#112 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -12.5 over BYU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Big 12 Championship game is being played in Dallas so this should be a Tech home crowd. BYU needs to win this game to get Into the Playoffs while Tech needs a big win to make sure they sit in the top 4 giving them a bye. A win here probably does that for the Red Raiders while a big win could move them up in the seeding. These 2 met @ Tech this year (we were on the Red Raiders) and they dominated BYU 29-7. It could have been much worse as the Raiders pushed inside the BYU 25 yard line a whopping 8 times, scored 2 TD’s, kicked 5 FG’s, and were shut out on downs at the 2 yard line. Texas Tech’s only loss this season came by 4 points @ Arizona State and the Raiders played without their starting QB in that game and led that game by 3 with under 40 seconds remaining in the game. A late TD by ASU gave them the win. Since that loss, TT has outscored their last 211 to 36 for an average score of 42-7. They are in the top 3 in the nation in both scoring (43 PPG) and defensive points allowed (11 PPG). They sit in the top 7 in total offense and total defense. They have huge statistical edges compared to BYU with a point differential of +32 PPG (+17 PPG for BYU), +230 YPG (+90 YPG for BYU), and +2.5 YPP (+1.0 YPP for BYU). They continue to be undervalued covering 10 of their 12 games this season and Tech is not talked about enough. This team is good enough to win the National Championship. We’ll call for at least a 2 TD win on Saturday.

#110 ASA PLAY ON Boise State -4.5 over UNLV, Friday at 8 PM ET - We like the value with Boise in this game which is a home game for the Broncos. These 2 met in October and Boise was a 13 point favorite and won 56-31 and outgained the Rebels 558 to 476. The Broncos lost the turnover battle 2-1 and still won the game by 25 points. While we don’t expect a blowout here, laying just over a FG with the host is worth a strong look here. BSU didn’t play great down the stretch going 2-2 over their last 4 games, however they were without starting QB Madsen for those games and he is now back and at 100% from what we’re hearing. He is a 2.5 year starter for the Broncos and is comfortable with the spotlight as he led them to a 21-7 win over UNLV in last year MWC Championship game. His return is key for this offense as they were averaging 35 PPG with Madsen at the helm and that dropped to 29 PPG with him on the shelf. We feel that UNLV is overrated with their 10-2 record. They faced only 2 teams in conference play that ended the year with winning records and lost to both of those teams (Boise & New Mexico). The only team that beat all season that ended the year with a winning record was Miami Oh (7-5 record) and the Rebs needed to come from 14 points down in the 4th quarter to win that won by 3 points. Both teams are very good offensively but Boise State has a huge advantage on defense allowing 100 YPG and 1.0 YPP less than UNLV. The Broncos know what it takes to get to this game and win it. They’ve been in the MWC Championship game 7 of the last 8 seasons and won 4 of those, including the last 2 years (both over UNLV). This is old hat to this team. UNLV has lost the last 2 MWC Championship games to Boise but they have 70 new players on this year’s team that didn’t experience this game last season. The Broncos have dominated this series winning all 9 meetings (all by 5 points or more) by an average score of 40-19. They’ve also won 17 of their last 18 home games and they are 51-11 at home since the start of the 2016 season. We’ll lay the small number

#103 ASA PLAY ON Kennesaw State -2.5 over Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one opened with JSU as a slight favorite and flipped to KSU favored. We agree with the move and feel there is still value on Kennesaw State. These 2 just met here @ JSU on November 15th and Kennesaw was a 3.5 point favorite and lost 35-26. That was KSU’s only loss in their last 10 games and their only other 2 losses this year were @ Wake Forest (10-9 final score) and @ Indiana. The Owls outgained Jacksonville State in that loss (579 to 450) and had 14 more first downs but they also had 4 turnovers (0 for JSU). Not only did they have 4 turnovers, they were shut out on downs at the Gamecock 34 yard line and missed a FG. They didn’t punt in the game and 3 of their 4 turnovers most likely took points off the board with interceptions at the JSU 4 yards line, 23 yard line, and 23 yard line. While KSU’s 3 losses were all to high level teams, Jacksonville State loss to UCF, Georgia Southern, FIU, and Southern Miss. The Owls were the better team in CUSA play across the key stats while both finished 7-1 in league play. If we look at conference stats only, KSU finished higher in both offensive and defensive efficiency, had a better point differential, and had a better YPP differential. We’ll take Kennesaw State to win the CUSA Championship.

#102 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -3 over Dallas Cowboys, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re getting some nice value on the Lions here. They are favored by 3 points vs the Cowboys, which is the same number they were favored by vs Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. However the Packers rate 5th in the NFL per DVOA while the Cowboys are 16th. Based on that alone this line should be higher. Detroit has fallen out of the top 7 in the NFC and would not be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Even with that, they are still rated as the 4th best team in the NFL per DVOA behind only Seattle, LA Rams, and Indianapolis. We’re getting the Lions at home off a loss which has been money in the bank. They are 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS the game following their last 14 SU losses. In their 31-24 loss to GB on Thursday, the stats were nearly dead even across the board, with the difference in the game being 4th down conversions. The Packers were 3 for 3 on 4th down including 2 TD’s while Detroit was 0 for 2, both in GB territory taking potential points off the board. We expect a nice bounce back here from Detroit in a huge game before they go on the road for 3 of their last 4 games. Dallas has won 3 straight, 2 at home, but their road results haven’t been great. They have just 2 road wins this year @ NY Jets and @ Las Vegas, arguably the 2 worst teams in the NFL. When they’ve had to step up vs decent teams, the Boys lost by 4 @ Philly, by 17 @ Chicago, by 3 @ Carolina, and by 20 @ Denver. They have a negative YPG, YPP, and point differential away from home this season. We’ll lay the FG with the Lions.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Montana State -3 over St Thomas, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This is the Tommies 4th trip to the West Coast already this season in a 4 week span. They went to St Mary’s (California) then home, @ Washington State then back home, off to Portland for 3 games in 3 days then home, now off to Montana. Their 3 losses on the season all came on the West Coast. St Thomas is 6-3 on the season but they’ve faced the 266th strength of schedule and 2 of their 3 losses have come vs teams ranked 160th or lower. Montana State is 3-5 on the season but they are much better than their record. There is a reason the team with the much worse record is a full 3+ point favorite in this game. The Bobcats have faced one of the toughest schedules in the country (21st SOS) and 4 of their 5 losses have come vs teams currently ranked in the top 80 per KenPom and all on the road. For comparison, St Thomas has played only ONE game vs a team ranked in the top 150 and they lost that game by 26 points vs St Mary’s. The Bobcats have played only 2 home games this season and haven’t been at home since November 9th. The Bobcats most recent game on Saturday they faced the best team in the Mountain West, Utah State, on the road and took them to OT before losing by 3. That was an impressive loss, if there is such a thing, vs a Utah State team that is now 7-0 and 5 of their wins came by double digits. Despite their 3-5 record they have exceeded expectations in the market with a 5-1 ATS record. They are a good shooting team that ranks in the top 75 nationally in FG%, 3 point FG%, and scoring putting up 80 PPG. Montana State is in a must win spot here as their next 3 games are on the road. They catch St Thomas in a tough spot and we like the Bobcats to cover at home.

#680 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +2.5 over Louisville, Wednesday at 7:15 PM ET - Louisville is 7-0 on the season but they’ve played the 345th ranked strength of schedule (out of 365) per KenPom. They do have 2 decent wins beating Kentucky at home and Cincinnati on a neutral court. The Cards haven’t played a “true” road game this season although they did play Cincy in Cincinnati, just not on their home court. Arkansas is 5-2 on the season with their 2 losses coming @ 8-0 Michigan State by 3 points and vs Duke by 9 points in their most recent game last Thursday. In their game vs Duke the Razorbacks led with 6:00 remaining and trailed by just 6 with under 1:00 remaining in the game. Not a bad loss. Arkansas has now had a full week off and they are at home where they are very tough to beat with an 18-4 record since Rick Pitino took over at the start of last season. They’ve only been a home dog twice in Pitino’s tenure (1-1 ATS) covering vs Bama last year and missing a cover vs last year’s National Champion Florida losing that game by 8. Louisville relies heavily on a few things that don’t match up all that well with Arkansas. They shoot a lot of 3’s, get to the FT line frequently, and create turnovers defensively. The Razorbacks have been solid at defending the arc (allowing 30% shooting), don’t foul very often (only 19% of opponent’s points come from the charity stripe), and don’t turn the ball over (13th nationally offensive turnover percentage). If this one is close late let’s keep in mind that Arkansas shoots 80% as a team from the FT line. We’ll take the points as we give Arky a great shot at pulling this “upset”.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -7.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 7pm ET - We successfully backed the Spurs on Tuesday night but will fade them here. San Antonio played a 4-game road trip from Nov 23 - 30th, then were home last night against Memphis, and now travels to Orlando. The Magic have been at home and are coming off a win over the Bulls on Monday night 125-120. Orlando has won 6 straight home games with some impressive victories over the Knicks, Clippers and Warriors. Orlando is 8-3 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.5ppg. The Spurs are a respectable 5-4 SU on the road this season but again this schedule is going to have a negative impact on this team that is lacking depth at the moment with several starters out with injuries. The Spurs are 8-10 ATS their last 18 when playing without rest with an average loss margin of minus -5.2ppg. The Magic have won 4 straight in the series with three of those wins coming by double-digits. Lay it with Orlando.

#652 ASA PLAY ON Notre Dame +1.5 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Mizzou steps into this game with a perfect 8-0 record but they have played nobody. Their strength of schedule ranks 364th per KenPom (out of 365 teams) and they’ve played only 1 road game vs Howard (ranked 311th). That game was way back on November 3rd and since that they have played 7 straight home games. Their best win was over Minnesota who is currently 4-4 and ranked as the 17th best team in the Big 10. Subtract that game and the Tigers haven’t played a single team ranked inside the top 230 and they’ve faced 4 teams ranked outside the top 300. They travel tonight to take on a solid Notre Dame team that has played a much tougher schedule already facing 3 top 100 teams. The Irish have 3 losses coming @ Ohio State by 1 point, vs Houston on a neutral court by 10 points and vs Kansas on a neutral court by 10 points. Those 3 teams have a combined 19-4 record and all sit in the top 35 per KenPom with Houston and Kansas residing in the top 20. ND has played 4 home games this year and they are 4-0 in those contests and they have won 19 of their last 24 home tilts. They’ve had a week off since losing to Houston in Las Vegas last Wednesday. The Tigers have ridiculous shooting numbers to date hitting 55% of their shots on the season but they defenses they’ve faced have been a joke. The average defensive efficiency rating of the 8 teams they’ve faced is 278th and half the teams they’ve played (4) have a defensive efficiency rating of 330th or lower. Similar situation to last season when Mizzou started the season 13-3 but their 3 losses were their only neutral/road games they had played to that point. They finished last season with a 4-10 SU record in road/neutral games. Let’s take Notre Dame on Tuesday night.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -4.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 pm ET - We like the Spurs by double-digits in this one. Memphis is not in the best of schedule situation here playing their 4 straight road game and 5th of six away from home. In comparison they were just +6.5 at the Clippers who are not playing well and lost that game by 5-points. The Spurs will be happy to be home after a 4-game road trip with the most recent game being a loss in Minnesota. Prior to that game the Spurs had two solid road wins in Portland and in Denver. San Antonio does not have Wemby back yet, but did get Kornet and Harper back recently which strengthens their rotation. Memphis will have a tough time scoring here with the 28th ranked FG% at 44.3% going up against a Spurs D that allows the 9th lowest FG% against at 45.9%. San Antonio meanwhile is the 4th best shooting team at 49% versus a Grizz D that allows 47.6% (22nd). These two teams met on Nov 18th with the Spurs winning by 10-points as a 6-point chalk. We expect a similar result Tuesday night.

#483 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +7.5 over New England Patriots, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Jaxson Dart will be back at QB for the Giants here. NY is 2-10 on the season but they’ve been very competitive for the most part. They have solid wins over the Chargers and Eagles and tight, one score losses vs Lions, Packers, Broncos, Cowboys, and Bears. They are 4-1 ATS this season when tabbed a dog of 7 or more. Offensively they’ve been very solid since Dart took over averaging 25 PPG their last 7 along with ranking 2nd in the NFL in offensive EPA during that stretch. They’ve also converted almost 48% of their 3rd downs during that 7 game span which is tops in the NFL for that time period. They’ve actually led in the 4th quarter in half of their losses this season (5). The Pats sit at 10-2 but they’ve faced the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far while their opponent tonight, the Giants, have played the most difficult schedule. They’ve only been favored by a TD or more 3 times this season and they are 1-2 ATS in those games. 6 of their 10 wins have come by a TD or less. Despite their record, New England only ranks as the 17th best team in the NFL per DVOA, only 6 spots ahead of the GMen. The Pats overall defensive numbers are solid, however they rank just 27th defensive DVOA so they are overrated for sure on that side of the ball. Offensively the Patriots will be without 2 starting offensive lineman which isn’t great for a team that already has allowed 37 sacks this season (3rd most in the NFL). The Giants have a solid defensive front and should cause problems for the Pats who only average 3.9 YPC (27th in the NFL). Too many points here as we expect this one to be tight.

#878 ASA PLAY ON Middle Tennessee State +2.5 over UAB, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. We have MTSU as a slight home favorite and we’ll grab the value. MTSU has been through the gauntlet already this season playing the 19th most difficult schedule in the country yet they still have a record above 500 (4-3). Their losses have all come vs top 80 teams (Michigan, McNeese St, and George Washington) and they were all away from home (road and neutral). The Blue Raiders actually haven’t played at home since November 8th! They are in must win mode coming off 2 losses in a row and have a chance to make some hay with 4 straight home games. They’ve been off since last Tuesday so they will be rested and ready. This team was 22-12 a year ago and they bring back 4 of their top 8 players and a few key transfers. UAB, on the other hand, has NOBODY back from last year. Their starters and rotation players are all transfers and freshmen. The Blazers beat MTSU at home by 7 last year and they don’t have a single player on this year’s team that played in that game. UAB has played the much easier schedule (243rd SOS) and they’ve played only 1 true road game vs NC State and lost by 24. The Blazers can’t shoot from deep, ranking 335th (making only 26%) which is why only 20% of their points come from beyond the arc (354th nationally). They are facing an MTSU defense that allows just 27% shooting from beyond the arc so we expect the Blue Raiders, who shoot 35% from 3, to have a decided advantage in that key stat. The Raiders have won 19 of their last 23 home games and we’ll call for them to win this game as a dog.

#482 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +6.5 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Definite buy low, sell high spot here. The Broncos travel across the country with an 8 game winning streak in pocket. Meanwhile, the Commanders have lost 6 in a row. Despite that, this spread was 6.5 and had dropped to 5.5. The Broncos haven’t been dominant very often this season and they trailed in each of their last 8 games and turned them into wins (most of them close). They are the first team since 1980 that won 8 in a row despite trailing in each. Overall, their wins (and losses) for the most part have been close. In fact, of their 9 wins this season, 7 have been decided by 1 score and 6 by 4 points or less. Their road games have all been decided by 4 points or less and they’ve struggled to put away bad teams at times beating the Jets by 2, Titans by 8, Giants by 1, and Raiders by 3. It looks like Marcus Mariota will be starting at QB for Washington for the 6th time this season but other than that, this team is finally healthy. Head coach Dan Quinn has had nearly his full roster able to practice the last 2 weeks (coming off a bye) including WR’s McLaurin and Brown. Despite their record, the Broncos have been a mistake prone team as they lead the NFL in penalties and have a negative turnover differential. Tough to keep winning games in the NFL with that formula. We’ll call this one close as most of Denver’s games have been. Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET - The 76ers are beat up right now and aren’t a deep team to begin with. Atlanta is quietly 12-8 on the season with an 8-4 SU road record. The Hawks are the 5th best shooting team in the league at 48.9% with the 7th best 3PT%. The Sixers are 18th in team FG% at 46.4% and 11th in 3PT%. Defensively the Hawks are 13th in efficiency ratings, the 76ers are 19th. Embiid is out today for Philadelphia along with his backup Drummond. Edgecombe is doubtful, Oubre Jr out and Paul George is still not 100%. Atlanta has been playing without Trae Young for most of the season but Jalen Johnson is playing lights out in his absence. Porzigis missed the Hawks last game but could be back here. Atlanta has won 5 straight in this series and should be the favorite in this game.

