ASA NBA play Denver Nuggets -9 at Houston Rockets, 3:30pm ET - We know one thing for sure in this game…the Nuggets will play to win. Denver is in a must-win situation here as a loss could send them to the playin tournament, whereas a win can get them home court in the first round and the #4 seed. The Rockets are locked into the #2 seed and have sat everyone important the last two games so why would Udoka play his starters here and jeopardize their health? The Rockets reserves have been horrendous defensively the past two games allowing 134 and 140 to the two Los Angeles teams. The Clippers shot 53% overall and 51% from Deep, the Lakers shot 61% and 51% against the Rockets second unit. Today the Rockets face the best shooting team in the league of the Nuggets who hit 50.6% overall and 37.6% from the 3PT line (6th best). Granted this is an inflated line with the Nuggets on the road laying nearly double-digits but we at least know they’ll play hard and have to bet the Rockets rest everyone, even though their starters have not been released for this game yet.

ASA NHL LA Kings -1.5 vs. Colorado Avalanche - 4pm ET - The Kings are poised to cover the -1.5 spread against the Avalanche. Colorado, locked into third in the Central, has little to play for, likely resting key players. Meanwhile, LA is chasing home-ice advantage for the playoffs, boasting a stellar 30-9 home record—the NHL’s best. The Kings also have extra motivation after dropping both prior games to the Avs this season. In net, Colorado’s Blackwood has faltered, posting a 1-3 record and allowing 12 goals over his last four starts. LA’s Kemper, however, is in top form, winning 7 of his last 9 starts with a 1.4 GAA across his last 10. Expect the Kings to dominate at home.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs Memphis Grizzlies, 9pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as they battle for better positioning in the Western Conference. Memphis is at a scheduling disadvantage here having played a monster game last night against the T’Wolves. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, but the 3rd game in four nights for the Grizz. Memphis has been surprisingly good when playing without rest, but this will be in altitude in Denver. Ironically both teams are considered to be contenders in the West and both recently fired their head coaches. Denver is off a win in Sacramento on Wednesday and looked much better after 4 straight losses. The Nugs are 25-15 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.7ppg. Denver clearly has a match up advantage here as they’ve won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Grizz including 5 straight home wins. Lay it with Denver.

ASA NBA play on Toronto Raptors +11.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30pm ET - Somebody forgot to tell the Raptors that their season was over with. This young roster continues to play hard with a 6-3 SU record in their last nine games. The biggest indicator that this team hasn’t quit is their defensive statistics. The Raptors have the 3rd best Defensive Rating over the past 15 games, 1st in the last ten. The offensive numbers aren’t great, but they don’t have to be against a Mavs defense that is 18th in opponents FG% defense, 21st defending the 3-point line. Even with their season on the line in recent weeks this Mavs D ranks 16th in the league in DNR over the past 10 games. Dallas was recently in a must-win situation against a similar Nets team at home and favored by 10-points. They lost that game outright. In fact, Dallas is 0-3 ATS their last three games when favored by -6.5 or more points. Toronto is on a 4-1 ATS winning streak on the road and we trust they’ll compete against the Mavs tonight.

ASA NHL play on LA Kings -1.5 -125 vs. Anaheim Ducks, 10pm ET - We like the Kings to smack the Ducks by at least two goals (-1.5 spread) on Thursday night. Kuemper’s been a beast in net, rocking a 1.40 GAA and .940 save percentage since March, and he’s kept every game tight—two or fewer goals allowed in his last 14 starts. Dostal’s been decent for Anaheim, but his 3.52 GAA and .885 save percentage over his last six games don’t bode well, especially with the Ducks’ shaky D giving up over 31 shots a night. Plus, LA’s owned this matchup, winning 8 of the last 10. The Kings have one of the best home ice advantages in hockey with a 29-5-4 record and 3 of their last four games have been decided by multiple goals. With Anaheim off a game last night (1-4 last 5 without rest) it's going to be tough to get back up for this California showdown. The Kings did lose the last meeting (in the shootout) 2-1 in early February. Perfect spot for Revenge!

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 8:10pm ET - This is an interesting line considering the Bulls were +5 in Miami in early March, which should have them favored here, but yet they find themselves a home dog. Chicago did have a game last night against Cleveland, but the Bulls rested 103 of their 117-points per game with White, Giddy, Vucevic, Huerter and Ball all sitting in preparation for this game. This game has huge playoff implications with these two teams sitting 9th and 10th in the Eastern Conference with identical 36-43 records. The winner will have the leg-up in gaining in home court for that 1 game play scenario. Miami is 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 1-2 in their last three games. Chicago is also 7-3 SU in their last ten games, 3-1 in their last four games with the loss last night in Cleveland. In each team's last 15 games the Bulls have the 9th best Net Rating at +4.5, the Heat are 13th at +2.6. Miami has better overall defensive statistics for the season, but the Bulls Defensive Net rating over their last 15 games of 113.3 is 12th best in the league compared to Miami at 20th. We are betting value here with the home team Bulls.

ASA play on LA Clippers -12.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 10:40pm ET - The Clippers are hot right now, having won 14 of 17, while covering 12 of their last 13 and 6 of their last 7. Los Angeles has also covered 9 of their last twelve at home. The Spurs' longshot playoff hopes have ended after losing seven of their last eight games. Just how good are the Clippers playing right now you ask? LA has the 2nd best Net rating in the NBA at +15.0 in their last five games with a 4-1 SU record. In their last 10 games they are +15.7 in Net rating with an 8-2 record and an average plus/minus of +15.0ppg. San Antonio is 3-7 SU in their last ten games with a minus -6.0ppg differential. Five of the Spurs’ last seven losses have come by double-digits. The Clippers are in a heated race for a better playoff position, and they have 3 HUGE games on deck against other playoff teams which makes this game a high priority. Lay the points.

#224205 ASA PLAY ON Real Madrid +0.50 (-125) at Arsenal, Tuesday at 3 PM ET - Arsenal seems a bit over-valued here just because they are at home. They are missing some key players here and that makes this spot even better for Real Madrid. We were already looking the way of the visitors in this 1st Leg battle as Real Madrid is off a loss. They lost 2 to 1 at home versus Valencia in La Liga action and could have been guilty of looking ahead to this big Champions League battle. Real Madrid has scored 10 goals in last 4 games. Arsenal has scored only 7 goals in last 5 games. This means even more value with the +0.5 goal at a very fair price here. The odds favor the visitors earning at least a draw in this one. We will take Real Madrid on the goal line in this one.

#702 ASA PLAY ON Houston +1.5 over Florida, Monday at 8:50 PM ET - We think the better team is the dog here and we’ll grab the Cougars in this match up. What a run they’ve had beating Gonzaga, Purdue, Tennessee, and Duke in the NCAA, all top 15 teams per KenPom and 3 of those were top 8 teams. Houston beat the best team in the country (per KenPom) on Saturday holding the 4th best shooting team in the nation a full 10% below their season average (Duke shot 40% vs Houston). Duke was averaging 1.30 PPP (#1 in the country) and the Cougars D (ranked #1 in efficiency) held the Devils to only 1.10 PPP. The Florida offense is very good as well, but they don’t shoot it nearly as well as Duke ranking outside the top 50 in FG% and outside the top 90 in 3 point FG%. The Gators offense averaged only 1.10 PPP vs Auburn on Saturday and they’ve now been held below their season PPP average in 5 of their last 6 games. Now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve faced this season. The Gators have had a problem with turnovers offensively this season, including in the NCAA tourney where they coughed it up 18%, 18%, 23%, 17% and 22% of their possessions in their 5 NCAA tourney games. None of the defensive units they’ve faced create turnovers like this Houston team does (24th nationally). In a close game, those extra possessions for Houston could be the difference. On the other end of the court, the Cougs can shoot it. It’s not discussed as often as their defense, but this team ranks #1 in the nation hitting 40% of their triples. They faced 2 top 5 defenses in their last 2 games (Duke & Tennessee) and made 19 of their 47 triples (40.4%) vs those 2 teams. They averaged 1.17 PPP and 1.15 PPP in those 2 games vs defenses (both top 5 defensive efficiency) that are both rated higher than this Florida team. The Gators often have a positive shot volume due to their offensive rebounding (5th in the country) but we feel that will be offset by the Cougars who are great on the offensive glass as well (10th in the country). This Houston team will again be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they’ve been tabbed an underdog again in the National Championship game after getting points in the Final 4 as well. They’ve only been an underdog twice since the start of the 2022 season and won both of those games outright (vs Duke & Kansas). They have won 18 straight games, 3 of their 4 losses this season have come in OT, and they have 1 loss since December 7th and that was in OT by 1 point vs a very good Texas Tech team. We like the coaching match up as well with veteran Kelvin Sampson (coaching in his 51st NCAA tourney game) vs newcomer Todd Golden (coaching in his 8th NCAA tourney game). Sampson outcoached Jon Sheyer and Duke on Saturday and we like his chances to do the same on Monday night. Let’s take Houston to win it all.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:10pm ET - Both teams have plenty to play for with playoff positioning on the line. Denver is the more desperate though as they could essentially fall all the way to 8th in the West and be in the play in games. Obviously a top 4 seed assures them of home court in the first round which is critical. Denver has the best home court in the NBA dating back to the start of the 2022 season with a 106-33 SU record. They’ve won those games by an average of +8.1ppg. While we are at it, the Nuggets are also 63-29 SU off a loss dating back to 2022. The Nugs have lost 3 in a row but two of those came against the Wolves and Warriors who are both surging in the West. On paper it looks like Indiana is coming alive for a strong postseason push but the numbers are a bit deceiving. The Pacers have been at home for 8 of their last ten games and 5 of those came against a few of the worst teams in the NBA (Utah, Charlotte, Nets 2x, and Wizards). Indiana has been average on the road this season with an 18-20 SU record, 17-22 ATS. The offensive and defensive numbers are pretty similar for each team and both have key injuries with Siakam out for the Pacers and Murray out for Denver. Historically, Denver has dominated the Pacers with 9 straight wins and given the circumstances we like them to make it 10 in a row by a big margin.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns +9.5 at NY Knicks, 7:10pm ET - The Knicks are in a tough scheduling situation here as they are coming off a game in Atlanta yesterday and have a HUGE game on deck against the Celtics. New York is basically locked into the 3 seed in the East barring a disastrous finish by them and a miraculous one by the Pacers. Phoenix on the other hand is in full-blown desperation time right now sitting 11th in West, two games behind the Kings. New York has been terrible this season when playing without rest with a 2-11 ATS record. Largely due to coach Thibs short rotation which he has been rightly criticized for in the past. The Knicks have a negative differential of minus -5.5ppg when playing the second night of a back-to-back. New York is 19-18-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of plus +7.1ppg. The Suns have lost 5 straight games but two of those came against the Celtics, one versus the Bucks and one each to Houston and Minnesota. Phoenix is the 8th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 48% and rank 3rd in 3PT% at 38.3%. The Knicks defense isn’t what it used to be, ranking 23rd in opponents FG% and 27th in 3PT% D. Granted, the Suns defensive numbers look eerily similar to the Knicks as does New York’s offense compared to the Suns, but there isn’t a big enough discrepancy to lay nearly double-digits. Phoenix is 12-27 SU away this season but their average MOV in those games is -5.5ppg which clearly gets us a cover.

#960 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Miami Marlins, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - As mentioned here yesterday in our write-up on Atlanta, a 10-0 winner to open this series, the Braves were 0-7 to start the season but all their games were on the road and they faced the Padres and Dodgers!  Those are two very tough teams and, in fact, prior to yesterday's action they were a combined 15-0 so far this season!  The Braves in this series are now finally facing a weaker team and plus this is Atlanta's first home series of the season.  Seeing Atlanta, after starting this season with an 0-7 record, again favored by more than a -200 price might surprise some but we fully expected this.  Of course the Braves are much better than their record shows plus they have a solid pitching edge again here.  Cal Quantrill gets the start for the Marlins and he is not the same pitcher he was in his first few years with Cleveland.  In his final season in Cleveland in 2023, he had a 5.24 ERA and then he followed that with a 4.98 ERA with Colorado last season.  Now with his 3rd team in 3 years, Quantrill began his season with a very ugly outing plus now is facing a Braves team that got its swagger back with last night's huge win at home.  AJ Smith-Shawver starts for the Braves here and, though he has limited MLB experience, he has been tough to hit with a .205 opponents batting average in his 8 appearances (7 starts) at the MLB level.  In his 57 career minor league starts he also has allowed only a .200 batting average as well so this is a guy with a solid repertoire of pitches.  As we mentioned yesterday, if you look at stats so far this season you will see that Miami has the better numbers but, entering this season the Marlins were projected to lose about 100 games this season while the Braves had a season win total that projected them to only lose about 59 games!  The Braves, just like yesterday, take advantage of home field and a starting pitching edge and they get another much needed win.  We have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 with the run line as we project another home blowout here!

ASA play on Dallas Mavericks +10.5 at LA Clippers, 10:30pm ET - This line is clearly inflated with the recent success of the Clippers so let’s bet value with the Mavericks. This number should be -7.5 at the most and a great comparison is what the Clippers were favored by recently at home against the 17-win Hornets of -13.5. Dallas was also recently +7 at Orlando without Gafford or Washington in the lineup and Anthony Davis was still working back into game-shape. The Mavs health is obviously key and tonight they have all three of the previously mentioned players available for this game against the Clippers. AD had a monster 34-points, 15 rebounds and 5 block game against Atlanta. We are not ignoring the fact that the Clippers have won and covered 8 of their last ten games, but again that has influenced the number on this game, giving us value with the dog. Both have plenty to play for as they fight for better playoff positioning. Dallas has covered 5 of the last seven meetings with the Clippers including 2 straight in Los Angeles.

#674 ASA PLAY ON UC Irvine -3.5 over Chattanooga, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We faded UCI on Tuesday vs a very good UNT team and they showed some serious resolve getting down 24-9 early and battling back for a 69-67 win.  We were prepared to side with either UCI or UNT in this game no matter who they played if the line was fair.  We’re actually getting a cheap line at -3.5 as our power ratings have Irvine as a 5 point favorite on a neutral.  Chattanooga was impressive in their win on Tuesday over Loyola but they now run into a serious defense for the first time in NIT play.  They shot 52% from the field and 43% from deep vs a Rambler defense that ranks 98th in efficiency.  All 4 teams that the Mocs have faced were ranked 98th or lower in defensive efficiency and now they face a UCI defense that ranks 21st in the nation in that metric.  The best defense in the SoCon was ETSU ranked 131st so this Chattanooga offense hasn’t faced a top 98 defense since facing Indiana back on December 21st.  They had only 2 games this season (out of 37) where they faced a defense ranked in the top 90 and lost both.  Defensively, the Moccasins are at a huge disadvantage here ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  Both offenses shoot the ball well overall and from 3 and while Chattanooga has the better numbers, that surely has something to do with the easy defensive slate of opponents they faced this season.  In yesterday’s win, Irvine shot 50% vs a UNT defense that ranked in the top 35 in eFG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed.  We have no doubt UCI’s offense will have success vs a porous Moc’s defense.  UCI should also have a decent advantage on the boards vs this small Chattanooga team that is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the nation.  The Anteaters should also have an advantage at the FT line where they shoot 80% as a team and they get there a lot (21st nationally in made FT’s per game).  On the other end, UCI fouls very little (7th in FT attempts by opponents) so it will be tough for the Mocs to keep up at the charity stripe.  Irvine has been the better team all year (+30 spots in KenPom) and we’ll lay it in the NIT Championship game.

