ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -1.5 over South Dakota State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET

South Dakota State sits at 5-1 and in 1st place in the Summit.  We feel they are overvalued right now and this is a great spot to go against them.  They have played a very easy conference schedule as they’ve already faced the 4 worst teams in the 9 team Summit.  Their other 2 games were vs Oral Roberts (win at home) and Nebraska Omaha (loss on the road).  They’ve played 3 road games in conference play losing to Omaha as we mentioned and the other 2 were wins but @ Denver and @ Western Illinois, the 2 worst teams in the league.  We picked this South Dakota team to contend for the Summit title this year as they returned 4 starters and another who sat out last season but started in 2018.  The started league play slowly with back to back road losses but have since won 2 of their last 3.  Their lone loss during that stretch was @ North Dakota State 72-70 on Wednesday night.  State is also one of the favorites to win the conference.  The Coyotes 11-8 overall record is also a bit misleading as they played 7 games spanning late November into late December without one of their top players Triston Simpson (Senior starting point guard).  Their record was 3-4 without him in the lineup.  They are 7-1 at home this year shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 80 PPG.  South Dakota State is 14-7 overall this year however they have beaten a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 200 this season (Oral Roberts at home).  Unlike South Dakota, they lost 4 of their top 5 players off last year’s team and and their coach who moved onto UNLV.  While they currently sit in 1st place, we feel the Jackrabbits are ripe for an upset.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs +1 over Miami Heat, 3PM ET

This is a great spot to back a veteran, proven team at home off a humiliating loss AND playing with nearly immediate revenge after losing in Miami just a few nights ago. San Antonio just lost at home to the Hawks who they had beaten 21 straight times on their home court. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in a sloppy 4th quarter. Good team respond after efforts like that and even though the Spurs aren’t contender this season, they are still a proud franchise with great coaching and will bounce back here. Miami has struggled on the road all season long with a 11-11 SU record away from home and a negative differential of -2.6PPG (14th). In their most recent meeting, the Heat shot remarkably well at home where they are 18-1, by hitting 47% for the field and 42% from 3. They typically don’t shoot that well away from home this season and face a well-motivated Spurs team. It’s not often the Spurs are a home underdog as it’s happened just 22 times since the start of the 2017 season and they have won 15 of those games. Not to mention they are 8-1-1 ATS their last ten when coming off a loss. We’re betting San Antonio here and invite you to do the same.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas City -7 over Tennessee, Sunday at 3 PM ET

The Titans are obviously on a great roll winning back to back road playoff games as an underdog.  However, now they are in a very tough situation playing their 4th consecutive road game vs a team that is even hotter than they are as the Chiefs have won and covered 7 straight games.  It’s very rare to see a team playing their 4th straight road game spanning into the playoffs.  In fact, out database, which goes back to 1980, reveals it has happened just 4 times and those road teams are 0-4 SU & ATS in that fourth game.  They’ve also had the equivalent of 3 straight road playoff games entering this one as their final regular season game @ Houston was a must win or the Titans would not be in the playoffs.  That takes a toll physically and mentally and that’s why the fourth game has come up all zeros in the past.  KC on the other hand had a week off heading into last week’s 51-31 win over Houston and will be playing again at home.  Just a huge situational edge for KC.  In their two wins thus far, the Titans were outgained in both (by a combined 265 yards) and QB Tannehill has thrown for only 71 & 83 yards.  As good as RB Henry has been, we believe Tennessee will need to do much more offensively in order to keep up with the Chiefs.  Last week the Titan defense faced a whopping 92 offensive snaps which is the equivalent of about a game and a half so that added to their tough road situation should have this defense tired by the 2nd half.  Baltimore had plenty of chances offensively as the Ravens were shut out on downs FOUR times inside Tennessee territory including 3 times inside the 21 yard line.  The Ravens only punted ONCE the entire game.  The Titans were very fortunate in our view.  KC’s last loss was back in November and it was vs this Tennessee team.  The Titans won that game 35-32 but the Chiefs dominated the stat sheet rolling up 530 yards to only 370 for Tennessee.  The Titans scored on a long fumble return and put up the game winning TD with just 23 seconds remaining in the game.  KC also missed 2 FG’s in the 4th quarter and held a 9 point lead in that game with around 6:00 minutes remaining in the game.  KC QB Mahomes put up 446 yards passing and 3 TD’s in that game and we expect another huge effort here.  Despite this number sitting at 7, we still feel the value is with KC.  Speaking of that first meeting, KC was favored by 5 @ Tennessee (late November) and now laying just 7 at home.  Last week Tennessee was +10 @ Baltimore so we would expect it to be about the same here, especially with the Titans travel situation being on the road for basically a full month now.    While Tennessee is getting most of the accolades for how they have been playing down the stretch and in the playoffs, let’s remember that KC has won 7 straight by an average of 17 PPG.  They also just beat the team that WON the AFC South (same division as Tennessee) by 20 points.  We think the Titans run ends here and KC wins by double digits.  

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Milwaukee Bucks -9 over Brooklyn Nets, 6PM ET

We typically or rarely lay points on the road in the NBA, especially a number as large as this one, but we’ll make an exception here with the Bucks. Milwaukee is in perfect harmony as a team which clearly can’t be said about the Nets with Kyrie Irving. Kyrie is easily one of the most skilled players in the NBA but is also a selfish me-first player that destroys team chemistry. The Nets actually have a better record without him on the court this season. The Bucks are capable of winning 70+ games this season with the #1 ranked defensive efficiency unit and the 3rd defensive efficiency numbers. Brooklyn on the other hand is 24th in offensive efficiency and 12th in DEFF. Brooklyn is 11-9 SU at home with an average differential of +0.8PPG. Milwaukee has the best average road differential in the NBA at +11PPG and have won 17 of 21 on the road this season. The Bucks have won their last five games by an average of +16.4PPG and they’ll get a double-digit win here.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON South Alabama -1 over Georgia Southern, Saturday at 4 PM ET

South Alabama was favored here on Thursday night by 2 points over the top rated team in the Sun Belt, Georgia State, and lost by 9.  The Jags actually shot better from the field (46% to 40%) but made only 2 three pointers compared to 15 for Georgia State.  South Alabama also only made 15 of their 24 FT’s (62%) and that from a team that shoots 75% from the line on the season.  Even with that they led by 6 with 12:00 minutes remaining and it was a 3 point game with just over 5:00 minutes remaining.  And remember that was vs the top team in the Sun Belt.  Now they face a Georgia Southern team that power rates as the 3rd best team in the conference yet the spread is basically the same.  Prior to that loss the Jaguars had won 3 straight including road wins at Texas Arlington (2nd rated team in the league) and at Little Rock (currently tied for 1st place).  They catch Georgia Southern playing their 2nd road game in 3 days and coming off a win @ Troy.  GSU has now won 3 straight but they were against the 3 lowest rated teams in the Sun Belt (UL Monroe, Troy, and UL Lafayette).  Even with their win @ Troy, the Eagles are still only 3-6 on the road this season with a defense allowing 73 PPG and nearly 47% away from home.  The home team has won 5 of the last 6 in this series with the only outlier coming last year when Georgia Southern topped the Jaguars here in OT giving the host a bit of extra incentive in this match up.     

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

Great spot for the Terps here.  They are off 2 consecutive road losses @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin.  Now sitting at 3-3 in the Big 10, they can’t afford to give this home game away before going on the road for 2 more games next week.  Purdue comes in off a huge home upset over Michigan State.  They key word there is home, where the Boilers are very good.  Not so much on the road.  Purdue is 1-4 this year in true road games (0-3 in the Big 10) with their only win coming @ Ohio who currently rates as the 10th best team in the MAC. Their road losses in conference play have come by 6, 14, and 26 points including a setback @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10.  They are not a very good shooting team to begin with ranking 283rd nationally at 41.7%, however those number drop significantly when they are on the road.  In fact, in their 5 road games the Boilers have managed to make only 35% of their attempts and just 25% from beyond the arc.  To put those poor numbers in perspective, if those were the full season percentages for Purdue, they would rank 347th out of 350 in both of those categories.  Not good to say the least.  Not only is Maryland in a semi-must win game here, they are back at home where they are 10-0 SU this season winning by an average of 18 PPG.  All but 1 of those 10 home wins have come by at least 10 points.  The Terps play great defense allowing opponents to shoot just 37% so don’t expect a poor shooting Purdue team to find their rhythm in this game.  Maryland has topped 70 points in 8 of their 10 home games while Purdue is averaging just 59 PPG on the road this year.  Last year when the Terps played host to the Boilers they were small dogs (+2) and rolled Purdue 70-56.  At Purdue the Terrapins almost pulled the upset a year ago losing by 2.  The Boilermakers were a much better team last year ranked consistently in Ken Pom’s top 10 throughout the season.  Maryland is a better team this year returning all but 1 key member from last year’s NCAA tourney team.  The Big 10 home teams continue to dominate with a remarkable 108-10 SU mark if you subtract the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska).  Great situation for Maryland and they are the better team this year.  Lay the small number.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON NC State -6.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Revenge is often an overused handicapping tool but there are absolutely some situations where we feel it plays a factor.  Quick revenge, as we call it, is one of those.  That’s what we have here as these teams just met 2 weeks ago today in Clemson and the Tigers pulled out an 81-70 win as a 1-point home favorite.  In that game the Wolfpack only made 5 of 21 from beyond the arc (23%) which was 10 percentage points down from their season average (33%) and the Tigers went to the line more often and made 13 more FT’s which turned out to be the difference.  Despite that NC State was down just 3 with 5:00 minutes remaining in the game.  Now they get Clemson in Raleigh and they have some momentum coming off an easy 80-63 win here over a good Miami FL team on Wednesday.  Not only that, one of their top players, CJ Bryce, was back in the line up after missing 4 consecutive games due to an injury.  Bryce did not play in their loss @ Clemson.  Speaking of the Tigers, we feel this is a fantastic spot to fade this team.  They are coming off 2 monumental wins beating UNC on the road last weekend after losing 59 STRAIGHT times @ North Carolina.  They followed that up with a court storming home win on Tuesday vs Duke.  Before beating the Tar Heels last weekend, Clemson had played 2 true road games this year losing by 18 @ Minnesota and by 19 @ Florida State.  Their home win vs Duke was impressive however their win @ UNC was nothing special as the Heels have already lost to the likes of Wofford, Pitt, and Georgia Tech at the Dean Dome this season.  The Wolfpack have won 10 in a road at home and 28 of their last 33 games here at PNC Arena.  Finally back at full strength and with revenge on their minds, we like NC State to win and cover this one.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Texas A&M -1.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET

A&M is flying under the radar right now because of their poor start to the season.  They were just 3-5 in the first 8 games and 4 of those losses came at the hands of top 100 teams.  Factor in the Aggies were still learning new head coach Buzz Williams new system and a poor start wasn’t all that surprising.  However, they have played very well as of late winning 5 of their last 7 with their only losses coming @ Arkansas and at home in OT vs LSU on Tuesday, a game they led by 6 with less than 2:00 remaining in the game.  That was the Aggies only loss at home this year (7-1 at home) and we expect them to come back and play with some fire today.  The oddsmakers continue to try and catch up with this team as they have covered 5 of their last 6 by a combined 57 points (+9.7 PPG vs the spread their last 6).  They catch South Carolina in an obvious letdown spot as the Gamecocks upset Kentucky on Wednesday night.  It was a game that UK led by 14 in the 2nd half and South Carolina had to battle back for the 3 point win.  Prior to that the Gamecocks had lost 3 straight games including a home game vs Stetson.  They are a poor shooting team (28% from 3) and make only 60% of their FT’s.  They are facing an A&M defense that is very good ranking 16th nationally allowing opponents just 36% and 23rd nationally at defending the arc allowing 28%.  They have held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 60 points or less.  This is also a game that A&M has had circled since last season when they played one of their worst games of the season at home vs South Carolina losing 71-54 as a 4-point favorite.  South Carolina is a young team with 7 underclassmen in their top 8 and we think they have trouble responding on the road off such a huge home win.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -8.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 8:30PM ET

The Spurs have been up and down, but we like them here off a road loss in Miami a few nights ago. Conversely, the Hawks are off a rare win, just their 3rd in their last eighteen games, and we don’t see them playing well here. San Antonio is 3-1 SU their last four home games which includes a 22-point home win over the Bucks in their last home game. Atlanta has the worst average differential in the NBA this season at minus -13.8PPG. In the Hawks most recent road contest they were just +8.5 point in Brooklyn who rates several spots lower than the Spurs in our power ratings and yet the number is the same in this matchup. Atlanta was drubbed by the Nets by 22-points in that road game. Atlanta is 1-7 SU off a win this season while the Spurs are 6-3 ATS at home off a loss. Current trending statistics have the Hawk shooting under 42% their last five games while the Spurs are hitting over 48% of their FG attempts. The Hawks defense over their last five games has been worse than the Spurs also. San Antonio is 11-9 SU at home this year but have faced 10 teams at home that made the playoffs last year and the Hawks aren’t of that caliber. Atlanta is just 6-14 ATS as a dog in the price range of 5 to 9.5-points this season and their 25th ranked defensive efficiency unit will struggle to slow the Spurs 9th ranked OEFF unit. The Hawks also have the 30th ranked offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. San Antonio by 10 plus points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Troy +5 over Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET

Troy comes in undervalued with a 7-11 overall record, 3-4 in the Sun Belt.  They are better than their record and playing very well right now.  After starting conference play with a 1-3 record, the Trojans have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss during that stretch coming on Saturday @ Arkansas State where they lost in OT.  Troy led by 11 in the game with just over 7:00 minutes to go and ASU was able to push the game to OT and get a win.  Prior to that the Trojans won by 8 @ Texas State (the pre-season favorite in the Sun Belt) as a 10 point dog and then topped 1st place Little Rock by 5 as a 2 point dog here at Trojan Arena.  Tonight they face a Georgia Southern team that is tied for 1st place (along with Little Rock and Georgia State) and we give Troy a great shot at beating a 1st place team at home for the 2nd straight week.  Georgia Southern is off back to back double digit wins at home vs the two worst teams in the conference (UL Monroe & UL Lafayette) to improve their home mark to 8-0.  However, on the road this GSU team is just 2-6 SU including conference losses @ App State and @ Little Rock.  Their lone Sun Belt road win was by 3 points @ Coastal Carolina.  Even if they win here, we expect it to be close and Southern is laying 5 points when one week ago, Little Rock (also in 1st place) was laying 2 @ Troy (and lost as we mentioned).  The current spread of -5 is GSU’s highest number they’ve laid on the road this season, tied with when they played @ Florida Gulf Coast who is ranked 320th, has a 5-14 record with 2 of their wins coming vs non-division 1 schools and 2 other wins in OT.  This line is too high.  Troy is better defensively allowing 41.6% (150th nationally) while Southern allows 44% and is a full 100 spots lower in total defense (250th nationally).  Troy has won 5 of their last 6 at home with their only loss coming by 5 vs App State in a game the Trojans led by 12 in the 2nd half.  Again, we feel Troy has a great shot to win this game and even if not, it should be close.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Orlando Magic +10.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

We like the Magic in this match up and the double-digits being offered by the oddsmakers. Let’s start with the Magic who have won 5 of their last seven games and getting great contributions from Vucevic, Fornier, Fultz and Gordon. The Magic have been great defensively all season long allowing the least amount of points in the NBA this season, but the offense has struggled. In their last five games though their offensive efficiency numbers are trending up significantly. The Lakers are an impressive 16-4 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory is +10.6 PPG which is on the number here. Of the Lakers 16 home wins though, six of those wins came against six of the worst teams in the NBA and were blowouts by 19 or more points which has inflated their average margin of victory numbers. Tonight, they face a relevant Magic teams that is obviously great defensively and capable of hanging within the spread. Los Angeles is also in a bad scheduling situation here as they just crushed the horrible Cavs and have a big game in Houston next. It looks like Anthony Davis will be out of the lineup again tonight which is a bonus for our Magic bet. Grab the points with the Magic who have been double-digit dogs just once this season and they covered that game.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Alabama +2.5 over Auburn, Wed at 9 PM ET

We’ve been looking for a spot to fade this overrated, undefeated Auburn team and we’ve had our eye on this spot @ Alabama.  We really like the Tide to come up big at home and win this game outright.  Bama is trending upward right now but they are just 1-2 in SEC play making this a very important game for them.  Their 2 conference losses have both come on the road vs two of the better teams in the league.  They lost in OT @ Florida and lost @ Kentucky on Saturday.  At home it’s been a different story for the Crimson Tide as they’ve already faced 4 top 100 teams at Coleman Coliseum and handled all of them easily, including their lone SEC win over Mississippi State 90-69.  Auburn is 3-0 in league play but they’ve faced the easiest conference schedule thus far and Alabama will be the 2nd highest rated team the Tigers have played all season.  The only other team they faced ranked inside the top 60 was NC State ranked 50th (Bama is 53rd) and Auburn played host to the Wolfpack and squeaked by with a 6 point win in a game they never led by more than 10.  These two teams have faced 3 common opponents this season with similar results with a slight edge actually to Bama.  The Tide beat Furman by 8, Auburn beat Furman by 3 in OT.  The Tide beat Miss St by 21, Auburn beat Miss St by 12.  The Tide beat Richmond by 12, Auburn beat them by 14.  While comparing results of common opponents doesn’t always tell the whole story, it does give us a solid comparison.  In our opinion and based on our power ratings, Alabama is undervalued right now and Auburn is overvalued.  Take the Tide to win this game outright as Auburn falls from the ranks of the unbeaten.   

