ASA WNBA top play on 10* Phoenix Mercury -10.5 vs. LA Sparks, 10 PM ET - The Sparks have several injury concerns and aren’t deep to begin with, which has helped contribute to their current 6-game losing streak. Coincidentally, all 6 of those games were on the road as they are again tonight in Phoenix. L.A. is 1-9 SU away this season, 6-4 ATS in those games but most recently they have lost 6 of their last eight road games by double digits. One of those L’s came in Phoenix *68-87) against this Mercury team that did not have Brittney Griner in the lineup. The Mercury are a much better team with Griner and 4-2 SU in the games she’s played in this season. They have impressive wins in that stretch against Minnesota, Seattle and New York along with a close loss to Las Vegas. Those previously mentioned teams are some of the best in the league. The Mercury are also coming off a dreadful loss in Minnesota 60-73 after shooting just 31% overall and 21% from Deep. That poor shooting performance was against the best defensive team in the W and now they step down to face one of the worst in the Sparks. L.A. is 10th in defensive Net rating on the season and on this current road trip they are allowing 89PPG which is the 2nd highest PPG averaging in the league over that 6-game span. Phoenix has faced the toughest schedule in the league this season which has impacted their -3.0PPG average point differential. The Sparks have the 2nd worst average point differential in the league at -7.1PPG but have faced an average schedule. We like the Mercury here minus the points.

ASA WNBA top play on Seattle Storm -8.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 10 PM ET - We are slowly finding out the Western Conference is the stronger of the two Conferences with Minnesota, Las Vegas, Seattle and Phoenix all capable of winning the title this season. The East has New York and Connecticut, but they all fall significantly after that. The Commissioner Cup was a great example as the Lynx went to New York and beat the Liberty 94-89. Seattle got off to a slow start to the season but are starting to figure their new roster out. On the season they have a +5.0 Net Rating, in their last 10 games they are +6.8. They have faced the 2nd toughest schedule to date yet have an average margin of victory of +3.81PPG. The Storm relies on the 3rd best defense in the W that allows .966-points per possession. Indiana has faced a similar strength of schedule but has a negative point differential of -7.0PPG and ranks last in DEFF allowing 1.119PPP. In nine games against comparable opponents to the Storm, the Fever have lost by double-digits seven times. One of those blowout losses for Indiana came against this Storm team on May 30th, a 103-88 beatdown. Lay the points with Seattle.

#922 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - The Astros have won 6 straight games and have been on a long-term surge.  Houston has won 27 of 43 since their rough start to the season.  Houston has been rolling and they are enjoying being at home where they have won 8 of 10 games.  Look for them to continue to take advantage of hosting a Rockies team that year in and year out is one of the worst road teams in the league in recent seasons.  Colorado is 11-28 on the road this season and enters this game having lost 17 of 23 overall.  The Astros have 39 wins this season and 34 of them have been by at least a 2-run margin so we feel especially comfortable laying the run line here.  Houston won the first 3 games this season between these teams and those wins were by a combined score of 25 to 8.  The Rockies 52 losses this season have included 41 by at least a 2-run margin.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the majors.  The Colorado starter, Ryan Feltner, is in poor current form.  Feltner has allowed 18 earned runs in 21.1 innings spanning his 4 starts in June.  The Astros Spencer Arrighetti does not present a strong or even mediocre ERA based on his season numbers.  However when you look at his recent numbers, they have been skewed by one really bad start.  In his other 4 starts since late May, he has allowed only 5 earned runs in 19 innings.  He does not work deep into games but the Astros bullpen work is part of the reason they have vastly improved as the season has gone on.  Overall, in terms of team ERA the last 30 days the Astros have one of the best numbers in the majors while Colorado's team ERA is dead last.  The Rockies on the road have struggled again all season including losses in 7 of last road 10 games and they were outscored a combined 48 to 18 in the 7 losses.  Great spot to grab the value with a surging team at home and hosting a road-adverse foe.  This is especially true with the bet available at plus money by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge.  The Astros have won 5 straight games and have been on a long-term surge.  Houston has won 26 of 42 since their rough start to the season.  Now they are at home where they have won 7 of 9 games and they are hosting a Rockies team that year in and year out is one of the worst road teams in the league in recent seasons.  Colorado is 11-27 on the road this season and enters this game having lost 16 of 22 overall.  The Astros have 38 wins this season and 33 of them have been by at least a 2-run margin so we feel especially comfortable laying the run line here.  Houston won the first two games this season between these teams and those wins were by a combined score of 20 to 6.  The Rockies 51 losses this season have included 40 by at least a 2-run margin.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the majors.  The Colorado starter, Austin Gomber, is in dreadful current form.  Gomber has allowed 19 earned runs in 17.2 innings spanning his last 4 starts and 3 of the 4 outings were on the road so these numbers were not inflated because of Coors Field.  In fact, on the season, Gomber has been worse on the road than at home as he is 1-3 with a 5.05 ERA away from home.  The Astros Hunter Brown has been in top form of late while Gomber is winless with a 9.68 ERA in his 4 June outings!  Brown, on the other hand, has a 2.45 ERA in his last 9 starts spanning May and June!  Brown has dominated his last two starts with 0 walks and 15 strikeouts and only 1 earned run in 13 innings!  Brown and the Astros enter this game with confidence riding high and they are home.  The Rockies back on the road where they have struggled again all season including losses in 6 of last 9 games and they were outscored a combined 43 to 16 in the 6 losses.  Big edges all around for the home team here.  There is a reason Houston is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the strong value with a surging team at home and hosting a road-adverse foe.  This is especially true with the bet available at a modest, yet reasonable, price by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Lynx +6 at NY Liberty, 8 PM ET - The Liberty are clearly a contender this year and a solid team, but they also have some favorable statistics as a result of playing a weak schedule. In fact, the Liberty schedule is the second weakest in the entire W. They play in the Eastern Conference which isn’t as good as the West from top to bottom. They have three losses this season, two of which came against Western Conference opponents the Mercury and this same Lynx team. Minnesota is 13-3 SU on the season and have the best Net Rating in the WNBA, slightly ahead of this Liberty team, but again, the Lynx have faced the much tougher schedule. Minnesota has the #1 defense in the league and are 3rd in Offensive Net Rating. The Lynx have the best average point differential in the league at +10.6PPG, the Liberty are second at +9.0PPG. These two teams met in late May in Minnesota and the Lynx dominated the Liberty with an 84-67 win. We like Minnesota here and wouldn’t be shocked if they won outright.

#924 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over Texas Rangers, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Brewers to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Milwaukee is expected to send Freddy Peralta to the mound while Texas counters with Michael Lorenzen. The Brewers right-hander Peralta is off a great start in LA against the Angels but he had a rare poor outing in his most recent home start.  Prior to that Peralta was in fine form at home and he wants to make up for that rare unusually rough home start with a gem here versus the defending world champs.  Texas has definitely taken a step back this season and the Rangers are in for a tough one versus Peralta here.  Prior to the bad home start, Peralta had allowed only 12 earned runs in his 5 home starts this season and struck out 40 in 27.2 innings here at home in Milwaukee.  The Brewers bats will face a downward-trending Lorenzen here. The Rangers right-hander has managed to limit the damage in recent starts but the signs are there that he is regressing.  Lorenzen has had nearly as many homers allowed (5) as strikeouts registered (6) in his last 3 starts.  That is not a good sign and we look for the Brewers lineup to take advantage. Milwaukee has scored about 5 runs per game over their last 8 games and wins in 10 of last 12 home games with solid offensive production at home during this dozen-game stretch will add to the confidence level at the plate in this one.  All the edges point to the home team and another multi-run margin win here (10 of last 12 Brewers home wins by 2+ runs!). We are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +120 money range with the Brewers. Lay it!

ASA play on Phoenix Mercury +5.5 at Minnesota Lynx, 8 PM ET - In handicapping the Mercury, you can’t look at their full season numbers as Britney Griner missed the early part of the season and they really struggled without her. In their last five games with Griner they are 5th in the league in Net Rating and have won 4 of five games, including a win at home against this same Lynx team. Phoenix is on a 5-0 ATS spread run and are coming off 3 full days of rest so they should be fresh for this rematch. Minnesota has also won 5 straight games and are 3-2 ATS in this stretch, but 3 of those wins came against Atlanta, Dallas and Los Angeles who are really playing poorly right now. Grab the points with the dog.

#225493 ASA PLAY on Belgium -1 (-130) over Romania @ 3 ET - This is a very late release for us - about 2 hours before the game goes but we got the info we wanted and this one shapes up to be a blowout. Even though Romania won 3-0 in their opening match they lost the possession battle and they faced a Ukraine team that is not on par with this Belgium team. As for that Belgium team, being upset - the biggest upset of the first matches played - means they are fully focused on getting back on track here. Belgium will not hold back and this one should see the big favorites jumping to an early lead plus not taking their foot off the gas. Unfortunately for Romania, they are facing the wrong team at the wrong time. This one is all Belgium! Lay it!

ASA top play on Las Vegas Aces -6 vs. Connecticut Sun, 10 PM ET - With over 35-years of experience handicapping, sometimes your betting radar goes completely berserk when you look at the point spread of a game. That’s the case today when the Las Vegas Aces opened a -5.5-point favorite against the Connecticut Sun and were immediately bet up to the current number. The 13-1 Sun are getting this many points against the 7-6 Aces who are .500 at home this season. The Sun has some very favorable statistics as a result of playing one of the easiest schedules to date. They have played just 3 games against teams with winning records this season and one of those was a win against Phoenix who was without Brittney Griner. They split the other two games with a loss to the Liberty and a 1-point home win over Minnesota. The Aces have faced one of the league's tougher schedules this season with a shorthanded lineup until the other night. Las Vegas just got a key component back in the lineup with All-Star guard Chelsea Gray back from an injury. They have won 4 of their last five games with impressive wins over Minnesota and Phoenix in recent weeks. The Aces have one of the best home courts in the W with a 24-6 SU record in their last 30 and were 19-1 SU in the regular season a year ago with an average +/- of +17.6PPG. We like Las Vegas by double digits.

#225481 ASA PLAY ON Netherlands +1/2 goals -150 over France, Friday at 3 ET - France hurting with Mbappe breaking his nose in the prior game. He is a key to opening things up for the offense of France. Even if he plays, with a mask of course, we do not expect him to be 100% and this will absolutely impact the France attack. That said, Netherlands is a great value play here even at a price as the goal line at +1/2 goal means even a draw gets us the win here but we would not be surprised to see an outright upset. Netherlands scored late to eke out a win in their first game but really they were more dominant than the final score showed. That is leading to some value here with a highly talented Netherlands team. Take Netherlands on Friday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Mercury +5.5 vs. NY Liberty, 10 PM ET - This is a solid spot to fade the Liberty and back a Phoenix team that is better than their .500 record. New York is coming off a huge win over the Aces who beat them last season in the Finals and will have a tough time being focused here. If you look at the Mercury’s season statistics, they aren’t good. Phoenix has a negative Net Rating of -5.7, rank 7th in Offensive Net Rating and 11th in Defensive Net Rating. But when you look at their most recent 4 games with Griner back in the lineup they are significantly better with a +3.2 Net Rating. Griner’s impact is evident as she is scoring 22PPG, grabbing 7.8RPG and has 7 blocks on the season. With her in the lineup the Mercury are 3-1 SU with impressive wins over Seattle, Minnesota, Dallas and a close loss to Las Vegas. New York is playing their 5th road game in a six-game stretch making this a difficult scheduling situation. These two teams met on May 29th in New York and the Mercury played close in a 3-point loss without Griner. Don’t be shocked if Phoenix wins this game outright.