ASA play on Portland Trailblazers -4.5 at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 pm ET - The Raptors are officially eliminated from the playoffs and are in ‘tank’ mode tonight against the Blazers. Understand, tanking is not asking your players to lose, it’s management telling coaches to sit players for ‘rest’. Tonight’s injury list tonight includes more than half their roster and 4 of five starters. Don’t be misled by the Raptors 4-1 SU run in their last five games as the wins came against Washington, Charlotte, Brooklyn and Philly, the four worst teams in the Eastern Conference. Portland has an outside shot at getting into the playoffs with 4 of their final six games coming against teams with sub .500 records. The Blazers are coming off a solid 14-point win over the Hawks in Atlanta on Tuesday with advantages in rebounding, shooting and had less turnovers. The Raptors have been a solid rebounding team all season long but tonight they’ll be without 3 of their top four rebounders so expect the Blazers to dominate the glass and second-chance baskets. Don’t be intimidated by the fact the Blazers are a road chalk here as they’ve covered 4 of five this season in that role with an average +/- of +10.1ppg.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati -5.5 over UCF, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 Big 12 foes met once this season and Cincy won by 10 at UCF. A few things that stood out in that game was the fact the Bearcats dominated inside making 33 of their 49 two point attempts (67%) which should take place again here as the Golden Knights are 243rd defending inside the arc. Secondly, UCF turned the ball over at a 21% rate in that home loss and we expect a solid advantage for Cincy in the turnover department again as they rank much higher offensive (lower turnover rate) and defensively (higher turnover rate). Lastly, UCF’s leading scorer in that game (and on the season) was Hall with 23 points and he has opted out of this tournament. The Knights beat Oregon State 76-75 yesterday which wasn’t overly impressive as OSU played that game without their 3 top scorers who combine to average 41 PPG on the season. The Beavers put up 75 points on 47% shooting despite missing their 3 best offensive players which is a huge concern. UCF’s defense has been poor all season (15th out of 16 Big 12 teams in defensive efficiency) and allowed Cincinnati to put up 93 points (their 2nd highest point total of the season) on 1.22 PPP in their lone meeting. The Bearcats defense is far superior (20th nationally in defensive efficiency) and on offense they are the better shooting team at 45% (173rd in the country) compared to UCF’s 42% (323rd). Central Florida has a negative FG% differential, 3 point FG% differential and PPG differential while the Bearcats are positive in all of those stats. We like Cincinnati here.

ASA play on Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 8:40pm ET - Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, so each has plenty to play for. Both teams had their season’s derailed by injuries this season, but the Mavs are currently the more intact roster, at home and off a loss. Dallas had won 4 of five games before they laid an egg against the Nets last time out. We like them to bounce back here against a Hawks team coming off a home game last night and playing their 3rd in four nights. The Mavs got Daniel Gafford back last game and also had Anthony Davis for 28 minutes. We expect both to play here considering they had a day off prior to this game. The Hawks are 7-7 ATS this season when playing without rest, 5-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage. Atlanta has struggled against the Western Conference this season with an 11-17 ATS record and a negative differential in those games of minus -7.3ppg. Dallas has a slightly above .500 home record as a favorite this season of 11-10 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +8.0ppg. These teams have similar EDiff ratings for the season and in their most recent 5 games, but again the Mavs are getting healthy. Dallas should knock down plenty of open looks with their 9th best team FG% facing a Hawks defense that ranks 29th in the NBA in FG% defense. The Mavs are also the 13th best 3PT shooting team in the league, the Hawks rank 28th in 3PT% D. Atlanta would typically enjoy a rebounding advantage in this matchup but with Gafford and Davis in the lineup they won’t have that luxury. Easy call for a blowout win here by Dallas.

#954 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - Off last night's 6-1 win, we come right back with the same pick here. The Braves are now 0-5 on the season while the Dodgers are already 6-0 on the season. We again will lay the 1.5 runs on the run line which is available for plus money as of very early Tuesday morning.  Great value here with the Dodgers having scored an average of 5 runs per game (not including the extra innings runs in an 8-5 win) and the Braves averaging only 1.7 runs per game and coming into this one having scored a total of just 1 run in the last 3 games. The Dodgers are the team that is projected to be the most dominant in the majors this season and we look for LA to roll again!  The Dodgers have remained in Southern California all this time since returning from the opening series in Japan that took place over a week and a half ago as they also played some extended spring training games against the Angels before their 3-game sweep of the Tigers here.  They are rolling and it continues!  Atlanta's Sale is a solid veteran pitcher but is unlikely to work deep into this game.  Dustin May is back for the Dodgers and had a solid spring and looks poised to return to top form.  He has held hitters to a .206 batting average in his career.  While LA does not have the big starting pitching edge they had yesterday, their bullpen ERA is 2.37 this season while the Braves pen has a 6.19 ERA.  Couple that with the Dodgers swinging the bats much better than the Braves too so far this season and we have no hesitation in again laying the 1.5 with the run line as we project another blowout here!

ASA NHL play on Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5 goals +145 vs. Nashville Predators, 7pm ET - Columbus is chasing a Wild Card spot in the East with time running out on the regular season. The Blue Jackets are 2-1 in their last 3 games with the most recent being a 2-3 loss to Ottawa. Nashville on the other hand has been officially eliminated from the Playoffs this season. The Predators are 2-8 SU their last nine games with a negative total goal differential of minus -10 total goals. Preds center Colton Sissons is out for tonight along with several others being questionable on the second night of a back-to-back. Nashville is 4-18 as a road dog this season -1185, Columbus is rarely a home favorite, but they are 5-3 in that role +55. When the Preds start goaltender Juuse Saros they are 19-34 this season, when the Blue Jackets start Merzlikins they are 24-24. Nashville is 9-23-5 on the road this season, Columbus is 21-9-5 at home. Scheduling is certainly a factor here as the Preds are 3-9 in the second night of a back-to-back this season with a total goal differential of minus -19 goals.

#650 ASA PLAY ON Butler Pick'em over Utah, Monday at 3 PM ET - Our power ratings have Butler a few spots ahead of Utah and a 1 point favorite which is dead on with what the oddsmakers believe as well.  However, we think the Bulldogs hold some key advantages which will be the difference in this game.  First of all, Utah bad FT shooting team and in what is expected to be a tight game, that can play a huge factor.  The Utes make less than 64% of their FT’s on the season (357th out of 364 teams) and on top of that they won’t get their very often as Butler fouls very little.  Bulldog opponents have scored only 13.5% of their points from the FT line this season which is the 6th lowest mark in college basketball.  So when Utah gets there, they better take advantage and they’ve proven throughout the season they struggle at doing that.  Butler, on the other hand, hits just over 74% of their FT’s and they get there a decent amount with almost 21% of their points come from the charity stripe.  They should have a solid advantage from the FT line as well as from beyond the arc.  Both teams rely fairly heavily on making 3’s (114th and 115th in percentage of points from 3) but the Bulldogs are simply better at shooting it and defending it.  They rank 43rd in the country in 3 point FG% and 49th in the country in opponents 3 point FG%.  Utah ranks 234th and 174th respectively in those 2 key stats.  Neither team has been great when away from home but the Utes have been worse with only 1 road win (road or neutral) the entire season.  They shoot less than 40% overall away from home, less than 30% from 3 and average only 64 PPG while allowed 78 PPG.  Butler has 4 road/neutral site wins on the year and much more stable right now with long time solid head coach Thad Matta at the helm.  Utah, on the other hand, just hired a new head coach, Alex Jensen, but he is on the Dallas Mavs coach staff until the end of the season while this year’s interim and now soon to be leaving, head coach Josh Eilert will be coaching in this tourney.  We like Butler to win this one on Monday afternoon.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -2 at Phoenix Suns, 9pm ET - This number is a bargain as we get a peaking Houston Rockets team against a Suns team that is 11th in the West and has underachieved all season long. Most casual fans don’t realize the Rockets have vaulted to the 2nd seed in the Western Conference with a 10-1 SU winning streak and a healthy roster. Phoenix is in full desperation mode to make the playoffs yet are just 5-5 SU their last ten games. If we take a closer look at each teams last ten games, we find the Rockets have a Net Rating of +8.5, the Suns NR is +0.9. The big separator between these two teams is the defense as the Rockets have the 11th best Defensive Net rating this season, the Suns are 27th. Houston has already beaten this team twice this season by +8 and +7 and we expect a similar win on Sunday in Phoenix. The Rockets are 27-17 SU (+5.1ppg) against other Western Conference opponents this season, the Suns are 21-16 SU (-1.7ppg). Phoenix has been a home underdog just 11 times this season and they’ve lost those games by an average of -5.1ppg going 5-6 SU. Houston is 16-4 SU as a road chalk, +9.0ppg. Take Houston here.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks -4 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:10PM ET - We are going to bet line value with the Bucks minus the short number against the Hawks today in a key Eastern Conference showdown. The Bucks sit 6th in the East, the Hawks are currently 8th so this game has seeding implications for both teams. Milwaukee is coming off a home loss so we expect a concentrated effort here against a Hawks team playing their 3rd straight on the road. These same two teams met in Atlanta earlier this month and the Bucks were favored by -5-points in the Hawks building and are now laying less than that at home. Atlanta isn’t a great shooting team to begin with at 46.9% overall (14th)and 35.6% from Deep (18th) and will struggle against this Bucks defense. Milwaukee has the 4th best FG% defense overall and the 6th best against the 3-pointers. Conversely, the Bucks are 5th in team FG% and 3rd in 3PT% while the Hawks defense is 28th in opponents FG% and 27th in 3PT% defense. The Bucks have had a few games to adjust to life without Dame Lillard and should get this home win by double-digits.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Duke -6.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET - We went against Bama on Thursday and they went crazy.  They took 66 total shots from the field and a ridiculous 51 of those were from 3.  They made 25 triples (49%) which set the NCAA tourney record.  While the Crimson Tide are a solid 3 point shooting team, they aren’t great ranking 75th nationally.  We just don’t see that as a sustainable situation here vs a Duke defense that 5th nationally in efficiency (BYU was 82nd defensively).  If the Tide need to rely a huge number of 3’s again, they’re probably in trouble.  Duke dominated Arizona more than the 100-93 final score.  They led by 19 in the 2nd half before the Cats made a final push.  The Devils shot the 3 well (made 11 triples) but dominated at the rim hitting 61% of their shots inside the arc and now facing Bama defense that isn’t great defensively inside.  Duke was extremely efficient (1.41 PPP) vs a Arizona defense that compares favorably to this Alabama defense (35th and 27th respectively in defensive efficiency).  The Blue Devils were much more well rounded on offense Thursday taking 66 shots but only 19 from deep so they aren’t completely reliant on making 3’s compared to the Tide.  Duke has been the better team all season long and is the only team in the country in the top 5 both offense and defense efficiency wise.  They are in the top 10 in the country in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%, shoot FT’s better (79% to 72%), turn the ball over less (16th to 143rd for Bama), and they are the much better defensive rebounding team limiting 2nd chance points.  They had a huge lead vs a very good Arizona team and almost blew it.  We don’t think that happens in back to back games.  Lay it with Duke.

#638 ASA PLAY ON Houston -8 over Purdue, Friday at 10 PM ET - The only “sort of” advantage Purdue has in this game is the fact it’s being played in Indianapolis which is 70 miles from their campus. However, this game is being played in Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Colts, and not at Gainbridge Fieldhouse (home of the Pacers) where the Big 10 tourney was located. So beyond the PU fanbase, that mitigates the home court as neither team has played here this season. The Boilers offense is predicated on the pick n roll with PG Smith and Kaufman-Renn but the problem is, Houston is by far the best PnR defense in the country. Their hard aggressive hedge with long athletes makes is very tough on opposing offenses that rely in PnR. Purdue is not great at protecting the ball and in fact they turned it over a whopping 28% of the time vs McNeese State in the round of 32. That would normally be lights out, however PU did hit 11 triples and gather 41% of their missed shots to counteract the turnovers. That won’t happen here. They will turn the ball over (Houston 18th in the nation at creating turnovers) but the Cougs are very good on the glass AND they will capitalize on the turnovers, something McNeese did not do posting a 0.91 PPP number. On the other end, Purdue’s 2 point defense is very poor (341st nationally) but they also allow a lot of 3 points attempts (262nd). That’s bad news facing a Houston offense that ranks #1 in the nation hitting 40% of their triples. Purdue has had the benefit of facing High Point and McNeese State (2 double digit seeds) to get to this point. Houston just faced vastly underseeded Gonzaga (top 10 team per KenPom) and controlled the entire game never trailing and leading by as much as 14 points. They led by 11 with only a few minutes remaining when the Zags made a late push losing by 5. Houston has lost ONE game since December 1st and that was in OT vs a very good Texas Tech team that is also in the Sweet 16. The Cougs 4 losses have all come by 5 points or less and 2 were in OT so conceivably their 31-4 record could be better. They are the much better team across the board in this game and we’ll lay it.

ASA play on LA Lakers -3 vs. Chicago Bulls, 8pm ET

We are not huge ‘revenge’ angle bettors but do make an occasional exception when the right situation presents itself. Revenge will never be the driving decision behind a wager but it does play a small role in tonight’s bet. The Lakers and Bulls just met in LA 5 days ago with the Lakers favored by -10.5 points. Chicago rolled the Lakers 146-115 on 58% shooting overall and 46% from Deep. The Bulls are off a successful 4-2 road trip and back home off a win in Denver (no Jokic) on Monday. The Lakers are coming off a last second tip-in win over the Pacers last night and we like them to build on that momentum in the Windy City tonight. Chicago is just 13-22 SU with an average differential of minus -4.5ppg at home and let’s face it, there will be more fans supporting LeBron and Luka tonight than the Bulls.