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Marquette -3 over Xavier, Wed at 8 PM ET

We were on Marquette in a similar situation for our first top game of the season.  The Golden Eagles were coming off a bad loss @ Creighton and needed a win at home vs Villanova to avoid dropping to 0-2 in Big East play.  They rolled up a 71-60 win and cover in that game.  Now Marquette is off a tough OT loss to a surging Providence team and a 69-55 @ Seton Hall, the top rated team in the Big East, over the weekend.  This situation with Marquette at 1-3 in league play is even more desperate then when they face Nova a week and a half ago.  Xavier is in a similar spot at 1-3 in conference play but they are absolutely trending down over the last month or so.  They have played 3 of their 4 conference games at home yet still have only one 1 Big East game.  After starting the season 9-1 SU the Musketeers are just 3-4 their last 7 games.  They are coming off 2 straight double digit home losses which tells us they are full blown struggle mode.  The Golden Eagles step into this game as the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the nation at 40% and with Xavier hitting only 29% of their 3’s on the season (301st nationally) we are not sure they’ll have enough to make up that deficit from deep.  The Golden Eagles won here at Fiserv Forum by 18 points last year vs Xavier and they have won 24 of their 28 games here since the building opened at the beginning of last season.  We’ll have the best player on the court (Markus Howard) and it this spot we really like Marquette here. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -3 over Indiana, Wed at 7 PM ET - ASAwins Big 10 Game of the Week

This game has set up perfectly for Rutgers in our opinion.  The Scarlet Knights are a very good team this year and we’re catching them off a tight loss @ Illinois on Saturday in a game they never trailed by more than 6.  That dropped them to 3-2 in Big 10 play with their other loss coming @ Michigan State a game Rutgers trailed by just 6 with under 4:00 minutes remaining.  Tonight starts a huge stretch for the Knights with 4 of their last 5 at home.  They can make a big move in the Big 10 and it starts vs Indiana.  They are a perfect 11-0 at home including conference wins over top 35 opponents Penn State (35th), Wisconsin (22nd) and Seton Hall (13th).  They have won by at least 10 points in 8 of their 11 home games including an impressive 20 point victory over Seton Hall who is currently rated as the top team in the Big East.  The Knights are simply fantastic on defense ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th in the country allowing their opponents to shoot just 36.7% from the field.  Indiana is vastly overrated in our opinion with a 13-3 record.  They are 3-2 in Big 10 play as well but have played the easiest conference schedule to date having already faced both Northwestern & Nebraska, the two worst teams in the league by a mile.  We currently have IU rated as the 11th best team in the conference and Ken Pom’s ratings almost agree as he has them 10th.  The Hoosiers are coming off a big home win over OSU on Saturday in a game that was much closer than the 66-54 final score.  Before that IU struggled to beat Northwestern (won by 4) and Nebraska (by 6 in OT) and both of those games were at home.  They have played just 2 true road games on the season and they were smoked in both games losing by 20 @ Wisconsin and by 16 @ Maryland.  The Hoosiers are averaging just 60 PPG on 38% shooting on the road and tonight they run into one of the best defensive teams in the nation as we mentioned.  This Rutgers team is by far their best team in the last 15+ seasons.  We have them rated in the top 30 and Ken Pom has them at 32.  To put that in perspective, they haven’t been in the top 70 period since Ken Pom’s records began in 2002.  They’ve actually been outside the top 100 in most of those seasons.  Last year when these two met here, Rutgers was ranked 97th in KenPom and they won by 8.  Two years ago Rutgers was ranked 130th at the time they beat Indiana in the Big 10 tournament.  The Knights continue to fly under the radar and the oddsmakers haven’t even caught up with this team as they are 9-1 ATS their last 10.  The Big 10 is loaded this year which makes it tough to win on the road.  In fact, if you subtract the two worst teams (Nebraska & Northwestern) the top 12 teams in the conference have a record of 107-10 SU at home.  We really like Rutgers here and expect an easy cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON DePaul +9.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One

We’re getting some value here on DePaul because of their 0-3 start in the Big East.   Make no mistake this team is the best Blue Demon team in well over a decade.  Don’t forget this team won 12 of their first 13 games before their current 3 game losing streak.  They topped some very solid teams during that early run as well beating Iowa, Minnesota, and Boston College on the road and Texas Tech at home.  The Demons are 4-1 SU in their 5 road games this year with wins over some legit competition as we mentioned.  Their 4 losses this season have all been competitive with margins of 1, 5, 7, and 8 points.   Their 3 game Big East losing streak is nothing to be ashamed of as they took Seton Hall (the 2nd highest rated Big East team behind Butler) to the wire losing by 8 in a game the Demons led with 2:30 remaining in the game, an OT loss to a red hot Providence team, and then a 7 point loss @ St Johns over the weekend.  Nova is solid but nowhere near their National Championship caliber teams of a few years ago.  They are a young team with 2 freshmen & 2 sophomores in their top 6 rotation players.  Their defense has fallen way off this year ranking 74th in defensive efficiency after ranking in the top 13 nationally in that category each year from 2014 through last season.  They allow their opponents to shoot 44% on the season which ranks 246th.  DePaul is the much better defensive team so far this season allowing 38.8% which puts them on the top 40 in the nation.  The Wildcats are 3-1 in Big East play, however of their last 9 wins dating back to late February, 7 of those have come by 11 points or less, many against lower competition than they’ll be facing tonight vs DePaul.  Villanova is good, not great.  Facing a talented DePaul team in desperation mode, we just don’t see the Cats being able to pull away here.  It should be close throughout and we’ll take the Blue Demons plus the points.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Clemson (+) over LSU, Monday at 8 PM ET - After watching what happened during semi final weekend, we knew we’d get some value on Clemson in the Championship game. We just didn’t think it would be this much value. Clemson was favored by -2 with the line rising to -3 versus an Ohio State team that many felt was the best team in the country for the entire season, better than LSU. Now that same Clemson team is getting anywhere from 5 to 6 points versus LSU just a few weeks later? This is an absolute buy low (Clemson), sell high (LSU), spot for us. Most bettors are greatly affected by what they see most recently. They watched LSU roll over an Oklahoma team that in hindsight really had no right being in that game. They also watched Clemson get behind a great Ohio State team and battle their way back to a close win. So based on that LSU is going to crush Clemson right? A massive 80% of wagers have come in on LSU because of that recency bias. We love taking the contrarian viewpoint to go against the public here. Let’s first remember that Clemson’s opponent (Ohio State) was light years better than LSU’s opponent (Oklahoma). We liked the Sooners getting 2 TD’s in that game, however in hindsight they had a number of close games (5 Big 12 wins by 7 points or less) in a conference that simply turned out to be not very good. The Big12 won a grand total of ONE bowl game with 5 losses. A very impressive win for the Tigers but we’re pretty certain Clemson or Ohio State would have done the same thing if facing Oklahoma. We were impressed with Clemson’s resolve getting down 16-0 against the Buckeyes and rallying to win with a late TD drive. We’ve heard the narrative that OSU outplayed Clemson in the game and deserved to win. We disagree. While OSU did outgain the Tigers by 99 yards they also ran 23 more offensive snaps and still lost. On a yards per play basis Clemson outgained Ohio State 6.7 YPP to 6.0 YPP. As we stated a few weeks ago, the Clemson players and coaches are very familiar with this situation. This will be the 4th time in the last 5 years they’ve been in the National Championship game – winning 2 of those. This is eerily similar to last year’s National Championship when Alabama was a 6-point favorite and came in with an unbeatable offense averaging 48 PPG (same as LSU this year) and very few gave Clemson a chance. Of course the Tigers went on to roast the Crimson Tide 44-16 outgaining Bama 7.5 YPP to 6.0 YPP. LSU QB Joe Burrow is obviously outstanding. But let’s not forget Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is now 25-0 as a starter, has a National Championship under his belt, and is considered a generational talent that will almost positively be the #1 pick in the NFL draft when eligible. The underdog in the National Championship is now 6-0 ATS the last 6 years and 14-7 ATS the last 21 seasons. The oddsmakers sent out lines about a month ago on potential National Championship match ups and in this one they had Clemson as a 3-point favorite. Now they are getting nearly a full TD based almost solely on the results from their semi final games. Remember, the oddsmakers felt Clemson was 2 to 3 points better than OSU and they were correct with Clemson winning by 6. So if OSU would have won their game vs Clemson, based on the number versus the Tigers they would be between a 7 to 9 point dog against LSU. I’m sure you see our point that LSU is now overvalued. Are they a TD better than the two other teams in the country considered in the top 3? No way. We anticipate this game being very close. Getting points is a bonus and gives us the opportunity to win even if Clemson loses the game. We don’t think they will. We’ll call for Clemson to win their 3rd National Championship on 4 years.

ASA 10* Play on: Charlotte Hornets +8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 8PM ET

The Suns have certainly overachieved this season thus far but that success has led to some lofty spreads as favorites which is not a role they excel in. When favored by 5 or more points this season they are just 2-4 ATS. Phoenix is 4-6 SU their last ten games and the four wins have all come by less than the spread on this game. Charlotte has played a brutal stretch of games against some of the leagues best teams and now step down to their own level of competition. The Hornets were recently underdogs of +12 at Utah, +11.5 at Dallas and +12.5 at Boston and now the 15-23 SU Suns are laying -8.5 points. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS their last ten road games against a team with a sub .400 home winning percentage which is the case today against Phoenix. The Suns have just 1 cover in their last six games as a chalk. Grab the points with Charlotte.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 6:40 PM ET

With all of their injuries in the offensive backfield, the Seahawks have become a one trick pony.  With zero semblance of a running game, they will have to rely almost solely on the passing game and Russell Wilson.  While Wilson has had a fantastic season, his running game with RB Carson, Penny, and Prosise (all out) they did next to nothing on the ground the last week with just 19 yards rushing from their RB’s.  They caught a break last week with Eagle QB Wentz going out with a concussion in the 1st quarter leaving Philly to rely on backup QB McCown who had thrown 5 passes the entire season.  Even with that the Eagles offense was able to push the ball inside the Seattle 25 yard line on all 5 second half possessions but were unable to finish drives with McCown at the helm.  This is also a terrible spot for Seattle as two weeks ago they were in a playoff type game vs SF that came down to the final play, last week they traveled to the east coast and held on with Philly threatening late, and now they are on the road again.  They are also banged up on the offensive line with a number of starters sitting out practices this week.  Defensively the Seahawks rank in the bottom third of the NFL in most key categories and if you thrown out their game last week vs an Eagles offense that was very limited, they have allowed at least 24 points in 7 of their last 8 games.  Green Bay was able to rest last week and most of their players are at 100%.  They are much more balanced offensively with QB Rodgers and RB Jones able to mix it up.  Green Bay’s defense has also really stepped it up down the stretch holding their last 5 opponents to 20 points or less.  Wilson and Rogers have faced off 8 times in their careers with the home team winning all 8 games.  Also NFL home teams in the Divisional round (home & rest) have proven to have a huge advantage with a 25-7 SU record over the last 8 seasons.  We like GB to win this game by a TD or more.  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -2 over Michigan, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love this spot for the Gophers at home.  They are 2-3 in Big 10 play and have played the 2nd toughest conference slate of all league teams.  Their losses have all come on the road to Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue in double OT.  Their most recent game was the loss @ MSU on Thursday night.  The 74-58 Spartan win was a bit misleading as they were within 8 or less for much of the 2nd half.  Also no embarrassment losing @ Michigan State who is the best team in the Big 10.  At home the Gophers are 2-0 in conference play beating Ohio St by 13 and Northwestern by 9.  The Wolverines are 3-2 in conference play but in a tough spot here coming off a double OT home win vs Purdue on Thursday.  They are thin to begin (pretty much a 6 man rotation) especially with their best shooter Isaiah Livers out of the lineup.  In Thursday’s double OT win the Wolverines had 4 players log 39+ minutes.  It was a physically and emotionally draining game with neither team leading by more than 5 the entire game!  Now going on the road vs a very solid Minnesota team coming off a loss will be tough.  As with most Big 10 teams this year, Michigan has been very tough at home but in their 3 true road games they are 0-3 with all 3 losses coming by at least 9 points.  Livers, who is averaging over 13 PPG and shooting over 50% from 3, has missed the last 3 games and remains out for Michigan.  With him on the sidelines (groin injury) they have shot just 27% from beyond the arc.  Minnesota, on the other hand, is back to full strength with the return of starting PG Willis who missed between Dec 21 and Jan 2.  So Michigan is ranked 19th and an underdog to a team that has an 8-7 record?  While the masses jump on the ranked underdog here, we know Michigan is a bit overvalued right now while Minnesota is a very dangerous team that is better than their record.  Take the Gophers.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -11.5 over Louisiana Monroe, Saturday at 2 PM ET

GSU is rated by most analytics as the best team in the Sun Belt right now and our numbers agree with that.  They are 4-2 in conference play but their losses have come on the road and both were down to the wire losing by 2 @ Coastal Carolina and by 3 @ Arkansas State.  In their game @ Ark State the Panthers blew a 14 point 2nd half lead.  GSU is 11-6 and their other losses, besides their 2 Sun Belt setbacks, have all come on the road vs top notch teams.  They lost @ Duke by 11, @ SMU by 9, @ Georgetown by 8, and @ Charleston (the top team in the Colonial) by 4.  As you can see, they’ve played a very tough schedule ranked the 89th toughest in the country.  They have played only 1 home game in league play (4-2 record) and they won that game vs Louisiana 90-52 and they are a perfect 7-0 at home, 20-1 since the start of last season.  Louisiana Monroe is just 2-4 in league play despite playing the easiest schedule in the conference thus far.  They also fall way behind GSU on overall strength of schedule (285th) and even with that easy slate they have a 6-9 overall record.  The Warhawks are 0-6 on the road this year and they are playing their 3rd road game on 6 days having played @ Coastal Carolina on Monday (lost by 29) and @ Georgia Southern on Thursday (lost by 11 but trailed by 19 with 4:00 minutes remaining in the game).  Their road losses have come by an average of 17 PPG.  Monroe doesn’t match up well with Georgia State as they need to be able to hit 3’s to stay in this game.  The Warhawks are good at shooting from deep hitting 39% but they are facing a GSU team that allows opponents to hit only 28% of their 3’s (21st in the nation).  Other than shooting 3’s, La Monroe is not good offensively as they are poor inside the arc and they don’t shoot FT’s well.  They average only 63.8 PPG (326th nationally) and in their road games they’ve only averaged 52.8 PPG.  That’s a HUGE problem here as we don’t feel they’ll be able to keep up with Georgia State.  That’s because the Panthers average 80 PPG and at home they are putting up 86 PPG.  GSU is a very good shooting team (69th overall and 6th best 3-point shooting team in the country) and we just don’t see ULM having a chance to stay in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Iowa +2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET

This is a huge game for the Hawkeyes.  Sort of a must win already even though it’s early in the season.  Iowa is currently 1-3 in Big Ten play and they are off back to back road losses @ Penn State and @ Nebraska.  The Hawkeyes have played just one home game in conference play and that was a 20 point win over Minnesota.  They can’t afford a loss here and we expect a great effort.  Maryland is 3-1 in Big 10 play but their schedule has been the opposite of Iowa’s with 3 home games and just one road game.  They are off back to back big home wins over Indiana and Ohio State and we would expect them to be a bit flat after knocking off the Buckeyes earlier this week.  The Terps have played just 2 true road games and lost both including a 7 point loss @ Penn State.  Maryland is not a great shooting team ranking 157th in shooting percentage and 217th in 3 point shooting percentage.  On the road they’ve been worse, as we mentioned they are 0-2 on the road, and shooting just 38%.  Iowa is 6-1 SU at home this year and 5-2 ATS shooting over 47%.  The Big 10 is so incredibly balanced this year it’s going to be tough to get wins on the road.  That has proven true thus far.  If you subtract the 2 worst teams in the conference (Nebraska & Northwestern) the home teams are an incredible 99-9 SU this season.  Iowa gets a much needed home win on Friday Night.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON California -1.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 10:30 PM ET

Cal has lost 8 of their last 10 yet they are the favorite here vs Washington State for good reason.  The Bears have played a very tough schedule to date (59th rated SOS) and 5 of their last 10 games have come against teams rated inside the top 100 and 9 of those 10 were vs opponents ranked in the top 140.  Compare that with Washington State who has played the 329th toughest schedule in the nation not playing a team ranked in the top 75 all season and facing 5 opponents ranked below 300.  The Cougars have won 7 of their last 8 yet come in as an underdog vs a Cal team that has just 6 wins on the season.  Wazzou has played 7 straight home games and they haven’t played a road game since December 4th.  They are 1-1 in true road games this year beating a bad Idaho team (ranked 318th) and losing by 8 @ Santa Clara.  Historically the Cougs have been a terrible road team winning just 6 times in their last 42 true road games.  Despite playing the vast majority of their games at home Wazzou has shot the ball very poorly all year making only 39% of their attempts (319th nationally) and just 29% of their 3 point attempts (312th nationally).  In their road games they’ve been even worst making 37% of their attempts and only 23% from deep.  The Bears are 6-2 at home this year with their only losses coming to St Mary’s & Harvard, both top 95 teams.  They are solid defensively allowing 41.5% which will be a problem for a bad shooting WSU team.  Cal will be jacked for this game as they know it’s a potential win.  It’s the only game we have them favored in the rest of the season.  We like the Bears to win this one at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oregon -3.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 9 PM ET

We think this Arizona team is solid but a bit overvalued at this point of the season.  They are very young starting 3 freshman and they have played a grand total of ONE true road game this season, a loss @ Baylor.  After starting the season 9-0, the Wildcats have struggled as of late winning just 2 of their last 5 games.  In their first 9 games Arizona played just one team currently ranked inside the top 90 and that was Illinois and the game was in Tucson.  Over their last 5 games they have played 3 top 90 teams and lost to all 3 of them (St Johns, Gonzaga, and Baylor).  Their best wins this season have come against Illinois (29th), New Mexico State (90th), Arizona State (93rd) and Wake Forest (95th).  Three of those four games were played at home and the other vs Wake Forest was a 7-point win on a neutral court.  The Cats have played a true road game in over a month and now they must face one of the best teams in the nation in a tough environment.  The Ducks are 8-0 at home this year and they have won 14 of their last 15 games here at Knight Arena.  They are a great offensive team hitting 50% of their shots on the season (5th best in the nation) and almost 40% of their 3 point attempts (10th in the nation).  They are lethal offensively at home hitting 55% of their shots and 44% of their 3 pointers.  The Ducks are led by a senior point guard Peyton Pritchard that is among the best in the nation.  Oregon has dominated the Cats here in Eugene as of late winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.  As good as Arizona has been, OU has controlled this series overall in recent meetings winning 9 of the last 14.  This line is more than manageable for the Ducks as home and we’ll call for them to win and cover. 