#378 ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Steelers +3 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Buffalo Bills' offense had difficulty protecting QB Allen last Thursday against one of the league’s premier defensive fronts, allowing 8 sacks to the Texans. No matter how good Allen is, he can’t complete passes or run the football on his back. While the Pittsburgh Steelers no longer operate at that same elite level up front, they retain multiple capable pass rushers (TJ Watt – 7 sacks) who can still generate consistent pressure. Buffalo’s offensive line is facing considerable uncertainty heading into the weekend, with both starting tackles absent from early-week practices and left tackle Dion Dawkins currently in the concussion protocol. The Bills will be on the road for the second straight week and have lost 3 of their last 4 away from home. In fact, the Bills road woes are glaring as they average 15ppg away from home with Allen having the same number of INT’s as TD’s on the road. Pittsburgh’s offense has had some issues this season but have an opportunity to ‘get right’ against a Bills defense that ranks 23rd in yards per play allowed (5.7) and can’t stop the run (30th). With an established running game, QB Rodgers becomes much better utilizing play action. The Steelers do rank 11th in points per game and have eclipsed 23 points in seven of their last eight outings—a stretch that includes matchups against Minnesota, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Indianapolis, all of whom rank top 13 in yards per play defense. There are many home dog trends that support the Steelers here including a 11-5-1 ATS streak dating back to 2020 in that role.

#471 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -3 over New York Jets, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Falcons might be a better team with Kirk Cousins under center than Penix Jr in the current state of the team. We don’t think it matters who’s playing QB for the Jets (Taylor or Fields), they’re still bad. New York has 2 wins on the season and the 5th widest scoring differential of minus -6.5ppg. Even at home the Jets are losing by over a TD per game. Last week the Falcons got a much-needed win over the Saints after losing 5 straight (4 of which came against teams with .500 or above records). Atlanta averaged 5.7YPP in that game with solid balance in both aspects of the offense, rushing and passing. The Jets are coming off a 10-23 loss to the Ravens as the offense continues to struggle. New York is 29th in total yards per game gained, 28th in YPP (5.1) and average less than 20ppg. They will face an Atlanta defense that is above average in most key defensive metrics. Atlanta is still mathematically alive for the playoffs but essentially must win out. We will lay the short number with the Birds.

#442 ASA PLAY ON Hawaii -7.5 over Wyoming, Saturday at 11 PM ET - The Cowboys lost a heartbreaker at home last weekend which dropped them to 4-7 and out of bowl contention. They lost 13-7 as a 6.5 point home favorite to Nevada. The Wolfpack, who were 1-8 vs FBS teams entering the game, outgained Wyoming and dominated the ground game 213 yards rushing to 68. A Nevada fumble led to a 21 yard TD drive which was the Cowboys only points of the game. After the game, starting RB Sam Scott summed up the feeling in the locker room, “Devasted is the word”. We don’t think Wyoming will be able to make this long travel and “get up off the mat” so to speak for this now meaningless game. The offense is really struggling scoring a grand total of 17 points over their last 3 games, all losses. They’ve actually struggled all year ranking 118th in YPP (5.1) and 126th in scoring (17.8 PPG). They’ve even been worse on the road where they average just 12 PPG. They’ve scored just 3 TD’s in their last 13 quarters of football. They only topped 17 points 3 times this year in conference play and those were vs defenses ranked 109th, 124th, and 129th. Hawaii may not have to do much offensively to cover this number. The Rainbows will be plenty motivated here coming off their worst conference showing of the season losing @ UNLV 38-10. The defense has been very solid all year and will have a chip on their shoulder here after that performance which won’t be good for the Cowboys who are bad offensively. In their 6 home games this D has allowed just 292 YPG and 16 PPG. On offense, the Bows average 31 PPG at home and they are 5-1 on the island. In their most recent home game, they smoked the best team in the MWC, San Diego State, by a final score of 38-6. The Rainbows, with a 7-3 record, will be going to a bowl game for the first time since 2020. They’ve had an extra day to prepare (played last Friday and Wyoming played Saturday) and will want to go out on a high note on Senior Day before they play in their bowl game. The game is a sellout so the atmosphere for this home game should be good. Let’s lay it.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -3.5 vs. Detroit Pistons, 8:10pm ET - We absolutely love the Heat in this situation with a massive scheduling advantage over the Pistons. Detroit is coming off a huge game last night against Orlando and now travel to Miami for their 3rd game in four days. The Pistons played 4 straight road games, then went home for Orlando and are now back on the road to face the Heat who have been off for 2 days. Detroit had ripped off 13 straight wins but have now lost 2 straight. Detroit has the 7th best efficiency differential on the season in the NBA at 6.4. In the Pistons last 5 games their eDIFF has improved to +7.6. The Heat are quietly flying under the radar right now and are a serious contender in the Eastern Conference. Miami has won 5 straight games by an average +13.4ppg. In that 5-game stretch the Heat have an eDIFF of +12.6 and are +5.4 on the season. Detroit has some good road numbers but the Heat at home are 9-1 SU with an average /- of plus +6.9ppg. Miami will force tempo here and play fast and the weary Pistons will have a tough time keeping up. Lay it with Miami.

#716 ASA PLAY ON Southern Illinois -13.5 over Little Rock, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for SIU. The Salukis are a very good team, but their record doesn’t show that. They are 3-4 on the season with all of their losses coming away from home vs top 160 teams. They’ve been on the road since November 7th and played only 2 home games this season and came away with 2 easy wins. Their most recent 2 losses came away from home vs top 100 teams UAB (lost by 8) and Memphis (lost by 16). We were on Memphis in that game as it set up perfectly to take the Tigers. Today we like SIU back at home in a must win game. They’re facing Little Rock who will be playing their 6th consecutive road game. The Trojans are 1-4 in those 5 road games leading up to this one with their only win coming @ Ball State (ranked 298th) who is 1-4 vs D1 teams. 3 of their 4 losses during this stretch have come by at least 20 points. They turn the ball over at a ridiculous 26% rate (worst in CBB) and they aren’t a good rebounding team (outside the top 200 in offensive and defensive boards). SIU is top 70 in the nation in both offensive and defensive FG%. Little Rock is 175th in offensive FG% but their defense has been a sieve ranking 343rd in defensive FG% and 360th in 3 point FG% allowed. They’ve also allowed 89 points or more in 3 of their 5 games vs D1 opponents. The one thing the Trojans have done well is shoot the 3. They have hit 43% of their triples, which isn’t sustainable, and despite that they are 1-4 on the season (vs D1 opponents) and they’ve been blown out 3 times. If they don’t hit a high number of triples today this one could get ugly. We’ll lay it.

#438 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -13.5 over Oregon State, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - This is a revenger from a few weeks ago when Washington State traveled to Oregon State and lost 10-7 as a 3.5 point favorite. Wazzu dominated the stats (+100 yards) and outgained the Beavers by +1.5 YPP in that loss. The Cougars had 2 turnovers in the game (0 for OSU) and they were shutout on downs twice inside Beaver territory. Washington State bounced back from that loss with an easy 28-3 win the following week at home vs La Tech (we were on Wazzu in that one). They lost last week at James Madison, who is 10-1 and fighting for a potential playoff spot. However, the Cougars played very well in that game and led JMU 20-17 midway through the 4th quarter before falling 24-20 as a 14.5 point dog (JMU had a pick 6 so only 17 points scored offensively). With that loss, this game becomes ultra important as a win gets them to bowl eligible. This team is better than their record. They’ve played a tough schedule traveling to Ole Miss, Virginia, and James Madison and losing those games by a combined 9 points! Those teams currently have a combined record of 29-4 and Wazzu gave them all a run for their money and on the road none the less. At home the Cougs are 4-1 with their only loss coming vs Washington. They’ve beaten the top team in the MAC here handily (beat Toledo 28-7) and creamed the best team the Mountain West at home (beat San Diego State 36-13). While Washington State is fighting for a bowl game, the Beavers are just 1-9 vs FBS teams this year with their win coming vs Wazzu. They are also in the process of searching for a new coach (just named an Alabama assistant as their new head coach – this has been a distraction for both players and coaches). The Beavs are 0-4 on the road and their average score away from home is 36-14 while getting outgained 496 to 300 YPG. They’ll struggle here offensively vs a Washington State D that held them to 184 total yards a few weeks ago and OSU punted on 10 of their 12 possessions. The Cougs have held 6 of their 11 opponents to 13 points or less. WSU has been outstanding on defense holding James Madison to 24 points last week (they average 40 PPG), Toledo to 7 points (they average 32), Ole Miss to 24 points (they average 37) and UVA to 22 points (they average 34). The Cougars have been waiting for this rematch for a few weeks and they shouldn’t have to go crazy on offense to cover this game as we expect OSU to do next to nothing. We like Washington State to win this one easily.

#422 ASA PLAY ON BYU -17.5 over Central Florida, Saturday at 1 PM ET - The most recent Playoff committee rankings came in a few days ago and BYU sits at 13th just outside of the top 12 who make the playoffs. They need a big win with some style points added on in their home finale on Saturday. We think they’ll pick up an easy win in this one. They are coming off a double digit win @ Cincinnati in a game where they dominated the trenches outrushing the Bearcats 265 to 87. The BYU defense was on the field for only 61 snaps (and only 57 the week before vs TCU) so they should be fresh here. BYU is 5-0 at home with 4 wins coming by at least 14 points. The only team that didn’t roll over at home was Utah as they topped the rival Utes by 3. Their most recent home game was an absolute blasting of a good TCU team 44-13 outgaining the Horned Frogs 447 to 298. They are taking on a simply not very good UCF team that had lost 6 of their previous 7 before getting a tight 3 point home win vs a bad Oklahoma State team (1-10 record) last week. The Knights never led in that game until under 1:00 minute remaining in the game. UCF has been a terrible road team this year and this is a long travel game for them. They are 0-4 away from home this year and in those games they’ve scored 3, 9, 11, and 20 points. They are averaging just 4.6 YPP on the road compared to 5.8 YPP at home. UCF has gotten rolled by an average score of 33-11 away from home while BYU is winning by an average score of 40-12 at home. This one will get ugly and BYU won’t let up as they need to take advantage of every statement they can make to the Playoff committee.

#392 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State -17 over Colorado, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Big final home game for KSU as they need a win to become bowl eligible. They’re playing a Colorado team that looks like they’ve tanked it on the year losing 6 of their last 7 with 3 of their last 4 losses coming by 25+ points. Last week the Buffs played their final home game and got rolled 42-17 by an Arizona State team that has been playing without their starting QB and best offensive player Leavitt. The Devils didn’t even really need a QB in last week’s win as they rushed for 355 yards 8 YPC. It wasn’t a one off as CU ranks 135th (out of 136 teams) stopping the run. They’ve been dominated in the trenches week in and week out. That’s a problem here. That’s because KSU loves to run the ball and put up a whopping 472 yards on the ground on 11.2 YPC last week vs a very good Utah team. The Cats outplayed the 9-2 Utes on the road, which very few teams do, leading by 12 in the 4th quarter before losing by 4. That loss makes this game very important for Kansas State. The Buffs offense can’t run (120th in rushing) so they rely on the pass. They will be sitting freshman QB Lewis here, who has started the last 2 games, to preserve his redshirt. Opposing QB’s have completed just 57% vs this KSU defense and we’re expecting cold and windy conditions in Manhattan KS on Saturday which would be bad news for an already shaky CU offense that can’t run. The Cats should easily control the trenches here on both sides of the ball and wear out a Colorado team that might not put up much of a fight. We’ll lay it and watch KSU dominate this game.

ASAwins NBA play on NY Knicks -8 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40pm ET - The Bucks have lost 6-straight games and it’s not going to matter if Giannis is back or not for this one. Giannis is questionable tonight against the Knicks and I’m guessing he returns but it won’t be enough to cover against this Knicks team. These two teams met earlier this season in Milwaukee with the Bucks being a +2-point home dog. Milwaukee won that game by 10-points and this time around it will be the home team Knicks by double-digits. The Bucks lost most recently to the Heat by 3-points but prior to that their 5 losses were all by 10+ points. The Knicks are coming off a successful 3-2 road trip and have won 7 of their last ten overall. New York is 8-1 SU at home this season with the 3rd best average point differential of +12.3ppg. On that note, the Bucks are 3-5 SU away with an average differential of minus -6.2ppg. This is a massive game for the Cup standings as the winner has a chance to move on. These teams aren’t as close as this number indicates as the Knicks have the 5th best efficiency differential in the NBA at +6.6 compared to the Bucks at -2.8. Revenge, health, venue, Cup…it all adds up to a big home win for New York.

#329 ASA PLAY ON Georgia -14 over Georgia Tech, Friday at 3:30 PM ET @ Mercedes Benz Stadium - Georgia Tech received 10 million dollars to move this game from their home stadium (Bobby Dodd) to the Mercedes Benz Dome here in Atlanta. That venue has become a “second home” for the Bulldogs even though Tech is located in Atlanta. The Dogs have played at least 1 game at this stadium every year since 2017. UGA is 4-0 at Mercedes Benz Stadium vs non SEC foes in Kirby Smart’s time here. Smart’s team has quietly been playing as well as any team in the country down the stretch. They have won 7 straight since losing by 3 points vs Alabama with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. They’ve also covered 5 of their last 6 games. The offense has posted at least 35 points in 5 of their last 7 and should have a field day vs a really bad Georgia Tech stop unit who has allowed 48, 34, and 42 points the last 3 weeks vs NC State, BC, and Pitt. Those teams are obviously nowhere near the level of this UGA team. Tech actually lost 2 of those games vs NC State and Pitt (both by double digits) while beating a terrible BC team by 2 points. The Jackets were in must win mode at home last week vs Pitt and lost 42-28. A win would have put them in the ACC Championship game and they got smoked (down 28-0 out of the gate). They now have no chance to make the title game. The Jackets lean on their running game but they are facing a UGA defense that has shut opposing teams rushing attacks down (5th nationally allowing 92 YPG on the ground). While Tech’s defense is really bad, their offense does have great numbers, however they’ve faced a very weak slate of defenses including stop units ranked 110th or lower in 4 of their last 5 games. Different story here with an athletic UGA D in the top 20. The Bulldogs have incentive to pour it on if they can to improve their potential playoff seed as well. Let’s lay it.

#609 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma -2 over Marquette, Friday at 2 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Chicago. Marquette is a young team with 4 underclassmen in their top 7 and still trying to figure things out. They are 4-3 on the year despite playing all home games and 1 neutral site game. While other teams are grabbing experienced players in the portal to fill spots, Marquette coach Shaka Smart doesn’t really use the portal. He builds with his young players which is fine, but when they lose their 3 leading scorers from last season (combined to average almost 45 PPG) and replace them with inexperienced players, it can be tough sledding early in the season. Oklahoma has a number of transfers but they are all experienced players who play big roles on their previous teams. The start 4 upperclassmen and their rotation is mainly seniors and juniors. They have 2 losses this season @ Gonzaga, which was to be expected, and vs Nebraska on a neutral court here in Chicago. The Huskers have proven to be very solid early in the season (7-0 record) and Oklahoma blew a 16 point lead in that game. The Golden Eagles thrive on creating turnovers for extra possessions (41st defensive turnover rate) and getting to the FT line (top 100 in percentage of points from the FT line). That doesn’t match well vs this Sooner team who has a very experienced backcourt and doesn’t turn the ball over (13th in offensive turnover rate). They also don’t foul with opponents scoring only 14% of their points from the charity stripe (11th best in the country). Oklahoma is the better shooting team across the board overall FG%, 3 point FG% and FT%. We’ll lay the small number here as we expect the Sooners to win this one by a solid margin.

