ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 over LA Lakers, 7:35 PM ET - The Lakers will be without LeBron James in this game after he was ejected in the last game against the Pistons. The altercation was the main story from the other night but from our standpoint the issue was the Lakers were trailing the 4-12 Pistons by 15-points entering the 4th quarter. Prior to their win over the Pistons the Lakers had lost 4 straight road games by an average of 13PPG. LA was one of the best defensive teams in the NBA a season ago, but now rank 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Lakers offense has been even worse ranking 24th in offensive efficiency. The Knicks are coming off a disappointing road loss in Chicago in which they led big before late game collapse and a 6-point loss. The Knicks are 11th in offensive efficiency and 17th in DEFF but both of those rankings are better than the Lakers. The Knicks have covered 4 straight at home against LA and are on a 3-0 SU streak when home coming off a loss.

#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -7.5 over Wisconsin, Tuesday at 5 PM ET - Houston was a Final 4 team a year ago and they return 4 of their top 7 players. They also have added 2 key transfers that play significant minutes including an All Conference caliber player from Texas Tech (Kyler Edwards). They dominated Butler from start to finish yesterday on their way to an 18 point win. Their game prior to that they crushed Virginia by 20 points – game was played last week. The Cougs are a veteran team with all juniors and seniors in the starting line up. Wisconsin is very young this year after losing 4 of 5 starters from a year ago. The Badgers got behind by 16 points yesterday vs Texas A&M and made a massive comeback to pick up an easy win. A&M wanted to run and they got this young Wisconsin team to play their pace early on before HC Gard made some adjustments to slow the game down. The Aggies offense does not excel in the half court and that allowed Wisconsin to make their comeback. Today they face a very physical, mature team that also likes to play a slow tempo. UW is not a great shooting team this year (284th in eFG%) and they are facing a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency after ranking 9th a year ago. The Cougars, on the other hand, are a much better shooting team ranking 10% better eFG% and 10% better from 3-point land when compared to Wisconsin. This is a very tough match up for a UW team that is still learning the ropes. Take Houston.

#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Providence +1.5 over Northwestern, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - The wrong team is favored in this one. Our power ratings have Providence as a 3 point favorite on a neutral court. NW is 4-0 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in college basketball thus far. The Cats have played all home games and haven’t faced a team ranked inside the top 260 and 3 of their 4 opponents were ranked outside the top 315. Providence is also 4-0 but 3 of their 4 opponents are ranked higher than anyone NW has played this season. The Friars went to Wisconsin and won which is never easy to do. The led the Badgers for most of the game and the final score of 63-58 was closer than the game really was as Providence led by 13 with 6:00 remaining. The Friars are a veteran team with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting line up. They are a very good interior offense (61% from inside the arc – 11th best nationally) with big man Nate Watson leading the way. He’s averaging 21 PPG and has made a remarkable 74% of his shots inside the arc (34 of 46). We don’t think NW has anyone that can guard him. Because Providence is more of an interior team, they get to the FT line a lot already getting to the stripe 52 more times than their opponents this season. With a solid defense on top of that (79th in defensive efficiency) this is a team that should play very well on the road this year as they don’t rely on 3-pointers. NW leaving their campus for the first time (game is in Newark NJ) playing a team that is far superior to anyone they’ve played will be a problem for the Cats tonight. Providence is the play here.

#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +11.5 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - Giants are coming off a bye and playing much better as of late. They’ve won 2 of their last 3 games with their only loss coming by 3 points @ KC. They outgained the Chiefs 5.4 YPP to 4.8 YPP in that game and that tight loss on the road is looking more impressive after KC demolished Las Vegas and handled Dallas in the 2 weeks after. They have been a big time money maker as a road underdog going 19-4 ATS their last 23. This year they are 3-1 ATS when getting points on the road. NYG QB Jones has been better on the road in his career than he’s been at home. This year in his 4 road games he has a higher completion percentage, higher yards per pass attempt, and a higher QBR away from home. WR’s Golladay and Toney are finally healthy and RB Barkley may play here. TB is coming off back to back losses getting topped New Orleans by 9 and Washington by 10. Brady put up his 2 lowest QBR ratings in those 2 games which included 4 interceptions. Those were vs pass defenses that rank 13th and 29th DVOA. The Giants defensive strength is vs the pass ranking 11th in the NFL DVOA so they match up very well with a TB offense that struggles to run (27th in rush offense). These 2 faced off last year and it was tight to the end with Tampa winning by just 2 points despite getting outgained by the Giants. NYG may not win this one but they’ll put up a fight and say within 11 points.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Bulls as they are off a 5 game West coast road trip, then hosted the Knicks on Sunday night and now must face a rested Pacers team. Indiana is just 2-9 SU on the road this season, but they’ve been in tight games recently and have an average loss margin of -3.6PPG. Chicago is 5-2 SU at home this year with a +/- of 8.8PPG but this isn’t sustainable. The Bulls are better this season, but they were 15-20 SU at home last year with an average Margin of Victory of -1.7PPG. The Pacers are 6-2 ATS the last 8 meetings and catch the Bulls in a bad spot. Grab the points.

#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not going to overreact to one big offensive performance from KC. They walloped Las Vegas last week but prior to that this team was averaging only 17 PPG their previous 5 games. This team still is a shell of last year’s Super Bowl team. The Chiefs YPP differential is -0.3 and their defense ranks 31st in YPP allowed at 6.1. That’s a bad match up vs a Dallas offense that is 1st in the NFL averaging 6.3 YPP and 1st as well in scoring at 31.6 PPG. KC is 0-9 ATS their last 9 home games (regular season) including 0-5 ATS this year losing by an average of 8 PPG to the spread. Dallas has been the better team all season long. They are the only team in the NFL ranked in the top 5 in both offense and defense DVOA. Their defense ranks 3rd DVOA vs the pass which matches them up very nicely with the Chiefs in this game. The Cowboys are also 3rd in the NFL in 3rd down defense with opponents converting only 32% of the time. That should keep Mahomes on the sidelines and the Dallas offense on the field in this one. KC continues to be overvalued based on their previous seasons. The better team is getting points here and we’re not passing that up. Take Dallas.

#455 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indianapolis +7.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Colts are still undervalued after losing their first 3 games of the season. They have since won 5 of their last 7 with their 2 losses during that stretch both coming in OT @ Baltimore and @ Tennessee. They led both those games by 14 points or more so this team could easily be on a 7-0 run. Indy is playing as well as anyone in the AFC right now and getting a full TD here is too much. Buffalo started the season red hot but they’ve since lost 2 of their last 4 games. It’s been nearly a month since the Bills have played a formidable opponent as they’ve faced Miami, Jacksonville, and the NY Jets the last 3 weeks. They were favored by 13.5 or more in each of those games. They struggled with Miami (up just 10-3 entering the 4th quarter) and lost to Jacksonville. Buffalo has the league’s top point differential and they have a number of blowouts, but all but 1 of those easy wins have come against the worst teams in the NFL (Miami (twice), NY Jets, Houston, and Washington). They have played the NFL’s easiest schedule to date not facing a single team ranked inside FB Outsiders top 13 DVOA. Indy will be the highest rated team they’ve faced this season. This is also a revenger for the Colts as these 2 faced off here in Buffalo in the playoffs last year. The Bills won that game 27-24 but were -75 total yards, -67 rushing yards, and -5 first downs. Indy QB Wentz quietly having a very good season with 17 TD’s and 3 interceptions while RB Taylor has become the NFL’s best. We see this one tight throughout and we’ll grab the 7 points with the Colts.

#468 ASA PLAY ON 8* Minnesota +1.5 over Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Green Bay has overcome a number of key injuries but we think it catches up with them here vs an underrated Minnesota team. The Packers will be without their starting RB (Jones), their top pass rusher (Smith), another top pass rusher is questionable (Gary), their LT is out, starting TE out (Tonyan), top CB out (Alexander), 2 other CB’s are questionable (Stokes & King), starting WR doubtful (Lazard), and Aaron Rodgers has a bad toe and didn’t practice all week until Friday and he was still limited. Rodgers actually hasn’t participated in a full practice since October 22nd. His last 2 games were pretty average by his standards with a 60% completion rate, 2 TD’s and 1 interception. Minnesota is much better than their 4-5 record. 6 of their 9 games have come down to the final minute of play or went into OT. The Vikings lost 4 of those 6 games. Minnesota has played the tougher schedule (9th most difficult compared to GB at 22nd most difficult) and despite that the overall stats are very close with GB at +30 YPG and the Vikings at +15 YPG. FB Outsiders DVOA has Minnesota rated as the 9th best team in the NFL and GB rated at 12th. GB has been favored @ Minnesota 13 times since 1995 and covered only 4 of those games. The Vikes have been a home dog 22 times since 2012 and they’ve covered 17 of those games. We like the desperate home underdog that needs this win to get to .500 and keep their playoffs hopes from diminishing.

#463 ASA PLAY ON 8* New Orleans +3 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Eagles went on the road and topped Denver last week which makes them 4-2 SU on the road this season. The problem is, they haven’t won a home game this season (0-4) and they are hosting a Saints team that is desperate off back to back losses. Last week New Orleans thoroughly outplayed Tennessee on the road outgaining the Titans by over 100 yards and +1.5 YPP but lost 23-21. That’s back to back 2-point losses for the Saints. Their QB Siemian has played very well in relief of Winston who went out a few weeks ago with a season ending injury. In his 3 starts he has thrown for over 700 yards with 5 TD’s and no interceptions. The Eagles have become the most run heavy team in the NFL over the last month with 156 carries over their last 4 games (39 carries per game). The Saints defense, one of the best in the NFL ranked 6th DVOA, is #1 DVOA vs the rush so they match up very well with this Eagle offense. New Orleans has bounced back nicely covering 4 in a row after a SU loss. The Eagles are 2-9 ATS their last 11 following an ATS win. The Saints are the better team in this game (8th DVOA compared to 15th DVOA for Eagles) and they are in must win mode off 2 losses. Take the points.

#426 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Hawaii +2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 11PM ET - We have you covered for the late-night tilt on the Big Island in Hawaii when the Rams visit the Rainbow Warriors. This is a tough scheduling situation for Colorado State as they travel to Hawaii after suffering their fourth straight loss last week to Air Force. After prepping for the Triple Option attack, they now must adjust to playing the more traditional attack of Hawaii. CSU cannot make a Bowl game at this point, and they face one of the best teams in the Mountain West next week in Nevada. Hawaii on the other hand still has a shot at notching 6 wins on the season with a win here and the at Wyoming to become Bowl eligible. The Warriors are a much different team at home than they are on the road. Hawaii has been competitive at home against some of the league’s best teams losing by 7-points to San Diego State, 4 to San Jose State and beating Fresno State. Hawaii has some horrible defensive numbers overall, but at home they allow 5.2-Yards Per Play and 25.4PPG which are better than the national average. The Rams offense has struggled this season, especially on the road where they average just 4.9YPPL and 3.6-Yards Per Rush. In comparison, Hawaii averages 5.8YPPL at home and 5.0YPR. Colorado State should not be favored here and with nothing left to play for don’t be surprised if they view this trip to the islands as a vacation of sorts. Grab the points.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - The Boilers are loaded this year returning 4 of 5 starters from last year and many of their key reserves. They have 2 of the top players in the Big 10 in Trevion Williams and Jaden Ivey. We had them rated as the best team in the Big 10 entering the season and they haven’t disappointed. They have played 3 teams ranked inside the top 190 to start the season and won those games by 29, 25, and 44 points. Their most recent win was 96-52 vs Wright State, a team that is ranked as the top team in the Horizon League and finished last year with an 18-6 record. UNC, on the other hand, hasn’t played a team ranked inside the top 225 and has had some fairly close games winning by 7, 11 and 16 points. UNC is coming off an 18-11 season, however they were just 3-7 SU vs teams ranked inside the top 40 last year which we’d consider solid competition. Purdue is currently ranked 3rd in the country on Ken Pom. Purdue HC Matt Painter always has his teams playing solid, aggressive defense. After 3 games this year (vs better competition that UNC) the Boilers have allowed just 36% from the field and rank 19th in defensive efficiency. They have finished in the top 40 in defensive efficiency for 6 straight years under Painter. UNC, again vs all opponents ranked 200 or lower, are allowing almost 44% from the field (ranked 236th) and they have allowed at least 83 points in 2 of their 3 games. They now face a Purdue offense that has scored 90+ in every game this season. Purdue is the much better team here and we’ll lay the points.

#357 ASA PLAY ON 8* Minnesota -7 over Indiana, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Indiana is in a free fall losing 6 straight games and they really have nothing left to play for. You could tell that last week when they hosted Rutgers and lost 38-3! That’s the same Rutgers team that lost 52-3 at home vs Wisconsin a week earlier. The Rutgers offense had not topped 20 points in a game since mid September and nearly put up 40 on IU. The Hoosiers are really banged up a QB with starter Penix still out, his back up Tuttle was re-injured last week and didn’t return leaving them with their 3rd and 4th team signal callers. Their offense has been terrible ranking 121st nationally and if you subtract their one decent offensive performance vs a bad Maryland defense, the Hoosiers have scored 0, 3, 6, 7, 7, and 15 points in Big 10 play. Minnesota’s defense is very good (6th nationally) and should shut this team down. The Gophs completely out played Iowa on the road last week outgaining them 409 to 277 and held the Hawks to just 70 yards on the ground (Minny had 190 rushing). A few bad breaks cost them that game. They already have blowout road wins @ Colorado & @ Northwestern along with a win @ Purdue. We like Minnesota to bounce back and win this one by more than a TD.

#367 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois +13 over Iowa, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - We like this spot for the Illini. They are coming off a bye and have been very competitive on the road beating Penn State & Minnesota, while losing by 4 @ Purdue. Iowa is coming off a big home win last week vs Minnesota but they were outplayed in that game getting outgained by 132 yards. The Hawkeyes switched QB’s with Padilla making his first career start but it wasn’t overly impressive as he led the to just 277 total yards and the Hawkeyes averaged only 2.8 YPC. We see them struggling again this week vs an underrated Illinois defense. The Illini have not allowed more than 24 points in their last 7 games and they are allowing just 16 PPG in Big 10 Play (in regulation). Tough to lay nearly 2 TD’s when your offense is ranked 122nd nationally which Iowa’s is. Illinois HC Bielema won’t be on the sidelines here (Covid) but we expect the Illini to keep this one tight in a low scoring game as they have for most of the Big 10 season. They shouldn’t need to do all that much offensively to stay within this number. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -12.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - We can’t add a ton of statistical support to this game as the Bucks have been dealing with several key injuries to start the season with starters Lopez, Middleton, Holiday and Giannis all missing games. Statistically there isn’t support this season but last year the Bucks were 36-11 SU at home with an average margin of victory of +8.9PPG. OKC was 12-24 SU on the road a year ago with a negative differential of -9.2PPG. Recently the Thunder were just a 9-point home dog to Brooklyn and got beat by 24-points. The line on that game clearly shows us this number on the Bucks at home isn’t out of line. Let’s also consider Milwaukee was just a 9-point home favorite over the Lakers. The Bucks are still without Lopez but everyone else and they won’t be looking past this OKC team with Orlando on deck. Bucks by 20.

#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON Atlanta +7.5 over New England, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - The Patriots are quickly becoming a public team after winning & covering 4 straight. Around 75% of the tickets this week have come in on New England and the sportsbooks we track and that has pushed the line from a -4 opener to a full TD. Too much in our opinion and we’ll take the value on Atlanta. The Pats have been favored by -7 or more just twice this season vs the Jets & Texans. In their lone road game as a heavy chalk, New England had to come from down 22-9 @ Houston to squeak by with a 25-22 win. They have been a road favorite of a TD or more just twice since the start of last season struggling to beat a bad Houston team this year and doing the same vs the NY Jets last year (won by 3). Atlanta is coming in off an embarrassing performance @ Dallas losing 43-3. We love backing teams off blowout losses, especially as home underdogs. If they are facing a team off a blowout win (New England won by 38 last week) that’s even better. A buy low – sell high spot for sure. Prior to their loss @ Dallas, the Falcons had won 4 of 6 games with their losses during that stretch coming by 4 & 6 points. Since their 2 blowout losses to open the season vs Philly and @ Tampa Bay, the Falcons have adapted nicely to new head coach Arthur Smith’s systems on both sides of the ball. Since those opening 2 losses, the Falcons are 4-3 SU with 6 of those 7 games being decided by a TD or less (Dallas last week being the only outlier). Last week Atlanta was +8 @ Dallas and now they are +7 at home vs the Patriots? We’ll take the value with the home team on Thursday night.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over LA Clippers, 8:10 PM ET - The Clippers are 9-5 SU on the season, but they’ve benefited from playing 10 of those games at home. The Clippers record is very misleading because of the favorable schedule, and they have just 2 wins over teams with a winning record and one of those came against Charlotte who is 9-7. One of LA’s losses this season came at home against this Memphis team 114-120. The young Grizzlies are still trying to figure out how to be more consistent, but they seem to get up for the league’s best teams. Memphis has beaten this Clippers team, the Warriors and Denver twice. LA has a long injury list right now with three key players banged up as Morris, Batum and Mann are on the injured list. Memphis comes into this game rested, off a solid home win and healthy. Our computers has the Grizzlies favored by 3-points in this game so grab the value with Memphis.