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 8 PM ET

This is almost a must win for Texas State who steps into this game with just a 1-4 record in Sun Belt.  That record is very misleading as they’ve played 4 of their first 5 conference away from home.  They’ve also played a very tough conference slate thus far already facing Georgia State, Georgia Southern, and Arkansas Little Rock, 3 of the top 5 teams in the league, all on the road.  Coastal Carolina (3-2 in league play), on the other hand, has played the 4th easiest conference slate with 3 of their first 5 games at home.  The Chanticleers are coming off a blowout home win over the 2nd lowest rated team in the Sun Belt (Louisiana Monroe) and now must go on the road for the first time since December 21st.  Texas State will be extra motivated here off a home loss to Troy as a 10 point favorite.  It was their first game home after a 4 game road trip and they had only one day off to get ready after playing on the road on Jan 4th and then at home on Jan 6th.  The Bobcats played their worst game of the year in that one and we expect a bounce back effort here.  It was their only home loss of the season as they are now 5-1.  State was one of the favorites in the Sun Belt entering the season and they are undervalued now at 1-4.  They have handled Coastal Carolina in 5 of the last 6 meetings and in a must win spot at home we’ll call for the cover.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET

The Celtics have lost twice to the 76ers this season and can’t afford another loss to one of their biggest rivals. In fact, the Celtics had won 17 of the last nineteen regular season meetings with the Sixers prior to the start of this season. Boston is off a pair of losses including a humbling blowout at home last night to the Spurs so expect a focused team tonight. There shouldn’t be any concern for fatigue here on the side of the Celtics as no starter logged over 30-minutes last night. The Sixers have one of the best home court records and average point differential this year at 17-2 and +9.7PPG and they’re only favored by a bucket here? Boston has the 4th best road differential at +5.9PPG and have been very reliable on the road off a loss with a 4-1 record this season. Dating back to the start of the 2013 season, Stevens and the Celtics have won 60% of their games when coming off a defeat, which is the 6th best record in the NBA over that span of time. Philadelphia will be shorthanded without Joel Embiid tonight who has 53-points, 25-rebounds and 9 assists in the previous two meetings this season. The 76ers haven’t covered a number in five straight games while the C’s are 5-1 ATS their last six as a road dog. Boston wins this one outright!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas -5 over Iowa State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET

We have this line power rated to KU -7 so the value is on the Jayhawks in our opinion.  Kansas has just 2 losses on the season to Duke way back on November 5th and then a 1 point setback @ Villanova.  They have played the toughest schedule in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy yet all 11 of their wins have come by more than 5 points which is tonight’s spread.  KU has played 13 games on the season and ISU will be just the 7th highest rated team they’ve played this year to give you an idea of their schedule strength.  This number is set low because ISU has had success vs Kansas in Ames with a decent 3-3 SU record over the last 6 seasons.  However, this Cyclone team is not the equivalent of teams they’ve had in the past.  We have this team rated in the mid 60’s this season and the teams that beat KU here the last 3 times were ranked 17th, 15th, and 16th in our power ratings at the time of the game.  We wouldn’t even really consider those big upsets so to speak.  This year’s Iowa State team already has 6 losses and they are just 2-5 SU vs top 100 teams.  They also have 2 home losses already this year getting whipped by Iowa 84-68 and losing to Florida A&M who was ranked 311th at the time.  Their best player Haliburton missed the Florida A&M game but that tells you about the surrounding cast this season which is way down from past seasons.  Despite playing the tougher schedule, KU is 13th in offensive efficiency (ISU is 26th) and 2nd in defensive efficiency (ISU is 99th).  The Jayhawk defense allows opponents to shoot just 33% which is #1 in the nation compared to Iowa State who allows 43% which is 170th in the nation.  Kansas will also have a big edge on the boards in this game as the Cyclones are very poor on the defensive glass (298th nationally) and not much better on the offensive glass (197th).  Kansas has been a great road team under Bill Self winning 27 of their last 40 true road games outright and they get another tonight.  KU with the win and cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas State +1 over TCU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPNU

TCU has played one of the easier schedules for a Power 5 school (244th SOS) and along with that the vast majority of their games have been at home.  This will, in fact, be their FIRST true road game of the season and they Frogs have not left the state of Texas since playing in a tourney in Las Vegas in late November.  They are 10-3 on the season and they should probably have a better record than that as they’ve been a favorite in EVERY game this year due to playing a weak schedule and almost all home games.  KSU has just a 7-6 record but they’ve already played nearly half of their games (6) away from home.  All of their losses have come against top 100 teams with the exception of Bradley who ranks just outside the top 100.  Five of their six losses have gone to the wire with margins of 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 points vs solid competition.  The Wildcats are 6-1 at home (22-3 SU their last 25 here) and this will be just their 2nd home game since December 11th.  Over the weekend they traveled to Oklahoma to take on the Sooners and lost by 6 but led by double digits around midway through the 2nd half.  TCU relies very heavily on the 3 point shot which at times does not travel well.  Over 40% of their points come from beyond the arc and KSU’s defense has been very good defending the arc allowing less than 31%.  TCU almost never gets to the FT line as 11.8% of their points come from the stripe which is dead last in the nation.  That means they better be making their 3’s and for a team that hasn’t been away from home since November, that might be a tough task.  This is a big home game for KSU who is now 0-1 in the Big 12 after their road loss on Saturday.  They are 6-1 at home vs TCU since 2013 and we fully expect an outright win here.        

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UT Arlington -5.5 over South Alabama, 8:00 PM ET

UTA enters this game with just a 5-10 overall record and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games.  They are much better than their record and their current stretch gives us some nice value here.  First of all, the Mavericks have played a brutally tough schedule which ranks as the 10th most difficult in college basketball to this point.  This is their first home game in a month as they’ve just finished a 5 game road trip.  Despite playing a very tough schedule, 8 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less including @ Arkansas Little Rock on Saturday (3 point loss).  The Mavs definitely have some impressive losses, so to speak, they took Gonzaga, currently ranked #1 in the nation, to the wire on the road losing by 6.  They lost at Nevada (top 85 team) by 7 and at Furman (top 65 team) by 1.  All of their losses have come vs teams currently ranked 159th or better via Ken Pomeroy and tonight they face a South Alabama team ranked below 200.  The Jaguars are 1-3 on the road with their only win coming by 3 points vs Louisiana who is ranked 266th.  South Alabama’s 3 road losses have all come by 18 points or more with 2 of those 3 losses coming vs teams ranked lower that UT Arlington.  They just lost by 20 points on Saturday @ Louisiana Monroe who is ranked as the 9th best team in the Sun Belt Conference.  This will also be the Jaguars 3 straight road game in just a 5 day span.  Arlington has the much better defense (123rd in defensive efficiency) and they will be facing a South Alabama defense that ranks below 300th in the same category.  The Mavs were picked to finish 2nd in the Sun Belt by the coaches before the season started and at 1-3 currently in conference play (all road games), this is a must win.  UTA has won 5 straight in this series by an average of 14 PPG and they’ve been favored by at least 12 points their last 3 games at home in this match up.  Now, because of their misleading start to the season, we’re laying a much lower number here.   Texas Arlington is the side tonight. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Miami-Ohio Redhawks, Monday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #280

The Redhawks went 5-0 in games decided by 7 points or less this season.  However, in games decided by 15 points or more Miami-Ohio went 2-4.  The odds makers posted a big line on this game and we feel it is justified and like the fact that the Redhawks tend to end up on the wrong side of these blowouts.  Miami-Ohio managed more than 27 points just 3 times in 13 games this season.  Compare that to a Louisiana-Lafayette team that was held below 28 points just ONCE this entire season.  The Redhawks simply won't be able to keep up with the high-powered offense of the Ragin Cajuns.  Louisiana averaged 43.1 points per game in their 10 wins this season.  You can see why we're expecting a blowout here.  On the season the Ragin Cajuns averaged 501.3 yards per game.  By way of comparison, Miami averaged only 305.9 yards per game on offense.  Additionally, Louisiana allowed an average of only 19.9 points per game while the Redhawks allowed 28.2 points per game.  The location of the Alabama Bowl in Mobile, AL of course also favors Louisiana.  The Ragin Cajuns have some extra motivation after losing badly in last year's bowl game against Tulane as they fell to the Green Wave by a margin of 17 points.  They're going to take advantage of mismatches this time around as they face a MAC team that won some tight games this season with "smoke and mirrors" as their full season stats reflect.  Miami gets exposed in this game and we look for UL-Lafayette to roll big.  Lay it!  Bet the Ragin' Cajuns in evening action Monday.

ASA 9* PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets +5 over Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET

The Indiana Pacers have played the 26th easiest schedule to date and are a bit over-rated with their current roster without Brogdon and Oladipo here. Indiana has a negative road differential of minus 0.7PPG which is 10th best in the NBA but they are 7-10 SU away from home. That tells us a lot about this team which has just ONE road win over a team with a winning record. The Pacers are trending down right now with a 1-4 SU record their last five games while the Hornets are trending slightly up. Charlotte has won two straight games and despite a losing home record their average loss margin of -3.7PPG will get the cash in this match up. These teams met on December 15th in Indianapolis with the Pacers coming out on top 85-107 but Charlotte had an uncharacteristic bad shooting night of just 31%. The Hornets shoot nearly 45% at home and have covered 9 of the last ten meetings with Indiana on this court. Charlotte is the play.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +9 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line is way too high in our opinion.  It should be under 7 according to our power ratings.  To give you an idea of what we are talking about, this is the 5th highest spread of the SEASON for New Orleans.  The only teams they faced in which they were laying more than 8 points were Carolina (twice), Atlanta, and Arizona, all teams with losing records.  For comparison’s sake, just a few weeks ago the Saints were favored by 8 here vs Indianapolis who finished with a 7-9 record.  On the other side, this is by far the largest underdog role Minnesota has faced this year.  They were +2.5 @ Seattle (a playoff team) in December and +3 @ Green Bay who is the #2 seed in the NFC.  Recent results have pushed this number too high.  Minnesota closed out the season with 2 losses as they played their worst game of the season @ home vs Green Bay and then lost to Chicago but sat their starters as they were already locked into their playoff position.  New Orleans closed out the season with 3 easy wins but 2 were vs teams who had nothing to play for including Carolina last week who had completely packed it in and had already started interviewing coaches after firing Ron Rivera.  Their lone semi impressive win over that 3 game stretch was beating Tennessee.  However even in that game the Titans jumped out to a 14 point lead but turned the ball over 4 times allowing the Saints to come back and win that one (Saints were outgained).  That win over the Titans was their only win by more than 7 points vs a team that ended the season with a winning record.  The Vikings have played very tight even in their losses with the exception of their game vs Green Bay a few weeks ago.  If you throw that game out, Minnesota’s losses have come by an average of 5 PPG.  Despite New Orleans winning 13 games and Minnesota 10, these two are almost dead even in point differential on the season (Saints +117 & Vikings +104) and Minnesota actually has outgained their opponents by +0.6 YPP compared to New Orleans +0.5 YPP.  We anticipate a close game here and getting more than a TD is a gift in our opinion.  Take Minnesota on Sunday.   

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Utah State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET

San Diego State steps into this game with a perfect 14-0 record so why is USU favored?  Looks too easy to take SDSU.  We like Utah State here.  The Aggies are no slouch as they are 13-3 on the year and were picked by the coaches of the Mountain West to win this conference.  They were 28-7 a year ago and return a number of key players from that team.  They are coming off a poor effort @ UNLV losing 70-53 and we love looking at good teams off poor performances.  Our guess is they were looking ahead to this huge match up.  The Aggies are very tough to beat at home as they are undefeated here this year and have won 23 of their last 24 home games with their only loss during that run coming by 1 point.  These teams met 3 teams last year with Utah State winning twice including here at home 70-54.  The Aggies were favored by 8 at home last year to give you an idea of the value we are getting here.  SDSU is very good this year but they haven’t played a true road game in a full month.  Their starting center Nathan Mensah is most likely out here after he sat out their game vs Fresno earlier this week with a respiratory issue.  He is a big loss as he leads the Aztecs in block shots, offensive rebounding and overall rebounding.  Another key frontcourt player, Aguek Arop, looks like he will miss his 6th consecutive game.  With Mensah out earlier this week, head coach Brian Dutcher was forced to change his starting line up for the first time this year.  It didn’t matter as they were at home facing a Fresno team that is now 4-10 on the season and 0-3 in the Mountain West.  It will matter here.  We feel SDSU needs to be at full strength to come into USU and get a win and they are not.  They are facing a team that shoots very well at home (48%) and defends very well at home (allowing 35%).  The Aggies also shoot very well from the FT line (77%) and they get to the line a lot.  That’s not a great match up for a SDSU team that does foul quite a bit as their opponents this year 22.5% of their points from the FT line (the 40th most in college hoops).  We like this veteran Utah State team to win this game at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over Houston, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

Despite winning the weak AFC South, we feel Houston is the worst team in the AFC playoffs.  Football Outsiders Efficiency rating agrees with us as they have the Texans rated 19th overall in the NFL which is the lowest rating of any team in the playoffs, not just the AFC.  They have been outgained on the season, outscored on the season, and their defense is the worst unit in the playoffs.  Speaking of defense, we get a huge edge on that side of the ball with the Bills who rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense allowing just 298 yards which is nearly a full 100 yards less than a Houston defense that ranks 28th in total defense.  The Buffalo defense allowed more than 21 points only 3 times the entire season and they gave up 17 or less in 10 of their 16 games.  We anticipate the Texans struggling on offense here.  They faced only 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 10 at Football Outsiders and scored 7 vs Baltimore, 23 vs Tampa (16 points from the offense), and 28 vs New England.  Their 28 points vs the Patriots was a bit of an aberration as Houston was actually held to just 276 total yards.  Many may look at the Bills offense and see them having problems here as they average just 19 PPG.  On top of that over their last 4 they have not topped 17 points.  However, over their last 4 games they have faced 4 defenses ranked inside the top 7 in the NFL, thus the struggles as of late.  When facing a defense ranked 20th or lower (Houston ranks 28th) Buffalo averaged 25 PPG.  They run the ball very well (8th in the NFL at 128 YPG) and they are facing a Houston defense that allows 4.8 YPC (27th in the NFL).  On a yards per play basis, the Houston defense ranks dead last in the NFL (tied with Cincinnati) allowing 6.1 YPP.  These two met here last year in the regular season and the Texans prevailed 20-13.  The game was tied at 13-13 with under 2:00 minutes remaining and Buffalo had the ball.  A pick 6 from the Texan defense with 1:28 remaining gave Houston the point margin.  The Bills are much better than a year ago and we think they go in and win this game.  Small underdogs of 1 to 3 points in the Wildcard round are a money making 35-20 ATS since 1978 (64%).  Take the points here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans +10.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET

This showdown will have WAY more meaning for the cast-away Lakers that now play for New Orleans than it will for the current Lakers team. You can bet Ingram, Ball and Josh Hart have had this game circled for some time now and will give max effort against the team that let them go. We don’t feel Anthony Davis has the same hostile feelings towards New Orleans as he was the one that wanted out of town. The Pelicans are playing at a high-level right now and are off a 15-point drubbing of Houston which makes them 5-1 SU & ATS their last six games. That current run includes wins over Portland, Denver and Indiana along with Houston. The Lakers are an impressive 12-4 SU at home this season but their average margin of victory is +8.5PPG which clearly isn’t enough to grab the cash in this one. The Pelican efficiency numbers are good their last six games and they are trending in the right direction. The first meeting of the season was decided by just 4-points which will be the margin again tonight.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -3.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET

The Jazz are playing fantastic right now with wins in 8 of their last nine games, including a recent road win against the Clippers. Utah does not have great road statistics, but they’ve played a tough road schedule which has dramatically impacted their numbers. The Jazz have already faced the best teams in the East and have two road games against the Clippers and one against the Lakers.  We are now getting value with Utah on the road here laying a marginal number. The Jazz have some of the best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers their last five games with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. The Bulls have won 3 of their last five games but those W’s have come against the league’s dregs of Atlanta, Detroit and Washington who have a combined 29-72 SU record. The Bulls offense has struggled all season with the 25th ranked scoring offense and the 30th worst shooting team in the NBA. The Bulls will struggle to score against the Jazz defense that is one of the best in the NBA year in and year out. Jazz by 10 in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON St Louis +3 over Duquesne, Thursday at 7 PM ET

These two both come into this game with just 2 losses but all records are not created equal.  Duquesne is 10-2 but they have played a grand total of ZERO teams ranked inside the top 115.  Their best win of the season was a 3 point win vs Indiana State on a neutral court.  This St Louis team (ranked 91st) will be the best team they’ve faced this season.  The Dukes are reeling a bit right now as well losing their last 2 games, vs UAB by 9 and Marshall by 22, after opening the season with 10 straight wins.  St Louis has a 10-2 record and has played the much tougher schedule.  The Billikens have faced 4 top 100 teams and they beat two of them including Kansas St on the road.  Their only losses are to Auburn and Seton Hall, both ranked in the top 25 per our power ratings.  STL has excelled away from home this year going 3-1 in road/neutral games with their only loss vs Auburn in Birmingham, AL.  This will NOT be a true home game for Duquesne as they are renovating their arena this season and the Dukes will be playing at surrounding college venues.  Tonight’s game will be played @ Robert Morris College with is about 17 miles away from the Duquesne campus and they have not played here yet this season.  So not only are the students gone on break, but both teams are playing in an unfamiliar arena so we give Duquesne no home court advantage whatsoever tonight.  These two A10 opponents met twice last season with Duquesne winning by 4 at home (their actual home court) and STL winning by 11 at home.  One glaring stat in those 2 games was the Billikens offensive rebounding prowess.  In those two games combined they gathered an amazing 47 offensive rebounds!  They are again one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (12th in the nation) and we look for them to dominate the boards again.  St Louis is also the better defensive team allowing opponents to shoot just 39%.  We’ll take the tougher team tonight as an underdog.    