#318 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +7 over Ole Miss, Friday at 12 PM ET - MSU has been undervalued all season as this team has been very competitive for the most part. Their spread record is 8-3 overall and 5-1 ATS at home with their only non-cover here coming vs Georgia. The Bulldogs would like nothing better than to ruin, or at least put into question, the Rebels shot at the CF Playoffs with an upset here. Not only that, they have the motivation of a 6 win season and a bowl game if they pull off this home win. Ole Miss, while trying to make it to the playoffs, have some serious distractions with head coach Lane Kiffin courting a number of different offers with LSU and Florida being at the forefront. In fact, Kiffin is the odds on favorite to end up in Baton Rouge with -200 posted at most sportsbooks. If he does take that job, he more than likely won’t even be around to coach Ole Miss in the playoffs if they make it. Weird situation. The Rebs have only played 3 road games this season and they are 1-2 ATS in those games with all decided by a single score. Last season Ole Miss was the host in the Egg Bowl and won by 12 but never led by more than 6 until their final TD in the fourth quarter. The YPP stats in that game were dead even (both averaged 5.3 YPP) but MSU had 3 turnovers (0 for Mississippi). Prior to last year’s game decided by 12 points, the previous 5 meetings were all decided by 10 points or less. The Bulldogs have taken some of the SEC’s elite to the wire here at home as they led Texas by 17 in the 4th quarter (lost in OT) and led Tennessee by 7 with under 2:00 remaining in the game (lost in OT). We’ll call for this one to go to the wire and take the points.

ASAwins NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 8pm ET - The Pelicans are one of the 4 worst teams in the NBA with an eDIFF (efficiency differential) of minus -12.9 on the season. Memphis has an eDIFF of 4.3 on the year. A closer look at each team's last five games and we see the Pels aren’t getting any better with an eDIFF of -12.5 compared to the Grizz in their last 5 games at -1.7. Memphis has won 2 of their last 3 games with the lone loss coming to the Nuggets. New Orleans is coming off a win over the Bulls, their first win in 10 games. These teams are similar offensively but the Grizzlies hold a decisive advantage on the defensive end of the court with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.150-points per possession allowed versus the Pels who are 29th in the league at 1.226PPP. Memphis has won 5 straight in the series dating back to the start of last season and we like them to extend the streak here.

#744 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana Tech -2.5 over Indiana State, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - Weird spot here as these 2 non-conference foes just faced off a week ago @ Indiana State. The Sycamores won that game 60-51 as 3.5 point favorites. Just based on that line 1 week ago, La Tech should be favored by at least 3.5 here. In that loss, LT shot 29% from the field, 12% from beyond the arc (2 of 16) and only made 11 of their 20 FT attempts. Even with that horrible shooting effort, it was a 5-point game with under 1:00 minute left. That’s because LT dominated the boards pulling down nearly 30% of their misses which led to 6 more shot attempts and 10 more FT attempts in that loss. If the Bulldogs do anything but shoot terrible in that game they could have picked up a big road win. Indiana State didn’t light the world on fire either (33%) but they made 9 more triples (+27 points from 3) and the game still was fairly tight. We expect ISU to have problems again offensively here vs a La Tech defense that ranks 2nd in the nation allowing opponents to shoot just 32% from the field while allowing only 55 PPG. The Sycamores are 1-2 on the road this season with their only win coming @ SIU Edwardsville. They have shot under 40% this year on the road and jot only 26% from deep. La Tech is coming off back to back 20 win seasons and they’ve been tough at home going 27-6 SU since the start of the 2023 season. Meanwhile, ISU is off a 14-18 year and their head coach, Matthew Graves, has never had a winning season in his 6 years as a head coach (South Alabama and ISU). LT has had a full week to stew over last Wednesday’s loss @ ISU and we like them to win this game at home and cover this short number.

ASAwins NBA play on LA Lakers -5.5 vs. LA Clippers, 11 pm ET - We are going to fade the Clippers here after a grueling 6-game road trip that started in Dallas on Nov 14th and ended in Cleveland on the 23rd. The Lakers also have LeBron back in the lineup after missing the first few weeks of the season. The Lakers are the better team right now with an efficiency differential of +2.6 compared to the Clippers at -5.5. The Lakers are 15th in offensive efficiency at 1.172-points per possession, the Clippers rank 21st at 1.144PPP. The gap defensively is even greater with the Lakers 15th in dEFF versus the Clippers who rank 24th. The Lakers have shot the ball extremely well this season at 50.6% (2nd) while the Clippers are average at 47%. The Clippers are 2-7 SU on the road this season, the Lakers 4-2 SU at home. The Lakers won 3 of four last season against this Clippers team and this year’s version of the Lakers is better and the Clippers are worse.

#662 ASA PLAY ON Notre Dame -6.5 over Rutgers, Tuesday at 1 PM ET - This game is on a neutral court in Las Vegas. Both teams lost on Monday here with Notre Dame getting knocked off by Kansas (lost by 10) and Rutgers losing to Tennessee by 35 points. The Irish, a top 100 three point shooting team, hit only 16% vs Kansas (11th nationally defending the arc) which was the difference in that game. ND is hitting 36% of their triples this season and now facing a Rutgers defense that ranks 300th defending the arc. We expect the Irish to shoot much better on Tuesday. Rutgers is rated as the worst team in the Big 10 per KenPom and by a fairly wide margin. They rank 131st nationally and the next worst team in the conference is 104th (Minnesota). The Scarlet Knights have faced one of the easiest schedules in the country (351st SOS) and yet they still have 2 losses including a home setback at the hands of Central Connecticut. All of their wins have come vs teams ranked 285th or lower and many of those wins were much tighter than anticipated. That’s why Rutgers is just 1-5 ATS this season. They were creamed on the boards yesterday vs Tennessee (-15 rebounds) and we expect Notre Dame to control the glass here. The Irish are inside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency while Rutgers is outside the top 100 in both. These 2 met here in Vegas last season and Rutgers escaped with a 1 point OT win. The Knights had 2 top 5 NBA 1st round draft picks on that team (Harper & Bailey) and the only 2 players back for Rutgers that played in that game combined for 0 points in 15 minutes of play. Notre Dame, on the other hand, return 3 starters from that game and 4 of their top 6 in minutes played. We like the Irish to get their payback and cover this game in Vegas.

#306526 ASA PLAY ON McNeese State -1 over Murray State, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in the Cayman Islands. Both of these teams played yesterday as well with McNeese topping a very good George Washington team (62nd in KenPom ratings) by 6 points while Murray State lost by 3 vs Middle Tennessee State (142nd per KenPom). The Racers are still adjusting to a new head coach and they don’t have a single key player back from last season. All 5 starters and their top reserves are either transfers or freshmen. They are 4-2 on the season but all 4 wins have come vs teams ranked 230 or lower per KenPom. Murray State’s strength of schedule to date is 304th. In their loss vs Middle Tennessee State last night actually made 10 more FT’s and 1 more 3 pointer so they were +13 points from FT and 3 yet still lost the game. McNeese, on the other hand, has already faced a top 70 strength of schedule and they sit with a 4-1 record. Their lone loss was @ Santa Clara who is 6-0 on the season. McNeese was 27-6 last season and upset Clemson in the NCAA tourney before losing by 12 to Purdue. They return 4 of their top 7 players so much more continuity for this team early in the season. They do have a new head coach Bill Armstrong who took over for Will Wade (went to NC State) but Armstrong has coached under Wade (at LSU) so the system is similar. Despite playing the tougher schedule, the Cowboys have the better stats across the board ranking 4th nationally in shooting percentage (Murray State ranks 63rd) and 22nd in defensive FG% allowed (Murray ranks 211th). McNeese also shoots 80% from the FT line and they are 3rd nationally in defensive turnover rate (27%). We’ll lay this small number with McNeese State.

#685 ASA PLAY ON Utah State -7.5 over Davidson, Sunday at 9 PM ET - Utah State is currently rated as the best team in the Mountain West and 39th in the country per KenPom. That’s nearly 30 spots higher than last year’s team that went 26-8 and made the NCAA tourney. The Aggies have a number of key players back from that team including 4 of their top 6 players. They are 5-0 on the season with all double digit wins with the exception of their 3 point win over a very good VCU team. How good was that win? The only other loss VCU has this season was @ NC State (ranked 19th per KenPom) by just 6 points in a game where the Wolfpack made 15 more FT’s. Davidson is also 5-0 but they have yet to face a top 100 team. They are coming off a win here in Charleston on Friday over Boston College. BC shot only 14% from 3 in that game, made only 57% of their FT’s and turned the ball over on 24% of their possessions. The Wildcats lost most the key players off their 2024 roster returning only 1 starter (4 new starters are all transfers) and a few lightly used reserves. They are due for big time regression from 3 point land both offensively and defensively. They currently have made 42% of their 3’s (14th in the country) on the season while limiting opponents to 23% (7th) from beyond the arc. The Cats are facing a USU offense here that ranks 13th in FG% and is averaging 88 PPG. The Aggies should control the boards vs Davidson, who is a poor rebounding team and USU creates turnovers at almost a 22% rate. Not great for a Davidson offense that ranks 248th in offensive turnover percentage. We like USU by double digits.

ASAwins NBA play on LA Lakers -9.5 at Utah Jazz, 8pm ET - I hate to be a ‘square’ today but even they win at times so give us a ticket on the Lakers -9.5 at Utah. We are betting a premium price here but the rest trends outweigh the number. The Lakers fall into a 61-24 ATS trend as they have been off since November 18th against this same Jazz team. The Lakers won the most recent meeting by 14-points and have won 5 of the last six against the Jazz. We know L.A. should get plenty of good looks in this game and will knock down shots with their #1 rated team FG% at 51.1%. The reason we know this is because the Jazz are 26th in FG% defense allowing 48.9%. Utah will have a tough time scoring with an offense that ranks 21st in oEFF scoring 1.149-points per possession, going up against a Lakers D that is 9th in dEFF. The Lakers should also have an easier time covering double-digits against a Jazz team that has allowed 140 or more points in 3 straight and 132 or more in four in a row. With 3+ days rest we like the Lakers big in this one.

#260 ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints -1.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The betting markets indicate that the Saints are the play in this NFC South showdown. The tickets are on the Falcons, the money is on the Saints. The Falcons are in a tough scheduling situation here as they played two weeks ago and went into OT only to lose to the Colts. Last week they were home against the Panthers and lost again…in overtime and the defense has played 179 snaps in the last two games. That’s not ideal when they’ve played 6 straight weeks (1-5 SU). Atlanta lost starting QB Penix to a knee injury and will also be without, arguably, the best WR in the NFL this season, Drake London. Sure, Kirk Cousins is an experienced quarterback, but he didn’t play well in his start against the Dolphins (lost and produced just 10-points) 21/31 for 173 passing yards. As for the Saints, they are coming off a bye week and should be well prepared here. The change at QB for the Saints has been an upgrade with Tyler Shough coming off a solid game against the Panthers two weeks ago in a 17-7 road win. Shough was 19/27 for 282 yards, 2 TD’s and a 128 passer rating. New Orleans just 1-5 SU in their last six games but all four losses came against teams leading their division with a combined 30-11 SU record. We like the Saints to win this by more than a FG.

#256 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals +3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Jags are vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are 6-4 on the season yet their point differential is only +14 which is 13th in the NFL. Their stats aren’t great and actually fairly comparable to this 3-7 Arizona team. The Jags are +3 YPG and -0.2 YPP on the season. The Cards are +0 YPG and -0.1 YPP on the year. The Cards have played a very tough schedule and they’ve been competitive for the most part with 5 of their 7 losses coming by 4 points or less. 6 of their last 8 games have come against San Francisco (twice), Seattle (twice), Green Bay, Indianapolis, and Dallas. We’re getting some line value here because Arizona is off back to back blowouts @ Seattle and last week here vs the Niners. Their loss to SF last Sunday we very deceiving as they lost by 19 points, yet outgained the Niners by over 200 yards and by +1.5 YPP. Their other 4 home games were all decided by 5 points or less. The Arizona offense has been much better since veteran Jacoby Brissett took over at QB. He already had over 1,500 yards passing (in 5 starts) and they are averaging 24 PPG (20 PPG prior to Brissett taking over). Since he took over they have outgained 4 of their 5 opponents including Indy, Green Bay, San Fran, and Dallas. Can’t trust Jacksonville laying points on the road. They are 2-2 away from home with losses @ Cincinnati and @ Houston and wins @ San Francisco by 5 (Jax had punt return for TD) and @ Las Vegas by 1. They were outgained on a YPP basis in 3 of their 4 road games. The Jags are coming off a blowout home win over the Chargers (also giving up some value here) and they have 2 division games on deck so a possible flat spot. Jacksonville was favored by only 1 point @ Las Vegas just a few weeks ago (won in OT) and now favored by a full FG @ Arizona who is better than the Raiders (Arizona 21st overall DVOA and Las Vegas 29th). This has upset written all over it.

#254 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -3 over Indianapolis Colts, Sunday a 1 PM ET - This is a gigantic home game for KC. A must win spot as they sit at 5-5. Much more important game for the Chiefs compared to Indy who has a 2 game lead in the weak AFC South. The Chiefs are coming off back to back road losses @ Buffalo and @ Denver. Mahomes has NEVER lost 3 games in a row in his career. KC has been much better offensively at home where they average 28 PPG (22 PPG on the road) and 380 YPG (349 YPG on the road). KC is averaging 3.11 points per possession at home which is 2nd in the NFL compared to 2.31 on the road (12th). They have better offensive AND defensive numbers this year with a 5-5 record compared to last season when they went 15-2. Crazy stat…KC currently has a +73 point differential with a 5-5 record and last year they had a +59 point differential with a 15-2 record! This team is better than their record. We’re not sure how good Indy is? There are very solid, however 6 of their 8 wins have come against the Titans (twice), Raiders, Dolphins, Cardinals, and Falcons who are all at least 3 games below .500 and have 13 total wins between them. The Colts are 2-2 vs teams that are currently .500 or better with wins over the Chargers and Broncos with losses vs the Steelers and Rams. We think there’s line value as well with KC at home as they were just favored by 2.5 @ Buffalo and by 4.5 @ Denver and now laying only a FG at home. Since 1990, there have been 14 times where a team with a 5-5 record or worse is favored over a team with an .800 or better record. Those favorites are 12-0-2 ATS. Let’s take KC in a must win spot at home.

#178 ASA PLAY ON San Diego State -11.5 over San Jose State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - San Diego State sits at 5-1 and in 1st place in the Mountain West after topping Boise State by 10 points here last week. They are fighting for a spot in the MWC Championship game while San Jose State is now just playing out the string in a disappointing season. The Spartans loss last week @ Nevada dropped them to 3-7 and out of bowl contention. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week we could see this SJSU team being flat. Not only did the Spartans lose @ Nevada last week as a 9-point favorite, they were destroyed 55-10 which tells us this team might be done. Nevada’s offense has been terrible this year not topping 22 points in a single game until posting 55 last week on 413 total yards. To put that in perspective, the Wolfpack entered last week’s game vs San Jose State averaging 273 years (132nd nationally) and 13 PPG (133rd). The Spartans actually canned their defensive coordinator after the game after they have allowed at least 28 points in 8 of their last 9 games. Offensively, they’ve scored 16 and 10 points the last 2 weeks vs Air Force (128th in total D) and Nevada (63rd in total D). Now they face a San Diego State defense that ranks 7th nationally in total defense, 5th in YPP allowed, and 7th in pass D which matches up perfectly vs this SJSU offense. The Spartans can’t run the ball (112th in rushing) but love to fling it around which will be tough vs this defense. The Aztecs are the much more buttoned up team with fewer turnover, fewer penalties, and they have a LOT more to play for in their home finale. They are a perfect 5-0 at home with all wins coming by double digits. San Jose is 0-5 on the road this year. San Diego State rolls.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -8.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET - The Hawks have lost two straight and will look to bounce back in New Orleans against one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Pelicans have the 2nd worst overall efficiency differential at minus -13.3, only ahead of the Wizards. New Orleans has the 5th worst offensive efficiency at 1.101PPP and the 29th defensive efficiency allowing 1.243PPP. In comparison the Hawks are 14th in dEFF, 13th in oEFF. Atlanta lost at San Antonio on Thursday but had won 4 straight on the road in their most recent road trip. Two of those road wins were against similar teams to the Pels (Kings, Jazz) and both of those wins games by double-digits. Going into Friday night the Pelicans had lost 7 straight games 5 of which were at home, and all 5 came by more than this spread. New Orleans is 1-7 SU at home with a negative average point differential of minus -12ppg. Atlanta 7-3 SU on the road this season and also benefit from a scheduling advantage as the Pels played Friday night.