#627 ASA PLAY ON BYU +5.5 over Alabama, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We think BYU has a very solid chance at winning this game outright and we like the points as a cushion if they do not. The Cougs are on quite a roll winning 11 of their last 12 games with their only loss during that stretch coming at the hands of Houston with impressive wins vs Wisconsin, Arizona, Iowa State, and Kansas (blowout). Since February 1st, BYU is ranked as the 4th best team in the country per Bart Torvik behind only Duke, Houston, and Florida. The Cougars struggle with turnovers offensively when they face aggressive defenses that create havoc. That won’t be the case here as Bama simply doesn’t have a defense that creates turnovers (352nd nationally). If we look at their tourney run (Big 12 and NCAA) the BYU offense has put up 1.23 PPP (vs VCU), 1.28 PPP (vs Wisconsin), and 1.38 PPP (vs Iowa State), all teams that rank in the top 27 in defensive efficiency. Their lone loss in their tourney run was vs Houston who is the best defense in the country (#1 in efficiency) while creating a lot of turnovers (18th nationally). Bama’s defense rates behind all 4 of the BYU’s opponents listed above and since February 1st, the Tide rank outside the top 100 in eFG% defense, 2 point FG% allowed, and defensive rebounding. BYU’s defense isn’t great either so this will come down to who can consistently make shots and mainly 3’s as both rely pretty heavily on arc offense. The fact is, BYU has the better eFG% and 3 point FG% (28th nationally to 116th for Bama). We actually trust BYU’s offense more in this match up as they have a better chance to get hot and stay hot. We mentioned they’ve averaged at least 1.23 PPP in 3 of their last 4 games while Alabama’s offense hasn’t hit 1.20 PPP in any of their last 4 games (SEC and NCAA tourneys). BYU continues to be undervalued as they won outright and covered 5 of the last 6 when tabbed a dog. Let’s take the points here in a game that BYU can absolutely win.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns +5 vs. Boston Celtics, 10:10 pm ET - Have the Suns finally flipped the switch and decided to try and play in the postseason? It sure looks like it with a 5-1 run in their last six games. The Suns have won 4 straight with three quality wins over the Bulls (playing well right now), the Cavaliers and Bucks. In that 5 game stretch the Suns have the 6th best Net Rating in the NBA at +9.1. The Celtics are in the midst of a long 6 game West Coast road trip with 3 straight wins at Utah, Portland and Sacramento. There is a good chance the Celtics sit Tatum tonight with the #2 seed in the East all but locked up. Comparing each teams last 5 games we find very similar numbers with the Celtics 124.9 Offensive Net rating versus the Suns 121.5. The Defensive numbers are also close with the Celtics 112.1 DNR and the Suns at 112.4. The difference is the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule in that 5 game span. The motivated Suns fighting to get into the playoffs will find a way to keep this game close throughout and may even win outright. Grab the points.

ASA play on San Antonio Spurs +10.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - This is a great spot to fade the Pistons and back the Spurs. Detroit is coming off a home win over the Pelicans and have a HUGE game looming against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday. The Pistons will be without Tim Hardaway Jr tonight and could sit Cade Cunningham again, who has a sore calf and could get 5 full days of rest before the playoffs. Detroit is a fun up-and-coming team, but this is a big ask for them to cover double-digits at home in this situation. The Pistons are 16-18-1 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of 1.0ppg. They are 6-11 ATS as home favorites. San Antonio was heavily overpriced for most of the season with Wemby in the lineup which led to a 14-20 ATS road record. But they were competitive away from home with an average point differential of only -3.3ppg. You may be shocked to know that the Spurs have the best Offensive Net rating over the last 10 games in the NBA. Granted the Pistons have great overall numbers on the season but even looking at that 10-game span for both teams we see the Pistons Net Rating of 5.4 isn’t much better than the Spurs of 0.6. We like the Spurs to keep this game close throughout.

ASA NHL play on Utah Hockey Clubs -1.5 goals +155 vs Detroit Red Wings, 9 pm ET - The Red Wings are straight-up spiraling, just 2 wins in their last 11 games. That’s a one-way ticket to the NHL basement, and their playoff dreams in the East are pretty much toast. They’ve been bouncing around the country on this weird road trip, first getting smoked 4-1 in Washington, then torched 6-3 in Vegas. Detroit’s on the ropes, and their big deadline pickup, Petr Mrazek, ain’t saving the day. Dude stopped just 22 of 26 shots against the Caps—yikes. Flashback to February with Chicago, where he was rocking a brutal 5.11 GAA over four starts. Not exactly inspiring confidence. On the flip side, Utah’s still lurking around the edges of the West playoff race. They’re coming off back-to-back home dubs at the Delta Center, dropping 11 goals total on the Sabres and Lightning. So, here’s the play: take Utah on the puck line. Four of their last five wins were by 2+ goals, and Detroit’s been a mess—dropping 8 of their last 10, with six of those losses by 2 or more. Oh, and the last time these two squared off? Utah took it 4-2 and peppered the Wings with 40 shots to Detroit’s measly 19.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -7.5 over Colorado State, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - We’ve documented the Mountain West teams struggles historically in the NCAA tourney including dogs hitting less than 30% ATS dating back to 2001. The MWC teams are 2-2 SU and ATS so far in this tourney and their historical struggles are not the reason for this play but we mention it. We were on Maryland on Friday when it seemed the whole world was on Grand Canyon. The Terps took care of business winning 81-49 as 10 point favorites. This Maryland team is really good and underrated right now. They are the 2nd highest rated team in the Big 10 per KenPom and that conference is showing their dominance so far in the NCAA tourney. They finished 15-7 in the Big 10 however all 7 of those losses came by 6 points or less so the Terps were really close to having a fantastic conference season. They are 1 of 7 teams in the country that rank in the top 22 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Maryland’s starting 5 is as good as any in the Big 10 and maybe the country with all 5 averaging between 12 & 16 PPG. They don’t turn the ball over (21st in offensive turnover rate) and hit their 3’s at a high level (26th in 3 point FG%). This team is very complete. We appreciate CSU’s 11 game winning streak but they’ve only played 2 NCAA teams during that stretch. They topped MWC foe Utah State, who lost by 25 points in the opening round vs UCLA, and them beat Memphis in round 1. Their win over the Tigers wasn’t surprising as CSU was favored despite being a lower seed. That’s because Memphis was drastically overseeded and playing without one of the top players and point guard Tyrese Hunter (14 PPG). The Tigers were a 5 seed but had 14 teams ranked higher than them in KenPom that received lower seeds to give you an idea of how overrated they were. Maryland has the better offensive and defensive efficiency, better rebounding team, turn the ball over at a lower rate, and shoot the 3 at a higher percentage. We like the Terps to cover and advance.

#824 ASA PLAY ON Houston -5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 8:40 pm et - We were hoping for this match up in the round of 32 but weren’t sure the overhyped Zags would get by Georgia in the first round. We were on UGA in that game and it wasn’t pretty. The Bulldogs got down 27-3 out of the gate, because of some scorching shooting by Gonzaga along with a putrid offensive effort on their part (19% from 3). Zags shot 60% from 3 in the game and averaged 1.25 PPP but now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve seen this season by far (#2 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing 0.87 PPP). The only other top 10 type defense they faced this year was St Mary’s and they lost 2 of those games and averaged only 61 PPG. Thus we don’t expect a repeat offensive performance on Saturday. Houston rolled as well in their first round winning by 38 points so both should be rested. The Cougs played in the much tougher Big 12, went 22-1 (regular season + tourney) and their only loss was in OT to a very good Texas Tech team (3 seed in the Dance). Meanwhile Gonzaga lost 4 games in the weak WCC and 8 games overall, twice as many losses as Houston despite the much easier schedule. Houston was an impressive 14-3 in Quad 1 games this year and if we throw in Quad 2 they were 20-4 overall vs their higher level opponents. Gonzaga was 5-5 vs Quad 1 and 10-8 vs Quad 1 & 2. Where Houston has really improved this year is shooting the ball where they are shooting the 3 at 40% which is 4th best in the nation while the Zags rank outside the top 100 from beyond the arc. The Bulldogs need to score inside (they take very few 3’s) but the problem is Houston’s defense ranks 4th nationally defending inside the arc. We think Gonzaga is getting way too much love and now they face the best team they’ve seen this season by a wide margin. This number is too short. Take Houston.

#783 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma +5.5 over UConn, Friday a 9:25 PM ET - Too many points here for 2 teams we have power rated almost dead even.  UConn is obviously getting respect for their back to back National Championships but this team is nowhere near the caliber of those 2 teams.  This team is ranked 34th per KenPom while those 2 were #1.  The Huskies are solid offensively but their defense simply isn’t very good this year, barely ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency.  The only teams in the Dance that have a worse defensive efficiency than UConn are all seeded 10th or lower.  They were 14-6 in Big East regular season play but 9 of those wins were by 8 points or fewer or in OT.  The Sooners have a very good offense averaging 79 PPG and shooting inside the top 35 nationally both eFG% and 3 point FG%.  They should be able to take advantage of a Connecticut defense that struggles to defend the arc (257th).  They also hit 80% of their FT’s and UConn fouls a lot with 23% of their opponent’s points coming from the stripe (17th most in the country).  On the other end OU defends the arc very well (20th) and they have the better overall defensive efficiency.  Down the stretch the Sooners were playing quite well beating tourney teams Miss State, Georgia. Texas and Missouri.  Their losses down the stretch were all tight losing to Kentucky by 1 point twice and Ole Miss by 3 points.  Oklahoma has covered 7 in a row as a dog winning 4 of those outright.  This will be a battle and we’ll take the points.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -5.5 at Miami Heat, 8pm ET - The Houston Rockets are a solid bet against the struggling Miami Heat tonight in South Beach. Houston is riding an eight-game winning streak, seven by 7+ points, while Miami has dropped nine straight, with six of those losses coming by five or more points. The Rockets’ season-long Net Rating of +4.7 far outpaces the Heat’s -1.9, and the gap widens when looking at the last 10 games—Houston ranks 5th with a +9.0 Net Rating, while Miami sits at 27th with a -9.1. Houston’s elite defense, ranking 4th in field goal percentage allowed and 8th in Defensive Efficiency, should stifle a slumping Heat offense that ranks 21st in FG% overall, 17th in 3PT% and has the worst Efficiency rating in the league over their last 5-games.

#808 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -10 over Grand Canyon, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We’re hearing a lot about the fact that Grand Canyon had some success last year waltzing into the Dance last season and upsetting St Mary’s as a 5 point dog in the round of 64. First of all, GC’s team this year is nowhere near as good as last year’s team. This year they rank 96th per KenPom and last year they were 52nd entering the tourney. This year they rank 151st in offensive efficiency and 69th in defensive efficiency compared to 74th and 32nd respectively last year. The Lopes have faced the 255th strength of schedule which is the 8th easiest in the entire NCAA tournament. They only played one Quad 1 game this year (lost to Georgia) and if we add in Quad 2 they were 1-3 including losses to Arizona State (who finished 4-16 in the Big 12), La Tech, and Utah Valley. Maryland will be BY FAR the best team they’ve faced this season. The Terps rate as the 2nd best team in the Big 10 (per KenPom) behind only MSU and if we dropped Grand Canyon in the Big 10 at their current rating they would rated 2nd to last. The Terps shoot the 3 much better (ranked 27th to 284th for CG) and they turn the ball over far less (23rd in offensive turnover rate compared to 270th for CG). The majority of the Lopes scoring comes inside the arc and at the FT line but the problem here is Maryland defends very well at the rim with two 6’10 players and they rarely send teams to the foul line. The Terps were 15-7 in the Big 10 this year (regular season and tourney) but they were really close to winning the conference as all 7 of their losses came by 6 points or less. This team is undervalued in our opinion as they are 1 of 10 team in the country that rank in the top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Both teams love to play up tempo and the more possessions gives the better team a chance to win by margin. We’ll lay it with Maryland on Friday.

#790 ASA PLAY ON St Mary’s -4 over Vanderbilt, Friday at 3:15 PM ET - St Mary’s will take Vandy out of their comfort zone and slow this game down. The Gaels rank 359th (out of 364 teams) in adjusted tempo and the Commodores rank in the top 65. They like to play fast and STM will get the pace here (much easier to slow down a team rather than speed up a team) and Vanderbilt is not used to that tempo. Every team in the SEC, with the exception of Tennessee, South Carolina, and UGA, like to play fast. When the Dores’ were slowed down, they were 1-2 SU in those games with their lone win coming by 3 points vs South Carolina who finished with a 2-16 conference record. The Gaels should dominate the boards in this game as they are one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (#2 in the nation) vs a Vandy team that ranks just 178th on the defensive glass. The Commodores won only 4 of their final 12 games to squeak into the Dance. They rank 14th out of 16 SEC teams and benefitted from the conference affiliation and really shouldn’t be in the Dance. Their defense has been suspect ranking 278th in eFG% allowed and 337th defending the arc while St Mary’s ranks inside the top 15 in eFG% allowed, defensive efficiency, and 2 point FG% allowed. They are also solid defending the arc (43rd in the nation) vs a Vandy team that struggles to make 3’s (240th in 3 point FG%). Their defense ranks outside the top 300 in both FG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. We like the Gaels in this one.

#758 ASA PLAY ON UCLA -5.5 over Utah State, Thursday at 9:25 PM ET - We’re hearing lots of love for Utah State by the talking heads and we’re not so sure they deserve the 12 vs 5 “upset” tag here. First of all, the Mountain West has been a terrible NCAA tourney conference going 30-63 SU and 29-61-3 ATS their last 93 games in the Big Dance. That includes Tuesday night’s game where San Diego State, the 4th highest rated team in the MWC which is higher than this Utah St team, getting blasted 95-68 by a UNC team that was the final bid to the tourney. As underdogs in the tourney, MWC teams have covered the spread only 27% of the time since 2001, a sample of 55 games. Now to the match up. USU is rated by KenPom as the 5th best team in the conference and while their offense is solid, their defense ranks 151st nationally which is the 4th worst mark in the conference and ahead of only 11 teams in this tournament. UCLA ranks in the top 35 in both offense and defensive efficiency while playing the much more difficult schedule. The Bruins with some extra motivation here after getting blitzed by Wisconsin in the Big 10 tourney as the Badgers made 19 of 32 triples (60%). The Bruins have high level wins over Gonzaga, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Oregon and Arizona among others. USU is 3-6 vs teams ranked inside KenPom’s top 50 and UCLA will be the 2nd highest rated team the Aggies have faced this season. Let’s lay it with UCLA.

#765 ASA PLAY ON Drake +6.5 over Missouri, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET - This is just a flat out bad match up for the Missouri Tigers.  They like to play fast and Drake will slow this game to a crawl.  The Bulldogs are the slowest tempo team in the entire country averaging a shot every 22 seconds which is the slowest mark (per KenPom) in the last decade.  Worse yet, if they miss that shot, their offensive rebounding rate is stellar (17th in the nation), and then the defense has to immediately play another long possession.  Missouri is a very poor defensive rebounding team (300th in the country) and their defense isn’t great (9th in the SEC in defensive efficiency and outside the top 100 nationally since Feb 1st).  The Tigers struggled down the stretch with a 2-5 record their last 7 games and one of those wins came vs South Carolina who finished 2-16 in the SEC.  Drake is in the top 75 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They shoot the ball very well ranking 21st in FG% and 75th in 3 point FG%.  They’ve already shown the can beat the big boys as they topped Vandy (NCAA tourney team) by 11 on a neutral site (outrebounded Vandy by 19) and they also beat a decent Kansas State team on the road.  They’ve won 18 of their last 19 games with their only loss coming by 2 points to a good Bradley team.  We expect very few possessions in this game which will make it very tough for Tigers to win by margin, if they win at all.  Take the points.