#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati (-) over Boston College, Thursday at 3 PM ET - We really like this situation for a solid Cincy team. The Bearcats have just 3 losses on the season with one coming vs Ohio State and they lost their final 2 games of the season both at Memphis on back to back weekends. Those are far from terrible losses as those 2 teams combined for a 25-1 regular season record. OSU is obviously one of the top few teams in the nation and Memphis, who had 1 loss on the season, gave a very good Penn State team all they could handle in their bowl game. Both of their final 2 losses @ Memphis were games that went to the wire and the yardage was almost dead even in both. One of those losses Cincinnati was forced to use freshman QB Bryant because starting QB Ridder was injured. Speaking of Ridder, his shoulder was not 100% down the stretch and the Bearcat passing game was not great because of that. However, with the extended time off our word is that Ridder is back to 100% which will make this offense much more dynamic. For comparison’s sake, if we throw out the OSU game in which Cincy was shutout, they averaged 37 PPG when Ridder was healthy. Over the final 4 games when his shoulder was not right, they put up only 21 PPG. We expect them to have a very good day offensively vs a BC defense that ranks 125th nationally in total defense allowing 481 YPG. The BC offense relies very heavily on the run. After starting QB Brown went out with a season ending injury in mid October, the Eagles have averaged only 131 YPG passing. They were successful running the ball this year (267 YPG) the problem is, RB Dillon was the main reason for that as he rushed for 1900 yards and 15 TD’s. He is not playing in this game as he prepares for the NFL draft which subtracts easily their top offensive weapon. BC is also in transition as head coach Adazzio has already been fired, offensive coordinator Bajakian has moved onto Northwestern, and WR coach Gunnell is coaching the team as they wait for Ohio State DC Hafley to take over after this game. Cincy is excited to be playing a Power 5 opponent, they have the MUCH better defense, and no turmoil with their coaches. Lay the TD here with Cincinnati.

#255 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Florida State (+) over Arizona State, Tuesday at 2 PM ET - ASU will be playing this game without their 2 top offensive weapons as RB Benjamin (1,100 yards rushing and 10 TD’s) and WR Aiyuk (1,200 yards receiving and 8 TD’s) are both sitting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Their backup RB’s have COMBINED for only 85 yards on the ground this season. For a team that ranks 89th in total offense and 94th in scoring offense, they can ill afford to lose their top 2 playmakers. Many may expect that FSU might be distracted with their coaching situation but we argue that ASU is the team that will be at a bigger disadvantage in that regard. FSU fired Willie Taggart but the interim coach Odell Haggins has been on the Seminole staff since 1994 and coached their final 3 regular season games this year. He also led them to a bowl win in 2017 in a similar situation. The players really like Haggins and he’ll be on new head coach Mike Norvell’s staff next year. ASU, on the other hand, will be playing this game without their offensive coordinator (who was fired at the end of the regular season) AND their defensive coordinator left 10 days ago to take the head coaching job at New Mexico. FSU will also be without their top RB Akers, however they are more experienced behind him with his back up Laborn with 300 yards rushing and 4 TD’s on the season. FSU QB Blackmon has thrown for nearly 5,000 career yards and 40 TD’s should find plenty of openings vs an ASU pass defense that ranks 114th in pass defense. Blackmon will also have his full complement of weapons, including top WR Terry who has 1,800 yards receiving and 16 TD’s over the last 2 seasons. Arizona State has been a money burner in the favorite role going 0-8 ATS their last 8 in that role. This year alone they are 0-6 ATS as a favorite losing half of those games outright. FSU is happy to be back in a bowl after missing the post-season last year for the first time since 1981. We expect them to play well here and we feel an upset brewing.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6.5 over Villanova, Monday at 6:30 PM ET

We have this game power rated to Villanova favored by -3.5 at home so we feel the value is with Xavier.  Nova simply isn’t the team they were a few years ago when they were making Final 4’s and winning National Championships.  They are 9-2 this season with a blowout loss to Ohio State and a 9-point loss to Baylor.  They are coming off a 1 point home win vs Kansas which was impressive but that along with a 7 point win over Mississippi State are their only top 100 wins.  They are a very young team this year with 2 freshmen and 2 sophomores in their top 6 (they basically play just 6 players).  How do they respond after knocking off then #1 Kansas?  This might be a tough game for them.  Xavier is very good this year.  They are the far more experienced team with 4 starters back from last season + the addition of grad transfer Jason Carter who was one of the top players in the MAC last year playing for Ohio.  Their only losses have been down to the wire games vs Florida (lost by 5) and Wake Forest (lost by 2).  They are coming off an impressive 8-point road win @ TCU 8 days ago.  The Muskateeers really played well at the end of last season with this same group of players winning 8 of their last 11 games.  Add that performance to this season and XU is 19-5 their last 24 games.  Their losses during that stretch have come by margins of 2, 2, 4, 5, and 5 points with two coming in OT.  One of those games was in last year’s Big East tourney vs this Villanova team that eventually went on to win the conference tourney.  That game went to OT with Nova winning by 4.  This year’s Xavier team is improved over last season while we feel Villanova has taken a step back.  We think the Muskateers have a decent shot at the outright upset and if not, we expect another close game.  Take the points. 

#250 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON California (-) over Illinois, Monday at 4:00 PM ET - We obviously following Illinois very closely being in Big 10 country.  While they step into this game with a 6-6 record, this is NOT a .500 type team.  They were extremely fortunate to get wins in a number of games this year.  They beat Wisconsin, but were drastically outgained and caught the Badgers coming off Iowa with OSU next.  Even with that Wisconsin led basically the entire game and made a number of key mistakes in the final 6:00 minutes to lose that one.  Versus Michigan State they trailed by 21 in the 4th quarter and had everything possible go their way in that 3 point win despite getting outgained by more than 100 yards.  The Illini were rolled 29-10 in their season finale vs a Northwestern team that hadn’t won a conference game entering that contest.  In conference play, this Illinois team was outgained by nearly 400 yards vs Nebraska, by nearly 300 vs a poor Northwestern offense, by 239 vs Minnesota, by 233 vs Michigan, and by more than 100 vs Wisconsin and Michigan State.  You get the point.  For the conference season the Illini averaged 290 YPG while giving up 440 YPG.  In non-conference play they lost at home to Eastern Michigan, struggled to beat a terrible UConn team that finished the year 2-10, and topped Akron who might be the worst team in all of college football.  While we feel Illinois is drastically overvalued, this Cal team is undervalued in our opinion.  A glance at the full season offensive stats doesn’t tell the entire story.  Sure the Bears struggled offensively, however, when QB Chase Garbers started and played the entire game (he was injured for about half the season) this California team was a perfect 6-0.  With Garbers at QB, the Bears started the season 4-0.  He was injured in the 5th game vs Arizona State with the score tied 7-7 and they went on to lose that game.  They were 1-5 SU without him under center (including the ASU loss) and Garbers came back to start the final 2 games which were wins @ Stanford and @ UCLA putting up over 400 total yards in each of those games.  They averaged 25 PPG with Garbers under center and 15 PPG when he was unable to play.  This Cal defense is good enough to hold Illinois in check.  As much heat as Cal’s offense received this year for being lethargic, they averaged more YPG than the Illinois offense did this year.  The Illini struggle to move the ball through the air averaging just 177 YPG (110th nationally) and the will have problems getting their running game going vs a Cal defense that ranks 26th vs the rush.  Cal’s defense played very well against some potent offenses this year holding Oregon to 17 points, Washington St to 20 points, UCLA to 18 points and Ole Miss to 20 points.  We have advantages on offense and defense in this game and its being played in San Francisco which is only 14 miles from the Cal campus giving them the location edge as well.  We have a feeling the Illinois, playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2014, might just be happy to have gotten to this point.  Cal, on the other hand, is very focused on winning this one after losing in OT vs TCU in their bowl game last year.  The Bears win and cover this one. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Seattle +3.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

This line is a big time overreaction to what happened last week.  Our power ratings have this line at dead even yet we’re getting more than a FG with Seattle at home.  The Seahawks lost last week at home vs Arizona (we were on the Cards) in a game that really wasn’t that important for Seattle.  Even with a win over Arizona last week, this game vs San Fran would have been for all the marbles in the NFC West.  These two met on November 11th with the Niners going off as a 6 point favorite in that game and Seattle winning 27-24 in OT.  Now the Niners are laying more than a FG on the road?  We understand Seattle’s cluster injuries at the RB spot but bringing in Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, 2 players who know the system and the plays, we’re guessing their running game will be fine on Sunday.  Not to mention they will be facing a SF defense that has been trending downward for over a month now allowing 46, 29, and 31 points the last 3 weeks alone.  Seattle had some key defensive players sitting out last week with injuries but it looks like many will return this week including DE Clowney and LB Griffin.  This is the first time Seattle has been a home dog this year.  For comparison’s sake the Seahawks were -5 here vs New Orleans and -3 vs Baltimore.  That puts this number into perspective.  The Seahawks have been a huge money maker as a home underdog going 13-2 ATS in that role since 2011.  They’ve also owned this NFC West series winning 13 of the last 15 games vs the 49ers (12-3 ATS) with SF’s only wins during that stretch coming by 2 points and 3 points in OT.  We’ll take the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON NY Giants +4 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Many will be jumping on Philly here because they have to win to clinch the NFC East title.  Please keep in mind that many teams that have to win, don’t win.  We give the Giants a good shot at the upset here.  The Eagles beat Dallas last week but let’s face it, they were not playing well coming into that game.  In their previous 3 games before facing off with Dallas, they lost to Miami, beat this NYG team in OT, and scored with under 30 seconds left to beat Washington.  Not overly impressive.  As we mentioned these two met a few weeks ago in what was a very important game for the Eagles and the Giants led 17-3 at half but lost in OT.  That was with immobile Eli Manning at QB for NY and now with Jones back at QB we feel the Giants have a better chance in this one.  Jones returned last week from injury and threw for 352 yards and 5 TD’s while also giving them a running threat from that position.  He’ll also get help from now healthy RB Barkley who had 189 rushing yards and 90 receiving yards last week.  The Giants offense has now put up 400+ and 500+ yards in each of their last two games, both wins.  NY has been competitive with 5 of their last 7 losses coming by a TD or less and they have some momentum coming into their home finale off back to back wins.  Philly 1-2 ATS this year as a road favorite and we’re not sure we can even count cover @ Washington as it took 2 TD’s in final 30 seconds (defensive TD included) to get that lucky cover.  How much does Philly have left in the tank after 3 straight down to the wire division games including a must win last week vs Dallas?  NY will come to play here as they’d like nothing more than to knock Philly from the NFC East top spot.  Close game and we’ll take the points

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +3 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Browns have obviously been a huge disappointment this season.  We could see them mailing it in this week in their season finale @ Cincy.  They had a big game last week at home vs Baltimore, their last hurrah so to speak, and lost 31-15.  With a team that lacks character like Cleveland and with nothing to play for, we anticipate a poor effort here.  On the other side, while the Bengals have only 1 win on the season, they’ve been much better since inserting Andy Dalton back at QB a month ago.  Unlike Cleveland, the Bengals are also showing some fight as witnessed in last week’s game @ Miami where they trailed 35-12 in the fourth quarter and battled back to send the game into OT where they lost by a FG.  In their home finale, we have no doubt this team wants to up their 1 win and go out on a positive note.  They’ve also already locked up the #1 pick in next year’s draft so no taking for Cincy here.  These two just met in Cleveland 3 weeks ago and the Browns won that game 27-19.  It was a misleading final however as Cincinnati outgained the Browns by 120 yards but gave up a 61-yard pick 6 which turned out to be the difference.  The Bengals were +10 in first downs in that first meeting and controlled the ground game in that loss with 179 yards rushing.  They tallied 451 total yards and after last week’s performance they have topped 400 yards in 2 of their last 3 games.  The Browns have also been a money burner as a road favorite at 1-3 ATS & SU this year and 1-5-1 ATS in that role since 2012.  We like Cincinnati to win this game so we’ll take the points.

ASA PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans + over Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET

The Pelicans are trending in the right direction, especially defensively where they are allowing just 1-point per possession over their last five games. That efficiency ranks them 2nd best in the entire NBA over that time. The Pels have held their last five opponents to an average of just 40.7% shooting from the field and allow 101.4 points per game in that stretch. Indiana has played a tough schedule of late and are coming off a much bigger game last night in Miami. In their last five games the Pacers are shooting just 41.2% from the field while scoring less than 105PPG. Indiana does have a positive road differential of +1.1PPG but they’ve also played the 4th easiest road schedule in the NBA this season. New Orleans has recently beaten Minnesota, Portland and Denver on the road and are playing their best basketball of the season. Indiana is off their hard-fought 1-point loss to the Heat and will have a hard time getting back up here. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings and get the cash in this one!

#241 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma (+) over LSU, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - This Oklahoma team and their head coach Lincoln Riley understand what this College Football playoff appearance is all about. That’s because they were here last year in a very similar situation. The Sooners, the #4 seed a year ago, came in as 13.5 points underdogs vs Alabama who was the # 1 seed. OU lost that game by 11 points but picked up the cover. They did get down by 21 points at one point, however when an offense like OU’s is getting 2 TD’s, they are never out of it and they proved that last year. They put up nearly 7.0 YPP on one of the best defenses in the country last year in this game. Now they face a potent LSU offense, however the Tiger defense is not nearly the caliber of last year’s Alabama defense. We see a similar type game this year. The Sooner defense is underrated this year. Last year they entered this game allowing a ridiculous 454 YPG. This season they are giving up just 331 YPG, a full 120+ yards better than last year, and they’ve allowed an average of just 278 YPG over their final 4 games of the season. On the year the OU defense is allowing almost 100 YPG less than their opponents are averaging. While we don’t expect them to shut down a potent LSU offense, we also don’t think the Tigers will be able to move the ball at will as many believe. Offensively the Sooners have scored at least 30 points in all but one game this year and they’ve topped 40 in 8 of their 12 games this year. Sooner QB Jalen Hurts has tremendous experience playing in college football’s version of the Final 4 as this will be his 4th straight year playing in the college football playoff (played with Alabama the previous 3 seasons). LSU’s coaches and players have not played in playoff which we feel gives a bit of an edge to OU in the experience aspect. The Tigers are very good but we don’t think they should be a full 2 TD favorite in a game of this magnitude. They did beat UGA by 27 in the SEC Championship game, however vs the other top tier SEC teams LSU was not dominant beating Bama by 5, Auburn by 3, and Florida by 14 with the last 2 games mentioned coming at home. Oklahoma’s offense is definitely good enough to keep up in this game and we expect them stay within this lofty number.

#237 ASA PLAY 9* ON Iowa State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 12 PM ET - ISU comes into this game with a 7-5 record but they are much better than that mark. Three of those losses came at the hands of Oklahoma, Baylor, and Iowa (all top 16 teams in the final college playoff rankings) by a combined 4 points. Their other 2 losses to Oklahoma State and KSU, the Cyclones were tied with both in the 4th quarter. Despite only finishing 2 games above .500, Iowa State was +100 YPG and +9 PPG on the season. This team was very close to having 9 or 10 wins this season. We expect ISU to be very motivated facing a national brand (Notre Dame) as well as they fact they enter this one off their worst performance of the season (a 10 point loss @ KSU). Notre Dame enters on a 5 game winning streak but the competition was pretty average down the stretch. Three of those wins came vs teams that finished at .500 or below and another was a 1-point home win over Va Tech with the Irish scoring a TD in the final seconds to win. Their lone impressive win down the stretch was vs Navy. The Notre Dame defensive stats vs the pass are impressive. However, we feel they’ll have trouble slowing down an Iowa State passing game that ranks 8th in the nation under QB Purdy. Notre Dame’s pass defense stats are a bit misleading as they have faced just ONE team ranked in the top 35 this season in pass offense. That was USC and the Trojans put up 430 total yards on the Irish. It was also USC QB’s Slovis first game back after an injury and he passed for 255 yards and 2 TD’s in that game (Notre Dame 30-27 win). On the other side of the ball, we feel Iowa State’s defense is underrated. They allowed just 362 YPG despite facing a plethora of potent offenses in the Big 12. Taking points in ISU games has been profitable this year as the dog has covered 8 of 11. Our power ratings have this closer to a pick-em game and we’re getting over a FG which is a lot considering many of ISU’s games vs top notch opponents have come down to the wire. The Cyclones lost their bowl game last year 28-26 vs Washington State and head coach Matt Campbell has them focused on getting a win this year. We’ll call this one close and take the points with Iowa State.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Memphis Grizzlies +6 @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET

The situation really couldn’t be any better to play on the Grizzlies tonight as they are off an embarrassing loss to the Spurs in which they gave up 145 points AND recently loss to OKC on Dec 18th. In that game the Grizzlies held a 21-point advantage that the Thunder eventually overcame to win by 4-points. Memphis held a decisive advantage on the boards, but Oklahoma City benefitted from some ‘home cooking’ with plus +12 free throw makes. OKC also received 20-points, 3-rebounds and 3-assists from Danilo Gallinari who is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, yet the line is the same as a week ago. OKC has an average margin of victory is +5.1PPG at home this season which is not enough to get the money in this game plus they are in a bad schedule situation. The Thunder recently beat this team, are off a big upset win of the Clippers and have the Mavericks on deck. Memphis has covered 4 of the last five meetings and should cash another ticket tonight.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) over Eastern Michigan Eagles, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #225

This game is in Detroit and while some may think Pitt is not all that excited to be here, we would disagree. Our word is the Panthers are really focused on getting their first bowl win since 2013 and head coach Pat Narduzzi is emphasizing just that. There is a massive gap defensively in this game. Pitt ranks 11th in the nation in total defense allowing only 302 YPG on just 4.4 YPP. Meanwhile EMU ranks 92nd in total defense (428 YPG) and allows over 6.0 YPP. EMU’s offensive stats look impressive averaging 29 PPG until you did deeper. The fact is they’ve only faced TWO defenses currently ranked in the top 20 Buffalo & Kentucky, and they scored 14 and 17 points in those games. They did most of their damage vs a slate of bad defenses including 7 of their opponents who ranked 79th in total defense or lower. Here they will face the best defense they’ve seen this year. Offensively for Pitt, their struggles have been in the red zone. They are averaging nearly 380 YPG (only 25 YPG less than an EMU team that has played vs a terrible defensive schedule) but they are only averaging 20 PPG. They are only averaging 18 yards per point which speaks to their red zone struggles. We think that changes here as they face one of the worst defenses they’ve seen this season and one that is terrible stopping teams in the red zone. EMU has allowed their opponents to score 33 TD’s in their 45 red zone trips this year which is 7th worst in the nation. They also struggle to put pressure on the QB (100th in sacks per game) so Pitt QB Pickett should be able to get comfortable and have a big game. On the flip side, the Panther defense leads the nation in sacks averaging over 4 per game which will be a big problem for an Eagle offense that relies heavily on the pass. Oh and if Eastern Michigan thinks they can run on Pitt, the Panthers have allowed only 2.9 YPC on the year which is the 8th best mark in the country. The MAC is 2-1 SU & ATS this year in the bowls but historically they’ve been terrible. Entering this season the MAC has only won 16 of their last 62 bowl appearances outright with a spread record of 20-40-2 during that stretch. Pitt is the much better team here and they seem to be focused on the task at hand which should lead to a big win here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PMET