#142 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -2.5 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 7 PM ET - The Panthers are coming off a huge game last week, a home loss to Notre Dame 15-37. Pittsburgh has some inflated defensive numbers based off a soft schedule and last week the Irish exposed them for what they are. The Panthers had a top ranked defense against the run, then ND pounded them for 175 yards at 4.9 yards per carry. The Pitt offense managed just 219 total yards and 3.4 YPP. Georgia Tech is off a wake up 36-34 win at BC last week as a -16.5-point favorite. Granted, GT has faced that same soft schedule but have the vastly superior offensive statistics and the best player on the field in QB Haynes King. The Yellowjackets average nearly 500-total yards per game offensively (2nd most in the country) and rank 1st in nation in YPP at 7.5, 11th in rushing and 28th in passing. The Panthers offense is average at best and really struggles to run the football ranking 113th in rushing YPG, 117th in rushing YPC. We are not sure they can exploit a Tech D that allows 6.0 YPP. The line on this game is what sealed the deal for us, especially when you run the comparative spreads versus common opponents this season. Pitt is 2-9 ATS their last eleven on the road. Tech 5-0 SU at home this season with an average MOV of +16.0 PPG. Lay it with the Yellowjackets.

#306580 ASA PLAY ON Lipscomb -4.5 over Western Carolina, Saturday at 5 PM ET - Lipscomb is 1-4 on the season and all of their losses have come on the road. They’ve played a tough schedule (65th strength of schedule) but after a few rough games to start the season they’ve been competitive the last 3 with 1 win and 2 close losses on the road (both covers). This is a solid program with 3 straight 20 win seasons including 25-10 a year ago. They’ve been fantastic at home with a 41-6 record over their last 47 here at Allen Arena. Western Carolina has won 3 straight (all at home) but they have been at home for 2 weeks and this will be their first road game since early November. They are 0-2 on the road this season and have lost 15 of their last 16 road games dating back to the start of last season. This program, unlike Lipscomb, hasn’t been overly successful with just one 20 win season since 2015 and they were 8-22 last year. If we look at straight stats neither team has been good this year. Lipscomb does have a few advantages, however besides being at home. They are the much better FT shooting team (87% to 69%) and they’ve been decent at creating turnovers at an 18% rate facing Western Carolina who turns it over at a 21% rate (307th). We’ll take the better program in basically a must win game at home.

#117 ASA PLAY ON Hawaii +3 over UNLV, Friday at 10:30 PM ET - Nice spot for a very good Hawaii team coming off a bye week. Prior to their bye week, the Rainbows pasted the best team in the MWC, San Diego State, by a final score of 38-6! That’s an Aztec team that is 5-1 and in first place in the league. That win gave this undervalued Hawaii team 5 outright wins this season as an underdog. While we think Hawaii is undervalued, we think UNLV is overvalued. They are not as good as their 8-2 record. They haven’t won a home game this season by more than 7 points and at home in MWC play they beat a 3-7 Air Force team by 3, lost here vs New Mexico, and last weekend struggled with an average Utah State team finally winning by 3. While UNLV has a slight edge offensively (although both average over 400 YPG), Hawaii’s defense is light years better than UNLV giving up a full 100 YPG less and 1.0 YPP less. The Rainbow passing attack is one of the best in the country averaging 302 YPG (9th in the country) and should have a field day vs a Rebel D that allows 264 YPG (120th in the nation). UNLV has covered just 1 of their last 5 games and we like the defensive dog to get things done here. Take the points.

ASAwins play on Phoenix Suns +3.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 9pm ET - I’m not so sure the T’Wolves should be favored on this court against the Suns.When you compare efficiency differentials the Suns are +5.3, the Wolves are +6.5 but Phoenix has faced a tougher schedule. On that note, both teams are 8-2 SU in their last ten games. In the Wolves 8 wins in that 10-game stretch - not one is against a team with a winning record. Phoenix hasn’t faced a tough schedule either but they do have a win over the Spurs in their last 10 and are coming off a win in Portland most recently. The Suns have an edge with their 7th best 3PT% going up against a T’Wolves defense that is 14th in defending the 3PT line. We also like the Suns advantage on the offense glass with the 9th best rebound % compared to the Timberwolves 15th ranked REB%. Phoenix is 6-2 on their home court with the 5th best scoring differential of +13.3ppg. Minnesota is 3-3 ATS as a road chalk this season. Take the home dog here.

#815 ASA PLAY ON Oakland -1.5 over Eastern Michigan, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Huge disparity in strength of schedule in this game. Oakland has played the #1 rated SOS this year having already faced 4 top 80 teams, including 3 top 15 teams (Houston, Purdue, and Michigan) all on the road. The 4 D1 teams they’ve played this season have a 19-1 combined record. They took UCF to the wire on the road on Monday before losing by 4 points. They gave Purdue all they could handle in West Lafayette before losing by 10. Oakland’s offense has actually been quite good despite facing 4 high level defensive teams. They’ve scored at least 77 points in every game but one and that was vs Houston who is the #1 defensive team in the country (efficiency). They’ve shot it well from 3 (35.2%) and they turn the ball over only 15% of the time (85th). They also make nearly 80% of their FT’s which could be key in a tight game. While the Grizzlies have been on the road a lot, they haven’t played since Monday and their trip to EMU is only an hour bus ride. EMU’s strength of schedule sits outside the top 300. All of their wins (2) have come vs teams that rank 300 or lower and they actually lost at home vs IU Indy who ranks 330th. Their 1 games vs a team with a pulse, they lost by double digits vs Pitt. Despite facing one of the easiest schedules on the country, the Eagles have been a poor shooting team ranking 289th in eFG% and making only 30% of their triples. That’s despite half of their opponents ranking outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency. Oakland doesn’t have great defensive numbers which is to be expected going up against the teams they’ve faced. They’re much better than their record and better than their overall stats might indicate. This is also a revenger for Oakland after losing by 4 a year ago vs EMU. The Griz shot only 17% from 3 in that game (3 of 18) which was the difference. We like Oakland to get this win and cover.

#744 ASA PLAY ON USC -18.5 over Troy, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Horrible spot here for Troy. They are playing their 4th game in 8 days, all on the west coast. They played Friday @ Loyola Marymount (lost by 11), Sunday @ CSUN (lost by 9), Tuesday @ San Diego State (won by 1 in double OT) and now Thursday @ USC. Not only is that a brutal stretch, their most recent game @ San Diego State Tuesday was a double OT game. Troy doesn’t use their bench often (363rd in bench minutes) so their starters have to be physically and mentally cashed and looking forward to getting home after leaving last Thursday. USC has been off since Friday and they’ve played all home games to date winning by 31, 30, and 20 points. They are in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’ve been great on the offensive glass pulling down over 40% of their misses (22nd nationally) and they should cream Troy in that regard as they have tired legs and are ranked 312th in defensive rebounding. Troy relies heavily on the 3 point shot which could be tough with tired legs and facing a tough USC D that limits their opponents to 25% from deep thus far this season. USC is a fast paced team, averaging 98 PPG, that could run this Troy team into the ground. Let’s lay it.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans +6 over Buffalo Bills, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Houston is still in desperation mode as they try to get back into the playoffs. They lost their first 3 games but have gone 5-2 since to get back to .500. Their 2 losses during that stretch were by 3 points vs Denver and by 8 points @ Seattle, 2 of the top teams in the NFL and both 1 possession games. To compare lines of those 2 top tier teams, the Texans were +3 @ Seattle and favored by 2.5 vs Denver. Now they are getting nearly a full TD at home vs the Bills? We understand they will be without starting QB Stroud again this week which may move the number a bit, however his back up Davis Mills is one of the better back up QB’s in the league. He’s already led Houston to back to back wins in Stroud’s absence. The Bills are coming off a big home win over Tampa Bay (44-32 final) but they’ve been a bit shaky on the road going 2-2 with losses as a favorite @ Atlanta and @ Miami. They scored only 27 total points in those 2 losses and now they face the top D in the NFL allowing just 258 YPG. Houston’s stop unit ranks in the top 5 in scoring, total defense, rush D, and pass D. They rank #1 in overall defensive EPA and they’ve allowed more than 20 points only twice all season. Huge defensive edge to Houston here which we always like when those teams are home dogs. If we look at overall DVOA (NFL Metric), Buffalo is rated as the 9th best team in the NFL and Houston is 10th. Too many points here.

ASAwins NBA play on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - Memphis is in a scoring drought averaging 106.5ppg over their last ten games. That’s about to change on Thursday night when they face the Kings. The Grizz have faced a brutal stretch of games with 8 of their last ten games coming against some of the league’s best teams. Now they face one of the worst with the Kings ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.233-points per possession.Sacramento is 30th in opponents FG%, 30th in opponents FG’s made, 22nd in 3PT% allowed and give up an average of 124.4ppg (30th). Memphis should get a significant bump in scoring facing this defense that has allowed 122 or more points in 9 of their last ten and 130 or more in 5 of those. The Grizz battled the Spurs late into the game on Tuesday night before falling by double-digits. Scheduling also favors Memphis here with the Kings coming off a game last night in Oklahoma City. Sacto is 4-14 ATS their last 18 when playing the 2nd night of a back to back. The Kings are 1-7 SU on the road this season with a negative average point differential of minus -8.5ppg. Don’t be fooled by the Grizzlies 3-5 SU home record as the losses have come to: OKC, Houston, Detroit, Lakers and Heat who have a combined 58-16 SU record. The home team won all three meetings a year ago and we expect that trend to continue here. Lay it!

ASAwins NBA play on: Miami Heat -6.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 7:40pm ET - The Warriors are in a tough scheduling situation here which is why this line is as high as it is in Miami’s favor. Golden State played last night with the “big 3” (Green, Butler, Curry) all logging 31+ minutes. This is the Warriors 6th game in nine days, 3rd in four days and the second of a B2B so don’t be surprised if several players are rested tonight. Golden State has an overall average point differential of minus -5.8ppg on the season with a below average offensive efficiency rating (23rd) and slightly better than average dEFF (11th). Miami has been a big surprise this season and have played at the fastest pace in the league. They are 6-1 SU at home with a +6.8ppg average +/-. The Heat are about league average in both oEFF and dEFF but simply out score opponents with volume. Miami is the 8th best shooting team at 48.8%, 4th in 3PT% at 38.5%. They should get plenty of open looks against a fatigued Warriors team that ranks 20th in opponents FG% and 15th in 3PT% allowed. Miami has the 3rd best FG% and 3PT% defense in the NBA which will limit Golden State on the offensive end. Don’t be intimidated by the spread on this game which looks unusually high, but they made it this for a reason. Bet Miami.

ASAwins NBA play on: San Antonio Spurs -5.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Injuries to both teams will dominate the headlines but the Spurs are the deeper team and can overcome the absence of Wembanyama. Memphis will be without Ja Morant so expect rookie Cedric Coward to fill his minutes. San Antonio is 6-2 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +7.5ppg. The Spurs are coming off a 13-point home win over the Kings with De’Aaron Fox pouring in 28-points with 11 assists. Memphis is off to a 4-10 SU start which includes a 1-5 SU road record. They are losing on the road by an average of -13.3ppg. The Grizz are in a dilemma right now and have to be considering blowing up this roster and starting over. They are bad on both ends of the court with 29th FG% overall, 27th in 3PT% and rank 27th in offensive efficiency. It’s not much better on the defensive side with the 18th ranked DEFF, 24th FG% D and 19th 3PT% defense. Memphis gives up the 27th most 2nd chance points in the NBA and the Spurs scored the 4th most. San Antonio is 7th in offensive efficiency at 1.186PPP and rank 7th in FG% (49.7%) and 17th in 3PT%. The Spurs have the better overall roster and it will show tonight against a Memphis team that has lost 4 straight on the road.

#626 ASA PLAY ON Yale -8.5 over Rhode Island, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Yale is off a 22-8 season and NCAA tourney appearance last year losing by 9 vs Texas A&M in round 1. They return 4 of their top 6 players from that team and rank 73rd nationally per KenPom which is nearly 100 spots higher than the next best team in the Ivy League (Cornell). They are taking on a Rhode Island team that lost everyone off last year’s team. Literally everyone. Their top 8 players are all transfers. The Rams are 3-1 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country (358th out of 365 teams). Their 3 wins are vs teams all ranked outside the top 300 and those teams currently have a combined record of 0-10 vs D1 opponents. The one team they’ve faced ranked inside the top 200, Tulsa, rolled the Rams by 17 points on a neutral court. This will be their first true road game of the season. Yale has played the tougher schedule (3-0 record) having not faced a team ranked lower than 240. They are the better team and they have a little extra motivation here. That’s because they lost @ URI last year by 6 points. The Bulldogs made only 22% of their triples in that tight loss which was WAY below their season average of 39% which ranked them 4th in the country. Yale also made 7 fewer FT’s and still nearly won on the road. We expect them to shoot much better at home in this one. Yale ranks 22nd nationally in FG%, 4th in 3 point FG%, and they make over 82% of their FT’s so far this season. We like the home team to win by double digits here.

#103 ASA PLAY ON Akron +3.5 over Bowling Green, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This is a lost season for a Bowling Green team that had high hopes entering the year. They went to a bowl game last year and now sit at 1-5 in MAC play, 3-7 overall. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games and in their only win during that stretch, a 5 point win over Toledo, they were outgained by over 200 yards. They are in a bit of disarray with head coach Eddie George firing his offensive coordinator a few weeks ago. The Falcons have used 4 QB’s this season and went with freshman Hunter Najm in his first start of the season. He has completed just 54% of his passes in limited action this year and has only 1 passing TD (2 interceptions). It looks like he’ll get the start here. The Falcons are getting outgained in MAC play by a average of 60 YPG and outscored by an average of 11 PPG. Akron is 4-8 on the year but ascending unlike BG. The Zips have won a total of 8 games the prior 3 seasons so there isn’t a “disappointment” level that the Bowling Green program has with their season. In fact, a win here gives them their most wins since the 2017 season. They have won 2 of their last 3 games with their only loss coming in OT last week vs Kent, in a game Akron outgained them 530 to 374 total yards. The Zips have a positive YPG differential in MAC play and they are averaging 24 PPG compared to BG’s 16 PPG. Akron should have a huge edge at QB with senior Ben Finley who has thrown for over 6,000 career yards and 41 TD’s. We have Akron rated as the better team and while BG looks to be just playing out the season, the Zips have so motivation to get to 5 wins. Take the points.

#478 ASA PLAY ON Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 over Dallas Cowboys, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We have to take more than a FG here with the Raiders at home vs the worst defense in the NFL. Hard to lay points on the road with a terrible defense, much less more than a FG and on the road so Dallas is a fade here. The Raiders have actually been competitive over the last month with their only no show vs KC on the road. They took Denver to the wire on the road in their most recent game and lost by 1 point at home vs Jacksonville a week prior to that. In their 10-7 loss @ Denver the Las Vegas defense held the Broncos to 3.9 YPP and the Raiders missed a FG late that would have tied the game. In their OT loss at home to the Jags a week earlier they outplayed Jacksonville (5.5 YPP to 4.8 YPP) but a failed 2 point conversion in OT was the difference. Big edge here to the Raider defense that has held 4 of their last 6 opponents to less than 5.0 YPP (Denver, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Chicago). They are in the top 10 in YPP, YPC, and YP pass completion allowed. They are a top 10 defense per DVOA while Dallas ranks 31st in that metric ahead of only Cincinnati. The Raiders only stinker at home was vs the LA Chargers (lost by 11) otherwise their other 3 home tilts were a win and two 1-point losses. Dallas has 1 road win on the season (@ NY Jets) and their 4 road losses have come by an average of 11 PPG. They are trending down having lost 3 of their last 4 games and the last 2 were double digit losses @ Denver and at home vs Arizona. The offense has carried this team, as we all know, as the D ranks 28th or over in total YPG, YPP, yards rushing and yards passing per game. The offense hasn’t looked great the last 2 games totaling 41 points while averaging barely 5.0 YPP. If they struggle again tonight vs a good LV defense, Dallas is cooked. The Boys have been road favorites just 4 times since the start of last season and covered only 1 of those games (@ Jets). Let’s take the points.

#813 SIU Edwardsville +25.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8 PM ET - SIUE is the highest rated team Wisconsin has faced this season currently sitting at #180 per KenPom yet the spread is similar to the Badgers games vs NIU (304th) and Ball State (263rd). Another comparison is Wisconsin’s first opponent, Campbell, sits about 10 spots below SIUE in the KenPom rankings and the spread for that game was +21. Value is on the Cougars here who are 2-0 SU this season as an underdog including beating Drake on the road over the weekend. The Cougs made the NCAA tourney last year with a 22-12 record and they return 5 of their top 8 players from a season ago. Their only chance to keep this game close is to play with a slow tempo (297th in adjusted tempo) and shorten this game. They have a very good defense ranking 82nd in defensive efficiency, 20th in FG% allowed and 58th in 3 point FG% allowed. They have held all 3 of their D1 opponents to 64 points or less (Drake, Indiana State, and UTSA). The Cougars also have the size up front to compete with the Badgers with 2 starters at 6’9 and 7’1 and a few bench players with size as well. We don’t expect Wisconsin to shoot 50% here which is their average on the season. They’ve faced 3 defenses ranked 336th, 276th, and 194th in efficiency. The Badgers have a HUGE revenge game on deck later this week vs BYU who knocked them out of the NCAA tourney last year winning by 2 points. They’ll be fine with getting out of here with any type of win and moving onto that game. We’ll take the points.

ASAwins NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 vs. L.A. Clippers, 7pm ET - This is a very favorable scheduling spot for the Sixers who have had 2 days of rest and now face a Clippers team playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back. The Clippers lost a hard-fought game in Boston yesterday 118-121 and are now just 2-8 SU in their last ten games with 5 of those L’s coming by more than 6-points. We love the fact that Philly is rested, but also coming off a loss in their most recent game in Detroit 105-114. The 76ers continue to be undervalued by the oddsmakers as witnessed by their 8-1-1 ATS record in their last 10 games. Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in six home games this season, the two losses are respectable coming against Detroit and Boston and 3 of the four wins have come by more than tonight’s spread. The Clippers are 1-4 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -10ppg. In each team's last ten games the Clippers have a negative net rating of -7.4, the Sixers have a positive net rating of +2.9 which is a great indicator of where these teams currently stand. This game have blowout written all over it.

ASAwins NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -3.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 7:40pm ET - The Mavs continue to struggle at 3-10 SU on the season with 3 straight losses on their home court. Portland got off to a hot start to the season but have since cooled to 6-6 SU on the year. A great recent barometer of this line is the Blazers were just favored at New Orleans by -8 points just a few games ago and now laying a significantly lower number on this game. Dallas was home dogs to the Clippers by 3 and the Suns by 2 which tells us this line is about right. The Mavs' struggles start with an offense that ranks last in the league in Offensive Efficiency, scoring just 1.045-points per possession. They don’t shoot it well with an eFG% of 50.6% (27th) and make just 10.2 3-pointers per game (30th). The other big factor in this game is turnovers. Dallas averages 17.1 TO’s per game - 3rd most. Portland turns teams over 17.5 times per game - 3rd most. The Blazers are also top half of the league in OeFF at 1.172PPP while making 13.9 3-pointers per game (11th most). We will lay the short number with the road chalk here.

#472 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Browns +9 -120 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Baltimore is now being talked about as one of the best teams in the NFL with Lamar Jackson back under center. We don’t see it. We think they are overvalued right now. They are 2-0 since Jackson came back beating Miami and Minnesota. Their win over Miami (28-6) final was misleading as they yardage was about dead even. Both teams pushed inside their opponents 25 yard line 4 times and Miami came away with 6 points while Baltimore scored 28 points. Last week they topped Minnesota 27-19 but they were outgained 6.0 YPP to just 4.9 YPP in that win but the Vikes had 3 turnovers (0 for Ravens). Jackson was banged up in that game and missed some practice time this week with a knee injury. He’s going to play but will he be effective on the ground vs Cleveland high level defense? We don’t think he’s back to 100% as he’s only rushed for 50 total yards in his last 2 games and just 3.5 YPC. The Browns defense has been lights out at home this season. They have allowed 197 YPG on 3.5 YPP and just 11 PPG at home this season. This total is set at 39 so a low scoring game is expected which makes it tougher to cover a game by more than a TD. Cleveland is 2-2 at home this year, including a win over Green Bay, and their 2 losses have come by 1 and 4 points. They are averaging 20 PPG at home and we don’t think they’ll need to get to that number to cover this game. The Ravens rolled the Browns 41-17 in their first meeting this season in Baltimore but look at the stats…Ravens 242 total yards / Browns 323 total yards. Cleveland averaged 5.2 YPC on the ground in that game and held Baltimore to 2.1 YPC. The Browns have won 3 of the last 4 at home vs the Ravens and we’ll say this one will be very close.

#705 ASA PLAY ON Houston -6.5 over Auburn, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Both teams are 3-0 having faced weak competition but Auburn is in full start from scratch mode. They lost all 5 starters from last year’s team and only return 1 key member off that team. Houston, on the other hand, played for the National Championship last year, lost by 2 points vs Florida, and they bring back 3 upperclassmen starters from that team. The Cougars have started right where they left off defensively ranking #1 in defensive efficiency last year and so far this season. They’ve held their 3 opponents to 57, 48, and 45 points. Their most recent win was over Oakland, a top 200 team and the Grizzlies veteran head coach Greg Kampe raved about this Houston defense after the game. His Oakland team scored 78 and 77 points their first 2 games vs Purdue (top 5 team) and Michigan (top 15 team) but were only able to score 45 vs Houston. This Auburn team, with a sophomore and 2 freshmen in the starting lineup, will have trouble with Houston’s physical nature on defense. The Cougs have better efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball and they have the experience factor as well. On top of that, they have a Hall of Fame coach in Kelvin Sampson facing an Auburn team with Bruce Pearl’s son Steven now running the show in his first year as a head coach. While this game is in Alabama, it’s not at Auburn’s home court (game in Birmingham). We’ll lay it with Houston.

#457 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Granted, the Steelers are at home in this Division showdown, but they aren’t in the best schedule having played in L.A. late Sunday night. Cincinnati on the other hand is coming off a much-needed bye week. The Steelers are a pretender our opinion and it’s starting to show with their 1-3 SU record in their last four games. In fact, Pittsburgh should be 0-4 in that stretch as the Colts gifted them a win two weeks ago with 6 TO’s and several empty red zone trips. The Steelers offense is literally one of the worst in the NFL ranking 29th in total yards per game, 24th in YPP, 30th in rushing and 23rd in passing yards per game. The Steelers last 3 games have been tough to watch with a 4.7YPP average and 247 total YPG. Pittsburgh should have some success moving the ball against this porous Bengals defense, but will it be enough to cover this number. We know Cincinnati will move the ball and put up points in this game against a Steelers D that is allowing 376 yards passing (28th) at 5.7 YPP. In the meeting earlier this season the Bengals completely outplayed the Steelers with +88 total yards, 8 more FD’s and a 9-minute TOP edge. Six of the last seven meetings between these two teams has been one score games and this one is shaping up to be decided by a FG either way.

#462 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Bears have been one of the most fortunate teams in the NFL this year. Their record is 6-3 yet they have a negative point differential (-8) and they are getting outgained by 0.5 YPP with their defense allowing 6.6 YPP (30th in the NFL) and on the road they are allowing an NFL worst 7.0 YPP. That defense also ranks 29th in YPC allowed (rushing) and 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed. So how are they 3 games above .500? Turnover margin. They rank #1 in the NFL at +14 turnover differential and the team in 2nd in that very key stat is only +8. Teams that win the turnover margin in a game win 75+% of the time so there’s your answer on why Chicago has a good record. In their 6 wins the Bears have a turnover differential of +17 which is ridiculous. The concerning part, a few of those wins vs poor teams (Bengals, Raiders, Commanders, and Giants) have all gone to the wire despite Chicago having a big turnover edge. Their other 2 wins are vs the Saints and Cowboys so not really a bunch of wins vs good teams. In fact not one team they’ve beaten currently has even a .500 record. The only 2 teams with a pulse that Chicago has played on the road was Detroit (lost by 31) and Baltimore (lost by 14 and Lamar Jackson was out). The Vikings are off a home loss vs Baltimore but they outplayed the Ravens rather drastically in the stat sheet (6.0 YPP to 4.9 YPP). Let’s not forget that a week earlier this Vikings team went to Detroit and beat the Lions on the road. Minnesota’s record is 4-5 and this becomes a huge home game for them if they want to have a shot at the playoffs as they are @ Green Bay and @ Seattle the next 2 weeks. Despite their record, they have a positive YPP differential unlike Chicago and they’ve dominated the Bears winning 8 of the last 9 meetings. We like Minnesota to win this one by more than a FG.

#393 ASA PLAY ON TCU +4 over BYU, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET - We successfully played against BYU last week and will double-down this Saturday with a wager on TCU. This is a perfect fade spot on the Cougars who are off their first loss of the season, which historically has a negative carryover affect the following week. Part of our handicap last week was obviously in support of BYU being overrated at this point of the season. TCU is 6-3 but in only one of those losses where they outplayed and they could legitimately be 8-1 here. We like the fact that the Frogs are coming off a misleading loss last week to Iowa State. Against the Cyclones, the Horned Frogs had 30 FD’s to 15, 452 total yards compared to 272, but essentially lost when ISU returned a punt for a TD late. On the subject of Iowa State, both teams have faced the Cyclones with TCU a -7.5-point home favorite, BYU was +2.5 at ISU. Both teams have also squared off with West Virginia. BYU was laying 20.5 points at home, TCU was just favored by -16.5 points at WV. BYU averages 6.2 yards per play (37th), TCU ranks 33rd at 6.1YPP. BYU allows 4.9YPP (27th), TCU gives up 5.2YPP (55th) so very similar statistics against comparable schedules. The betting indicators clearly favor TCU here with public bettors flocking to the Cougars off their loss, yet the line has moved significantly in favor of TCU. We will grab the points and won’t be shocked with the outright win.

#416 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -7.5 over Louisiana Tech, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Really rough spot here for La Tech. The blew a game they had in the bag @ Delaware and now they travel to the West Coast to take on Washington State who is coming off bye. LT led the Blue Hens last week by 10 points with under 1:00 minute remaining the game and lost. Delaware scored 10 points in the final 40 seconds to win. To make matters worse, the Bulldogs lost their starting QB Baker in that loss and he is done for the season. Having to travel home from Delaware after a devastating loss (almost 2,500 miles round trip) and then heading to Pullman, Washington (4,300 miles round trip) is a tough ask. The Cougars had 2 weeks to stew over their 10-7 loss @ Oregon State, a game in which they outgained the Beavers by nearly 100 yards. This team is 4-5 right now and they need 2 more wins for bowl eligibility so this is a huge home game for them. Wazzu is 3-1 at home this year with their only loss coming vs Washington. They have wins here vs San Diego State by 23 (best team the Mountain West) and Toledo by 21 (best team in the MAC). They also took Ole Miss and Virginia to the wire on the road this year losing by 3 and 2 points respectively. Those 2 teams are fighting to make their Conference Championship games and have a combined record of 17-3. La Tech is 1-3 on the road this year with their only win coming @ UTEP, one of the worst teams in the country. On the road this year the Bulldogs are only averaging 256 YPG and allowing 360 YPG. Washington State has played the much tougher schedule (56th SOS to 128th) and this one sets up perfectly. We like Wazzu by double digits.

#660 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska Omaha -9 over Southern Utah, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Omaha is in an early must win type spot here at home as they’ve started the season 0-3. All 3 of those games have been away from home and they had tight losses vs Murray State and Abilene Christian, both solid teams, and a blowout loss @ Colorado State (top 65 team) in their most recent game. Now they’ve had a full week off and finally get to play a home game. This UNO team is rated as one of the top 4 teams in the Summit League. They won the conference tourney last year and made it to the Big Dance. They finished with a 22-13 record and they have 4 of their top 7 players back from that team. The Mavericks were 11-2 at home last season and 22-5 the last 2 years. Southern Utah lost pretty much everyone from last year’s team including their 5 starters. They have only 2 players back who played minimal roles a season ago. The are rated outside the top 300 and currently sit as the lowest rated team in the WAC. The Thunderbirds rank outside the top 300 in both eFG% offense and defense. Their 3 point D has been horrendous this year 49% from deep while their offense makes less than 24% of their triples. They are 1-2 with 2 double digit losses and their only win was vs Bethesda. They have been poor on the road winning only 6 of their last 31. SUU also has a game @ Gonzaga in 2 days (on Monday) so they might be a bit distracted here. Lay it with Nebraska Omaha.

#348 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +7 over Penn State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - These teams stand 3-6 SU with basically nothing to play for. The difference is, the Spartans weren’t expected to be good this year and are in a rebuild mode. Penn State on the other hand was one of the favorites to win the National Championship prior to the start of the season. We are betting the Lions are flat in this game after their demoralizing loss last week to Indiana. Not only are they coming off that loss, they faced Ohio State and Iowa in previous games which had to have taken an emotional toll. Last Saturday PSU led Indiana and was about to pull off a massive upset, then IU scored with :36 seconds left in the game for the W. Sparty played well last two weeks ago in Minnesota a 20-23 loss but MSU put up 467 total yards at 6.8YPP, while holding Minnesota to 301yds 4.9YPP. Michigan State got a bump in that game offensively with QB Milivojevic making his first career start and going 20/28 for 311 passing yards. If you take a closer look at each teams overall offensive and defensive numbers you will see many similarities: PSU total offense 110th at 335 total YPG, 97th YPP at 5.3, MSU 103rd total O at 347ypg at 5.4YPP. Spartans defense allows 371ypg, Penn State allows 326ypg. Given the circumstances, this line is higher than it should be and the value lies with the motivated home underdog.

#402 ASA PLAY ON USC -6.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line is too low in our opinion. For comparison’s sake, last week Oregon was laying the same number (-6.5) @ Iowa as USC is laying at home on Saturday. We were on the Ducks last weekend and didn’t get the cover as they won by 18-16 @ Iowa. The conditions were tough with high winds, rain and sleet which really helped Iowa in that situation. The conditions made it tough for the much better offensive team, Oregon, to pull away and make a poor Iowa offense chase. Despite the tight final score, the Ducks outgained the Hawkeyes by 134 yards and put up 261 yards rushing to just 101 for Iowa. If the weather wasn’t bad in that game, we have no doubt Oregon wins by more than a TD. This is a rough spot for the Hawkeyes as they went all in on that game last week and lost on a last second FG. Now they travel to the west coast for the first time this year to face a USC team that is 5-0 at home with every win coming by at least 14 points. Last week the Trojans were impressive easily handling a surging Northwestern team that had won 4 of their previous 5 games including a win @ Penn State when the Nittany Lions still had starting QB Allar healthy. USC rolled the Cats 38-17 putting up almost 500 total yards to just 280 for NW. The Trojans also beat a very good Michigan team handily here by 18 points outgained the Wolverines by 174 yards while rushing for 224 yards on 6.2 YPC. This USC team is undervalued right now, especially at home. They have a huge edge offensively in this game averaging nearly 200 YPG more than Iowa and they put up 2.6 more YPP than the Hawks. Iowa hasn’t been on the road since they faced Wisconsin on October 11th. They’ve played 3 straight home games since then. Their league road schedule has been very weak facing Wisconsin and Rutgers and that’s it. Their game at Rutgers was a 10 point win, however the Scarlet Knights put up over 400 total yards outgained Iowa but the Hawkeyes had a kick return for a TD. USC is 4-1 ATS at home this season and they’ve covered 9 of 11 here since the start of last year. Looks like some rain in LA on Saturday but temps in the 60’s and winds around 10 MPH so not terrible. We’ll call for another here as USC wins this by 10+.

#704 ASA PLAY ON South Dakota -7 over Southern Indiana, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota is 1-2 on the season with their losses coming in OT vs Utah Tech and @ Creighton where they played well losing by 16 as a 26 point dog. The Coyotes have some continuity returning this year with 4 regulars (3 starters this year) that played key roles last season. Southern Indiana sits at 0=2 and has all transfers in their starting line up and only 1 player that played here last year in their top 8. It’s going to take some time them to figure out how to play together. These 2 faced off last season @ Southern Indiana and South Dakota was a 2.5 point road favorite in that one and lost outright. We were on SIU in that game as South Dakota was coming off an upset win @ Western Michigan just a few days earlier and the set up to take Southern was solid. We’re now getting the Coyotes at home, where they were 14-2 last season, laying only a few points more than they did on the road last season. The Screaming Eagles are 0-1 on the road this year and have been a terrible road team going 5-27 SU away from home since the start of the 2023 season. It’s early in the season but South Dakota has been the much better shooting team to date hitting almost 47% of their shots compared to 33% for Southern Indiana (344th nationally). The Screaming Eagles are also averaging less than 1.00 point per possession so far this season. Let’s take South Dakota at home on Wednesday night.

#308 ASA PLAY ON Miami OH +4 over Toledo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Toledo has been a terrible road team this season with an 0-4 SU mark including 2 losses as double digit favorites. The Rockets have had a tendency to lose games outright when laying points. In fact, Toledo has lost 18 times outright as a favorite since 2021 and 12 of those losses have come as a favorite of a TD or more. They can’t be trusted laying points on the road as they are 3-14 ATS in that situation dating back to the start of the 2022 season. As you might expect, the Rockets road numbers are WAY off their home numbers. Take a look at this…Toledo averages 44.3 PPG at home and 14.8 PPG on the road. They average 512 YPG (on 7.9 YPP) at home and 334 YPG (4.6 YPP) on the road. And it’s not as if they’ve played a much tougher slate away from home compared to at home with 3 of their 4 road opponents currently have a losing record and the only one with a winning record (Western Michigan) is 5-4. Miami OH is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming vs UNLV (who is currently 7-2) in a game the Redhawks led by 14 points in the 4th quarter and blew it. They are 29-5 SU at home their last 34 games. At home Miami is averaging 36 PPG (just 16 PPG on the road) and 419 YPG at home (301 on the road). Nice value here with Miami coming off a tight 24-20 road loss @ Ohio while Toledo destroyed Northern Illinois at home. The Rockets have never beaten Miami Oh by more than 4 on the road and we don’t think they will here. The Redhawks are absolutely live to pull this upset at home.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -7 vs. Golden State Warriors - 8PM ET - Golden State just played in Denver last week and was +9.5 points and now they are catching a smaller number at OKC? The Thunder are rated as the best team in the NBA with an eDIFF (Efficiency Differential) of +13.2, Denver is 2nd at +13.1. Golden State ranks 13th in eDIFF and they’ve played a weaker schedule than the Thunder. The Thunder are 4-0 SU at home with a +14.4ppg average margin of victory. Since the start of last season, including the playoffs, the Thunder are 50-8 SU at home with a plus +16.2ppg average differential. THAT INCLUDES THE PLAYOFFS against the other best teams in the NBA. Golden State has a very respectable 28-26 SU road record going back to the start of last year, but are 1-5 SU away from home this season with the only win coming at LA against the Lakers. The Warriors five road losses have come by 5-points or more, three of those L’s came by double digits. We will take the Champs on their home court and expect a 10+ point win in this one.

#632 ASA PLAY ON North Dakota State -1.5 over Cal State Northridge (CSUN), Tuesday at 8 PM ET - CSUN is in a bad situational spot here playing their 3rd road game in 6 days. They played @ Northern Iowa last Thursday (lost by 29 points), then played @ North Dakota on Sunday (won by 8) and now @ North Dakota State tonight. CSUN is 2-1 on the season and probably ready to get back home to California after being gone for a full week (left last Wednesday). The Matadors are coming off a 93-85 win @ North Dakota Sunday which wasn’t overly impressive. UND is ranked as the worst team in the Summit League, basically tied with UMKC (per KenPom) and the 324th best team in the country. The Fighting Hawks were just 12-21 last season and only won 5 Summit League games. Now CSUN, just 48 hours later, faces one of the top teams in the Summit (NDSU rated 3rd best team in the league) and the Bison will be hungry for a win after starting the season 0-2 losing @ Oregon State by 2 and @ UC Davis by 12. This will be their first home game of the season and unlike CSUN, they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this one. After 2 games, the Bison are shooting just 15% from beyond the arc and we’d expect them to shoot much better at home tonight. This team led the NATION in 3 point shooting last year hitting 40% of their triples so positive regression is likely tonight. NDSU should get plenty of extra possessions on Tuesday as CSUN has been a turnover machine this year coughing it up on over 24% of their possessions while the Bison create turnovers on 22% of their defensive possessions. NDSU, on the other hand, has done a nice job of taking care of the ball with just a 14% turnover rate. They should also control the boards as they rank in the top 70 in both offensive and defensive rebounding while CSUN is outside the top 300 in both of those this season. We like the hungry Bison to get this win at home.

#746 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -1.5 over St Thomas, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - St Thomas is in a really tough situational spot here. They played on the West Coast @ St Mary’s last Monday (lost by 26), then played at home vs a bad Army team (ranked 340th per KenPom) and won by just 7, and now 48 hours later they are back on the West Coast to take on Washington State. The Cougars are in must win mode here after dropping their first 2 games vs Idaho and Davidson. In their home opener vs Idaho, Wazzu was a -7.5 point favorite and now just 1 week later they are laying under 2 (current line -1.5) vs a St Thomas team that is similarly rated to Idaho. In that 83-81 loss, the Cougs shot just 6 of 28 from deep (21%) while Idaho made nearly 40% of their triples and the game still went to the wire. In 2 games, Wazzu is just 12 of 49 from deep and we would expect some positive regression here, especially at home. Just prior to the regular season, the Cougars faced a solid New Mexico team (95th per KenPom) in a scrimmage and knocked off the Lobos which tells us they just might be better than they’ve played in the first 2 games and they are most likely undervalued here laying a short number here. The Tommies were walloped on the West Coast in their opener vs St Mary’s and then struggled to put away Army at home. They shot 50% in that game and made 7 more FT’s and still only won by 7. The spot heavily favors Washington State and we’ll take the Cougs on Monday night.

#274 ASA PLAY ON LA Chargers -2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Steelers at 5-3 continue to be one of the league's biggest mysteries or frauds depending on how you look at them. There is no way the Steelers should have beaten the Colts last week 27-20. Indianapolis had 6 turnovers in the game and gave Pittsburgh that win. The Steelers managed just 225 total yards on 58 plays for a 3.9 yards per play average. Short fields largely contributed to their 27 points. Prior to last week the Steelers were outplayed by Green Bay who is underperforming and lost to a bad Bengals team. The Chargers are coming off a close win in Tennessee last week but the final score isn’t a true portrayal of how that game played out. L.A. was +11 in first downs, had a +9 minute time of possession advantage, averaged 5.8YPP while allowing just 206 total yards to the Titans. Pittsburgh in 28th in total yards per game, 22nd in YPP at 5.4, can’t run with an offense ranking 30th in rushing and throw it for 200ypg (21st). The Chargers average the 5th most total yards per game at 374 on 6.0YPP (10th), rush for 124ypg and throw it for 250ypg. The Steel Curtain isn’t showing up Sunday to save this Pittsburgh defense either. The Steelers allow the 30th most total yards per game, rank 25th in YPP given up and allow an average of 24.4ppg. The Chargers defense is significantly better than Pittsburgh’s allowing the 6th fewest yards per game, 11th lowest YPP average (5.4) and give up an average of 21.4ppg which is 12th fewest. The Chargers with Herbert outshined Aaron Rodgers in his return to California.

#264 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Nice spot for the Bucs coming off a bye giving them time to rest and get healthy. They still have a few players out (WR Godwin & RB Irving) but their offensive line looks healthy for the most part and their defense will only be missing 1 starter. Tampa has only played 3 home games to date and they’ve won 2 of those with their only loss coming vs the Eagles in a game the Bucs outgained Philly 376 to 200 total yards. While the Bucs were able to rest up and prepare for this game, the Patriots will be playing their 10th straight week and while they have a 7-2 record, they’ve faced, by far, the easiest schedule in the NFL. 4 of their 7 wins have come against Miami, Cleveland, New Orleans, and Tennessee who all rank 26th or lower in NFL DVOA with the last 3 listed ranking as the 3 worst teams in the NFL. They are coming off a home game where they held on to beat a 3-5 Atlanta team 24-23 in a game where the Falcons outgained them on a YPP basis. Not only will this be New England’s 10th straight week of playing games, it will also be their 4th road game in the last 6 weeks. The Pats will be without 2 of their best offensive weapons in this game with starting RB Stevenson and WR Boutte (5 TD receptions leads the team) both out. This one could come down to which high level QB, Maye or Mayfield, has the better day. Tampa has the better pass rush (both sacks per game & sack percentage) and they have better numbers in opponent completion percentage, opponent QBR, and opponent yards per pass attempt. The Pats defense has struggled on the road allowing 6.3 YPP despite facing the Saints, Titans, and the Dolphins in 3 of their 4 road games. Tampa’s D has allowed just 4.7 YPP at home this season. We like the situation here and expect TB to win by more than a FG.

#260 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans +1.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - No way the Jags should be favored in this game in our opinion. We realize that Houston will be going with Davis Mills at QB here, but we’re not talking about a inexperienced rookie back up or anything like that. Mills has over 6,000 career passing yards and has thrown for 35 TD’s. He’ll be fine here. He wasn’t great last weekend but he had to come in cold off the bench and face one of the best defenses in the NFL (Denver). Now he gets a week in practice with reps and a game plan set for him and facing a much weaker defense vs Jacksonville (22nd total D and 20th in YPP allowed). There are 3 average type units on the field in this game and one elite unit, the Houston defense. They’ll be by far the best unit on the field and facing a Jags offense that just hasn’t been very good as of late. They did score 30 points last week (7 in OT) beating the Raiders but only averaged 4.8 YPP. In fact, in their last 3 games they’ve averaged 4.8, 4.0, and 4.8 YPP and scored 12 points or less in 2 of those games. Not good. In their first meeting this year, the Jags came away with a 17-10 win at home despite getting outgained on a YPP basis. Houston had 3 turnovers (all inside the Jacksonville 35 yard line) and missed a FG in that tight loss. The Jaguars are a “false” 5-3 in our opinion as they have a negative YPP differential and they’ve been outscored on the season. They are currently 1 of just 3 teams in the NFL that have a winning record and a negative point differential (Bears and Panthers are the other 2). They’ve actually been outgained in 4 of their 5 wins this season (YPP differential) but heavily benefited from turnovers in their wins (+7 turnover margin in their 5 wins). This one is do or die for Houston who has a 3-5 record and has games vs Chiefs, Bills, and Colts in the next month. Take the points with the Texans.

#660 ASA PLAY ON Bradley -9.5 over Central Michigan, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Bradley is off a tight 69-63 loss vs a good St Bonaventure that is projected to be one of the top teams in the Atlantic 10 this year and finished 22-12 last season. That game was on a neutral court in South Carolina and now the Braves are back at home where they were 13-3 last season and 41-7 since the start of the 2022 season. The Braves finished 2nd in the Missouri Valley last season with a 28-9 overall record and they are projected as one of the top 3 teams in that league this year. CMU, on the other hand, is projected to be one of the worst teams in the MAC this year and the Chippewas have had only 1 winning season since 2018. However, CMU did win their season opener giving us some value on Bradley here. The Chippewas beat App State at home on Monday but they were fortunate as the Shot Quality stats had them losing that game by 6. CMU is projected as a bottom 4 team in the MAC and now we’re getting some value at home with one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley at home off a loss.

#173 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -6.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - A long time ago, as a general rule, we were told to never lay points on the road in the Big Ten. It still holds true in the big picture but there are obvious exceptions. Last season road favorites hit around 40% of the time but favorites under a TD performed better and those games were decided by an average margin of victory of +7.6ppg. Oregon has been especially good in the role as a road favorite with a 34-16 ATS since 2011, 15-0 S/U & 11-4 ATS under Lanning. In their last 15 as a road chalk, the Ducks have an average margin of victory of +25.1ppg. Iowa has a strong history as a home dog under Ferentz but the Hawkeyes have been home dogs just two times since the start of the 2022 season going 1-1 ATS with an average loss margin of minus -9.0ppg. The Hawks were +9.5 points at home earlier this season against Indiana, the Ducks were laying -7 versus the Hoosiers. IU wasn’t in a great scheduling situation at Iowa, coming off a huge win over Illinois. Oregon grades slightly below Indiana in our rankings and come into this game in a much better situation. The Ducks played miserable two weeks ago at home against Wisconsin, then had last week off to figure things out. Iowa has great defensive numbers but they are eerily similar to Oregon’s defense. The big difference comes offensively where the Ducks rate as one of the best in college football with 7.4YPP (4th), 484 total yards per game (14th) and 41ppg (5th). In comparison, Iowa ranks 122nd in total yards per game (317), 104th in YPP (5.1) and score 31ppg. We are on the Ducks in this one.

#179 ASA PLAY ON Kansas +5.5 over Arizona, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We aren’t fans of playing on Kansas in the role of a favorite but we do like them as dogs if the price is right. Arizona is overrated according to our rankings and a bigger favorite than they should be in this situation. One quick comparison is both teams' games against Oklahoma State where Kansas was favored by -24.5 points at home versus the Cowboys, UA was favored by 20.5 in the same situation. Kansas is averaging 6.1YPP on the season (46th) with a rushing offense averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 159 rushing yards per game. Arizona has similar offensive statistics at 6.1YPP, throw it better than KU but don’t run it as well at 150 rushing yards per game on the season. The Wildcats have better overall defensive numbers across the board than Kansas but the Jayhawks have faced a pair of top 30 offenses this season and overall tougher schedule. Arizona just hung 52 points on Colorado but were also +3 in TO’s and benefited from great field position and a few big plays. In their two games prior to last week, the Wildcats rush defense was gouged by BYU for 258 yards and Houston ran for 232. We like the Jayhawks rushing advantage and will bet a potential rush-doubling underdog in this one which produces an extremely high cover rate historically.

#166 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -10 over BYU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Biggest game so far this season in the Big 12. 8-0 BYU travels to 8-1 Texas Tech. The Red Raiders were dominant last week on the road vs a surging Kansas State team that was peaking. Tech won by 23 points and outgained KSU by over 100 yards. Their only loss this season came at Arizona State when the Sun Devils scored with just over 30 seconds left to win 26-22. Tech played that game without their starting QB. Every other game they’ve played they’ve won by at least 23 points. While BYU is undefeated, they haven’t looked great on the road. They nearly lost @ Colorado (won by 3) who is one of the worst Power 4 teams in the country. They won in OT @ Arizona after scoring 10 points in the final few minutes of regulation to push that game to an extra stanza. The Cougars most recent road game they got down by 2 TD’s vs a free falling Iowa State team and came back to win with the help of 4 ISU turnovers (0 for BYU) and they were outgained 495 to 410 in that win. BYU is 5-0 in Big 12 play yet their point differential is just +40. Compare that to Texas Tech who is 5-1 in league play and even with a loss, their point differential is nearly 100 points better than BYU (+134). These 2 teams have played similar strength of schedules, yet Tech’s stats are much better. The Raiders have a +221 YPG differential (BYU is +115) and their YPP differential is +2.6 (BYU is +1.6). Tech is top 10 nationally in both total offense and total defense while BYU ranks outside the top 25 in both. We like Texas Tech to win this by at least 2 TD’s.