#921 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Super situational edges here because Jonathan Cannon is off a rare strong start.  He has been struggling in the minors this season and it was the same last season as well.  Prior to this strong start Cannon just had at Seattle he had been hit hard in each of his last 2 starts at the MLB level.  The Astros are expected to start Framber Valdez here and he is off a bad start but this followed 3 straight quality starts in which he allowed only 5 earned runs on 12 hits spanning 22 innings over these 3 starts.  The White Sox have the worst record in baseball this season and have won only 26% of their games.  The Astros started the season 7-19 but have since gone 26-20 which may not sound that great but it is much better than Chicago and also would equate to a 92-70 record over the course of a full season.  The point is that the Astros have been playing better and we have no hesitation in facing this 19-54 White Sox team!  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at a small price by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavericks humiliated the Celtics in Game 4 and we expect a bounce back here at home for Boston. The C’s were the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.4% overall and the 2nd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3%. In the first three games of this series, they shot 45% or better but in Game 4 they hit just 36% overall. Back at home we like Boston to find their range again considering they were the 5th best shooting team in the NBA at home at 49.4%. Dallas had struggled scoring in the first three games, failing to reach 100-points in all three. In Game 4 they exploded for 122 by scoring 30+ in three of the four quarters. We expect a regression in the Mavs shooting here after hitting 51% overall in Game 4 and 41% from Deep. The reserves for Dallas shot well above standards with a combined 11 of 18 from beyond the arc. Boston has an average +/- at home this season of +14.3PPG, best in the league and are 45-6 SU on their home floor. Congratulations to the Boston Celtics for their Championship tonight and we are betting they do it by margin!

#978 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET - The Dodgers won last night's game but only by a run but we are projecting a blowout here.  It was interesting to us that of over 100 pitches in his last start, only 7 were swinging strikes for Seth Lugo.  His strikeout numbers are down and his earned runs are up in recent starts.  In Lugo's last two for the Royals he has allowed 9 earned runs in 13 innings!  Lugo did allow 2 homers in most recent road start also.  The Dodgers counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto here and he has allowed only 19 earned runs in 71 innings ever since his 2nd start of the season!   Yamamoto has been fantastic and the Royals are 12-20 this season against teams with a winning record!  The Dodgers are 32-19 in night games this season.  Kansas City has lost 12 of 18 games and 11 of the last 15 losses have been by a multi-run margin.  LA, prior to yesterday, had delivered 31 multi-run wins out of their last 37 wins. We like the odds on a big win here for the home team given numbers like that.  There is a reason Los Angeles is so heavily favored on the money line even though the Dodgers barely snuck out the 1-run win last night and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at small plus money by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#967 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Boston Red Sox, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - The Yankees have the best record in baseball.  Even though the Red Sox are a .500 team they have padded their record against bad teams.  Against teams that currently have a winning record this season, Boston has gone an ugly 11-23 this season.  The Red Sox are 7-12 against left-handed starters and only 19-25 in night games this season.  The Yankees are 33-14 in night games and 41-16 against right-handed starters this season.  The Red Sox are expected to start right-hander Cooper Criswell and he has been charged with 11 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 games.  The Yankees are expected to start left-hander Carlos Rodon and he has been fantastic in 9 of his last 10 starts including 10 in a row!  In those 9 starts he has allowed only 12 earned runs on just 34 hits in 56 innings!  Yesterday was an 8-1 win for the Yankees and with consideration to all the factors above, we expect another big loss for Boston again here.  There is a reason New York is so heavily favored on the money line even though the Yankees are on the road here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun -6.5 at Dallas Wings, 1 PM ET - This is an early tipoff so be sure to get your action in as soon as possible. At first glance, this line may look high, but in reality, it’s not. We can make a great comparison with recent Wings games when they were at home +6.5 vs. Seattle and lost by 8-points and they were +9 at home against the Aces on June 5th and lost by 14. Connecticut is better than both of those teams in most key statistical categories. The Sun have the 3rd best average point differential per game in the league at +9.6PPG and rank 1st overall in Net Rating Differential at +12.7. Teams are having a tough time scoring on the Sun who have the best Defensive Net Rating in the league at 90.9 and they allow just 71.1PPG. In comparison, the Wings allow the 2nd most points per game on the season at 86PPG and rank 10th in DNR at 104. Connecticut is 2-2 ATS this season as a road favorite but they have covered their two most recent games against the Sky and Dream. Going back 10 games, the Sun are 6-3-1 ATS as a road chalk. Dallas is 0-3 ATS as a home dog this season with all three of those losses coming by more than today’s point spread. Lay it with Connecticut.

#958 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The A's have lost 5 straight games and have scored only 2.4 runs per game in those 5 defeats.  Now the Athletics visit Minnesota to take on a Twins team off a huge win yesterday in which they scored 17 runs!  Minnesota is surging with confidence right now at the plate as they also took advantage of a recent extra-innings opportunity to score 11 runs in that high-scoring victory.  The Twins have won 7 of 10 home games and have momentum on their side here.  Oakland is 11-24 on the road and 8-24 against teams with a winning record on the season.  The Twins have feasted on facing weaker teams as Minnesota is 24-11 when facing teams that do NOT have a winning record on the season.  31 of the A's 44 losses this season by at least 2 runs and this one will be as well.  Minnesota is starting Joe Ryan here and he has a 3.30 ERA this season.  Luis Medina expected to start for Oakland here and he had a 5.42 ERA last season and is just now getting back into the rotation for Oakland this season and got rocked in his most recent start which was just his 2nd outing this season.  With consideration to all the factors above, we expect another big loss for Oakland again here.  There is a reason Minnesota is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavs are obviously down 0-2 in the series and in dire need of a win. That doesn’t always mean the team down is going to win, but Dallas is in the Final for a reason and fueled by the home crowd will get a W here. Dallas has had two subpar shooting games in the series, and while some of that can be attributed to the Celtics great defense, we are betting a regression to the norm happens in Game 3. Dallas shot 47.9% on the season overall and 36.8% from beyond the Arc. In the first two games of the season, they are hitting just 44.5% and 24.5% from Deep. In the Playoffs the Mavs have shot 46.7% at home overall and 36.1% from the 3-point line. Boston is perfect on the road in the Playoffs but they also benefitted from playing the Pacers, Cavs and Heat who all had significant injuries. The Celtics had some incredible road results this season including a 33-14 SU away record, but the Mavs are no slouch at home with a 30-19 SU record. Dallas finds their shooting stroke and win Game 3.

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun -7 vs. Chicago Sky, 8 PM ET - Despite what Angel Reese or any other WNBA player might say, fans aren’t coming to watch them, which makes home court much less important. Unless of course Caitlyn Clark is there, then the place is packed. We make that point for this reason. These two teams met on May 25th with the Sun favored by -5 on this court and are now laying more. The Sun won that game by just 4-points so why the move up in the number? The big reason the Sky kept that game close was because of an abnormal shooting night from beyond the Arc at 47%. They won’t duplicate that performance considering they are the 11th worst 3PT shooting team in the WNBA at 28.9%. Connecticut is 10-1 SU on the season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Connecticut is 4th on Offensive Net Rating, 1st in Defensive Net rating. Chicago is 1-4 SU at home this season with the win coming against a bad Sparks team. The Sun are 3-0 SU on the road and after a close win here last visit, we expect a more focused effort here. Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +6.5 vs. Las Vegas Aces, 10 PM ET - The Lynx have been a big surprise this season and off to a 8-3 SU start to the season after finishing 19-21 SU a year ago. Minnesota has two losses by 1-point each and also a 14-point loss to this same Aces team. Las Vegas dominated the WNBA a season ago with a 34-6 SU record in the regular season but are a disappointing 5-4 SU this season. The Aces are a wallet busting 3-6 ATS in their nine games. Minnesota is 9-2 ATS with several impressive wins/covers against Seattle, New York and Connecticut. The Lynx has the third-best Net differential rating in the WNBA at +12.4, compared to the Aces at +4.4. Minnesota is far superior defensively with the 2nd best DNR of 91.2, versus this Aces team that has a Defensive Net Rating of 99.3 which ranks 7th. If we look at each team’s most recent 5-games the Lynx have superior overall statistics. Minnesota has a Net Rating of +19.4 (best in league) in their last five games, compared to the Aces at +1.9. Minnesota has an average +/- in their last five games of +15.4PPG, the Aces have a +/- scoring differential of +1.2PPG in their L5. The Lynx are hitting 45.5% of their field goal attempts in their last five, the Aces are at 40.5%. We like Minnesota to get a small measure of revenge here and potentially win this game outright.

#958 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The White Sox are starting Drew Thorpe.  Not only is the young rookie hurler making his MLB debut, he is skipping AAA ball to make it.  Thorpe has only made 38 appearances in the minors in his career and, though he has had good numbers, his stats were accumulated at the AA and single A levels in the minors!  Jumping all the way up to face major league hitters, and on the road no less, is not an easy task for a young pitcher.  The Mariners will take advantage and we also look for a strong start from Seattle starter Bryan Woo in this one!  Woo has absolutely dominated this season with a 1.07 ERA and a .139 batting average against in his 6 starts!  Woo has struck out 24 and walked just 2 and he has a 0.57 ERA in his 3 home starts this season!  Also, Woo has not allowed a single earned run in his 3 night starts - 0.00 ERA in 16 innings!  The White Sox are 5-27 on the road this season and 8-33 against teams with a winning record!  Also, Seattle is 22-11 at home and Chicago is 12-41 against right-handed starters this season.  78% of White Sox losses (39 of 50) have been by 2 or more goals and we expect another big loss for Chicago again here.  There is a reason Seattle is heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +7 at Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - We are banking on the Mavericks to come out with a better shooting effort to start this critical Game 2. The Mavs couldn’t buy a basket in the 1st quarter and a half and fell behind big to the Celtics in Game 1, trailing by as many as 29 points. Dallas was much better in the 3rd and 4th quarters where they actually outscored the Celtics 24-23 and 23-21. The Mavs shot just 42% overall and 26% from Deep which are both significantly lower than their season averages of 47.9% overall and 36.9% from the 3-point line. Dallas was 24-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss or 64.9% cover rate. We talked about how good the Celtics were at home in our Game 1 prediction, but let’s not forget that the Mavs were 34-17 ATS as a road team this season with a +1.2PPG point differential. We expect Dallas to make adjustments for Porzingis and play at a much higher level in Game 2. Grab the points.

ASA play on Seattle Storm +2.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx 7 PM ET - The Lynx have beaten the Storm twice this season by 13 and 9-points respectively. Those were the first two games of the season, and the Storm were still trying to learn how to play together with a new starting lineup after a few key offseason acquisitions. To say the Storm have figured it out would be an understatement as they’ve won 6 straight games, including a W at Las Vegas last time out. Both teams are 7-3 SU on the season with the Lynx holding a slight advantage when it comes to overall Net Rating of +11.3 compared to the Storm at +7.9. Seattle has a huge edge on both the O and D-boards with an overall Rebound Percentage of 51.4% versus the Lynx at 48.3%. The Storm have double-payback in mind and get a road win in Minnesota Sunday.

ASA WNBA play on Chicago Sky pick’em to +1.5 vs. Atlanta Dream, 5 PM ET - The wrong team was originally favored in this game as the Dream opened as a -1.5 point favorite, but that has quickly been steamed to the current pick’em line. These two teams have similar statistics including an OEFF (offensive efficiency) for both teams around .994 and a DEFF (defensive efficiency) near 1.000PPP allowed. Chicago has a better overall point differential per game of +0.1 compared to the Dream at -2.8PPG. When it comes to Net Rating the Sky hold and advantage there too with a +0.1 rating versus Atlanta’s -4.0. The big advantage the Sky have in this game is on the O-boards as they rank 2nd in the WNBA in Offensive Rebound Percentage compared to the Dream who rank 11th. Those second chance opportunities will be a huge advantage for the home team Sky. Chicago has made some big improvements this season and the Dream are just 3-7 SU their last 10 on the road. Back the host in this one.

