalo defense continued to struggle giving up 6.7 YPP.  This defense is not even close to the same level as last year’s that allowed a full 1.0 YPP less.  Big win and now on the road will be tough for Buffalo who hasn’t played on the road since beating the hapless Jets 18-10 on October 25.  Arizona is playing their third straight home game and coming off a loss.  They should have some extra motivation off that loss and the fact that they play 3 of their next 4 on the road.  This is a big game for Arizona.  Last week they lost 34-31 vs Miami despite outgaining the Fins by 130 yards and +1.3 YPP.  The Cards come into this one ranking #1 in the NFL in total offense and #2 in rushing.  That’s going to be a problem for a Buffalo defense that has struggled to stop the run this year allowing 125 YPG.  Despite their records (Arizona is 5-3 / Buffalo is 7-2) the Cards own the better point differential (+54 to +9) and the better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.3).  Arizona QB Murray has a big day vs the Buffalo defense and the Cards get the home cover.

#259 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia -4 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This is just a terrible spot for the Giants. This will be their 10th consecutive week with out a bye and they are facing a Philly team that is getting healthy and coming off their bye week. Last week the Giants topped Washington 23-20 in what we call a false final score. Washington outgained the Giants 402 to 350 despite running 24 fewer offensive snaps. The YPP final tally was Washington 8.0 and NYG 4.7. That’s a Washington offense that ranks right near the bottom of the NFL in YPP offense averaging just 4.9. Washington had a ridiculous 5 turnovers and the Giants still barely won the game. Just 2 weeks ago the NYG defense held Washington to 4.9 YPP in their 20-19 win. To put that in perspective, Washington’s highest YPP total before last week was 6.0 and that was vs a terrible Dallas defense. It looks to us like the Giants are running out of gas on defense which is understandable having played 10 consecutive weeks. The Eagles are the most talented team in this crappy division. They lead the NFC East with a 3-4-1 record despite the fact they’ve been one of the most injured teams in the NFL this season. They are now starting to get healthy after the bye week with starting LT Johnson, starting WR Jeffery, and starting RB Sanders all coming back. These 2 faced off a few weeks ago and the Eagles came out with a tight 22-21 win. Philly outgained the Giants 442 to 325 in that game but blew a number of opportunities missing a FG, throwing a pick at the NY endzone, and they were also shut out on downs at the NY 3 yard line. Now the Eagles are healthier and rested and we think they get this win by at least a TD. Philly has won 8 straight in this series and the Giants have not stepped up at home vs better teams with a 2-12 ATS mark their last 14 as a home dog. Eagles take care of the weary Giants

#192 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON San Diego State Aztecs (-) over Hawaii Warriors, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - Situations don't get much better than this. The Aztecs just lost at home by a double digit margin even though they were a double digit favorite versus San Jose State! Undoubtedly, there will be extra focus from San Diego State this week at home after what happened right here last week. Not only that, after beating the Warriors 6 straight times both SU and ATS in MWC action, Hawaii has beaten the Aztecs each of the past two seasons including once as a huge underdog. So this is a double revenge spot for San Diego State and they are catching the Warriors at the perfect time to exact that revenge. Hawaii is off of a home win over New Mexico but they allowed 33 points to the Lobos and NM is not only one of the worst teams in the MAC but one of the worst in the nation for FBS programs! The Warriors now are on the road again - for the 3rd time in 4 weeks! - while the Aztecs are back home for a 2nd straight week. The scheduling edge and situational edge here both are huge factors. Additionally, Hawaii has allowed an average of 32 points per game their past two games and allowed 31.9 points per game last season. San Diego State allowed only 12.7 points per game last season and, before getting upset by the Spartans and allowing 28 points last week, the Aztecs allowed 7 points or less in EACH of their first two games. Huge defensive edge to the home team in this one including allowing just 233 yards per game this season while the Warriors are allowing 433 yards per game! The Aztecs also are outgaining Hawaii on the offensive side (452 to 429) and, per our computer math model, San Diego State pulls away as this one goes on. This one has all the right ingredients for a blowout home win and we're laying the points with San Diego State

