ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Which team allows the fewest YPG in the NFL?  Baltimore?  Maybe Chicago?  Nope.  The Bills are now the #1 defense in the NFL allowing just 290 YPG on 4.8 YPP.  That will be a huge problem for the Detroit offense today which has been terrible to say the least.  The Lions offense is averaging only 16 PPG over their last 7.  They were on the road last week at beat Arizona 17-3 with Detroit putting up only 218 total yards and actually getting outgained by the Cards who have the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 242 YPG.  Over the last 6 games this Detroit offense has averaged 4, 4.8, 5.2, 4.8 4.2, and 3 yards per play.  That’s simply terrible and they will have big problems again today against this staunch Buffalo defense.  The Bills are off a home loss to the Jets, however they ran 18 more plays and outgained NY by 120 yards.  Three turnovers were the key in that game.  The Bills are 0-2 the last 2 weeks and but have outgained those 2 opponents by a combined 360 yards!  They have outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents overall with 3 of those coming by at least 120 yards.  This team is undervalued right now because of that.  QB Josh Allen has put up 407 yards passing and 236 yards rushing the last 2 games!  The overall offensive numbers for Buffalo this year are not great but they are absolutely trending up on that side of the ball.  While they average just 292 YPG, they are outperforming that by a long shot as of late averaging almost 400 YPG over their last 4 games.  The last time they were held under 300 was against Chicago over a month ago and the Bills actually outgained the Bears in that game.  Buffalo is still playing hard and this is a big home game for them.  Detroit is on the road for the 2nd straight week, off a deceiving win last week, nothing to play for, and they have division rivals on deck (Vikings &Packers to close out the season).  It’s supposed to be cold in Buffalo today (35 degrees) with snow a possibility.  The road dome team will want nothing to do with this game today.  Lay the small number as Buffalo wins this one going away.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Arizona -6.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

We’ve been looking for a good spot to fade this Baylor team and this is it.  The Bears are nowhere near the team they have been the past few seasons.  They lost a number of key players off last year’s pretty average 19-15 team and they are step down from that squad this season.  The Bears are just 5-3 despite playing the 325th rated strength of schedule.  They have played one true road game (lost @ Wichita State) and haven’t played a game period since December 1st.  That’s 2 full weeks without any game action which is an absolute negative for Baylor in our opinion.  They have faced only one top 100 team this year (lost to Ole Miss on a neutral court) and many of their wins vs poor competition are not impressive.  The Bears lost at home to Texas Southern (ranked 224th in Ken Pom ratings), beat South Dakota (ranked 174th) by 6, beat George Mason (ranked 162nd) by 11, and beat Prairie View A&M (ranked 274th) by just 11.  Not an overly impressive resume for Baylor.  Arizona will be the best team they’ve played this season.  The Cats have had 6 days off (better than 14) since losing a tight game @ Alabama on Sunday (lost 76-73).  Unlike Baylor, the Wildcats have played one of the tougher schedules so far this season (ranked 56th SOS).  They are just 7-3, however their losses (besides Bama) have come at the hands of Gonzaga (ranked 6th in Ken Pom) and Auburn (ranked 9th).  They have also beaten two top 100 teams (UConn on the road & Iowa State on neutral court).  Arizona is 5-0 SU at home this year and rarely lose here at the McKale Center where they are 40-2 SU their last 42 games.  They have shot very well at home this year (49%) and they are lights out from the FT line hitting almost 77% as a team (27th nationally).  They should get plenty of free opportunities here as Baylor fouls and average of 21 times per game which is 295th nationally.  The Bears are a poor shooting team from deep hitting only 30% from beyond the arc and they make only 67% of their FT’s.  This should be a game Zona controls from start to finish and wins by double digits.

ASA 10* play on: #513 L.A. Clippers +6.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET – Nobody or their brothers are betting the Clippers today but us and we’re totally fine with that. Scheduling wise, the situation clearly favors the Clippers as the Thunder are coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Denver and playing their 3rd in four nights. OKC has some impressive numbers but they’ve played an EXTREMELY soft schedule of late that features the Bulls, Nets, Pistons, Hawks and Cavs in their last eight games. The Clippers are mired in a funk, but we expect them to snap out of it today. L.A. is coming a blowout loss in San Antonio on Thursday, so they have rest and motivation heading into tonight. The Clippers have not been an underdog of this size all season and that includes a game here earlier this season when they were +3. Grab the points with the Clippers who can win this outright.

ASA 10* Top Play ON Middle Tennessee State (+) over Appalachian State, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET - We don’t expect App State to be completely focused or prepared for this one. Their head coach, Scott Satterfield, took the head coaching job @ Louisville and took both coordinators with him. On top of that, their interim coach, Mark Ivey, who many of the players hoped would get the job was just eliminated from consideration. The new head coach, just named on Thursday, is an outsider from NC State so the emotional make up of the Mountaineers may not be at its best for this one. That won’t be a problem for MTSU. They are a senior laden team that really want this win. Starting QB Brent Stockstill is a 4-year starter that has over 12,000 passing yards and 105 TD passes! His dad, Rick, is the head coach at MTSU and you can guarantee this team is 100% focused on getting a win to close out this season. The Blue Raiders are coming off a disappointing loss in the Conference USA Championship game losing 27-25 vs UAB. We expect them to bounce back with a big performance here. MTSU has played the tougher schedule (79th nationally) facing 3 SEC teams and vs the 7 bowl teams they played, the Raiders were +39 YPG. App State has one of the easiest strength of schedule (112th nationally) and they were just +26 YPG in the 5 bowl teams they faced this season. MTSU will want to throw the ball here with their talented & experienced QB, it may look like they will have problems against an App State defense that has impressive numbers vs the pass. However, those numbers are as deceiving as they come. That’s because Mountaineers have played one of the easiest passing schedules in the country. The Sun Belt has a number of run heavy teams and that shows up in the defensive stats of Appalachian State. They have faced a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 75 in passing this year and four of their opponents ranked lower than 100. We expect Stockstill to be able to move the ball through the air in this one. App State relies very heavily on the run (42 carries per game) and the MTSU defense has been solid stopping the run this year allowing 4.1 YPC. If you take out their 3 games vs SEC opponents the Raider defense has very solid numbers allowing just 3.69 YPC. Middle Tennessee comes into this game with an 8-5 record with 3 of those setbacks vs SEC teams (all bowl teams). Their other two losses came by 2 points in the Conference USA Championship game and 3 points. We expect a close game here and with MTSU having the motivational edge, we give them a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points.

ASA 9* Play ON North Texas (+) over Utah State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - There is a strong probability that Utah State won't be completely focused nor fully prepared for this one. Their head coach, Matt Wells, left to take the head coaching job at Texas Tech and now the Aggies are being led by a co-defensive coordinator (Frank Maile) in this one. Also favoring North Texas in this match-up is that teams with bad ATS records (33% or less) have historically been good bets in bowl games. Those teams have gone 35-23-1 (60%) against the spread since 2005. North Texas fits within this criteria, as the Mean Green finished the regular season 4-8 ATS (33%). Even though UNT finished with a sub-par ATS record it could also be considered a bit of a statistical anomaly as the Mean Green actually won the yardage battle in all 12 of their games this season! In fact, on the season, North Texas averaged more than 100 yards per game than their foes. The Mean Green are solid defensively and allowing only 359.5 yards per game on the season. North Texas is on a 10-4 ATS run in non-conference action. Also, while UNT did win their final game of the regular season, Utah State suffered a momentum-killing (and very frustrating loss) at Boise State. That is worth taking note of because the Aggies are 3-8 SU (and ATS) when off a loss in conference action. Suffering that letdown against the Broncos and also dealing with the departure of their head coach, this is a tough spot for Utah State to be laying significant points. Against teams with a winning record, Utah State is on a 3-8 ATS (and 2-9 SU) run! Utah State's pass defense is likely to be exploited here as they closed out the season by allowing at least 307 passing yards in each of their four November games. We expect a rather tight game here and with North Texas having the program continuity edge - Utah State certainly dealing with distractions - we give the Mean Green a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points.

ASA play on: #560 Houston Rockets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 8PM ET – Every game LeBron’s involved in there is value on the other side. With public money and tickets streaming in on L.A. the oddsmakers should be moving the number on this game but they aren’t. That tells me they like it where it is. These same two teams met in Los Angeles earlier this year and the Rockets were favored by 3.5 points on the road. Now they are laying a few more points at home. Houston and L.A. got into a riff that game when Rondo and CP3 got into a spat (pun intended). The records of these two teams are very misleading as the 17-10 Lakers have played the 25th easiest schedule in the NBA this season. They are just 3-3 SU their last six on the road. The 12-14 Rockets have played the 3rd toughest schedule and have a 6-1 SU home streak going with wins over Portland, Golden State and Indiana who are all better than the Lakers. Houston has covered 13 of the last eighteen meetings and they’ll get this home win by 10 or more.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Central Florida -9.5 over Georgia Southern, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a bad match up for Georgia Southern.  The Eagles are a bad 3-point shooting team (26% ranks them 334th nationally) that needs to be able to score inside the arc to have a chance.  That will be a struggle tonight as UCF defends inside the arc as well as anyone in the country allowing just 40% which is 5th best nationally.  Part of that is due to their length and shot blocking ability.  The Knights are one of the tallest teams in the nation with 7’6 Tacko Fall manning the middle.  Their block shot rate is almost 15% which ranks them in the top 25 nationally.  They’ll be facing a GSU team that doesn’t have anyone in their rotation taller than 6’8.  UCF has a HUGE edge defensively in this game ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 12th in the country in eFG% defense.  Georgia Southern ranks 163rd and 223rd respectively in those 2 categories.  The Knights are playing their 2nd straight home game while GSU is on the road for the 2nd time in 4 days after they upset Mercer on the road on Saturday making nearly 40% of their 3’s which as we stated above was an outlier.  The Eagles have played only one team ranked in the top 100 this year and that was @ Arizona where they lost 100-70.  For comparison’s sake, UCF is actually rated as a stronger team right now than Arizona ranking 44th nationally while the Wildcats sit at 48th.  GSU wants to play fast and they’ll have trouble doing that here as UCF is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation.  Look for UCF to slow this one down and frustrated an Eagle team that thrives one getting easy baskets.  They won’t be able to do that tonight and we see Central Florida pulling away in the 2nd half for an easy win.  The Knights have been a big time money maker at home going 37-16 ATS their last 53 games here.  Add another spread win to the ledger tonight.  Take UCF.

ASA NFL 8* PLAY ON Baltimore +7 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Chiefs seem to be coming back to the pack a bit.  After covering their first 7 games this season they are now 1-3-1 vs the number the last 5 games.  Last week they struggled with a terrible Oakland team winning 40-33.  KC only outgained a bad Oakland offense by 27 yards and it was a 3-point margin with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game.  A week earlier KC lost to the Rams.  The week before that they struggled with Arizona which was a one score game in the 4th quarter.  Now they must try and function without one of their top offensive weapons with RB Hunt no longer on the team.  They looked fine last week vs a terrible Oakland defense but now they face a top notch Baltimore defense.  The Ravens have the recipe to take down the Chiefs.  They have the best defense in the NFL in YPG and YPP allowed.  Last week they held a potent Atlanta offense to just 131 total yards!  Only 2 teams all season have topped 24 points on this Baltimore defense.  Will they shut down KC potent offense?  No.  But they have a chance to slow them down and if they do, they have a great shot to win this game.  Offensively, since Lamar Jackson took over at QB three weeks ago, Baltimore has rolled up huge rushing numbers with 267, 242, and 207 yards on the ground.  Because of that, they’ve controlled the clock with a time of possession edge 38:00 to 22:00 over the last 3 games.  Those numbers will come in handy here as the Ravens will be able to keep KC’s offense on the sideline by controlling the ball.  The Chiefs defense vs the run is the worst in the NFL allowing 5.1 YPC so look for Baltimore’s running game to continue to thrive on Sunday.  They can’t stop the run and the Chiefs defense has looked terrible the last 2 weeks allowing 54 & 33 points.  This is a huge game for the Ravens as they are battling for their playoff lives.  They are currently behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North and are fighting numerous teams for a potential wildcard spot.  KC has a great record, however looking as their season long stats, they are only outgaining their opponents by 20 YPG.  Baltimore outgains their opponents by 90 YPG on the season.  The Ravens have been great in the role of underdog covering 14 of their last 17 in that spot.   They do it again on Sunday and we give them a great shot to pull the upset.

