ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7 PM ET - You may be shocked to know that these two teams have nearly identical records at 13-11 for the Wolves and 13-12 for San Antonio. Minnesota got off to a slow start this season with the subtraction of KAT and the additions of Randle and DiVincenzo but have found a groove in recent weeks. Minnesota is 5-1 SU their last six games with the lone loss at Golden State. They have covered 4 of their last five games with impressive wins over the Clippers, Warriors and Lakers. San Antonio has won two straight games but don’t be misled by those results as the wins came against the 5-21 Pelicans and 8 win Blazers. Prior to those two wins the Spurs had lost to Phoenix, Chicago and Sacramento. Minnesota is playing better as evidenced by their Net Rating of +5.3 in their last 10 games compared to the Spurs Net Rating of -3.6 over that same period. If we look at each team's most recent 5-games we see the Wolves have a decisive advantage in Net Ratings of +15.3 (3rd best in NBA) versus the Spurs -9.8 (25th). San Antonio upset the Wolves early in the season when Minnesota was trying to figure things out. The Timberwolves are in a much better place now and won’t look past this San Antonio team with essentially the same record.

#475 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Chargers offense has really been struggling as of late failing to reach 300 total yards in 3 straight games while averaging only 4.7 YPP during that stretch. If we subtract their defensive TD’s over the last 3 weeks, this offense is only averaging 16.6 PPG. Tough to lay points with a team that struggles to score. We don’t see that changing here as they have a bunch of injuries on that side of the ball. Starting QB Herbert injured his ankle last week @ KC and didn’t practice until Thursday and was limited at that point. He’ll play but won’t be 100%. His top RB Dobbins was put on IR a few weeks ago, top WR McConkey didn’t play last week and was limited in practice this week, and top TD Dissly will miss the next few weeks. Those injuries really limit this offense that wasn’t great to begin with. On Sunday they are facing one of the top offenses in the NFL as Tampa averages 28 PPG (5th in the league). Their offense has scored 30, 28, and 26 points the last 3 weeks while averaging 6.6 YPP. The Bucs rank in the top 10 in total offense, YPP, rushing yards, and passing YPG. The Chargers defense has solid overall numbers, however they’ve only faced 3 top 10 offenses this season and they allowed 27+ points in 2 of those 3 match ups. Tampa has the better YPP margin (+0.4 to +0.1) despite playing the tougher schedule. LAC is off a huge division game last week @ KC (loss) and they have another big one next week vs Denver. We like Tampa plus the points here.

PREFERENCE HERE IS 1ST HALF PLAY for those of you with access to that: #458 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -1 in the FIRST HALF over Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Houston should be ready to roll from the get go here as they are coming off a bye week. The Texans have been fantastic in the 1st half with an 11-2 ATS and they have led by an average score of 14-9 at the break. They have led at the half in every game but 2 this year and that includes being up by 14 on Buffalo and up by 16 on Detroit. The Dolphins have been a slow starter getting outscored by an average of -1.4 points in the first half and on the road they are losing by an average of -4 points at half. Away from home Miami’s offense is only averaging 6.5 points in the first half which is the 4th worst mark in the NFL. It won’t get any easier here facing a top 5 defense in Houston. On top of that, while the Texans are coming in rested off a bye, Miami will be playing their 9th straight week as their bye was in mid October. Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans has a 23-9 ATS career mark in the 1st half and QB CJ Stroud’s 23-7 first half ATS mark is the 3rd best of any QB in the last 20 years. We just need Houston to be ahead at halftime here and we’ll take it.

PREFERENCE HERE IS 1ST HALF PLAY for those of you with access to that: #463 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -9.5 in the FIRST HALF over NY Giants, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Baltimore is coming off a loss 2 weeks ago vs Philadelphia and they’ve now had 14 days (off a bye) to stew about that setback and come out with some extra fire early in this one. The Ravens are 3rd in the NFL averaging 29.5 PPG and they are averaging over 14 points in the first half. They rank #1 in the NFL in YPG, YPP, and rushing YPG and they have a mismatch here facing a NYG defense that sits 29th defending the run and 30th in YPC allowed. The Giants offense ranks dead last in the NFL in 1st half points averaging only 6.7 on the season. It’s gotten worse since the let starting QB Jones go as they’ve put up only 13 total first half points in 3 games (4.3 per game). The offense has a whole has been flat out bad all year but since Jones departure they have averaged only 4.3 YPP which is the worst in the NFL in that 3 game stretch. Back up QB, and now starter, Drew Lock will not be available in this game so they are back to their 3rd stringer Tommy DeVito. In his one start this season, the Giants scored 7 points (only TD in the 4th quarter) on 245 total yards vs a bad Tampa Bay defense. We don’t trust laying the full 16.5 with Baltimore for fear they get a lead and take their foot off the gas in the 2nd half. That won’t happen in the first half as we expect the Ravens to come out and put up big numbers early before tapering back. Lay the 9.5 in the first half with Baltimore.

#459 ASA PLAY ON NY Jets -3 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Our feelings on these two teams is this. One has quite obviously quit on their coach (Jags) and the other has not (Jets). Jacksonville may have won last week but it came against a bad Tennessee team. The Jags managed 291 total yards of offense and 5.0YPP. The Jets are off an OT loss to the Dolphins but had one of their best offensive games of the season with over 400+ yards of offense at 6.4YPP. Aaron Rodgers is not the player he once was but he’s still significantly better than Jaguars QB Mac Jones. The Jets offense should click against this Jags D that is 31st against the pass, allowing 263PYPG, 30th in completion percentage allowed and last in the NFL in Yards per attempt allowed. New York has put up 27, 21 and 26 points in their last three games against better defenses than this Jaguars unit. Jacksonville will have a tough time moving the ball here against a Jets D that allows the 3rd fewest yards per play at 4.9, gives up the 3rd fewest total YPG, rank 5th in yards per rush allowed and is 3rd against the pass. Mac Jones is 1-4 SU as a starting QB for Jacksonville with 2 TD’s to 5 INT’s and a 62.5% completion rate. These teams have identical 3-10 SU records, but the Jets have an average differential of minus -3.8ppg compared to the Jags -8.2ppg. We are betting Aaron Rodgers is not content riding off into the sunset on a losing note with just 4 games possibly left in his career.

#306627 ASA PLAY ON Norfolk State +3.5 over Northern Kentucky, Sunday at 1 PM ET - NKY is 4-6 on the season and their 4 wins have come vs Kentucky State (Non D1), University of the Cumberlands (Non D1), Bellarmine (ranked 333rd), and IU Indy (ranked 349th). Not an impressive list to say the least. Their defense has been one of the worst in the country ranking 337th in eFG% allowed and 358th in 3 point FG% allowed. They haven’t been much better on the other end of the court offensively ranking 295th in eFG% and 331st in 3 point FG%. Throw out their games vs the 2 Non Division 1 teams listed above and the Norse are only averaging 65 PPG on the season. Norfolk State is 6-5 on the year and they have already tallied 3 true road wins. The Spartans are the much better shooting team hitting 49% of their shots on the season (42nd nationally) led by 2 very solid guards (Moore & Ings) who combined to average 33 PPG this season. Norfolk returns 4 starters from last year’s team that finished with a 24-11 record. They are very well coached by head man Robert Jones who returns for his 12th season and over the last 3 years (prior to this season) he has led the Spartans to 70 wins and just 29 losses. They are hungry for a win here coming off back to back losses including losing @ Baylor on Wednesday so a little extra motivation for the better team in our opinion. NKY continues to be overvalued with a 1-7 ATS record on the season while Norfolk is 7-2 ATS, including a 5-1 mark as an underdog. Take the points with Norfolk as we like them to win this game outright.

#704 ASA PLAY ON UC Santa Barbara -13.5 over UW Green Bay, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for UWGB making the long travel to the west coast after getting rolled at home by rival UW Milwaukee on Wednesday night. The Phoenix lost that game by 19 points but it wasn’t that close was UWM led by 29 with 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. New head coach Doug Gottlieb is struggling in his first year ever coaching CBB with a 2-9 overall record and 6 straight losses. Their 2 wins came vs Western Illinois (ranked 325th) and SIUE (ranked 259th) with their most recent win coming nearly a month ago. The Phoenix are a terrible defensive team ranking outside the top 330 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and PPG allowed. They have given up more than 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Not a great match up here for that terrible defense facing a UCSB team that ranks 13th in eFG%, 24th in 3 point FG%, and 31st in 2 point FG%. The Gauchos are also stout on the defensive end allowing opponents to shoot just 38% which is the 18th best mark in the nation. UCSB should get plenty of extra opportunities as well on the offensive end as UWGB is a terrible rebounding team on both ends. The Phoenix are also working through some locker room issues as their leading scorer was benched 2 games ago for not showing up to a pre-game shoot around. UCSB rolls in this one.

ASA NBA play on MILWAUKEE BUCKS -3.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 3:30 PM ET - These same two teams recently met in Milwaukee with the Hawks prevailing 119-104. The Bucks were playing the second night of a back-to-back after clinching a Cup spot the night before against the Pistons. Milwaukee was also without Khris Middleton who is now back in the lineup after missing most of the season with an injury. Both teams are on a heater right now with the Hawks winning 7 of their last ten and the Bucks going 8-2 SU their last ten. If we compare Net Ratings over that 10-game stretch, we see the Bucks have the better overall number of +6.3 compared to the Hawks +1.1. The Hawks have a couple of budding stars on their roster with Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels, but the Bucks have more established, veteran SuperStars with Lillard and Giannis. The Hawks are getting a ton of public action, and the pros keep buying the Bucks. I’m on the side of the pros here with Milwaukee in a quick revenge match up on a neutral court in Vegas.

#630 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -13.5 over NC State, Saturday at 3:15 PM ET - Love this spot for the Jayhawks at home. They are coming off back to back road losses @ Creighton and @ Missouri and they’ve had the full week off to stew about those setbacks and get ready for this home game vs NC State. Let’s not forget before those back to back losses, the Jayhawks had wins over UNC, Michigan State, and Duke and they’ve faced the 15th most difficult schedule to date. NC State, on the other hand, has 3 losses already this season and they’ve faced the 303rd most difficult schedule so far per KenPom. The only win the Wolfpack have vs a team inside the top 200 was vs Florida State and that was at home in OT in a game they trailed by 6 in regulation late. Their 3 losses have come vs top 100 teams Texas at home, and by double digits vs Purdue and BYU on neutral courts. This will be their first true road game of the season and Kansas is the best team they’ve faced to date. Minus their win vs FSU, all of the Wolfpack’s wins have come vs teams ranked 215th or lower. Their most recent game on Tuesday night was at home vs an 0-11 Coppin State team that is rated the 2nd worst team in the nation (363rd) and NC State only won that game by 10 points as a 32 point favorite. That’s the closest game Coppin State has had this season and that includes the likes of UMBC, Loyola Maryland, Wagner, High Point, and Rider who all beat them by a larger margin than NC State. The Wolfpack have only 1 starter back from last year and they are still finding their way with a number of new transfers. Kansas is waiting to smack someone at home and it just happens that NC State is that someone. Blowout here.

#451 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams +3 over San Francisco 49ers, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - The Rams record (6-6) is a bit misleading in our opinion. They had tons of injuries early in the season including both of their top WR’s were out and lots of mixing and matching on the offensive line due to guys being out. Over the last few months this team has gotten healthy and they have become a dangerous team winning 6 of their last 8 games. Rams head coach McVay always has his teams playing well late in the season with a spread record of 13-2 ATS their last 15 December games. While the Rams are healthy, the Niners continue with their injury problems on both sides of the ball. On defense they have 8 guys either out or questionable in the 2 deep, RB McCaffrey remains out and his back up is now banged up, and the offensive line has some question marks. After losing 3 in a row, San Fran finally got a win last week at home vs the Bears, however Chicago is a free fall and was coming off 3 huge division losses and looked like they were out of gas. Just a huge game for LA who currently sits 1 spot out of the playoffs in the 8th position and a win here improves their chances to 50-50 to make the post-season. SF has only a 5% chance to make the playoffs and while they haven’t been officially eliminated, for all intents and purposes they are out. Thursday night games can be a benefit to the home team if their opponent has to make a long trip but this 1 hour flight for LA shouldn’t affect them negatively in any way. Take the points on Thursday night.

#672 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +6.5 over Iowa State, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Huge revenge game for the Hawkeyes who were demolished last year @ ISU 90-65 as an 8 point dog. The Cyclones are laying nearly that same number on the road this year so we like the value with Iowa. ISU is playing their first true road game of the season and they have struggled in Iowa City losing 4 straight here, all by at least 14 points, with their last road win in this rivalry coming in 2014. The Hawkeyes are coming off a 2 point road loss @ Michigan last Saturday in a game they shot just 42% to Michigan’s 55% and made 7 fewer FT’s but still had a shot to win on the road vs a very good opponent. The Cyclone defense thrives on creating turnovers to pick up extra possessions but they may not get that advantage here vs an veteran Iowa back court that has only turned the ball over at a 14% rate (32nd nationally). Iowa State has also had a huge edge at the FT line in their games thus far attempting 93 more FT’s than their opponents in their 8 games. However, Iowa has done a great job of not fouling with only 12% of their opponents points coming from the charity stripe (11th lowest rate in the nation). On top of that, with this game being in Iowa City, we don’t see ISU getting a friendly whistle on Thursday night. The Hawkeyes should have a solid advantage from beyond the arc where they rank 33rd in 3 point shots made per game to ISU’s 208th in that category. Iowa had defended the arc very well this season allowing just 27% (13th nationally) so the Cyclones may make even fewer from deep than their average which isn’t great. Iowa has been waiting for this one after last year’s debacle and we expect this one to be tight. Iowa and the generous points are worth the take here.

#645 ASA PLAY ON UTEP +15 over Louisville, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Louisville has been decimated by injuries early in the season and they’ve struggled as of late losing 3 straight. They’ve already lost 2 starters for the season and their backup PG is also now out for the year. The most recent injury to Kesean Pryor on November 29th was a huge loss as he was putting up 12 PPG and 6 RPG. It’s gotten to a point for the Cards that head coach Pat Kelsey mentioned they’ve struggled to simply go 5x5 in practice due to lack of bodies (they are down to 8 scholarship players). They gave a valiant effort vs Duke here on Sunday building a 14 point first half lead but running out of gas in the 2nd half losing 76-65 and the Cards played only 7 players. Coming off that all out effort and facing arch rival Kentucky on Saturday, we have to believe Louisville might struggle here in this massive sandwich spot. UTEP is a solid team coming off a winning season last year and bringing back a number of their key players. The Miners are 7-2 on the season and have some momentum with 3 straight wins including topping 2 solid teams UNCG and Seattle, both top 140 teams. Unlike Louisville, the Miners are very deep with 10 guys averaging double digit minutes and 8 players averaging between 5 PPG and 13.5 PPG. Defensively they rank #1 in the nation this year AND last year at creating turnovers with opponents coughing it up 28% of the time. That could be a problem for a thin Louisville team that has struggled with turnovers this season and doesn’t have a backup PG. UTEP can also make 3’s (38% which is 50th in the nation) and they make their FT’s (76%). Going back to the start of last season, the Miners have lost only 3 games by more than 14 points (tonight’s line is +14.5). We like UTEP to give Louisville all they can handle on Wednesday and we’ll take the hefty points.