The Packers have been treading on thin ice for quite some time and now and we think it catches up with them here.  They are 11-3 on the season but they have been outgained by their opponents 371 YPG to 336 YPG.  They rank 21st in the NFL in total offense and 23rd in total defense.  Those simply aren’t the numbers of an 11 win team.  Last week a struggling Bears offense outgained Green Bay by 123 yards but the Packers pulled out an 8 point win.  That was the 7th time this season GB has been outgained yet still won the game.  Aaron Rodgers is barely completing 50% of his passes over the last 3 weeks and Green Bay has been held to 24 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games.   It’s really tough to keep winning when you’re getting consistently outplayed on the stat sheet.  Especially on the road vs a solid team.  Minnesota is 6-0 at home with all but one win coming by at least 10 points.  Their average margin of victory here in Minneapolis is 13.5 points.  In the first meeting the Vikes rolled up 421 yards and held GB to just 335 but the Packers squeaked out a 21-16 win.  Minny QB Cousins, while most wouldn’t expect it, is having a better year the Rodgers.  He’s completing 70% of his passes (63% for Rogers), with 3,481 yards (Rodgers slightly less at 3,463), 25 TD’s (24 for Rodgers) and a rating of 111.1 (Rodgers is at 100.4).  If the Vikings lose here they give Green Bay the NFC North title.  A win by Minnesota extends us to next week to determine who wins the division.  The fact is the Vikes are better on offense (ranked 9th to 21st for GB), better on defense (14th to 23rd), and the better scoring team (7th to 14th for the Packers).  They are also a terrific home team winning 16 of their last 19 home games with 15 of those 16 wins coming by at least a TD.  Under Zimmer the Vikings are 28-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or less.  This has been a tough place for Green Bay to play as their last win in Minnesota was back in 2015.  Lay it with the Vikings here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marshall Thundering Herd (+) over Central Florida Knights, Monday at 2:30 PM ET: Game #211

This will almost absolutely be a situation of a team that wants to be here (Marshall) vs a team that had their sights set much higher this year (UCF). The Knights have played in back to back New Year’s Day bowl games facing Auburn & LSU and now they get stuck in the Gasparilla Bowl facing Marshall. Because of what they had done over the last few years, we felt UCF was overrated for much of the year and their spread record coincided with that thought as they were just 2-7 ATS their last 9 games of the season. Because of who they are, the oddsmakers had to set the lines a bit higher than they should have and UCF was unable to cover the inflated numbers. That’s what we have here. Should they be a huge favorite in a bowl game they probably don’t even want to be in? No. The Knights are definitely the superior team but Marshall is no slouch. Marshall returned a number of key players from a team that went 9-4 last year and had high expectations. They also have 30 kids on their roster from Florida so they will be extremely motivated to play well here in Tampa vs a top notch team. They started slow losing 3 of their first 5 games but the Herd closed the season winning 6 of their final 7. The Herd beat 5 of the 8 bowl teams they’ve faced this season. Their defense is solid allowing only 362 YPG and just 3.7 YPC on the ground. On offense Marshall will run the ball and try and control the clock keeping UCF’s fast paced offense on the sidelines. We think they can do just that vs a Knight defense that allowed over 170 yards rushing in 5 of their final 9 games. The Herd can throw it if need with mobile QB Isaiah Green who threw for 2,200 yards on the season. UCF relies heavily on the pass as they put it in the air 426 times this season which ranks them on the top 30. The weather could be a big factor in slowing down their aerial attack as 20 MPH winds are in the forecast. Marshall head coach Doc Holliday has been a fantastic bowl coach with a PERFECT 6-0 SU and ATS record. That includes an easy win here at the Gasparilla Bowl last year beating USF 38-20. Dating back to 1997, Marshall is an amazing 12-1 SU in bowl games. Will they win this one? Probably not but we expect them to battle and keep it within this huge pointspread.

ASA Play on: LA Lakers -3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30PM ET – We typically like playing on teams in their first game when a superstar is sitting out. Veteran or even young guys that are bench players get a rare start or extended minutes and typically rise to the challenge. We have no problem with LeBron sitting out for load management, err…a sore rib cage as they still have a top five player in the league that will get more touches. Anthony Davis is one of just a few players in the entire NBA that can carry a team himself and a guy that can get 50 on any given night. The Lakers also get Kyle Kuzma back in the lineup so don’t expect a scoring drop-off here. Add in a veteran PG like Rondo and we don’t expect the Lakers to suffer from not having LBJ in the lineup. Don’t get me wrong, LeBron’s absence would be felt over time, but not in today’s game. The Lakers have the 4th best home differential in the NBA at +11.8PPG and have won 6 of their last seven at home. Denver is just 6-5 SU on the road this year and have an offense that ranks 18th in offensive efficiency at 1.084 points per possession compared to the Lakers 6th ranked OEFF at 1.117PPP. Defensively these two teams are essentially even with the 2nd and 3rd ranked defensive efficiency units. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five at home against the Nuggets and will get a win here tonight even without Bron.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona +9.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Seahawks continue to win but also continue to play close games with 10 of their 11 wins coming by 8 points or less.  Their miniscule +26 point differential means they have an average winning margin of +2 PPG.  Seattle’s injuries are also mounting and we think this will be a very tough game for Seattle.  Starting DE Clowney and starting safety Diggs are both doubtful.  Starting DT Woods has also just been suspended for 4 games for violating the league’s PED policy.  The Seahawk defense ranks 27th overall and 30th in pass defense and we have no doubt that Arizona will be able to score points and keep up in this one.  The Cards picked up some confidence last week putting up 38 points vs Cleveland in a win with QB Murray hitting 9 different receivers for receptions.  Seattle won the first meeting but the stats were almost identical with each team running 55 offensive snaps and the Seahawks outgaining the Cards by just 19 yards.  Arizona is now 4-1-1 ATS this year as a road dog while Seattle is just 4-2 SU at home this year with their wins coming by 1, 1, 6 in OT, and 7 points.  Their once vaunted home field advantage has dissipated as the Seahawks are just 10-11-1 ATS their last 22 home tilts.  Seattle has a massive game with San Francisco so while a win is needed, a look ahead is not out of the question.  This NFC West division game stays close

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida International Panthers (+) over Arkansas State Red Wolves, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET: Game #213

We feel the wrong team is favored in this one. Our power rating have FIU as a 1-point favorite here and they are getting nearly a FG. Arkansas State comes in with a 7-5 record and one of the worst defenses in America. They rank 127th nationally (out of 130 teams) in total defense allowing 481 YPG and 122nd in rush defense allowing 224 YPG. Versus bowl teams this season ASU was just 1-4 SU and they were outgained by 177 YPG and outscored by 18 PPG in those games. Offensively they are a very pass heavy team ranking 14th nationally in passing yards, however this looks like a bad match up for them. FIU’s defense allows only 178 YPG through the air (6th nationally) and if they can slow down the Red Wolves through the air, they are not a great rushing team averaging only 3.6 YPC. FIU is much more balanced on offense and we anticipate them running very well on this porous Arkansas State defense. If they can control the ground game, they should win this game. FIU head coach Butch Davis (formerly the head coach at Miami FL & North Carolina) is a fantastic bowl coach. He has a 7-2 ATS record in bowl games and last year he led the Panthers to a 35-32 win over a very solid Toledo team as a 7-point dog. He did so without his starting QB James Morgan who was unable to play in that game and is excited to get his opportunity this year vs ASU. The Red Wolves head coach Blake Anderson is on the other end of the spectrum with just a 1-4 SU & ATS bowl record. We’ll take the better coach, better running game, and better defense as an underdog here.

ASA PLAY ON 9* SMU Mustangs (+) over Florida Atlantic Owls, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #211

With this game being played at FAU Stadium and with the Owls having won 6 straight games and 10 of their last 11 it may seem surprising to see SMU favored in this game. Of course you know what that usually means. Lay the points here! The Mustangs are favored with good reason. For one thing Florida Atlantic is without their head coach as Kiffin is headed to Southern Miss to take over the reins here. That means defensive coordinator Spencer is the interim head coach for this game. Spencer would have had his hands full even if he was only the DC in this one. The Mustangs have averaged 43 points per game this season and have a very balanced attack with averaging 186 rushing yards per game and 309 passing yards per game on the season. The Owls were only a dog two times this season and they lost both of those games. The other game Florida Atlantic lost was as a 4-point favorite against Marshall. The point is that FAU struggled at times when stepping up in class in terms of the opposition. SMU played 4 games this season in which their line ranged from +4.5 to -4.5 and they won 3 of the 4 both SU and ATS. The Mustangs D did pile up 50 sacks this season. By comparison the Owls had only 34 sacks on the year. SMU has the coaching edge considering the Owls situation here. Also, the Mustangs played the tougher schedule and we give them the edge in the trenches (offensive line and defensive line) in this match-up. SMU went 4-0 SU and ATS in non-conference games this season. The Owls are 1-8 SU the last 9 times they have been an underdog. They have faced an American Athletic Conference opponents 3 times the last 3 seasons (including this year) and are 0-3 SU and ATS in those games. As we noted at the top of this write-up, there is a reason SMU is favored on the road in this one. Lay it! Bet the Mustangs in afternoon Boca Raton Bowl action Saturday.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Butler -2 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET

Two in-state heavyweights to at it on a neutral court in Indianapolis today.  While it’s obviously a big game for Purdue, we feel it’s even bigger for Butler as they are often overlooked and get to face off against their in-state big brother.  Both teams are fantastic defensively which is why the total on this game sits below 120.  However, the Bulldogs are the better shooting team hitting almost 50% of their shots (18th nationally) while Purdue ranks close to 200th in that same category.  The Bulldogs have only one loss on the season and that was by a single point @ Baylor who ranks 10th in Ken Pom’s power ratings.  They already have 5 outstanding wins over Florida, Stanford, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Minnesota, all ranked in the top 100.  The Boilers already have losses vs Marquette, Florida State, Nebraska, and Texas and Butler ranks higher than all 4 of those teams (11th in the power rankings).  The one thing that Purdue has the advantage is rebounding but that will be tempered today as starting center, 7’3 Matt Haarms, looks like he will sit with a concussion.  Haarms is also their 2nd leading scorer.  We definitely like Butler to win today and with the line sitting at just -2 we like the Bulldogs.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Buffalo Bulls (-) over Charlotte 49ers, Friday at 2 PM ET: Game #201

Windy conditions expected in Nassau for the Bahamas Bowl.  As a result, the running game is going to be the key factor in determining the winner of this game as the wind will be a challenge for the passing attack.  That being said, while both teams do run the ball well, the run defense of the Bulls definitely holds the edge over the run defense of the 49ers.  Buffalo is running for 254.3 yards per game this season while Charlotte is running for 213.3 yards per game this season.  While there is a difference there in favor of Buffalo, the run defense variance is where you really see an edge for the Bulls.  The 49ers are allowing 190.8 yards per game on the ground this season while the Bulls are allowing only 95.3 rushing yards per game on the season!  Buffalo has been to recent bowls, including last season, but has come up empty and certainly has extra motivation here as a result.  For Charlotte, on the other hand, it could be a case of just being happy to be here.  This the first ever bowl for the Niners.  Even though the 49ers finished the season on a 5-game winning streak, 4 of the teams they beat finished the season with a losing record.  Charlotte, earlier in the season, had a stretch where they faced 4 teams that are bowl teams and they lost all 4 games by a combined margin of 101 points!  The Bulls finished the season winning 5 of their last 6 games and faced multiple bowl teams during this stretch.  With the better defense and the better ground game, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting a Bulls win by double digits in this one.  Lay the points with Buffalo in what should be a blowout in afternoon action

ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Houston Rockets, 9:35PM ET – We are on the Clippers here minus the points in this Western Conference showdown. Clearly these are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA ranking 3rd (Houston) in offensive efficiency at 1.114 points per possession while the Clippers are 7th at 1.114PPP. The Rockets get their points by shooting over 45 3-pointers per game (1st) while the balanced Clippers get 49PPG in the paint (7th). Defensively is where these two teams are drastically different with the Clippers holding the 7th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.043PPP compared to the Rockets 16th ranked DEFF allowing 1.092PPP. Los Angeles holds opponents to 34.2% shooting from beyond the arc which is 11th best in the NBA. Houston is 22nd in the NBA at points allowed in the paint per game so you can see the Clippers have several key advantages. This will be the third meeting of the season as the home team has won both thus far. Houston has played the much easier schedule, yet the Clippers have the better overall statistics. The Clippers have covered 4 in a row at home as a chalk, 5-0 after tonight.  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Coastal Carolina -4.5 over Troy, Thursday at 7 PM ET

We head to the Sun Belt conference for our next college basketball winner and will play on the visiting Chanticleer’s of Coastal Carolina. We got to the metrics for support on this wager as our math model has them projected to win by 12-points. Troy is ranked 316th out of 353 schools by our standards and they’ve played one of the softest schedules in all of college basketball (332nd). Despite playing a tougher schedule Coastal Carolina is better in offensive efficiency AND defensive efficiency ratings and laying a marginal number here.  C of C will take advantage on the offensive end of the floor with a team that shoots 42.15% from beyond the arc which ranks them 6th in D1 hoops. Troy does not defend the 3-point line well at all allowing opponents to hit 36.82% which ranks them 289th. The porous Trojans defense gives up 70PPG which is 207th in the nation while Coastal averages 84.2PPG which is 8th best. Those numbers are significant as Troy is 0-5 SU this season when allowing at least 72 points in a game this season. You can bet C of C is getting to 72+. This game will have more meaning than usual for the Chanticleer’s as their last game of the season a year ago was a loss to Troy by 7-points on their home court. The Trojans haven’t bounced back off a loss this year with an 0-4 ATS run in that situation while C of C on 4-0 spread run on the road against a team with a winning home record. Coastal Carolina by 12-points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON ETSU +9.5 over LSU, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a very dangerous game for this young LSU team (327th nationally in experience) that returns only 2 of their top 6 players from last season.  The Tigers are coming off 3 blowout wins at home vs poor competition so they may come in a bit overconfident so to speak.  They haven’t played a game in 11 days which can ruin a team’s rhythm.  There is also a strong possibility this LSU team is peaking ahead to a huge game @ USC this Saturday, their first true road game of the season.  That would be a mistake.  ETSU is a very good team that starts all upperclassmen.  The Buccaneers return all 5 starters from a team that went 24-10 last year.  Head coach Steve Forbes is one of the best in the business although it goes unrecognized by most.  In his 4 years at the helm for ETSU Forbes has never won fewer than 24 games and his career record here is 109-41.  They are 9-2 on the year and gave Kansas all they could handle in Lawrence this year losing by 12 in what was a 6-point game with under 5:00 remaining.  They are a solid shooting team (47% overall and 37% from deep) that knows how to get it done on the road winning 20 of their last 29 true road games.  LSU has played a very easy schedule to date facing only 3 top 100 teams.  They are 1-2 in those games with a 13-point win over Delaware and losses to Utah State and VCU.  Now they face their 4th top 100 team and we think ETSU will give them all they can handle.  This game should be tight and we take the points.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Buffalo -8 over Canisius, Wed at 7 PM ET

Even though these two teams reside in different conferences it’s still a great Buffalo city rivalry as the two schools are separated by just 7 miles. Buffalo has one key advantage in this matchup and it will be the difference here. Buffalo holds a significant rebounding edge, especially on the offensive end where they rank 38th in the nation in second chance baskets. If you know anything about basketball, it’s a demoralizing factor when you give up offensive rebounds and put backs and Canisius should know that all to well. The Griffins rate 262nd when it comes to allowing second chance scoring opportunities to opponents. These two teams have very similar defensive efficiency ratings with the Bulls checking in at the 203rd spot while the Griffins are 213th. On the offensive end of the floor the Bulls are 161st in efficiency ratings, the Griffins are 265th. Looking solely at the raw data we are betting on the better offensive team and the defensive team without even factoring in the schedule played to date. Buffalo has played the 127th rated schedule while Canisius has played the 349th yet have better numbers. The situation couldn’t be any better as Buffalo pulled a huge upset two games ago in beating DePaul, then were upset at home as a 16-point favorite to Army meaning they’ll be ready to play here. Recently the Bulls were an 8-point home favorite against William and Mary who rates far superior to Canisius and beat them by 11-points. Last season when these same two teams met in Canisius the Bulls were favored by 15-points and are now laying just 8 at home this season. The fast-paced Bulls will have no problem scoring enough points to win this game by 10 or more points. 

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Stony Brook +17 over Virginia, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET

The Cavs coming off their National Championship run last season are a bit overrated this year.  They lost a ton of talent off that team and they are still finding their way in 2019.  They are just 3-6 ATS this season and offense has been a huge problem.  They have topped 61 points just ONCE the entire season and that was when the put up 65 points vs James Madison who ranks 312th nationally in defensive efficiency.  UVA is shooting just 41% on the season (239th nationally) and they are even worse from beyond the arc making only 28% (311th in the nation).  That will be an issue tonight vs a solid Stony Brook defense that plays a lot of 2-3 and 1-2-2 zone as they try to force teams to beat them from the outside.  The Seawolves are very good defensively as well holding their opponents to only 38% on the season which ranks them 40th in the country.  Unlike Virginia, Stony Brook is a very solid 3-point shooting team ranking 68th nationally which is how teams can beat or stay close to UVA.  The Caves opponents this year are getting over 45% of their points from beyond the arc so you better be able to shoot from deep vs this team and the Seawolves do just that.  Stony Brook is 7-5 this season but they are experienced with 4 of their top 7 players back from a team that went 24-9 last season.  Both teams like to play at a slow pace (UVA extremely slow and Stony Brook fairly slow) which is why this total is set at only 107.5.  When a very low scoring game is anticipated, limiting possessions, it makes it very tough to cover a big number like this.  The final score based on this pointspread is anticipated to be 62-45.  As we said UVA has topped 61 only once and they face a good defense here so we’d be surprised if they top 60.  That leaves little margin for error as the Seawolves won’t have to score much to cover this number.  Take the points.