ASA NFL 8* PLAY ON Indianapolis +4.5 over Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love taking a team off a shutout loss this late in the NFL season, especially when it’s a team fighting for the playoffs. Nobody will want to back the Colts in this situation as last weeks results are fresh in their minds, plus they are play the Texans who have just ripped off 9 straight wins. But stop and ask yourself this, why is the line so low and it looks like an obvious bet on Houston. Let’s consider the number on this game too. Houston went to Indy in late September and were favored by 1-point which means they should be at least 9 or 10 here but Vegas set the number this low? They want you to bet Houston! The 9-3 Texans are 8th in the NFL in average margin of victory at +5.6PPG and five of their last nine wins have come by single scores. The Colts on the other hand are 6-6 SU for the year but yet have a positive differential of +3.8PPG which is the best number in the league (11th) by a team with a non-winning record. Let’s not forget the Colts had won 5 straight games prior to last week’s aberration in Jacksonville. You might be surprised to know this, but the Colts defense has flown under the radar this season but have been pretty good. Indianapolis allows just 5.7 yards per play which is slightly more than the 5.6YPPL the Texans allow. When it comes to overall defensive efficiency numbers the Colts rank 11th in the NFL while Houston is 6th so not a dramatic difference. Offensively the Colts are better than Houston when it comes to overall offensive efficiency numbers. If history tells us anything this will be a close game as 7 of the last eight meetings between these two AFC South rivals have been decided by just one score. Grab the points with Indianapolis.

ASA play on: #704 Indiana Pacers -4 over Sacramento Kings, 7:05PM ET - We’re betting a number here not a team as the value clearly lies with Indiana in this match up. If you haven’t followed the NBA this year then you probably don’t know how well the Kings have played. They are 13-11 SU and are building momentum in the West. Sacramento is coming two straight road wins but they came against the two worst teams in the league, at Phoenix and Cleveland. Indiana has won two straight games since losing to this same Kings team in Sacramento on Dec. 1st. It was a close game down to the wire which the Kings pulled out at home 111-110. The interesting part about that game is the fact that Indiana was favored by -2-points THERE and are now laying just -4-points at home. Indiana is 7-4 SU at home this year with an average margin of victory of +6.1PPG. The Kings do have a positive road differential but it hasn’t been a tough schedule away from home for them. They also have done well when playing without rest this year while the Pacers are 4-0 SU in that scheduling situation. Bet the best number on the board today...bet Indiana!

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Nebraska -7.5 over Creighton, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

The Huskers have the best team they’ve had in a long time and if they are ever going to knock off their little brother, today is the day.  The Huskers have lost 7 straight years vs the Blue Jays and this is perhaps their most anticipated home game of the season.  They’ve been waiting for this one and we expect the Huskers to be at the top of their game as they attempt to win their 17th straight home game dating back to last year.  Nebraska should have even more incentive as they are coming off a loss @ Minnesota earlier this week.  It was a game they led by 10 with just over 8:00 minutes remaining only to see the Gophers outscore them 27-10 down the stretch.  The Nebraska defense was poor in that game allowing Minny to hit 52% of their shots.  However, that is a rarity with this team as they have been outstanding defensively this year ranking 4th nationally in eFG% defense (11th nationally defending the 3 & 9th nationally defending inside the arc).  After that poor effort, we can expect a high level performance defensively on Saturday.  This is Creighton’s first true road game of the season and we like fading teams on the road that rely heavily on the 3-point shot.  The Blue Jays are the definition of that as over 40% of their points come from deep (16th nationally).  Hot shooting often doesn’t travel well and this Blue Jay team cannot rely on their defense to keep them in the game if they aren’t on from deep.  They rank just 250th nationally in eFG% defense and they will struggle slowing down a very talented Nebraska offense in this game.  In their meeting last year, the Huskers led at half @ Creighton and the Blue Jays only led by 3 with under 1:00 minute remaining in what turned out to be a 75-65 win.  Nebraska returns 52 of their 65 points scored in that game while this young Creighton team (301st nationally in experience) returns just 23 of their 75 points.  The Huskers continue to be undervalued in our opinion with a 6-2 ATS record this year and a 24-6-1 spread mark dating back to last year.  They are 21-1 here since the start of last season with their only loss coming by 1-point last season vs Kansas.  This is the game they really want and we have a feeling that Nebraska will roll in this one.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -2.5 over Houston, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

Houston comes into this game with an undefeated record, however they have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the nation thus far.  The Cougars have played 6 home games and just 1 road game this season and they have faced only one team ranked inside the top 70.  Five of their seven opponents are currently ranked 240th or lower.  This is a tough spot for Houston as after this game they return home to face LSU next week which is a huge revenge game for them.  They lost by 3 points @ LSU and missed two 3-pointers in the final 10 seconds in an attempt to send the game to OT.  Okie State, on the other hand, has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far.  They are just 4-4 but have played only 2 home games this year.  The Cowboys are coming off back to back losses @ Minnesota & @ Tulsa and really need a win here, their first home game since November 18th.  Despite playing all but 2 of their games away from home, OSU has shot the ball very well ranking 26th nationally in eFG% (56%) and 10th nationally in 3-point FG% (43%).  Houston relies heavily on the 3 point shot (39% of their points – 35th nationally) which can be tough to lean on when playing away from home.  We think Houston comes in a bit flat while OSU is backed into a corner at home.  With this line sitting at OSU -1, simply pick the winner here and we feel that will be the Cowboys.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Jacksonville +6 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

These two met earlier this year and the Jags were favored by 10 at home.  Now they are a 5.5 or 6 point underdog which means this game has swung more than 2 TD’s from the first meeting which is too much.  The Titans did win that first match up by a final score of 9-6.  The Jaguars seem to get an emotional boost last week when they replaced Bortles with Kessler at QB.  They beat a red hot Indy team that had won 5 straight games averaging 35 PPG over that span.  The Jax defense held the Colts scoreless on just 3.9 YPP.  Now they face a Tennessee offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in YPG, YPP, and scoring (18 PPG).  Now the Titans are being asked to win by nearly a TD against a defense that shut them down to 233 yards on 4.1 YPP in the first meeting.  That’s going to be very tough in our opinion.  The Jags offense isn’t great obviously but we think the insertion of Kessler at QB can’t be any worse than Bortles.  He threw for 150 yards last week but more importantly didn’t turn the ball over and let his defense win the game for him.  That’s the recipe for success again tonight.  Jacksonville will get a boost with their top RB Fournette back this week after serving his one game suspension in last week’s win.  Despite their records, Jacksonville is +20 YPG with their 4-8 record while Tennessee is -30 YPG and sit at .500 (6-6).  Four of Tennessee’s six wins have come by 4 points or less and tonight will be no different.  If the Titans win, we expect a close game and we’ll give the Jaguars a decent shot to win the game outright.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Purdue -6.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

Purdue will be extra hungry for a win after losing 2 straight and 3 of their last 4.  The Boilers 3 losses this year have come against top tier opponents all ranked in the top 17 according to Ken Pom.  They lost by 6 to Va Tech (ranked 10) on a neutral court, lost by 1 @ Florida State (ranked 17), and were just beaten bad @ Michigan (ranked 5).  Now back home after getting walloped by the Wolverines we expect an all out effort from the Boilers.  They are 3-0 at home this year and Purdue has won 26 of their last 27 games at Mackey Arena.  Not only do the Boilers win at home, most of the time they win handily with 17 of their last 26 home wins coming by double digits.  Tonight they take on a very young Maryland team that ranks 350th in experience out of 351 teams.  Of the Terps top 9 players in terms of minutes played, 5 are freshmen.  They have played just one road game the entire season and that was way back on November 9th.  Not only that, their opponent in that game was Navy so the game was @ Navy which is just 30 miles away from the Maryland campus.  The young Terps won that game but let’s keep in mind Navy is currently ranked 321st (out of 351) and has just two wins this year vs Coppin State & Bryant.  We think this Maryland team has some promise this year, however this is a terrible spot for a team that has played 6 straight home games.  Most of their key contributors have never experience a venue like Mackey Arena and the Boilers are backed into a corner.  Purdue was favored by 14 here last year in this match up and now they are laying half that number vs a Maryland team that overturned much of their roster.  Lay it with Purdue.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma -3 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

The Irish come into this game with a 6-1 record but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far.  Their strength of schedule ranks 320th nationally and they have yet to leave their home arena.  The Sooners, on the other hand, will be more than ready for this setting as they have already played 2 true road games AND 3 neutral site games this season.  They have also played the MUCH tougher schedule ranking 36th in SOS.  Okie is 6-1 as well, but they have already played 4 top 100 teams and their lone loss was to #13 Wisconsin on a neutral site.  The Sooners have been very good defensively ranking 28th nationally in defensive efficiency and 26th in eFG% defense.  They are fantastic defending inside the arc allowing opponents to shoot just 37.7% (3rd nationally) and they do not send teams to the line as just 20% of their opponents points have come from the charity stripe (3rd best in the nation).  That’s going to be a huge problem for a Notre Dame team that has relied heavily on getting to the line with 24% of their points coming from the stripe (39th nationally).  No home cooking here for the Irish along with a team that doesn’t foul and defends outstanding inside the arc means they’ll have to hit their 3’s to have a shot.  The problem is, they are making just 31% of their shots from beyond the arc this year (238th nationally) and those shaky numbers have all come at home.  Now they must try and find the range in a tough shooting venue, Madison Square Garden.   Oklahoma is a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting lineup and they are well prepared for this spot.  We think the Irish, with 3 new starters, will take some time to gel this year and we don’t expect that to happen in their first game away from home this season.  Lay the small number with Oklahoma.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Rutgers +13 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8:00 PM ET

This is a tough spot for Wisconsin.  They are coming off a huge road win on Friday night @ Iowa and we have a feeling it will be tough for them to play at a peak level physically and emotionally in this game.  Rutgers is off a home loss to Michigan State on Friday night (we were on MSU) but we have to say we’ve been impressed with the Scarlet Knights early in the season.  That was a rough spot for them as they had just beaten a solid Miami FL on the road a few days earlier and were catching the Spartans off a tight loss @ Louisville.  We thought MSU would respond well and they did but Rutgers hung in until the end losing by 11 as an 8-point dog.  These are two very slow paced teams and the total is set in the 125 range so a low scoring game is expected.  With a lower number of possessions, that will make it very tough for Wisconsin to win this one going away.  On top of that, Rutgers plays outstanding defense so nothing will be easy here for the Badgers.  The Knights are allowing just 59 PPG on only 38% shooting by their opponents.  They rank 19th nationally in defensive efficiency.  This team is also very solid on the boards and were outrebounded for the first time this year on Friday night vs Michigan State (only by 5).  Third year head coach Steve Pikiell has this team headed in the right direction.  They’ve played Wisconsin very tough the last few years winning at home by 4 last year and losing in OT here at the Kohl Center 2 seasons ago.  The Badgers have a huge game on deck with state rival Marquette so this is a true sandwich type game for Wisconsin.  UW is very solid this year and they’ll win this game, we just don’t see them pulling way for a decisive victory.  Rutgers plus the points here.

