ASA play on Sacramento Kings -2 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40pm ET - These two teams met in mid-February on this court with the Kings winning 129-128 in OT. Currently, both teams are dealing with injuries to big men as the Mavs will not have PJ Washington tonight along with Anthony Davis, Lively and Gafford. Sacramento will be missing Domantas Sabonis and his 20ppg, but they have a proven vet backup in Jonas Valanciunas to fill in. The Kings are starting to figure out their new lineup with DeRozan (added before the season) and Zach LaVine (trade deadline) with three straight wins. Sacramento is coming off an impressive 10-point win in Houston on Saturday. The Mavericks injuries are taking a toll, and it’s shown with a 1-3 SU record in their last four games. Looking at the last 5 games for each team we find the Kings rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency, the Mavericks rank 28th. Defensively they are both allowing right around 1.13-points per possession. The road team has won 5 of the last six meetings and we like the healthier/deeper Kings to get this road ‘W’.

ASA PLAY ON Illinois +3.5 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - We faded Michigan as a 10 point favorite earlier this week at home vs Rutgers and cashed easily with the Wolverines winning by 2 points on a 3 point shot at the buzzer. They trailed for most of the game vs a lower tier Big 10 team and Michigan simply cannot be trusted as a favorite. They are tied for 1st place in the conference with a 14-3 record but they rarely beat anyone handily. In fact, the last time they won by more than 4 points was over a month and a half ago on Jan 12th. While they do sit in 1st place in the league, they rank just 7th in PPG margin beating teams in Big 10 play but just +2 PPG. Illinois sits in 7th place in the Big 10 but they are vastly undervalued in our opinion. They’ve dealt with injuries and illness for much of the conference season prompting head coach Brad Underwood to state he’s never seen anything like this in all of his years of coaching. However, the Illini are now getting healthy. They had everyone back in the line up earlier this week and blasted Iowa by 20 points (we were on Illinois for that one). They rank in the top 5 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite missing a number of players on and off throughout the season. When they were heathy, this team rolled Oregon and Indiana on the road (by 32 and 25 points) and nearly upset MSU on the road losing by 2. Because Michigan plays close games, they’ve been dreadful in conference as a favorite. In fact, when favored by -3 or more in league play, the Wolverines are 1-10 ATS. We like Illinois to win this game on Sunday.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -2.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 1 pm ET - It’s almost an automatic bet on the Celtics off a loss. Boston has lost 2 straight games, one at a hot Detroit team and another at home against the Cavaliers. The C’s are 26-12 ATS when coming off a loss dating back to the start of last season. They have won those games by an average of +16.0ppg. This season the Celtics are 13-4 ATS off a loss, +19.8ppg average MOV. Boston has the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.0ppg. This is a very low number for a Celtics team that is 64-17 SU their last 81 home games and the average +/- in those games is +12.1ppg. Denver has a strong history on the road too but their defense will be their Achilles heel in this game. Boston lives and dies from beyond the Arc with the 10th best 3PT% in the league at 37%. They attempt and make more 3-pointers than any other team in the league. Denver ranks 20th in 3PT attempts allowed, 23rd in 3PT’ers made and 18th in 3PT% defense. Denver has great offensive statistics with the best FG% in the league and rank 3rd in 3PT%. The problem though is that they’ll face a Boston defense that allows the 3rd lowest FG% overall and 3rd lowest 3PT%. Boston will feed off the home crowd and get this win by 8+ points.

#676 ASA PLAY ON TCU -3 over UCF, Saturday at 4 PM ET - TCU has played #1 most difficult Big 12 schedule to date. UCF has played an easier schedule (5th SOS in conference) yet TCU has the better record at 8-9 in Big 12 play compared to 6-11 for UCF. We’re catching the Horned Frogs on a good bounce back spot at home coming off back to back road losses @ Cincinnati and @ WVU. Now they are back home where they have a 13-2 record with some impressive wins over high level opponents including Texas Tech, BYU, and Xavier. The Golden Knights are off back to back home wins after a 7 game losing streak. Their recent home wins vs Utah and Kansas State were both down to the wire with margins of 4 points. The Utes are the 3rd lowest rated team in the Big12 and fired their coach following that tight loss. KSU went on a nice run winning 6 in a row but have since lost 4 straight and played at UCF without key starter Hawkins (11 PPG and 7 RPG). Now Central Florida goes on the road where they’ve been terrible 2-6 record and they’ve lost 5 straight away from home. TCU will be extra motivated for this one of their worst losses of the season was @ UCF losing 85-58 as a 4 point dog. The Frogs shot 20 triples in that game and made ONE! They were outscored in that game by 43 points from the 3 point line + FT line. Just one of those games where everything went wrong for TCU. The Knights are a poor shooting team ranking 312th in FG% and on the other end they rank dead last in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. Not a good recipe for success on the road. We’ll lay the small number here with the Horned Frogs.

#672 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -2.5 over Loyola, Saturday at 4 PM ET - These 2 met two weeks ago and we were on Loyola -2.5 in that game and picked up a win with the Ramblers winning by 9. However, it was much closer than that final score as the game was actually tied with 3:00 minutes remaining. Loyola shot a higher percentage in that game and made 50% of their 3’s (12 of 24). We don’t expect a repeat performance from deep for Loyola as St Louis leads the conference defending the arc allowing only 30% on the season (A10 games). The Billikens have struggled all year on the road but at home they have been very good with a 12-3 SU record including a win over A10 leading VCU who only has 2 conference losses this season. They are 5-2 ATS at home in league play. The Billikens have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet they still rank 1st in eFG% offense AND defense. The Ramblers have a losing record on the road in conference play (3-4 SU) and their 3 road wins have come vs LaSalle, Richmond, and Davidson. The first 2 are the lowest rated teams in the A10 and Davidson has a 6-9 league record. Loyola has a negative point differential on the road this season while STL is outscoring their opponents by +11 PPG at home. The Ramblers offense is averaging just 0.985 PPP on the road (1.08 at home) while allowing 1.042 PPP (they allow 0.933 at home). Quick revenge for STL in a game that was close for 37 minutes on the road just 2 weeks ago. Lay it.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Ole Miss -7.5 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Ole Miss is in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses including a 30 point setback at #1 Auburn on Wednesday night. It was an embarrassing performance, especially on the defensive end where they allowed the Tigers to score 1.50 PPP while shooting 60% from the field. A definite outlier as the Mississippi defense on the season allows 0.95 PPP (21st nationally) and just 42% from the field. You can bet that head coach Chris Beard, a defensive specialist, will have this team ready to go full speed ahead on Saturday. They are facing a down trending Oklahoma team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games and the Sooners are coming off a gut wrenching 1 point home loss vs Kentucky who scored the go ahead bucket with only a few seconds remaining. After that tough loss OU goes on the road where they’ve been really poor this season with a 1-6 record. Their numbers drop off a cliff away from home where they have lost by an average of 17 PPG while scoring just 66 PPG and giving up 83 PPG. The Sooners are shooting only 39% away from home and all but 1 of their SEC road losses have come by double digits. We expect with the Ole Miss defense being completely focused here that the Oklahoma offense will really struggle in this game. The Rebs should also get plenty of extra possessions in this game as they rarely turn the ball over (#2 nationally in offensive turnover percentage) while OU coughs the ball up quite often ranking 14th in the SEC in that key stat. Ole Miss needs a ‘get right’ game as they’ve dropped to a projected 8 seed in the NCAA after their rough 3 game stretch. The Rebels win by double digits.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. NY Knicks, 8:10pm ET - These two teams met in New York in late January and the Knicks put a spanking on the Grizzlies in a 143-106 beatdown. New York shot 52% overall and 39% from beyond the Arc with +8 in made 3-pointers. NBA teams may forget a loss in the season but not one that came by 37-points, so we are betting the Grizzlies play at a high level here. Memphis is 18-10 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of plus 11.0ppg which is the 3rd highest number in the NBA. New York is 13-14 ATS on the road this season with an average differential of plus +2.5ppg. In non-conference games the Grizzlies are 16-6-1 ATS with an +/- of 9.0ppg. The Knicks are 9-9 ATS against the Western Conference this season. New York is 2-4 ATS as a road dog and have had troubles with the leagues best teams. In recent games the Knicks have lost by 13 at Boston, -37 at Cleveland and lost by 27 to the Celtics at home. Memphis compares very favorably with the Knicks offensively with the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.184PPP versus the 3rd best OEFF on NY at 1.201PPP. Defensively it’s not even close as the Grizzlies rate 9th in DEFF at 1.039PPP allowed compared to the Knicks who rank 22nd allowing 1.152PPP. Memphis should enjoy a rebound advantage with the 5th most defensive rebounds per game, the Knicks are 24th. The Griz are also the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the NBA, the Knicks rank 21st. Memphis is 7-1 SU their last eight home games with an average +/- of +7.7ppg. Bet Memphis.

#890 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over UCLA, Friday at 8 PM ET - We’re catching Purdue at the bottom of the market and in a must win spot after 4 straight losses. 3 of those losses were on the road and their 1 home setback during this stretch was vs Wisconsin who rates as the Big 10’s best team per KenPom. The Boilers were favored by more vs the Badgers (-6) than they currently are vs UCLA (-5 at the open) despite Wisconsin being ranked 20 spots higher than the Bruins per KenPom. Another recent comparison was UCLA’s trip to Illinois where they were 7 point dogs and now only 5 vs Purdue despite the Boilers being the higher rated team. We’re getting some home value with PU because of their losing streak. The Bruins game @ Illinois looks like a down to the wire affair if you simply look at the final score which was 83-78 but the fact is the Illini led that game by 16 points with 4:00 minutes remaining and never trailed once in the contest. UCLA is 4-4 on the road this season and 2 of those wins were short trips to lower tier Big 10 teams USC and Washington. When they’ve had to make long travel going east, the Bruins have losses @ Illinois, @ Rutgers, @ Nebraska, and @ Maryland. On the road averages only 68 PPG (they average 80 PPG at home) on just 0.994 PPP (they average 1.177 PPP at home). The Boilermakers are 28-2 SU at home since the start of last season and Mackey Arena is widely respected as the most difficult road venue in the Big 10. UCLA has never made the trek to Mackey so unfamiliar territory for the Bruins. These 2 are tied in 4th place in the conference with 11-5 record, however Purdue has played the more difficult slate and they have better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in league play. We like the desperate Boilers to win and cover at home on Friday night.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers +10.5 over Michigan, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Too many points here as the Wolverines tend to play close games win or lose. Michigan is tied for 1st in Big Ten (with MSU) with 13-3 record but they rarely beat anyone handily. In fact, the last time they won by more than 4 points was nearly a month and a half ago on Jan 12th. While they do sit in 1st place in the league, they rank just 7th in PPG beating teams in Big 10 play but just +2 PPG. It’s also not an ideal spot for the Wolverines as they’ve already beaten Rutgers and have a HUGE game on deck with Illinois so a look ahead is highly possible. In that first meeting Michigan won on the road by 3 points but Rutgers played without their leading scorer Dylan Harper (5th leading scorer in the conference) who averages just under 20 PPG. Speaking of Harper, the Scarlet Knights are obviously much better with him in the line up and he’s been in and out all season with injuries and illness. They are 7-10 in Big 10 play, however when Harper is healthy they are 6-6 so a .500 SU record. Rutgers has been very competitive with a PPG margin in the conference of -4 PPG and of their 14 losses (14-14 overall record) the Knights have only lost 2 of those games by more than 14 points. Because Michigan plays close games, they’ve been dreadful in conference as a favorite. In fact, when favored by -3 or more in league play, the Wolverines are 1-9 ATS. We think Rutgers will give Michigan all they can handle here and we’ll take the generous points.

#754 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State -2.5 over San Francisco, Wednesday at 11 PM ET - This is the Beavers final home game of the season which should bring some extra motivation to this contest. Not that extra motivation is needed as a loss @ USF earlier in this season will take care of that. In the first match up, the Dons won at home 81-70 as a -4.5 point favorite. The box score for San Francisco was ridiculous as they shot 60% overall for the game and 59% from beyond the arc hitting 13 of 22. They’ll have a tough time getting anywhere near those numbers tonight as USF shoots just 41% on the road and 32% from deep barely averaging 1.00 PPP. Along with the Dons hitting everything in sight in the first meeting, OSU was just 1 of 9 from beyond the arc (11%) so they were outscored by a whopping 36 points from beyond the arc and lost by only 11 points on the road. At home, OSU has been outstanding offensively hitting 51% of their shots, 40% of their 3’s and averaging 1.18 PPP which is top 30 in the nation (for home teams). The Beavers poor offensive numbers from the first meeting should rise dramatically at home tonight. The one thing OSU did have an advantage on offense in that meeting was at the FT line where they made 21 to USF’s 14. We anticipate the Beavs will have an advantage again tonight as they get to the FT line more than any team in the WCC (percentage of points from the FT line) while USF sends opponents to the line more than any team in the conference. When Oregon State gets there, they make 80% in WCC play. They are 15-2 at home (14-2 ATS) with their only losses coming vs Oregon (by 3 points) and St Mary’s who already clinched the WCC Title. San Franciso has a losing road record (4-5 SU & 4-4-1 ATS) and a negative point differential away from home on the season. This number is too small and we’ll take advantage of the value with the home team. Take Oregon State.

#746 ASA PLAY ON Arizona State +5 over BYU, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - Great spot for ASU to pull the upset here. The Devils had lost 6 in a row, including 3 vs top 12 teams (KenPom) and they finally picked up some momentum with a solid 12 point win @ Kansas State over the weekend. Because of their losing streak, we’re still getting some value here despite the solid road win. BYU recently played @ WVU and @ Cincinnati and the Cougs were 2 point dogs in those 2 games vs teams that rate almost identical to Arizona State but now they’re laying 4 on the road in this game (opening number). It’s a terrible spot for BYU playing their 2nd straight road game after pulling off a big upset @ Arizona late on Saturday night. It was a crazy, controversial ending with BYU getting fouled with just 3 seconds remaining and hitting both FT’s to win by 96-95. The Cougars went crazy on the offensive end hitting 55% overall and 45% of their 3’s (made 13 triples). They also averaged a ridiculous 1.37 PPP, this from a BYU team that is averaging 1.06 PPP on the road this season. Defensively they continued to struggle allowing 1.36 PPP and 54% from the field for Arizona. Not all that surprising as BYU allows opponents to hit nearly 50% and 40% from 3 away from home. They rank 11th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency, 13th in eFG% and 3 point FG% allowed. BYU has a losing road record (4-5) and they are getting outscored by an average of 5 PPG. Not only do they have a negative point differential on the road, they also have a negative PPP differential (efficiency) and a negative FG% and 3 point FG% differential. We think ASU has a great shot to pull this upset. Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -2 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 pm ET - These two teams just met on Monday in Atlanta with the Hawks winning 98-86 as a -2.5-point favorite. The natural line swing in this game should have the Heat favored by -5.5 or -6.5-points in this game. We played against Miami in that game on Monday as the Heat were in a very tough scheduling situation playing their 3rd game in four nights, all of which were on the road. Miami shot 32% from the field overall and 18% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers are well below their season statistics of 45.3% and 35.6%. Despite that atrocious shooting performance, the Heat were still competitive in the 12-point loss. This game is a big one for both teams as only 1-game separates them in the playoff standings with less than 26-games remaining. Miami has gone through an adjustment period with their new roster since the trade deadline and being back at home for just the 2nd time in February and playing with immediate revenge should have them focused. Miami by double-digits at home tonight.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -9.5 vs. Toronto Raptors, 7pm ET - This is a great spot to back the Pacers and fade the Raptors. Toronto is coming off a big game on Tuesday against the World Champion Celtics. Indiana is at home and coming off a home loss on Monday to the Nuggets. The Pacers have also lost to the Raptors twice this season so they will be more focused than usual to face Toronto. The Raps are 6-4 ATS when playing without rest this season but they have a negative differential of minus -9.0ppg. Indiana is 8-4 SU their last twelve games overall, 8-3 SU their last eleven at home with the losses coming to Denver, New York and Cleveland. In their last seven home games the Pacers have an average +/- of +6.0ppg. Toronto doesn’t have the offensive capability to keep up in this game as the Pacers are 4th in FG% at 48.9%, 11th in 3PT% and have the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating compared to the Raptors who rank 26th. Indiana isn’t great defensively on the season, but they have better efficiency numbers than the Raptors. We like the Pacers to bounce back with a big home win Wednesday.