#771 ASA PLAY ON Yale +8 over Texas A&M, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - We think A&M has a chance to get upset early in this tourney because they don’t shoot the ball well ranking outside the top 300 in both eFG% and 3 point FG%. The Aggies have the 2nd worst eFG% in the entire NCAA tournament ahead of only Alabama State. They rely very heavily on offensive rebounds (#1 in the country) for 2nd chance scoring opportunities and Yale has a chance to negate that somewhat. The Bulldogs are a big team that ranks 22nd nationally in defensive rebounding. Those numbers might be a bit inflated due to their weaker schedule but they are at the very least a decent rebounding team. Yale is the much better shooting team (41st in eFG% and 9th in 3 point FG%) and they were easily the best team in the Ivy going 15-1 in their 16 games. They not only rebound the ball well they also rank in the top 20 nationally on offensive turnover rate. They gave Purdue trouble in West Lafayette this season losing by 8 (despite making 15 fewer FT’s) in one of the tougher places to play in the country. This team, with many of the same players, beat Auburn last year in the opening round of the NCAA so they have the pedigree to keep this close and have a shot to pull off the upset. If this is tight late, as we expect, FT’s could be key and the Aggies hit less than 70% as a team. Yale coach James Jones is excellent leading this team to 20+ wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons and he’ll have them very well prepared as they were last year in round 1. Take the points.

#712 ASA PLAY ON St Joes -5 over UAB, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a brutal spot for UAB. They just played on Friday, Saturday, and on Sunday in the AAC championship game. They lost that game 84-72 vs Memphis ending their hopes for an NCAA tournament berth. Now after 3 games in 3 days in Texas, the Blazers have to travel to Philadelphia and play a little more than 72 hours after losing to the Tigers. Just a really tough situation both physically and mentally for this UAB team. St Joes lost on Saturday in the A10 tourney vs George Mason and that tourney was in Washington DC which is only 150 miles from Philly. They were home on Saturday night and have had plenty of time to rest up and get ready for this home game. Both teams are potent offensively but St Joes has a huge edge on the defensive end. The home team Hawks rank 72nd in defensive efficiency and 28th in eFG% allowed while UAB ranks 268th and 226th in those 2 key stats. STJ finished 8-1 at home in A10 play (6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite) with their only loss coming vs VCU the conference champion. The Blazers were just 5-5 in true road games this year with all wins coming vs teams outside the top 115 (St Joe’s is ranked 79th per KenPom). The situation heavily favors the host and they are the better team. We’ll lay it.

#708 ASA PLAY ON American -2.5 over Mount Saint Mary’s, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - We like the experience and “age” of American here as they are one of the oldest teams in the country. They start 5 seniors (2 fifth year Super Seniors) who have all played their entire careers for American. They were rated as the 2nd best team in the Patriot league behind Bucknell but won the conference tourney including double digit wins in the semi’s and finals. Since January 5th, this team has won 16 of their last 20 games. We like the scheduling situation much better for this Eagles team. They won the Patriot League championship last Wednesday so they’ve had a full week off. Mount Saint Mary’s, on the other hand, played last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to win the MAAC title and now have to take the road just a few days later. The Mountaineers were rated as the 5th best team in the MAAC and were tabbed as dogs in each of their 3 conference tourney games and pulled upsets in each. They caught some breaks as the 3 teams they faced in their tournament went ice cold from deep with a combined 15 of 75 three point attempts (20%). MTSM was 28 of 75 from 3 during their tourney run (37%) which is above their season average. American should have a solid advantage in turnover margin here as Mt St Mary’s turns the ball over at a rate of 22% which is 5th worst in the nation. American created turnovers al almost a 19% rate in Patriot League play which was the best in the conference and they won the turnover battle in 11 of their final 12 games. That should lead to extra possession for the Eagles which will be very important in a potential close game. These teams are pretty close offensively with American having a slightly better eFG%, a slightly better offensive efficiency, and they do make almost 77% of their FTs which could be key in this one. We’ll lay the small number with American.

#680 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas State -4.5 over St Louis, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Arkansas State was the highest rated team in the Sun Belt the entire season and lost in the Conference Championship game to Troy. That game was last Monday so they’ve had more than a week to recoup and get ready for the NIT. They are excited to be hosting this game on National TV (ESPNU) as they rarely get that opportunity. It’s the first time ASU has hosted a post-season game since 1991. The Red Wolves are 13-2 at home this season and 23-5 since the start of last season. Their average score at home is 80-64 and they should easily win the shot volume stat in this game. ASU is 12th nationally in FG attempts per game as they take advantage of their opportunities by not turning the ball over (36th nationally in offensive turnover rate) and they get extra chances on the offensive boards (61st in offensive rebounding). St Louis is on the opposite end of the spectrum as they rank 308th in FG attempts per game because they turn the ball over a lot (283rd in offensive turnover rate) and they get very few offensive rebounds (337th). The Billikens have been poor on the road (4-8 record both SU & ATS) and struggle to score away from home (68 PPG). They’ve taken care of lower tier opponents, but when stepping up vs similar or higher tier teams, STL is just 1-11 SU this year (vs Quad 1 and 2 teams). This is a big home game for Arkansas State and we expect them to bring their top effort and cover this number.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -6 over Jacksonville State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Rough spot here for Jacksonville State who played for the CUSA Championship and an auto bid to the Dance on Saturday night. They lost by 12 points to Liberty ending their dream of making it to the NCAA tourney for the 3rd time in school history. On top of that, they played last Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday for the title and now are on the road again just a few days later. Georgia Tech has been off since last Thursday when they played Duke very tough losing by 8 in the ACC tourney. The Jackets had no hope of making to the NCAA tournament unless they won the ACC tourney so we expect them to bounce back nicely here. Tech has solid wins this season over both Clemson (on the road) and Louisville (at home) who tied for 2nd in the ACC regular season with a record of 18-2. Their only 2 home losses in conference play this season were vs Duke (#1 per KenPom) and Clemson (#18 per KenPom). Georgia Tech will be the 3rd highest rated team JSU has faced this season and vs top 100 team the Gamecocks are just 1-3 SU. Tech is 12-4 SU vs teams ranked outside the top 100 (JSU is 123rd) and it sounds like they are rejuvenated with 5 days off and able to play at home. We think JSU might be out of gas here and emotionally drained. Lay the points.

ASA play on Denver Nuggets +5.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - The Warriors have gotten red hot with the addition of Jimmy Butler with a 12-1 SU record in their last 13 games. That run has the bookmakers attention which has inflated this number. A closer look at the Warriors streak and we find they haven’t faced a team as good as the Nuggets. The closest team would be the Knicks who they beat twice in this streak, but the recent home win came with Brunson out of the lineup for NY. Denver is coming into this game off an upset loss at home to the Wizards and we expect them to bounce back here. The Nuggets are 18-6 SU off a loss this season with an average MOV of +7.4ppg. The Nuggets have won 9 of the last ten meetings with Golden State including 8 straight. Denver is the best shooting team in the NBA at 50.7% overall and the 4th best 3PT shooting team at 38.2%. It’s hard to believe but Golden State ranks 26th in FG% at 45% and rank 13th in 3PT% at 36.3%. Defensively the Warriors certainly have an advantage but it won’t be enough to cover this spread.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -15 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 8:10pm ET - Philadelphia literally looks like a G-league team right now with 7 of their top eight players out of the lineup today. Some of the players in the Philly lineup today are borderline NBA talents. The 76ers will have a tough time in the back-to-back scenario with their depleted roster. The 76ers are 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS when playing without rest with a negative point differential of minus -8.5ppg. Houston is 9-5 ATS when playing with a rest advantage this season. Houston has won 6 straight games and playing great basketball with the best Net rating (+16.5) over that stretch of games. In comparison the Sixers are 27th in Net rating differential over their last six games at minus -7.1. Philly is 2-6 SU their last eight games and all five losses came by double digits. Houston won’t take this team lightly tonight after they just upset the Mavs in Dallas yesterday. With a healthy VanVleet we expect the Rocket to continue to make noise in the West.

ASA NHL top play on Tampa Bay Lighting -1.5 goals -115 vs Philadelphia – 7:07 pm ET - Tampa Bay had Andrei Vasilveskiy (2.28 GAA this season) in the starters crease at the morning skate and he gives the Lightning a big edge in goal over the Flyers. Ivan Fedotov is the starter for Philly here and he is 5-11-3 this season and Philadelphia has had some issues defensively which is part of the reason the slumping Flyers have lost 6 of 7 games. The Lightning have also produced 3 or more goals in 4 of their last six and put up 6 goals three times! Tampa Bay is 2nd in the NHL in Goals for per game at 3.53, Philadelphia is 24th at 2.75. Philadelphia is allowing 3.37 goals against, the Lightning allow 2.68. The key here is not just that the Lightning hold all the edges, including in current form as well as power play and penalty kill, Tampa Bay also has double revenge here! The only win that the Flyers have recently was last week's win over, you guessed it, the Lightning! Also, earlier this season the Bolts lost to Philly in the shootout here in Tampa. So, with revenge on their side and also having a stacked roster after being buyers at the trade deadline while the Flyers were sellers, Tampa is a -300 favorite on the money line logically! Where we get the value is the puck line! By laying 1.5 goals we only have to lay a -115 price on TB! 9 of the last 10 Lightning wins have been by 2 or more goals. The Flyers have 6 losses since early March and all were by at least 2 goals! This one will be too! Lay it with the Lightning goal line here at -1.5 goals for a Top Play Monday

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:10 pm ET - Both teams are coming off a game yesterday, but we like the Thunders scheduling situation better than Milwaukee’s. OKC at least had 2 days off prior to playing yesterday in Detroit, the Bucks don’t have that same luxury. This will be the Bucks 3rd game in four days, the 6th game in nine days, and the 2nd set of back-to-backs. Not only that, the Bucks last four games have been big games against the Cavaliers, Pacers and Lakers. The Thunder have won 9 of their last ten games overall, covering 5 of their last six games. In this recent stretch of games, they have impressive road wins in Detroit, Boston and Memphis who all rate better than Milwaukee. The Thunder have the best overall Net Rating in the NBA this season at +12.2 compared to the Bucks who rate 11th at +2.2. OKC has beaten the elite teams in the NBA with a 8-3 record against the top 5 teams in the league. Milwaukee on the other hand is 1-10 SU against that same level of competition. OKC has some injuries with Dort and J Williams not expected to play but they do figure to have Chet Holmgren back for this one. Lay the short number with the Thunder.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -4.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We faded Michigan last night and it turned out to be a poor pick.  Purdue shot the ball very poorly 34% from the field and never had a chance.  Our main concern in that game for the Boilers was defending inside the arc.  They haven’t been good at that this season, although much better as of late, and the Wolverines took advantage of that making a ridiculous 69% of their 2 point shots which led to 52% overall.  That shouldn’t happen today vs a Terp that ranks in the top 50 nationally defending inside the 3 point line.  That means Michigan may have to be hot from deep to pick up a win here and they are not a great outside shooting team ranking 17th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG%.  They only shot 30% from deep last night but it didn’t matter because they were scoring at the rim as a very high rate.  The other outlier last night was Michigan only had 6 turnovers.  This is a team that has been terrible at taking care of the ball ranking 330th in offensive turnover rate.  Today we expect them to struggle vs a Maryland defense that can cause problems ranking in the top 45 nationally at creating turnovers.  The Terps destroyed an Illinois team that had been playing at the top of their game coming in.  It was a huge revenge game for the Illini after getting smoked at home by Maryland and they still went on to lost 88-65 yesterday.  To be honest it wasn’t even that close as the Terps led by almost 40 points at one point in the 2nd half.  These 2 met once this season and Maryland traveled to Ann Arbor 10 days ago and won by 5 despite shooting only 38% for the game (Michigan shot 44%).  The Wolverines also shot above their average from deep hitting 35% of their triples and still lost at home.  They turned the ball over 22% of the time in that game which is what we expect today.  Maryland is the better team across the board and we’re not going to let one data point (yesterday) for Michigan change that.  The Wolves were playing terrible over the last month plus entering the tourney and caught Purdue on a night where they shot poorly and Michigan took advantage of poor inside defense.  We’ll lay it here.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -2 over Michigan, Friday at 9 PM ET - We were on Purdue last night and while they topped USC they did not get the cover winning by 5.  We’re coming back with the Boilers tonight vs a Michigan team that was on a sharp decline to end the season.  The Wolverines lost their last 3 games and 4 of their last 6 to end the regular season with their only wins coming by 3 vs Nebraska and by 2 vs Rutgers.  They’ve been extremely lucky in tight games winning their last 9 games that were decided by 4 points or less.  In fact, Michigan has not won a game by more than 4 points in 2 months while 4 of their last 5 losses have come by double digits!  They faced Purdue twice this season and got destroyed on the road (91-64) and barely escaped at home (75-73).  The Wolverines finished tied for 2nd in the Big 10 gathering a double bye for this tourney, however KenPom has them ranked as the 7th best team in the conference, well behind this Purdue team.  If we simply look at the Wolverines efficiency over the last month (since mid February), Bart Torvik has them rated as the 14th best team in the 18 team Big 10 conference.  Purdue, despite finishing behind Michigan in the Big 10 standings, is better at most of the key statistics in league play.  They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency (Michigan is 14th), #1 eFG% (Michigan is 8th), #1 in 3 point FG% (Michigan is 17th), defensive efficiency is almost dead even and Michigan turns the ball over the most in the Big 10 at nearly 20%.  The Boilers are comfortable playing in Indy having played last night and earlier this season while Michigan will be playing their first game here this season.  Right down the road from Purdue this will be a “semi” home game with the crowd factor and we like the Boilermakers to take care of business in this one as they get revenge for the road loss at Michigan (started a 4-game losing streak for Purdue) in the most recent meeting! Payback for the Boilers in this one!

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +5 vs. LA Clippers, 7:30pm ET - We unsuccessfully played against the Clippers the other night in Miami as the Heat look like a team that has quit on the season. Tonight, we get a larger spread with a home-dog Hawks team that continues to play hard for Quinn Snyder. Atlanta has won 4 straight games, all at home, and has a 9-7 ATS as a home underdog this season. While we are on that subject, the Clippers are one of the worst road favorites in the NBA with a 4-11 ATS record. Los Angeles has won 4 of their last five games overall but are just 2-7 SU their last nine road games. The Clippers are 13-21 ATS away from home overall with a negative differential of minus -2.1ppg. Atlanta should enjoy their advantage with offensive rebounding as they rank 9th in the league compared to the Clippers who rank 23rd in O-boards. In each teams last ten games they have near identical Net Rating differentials at +0.1 and +0.8.

#811 ASA PLAY ON St Joes +1.5 over Dayton, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have St Joe’s as the slightly better overall team and they are getting points in this one.  We like the fact that STJ played yesterday to get acclimated to the large NBA arena (Cap One in DC) while Dayton did not play.  Fatigue won’t be a factor in the 2nd of back to back games but it could be if they continue to win.  The Hawks won 75-70 over LaSalle in what looked like a tight game but it really wasn’t at STJ led by 21 points with just under 4:00 minutes to go in the game before the Explorers went crazy and made 5 triples in the last 3:30 of the game to make the game look like it was competitive.  LaSalle made a ridiculous 65% of their 3’s on the night and still trailed by 20+ points late.  These 2 met once this season back in January and Dayton took that game at home by a final score of 77-72.  The Flyers shot 49% from the field (42% for STJ), 42% from 3 (27% for STJ) and made 4 more FTs yet the game still went to the wire.  Dayton finished 1 game ahead of St Joes on the A10 standings (12-6 record vs 11-7) but if we look at conference only stats, the Hawks were better almost across the board.  STJ had the better offensive and defensive efficiency, better offensive and defensive eFG%, they were the much better rebounding team, and had a better PPG margin (+6.4 to +2.2) despite having 1 fewer win.  The Flyers could be getting an extra bump here because they beat the best team in the A10, VCU, to close out the regular season but the Rams played that game without one of their top players who was injured.  We like this spot for St Joes getting points.

#821 ASA PLAY ON Kennesaw State +7.5 over Liberty, Friday at 12:30 PM ET - Kennesaw has proven to be a tough match up for Liberty who ranks as the top CUSA team. In their 2 meetings this season Liberty won by 8 @ Kennesaw and the Owls return the favor winning by 5 @ Liberty late in the season. KSU scored 85 at Liberty which was the highest point total the Flames allowed all season. The Owls won that road game by 5 points in early March despite Liberty making 17 more FTs! KSU won the shot volume by a huge margin (+28 shots in the 2 games) in part because they dominated the boards pulling down 24 more rebounds and that should stick in this game. The Owls are tied for the top rebounding team in CUSA +11.5 per game and they rank 2nd in offensive rebounding. Liberty is the 2nd worst rebounding team in the conference getting outboarded by 6 per game. The Owls are very athletic and they are a top notch dribble creation team which gave Liberty’s defense big problems especially in the recent meeting where they hit 51% of their shots. Defensively KSU matches up well with Liberty’s offense with the Owls ranking in the top 75 nationally in eFG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. They were able to speed Liberty up in their 2 meetings (70 possessions average) which is not the Flames game. If they are ahead late and need to hold on, Liberty makes only 65% of their FT’s which ranks 345th in the country. KSU has now played 19 conference games, including last night’s win over NM State, and they’ve been topped by more than 8 points just 3 times. This one stays tight like the first 2 meetings and we’ll take the points.

#752 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -10 over USC, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Tough spot for USC here after making the long travel to Indianapolis and then playing a double OT game in the late game last night. They topped Rutgers 97-89 and every USC starter played more than 40 minutes as they have a very short bench. Only 1 bench player topped 8 minutes last night. That’s going to be a tough turnaround vs a Purdue team that is one of the most efficient offenses in the country (8th nationally & 1st in the Big 10). The Trojan defense is already poor ranking 14th in the conference in efficiency, 13th in eFG% allowed, and giving up nearly 80 PPG in league play. They’ve been even worse defensively on the away from their home court giving up 90, 82, 95, 88, and 90 in their last 5 road games alone. Some of the Trojans losing margins away from home this season include -27 vs UCLA, -18 vs Purdue, -21 vs Oregon, -17 vs Maryland, and -13 vs Indiana. While this is not a true home game for Purdue, they are very used to this venue in Indy (played here already this year) and they should have a huge crowd edge. As we mentioned above, PU already beat USC by 18 this year and they actually led by 26 late in the game and dominated the offensive glass pulling down 47% of their misses. We’d expect a similar rebounding performance vs a tired USC team that ranks outside the top 200 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. That should lead to extra opportunities for the Boilers who are a solid shot volume team (20th among Power 5 teams) while USC is not (bottom 15 among Power 5 teams). Let’s lay it with the Boilers

#740 ASA PLAY ON Xavier +2.5 over Marquette, Thursday at 2:30 PM ET - With a win here XU solidifies their spot in the Big Dance as ESPN currently has them as one of the last 4 in. A loss could push them out of the tourney. The Musketeers have been playing at the top of their game with 7 straight wins and 12 of their last 15. Their top player and leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, missed the first few games of the Big East season including their first meeting with Marquette but since he’s come back this team is on a roll. They faced the Golden Eagles twice this year and both teams won on the road by exactly 2 points. In their win @ Marquette, the Musketeers made only 2 of 17 from beyond the arc, were outscored by 18 points from beyond the arc, and still led by 19 points in the 2nd half (won by 2). That terrible 3 point effort was absolutely an outlier as Xavier ranks 11th nationally hitting 38.5% of their triples. In their tight home loss vs Marquette back in December, they played without Freemantle (as we mentioned above) and still had a shot to win. The Eagles started the Big East season winning 9 of their first 10 games but since they are just 4-6 with their wins during that stretch coming vs Seton Hall, DePaul, Georgetown, and Providence, all teams that ended with losing records in conference play. Since mid January XU ranks as the better team by nearly 20 spots (24th in the country to 42nd for Marquette per Torvik). Xavier is the better shooting team, the much better 3 point shooting team, and they make almost 80% of their FT’s. We’ll take the points here as we expect an XU win.

#745 ASA PLAY ON Indiana +2 over Oregon, Thursday at 12 PM ET - Indiana continues their late season push to try and solidify a spot in the Big Dance. Right now ESPN has them as one of the last 4 in and a win here might come close locking it up. In early February the Hoosiers looked dead in the water after losing 7 of 8 and dropping to 5-8 in the Big 10. At that point head coach Mike Woodson decided he would retire at the end of the season and they rallied around him winning 5 of their final 7 games including wins over Michigan State on the road and Purdue at home. One of their losses during that final stretch run was @ Oregon. The Ducks won by 9, however that final score was very misleading as the Hoosiers actually led with 1:35 remaining in the game and Oregon went on to make 7 FT’s in the last 1:20 while not making a single shot. The Ducks made 19 FTs in the game to just 3 for IU and their largest lead of the game was the final score. During this final 7 game run the Hoosiers have worked their way up to the 32nd best team in the nation (per Torvik) while ranking 63rd in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency. The Ducks are just 1-4-1 ATS as a favorite away from home this year and they are already locked into a solid seed in the Dance (5 or 6 seed as of now). We like IU to pull the upset here.

#653 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +9.5 over SMU, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - This line is set too high in our opinion due to the fact that SMU is in must win mode to try and push back onto the NCAA bubble as they’ve fallen completely off over the last few weeks. You don’t think Cuse has the same mindset as they set out to try and win this tourney which would put them in. The fact is, the Mustangs have been in must win situations over the last month and yet they are just 3-4 SU their last 7 games and 2 of those wins came by 2 and 4 points. One of those wins was at home vs this Syracuse team with the Stangs winning 77-75 on March 4th. SMU shot 54% in that game and never led by more than 2 points. The Orange actually led that game by 12 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the game and blew it and that was on the road. Over the last month (since mid Feb), Syracuse rates as the better team ranking 48th nationally to 75th for SMU (per Bart Torvik) and we’re getting nearly double digits here! We also like that the Orange were able to already play a game here yesterday and get acclimated. They beat Florida State despite making only 2 of 14 three pointers and just 12 of their 22 FT attempts, both well below their season averages. We think Syracuse gives SMU all they can handle here in a game that should be much closer than double digits.

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder +4 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 pm ET - This could be the potential NBA Finals matchup as the Thunder are the best team in the West and the Celtics are 2nd in the East. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss to the Nuggets on Monday while the C’s beat the Jazz. The Thunder off a loss this season are 11-1 SU with an average MOV of +15.7ppg. OKC has the 2nd best road record in the league at 24-7 SU +10.4ppg. Boston is good at home at 23-11 SU with an average +/- of plus 8.3ppg. OKC is 21-2 SU against the Eastern Conference this season, the Celtics are 15-7 SU versus the Western Conference. Oklahoma City rates slightly higher in Net Rating too at +12.8 compared to the Celtics at +9.0. We are 64 games into the season and the Thunder have better overall numbers and are catching points here in a game they can clearly win outright.

#659 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State +5.5 over Baylor, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - KSU started the Big 12 season with a 1-6 record but they’ve since won 9 of their last 14 games including wins over Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State.  They are getting healthy with starter Hawkins is back in the line up after missing 3 games and 2 of those were losses.  Since late January, KSU rates better than this Baylor team at 29th in the country compared to 33rd (per Bart Torvik).  The Wildcats have been lock down defensively during that stretch with the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers in the country since January 24th.  It took the Cats and head coach Jerome Tang some time to get their talented transfers on the same page but now they are humming and can make a run in this tourney.  Baylor has limped into this tournament losing 5 of their last 8 games since losing starting center Ojianwuna for the season to an injury.  Two of those three wins came by 3 points.  In their lone meeting this season @ Baylor, the Bears won by 8 points but made 12 more FT’s and only had 4 turnovers in the game.  With those numbers they should have handled KSU easily by double digits but they never led that game by more than 9 points (KSU had a 12 point lead at one point).  The Bears continue to be overvalued by the markets with an 0-6-2 ATS run and a spread record of 9-18-2 on the season.  Too many points here as we give Kansas State a decent shot at winning this game outright.

ASA play on Washington Wizards +15.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7:10 pm ET - The Pistons are playing great basketball right now but they are not ready to lay this big of a number against any team in the NBA. The largest number the Pistons have been favored by prior to this is -12 points. It’s not a great scheduling situation with the Pistons off a 4-game West Coast trip AND they have a much bigger game with Oklahoma City on deck. The Wizards have won 3 of their last four games, including 2 straight wins. Granted the last 4 Washington wins have come against Brooklyn, Charlotte, Utah and Toronto, but they don’t have to win this game, just stay within margin. Washington has the largest point differential in the NBA at minus -12ppg, but again, that gets us a ‘W’ here. Detroit has an average +/- of +1.6ppg on the season. Detroit is 17-14 SU at home this season with an average MOV of plus + 0.6ppg. Washington was +17.5 points at home against Cleveland in early February and clearly should not be this big of a dog (+15.5) at Detroit. Grab the points.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Virginia Tech +3.5 over California, Tuesday at 4:30 PM ET - This is a rough spot for a Cal team that simply isn’t playing all that well. They’ve lost 9 of their last 11 games with their only 2 wins during that run coming at home vs BC and NC State, by far the 2 lowest rated teams in the ACC. The Bears have been on the road since Monday, March 3rd not heading home for 9 straight days. They played, and were blown out, @ Louisville last Wednesday, then lost in 3 OT’s @ Notre Dame on Saturday now playing in Charlotte just a few days later. In their loss @ ND, the Bears never had a lead in the 2nd half but were able to push the game to OT (3 of them in fact). They had 3 starters play 50+ minutes in that loss (and one played 44+ minutes) so we’re expecting a tired team for this afternoon tilt. After a terrible start to the ACC season, the Hokies went 5-6 down the stretch with 4 wins coming on the road. That actually had 5 true road wins this season (5-5 record) while Cal was 2-11 on the road this season. One of Va Tech’s road wins came @ Cal as they topped the Bears 71-68 in their only meeting this year despite the fact the Bears outscored the Hokies by 15 points from 3 + FT line. Not an ideal situation for a Cal team that ranks outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive FG%. The Bears haven’t been favored in a road or neutral game this season and in fact the last time they were laying points away from home was in November of 2022. We don’t think they should be laying points in this one. Let’s take the points with Virginia Tech in this one.

#837 ASA PLAY ON Wofford +1.5 over Furman, Monday at 7 PM ET - These 2 just played on March 1st to close out the regular season and Furman pulled the road upset winning by a final score of 78-75. The Paladins outscored Wofford by 12 points from 3 and FT line yet the game still went to the wire. Wofford shot just 27% from deep in that game while Furman hit 40% of their triples. What kept the Terriers in the game? Rebounding. They are the top rebounding team in the Southern Conference by a wide margin ranking #1 on the offensive and defensive glass. They were +15 on the glass in that loss and pulled in 46% of their missed shots. In the first meeting the Terriers had a similar edge on the glass and shot the ball much better in a 19 point win on the road. In their 2 meetings, Wofford was +32 on the boards and pulled down a whopping 37 offensive rebounds. Despite finishing 1 game below Furman in the SoCon regular season standings, Wofford is rated as the better team (per KenPom) and getting points here. They are also coming off a blowout win yesterday with not a single player logging over 28 minutes and in their 2 games in this tourney (Sat & Sun) only 1 player played more than 30 minutes. Furman, on the other hand, had to go to OT last night vs Chattanooga and picked up a tight win vs a very good Mocs team that was playing without their 2nd leading scorer. Wofford had the better offensive efficiency numbers in conference play this year while on the defensive end the numbers for these 2 teams were almost identical efficiency wise. If they play to their averages and Wofford dominates the boards as we expect, the Terriers will win this game.

#832 ASA PLAY ON Towson -6 over Delaware, Monday at 6 PM ET - Towson won the CAA by 2 full games and topped this Delaware team twice.  One of those wins was by 10 points and the other by 5 in a game they led by 10 with 3:00 minutes remaining.  The Tigers led both games by double digits while Delaware’s largest lead in either game was just 6 points.  Situationally Towson gets a huge edge here.  They are playing their 2nd game in 2 days and had 8 guys play double digit minutes yesterday while the Blue Hens are playing their 4th game in 4 days in this CAA tourney with a short bench (336th in bench minutes).  They had lost 11 of their previous 12 games entering the conference tourney and they’ve simply gotten red hot from beyond the arc.  In yesterday’s easy win over W&M, the Hens scored 100 points and shot a ridiculous 63% from deep on 29 attempts. In their 3 tourney games they are hitting just over 49% of their 3’s.  While they are a solid 3 point shooting team on the season, we expect the Hens to come back to earth here with tired legs vs a Towson defense that ranks 4th in the CAA defending the arc and held Delaware to under 32% from deep in their 2 meetings.  Towson should get plenty of extra opportunities as we expect them to dominate the glass vs a poor rebounding team that should have weary legs.  The Tigers rank in the top 35 nationally in offensive rebounding while the Blue Hens are outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding.  In their 2 meetings Towson was +24 on the boards including +16 on the offensive glass.  They also turned the ball over at a lower rate (21st nationally in offensive turnover percentage) so the shot volume in this game should be heavily in favor of Towson.  The only downside to this game is the Tigers are not a great FT shooting team but that may not matter if this one isn’t really close late as we don’t expect it to be.  Lay it in this one.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +6.5 at LA Clippers, 9:30 pm ET - This is a big game for both teams as only a ½ game separates them in the playoff hunt with the Clippers sitting 8th in the West, the Kings are 9th. Sacramento has adjusted to their new additions since the trade deadline with Zach LaVine coming over from Chicago. An addition to the Kings roster that doesn’t get talked about is Valanciunas from the Wizards who is playing well with Sabonis out. Valanciunas is coming off a 15-points, 12 rebound game against the Spurs and gives the Kings a big to nullify the Clippers center Ivica Zubac. The Clippers are missing their leading scorer Norman Powell and has not played as well from the AS break with a 3-6 SU record. When we take a closer look at each team’s last 10-games we find the Kings are playing much better than the Clippers. Sacramento has the 10th best Defensive Net rating in that 10-game stretch compared to the Clippers who rank 22nd. The Clippers are 15th in Offensive Net rating in their last 10 games, the Kings are 8th. The Kings have won 5 of their last six games with the only loss coming at Denver by 6-points. We expect them to keep this game close and wouldn’t be shocked with an outright win.

#783 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota +5.5 over Rutgers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Minnesota has been on an impressive run since mid January going 7-6 during that stretch after starting the Big 10 season 0-6. Even more impressive, they’ve been very good in the road winning 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Their only road loss since January 14th was @ Michigan State who just clinched the Big 10 regular season title. The Gophs are one of just 5 Big 10 teams that have a winning record on the road for the season. Rutgers has 5 home losses already this season so they are far from invincible at Jersey Mike’s Arena. The Knights have 7 conference wins and 5 have come by 7 points or less so they struggle to win by margin. They are just 4-5 SU at home vs Big 10 opponents this season with a point differential of -21. Tough to lay 2 possessions worth points with a Rutgers defense that ranks outside the top 300 in FG% allowed, PPG allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed (actually 299th in this stat). Minny has covered 9 of their last 13 as a dog while Rutgers is just 4-7 ATS as a chalk this season and has only been favored 3 times in Big 10 play this year so a role this team is not used to. The Gophers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings and even if they don’t get a W here, we expect the game to go to the wire so we’ll take the points.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6.5 at Golden State Warriors, 9:30 pm ET - We like to play against teams in their first home game off an extended road trip which is the case for the Warriors here. Golden State played a tough 5 game East Coast trip which ended with a taxing win in Brooklyn on Thursday night. Detroit is playing fantastic basketball right now but is coming off a loss against the Clippers on Wednesday. Detroit has won 8 of their last ten games overall and in that 10-game stretch they have the 2nd best Net Rating in the league, ahead of the Warriors. The Pistons have the 2nd best record in the league when coming off a loss with an 18-9 ATS record with a +1.6ppg average MOV. Golden State is 11-10 ATS at home as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +6.1ppg. These two teams have very even season Efficiency rating, both offensively and defensively so we expect a tight game in the Bay on Saturday.

#710 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -6 over Duquesne, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We were on St Louis last Saturday at home and they delivered with a huge 98-67 win over Loyola Chicago, a team that ranks 10 spots higher than this Duquesne squad per KenPom. The Billikens have struggled all year on the road but at home they have been very good with a 13-3 SU record including a win over A10 leading VCU who only has 2 conference losses this season. They are 6-2 ATS at home in league play. The Billikens have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet they still rank 1st in eFG% offense and 2nd in eFG% defense. The Billikens sit at 10-7 in league play and the Dukes are just 8-9 despite playing the easier schedule. Duquesne is just 2-7 SU on the road this season and they struggle to score averaging just 67 PPG away from home on 42% shooting. That’s not a great recipe vs STL at home who averages nearly 80 PPG and shoots 48% overall and 38% from deep. Duquesne is coming off their biggest game of the season hosting 1st place VCU a game they lost by 9. Could be a letdown spot for them in their final game of the season and away from home. STL should have some extra incentive after losing @ Dayton on Tuesday, a game they led by 13 at halftime. The Billikens are the better shooting team (FG% and PPG), the better defensive team (FG% and PPG allowed) and they should have a distinct edge at the FT line as the Dukes send teams to the charity stripe a lot (last in the A10 in opponent’s percentage of points from the FT line). Let’s lay it with St Louis at home.

#690 ASA PLAY ON WVU -7.5 over UCF, Saturday at 5 PM ET - We faded UCF on the road last Saturday @ TCU and came up with a nice win with the Frogs winning by 9. We’ll go against the Golden Knights again on the road where they’ve been flat out bad this season. They are 2-7 SU on the road this season and they’ve lost 6 straight road games and they’ve won only 3 of their last 11 games. Those 3 wins all came at home vs Utah, Oklahoma St, and KSU who all have losing records in the Big 12. We expect UCF to be flat for this somewhat meaningless game after they won on Senior Night at home on Wednesday. That was their big game. The Knights are most likely going to be seeded in the 12 to 13 range for the upcoming Big 12 tourney. WVU has lots of motivation in this one. It’s their home finale and they will honor 6 seniors playing their final game. They also can ill afford a loss as they attempt to make the NCAA tourney and they are currently seeded around a 9 or 10 seed by most bracketologists so far from a lock. They face a UCF offense that is not a great shooting team (320th in FG%) and this WVU defense is a terrible match up for them as they allow only 58 PPG at home on 39% shooting. Huge defensive edge for the Mountaineers in this game as they rank 16th nationally in defensive efficiency while UCF ranks 16th in the CONFERENCE (dead last) in defensive efficiency. The Knights will also be without 2 key players on Saturday with starting guard Ivy-Curry (13 PPG) and key reserve Mikey Williams both injured. A bad shooting team that is also not good defensively makes it really tough to win on the road. We think the Knights will be simply playing out the regular season here and focusing on the Big 12 tourney while WVU will have lots of motivation. Lay it.

#632 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee -15.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 2 PM ET - South Carolina is locked into the #16 seed (last) in the SEC tourney with a 2-16 conference record and nothing to play for in this game. Our guess is they are as flat as a pancake in this one playing away from home with nothing really to play for as next Wednesday starts their “new” season. On top of that, the Gamecocks have been absolutely terrible on the road this year. They are 0-8 SU on the road in SEC play and 1-9 SU on the season with their only win coming @ Boston College who currently sits with a 4-15 record in the ACC. Their average score on the road PPG margin this year is -16 PPG allowing 80 PPG while scoring just 64 PPG. Here are some the South Carolina’s road results this season…lost by 30 @ Missouri, lost by 23 @ Kentucky, lost by 21 @ Florida, lost by 35 @ Mississippi St, lost by 20 @ Oklahoma and the Vols are rated higher than all of those teams with the exception of the Gators. Every road loss they’ve had this season has been by double digits with the exception of their game @ Vandy. The Vols will be very motivated on Senior Day coming off a 2 point loss @ Ole Miss. Head coach Rick Barnes called his team out for being “soft” in that game and UT guard Jordan Gainey didn’t disagree. “We’re a tough group of guys,” Tennessee senior guard Jordan Gainey said after the game, “and whenever we get out toughed, it’s personal. It felt more personal than anything because they did the things we usually do.” Bad news for South Carolina who will really struggle offensively in this game. The Vols allow just 60 PPG at home on 37% shooting and they will bring extra energy to this one. On top of that, the Gamecocks upset Tennessee here last year (SC was MUCH better a year ago) and the Vols haven’t forgotten that one. A win here locks up a double bye in the SEC tourney for Tennessee and this has the makings of a blowout. The Vols take out their frustrations in the home finale and roll to a huge win.

#838 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -4 over Purdue, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on the Illini on Sunday as a dog @ Michigan and they rolled to an easy 20 point win. As we mentioned in our analysis for that game, we feel Illinois is undervalued as they approach the end of the regular season. They’ve dealt with injuries and illness for much of the conference season however they Illini are now getting healthy. They finally had everyone back in the line up last week and they blasted both Iowa and Michigan by 20 points. They rank in the top 5 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite missing a number of players on and off throughout the season. The Boilers are coming off back to back home wins vs UCLA & Rutgers but on the road it’s been a different story this season. They are 5-5 SU away from home but as of late they’ve lost 3 in a row away from home @ Michigan, @ Michigan St, and @ Indiana. The Boilers average 85 PPG at home on 1.24 PPP but on the road that drops like a rock in the ocean with an average of 70 PPG on 1.05 PPP. Their defense has been a sieve inside the arc ranking 337th and dead last in the Big 10 defending inside. That’s a problem vs a full strength Illinois team that has been great inside ranking 14th nationally in 2 point FG%. That inside advantage for the Illini will also pay off on the boards where they rank inside the top 40 in both offensive and defensive rebounding with Purdue ranking outside the top 150 in both. PU will have to be red hot from deep to have a chance here and we like Illinois to win and cover in their home finale.

#306504 ASA PLAY ON Radford -3.5 over Presbyterian, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - These 2 Big South rivals split 2 games this season with Radford winning on the road by 13 and Presbyterian winning on the road on Feb 22nd by 7. In the most recent meeting @ Radford in late February PU averaged 1.27 PPP, way above their season average of 1.05 PP and made 27 of 32 FT’s (84%) which was unlikely from a team that shoots 69% from the foul line this season. Presbyterian also outrebounded Radford, the much better rebounding game. So there were definitely some outliers in their most recent match up and the better team, Radford has some extra motivation after losing at home late in the season. Radford finished 4th in the conference but is rated by KenPom as the #2 team in the Big South behind only High Point, the 1st place team in the conference. 6 of Radford’s 7 conference losses came by 7 points or fewer with their only loss by more than that margin was vs High Point, the best team in the league. PU finished with a losing Big South record at 7-9 and over half of those losses (5) were by double digits. Radford ranks 2nd in the Big South in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they are the top 3 point shooting team in the conference hitting almost 40% of their triples. They also hit nearly 80% of their FT’s in conference play and almost 24% of their points come from the charity stripe (15th nationally). The most recent match up had a number of outliers including a bad FT shooting team Presbyterian hitting 12 more FT’s than Radford, and if everything plays to the averages here, Radford covers this number.

ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10pm ET - The Rockets are on a 3-game losing streak but catch a break in the schedule with the 17-win Pelicans tonight. Houston has dealt with some significant injuries in recent weeks but is mostly healthy tonight sans Fred VanVleet. The Rockets three recent losses have come against the Kings, Thunder and Pacers so it’s not like they were losing to bad teams. Houston has beaten this Pelicans team twice already this season by 17 and 20-points respectively. New Orleans has a respectable 4-2 SU record in their last six games, but the wins aren’t overly impressive coming against the Suns, Jazz and Spurs. Houston is 17-14 SU on the road this season with the 10th best average MOV at +2.0ppg (only 11 NBA teams have a positive differential on the road). New Orleans has just 11-home wins this season and the 23rd worst average differential of minus -2.6ppg. Houston has clear advantages offensively and defensively when it comes to efficiency statistics and given those differences, they should be a -6.5 or more point favorite in this match up. Lay the points with Houston.

#815 ASA PLAY ON Wright State +6.5 over Robert Morris, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is the team #1 seed Robert Morris did not want to see in the Horizon League tourney. Wright State finished 8-12 in the conference but they are much better than their record and a dangerous team in this tourney. They are a fantastic offensive team that ranks 14th nationally in FG% and 6th in the country in 3 point FG%. They’d have a much better record but they’ve lost a bunch of really close games with a 3-9 SU record this year in games decided by 6 points or less. 9 of their losses this season have come by 4 points or fewer or in OT. In their 2 games vs Robert Morris this season, Wright State won by 2 at home and lost by 3 on the road and last season the Raiders won both games big by 25 & 30 points. RM is a very solid overall defensive team but their Achilles heel is defending the arc where they rank 214th nationally. WSU shot nearly 50% from beyond the arc in their 2 meetings combined and that’ll be a problem for RM again in this game. Wright just hit 14 of 30 from 3 point land on Monday in their round one 98-85 win over IU Indy. The Colonials do come into this tourney winning 13 of their last 14 games, however their one loss during that stretch was vs this Wright State team. It’s not a great match up for the #1 seed Robert Morris and we look for another close game. While Robert Morris has the better record this season, Wright State has been the better program with 9 consecutive winning seasons prior to this year while the Colonials are sitting on their first winning season since 2020. Take the points.

#681 ASA PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Michigan, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on Illinois +3 @ Michigan on Sunday and the Illini destroyed the Wolverines 93-73. We’re on the Terps tonight, a team that rates better than that Illinois team and they sit 15 spots higher than Michigan in KenPom’s rankings. The Terps are surging winning 9 of their last 11 games with both of those losses coming by 3 points vs Ohio St and Michigan St. The Wolverines are trending down losing 2 of their last 4 games with their 2 wins during that stretch coming by 2 points vs Rutgers and by 3 vs Nebraska. As we’ve stated in our other Michigan write ups, this team has not won a game by more than 4 points since January 12th. They are now in 2nd place in the Big 10 behind MSU, but their PPG margin in conference play in barely above water at +0.9 PPP which is 7th in the league. Maryland is 4th in the conference in that state at +6.8 PPG. The knock on the Terps early in the season was they couldn’t win on the road. That narrative is now gone as they’ve won 4 of their last 5 road games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 3 points @ OSU in a game Maryland led by 17 points. The Buckeyes first lead in the 2nd half in that game was with under 2:00 minutes remaining. Maryland is simply the better team, and not by a small margin, across the board in this game. They have better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively, shoot it better from 3, turn the ball over at a much lower rate (Michigan is last in the Big 10 in offensive turnover percentage), and Maryland is better from the FT line. Michigan has a huge revenge game on deck @ MSU and they remain a money burner as a favorite with a 3-11 ATS record in Big 10 play. We like Maryland to win this game outright.

#652 ASA PLAY ON Virginia -4 over Florida State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - UVA began the ACC season with a 1-6 record and they’ve since gone 6-5 to pull into a tie with FSU and Pitt with a 7-11 conference mark. FSU is headed in the other direction losing 8 of their last 11 games with a lame duck (retiring at the end of the season) coach Leonard Hamilton and they’ve played below their expected efficiency in 4 of their last 5 games (per Haslam Metrics). The Cavs are the much better 3 point shooting team ranking in the top 25 nationally at almost 38% while FSU struggles from deep (280th nationally). They make an average of only 6 triples per game which ranks 327th and on the road they make closer to 5 per game. Adding fuel to the fire, the Noles are a poor 3 point defensive team ranking 12th in ACC games giving up almost 37% from deep. Needless to say, we expect the home team to have a big advantage from beyond the arc in this game. The Noles are just 2-8 SU on the road this season with one of those wins coming @ Miami, the worst team in the ACC. Their other win came by 2 points @ Wake Forest in a game they trailed by 16 points with just 8:00 remaining and outscored the Deacs 28-9 from that point on. FSU wants to play fast and when they’ve faced the slowest paced teams in the ACC and forced them to play in a half court game, they haven’t done well. There are 5 teams in the conference that rank 250th or lower nationally in adjusted tempo (UVA, Clemson, NC State, Va Tech, and Notre Dame) and FSU has a record of 1-4 SU in those games. UVA is one of the slowest teams in the country (360th in adjusted tempo) and they will force the Seminoles to play at a pace they do not like. If this is close late, the Cavs have made nearly 78% of their FT’s in ACC play. It’s their final home game of the season and we expect a huge effort from UVA. Not so sure about FSU on the road. Lay it.