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh-3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR

We faded Pittsburgh last week @ Denver and picked up a win with the Broncos.  The Steelers were in a terrible spot playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and their second of back to back on the road.  On top of that they had to come from 16 points down late in their previous game @ Jacksonville to pick up a late win.  With all that, the Steelers actually played much better than we thought they would under those circumstances.  They outgained a solid Denver team by over 200 yards but turnovers were the key in that one.  Pitt fumbled at the Denver 1-yard line, fumbled at the Denver 20-yard line, threw an interception at midfield, AND threw a pick in the endzone in the final seconds as they were going in for the tying score.  Those mistakes prevented them from winning their 7th straight game.  We expect Pittsburgh to play very well at home off that loss.  They are a perfect 6-0 ATS their last 6 games following an outright loss and 30-15 ATS long term in that situation.  Despite that loss the Steelers are at the top of their game right now.  They have outgained 7 straight opponents by a combined 1,100 yards or by an average of 157 YPG.  Since losing at home to Baltimore in late September the Steelers have won 3 straight home games by margins of 24, 15, and 31 points.  The Chargers are 4-1 on the road, however 3 of those 4 wins have come against the Bills, Browns, and Raiders.  Their lone solid road win was @ Seattle and in fact the Seahawks, who are 6-5, are the only team currently above .500 that the Chargers have beaten this year.  In fact, the only other two teams the Chargers have played this year that are currently above .500 are the Rams & Chiefs and they lost both of those games by double digits.  LA will also most likely be without one of the key offensive weapons as RB Melvin Gordon injured his knee last week and is doubtful here.  Chargers not 100% and traveling east will be a tough spot.  The Steelers have played really well at home late in the season with a 43-14 SU record with Roethlisberger under center.  We expect Pitt take out their frustrations from last week here and roll over the Chargers.

#309 ASA 9* PLAY ON Memphis (+) over UCF, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET This is a revenger for the Tigers who faced off against UCF at home on October 13th and lost 31-30. Memphis led that game 30-17 at half and were held scoreless in the 2nd half in the 1-point loss. Not only that, Memphis lost twice last year to UCF including a 62-55 setback in OT in the AAC Championship game. The Tigers led that game at half as well and took a 7-point lead in the first OT only to lose in the 2nd OT. Memphis was hoping for this rematch and they get it. The one big difference is UCF QB and leader McKenzie Milton will not be playing in this game after a season ending injury last week vs USF. That’s simply too big of a loss to overcome for the Knights. To put his loss in perspective, Milton accounted for 1,200 total yards and 11 TD’s in those 3 games vs Memphis we discussed above. Even with that, the Tigers went to the wire with a chance to win in the most recent 2 match ups. Milton’s replacement is freshman Darriel Mack Jr who has very little experience. He started one game this year with Milton out and UCF topped a bad ECU team and Mack threw for just 69 yards. The Knights were actually outgained in that game by an ECU team that has just 3 wins on the season. For the season, Mack has attempted just 43 passes and completed less than 50% of those throws (just 4 yards per pass attempt). That should allow the Memphis defense to focus mainly on stopping the run which they’ve been solid at this year (3.9 YPC allowed). The Tigers have proven they can score a move the ball against a UCF defense that is the weak point of their team allowing over 400 YPG. UCF, with Mack now at QB, has not proven they can do the same. We’ll take the points here and call for Memphis to pull the upset which is not really an upset in our mind.

#334 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON California (+) over Stanford, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Stanford has dominated this series in recent years and that has resulted in some extra attention from the betting markets this week. The Cardinal have risen to as high as a 3 1/2 point favorite as of mid-day Friday and we feel we're getting excellent home dog value here. California has been the much better defense this season in comparison with Stanford. Although the Cardinal passing attack ranks the edge over the Golden Bears, the Cal pass defense is allowing nearly 100 passing yards less per game in comparison with the Stanford pass D. Though the Cardinal are off back to back wins, those victories came against UCLA and Oregon State! Prior to these B2B wins, Stanford had lost 4 of its 5 prior games and now the Cardinal take on a Cal team that has won 4 of its last 5 SU and gone 4-0-1 ATS in the process! The Bears opportunistic ways have been a recurring theme as Cal has forced a total of 13 turnovers the past 5 weeks. By comparison, Stanford has forced a total of only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, California is 38-22 ATS (including 7-3 ATS in recent seasons). Stanford, when off a win over Pac-12 foe, has gone 5-10-2 ATS including 0-3-1 ATS this season. Grab the points with the undervalued home dog in the annual "Big Game" between these Pac-12 rivals Saturday.

#329 ASA 9* PLAY ON Marshall (+) over Virginia Tech, Saturday at Noon ET - The common thinking here will be to back the team the team that needs this game for bowl eligibility and plays in the tougher conference. However, Virginia Tech is off a rivalry game win over Virginia. Not only could that leave the Hokies running a little low on "fuel" here - both physically and mentally - that was also just the 2nd win for Virginia Tech in their past 7 games. Both wins have come by just 3 points. The Hokies are allowing 205 rushing yards per game this season while the Thundering Herd rush defense is surrendering only 100 yards per game. Also, Virginia Tech QB Willis has struggled in his last two games and has thrown 4 picks against just 2 TD's plus he has completed less than 50% of his passes. The Thundering Herd have been enjoying a resurgence since QB Green returned. He has thrown 6 TDs against 3 TDs in recent games while also completing close to 60% of his passes. Marshall is on a 12-3 ATS run as an underdog while Virginia Tech is on an overall 1-6 ATS run entering this one. The injury report for this game also shows that the Hokies are in much worse shape than the Thundering Herd in that department as well. Grab the points with the undervalued road dog in this non-conference match-up going very early Saturday.

#304 ASA 9* PLAY ON Buffalo (-) over Northern Illinois, Friday at 7 PM ET - The Huskies are stumbling into the MAC Championship Game as Northern Illinois is off back to back losses. The Bulls, on the other hand, are 7-1 (SU and ATS) in their 8 MAC games this season and are very hungry to finally erase their history of struggles against the Huskies. Undoubtedly, Buffalo is favored over Northern Illinois here with good reason! Much is made of the Huskies strong defense but the Bulls defensive stats in terms of overall yardage allowed are equal to that of Northern Illinois. Also, Buffalo has the much more dangerous offense and is averaging 15 points more (and 101 yards more) per game in comparison with the Huskies. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois is 0-4 (SU and ATS) as a neutral field underdog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Grab the Bulls and lay the small points. Buffalo rolls in the MAC Championship Game early Friday evening.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Rutgers, Friday at 6:00 PM ET

After back to back impressive wins over UCLA by 20 and Texas by 10, the Spartans were upended in OT on Tuesday night @ Louisville.  MSU (-4.5) led with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game but blew it and lost in OT.  Sparty dominated most of the key stats hitting 47% of their shots to just 39% for Louisville along with destroying the Cards on the boards 45 to 28.  So how did they lose?  The officials had a big say in that as they sent Louisville to the charity stripe 40 times and they outscored MSU by 16 points at the line.  Expect the Spartans to bounce back and play very well here after that loss.  They catch Rutgers coming off an upset road win @ Miami 57-54 on Wednesday.  That means the Scarlet Knights only have 48 hours before they tip off in this one while MSU has a full extra day.  It was a big win for the Knights but overall their schedule has been ultra light facing just 2 teams ranked inside the top 160 this year.  One was a win over Miami, the other a 20 point home loss to St Johns.  MSU, on the other hand, has already faced the likes of Kansas, UCLA, Louisville, and Texas this season.  Rutgers offense is stagnant at best ranking 270th in offensive efficiency and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 4 straight games.  Facing an MSU defense that allows 37% from the field and ranks 18th in defensive efficiency we expect another poor performance from Rutgers offensively.  Sparty, on the other hand, has scored at least 78 points in every game this season.  Rutgers is going to have a tough time keeping up in this game.  The Spartans are 6-0 in this series with 5 of those 6 wins coming by double digits.  MSU off a loss is a solid play here.

ASA 10* play on: #501 Golden State +9 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET - Yeah, anytime you get the World Champs plus points it’s worth an immediate look. Granted, the Warriors are without Steph Curry and Draymond Green but they still have a cast of players that make them one of the best in the league. The Warriors are one of just nine teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.9PPG. Sure, they have lost 5 road contests this season but those L’s came against the Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Clippers and Denver. Toronto is good. Very good and they have a home point differential of +9.5PPG which is 4th best in the NBA BUT that has come against a schedule that is 84-106 SU overall. When the Warriors were at full strength last year in the Finals they were favored in Cleveland and now they are catching nearly double-digits in Toronto. These two teams are nearly identical in offensive efficiency but the Raptors do hold an advantage when it comes to DEFF but Golden State has played the tougher schedule. Don’t be fooled by the Raptors last three home wins which came against 7-13 Miami, 8-13 Washington and 7-16 Knicks. This is a whole different level of team in Golden State who can easily win this outright. Our last point is this, the Raptors were favored by 12 and 10 points against the Heat and Wizards and they are laying a similar number here? This will be close!

ASA 10* play on: #716 New Orleans Pelicans -6 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET - Several factors favor the Pelicans here including revenge as these same two teams squared off in Washington on Saturday with the Wiz winning by 10. A big key to that win though was the absence of Anthony Davis for the Pelicans. It’s extremely hard to replace his 27PPG and 12.8RPG as he’s clearly one of the elite players in the entire NBA. Davis and the Pels have lost 4 straight games, 3 on the road and most recently at home to the Celtics, so expect a concentrated effort by the Pelicans at home tonight. New Orleans is 8-2 SU at home this season with an average point differential of +4.9PPG while 4 of their last five home wins have been decided by double-digits. Washington has been horrendous on the road this year with a 2-7 SU record and an average differential of minus -12.1PPG which is 3rd worst in the NBA. What makes matters worse for the Wizards is that only three of those 9 road games were at playoff teams from a year ago. In their road games against comparable opponents the Wiz have been blown out this season and with their chemistry at an all time low, we don’t expect a great effort here.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Wisconsin -8 over NC State, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

NC State comes into Madison with a perfect 6-0 record, however to say they have taken it easy in their early season schedule would be putting gin mildly.  This team has played the EASIEST schedule in Division 1 college basketball thus far (SOS ranked 353rd).  They have played all 6 games at home and their opponents have been Mount St Mary’s, Maryland Eastern Shore, UNC Ashville, Maine, St Peter’s, and Mercer.  Four of those six opponents are ranked below 300 and the best team they’ve played, Mercer, is ranked 175th.  That game was on Saturday and went to the wire with NC State holding on for a 78-74 win.  Wisconsin will be much more prepared for this caliber of opponent.  They have already beaten Xavier (on the road), Oklahoma (neutral site), Stanford (neutral site) with their lone loss coming by 7 points at the hands of #3 Virginia on a neutral court.  Despite their tough schedule the Badger’s wins have all been fairly convincing with their closest coming by 9 points @ Xavier.  They topped Oklahoma by 20 & Stanford by 16.  Wisconsin’s defense has been outstanding ranking 7th in nationally in adjusted efficiency.  They have allowed less than 60 points in 4 of their 6 games.  They’ll make it very tough on an NC State offense that has put up lots of points (90 PPG) but hasn’t played a defense ranked inside the top 171 in efficiency.  Offensively the Badgers have shot the ball very well from deep (42% from beyond the arc) and with the top post presence in the country inside in Ethan Happ, they are tough to defend.  They rank 19th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.  NC State has not faced an offense ranked higher than 180 and 4 of the 6 offenses they’ve faced are ranked 336th or lower which means the bottom 17 in all of college basketball.  UW has been home from their Bahamas tourney since Friday night so they’ve had plenty of time to rest and get ready for this one.  As we mentioned the Wolfpack are playing their first road game of the season and they are a putrid 7-20 ATS their last 27 away from home.  The trend continues on Tuesday and the Badgers roll up a double digit win at home.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Bad spot for the Steelers playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and coming off a come from behind win last week.  They trailed 16-0 @ Jacksonville late in the 3rd quarter and pulled a dramatic comeback scoring in the final seconds to win 20-16.  That was a huge double revenge game for them after losing @ Jacksonville in the regular season last year and then losing at home to the Jags in the playoffs.  Now they have to take another long trip west which will be tough off a win they really wanted.  Denver has some momentum coming off an upset win @ LA Chargers last week.  Despite their overall record of 4-6, the Broncos have outgained their opponents on a YPP basis and have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL already having faced KC (twice), LA Chargers, LA Rams, Houston, Baltimore, and Seattle.  They don’t have a great home record (2-3 in Denver) but their losses have come by 4 points to KC, 3 points to Rams, and 2 points to Houston.  The Broncos have been a fantastic home underdog over the long haul with a 30-16 ATS record since 1980.  On top of that, Pitt has had very little success as a road favorite on the west coast going just 2-12 ATS when favored on the road vs AFC West opponents.  These two teams have met 6 times since 2007 with the home team winning 5 of those games.  We see that happening again with Denver pulling the upset.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC GAME OF THE WEEK