#631 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech +9 over Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Pitt isn’t playing well enough to be nearly a double digit favorite in this game.  They have won just 4 of their last 13 games and none of those wins have come by more than 11 points and that 11 point win came at home vs Syracuse who is rated as the 3rd worst team in the ACC.  They rank 357th in Haslam Metrics Momentum category (out of 364 teams) solidifying how poor they’ve been playing as of late.  The Panthers are just 2-5-1 ATS as a home favorite in conference play losing 3 of those games outright and they’ve already lost 6 games SU as a chalk this season.  They are ranked 74th nationally per Bart Torvik metrics however since mid January the Panthers are ranked just 131st (14th in the ACC during that stretch) while Georgia Tech is in the top 100 during that time.  During that stretch since mid January Pitt ranks 97th in offensive efficiency, 193rd in defensive efficiency, and 356th defending the 3 point shot.  Tech has won 4 of their last 6 games including topping 2 of the ACC’s best teams, Clemson & Louisville.  The Jackets defense has been very good all season ranking in the top 85 and this month they rank 58th nationally in defensive efficiency.  They’ve done a great job of not fouling ranking #1 in the ACC in opponents percentage of points from the FT line.  We think Tech keeps this game very close and we’ll take the points.

ASA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:40 pm ET - Both teams are coming off games yesterday but the Hawks were at home while the Heat were in Milwaukee. Atlanta also has the benefit of not playing Friday night, whereas the Heat were in Toronto. Miami’s starters played a heavy load of minutes against the Bucks with every starter playing 33+ minutes, Herro and Wiggins both were on the court 39+ minutes. Atlanta had 4 bench players all get 13+ minutes of play with only two starters playing more than 32 minutes. This game is a big one for both teams as only 1-game separates them for a play in berth in the postseason. Atlanta beat the Heat at home earlier this season 120-110 as a 1-point home underdog. In each team’s last 10 games the Heat’s offense has really struggled, ranking 26th in Net Rating. The Hawks on the other hand rank 7th in ONR over that same 10-game stretch. In that 10-game period the Heat have slightly better defensive numbers but not enough to warrant them being a road favorite here. Atlanta is 8-5 ATS as a home dog this season, Miami is 4-10 ATS as a road favorite. Take Atlanta at home to win outright.

#876 ASA PLAY ON Florida State +3.5 over North Carolina, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Heels have won 3 straight which may look to some like they are surging but those wins came vs Syracuse, NC State, and UVA, all ranked outside the top 100 and 2 of those wins were at home. Their 1 road win during that stretch came by 6 points @ Syracuse (5-11 record in conference play) in a game they outscored the Orange by 27 points from beyond the arc and it was still a down to the wire (2 point game with 40 seconds remaining). Despite that road win vs one of the ACC’s lowest rated teams, the Heels have been poor away from home. They are 0-7-1 ATS away from home this year and lost 4 in a row SU on the road before beating the Cuse. UNC has a losing record on the road and they are getting outscored by 4 PPG away from home. Offensively the Tar Heels average 1.15 PPP (efficiency) at home and that drops to 1.04 on the road. Defensively they allow just 0.96 PPP at home but that jump drastically to 1.09 PPP on the road. FSU has won 3 of their last 5 games with their 2 losses during that stretch coming vs Louisville and Clemson, 2 of the top 3 rated teams on the ACC. Their 8 points loss @ Louisville on Saturday (easy cover for FSU) was fairly impressive to be honest as they were -26 points in that game from the 3 point line and FT line combined and still kept it close vs a very good team on the road. The Noles are 10-4 at home this season with a +7 PPG margin. While UNC’s numbers fall off on the road, FSU’s are much better at home especially on defense where they allow just 0.94 PPP which is the 3rd best mark in the conference. The Noles are one of the tallest teams in the nation and are top 25 in block shot percentage and top 55 in creating turnovers (defensive turnover percentage). We think FSU has a great shot to pull the upset here (not even sure it’s an upset if they do). Take the points.

ASA Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:30 pm ET - These same two teams met right before the All-Star with the Wolves winning at home 116-101. OKC wasn’t in a great scheduling situation coming off a home game and a big come from behind win against the Heat and playing their 3rd game in four days. Minnesota was coming off a loss the night before to the Bucks, but that was on their home court, so they didn’t have to travel. Minnesota recently played in Cleveland, who has very similar Offensive, Defensive and Pace statistics as the Thunder and were beaten handily 128-107. The Thunder lost the most recent meeting in Minnesota so you can bet the best team in the league will be motivated and focused here. OKC has an average plus/minus on the road of +9.3ppg which is the 2nd best number in the NBA. Minnesota’s +/- at home is +4.4ppg but those numbers are largely predicated on a lineup that features Gobert, Randle and DiVincenzo, who are all out for this game. While these two teams have similar defensive numbers, with the Thunder having the edge, the offenses don’t compare. Minnesota is 13th in Offensive Efficiency, the Thunder at 5th. Minnesota shoots 46% overall (19th), the Thunder shoot 47.2% (9th). We like the Thunder to get revenge and a blowout win on the T’Wolves home court.

#858 ASA PLAY ON UCF -2.5 over Utah, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We’re absolutely catch UCF at the bottom of the market after they have lost 7 straight games. We’re also catching Utah off 2 huge home wins over Kansas & Kansas State and now going on the road where they’ve been terrible this season. This isn’t just any road game as the Utes make their furthest trek of the season (over 2,300 miles) to Orlando. Utah is 1-6 SU on the road this season and they are losing those games by an average of 15 PPG. They shoot just 39% on the road while hitting only 28% of their triples and averaging a paltry 61 PPG on only 0.932 PPP. It’s going to be tough for them to keep up with a UCF offense that averages 79 PPG on the season. While the Golden Knights have been in a funk, they are 10-5 at home and all 5 of those losses have come vs teams that rank at least 20 spots higher than Utah per KenPom including high level opponents Houston, BYU, Kansas, and Iowa State. UCF has played the most difficult strength of schedule in league play while Utah has faced the 11th most difficult slate yet still has a losing record in the Big 12. If this game was played a month ago, we’d be looking at UCF laying 2 or 3 more points. We like them to break their losing streak at home on Sunday afternoon.

#774 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +2.5 over Missouri, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Razors are coming off 2 tight road losses vs top 10 teams losing at Auburn by 7 and @ Texas A&M by 8. They had won 3 of 4 prior to that and Arkansas is now in must win mode at home as they sit squarely on the bubble. This is their final regular season “statement” type game for the NCAA tournament committee as their 4 remaining conference games are vs Texas, South Carolina, Vandy, and Mississippi State all ranked outside the top 25 per KenPom. Head coach John Calipari has already said that every game from here on out is a tournament game for his team. They catch Missouri in a huge letdown spot after they upset Bama at home on Wednesday. They caught the Tide in a letdown spot as Alabama was coming off a home loss vs Auburn when the two rivals were ranked #1 and #2 in the AP Poll. On top of that, the Tigers already beat Arkansas handily at home by 18 points so another reason to possibly overlook this game. That first meeting @ Missouri was the Razors 5th consecutive loss as they were playing as poorly as they have all season. However, since that loss, the Razorbacks have been playing much better topping their projected efficiency and 6 of their last 8 games (per Haslam Metrics). The Tigers really thrive on making 3’s and getting to the FT line with very little coming inside the arc (325th nationally in percentage of points from 2 point land). The Arkansas defense matches up nicely in that regard as they keep opponents off the FT line and defend the arc very well (37th nationally). This one has upset written all over it. We’ll take the points with Arkansas.

#689 ASA PLAY ON Portland State -2.5 over Weber State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Weber State has been playing terrible basketball since losing 2 key senior starters in the last month. They lost their 2nd and 3rd leading scorer and they have won only 2 of their last 11 games and after losing their 2 key seniors, the Wildcats are playing more underclassmen than any other team in the Big Sky. It’s not as if they’ve had a home court advantage this season with just a 1-6 SU record at home in conference play and 1-9 overall at home vs D1 opponents. Their one win came by 4 points vs Northern Arizona who is 6-9 in conference play. The Wildcats have the worst defense in the Big Sky allowing 1.13 PPP and today they are facing a Portland State team that has the best defense in the conference allowing 0.99 PPP in Big Sky games. PSU ranks #1 defensively in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and defensive turnover rate. The Vikings are coming off a road loss @ Idaho State on Thursday but still sit in 3rd place in the conference despite playing the 2nd most difficult strength of schedule in the league. They have been solid on the road with 5 wins which is more wins than Weber has at home. These 2 met already this season and PSU rolled to an easy 74-56 win dominating the glass (+13 boards) while holding Weber St to just 0.86 PPP and 35% from the field. Not only that, the PSU defense did that when Weber was a full strength prior to their 2 key injuries. The Vikings averaged 1.14 PPP on 49% shooting and that success should continue on offense. They rank 31st nationally hitting 48% of their shots and facing a Weber State defense outside the top 300 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. This line is light as it factors in the Wildcats playing at home where they haven’t been winning. We’ll take the much better team laying this small number.

ASA play on New Orleans +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 pm ET - The 13-win Pelicans have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season, largely due to injuries. New Orleans has had to deal with Zion Williamson missing 37 games, Dejounte Murray 24, Herb Jones 35, Trey Murphy 17 and CJ McCollum missing 15 games. Not to mention, Brandon Ingram who they traded, played in just 17 games for the Pels this season. Now it’s the Mavericks turn to deal with injury issues with Anthony Davis out, Daniel Gafford, Caleb Martin and Derek Lively out, Washington is not 100% and neither is Klay Thompson. The front court for the Mavs is dangerously thin right now. We expect Williamson to be in the lineup for the Pelicans tonight which gives them a low post presence the Mavs are lacking. New Orleans is 1-10 SU their last eleven games, but it’s come against a murderous schedule with games against some of the league’s best teams. In fact, one of those games was against this Mavericks team which they lost to 136-137. The Pelicans beat the Kings right before the All-Star break and can build on that momentum in Dallas tonight. The Mavs have two huge games looming against the Warriors and Lakers and could easily look past this Pelicans team tonight.

#885 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +3.5 over Michigan, Friday at 8 PM ET - Huge game in Michigan on Friday as the Wolverines sit in first place in the Big 10, a half game ahead of Sparty. The Wolverines have been extremely fortunate with 9 of their 12 Big 10 wins coming by 4 points or less. Their last 7 wins have come by margins of 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2, and 3 points with 4 of those 7 wins coming vs teams ranked in the bottom half of the conference. We think their tight game luck runs out tonight. Despite being just behind the Wolverines in 2nd place, MSU is the better team. If we look at Big 10 games, the Spartans are more efficient offensively (3rd in the Big 10 vs 7th for Michigan), more efficient defensively (1st in the Big 10 vs 7th for Michigan) and they rank #1 in offensive rebounding, FT% (80%), percentage of points from the FT line, eFG% defense, and 3 point FG% defense. Michigan State has been a dog just 5 times this season and they are 3-1-1 ATS in that role winning those 3 games outright. They have a very solid 16-9-1 ATS record on the season. Michigan, on the other hand, has gone 7 straight games without covering as a favorite and they are 2-9 ATS as a favorite in conference play. The one thing MSU does not do well is shoot the 3 but they shouldn’t be at a huge disadvantage in this one as Michigan ranks only 10th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG% and they are facing MSU’s defense who ranks #1 defending the arc. This one should be tight so we’ll grab the points.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at Indiana Pacers, 7pm ET - Memphis is 7-3 SU their last ten games, with the three losses coming at the Clippers, vs. OKC and at New York. In that 10-game stretch prior to the All-Star break the Grizzlies had the 9th best Net differential in the NBA at +4.4. Indiana is 14th in NR in their last ten games at 1.0. These two teams are very similar offensively with the Grizzlies ranking 5th in FG% shooting at 48.6%. The Pacers have similar numbers at 48.8% which ranks 4th. Memphis is 6th in 3PT%, the Pacers are 11th. On the season the Grizz rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency averaging 1.186-points per possession while the Pacers rank 9th at 1.157PPP. The big difference between these two teams comes on the defensive end of the court. Memphis ranks 7th in DEFF allowing 1.113PPP, the Pacers rank 22nd allowing 1.153PPP. Memphis allows the 3rd lowest FG% in the league overall and has the 5th best 3PT% D. Indiana ranks 20th in opponents FG%, 12th in 3PT% defense. No team in the NBA has had a better record since the start of last season than Memphis when playing non-conference games. The Grizzlies are 34-17 ATS or 66.7% against the East since the start of the 2023-24 season. Indiana has a 23-25-2 ATS record against the West in that same time frame. Take Memphis is this one.

#772 ASA PLAY ON Elon +2 over Towson, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Elon is 7-7 in the CAA yet opened up as favored over first place Towson who is 13-1? That line is telling you who you should side with here. Elon’s most recent home game was an embarrassing loss to NC A&T which gave the last place Aggies their only conference win of the season thus far. The Phoenix bounced back nicely after that terrible loss topping the highest rated team in the CAA (UNC Wilmington) 81-70 on the road on Saturday. Now they get a chance to redeem that home loss vs the first place team in the conference. It’s a nice match up for Elon as their defense has been lights out ranking 16th nationally in FG% allowed (39%) and 45th in the country allowing just 31% from beyond the arc. They are facing a Towson offense that shoots just 41% on the season (340th in the country) while scoring only 68 PPG (307th). The Tigers have 1 loss in conference play but they’ve been quite fortunate winning a number of very tight games. In fact, their record in CAA games decided by 7 points or less or in OT is a perfect 9-0 and overall for the season in that role (all games) they are 13-3 in that situation. This team has won 12 straight, many were decided in the final few minutes, and they are due for a loss. This is not a great match up for Towson and we think they go down here. The Phoenix have the 2nd best spread mark in the CAA at 15-9 ATS and we like them to get it done at home tonight.

#724 ASA PLAY ON Washington State +12.5 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We’re absolutely catching value on Washington State here as we get them at the bottom of their market so to speak. They’ve lost 6 of their last 7 games which has driven this line quite a bit higher than in should be in our opinion. 5 of those 6 losses during that stretch for the Cougars came on the road and their 1 home loss was by 5 vs a very good St Mary’s team that beat Gonzaga already this year. To give you an idea of the line value, in that loss vs St Mary’s the Cougars were +6 at and now plus more than double that vs a Gonzaga team that lost by 4 vs the Gaels. Along with that, Gonzaga has been overvalued by the oddsmakers all year with a 10-17 ATS record. Wazzu is 9-2 at home (losses by 1 and 5 points) this season and their home splits are much better than their road numbers. They already rank 12th nationally hitting almost 49% of their shots overall, but at home that number jumps to 52% and they average 88 PPG in Beasley Coliseum, which is by the way sold out for this game. We feel it’s going to be difficult for the Zags to pull away from this really solid offensive team. 5 of Gonzaga’s 7 losses have come away from home (road or neutral) and in the first meeting with Washington State this year, the Zags were favored by 17 at home and won by 13. Now they are laying close to the same number on the road. In that first meeting Wazzu played without starter Watts (13 PPG) and he is now back and healthy. In that win, Gonzaga shot 56%, made 48% of their 3’s and made 7 more FT’s. Also, keep in mind that the Zags have a look ahead game on Saturday with St Mary’s who beat them a few weeks ago. We think Washington State brings everything they have in this game and it stays closer than most think. Take the points.

#702 ASA PLAY ON South Dakota State -6.5 over North Dakota State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota State has been unbeatable at home this year with a 12-0 SU record (7-2 ATS) and all but one of those wins has come by double digits.  They just faced the 2 teams currently battling them for 1st place in the Summit League, Omaha and St Thomas, and beat those 2 teams by 13 and 16 points respectively.  The Jackrabbits are shooting 53% overall at home, 39% from deep, and winning by an average score of 90-69.  While SDSU just easily took care of Omaha and St Thomas, North Dakota State is 0-5 SU vs those 3 teams (including SDSU) who sit in the top 3 spots in the conference.  The Jackrabbits already beat North Dakota State by 10 on the road this season limiting the Bison to just 7 of 30 (23%) from beyond the arc.  Not a huge surprise as South Dakota State is the #1 team in the Summit defending the arc.  NDSU is a team that relies more than any other team in the country on scoring from beyond the arc and if they aren’t hitting from deep they are in trouble.  While the Bison may struggle offensively here, don’t expect SDSU to have any problems on that end of the court.  NDSU ranks outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency and they are allowing 78 PPG away from home.  The Bison simply aren’t playing well right now as they faced the 2 worst teams in the Summit at home last Thursday and Saturday (Denver & Oral Roberts – both ranked outside the top 300) and went to OT with both (ultimately winning 2 tight games).  We like South Dakota State to get another double digit home win tonight.