ASA 9* PLAY ON: Sacramento Kings -4.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET – Two relatively hot teams square off tonight as the Kings come into the game having won 4 of their last five while the Hornets have won 3 of four. Something must give here, and we think it will be the Kings who sustain their recent success. The Kings are getting healthy with Bagley back in the lineup and Fox expected back tonight. Sacramento’s current winning streak includes victories over quality foes such as Dallas, Houston and OKC. Charlotte can’t say the same thing as their three wins came against the Bulls, Nets and Wizards who are a combined 32-48 SU this season. In their last five games the Kings are shooting over 49% from the field with an average margin of victory of +5PPG. Charlotte is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA and recently have shot under an average of 39% their past five games.  The Kings even have better overall defensive efficiency numbers and have played better on the road than at home this season with an 11-4 ATS record away from home. Lay the points with Sacramento here.

ASA 8* PLAY ON North Texas +17 over Dayton, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

UNT is very undervalued with their 4-6 record.  They have played a very tough schedule (33rd most difficult) with half of their opponents thus far ranking in the top 100.  They began the year ranked 185th in Ken Pom’s rankings and despite their losing record they’ve vaulted 31 spots to 154th.  This is a very experienced team with a number of key players back and a program that has had 4 straight 20+ win seasons.  Now at full strength (a few key players returned as of late including guard Roosevelt Smart who was a starter last year) they are peaking right now.  The Mean Green are 2-2 their last 4 but their losses came by 2 vs Oklahoma, a game they led by 10 in the 2nd half, and by 9 to Utah State, a game they led by 4 midway through the 2nd half.  Both of those teams were top 50 opponents.  Dayton is very good but we have them a bit overvalued right now with their 8-1 record.  The Flyers are off a 30 point win over Drake and they have a big match up on deck vs Colorado in Chicago on Saturday.  If they overlook this UNT team, we think this can be a game.  The Mean Green shoot the 3 ball very well and 41% of their point production comes from beyond the arc (18th nationally).  That plays nicely into Dayton’s weakness defensively as they rank 287th defending the arc.  UNT has had 10 days to get ready for this big game and they are playing well right now.  5 of their 6 losses have come by less than this spread and they’ve covered 4 straight.  We think they can keep this one fairly tight.  Dayton could overlook this one and if they do, they’ll have a battle on their hands.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Indianapolis Colts +9 or 10 over New Orleans Saints, 8:15PM ET - With a greater volume of tickets bet on the Saints tonight we are going to grab the points and the value with the vastly under-rated Colts. New Orleans is one of 9 teams with 10+ wins this season yet their average point differential of +3.7PPG is 7th out of those nine teams. The Saints have enjoyed home cooking down in the Big Easy in the past, but their average margin of victory at home this season is just +2.4PPG. Not to mention, of their five home wins, only one has come by more than tonight’s spread. The Colts differential is +0.1PPG and one of the best differentials for a losing team in the NFL. If it weren’t for three straight 4th quarter collapses (outscored 31-0) this team would be the front runner in the AFC South, instead of fighting for their playoff lives. The Colts are 6-7 SU on the season but only one of those losses has come by more than tonight’s spread, and that was a 14-point loss to the Titans. In that game the score was tied with just over 5 minutes to play when a blocked FG for Tennessee gave them a 24-17 lead, then a late TD sealed the 14-point victory. Comparing the two teams we see similarities in total yards per game: Colts 341YPG to the Saints 369YPG, Colts 133 rushing yards per game to the Saints 108RYPG. The Saints defense is slightly better in total yards allowed per game at 338YPG, while the Colts give up just 345YPG. The Colts are a very competitive underdog when playing a team above .500 as they are 11-2 ATS in that role their last thirteen.  

ASA PLAY ON: Miami Heat -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET – The Grizzlies are expecting starting PG Ja Morant back in the lineup tonight, but he can’t have a big enough impact to cover this spread. The Grizzlies have recently hosted some similar teams to the Heat and were larger home dogs than they are tonight. In late November the Grizz were +7.5 points at home against the Jazz and lost by nine. A few days later the Grizz hosted Indiana and were +9.5 point and lost by seven. In our power ratings the Heat are better than both of those teams and favored by less in this contest. Miami is 8-6 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -2.1PPG but they’ve faced a brutally tough road schedule. When playing similar teams to the Grizz this season the Heat have road wins at: Atlanta (won by 9), Cleveland (+11) and at Chicago by 8-points. Miami is trending in the right direction with wins in four of their last five games and seven of their last nine. Memphis is just 4-11 SU on their home floor with an average loss margin of -5.3PPG which is 5th worst in the NBA. Miami gets a 10-point win here!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Western Illinois +2 over Eastern Illinois, Monday at 8 PM ET

This line opened with EIU favored by 2 points and with a massive 86% of the tickets coming in on that side, the line dropped to -1.5 at many spots.  That says that despite only 14% of the tickets in on WIU, heavy money came in on that side to move the number.  We agree with the move.   Western Illinois is just 2-6 yet they’ve been competitive in all but one game and that was @ Indiana to open the season.  The remainder of their losses were all decided by 7 points or less.  The Leathernecks are playing their best basketball right now.  They are 2-2 over their last 4 games with one loss coming by a single point and the other by 4 points @ Evansville who is 8-3 and won @ Kentucky this year.  Also 3 of those 4 games were on the road.  They haven’t played a home game since November 23rd and they’ve had 10+ days to get ready for this big home revenge game.  They lost 2 games to EIU last year and both went to the wire losing by 2 in OT and by 7.   Four of the five starters for Western in that game are back and they’ve been waiting for this one.  While they’ve been resting and preparing for this game, Eastern Illinois is off 2 huge wins at home vs UWGB last week and vs UW Milwaukee on Saturday.  While we like this EIU team quite a bit this year, this is a tough spot in a quick turnaround situation.  Despite their record, Western Illinois is very solid fundamentally as they rank 5th nationally in turnover percentage, 11th in 3 point shooting percentage, and #1 in FT percentage hitting nearly 89% as a team.  We like WIU to win this one at home so we’ll take the points here. 

ASA 8* PLAY ON Atlanta +12 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Falcons are playing much better than they were early in the season and they are a very dangerous underdog, especially a double digit dog.  The Birds are 3-2 SU their last 5 games and they are averaging 27 PPG during that stretch.  They have faced the division leading Saints twice during that 5 games stretch beating New Orleans on the road 26-9 and then losing 26-18 at home despite outgaining them by 70 yards.  This is the same Saints team that went back and forth last week with the Niners before falling 48-46.  San Fran has now played 3 HUGE games in a row facing 3 division leaders the last 3 weeks (Green Bay, Baltimore, and New Orleans).  They also have to big division games coming up the next 2 weeks vs Seattle and the LA Rams.  If there was ever a letdown spot this is it.  Laying double digits here will be tough especially facing an offense that can score points.  The Niners will have a very tough time pulling away from Atlanta (#7 in the NFL in total offense) and we expect the Falcons to give them all they can handle.  The record says Atlanta is 4-9 but as we mentioned, they are playing much better over the last month and a half and their stats say they are better than their record.  This team has actually outgained their opponents by an average of +10 YPG and they are just -3 PPG on the season.  This is also a spot the 49ers are not accustomed to as they’ve been a double digit favorite just twice in the last 6 years and they have lost both of those games ATS.  San Fran gets a scare here and we’ll take the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON LA Chargers +1.5 over Minnesota, Sunday at 4 PM ET

This line opened Vikings -3 and the vast majority of bets have come in on Minnesota this week (currently 77%) yet the line dropped off the key number of 3 down to -2.5.  That tells us that despite the heavy tickets on the Vikes, the heavy money has come in on the Chargers and we agree LA is the play here.  Let’s not forget this Charger team is much better than their 5-8 record and they were in the AFC Championship game last year with many of the same players on the team this year.  They are +71 YPG on the year and +0.8 YPP.  Their point differential is also +38 on the year which makes them one of only 2 teams with a losing record that is plus in the point differential (Indy is +1).  They have outgained each of their last 5 opponents and all of their 8 losses have come by 7 or less.  They are off a confidence boosting 45-10 win @ Jacksonville last year.  Their last 2 home games they whipped Green Bay 26-11 outgaining the Packers by 258 yards and a 7 point loss vs KC in a game they outgained the Chiefs by 130 yards.  Minnesota is coming off a division win over the Lions and they have a gigantic game vs the Packers on deck.  It is their 2nd trip to the west coast in the last 3 weeks (lost by 7 @ Seattle two weeks ago).  Minnesota has been great at home (6-0 record) but they are just 3-4 on the road with their wins coming against the Giants, Lions, and Cowboys, all losing teams.  While the Chargers are also a losing team, we feel they are the top below .500 team out there and this is a dangerous spot for Minnesota.  We think LA wins this game outright.

ASA 8* PLAY ON New England -10 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Much has been made of the demise of these Patriots but let’s not forget they are still 10-3 with the NFL’s 2nd best point differential at +173.  They are also still fighting for home field advantage as they sit in the #2 spot behind Baltimore.  Their 3 losses have come at the hands of Baltimore, KC, and Houston, all playoff type teams who all sit above .500.  They take a huge step down in competition on Sunday, which is needed after back to back losses, facing a Cincy team that is 1-12.  The Bengals picked up their first win of the season 2 weeks ago at home vs the Jets and then last week they ran 72 offensive plays to just 52 for the Browns and they still lost by 8.  The Pats are 8-0 SU vs teams that are currently below .500 with all but one of those wins coming by at least 7 points.  Their average score in those 8 games was Patriots 31 to 8.  New England has struggled a bit on offense the last few weeks (although they did outgain the Texans by 172 yards in that loss 2 weeks ago) but we expect them to get back to scoring points here vs a Bengal defense that ranks 31st in total defense and dead last in YPP allowed.  After allowing just 23 points to a potent KC offense last week, we fully expect the Patriot defense to shut down a Cincy offense that ranks 31st in scoring (15 PPG) and has scored 17 points or less in 9 games this year.  Facing the #1 scoring defense (Pats allow 13 PPG) won’t do them any favors here.  As we mentioned, New England is coming of back to back losses which is just the 11th time since 2002 that has happened.  They are 10-0 SU (8-2 ATS) coming off those 2 losses and we expect a big win here.  Pats cover here with a double digit win.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Seattle -6 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

After 6 straight wins, the Seahawks finally had a poor game last Sunday losing 28-12 at the LA Rams.  Seattle still controls their own destiny in the NFC West and we expect them to bounce back and play very well in this game.  Carolina, on the other hand, was eliminated from playoff contention last week and we don’t see any fight in this team whatsoever.  They have lost 5 straight games and 3 of those 5 setbacks have come vs teams that have already been eliminated from the playoffs.  Their head coach Ron Rivera was fired leading into last week’s game @ Atlanta and many times you’ll see a team rally for at least one game in this situation.  It didn’t happen as they were blasted 40-20 @ Atlanta allowing 460 yards of offense in the process.  That signals this team is done.  If they didn’t rise up in that spot, now that they are out of the playoffs, we don’t see it happening here.  Also keep in mind that during their 5 game losing streak they played 2 home games vs Atlanta (who has 4 wins) and lost by 24 and vs Washington (who has 3 wins) and lost by 8.  Panther QB Kyle Allen looked very good in his first 6 starts (5-1 record) but defenses have figured him out and he has 7 TD passes and 8 interceptions during this 5 game losing streak.  It looks like he will also be without one if his top offensive weapons as TE Greg Olsen has a concussion and has yet to be cleared for Sunday.  The Panther defense is 29th at stopping the run and has allowed a league high 24 TD’s on the ground.  Seattle is 3rd in the NFL in rushing so they should dominate the ground game and the Panther defense will wear down on the 2nd half.  Not to mention we have a HUGE edge at the QB position as well with Russell Wilson having an MVP type season.  Seattle wins and covers here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks -8 vs. Miami Heat, 8:30PM ET

The Hear will have a hard time getting back up for this game after their marquee game against the Lakers last night at home. Miami hasn’t won a game this season when playing without rest and have lost those games by an average of 17PPG. The Heat are basically an ‘average’ team on the road with a 7-6 SU record and an average differential of -2.6PPG (16th in the NBA). Dallas is rested and lost their most recent home game so expect a focused effort here. The Mavs have the second-best average home point differential in the league at +9.1PPG and are the most efficient offense in the league at home. The Mavericks have covered 9 of their last ten as a favorite while Miami comes into this game 0-5 ATS their last five when playing without rest. Lay the points.

ASA 8* PLAY ON BYU +1.5 over Utah State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET

BYU is finally at full strength and clicking on all cylinders right now.  Their best player, Yoeli Childs, was suspended for the first 9 games this season after declaring for the NBA draft last year and then changing his mind.  He’s been back for 3 games now and he’s rounding into form with 56 points in 34 rebounds in those 3 games.  His first game back was an OT loss at Utah in a game BYU blew a 16-point second half lead.  Since that they’ve played UNLV and Nevada and won both of those games by 33 points!  They’ve beaten Utah State 7 straight years including 95-80 last season.   We’d argue that BYU is much improved this year returning most of the key cogs from last year’s team plus adding transfer guard Jake Toolson who was the WAC Player of the year last season at Utah Valley before coming to BYU.  Even when they weren’t at full strength this team was playing pretty well.  They are 8-4 on the year with 2 of their losses coming on the road in OT vs Boise St and Utah, and the other 2 vs Kansas & San Diego State who have combined for an 18-1 record.  Utah State is 7-1 on the year but they’ve faced an easy schedule to date (322nd strength of schedule).  They’ve played only 2 teams in the top 100 coming from 16 points down in the 2nd half to beat LSU by 2 on a neutral court and losing by 8 vs St Marys.  Over half of their 11 opponents (7) are currently ranked lower than 200.  BYU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation (21st eFG% and 22nd 3-point %) and they are better than their 8-4 record.  This game is being played @ Salt Lake City so no home court value either way.  Having not played a top 100 team since November 20th, USU takes a huge step up here and BYU is playing too well right now.  Take the Cougars.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Wichita State -4.5 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

The Shockers have been waiting on this one.  They won 22 games last season, however their worst loss of the year by far was their 80-48 setback @ Oklahoma.  It was a fairly close game at half, but in the 2nd half Wichita was simply terrible.  They shot just 24% from the field and 19% from beyond the arc.  They were absolutely embarrassed in their biggest game of the year vs the in state big boy.  We expect the Shockers to play very well in this game.  This game is being played at In Trust Arena in Wichita which is not their true home court, but they’ll still have a home court advantage in this game.  State has some solid momentum here coming off a huge road win @ Oklahoma State last Sunday.  They dominated a very solid OSU team 80-61 on their own court crushing them on the boards 42 to 31.  Wichita has just one loss on the season and that was vs a very good West Virginia team on a neutral court.  Seven of their eight wins have come by at least 9 points and they’ve been fantastic defensively ranking 11th nationally in defensive efficiency.  OU is 7-1 on the season but they’ve only played one true road game.  That was @ North Texas, who currently has a 4-6 record, and the Sooners squeaked out an 82-80 win.  It was a game they led 4-2 early and then never lead again until less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game.  They are not a very good rebounding team which will create problems vs Wichita and they aren’t a good 3-point shooting team (31%).  That means they have to score inside the arc to be successful and Wichita has the 16th best 2-point defense in America allowing just 41% shooting.  The Sooners lost 4 of their top 7 players from last year and this is simply a much bigger deal for the Shockers who are considered the little brother.   We feel  Wichita is the better team right now and with the extra motivation we’ll lay the small number.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Old Dominion +14 over Illinois, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

We feel this is a very dangerous game for the Illini.  They just beat Michigan here on Wednesday in what was their biggest win in years.  Now they face an undervalued Old Dominion team that we feel is better than their record.  After this, Illinois plays a big rivalry game vs Mizzou so this is an absolute flat spot.  ODU is just 3-7 on the year but they have had a full week off now to rest & regroup after playing 5 games away from home in the span of 13 days.  We realize this is also a road game but having a full week to get ready is something they haven’t had the luxury of taking advantage of.  This is a program that is used to winning with 25 or more wins in 4 of the last 5 seasons (26-9 last year).  They return 6 of the 9 players that played double digit minutes in their NCAA tourney loss last year vs Purdue.  ODU head coach Jeff Jones has never had a losing season since taking over the Monarchs back in 2014 (140-67 @ ODU entering this season).  So while they’ve gotten off to a slow start, this team will be better than what they’ve looked like thus far.  They also match up quite well with Illinois.  The Illini are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation giving them constant 2nd and 3rd scoring chances.  The Monarchs have a big front line that can match the Illini and they are the 23rd best defensive rebounding team in the country which will limit the 2nd opportunities.  The Monarchs also play very good defense ranking 60th nationally in defensive efficiency.  They’ve allowed only 1 of their 10 opponents to reach 70 points.  The Monarchs will make this game a slow paced grinder and while we think Illinois will win, it’s not going to be as easy as this number suggests.  ODU stays within the number here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Michigan -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 12PM ET

