#361 ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia +3 over Baylor, Saturday at 12 PM ET - WVU is the better team here and we like them to win this game outright. The Mountaineers have played the much tougher schedule having already faces Oklahoma, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Texas Tech. Baylor played one of the easiest schedules through their first 3 games facing Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Since that they’ve faced Iowa State and Oklahoma State and Baylor has been dominated in the stat sheet in those 2 games getting outgained by over 300 yards. They were lucky to beat ISU by 2 points at home as they were outgained by almost 200 yards and benefited from a 98 yard kickoff return for TD. The Baylor offense caught ISU off guard in that game with some things they didn’t show in their first three games vs bad opponents. Once the Cyclones made their adjustments, Iowa State held the Bears to just 65 yards in the 2nd half. Thus in the last game and a half (since halftime of ISU game) the Baylor offense has generated just 345 total yards on 82 offensive plays (4.2 YPP). Now they face a WVU defense that is playing great allowing just 313 total yards and 346 total yards the last 2 games to potent offenses (Oklahoma & Texas Tech). Baylor will really struggle on offense in this game. The Baylor defense is in the same situation. Solid stats because of their weak schedule. However, in the last 2 games once they hit Big 12 play the Bears defense has allowed 440 YPG. WVU has covered the last 3 years in this series by a combined 51 points and we like them to win on Saturday. Take the points.

#307 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +29.5 over Cincinnati, Friday at 7 PM ET - This is a classic letdown spot for the Bearcats. They are coming off games vs Indiana & Notre Dame and they have UCF on deck. All off-season the talk was if this team can get by IU and the Irish they have a great shot at an undefeated season. Those 2 games were this teams “Super Bowls” so to speak and playing a home game as nearly a 30 point favorite after beating the Irish will be tough. The only other potential roadblock on their way to an undefeated season is probably UCF next week so focusing on Temple won’t be easy. The Owls are better than people might think. Their defense is very solid allowing just 313 YPG on 4.6 YPP. Last week they held a potent Memphis offense to just 5.8 YPP and the Tigers had just 385 total yards of offense entering their final offensive possession with 2:30 remaining in the game. Memphis scored with 30 seconds left to cut the Temple lead to 3 points but the Owls held on to win. The Temple offense struggled in mid September but much of that was because their starting QB Mathis (Georgia transfer) was out with an injury. He’s been back for their last 2 games and led the Owls to 72 points while passing for over 600 yards and 2 TD’s. Now we don’t expect him to put up those numbers vs Cincy but he’ll do enough to keep them within this huge number. This isn’t the same Temple team that was routed by Rutgers in the season opener. They are much better and that game was extremely misleading as well with the Owls turning the ball over 6 times in that game. Because of that, we are still getting line value with Temple who is now at full strength. These two AAC rivals last met in 2019 and Cincinnati was a 7.5 point home favorite and beat Temple 15-13. Now they are laying almost 30 points! Temple has covered 5 straight in this series and we think their defense is solid enough to not let the Bearcat offense go wild in this game. Their offense is also underrated and may not need to score many points to keep this within the number. Take the points with Temple.

#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -2 over Seattle, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Rams. They are the better team and coming off a loss last Sunday at home vs Arizona. It wasn’t overly surprising as, despite it being a division game, it was a big time letdown spot for the Rams after beating up on Tampa Bay a week earlier. Despite their 37-20 loss to the Cards, the yardage was about dead even (6.3 YPP to 6.2 YPP) but LA had 2 key turnovers that directly led to 14 points for Arizona. The Rams also missed a FG and were shut out on downs at the Arizona 1-yard line. Seattle is coming off a game they had to win @ San Francisco after losing back to back games vs the Titans & Vikings. Those 2 losses don’t look great for Seattle now as Tennessee just lost to the Jets and Minnesota was ousted at home by Cleveland. The Seahawks did what they needed to do last week picking up a 28-21 win vs the Niners. It wasn’t all that impressive however as they were outgained by a wide margin (6.3 YPP to 4.3 YPP) and SF starting QB Garoppolo didn’t play in the 2nd half due to an injured leg leaving it up to inexperienced rookie Trey Lance. With Lance running the show in the 2nd half the 49ers actually outgained Seattle 230 to 172 but a key fumble from the rookie led to a 14 yard TD drive for the Seahawks which turned out to be the difference in the game. Seattle is also pretty banged up right now with 3 starters on both offense and defense possibly out on Thursday including top WR Metcalfe who has a foot injury. These 2 met 3 times last year (playoffs included) and the Rams won 2 of the 3 games including a 30-20 win @ Seattle in the playoffs and they outgained the Hawks 1,056 to 903. And that was with Jared Goff at QB not Matthew Stafford who is a big upgrade. Seattle used to be a covering machine at home but that hasn’t been the case as of late. They are just 8-10 ATS their last 18 home tilts dating back to the 2018 season. We like the better team, with the better defense, off a loss here. Take the Rams.

#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a must win for Seattle who sits at 1-2 after blowing double digit leads in each of the last 2 weeks vs Tennessee & Minnesota. The Seattle offense has been rolling as they are averaging 7.4 YPP which is tops in the NFL this season. San Fran’s offense is heading in the opposite direction. After lighting up a bad Detroit defense for 8 YPP in their opener the Niners have averaged just 4.5 and 4.6 YPP their last 2 games vs Philly & Green Bay. The 49ers have been outgained by 1.5 YPP in each of their last 2 games and they were extremely lucky to win @ Philly and lucky to even have a chance vs Green Bay. The defense has been struggling as well allowing 6.0+ YPP in each of those games as well which isn’t ideal facing a red hot Seahawks offense. They are also really banged up in the defensive backfield as it looks like they will have only 4 healthy corners on the roster. One of those players is coming back from injury (Moseley) and two were not even on the active roster vs Green Bay. We expect Russell Wilson to have a huge day. Wilson has dominated San Francisco since taking over as Seattle’s starting QB in 2012. He is 15-4 SU vs the Niners in his career. The Hawks have also NEVER lost 3 games in a row since Wilson took over. They have lost 2 straight just 8 times in Wilson’s career and they are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS after those losses. The Niners, on the other hand, have been a terrible home favorite with an ATS record of just 5-20-1 ATS in that role since 2014. The better QB in a must win spot getting points is a nice situation. Seattle is the play.

#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 -115 on Run Line over San Diego Padres, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET – The Padres got the upset win in extra innings yesterday but are just 2-12 last 14 games!  San Diego is 3-9 last 12 times they were off a win.  The Giants had won 9 of 10 games before yesterday's loss.  San Francisco, with a chance to lock up the NL West Division on the final day of the season, will respond here.  They will take advantage of facing Reiss Knehr.  The Padres righty is winless in his 4 starts this season and has allowed 7 earned runs in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in his last 3 starts.  San Francisco starts Logan Webb here.  The Giants are 20-5 in his starts this season including 11-0 at home where the righty is 5-0 with a 1.65 ERA on the year!  The Giants had a 7-game winning streak before losing a tight game last night and 6 of their last 8 victories were wins by a multiple-run margin!  Note that San Francisco's 106 wins this season have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin.  The Padres 82 losses have included 56 by more than a 1-run margin!  Also, the Giants are 71-27 in games against teams with a losing record this season.  Plenty of reason to expect a road blowout here.  Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -220 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a more reasonable -115 price range by utilizing the run line. Take San Francisco Giants 1.5 on the run line.

#256 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Jets +6.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - No sane bettor will want any part of the Jets but we do. Going back to 2015, teams off a shutout loss are 21-6-3 ATS their next game. 10-1 ATS if their opponent is off back-2-back wins, which applies here. In fact, the Dolphins were in this exact same scenario last week and nearly beat the Raiders outright. The line is the giveaway here as the oddsmakers are baiting you with a number under a touchdown. The public is heavy on the Titans, with over 62% of the tickets and 73% of the money bet on Tennessee, yet the line isn’t moving. Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson has struggled so far with just 2 TD’s to 7 INT’s However, he’s faced the Panthers, Patriots, and Broncos, all of whom rank in the top three in the NFL in passing yards allowed and net passing yards per attempt allowed. Now Wilson and the Jets face a Titans D that ranks 18th in passing yards allowed per game (259PYPG) and rank 25th in passing yards per attempt allowed (7.8). The Titans’ strength is their offense, but they may be short a few weapons at the WR spot with Julio Jones and A.J Brown both out. Again, after facing three quality defenses the Jets should have some success moving the ball against this Titans D which is average in yards allowed per game and have given up 30+ points twice already. Since 2016 Tennessee is 7-12 ATS as a road favorite and they’ve won those games by an average of just 1.7PPG. Since 2015 the Jets are 15-10-1 ATS as a home dog and they’ve lost those games by just -4.8PPG. Plug your nose and bet New York.

#263 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Giants +7 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Giants are 0-3 but they’ve been competitive each of the last 2 weeks losing by 1 & 3 points. Their YPP differential on the season is basically dead even and we feel this team is better than their 0-3 record. The Saints have no right being favored by a TD. Their offense is one of the most pedestrian in the league averaging 4.3 YPP (29th). On top of that, their QB Winston is a turnover machine (121 turnovers by HIMSELF in 75 stars) and if you lose the turnover battle in the NFL it’s extremely tough to win, much less by more than a TD which is where they sit here if they want to cover. In their 2 wins they were gifted a combined 6 turnovers by Green Bay & New England. They scored 38 points vs GB despite only gaining 322 total yards and last week put up 25 vs the Patriots on just 252 yards of offense. Two deceiving wins have pushed this line to a TD vs the Giants. The fact is, despite their 2-1 record, the Saints are getting outgained by 70 yards per game and their YPP differential is -0.5. The Giants have been very solid on the road losing by more than a single score just ONCE in their last 14 games. They have also been a huge money maker as a road dog covering 17 of their last 20 in that spot. We think the Giants have a shot to win outright here. Take the generous points.

#178 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -3.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Okie State has played the MUCH tougher schedule here and they are 4-0 on the season. 3 of their wins have come vs Tulsa (who played Ohio St to the wire on the road), @ Boise State, and last week at home vs KSU. We have been impressed with their progression the last few weeks. Starting QB Sanders missed the first game of the season, struggled a bit vs Tulsa and Boise, but hit his stride last week throwing for 344 yards at home in a 31-20 win over Kansas State. His top WR Martin returned after missing the last 2 games and had 9 catches for 100 yards. The OSU defense has been playing lights out allowing just 2.6 YPC and 4.5 YPP on the season. They have allowed just 123 yards rushing total in their last 2 games vs Boise & KSU (2 YPC). That will be a problem for a Baylor team that prefers to run the ball (41 rushing attempts per game). The Bears are undefeated, however their first 3 wins were vs Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Their win last week vs Iowa State at home was one of the more misleading finals of the season. ISU gained 480 yards on 6.6 YPP in the game. Baylor gained 282 total yards on 5.2 YPP. The Bears offense scored TD’s on their first 3 possessions of the game on 206 total yards. After that, they totaled 66 yards on 30 plays for barely 2 YPP. The Bears didn’t have to show much offensively in their first 3 games vs terrible opponents and they surprises the Cyclones with some new looks, plays, and wrinkles on offense. Once the ISU defense settled in Baylor did almost nothing. Their only points after the first 3 possessions came on a 98 yard kickoff return and a short FG after a long punt return. The favorite has covered 15 of the last 21 meetings and the home team has covered 13 of the last 19. We like OSU at home.

#151 ASA PLAY ON 8* Nevada +5 over Boise State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We love this spot for Nevada. They had last week off to get ready for this game and they are coming off a loss 2 weeks ago @ Kansas State. In that game Nevada was actually favored by 1.5 to 2 points on the road and they are now getting nearly a full TD @ Boise State, a team we have power rated lower than KSU. Boise State just isn’t the program they once were. They are 2-2 on the season and have been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this year. The only team they outgained was UTEP and that final score was very misleading as the Miners turned the ball over SIX times in that game. For the season the Broncos are -50 YPG and -0.4 YPP. Last week they beat Utah State 27-3 but that was another misleading final score as the Aggies outgained Boise on both a YPG and YPP basis but had 3 turnovers, missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs twice. Nevada’s loss 2 weeks ago @ Kansas State was a bit deceiving as well. The yardage was near even in the game and KSU scored 2 TD’s in the final 6 minutes of the game. This Nevada team did win @ Cal this season as an underdog. They are +95 YPG on the season and +1.4 YPP and that’s vs a schedule that has included 2 Power 5 teams already. The Wolfpack have one of the top QB’s in the nation, Carson Strong, who has completed 68% of his passes for nearly 1,000 yards in 3 games. He’s thrown for over 6,000 yards and 45 TD’s in his career. The best QB Boise has played so far this season is UCF’s Gabriel and hit lit them up for 318 yards passing, 4 TD’s while leading his team to nearly 600 total yards. Strong will have a big day on Saturday. Nevada has covered 7 straight games as an underdog and we feel the better team is getting points in the much better situation. Take Nevada.

#170 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kent -16 over Bowling Green, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Despite facing some quality defenses (Iowa, Texas A&M and Maryland) the Kent State offense has some solid overall numbers, ranking 41st in total yards per game gained (439YPG) and 14th in rushing yards per game (237RYPG). The three defenses of Iowa, A&M and Maryland all rank 25th or better in total defense and now the Golden Flashes face a Bowling Green defense that is 99th in stopping the run. The Falcons allow an average of 207RYPG at a 4.3 per rush clip. Bowling Green on the other hand has played the 83rd overall easiest schedule yet rank 130th in rushing yards per game and 124th in total offense. Last season when these MAC foes met it was in Bowling Green and Kent State was favored by 14-points, won 62-24 and outgained the Falcons by over +300 total yards. Bowling Green is coming off a huge underdog win last week in Minnesota as a +30-point underdog while Kent State returns home off a loss at Maryland. This conference opener for both teams is going to be all chalk and a big win for the Golden Flashes. The favorite is 4-1 the last five meetings.

#106 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa -4.5 over Houston, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason the team that sits with a 1-3 record is favored over the team that has a 3-1 record. Tulsa is at home for this one and they’ve played a very tough schedule to date including games @ Ohio State and @ Oklahoma State. In their 28-23 loss @ Oklahoma State they outgained the Cowboys in that game plus held their own in the trenches limiting them to just 3.3 YPC on the ground. OSU had a 99 yard kickoff return for TD in that game which was the difference. When the Golden Hurricanes traveled to Ohio State they more than held their own vs the Buckeyes rolling up 501 total yards to 508 for the Bucks. That game was tight throughout despite the final margin. Tulsa trailed by just a TD @ Ohio State with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. Last Saturday Tulsa was back at home and topped Arkansas State 41-34. It could have been much worse as they held a 17 point lead in the 3rd quarter but ASU scored 13 of the games final 16 points including a 98 yard kickoff return. The stats in the game were extremely lopsided with Tulsa gaining 663 yards to 359 for Arkansas State. Houston steps in with a 3-1 record but they’ve played an easy schedule compared to Tulsa. The Cougs have faced Grambling, Rice, Navy, and Texas Tech thus far. Take out the Grambling game and the 2 wins for Houston vs Rice & Navy were not all that impressive. Those 2 teams are 0-6 SU combined vs FBS teams this season and 5 of those losses were blowouts. The only one that was close was Houston’s 28-20 win over Navy last week. The one decent team the Cougars played, Texas Tech, rolled them by 17 points outgaining Houston by 125 yards. Despite the big difference in opposition this season, Tulsa has gained an average of 6.9 YPP and allowed 5.6 YPP for a differential of +1.3 YPP. Houston’s YPP differential is +0.6 YPP despite their easy slate thus far. These 2 most recently met here in 2019 and Houston topped Tulsa as a 7-point dog despite getting outgained by 150 yards. Some revenge is in order on Friday night. We like this Tulsa team and feel they are undervalued right now. Lay the points here.