#615 ASA PLAY ON Purdue +3.5 over Michigan State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We’re catching Purdue off a bad home outing vs Wisconsin and Michigan State off an upset win @ Illinois. We really like this situation for the Boilers. Their 10 point home loss on Saturday vs a red hot Wisconsin team was a game where the Badgers simply couldn’t miss hitting 62% of their shots overall and 40% of their triples. The Boilers, who thrive on creating turnovers (#1 in the Big 10) only forced 3 turnovers by the Badgers. Deadly shooting and almost no giveaways led the Badgers to that win on the road. Purdue’s other 2 Big 10 losses went to the wire losing by 3 vs OSU and by 2 vs Michigan. The Spartans shouldn’t be able to exploit the Boilers from deep as they are simply not a good 3 point shooting team as they rank 353rd nationally making only 29% of their triples this season (350th in made 3’s per game). They also turn the ball over a lot (15th in the Big 10 with a 17% turnover percentage) so that also plays directly into the Boilers defensive strength of creating giveaways. PU should have a big advantage from deep ranking 26th nationally hitting 38% of their 3 balls. While they are off an upset win @ Illinois, the Spartans have cooled off drastically after their 9-0 start to the conference season losing 3 of their last 5 games including a setback at home vs Indiana, the Hoosiers only win in their last 7 games. We like looking for really solid teams off bad performances and that’s what we’re getting here with Purdue. Not only that, they are underdogs so we have some cushion here. We like Purdue to keep this very close and have a shot on the road win (5-2 SU on the road in the Big 10 this season).

#306545 ASA PLAY ON Lipscomb -3.5 over Eastern Kentucky, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Lipscomb sits in 1st place in the Atlantic Sun and they are easily the best team in the league ranking 86th nationally per KenPom.  No other team in that conference ranks above 114th.  We’re getting the best team in the league with some extra motivation as they lost at home vs EKU just a few weeks ago.  In that game the Bisons shot only 39% which is well below their season average of 48% in league play which ranks them #1 in the conference.  EKU ranks 9th defensively in the ASun in FG% allowed at 46% so it’s not as if they are a lock down defensive team.  It was just one of those games for the Lipscomb offense.  Speaking of #1, here are the stats that Lipscomb leads the Asun in…FG%, scoring margin (+12.4 PPG), defensive FG%, defensive 3 point FG%, defensive scoring (allowing 67 PPG), and defensive rebounding.  8 of their 11 conference wins have come by double digits and none by less than 5 points.  On the road this team has only lost once in league play vs Northern Alabama who is tied with Lipscomb for 1st place in the conference.  The Bison were favored by 9.5 in their loss vs EKU and now we’re getting them at a low number because they are on the road.  Great value as this team is outstanding on the road and EKU doesn’t  have a great home court advantage (already 3 home losses this season).  All 3 of those losses came vs teams ranked 112th or lower, well below this Lipscomb team.  EKU is 10-4 in the conference but they rank middle of the pack in the league (5th per KenPom) and they have a negative FG% differential and 3 point FG% differential in conference games.  Lipscomb is the much better team and extra motivated for this one.  We’ll lay it.

#857 ASA PLAY ON Utah State +6.5 over New Mexico, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These 2 played just over 2 weeks ago and USU was favored by 4 at home in that game. They lost big, which is a rarity, and now we’re getting value here with the Utes getting a full +6 at the opener. USU’s loss at home vs the Lobos was by far their worst performance of the season. They lost 82-63, shot just 38% and from beyond the arc the Utes were 5 of 31 (16%) and made only 10 of 23 FT’s. That’s from a team that leads the Mountain West in conference games hitting over 37% of their triples. Just one of the games where nothing was going in which happens even to the best teams from time to time. We don’t expect a repeat performance from Utah State who is one of the best shooting teams in the nation (5th nationally in FG%) and they lead the MWC in offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. All those factors along with the fact they rarely turn the ball over (#1 in the MWC in offensive turnover rate) is why this team is so good on the road. They have a near perfect 7-1 record away from home with their only loss coming by 3 points. They have already topped some really good teams on the road including San Diego State, St Mary’s, and Nevada. The Utes shoot better on the road than they do at home (51% on the road) and they are allowing just 68 PPG away from home. The Lobos sit in 1st place in the MWC and USU is one game behind them so this is a big one. New Mexico is very good but this is too many points for a team that is also very good and has some extra incentive after getting embarrassed a few weeks ago. USU is 22-3 on the year with a 2 point loss, a 3 point loss, and then their poor performance vs the Lobos. The Utes have actually won 9 of the last 16 @ New Mexico and we think this one goes to the wire. Take the points.

#768 ASA PLAY ON Western Kentucky -2 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - WKY had a needed week off since playing last Saturday as they look to get some players back in the lineup. Last Saturday they battled valiantly with just 8 players available at 1st place Jacksonville State before losing 85-83. The Hilltoppers blew a 19 point lead in that game simply running out of gas in the 2nd half due to the short line up. It looks like starter Kalambay (9 PPG) will return after missing last week with an illness and key bench player Edelen could be back as well. WKY is 11-2 at home this season with their only conference home loss coming vs Jax State who as we mentioned sits in 1st place. MTSU will be playing their 3rd straight road game and they are 3-3 away from home in CUSA play with their wins coming by 1, 2, and 4 points. They are coming off a road upset win @ Kennesaw State where they shot 50% from the field and still only won by a single point. Despite their 5-6 league record, Western Kentucky is still rated as the 3rd best team in CUSA behind only Jacksonville State and Liberty who are in 1st and 2nd place. The Toppers have played the strongest strength of schedule in the league and have 3 wins over teams ranked in the top 5 in CUSA including a win @ Liberty who is ranked #1 (per KenPom). They’ve only played 4 home games thus far in their 11 game conference slate. These teams met a month ago @ MTSU and the Blue Raiders won 71-57 with WKY shooting only 33% from the field and 20% from deep. It was by far their worst offensive output of the entire season and we like them to bounce back tonight at home where they are averaging 84 PPG. If this one is tight as the line suggests, FT’s could be a key and WKY hits 76% from the stripe in CUSA play while MTSU makes only 65%. We’ll lay this small number.

#772 ASA PLAY ON Tarleton State +5.5 over Seattle, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Huge quick revenger for Tarleton who just played @ Seattle 10 days ago and lost 91-54 as a 9 point dog. Seattle shot lights out in that game hitting 57% of their shots overall (they average 42%) and 60% of their triples hitting 15 of 25. Seattle scored a ridiculous 1.54 PPP which is WAY above their season WAC average of 1.04 PPP. The Texans strength is their defense so you can bet they’ll put some extra emphasis on that end of the court and won’t let that happen again. Tarleton hasn’t been great on the road but at home they’ve been very feisty winning 8 of 10 overall (average margin of +11 PPG) with just 1 home loss in WAC play on Thursday by just 4 points vs Grand Canyon, the highest rated team in the conference. Seattle, on the other hand, has been a poor road team. They have yet to win on the road in WAC play and just lost by 16 @ Abilene Christian on Thursday night now 48 hours later they are on the road again. Seattle is shooting just 39% away from home and losing by an average margin of -7 PPG so don’t expect them to make everything in sight as they did at home 10 days ago vs this TSU team. As a road favorite the Redhawks are now 0-3 ATS this season and 2-9 ATS their last 11 in that role. Tarleton, on the other hand, is 3-0 ATS as a home dog this season winning 2 of those games outright. TSU won both meetings last year before getting clobbered a few days ago and you can bet they’ll be more than ready for this rematch. We like Tarleton to win this game outright so we’ll take the points.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Loyola Chicago -2.5 over St Louis, Friday at 7 PM ET - Loyola is 12-1 at home this season where they average 1.078 PPP compared to 0.972 on the road. Going back to last season they’ve won 19 of their last 20 home games. They’ve been outstanding defensively at home as well allowing 0.934 PPP on 40% shooting giving up only 64 PPG. Their only home loss came back in early January vs VCU who is by far the highest rated team in the A10 (per KenPom) currently sitting with a 20-5 record. The Ramblers have played 2 other top 5 A10 teams here at home and beat them both (St Joes and St Bonnies). St Louis began the conference season winning 5 of their first 6 games but they’ve been heading in the wrong direction for a few weeks now losing 4 of their last 6. They have not been a good team away from home with a 3-6 record both SU and ATS and 2 of their 3 wins came vs Fordham and Richmond, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. They average less than 1.00 PPP on the road (0.985) while allowing nearly 1.10 PPP. Turnovers have been a huge problem for the Billikens coughing it up over 20% of the time in A10 play (dead last) and they’ve turned it over more than 20% in 4 of their last 5 games. Tonight they face a Loyola defense that ranks in the top 100 nationally creating turnovers which should lead to some extra possessions for the Ramblers. We think STL continues their road struggles and Loyola gets the win and cover.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves - OKC played poorly for the majority of the game against the Heat on Wednesday night but battled back for a home win over the Heat. Chet Holmgren didn't play rest reasons and Alex Caruso playing sparingly. One of the Thunders greatest attributes is their depth as they bring guys off the bench and don't skip a beat. Minnesota doesn't have that luxury and they played a very short rotation against the Bucks on Wednesday with three starters all out. The Thunder are 8-2 SU when playing without rest this season with an average plus/minus of +9.3ppg. Minnesota is 4-4 SU without rest +4.3ppg. As a home dog the Wolves have just 1 ATS win in three attempts. OKC is a regular road favorite and a moneymaking 12-8-2 ATS as an away favorite +11.1ppg. The Thunder have a winning record against the West, Minnesota has a losing record. OKC has a big advantage offensively with the 6th best Offensive Net rating compared to the Wolves 14th. The Thunder are 1st in Defensive Net rating the Wolves are 6th. We like the visitor in this one.

ASA play on Golden State Warriors +7 at Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - This bet was scheduled back on December 11th when the Rockets beat the Warriors in an UGLY game that ended with a controversial call against GST which awarded the Rockets two game-winning FT’s. The Rockets were at home in that contest and had Fred VanVleet in the lineup and were favored by -3-points. The Warriors did not have Jimmy Butler on the roster who has fit in perfectly with Golden State. Both teams played last night so neither has rest advantage. These two teams have similar offensive and defensive Net ratings with the Rockets holding a slight advantage in both as far as season statistics go. It’s a very small sample size, but with Butler in the lineup the Warriors have the 6th best Net rating differential in the NBA at +11.0. Golden State is 20-14 ATS as a road dog dating back to the start of last season and they have won 9 of the last ten meetings with the Rockets. With this line inflated we will grab the value with Golden State.

#702 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +5.5 over Ole Miss, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Ole Miss is in a rough spot here having just come from behind late to win @ LSU and they have a revenge match with arch rival Mississippi State on Saturday. The Rebels had to come from 11 down with 3:00 minutes remaining in the game as a 6 point chalk @ LSU to win by 2 points on a tip in at the buzzer. The final score of 72-70 was the only time that Mississippi led in the second half and that was vs an LSU team that is ranked lower than South Carolina per KenPom. Now the Rebs have to face a South Carolina team that is 0-10 SU in SEC play so don’t be surprised if they aren’t fully focused on this game. They better be because the Gamecocks, despite their record, have been very competitive at home vs the top teams in the SEC. They’ve faced the toughest home schedule in SEC play having already faced the 4 teams in 1st or 2nd place in the conference along with Mississippi State who is ranked 31st nationally per KenPom. The only non-competitive game in that stretch was vs Bama way back on January 8th Since then they lost to Auburn by 3, Texas A&M by 4, Florida by 1, and in OT vs Mississippi State. Just prior to the SEC conference slate the Gamecocks beat Clemson here at home and that’s a Tiger team that just beat Duke and UNC and sits in 2nd place in the ACC. This team is more than capable of pulling off this upset and it’s a perfect situational spot for them to do so. We’ll take the points.

#686 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers -6 over Iowa, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - This Rutgers team can be handicapped really as 2 different teams. One with their star freshman Dylan Harper in the line up (he is projected as a top 5 NBA Draft Pick) and one with him out of the line up. He is back and at 100% and they are much better with him playing at full strength. He had a few games he attempted to play but wasn’t near 100% and only played 10 to 15 minutes. If we look only at games he played significant minutes and was healthy, in those games Rutgers is 4-4 in Big 10 play (5-8 overall Big 10 record) including home wins over Illinois and UCLA. Iowa, on the other hand, is on the other end of the health spectrum. They lost their top big man Freeman (17 PPG & 7 RPG) for the season a week ago and he’s missed the last 2 games (both losses). The Hawkeyes starting PG Thelwell also suffered an ankle injury vs Wisconsin and he didn’t practice this week so he’s very questionable for this game. We’re not sure how much energy Iowa will have left in the tank here. They just lost back to back home games vs Purdue and Wisconsin. They put a lot of energy and effort into that Wisconsin rematch after losing to their rival 116-85 in Madison earlier in the season. Now they go on the road after that disappointing home stand and they’ve been really bad on the road losing 4 of their 5 conference games away from home by double digits. Iowa’s strength is their offense and those numbers drop drastically on the road where they have a -17 PPG margin. Defensively they rank dead last in the Big 10 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and they allowed an average of 95 PPG on the road! This smells like another Iowa double digit road loss so we’ll lay it with Rutgers at one of the tougher home venues in the conference.

#654 ASA PLAY ON Texas +3 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Horns have back to back huge home games vs Bama & Kentucky as they sit near the NCAA bubble and need a few big wins down the stretch to make sure they get in. We like the value here and the situation for Texas. The Horns are 3-3 in their last 6 games and those losses were all fairly tight with margins of 3, 8, and 8 points. Of their 7 SEC losses, 5 have come by 8 points or less. They are facing a Bama team that has won 6 in a row and 9 of their 10 SEC games. The Tide seem to be a bit overvalued right now as they are laying -5 in this game @ Texas (opening number) and they were just +1.5 @ Mississippi State less than 2 weeks ago. That’s an MSU team that is ranked pretty much dead even with Texas in most metrics (KenPom, Haslam, etc…). We’re getting a 6.5 point swing from less than 2 weeks ago and the situation highly favors Texas with Bama facing arch rival Auburn (#1 and #2 in the AP Poll) coming up on Saturday. That game is already being discussed as one of the bigger games in the state of Alabama’s history. A lookahead spot for the Tide who haven’t been all that dominant on the road in SEC play. Since winning @ South Carolina (worst team in the SEC with 0-10 record) by 20 back in early January, Bama’s last 4 conference road wins have come by margins of 6, 5, 4, and 4 points. When facing the 2 highest rated teams in the SEC (per KenPom) at home this season, Auburn & Tennessee, the Longhorns took them to the wire losing by 5 and 4 points. This is a much more important game for Texas and we’re most likely into for another tight game. The Horns get one of the key players, Tramon Mark (10 PPG), back here after he missed Saturday’s loss @ Vandy. Take the points as we feel Texas has a decent shot at the upset here.

#618 ASA PLAY ON Michigan -1.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Wolverines have been waiting for this rematch since their embarrassing 91-64 loss @ Purdue on January 24th. Michigan’s other 4 losses this season came by margins of 1, 2, 2, and 3 points so their Purdue setback was by far their worst of the season. The Boilers shot 55% in that home game while averaging just under 1.30 PPP which is well above their season average of 1.18 PPP in Big 10 play. Michigan shot just 37% and averaged 0.90 PPP which is well below their full season average of 1.18 PPP. Purdue jumped out to a 32-11 lead just 10 minutes into the game and things snow balled from there. Now we get the Boilers on the road where their numbers drop off drastically. They are 5-0 on the road in Big 10 play, however those wins have come vs Minnesota, Rutgers, Washington, Iowa, and Oregon with the first 4 listed being the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference per KenPom and the Ducks are currently just 5-8 in league play. An easy road schedule to say the least. Even with that, the Boilermakers average just 71 PPG on the road (85 PPG at home) on 1.068 PPP compared to 1.217 at home. Michigan is undefeated at home this season (11-0 record) winning by an average of +20 PPG. The Wolverines are shooting 51% overall, 39% from 3, and averaging 1.162 PPP on their home court. A win here vaults them over Purdue into 1st place in the Big 10. The Wolves strength on offense is inside the arc with two very good 7 footers (Wolf & Goldin) where they rank 5th nationally in 2 point FG% at 60%. That happens to be Purdue’s defensive weakness ranking 285th in 2 point defense. Michigan defensively ranks in the top 40 in both 3 point and 2 point FG% while ranking 21st in defensive efficiency. We don’t see Purdue duplicating their red hot shooting in this rematch and we like Michigan to get the win and cover.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8 pm ET - The Bucks are coming off a game yesterday, a home win against the 76ers but we don’t feel fatigue will be an issue. The Bucks are 14-9 SU since the start of last season when playing without rest with a positive scoring differential. Very rarely are the Bucks a home dog. Milwaukee has been catching points at home just 8 times since the beginning of last season and they’ve won 6 of those with an average +/- of +6.5ppg. Golden State is coming off a huge second half against the Bulls in Jimmy Butlers debut but there is no way this .500 team should be favored by this number on the road. Golden State is 11-13 SU on the road this season with an average MOV of +0.6ppg. The Bucks are 7-1 SU at home in their last eight game and even without Giannis they have enough on this roster to beat this Warriors team outright.

ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - Super Bowl rematch from a few years ago where KC won 38-35 despite getting outgained 417 to 340. We like the script to flip here and the Eagles to win. The value is with the Eagles here in our opinion. KC was just favored by 1 point at home vs a Buffalo team we have power rated slightly below Philadelphia yet we’re getting the same number on a neutral site here. If you simply look at the statistics, you’d be surprised the KC is the favorite here. The Chiefs have been out gained this season on a YPP and YPG basis. They also have a negative margin in terms of YPC (rush) and yards per pass attempt. Philly is plus in all of those categories and by a wide margin. We understand that KC has been winning all season despite that, but we think it ends here. The Chiefs will have trouble slowing down the Eagles running game here. KC was really solid vs the run early in the season but down the stretch they were poor allowing 133 YPG last 7 games and gave up at least 4.6 YPC in 6 of those games & only ONE of those opponents finished the season ranked in the top 10 in rushing. Now they face a Philadelphia rushing attack that finished 2nd in the NFL behind Baltimore and is averaging 228 YPG rushing in their 3 playoff games. The Eagles have an advantage on both sides of the ball in the trenches with one of the top OL & DL in the NFL. On that note of being stronger at the line of scrimmage, the Eagles had a YPC (rush) advantage of +0.8 while KC was -0.3 in that key statistic. They average over 70 more YPG compared to KC on offense and allow 35 fewer YPG defensively. Philly has been a dog 3 times this season and won all 3 games outright and the underdog has now covered 17 of the last 23 Super Bowls. The one true advantage the Chiefs have is Mahomes who is much better than Hurts. We get that but will that be enough to overcome the other advantages the Eagles have? We don’t think so. Philly wins the Super Bowl.

#847 ASA PLAY ON Xavier +3 over Villanova, Sunday at 12 PM ET - These 2 met in mid January with XU winning by 6 despite Nova shooting better from the field.  The Wildcats have not played well since mid January going 2-5 SU over their last 7 games.  They are just 2-2 at home since January 10th with losses to Georgetown and Creighton and their 2 wins were both by 2 points vs Providence and UConn.  There only 2 comfortable wins in Big East play were vs Seton Hall and DePaul, by far the 2 lowest rated teams in the league.  During that same span, Xavier has kicked it into high gear and won 5 of their last 7 games.  Their only losses during that stretch came on the road in OT vs first place St John’s and @ Creighton who has now won 9 straight games.  The Musketeers also have an impressive win @ Marquette during this run.  Since January 10th, Xavier ranks as the 32nd best team in the nation and the 3rd best in the Big East behind only St Johns & Creighton (per Bart Torvik Analytics).  Nova ranks as the 7th best team in the conference during that stretch.  The Cats love to shoot the 3 and they do it well ranking #1 in the Big East in 3 point FG% and percentage of points from deep.  However, XU matches up perfectly defensively with this Villanova offense as they rank #1 in the Big East defending the arc allowing just 30%.  XU is no slouch from beyond the arc either hitting almost 39% on the year good for 17th nationally.  They outscored Villanova from deep in the first meeting (10 three’s made to 8) and if they do that again it will be very tough for the Wildcats to win this game as Nova relies so heavily in the triple and they do not get to the FT line (320th in percentage of points from the charity stripe).  This has been a tightly contested series with each of the last 6 meetings decided by 8 or fewer points with 4 of those coming by 4 points or less.  We expect a tight one in Philly on Sunday so we’ll grab the points with Xavier.

ASA play on Chicago Bulls +6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8pm ET - The Warriors made a big move at the trade deadline and brought in Jimmy Butler for Andrew Wiggins. Butler is expected to be in the lineup tonight against his former Bulls team, but chemistry may take a while for the Warriors/Curry to adjust to. Plus, Butler has only played in 5 games since mid-December so it’s unlikely he’ll have a huge impact on this outcome. In any regard, we are not about to lay this number with the 10-13 SU road-Warriors. Golden State is 2-5 SU their last seven road games with a negative Net Rating of minus -4.4. On the season the Warriors have a negative average point differential -0.4ppg on the road and a 3-5-1 ATS record as a road chalk this season. Chicago traded away their leading scorer Zach LaVine and have decided to rebuild with a young roster. The cupboard isn’t bare in the Windy City with Vucevic, White, Ball and Dosunmu still on the roster. Chicago is 9-7-1 ATS as a home dog this season with recent wins over Miami and Denver. Chicago does have a losing overall record at home this season but their average loss margin of minus -3.1 is good enough to grab a cover in this one.

#774 ASA PLAY ON UMKC -3 over North Dakota, Saturday at 6 PM ET - UMKC has lost 8 straight games after winning their first 2 in Summit League play yet they are still a favorite of more than a possession here which should tell you something. Their last 7 losses have come by margins of 7, 4, 1, 3, 1, 6 and 6 points so they’ve been really close to breaking through. Five of those eight games were on the road and their 3 home games during that stretch were vs the top 3 teams in the Summit (South Dakota State, St Thomas, and North Dakota State). Those are the only 3 teams in the conference that rank inside the top 200 per KenPom and despite losing those 3 games, UMKC took them all to the wire losing by 1, 3, and 6 points. Now they finally get a shot at a low level conference team at home and we think the Roos will take care of business here. In their other 2 games vs lower level Summit opponents at home they won by 14 vs South Dakota and by 23 vs Oral Roberts. The get a North Dakota team that is 2-9 on the road this season losing by an average score of 82-73. The Fighting Hawks are coming off a road loss on Thursday @ Omaha in a game they shot 54% overall (their season average is 43%), 56% from beyond the arc (their season average is 32%), and 80% from the foul line (they average 71%) and still lost. Now they are facing a very solid UMKC defense that ranks 2nd in conference play in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. On the other end of the court, North Dakota is terrible defensively ranking 349th nationally in defensive efficiency, 362nd in eFG% allowed, and 358th in 3 point FG% allowed. In the first meeting in mid January, North Dakota shot 47% (41% for UMKC) and made 6 more FT’s but won by just 4 points (game was tied with 1:00 minute remaining). We like UMKC to break their losing streak and pick up a win and cover on Saturday.

#664 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State +4.5 over Kansas, Saturday at 2 PM ET - KSU is playing their best basketball of the season winning 4 in a row including 2 road games @ Iowa State and @ Arizona State. Going back even further, they’ve played above their efficiency expectations in 6 of their last 7 games (per Haslam Metrics). This is a very dangerous team right now and this is their biggest game of the year. They lost by 10 points @ Kansas and the Jayhawks shot 55% from the field in that win. We don’t expect that here from a KU team that already has 4 road losses while shooting just 43% overall and 30% from deep on the road this season. The Jayhawks actually have a losing record in true road games this season (3-4 SU) and their 3 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 50 per KenPom. KU has lost 5 of their last 7 games ATS while KSU has covered 7 in a row. There is a lot of talent on this KSU team with big time transfers McDaniel (from Michigan), Hawkins (from Illinois), and Hausen (from Villanova) and they are finally all starting to mesh as a team. The Cats are always sky high for their home game vs KU and they’ve won outright each of the last 2 seasons here as a dog. They are 7-3 ATS this year as a home dog and we think they have a decent shot to pull another home upset vs the Jayhawks. Take the points.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 pm ET - The Bucks were dealing with trade distractions swirling around Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis and others which clearly had an effect on their play. With Middleton gone they can move on and focus on building chemistry for a strong playoff run. The Hawks made some moves at the trade deadline and dealt their second-leading scorer, Hunter, to the Cavaliers. Atlanta was dealt a serious blow last month when borderline All-Star Jalen Johnson went down with a season ending injury. The Hawks have gone 1-9 SU in their last ten games getting beat by an average of -8.3ppg. Atlanta will have a tough time scoring here with a depleted lineup and an offense that ranks 27th in Offensive Net rating in their last ten games. Milwaukee shouldn’t have problems scoring here with their 6th best FG% offense facing a Hawks D that is 27th in opponents FG% allowed. The Bucks rank 2nd in 3PT%, the Hawks are 26th in 3PT% defense. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season with the two teams splitting wins in Milwaukee. The Bucks have won the two most recent meetings in Atlanta by 11 and 9-points. Milwaukee is accustomed to playing without Middleton who missed a large volume of games with injuries so adapting without him shouldn’t be difficult. Atlanta may suffer in the short term without Hunter in the lineup and the new trade pieces (Levert & Niang) not in the building for this one. Lay the points with the Bucks (check Giannis status before tipoff).

ASA play on Denver Nuggets -7.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 9 PM ET - It’s highly unlikely that either of these teams are making a major move before the trade deadline today so we will back the Nuggets with the favorable scheduling in this one. On Monday the Magic looked horrific in a game against the Warriors. Orlando shot 43% for the game overall and 25% from Deep. They played like a completely different team last night in Sacramento, beating the Kings 130-111, shooting well above expectations at 57% for the game. The Magic are now 2-9 SU in their last eleven games with the worst Net Rating over that span of games at -13.2. Orlando has an EFG% of 47.3% which is also the lowest number in the NBA in that 11-game stretch with an average loss margin of minus -12.1ppg. The Magic are playing the second night of a back-to-back in altitude in Denver. Not only that, this is their 3rd game in 4 nights and 4th in 6 days so fatigue will be a factor against a Nuggets team accustomed to the altitude. Denver is playing at a very high level right now with 4 straight wins and 8 in their last eleven. If we examine that recent 11-game stretch we find the Nuggets have the best EFG%, 8th best Net Rating with an average +/- of +6.6ppg. Denver is 16-8 SU at home for the season with an average MOV of +6.4ppg. They are 5-1 SU their last five at home +13.3ppg. Denver has some of the best offensive numbers in the NBA, including an Offensive Efficiency rating of 1.193-points per possession. Orlando is 3rd in DEFF but teams have shot well against them as they rank 24th in FG% defense and 3PT% defense. The scheduling advantage is the difference here and we like the Nuggets to grab a big home win.

#794 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Tonight OSU has a chance to avenge their worst loss of the Big 10 season which came @ Maryland back on December 4th.  The final score of that game was 83-59 with the Terps winning easily.  The Buckeyes other 5 losses in conference play have come by a total of 20 points or an average of just -4 PPG.  The Terps have been a poor road team this season with a 2-4 record with their 2 wins coming @ Indiana by 1 point on a last second 3 point shot and @ Illinois when the Illini were dealing with injuries and were also dealing with the flu at the same time.  Maryland ranks 353rd in Haslem Metrics away efficiency stat and defensively they allow 1.044 PPP on the road compared to 0.833 at home.  They already have Big 10 road losses @ Oregon, @ Northwestern, and @ Washington, who all currently have losing records in conference play and combine for an 11-22 SU Big 10 record.  The Buckeyes have won 3 of their last 4 games, including a win @ Purdue, and they sit squarely on the NCAA bubble.  They are in must win mode, especially at home, and they’ve won 4 straight at home vs the Terps.  We’ll lay the small number in this one.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - The Kings were involved in the NBA-trade-hoopla when they sent All-Star level guard DeAaron Fox to the Spurs and in exchange received Zach LaVine of the Bulls. Fox was putting up 25ppg, 5 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game on 46.9% shooting. LaVine had similar numbers at 24ppg, 4.8rpg and 4.5apg on 51.1% shooting. Honestly the winner in this whole deal was the San Antonio Spurs but the Kings came out OK with LaVine and a bevy of future draft picks. LaVine will be in the lineup tonight with the Kings to face an Orlando team that is really struggling right now. The Magic just faced the Warriors the other night in what might be one of the ugliest NBA games I’ve ever watched. Orlando shot 43% for the game overall and 25% from Deep. The Magic are 1-9 SU in their last ten games with the worst Net Rating over that span of games at -16.5. Orlando has an EFG% of 45.5% which is also the lowest number in the NBA in that 10-game stretch with an average loss margin of minus -15.3ppg. Sacramento is 5-5 SU their last 10 games but a closer look reveals the five L’s are respectable coming to the Bucks, Nuggets, Knicks, 76ers (playing well right now) and Thunder. All five of those losses also came on the road. Sacramento is coming off a road win most recently over the Timberwolves after shooting 49% overall, 42% from beyond the arc. Even with a .500 record in their last ten games the Kings have the 11th best Net Rating in the league at +1.5. Sacramento has the 14th best EFG% over that 10-game stretch and has shot exceptionally well at home in recent games. The Kings have won 5 in a row on their home court by an average +/- of +8.8ppg. We like the Kings in this one.

#705 ASA PLAY ON Missouri +9.5 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Rough situational spot for the Vols who played a huge revenge game on Saturday hosting Florida who beat them by 30 points earlier in the year. The Vols got their revenge rolling the Gators by 20 points holding Florida to 0.69 PPP and just 4 of 27 from beyond the arc. It was actually Tennessee’s 3rd huge game in a row after losing to Auburn and Kentucky prior to getting back on track Saturday. They played that game without PG Ziegler as he’s having knee issues. It looks like he’ll be back here but not 100%. Not much is being said about Missouri but the Tigers have been sneaky good this season. They are coming off a blowout 27 point road win @ Mississippi State and they also topped Florida on the road this year giving the Gators their only home loss. Not only is that Florida’s only home loss, they’ve dominated teams at home (besides Mizzou) winning every other game by at least 18 points. The Tigers are 17-4 on the season and they only team to beat them by double digits was #1 Auburn on the road a game Missouri lost by 16. In SEC play Mizzou has better PPP margins (per 100 possessions) and they are 5-2 ATS as a dog this season covering vs high level opponents including Auburn, Kansas, Florida, and Illinois. Too many points here in a game we expect will be close throughout.

#722 ASA PLAY ON Central Florida -2.5 over Cincinnati, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’ll take another shot with UCF tonight. We were on them Saturday here at home vs BYU and they came up short losing by 6. BYU shot 11% better than UCF from the field and 13% better from beyond the arc in that game. It was tight throughout with each team’s largest lead being 7 points. Now we’re getting UCF with a similar spread at home (-3 open and -1.5 vs BYU) but the Cougars are much better than this Cincinnati team. We’re getting some solid value on the host here. As we mentioned in our analysis on Saturday, the Golden Knights have been playing well, just struggling to get over the hump. Their last 5 losses have all come vs top 30 teams and 3 of those were vs top 10 teams (per KenPom). And 4 of those losses came by 1, 4, 6, and 8 points. Their win during that stretch was a blowout 28 point win over TCU and their opponent tonight, Cincinnati, is much closer to TCU than the other teams UCF has been losing to. The Bearcats are struggling to say the least. They have lost 8 of their last 10 games with 5 of those 8 setbacks coming by double digits. They just lost by 13 at home vs a WVU team that had lost 5 of their previous 7 prior to Sunday’s win @ Cincy. The Bearkats now make a quick turnaround on the road after playing on Sunday while UCF is still at home and played a day earlier on Saturday. The Golden Knights have played the #1 strength of schedule in the Big 12 play (Cincy #8 SOS) and yet they have a better conference record (4-6 compared to 2-8 for the Bearcats) and they have better efficiency margins in league play. UCF finally gets to play a lower half Big 12 team (they’ve only played 1 since January 8th and rolled TCU) and we think they take advantage and pick up a home win and cover tonight.