#913 ASA PLAY ON Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 4:10 PM ET - Finally! The White Sox 14 game losing streak came to an end yesterday but don't look for Chicago to suddenly start building a win streak! In fact, the White Sox are just 2-18 last 20 games! Also, they send Nick Nastrini to the mound and he is 0-5 with a 9.74 ERA this season! Boston sends Brayan Bello to the mound for this one and he is 6-2 with a 4.36 ERA on the season. Bello has a 1.25 WHIP and Nastrini has a 2.07 WHIP so these two starting pitchers have certainly had widely varying results so far this season! Bello is 4-1 on the road this season and though he has given up a few more earned runs of late, he has remained quite tough to hit and the White Sox - yesterday notwithstanding - are typically dreadful at the plate. That is another part of the reason that Chicago's last 24 losses have included 21 by a margin of 2 or more runs. Of course there is a reason Boston is heavily favored on the road on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one. The Red Sox have 32 wins this season and 25 of them have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. Boston is 15-9 in day games this season and the White Sox are 6-21 in day games this season. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at a fair price by laying the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

#965 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 9:38 PM ET - The Angels are off of a surprising sweep at home over the Padres. However, Los Angeles entered that series just 7-21 at home this season and we are certainly not sold on this Angels team. They have a very weak lineup and even including their 3-game win streak have scored only 35 runs in their last 13 games - an average of 2.7 runs per game. The Astros had won 3 of 4 games and scored about 6 runs per game prior to a 4-2 loss versus St Louis. Houston has underachieved this season but there is still quality with this team especially in comparison with an Angels team that no longer has Ohtani (now with Dodgers) and is currently without Trout due to injury. We like this revenge spot for Framber Valdez as he was cruising along with a 6-1 lead at home when things suddenly unraveled in a crazy top of the 5th in which the Angels got to him for 7 runs with 4 of those coming with 2 outs in the inning. In his other 4 starts since early May, Valdez has allowed a total of only 6 earned runs. He will be tough here in this revenge spot as, when he is dialed in and focused, he is a tough one on the mound. The Angels counter with Griffin Canning here. He gave up only 3 earned runs but was tagged for 9 hits in his most recent home start. Canning had a 6.13 ERA in his 3 home starts in April. The fact is, Canning has struggled at times in his home starts this season and we look for that again here. As for the bullpens, Astros relievers have a 3.60 ERA this season while the Angels bullpen is one of the worst in the majors with a 4.71 ERA. There is a reason Houston is heavily favored on the road here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at plus money with the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on INDIANA FEVER -2.5 vs Washington Mystics, 7:30 PM ET - This is the strongest play we’ve made this young season as scheduling, along with several other key factors favor the Fever in this match up. Combined these two teams have just 2 wins this season. The Fever tough have played toughest schedule to date in the WNBA, but now 3 days rest coming into tonight. The Mystic are in a very bad scheduling situation playing 3rd game in four nights and second of a B2B. Washington lost at home last night to the Sky 71-79 despite Chicago shooting just 38% overall and going 1 of 14 from beyond the arc. The Mystic turned the ball over 24 times which is not unusual for them as they average 19.7 per 100 possessions, 3rd worst in the league.  Indiana's not as bad as their record because of the schedule. The Fever have an Offensive Efficiency rating of .978 compared to the Mystics .922. In terms of DEFF the Fever allowing 1.143 points per possession, the Mystic allowing 1.052.  The Fever’s defensive numbers are terrible, but they’ve faced New York four times this season who is the most efficient offensive in the W, they played Las Vegas 2nd and Connecticut 4th. Indiana is the better offensive rebounding team, shoots a higher EFG% and turns the ball over less. Washington is 0-3 ATS their last three as a home dog, just two covers in their last seven as a home pooch. Surprisingly, the Fever were a road favorite once this season in LA and won/covered. They are 3-1 ATS their last four laying points on the road. We like the Fever to get their 3rd win of the season by margin.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - In Game 1 we like the home team Celtics minus the points. Boston has been the best team in the NBA the entire season and won their home games by an average of +14.4PPG. The Celts were 21-7 SU versus top 10 teams in the league this season, 31-14 SU against top 16 teams. In comparison, the Mavs were 19-20 SU vs. top 10 teams, 32-29 SU vs, top 16 teams. Granted, the Mavs just rolled through the Western Conference and beat the two best teams in the Conference that had 50+ wins each, but in Game 1 of the Final we expect the host to get it done by margin. Boston is 43-6 SU at home this season and have been favored by less than this spread in just 4 of those games. In three of the four they didn’t have Porzingis and also didn’t have Tatum in one. Dallas is a fantastic road team but is very reliant on two players offensively in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The Celtics have multiple scoring options with all 5 starters capable of scoring 30 on any given night. Boston had one of the three best defenses all season long, allowing 1.116-points per possession in the regular season. Dallas was 18th in the league in DEFF, but also got significantly better after the trade deadline. The advantage the Celtics have is they typically have five players on the floor that can defend multiple positions. Dallas does not and we expect the Celtics to exploit Kyrie defensively. In the NBA Finals, the favorites are on a 12-6 ATS run and home chalks of -4.5 or more points are 20-10 ATS the last 30. In Game 1 at home, we like Boston by double-digits.

#908 ASA PLAY ON St Louis Cardinals -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - The Rockies are 8-23 on the road this season and went 22-59 the season before that and went 27-54 the year before that and 26-54 the year before that. Yes Colorado is a disastrous 83-190 in road games since the start of the 2021 season! We love the value here in fading the road-adverse Rockies as the Cardinals appear set to notch a blowout home win in this one. Sonny Gray gets the call for St Louis here and he is 4-1 with a 0.93 ERA in his home starts this season. Opponents are hitting only .167 against him in home starts this season! The Rockies counter with Cal Quantrill and he is 2-4 with a 4.68 ERA in night game outings this season. Last season he was 4-7 with a 5.24 ERA overall for the season. The Rockies have lost 5 straight games overall and are 2-7 in last 9 road games. The Cardinals are on a 14-7 run including wins in 5 straight home games and 7 of last 8 as a host. The Rockies are 1-8 against Central Division teams this season. 30 of the Rockies 40 losses this season have been by a multi-run margin and our computer math model shows this one has most likely a Cards win by 3 runs with a margin of 4 and 2 the next most likely outcomes. Look for the Cardinals to roll big here. Great spot to grab the solid value with the home team at a very fair price offered by laying the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

#964 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Yankees have won 6 straight games and 23 of 29. Like the Phillies in the NL, the Yankees have been the red hot team in the AL. Of course this is why the Yankees are a heavily priced home favorite here. The value comes into play in looking at the run line and that is available at +110 in the market place and is a great value when you look at recent margin of victory results for the Yankees. 21 of the Yankees last 22 wins have been by at least 2 runs! As the money line (in 190 range) shows you, the Yankees are likely to make it 7 straight wins here. As the 21 of 22 stat shows you, the Yankees are also likely to have that victory come by a multi-run margin! These teams matched up in Minnesota in mid-May and Chris Paddack faced Carlos Rodon in one of the games in that series. The Yankees and Rodon won that game 5 to 1. Not only that, Paddack allowed 12 hits in 5 innings and Rodon allowed only 6 hits in 6 innings. We look for dominance again in the rematch. Paddack has a .287 batting average against this season and has been in that range each of the last 3 seasons. Rodon has a .222 batting average against this season and it is .233 in his career. He is 7-2 this season and has been particularly dominant at home with a 3-0 record and a 2.13 ERA! The Twins have lost 11 of 20 including losing 6 of last 10 on the road. The Yankees have won all 4 games against the Twins this season and with big edges in this one, a home blowout is our call. We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a comeback price in the +110 range with the Yankees. Great spot to grab the solid value with the hot team at plus money with the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA WNBA top play on Seattle Storm -7 vs. Phoenix Mercury, 10 PM ET - This is a case of two teams heading in opposite directions as the Storm are playing well having won 4 straight games, while the Mercury are 1-4 SU in their last five. Phoenix has some holes in their lineup without Griner and Allen and it’s shown in recent results. The Storm on the other hand have found a rhythm with free-agent additions in Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike starting to gel. Seattle is 6th in the WNBA in offensive efficiency, Phoenix is 7th. The big separator is defensive as the Storm rank 3rd in the league allowing just .97-points per possession compared to the Sun who allow 1.060PPP which is 11th out of twelve teams. Even after a 1-3 SU start, the Storm still have a +4.2PPG differential and +1.7RPG plus/minus. Phoenix on the other hand have a negative average differential of minus -6.8PPG and get out-rebounded by -1.2RPG. Seattle is 4-1 ATS as a favorite in their last five games. Phoenix is 0-4 ATS as a Dog of +8.5-points or less in their last four. The Storm are also in a much better scheduling situation here as they have been off since May 30th while the Mercury are playing their 5th game in an 8-day span. Lay the points.

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings +8 at Minnesota Lynx, 7 PM ET - This line immediately grabbed our attention as our model suggests this number is higher than it should be in the Lynx favor. A great comparison can be made with a recent Lynx game in which they faced a struggling Phoenix team and were favored at home by this same margin. Dallas is significantly better than the Mercury right now as the Wings have a Net Rating of +1.4 compared to the Mercury’s -9.5. Dallas has covered 5 of six games this season and has a Net point differential of +1.3PPG. The Wings have wins versus Chicago, Phoenix and the Sparks and have closes losses to the Sun by 2-poitns and the Dream by 5-points. Their biggest loss of the season was by nine points, so they’ve been highly competitive in every game this season. Minnesota is coming off a blowout win over Mercury and are 5-2 SU to start the season. The Lynx has the 2nd best point differential in the WNBA at +8.7PPG and rely on their defense which is the best in the league in Defensive Net Rating. Dallas is more than capable offensively with the 4th best Offensive Net Rating and will be competitive in this game from start to finish.

#926 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-150) over Chicago White Sox, SuNday at 2:10 PM ET - Though we fell short with our run line play on the Brewers Saturday, we fade the White Sox again Sunday as they are now 15-44 on the season and have lost 10 straight games!  Milwaukee has won 8 of 11 games and scored an average of 7 runs a game in the 8 victories.  We expect the Brewers to stay hot here versus Chicago similar to how they punishing the White Sox bullpen in Friday's 12-5 win!  Milwaukee is having a solid season and is 12 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 6-29 this season when facing a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are the much better team and the White Sox have scored an average of only 2.6 runs in an 19-game stretch (3-16 record).  In terms of bullpens here, Milwaukee relievers have a 25-8 record and 1.22 WHIP.  White Sox relievers have a 4-16 record and a 1.49 WHIP - last in the American League!  Of course the starting pitching edge is massive with Peralta rock solid while Nastrini has a winless record and a 9.92 ERA on the season.  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and even having to play a -150 price range with the Brewers.  Grab the much stronger team at -1.5 runs!  Lay it!

#201202 ASA PLAY ON Atalanta -1 -115 over Fiorentina, Sunday at Noon ET - This one in Serie A action and it is the season finale for the league. We like the value of the goal line here. Atalanta is a huge favorite on the money line but we lay a small price to have them at -1 goal. The moods of these two clubs entering the season finale are drastically different. Fiorentina off disappointment in other European competition while Atalanta finished with great success with the win over Bayer Leverkusen. That combined with a season finale on home pitch and also a goal differential of 40 to 13 in home matches means the hosts are a great play here considering the motivational factors. These teams are at two different ends of the spectrum right now in terms of emotions. Fiorentina likely "mailing it in" for this season finale. Take Atlanta on Sunday afternoon.

