Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-06-19 | Broncos +7 v. Chargers | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET This line looks fishy to us. The 0-4 Denver Broncos only getting 6.5 points? Shouldn’t this be 7 or higher? A few spots have +7 by the majority are at +6.5. The Chargers were favored by 7 and 7.5 in the two meetings last year. Looks like the oddsmakers are betting people to take the Chargers in this one. We actually like this Denver team. They are much better than their 0-4 record. They’ve lost 2 games on FG’s as time expired to Chicago and Jacksonville. They lost by 11 @ Green Bay in a game that should have been much closer as the yardage was dead even and the Packers scored on a 37 yard TD drive and 5 yard TD drive following Denver turnovers. We’re not sold quite yet on the Chargers. They are very close to being 1-3 with their only win coming vs the hapless Dolphins. Their other win was at home in OT vs the Colts in a game where Indy kicker Adam Vinitieri missed 2 FG’s and an XP. If not for that, the Colts win that game. Even last week vs Miami, it was a 20-10 game entering the fourth quarter and they outgained the Fins by just 157 yards and they were +1.0 yard per play. While that may look impressive, every other team that has played Miami has outgained them by at least 195 yards and were at least +2.8 YPP. LA also has very little home field advantage and we wouldn’t be surprised to see just as many Bronco fans in the seats on Sunday. The Chargers are 0-2 ATS at home this year and just 6-15 ATS their last 21 when playing host. This is a division game so while Denver is 0-4, they’ve been very competitive and we expect them to go all out here. The underdog is 12-4-2 ATS the last 16 meetings in this AFC West rivalry and we’ll call for another underdog cover. |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers -3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a tough spot for the Jags as this will be their 3rd road game in 4 weeks including last week’s come from behind win @ Denver. Last week Jacksonville fell behind 17-3 @ Denver and had to battle their way back to get the last second win with a FG as time expired. The fact is, the Broncos ran 22 fewer offensive plays in that game and it still took a late FG to win the game for the Jaguars. Denver outgained Jacksonville on a YPP basis 6.9 to 6.0 but the Bronco defense allowed RB Leonard Fournette to run wild racking up 225 yards on the ground. Fournette had not topped 70 yards rushing in any game leading up to that performance so we see that as an outlier. Everyone is talking about the impact that QB Minshew has had on the Jags but how about Carolina QB Allen getting some notice? He gives the Panthers a much better chance to win compared to a banged up Cam Newton who couldn’t throw the ball down the field at all. Allen is now 2-0 as a starter and has thrown for almost 500 yards and 4 TD’s with no interceptions. His QBR is 65.8 which currently would rank him 6th in the NFL if he had enough snaps under his belt. For comparison’s sake, Minshew’s QBR is 47.0 which is 18th in the NFL and while we feel he is a very solid rookie, the hype has become a little much. Minshew also tweaked his knee late in last week’s game and is not 100% and was held out of practice until midweek. His counterpart Allen is not just another guy thrown in under center, he was a 5* QB recruit that actually beat out Heisman winner and Arizona QB Kyler Murray at Texas A&M prompting Murray to transfer to Oklahoma. He’s definitely not just another guy. Another aspect of Carolina’s team that gets overlooked is their defense which is really good. The Panthers currently rank 4th in the NFL in total defense allowing only 287 YPG and 2nd in YPP defense allowing just 4.3. Since losing 30-27 to the Rams in the season opener, Carolina has not allowed more than 20 points. They are very close to being 4-0 rather than 2-2 with close losses to the Rams & an emerging Tampa team. We would argue that if Allen had been under center since day one, this team might be 4-0. Add in the strong ATS stat that has Jacksonville just 4-20 ATS their last 24 games vs NFC team and this one looks solid. Just a very good situation to grab a surging Carolina team at home in this one. |
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10-06-19 | Patriots -15 v. Redskins | Top | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -15 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Horrible match up for the Skins. It looks like Washington head coach Jay Gruden will be starting rookie Dwayne Haskins at QB or veteran Colt McCoy which is not ideal vs the Patriots top notch defense. Haskins came in last week vs a bad Giant defense and threw 3 interceptions in their 24-3 loss and they were outgained by over 200 yards. McCoy hasn’t taken a snap this season and has had very little practice time with his receivers due to his recovery from last year’s broken leg. If this offense with Haskins at the helm could only score 3 points vs a Giant defense that had allowed at least 28 points in every other game, what are they going to do against a New England defense that has allowed one TD the ENTIRE season. While this line is obviously high, it’s nothing new to the Patriots who have now been favored by more than 14 points three times this season. They controlled the other two games they were tabbed big favorites vs Miami & NY Jets outscoring them by a combined 73-14 and we’d put Washington in that terrible team category at the moment. There are also rumblings of Gruden being fired as early as next week so there are plenty of distractions to go along with this 0-4 team. Expect New England to play very well as they are coming off a poor outing. They did beat Buffalo 16-10 but they were outgained drastically by the Bills and Tom Brady had his worst QB rating in 13 years in that game. The Redskin defense had allowed 30 or more points in every game until the Giants scored 24 last week. The Patriots coming off a poor offensive showing should have a field day against this defense on Sunday. They shouldn’t have to score much to get this cover either. We don’t anticipate Washington doing much of anything offensively so New England scoring 24 or more will probably get this done. Lay it with the Patriots. Our MATH MODEL projects a Patriot 35-10 win giving us an easy cover. |
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10-05-19 | Washington v. Stanford +15.5 | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 13 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Stanford Cardinal (+) over Washington Huskies, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #352 |
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10-05-19 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -7 | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #376 |
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10-05-19 | Western Kentucky -3 v. Old Dominion | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) over Old Dominion Monarchs, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #383 |
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10-05-19 | TCU v. Iowa State -3 | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa State Cyclones (-) over TCU Horned Frogs, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #374 |
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10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #356 |
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09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos -2.5 | 26-24 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
ASA 8* PLAY ON Denver -2.5 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This is obviously an absolute must win for the Broncos. They are 0-3 o the season but they are definitely better than that record. They have outgained their opponents on the year by an average of 34 YPG and they are +12 first downs on the year. The Jags are 1-2 on the season, they are getting outgained by 31 YPG. Their only win over Tennessee they were -48 total yards, -9 first downs and -9:00 time of possession. Jacksonville QB Gardner Minshew has gotten a lot of publicity since taking over at QB but the fact is he’s still a rookie playing in a very tough venue in Denver. Not only that, he’s facing one of the top defensive minds in the game in Denver head coach Vic Fangio. We expect Minshew to struggle in this game. In his only other road start this season, Minshew led the Jaguars to just 12 points @ Houston. It’s supposed to be very windy in Denver on Sunday so this one could come down to the running game which definitely favors the Broncos. The Jaguars average just 90 YPG and they don’t run it very often (19 carries per game). Their offensive line ranks 28th in the NFL in run blocking (per Football Outsiders). Denver, on the other hand, carries the ball 28 times per game and their offensive line ranks 9th in the NFL in run blocking. They have 2 very solid backs with Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman who returns from injury in this one. Denver has been very successful at home early in the season with a 14-2 SU record their last 16 September games. We like Denver to win by more than a FG here. |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks -5 v. Cardinals | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
ASA 8* PLAY ON Seattle -5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET We love this spot for the Seahawks. First they are coming off a loss vs New Orleans last week in a game they outgained the Saints by 250 yards! QB Russell Wilson has been nearly unbeatable the game following a SU loss as a favorite going 19-2 SU and 14-5-2 ATS. Arizona comes in with an 0-2-1 record and if it weren’t for a remarkable late game surge to tie Detroit, they’d be 0-3. They’ve already been outgained in every game by a total of 345 yards on the season. Last week the Arizona defense was shredded for 38 points by Carolina back up QB Allen (4 TD’s) and now they face Russell Wilson who had over 400 yards passing vs the Saints last Sunday. We look for Seattle to have a big day on offense. We feel we have a fairly large advantage on both sides of the ball along with the situation advantage. On top of that, Seattle has a HUGE coaching edge here. With this number under a TD we’ll take Seattle. |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State -16.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 51 h 9 m | Show |
NOTE: If you do not have access to the First Half Line then make a Full Game Wager on this one. Our recommendation is for a First Half Wager per the analysis here: ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) on FIRST HALF LINE over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #195 |
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09-28-19 | SMU v. South Florida +8 | 48-21 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 6 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* South Florida Bulls (+) over SMU Mustangs, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #122 |
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09-28-19 | Iowa State v. Baylor +3 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Baylor Bears (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #130 |
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09-28-19 | BYU -2.5 v. Toledo | 21-28 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 10 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* BYU Cougars (-) over Toledo Rcokets, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #131 |