#610 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers -1 over Penn State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We really like this spot for Rutgers coming off 3 consecutive games while they catch PSU after their upset, court storming, home win over Purdue. The Scarlet Knights 3 games losing streak is not a huge surprise as they played high level opponents, away from home, and they were dogs in all 3 of those games vs Alabama, Texas A&M, and Ohio State. They covered 2 of those games losing tight games to Bama (by 5) and A&M (by 4) and they looked emotionally spent in their most recent loss @ OSU. Now Rutgers is back at home for the first time since November 20th and they get to face a Penn State team that has yet to play a true road game. They’ve faced a tough schedule (73rd SOS) thus far taking on 4 teams ranked in the top 80 while PSU’s SOS is ranked 296th and they’ve faced only 2 teams ranked in the top 100 (beat Purdue at home and lost to Clemson on a neutral). An extra layer of motivation for the Knights as they were favored by 8 points at home vs PSU in January and lost shooting just 34%, making only 1 of 17 from beyond the arc, and missing half their FT’s. It was one of the Nittany Lions 2 road wins last year (2-8 SU on the road last season & 7-24 SU on the road the last 3 seasons). PSU is hitting 52% of their shots this season (4th in the country) which isn’t sustainable, especially in their first true road game. They’ve faced only 2 top 100 defensive efficiency teams and already 4 ranked outside the top 300 in that category. Rutgers has one of the most talented teams they’ve ever had with 2 freshmen (Bailey and Harper) each expected to be top 10 draft picks next year. We like a bounce back, all in effort from Rutgers and at this small number we really only need them to win at home.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -7 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - We are not sure how the Magic can score enough points to keep this game close with their two leading scorers both out for this game. Orlando is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA but the Bucks have two many options offensively with Lillard, Giannis and now K-Middleton back in the fold. After a horrendous start the Bucks are now 10-3 SU in their last 13 games and even with the three losses factored in they have an average plus/minus of +5.3PPG. Milwaukee has won 5 of their last six at home with those five wins coming by an average of +9PPG. Orlando is coming off an upset win over the Durant-less Suns two days ago and are in a tough scheduling situation here. The Magic played 5 straight road games, returned home for the game against the Suns, and are now back on the road again. The home team won all four meetings between these two last season and three of the four were blowouts by +15 or more points.

ASA NFL play on Dallas Cowboys +5.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 8:20 PM ET - We are betting the Bengals don’t have any gas left in the tank, coming off three huge games, two of which were in the division against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They were on the road for two straight then came home and lost to Pittsburgh last week and are now back on the road in Dallas. The Cowboys have won two in a row with mistake free football and Cooper Rush as their starting QB. Dallas got a huge upset in Washington two weeks ago as a double-digit underdog, then won at home 27-20 last week against the Giants. Cincinnati’s defense has been atrocious, allowing 7.2 Yards Per Play in their last three games and 7.9YPP last week against the Steelers. This Bengals defense is the 4th worst in the NFL in DVOA rankings and can’t stop the run (128RYPG) or the pass (241PYPG) while giving up an average of 28.3PPG which is 31st in the NFL. After scoring just 6 and 10-points, the Cowboys offense has put up 34 and 27-points in the last two weeks and shouldn’t have a problem finding the endzone against this Bengals D. Granted, the Bengals QB Burrow has put up MVP type numbers, but how interested are the Bengals tonight with a very slim chance of still making the playoffs. Not to mention, the strength of the Dallas defense is in the passing game as they allow the 13th fewest passing yards per game and rank 8th in completions allowed. The Cowboys could have given up the last few weeks and didn’t and will compete tonight in front of their home crowd. Grab the points and the home dog.

#136 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals -2.5 over Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These 2 NFC West rivals just faced off 2 weeks ago. The Cardinals were favored by -1 in that game and now we’re getting them only a point and a half higher at home (currently -2.5). In that first meeting, Seattle won the game 16-6 but the Cards outgained the Hawks 5.3 to 4.7 YPP. The huge turning point in that game as a 70 yard pick 6 by Seattle midway through the 3rd quarter with the score sitting at 7-3. Arizona had a tough spot off that loss having to travel to one of the top teams in the NFL (@ Minnesota) for difficult back to back road games. Again, the Cards did lose @ Minnesota last Sunday 23-22 on a late Viking TD with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game. That was the first time Arizona trailed in that game and they outgained the Vikings 406 to 273 total yards. Now they are back at home in a must win spot sitting 1 game out of first place behind the Seahawks. This week Seattle is in the tough situation having to travel to the east coast last Sunday @ NYJ and now on the road again this week. They trailed the Jets 21-7 and had to make a furious comeback to win 26-21 propelled by a 92 yard interception return for a TD. That was Seattle’s 3rd straight win however their offense only averaged 277 yards on 4.7 YPP in those wins. The total yardage in those 3 games was dead even with Seattle gaining 833 total yards and their opponents gaining 833 total yards yet the Seahawks won all 3 (they benefitted from defensive TD’s in 2 of those wins). The offense is struggling and may now be without top RB Walker who has a calf and an ankle injury. Arizona has played the #1 strength of schedule in the NFL so far this season yet they are still +0.5 YPP margin which is good for 7th best in the NFL. Seattle has played a middle of the pack schedule thus far yet they are dead even in YPP margin (+0.0). We like Arizona to win this game by more than a FG.

#134 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Dolphins -5.5 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1 PM ET - There are some very interesting historical trends in this game that support Miami and go against the Jets. We will get to those later. Miami comes into this game off a loss in Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day so they’ve had extra time to prepare for this AFC East showdown. The cold/windy conditions certainly played an impact in that 17-30 loss to the Packers. Looking at Miami’s three previous games we see they were -7.5 at home against New England and won 34-15. The week prior they were laying -8-points at home against the Raiders and won 34-19. The Jets aren’t any better than those two teams and it looks like they’ve quit on the season for a lame duck coach and quarterback. New York is off a stinging loss at home to the Seahawks 21-26, a game in which they led 21-7 before giving up 19 unanswered points in a demoralizing loss. The Dolphins have a +0.1 yards per play differential in their last three games compared to the Jets who are minus 1.3YPP, the 4th worst number int the NFL. The Jets will be without a couple key starters with Breece Hall and Sauce Gardiner out this Sunday, and let’s face it, Rodgers is not the QB he once was and currently ranks 25th in QBR rating. In their last 9 games the Jets are 1-8 ATS and continue to be over-valued by the Books. New York has 1 road win on the season back in week 2 at Tennessee and four of their five road losses have come by 6+ points. Miami has won 13 of the last sixteen meetings with the Jets, with Tua going 4-0 SU and winning those four by an average of +8.6ppg. When Miami with Tua under center has been favored by 6 or more points the Fish have gone 15-1 SU, 12-4 ATS in those games. The Dolphins win this game big.

#754 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -4.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - This is a really good situational spot to grab the Boilers on a low number at home. Purdue was just smoked 81-70 on the road @ Penn State on Thursday. It wasn’t that close as PSU led by 27 with under 10:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Nittany Lions shot very well in that win but the huge edge was at the FT line where they made 29 freebies compared to 14 for Purdue. The Boilermakers also committed a ridiculous 24 turnovers which turned out to be a giveaway on 33% of their possessions. Head coach Matt Painter was upset after the game as you might expect. “Our fight wasn't even close to Penn State's fight. It wasn't even close. Not remotely close,” he said after the loss. You can expect Purdue to play with passion on Sunday. They are facing a Maryland team that is solid, but has yet to play a true road game. They’ve also faced one of the easiest schedules in the country (349th SOS per KenPom – Purdue has played the 16th most difficult SOS) with 6 of their 9 opponents thus far ranking outside the top 250. The Terps are coming off a blowout home win vs Ohio State and the Buckeyes looked disinterested after blowing a big lead and losing to Pitt in OT their previous game. Purdue is undefeated at home including an impressive 9 point win over top 10 Alabama. They have lost back to back games only one time since the start of the 2022 season and the Boilermakers have won 41 of their last 42 home games. The last 5 times these teams have faced off at Mackey Arena the Boilers have been favored by an average of -10.5 points and they’ve won all 5. We’re getting them at a very low number here because of their performance and PSU”s and Maryland’s blowout win over OSU. Take Purdue.

#118 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON SMU -2.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 8 PM ET - SMU has just 1 loss on the season, a 3 point setback to a very good BYU team (10-2 record), and that was prior to current QB Jennings taking over as the starter for a struggling Preston Stone. Since Jennings has been starting under center, the Mustangs are 9-0 winning by an average score of 41-21. During that stretch they beat a number of bowl teams including Louisville by 7 on the road, TCU by 24, @ Duke by 1, Pitt by 13, BC by 10, and Cal by 32, all teams .500 or better. The Mustangs are really good on both sides of the ball with a top 25 offense and defense in a YPP basis. They have the 4th best rush defense in the country allowing only 95 YPG on 2.8 YPC and they have outgained their opponents by an average of +1.8 YPP. Clemson hasn’t really beaten any really good teams this season. The only team they beat that ended the season with a winning record was Pitt and in that game the Panthers outgained Clemson by almost 100 yards and the Tigers scored a TD with 1:16 remaining to win 24.20. Whenever the Tigers had to step up in class they fell short losing big to Georgia by 31, to Louisville by 12 at home, and to South Carolina by 3 at home. If you subtract their 1 good win vs Pitt, who finished with a 7-5 record and was trending down at the end of the year, the Tigers other 7 wins (vs FBS opponents) were vs teams that had a combined record of 25-46. SMU is the better team on both sides of the ball in this game and fared much better vs common opponents. We like SMU to win this one by more than a FG.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -9.5 vs Detroit Pistons, 7:40PM ET - The young Pistons have been competitive this season as an underdog with a 5-3-1 ATS record and an average differential of minus -2.2ppg. The Knicks though have been crushing teams of late with an overall 6-3-1 ATS record as a home favorite this season +15.2ppg. New York's last five home games have been decided by +24, +15, +33, +28 and +10-points. They have been double-digit chalks in 5 straight home games and are 4-0-1 ATS in that stretch. This Detroit team is heading in the right direction, but they’ve just played two similar opponents to the Knicks in the Bucks and Celtics. They lost by 19 at home to Milwaukee in a must win NBA Cup playoff game, then lost to the Celtics by 10-points in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. Detroit made 20 3-pointers against the Celtics and shot 51% from Deep. Do not expect the Pistons to have another great shooting night like they did against the C’s as they are a 35.8% 3PT shooting team on the season with an average of 13.1 makes per game. New York has been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA this entire season, shooting a hair under 50% as a team which is 2nd best in the league. They have the best Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.223-points per possession. Defensively the Knicks uncharacteristically rank 17th in DEFF for the season but in their last five games we are starting to see the Knicks D show up. In their most recent 5 games the Knicks have the 4th best DEFF allowing just 1.071PPP. Watch for the starting lineups in this game as Brunson is listed as questionable. Either way we like the Knicks by more than 10-points.

ASA NBA top play on New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:10 PM ET - We played against the Thunder the other night when they went to Toronto and destroyed the Raptors by 37-points. OKC was favored by -9.5 points in that game and are now giving the Pelicans that same number in New Orleans. At first glance, that would seem to make sense, but that number is based on the Pels 5-18 SU record, not the current lineup the Thunder are about to face tonight. New Orleans has been decimated by injuries this season and has had to play multiple bench players each and every night. They will be without Williamson tonight, but they have everyone else back including Ingram, Jones, McCollum and Murray. With that lineup intact they are coming off a 126-124 win over the Suns and they can certainly hang with the Thunder team on their home floor. The Pelicans have some added incentive here after being bounced from the playoffs a year ago by the Thunder and losing to them in November with a depleted lineup. OKC is really good this season, but they are not in a great scheduling situation here with this being their 6th road game out of their last seven overall. Not to mention they have a much bigger game on deck with the Mavericks looming.

#638 ASA PLAY ON St Thomas -6 over Montana, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We were on Montana as a home dog earlier this week facing South Dakota State and we picked up a nice win with the Grizzlies coming out on top 71-67. SDSU played that game without their leading scorer & rebounder Oscar Cluff, who averages 18 PPG and 11 RPG. That was a huge loss to a very young SDSU team that plays a number of freshmen and they were playing their first true road game of the season. Even with Cluff out the Jackrabbits kept it fairly close despite shooting only 17% from beyond the arc. Now Montana must travel to Minneapolis to face a full strength St Thomas team that ranks with SDSU at the top team in the Summit League. The Griz have won 4 in a row, however all those wins were at home. They are 0-3 SU on the road this season. St Thomas is unbeaten at home this season and they just won @ Northern Arizona by 12 points, a team from the Big Sky that is rated higher than Montana in that conference. The Tommies weakness is on the boards but the Grizzlies aren’t a team that can take advantage of that as they are bad on the glass as well. St Thomas is one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 23rd nationally in eFG%, 46th in 3-point FG% and 31st in 2-point FG%. They also make over 76% of their FT’s. Montana is not a good shooting team especially from beyond the arc where they make only 28% (313th). With the Tommies shooting well and averaging 84 PPG on the season, we’re not sure Montana can keep up. Lay the small number.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Miami OH -2.5 over Ohio, Saturday at 12 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this season and Miami dominated the Bobcats. The final score was 30-20 but that was not indicative of the lopsided play on the field. Miami led 30-6 with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game and Ohio scored 2 meaningless TD’s late. Ohio finished with 291 total yards on just 3.8 YPP and 91 of those yards came on their last 2 drives of the game, both TD’s. The Redhawks averaged 6.4 YPP in the game, outrushed Ohio 5.0 to 3.3 YPC, and averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt to 4.2 for the Bobcats. Just complete domination in that win. These 2 both have just 1 loss in MAC play, however Miami has played the much tougher slate in conference facing Bowling Green, NIU, Toledo, and Ohio, the 4 highest rated teams in the league besides themselves. Ohio, on the other hand, avoided both BG and NIU with their only decent win on MAC playing coming vs Toledo. Despite that, the Redhawks still had the better YPP margin in conference play (+1.6 to +1.2). Last week, Miami dominated a very good BG team on the road in what was a play in game for the MAC Championship. They win 28-12, outgained the Eagles by over 100 yards and had a +2.2 YPC margin. We get the better QB in this game as well on our side with Miami’s Gabbert, a 6th year senior, who has thrown for over 10,000 yards with 80 TD’s and 29 picks. Ohio QB Navarro is a senior as well, but a 1st year starter who has thrown for 2,100 career yards with just 13 TD’s and 11 picks. Miami was in this game last year and won giving them an edge as well. The Redhawks win their 2nd straight MAC Title on Saturday

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +1 at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Wolves are in a much better scheduling situation here with the Warriors coming off a hard fought, physical game against the Rockets last night, while the Wolves are rested. Not only do the Wolves have a rest advantage but they didn’t have lengthy travel as they last played the Clippers on Wednesday night. Minnesota has won 3 straight and look like they are starting to figure their new roster out. Golden State played 2 recent road games including a game in Denver on Dec 3rd in higher altitude, then played last night making this the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights. The Warriors played last night without Curry and Draymond Green. Curry will probably be back tonight, Green is out for an extended period. Minnesota beat this Warriors team all three meetings a year ago, including a pair of wins on this court. If we look at the T’Wolves last five games they have the 7th best eDIFF rating in the NBA compared to the Warriors who rank 22nd in that same category. Grab the points with Minnesota.

#894 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +4.5 over Illinois, Friday at 9 PM ET - We think the Illini are overvalued right now after playing a very easy schedule thus far (309th SOS) and now playing their first true road game of the season. The Illini have played only 2 top 100 teams thus far and split those 2 games. NW is coming off a tough loss @ Iowa where the Hawkeyes hit a 3 pointer at the horn to win by 1 point. The Wildcats led that game by 6 points with less than 2:00 minutes remaining the game and obviously had a great shot to win a road game despite Iowa hitting 55% of their shots. NW’s 3 losses this season came @ Iowa by 1, @ Dayton by 5 (Dayton’s 2 losses are vs UNC by 2 and Iowa St by 5) and @ Butler by 2. The Cats have won the last 2 meetings outright in Evanston, both as underdogs. The Illinois defensive numbers are impressive, however, they have faced 3 teams ranked outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency and the only good offensive team they’ve faced, Alabama, put up 100 points. The Illini have a huge game on deck vs Wisconsin and they are facing a Northwestern team that has won 20 of their last 22 home games. This smells like a potential upset to us. We’ll take the points with Northwestern.