We like the value here with Carolina at home coming off 2 road losses.  The Panthers need this win as they’ve dropped to 6-4 after losing @ Pittsburgh & @ Detroit.  Laying only a FG is definite value in our opinion.  These two both just played @ Detroit with in the last few weeks and while Seattle was +3 in Detroit, the Panthers were -4.  Seattle’s most recent two road games they were +10 @ Rams and +3 @ Detroit as mentioned above.  That tells us Carolina should definitely be laying a bigger number here but off 2 losses it’s lower than it should be.  The Panthers have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are much better at home than they have been on the road this year.  They are 5-0 at home this year averaging 32 PPG while averaging only 20 PPG on the road.  Four of their five home wins have come by at least 8 points.  Cam Newton has been much better at home as well completing 67% of his passes with 8 TD’s and just 2 interceptions.  Seattle will be on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and their road wins have come against lower tier NFL teams (Arizona, Oakland, and Detroit).  When they’ve had to play better teams away from  home, they’ve lost.  These two have met 5 times since the start of the 2014 season with the home team covering 4 of those.  We expect another home team win and cover on Sunday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -4.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

The Buffs are coming off a 70-64 road loss @ San Diego on Tuesday (we were on San Diego -4) and have had a few days to recoup for this trip.  It’s definitely not a tough travel spot for CU as Air Force is just 97 miles away.  In their loss @ USD on Tuesday, the Buffs played fairly well against an experienced team that had 20 wins a year ago.  CU led by 1 late in the game but were unable to hold on.  Turnovers and rebounding were a problem in that game as we thought they might be.  However, today they play an Air Force team that was just 12-19 last year and has started this season 2-3.  The Falcons are not a great rebounding team (245th nationally in offensive rebounding) and they do not create turnovers (17% forced TO rate which is 252nd nationally) so those aspects shouldn’t be a problem today for Colorado.  AF has not played a team ranked in the top 150 yet this season and even so they have 3 losses (vs High Points, UMBC, and Texas State).  Despite their easy schedule to date, they’ve turned the ball over at an alarming rate (26.5% which is 347th nationally) and they are not an efficient offense (272nd nationally).  Despite their loss @ San Diego, Colorado coach Tad Boyle was very pleased with his team’s defense as they allowed the Toreros to make just 37% of their shots.  They should be able to shut down this struggling AF offense who is averaging just 63 PPG vs teams not named Johnson & Wales (yes they played that team and that is one of AF’s win).  Colorado won this meeting by 12 last and has won 8 straight in this series (all but 1 by at least 7 points).  Colorado gets the cover on the road here.

#234 ASA 9* play on Arizona (+) over Arizona State, 3:30 PM ET - The home team has won each of the last five meetings between Arizona and Arizona State. The Wildcats are seeking revenge here as they lost last year when the Sun Devils came back from being down by double digits to win by a dozen points on their home field. Look for home field to again be a key factor in this season's match-up. Both teams are off losses last week but there is a key scheduling edge here the way we see it. That's because, although both teams played in the Pacific Northwest last week (ASU in Eugene, Oregon against Ducks and Wildcats in Pullman, WA against the Cougars), Arizona just enjoyed the benefits of a bye two weeks ago. As for Arizona State, their bye was quite some time back and this is their sixth straight week of action. Also, for the Sun Devils, this is their third road game in the past five weeks. Another factor here is that Arizona State already has their 6th win but Arizona still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. The Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Arizona State is 2-4 ATS (and 0-6 SU!) in road games with a total set between 63.5 and 70 points. That system fits here and, base on the line here, that 0-6 SU run is certainly worth noting. Arizona is already 3-0 ATS this season when off a loss against a conference foe and the Wildcats are set up well to add another W to that record. In home games with a total set between 63.5 and 70 points, Arizona has a record of 17-6 SU the last 23. We won’t be surprised when the Wildcats win this game in a blowout at home. Bet Arizona!

#170 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin (-) over Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for Wisconsin. They are coming off a rejuvenating, come from behind win @ Purdue last week and it looks like QB Jack Coan finally found his stride. It was his 3rd start and in his first 2 the play calling was very conservative. We liked the way the game was called offensively much better last week as the passing game became a threat. That passing game should be wide open this week vs the Gophers as Wisconsin’s running game should be very effective. The Badgers lead the Big Ten in rushing and 4th nationally at 277 YPG. UW gashed Purdue for well over 300 yards rushing last week which opened up the passing game. Same scenario this week. They are facing a Minnesota defense that has allowed over 300 YPG rushing on the road this year including 430 yards by Illinois in their most recent road tilt. The Gophs are the youngest team in the nation (53% of their roster are freshmen) and because of that they’ve been solid at home but terrible on the road. They are 0-4 in road games allowing 45 PPG. Minnesota had a great shot at their 6th win last week at home vs a Northwestern team that had already clinched the Big Ten West and had nothing to play for. Even with that, the Cats won by 10. We have a strong feeling that Minnesota knows that was their chance to get to bowl eligible and will have a tough time in this game. Wisconsin has won this meeting 14 straight seasons and the coaches and players are stressing this week they do not want to be the team to blow that streak. The last 8 Badger wins in this series have come by double digits and in their home finale they will be sky high. Another double digit win for Wisconsin and this one could get ugly if they get up early which we think they will.

#143 ASA 9* PLAY ON Washington (+) over Washington State, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - The Huskies have dominated this series with 4 straight wins both SU and ATS. This is a big rivalry game and this year's carries some extra meaning for certain. Not only are these teams battling it out at the top of the Pac-12 North, the Cougars are going for an all-time record 11th win on the season. Of course with the low spread posted on this game, it may seem enticing to back Washington State on a 13-game winning streak at home and also having already tied the school record with a 10th win on the year. However, Washington is not going to relinquish their supremacy in this rivalry so easily! The fact is that the Huskies have played a tougher strength of schedule this season. Also, Washington is offering great value here because they've had a tough season ATS and this is overshadowing the fact that they have had a solid season SU. The Cougars have been the hot ATS team and are garnering the attention of the betting markets. One of things we favor overall in terms of betting situations is "running road dogs" that also play solid defense. The Huskies are gaining more than twice as much rushing yardage per game as the Cougars this season. Also, in the last 2 meetings between these teams, Washington has out-gained Washington State by an average of over 200 rushing yards per game in the last two meetings between these rivals. The Huskies are allowing just 16.6 points per game on the season and have allowed 24 points or less in 10 of 11 games this season. The Cougars have allowed 28 points or more in 4 of their last 8 games. Grab the road dog. Washington rolls in this one Friday evening.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion -6.5 over Northern Iowa, Friday at 7:00 PM ET

These two just played on Monday so we get a quick revenge spot for ODU.  They faced off in St Thomas Virgin Islands just 5 days ago and UNI pulled off the 54-53 win as a 2.5 point underdog.  The Monarchs had a nightmare offensive performance in that game making only 32% of their shots including 7 of 24 from beyond the arc.  ODU controlled the boards with 13 offensive rebounds (just 2 for UNI) and because that they attempted 61 shots to just 49 for the Panthers.  Because they shot so poorly it didn’t matter.  However, now they are at home for the first time since November 6th and we expect a much better offensive game from the Monarchs.  They should control the boards again and this team those extra opportunities will turn into points.  We also don’t expect Northern Iowa to make 11 of their 25 shots from beyond the arc (44%) as they did in that first game.  All of that and UNI still only won by a single point.  ODU has struggled shooting but they’ve been on the road for all but one game.  Their defense has been a constant allowing only one of their five opponents to top 56 points.  This team returns 4 of their top 7 players from a team that was 25-7 a year ago.  They’ve won 15 of their last 17 home games and will be extra motivated here in this quick revenge spot.  Northern Iowa played in the Virgin Islands on Friday, Saturday, and Monday just as ODU did, however they are back on the road again in a tough scheduling spot.  They have also won just ONCE in their last 13 true road games.  Lay it as Old Dominion rolls.

#117 ASA 9* PLAY ON East Carolina (+) over Cincinnati, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - The Bearcats officially took themselves out of the AAC Championship race last week with a 38-13 loss @ UCF.  That was basically a championship type game as the winner was locked into the AAC Title game.  It’s going to be very tough for the Bearcats to bounce back and play at a high level this week vs ECU.  Cincy is going to a bowl game no matter what so while this one isn’t meaningless, it’s close.  The Pirates are MUCH better than their 3-7 record might indicate.  They are actually outgaining their opponents by 58 YPG despite their 3 wins.  This team can hang around because they can score.  They average 456 YPG offensively and they’ve outgained 7 of their 10 opponents.  They’ve hung in fairly well against the AAC other top teams this year with turnovers usually taking them out of contention for upsets in those games.  Earlier this year against UCF they lost 37-10, however the Pirates were +7 first downs, +70 in total yardage in that game.  They also had 5 turnovers, missed a FG, were shut out on downs at the UCF 8-yard line, AND gave up a 94-yard fumble recovery for a TD.  That game was much closer than the final score indicated.  Against the other two teams vying for a spot in the AAC Championship game, the Pirates were competitive as well.  They lost by 18 to Memphis but it was a 4-point game entering the 4th quarter.  Against Houston the same scenario.  They lost by 22 but Houston returned a fumble for a TD and ECU had more first downs & more yardage.  Cincy comes in a bit overvalued as they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 to the spread.  Now laying a huge number in a bad spot we look for ECU to cover this spread.

#112 ASA 9* play on Air Force (-) over Colorado State, 3:30 PM ET - The Falcons have out-gained the Rams by a combined 547 rushing yards in the past two meetings. Of course Air Force is known for their ground attack but Colorado State has held a passing edge in the past two meetings. The Rams passing game may not be so successful in this one however. They have had only one strong game in the air out of 5 games away from home this season. In their other 4 games away from Fort Collins, Colorado State has averaged only 195 passing yards per game. The Rams are off a very tough late-game loss to Utah State as they very nearly pulled off a huge upset. That is the type of defeat that tends to be the most difficult to bounce back from. Colorado State also is just 1-4 ATS in games not played at Fort Collins. The Rams are 2-6 ATS the last 8 times as a conference dog of more than 14 points when off a SU loss. In road games with a total set between 56.5 and 63 points the Rams are on a 9-20 ATS run. All 3 of the wins that Air Force has at home this season have come by 18 points or more. The average margin of victory for Air Force in their home wins has been 28 points this season. The Rams last 4 losses have been by an average margin of 21 points. The forecast is more of the same in this one. We won’t be surprised when the Falcons win this game in a blowout at home. Lay the points!

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Detroit +3..5 over Chicago, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET

Brutal spot here for Chicago.  They were flexed into the Sunday night game against division rival Minnesota and now must play a Thursday morning game on the road.  Thursday road teams are 2-9 SU this year because of the tough travel and short week and this game is even magnified more for Chicago based the late Sunday start and the A.M. Thursday start.  The Bears might be without QB Trubisky in this game as he injured his throwing shoulder vs Minnesota.  If he doesn’t play it will be Chase Daniel at QB.  We would probably rather have Trubisky play with a bum shoulder as he’s struggled this year on the road anyway.  His home numbers are far superior to his road numbers (16 TD’s at home and just 4 on the road.  Chicago has had an easy road slate facing Buffalo, Arizona, Miami, and Green Bay and they are just 2-2.  They barely beat Arizona on the road and their big win @ Buffalo was very deceiving as they only had 190 total yards but the Bills were a turnover machine in that game.  Detroit has been solid at home beating the Patriots, Packers, and Panthers here.  All 3 of those teams have beaten Chicago this year for what it’s worth.  After struggling on the road earlier this month Detroit has some momentum coming off their Sunday win here vs Carolina.  They also should be extra motivated after losing @ Chicago just 2 weeks ago.  That was just the 2nd time in the last 11 meetings that the Bears were able to beat Detroit.  So terrible spot for Chicago, coming off huge home win over Minnesota, now with a 1.5 game lead in division, we think they struggle here and Detroit gets the win.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON San Diego -4 over Colorado, Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET on ESPNU

This is a huge prime time game for USD on a stage they normally don’t get.  This is a home game vs a Pac 12 team and the game is on ESPNU.  Those factors alone should bring a top notch effort and performance from the Toreros.  That is obviously not the only reason we like San Diego here.  First of all they are a very experienced team with 3 seniors and 1 junior in the starting lineup.  All 4 were key performers on last year’s 20 win team.  The Toreros are the 6th most experienced team in the nation so not only the starters but all rotation players as well have been together for a number of years.  They come into this game with a 3-1 record and their only loss coming by just 3 points @ Washington, who was picked by some to win the Pac 12 this year and no worse than 3rd in that league by most experts.  It was a game that San Diego led by 9 in the second half when leading scorer Isaiah Pineiro (20 PPG) got into foul trouble and had to sit out 10+ minutes giving the Huskies an opportunity to make a run.  While USD is playing their 5th game of the season, Colorado has only played twice this year vs weak competition.  Their most recent game they were favored by 17 vs Nebraska Omaha at home and struggled to win by just 4 points.  The Buffs are on the road for the first time this year and they have not been a money maker away from home going just 18-40-1 ATS their last 59 road games.  They were just 1-10 SU in true road games last season.  The Buffs also must replace 3 of their top 6 scorers from a year ago.  San Diego beat Colorado on the road last year 69-59 and basically bring back the same team so we expect a similar outcome tonight.