#701 ASA PLAY ON Troy +1.5 over James Madison, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Troy is rated by KenPom as the 2nd best team in the Sun Belt at this point of the season behind only Arkansas State. The Trojans are 8-3 in the league and their 3 losses have come by a combined 8 points and they led by double digits on 2 of those setbacks. They’ve shown they can get it done on the road with a 3-1 record away from home in Sun Belt play with their only loss coming @ South Alabama by 1 point. JMU is on a nice 4 game winning streak but those opponents all sit near the bottom of the conference power rankings (ODU twice, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State). Versus upper tier teams in conference play the Dukes are just 2-4 SU with their 2 wins coming by 3 & 5 points. Troy has much better efficiency numbers in conference play outscoring opponents by 14 points per 100 possessions while JMU is outscoring their opponents by 1 point per 100 possessions. Troy has better conference PPP numbers both on offense and defense and they are 2nd in the league at creating turnovers. The Trojans also rank #1 in the Sun Belt in assists per FG made while the Dukes rank 14th. Troy is simply the better team and they have a winning road record on the season.

#666 ASA PLAY ON UNLV +3.5 over Boise St, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - UNLV is in must win mode at home after losing 4 straight games to go from 5-2 in MWC play to 5-6.  However, all of those games went to the wire with a 2 point loss vs Wyoming, 2 point loss vs New Mexico, 5 point loss @ Utah State and a 6 point loss @ Nevada.  In their loss @ Nevada on Saturday, the game was tied with just over 1:00 minute to go and the Wolfpack scored the final 6 points of the game.  Prior to their losing streak the Rebels beat San Diego State on the road and Utah State at home, 2 of the top 3 rated teams in the Mountain West per KenPom.  Versus the top 3 teams in the league (SDSU, New Mexico, and Utah State) the Rebels are 2-2 and their losses have come by 2 and 5 points.  This team has shown they can beat anyone in this conference and we like them to knock off Boise tonight.  The Broncos are 0-3 vs those top 3 teams and they haven’t been great on the road with a 2-4 record and their wins came by 2 points @ San Jose State and by 9 points @ Wyoming, 2 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference.  They are ranked 358th out of 364 teams in road efficiency per Haslam Metrics and they have a negative point differential in their 9 games away from home (road and neutral).  UNLV is 2-0 ATS as a home dog this season and 7-0 ATS in that role since the start of last season.  We’ll call for the Rebels to get the much needed home win on Tuesday.

ASA play on Miami Heat -3 at Chicago Bulls, 8:10 pm ET - The Heat have had plenty of time to adjust to not playing with a star player in Jimmy Butler as he has been suspended while forcing a trade. The Bulls just traded their best player in Zach Lavine and basically got nothing in return to help them this season. Chicago is clearly in tank mode and going to try and build through the draft. The Bulls are also shopping Vet center Nikola Vucevic to other teams which is another sign they’ve called it for the year. Chicago isn’t in the best scheduling situation here after playing 3 straight road games and also being on the road for 6 of their last eight games. They are just 3-7 SU in their last ten games overall and 1-5 SU their last six at home. Chicago has one of the worst home records in the NBA at 9-16 SU with an average loss margin of -3.6ppg. Miami doesn’t have a great overall road record this season at 11-13 SU, but they are a respectable 6-4 SU as a road chalk with an average MOV of +3.3 in those games. These two teams are nearly identical in terms of Offensive Efficiency with both averaging about 1.128-points per possession. The big separator comes defensively with the Bulls ranking 24th in Defensive Efficiency, the Heat rank 10th in DEFF. Miami has won 3 of their last four games and have moved on from the Jimmy Butler distraction. The Bulls are wondering who’s next to go from the locker room. Lay the points with the Heat!

#601 ASA PLAY ON Marquette +3 over St Johns, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - We like the Golden Eagles to bounce back after losing at home vs UConn on Saturday. The Huskies won that game 77-69 and looking at the stats it was amazing Marquette was even able to keep it that close. UConn shot 60% overall and 63% from 3 point range. Marquette shot 40% overall, 32% from deep, and missed 10 FT’s yet it was still a 6 point game with 30 seconds remaining. Marquette missed 7 shots in the last minute alone. Just one of those nights. They’ve done a great job of bouncing back off a loss as the Golden Eagles have only lost consecutive games twice since the start of the 2022 season, a span of 95 games. This year they’ve won each of their 3 games following a loss by double digits. St John’s is 19-3 overall and 10-1 in the Big East but they’ve faced the easiest strength of schedule in conference play. They’ve won 8 straight games since losing to Creighton back on December 31st but none of those wins have come vs the top 4 teams in conference play. Their only game vs a top 4 team (per KenPom ratings) in league play this entire season was a loss to Creighton. Not only that, many of those wins at home were tight beating Providence by 2, Xavier in OT, Georgetown by 5, and Butler by 8. The Johnnies thrive on creating turnovers that lead to extra possessions but that will be tough here vs a Marquette team that is very strong at the guard position and ranks #1 nationally in offensive turnover percentage. St Johns opponents have turned the ball over at a 20%+ clip in 4 of their last 5 games and that won’t happen here. The Johnnies are a poor shooting team ranking 10th in the Big East in eFG% and dead last in 3 point FG% in league play at 24%. They also make less than 70% of their FT’s. Marquette’s defense is off a poor showing but for the season they are very high level (16th nationally in efficiency) so they match up well with St John’s. The Golden Eagles have won 6 straight in this series and we expect a close game here so we’ll take the points.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - This is a rematch of the mid-season Tournament which the Bucks won 97-81 as a 5-point underdog. The Thunder were favored by -5-points on a neutral court in Vegas and are now only laying a slightly higher number at home. OKC is 20-3 SU at home this season with an average plus/minus of +14ppg. Last season the Thunder were 36-10 SU at home with an average point differential of +12.3ppg. OKC has the best EDIFF or Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +12.3, the Bucks number is 2.5. Milwaukee is 9-13 SU away from home this season after going 18-25 SU on the road last season. The Bucks are 1-4 SU their last five road games with the only win coming at Utah. They were beaten by 34 in New York, lost by 10 at the Clippers, won in Utah, lost at Portland by 13 and the Spurs by 26. The Thunder will be rested for this game while the Bucks are coming off a big game in Milwaukee against the Grizzlies last night. The Bucks are 2-5-1 ATS without rest this season. OKC has a little extra motivation tonight and win by double-digits here.

ASA play on San Antonio Spurs +4.5 at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 PM ET - The Spurs pulled off a blockbuster trade to land DeAaron Fox of the Kings without giving up anyone and now have a roster capable of making noise in the playoffs this season, and a title contender next season. San Antonio made a masterful trade to bring in the young dynamic Fox to pair with Wemby, Castle, Johnson and Sochan. This roster is now built to be a Championship contender for years to come if they can keep it together. Tonight, we like the Spurs and the points against a Grizzlies team coming off a huge win in Milwaukee last night. Memphis is coming off a brutal 3-game stretch which featured the Knicks in New York, home against the Rockets, then in Milwaukee last night. The Grizz are also shorthanded with Ja Morant sidelined with a shoulder injury. San Antonio is playing with double-revenge here as they lost twice to the Grizzlies in mid-January by 14 and 28-points. The Spurs were without Wembanyama in their last game, a loss at home to the Heat on Saturday, but he should be back for this game in Memphis. The Grizzlies are 8-13 SU when playing without rest since the start of last season with an average point differential of minus -1.3ppg. The Spurs are the best team in the NBA when playing with a rest advantage with a 9-2 ATS record and an average MOV of +8.4ppg. Grab the points with San Antonio.

ASA play on Portland Trailblazers +4 vs. Phoenix Suns – 10 PM ET - The Blazers are playing extremely well right now with a 6-1 SU record in their last seven games and the loss was a competitive game at home against the Thunder. Trailblazer bettors have been rewarded with 7 straight cashes against the spread. In this current 7-game stretch the Blazers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +12.1. Phoenix is coming off a big win last night against Golden State and the Suns haven’t been a good bet when playing without rest with a 2-5-1 ATS record this season. They’ve lost those ‘unrested’ games by an average of -5.5ppg. Looking at the Suns last 7 games we see they have a Net Rating of +4.3, 16th Offensively, 11th Defensively. Portland has owned the glass in their last 7 games with a Rebound % of 53.1 which is 2nd best in the league. Phoenix ranks 12th in REB% over their last 7 games at 50.5. Portland has been a solid home dog this season with a 13-8 ATS record. It won’t be a surprise if the Blazers win this game outright.

#808 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco -5 over Washington State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Nice revenge spot here for USF after losing by 11 @ Washington State in early January. The Cougs shot 49% (USF shot 42%) and hit 37% of their triples (USF shot 30%). The thing that stood out most from that box score was Washington State attempted and made 18 more FT’s than San Fran and still only won by 11. That doesn’t match up with the season long stats of these 2 teams as USF actually attempts 21 FT’s per game while Wazzu attempts just 19. We expect those numbers to even out or even push to the Dons favor at home tonight. SF is a perfect 13-0 at home this season winning by an average score of 80-64. They’ve won 11 of those 13 home games by more than tonight’s spread which is currently -5. WSU is on a tough stretch right now playing some of their worst basketball of the season falling short of their expected efficiency numbers in 5 of their last 7 games. Since January 4th the Cougars have a 2-5 record with their only wins during that stretch coming vs San Diego and Portland, 2 of the 3 lowest teams in the WCC. The other team in that trio of lowest rated teams, Pacific, beat Wazzu twice during that stretch including on Thursday night. Now the Cougars have to travel again (their 3rd road game in the last 4) and play a very good team on the road just 48 hours after losing @ Pacific. They haven’t been a very good road team with a 3-4 record and Haslem Metrics has WSU ranked 306th on the road in their home vs road metric. USF ranks 28th in that same metric at home. We like San Fran to win and cover this game at home staying perfect on their home court.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers -8.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 5:10 PM ET - This line opened at Pacers -4.5 and has been bet up to the current number but we still have value on Indiana at -8. Atlanta has a depleted roster right now with several starters out and they are coming off a loss two nights ago in Cleveland. This is also their 4th game since Jan 27th which included a back-to-back set on the 27/28th. Atlanta has lost 7 straight games with three road losses by 9, 8 and 22-points. Indiana was just favored by -6-points at home against a Pistons team that is playing well right now so this line isn’t as high as you might think. The Pacers have won 5 of their last six at home with the lone loss coming to the Cavaliers. The five home wins in that stretch of games came by 18, 16, 12, 13 and 14-points. In each teams last 7 games the Pacers have the 7th best Net Rating in the NBA, the Hawks have the 27th worst. Indiana has won and covered 4 in a row against the Hawks and the last time they met on this court the Pacers hung 157 on this Hawks defense.

#614 ASA PLAY ON Appalachian State -11 over Georgia State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We expect a huge bounce back from a App State team that just lost at home on Wednesday night as a double digit favorite. In that 1-point loss vs Old Dominion, the Monarchs shot 49% overall and 43% from deep, well above their season averages of 40% and 28% respectively. And that was vs a very good defensive team in App State who 18th nationally in eFG% allowed and 8th nationally in 3 point FG% allowed. ODU was the first team in Sun Belt play to top 70 points vs the Mountaineers. Just an aberration in our opinion and we can expect App State to be very focused here, especially on the defensive end. Not only do we catch ASU in a good spot, we are getting Georgia State in a great fade situation after they pulled off an upset @ Marshall on Thursday night as a double digit dog. Similar to ODU vs App State, the Panthers shot WAY above their averages vs Marshall in that Thursday night win. Georgia State hit a ridiculous 62% of their shots and 50% of their triples. They average 43% and 32% on the season. Prior to that upset win, GSU was 0-7 on the road this season with 6 of those losses coming by at least 14 points. In their other road games vs top 5 teams in the Sun Belt (per KenPom) the Panthers lost @ Troy by 20 and @ Arkansas State by 26. App State ranks as the 3rd best team in the conference so similar competition to Troy and Arkansas State. Huge defensive edge for App State here as they rank 63rd nationally in defensive efficiency while Ga State ranks 323rd. The Panthers also rank dead last in the Sun Belt in eFG% defense and are getting outscored by 10 points every 100 possessions in league play (ASU is outscoring their opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions). The Mountaineers have an extra day to prepare for this one after playing on Wednesday compared to Ga State on Thursday and we like the host to win big here.

ASA play on Toronto Raptors -3.5 vs. Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - The Raptors are playing lights out basketball right now with 5 straight wins and victories in 7 of their last eight games. The only loss in that stretch of games was in Milwaukee, who is playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. In fact, Toronto has the 2nd best Net Rating in the league over their last five games at +14.6. Only the Knicks have been better in that span of games at +15.6. The Bulls are playing poorly as their entire team gets mentioned in trades daily and it’s clearly had an impact on their play. Chicago is 2-8 SU in their last ten games and has the 5th worst Net Rating in that stretch of games at -8.8. All but one of the Bulls last eight losses have come by more than tonight’s point spread. Chicago’s defense is near the bottom of the league in several categories including Defensive Efficiency as they allow 1.161PPP, 23rd most in the NBA. The Raptors don’t have great season statistics, but again, in their last five games they have the 2nd best DEFF in the league allowing 1.057PPP. The trade distractions for the Bulls is apparent and the Raptors are playing at a peak level right now. Lay the points with Toronto.

#726 ASA PLAY ON Santa Clara +4.5 over St Mary’s, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - St Mary’s is officially overvalued after winning 8 straight games. They are in a difficult situational spot after playing @ Washington State on Saturday and now on the road again tonight. Not only that, but it’s also the Gaels 4th road game in their last 5 games and they have their biggest home game of the year on Saturday hosting Gonzaga. They are 8-0 in WCC play but they’ve faced the easiest strength of schedule in the conference and have not played any of the top 4 rated teams in the league (per KenPom) until tonight. STM’s road wins in conference play prior to beating Wazzou on Saturday came @ Portland, @ San Diego, and @ Pepperdine, 3 of the 4 worst teams in the WCC. Their 80-75 win over Washington State on Saturday was impressive but the Gaels also needed to overcome a double digit 2nd half deficit. In that tight win, St Mary’s shot 57% overall, 41% from 3 and 93% from the FT line, way above their season averages of 46%, 34%, and 70% respectively yet still needed a solid comeback late to win that game. Santa Clara is 6-3 in WCC play but they’ve faced the much more difficult schedule already facing San Francisco twice, Oregon State twice, Washington State, and Gonzaga. That 6 games vs the top 6 teams in the league while St Mary’s has played 2 such games (vs Wash St and San Francisco). The Broncos are coming off a loss @ Oregon State on Saturday but back home where they are 4-0 vs WCC opponents this season including a 28 point win over Washington State and a 23 point win over San Francisco. And let’s not forget Santa Clara’s road win @ Gonzaga just a week and half ago. The Broncos are the better shooting team (FG%, 3 point FG% and FT%) and this is their biggest game of the season at home. St Mary’s has been coasting vs mainly lower tier competition and this will be their toughest game since losing at home vs Utah State on Dec 22. With the Zags on deck for St Mary’s we see a letdown spot and Santa Clara pulling the upset.