#148 ASA PLAY 8* ON Boston College Eagles (+) over Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - While it is true that the Fighting Irish have beaten the Eagles big in each of the last two meetings, it is also true that this is a very unique situation.  Notre Dame is off an OT win over Clemson, the #1 team in the nation, and they have a big game against North Carolina on deck.  Will the Irish be able to fully focus on a team they've beaten by an average margin of 31 points in the past 2 meetings?  That is highly unlikely and, as a result, Boston College will take advantage and keep this game very close throughout as they seek a big upset win of their own.  Another angle to like here is Eagles QB Jurkovec going against his former team.  Though Boston College will find it a bit of a challenge to run against the ND defense, Jurkovec has a 15-4 ratio this season and will do some damage through the air here as the Fighting Irish get caught flat after the monumental win over the Tigers last week.  Though the Eagles are off a non-covering win over Syracuse last week, they did go with a very conservative gameplan there and held the Orange to only 240 yards.  On offense, Boston College certainly held back plenty in the playbook that they have been saving for this week's huge game at Chestnut Hill, MA.  Also, the Clemson team that Notre Dame just beat last week was without star QB Lawrence plus a number of starters on defense.  A big win for the Irish for sure but would have been unlikely had those guys played.  Boston College recently faced the same Clemson team and lost by only 6 points.  The point is that the Eagles can absolutely be competitive here with the Irish and the last 11 times that BC has been a home underdog they have only lost one time ATS!  This one has potential for the home dog keeping it close all the way through and we're grabbing the points with Boston College

#127 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Iowa -3.5 over Minnesota, Friday at 7:00 PM ET Iowa picked up their first win of the season last Saturday but they are much better than a 1-2 team. They’ve actually outgained all 3 of their opponents and they are +1.1 YPP differential on the season which is very solid. They’ve led all 3 games in the 4th quarter as well. The Hawks finally put it all together last week in a dominating 49-7 win over Michigan State. The defense, which has played very well this season, held MSU to just 10 first downs and only 59 yards rushing (Iowa had 226 yards on the ground). That defense is getting 2 key players back this week including starting LB Campbell who will now split time at the position helping their depth. Minnesota’s defense played much better last week but we’re not falling for it. The first 2 games they were terrible allowing 94 points on more than 9.0 YPP. So why did they look so much better last week? They played an Illinois team that has had a number of key players out with Covid and their QB position is in disarray as they were down to their 4th string QB Taylor who only completed 6 passes the entire game. This defense still stinks and even with last week’s performance they are allowing 8.2 YPP which is the worst in college football. They have the same 1-2 record as Iowa but the Gophers YPP differential is -2.0 which is a full 3 yard difference PER PLAY when compared to Iowa’s YPP differential numbers which we discussed earlier. The Gophers leaned heavy on their running game last week with 325 yards vs a terrible Illinois defense but they won’t get that luxury this week facing a Hawkeye defense that is allowing just 2.6 YPC this season. On the flip side, Iowa ran the ball very well last week and should continue vs a Minnesota defense that allows 7.3 YPC. This should keep the Iowa offense very balanced in this game which is bad news for an already terrible Gopher defense. On the other side this will be the best defense that Minnesota has faced this season. They’ve faced 2 terrible stop units (Maryland & Illinois) and a Michigan defense that has proven to be not so good thus far. The defensive difference in this game is enormous so we’re siding with Iowa to win and cover on the road.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis +2 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Colts coming off a loss with Tennessee coming off a win. We also like the fact that Indy outplayed the Ravens last week on the stat sheet while the Titans actually were outplayed by the Bears. Indy went from a 4-point dog at last week’s open vs Baltimore to a 1-point favorite near game time. They outgained the Ravens by a full +1.0 YPP in the game but had 2 turnovers which led directly to 14 of Baltimore’s 24 points. The biggest play of the game came late in the first quarter with Indianapolis already up 7-0 moving inside Baltimore’s 40 yard line looking to go up 2 scores. The Colts fumbled and it was returned 65 yards for the Ravens first TD to tie the game at 7-7. A potential 14-point turnaround on that play alone. Tennessee was favored by 6.5 at home vs Chicago and picked up a 24-17 win. The Bears outgained Tennessee by +1.0 YPP in the game despite the loss. The Tennessee defense, which ranks 25th in total defense allowed the below average Bears to roll up 375 yards. That’s a Chicago offense that had topped 280 yards only once in their previous 5 games. And the Titans weren’t playing particularly well entering the game having lost to the Steelers & Bengals in their previous 2 games. Tennessee could be sitting on a 3 game losing streak but got a little lucky last week. The Colts are 3-1 on the road this year and they own the #1 ranked total defense in the NFL. So we have a motivated team, getting points, with the much better defense. The Colts have also owned this AFC South series covering 13 of the last 17 meetings. Indy is the play on Thursday night.