#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss -3.5 over Marquette, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for a very young Marquette team (352nd in experience – last in the nation) coming off a huge upset on Monday at home vs Illinois. The Golden Eagles were down 12 midway through the 2nd half and made a nice comeback to beat the Illini 67-66. Illinois played without their best player, All American center Cockburn. Illinois took 12 more shots, 7 more 3 point attempts, and creamed Marquette on the boards with a +20 differential. The Illini simply shot poorly hitting only 37% of their shots overall and 37% of their 3-point attempts. Prior to that win Marquette struggled at home vs New Hampshire (won by 5) and SIU Edwardsville (won by 11). In their game vs SIUE, who is ranked 321st nationally, Marquette never led by more than 13 in a game they were favored by 21. It was a 5 point game with 2:00 minutes remaining. SIUE followed that 11 point loss @ Marquette by losing to 357th ranked Chicago St by double digits. A Chicago St team that had a record of 10-92 the previous 4 seasons. Ole Miss has beaten two poor opponents handily. They are much more experienced starting 5 upperclassmen and they added some key transfers from Duke & Miami FL in the off season who are solid contributors already. They are a top notch defensive team (25th in defensive efficiency last year & 24th after 2 games this year) that will give this young Marquette team big problems on offense. We’ll lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -4 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - At first glance it looks like it would be hard to bet against the Celtics who are on 7-0 ATS streak but all streaks come to an end. Atlanta is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games – but the 6 spread losses came against some of the league's best teams. @Denver, @Utah, @Golden State, @ Phoenix, Utah and @ Brooklyn. Atlanta came home off that tough West coast trip and drubbed the Bucks by 20 and the Magic by 18 at home. The venue has a lot to do with this wager. The Hawks have the 4th best average point differential at home of +11.9PPG, with a 5-1 record. Last year the Hawks were 25-11 SU at home +6.3PPG. They had the 6th best offensive efficiency numbers at home (1.173PPP) and 13th best home defensive efficiency (1.109PPP). Boston 5-4 SU away this season but were 15-21 SU away from home a year ago with a negative differential of -0.1PPG. The Hawks have covered 23 of their last 27 home games as a favorite and the home team has covered 5 of the last 7 in this series.

#643 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seton Hall +9 over Michigan, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This line opened up Michigan -10.5 and immediately dropped. We agree with the move as we pegged Seton Hall as a surprise team this season. The Pirates are 2-0 including a 36 point win over Ivy League favorite Yale who has a very solid and veteran team. The Hall is very deep this year with key transfers from Syracuse and USF joining the rotation. They already have 7 different players that have scored double digits this year (in 2 games) and head coach Willard will go 10 deep. They also match up well with Michigan’s top player, big man Dickinson, as the Pirates can run 4 solid big men at him throughout the game. Michigan is also 2-0 but they lost many key players from last year’s team (Livers, Smith, Brown, Wagner, and Davis) and might be a bit overrated entering the season. They struggled at home with Buffalo already this year winning by 12. The Bulls shot just 41% in that game and just 18% from 3 but were able to hang around despite Michigan making 54% of their shots and 40% of their 3’s. The Wolverines have also been terrible at the FT line this year making only 35 of their 62 attempts (56%) which could be their downfall in a tight game. Seton Hall keeps this close and covers.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -3.5 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We like the better team here coming off a very deceiving loss last week. The Rams played host to the Titans, who have now won 5 straight games, and dominated the stat sheet. They lost the game but LA was +1.2 YPP, +1.8 YPC, and +0.6 yards per pass attempt. Two huge turnovers did them in with QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to TD. The Rams seem to have very little home field advantage (3-2 record) so on the road, where they are 4-0 this season, we can pick up some nice value. San Fran, on the other hand, hasn’t won a home game yet this season (0-4) losing those games by 2, 7, 12, and 14 points. Last week’s loss was very telling. The Niners were in must win mode at home vs Arizona, who was playing without their QB Murray or their top WR Hopkins. Cardinal back up QB McCoy shredded the SF defense completing 85% of his pass attempts in that game. Arizona outgained the Niners by 100 yards en route to a 31-17 win. That same Cardinal team with McCoy at QB was dominated at home yesterday by Carolina losing 34-10 and they were held to just 3.2 YPP. Rams HC McVay is fantastic off a SU loss with a 16-6 spread mark in that situation. SF, on the other hand, has been a big time money burner at home with a 13-22-1 ATS mark since Shanahan took over as head coach. The 49ers have 3 wins this season vs Detroit, Chicago, and Philly who have a combined record of 7-20. When they’ve had to step up in class SF’s hasn’t been able to get it done. On top of that, this is a double revenger for the Rams who were favored in both games last year vs San Francisco and lost. We like LA tonight.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3 over Indiana Pacers, 7:40 PM ET - This sets up nicely for a bet on the Knicks as they are off a disappointing loss at Charlotte in which they led big but blew it late for an 8-point loss. That was Friday night so they are well rested going into this home game. Indiana on the other hand is in a tough scheduling situation as they played 4 west coast games, came home, got a big win over Philadelphia and now go back on the road to face the Knicks. New York has covered 6 of their last eight when playing on 2 days rest and have covered 13 of the last 19 meetings with the Pacers in the Big Apple. We like the small home favorite here in New York to get back on track with a solid home win.

#264 ASA PLAY ON 8* Las Vegas +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - KC continues to get the respect of the oddsmakers & bettors even though they are clearly nowhere near the team they were last season. After last week’s spread loss this team is now 3-16-1 ATS their last 20 games. That’s the definition of overvalued. Speaking of last week’s game, they played a GB team without Aaron Rodgers and were lucky to win. The Packers averaged 5.0 YPP with QB Love making his first career start and KC’s offense averaged only 3.8 YPP. GB’s turnovers and special teams gaffes cost them the game. After averaging 33.5 PPG over their first 4 games this season, the Chiefs have averaged just 17.4 PPG over their last 5. In the last 3 weeks they’ve scored just 36 TOTAL points for an average of 12 PPG. As a whole the Chiefs have a YPP differential of -0.5 (5.3 YPP offense / 5.8 YPP defense). Their record isn’t an illusion. They just aren’t very good this year. For comparison’s sake, the Raiders have averaged 6.0 YPP offensive while allowing just 5.1 defensively for a YPP differential of +0.9. The Raiders are coming off a loss @ NY Giants last week but don’t be deceived by the final score. Vegas outgained the Giants by 156 yards and pushed inside the NY 20-yard line SIX times in the game and came away with just 16 points. LV had a bye the week prior to playing the Giants so they should be well rested. KC, on the other hand, is playing their 10th consecutive week which takes a toll both physically and mentally. Vegas played KC as tough as anyone last year the first meeting by 8 and winning the second meeting by 4. It wasn’t fluky as the Chiefs only outgained the Raiders by 19 total yards in the 2 games combined. And that was a year when KC was a Super Bowl team. They are nowhere near that level this season and we like Las Vegas to get this won at home.

#242 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indianapolis -10 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Colts are much better than their 4-5 record and they are playing their best ball right now. Let’s not forget this was a playoff team last season. This team started 2021 losing 3 straight games and have since won 4 of their last 6. Their only losses during that 6 game run were vs two of the top teams on the AFC, Baltimore & Tennessee. They could easily be on a 6-0 run right now as they led Baltimore by 16 points in the 4th quarter and lost in OT and led Tennessee by 14 points and lost in OT. The offense has scored at least 30 points in 4 consecutive games and they are averaging 34.2 PPG during that stretch. QB Wentz is playing very well with 14 TD’s and 2 picks over his last 6 and RB Taylor has turned into one of the best in the NFL. Jags are coming off a 9-6 home win vs Buffalo and a letdown on the road is in order here. The Bills were favored by 14.5 on the road in that game and now we’re getting Indy at -10 at home. Five of Jacksonville’s six losses have come by double digits with their average loss coming by 14 points. Just a week before upsetting the Bills at home, this team lost 31-7 @ Seattle with Geno Smith at QB for the Seahawks. The Jags really struggle to score points ranking 31st in the NFL putting up only 16.5 PPG. They score points on just 24% of their offensive possessions which is 31st ahead of only the Texans. Indy’s defense ranks 2nd in the NFL DVOA vs the rush which means in order for Jacksonville to stay in this game rookie QB Lawrence will have to play fantastic. We don’t see that happening. He ranks near the bottom of QB’s in completion % (30th) and has more interceptions than TD’s thrown. This game is eerily similar to the Colts most recent game. They were 10 points favorites at home vs the Jets who were just coming off a huge upset vs the Bengals. Indy won by 15 but they were in total control leading 42-10 late in the 3rd quarter. We see a similar result here. That game was on Thursday so extra time to rest & prepare for Indianapolis as well. Last year Indy was -15.5 at home vs Jacksonville (won by 14) and now we’re getting them at -10. Lay the points.

#249 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Ask yourself this question. Why is Tennessee only favored by 2.5 to 3 points in this game? This is a Titans team that just won 4 straight games as an underdog vs the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams. And now they face the Saints a team that lost at home to Atlanta last week and are playing their back up QB? Fishy we say. The fact is the Saints match up really well vs this Tennessee team. New Orleans is #1 DVOA defense vs the run which is a huge part of the Titan’s offense, with our without Derrick Henry. Last week, their first game without Henry, the Titans rushed for only 69 yards on 2.7 YPC vs the Rams. Despite their win Tennessee was a bit fortunate in that game with Rams QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another interception that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to a TD. Tennessee was actually outgained by 1.2 YPP in that win. New Orleans QB Siemian has actually played quite well in this game and a half of work this year. He’s thrown for over 400 yards with 3 TD’s and no picks. While they did lose to Atlanta by 2 points this year, let’s not forget this Saints team beat Tampa Bay 36-27 a week early with Siemian getting most of the snaps. New Orleans is 2-0 ATS this year when coming off a SU loss and head coach Payton is 32-20 ATS in that role. The 7-2 Titans are a bit overvalued right now as their YPP differential is -0.3 and they are getting outgained in total yardage on the season. They won their first game without Henry due to LA turnovers. Now they face a motivated New Orleans team with a top notch defense off a loss. Sean Payton and the Saints are 8-1 ATS their last 9 as a road underdog winning 7 of those games outright. Take the points.

#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +4.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Iowa started the season on fire and moved all the way up to #2 in the polls which we knew at the time was nowhere near an accurate perception of this team. They won their first 6 games of the season but that slate was quite easy. They played only 2 teams through the first 6 that currently have a winning record. Those games were tight wins vs Iowa State, who outgained Iowa by 166 yards, and Penn State, who had their QB Clifford leave with an injury with PSU up by 14 points. In those first 6 games, the Hawkeyes were plus a ridiculous 15 turnovers which masked their offensive problems and simply wasn’t sustainable. In their most recent 3 games the Hawkeyes have come back to the level we thought they would be playing at losing by 17 vs Purdue, by 20 vs Wisconsin, and beating a bad NW team by just 5 points. Iowa was outgained in all 3 of those games by a combined 300 yards. That includes last week’s tight win @ NW vs a Wildcat team that had been outgained by a combined 720 yards in their 5 Big 10 games prior to facing Iowa. The Hawkeye offense ranks 121st in total offense and 124th in YPP offense this season. They have scored just 31 total points in their last 3 games and now face a very good Minnesota defense that ranks 7th nationally in total defense and allows just 4.9 YPP. The Gopher defense has allowed more than 16 points just ONCE in their last 7 games. On top of that, Iowa will be most likely be starting Alex Padilla at QB as Petras is injured. Padilla has never started a game in college and while he played decent in relief last week, they still only scored 17 points vs a NW defense that ranks 92nd nationally. Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing home loss vs Illinois. The Gophs had their chances in that 14-6 loss and outgained the Illini. In that loss, Minnesota was shut out on downs twice inside the Illinois 25 yard line, threw a pick in Illinois territory and missed a FG. Prior to last week Minnesota won 4 straight games and they have outgained 6 of their last 7 opponents. The Gophers faced NW on the road a week prior to Iowa doing the same and won the game 41-14 outgaining the Wildcats by 200 yards – the same team the Hawkeyes struggled with last week. These defenses are both very good but we feel Minnesota has a big edge at QB with veteran Morgan vs a first time starter. They also have a large edge on the ground rushing for an average of 208 YPG compared to Iowa’s 114 YPG on the ground. This is expected to a be a low scoring grinder (total set at 37) and getting points, especially +5.5, will be key. We feel Minnesota has a great shot to win this game and if not we don’t see Iowa with their terrible offense winning by more than a FG. Take the points.

#123 ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia State +10.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The big news here centers around QB Grayson McCall of Coastal Carolina who is out with an injured shoulder. McCall had led the Chanticleers to the 6th best completion percentage in the nation and an offense that was averaging 43.3PPG before his injury. Last week without McCall, Coastal managed just 28-points against Georgia Southern which ranks 99th in the nation in points allowed per game and 113th in yards given up per game. Coastal Carolina’s rush defense is 33rd in the nation allowing 129.9YPG but that unit is slightly overrated considering they’ve faced 5 rush offenses that rank 74th or worse. The Chanticleers will struggle to stop a Georgia State offense that is 12th in the nation in rushing at 222.3YPG. Coastal will lean on their rushing attack here too with a unit that averages 225YPG on the ground, but the Georgia State rush D isn’t as bad as their numbers would indicate. The Panthers have faced five rushing offenses that rank 32nd or better including #1 ranked Army. The Panthers are coming off a close 4-point loss against UL Lafayette and have covered 4 in a row. We predict a one score game here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming +14 over Boise State, Friday at 9 PM ET - This line is an overreaction to Boise’s big win last Saturday @ Fresno. Our power ratings have this line around 10 so we’re getting value with Wyoming. In Boise’s 2 other conference home games they were favored by 3 vs Air Force (and lost) and favored by 4 over Nevada (and lost). They are taking on a Wyoming team that is coming in with confidence after playing their best game of the season last week beating Colorado St on the road 31-17 outgaining the Rams by 120 yards. Wyoming’s offense has struggled this year but they made the switch at QB to Levi Williams which gives them more of a running threat and he responded with 116 yards on the ground last week and their highest point total since mid September. And that was vs a CSU defense that ranks 10th nationally. The Cowboys are also an attractive big underdog because their defense is outstanding. The rank 18th nationally allowing just 325 YPG and they have allowed more than 27 points only once all season. Boise’s home field advantage isn’t what it used to be having lost 3 games here already this season and Wyoming has played them as tough as anyone. 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less and we expect a closer than expected game here. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -6.5 over Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - Let’s get this out of the way immediately, the Blazers haven’t won a road game this season 0-6. But the young Rockets have just one win on the season with a 1-10 SU record. Houston has the 5th worst average differential of minus -7.5PPG whereas Portland is +0.9PPG. Portland is far superior offensively with the 7th best offensive efficiency rating compared to the Rockets who rank 27th. Defensively these two teams are similar with Houston ranking 18th in defensive efficiency and Portland 23rd. The Blazers are off two tough road losses against a pair of the best teams in the West and step way down in talent here against the Rockets. Besides their lone home win of the season over a bad OKC team, the Rockets have lost every other home game by 8 or more points. Portland gets a big road win here.