#965 ASA PLAY ON 8* Boston Red Sox -1.5 -155 on Run Line over Baltimore Orioles, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Orioles got the upset win yesterday but are just 13-39 last 52 games! Baltimore is 0-6 last 6 times they were off a win. The Red Sox had won 6 of 7 games at Baltimore before yesterday's loss. Boston will respond here. They will take advantage of facing Zac Lowther. The Orioles lefty is 0-2 against the Red Sox this season and has allowed 10 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings in those two starts. Boston starts Nathan Eovaldi here. The Red Sox righty has a 2.20 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Orioles. Eovaldi is off a bad start versus the Yankees but this followed a solid stretch of 8 starts in which he compiled a 2.27 ERA. The Red Sox had a recent 7-game winning streak before hitting a rough patch against the Yankees and all 7 of those victories were wins by a multiple-run margin! Note that Boston's 88 wins this season have included 62 by more than a 1-run margin. The Orioles 106 losses have included 82 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Red Sox are 42-21 in games against teams with a losing record this season. The Orioles are 29-74 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a road blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -250 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a more reasonable -155 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the run line.

#494 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +2 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is an absolute must win for Minnesota. They have played better than their 0-2 record as they really could easily be 2-0. They lost in OT @ Cincinnati when they fumbled getting into FG range for the winning points. Last week they played @ Arizona and missed what would have been the game winning FG as time expired. Now they get their home opener where they are an impressive 16-4 (80%) their last 20 as a home dog dating back to 2012. The Vikings got their rushing attack rolling last week with 177 yards on 6.6 YPC and they are facing a Seattle team that has allowed 162 YPG this year on the ground (31st). Minny RB Cook was banged up last week but all indications are he will play on Sunday. Seattle has a great home field advantage but laying points on the road had not been a money maker for this team. They are 1-0 this year in that role but just 5-14-2 ATS laying point on the road from 2016 – 2020. Seattle blew a lead at home vs Tennessee at home last week and lost in OT. The were outgained by 135 yards in that game. They’ve been outgained by 90 yards on the season thus far. Last year Minnesota was +6.5 @ Seattle and lost a tight game 27-26 but outgained the Hawks 449 to 314. We love this spot for the Vikings and expect them to win this game outright. We’ll take the points here.

#484 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland -7 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Bears won 20-17 on Sunday vs Cincinnati but the offense continues to look pedestrian at best. They only scored 1 offensive TD which was the same number of TD’s their defense scored in the game. Chicago barely had 200 yards of total offense on just 3.4 YPP – they were outgained by more than 1.0 per play in the win. The Chicago fanbase has been clamoring for rookie QB Fields to replace Andy Dalton and they got their wish when Dalton went down with a knee injury late in the 2nd quarter. Fields led the Chicago offense for 7 possessions where the totaled just 75 yards on 38 snaps (2 YPP). He also threw a key interception. He’s getting his first start of his career in a tough spot behind a shaky offensive line. Chicago is already getting outgained by more than 2.0 yards per play after just 2 weeks and if they can’t run here (Cleveland allowing just 77 YPG rushing) they are in big trouble. Too much pressure on Fields to play great to have a chance in this game. Cleveland should be 2-0 after leading KC on the road for most of the game but losing a tight game late. They had a bit of a letdown last week at home vs Houston but still won by 10 and they are outgained their opponents by 1.7 YPP after 2 games. The Browns offense is one of the best in the NFL and they are averaging 30 PPG already this season. Chicago has scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s in their 2 games. When the Chicago defense faced a good offense in week 1 (Rams) they gave up 34 points and couldn’t keep up on offense. Same story here. Cleveland wins by double digits.

#399 ASA PLAY ON 8* Nebraska +5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Prior to the season the Huskers would have been a slight favorite in this game and now just a few weeks later we’re getting nearly a TD with Nebraska. We love the value here. On top of that, Nebraska is playing really well right now. Let’s throw out their season opening loss @ Illinois (we were on the Illini) and since they are 2-1 with their only loss coming by 7-points last week @ #3 ranked Oklahoma. The Huskers actually outgained the Sooners on a YPP basis (6.0 to 5.9) and only punted twice the entire game. They were every bit the equal of Oklahoma last week and could have easily won that game. The previous week Nebraska rolled over a solid Buffalo program 28-3 and had a over 500 yards of total offense. That win looks much better now after Buffalo took #16 Coastal Carolina to the wire last week losing by a FG. The defense has looked light years better than last year allowing just 4 TD’s in their last 3 games. QB Martinez looked shaky in the season opening loss @ Illinois but has since played the best football of his career completing 49 of his 67 pass attempts (73%) with only one turnover in the last 3 games and that was a highlight reel interception by OU last week. He’s also run for 179 yards in those 3 games. MSU is improved no doubt but we have to ask how impressive are their wins? They beat NW to open the season and the Cats are flat out bad this year (lost @ Duke last week). MSU then beat Youngstown State. Throw that out. Last week they led Miami 17-14 in the 4th quarter before scoring a few late TD’s to win 38-17. The game wasn’t that lopsided as the yardage was about even but the Canes had 4 turnovers (0 for MSU) and 2 of those giveaways led to a 13 yard TD drive and a 23 yard TD drive for Sparty. Miami FL could easily be 0-3 on the season as their lone win was vs App State by 2 points in a game they could have lost. Michigan State has historically been a terrible home favorite with just a 1-12 ATS record their last 13 in that spot. The Spartans were just 3-point dogs a few weeks ago vs Northwestern and now they are laying 5 points vs a much better Nebraska team? We like the Huskers to have a great shot at pulling the upset here.

#369 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State +6 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We’ve been thoroughly impressed with KSU this season. We love their head coach Chris Klieman who is now in his 3rd year here after leading FCS power North Dakota State to a 69-6 record in his 5 years as head man at that program. This team is flying under the radar despite big wins over two very good teams Stanford and Nevada. Those wins came by margins of 17 points and 21 points respectively. Stanford has since beaten USC handily and Nevada has a road win @ California this season. Starting QB Thompson went down for KSU a few weeks ago but his replacement Will Howard has lots of experience and has played very well including in last week’s win vs Nevada where he completed 70% of his passes and had 56 yards rushing. We like KSU in the trenches here as they rank 19th nationally in rushing (226 YPG) and 5th nationally in stopping the run (55 YPG). OSU is off a big road win at Boise 21-20 blocking a Bronco FG attempt with just 2:00 minutes to go. The Cowboys haven’t been dominating by any stretch despite their 3-0 record. All of their games have been decided by a TD or less including wins vs Missouri State & Tulsa. They are really banged up at WR with 4 potentially out which has made it tough on their passing attack (just 190 YPG). KSU is 19-6 ATS in this series and a perfect 7-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points. This is a big revenger for Kansas State as well after losing 20-18 at home to OSU last season. We expect another tight game and taking nearly a TD with KSU is the way to go here.

#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET – The Phillies have won 6 straight games against right-handed starters. Philadelphia has also won 3 straight games when facing the Pirates and the combined score of those games is 35-16. Look for another dominating win here as Ranger Suarez gives the Phillies a big edge over Pittsburgh and starter William Crowe. Even though Crowe had success against the Phillies earlier this season that start was at home and he is now on the road for this one Crowe has a 6.44 ERA on the road this season and has an 8.25 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Suarez has been fantastic for the Phillies this season including a 1.92 ERA in his 10 starts! The Pirates are 14-32 against southpaw starters this season and 18-42 in day games this season! Philadelphia is 33-18 in day games this season. The Phillies won by a multiple-run margin yesterday and note that Philadelphia's 80 wins this season have included 50 by more than a 1-run margin. The Pirates 96 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Phillies are 13 games over .500 in home games this season and Pittsburgh is 23-55 in road games this season and 29-60 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -260 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -130 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line.

#387 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for the Tigers. They are coming off a HUGE home win over SEC Mississippi State and the week prior to that they beat rival Arkansas State 55-50. Last week’s 31-29 win over MSU was very deceiving. We were on Memphis so we picked up a win but if you would have shown us the final stats before the game was played, we would not have been on the Tigers. Memphis was -14 first downs and -222 yards in that win over Mississippi State. They had a 94-yard punt return and 49-yard fumble return both for TD’s. If they take UTSA lightly after last week’s big win, they will lose here. They may lose even if they play well. UTSA is a very solid, veteran team. They come into this game with a 3-0 record including a win @ Illinois in their other road game this season. Say what you will about the Illini, but in their other 2 home games they beat Nebraska and nearly beat Maryland so that was a very good road win for UTSA who had 497 total yards of offense in that game. Last week they Road Runners topped Middle Tennessee State by 14 points but it should have been much worse as they won the yardage battle by +253. Their senior QB Harris is one of the better “unknown” signal callers in the country, just ask Illinois. We have an edge at that position as the Memphis QB is a freshman that’s played in 3 games in his career. Dating back to last season UTSA has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming in their bowl game 31-24 vs a very good Louisiana team that finished last year 10-1. We’re getting the better team, getting points, in a better situation. Take Texas San Antonio.

#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia -4 over Wake Forest, Friday at 7 PM ET - We love this spot at home for UVA. They are off an embarrassing 59-39 loss @ North Carolina last Saturday. It was the Cavs first loss of the year. They are taking on a Wake team that is 3-0 but they’ve played all home games and faced a very easy schedule thus far. The Deacs topped an FCS team and a bad FBS team (Old Dominion) to start the season and then thumped a reeling Florida State team last week. While FSU isn’t very good – they lost at home the previous week to Jacksonville State – it was still a big win for WF vs a name program. The Wake defense has put up great numbers this year holding their 3 opponents to a combined 40 points but the offenses they’ve faced have been nothing close to what they’ll see on Saturday. Minus their FCS opponent, they have faced Old Dominion (122nd in total offense) and FSU (68th in total offense). Worse yet, those 2 teams aren’t adept at moving the ball through the air (ODU 118th in passing offense / FSU 84th in passing offense) and now they face a UVA team that leads the nation averaging 488 YPG through the air. The Cavs also rank 3rd in total offense and 11th in YPP offense. Wake’s defense takes a huge step up in competition on Saturday. UVA just saw one of the top offenses in the nation (UNC) last week and didn’t fare well but you can bet they’ll make adjustments this week and this will be a step down in competition for the Cavaliers. This is a game Virginia has been waiting for after losing 40-23 at Wake last year (Wake as a 2-point favorite). The yardage in the game was very close but the Cavs had 3 turnovers (0 for Wake), missed a FG, and were shut out on downs inside the WF 10-yard line. They had their chances to say the least. They haven’t been able to host WF since 2012 so it’s been almost a decade since they’ve had a shot at the Deacs here at home. Virginia has won 18 of their last 20 home games and only 3 of those 18 wins have come by less than a TD. Lay it.

#926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -140 on Run Line over New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Phillies have won 5 straight games against right-handed starters but Keegan Akin is a lefty so why would that matter? Here is the key point we are making: the last two lefties the Phillies faced were the crafty veteran Rich Hill and the very talented John Means of the Orioles. Keegan Akin does not fall into either of those two categories of southpaws! He is in his 2nd MLB season and has gone 2-10 with a 6.93 ERA in 23 games (16 starts).. In his 10 road starts this season Akin is 1-6 with an 8.64 ERA! The Orioles lefty is highly likely to struggle here and that means this game should be a blowout because the Baltimore bullpen is also one of the absolute worst in the majors this season. To stay in this game the Orioles would have to score plenty and, honestly, they will be lucky to score even a few in this one! Baltimore is up against a surging Zack Wheeler. The Phillies right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.02 ERA this month and has registered 23 strikeouts in 17 and 2 / 3 innings during this stretch. Wheeler has a 2.04 ERA in his 3 career starts versus the Orioles. More dominance expected here and he should get plenty of run support as Akin gets rocked again in this one. The Phillies won by just 1 run yesterday but note that Philadelphia's 77 wins this season have included 48 by more than a 1-run margin. The Orioles 103 losses have included 83 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Phillies are 10 games over .500 in home games this season and Baltimore is 28-73 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -300 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -140 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line.

#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – We fell just short with this play Monday but coming right back with it here. Yesterday the Yankees jumped out to a 4-0 lead and held Texas scoreless in 8 of the 9 innings but one 3-run inning was the difference. The Yankees won 4-3 but failed to cover the run line. As we mentioned here yesterday about this series, the good news for Yankees fans is they are welcoming the road-adverse Rangers to the Bronx. We look for New York to respond with not only wins but some big-margin victories in this series. Texas has lost 5 of 6 and the Rangers have been held to 3 or less runs in all 6 of those games! The Yankees got drilled Sunday by an 11-1 final but had scored an average of 5.5 runs per game over the 8-game stretch preceding that. Dane Dunning starts for Rangers here and he has struggled badly on the road this season and now makes his first ever start in the Bronx which is generally not an easy place to pitch for young starters! Dunning has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season and Texas is 1-9 in those 10 starts! Yankees start Jordan Montgomery and the lefty has a 3.25 ERA in his 11 home starts this season and New York has won all but 4 of those starts. The Yankees are 7-4 in his home starts this season. The Yankees won by just 1 run yesterday but note that New York's 84 wins this season have included 57 by more than a 1-run margin. The Rangers 95 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Yankees are 54-30 in non-divisional games and Texas is 22-53 in road games this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -240 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -125 price range by utilizing the run line. Take New York Yankees -1.5 on the run line

#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 -135 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Monday at 7:05 PM ET – After some struggles, the Yankees seemed to turn the corner with a 5-2 stretch over 7 games.  That was before back to back losses to wrap up their series with Cleveland.  The good news for the Yankees is they now welcome the road-adverse Rangers to the Bronx and we look for New York to respond after the back to back losses.  Texas has lost 4 of 5 and the Rangers have been held to 2 or less runs in all 5 of those games!  The Yankees got drilled yesterday by an 11-1 final but had scored an average of 5.5 runs per game over the 8-game stretch preceding this.  Rookie AJ Alexy starts for Rangers here and he just got used in a long relief role and got crushed so this takes the luster off his first two starts being successful.  Look for a carry-over from the rough relief outing right into a tough outing in the Bronx which is generally not an easy place to pitch for rookie starters!  Yankees start Nestor Cortes and the lefty has a 2.70 ERA in his 11 starts this season and New York has won all but 3 of those starts!  The Yankees are 4-1 in his home starts this season.  The Yankees get back on track here and note that New York's 83 wins have included 57 by more than a 1-run margin.  The Rangers 94 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin!  Also, the Yankees are 53-30 in non-divisional games and Texas is 22-52 in road games this season.  Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here.  Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -260 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -140 price range by utilizing the run line. Take New York Yankees -1.5 on the run line.