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09-27-19 | Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke Blue Devils (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #105 |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL TOP PLAY ON Philadelphia +4.5 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET This is simply a huge game for the Eagles. They are currently 1-2 on the season and can’t afford to drop to 1-3 and still feel they have a decent shot at the playoffs with Dallas currently rolling through the NFC East. Their 2 losses came by 4 points @ Atlanta and 3-points vs Detroit so they are fairly close to being 2-1 or even 3-0. On their final possession last week they had the ball in Detroit territory but were unable to get into FG position for the tie. At Atlanta they had the ball inside the Falcon 20-yard line in their final possession but came up short on 4th down. They’ve definitely had their chances. If tonight’s game goes as we expect, it will be another very close game and we’re getting a full +4 to +4.5 points which would have covered or at worst pushed Philly’s first 2 losses. Green Bay is 3-0 but they have been outgained in every game and they are getting outgained by an average of 42 YPG. They have been the beneficiary of a +6 turnover ratio after just 3 games (1st in the NFL). While their defense is vastly improved it’s not like we are talking about a top 5 defense right now. As good as they’ve been, they are still ranked only 13th in total defense. It’s the turnovers they’ve created that are the difference so far this year and we feel that simply doesn’t continue (+2 turnovers per game). The offensive numbers have been poor. They are 3-0 despite scoring only 19 PPG (23rd in the NFL). They are ranked 28th in total offense and 28th in yards per play. The most concerning offensive stat in our opinion is their 3rd down conversion rate is just 25% ahead of only Miami & NY Jets. That ends offensive possessions early and is obviously a drive killer. Philly, on the other hand, is at 56% rate on 3rd down which 2nd in the NFL only behind Dallas. Right now we feel the Eagles are undervalued and Green Bay is overvalued right now. Take the points with Philadelphia. |
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09-22-19 | Broncos +8.5 v. Packers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Denver +8.5 over Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
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09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis (pick-em) over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line opened with Indy -3 which is where we thought it should be. The public remains enamored with Atlanta as they get bet hard on a regular basis. That has dropped this line down to -1 and now we’ll jump on the Colts. We were on Atlanta last week as a home dog which was an entirely different situation at home off a loss @ Minnesota. The Falcons picked up that home win over the Eagles and now they go on the road vs an AFC team playing their home opener. While bettors still love the Falcons, the fact it since their Super Bowl appearance in 2016, the Bird have a SU record of just 18-16. Indy comes in 1-1 having taken a very good Charger team to OT in the opener (loss) and then upsetting Tennessee on the road last Sunday. While this team lost Andrew Luck at QB, his replacement Jacoby Brissett is more than capable especially with a very good running game and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Brissett is completing 69% of his passes with 5 TD’s and just 1 interception on the season. That Indy running game is averaging 185 YPG (2nd in the NFL) and they are facing a Falcon defense that was gashed for 172 yards in their only road game @ Minnesota. The knew they could control the game on the ground (Minny won 28-12) so much so that they only attempted 10 passes the entire game. The Falcons are 1-8 ATS their last 9 as road underdogs and with the Colts now just having to win at home, we’ll grab them. |
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09-22-19 | Bengals +7 v. Bills | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
ASA 8* NFL PLAY ON Cincinnati +7 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We were on Cincy last week and they were embarrassed at home losing 41-17 vs the Niners. We expect them to bounce back and play very well this weekend as NFL teams that get beat by 20+ points and are underdogs the following week cover 56% of the time long term. Let’s not forget that the Bengals played very well in their season opener taking Seattle to the wire on the road before losing 21-20. The outgained the Seahawks by 197 yards in that game! Now sitting at 0-2, the Bengals know they cannot afford another loss so expect an all out effort here. Buffalo is solid but now they’ve become overvalued in our opinion. We were on the Bills in week one as a +2.5 dog @ the Jets and they won 17-16. Last week they played the hapless Giants winning 28-14 but they were only +18 in total yardage in that game. Now after facing an underdog role vs the Jets, basically a pick-em spot (-1 at some spots) vs the Giants, they are now laying nearly a full TD vs the Bengals? That’s an overreaction. On top of that, Buffalo hosts AFC East rival New England next so they could be peaking ahead here. Bills QB Josh Allen is still very inexperienced and not overly consistent. Tough to lay nearly a TD with a QB that has those traits. While Bengal QB Dalton is no superstar, he is a veteran and seems to be adapting well to new head coach Zac Taylor’s offensive system very well with 729 yards and 4 TD’s in his 2 games. Historically, Buffalo has been a down franchise for years. They are simply not used to winning streaks. In fact, the last 16 times the Bills have had a chance at a 3-game winning streak, they are just 3-13 SU in those games. The look ahead line on this game before last weekend’s games was Buffalo -3.5 and a few -4. We won’t overreact to what happened last week and we take the value with Cincinnati here. The Bengals keep this close and have a shot to pull the upset. |
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09-21-19 | Utah State -4 v. San Diego State | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 48 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Utah State Aggies (-) over San Diego State Aztecs, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #399 |
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over BYU Cougars, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #349 |
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09-21-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 7* ON Run Line: New York Yankees (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET |
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09-20-19 | Utah -3.5 v. USC | 23-30 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 27 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Utah Utes (-) over USC Trojans, Friday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #305 |
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09-17-19 | Phillies v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Philadelphia Phillies, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +2 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Atlanta +2 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET Hard to say teams are in must win mode in the 2nd week of the season, however we can put the Falcons in that category. After losing @ Minnesota to start the season (not surprising) they host the Eagles on Sunday night. After this game the Falcons are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games so this game becomes extremely important. In their loss in Minneapolis, the Birds are +9 first downs & +75 yards. However, they turned the ball over 3 times and had a punt blocked as well. All four of those miscues led to Minnesota TD’s which accounted to ALL 28 of their points. Here they face a Philadelphia team that got down 17-0 at home – 20-7 at half – vs a Washington team that was a 10 point dog in the game. They came back to win 32-27 but weren’t overly impressive in their opener. The Philly defense allowed Case Keenum and the Skins to throw for 380 yards and 3 TD’s. Now they face a much more potent Atlanta passing game, especially at home where QB Matt Ryan had a 118 passer rating last year compared to 99 on the road. These two met in last year’s season opener in Philadelphia. The Eagles scored a late TD with just over 2:00 minutes remaining to pull off the 18-12 come from behind win despite getting outgained by the Falcons. Matt Ryan is 10-1 ATS in home openers and he gets another win here. Take the points with Atlanta. |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET the Steelers are coming off an embarrassing performance on Sunday night @ New England and we have a feeling they bounce back and play very well on Sunday in their home opener. Roethlisberger has been unbeatable (8-0 ATS) when coming off a loss of 20 or more points in his career. We suspect he’ll have a big day vs a Seattle defense that allowed Bengal QB Andy Dalton to shred them for a career high 418 yards last Sunday. Seattle picked up the win in that game 21-20 but they were lucky to do so getting outgained by nearly 200 yards. In the game the Bengals averaged 6.1 yards per play to just 4.8 for Seattle. The offensive line looked shaky at best paving the way for only 72 rushing yards while Russell Wilson was only able to pass for 160 yards. Looks like the Steeler defense will be a reprieve this week after facing Tom Brady and the precise New England offense last week. We’ll give the Pittsburgh defense a break last week as they did look terrible but much of that we feel was the New England offense. This is still a defense that finished 6th in total defense and YPP defense last year. They’ll look much better this week and have a chip on their shoulder based on last week’s poor performance. Seattle’s ATS numbers as an underdog are solid, however they have been terrible in their road openers going 2-12 SU / 1-12-1 ATS since 2005. On the other side, when the Steelers are coming off a loss and favored by 3 or more points, they are 18-5 ATS since 2010. This one sets up nicely for Pittsburgh and we’ll lay the points. |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma -22.5 v. UCLA | Top | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over UCLA Bruins, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #191 |
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09-14-19 | Air Force +4 v. Colorado | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 44 h 13 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Air Force Falcons (+) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET: Game #125 |