#116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -6.5 over North Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Love this spot for Pitt. UNC is off a back and forth energy draining 58-55 home win over Wake Forest last Saturday. The Heels trailed for much of the game, down by 18 points late in the 3rd quarter, but made a furious rally in the 4th scoring 24 points in a 10 minute span. That was facing a Wake defense that ranks 105th in total defense and the game was at home. They’ll have a much tougher time with this Pitt defense ranked 37th nationally. The North Carolina defense was shredded last week for over 600 yards and they were on the field for a whopping 90 plays so fatigue will be a factor here. The problem is, they face at Pittsburgh offense that is better than the Wake offense they faced last week. The Panthers rank #1 nationally is scoring averaging 45 PPG and #2 in total offense averaging 543 YPG. If the Heels couldn’t slow down the Deacs last week we don’t see them fairing very well in this contest. UNC has lost all 3 of their road games this season by 7 @ Va Tech, by 23 @ Georgia Tech, and by 10 @ Notre Dame. Pitt is significantly better than the first 2 listed and we have them power rated about 2 points better than ND on a neutral field. These teams have played a similar strength of schedule yet Pitt numbers are much better. The Panthers are +1.8 YPP, +1.1 YPC, +2.4 yards per pass attempt, and +198 YPG. UNC’s numbers are +0.9 YPP, +0.6 YPC, +1.5 yards per pass attempt, and +68 YPG. This Pitt team isn’t talked about much and they are flying under the radar. They continue to be undervalued covering 5 of their last 6 games by 81 points (average cover by 13.5 points). On the other side, North Carolina was an overhyped team coming into the season and they have not lived up to expectations. They are just 2-4 ATS their last 6 with their only covers coming vs a terrible Duke team and by a half point last week at home vs Wake. Pitt gets this one by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks -3 over Milwaukee Bucks 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks benefit from rest while the Bucks are off a game last night in Philly and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. The Bucks are shorthanded without Middleton and Lopez out of the lineup and the lack of rest is magnified here. Milwaukee is 4-6 SU on the season and not playing well right now with offensive and defensive efficiency ratings 18th or worse. In comparison, the Bucks were the #1 DEFF team a year ago and 6th in OEFF. New York is 3rd in offensive efficiency this season and have improved dramatically on that end of the court. The Bucks struggled to beat a shorthanded 76ers team on Tuesday night and now face a Knicks team that beat them by 15 points in Milwaukee on Nov 5th. Milwaukee is on a 0-4 ATS streak when playing without rest and New York has won 3 of the last four meetings. The bet here is the Knicks as a short favorite.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 9:10 PM ET - Atlanta is coming off a big game in Golden State last night while Utah is rested but off two straight losses. The Jazz beat the Hawks last week in Atlanta by 18-points but then lost in Miami and then suffered an embarrassing loss at Orlando. In their previous meeting the Jazz beat Atlanta handily without their best player Donovan Mitchell. Atlanta comes into this game playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four nights. The Hawks are 6-10-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. The Jazz have the 3rd best overall Margin of Victory average this year at +9.1PPG, which improves to +13PPG at home. Given the scheduling we won’t be scared off by this number and will back the home team minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors have the best record in the NBA at 8-1 SU while the Hawks are a disappointing 4-6 SU. A major factor in those results are the strength of schedule for both teams as the Warriors have played the 28th easiest schedule, while the Hawks have faced the 8th toughest. In their last six games the Hawks have faced Phoenix, Utah, Brooklyn, Washington twice and Philadelphia. They are coming off a loss Saturday in Phoenix by 4 as a +3.5-point dog. In comparison the Warriors last four wins have come against Houston, New Orleans, Charlotte and OKC who are a combined 10-30 SU and none have a winning record. Despite the tough schedule the Hawks have a negative differential of -2.2PPG which will get us a cover here. Golden State is coming off a game last night and will be playing their 3rd in four days. Golden State was 6-9 ATS last season when playing without rest with a negative differential of -5PPG. Easy call with the Hawks here.

#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +6.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Vikings have a record of 3-4 but they are better than their record. Their 4 losses have come by a combined 15 points with their biggest loss coming by 7 points. They were ahead or tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of those losses. Minnesota currently has a + point differential along with a positive YPP & YPG differential. Baltimore is coming off a bye and a blowout loss @ home vs Cincinnati. While many may think this is a great spot to jump on them, we think the Ravens are overvalued. 3 of their 5 wins have come by 1 point vs KC (not as impressive as it once seemed), winless Detroit by 2 points, Indy in OT in a game they trailed by 16 in the 4th quarter. They also beat a bad Denver team and their lone impressive win was vs the LA Chargers. The Raven defense ranks 30th in the NFL in YPP allowed and they are giving up 65 more total yards than they were last season. Dating back to the 2016 season, Minnesota is 21-10-1 ATS when coming off a SU loss – they loss at home vs Dallas last weekend. We project this one to go to the wire. Getting nearly a TD with Minnesota is a solid value.

#394 ASA PLAY ON 8* Purdue +3 over Michigan State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Sparty is obviously in a tough spot on the road here coming off their biggest win in a number of years topping arch rival Michigan last week. It was a game MSU trailed by 16 late in the 3rd quarter, were outgained 552 to 395 and allowed a Michigan offense that was averaging 208 YPG passing in Big 10 play to throw for over 400 yards. Not surprising as Michigan State’s pass defense is terrible ranking 129th out of 130 FBS teams. That’s bad news this week vs a Purdue offense that loves to throw the ball and they are good at it ranking 14th nationally averaging 307 YPG through the air. MSU has had a number of tight games in which they were actually outplayed on the stat sheet. They’ve actually been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games. They struggled with Nebraska at home winning in OT and nearly were upset @ Indiana winning by just 5 points. While they are undefeated this team is not playing to that level having outgained their opponents by just +22 YPG this season. They face a solid Purdue team that comes in off a nice road win @ Nebraska. The Boilers also dominated Iowa a few weeks back 24-7 giving the Hawks their first loss of the season. They are very good defensively ranking 18th nationally and give up 110 fewer YPG than the Michigan State defense! The Spartans are going to get picked off very soon and we feel it happens right here. We like Purdue +3 at home.

#382 ASA PLAY ON 8* Troy -3.5 over South Alabama, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this situation for Troy. They should come in plenty rested for this match up. Their most recent game was a road loss @ Coastal Carolina on Thursday, October 28th and prior to that game they had a bye week. So they’ve had 10 days to prepare for this game and technically prior their game on Saturday, the Trojans have played 1 game in the last 19 days. South Alabama will be playing their 6th consecutive week as their bye was back in September. Troy has only played 1 home game since September 11th as 5 of their last 6 games have been on the road. They did win their only home game during that stretch and we expect them to be motivated for this rare game at home. We were impressed with their game @ Coastal Carolina, one of the top teams in the country currently ranked #21 in the AP poll. Troy took them to the wire on the road losing 35-28. After their turnover ridden 23-14 loss @ South Carolina in early October, a game Troy was actually favored by -2 points, the Trojans made a switch at QB as starter Powell was turning the ball over too much. Since switching to new QB Watson, they have won 2 of 3 games with their only loss coming to the aforementioned Coastal Carolina and he has completed almost 70% of his passes with 6 TD’s and 0 interceptions. South Alabama is definitely improved this season but they have been a very poor road team. Not only historically, but this year as well. They have played just 3 road games this year all vs poor competition. Those road game came vs UL Monroe (126th ranked in our power ratings out of 130 teams), Texas State (ranked 125th) and Bowling Green (ranked 114th). Despite the poor competition the Jaguars actually lost 2 of those games with their only road win coming @ Bowling Green by 3 points. Even in their win @ BG they were trailing by 7 points with 1:40 remaining in the game and scored 10 points in the final 1:39 to win. South Alabama was outgained on a yards per play basis in each of those 3 road games and by a combined 6.3 YPP to 4.9 YPP in those games. Taking a look at the Jaguars road record going back a few years they are just 3-17 since the start of the 2018 season and their road points per game margin is -15.7. Last year Troy was -4 @ USA and won 29-0. The previous year the Trojans were -17.5 at home and won by 24 points. Value with the short home favorite here. Take Troy.

#379 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Navy +21 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is the epitome of a potential rush doubling underdog with a Navy team that is 15th in the country in average rushing yards per game at 224RYPG, while Notre Dame averages just 130RYPG (94th). This is not the best scheduling situation for the Irish as they come off two big games against USC and North Carolina with Virginia on deck. It will be easy to look past this Navy team that has just 2 straight up wins on the season. But a closer look shows us the Midshipmen are on a 5-1 spread run and still undervalued by the oddsmakers here. Navy had an impressive showing two games ago when they took Cincinnati to the wire before losing by a TD as a 28.5-point underdog. That same Cincinnati team beat this Notre Dame team a few weeks ago in South Bend. This is the largest spread of the season for Notre Dame, and we don’t feel they can distance themselves here against a pesky Navy team that has been beaten by more than 21-points just once this season and that was the first game of the season. The Irish have one win over 21 points this year and that was a fluke as Wisconsin gifted them 3 INT’s, two of which were pick 6’s late in the game.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 pm ET - Miami continues to play at a very high level while Boston is not. The Heat are 6-1 SU on the season with their lone loss coming in OT in Indiana. Miami has the highest average point differential in the NBA at +16.7PPG, are 2nd in both offensive and defensive efficiency and enjoy a scheduling advantage of being off last night. Boston on the other hand is 19th in defensive efficiency and 21st in offensive efficiency with the 21st worst average point differential in the league. The Celtics are also coming off a game last night. Boston has 3 wins on the season and two of those have come against Houston and Orlando who a combined 3-13 SU this season. The Heat are on a 5-0 spread run while Boston is 0-5 ATS their last five as a road dog. Back the better team, laying a marginal number at home against an over-rated opponent.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:10 pm ET - If I gave you one guess who the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA is you’ll probably say Golden State. That’s a good guess, but the answer is actually the Charlotte Hornets at 41.1%. The Hornets are the highest scoring team in the league at 117.5PPG and look a little like the Warriors of old. Don’t get me wrong, the Warriors are still a upper echelon team but they’ve won a few close games with their of their wins this season coming by 8 points or less. Charlotte has quality wins this season against Portland and Brooklyn and are more than capable of winning this game outright. Last season these two teams played a pair of tight contests with the Warriors winning by 9 at home and Charlotte winning by 2 on their floor. The Hornets have covered 4 straight when coming off a loss and we’ll back them here with the points.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over Sacramento King, 9:10 PM ET - At first glance you might think this is a high number but in reality, it’s low based on their meeting on October 22nd when the Jazz were favored by 6-points in Sacramento. Utah won that game by 9-points. Utah is 5-1 SU on the season with the 2nd best average margin of victory at +12.8PPG. The Kings are 3-3 SU with a negative differential of minus -2.8PPG. These two teams are similar in terms of offensive efficiency, but the Jazz are far superior in terms of defensive efficiency as they rank 3rd while the Kings are 25th. The Kings have matchup issues here as they’ve lost 5 straight to Utah with last year’s three wins coming by 22, 49 and 16-points. Lay the points with Utah.

ASA top play on 10* #542 Atlanta Hawks -5.5 over Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from last week when the Wizards beat the Hawks by 11-points in Washington. The interesting part of that games is the fact that the Hawks were -4-points IN Washington and are now laying -5.5-points here. The Hawks shot 55% in the game but the Wiz made 8 more free throws and 7 more 3-pointers. Atlanta then followed up that loss with a horrible showing against the Sixers and a 28-point loss. Back at home we like the Hawks to get a measure of revenge here against Washington. The Hawks are 2-0 at home this year with a 18-point and 26-point win. Atlanta was 25-11 SU last year at home with the 8th best average margin of victory at +6.3PPG. Washington is 17-22 SU their last 39 on the road. Expect a big game out of Trae Young and cast at home. Lay it!

#258 ASA PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -2.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Revenger from earlier this year for the Colts. They weren’t playing well at the time and lost 25-16 @ Tennessee. Indy has since started to play much better winning 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in a game they led by 16 in the 4th quarter. This is a rough spot for Tennessee. They are coming off back to back huge home games beating both Buffalo & KC. Now going on the road for the first time in 3 weeks. Their 3 road games haven’t been overly impressive. They lost at the NYJ giving the Jets their only win of the season. Their other 2 roadies were wins @ Seattle in OT (Tenn was down 24-9 at half), and they beat a bad Jacksonville team. They were outgained drastically in each of those games with a -1.2 YPP differential @ Seattle, -1.3 @ NY Jets, and -0.9 @ Jacksonville. We still feel the Titans are overvalued. They are 5-2 on the season yet their YPP differential is -0.4. DVOA agrees with us as they have the Titans ranked 20th in the NFL right now (Colts are 15th). Indy actually averages more YPP offensively (5.8 to 5.6) and allows less defensive (5.8 to 6.0). The Colts definitely have the better defense in this game and their offense is starting to come around. QB Wentz has been solid since getting over his early season injury throwing 8 TDs and no picks his last 4 games. RB Taylor has kept the offense very balanced averaging 138 total yards per game his last 4. With a record of 3-4 and a loss already @ Tennessee, this is a must win for the Colts at home. Lay it.

#196 ASA PLAY ON 10* Auburn -2.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Big mismatch situationally. Auburn is coming off a bye week where they were able to rest up and get healthy. Ole Miss will be playing their 5th straight week of brutally tough games without a break. That includes @ Bama, home vs Arkansas, @ Tennessee, home vs LSU, and now @ Auburn. The Rebel offense, while still good, has slowed down immensely since hitting their SEC slate. They were averaging 52.6 PPG in the non-conference but have been held to 31 points or less in 3 of their 4 SEC games. Their defense is among the worst in the nation ranking 100th in total defense and 98th in rush defense. The latter will be a problem here vs an Auburn rushing attack that puts up 198 YPG. The Tigers have a very solid offensive line and should dominated an Rebel defensive front that isn’t all that good and will most likely be worn down after the gauntlet they’ve faced over the last month. Auburn’s QB Nix looked great in his last game after getting a little extra motivation getting benched vs Georgia the previous week. He threw for 290 yards and had an 80% completion rate vs a solid Arkansas team. Auburn’s only 2 losses this year are at home vs Georgia (the best team in the nation) and @ Penn State when the Nittany Lions were at full strength. Ole Miss has played only 2 road games this season and one was a blowout loss @ Alabama and the other they had to hold on to be an OK Tennessee team 31-26. Night game in Auburn should be rockin’ and we’ll lay the small number.

#160 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona State -16 over Washington State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We love this spot situationally for ASU. The Devils are coming off a loss @ Utah in mid October and then a bye last week. Their goal this year has always been to win the Pac 12 South and their loss @ Utah put that goal in jeopardy. Well the Utes lost last week vs Oregon State so now ASU is right back at the top of the P12 South tied for first. Head coach Herm Edwards wrote a letter to his captains during the bye week letting them know their goals were back in play and it was time to get back down to business. This team was rejuvenated over their bye week and we expect a great game from them at home on Saturday. Washington State is in a tough spot. Almost half their coaching staff, including head coach Rolovich, was fired last week and they went all in emotionally and physically last week to win one for those that were terminated. They played host to BYU and lost by 2. Our word is the Cougs put everything they had into that game. Not only will they be emotionally spent, this team will be playing their 9th straight weekend without a break. Off last weekend’s tight home loss, without many of their leaders on the coaching staff, they must go on the road to play ASU. We don’t expect WSU to play well on Saturday under the circumstances. They don’t match up well with ASU no matter the circumstances. The Sun Devils will control the trenches here. They run the ball very well at 205 YPG and Wazzou is 86th nationally at stopping the run. The Cougers allowed BYU to gash them for 238 yards on the ground last week and now they face a team that is better than BYU at running the ball. This isn’t the explosive offense that WSU has had in the past as they rank 90th in scoring at 24 PPG. They’ll have problems keeping up here. This game is being played in the afternoon and the temperatures in Tempe will be around 90 degrees which is also a big negative for this tired WSU team that is not used to the heat. This has the makings of an easy win for ASU and we’ll lay the points.

#199 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cincinnati -26.5 over Tulane, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Cincy had a bit of a scare last Saturday beating Navy 27-20 as a 28 point favorite. Now they play a Tulane team we have rated lower than Navy but the spread is lower due to last week’s tight game. We expect a blow out here. Cincy head coach Fickell admitted he did not have his team prepared mentally for going on the road with a bullseye on their back facing a team they should destroy. The Bearcats didn’t play well and you can bet he’ll have them ready here. The 2 previous weeks they topped Temple 52-3 and UCF 56-21. This team needs style points and they proved in those game they won’t let up scoring TD’s 4th quarter of both of those games with huge leads. We project 50+ in this game for the Bearcats. They are facing a terrible Tulane defense that ranks 128th in both total defense and scoring defense (out of 131 teams). The Green Wave have allowed an average of 46 PPG vs FBS competition this year and in those 6 games they’ve allowed more than 50 points 3 times. Offensively Tulane has topped 21 points just twice in their last 5 games and in those 2 games they scored 26 vs SMU (84th ranked defense) and lost by 29 and they scored 29 vs ECU (104th ranked defense) and lost by 23. On top of that, there is a good chance their starting QB Pratt won’t play here. That would mean 3rd string freshman Kai Horton (back up is injured), whose thrown 3 career passes, would get the start. Not ideal vs the 9th ranked defense in the nation no matter which QB starts. Since topping FCS Morgan State back in early September, Tulane has lost 5 straight games by margins of 40, 7, 23, 18, and 29 points. Now they face a motivated top 5 team trying to impress for a run at College Football’s Final 4. This gets ugly.