#287 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +3.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We have some serious week 1 overreaction taking place here. Prior to last week Arizona was favored by -1.5 in this game and now that they destroyed Tennessee last week and Minnesota lost in OT @ Cincinnati, this line has crossed the key number of 3 and we’re getting the Vikings at +3.5. We’ll take it. Minnesota will bring their “A” game here after losing a tough one last week in OT. The Vikes outgained Cincy in the game and had the ball moving into FG territory in OT when RB Cook fumbled. Cincy then kicked the game winning FG 2 minutes later as time expired. Minny HC Zimmer has been fabulous as an underdog off a SU loss going 21-6-1 ATS their last 28 in that role. Arizona looked great last week vs a Tennessee team we had projected to regress big time this year. The Titans despite finishing with 11 wins in the regular season, had a point differential of just +52 which ranked them 7th in the AFC and 12th in the NFL. Over half of their wins last year (6) were by 3 points or less or in overtime. Tennessee was -13 YPG last season and right around dead even in their yards per play differential (+0.1 YPP differential). They weren’t nearly as good as their record last year and last week they showed that. 3 turnovers by Tennessee led directly to 14 points for Arizona including a 1-yard TD drive by the Cards after a Titan fumble. Arizona QB Murray played the game of his life vs a poor Tennessee defense that finished last year ranked 29th in total defense and 24th in scoring defense. We expect Murray to come back to earth this week vs what we project to be a very solid Minnesota defense. Look for the Vikings to get the running game rolling this week behind Dalvin Cook. Arizona’s rush defense was near the bottom of the NFL last year but Tennessee had to abandoned their running game pretty quickly last week after getting down big early. We like the coaching edge with Zimmer as well in this game as Arizona coach Kingsbury is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite since taking over in Arizona. Take the points.

#276 ASA NFL PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh -6 over Las Vegas, Sunday at 1 PM ET - As far as situations go, the Raiders are probably in the worst spot in the NFL this week. They played a highly emotional game on Monday night in their season opener vs the Ravens. The new Allegiant Stadium in Vegas had fans for the first time ever in a regular season game and the Raiders pulled out a come from behind win in OT. It was an exhausting game to watch and we can’t imagine how Vegas can be at the top of their game here, on a short week, in an early game on the east coast. Not much was said about Pittsburgh entering the season as the Ravens & Browns were all the AFC North talk. Let’s not forget Pittsburgh was 12-4 and won the division last year with one of the best defenses in the NFL. That defense held a potent Buffalo offense to just 16 points in a road win last week. We expect the Pitt offense to perform well early in the season with QB Roethlisberger is healthy and rested. As the season wears on that may not be the case but for now, with the addition of 1st round RB Harris from Alabama, the offense should be fine. That’s all they’ll need with the dominant defense they have in the Steel City. Las Vegas, on the other hand, has a terrible defense. Last year they finished 30th in scoring defense allowing 30 PPG and 26th in defensive efficiency giving up 6 YPP. Well they didn’t look any better on Monday night with Baltimore scoring 27 points on 6.1 YPP. Two Lamar Jackson fumbles led directly to 14 points for the Raiders. We expect Pittsburgh to put plenty of points on the board here vs a bad Vegas defense while the Raiders will struggle on offense. LV HC Gruden is just 15-25 ATS the week after an outright underdog win and the Raiders are 1-7 ATS their last 8 after a Monday night game. Steelers roll.

#277 ASA NFL PLAY ON 8* Buffalo -3 over Miami, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We really like this spot for the Bills.  They are already 0-1 after losing at home to the Steelers last week and really can’t afford to drop to 0-2.  We were on Pittsburgh last week but Buffalo did outgain them by over 100 yards and didn’t trail until the 4th quarter.  The Steelers had a blocked punt for a TD in the final quarter which completely turned the game around.  Buffalo was able to run the ball effectively (4.7 YPC) vs a top notch Pittsburgh defense AND without their top RB Moss.  He is back this week and we look for a balanced offense to give the Fins big problems.  Miami picked up a 17-16 win @ New England but the fact is they were thoroughly outplayed in that game.  The Pats outgained the Fins by 130 yards, had 8 more FD’s and a 13 minute time of possession edge.  The Dolphins defense allowed almost 400 yards to a New England team starting a rookie QB.  Fumbles killed New England last week including one on the Miami 11-yard line late in the game as the Patriots were moving in for the go ahead score.  Buffalo has owned Miami winning 4 straight by an average score of 38-23 with the Bills scoring at least 30 points in all 4 games.  We have a big edge at QB with Josh Allen over Tua in this game.  In Allen’s 6-stars vs Miami he is 5-1 with almost 1,600 yards passing and 17 TD’s.  We had Miami as a team that would regress in 2021 after they made the playoffs last year despite getting outgained by more than a half yard per play (-0.6 YPP differential).  We hate to use the word must win this early in the season but Buffalo is approaching the game in that way.  The better team backed into a corner here laying only a FG is definitely worth a play.

#280 ASA NFL PLAY ON 8* Indianapolis +3.5 over LA Rams, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Love this spot for the Colts off a home loss, back at home vs a Rams team that destroyed a bad Chicago team on Sunday night. Another over reaction value play here. The Colts were actually favored by a point at a few spots not long ago in this one. Now they are getting more than a FG at home. Last year they weren’t tabbed a home dog at all including games vs Baltimore & Green Bay where they were favored. Let’s not forget this Indy team was 11-5 last year and made the playoffs. They added QB Wentz who actually played pretty well last week with 250 yards and 2 TD’s (no picks). The Rams looked great vs the hapless Bears on Sunday night. Their defense looked a bit vulnerable vs the run with Chicago racking up 134 yards on the ground (74 for the Rams). Indy had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and if they can get their rushing game going with Jonathan Taylor, we look for a big day from Wentz and the rest of the offense. Dogs are barking early in the NFL season with a 13-4 ATS record including 9 outright winners. This is a bad spot for the Rams and the Colts have a solid shot at the SU win so we’ll take the points.

ASA play 8* on: #162 Memphis +3.5 over Mississippi State, 4PM ET - The play here is on the home team Tigers in what we expect to be a mild upset and outright win for Memphis. We’ll gladly grab the points! Memphis has one of the best offenses in college football averaging 680 yards per game which ranks them 2nd in the nation. That is obviously not a fluke either as they averaged over 400YPG a season ago which was 28th best. The Tigers high scoring offense is averaging 55PPG this season and has averaged over 36PPG going back three full seasons. Last week the Tigers jumped out to a big lead against Arkansas State before the Red Wolves scored three Touchdowns in the 4th quarter to make it respectable. In other words, we don’t feel the Tigers defense is as bad as the 50-points they allowed last week to Arkansas State. The Wolves offense averaged over 31PPG a year ago and were 14th in total yards per game. Mississippi State is coming off a big win over NC State and have a huge game looming on deck versus LSU. While the Bulldogs are looking ahead to that game, the Tigers are focused on a huge home game versus an SEC opponent. Last week the Bulldogs returned the opening kick for a TD but were unimpressive after that, getting outgained by NC State but still winning. Since 2018 Memphis is 20-1 SU at home with an average margin of victory of 18.5PPG. They’ve also been a home dog just three times in that span and are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS in those games. Mississippi State finds themselves in unfamiliar territory here as a road favorite with this being the 6th time since 2018 in that role. Miss State is just 1-7 ATS their last 8 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Grab the points with Memphis here.

ASA play 8* on: #145 Florida State +5 over Wake Forest, 3:30PM ET - Florida State came into the season with high hopes, but an 0-2 SU start has dampened the Seminoles spirits. They are facing a “must win” situation here if they want to salvage any semblance of a successful season. The Noles played a top ten team in Notre Dame to the wire in the opener but came up short. Then last week they suffered a big upset loss (favored by 28) to Neon Deon Sanders and Jacksonville State. FSU lost that game on a 59-yard Hail Mary pass to end the game. Now the Noles must get back up to face an ACC foe in Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are off to a 2-0 start, but they’ve faced Norfolk State and Old Dominion. Old Dominion didn’t play last season and was 1-11 SU the year before. Despite playing two bad programs the Deacons rank 75th in total yards per game, 74th in passing and 70th in rushing offensively. Wake Forest has decent defensive numbers, but they are not what they should be considering the competition they’ve faced. FSU has a decisive rushing advantage here and can win this game in the trenches. Had this game been played the first week of the season the Noles may have been favored in this game and now they are catching over a field goal. In fact, going back to 2010 the Deacons have never been favored in this series. Going back to 2018 Florida State is 11-8 SU when coming off a loss and we like them here plus the points.

#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - After finishing with a solid 6-2 record but we felt they were due for a regression this year. The benefitted from a +8 turnover margin last year, they were outgained on the year despite their winning record, beat only 1 team that ended last year with a winning record, and their QB isn’t anywhere near 100%. Michael Penix is just 8 months removed from a 2nd ACL tear on the same knee. Our word from IU is that he is probably only 80% at best. You can see it in his play. His legs were a big part of his success at QB and he isn’t comfortable running yet this season. He’s very uncomfortable in the pocket with pressure, which is understandable, but that does not lead to success throwing the ball. He’s barely averaging 4.0 yards per pass attempt which means IU has become a dink and dunk offense. Their running game has been poor averaging 2.5 YPC vs Iowa and 3.6 YPC vs a bad Idaho team. That means in order to beat Cincy, most likely Penix will need a huge game and we just don’t see it. The Bearcats defensive front is every bit as good as Iowa’s who put constant pressure on Penix and held the Hoosiers to just 6 points. They bounced back after that loss and beat Idaho but not nearly as impressive as the score indicated. IU averaged just 4.8 YPP vs the Vandals and had 2 special teams TD’s in the game. Cincy was one of the best teams in the nation last year going 9-1 with their only loss coming by 3-points vs Georgia in the Peach Bowl. They return many key players from a great defense that allowed 16 PPG and just 4.6 YPP. They also bring back one of the better QB’s in the country as Desmond Ridder threw for 2,300 yards, 19 TD’s and rushed for almost 800 more. The Bearcats have won their first two games by a combined score of 91-21. That includes a 49-14 win over Miami Oh in week one and the Redhawks turned around and nearly won at Minnesota the following week showing how impressive that Cincinnati win was. We’re laying points on the road here but Cincinnati is the much better overall team at this time. Once Penix gets back to 100%, the Hoosiers will be much better but he’s nowhere near that right now. Lay it.

#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Minnesota Twins, Friday at 7:07 PM ET – Hyun-Jin Ryu is off a poor start for the Blue Jays but he had been pitching very well.  Ryu had a bad start at Baltimore but before that he had only one truly rough outing the last 5.  In the other 4 of the 5 outings, Ryu allowed just 14 hits in 25 innings.  Look for him to prove to be tough on a Twins team that has lost 6 of 8 games and have scored an average of only 3.8 runs in last 10 games.  In fact, removing two high-scoring wins from the equation, Minnesota averaged just 2.9 runs in the other 8 games.  Look for the red hot Blue Jays to roll in this game.  Toronto is on a 13-2 run and has scored an average of 8 runs per game during this stretch.  The Jays face Twins starter Michael Pineda in this one.  The right-hander has a 12.34 ERA in last 3 starts against Toronto and allowed 7 homers in those 3 outings.  Pineda enters this start off a good outing versus the Royals but had a 5.80 ERA in his 9 prior starts.  The Blue Jays stay hot here and note that Toronto's 82 wins have included 68 by more than a 1-run margin!  The Twins 83 losses have included 64 by more than a 1-run margin.  Also, the Blue Jays are 61-44 versus right-handers and Minnesota is 16-33 versus southpaws this season.  Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here.  Hotter batters and a huge pitching edge and you can see why the big Blue Jays hot streak is likely to continue this evening.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play-on team is available in a "pick" money (-110) price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line.

#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +110 on Run Line over Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 3:07 PM ET – Tampa Bay got the win yesterday but this followed losses in 7 of 12 games overall and 4 of 5 road games.  Toronto had been red hot before yesterday's loss.  The Blue Jays had won 15 of 17 games before the loss yesterday.  67 of Toronto's 81 wins this season have been by 2+ runs.  With the pitching edge here, look for another blowout win for Toronto as they bounce back from yesterday's defeat.  Robbie Ray gets the call for the Jays.  He has held the Rays to a total of just 3 earned runs on 11 hits while striking out 24 over 21 innings in his last 3 starts against them.  All of those were within the past 4 months by the way.  The point is that Robbie Ray has fared well in the current season versus the Rays.  The Tampa Bay starter in this one is Michael Wacha and he has pitched a little better of late but he did not face a team that is hot-hitting right now like the Blue Jays are.  Toronto has averaged 8 runs a game in the 15 victories during their 15-3 run.  Wacha has a 5.77 ERA on the road this season as a starter with a 1-3 record away from home.  Toronto is 6-1 last 7 times when off a loss.  Tampa Bay scoring an average of 3.7 runs last 6 games. Toronto scored 5 or more runs in 12 of last 14 games.  Hotter batters and a huge pitching edge and you can see why the big Blue Jays bounce back is likely this afternoon.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play-on team is available in a plus money (+110) price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Las Vegas +4 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday 8:20PM ET - Yes, we know about the Ravens 5-0 SU their last five season openers and they’ve won those games by an average of 30PPG but the value in this game clearly lies with Las Vegas. This is the first true home game at Allegiant Stadium in front of a sellout 65,000 fans for the Raiders and we expect that energy to carry them through this game. The Ravens have suffered several key injuries recently and are down to their 4th running back and just lost corner Marcus Peters. The Raiders weren’t not good defensively last year so they signed several players on that side of the football in the offseason and brought in a new D-coordinator so expect a drastic improvement on that side of the football. Las Vegas has weapons on offense with QB Derek Carr (4100 yards 27 TDs to 9 INTs) TE Waller (1200 rec yards 9TDs) and running back Josh Jacobs (1065 rushing yards 12 TD). We feel the Ravens impressive 3-0 preseason has influenced this line which is too high in our opinion. Baltimore was 19th in total yards a year ago, 1st in rushing, last in passing. The defense was top 10 in nearly every key category. The Raiders can trade points with the Ravens with an offense that was 8th in total yards, 7th in passing, 14th in rushing and 10th in scoring. Public perception has forced the oddsmakers to set an inflated number here. Bet the Raiders.

#474 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Patriots will be one of the most improved teams in the NFL.  It’s actually somewhat amazing they finished with a respectable 7-9 record as we’d argue the Covid situation affected this team more than any other.  They had more opt outs on the season than every other team and a number of players that remained were hit hard including QB Newton who was never the same after contracted Covid.  Newton is now gone and Belichick is going with rookie QB Jones from Alabama as the starter.  It he simply manages the game and doesn’t make mistakes this team will be very solid.  They spent more in free agency in the off season than any other team and they did so on very solid players as they always do.  The New England defense will be one of the best in the NFL and facing a banged up Miami OLine.  Fins starting LT Jackson is on the Covid list and may not play leaving a rookie or a lineman they signed 2 weeks ago as the starter.  Pats are 8-1 ATS their last 9 at home vs Miami including 21-11 win here last year and outgained the Dolphins by 1.1 YPP in that game.  New England was a 6.5 point favorite in that game and now they are laying 3 despite being vastly improved from a year ago.  Miami, because they made the playoffs, we feel is a bit overvalued as they were outgained by 0.6 YPP by their opponents.  Tua was a disaster last year (44.8 QBR – 26th in the NFL) and in his lone start vs Belichick’s depleted defense he threw for just 145 yards with 0 TD’s and 1 pick.  We look for him to struggle again on Sunday.  The host has covered 16 of the last 21 in this AFC East rivalry and we have the Patriots winning by more than a FG here.

#453 ASA NFL PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh +6.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Too many points here.  These 2 met last year and Buffalo was favored by just 2 points and picked up a 26-15 win helped by a 51-yards interception return for a TD.  Now a year later we’re getting almost a full TD with a Pittsburgh team we expect to be better than last season.  The Steelers began the last season 11-0 before faltering down the stretch and then losing in the wild card round of the playoffs.  An aging Ben Roethlisberger played fairly well early in the year but struggled down the stretch throwing 10 of his 14 interceptions in the final 7 games (including playoff game).  He should be rested, healthy and refreshed early in the season so we expect him to play well.  He has 3 very good WR’s to throw to as well.  Part of the Steelers offensive struggles last year was due to their terrible running game (last in the NFL).  That all changes this year with first round pick RB Harris from Alabama stepping into the starters role.  Defensively this team will be at the top of the league again this year.  They are the best pass rushing team in the NFL and TJ Watt is now back in the line up.  Buffalo is very good but possibly a bit overrated entering the season after last year’s successful run.  They are favored by -6.5 in this game vs a playoff team from last season and last year they were favored by -6.5 or more just THREE times the entire regular season.  Two times vs the Jets and once vs the Patriots.  Pittsburgh has the BEST road underdog record over the last 6 seasons covering 15 of their 21 games in that situation.  This one stays close and we’ll take the points.

