#412 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -6.5 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET - After last week’s win, the Bills have now won 9 straight NFL preseason games which is the 2nd best current streak behind the Ravens 21 straight games. It’s obvious that head coach Sean McDermott puts an emphasis on winning preseason games. He has stated he will play his starters “a healthy amount” this week including QB Josh Allen. Last week in their 27-24 win over Indianapolis, McDermott sat most of his starters and the Bills had 5 turnovers and still pulled out a win. They outgained the Colts, who played more of their starters including starting QB Matt Ryan, by 1.6 yards per play. Denver will not play their starters in this game according to new head coach Nathaniel Hackett who says he “isn’t a fan of the preseason”. Josh Johnson will start at QB followed by Brett Rypien for Denver who beat Dallas 17-7 last week but outgained the Cowboys by only 8 yards. We have one of the best teams in the NFL playing their starters extensively here vs a bunch of back ups for Denver. Laying under a TD is a solid situation. Take Buffalo.

#911 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are coming off a rare loss (in extra innings) last night and we like them to bounce back tonight. LA has been on a fantastic run winning 24 of their last 30 games and they’ve only lost back to back games twice since mid June. They have the 2nd best batting average in MLB since the All Star Break (3rd best on the season) and they’ve scored 156 runs during that stretch which is #1 in baseball, a full 27 runs more than Atlanta who has the 2nd most in that time. They were a bit unlucky last night as they outhit the Brewers 8-5 but lost 5-4 in 11 innings. Milwaukee was very fortunate to score 5 runs on only 5 hits as their bats continue to struggle. The Brewers have hit just .188 as a team over their last 10 games while barely averaging 3 RPG. Because they don’t hit for a high average, Milwaukee must hit HR’s to generate scoring and they are facing Dodger pitcher Gonsolin tonight who has allowed just 11 HR’s the entire season in 116 innings of work. He is 14-1 on the year with a WHIP of just 0.89 which is the 3rd best among starters in MLB. Gonsolin has allowed just 29 ER’s in 21 starts this season and Milwaukee doesn’t have a single player on their team that has more than 2 plate appearances life time vs him. LA has the 3rd best bullpen ERA when he exits so we look for Milwaukee to continue their offensive struggles. Lauer pitches for the Brewers and his numbers are solid with a 3.64 ERA, however his xFIP and xERA are both north of 4.00. Very few have been able to slow down this Dodgers offense averaging over 6 RPG since the break and we don’t expect Lauer to keep them in check today. LA has 80 wins on the season and amazingly 72 of those have come by at least 2 runs. Since the All Star Break they have 20 wins and all but 1 of came by 2 or more runs. Dodgers bounce back today and cover the -1.5 run line.

#901 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Phillies were on a roll winning 12 of 13 games before they ran into the red hot Mets over the weekend and lost 2 of 3. Their offense came to a screeching halt vs the Mets, however they faced 3 top of the line starting pitchers in Scherzer (1.93 ERA), DeGrom (1.62 ERA), and Bassitt (3.27 ERA). Prior to their series with the Mets, they had average 5.4 RPG over their previous 16 games. We fully expect the Phillies offense to take off here vs Mike Minor who has been terrible. The left hander has won 1 game this season and his ERA is over 6.00. He had made 7 starts at home this season and the Reds have lost all 7 of those games by an average score of 6.6 to 2.6. All 7 of those losses came by at least 2 runs. Dating back to last season, Minor has allowed a whopping 44 HR’s in 122 innings pitched which is more than 3 per 9 innings. Bad news facing a Phillies offense that averages 1.3 HR’s per 9 innings which is good for 6th in the Majors. On top of that, Cincy has the worst bullpen ERA in MLB so not much help on the back end in this game. Philadelphia’s Syndergaard hasn’t been his dominating self since his Tommy John surgery a few years back but he has still been solid. He’s pitched just 2 games for Philadelphia after being traded from the LA Angels and his ERA on the season is a solid 3.96. He’s facing a Reds line up that has averaged just 2.9 RPG over their last 10 scoring 2 runs or fewer in 7 of those games. We like Philly to win this game by at least 2 runs.

#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - Nice situational spot here for SF with their top starter on the mound. The Giants played in San Diego on Wednesday and had yesterday off after their short trip home. Pittsburgh was playing @ Arizona yesterday and tonight will be playing their 8th consecutive road game in 8 days. The Pirates are 2-5 so far on this road trip that has taken them from the east coast (Baltimore) to the west coast (Arizona and now SF). They are 17 games below .500 away from home with a losing margin of -1.5 runs per game. SF sends lefty Rodon to the mound and he has been fantastic at home this year. His ERA in home games is just 1.76 and he has struck out 73 batters in just 51 innings. That’s a problem for a Pittsburgh offense that has struck out an average of 9.5 per 9 innings ranking them 29th in MLB out of 30 teams. They’ve struck out 365 times this year vs left handers which is by far the worst in the Majors. Pittsburgh also ranks 29th in batting average vs lefties at .219. Rodon faced the Pirates once this season and went 8 innings, allowed 2 hits and 0 runs. Bryse Wilson starts for Pittsburgh and while he’s coming off a solid outing in his most recent start, his season long numbers aren’t great. His ERA is close to 6.00 and opposing hitters have a .298 batting average vs Wilson. He’s allowed 100 baserunners in just 66 innings this season and his HR allowed rate is quite high at 1.65 per 9 innings. Wilson barely averages 4 innings per game with his pitch count often in the 80’s and lower. That means Pittsburgh’s bad bullpen, which has the 4th worst ERA in the league, will get plenty of work here as well. SF has a losing record on the season but they are the only team below .500 that has + run differential so they are better than their record indicates. We like this spot for the Giants and look for a 2+ run win tonight.

#108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Ravens -3.5 over Tennessee Titans, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Lots of things going for the Ravens in this one. First of all it’s quite obvious that head coach John Harbaugh wants to win in the pre-season. His well documented and talked about lifetime record 40-12 SU record in NFLX including 20 straight wins dating back to the 2016 season! They’ve won 12 of those 20 games by double digits and their average margin of victory in their 20 game winning streak is +13 PPG. Not only are the Ravens winning NFLX games at an incredible rate, they are covering to the tune of 25-5 ATS their last 30. Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel hasn’t shown much determination the pre-season winning just 4 of his 11 games since taking over the Titans in 2018. The QB advantage also is heavily in favor of Baltimore in this game. Tennessee starter Tannehill didn’t take a single snap in the pre-season last year and we doubt he will play in this game. That leaves Logan Woodside, who has thrown 3 career passes in the NFL, and rookie Malik Willis to guide this offense. Baltimore will most likely go without starting QB Jackson as well but we like their depth at that position much better. Tyler Huntley is the back up and he threw for over 1,000 yards last year taking over for Jackson when he was injured. After Huntley it will be Brett Hundley who has throw for almost 2,000 yards in his career. Tennessee is banged up in the defensive backfield and had to add 2 safeties to the roster this week so they have enough depth for this game. We’ll lay it Baltimore at home on Thursday night.

#902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Two teams heading in opposite directions here especially on offense. Over the last 10 games the Phillies have 9 wins and average 6.8 RPG. The Marlins have won 3 of their last 10 and they are averaging 2.3 RPG during that stretch. Miami has won just 6 of their last 20 games and 11 of their last 30. They have fallen completely out of the playoff race sitting at 10 games below .500. The Phils are right in the thick of things with a 60-48 record and have their ace on the mound today. Zack Wheeler has been lights out on the mound allowing 2 ER’s or fewer in 15 of his 20 starts this season. At home he’s been even better with an ERA of 1.58 and he’s allowed just 40 total hits in 64 innings of work at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a bad recipe for a Miami offense that has scored the fewest in MLB since the All Star Break at 44. Miami pitcher Garrett has solid overall numbers this season but his ERA was north of 5.00 in each of his last 2 seasons so he’s pitching above his head in our opinion. On the road this season he has an ERA of 4.23 and the Marlins have lost 4 of his last 6 starts away from home. He’s running into a Philadelphia offense that has the 4th best batting averaging since the All Star Break and they have scored the 5th most runs at 85, nearly double what Miami has scored since mid July. Over the last 10 games the Marlins have been outscored by an average of 2.3 – 3.6 (-1.3 RPG differential) while the Phillies have outscored their opponents 6.8 – 3.8 (+3.0 RPG differential). We like the Phillies to keep rolling and pick up an easy win here.

#981 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Oakland A’s, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET - San Fran was just swept by the red hot Dodgers and now they take a huge step down in competition facing Oakland who has the 2nd worst record in MLB and a run differential of -111 on the season. Rodon will start for SF and he’s been outstanding with an ERA of 3.00 but he’s actually pitching better than that number with an xERA of 2.77. He had 2 poor back to back outings coming out of the All Star Break but righted the ship in his most recent start holding the Cubs scoreless in 7 IP allowing just 2 hits. The lefty is facing an Oakland line up that ranks 29th or 30th in RPG, OPS, and batting average and vs southpaws at home this year the A’s are hitting just .189 and averaging 2.6 RPG. The Giants haven’t been hitting well over their last 10 games but nearly half of those games (4) came vs high level LA Dodger starting pitchers. They should look much better today vs Oakland starter Oller who has an ERA of 7.68, a WHIP of 1.73 and has the highest xFIP of any starting pitcher going today. Oller has bounced back and forth between starter and reliever this year. As a starter he’s been really bad allowing 30 ER’s in his 7 starts spanning 30 innings. He’s been his worst at home this year with an ERA of 9.00. Oakland is 17-34 at home this year and they are getting outscored by an average of 2 RPG! While SF does have a losing road record, they actually have a plus run differential away from home. We expect the A’s offense to struggle today while San Fran should be able to break out with a big game. Lay the -1.5 with the Giants.

#957 ASA PLAY ON 8* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Brewers have been red hot since the All Star break with a 7-2 record. The bats have come alive as they are averaging 6.3 RPG since the break scoring at least 6 runs in 6 of those 9 games. No reason to think that slows down here facing a Pirates team with Wilson on the mound. Wilson has started 10 games this season, he has 1 win and his ERA at home is 8.20. In his 20 innings pitched at home this year he has allowed 34 baserunners for a WHIP if 1.82. The Pirates have the 3rd worst record in MLB and since the All Star break they have won just 1 of their 9 games and that was a 1-0 win. Unlike the Brewers, the Pirates offense has been poor all season ranking 28th or lower in RPG, OPS, and batting average, but even worse since the break. They are hitting just .211 as a team, averaging 3 RPG and they’ve been held to 2 runs or less in 7 of their 9 games since the All Star break. Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes won’t help them break out of that slump tonight. Burnes has been top notch all season but especially on the road where his ERA 1.57 and he’s allowed just 35 hits in 58 innings of work! One of those road games came here @ Pittsburgh on July 1st when Burnes went 6 innings and allowed just 1 hit in a 19-2 Milwaukee win. Burnes leads the N.L. in strike outs and the Pittsburgh offense averages 9.6 K’s per 9 innings which is the 2nd worst in the Majors. In his 2 starts vs Pittsburgh this season, both Milwaukee wins, Burnes has pitched 13 innings, allowed 3 ER’s and struck out 15. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one.

#903 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Mets -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Mets are on a roll coming into this one winning 6 straight games which included a 2 game sweep of the Yankees. During that 6 game stretch NY is averaging 6 RPG and they’ve outscored their opponents 36 to 17. The Nats are coming off a home series vs the Cardinals in which they lost 2 of 3 games and were outscored 17-9. Washington has the worst home record in MLB at 16-38 and their average score at home is 3.7 to 5.3. Of their 38 home losses, 28 have come by 2+ runs. Tonight they face NYM ace Scherzer who has 5 starts since returning from the DL and has allowed 5 total earned runs in those 5 starts. In his most recent start last week he didn’t allowed an ER in 7 strong innings vs the NYY who lead the league in runs scored. Mets have 2nd most road wins in MLB with 33 and their red hot line up will be facing Patrick Corbin tonight. Corbin is 4-14 on the season with an ERA of 6.49 with an opponents batting average allowed of .323. He’s been even worse as of late with an ERA of 13.50 over his last 3 starts allowing 28 baserunners in 12 innings! Corbin has faced the Mets 3 times this season and NY has won all 3 of those games by a combined score of 19-3. These 2 NL East rivals have already faced off 10 times this season with the Mets winning 8 of those games, all by 2 or more runs. They’ve outscored the Nationals 58-24 in those 10 meetings. While the Mets are pushing for an NL East title, the Nats have a number of players that could be traded in the next few days so distractions are many in Washington. The Mets roll again tonight and we’ll lay the 1.5 runs.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE BET: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105) vs. LA Angels, 1:35 PM ET - The Braves have the 5th best total run differential in the Majors at +84 total runs on the season, the Angels are 22nd at minus -42 total runs. When playing on the road the Angels have an average run differential of -.96 runs per game, again one of the worst numbers in baseball. L.A. ranks 25th in runs per 9/innings overall at 3.99, 26th in team average at .229, 27th in OPS and strikeout more than any team in the Bigs. Their away numbers are even worse and if we look at their most recent ten games, we see they are scoring just 2.70 runs per 9/innings and hitting .199 as a team. Los Angeles will have a very tough time scoring runs in this contest against Ian Anderson who is 8-5 on the season with a 4.79 ERA. Anderson has pitched well in his last two starts allowing just 3 earned runs in 10.1 innings of work. Prior to his two solid outings he lost two games but those were against the Phillies and Dodgers who are two of the higher scoring teams in the Majors. The Braves offense is one of the best in the Biz with a team average of .248 (10th), an On Base Percentage of .758 (4th), they rank 5th in runs per 9/innings and are 2nd in home runs per game. An added bonus to today’s game is the fact they are facing the left-handed starter Reid Detmers for the Angels who is 2-3 on the year with a 4.11 ERA, 0-1 on the road. The Braves are one of the better hitting teams off lefties this season at .257, but in their last ten games against southpaws they are scoring 7.02 runs/9 innings and hitting .290. The Braves are 33-20 SU at home and may only need 4 runs to cover this spread considering the lack of hitting by the Angels.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE BET: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105) vs. LA Angels, 7:20 PM ET - The Braves have the 5th best total run differential in the Majors at +79 total runs on the season, the Angels are 21st at minus -37 total runs. When playing on the road the Angels have an average run differential of -.94 runs per game, again one of the worst numbers in baseball. L.A. ranks 25th in runs per 9/innings overall at 3.99, 26th in team average at .229, 27th in OPS and strikeout more than any team in the Bigs. Their away numbers are even worse and if we look at their most recent ten games, we see they are scoring just 2.70 runs per 9/innings and hitting .199 as a team. Los Angeles will have a very tough time scoring runs in this contest against Kyle Wright who is 11-4 on the season with a 2.95 ERA. Wright is 7-1 in his last 9 starts with one no decision and is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball with 107 on the year. The Braves offense is one of the best in the Biz with a team average of .248 (10th), an On Base Percentage of .758 (4th), they rank 5th in runs per 9/innings and are 2nd in home runs per game. An added bonus to today’s game is the fact they are facing the left-handed starter Patrick Sandoval for the Angels who is 3-4 on the year with a 2.95 ERA, but hasn’t pitched well of late allowing 21 hits in his last 16.1 innings of work. The Braves are one of the better hitting teams off lefties this season at .257, but in their last ten games against southpaws they are scoring 7.02 runs/9 innings and hitting .290. The Braves are 32-20 SU at home and may only need 4 runs to cover this spread considering the lack of hitting by the Angels.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) vs. Colorado Rockies, 8:20 PM ET - Milwaukee limped into the All-Star Game having lost three straight games to the Giants and 4 of their last five overall. The break came at a good time for Milwaukee, and we expect a renewed effort here at home in the opener of this series with the Rockies. The Brewers send their Ace to the mound with Corbin Burnes who is 7-4 on the season with a 2.14 ERA and miniscule .90 WHIP. Colorado will have a tough time getting men on base versus Burnes who has 144 strikeouts on the season, just 29 walks and 12 home runs. Colorado has solid overall offensive numbers on the season but much of that is due to their home field where they average 5.88 runs per game and hit .287 as a team. On the road though the numbers are drastically different for the Rockies. Colorado hits just .233 on the road and score 3.02 runs per game which is the second-lowest number in baseball. The Rockies also hit just .212 against right-handed pitchers on the road and score even fewer runs/9 innings at 2.75. Milwaukee is the 12th highest scoring team in baseball at 4.57 runs/9 innings and do it with the long-ball ranking 4th in the Majors in home runs. The Brewers hit 1.38 home runs per game at home which is the 4th highest number in MLB. Milwaukee should get plenty of scoring opportunities versus Antonio Senzatela who is 3-5 on the year with a 4.95 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He’s been even worse on the road at 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Senzatela is expected to see his pitching statistics worsen with an xERA of 5.92 and xFIP of 4.27 which are both higher than his current numbers. The moneyline is out of the question here but the Run Line is in the wheelhouse at -1.5 (-125).

#960 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 9:45 PM ET - The Giants lost the series opener last night 4-3 and we expect a bounce back here with their top starter on the mound.  Logan Webb has been very solid all season for the Giants with an ERA of 2.98 and he has allowed more than 3 ER’s just twice in his 17 starts.  He’s been better at home with an ERA of 2.63 and he’s pitching outstanding right now with an ERA of 1.80 over his last 3 starts.  Arizona’s offense has been solid over their last 10 games (despite 4-6 record) but they’ve faced only 1 starter during that stretch with an ERA of less than 4.00.  We expect Arizona’s hitters to struggle tonight finally facing a top of the line starter.  The Giants offense, on the other hand, should have a field day facing Dallas Keuchel.  He has been terrible all season showing zero signs of a potential turn around.  Keuchel has an ERA of 7.63 and opposing hitters have a batting average of .322 vs him.  Not only are teams hitting the ball hard off him he’s also walking nearly 5 batters per 9 innings which has pushed his WHIP on the season to almost 2.00.  On the road he’s been a trainwreck with an ERA of 11.81 and he’s allowed an absolutely ridiculous 38 baserunners in just 16 innings!  SF ranks 5th in MLB in RPG and they are averaging over 5 RPG vs left handers this season.  The Giants should rake offensively facing Keuchel until he turns the game over to the 8th worst bullpen (ERA) in MLB.  Despite last night’s tight loss, San Francisco has dominated this series at home winning 17 of the last 21 meetings.  We like them to win this one by 2+ runs. 

ASA top play on 10* HOUSTON ASTROS Run Line -1.5 (even) vs. Oakland A’s, 4 PM ET - This is as much a play against the A’s as it is a play on the Astros. Oakland is the worst offense in baseball ranking last in runs/9 innings, team average (.209), OPS and are 29th in home runs per game. This A’s team averages just 3.26 runs per game on the season and only 2.90 runs per game their last ten. They will face Jake Orduzzi who is coming off a bad outing against the hot-hitting Royals but expect a better start here versus this pathetic offense. In their last ten games the A’s are hitting just .197 against right-handed starters and scoring an average of 3.21 runs/9 innings in that span. Houston should bounce back here and have been “money” when coming off a loss winning 72% of their games by an average of +1.5 runs per game. Houston is +11 total hits in the two games of this series and will put up runs in this one. The Astros have the 11th best scoring offense in MLB at 4.57 runs/9 innings, rank 16th in team batting average, 4th in OPS and 3rd in homeruns. The Astros should put up runs versus the left-handed Cole as Houston is hitting .284 versus Lefties their last ten games, scoring 6.20 runs/9 innings. In their last ten games overall, the Astros are outscoring their opponents by 2.80 runs/9 innings. Fade the horrible hitting A's in this one and back a Houston team that can dominate at the plate.

#974 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on Run Line (-135) over KC Royals, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - We are not going to lay -260 on the moneyline here but will lay 1.5 runs with Javier versus Keller. Christian Javier is 6-3 on the season in 11 starts with a 2.58 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and in his last three starts he has allowed just 3 total hits in 19 innings of work. He’ll face Brad Keller for the Royals who is 3-9 on the year with a 4.24 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. In Keller’s last three starts he’s faced Oakland twice and Detroit, who aren’t strong offensively, and allowed 14 hits in 16.2 innings of work. On the season the Royals have one of the worst total run differential at -102 (27th worst) and they’ve lost their last ten games by an average of -1.30 runs per game. Conversely, Houston has the 3rd best overall run differential at +93 runs on the season and they’ve outscored teams 5.60 runs to 2.50 runs per game in their last ten. On the season the Royals are hitting just .237 against right-handed starters and scoring an average of 3.92 runs/9 innings. Houston hits righties at a .241 clip and score 4.85 runs/9 innings. Houston has won 8 straight games and six of those have come by 2 or more runs. Lay it!

#970 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Kansas City Royals, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - We were on the red hot Astros -1.5 yesterday at home vs the Angels and picked up a 4-2 win. Houston has now won 14 of their last 17 games with 11 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. As we mentioned yesterday, their schedule during that stretch has been very tough as well including 9 games vs the Yankees & Mets. In their 3 games series vs the Angels, the Astros outscored LA 21-4 and had 33 hits to just 8 for LA. Houston has the top pitching staff in the Majors and today they bring Odorizzi off the DL to make his first start since mid May. He was solid prior to his injury allowing more than 3 ER’s just once in his 7 starts with a home ERA of 2.19. Odorizzi looked good in his 2 rehab starts in the Minors allowing 5 hits in 8 innings. We don’t expect him to pitch deep into this one but we’re fine with that as he is backed up by the top bullpen in MLB with an ERA of 2.65. The Houston pitching staff as a whole has been fantastic all season long and especially as of late allowing 2 runs or fewer in 8 of their last 9 games. KC ranks 24th or lower in RPG, OPS, and HR per 9 innings so we don’t expect them to do much offensively in this game. Houston’s offense has kicked it into high gear averaging 5 RPG over their last and their average winning margin over that stretch is almost +3 RPG. They’ll face KC starter Heasley who has only 1 win on the season and has allowed 68 baserunners in just 45 innings. While Houston has the top bullpen in the league, KC has the 3rd worst bullpen ERA and the 2nd worst WHIP. KC is 19 games below .500 with a run differential of -99 on the season. Houston is 24 games above .500 with a run differential of +90 and playing their best baseball of the season. We’ll lay the -1.5 here.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-115) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, 7PM ET - We are not ready to lay a big price with the Brewers and Burnes here but we will bet the value of the run line. Burnes is Milwaukee’s best pitcher with a 6-4 record, 2.41 ERA and 0.92 WHIP on the season. In his last 4 starts he is 3-1, having allowed a total of 6 earned runs in 24.3 innings of work. Burnes on the road this season has been nearly unhittable with a 3-1 record and 1.64 ERA. Milwaukee also has one of the better bullpens in the Bigs so after a strong start by Burnes they’ll close the door on a Pirates team that is 28th in runs/9 innings, 28th in team batting average, 28th in OPS. Yesterday the Brewers pounded out more hits (12) than the Pirates but got a horrible start from Houser in their 7-8 loss. The Pirates are sending Contreras to the Hill who is 2-1 on the season with a 2.76 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. In his last four starts Contreras has allowed 8 earned runs in 18.3 innings of work. Most recently he had some control issues against Tampa Bay with 5 walks. Milwaukee is 13th in runs/9 innings, 14th in OPS and 4th in homeruns. Milwaukee scores more than 1 full run per game against right-hander starters than the Pirates do and Pittsburgh is 27th in the league in total run differential at minus -100 on the season. After a loss yesterday we like Milwaukee to bounce back here big.

#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:15 PM ET - We were on the Giants at home last night (-1.5 runs) and they lost to the Reds 4-2. Tonight we get them in a great spot, off a home loss, facing a poor pitcher, and SF has their top pitcher on the mound. Despite that, we’re getting a very similar price at -1.5 Runs (-115) when last night was right around even money at -1.5. Logan Webb has been outstanding for the Giants with an ERA of 3.26 and an xFIP of 3.15. At home he’s been even better with a 4-1 record and a 2.74 ERA. He’s facing a Cincinnati offense that struggles big time on the road with a batting average of just .211 while scoring only 3 RPG (the Reds average 6 RPG at home). On top of that, the Cincinnati lineup is very unfamiliar with Webb with only 11 total plate appearances (0 hits) giving Webb a big advantage especially early in the game. Despite last night’s win, the Reds have still lost 7 of their last 8 games and have a road record of 12-23. Cincy sends left hander Minor to the mound and he’s been poor this season. He has an ERA of 6.97 and opponents are hitting .271 vs him. The Reds are 1-3 in his 4 starts this season and he’s allowed 7 HR’s already in just 4 appearances for an average of 3 HR’s per 9 innings pitched which is terrible. He’s facing a SF offense that is 4th in MLB in RPG, 10th in HR’s per 9 innings, and 11th in OPS so this is not a good match up for Minor. When Minor is done for the evening, the Reds back him up with a bullpen that has the worst ERA and the 2nd worst WHIP in the Majors. The Reds road RPG differential is -1.9 on the season so laying 1.5 is not a stretch here. San Fran sits 6 games above .500 and has a run differential of +40 on the season while Cincinnati is 22 games below .500 and has a differential of -77. Lay the -1.5 at home with the Giants.

#960 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Cincinnati, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - The Giants are back home after losing 3 of 4 @ Atlanta. However, all 3 losses in that series were by 1 run and San Francisco actually outhit the Braves and had more men on base despite coming up short in 3 of 4 games. Alex Cobb is on the hill for the Giants and he is pitching well above what his ERA might indicate. His ERA is 5.62 on the season yet his xERA is 2.25 and his xFIP is 2.64 which is the lowest of any starting pitcher on the slate for Friday. He’s been extremely unlucky with a BABIP of .381 and his overall numbers at home are much better than his road numbers. Cincinnati enters this game having lost 7 straight including 6 in a row in their recent home stand. They have allowed an average of over 7 RPG during that 7 games stretch and they’ve given up at least 5 runs in each of those games. Ashcraft gets the call for Cincinnati. The rookie has solid overall numbers but he’s on the decline right now. Over his last 2 starts he’s allowed 10 ER’s in just 9.2 innings on 17 hits. The Giants saw him in late May so they should have a good feel at the plate tonight. When Ashcraft exits, the Reds have the worst bullpen ERA in the Majors and the 2nd worst WHIP. The Giants also have an edge at the plate where they rank 4th in MLB in RPG and put up over 5 RPG at home. The Reds are a night and day difference home and away at the plate. At home they average 6 RPG and on the road just 3 RPG to go along with their 11-23 road record. Their road RPG differential is -2 on the season. On the season San Fran has a run differential of +42 while Cincinnati’s is -79. There is a reason this line opened -180 and jumped to above -200 despite Ashcraft having better ERA number than Cobb, who is drastically undervalued. Lay the -1.5 at home with the Giants.

#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Angels -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City, Wednesday at 9:45 PM ET - KC won the first 2 games of this series, each by a single run. This game will end KC’s tough west coast trip with their 9th road game in 10 days before they head home to play Oakland on Friday. The Angels bats got hot with 11 runs yesterday but they lost with Detmers on the mound. LA has now lost 6 straight with Detmers as the starting pitcher. If they can keep their bats hot today vs a mediocre KC pitcher, the Angels should be sitting great with Ohtani on the mound. He’s been their most consistent starter with an ERA of 3.28 and an xFIP of just 2.92, the lowest xFIP of any starting pitcher on Wednesday. He’s allowed just 1 ER in his last 2 starts spanning 13 innings. KC will have a much tougher time offensively tonight against Ohtani who has averaged 11.5 K’s per 9 innings while walking just over 2 batters. We look for LA’s bats to put up solid numbers again tonight facing Daniel Lynch who has the 5th highest xFIP of any starting pitcher today and an ERA of 5.19. Lynch is coming off a solid start, however that was vs the weak hitting A’s (worst hitting team in MLB). In his 3 starts prior to that, he allowed 16 ER’s in just 15 innings allowing a whopping 29 baserunners during that 3 game stretch! If he struggles, which we expect, the bullpen is never much help for KC. They have the 3rd worst ERA and worst WHIP in MLB. Overall, KC’s pitching staff ranks in the bottom 5 in ERA, batting average allowed, OBP allowed, and OPS allowed. Because of that weak pitching staff, the Royals need to score runs to have a chance. In fact, in their 25 wins this year (25-42 record) they have averaged 5.7 RPG. That won’t happen tonight vs Ohtani and the Angels. LA prevents what would be an embarrassing sweep at home vs KC and wins this one by at least 2 runs.

#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -1.5 on the Run Line over Washington, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Aaron Nola is on the hill for the Phillies and he’s been outstanding all season. His ERA is 3.48 but his xERA and xFIP are much lower telling us he’s pitching even better than his already solid ERA. He averages 10 K’s per 9 innings and just 1 walk so baserunners will be few for the Nationals on Saturday. Nola has faced current Washington hitters for nearly 100 career plate appearances and held them to a batting average of only .190. The Washington offense ranks 22nd in RPG, 20th in OPS, and 28th in HR’s. At home they average just 3.7 RPG and vs right handers that drops to 3.0 RPG. Gray is on the hill for the Nats and while he’s pitched better over his last few games he’s been a bit lucky to keep his ERA at 4.33. His FIP is 5.43 and he’s stranded 83% of the batters which have reached base which is well above the league average of 70% meaning his ERA could be quite a bit higher had he not gotten a bit lucky with his LOB% numbers. His ERA at home is north of 7.00 and he’s struggled with control walking over 4 per 9 innings. Gray gives up a ton of HR’s (2 per 9 innings) which is a terrible match up vs this red hot Philadelphia offense that is 3rd in MLB averaging 1.33 HR’s per game. The Phillies have won 14 of their last 16 games and over the last 10 they have a batting average of .289 while averaging 6 RPG. Philly has won 10 straight games vs the Nationals and 12 of the last 13 in Washington. We like the Phillies to win this one by 2+ runs vs the struggling Nationals who have an 11-24 record at home this season.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 6 @ 9 PM ET - It obviously didn’t work in Game 5 but we will stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are now 12-2 SU/ATS their last fourteen off a loss and a near perfect 7-1 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Boston was 28-13 SU at home during the regular season with the 5th best average point differential of +7PPG. We don’t feel the Celtics will succumb to the pressures of this situation as they have too many good players that can step up in any given situation. The Warriors are 4-5 SU on the road in the playoffs and they weren’t a great road team in the regular season with a 22-19 SU record and a +/- of 1.2PPG. Granted, Steph Curry is not going to miss every 3-pointer he takes in this game as he did in the last, but the Celtics defense will again provide a stiff challenge and make every point tough to come by. This is going to be a 7-game series and we like the Celtics to get a double-digit win in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 run -105 vs. Baltimore Orioles, 7 PM ET - The Jays have been one of the best hitting teams in the Big Leagues this season with an average of 8.49 hits per game. In their last three games the Blue Jays have pounded out an average of 11.67 hits per game which includes 19 hits last night against the O’s. In their last nine games the Jays have scored 6 or more runs seven times while averaging 7.2 runs per game. Toronto has a top 10 offense in terms of runs scored per 9 innings, team batting average .257, rank 2nd in OPS and 8th in home runs. Conversely, Baltimore averages just 4.05 runs per 9 innings which ranks 25th in the league, hit .230 as a team (26th) and are 25th in OPS. The Orioles also strike out 9.13 times per game which is 26th in the Bigs. Baltimore will send Lyles to the mound to slow down the Jays offense, but we don’t see that happening. Lyles has given up 10 earned runs in his last ten innings of work on 17 hits and that was against Kansas City and Seattle who both rank in the bottom half of MLB in hits per game. Toronto has Yusei Kikuchi scheduled to take the bump for the Jays, who hasn’t been great with a 2-2 record, but the Lefty should have success against this O’s team that is hitting just .230 against Lefties this season and averaging just 3.66 runs/9 innings. Toronto has a +34-run differential on the year which ranks them 9th best in the league. Baltimore has a net differential of -38 runs on the season which is 21st.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +4 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - Steph Curry is great! He literally carried the Warriors to a win in Game 4 with 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting overall and 7 of 14 from Deep. Those types of numbers are tough to duplicate no matter how good you are, and we just don’t see his supporting cast stepping up enough in this one to get a cover. The amazing stat of this series is this, despite every game being decided by 9 or more points, the total points scored by both teams is 422 to 421. This game is going to be tight to the end as both know the winner of this game is more than likely going to win the series. We must stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are 12-1 SU/ATS their last thirteen off a loss and a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Now this doesn’t mean we are backing Boston to win here, but it’s a clear indicator of just how good they are off a loss. The Celtics are 16-3-1 ATS their last twenty on the road and they owned the best average point differential in the NBA during the regular season at +7.6PPG. I know some guys will be on the Moneyline here with Boston and I don’t disagree with the assessment but I can’t ignore the points as Golden State may win but it’s going to be close.

#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The Phillies are red hot. They’ve won 8 straight and their bats have been smoking to say the least. During their 8 game winning streak they’ve reached at least 6 runs 7 times and they are averaging 7.5 RPG during that stretch. If they get anywhere near that today they should cover this 1.5 easily as the Phillies have their top pitcher Wheeler on the mound. He’s allowed just 6 ER’s in his last 6 starts and while his ERA of 3.14 is very good, his xERA 2.83 and his FIP is 2.30 telling us he’s pitching better than his actual ERA this season. He’s been very unlucky with a BABIP (batting average balls in play) of .338 and has very solid numbers despite that. Arizona’s offense ranks 24th in RPG, 29th in batting average and 22nd in OPS. They are just 3-5 on their current 8 game road trip despite playing Pittsburgh and Cincinnati the first 7 games of that stretch. They’ve averaged just over 4 RPG on this road trip but they’ve been very fortunate as they are averaging just 6.75 hits per game on this road trip. Philly will be facing Bumgarner for Arizona and after a hot start to the season he has been struggling to say the least. After allowing just 4 ER’s in his first 5 starts, Bumgarner has given up 18 ER’s in his last 5 outings. He’s allowed 41 baserunners in his last 29 innings so we look for the Phillies red hot bats to have plenty of opportunities in this game. In yesterday’s game, Philadelphia scored 6 runs in the first 2 innings vs Arizona ace Zach Gallen who had allowed more than 2 ER’s just ONCE all season. The Phillies are 29-29 on the season yet have a run differential of +36. Arizona is 28-32 with a run differential of -44. We think Arizona will struggle offensively today vs Wheeler while Philly will continue their onslaught at the plate. Lay the 1.5 runs (-115) in this game.

#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON NY Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Friday at 7 PM ET - We’ll lay -1.5 runs (-120) with the Yanks here who have the largest run differential in MLB at +104 which equates to an average score of 4.9 – 3.0. At home they’ve beaten teams by an average of 2 RPG and over their last 10 games their margin of victory is +3.1 RPG. NY has the best record in the Majors at 41-16 and at home they are 23-7. They are red hot offensively right now averaging 6.5 RPG over their last 10 and they’ve gotten to at least 10 runs in 3 of their last 6 games. They’ll face Cubs left hander Miley in this one who is just coming off they DL with a bad shoulder. He’s pitched in only 3 games this season and while his ERA is 3.38 his xFIP is much higher indicating he’s due for a regression. The Cubs step into this game 10 games under .500 and have lost 4 of their last 5 games. They are facing Yankee starter Severino who has an ERA of 2.95 but an xERA of 2.60 and NY has won 8 of the 10 games he has started with 7 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. NY has the much better bullpen as well in this game. They Yankees have dominated inferior opponents at home with a 69-26 record their last 95 vs teams with a losing record. The Cubs are just 21-47 their last 48 games overall vs a team with a winning record. We like NY to win this one by 2+ runs at home tonight.

#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -1.5 on Run Line over Colorado, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET - The Rockies send left hander Gomber to the hill who has been a disaster as of late. In his last 2 starts, spanning 6.1 innings, he has allowed 17 ER’s on 17 hits! ON the road this season Gomber has an ERA of almost 7.00 and he’s won just 1 game away from home this year. SF has done well vs lefties averaging just under 6 RPG at home this season. They’ve also hit Gomber very well in the past as current Giant players have a lifetime average of .341 vs the left hander. When he exits, enter the 2nd worst bullpen in all of baseball with an ERA of 5.02. It’s not just the “thin air” in Denver that has caused the poor numbers from the Colorado relievers as their ERA away from home is worse than it is at Coors Field. The SF offense should have a field day at home this afternoon. The Giants will counter with Logan Webb who has a solid 3.82 ERA, however his xERA and xFIP are both lower meaning he’s actually pitching better than his current numbers. He’s a perfect 3-0 at home this season and the Giants have won 6 of his last 8 starts. Last year Webb was 11-3 with an ERA of 2.97 so he has been extremely solid for this team. He’s facing a Colorado team that has only 8 road wins all season which is tied for least in MLB. Their offense falls off a cliff on the road where they average just 3 RPG and only 2.7 RPG vs right handed pitchers. Colorado is getting beat by an average score of 5.5 – 3.0 on the road this season. They are also only 17-35 their last 52 trips to San Francisco. We like the Giants to roll in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 3 Wednesday 8 PM ET - If you spend any amount of time watching the “talking heads” on ESPN, TNT or the rest of the hype media, we recommend you don’t. I love how those guys, who aren’t held accountable when they lose, just spew predictions without consequences. Where I’m going is this, after a dominating Game 1 Boston win the so-called experts were saying the series was over, the Celtics were the much better team and going to win the series etc…Then Golden State crushes the C’s in Game 2 and they all flip-flop to the Warriors and are now predicting them to win again in Game 3. How about nobody over-reacts and looks at this objectively. We like Boston to bounce back after that humiliating loss and get a resounding win at home in Game 3. The Celts were 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with the 5th best average of Margin of Victory at +7PPG. Granted the Celtics are 5-4 SU in the postseason at home but overall they are 4-0 SU/ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +16.25PPG. On the year, the C’s are 26-12 SU off a loss, 12-5 SU at home off a loss, 10-7 ATS. Golden State has already lost 4 road games in the playoffs and were an unimpressive 22-19 SU away from home during the regular season with a +/- of +1.2PPG. We also like the fact Scott Foster will be officiating this game which means Draymond Green will be on a shorter leash than normal. Boston will have great energy at home tonight and win big.

#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON Atlanta -1.5 on Run Line over Oakland, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Atlanta comes home off a red hot run @ Colorado sweeping the Rockies in a 4 games series and outscoring them 30-16. Oakland, on the other hand, has lost 9 of their last 10 games and their bats continue to struggle scoring 2 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games. The A’s offense ranks either 29th or 30th (out of 30 teams) in RPG, batting average, OPS, and HR’s per 9 innings. Those numbers won’t improve vs Atlanta’s Kyle Wright who has allowed 1 ER or fewer in 3 of his last 4 starts. Wright has an ERA of 2.41 and is allowing opposing hitters a batting average of just .191. Not one hitter on Oakland’s roster as ever faced Wright giving him a big advantage in this game. While Oakland bats are ice cold, Atlanta’s hitters have been on a roll with a batting average of .280 scoring an average of 5.7 RPG over their last 10. They have been very solid vs lefties all season long averaging 5.2 RPG. They are facing left hander Irvin in this game and while his overall numbers look solid, he is due for a regression. Irvin’s ERA is 2.96, however his xERA is 5.06 and his xFIP is 4.39 which gives us an indication of how he’s actually pitching. His numbers on the road haven’t been anywhere near his home numbers with an ERA of 5.09 away from home this season. While Oakland’s current roster has never faced Wright, Atlanta’s roster has had huge success vs Irvin with a whopping .588 batting average in his career. We’re also backed up by the much better bullpen in this game (6th in ERA compared to Oakland 20th in ERA). We have the better starting pitcher, better bullpen, and much hotter hitting team in this game. We’ll lay the 1.5 runs at -115.

#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto -1.5 on the Run Line over Minnesota, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - There isn’t a hotter offensive team in MLB than Toronto right now and they are facing a Minnesota team that is decimated due to injuries and Covid restrictions. The Jays have won 8 straight games and their offense has put up at least 6 runs in all but one of those games. During that 8 game stretch they are averaging 7 RPG and they’ve done some serious damage vs a number of top notch starting pitchers. This team overall probably isn’t quite as good as their 30-20 record as their run differential isn’t great, however they are red hot right now. As we mentioned they are also facing a Minnesota team that is nowhere near 100% and struggling right now. Two of Minnesota’s better offensive players, Correa and Celestino are out due to Covid. Royce Lewis, hitting .300, just came back from a 12 day hiatus due to injury and had to go right back on the IL so he is not available. Now we add in a number of other key players due to Canada’s Covid policy that players must be vaccinated to enter the country. That takes out starting OF Kepler and 3 pitchers that work out of the Minnesota bullpen all unavailable for this series. The Twins come into this game having lost 4 of 5 games @ Detroit, one of the worst teams in MLB, and Minnesota scored only 2 total runs in their last 3 games vs the Tigers. The Twins have won just 3 of their last 10 games and all 10 of those games were vs KC or Detroit who have a combined record of 37-63! In fact, in a weird scheduling situation, the Twins have faced either Detroit or KC in 15 straight games and prior to that they faced Oakland. So Minnesota has played 18 straight games vs the 3 teams who have the worst records in the American League and they are just 10-8 in those games. They take a big step up in competition here and are facing a solid starting pitcher. Toronto will go with left hander Kikuchi on the mound and he has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 8 of his 9 starts. The Minnesota offense is hitting .167 over their last 10 games vs lefties while averaging less than 1 run per 9 innings. The Twins pulled up Chi Chi Gonzalez from the Minors to make his first MLB appearance this season. He has pitched some at the MLB level but not successfully as his ERA’s over the last 3 seasons were 6.46, 6.86, and 5.29. Now facing a red hot offense we expect him to have problems in this game. Toronto is rolling right now, they are 17-8 at home this season, and Minnesota has too many key players out to hang in this one. We’ll take Toronto at -1.5 on the run line at even money

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 9 PM ET - The best part about this series is the fact that we have the two best teams vying for the Championship and it should be a fantastic series. These were the two best defensive teams in the league during the regular season allowing just 1.070-points per possession. Boston was the better offensive team during the regular season, but the Warriors have flipped the switch in the postseason and have averaged 1.171-points per possession. The Celtics have a pair of quality series wins over the Bucks and Heat, but Milwaukee was without Khris Middleton and the Heat played games without Butler, Herro and Lowry. The Celtics defense contributed to some of the Heat’s 3-point shooting struggles, but a bigger part of the equation was just poor shooting by Miami. Now the Celtics face a Warriors team that is dialed in from beyond the Arc. Golden State just faced the 4th best 3-point percentage defense in the NBA of the Mavericks and they torched them from Deep by hitting 59 of 143 or 41%. Golden State is 40-10 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +10.4PPG. Boston was good on the road this season at 30-20 SU but the young Celtics are faced with their biggest challenge ever in this pressure packed environment. Golden State is 9-0 SU at home in the playoffs and they’ve won those games by an average of +15PPG. This is going to be a great series but we have to side with the veteran home team in the opener.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 7 Sunday 8:30 PM ET - If you’ve spent any time watching the NBA playoffs you better know the Celtics are the better team and capable of winning the title this season. Yes, Miami has the best player with Jimmy Butler but he doesn’t have enough supporting talent around him right now. Jimmy hasn’t shown up in a few games so I don’t trust him here when he’s less than 100% on a bum knee. Boston has the better roster and have multiple players capable of taking over the game themselves in Tatum, Brown, Smart and Horford. Home court doesn’t mean much here considering the road team has won 4 games already in this series and it’s clear the oddsmakers agree with the road team favored. In fact, Boston is 20-4 SU this season when favored on the road and they’ve won those games by an average of +14.5PPG. I like Boston off a loss. The Celtics are 25-11, 23-13 ATS this season overall when coming off a loss. They are 10-1 SU/ATS their last eleven off a loss including a 5-0 record in the playoffs. Without Butler’s 40+ points in Game 6 the Heat are blown out. Lowry has struggled with his shooting until the last game and we don’t expect a repeat performance in this pressure situation. Prior to the Playoffs we liked Boston to get to the Finals and we’ll stick with that prediction and like them to get a win here.

#977 ASA 9* TOP PLAY ON Houston -1.5 on Run Line over Seattle, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Houston is -200 at most places in this one and by laying -1.5 runs we can knock that down to -120. Seattle is struggling right now to say the least. They have lost 6 straight games and 8 of their last 9. They have been outscored by 19 runs over their last 6 games or an average of -3.2 RPG. They were just swept at home in a 2 game series vs Oakland who has a 19-28 record on the season and they were outhit 21 to 9 in those 2 games. Now they face one of the top pitchers in MLB in Justin Verlander so we don’t expect their offense to catch fire here. Verlander has allowed just 7 ER’s in 8 starts this season and over his last 3 starts he has not allowed a single ER in 19 innings of work. His WHIP is a miniscule 0.72 and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .129 vs Verlander. He’s faced Seattle twice this season and the Astros have won those 2 games by a combined score of 11-2. In those 2 starts he’s allowed 2 ER’s in 14.2 innings with 11 K’s and no walks. Flexen is on the mound for Seattle and his numbers aren’t great this season. His ERA is almost 5.00 and opposing teams have a batting average of .275 when he is pitching. While Verlander is peaking right now, Flexen has struggled his last 3 starts allowing 14 ER’s in 14 innings. He has made 8 starts this year and Seattle has won 1 of those games. When the 2 starters exit, Houston has a huge edge in the bullpen leading MLB in ERA while Seattle is 25th. Houston is 4-2 this year vs Seattle and in their most recent series in early May, the Astros outscored the M’s 14-2 in 3 games. Seattle has a -29 run differential on the season while Houston sits at +47 (3rd in MLB behind Dodgers and Yankees). We like Houston to win this one by at least 2 runs.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals +155) over St Louis Blues, Friday at 8:05 PM ET - This Avalanche team that blew a 3-0 lead and lost Game 5 on home ice will bounce back here.  That is the kind of loss strong teams bounce back from and certainly the Avs are the much stronger team in terms of how they match up with St Louis.  The Avalanche, prior to the Game 5 loss, had won 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams.  Also, 8 of last 10 Colorado wins in this series have been by a margin of 2 or more goals. In all games, 9 of last 11 Avalanche wins have come by a margin of 2 or more goals.  Colorado had won 7 of 8 playoff games in this post-season before the Game 5 loss and are set up well for a big bounce back here at a solid comeback price on the puck line with laying the 1.5 goals.  The road team has won 4 straight meetings and 8 of the last 10 between these teams and the strong trend away from home ice continues here.  Road team in a blowout per our computer math model.  Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Colorado at plus money (currently +155 range) is a big value play here.

#930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona -1.5 on the Run Line over Kansas City, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - Laying -1.5 runs here knocks the money line down to about even money. Arizona throws their ace Zac Gallen vs the light hitting Royals tonight. Gallen has been fantastic all season and we just don’t see KC’s offense doing much of anything tonight. Gallen has allowed just 5 ER’s all season in 7 starts for an ERA of 1.14. He’s been even better at home allowing 2 ER’s in 24 innings for an ERA of 0.75. The Royals offense has struggled ranking 24th in runs scored per game and their run differential of -60 is the worst in the American League. They have lost 7 of their last 9 games and 6 of those losses have come by at least 2 runs. Arizona’s offensive numbers for the season are not impressive due to a terrible start to the season at the plate. They’ve looked much better as of late averaging over 5 RPG through their last 10 games. They’ve hit .270 and scored nearly 7 RPG during that 10 game stretch vs right handed pitchers. Tonight they face righty Johnathan Heasley who has been a career minor leaguer for the most part. He has a total of 23 IP in the Majors in his 5 year career. This season he has pitched 8.1 innings, walked 7 batters and allowed 15 base runners. The Royals lost both of his starts this year by a combined score of 6 to 1. He has an ERA this season of 4.32 but he’s been rather lucky has his xERA is above 6.00. If Heasley has a short stint tonight, the KC bullpen ranks 3rd worst in the Majors in ERA and over their last 10 games the relievers have an ERA of almost 7.00. We like Arizona’s offense to have success tonight while KC will struggle to put numbers up vs one of the top starters in MLB. We’ll lay 1.5 runs in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 4 Monday 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics laid an egg in Game 3 against the Heat and will bounce back here on their home court. Boston was flat in the previous game, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter after allowing 39. Miami was in control throughout the entire game before the C’s made it interesting late. Tatum had a horrible night for Boston by going 3 of 14 from the field for just 10-points so expect a much better showing in Game 4. Miami could be without their best defender in this game as Jimmy Butler only played 19+ minutes in G3 after reaggravating a lingering knee injury. Not only does that hurt Miami’s defense and primary defender on Tatum or Brown, it takes 21.4PPG and 6RPG away from their offense. Strangely enough, the Heat have only won 2 of the 12 quarters played in this series, yet still hold a 2-1 series advantage. The Law of Averages will start to even out beginning in Game 4 which is now a must-win for Boston. Boston is 24-11 SU when coming off a loss this season with the best average Margin of Victory in the league at +7.6PPG. Including the post season the C’s are 32-16 SU at home and they’ve won those games by +6.8PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road in the playoffs and the three losses have come by an average of 10PPG. If Butler plays or doesn’t we still like Boston big at home.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -2.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - This series shifts to Dallas and the host is going to get a home win here. Golden State blew the Mavs out in Game 1, then Dallas jumped out to a big lead in Game 2 early, then produced just 45 points in the second half to lose by 9. Dallas is in a must win situation here and elite teams find a way to win these games. The Mavs were 29-12 SU at home this season with a +/- of +6.3PPG. Dallas is 5-1 SU at home in the playoffs and their average margin of victory is +11.8PPG. Golden State was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season which is solid, but they haven’t been great in the postseason with three losses away from home. One of those losses was a 30-point blowout in Memphis. Dallas was 25-11 SU this season off a loss, 10-4 at home. Their average margin of victory when coming off a loss is +6.0PPG. Golden State is 0-4 ATS their last four road games, Dallas has covered 7 of their last eight at home as a chalk. Luka and company will find a way to get this home win!

#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -1.5 on Run Line over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 1 PM ET - These 2 met last weekend and the Yankees took 3 of 4 games in Chicago. In that series NY outscored the Sox 32 to 15 and out hit them with a batting average of .286 to .231. The Yanks continue to roll with MLB’s best record at 28-10 and the 2nd best run differential at +72 (Dodgers have top run differential). They’ve won 8 of their last 10 but are coming off a rare loss at Baltimore which bodes well for NY as they are 15-3 SU coming off a loss dating back to the end of last season. Yankee ace lefty Cortes hits the hill tonight and he completely shut down the White Sox over the weekend giving up just 1 run over 8 innings. The Sox were able to get just 3 batters on base during that 8 inning span. Cortes has an ERA of 1.35 on the season averaging almost 12 K’s per 9 innings, allowing an opponent batting average of .164 with a WHIP of 0.85. He’s also backed up by one of the best bullpens in baseball. We don’t expect Chicago, who ranks 26th in runs scored and 26th in OPS, to do much of anything offensively in this one. Chicago is also in a tough situational spot having just played 5 games in 4 days @ KC and now on the road again. The Yankees don’t have any problems offensively right now. They lead MLB in OPS, 2nd in HR’s per game, and 4th in runs scored. They face Dallas Keuchel who has been very poor this season after struggling as well a year ago. He has an ERA of 5.54 and a WHIP of almost 2.00. Keuchel is allowing opposing hitters a batting average of .319 and he’s walking over 5 batters per 9 innings. He pitched fairly well vs NY over the weekend going 5 innings and not allowing a run, however the Yanks had 7 baserunners during that 5 inning stretch. On the road this season Keuchel has an ERA of over 11.00 and a WHIP of almost 3.00! The Yanks average over 6 RPG at home vs lefties this season and we like them to pound Keuchel in this one. Let’s lay 1.5 runs with New York on Saturday in early day game action.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 9 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Mavs who are coming off a huge upset of the #1 seed Suns with a road win and now travel to face a rested Warriors team. Golden State was 31-10 SU at home in the regular season with the best average Margin of Victory at +9.9PPG. At home the Warriors allowed just 1.039-points per possession which was tops in the league. Golden State is 6-0 in the playoffs with an average MOV of +15PPG with 5 of their wins coming by 6 or more points. Dallas was solid on the road this season during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and a +/- of +0.3PPG. The Mavericks have very good defensive efficiency numbers on the season but they were much better at home than they were on the road as they ranked 12th in DEFF when away from home. Offensively the Mavs may not have enough weapons to compete with Golden State in this series. Dallas is currently 24th in the league in scoring, Golden State is 13th. The Mavs are 18th in overall team FG%, Golden State is 6th. Dallas is the 15th ranked 3PT shooting team in the NBA, the Warriors are 4th. In the playoffs these teams have similar numbers with the Warriors averaging 1.148PPP and Dallas averaging 1.156PPP. Golden State has been slightly better defensively than the Mavs in the postseason allowing 1.108PPP compared to 1.109PPP for the Mavs. Luka is the best overall player left in the playoffs but the Warriors have too many weapons with Klay, Steph, Draymond and Poole.

#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami -1.5 on the Run Line over Washington, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - Yesterday we were on Tampa Bay on the run line and picked up an easy 8-1 win. We see a similar outcome (easy win) tonight with Miami over Washington. Rather than laying -200 with the Marlins we’ll grab the run line at -1.5 and then we are getting +115. Miami has dominated this series this season going a perfect 5-0 thus far and tonight they have their best pitcher on the mound. Pablo Lopez has been fantastic this season giving up just 5 ER’s in starts! He has allowed 0 ER’s in 4 of his 7 starts and has allowed more than 1 ER just one time all season. He’s already faced Washington this year and did not give up an ER in his 6 IP. He’s facing a Nationals team that has really struggled offensively as of late, scoring 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games. In their 5 games vs Miami this season, Washington has scored a total of 8 runs and they have not topped 2 runs in any of those 5 games. They are hitting just .184 as a team in those 5 games averaging less than 6 hits per game. In the first 2 games of this series in Miami, the Nats have been outscored 13-3 and outhit 26-12. Miami is trending upward offensively. They are averaging 6 RPG over their last 6 games and over their last 10 the Marlins are hitting .282 vs right handers and putting up nearly 6 RPG. They’ll be facing Washington starter Josiah Gray who has an ERA of 4.34 and has really struggled his last 2 outings allowing 9 ER’s in 11 IP and 5 HR’s. In his 1 start vs Miami this season, Gray allowed 4 ER’s and 10 baserunners in just 5.2 innings of work. When we get to the bullpens, Miami is superior in almost every key category. We think Washington really struggles offensively again vs one of the top pitchers in the Majors and Miami wins this one by at least 2 runs.

#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -1.5 on Run Line over Detroit, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - TB is a huge -275 favorite here but if we take the run line we can knock it down to the -120 range. Tampa is coming off a 3-2 loss yesterday vs the Tigers and Detroit scored the game winner in the 9th inning. The Tigers had only 6 baserunners in 9 innings yesterday and somehow scratched out 3 runs. We think Detroit struggles to score anything today vs McClanahan who is on the hill for Tampa. He has fantastic 2.52 ERA but has actually pitched better than his numbers with an xERA of 2.40 and a ridiculously good xFIP of 1.65. McClanahan is averaging a whopping 13 K’s per 9 innings while walking just 2. He’s facing a Detroit offense that ranks dead last in the Majors in both scoring and OPS. The Tigers, with a 13-23 record, might look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 4 straight but their 3 wins prior to last night were at home where they swept a bad Baltimore team. In the 3 games before that series the Tigers were swept at home by Oakland and scored 4 total runs in that 3 game series. Detroit pitcher Brieske has made 4 starts this season and those are his only 4 appearances in the Majors in his career. His ERA looks solid at 3.86, however his xERA is almost 6.00 and his xFIP is 5.82. Prior to getting called up to Detroit he had an ERA of 4.50 for Toledo in the Minors. His luck factor has been extremely high with opposing hitters BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is just .164. We like Tampa to win this one by at least 2 runs.

#524 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston -5 over Milwaukee, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET - The Bucks had a chance to put this series away at home on Friday night and came up well short losing 108-95. Milwaukee led in that game for a grand total of 3 minutes! In fact, since the start of the 2nd quarter in game 5, the Bucks have led for just 4:40 of a possible 84:00 minutes and somehow they were able to split those 2 games. Each team won in blowout fashion to split the first 2 games of the series, since then Milwaukee won 2 down to the wire games by 2 & 3 points in which they trailed with under 1:00 minute remaining in each while the Celtics 2 wins since then were by 13 & 8 points. In those 2 tight wins by the Bucks, Boston star Jason Tatum was a combined 16 of 48 from the field (33%) and 2 of 18 from beyond the arc (11%). Even with that, Boston nearly won both of those games. When Tatum has played well, Boston has won comfortably and we expect a big game from him on Sunday. Despite the series being tied at 3-3, Boston has a point differential of +27 in 6 games despite shooting just 40.7% from the field with Milwaukee making 42% of their shots. The Celts are also +18 points vs the spread so far in 6 games. The Bucks are lucky to still be alive in this series. We think it will be very difficult for Milwaukee to win on the road for the 3rd time in this series. We’ll lay the points with Boston.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -8 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - The Warriors were HUMILIATED in the last meeting and teams of this caliber will be extra motivated and focused here. Golden State was down 50 in the 3rd quarter of game 5 and were never in it. Let’s not forget the Warriors were 31-10 SU at home with the best average margin of victory at +9.9PPG. GST is also 5-0 at home in the playoffs with a +/- of +15PPG and own a 30-point win a few games ago versus this same Grizzlies team. Golden State was 12-4 SU off a loss this season when playing at home and are 9-4 ATS off a loss of 20+ points this season. The experience and home court advantage will be too much for the Grizzlies to overcome.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET Tuesday - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Games 3 & 4 at home with the return of Joel Embiid and tied this series up 2-2. We are betting the 76ers cannot continue to shoot as well as they did in the two home games when they shot 48% overall in Game 3, 48% from Deep. In Game 4 they were even better at 54% overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable as Philly was below average in terms of team average FG% at 46.6% and had a team 3PT% of 36.4%. Not to mention, the Heat held the 4th best FG% defense this season at 44.7% and were the 2nd best 3PT% defensive team in the league allowing opponents to make 33.9% of their attempts. Miami also had two abysmal shooting performances in the two games in Philly but should find their stroke again back in South Beach. In Game 3 the Heat shot just 35% overall and 23% from 3. Miami then shot 46% in Game 4 but hit just 7 of 35 from Deep or 20%. Those 3-point statistics are unusually strange considering the Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami back at home. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-11 SU record, 10-5 SU at home. The Heat are 34-12 SU at home this season, 5-0 SU in the playoffs. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 5.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +1.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Game 4 Monday 7:30 PM ET - This game presents another “Zig-Zag” opportunity, so we’ll back the Celtics in this pivotal Game 4. With a win the Celtics can even the series and reclaim home court advantage. Good or bad shooting has played the biggest role in this series and the Celtics are coming off a horrible shooting Game 3 and we expect a correction here. Boston shot just 37% overall and 27% in Game 3 after shooting 47% from beyond the Arc in Game 2. Jayson Tatum (averages 26.9PPG, 8RPG) will bounce back after a poor game in which he scored 10 points on 4 of 19 shooting (0-6 from 3). Even with their All-Star and best player (Tatum) struggling the Celtics still played the Bucks to a 2-point game. Giannis was absolutely incredible in Game 3 with 42-points, 12 rebounds and 8 assists but we doubt he can replicate that performance here. Jrue Holiday contributed 25-point in the G3 win but it took him 30 field goal attempts to get it which isn’t a good sign. Boston has a roster capable of winning it all this season and they’ll bounce back off the previous game loss. The Celtics are 21-12 SU off a loss this season, 10-7 away from home.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +2 over Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Game 3 with the return of Joel Embiid in their 20-point home win, which makes this a 2-1 series in favor of Miami. Embiid didn’t have a big statistical impact with 18-points and 11-rebounds and he’s clearly not 100% with a bad thumb and orbital fracture. The 76ers had a great shooting Game 3 at home with 48% overall and 48% from beyond the 3-point line. Maxey and Green had unusually great games with a combined 42-points and 12 of 15 shooting from beyond the arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable and will revert back to the norm. Miami also had an abysmal shooting performance in G3 of 35% overall and 23% from 3. The Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami in this one. The Heat aren’t intimidated playing on the road as they finished the regular season 24-17 SU with a +/- of +3.4PPG. The 76ers were slightly above average in terms of average margin of victory at +3.1PPG when playing at home this season. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-10 SU record, 10-5 SU away from home. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 4.

ASA play on 8* Memphis Grizzlies +2 over Golden State Warriors, 9:30 PM ET - This is a make-or-break game for the young Grizzlies, and we think they’ll respond with a home win over the Warriors. In fact, if they don’t win this game the series is over. Memphis showed great resilience in the opening round when they lost at home to Minnesota in the opener then bounced back with a 28-point win in Game 2 of that series. While Golden State hit several of their season averages and played as they were expected to, the Grizzlies did not, yet still kept the opener close. Memphis shot just 42% overall which was below their season average of 46.1%. Golden State did a great job on the boards in the opener but expect a swing in favor of Memphis in this category as they were the #1 offensive rebounding team in the NBA, Golden State was 10th. Defensively these two teams were essentially dead even in the regular season ranking 10th and 11th. Memphis was very good off a loss this season with a 20-9 SU overall record, 12-4 SU at home off a loss. The Grizzlies are also 8-3 ATS as a home dog this season with a +/- of +1.5PPG. It’s going to be another close game, but we like the home team to break through with a “W”.

#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON Milwaukee -1.5 Runs over Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - Rather than lay in the -230 range with the Brewers here, we can lay 1.5 runs at a solid value of +100. The Brewers offense has been back and forth for much of the season but they’ve been pretty consistent at home averaging almost 5 RPG. In their 7 home wins this season they’ve averaged 6 RPG. We expect the Milwaukee offense to play well here vs Cincy starter Mahle who has allowed 16 ER’s in his last 17.1 innings spanning 4 starts – all losses for the Reds. If Mahle continues to struggle, there is literally no relief for Cincinnati. The Reds bullpen owns the 3rd highest ERA, 3rd highest WHIP and has walked the 2nd most batters in the Majors. Cincy has allowed at least 4 runs in 16 of their last 18 games and that will most likely be enough for Milwaukee to cover -1.5 here. That’s because the Brewers send ace Woodruff to the mound and he is coming off a poor start so we look for a bounce back. He’s also been outstanding at home not allowing a single earned run in 2 starts this season. He is backed by a solid bullpen and the Brewers pitching staff as a whole is rolling right now allowing 2 runs or less in 5 straight games. That’s not great for a Cincinnati team that ranks 30th (last) in OPS, 29th in batting average, 28th in RPG and strikes out a lot. The Reds have won a grand total of ONE of their last 18 games and all but one of those losses have come by at least 2 runs. We like Milwaukee to win this game by 2 runs or more.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - Let’s not over-react to Game 1 of this series and predict the Bucks are winning this series. Did the Bucks play extremely well in the opener, or did Boston play that poorly? We feel it was the latter and the Celtics under-performed. Don’t forget Boston is 30-7 SU their last thirty-seven games and were the best team in the NBA the second half of the season. In Game 1, the Celtics really struggled, shooting only 33.3% from the field, which is WELL below their season average of 46.6%. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were especially bad, shooting 32.3%, and combining for just 33-points. In the four games against the Nets those two combined to average 52-points per game. For the season the Celtics were 30-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.4PPG which was the 5th best average MOV in the NBA this season. When coming off a loss the Celtics were 20-12 SU on the year with a +/- of +6.3PPG, 10-5 SU at home. Granted, Milwaukee was very good on the road this season at 27-17 SU but given the circumstances of: no Khris Middleton and his 20PPG average, along with Boston in a must-win situation, we have to lay the points here.

ASA top play on: Phoenix Suns 5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10 PM ET - We felt going into the Playoffs that the Suns were the team to beat. In this opening series game we like them to flex their muscle at home and produce a double-digit win over the Mavs. Dallas is 23-18 SU on the road this season with a +/- of +.03 which is clearly respectable. The Phoenix Suns though were 32-9 SU at home this season with the 4th best average Margin of Victory of +8.9PPG. In the two regular season meetings in Phoenix the Suns were favored by -8 and -8.5 points so we are getting slight value with them here in this matchup. Phoenix swept the 3-game season series with all three wins coming by 7 or more points. Defensively these teams are eerily similar to each other ranking 3rd and 6th in defensive efficiency but offensively the Suns hold a big advantage with the 5th best OEFF rating compared to the Mavs 14th. Dallas ranks 18th and 19th in overall FG% and 3PT% while the Suns are the best overall shooting team in the NBA and rank 9th in 3-point percentage. The Mavericks don’t rebound the ball well with the 24th ranked offensive rebounding unit in the league so second chances are going to be hard to come by. Phoenix wins this game big.

#923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line over Kansas City, Saturday at 8 PM ET - In case you haven’t noticed, the Yankees are tearing the cover off the ball as of late. They have scored at least 10 runs in 4 of their last 5 games including last night’s 12-2 win over KC. They have won 9 of their last 10 games and 8 of those wins have come by at least 2 runs. They rank #1 in MLB in HR’s per 9 innings at 1.44 and they are in the top 7 in batting average, RPG, and OPS. Tonight they face Hernandez who is on the mound for the Royals. He has allowed 10 ER’s this season in just 14 innings and his strikeout to walk ratio is bad at 1 to 1. His WHIP (walks + hits per inning) is the 2nd highest on the board of starting pitchers today at 1.79. We don’t expect the Yankees offense to slow down today. On the other side, NY will send Gerrit Cole to the mound who has a solid ERA of 4.00 but he’s actually pitched better than that this season with an xERA (expected ERA) of 3.74 and an xFIP of 3.50. He is facing a KC lineup that ranks 26th in scoring, 27th in team batting average, 27th in OPS, and 25th in HR’s per 9 innings. The Royals started the season winning 5 of their first 10 games but have since gone 2-6 their last 8 and they have been outscored 44 to 27 in those 8 games. We are getting the better starting pitcher, the much better offense, and we’ll lay -1.5 runs (-110) in this one.

#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto -1.5 Runs +110 over Boston, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Boston’s Nick Pivetta is on the mound in this game and he has been downright terrible this year. He faced the Blue Jays at Fenway Park last week and lost that game 6-1 allowing 11 baserunners in just 4 innings (allowed 5 ER’s). For the season Pivetta’s ERA is 10.80 but he’s actually pitched worse than that as his xERA (expected ERA) is over 15.00! He is walking an average of 7 per 9 innings and allowing a whopping 3.09 HR’s per 9 innings. That’s a problem here vs a Toronto team that leads the Majors with 22 HR’s on the season. Opponents have averaged 6 RPG this year in games started by Pivetta. That’ll be a problem here as Boston is facing a pitcher who is allowing next to nothing this season. When facing the Sox last week, tonight’s starter Kevin Gausman, gave up just 1 ER and 8 strikeouts in 8 innings on the mound. He is averaging 10.6 strikeouts per 9 innings and hasn’t walked a single batter this season. Gausman’s ERA is just 2.89 on the season but he’s actually been a bit unlucky so to speak with a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) allowed of .416 (defense & luck have a lot to do with a high BABIP against). He’s facing a Boston offense that has been struggling to say the least. The Red Sox have scored 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Jays have played 7 homes games this year and averaged 5.6 RPG in those contests. Laying the 1.5 runs with Toronto and getting plus money in that instance (+110) is a solid value in our opinion.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat –6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET Tuesday - If you read our Efficiency Champions article you know we talked about the Heat being one of just five teams that historically, fall into a category that can win it all in 2022. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Heat's defense has been even better in this series by holding the Hawks to 1.030PPP which is the second-best number in the postseason behind the Bucks. Miami has held Hawks All-Star guard Trae Young to a pair of his worst offensive showings all season long. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%! Miami was 29-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG during the regular season and have won both home games versus the Hawks by double-digits in this series. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG during the reg ssn. Miami has covered 7 of the last eight on this court against the Hawks.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - Much has been made of Kevin Durant and his struggles in this series, but that is about to change here. Statistically, we are betting things return to normal for KD back in the friendly confines of Brooklyn. Durant shot just 9 of 24, 1 of 5 from 3 in Game 1. He then struggled in Game 2 by going 4 of 17 from the field and 1 of 2 from Deep. On the season he’s a 51.8% shooter from the filed and 38.3% from beyond the arc. Let’s also consider the Nets have average 1.160-points per possession in the two games even with his shooting woes. Boston has played extremely well in the first two games but now go on the road and face a veteran team in a must win situation. Don’t be misled by the Nets home numbers this season as Kyrie missed most of the home games due to Covid mandates. Brooklyn did go 7-2 SU their last nine home games and every one of those wins came by 5 or more points. We are banking Kyrie and KD will make a series of this yet and it has to start here. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +3 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Bucks look like the Playoff Bucks from a year ago where teams have made adjustments to stop their offensive flow, but coach Bud doesn’t make any counter moves. Now the Bucks need to find a way to win without their second-best scorer Khris Middleton who is out with a knee injury. The Bulls struggled in the opener managing just 86-points in Game 1 on 32.3% shooting. In Game 2 the Bulls found a rhythm on offense adn shot 49.4% from the field. After struggling in Game 1, DeMar DeRozan bounced back in Game 2 by hitting 16 of 31 (51.6%) and scored a career playoff-high 41 points. In Game 1, the Bulls' “Big 3” of DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine went 21 of 71 (29.6%) from the field. In Game 2 those three players were 33 of 62 (53.2%). Milwaukee is going to miss Middleton’s scoring and we don’t see anyone stepping up to fill the void. In Game 1 it wasn’t a case of the Bucks playing great, as we touched on, the Bulls couldn’t buy a basket. Milwaukee won a close game with Middleton going 5 of 20 from the field for 11-points. Chicago shot 48.5% at home this season and the atmosphere/energy will be high tonight in Game 3. The Bulls were 27-14 SU at home in the regular season with a +/- of +2.4PPG. Grab the points with the home dog.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +10 at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:30 PM ET - We are betting Game 2 is going to be a dog fight and we like the double-digits with the Bulls. Game 1 of this series was ugly to say the least. The Bucks averaged .93-points per possession in the opener, the Bulls .85PPP. Those numbers were well below both teams' season averages of 1.14PPP (Bucks) and 1.12PPP (Bulls). The Bulls had an especially bad shooting night at 32% which is WELL below their season average of 48% which was the 3rd best shooting percentage in the NBA this season. Chicago also hit 36.9% from beyond the arc in the regular season but hit just 7 of 37 from deep or 19%. The Bucks didn’t shoot overly well either but not nearly as bad as Chicago. The Bucks were one of the worst home favorites in the NBA this season and their +/- at home wasn’t great at +4.2PPG which is down from +8.9PPG a year ago. Milwaukee was 14-24 ATS at home laying points this season with an average margin of victory in those games of +4.9PPG. Consider this, the Bulls have been double-digit dogs just two times this season and they are 2-0 ATS. Chicago has covered 8 of the last eleven here and will keep this game close throughout.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves. Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - It’s do-or-die here for the Grizzlies after the opening series loss at home in Game 1. The Grizzlies didn’t look interested from the opening tip and thought they were going to cruise to a victory. The Wolves started hot, gained confidence, and played well throughout. We don’t see Minnesota shooting 50% in Game 2 or outrebounding the Grizzlies by a +11 margin. Minny shot well above their season average from beyond the arc, Memphis shot well below. Memphis is one of only 5 teams in the entire NBA that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they own the 4th best efficiency differential in the league. The Grizzlies have the second-best home +/- in the league at +9.2PPG to go along with their 31-11 SU home record. As a home favorite the Grizz are 19-12 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +11.6PPG. The Wolves were 21-21 SU away from home this season with a +/- of plus +0.2PPG. Minnesota had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season but were 25th in DEFF allowing 1.161-points per possession. The Wolves are not a great shooting team averaging 45.7% from the field which is 22nd in the NBA. They’ll have a tough time scoring against a Grizzlies team that allowed the 12th fewest points in the league, held foes to 45.5% (10th) and 34.9% from beyond the arc (11th). The glaring difference between these two is rebounding as the Grizzlies are 1st in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, 7th in defense. Minnesota (who isn’t a great shooting team) ranks 16th in offensive rebounding, 23rd in defensive. Memphis is 10-4 SU at home off a loss this season.

ASA play on 8* Miami Heat -7 vs Atlanta Hawks, Tuesday 7:30 PM ET - Game 1 was a Heat blowout from start to finish. Miami held Trae Young to 1 of 12 field goals for the night, while Duncan Robinson made 8 of his 9 3-point attempts. We don’t see a lot changing in Game 2 as the Heat have multiple weapons on offense while the Hawks are limited beyond Young. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%. Miami was 30-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. Miami has covered 6 of the last seven here against the Hawks.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -5 @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - I am going contrarian here as the numbers tell us its not time to use the Zig-Zag theory in this series. The Jazz got off to a slow start in Game 1 with an offensive efficiency rating or .91 in the 1st quarter which is well below their season average of 1.160PPP. For the game the Jazz shot 43% as a team overall and 32% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly lower than their season averages of 47.1% and 36% which both rank in the top 11 of the NBA. Utah has had some issues with closing out games recently but the confidence gained in the opener should carry over here. Dallas averaged 1.010PPP in Game 1 which is lower than their season statistics but it’s still higher than anticipated with the absence of Luka Doncic. The Mavs will struggle to score again in this contest as Brunson and Dinwiddie can’t carry a team like Luka does. As we mentioned previously, the Jazz are one of five teams with offensive and defensive efficiency numbers good enough to win it all this year. Back them here as a short favorite.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 1 PM ET Sunday - If you read our Efficiency Champions article you know we talked about the Heat being one of just five teams that historically, fall into a category that can win it all in 2022. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Heat put up those impressive statistics with a roster that was hit harder than most with Covid issues. The Hawks have won two emotional games in the play-in contest and will have a hard time getting up for a third big game in a row. Not to mention they lost their starting center Capela versus the Cavs. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%. These two teams met on April 8th in a meaningless game for the Heat (had sown up the #1 seed) and a purposeful game for Atlanta, yet the Heat won by 4-points. This time around it’s going to be much worse, and we call for a BLOWOUT! Miami was 29-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. Miami has covered 5 of the last six here against the Hawks.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves. Sat 3:30 PM ET - We’re not sure everyone fully realizes just how good this Grizzlies team is and we feel they could make a serious run in the West. Memphis is one of only 5 teams in the entire NBA that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they own the 4th best efficiency differential in the league. The Grizzlies have the second-best home +/- in the league at +9.2PPG to go along with their 31-10 SU home record. As a home favorite the Grizz are 19-11 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +11.6PPG. Minnesota is coming off a big home win over the Clippers and celebrated like they won the NBA Finals and we expect a letdown here. The Wolves were 20-21 SU away from home this season with a +/- of plus +0.2PPG. Minnesota had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season but were 25th in DEFF allowing 1.161-points per possession. The Wolves are not a great shooting team averaging 45.7% from the field which is 22nd in the NBA. They’ll have a tough time scoring against a Grizzlies team that allowed the 12th fewest points in the league, held foes to 45.5% (10th) and 34.9% from beyond the arc (11th). The glaring difference between these two is rebounding as the Grizzlies are 1st in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, 7th in defense. Minnesota (who isn’t a great shooting team) ranks 16th in offensive rebounding, 23rd in defensive. Memphis is 10-3 SU at home off a loss this season and the home team has won all four meetings between these two teams this season by an average of 16PPG.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3.5 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 10 PM ET - We like this situation for several reasons. First the win/loss results of each teams play-in games with the Clippers home off a loss and the Pelicans on the road off a win. Despite not having their two best players for portions of the season (Leonard has been out all year) the Clippers own a 25-16 SU record at home this season with a +/- of +2.5PPG. Again, despite injuries the Clippers are a respectable 22-19 SU off a loss this season, 11-8 SU at home in that situation. L.A. has played well in Paul George’s return going 7-2 SU their last nine games allowing 109 or less points defensively in 5 straight games. The Clippers hold a decisive advantage over the Pelicans defensively with a unit that ranks 11th in PPG allowed, 6th in FG% defense and 7th in 3-point percentage. Comparatively, the Pelicans rank 13th in points allowed, 24th in opponents FG% and 26th defending the 3-point line. Offensively these two teams are similar and we would even lean towards the Clippers on that end of the floor with the return of George and Powell. Both teams rank in the low 20’s in scoring and overall FG% but the Clippers are by far the better 3-point shooting team at 37.4% compared to the Pels 33.2%. We like the Clippers who have covered 5 of their last six as a Chalk, against a Pelicans teams that is 1-5 ATS their last six against a team with an above .500 record.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5 over San Antonio Spurs, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have played really well since they traded for CJ McCollum shortly before the All-Star break. Since the break the Pelicans are just 13-10 SU but they have the 6th best average point differential in the league at +4.7PPG. In that same time frame, they own the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings (1.181PPP) and defensive efficiency rating (1.133PPP) and they did that with Brandon Ingram missing several games. The young Spurs have played well also but they are hovering around league average in both OEFF and DEFF for the season. For the year the Spurs are 18-23 SU on the road but do own a +/- of +0.4PPG. This game comes down to the veteran leadership of McCollum, Ingram and Valanciunas who are better than the top 3 for the Spurs. New Orleans by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 vs LA Clippers, Tuesday 9:30 PM ET - Granted the Clippers recently got Paul George back and Norman Powell but the Timberwolves have been the better team all season long. Remember we predicted the Wolves would go over their win total this season and we will continue to back them here. Karl Anthony Towns has been outstanding this season averaging 24.6PPG and 9.8 rebounds per game along with 1.1 blocks and 3.6 assists per game. The Clippers have won 5 straight games but those wins need to be taken with a grain of salt. They beat two horrible teams in the Thunder and Kings that were tanking. Phoenix was off a big win the night before against the Lakers and were locked into the #1 seed. The game before they beat the #9 seed Pelicans and prior to that they beat a Bucks team that sat their starters. So don’t be fooled by that current streak. Minnesota was pretty much settled into their playoff position and were focused on staying healthy and fresh for the postseason. The Wolves are far superior offensively ranking 8th in offensive efficiency compared to the Clippers who rank 24th. Defensively the Clippers hold an advantage ranking 8th in DEFF but the gap isn’t as wide as you’d think with the Wolves 14th. Minnesota is much better at home defensively allowing 1.074-points per possession compared to their season PPP allowed of 1.118PPP. Minny is 26-15 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5PPG. The Clippers are 17-24 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.4PPG which is 19th in the NBA. Throw out history here and simply bet the team that is currently better. Bet Minnesota!

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Warriors still have some incentive to win here as they lock up the #3 seed in the West with a win. The Pelicans are locked into the 9 seed and will host San Antonio in a play-in game. Both teams played last night but the Pelicans will be playing their 3rd game in four days and are in their 6th game in a 10-day span and rest right now is more important than anything. New Orleans will give their bench players (which isn’t good to begin with, 8th worst in bench scoring) extended playing time here. The Warriors will play starters less in this game, but they have a bench that has produced the 11th most points per game in the NBA. In general, when playing unrested the Pels are 3-11 SU with an average +/- of -6.4PPG while the Warriors are 9-5 SU +4.5PPG. New Orleans ranks in the 20’s in most key defensive categories, the Warriors rank top 5. Offensively it isn’t close either as the Pels are 21st in scoring, 21st in 3PT% and 27th in 3PT%. Golden State is 15th in scoring, 12th in FG% and 9th in 3PT%. This is a short number and we’ll lay it with the road team!

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -2 over Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams have incentive to play well here so we know what kind of effort to expect from both teams. Scheduling clearly favors the Bulls here who are rested but off three straight losses and looking to rebound off a blowout loss to the Celtics. Charlotte is coming off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in four days. The Hornets beat the Magic last night but had suffered a pair of crushing losses to the Heat and 76ers where they gave up 144-points in each. The Bulls three recent losses came against the Celtics, Bucks and Heat who are the three best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls have been solid at home all season long with a 27-13 SU record and a +/- of +2.8PPG. The Hornets are a respectable 20-20 SU away with a +/- of -1PPG. Charlotte is 1-13 SU on the season when playing without rest, 3-11 ATS minus nearly -6PPG. The Bulls have struggled covering numbers of late but this line is so low we’re basically just asking them to win. Easy call on the Bulls!

ASA top play on 9* LA Clippers +1.5 vs Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Here’s the deal. The Suns are locked into the #1 seed in the Western Conference and overall. They had lost two straight prior to facing the Lakers on Tuesday night. They started and played regulars against the Lakers as it gave them a chance to help eliminate L.A. so they don’t face them in the playoffs. But expect a night off for the regulars against the Clippers on Wednesday. The Clippers have been without Paul George for a large portion of the season but he’s back now and they are trying to build continuity before the start of the playoffs. These two teams are very similar defensively and rate two of the better defenses in the NBA. The Suns have much better offensive numbers, but the Clippers have missed Kawhi Leonard for the entire season and George for most of it. The Clippers have been home underdogs just 8 times since the start of the 2020 season and they’ve covered six of those games. This is a tough game to find statistical support for the Clippers ,but the situation couldn’t be better for the home team here. Grab the points!

#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -4 over North Carolina, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We’ve been on Carolina each of the past 2 games and cashed but feel this is where their run ends. First off the situation for the Tar Heels is really tough. It’s almost as if they just played their National Championship game 48 hours ago beating Duke in the biggest game ever in that storied rivalry. There was such hype and pressure on the players and coaches entering that game and then on top of that an intense back and forth game where no team led by more than 7 points. UNC has played with nearly zero bench and all 5 starters in that game topped 33 minutes. One of their top players Armando Bacot (22 rebounds) injured his ankle in the 2nd half, came back but was still noticeably limping which could be an issue tonight. He will play but the Heels may have to dig deeper in their bench at times tonight to get him a break. Especially since we expect an extremely fast paced game with both teams loving to play up tempo. KU rolled over Villanova 81-65 and were able to spread their minutes out a bit more with 7 guys playing double digit minutes. Kansas has played the tougher schedule (3rd highest SOS nationally) and they have the better offense (6th adjusted efficiency) and defense (17th adjusted efficiency). Their defense has been playing at the top of their game down the stretch holding 4 of their 5 opponents in the NCAA to 65 points or less and 8 of their last 9 to that same number or less. Even though we were on UNC on Saturday Duke (felt +4 was definitely too high) they were a bit lucky to win that game outright. Duke took 8 more shots but made just 22% of their 3’s (averaged 37%) and only 60% of their FT’s (averaged 74%). We felt the Devils shooting overall would regress in that game but didn’t expect 5 of 22 from deep. The Jayhawks were more than comfortable playing in this huge venue on Saturday making 54% of their shots and 77% of their FT’s vs a very good Nova defense. They most likely won’t shoot those percentages tonight but if they do it will be a runaway. Even if they regress more toward their averages in this one, they still win and cover this game in our opinion. The last 15 years the winner of the National Championship game has had a margin of at least +6 points 12 times. We like Kansas to get that win tonight.

#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON North Carolina +4.5 over Duke, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET - The way these 2 teams are playing at the moment we have them rated almost dead even. This number says that Duke is 4 points better on a neutral court which we disagree with. It could be argued that UNC is actually playing better right now. In the NCAA they beat Marquette by 30+ points, beat #1 seed Baylor by 7 in a game UNC led by 25 points midway through the 2nd half, beat a very good UCLA team that was in the Final 4 last year by 7, and then crushed a red hot St Peter’s team that had beaten Kentucky, Murray State, and Purdue leading up to that game. Duke struggled with Michigan State (7th rated team in the Big 10) trailing late and were down much of the game vs Texas Tech and won a tight one. The Heels have had more clean wins so to speak in this tourney vs teams that have an average rank of 42 in Ken Pom ratings compared to Duke’s opponents who have an average rank of 56. UNC is 4-0 ATS in the Big Dance covering by an average of 15 PPG while Duke is 3-1 ATS covering by an average of 2.5 PPG. The Devils have been shooting absolute lights out and we just don’t see that continuing here in New Orleans Superdome, a huge venue. They have taken 36 fewer shots than their opponents in the NCAA tourney but they’ve topped 50% from the field in every game and hit a ridiculous 54% for the entire tourney. Duke is a very good shooting team (48%) but if they don’t shoot lights out in every game so far they most likely aren’t here right now. The Heels have shot 10% points lower in the tourney (44%) and they’ve pretty much dominated every team they’ve played despite that. These two rivals split their 2 meetings this year with each winning on the other’s home court. The most recent was the regular season finale at Duke where the Devils had all the reason in the world to win that game sending Coach K out with a win in his final home game. UNC dominated and won by 13 in arguably the toughest atmosphere of the season in college hoops. Speaking of currently being undervalued, the Tar Heels have won 4 in a row outright as a dog winning @ VaTech, @ Duke, and beating Baylor and UCLA in the Dance. Lastly, much more pressure on Duke here to win this thing for Coach K and UNC is sort of playing with house money making it to the Final 4 as an 8 seed. We’ll take the points in a game we feel is dead even.

#893 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -2.5 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with FSU as a 5 point chalk which is exactly where we had the game power rated. It has since dropped so we’ll take the value with the road team. Fresno got to this Championship game by rolling over a solid Southern Utah team on Monday by 19 points and holding them to just 48 points. CC won @ South Alabama by 1 point in OT but is wasn’t a full strength opponent. South Alabama played that game without their 2 leading scorers, Manning and Chandler, who combine to average 31 PPG, 7 RPG, and 6 APG. Even with that the Chanticleers needed a 3 pointer with only a few seconds remaining to send the game to OT where the won. If USA was at full strength, we’re pretty confident in saying CC wouldn’t even be here. They are playing this game at home, however they lost 6 games at home this season including 5 conference games (Sun Belt) so it’s not a huge advantage. If we use the Ken Pom ratings here, Fresno will be the highest rated team Coastal has played all season. Not one Sun Belt team ranked inside the top 130 and Fresno is currently ranked 78th. FSU has the much better overall numbers with a points per possession differential of +10.7 per 100 possessions compared to Coastal which is +1.0 in the same category. Consider that and the fact that Fresno played the MUCH tougher schedule (ranked 100 spots higher in SOS). The Bulldogs rank 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 3rd nationally in PPG allowed at 58. Coastal Carolina has faced ONE top 100 defense all season (adjusted efficiency) so this will be a huge step up in what they are used to seeing. CC is also loose with the ball (307th in TO %) which will be an issue vs the best defense they’ve faced this season. Lastly, on top of all that, Fresno will have the best player on the floor in 7-foot Orlando Robinson (19 PPG, 8 RPG) who Ken Pom has rated as the 7th best player in the country. We don’t have to worry about motivation here. This is the Basketball Classic Championship game so we expect both teams to bring their A game. Fresno’s best is better than Coastal’s best so we’ll lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:40 PM ET - This is a very big game for both teams as they jockey for better playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs currently hold the 7th spot in the East, the Hawks are 10th but only 3 games separate the two teams. The Cavs are struggling right now with a 1-4 SU record their last five games and injuries have a lot to do with it. Cleveland has been without All-Star Jarrett Allen and now are playing without Evan Mobley. Those two are the Cavs best two frontline players and its showed in recent games as they’ve been outscored by 68-points in the paint the past three games. Atlanta has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last five and are making a strong late season push. The Hawks have won 8 of their last nine home games and one of those wins came against this same Cavs team 124-116. The Cavs had Mobley for that game and he grabbed 10 rebounds and scored 22-points. The Hawks have a +5.8PPG average MOV at home this season, while the Cavs have a negative differential in their last five games of -6PPG. The healthy Hawks get a big home win here.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +3 at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - Both teams are coming off opposite results with the Raptors coming off a big OT win over the Celtics, while the Timberwolves are off a bad loss in Boston. The Wolves have lost 3 of their last four games but those beats came against the Celtics, Mavericks and Suns. Minnesota is 19-8 SU their last 27 games and a team nobody wants to face in the Western Conference playoffs. Toronto is 9-2 SU their last eleven games which has me wondering why they are such a low home favorite here. The Wolves have the 10th best road margin of victory in the NBA at +.5PPG and they’ve covered 5 of their last six away from home. Minnesota is 16-17 SU off a loss but have covered 8 of their last nine in that situation. Toronto is just 2-6 ATS their last eight as a home favorite and really struggled beating a Celtics team the other night that was without Tatum, Brown, Williams and Horford. Grab the points with Minnesota.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs -6.5 vs. Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - Obviously, the Spurs have everything to play for right now as they still have a shot at getting into the post season. With just 20 wins the Rockets season is essentially done. The line on this game opened -5.5 points and was immediately bet up by the Sharps. There is still value and we’ll take the road favorite. The Spurs are significantly better offensively than the Rockets who rank 19th in scoring, 22nd in FG%, 21st in 3-point% and 30th in rebounding. The Spurs rank 8th in scoring, 12th in shooting and 17th in 3-point% with the 9th best offensive rebounding average in the league. Defensively the Spurs aren’t great ranking mid-20’s in most key defensive categories but the Rockets are far worse ranking 30th in points allowed and opponents FG%. San Antonio has won 3 straight and 4 of five. Houston has won 2 in a row but both were against Portland. The Rockets are just 1-4 SU their last five home games and they have the 3rd worst +/- at home in the NBA at minus -6.8PPG. The Spurs have drubbed this Rockets team in the two most recent meetings by 30 and 25-points respectively. Lay the points!

#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -8 over St Peters, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We took Purdue over St Peters on Friday night and lost but the value here on UNC is simply too good to pass up. Purdue was just favored by 13 points over the Peacocks on Friday and now UNC is laying only in the -8 or -8.5 range? We have North Carolina and Purdue power rated almost dead even but the line is 5 points lower than just 2 days ago? St Peter’s was also an 18 point dog vs Kentucky just last week! We realize they are playing well and quite frankly WAY above their heads when compared to their season numbers but this adjustment is too much. We realize STP is playing well but what about the Heels? They’ve won 9 of their last 10 and many convincingly. They won by double digits @ Duke to close out the regular season and beat UVA by 20 in the ACC tourney. Once UNC hit the Dance they’ve beaten Marquette by 32, #1 seed Baylor by 7 in a game they led by 25 points midway through the 2nd half, and then just beat a very good UCLA team that was in the Final 4 last year by 7. UNC will cream St Peter’s on the boards just as Purdue did (+16 rebound margin). The Boilers problem on Friday were turnovers (23% TO rate) and poor 3 point shooting (23%). We expect UNC to handle the pressure much better than Purdue and they’ve been hot from 3 hitting just over 37% in the tourney. The Peacocks still remain by far the worst offensive team left in the tourney. They rank 216th in adjusted efficiency (next worst team in Elite eight ranks 53rd) and they rank 253rd in eFG%. They will struggle to score vs UNC’s length inside so they’ll need to be red hot from deep to stay in this game. We love the STP story and they are playing very well but this is a tough match up vs a highly talented team playing at their peak level right now. That along with the value in the number here have us on North Carolina.

#641 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +4 over Duke, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET - Duke was a bit fortunate with their win over Texas Tech on Thursday. They won 78-73 which was their largest lead of the entire game. The Blue Devils shot 52% from the field and made 10 more FT’s and still only led for 7 minutes from the 7:00 minute mark of the first half through the end of the game (final 27 minutes of game time). In their previous game Duke shot 57% vs Michigan State and made 5 more FT’s yet trailed late before pulling out a win. So they shot lights out both games yet trailed both with under 3:00 minutes remaining. The Arkansas defense has been great in this tourney including holding the #1 offense in America (Gonzaga) to just 68 points on 38% shooting on Thursday. Nothing new for the Razors as they rank 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. We have to expect with Duke playing another top notch defense their offensive shooting percentage stays below 50% here which should make this game tight. It could be argued that since mid January, the Razorbacks have played as well as anyone in the country. They have won 18 of their last 21 games and 2 of those losses have come by 4 points or less. 10 of those 18 wins came vs NCAA tourney teams. Duke was struggling entering this tourney losing their home finale vs UNC and then losing in the ACC tourney vs Va Tech and as we said they were close to losing each of their last 2 games. Arkansas just beat who most consider the best team in the country despite not playing great offensively. They made just 40% of the shots, 28% of their 3’s and made 6 fewer FT’s than the Zags. That’s how well their defense has been playing. They have been an underdog 5 times this season and covered all 5 by an average of almost 9 PPG. We expect this to be close throughout and we have to take the points in this one.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +5 vs. New Orleans Pelicans, 5 PM ET - This is a quick turnaround revenge game for the Spurs who were blown out by the Pelicans on March 18th, 91-124. Coach Popp was ejected in the second quarter after the Spurs scored just 10-points in the 1st. This game has huge playoff implications as both are fighting to stay in the top 10 in the West. After the loss to the Pels the Spurs bounced back with a win over the Warriors then blew out the Blazers. The Pelicans are off a big home win over the Bulls but are 1-3 SU their last four at home. New Orleans is 17-20 SU at home and below average in +/- of +1.1PPG. San Antonio is 15-21 SU on the road but they are 15th in the league in average MOV at +0.2PPG. The Spurs have covered 6 straight in New Orleans and are 7-1 ATS the last eight meetings overall. Grab the points.

#635 ASA PLAY ON 8* Providence +7.5 over Kansas, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We think Kansas is a flawed #1 seed. They are very good offensively but on defense they are just OK for a team looking to win a National Title. They rank outside the top 25 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. That being said, we loved their situation last week facing a Creighton team that was without 2 of their top 3 players including 7 foot center Kalkbrenner who was injured in the Jays opening round NCAA game. That left a huge hole in the middle both offensively and defensively for Creighton and forced an already ultra thin team to start a player who usually plays limited minutes (Feazell) for the first time this season. Even with all of those advantages the Jayhawks struggled to get the win never leading by double digits. Providence is a tough, veteran group (5 senior starters) that can absolutely give Kansas a run here. The analytics guys have been pounding on Providence all year as being lucky and winning too many close games. Much of that is true, however the fact is they know how to win the close games and they’ve done it on a regular basis. They won the Big East regular season and have only 5 losses all season, 2 of which were down to the wire games vs a #2 seed Villanova. The Friar defense has played fantastic in the Dance completely shutting down a South Dakota State offense that was the #1 three point shooting team in the nation. The Jackrabbits scored just 57 points in that game, their lowest total of the season. Following that win they faced a red hot Richmond team who had won 5 straight taking out Dayton, Davidson in the A10 tourney and Iowa in the NCAA. Providence crushed the Spiders by 28 holding them to 51 points. They are a slow paced team (283rd in adjusted tempo) that will make this a half court game. KU likes to speed the game up but will have a problem here doing that unless they get out to a huge lead which we do not expect. When facing the slower paced teams in the Big 12, Kansas had some trouble. The 4 slowest paced teams in the Big 12 were Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, and Iowa State. The Jayhawks were 7-2 SU vs those teams, however all but one of those wins were decided by single digits. We expect a tight game in this one and we’ll take the generous points.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -3.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - We love to back elite NBA teams when they are off embarrassing losses which is the case here for Utah. The Jazz are coming off a humbling 97-125 loss against the Celtics on Wednesday night and should rebound here with a big effort. After facing the #1 ranked defense in the NBA the Jazz step down here to face a Charlotte team that is 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.135-points per possession. Utah is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA and they couldn’t buy a basket from deep against the Celtics but should have success here versus a Hornets D that allows 35.9% which is 21st in the league. Utah ranks top 7 in the NBA in points scored, FG% offense, 3-PT% and rebounding. They are also top 11 defensively in those same categories. While the Hornets are top 13 in most key offensive categories, they rank 28th in points allowed 19th in FG% D, 21st in 3-PT% and 29th in defensive rebounding. Charlotte has won 5 of their last six games but are coming off a loss to the Knicks. Charlotte doesn’t possess a great home court advantage which is why they are 19-18 SU at home with a below average +/- of +0.4PPG. We like the bounce back factor with the Jazz in this one.

#634 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -12.5 over St Peters, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - Here is the end of the line for the Peacocks. The line may seem a bit high at 12.5 but we’re actually getting some value on Purdue based on St Peters Cinderella run. The Peacocks faced Kentucky to open the NCAA tournament and they were 18 point underdogs in that game. Our power ratings would have UK favored by just 2 over Purdue on a neutral court so that tells us if this game was played last week we were probably going to see the Boilers as a 15 or 16 point favorite. STP’s offense has been below average all season long and played well above their expectations in the first 2 games of the NCAA. They averaged 1.13 and 1.09 PPP in those two wins over Kentucky and Murray State but their season average vs subpar competition for the most part was just 1.00 PPP. Purdue will be the best offense the Peacocks have faced this season. The Boilers rank 2nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, 3rd in 2 point FG%, 3rd in 3 point FG%, and 7th in scoring at 80 PPG. To put that in perspective, the MAAC, St Peter’s conference, has a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 170 in offensive efficiency. That was Iona who beat the Peacocks both times they met this season. STP doesn’t have the size to hang in this game. Purdue is huge. They have 2 very good inside threats in 7 foot 4 Ivey and 6 foot 10 Williams. STP’s biggest player in the regular rotation is 6 foot 8 he is a freshman. Purdue should dominate the interior which will open up their 3 point shooters which are deadly (39% as a team). They should also completely control the boards on both ends limiting St Peter’s to one shot on the vast majority of possessions while gathering offensive boards to give themselves extra possessions as well. On top of that, St Peter’s fouls A LOT so Purdue should live at the FT line where they hit 71%. The Peacocks had their nice opening weekend but it ends here and Purdue runs away with this one.

#629 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -1 over Duke, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - We knew Tech would come out as a favorite in this game and we knew the masses would flock to Duke as a dog. There is a reason Texas Tech is favored. They are the better team and a bad match up for this young Blue Devil team. The Raiders are a veteran team that plays very physical which is a rough brand of basketball that Duke isn’t used to. TT ranks #1 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, they create TO’s on almost 24% of possessions, and they are a very good rebounding team. They have big advantages in all of those categories in this game. Duke’s offense thrives in transition but Tech will make this a half court game. Even if the Devils are able to get some up tempo at times, the Raiders are great at transition defense allowing the lowest eFG% in the country in transition (43%). TT is also fantastic defensively inside the arc allowing the 3rd lowest % of points from 2-point land. If Duke wins this game, it will be because they get red hot from outside the 3 point line. We’ll take our chances there as Tech is also very solid at defending the 3 allowing 31%. The Red Raider defense gets the accolades but their offense is solid and underrated. They rank 46th nationally in adjusted efficiency and they are fantastic as scoring inside the arc hitting 55% of their shots (22nd nationally) and scoring over 55% of their points from 2-point range (76th nationally). Duke’s defense has been shaky to say the least allowing 75 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. They’ve allowed at least 1.10 PPP in 6 of their last 8 games. To put that in perspective, Texas Tech allows 0.84 PPP adjusted efficiency on the season! The Devils haven’t faced a defense anywhere near this good since November (Gonzaga & Kentucky). There is not a single ACC defense ranked inside the top 40 in adjusted efficiency. Lots of pressure on this young team to get it done in Coach K’s final run. They couldn’t do it in their home finale getting rolled by UNC. They couldn’t do it in the ACC tourney getting smoked by Va Tech in the final. We don’t think they’re tough enough to get it done here and we’ll call for Texas Tech to move onto the Elite 8.

#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -13 over Youngstown State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - YSU has played the 2nd easiest schedule in the entire country this season. Fresno State will be just the 3rd top 100 team (per Ken Pom) that Youngstown has faced the entire season. The first 2 were vs West Virginia (30 point loss) and Penn State (16 point loss). We think the Penguins will have huge problems offensively in this game. Their overall offensive stats aren’t terrible as they rank 189th in efficiency. The problem with that is, they’ve faced a terrible set of defenses this year. YSU resides in the Horizon League which has ZERO top 100 defenses (efficiency wise) and ONE defense ranked inside the top 200. That means in their 22 conference games, 20 were vs defenses ranked lower than 200 in adjusted efficiency. Looking at the season as a whole, the Penguins faced 2 defenses this year (in 33 games) that were ranked inside the top 100. They scored 52 and 59 points in those games. Fresno State’s defense is very good ranking 3rd nationally allowing just 58 PPG and 33rd nationally in efficiency. On the other end of the court, FSU should have a field day vs YSU’s defense which ranks 311th in efficiency. To put that in perspective not ONE team in the Mountain West Conference has a defense that ranks 300 or lower. The only one that is close in San Jose State and Fresno won all 3 meetings with the Spartans have an average of 17.3 PPG scoring an average of 74 PPG in those games. That may not seem like a huge number but when your defense allows teams to score in the 50’s, getting to 70+ points gets Fresno in the “easy win” column. Fresno beat Eastern Washington in game 1 of this tourney by 9 points but they led by 18 with just 2 minutes remaining. YSU struggled with a bad Morgan State team (won by 5) that was missing 3 of their top 6 scorers in that game. Long travel for a Youngstown team that will be overmatched here.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +5.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - This line is clearly higher than it should be because of the Celtics current hot streak. That makes it a great opportunity to sell high and buy low with Utah. We must acknowledge Boston’s 20-3 SU run and won’t pretend that it doesn’t exist, but this is a solid spot to fade them. Utah doesn’t have a great overall road record at 19-16 SU but they do own the 5th best average margin of victory at +3.3PPG. Boston has a 24-12 SU home record with a differential of +5.5PPG. These two teams own two of the best defenses in the NBA with the Jazz top 10 in points allowed FG% D and 3-point % D and rank #1 in rebounding. The Celtics are 1st in points allowed 1st in FG% D and 2nd in 3-point% but 14th in rebounding. Utah holds a huge advantage offensively with a unit that ranks top 6 in scoring, FG%, 3PT% and rebounding. In comparison the Celtics rank 16th or worse in the three main offensive categories and 5th in offensive rebounding. Utah is a solid 15-11 SU when coming off a loss, while the C’s are 8-14-1 ATS when off a win. In a few of their recent road games the Jazz have been favored over the Nets, Knicks and Mavericks and now they are getting an inflated number here. Will you be surprised in the Jazz win this outright? I won’t!

#611 ASA PLAY ON 8* Vanderbilt +4 over Xavier, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We have this game handicapped at dead even so we like the value with Vandy getting more than a full possession here. Xavier will most likely be without one of their top players Paul Scruggs who averages 12 PPG, 4 RPG, and 4 APG. He was injured in Sunday’s win over Florida and was in crutches following the game so the chance of him playing 48 hours later is slim to none. The Musketeers struggled in their NIT opener squeaking by Cleveland State despite the Vikings making just 1 three pointer in 12 attempts. After that win they faced a Florida team over the weekend that is in a bit of disarray with their coach leaving for Georgia just prior to the NIT tipping off. Vandy took care of a solid Belmont team and they topped Dayton, the 2nd best team in the A10 behind Davidson. The Commodores will have the best player on the floor in this game with Scotty Pippen Jr. He is coming off a 32 point performance vs a Dayton defense that was ranked 2nd in the A10 in efficiency. Vandy has been undervalued all season long as they continue to put up winning spread numbers. They have covered 8 straight as an underdog and their spread record on the season is a money making 22-13. Xavier is the opposite. After a very solid start they were terrible down the stretch losing 8 of their last 10 games before entering the NIT. They have 5 home losses on the season and they’ve covered just 4 of their last 15 as a favorite. Vanderbilt is better defensively, they create more turnovers, and they are the better 3 point shooting team. This one has the makings of an upset and we’ll grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 versus Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - We like the scenario here with the Bulls coming off a game last night and the Bucks coming off a horrible loss a few nights ago in Minnesota. There is value in this number. Earlier this month these two teams squared off in Chicago and the oddsmaker set a spread of Bucks -5.5-points. Now the Bucks are laying 6-points at home! Chicago has not faired well against the leagues elite teams and are currently 0-5 ATS their last five versus teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. On the season the Bulls are 4-18 SU against the top 10 teams in the league. The Bucks have been terrible as a home favorite this season, but they have covered 5 of their last six as a chalk. The Bucks have a +/- of 4.6PPG, the Bulls have a negative road differential of -2.9PPG. Given the circumstances and the fact the Bucks just laid a similar number in Chicago (and won by 6-points) we like them here by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -5.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET - The Hornets have been a “hot or cold” team all season long and right now they are currently “hot” with 4 straight wins and covers. Included in this four game stretch is a 142-120 win over the Pelicans as a -3.5-point favorite in New Orleans. The Pels did play without McCollum and Ingram in that game and will again be without Ingram their leading scorer here. New Orleans is coming off a road win yesterday in Atlanta and also playing their 3rd game in a four-day span. Last night saw their starters all get extended minutes and the bench is short the way it is. When playing without rest this season the Pels are 2-10 SU with an average loss margin of -8PPG. The Pelicans aren’t great off a win either with a 6-11 SU road record in that situation. The Hornets last four wins have all come by double digits and they own the 5th best average point differential in the NBA over the last five games. Charlotte has covered 6 straight as a favorite and they get a big 10+ point win in this one.

#828 ASA TOP PLAY ON Texas Tech -7.5 over Notre Dame, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - We lost going against ND on Friday vs a Bama team that looked lethargic and played a terrible game. On top of that, the Tide lost arguably their best player (Quinerly) just 3 minutes into the game. The Irish were able to outlast Alabama by shooting 54% for the game and 60% from 3 point land. They won’t get anywhere near those numbers in this game vs Texas Tech who has the #1 defensive team in the nation (adjusted efficiency). The Raiders are rested after destroying Montana State in round 1 and they are a very poor match up for the Irish. Tech is a dominant rebounding team that is very physical. That’s a problem for Notre Dame who is not a physical team, nor a good rebounding team, AND they are playing their 3rd game in 5 days including long travel (2,200 miles) after their first 4 in double OT win on Wednesday. We expect ND to have tired legs in this one which is one thing you absolutely don’t want when playing Texas Tech who will be up in the Irish shorts defensively the entire game. In their win over the Tide, Bama actually controlled the offensive boards and pushed Notre Dame into a 25% TO rate. Those 2 things led to 10 more shot attempts for the Crimson Tide but a poor shooting night after losing Quinerly was their downfall. If ND turned it over 25% of the time vs Bama (204th nationally in defensive TO %) they are in huge trouble here vs the Red Raiders who turn teams over 24% of the time (10th nationally). Between that and the big rebounding edge we expect here, Tech should create a lot of extra possessions. If ND doesn’t shoot lights out again, they are in trouble in this game. With tired legs and facing a great defense, we anticipate they won’t. It’s the end of the road for the Irish and we look for Tech to win this by double digits.

#797 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Mary’s +2.5 over UCLA, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - UCLA steps into this game after a physical, down to the wire defensive battle with Akron. The Bruins escaped with a 57-53 win in that game. The Bruins trailed for all but 3 minutes in the 2nd half of that game despite making 4 more three point shots and 4 more FT’s. St Mary’s should come in rested after their whitewashing of the Indiana Hoosiers (our Top Game on Thursday). The Gaels won by 29 points and they were able to spread out their minutes with 12 different players seeing court time. Thursday was St Mary’s first game since March 8th and they are facing a UCLA team playing their 5th game in 10 days. As we wrote on Thursday vs Indiana, the Gaels have size and defend the interior very well which is where UCLA likes to operate. They also won’t be dominated on the boards as St Mary’s ranks 3rd in the nation in defensive rebounding so very few extra possession off the boards for the Bruins. Both defenses are outstanding with STM ranking 9th nationally in efficiency and UCLA 14th. On offense both teams hit their 3 point attempts at 35% but the Gaels are better inside the arc and at the FT line where they make 76% as a team. We have these teams rated basically dead even. The strength of schedules were very close with UCLA a slight edge. Each team went 1-2 vs the #1 seed which resided in their respective conferences (Gonzaga & Arizona). STM was 7-4 SU vs tourney teams and UCLA was 6-4. Our power ratings have UCLA as a 1 point favorite so we’ll take the value on St Mary’s here.

#788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -5.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 5:15 PM ET - Michigan came from 15 down vs Colorado State on Thursday to pick up a first round win. They did so without starting PG Jones (11 PPG, 5 RPG, 5 APG) who is out with a concussion but it will be tough to compete in this one without him. He did not make the trip to Indy and they’re hoping he can play next week if Michigan makes it that far which we project they will not. The Wolverines shot over 50% vs CSU and the Rams made just 35% of their shots vs a Wolverine defense that hasn’t been great this year (11th in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency). Michigan also made 14 more FT’s in the game and those 2 things tell us this game should have been a blowout and it wasn’t. Now the Wolverines face a lock down UT defense that ranks 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. It’s a Vols team that is playing as well as anyone in the nation right now winning 13 of their last 14 with their only loss coming @ Arkansas by 6. In the SEC tourney Tennessee topped a top notch Kentucky team by 7 (led by 14 in the 2nd half) and then rolled a red hot A&M team by 15 in the final. While Michigan had a fairly tough opening round game vs CSU, they trailed at half and really only played 6 guys decent minutes, UT is rested after rolling Longwood by 30+ and played 8 guys double digit minutes. These 2 both played top 10 schedules this year but UT is +26 points per 100 possessions vs their opponents while Michigan is +16 pints per 100 possessions. Tennessee might just be the best team in the country right now. The much better D playing a less than 100% Michigan team is a take for us.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:10 PM ET - Yes, we know just how hot the Mavericks have been, but we like the situation to fade them here. Dallas is coming off a huge last second win over Brooklyn on Wednesday night and we expect a letdown here. Philly is coming off a win in Cleveland, but they didn’t play well so expect a rebound here back at home. The Mavs were recently a +6.5-point underdog at Boston which means this line is off by a few points. Philadelphia was a home favorite of -3.5-points two games ago at home against Denver who rates higher than the Mavs in our power index. The Mavs don’t have anyone that can match up with Joel Embiid who is scoring nearly 30PPG with 11.4 rebounds per game this season. This is a great opportunity to back a low home favorite that is underpriced given the circumstances.

#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON Alabama -3.5 over Notre Dame, Friday at 4:15 PM ET - Talk about a rough spot for ND. Not only did they play a double OT game on Wednesday that didn’t end until after midnight ET, they had to travel 2,200 miles to San Diego to play less than 40 hours later. The Irish basically played only 6 players with all 6 topping 33 minutes played and 3 players topping 40 minutes. Bama is ultra talented. They don’t always “show up” so to speak but they have potential future NBA players in Davison, Ellis, and Quinerly. When they are on, they are very good having beaten the likes of Gonzaga & Baylor (#1 seeds) along with Tennessee, Houston, Arkansas, LSU, and Miami FL, all NCAA tourney teams. We expect them to bring their “A” game now in the Big Dance. The Tide played the toughest schedule in the country per Ken Pom (ND 67th in schedule strength) and their PPP differential is better than the Irish despite that that (+18 points per 100 possessions to +14 for ND). Bama does struggle at times with TO’s but that shouldn’t hurt them here as the Irish are one of the worst in the nation (334th) at creating takeaways. Notre Dame is a solid shooting team but should have tired legs here vs an athletic defense that gives up just 0.98 PPP. The Irish beat just ONE team this season ranked inside the Ken Pom top 30 while Bama has 6 wins over teams in the top 20 per Ken Pom including 4 wins vs the top 10. Alabama, currently 25th, takes down the Irish on Friday.

#766 ASA PLAY ON 8* Purdue -16 over Yale, Friday at 2 PM ET - We feel this is one of the games in the first round that has absolute blowout potential. Yale wasn’t even the best team in the Ivy League this year but upset Princeton in the conference tourney to get here. The Bulldogs are ranked right around 150th by most power rating which would make them the worst team in the Big 10 by 10 to 15 spots behind Nebraska. Purdue faced the Huskers once this year and won 92-65. Yale hasn’t faced a top 100 team since mid December and they faced just 5 teams ranked inside the top 100 this season. The Bulldogs are 0-5 SU in those games losing by margins of 36, 22, 17, 14, and 8 points. Purdue will be the top team they’ve faced this year with the possible exception of Auburn who beat Yale by 22 points but led by 34 midway through the 2nd half. Yale is a smaller team that struggles on the boards and doesn’t defend inside very well ranking outside the top 150 in both mid range and near proximity defense. That’s a huge problem vs this Purdue offense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency, 4th in eFG%, 4th in 3 point FG%, and 11th in 2 point FG%. The Boilers should have a field day on offense and on the boards. Purdue’s achilles heel this year was their defense which ranked 99th nationally in efficiency. As “poor” as that might seem by Big 10 standards, that would rank as the #1 defense in the Ivy League! Yale ranks below 200th in both offensive efficiency and 3 point FG% so we don’t think they’ll do much offensive here. Purdue rolls up a big win here.

#748 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Mary’s -2.5 over Indiana, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET - Horrible spot here for IU. They played a physical grinder on Tuesday night vs Wyoming and a game that didn’t end until almost midnight ET. The Hoosiers pulled off the win to move on and then had to travel 2,300 miles to Portland and face a tough defensive St Mary’s team in a game that tips just 43 hours after IU beat Wyoming. On top of that, they were supposed to fly out to Portland at 1 AM and weren’t able to take off from Dayton until after 4 AM. They didn’t land in Portland until late morning on Wednesday and have to play in 36 hours. Indiana had some built in advantages on Tuesday include a huge home court advantage as the Dayton Arena (150 miles from Bloomington) that was filled with Hoosier fans. The Cowboys also turned the ball over almost 30% of the time leading to 16 more shot attempts for Indiana and they game still was undecided late. We were on IU in that game but this one is a whole different animal. St Mary’s is rested (off since March 8) and they play fantastic, physical defense. They rank 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency and they have size and defend the interior very well which is where IU needs to be able to score. The Hoosiers don’t have great shooting guards and they score only 25% of their points from the arc (318th nationally). Not only are the Gaels a top notch defensive team, they are the better shooting team as well. They also make almost 76% of the FT’s and rarely turn the ball over. St Mary’s is 1 of 3 teams this season to beat Gonzaga along with Bama & Duke. The Gaels also finished 3-2 vs WCC NCAA teams sweeping San Francisco and losing twice to the Zags. Really good situation for St Mary’s and we’ll lay the small price.

#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Providence -2 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 12:40 PM ET - SDSU has become a way too popular underdog in this game. We basically need the Friars to just win the game with the current number. Many have brought up the Friars “luck” on the season as they’ve won a number of close games. However, the fact is, they know how to win those games and they won the Big East regular season title with a 14-3 conference record. Their only regular season conference losses were @ Marquette and 2 losses to Villanova, a 2-seed in the Dance, by 2 & 5 points. South Dakota State won the Summit League title but that is a league without a single team, besides SDSU, ranked in the top 100. The Jackrabbits played only 4 top 100 teams all season long going 2-2 in those games beating Washington State & Bradley while losing to Bama & Missouri State. The last top 100 team SDSU faced was back on December 15th. Providence played 17 games vs top 100 teams with a record of 12-5 SU. SDSU’s offensive numbers are very good but let’s take into account they did not face a top 130 defense in conference play. The Summit League is known for poor defenses with 4 of their 10 teams ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency and 8 of the 10 outside the top 200. Providence will be the best defense they’ve faced since early December. The Friars played 9 games this season without either Reeves or Bynum, two of their best players, but are 100% healthy entering the tourney. They have a big size advantage inside and should control the glass in this game. The Friars can shoot it a little as well as they were the best 3-point shooting team in Big East play and they have one of the better big men in this tourney, Nate Watson (14 PPG, 6 RPG). With this line sitting not far from pick-em we’ll fade possibly the most popular dog in round one and side with Providence.

#696 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +1 over Notre Dame, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET - We have Rutgers rated as the better team here and as of this writing, we’re getting points. Rutgers played in the much tougher conference so they faced the tougher schedule (34th SOS for Rutgers / 68th SOS for Notre Dame). The Scarlet Knights were 6-6 this year in Quad 1 Games (Home vs top 30 NET teams + Neutral site vs top 50 teams + Away vs top 75 teams). Notre Dame was 2-8 in their Quad 1 games. If we throw in Quad 2 results as well, the Irish were only 4-9 in those games. Not impressive. Along those lines, Notre Dame had just 3 wins all season vs teams ranked in the top 75 on Ken Pom. Rutgers has 8 wins this season vs teams currently ranked in the top 75. That doesn’t tell the whole story as in fact all 8 of those wins came vs teams ranked in the top 40! The Irish rely very heavily on the 3 point shot which we don’t always love when playing at an unfamiliar venue. They score just 46% of their points inside the arc which is 311th nationally. Rutgers, on the other hand, scores nearly 58% of their points inside the arc and they are facing a ND defense that struggles to defend inside. In fact, the Irish have allowed their opponents to score 57% of their points from 2 point range which is 23rd most in the nation. We think Rutgers controls the inside and unless ND shoots lights out from deep, we’ll be OK here. ND played 2 Big 10 teams this year and lost by 10 vs Illinois and by 8 vs Indiana. Rutgers played 1 ACC team this season and beat Clemson by 10. The Scarlet Knights have been a money maker as a dog this season with an 11-5 ATS record and we like them to win this game

#709 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iona +6.5 over Florida, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - What an extremely tough situation for a Florida team facing a very solid opponent in Iona on Wednesday. First of all the Gators have to overcome the disappointment of not making the NCAA tourney for the first time since 2016. They were expecting to be there again this year and lost 5 of their last 8 games to take them out of consideration. Secondly, they just lost their coach on Sunday as Mike White accepted the head coaching job at SEC rival Georgia. Assistant coach, Al Pinkins, who has never been a head coach will take this team over for their NIT game/games. That’s a lot of emotional baggage, so to speak, to overcome in a short time. They will be facing an Iona team, let by one of the top coaches in CBB history, Rick Pitino so a strong coaching edge to the Gaels in this game. They are a veteran team with 4 senior starters, that played one of the tougher low major schedules in the country. Iona finished 25-7 including a win over Alabama who beat Florida by 13 on the road in their only meeting this season. They were the best team in the MAAC all season long but were upset by Rider 71-70 in the conference tourney. They are a very good defensive team (46th eFG% allowed) and they defend the 3 very well (29th nationally) which is key here as the Gators like to launch from beyond the arc. The Gaels also have decent size and they are a solid rebounding team so they should hang with Florida on the boards. They have only 1 loss this season by more than 9 points and that was vs #1 seed Kansas (lost by 13). Iona will give the Gators all they can handle here. We expect it to be close throughout and we grab the points.

#705 ASA PLAY ON 8* Nicholls State +15.5 over SMU, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Almost no way SMU brings their “A” game here. They were among the most devasted teams to be left out of the Big Dance. Here are some quotes from SMU coach Jankovich which speaks volumes. "I saw a group of guys completely devastated and heartbroken. In my eyes, they're 100% an NCAA tournament team. I hope they don't let what a small committee of others believes change how they feel about themselves.” Now to have to play in a meaningless (to them) game will be very tough. Nicholls State is just happy to still be playing. They are veteran team with 5 senior starters that was the top team all season long in the Southern Conference. They won the regular season title but were upset by Texas A&M CC in the conference tourney. The Colonels played some tough competition quite well before entering their conference slate. They lost by 3 @ Wisconsin, by 14 @ Purdue, and by 13 @ TCU. They also beat a very solid Northern Iowa team on the road. They are a decent shooting team (69th nationally in eFG%) and they have pretty good size for a low major team and won’t get dominated on the boards vs a poor rebounding SMU team. NSU had a winning 10-9 SU record on the road this season. This line is a bit high in our opinion even not taking the emotional letdown in mind here. 2 teams in the AAC that were similarly rated to Nicholls State were Tulsa and USF. SMU was favored by 10.5 and 14.5 at home in those games and won both of those games by 14. Too many points to begin with and factoring in the situation we like Nicholls State.

#665 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indiana -3.5 over Wyoming, Tuesday at 9:10 PM ET - IU has already pulled out the disrespect card in regards to being chosen to take part in one of the play in games. They felt they were firmly in the field and in hindsight they barely made it in. Hoosier star forward Trace Jackson-Davis took to Instagram after the selection process, ““Some disrespect. We in. That’s all that matters.” Expect IU to play with a chip on their shoulder in front of what will be like a home crowd for them. Dayton is just 160 miles from Bloomington and this storied program hasn’t been to the Dance since 2016 so we can expect the Crimson & White fans to be all over Dayton Arena on Tuesday night. Wyoming had a solid year but struggled down the stretch winning 4 of their last 9 games. 2 of those 4 wins came vs teams ranked outside the top 100 (Air Force & Nevada) and the 2 others were by 2 points and in OT. It’s also a rough match up for the Cowboys as they played through the post offensive as much as any team in the nation and IU excels at defending inside (8th best at near proximity shots & 14th best at defending mid range shots). Indiana is finally healthy as well after missing two key players (Galloway & Phinisee) for a number of games down the stretch. Now with them back in the lineup they seem to be peaking beating Michigan, Illinois, and nearly taking down a red hot Iowa in the Big 10 tourney. Lay the points.

#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -4.5 over Oregon, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Ducks will most likely have zero interest in playing this game. They are on the road, in the NIT, vs a MWC team. This is an Oregon team who tanked it down the stretch. They were in line for a highly probably NCAA bid in mid February with a 17-8 record, 10-4 in the Pac 12. They proceeded to drop 6 of their final 8 games to officially drop out of NCAA consideration. This is not where this team wanted to be. They are also shorthanded with starting PG Richardson and leading scorer (14 PPG) mostly likely out for the 4th consecutive game. The Ducks are 1-3 with him out of the line up with their only win coming over last place Oregon State. On top of that, starting F Dante (8 PPG, 6 RPG) missed practice on Sunday with an injury. We envision this team showing up and playing out the string in this one. USU, on the other hand, is thrilled to be hosting a Pac 12 team in the NIT. They stated as much on Sunday night. They rarely host a high major type team. In fact, the last time the Aggies played host to a Power 5 team was way back on 2014 when the topped USC here by 13 points. They will be pumped for this game. Not only that, they are a very solid team. They rank in the top 50 in offensive efficiency and in the top 25 in eFG%. They shoot 48% at home and win by an average margin of +11 points. They are a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up. Oregon underachieved all season with a terrible 12-20 ATS record and we don’t expect that to change tonight. USU is the play.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +7.5 over Boston Celtics, 3:30 PM ET - The Celtics have been playing lights out and garnering a ton of media attention which has driven this line higher than it should be. If I ask you which of these teams has a better overall record you would be quick to tell me Boston. If I were to say who has won 12 of their last fifteen you would probably reply Boston. In reality the team I’m talking about is Dallas. The Mavs have flown under the radar for most of the season and are the bet in this situation. Dallas owns the 8th best average point differential in the NBA at +3.1PPG. Boston is slightly better at +5.7PPG. Boston owns a slightly better overall offensive efficiency rating but both are near equal defensively ranking 3rd (Boston) and 5th (Dallas). Boston has the 5th best home average margin of victory in the league at +5.7PPG but Dallas holds the 7th best road differential at +1.7PPG. Dallas has been an underdog of more than +7.5 points just three times this season and they are perfect against the spread in those games or 3-0 ATS. Boston hasn’t faired well as a bigger favorite this season with a 7-11 ATS mark when laying -7.5 or more points. Dallas has covered 9 of the last 12 meetings in Beantown. Grab the points.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Davidson -3.5 over Richmond, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - While Richmond is playing for a spot in the Big Dance, we think this is a terrible spot for them. It’s the Spiders 4th game in 4 days and to be honest, they’ve been a bit lucky to get to this spot. They’ve held their first 3 opponents to just 25% from 3-point land which is a big time outlier as the Spiders rank 211th nationally and 11th in the A10 at defending the arc. They now play a Davidson team that ranks 7th nationally shooting from deep hitting almost 39% of their 3’s. They also rank 10th in the country in offensive efficiency and 11th in eFG%. Richmond has also held their first 3 opponents in this tourney to just 62 PPG which is more than 10 points below what they gave up per game during the season. Tired legs playing their 4th straight game will make it very tough today vs one of the best offensive teams in the nation. Richmond was down 15 in the 2nd half yesterday vs Dayton and made a furious comeback to win a close won. They led for a total of 2 minutes the entire game. Davidson is well rested and ready here. They blew out Fordham to open the tourney and they destroyed a very good St Louis team yesterday. The Wildcats have been able to spread out their minutes with 8 players playing double digit minutes in each game. They are also playing their 3rd game in this tourney while Richmond is playing their 4th. These 2 met once this season and Davidson won that game @ Richmond. We realize this is a huge game for the Spiders, but teams that “have to” win don’t always win. We think they run out of gas here vs the better team. Lay the number.