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09-12-19 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -138 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Oakland A's, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 78 h 9 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +7.5 over New Orleans, Monday at 7:10 PM ET Houston is too good to be getting a full TD in this game. We’re talking about a playoff team from a year ago (11-5 record) that upgraded their weak spot (offensive line) by adding LT Laremy Tunsil, one of the best in the game. They are facing a New Orleans team that might be a bit overhyped entering the season. The Saints are also a notoriously slow starting team going 0-10 ATS and 1-9 SU in their first 2 games of the season (over the last 5 years). They are also 0-5 ATS since 2015 as home favorites in September. Last year if you remember, in the opener the Saints were favored by 10 at home vs a bad Tampa team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. The Bucs won the game 48-40. In their 2nd game, also at home, they barely held on to beat Cleveland by 3 points. Now we have one of the better teams in the AFC getting a full TD? We’ll take that. Houston has a solid defense and with Deshaun Watson at QB, they can definitely score enough points to keep up with the Saints if needed. It’s also been a very solid investment to take Monday Night underdogs during the first week of the season as they are 25-15 ATS since the late 80’s. We think Houston gives the Saints all they can handle on Monday and an outright win wouldn’t be a surprise. Houston and the points here. |
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09-09-19 | Brewers -1.5 v. Marlins | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 7:10 PM ET |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -120 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh +6 over New England, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET The Pats are notorious for their slow starts as they tend extend their preseason into the first few games of the regular season so to speak. Head coach Belichick adjusts and tweaks early in the season until he finds the line ups he feels are most effective. Last year the Patriots lost to Jacksonville & Detroit early in the season, two teams that ended the year with losing records. A year earlier New England lost to both Carolina & KC, both games at home, early in the season. They were favored in all of those games and were -7 or more in 3 of the 4. Brady may take some time to adjust without top target Gronkowski in the line up and their offensive line could be a problem this year. Starting LT Trent Brown left in the off-season and he is being replaced Isaiah Wynn who hasn’t played a snap yet in the NFL. They are also starting a guard who is a career back up. Pats will be good but it may take some time this year. We are much higher on Pittsburgh than many. We feel this will be an addition by subtraction situation with RB Bell & WR Brown, two problems in the locker room, now gone. We’re hearing the chemistry for the Steelers is MUCH better right now than it was at any point last year. Roethlisberger is back and he has plenty of weapons offensively. We have the Steeler defense pegged as one of the best in the NFL this year (finished 6th in the NFL last year in YPG & YPP allowed). Roethlisberger has been historically very good as an underdog with a 34-18-3 ATS lifetime record. Even more impressive he has a winning outright record 30-25 SU in those games as an underdog! We realize that New England has done very well vs Pittsburgh, however we think this is a different circumstance. Take Pitt + the points. |
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09-08-19 | Colts +7 v. Chargers | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET We think the betting market has overreacted to the loss of Andrew Luck for the Colts. This line was at Chargers -3 and now has jumped to -6.5 and some at -7. That’s move is too much in our opinion. While Andrew Luck was very important to this team, the Colts are solid across the board. They were in the top 10 in many defensive categories last year including scoring, total yards, yards per play, and yards per rush. On offense Jacoby Brissett is a more than capable back up and we actually consider him a middle of the pack starter in the NFL. He’s not great, but he’s not bad either. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line that is definitely one of the best in the NFL. They were ranked the 4th best rush blocking unit and 2nd best at pass blocking in the entire NFL last year by Football Outsiders. All 5 starters are back up front so they will be very good again. The LA Chargers are without their top RB Melvin Gordon and their home field advantage is very minimal at their make shift soccer stadium in LA which holds 27,000. In fact, for many of their home games there are just as many opposing fans as Charger fans. They were just 2-6 at home ATS last year. Our word is the Colt players really like Brissett. The locker room is very tight and we feel they will play on Sunday to show everyone this team was and is more than just Andrew Luck. Expect an inspired effort from a very solid Colts team as they give the Chargers all they can handle on Sunday. Take the points. |
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09-08-19 | Bills +3 v. Jets | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line says that the Bills & Jets are rated basically the same and on a neutral field we’d have a pick-em game. We disagree. We have Buffalo rated as the stronger team and we’ll take the points here. We’re getting a strong defensive divisional underdog which always makes us sit up and take notice. Buffalo’s defense was outstanding last year. They finished 2nd in the NFL in total defense behind Baltimore only. They also finished 3rd in YPP defense and #1 in the NFL in pass defense. The Bills split with the Jets last year but a closer look reveals they dominated despite the 1-1 record. Buffalo won at NY 41-10 as an underdog last year and lost a tight game at home 27-23. In those two games combined, the Bills had 820 total yards to just 447 for the Jets. Their defense held NY to 3.6 & 4.7 yards per play. Expect them to stifle the Jets offense again on Sunday. Many discount the preseason but we do make note that Buffalo was 4-0 and looked very good. They have very solid continuity with the entire coaching staff back this year. The Jets, on the other hand, have a new head coach Adam Gase and new coordinators on both sides of the ball. While we expect New York to be improved, there will be a transition period with Gase in charge. There are a few technical points that back the Bills here as well. First, the underdog has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 meetings OUTRIGHT. Second, NFL division underdogs in week 1 of the season are a money making 17-4 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Our numbers have Buffalo’s chance of winning outright at more than 50%. We definitely have to take the points with the Bills. |
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09-07-19 | BYU v. Tennessee -3 | 29-26 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 45 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Tennessee Volunteers (-) over Brigham Young Cougars, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #358 |
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -4 v. Colorado | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #331 |
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09-07-19 | Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #314 |
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09-06-19 | Marshall +12.5 v. Boise State | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 22 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Marshall Thundering Herd (+) over Boise State Broncos, Friday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #303 |
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09-05-19 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Seattle Mariners, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma -22.5 | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over Houston Cougars, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #216 |
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08-31-19 | Virginia -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (-) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #203 |
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08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State -4.5 | 36-31 | Loss | -103 | 67 h 22 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Florida State Seminoles (-) over Boise State Broncos, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #192 |
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08-30-19 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -132 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Washington Nationals (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET |
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08-30-19 | Rice v. Army -21.5 | 7-14 | Loss | -103 | 56 h 11 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Army Black Knights (-) over Rice Owls, Friday at 6 PM ET: Game #146 |
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08-26-19 | Reds -1.5 v. Marlins | 6-3 | Win | 105 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 7:10 PM ET |
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08-25-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET |
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08-24-19 | Arizona v. Hawaii +11 | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 32 h 23 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Hawaii Warriors (+) over Arizona Wildcats, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #294 |
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08-24-19 | Royals v. Indians -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 7* ON Run Line: Cleveland Indians (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET |
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08-24-19 | Texans v. Cowboys | Top | 0-34 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
#271 ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston Texans (pick-em) over Dallas Cowboys, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET We have been thoroughly unimpressed with Dallas this pre-season. They are without 2 of their top offensive weapons (RB Elliot and WR Cooper) and they have scored just 23 total points in 2 games this preseason. The Boys were beaten by San Francisco in their opener and then struggled to top the LA Rams last week, a team that is playing NONE of their key players this preseason. Dallas was outgained in both of those games. While the 3rd preseason game is normally a dress rehearsal so to speak for the regular season, the Cowboys will be without 5 players who were All Pros last season. Head coach Jason Garrett also showed last year that he doesn’t necessarily view this game as one to get his starters ready for the regular season as he sat many of his key players in their 27-3 loss to Arizona in week 3 of the preseason. Garrett has also proven he has very little interest in the preseason with a 13-22 lifetime record including just 6-16 since 2014. Unlike Dallas, we have been impressed with Houston. Their offense is clicking scoring 56 points in their 2 games topping 400 yards in both. Dallas has yet to get to 300 yards in either of their 2 games. It looks like Houston will take this game much more seriously and we expect their regulars to get solid time in this game. That includes QB Deshaun Watson who has only thrown 7 passes this preseason. Head coach Bill O’Brien wants to get him ready for the opener in a few weeks. The Texans also have a strong rotation behind Watson as Joe Webb has already thrown for almost 500 yards in the first 2 preseason games. Unlike Garrett, Houston head man O’Brien seems to put more emphasis on the preseason as he has a 13-8 record. The Texans are viewed as the little guy in this state behind the Cowboys giving their players and coaches a little extra motivation even if it is just the preseason. The Texans will want to win this game. We’ll side with Houston on Saturday night. |