#976 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+140) over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-43 on the season and have lost 9 straight games!  Milwaukee has won 7 of 10 games and scored an average of 7.6 runs a game in the 7 victories.  We expect the Brewers to stay hot here versus Chicago after punishing their bullpen in yesterday's 12-5 win!  Milwaukee is having a solid season and is 11 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 6-28 this season when facing a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are the much better team and are starting Robert Gasser here.  The rookie has a solid 1.96 ERA this season in his 4 starts and has had fantastic command with only 1 walk in 23 innings!  The White Sox are starting Garrett Crochet here and, though he has solid numbers on the season, he has been struggling at times on the road including allowing 13 earned runs in 19 innings in his 4 away starts since mid-April!  He also is highly unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense!   The White Sox have scored an average of only 2.6 runs in an 18-game stretch (3-15 record).  In terms of bullpens here, Milwaukee relievers have a 24-8 record and 1.24 WHIP.  White Sox relievers have a 4-15 record and a 1.48 WHIP - last in American League!  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a solid plus money return in the +140 range with the Brewers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a nice comeback price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it!

#224201 ASA PLAY ON Borussia Dortmund +1 -125 over Real Madrid, Saturday at 3 ET - This one in Champions League action and it is the big one as it is the Champions League Final. We like the value of the goal line here. Real Madrid is a big favorite on the money line based on their Championship pedigree but this Borussia Dortmund team has been very impressive. We will grab the value of the +1 goal on the goal line here as we can get involved at a reasonable price. As strong as Real Madrid has been, only 12 of last 35 games have been wins by a multi-goal margin. This is why there is such value in looking at the goal line here. This Borussia Dortmund club has been so strong that they will be tough to beat let alone to defeat by a multi-goal margin! Borussia Dortmund has just 5 losses by more than a goal in their last 57 games. We feel they match up well and can frustrate Real Madrid with strong defensive play. Take Borussia Dortmund on Saturday afternoon.

#928 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+130) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - We fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-42 on the season and have lost 8 straight games!  Milwaukee has won 6 of 9 games and scored an average of 7 runs a game in the 6 victories.  We expect the Brewers to stay hot here versus Chicago.  Milwaukee is having a solid season and is 10 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 8-31 this season when facing a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are the much better team and are starting Tobias Myers here.  The rookie has a solid 1.80 ERA this season in his 3 evening games - 2 starts!  The White Sox are starting Erick Fedde here and, though he has decent numbers on the season, he has been struggling on the road including allowing 5 earned runs in each of his two away starts this month!  He also is highly unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense!  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a solid plus money return in the +130 range with the Brewers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a nice comeback price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - Every game in this series has been tightly contested with margins of 3, 1, 9 and 5-points. Dallas has been a great road team all season long and Super Stars Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic won’t be fazed by the big game environment. The Mavs off a loss were one of the best spread record teams in the league this season with a 23-13 ATS record, and they won those games outright by an average of +2.7PPG. In the playoffs, prior to tonight’s situation, they lost 4 games and, in each instance, came back to win the following game. In fact, the Mavs won all four of those games on the road! The Wolves haven’t shot it especially well in this series at 46.5%, and it took a 53% night in Game 4, compared to the Mavs 42% to gain a 5-point win. Karl Anthony Towns has been in a shooting slump this series but made 4 of 5 in Game 4. We don’t expect him to have another game like that, as the previous 3-games he was 3 of 22 from beyond the Arc. At the end of the day, we trust Luka/Kyrie much more than any combination of Wolves players and expect another tight game that goes down to the wire. Grab whatever points are available.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +4.5 at Chicago Sky, 8 PM ET - These two teams are nearly identical statistically this season with Chicago holding a slight advantage in Offensive Net Ratings and Defensive Net Rating. The Sparks are the much better shooting team at 44.09% overall and 37.31% from Deep. Chicago shoots it at 42.06% from the field and 32.56% from beyond the arc. Underdogs have done extremely well this season in the WNBA with a 23-13 ATS record and the Sparks have covered 8 of their last eleven on the road. Chicago is a young team and just 1-4 SU their last five home games. Chicago hasn’t been a Chalk yet this season so grab the value with the Sparks.

ASA WNBA top play on Minnesota Lynx +4.5 vs. Las Vegas Aces, 8 PM ET - The Lynx have been a big surprise this season and off to a 4-1 SU start to the season after finishing 19-21 SU a year ago. Las Vegas dominated the WNBA a season ago with a 34-6 SU record in the regular season and are 3-1 this season, but they have been less than impressive. The Aces are 1-3 ATS with their only cover coming against the Fever who were in a horrible scheduling situation. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS with several impressive wins/covers against Seattle, New York and Connecticut. The Lynx has the second-best Net differential rating in the WNBA at +11.6, compared to the Aces at +7.5. Minnesota is far superior defensively with the best DNR of 91.2, versus this Aces team that has a Defensive Net Rating of 102.4 which ranks 8th. The Lynx has a +10.2PPG differential this season and have won both home games this season. Las Vegas will be playing their first road game of the year and are overpriced in this one.

#919 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 7:40 PM ET - Wednesday we fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-41 on the season! Chicago has lost 7 straight games and 11 of 12 games! Toronto is off to a slow start this season but they are getting closer to .500 as they already have taken advantage of facing the White Sox here and winning B2B games by a combined count of 12 to 3 to begin this series. The White Sox are a horrible 10-34 this season when facing a right-handed starter. The Blue Jays are the much better team and have now won 6 of 10 games and are showing signs of turning things around. Speaking of turnarounds, Alek Manaoh expected to start for the Jays here and he is off of a tough start but was victimized by a couple big hits and a couple of the runs were unearned. Manaoh has held opponents to just 10 hits in 19 innings in his last 3 starts. The White Sox are starting Chris Flexen here and he has been charged with 14 earned runs in 13 innings in his last 3 starts. All were tough outings and we expect more of the same here and he is unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense also! Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a road blowout is our call. We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and laying hardly any juice with the Blue Jays. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota T’Wolves +2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - Minnesota had a fantastic road record this season at 31-16 SU with the second-best average margin of victory at +5.1PPG. The Wolves have been a much better team on the road than at home in the postseason with a 5-1 SU record and a +8.1PPG differential. Dallas is 4-2 SU at home in the playoffs and were 29-18 SU during the regular season with an average +/- of plus 3.6PPG. We are betting the Wolves don’t have a shooting performance like they did in the first two games of this series at 42% considering they shot 48.2% on the season which was 10th best in the NBA. The Wolves were the 3rd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3% and Dallas was 18th in the NBA in defending the Arc. The Mavs were also 20th in the NBA in overall team FG% defense so expect positive regression from Minnesota in Game 3. There is positive support for teams down 0-2 in the Conference Finals and we expect Minny to rebound here with a win.

ASA WNBA top play on 10* Atlanta Dream -3.5 vs Minnesota Lynx, 6 PM ET - This is a tough scheduling situation for the Lynx who are coming off a game last night against New York and had to travel to Atlanta for the second night of a back-to-back. This will also be their 3rd game in a four-day span. Two other WNBA teams have fallen into this scheduling scenario this season, and both have been blown out by double-digits. Atlanta is 2-1 SU this season with a road win against the Sparks, a close loss to Phoenix and a home win against Dallas. Minnesota is 3-1 SU with a pair of wins over Seattle, a road loss to Connecticut and a win last night versus the Liberty. Minnesota’s has the best defensive Net rating in the NBA but that number is somewhat misleading considering they played the Storm twice who are last in the league in offensive Net rating. Atlanta’s strength is their offense as they rank 5th in Net rating at 105.3 which is significantly higher than the Lynx at 95.9. Atlanta won 2 of three last year versus the Lynx and with the tough schedule situation we like the Dream to get another W here.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +1.5 vs Indiana Fever, 10 PM ET - Our model as the Sparks favored at home here so we will gladly take the points with the better team. Indiana is 0-5 SU on the season, the Sparks are 1-2 SU. Los Angeles was recently a 2-point favorite at home in their most recent game, which was a win over Washington, who we grade slightly better than the Fever. L.A.’s two losses have come against an improved Atlanta team and the Champs from a season ago on the road in Las Vegas. Indiana has faced a tough early season slate themselves and have lost two straight close games to Connecticut and Seattle. The Sparks will have the two best players on the floor in Derica Hamby who is averaging 22PPG, 13.7 RPG and 2.0SPG and has a pair of double-doubles this season. Kia Nurse is averaging 16.3PPG on 54.5% shooting overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. Her 3PT% is second best in the league among players with 6 or more 3PT attempts per game. L.A. has won 8 of the last ten meetings outright with the Fever and we like them to get a W at home tonight.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, Game 2, 8:30 PM ET - We like the Wolves to bounce back here after their Game 1 loss to the Mavs. The T’Wolves are 23-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 17-12 ATS with a double-digit average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Minnesota had the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.1PPG. The Wolves have lost back-to-back home games just 3 times this entire season so we’re betting it doesn’t happen here. In Game 1 the Wolves shot 43% overall and 37% from Deep. Those numbers are well below their season averages of 48.3% and 38.3%. Dallas on the other hand shot well at 49% overall but struggled from beyond the Arc at 24%. Minnesota was the best defensive team in the league this season and held opponents to 45.1% shooting which was 1st. in the NBA. The Mavs also enjoy a +8 rebound margin in Game 1 which is unlikely to happen tonight considering the Wolves had the 7th best rebound percentage in the league versus Dallas who was 23rd. Dallas gained home court advantage with their Game 1 win so a letdown here would not surprise us. Back the Timberwolves at home.

#911 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET - The White Sox got a win Tuesday but then resumed their losing ways yesterday (we had the Blue Jays for a win over Chicago). Now on Thursday we fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-35 on the season! Baltimore is off of being swept in their series at St Louis and being on the wrong end of series sweeps like that for the Orioles has certainly been rare in recent seasons. We expect the Orioles to bounce back here and get healthy at Chicago. Baltimore is having a solid season and are 11 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 6-23 this season when facing a team with a winning record. The Orioles are the much better team and have not lost more than 3 straight yet this season and that only happened twice the entire season last year! Baltimore is starting Garrett Rodriguez and he is 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA this season! The White Sox are starting Mike Clevinger here and he is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in his 3 starts this season. He has yet to complete 5 innings in any of his 3 starts and is unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense also! Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a road blowout is our call. We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a moderate (but fair) price in the -140 range with the Orioles. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs! Lay it!

#970 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET - The White Sox got the win yesterday but are still only 15-34 on the season and they are also 1-5 on the season when they enter a road game coming off a win in their prior game. Chicago is also an ugly 5-20 on the season in road games!  Toronto has not been great this season but they are a .500 team at home and a .500 team when facing a team with a losing record.  The Blue Jays are the better team and had won B2B games plus allowed only 3 runs per game the last 6 games previous to the loss yesterday to the White Sox. Toronto is a perfect 3-0 (including 2-0 this season) when coming off a shutout loss.  Toronto is starting Bassitt and he has been rounding into form with solid starts in 6 of his last 7 outings.  He allowed only 2 runs per start in those 6 games.  Bassitt is a much better pitcher than his ERA so far this season would indicate.  The White Sox are starting a struggling Nastrini here as he was 0-4 with a 5.83 ERA in his 6 minor league starts this season.  He also has struggled in his only two starts at the MLB level this year which is his rookie season.  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -120 range with the Blue Jays.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 over Indiana Pacers, Tuesday 8 PM ET - In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals we expect a blowout win by the home team Celtics. Boston is 41-6 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +14.6PPG. Going back another full season the Celtics stand 78-21 SU at home +11.5PPG. Boston opened their series up against the Heat in the first round with a 20-point win. In the first game of round 2 versus the Cavs the C’s won by 25. The Celtics big advantage in this match up in their defense. Indiana can’t simply outscore their opponent in this round as the Celtics were better than the Pacers in offensive efficiency this season. Defensively it’s not close as Boston had the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating compared to Indiana who ranked 24th. Indiana is a great story in the playoffs but let’s face it, they beat a Bucks team without Giannis and Lillard missed 2 games and wasn’t 100%. The Pacers then faced a Knicks team without 3 regular season starters and then Hart and Brunson both got hurt. Indiana was 23-26 SU on the road this season and have a short turnaround here after that brutally tough 7-game series with the Knicks. When playing with a rest advantage the Celtics are 26-3 SU this season, 16-12-1 ATS with those wins coming by +14.8PPG. Indiana was 7-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage this season. Boston in a Game 1 runaway win!