#377 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +7 over Michigan, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a pure value play on Washington. This line prior to last week’s games was Michigan -1 or -1.5. Now because Michigan beat Western Michigan handily and Washington was upset by an FCS team, this number moved through -3, -4, and -6 (three key numbers) and onto another key number -7. That’s simply too much of an overreaction after one week. Washington look poor last week no way around that. They turned the ball over 3 times and didn’t create a single turnover. The Huskies tallied just 291 total yards in their 13-7 loss vs Montana. UW had 11 more first downs, won the overall yardage & time of possession battle and the defense held the Grizzlies to 3.4 yards per play. They were flat and turnovers (-3) decided the game. We expect Washington to rally big time this week as they are now backed into a corner so to speak off that loss. The defense has a chance to be elite. Michigan ran the ball at will last week vs a small MAC defensive front but that won’t happen this week. Wolverine starting QB McNamara only completed 9 passes and didn’t have to do much to get this win. He’s still fairly inexperienced and will have to do much more here to get this win vs a big step up in competition. That was made much more difficult with Michigan WR Bell (top offensive player on the team) was injured last week and is now out for the season. The Wolverine defense was OK last week but WMU did get into Michigan territory 6 times and came away with only 14 points. Washington has not been an underdog of 7 or more points since 2016. This team had an energetic week of practice after their upset loss and they will be ready here. This one will be close. Take the points.

#350 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iowa State -4 over Iowa, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Iowa is coming off what looks like a dominating performance in their 34-6 win over Indiana last Saturday. Not so fast on that assumption. The Hawkeye offense scored only 2 TD’s while the defense had two pick 6’s accounting for 14 of the 34 points. Iowa barely totaled 300 yards and were held to just 4.7 YPP. Defensively Iowa looked great but remember they were facing an Indiana QB Penix who is not even close to 100% coming off ACL surgery for the 2nd time on the same knee. He couldn’t even plant to throw and it showed with 3 interceptions and just 156 yards passing on 31 attempts (a measly 5.0 yards per attempt). ISU got a scare last week at home as they struggled to top Northern Iowa 16-10. They played a similar game out of the gate last year and lost at home to Louisiana and then turned around and beat TCU and Oklahoma the next 2 weeks. The Cyclones were obviously looking ahead to this one last week and when facing one of the very best programs in FCS (Northern Iowa) was able to keep it close in a game that was their “super bowl” so to speak against a big boy in the state. ISU is simply better at nearly every unit in this game. They have the better QB (Purdy), one of the top RB’s in the country (Hall), 5-starters back on the offensive line, and defensively they return their 20 top tacklers from last year’s 9-3 team that beat Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. Iowa has one of the more inexperienced offensive lines in the nation (115th in starts returning), their QB Petras is inconsistent at best (under 50% completions last week for just 145 yards), he lost 2 of his top 3 WR’s, and the defense while still solid, lost almost their entire front 4. Iowa State is the much more complete team and they are at home. This is a HUGE game for the ISU program having lost 5 straight to their cross-state rivals. Iowa turned the ball over just ONCE in those 5 games combined (6 turnovers for ISU) and yet 2 of the last 3 meetings Iowa had to come from behind late in the 4th quarter to win by 1 point and by 3 points in OT. HC Matt Campbell is putting a big time emphasis on winning this game as to be expected. We like the Cyclones to win by at least a TD here.

#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 -130 on Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET – The Giants are rolling once again.  With yesterday's 6-1 win here over the Cubs, San Francisco has won 7 of last 8 games.  Also, all 5 wins in their current 5-game winning streak have come by at least a 2-run margin.  The Cubs start Zach Davies here.  The right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in last 2 home starts.  Davies is 6-10 on the season and has a 5.58 ERA in his home starts this year.  Kevin Gausman starts for the Giants and is a fantastic 13-5 on the season including 7-2 in road starts.  Gausman has a 1.95 ERA on the road this season!  Gausman allowed zero earned runs and struck out 10 in his lone start versus Chicago this season.  Davies got hit very hard and was unable to complete 5 innings in his lone start versus the Giants this season.  San Francisco is set up well for a big road blowout win here and Gausman should once again dominate.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in an reasonable money (-130) price range on the run line. Take San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the run line.

#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -8 over Dallas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - This spread opened -6.5 over the summer and has pushed through the key number of -7 with no buyback whatsoever. That speaks volumes. Our power rating on this is closer to -10 so we still think there is value with the Bucs. We expect Dallas to start the season slow on both sides of the ball. Offensively QB Prescott will be taking his first live snaps in almost a year as he was injured last October and hasn’t played since. Defensively the Cowboys were poor last year ranking 23rd in both YPG & YPP allowed. Now they are learning a different system under new DC Quinn and it will take them some time to get acclimated. Tampa is the opposite. They return all 22 starters which is extremely rare in the NFL and we look for them to be clicking on all cylinders right away. Last season the Bucs had to find their way so to speak with new QB Brady but they improved greatly as the season went on. Tampa scored 25 or more points in just 6 of their first 12 games and then put up 26+ in their final 8 games averaging 34 PPG during that stretch (including playoffs). WR Mike Evans was recently quoted as saying the TB offense is “miles” ahead of where it was last year at this time. We expect the Bucs defense to be one of the tops in the league again in 2021. They were #1 vs the run last year allowing just 81 YPG. They should be able to take away the Dallas rushing attack with the Cowboys top run blocker and top overall OL Martin out for this one due to Covid. That means Prescott will need a huge game in order for the Boys to stay in this one and we just don’t see that happening. Too much time away from full speed action for him just to turn it on and be at the top of his game. He hasn’t been able to work with his receivers vs real defensive bullets and his top WR Lamb has been out for a few weeks with Covid and just returned. Tampa wins this one by double digits.

#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Mets -1.5 -100 on Run Line over Miami Marlins, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET – The Marlins got the win in extra innings yesterday but that was with their top pitcher on the mound. Now Jesus Luzardo gets the call. The Miami southpaw is 4-6 with a 6.53 ERA and his repertoire of pitches pales in comparison to that of the stuff yesterday's starter, Sandy Alcantara, has. Luzardo has been charged with 8 earned runs on 15 hits in 10 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts versus NL East opponents and both of those starts were at home just like this one is against another divisional foe. The Marlins had lost 13 of 19 before coming up with the tight win in 10 innings yesterday. The Mets had won 8 of 10 games prior to yesterday's loss. Look for Marcus Stroman to help lead the Mets to victory here. The New York right-hander has a 2.93 ERA on the season and New York is 3-0 in his last 3 starts. He has a 2.84 ERA this season in starts versus the Marlins. 9 of the Mets last 10 wins have come by a margin of 2+ runs and our computer math model for this game is strongly favoring a big win for the Mets as Stroman comes up with a gem and the Mets bats (6.6 runs per game in that 8-2 run) bounce back from yesterday's loss. New York is set up well for a big road blowout win here and Stroman should once again dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in an even money (-100) price range on the run line. Take New York Mets -1.5 on the run line.

ASA play on 8* Mississippi -9 over Louisville, Monday - Ole Miss returns an experienced roster with 64 returning lettermen and 17 starters back. Contrast that to the Cardinals are one of the least experienced teams in the nation with just 14 starters back and a host of freshman. Both teams have their starting QB’s back but Rebels starter Matt Corral rates better than UL’s QB Malik Cunningham. Cunningham will be asked to carry the load offensively as he lost 4 of their top 6 receivers and top rusher while the Rebels return most of their skill players. Last year UL gave up 42+ vs. Miami, Ga Tech and Va Tech and none of those teams are near as good offensively as Ole’ Miss. Mississippi had horrible defense numbers a year ago, including allowing 38.3PPG, but those numbers came against much better teams and offenses in the SEC, including Bama and Florida, who were top 13 in scoring a year ago. An interesting factor in this line is that the number didn’t fluctuate with the announcement of Ole’Miss coach Lane Kiffin not being available to coach this game. That tells us Vegas doesn’t want to move off of a key number like -10 for fear of getting pounded by Mississippi money. Lay the points with Ole’Miss here.

#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -120 on Run Line over St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET –  Jon Lester is off a good start at Cincinnati but quality outings certainly have been the exception rather than the norm for the veteran lefty this season.  Lester, in his other recent starts, has had to work out of a lot of jams.  The fact is he is very hittable and the lefty is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.70 WHIP on the road this season.  The Brewers counter with Corbin Burnes and he has been fantastic this season.  The Brewers are a perfect 8-0 in his last 8 starts and 7 of those 8 wins were by 2+ runs!  The Cardinals are off a shutout loss in yesterday's match-up and have now lost 8 of last 11 games against right-handed starters.  St Louis is very likely to struggle again here as Burnes has held his opponent to just 1 earned run or less in 9 of last 11 starts!  Milwaukee is 37-18 in day games this season. Burnes has faced the Cardinals 3 times this season and has allowed a total of just 1 earned run in 17 innings versus St Louis!   The Brewers just faced Lester about two weeks ago and the southpaw allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 4 and 1 / 3 innings and he did not record a single strikeout.  65 of the Brewers 83 victories have been by 2+ runs this season while 49 of the Cardinals 65 losses have been by 2+ runs this season.  Milwaukee is set up well for a big home blowout win here and Burnes should once again dominate.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very reasonable -120 price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line.

#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State +17 over Washington State, Saturday at 11 PM ET - We expect USU to be drastically improved this year. This team was a train wreck last year and it was mainly due their leadership at the top. Former HC Gary Andersen was terrible. He quit at Wisconsin to take the Oregon State job. He then quit partway through the season on OSU and ended up back at Utah State where he was before he took the Badger job. USU was a rudderless ship last year and the players tanked the season to say the least. The players were so distraught they opted to not even play their final game of the season. They have since hired former Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson who was extremely successfully at ASU with a 51-37 record including 6 bowl appearances. He brought a few players with him from Arkie State including his starting QB Bonner who along with last year’s USU starter Peasley gives the Aggies a decent QB room. Word from Logan, Utah is the players love their new coach and have an entirely different attitude entering this season. They are experienced with 19 starters back and Anderson brought in a number of key Power 5 transfers from programs like Michigan, Texas, Georgia Tech, and Kansas who will contribute. This is a play against WSU as well. It’s really tough to lay 17 points with a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone over the last few seasons. The Cougs allowed 38 PPG last season (1-3 overall record) and 32 PPG in 2019. They allowed 450+ YPG in both of those seasons. 2nd year head coach Rolovich came from Hawaii and he likes to run an up tempo offense trying to outscore opponents but last year they averaged just 27 PPG. Utah State should be able to put points on the board in this game and Washington State will have a tough time running away with this. Take the big points with USU.

ASA play on 8* California -3 over Nevada, Saturday 10:30 PM ET - Nevada is a bit of a media darling with QB Carson Strong garnering Heisman attention which has impacted the number and forced it to be set lower than it should be. The Wolfpack offense posted some impressive numbers a year ago with Strong throwing 27 TD’s and over 2,800- passing yards last season. Nevada was 7-2 SU in a shortened season a year ago, but their record and numbers were a by-product of weak competition. The Wolfpack didn’t have a win over a team ranked higher than 53rd in our final rankings and four of those wins came versus teams ranked 97th or worse. So even though Nevada returns 22 overall starters, and had a solid record on paper, they aren’t as good as advertised. Cal is also loaded with returning talent and should be eager after playing just four games a year ago. The Bears return their starting QB in Chase Garbers who has 23 career starts under his belt. Cal has experience on the other side of the football with 9 starters back on a defense that can nullify the Wolfpack offense. The Bears have struggled in the Pac-12 going back to 2018 with a 9-13 SU record and a negative point differential, but they are 7-1 SU their last eight non-conference games with an average MOV of +9PPG. Grab the value and Cal.

#153 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State +3.5 over Northwestern, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - Our power ratings have MSU as a small favorite in this game so we feel the value is on Sparty. They had a rough season last year with a 2-5 record, however it was their first year under new HC Tucker and we expect some solid improvement with a full year in both the offensive and defensive system. They return almost all of their key offensive players including an OLine that has combined to make 147 career starts which is the 4th most nationally. MSU upgrades at QB where they struggled greatly last year by adding Temple transfer Anthony Russo who had over 6,000 yards passing and 44 TD’s in his Temple career. The Spartans running game was poor last year but that should also improve greatly with a steady offensive line and Wake Forest transfer Walker starting at RB. Northwestern lost as much experience as any team in the country. They surprised many by winning the Big 10 West last year but bring back only 8 starters. The Cats lost their starting QB, most of their offensive line, and their top 4 pass catchers. Defensively they lost many of their key contributors including their top corner (to the NFL), top 2 pass rushers, and top 2 LB’s. Hunter Johnson was named the starting QB of the inexperienced offense and that’s not a good thing for NW. He was handed the job in 2019 and proceeded to complete just 46% of his passes, threw just 1 TD, and led an offense that averaged 14 PPG in his 6 starts. Their only win with Johnson at the helm was vs UNLV and he battled again for the job last year and did not play a single down during the season. Now he’s back as the starter. Not good. MSU had a down year in 2020, while NW won the Big 10 West yet in their only meeting a season ago the Spartans topped the Cats 29-20. It wasn’t a fluke as MSU outgained Northwestern by almost 100 yards and dominated in the trenches with 195 yards rushing while holding the Cats to 63. Now we expect a big improvement from Michigan State while Northwestern takes a big step back. No reason to believe MSU won’t win again this year taking that into consideration. NW has very little home field advantage with a 9-9 SU record here the last 3 season (very few fans, small stadium that is often overrun by opposing fans). Take the points with Michigan State

#140 ASA PLAY ON 8* Appalachian State -10 over East Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We like the value of the move in this game as App State opened a 13-point favorite and are now laying -10-points. There is one decided advantage Appalachian State has in this match-up and it's their ground game against the Pirates rush defense. The Mountaineers return a bevy of playing time on the O-line and 8-starters on offense. App State averaged 253-rushing yards per game a year ago (8th best) and 5.2-yards per rush (5th). They exploited an ECU defense that couldn’t stop the run allowing 201.3-rushing yards per game (95th) and 5.2-yards per rush allowed (103rd). Appalachian State has a void to fill at QB, but Chase Brice, a Clemson/Duke transfer, should fit in nicely. The ‘Neer’s defense has historically been a strength and will be again in 2021-22 with 9 starters back on that side of the football. East Carolina is expected to finish near the bottom of the conference again and will have a tough time in this game against a veteran App State team. ECU does return talent on the offensive side of the football, but their defense allowed 42PPG in 2019 and 34PPG last year. ECU was 3-6 SU last year with four of those losses coming by double-digits. Appalachian State was 9-3 SU last season with an average margin of victory of +13.8PPG.