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08-23-19 | Bills v. Lions +1.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 10 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFLX PLAY ON Detroit +1.5 over Buffalo, Friday at 8 PM ET Lots of people jumping on 2-0 Buffalo over 0-2 Detroit here. In fact, as of this writing well over 70% of the wagers have come in on Buffalo. We’ll go contrarian here and take Detroit to win their first pre-season game. The Lions are 0-2 but faced 2 of the better teams in the NFL in New England and Houston. Their defense has allowed 61 points in those 2 games, however both of their opponents were top 12 in scoring offense last year. Now they face a Buffalo offense that averaged only 16.8 PPG last year ranking them 30th in the NFL. After struggling the first 2 games we look for Detroit’s defense to play much better at home on Friday. Offensively the Lions looked MUCH better last week. They threw up a stinker in week 1 scoring only 3 points vs the Patriots. Last week @ Houston, the Lions put up 23 points and averaged 6.4 yards per play which was better than the 5.7 YPP put up by the Texans. Back up QB David Fales played very well going 12 of 19 for 226 yards and 2 TD’s. This week we expect starting QB Matthew Stafford to get his first action of the pre-season. While head coach Matt Patricia has not stated that Stafford will play, we can take a look at last year when Patricia had him playing into the 3rd quarter in Detroit’s pre-season week 3 win over Tampa Bay. While most NFL head coaches treat this as a trial run for the regular season, Patricia goes even further as the week leading up to this game is laid out exactly as it would be for a regular season games. That includes film study of upcoming opponent. Buffalo is 2-0 but they have yet to face a starting QB as Indy was without Luck and last week Carolina was without Cam Newton. The Bills are on the road for the 2nd straight week and we have a feeling this has now become a very big game for Patricia and the Lions after starting 0-2. This line opened with Detroit -2.5 which is where our projected line was as well but it now has moved to +1 because most are on Buffalo as we stated above. We like the value and the situation here. Take Detroit. |
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08-21-19 | Phillies +1.5 v. Red Sox | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (+1.5 runs) over Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET |
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08-19-19 | Padres v. Reds -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5 runs) over San Diego Padres, Monday at 7:10 PM ET |
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08-18-19 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET |
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08-15-19 | Packers v. Ravens -4 | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
ASA 8* NFLX PLAY ON Baltimore -4 over Green Bay, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET These two are both 1-0 in the pre-season but they reached that result in drastically different ways. Baltimore absolutely dominated Jacksonville shutting out the Jags 29-0. The Raven defense, who led the league in total defense last year, held the Jags offense to just 112 total yards on 2.1 yards per play. Baltimore’s defense is deep and played well throughout as Jacksonville crossed midfield just ONCE the entire game and that was just barely making it to the Raven’s 49-yard line. Offensive QB Lamar Jackson looked very comfortable leading the Ravens to 10 points in 3 possessions. Look for Jackson and the starters to play into the 2nd quarter this week. Green Bay also picked up a win last week vs Houston. However, it was far from dominating as the Packers won 28-26 but were outgained by the Texans 412 to 237. Green Bay benefitted from 4 Houston turnovers including a muffed punt for a TD. The Pack scored 4 TD’s however 2 of those came on a fumble recovery as noted above and another came on a 3-yard drive after a turnover. Aaron Rodgers will make his preseason debut here but only expect a few series. He’s also running a brand new offense under head coach Matt LaFleur so don’t expect everything to go smoothly as he learns the system. Baltimore is the deeper team, especially on defense, and we know they want to win this game. Head coach John Harbaugh has proven the preseason is important to him as the Ravens have won 14 straight preseason games under Harbaugh! 8 of those 14 wins have come by at least 9 points. They get another here. Lay the points with the host in this one. |
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08-09-19 | Vikings v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 34-25 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
ASA play on: New Orleans Saints (-2.5) over Minnesota Vikings, Friday 8PM ET – The handle on this game is certainly backing the Vikings as more tickets and money have flowed in on Minnesota. But we are contrarian here and will side with the home team Saints. In our opinion the biggest factor that favors the Saints is the quarterback rotation as former Vike Teddy Bridgewater will play a large portion of this game and then be followed by Taysom Hill. Bridgewater is a former starter and pro bowl players and should have plenty of success against the Vikings #2’s. Hill has some great preseason statistics and we won’t see a drastic drop-off when he enters the game. The same can’t be said for the Vikings who lack QB depth at this time and will give Sean Mannion, Kyle Sloter and Jake Browning the opportunity to win the back up job. The Viking struggled with their O-line a year ago and have made some changes up front which will take time to mesh as a unit. Minnesota was 18th in offensive efficiency a year ago and won’t be ready until the opener. The same can’t be said about the Saints offense that is deep and coming off a season where they ranked 4th overall in OEFF. Overall the Vikings were a better defensive unit than the Saints a year ago, but the separation isn’t drastic as Minnesota ranked 4th in DEFF, the Saints were 11th. Minnesota has some solid exhibition records under Zimmer but the offensive edge for the Saints later in this game is too much to overlook. Fade the public and bet New Orleans. |
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08-03-19 | White Sox v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -128 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET |
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08-02-19 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Texas Rangers (-1.5 runs) over Detroit Tigers, Friday at 8:05 PM ET |
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08-01-19 | Astros -1.5 v. Indians | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Cleveland Indians, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET |
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07-28-19 | Yankees +1.5 v. Red Sox | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: New York Yankees (+1.5 runs) over New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET |
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07-27-19 | Indians -1.5 v. Royals | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cleveland Indians (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET |
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07-26-19 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Nationals | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over Washington Nationals, Friday at 7:05 PM ET |
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07-24-19 | Royals v. Braves -1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET |
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07-22-19 | Indians -1.5 v. Blue Jays | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cleveland Indians (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 7:07 PM ET |
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07-13-19 | Dodgers v. Red Sox -1.5 | 11-2 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Boston Red Sox (-1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET |
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07-03-19 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Washington (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET |
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06-27-19 | Nationals -1.5 v. Marlins | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Washington (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET |
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06-25-19 | Pirates v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET |
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06-18-19 | Astros -1.5 v. Reds | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Golden State -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET Friday, Game 4 – There are some key stats that support this wager but in laymen terms it boils down to a great team off a home loss as a favorite. The Warriors were 24-7 SU off a loss this season, 12-2 SU at home off a loss and the last six wins in a row at home off a beat are by an average of 15PPG. More specifically, when Golden State is off a home loss, they are 5-1 SU with wins by 7, 17, 14, 28 and 6 points respectively. The Warriors are 36-7 SU at home the past 3+ years in the playoffs with an average differential of +11.9PPG and only once in that time have, they lost back to back home games. Toronto shot the shit out of it in Game 3 with an effective field goal percentage of 62.8% which is basically unheard of. That is clearly abnormal too as the Warriors EFG % defense was 6th best in the NBA this season at 51%. Granted the Warriors 3-point defense was atrocious in Game 3 and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Klay Thompson and KD. Thompson will be back tonight which should make a difference in how the Warriors defend the Raptors beyond the arc tonight. The Raptors literally had everything go right in Game 3 and we just don’t see that happening in Oakland with the Warriors in a do-or-die situation. As we mentioned, defending the 3-point line will be key and we don’t see Danny Green and Kyle Lowry going 11 for 19 from downtown tonight. Steph Curry is certainly capable of a repeat performance of Game 3, but we must bet the rest of the Warriors play much better than they did in G3. The betting markets are backing Toronto tonight, yet the line is not fluctuating the way the money is flowing. That’s a clear sign to bet on Golden State tonight. |
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06-05-19 | Raptors +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