#117 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iowa +3.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We’ll keep this one simple. Two poor offenses vs two top 10 type defenses. We don’t expect either team to have much success running the ball with Wisconsin’s defense allowing 1.9 YPC and Iowa’s allowing 2.7 YPC. Neither QB is great but we do trust Iowa’s Petras more than Wisconsin’s Mertz. Petras had a poor game 2 weeks ago at home vs Purdue with 4 interceptions but prior to that he had thrown 9 TD’s and 2 picks on the season. He at least gives the Hawkeyes a threat in the passing game averaging 190 YPG through the air. Mertz is a turnover machine. He has only 2 TD’s to go along with 7 picks & 4 fumbles on the season. He’s completed a total of 31 passes in his last 4 games. The Badgers have not threatened opposing teams in the passing game and don’t expect it here. This one looks like a low scoring slugfest (total set at 36) which may come down to turnovers. If that’s the case, while hard to project, we’d have to favor Iowa in that category. The Hawkeyes have forced 20 takeaways on the season and their turnover margin is +1.57 per game which is 3rd nationally. Wisconsin ranks 122nd in that stat at -1.00 per game. Possessions will be huge here and if Iowa can gain an extra possession or 2 that could be the difference. Much is being made of Wisconsin winning @ Purdue while Iowa lost at home vs Purdue the previous week. Let’s remember Iowa was coming off a HUGE game at home vs Penn State (an Iowa win) while Purdue was off a bye going into Iowa City. It was a perfect spot for the Boilers and we were on them. Last week Wisconsin caught Purdue off their huge win @ Iowa and took advantage of it. Here we get Iowa off a loss and coming in off a bye which is a great spot situationally. Even if the Badgers win which will be tough, this could very well be a 13-10, 16-13, 17-14 or 20-17 type game. Iowa is the play here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay +6.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Overreaction here to GB’s potential players being out. This line has moved all the way from -3 to -6.5 in favor of Arizona. WR Adams has not been ruled out and might play here if he has back to back negative Covid tests. Remember he did not test positive, he was simply in close contact. Even if he doesn’t play, the Packers have found a way to be successful without him in the lineup (6-0 with Adams out). This is one of the best teams in the NFL and capable of winning this game regardless of the situation. Let’s put this in perspective. This Arizona team was just favored by 6 at home vs SF a few weeks ago with rookie QB Lance making the first start of his career (Zona won the game 17-10 but they were outgained). Now they favored by a half point more vs Aaron Rodgers? Ridiculous. The last 3 QB’s the Cards have faced were Houston’s rookie Davis Mills, Cleveland’s injured Baker Mayfield, and SF’s rookie Lance. Talk about a huge step on for this defense on Thursday. GB is more than capable of running the ball effectively with RB’s Jones and Dillon vs an Arizona defense that ranks 31st allowing 5.0 YPC. If they can do that and open up play action for Rodgers, this game will be close throughout. The Cards have played 3 home games this year and 2 of those went to the wire vs SF (with rookie QB) and Minnesota (Vikes missed potential game winning FG as time expired). Their only easy home win was last Sunday vs a terrible Houston team. Green Bay’s defense ranks 7th in the NFL allowing 20.8 PPG and since their season opening debacle @ New Orleans, they’ve allowed an average of just 18 PPG. We don’t see Arizona running away with this game. GB has been tabbed an underdog just 3 times in their last 25 games and the highest number during that stretch was +3 this year @ SF a game GB won. Getting almost a full TD with Aaron Rodgers at QB is worth a take. Green Bay is the play.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - This is a big game in the East between two teams that could contend at seasons end. Brooklyn is clearly led by the two-headed monster of Harden and Durant but they miss Kyrie and his playmaking ability. The Heat added Kyle Lowry in the offseason to pair with Jimmy Butler and Adebayo to get over the hump. Miami has gotten great play from Tyler Herro off the bench who gives them a legitimate scorer with the second unit. The Nets are 2-2 SU on the season and were just a -5.5-point favorite at home over Washington, who isn’t at the same level of this Heat team. Miami could easily be 3-0 this season as their lone loss came in OT at the Pacers. The Heat blew out the Bucks earlier this season while the Nets lost in Milwaukee. Brooklyn isn’t anything special as a home favorite with a 19-17 ATS record since the start of last season. Miami was a top 10 defensive team a year ago while Brooklyn was a bottom 10 team. Give me the dog and points here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +4 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Would not be comfortable laying points on the road with this Saints offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in a number of key categories. They rank 29th in YPG, 25th in YPP, and they have the worst passing YPG differential in the NFL at -105. Since catching the Packers off guard in week 1, the Saints are 2-2 and have been outgained in all 4 of those games (wins vs Washington & New England). In those 4 games vs marginal competition (NE, Wash, Caro, and NYG) New Orleans has been outgained by 387 total yards. All 4 of those teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in total offense and all have losing records. Their wins vs Washington (by 11 points) and New England (by 15 points) are a bit misleading. Versus Washington the Saints scored on a hail mary pass at the end of the first half which gave them a lead at half when it should have been tied. Take that away and they win by 5 points vs a bad Washington team. Versus New England they scored on a pick 6 and they were +3 turnovers but got outgained on a YPP basis by the Pats. New Orleans is coming off a bye week but let’s remember Seattle has had some solid rest as well having 10 days between their games vs Rams & Steelers (most recent game) and now an extra day as well playing on Monday night. Not a big advantage for New Orleans in our opinion. QB Geno Smith has had more time to acclimate himself as the starter and he played pretty well last Sunday vs one of the top defenses in the NFL. He completed 71% of his passes for over 200 yards and 1 TD vs the Steelers in Seattle’s 3-point loss in OT. The defense isn’t great but they did step up last week holding Pittsburgh to 4.9 YPP. They won’t have to be great here vs this New Orleans offense. Rain and wind expected in Seattle tonight and a low scoring game is expected (total at 41.5). We expect a big effort from Seattle in prime time in their first home game since losing Russell Wilson. We anticipate a close game throughout with Seattle having a chance to pull the upset. Take the points.

ASA play on 8* #472 San Francisco 49ers -4 over Indianapolis Colts - Coming off a bye week and 3 game losing skid we expect coach Shanahan to have his team ready to play. The Niners expert to have QB Jimmy Garoppolo back here from a calf injury so expect the Niner offense to improve on their 10-point outing against the Cardinals with rookie Trey Lance under center. In their game against the Cardinals the 49ers did manage 382 yards of offense and outgained Arizona by 34-yards but four 4th down stops, key penalties and an INT spoiled several scoring opportunities. The 49ers have 3 losses this season, two came against the 5-1 Packers and 6-0 Cardinals. In their other loss they outgained the Seahawks by 223 total yards but inexplicably lost by 7-points. Let’s not get carried away by the Colts recent two wins as they came against Miami and Houston who have a combined 2 wins on the season. The Niners rate better in terms of offensive and defensive DVOA, are rested and in a desperate situation at home. San Fran has covered 3 straight when coming off a bye week and they’ve won those games by an average of +16PPG. Let’s also consider the 49ers were just a -3.5-point favorite a few weeks ago against the Packers which makes this line very appealing versus the Colts.

#468 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tampa Bay -11.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Bears. They like to establish the run as their passing attack is remedial at best. Chicago is the only team in the NFL with less than 50% of their yardage coming from the passing game. The problem here is, it’s really tough to run on the Bucs. They are allowing just 54 YPG on 3.4 YPC. It’s gotten to a point where teams don’t even try to run on Tampa as just 27% of opposing plays have been on the ground – least in the NFL. If Chicago can’t run, they are in huge trouble. Their offense has zero chance of keeping up in this game. The Bears rank last in the NFL averaging 4.3 YPP. They are averaging just 16.3 PPG which is 30th in the NFL and they’ve scored only 10 offensive TD’s in 6 games this season. Rookie QB Fields has played been the starter for 4.5 games now (came in at halftime of Cincinnati game) and he’s only completing 53% of his passes for an average of 138 passing yards per game. He’s thrown only 2 TD passes this year and the Bears as a whole have thrown only 3 TD passes which is the fewest in the NFL. They have topped 300 total yards just once in their last 5 games and that was vs a bad Detroit defense. Those offensive numbers won’t get it done here. Tampa will score points. They are averaging 32.5 PPG and at home they are putting up a remarkable 41 PPG this season. They’ve been a double digit favorite their last 2 home games and blasted Atlanta 48-25 and Miami 45-17. They’ve had extra time to get ready for this having played in Philadelphia on Thursday night. This is a revenger as they lost to Chicago last year in the infamous Brady lost track of what down it was game. He takes that stuff to heart and you can bet he wants to blast Chicago here. Double digit favorites in the NFL have been a successful 7-2 ATS this season and as long as this one stays under 14 points we’ll lay it as Chicago’s offense won’t be able to score enough to get this cover.

#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech +6.5 vs UTSA, 7 PM ET - Meep, meep…here come the 7-0 #24 ranked UTSA Roadrunners! This is uncharted territory for UTSA who has never been ranked in the top 25 ever before and the impact in the line is evident. The Roadrunners have played the 96th easiest schedule to date with their best win coming against an average 4-3 Memphis team. Their other five FBS wins have come against teams with a combined 8-23 SU record. LA Tech comes into this huge conference showdown off an embarrassing 3-19 performance versus UTEP and will be primed for a game against a ranked opponent. In their game versus UTEP the Bulldogs had 3 crucial turnovers, 2 failed 4th down conversions and only scored once in five possessions in the red zone. Prior to that game, LA Tech had scored in 15 of 16 RZ trips. The Bulldogs have faced the much tougher schedule to date with 2-point loss to 6-0 SMU, 1-pt loss to SEC Mississippi State and a 7-point loss to 18th ranked NC State. The Bulldogs could very well have won all three of those games. UTSA is 10-2 ATS their last twelve road games BUT they were underdogs in all but one of those and they failed to cover as a road favorite. Since 2019 LA Tech has been a home dog just 4 times and they’ve covered three with an average loss margin of just -0.5PPG.

#359 ASA PLAY ON 8* Temple +2.5 over South Florida, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - This is a perfect spot to play on Temple who we have power rated as the better team in this game. The Owls had last week off after getting trounced @ Cincinnati. No alarm with that game as the Bearcats have shown they are going all in on attempting to destroy lesser competition to make a statement with the selection committee. Last week Cincy beat a solid UCF team by 35 points so they rolling over everyone they possibly can. While Temple was resting last week, USF lost a 1-point game as Tulsa scored a TD with 47 seconds remaining to grab the 36-35 win. The Bulls will be demoralized after that loss. However, while it may look like they played Tulsa tough, USF was destroyed in the stat sheet. The Bulls were outgained 535 to 268 and out rushed by 2.0 YPC. Tulsa had 3 turnovers in the game (1 for USF) and in the 2nd quarter the Bulls scored 3 TD’s on a 12 yard drive after a turnover, a 69 yard pick 6, and a 100 yard kickoff return. As you can see the score was quite misleading. The fact is USF has not beaten an FBS opponent since 2019 which means they are 0-17 SU their last 17 vs FBS opponents! If you throw out their game vs Florida A&M, who they only outgained by 24 yards, USF has been outgained in every game by a combined 1,105 yards in their other 5 contests or an average of -221 YPG. Temple, prior to getting smoked by Cincinnati, had been playing their best FB. They had outgained 4 straight opponents entering their game vs Cincy and they were coming off a win over Memphis. The Owls are getting outgained by an average of just 8 YPG but their YPP differential on the season is +0.2. They also played 2 games this season without their starting QB Mathis (Georgia transfer) but they have a 2-2 record with him in the line up with their only losses coming @ Rutgers & @ Cincinnati. The Owls defense has played very well for the most part allowing just 5.2 YPP which is nearly a full 2 YPP better than USF’s stop unit that allowed 7.0 YPP. Temple is the better overall team in the much better situation and they are getting points. Play Temple.

#345 ASA PLAY ON 8* Maryland +5 over Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The Terps had a bye last week and they needed it. They were rolled the previous 2 weeks by Iowa & Ohio State, two top 5 teams at the time. Those blowout losses are giving us some value here on the Terps as they regrouped over the last 2 weeks and will play well here. Their loss vs Iowa was a game Maryland had 7 turnovers which big contributor to the final score. Two weeks ago they were simply overwhelmed @ OSU, a team that is playing as well as anyone in the country right now. Prior to those 2 losses, the Terps were 4-0. This Saturday they take a big step down in competition as they face Minnesota. The Gophers are off a home win over Nebraska but this offense has been struggling. Last week they looked good in the first half coming off their bye week, but the 2nd half was telling for the Minnesota offense as they fell back into struggle mode. They were held scoreless for much of the 2nd half with the defense getting a safety with just over 4:00 remaining and the offense getting a late TD with just over 2:00 left in the game. Their offense averaged less than 5 YPP in the 2nd half and had only one drive of more than 5 plays. Prior to last week the Gophs offense was outright poor getting held to 300 yards or less in 3 of their previous 4 games including games vs MAC opponents Miami OH and Bowling Green. They lost at home vs BG and nearly lost to Miami OH. The Gophers are down their top 2 RB’s who are out for the season. Maryland is banged up at WR but they are fairly deep at that position. These 2 have faced similar strength of schedule to date and Maryland is +128 YPG and +0.8 YPP – Minnesota is +25 YPG and +0.2 YPP. We feel Minnesota is definitely a step down from last year’s team and Maryland is better this season. When then met last year Maryland won by 1-point but outgained the Gophers by 225 yards. Too many points here so we grab Maryland.

#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State +5.5 over Coastal Carolina, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - CC is undefeated this season but their schedule has been one of the easiest in the country. App State will be by far the best team they’ve faced this year. Coastal’s strength of schedule ranks 159th in the nation when including FCS teams schedules which says a lot since there are only 130 FBS teams. To date they have faced Citadel, Kansas, Buffalo, UMass, UL Monroe, and Arkansas State. Not one of those teams ranks inside the Sagarin top 100 and their combined record is 11-26. App State is 4-2 on the season but they’ve played 4 teams that are better than any opponent CC has faced (Miami FL, ECU, UL Lafayette, and Marshall). It’s really tough to even strongly consider their offensive stats when the FBS teams they’ve faced currently rank 130th, 129th, 118th, 116th, and 113th in total defense (out of 130). On the other side of the ball the Chanticleer defense has faced only one offense ranked higher than 71st. App State has 2 losses on the season, a 2-point setback at Miami FL where the Canes needed a late FG to get the win and their most recent game @ ULL. That was by far their worst performance of the year getting blown out by a very solid ULL team but committing 4 turnovers leading to 21 points for ULL. App State was also 0 of 11 on third downs. Just a terrible performance by a solid team and we expect them to bounce back and play very well at home. These 2 met last year in Coastal where App was a 3-point dog and lost by 11. They outgained CC by 45 yards in that game. Now they are getting more points at home this year vs a team that hasn’t played anybody. CC has played 2 road games this year and one of those vs Buffalo went to the wire and turned out as a 3-point win for Coastal. This game will be much tougher. CC hasn’t played in almost 2 weeks which isn’t ideal at this time of year. App State has been great at home where they have a 29-3 record their last 32 and all 3 of those losses were by a FG or less. This sets up for an upset on Wednesday night and we like App State + the points.