Great spot for the Wolverines here.  They are coming off a loss @ Illinois on Wednesday and they are now back at home where they are 5-0 winning by an average margin of 88 to 69.  They’ve played an extremely tough schedule (10th most difficult in the nation so far) and they’ve already beaten 5 top 60 teams including Gonzaga, North Carolina, Iowa, Iowa State, and Creighton.  Their only losses on the season were @ Illinois and @ Louisville.  They play host to the Ducks here in what will be Oregon’s first true road game of the season.  They’ve played a few neutral site games including losses to North Carolina & Gonzaga in the Bahamas, the same 2 teams Michigan beat in that tourney.  The Wolverines are shooting 52% at home this year including 41% from beyond the arc.  That gives Michigan is huge advantage here as they are obviously comfortable playing and shooting at home facing a team that has yet to venture onto an opponent’s home court.  The Ducks have been a solid shooting team but in their 3 neutral site games they shot just 40% from the field and lost 2 of those games as we mentioned above.  Defensively Michigan should have the edge as well ranking 16th nationally in defensive efficiency (vs a very tough schedule) compared to Oregon’s 52nd in that same category.  It’s tough to win on the road period, much less vs a top notch opponent that will be extra motivated coming of a loss.  Oregon has won 20+ games in each of the last 2 seasons yet they are just 9-14 SU on the road.  We like Michigan in this spot.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +7 @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET – The Suns were over-priced early on with surprise success by winning 7 straight games to start the season. Now that teams are starting to figure out the Suns the wins haven’t come as easily with a 4-7 SU record their last eleven games. We played on the Suns the other day when they were a sizeable underdog at Houston (and won) but now we fade them as a mid-range favorite. Phoenix has allowed their last five goes to shoot an average of 49% from the field while giving up over 117PPG. The Grizzlies got a win in their last game at Golden State when starting rookie PG Ja Morant was back in uniform. Memphis also got a double-double from Valnciunas along with 32 combined points from Brooks and Jackson Jr. The last time the Phoenix Suns were laying a number like this one at home they lost outright to the Washington Wizards. Memphis is a much better team with Morant on the floor and they’ll keep this game close tonight.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Winthrop +12 over TCU, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET

Winthrop comes in with a 4-5 record but they have played one of the tougher schedules in the nation (45th ranked SOS) and they’ve been very competitive.  4 of their 5 losses have come by 3 points or less and their other loss was by 13 points @ Duke.  In that game the Blue Devils were +10 made FT’s and shot 58% from beyond the arc to just 28% for Winthrop and it was STILL a competitive game.  Duke led by 7 at half and it was still a 7 point game with just over 3:00 minutes remaining.  In their 4 games vs top 130 teams, the Eagles beat St Mary’s on the road, lost @ Fresno by 3, lost at East Tennessee State by 3 and lost @ Duke by 13.  They are a dangerous team because they make 3’s at 9.3 per game (45th nationally) and tonight they face a TCU defense that ranks 332nd in 3-point percentage allowed at 39.2%.  The Frogs also allow their opponents to score 35% of their points from beyond the arc which is the 65th most in the nation.  The Frogs have played only 2 top 100 teams and lost to both (Clemson on a neutral site and USC at home).  Their most recent game vs USC on Friday the Frogs rallied from an 18 point second half deficit only to still lose by 2.  A lot of physical and mental energy was used in that come back and we expect them to be flat vs an opponent they may not get the motor going.  That would be a mistake.  Beyond their 2 losses, TCU has played only 2 other teams ranked between 100 & 200 beating UC Irvine at home by 1 & Illinois State at home by 12 which was their largest lead of the game (TCU led by just 6 with less than 4:00 remaining).  Winthrop is one of the better mid major programs (6 straight winning seasons) and they will be ready here as they have been all season vs big conference opponents.  They are rested as they’ve played only 1 game since December 1st and if TCU comes in flat at all, they could be in trouble.  Take the 12 points as we expect a tight game here.

ASA PLAY ON: NY Knicks +9 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET – The Knicks have one of the worst records in the NBA but they’ve clearly underachieved based on the marginal talent on the roster. New York has a solid core of vets with Randle, Gibson, Morris and younger talent in Barrett, Ntilikina Portis and Payton. The players did not buy in with former head coach Fitzdale’s system and should relate to new coach Mike Miller. New York played well in a 1-point loss to Indiana in Miller’s first game and should continue to get better. Considering the change, we predict for the Knicks going forward this line is not what it should be. New York was just a +9.5-point underdog in Toronto who is better than this Portland team. Speaking of underachieving, let’s talk about the 9-15 SU Blazers. Last season the Blazers won 53 games in the regular season with the 7th best average scoring differential in the NBA at +4.2PPG. Portland had the 3rd best average home differential last year at +8.4PPG which won’t cover tonight’s spread. Portland is just 4-6 SU at home this season with a negative average differential of -1.3PPG. The Blazers have been 9 or more-point home chalks twice this season and they barely covered in overtime against the Hawks and lost outright to the Warriors. Considering the defense been has been horrible their last five games it’s an easy call to take the points and the Knicks here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Winnipeg Jets Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Detroit Red Wings, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Red Wings are having a horrible season and now have lost 11 straight games.  That being said, the biggest fear in playing the Jets here is that they might overlook Detroit.  However, that is not going to happen in this case because this is the front end of a home and home set between these clubs.  Knowing their next game is on the road, Winnipeg (on a 6-1-1 run as a host) wants to make sure they take advantage of home ice here.  Knowing their next game is against the Red Wings, the Jets will of course be fully focused on Detroit in this one.  That is bad news for the Red Wings and that is a key reason as to why Winnipeg is a -250 money line favorite in this match-up.  That price is very high with good reason and the value with this match-up, as a result, is the puck line!  The Jets at -1.5 goals are priced close to break even or at -105.  This is a great value considering that each of the Red Wings last 7 games have been losses by a margin of 2 or more goals.  In fact, those 7 defeats have come by a an average margin of 3.6 goals per game.  The Jets most recent win came by just a single goal but their three preceding wins all came by 3 or more goals.  Per our computer math model, this will be another win by a multiple-goal margin for the Jets as the Red Wings suffer a 12th straight loss - and 8th straight defeat by 2 or more goals.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and laying a very fair price, currently in -105 range) with Winnipeg is the value play here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Hofstra -4 over Stony Brook, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

Hofstra was 27-8 last year and while they lost leading scorer Justin Wright-Foreman they do return a number of key players from last season including 3 starters and their top reserve.  They have started slower than they expected with a 6-4 record, however they have played only 3 home games on the season.  In fact, their last home game was nearly a month ago on November 15th.  They have won 20 of their last 22 home games and they are coming off an embarrassing 73-45 loss @ St Bonnies on Saturday so we expect a big effort here.  Stony Brook comes in with a 7-3 record but 6 of their wins have come against teams ranked 235th or lower.  Their lone decent win came against North Dakota State (ranked 157th) winning by 7 on a neutral court.  The Seawolves have also been very shaky on the road this year where they are 2-2 with their wins coming vs Wagner (ranked 330th) by 3 points in OT and vs Texas A&M Corpus Christie (ranked 305th) by 5 points.  They are shooting just 39% from the field in those 4 road games.  Hofstra is shooting over 47% in their 3 home games while averaging 85 PPG.  They have 9 days off after this so absolutely no look ahead, plus they’ve been away from home for a month as we mentioned.  Stony Brook, on the other hand, is coming off 2 easy wins at home vs weaker competition and they have a huge game on deck with Providence this weekend.  Getting a very solid Hofstra team at home in this spot with a manageable number is very nice value.

ASA 10* PLAY ON NY Giants +105 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

We anticipate the Giants rallying around QB Eli Manning who steps in for his first start since September 15th.  He had fairly solid numbers in those 2 starts with 556 yards passing, 63% completion rate (vs Cowboys and Bills).  The organization, however, was ready to move on and see what Daniel Jones could do.  Jones looked decent early but he has now lost 8 in a row (2-6 ATS) as defenses have figured him out.  He’s also been a turnover machine with 21 giveaways in his 11 games.  Manning will be an upgrade tonight as he is rested and ready to go.  The Eagles are way too inconsistent to be laying double digits in this game.  They have lost 3 in a row to drop to 5-7, including a 37-31 setback @ Miami last week.  The Eagles have been outgained in 6 of their last 9 games and they’ve been held to 22 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games.  Those numbers make it tough to see them as nearly a 10 point favorite here.  This is also a division game which we feel favors the big dog here.  Looking at Philly’s last 18 wins over NY, only 6 have come by more than 10 points.  Take the points here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

This line opened with the Seahawks favored by -2.5 and has dropped despite nearly 70% of the tickets coming in on Seattle.  We agree with the move and like the Rams here.  Seattle is on a short week coming off a 37-30 home win over Minnesota.   Seattle is now 9-1 SU this year in one score games so they are far from a dominant team despite their 10-2 record.  In fact, if you line these two teams up on a point differential and YPG differential basis, they are almost identical despite the 3 game difference in the standings.  The Rams are +33 points on the season and +43 YPG on the year while the Seahawks are +36 PPG and +21 YPG on the season.  The Rams have a HUGE edge defensively allowing just 4.9 YPP (4th in the NFL) to Seattle’s 5.8 YPP allowed (24th in the NFL).  Seattle has a slight edge offensively (5.9 YPP to 5.8 YPP) but the Rams seemed to get their momentum back offensively last week putting up a season high 550 yards @ Arizona.  These two met earlier this year and the Rams were +2 in that game @ Seattle and now the spread is in the same neighborhood at home.  The gives us value on LA here.  IN that first meeting the Rams outgained Seattle putting up 477 yards but missed a FG as time expired in the 30-29 loss.  LA has outgained 10 of their 12 opponents and they are better than their record.  They are also 11-4 SU at home in division games since Sean McVay took over as head coach.  This is a much bigger game for the Rams who are fighting for their playoff lives currently 1 game out of the final wildcard spot.  We like the Rams to win this game.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

This line just a few weeks ago would have had Oakland favored and now, because of recent results, they are getting a full FG at home.  The Raiders won 3 consecutive home games in beginning in early November before taking the road and losing @ NY Jets & @ KC the last 2 weeks.  Last week’s 40-9 loss was extremely misleading as Oakland actually outgained the Chiefs by 73 yards (5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP) and held the potent KC offense to less than 300 yards of total offense.  Three first half turnovers led to 14 KC points and put Oakland in a quick 21-0 hole which they couldn’t climb out of.  They catch an overvalued Tennessee team coming off a huge division win @ Indy last Sunday.  The Titans were outgained by the Colts and the game swung on a blocked FG returned for a TD with the game tied at 17-17.  Tennessee has won 5 of their last 6 but they’ve been outgained in half of those games (3).  Because of the Titan’s run, we are getting solid value here.  Just a few weeks ago Tennessee was +3.5 @ Carolina who is rated almost dead even with Oakland in our power ratings and now the Titans are laying a full FG.  Both teams are fighting for the playoffs and only one game separates them with Oakland at 6-6 and Tennessee at 7-5.  The fact is Oakland has been very good at home this year with a 5-1 record and their only loss here coming vs Kansas City.  They catch the Titans in a perfect sandwich spot off a huge division road win, on the road for the 2nd straight week and a game with division leader Houston on deck.  We like the Raiders to win this one outright so we’ll take the points.

(FIRST HALF LINE) ASA PLAY ON 9* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) over Wisconsin Badgers, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #120 (FIRST HALF LINE)

NOTE - Play FIRST HALF LINE if you can but, of course, if you can not then play this on the full game line. - We’ve released 3 first half bets this season and won all 3 and expect another here. We look for OSU to come out and jump on Wisconsin in this game. They learned their lesson in their first match up when the Badgers tried to turn the game into a grinder with 17 rushing attempts in 26 first half plays. They were able to stick to that game plan because OSU struggled on offense early and had to punt on their first 3 possessions. Even with the Buckeyes not playing great offensively in the first half, they still led 10-0 at half which would cover this number. After their slow start the Buckeye offense figured out the Wisconsin defense ripping off 38 points in the final 37:00 minutes of game time. They scored points on 6 of their final 8 possessions including 5 TD’s. On their last possession they were moving the ball again but ended the game taking knee at Wisconsin’s 30-yard line and we have no doubt they would have scored again if time warranted. The Badgers only points in that game came on a TD on a 30-yard drive following a blocked punt. Now we do expect UW to have more success offensively in this game, we also believe OSU will get off to a quick lead in this game and never look back. No slow start here for the Bucks in perfect conditions @ Indy. Remember, their lone meeting was @ OSU in windy conditions. That would favor Wisconsin but ideal conditions favor OSU’s speed on offense for sure. The Buckeyes have jumped on teams early all season. Their lowest margin at half this season was +10 vs Wisconsin and we gave you some thoughts on why that happened. They have outscored their opponents 367 to 57 in the first half this year for an average margin of +26 points at the break. We like OSU in the game a bit but have our reservations about Wisconsin scoring some points in the 2nd half after the Bucks build up a solid lead and that always opens a back door cover possibility. We don’t have to worry about OSU taking their foot of the gas in the first half and cover 8.5 points seems probable. Ohio State on the first half line is our play.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Wisconsin (pick-em) over Indiana, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

Huge value with Wisconsin here in our opinion.  It this game was played 2 weeks ago, Wisconsin is favored by 3 to 4 points.  Now after a few losses, we’re getting them at an even game at home.  This becomes a huge home game for the Badgers who have lost 3 in a row to Richmond, New Mexico, and NC State, all top 100 teams away from home (or neutral).  They shot absolutely horribly in those 3 losses (2 in NY and 1 @ NC State) and now that they are back in the Kohl Center we expect a much better shooting performance.  They made less than 20% of their 3 pointers combined in those 3 losses but they are hitting 37% behind the arc and averaging 75 PPG at home this year.  That includes a 16 point win over Marquette, the highest rated team they’ve faced this season.  Indiana is undefeated on the year but they have yet to play a road game, not even a neutral site game.  They have played only 2 top 100 teams on the season and their current strength of schedule ranks 338th out of 351 teams.  The Hoosiers are solid but they are a young team (2 freshmen starters) that we expect to struggle in their first road game.  The Badgers have DOMINATED this series winning 19 of the last 22 meetings with IU’s only wins coming by 1, 2, and 2 points.  Wisconsin will be in desperation mode at home after 3 straight losses and all they have to do is win this game to cover.  Take the Badgers.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over Baylor Bears, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #110

Oklahoma traveled to Baylor just a few weeks ago and got down 28-3 in the game. The Sooners were down 31-10 at half and came out in the 2nd half and outscored the Bears 24-0 and rolled up over 300 yards of offense. The 34-31 come from behind win has prompted bettors to side with Baylor here (65% of the tickets on the Bears) as they expect another close game. Not us. The fact is OU dominated that game on the road. They outgained Baylor by 218 yards and had 16 more first downs. They also had a 41:00 to 19:00 minute time of possession edge. OU gifted Baylor 14 points in the first half with 2 turnovers that led to short TD drives of 9 and 27 yards for the Bears. The Baylor defense simply couldn’t stop or even remotely slow down the Sooner offense in the 2nd half. They won’t here either in perfect conditions on a neutral field in Dallas. The Oklahoma defense, on the other hand, is peaking right now. Starting with their 2nd half @ Baylor, the OU defense has allowed just 3 offensive TD’s in the last 10 quarters of football. They have outgained their last 3 opponents (Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma St) by a combined 640 yards! The Sooners have outgained EVERY opponent this year (+230 YPG) while Baylor has actually been outgained in 3 of their last 4 games (Kansas was only team they outgained in that stretch). Baylor had their shot at beating OU and blew it. That crushing loss and the way it went down has to linger into this game. From a confidence standpoint, the Bears literally couldn’t get the OU offense off the field in the 2nd half of that game and they have to be questioning whether they can here. On top of that, the Sooners played that game without arguably their top offensive threat in WR Lamb and he is back healthy for this game. We’re laying -9 points here on a neutral field which is LESS than Oklahoma was a favored AT Baylor just a few weeks ago.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (-) over Miami (Ohio) RedHawks, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #106

The wear and tear of a season can take a toll on teams and the RedHawks will be playing for the 5th straight week here. The Chippewas, on the other hand, are the fresher team as they have had two late season bye weeks. This will be just the 3rd game for Central Michigan in the past 5 weeks as they had bye dates on the 9th and 23rd of November. Miami lost a few players to injury in the first half of last week's game against Ball State so then they rested players in the second half. The RedHawks were hoping to bounce back after almost losing outright to Akron as a 31-point favorite the prior week! We're not putting a lot of weight into either one of those late season games as Miami had already secured its position atop of the MAC East. However, what we are putting a lot of weight into is the fact that the RedHawks have an anemic offense. QB Brett Gabbert hardly played last week because he didn't need to but in the 6 preceding games he had thrown as many picks (6) as touchdowns (6) and he had been sacked an average of 2.2 times per game. He is a freshman and has completed just 54% of his passes this season. Conversely, Central Michigan QB Quinten Dormady is a senior completing 71% of his passes this season! In 4 of Dormady's last 6 games he has not been sacked. He has 13 TDs against just 5 INTs on the season. Dormady has thrown for at least 250 yards in all 5 of his games against MAC opponents this season! They have been a different team since he took over at QB. Dormady leads a Central Michigan offense that is one of the best in the MAC while Gabbert leads an offense that ranks not only among the worst in the MAC but among the worst in the nation! That will prove to be the difference in this match-up. The defenses are about equal but there is no comparison when looking at these two offenses and this game is being played where the NFL's Lions play. Ford Field is an indoor stadium and that means Dormady will be able to air it out all game long in this one. The RedHawks have been held to 27 points or less in 9 of their 12 games this season. The Chippewas have scored 38 points or more in 6 of their past 7 games. Head coach Jim McElwain, formerly a head coach at SEC school Florida, has led a huge turnaround in his first year at Central Michigan. Since turning to former Tennessee (another SEC school) recruit Dormady at QB, the Chips offense has taken things to another level. The RedHawks will not be able to keep up here. Both teams have had some defensive struggles away from home this season but it is Miami-Ohio's inconsistency on offense that will be the difference maker here. The RedHawks pace (61.7 offensive plays per game) ranks near bottom of nation and their efficiency (5.0 yards per play on offense) ranks in bottom twenty of the nation. That plodding and methodical style is not going to get the job done with the way McElwain's offense is firing on all cylinders right now. The Chippewas defense has it numbers skewed by the fact they had two rough performances in the MAC and lost an ugly game at Wisconsin in non-conference action this season. In their other 9 games this season Central Michigan has allowed 19 points per game. Taking a look at Miami lets remove their match-up with Ohio State and their two worst performances in the MAC from the equation and they have allowed 21 points per game in their other 9 games. As you can see, truly the defenses do rate about equal here but there is no comparison in terms of the offensive production and being able to lay less than a TD here is a bargain with high-flying Central Michigan as they have hit their stride at the right time of year and also are the fresher team here thanks to the more recent bye weeks. Lay the points with the Chippewas in very early Conference Championship action Saturday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Ohio State, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET

Ohio State comes in undefeated however they have yet to leave Columbus.  All 7 of their games this year have been in the friendly confines of Value City Arena.  They are a young team (6 underclassmen averaging 10+ minutes per game) that may experience some growing pains on the road at times and we expect that in their first road game tonight @ the historic Dean Dome.  UNC has one loss but they’ve played the much tougher schedule, especially as of late.  The Heels are coming off games vs Alabama, Michigan, and Oregon last week all on a neutral site.  OSU has not played a top 100 team since November 13th with their last 4 games coming against Stetson, IPFW, Kent, and Morgan State.  Now they take a HUGE step up in competition and on the road.  We’re not sure they’re quite ready for that.   The Heels also got a boost last week when senior Brandon Robinson returned after missing their first 4 games due to an injury.  Robinson showed no signs of a slow start with 34 points in his 3 games while averaging nearly 30 minutes per game.  Super Frosh Cole Anthony (20 PPG) has a banged up ankle for UNC but he has been able to rest it since last Friday and he practiced on Tuesday and appears ready to go.  OSU has struggled on the defensive glass despite their easy slate and UNC is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation so we expect a big advantage on the boards.  It’s obviously very tough to walk into the Dean Dome and beat the Tar Heels.  They are 58-6 SU their last 64 home games AND 56 of those 58 wins have come by at least 4 points which would cover tonight’s number.  We like North Carolina to hand OSU their first loss of the season.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -2.5 vs. LA Lakers, 9PM ET

The Lakers have played one of the NBA’s softest schedule to date and of their 20 games, ONLY 7 have been against teams with winning records and they are 4-3 in those games after a win in Denver last night. The Lakers lofty offensive (8th) and defensive (3rd) efficiency numbers are skewed as a result of the schedule. After playing a game in the higher altitude of Denver last night the Lakers will have a tough time finding their legs tonight in Utah against a Jazz team in a foul mood after two straight losses. The Jazz home/road dichotomy is very strong as they are 8-1 SU at home compared to 4-8 SU on the road. The Jazz have a negative differential of -3.5PPG on the road but are plus +7PPG at home. Again, the Lakers are 2-1 on the road against winning teams this year yet only have an average margin of victory of +4.7PPG playing their weak schedule. Utah shoots over 47% at home and hold foes to just 42.1%. The Jazz were plus +3.5 points in L.A. earlier this season and lost by 9-points. The natural swing in the point spread should have them -5.5 points in this contest so we’ll grab the value and the rested home team against a team off a road win in Denver.