ASA play on: Toronto Raptors +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET Wednesday – The number on this game is extremely short and typically we wouldn’t like going against the Warriors at home with this low of a line, but we’ll make an exception here. This isn’t the same Warriors team as injuries has taken its toll and there are just too many to overcome or justify betting them here. In Game 2 the Warriors got a HUGE boost with Boogie back on the floor as the logged 27 minutes, grabbed 10 rebounds and added 6 big assists and scored 11-points. But now the Raptors will have a plan in place to counter his presence and take advantage of a hobbled Klay Thompson if he’s able to suit up. The other big loss that’s not being talked about is Kevon Looney who has been a big energy guy and defensive stopper for Golden State. Even with Thompson scoring 25 in the last game before being hurt and shooting 46.3% as a team the Warriors managed just a 5-point road win in Game 2. Toronto had a horrendous shooting night in Game 2 (37.2%) so even if they have a less than stellar performance tonight, they can still cover this number. Toronto already has 4 playoff road wins this post season and that includes wins in Philadelphia and Milwaukee which are as tough a venue as you find. During the regular season this Raptors team had a +4.6 point road differential which was 3rd best in the league. Golden State wasn’t their usual dominate selves at home this year with the 11th best home differential of +6.6PPG (down from +7.6PPG last year, +15.9PPG the year before). The Raptors lost just 9 road games by more than 5-points this season which correlates to their 3rd rated offensive efficiency rating on the road and 4th best DEFF rankings. In closing, even if Klay can play tonight, just how effective can he be on one leg? That’s asking too much of Steph Curry and the rest of the team to overcome. This will be close throughout so we grab the points! |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
ASA play on: Golden State +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8M ET – We are betting the more experienced, defending Champions, off a loss here. Toronto again got a huge game from Siakam in Game 1 but don’t count on a repeat performance here as he consistently hasn’t done that all season long. Leonard was again fantastic for the Raptors but he clearly was laboring throughout the game. The high or energy from the Game 1 win won’t be as pronounced for Toronto in Game 2 as they have a win under their belt. The Raptors are 41-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State is 33-17 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. The probability numbers we’ve run on this game tell us overwhelmingly to bet the underdog off a loss and the heavy factor against the Raptors is winning 6 straight games against the 2 other best teams in the NBA. Golden State was 23-7 SU off a loss this season, 72-19 SU or 79% since 2015. This Warriors team is a remarkable 44-11 SU their last 55 playoff games and we’re betting they bounce back here with a win in the North. |
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05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
ASA play on: Golden State +1.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET – Thursday Game 1 – The most recent memory in bettors minds right now is the Raptors beating the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals and they have bet accordingly. Give credit to the Raptors in that series win and their defense which was the difference. The Bucks literally didn’t make any adjustments in the last four games and tried to stay with their offensive philosophy which allowed the Raptors to essentially play zone defense. That won’t be a luxury against this Warriors team as they have way too many shooters to space the floor. Toronto could play off several Bucks in the last series but can’t here. The Warriors have had extra rest coming into this game and really didn’t miss a beat when Durant went down with his calf injury. In fact, they adapted and morphed into the team they were without him. Draymond Green has been a beast with Durant sidelined and provides another match up nightmare for Toronto. The Raptors were 40-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State was 33-16 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. Not to mention the veteran team and defending champion is an underdog. Before we go, we want to leave you with this. Is it more impressive that Kawhi Leonard was able to drag this team and roster to the Finals than the team LeBron took to the Finals with Love and Irving? Yeah, Leonard has been outstanding but even he can’t carry this team past the Champs. Play on Golden State in Game 1. |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Milwaukee Bucks +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Saturday, Game 6 – The Raptors have had role players step up in big moments this series, but now that the spotlight and expectations are clearly high in this elimination game, we don’t expect the same production. Kawhi Leonard has been ridiculous in this series and I would argue has done more with less than LeBron and the Cavaliers a few years ago when they won their Ship. There is a reason the Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has been mentioned as a potential coach of the year and he’ll adjust here. If Giannis is on the floor then Bledsoe can’t be. The Bucks need to surround Giannis with shooters so the Raptors can’t collapse on him. If both Bledsoe and Giannis are on the floor, then Giannis needs to move to the baseline where he can roam behind the D. The Bucks are 10-4 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +9.8PPG. The Bucks are 62-21 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-17 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Bucks road differential of +5.6PPG was second best in the NBA this season behind only the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee had the 4th best road offensive efficiency at 1.123PPG and defensive efficiency allowing just 1.068PPP which was best in the league. We won’t ignore the Bucks 22-3 SU record off a loss, 10-2 SU on the road. The clincher for us though with this wager is value. The Bucks were favored by 3-points in the last game on this floor and are now a dog of 2 or more points. That is an over-reaction by the betting public and it’s always best to bet value over “feelings”. This series gets extended to a game 7. |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -7 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -7 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Thursday, Game 5 – The Raptors sent a message in the last two games to remind everyone they had the 2nd best record in the NBA this season for a reason. But now that the venue changes and the teams head back to Wisconsin, we can expect Milwaukee to get a resounding win on their home court. Milwaukee had the second-best home record in the NBA during the regular season with a 33-8 SU record and an average differential of plus +12.1PPG. The Bucks are 10-3 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +11.1PPG which balloons to +14.7PPG at home. The Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% and shoot 35% from beyond the arc and will find their groove again back at the Fiserv Forum. In Game 4 of this series the Raptors got HUGE production out of their bench and role players but that certainly won’t carry over on the road. Clearly the Raptors rely heavily on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue, along with a nagging knee/quad is becoming a huge factor for the Super Star as the playoffs wear on. The Bucks are 62-20 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-16 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Nobody said this series was going to be an easy one for the Bucks and winning in Toronto is certainly a tough task, but back at home the Bucks get a much-needed win by a double-digit margin. |
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05-21-19 | Bucks -3 v. Raptors | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Milwaukee -3 over Toronto, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET We’ve clearly lost value on this game with the Bucks going from an underdog in Game 3 to a favorite in tonight’s game. The Bucks starters were HORRENDOUS in Game 3, yet still could have won in double over-time. How bad were Milwaukee’s starters you ask? Middleton, Bledsoe, Antetokounmpo and Mirotic were a combined 14 of 59 from the field or 24% from the field. Those four also combined to make just 3 of 22 3-pointers. The Raptors benefitted from a non-call on a Kawhi Leonard double-dribble that led to an uncontested dunk at a critical juncture. Giannis was also called for his 6th foul on a questionable call which forced the Bucks superstar to the bench. Milwaukee has a near perfect record this season when coming off a loss with a 22-1 SU record. That’s not a coincidence either as a good coaching staff clearly knows how to adjust from one game to the next. And those wins have come by an average differential +15.4PPG. The Bucks had the 4th best road offensive efficiency rating on the road this season of 1.123PPP and a defensive efficiency of 1.068PPP which was 1st. Milwaukee’s +5.6 average point differential away from home was second best in the NBA this season. The Bucks bounce back in a big way with a double-digit win! |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +3 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +3 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 4 Monday – You know us, we are betting numbers and value, not teams. The play here is Portland at home. Teams down 0-3 in the past have not done well historically but the oddsmakers have factored that in and the over-adjustment is too great to pass up. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-12 SU record, 14-5 their last nineteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. In Game 3 the Blazers made just 40% of their field goal attempts, 31.4% from beyond the arc. Portland has the 8th best overall and 3-point shooting percentage at home this season.The Warriors are 3rd in overall shooting percentage defense but 13th in defending the 3-point line. Damian Lillard has had a tough series, but we expect him to bounce back here after a dismal -23 differential in the last game. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. Portland was a home underdog just five times this season and they won four of those games outright. The movement of the line has us on Portland in this game. |