#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +6.5 over Buffalo, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bills are overvalued right now with their string of blowouts + a win over KC last weekend. Let’s remember that, while impressive, their last 4 wins have come vs Miami (with Brissett making first start this year at QB), Washington (with QB Heinicke making 2nd start), Houston (with rookie Mills at QB) and KC (who turned the ball over 4 times in the game to 0 for Buffalo & KC ain’t the KC of last year as they are 3-3 on the season). This is also a terrible spot for the Bills. They focused much of their off-season on beating KC in that game last week after losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game last year. That was, in essence, their regular season Super Bowl. Now they go on the road in a game the opener was set at -3 and it’s been bet up to nearly a TD. The Tennessee offense is getting healthy again as WR’s Jones is expected back tonight. RB Henry has rushed for nearly 4,800 yards in his last 40 games and they are very dangerous offensively if they can mix up the run and pass. We think they’ll do that tonight vs Bills team that has solid numbers vs the run but they’ve faced 4 rushing attacks ranked 19th or lower this season. This Tennessee coaching staff knows something about beating the Bills. Last year Buffalo strolled into town with an impressive 9-2 record favored by 3 vs this Titans. They left with a 42-16 loss. It was one week after the Bills played KC very similar to this situation. The dog has covered 6 straight in this series and let’s not act as of this Tennessee team is some slouch. They are 3-2 this year so this is a huge game for them and they won the AFC South a season ago. We’re not talking about Jacksonville or the NY Jets here. They are a playoff caliber team getting nearly a TD at home. This one stays close throughout and we’ll take the points.

#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - We love the way this one has set up. We’re getting one of the top teams in the NFL, Cleveland, off a loss and back at home. They are 3-2 on the season with down to the wire losses @ KC and @ LA Chargers and this is a huge game for them. The Browns lost 37-32 @ LA last week but outgained the Chargers in overall yardage and on a YPP basis. They were also +117 yards on the ground racking up 230 yards rushing on 6.6 YPC. Their defense underperformed last week but still rank 7th in YPP allowed even with that showing. The D should also be well rested having not been on the field for more than 25 minutes (out of 60 minutes) in any of their last 4 games. Arizona comes in 5-0 and ready to be plucked. Last week they played host to division rival San Francisco and won 17-0 despite being outgained on both a total yard and YPP basis. That was a Niner team with a rookie QB making his first start and SF has many opportunities to win that game. The Cards are off back to back division games so this is a nice letdown spot for them. It’s also a terrible match up for their defense. Cleveland is the best running team in the NFL averaging 187 YPG on 5.4 YPC. Arizona’s defense ranks 28th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in YPC allowed. Not only that, the Cards give up big plays in the running game allowing an average of 5 carries per game of 10+ yards (last in the NFL) and they are 31st in the NFL on yardage allowed on carries of 10 yards or more. Bad news for them is Cleveland’s running game leads the NFL in yards gained on carries of 10 or more yards. So Cleveland won’t need their passing attack to pick up chunk yardage on Sunday. With the successful running game will come a great play action pass attack which is perfect for Baker Mayfield. If he’s asked to carry a team in the passing game, he can struggle, but if he is just complementary to their running game, he can be very good and so can Cleveland’s offense. Arizona also relies on running the ball but they are facing a MUCH tougher Cleveland defense allowing just 3.4 YPG (3rd in the NFL). It’s supposed to be windy in Cleveland so the Browns dominance in the running game will be even more pronounced. On top of that, Arizona has been hit by Covid this week and one of their top defensive players, DE Chandler Jones, will be out. Who knows if there are more to come? Arizona QB Murray has been limited in practice this week due to a shoulder injury and his top target WR Hopkins may not play on Sunday due to an illness which we might assume is Covid since it has hit the team. Another one of Murray’s top targets, TE Williams is now out for the year after getting injured last Sunday. Despite their records, our power ratings have Cleveland the better team. They are +1.2 YPP differential while the undefeated Cards are +0.7 YPP. Now we’re getting what we feel is the better team, in a much more desperate situation at home coming off a loss. Cleveland is the play here.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia -21.5 over Kentucky, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UGA has allowed 2 TD’s the entire season – just 5.5 PPG given up. Kentucky offense isn’t great throwing the ball, they rely on the run and no way they get that done here vs UGA defensive front (allows 2 YPC). UGA will be motivated here as UK is undefeated and ranked 11th – they shouldn’t be – Wildcats have already faced 2 of the 3 worst teams in the SEC (Mizzou & South Carolina) and won those games by 7 points & 6 points. Since season opener vs Clemson (10-3 final) the Dawgs offense has scored an average of 46 PPG and they have not scored less than 34. With a defense that has allowed 2 TD’s ALL YEAR, that means they are blowing out everyone. UGA is covering by an average of 15 PPG (#1 in the country) and their scoring margin is +34 PPG which is #1 nationally. This is just 2nd road game for UK and they struggled for a 16-10 win @ South Carolina in their other road tilt. Two weeks ago UGA played host to then undefeated and #8 ranked Arkansas who was looking great and scoring lots of points averaging 35 PPG entering the game – UGA won 37-0 and held Arkansas to 162 total yards. Arkansas offense is better than Kentucky’s and we see a similar result in this game. Just like Arky, the Wildcats might not score in this game. UGA rolls to another big win and cover.

#163 ASA PLAY ON 8* Fresno State -3.5 over Wyoming, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Fresno comes in off a bye week and a loss @ Hawaii the previous week. That 17-14 setback was very misleading with FSU outgaining Hawaii by 160 yards. Bulldog top notch QB Haener had perhaps the worst game of his career throwing 4 interceptions in that game all inside the Hawaii 15 yard line! Basically taking away 4 scoring chances and they still only lost by a FG. For the season he had completed 70% of his passes for over 2,200 yards and 18 TD’s with just 2 total picks in his other games. Just an aberration and a motivating one at that. Fresno’s other loss this season came @ Oregon by 7 in a game they outgained the Ducks. They also outgained UCLA by 174 yards in a win on the Bruins home field. This team is very good, coming off a bye and a tough loss which sets up nicely. Wyoming lost @ Air Force last week. The Cowboys are outgaining their opponents by only 13 YPG despite playing a very easy schedule that includes Montana State, Northern Illinois, UConn, and Ball State. It’s not as if the Cowboys are rolling over this suspect competition as they struggled to beat FCS Montana State by 3 points and UConn, the lowest ranked team in FBS, by 2 points. That’s the same UConn team that Fresno beat 45-0 this season. The Wyoming defense was preparing for the option attack of Air Force last week and now they have to completely switch gears facing a top notch passing attack this week. Fresno ranks 3rd nationally averaging 380 YPG through the air and the 4 FBS teams that the Cowboys have faced thus far rank 128, 124, 120, and 78 in passing offense. This will be a really tough adjustment for Wyoming. We like the better team, off a bye, off a loss, and they’ve played the much tougher slate (outplayed 2 Pac 12 teams as we mentioned above). Take Fresno.

#181 ASA PLAY ON 8* Purdue +12 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We see no way the Hawkeyes have their complete focus for this game. They are coming off a top 10 match up vs Penn State in what was a wild Saturday in Iowa City. We had some friends in the stands for that game and they said the energy from the crowd was off the charts. Iowa was down 17-3 in the game when PSU lost their QB Clifford for the rest of the game with an injury. From that point on, with 12:30 to go in the 2nd quarter, the Penn State offense gained a total of 50 yards. Back up QB Roberson, who had 8 career pass attempts entering the game, was overwhelmed by Iowa’s defense and completed just 7 passes. Even with that Iowa was barely able to squeak out a 23-20 win. Now after that game and with big time rival Wisconsin on deck, the Hawkeyes will be flat here. Purdue is solid this season and they are coming off a bye. They are coming off a 20-13 loss to Minnesota in a game they outgained the Gophers by 150 yards. The Boilers have outgained every opponent they’ve faced this year including their game @ Notre Dame. Their defense is solid ranking 16th nationally allowing just 300 YPG on 4.8 YPP. They should be able to stay in this game facing an Iowa offense that ranks 110th nationally putting up only 317 YPG. Iowa’s YPP differential is nothing to write home about at +0.6 YPP but they’ve been gifted with a ridiculous +18 TO margin in just 6 games! That includes +3 last week vs PSU with their back up QB and again they still only won by a FG. If Purdue can limit turnovers, they’ll have a shot to pull the upset here. Iowa’s offense isn’t good enough to pull away from a solid defense off a bye week. This has been a close series with the last 3 meetings being decided by a total of 12 points. Dangerous spot here for the Hawkeyes and we’ll take the underdog.

#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska -4 over Minnesota, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We were on the Huskers last week and wound up with a push as they lost by 3 to Michigan. Nebraska fumbled in their own territory late in that game setting up the Wolverines for the game winning kick. Nebraska has been tested as much as any team in the country over the past month. They have faced three top 10 teams and stood toe to toe with all of them. They lost at Oklahoma by a TD yet outgained the Sooners on a YPP basis. A week later they traveled to undefeated Michigan State and lost in OT despite outgaining the Spartans by 186 yards! Then last week their close loss to Michigan. Those 3 teams are a combined 18-0 and Nebraska was close to winning each of those games. The only team they’ve faced in the last month that wasn’t in the top 10 was Northwestern and they beat the Wildcats 56-7. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been struggling with lower tier opponents. Their last 4 games they almost lost at home to Miami OH, won @ Colorado, lost at home to Bowling Green, and then beat Purdue but were outgained by 150 yards. The first 3 teams listed rank 104, 105, and 144 in College Football Sagarin ratings. Bowling Green, who beat Minnesota in Minneapolis, just lost at home by 15 points to an Akron team that had a record of 1-26 their last 27 games! The Gophers rely heavily on their ground game and they are now down to their 3rd string RB after losing starter Ibrahim in the season opener and then back up Potts was lost for the season in their most recent game vs Purdue. Their offense has put up an average of just 15 PPG and 270 YPG over their last 2 games. Nebraska’s offense is humming against top notch competition averaging over 500 YPG in their last 6 games. We see no way Minnesota will be able to keep up here. They take a huge step up in competition and if they are struggling to beat middle of the pack MAC teams at home, they’re in trouble here. The Huskers are +1.8 YPP differential on the season while Minnesota is just +0.2 YPP despite the difference in their schedule strength. Nebraska is MUCH better than their record and we see a double digit win on Saturday. Lay the small number with the Huskers.

#475 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco +5.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Arizona has started the season a perfect 4-0 while San Fran is off back to back home losses vs Green Bay & Seattle. Thus, this line is higher than it should be according to our power ratings. If this was the season opener, we’re looking at right around pick-em for a line and now we get the Niners at +5. Arizona was very fortunate in their only home tilt this year as the Vikings missed a FG at the buzzer that would have given them the win (Zona won 34-33). They struggled to a 31-19 win @ Jacksonville but the Cards were trailing 19-10 late in the 3rd quarter in that game when a pick 6 turned the game around (Jax also had 4 TO’s). After picking up a nice win last week @ LA Rams (Rams were in letdown spot of win over Bucs) the Cardinals stock is a bit high right now. San Fran lost 28-21 at home to Seattle last week but they dominated the stat sheet with a +2.0 YPP differential, +1.1 YPC differential, and 9 more first downs. Starting QB Garoppolo was injured and rookie QB Lance came in an did very well in the 2nd half. While Lance was in the game the 49ers outgained Russell Wilson and the Seahawks 230 to 170 so he played well. It looks like he will most likely start this weekend which will be tough on Arizona with San Francisco bringing an entirely different offensive gameplan to the table that HC Shanahan has been waiting to unleash. The Cardinal defense will be running blind in this one as far as being able to game plan for the SF offense. The last 14 times San Francisco was coming off back to back losses as favorites, they were 11-3 ATS in their next game. This has been an underdog series with the puppy going 5-0-1 ATS the last 6 meetings including 4 outright wins. Last year the Niners were 6 point underdogs @ Arizona with CJ Beathard at QB and won the game! This is a buy low (SF) / sell high (Arizona) spot for us and we like the 49ers to get the cover.

#346 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -3 over San Jose State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Big time red flags over the last month with this SJSU team. Their travel schedule has been brutal and it’s started to show. This will be their 4th road game in their last 5 games. Since September 4th they have played @ USC, @ Hawaii (long travel), @ Western Michigan (long travel), at home last week vs a terrible NM State team and now @ CSU who is coming off a bye week. In their most recent 3 games the Spartans did beat Hawaii 17-13 but they only gained 291 yards on 3.7 YPP vs a Rainbow defense that allows 5.4 YPP on the season (ranked 67th). SJSU then went to Western Michigan and got rolled 23-3 while getting outgained by 228 yards. Last week they played host to New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in college football, and won 37-31 and only outgained the Aggies by 19 yards. That’s an “almost” home loss to a NM State that that is 1-6 this season (only win vs an FCS team) and has won only 5 of their last 26 games. Starting QB Starkel didn’t play in that game and might not here. CSU has shown some solid growth over the last month beating a solid Toledo team on the road 22-6 and they followed that up with a tight 24-14 loss @ #3 Iowa, a game they led at halftime. The Rams outgained Toledo and were out yarded by just 28 total yards vs the Hawkeyes. This team is rested and headed in the right direction. Their opponent SJSU is not. Lay the small number in this one.

#316 ASA PLAY ON 8* Rutgers +5.5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Is MSU vastly improved over last year’s team that finished with a 2-5 record? Sure. Are they the 11th best team in the country (currently ranked #11)? No chance. They are going to get knocked off here soon and this could be the weekend. MSU has beaten Northwestern (worst team in the Big 10 this year), Youngstown State, Miami FL (Canes had 4 turnovers in the game and currently have a 2-3 record), Nebraska in OT (Huskers outgained MSU by nearly 200 yards in the game), and Western KY. This is a very dangerous game for a 5-0 team that wasn’t very good last year laying nearly a TD on the road. Their offense is solid but the Spartan defense allows 428 YPG which makes it tough to lay lumber on the road in the Big 10 vs a Rutgers defense that is more than 100 yards per game better than MSU’s (Rutgers allows 320 YPG). Rutgers is coming off a blowout loss to Ohio State which was HC Schiano’s worst game rejoining the program as the head man. He’ll have his team ready this week. A week prior to their loss vs OSU, this team lost @ Michigan by 7 points and outplayed the Wolverines outgaining them by 77 yards and beating them in the trenches averaging 4.7 YPC while allowing just 2.9 YPC. A win there, which they should of and could have had, and this Rutgers team would be 4-1 with their only loss coming vs Ohio State. MSU hasn’t been on the road since September 18th and in their 2 road games thus far they were 3-point dogs @ Northwestern and 7-point dogs @ Miami. Now they are laying nearly a TD at Rutgers? This is a bad line and the Scarlet Knights will give MSU all they can handle here. Close game and we take the points.

#361 ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia +3 over Baylor, Saturday at 12 PM ET - WVU is the better team here and we like them to win this game outright. The Mountaineers have played the much tougher schedule having already faces Oklahoma, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Texas Tech. Baylor played one of the easiest schedules through their first 3 games facing Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Since that they’ve faced Iowa State and Oklahoma State and Baylor has been dominated in the stat sheet in those 2 games getting outgained by over 300 yards. They were lucky to beat ISU by 2 points at home as they were outgained by almost 200 yards and benefited from a 98 yard kickoff return for TD. The Baylor offense caught ISU off guard in that game with some things they didn’t show in their first three games vs bad opponents. Once the Cyclones made their adjustments, Iowa State held the Bears to just 65 yards in the 2nd half. Thus in the last game and a half (since halftime of ISU game) the Baylor offense has generated just 345 total yards on 82 offensive plays (4.2 YPP). Now they face a WVU defense that is playing great allowing just 313 total yards and 346 total yards the last 2 games to potent offenses (Oklahoma & Texas Tech). Baylor will really struggle on offense in this game. The Baylor defense is in the same situation. Solid stats because of their weak schedule. However, in the last 2 games once they hit Big 12 play the Bears defense has allowed 440 YPG. WVU has covered the last 3 years in this series by a combined 51 points and we like them to win on Saturday. Take the points.