#142 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -18 over South Florida, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We like NC State to be a surprise team in the ACC. We rate them as the 2nd best team in the Atlantic Division behind Clemson. The Wolfpack are coming off an 8-4 season and 2 of those losses were by 3 points or less. They are one of the more experienced teams in the nation with 20 starters returning. Not only that, they have 28 players we’d consider “starters” due to the number of minutes they’ve played even when not starting. Their QB Leary played last year but was banged up for much of the season and he is back healthy. They have a solid and experienced offensive line, they bring back all of their top RB’s and WR’s and their defense returns it’s top 12 tacklers from last year. USF is in rebuilding mode in HC Jeff Scott’s 2nd year. The Bulls were decimated by Covid last year (as many teams were) and finished 1-8 with their only win coming vs the Citadel. 5 of their 8 losses came by at least 20 points. Since the start of the 2019 season this team has won only 5 games and 2 of those 5 wins were vs non FBS opponents (the Citadel & South Carolina St). They have a new starting QB Fortin who threw only 8 passes in last year’s injury riddled season. The offense topped 4.5 yards per play only 3 times in 8 games vs FBS teams last year and breaking in a new QB they will probably struggle early in the year. The Bulls defense was poor last year to say the least allowing 40 PPG on 441 YPG including getting whipped up front giving up 212 YPG rushing. They put zero pressure on the opposing QB netting just 7 sacks the entire season – only Navy & Arizona had fewer. USF has played 3 Power 5 teams the last 2 seasons (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, & Georgia Tech) and they’ve lose those games by an average score of 38-3. This is a bad first match up for this team and we expect a 20+ point win for NC State.

#901 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 runs (-130) over San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET - The money line on this game has moved toward the Giants and the run line has followed suit as of early Thursday morning.  This has put the Brewers +1.5 runs into a very playable range as it is now around a -130 price.  The Giants, even if they win this game, have 25 wins by just 1-run this season.  Only two teams in the majors have more than that.  The point is that San Francisco may not even win this game and, if they do, it might be by just a single run.  Only 59 of the Giants 133 games this season have been a SF win by a margin of 2 or more goals.  With the way San Francisco is slumping, that is likely to be 59 of 134 after this one goes into the books.  The Giants have lost 4 straight games overall and also 4 straight home games.  San Francisco, with yesterday's loss, dropped to 23-18 this season against left-handed starters.  The Brewers have been the best road team in the majors this season with a record of 46-23. Milwaukee starter Eric Lauer has given up some big hits to the Giants in recent meetings at San Francisco but still he is 3-0 in his last 3 starts against them with only 14 hits allowed in 18 innings.  San Francisco has been in a slump at the plate and has been held to 3 or less runs in 10 of last 14 games.  The Brewers have won 8 of 11 games and have scored 4 or more runs in 8 of those 11 games.  Giants starter Logan Webb has great numbers this season but too much weight is being put on that and not enough on the overall recent play of these teams and that has led to line value with Milwaukee in this spot.  The fact the Brewers just saw Webb (for the first time) 4 weeks ago also should help them here.  Brewers are 66-37 against right-handed starters this season and, just like last year, Webb is again struggling more against left-handed bats than righties. Just like yesterday's game, look for the Brewers to have left-handed bats for at least 4 of the 8 position players.  Look for the hot team to get the upset but, if they do fall short, the run line should prove to be ample insurance.  Bet the Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 runs on the run line.

#952 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +105 on Run Line over St Louis Cardinals, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - Jon Lester has a decent ERA last 3 starts but has had to work out of a lot of jams.  The fact is he is very hittable and the lefty is 1-4 with a 6.15 ERA on the road this season.  The Reds counter with Luis Castillo and he has been fantastic this summer.  After a very rough May, Castillo has been back to his typical dominating form.  Since June 1st, Castillo has an impressive 2.74 ERA.  The Cardinals are off a loss at Pittsburgh and have now lost 6 of last 7 games against right-handed starters.  The Reds are off a loss at Miami yesterday but are 36-22 in divisional games this season and happy to be back home where they have won 10 of last 12 games!  The Cardinals are 21-34 this season in games against teams with a winning record.  51 of the Reds 71 victories have been by 2+ runs this season while 47 of the Cardinals 63 losses have been by 2+ runs this season.  Cincinnati is set up well for a big home blowout win here and Castillo should dominate.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a +105 price range on the run line. Take Cincinnati Reds -1.5 on the run line.

#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 -135 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - The Astros are 11-3 against the Rangers this season.  Zack Greinke is 3-0 last 3 starts versus Texas and those victories were all by multiple-run margins - an aggregate score of 21 to 9.  Greinke is 6-0 with a 2.34 ERA on the road this season.  Taylor Hearn starts for the Rangers here and is 0-2 with a 5.78 ERA in his 3 home starts on the year.  Texas is on an 11-35 run and 30 of those 35 losses have been by more than 1 run!  You can see why we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs here to get a reasonable price on an Astros team that should dominate here.  Greinke in line for a great start and the Rangers are 22-56 against right-handed starters this season.  Houston is a fantastic 36-16 in divisional games this season and still working hard to hold off Oakland at the top of the AL West.  That said, Greinke and the Astros are unlikely to let Hearn and the Rangers stand in the way on Sunday afternoon.  The Astros have won 7 of 9 games and 18 of their last 20 victories have been by 2+ runs.  Houston is set up well for a big road rout win here and Greinke should dominate.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a reasonable -135 price range on the run line. Take Houston Astros -1.5 on the run line.

#117 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -3.5 over Houston, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Super Bowl champs step into this game with an 0-2 pre-season record. QB Brady has played one series the entire pre-season and the starters have been very limited. In their game last weekend vs Tennessee, most of the starters didn’t even see the field. That changes this week. Tampa head coach Bruce Arians stated he needs to get his regulars some extended playing time in preparation for their NFL opener vs Dallas. "We can't go against Dallas and all of sudden play game speed. We've got to have some game speed under our belt before we show up against the Cowboys,” Arians said this week. Houston, on the other hand, is 2-0 in the pre-season beating the Packers and the Cowboys. Their defense has yet to play against a legit QB having faced Jordan Love, Kurt Benkert, Ben DiNucci, Garrett Gilbert, and Cooper Rush so far in their 2 NFLX games. Now they’ll have to face Brady and the Tampa starters for an extended period of time. Despite their 2 wins the Houston offense, still without QB Watson, has averaged just 4.4 YPP. Now they will face perhaps the top defense in the NFL with their QB rotation of Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Driskel, and Davis Mills. If the Tampa starters play as planned, we basically have one of the top teams in the NFL (Bucs) facing one of the worst teams in the NFL (Texans). We’ll lay it in this game and take Tampa to cover.

#952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET - We had our eyes on this potential match-up for Saturday and it could not have been set up more perfectly. The Phillies off a big win in extra innings at home yesterday and can build off that momentum here. That is because the Diamondbacks are starting Humberto Mejia while the Phillies are starting Kyle Gibson. Arizona's Mejia has only 4 career starts at the MLB level and he has been hit at a .302 mark in those outings. Also, though he has some good numbers at the lower level of the minors, he has struggled facing hitters at the AAA level. In his 12 starts this year at the AAA level he compiled a 5.93 ERA and was hit at a .305 clip. As you can see, he has been hit at over .300 when facing hitters above the AA level whether in the minors or the majors. Mejia just started last week at Pittsburgh and he only allowed 2 earned runs but 6 hits in 5 innings and he walked a pair. Keep in mind, this was against a bad Pirates team and now he faces a Phillies team still fighting hard to remain in playoff contention. Philadelphia will be bolstered today by having Kyle Gibson on the mound. He is coming off a strong outing and has had 5 quality starts in his last 6 outings. Gibson allowed only 9 earned runs in 32 and 2 / 3 innings in those 5 starts and also has had strong success against the Diamondbacks in his career. This Arizona team, with yesterday's loss, dropped to 17-50 in road games this season. The Diamondbacks, prior to yesterday's one run loss, were on a run in which 19 of 23 losses were by 2+ runs. 18 of the Phillies last 25 wins were by 2+ runs before yesterday's win by a single run. Philadelphia is set up well for a big home blowout win here and Gibson should dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -105 price range on the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line.

#300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +7 over Nebraska, Saturday, August 28th at 12:00 PM ET - There is always a lot of optimism in Huskerland entering every season, however the results have not matched the “fan” expectations. This team is favored by a full TD, on the road in their Big 10 opener yet they are just 9-17 SU overall in conference play under head coach Scott Frost. They have won just 4 conference games by more than 7 points in the last 3 years. We believe they are overvalued entering the season (as per usual) and their opponent in game 1 we feel is a bit undervalued right now. The Illini had a rough 2-6 season last year but they were decimated at QB pushing all the way down to their 4th stringer due to injury/illness. This year they expect senior Brandon Peters, former Michigan starter, to have a big season and we agree. He’s operating behind a very solid, veteran offensive line that could turn out to be one of the better units in the conference. The defense returns 16 of their top 18 tacklers and new head coach Bret Bielema knows defense and likes what he sees on that side of the ball. Up front they should be vastly improved defensively with their entire DLine coming back, all upperclassmen, and a few key LB’s back in the line up that were injured last season. They should be able to limit a Nebraska running game that relies too heavily on QB Martinez (leading rusher last year). The Huskers don’t have a single RB returning that rushed from more than 75 yards the entire 2020 season. That means Nebraska may have to have a big day through the air to win this one and we simply don’t trust QB Adrian Martinez who finished 12th in the Big 10 averaging only 150 YPG passing last year. Despite their struggles last season, the Illini were able to waltz into Lincoln and whip the Huskers 41-23 on nearly 500 yards of total offense. The year before Nebraska went to Illinois and barely escaped with a 42-38 win. We expect Illinois to have a solid shot at winning this game at home and getting a TD is generous. Bielema and his new staff have pretty much given the fans and media no access to practices so Nebraska will be guessing a bit when it comes to what Illinois will be doing on both sides of the ball here. Take the points.

#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +105 on Run Line over New York Mets, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET – Some added value here as the line has moved toward the Mets.  That is because Marcus Stroman is on the mound and has some solid numbers this season for New York.  However, David Price certainly has some solid numbers for the Dodgers too and we like the fact that LA has won 9 straight games and the Mets have lost 8 of 9.  The value here is on the run line rather than laying a big price and this is true even though a number of recent Dodgers wins have been by just 1 run.  The Mets are down to their 3rd and 4th string options at catcher right now as Sisco and Mazeika because both McCann and Nido are out with injuries.  This can be tough on a pitching staff and the Mets slump likely to continue here. Also, Stroman has allowed 3 homers in his last 2 road starts and the Dodgers did explode for 3 homers in yesterday's game.  On the season the Mets are 13-24 against lefties and Price should have another solid outing here.  The Dodgers are a perfect 6-0 against the Mets this season and 59 of 78 wins on the season by 2 or more runs. Per our computer math model an easy win for the home team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a price range around +105 on the run line. Take Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the run line.

#422 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -1.5 over Indianapolis, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This line opened as a pick-em and immediately jumped to Vikings -2.5 for good reason. Minnesota looked terrible in last week’s 33-6 home loss to the Broncos and we expect a big bounce back performance here. Head coach Mike Zimmer didn’t play any of his starters last week but was still extremely upset with his team’s effort & performance and let them know it. They’ve had a very good week of practice and this team will play with some urgency after last week’s result. Zimmer also plans on playing most of his starters on Saturday. He’s always put a lot of emphasis on winning pre-season games with a 20-7 overall record which includes last week’s loss. Indy takes the road after beating Carolina on a last second FG in their opener on Monday. The Colts had to score 10 points in the final 7:00 minutes to come from behind and get the win. Now they are on a short week having been the only game last Sunday. Indy never led in that game until they kicked the game winning FG with 7 seconds remaining. The Colts had more yardage overall but also ran 21 more offensive snaps compared to the Panthers and still barely won the game. We know their starting QB Wentz is still not ready to go after an injury and won’t play in this game. Minnesota will definitely be the more motivated team in this NFLX game and we expect them to win by more than a FG. Take the Vikings.

#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Washington Nationals, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - The Nationals have suddenly won 3 straight games but this was on the heels of a 7-game losing streak and losses in 12 of last 13 games.  Yesterday the Nats got the better of the Brewers and having a lefty on the mound.  Milwaukee is only a .500 team against lefties this season but is a dominant 60-36 against right-handed starters and 34-16 in day games this season.  With the Brewers starting righty Paolo Espino, the Brewers lineup will have some of their left-handed lumber back in the lineup after they were held out of yesterday's lineup and then used in a pinch-hit role.  Washington starter Espino has a 10.80 ERA in his last 3 starts - all Nationals losses - and two of those were at home.  Nationals are also 0-3 overall this season in Espino's road starts. He'll likely prove to be no match for Milwaukee in this one.  The Brewers starting pitching situation is the much better one for this game.  Eric Lauer is 3-1 over his last 7 appearances (6 starts) and has a fantastic 1.53 ERA during this stretch. Lauer also has a 2.89 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Nationals.  The Brewers are 21-10 last 31 games and 18 of the 21 victories came by 2+ run margin or more.  Better team, better lineup, better starting pitcher, and also the much better bullpen and not just on the full season.  Over the last 30 days the Brewers bullpen has been one of the best (#2 out of 30) with a 3.16 ERA while the Nationals bullpen has been one of the worst (#28 out of 30) with a 5.52 ERA.  Also, Washington is 14-23 against left-handed starters this season and Brewers have won 6 of last 7 versus right-handed starters.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -105 price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line.

#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Washington Nationals, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - Brett Anderson enters off a rare rough outing and, of all teams, it was against the Pirates!  However, we can not ignore the fact that Anderson entered that start with a 1.40 ERA over the 5-start stretch before that rare dud.  Anderson has a 2.81 ERA in 6 home starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Patrick Corbin of the Nationals in this one.  The Washington left-hander has a 6.36 ERA on the road this year and the Nationals have lost 8 of those 11 starts.  Corbin has given up 6 homers in his last 3 starts.  Washington is off back to back wins but this was on the heels of a 5-19 run.  Milwaukee is off a loss but that was on the heels of an 18-6 run.  This is clearly a case of two teams that are, overall, heading opposite directions!  Additionally, 27 of the Brewers last 31 wins have been by a margin of 2 or more runs so we have no hesitation in laying the run line in this one and grabbing Milwaukee at -1.5 runs.  Nationals are 21-35 on the road this season and 13-23 against left-handed starters.  Also lets not forget about the bullpens here and Milwaukee rates a huge edge in that department on the season as well as the last 30 days.  In fact, over the last 30 days the Brewers have a 3.12 ERA and rank 2nd in bullpen ERA while the Nationals bullpen ranks 28th with a 5.72 ERA.  Per our computer math model an easy win for the home team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a -105 pick'em price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line.

#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - The Astros have lost 4 straight games including the first 3 games of this 4-game set with the Royals.  We don't see that continuing here.  No way.  Luis Garcia gives Houston a big edge on the mound against Kansas City in this one.  The Royals are starting Mike Minor and he has a 6.84 ERA over 50 innings spanning his last 9 starts.  The Astros Garcia is 9-3 in his last dozen decisions and has a 3.30 ERA this season with opponents hitting just .217 against him.  Houston had lost Wednesday's game after a 1-run loss Tuesday. Prior to this the Astros were 4-1 this season when they were on the road and coming off a loss by a 1-run margin.  After yesterday's tight defeat in which Houston outhit KC but lost 3-2 on the scoreboard, the Astros bounce back strong.  Houston has the best run differential in the AL so far this season with positive 161 runs.  The Royals rank 26th in the majors in that same category with negative 106 runs.  51 of Kansas City's 67 losses have come by 2+ runs this season.  58 of the Astros 70 wins have come by 2+ runs this season.  Per our computer math model an easy win for the road team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a -110 pick'em price range on the run line. Take Houston Astros -1.5 on the run line.