#118 ASA PLAY ON Memphis -3.5 over Tulane, Friday a 9 PM ET - Tulane has been trending down over the last few weeks and we’re going to take advantage of this cheap line with Memphis at home. In their last 3 games Tulane beat ECU by 7 at home, beat Army by 7 at home, and then lost @ UTSA by 22. They are just 2-2 on the road this year with their wins coming @ Tulsa (2-6 record) and @ South Alabama (2-6 record). They only beat a bad South Alabama team by 2 points and they were outgained in that game. They have also had a bit of a distraction late in the season with head coach Sumrall getting overtures from a number of larger programs that have or will have a head coach opening. Memphis is 8-1 both SU & ATS this season and this team still has a shot at the playoffs. The Tigers are 4-0 at home including a win over SEC Arkansas and they’ve won 53 of their last 61 games here at home. If we compare these 2 stat wise Tulane has a YPG margin of just +6 while Memphis is outgaining their opponents by +84 YPG Scoring wise the Tigers are averaging 38 PPG and allowing just 19 PPG (39-19 average score at home) while the Green Wave are scoring 26 PPG and allowing 25 PPG (averaging 25 PPG and allowing 35 PPG on the road). The host should also have an advantage in the trenches as they are better running the ball (201 to 175 YPG rushing) and better stopping the run (128 to 158 YPG rushing allowed). These 2 met last season @ Tulane and Memphis won 34-24 and the Tigers were +80 total yards. This year Tulane is power rated lower than last year’s team and we have Memphis better than a year ago. We’ll lay this small number.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -2.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7:30pm ET - This is a short number with the road team so we’ll lay it with the Rockets in this “big State” rivalry. After opening the season with a pair of losses the Rockets have ripped off 5 straight wins, 3 of which were on the road. Houston currently has the best eDIFF (efficiency differential) in the at +13. They currently rank 1st in offensive efficiency, 6th defensively. The Spurs have some great numbers too including an eDIFF of +8.3, ranking 2nd in DEFF, 10th in OEFF. Houston has one of, if not the biggest starting lineup in the league and basically everyone can switch and still guard Wemby. The big advantage we like in Houson’s favor is their #1 ranked 3PT% of 42.7% going head-to-head with a Spurs defense that ranks 26th in 3PT% defense allowing 38.4% on the season. The young Spurs don’t shoot it nearly as well from deep ranking 15th in 3PT%, 15th. San Antonio has feasted on opponents by crashing the offensive glass but that won’t be an asset tonight against the 2nd best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. We like the vet Rockets to get it done Friday.

#712 ASA PLAY ON Kent State -5.5 over Cornell, Friday at 7 PM ET - Kent is off an OT loss here at home on Monday vs Troy. This now becomes an important game early in the season as they don’t want to lose back to back home games to start the season. The Golden Flashes are tough to beat at home where they were 34-10 SU the prior 3 years. In their loss they simply shot very poorly making only 38% of their shots while Troy was throwing everything in the ocean hitting 52% from the field. Even with that discrepancy, the game still went to OT. Look for the Kent defense to play much better tonight as they were very solid last year (83rd in defensive efficiency) under long time head coach Senderoff who has nine 20 win seasons as the head man here. It wasn’t a bad loss by any means as Troy was an NCAA tourney team last season, but a game if Kent shoots just OK they win. The Flashes had quality shots they just didn’t make them. In fact, the post game shot quality score for this game should have been 100-84 in favor of Kent. One positive is they had a very good rebounding game with 44 boards (+11 margin) and that should continue here vs a Cornell team that was a poor rebounding team last year. Kent returns 3 starters and picked up some big transfers from UNLV, Cincinnati, and Niagara and we expect them to be one of the top teams in the MAC again this year after finishing 24-12 last season. Cornell lost 3 key starters from last year’s team that combined to average over 40 PPG. This is their first game of the year and they are walking into a tough situation. We’ll lay this small number with Kent State.

#110 ASA PLAY ON Denver Broncos -9 over Las Vegas Raiders, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Tough spot here for the Raiders after losing 30-29 in OT on Sunday. A demoralizing loss that saw Jacksonville kick a FG with 16 seconds left in regulation to send it to OT, then the Jags scored a TD with just under 4:00 left in OT (their opening drive) leaving LV with a short clock needing a TD. They scored that TD but failed on the 2 point conversion for the tough loss. Now on the road on a short week where historically teams playing on Thursday night coming off an OT game on Sunday do very poorly (6-25 ATS overall and just 3-16 ATS when on the road). On top of that, the Raiders have been brutal on the road. Since their season opening win @ New England, they’ve lost their last 3 on the road by margins of 34, 31, and 17 points. They’ve scored a grand total of 6 points in their last 2 road games combined (@ Indy and @ KC) and now they face one of the top defensive teams in the NFL. Denver is 3rd in total defense and 1st in YPP allowed. They’ve held 5 opponents to 17 points or less and they’ve held the Raiders to less than 20 points in 4 of their last 5 meetings. Denver won both games last year by double digits averaging 31.5 PPG in those 2 wins. They should have success here again vs a LV defense who’s home vs road dichotomy is quite drastic. This defense allows just 295 YPG on 4.6 YPP at home compared to 372 YPG and 5.8 YPP on the road. The Raiders are allowing 21 PPG at home but 31 PPG on the road this season. The Broncos are averaging just over 31 PPG at home this season and should be able to put enough points on the board to win this one by 10+ as we expect the Raiders to struggle offensively. We’ll lay it.

#112 ASA PLAY ON South Florida -13.5 over UTSA, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Good spot here for a very good USF team coming off a tight loss @ Memphis 34-31. The Bulls led that game by 14 in the 4th quarter and the Tigers scored the final 17 points for the wins. USF put up 564 yards in that loss to 450 for Memphis. The Bulls also rolled up huge numbers on the ground, as they usually do, rushing for almost 300 yards in 7.8 YPC. They were shut out on downs twice inside Memphis territory (including inside the 5 yard line) and missed a FG otherwise they walk out of that game with a win. Now they’ve had 11 days to stew about that loss and get back home where they are 4-0 with an average score of 50-15 and an average YPP margin of +3.2! The Bulls only other loss this season was @ Miami FL They’ve had some very impressive wins including topping Florida on the road and beating a very good Boise State team 34-7. UTSA is coming off a home win as a dog beating Tulane a week ago on October 30th. Tulane gave the Roadrunners a boost with 4 turnovers (0 for UTSA) but they still put up 434 yards in the loss. UTSA has been a completely different away from home this year. They are 1-3 on the road with their only win coming @ Colorado State by a final of 17-16. CSU is now 2-6 on the season, they’ve fired their coach, and sit outside the top 110 in our power rankings. Not an impressive 1 point win for UTSA. The Roadrunners average 475 YPG and 48 PPG at home and just 338 YPG and 19 PPG on the road. As posted above, USF averages a ridiculous 50 PPG at home (on 508 YPG) so UTSA is going to have to put up big numbers to keep up here. These 2 have one common opponent so far this season. They both played at North Texas with UTSA losing 55-17 and getting outgained 584 to 329 total yards while USF beat UNT on the road 63-36 and outgained the Mean Green 580 to 443. We have the much better team, at home, in a very solid situation. We’ll lay it.

#101 ASA PLAY ON Miami OH +3 over Ohio, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Miami sits in first place in the MAC with a 4-0 mark and Ohio is 3-1 on conference play. These 2 met twice last year with Miami winning in the regular season by 10 points but getting rolled 38-3 in the MAC Championship game with the Bobcats winning as a 1 point dog. It gives the Redhawks huge motivation for this game as the 35 point margin was their worst MAC loss in their history! This is a program that is not used to losing period with a 51-22 SU record in MAC play since the start of the 2016 season. As an underdog, the Redhawks have been a big time money maker with a 15-6 ATS record (conference games) in that role since 2018. Ohio is very solid, but if we compare the numbers it definitely favors Miami OH. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedules on the season and Miami has a YPP differential of +1.0 and Ohio is dead even at +0.0. Defensively, Miami is much better allowing a full 1.0 YPP less than the Bobcats (4.9 YPP allowed by Miami and 5.9 by Ohio). The Ohio offense relies heavily on the run (20th nationally in rush attempts per game) and the Redhawk D is stout up front allowing just 123 YPG rushing on only 3.7 YPC. The Bobcats defense allows 154 YPG rushing and almost 5.0 YPC so advantage in the trenches to Miami. Our power ratings have Miami as a 2 point favorite on a neutral field so this line should be closer to pick-em in our mind. We’ll take Miami plus the points.

Champions League #224205 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arsenal Goal Line -1.5 Goals (-120) over Slavia Prague, Tuesday at 12:45 ET - Each club is missing some players entering this one but the impact is far more taxing on a Slavia Prague side that does not have the depth or talent level that this Arsenal club has!  The last time these clubs met here, in Europa League again a few years ago, the disparity between these clubs was very evident as Arsenal prevailed 4-0.  A similar result would not surprise us here.  Arsenal is on an incredible 7-game run in which they have not allowed a goal.  Overall Arsenal has won 9 games in a row and they have scored an average of 2 goals in those 9 victories.  Though the Slavia Prague defense has also been strong of late, they have not faced near the same level of competition.  Additionally, Slavia Prague is having major struggles at the offensive end of the pitch when facing tougher competition and that is certainly not good news for a team when facing the stifling defensive systems of Arsenal.  In fact, Slavia Prague has scored decently in 2 straight matches but against outclassed foes and one was in Cup (non-league) action.  Prior to this they had scored a total of just 1 goal across 5 matches as they were shutout 4 times in 5 games!  Arsenal is 3-0 in Champions League action and won the games by a combined score of 8 to 0.  Slavia Prague is winless in 3 Champions League matches and was outscored 5 to 2.  A very in-form Arsenal side is simply too much for the hosts in this one!  We look for another multi-goal victory for the road side (with a huge talent advantage) as they roll big Tuesday on enemy soil. We will lay 1.5 goals with the road team in this one.  

#934 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Tight loss for us here with this same selection in Game 6 but the Blue Jays did outhit the Dodgers 8-4 in a tough 3-1 loss. One key event that happened late when the Blue Jays were setting up a possible game-winning rally was that the Dodgers had to go with Tyler Glasnow to get the final 3 outs of the game. He was the Game 3 starter and was expected to start Game 7. Now, as a result of last night's action, Glasnow will not be starting here and it is expected to be Ohtani starting on short rest. Ohtani just pitched Tuesday so Saturday is sooner than normal for a starting pitcher. Also he did struggle some in that Game 4 outing and the Jays got the win. We expect them to do the same here and look for Max Scherzer to have a solid outing in his first home start of the post-season. He was only 2-4 on the road in the regular season but went 3-1 in his home starts and had a number of solid outings here in Toronto. Yesterday's loss was a tough one for us as it looked like it was going to end 3-2 at worst and we would have cashed our run line with a 1-run loss of course. We will get it back today in the final game of the season. Prior to yesterday's 3-1 LA win, the Dodgers last 12 games haf featured only 4 wins by more than a 1-run margin and 8 of the last 10 Blue Jays games had either been outright wins or a loss by just a 1-run margin! This one is all about the value! We are going with the +1.5 runs with the run line here in Game 7!

#354 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota -3.5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for the Gophers at home. They are coming off an embarrassing effort @ Iowa last Saturday losing 41-3 while putting up only 133 total yards. They had 3 turnovers and Iowa scored on a pick 6 and a punt return. The Minnesota defense, despite giving up 41 points (really 27 if you subtract the defensive and special teams TDs), the Hawkeyes had only 274 yards on 4.8 YPP. Now they come home to face MSU where they’ve been dramatically better with a 5-0 record (0-3 on the road). At home the Gophers are averaging 26 PPG compared to 7 PPG on the road. Total yardage per game at home is 351 (5.4 YPP) and just 210 (3.5 YPP) on the road. Defensively Minnesota is allowing just 16 PPG at home while giving up nearly 37 PPG on the road. They allow just 4.5 YPP at home and 6.0 YPP on the road. You get the point. They’ll be more than ready here at home as a win clinches bowl eligibility. MSU had their biggest game of the season last week at home vs rival Michigan. That was Sparty’s “all in” game and they lost by 11. It wasn’t that close as MSU scored a TD with under 10 seconds remaining to make the score look closer than it was. Offensively they only averaged 4.2 YPP and 75 of their 300 total yards came on the last “meaningless” drive. On the road they are getting outgained by over 100 YPG and by a full 2.0 YPP. Facing a top 20 Minnesota defense that allows 249 YPG and 4.3 YPP at home will be tough. The Spartans have lost all 3 of their road games by double digits and they are in a free fall overall losing 5 straight (all by double digits as well) by an average margin of -14 PPG. The rumblings out of East Lansing are that head coach Smith might be on his way out and that distraction along with losing in their biggest game of the season last week gives us MSU will be flat as a pancake vibes. We’ll take the motivated home team at this low spread.

#932 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Blue Jays were expected to get steamrolled in this series by most prognosticators.  However, not only are they not getting steamrolled, they just might win this thing!  Already, by virtue of winning Wednesday's critical Game 5 (and convincingly by the way), they have guaranteed they have up to two chances to win this thing in Toronto whether that is tonight or tomorrow night.  Actually we would not be surprised to see this scrappy Blue Jays team wrap up the series victory tonight but we are going to have the added insurance of the run line here.  Yamamoto is off B2B strong starts as he pitched complete games in which he allowed just 1 earned run in each including a great start versus Blue Jays in this series.  However, the way the Jays are playing with such confidence right now with B2B wins by a combined score of 12 to 3, we would not be surprised to see them get to Yamamoto in the rematch.  Gausman has allowed just 7 earned runs in his 4 post-season starts and LA has all the pressure in the world on them now.  As we mentioned above, most people had the Dodgers for a sweep or LA in 5 or maximum 6.  Now instead, Los Angeles is facing elimination in Game 6.  All the pressure is on LA and that makes this a great spot to back the Jays again!  The Dodgers last 12 games have featured only 4 wins by more than a 1-run margin!  8 of the last 10 Blue Jays games have either been outright wins or a loss by just a 1-run margin!  This one is all about the value!  We are going with the +1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#317 ASA PLAY ON North Carolina +2.5 over Syracuse, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Both have similar records with UNC at 2-5 SU and Cuse at 3-5 SU but these are definitely teams heading in opposite directions. The Orange started the season winning 3 of their first 4 games, but lost starting QB Angeli and have since lost 4 straight. Not only have they lost 4 in a row, they’ve been blown out in each losing all by at least 13 points. They were averaging 38 PPG with Angeli under center but his replacement, Rickie Collins, has led this team to just 13 PPG. Collins had almost no experience with 7 pass attempts in his career prior to this season. Since taking over the starting job Collins has completed only 54% of his passes and has more interceptions than TD passes. He’ll be facing an UNC defense that is playing very well right now under defensive guru Bill Belichick. The Heels have allowed 21 (vs Cal) and 17 (vs Virginia) points in their last 2 games hold the explosive Cavs to 20 points below their average scoring output. The Heels held both of those offenses to less than 300 total yards including holding UVA to just 259 yards (they average 437 YPG). UNC lost both games but really should be on a 2 game winning streak. They lost those 2 games by a combined 4 points but outgained both teams but lost the turnover battle by a combined 6 to 1 in those losses. The fact that they played both games to the wire (both teams are better than Syracuse) with a -5 turnover margin was impressive. Carolina has the much better defense allowing 1.1 YPP less than Syracuse and while the Orange have the better overall offensive numbers, we think UNC is better on that side of the ball right now as well since the QB change for the Orange. Cuse has not been favored since Collins took over at QB and UNC nearly pulled the upset in each of their last 2 games as a dog of more than a TD in both. We’ll take North Carolina and the points here.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls -4.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - The Bulls are 3-0 with all three wins coming against playoff qualifying teams from a year ago. They have gotten great all around contributions with 6 players scoring in double-digits in all three games. The Bulls have the 10th best FG% in the NBA at 48.1% and are shooting 37% from beyond the arc (11th). They also have the 7th best FG% defense and best 3PT% D in the NBA. The Kings have gotten off to a 1-3 SU start and are in a tough scheduling situation here with this being the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. They also are coming off an emotional game in OKC last night. Last season the Kings were 5-11 SU when playing without rest with an average point differential of minus -6.4ppg. Chicago is on a 13-7 SU run when playing with a rest advantage dating back to last season. To be honest, the Kings have the better roster, but the Bulls are playing hard for Billy Donovan right now and benefit from scheduling. Lay it with the home team.