ASA play on Milwaukee Bucks –5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - The Bucks are starting to ‘cook’ with a 6-1 SU/ATS record in their last seven games. In that stretch of games they have quality wins at Dallas and at Minnesota. They also notched impressive victories over Denver, Miami and the Clippers at home. In that 7-game span the Bucks have the 9th best Net Rating in the NBA at +6.1. A closer look at the Bucks last 5 games we find they are around league average in Offensive Efficiency at 1.14-points per possession. Milwaukee’s defense has been the difference as they rate the 4th best in Defensive Efficiency in their last 5 games, compared to their season rank of 10th. Atlanta is in a tough spot here after a game last night in Memphis. I am willing to bet they suffer a letdown here after a grueling road win over the Grizzlies. On the season the Hawks rank 21st in OEFF at 1.123-points per possession. Defensively the Hawks rank 17th on the season in DEFF, but in their last five games they have been worse, allowing 1.201PPP which ranks 25th. These teams recently met in Milwaukee with Atlanta pulling the road upset 115-110. The Bucks get a measure of revenge here with a big road win against the unrested Hawks.

#628 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -9 over Miami, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Tech should have a huge motivation edge in this game as they played their final home tilt of the season and they are fighting to stay in 8th place to avoid the first day games (seeds 10 thru 15 play the first day).  A win tonight would give the Yellow Jackets their 10th ACC win for the first time in the last 4 seasons.  They have 13 home wins and have won 5 in a row at home.  They’re coming off a 87-62 win here over the weekend vs NC State and they’ve easily handled the lowest rated teams in the conference here at home.  The 5 lowest rated teams in the league are Miami, NC State, Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse and GT is 3-0 at home vs that grouping winning by an average margin of +18 PPG.  Keep in mind Miami is the worst of all of those teams.  On the other side of the court, Miami was just eliminated from the ACC tourney with their blowout loss @ UNC over the weekend so they have nothing to play for.  The Canes have been terrible all season (2-16 ACC record) and if they decide to bring the intensity for one final game, our guess would be it is this weekend when they host NC State and have a chance to end the season with a home win.  The Canes are 0-9 SU on the road losing by an average of 15 PPG.  Their defense has been atrocious ranking 363rd in opponent FG% and 364th defending the arc and that’s out of 364 D1 teams.  Miami has to be distracted with interim coach Bill Courtney gone after these final 2 games and rumors swirling about who will be the next head coach (sounds like Duke assistant Jai Lucas has the inside track).  They may also be without starting C Kidd (12 PPG and 7 RPG) who has an injured ankle and missed their game over the weekend.  The Canes are 9-20 ATS and this one has blowout potential.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings -2 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40pm ET - These two teams met in mid-February on this court with the Kings winning 129-128 in OT. Currently, both teams are dealing with injuries to big men as the Mavs will not have PJ Washington tonight along with Anthony Davis, Lively and Gafford. Sacramento will be missing Domantas Sabonis and his 20ppg, but they have a proven vet backup in Jonas Valanciunas to fill in. The Kings are starting to figure out their new lineup with DeRozan (added before the season) and Zach LaVine (trade deadline) with three straight wins. Sacramento is coming off an impressive 10-point win in Houston on Saturday. The Mavericks injuries are taking a toll, and it’s shown with a 1-3 SU record in their last four games. Looking at the last 5 games for each team we find the Kings rank 5th in Offensive Efficiency, the Mavericks rank 28th. Defensively they are both allowing right around 1.13-points per possession. The road team has won 5 of the last six meetings and we like the healthier/deeper Kings to get this road ‘W’.

ASA PLAY ON Illinois +3.5 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - We faded Michigan as a 10 point favorite earlier this week at home vs Rutgers and cashed easily with the Wolverines winning by 2 points on a 3 point shot at the buzzer. They trailed for most of the game vs a lower tier Big 10 team and Michigan simply cannot be trusted as a favorite. They are tied for 1st place in the conference with a 14-3 record but they rarely beat anyone handily. In fact, the last time they won by more than 4 points was over a month and a half ago on Jan 12th. While they do sit in 1st place in the league, they rank just 7th in PPG margin beating teams in Big 10 play but just +2 PPG. Illinois sits in 7th place in the Big 10 but they are vastly undervalued in our opinion. They’ve dealt with injuries and illness for much of the conference season prompting head coach Brad Underwood to state he’s never seen anything like this in all of his years of coaching. However, the Illini are now getting healthy. They had everyone back in the line up earlier this week and blasted Iowa by 20 points (we were on Illinois for that one). They rank in the top 5 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite missing a number of players on and off throughout the season. When they were heathy, this team rolled Oregon and Indiana on the road (by 32 and 25 points) and nearly upset MSU on the road losing by 2. Because Michigan plays close games, they’ve been dreadful in conference as a favorite. In fact, when favored by -3 or more in league play, the Wolverines are 1-10 ATS. We like Illinois to win this game on Sunday.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -2.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 1 pm ET - It’s almost an automatic bet on the Celtics off a loss. Boston has lost 2 straight games, one at a hot Detroit team and another at home against the Cavaliers. The C’s are 26-12 ATS when coming off a loss dating back to the start of last season. They have won those games by an average of +16.0ppg. This season the Celtics are 13-4 ATS off a loss, +19.8ppg average MOV. Boston has the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.0ppg. This is a very low number for a Celtics team that is 64-17 SU their last 81 home games and the average +/- in those games is +12.1ppg. Denver has a strong history on the road too but their defense will be their Achilles heel in this game. Boston lives and dies from beyond the Arc with the 10th best 3PT% in the league at 37%. They attempt and make more 3-pointers than any other team in the league. Denver ranks 20th in 3PT attempts allowed, 23rd in 3PT’ers made and 18th in 3PT% defense. Denver has great offensive statistics with the best FG% in the league and rank 3rd in 3PT%. The problem though is that they’ll face a Boston defense that allows the 3rd lowest FG% overall and 3rd lowest 3PT%. Boston will feed off the home crowd and get this win by 8+ points.

#676 ASA PLAY ON TCU -3 over UCF, Saturday at 4 PM ET - TCU has played #1 most difficult Big 12 schedule to date. UCF has played an easier schedule (5th SOS in conference) yet TCU has the better record at 8-9 in Big 12 play compared to 6-11 for UCF. We’re catching the Horned Frogs on a good bounce back spot at home coming off back to back road losses @ Cincinnati and @ WVU. Now they are back home where they have a 13-2 record with some impressive wins over high level opponents including Texas Tech, BYU, and Xavier. The Golden Knights are off back to back home wins after a 7 game losing streak. Their recent home wins vs Utah and Kansas State were both down to the wire with margins of 4 points. The Utes are the 3rd lowest rated team in the Big12 and fired their coach following that tight loss. KSU went on a nice run winning 6 in a row but have since lost 4 straight and played at UCF without key starter Hawkins (11 PPG and 7 RPG). Now Central Florida goes on the road where they’ve been terrible 2-6 record and they’ve lost 5 straight away from home. TCU will be extra motivated for this one of their worst losses of the season was @ UCF losing 85-58 as a 4 point dog. The Frogs shot 20 triples in that game and made ONE! They were outscored in that game by 43 points from the 3 point line + FT line. Just one of those games where everything went wrong for TCU. The Knights are a poor shooting team ranking 312th in FG% and on the other end they rank dead last in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. Not a good recipe for success on the road. We’ll lay the small number here with the Horned Frogs.

#672 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -2.5 over Loyola, Saturday at 4 PM ET - These 2 met two weeks ago and we were on Loyola -2.5 in that game and picked up a win with the Ramblers winning by 9. However, it was much closer than that final score as the game was actually tied with 3:00 minutes remaining. Loyola shot a higher percentage in that game and made 50% of their 3’s (12 of 24). We don’t expect a repeat performance from deep for Loyola as St Louis leads the conference defending the arc allowing only 30% on the season (A10 games). The Billikens have struggled all year on the road but at home they have been very good with a 12-3 SU record including a win over A10 leading VCU who only has 2 conference losses this season. They are 5-2 ATS at home in league play. The Billikens have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet they still rank 1st in eFG% offense AND defense. The Ramblers have a losing record on the road in conference play (3-4 SU) and their 3 road wins have come vs LaSalle, Richmond, and Davidson. The first 2 are the lowest rated teams in the A10 and Davidson has a 6-9 league record. Loyola has a negative point differential on the road this season while STL is outscoring their opponents by +11 PPG at home. The Ramblers offense is averaging just 0.985 PPP on the road (1.08 at home) while allowing 1.042 PPP (they allow 0.933 at home). Quick revenge for STL in a game that was close for 37 minutes on the road just 2 weeks ago. Lay it.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Ole Miss -7.5 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Ole Miss is in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses including a 30 point setback at #1 Auburn on Wednesday night. It was an embarrassing performance, especially on the defensive end where they allowed the Tigers to score 1.50 PPP while shooting 60% from the field. A definite outlier as the Mississippi defense on the season allows 0.95 PPP (21st nationally) and just 42% from the field. You can bet that head coach Chris Beard, a defensive specialist, will have this team ready to go full speed ahead on Saturday. They are facing a down trending Oklahoma team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games and the Sooners are coming off a gut wrenching 1 point home loss vs Kentucky who scored the go ahead bucket with only a few seconds remaining. After that tough loss OU goes on the road where they’ve been really poor this season with a 1-6 record. Their numbers drop off a cliff away from home where they have lost by an average of 17 PPG while scoring just 66 PPG and giving up 83 PPG. The Sooners are shooting only 39% away from home and all but 1 of their SEC road losses have come by double digits. We expect with the Ole Miss defense being completely focused here that the Oklahoma offense will really struggle in this game. The Rebs should also get plenty of extra possessions in this game as they rarely turn the ball over (#2 nationally in offensive turnover percentage) while OU coughs the ball up quite often ranking 14th in the SEC in that key stat. Ole Miss needs a ‘get right’ game as they’ve dropped to a projected 8 seed in the NCAA after their rough 3 game stretch. The Rebels win by double digits.

ASA play on Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. NY Knicks, 8:10pm ET - These two teams met in New York in late January and the Knicks put a spanking on the Grizzlies in a 143-106 beatdown. New York shot 52% overall and 39% from beyond the Arc with +8 in made 3-pointers. NBA teams may forget a loss in the season but not one that came by 37-points, so we are betting the Grizzlies play at a high level here. Memphis is 18-10 ATS at home this season with an average +/- of plus 11.0ppg which is the 3rd highest number in the NBA. New York is 13-14 ATS on the road this season with an average differential of plus +2.5ppg. In non-conference games the Grizzlies are 16-6-1 ATS with an +/- of 9.0ppg. The Knicks are 9-9 ATS against the Western Conference this season. New York is 2-4 ATS as a road dog and have had troubles with the leagues best teams. In recent games the Knicks have lost by 13 at Boston, -37 at Cleveland and lost by 27 to the Celtics at home. Memphis compares very favorably with the Knicks offensively with the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.184PPP versus the 3rd best OEFF on NY at 1.201PPP. Defensively it’s not even close as the Grizzlies rate 9th in DEFF at 1.039PPP allowed compared to the Knicks who rank 22nd allowing 1.152PPP. Memphis should enjoy a rebound advantage with the 5th most defensive rebounds per game, the Knicks are 24th. The Griz are also the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the NBA, the Knicks rank 21st. Memphis is 7-1 SU their last eight home games with an average +/- of +7.7ppg. Bet Memphis.

#890 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over UCLA, Friday at 8 PM ET - We’re catching Purdue at the bottom of the market and in a must win spot after 4 straight losses. 3 of those losses were on the road and their 1 home setback during this stretch was vs Wisconsin who rates as the Big 10’s best team per KenPom. The Boilers were favored by more vs the Badgers (-6) than they currently are vs UCLA (-5 at the open) despite Wisconsin being ranked 20 spots higher than the Bruins per KenPom. Another recent comparison was UCLA’s trip to Illinois where they were 7 point dogs and now only 5 vs Purdue despite the Boilers being the higher rated team. We’re getting some home value with PU because of their losing streak. The Bruins game @ Illinois looks like a down to the wire affair if you simply look at the final score which was 83-78 but the fact is the Illini led that game by 16 points with 4:00 minutes remaining and never trailed once in the contest. UCLA is 4-4 on the road this season and 2 of those wins were short trips to lower tier Big 10 teams USC and Washington. When they’ve had to make long travel going east, the Bruins have losses @ Illinois, @ Rutgers, @ Nebraska, and @ Maryland. On the road averages only 68 PPG (they average 80 PPG at home) on just 0.994 PPP (they average 1.177 PPP at home). The Boilermakers are 28-2 SU at home since the start of last season and Mackey Arena is widely respected as the most difficult road venue in the Big 10. UCLA has never made the trek to Mackey so unfamiliar territory for the Bruins. These 2 are tied in 4th place in the conference with 11-5 record, however Purdue has played the more difficult slate and they have better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in league play. We like the desperate Boilers to win and cover at home on Friday night.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers +10.5 over Michigan, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Too many points here as the Wolverines tend to play close games win or lose. Michigan is tied for 1st in Big Ten (with MSU) with 13-3 record but they rarely beat anyone handily. In fact, the last time they won by more than 4 points was nearly a month and a half ago on Jan 12th. While they do sit in 1st place in the league, they rank just 7th in PPG beating teams in Big 10 play but just +2 PPG. It’s also not an ideal spot for the Wolverines as they’ve already beaten Rutgers and have a HUGE game on deck with Illinois so a look ahead is highly possible. In that first meeting Michigan won on the road by 3 points but Rutgers played without their leading scorer Dylan Harper (5th leading scorer in the conference) who averages just under 20 PPG. Speaking of Harper, the Scarlet Knights are obviously much better with him in the line up and he’s been in and out all season with injuries and illness. They are 7-10 in Big 10 play, however when Harper is healthy they are 6-6 so a .500 SU record. Rutgers has been very competitive with a PPG margin in the conference of -4 PPG and of their 14 losses (14-14 overall record) the Knights have only lost 2 of those games by more than 14 points. Because Michigan plays close games, they’ve been dreadful in conference as a favorite. In fact, when favored by -3 or more in league play, the Wolverines are 1-9 ATS. We think Rutgers will give Michigan all they can handle here and we’ll take the generous points.