#307 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +29.5 over Cincinnati, Friday at 7 PM ET - This is a classic letdown spot for the Bearcats. They are coming off games vs Indiana & Notre Dame and they have UCF on deck. All off-season the talk was if this team can get by IU and the Irish they have a great shot at an undefeated season. Those 2 games were this teams “Super Bowls” so to speak and playing a home game as nearly a 30 point favorite after beating the Irish will be tough. The only other potential roadblock on their way to an undefeated season is probably UCF next week so focusing on Temple won’t be easy. The Owls are better than people might think. Their defense is very solid allowing just 313 YPG on 4.6 YPP. Last week they held a potent Memphis offense to just 5.8 YPP and the Tigers had just 385 total yards of offense entering their final offensive possession with 2:30 remaining in the game. Memphis scored with 30 seconds left to cut the Temple lead to 3 points but the Owls held on to win. The Temple offense struggled in mid September but much of that was because their starting QB Mathis (Georgia transfer) was out with an injury. He’s been back for their last 2 games and led the Owls to 72 points while passing for over 600 yards and 2 TD’s. Now we don’t expect him to put up those numbers vs Cincy but he’ll do enough to keep them within this huge number. This isn’t the same Temple team that was routed by Rutgers in the season opener. They are much better and that game was extremely misleading as well with the Owls turning the ball over 6 times in that game. Because of that, we are still getting line value with Temple who is now at full strength. These two AAC rivals last met in 2019 and Cincinnati was a 7.5 point home favorite and beat Temple 15-13. Now they are laying almost 30 points! Temple has covered 5 straight in this series and we think their defense is solid enough to not let the Bearcat offense go wild in this game. Their offense is also underrated and may not need to score many points to keep this within the number. Take the points with Temple.

#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -2 over Seattle, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Rams. They are the better team and coming off a loss last Sunday at home vs Arizona. It wasn’t overly surprising as, despite it being a division game, it was a big time letdown spot for the Rams after beating up on Tampa Bay a week earlier. Despite their 37-20 loss to the Cards, the yardage was about dead even (6.3 YPP to 6.2 YPP) but LA had 2 key turnovers that directly led to 14 points for Arizona. The Rams also missed a FG and were shut out on downs at the Arizona 1-yard line. Seattle is coming off a game they had to win @ San Francisco after losing back to back games vs the Titans & Vikings. Those 2 losses don’t look great for Seattle now as Tennessee just lost to the Jets and Minnesota was ousted at home by Cleveland. The Seahawks did what they needed to do last week picking up a 28-21 win vs the Niners. It wasn’t all that impressive however as they were outgained by a wide margin (6.3 YPP to 4.3 YPP) and SF starting QB Garoppolo didn’t play in the 2nd half due to an injured leg leaving it up to inexperienced rookie Trey Lance. With Lance running the show in the 2nd half the 49ers actually outgained Seattle 230 to 172 but a key fumble from the rookie led to a 14 yard TD drive for the Seahawks which turned out to be the difference in the game. Seattle is also pretty banged up right now with 3 starters on both offense and defense possibly out on Thursday including top WR Metcalfe who has a foot injury. These 2 met 3 times last year (playoffs included) and the Rams won 2 of the 3 games including a 30-20 win @ Seattle in the playoffs and they outgained the Hawks 1,056 to 903. And that was with Jared Goff at QB not Matthew Stafford who is a big upgrade. Seattle used to be a covering machine at home but that hasn’t been the case as of late. They are just 8-10 ATS their last 18 home tilts dating back to the 2018 season. We like the better team, with the better defense, off a loss here. Take the Rams.

#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a must win for Seattle who sits at 1-2 after blowing double digit leads in each of the last 2 weeks vs Tennessee & Minnesota. The Seattle offense has been rolling as they are averaging 7.4 YPP which is tops in the NFL this season. San Fran’s offense is heading in the opposite direction. After lighting up a bad Detroit defense for 8 YPP in their opener the Niners have averaged just 4.5 and 4.6 YPP their last 2 games vs Philly & Green Bay. The 49ers have been outgained by 1.5 YPP in each of their last 2 games and they were extremely lucky to win @ Philly and lucky to even have a chance vs Green Bay. The defense has been struggling as well allowing 6.0+ YPP in each of those games as well which isn’t ideal facing a red hot Seahawks offense. They are also really banged up in the defensive backfield as it looks like they will have only 4 healthy corners on the roster. One of those players is coming back from injury (Moseley) and two were not even on the active roster vs Green Bay. We expect Russell Wilson to have a huge day. Wilson has dominated San Francisco since taking over as Seattle’s starting QB in 2012. He is 15-4 SU vs the Niners in his career. The Hawks have also NEVER lost 3 games in a row since Wilson took over. They have lost 2 straight just 8 times in Wilson’s career and they are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS after those losses. The Niners, on the other hand, have been a terrible home favorite with an ATS record of just 5-20-1 ATS in that role since 2014. The better QB in a must win spot getting points is a nice situation. Seattle is the play.

#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 -115 on Run Line over San Diego Padres, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET – The Padres got the upset win in extra innings yesterday but are just 2-12 last 14 games!  San Diego is 3-9 last 12 times they were off a win.  The Giants had won 9 of 10 games before yesterday's loss.  San Francisco, with a chance to lock up the NL West Division on the final day of the season, will respond here.  They will take advantage of facing Reiss Knehr.  The Padres righty is winless in his 4 starts this season and has allowed 7 earned runs in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in his last 3 starts.  San Francisco starts Logan Webb here.  The Giants are 20-5 in his starts this season including 11-0 at home where the righty is 5-0 with a 1.65 ERA on the year!  The Giants had a 7-game winning streak before losing a tight game last night and 6 of their last 8 victories were wins by a multiple-run margin!  Note that San Francisco's 106 wins this season have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin.  The Padres 82 losses have included 56 by more than a 1-run margin!  Also, the Giants are 71-27 in games against teams with a losing record this season.  Plenty of reason to expect a road blowout here.  Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -220 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a more reasonable -115 price range by utilizing the run line. Take San Francisco Giants 1.5 on the run line.

#256 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Jets +6.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - No sane bettor will want any part of the Jets but we do. Going back to 2015, teams off a shutout loss are 21-6-3 ATS their next game. 10-1 ATS if their opponent is off back-2-back wins, which applies here. In fact, the Dolphins were in this exact same scenario last week and nearly beat the Raiders outright. The line is the giveaway here as the oddsmakers are baiting you with a number under a touchdown. The public is heavy on the Titans, with over 62% of the tickets and 73% of the money bet on Tennessee, yet the line isn’t moving. Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson has struggled so far with just 2 TD’s to 7 INT’s However, he’s faced the Panthers, Patriots, and Broncos, all of whom rank in the top three in the NFL in passing yards allowed and net passing yards per attempt allowed. Now Wilson and the Jets face a Titans D that ranks 18th in passing yards allowed per game (259PYPG) and rank 25th in passing yards per attempt allowed (7.8). The Titans’ strength is their offense, but they may be short a few weapons at the WR spot with Julio Jones and A.J Brown both out. Again, after facing three quality defenses the Jets should have some success moving the ball against this Titans D which is average in yards allowed per game and have given up 30+ points twice already. Since 2016 Tennessee is 7-12 ATS as a road favorite and they’ve won those games by an average of just 1.7PPG. Since 2015 the Jets are 15-10-1 ATS as a home dog and they’ve lost those games by just -4.8PPG. Plug your nose and bet New York.

#263 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Giants +7 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Giants are 0-3 but they’ve been competitive each of the last 2 weeks losing by 1 & 3 points. Their YPP differential on the season is basically dead even and we feel this team is better than their 0-3 record. The Saints have no right being favored by a TD. Their offense is one of the most pedestrian in the league averaging 4.3 YPP (29th). On top of that, their QB Winston is a turnover machine (121 turnovers by HIMSELF in 75 stars) and if you lose the turnover battle in the NFL it’s extremely tough to win, much less by more than a TD which is where they sit here if they want to cover. In their 2 wins they were gifted a combined 6 turnovers by Green Bay & New England. They scored 38 points vs GB despite only gaining 322 total yards and last week put up 25 vs the Patriots on just 252 yards of offense. Two deceiving wins have pushed this line to a TD vs the Giants. The fact is, despite their 2-1 record, the Saints are getting outgained by 70 yards per game and their YPP differential is -0.5. The Giants have been very solid on the road losing by more than a single score just ONCE in their last 14 games. They have also been a huge money maker as a road dog covering 17 of their last 20 in that spot. We think the Giants have a shot to win outright here. Take the generous points.

#178 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -3.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Okie State has played the MUCH tougher schedule here and they are 4-0 on the season. 3 of their wins have come vs Tulsa (who played Ohio St to the wire on the road), @ Boise State, and last week at home vs KSU. We have been impressed with their progression the last few weeks. Starting QB Sanders missed the first game of the season, struggled a bit vs Tulsa and Boise, but hit his stride last week throwing for 344 yards at home in a 31-20 win over Kansas State. His top WR Martin returned after missing the last 2 games and had 9 catches for 100 yards. The OSU defense has been playing lights out allowing just 2.6 YPC and 4.5 YPP on the season. They have allowed just 123 yards rushing total in their last 2 games vs Boise & KSU (2 YPC). That will be a problem for a Baylor team that prefers to run the ball (41 rushing attempts per game). The Bears are undefeated, however their first 3 wins were vs Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Their win last week vs Iowa State at home was one of the more misleading finals of the season. ISU gained 480 yards on 6.6 YPP in the game. Baylor gained 282 total yards on 5.2 YPP. The Bears offense scored TD’s on their first 3 possessions of the game on 206 total yards. After that, they totaled 66 yards on 30 plays for barely 2 YPP. The Bears didn’t have to show much offensively in their first 3 games vs terrible opponents and they surprises the Cyclones with some new looks, plays, and wrinkles on offense. Once the ISU defense settled in Baylor did almost nothing. Their only points after the first 3 possessions came on a 98 yard kickoff return and a short FG after a long punt return. The favorite has covered 15 of the last 21 meetings and the home team has covered 13 of the last 19. We like OSU at home.

#151 ASA PLAY ON 8* Nevada +5 over Boise State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We love this spot for Nevada. They had last week off to get ready for this game and they are coming off a loss 2 weeks ago @ Kansas State. In that game Nevada was actually favored by 1.5 to 2 points on the road and they are now getting nearly a full TD @ Boise State, a team we have power rated lower than KSU. Boise State just isn’t the program they once were. They are 2-2 on the season and have been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this year. The only team they outgained was UTEP and that final score was very misleading as the Miners turned the ball over SIX times in that game. For the season the Broncos are -50 YPG and -0.4 YPP. Last week they beat Utah State 27-3 but that was another misleading final score as the Aggies outgained Boise on both a YPG and YPP basis but had 3 turnovers, missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs twice. Nevada’s loss 2 weeks ago @ Kansas State was a bit deceiving as well. The yardage was near even in the game and KSU scored 2 TD’s in the final 6 minutes of the game. This Nevada team did win @ Cal this season as an underdog. They are +95 YPG on the season and +1.4 YPP and that’s vs a schedule that has included 2 Power 5 teams already. The Wolfpack have one of the top QB’s in the nation, Carson Strong, who has completed 68% of his passes for nearly 1,000 yards in 3 games. He’s thrown for over 6,000 yards and 45 TD’s in his career. The best QB Boise has played so far this season is UCF’s Gabriel and hit lit them up for 318 yards passing, 4 TD’s while leading his team to nearly 600 total yards. Strong will have a big day on Saturday. Nevada has covered 7 straight games as an underdog and we feel the better team is getting points in the much better situation. Take Nevada.

#170 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kent -16 over Bowling Green, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Despite facing some quality defenses (Iowa, Texas A&M and Maryland) the Kent State offense has some solid overall numbers, ranking 41st in total yards per game gained (439YPG) and 14th in rushing yards per game (237RYPG). The three defenses of Iowa, A&M and Maryland all rank 25th or better in total defense and now the Golden Flashes face a Bowling Green defense that is 99th in stopping the run. The Falcons allow an average of 207RYPG at a 4.3 per rush clip. Bowling Green on the other hand has played the 83rd overall easiest schedule yet rank 130th in rushing yards per game and 124th in total offense. Last season when these MAC foes met it was in Bowling Green and Kent State was favored by 14-points, won 62-24 and outgained the Falcons by over +300 total yards. Bowling Green is coming off a huge underdog win last week in Minnesota as a +30-point underdog while Kent State returns home off a loss at Maryland. This conference opener for both teams is going to be all chalk and a big win for the Golden Flashes. The favorite is 4-1 the last five meetings.

#106 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa -4.5 over Houston, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason the team that sits with a 1-3 record is favored over the team that has a 3-1 record. Tulsa is at home for this one and they’ve played a very tough schedule to date including games @ Ohio State and @ Oklahoma State. In their 28-23 loss @ Oklahoma State they outgained the Cowboys in that game plus held their own in the trenches limiting them to just 3.3 YPC on the ground. OSU had a 99 yard kickoff return for TD in that game which was the difference. When the Golden Hurricanes traveled to Ohio State they more than held their own vs the Buckeyes rolling up 501 total yards to 508 for the Bucks. That game was tight throughout despite the final margin. Tulsa trailed by just a TD @ Ohio State with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. Last Saturday Tulsa was back at home and topped Arkansas State 41-34. It could have been much worse as they held a 17 point lead in the 3rd quarter but ASU scored 13 of the games final 16 points including a 98 yard kickoff return. The stats in the game were extremely lopsided with Tulsa gaining 663 yards to 359 for Arkansas State. Houston steps in with a 3-1 record but they’ve played an easy schedule compared to Tulsa. The Cougs have faced Grambling, Rice, Navy, and Texas Tech thus far. Take out the Grambling game and the 2 wins for Houston vs Rice & Navy were not all that impressive. Those 2 teams are 0-6 SU combined vs FBS teams this season and 5 of those losses were blowouts. The only one that was close was Houston’s 28-20 win over Navy last week. The one decent team the Cougars played, Texas Tech, rolled them by 17 points outgaining Houston by 125 yards. Despite the big difference in opposition this season, Tulsa has gained an average of 6.9 YPP and allowed 5.6 YPP for a differential of +1.3 YPP. Houston’s YPP differential is +0.6 YPP despite their easy slate thus far. These 2 most recently met here in 2019 and Houston topped Tulsa as a 7-point dog despite getting outgained by 150 yards. Some revenge is in order on Friday night. We like this Tulsa team and feel they are undervalued right now. Lay the points here.

#965 ASA PLAY ON 8* Boston Red Sox -1.5 -155 on Run Line over Baltimore Orioles, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Orioles got the upset win yesterday but are just 13-39 last 52 games! Baltimore is 0-6 last 6 times they were off a win. The Red Sox had won 6 of 7 games at Baltimore before yesterday's loss. Boston will respond here. They will take advantage of facing Zac Lowther. The Orioles lefty is 0-2 against the Red Sox this season and has allowed 10 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings in those two starts. Boston starts Nathan Eovaldi here. The Red Sox righty has a 2.20 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Orioles. Eovaldi is off a bad start versus the Yankees but this followed a solid stretch of 8 starts in which he compiled a 2.27 ERA. The Red Sox had a recent 7-game winning streak before hitting a rough patch against the Yankees and all 7 of those victories were wins by a multiple-run margin! Note that Boston's 88 wins this season have included 62 by more than a 1-run margin. The Orioles 106 losses have included 82 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Red Sox are 42-21 in games against teams with a losing record this season. The Orioles are 29-74 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a road blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -250 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a more reasonable -155 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the run line.

#494 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +2 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is an absolute must win for Minnesota. They have played better than their 0-2 record as they really could easily be 2-0. They lost in OT @ Cincinnati when they fumbled getting into FG range for the winning points. Last week they played @ Arizona and missed what would have been the game winning FG as time expired. Now they get their home opener where they are an impressive 16-4 (80%) their last 20 as a home dog dating back to 2012. The Vikings got their rushing attack rolling last week with 177 yards on 6.6 YPC and they are facing a Seattle team that has allowed 162 YPG this year on the ground (31st). Minny RB Cook was banged up last week but all indications are he will play on Sunday. Seattle has a great home field advantage but laying points on the road had not been a money maker for this team. They are 1-0 this year in that role but just 5-14-2 ATS laying point on the road from 2016 – 2020. Seattle blew a lead at home vs Tennessee at home last week and lost in OT. The were outgained by 135 yards in that game. They’ve been outgained by 90 yards on the season thus far. Last year Minnesota was +6.5 @ Seattle and lost a tight game 27-26 but outgained the Hawks 449 to 314. We love this spot for the Vikings and expect them to win this game outright. We’ll take the points here.