#732 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi -6 over Texas, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot for the Rebels.  They are coming off 3 straight losses and they catch Texas off a 22 point come from behind home win over rival Texas A&M.  The 3 straight losses for Ole Miss, who had won 9 of their previous 10 prior, came @ Mississippi State in OT, at home by 1 point vs A&M in a game the Rebs led by double digits in the 2nd half and still led by 4 with under 25 seconds remaining, and then @ Missouri on Saturday by 8.  In their loss @ Mizzou, the Tigers made 11 threes in that game (6 for Ole Miss) and made 28 FT’s to 13 for the Rebels.  That means from the 3 point line + free throws, Missouri had a +30 point advantage and still only won by 8 points at home.  This is one of the top teams in the SEC and extra hungry for a home win (9-1 at home) after 3 straight setbacks.  Texas comes in and might be physically and emotionally spent after their win over A&M on Saturday.  They trailed 51-29 with 17 minutes remaining in the game and expended a massive amount of energy to get back in the game and win on a shot with only a few seconds remaining.  They made 11 more FT’s than the Aggies and still needed late heroics to win that game.  Texas played that game without 2 of their top 6 rotation guys, which was impressive, but made that comeback even more draining on this game.  Arthur Kaluma (14 PPG & 8 RPG) and Chendall Weaver (7 PPG & 5 RPG) were both out of the line up on Saturday and it looks like Weaver definitely won’t play here and Kaluma is questionable at best.  The Horns have played 3 conference road games beating Oklahoma on the road by 4 and getting blown out by 20+ points @ Florida and @ A&M.  Ole Miss has played the tougher strength of schedule this season and they have better efficiency numbers both offensive and defensively.  Their defense ranks 10th nationally in efficiency and they create turnovers at the 6th highest rate in college basketball.  You think Ole Miss coach Chris Beard wants this one a little more than any other game they’ve played?  He was canned by Texas after the 2021/22 season.  He led the Horns to a 22-12 record that season including a win in the NCAA tourney but was fired because of a domestic abuse charge.  The spot doesn’t get much better for Ole Miss and we’ll lay it.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 8pm ET - The Spurs just spent some time overseas in France for a two-game set with the Pacers. After that distraction and travel we will bet against them here versus the Clippers. L.A. is coming off a 109-111 loss on Monday night to the Suns and we expect them to bounce back here with a resounding road win. The Clippers are 11-8 ATS when coming off a loss with a positive differential of +1.2ppg. As a road favorite this season the Clippers are 3-3 ATS but they have an average plus/minus in those games of +9.7ppg. San Antonio is 5-8 ATS as a home dog with a negative differential of minus -6.4ppg. The Spurs have faced the Grizzlies twice, Denver and this Clippers team in their last four true home games. They were beaten by 28 and 14 by Memphis, lost by 1-point to Denver and embarrassed this Clippers club by 36 on this court. Kawhi Leonard did not play in the most recent meeting and should be available this time around. Looking at the Clippers 10 most recent games we find they have the 3rd best Net Rating differential in the NBA. In that same 10 games the Spurs rank 25th. The Spurs offense will have a tough time against this Clippers defense that is 3rd in opponents FG%, 3rd in 3PT% and give up the 3rd fewest points per gam3e at 106.9. Before getting throttled in the most recent meeting the Clippers had won 8 in a row against the Spurs, four of which were in San Antonio, all by more than this spread.

#620 ASA PLAY ON Georgia -7.5 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Georgia has lost 4 straight games with 3 of those losses coming vs teams rated in the top 6 nationally per KenPom.  3 of those 4 games were on the road and their lone home game was a 2 point loss vs Auburn, the #1 team in the country.  That was UGA’s only home loss of the season.  Their most recent loss on Saturday @ Florida was an embarrassing effort and by far their worst loss of the season (89-59 final) giving the Bulldogs some extra incentive for this one.  After that rough stretch of opponents, the Bulldogs are happy to be back home and facing the lowest rated team in the conference, South Carolina who sits with an 0-7 record in the SEC.  The Gamecocks have been fairly competitive at home but on the road they’ve lost 2 of their 3 games by 20+ points.  They are in a really rough situational spot here coming off 2 down to the wire SEC home losses including an OT setback vs Mississippi State on Saturday.  After expending lots of energy (both physical and emotional) in those 2 home games only to come up short in both, we wouldn’t be surprised if SC doesn’t have much left in the tank for this one.  The Gamecocks offense has been really poor in SEC play averaging just 61 PPG and ranking dead last in offensive efficiency.  Facing a UGA defense that ranks 20th nationally in defensive efficiency won’t be much help for this offense.  SC also turns the ball over more than any other team in the conference (24% turnover rate).  Georgia’s 2 home wins in the SEC have come vs Kentucky and Oklahoma, both much better teams than South Carolina, and the Dogs beat both those teams by double digits.  Georgia is a good team in desperation mode and we look for another double digit home win on Tuesday.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5 at Portland Trailblazers, 6pm et - The Blazers four game winning streak is a bit of fool’s gold as it came against four teams with a combined 77-102 SU record and each team has some current ‘issues’. In that stretch of games, the Blazers beat the Heat and Bulls who are in the middle of several trade rumors, Orlando who is adjusting to players coming back and Charlotte without LaMelo Ball. Porland returns home where they are 9-12 SU with a negative point differential of -9.1ppg. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss to the Mavericks, so we expect them to bounce back here with a little more energy and focus than normal. The Thunder are 41-34 ATS going back to 2022 when coming off a SU loss. OKC is 16-5 SU, 12-7-2 ATS this season on the road with the best average Margin of Victory at +10.1ppg. Recently the Blazers lost at home by 22 to the Rockets (-11) and by 29 to the Clippers (-7). OKC has won 14 straight meetings with the Blazers including a win on this court in early November by 23-points. We typically don’t like laying double-digits on the road but will make an exception here.

#102 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -6 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were on the Eagles last week (released them on Friday at -6) and had a bit of rough luck as they won by 6 but missed 2 extra points. We’ll grab them again this week vs division rival Washington. These 2 met twice this season with Philly winning by 8 at home and losing by 3 on the road. Their road loss came with an asterisk as the Eagles led 14-0 in that game in the 1st quarter and lost their QB Hurts to a concussion. They played the rest of the game with back up Kenny Pickett and still led by 13 in the 4th quarter. The Commanders took the 36-33 win with a late TD with just 6 seconds remaining. Philly outgained Washington 5.7 YPP to 5.1 YPP in the 2 games combined and rushed for 228 and 211 yards in those meetings so we look for the Birds to control the trenches again in this one. Washington is a bit fortune to be here. They were outgained by 1.4 YPP in their win over Tampa Bay and outgained again by 1.1 YPP in their win @ Detroit last week. They have a ridiculous +6 turnover margin in those two games which is the main reason they are sitting in this spot. Situationally this is a very difficult spot for the Commanders. They are playing their 4th straight road game while Philadelphia is playing their 5th straight home game. This is just the 8th time since 2000 where a team is playing their 4th straight road game in the playoffs. The previous 7 teams that fell into that situation were 0-7 SU. Washington is also looking to become just the 2nd team in NFL history to win 3 straight games as an underdog in the playoffs. The Eagles have a few players banged up including QB Hurts but it looks like they’ll all be OK to play here. A rookie QB has never played in the Super Bowl and we don’t think it will happen this year with Jayden Daniels. We’ll call Philly to win by at least a TD on Sunday.

#838 ASA PLAY ON Indiana +3.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Needless to say IU is in a must win spot here at home. Following this game the Hoosiers go on a stretch that includes Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, and UCLA in their next 5 games. They have lost 3 of their last 4 and we’re catching some value with them because of that. They should also have some added incentive as their last home game was a 94-69 loss vs Illinois. An embarrassing effort and now they get a chance to redeem themselves in front of their home crowd. After that loss, the Hoosiers did travel to Ohio State and pick up a win as a dog and then lost @ Northwestern on Wednesday in a game they led at half but allowed the Cats to roll up 54 points in the 2nd half. Head coach Mike Woodson has stressed that defensive collapse this week and we look for a solid effort on that end of the court from the Hoosiers. IU got NBA prospect Reneau (13 PPG & 6 RPG) back in the line up @ Northwestern after missing 5 straight games. He was a bit rusty but now with a game under his belt we expect him to be more involved on Sunday. The Hoosiers are catching Maryland off a huge upset @ Illinois on Thursday (IU with an extra day having played on Wednesday) and now on the road again a few days later. In that blowout win @ Illinois one of the Illini’s top players, big man Ivisic (13 PPG & 8.5 RPG) was announced out just prior to game time with an illness. The Illini didn’t respond well and Maryland ran them off the court hitting 50% of their shots for the game. That sets this one up nicely situation wise along with pushing this number higher than it should be in our opinion. Prior to that win, the Terps were 0-4 in true road games this year including losing 2 of those games as a favorite (@ Washington and @ NW). Despite their loss most recent home loss vs Illinois, the Hoosiers are still 11-1 SU at home this season. This one is tight in our opinion so we’ll take the points with the home team.

ASA play on LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30pm et - The Clippers and Bucks got off to poor starts this season, but both have turned things around with Milwaukee winning 5 straight and 8 of ten, while the Clippers are 5-2 SU their last seven. LA has also won 16 of their last twenty home games, 6 of their last eight in their own building by an average of +15ppg. When it comes to overall season statistics these teams are identical in terms of Net Rating at +3.3. At home the Clippers Net Rating is +7.9, the 5th highest number in the NBA, the Bucks road Net Rating is -2.4 or 17th. The biggest advantage for the Clippers in this matchup is on the boards. LA is the 6th best rebounding team in the NBA the Bucks are 14th. Milwaukee is last in the NBA in offensive rebounding but 1st in defensive rebounding. The Clippers though average just 3 less defensive rebounds per game than Milwaukee so there isn’t much of an advantage there. The Bucks are in the center of trade rumors which has to be a distraction for several players including key contributors in Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis and others. Of the Bucks 8 road wins this season only two have come against teams with winning records. Lay the points here with the Clippers.

#796 ASA PLAY ON California -9 over Miami FL, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - We were on Stanford over Miami on Wednesday night and picked up an easy win with the Cardinal winning 88-51.  As we stated on Wednesday, it looks like the Canes have already packed it in for the season.  They have now lost 14 of their last 15 games and since their head coach Jim Larranaga stepped down in late December, they haven’t won a game (0-7 SU).  Miami’s last 3 losses have come by margins of 35, 43, and 37 points and their only single digit loss since January 1st was vs Va Tech who rates 170th nationally which is only ahead of Miami and BC in the ACC.  They are not only losing, they aren’t even coming close to covering on many nights and their season spread record is now 3-16 ATS.  They face a Cal team that has some solid momentum after back to back wins including topping a solid Florida State team by 9 points on Wednesday.  Not only did they win that game (as a dog), they did so with their leading scorer, Stojakovic (19 PPG), out due to illness.  It looks like he’ll be back here and the Bears should be at full strength.  Cal’s offense has been very efficient this season (top 75 in offensive efficiency) and they are averaging 80 PPG at home.  That should continue tonight facing a terrible Miami defense that ranks 361st in opponents FG%, 364th (dead last) in opponent’s 3 point FG%, and 343rd in scoring defense allowing 80 PPG.  The Canes are only averaging 64 PPG on the road and they’ve been held to 54 or less in their last 2 road games.  Looks like blowout potential here with Cal.  We’ll lay it.

#790 ASA PLAY ON Xavier -1.5 over UConn, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Xavier has been playing really well as they try to get themselves back into NCAA tourney consideration (12-8 overall record). They have won 3 of their last 4 games, including upsetting Marquette on the road. Their 1 loss during that stretch was in OT on Wednesday @ St Johns, who is in first place in the Big East with an 8-1 record, and XU held a 16 point 2nd half lead in that game. The Musketeers led that game by 10 at half and St Johns led for a grand total of 30 seconds in the 2nd half before the game went to OT. Xavier ranks 91st nationally in Haslam’s Momentum metric since January 1st while UConn ranks 305th. The Huskies simply aren’t playing well right now. They are 6-2 in Big East play but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the conference (9th SOS out of 11 – Xavier has played the #1 SOS in Big East play) yet only 1 of their wins has come by more than 8 points. Their last 2 games were both at home where they lost to Creighton and squeaked by Butler 80-78 in OT. UConn’s defense has not been good this year (ranked 132nd in efficiency) and their 3 point defense has been really poor, ranking 341st in the country. That’s not a good match up for this Xavier team that hits over 38% of their triples which is good for 23rd best in the nation. These 2 met already this season in December and XU took the Huskies to OT on the road before losing 94-89. The Musketeers took Connecticut to the wire on the road in that game despite missing leading scorer & rebounder Zack Freemantle (17 PPG & 7 RPG) and he is back in the line up and has been playing very well. We expect XU to have a solid edge from the 3 point line again as they make almost 42% of their triples. We also look for them to have a plus margin at the FT line as UConn fouls a lot (opponents scoring 25% of their points from the FT line in Big East play which is dead last for the Huskies defense) and XU makes 78% of their freebies. This revenger sets up nicely and we’ll lay this small number.

#762 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana Tech -3 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - La Tech is 3-4 in CUSA play and MTSU is in 1st place at 5-1 yet the Bulldogs are a 3 point favorite in this game. Read the market as they say which is telling us La Tech is the right side here and we agree. While LT hasn’t won a conference road game yet, they are a perfect 3-0 at home in CUSA play and they’ve already topped the 1st (Liberty) and 4th (Western Kentucky) rated teams in the league (per KenPom) by 5 and 10 points respectively here in Ruston. Sandwiched in between those 2 impressive wins were 2 points losses @ Jacksonville State and @ Kennesaw State, who both sit tied for 2nd place in the conference. As we mentioned MTSU is in 1st place in the league and they are 2-1 on the road in conference play. Their 2 road wins came vs FIU, by far the lowest rated team in the conference, and vs Sam Houston State, the 3rd lowest rated team in the conference. Their win over SHSU was on Thursday night and it was down to the wire with the Blue Raiders winning 77-75. In that game SHSU missed a layup as time expired which would have sent the game to OT. Middle Tennessee shot a 47% in that win (43% for Sam Houston) and they made 12 of 26 triples for 46% which was well above their season average of 32% (219th in 3 point FG%). Even with that, this one came to the wire vs a lower tier CUSA team. That won’t happen again in this game as La Tech ranks 25th nationally defending the arc allowing just 29%. The Bulldogs are much better than their 3-4 conference record (La Tech is rated 3rd best team in the league per KenPom) and they are in a must win spot at home if they want to have a chance to move up toward the top of the CUSA standings. Tech also has some extra incentive here as they finished 22-10 last year but were surprisingly knocked out of the Conference USA tourney by this MTSU team who finished 14-19 last season. Let’s lay it with the home team.

#648 ASA PLAY ON George Washington +1 over St Louis, Saturday at 2 PM ET - GW in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses. 2 of those were road losses, including an OT setback vs George Mason who is 6-1 in the A10, and then a home loss to a red hot Duquesne team. The Revolutionaries were 9-0 at home prior to their Duquesne setback and we look for them to get back on track here. St Louis steps in having won 3 in a row but this team has not been impressive on the road this season. The Billikens were 0-3 SU on the road entering conference play and they have won 2 A10 road games but those game @ Fordham and @ Richmond, the 2 worst teams ni the conference who have a combined league record of 2-10. The one good team the played on the road in A10 play was @ VCU and St Louis lost that game by 16 points. They Billikens rank 247th in Haslam Metrics home vs road category while GW ranks 69th at home in that metric. St Louis relies pretty heavily on the 3 point shot (40th nationally in percentage of points from deep) but they are running into a very good 3 point defense here as the Revolutionaries rank 30th nationally allowing opponents to make only 29% from beyond the arc. GW should also get a number of extra possessions creating turnovers ranking in the top 70 in the country creating giveaways on 19% of opponents possessions while STL turns it over a lot (247th in offensive turnover percentage). George Washington is a bit weak on the boards but that shouldn’t hinder them in this game as the Billikens are as well ranking 327th in offensive rebounding percentage. St Louis has two huge home games on deck next week vs VCU and Dayton (the 2 highest rated teams in the conference) so they might be peaking ahead to those games. They are also playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 games and we think they get beat here. We’ll take George Washington at home.

#890 ASA PLAY ON Iowa -2.5 over Penn State, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’re catching Iowa at the bottom of the market here as they are coming off 3 straight losses including a setback vs Minnesota on Tuesday night. Because of that we’re getting the Hawkeyes at a cheap price at home tonight in a must win game. They lost @ USC and @ UCLA, which wasn’t surprising, leading into their poor performance vs the Gophers. In their 72-67 loss vs Minnesota, the Hawks made only 3 of 21 triples (14%) and averaged just 1.00 PPP. Those numbers were WAY down from their season averages of 38.7% from 3 which is 15th best nationally and 1.19 PPP which is 19th best nationally. We expect a bounce back from a team that is 10-2 at home (only other loss was vs #3 Iowa State) as they have been very solid at home shooting 53% from the field, 40% from deep, while averaging 91 PPG. They are facing a PSU team coming off a home win over Rutgers earlier this week, but the Nittany Lions are 0-3 SU on the road in Big 10 play and just 2-11 SU on the road in conference play since the start of last season. In their road games, Penn State’s numbers have dropped off drastically scoring 14 fewer points while shooting a lower percentage overall and from 3 point range. The Nits will also be without a key player, starter Puff Johnson (10 PPG and 5 RPG) who won’t play in this one due to an injury. Iowa was favored by 9 here last year and now we’re getting them at just -3. Take the Hawkeyes to win and cover at home.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +2.5 at Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - The Warriors are in a tough spot here having played a big game against the Kings in Sacramento last night. The Bulls last played on Monday and beat a solid Clippers team in their own building. Golden State is 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS this season when playing without rest with a negative point differential of minus -8.3ppg. Conversely, the Bulls are 6-2 ATS this season when playing with a rest advantage. Going back to the start of last season the Bulls are 17-10 ATS with a rest advantage and an average plus/minus of +2.4ppg. Golden State has some major injury concerns with Draymond Green doubtful and Kuminga out. Steph Curry isn’t the same player he once was and the second night of a back-to-back might be too much to ask of the aging Hall of Famer. The Bulls are 1-5 SU their last six games but played well most recently in their 13-point win against the Clippers. The Warriors haven’t been much better of late with a 3-5 SU record in their last eight games. We expect the Bulls to play well again here and won’t be surprised when they win outright.