ASA play on: #517 Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 @ Sacramento Kings, 10:00 PM ET - We like the situation, the number and everything else that goes into for a play on the Thunder tonight. The Sacramento Kings are one of the four to five worst teams in the NBA and not much better than Phoenix. The reason we bring that up is the fact that the Thunder just played in Phoenix and were favored by -5 points. The Kings also recently faced Minnesota at home and were a +2-point underdog and the Thunder are better than the dysfunctional T’Wolves. The big advantage the Thunder have here is defensively. OKC is the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA while the Kings are 21st worst. The Thunder also hold an advantage when it come to offensive efficiency. After losing four straight games to start the season, the Thunder have quietly won 10 of their last eleven games. They also have the 6th best margin of victory in the NBA at plus +5.4PPG. Conversely, the Kings are 8-8 SU on the season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. Yes, the Thunder have the Warriors on deck but they won’t look past a Kings team that embarrassed them earlier this season 131-120. With or without Westbrook we take the road team here by double-digits.

ASA play on: #516 Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:00 PM ET - We like Memphis, a mid-tier Western Conference team over the lower-tier Mavericks. The line on this game has been impacted by the four game winning streak of Dallas but we like the overall value with Memphis minus the points. Dallas is just 1-6 SU on the road this year with the lone ‘W’ coming in Chicago, who is one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Mavs have the 8th worst road point differential in the league at -7.6PPG. They have the 4th worst road offensive efficiency rating and are around league average in DEFF. Memphis is 6-1 SU at home this year with an average point differential of +7.9PPG (11th), the 4th best DEFF and 15th in OEFF when playing on their own floor. Neither team has an advantage scheduling wise as the Grizz played yesterday which is a negative but the Mavs are off a huge upset win over Golden State the day before. Memphis is similar to the Jazz, Spurs and Lakers who were all 7+ point home chalks over Dallas recently. Lay the points.  

ASA play on: #589 SE Missouri State +6 over South Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - South Alabama is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation so far this season.  If you throw out their game vs Huntingdon (don’t ask) they are shooting just 32% from the field and averaging only 59 PPG.  They rank 347th out of 351 teams in offensive efficiency.  They are 2-2 on the year with their only wins coming against Huntingdon and Chattanooga (ranked 329th nationally).  They were just beaten 71-48 at home vs Jacksonville.  Their opponent tonight, SE Missouri State, played that same Jacksonville team last Friday on this court (Mobile, AL – South Alabama’s home court) and beat them 77-71.  SEMO controlled the boards in that game (+13) while South Alabama was outrebounded by 13 against that same Jacksonville team. After losing to Saint Louis & Bradley to start the season, the Redhawks have some momentum entering tonight winning 3 straight.  They are a solid defensive team ranking 58th nationally in eFG% defense and 7th nationally in 3 point FG% defense.  That will be a problem for the Jaguars who, as we told you, can’t shoot.  In this one we get the better defensive team and better rebounding team getting points.  We’ll take it.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +2.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

The Bears have turned things around in Chicago and have the local fan base excited for the first time in years. The Vikings were the team to beat in the NFC North this year but got off to a rocky 1-2-1 start to the season so everyone wrote them off. But now the Vikings have righted the Ship so to speak with a 4-1 SU run their last five games. The only loss in that stretch was to the Saints who are the best team in football right now. In the loss to the Saints though the Vikings out-played, out-gained the Saints by over 150 total yards but two huge turnovers turned the tide in that game. On the road this season the Vikings have just one loss at the LA Rams and a tie in Green Bay. Chicago is a public team right now and the line reflects it. They have won three straight games but look who they’ve beaten. Detroit, Buffalo and the Jets who have a combined 9-20 SU record on the season and might be the three worst teams in the NFL. These teams have nearly identical offensive yards per play numbers and overall statistics but the Vikings have played a tougher schedule to this point. Consider this, the Bears were favored by 3-points at home in late September against Tampa Bay and now are laying the same in a huge NFC North showdown against a much better Minnesota team. Last year here the Vikings were favored by -3.5 points. Easy call with the Dog!

#353 ASA 9* play on Cincinnati (+) over Central Florida, 8PM ET - We have patiently waited for the right spot to fade UCF and the day is here. Based on the strength of schedule these two teams are much closer than you might think but UCF is living on last year’s reputation and a 22-game winning streak. That has forced the oddsmakers to over-adjust the Knights number here. UCF has been out-gained in 3 of their last four games yet went 4-0 SU. Cincinnati has out-gained every opponent but two this season and in those two games they were minus -6-yards and minus -2-yards. Central Florida has a total 36-minute time of possession deficit in their last four games combined and their big play ability will be nullified by a Bearcat defense that allows just 4.2 yards per play which is 5th best in college football. UCF relies on a running game that averages 5.0YPC but Cincinnati gives up just 3.1YPC (14th). Both teams recently played Navy on their home fields and the statistics drastically favor Cincinnati’s results. The Bearcats out-gained Navy by 280 total yards and held the potent Midshipmen rushing attack to just 124 yards and 2.4YPC. That’s quite the defensive statement considering Navy is 3rd in the nation in rushing at 274YPG. Cincinnati beat Navy 42-0. Last week UCF beat Navy 35-24 but the Midshipmen held an 11-minute TOP advantage, rushed for 375 yards at a 6.0YPC average. UCF did put up 300 yards rushing themselves but that was against a Navy defense that is 95th in the country in stopping the run so we’re not impressed. This is clearly a huge game for both teams but Central Florida is carrying the weight of this unbeaten streak and the pressure continues to mount. UCF has an average margin of victory of +23PPG but Cincinnati has a MOV of +20.1PPG and cover the spread by an average of nearly 11PPG. We won’t be surprised when the Bearcats win this game outright on the road. Grab the points!

#326 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Purdue (-) over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They are playing their final home game and need this win to become bowl eligible (currently a 5-5 record). If they don’t get this game they have to go on the road next week to arch rival Indiana and try to get a win in order to qualify for the post-season. Purdue has been up one week, down the next for a full month now. They throttled Ohio State 49-20 here then followed that up with a stinker @ Michigan State the next week. They came back home after that loss and beat a very good Iowa team and then got creamed @ Minnesota. Now back at home after that embarrassing performance (their worst of the season) we would look for a very good game out of the Boilers. This team has beaten 3 straight ranked teams at home (BC, Ohio State, and Iowa) and now they face a Wisconsin team that is absolutely trending downward. The Badgers are already bowl eligible, they are coming off a huge game @ Penn State (a 22-10 loss), and they have their biggest rivalry game vs Minnesota next Saturday. We expect back up QB Jack Coan to be under center again this week although that has not been finalized and probably won’t be until gametime. Starter Alex Hornibrook is in concussion protocol and didn’t play last Saturday after suffering his 2nd concussion in 3 weeks vs Rutgers. We anticipate the UW coaching staff to be ultra conservative with Hornibrook moving forward due to his 2 concussions and the fact they are bowl eligible but out of the Big Ten West race. If either play, we still like Purdue. Coan simply doesn’t have enough experience and they have been very conservative offensively because of that. Even down 12 in the fourth quarter last week the play calling was not wide open to say the least. In the two games that Coan has started the Badgers have scored 17 & 10 points. He has thrown for 158 yards and 60 yards in those two games. That makes the offense one-dimensional and the Purdue defense will load the box to stop the run. It’s a Purdue defense that was gashed on the ground by Minnesota last week in their letdown spot but had been playing quite well vs the run leading into that game. If you take out last week’s debacle @ Minnesota, the Boilermaker rush defense is allowing 132 YPG in league play which would be good for 4th best. The weak spot of Purdue’s defense is their pass defense allowing 278 YPG however Wisconsin is not a team that will be able to take advantage of that. The Badger defense is WAY down compared to previous years. They are very young on the back end and their top run stuffer, Olive Sagapolo, is out. After allowing less than 100 YPG rushing in each of the last 3 season, the Badger stop unit is giving up 175 YPG on the ground this season. Purdue’s offense is balanced and potent and they put points on the board (4th in the Big Ten averaging 32 PPG – conference games). They look even more impressive when playing at home as they’ve scored 37, 30, 49, and 38 points their last 4 at Ross Ade Stadium. The Wisconsin defense isn’t playing well enough to stop Purdue and their offense isn’t playing well enough to keep up. Add in the motivation factors discussed above and Purdue rolls in this one.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Seattle -3 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

This is a REALLY tough spot for the Packers.  It’s their third road game in the last four week and long travel on a short week.  Not only have they been on the road a lot as of late, it’s been long travel.  They went to the west coast vs Rams, then east coast vs Patriots the next week, then home vs Miami, how west coast against on a short week.  That is as tough a schedule as you could map out.  Seattle is at home where they are playing just their 4th game this season.  They are 1-2 here at home but their losses were both close vs Rams and Chargers, two of the best teams in the NFL.  Seattle played toe to toe with the Rams on the road last week losing 36-31.  Seattle ran for 273 yards vs the Rams and LOST!  Speaking of that we expect Seattle to dominate the rushing game tonight as they lead the league in rushing at 152 YPG while GB allows 121 YPG (22nd in NFL).  That should open things up for Russell Wilson and the passing game.  Wilson has had a fantastic year completing 66% of his passes for an average of 7.96 yards per pass and 21 TD’s.  It could be argued Wilson is having a better year than Aaron Rodgers who’s completing just 60% of his passes for 7.32 yards per pass and 17 TD’s.  On the road, where GB is 0-4, Rodgers has completed under 60% of his passes with a QB rating of 98 (Wilson has rating of 110 this season).  Because of the short week travel situation, road teams can struggle on Thursday nights.  They are just 2-8 SU this year.  GB is in an even more drastic travel spot because of previous weeks.  Seattle has a solid defense and should be able to move the ball very well as discussed above.  The Pack will hang around for awhile but we like Seattle to wear them down and win this one by a TD or more. 