#116 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Northern Illinois Huskies (+) over Central Michigan Chippewas, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Central Michigan is off a tight win at home but they were helped by a pair of Ohio University turnovers.  Also, the Bobcats simply aren't on the level with the Buffalo team that Northern Illinois had to face last week.  In fact, heading into the season many had Buffalo pegged as the best team in the MAC this season.  That said, even though the Huskies lost ugly on the scoreboard against the Bulls there are a couple of important factors to note.  One is that it was a big-time revenge game for Buffalo.  Another is that Northern Illinois was done in by turnovers in that game as too many fumbles were the difference in that one.  In fact the Huskies actually outgained the Bulls and had 26 first downs compared to just 14 for Buffalo.  Now Northern Illinois is in the 2nd of back to back home games and will certainly take better care of the ball in this one.  Central Michigan is being over-valued as this line opened up at a 6 but has moved up past the -7 mark as of Tuesday evening.  The Chippewas are getting too much respect here.  Even if QB David Moore returned from his suspension for this one it would be his first live game action in a full year.  If Central Michigan is again without Moore, most likely, it will be a redshirt freshman Daniel Richardson making his first ever road start at QB.  This will be much tougher on Richardson in comparison with playing at home last week.  The Huskies also have revenge on their minds here as they got blasted at Central Michigan last season.  The last time the Chippewas visited Northern Illinois the Chips lost by a 24-16 margin.  Per our computer math model this game has high probability that it will be a game decided by a single possession which means great value with the Huskies available in the +7.5 range for this one.  This one has potential for a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with Northern Illinois

ASA PLAY ON 8* Bowling Green Falcons (+) vs Kent State Golden Flashes, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #110

Kent State is off a win last week but it was a tight one even though it came against an Eastern Michigan team many project to be the worst team in the MAC West this season.  Bowling Green, on the other hand, is off an ugly loss but they faced a team that many expect to be the best team in the MAC West this season.  Also, the Falcons were playing right into the teeth of revenge when they faced the Rockets at Toledo last week.  As for the Golden Flashes, they were at home last week but now they are on the road and there has been an overreaction by the markets based on last week's results.  This line is up near a full 3 TDs now and, per our computer math model, that big of a number is simply not justifiable here.  The last time these teams met at Bowling Green, Kent State won the game by just a single TD.  Yes the Golden Flashes blasted the Falcons last season but the first downs were 34-20 in that game and a key difference was a 2-0 turnover differential.  That is the only reason that game ended up with such a wild margin.  Kent State allowed 473.5 yards per game last season which was one of the worst marks in the nation and their defense will give up plenty here on the road and that will make it very tough for the Golden Flashes to cover this inflated pointspread.  Grab the points with Bowling Green in what is forecast to be a much closer game than expected for this big home dog in evening action Tuesday.