#107 ASA PLAY ON UNLV +4 over Boise State, Friday at 8 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this season and Boise pulled out a 29-24 win and despite the loss UNLV outgained the Broncos by nearly +1.0 YPP (6.3 to 5.4 YPP). The only turnover in the game was an interception thrown by UNLV QB Williams that led to a short 17-yard TD drive for Boise which turned out to be the difference in the game. We were very impressed with the Rebels rush defense as they held All American RB Jeanty to only 3.9 YPC. If they can accomplish that again, we like UNLV to win this game outright. They have a great shot at doing so as the Rebs rank 10th in the nation holding opponents to only 101 YPG rushing on 3.1 YPC. If UNLV can slow down Boise’s run game, the Broncos will have to rely on QB Madsen who has struggled down the stretch completing less than 55% of his passes in 4 of their last 6 games. This Boise State team has been trending down in our opinion. Last week they beat a bad Oregon State team but the Broncos were outgained 6.0 YPP to 5.7 YPP. In their 3 games leading up to last week’s win vs OSU, the Broncos needed a late TD to beat Wyoming who finished with a 3-9 record, they beat SJSU but were outgained in the stats but helped by 4 Spartan turnovers, and barely held on to beat a 3-10 Nevada team by a TD. UNLV ranks 4th nationally averaging 254 YPG rushing and they’ve outrushed their last 4 opponents by an average of +200 YPG on the ground. We love a good running team that has a solid defense as an underdog. UNLV keeps this very close and has a great shot to win it outright.

#103 ASA PLAY ON Tulane -4.5 over Army, Friday at 8 PM ET - We definitely respect Army’s 10-1 record, however they have played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They only really decent team they’ve faced this year was Notre Dame a few weeks ago and they were blasted 49-14 in that game. Tulane will definitely be the 2nd best team Army has faced this season. The only team they faced this season (besides Notre Dame) that ended the year with a winning record was ECU (7-5 record). The Cadets have been trending down over the last month or so struggling with North Texas (Army was outgained 5.1 YPP to 4.5 YPP in that game), they were creamed by Notre Dame, and last week struggled with UTSA (Army outgained 6.0 to 5.3). Tulane comes in off a loss vs Memphis last week but they completely outplayed the Tigers with a YPP advantage of 7.3 to 5.9. Three turnovers by the Green Wave (0 for Memphis) was the difference in that loss. Tulane had won 8 straight games prior to last week’s lost and the average score in those 8 wins was 43-15. The Wave have played the much tougher schedule yet they still have better YPG and YPP margins. Their defense matches up very well with the Army option attack as Tulane has held teams to just 124 YPG rushing this season and they already faced a similar attack vs Navy a few weeks ago and rolled the Midshipmen 35-0 holding them to 100 yards rushing. Green Wave 1st year head coach Jon Summerall has faced Army each of the last 2 seasons when he was the head man at Troy and the Cadets scored a total of 9 points in those 2 contests. Tulane is the much better team in this match up and we’ll lay the small number.

#106 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State -4.5 over Western Kentucky, Friday at 7 PM ET - These 2 just met last weekend @ WKY with the Hilltoppers pulling out a 19-17 win on a 50 yard FG as time expired. Western Kentucky rank 23 more offensive snaps in the game yet still needed a long FG with seconds remaining to get the win. WKY had everything to play for in that game needing a win to make it to this week’s CUSA Championship game while JSU was already locked into this game so not a ton to play for last week. Even with that, Jacksonville State outgained WKY 5.5 to 5.1 YPP. The Gamecocks completely dominated the ground game, as expected, rolling up 229 yards rushing on 5.9 YPC to Western Kentucky’s 105 yards rushing on 3.0 YPC. Now that JSU has everything to play for (a CUSA Championship) we see those numbers being even more lopsided this week. They rank 3rd in the nation in rushing averaging 257 YPG on 5.6 YPC and facing a Hilltopper defense that allows over 200 YPG rushing (123rd nationally). We need to keep an eye on Jacksonville State QB Huff who was banged up in last week’s game but all indications are he’ll play in this one. He left early in the 2nd half last week and despite the JSU still led the game, on the road, with only a few seconds remaining. Leading into last week’s game, WKY had been struggling to say the least losing back to back games vs Liberty and La Tech and failing to cover 4 straight. Despite the win last week, as we mentioned they were outplayed in the stats and we like Jacksonville State in this quick revenge spot.

#892 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia -9.5 over Georgetown, Friday at 7 PM ET - Georgetown is 7-1 on the season but they are taking huge step up in competition here. The Hoyas strength of schedule ranks 354th (out of 364 teams) per KenPom. On top of that all 8 of their games have been at home. The only team they’ve played that ranks in the top 220 is Notre Dame, that game was at home and Georgetown lost that game by 21 points. That was vs an Irish team that currently has a losing record at 4-5. West Virginia, on the other hand, has played the 23rd strength of schedule and their only 2 losses are vs high level opponents Pitt and Louisville in OT. The Mountaineers have already beaten Gonzaga (who ranks #4 per KenPom) and Arizona (top 30 per KenPom). WVU has had a full week off since returning from their Bahamas tourney where they went 2-1 facing 3 top 50 teams. West Virginia has the better eFG% both offensively and defensively despite facing the much tougher schedule. The Mountaineers are the much better 3 point shooting team (35% to 29%) and if they need to close this one out and the foul line they hit 76% of the freebies. Last season the Hoyas were just 3-21 SU away the last 2 seasons with from home with 16 of those 21 losses coming by at least 7 points. We like WVU by double digits here.

#101 ASA PLAY ON Green Bay Packers +3.5 over Detroit Lions, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - While Green Bay is fairly healthy right now coming off their win over Miami on Thanksgiving, Detroit is not. The Lions had defensive players dropping right and left in their 3 point home win last Thursday over Chicago. Detroit built a solid 16-0 first half lead and Chicago struggled to do anything on offense prior to the break (38 total yards in the first half). However, as Detroit started losing defensive players in the 2nd half, the Chicago offense took off scoring 20 points and putting up 259 yards after the break. The Lions defensive line was decimated and many of those players didn’t practice this week including 2 starters. Green Bay’s offense is peaking right now averaging 6.6 YPP over their last 3 games while putting up 29 PPG during that stretch. In their first meeting, the Packers only scored 14 points, however they racked up 411 total yards on 6.6 YPP and only punted twice. They had plenty of opportunities to put more points on the board and now with Detroit’s defense banged up they should have success here. Speaking of the first meeting a few weeks ago, Detroit won the game 24-14 but were outgained 411 to 262 (6.6 YPP to 4.7 YPP). The Packers also averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt to 6.0 for Detroit and 6.0 YPC rushing to 3.9 for the Lions. A clean sweep of the key stats for Green Bay. A Jordan Love pick 6 late in the first half changed the complexion of that game. Love has been much better at protecting the ball as of late with no turnovers the last 2 games. If the Packers don’t lose the turnover battle in this one, we give them a great shot at the upset. Take the points.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors +9.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - This feisty Raptors team is flying under the radar right now and is a competitive out every night. Toronto is 15-7 ATS this season, 8-2 ATS as a home dog with an average loss margin of just -0.1ppg. In their last five games the Raptors are 16th in Offensive Efficiency and 10th Defensively. They have an average +/- of +5.6ppg in their last five outings. Toronto has won their last four home games against quality competition including the Pacers twice, the Heat and the Timberwolves. OKC is one of the top three teams in the league with Cleveland and Boston and currently sit 16-5 SU on the season. As a road favorite, they are 5-4 ATS with an average +/- of +8.6ppg. In their last five road games the Thunder have 2 losses and only one win by more than this point spread. OKC is an average shooting team at 46.2% and relies heavily on volume shooting (3rd in FGA’s). Toronto ranks 7th in fast break efficiency defense and should limit the Thunders transition opportunities. This is a big number and we like the home dog plus the point.

#306586 ASA PLAY ON UT Rio Grande Valley -6.5 over Stephen F Austin, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - UTRGV continues to slide under most people’s radars but this team is very good. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS covering by an average of more than 10 PPG. They have played a very tough schedule already traveling to play @ Nebraska, @ Creighton, and @ Wisconsin. They took the Badgers to the wire losing 87-84 and UTRGV had the ball down 1 point with less than 15 seconds remaining in the game. The Vaqueros are averaging 87 PPG, they rank 65th in the nation in eFG%, make 12 three pointers a game (9th in the nation), and hit 76% of their FT’s and keep in mind that’s vs the 81st most difficult SOS to date. Stephen F Austin has played a much easier slate (292nd) and they still have 3 losses. All 3 of their wins vs D1 opponents have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower and this team really struggles on offense. Take out their 2 games vs non Division 1 opponents and the Lumberjacks are averaging only 59 PPG. They rank 329th in offensive efficiency, make only 56% of their FT’s, and turn the ball over at a ridiculous rate (27.4% which is 363rd out of 364 teams). SFA is going to have a hard time keeping up in this game so we’ll lay the points with UT Rio Grande Valley playing in just their 3rd home game of the season.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Montana +3 over South Dakota State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Montana is on a 3 game winning streak, they are 5-0 at home this year and they’ve been at home since November 19th so more than 2 full weeks. The Grizzlies are coming off a very good 24-12 record a year ago and they are really tough to beat at home winning 21 of their last 24 games in Dahlberg Arena. They’ve only been a home dog 1 time since the start of the 2022 season and the Griz won that game outright. They’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country thus far (43rd SOS per KenPom) and their 3 losses have come vs high level teams all on the road (Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah State). This is a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting line up. Tonight they face a very young South Dakota State team who is playing their first true road game of the season. The Jackrabbits start 2 freshmen and have 4 freshmen in their top 7 all playing their first true road game of their careers. They have a slightly better record (7-2) but they’ve also played the much easier schedule (236th per KenPom). While Montana has been at home for a few weeks, SDSU played 3 games in the Cayman Islands last week, came home for 1 game vs Dakota Wesleyan on Monday and now 2 nights later on the road again @ Montana. The last time these 2 faced off @ Montana was 2 years ago and in a pick-em game, the Grizzlies rolled to an easy 81-56 win. We don’t expect a blowout here, but we do like the home team to get the win.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +4 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - First off, scheduling favors the Hawks in this Eastern Conference showdown as the Bucks played a big game in Detroit last night while the Hawks are rested. Milwaukee beat the Pistons in Detroit to clinch a spot in the Cup Playoffs by winning their pod. The Bucks are 7-10-1 ATS their last eighteen games when playing without rest with an average +/- of +3.2ppg which doesn’t get a cover here. On the flip side, the Hawks are a profitable 12-8 ATS their last twenty when playing with a rest advantage and have an average +/- of +4.0ppg. Milwaukee is playing well right now with 7 straight wins, but the Hawks have reeled of 4 straight of their own, with a pair of those wins coming against the Cavaliers. Looking at each team’s last 5 games we find the Bucks have the 5th best eDIFF (Efficiency Differential) in the NBA at +10.4, but the Hawks are 8th at +6.3. How much will Giannis play in the second night of a B2B? Dyson Daniels is one of the best defensive guards in the league and will make Lillard work for every point tonight. Jalen Johnson is quietly putting together All-Star type numbers and returns home to Wisconsin and could have a big game. The 4-points is too attractive to pass up.

#680 ASA PLAY ON UConn -2 over Baylor, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - You can bet UConn will come out with some serious effort here at home after going 0-3 in their tourney in Hawaii a week ago. Head coach Danny Hurley was very upset with his team (and refs!), especially on the defensive end. They’ve heard all week how they a program in decline, don’t deserve to be in the top 25 poll, etc… This is their chance to save face, so to speak, vs a solid team. Baylor has 2 losses on the season and in their only true road game this season, the Bears lost by 38 points @ Gonzaga. They’ve really struggled on the defensive end ranking 355th defending the arc (out of 364 teams) and 331st in defensive efficiency. Being poor on that end of the court makes is really tough to win on the road. They are facing a Connecticut offense that has been very good ranking in the top 10 nationally in both eFG% and offensive efficiency. The Huskies have won 25 straight home games and only twice during that stretch were they favored by single digits at home. 23 of their last 25 home games UConn has been favored by at least 10 points. We’re getting value here due to their struggles in Hawaii. Baylor, despite their success, has won only 5 of their last 14 road games dating back to the last month of the 2022/23 season. We like UConn at home Wednesday night.

#658 ASA PLAY ON Clemson +2 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Tigers as a slight home favorite here so we like the value on Clemson as a dog. Kentucky has won their first 7 games of the season with 6 of those coming at home and another, vs Duke, on a neutral site in Atlanta. This will be their first true road game of the season which is always a tough spot especially vs a very good team like Clemson. Six of Kentucky’s seven wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 100 so their strength of schedule, besides Duke, hasn’t been great. The Tigers are 7-1 on the season with their lone loss @ Boise State. They are 5-0 at home and they’ve been really tough to beat in Littlejohn Coliseum winning 35 of their last 41 games in their own arena. The Kentucky offense is averaging a ridiculous 96 PPG on the season, however they’ve faced mainly poor defensive teams (5 of 7 ranked outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency) and they Cats have gotten the pace they want (fast – ranked 4th in adjusted tempo) vs most of the teams they’ve played. That changes here. Clemson will play this game at their much preferred slower pace and they really make opponents work on defense allowing a shot every 19.4 seconds (3rd longest in the nation). The Tigers rank 24th nationally in defensive efficiency and have held every opponent but 1 to less than 70 points. While we don’t expect Clemson to shut down this UK offense, they will do enough defensively to slow them down a make them uncomfortable in the half court. The Tigers offense is good enough to stay in this one as well ranking in the top 20 nationally in 3 point FG% and they shoot over 50% from the field at home. Kentucky has a huge game on deck vs Gonzaga so they could be peaking ahead. We like Clemson to pull the upset at home.

ASA NBA play on: NY Knicks -4.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - This game has NBA Emirates Cup implications as the Knicks need to win to get in, the Magic can win or lose by less than 30-points to make it in. Clearly it means more for New York. The Knicks have been at home and are coming off a blowout win over the Pelicans 118-85. After a slow start, the Knicks are starting to figure out their new rotations with KAT and Bridges. The Magic have been a huge surprise this season and have done it mainly without their best player in Banchero who has missed several weeks with an injury. Orlando is very good defensively but struggles on the offensive end of the court. Even though they have a better overall record at 15-7 SU compared to NY’s 12-8 SU record, the Knicks have the better eDIFF of +6.6 vs. +5.9. The Magic are 6-7 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -0.9ppg. New York is 6-2 SU at home with an average plus/minus of +14.1ppg. We like New York big in this one.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Colorado -16 over Pacific, Monday at 9 PM ET - Pacific comes in with a 5-4 record but their wins have come against 3 teams ranked 234th or lower and 2 non Division 1 teams (Jessup & Life Pacific). In their 3 games so far this season vs top 200 opponents, they’ve lost all 3 by an average of 21 points. In their 2 games vs very similar competition to tonight’s opponent Colorado, they lost by 22 vs Arkansas and by 35 vs Missouri. The Tigers are not a good shooting team ranking 255th in eFG% and 331st in 3 point FG% and that’s 4 of their 7 Division 1 opponents ranking outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. We think Pacific will struggle offensively vs the Buffs on the road here. Colorado should have an edge to them tonight after getting blown out by a very good Iowa State team in their most recent game last Wednesday. The Buffs beat UConn the night before that loss so they may have been a bit flat. CU has already faced 3 teams at home in a similar rating range as Pacific (Eastern Washington, Cal State Fullerton, and Harvard) and they won those games by 20, 30, and 22 points respectively. The Buffs have averaged 84 PPG in their 4 home games and we don’t see Pacific keeping up in this game.