#931 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Nationals have lost 12 of 13 games. The Blue Jays have won 13 of 19 games. Of course this, plus a big starting pitching edge, has a lot to do with the factors behind why Toronto is a huge money line favorite in this game by odds of about 2 to 1. We would not suggest laying a price like that but we do like the Blue Jays on the run line here. Though the Nationals have had a fair number of one-run losses recently, the Blue Jays have been the masters of the big wins this season. Incredibly, Toronto has had only 8 wins by a single run margin this season and this is a team that has won 63 games on the year! 87% of the Blue Jays wins have been by 2+ runs so if you like them to win the better value, by far, has been with the run line in their games this season. Toronto starter Alek Manoah is 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 11 starts this season. Manoah is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts. Washington starter Erick Fedde is 4-8 with a 5.12 ERA in 19 starts this year. Fedde has allowed 33 earned runs in 40 innings over his last 9 games for a 7.43 ERA since late June. The Jays bullpen has a 3.46 ERA on the road this season and the Nats bullpen has a 4.59 ERA at home this season. Per our computer math model an easy win for the road team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -125 price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line.

#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Reds -1.5 -115 on Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs have lost 11 straight games.  With yesterday's 4-1 loss at Miami, 9 of Chicago's last 10 losses have been by at least a margin of two runs.  The Reds are off a 7-4 win at Philadelphia yesterday.  Cincinnati has won 8 of 12 games.  The Reds last 7 wins have featured 6 victories by at least a margin of two runs.  We like the run line value here with the home team in what should be another blowout loss for floundering Chicago.  The Cubs average margin of defeat in their last dozen losses is 4.7 runs!  Indeed Chicago is often getting beaten badly and this one looks like more of the same.  Cincinnati is 8-2 in Wade Miley's home starts and he has a 2.56 ERA at Great American Ball Park this season.  Justin Steele starts for the Cubs and has shown some flashes with good stuff.  However, he struggled last week in his first ever MLB start.  He has been working mostly out of the pen for Chicago and this is his rookie season.  In his last full season in the minors, 2019, Steele went 0-6 with a 5.59 ERA in his 11 starts. The Reds have scored an average of 6.17 runs during their current 8-4 run.  The Cubs have been held to 4 or less runs in 8 of last 9 games.  In fact the Cubs have averaged scoring only 2.13 runs in those 8 defeats.  Per our computer math model an easy win for the home team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -115 price range on the run line. Take Cincinnati Reds -1.5 on the run line.

#905 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET - The Pirates ended their 8-game losing streak with a win in Game 1 of yesterday's double-header.  Things quickly returned to normal though for Pittsburgh as the Brewers got Game 2 by a 6-0 count and dropped the Pirates to 6-19 in their last 25 games. Pittsburgh's last 18 losses have featured 16 by a margin of 2+ runs and another ugly defeat appears likely here.  The Pirates are starting Dillon Peters in this one and he has been working in the minors so far this season.  It will be just his 2nd MLB start since the 2019 MLB season.  Peters simply has not had success at the MLB level and has a 5.83 ERA with a .290 BAA in his career.  The Brewers starting pitching situation is the much better one for this game.  Eric Lauer is 3-1 over his last 6 appearances (5 starts) and has a fantastic 1.44 ERA during this stretch. Lauer also has a 0.98 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Pirates which include two this season.  The Brewers are 18-8 last 26 games and 16 of the 18 victories came by 2+ run margin or more.  Better team, better lineup, better starting pitcher, and also the much better bullpen and not just on the full season.  Over the last 30 days the Brewers bullpen has been one of the best with a 3.09 ERA while the Pirates bullpen has been one of the worst with a 5.91 ERA.  Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -125 price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line.

#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -2 over Kansas City, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - We love the Niners QB rotation for pre-season purposes and they have a big edge in that regard. KC obviously has Mahomes, however he’s coming off a leg injury during the playoffs last year and you can bet Andy Reid will be very careful with him. Even if Mahomes plays, which we’re not 100% sure he will, we expect maybe 1 series. After that it’s Chad Henne and after that it’s 2 rookie free agents. San Fran, on the other hand, has a QB battle on their hands. Starter Jimmy Garoppolo is being pushed by 1st round draft pick Trey Lance and word is both are playing well. Because there is a QB battle for the Niners, we expect both to play as if their jobs are on the line. Even their 3rd and 4th stringers behind center are solid with Josh Rosen (former 1st round pick) and Nate Sudfeld who has some experience coming over from Philly. This is a big game for the Niners at home. They are coming off a poor, injury riddled season just one year after making it to the Super Bowl and losing to this Chiefs team. SF had more injuries than any other team in the NFL last season which led to their 6-10 record which included only 1 win at home. You can bet they want to get this pre-season home opener vs the team that knocked them off in the Super Bowl. This one isn’t a big deal for KC. They’ve been to back to back Super Bowls and HC Andy Reid actually has mentioned he hopes his players can “reset” so to speak after 2 long grueling (physically & mentally) seasons. He wants them ready for the regular season and this game is meaningless to the Chiefs. Reid has proven over time he’s not into winning in the pre-season with a 39-45 record since 2003 and only 3 winning seasons in the pre-season during that span. We like San Francisco to get this win at home.

#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Friday at 10:10 PM ET - We’ve hit the fade button on bad road teams like Colorado/Arizona/Texas/KC/Pittsburgh with a number of our picks this season and with solid success overall. We’ll pull the trigger again on Friday night and side with the San Diego Padres on the run line. Arizona has lost 5 of its last 6 games overall and the Diamondbacks are 13-41 in road games on the season. 54 of Arizona's 76 losses this season have come by 2+ runs. 47 of San Diego's 62 wins have come by 2+ runs. The Padres are 20-9 against lefties this year. Tonight San Diego's lineup - still potent even with Tatis on the shelf - will face a southpaw that has struggled on the road this season. Caleb Smith has a 9.00 ERA and an 0-5 record in his 5 road starts this season. With plenty of run support, San Diego left-hander Ryan Weathers should notch a dominant home win here. Weathers is off a rare bad outing and now should come right back with a strong one in this bounce back start as he faces a Diamondbacks team that is 6-21 against southpaw starters this season. The Padres have been up and down of late but they are 36-22 at home this season and the much better team in this match-up plus in a bounce back spot after a rare blown save led to a loss in their most recent games. Adding to the value here the home team is available in a very affordable -105 price range on the run line. Take San Diego Padres -1.5 on the run line.

#923 ASA PLAY ON 8* Run Line: Minnesota Twins +1.5 runs (+115) over Houston Astros, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a classic plus plus situation as we can get the Twins at +1.5 runs and also at + money on the price.  This is a high value spot because it is a tough spot for the Astros.  Houston enters this game off a big series at Los Angeles and so they were facing (and lost to) the Dodgers last night.  The Astros then had to travel back east to get here so they lost two hours in the process with the time change.  All that in the process of getting ready for a Twins team that is starting to swing the bats better again.  While the Astros bats could be a little "sleepy" tonight, the Minnesota bats have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 8 games.  Only twice in those 8 games have the Twins failed to score at least 5 runs.  The Astros are a modest 4-4 last 8 games and 6 of the last 13 Minnesota losses have been by just a single run.  That is why, since early July the Twins have only had 7 losses by a multi-run margin last 23 games!  Griffin Jax has been pitching well since the All Star Break and allowed only 3 hits in 9 innings last two starts.  Framber Valdez starts for the Astros and has walked 9 in 11 innings over his past two starts.  Also, he had a 6.46 ERA in the 3 starts that preceded those 2 and he was hit hard in all 3 starts.  Per our computer math model the Twins have great upset potential here and if they did come up short it very well could be yet another one-run loss for them.  Bet the Minnesota Twins +1.5 runs on the run line.

#916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Cleveland Indians, Tuesday at 7:07 PM ET - The Blue Jays are a big money line favorite here but it makes sense as this one sets up well to be a complete mismatch.  We'll grab the value with the run line here as that takes the price on Toronto into the pick (-105/-110) range and, based on the edges, this should be a dominating rout.  Toronto's Hyun Jin Ryu has been dominant with a 1.62 ERA over his last 4 starts.  Now he finally gets a start at Rogers Centre in Toronto as, remember, the Blue Jays home games have just now resumed being played north of the border again.  Toronto had won each of their first 3 games of this homestand before falling short in extra innings yesterday.  With Ryu in top form and with the Jays having had won 4 straight games by a combined score of 28 to 6, the forecast is a rout in this one.  The Indians Zach Plesac just has not been the same since he returned from injury and has allowed 15 hits in 11 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts.  Plesac's strikeout numbers are down and he has allowed a homer in each of his last 3 starts while Ryu has not allowed a home run in any of his last 4 starts.  Cleveland was enduring a stretch of 18 losses in 27 games prior to getting the win in extra innings yesterday.  36 of 51 Indians losses by more than a single run margin this season.  An incredible 89% of the Blue Jays wins have been by 2 or more runs this season as 48 of their 54 wins have been by 2+ runs.  So with a Jays win likely, you can also see the odds are in your favor that a big win is likely as well!   The Blue Jays last 18 wins have all come by a multi-run margin with an incredible average winning margin of 6.2 runs.  Our computer math model is calling for another win by a big margin here and we couldn't agree more!  We’ll back the Toronto Blue Jays on the run line early Tuesday evening.

#911 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -140 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are a big money line favorite here but it makes sense as this is a complete mismatch.  We'll grab the value with the run line here as that takes the price on Los Angeles into a manageable range and, based on the edges, this should be a dominating rout.  Los Angeles delivered an 8-3 win over the Diamondbacks yesterday.  The Dodgers are now 29-12 in last 41 games against Arizona including 10-2 this season.  This is a match-up of left-handers and the Diamondbacks are 6-19 in games against left-handed starters and the Dodgers are 19-11 in games against left-handed starters this season.  Julio Urias starts for LA and is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his 3 starts against Arizona.  Urias is 12-3 this season including 9-2 in road starts.  Caleb Smith starts for Arizona and got crushed by the Dodgers 3 starts ago and allowed 3 homers in an ugly outing.  Smith also enters this outing off another start (against the Cubs) in which he allowed 3 more homers!  Arizona is 2-9 in his starts this season and the lefty has a 5.67 ERA on the year.  The Dodgers last 6 wins over the Diamondbacks have come by a combined score of 58 to 19.  Our computer math model is calling for another win by a big margin here and we couldn't agree more!  We’ll back the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line Sunday afternoon.

#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 -120 on Run Line over Cleveland Indians, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Astros got their bats going again in a big way in yesterday's 9-3 win.  Houston is now 31-19 at home and 42-23 in night games this season.  Cleveland, on the other hand, is barely above .500 on the season.  Also, the Indians have lost 14 of 20 games.  Cleveland sends a struggling Eli Morgan to the mound for this one.  Morgan has a 7.86 ERA and has been hit at a .315 clip in his 6 starts in what is his rookie season.  He has also allowed a homer in each of his starts including 2 homers in 3 of the 6 outings.  Of course the Indians overall struggles and Morgan's struggles are a big reason Houston is a big money line favorite in this match-up.  The value can be had on the run line here with -1.5 on the Astros available at about a -120 range as of early morning Wednesday.  Houston holds big edges here in terms of team factors as well as starting pitching.  The Astros Lance McCullers is 7-2 with a 2.80 ERA this season and has been a model of consistency with 2 or fewer earned runs allowed in all but 3 of his 15 starts on the year and in 2 of those 3 outliers he only allowed 3 earned runs in each.  McCullers has 26 strikeouts in 17 and 1 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts.  While Cleveland has only 6 wins the last 20 games, the Astros have only 5 losses last 15 games!  Two teams going opposite directions in recent weeks and Houston is going for its 7th straight win over Cleveland in 2021.  32 of the Indians 45 losses have been by 2+ runs this season.  46 of the Astros 58 wins have been by 2+ runs this season.  This games has blowout potential written all over it and our math model reflects a comfortable win for the home team here. Morgan again gets hit hard while McCullers season-long domination continues.  We’ll back the Houston Astros on the run line Wednesday evening.

#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Baltimore, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Orioles are off of back to back wins but that had a lot to do with playing one of the worst teams in the American League. After facing Kansas City, now the Orioles are facing one of the majors' best teams in Tampa Bay. Prior to the back to back wins, the Orioles had lost 46 of 59 games. It has been another very rough season for Baltimore and now they face the Rays at Tampa Bay where the home team has taken 12 of the last 15 meetings. As for all the meetings this season, the Rays are a perfect 6-0 and 5 of the 6 wins were by a multi-run margin. The Orioles are starting Spenser Watkins and the rookie hurler has as many walks as strikeouts in his 2 starts this season. He has managed to escape major damage but now makes his first ever road start. Watkins faces a Rays team that has won 35 of 54 games and 43 of their 55 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. Ryan Yarbrough has an edge on the hill as the Rays are 4-1 in his 5 career starts against the Orioles. He compiled a 3.07 ERA in those starts and enters this start with a 2.81 ERA over his last 3 starts so he is in good current form. The Rays, overall, have won 8 of last 10 games and have scored 6.5 runs a game in the 8 victories! Blowout could be likely here because the Orioles have a knack for losing big. 48 of Baltimore’s 62 losses, including 15 of last 17, have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge (Tampa Bay 1st in AL and Baltimore 2nd to last in AL) as well, we’ll back the Tampa Bay Rays on the run line early Monday evening.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Saturday, 9:05 PM ET - I have to admit how hilarious the national media is and how they are so quick to overreact to the most recent or current events. After winning Games 1 and 2 of the series the pundits couldn’t stop praising the Suns and anointing them as the next NBA Champion. Those same “experts” are now saying the Bucks are two games away from winning the Finals. This series is 2-2 with the home team winning all four games and we are betting that trend continues here. The Suns were dominating at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and the 3rd best average margin of victory at +8.9PPG. Phoenix is 8-2 SU at home in the playoffs with an average differential of +9PPG. Phoenix is 17-5 AT their last 22 home games versus quality teams or teams with a winning record. The Suns have also covered 10 of their last fourteen games as a favorite. Phoenix is 9-2 SU at home when coming off a loss and we predict a bounce back here by the home team.