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Loyola Chicago -16 over Niagara, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET

Great spot here for Loyola.  The Ramblers, as you probably remember, made a great run to the final 4 last season.  They finished the season 32-6 and they return 4 of their top 6 players from that team, including PG Clayton Custer who was the talk of the tourney last year.  In their season opener they crushed UMKC 76-45.  That UMKC team was rated 262nd in the Ken Pom efficiency ratings at the time of the game.  Tonight’s opponent, Niagara is rated 253rd so very similar teams as far as we are concerned.  What makes this a great spot it Loyola played very poorly in their 2nd game of the season and they were upset 60-58 by Furman.  The Ramblers blew a 13 point second half lead and they were just 3 of 20 from deep (15%) in that tight loss.  You can expect them to come out with some fire tonight as they’ve had 5 full days to let that loss stew.  This is a team that has a shut down defense allowing opponents to shoot just 34% and just 52 PPG after 2 games.  It isn’t a fluke as this team gave up just 62 PPG last season.  Niagara is playing just their 2nd game of the season tonight which comes after they upset St Bonnies at home 80-72 just 2 nights ago (Monday).  The Purple Eagles shot just 43% and allowed 47% in that game but benefitted 19 made FT’s to just 2 for St Bonnies (+17 at the FT line).  We look for them to struggle from the field again tonight but they an advantage at the stripe vs a Loyola team that doesn’t foul much.  Take Loyola Chicago.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Seattle +10 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Rams continue to be overvalued in our opinion.  They are coming off a loss @ New Orleans last week and laying a huge number here vs a solid Seattle team.  The Rams have played back to back huge games nearly losing at home to Green Bay two weeks ago (29-27 win) and then losing 45-35 @ New Orleans last week.  On top of coming off back to back emotional games, this LA team is playing for the 10th consecutive week.  They have not yet had a bye.  Seattle had a bye two weeks ago so they are not doubt the fresher team.  LA has 8 wins but only 3 of those have come by 12 points or more and those were against 3 of the worst teams in the NFL (Arizona, Oakland, and San Francisco).  This number sits right around 10 points and only one of the Rams last five wins have come by more than 10.  These two already faced off and Seattle took them to the wire losing 33-31.  The Seahawks rushed for 190 yards in that game and we have no doubt they’ll be able to take advantage again of a tired LA defense that allows 4.7 YPC (24th in the NFL).  Rams have NEVER been favored by 10 or more vs Seahawks – Rams have only been favored by a TD or more twice vs Seattle (-7 & -8.5) and Seattle covered both.  This is the largest dog role of Russell Wilson’s career and Seattle has been great in this role with a 27-11-2 ATS record their last 40 as a dog.  The Seahawks are a solid defense (7th in the NFL), off a loss (25-17 to Chargers), playing a team they already nearly beat.  Too many points here as we side with Seattle.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -10 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

This is an absolute must win for the Packers.  They now sit with a 3-4-1 record after losses @ Rams and @ Patriots.  They take the road again the next two weeks going to Seattle and Minnesota so a loss here might just end their playoff hopes.  The last two weeks Green Bay played quite well on the road vs two of the best teams & best offenses in the NFL.  They lost @ Rams 29-27 and @ Pats 31-17.  The New England game was closer than the final as GB actually had the ball deep in Patriot territory with the game tied at 17-17 when an Aaron Jones fumble changed the entire game.  Now after facing two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, we look for the Packer defense to play much better against an anemic Miami offense.  The Fins rank 28th in the NFL in total offense averaging only 315 YPG.  Last week in their 13-6 win at home vs the Jets, the Dolphins tallied only 168 TOTAL yards and just 7 first downs.  They did not score an offensive TD.  With journeyman back up Brock Osweiler still under center we think they’ll struggle again this week vs a Packer defense that is under rated in our opinion.  The rank middle of the pack in most key categories which is better than most would think.  Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense, sack percentage, and sacks per game.  Prior to last week’s game vs the hapless Jets offense, this Dolphin defense had allowed 38, 27, 28, 32, and 42 points their previous 5 games.  The Fins are 5-4 but have a negative point differential and have been outgained 7 of their last 8 games.  All of Miami’s wins have come by a single score while their losses have come by 10, 11, 19, and 31 points.  Miami has been a terrible road team winning just 1 of their last 9 road games with losses coming by 40, 31, 24, 19, 18, 16, 10, and 8 points.  The high temp in Green Bay Sunday will be in the low 30’s which is not ideal for a warm weather team.  We think the Packers roll over Miami on Sunday winning by 2+ TD’s. 

ASA 8* PLAY ON Oakland +10.5 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Raiders are coming off an embarrassing performance in their most recent game losing 34-3 to San Francisco.  It was easily their worst game of the season.  That game was on Thursday so they’ve had 10 days to recoup and we expect a solid effort on Sunday vs an AFC West rival.  We really like the line value here.  These two met already this year and the Chargers were favored by 5 at home in that game (a 26-10 Charger win).  Now they are laying double digits on the road!  This is a rarity as the Bolts have been a double digit favorite @ Oakland only ONCE since 1990 and that was a Raider cover.   LA is off a huge road win @ Seattle and they have a big home game on deck vs rival Denver.  Now we realize this is a division game but it’s a team they’ve already beaten and LA might be a bit flat here.  Raiders have covered the last 4 as a home dog vs Chargers.  Double digit road favorites are 3-0 ATS in the NFL this year (Bears @ Bills / Rams @ Niners / Pats @ Bills) – however long term double digit road favorites are 73-102-1 ATS (41%).  We’ve got a feeling this one will be close.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +7.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH

Bears won @ hapless Buffalo last week 41-9 and a simple glance at the score did not tell the whole story.  Chicago had 190 TOTAL yards!  That’s it.  They scored 41 points with less than 200 yards of total offense.  Two defensive TD’s by Chicago in that game and 4 Buffalo turnovers made the difference.  The Bills actually outgained Chicago by 75 yards.  Detroit comes in a bit desperate after losing 24-9 @ Minnesota last week.  The Vikings were extra motivated in that one after outplaying the Saints on the stat sheet a week earlier but still losing at home.  The Detroit defense played well holding Minnesota to just 285 total yards and a defensive TD by the Vikes made this one look worse than it was.  This has been a tight series with 10 of the last 12 meetings decided by single digits.  The Lions have actually won 9 of the last 10 meetings and this is the first time Chicago has been favored in this series since 2012.  Detroit is 3-5 on the season however their 3 wins (Packers, Patriots, Dolphins) have all come against teams that beat Chicago this year.  On the flip side the Bears are 5-3 but 4 of their wins have come against the lower end of the NFL (Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets, Tampa).  Their lone solid win was @ home vs Seattle but that was way back in mid September.  Detroit was +4.5 @ Minnesota last week and now they’re getting a full TD @ Chicago?  Matt Stafford is getting a full TD from Mitch Trubisky?  We’ll take it.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #215

Notre Dame QB Ian Book is now listed as OUT for this match-up. This is a BIG loss for the Fighting Irish as he was the starter over Brandon Winbush for good reason! The fact is that Winbush has great running ability but he struggles as a passer and is known for making costly mistakes. That sets this one up very well for a big play on the large underdog. Florida State has a solid rushing defense and has allowed just 2.6 yards per game and 102.6 yards per game on the ground their last 6 games! That said, Notre Dame's offense could really struggle to move the ball in this game. The Seminoles have, of course, had a very disappointing season but that makes this a fantastic opportunity for them that will bring out the best in a roster that is still loaded with plenty of talent. Florida State still needs two more wins for bowl eligibility and this match-up at Notre Dame is just one of three remaining games. While an outright upset may be asking a lot, the Seminoles are absolutely relishing the idea of a chance to end the unbeaten season that Notre Dame has enjoyed to this point. These teams, in their recent meetings, have a knack for playing tight games decided by a single score and that is what our math model is forecasting for this game as well. Florida State has won the last 3 meetings. Although FSU is off an ugly loss at NC State, the Noles actually won the yardage battle in that game so the final score was deceiving. Notre Dame is 1-8 ATS in home games where they are favored by more than 7 points! This certainly has not been a good role for them and the Fighting Irish are already 0-3 in that role this season as they did not come anywhere close to covering versus Ball State, Vanderbilt, and Pittsburgh in this role this season! The Seminoles are 9-2 ATS (and 11-1 SU) in their last dozen non-conference games! Notre Dame is 1-7 ATS in November games the past two seasons! We expect those late season struggles at the betting window to continue here for the Fighting Irish. Grab the points with Florida State as an undervalued big road underdog Saturday evening.

ASA 9* PLAY ON Michigan State (+) over Ohio State, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #220 - We obviously follow the Big Ten as close as anyone and something is definitely off with this OSU team. We’ve heard rumblings that there are cohesion problems in the locker room and it’s showing up on the field. This team is nowhere near as good as recent OSU teams and their 8-1 record is masking some problems. Three weeks ago the Buckeyes were blasted by 29 points @ Purdue. They had a bye coming off that loss leading into last week’s home game vs Nebraska and if they were ever going to bounce back and destroy someone it was last week. They didn’t. In fact a 2-win Nebraska team actually led at half and took OSU to the wire at the Horseshoe. While they did run the ball pretty well against a terrible Husker defense the Buckeyes have had trouble running the ball for most of the season. They will continue those struggles again this week versus a Michigan State defense that ranks #1 nationally allowing just 77 YPG on the ground. It’s been no better on the defensive side of the ball for the Bucks. They are allowing 402 YPG this season which is a full 100 yards worse than a year ago. They have allowed 26 points or more 6 times already this year. Last year they allowed 26+ only 3 times all season. MSU got starting QB Lewerke back off an injury in last week’s 24-3 win @ Maryland. They are playing very well winning 3 of their last 4 including wins over Penn State & Purdue. Their lone loss over the last month was a 21-7 setback vs Michigan which doesn’t look all that bad based on how the Wolverines are destroying everyone else. The host has a big edge defensively and their offense has started to look much better over the last month. Last week they ran for 269 yards vs Maryland and if they can run the ball here and take some pressure off Lewerke their offense will do very well here vs a struggling OSU defense that has allowed 80 point and almost 1,000 yards in their last 2 games alone. The underdog has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and we’ll call for the Spartans to win this game outright at home.

ASA 9* PLAY ON Florida (-) over South Carolina, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #194 - After 4 straight wins in SEC action, Florida has now last back to back games. Not only is this week's game versus South Carolina a revenge game for the Gators, it is also their final SEC game of the season. In other words, there is little doubt that Florida is looking to come out strong here after losing their annual showdown with Georgia and then falling short versus Missouri last week. Gators head coach Dan Mullen was previously at Mississippi State from 2010 to 2017. When the Bulldogs entered a game off 2 or more consecutive SU losses, Mullen coached them to an 11-4 SU record and 10-4 ATS! In other words, look for Mullen to have his team ready to respond here! The Gamecocks enters this game off an upset win. Coincidentally, that upset win was at Mullen's old employer in Mississippi State. Though South Carolina's offense impressed, the Gamecocks were outgained by over 100 yards as their defense struggled badly. Also, this is coach Will Muschamp's third season with the Gamecocks. This is the first time this season they've won back to back games and, in Muschamp's tenure at South Carolina, when the Gamecocks are on a winning streak of 2 or more games and on the road, they've lost both times and each defeat came by a margin of at least 13 points. South Carolina is also a long-term 2-11 ATS in road games with a total set in a range of 52.5 and 56 points. Per all of the above, you can see why we’re calling for the Gators to win this one by double digits in a home blowout.

ASA 9* PLAY ON Navy (+) over Central Florida, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #135 - The Knights entered last week in a battle with two teams in the AAC East Division. Those two teams were Temple and Cincinnati. With that being said, this is a classic trap game this week for UCF. The Knights defeated Temple last week but were out-gained in the game plus allowed a ridiculous 670 yards. That was a key win for Central Florida and now next week's game is even bigger as they host Cincinnati! The point is that Navy (with a 2-7 record) is unlikely to have the full attention of the Knights here and that could certainly prove to be dangerous. The Midshipmen are a long-term 16-4 ATS as a road dog of 21.5 points or more. This has plenty to do with their style of play as it makes it difficult for teams to truly blow them out. Navy's offense is a ground-based attack and teams that run the ball well are able to control the clock in games and also keep the ball out of the opponents hands. That is the game plan again here of course and, though UCF is clearly the better team, the Knights are also clearly in a bad scheduling spot and will have a lot of trouble getting this margin above the two TD mark. Despite the large difference in records between these teams they are statistically equal except for the Knights passing attack on offense. That is an edge UCF has but it is not enough of an edge for this type of overlay on a game and this is particularly true when one considers that Navy has played the tougher schedule this season too! Despite last week's ugly loss at Cincinnati, the Midshipmen are still an incredible 13-4 ATS the last 17 times they have faced a team with a winning percentage above .800 that is off a SU win. Of course that system fits again here for Navy this week against undefeated UCF. Though the Knights have extra rest here, Central Florida is actually a poor 3-6 ATS when playing with 8 days of rest between games and the look ahead factor here is a huge one for the Knights. We’ll call for the Midshipmen to stay well within the big number in this one.