ASA 10* play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +1 over Indian Pacers, 8PM ET – At first glance the Indiana Pacers streak of 6-1 their last seven games is impressive but lets take a closer look. In that seven game stretch the Pacers have beaten Memphis twice, Atlanta, Orlando and Brooklyn, none of which have a winning record. You can argue that Oklahoma City is in that same scenario with a losing record, but they’ve played a top ten strength of schedule and Indiana has played one of the easiest. The Thunder have won back to back games against the Pelicans but are just 4-6 SU their last ten games but take peek at who the loses have come against. Portland the Lakers twice, Clippers, this Pacers team and the Bucks. OKC has had a dominating home record in recent years and has a loyal following at home. The Thunder are 92-48 SU at home since 2016 with an average margin of victory of +5.1PPG. The Thunder were recently +1.5 points at Indiana so the line adjustment isn’t what it should be with them the home team. Playing with same season revenge we like the Thunder here by double-digits.

ASA play on: #550 Denver Nuggets -2 vs. LA Lakers, 9PM ET

We will play on the Denver Nuggets here minus the points at home over the Lakers. Los Angeles is certainly the media darling and has garnered a lot of attention with their 17-3 start. But the reality is the NBA set them up with one of the easiest schedules possible to start the season to ensure TV ratings early on and promote them as the team of destiny this season. On a side note, it hasn’t worked as NBA ratings are down this season but that will change as the season heats up. Back to basketball, the Lakers roster is an impressive one, but they’ve played the softest schedule to date and of their 20 games, ONLY 6 have been against teams with winning records and they are 3-3 in those games. The Lakers lofty offensive (8th) and defensive (4th) efficiency numbers are skewed as a result of the schedule. Denver on the other hand has faced much stiffer competition and is 1st in the NBA in DEFF and 20th in OEFF. The Nuggets at home have already beaten Boston, Houston, Philadelphia and Miami who are some of the league’s better teams. Even with that schedule the Nuggets still have an average margin of victory at home of +6.4PPG. Again, the Lakers are 1-1 on the road against winning teams this year yet only have an average margin of victory of +4.3PPG playing their weak schedule. The oddsmakers are begging us to bet the public Lakers here and we won’t bite. Denver has covered 5 straight against the Lakers on this court. Bet the Nuggets.

ASA's 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -1 over Butler, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

These two met last year @ Butler and Ole Miss led by 5 with around 5:00 minutes remaining and lost by 7.  That should motivate them for this rematch.  Not only that, the Rebels, who are 5-2 on the season, are coming off an embarrassing effort in Kansas City facing Oklahoma State.  The Rebs were favored by 2 in that game and lost 78-37.  Yes you read that correctly.  It was simply a horrible performance as Ole Miss made 29% of their shots overall and made ONE 3-point shot in 20 attempts!  After the game head coach Kermit Davis called it “embarrassing” and we expect them to come out with some fire tonight at home.  They were playing well entering that game beating a very solid Penn State two days prior to this debacle and nearly topped #15 Memphis on the road a few days before that losing by 1- point.  Butler is 7-0 on the season and ranked 24th yet they are an underdog here against t team that just lost by 39 points?  That’s why the vast majority bets are coming in on Butler yet this line is not moving.  Ole Miss is still a favorite.  This is the Bulldogs first true road game and they have a huge revenge game on deck as they host Florida on Saturday, a team that beat them 77-43 last season.  Butler is solid but this situation sets up very nicely for an Ole Miss team that brings a number of key performers back from last year’s NCAA tourney team.  All they have to do is win at home and we feel they will give Butler their first loss of the season.  Take Ole Miss.      

ASA play on #475 Minnesota Vikings +3 over Seattle Seahawks, 8:15PM ET

Have you ever looked at a line and said, “man that looks obvious” and then bet it and lose? Tonight, is one of those instances when the oddsmakers are begging you to bet the home team at minus -2.5-points. There is a substantial amount of money and tickets on Seattle tonight, yet the oddsmakers won’t move that line to -3. That says a lot and we’ll put ourselves on the side that Vegas doesn’t want us on tonight and that’s Minnesota. Seattle is just 3-2 SU at home this year with one of the wins coming in overtime against a bad Tampa team and two other wins coming by just 1-point. The two teams they hosted that had winning records, Baltimore and New Orleans, beat them by a combined 20-points. Minnesota on the other hand is 3-3 SU on the road but look at who they’ve played and lost to. Their three losses have come at Green Bay, at Chicago before they struggled and then at Kansas City. Those three teams have a combined 23-13 SU record this season and two of the Vikings losses came by 1 score or less. The Vikings run it for 4.6 yards per carry which is 11th best in the NFL and will have a big advantage there against a Seattle defense that gives up 4.5YPC which ranks them 23rd. While the two offenses have similar yards per play numbers the overall defensive stats clearly favor the Vikings who allow just 5.3YPPL (11th) compared to the Seahawks D which gives up 5.8YPPL (22nd). Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense will also find it difficult to move the football through the air as the Vikings allow just 10.0 yards per completion which is 10th best in the NFL. We’ll bet the underdog with the better ground game and defense in this one. Play on Minnesota Vikings.

ASA play on: #527 Utah Jazz +5.5 @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET

The Jazz have struggled a little to start the season with a 12-8 SU record but they’ve also faced the Bucks twice, Clippers twice, the Lakers and this same Philly team. Those are four of the best teams in the entire NBA and we can even include the Raptors who are 15-4 this season. Speaking of Toronto, the Jazz were just beaten and embarrassed by the Raptors yesterday. Because that game was a blowout early the Jazz didn’t have a player play more than 31-minutes in the contest which means fatigue shouldn’t be an issue. Utah was just +2-points at Toronto so you can see for yourself the added value with this number. Philadelphia is coming off a home win in their last game and were favored by 6-points over Indiana who isn’t as good as Utah. The 76ers are slightly better in both offensive and defensive efficiency but again, a lot of that has to do with scheduling. Utah holds opponents to 43.4% shooting while the 76ers allow foes to hit nearly 46% of their FG attempts. The Jazz can rebound with the 76ers and limit easy second chance baskets here. Take the points with Utah.

ASA 10* PLAY ON NC Central +16 over Wofford, Monday at 7 PM ET

NCCU, out of the MEAC, is a very solid program that has been to the NCAA tournament 3 straight seasons.  They have gotten off to a slow start (2-5 record) but were picked by most to win the MEAC again so we feel they are undervalued right now.  They have a very solid backcourt with Perkins & Miller, both returning starters from last year, and the additions of Boston College transfer Ty Graves & Wichita State transfer CJ Keyser.  They shoot the 3 very well (115th nationally) and they are facing a Wofford team that defends the arc very poorly (315th nationally).  Wofford is simply a poor defensive team in general allowing their opponents to shoot almost 49% on the year.  The Terriers were a fantastic story last year going undefeated in the Southern Conference and making it to the Big Dance.  However, they lost many of their key players off that team including sharp shooter Fletcher Magee and big man Cameron Jackson who graduated along with starter Keve Aluma who transferred to Va Tech.  Speaking of Va Tech, the Terriers also lost their coach Mike Young who took over the Hokies program.  With so many changes from last year, they’ve struggle to find their way this year having already lost 4 games which is almost as many as they lost all of last year (5).  This team is overvalued right now due to last year’s success.  We like NC Central to score enough to keep this within this number which is too high in our opinion.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Carolina -10 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Redskins finally picked up a win last week topping Detroit 19-16.  Their only other win this season was a 17-16 victory @ Miami.  Washington’s win last week was a game they really probably didn’t deserve.  They were outgained by 134 yards and by more than 1.0 YPP.  The Skins didn’t score an offensive TD in the game.  They benefitted from a 91 yard kickoff return and 4 Detroit turnovers.  Rookie QB Haskins was again inaccurate completing only 44% of his attempts with 0 TD’s and 1 pick.  For the season he’s now completing only 54% with 2 TDs and 6 interceptions.  Since Haskins took over as the starting QB 3 games ago, the Redskins have had 36 offensive possessions and scored a grand total of TWO offensive TDs.  This is a huge home game for Carolina who is 5-6 on the season and still has playoff hopes.  The Panther offense got back on track last week putting up 31 points and 350 yards on one of the top defenses in the NFL (New Orleans).  They battled the Saints to the end on the road with New Orleans kicking a FG as time expired for the 34-31 win.  The Panther defense has given up some points over the last 3 weeks however they faced Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers, Atlanta with Matt Ryan, and New Orleans with Drew Brees.  We expect them to look MUCH better here vs an offense and QB that is among the worst in the NFL.  We like Carolina to roll in this game picking up a double digit win.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Pittsburgh +2.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Just two weeks ago these two teams met and the Browns were favored by 3 at home and won the game 21-7.  Now they are favored by nearly the same number on the road and we think that number is a mistake.  In Cleveland the yardage was fairly close (Cleve 293 – Pitt 236) but the Steelers QB Mason Rudolph threw 4 interceptions (0 turnovers for Cleveland).  Even with that, this was a one scored game with Cleveland up 14-7 with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game.  On top of the 4 turnovers, the Steelers missed a FG and were shut out on downs twice inside Cleveland territory so they did have plenty of opportunities.  The Steelers are going with Devlin Hodges at QB here and we feel his is a definite upgrade over Rudolph.  In his lone start Hodges led the Steelers to a 24-17 win @ LA Chargers.  Last week Hodges entered in the 3rd quarter with the Steelers losing 7-3 @ lowly Cincinnati and he led them to a comeback win.  We don’t trust Cleveland as a road favorite.  They have now lost 3 straight road games including when they traveled to Denver as a 4-point favorite.  They have lost 15 straight games in Pittsburgh and this is the first time they’ve been favored @ the Steelers since 1989!  Cleveland has not been on the road in a full month and with the way the game ended a few weeks ago (Cleveland’s Myles Garrett clubbing Pitt QB Rudolph over the head with his helmet) we expect the Steelers to play with a little extra here.  We like the Steelers to win and we’ll grab the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over NC State Wolfpack, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #359

NC State won last year's game in overtime and there was a huge fight in the end zone after the game.  Suffice to say both teams will be highly motivated in this year's rematch but that is bad news for the Wolfpack because the Tar Heels are certainly the vastly superior team.  NC State was down 21 to 3 to Georgia Tech (UNC beat GT 38-22 by the way) at the half last week and that shows you have far this team has fallen as the Yellow Jackets have been enduring a rebuilding season and yet still went on to defeat the Wolfpack last week.  Now NC State faces a fierce rival seeking revenge and also seeking the necessary 6th win for bowl eligibility.  Even though the Tar Heels are away from home for this one, the road team has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams.  North Carolina has a huge edge at QB in this match-up as Sam Howell as thrown for 32 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions.  NC State QB Devin Leary has just 7 touchdowns and has thrown 3 picks.  In his last 5 games Howell had one tough game at home against Duke but in the other 4 games he totaled 15 touchdowns against just 1 pick and this includes an 8-1 ratio in road games.  Leary, on the other hand, is trending the other direction with his 3 picks (against 4 TDs) all coming in his last 4 games.  NC State has lost 5 straight games and the average margin of defeat in those is 23.2 points per game.  The Wolfpack have averaged scoring only 17 points per game in their past 7 games.  That is bad news here for NC State as they simply won't be able to keep up in this game.  North Carolina has scored an average of 34 points per game their past 6 games (not including OT points in the 6-OT battle with Virginia Tech).  While the Tar Heels and Wolfpack rate about equal on the defensive side of the ball, North Carolina's does hold a big edge on offense.  The Tar Heels have amassed over 5,000 yards of offense this season and their 6.2 yards per play ranks them #3 in the ACC while NC State ranks 11th in the ACC averaging just 5.2 yards per play on offense.  In terms of technical support here the Wolfpack certainly have not been performing well in the underdog role.  NC State is 0-6 ATS the last six times they have been an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points including 0-3 ATS this season.  In their last 5 ACC games the Tar Heels have averaged 325.2 passing yards per game.  In their last 4 ACC games the Wolfpack have averaged just 196.3 passing yards per game.  Per our computer math model, North Carolina piles up the yardage here and sends NC State to their 6th straight loss (both SU and ATS) as road team dominance in this series continues and the Tar Heels get revenge for last season's OT loss (and game-ending fight) that ruined the night at Chapel Hill!  UNC hasn't forgotten that one!  Lay the points with the Tar Heels as a road favorite in evening action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) over Michigan Wolverines, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #367

We feel OSU is absolutely the value side here.  Just two weeks ago the initial line on this game was OSU -14.  Now laying 10 or less we are siding with Ohio State.  Last week’s 28-17 win over Penn State was quite deceiving.  The Buckeyes dominate the game.  They were up 14-0 at half and should have been up 21-0 if not for a fumble by QB Fields just before he crossed the goal line.  They held a 245 to just 64 yardage edge at the break.  A quick score to open the 2nd half made it 21-0 (could have been 28-0) and it looked like another OSU rout vs a top notch opponent.  PSU then took advantage of 2 short field drives after back to back OSU turnovers and got back in the game very quickly at 21-17.  The Buckeyes dominated the stats (+190 yardage) and if not for that brief hiccup in the 3rd quarter (2 quick turnovers deep in their own territory) this was headed for a blowout.  The Bucks have covered 8 of their 10 games this year, they are +39 PPG and +315 YPG on the year.  Simply dominating.  Michigan was impressive last week winning @ Indiana, however with the game tied at 14-14, the Hoosiers players started dropping including their QB Ramsey, who was injured during the game but kept playing, their top RB, starting LT, and top WR who missed the game.  The Wolverines took advantage and pulled away for a big win.   Let’s face it, the Buckeyes own this series.  They have won 14 of the last 15 meetings and even last season when Michigan was the better team all season long and came into the game favored by 3.5 points, OSU still rolled to an easy 62-39 win.  Before last week’s misleading 11 point win, Ohio State had won every conference game by at least 24 points.  While they did clinch the Big Ten East last Saturday, the Bucks have higher aspirations and need to keep winning to seal a spot in college football’s version of the Final 4.  They’ve been completely focused all season with nothing really resembling a letdown game.  Getting potentially the top team in the country laying less than 10 is a gift here.  We like Ohio State. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Seton Hall -2 over Iowa State, Friday at 7:00 PM ET

This line is light according to our power ratings.  We have Seton Hall favored by -4.5 so we’re getting a full possession of value here.  The Pirates are 5-2 on the year but their 2 losses have been down to the wire affairs vs Michigan State & Oregon (both top 15 teams according to Ken Pom).  The Pirates could easily be 7-0 as they led Michigan State by 5 with under 2:00 minutes remaining (lost by 3) and led Oregon by 19 (lost by 2).  Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 3 days here in the Bahamas and with that depth is very important and Seton Hall is absolutely the deeper team (26th nationally in bench minutes while ISU is 222nd in that category).  In their 2 games vs Oregon & Southern Miss, the Pirates were able to distribute double digit minutes to 10 players in game 1 and 9 players in game 2.  Iowa State (4-2 with losses to Oregon State & Michigan) really goes only 7 deep so we could be looking at a tired team here in the 2nd half.  This is a favorable match up for the Hall.  They rank higher in offensive efficiency, higher in defensive efficiency and they are the better rebounding team.  They also shoot the 3 very well (31st nationally at nearly 40%) and ISU’s defensive weakness is defending the arc (294th nationally).  The Pirates have found their groove from deep in this tourney hitting nearly 50% (24 of 51) in their 2 games and they should do the same today vs the Cyclones.  They also have the best player on the court in Myles Powell who is averaging 23 PPG and making over 40% of his 3 point attempts and 83% of his FT’s.  As we mentioned this line is too short in our opinion and we like Seton Hall to cover this one.