#929 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Seattle Mariners +1.5 runs (-130) over Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 9:38 PM ET - The Mariners lost to the Angels Sunday in their final game before the all star break.  This snapped a stretch of 3 straight wins for Seattle over LA plus a run of 5-2 last 7 meetings.  One of those was a 1-run loss so having the Mariners at +1.5 runs in those 7 meetings would have netted one a tidy 6-1 record.  This spot Friday looks like a great one for that run to be extended.  Though an upset win is certainly possible here, having the extra 1.5 runs could prove to be a key.  3 of the Angels 5 most recent victories, prior to Sunday's big 7-1 win, had been by a 1-run margin.  Chis Flexen continues to be a pleasant surprise on the mound for the Mariners.  Despite not being a strikeout pitcher, Flexen continues to successfully pitch to contact and induce outs by avoiding hard contact.  Seattle is 12-4 in Flexen's starts this season and he has an 8-3 record!  In his past 5 starts he has a 1.38 ERA and allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of the 5 starts.  Flexen has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his last 6 starts.  Andrew Heaney starts for the Angels in this one.  The southpaw allowed 3 homers at Seattle earlier this season.  Heaney enters this start having surrendered 5 long balls in his last 3 outings and has a 9.42 ERA during this stretch.  This is a strikeout mismatch as Heaney has been piling up strikeouts lately while Flexen is not.  However, it is crystal clear who has been getting the better results and that continues here.  Also, Trout still out for the Angels and even if Rendon and Upton come back for this game it would be hard to say either is 100% healthy at this point as each were out for for a while prior to the all star break.  Bet the Seattle Mariners +1.5 runs on the run line.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Montreal Canadiens Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET - The Lightning are on a 13-7 run in the playoffs but 4 of the 13 wins were by just a single goal. That means laying 1.5 goals with Tampa Bay in each of those games would have netted only a 9-11 record. The Canadiens are on a 12-5 run and 1 of the 5 losses was in overtime. That means at +1.5 goals in the last 17 games, Montreal would have a 13-4 record. That is why we're laying the price to have the benefit of having the +1.5 goals on the puck line. While Montreal certainly has a shot at the outright upset here, it is still tough to play against a Cup-winning TB team on their home ice with a chance to hoist the Stanley Cup tonight. However, if the Canadiens do fall short, we are expecting this to be a very close game likely decided by a 1-goal margin. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying about a -140 price in doing so) with road underdog Montreal is the value play here as we expect a huge game from the road team in this one! Note that goalie Carey Price was fantastic in the crease in Game 4 to help the Canadiens fight off elimination and also give them momentum heading into this must win game.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Thurs July 1st 8:30 PM ET - The line on this game obviously tells us who Vegas wants everyone to bet and that’s the underdog Hawks, but we won’t bite. Milwaukee loses 2-time MVP Giannis to a knee injury in the last game, yet the Bucks are still favored at home. We’ve seen this time and time again and most recently in the last game of this series, when a team loses a Super Star, a role player steps up. In Game 4 the Hawks were without Trae Young and Lou Williams stepped up for the injured star with 21-points on 7 of 9 shooting along with dishing out 8-assists. The Bucks still have capable weapons in Jrue Holliday and Khris Middleton and in this situation we expect one of them to step up in the absence of Giannis and have a big game. The Bucks got off to a slow start again in Game 4 but expect them to play much better at home were they were 26-10 SU during the regular season with a +7.7PPG differential. In the playoffs the Bucks have the 4th best overall average point differential at +5.5PPG and they have won 12 of 18 home games this season when coming off a loss. The contrarian bet here is to take the Bucks.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +1 over LA Clippers Game 6 Wednesday - The Clippers got a much-needed win at home in Game 5 but it came at a herculean price as starters logged exhausting minutes which makes them a “play against” here. Paul George put up a huge 41-point night, but the minutes are starting to add up. George has played more minutes than anyone in the post season and it’s not even close. Marcus Morris Sr. had a great game last time out but at times looked like he could barely job back defensively. The Clippers as a whole shot 55% which is well above their season average of 48.2%. As a team the Suns shot 45% in the last game after shooting just 39% and 36% in the previous two games. Phoenix opened this series with 55% and 50% games. Phoenix is 18-7 SU off a loss this season and had the 8th best average road +/- in the NBA at +2.6PPG. Granted, the Clippers were outstanding at home this season but that was with Leonard in the lineup for a majority of those games. Our numbers say Phoenix is the best team in the West and they’ll get this road win in Game 6.

#922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Kansas City, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals free fall continued with another loss last night as they blew a 5-1 lead and lost 6-5. With that loss, the Royals have now won just 17 of their last 52 games and they’ve lost 18 of 22 games overall including 6 straight! Kansas City sends Brad Keller to the mound and we expect his recent struggles to resume. Keller is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, Keller has averaged only 4 and 2 / 3 innings per start on the season. That should give the Royals poor bullpen plenty of work which isn’t a good thing. The Kansas City relievers have combined for a 5.67 ERA the last 30 days and that ranks 28th out of 30 teams in MLB! Meanwhile the Red Sox will start Nick Pivetta and Boston is 6-2 on the season in his home starts! Pivetta's most recent outing was on the road and the Red Sox were handed a tough 1-0 loss as he was fantastic on the mound with 8 strikeouts and holding the Rays scoreless (and hitless!) for his 6 and 2 / 3 innings! The Red Sox have won 4 straight games and 16 of their last 24 games overall. Also, 35 of their 48 wins this season were by at least 2 runs. Also, 11 of Kansas City’s last 15 losses, prior to last night's 6-5 loss, had come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge (Boston 4th in AL with 3.55 ERA) as well, we’ll back the Boston Red Sox on the run line Tuesday evening.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -5 over LA Clippers, Game 5 Monday - We are betting this series ends tonight and the Suns advance to the NBA Finals. The Clippers don’t have enough weapons without Leonard and its obvious to see they are wearing down. Neither team shot well in the last game but the Suns have more options than the Clippers do and we expect them to bounce back at home with a much better shooting night. L.A. has some solid numbers when playing off a loss this season but that was with Kawhi in the lineup. Phoenix is 7-1 ATS when coming off a win and have won 10 of their last eleven games overall. 5 of the Suns six home wins in the playoffs have all come by more than today’s spread and our models predict a double-digit win here.

ASA NHL PLAY ON 6* Montreal Canadiens Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - The Lightning are 12-6 in the playoffs but 5 of the dozen wins were by just a single goal. That means laying 1.5 goals with Tampa Bay in each game of this post-season would have netted only a 7-11 record. The Canadiens are on an 11-2 run and 1 of the 2 losses was in overtime. That means at +1.5 goals in the last 13 games, Montreal would have a 12-1 record. That is why we're reducing our star rating on this play and laying the price to have the benefit of having the +1.5 goals on the puck line. While Montreal certainly has a shot at the outright upset here, it is still tough to play against a Cup-winning TB team on their home ice. However, if the Canadiens do fall short, we are expecting this to be a very close game likely decided by a 1-goal margin. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying about a -160 price in doing so) with road underdog Montreal is the value play here as we expect a huge game from the road team in this one and goalie Carey Price has been fantastic in the crease throughout this post-season.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Sunday 8:35 PM ET - We are not going to overreact to the Bucks blowout win in Game 2 and get suckered into betting a bad number in Game 3. The Bucks were just favored by 8-points at home in a must win situation and are now laying 4.5-points on the road? The natural swing here should have this game as a pick’em. Not only that, but the line on this game also opened with Milwaukee as a 5-point favorite and a large volume of tickets have come in on the Bucks yet the line dropped. The Bucks have lost three road playoff games this postseason and the Hawks have won 14 of their last sixteen at home, which included a win over this Bucks team in the regular season. Atlanta doesn’t have great year long statistics as they suffered from a slow start, yet they still have the 8th best home court point differential at +6.3PPG. In the end this comes down to grabbing the extra value with Atlanta at home.

#912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 -115 on Run Line over Arizona, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The DBacks snapped their free fall with a rare win last night. Even with that victory, they have now won just 7 of their last 50 games and they’ve lost 20 of 22 games overall! Arizona sends Zac Gallen to the mound and we expect his recent road struggles to resume. He is off a solid home outing but gave up 4 earned runs in less than 3 innings in his last road outing. Also, Gallen has averaged only 4 and 2 / 3 innings per start on the season. That should give the DBacks poor bullpen plenty of work which isn’t a good thing. The Arizona relievers have allowed 333 hits and 48 homers this season, both near the very top in MLB and those, of course, are categories teams do not want to be leaders in! Meanwhile the Padres will start Yu Darvish who is 7-2 on the season and San Diego is 12-3 in his starts this season! Darvish has an ERA of just 2.50 in his 15 starts this season! The Padres had won 8 straight games prior to last night's ugly loss and 36 of their 46 wins this season were by at least 2 runs. Also, 17 of Arizona’s last 23 losses have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge (Padres 2nd in MLB with 2.85 ERA) as well, we’ll back the San Diego Padres on the run line Sunday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 2 8:35 PM ET Friday - This is basically the elimination game of this series as the Bucks can’t afford to go down 0-2 to start the Eastern Conference finals. I’ve said it before and will say it again, Coach Budenholzer for Milwaukee needs to be fired ASAP as his team continually underperforms despite the talent advantage. Even with Bud we like the Bucks to get this home win by a substantial margin. After watching film, the Bucks will make adjustments and switch screens involving Trae Young and not allow him to get free for easy floaters in the lane (48-points on 17 of 34 shooting in Game 1). Young was a big reason why the Hawks shot 49% for the game which will be tough to duplicate against the Bucks 5th best field goal percentage defense. Milwaukee had an off-shooting night by hitting just 8 of 36 three-pointers which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 38.9% (5th best in NBA). We are betting Khris Middleton will have a much better shooting night than his 0-9 performance in the opener. Milwaukee is 31-11 SU at home this season with a +/- of +8.1PPG. The bet is the Bucks to bounce back here with a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 1 Wednesday 8:35 PM ET - We will start by saying this, the Hawks are playing outstanding right now and head coach Nate McMillan has guided this team to a level of play many didn’t think possible. But the situation warrants a bet on the Bucks who are more rested, been here before and have the two best players on the floor in Giannis and Middleton. Trae Young has been great but he’s not on that level yet and also is a little banged up with a bad shoulder. The Hawks are also concerned with Bogdanovic who played just 21 minutes and scored 4-points in their Game 7 win over Philly. Atlanta is coming off two very physically demanding series against the Knicks and 76ers and will suffer a letdown here. Milwaukee just beat the best team in the East in Brooklyn and have a roster than can win it all this season. The Bucks have the best offense in the NBA and currently the #1 ranked defensive efficiency number in the playoffs allowing just 1.032-points per possession. We know the Bucks Achilles-heel is their 3-point defense which ranks near the bottom of the NBA, but the Hawks shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc which ranks them 12th. Milwaukee was 26-10 SU at home this season with the 5th best average point differential of +7.7PPG and they’ve gone 5-0 at home in the playoffs at +13PPG. The future games of this series may be much closer but we expect a blowout in Game 1 by the Bucks

#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 on Run Line over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - After a big win at Minnesota way back on May 1st, the Royals sat at 16-9 on the season. Kansas City has since gone 16-29 in 45 games! The Yankees are a huge money line home favorite here as a result of that plus having Gerrit Cole on the mound but we can get some strong line value here by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line with New York. Cole is 8-3 with a 2.31 ERA this season. Amazingly, Cole has piled up 117 strikeouts in his first 14 starts this season! He will dominate here as the Royals have averaged only 2.5 runs last 12 losses. A loss is likely here as Brady Singer gets the start for Kansas City and will be no match for Cole. Singer went 2-4 with a 4.32 ERA in night starts last season and is 1-2 with a 5.20 ERA and .292 BAA in evening outings this season. Kansas City is 1-5 in Singer's road starts this season and he has a 5.60 ERA in those outings. Singer is dealing with shoulder tightness and may not work deep here and the Royals bullpen has a 4.84 ERA last 30 days to rank among the worst in the majors. New York's bullpen has a 3.06 ERA to rank among the best in the majors. Both the Yankees and Royals were off yesterday and New York enters this game having won 5 of last 6 games and 11 of 17 wins since mid-May were by at least 2 runs. Also, the Royals are off a rare win as KC had lost 12 of 14 before tasting victory on Sunday. 7 of Kansas City’s last 10 losses have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge as well, we’ll back the New York Yankees on the run line Tuesday evening.

#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on Run Line over Arizona, Saturday at 10:10 PM ET - The DBacks continue their free fall with another loss last night.  They have now won just 5 of their last 43 games and they’ve lost 15 straight games overall!  Arizona sends Matt Peacock to the mound and we expect his recent struggles to continue.  He is 0-3 with a 7.15 ERA this month and has averaged less than 4 innings per start in June.  That should give the DBacks poor bullpen plenty of work which isn’t a good thing.  The Arizona relievers have allowed 300 hits and 43 homers this season, both near the very top in MLB and those, of course, are categories teams do not want to be leaders in!  Meanwhile the Dodgers will start Walker Buehler who is 6-0 on the season and undefeated in his last 23 regular season starts!  Buehler has an ERA of just 2.38 in his 13 starts this season!  The Dodgers have won all 5 games vs the Diamondbacks this season by a combined score of 22-6.  Going back further, the DBacks have won just 10 of last 34 meetings with the Dodgers.  LA has won 8 of last 10 games and 7 of the 8 wins were by at least 2 runs.  Also, 14 of Arizona’s last 18 losses have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge as well, we’ll back the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line Saturday night. 

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -7 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET – Game 5 Wednesday - The 76ers find themselves in a battle for the East from an unexpected round two opponent in the Hawks but tonight they flex their muscle in a convincing home win. In Game 4 the 76ers lost by just 3-points despite Joel Embiid going 4 for 20 from the field and 0-12 in the second half. So despite a horrible showing by Embiid the Sixers still had a chance to steal a road win in Atlanta. Philly is 16-9 SU off a loss this season and 12-2 SU, 11-2-1 ATS at home off a beat. Philadelphia has a +8.9 average point differential at home this season which is the second-best number in the NBA. When playing at home and coming off a loss the 76ers had an average winning margin of +14PPG in their last nine games in that situation during the regular season. The bet here is Philly in a double-digit home win.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - This number is the second highest the Nets have been as a dog this season at home and even without Kyrie and Harden they are the bet here. KD can obviously carry a team himself and back at home we expect the reserves to step up. Let’s not forget Joe Harris was bordering an All-Star level of play before the Super Star additions and he’s more than capable of filling it up from beyond the Arc. Let’s face it, Brooklyn 33-8 SU at home this season and a majority of those wins came without one of the Big 3 playing. The Nets were 10-3 SU at home off a loss this season and they’ll find a way to keep this one close throughout.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +5 over LA Clippers, Game 4 Monday 10 PM ET - Before the playoffs started, we felt the Jazz were the best team in the West and our opinion hasn’t changed even though the Suns look outstanding. Utah had the most wins during the regular season at 52 and are 6-2 SU in the playoffs. Utah had a +9.2PPG differential (1st) overall and the best margin of victory on the road too at +5.3PPG. The Jazz ranked top seven in both road offensive and defensive efficiency. The Clippers are obviously a good team with star power in George and Leonard, but they haven’t been unbeatable at home with three losses in the opening round to Dallas. In Game 3 the Clippers shot well above their season averages at 56% overall and 53% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly higher than their season averages of 48% and 41%. Not to mention the Jazz are the 2nd best field goal percentage defense in the NBA. The Clippers have just one cover in their last nine games when coming off a double-digit win while the Jazz are 16-5 SU off a loss, 8-4 on the road. Grab the points and the underdog here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Islanders Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET - This is a rematch of a playoff series last year and, in that one, New York was tired in Game One and it showed.  The Islanders got blasted in that first game 8 to 2 but they were short on rest and off a grueling 7-game series with Philly.  This season's set-up is much different and the Islanders are ready to go from the opening drop of the puck in this one.  That being said, a ton of line value here in grabbing the +1.5 goals with the Islanders.  New York has played 12 games in this post-season and only 1 of them was a loss by more than 1-goal margin!  Tampa Bay has played 11 games in the post-season less than half of those games were Lightning wins by more than a 1-goal margin.  The road team won each of the last 3 games between these teams in last year's playoffs.  Also, the only loss for the Islanders as the designated road team in that bubble format that was by more than 1 goal was the game one loss which was a very tricky scheduling situation for them.  Tough defensive-minded team in the Islanders and Tampa Bay will struggle just to win this game let alone win by any kind of margin.  While New York certainly has a shot at the outright upset here, it is still tough to play against a Cup-winning TB team on their home ice.  However, if the Islanders do fall short, we are expecting this to be a very close game likely decided by a 1-goal margin.  Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying about a -150 price in doing so) with road underdog NY Islanders is the value play here as we expect a huge game from the road team in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +4.5 over LA Clippers, Game 3 Saturday 8:25PM ET Yes, we are going to ignore the zig-zag theory here and bet the overall better team in the Jazz. Utah was the best team in the NBA all season long and have flown under the radar because of a late season injury to Donovan Mitchell but they are clearly in top form now. Speaking of Mitchell, the Clippers have no answer for him right now as he’s put up 45 and 37-points in the first two games of this series. The Clippers were built for a Championship, but they are missing a piece or two and the dynamic duo of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard aren’t enough. Utah is 35-6 SU on the road this season and had the best road point differential in the league at +5.3PPG, the 7th best offensive efficiency and the 6th best defensive efficiency numbers when away from home. Examining the previous meetings this season we see the Jazz have won and covered 4 of five and the lone loss was by 4-points. Let’s not forget the Clippers lost three home games in the last round to the Mavericks so they are not unbeatable on their home floor. Back the better team and the grab the points.