#920 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Angels rallied from a 6-1 deficit yesterday in a 9-7 win.  The Astros were 9-2 last 11 games prior to yesterday's loss.  Houston is 3-0 L3 games when they are coming off a loss.  The Angels are 0-3 L3 games when they have entered a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games.  Los Angeles is starting Griffin Canning here and he is 0-4 with a 6.64 ERA when pitching on the road this season.  The Astros are starting Cristan Javier here and he is 3-0 with an 0.75 ERA in his 4 starts at home this season.  Javier is 33-18 with a 3.55 ERA in his MLB career.  The Angels continued their big success (7-2 YTD) against left-handed starters with yesterday's upset win.  However, LA is 12-27 against right-handed starters this season.  The Astros have the bullpen edge here as well with an ERA ranking middle of MLB while the Angels bullpen ERA is among the worst in the major league.  Houston is hitting .274 in home games this season and that ranks at the top of the majors!  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -105 range with the Astros.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Connecticut Sun -4 at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - These two teams met in the opener with the Sun favored by -6.5 points at home over the Fever. Connecticut won that game 92-71 on 48% shooting overall, 43% from the 3-point line, were +2 in rebounds and had 10 less turnovers. It's a small sample size but the Fever have the worse Defensive Net rating in the league at 115.9 and the worst overall Net rating of minus -28.7. Caitlyn Clark is obviously a very special talent offensively, but she hasn't improved the Fever's defense which was 11th of out twelve teams a year ago. The Sun were the 2nd best defensive team in the WNBA a year ago and currently rank 3rd in DNR at 90.8. Connecticut has a positive Net rating of +17.8, are 2-0 SU this season with wins of +19 and +7. The Sun were 14-6 SU on the road last season, the Fever were 6-14 SU at home. The Sun have now beaten this Indiana team 9 straight times with the three most recent coming by 16, 17 and 19-points. Lay it with the road favorite.

#201318 ASA PLAY ON Bologna PK-123 over Juventus, Monday at 2:45 ET - This one in Italian Serie A. This is a value spot for the home team on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK-123 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Bologna but it is nice to have that added value with this line. This is a big 3-4 battle in the standings but Bologna's home dominance is why there is such value here. They are 12-4-2 at home this season and have allowed only 9 goals while scoring 30 in these 18 matches. Juventus has only 8 wins in 18 road games this season and their differential in goals on the road is only 8 via a 25-17 edge compared to that 30-9 edge for Bologna at home. Bologna has the rest edge too as Juventus had to play Atalanta in mid-week Coppa Italia action. Great value with the home team at a fair price here on the goal line. Take Bologna on Monday afternoon.

ASA WNBA play on #616 Washington Mystics +5.5 vs Seattle Storm, 3 PM ET - The Storm have underachieved this season with an 0-2 ATS record as they’ve been overpriced in both games this season. The Storm were favored by -7.5 points in the season opener and lost by 13 outright. In Game 2 of the season, they were favored by -1.5 at Minnesota and lost again by 9-points. Washington is the exact reverse. The Mystic are 0-2 SU but have covered both games of the season against two of the leagues better teams in New York and Connecticut. Washington played the Liberty extremely well in the season opener losing by just 5-points at home as a +11.5-point underdog. On Friday they traveled to Connecticut to face the Sun and lost by 7 as an 8-point pooch. Last season the Mystic beat this Storm team three times by +7, +6 and +7. The wrong team is favored here and we like the host to win this game outright.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - We’ve clearly watched every second of every game in the playoffs (and regular season for that matter of fact) and we were surprised at the lack of urgency displayed by the Thunder at home in Game 5. Shai Gilgeous Alexander can only do so much, and we are finding out the young supporting cast of OKC may not be up for the task. The Mavs Luka Doncic looked infinitely better in the last game after struggling through several games with nagging injuries. Doncic posted a triple-double with 31-points, 11-assists and 10-rebounds in the Mavericks G5 win. The Thunder won the previous meeting on this court but Doncic and Irving both played well below standards with a combined 27-points, 19-assists and 13-rebounds. Dallas has been active on the boards in this series (Gafford + Lively) with a 52% rebound percentage compared to the Thunders 47.3%. They also have the better overall EFG% of the two teams in this round of 52.6% versus 47.3%. OKC is not getting enough scoring out of role players Jalen Williams (43% shooting/17PPG in series) and Luguentz Dort (34.5% FG/10PPG). All of the previously mentioned stats on Willaims and Dort are below their season averages. With Luka looking more healthy and the Mavs at home where they are 28-18 SU this season with an average MOV of +3.7PPG, we like Dallas to win and move on.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx +1.5 vs Seattle Storm, 9:30 PM ET - These two teams met in Seattle in the season opener for each team and the Lynx came out on top 83-70 as a +7.5-point underdog. We like Minnesota to win again and don’t feel they should be the home dog here. The Lynx played an all-around good game in Seattle with the difference being their defense as they held the Storm to 37% shooting overall and 11% from beyond the arc. Minnesota shot 45% overall and made 7 of 24 3-pointers for 29%. The Storm were the last team in the WNBA in offensive Net rating and last in EFG% at 47.2%. Minnesota was better in terms of ONR last season than the Storm and slightly worse in defensive Net rating. The Lynx were respectable at home last season with a 9-11 SU record compared to the Storm who were 7-13 SU on the road. Seattle’s shooting woes in the first game of the season is a direct correlation to last year’s lack of shooting success as they were last in the league in team FG% at .410. Minnesota has beaten the Storm outright in 4 of the last five meetings overall and also cashed the money in 4 of five. The wrong team is favored here. Take the Lynx!

ASA top play on NY Knicks +6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - We expect this game to go down to the wire and will gladly take the points with the Knicks here. The Knicks (+6) were recently blown out on this court 89-121 in Game 4 so why isn’t the line adjusted slightly higher for this game. New York is the tougher team, they have played in more close games and have a Star in Jalen Brunson who can carry a team. The Pacers don’t have a player like Brunson as Haliburton is still coming into his own. Indiana is 17-16-1 ATS as a home favorite this season or 51.5%. New York is 14-14-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential in those games of minus -2.7PPG. Two key factors in efficiency ratings are rebounding and free throws and the Knicks have dominated those two categories. The Knicks are attempting 24 free throws per game in this series compared to just 16.8 by Indiana. New York is also plus nearly +7 more rebounds per game with nearly 4 of those per game coming offensively. I’m betting the moment is too big for the young Pacers and New York covers this spread.

#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - The Phillies are at home and off a home loss last night in a game they blew a late lead and lost in extra innings. It was a sloppy ending to an otherwise strong stretch of 3 straight wins over the Mets. Grabbing the Phillies off a loss has been a cash cow this season as the Phillies are 11-1 the last 12 times they have entered a game off a loss. Also, 16 of the last 20 Phillies wins have been by 2 or more runs! So Philadelphia is in a great bounce back spot and also likely to win big. The Nationals come into this game having lost 4 of 5 games and they have scored an average of only 1 run the 4 losses! Washington is hitting only .221 on the road this season which is 2nd to LAST in the NL as only the Marlins are hitting worse. The Phillies are hitting .264 in evening games which is 2nd only to the Dodgers in all of MLB this season! Wheeler gets the start for Philadelphia here and he is coming off a rare tougher start but that was on the road and means bounce back time here! Wheeler has a 1.44 ERA in home games this season and has held opponents to a .167 batting average in his 5 home starts while striking out 44 in 31 innings! The Nationals start Jake Irvin here and he has pitched better of late but he has had some tougher starts against stronger hitting teams. Above, we talked about the Phillies being second to only the Dodgers in team batting average in evening games this season. Well, LA got to Irvin for 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings the last time he faced them. Also, Irvin gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings when the Phillies faced him earlier this season. Irvin was 2-5 with a 5.43 ERA last year in evening action in his rookie season. This year he also has a higher ERA in night games (4.86 ERA) than day games. The Nationals are just 6-11 against teams with a winning record this season. The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball and are in an 11-1 situation. Also, 16 of 22 Nationals losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and laying the 1.5 runs! Lay it for a Top Play!

#201282 ASA PLAY ON Fiorentina PK-130 over Napoli, Friday at 2:45 ET - This one in Italian Serie A. This is a value spot for the home team on the goal-line in this one. With his line a PK-130 that means a draw would be a push. But, in this case, we are certainly expecting a win for Fiorentina but it is nice to have that added value with this line. Fiorentina has been the hotter team of late plus they have the home field edge here plus Napoli is going to be without star striker Viktor Osimhen. That hurts the attacking ability of the visitors in this one. Also, Fiorentina has been hot in Serie A action with a 3-1 last 4 games and only one loss last 5 games. Napoli has just one win last 10 games. Tremendous value with the goal line when you consider these numbers and the fact the fact the road team is without a key player they rely on when it comes to the attack! Take Fiorentina on Friday afternoon.

#956 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-155) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 10:10 PM ET - Dodgers are a 3 to 1 favorite on the money line but we get value by utilizing the run line. The Dodgers are off a loss but this followed having won 17 of 21 games and 20 of last 22 wins have been by 2+ runs. LA has an average margin of victory of 4 runs in their 29 wins this season! The Dodgers have averaged 5.3 runs per game this season and are one of the top hitting teams in the majors! The Reds are one of the worst hitting teams in the league and they are hitting only .218 on the season! Compare that to a Dodgers team that has a slugging percentage of .462 and batting average of .262 to lead the majors so far this season! HUGE difference and, speaking of huge variances, the Reds have a mediocre bullpen while that is a strength of the Dodgers. Also, LA is starting Tyler Glasnow and he is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA this season. The Reds are starting Brent Suter here but he is more of an opener and Nick Martinez is likely to get most of the work since Nick Lodolo was put on the DL. Martinez has a 4.86 ERA this season and has been quite hittable! Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call. We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -155 range with the Dodgers. Los Angeles is 5-0 the last 5 times they have entered a game off a loss. Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and 1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -7 vs Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Liberty and fade an over-valued Fever team with rookie sensation Caitlyn Clark. Clark and the Fever lost their opener against Connecticut (we were on the Suns in that game too) in blowout fashion 71-92. The Fever attempted only 50 field goals in the game compared to 66 for the Sun and they turned it over 25 times. New York is coming off a 5-point win at Washington but didn’t play well as they were favored by -11.5 and needed some 4th quarter magic from Laney-Hamilton to pull out the victory. Indiana had a negative point differential of minus 4PPG last season and were 6-14 SU at home, 13-27 SU overall. The Fever didn’t get off to a great start last season with a 1-3 record in May. Clark clearly is a HUGE addition, but she is a horrible defender and Indiana won’t improve on that end of the court with her in the lineup. Indiana was last in the league in overall defensive net rating and last in 3PT% D allowing opponents to make 37.53% of their attempts. In comparison, the Liberty allowed the fourth fewest PPG in the WNBA at 80.6PPG and had the 3rd best defensive Net rating. NY had the 2nd best Net rating in the WNBA at +10.3, the Fever had the 9th worst at -4.4. The Liberty were one of only 4 teams in the league a year ago that had a positive scoring differential. New York’s average Margin of Victory was 2nd in the league at +8.6PPG and they won 17 of 20 road games. NY beat this Indiana team 4 times last season, all by 8+ points, 3 by double-digits. We like the Liberty big in this one.