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05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Friday, Game 2 – The results of Game 1 and the statistics therein have us betting the Bucks again in Game 2. Milwaukee is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% but in Game 1, on their home court, the Bucks managed just 39.8% as a team. From beyond the 3-point line they shot just 25% as a team which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 35%. We predict a return to norm in Game 2 and expect the Bucks to have a much better shooting night. As we said in our analysis of Game 1, the Raptors rely too much on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue became apparent late in the game. If history holds true, Kyle Lowry won’t have the night he did in Game 1 as he hit 10 of 15 FG attempts which is abnormal by his previous standards. Lowry was dreadful in three outings against the Bucks in the regular season as he averaged 6.3 points on 7-of-30 shooting from the field (1-of-20 from three) to go along with 8.3 assists and 5 rebounds. The fact that Lowry failed to score a single point on 11 tries from the field in the 122 possessions he went up against Bledsoe in all three losses the Raptors had against the Bucks this year. Milwaukee will make the adjustment here and have Bledsoe on Lowry which will again put more pressure on Leonard. The Bucks have several players that can step up and fill the void if one of the stars isn’t hitting as was the case in Game 1 with Brook Lopez. The Bucks are 61-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 36-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 69 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee has now beaten this Raptors four of five this season and rolls to a Game 2 win by double-digits. |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +7 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +7 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 2 Thursday – After breaking down Game 1 of this series we like the Blazers chances to cover the spread in Game 2. First off, Terry Stotts is a good coach and will adjust in guarding Steph Curry in the pick-n-roll where he had the most success in the opener. Secondly, the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver and fatigue was clearly a factor. Now they have had a little more rest and are off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so expect a much better effort here. The Warriors did lose two home games in the opening round to the Clippers and their average home differential is just +4.5PPG in the post-season. In the opener the Warriors were up only 6-points going into the fourth quarter before the Blazers collapse. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-10 SU record, 14-3 their last seventeen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). So, expect a return to the more ‘normal’ statistics here which will lead to a Blazers cover. Ask yourself this, with Golden State off a commanding win in the opener by 22-points, why did this line open higher, with the money and tickets coming in on the Warriors, yet the line went down? Portland had the 8th best road differential in the league this year at 0PPG so they are more than capable of keeping this game close throughout. |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Wednesday, Game 1 - The Bucks are 60-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 35-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 68 wins have come by double-digits. Eric Bledsoe is averaging 16PPG in the playoffs on 47.8% shooting, Khris Middleton had a few rough shooting nights in the first two rounds but did average 16PPG in the series against the Celtics. Pat Connaughton and George Hill also provided some invaluable minutes off the bench for the Bucks in the first two rounds. Not to mention the Bucks get starter Malcolm Brogdon back for this series who makes them even deeper yet. Throw in the ‘bigs’ of Lopez, Mirotic and Ilyasova and you have a floor-spacing, 3-ball-makin bunch that are tough to defend. With the floor spaced it only make Giannis that much tougher to defend as he gets to the rim at will or drives and unselfishly kicks to open shooters. Game 7 of the Toronto/Philly series is a perfect example of why the Raptors won’t win this Eastern Conference Finals. You can’t rely solely on Kawhi Leonard to win a series. Leonard made a miraculous shot to win Game 7 against Philadelphia and put up 41 points in the process. It took Kawhi 39 shots to get to 41 and there were several opportunities for other players to take open shots, but they were reluctant to do so. Kyle Lowry is a notorious choker in the post-season, Pascal Siakam is an up-and-comer but still young and in an unfamiliar role. Marc Gasol is an adequate center but past his prime and not a rim protector. The rest of the supporting cast for the Raptors just isn’t good enough to provide Leonard with help to win this series or Game 1. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee beat this Raptors three of four this regular season and rolls a Game 1 win by double-digits. |
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05-12-19 | Blazers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: Portland Trailblazers +5.5 over @Denver Nuggets,330pm ET – We won’t ignore the fact that the Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but let’s also recognize that Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers, they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who shot over 46% during the regular season and made 36.1% of their 3-point attempts. Granted neither team is shooting it well in this series, but I trust Lillard and McCollum way more than I do the Nuggets shooters. Prior to the last two games of this series the previous eight games had an average differential of +5.25PPG and we expect this elimination game to go to the wire again. Grab the points and the underdog. |
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05-10-19 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Minnesota (-1.5 runs) over Detroit, Friday at 8:10 PM ET |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
ASA play on @Philadelphia 76ers +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET Thursday – We are playing on the ‘juvenile’ 76ers in this must win game at home tonight. It’s obvious the young 76ers still don’t full grasp the situation when Embiid is looking at cell phones on the bench, laughing in press conferences and easily distracted during games in the Playoffs. Ben Simmons isn’t much better, but when focused this team is clearly capable of beating anyone on any given night. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris who are all legitimate scorers in the NBA. Philly has won 75% of their games when coming off a loss and playing at home this season. The home team has won 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams with the average margin of victory by the home team in those seven wins being 18.4PPG. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Take the home dog as Philadelphia will extend this series. |
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05-07-19 | Blazers +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 98-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:30PM ET – This has been a great series and even though everyone has the Rockets or Warriors in the NBA Finals, one of these two teams certainly could represent the West. With the dust settled after the first four games of this series the total differential separating these two teams is just 2 total points. All four games have been tight, and the dog has covered three straight. Even when we go back to the regular season, we find those four games were decided by an average of just 5PPG. Denver has some fantastic home efficiency and overall statistics at home this season, but Portland has some great numbers too. The Blazers were 14th in road defensive efficiency and 7th in offensive efficiency. Portland was 7th in average point differential on the road at 0PPG. Denver has struggled with their shooting in the previous five games as they’ve hit just 42.7% of their field goal attempts. The Blazers are on a solid 4-1 ATS streak when coming off a straight up loss and will keep this game close throughout. Grab the points and the dog here! |
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05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -1.5 | 113-101 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
ASA play on: Boston Celtics -1.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET (Game 4) In Game 1 of this series the Celtics had a fantastic game plan to limit Giannis and force other Bucks to beat them. It worked flawlessly and the Celtics drubbed the Bucks big on their home court. Milwaukee then adjusted, bounced back and crushed the Celtics in Game 2. In Game 3 it was a 1-point game at halftime, but the Bucks controlled the tempo and game for much of the second half in a relatively easy win. The Bucks shot over 50% and got a surprise 21-points from George Hill off the bench. The Celtics shot just 43% as a team and gave up 52 points in the paint to the Bucks. Milwaukee enjoys some of the best road efficiency numbers in the NBA but again, as we’ve said in the past, they played a very soft schedule which influenced those statistics. Boston had an average differential of +6.9PPG at home while shooting 47% on their home court and allowing just 45%. Boston is 7-3 SU their last nine home games when coming off a loss and have covered 6 of the last eight clashes with the Bucks on this floor. The home team has won 70% or 7 of the last ten meetings and with the line where it is, we are essentially asking the Celtics to just win on their home court. Boston bounces back off a loss and gets a home win in Game 4. |
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05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -2 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 over Toronto Raptors, 3:30PM ET Sunday – We are going contrarian here and don’t expect Toronto to bounce back off a loss in the previous game. It’s obvious the Raptors don’t have enough talent surrounding Leonard and in today’s NBA one player can’t get it done. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris and it’s proving to be too much for Toronto to overcome. The Raptors will also be short Siakam here which makes Leonard’s job that much more difficult. The home team has won 7 of the last nine meetings between these two teams and all seven wins came by more than today’s spread. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Toronto was 18-8 SU off a loss this season but just 6-4 on the road in that situation. A clear indicator that the 76ers are still being under-valued by the oddsmakers is their 6-1 ATS run, 4-1 spread record their last five home games. Philly grabs a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a home win today! |
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05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 102 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ASA play on: Houston Rockets -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET – Everyone has jumped off the Rockets bandwagon after two losses to start this series but we’re not one of them. We bet Houston to win this series and even though they must win 4 of five against the Warriors to get it done they are still capable of doing so. Houston’s numbers on the season are just as good as Golden State in many key statistical categories. These two teams were both #1 and #2 in offensive efficiency and were #13 and #17 in defensive efficiency so they are very even teams. Houston beat a very good Utah team at home in the opening round by 32 and 20 and have an average point differential of +7.1PPG at home during the regular season. The Rockets were 31-10 SU at home during the regular season and most importantly, 13-4 SU at home when coming off a loss. Let’s not forget this Rockets team took Golden State to 7-games a year ago and are better overall this season. Golden State has some fantastic numbers on the road this season but in this scenario (up 2-0) we can see a letdown by the Champs. The money and line indicators clearly support a bet on Houston in this game. |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -2 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