#781 ASA PLAY ON North Carolina A&T +12.5 over Towson, Thursday at 7 PM ET - North Carolina A&T is 0-7 SU on CAA play which is why this number is set higher than it should be according to our power ratings. Despite their losses, they’ve been competitive in conference play with all of their losses coming by 11 points or less. Towson, on the other hand, is 10-9 on the season but they do not have a single win the entire season by more than 11 points (vs D1 opponents) and their lone 11 point win came in OT. Their average margin in CAA play this season is +3.8 points. The Tigers have been favored by double digits just twice this season and failed to cover both games winning each by just 4 points. Both of those teams, Morgan State & Stony Brook, are rated lower than this A&T team per KenPom. Towson is a poor offensive team averaging just 66 PPG while ranking 350th in FG% and 327th in 3 point FG%. Tough to cover big numbers when you’re a poor shooting team that struggles to score points. NC A&T is by no means a great team but they do a few things well that should keep them close here including not turning the ball over (5th nationally in offensive turnover rate). When comparing the Aggies to Towson, they shoot a better overall percentage, a higher 3 point FG% and FT%. They average 74 PPG on the season and have scored at least 63 in all but 2 games. If A&T gets to that number here, that should be enough to cover this lofty number. Towson has won 4 straight games (overvalued) and they have a rematch with Northeastern on deck. Don’t be surprised if they overlook this winless conference team that we think will give them a battle. Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -3.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2 PM ET - *Note being played in Paris, France today*. This is a sort of homecoming for Victor Wembanyama but I don’t think that’s going to play a big part in this outcome. In fact, it may be a detriment if the young phenom is “over-hyped” for the game. Here are the facts on this game. The Pacers are healthy and playing lights out with 8 wins in their last nine games. Over that span of games the Pacers have the 3rd best Net Rating behind the Nuggets and Thunder. Indiana has an average +/- in those games of +11.3ppg, also 3rd best in the NBA. It’s been the Pacers defense that has sparked this streak as their Defensive Net rating of 107.7 is significantly lower than their season number of 113.6. San Antonio is a respectable 19-22 SU on the season but they are starting to show some cracks in the armor. The Spurs have just 1 win in their last seven games with 5 of the six losses coming by double-digits. In their last ten games the Spurs have a -3.4 Net Rating which is 23rd worst in the league. San Antonio just won’t be able to keep up with this Pacers offense that is 4th in FG% and 7th in 3PT%. In comparison the Spurs are 21st and 24th in those two shooting categories.

#748 ASA PLAY ON Stanford -10 over Miami FL, Wednesday at 11 PM ET - It looks like Miami may have thrown in the towel.  The Canes have lost 13 of their last 14 games and just lost 117-74 at HOME vs SMU.  Their head coach Jim Larranaga stepped down in late December and since he left the team they’ve lost 6 in a row with 5 of those losses coming by double digits.  Their only non 10 point plus loss during that stretch was vs Va Tech who rates 170th nationally which is only ahead of Miami and BC in the ACC.  Not only are they not winning, they aren’t covering with a spread record of 3-15 ATS on the season which is the 2nd worst mark in college basketball.  They continue to play without their leading scorer Nijel Pack who has missed the last 8 games due to an injury.  This is a tough spot for a struggling team making the long travel west for the first time this year and playing a game at 11 PM ET.  Stanford has some really solid momentum coming off a win @ North Carolina on Saturday.  The Cardinal have won 3 of their last 4 games and they have a 4-3 record in ACC play despite playing only 2 home conference games thus far, both double digit wins.  They are 9-1 overall at home with 7 of those wins coming by 10+ points.  Stanford is facing a terrible Miami defense that ranks 361st in opponents FG%, 364th (dead last) in opponent’s 3 point FG%, and 338th in scoring defense allowing 79 PPG.  The Cardinal average 80 PPG at home and should top that number facing by far the worst defense they’ve seen in ACC play.  Miami goes down big again.

#717 ASA PLAY ON Murray State Pick'em over Southern Illinois, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We like this spot for Murray State (rated the 4th best team in the MVC) coming off back to back losses.  They lost @ UIC in 2 OT’s and then ran into a red hot Bradley team, who currently has a 16-3 record, in a home loss on Saturday.  In that loss on Saturday vs Bradley, the Braves shot 53% overall, 39% from deep, and made 89% of their FT’s   The Racers have been very good on the road this season already topping both Drake and Northern Iowa (ranked #1 and #3 in the Missouri Valley).  Metrically (Haslam Metrics) has Murray State rated as the 20th best road team in the nation.  They average more PPG, shoot a higher FG%, and a higher 3 point FG% on the road this year when compared to their home stats.  They are taking on a Southern Illinois team that has won 3 straight but 2 of those wins came vs Missouri State who sits at 0-9 in conference play and one of those wins was in OT.  SIU already has 3 home losses this season including 2 in MVC play.  The Salukis have played the easier conference slate (only faced 1 of the top 4 teams thus far) yet Murray State (faced each of the top 3 teams) has better league efficiency numbers on both ends of the court.  The Racers also get to the FT line a lot (23% of their points from the stripe #1 in the MVC) and SIU does not (14% of their points from the FT line – last in the league).  When the Salukis do rarely get to the line, they only make 62% in league play (Murray State makes 73%).  We like the better team in a bounce back spot to win this game on the road.

#654 ASA PLAY ON Texas -2 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Longhorns are in desperate need of a conference win as they sit at 1-4 in SEC play. They’ve had a really rough schedule to start the season already having faced Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas A&M, 4 of the top 5 rated teams in the league. In their home games vs Auburn (#2 nationally per KenPom) and Tennessee (#6 nationally per KenPom) the Horns were extremely competitive losing by 5 & 4 points respectively. Missouri, on the other hand, sits at 4-1 in league play but they’ve already faced the 3 lowest rated teams in the SEC (Vandy, LSU and Arkansas). They do have an impressive conference win over Florida by 1 point but they were also rolled by 16 points vs Auburn. While we feel Texas is undervalued right now, we also feel that Mizzou is overvalued coming into this one on a 4 game winning streak with 3 of those coming at home. The Tigers have only played 3 true road games this season (1-2 record) and they’ve played all but 3 games this year (out of 18 games) in the state of Missouri. Going back to the start of last season, the Tigers are just 1-11 SU on the road in SEC games and their one win came by a single point. Their defense thrives on creating turnovers for extra possessions but they are facing a Texas offense that only turns it over 14% of the time (14th nationally) so that edge should be nullified in this game. The Tigers have also been shooting lights out in SEC play (41% from 3) which isn’t sustainable while Texas (ranked 28th in 3point FG% on the season) has made only 29% in conference play so almost a full 10% points below their season average. We expect both to regress toward their averages which would benefit Texas at home in this one. Very small spread here for the host and we’ll grab the Longhorns.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +11 at Miami Heat, 7:30 pm et - These same two teams recently met in Portland with the Heat winning 119-98 as a 5-point favorite. Portland was coming off an extended road trip and playing their first game back at home. They shot well below season standards at 38% overall and 29% from beyond the arc. Miami shot above expectations from the 3-point line by hitting 19 of 44 attempts or 43%. The Blazers had an +8-rebound advantage. Miami is coming off a win over the Spurs on Sunday and has a big road game on deck against the Bucks, plus they continue to deal with the Jimmy Butler trade distraction. Portland got a much-needed home win over the Bulls on Sunday after losing 5 games in a row. The Heat are 11-8 SU at home this season, but 9-11 ATS with an average +/- of plus +2.6ppg. The Blazers have a winning spread record on the road of 11-9-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -8.5ppg. As a double-digit road dog, the Blazers are 6-3 ATS and won outright recently in Milwaukee as a +11.5 points underdog and the Bucks are rated significantly higher than Miami in our power rankings. Even though the Heat are clearly the better overall shooting team, we like the Blazers offensive rebound advantage in this matchup and expect that edge to keep them close in this one. Grab the points.

#624 ASA PLAY ON Duquesne +4 over Dayton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We were on Duquesne (+1.5) on Saturday over St Bonnies and picked up an easy 18 point outright win with the Dukes. This team continues to be undervalued because their overall record is just 9-9. However, 8 of their 9 losses came by December 11th or earlier and this team is now on a 7-1 run with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Davidson by 6. The Dukes lost their first 6 games of the season as they were adjusting to a new head coach and had some guys miss games early. Since December 11th, Duquesne ranks as the top team in the Atlantic 10 Conference and 25th overall nationally per Bart Torvik Analytics well ahead of the 2nd best team during that stretch which is VCU (53rd). During that stretch they rank 31st nationally in offensive efficiency and 39th in defensive efficiency. Their opponent tonight Dayton ranks as the 161st best team since December 11th with a 4-4 record during that stretch. Even more recently, since January 1st the Flyers are 1-3 and rank 251st nationally. This team is simply not playing well. Their lone win this month came at home on Saturday vs Loyola Chicago and that game went to OT before Dayton won by 2 points on a half court alley oop play at the buzzer. The Flyers made 12 more FT’s in that game (Loyola only made 9 FT’s and Dayton 21) and it still took OT at home to get a win. Dayton has now lost 7 straight games vs the spread but they continue to be overvalued as a road favorite here vs a team that is simply playing much better than they are right now. Our power rating has Duquesne as a favorite here so we’ll grab the value on the home team.

#287 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -8 over Notre Dame, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll go to the well one more time and play against the Irish here. In their quarterfinal game vs UGA the Irish were outplayed across the board but benefitted from 2 key Georgia turnovers (one led to a short ND TD drive and one took points away from the Bulldogs) and a 98 yard kickoff return. Last week vs PSU, the Irish got down 10-0 but were able to rally and score 10 points in the final 5:00 minutes to pull out a 3 point win. What caught our eye in that game was the PSU ran for over 200 yards and limited ND to just 116 yards and the Nittany Lions held a +2.1 yards per carry differential. They definitely won in the trenches which would normally get you a win. That’ will be the case here as well although it might be even more drastic. OSU’s defense ranks #1 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, and passing yards allowed while ranking #2 in yards per carry allowed. In their first 3 playoff games, they held Tennessee to 152 yards rushing (the Vols average 226), they held Oregon to negative 23 yards rushing (OU averages 158), and then shut down Texas to 58 yards rushing (Horns average 159). If ND struggles to run here, we think they are in trouble. They are not a great passing team (92nd in passing YPG) and OSU, as we mentioned, has the #1 pass defense in the country. The Buckeyes have had the tougher road to get here facing Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas while Notre Dame has taken on Indiana, UGA, and Penn State. Ohio State has outscored their 3 opponents by +59 points (closest win was by 14 vs Texas) and outgained those opponents by +470 total yards. ND has outscored their 3 opponents by +26 points and outgained those opponents by just +129 total yards. Ohio State has played the tougher schedule yet they are still better in all of the key stats including YPP margin, YPG margin, YPC margin, and yards per pass attempt margin. The Buckeyes have been simply dominant in their playoff run while Notre Dame, despite winning 3 straight, has not. The favorite has covered 5 straight National Championship games, and we make it 6 on Monday with OSU winning by double digits.

#394 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 6:30 PM PM ET - This game opened with the Bills as a favorite and flipped the Baltimore -1.5 with lots of public backing for the Ravens. We’ll now jump on the home dog as the Bills are getting points at home in the playoffs for the first time since 1967. There were 2 road favorites in last weeks Wildcard round, Chargers and Vikings, and both lost outright. Road favorites in the NFL playoffs are now on a 3-12 ATS run. Part of the line move is most likely due to the fact that Baltimore rolled Buffalo at home in the regular season by a final score of 35-10. However, that game was way back in September, Buffalo was really banged up at the time, it was a short week for the Bills after playing on Monday night, and Baltimore was 1-2 on the season so it was a huge home game for them. We don’t take much away from that result. Bills are 9-0 at home this season (54-18 SU at home since McDermott took over as head coach) while Baltimore was 6-3 on the road. Buffalo averaged 34 PPG at home this season and scored at least 30 in 8 of their 9 at home. The Birds allowed more PPG on the road this season than they did at home and scored fewer points on the road compared to their home games. The Bills defense ranks 6th in the NFL in EPA vs the run so they match up well with this Baltimore offense. Lamar Jackson has a losing playoff record and he’s only played 2 playoff games away from home in his career (1-1 record). Buffalo was embarrassed earlier this season and now they have a little extra motivation as they’ve been bet to a home dog despite having the better record and being undefeated at home. You can be sure that’s been discussed. Let’s also remember that the 2 teams with the best record in the NFL this year were KC & Detroit (15-2 and both had byes last week) and Buffalo beat both. We’ll take the Bills to win this one outright.

#852 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -12 over TCU, Sunday at 5 PM ET - The Bears are 11-5 on the season but they are much better than their record in our opinion. They’ve played the 3rd most difficult slate in CBB thus far and their losses have come all away from home vs Gonzaga, UConn, Tennessee, Iowa State, and Arizona. 4 of those opponents sit in KenPom’s top 16 and the only team that does not, UConn, ranks 27th. The Bears are back home where they are undefeated and in big time need of a win coming off a loss @ Arizona. They’ve taken care of business at home in a big way vs teams that are higher rated than this TCU team. Baylor beat Cincinnati here by 20, Utah by 25 (the Utes just beat TCU on the road on Wednesday night) and all of their 8 home wins have come by at least 20 points. Their average home score this season is 92-56! They haven’t allowed a single team to reach 70 points at home this season. After 5 Big 12 games the Horned Frogs rank 13th in offensive eFG% and 15th in defensive eFG% and they are only shooting 59% from the FT line (Just 62% for the entire season). They are averaging just 63 PPG on the road (only 70 PPG for the full season) and facing a Baylor team that lights it up on their home court shooting 52% overall and 41% from deep. We don’t see TCU being able to keep up offensively in this game so we’ll lay the lumber.

#392 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 over LA Rams, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Philly didn’t play great last week offensively (5.0 YPP) but they still topped the Packers 22-10 due to their strong defense. The Eagles stop unit has been lights out this season ranking #1 in the NFL in total defense, YPP allowed and passing YPG allowed. Since their bye week (in week 5) the Eagles have been easily the best defense in the NFL. During that stretch Philly has allowed only 4.3 YPP and 1.4 points per drive which is the best in the NFL. They’ve also held teams without a first down on 45% of their drives during that stretch which is by far the best in the league. They’ve held 9 of their last 10 opponents to 20 points or less and we look for the Rams to struggle here offensively. The Eagles might not need to do much offensively to cover this number. QB Hurts had missed 3 weeks leading into last week so he was a bit rusty but with a game under his belt we expect better results on offense. Philly should have plenty of success running the ball which is what the love to do (56% running plays - #1 in the NFL). The Rams defense ranks near the bottom of the league in YPG rushing and YPC and in their meeting in late November, LA allowed over 300 yards rushing on 7.0 YPC vs the Eagles. That was a 37-20 Philadelphia win on the road and now we get them at home. Teams that beat a team in the regular season and then face them in the playoffs are 42-24 SU in those games. The Rams are in a rough spot here with the LA fires affecting their practice time and they were forced to move their game to Arizona last week. Now they much travel across the country and play in cold weather (32 degrees and possible snow) which isn’t ideal for a warm weather, dome type team. The Rams are also on a short week playing on Monday night and now making the long travel. We like the Eagles to win this by at least a TD so we’ll lay it on Sunday.