Oklahoma City Thunder -2 1st HALF vs Dallas Mavericks OR you can play **the game at OKC -4** for those of you who do not have access to 1st HALF lines. REGULAR SEASON 1ST HALF RESULTS... During the regular season the Thunder were 49-32 SU in the 1st half of games with an average +/- of +3.7PPG. At home the Thunder were 27-14 SU. Dallas during the regular season was 37-44 SU with an average +/- of +1.0PPG. On the road they were 18-21 SU. In the Playoffs the Thunder are 5-2 SU in the 1st half of games, the Mavs are 5-4 SU. WHEN IF COMES TO NET RATINGS… During the regular season the Thunder had the 3rd best Net rating differential in the 1st half of games at a positive +7.61. Dallas had the 13th best 1st half Net rating at +2.6. In the playoffs the Thunder have the 5th best overall Net differential rating, the Mavs are 9th. SERIES THUS FAR... The Thunder have been up at halftime in 3 of the four games in this series. **The Mavs look like they are wearing down and we like a big first half effort from OKC in front of their home crowd.**For those unable to play the 1st HALF line:

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 PM ET - We will side with the home team Thunder and Shai Gilgeous Alexander over the Mavs and the injured Luka Doncic. The Thunder won the opener of this series at home 117-95. Then the young Thunder found out what playoff basketball is all about and dropped Game 2 at home and Game 3 in Dallas. Then OKC found their confidence and won the critical Game 4 on the Mavs home court. This OKC team has one of the best home courts in the NBA and stands 36-9 SU in this venue. The +12.8PPG average point differential at home is the 2nd largest number in the league. OKC has better overall offensive and defensive Net ratings in the postseason and are 3-1 SU on their home court. SGA is healthy and Luka clearly is not. Irving was a no-show in the last game with 9-points. We like the Thunder to win this home game by 8+ points.

#924 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - Astros are a 5 to 2 favorite on the money line but we get value by utilizing the run line.  The Astros have won 5 of 6 games.  Before yesterday's 2-1 win in extra innings, 14 of the first 16 wins this season for Houston have been by 2 or more runs!  The Athletics have lost 8 of 10 games and Oakland, prior to yesterday's loss by a single run, had 14 of last 17 losses come by 2 or more runs.  Oakland starting Aaaron Brooks here and he is 9-13 with a 6.55 ERA in his MLB career.  Brooks was struggling in the minors so far this season but the A's giving him a shot here in his first MLB start since 2019 and first MLB appearance since 2022.    Houston starting Framber Valdez and he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts.  He also has walked only 3 batters last four starts and is rounding into form after missing a lot of time in April.  While Houston is on a 5-1 run, the A's are on a 2-8 run and we like the value here as Houston is not use to looking up to Oakland in the standings and they continue to bounce back from slow start while the A's slump continues.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -120 range with the Astros.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and 1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10:30 PM ET - This has been a wild series with the visitor winning all four games. Minnesota won the opening games of the series in Denver with the second of the two coming by 26-points. Denver then went to Minnesota and won by 27 and 8-points. If we focus on Game 4 there were a few isolated outliers that we don’t expect to happen in Game 5. The Nuggets shot 57% as a team overall, 45% from deep and Aaron Gordon put up a ridiculous shooting performance with 11/12 from the field including 2-2 on 3-pointers. The Nuggets bench did not contribute in the first two games of the series, then played well in Game 4 with Braun, Holiday and Jackson combining for 8 of 14 shooting. The Wolves didn’t play badly in G4, but Anthony Edwards clearly needs Edwards, Conley or Gobert to shoulder more of the scoring load. Minnesota has lost two straight games 5 times this season and did not lose 3 in a row once. They have covered 4 of the last five meetings with the Nuggets in Denver and the one game they didn’t cover they lost by 9-points as a +7.5-point dog. The first four games of this series (like all the series) have been physical dog fights, and the deeper Wolves have the advantage here in altitude. Minnesota’s bench had the 2nd best Net rating in the regular season of +3.1, Denver was 21st. I can’t call for an outright win by Minnesota but expect a very tight game and will grab whatever points are available.

ASA play on Connecticut Sun -6 vs. Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - The deserved hype surrounding rookie sensation Caitlyn Clark has given the WNBA a huge boost in popularity AND has forced the oddsmakers to inflate the Fever’s value. The last two times these teams met on this court the Sun were favored by 10 and 12-points respectively. Connecticut had a +3.72 average margin of victory last season and finished the regular season with a 27-13 SU record. The Sun started the season off with a 4-1 SU record a year ago and finished the season with a 13-7 SU record on their home court. Indiana had a negative point differential of minus 4PPG last season and were 7-13 SU on the road, 13-27 SU overall. The Fever didn’t get off to a great start last season with a 1-3 record in May. Clark clearly is a HUGE addition but she is a horrible defender and Indiana won’t improve on that end of the court with her in the lineup. Indiana was last in the league in overall defensive net rating and last in 3PT% D allowing opponents to make 37.53% of their attempts. In comparison, the Sun allowed just 78.97PPG best in the WNBA and held opponents to 32% 3-points shooting. Connecticut had the 3rd best Net rating in the WNBA at +4.4, the Fever had the 9th worst at -4.4. The Sun have beaten this Fever team 8 straight times and will be primed to hand the rookie her first pro loss.

#200165 ASA PLAY ON Manchester City -1.5 -110 over Tottenham, Tuesday at 3 ET - This one in English Premier League action. We like the value of the goal line here. Manchester City is a big favorite on the money line but by laying the 1.5 goals on the goal line here, we can get involved at a reasonable price. City has a chance to win the title again this season. They are in 2nd place but, by virtue of Arsenal finishing in a draw with Liverpool Monday, City can overtake Arsenal at the top with a win here.  We foresee not only a win here for Manchester City but also a win by at least a 2-goal margin. Having the goal line at a reasonable price with City is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! Totenham is off a win but had lost 4 straight prior to that and 3 of the 4 losses were by 2 or more goals.  City has won 7 straight games in Premier League contests and all 7 wins were by at least 2 goals and now have their sights set on winning it all as the door flung wide open with Arsenal's draw yesterday. Take Manchester City on Tuesday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -6.5 vs NY Knicks, Friday 7 PM ET - The Pacers have outplayed the Knicks for large stretches of both games in this series but some questionable calls by officials, and late game big shots by the Knicks have them down 0-2. Indiana is going to feed off their home crowd and get a big win in Game 3 as the Knicks short rotation starts to wear down. Coach Thibadeau has been criticized in the past for not using his bench players and that could be a key factor as this series goes on. Indiana plays at a frenetic pace and rotate 9 players which will eventually take a toll on the 7-man rotation that the Knicks employ. Case in point, in Game 2 the Pacers had 9 players log over 14 minutes each with no starter playing more than 37 minutes. The Knicks had 4 of five starters play over 32 minutes and Anunoby left the game early with an injury and Brunson sat for extended time also with an apparent injury. If Anunoby and Brunson are not 100% this may be a ‘throw away’ game for the Knicks. Indiana had the best bench Offensive Net Rating in the regular season, the Knicks bench ranked 24th. Indiana was 29-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best average point differential of +7.2PPG. New York was a very good road team this season at 25-19 SU and an average plus/minus of +3.0PPG. Surprisingly, the Pacers had a better SU record against the NBA’s top 16 teams at 25-22 compared to the Knicks record of 21-27. Indiana was the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss with a 25-12-2 ATS record and a 67.6% cover rate. Indiana showed some Moxy in the first round series against the Bucks and will be up for this challenge at home in this Game 3. Lay it!

#910 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - Dodgers are a 3 to 1 favorite on the money line but we get value by utilizing the run line.  The Dodgers have won 5 straight games and 12 of 14 games and 10 of those 12 wins were by 2+ runs.  LA has an average margin of victory of 4 runs in their 2 dozen wins this season!  The Dodgers have averaged 5.5 runs per game this season and are one of the top hitting teams in the majors!  The Marlins are one of the worst hitting teams in the league and they have been particularly bad under the lights.  In night games, Miami is scoring just 2.5 runs per game and their slugging percentage (yes, SLUGGING percentage) is only .275 in night games this season!  Compare that to a Dodgers team that has a slugging percentage of .487 and batting average of .292 under the lights this season!  HUGE difference and, speaking of huge variances, the Marlins have a weak bullpen while that is a strength of the Dodgers.  Also, LA is starting Yoshinobu Yamamoto and he is 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA this season.  The Marlins are starting Edward Cabrera and, though he gets a lot of strikeouts, he also gives up too many mistake pitches too.  That is why the Miami right-hander has been charged with 12 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 outings.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -145 range with the Dodgers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and 1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -11.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The well rested Celtics are going to make a statement in Game 1 as they catch a depleted Cavaliers team coming off a very tough 7-game series with Orlando. Boston was 2-1 against the Cavs in the regular season with the home team winning all three games. The C’s two wins at home were by 11 and 7-points. Boston is dominating at home with a 39-5 SU record and an average +/- of plus 15.2PPG. Cleveland on the other hand was an ‘average’ road team at 22-22 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.7PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Celtics are 25-3 SU, 15-12-1 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +14.4PPG. With a rest disadvantage the Cavs are 10-13-1 ATS, 13-11 SU this season. Boston was arguably the best team in the NBA the entire season ranking 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd defensively. The Cavs were great defensively all season long ranking 6th in DEFF, but offensively they averaged 1.152PPP which ranked 18th. Those numbers are very similar to each team’s playoff statistics as the Celtics have the 4th best offensive net rating and the 3rd defensive net rating. Cleveland is 4th in defensive net rating, but 15th (out of 16) in ONR. Cleveland expended a ton of energy in that first round series and won’t have enough in the tank to keep this Game 1 close. Bet Boston minus the double-digits.

#224210 ASA PLAY ON Paris Saint-Germain -1 -135 over Borussia Dortmund, Tuesday at 3 ET - This one in Champions League action. This is the 2nd Leg of this semifinals match-up. We like the value of the goal line here. PSG is a big favorite on the money line but by laying the 1 goal on the goal line here, we can get involved at a reasonable price. Paris Saint-Germain lost the first meeting 1-0 but had plenty of chances. They will cash in more of those at home! We feel certain of even more opportunities now that they are at home for this game. More opportunities and better finishes for the home club. They will also not want to risk this one being decided after regulation. So already trailing 1-0, they not only push for the 1 goal win but also a win by at least a 2-goal margin. Having the goal line at a reasonable price with PSG on their home field is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! Take Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 PM ET - This series is essentially over if the Nuggets don’t win Game 2 at home. The T’Wolves shot 48.5% on the season but they had an exceptionally great night from the field at 52% overall and 41% from Deep. I expect a regression in Game 2. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-9 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-17 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-36 SU +7.4PPG. The Nuggets were 13-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss but they did have an average winning margin of +6.0PPG. Denver lost 8 home games this season and in their next home game following a home loss they were 7-1 SU and won those games by an average of 16PPG. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota did some things well in the opener and were able to run three different Bigs at the Joker and he still scored 32-points, grabbed 8 rebounds and dished out 9 assists. Denver head coach Malone will make adjustments and Jamal Murray will step up as he so often does in big moments.

ASA top play on NY Knicks -5.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:30 PM ET - The Pacers pretty much punched a soft Milwaukee team in the mouth and the timid Bucks didn’t respond. That same approach isn’t going to work against the toughest team in the league, the NY Knicks. The home crowd will be a big advantage in this series opener and the Pacers are in for an eye-opener in the Garden. Much like Game 1 of the first series when the young Pacers were blown out by Milwaukee 94-109. Indiana is below average on the road this season with a 22-23 SU record and a negative average point differential of minus -1.4PPG. The Knicks were 29-15 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.6PPG. As a home chalk the Knicks were 18-15 ATS with an average +/- of +9.0PPG. Indiana had the better offensive efficiency rating this season ranking 2nd in the NBA, but the Knicks weren’t far behind ranking 7th. Defensively it’s not close though as NY is 9th in DEFF, the Pacers are 24th. Indiana is at their best when they dictate pace, but that won’t happen against this New York team that is the slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.2 possessions per game during the regular season.