#375 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -12 over Kansas State, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was OSU’s loss to Texas. In that 41-34 OT loss, OSU was +15 first downs, outgained the Longhorns 530 to 287 but had 4 turnovers (Texas had 0) which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense so the OSU defense, which is really good this year, held them 200 yards below their average. The Cowboys rank 14th nationally in total defense and they’ve held every opponent this year below their season average in YPG. The only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of them (slightly) is West Virginia and the Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. KSU will have all sorts of problems with this Oklahoma State defense as well. The Cats lost starting QB Thompson for the season a few weeks ago. His replacement Will Howard is a freshman with very little experience. Howard has now started 3 games and if you subtract KSU’s game vs Kansas who stinks, they have scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s with him under center. The Wildcats 4-2 record doesn’t look bad but the fact is they are getting outgained by almost 100 YPG and they’ve been outgained by every team they’ve faced this year with the exception of Kansas. That includes Arkansas State who upset KSU 35-31. The Cats do have a signature win over Oklahoma this year which might be keeping them overvalued but they were beaten badly in the stat sheet in that game as well with the exception of turnovers (Oklahoma had 4 / KSU had 0). They also trailed by 21 in that game but had senior QB Thompson in the line up to help with the comeback. The Cowboys offense has averaged 35 PPG over their last 3 games and they received a big boost when starting QB Sanders returned two weeks ago vs Iowa State. He has thrown for over 600 yards and 5 TD’s in his 2 games since returning. He and the OSU offense should have a field day vs a Kansas State defense that is allowing 437 YPG ranking them 78th in total defense out of 113. Last week they allowed WVU to roll up almost 500 yards and tally 37 points. We don’t think Kansas State will be able to keep up here. The Cowboys have rebounded well off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record off their last 8 defeats and they want to rebound from last week’s disappointing loss as they head into a bye week. Lay it as this has the makings of an easy win for Oklahoma State.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan -3 over Indiana, 12:00 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for Michigan. They are coming off a home loss vs Michigan State while IU sits on top of the Big Ten East with a 2-0 record, tied with OSU. The Hoosiers are very fortunate to be undefeated. They topped PSU in OT in week 1 despite getting outgained 488 to 211 and outrushed 250 to 41. Last week they beat a Rutgers team that just ended a 23 game conference losing streak a week prior. So in essence, IU won a game they shouldn’t have and beat Rutgers. Big deal. Michigan destroyed Minnesota in week 1 putting up 49 points. Last week it looked like they were a bit full of themselves entering their game vs arch rival MSU who was off a loss to Rutgers (due to 7 MSU turnovers). Sparty definitely looked like the more motivated team and pulled the upset. The Wolverines should be very motivated here off that performance. Their offense has been good putting up 481 vs Minnesota and 452 vs a solid MSU defense. On defense they’ve been solid against the run and struggled a bit vs the pass. IU can’t run the ball. They’ve averaged 1.6 YPC vs PSU and 2.6 YPC vs Rutgers. Michigan should shut down that portion of their offense making them one dimensional. Indiana QB Penix is solid but not the type of throwing quarterback you want to carry a team through the air. These 2 have faced off 32 times since 1980. Michigan has won 31 of those games and has been favored in all 32. This current line of Michigan -3 is the lowest spread ever in this series. Michigan was favored by 10 here last year with fans in the stands for IU (Mich won 39-14). Now they are a full TD lower just 1 year later with in an empty IU stadium? Looks like the Wolverines are undervalued coming off their loss while Indiana is overvalued with their 2-0 start. Lay the points with Michigan.

ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #377

A key factor during the season to find value on a weekly basis is to find games which fit the bill as a phony final where the scoreboard just does not match what truly took place on the field and the box score serves as the evidence! One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was Texas getting an upset win over Oklahoma State. In that 41-34 OT win, Texas was -15 first downs, the Longhorns were outgained 530 to 287 but had a 4-0 turnover edge which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense but it was quickly proven that a solid defense could give them problems (held under 300 yards in the OT win). Indeed, last week Texas faced an OSU defense that is really good this year and now the Longhorns face the only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of the Cowboys and that is West Virginia. The Mountaineers have been fantastic on that side of the ball this season and held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. Texas will have some problems with this West Virginia defense as well. The Mountaineers are allowing just 19.8 points and only 255.7 yards per game this season. Their defense rates a huge edge over that of the Longhorns. Texas allowed just 3 points in their season opener but that was against an out-classed UTEP team. Since then, UT has allowed 38.4 points per game. As you can see, that is almost exactly DOUBLE what the West Virginia defense is allowing this season. This is also a revenge game for the Mountaineers as they lost last season's match-up 42-31. In fact, this series has been dominated by the road team and West Virginia won at Texas 42-41 in 2018. It looks like another upset could be in the offing in this one! Mountaineers QB Doege has thrown for 300+ yards in 3 straight games and faces a Horns pass defense that has struggled in Big 12 games. Look for the road to improve to 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams as coach Herman's team falls to 3-10 ATS the last 13 times they have been a home favorite in Big 12 action. As you can see above, there is strong situational value in this spot and per our computer math model, the forecast is a close game with great potential for an outright upset for the road team in this one. Grab the points in this Saturday early afternoon Big 12 match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Colorado State Rams (+) vs Wyoming Cowboys, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #306