#479 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles +3 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Eagles are rolling winning 7 in a row following their bye week back in early October. Their point differential during that 7 game run is +107 (+15.3 PPG) and they outgained all 7 of those opponents by more than 100 yards! The Eagles have a +115 YPG differential which is #1 in the NFL and their YPP differential is #2. The offense has scored at least 26 points in 6 straight games and the defense is #1 in total defense and #2 in YPP allowed. This stop unit has allowed only 1 team to top 23 points this season. Baltimore is on a short week after beating the Chargers in LA on Monday night and they have yet to get a week off playing for the 13th straight week. As good as the Ravens have been at times, they do have 4 losses on the season including setbacks vs the Browns and Raiders. Their offense has been outstanding but the Ravens defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL ranking 24th in total defense, 23rd in scoring defense, and 31st in pass defense. The loss of defensive coordinator McDonald to Seattle has had a big impact on that side of the ball. We think they’ll really struggle vs a Philly offense that is explosive putting up 24 more plays of 20 or more yards than their opponents, the largest margin in the league. The Eagles have been tabbed underdogs twice this season and they won both of those games outright and we think they have a solid shot again on Sunday. Both of these offenses are outstanding but we’re getting the much better defense with Philadelphia and we’re getting points. Take it.

#461 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +6 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Commanders got off to a red hot start winning 7 of their first 9 games but have hit a wall losing 3 straight. In hindsight, while they were winning, it maybe wasn’t as impressive as first thought with 6 of their 7 wins coming against teams that are currently below .500. Their one win over a decent team was vs Arizona (6-5 record) but their other 6 wins have come vs teams with a combined record of 18-51! It could be argued that today’s opponent, the Tennessee Titans, also fall into that “bad team” category. However, we like the way the Titans are playing solid right now winning 2 of their last 4 games including a win last week @ Houston and they outgained the Texans by more than 100 yards. Even in their 2 losses over the last month, vs Minnesota & LA Chargers (both playoff teams), Tennessee outgained both (YPP) but fell short. They have actually outgained their last 5 straight opponents (YPP) and despite their 3-8 record, they have a +0.1 YPP margin which is the same as the Chiefs & Chargers and better than the Steelers, Rams, and Dolphins to name a few. QB Levis has played much better with 3 of his top 4 QBR games coming the last month. The Titans defense remains very good ranking #2 in total defense, #3 in YPP allowed, and #2 in 3rd down defense. We think Washington’s offense, which has been heading downhill, struggles in this game. The Commanders are averaging 5.9 YPP on the season but only 4.9 YPP over their last 3 games including a loss at home vs a poor Dallas team last week as a 10 point favorite. Washington hasn’t covered a game in a month and we think Tennessee has a solid shot at the upset here. Take the points.

#372 ASA PLAY ON James Madison -3.5 over Marshall, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Marshall is on a 5 game winning streak but digging into the stats they have been very fortunate to say the least. The Herd have actually been outgained in 3 of those 5 wins and were dead even yardage wise in another. They’ve benefitted from opponent’s mistakes as they are +7 turnovers in those 5 games. On top of that, not one of their opponents during this 5 game run currently has a winning record. Now they run into a James Madison team that is 8-3 this season and they are a perfect 5-0 at home and they’ve win 15 of their last 17 home games. Marshall is playing their 2nd straight road game and they are 2-3 on the road this year and just 3-8 away from home since the start of last season. They will be facing a motivated JMU team who is coming off a loss @ App State as a 7 point favorite. The Dukes also have a chance to knock Marshall out of the Sun Belt Championship game as a win here puts the Herd in that game next week (extra pressure on the road team to win this one). Last week Marshall played @ ODU (who is now 4-7 on the season) and the line in that game was the Monarchs favored by 3. They were outgained in that game 513 to 469, ODU has 2 turnovers (0 for Marshall) and the Herd scored a late TD to win by 7. Now we’re getting nearly the same number @ JMU (currently -3.5) and the Dukes are a much better team than ODU (JMU was favored @ ODU just a few weeks ago). JMU is the better team across the board with better YPP, YPG, and YPC margins and playing in their home finale. Marshall is vastly overvalued right now with a 9-1 ATS record which is why we are getting this great value with JMU at home. Lay the small number with James Madison on Saturday night.

#421 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State +2.5 at Iowa State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is one of the best rivalries in all of college football and we expect Kansas State to upset the Cyclones on their home field in this Big 12 showdown. The Wildcats have the better overall differential at +0.9 Yards Per Play compared to Iowa State’s +0.6YPP, yet have played the much tougher overall schedule. We have maintained all season long that the Cyclones were over-rated and this is a great opportunity to step in with a bet against them. Kansas State has a huge rushing advantage in this game with an offense that averages over 209 rushing yards per game at an incredible 6.0 Yards per rush. Iowa State is vulnerable to strong rushing attacks as they allow over 176 rushing yards per game and a 5.1 yards per carry average which ranks 112th. The Wildcats are solid in all phases of the game defensively as they give up just 340YPG on the season (40th), 5.3YPP (50th) and 3.4 yards per rush (20th). Last season when these two teams met, Kansas State outplayed Iowa State with 22 more first downs, more total yards and a +24 minute TOP advantage but the Cyclones hit 5 touchdown plays of 60+ yards in their upset win. The dog has been the play in this series with an 80% cover rate going back 10 full seasons. The Wildcats pull the upset and get this road win.

#438 ASA PLAY ON USC +8 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line is too high in our opinion. USC was +3 to +3.5 at home vs Penn State this year and the game went to OT. We have PSU and ND rated within 1 point of each other yet we’re getting more than a TD in this one. ND has been rolling over opponents during their current 9 game winning streak but they haven’t played many good teams during that stretch. The best team they faced in that 9 game run was Louisville (who is currently 7-4) and while the Irish won that game at home, they were outgained by 115 yards. Speaking of playing at home, the Irish have not played a true road game since traveling to Purdue in mid September. They’ve played 3 neutral site games since then but not a true road game. The situation for the Irish isn’t great either as they played in NYC last week vs Army and now travel to the west coast this week while USC has basically been at home for the last 3 weeks (played @ UCLA across town last week and home vs Nebraska prior to that). The Trojans are much better than their 6-5 record with a YPP margin of +0.6 and a YPG margin of +65 playing a MUCH more difficult schedule than ND (15th SOS for USC and 65th for ND). USC has been unlucky to say the least with their 5 losses coming by a combined 19 points with none by more than a TD. Notre Dame has very rarely been dominant when facing USC in LA with only ONE win by more than a TD in the last 27 meetings on the west coast. We like USC getting more than a TD here.

#347 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +3 over Clemson, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Our power ratings have South Carolina as the better team that has played the significantly more difficult schedule but they still have better YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempts margins despite that. The Gamecocks have played a top 20 strength of schedule while Clemson ranks outside the top 60 in that category. SC has already played the likes of Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M and Missouri. They are on a solid 5 game winning streak entering this rivalry game and they’ve covered 5 of their last 6 games. SC has lost 7 of the last 8 (including last year) in this series so they will be motivated to turn the tables on Saturday. The best team Clemson played this season was Georgia and that was a 31 point blowout loss. Other than that, the Tigers have played only 2 teams that currently have a winning record, Louisville and Pitt. They lost by double digits at home vs the Cards and beat the Panthers by 4 despite getting outgained by almost 100 yards. We expect the Gamecocks to win in the trenches here with one of the top DL’s in the country allowing 2.9 YPG (7th nationally) and 4.6 YPP (8th nationally). They are facing a banged up Clemson offensive line that had problems having enough players up front to practice last week. On top of that, Clemson may have some extra added pressure here as they do have a shot at the CFB Playoffs with a win here despite their easy schedule. South Carolina would like nothing better than to end that dream and we think they do. The Gamecocks win this game.

#327 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +26 over Ole Miss, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - We were on Ole Miss last weekend @ Florida and missed that one badly. The Rebs were coming out of a bye and needed a big win to keep their CFB Playoff hopes alive. They laid an egg and lost as a double digit favorite and now their hopes are out the window. How do they respond here vs a 2-9 MSU team? We’re guessing the Rebels will be flat as a pancake with no CFB Playoff in their future. On the other sidelines, this is Mississippi State’s Super Bowl so to speak. They would like nothing more than to close out their season with an upset win over their rival. The Bulldogs have already shown the can hang with the big boys covering @ Georgia (lost by 10 as a 32 point dog), @ Tennessee (lost by 19 as a 26 point dog), vs Texas A&M (lost by 10 as a 21 point dog) and @ Texas (lost by 22 as a 30+ point dog). MSU has lost only 1 game all season by more than 24 points. In SEC play, Ole Miss has only 1 win by more than 24 points. The Bulldogs are still playing hard covering 5 of their last 7 games and they’ve covered all 4 of their games when a dog of more than 2 TD’s (see above). The last time Ole Miss beat Mississippi State by more than 17 points was back in 2008 and they’ve beaten MSU by more than this spread (currently 26) just 2 times since 1988. We expect the Bulldogs to hang around in this one and get the cover.

#306 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -9.5 over Chicago Bears, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET - Chicago has played much better at home the last 2 weeks but they still lost both games to Green Bay & Minnesota. Losing on a blocked FG vs the Packers and then in OT vs the Vikings had to take a lot out of this team both physically and emotionally. Even in those tight games, the stats were heavily in favor of the road games. Green Bay outgained Chicago 8.5 YPP to 5.8 YPP and Minnesota outgained the Bears 7.0 to 5.5 YPP. Those games could have and probably should have been easy wins for GB & Minnesota. Now Chicago going on the road, on a short week vs the best team in the NFL is a really tough spot. They aren’t playing for a whole lot right now as their playoff chances are less than 1% with a 4-7 record. The Lions just keep winning and covering week after week and we’re getting them at a nice price here (currently -9.5 as of this writing). The Lions are 9-2 ATS this season and now 44-18 vs the number since the start of the 2021 season. If Detroit was going to get clipped and play a poor game, last week @ Indy was a perfect spot for that to happen and they still dominated 24-6 outgaining the Colts by +120 yards. Detroit remains one of the top 3 teams in the NFL in YPP margin at +1.0 and Chicago has the 2nd worst YPP margin in the league at -1.1. The offense is rolling for Detroit scoring at least 40 points in 4 of their last 8 games & they’ve scored a TD on almost 36% of their possessions, by far the best in the NFL. Now they face a Chicago defense trending down allowing 6.8 YPP over their last 3 games. Favorites on Thanksgiving Day have been fantastic with a 38-19 ATS record since 2004. It’s always a tough spot for the road team playing on a Holiday and we like Detroit by double digits in this game.

#782 ASA PLAY ON Wichita State -1.5 over Minnesota, Thursday at 12 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Kissimmee, Florida. Minnesota has pretty much a new roster from last season (4 new starters and 5 of their top 7 players are new) and they have yet to play a game away from Williams Arena in Minneapolis. Despite playing all home games, this Gopher team hasn’t impressed. They lost at home vs North Texas and have a number of very close wins vs inferior competition. They beat Central Michigan (5th rated team in the MAC) on Monday by 3, beat Nebraska Omaha (8th rated team in the Summit League) by 4, and they came from double digits down to beat Yale by 3 points. Despite playing at home, Minnesota has not shot the ball well at all ranking 235th in eFG%, 244th in 3 points percentage (30%) and they make only 63% of their FT’s. We don’t expect those numbers to improve in their first road game vs a Wichita State team that is 5-0 and ranks in the top 85 in defensive efficiency and top 45 defending the arc. The Shockers have played a formidable schedule to date with 4 of their 5 opponents ranked inside the top 150. Minnesota has played only 2 teams ranked inside the top 150 (1-1 record) and 3 teams ranked outside the top 200. Wichita brings 3 starters back from last year and 60% of their minutes return which we factor in heavily early in the season. They don’t turn the ball over very much (12% which is 4th least in the country) and they get to the FT line a lot (26% of their points from the stripe). When they get there, they make them at a 76% clip which could be huge in what is projected to be a close game. Unlike Minnesota, the Shockers have played 2 games away from home this year beating Western Kentucky (4th rated team in CUSA) by 7 and they rolled a solid St Louis team by 25 points in Kansas City. The Gophs are the worst team in the Big 10 this year and we like Wichita to get the win and cover early on Thanksgiving Day.

ASA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -10 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 7:10 PM ET - The Cavs are 17-1 and currently 10-0 SU at home on the season. The Cavs are winning at home by an average of +14.7ppg this season and only 2 of those 10 home wins have come by less than 10-points. The Hawks are on a 3-game losing streak and are 3-6 SU away this season with a negative average point differential of minus -6.9ppg. Going back to the start of last season the Hawks have the worst road spread record in the NBA at 18-32 ATS with an average +/- of minus 6.1ppg. The Cavs beat the Hawks 3 of four games last season with the lone loss being a meaningless game in March. Cleveland won the 3 games by an average of 17.3ppg. The Cavs last four home games have been decided by +14, +28, +14 and +18. The Hawks last two road games have been losses to the Bulls and Warriors by -14 and -23. We like Cleveland to send a message to the Hawks tonight in the first game of the back-to-back series as these team meet again on Friday.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3 vs. Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - This is a Cup game and will have more meaning than a normal regular season game as the Rockets are 2-0 in Cup play, the T’Wolves are 1-1 and behind Houston in pool play. Minnesota has underachieved this season and stands 8-8 SU as they continue to adjust to a new lineup without Karl Anthony Towns. I’ll be honest, I’m not sold on Julius Randall long-term for the Wolves, but we’ll have to wait and see. Regardless, we like Minnesota big here at home against a Houston team that has faced a very weak schedule to get to 12-6 SU. Again, despite a schedule disparity, the Rockets with a winning record have a +8.6 eDIFF differential, compared to Minnesota who is +2.1 in eDIFF, yet are .500. Houston is starting to see some chinks in their armor as Jalen Green’s shooting is regressing after a hot start to the season. Green takes the most shots for the Rockets, but he makes just 38.2% of his field goal attempts. That coincided with the Rockets Offensive Efficiency ratings dropping from 1.128 to 1.106PPP in their last five games. Minnesota is 10th in OEFF on the season with the 4th best EFG% numbers in the NBA. Minnesota is coming off a close loss in Boston which was one of their better overall games of the season and we expect that momentum to carry over here. Minnesota is 5-2 SU at home this season and 38-18 SU dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of +7.4ppg. The Wolves beat this Rockets team 3 times last season with all three margins by more than tonight’s spread. Lay it with Minnesota.

#618 ASA PLAY ON Samford -10.5 over North Dakota State, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - We’re not sure NDSU can keep up on the road in this one. Samford averages over 90 PPG and their lowest point total this season was 75 and that was an 8 point loss @ Michigan State who ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs have scored at least 86 points in every other game this season. At home this offense has been lethal averaging 96 PPG in their last 21 home games dating back to the start of last season. In this game they are facing a North Dakota State defense that is allowing opponents to shoot 49% in their 3 road games this season, they rank 313th in defensive efficiency and 277th in eFG% allowed. On offense the Bison are not a great shooting team ranking outside the top 200 in both 2-point FG% and 3-point FG%. NDSU has hit only 32% of their triples this season yet they take a lot of them averaging 28 three point attempts per game. We don’t see them having success from deep here vs a Samford defense that has held their opponents to just 28% from beyond the arc. The way to beat the Bulldogs is by creating turnovers and hitting the offensive glass, two weaknesses of Samford. The problem in this game is, NDSU is last in the nation at creating turnovers and they aren’t a good offensive rebounding team (319th). Samford’s Hanna Center is a very tough place to play and long travel for NDSU. The Bulldogs have won 41 of their last 44 home games and they pick up an easy win tonight.