ASA 9* PLAY ON Boise State (+) over Fresno State, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - It’s not often we get a chance to take Boise at home as an underdog. In fact, the last time the Broncos were getting points at home was 17 years ago back in 2001. That’s a span of 111 straight home games as a favorite until tonight. This is a team that has the best home field advantage in America. Since September of 2001 the Broncos have a 105-6 record at home! Fresno has won and covered 7 in a row and now they come in overvalued. The Bulldog defense has phenomenal numbers allowing just 12 PPG. While they are good, they aren’t that good. That’s because they haven’t played a single offense ranked in the top 40 in total offense this season! Zero. The three best offenses they’ve played (Minnesota, Hawaii, and Toledo) have all put up 20 or more on this defense. Boise will be the best offense they’ve faced this season by far coming in ranked 20th in total offense averaging 468 YPG on 6.3 YPP. Boise’s QB Rypien has been in many big games in his successful career as he has thrown for almost 13,000 yards and 84 TD’s. We’ll take him at home in a game of this magnitude. FSU’s offensive stats sit in a similar situation. They rank 43rd nationally in total offense however they should be better than that based on the defenses they have faced this season. They’ve only played one team ranked higher than 76th in total defense and 5 of their 9 opponents rank 100th or lower in total defense. This Boise team will be easily the best team Fresno has faced this year. The Bulldogs have not played a close game since their 21-14 loss @ Minnesota and the Gophs have shown they are one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. How will they react in a tight game which this one is destined to be? Not as well as the home team that expect to win every game at home. Boise was favored by 6.5 @ Fresno last year. They were also favored by 10 in the 2nd meeting of the year which was the MWC Championship game. Now they are getting points at home? Bad line in our mind and we like Boise to pull the upset on Friday night.

Play on: #708 Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET – Yes, we love and respect what the Bucks have done this year and feel they are a legitimate contender in the East BUT only Boston (because of their depth) has the slightest chance to beat Golden State this year in the Finals. Milwaukee has gotten off to a great start but recently have lost their last two road games at Boston and at Portland.  They had played a pretty soft schedule prior to that with road wins over Charlotte and Minnesota. Golden State is well, Golden State and this is a statement game for them at home against the upstart Bucks and Giannis. The Warriors are incredibly deep and won’t miss a beat without Draymond Green tonight. GST has the 2nd best home differential in the NBA this year at +15.5PPG which is slightly higher than their last four year average of +13.4PPG. Let’s consider these numbers. The Warriors were favored by -11.5 and -12.5 in two home games of the Finals last year against the Cavs. Last regular season they were favored by -4 points against this same Bucks team and were resting Curry and Thompson! In regular season games last season against the three other best teams in the East the Warriors were 11-point chalks against Boston, -12.5 versus Toronto and -13.5 against Philly. The value on this is just too good to pass up. Play the Warriors who are 11-4 ATS at home when favored by 6 or less points since 2014. 

ASA PLAY ON 9* Toledo Rockets (+) over Northern Illinois Huskies, Wednesday at 8 PM ET: Game #105

When Toledo is a road dog of less than 6 points in a conference game and facing a team with a winning record, they've gone 10-1 ATS their last 11. The most recent occurrence was at Western Michigan two weeks ago. The Rockets were very close to the point-spread range they are in for this game and Toledo beat the Broncos 51-24. Northern Illinois is 2-7 ATS their last 9 home games when facing a team with a winning percentage of .401 or greater. The Huskies are off a big win last week at Akron but previous to that game Northern Illinois was averaging just 17 points per game this season. The Huskies do have a very strong defense but their offense has struggled for nearly the entire season and ranks as one of the worst in the nation. This will spell trouble as they try to match scores with a Rockets offense that is certainly a strength. Toledo has been on a roll in recent games with back to back wins and averaging 48 points per game game. Look for QB Eli Peters, filling in for the injured Mitchell Guadagni, to continue to get the job done for the Rockets as he has been impressive thus far. Per the above situational ATS edges, this is a 17-3 (85%) spot in favor of Toledo. We'll grab the undervalued road dog in this Wednesday evening match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Kent State Golden Flashes (+) over Buffalo Bulls, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #101

We were waiting on the weather report for this one and now feel very comfortable with grabbing the big points in this one. This game is being played in upstate New York in Amherst which is just slightly north of Buffalo. Of course Buffalo is known for bad weather from time to time and, in this case, strong winds are whipping up right off the shores of Lake Erie and into the Buffalo area. A high wind warning has been issued and continues into the overnight hours. The point is that there is not expected to be any significant letup by the time this game kicks off at 7:30 ET. In fact, the winds may be at their peak at that time. The reason this is so significant is that it is hard for a team to run up the score when a teams passing game and kicking game is limited due to winds. The Bulls are the better team as you can tell from the huge line here but they're going to be forced to rely on their ground game and try to grind out a win. Also, Kent State has impressed us in terms of playing hard for their new coach this season. The Golden Flashes will not lay down here and they will play hard for the full sixty minutes. As a result of the above (including the weather element), this game is likely to be much closer than many expect. We'll grab the undervalued big road dog in this Tuesday early evening match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over Houston, Sunday at 4:00 PMET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Hmmm?  We have a Houston team that has won 5 straight games vs a Denver team that has lost 4 of their last 5 yet the Broncos are favored.  Denver is coming off a 30-23 loss last week @ KC but they outplayed the red hot Chiefs in that game.  The Broncos outgained the Chiefs by 70+ yards in the game and outrushed them 189 to 49.  They’ve played KC to the wire twice this year losing by 4 and 7 points.  Denver is 3-5 on the year but 4 of those losses came to KC (twice), LA Rams, and @ Baltimore.  The Broncos are much better than their record and are now backed into a corner in a must win spot at home.  Houston is on a nice run but their wins have come against Miami, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Dallas and Indy with two of those games going to OT.   The home team should  have a big edge in the trenches here as Houston’s offensive line rates as one of the worst in the NFL (23rd in efficiency by Football Outsiders).  They will be facing a Denver defensive front that averages 3 sacks per game (5th in the NFL) with a sack percentage of 8% (also 5th in the NFL).  That will be a problem for a banged up Deshaun Watson who’s already been hit more than any other QB in the league.  By contrast, Denver’s offensive line ranks 4th in the NFL in efficiency and #1 in the league in run blocking.  That’s a good reason why the Broncos average 134 YPG on the ground.  The Broncos have played the MUCH tougher schedule to date (6th most difficult compared to Houston’s 32nd ranked strength of schedule) and despite their records (Denver is 3-5 & Houston is 5-3) we feel the Broncos are the better team, in a must win spot, and at home.  Football Outsiders efficiency ratings agree with us as they have Denver ranked as the 7th best team in the NFL and Houston ranked 12th.  Lay the small number with Denver. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Tampa Bay +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH

We expect Tampa to play much better now that they’ve decided on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting QB.  Why they went away from him when Jameis Winston came back in a mystery to us.  Fitzpatrick has his teammates trust and confidence and he just happens to be the highest rated QB in the league at 119.3.  Yes higher than Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Goff.  Now we’re not saying Fitzpatrick is better than those signal callers but he is having a very good season.  Last week he entered the game late @ Cincinnati late in the 3rd quarter with his team down 34-16.  He rallied the Bucs to a 34-34 tie but lost on a last second FG.  The team looked rejuvenated with him under center and we expect them to play very well this weekend.   Carolina is off a 36-21 home win over Baltimore.  They played very well but were an underdog in that game.  Now they are laying nearly a full TD and we simply don’t trust Cam Newton in this role.  This has been a tightly contested series with 3 of the last 4 meetings decided by a FG or less.  The dog has covered 4 straight in this NFC South battle and 3 of Tampa’s 4 losses have come by 5 points or fewer.  The Bucs are better than their 3-4 record as they are actually outgaining their opponents by 52 YPG (Carolina is just +15 YPG on the season).  With Fitzpatrick back at the helm, this team will score points.  We don’t see the Panthers being able to pull away in this game and we give the Bucs a solid shot at the upset.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Missouri Tigers (+) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #337

Missouri's overall 4-4 record on the season, on the surface if you will, does not impress. However, two of their losses have come by 2 points and 1 point. This Tigers team is very close to being a 6-2 team and certainly holds the edge in terms of overall offensive productivity when comparing Missouri with Florida. Also, the Gators may not have a lot left in the tank after going toe to toe with Georgia last week. The Bulldogs have a way of pounding teams that leaves them battered and bruised the next week and Florida was outgained by nearly 150 yards in that 19 point loss last week. The Gators are 1-6 ATS their last 7 in their game following Georgia. Once again, look for Florida (very disappointed by last week's loss) to fall flat here the week after facing the Bulldogs. The Tigers are fired up after a tight one point loss to Kentucky that was a controversial finish. Missouri allowed just 15 points in that loss and here's an interesting stat for you: the Tigers are 7-0 SU the last 7 times they've been off a game where they held their opponent to 21 points or less. Look for that stat to hold true again here this week as there is most definitely strong potential for a road upset here so we're grabbing the points in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:45 PM ET: Game #406

The Wolverines are out for revenge in a big way at The Big House Saturday! Heading into last year's match-up in Happy Valley at Penn State, Michigan had rolled to 3 straight wins (and 3-0 ATS) in their last 3 meetings with the Nittany Lions. Then, inexplicably last season, the Wolverines got rolled by 4 TD's in last season's match-up. The set up for this season's rematch is perfect for Michigan. Big Blue is off their bye week and they have lowly Rutgers up next. In other words, full focus and attention is on Penn State here. When you look at points allowed this season the Nittany Lions 22.2 points allowed doesn't look too bad in comparison with Michigan's 14.4 points allowed per game. However, there is a huge difference between the level of play on defense in comparing these two teams. The Wolverines have allowed an average of 220 yards per game on the season! That ranks Michigan as the #1 defense in the nation! As for Penn State, they've allowed an average of 424.4 yards per game their last 5 games. This stretch included losses to Ohio State and Michigan State as well as unimpressive (and somewhat fortunate) wins over Indiana and Iowa. Penn State, simply put, is "on the fade" right now and Michigan is on an entirely different level. The Wolverines have won 7 straight games and they've already begun their "revenge season" as they look to get payback for every single Big Ten loss from last season. The Wolverines already beat Wisconsin and Michigan State by an average margin of 19.5 points per game. Now they get revenge against Penn State and then part four of the "revenge season" beckons them in the regular season finale at Ohio State. As a home favorite in Big Ten games, Michigan is already 3-0 ATS this season. Penn State is an ugly 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorley was roughed up by the Hawkeyes last week and in the 2nd half was wearing a bulky knee brace. He is not going to have any fun this week either, whether 100% or not, as he goes up against the #1 defense in the nation. Look for a home blowout revenge win in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #324

We really like this spot for the Boilers. Over the last month, we’ve been watching both of these teams very closely. We’ve felt that Iowa was overrated. They had won 3 straight games heading into last week’s loss @ Penn State. Their wins during that stretch came against Minnesota, Indiana, and Maryland. Their game prior to that run they lost by 11 points at home to a Wisconsin team that simply isn’t at the level they’ve been the past few years. Last week they lost @ PSU 30-24. A Nittany Lion team that is also down this year having lost 2 of their prior 3 games with their only win during that stretch coming @ Indiana despite getting outgained by nearly 140 yards. The Hawks were fairly fortunate last week as they scored on 2 safeties and a pick 6. Thus nearly half of their points vs the Lions were scored by the defense. Even with that they still lost. So Iowa has beat up on bad teams and lost to 2 marginal teams over their last 5 games. On top of that, last week’s game was huge for the Hawkeyes. It was a statement type game for them as they went on the road against a national name team hoping to pick up a good win. Off that loss we expect a bit of a letdown from them on the road for the 2nd straight week. Speaking of the road, Iowa has been away from home a lot as of late. This will be their 4th road game in the last 5 weeks. Not ideal for the Hawkeyes. Purdue has been underrated in our mind. We took them a few weeks ago as a big underdog vs Ohio State and the Boilers dominated that game on their way to a 49-20 win. With head coach Jeff Brohm still building the program, it wasn’t a surprise they laid an egg last week @ Michigan State coming off their OSU win. After losing their first 3 games by a combined 9 points, this Purdue team has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss being last week’s clunker @ MSU. The offense has been playing great scoring 30+ points in 5 of their last 6 including topping 40 points 3 times. Now back at home we expect a great game out of the Boilermakers and we’ll lay this small number. Look for a blowout home win for the Boilermakers in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at Noon ET: Game #334