The Mountain West Conference season is just getting going and, as per usual, early on in the season there can be an over-reaction to just one game.  We feel that is the case here as the Rams lost by 21 points at Fresno State last week and now come into this game as a home dog of more than a field goal.  Our computer math model projections are forecasting that Colorado State will play much better at home this week.  Wyoming is off a big win versus Hawaii but that was at home.  The Cowboys are now back on the road and they lost their only road game this season.  Wyoming did force OT in their lone away game, at Nevada, but actually trailed that game by 15 points entering the 4th quarter.  The Rams best receiver, Dante Wright, missed the season opener but has been upgraded to probable for this game and that will open up the passing game for Colorado State.  The Rams will take advantage of a Wyoming defense that did allow nearly 500 yards at Nevada in their season opener.  Cowboys offense is a "run first" team and the Rams allowed just 84 rushing yards on 43 carries last week.  In other words, this one sets up very well for the host.  Grab the points with Colorado State in what could be an underdog upset and what is forecast to be, at the very least, an ATS cover for the home dog in evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +13 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We feel the Giants are in a great situational spot here with 10 days to rest & prepare off their Thursday night game. Tampa made the long trip to Las Vegas last Sunday and they are on the road again this week. Great value as well on the home team here as this spread opened Bucs -8.5 or -9, which is where we have it power rated, and it’s been pushed all the way to -13 as Tampa is now officially a public team. This number is more than double Tampa’s highest road number this year – they were favored by 6 @ Denver, at team we have rated very closely to the Giants. While NY has a poor overall record, they’ve been competitive for the most part. All but 1 of their games has been decided by 10 points or less with 4 of those games being decided by 4 points or less. The Giants have been able to hang in most of their games due to a solid yet underrated defense. They rank in the top 13 in the NFL in both YPG allowed and YPP allowed. They’ve given up 26 points or less in 5 of their games and when your getting nearly 2 TD’s that significant. Offensively they’ve started to come around after not topping 16 in any of their first 4 games the Giants have put up 34, 20, and 21 points their last 3. Tampa has a HUGE game with AFC South rival New Orleans next Sunday and we expect the Giants to give them a good run in this one. Take the points.

#268 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Chicago +4.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not huge proponents of Chicago this year as their offense has struggled, but this line in flat out wrong in our opinion.  The Bears are getting almost a TD (5 points as of this writing) vs a team we feel is drastically overvalued.  For comparison’s sake, the Saints were favored by 3 @ Detroit and by 4 @ Las Vegas in their 2 road games this year.  They lost by 10 @ Vegas and had to hold on late to beat the Lions 35-29.  Now they are laying more than that to a Bears team that is 5-2?  The Saints simply aren’t that great this year.  They have 4 wins and 3 of those have come by 6 points or less.  Last week they held on at home to beat the Panthers 27-24 but Carolina outgained them on a YPP basis.  New Orleans ran 24 more offensive plays in that game and were only able to win by 3 game home vs Carolina.  The same Panther team the Bears beat on the road by 7 a week earlier.  Prior to their Carolina win, the Saints had to come from 17 points down at home to nip the Chargers in OT.  Bears might be without WR Robinson in this game (questionable) however New Orleans will be without their top 3 WR’s here as Thomas, Sanders, and Callaway have all been ruled out.  The Saints haven’t been on the road since October 4th and they have played a single game outdoors this season.  New Orleans is an indoor, fast track team.  On Sunday they are going to get 25 MPH winds and temps in the 30’s (windchill in the 20’s) at Soldier Field facing one of the top defenses in the NFL.  We get it, Chicago looked bad on Monday night and their offense has struggled.  However, this is simply too much value on the home team to pass up in this spot.  Chicago bounces back after a poor performance, their offense looks better, and their defense continues their stellar play on Sunday.  This one goes to the wire and we grab the points with Chicago.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Louisville Cardinals (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #122