#484 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland -7 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Bears won 20-17 on Sunday vs Cincinnati but the offense continues to look pedestrian at best. They only scored 1 offensive TD which was the same number of TD’s their defense scored in the game. Chicago barely had 200 yards of total offense on just 3.4 YPP – they were outgained by more than 1.0 per play in the win. The Chicago fanbase has been clamoring for rookie QB Fields to replace Andy Dalton and they got their wish when Dalton went down with a knee injury late in the 2nd quarter. Fields led the Chicago offense for 7 possessions where the totaled just 75 yards on 38 snaps (2 YPP). He also threw a key interception. He’s getting his first start of his career in a tough spot behind a shaky offensive line. Chicago is already getting outgained by more than 2.0 yards per play after just 2 weeks and if they can’t run here (Cleveland allowing just 77 YPG rushing) they are in big trouble. Too much pressure on Fields to play great to have a chance in this game. Cleveland should be 2-0 after leading KC on the road for most of the game but losing a tight game late. They had a bit of a letdown last week at home vs Houston but still won by 10 and they are outgained their opponents by 1.7 YPP after 2 games. The Browns offense is one of the best in the NFL and they are averaging 30 PPG already this season. Chicago has scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s in their 2 games. When the Chicago defense faced a good offense in week 1 (Rams) they gave up 34 points and couldn’t keep up on offense. Same story here. Cleveland wins by double digits.

#399 ASA PLAY ON 8* Nebraska +5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Prior to the season the Huskers would have been a slight favorite in this game and now just a few weeks later we’re getting nearly a TD with Nebraska. We love the value here. On top of that, Nebraska is playing really well right now. Let’s throw out their season opening loss @ Illinois (we were on the Illini) and since they are 2-1 with their only loss coming by 7-points last week @ #3 ranked Oklahoma. The Huskers actually outgained the Sooners on a YPP basis (6.0 to 5.9) and only punted twice the entire game. They were every bit the equal of Oklahoma last week and could have easily won that game. The previous week Nebraska rolled over a solid Buffalo program 28-3 and had a over 500 yards of total offense. That win looks much better now after Buffalo took #16 Coastal Carolina to the wire last week losing by a FG. The defense has looked light years better than last year allowing just 4 TD’s in their last 3 games. QB Martinez looked shaky in the season opening loss @ Illinois but has since played the best football of his career completing 49 of his 67 pass attempts (73%) with only one turnover in the last 3 games and that was a highlight reel interception by OU last week. He’s also run for 179 yards in those 3 games. MSU is improved no doubt but we have to ask how impressive are their wins? They beat NW to open the season and the Cats are flat out bad this year (lost @ Duke last week). MSU then beat Youngstown State. Throw that out. Last week they led Miami 17-14 in the 4th quarter before scoring a few late TD’s to win 38-17. The game wasn’t that lopsided as the yardage was about even but the Canes had 4 turnovers (0 for MSU) and 2 of those giveaways led to a 13 yard TD drive and a 23 yard TD drive for Sparty. Miami FL could easily be 0-3 on the season as their lone win was vs App State by 2 points in a game they could have lost. Michigan State has historically been a terrible home favorite with just a 1-12 ATS record their last 13 in that spot. The Spartans were just 3-point dogs a few weeks ago vs Northwestern and now they are laying 5 points vs a much better Nebraska team? We like the Huskers to have a great shot at pulling the upset here.

#369 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State +6 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We’ve been thoroughly impressed with KSU this season. We love their head coach Chris Klieman who is now in his 3rd year here after leading FCS power North Dakota State to a 69-6 record in his 5 years as head man at that program. This team is flying under the radar despite big wins over two very good teams Stanford and Nevada. Those wins came by margins of 17 points and 21 points respectively. Stanford has since beaten USC handily and Nevada has a road win @ California this season. Starting QB Thompson went down for KSU a few weeks ago but his replacement Will Howard has lots of experience and has played very well including in last week’s win vs Nevada where he completed 70% of his passes and had 56 yards rushing. We like KSU in the trenches here as they rank 19th nationally in rushing (226 YPG) and 5th nationally in stopping the run (55 YPG). OSU is off a big road win at Boise 21-20 blocking a Bronco FG attempt with just 2:00 minutes to go. The Cowboys haven’t been dominating by any stretch despite their 3-0 record. All of their games have been decided by a TD or less including wins vs Missouri State & Tulsa. They are really banged up at WR with 4 potentially out which has made it tough on their passing attack (just 190 YPG). KSU is 19-6 ATS in this series and a perfect 7-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points. This is a big revenger for Kansas State as well after losing 20-18 at home to OSU last season. We expect another tight game and taking nearly a TD with KSU is the way to go here.

#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET – The Phillies have won 6 straight games against right-handed starters. Philadelphia has also won 3 straight games when facing the Pirates and the combined score of those games is 35-16. Look for another dominating win here as Ranger Suarez gives the Phillies a big edge over Pittsburgh and starter William Crowe. Even though Crowe had success against the Phillies earlier this season that start was at home and he is now on the road for this one Crowe has a 6.44 ERA on the road this season and has an 8.25 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Suarez has been fantastic for the Phillies this season including a 1.92 ERA in his 10 starts! The Pirates are 14-32 against southpaw starters this season and 18-42 in day games this season! Philadelphia is 33-18 in day games this season. The Phillies won by a multiple-run margin yesterday and note that Philadelphia's 80 wins this season have included 50 by more than a 1-run margin. The Pirates 96 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Phillies are 13 games over .500 in home games this season and Pittsburgh is 23-55 in road games this season and 29-60 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -260 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -130 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line.

#387 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for the Tigers. They are coming off a HUGE home win over SEC Mississippi State and the week prior to that they beat rival Arkansas State 55-50. Last week’s 31-29 win over MSU was very deceiving. We were on Memphis so we picked up a win but if you would have shown us the final stats before the game was played, we would not have been on the Tigers. Memphis was -14 first downs and -222 yards in that win over Mississippi State. They had a 94-yard punt return and 49-yard fumble return both for TD’s. If they take UTSA lightly after last week’s big win, they will lose here. They may lose even if they play well. UTSA is a very solid, veteran team. They come into this game with a 3-0 record including a win @ Illinois in their other road game this season. Say what you will about the Illini, but in their other 2 home games they beat Nebraska and nearly beat Maryland so that was a very good road win for UTSA who had 497 total yards of offense in that game. Last week they Road Runners topped Middle Tennessee State by 14 points but it should have been much worse as they won the yardage battle by +253. Their senior QB Harris is one of the better “unknown” signal callers in the country, just ask Illinois. We have an edge at that position as the Memphis QB is a freshman that’s played in 3 games in his career. Dating back to last season UTSA has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming in their bowl game 31-24 vs a very good Louisiana team that finished last year 10-1. We’re getting the better team, getting points, in a better situation. Take Texas San Antonio.

#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia -4 over Wake Forest, Friday at 7 PM ET - We love this spot at home for UVA. They are off an embarrassing 59-39 loss @ North Carolina last Saturday. It was the Cavs first loss of the year. They are taking on a Wake team that is 3-0 but they’ve played all home games and faced a very easy schedule thus far. The Deacs topped an FCS team and a bad FBS team (Old Dominion) to start the season and then thumped a reeling Florida State team last week. While FSU isn’t very good – they lost at home the previous week to Jacksonville State – it was still a big win for WF vs a name program. The Wake defense has put up great numbers this year holding their 3 opponents to a combined 40 points but the offenses they’ve faced have been nothing close to what they’ll see on Saturday. Minus their FCS opponent, they have faced Old Dominion (122nd in total offense) and FSU (68th in total offense). Worse yet, those 2 teams aren’t adept at moving the ball through the air (ODU 118th in passing offense / FSU 84th in passing offense) and now they face a UVA team that leads the nation averaging 488 YPG through the air. The Cavs also rank 3rd in total offense and 11th in YPP offense. Wake’s defense takes a huge step up in competition on Saturday. UVA just saw one of the top offenses in the nation (UNC) last week and didn’t fare well but you can bet they’ll make adjustments this week and this will be a step down in competition for the Cavaliers. This is a game Virginia has been waiting for after losing 40-23 at Wake last year (Wake as a 2-point favorite). The yardage in the game was very close but the Cavs had 3 turnovers (0 for Wake), missed a FG, and were shut out on downs inside the WF 10-yard line. They had their chances to say the least. They haven’t been able to host WF since 2012 so it’s been almost a decade since they’ve had a shot at the Deacs here at home. Virginia has won 18 of their last 20 home games and only 3 of those 18 wins have come by less than a TD. Lay it.

#926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -140 on Run Line over New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Phillies have won 5 straight games against right-handed starters but Keegan Akin is a lefty so why would that matter? Here is the key point we are making: the last two lefties the Phillies faced were the crafty veteran Rich Hill and the very talented John Means of the Orioles. Keegan Akin does not fall into either of those two categories of southpaws! He is in his 2nd MLB season and has gone 2-10 with a 6.93 ERA in 23 games (16 starts).. In his 10 road starts this season Akin is 1-6 with an 8.64 ERA! The Orioles lefty is highly likely to struggle here and that means this game should be a blowout because the Baltimore bullpen is also one of the absolute worst in the majors this season. To stay in this game the Orioles would have to score plenty and, honestly, they will be lucky to score even a few in this one! Baltimore is up against a surging Zack Wheeler. The Phillies right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.02 ERA this month and has registered 23 strikeouts in 17 and 2 / 3 innings during this stretch. Wheeler has a 2.04 ERA in his 3 career starts versus the Orioles. More dominance expected here and he should get plenty of run support as Akin gets rocked again in this one. The Phillies won by just 1 run yesterday but note that Philadelphia's 77 wins this season have included 48 by more than a 1-run margin. The Orioles 103 losses have included 83 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Phillies are 10 games over .500 in home games this season and Baltimore is 28-73 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -300 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -140 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line.

#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – We fell just short with this play Monday but coming right back with it here. Yesterday the Yankees jumped out to a 4-0 lead and held Texas scoreless in 8 of the 9 innings but one 3-run inning was the difference. The Yankees won 4-3 but failed to cover the run line. As we mentioned here yesterday about this series, the good news for Yankees fans is they are welcoming the road-adverse Rangers to the Bronx. We look for New York to respond with not only wins but some big-margin victories in this series. Texas has lost 5 of 6 and the Rangers have been held to 3 or less runs in all 6 of those games! The Yankees got drilled Sunday by an 11-1 final but had scored an average of 5.5 runs per game over the 8-game stretch preceding that. Dane Dunning starts for Rangers here and he has struggled badly on the road this season and now makes his first ever start in the Bronx which is generally not an easy place to pitch for young starters! Dunning has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season and Texas is 1-9 in those 10 starts! Yankees start Jordan Montgomery and the lefty has a 3.25 ERA in his 11 home starts this season and New York has won all but 4 of those starts. The Yankees are 7-4 in his home starts this season. The Yankees won by just 1 run yesterday but note that New York's 84 wins this season have included 57 by more than a 1-run margin. The Rangers 95 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Yankees are 54-30 in non-divisional games and Texas is 22-53 in road games this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -240 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -125 price range by utilizing the run line. Take New York Yankees -1.5 on the run line

#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 -135 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Monday at 7:05 PM ET – After some struggles, the Yankees seemed to turn the corner with a 5-2 stretch over 7 games.  That was before back to back losses to wrap up their series with Cleveland.  The good news for the Yankees is they now welcome the road-adverse Rangers to the Bronx and we look for New York to respond after the back to back losses.  Texas has lost 4 of 5 and the Rangers have been held to 2 or less runs in all 5 of those games!  The Yankees got drilled yesterday by an 11-1 final but had scored an average of 5.5 runs per game over the 8-game stretch preceding this.  Rookie AJ Alexy starts for Rangers here and he just got used in a long relief role and got crushed so this takes the luster off his first two starts being successful.  Look for a carry-over from the rough relief outing right into a tough outing in the Bronx which is generally not an easy place to pitch for rookie starters!  Yankees start Nestor Cortes and the lefty has a 2.70 ERA in his 11 starts this season and New York has won all but 3 of those starts!  The Yankees are 4-1 in his home starts this season.  The Yankees get back on track here and note that New York's 83 wins have included 57 by more than a 1-run margin.  The Rangers 94 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin!  Also, the Yankees are 53-30 in non-divisional games and Texas is 22-52 in road games this season.  Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here.  Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -260 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -140 price range by utilizing the run line. Take New York Yankees -1.5 on the run line.

#287 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +3.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We have some serious week 1 overreaction taking place here. Prior to last week Arizona was favored by -1.5 in this game and now that they destroyed Tennessee last week and Minnesota lost in OT @ Cincinnati, this line has crossed the key number of 3 and we’re getting the Vikings at +3.5. We’ll take it. Minnesota will bring their “A” game here after losing a tough one last week in OT. The Vikes outgained Cincy in the game and had the ball moving into FG territory in OT when RB Cook fumbled. Cincy then kicked the game winning FG 2 minutes later as time expired. Minny HC Zimmer has been fabulous as an underdog off a SU loss going 21-6-1 ATS their last 28 in that role. Arizona looked great last week vs a Tennessee team we had projected to regress big time this year. The Titans despite finishing with 11 wins in the regular season, had a point differential of just +52 which ranked them 7th in the AFC and 12th in the NFL. Over half of their wins last year (6) were by 3 points or less or in overtime. Tennessee was -13 YPG last season and right around dead even in their yards per play differential (+0.1 YPP differential). They weren’t nearly as good as their record last year and last week they showed that. 3 turnovers by Tennessee led directly to 14 points for Arizona including a 1-yard TD drive by the Cards after a Titan fumble. Arizona QB Murray played the game of his life vs a poor Tennessee defense that finished last year ranked 29th in total defense and 24th in scoring defense. We expect Murray to come back to earth this week vs what we project to be a very solid Minnesota defense. Look for the Vikings to get the running game rolling this week behind Dalvin Cook. Arizona’s rush defense was near the bottom of the NFL last year but Tennessee had to abandoned their running game pretty quickly last week after getting down big early. We like the coaching edge with Zimmer as well in this game as Arizona coach Kingsbury is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite since taking over in Arizona. Take the points.

#276 ASA NFL PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh -6 over Las Vegas, Sunday at 1 PM ET - As far as situations go, the Raiders are probably in the worst spot in the NFL this week. They played a highly emotional game on Monday night in their season opener vs the Ravens. The new Allegiant Stadium in Vegas had fans for the first time ever in a regular season game and the Raiders pulled out a come from behind win in OT. It was an exhausting game to watch and we can’t imagine how Vegas can be at the top of their game here, on a short week, in an early game on the east coast. Not much was said about Pittsburgh entering the season as the Ravens & Browns were all the AFC North talk. Let’s not forget Pittsburgh was 12-4 and won the division last year with one of the best defenses in the NFL. That defense held a potent Buffalo offense to just 16 points in a road win last week. We expect the Pitt offense to perform well early in the season with QB Roethlisberger is healthy and rested. As the season wears on that may not be the case but for now, with the addition of 1st round RB Harris from Alabama, the offense should be fine. That’s all they’ll need with the dominant defense they have in the Steel City. Las Vegas, on the other hand, has a terrible defense. Last year they finished 30th in scoring defense allowing 30 PPG and 26th in defensive efficiency giving up 6 YPP. Well they didn’t look any better on Monday night with Baltimore scoring 27 points on 6.1 YPP. Two Lamar Jackson fumbles led directly to 14 points for the Raiders. We expect Pittsburgh to put plenty of points on the board here vs a bad Vegas defense while the Raiders will struggle on offense. LV HC Gruden is just 15-25 ATS the week after an outright underdog win and the Raiders are 1-7 ATS their last 8 after a Monday night game. Steelers roll.

#277 ASA NFL PLAY ON 8* Buffalo -3 over Miami, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We really like this spot for the Bills.  They are already 0-1 after losing at home to the Steelers last week and really can’t afford to drop to 0-2.  We were on Pittsburgh last week but Buffalo did outgain them by over 100 yards and didn’t trail until the 4th quarter.  The Steelers had a blocked punt for a TD in the final quarter which completely turned the game around.  Buffalo was able to run the ball effectively (4.7 YPC) vs a top notch Pittsburgh defense AND without their top RB Moss.  He is back this week and we look for a balanced offense to give the Fins big problems.  Miami picked up a 17-16 win @ New England but the fact is they were thoroughly outplayed in that game.  The Pats outgained the Fins by 130 yards, had 8 more FD’s and a 13 minute time of possession edge.  The Dolphins defense allowed almost 400 yards to a New England team starting a rookie QB.  Fumbles killed New England last week including one on the Miami 11-yard line late in the game as the Patriots were moving in for the go ahead score.  Buffalo has owned Miami winning 4 straight by an average score of 38-23 with the Bills scoring at least 30 points in all 4 games.  We have a big edge at QB with Josh Allen over Tua in this game.  In Allen’s 6-stars vs Miami he is 5-1 with almost 1,600 yards passing and 17 TD’s.  We had Miami as a team that would regress in 2021 after they made the playoffs last year despite getting outgained by more than a half yard per play (-0.6 YPP differential).  We hate to use the word must win this early in the season but Buffalo is approaching the game in that way.  The better team backed into a corner here laying only a FG is definitely worth a play.