#200122 ASA PLAY ON Crystal Palace PK -135 over Manchester United, Monday at 3 ET - This one in English Premier League action. We like the value of the goal line here. Crystal Palace, for a price, is available at a pick'em on the goal line which turns a draw into a push. We are happy to challenge Manchester United to beat CP in this one. Ever since Palace made the managerial change from Roy Hodgson they have played better. Crystal Palace won the most recent meeting with Manchester United plus they earned a draw when they most recently hosted Manchester United. Crystal Palace has only 3 losses in last 11 games overall! Manchester United has just 1 win in last 7 games. Having the goal line at a pick'em with Palace on their home pitch is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! Take Crystal Palace on Monday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 7 PM ET - This could be the best series of the entire playoffs, but we have to back the home team here and expect the Nuggets to serve notice in Game 1. During the regular season and as recently as April 10th the Nuggets were much larger favorites at home of -7.5-points and are now laying a shorter number here. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-8 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-16 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-35 SU +7.4PPG. Where we are going with this is that Denver is dominating as a host and even though the Wolves looked great in their opening series, this is a whole different level in the Mile High City. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota’s opening round series sweep over the Suns isn’t as impressive as you might think as the Suns aren’t that good to begin with. The Wolves were 28-15 SU away this season with an average +/- of +5.0PPG. The Nuggets can match the T’Wolves size (Jokic + Gordon) and have a great perimeter defender in Caldwell Pope who can make Anthony Edwards work for his points. With the home crowd support we like Denver to win game 1 and cover in the process.

ASA top play on Orlando Magic -3.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The home team is 5-0 SU in this series and all but one of those home wins have come by 10 or more points. We were on the Cavs last game and unbeknownst to us the Cavs Jarrett Allen was ruled out shortly before tipoff. Cleveland managed to win but it was by 1-point. We talked about how ‘average’ the Magic are on the road, but at home they are fantastic. They are 31-12 SU at home on the season with an average +/- of plus +8.9PPG which is the 4th best average in the NBA. Cleveland is only 1-game over .500 on the road this season with a negative point differential of minus -0.4PPG. The young Magic feed off their home crowd which has helped them beat this Cavaliers team in 3 of four meetings this season, with wins of 10, 38 and 23. Orlando is better in terms of offensive efficiency in this series and they have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the playoffs allowing just .973-points per possession. We like the Magic to force a game 7 with a solid home win Friday night.

ASA play on NY Knicks +3.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 9 PM ET - We will grab the dog here in New York who has been the better overall team in this series. One constant we know in backing New York is this, and everyone watching this series can attest to it, the Knicks play harder than Philly. They are undersized yet own the 4th best rebound percentage of all the teams in the playoffs while the 76ers rank 13th. The Sixers got a herculean effort out of Maxey in Game 5 when he scored 46 points and back-packed the team late with a 4-point play and a looonngg 3-pointer which sent the game to OT. Joel Embiid looks to be favoring that bad knee and his stamina just isn’t there. New York had the 2nd best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss at 21-11-1 ATS with a winning margin of +5.1PPG. This is going to be another barn-burner and will be decided by a bucket or less either way so grab the dog and the points.

#961 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 2:35 PM ET - Rangers off a shutout loss 1-0 yesterday.  Bounce back spot here for Texas and they have a solid pitching edge here too.  Mitchell Parker gets the start for the Nationals and he has been shaky in both his road starts including the most recent one.  That was against a weak hitting Marlins team in Miami and Parker had to navigate 8 baserunners in just 4 innings and was fortunate to allow only 1 run.  The Rangers are going with Nathan Eovaldi here and, though he has had some issues with walks this season, he has been strong overall at home and has a huge experience edge over Parker here.  Eovaldi is entering his 14th season and he has a 2.04 ERA at home and has piled up strikeouts there!  The Rangers are 10-1 this season when off a loss by a margin of 4 or less runs and that includes 8 in a row!  This spot should make 9 in a row as Washington is 1-5 this season when off a road win by a margin of 2 or less runs.  Remember last season only ONE team in the NL had fewer wins than the Nationals.  As for the Rangers, they are the defending World Series Champions (Eovaldi was 5-0 in P/O and was the winning pitcher in the World Series clincher)!  Given that, as well as all of the above and the great situational support, this is a superb spot.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the even money range with the Rangers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the 1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - This line smells! It’s fishy to begin with, then Dallas gets hammered with $ and it moves from -1 to the current number of -3. If it’s too good to be true, then it isn’t! Back the Mavericks here off that disappointing Game 4 loss at home as they are 20-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss with a positive plus/minus. As an away favorite the Mavs have been outstanding this season at 19-5 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +7.4PPG. The LA Clippers have been home underdogs just 6 times this season and are 2-4 ATS in those games with an average differential of minus -9.5PPG. Kyrie was amazing last game and carried the load as Luka had an off night. If both players are on their game tonight the Clippers will be in trouble in this critical Game 5. Bet contrarian here and take Dallas minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - This series is tied 2-2 with the home team winning each game by double-digits and we are betting that trend continues here. The Cavaliers won the first two games of the series at home by 14 and 10-points. Then the series shifted to Orlando where the Magic won by 38 and 23-points. Those two embarrassing defeats will have the Cavs in the proper frame of mind to get a home win here. The Magic had a fantastic regular season record at 47-35 SU, but the majority of those wins came at home where they were 29-12. On the road in the regular season, they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big-time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. Cleveland was very good off a loss this season with a 22-12 SU record and an average +/- of +2.5PPG. Orlando was 15-15 ATS as an away Dog this season with a net differential per game of minus -6.7PPG. Cleveland was one game below .500 as a home favorite ATS but they did win those games by an average of +6.4PPG.

#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Chicago White Sox, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - We had our eyes on this one for a few days and everything has come together nicely for a big play.  The White Sox have suddenly won 3 straight but faced a struggling Rays team that has now lost 6 of 7 and has not been playing good baseball.  Now this 6-22 Chicago team faces a red hot Minnesota club that just swept them in a 4-games series and followed it up by sweeping the Angels in a 3-game series!  Our concern with the Twins early this season was their bats but they are absolutely getting it going now and are loaded with confidence at the plate.  Also, they have scored at least 5 runs in all 7 victories in their 7 game winning streak and they just pounded the Angels by a combined 27-10 in the last two games of that 3-game sweep!  The Twins bats have come alive big-time!  Also, they hold a big pitching edge here.  Yes, Garrett Crochet has some impressive strikeout numbers this season but he has struggled with allowing too many hits, including big hits, in his last 3 starts.  It has been like Jekyll and Hyde when you look at Crochet's first 3 starts compared to his next 3 starts this season.  He also just faced the Twins and struggled as part of a stretch in which the young hurler has allowed at least 5 earned runs in all 3 starts even though he has not gotten past the 5th inning in any of the outings!  He will be no match for Joe Ryan here.  Like Crochet, Ryan is piling up strikeouts too.  However, unlike Crochet, Ryan is a veteran pitcher and he has been in consistently strong form all season long.  He recently pitched very well against the White Sox and he also has been in top form in his two road starts this season with just 1 earned run allowed in each.  11 of the Twins 14 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs.  16 of the last 19 losses that Chicago has suffered have been of the multi-run variety.  We are going to take advantage of the value on the run line here in a game our computer math model shows strong odds of turning into a road rout.  Lay the 1.5 with Minnesota

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - The Bucks are in a very tough situation here without Giannis and now Dame Lillard who are their two leading scorers. Khris Middleton put this team on his back in Game 3, scored 42 and it still wasn’t enough as Milwaukee lost in OT. You could see Middleton was exhausted in that game and now he’ll be the focal point of the Pacers defense so we’re not sure where the Bucks scoring will come from. Indiana had 6 players score in double digits and also got 6-points from Sheppard and 7 from McConnell off the bench. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 14-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 6-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. Lay it here with the Pacers.

#975 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-150) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Astros won 12-4 yesterday and the posted total on this game is 16 because of where it is being played.  This one at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú in Mexico City.  Yesterday's game totaled 16 runs and this 2-game series is playing out in similar fashion to last year's 2-game series between the Padres and Giants in the thin air of Mexico City and with this stadium having modest dimensions. The thing is, just like yesterday, it is the Astros bats that will make the most noise.  The Rockies have just 2 high-scoring wins in their current 3-10 run over the last 13 games.  How did those other 11 games go?  Just 1.8 runs scored per game!  This is despite many of those games being played at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  The fact is that Colorado is just not hitting!  As for the Astros, they have had a surprisingly tough start to this season and also have struggled at the plate but yesterday's game is a sign of things to come!  Houston won 12 to 4 yesterday and had 6 extra-base hits including 3 homers while the Rockies had just 1 extra base hit - a 2-run homer by McMahon in the first inning.  The Astros scored the next 12 runs in that game after that McMahon bomb.  In the pitching match-up today Valdez has pitched less so far this season but his ERA is half of Gomber's ERA plus he has allowed no homers while Gomber has already allowed 4 long balls!  Also, Valdez dominated in his 2nd start after struggling some in his first start.  Gomber had an ERA of at least 5.50 each of the last two seasons while Valdez entered this season 40-23 the last 3 seasons and with an ERA right around the 3.00 mark!  Another road blowout expected here per our computer math model.  Lay it as, just like yesterday, the Astros roll big again! 

ASA top play on LA Clippers +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 PM ET - We are backing the Clippers today and will grab the generous points against the Mavericks. I’ll be honest I prefer this bet if Kawhi Leonard does NOT play for the Clippers as he’s clearly not himself at this point in time. Without Leonard in Game 1 the Clippers offense and defense was much better than it’s been with him on the floor. Specifically, on offense where the ball was moving much better and didn’t stop with him in isolation sets. Either way, we expect a very tight Game 4 in Dallas. The Mavs are 26-16 SU at home but have an ‘average’ point differential of +3.8PPG which is 14th in the NBA. The Clippers have an identical road record of 26-16 SU with the 5th best average Margin of Victory at +3.2PPG. The Clippers were 19-13 SU this season when coming off a loss with a +2.3PPG point differential. These two teams have slowed down dramatically in terms of field goal attempts and pace of play which makes the points and this dog that much more attractive.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -9 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - We are obviously laying a premium price here with the Celtics, but our numbers suggest a double digit win by the visitor. Miami won Game 2, but it took a historically great 3-point shooting night to notch that W. The Heat set franchise playoff records with the number of 3’s made (23) and 3PT% at 53%. We are expecting a sharp regression in Game 3 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the NBA allowing just 35.4%. Miami is 12th in the league in 3PT% at 37.2%. Boston also had two starters play one of their worst statistical games of the season with Jrue Holiday and Porzingis struggling. The Celtics are 14-4 SU coming off a loss this season, which doesn’t translate when they are favored by 9.5 points, but their average MOV in those games was +12.3PPG, which does. Miami was slightly better than average at home this season with a 23-19 SU record, but they had a low +/- of +2.4PPG. Boston was the best road team in the NBA this season at 27-14 SU with a +7.5PPG average point differential. The Celtics won on this court twice this season already and one of those wins came by 33-points. Lay it with a motivated Celtics team.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30 PM ET - If we examine the big picture for the Bucks, it’s not as rosy as one might think. They are already paying two previous coaches a ton of money and are now stuck with Doc Rivers who is vastly overrated. The roster when healthy is a good one, but without Giannis (30PPG, 11.5RPG, 6.5APG, 1.1BPG) they have too many deficiencies on both ends of the court. There is a good chance Khris Middleton doesn’t play tonight, or if he does, he will not be close to 100%. The young Pacers were clearly nervous for Game 1 as it was a first-time playoff experience for many on the roster and it showed in a 109-94 loss. Then in Game 2 they settled in and dominated the Bucks in the second half for a 125-108 victory. Back at home we expect the home crowd to be electric and the young Pacers will feed off that energy. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 13-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 5-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. The Bucks have no answer for Siakam who torched Milwaukee for 36 and 37 points in the first two games. Easy call here with Indiana in a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans looked good in the opener of this series and the Thunder looked like a young team lacking playoff experience. New Orleans covered rather easily and could have stolen Game 1 had they hit a few open 3’s they missed late in the game. The Pelicans attempted 96 field goals in the game and dominated the glass with 52 rebounds versus 44 for OKC. The Thunder shot 44% overall and 31% from deep but had two quarters with 20 or less points. I originally liked the Thunder in Game 1 with the Pelicans coming off two huge emotional games then having to travel. But the Pelicans proved their 28-15 SU road record this season isn’t a fluke and with the G1 cover they are on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a road underdog. New Orleans also has a strong history when coming off a loss at 21-12-1 ATS with an average +/- in those games of +6.3PPG. OKC clearly has some strong home court statistical support but given the fact that the Pelicans shot poorly in the opener and still nearly won outright has us on New Orleans here. Four of the last five in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Grab the digits.