Louisville did lose at home to Miami this season but the Hurricanes only loss this season was to Clemson so the 5-1 Canes are having quite a season. The point is that the Cardinals can be a tough team at home and they have proven that with their other two games seeing them prevail by a combined score of 83 to 37 which includes last week thrashing of Florida State. We like taking teams in back to back home games when they are off a dominating win and building confidence. This is a Louisville team on the rise under coach Scott Satterfield who is now in his 2nd season here. Satterfield went 40-11 in his last 4 seasons with Appalachian State before coming to Louisville. Though the Cards are a tough 2-4 this season they easily covered at Notre Dame when they lost by just 5 as a 15.5 dog and also lost by just 3 in a tough road game at Pittsburgh. Considering those tight losses and the fact the Cardinals are off a big confidence-boosting win you can see why we like having them as a home dog in this spot. Louisville gained 569 yards of offense last week and only had to punt twice and now they host a Hokies team that is 0-3 ATS in road games this season! This is a back to back road situation for Virginia Tech for the 2nd time this season. How did the first one go? In the 2nd game of the back to back the Hokies allowed 56 points in a loss at North Carolina! Per our computer math model, Virginia Tech is going to drop to 4-12 ATS the last 16 times they have been a road favorite. This is a great spot for the home dog so we're grabbing the points in this Saturday afternoon ACC match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #185

This line may seem surprising to some considering that the Rebels record of 1-4 certainly doesn't seem worthy of this large of a point spread on the road. However, the key here is just how truly bad this Vanderbilt team is right now on both sides of the ball. The Commodores simply will not be able to keep up with a high-powered Ole Miss offense. The Rebels 34.8 points per game average is more than the TOTAL points that Vandy has scored all season! Indeed, Vanderbilt has totaled only 26 points in their 3 games. Though losing to A & M by just a 5 point margin in their first game is, on the surface, impressive, turnovers played a role in that game and helped keep Vandy in it. In their next two games the Vandy problems were not masked by turnover differential and they got blown out by a combined score of 82-14 in those two games. The Commonders defense allows 7.25 yards per play and their offense averages only 3.95 yards per play. This ranks Vandy among the worst teams in the nation on both sides of the ball. Ole Miss comes into this game angry about their 1-4 record on the season and also about feeling a bit "cheated" by a key officiating blunder in last week's loss to Auburn. With a bye week on deck, and a ton of penned up frustration to let loose, the Rebels are ready to completely obliterate the next team they see. That said, this Commodores team is in for a long afternoon even though they are on their home field. The Rebels, given the situation, will simply not let up here, and this is an offense that is averaging 521 yards per game which is more than double what the Commodores average at 257 per game. Vanderbilt also has been heavily impacted by covid issues this season and will be playing for the first time in 3 weeks! The Commodores lost by 25 at Ole Miss last season and our computer math model is forecasting a similar point differential in this one even though this game is at Vanderbilt. Ensuring the proper focus here for Ole Miss is the fact they did lose their last visit to Vandy two years ago and they have been reminded of that heading into this game. Though they lost that one by a TD it was a fluke loss as the Rebels outgained Vanderbilt by nearly 200 yards in that one! Last season, by the way, the Rebels outgained the Commodores by 242 yards. The point being that the Commodores have proven time and time again that they can not stop this Ole Miss potent attack and their ground game is phenomenal this season with two of the top rushers in the nation! On the other side of the line, the Rebels defense has been a problem this season but facing one of the worst offenses in the nation will prove to be the perfect remedy. That said, we see no way in the world that the Commodores are going to be able to keep up with an Ole Miss offense that is highly motivated and averaged 42 points in its first 3 games this season and that included games against Florida, Kentucky, and Alabama. Lay the big points and look for a dominating road rout in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan State +24.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This line is simply too high for this rivalry. Last year’s line was Michigan -13.5 at home WITH fans and now just one year later we are looking at the Wolverines nearly 2 TD’s higher in an empty stadium. Let’s not overreact to what happened last week which is why this line is so high. MSU lost at home to Rutgers, we get it. However, they outgained the Knights by nearly 100 yards but had SEVEN turnovers. MSU’s first 6 offensive possessions went like this – fumble, fumble, shut out on downs, TD, interception, and fumble. You simply have zero chance to win a game at any level if you turn the ball over on half of your offensive possessions which is exactly what the Spartans did. Defensively they were solid. The allowed barely over 2.0 YPC on the ground and they held Rutgers to less than 4.0 YPP. Michigan looked great last week (overvalued now?). They took on a Minnesota team that was returning most of their key players offensively but had to retool nearly their entire defense. The Gophs also announced just before game time they would be without 2 starting offensive lineman along with their top LB (COVID issues). Thus the new sports handicapping world we live in where PJ Fleck keeps that under wraps from everyone until right before the game starts (we had Minnesota). Let’s not forget Michigan has a brand new QB who made his first ever start, 4 new offensive lineman, and they lost their top 2 receivers from last year. Now they face an MSU defense that should be fairly solid this year and we don’t expect them to put up 40+ as they did last week vs a depleted Minnesota defense. We expect new head coach Mel Tucker to rally the troops this week after an embarrassing performance last Saturday. This is the 2nd highest spread EVER in this series and only TWICE in the last 27 games in this series has there been a winning margin of more than 24 points. The line value is definitely on MSU here and we’ll take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #118