ASA play on: Boston Celtics -2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET (Game 3) In Game 1 of this series the Celtics had a fantastic game plan to limit Giannis and force other Bucks to beat them. It worked flawlessly and the Celtics drubbed the Bucks big on their home court. Milwaukee then adjusted, bounced back and crushed the Celtics in Game 2. Kris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe had huge Game 2’s after struggling under the weight of the pressure in Game 1. Middleton made seven 3-pointers and totaled 28 points while Bledsoe chipped in with 21 points. Boston’s All-Star guard Kyrie Irving had a horrible shooting night in Game 2 with just nine points on 4 of 18 shooting. So, we are betting the numbers flip again in Game 3 on Boston’s home floor with the C’s off a BAD loss. The added pressure of being on the road in this opener will again get to the Bucks role players and the hot shooting they enjoyed in Game 2 won’t be the same here. Milwaukee enjoys some of the best road efficiency numbers in the NBA but again, as we’ve said in the past, they played a very soft schedule which influenced those statistics. Boston had an average differential of +6.9PPG at home while shooting 47% on their home court and allowing just 45%. Boston is 7-2 SU their last nine home games when coming off a loss and have covered 6 of the last seven clashes with the Bucks on this floor. Boston bounces back off a loss and gets a home win in Game 3. |
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05-01-19 | Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Philadelphia (-1.5 runs) over Detroit, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET |
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04-30-19 | Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
ASA play on: Houston Rockets +5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – Tuesday, Game 2 – I made a wager on the Rockets to win this series before it started and in hind-sight wish I would have waited until after Game 1 to get better odds. The Rockets are going to win this series and the landscape of the NBA will be altered because of the results (much like the Avengers Endgame alternate reality). In any regard, the Rockets took Golden State to a 7-game series a year ago and have a better chemistry this year. Golden State has not enjoyed as big of a home court advantage this season as they have in the past which we’ll explain here. Three years ago, the Warriors were 36-5 SU at home with a differential of +15.9PPG during the regular season. Those numbers dipped a year ago to 29-12, +7.6PPG. This season the Warriors were 30-11 SU at home in the regular season but their average point differential was just +6.6PPG. Houston was great on the road this season with the 5th best road differential of +2.4PPG and an offensive efficiency rating of 1.139 points per possession (2nd). Let’s not forget the Warriors lost two home games in the first round to the Clippers who were one of the 4 worst teams in the entire playoffs. Golden State was just 10-17 ATS at home against winning teams this season while the Rockets were 11-10 ATS on the road against winning teams, and many of those games were as a chalk. Houston was a solid 19-11 SU when coming off a loss this season, 15-2 SU their last seventeen in that situation. The Rockets shot just 41.9% in Game 1 which was uncharacteristically low for them so expect a better night from the field here. Despite the poor shooting in Game 1, multiple technical at the end of the game and questionable non-calls, the Rockets still only lost by 4-points. Easy call here with the Rockets and the points. |
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04-30-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 102-123 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Tuesday 8PM ET Game 2 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. Then in Game 1 of this series the Celtics put together a fantastic game plan to stop Giannis and force the other Bucks to beat them which simply didn’t happen. Boston took control in the 3rd quarter and never looked back in a 22-point win. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. Milwaukee is nearly perfect this season when coming off a loss with a 21-1 SU record but that was during the regular season AND they can still win this game but asking them to do so by 8 or more is too much to ask. We all doubted the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 11 of their last thirteen games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and it clearly showed in Game 1 which was an easy C’s win. What makes Boston so dangerous is that if their best player, Irving, is off they have so many others that can step up and carry the scoring load. This will be another close game. Grab the points. |
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04-29-19 | Blazers +4 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-121 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4 over @Denver Nuggets, 10:30pm ET – Denver is coming off a very tough series with San Antonio and now play just a few days after a dramatic Game 7 win. Portland has had extra rest off their series with OKC and the extra game planning will be a huge factor tonight. During the regular season the Nuggets were favorited by 6-points and 4.5-points at home in the two clashes with the Blazers so you can see for yourself we’ve lost a little value here. But that won’t deter us from playing on Portland as we feel the adjustment is justified. The Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who just shot over 47% in three of five games against the Thunder and have made over 40% of their 3-point attempts in the playoffs. Portland is 16-5 ATS their last 21 games when playing with 3+ days of rest and we feel that will be a big key tonight. This goes down to the wire, grab the points! |
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04-28-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Sunday 1PM ET Game 1 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. We all started doubting the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 10 of their last twelve games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and we like their chances to keep this contest close throughout. Grab the points! |
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04-27-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -6 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
ASA play on: @Toronto Raptors -6 over Philadelphia 76ers, Saturday 7:30PM ET – Game 1 – Both teams come into this contest with similar recent results. Each team lost the opener of the series in round 1 then won 4 straight games to close out the series. The Raptors enjoy a solid home court advantage in this game as they finished the regular season with a 32-9 SU record and a +7.5-point per game differential which was 7th best in the NBA. Toronto was top 9 in the league at home in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and of their 32 home wins, 25 came by 6 or more points. Both Raptors wins at home over Philadelphia were by 11 and 17-points respectively. Conversely, the 76ers had disappointing numbers on the road this season with a negative differential of -2.7PPG which was in the bottom half of the league. Philly was 16th in OEFF ratings on the road and 17th in DEFF. The Sixers weren’t great as underdogs in this price range either this year with a 3-9 ATS record when getting 5 or more points this season. Let’s not forget, this isn’t the same Toronto team that was poorly coached in the post season and choked in the past. The veteran leadership of Leonard and Gasol has had a big impact on the rest of the roster and made this team a legitimate contender in the East. In our opinion, Philly is not in the conversation because of their home/road dichotomies. Play on the Raptors at home in Game 1. |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, 8PM ET Thursday – The Nuggets have rebounded in this series to take a 3-2 lead but it’s not over yet according to our math model. The Spurs have won 14 of the last fifteen meetings against the Nuggets on their home floor and with their backs against the wall they’ll find a way to win this game tonight. In Game 3 the Spurs were favored by -4.5 points and now the line has fluctuated down to minus -3 as of this writing. We are going against the Nuggets here for the same reason we’ve faded the Spurs a couple games in this series and that’s home/road dichotomies. Denver has a negative road differential of -2.6PPG this season which is 4th worst of all the playoff teams. They are outside the top half of the league in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency on the road this season compared to top 5in both at home. San Antonio had the 10th best home differential in the league at +6.8PPG and were top 9 in both OEFF and DEFF on their home court. A big reason why the Spurs have a solid point differential at home is their 3-point shooting in their building which is best in the NBA at 41.6%. The Nuggets are slightly better than league average in defending the 3-point line when away from home. San Antonio has been extremely good off a loss and playing at home with a 12-3 SU record this season. This series gets extended with a Spurs win by 7 or more. |
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04-24-19 | Jazz +8.5 v. Rockets | Top | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz +8.5 over Houston Rockets, Wednesday 8PM ET – Game 5 - The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and money siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after three straight Rockets wins to start this series. The 3-1 Houston lead in this series has led to tremendous value with the Jazz here in Game 5. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranked 18th in DEFF on the season. Of all the playoff teams, only the Spurs and Clippers were worse. Utah on the other hand had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA this season and it showed in Game 3 and 4. In Game 3, even though they lost, the Jazz held the Rockets to 38.4% shooting and 104 points. In Game 4, the Jazz limited the Rockets to just 35.4% from the field and 91 points. Both those numbers are drastically lower than their season average of 44.8% and 111.1PPG. The Utah Jazz have been plus 8 or more points just two times this entire season which tells us exactly how good they are. We know how well the favorites are doing in the post season but the value on this game is just too good to overlook the dog. Play on the Utah Jazz plus the points. |
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04-23-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 90-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9:30PM ET – San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this regular season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 12 of fourteen in this series with the favorite covering 12 of the last eighteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 5, with a chance to take back the advantage in the series. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver found their shooting touch in Game 2 at home and Game 4 in San Antonio. Popp had a great game plan in Game 1 and stole a win on this court. The Nuggets have adjusted and get this crucial home win tonight by double digits. |
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04-23-19 | Marlins v. Indians -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Cleveland (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Tuesday at 6:10 PM ET |