#929 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - The Blue Jays were expected to get steamrolled by most prognosticators.  However, not only are they not getting steamrolled, they just might win this thing!  Already, by virtue of winning last night's critical Game 4 (and convincingly by the way), they have guaranteed there will be more baseball north of the border on Friday (at least) no matter what happens tonight.  Actually we would not be surprised to see this scrappy Blue Jays team take a 3-2 series lead home to Toronto but we are going to have the added insurance of the run line here.  Yesavage gets the start for Toronto and he is facing Snell of the Dodgers just like he did in Game 1 of this series.  That one was a big Jays win and while this one will not be so easy on the road, we just don't see Toronto being blown out and there is a lot of value.  The Jays bullpen has been better than the Dodgers and Yesavage did pitch better than Snell in the first game.  Also, the Dodgers last 11 playoff games have featured only 4 wins by more than a 1-run margin!  7 of the last 9 Blue Jays games have either been outright wins or a loss by just a 1-run margin!  This one is all about the value!  We are going with the +1.5 runs with the run line in this one! 

#307 ASA PLAY ON Florida International +3.5 over Missouri State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - We like the big advantage FIU will have in the running game here. They rank in the top 35 nationally in YPG on the ground and YPC. They’ve really turned it up on the ground as of late with 222 yards rushing vs Kennesaw State and 249 yards rushing vs Western Kentucky (their 2 most recent games). Those are 2 of the best teams in CUSA with Kennesaw currently in 1st place winning 5 straight games and WKY in 3rd place. The Panthers beat WKY 25-6 on the road and despite their loss vs Kennesaw, they outgained the Owls and put up over 500 yards. FIU has put up over 200 yards on the ground in 4 of their 7 games this season. They’ll be facing a Missouri State D that ranks 119th allowing 4.9 YPC. That’s despite facing 4 straight opponents that rank outside the top 100 in rushing. The only 2 teams they faced that rank inside the top 100 put up 233 and 191 yards on the ground vs this Bear defense. While the Panthers were giving 2 of the top teams in the conference problems in their last 2 games, Missouri State faced 2 of the worst teams in the country, MTSU and New Mexico State, and won those games by 2 points and in OT respectively. The Bears are in their first year in the FBS and while they have 3 wins vs FBS teams, all 3 have been by 2 points or less or in OT. Unlike FIU, Mizzou State is a poor running team ranking outside the top 100 in YPG rushing and YPC and they’ve been outrushed by -1.6 YPC. We always like taking a strong look at good rushing underdogs that should control the line of scrimmage. We’ve got that here with FIU.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 at Boston Celtics, 7pm ET - Last season these two teams were eerily similar with the Cavs have the 2nd best Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +9.6, the Celtics were right behind them at +9.4. But that Celtics roster included Tatum, Porzingis, Holiday and Horford who are injured (Tatum) or not on the roster anymore. The Cavs return the core of their roster including All-Stars Mobley and Mitchell. The Cavs were -2-point favorites at Detroit and at New York this season and we grade those two teams significantly better than this Celtics roster. Boston is coming off their first win of the season at New Orleans who currently rate as the 2nd worst team in the NBA when it comes to eDiff. The Cavs have won 2 straight games against Eastern Conference contenders the Bucks and Pistons. Cleveland is shooting the ball significantly better than the Celtics right now at 47.6% overall (11th) and 36.8% from deep (11th) compared to Boston’s numbers of 44.8% and 31.9% which both rank 26th or worse in the NBA.

#283 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +11.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - KC is playing as well as anyone in the NFL over the last few weeks and that’s giving us huge line value with Washington in this game. To put this +11.5 line in perspective, it is almost basically the same number that KC was laying last week vs Las Vegas who is one of the worst teams in the NFL (that line was -13 to -13.5). To compare those 2 teams via DVOA, Washington ranks 7th in the NFL and Las Vegas is 28th. You get the point. On top of that, we get a playoff caliber team Washington coming off a blowout, embarrassing loss @ Dallas 44-22. The Commanders had 2 turnovers in that loss (0 for Dallas) and both led to TD’s for the Cowboys including a pick 6. Washington was also missing 2 of their key offensive weapons in that game, Samuel and McLaurin, and both are expected back here. QB Jayden Daniels was injured in the game and will not play here but he has struggled his last few starts so that may be a bonus. Marcus Mariota is one of the best back ups on the league and this will be his 3rd start this season (1-1 record). KC is coming off a shutout win vs a plummeting Las Vegas team and the Raiders ran only 30 total offensive plays which is insanely low. That easy win, along with Washington’s poor performance pushed this line to -12.5 and the look ahead number last week was -5.5. A full TD move based on last week’s results + the QB injury for the Commanders which may not set them back at all offensively. KC has their rivalry game with Buffalo on deck so if they get ahead late look for them to dial it back on offense. Washington’s road games this year had them +3 at Green Bay, +3 at LA Chargers, +2.5 at Atlanta, and +1.5 at Dallas. Now they’re getting almost 2 TD’s here? We’ll take Washington.

ASA play on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:10 pm ET - It’s the battle of “beatens” tonight as the 0-3 Celtics take on the 0-2 Pelicans. New Orleans does enjoy a scheduling advantage here as they last played on Friday, while the Celtics played yesterday making this the 2nd of a back-to-back and it’s also their 3rd game in four days. The Pelicans have some injuries to their bigs and it's shown in their first two games, but a small lineup tonight won’t hurt them. Boston has been outrebounded 108-75 in their last two games as the offseason losses of Porzingis, Horford and Kornet have taken a toll on their frontcourt. New Orleans has lost two close games to the Grizzlies and Spurs and have been dominated inside with opponents averaging 60ppg in the paint. The Celtics can’t take advantage of that weakness as they rank 24th in points scored in the paint. Boston lives and dies with the 3-point shot and the Pelicans are 2nd in the league in 3PT% defense at 30%. The Celtics still have a bullseye on their backs from a Championship two years ago so it’s not like the Pelicans will be looking past them here. There is a reason the Pels are favored here, lay the points!

ASA play on Portland Trailblazers +8.5 at LA Clippers, 9:10pm ET - The Blazers clearly have some controversy swirling around their team with their head coach on leave after gambling implications, but the players should put that behind them here in a big game in Los Angeles. The Blazers are going to be better than anticipated anchored by a formidable defense. The Blazers had the 4th best Defensive Net rating in the NBA a year ago post All-Star break and this year's squad has potential to be better with the addition of Jrue Holiday. Portland didn’t let the noise distract them Friday night when they pounded the Warriors 139-119 at home. The Clippers were embarrassed in the season opener in Utah but bounced back on Friday with a 27-point win over the Suns. L.A. has a rebuilt roster with several new faces and make take a little time to jell with all of the ‘alpha’s’ in that lineup. Portland had an average road differential of minus -1.2ppg on the road last season after the All-Star break with a 6-8 record. This should be a tight defensive game from start to finish.

#279 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys +3.5 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Denver had an absolute miracle win over the Giants last week here at home. They trailed 19-0 in the 4th quarter but rallied to put up 33 points in the fourth quarter for a 33-32 win. The Broncos are 5-2 but they’ve played the 4th easiest schedule to date and 4 of their 5 wins have come against the Jets, Bengals, Titans, and Giants. Those 4 teams all rank 27th or lower in overall DVOA. Their one OK win came vs the Eagles, who are obviously down this year, and Denver rallied from a 17-3 fourth quarter deficit to squeak that one out. All of their wins with the exception of Cincinnati have been 1 score games. The Cowboys have been able to stay in games with their high powered offense. Of their 3 losses, 2 have come by 4 points or less. They rank #1 in total offense and are averaging almost 30 PPG. They also got a huge boost last week with WR Lamb getting back in the line up for their 44-22 win over Washington. They have scored at least 27 points in 5 of their last 6 games and while Denver has great numbers of defense, they’ve already faced 4 opposing offenses ranked 26th or lower. They’ve faced only 2 top 10 offenses and lost both of those games vs Chargers and Colts. They are just 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite. We have a big edge at QB here with Dak Prescott having an MVP type year (#1 QBR) vs an up and down Bo Nix. If we look strictly at DVOA, Dallas is the better team ranking 9th compared to 14th for Denver. Take the points here.

#272 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -7 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Look, we’re all about finding edges where the market’s sleeping, and this Eagles-Giants matchup is screaming opportunity. Forget team loyalty—this is about exploiting a line that’s begging to be played. Philly’s coming off their best offensive showing of the season, averaging 7.8 yards per play against Minnesota, and now they’re back home where they’ve been fantastic, posting a 12-2 SU record in their last 14 at Lincoln Financial Field with a +9.6 point differential. Meanwhile, the Giants are reeling. They pulled off a massive upset 34-17 upset over Philly two weeks ago in their own building, but last week’s collapse in Denver—blowing a 19-0 lead and giving up 33 points in the fourth quarter alone—exposed their defensive frailties. Our internal metrics rank the Eagles 9th overall, while the Giants limp in at 25th. Philly’s had two weeks to dissect tape on New York’s rookie QB Jaxson Dart, so no surprises this time. The same -7.5 spread was set when these teams met in New York, but now the Eagles have momentum, home-field dominance, and a chip on their shoulders. Don’t overthink this one, take Philadelphia and don’t look back.

#264 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -1.5 over San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This line is off, and the value clearly lies with the Houston Texans. The sportsbooks have the Texans as a measly -1.5 home favorite against San Francisco, but let’s break it down. Just last week, Houston was a +3 underdog at Seattle, a team we rank 4th in our power ratings—significantly higher than the 49ers, who sit at a pedestrian 14th. If the Texans were +3 on the road against a superior Seahawks squad, basic math says they’d be at least a 3-point favorite at home against Seattle. This spread is a gift. Houston’s sitting at 2-4, desperate for a win to turn their season around, and their defense is tremendous allowing just 4.9 yards per play (5th) and 274 total yards per game (4th). The offense has sputtered, sure, but they’re facing a 49ers team that’s banged up and average in most key defensive categories. The Niners are 5-7 straight-up in their last 12 road games. Meanwhile, Houston is 7-4 straight-up in their last 11 home games. The Texans are in a must-win spot, with a defense that can suffocate San Francisco’s attack. Grab the -1.5 and ride Houston to a statement victory.

ASA play on: Hornets +4.5 at 76ers, 7:40pm ET - The Charlotte Hornets looked sharp in their season opener, dismantling the Brooklyn Nets 136-117 behind a franchise-record nine players in double figures, including 25 points from Brandon Miller and 20 points with eight assists from LaMelo Ball. Their balanced attack and 53.3% field goal shooting signal a team that's bought into new coach Charles Lee's system early—no injuries to report, and they're riding high heading into Philly. On the flip side, the 76ers' 117-116 thriller over the Celtics was a mirage propped up by unsustainable shooting from Tyrese Maxey (40 points on 13-of-24) and rookie VJ Edgecombe (34 points on 13-of-26), who combined for a ridiculous 26-of-50 from the field. That's 52% efficiency on high volume—well above Maxey's career 45.5% mark or any reasonable rookie baseline for Edgecombe. Expect regression tonight, especially with Charlotte's backcourt (Ball, Tre Mann) primed to hound them. Joel Embiid was a non-factor in his return from knee surgery, logging just 20 minutes with four points on 1-of-9 shooting and visibly limited mobility—no lift on shots, slow recovery on the floor. He's on a strict minutes cap and doesn't look anywhere near MVP form yet, leaving the Sixers thin inside against Charlotte's frontcourt depth (Miles Bridges' 18-11 double-double in the opener). Paul George remains sidelined with a knee issue, thinning the wings further.

#176 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +7.5 over Texas, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET - Texas continues to be vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are just 2-5 ATS and 0-2 ATS as a road favorite. On the other end, MSU has been and continues to be undervalued. They are 6-1 ATS this year and have already beaten a very good Arizona State team here and they took Tennessee to OT. The Vols had 2 defensive TD’s in that game and the Bulldogs still pushed them to overtime where they lost by 7. This will be the 2nd straight road game for the Horns. Last week they traveled to Kentucky, who we have rated as the worst team in the SEC, and squeaked out a 16-13 win in OT. Take a look at the stats in that game. Texas had a total of 179 yards (including the 2 OT’s) and Kentucky, whose offense isn’t great (94th in total offense), had 395 yards. The Horns offense is bad. They rank outside the top 70 in total offense, passing, rushing, and scoring. Their offensive line has been a disaster and QB Manning has been average at best. MSU is coming off a 2 point loss @ Florida last Saturday in a game they outgained the Gators. Their only non-competitive game was @ Texas A&M and that was the week after they came off their OT home loss vs Tennessee and had a number of guys on the shelf with injuries after that one. Their offense has been solid averaging over 400 YPG and 32 PPG. MSU’s defense has been solid holding 5 of their 7 opponents to 23 points or less. This is a huge home game for State while Texas has bigger fish to fry next weekend when they host top 10 Vanderbilt. We think this one stays close and wouldn’t be shocked if the Bulldogs pull the upset.

#123 ASA PLAY ON Baylor +4 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - This is a classic buy low, sell high spot with the 6-1 Bearcats overvalued and the 4-3 Bears undervalued. Baylor has faced the much tougher schedule with Auburn, SMU, ASU, KSU and TCU all on the Bears resume. Cincinnati has won 6 straight games but really had favorable scheduling with most of those wins. UC beat Kansas despite getting outgained 10.9YPP to 7.4YPP, the win against ISU was essentially an even game and their win over UCF was a miracle at best. Central Florida had 413 total yards to 306, 15 less first downs and a time of possession deficit of 19 minutes. Both teams faced Oklahoma State and won convincingly but Baylor had much better numbers against the Cowboys than Cincinnati did. Baylor is putting up 486 total yards per game (11th most) at 6.3YPP with the #1 rated passing offense in college football at 344PYPG. The Bears should have a ton of success in that area of the game as the Bearcats allow 240PYPG (97th). Cincinnati has some great overall numbers too including the #2 yards per play offense but the only good defense they faced was Nebraska’s in the first game of the season and they managed just 17 points and 271 total yards of offense. As we mentioned in the beginning of this analysis, this is a great spot to buy low on Baylor and sell high on Cincinnati.

#141 ASA PLAY ON NC State +6.5 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This game qualifies for our ‘fishy’ game of the week. We have a red hot Pitt team that has won 3 straight, facing a Wolfpack team that has lost 3 in a row and more money and tickets have been bet on Pittsburgh, yet the line has dropped from them being favored by -9.5 to under a TD at -6.5. Pitt has destroyed three teams in Boston College, Florida State and Syracuse but all three of those teams are in a free fall with FSU losing 4 straight, the Cuse 3 in a row and BC on a 6 game skid. Pitt’s coming off a misleading 30-13 win at Syracuse (who was down to a freshman QB) with just 260 total yards of offense against an Orange team that allows 426ypg (105th). The Panthers defensive numbers are good but they’ve faced a bunch of injury riddled offenses including Florida State a few weeks ago. NC State has similar offensive numbers to FSU and the Seminoles put up 415 total yards at 6.6YPP against the Panthers. Pitt also caught FSU coming off a huge game against Miami. The Wolfpack are getting healthy after a bye week and feature an offense that is 48th in total yards per game gained at 6.3YPP (37th). Those numbers come against the 37th toughest schedule in the nation. Defensively the Wolfpack have some weak statistics but take that with a grain of salt considering they’ve faced 4 offenses in the top 35 in terms of total yards per game gained. We are taking the points in this one.