#962 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - Sixto Sanchez is slated to get the start here for the Marlins but he is really just an opener.  That being said, we are not concerned with the starting pitcher here as it is likely that Kyle Tyler could be in line to get significant work behind Sixto in this one. Marlins already have bullpen injury issues and that is why Tyler is being called up even though he struggled in his most recent outing at the AAA level.  Sanchez just now getting back from shoulder injuries in recent years.  Tyler hardly has any big league experience.  The Braves are expected to start Reynaldo Lopez here.  He has been fantastic this season with just 1 earned run allowed on 11 hits while striking out 18 in 18 innings!  There is also a great disparity between these two lineups!  Marlins have a .321 slugging percentage this season while the Braves have a .471 slugging percentage this season!  Atlanta is 16-6 this season and 12 of the 16 wins have been by at least 2 runs!  Marlins are 6-19 this season and 16 of their 19 losses by 2+ runs!  Miami is just 2-10 in evening games this season.  Atlanta has feasted on sub-par competition this season going 11-2 against teams with a sub-.500 record!  Atlanta enters this game on an 8-1 run.  Miami has scored just 1.7 runs per game in their last 6 losses.  Atlanta has scored 6 runs per game in last 8 wins.  6 to 2 sounds about right to us in this one and the Braves have outscored Miami 25 to 8 in the 4 wins in their 4-1 record against the Marlins this season.  That is an average score of 6 to 2 as well.  Another mismatch here and the Marlins have been shutout in each of the first two games in this series as well.  The Marlins just don't have the bats to keep up here.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to invest at a relatively low price in the -125 range with the Braves.  Lay it!

#927 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 9:38 PM ET - The Orioles are not only 15-7 this season, 14 of their 15 wins have been by 2 or more runs.  There is no hesitation for us in laying the 1.5 runs here.  Also, Baltimore is hot as they have won 7 of 8 games!  The Orioles are hitting much better than the Angels this season plus they have the pitching edge here too.  Baltimore's Grayson Rodriguez is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA this season!  The Angels Griffin Canning is 0-3 with an 8.05 ERA this season!  The Orioles have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 9 games.  LA has averaged 1.8 runs per game in their last 5 games, all defeats!  Not only have the Angels lost 5 straight games, they also have lost 10 of 13 since their 6-4 start this season.  11 of 14 Los Angeles defeats this season have come by a multi-run margin.  The Orioles full season slugging percentage is about 100 points higher than that of the Angels who have Trout and Ward and O'Hoppe in their lineup but very little else up and down the lineup!  The Orioles will pull away as this game goes on.  The Angels just don't have the bats to keep up here.  Big edges in this one and a road blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a plus money price in the +105 range with the Orioles.  Lay the 1.5 runs here!

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +1.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Pacers looked like a bunch of young kids that never had a taste of playoff basketball in the first half against the Bucks. Milwaukee was up 69-42 at halftime with Dame Lillard going off for 35-points. Indiana played much better in the second half, outscoring the Bucks 52-40 while holding Lillard scoreless in the second half. Now that the Pacers have the jitters out of the way we expect them to win Game 2 in Milwaukee who will again be without Giannis. Indiana has won 4 of the last six meetings with Milwaukee and they own the best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 23-11-1 ATS record and an average +/- in those games of +4.8PPG. The Bucks have a losing spread record when coming off a win of 23-26 ATS with a plus/minus of +2.7PPG. Milwaukee is not a good defensive team so don’t expect them to hold the Pacers to 40% shooting again or 21% from Deep. Take Indiana in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +3.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:30 PM ET - The T’Wolves were disrespected in Game 1 with an opening line of -1.5 and were coming off a loss to the Suns so they clearly got up for the opener in a resounding 120-95 win. We like the Suns to rebound from that G1 loss and even this series at one win apiece. Phoenix had won 3 straight against the Wolves in the regular season with all of those wins coming by 7+ points. In the regular season finale on this court the Suns won by 19-points. In Game 1 the Wolves got a monster effort from Anthony Edwards who poured in 33 points on 14 of 24 shooting. ANT is obviously capable of those types of performances, but we like the Suns to make adjustments in Game 2 and force him to give up the ball early in the offensive set. Phoenix got a big game from KD who scored 31 and grabbed 7 boards but Booker was relatively quiet with 18-points. Bradley Beal scored just 15 after scoring 36 vs. the Wolves in the last regular season game. The Suns closed out the regular season with 4 straight road wins against Playoff teams and this veteran group will not be intimidated by the moment. The Suns 9-1 ATS streak in this series continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7 vs. LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET - The Nuggets had a long layoff going into Game 1 and it showed as they got off to a slow start and trailed early by as many as 12 points. Denver pulled together and dominated the last 3 quarters of the game. That makes it 9 straight wins for the Nuggets over the Lakers and there is not reason not to expect that trend to continue here. The Lakers are bad defensively, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency as they allow 1.154-points per possession. Since the All-Star break the Lakers rank 23rd in defensive Net rating and have allowed the 3rd most points per game in that time frame at 120.3PPG. Offensively the Lakers are ‘average’ in terms of offensive efficiency ranking 15th in the NBA. As we previously mentioned, Denver has owned the Lakers with 9 straight wins, they rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are 34-8 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Since the beginning of last season, the Nuggets are 78-17 SU at home +9.8PPG. LBJ and AD are soft like warm ice cream and both were dinged up a little in game 1 so don’t expect peak effort here. Lay it with Denver.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - The young Magic had a fantastic regular season at 47-35 SU, but were 29-12 at home. On the road they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. In Game 1 the Cavs won by 14-points and they didn’t even play as well as we expected. The big edge the Cavaliers enjoyed in the opener and will not change here is their size and advantage on the board. Cleveland grabbed 54 rebounds compared to the Magic’s 40. We did expect the Magic to struggle offensively, and they did with only 32 combined points in the 2nd and 3 quarters. For the game the Magic shot just 33% overall and they may shoot better here but the Cavs are also going to improve over their Game 1 performance. Let’s lay it again in Game 2 with Cleveland.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have top 10 efficiency ratings in both offense and defense and are a team capable of coming out of the West statistically. But the reality is that they haven’t played up to those expectations lately with a 5-6 SU record and are now in trouble without Zion Williamson for the foreseeable future. The Pels are coming off two huge emotional home games just to get into the Playoffs and will have a tough time getting up for this Game 1. OKC is well rested, rank 3rd in offensive efficiency, 4th in defensive efficiency, are 33-8 SU at home and win on their own court by an average of +13.3PPG. OKC is 23-12 ATS as a home favorite this season with an average +/- in those games of +15.2PPG. The Thunder have won two straight in this series versus the Pelicans and 4 of the last five. We are backing the round 1, big home favorite in this matchup which has produced steady profits for 10+ years.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -13.5 vs Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - As soon as the Heat vs Bulls game went final I was immediately poised to bet on the Celtics at home minus the points. Boston opened briefly at -12.5 and I was all in. Clearly the line has been adjusted slightly but we still feel there is value with the Celtics. Boston was in cruise control late in the season as they had home court wrapped up and focused on staying healthy down the stretch. Boston was the best team in the NBA the entire season and has the deepest team in the league. The Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. They had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. They won at home by an average of +15.2PPG. The Celtics were near unbeatable at home and owned a 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. In February the C’s were favored by -8-points in Miami so this line isn’t as high as it seems. Miami lost Jimmy Butler to a knee injury in the Play-In games and don’t have enough weapons to trade baskets with Boston. The Heat used a zone defensive effectively against the 76ers and Bulls but those two teams rank 23rd and 18th in team FG%. The Celtics have the 8th best team FG% in the NBA and the 2nd best 3PT% so the Heat zone isn’t going to work in this one. Big favorites in Round 1 have done historically well with a 59% cover rate and we expect the Celtics to make quick work of the Heat who upset them in the Playoffs a year ago.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 9:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the Pelicans as a home dog here. We’ve seen it happen a million times, when a Super Star gets injured, in the very next game, someone shines in their absence. New Orleans is coming off a very tough home loss to the Lakers (outscored by 15 at the FT line) and will bounce back here. Sacramento on the other hand is off a huge win over the Warriors who eliminated them from the postseason last year. These two teams met in Sacramento on April 11th in a ‘must win’ for both teams and the Pelicans never trailed in a 12-point win. The Kings were -1.5-points in that game at home and are now favored on the road? This is a matchup problem for the Kings as they’ve lost 5 straight times this season to New Orleans. The Pelicans are far superior defensively with the 7th best defensive efficiency compared to the Kings who rank 15th. We are expecting a close game throughout but like the Pelicans to get it done at home.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 9:30 PM ET - The Hawks have the worst defense in the playoffs, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession and 120.5PPG. On the road their defense is even worse, and they lost road games this season by an average of -5.4PPG. The Bulls were 20-21 SU at home this season with a negative differential of minus -0.2PPG but 6 of their most recent 7 home losses have come against some of the best teams in the NBA. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the Hawks pulled the upset as a +2-point underdog on this floor 113-101. The Bulls had a horrendous shooting night while the Hawks shot lights out. We expect Chicago to shoot much better this time around against a Hawks defense that is 28th in opponents FG% overall and 3PT% defense. Atlanta is 10-17 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -8.1PPG. The Bulls have a losing ATS record as a home favorite but they do have a positive point differential of +2PPG. The Hawks are without Jalen Johnson which is a huge loss for them even though they get Trae Young back. The Bulls had a few impressive wins late in the season against the T’Wolves, Knicks and Pacers and we expect that momentum to carry over to this game. Lay it with the Bulls.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -2 vs Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - If this game is like the last three in this rivalry it’s going to be close, but we like the veteran Warriors to pull out a win on the Kings court. The last three meetings have been decided by 1-point each with the Kings winning the last two games. Sacramento had their full complement of players for both of those W’s with Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk who are out here. The Warriors come into this game having won 10 of their last twelve games and have the 4th best Net rating (+9.1) in the NBA over that 12-game stretch. The Kings on the other hand have the 13th best Net rating at +3.8 and are 5-7 SU. Golden State is 25-16 SU on the road this season with the 4th best average point differential at +4.5PPG. The Kings are 24-17 SU at home with the 17th rated average point differential at +2.2PPG. With their shortened rotation the Kings have to rely heavily on Domantas Sabonis who has struggled when facing the Warriors and Draymond Green in the past. Golden State is peaking at the right time and we expect them to move on tonight.