#879 ASA PLAY ON Auburn -3.5 over Iowa State, Monday at 9 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral site in Hawaii.  Both teams step into this game undefeated but Auburn has tested themselves early playing the much tougher schedule.  The Tigers have already faced 4 teams in the top 190 including Houston (#1 team in the nation per KenPom) and they topped the Cougars in Houston.  ISU, on the other hand, has faced the 364th most difficult schedule (per KenPom) with the teams they’ve faced so far ranking 364th, 360th, and 235th.  All those games were at home as well so the Cyclones will be playing in unfamiliar territory for the first time this season.  Despite playing a tough slate to date, Auburn ranks in the top 5 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They put up 74 points in a Houston defense that hasn’t allowed more than 45 points in any of their other games.  The Tigers lead the nation in eFG% and 2 point FG% while averaging 87 PPG.  Auburn has better eFG% numbers on both offense and defense despite the fact that ISU’s 3 opponents have a combined record of 0-14 vs Division 1 teams this season.  We’ll lay the small number with Auburn on Monday.

#273 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2.5 over LA Chargers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We like backing the Ravens off a loss in this one. They are 6-1 ATS the game following their last 7 SU losses. Their 18-16 loss @ Pittsburgh last week was very misleading as Baltimore outgained Pitt 6.1 YPP to 4.1 YPP. The Ravens also had 3 turnovers which led directly to half of Pittsburgh’s points (9) and they missed 2 FG’s. It was a game Baltimore should have won and we look for them to bounce back strong on Monday night. The Chargers have a solid 7-3 record but they’ve played the 30th ranked strength of schedule thus far and have just 1 win over a team that is currently above .500 (Denver). Their other wins have come against were Carolina, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Cleveland, Tennessee, and Cincinnati who have a combined record of 20-46. Despite their easy slate thus far, the Chargers YPP differential is +0.3 which is 10th in the NFL compared to Baltimore’s +1.5 YPP differential with is #1 in the league. LA is only outgaining their opponents on a YPG basis by +9 yards (Ravens are +69 YPG). The Charger defense has good overall numbers, however when they finally faced an offense with a pulse last week, the Bengals put up 452 yards and 27 points. We don’t see them slowing down this Raven’s offense that has been historically good to date averaging 7.0 YPP. To put that in perspective, over the last 20+ years, no team in the NFL has ended the season with a YPP of more than 6.7. Baltimore hasn’t been great as a heavy favorite when Lamar Jackson starts at QB, however as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog they are 25-6 ATS in the regular season.

#838 ASA PLAY ON North Texas -6.5 over Oregon State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Rough situation for Oregon State who is playing their first road game of the season after losing at home to archrival Oregon on Thursday. The Beavers were 6.5 point home dogs in that game and lost 78-75 blowing a double digit 2nd half lead in the process. Now they head out on the road where they have a terrible 2-31 SU record in true road games since the start of the 2021 season. Their opponent, North Texas, is a veteran team with an 8 man rotation of all juniors and seniors. This is a tough team that plays a slow pace and outstanding defense (38th in 3 point FG defense & 52nd in defensive efficiency). The Mean Green are 4-1 on the season and they’ve played a much tougher schedule than OSU (79th SOS compared to 320th for Oregon State). They are undefeated at home and have won 38 of their last 46 games at the Super Pit in Denton, TX. UNT has better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, they shoot the 3 at a higher percentage, they are one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (14th) and they turn teams over at a 21% rate (67th). They already have a win @ Minnesota and this is a big time home game for the Mean Green. Lay it.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -5.5 at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - We have learned our lesson of fading the Magic and will back them here against the Hornets as a road favorite. Looking at the Hornets recent schedule we see they were +2-point home dog to the Piston and +4 at home against the Bucks. Neither the Pistons or Bucks rank as high as the Magic in our power rankings. Orlando has the 3rd best Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +4.1. The biggest difference between these two teams is defensively as the Magic allow just 1.061-points per possession (3rd) compared to the Hornets who allow 1.160PPP (19th). Charlotte is a few spots ahead of the Magic in terms of OEFF but it’s marginal. Orlando has won 8 of their last nine games overall with 6 of those wins coming by double digits. Charlotte will be without starting PF Grant Williams tonight, which is significant considering the multiple injuries they already have. These two teams met earlier in November and the Magic won, going away 114-89. We like the Magic by 10+ tonight.

#263 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +7.5 over Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans continue to find ways to lose games, but we wouldn’t be surprised if they won this game outright. Tennessee has the 11th rated defense in terms of DVOA and give up the 4th fewest yards per play at 4.8YPP. The question surrounding the Titans each week is their offense and QB Will Levis. Levis has actually played well the last two weeks with 3 TD’s to 1 INT and completing 23/54 passes for 470 total yards. Tennessee’s offense is averaging just 4.9YPP for the season but they have improved that number to 5.5YPP in their last three games. Houston has regressed offensively in recent weeks going from 5.2YPP on the season to just 4.8YPP in their last three games. They put up big numbers last week against the Cowboys, but who doesn’t these days. Houston is very good defensively this season allowing just 4.9YPP but they had several key starters out this week with injuries. Tennessee’s last four losses have come against: Minnesota, LA Chargers, Detroit and Buffalo who all rate substantially better than Houston. The Texans are off a MNF win over instate Dallas and will letdown against this 2-win Titans team. Grab the points.

#252 ASA PLAY ON Indianapolis Colts +7.5 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a great buy low/sell high spot to fade the Lions and bet on the Colts. Detroit is rolling with a 9-1 SU/ 8-2 ATS record which has driven this number up above a touchdown. The Lions are coming off a 52-6 shellacking of the Jaguars and have a short week of prep for a Thanksgiving Day game and may not be entirely focused here. The competitive Colts are coming off a road win over the Jets which wasn’t a fluke as they outgained the New York by +0.1YPP. Colts QB Richardson played one of his best games in the NFL going 20/30 for 272 yards with a TD. Indianapolis, with Richardson under center, have now won 4 of his last five starts. The Lions have a few key injuries defensively and it's unrealistic to expect them to continue to play at this extremely high level. The Colts defense has the right zone-scheme to counter the Lions QB Goff who has struggled in games versus this system. Two weeks ago, against a similar defense, Goff threw 5 INT’s to Houston. The Colts have not been a home dog of more points this season and the Lions haven’t laid more than a TD on the road. The Colts running game which averages 4.5 per attempt should keep Indianapolis in this game from start to finish.

#258 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Commanders -10 over Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Cowboys have some big-time problems. Players are complaining about the coach, their defense has dropped way off from top 10 in YPP allowed last year to 30th this year, and their offense under backup QB Rush hasn’t been able to score (16 points in 2 games). If Dallas was going to rally and play well, it would have been at home during their last 2 games vs archrival Philadelphia and on Monday night in front of the whole world vs Houston. They didn’t rally to say the least. They looked terrible losing those games by a combined score of 68-16. Now they go on the road, on a short week after playing Monday night, vs a rested opponent. Washington played on Thursday and lost vs the Eagles. The Commanders will be hungry here after losing 2 straight (vs Pitt & Philly – 2 of the better teams in the NFL) and they were rolled twice by the Cowboys last season. The Dallas defense has allowed at least 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games and they are facing a Washington offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in total offense, YPP offense, and Rushing. Their running game is putting up 148 YPG and that plays directly into the Cowboys biggest weakness on defense as they rank 31st allowing 151 YPG rushing. The Commander’s defense has been trending up allowing 5.3 YPP over their last 3 and even better at home this year where they give up only 4.6 YPP. New Washington head coach Quinn was the Cowboys DC last year so he should have a pretty good idea on how to defend an already struggling offense. Mike McCarthy is just 13-31-1 SU and 14-31 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2017 and Dallas has a home game on Thanksgiving on deck so don’t be surprised if that’s the game they are more focused on. Something is wrong in Dallas and we think they get rolled here.

ASA play on LA Lakers -4.5 vs. Denver Nuggets – 10:40 PM ET - This has become a heated rivalry in the NBA, and to be honest, the Nuggets have dominated the Lakers with a 9-1 SU record the last ten meetings. Denver has eliminated the Lakers from the playoffs two straight years. LA catches the Nuggets off a game last night against the Mavericks in Denver. The Nuggets were down by as many as 24-points in that game, battled back and took a lead in the 4th Q, only to lose by 3-points. The Lakers meanwhile were home resting following a loss on Thursday at home to the Magic. LA is now 7-1 SU on their home court with an average +/- of +7.3ppg. When betting on the Lakers its always important to know if their star players are going to play or show up for a game which will be the case tonight in this revenge spot against Denver. The Nuggets expended a ton of energy last night and will have a tough time getting back up for this game in Los Angeles.

#144 ASA TOP PLAY ON Old Dominion -2.5 over Marshall, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is a huge game for ODU who needs to win their last 2 games to get to 6 wins and bowl eligible. The Monarchs are coming off a 35-32 home loss vs James Madison, one of the top teams in the Sun Belt. ODU actually outplayed JMU in the stats averaging 6.3 YPP to 5.7 YPP. A week earlier, ODU lost @ App State 28-20 but outgained the Mountaineers by more than 100 yards but had 4 turnovers. Prior to that the Monarchs were on a roll winning 3 in a row all by 7+ points and despite losing their last 2, they are still playing very well. We could conceivably be looking at a 5 game winning streak for Old Dominion. Marshall did the opposite last week. They beat Coastal Carolina at home but were outgained by more than 1.0 YPP in that win. The Herd scored a TD on a blocked punt and also had a 2 yard TD drive after a Coastal turnover (CC had 3 turnovers). Marshall has very rarely ventured on the road as of late with 5 of their last 7 games coming at home. They’ve only played 2 conference road games so far beating USM, the worst team in the Sun Belt, and losing @ Georgia Southern. The Herd are 5-1 in conference play in 1st place in the Sun Belt East yet are underdogs vs ODU who is 3-3 in conference play and 4-6 overall? It’s the Monarch’s home finale and we like them to win and cover on Saturday keeping their bowl hopes alive.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +9.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The O/U on this game is very low at 206.5 which makes the points available in this game even more attractive than normal. First off, the Pistons will be a man short tonight with Cade Cunningham out with an injury. Typically, when a team loses an important piece like Cunningham, the player filling in for him rises to the occasion in that first game. The Pistons will insert Malik Beasley into the starting lineup who has been playing well off the bench averaging 15.5ppg, 3.2rpg and 1.6apg. Detroit is much better this season with a 7-10 SU record and an average margin of victory of minus -1.2ppg. That number is significantly better than the -9.1ppg differential they had last season. Detroit is 11th in defensive efficiency rating and hold teams to an average of 111.6ppg. Of the Pistons 10 losses this season only 3 have come by more than 10-points. Orlando is playing really well right now, but they are also coming off a tough 3-game West Coast Road trip and an upset win over the Lakers in their most recent game. The Magic are 10-7 SU with an average +/- of +3.6ppg. In a low scoring game we will grab the points with the live underdog.

#141 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi -11.5 over Florida, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Ole Miss is coming off a bye after dominating Georgia 2 weeks ago 28-10. They outgained the Bulldogs in that win by 150 yards and held them to just 59 yards rushing in 1.8 YPC. That a UGA team many still consider among the best few in the country as they’ve already beaten Texas on the road by double digits and beat Tennessee by 2 TD’s last week. The Rebs absolutely dominated that game and with 2 losses, they need to win out to make sure they are included in the College FB playoff. While Ole Miss is rested off a bye, the Florida defense could be in trouble here as they were on the field for 42 minutes and a whopping 92 plays last week in their win over LSU, a game the Tigers outgained the Gators. Now they face an up tempo Rebel offense that ranks 2nd nationally in total offense, 2nd in YPP, and averages 41 PPG. The previous 2 weeks Florida lost by 2 TD’s to UGA and by 32 points vs Texas. Gator true freshman QB Lagway isn’t 100% (hamstring) and will have problem vs a great Ole Miss defense that ranks 6th nationally in YPP allowed and 2nd in rush defense giving up only 79 YPG on the ground. Lagway didn’t have a rushing attempt last week which simply solidifies the fact he’s not 100%. Teams simply can’t run on the Rebels which will put a lot of pressure on Lagway to make plays through the air to stay in this game. He’s been pretty average this year for the most part completing only 58% of his passes with 7 TD’s and 5 picks. The Ole Miss defense is in the top 5 nationally in pressure rate which will make it tough on the young QB, especially if they can’t run the ball which we’ve stated we don’t think they will. Ole Miss is an impressive +3.2 YPP margin vs very good competition (Florida is +0.7 YPP). The Rebels are good enough to win the National Championship this year but they need to win out to have a chance. They’ve already won 3 true road games by 24+ points and we see another one here.

#842 ASA PLAY ON Arizona -1 over Duke, Friday at 10:30 PM ET - Arizona is coming off a 103-88 loss at Wisconsin but they’ve had a full week to let that stew and get ready for this game vs Duke. In that loss, the Wildcats shot 38% from field, 17% from 3 (4 of 23) and made 28 of 40 FT’s. Wisconsin shot 48% overall, 44% from 3 and 41 of 47 FT’s. Arizona destroyed the Badgers on the boards 44 to 27 and we expect them to have the advantage on the glass again tonight but they should shoot MUCH better at home. Duke is a very young team with 3 freshmen in their starting line up and they are playing their first true road game of the season. Their only game this season played away from Cameron Indoor Stadium was vs Kentucky in Atlanta and the Blue Devils lost that game 77-72. Kentucky is solid but they have an entirely new roster and a new head coach so they are figuring things out early in the season. Duke now makes they long travel west for the first road game vs an Arizona team that is almost unbeatable at home winning 51 of their last 54 home games. Not that Duke is looking past Arizona, but they do have another huge game on deck vs Kansas. We think this inexperience Blue Devil team will be very good but may take some time to figure things out, especially on the road early in the season. Zona has had a week to think about their poor effort @ Wisconsin and we like them to get the home win and cover on Friday night.

#818 ASA TOP PLAY ON Southern Indiana +3.5 over South Dakota, Friday at 8 PM ET - Tough spot for South Dakota who just played @ Western Michigan on Wednesday night and now on the road 2 days later. They beat WMU 80-76 thanks in part to 8 more FT’s made but the Coyotes got creamed on the boards 53 to 38. The Broncos shot only 18% from deep (4 of 22) so with that stat and the extra FT’s made, South Dakota was a bit fortunate to come away with the win. They were favored by 2.5 on the road in that game and now 2 nights later they are favored by 4 (opening number) on the road vs a team that is power rated higher than Western Michigan. We can’t expect a team that has been terrible on the road (South Dakota is 5-24 SU on the road since the start of the 2022 season) to not only win back to back road games, but win this one by more than 4 points. Southern Indiana has had a full week off to get ready for this one and while they are 1-4 on the season, some of their losses have been pretty solid if that’s a thing. They lost @ DePaul (who is currently undefeated) in OT and lost to a very solid mid major program, Bucknell, also in OT. This is just their 2nd home game of the season and the Eagles have to feel they have a great shot to get a home win here. Neither team has been good defensively (both outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency) but Southern Indiana has shot the 3 ball much better (37% to 29% for South Dakota) and they are the better FT shooting team (74% to 65% for South Dakota). We look for this veteran USI team (6 upperclassmen in their top 7) to pick up a win tonight and even if they don’t, we can’t see South Dakota winning this one by margin. Take the points.