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04-20-19 | Rockets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz -2.5 over Houston Rockets, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Game 3 - The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and cash siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after two beat-downs in Games 1 & 2 of this series which has led to tremendous value with the Jazz. These two teams met on this floor in early February with the Jazz favored by -7-points and now they are laying several points less than that. Utah has also won 22 of their last 26 home contests and have the 5th best overall home point differential in the NBA at +7.9PPG. They were 14th in offensive efficiency ratings at home and 3rd in DEFF. Houston is one of three teams in the NBA right now that we feel can win it all this season (Milwaukee and Golden State) but this is clearly a ‘play against’ situation. Houston was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season with a positive road differential of +2.4PPG. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranks 15th in DEFF on the road this season. Houston was just 17-23-1 ATS on the road this year, 9-11 ATS against other playoff teams when on the road. Utah is on a 13-6 SU run at home against other playoff teams and ALL thirteen of those wins came by more than today’s spread! That means when they win this game, they also cover the short number. In a must win situation, at home, the Jazz get a big win! |
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04-19-19 | Celtics v. Pacers -2.5 | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 8:30PM ET – If there is a game the Pacers are going to win it’s this one. Indiana outplayed the Celtics in Game 2 and this series should be even. With just 51 seconds to play the Pacers had a 2-point lead but got outscored 10-0 to end the game. Indiana was 29-12 SU at home this season while Boston was 21-20 on the road. Indiana has a home differential of +7.7PPG which is the 6th highest number in the NBA. The Pacers strength at home this season was their defense which was 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings, allowing just 1.027 points per possession. Let’s not be mistaken, the Celtics had some solid road differentials at +2.1PPG which was 6th best in the league but their road offensive efficiency rating was 23rd in the NBA. This Indiana team is a resilient bunch of players that will bounce back from their late game collapse in Boston in Game 2 and grab this home win in Game 3. Indiana a profitable 9-4 ATS their last thirteen home games against road teams with a winning record and the favorite in this rivalry has covered 4 of the last five meetings. |
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04-18-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -4 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
ASA play on San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, Thurs 9PM ET – The Spurs have outplayed the Nuggets in 6 of the eight quarters of this series and if it weren’t for a HUGE 4th quarter in Game #2 this series would be 2-0 Spurs instead of 1-1. We went against San Antonio in the first two games with one main reason backing our analytics and that is the difference in home/road dichotomies for the Spurs. San Antonio has really poor road numbers but also have some really good home statistics. SA was 32-9 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +6.8PPG which was 10th best in the NBA. The Spurs had the 7th best home efficiency numbers and the 9th best defensive efficiency numbers on their home court. At the end of the regular season when Popp was resting players and adjusting his rotations the Spurs went 0-5 ATS and that has influenced the betting number on this game. If we eliminate that 0-5 ATS run the Spurs were 24-12 ATS at home on the season. Denver has not been a profitable road spread team this season with the 3rd worst ATS record in the NBA at 17-24 and just 10-11 as a road dog. Those are not statistics you would expect of a 2 seed in the West. The Nuggets regular season road differential of -2.6PPG is one of the worst differentials of all the playoff teams (only Philly, Spurs and Pistons are worse). Denver is 17th in offensive efficiency on the road this season, 16th in defensive efficiency. The chalk has covered 11 of the last sixteen and we like the Spurs here to win by 8. Lay it. |
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ASA ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-06-19 | Broncos +7 v. Chargers | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers -3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
10-06-19 | Patriots -15 v. Redskins | Top | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
10-05-19 | Washington v. Stanford +15.5 | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 13 m | Show | |
10-05-19 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -7 | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
10-05-19 | Western Kentucky -3 v. Old Dominion | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
10-05-19 | TCU v. Iowa State -3 | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos -2.5 | 26-24 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
09-29-19 | Seahawks -5 v. Cardinals | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
09-28-19 | Ohio State -16.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 51 h 9 m | Show |
09-28-19 | SMU v. South Florida +8 | 48-21 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 6 m | Show | |
09-28-19 | Iowa State v. Baylor +3 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show | |
09-28-19 | BYU -2.5 v. Toledo | 21-28 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 10 m | Show | |
09-27-19 | Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
09-22-19 | Broncos +8.5 v. Packers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
09-22-19 | Bengals +7 v. Bills | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
09-21-19 | Utah State -4 v. San Diego State | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 48 m | Show | |
09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
09-21-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
09-20-19 | Utah -3.5 v. USC | 23-30 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 27 m | Show | |
09-17-19 | Phillies v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +2 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 59 m | Show |
09-14-19 | Oklahoma -22.5 v. UCLA | Top | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 42 m | Show |
09-14-19 | Air Force +4 v. Colorado | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 44 h 13 m | Show | |
09-12-19 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -138 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
09-09-19 | Texans +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 78 h 9 m | Show |
09-09-19 | Brewers -1.5 v. Marlins | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -120 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Colts +7 v. Chargers | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Bills +3 v. Jets | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show |
09-07-19 | BYU v. Tennessee -3 | 29-26 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 45 m | Show | |
09-07-19 | Nebraska -4 v. Colorado | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
09-07-19 | Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show | |
09-06-19 | Marshall +12.5 v. Boise State | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 22 m | Show | |
09-05-19 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma -22.5 | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
08-31-19 | Virginia -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State -4.5 | 36-31 | Loss | -103 | 67 h 22 m | Show | |
08-30-19 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -132 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
08-30-19 | Rice v. Army -21.5 | 7-14 | Loss | -103 | 56 h 11 m | Show | |
08-26-19 | Reds -1.5 v. Marlins | 6-3 | Win | 105 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
08-25-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
08-24-19 | Arizona v. Hawaii +11 | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 32 h 23 m | Show | |
08-24-19 | Royals v. Indians -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
08-24-19 | Texans v. Cowboys | Top | 0-34 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
08-23-19 | Bills v. Lions +1.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 10 m | Show |
08-21-19 | Phillies +1.5 v. Red Sox | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
08-19-19 | Padres v. Reds -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
08-18-19 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
08-15-19 | Packers v. Ravens -4 | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
08-09-19 | Vikings v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 34-25 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
08-03-19 | White Sox v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -128 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
08-02-19 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
08-01-19 | Astros -1.5 v. Indians | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
07-28-19 | Yankees +1.5 v. Red Sox | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
07-27-19 | Indians -1.5 v. Royals | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
07-26-19 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Nationals | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
07-24-19 | Royals v. Braves -1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
07-22-19 | Indians -1.5 v. Blue Jays | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
07-13-19 | Dodgers v. Red Sox -1.5 | 11-2 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
07-03-19 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
06-27-19 | Nationals -1.5 v. Marlins | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
06-25-19 | Pirates v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
06-18-19 | Astros -1.5 v. Reds | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
06-05-19 | Raptors +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -7 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
05-21-19 | Bucks -3 v. Raptors | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +3 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
05-16-19 | Blazers +7 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
05-12-19 | Blazers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
05-10-19 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
05-07-19 | Blazers +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 98-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -1.5 | 113-101 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -2 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 102 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -2 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
05-01-19 | Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
04-30-19 | Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
04-30-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 102-123 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
04-29-19 | Blazers +4 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-121 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
04-28-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
04-27-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -6 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
04-24-19 | Jazz +8.5 v. Rockets | Top | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
04-23-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 90-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
04-23-19 | Marlins v. Indians -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
04-20-19 | Rockets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
04-19-19 | Celtics v. Pacers -2.5 | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
04-18-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -4 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |