ASA NBA top play on: LA Lakers +5.5 at Denver Nuggets – 7:30PM ET - The Nuggets swept the Lakers out of the Playoffs last season, but all four games were decided by 11-points or less. Three of the four games had a final margin of 6-points or less. A couple things we know for certain tonight, which we may not know in the regular season, is that LeBron and Anthony Davis are both eager to play. Nuggets head coach Malone had some things to say about the Lakers after they swept them last season and apparently the Lakers took offense. In reality, talk is cheap, and that motivation will only last early in the game and then it’s business as usual. We do like the Lakers' improvements to their roster. Gabe Vincent gives them another playmaking guard that can shoot. Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince add to their depth along with Christian Wood. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road a season ago with an average plus/minus of -2.1PPG. Denver was 34-7 SU at home in the regular season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. The Lakers made solid strides in the second half of the season, especially defensively as they finished the year allowing just 1.140-points per possession. The Nuggets lost two key components to their roster with the departure of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green while the Lakers got stronger with their additions. Don’t be surprised if LA wins this game outright.

#101 ASA TOP PLAY ON New Mexico State +2.5 over Louisiana Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We like to take a strong look at underdogs that have a better rushing attack and we expect to control the trenches. That’s what we have here. La Tech is a poor rushing team that has been outgained on the ground in every game but one this season. If we take out their game vs FCS opponent Northwestern State, the Bulldogs only average 109 YPG rushing (108th nationally) on only 3.5 YPC. On the other side of the ball their rush defense is poor as well ranking 119th in the country allowing 200 YPG on the ground 5.0 YPC. That’s despite facing a fairly easy slate of rush offenses including 3 teams outside the top 100 in rushing. La Tech has faced 2 teams ranked inside the top 50 in rushing this year, Nebraska and North Texas, and those 2 teams rolled up 312 and 249 yards on the ground respectively. Tuesday they host a NM State team that ranks 2nd in the nation averaging 6.1 yards per carry and puts up over 200 YPG on the ground. Despite their success on the ground, the Aggies are not one dimensional as they pass for over 235 YPG as well and average a whopping 7.0 YPP which is 5th in the nation behind only Washington, Oregon, LSU, and USC. The Aggies record is 5-3 yet they’ve outgained all but 1 opponent (Liberty who is 7-0) on a YPP basis. NM State has a YPP differential of +1.3 and they are well coached under former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill. Their defense isn’t great, but it’s respectable allowing 5.7 YPP. Since their bye in late September, NMSU has won 3 in a row by an average margin of +17 PPG covering all 3. La Tech has been a home favorite only 7 times since the start of the 2020 season and they have covered only 2 of those games. During that same time span they have played 15 home games (FBS only) and they have a SU record of 7-8 in those games. We like the dog to win this game outright.

ASA top play on 10* San Francisco 49ers -7 at Minnesota Vikings 8:20 PM ET - Let’s start with the fact that the 49ers are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL while the Vikings are one of the worst. San Franisco is 2nd in the league in rushing attempts and 7th in yards per rush at 4.5 per carry. The Vikings are 32nd in rushing attempts per game and 21st in yards per rush at 4.0. You simply cannot be one-dimensional against a defense of this Niners caliber and expect to compete. Not to mention, the Vikings are without their best overall offensive player in WR Jefferson. San Francisco rates top 10 in most offensive and defensive categories while the Vikings rank around league average or worse. The Niners have some injuries on offense, but this loaded roster can overcome those shortcomings. The Vikings cannot. It’s well documented how Minnesota QB Cousins has struggled on MNF with a 2-10 SU record. Not only is his Monday night record bad, but his yards per game passing, interception rate and touchdown percentage, are also much worse. San Francisco is coming off a loss and are 7-4 ATS their last eleven in that situation, 3-1 ATS their last four with an average margin of victory in those games of +7.8PPG. Lastly, the 49ers were just favored by -8.5 points at the Browns who have the best defense in the NFL and are now laying less at the middle of the pack Vikings.

#472 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re siding with the Eagles at home in a very solid situational spot in our opinion. We’re getting one of the top teams in the NFL, at home, and coming off a loss as a favorite. Philly lost @ NY Jets last Sunday 20-14 but they dominated the flyboys in the stat sheet. The Birds outgained the Jets by over 100 yards and by +1.0 YPP. They lost the turnover battle 4-0 which was the difference in the game despite dominating the stats. The Jets scored half their points off Philly turnovers including an 8 yard TD drive with under 2:00 minutes remaining after the Eagles turned the ball over with the lead. We think Miami is overvalued based on their blowout wins vs bad teams. Since beating the LA Chargers by 2 points to open the season on a late TD the Miami wins have come vs New England, Denver, NY Giants, and Carolina. Those 4 teams have a combined record of just 3-21! The one high level team Miami played this year @ Buffalo, the Fins were destroyed 48-20. Miami has great offensive stats, but again, their opponents have been weak and their 70-20 win over Denver (Fins had over 700 total yards) is really making their overall stats look better than they actually are. They’ve already faced 3 of the bottom 6 defenses in the NFL. Philly’s defense is solid ranked in the top 10. Speaking of top 10, the Eagles are one of only 4 teams (SF, KC, Detroit, and Philly) that are ranked in the top 10 in both total offense and defense. We like this defense (#2 in the NFL allowing 65 YPG) to slow down Miami’s #1 rushing attack (181 YPG) and make the Fins one dimensional which is key. On the other side, Philly’s offense (#2 in the NFL) should have success running the ball vs a Miami defense thar ranks 20th vs the run and 20th in total defense. This will be just the 3rd home game for Philadelphia this season (2-0 so far) and they’ve won 14 of their last 17 home games. We like them to win this one by at least a FG.

#451 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - If we were to give you the stats of last week’s Falcons/Commanders game after the fact, we’re pretty sure you would have bet a large sum of money on Atlanta. The Falcons outgained the Commanders 402 total yards to 193 and 5.1YPP to 4.3YPP but still lost 16-24. Atlanta had a +13 minute time of possession advantage too but 3 turnovers to 0 was too much for the Birds to overcome. Tampa Bay’s offense was exposed last week by the Lions in a 6-20 loss at home where they managed just 251 total yards of offense and 4.7YPP. The Bucs offense ranks 25th in total yards per game (291) gained and yards per play 4.9YPP. Tampa is one dimensional on offense with a rushing attack that averages just 3.0YPC which is last in the league. The Bucs will have a tough time scoring in this game with a running game that generates very little success rate and a passing O that will be facing a Falcons pass D that is 4th in the league. Atlanta allows just 179PYPG and ranks 11th in opposing QB’s completion percentage. Atlanta runs for 119YPG which is 10th best in the NFL. QB Ridder has thrown for over 630 total yards in the Falcons last two games with 3 TD/3INT’s. Atlanta has a net yards per play differential of +0.3YPP compared to the Bucs negative differential of minus -0.3YPP. The Falcons should be a rush-doubling underdog in this one which is one of the stronger NFL angles dating back to the mid-1980’s

#348 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Atlantic +2.5 over UTSA, Saturday at 6 PM ET - UTSA is still getting priced too high in the market in our opinion. Our power ratings have FAU as a slight favorite at home in this game. The Roadrunners were very good last season with an 11-3 overall record and it seems the oddsmakers are still relying on last year’s results to set numbers this season. UTSA is just 3-3 on the year and only 2-4 ATS. They did miss their starting QB Harris for 2 games this season but the offense hasn’t been great with him in the lineup. The Roadrunners are coming off back to back deceivingly easy wins which sets this one up nicely. They beat Temple and UAB handily each of the last 2 weeks but UTSA was outgained in both of those games. Those 2 opponents have a combined 4-10 record and turned the ball over 5 times in those 2 games (UTSA had 1 turnover). This FAU team is also 3-3 on the season but they’ve played the tougher schedule already facing road games @ Clemson and @ Illinois. The Owls are improving and seem to be peaking under new HC Herman (former Texas head coach) and they are finally looking comfortable with his new schemes. Since getting rolled @ Clemson in September, the Owls have covered 3 straight and won the last 2 SU vs Tulsa and South Florida. Last week they played their most complete game of the season rolling over a decent USF team who lost to Bama this year by only 7 points. In last week’s game, FAU was a 2 point dog on the road @ South Florida and won 56-14 putting up almost 600 yards on 7.5 YPP. QB Richardson, former Central Michigan starter, took over for an injured starter (Thompson) after the Clemson loss and he’s impressed with almost 800 yards passing, a 67% completion rate, and 5 TD’s in those 3 starts. He’s been getting help from his running game as well with FAU topping 200 yards rushing in each of the last 2 games. The Owls have played the strong strength of schedule and still have a better YPP differential and point differential when compared to UTSA. This Florida Atlantic team is playing their best football of the season and getting points at home vs a UTSA team that has been throwing up some false final scores as of late. Take the points with the home team.

#368 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -12 over Eastern Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We’ve been anti EMU all season long and for good reason. The Eagles have a 4-3 record but that record is as deceiving as it gets. Their wins have come vs Howard (FCS), Kent (we have power rated 133rd – last in FBS), UMass (power rated 129th) and Ball State (power rated 121st). In last week’s 28-14 win vs Kent, the Eagles were actually outgained 343 to 218 by a Golden Flashes team that was getting outgained by an average of 221 to 460 coming into that game. EMU benefitted from 3 Kent turnovers including a pick 6. That’s vs a Kent team that had been outscored 202-42 in their 6 games vs FBS opponents this season. So EMU was facing what was the worst team in college football, they were outplayed by a lot on the stat sheet, and it was a home game for Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have been outgained in each of their wins (except Howard) by teams we have rated in the bottom 10 to 15 in college football. They are now on the road vs a NIU team that has been playing very well. Last week the Huskies beat a very good Ohio team (rated 2nd best team in the MAC) by 10 points and outgained them by +1.2 YPP. A week prior to that they roasted Akron 55-14 and before that lost @ Toledo (#1 team in the MAC) by just 2 points. The Husky defense has been solid all year ranking in the top 25 in both total defense and YPP allowed. They will have no problem whatsoever vs an Eastern Michigan offense that has been brutal all season long. The Eagles rank outside the top 115 in scoring offense, total offense, rushing offense, and passing offense. NIU has played the much tougher schedule to date and the Huskies have a +0.5 YPP differential while EMU has a -1.4 YPP differential. Northern controlled the trenches last week vs a top notch Ohio defense (130 yards rushing to 95 for Ohio) and they should own the line of scrimmage again this week. The Huskies rushing attack has really kicked it in gear over the last 4 games averaging 215 YPG on the ground and they are facing an EMU defense that allows over 200 YPG rushing this season. Kent, who was averaging 79 YPG rushing entering last week, had 163 yards on the ground vs this Eagle defense. NIU is better, and quite a bit better, in every facet of the game. We’re getting a decent line here (lower than it should be) because EMU has a faulty record as we discussed. If Eastern wasn’t 9th in the nation in turnover margin (+1 per game) their record would look quite different. This should be a blowout.

#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Sam Houston State -5 over Florida International, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Wait a minute. The 0-6 team is favored over the 3-4 team? Not only that, the winless team is favored by more than a FG. Hmmm. We agree SHSU should be favored at home in this one and we’ll side with them here. First these teams are heading in opposite directions right now. FIU had 3 game winning streak back in early to mid September and after that run they have lost 3 straight by a combined score of 99-37. They also failed to cover all 3 of those games by a combined 50 points! The Panthers were in a great spot to pick up a win at home last Thursday facing a bad UTEP team that was down to their 4th string QB. FIU lost that game by 13 points and were outgained by almost 100 yards. Despite their overall record, Sam Houston is 3-2-1 ATS on the season. Their offense was putrid the first 3 games but they faced some tough competition in BYU, Air Force, and Houston. The Bearkats only scored 10 total points in those 3 games. However, over their last 3 games this offense has improved dramatically scoring 57 points and averaging 377 YPG. That improvement should continue here vs an FIU defense that ranks 117th in total defense and 118th in YPP allowed. SHSU has played the much tougher schedule (58th SOS compared to 132nd for FIU) and this is just their 3rd home game of the season. They’ve played quite well in their other 2 home tilts losing to undefeated Air Force 13-3 holding the #1 rushing team in the nation 80 yards and 1.3 YPC below their averaging. In their other home game they lost in OT to Jacksonville State (5-2 record) but the Bearkats were +5 first downs and +40 yards in that game. This team is overdue for a win and they know this is one of the best shots. Look for a great effort and a win and cover from Sam Houston State.

#75 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line (-1.5 goals -115) over San Jose Sharks, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - The Hurricanes are highly motivated after their first loss of the season and we knew we were going to come with a strong play here after that Canes loss. This Carolina team is again loaded this season while it looks like San Jose will be one of the weakest teams in the league again this season. Last season the Sharks finished with the fewest wins (22 out of 82 games) in the entire league while the Hurricanes were 2nd to only the Bruins in terms of best record in the entire league as the latter had a historical regular season. So far this season the Sharks are 0-1-1 but they should be 0-2-0 with two blowout losses as they lost their opener 4 to 1 and then lost their 2nd game by only 2-1 in the shootout but they were outshot in the game 52 to 21. Complete dominance! Speaking of dominance, a key to this play is that Carolina has already scored an average of 4.3 games in regulation time of their 3 games. This is a dangerous Hurricanes offensive attack once again. The Sharks, on the other hand, have scored just 1 goal in each of their first two games this season! Carolina is sure to respond off the Saturday loss and San Jose had seen 8 of their last 9 losses (dating back to last season) come by 2 or more goals before they were fortunate to hang around in the 2-1 loss to Colorado Saturday. They will not be so fortunate here against a determined and highly motivated road team. The Canes are a massive money line favorite (-300 on the road!) for a reason here and you can also see why the odds suggest a good probability that the winner of this game in San Jose will win it by 2 or more goals. Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Carolina at a very reasonable low price in this one is the value play here.

#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - TB has been a surprise with a 3-1 record to start the season. However a deep dive reveals they are +7 in turnover margin in their 3 wins who have come vs Minnesota, Chicago, and New Orleans who have a combined record of 5-10. Despite their winning record, the Bucs are getting outgained on a YPP basis this season. The one good team they’ve faced was Philadelphia who rolled TB 25-11 and outgained them by 2.1 YPP and that game was in Tampa. The Lions had a lot of publicity coming into the season and we were wary of this team. Mainly on the defensive side of the ball after finishing 30th or lower in YPP allowed in each of the last 3 seasons. They’ve proven us wrong so far this season as this Detroit team looks very good on both sides of the ball. They are one of two teams that currently ranks inside the top 6 in both total offense and total defense. The other is San Francisco. DVOA has Detroit ranked as the 3rd best team in the NFL behind only San Francisco and Buffalo. They are ranked the 4th best offense and 3rd best defense per DVOA. The Lions only loss was in OT vs Seattle and the Lions outgained the Seahawks 6.5 YPP to 5.9 YPP in that game but had 3 turnovers (0 for Seattle). Detroit has one of the best YPP differentials in the NFL at +1.1 and they’ve been a money making juggernaut covering 13 of their last 15 games dating back to last season. Lay the FG here.

#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis Colts +4 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for Jacksonville. They just played back to back weeks in London so they’ve been overseas for 2 weeks. Coming home to play the next Sunday will be tough as the body clocks will take until mid week to adjust back. Also, being away for 2 weeks and then coming home is a distraction in itself having to get caught up on things back at home, seeing family again, etc… The Jags were 2-0 in their London trip but they were outgained in both games on a YPP basis vs Atlanta and Buffalo. In their win over the Falcons the Jaguars were gifted with 3 Atlanta turnovers, including a 61 yard pick 6, but Jacksonville only averaged 4.7 YPP. Last week vs Buffalo, they caught the Bills in a perfect spot after rolling over Miami a week earlier in a huge AFC East game. Then the Bills waited until Friday to travel to London while Jax had been their for a week plus already. Even with that, the Bills averaged 7.2 YPP while holding the Jags to 5.8. The Jags are 0-2 SU & ATS at home this year where they have very little home field advantage. As a starting QB, Trevor Lawrence is 0-5 ATS as a home favorite winning only 1 of those games outright. Indy is playing well right now. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss coming vs the Rams in OT in a game the Colts ran 20 fewer offensive snaps and still took LA to overtime. These 2 met in the first game of the season and while Jacksonville won 31-21, the Colts were starting rookie QB Richardson in his first every start and Indy led 21-17 with just over 5 minutes remaining in the game. Both teams are 3-2 on the season but the Colts have a better point differential (although very close) and a better YPP differential. We think Indy has a very good shot at the upset and if not, we’re getting some generous points.

ASA play 8* on #251 Baltimore Ravens -5 vs. Tennessee Titans, Sunday 9:30AM ET - Get in the action early when the Ravens square off against the Titans in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium overseas. Baltimore is coming off a gut wrenching 10-17 last minute loss to the Steelers last weekend and should bounce back here. Baltimore will be much better prepared for this game after getting smoked in their only other trip to London (7-44 loss to the Jags). The Ravens changed their travel schedule and got to London on Monday while Tennessee will get there on Friday similar to Buffalo last week. The Ravens are getting healthy and will have their entire starting OL playing for the 1st time since week 1. Tennessee has some injury issues of their own with NT Teair Tart questionable. Tart is their top run stuffer and it showed last week when the Colts gouged the Titans for 194 rushing yards on 34 carries. On the subject of rushing. The Ravens average 4.5 yards per carry (10th), 146 rushing yards p/game (4th) and complement the ground game with a passing attack that owns a 69.6% completion percentage (5th) and throws for 6.6 yards per attempt. Overall, the Ravens are 11th in offensive DVOA. The Titans have some solid rush defensive numbers ranking 9th in rushing YPG allowed and 7th in rush yards per attempt. But against the two other running teams similar to Baltimore (Indy & Cleveland) they lost and failed to cover in each. Tennessee doesn’t do anything well offensively ranking 24th in total YPG, 22nd in DVOA, 18th in rushing YPG and 28th in passing YPG. It will be tough sledding against this Ravens D that is 2nd in YPG allowed at 266.4YPG, 2nd in YPP defense allowing 4.1YPP and 3rd in passing yards allowed per game. In fact, the Ravens rank 2nd in defensive DVOA, only behind the Cleveland Browns and ahead of teams like Dallas and San Fran. Lay the points with Baltimore.

#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Air Force -11 over Wyoming, Saturday at 7 PM ET - There is a reason AF is favored by a full 10 points over a Wyoming team that currently has a 5-1 record. The Cowboys have been as lucky as you can get to reach that record this season. They’ve been outgained by an average of 52 YPG and their offense is one of the worst in college football averaging only 325 YPG (114th). They’ve had a favorable schedule with all home games with the exception of their game @ Texas, a 31-10 Wyoming loss, and in that game they caught the Longhorns the week after they beat Alabama on the road. They have not been on the road in full month and we think they’re running into a buzzsaw here. Air Force is 5-0 on the season and they are coming off a bye week. The Falcons rank #1 nationally averaging 330 YPG on the ground and they are facing a Wyoming defense that ranks 76th defending the run and 78th in YPC allowed. They’ve allowed at least 200 yards on the ground in 2 of their last 3 games and we think they’ll struggle to stop the rested Falcons here. The AF offense is humming scoring at least 39 points in every game but one this season. Defensively they’ve been elite ranking in the top 10 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing YPG allowed, and passing YPG allowed. Wyoming will have trouble keeping up in this game with a poor offense vs that defense. This is also a revenger for Air Force after losing by 3 points @ Wyoming last year as a -16.5 point favorite. The Cowboys are playing for the 7th consecutive week and are off an upset home win over Fresno State (Wyoming was +6 at home in that game). The Falcons have won every game this season by double digits by an average score of 37-12. They have quietly won 19 of their last 22 games with 15 of those wins coming by at least 10 points. Lay it.

#70 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line (-1.5 goals -120) over Montreal Canadiens, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Maple Leafs are highly motivated after another tough exit from the post-season last spring. This Toronto team is again loaded this season while it looks like Montreal will be one of the weaker teams in the league again this season. Last season the Canadiens finished dead last in the division while the Leafs were 2nd to only the Bruins as the latter had a historical regular season. Montreal lost 27 of 41 road games last season while the Maple Leafs won 27 of 41 home games last season. 10 of the Canadiens last 12 losses last season were by 2 or more goals. The last 11 meetings between these clubs has seen the home team win all 11 games and last season Toronto's two home wins over Montreal were by a combined score of 12 to 2. The Maple Leafs are a big money line favorite for a reason here and you can also see why the odds suggest a good probability that the winner of this game in Toronto will win it by 2 or more goals. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Toronto at a very reasonable low price in this one is the value play here.

#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Cowboys +4 at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a rematch of the playoff meeting between these two teams when the Niners won at home 19-12 as a -3.5-point favorite. That game was relatively close throughout with the 49ers averaging 5.1YPP compared to Dallas and their 4.7YPP. These two teams along with Philadelphia are the best of the NFC and we expect this game to be decided by a field goal or less either way. Dallas is 4th in scoring at 31PPG but have largely failed in Red Zone scoring percentage at 36.8%. They have received some scoring help from their defense but clearly the offense is better than their overall numbers. The Cowboys have kept the chains moving by converting 51.61% of their 3rd downs with the 7th best rushing offense in terms of total yards. QB Dak Prescott also has the 6th best completion percentage in the NFL. Obviously, San Francisco has incredible offensive numbers ranking 3rd in rushing YPG and 9th in passing YPG. Defensively these two teams have plenty of similarities and if you look you’ll see both rate top 5 in most key categories. The one slight advantage the Cowboys have will be in pressuring Niners QB Purdy as Dallas has the 2nd best sack percentage in the league. These are two very even teams and getting more than a field goal with Dallas is the way to play it.

#466 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +3.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Cincy is living on their past few years because this team isn’t good right now. They rank dead last with a -1.7 yards per play differential. They have 1 win and in that 3 point victory over the Rams they were actually outgained by 1.3 YPP. QB Burrow not close to 100% and that’s obvious. He needs to sit and rest his calf to get healthy but they continue to play him. He’s dead last in the league in QBR and has zero mobility. The Cards were expected by most to be terrible this season. While they only have 1 win, they’ve proven that not to be the case. This team plays hard under new head coach Gannon and believe it or not, offensively Arizona is averaging 1.7 YPP more than the Bengals this season. The last 2 weeks the Cards have played what most consider to be the 2 best teams in the NFC and played well for the most part. The beat the Cowboys here at home by 12 points 2 weeks ago and it was no fluke. Arizona averaged an impressive 7.5 YPP in that game while holding Dallas to just 5.5 YPP. Last week they did lose @ San Francisco by double digits but that was a 5 point game in the 4th quarter. The Bengals are averaging a league low 12 PPG and this is their 2nd straight week on the road after getting roasted @ Tennessee 27-3 last Sunday getting outgained 400 to 211. The Bengals continue to be overvalued on past laurels and have failed to cover the spread in any game this year losing to the number by 53 combined points. We think Zona has a solid shot at the outright win. Take the points.

#453 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Texans +2 at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Houston Texans have clearly been one of the bigger surprise stories this season with rookie QB Stroud playing above expectations. Stroud is 4th in total passing yards at 1,212 with 6 TD’s to zero INT’s. It’s not like he’s throwing short underneath passes either (Ridder) as he ranks 12th in intended air yards. We mention the Falcons QB Ridder who is really struggling with Atlanta’s offense and has a QBR of 29.2 which ranks 31st in the NFL. Ridder has just 744 passing yards with 3 TD’s to 3 INT’s. Atlanta has produced just 13 total points in their last 8 quarters and average just 15.5PPG on the season. In their last two games the Birds have averaged just 2.8 yards per play against the Lions and 5.0YPP last week against the Jaguars who allow 5.4 on the season. Atlanta is 28th in yards per point offensively and 26th in yards per play. The Falcons defense has some solid numbers including a pass defense that allows just 176PYPG but overall, this unit ranks 23rd in defensive DVOA. Houston is 5th in team total yards offensively this season, rank 16th in yards per point and 13th in yards per play. They are averaging 24PPG and coming off a game against a Steeler defense where they managed 451 total yards. In their last two games they have averaged 6.5YPP against the Jags and Steelers. Stroud and the Texans will have time to throw against this Falcons team as they rank 30th in sack percentage. Lastly, the Falcons are coming off a game overseas and that travel takes a toll on the entire roster. The wrong team is favored here. Bet the Texans.

#401 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan -17.5 over Minnesota, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We see this game playing out very similar to last week’s Michigan win @ Nebraska 45-7. The Husker are actually a better team than Minnesota this year (according to our power ratings) as they dominated the stat sheet @ Minnesota in week 1 but lost 13-10 due to 4 turnovers. Minnesota struggled here last week vs UL Lafayette but won by 11 despite getting outgained 6.7 YPP to 5.3 YPP. ULL held Minnesota to just 347 total yards and the Gophs were lucky to put up 35 points with those yardage numbers. ULL did rush for 180 yards on the Gopher defense which has taken a big step back this season. That’ll be a problem vs the potent Michigan rushing attack that had 249 yards on the ground last week vs a very good Nebraska defense last Saturday. The Wolves were going through the motions their first 3 games off the season which were all easy wins but non-covers. The last 2 weeks vs Big 10 opponents they scored 76 points and held those teams to 14 points combined. Now with their head coach Harbaugh and OC back on the sidelines after missing games early this season due to suspensions, we look for Michigan to roll. Minnesota has played a relatively easy schedule with the best team they played, North Carolina, rolling over the Gophs 31-13 and outgaining them 519 to 303. Their other opponents are Eastern Michigan (bad MAC team), Nebraska (lower tier Big 10 team), Northwestern (lower tier Big 10 team) and UL Lafayette from the Sun Belt. Despite their strength of schedule (62nd) the Gophers have been outgained on the year on both a YPG and YPP basis. Similar to last week’s Michigan game vs Nebraska – Minnesota can’t pass (120th at 149 YPG passing) and you can’t run on Michigan as they are allowing 85 YPG on the ground. Last week a solid rushing team, Nebraska, had 106 yards on the ground and 74 of those came on one run late in the game – the Huskers only TD. On top of that, Minnesota’s top RB Taylor didn’t play last week and it doesn’t look like he’ll be ready for this one. The Wolverines have won 30 of their last 31 regular season games and 25 of those have come by double digits. Michigan can name the score here and we look for a blowout.

#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois, Friday at 8 PM ET - We have Nebraska power rated as the better team in this match up and they are getting just north of the FG. After back to back wins the Huskers were crushed last week at home vs Michigan which wasn’t unexpected as the Wolverines just might be the best team in the country. The Nebraska offense was actually decent averaging 5.9 YPP but only ran 46 offensive snaps to 74 for Michigan. Their defense really impressed us this season but struggled vs one of the top offenses in the country last week. We expect them to bounce back and play very well vs an Illinois offense that ranks 75th nationally in total offense and is averaging just over 21 PPG (105th nationally). After their loss vs Michigan, Cornhusker head coach Matt Rhule held a surprise full pad, full contact practice on Sunday and our word is it was one of their best practices of the season. The Illini were blasted 44-19 @ Purdue last week and that’s a Boiler team that entered that game with only 1 win on the season (by 7 points) vs a bad Va Tech team. Illinois has 2 wins on the season coming by 2 points vs Toledo and by 6 points vs a bad FAU team. We were on the Illini in that game vs FAU and thought it was a perfect spot for them to get back on track vs the Owls who were rolled @ Clemson a week earlier and lost their starting QB in that loss. Illinois was only able to beat FAU 23-17 in a very disappointing performance. Their defense has dropped off drastically this season after losing a number of key players to the NFL. The Illini gave up over 200 yards rushing last week vs Purdue and are giving up 180 YPG on the ground this season (110th). That’s a problem vs a Nebraska offense that is putting up over 200 YPG on the ground (15th nationally) and are continuing with Haaberg at QB who has 255 yards rushing in his 3 starts. Nebraska is much better defensively this season allowing 4.6 YPP (that includes game vs Michigan) compared to the Illini allowing 5.5 YPP. Nebraska really should be 3-2 on the season after completely outplaying Minnesota on the road in week 1 (lost 13-10) with other losses @ Colorado and at home vs Michigan. We give the Huskers a great shot at winning this one outright so we’ll take the points.

#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech +6.5 over Western Kentucky, Thursday at 8 PM ET - WKY is overvalued coming into this one and our power ratings have them as just under a 3 point favorite and they opened -7. It has since dropped a bit but still some solid value on the host La Tech. Western Kentucky is coming off a solid 31-10 win over MTSU however the yardage was much closer than than (444 to 373) and the Blue Raiders had 3 turnovers. MTSU left a number of points on the field getting shut out on downs twice inside WKY territory to go along with their turnover problems. It was actually the first time this season the Hilltoppers (3-2 record) have outgained their opponent (minus FCS competition). Western is averaging 382 YPG on the season (76th nationally) while allowing 472 YPG (130th). They rank 106th defensively allowing 6.2 YPP on the season and they have allowed over 500 yards in 3 of their 4 games vs FBS opponents. So we have a team laying nearly a TD on the road despite being poor on defense. Not a great recipe for success. Their offense has also taken a big step back (-130 YPG compared to last year) after losing their OC in the off season to Washington State. La Tech moved to 3-3 on the season after a road win @ UTEP last Saturday. Their offense has been comparable to WKY averaging 376 YPG but the Bulldogs defense is allowing nearly 100 fewer YPG than the Hilltoppers. The host also has the much better rushing attack (153 YPG on the ground to just 98 YPG for WKY) and they are facing a Hilltopper defense that gives up over 200 YPG on the ground. Western is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks here and on a short week. We’ll take the points with Louisiana Tech at home.

#950 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:08 PM ET - The Brewers set to win huge in this one with a massive pitching edge. The Diamondbacks will have to contend with Milwaukee’s ace Corbin Burnes and this will likely make for a night of misery for Arizona at the plate while the Brewers should enjoy facing a pitcher that was hit hard in September and, overall, has had an unimpressive season. Brandon Pfaadt is a rookie that went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA this season.  Even though his ERA was a more respectable 4.22 since the all-star break, he is coming off a September in which opponents hit .288 against him. This is a tough spot for a young guy like Pfaadt pitching on the road in the first game of the post-season and especially when such a tough veteran pitcher is on the other side.  Unlike Pfaadt, the Brewers Burnes has been top notch this season and also just delivered another strong month of September in terms of being very tough to hit! Burnes has allowed just 8 earned runs on only 19 hits while striking out 33 in the 28.2 innings over his 5 starts since the end of August. A strong stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season and fanned 200 again this season! The Brewers have won 8 of 12 and have scored 5.3 runs a game in last 12 games. The Diamondbacks wrapped the season losing 4 straight games and have scored just 1.2 runs per game last  5 games.  57 of 78 Arizona losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 1.4 runs per game in their last 8 wins. They again shutdown the opposition as Burnes comes up huge here and the Brewers also hold the bullpen edge with ERA ranked 2nd compared to Diamondbacks ERA ranked 18th on the season. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line big in this one.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY GIANTS +2 vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 8:20 PM ET - This is one of those ‘plug your nose’ bets as the Giants have not looked good this season and currently stand 1-2 SU. Clearly a big reason for that losing record is the schedule they’ve faced with games against the Cowboys, 49ers and a better-than-expected Cardinals team. Dallas and San Francisco are arguably the two of the best defenses in the league along with the Browns. So, when you look at the Giants offensive numbers it’s understandable why they are so disappointing. Seattle on the other hand has faced a soft schedule with the Panthers, Rams and Lions. The win in Detroit is solid but the Lions were off a huge MNF win against the Chiefs and simply overlooked this Seahawks team that lost to the Rams in the opener. The Seahawks are 24th in the league in sacks per game and 29th in sack % defense. They don’t possess a pass rush capable of getting to Giants QB Jones. The Giants can get to Hawks QB Smith as the Seattle offensive line has been hit hard with injuries. The Yards Per Play differential for the Giants is not a pretty number as they are minus -1.1YPP, but again look at who they’ve faced. Seattle also has a negative differential as they average 5.6YPP on offense but allow 5.8YPP. Seattle has been a road favorite just 5 times since 2021 and they shouldn’t be laying points here.

#255 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings -4.5 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - All 0-3 teams are not created equal. Both teams 0-3 but Vikes could easily be 3-0 with 3 losses by combined 13 points. In their first 2 games of the season Minnesota outgained both TB & Philly by more than +1.0 YPP. Last week’s 4 point home loss to the Chargers also could easily have gone Minnesota’s way as their final 2 drives they were shut out on downs at Chargers 2 yard line and then threw a pick in the end zone. The main problem has been turnovers. The Vikes are minus 7 turnovers worst differential in NFL. Offensively they’ve been really good ranking 2nd in the NFL in YPP and 3rd in total offense (over 400 per game) and 82% of their scoring plays have been TD’s so they can score. That will be a problem for Carolina as we do not envision the Panthers keeping up on the scoreboard in this game. Panther QB Bryce Young comes back on Sunday which is a plus for Minnesota as backup Andy Dalton actually gives them a better chance to win right now. The Panther offense has been bad with Young under center scoring only 2 offensive TD’s this season and averaging just 4.1 YPP. Young makes ver few big plays with Young ranking dead last in yards per pass attempt (a lot of short passes). Despite their winless record, the Vikings have a positive YPP differential (+0.6) while Carolina is getting outgained regularly (-0.6 YPP differential). If Minnesota can straighten out their turnover issues, they should win this game comfortably.

#252 ASA PLAY ON 8* Jacksonville Jaguars -3 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET – Game in London - Traveling to London can be a tough transition for NFL teams but the Jags are more than used to this. They have now played in London each of the last 9 seasons which gives them an advantage knowing how to prep for this situation. Jacksonville is coming off an embarrassing setback at home vs Houston and we like them to bounce back in this situation. They outgained Houston and had more first downs but had an array of mistakes missing a FG, getting a FG blocked, and turning the ball over twice. Defensively the Jaguars weakness has been defending the pass. That may not be exploited on Sunday vs a Falcons offense that only averages 155 YPG through the air and a first year starting QB Ridder who has not been overly impressive ranking 29th in QBR. Atlanta has a tougher situation as they were on the road @ Detroit last week – lost 20-6 – and now have to head to London for 2nd of back to back long road trips. This will be their first outdoor game of the season and their offense has not been good averaging just 18 PPG and only 4.5 YPP (26th in the NFL). The Jacksonville offense finished in the top 10 in both total offense and efficiency (YPP) last season but they’ve struggled out of the gate. Part of the problem has been dropped passes as they already have more than any other team in the league. This offense, with many of the key components back from last season, will be much better than they’ve looked. The Birds have won just 1 of their last 11 games not played in their home stadium and the add another “L” to the ledger on Sunday. Take the Jags.

#146 ASA TOP PLAY ON Georgia Southern -6.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Georgia Southern has been very impressive this year under HC Clay Helton (former USC head coach) with a 3-1 record. Their only loss on the season was @ Wisconsin and GSU actually outplayed the Badgers in that one (more first downs & total yardage) but had 6 turnovers (0 for Wisconsin) in that setback. They bounced back nicely after that loss trouncing Ball State on the road 40-3 last Saturday. The Eagles offense has been tough to stop ranking 18th nationally in YPG and 7th in yards passing. Tulsa transfer QB Brin has completed 73% of his passes this year for 1,300 yards in just 4 games. If he can avoid the turnover, the GSU team will be very tough to beat. Brin does have 7 interceptions on the season, but again 5 came in one game vs Wisconsin. The defense has improved dramatically over last season allowing 334 YPG so far this season after allowing over 500 YPG a year ago. Coastal has taken a step back as we expected. They had a turnover on the coaching staff with their head coach moving onto Liberty. The Chanticleers are 2-2 on the season coming off a 30-17 home loss vs Georgia State. Their only 2 wins have come vs FCS Duquesne and Jacksonville State. This will be their first road game in almost a month and GSU has been waiting for this one. The Eagles went to Coastal last year and almost pulled the upset losing 34-30. GSU led by 10 in the 4th quarter in that game but allowed CC to score TD’s on each of their final 3 possessions. If we subtract games vs FCS teams this year, GSU still has a +0.6 YPP differential while Coastal is -0.8 YPP. The Eagles could have easily won on the road last year vs Coastal and we have upgraded GSU this year while the Chanticleers have clearly taken a step back. We’ll side with Georgia Southern at home.

#154 ASA PLAY ON 8* Central Michigan -9.5 over Eastern Michigan, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - We faded EMU last week @ Jacksonville State (-6.5) and picked up an easy 21-0 win. As we mentioned last week, Eastern Michigan had a record of 2-1 (now 2-2) but they were very lucky to have won any games this season. Their wins came vs Howard (average FCS team) and UMass who we have power rated as one of the 5 worst teams in the nation. Despite the wins, EMU was actually outgained in the Howard game by 120 yards and needed not one but two kickoff return TD’s to win by 10. In their game last week vs a bad UMass team, EMU was again outgained by 93 yards, they were +3 in turnovers, and still need a 50 yard passing TD with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game to win 19-17. In their loss the Eagles were blasted by Minnesota, allowed almost 300 yards rushing and they were outgained 413 to 152! In last week’s loss the Eagles only had 152 yards of total offense and gave up nearly 400 to JSU. The Eagles were outrushed 295 to 57 in the loss. Now on the road again for the 2nd straight week we think there’s a good chance they get blasted again. CMU is also 2-2 but they’ve played a tough schedule with losses @ Notre Dame and @ Michigan State (prior to MSU coach firing) and last week the Chippewas looked very good upsetting South Alabama on the road as a double digit underdog. That was just 1 week after South Alabama topped Oklahoma State on the road 33-7! CMU put up 34 points last week vs a solid South Alabama defense and they are facing an Eastern Michigan offense that can’t score (just 23 total points in 3 games vs FBS opponents). EMU ranks 131st (out of 133) in the nation in total offense (240 YPG) and on the other side of the ball their rush defense ranks 130th allowing 230 YPG on the ground. CMU won 3 straight vs the Eagles from 2019 – 2021 by an average margin of +18 PPG before losing @ EMU as a 1.5 point favorite last year. Central dual threat QB Emanuel will be EMU’s poor defense fits here and we like the Chippewas to get their revenge. Double digit win here.

#126 ASA PLAY ON 8* Syracuse +7 over Clemson, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We were on Clemson last week in what we thought was a great spot getting them in a rare home underdog role. The Tigers outplayed FSU in the stat sheet and never trailed in regulation. They lost by 7 in OT and we expect them to be flat here after blowing that game and ending their shot at the College Playoff. Now they are in a really rough spot going to a venue they’ve struggled in versus an opponent who sees this as one of their biggest games of the season. The Orange have covered 3 of the last 4 at home vs Clemson and their most recent game in the Carrier Dome (now JMA Wireless Dome but we can’t bring ourselves to call it that) in 2021, Syracuse outgained the Tigers but lost 17-14. They missed a FG with under 1:00 minute remaining which would have tied the game. Last year Cuse traveled to Clemson and gave them all they could handle losing 27-21 in one of the toughest stadiums to play in CFB. Syracuse is 4-0 on the season (3-0-1 ATS) but started a bit slow last week vs Army (looking ahead to this game?) before rolling to an easy win and holding the Cadets potent rushing attack to just 2.7 YPC. This Orange defense ranked in the top 25 nationally last year in YPP allowed and they are in the top 20 this year in that stat. Offensively they have a veteran QB Schraeder who is very dangerous throwing for almost 1,000 yards already this season while rushing for over 300 on nearly 7.0 YPC. They are averaging 44 PPG on the season through 4 games. The Clemson offense has some cluster injuries at the WR position and they’ve had problems with the Syracuse defense scoring only 44 points the last 2 meetings combined. This is a HUGE home game for Syracuse and they are catching Clemson in a perfect spot for an upset. We’ll take the points.

ASA Top Play on 10* Detroit Lions -1.5 at Green Bay Packers, Thursday 8:15PM ET - One big advantage the Lions have over the Packers in this game is their offensive line is much better than Green Bay’s. The Packers are without two starters on the O-line here in Bakhtiari and Jenkins who provide valuable protection for QB Love and running lanes for RB Jones. Green Bay will get Aaron Jones and WR Watson back for this game, but it may not matter if Love doesn’t have time to throw the football. Detroit allows just 4.6YPP this season which is 6th best in the NFL. The Lions are giving up just 3.2 yards per rush attempt which is 5th best in the league. In comparison, the Packers allow 4.3 yards per rush (18th) and 5.0YPP overall which is 16th. Offensively, the Lions have an edge here too with one of the better O-lines in the NFL. Detroit is averaging 5.8YPP (7th best) versus Green Bay who averages 5.0YPP (16th). These two teams both faced the Falcons this season. Detroit dominated the Falcons in a 20-6 win with 358 total yards to 183 and a YPP advantage of 7.4YPP to 3.1YPP. Green Bay faced this same Atlanta team the week before (lost 24-25) and gave up 446 total yards to the Birds, 5.7YPP while gaining just 224 total yards themselves at 5.4YPP. Detroit has won and covered 3 of the last four meetings with the Packers and even though Love has played well, we like the veteran QB Goff and the Lions in this one. Detroit is on a 14-6 ATS streak dating back to the start of last season and cash the ticket here.

#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Twins are likely going with Sonny Gray and the A's are likely going with Luis Medina.  Either way, Minnesota is the play here as Oakland is wrapping up a miserable season with more and more misery.  The Athletics have dropped to 48-110 on the season and are 21-73 against teams with a winning record this season.  The Twins are 47-33 at home this season and this is their regular season home finale.  83 of Oakland's 110 losses have been by 2 or more runs.  67 of Minnesota's 85 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs.  Sonny Gray has a 1.96 ERA this month and had a 2.04 ERA last month and he has a 1.77 ERA in day games this season.  Luis Medina is 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA in day games and 1-6 with a 6.60 ERA in road games.  He had a 6.10 ERA last month and has a 6.62 ERA last month.  This is another complete mismatch and Minnesota also has the much better bullpen in addition to the much better lineup - even if they rest a player or two here.  We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and only having to lay rather small juice with the Twins. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#980 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET - The Orioles are hungry to lock down the AL East.  They are getting close but they are not quite there yet.  Here they will take advantage of facing a struggling Nationals club and move one step closer to a division title.  While Washington is wrapping up another frustrating season, Baltimore has won 6 of 9 games and is looking to top the Rays for the division title after falling just short of the post-season last year.  The Orioles have a big pitching edge here with Kyle Bradish over Josiah Gray.  Though Gray is coming off decent starts recently, he faced non-playoff level clubs that were struggling.  This is a much tougher match-up for him here and he was very fortunate against Baltimore earlier this season when he allowed only 1 earned run in 5 innings despite walking 4 batters and giving up 8 baserunners overall in the short outing.  In his last 4 starts against playoff-level teams - Marlins, Phillies, Brewers, Blue Jays - Gray has allowed 16 earned runs in 14.1 innings!  As for the Orioles Bradish, his numbers are already extremely strong on the season but when you take out the only very ugly start he had (7 earned runs allowed) it shows just how amazingly consistent he has been this season.  Taking out his ugliest outing this season, Bradish is 11-6 with a 2.65 ERA and this is a guy who averages one strikeout per inning and also he dominated Washington when he faced them earlier this season! The Orioles right-hander had a fantastic August and is following it up with a dominant September.  The Orioles are on pace for at least 100 wins this season and 70% of their wins have been by at least a 2-run margin.  The Nationals are mired in a 8-19 slump and 17 of their last 18 defeats (94%!) have been by at least 2 runs! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Orioles big on the run line in this one.

#360 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -15 over Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The Illini are just 1-2 on the season but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country thus far already facing the best team in the MAC (Toledo), one of the better teams in the Big 12 (Kansas), and a top 10 team (Penn State). Now they take a big step down in competition and we think Bret Bielema and company are ready to paste someone. This looks like that spot as they face an FAU team that hasn’t been able to score points and now will be playing without their starting QB. The Owls have scored a grand total of 2 offensive TD’s in their 2 games vs FBS opponents (Ohio & Clemson) and both of those came last week @ Clemson when the Tigers already had a 41-0 lead and were already looking ahead to their game this week vs FSU. The Owls have averaged a ridiculously bad 3.3 YPP vs those 2 FBS teams which ranks them 132nd nationally (out of 133 teams). The Illinois defense was fantastic last season ranking 4th nationally in total defense and we expected a step back after losing some key players. They are still much better than they’ve shown thus far vs 3 high level offenses and now they get a reprieve and we expect the defense to shut down FAU. Last week they showed quite well holding a very good PSU offense to 4 YPC and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. This will be the Illini’s 3rd home game this season and in their first 2 they looked solid. They topped a very good Toledo team in week 1 and were impressive offensively averaging 6.1 YPP while holding the Rockets to 5.3 YPP. Last week they lost 30-13 here vs Penn State but that was a bit deceiving. The overall and YPP yardage was very close to even in that game. Problem was Illinois was -5 in turnovers and 4 of those giveaways led directly to 20 of PSU’s 30 points. Illinois does have their Big 10 opener @ Purdue on deck but coming off 2 losses we don’t expect them to be peaking ahead here. Bielema has never been afraid to win big vs inferior competition and he knows his team needs some confidence going into conference play. Blowout here.

#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue +6 over Wisconsin, Friday at 7 PM ET - We’re not about to lay points on the road with this transitioning Wisconsin team that has struggled with the changes early in the season. Their opening 21 point win over Buffalo is not all that impressive as the Bulls have since lost to FCS Fordham and then were destroyed at home by Liberty. Their lone road game was a 9 point loss @ Washington State and last week they were tied at 7-7 at home vs Georgia Southern at halftime but SIX GSU turnovers allowed Wisconsin to pull away. For the Badgers to be a 20.5 point favorite and only cover by a half point despite being +6 in turnovers is telling. This UW defense is not on par with previous editions. They don’t have any big time playmakers in the front 7 and their pass defense was shredded last weekend vs Georgia Southern for 383 yards through the air. After 3 games this pass defense ranks outside the top 100 in passing YPG allowed and outside the top 90 in opponent completion percentage. Now they face a solid Purdue passing game with Texas transfer QB Card at the helm who has thrown for 825 yards (65.5% completions) in 3 games. Purdue had a deceiving score as well last week due to turnovers but, unlike Wisconsin, they were the team turning the ball over. The Boilers lost to Syracuse but they were -4 in turnover margin while the total yardage was fairly close. We feel we’re getting some line value here as well. We have Syracuse and Wisconsin currently power rated about dead even yet the Badgers are laying 6 points this week and Cuse laid just 2.5 here last Saturday. UW has dominated this series as of late but their defense looks susceptible and the offense is still learning the ropes of their new scheme. We’ll call for this one to go down to the wire so the points should be valuable.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -10 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Really tough spot here for an NYG team that looks like they’ve regressed from last years playoff team. The Giants were @ Arizona last week and trailed 20-0 at half vs what we consider one of the 3 worst teams in the NFL. That means over their first 6 quarters of play this season, NY went scoreless (lost 40-0 vs Dallas in week 1). They did storm back to win last week 31-28 vs Arizona but San Francisco ain’t Arizona. Now on the west coast for the 2nd straight week (NYG did stay on the west coast after last week’s game but still not an ideal situation) but now facing one of the best defenses in the NFL, if NY gets down here, they won’t be making a huge comeback in our opinion. The Niners look like one of the two best teams in the NFC, along with Dallas, and they’ll be playing their home opener here. We were on SF last week and while they won by a TD (LA Rams kicked FG as time expired) is should really have been worse as the Niners outgained the Rams by +2.0 YPP. QB Purdy missed a few open deep shots that would have blown the game open. The 49ers currently sit 2nd in the NFL averaging 6.3 YPP and we expect them to have plenty of success on Sunday vs a Giant defense that allowed a bad Arizona offense to put up 6.3 YPP. That’s the same Arizona offense that averaged 3.6 YPP in week 1 vs Washington. New York is banged up with 2 starting offensive linemen out along with RB Barkley most likely out and their defense has allowed 68 points in 2 games. San Fran is stronger in the trenches on both sides of the ball and we don’t think NYG can keep up vs this defense. SF should roll here.

#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Rays are expected to start Aaron Civale. He has been victimized a bit by the long ball in recent starts but Civale also has held hitters to a .185 batting average this month and just 26 hits in 31 innings dating back to mid-August while striking out 42 in those 31 innings! Consider that the Angels expected starter here is Reid Detmers and he has a lower ERA in September than Civale but Detmers has been fortunate as opponents are hitting .280 against him in this two starts this month and, by the way, opponents hit .308 against him in the month of August. Detmers is 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA this season in his dozen road starts. Civale is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in night games this season and he has held hitters to a .215 batting average in those dozen starts. As we mentioned here yesterday, this Angels team has already packed it in for the season. Ohtani is now shut down for the season and they unloaded some veterans when they could with only Grichuk - now one of their top veteran hitters in the lineup - being stuck with the team. Trout has still been out and may not even play again this season. If you look at their current lineup they are fielding on a regular basis of late, it is no wonder that the Angels have lost 6 straight games and been outscored 38 to 13 in those 6 defeats. This Angels team is struggling badly and done for the year. The Rays are still in a battle for both the AL East title as well as the top record in the AL. Though the Rays entered this series off B2B losses, TB was on a 29-13 run prior to these consecutive defeats. As we mentioned here yesterday, they are happy to be back home after that tough series at Baltimore. Now, after yesterday's 6-2 win over the Angels, Tampa Bay has won 13 of last 17 on their home field. 10 of last 11 Rays home wins have come by at least 2 runs. 20 of last 26 Angels losses by at least 2 runs. This one should be another one that falls into that multi-run margin category! We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and having to lay only very small juice with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Rays are expected to start Taj Bradley.  He has been victimized a bit by the long ball in recent starts but Bradley also has held hitters to a .226 batting average since the All-Star break while striking out 38 over 29 innings!  Consider that the Angels expected starter here is Patrick Sandoval and he is 0-3 with a 6.59 ERA and opponents hitting .333 against him in the month of September.  Sandoval has really been struggling and though Bradley's numbers have not been great, this Angels team has already packed it in for the season.  Ohtani is now shut down for the season and they unloaded some veterans when they could with only Grichuk - now one of their top veteran hitters in the lineup - being stuck with the team.  Trout is still out and may not even play again this season.  If you look at their current lineup they are fielding on a regular basis of late, it is no wonder that the Angels have lost 5 straight games and been outscored 32 to 11 in those 5 defeats.  This Angels team is struggling badly and done for the year.  The Rays are still in a battle for the AL East title and top record in the AL.  Though off B2B losses, TB was on a 29-13 run prior to these consecutive defeats.  They are happy to be back home after a tough series at Baltimore and Tampa Bay has won 12 of last 16 on their home field.  9 of last 10 Rays home wins by at least 2 runs.  19 of last 25 Angels losses by at least 2 runs.  This one should be another one that falls into that multi-run margin category!  We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any juice with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#955 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over St Louis Cardinals, Monday at 7:45 PM ET - Freddy Peralta expected to start for Milwaukee and he is 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA since the All-Star break and has held hitters to a .159 batting average in those 11 starts! Adam Wainwright is having a rough season and is off his first win since the All-Star break. Though he got the win in that game Wainwright actually had a WHIP of 2.00 in the start with 7 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings.  Wainwright was far from dominant and his rough season includes a 1-7 mark with an 8.29 ERA since the All-Star break in his 9 starts. On the season, opponents are hitting .354 against him.  St Louis off a win over the Phillies yesterday but had lost 11 of 17 games heading into that one including 9 of last 13 home games prior to the tight win versus Philadelphia Sunday.  The Cardinals are dead last in the NL Central while the Brewers had won 3 straight games prior to yesterday's loss and remain at the top of the same division - the NL Central. Of course the Brewers are a rather high-priced money line favorite here for good reason. Where we get the value is with the run line and laying the 1.5 runs. The Cardinals have 58 of 83 losses this season by at least a 2-run margin. 57 of Milwaukee's 84 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. The Brewers last dozen wins have all been by multi-run margins and the average margin of victory was 4.3 runs in those 12 wins! The Cardinals have been slumping overall and 17 of their last 19 defeats have been by at least 2 runs! This game has road rout written all over it. We like the Brewers to bounce back back from yesterday's loss to the Nationals and Milwaukee gets it done on the run line in this one.

ASA top play 10* on #289 New Orleans Saints -3 at Carolina Panthers, Monday 7:15PM ET - The Panthers look like a team that is in for a long season. They’ve been hit hard on their offensive line already this season and start a rookie QB in Young. Young threw 2 INT’s last week and the offense managed just 3.9YPPL against a Falcons D that allowed 5.7YPPL in 2022. It will be tough sledding Monday night against a Saints defense that was 4th in Yards Per Play allowed a year ago at 5.0. The Saints hung on for a win in Week 1 against the Titans and looked much better than the 16-15 final margin. New Orleans put up over 350-total yards and averaged 5.5YPPL. Defensively they held the Titans to 285-total yards and 4.9YPPL. Saints QB Carr looked good in his Saint’s debut going 23/33 for 305YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT. If Young felt pressure last week against the Falcons, just wait until he gets a load of this Saints pass rush. To make this point, the Falcons, ranked 32nd or last in the NFL in sack percentage defense a year ago. In comparison, this Saints defense was 4th best in sack% at 8.22% in 2022. Last season the Panthers defense was around league average in YPPL allowed at 5.5. They were 23rd in opponents’ completion percentage allowed and 14th in Yards Per completion allowed at 10.1. Last week the Panthers D wasn’t tested by a Falcons passing attack that averaged just 6.1 yards per completion. Today Carolina’s secondary will get a stiff test from a Saints offense that wants to push the football down the field. The Saints lost to this Panthers team twice last season but outgained them in both meetings. Historically, the Panthers haven’t been anything special as a home dog but the Saints have been impressive as a road favorite with a 15-9 ATS record their last 24 with a +/- of +9PPG. Lay the points with the double-revenge road chalk.

#281 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers -7 over Los Angeles Rams, Sunday 4 PM ET - This line opened -4.5 and was quickly bet through several key numbers including 7 but we don’t feel the move is enough and will back San Francisco. The Rams are coming off a win in Seattle, but they did so with a revamped O-line which the Seahawks couldn’t take advantage of and pressure Stafford. L.A. also were thin at WR without Kupp (on PUP) and yet had two receivers go over 100-yards each. Was the Rams winning an indicator of how good they could be this season, or was it a better indicator of Seattle and what they are this season? The 49ers went into Pittsburgh and destroyed a Steelers team that many experts projected as a surprise team in the AFC this season. The Niners defense held the Steelers to 41-rushing yards after that unit averaged 121 YPG rushing a year ago. San Francisco outgained Pittsburgh 5.9 YPP to just 3.9 YPP in their dominating 30-7 win. The 49ers beat the Rams twice last season and have won 8 of the last nine meetings. In the two games last season the Niners outgained the Rams 6.7 YPP to 3.5 YPP and 7.1 YPP to 4.0 YPP in both games. They won by 17 and 15 points respectively. San Francisco had the second-best average Margin of Victory last season at +8.7 PPG. The Rams had the 28th worst average MOV at minus -4.5 PPG. We won’t be scared off by the move. Lay it!

#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Washington Nationals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - Brandon Woodruff is 18-5 combined the past two seasons! The Brewers right-hander has a 1.93 ERA this season and opponents are hitting just .161 against him. Patrick Corbin is 27-55 the past 4 seasons combined. His ERA is currently above 5.00 and this is the third straight season that the Nationals left-hander is producing an ERA above the 5.00 level. Corbin is off a rare quality start at Pittsburgh but this was preceded by allowing 14 earned runs in 9 innings over his two prior starts. Washington has lost 5 straight games and is dead last in the NL East while the Brewers have won 3 straight and are at the top of the NL Central! Of course the Brewers are a high-priced money line favorite here for good reason. Where we get the value is with the run line and laying the 1.5 runs. The Nationals have 64 of 84 losses this season by at least a 2-run margin. 57 of Milwaukee's 84 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. The Brewers last dozen wins have all been by multi-run margins and the average margin of victory was 4.3 runs in those 12 wins! The Nationals are mired in a 4-15 slump and 13 of their last 14 defeats have been by at least 2 runs! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one.

#278 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Bengals looked downright terrible last week and we like them to bounce back at home on Sunday after that embarrassing performance. We were on the Browns, so we expected a Cleveland win. What we did not expect is Cincinnati to pick up only 6 first downs, QB Burrow throwing for less than 100 yards, and converting only 2 of 15 third downs. The Browns defense looked outstanding and they were aided by bad weather conditions (wind & rain) which prevented Cincinnati from utilizing their normally strong passing game. Let’s not pretend Baltimore had a great first outing. The topped Houston, one of the worst teams in the NFL, 25-9 but the yardage was about dead even and averaged only 4.6 YPP. Defensively they allowed rookie QB Stroud to have a solid day completing 28 of 44 attempts for 242 yards. The Ravens came out of that game with a number of key injuries that will affect their game on Sunday. RB Dobbins tore his achilles and is out for the season. Their starting LT and Center are both out for this game along with their top cover CB Humphrey and starting safety. Key TE target Andrews may also have to sit this one out. Joe Burrow is 4-1 SU vs the Ravens since taking over as Cincy’s starting QB with the only loss coming by 2 points @ Baltimore in 2021. In his 5 starts vs Baltimore, Burrow has thrown for almost 1,600 yards with 9 TD’s and a passer rating of 101. This is a must win for Cincinnati. They can’t afford to drop to 0-2. Let’s not forget this team was in the Super Bowl 2 years ago and almost made it back last year losing a close game @ KC in the AFC Championship game. Dating back 30+ years, NFL teams that made the playoffs the previous year (good team) coming off a division loss in week 1, playing another division game in week 2, are 12-1 SU. Great situation for a really good team that had a bad week 1. Bounce back time.

#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Troy -2.5 over James Madison, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Troy is back home after getting waxed @ Kansas State last week which wasn’t a big surprise as the Wildcats are one of the better teams in the country. In that loss we were impressed with Troy’s defense as they held a very good KSU offense to 5.7 YPP and on the ground the Cats averaged less than 4.0 YPC. It was a 2 score game early in the 4th quarter when KSU added a few late TD’s to make this score look worse than in probably should have been at 42-13. The Trojans won their first game big over Stephen F Austin (a decent FCS team) despite turning the ball over 4 times they had 523 yards of offense. Now we get last year’s Sun Belt Champs (Troy), who finished 12-2 last season, back at home with a light number. We haven’t been overly impressed with JMU through their first 2 games. They are 2-0 but wins over FCS Bucknell, who has a 5-21 record their last 26 games, and a come from behind win over a bad Virginia team last week. That was a huge win for James Madison taking down the instate big boy UVA but let’s not forget JMU was nearly a TD favorite on the road in that game and won 36-35 on a TD with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game. The Cavs are one of the worst Power 5 teams in the nation and JMU was outplayed in that 1 point win. UVA led that game by double digits in the 4th quarter, outgained the Dukes on a YPP basis, and the Cavs true freshman QB (back up but playing for injured starter) who stands 5’11 and has zero experience threw for 377 yards on the James Madison defense. They put up 35 points on JMU after scoring 10 points in their opener vs Tennessee. UVA averaged 6.5 YPP vs James Madison last weekend after averaging just 3.0 YPP vs the Vols. Looks like we have a big edge defensively with the host here and the Trojans also have a very experienced QB Watson (4 year starter) has thrown for over 7,000 yards in his career. Dating back to early in the 2021 season, Troy has now won 11 of their last 12 home games and we’re more than comfortable laying this small number with them on Saturday.

#156 ASA PLAY ON 8* Oregon State -24.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - SDSU steps into this game with a 2-1 record but they are not a good team right now. We currently have them power rated barely inside the top 100 and this is their first road game of the season. Their opening win came vs Ohio 20-13 and the Bobcats lost their starting QB early in that game and SDSU still had 9 fewer first downs and they were outgained in the game. Then they squeaked by Idaho State 36-28 as a 34 point favorite. That’s the same Idaho State team that just lost 78-28 vs Utah State last Saturday and has a record of 2-22 SU their last 24 games! Last week they finally faced a formidable opponents and UCLA blasted them on the road 35-10 with the Aztecs allowing over 8.0 YPP while being held to just 3.6 YPP. It could have been worse as UCLA led 28-10 at half but fumbled on 2 of their 5 possessions in the 2nd half including once inside the SDSU 10 yard line. Throw out their game vs a terrible FCS opponent (Idaho State) and San Diego State is averaging just 15 PPG and ranks outside the top 100 in scoring (15 PPG), total offense (284 YPG) and offensive efficiency (4.3 YPP). We don’t think they can keep up with Oregon State in this game. The Beavers have scored 97 points in 2 games and their starting QB Uiagalelei (former Clemson starting QB) has been fantastic completing 73% of his passes with 5 TD’s and 0 picks. That’s to go along with a rushing attack that had put up 466 yards in 2 games behind one of the top offensive lines in the country. The OSU defense is allowing less than 2 YPC and facing a SDSU passing attack that is not good with former safety Mayden playing QB (just over 400 yards passing in 3 games). The Beavs have had to punt only 4 times in 2 games this season and we don’t see them doing much of that today vs a defense that allowed over 8 YPP last week vs a fellow Pac 12 team. We felt the Beavers were underrated coming into this year (we cashed with them in the opening weekend vs San Jose State) and they’ve proven us correct. This one will get ugly.

#131 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LSU -9.5 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - LSU got a lot of negative publicity for getting rolled in their season opener vs Florida State but they bounced back last week, in what could have been a flat spot vs Grambling, and won big 72-10. Even a closer look at that FSU game tells us the Tigers played pretty well for about 3 quarters before the wheels fell off against what most now consider a top 5 team in the country. That game vs Florida State was tied at 17-17 late in the 3rd quarter and LSU averaged over 7.0 YPP and the total yardage was pretty close with the Noles having a slight advantage. The 21 point FSU win was a bit deceiving. MSU has been underwhelming under new head coach Zach Arnett who was the Bulldogs DC but took over late last year when Mike Leach passed away. Arnett has never been a head coach prior to this so advantage to veteran Brian Kelly and LSU in that regard. MSU’s new offensive coordinator has tried to get away from the full air raid type offense and run the ball more, although it looks like the personnel that was recruited for the air raid doesn’t necessarily fit the new scheme. So far in 2 games, the Bulldogs have run the ball 78 times while attempting only 46 passes. That’s from an MSU team that AVERAGED 49 pass attempts per game last year leading the nation. And it’s not like they’ve been lighting it up on the ground. Last week the Dogs averaged just 3.7 YPC vs an Arizona defense that allowed 5.5 YPC last year ranking 128th nationally. Mississippi State won that game 31-24 in OT but they were outgained by 125 yards, the Dogs were +4 in turnover margin for the game, and it still took OT for them to win that game at home vs a lower tier Pac 12 team. Now they are facing an LSU team that we still have power rated as one of the top 10 teams in the nation. Last year when these 2 met, it was early in the season, MSU was considered the better team at the time, LSU was still learning Brian Kelly’s systems in his first year as HC, and the Tigers still won by 15 points outgained the Bulldogs 419 to 289. Now the roles are reversed and we see LSU cruising in this game vs an MSU offense that will struggle and a defense that allowed 6.0 YPP to Arizona last week. Lay it.

#104 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia -6 over Minnesota, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - With this line sitting less than a TD, we’ll be on the Eagles here. Philly didn’t play very well last week but still picked up a 25-20 win @ New England. QB Hurts, who didn’t play in the preseason, was rusty but should play much better at home in his 2nd game on Thursday night. We expected a significant regression from the Vikings this season after they finished 13-4 last year but their metrics were more in line with a .500 type team. Minnesota actually had a negative point differential last season despite their record and they were outgained by 0.4 YPP (5.5 YPP offense / 5.9 YPP defense). The luck factor was heavily in Minnesota’s corner last year as they went a ridiculous 11-0 SU in one score games (regular season). Last week they lost at home vs a suspect Tampa team as a favorite. QB Cousins has never been great in prime time (Monday night, Thursday night, or Sunday night) with an 11-18 SU record. The Eagles dominated this meeting last year beating Minnesota 24-7 outgaining the Vikings 7.1 YPP to 4.5 YPP. We don’t see anything changing here. Lay it with the host.

#926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Mariners to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Seattle is expected to send Logan Gilbert to the mound to start this one.  As for the Angels, Reid Detmers will be the likely starter for Los Angeles here.  Seattle's Gilbert is 13-5 this season and he has a 3.34 ERA in night games.  He is 8-0 since July 1st and has an ERA under 3.00 since then!  The Angels Detmers is 3-10 this season including 1-6 with a 5.60 ERA on the road this season.  Detmers is 1-4 with a 5.80 ERA since the All-Star break.  The Mariners have lost 3 straight games but they just faced the Rays in Tampa Bay.  They now go from facing one of the best teams in baseball on the road to now hosting one of the majors' worst teams.  Yes the Angels are in a free-fall despite rare B2B wins.  They were outhit 8 to 3 in yesterday's 2-1 win and if you look at their lineup it is currently a shell of what it used to be.  No wonder the Angels had lost 26 of 35 games prior to the rare B2B wins.  By the way, LA has not won 3 straight games since July so the odds certainly favor Seattle getting the win here.  In terms of a big-margin win, 16 of the Angels last 20 losses have been by 2 or more runs.  Also, the Mariners have one of the top bullpens in MLB while the Angels have one of the worst.  Also, Seattle has not lost 4 straight games since April so this is a great spot from a technical standpoint in terms of putting the odds in our favor.  Angels off B2B wins, Mariners off 3 straight losses, and the likelihood (based on odds) of what comes next!  Seattle is 24-12 in divisional games this season and 57 of Mariners 79 wins this season have been by a multi-run margin.  All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Mariners. Lay it! 

#480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY GIANTS + over DALLAS, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - First off, we love looking at home underdogs vs a division opponent in week 1. That situation has been money in the bank with the host dogs covering 21 of the last 26 in that spot. On top of that, division dogs in general in week 1 are 41-21 ATS over the last decade. Dallas gets all the publicity in this one but let’s not forget the Giants made the playoffs last season and won a game @ 13-4 Minnesota in the Wild Card round. We really like NYG head coach Daboll and now they are in their 2nd year under him so we look for an improved team in 2023. We’re hearing QB Daniel Jones played outstanding in camp and has a great grasp of the offense in his 2nd season under OC Kafka and Daboll. Dallas was 8-1 at home last season but only 4-4 on the road. QB Dak Prescott didn’t play in the pre-season which we feel is a negative for the offense in game 1 and he led the NFL in interceptions last year despite missing 5 games. He also loses his offensive coordinator Moore who is now with the Chargers and HC Mike McCarthy will call plays which we think is a negative. The Giants defensive line is one of the best in the NFL and we look for an improved secondary with some additions through free agency and the draft. Dallas won both games last season but both were tight 1 score games and we really expect NYG to be drastically improved. This line tells us Dallas is 6 points better on a neutral and if this was in Dallas be laying almost 10 – No way – we’re not so sure NYG won’t be the better team this season. Take the points.

#457/458 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Browns + vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 1 PM ET - In Week 1 we will back this Divisional Underdog which falls into a very profitable system dating back several years. In the last eight years if you had blindly bet Divisional Dogs in Wk #1, you would have produced a 31-13-2 ATS record or 70.4% returns. Cleveland is a team that we feel could be a contender in the AFC with a loaded roster on both sides of the football. Much of the Browns success will hinge on QB Deshaun Watson and how quickly he becomes the player he was in Houston. In case you’ve forgotten, Watson threw for over 12,800 yards in three seasons with the Texans with 85 TD’s and 28 INT’s. He also rushed for over 400 yards in those same three years. He’s got one of the best running backs in football with Nick Chubb who rushed for over 1,500 yards last season. Defensively the Browns will be a top 10 unit in our opinion by season’s end. They added Za’Darious Smith and defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson along with a new defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz. In 5 seasons with the Eagles, Schwartz produced a pair of top five defenses and his units never finished worse than 15th. Bengals QB Joe Burrow comes into this season the same way he did last season. He missed the preseason action with an injury a year ago and it showed in the opening few weeks of the season. In the opener last year he was outplayed by Steelers QB Trubisky when he threw 4 INT’s and was just 33 of 53 passing with 338 yards. There is a ton of hype surrounding the Bengals and they will again be an explosive offense once Burrow gets settled in, but their defense isn’t top 15 in our preseason rankings. The Bengals D allowed 337YPG (17th) and 5.4YPPL (16th) last season but benefited from +1.5 takeaways per game which was 8th best in the NFL. We like the Browns to be a surprise contender this season and we won’t be shocked when they win this game outright.

#463 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tennessee Titans + at New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET - If you back road Dogs in a Week 1 game that the O/U is 46 or less, you would be 34-13-3 ATS the last 50 times that situation has presented itself. Those numbers are impressive, but the real key in this game is the fact that Titans are possibly the better team getting points. Tennessee added a playmaking WR in Hopkins, which they sorely missed last season after losing AJ Brown. They have a healthy QB in Ryan Tannehill who is coming off a down season a year ago after throwing for over 3,700 yards in each of his two previous seasons. The offense will once again revolve around RB Derrick Henry who continues to be one of the most productive running backs in the NFL. The Titans defense had major defensive injuries a season ago and still finished 19th in DVOA. They are ferocious up front and will be one of the best defensive lines in the NFL at pressuring opposing QB’s. The Saints have an aging roster and will turn to QB Derek Carr to right the ship in New Orleans. The Saints were 22nd in the league in scoring a year ago at 19.4PPG, 18th in total YPG and 21st in Points Per Play. New Orleans, once dominant rushing attack, averaged just 4.3-Yards Per Rush which was 20th in the league last year. The Titans are 26-12-1 ATS as a dog since 2018 with a negative differential of minus just -1.4PPG. The Saints are 6-8 ATS as a chalk since Drew Brees retired

#342 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA -13.5 over Texas State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the home team. Texas State is in prime letdown area coming off a huge upset @ Baylor as 28 point dogs. Baylor outgained Texas State 524 to 441 but also had 9 penalties. Coming into the season Texas State had 71 new players (2nd most in the nation) and a new coach (Kinne) who came over from Incarnate Word (FCS school). They played well last Saturday but also picked up a number of breaks and they are still learning a new system on both sides of the ball. They are taking on a veteran UTSA coming off a 17-14 loss @ Houston as a 2 point road favorite. The Roadrunners drastically outplayed Houston averaging 5.9 YPP to just 4.6 for the Cougars but had 3 turnovers (0 for Houston) which was the difference in the game. UTSA dominated in the trenches with 208 yards rushing on 5.9 YPC while holding Houston to only 101 yards rushing on 2.7 YPC. UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor was not happy after the loss. “We didn’t play winning football,” said Traylor. “Two-thirds of the triangle we did. We held them to 100 yards rushing. We were physical. I’m proud of that. Offensively, we rushed for over 200 yards. You can tell we can impose our will with our three running backs. Our passing game was not very clean. Obviously, three turnovers are hard to overcome.” Now we get a veteran UTSA team with 15 starters back after finishing with an 11-3 record last year, at home after a loss they should have won. Roadrunner Senior QB Harris (4 year starter) has been fabulous with nearly 10,000 yards passing and 76 TD’s and he’s coming off one of his worst games in recent memory (3 interceptions). You can bet he’ll play much better against this Texas State defense that allowed over 500 yards on 7.0 YPP last week. Meanwhile, we don’t anticipate the Texas State offense having anywhere near the amount of success they had last week facing a UTSA defense that held a potent Houston offense to 4.6 YPP last week. Teams coming off an outright win as a dog of 20 or more points have only covered 44% of the time the following week (Texas State). This line is too low in our opinion based on last week’s deceiving results so we’ll lay the points with UTSA.

#351 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois +3 over Kansas, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. This line says that these 2 teams would be around a pick-em on a neutral field and we have the Illini with the higher power rating. The Illini won a tight game last week 30-28 vs a very good Toledo team. The Rockets won the MAC last year and we have them as the best team in that conference again this season. A quick look at the stats says that Toledo outgained Illinois but they also ran 18 more offensive snaps. If we break it down into a yards per play situation, Illinois actually outgained the Rockets by nearly a full 1.0 YPP. The staunch Illini defense, which finished 2nd nationally in YPP allowed and 4th in total defense last year, held a potent Toledo attack to just 5.2 YPP. The offense looked solid putting up over 6 YPP and new QB transfer Altmyer, from Ole Miss, had over 200 yards passing and 2 TD’s to go along with 70 yards rushing. They should be able to put points on the board vs a Kansas defense that finished 120th last year allowing 6.3 YPP. The Jayhawks picked up an easy win on week 1 vs a Missouri State (FCS) team that had a losing season last year so no big surprise. The final score in that one was 48-17 but the Jayhawks led just 27-17 with 10 minutes remaining in the game. KU is a bit overvalued coming into the season. After getting tabbed as an underdog in 10 of their 12 games (vs FBS teams) last year and they’ve been getting points 27 of their last 29 games vs FBS opponents. Now they are now laying a full FG to a team that finished 8-5 last year and had a winning record in Big 10 play. The Illini come in tested after a tight win vs a solid team while KU was not tested. We’ll take Illinois as a dog here.

#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Diamondbacks to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Arizona is expected to send Merrill Kelly to the mound to start this one. Kelly is 10-6 this season and has been particularly tough at home. Kelly has a 2.96 ERA in games at Chase Field this season and opponents are hitting just .187 against him in those 12 starts. As for Colorado, Peter Lambert will be the likely starter for the Rockies here. He went 1-4 with a 5.23 ERA in his 6 starts last month.  In his MLB career, Lambert is 6-12 with a 6.36 ERA and opponents are hitting .303 against him in his MLB career. Also, the Rockies bullpen has a 5.32 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors! The Diamondbacks bullpen has not been great but they are better than the Rockies!  Colorado has been dreadful on the road again this season as, overall, the Rockies are 21-48 this season in road games including losses in 27 of last 35 away from home!  Also, they are 22-58 this season against teams with a winning record. Additionally, 68 of the Rockies 86 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. 53 of Arizona's 70 wins this season have come by a multi-run margin.  The Diamondbacks are tied with 3 other teams - Marlins, Reds, Giants - for the 3rd and final wild card spot (amazing 4-way tie now) in the NL with just 25 games remaining in the season.  Arizona is still fighting hard while the Rockies are dead last in the entire NL and simply can't wait for the season to be over.  The Dbacks are 38-21 against teams with a losing record and are off B2B losses but had won 8 of 9 home games prior to the tough defeats to the Orioles.  All the edges point to the home team and another big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Diamondbacks. Lay it! 

#233 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State (-) over San Jose State, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET - SJSU has one game under their belts getting whipped by USC last week 56-28. The Spartan defense gave up over 500 total yards and forced USC to punt only twice in the game. San Jose did put up a solid 28 points on a USC defense that looks to be weak again this season. Last year the Trojans finished outside the top 100 in total defense which is head coach Lincoln Riley’s MO – great offense, bad defense. This week will be much more difficult as the Spartans face an undervalued Oregon State team that had the top defense in the Pac 12 last year allowing 338 YPG. Offensively, the Beavers should have big time success, similar to what USC did last season. This offense is underrated in our opinion. They averaged 29 PPG last season but we expect that to jump to closer to 40 PPG this season. QB DJ Uiagalelei who was the starter at Clemson the last 2 seasons, will be under center. Word from Corvallis is he has looked fantastic leading up to this one. He’ll operate behind a very experienced offensive line that we rate as one of the best in the country. The rushing attack averaged right around 200 YPG last year and with their 3 headed monster in the backfield (Martinez, Newell, and Fenwick) behind that offensive line we look for this to be one of the top rushing teams in the nation. Many might think that because SJSU played last week they have the advantage. That simply isn’t the case. In fact, it’s the reverse. OSU now has game film to prepare for this game while San Jose does not. Since 2005, teams playing for the first time in a season facing a team that played the previous week are 56-33 ATS (63%). We feel that OSU will be able to move the ball on the Spartans nearly as well as USC did last week, however SJSU won’t have the luxury of facing a bad defense this week. Lay it.

#979 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - Even if you call the pitching match-up even - and we do not feel that way as the Blue Jays have an edge - the fact is Toronto has a huge overall team edge and the stronger batting lineup and better bullpen.  The Rockies season is over and they have lost 4 straight games and are 21-57 this season against teams with a winning record.  The Blue Jays are in a dogfight for a playoff berth as they are having another strong season and are also 36-19 this season against teams with a losing record.  You can see the odds strongly favor another road win here and Toronto won yesterday's game 13 to 9.  The Blue Jays 74 wins this season have included 51 by a mult-run margin.  The Rockies 85 losses have included a whopping 67 by a multi-run margin.  The Jays Kikuchi is 9-4 with a 3.63 ERA this season.  The Rockies Blach has worked out of the bullpen for much of his career and he has a 4.97 ERA in his career and has been hit at a .295 batting average this season.  More of the same expected here and the Colorado bullpen is a weakness also.  We will lay the run line with the road team in this evening game Saturday!

#188 ASA PLAY ON 8* TCU -20.5 over Colorado, Saturday at 12 PM ET - There has been extreme hype regarding new Colorado head coach Deion Sanders but we feel the product on the field will come nowhere near the fan fare the Buffs have received in the offseason due to the coaching change. The fact is, Sanders cut bait with a vast majority of his CU players from last year and at one point in the spring they had only 20 scholarship players still on the team out of the 83 that were on Colorado last year. He’s had to scramble to fill spot with transfers and we expect the continuity early in the season to be an issue. Granted we have a number of new faces for Colorado, however they were brutal last year finish last in CFB in PPG margin and YPG margin. A huge jump will be tough for Sanders to pull off especially early in the season. These 2 met last season in Boulder and TCU rolled up a big 38-13 road win. Starting QB Morris was injured in that game and replaced by Max Duggan who went onto have a great season. Fact is, Morris beat out Duggan last year and is now back and 100% this season so we don’t expect a drop off at that key position. He has some top of the line offensive weapons to work with along with a solid offensive line. The defense returns 7 starters and let’s not forget this TCU team won 13 games last season and played in the National Championship game. That game, an embarrassing 65-7 loss to Georgia, gave this team some huge motivation in the offseason to come back and prove a point and that starts at home on Saturday. Someone who covers TCU closely told us that he feels this is one of the deeper teams they’ve had and definitely the most athletic in his 18 years of following the Frogs. With the temps pushing 100 degrees in Fort Worth on Saturday, depth will be a key and while TCU has a lot of it, Colorado has very little proven depth. We’ll lay the number here and expect TCU to win big.

#145 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +7 over Minnesota, Thursday at 8 PM ET - The Huskers start a new regime with former Temple, Baylor, and Carolina Panther coach Matt Rhule at the helm. He turned around the Temple and Baylor programs and we have no doubt he’ll get Nebraska headed in the right direction. Unlike his first year stops with the Owls and Bears, he has some solid talent here at Nebraska. It’s not total rebuild as the others were. The offensive line is experienced with 120 career starts which is 2nd only to Michigan in the Big 10. New QB Sims has started for 3 years @ Georgia Tech prior to this season and has 4500 passing yards, 1200 rushing yards, and 41 TD’s to his credit. He has a big experience edge over new Gopher QB Kaliakmanis who started some games last year for an injured Tanner Morgan but completed only 54% of his passes and threw more interceptions than TD’s. Minnesota has relied heavily on their running game but lost the schools all time leading rusher Ibrahim to the NFL and his back up Potts transferred to Penn State. The Minny O Line ranks 108th nationally in returning starts to they have some inexperience up front as well. The Gophs defense was very good last season but lost 7 of their top 11 tacklers and we think that Nebraska can keep them guessing with this new offense Rhule brings. With Scott Frost at the helm, the Huskers found ways to lose games whether it was poor special teams play, turnovers, etc… They were close to being decent to say the least with 13 of their 17 losses the last 2 seasons coming by one score or fewer (8 points or less). This series has seen 3 games in a row decided by 7 exactly points and we think Rhule will clean some things up and they’ll play more efficiently. This is expected to be a low scoring game (43 is the total) and we like it to be a close one. Take the points here.

#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - Stop the presses...the A's actually won a game against a good team yesterday. All kidding aside, it has absolutely been a dreadful season for Oakland and so wins catch some attention especially over good teams. Not only is Oakland 20-63 against teams with a winning record, they are also 7-29 in divisional games and an insane 9-44 in day games! The Mariners had won 12 of 13 games prior to yesterday's loss and they are 25-7 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the Athletics shocking everyone by winning this series by notching B2B wins. Seattle is 43-24 against teams with a losing record and 23-12 in divisional games. Oakland very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The Athletics last 24 losses have included plenty of ugly ones and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 70 of Oaklands 94 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 56 of 75 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. As for the pitchers here, Bryce Miller is now 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA in home games and 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA in day games! He has held opponents to a .218 batting average in his 11 home starts this season. Oakland's Zach Neal has struggled at the minor league level so it is no surprise his major league numbers are unimpressive as well. Neal had a 6.87 ERA in the minors last season and had a 5.40 ERA this season which also has been the 4th straight year at the minor league level in which Neal has allowed at least a .292 batting average! No big surprise that Neal has been hit at a .324 clip for the A's this season and walks have also been an issue for him. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 3rd in the majors while the Athletics pen ranks dead last at 30th in MLB! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 12 of their last 15 wins coming by a margin of at least 2 runs. Note the 94 to 30 combined score in those 12 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the home team in this day game Wednesday!

#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - The Astros are 41-20 this season against teams with a losing record.  The Tigers are 30-47 against teams with a winning record this season.  Detroit has not played well at home this season as they are 8 games below .500 when hosting.  The Tigers 11 of last 12 losses have been defeats by a multi-run margin.  The Astros have won 11 of last 17 road games and 12 of their last 15 victories have been by 2 or more runs.  More of the same expected here as Houston got back on track with a big 9-2 win yesterday and they have the pitching edge here in addition to the overall team edge.  Astros bullpen ranks 8th for team ERA while the Tigers bullpen ranks 18th for team ERA this season.  Houston's slugging percentage in road games ranks 5th in the majors while Detroit's slugging percentage in home games ranks 28th in the majors.  In terms of starting pitching, the Tigers Alex Faedo continues to give up big hits and have those trouble spots.  Yes, Faedo has been better than last season's 1-5 with a 5.53 ERA on the year but still this season he has a 5.65 ERA in home games and this is a tough spot for him facing the defending champs.  Conversely, the Astros again have Justin Verlander on their squad after getting him back from the Mets.  Verlander was with the Tigers for more than a dozen years to start his career so this is always a special start for him facing the team he started his career with nearly 20 years ago.  Verlander comes into the start producing very well as usual and he has been red hot since the start of July and it has carried into his move back to Houston this month.  it continues here against the light-hitting Tigers!  We’ll lay the -1.5 here.

#121 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Both teams plan to play their starters in this game which gives the Bills a solid edge. How long the regulars play is in question for both teams, but even when the starters come out, Buffalo is the deeper and better team and laying under a FG is a decent play here. The Bills are coming off a 27-15 loss @ Pittsburgh last weekend. In that game, the Bills outgained the Steelers 5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP but Buffalo had 13 penalties (just 4 for Pittsburgh) and they turned the ball over 4 times. 17 of Pittsburgh’s 25 points came on drives of 25, 13, and -1 yards. A week earlier the Bills beat Indy and outgained the Colts by 1.2 YPP so they’ve outgained both opponents by more than 1.0 YPP. Chicago is also 1-1 (loss vs Colts & win vs Titans) but they’ve been outgained in both games (total yards). Our word is Justin Fields continues to struggle with accuracy in camp and while he is 3 for 3 in the preseason, 2 of his passes were short dump offs to WR Moore and RB Herbert that went for big yardage (both TD’s). We like the better, deeper team to close out the preseason with a win. Lay the small number with Buffalo.

#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Reds off double-header sweep on the road yesterday and now on the road again for this one. That makes this a tough spot for Cincinnati and they are running into a tough hurler too. The Diamondbacks are starting Merrill Kelly in this one and he is 7-3 with a 2.51 ERA in his night starts this season. Opponents are hitting just .206 against him in his evening games and just .200 against him in his home starts. The Reds are expected to counter with Brandon Williamson here. He has a 5.24 ERA in night games this season and a 4.43 ERA so far in the month of August. Williamson is facing an Arizona team that has won 9 of 11 games and 7 of those 9 wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The Reds have now won 3 straight games but this was on the heels of a 5-12 stretch for Cincinnati and 9 of those 12 losses were by a multi-run margin. That is why, instead of laying the bigger juice on the money line in this one, we turn to the run line for maximum line value here. The hosts should roll big in this one.   We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the +125 comeback range with the Diamondbacks. Lay the 1.5 runs here! 

#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - Seattle has won the first two games of this series by an aggregate score of 20 to 5! The Mariners have won 8 straight games and are 21-5 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the White Sox slowing them down in the finale of this 3-game series. Chicago is 21-50 this season against teams with a winning record. Seattle is 39-22 against teams with a losing record. The White Sox have lost 20 of 28 games (28.6% winning percentage!) after dropping the first two games of this series! Chicago very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The White Sox have 23 losses since the All Star break and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 55 of Chicago's 77 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 53 of 71 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The White Sox play in the AL Central division which is the weakest in all of MLB. They have a winning record (19-17) in divisional games but are 30-60 this season outside of their division! As for the pitchers here, George Kirby is in his 2nd season in the majors and, just like his rookie season, he has been consistently solid. He is now 18-13 with a 3.30 ERA in his 49 career MLB starts and has held opponents to a .187 batting average in his 3 starts in the month of August. Chicago's Michael Kopech has a poor record again this year and now has a combined 10-20 record since the start of last season. Kopech has particularly struggled since the start of July as he had a 6.61 ERA in his 4 starts last month and has a 9.88 ERA in his 3 starts this month. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 4th in the majors while the White Sox pen ranks 26th in MLB! This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 9 of their last 11 wins. Note the 65-23 combined score in those 9 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the road team in this day game Wednesday!

#923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-125) over Cleveland Guardians, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 13 of 14 games and is 17-2 last 19 games plus 62 of the Dodgers 76 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers are looking like they are getting primed for a huge post-season run and this includes rookie Bobby Miller providing a strong push for this team!  Miller is 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA in road starts this season!  He also is dominating August with a 1.15 ERA in his 3 starts for the month. Now he can dominate a Guardians team that has never faced him!  As for Noah Syndergaard against the Dodgers, LA has a number of hitters that have experience against him. Also, Syndergaard has certainly not been at his best this season!  He enters this start having allowed at least 5 earned runs in 5 of his last 7 starts!  More of the same is likely here as the Dodgers stay hot while Cleveland's tough run continues.  The Guardians have lost 22 of 36 games.  Also, just because they are at home for this series does not mean they will right the ship!  Cleveland has lost 7 of last 10 home games!  19 of the last 25 Guardians losses were by 2+ runs! The Dodgers have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their current run of 17-2 last 19 games! As you can see above, the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday. 

#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Chicago White Sox, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - The Mariners have won 6 straight games and are 19-5 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the White Sox slowing them down in Game One of this series. Chicago is 21-48 this season against teams with a winning record.  Seattle is 37-22 against teams with a losing record.  The White Sox enter this game off a rare win and had lost 18 of 25 games (28% winning percentage!) before that win! Chicago very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The White Sox have 21 losses since the All Star break and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs!  On the season, 53 of Chicago's 75 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin.  51 of 69 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin.  The White Sox play in the AL Central division which is the weakest in all of MLB. They have a winning record (19-17) in divisional games but are 30-58 this season outside of their division! As for the pitchers here, Luis Castillo had a 2.99 ERA and held opponents to a .212 batting average last season and he is at it again this year.  Castillo has compiled a 3.23 ERA and has held hitters to a .216 batting average on the year.  Chicago's Touki Toussaint is on his 4th team in 3 seasons so that says a lot about him.  He is struggling again this year with a 1-5 record and he has a 5.14 ERA in his MLB career. Toussaint is winless with a 6.91 ERA in his 3 starts this month.  In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 3rd in the majors while the White Sox pen ranks 26th in MLB!  This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 7 of their 8 wins before Sunday's tight 1-run win at Houston. Note the 45-18 combined score in those 7 blowout wins.  We will lay the run line with the road team in this one! 

#426 ASA PLAY ON 8* LA Rams +3.5 over Las Vegas Raiders, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Rams head coach McVay set the precedent for sitting nearly everyone in the preseason a few years ago. He decided to sit his starters and many of his key reserves for the entire exhibition schedule. That will change this year. McVay, offensive coordinator LaFleur, and GM Snead have all stated their approach to this year’s preseason slate will be different. Last year they were coming off a Super Bowl win and had the luxury of sitting guys. This year, the Rams are coming off a 5 win season and many of the starting spots are up for grabs which should lead to a competitive situation for LA in the preseason with key players fighting for spots. While we expect the Rams to play many of their regulars, the Raiders have stated they will sit their starters. The Rams come into this one off a loss last week vs the Chargers. The Raiders are off a deceiving blowout 34-7 win over the Niners. In that game, despite the final score, Vegas was outgained and averaged only 4.5 YPP in the win. Rookie QB O’Connell from Purdue, was lights out completing 15 of 18 passes. We expect him to come back to earth a bit this week after struggling in their joint practices with the Rams this week. San Fran gifted the Raiders many of their points last week as the final 4 scoring drives by Las Vegas averaged just 19 yards. We would doubt QB Stafford plays for the Rams here but Stetson Bennett and Brett Rypien weren’t bad completing 20 of 35 for a TD with the offense scoring 17 points. The Rams didn’t play as bad as their final score last week while the Raiders didn’t play as well as their score may have indicated. We look for McVay to put an emphasis on this game coming off a loss and we like the Rams getting points at home.

#978 ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Twins to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Minnesota is expected to send Sonny Gray to start this one. Gray is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his 3 August starts and has struck out 25 while walking just 3 in his 19 innings this month! As for the Pirates, Mitch Keller will be the likely starter here. Keller is 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA in his 6 starts since the All-Star break and he has been hit at a .340 clip in these 6 outings! On the season Keller has a 5.00 ERA on the road and a 5.03 ERA in night games. Also, Twins are heating up again with wins in 4 of their last 5 and their 2nd half record being mediocre overall was certainly impacted by being road-heavy. This will be just their 13th home game since the break and they have had wins in 9 of 12 home games since the break. Also, 55 of the Pirates 68 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. Minnesota has gone 37-28 against teams with a losing record this season. Pittsburgh is 28-50 against teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and Minnesota's 64 wins this season have featured 48 of the 64 (75%) coming by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +120 money range with the Twins. Lay it!

#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs (-115) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET - Similar to our play on the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw last night, Boston's Chris Sale is a recent returnee from injury with one start under his belt since the return. Just like last night's blowout win for LA, we expect a similar result here and this time it is with the Red Sox at Washington. Sale had a stint on the injured list but has had a solid run and began August looking like he is ready to pick up right where he left off in early June after finding his stride this season with a solid month of May in particular. Over his last 7 starts, Sale has delivered a 2.43 ERA with a solid 48 strikeouts against just 5 walks in the 42 innings spanning those 7 starts. He should dominate here at Washington and he should get plenty of run support. Patrick Corbin is the expected starter for the Nationals and he is having another rough season. Corbin now has a record of 24-53 since the start of the 2020 season and opponents are hitting .323 against him in his home starts this year! Since the start of the 2020 season he has allowed an opponents batting average north of .300 and the Red Sox should pound him here. Boston is 21-13 against left-handed starters this season. On the season, 47 of 63 Red Sox wins and 49 of 67 Nationals losses have been by a multi-run margin. Washington is 30-43 against teams with a winning record this season. Boston has a respectable bullpen while the Nationals bullpen has an ERA that ranks dead last in the National League. As you can see above, the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs in afternoon action Thursday.

#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-105) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 9 straight games and us 13-1 last 14 games plus 59 of the Dodgers 72 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers are looking like they are getting primed for a huge post-season run and this includes Clayton Kershaw. He went 4-0 with a 1.09 ERA in June and held hitters to a .181 batting average for the month. He then had a stint on the injured list but has had a huge season and began August looking like he is ready to pick up right where he left off in June after 3 months of a solid season! Kershaw began August with a solid 5-inning stint versus Colorado. Now he can dominate the Brewers just like he did in May earlier this season in Milwaukee when he was also matched up with Wade Miley. Kershaw allowed just 1 earned run on only 5 hits in 7 innings while striking out 8 batters. As for Miley against the Dodgers, that was one of his worst starts of the season. Miley allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings in that start as LA rocked him. More of the same is likely here while the Brewers mediocre run continues. Milwaukee, after yesterday's 6-2 loss to the Dodgers, has gone 11-12 last 23 games. 10 of those 12 Milwaukee losses were by 2+ runs and, on the season, 45 of 55 Brewers losses have been by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers have scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 13 wins in their current run of 13-1 last 14 games! As you can see above, the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday.

#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Twins to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Minnesota is expected to send Bailey Ober to start this one. Ober has a 3.03 ERA when he is on his home mound this season and opponents are hitting just .233 against him in those 11 starts. Though he was hit hard in most recent start it was at Detroit and he did strike out 9 in 6 innings in that outing. Look for him to get revenge here against the Tigers as now Minnesota is hosting in this divisional match-up and the Twins have won 7 of 9 home games since the All-Star break. As for the Tigers, Alex Faedo will be the likely starter here. Though he was on the mound when the Tigers just beat Ober and the Twins, he was not overly impressive in that outing including allowing 2 homers. Faedo has been fortunate in that most of his outings have been at home this season but now this will be just his 3rd start on the road this season and he allowed 3 homers in under 10 innings in the two prior starts away from home. We love the fact that the Twins are seeking revenge for dropping 3 of the last 4 games in the recent series loss at Detroit. Also, Twins are off B2B wins and their 2nd half record has been impacted by being road-heavy. This will be just their 10th home games since the break and, again, they had wins in 7 of 9 home games since the break. Also, 50 of the Tigers 65 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. Minnesota has gone 34-24 against teams with a losing record this season. Detroit is 27-40 when facing teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and Minnesota's 62 wins this season have featured 46 of the 62 coming by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +115 money range with the Twins. Lay it!

#906 ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Max Scherzer to start this one. Scherzer is 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA when he is on his home mound this season and opponents are hitting just .215 against him in those 8 starts. Also, he has been rock solid so far this month in August as he has gone 2-0 in his first two starts since coming to the Rangers from the Mets. As for the Angels, Patrick Sandoval will be the likely starter here. Though he has pitched better overall of late, his recent numbers on the road show that the damage away from home definitely could have been much worse. Sandoval, in his last 4 road starts has allowed 19 hits and walked 11 in 20 innings for a 1.50 WHIP. Also, The Rangers bullpen does have an unimpressive ERA but there has been some misfortune with that as their 1.22 WHIP ranks a solid 5th in the majors! Conversely, the Angels bullpen WHIP ranks them in the bottom 5 in the majors! The Angels are off a win but this followed losses in 9 of last 11 games. Also, 46 of the Angels 60 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Rangers are off a loss but this followed wins in 10 of last 11 games! Also, Texas has gone 35-19 against teams with a losing record this season. The Angels are 34-44 when facing teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers 70 wins this season have featured 61 of the 70 (87% of them!) by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +115 money range with the Rangers. Lay it!

#956 ASA PLAY ON 8* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-160) OR -2.5 runs (-100) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - As we noted here yesterday, the Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August.  The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season.  Los Angeles has won 7 straight games and 11 of 12 and 57 of the Dodgers 70 wins this season have come by a multi-run margin.  In fact, 8 of last 11 wins and 20 of last 27 victories for LA have come by a margin of at least 3 runs.  That is why one can consider laying the 2.5 runs and no juice on the special run line available for this game as Colorado is a massive underdog with good reason.  The Rockies are the only team in the N.L. this season that has less than 24 road wins on the year. Not only is Colorado 20-42 on the road this season, the Rockies have lost 12 of their last 17 games and 57 of the 72 Colorado defeats have come by a multi-run margin this season.  8 of the Rockies last 10 losses have been by at least a 3-run margin.  Now a Rockies lineup that struggles away from home has to face Julio Urias.  Though the lefty has struggled on the road this season, he is 6-1 with a 2.22 ERA in his home starts this year!  Urias has held hitters to a .200 batting average at home this season after holding the opposition to a .183 batting average in outings at Dodger Stadium the prior season.  Colorado has been held to 2 or less runs in 6 of their last 8 games on this road trip. The Dodgers have scored an average of 6.8 runs per game in the 11 wins in their current run of 11-1 last 12 games!  The Rockies are expected to start Kyle Freeland here.  He is 1-8 with a 5.24 ERA on the road this season.  Freeland has been rocked in his starts since early July as he has allowed 40 hits in 29 innings!  Also, Colorado's bullpen is one of the worst in the majors for team ERA and WHIP.  As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-160) OR 2.5 runs (-100) in afternoon action Sunday. Because not everyone has option of the -2.5 we are releasing this play here on this site as officially a play at -1.5 runs and laying the heavier juice. We mention the other option for those of you who have that option available and wish to consider it.

#910 ASA PLAY ON 8* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-135) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 6 straight games and 10 of 11 and 56 of the Dodgers 69 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Rockies are the only team in the N.L. this season that has less than 24 road wins on the year. Not only is Colorado 20-41 on the road this season, the Rockies have lost 11 of their last 16 games and 56 of the 71 Colorado defeats were by a multi-run margin this season. Now a Rockies lineup that struggles away from home has to face Tony Gonsolin. Though he is off a tough outing in his most recent start, he had allowed only 16 hits in 20 innings over his last 4 starts leading into that one. Gonsolin is a combined 33-10 with a 3.00 ERA in his career and has held hitters to a .192 batting average in his career. Colorado has been held to 2 or less runs in 5 of their last 7 games on this road trip. The Dodgers have scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 10 wins in their current run of 10-1 last 11 games! The Rockies are expected to start Peter Lambert here. He is 5-10 with a 6.80 ERA at the MLB level in his career. Lambert has been rocked in both of his August starts and Colorado's bullpen is one of the worst in the majors for team ERA and WHIP. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Saturday.

#130 ASA PLAY ON 8* LA Rams -3 over LA Chargers, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Rams head coach McVay set the precedent for sitting nearly everyone in the preseason a few years ago. He decided to sit his starters and many of his key reserves for the entire exhibition schedule. That will change this year. McVay, offensive coordinator LaFleur, and GM Snead have all stated their approach to this year’s preseason slate will be different. Last year they were coming off a Super Bowl win and had the luxury of sitting guys. This year, the Rams are coming off a 5 win season and many of the starting spots are up for grabs which should lead to a competitive situation for LA in the preseason with key players fighting for spots. QB Stafford, WR Cupp, and DT Donald are a few that won’t play but many others will. QB Rypien will get the start and he has some decent experience with 130 career NFL pass attempts. He will be followed by rookie Stetson Bennett who won back to back National Championships with Georgia. Chargers head coach Staley has been adamant about resting his starters during the preseason and that will most likely continue this year as much of their lineup is already set. LAC is also learning a new offensive system under coordinator Kellen Moore who came over in the off-season from Dallas. They will be doing so with Easton Stick (1 career pass attempt) and Max Duggan (rookie) handling the QB position. The Bolts are also dealing with a rash of injuries, especially on the defensive line, and an illness spread through some of the team this week. This is a bigger game for the Rams coming off a 5 win season while the Chargers are eyeing another run to the playoffs. We’ll lay the FG and take the Rams here.

#109 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one opened with the Steelers favored by 1.5 and has jumped a bit. We like them here at -3 or lower and right now (Wednesday evening) the line is set at -2.5 at most shops. We like Pittsburgh’s QB rotation quite a bit which is key in the pre-season with backups and 3rd stringers getting a lot of time. They will start with Kenny Pickett who was solid last year as a rookie throwing for nearly 2500 yards on 63% completions. Pickett struggled a bit early in the season but Pitt won 5 of their final 6 games last season and their lone loss during that stretch was 16-14 vs Baltimore, a game Pickett sat out the majority of in concussion protocol. Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph are fighting for the back up spot and both have plenty of NFL experience, including starting experience. We have Pittsburgh’s offensive line & overall defense rated ahead of Tampa’s entering this season. The Bucs will start Baker Mayfield and QB and then move to Kyle Trask. Mayfield has been up & down at best in his career (61% career completion percentage) and Trask has attempted only 9 career passes in the NFL. The coaching edge is heavily in Pittsburgh’s favor with Mike Tomlin over Tampa’s Todd Bowles. Tomlin has put an emphasis on performing well in the pre-season with a SU record of 15-4 the last 5 seasons. Bowles was 0-3 SU in the pre-season last year, his first as Tampa’s head coach. Pitt beat the Bucs 20-18 last year in the regular season and that was with Brady at QB for TB. We like the Steelers to win this one by more than a FG.

#916 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over St Louis Cardinals, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Cardinals are likely handing the ball to Matthew Liberatore for this one.  He is having a very rough season and is winless with an 11.48 ERA in his 4 road starts this season.  As for the Rays, they are expected to start Zack Littell in this one.  He is coming off a very strong start and has allowed just 2 earned runs in 11 innings over his last two starts.  The Cardinals got the upset win yesterday but St Louis is just 27-45 in night games this season and only 31-45 against teams with a winning record.  The Rays play in the tough AL East but are having a rock solid season and they have dominated lesser teams.  Tampa Bay is 31-13 against teams with a losing record this season!  Also, the Rays are 38-20 in home games and a stellar 14-6 against left-handed starters.  Coming off a loss, this is a great spot to back the Rays.  The edges in home field and pitching (including bullpen) go to TB here. Also, the Cardinals had lost 12 of 17 games before the win yesterday and they have not won B2B games since mid-July.  We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one for a comeback price in the +115 range with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#910 ASA PLAY ON 8* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Brewers to roll to another big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Milwaukee is expected to send Wade Miley to the mound to start this one. Miley is 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA in evening games this season and opponents are hitting just .226 against him in those 7 starts. As for Colorado, Kyle Freeland will be the likely starter for the Rockies here. He is 1-8 with a 5.33 ERA in his road starts this season and opponents hitting .299 against him in those outings. In evening action, Freeland has a 6.04 ERA and opponents are hitting .307 against him. Also, the Rockies bullpen has a 4.93 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors! The Brewers bullpen ERA ranks them 10th in the majors and their 1.24 WHIP ranks them tied with two other teams for a solid 7th in the majors! We have had some solid success this season fading bad teams in the right situations and this looks like another one as Colorado has been dreadful on the road again this season including losses in 17 of their last 23. Overall, the Rockies are 19-38 this season in road games and they are 20-42 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, 55 of the Rockies 68 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The home team has won all 4 meetings between these teams this season and the home team is 14-4 in the last 18 games between these teams since the start of the 2021 season! All the edges point to the home team (won 12-1 yesterday) and another big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Brewers. Lay it!

#971 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Oakland A's, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to roll to a big road win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Dane Dunning to start this one. Dunning is 6-1 with a 2.60 ERA in evening games this season and opponents are hitting just .201 against him in those 16 outings (10 starts). As for Oakland, Ken Waldichuk will be the likely starter for the A's here. He is 2-7 with a 6.52 ERA this season and opponents hitting .287 against him. Also, the Athletics bullpen has a 5.53 team ERA this season to rank at the bottom of the majors! The Rangers bullpen does have an unimpressive ERA but there has been some misfortune with that as their 1.24 WHIP ranks a solid 8th in the majors! We love the fact that Oakland enters this game off B2B wins. The reason is because that strongly puts the odds in our favor that this will be a loss here! Note that the Athletics and Royals are two of the worst teams in the majors this season. They have the two worst records and it is because they can not sustain winning streaks. KC recently had a shocking 7-game winning streak and it is the only time this entire season that they have won more than 2 straight games! Likewise, early this season the A's had a 7-game winning streak and it is the one and only time Oakland has won more than 2 straight games this entire season! We have had some solid success this season fading bad teams in the right situations and this looks like another one as Oakland again fails in a situation when off rare B2B wins. Also, 58 of the Athletics 80 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Rangers have won 6 straight games and have gone 33-18 against teams with a losing record this season. The Athletics are 5-26 when facing teams from their division this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers 66 wins this season have featured 58 of the 66 by a multi-run margin! Looking for a road blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -125 money range with the Rangers. Lay it!

#924 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over New York Mets, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #4 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 30-14 record and 3.59 ERA. The Mets are one of the weaker bullpens in MLB with a 16-23 record and 4.30 ERA. New York is 24-37 in road games this season! The Mets have lost 5 straight games and been defeated in 8 of last 9 on the road. Baltimore is 23-7 in games against teams with a losing record this season and also enters this game having won 20 of 27 games dating back to early July. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins (29%) this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a home blowout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Mets 60 losses this season have included 43 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Kyle Bradish has been solid this season and this is particularly true at home where he has a 2.39 ERA this season and has held opponents to a .202 batting average! The Orioles hurler has allowed just 6 earned runs in 46 and 2/3 innings over his last 7 home starts!  Bradish has had only one bad home start this season and that was way back in April!  The Mets counter with Jose Quintana and he has only made 3 starts so far and has been hit at a .281 clip in those outings.  Orioles enter this game with wins in 25 of 37 games against left-handed starters this season. Each of the last 6 Orioles wins have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for New York, their overall struggles and road struggles continue after the fire sale that further dampened team morale as they were in sell mode come the trade deadline.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +120 money range with the Orioles. Lay it!

#977 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 7:07 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 30-80 and with 58 of their 80 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly, the A's enter this game just 19-67 when facing teams with a winning record this season and here they face a tough test as the Giants are 12 games over .500 on the season. The Giants are 7-2 last 9 games and San Francisco certainly holds an edge in the pitching department here. Ross Stripling is likely to draw this start. The A's have only one batter that has ever had a hit against Stripling so their experience against him is limited to say the least. Additionally, Stripling has been better than his full season numbers show. Since late June, Stripling has allowed 12 earned runs in 30 innings. With Oakland struggling so badly and also having little experience against him, Stripling should have a solid outing here. The Athletics are expected to start Paul Blackburn here and he is coming off an ugly July in which he compiled a 6.26 ERA and opponents hit .340 against him in his 5 outings (4 starts). Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.57 ERA. The Giants bullpen ERA of 3.58 ranks them TOPS in the National League. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with San Francisco being on the road. Based on all of the above edges we like SF here with action on the pitchers and feel the way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -105 money range with the Giants should be much higher. Lay it!

#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers just got swept by the Braves in Atlanta.  The Braves are having a fantastic season and now Milwaukee goes from facing one of the best teams in the majors to facing one of the majors' worst.  The Brewers are now in DC for this series and the  Nationals have the worst home record in the N.L. with a 20-33 mark on the season.  Also, against teams with a winning record this season, Washington is 25-42.  The Brewers, prior to the series with Atlanta, had won 11 of 14 road games.  Washington just lost 3 of 4 games and scored a total of only 4 runs in the 3 losses!  Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will likely make for another night of misery for the Nationals at the plate while the Brewers should quickly break out of their slump tonight in this early evening match-up. Burnes has been top notch this season and is having an absolutely phenomenal month of July!  Burnes has allowed just 6 earned runs on only 11 hits while striking out 42 in the 33 innings over his 5 starts this month.  A superb stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Also, we are going action on pitchers here because the Nationals are expected to start Jake Irvin (6.32 ERA since All-Star break) so this is also a play against situation the way we see it.  Irvin is a rookie and still going through some growing pains at the MLB level and this comes as no surprise given his minor league stats either.  This season he has had a 5.64 ERA at the AAA level and last year he was 0-4 with a 4.79 ERA at the AA level.  45 of 62 Nats losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 1.5 runs per game in their last 6 road wins.  They again shutdown the opposition and their bats should flourish against Irvin and a Nationals bullpen that is dead last in the N.L. with a 5.40 ERA this season.  This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one.

#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals continue - along with the Athletics - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball.  Now off a rare win yesterday, Kansas City is in the perfect spot to be faded.  KC got the walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 10th and now will likely be flat today after the big celebratory win in dramatic fashion last night.  The Royals just do not win back to back games very often.  Indeed, it has been a dreadful season for Kansas City and they have gone 2-14 the last 16 times they were off a win!  Dating back to mid-May, the Royals have won B2B games just TWICE!  Incredibly, the longest winning streak for KC is just 2 games this entire season!  The Twins enter this game off 3 straight losses and that certainly is noteworthy here.  That's because Minnesota has only lost more than 3 in a row a single time this entire season!  The Twins, when entering a game on a losing streak of exactly 3 games, have won that 4th game all but one single time this season!  Minnesota's record in this situation is 7-1 so you have a fantastic play on situation for the Twins and a solid play against situation for the Royals.  This is all before talking about the pitchers which is also a huge edge for Minny here.  Bailey Ober gets the call in this one and he has been rock solid over his last 5 starts and has a 2.16 ERA in the month of July.  Ober was strong in his only start against KC this season.  The Royals Jordan Lyles, on the other hand, got rocked by the Twins in his most recent start against them this season.  Also, Lyles allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his start against the Yankees Sunday.  Lyles is 1-12 with a 6.19 ERA this season!  Lyles is 0-6 at home and 0-5 in night games this season.  The Royals are 18-56 against teams with a winning record this season.  The Twins are 24-12 against teams with a losing record this season.  40 of 54 Minnesota wins by at least a 2-run margin this season.  62 of 75 Royals losses by a multi-run margin this season.  We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Twins. Lay it!

#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Pirates have slumped badly after that miracle early season start they had.  It is hard to believe now but, at one point early this season, Pittsburgh was 20-8.  Now, from the month of May onward it has been an entirely different story.  The Pirates enter this game on a run of 23-48.  Also, Pittsburgh's 56 losses have included 47 by at least a 2-run margin.   The Padres are playing their first home game since the All-Star break.  Though San Diego is off a loss yesterday, this followed wins in 4 of last 5 games.  Also, the Padres have won 5 of last 6 home games.  42 of San Diego's 48 wins have been by a multiple run margin.  Given these facts, if you like the Padres to win this game you can see why we have excellent value at the -1.5 runs here as 84% of Pirates losses and 88% of Padres wins by at least a 2-run margin this season.  The pitching helps the cause here too as Quinn Priester is making just his 2nd MLB start.  His first outing last week saw him get crushed for 7 earned runs in 5 innings.  Priester will prove to be no match for the Padres Yu Darvish.  The veteran right-hander tends to be very strong at home but he had rare struggles in his last 2 starts at home.  Now, entering this start off B2B strong road outings since the All-Star break, Darvish is ready to resume his typical home dominance.  In his two starts entering this one, Darvish has allowed only 1 earned run on just 9 hits while striking out 16 in 12 innings!  Here he should dominate a struggling Pirates lineup.  The way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily make a case that the price in the -120 money range with the Padres should be much higher. Lay it!

#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 28-73 and with 53 of their 73 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly, and even including yesterday's rare upset win over the Astros, the A's enter this game just 5-25 against divisional foes this season and here they face a tough spot as the defending champs are looking to avoid a 2-2 series split. The odds certainly favor the Astros bouncing right back as Oakland is just 6-38 in day games this season. Truly incredible numbers that favor Houston to respond immediately off the upset loss here and knock off the A's. The Astros are 21-12 against divisional opponents this year and Houston holds a huge edge in the pitching department here. Additionally, the Astros are a red hot 10-4 last 14 games on the road! Hunter Brown is likely to draw this start. Brown has dominated the Athletics in both starts against them this season! Brown allowed just 3 earned runs only 9 hits while striking out 19 in the 13 innings over those two starts. Brown is off a tougher start at Colorado but he really settled in after a tough first inning and that was at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Brown has struck out 35 over his last 24 innings and can again dominate a weaker lineup that has struggled against him this season. The Athletics are expected to start Luis Medina and he is 0-3 with an 8.35 ERA in his 4 day game outings this season. He allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings in his start against the Astros this season. Medina allowed 10 baserunners in that outing and also gave up 3 homers to Houston in that one! Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.57 ERA. The Astros bullpen ERA of 3.69 ranks them 5th in the majors. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with Houston being on the road. The Astros won 6-4 Friday and that sent the Athletics to their 10th loss in 12 games. Now, after a rare Oakland win last night, the way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -130 money range with the Astros should be much higher. Lay it!

#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, Grayson Rodriguez just recently returned from the minors because he had been sent down for a lengthy period in which he was struggling so badly. Rodriguez did not look much better in his return from the minors. Some pitchers just never quite cut it at the MLB level no matter the success they have in the minors. This is one rookie who might end up fitting that bill. Rodriguez has a 7.33 ERA in the majors this season in his 11 starts and opponents are hitting .311 against him. He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his start last week which was his first start since being called up again. As for the Rays, they are expected to start a true ace in Shane McClanahan here and he had a dominating first start since coming back from a minor injury. He just pitched at Texas last week and that is a tough Rangers team and he dominated in that outing. This is not a huge surprise as he has dominated again all season long. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.56 ERA this season and he is coming off a stellar season last year for Tampa Bay too. With yesterday's 3-0 shutout win, the Rays are now 36-16 at home this season. The Orioles are having a strong season too and these clubs are battling it out at the top of the AL East division right now. However, the edges in home field and starting pitching both go to TB here. Also, 29 of the Orioles 38 losses this season have been by at least 2 runs. 47 of the Rays 61 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one for a comeback price in the +115 range with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 27-72 and with 52 of their 72 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's enter this game just 4-24 against divisional foes this season and here they face a tough one as the defending champs are in town. The Astros are 20-11 against divisional opponents this year and 18-10 versus left-handed starters. This match-up is a battle of southpaws and Houston holds a huge edge in the pitching department here. Additionally, the Astros are a red hot 9-3 last 12 games on the road! Framber Valdez is likely to draw this start. Valdez has a 2.76 ERA this season and it is no fluke as he went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA last season! Valdez has held opponents to a .227 batting average for the season and also has held opponents to a .227 batting average in his 6-year career. The Athletics are expected to start JP Sears and he has allowed 12 earned runs in 17 innings over his last 3 home starts. Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.64 ERA. The Astros bullpen ERA of 3.70 ranks them 7th in the majors. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with Houston being on the road. The Astros won 3-1 last night and sent the Athletics to their 9th loss in 11 games. The way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -140 money range with the Astros should be even higher. Lay it!

#952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 12:20 PM ET - The Braves have now lost 4 straight games.  The last time the Braves had a losing season was 2017 and, ironically, that is also the last time that Atlanta has had a losing streak of more than 4 games!  In other words, it has been over 5 YEARS since Atlanta has had a losing streak of at least 5 GAMES!  The Braves are 33-20 this season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up.  Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 26-27 this season against teams with a winning record.  Also, Arizona is just 13-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-16 against all NL teams this season!  In terms of the pitching edge here, the Braves Spencer Strider is 11-3 with a 3.66 ERA this season.  The Diamondbacks Zac Gallen has equally impressive overall numbers but there is one key factor about his numbers.  Gallen has been Jekyll and Hyde in terms of his road versus home performances.  This season on the road Gallen is 2-4 with a 5.11 ERA.  Atlanta will respond here as their bullpen is still ranked #1 in NL and #3 in majors while the Dbacks ERA ranks their bullpen 19th in the majors.  Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games prior to this rare 0-4 stretch.  26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs.  The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 20 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs.  Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here.  The hosts should roll big in this one.   We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the +110 comeback range with the Braves. Lay the 1.5 runs here!  

#908 ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - It is hard to believe that the team with the best record in baseball scored 13 runs and yet still lost yesterday. That was these Braves and we had them right here as they blew leads of 13-12 and 11-8 in the eventual 16-13 defeat. We look for Atlanta to immediately respond today on Wednesday. The Braves are 33-19 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 25-27 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 12-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-15 against all NL teams this season! Charlie Morton is 5-0 in his last 5 starts and he has been delivering a fantastic July with a 3-0 record and a 0.47 ERA so far this month for Atlanta. The expected Diamondbacks starter, Ryne Nelson, has been at the other end of the spectrum of late with Arizona losing 4 of his last 6 starts. Nelson has allowed 18 earned runs on 40 hits in 32 innings over his last 6 starts. The Braves are off 3 straight losses and haven't lost 4 straight games since mid-May! Atlanta will respond here as their bullpen is still ranked #1 in NL and #3 in majors while the Dbacks ERA ranks their bullpen 19th in the majors. Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-3 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 19 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. The hosts should roll big in this one. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -110 money range with the Braves. Lay it!

#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Entering this series, the Braves are 33-18 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up.  Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 22-26 this season against teams with a winning record.  Also, Arizona is just 11-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-14 against all NL teams this season!  The Diamondbacks are in for a tough test here from the team with the top record in the NL as Elder is likely to draw this start.  Bryce Elder has a 2.97 ERA so far this season and he has made 10 night game starts already on the season and is undefeated with a 4-0 record in those match-ups.  The expected Diamondbacks starter, Zach Davies, is 1-5 on the season.  He has a 6.37 ERA on the season and now has a combined 9-22 record over the 2021/22/23 seasons!  The Braves are off B2B losses and haven't lost 3 straight games since mid-May!  Atlanta will respond here and Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-2 stretch.  26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs.  The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 18 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs.  Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here.  We also like the fact Elder's last start was a rare bad one and now he will bounce back against an Arizona team whose lineup could struggle as they have never faced him.  The Braves, on the other hand, have 10 hitters with experience against Davies.  7 of those guys have at least 4 at bats against him and all 7 of those have at least 1 RBI with a total of 15 RBIs in 70 at bats combined.  That is a great ratio as it equates to a hitter having 105 RBIs in a 490 at-bat season.  The hosts should roll big in this one.   We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Braves. Lay it!

#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The A's continue - along with the Royals - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Oakland got hammered 10-7 by Minnesota yesterday and the A's tough season continues. 7 of the 9 starters in the lineup that Oakland used in yesterday's game have batting averages of .225 or less on the season! Minnesota, on the other hand, has a team slugging percentage of .403 on the season and that is 48 points higher than the Athletics slugging percentage on the season.  That is just one example of the disparity between these two teams and the Twins have a pitching edge here too. Minnesota's Joe Ryan is 5-3 with a 2.95 ERA in day games this season and also holding hitters to .195 batting average in day games this season. This afternoon the A's are expected to send JP Sears to the mound. The lefty has pitched a little better of late but has a 1-6 record on the season plus has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last two home starts!  Oakland is 14-42 against teams with a winning record this season. Minnesota has won both the first two games of this series and is looking to move to 8-4 against AL West teams this season with another win here.  37 of the Twins 47 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. The Athletics are 5-37 in day games and 54 of their 69 losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Another edge is that the Minnesota bullpen is strong and ranks in the top 8 teams in the league while the Athletics bullpen is dead last for team ERA in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Twins. Lay it!

#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals dropped to 25-62 with their 5-0 shutout loss at Minnesota last night. Keep in mind, KC was facing a Twins hurler (Pedro Lopez) last night that had given up at least 4 earned runs in 5 of last 7 home starts! If they could not scratch anything off him they are certainly unlikely to have success against a Guardians hurler that is in strong current form. Tanner Bibee has a 2.38 ERA at home and opponents have hit just .195 against him in his 6 home starts this season. Bibee should dominate here and the Guardians also should pound Jordan Lyles. He is off his first win of the season. Lyles allowed 4 earned runs in the start but finally got a win after KC was 0-15 in his first 15 starts this season! We have no hesitation here in fading a guy that, when on the mound, the Royals have gone 1-15 this season. Lyles has allowed 17 earned runs in 25 innings over his last 4 starts. In May he went 0-4 with an 8.89 ERA. In April, his final 5 starts saw Lyles allow 23 earned runs in 30 innings. Consistency matters and, in this case, Lyles has struggled consistently this season without a doubt. Even if he is not the starter here and even if Bibee (so strong at home) does not go, we still like the better team at home to win this game by at least 2 runs. 12 of the last 13 KC losses have been by at least 2 runs! Cleveland is off a tough series with Atlanta and just got blasted by the Braves 8 to 1 but they are 17-7 this season when off a loss in which they were held to 2 or less runs. In terms of bullpen ERA, Guardians are 2nd in MLB and Royals are 29th in MLB. Blowout likely here. Rain expected, particularly early in the day in Cleveland, but it should clear up well enough by the time this game rolls around. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -105 money range with the Guardians. Lay it!

#964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Boston Red Sox, Sunday at 1:37 PM ET - The Blue Jays lost a tight one yesterday to the Red Sox and that was on Canada Day too so it was a particularly tough home loss for Toronto. We look for a big bounce back effort from the Jays here as a result. We like this play regardless of the starting pitchers but the Blue Jays do have a strong pitching edge here as a well. Kevin Gausman has made 17 starts this season and only 3 of them have been tough. In his other 14 starts he has allowed only 14 earned runs in 92 innings! That equates to a minuscule 1.37 ERA in 14 of his 17 starts this season. Gausman can bring it and has a 2.48 ERA at home this season plus is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in day games this season. The Red Sox are going with Garrett Whitlock here and he has allowed 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings spanning his last two starts. Boston is at .500 on the season and Toronto is 19-6 this season against teams that do not have a winning record. The Red Sox are unlikely to get the sweep at Toronto and, prior to these B2B wins, had lost 7 of 8 games. Before these B2B losses, Toronto had won 6 of 8 games. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a comeback price in the +105 money range with the Blue Jays. Lay it!

#917 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago White Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:07 PM ET - Oakland entered this series 21-62 and with 46 of their 62 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's entered this series just 16-45 against right-handed starters and here they are expected to face a good one as Dylan Cease is likely to draw this start. Cease is coming off a fantastic June in which he had a 2.20 ERA for the month and and it is no fluke as he held opponents to a .192 batting average for the month. The Athletics were expected to start James Karpielian but he landed on the DL with a shoulder issue. That means this is likely going to be a bullpen game for the A's and Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.75 ERA. In other words, a huge edge for a red hot Cease and the much stronger team being on the road. The A's actually won last night's game but have only had 3 winning streaks this season and so the odds of winning B2B games is between slim and none. When off a standalone win this season, the A's have gone 3-10 this year. You have one of the worst teams in MLB off a rare win and against a solid pitcher. With A's likely going with a bullpen game here, this is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -140 money range with the White Sox. Lay it!

#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold. The fact we can get a reasonable -125 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one! The Nationals are having a very rough season and have lost 48 of 79 games this season and that includes having lost 12 of 16 when they are entering a game off a win. Here they are matched up with a Mariners team that has been particularly tough against bad teams. When facing teams that do not have a winning record, they have won 24 of 36 games. After Washington won yesterday's game 7-4 in 11 innings, here you have a very strong play on situation and a very strong play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses. What about wins and losses by 2+ runs? Well, the key here is that the Mariners have seen 30 of their 38 wins come by at least a 2-run margin. The Nats have seen 34 of their 48 losses come by at least at 2-run margin. Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers. The Mariners are expected to start Logan Gilbert here and he has been dominating regularly the past two months. He has only 2 tougher starts since May 1st and the other 8 outings have seen him allow a total of only 15 earned runs in 51.2 innings! The Nationals are likely starting Patrick Corbin here and he is 21-51 the last 4 years with consistently high ERA numbers. This season his ERA is 6.34 in road games. Also, the Washington bullpen is dead last in the National League this season based on ERA while the Mariners bullpen ranks as one of the best in the majors. As you can see, we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Mariners. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold.  The fact we can get a reasonable -125 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one!  The Nationals are having a very rough season and have lost 47 of 77 games this season and that includes having lost 27 of 41 night games. Here they are matched up with a Mariners team that has been particularly tough against bad teams. When facing teams that did not have a winning record, they have won 23 of 34 games.  So here you have a very strong play on situation and a very strong play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses.  What about wins and losses by 2+ runs?  Well, the key here is that the Mariners have seen 29 of their 37 wins come by at least a 2-run margin.  The Nats have seen 33 of their 47 losses come by at least at 2-run margin.  Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers.  The Mariners are expected to start Luis Castillo here and he has been dominating at home this season.  Castillo is 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA and holding opponents to a .169 batting average in his 9 starts in Seattle on the season.  The Nationals are starting Trevor Williams here most likely and he is off a rare strong start after 4 straight starts in which he was hit quite hard.  Also, the Washington bullpen is dead last in the National League this season based on ERA while the Mariners bullpen ranks as one of the best in the majors.  As you can see, we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Mariners. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-155) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold.  The fact we can get a reasonable -155 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one!  The Royals are having a very rough season and have lost 54 of 74 games this season and that includes having lost 32 of 40 games against teams with a winning record!  Here they are matched up with one of the best teams in MLB and the Rays have been particularly tough at home where they have won 32 of 40 games.  So here you have an 80% play on situation versus an 80% play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses.  What about wins and losses by 2+ runs?  Well, the key here is that Tampa Bay has seen 75% of their wins (39 of 52) come by at least a 2-run margin.  The Royals have seen 83% of their losses (45 of 54) come by at least at 2-run margin.  Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers.  This is a case of hot versus not and now, how about those pitchers?  The Rays are expected to start McClanahan here and he has been dominating this season.  McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.12 ERA and he is coming off a stellar season for Tampa Bay. Last year he held hitters under a .200 batting average and he had a strong 2.54 ERA on the season.  The Royals are taking a bullpen approach to this game with Jose Cuas likely to get the start but only going to go about 1 inning as an opener.  So what about the KC bullpen since we will be seeing plenty of it in this one?  The Royals relief pitching is a combined 10-17 with a 4.82 ERA and the late inning pen has been bad too with 10 of 20 saves being blown.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one even at a -155 price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!  

#920 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a solid play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Guardians have the #2 bullpen in MLB thus far based on opponents batting average with a .218 BAA. For bullpen ERA, Cleveland also ranks 2nd with a 2.98 ERA while the Athletics rank dead last at 30th with a 5.51 ERA. Oakland is on a 6-game losing streak. That included a tough beat yesterday for the league-worst Athletics. The manner of loss yesterday - blew 2-run lead in bottom of 7th and lost in 10th inning - was a 6th straight defeat and will be really tough to come back from. The Athletics are again in a major slump now and so a loss in that fashion is devastating in more ways than one. Note that Oakland's 56 losses this season have included 41 by at least a 2-run margin! The Guardians 34 wins have included 20 by at least a 2-run margin. So the odds here certainly favor that a Guardians win will be coming by a multi-run margin. Cleveland has won 11 of 17 games versus AL West opponents this season. As for the pitching match-up here, the Athletics Paul Blackburn has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts and he is still settling in after his start to this season was delayed until late May! The Guardians counter with Gavin Williams and though this is his MLB debut, the rookie right-hander is highly touted for a reason. He has excelled at all levels of the minors and he has been piling up strikeouts. The A's 6-game losing streak appears destined to add another defeat today and, after some recent 1-run losses, don't be surprised when this one turns into another blowout defeat by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +125 money range with the Guardians. Lay it!

#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 1:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a solid play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Twins have the #4 bullpen in MLB thus far based on opponents batting average with a .223 BAA. For bullpen ERA, Minnesota ranks 7th with a 3.50 ERA while the Brewers rank 22nd with a 4.29 ERA.  Milwaukee is on a 5-game losing streak.  That included an ugly series sweep at home at the hands of the league-worst Athletics.  Then, the manner of loss yesterday in the Brewers 5th straight defeat will be really tough to come back from.  Milwaukee led that game 5-3 going to bottom of the 9th but then allowed 4 runs including 2 on a walk-off homer that finished them off.  The Brewers are in a major slump now and so a loss in that fashion is devastating in more ways than one.  Note that Milwaukee's 33 losses this season have included 29 by at least a 2-run margin!  The Twins 34 wins have included 27 by at least a 2-run margin.  So the odds here certainly favor a Twins win coming by a multi-run margin.  Minnesota has won 15 of 25 home games since late April.  The Brewers have lost 13 of 20 road games over roughly the same time frame.  As for the pitching match-up here, the Brewers Colin Rea has allowed 10 earned runs in 16 innings in his last 3 road starts! The Twins counter with Bailey Ober and he has a 2.61 ERA and has held opponents to a .200 batting average in his 9 starts this season.  The Brewers 5-game losing streak appears destined to add another defeat today and 12 of the last 13 losses for Milwaukee have been by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Twins. Lay it!

ASA Top Play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -8.5 vs Miami Heat, Game 5 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - The Heat have been a fantastic story this postseason after upsetting the two best teams in the East to make the Finals, but their season comes to an end tonight. Miami got some incredible contributions from a few of their role players but it’s apparent that Cinderella story has come to an end. Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson have essentially disappeared in the Finals and Adebayo/Butler can only carry the load so far. Denver’s three wins in this series have all come by double-digits and in the most recent game they got a less than normal performance from their two SuperStars Murray and Jokic. With the Nuggets back at home where they are 9-1 SU in the playoffs, and currently own an average +/- of +9.9PPG on the entire season, we expect a convincing win against a team that has run out of gas. The Nugs have also won 37 of their last 42 home games.