ASA top play on Brooklyn Nets +6 at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - Despite being a dominant player in the NBA (when he plays), It’s become evident that Joel Embiid is a cancer on any roster. The Sixers are 2-12 SU this season, 3-11 ATS and don’t compete on a nightly basis. Philly has the 4th worse Efficiency Differential at -9.1 compared to Brooklyn who has an eDIFF of -3.1. Consider this, the Nets have been +8.5 and +10 at New York recently and are now catching +6-points at Philadelphia? The feisty Nets are 10-4-1 ATS this season and have been competitive in road losses at New York by 10 and 2-points, at Cleveland by 5 and Boston by 4-points all in the last month. The 76ers have one home win this season over the Charlotte Hornets by 2-points in OT. Brooklyn beat this Sixers team twice last season and can easily win this road date tonight. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4.5 vs Orlando Magic, 10:30 pm ET - The Magic are in a tough scheduling spot here with this being the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. They are coming off a loss last night to the Clippers 93-104 and trailed by as many as 18-points in that game. The Magic have gotten off to a solid 9-7 SU start and are winning with their defense. The Magic rank 2nd in Defensive Efficiency allowing just 1.046 points per possession. Orlando’s offense has struggled though, ranking 25th in Offensive Efficiency. A tired Magic defense will have a tough time slowing down the Lakers offense that is 4th in points per possession at 1.184 and has scored 120 or more points in 4 of their last five games. Los Angeles has added a viable perimeter scoring option in Dalton Knecht who gives them the 3-point threat they desperately needed. The Lakers are 8th in team EFG% compared to the Magic who rank 25th in that stat category. Yes, the Lakers defense is not good, but this is a game where they can simply outscore a tired opponent. Orlando is 15-16 ATS their last 31 when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.5ppg. Lastly, when we take a closer look at the Magic’s road results we see they have a 1-6 SU record on the road against similar competition to the Lakers. Overall, the Magic have a negative road point differential of minus -6.1ppg, the Lakers home differential is an average of +8.4ppg.

#728 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Pick'em over Memphis, Thursday at 10 PM ET - This is a tough situational spot for Memphis. They make the long travel to San Francisco, and they leave right after this game for Hawaii and face National Champ UConn on Monday in the Maui Invitational. On top of that this is a late start at 10 PM ET. The Tigers may not be fully focused here and if not, they will lose this game in our opinion. The Dons were a solid 23-11 last season and they bring back a bunch of their key players from that team with 3 starters back and 4 of their top 6 scorers from last season. Nearly 60% of their minutes return. This is a huge game for USF vs a national brand type team with Memphis coming to town so this veteran squad (4 seniors in the starting line up) will be fully focused. Memphis is talented but they bring nearly a completely new team to the court this season with 7 of their top 8 players coming from the transfer portal. We think this team will have their ups and downs with a below average coach, Penny Hardaway, at the helm. Especially in tough situations like this. Memphis has hit nearly 50% of their 3 point shots so far this season and that has to regress on the road vs a very good defensive team. USF ranks 23rd in eFG% allowed and in the top 70 in defensive efficiency (ranked in top 40 in defensive efficiency last season). While this is not the Dons actual home court (Golden State Warriors home court in San Francisco) they do play here a few times during the season so they are used to this venue. In games played at their home court and here last season USF was 15-2 with their only 2 losses coming vs Gonzaga (27-8 record last season) and St Mary’s (26-8 record last season). We think San Francisco has a solid coaching edge here as well with Chris Gerlufsen sporting a very good 47-15 record in his 3 seasons here. We’ll call for USF to get the outright win on Thursday.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Browns +3.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re catching Cleveland coming off an embarrassing road performance @ New Orleans, a game they were actually favored and lost 35-14.  That was a bit misleading as the game was tied 14-14 in the 4th quarter.  Despite only scoring 2 TD’s the offensive numbers for the Browns were solid putting up 443 yards on over 6.0 YPP in that loss.  They had opportunities missing 2 FG’s and getting shut out on downs twice inside New Orleans territory.  The defense was embarrassed as the entered last weekend allowing just 328 YPG but gave up 473 yards to New Orleans.  We look for that unit to bounce back strong at home vs their arch rival.  Pittsburgh is in a rough spot coming off a hard fought 18-16 home win over Baltimore pushing the Steelers into 1st place in the AFC North.  They were extremely fortunate in that game as Pitt was outgained by a full 2.0 YPP (6.1 YPP for Baltimore to 4.1 for Pitt) but benefitted from 3 Raven turnovers and 2 missed FG’s.  Off that huge win we would expect a bit of a letdown going on the road on a short week.  The Steelers, in fact, have a 7-14 ATS record under Tomlin the game after beating the Ravens.  On top of that, AFC North underdogs have been money in the bank with a 26-16 ATS record since 2021.  Cleveland showed us just a few weeks ago that can get it done at home as a division dog beating Baltimore 29-24 and outgaining the Ravens as well so it was no fluke.  Believe it or not, Pittsburgh has never won a division road game on Thursday night (short week) going 0-7 SU in that role.  The weather looks dicey on Thursday night with rain/snow mix and strong winds.  That should lead to a lower scoring game making the points (especially above 3) more valuable.  The host has won and covered 5 straight in this rivalry and Pittsburgh has only won once in their last six trips to Cleveland.  This is just a bad spot for Pittsburgh and Cleveland would like nothing more than to knock off their rival at home tonight.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +8 at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - The Hawks are playing above expectations this season in large part because of better defensive play. They aren’t great defensively by any means as they allow 1.163-points per possession, but that is lower than the 1.194PPP they gave up last season. They rank 22nd in DEFF this season after ranking 26th a year ago. Dyson Daniels for the Hawks is a big reason for the defensive uptick for the Hawks with 44 steals to start the season, most in the league. Atlanta has a negative point differential of minus -3.4ppg and have been ultra-competitive in recent weeks with 5 of their last seven games decided by 5-points or less. In their last five road games they have impressive wins over the Celtics and Kings along with a victory in New Orleans and two close losses at Portland and Detroit. One aspect I don’t like regarding this bet is the fact that the Warriors are coming off a loss. Golden State is 19-19 ATS their last 38 when coming off a loss with an average margin of +3.2ppg. The Hawks/Warriors have split the last four games and only one of those games was decided by more than tonight’s point spread. Grab the points with Atlanta.

ASA NBA top play on Chicago Bulls +8 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - We backed the Bucks the other night and lost when they hosted the Rockets and won but failed to cover the -3.5-point spread. Milwaukee is just not the team everyone expected them to be this season with a 5-9 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.1ppg (19th). The Bulls are 6-9 SU this season and have already beaten this Milwaukee team this season by double-digits on this same court. Looking at the Efficiency Differential for each team we find there isn’t as big a difference as this line would suggest. The Bucks are -2.4 in eDIFF, the Bulls are -5.8. Last season in four meetings these two teams played overtime twice in close games and the other two were decided by 9 and 16-points. That was without Zach Lavine in the Bulls lineup. LaVine is averaging over 21ppg, over 3 made 3-pointers per game, 4 assists per game and over 5 rebounds per game. Chicago has won 3 of their last four road games outright with the lone loss in that stretch coming at Cleveland. We expect a close game throughout and will grab the points with the Bulls.

#107 ASA PLAY ON Ohio +2.5 over Toledo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These teams are battling to get to Detroit for the MAC Championship.  Ohio has the edge now with a 5-1 conference record while Toledo sits at 4-2.  We like the Bobcats to control the line of scrimmage and ground game here which will go a long way on what is supposed to be a rainy and windy night in Toledo.  Ohio is tied for 1st place with Miami Oh and Bowling Green and the Bobcats have the best point differential in the league at +109 in conference games.  Toledo has a point differential of just +15 and is 1 game out of first place.  The Bobcats have the MAC’s #1 defense allowing just 260 YPG and they are allowing only 15 PPG which also ranks 1st.  Ohio is also solid on the other side of the ball ranking 2nd in the MAC in total offense and 1st in rushing offense putting up 215 YPG on the ground.  Toledo is just 8th in the MAC in total offense and 5th in total defense.  The Rockets can’t run the ball at all ranking outside the top 100 in YPG on the ground and YPC.  They are facing an Ohio defense that allows only 3.4 YPC (23rd nationally) and they give up barely 100 YPG rushing.  These 2 MAC foes have played nearly identical strength of schedules this season and Ohio is better in almost every category.  The Bobcats have a +1.1 YPP margin (Toledo is +0.6) and Ohio has a YPC margin of +1.8 (Toledo is +0.0 YPC).  The Rockets do have the edge passing the ball, however with windy weather expected (20+ MPH winds in the forecast as of Tuesday) we’ll take the team that should dominate the ground game.  We’re on the Bobcats plus the points. 

#642 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana -4.5 over Rice, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - Louisiana has played one of the tougher schedules in the nation early in the season. They faced the MAC favorite Kent and lost by 4 and faced Houston (a top 5 type team) on the road on Saturday and got destroyed. It was a tough spot for ULL as Houston was coming off a rare loss vs Auburn so the Cougs were out for blood. Off that embarrassing loss, we look for Louisiana to play very well at home tonight. Rice, on the other hand, has played one of the easiest schedules to date facing 3 teams ranked outside the top 280 and 2 of those opponents rank outside the top 300. The one good team they faced was Florida State and they lost that game in Houston, This will be the Owls first road game of the season. Rice is a team with a new coach and mainly new players with only 20% of their minutes returning for last season. Only 1 returning player in their top 6 and with the players learning a new system, we expect their first road game to be a tough one. The Ragin Cajuns were the 5th best team in the Sun Belt last year and they return 50% of their minutes from a year ago. Their coaching staff is also stable with head coach Bob Marlin returning for his 16th season and he’s been very successful with a career record of 492-322 at Sam Houston and ULL. The Cajun Dome is a very tough place for visitors to win with Louisiana winning 26 of their last 29 games here. Rice hasn’t shot the ball well ranking 237th in eFG% and 254th in adjusted efficiency despite facing 3 defenses already this season ranked outside the top 200 in efficiency. And those games were at home. We look for them to struggle offensively and a hungry Louisiana team to get the home win and cover.

ASA NBA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -3 vs. Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - At some point the Bucks are going to pop and play like the team that was projected to win 50+ games. This is a spot they could certainly ‘get right’ with a home win over a solid Western Conference team in the Rockets. Houston is playing the second night of a back-to-back after defeating Chicago by 36-points yesterday. This will also be the Rockets’ 3rd game in four days and 4th in six which is tough to overcome. Milwaukee meanwhile is off an upset loss in Charlotte on Saturday after a missed call late in the game cost them the ‘W’. Consider this, the Bucks were favored by 2-points earlier this month at home against the Cavaliers who might be the best team in the NBA and are now laying nearly that same number against the Rockets. This is a perfect opportunity to buy low on the Bucks who are 69-25 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.2ppg since 2022. In that same time frame the Rockets are 26-62 SU on the road with a negative point differential of minus -6.4ppg. Yes, this Houston team is improved and playing well but Giannis and the Bucks should get this home win by 6+ points.

#306625 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rio Grande Valley +19.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Badgers left it all on the court Friday night when they topped #9 Arizona 103-88. It was an all-in game for Wisconsin after getting embarrassed last year @ Arizona. It was a game they had circled and played about as well as they could play shooting almost 50% from the field, 44% from beyond the arc and they made a whopping 41 FT’s in the game (40% of their total points). Now just a few nights removed from that court storming win, they face a no-name Texas Rio Grande Valley team that is actually pretty good. They lost at Nebraska by 20 but the Huskers made 19 more FT’s in the game and it was a misleading final as it was just a 4 point margin with under 5:00 to play. TRGV also gave #14 Creighton all they could handle on the road losing by just 13 despite a 20 point deficit at the foul line. This team likes to shoot 3’s and they make nearly 12 per game (19th nationally). The Vaqueros (whatever that is) have some momentum after losing the 2 games discussed above and enter this one off 3 straight wins. They are a veteran team that goes 9 to 10 deep with 7 of those players being upperclassmen. Wisconsin’s will travel to West Virginia later in the week to play in a tournament that includes Pitt, LSU, and UCF and we just don’t see them being completely focused on this game. Badgers win but don’t cover this big number.

#471 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals +2 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Cincinnati is in must win mode here. With their 4-6 record, the Bengals currently sit in the 9th spot in the AFC playoff race (top 7 teams make it) but a loss here and they only have a 14% chance of making the post-season. A win gives them a 40% chance so this is basically a win at all costs game. They have extra time to get ready after losing @ Baltimore 35-34 last Thursday. The Bengals are 3-2 on the road and their 2 losses away from home came by a single point vs Baltimore & KC, arguably the 2 best or 2 of the 3 best teams in the NFL. Cincy led both of those games in the 4th quarter and had their chances to win in both. They’ve been competitive in every loss with the exception of Philadelphia with 5 of their 6 losses coming by a combined 16 points. A few breaks here and there and this team could have a much better record. The Chargers are sitting with a 6-3 record but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL to date (30th ranked SOS so far). Their wins have come vs Carolina, Las Vegas, Tennessee, Cleveland, New Orleans and Denver, not a single team in that group currently above .500. All of those teams have offenses that rank in the bottom half of the NFL and 5 of those 6 rank 22nd or lower in scoring. Now they face a Cincinnati team that can put points on the board (6th in scoring) and is rolling on offense scoring 75 points the last 2 weeks. Despite playing the tougher schedule and having the worse record, the Bengals have a better YPP differential. Joe Burrow is 15-6 ATS in his career as an underdog and he has been fantastic this season leading NFL in passing yards to go along with 24 TD’s (1st in the league) and just 4 picks. He has torched zone defenses in his career and the Chargers play a top 5 rate of zone defense. He also gets WR Higgins back this week so this offense should be full strength. LA doesn’t have much of a home field advantage and we like the Bengals to win this game outright.

#464 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee Titans +6 over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Titans are 1-8 ATS this season and because of that we’re getting some solid value with this number. Tennessee has actually been favored in each of their last 3 homes games vs New England, Indy, and Green Bay believe it or not. They were just +8 on the road @ the LA Chargers which would make LA around a 2 point favorite @ Tennessee. They were +10 @ Buffalo which would make the Bills around -4 if played at Tennessee. You get the point they are now getting nearly a full TD from a Minnesota team that is trending down according to our power ratings. After winning their first 5 games, the Vikings are just 2-2 their last 4 with an 8 point home win over Indy and a 5 point road win last week vs a Jacksonville team that was without QB Lawrence. The Minnesota offense has taken a big step back after averaging 29 PPG over their first 4, they have been held to 23 or less in 4 of their last 5 games and they are averaging 21 PPG during that stretch. QB Sam Darnold has come back to earth as well after a hot start with 4 of his QBR games coming in the last 5 contests. The Vikes are facing a very good Tennessee defense that ranks #1 in the NFL in pass defense, #2 in total defense, and #3 in YPP allowed. We look for Minnesota’s offense to continue their struggles. The Titans lost @ LA Chargers last week 27-17 but outgained LA on a YPP basis. They also rushed for 6.3 YPC vs a Charger defense that came into last week’s game allowing 4.7 YPC. The Titans actually have a dead even YPP differential which would normally equate to a much better overall record as this team has been unlucky. Tennessee looks pretty healthy right now and they are happy to be home playing just their 2nd home game since October 13th. A low scoring game is expected with this total currently sitting in the high 30’s so getting a full 6 points is even more valuable. We like Tennessee to keep this close and have a shot at the upset.