#832 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -9.5 over Nebraska, Sunday at 12 PM ET - The Huskers are in a slump right now losing 3 straight games and their defense during that stretch has been atrocious. They have allowed 97, 104, and 85 points their last 3 games vs Iowa, Purdue, and Rutgers. They’ve been a very poor road team over the years (including this season) but the red flag for this team was losing at home vs Rutgers earlier this week. That broke a 20 game home winning streak vs a Rutgers team that had lost 4 of their previous 6 games and were winless in true road games prior to topping the Huskers. On the road Nebraska has played 3 games in league play and lost by 37, 36, and 10 points and they are just 5-18 SU in Big 10 road games over the last 2+ seasons. This season they average 12 PPG fewer on the road and they shoot 5% lower from 3 point land (just 30% in road games). Maryland is undefeated at home in conference play and their lone home loss was by 4 points vs Marquette back in mid November. The Terps have much better efficiency numbers in conference play as they rank in the top 8 both offensively and defensively while Nebraska ranks 15th and 16th in Big 10 play in those metrics. The Huskers are 1-5 SU @ Maryland and their last 2 losses have come by 22 and 19 points. Win and cover here for the Terps.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -11 at Portland Trailblazers – 10 pm et - We typically don’t like laying this many points in the NBA, especially with road favorites, but we will make an exception here. Houston is one of the better teams in the NBA at 27-13 SU with the 5th best overall Net Rating of +6.2. Portland is one of the worst teams in the league at 13-27 and the 29th or second to last Net Rating of minus -8.8. Houston had won 5 in a row, including a 20-point win at Denver and a 4-point win in Memphis prior to a loss most recently at Sacramento. In that stretch of games, they had a 23-point win in Washington against a Wizards team that rates similar to this Blazers team. Portland has really fallen hard in recent games with 4 straight losses, the last three have come by an average of 26ppg. Houston has a 6-1 SU record in their last seven road games with a Net Rating of +10.7. On the season the Rockets are 12-6-1 ATS on the road, 8-4 ATS as a road favorite. Portland beat this Rockets team the last time they met so we know Houston will not overlook them here. Lay the points with the Rockets.

#818 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco -3 over Oregon State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Great spot to fade Oregon State here after they pulled a huge home upset in OT over Gonzaga just 48 hours ago. The Beavers shot nearly 60% from the field in that game (Zags shot 42%) yet the game still went to OT. Now they have a quick turnaround on the road where they are 1-3 SU in true road games this season and 3-34 SU their last 37! They face a San Francisco team that has won 27 of their last 28 home games (8-0 this year) and we’re getting a cheap number here with the Dons. This is Oregon State’s first trip ever to play @ San Francisco which makes it a tough spot as well. The Beavers overall offensive numbers have been very good as they average 1.15 PPP but in their 4 true road games + 3 neutral site games, they’ve been held to 1.03 PPP or lower in 5 of those games. We think they’ll struggle offensive on the road again vs a San Fran defense that allows opponents to shoot just 40% overall and 27% from deep at home while holding opponents to 64 PPG. The Dons average 81 PPG at home this season and we think OSU struggles to keep up here. Lay the small number with San Francisco at home.

#808 ASA PLAY ON Texas A&M -11 over LSU, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - Great spot for A&M at home here as they are coming off back to back losses vs Alabama and Kentucky.  The Aggies took Bama to the wire at home before losing 94-88 and they lost @ KY on Wednesday night.  A&M played both of those games without leading scorer and future NBA guard Wade Taylor (16 PPG and 5 APG).  Taylor was not listed on the injury report on Friday evening so we’d have to assume he’s going to be back in the lineup on Saturday which is a huge boost to this team.  With Taylor in the lineup the Aggies are 12-2 including wins over Texas, Purdue, Ohio State, and Texas Tech, all top 30 teams.  They are 8-1 at home with their only loss coming vs Alabama (with Taylor out) and all of their 8 wins have come by double digits.  A&M has a 13-4 overall record (2 losses without Taylor) and they’ve faced the 10th most difficult schedule in the country this season.  LSU, on the other hand, has faced the 164th most difficult schedule and they have a worse record at 12-5.  The Tigers have played 4 true road games, lost 3 of those games (all by double digits) and their only road win was @ Kansas State (7-9 record) who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 12.  LSU has faced 6 teams currently in KenPom’s top 60 and they’ve lost 5 of those games, all by at least 8 points.  Their lone win in that category was at home vs Arkansas on Tuesday night (78-74 final score) and the Razors are in a freefall right now as they’ve lost 4 straight and sit in last place in the SEC.  Now they travel to A&M who is the 2nd highest rated team the Tigers have faced this season (#19 per KenPom).  The Aggies have far better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court (including #12 nationally in defensive efficiency) and they are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation.  That’ll be a huge problem for LSU that ranks outside the top 300 in defensive rebounding.  The Tigers also turn the ball over 19% of the time (273rd nationally) so between that and A&M’s offensive rebounding prowess, the Aggies should get plenty of extra possessions tonight.  A&M is 2-2 in SEC play and they have road games @ Ole Miss and @ Texas their next 2 tilts making this a must win.  We look for the Aggies to win this one going away.

#388 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -8 over Houston Texans, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - The Chiefs are as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season for this one. They sat key starters in the final week of the regular season and then had last week off. KC has their entire starting defense available for the first time since week 7 and their entire starting offense is also healthy with the exception of WR Rice. While the did struggle to cover the spread this season despite their 15-2 SU record, the Chiefs played much better down the stretch covering 3 straight winning those games by 14, 8 and 29 points (minus the season finale @ Denver where none of their regulars played). We expect the best version of Kansas City at home on Saturday. Houston is coming off a win as a home dog last week beating the Chargers 32-12 with the Texans benefitting from 4 LAC interceptions including a pick 6. Since 2011, teams that win in the Wildcard round as an underdog are just 2-20 SU in the Divsional round so not a great spot for Houston. Let’s face it, the Texans were pretty darn average all season. They finished 10-7 but played in the weakest division in football (all other teams below .500) and their point differential on the year was +0. They beat 1 team all regular season that finished the year with a winning record and they were 1-5 SU vs playoff teams. It’s going to be cold in KC on Saturday afternoon (windchill around 10 degrees) and dome teams simply haven’t played well in that situation with a 2-7 SU record when temps are below 30 degrees. KC beat this Houston team by 8 a few weeks ago, and now that they are rested and healthy, we’ll call for a double digit win on Saturday.

#662 ASA PLAY ON Duquesne +2 over St Bonaventure, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Duquesne is very undervalued right now due to their overall record which is 8-9.  However, 8 of their 9 losses came by December 11th or earlier and this team is now on a 6-1 run with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Davidson by 6.  The Dukes lost their first 6 games of the season as they were adjusting to a new head coach and had some guys miss games early.  Since December 11th, Duquesne ranks as the top team in the Atlantic 10 Conference and 31st overall nationally per Bart Torvik Analytics.  During that stretch they rank 39th nationally in offensive efficiency and 50th in defensive efficiency.  Their opponent tonight St Bonnie ranks as the 4th best team in the A10 during that stretch yet they are laying points on the road in this game because their record is much better overall.  The Bonnies have played a very easy schedule to date (256th SOS) and they only have 3 losses on the season, however 2 of those losses have come in the last 11 days.  They are 1-2 their last 3 games and their win came at home vs Richmond (ranked 215th) and the Spiders played that game without their leading scorer.  The Dukes have the rest advantage as well as they had a week off prior to their win on Wednesday @ George Washington who came into that home game with a record of 13-3.  St Bonnies, on the other hand, is playing their 4th game in 11 days. Two teams heading in opposite directions and we love the value with Duquesne as a home dog here.  Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - We have been on a few bigger underdogs in recent weeks, and they’ve worked out well for us and today we like another one in Toronto. Toronto is certainly suffering through a tough season with just 10 wins, and a big reason why has been injuries. This team is not deep and can’t sustain positive results when just one starter goes down. They are in solid shape right now and it’s shown in the last two games, both wins against the Warriors and Celtics. In fact, prior to the two W’s they had played well on the road at Detroit, Cleveland and New York with only one of those losses coming by more than this spread (NY -14). The Bucks are 5-1 SU their last six games but still not a team I trust laying double digits with. Milwaukee is 13-7 SU, 8-11-1 ATS at home with an average plus/minus of +6.0ppg. While it’s not great, the Raptors average loss margin is -10.9ppg but that number is skewed by two massive losses this season at Boston by 54 and at Memphis by 29. If you exclude the two blowouts, only six of the Raptors 18 road losses have come by more than this spread. Milwaukee has a pair of solid home wins in their two most recent games and have a bigger game on deck against Philly so it’s only natural that overlook this Toronto team that they have beaten twice this season already. At this number, we like the points with the Raptors.

#886 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -7 over Indiana, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Buckeyes showed some serious fight on Tuesday night getting down by 17 points at half @ Wisconsin and coming back in the 2nd half to only lose by 2. That’s back to back 2 point losses for OSU (Wisconsin & Oregon) and we like them to bounce back with a big effort at home tonight. They are facing an Indiana team that has played only 2 true road games this season, both in conference play, and they lost those games by 25 @ Iowa and by 17 @ Nebraska. IU is just 3-8 SU on the road in Big 10 play since the start of last season and offensively they scored just 62 and 68 points in their 2 road games this season. The Hoosiers are coming off an embarrassing 94-69 loss at HOME on Tuesday vs Illinois in a game they were dominated from start to finish. They are struggling on offense (60 and 69 points their last 2 games) with leading scorer Reneau about to miss his 5th straight game. We think they’ll struggle on that end of the court again tonight vs a OSU defense that ranks in the top 30 on both efficiency and eFG% allowed. At home the Buckeyes are limiting opponents to just 66 PPG and they just held a potent Wisconsin offense (13th nationally in efficiency) to 70 points on the road which is 14 points below their season average. OSU is better on both ends of the court (offensive and defensive efficiency) and if they can get their offense going at home, where they average 86 PPG, Indiana will be in trouble in our opinion. Lay it with Ohio State.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -3.5 vs. Houston Rockets – 10 pm - This bet sets up nicely with the Rockets coming off a very big win in Denver last night. That means the Rockets are playing the second night of a back to back (off altitude) and their 3rd game in four days. Sacramento is back home after a very successful road trip with wins at Golden State, Boston and Chicago. They clearly ran out of steam against the Bucks in Milwaukee most recently and are now coming off a loss back at home. Sacramento is 7th in Offensive Net rating this season and 14th defensively. They have a Net rating of +2.6 on the season. But in their last 8 games since firing Mike Brown they have the 4th best Net rating in the NBA at +8.0, 6th both offensively and defensively. The Rockets are 26-12 SU on the season and one of the bigger surprises in the West this season. They rank 6th in overall Net rating and have won 5 in a row. They are coming off 3 big games in a row though and will have a tough time in this scheduling situation. The Kings beat this Rockets team in early December 120-111, before they were playing at this level.

#836 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +1.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Northwestern lost their first home game of the season on Sunday vs a red hot Michigan State team and we expect them to bounce back with a win in this game. MSU shot 50% overall and from 3 point land in that 10 point win while the Cats shot just 36% and only 20% from deep. In that game, NW was a 2-point dog and now we’re getting them in the same range vs a Maryland team that simply isn’t as good as MSU right now and they’ve been poor on the road this season. That loss dropped the Wildcats to 8-1 at home this season and let’s not forget this team beat Illinois here earlier this season. The Terps have played only 3 true road games this season and lost all 3 @ Purdue, @ Washington, and @ Oregon. They’ve played one of the easier strength of schedules in the Big 10 (214th SOS) and vs top 100 teams Maryland has a 3-4 SU record. Northwestern has won 2 of the last 3 at home vs Maryland and the 1 they lost here was in OT. Since the start of last season, NW has been a home dog 5 times and covered 4 of those games. Last year they were favored by 4.5 at home vs Maryland and now a dog so we like the value here. Take the Cats to win outright at home tonight

#834 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska -8.5 over Rutgers, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Nebraska’s home vs road dichotomy is as drastic as any team in the nation.  They are 8-0 at home this year and 2-3 on the road (2-1 in neutral site games).  At home the Huskers average 83 PPG (71 PPG on the road), they shoot almost 48% at home (45% on the road), and 35% from 3 at home (30% on the road).  The Huskers have now won 20 consecutive home games dating back to last season while Rutgers is 0-3 SU on the road this year and they only win 3 of their last 17 road games.  The Knights are a young team with 4 freshmen in the starting line up so it’s not surprising they’ve struggled away from home.  Four of their last five losses have come by double digits and they are catching Nebraska in a tough spot with the Huskers coming off 2 straight road losses @ Iowa in OT and @ Purdue.  The Huskers are much better defensively (top 25 in defensive efficiency) and they are also better offensively averaging 1.12 PPP compared to 1.10 for Rutgers.  The Scarlet Knights have failed to cover their last 7 games on the road and we like Nebraska to win this one by double digits.  Lay it with the Huskers.

ASA NBA play on Charlotte Hornets -5 at Utah Jazz,  9 PM ET - When I casually glanced through the lines this number stood out immediately and I couldn’t understand why the Hornets were laying this number on the road. A closer look revealed the injury depleted Jazz are down another starter tonight and their best player Markkanen. That means Utah is down 4 of 5 starters tonight against this Hornets team. Charlotte is healthy for the most part and has the most important pieces available tonight in Ball, Miller and Bridges. The Hornets played well last time out in a close loss in Phoenix. They led going into the 4th quarter before scoring just 15 points in the final stanza. Prior to that game they had beaten the Suns at home, played close at Cleveland and Detroit. Utah is coming off a win over the depleted Nets most recently 112-11 as a -3.5 point home favorite. Prior to that win they had lost 3 in a row. If you examine the season statistics for both teams you will find these teams have similar overall ratings/statistics, but those numbers are based on healthy rosters. Utah has the edge offensively; the Hornets have the advantage defensively. Charlotte has just 2 road wins this season, but the Jazz have just 3 home wins. Given the health of both teams this seems like an easy call with the Hornets minus the points.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 8 PM ET - Memphis is 25-15 SU on the season and healthy again with the return of Ja Morant and rookie Zach Edey. The Grizzlies are coming off a loss in their most recent game on Monday in Houston 118-120 and we like them to bounce back here. Memphis is 11-3 SU when coming off a loss with an average margin of victory in those games of +11.1ppg. San Antonio had lost 3 in a row prior to their last game which was a win against the Lakers in Los Angeles. The Spurs are 12-8 SU at home with a marginal +/- of +2.6ppg. When coming off a win the Spurs are 8-10 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.3ppg. San Antonio is a great story this season with a 19-19 SU record but when it comes time to step up against the better teams in the NBA they’ve struggled with a 4-9 SU record against top 10 teams. The Spurs defense can match the Grizzlies offense in several categories but the big advantage the Grizz have is with their defensive edge against the Spurs offense. San Antonio is 20th in team FG% at 45.5% and the Grizzlies rank 3rd defensively in FG% allowed. The Spurs are also 25th in 3PT% and will have a tough time making shots against a Memphis D that is 5th in 3PT% allowed. Memphis also has the 2nd best offensive rebound percentage compared to the Spurs who rank 15th. We like Memphis here to get a solid road win.

#718 ASA PLAY ON Furman -2.5 over East Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a great bounce back spot for Furman at home after they lost by 19 points here on Monday night vs Wofford as a 7-point favorite. It was an embarrassing effort and their first home loss of the season (14-3 record overall). Wofford shot over 40% from deep in that game (13 of 32) while Furman made only 23% of their triples. The Paladins were also destroyed on the boards as Wofford had 20 offensive rebounds in the game gathering a ridiculous 54% of their misses. Veteran head coach Bob Richey (169-73 record at Furman) was visibly disappointed in his press conference and mentioned they came out on their heels and got physically bullied. You can expect them to come out aggressive right out of the gate in this one. Furman’s 3 point defense, which was torched on Monday, has been really solid this season allowing opponents to shoot just 30% from deep (56th nationally) so we look for a much better showing tonight. ETSU is just 2-6 SU on the road this year with their wins coming by 2 points @ Mercer and @ Charlotte, both ranked outside the top 230 per KenPom. Going back further the Buccaneers have won only 7 of their last 29 road games. ETSU has a 10-7 SU record this year despite playing the 327th most difficult schedule so far. Furman has played the much tougher slate to date and the Paladins have better offensive FG% and defensive FG% numbers despite that. We’re also getting some value here because of Furman’s poor performance on Monday as they were favored by 7 in that game vs Wofford who rates 15 spots higher (per KenPom) than ETSU. The Paladins have won 6 straight at home vs the Buccaneers and 9 of the last 10. They’ve also won 32 of their last games overall and they’ve only lost consecutive home games ONCE since the start of the 2015 season. We’ll call for a bounce back effort here with Furman getting the cover.