Kansas State is off a big win over the Jayhawks. Of course Kansas is a bad football team but that is still a big game every year for the Wildcats as that is their long-time in-state rival. Off that big win, Kansas State is in trouble here as they face a Mountaineers team that comes in angry off a loss at Texas Tech. West Virginia outgained the Red Raiders by nearly 100 yards but were done in by a late fumble return for a touchdown! The Mountaineers are allowing only 262 yards per game this season and the Wildcats go from facing a bad Kansas team to now facing what has been one of the top defenses in the nation so far this season. The Mountaineers have covered each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and have 4 straight SU wins in the series as well. The Wildcats are playing their 6th game this season and so far have won the yardage battle in only 1 game this season! On the other hand, West Virginia is averaging 461 and allowing only 262 per game. The markets are a bit enamored with Kansas State here because their big win over the Jayhawks was their 4th straight cover. That is keeping this line lower than is should be and the marketplace has a short attention span and simply sees West Virginia as the team that lost to Texas Tech last week. That leads to value in a spot like this as our computer math model is forecasting a big win by a double digit margin for the home team in this one. Lay the points and look for a blowout home win in this Saturday early afternoon Big 12 match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 8* ATLANTA - Carolina has been an underdog in 6 of their 7 games this year. Their one shot as a favorite they lost by a TD to a Chicago team that isn’t looking all that great right now. The Panthers are coming off a huge division game @ New Orleans which went to the wire with the Saints winning by 3. Even though this is a division game as well, the Falcons are just 1-6 SU on the year so we wouldn’t be surprised if Carolina is a bit flat here as they have already beaten the Falcons. Atlanta has improved since their first meeting with Carolina which was a 23-16 loss. After they canned head coach Quinn the Birds beat Minnesota by 17 and lost to Detroit by 1 point in a very fluky ending. The Lions scored with no time remaining last week to pick up a 23-22 win. Defensively they allowed 32 PPG in their first 5 games and after Quinn was removed they are allowing 23 PPG with one of those games coming vs a Minnesota offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in YPP. There is something very fishy about this line. It opened Carolina -3 and despite more than 70% of the tickets coming in on the Panthers, it’s down to -2.5 and even -2 at some spots. Despite their earlier result vs Carolina this year, Atlanta has won and covered 8 of the last 10 in this series and we think they win outright tonight. Take the Falcons.