#453 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Browns +1 or Pick'em over New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Good spot for the Browns coming off a bye facing a Saints team that had a division game last week vs the Falcons. New Orleans ended their 7 game losing streak and won the game 20-17 but they were outgained by more than 100 yards. New Orleans QB Carr was very comfortable (0 sacks for Atlanta) vs a Falcon defense that can’t put any pressure on the QB. They rank dead last in pressure rate and sack percentage averaging less than 1 sack per game. Now Carr, whose splits are much worse vs pressure as to be expected, faces a rested Cleveland defense that ranks in the top 5 in sack percentage. It should be a different story for the Saints offense this week after they were only able to put up 20 points vs basically no pressure last Sunday. Off the bye we’re hearing Cleveland is as healthy as they’ve been all season. We expect the Browns to have some offensive success here vs a banged up New Orleans defense that ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.0 YPP. Cleveland beat Baltimore 2 weeks and ago and they’ve actually outgained 2 of their last 3 opponents with QB Winston in the line up. Their offense has averaged 343 YPG of the last 3 (up 75 yards from season total) and they are up +0.4 YPP as well over their last 3. Winston has brought some life to this offense and he should have some extra incentive here after the Saints basically cut him loose in the off-season. New Orleans fired their head coach prior to last week’s game and that often gives a team the 1 game jump. We wouldn’t even call it that last weekend as the Saints were outplayed but came away with a tight win. They come back to earth Sunday and we like the Browns to win this game.

#664 ASA PLAY ON Towson -3 over James Madison, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Love this spot for a veteran Towson team.  They have 2 losses this season, both to top 60 teams on the road.  They lost @ St Mary’s by 7 and just lost @ South Carolina by 26 points as a 7 point dog so a very poor performance.  Now they get a chance to bounce back Saturday at home vs a James Madison team that is going through massive changes.  The Dukes lost their head coach Mark Byington to Vandy and they return only 11% of their minutes from last season.  New head coach Preston Spradlin is dealing with 7 new transfers in their top 8 players.  JMU is 2-1 on the season but in their only road game they lost by double digits at Norfolk State who ranks outside the top 200 per KenPom.  Towson has a huge edge in continuity which is extremely important early in the season as most teams are trying to mesh their new players (see James Madison).  The Tigers return 4 starters from last season and 82% of their minutes (3rd most in the country) are back from a team that was 20-14 last year.  Towson struggled shooting in their 2 losses but those were vs high level defensive teams both ranked in the top 75 in defensive efficiency so far this year and for the season last year.  Now they are in a comfortable spot at home facing a JMU defense that currently ranks 355th in eFG% defense vs Ohio & Norfolk State so we look for the Towson offense to look much better on Saturday.  The Dukes have relied heavily on the 3 point shot early in the year with 62 attempts in their 2 games vs Division 1 opponents.  Now they are on the road vs a Towson team that defended the arc very well last season and it allowing just 27% from deep this year vs St Mary’s and South Carolina.  Always more difficult so shoot well on the road in an unfamiliar arena and JMU should struggle.  We like Towson to play with a purpose after a loss earlier this week and they cover this short number at home where they’ve won 21 of their last 23 games.

#382 ASA TOP PLAY ON South Carolina -13 over Missouri, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET - South Carolina is playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now with 3 straight wins all by at least 21 points. Two weeks ago at home they rolled Texas A&M 44-20 putting up 530 yards on one of the better defenses in the country. Last week was a prime letdown spot for the Gamecocks traveling to Vandy off their big A&M win. SC dominated again 28-7 outgaining the Commodores by 175 yards. That’s a Vandy team that beat Bama, nearly beat Texas (lost by 3), and took this Missouri team to OT on the road before losing by 3. On top of that, South Carolina could easily have wins over LSU (lost by 3 on a late LSU TD) and Alabama (lost by 2 @ Bama but outgained the Tide). The only team that really outplayed the Gamecocks was Ole Miss who just beat Georgia by 18 points. Missouri is the opposite situation. They have a good record (7-2) but could easily have a few more losses. They’ve had a few things go their way beating Auburn late by 4, beating Vandy in OT, and beating a way down Oklahoma team last week on a fumble return TD with 30 seconds left in the game. Their offense has really struggled (97th in YPP) and will most likely be without starting QB Cook who has a bad ankle and a hand injury. Even if he plays he’s not at 100%. His back up Pyne is not good to say the least. Facing one of the best defensive teams in the nation will make it really tough on this already below average offense. SC’s defense has allowed less than 10 points in FIVE games already this season and we wouldn’t be surprised if they do the same to Mizzou here. Comparable opponents results aren’t even close. SC beat A&M by 24, Missouri lost to A&M by 31. SC beat Vandy by 21 on the road and Mizzou topped Vandy in OT by 3 at home. SC beat Oklahoma by 29 on the road and Missouri just beat OU by 7 at home on a fumble recovery as mentioned above. SC lost @ Bama by 2, Missouri last at Bama by 34. You get the point. This one should be an easy win at home for the Gamecocks.

#397 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +2.5 over Illinois, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - We think MSU is the better team despite records (Illinois is 6-3 & MSU is 4-5) so we’ll grab the points.  MSU has a better YPP margin (+0.1 to -0.1) and YPG margin (+22 to -10) despite playing the tougher schedule (12th SOS for MSU & 45th for Illinois).  Sparty is 4-5 on the season and they have plenty of motivation needing to win 2 of their last 3 games to be bowl eligible.  3 of their 5 losses have come vs OSU, Oregon, and Indiana who have a combined record of 28-1.  Both are coming off a bye week but we give MSU the advantage in that spot giving the coaching edge to the Spartans Jonathan Smith.  When Michigan State came off their first bye week back in early October, they rolled over a good Iowa team 32-20 and outgained them by almost 200 yards.  When Illinois came off their first bye week in early October, they needed OT at home to get by a terrible Purdue team.  The Illini have fallen off drastically since their 4-0 start going 2-3 their last 5 games and lucky to have those 2 wins to be honest.  They beat an average Michigan team at home but needed 3 Wolverine turnovers (0 for Illinois) to do so as they were outplayed in the stat sheet in that game.  They also nearly lost to Purdue, as we mentioned above, winning 50-49 in OT at HOME.  The Boilers actually ran 17 fewer offensive snaps in that game but outgained the Illini on a YPP basis.  That’s the same Purdue team that has already lost 6 games this season by 17 points or more.  We like the Spartans to win this one so we’ll take the points.

ASA top play on Washington Wizards +9.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - The Wizards are 2-8 SU this season and the two wins have come against this Hawks team back in October. Washington matches up well with the Hawks and can stay within this margin for the third time this season. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS at home this season as a favorite, 1-6 ATS overall with a negative point differential of minus -5.4ppg. We don’t think a team with these credentials should be laying nearly double-digits against anyone in the league. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league with the Hawks allowing 1.182-points per possession while the Wiz give up 1.197PPP. Washington should have success from beyond the arc with the 11th best 3PT% in the NBA going up against a Hawks defense that ranks 28th in 3PT% against. Atlanta is coming off a huge road win in Boston and could suffer a hangover effect here. Washington has lost four straight on this current road trip but three of those teams were better than Atlanta. We like the dog here and the points.

#858 ASA PLAY ON Furman -3.5 over Tulane, Friday at 7 PM ET - Head coach Bob Richey has built a very solid program at Furman in his 7 years at the helm. The Paladins have won at least 20 games in 5 of his 7 seasons and he’s never had a losing season. This year he has some continuity with 53% of his minutes returning and 4 of the 5 starters are returning players from last season. Furman is 3-0 on the season topping 2 teams ranked in the top 200 including a win @ Belmont one of the better mid major programs in the country. Tulane, on the other hand, hasn’t played a team ranked in the top 300 this season. They are 3-0 playing all home games topping Louisiana Christian, UL Monroe (ranked 328th) and Alcorn State (ranked 355th). This is a huge step up on competition for the Green Wave and on the road for the first time. On the other hand, Furman has already played and beaten 2 teams that are in the same range (power rating) as Tulane. The Green Wave only have 9% of their minutes back from last year and only 1 starter this year that played any type of role on last year’s team and he was a limited reserve in 2023. This is head coach Ron Hunter’s 6th year at Tulane and he has had only 1 winning season. Furman is a tough place to play as the Paladins have won 29 of their last 34 home games. Tulane has been a terrible road team with a 16-44 SU on the road since start of the 2019 season. This number is light in our opinion and we’ll take Furman to win and cover at home Friday night.

ASA play on Washington Commanders +4 at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Commanders here as they are coming off a loss, while the Eagles are coming off a big rivalry win in Dallas. Even though the Cowboys are down this season, that is still one of, if not the biggest game on Philly schedule. There is no shame in the Commanders loss to the red hot Steelers who have now won 4 straight games. Washington has the 6th best yards per play differential in the NFL at +0.5. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in YPPD at +0.9. Last year in the two meetings the Eagles won by 3 in OT and by 7-points in Washington. The combined Total Yards produced by the Eagles was 789 yards, the Commanders put up 837 yards. In terms of yards per play, the Eagles averaged 6.0YPP, the Commanders averaged 5.9YPP.  These two teams rate near even when it comes to overall DVOA statistics, so given the circumstances we will grab whatever points are available with the underdog. Washington is 5-1-2 ATS the last eight meetings with Philadelphia.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks will more than likely be short-handed again tonight with Damian Lillard in concussion protocol which opens the door for this fisty Pistons team. Milwaukee is 3-8 SU and actually looking up at the 5-7 Pistons in the Central Division standings and the reality is the Pistons have been the better team to this point. Detroit rates slightly low than the Bucks in Offensive Efficiency but rate ahead of them defensively. The Pistons overall Efficiency differential is -2.2 compared to the Bucks at -3.4. Detroit also has the better overall average point differential and holds a key advantage in this matchup with the 2nd best rebound rate (52.6%) going up against the Bucks 20th ranked rebound rate (49.3%). Going back to the start of last season the Bucks are 9-17 ATS against the Central Division with a negative points differential of minus -0.5ppg. Milwaukee hasn’t been great when playing without rest either at 7-9 ATS their last sixteen. Detroit is 7-1 ATS as a dog this season and undervalued by the Books. Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS as a chalk this season. We will grab the Dog and points in this one.

#697 ASA PLAY ON Wyoming +22.5 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Tech is 2-0 on the season playing 2 teams ranked outside the top 280 winning both games easily. In their most recent game they faced a Northwestern State team ranked outside the top 300 and won by “just” 21 points despite hitting over 51% of their shots and making 22 FT’s with their opponent making only 37% and just 13 FT’s. The Red Raiders largest lead in that game was 23 points and now they are laying that number (-22.5 to -23.5 range) vs a Wyoming team is far superior to Tech’s first 2 opponents. Tech has hit a ridiculous 63.3 eFG% in their first 2 games vs 2 poor defensive teams and that should change on Wednesday. Wyoming has been very good defensively in their first 2 games allowing an eFG% of just 39%. New Cowboy head coach Sundance Wicks was a UWGB last year and they were very good defensively ranking 111th in eFG% allowed along with ranking in the top 15 in 3 point FG% defense. Wicks is an outstanding coach as he took a Green Bay team that was 3-29 and led them to a winning record in his only season at the helm before coming back to lead his alma mater. He was named the Joe B. Hall National coach of the year for is efforts last season. Wyoming is a veteran team that starts 5 seniors and they have solid shooters on the outside (hitting 50% of their 3’s this year) and the size inside to hang around in this game. Too many points here and we’ll side with Wyoming.

#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio -10 over Eastern Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 have similar records (Ohio 6-3 & EMU 5-4) but the key stats aren’t even close. EMU is extremely fortunate to have a winning record right now. They could easily be sitting with 2 or 3 wins on the season rather than 5. The Eagles have a negative point differential in conference play and on the season this team has a YPP margin of -1.3, a YPR margin of -1.1, and a yards per pass attempt margin of -1.8. Those are the stats of a team that is well below .500. They’ve been fortunate in the turnover category ranking in the top 25 nationally in turnover margin. Ohio is 4-1 in MAC play with a point differential of +84 which is the best in conference play. They’ve allowed the least points in conference play (61) while scoring the 2nd most in MAC games (165). The Bobcats are 4-0 at home winning by an average of +18 PPG. When comparing the key stats we spoke about above for EMU, the Bobcats are +1.0 YPP, +1.8 YPR, and +0.4 yards per pass attempt. They are rolling right now as well, winning 4 of their last 5 game with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Miami OH who is playing as well as anyone in the MAC right now. 3 of Ohio’s 4 wins during that stretch have come by at least 20 points and their 1 close win they led CMU 24-0 in the 3rd quarter and took their foot off the gas and won 27-25. They learned from that mistake and have stayed aggressive with a lead winning their last 2 games by a combined score of 88-16. EMU has played only 2 road games in conference play this year vs Kent and Akron, the 2 worst teams in the MAC, who have a combined record of 2-16. They beat Kent, who is 0-9 on the season, but lost @ Akron. Now they face one of the top teams in the MAC and we expect Ohio to control this game from start to finish. Lay it.

#633 ASA PLAY ON Texas State +15.5 over TCU, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - TCU returns only 8% of their minutes from last season as they are adjusting to a completely new line up made up of mainly transfers. The Horned Frogs start 4 new transfers and their top 5 scorers after 2 games are all transfers. Their key newcomers have come from programs like UW Green Bay, Wyoming, Old Dominion, and UNC Wilmington so while all solid players, we’re not talking about high level additions from other Power 5 teams. The influx of new players can make it tough early in the season as they adjust to playing with different teammates, especially tough trying to cover big numbers. Both of TCU’s opponents have been ranked outside the top 220 and in their most recent game the struggled a bit with Florida Gulf Coast (ranked 222nd) in a game that was a one possession game midway through the 2nd half. The Frogs pulled away late and won by 17 which landed right on the number (-17). Now they face a Texas State team that is ranked nearly 100 spots higher than FGCU but the number is close to the same (-15.5). Texas State returns 60% of their minutes (4 of 5 starters played for this team last season) from a team that struggled early last year but played really well down the stretch winning 10 of their last 14 games almost topping James Madison (lost by 5) in the Sun Belt Championship game (JMU beat Wisconsin in the 1st round of the NCAA tourney). The Bobcats have carried that momentum into this season with 2 easy wins and this is a huge game for them vs an in-state big boy. We wouldn’t be surprised if TCU is peaking ahead to their huge game vs Michigan on Friday. Texas State keeps this fairly close. Take the points.

ASA play on Atlanta Hawks +15.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:10 PM ET - We successfully bet on the Celtics favored by 10-points in Atlanta a few weeks ago, a 123-93 Boston win. Today we flip and back the Hawks plus the points. Boston had an axe to grind in the first meeting as the Hawks won 2 games against them late last season. Now the C’s are coming off a big road win in Milwaukee, laying a huge number against a team that they recently beat by 30 points. Last season the four meetings between these two teams were all decided by 10-points or less with Atlanta winning two of them. The Hawks have been off since November 9th and should be fresh for tonight’s game. Despite a 4-7 SU record the Hawks have a -5.5-points per game differential and only two of their losses have come by more than this point spread. Boston had an average +/- at home last season of +14.4ppg, which has dipped to +8.8ppg this season. The Hawks had the worst spread record in the Division last season at 4-15 ATS BUT they had a positive point differential of +0.3ppg. The Celtics were 10-6-3 ATS in Division play with a positive differential of +11.3ppg. Boston has a below average FG% at 45% while the Hawks are slightly above average at 46.4%. We like Atlanta to hang within double-digits tonight.