#912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Brewers are a huge money line favorite here with good reason.  The Pirates have lost 4 straight games and 7 of 10.  On the road this season Pittsburgh is 10-19 and the Bucs have gone just 11-23 against teams with a winning record.  Of course this is part of the reason that Milwaukee is such a big favorite here and note too that the Brewers have won 11 of 13 games.  The value here is on the run line because of course we are not going to suggest laying the massive money line price here.  By laying the 1.5 runs on the Brewers, we get their price range down into the -135 area and 25 of Milwaukee's 35 wins this season have come by 2+ runs.  Also, an incredible 32 of the Pirates 38 losses have been by a multiple-run margin.  Pittsburgh also is just 7-19 in divisional games.  The Pirates start Chase DeJong here and he gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings and allowed 3 homers in his most recent start and this was against the Marlins.  He is inexperienced at the MLB level.  The Brewers start Brandon Woodruff and he is off a rare subpar outing and will bounce back here as he has been phenomenal this season.  Woodruff has a 1.42 ERA on the season with a 0.74 WHIP and Milwaukee is 5-1 in his home starts.  Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this one.  As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line.  Blowout alert!  Bet the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs on the run line.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +1.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, Game 3 Friday 7:35 PM ET - The home crowd will be rocking in Atlanta tonight when the Hawks look to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Atlanta has been fantastic since head coach Nate McMillan took over with a 27-11 SU record and have improved in all areas of their game. The Hawks were 25-11 SU at home during the regular season with the 8th best average margin of victory at home of +6.3PPG. Atlanta has the 6th best offensive efficiency rating at home and the 13th best defensive efficiency. The 76ers defensive efficiency numbers have been good at home and on the road where they rank 3rd overall but offensively their road efficiency is 1.106-points per possession which ranks 19th. We don’t expect Seth Curry and Shake Milton having incredible shooting nights by coming to go 9 of 11 from beyond the 3-point line as they did at home in Game 2. The Hawks have covered 6 straight at home against the Sixers and we are betting it’s 7 in a row after tonight. 

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -5.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30 PM ET - The Suns got a solid 17-point win in the opener and were the much better team on both ends of the floor. The Nuggets may have the best player on the floor in MVP Jokic, but the Suns depth and balance is the difference. Phoenix had four players score 20+ points in Game 1 with the team shooting over 54% from the field and 38% from beyond the Arc. Without Jamal Murray the Nuggets lack their best playmaker off the bounce and forces Denver to rely too heavily on Jokic. The longer, more athletic Ayton held Jokic to 22-points in the opener and defensively could be the difference in this series. Phoenix has covered 4 of their last five as a favorite and had the 4th best average home point differential in the league this season of +8.9PPG. The Nuggets second best scorer Porter Jr is listed as questionable tonight and not 100% which only magnifies Denver’s lack of scoring here. Lay the points in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - Let’s not forget the 76ers were the best team in the East all season long and have a MVP level player in Joel Embiid and a Hall of Fame coach in Doc Rivers. Granted, Embiid isn’t 100% but he wasn’t in Game 1 either and he put up 39-points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists. Philadelphia is going to bounce back here against a young Atlanta team that will let down after their Game 1 win. Both teams shot extremely well in the opener, but the difference was the Hawks 20 made 3-pointers to the 76ers 10. Those numbers are startling considering both teams are top 10 in 3-point percentage defense and rank 11th and 12th in 3-point shooting offensively. The 76ers are 6th in points allowed per game this season and 4th in overall field goal percentage defense. Philadelphia was 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency this season while the Hawks were 21st. Atlanta does hold a slight edge offensively with the 8th best offense efficiency rating, but Philly is 13th. The Hawks were just +2-point dogs at New York which makes tonight’s line a bargain with a much better Sixers team that is off a loss. These teams met in late April in Philly with the 76ers dominating in a 44-point (no Trae Young) and 22-point (w/Trae Young) home wins. The 76ers had the second-best home point differential in the NBA this season at +8.9PPG and were 29-7 SU on their home court this season. Philly was 14-9-1 ATS off a loss this season at 10-2-1 ATS at home off a beat. In their last eleven home games when coming off a loss the 76ers are 10-1 SU with an average margin of victory of 13PPG. This game has all the makings of a pointspread blowout.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over New York Islanders, Monday at 6:35 PM ET - Though Saturday's game got away from them late in the game, the Bruins have looked like the better team in this match-up this season including this playoff series too.  Boston, prior to Game 4, had continued to dominate shots on goal statistically over the prior 6 meetings between these teams.  Rather than lay a -185 price on the money line here, the best value is with the puck line which can get you a plus money return in the +150 range.  Though Boston's most recent win was by just a single goal, 4 of the Bruins 5 most recent wins over the Islanders have been by, not only a multiple-goal margin, a margin of 3 or more goals!  The odds of a Bruins win are good here given the money line and you can see why the odds of that win coming by a multi-goal margin are also quite high.  The Bruins can take a 3-2 lead in this series by defending home ice and getting a win in this one, and per our computer math model, Boston is forecast to do just that in convincing fashion.  Look for the Bruins to go up 3-2 in this series.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting big plus money in doing so) with home favorite Boston is the value play here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over New York Islanders, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - The Bruins have looked like the better team in this match-up.  Boston continues to dominate shots on goal statistically over the last 6 meetings between these teams.  Rather than lay a -150 price on the road here on the money line, the best value appears to be with the puck line which can get you a plus money return in the +190 range.  Though Boston's most recent win was by just a single goal, 4 of the Bruins 5 most recent wins over the Islanders have been by, not only a multiple-goal margin, a margin of 3 or more goals!  The odds of a Bruins win are good here given the money line and you can see why the odds of that win coming by a multi-goal margin are also quite high.  The Bruins can put a stranglehold on this series with a win in this one, and per our computer math model, Boston is forecast to do just that here in convincing fashion.  Look for the Bruins to go up 3-1 in this series.  Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting big plus money in doing so) with road favorite Boston is the huge value play here.

#916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs (-115) over Detroit Tigers, Saturday at 2:10 PM ET - The White Sox got the win yesterday and should do the same here but this time by a multiple-run margin.  Detroit has now lost 19 of 29 road games this season including 5 of the last 6.  Chicago is 22-9 at home this season and also 13-3 this season against left-handed starters.  The White Sox lead the majors when facing southpaws with a .358 on base percentage and a .478 slugging percentage and the Sox .278 batting average against left-handed pitching is 2nd only to the Astros out of all 30 MLB teams.  The Tigers are starting Tarik Skubal here.  Detroit is 2-7 in his starts this season.  Skubal is off of a better outing in his most recent start but that was at home and he has struggled on the road in each of his first two seasons in the majors.  Last year Skubal went 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA in his 6 away games - 5 starts.  This season Skubal is 1-3 with a 7.46 ERA in his 4 starts away from home thus far.  That said, a road start against a team known for crushing lefties is unlikely to serve him well.  The White Sox starter in this one is Lucas Giolito.  He is very consistent and has held opponents to a batting average of .205, .184, .202 in the 2019, 2020, 2021 seasons.  In the last 162 game regular season (2019), Giolito went 7-3 with a 2.16 ERA and .163 BAA in day game outings.  Prior to yesterday's high-scoring loss, Detroit had been held to 3 or less runs in 6 of its last 9 games.  The White Sox have won 9 of last 12 games and scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in the 9 victories.  The average score of those games was 5.8 to 2.9 and this should be another big win as well as Detroit drops to 1-6 last 7 road games.  Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this one.  As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line.  Blowout alert!  Bet the Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs on the run line.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -2.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9 PM ET - This has been a strange series with the road team winning all five matchups. The Clippers are facing elimination here and will put forth a monster effort to extend this series. In Game 5 Luke Doncic followed up a horrible outing in Game 4 with a huge game for the Mavericks with 42 points and 14 assists. Despite Luka playing a near flawless game the Clippers still had a chance to win that game late. Odds are he can’t have another game as good as that against one of the better defensive teams in the league (Clippers rank 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.113PPP). Let’s not forget the Mavs were 17th in the league in average point differential at +0.3PPG while the Clippers had the second best road differential at +4.3PPG. L.A. is 8-2 ATS the last ten meetings in Dallas and are 19-9 SU off a loss this season. The Clippers are 10-4 SU (9-5 ATS) when playing on the road and off a loss. Obviously a very big game for both teams but Kawhi and Paul George will lift the Clippers to a win and cover.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs (+115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 7:40 PM ET - Amazingly, a month ago on May 2nd, the Diamondbacks were 15-13 so they had a slight winning record on the season.  This team has since lost 24 of 29 games!  On the year, Arizona is 12-28 in night games, 3-11 versus left-handed starters, 9-21 in road games, and 4-20 in games against teams with a winning record.  The Brewers should dominate this one.  Arizona is starting Jon Duplantier.  The Diamondbacks young lefty has pitched in 16 MLB games (4 starts) and has a 4.79 ERA with opponents hitting .288 against him and he has a 1.60 WHIP.  Duplantier will unlikely be able to match the Brewers Brett Anderson.  The Diamondbacks have not faced Anderson in 6 years so that is a big edge for him.  Also, Arizona is hitting .208 in road games this season which is one of the worst marks in the majors.  Anderson went 11-5 with a 3.09 ERA in night games in 2019 and in 2020 he went 4-2 with a 3.60 ERA in evening action.  He has a 3.38 ERA in home games this season.  The Brewers were off yesterday after losing Tuesday's game.  Milwaukee was on an 8-2 run prior to that defeat and should bounce right back here against one of the coldest teams in the majors right now.  Per our computer math model a home blowout is quite likely in this one.  As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line.  Blowout alert!  Bet the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs on the run line.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Vegas Golden Knights Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Colorado Avalanche, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET - Vegas was tired in Game One and it showed.  They played goalie Robin Lehner after a long layoff and his rust showed.  The point is that one should not put too much weight into the 7-1 shellacking that the Golden Knights suffered in Game One.  It was a unique situation in more ways than one given the goalie situation and the scheduling situation.  The latter was particularly beneficial to the Avalanche as they were well rested and took advantage of that.  Marc Andre Fleury has been playing very well and had played the entire series versus Minnesota in the first round and he will be back between the pipes tonight for Vegas.  While Colorado is a very strong team and it is tough to play against them the Golden Knights are really undervalued here.  They had played a grueling 7-game series entering Game One of this series and it showed.  But now they have had a little chance to hit the reset button after getting beat badly in the opener of this series.  While Vegas certainly has a shot at the outright upset here, it is still tough to play against a powerful Colorado team on their home ice.  However, if the Golden Knights do fall short, we are expecting this to be a very close game likely decided by a 1-goal margin.  Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying about a -150 price in doing so) with road underdog Vegas is the value play here as we expect a huge response from the road team in this one. 

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +5 over Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - It’s clear LeBron can’t carry a team to a championship by himself anymore which is why he recruited Anthony Davis to come to Los Angeles in the first place but he’s got enough help to keep this critical game 5 close. After a loss in game 1 the Lakers benefited from some favorable calls and went to the free throw line 31 times on the road which is abnormal. All four games have been very low scoring which makes the points even more attractive. Yes, the Lakers are without AD but they’ve gone from being a 2-point road favorite in Game 2 to being a 5-point dog here? That’s too much of an adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Lakers have been profitable off a loss with a 17-13-1 ATS record this season and a majority of those covers came without key players in the lineup. Los Angeles has covered 4 in a row when off a loss. Phoenix has their own injury concerns and Chris Paul is clearly not 100% with a shoulder injury. The Lakers improve on their 5-2 ATS record in Phoenix with a close game tonight.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Minnesota Twins -1.5 runs (-110) over Baltimore Orioles, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - A lot working in our favor with this one.  Minnesota has beaten Baltimore 16 straight times!  Additionally, the Orioles enter this game on a current 14-game losing streak!  The Twins 3-2 win in extra innings yesterday was a rare 1-run loss for Baltimore as 11 of the 13 that preceded it all came by a margin of 2 or more runs.  It has been a dreadful run for the Orioles and we look for the Twins to beat them for a 17th straight time in this one.  Though Minnesota is down a couple of players for this one, those include the left-handed bats of Arraez and Kepler who do not hit lefties well anyway.  They would have been unlikely to excel against left-hander Bruce Zimmerman anyway.  That said, the rest of the Twins lineup is likely to pound the southpaw.  He has been hit hard in all but one of his last 8 starts.  Overall on the season Zimmerman is getting hit at a .300 clip in home games and a .355 clip in night games!  He's facing a Twins team that has a slugging percentage ranking in the top ten in the majors against southpaw pitching and, again, neither Arraez or Kepler helped that number.  Additionally, the Twins start a red hot Michael Pineda here.  He has a 2.62 ERA and 0.99 WHIP on the season!  To put that in proper perspective, Zimmerman has a 5.52 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his home starts this season.  Also, the Orioles are an ugly 1-7 in Zimmerman's starts this season.  That drops to 1-8 after this one as Baltimore's overall struggles (plus losing streak to the Twins) continue here.  Per our computer math model a road rout is quite likely in this one.  As you can see above, all the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line.  Blowout alert!  Bet the Minnesota Twins -1.5 runs on the run line.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -8 over Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - There has been an adjustment by the oddsmakers here but we don’t feel it’s enough and we’re betting the 76ers end this series today with a resounding win. After a close game (7-point Philly win) in Game 1 the Sixers have crushed the Wizards in two straight games by 25 and 29-points respectively. Washington had the 3rd highest scoring average (116PPG) in the NBA on the season, but the stifling Philly defense has held them to 95 and 103 points in the previous two games. Washington is just 10 of 57 from beyond the arc in Games 2 & 3. The Wiz have no answer for Joel Embiid who is 31 of 46 from the field in the three games thus far. Washington is the worst overall efficiency team in the playoffs and the Sixers have exposed their lack of depth beyond Westbrook and Beal. Teams that lead a playoff series 3-0 have won 60% of the time and we can’t see a Washington team that didn’t enjoy much of a home court advantage (19th in home point differential) this season to make this a contest. Washington just 9-14 SU at home off a loss. Lay it with Philly.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -7.5 over Boston Celtics, 7 PM ET - We are betting the Celtics won’t have the offensive explosion in this game that they had in the previous one. After scoring 93 and 108 points in the first two games of this series on 37% and 42% shooting, the Celtics exploded for 125 in Game 3. Boston shot 51% for the game and 41% from beyond the arc which are well above their season averages. Jayson Tatum will have a tough time duplicating his 50-point performance as the Nets will make adjustments here to limit his offensive production. Boston could also be without their second best offensive option with Kemba Walker who is listed as questionable, but we are assuming he plays. After a pair of double-digit wins in the first two games we expect the Nets to rebound off that embarrassing loss with a big win here. The Nets were 15-9 SU off a loss this season and have covered 7 of their last eight games overall. Boston is just 1-6 ATS their last seven games when coming off a win. Back the elite team here off a loss.