#754 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State -2.5 over San Francisco, Wednesday at 11 PM ET - This is the Beavers final home game of the season which should bring some extra motivation to this contest. Not that extra motivation is needed as a loss @ USF earlier in this season will take care of that. In the first match up, the Dons won at home 81-70 as a -4.5 point favorite. The box score for San Francisco was ridiculous as they shot 60% overall for the game and 59% from beyond the arc hitting 13 of 22. They’ll have a tough time getting anywhere near those numbers tonight as USF shoots just 41% on the road and 32% from deep barely averaging 1.00 PPP. Along with the Dons hitting everything in sight in the first meeting, OSU was just 1 of 9 from beyond the arc (11%) so they were outscored by a whopping 36 points from beyond the arc and lost by only 11 points on the road. At home, OSU has been outstanding offensively hitting 51% of their shots, 40% of their 3’s and averaging 1.18 PPP which is top 30 in the nation (for home teams). The Beavers poor offensive numbers from the first meeting should rise dramatically at home tonight. The one thing OSU did have an advantage on offense in that meeting was at the FT line where they made 21 to USF’s 14. We anticipate the Beavs will have an advantage again tonight as they get to the FT line more than any team in the WCC (percentage of points from the FT line) while USF sends opponents to the line more than any team in the conference. When Oregon State gets there, they make 80% in WCC play. They are 15-2 at home (14-2 ATS) with their only losses coming vs Oregon (by 3 points) and St Mary’s who already clinched the WCC Title. San Franciso has a losing road record (4-5 SU & 4-4-1 ATS) and a negative point differential away from home on the season. This number is too small and we’ll take advantage of the value with the home team. Take Oregon State.

#746 ASA PLAY ON Arizona State +5 over BYU, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - Great spot for ASU to pull the upset here. The Devils had lost 6 in a row, including 3 vs top 12 teams (KenPom) and they finally picked up some momentum with a solid 12 point win @ Kansas State over the weekend. Because of their losing streak, we’re still getting some value here despite the solid road win. BYU recently played @ WVU and @ Cincinnati and the Cougs were 2 point dogs in those 2 games vs teams that rate almost identical to Arizona State but now they’re laying 4 on the road in this game (opening number). It’s a terrible spot for BYU playing their 2nd straight road game after pulling off a big upset @ Arizona late on Saturday night. It was a crazy, controversial ending with BYU getting fouled with just 3 seconds remaining and hitting both FT’s to win by 96-95. The Cougars went crazy on the offensive end hitting 55% overall and 45% of their 3’s (made 13 triples). They also averaged a ridiculous 1.37 PPP, this from a BYU team that is averaging 1.06 PPP on the road this season. Defensively they continued to struggle allowing 1.36 PPP and 54% from the field for Arizona. Not all that surprising as BYU allows opponents to hit nearly 50% and 40% from 3 away from home. They rank 11th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency, 13th in eFG% and 3 point FG% allowed. BYU has a losing road record (4-5) and they are getting outscored by an average of 5 PPG. Not only do they have a negative point differential on the road, they also have a negative PPP differential (efficiency) and a negative FG% and 3 point FG% differential. We think ASU has a great shot to pull this upset. Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat -2 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 pm ET - These two teams just met on Monday in Atlanta with the Hawks winning 98-86 as a -2.5-point favorite. The natural line swing in this game should have the Heat favored by -5.5 or -6.5-points in this game. We played against Miami in that game on Monday as the Heat were in a very tough scheduling situation playing their 3rd game in four nights, all of which were on the road. Miami shot 32% from the field overall and 18% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers are well below their season statistics of 45.3% and 35.6%. Despite that atrocious shooting performance, the Heat were still competitive in the 12-point loss. This game is a big one for both teams as only 1-game separates them in the playoff standings with less than 26-games remaining. Miami has gone through an adjustment period with their new roster since the trade deadline and being back at home for just the 2nd time in February and playing with immediate revenge should have them focused. Miami by double-digits at home tonight.

ASA NBA play on Indiana Pacers -9.5 vs. Toronto Raptors, 7pm ET - This is a great spot to back the Pacers and fade the Raptors. Toronto is coming off a big game on Tuesday against the World Champion Celtics. Indiana is at home and coming off a home loss on Monday to the Nuggets. The Pacers have also lost to the Raptors twice this season so they will be more focused than usual to face Toronto. The Raps are 6-4 ATS when playing without rest this season but they have a negative differential of minus -9.0ppg. Indiana is 8-4 SU their last twelve games overall, 8-3 SU their last eleven at home with the losses coming to Denver, New York and Cleveland. In their last seven home games the Pacers have an average +/- of +6.0ppg. Toronto doesn’t have the offensive capability to keep up in this game as the Pacers are 4th in FG% at 48.9%, 11th in 3PT% and have the 6th best Offensive Efficiency rating compared to the Raptors who rank 26th. Indiana isn’t great defensively on the season, but they have better efficiency numbers than the Raptors. We like the Pacers to bounce back with a big home win Wednesday.

#631 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech +9 over Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Pitt isn’t playing well enough to be nearly a double digit favorite in this game.  They have won just 4 of their last 13 games and none of those wins have come by more than 11 points and that 11 point win came at home vs Syracuse who is rated as the 3rd worst team in the ACC.  They rank 357th in Haslam Metrics Momentum category (out of 364 teams) solidifying how poor they’ve been playing as of late.  The Panthers are just 2-5-1 ATS as a home favorite in conference play losing 3 of those games outright and they’ve already lost 6 games SU as a chalk this season.  They are ranked 74th nationally per Bart Torvik metrics however since mid January the Panthers are ranked just 131st (14th in the ACC during that stretch) while Georgia Tech is in the top 100 during that time.  During that stretch since mid January Pitt ranks 97th in offensive efficiency, 193rd in defensive efficiency, and 356th defending the 3 point shot.  Tech has won 4 of their last 6 games including topping 2 of the ACC’s best teams, Clemson & Louisville.  The Jackets defense has been very good all season ranking in the top 85 and this month they rank 58th nationally in defensive efficiency.  They’ve done a great job of not fouling ranking #1 in the ACC in opponents percentage of points from the FT line.  We think Tech keeps this game very close and we’ll take the points.

ASA play on Atlanta Hawks +1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:40 pm ET - Both teams are coming off games yesterday but the Hawks were at home while the Heat were in Milwaukee. Atlanta also has the benefit of not playing Friday night, whereas the Heat were in Toronto. Miami’s starters played a heavy load of minutes against the Bucks with every starter playing 33+ minutes, Herro and Wiggins both were on the court 39+ minutes. Atlanta had 4 bench players all get 13+ minutes of play with only two starters playing more than 32 minutes. This game is a big one for both teams as only 1-game separates them for a play in berth in the postseason. Atlanta beat the Heat at home earlier this season 120-110 as a 1-point home underdog. In each team’s last 10 games the Heat’s offense has really struggled, ranking 26th in Net Rating. The Hawks on the other hand rank 7th in ONR over that same 10-game stretch. In that 10-game period the Heat have slightly better defensive numbers but not enough to warrant them being a road favorite here. Atlanta is 8-5 ATS as a home dog this season, Miami is 4-10 ATS as a road favorite. Take Atlanta at home to win outright.

#876 ASA PLAY ON Florida State +3.5 over North Carolina, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Heels have won 3 straight which may look to some like they are surging but those wins came vs Syracuse, NC State, and UVA, all ranked outside the top 100 and 2 of those wins were at home. Their 1 road win during that stretch came by 6 points @ Syracuse (5-11 record in conference play) in a game they outscored the Orange by 27 points from beyond the arc and it was still a down to the wire (2 point game with 40 seconds remaining). Despite that road win vs one of the ACC’s lowest rated teams, the Heels have been poor away from home. They are 0-7-1 ATS away from home this year and lost 4 in a row SU on the road before beating the Cuse. UNC has a losing record on the road and they are getting outscored by 4 PPG away from home. Offensively the Tar Heels average 1.15 PPP (efficiency) at home and that drops to 1.04 on the road. Defensively they allow just 0.96 PPP at home but that jump drastically to 1.09 PPP on the road. FSU has won 3 of their last 5 games with their 2 losses during that stretch coming vs Louisville and Clemson, 2 of the top 3 rated teams on the ACC. Their 8 points loss @ Louisville on Saturday (easy cover for FSU) was fairly impressive to be honest as they were -26 points in that game from the 3 point line and FT line combined and still kept it close vs a very good team on the road. The Noles are 10-4 at home this season with a +7 PPG margin. While UNC’s numbers fall off on the road, FSU’s are much better at home especially on defense where they allow just 0.94 PPP which is the 3rd best mark in the conference. The Noles are one of the tallest teams in the nation and are top 25 in block shot percentage and top 55 in creating turnovers (defensive turnover percentage). We think FSU has a great shot to pull the upset here (not even sure it’s an upset if they do). Take the points.

ASA Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:30 pm ET - These same two teams met right before the All-Star with the Wolves winning at home 116-101. OKC wasn’t in a great scheduling situation coming off a home game and a big come from behind win against the Heat and playing their 3rd game in four days. Minnesota was coming off a loss the night before to the Bucks, but that was on their home court, so they didn’t have to travel. Minnesota recently played in Cleveland, who has very similar Offensive, Defensive and Pace statistics as the Thunder and were beaten handily 128-107. The Thunder lost the most recent meeting in Minnesota so you can bet the best team in the league will be motivated and focused here. OKC has an average plus/minus on the road of +9.3ppg which is the 2nd best number in the NBA. Minnesota’s +/- at home is +4.4ppg but those numbers are largely predicated on a lineup that features Gobert, Randle and DiVincenzo, who are all out for this game. While these two teams have similar defensive numbers, with the Thunder having the edge, the offenses don’t compare. Minnesota is 13th in Offensive Efficiency, the Thunder at 5th. Minnesota shoots 46% overall (19th), the Thunder shoot 47.2% (9th). We like the Thunder to get revenge and a blowout win on the T’Wolves home court.

#858 ASA PLAY ON UCF -2.5 over Utah, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We’re absolutely catch UCF at the bottom of the market after they have lost 7 straight games. We’re also catching Utah off 2 huge home wins over Kansas & Kansas State and now going on the road where they’ve been terrible this season. This isn’t just any road game as the Utes make their furthest trek of the season (over 2,300 miles) to Orlando. Utah is 1-6 SU on the road this season and they are losing those games by an average of 15 PPG. They shoot just 39% on the road while hitting only 28% of their triples and averaging a paltry 61 PPG on only 0.932 PPP. It’s going to be tough for them to keep up with a UCF offense that averages 79 PPG on the season. While the Golden Knights have been in a funk, they are 10-5 at home and all 5 of those losses have come vs teams that rank at least 20 spots higher than Utah per KenPom including high level opponents Houston, BYU, Kansas, and Iowa State. UCF has played the most difficult strength of schedule in league play while Utah has faced the 11th most difficult slate yet still has a losing record in the Big 12. If this game was played a month ago, we’d be looking at UCF laying 2 or 3 more points. We like them to break their losing streak at home on Sunday afternoon.

#774 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +2.5 over Missouri, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Razors are coming off 2 tight road losses vs top 10 teams losing at Auburn by 7 and @ Texas A&M by 8. They had won 3 of 4 prior to that and Arkansas is now in must win mode at home as they sit squarely on the bubble. This is their final regular season “statement” type game for the NCAA tournament committee as their 4 remaining conference games are vs Texas, South Carolina, Vandy, and Mississippi State all ranked outside the top 25 per KenPom. Head coach John Calipari has already said that every game from here on out is a tournament game for his team. They catch Missouri in a huge letdown spot after they upset Bama at home on Wednesday. They caught the Tide in a letdown spot as Alabama was coming off a home loss vs Auburn when the two rivals were ranked #1 and #2 in the AP Poll. On top of that, the Tigers already beat Arkansas handily at home by 18 points so another reason to possibly overlook this game. That first meeting @ Missouri was the Razors 5th consecutive loss as they were playing as poorly as they have all season. However, since that loss, the Razorbacks have been playing much better topping their projected efficiency and 6 of their last 8 games (per Haslam Metrics). The Tigers really thrive on making 3’s and getting to the FT line with very little coming inside the arc (325th nationally in percentage of points from 2 point land). The Arkansas defense matches up nicely in that regard as they keep opponents off the FT line and defend the arc very well (37th nationally). This one has upset written all over it. We’ll take the points with Arkansas.

#689 ASA PLAY ON Portland State -2.5 over Weber State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Weber State has been playing terrible basketball since losing 2 key senior starters in the last month. They lost their 2nd and 3rd leading scorer and they have won only 2 of their last 11 games and after losing their 2 key seniors, the Wildcats are playing more underclassmen than any other team in the Big Sky. It’s not as if they’ve had a home court advantage this season with just a 1-6 SU record at home in conference play and 1-9 overall at home vs D1 opponents. Their one win came by 4 points vs Northern Arizona who is 6-9 in conference play. The Wildcats have the worst defense in the Big Sky allowing 1.13 PPP and today they are facing a Portland State team that has the best defense in the conference allowing 0.99 PPP in Big Sky games. PSU ranks #1 defensively in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and defensive turnover rate. The Vikings are coming off a road loss @ Idaho State on Thursday but still sit in 3rd place in the conference despite playing the 2nd most difficult strength of schedule in the league. They have been solid on the road with 5 wins which is more wins than Weber has at home. These 2 met already this season and PSU rolled to an easy 74-56 win dominating the glass (+13 boards) while holding Weber St to just 0.86 PPP and 35% from the field. Not only that, the PSU defense did that when Weber was a full strength prior to their 2 key injuries. The Vikings averaged 1.14 PPP on 49% shooting and that success should continue on offense. They rank 31st nationally hitting 48% of their shots and facing a Weber State defense outside the top 300 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. This line is light as it factors in the Wildcats playing at home where they haven’t been winning. We’ll take the much better team laying this small number.

ASA play on New Orleans +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 pm ET - The 13-win Pelicans have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season, largely due to injuries. New Orleans has had to deal with Zion Williamson missing 37 games, Dejounte Murray 24, Herb Jones 35, Trey Murphy 17 and CJ McCollum missing 15 games. Not to mention, Brandon Ingram who they traded, played in just 17 games for the Pels this season. Now it’s the Mavericks turn to deal with injury issues with Anthony Davis out, Daniel Gafford, Caleb Martin and Derek Lively out, Washington is not 100% and neither is Klay Thompson. The front court for the Mavs is dangerously thin right now. We expect Williamson to be in the lineup for the Pelicans tonight which gives them a low post presence the Mavs are lacking. New Orleans is 1-10 SU their last eleven games, but it’s come against a murderous schedule with games against some of the league’s best teams. In fact, one of those games was against this Mavericks team which they lost to 136-137. The Pelicans beat the Kings right before the All-Star break and can build on that momentum in Dallas tonight. The Mavs have two huge games looming against the Warriors and Lakers and could easily look past this Pelicans team tonight.