#286 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams -2.5 over Miami Dolphins, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Rough spot for the Fins after nearly upsetting Buffalo on the road last week, they take to the air again in a cross country trip to LA. This is Miami’s 4th road game in their last 5 contests. They did get QB Tagovailoa back in the line up 2 games ago but they lost both of those contests and now might be without top WR Hill on Monday due to a wrist injury. Miami is just 2-6 with a -63 point differential which is the 6th worst in the NFL. And that’s despite playing the 24th most difficult strength of schedule to date. Defensively the Dolphins have solid overall numbers but they are trending down as of late allowing 58 points the last 2 weeks on 5.9 YPP in losses to Arizona & Buffalo. The Rams offense is back at full strength with WR’s Cupp and Nacua back in the line up together. With those 2 threats back on the field, LA has scored 56 points the last 2 weeks and veteran QB Stafford has thrown for almost 600 yards and 6 TD’s. The Rams sit at 4-4 and they’ve played the 3rd most difficult strength of schedule which is a big difference when comparing that to Miami. We’re getting a coaching edge here as well with McVay over McDaniel. The Rams are in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC while the Fins have pretty much played themselves out of it in the AFC. Miami has covered just once the last 8 times they’ve been tabbed an underdog and we think they add another ATS “L” to the ledger here. Lay the small number and take the Rams.

ASA play on Charlotte Hornets +5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - We are not sure the 76ers should be this big of a favorite against any team in the NBA right now. Philly is 1-7 SU on the season with a negative scoring differential of minus -8.8ppg. The Sixers rank 25th in Offensive Efficiency rating scoring just 1.092-points per possession. Defensively it’s worse as they allow 1.182PPP which ranks 26th. In comparison, the Hornets rank 18th in DEFF allowing 1.151PPP and 12th in OEFF at 1.120PPP. Charlotte has been very competitive this season with a negative point differential of minus -3.1ppg. The Hornets are coming off two straight home wins and should be much fresher than a Sixers team coming off a 3-game West coast road trip. The injury riddled 76ers have yet to win a home game so grab the points with Charlotte in what should be a competitive game down to the wire.

#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We’ll be the first to admit, we thought the change in Pittsburgh from QB Fields to Wilson was a mistake, but clearly not. The Steelers offense has put up 37 and 26 points with Wilson under center with 832 total yards at 6.6 Yards Per Play. It’s a small sample size, but those numbers would be the 2nd best in the league behind only Baltimore. The Steelers offense is averaging 138 rushing yards per game (8th) and should put up big numbers against a Commander's defense that ranks 29th in RYPG allowed at 143. With the running game established, Wilson and the Steelers passing attack can exploit a Washington D that allows the 24th highest completion percentage in the NFL and gives up 6.8 yards per attempt. The Commanders QB Daniels is special, and this offense has excelled this season, but the Steelers/Tomlin defense will be up for the task. Pittsburgh clearly has a scheme in place to slow Daniels as they have to play Lamar Jackson and the Ravens twice a year. Last season the Steelers D held the Ravens to 10 points twice. This will easily be the best defense the Commanders have faced this season with every opponent ranking lower than the Steelers in Yards Per Play and Total Defense. In the last 10 years the Steelers are one of the best in the NFL as an underdog with a 43-24-1 ATS record. They are also 8-4 ATS since 2020 when playing with a rest advantage. We like the Steelers to win this game outright.

#273 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -6.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The 49ers are a disappointing 4-4 SU on the season but have dealt with numerous injuries to key personnel. They are coming off a bye-week and are getting healthy for the final stretch of the regular season. There are even rumors RB McCaffrey may return for this game. Either way, we like the Niners to roll here. Despite a .500 record the 49ers are 5th in the current DVOA rankings, 7th in offense and 5th in defense. San Francisco averages 6.5 Yards Per Play (2nd) and gives up just 5.3YPP (12th). SF is a modest 15-13 ATS as a road chalk since 2020 but they’ve won those games by an average of +7.7ppg. On that note, the Bucs are 3-6 ATS their last nine as a home dog with a negative differential of minus -1.4ppg. As for Tampa Bay, they are in a horrible scheduling situation having just played in Kansas City in a big game on Monday Night Football. TB has not had a bye this season and are dealing with a depleted roster with their two best WR’s on the sideline. Tampa Bay is 30th in the NFL in Yards Per Game allowed and 26th in YPP given up at 6.0. They give up the 19th most rushing YPG and 30th most passing YPG. Offensively the Bucs will want to run the football, but the 49ers allow 105 rushing yards per game (6th) and just 4.3 yards per attempt (9th). Tampa Bay has already been beaten 3 times on this field this season and we expect the Niners to hand them #4.

#170 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +3 over Army, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Army is 8-0 on the season but they’ve played the 132nd strength of schedule out of 134 teams. The teams they’ve faced this season have a combined record of 10-35 SU vs FBS opponents and none of those teams currently have a .500 or better record. Last week Army struggled with an Air Force team that is 0-7 this year vs FBS opponents and the Cadets had just 250 total yards on 5.0 YPP. That was vs an AF defense that was giving up 410 YPG on 6.5 YPP entering that contest. Army played without their starting QB Daily in that game and there is an obvious huge drop off if he doesn’t play. He was seen in a walking boot this week and hasn’t practiced although head coach Jeff Monken said he is questionable. Even if he does get the nod, he won’t be 100% with a bad foot and that’s not ideal for a running QB. On defense, Army is facing a UNT attack that is averaging 41 PPG (6th in the nation) and ranks 3rd in the country in total offense (528 YPG). The Cadets haven’t seen an offense anywhere near this level as all 8 teams they’ve faced rank 65th or lower in total offense. UNT has played the much tougher schedule and they sit at 5-3 on the season. The Mean Green have lost 2 straight games and are coming off a bye in a must win spot. The extra week is perfect timing preparing for a unique Army offense. In those back to back losses, North Texas faced 2 of the top teams in the AAC (Tulane & Memphis) and lost 1 game in each but outgained both of those really solid opponents. As we mentioned Army is in a letdown spot off rival Air Force and the Cadets next game is vs Notre Dame. We like North Texas to win this game outright on Saturday at home giving Army their first loss of the season.

#140 ASA PLAY ON James Madison -14.5 over Georgia State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is simply one of the best situational spots of the season. JMU is at home off a bye week and they are facing a Georgia State team that is playing their 4th straight road game in 4 weeks. On top of that, they have to be demoralized losing 5 straight games and now most likely out of gas for this game. Speaking of the situation, since 2019 there have been 7 instances of a team playing their 4th straight road game vs a team coming off a bye and the rested team is a perfect 7-0 ATS. Georgia State’s offense will struggle here vs a James Madison defense that ranks in the top 15 nationally in YPP allowed (4.7) and points allowed (17 PPG). The Dukes defense has held half of their opponents (4) to less than 10 points. Offensively, JMU averages over 400 YPG and they’ve scored at least 30 points in 5 of their 8 games this year. They are capable of putting up huge numbers on offense as they have already this season scoring 70 points @ North Carolina and 63 points at home vs Ball State. They are facing a Georgia State defense that has to be tired and is allowing 31 PPG on the season. The Panther defense has allowed more than 30 points in 5 of their last 6 games and now facing a rested and prepared James Madison offense. GSU’s average margin of their 6 losses this year is 12.5 points and now with the terrible situation factored in. All of JMU’s wins (vs FBS) have come by at least 17 points. This smells like a potential blowout.

#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas +2.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Great situational spot for KU here. The Jayhawks are playing their best FB of the season and coming off a bye. Meanwhile they catch ISU off their first loss of the season and to be perfectly honest, the Cyclones haven’t played well over the last few weeks. They’ve been playing with fire and it caught up to them last week in a home loss vs a pretty average Texas Tech team. ISU’s offense was only able to generate 22 points (they lost 23-22) vs a Tech defense that had allowed the most points in the Big 12 entering last week. The previous Saturday, Iowa State needed a late surge at home to beat another pretty average team, UCF. The Cyclones scored a TD with 30 seconds remaining in that one to pick up the 38-35 wins. UCF ran for over 350 yards in that game and that is a big concern here as well. KU is a very good running team, with a mobile QB (17th nationally in rushing) and Iowa State’s defense simply hasn’t been good containing the run this year ranking 93rd in rush defense and 110th in YPC allowed. Kansas is playing really well right now and they very well coached with 2 full weeks to get ready for this game. KU nearly upset a very good KSU team on the road in their most recent game. The Jayhawks ran for 5.6 YPC in that 29-27 loss vs a very good Wildcat rush defense. The Cats scored a TD with less than 2:00 minutes remaining int the game to get that home win. All of KSU’s other home wins have been blowouts. A week prior to that tight loss, KU rolled a Houston team that is playing very well right now. They beat the Cougars 42-14 which is Houston’s only loss since late September. Houston’s wins as of late include Kansas State, Utah, and TCU. We like the value here as KU was +2.5 @ Iowa State last year and now getting the same number at home (game will be played @ Arrowhead Stadium in KC). ISU gets knocked off for the 2nd straight week. Take Kansas.

#120 ASA PLAY ON UCLA +6.5 over Iowa, Friday at 9 PM ET - This is a letdown spot for the Hawkeyes traveling to the west coast for the first time this season after rolling up a big win over archrival Wisconsin.  The Hawkeyes have been great at home but on the road they are just 1-2 in Big 10 play.  They are traveling on a short week to face a UCLA team that is trending upward right now.  The Bruins are off back to back wins, both on the road, beating Rutgers and Nebraska.  Last week’s 27-20 win over the Huskers was actually closer than it should have been.  UCLA outgained Nebraska by 2.0 YPP and had more overall yardage despite running 17 fewer offensive snaps.  Even prior to those back to back wins, this team was playing well losing a tight game vs Minnesota 21-17, a game UCLA led pretty much throughout and they played Penn State tough on the road before that losing 27-11.  They’ve outgained each of their last 3 opponents and the Bruins simply to be undervalued with a 5-0-1 ATS record their last 6 games and now getting nearly a full TD at home in this one.  Iowa switched QB’s last week going with back up Sullivan and he will get another start here.  He didn’t have to do much attempting only 10 passes the entire game as Iowa was able to get whatever they wanted on the ground vs the Badgers.  Now they are facing a UCLA defense that is very good vs the run ranking 12th nationally allowing 100 YPG rushing on just 3.3 YPC.  Iowa will have to have some success through the air here and we’re not sure they can get it done in that regard (they rank dead last in Big 10 play averaging only 112 YPG through the air).  Iowa’s offensive numbers drop off drastically on the road where they average just 19 PPG (35 PPG at home) and only 281 YPG (374 YPG at home).  Upset alert here as UCLA will give the Hawkeyes all they can handle on Friday Night.

ASA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors – 7:40 PM ET - We just played -6-points with the Celtics at home over the Warriors and lost but will come right back here with a play against them in Cleveland. It’s too early to say, but this Cavs unit might be the best team Cleveland has ever put on the court. Cleveland has the 2nd highest scoring differential in the NBA at +12.7PPG and are winning at home by +12.3PPG. Golden State has an average +/- of +15.9PPG overall for the season. The Warriors though have played a very soft schedule and only two of their wins have come against a team with a above .500 record, the Rockets at 4-3 and most recently the Celtics. Golden State’s other 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 15-29 SU record. Cleveland has faced a very tough schedule to date with wins over the Knicks, Lakers, Magic and Bucks twice. The line value is obvious here and the bet is Cleveland minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -7 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Houston, we have a problem! The Bucks look and play like a team in complete disarray. There is a power struggle going on in Milwaukee with Doc Rivers and the front office as he wants full control, and they aren’t going to let that happen. In the 2022-23 season the Bucks were 4th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.119-points per possession. Last season they slipped to 19th in DEFF allowing 1.184PPP. This season they rank 21st allowing 1.173PPP. At least they have their offensive to rely on. Not really, the Bucks are 22nd in OEFF at 1.009-points per possession. The Knicks are adjusting to a major roster shift with the addition of Karl Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges and have underachieved with a 3-4 start. NY ranks 4th in OEFF and 20th in DEFF but you know this defense will improve under coach Thibodeau. The Bucks are coming off a game on Thursday against Utah and the Knicks are rested. New York has only played two home games this season so you can bet the home crowd will be extra energized. The Knicks were 33-17 SU at home last season with an average +/- of +5.8PPG. The Bucks were 19-29 SU on the road last season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG.

#110 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -5.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bengals have a losing record currently at 4-5 despite playing the 2nd easiest strength of schedule in the NFL.  They haven’t beaten a team that is currently above .500 and their 4 wins have come vs teams that have a combined 8 wins (Carolina, NYG, Las Vegas, and Cleveland).  Cincy played a little better offensively last week putting up 41 points on a bad Raiders team, but only averaged 5.3 YPP so that was a bit misleading.  In their 3 games prior to that this offense wasn’t playing great to say the least.  In that 3 game stretch prior to LV (vs Eagles, Browns, and Giants), the Bengals averaged just 18 PPG on 269 YPG.  Now they have some key injuries on that side of the ball with WR Higgins still doubtful, RB Moss out, and TE All now out for the season.  We’re not sure they can keep up with this Ravens offense that has scored at least 40 points in 3 of their last 5 games.  Last week they hosted a Denver defense that led the NFL allowing just 4.4 YPP and Baltimore put up 7.3 YPP vs that stop unit and 41 points.  Baltimore also added WR Diontae Johnson to their arsenal this week in a trade with the Panthers.  The Birds are the only team in the NFL averaging over 7.0 YPP on the season and in their first meeting with Cincinnati on the road, they put up 41 points on 6.8 YPP.  The Bengals were playing at the top of their game offensively at that point of the season and still lost 41-38 at home.  Over their last 15 home wins, since 2022, the Ravens have won those games by an average of +16 PPG.  Cincy simply isn’t playing at that level on offense right now and on the road, short week, we just don’t see them staying within a TD here.  Lay it. 

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4 at San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Blazers will be one of the bottom teams in the NBA again this season but today they are in a great spot to get a ‘W’ over the Spurs. San Antonio is coming off a game last night in Houston and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. It’s also their 4th game in six days so fatigue becomes a factor. Portland meanwhile is rested having last played on November 4th in New Orleans. The Blazers won that game 118-100, shooting 55% overall and finishing the game with +8 rebounds. Portland looked good in the game before that, in a 6-point loss in Phoenix. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in EFG% with the Spurs ranking 22nd, the Blazers are 29th. These teams are near identical in Defensive Efficiency on the season but in their last 3 games the Blazers have been significantly better. San Antonio is 3-11 SU their last fourteen games when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of minus -11.4PPG. Portland has the best cover rate in the NBA since the start of last season at 71.4% when playing with 2-3 days rest. Easy call here to grab the points with the Blazers.

ASA top play on Phoenix Suns -5 vs. Miami Heat – 9 PM ET - We love the spot for the Suns at home against a Heat team who continues to underachieve. Miami is 3-3 SU this season, but their wins have come against the Wizards, Pistons and Hornets. They have lost to the three quality teams they’ve faced, the Kings, Knicks and Magic…all at home. Now they go on the road to face a Suns team that is a legitimate contender in the Western Conference. The Suns have faced a tough schedule to start the season and currently sit 6-1 SU. Despite facing good competition, the Suns have an average +/- of +3.7PPG overall and are +6PPG at home. Phoenix is 9th in Offensive Efficiency, 10th in Defensive Efficiency. In comparison, the Heat rank 14th in DEFF and 22nd in OEFF, again against a weak schedule. Miami is shooting just 43.3% on the season (25th) and will have a tough time making shots against this Suns team that is 4th in the league in FG% defense. Phoenix will also have an advantage offensively with the 5th best 3PT% going against the Heat’s 11th ranked 3PT% defense. Phoenix won both meetings a year ago and have gotten better this season while the Heat have gotten worse. Lay it with the Suns.