#280 ASA NFL PLAY ON 8* Indianapolis +3.5 over LA Rams, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Love this spot for the Colts off a home loss, back at home vs a Rams team that destroyed a bad Chicago team on Sunday night. Another over reaction value play here. The Colts were actually favored by a point at a few spots not long ago in this one. Now they are getting more than a FG at home. Last year they weren’t tabbed a home dog at all including games vs Baltimore & Green Bay where they were favored. Let’s not forget this Indy team was 11-5 last year and made the playoffs. They added QB Wentz who actually played pretty well last week with 250 yards and 2 TD’s (no picks). The Rams looked great vs the hapless Bears on Sunday night. Their defense looked a bit vulnerable vs the run with Chicago racking up 134 yards on the ground (74 for the Rams). Indy had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and if they can get their rushing game going with Jonathan Taylor, we look for a big day from Wentz and the rest of the offense. Dogs are barking early in the NFL season with a 13-4 ATS record including 9 outright winners. This is a bad spot for the Rams and the Colts have a solid shot at the SU win so we’ll take the points.

ASA play 8* on: #162 Memphis +3.5 over Mississippi State, 4PM ET - The play here is on the home team Tigers in what we expect to be a mild upset and outright win for Memphis. We’ll gladly grab the points! Memphis has one of the best offenses in college football averaging 680 yards per game which ranks them 2nd in the nation. That is obviously not a fluke either as they averaged over 400YPG a season ago which was 28th best. The Tigers high scoring offense is averaging 55PPG this season and has averaged over 36PPG going back three full seasons. Last week the Tigers jumped out to a big lead against Arkansas State before the Red Wolves scored three Touchdowns in the 4th quarter to make it respectable. In other words, we don’t feel the Tigers defense is as bad as the 50-points they allowed last week to Arkansas State. The Wolves offense averaged over 31PPG a year ago and were 14th in total yards per game. Mississippi State is coming off a big win over NC State and have a huge game looming on deck versus LSU. While the Bulldogs are looking ahead to that game, the Tigers are focused on a huge home game versus an SEC opponent. Last week the Bulldogs returned the opening kick for a TD but were unimpressive after that, getting outgained by NC State but still winning. Since 2018 Memphis is 20-1 SU at home with an average margin of victory of 18.5PPG. They’ve also been a home dog just three times in that span and are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS in those games. Mississippi State finds themselves in unfamiliar territory here as a road favorite with this being the 6th time since 2018 in that role. Miss State is just 1-7 ATS their last 8 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Grab the points with Memphis here.

ASA play 8* on: #145 Florida State +5 over Wake Forest, 3:30PM ET - Florida State came into the season with high hopes, but an 0-2 SU start has dampened the Seminoles spirits. They are facing a “must win” situation here if they want to salvage any semblance of a successful season. The Noles played a top ten team in Notre Dame to the wire in the opener but came up short. Then last week they suffered a big upset loss (favored by 28) to Neon Deon Sanders and Jacksonville State. FSU lost that game on a 59-yard Hail Mary pass to end the game. Now the Noles must get back up to face an ACC foe in Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are off to a 2-0 start, but they’ve faced Norfolk State and Old Dominion. Old Dominion didn’t play last season and was 1-11 SU the year before. Despite playing two bad programs the Deacons rank 75th in total yards per game, 74th in passing and 70th in rushing offensively. Wake Forest has decent defensive numbers, but they are not what they should be considering the competition they’ve faced. FSU has a decisive rushing advantage here and can win this game in the trenches. Had this game been played the first week of the season the Noles may have been favored in this game and now they are catching over a field goal. In fact, going back to 2010 the Deacons have never been favored in this series. Going back to 2018 Florida State is 11-8 SU when coming off a loss and we like them here plus the points.

#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - After finishing with a solid 6-2 record but we felt they were due for a regression this year. The benefitted from a +8 turnover margin last year, they were outgained on the year despite their winning record, beat only 1 team that ended last year with a winning record, and their QB isn’t anywhere near 100%. Michael Penix is just 8 months removed from a 2nd ACL tear on the same knee. Our word from IU is that he is probably only 80% at best. You can see it in his play. His legs were a big part of his success at QB and he isn’t comfortable running yet this season. He’s very uncomfortable in the pocket with pressure, which is understandable, but that does not lead to success throwing the ball. He’s barely averaging 4.0 yards per pass attempt which means IU has become a dink and dunk offense. Their running game has been poor averaging 2.5 YPC vs Iowa and 3.6 YPC vs a bad Idaho team. That means in order to beat Cincy, most likely Penix will need a huge game and we just don’t see it. The Bearcats defensive front is every bit as good as Iowa’s who put constant pressure on Penix and held the Hoosiers to just 6 points. They bounced back after that loss and beat Idaho but not nearly as impressive as the score indicated. IU averaged just 4.8 YPP vs the Vandals and had 2 special teams TD’s in the game. Cincy was one of the best teams in the nation last year going 9-1 with their only loss coming by 3-points vs Georgia in the Peach Bowl. They return many key players from a great defense that allowed 16 PPG and just 4.6 YPP. They also bring back one of the better QB’s in the country as Desmond Ridder threw for 2,300 yards, 19 TD’s and rushed for almost 800 more. The Bearcats have won their first two games by a combined score of 91-21. That includes a 49-14 win over Miami Oh in week one and the Redhawks turned around and nearly won at Minnesota the following week showing how impressive that Cincinnati win was. We’re laying points on the road here but Cincinnati is the much better overall team at this time. Once Penix gets back to 100%, the Hoosiers will be much better but he’s nowhere near that right now. Lay it.

#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Minnesota Twins, Friday at 7:07 PM ET – Hyun-Jin Ryu is off a poor start for the Blue Jays but he had been pitching very well.  Ryu had a bad start at Baltimore but before that he had only one truly rough outing the last 5.  In the other 4 of the 5 outings, Ryu allowed just 14 hits in 25 innings.  Look for him to prove to be tough on a Twins team that has lost 6 of 8 games and have scored an average of only 3.8 runs in last 10 games.  In fact, removing two high-scoring wins from the equation, Minnesota averaged just 2.9 runs in the other 8 games.  Look for the red hot Blue Jays to roll in this game.  Toronto is on a 13-2 run and has scored an average of 8 runs per game during this stretch.  The Jays face Twins starter Michael Pineda in this one.  The right-hander has a 12.34 ERA in last 3 starts against Toronto and allowed 7 homers in those 3 outings.  Pineda enters this start off a good outing versus the Royals but had a 5.80 ERA in his 9 prior starts.  The Blue Jays stay hot here and note that Toronto's 82 wins have included 68 by more than a 1-run margin!  The Twins 83 losses have included 64 by more than a 1-run margin.  Also, the Blue Jays are 61-44 versus right-handers and Minnesota is 16-33 versus southpaws this season.  Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here.  Hotter batters and a huge pitching edge and you can see why the big Blue Jays hot streak is likely to continue this evening.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play-on team is available in a "pick" money (-110) price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line.

#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +110 on Run Line over Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 3:07 PM ET – Tampa Bay got the win yesterday but this followed losses in 7 of 12 games overall and 4 of 5 road games.  Toronto had been red hot before yesterday's loss.  The Blue Jays had won 15 of 17 games before the loss yesterday.  67 of Toronto's 81 wins this season have been by 2+ runs.  With the pitching edge here, look for another blowout win for Toronto as they bounce back from yesterday's defeat.  Robbie Ray gets the call for the Jays.  He has held the Rays to a total of just 3 earned runs on 11 hits while striking out 24 over 21 innings in his last 3 starts against them.  All of those were within the past 4 months by the way.  The point is that Robbie Ray has fared well in the current season versus the Rays.  The Tampa Bay starter in this one is Michael Wacha and he has pitched a little better of late but he did not face a team that is hot-hitting right now like the Blue Jays are.  Toronto has averaged 8 runs a game in the 15 victories during their 15-3 run.  Wacha has a 5.77 ERA on the road this season as a starter with a 1-3 record away from home.  Toronto is 6-1 last 7 times when off a loss.  Tampa Bay scoring an average of 3.7 runs last 6 games. Toronto scored 5 or more runs in 12 of last 14 games.  Hotter batters and a huge pitching edge and you can see why the big Blue Jays bounce back is likely this afternoon.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play-on team is available in a plus money (+110) price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Las Vegas +4 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday 8:20PM ET - Yes, we know about the Ravens 5-0 SU their last five season openers and they’ve won those games by an average of 30PPG but the value in this game clearly lies with Las Vegas. This is the first true home game at Allegiant Stadium in front of a sellout 65,000 fans for the Raiders and we expect that energy to carry them through this game. The Ravens have suffered several key injuries recently and are down to their 4th running back and just lost corner Marcus Peters. The Raiders weren’t not good defensively last year so they signed several players on that side of the football in the offseason and brought in a new D-coordinator so expect a drastic improvement on that side of the football. Las Vegas has weapons on offense with QB Derek Carr (4100 yards 27 TDs to 9 INTs) TE Waller (1200 rec yards 9TDs) and running back Josh Jacobs (1065 rushing yards 12 TD). We feel the Ravens impressive 3-0 preseason has influenced this line which is too high in our opinion. Baltimore was 19th in total yards a year ago, 1st in rushing, last in passing. The defense was top 10 in nearly every key category. The Raiders can trade points with the Ravens with an offense that was 8th in total yards, 7th in passing, 14th in rushing and 10th in scoring. Public perception has forced the oddsmakers to set an inflated number here. Bet the Raiders.

#474 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Patriots will be one of the most improved teams in the NFL.  It’s actually somewhat amazing they finished with a respectable 7-9 record as we’d argue the Covid situation affected this team more than any other.  They had more opt outs on the season than every other team and a number of players that remained were hit hard including QB Newton who was never the same after contracted Covid.  Newton is now gone and Belichick is going with rookie QB Jones from Alabama as the starter.  It he simply manages the game and doesn’t make mistakes this team will be very solid.  They spent more in free agency in the off season than any other team and they did so on very solid players as they always do.  The New England defense will be one of the best in the NFL and facing a banged up Miami OLine.  Fins starting LT Jackson is on the Covid list and may not play leaving a rookie or a lineman they signed 2 weeks ago as the starter.  Pats are 8-1 ATS their last 9 at home vs Miami including 21-11 win here last year and outgained the Dolphins by 1.1 YPP in that game.  New England was a 6.5 point favorite in that game and now they are laying 3 despite being vastly improved from a year ago.  Miami, because they made the playoffs, we feel is a bit overvalued as they were outgained by 0.6 YPP by their opponents.  Tua was a disaster last year (44.8 QBR – 26th in the NFL) and in his lone start vs Belichick’s depleted defense he threw for just 145 yards with 0 TD’s and 1 pick.  We look for him to struggle again on Sunday.  The host has covered 16 of the last 21 in this AFC East rivalry and we have the Patriots winning by more than a FG here.

#453 ASA NFL PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh +6.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Too many points here.  These 2 met last year and Buffalo was favored by just 2 points and picked up a 26-15 win helped by a 51-yards interception return for a TD.  Now a year later we’re getting almost a full TD with a Pittsburgh team we expect to be better than last season.  The Steelers began the last season 11-0 before faltering down the stretch and then losing in the wild card round of the playoffs.  An aging Ben Roethlisberger played fairly well early in the year but struggled down the stretch throwing 10 of his 14 interceptions in the final 7 games (including playoff game).  He should be rested, healthy and refreshed early in the season so we expect him to play well.  He has 3 very good WR’s to throw to as well.  Part of the Steelers offensive struggles last year was due to their terrible running game (last in the NFL).  That all changes this year with first round pick RB Harris from Alabama stepping into the starters role.  Defensively this team will be at the top of the league again this year.  They are the best pass rushing team in the NFL and TJ Watt is now back in the line up.  Buffalo is very good but possibly a bit overrated entering the season after last year’s successful run.  They are favored by -6.5 in this game vs a playoff team from last season and last year they were favored by -6.5 or more just THREE times the entire regular season.  Two times vs the Jets and once vs the Patriots.  Pittsburgh has the BEST road underdog record over the last 6 seasons covering 15 of their 21 games in that situation.  This one stays close and we’ll take the points.

#377 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +7 over Michigan, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a pure value play on Washington. This line prior to last week’s games was Michigan -1 or -1.5. Now because Michigan beat Western Michigan handily and Washington was upset by an FCS team, this number moved through -3, -4, and -6 (three key numbers) and onto another key number -7. That’s simply too much of an overreaction after one week. Washington look poor last week no way around that. They turned the ball over 3 times and didn’t create a single turnover. The Huskies tallied just 291 total yards in their 13-7 loss vs Montana. UW had 11 more first downs, won the overall yardage & time of possession battle and the defense held the Grizzlies to 3.4 yards per play. They were flat and turnovers (-3) decided the game. We expect Washington to rally big time this week as they are now backed into a corner so to speak off that loss. The defense has a chance to be elite. Michigan ran the ball at will last week vs a small MAC defensive front but that won’t happen this week. Wolverine starting QB McNamara only completed 9 passes and didn’t have to do much to get this win. He’s still fairly inexperienced and will have to do much more here to get this win vs a big step up in competition. That was made much more difficult with Michigan WR Bell (top offensive player on the team) was injured last week and is now out for the season. The Wolverine defense was OK last week but WMU did get into Michigan territory 6 times and came away with only 14 points. Washington has not been an underdog of 7 or more points since 2016. This team had an energetic week of practice after their upset loss and they will be ready here. This one will be close. Take the points.

#350 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iowa State -4 over Iowa, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Iowa is coming off what looks like a dominating performance in their 34-6 win over Indiana last Saturday. Not so fast on that assumption. The Hawkeye offense scored only 2 TD’s while the defense had two pick 6’s accounting for 14 of the 34 points. Iowa barely totaled 300 yards and were held to just 4.7 YPP. Defensively Iowa looked great but remember they were facing an Indiana QB Penix who is not even close to 100% coming off ACL surgery for the 2nd time on the same knee. He couldn’t even plant to throw and it showed with 3 interceptions and just 156 yards passing on 31 attempts (a measly 5.0 yards per attempt). ISU got a scare last week at home as they struggled to top Northern Iowa 16-10. They played a similar game out of the gate last year and lost at home to Louisiana and then turned around and beat TCU and Oklahoma the next 2 weeks. The Cyclones were obviously looking ahead to this one last week and when facing one of the very best programs in FCS (Northern Iowa) was able to keep it close in a game that was their “super bowl” so to speak against a big boy in the state. ISU is simply better at nearly every unit in this game. They have the better QB (Purdy), one of the top RB’s in the country (Hall), 5-starters back on the offensive line, and defensively they return their 20 top tacklers from last year’s 9-3 team that beat Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. Iowa has one of the more inexperienced offensive lines in the nation (115th in starts returning), their QB Petras is inconsistent at best (under 50% completions last week for just 145 yards), he lost 2 of his top 3 WR’s, and the defense while still solid, lost almost their entire front 4. Iowa State is the much more complete team and they are at home. This is a HUGE game for the ISU program having lost 5 straight to their cross-state rivals. Iowa turned the ball over just ONCE in those 5 games combined (6 turnovers for ISU) and yet 2 of the last 3 meetings Iowa had to come from behind late in the 4th quarter to win by 1 point and by 3 points in OT. HC Matt Campbell is putting a big time emphasis on winning this game as to be expected. We like the Cyclones to win by at least a TD here.

#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 -130 on Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET – The Giants are rolling once again.  With yesterday's 6-1 win here over the Cubs, San Francisco has won 7 of last 8 games.  Also, all 5 wins in their current 5-game winning streak have come by at least a 2-run margin.  The Cubs start Zach Davies here.  The right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in last 2 home starts.  Davies is 6-10 on the season and has a 5.58 ERA in his home starts this year.  Kevin Gausman starts for the Giants and is a fantastic 13-5 on the season including 7-2 in road starts.  Gausman has a 1.95 ERA on the road this season!  Gausman allowed zero earned runs and struck out 10 in his lone start versus Chicago this season.  Davies got hit very hard and was unable to complete 5 innings in his lone start versus the Giants this season.  San Francisco is set up well for a big road blowout win here and Gausman should once again dominate.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in an reasonable money (-130) price range on the run line. Take San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the run line.