ASA PLAY 8* ON South Alabama Jaguars (+) @ Georgia Southern Eagles, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #104

The Jaguars are the hotter team with back to back wins and covers and plus are now 4-1 ATS on the season. Also, South Alabama has played the tougher early season schedule in comparison with Georgia Southern. The Eagles, despite playing a weaker schedule, have not impressed. Georgia Southern is just 2-3 ATS this season. Their only big SU win was a blowout win over a very bad UMass team. The Eagles other 2 SU wins were by a combined 6 points even though Georgia Southern was favored by an average spread of 27 in those two games - against Campbell and UL-Monroe. Part of the reason for the line value here is because Georgia Southern has dominated this series with South Alabama and that is "baked into" this line which is making it higher than it should be. The Eagles are getting some shading for that as well as shading for the home field edge here. However, the Jaguars went 6-2 ATS last year as an underdog in SunBelt Conference action. Also, South Alabama beat UL-Monroe by 24 points last week and that is the same team that Georgia Southern only beat by a margin of 5 points. It looks like this is the year the Jags finally turn the tables on the Eagles and this one sets up well with underdog value. Grab the points with South Alabama in what could be an underdog upset and what is forecast to be, at the very least, an ATS cover for the road dog in evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -6 over the Chicago Bears, Monday 8:25 PM ET - Let’s compare how these two teams currently sit in their scheduling situation. The 5-1 Bears are off a misleading win in Carolina, while the 4-2 Rams are off a Divisional loss to the 49ers. Chicago didn’t play great in Carolina with QB Nick Foles throwing for under 200 yards and the offense gaining less than 260 on the day. The Bears were outgained in the game 4.9 yards per play to 4.1YPPL but Carolina had 3 turnovers. Chicago’s offense has been brutal this year ranking 28th in yards per play offense and 27th in scoring. Against the good defenses they’ve faced (Indy, TBay and Carolina) they have averaged less than 270-total yards of offense. The Bears will face a great Rams defense tonight that is 4th in yards per game allowed and 5th in scoring D allowing just 19PPG. Los Angeles lost in San Francisco last week which doesn’t look as bad as it was now that the 49ers are getting healthy and destroyed New England on the road yesterday. The Rams are 11-4 SU their last fifteen when coming off a loss and they’ve won those games by an average of 7.6PPG which clearly gets us a cover here. Yes, these defenses are near even but the Rams have the 10th best offense in yards gained per game and have won 39 of their last 58 at home since 2017. Their average margin of victory in those games is +6PPG. Bears QB Nick Foles is best when he’s comfortable in the pocket and not pressured but that won’t be the case tonight against this Rams defense led by DE Aaron Donald. As long as this line is under a TD we will side with the Rams.

#467 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Seattle -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Arizona looks like they are rolling going 2-1 on their 3 game road trip. Not so fast. Their wins on that road trip were the winless Jets and struggling Cowboys (without Prescott at QB). Minus their win over San Francisco in the season opener where they were outgained 6.0 to 5.2 YPP, Arizona’s win shave come against teams with a combined record of 3-15 with Washington being their other win besides the two mentioned above. While the Cards on a short week after winning @ Dallas on Monday, they get to face a rested 5-0 (4-1 ATS) Seattle team coming off a bye week. This will be Seattle’s 3rd road game of the season and their first 2 were 8 & 27 point wins. That puts Seattle at 2-0 ATS on the road this year and 13-3-2 ATS their last 18 games away from home. QB Russell Wilson is 72-54-7 ATS in his career in the regular season. Road team 9-1-1 ATS last 11 meetings. Seattle has owned the Cards on the road where they are 6-0-1 SU (5-1-1 ATS) their last 7 trips here including a 27-10 here last season. The Seahawks average margin of victory over that 7 game span was +14 points. We’ll take the better team in the better situation here. Lay it with Seattle.