Nebraska enters this game off an easy win versus an FCS team so they actually were able to rest starters in that one after half-time. However, though the Cornhuskers will be somewhat rested here, the Buckeyes are not only fully rested (off bye week) but also very angry after their loss to Purdue two weeks ago. Keep in mind, the Boilermakers have a very potent offense this season and Ohio State found that out first-hand in the loss at Purdue. Though the Boilermakers piled up 539 yards in that game, the Buckeyes actually outgained them! With that said, the 29 points margin of defeat was certainly quite deceiving. In any event, the fact now is that this Ohio State team has had extra time to build up their aggression in terms of a huge response in this game. Keep in mind the Buckeyes defense had allowed an average of just 17 points per game over a 6-game stretch that preceded the loss at Purdue. Also, Ohio State is 4-0 ATS in their 4 meetings with Nebraska that have come since the Cornhuskers moved into the Big Ten. In fact, the last 3 Buckeyes wins over Nebraska have come by an average margin of 42 points per game! Nebraska is allowing 200 rushing yards per game in Big Ten action this season and the Buckeyes are going to respond after a very rare horrible effort on the ground versus Purdue. This is the Buckeyes only home game over a period of 5 weeks so you know they are looking to make the most of it. On the Big Ten road, the Huskers lost games to Michigan and Wisconsin by an average margin of 31.5 points per game and we fully expect this one to be decided in the 30 point range as well! Look for a blowout home win for the deservedly heavy-favorite Buckeyes in this early Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Colorado Buffaloes (+) over Arizona Wildcats, Friday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #319

The Buffaloes have now lost 3 straight after a 5-0 start to the season. While road losses at USC and Washington were not unexpected, the home loss to Oregon State last week certainly was. Colorado actually led that game 31-3 before allowing the Beavers to outscore them 31-3 the rest of the way! Oregon State then won the game in overtime. This type of result (blowing a 28 point lead at home) is going to bring out a huge effort from the Buffaloes here. Consider it "lesson learned" for Colorado and the Buffaloes are now catching the Wildcats at the perfect time to get a road win. Arizona is off a huge upset over Oregon as a home dog of more than a TD! The Wildcats have won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and that includes an upset of the Buffaloes at Boulder last year. That said, now it is payback time and it is Colorado's turn for revenge after the Wildcats got their big revenging win (versus the Ducks) last week. Basically Arizona played the "perfect game" last week and it is often after games like those that teams fall very flat in their next game. As for the Buffaloes, there is no way they'll be flat after last week's result versus the Beavers. In terms of technical support here, there is plenty as the Wildcats are 2-6 ATS when at home and facing a team playing with revenge. Colorado is 9-1 ATS when on the road and playing with revenge. The visitor is also 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these teams! Additionally, the Buffaloes are a perfect 5-0 ATS when off an ATS loss by a double digit margin! We'll grab the undervalued road team in this Friday late night match-up.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Oakland +3 over San Francisco, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

Two 1-win teams go at it on Thursday night in a game that will most likely be a TV dud.  San Fran is coming off a loss @ Arizona in a game they blew a 15-3 fourth quarter lead.  That was a telling loss as Arizona’s offense is atrocious ranking near the bottom of the NFL in most key categories.  The fact they were able to come from behind late vs this 49er defense is bad news.  They “held” the Cards to 18 points which is actually 4 more points than their average so nothing special there.  Leading into that game the Niner defense had allowed 28 or more points in 5 straight.  Oakland is fairly healthy here and should put up decent offensive numbers tonight.  We can’t say the same for San Fran’s offense.  They have been struggling scoring 10, 15, and 18 points in 3 of their last 4 games.  They are facing a bad Oakland defense but we think they struggle again as their QB situation is not ideal.  Starter CJ Beathard is not 100% and may not even play in this game.  He injured his hand last week and as of Tuesday was not even able to grip a football.  He practiced lightly on Wednesday but is 50/50 at best for tonight.  If he goes he will be limited.  If he doesn’t go it will be Nick Mullens at QB and he has never taken a snap in an NFL regular season game.  While Oakland QB Derek Carr has had his problems at times this year, the Raiders have a big edge at QB tonight.  While it’s a road game on Thursday night which usually favors the home team due to travel situation, that won’t be the case tonight as the Raiders make the 12 mile bus trip to San Fran.  The Raiders should be well rested as they had their bye two weeks ago while SF is playing for the 9th consecutive week.  After blowing their lead and the cover last week @ Arizona, the 49ers are now 1-12 ATS their last 13 as a favorite.  We’ll side with the lessor of two evils getting points tonight. 

ASA Play on: #503 LA Clippers + over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - We like the spot to play on the Clippers here based on line value and matchups. Let's talk numbers first. The Clippers most recent road game saw them +3 at OKC. The Clippers were plus only 3-points at OKC who is nearly identical to the 76ers in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings.  A few games earlier the Clippers were +5.5 (same as tonight's line) in New Orleans who is a contender in the West. Now L.A. is catching that same number against a Sixers team that isn't living up to their preseason hype. L.A. is 12th in offensive efficiency ratings, 8th defensively. Philly is 22nd in OEFF, 10th DEFF. These two teams have similar records at 4-3 (L.A.) and 4-4 (PHI) but yet the Clippers have a positive differential of +5.3PPG while the 76ers are negative at -1PPG. The Clippers have a big capable of slowing Embiid and two defensive guards in Bradley and Beverley to contain Simmons. The Clippers have played the tougher schedule yet have better statistics than a Philly team yet to play up to their expectations. Easy buy sign with L.A. tonight.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Kent State Golden Flashes (+) over Bowling Green Falcons, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #303

Both of these teams are having tough seasons but Bowling Green has already endured a coaching change (have an interim as head coach was fired a couple weeks ago) and certainly the Falcons appear to be the lesser team at this point in the season. While both teams have struggled on defense, the Golden Flashes have allowed 27.3 points per game their last 3 games while Bowling Green has allowed at least 35 points in every game this season. In fact, the Falcons are allowing an average of 47.8 points per game on the year! Bowling Green is 1-6 ATS as a home fave of 3 or less points. Kent State is 4-2 ATS in games played on turf this season and 2 of the Golden Flashes last 3 losses have come by just a single point. While Kent State has been on the verge of victory twice in their three most recent games, the Falcons have been outscored by an average of 22.2 points per game this season and their slimmest margin of defeat has been 7 points. We'll grab the undervalued road team in this Tuesday evening match-up.

ASA 10* PLAY ON San Francisco -1 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR

We thought the Niners might be in trouble when starting QB Garopollo went down.  They’ve actually played pretty well with CJ Beathard at QB.  He’s thrown for over 1,000 yards and 7 TD’s in his 4 starts.  Three of those starts were against the Chargers, Packers, and Rams so a tough schedule to say the least.  They held 4th quarter leads in their games @ Chargers and @ Packers but were unable to hold on vs those prolific offenses.  Beathard’s only other other start was against this Cardinal team.  Arizona upset San Fran 28-18 in that game a few weeks ago but the Niner absolutely dominated the stats.  In that game the 49ers were +227 yards, +23 first downs, and had a 40:00 to 20:00 minute time of possession edge and lost by 10!  That’s because they had 5 turnovers in the game while Arizona had zippo.  San Fran has been waiting for this rematch and we don’t see any way the Cards can keep up offensively.  We anticipate San Francisco putting up big numbers again (this time on the scoreboard as well) vs an Arizona defense that ranks dead last in the NFL vs the run and has allowed 72 points in their last 2 games.  Meanwhile the Cardinal offense has been putrid.  The rank last in the NFL in most key offensive categories and they have only topped 17 points once this entire year.  They have also not gained more than 268 yards in any game this season.  They are getting outgained by an average of 162 YPG on the season.  That’s bad folks.  While San Fran is playing hard and playing pretty well vs top notch competition as of late, the Cardinals seem to be in a bit of disarray.  They fired their offensive coordinator this week and their top DB wants to be traded.  We see things coming apart at the seams a bit for this team.  The Niners are well coached under Kyle Shanahan and his players respect him.  We think they roll into Arizona and pick up an easy in on Sunday.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -7.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH

Situationally this game sets up really well for Pittsburgh.  The Steelers look like they are hitting their stride after struggling early in the season.  They scored 69 combined points their most recent 2 games beating Atlanta & Cincinnati.  They also dominated those games on the stat sheet.  They are coming off a bye and surely are ready to put a beat down on a Cleveland team they tied 21-21 to open the season.  In that game the Steelers were the much better team outgaining the Browns 472 to 327 but SIX turnovers did them in.  Even with a +5 turnover differential in the game, Cleveland wasn’t able to win.  Unlike the Steelers who are off a bye, Cleveland is playing their 2nd of back to back road games.  They are also playing for the 8th consecutive week and FOUR of their previous 7 have gone into overtime meaning they’ve logged the equivalent of almost a full extra game in those 8 weeks.  They look like they are running out of gas to us.  They played at Tampa Bay last week and while they lost in OT, the Bucs dominated the game outgaining Cleveland by 150 yards.  Tampa turned the ball over 4 times to just 1 for Cleveland.  Again, even with the big turnover advantage, the Browns were not able to win the game.  The offense continues to struggle as they’ve topped 21 points only twice the entire season vs Tampa Bay (28th in total defense) and Oakland (26th in total defense).  The Cleveland defense looked good early in the season but as we stated, they look like they are running out of gas allowing 45, 38, and 26 points in 3 of their last 4 games.  Pitt coach Tomlin has been very good as a big favorite with a 21-12 ATS record when laying more than a TD.  The Browns have now lost 24 straight road games and we think this one sets up as a potential Pittsburgh thumping.  Lay it. 

ASA 8* PLAY ON Denver +10 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

These two met just a few weeks ago and Denver led that game 23-13 midway through the 4th quarter.  The Chiefs scored on their final 2 possessions of the game to pick up a 27-23 win.  The Broncos defense is the only team to hold this vaunted KC offense under 30 points and now that they are getting a 2nd look at the Chiefs we have a feeling their defense will play well again.  Denver ran very well on this Chiefs defense in the first meeting (160 yards) and we expect them to again as KC allows 5.2 YPC (30th in the NFL).  The Broncos want to control the ball and shorten the game with their 8th rated rush offense.  That will make it tough for KC to cover this double digit number.  KC is a perfect 7-0 ATS this year and the numbers are now getting pushed too high because of that.  The Chiefs have NEVER been favored by double digits vs their AFC West rival Denver.  Double digit division underdogs have historically been money makers (58% since 2003) and we expect this one to be decided by less than 10 points.  Denver is the play.

ASA 8* PLAY ON NY Giants +1.5 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Many want nothing to do with the 1-6 Giants but we think this is a great spot for them to pick up a win.  New York is off a 23-20 loss @ Atlanta in a game the Giants actually outgained the potent Falcons offense.  In fact, the Giants have outgained their last 3 opponents and are only getting outgained by an average of 7 YPG on the season.  Five of their six losses have come by a TD or less and this team is getting close to picking up a win in our opinion.  We think it comes this Sunday.  Washington is off huge back to back home wins, both of which went to the wire.  They knocked off Carolina & Dallas and the Skins were home underdogs to both.  Now they are favored on the road after those upset wins.  This is only their third road game of the season as they won in the season opener @ Arizona and were destroyed @ New Orleans.  The home team won both games last year and the Redskins are in a spot they are not used to being in.  They have been favored @ NY just TWICE since 1996 and they lost both of those games outright.  Washington has only won 9 of their last 34 games @ the Giants and they are just 11-21-2 ATS in those games.  We’re buying low (Giants) and selling high (Redskins) in this one.  We’ll be in the minority but we like the Giants to get a win here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #180

Oklahoma State is a disappointing 4-3 on the season but they have a chance to put all of that behind them on Saturday night as the face 6th rated Texas in prime time on Saturday night. It’s homecoming and the Cowboys are honoring the great RB Barry Sanders who will be in the house. Okie State used their bye week to get healthy and focus on some of the basics after losing 3 of their last 4 games. We’re told they’ve had two great weeks of practice heading into this game and should be at their best. OSU is off a bad performance @ KSU two weeks ago losing 31-12 as an 8-point favorite. A week before that they lost at home to a very good Iowa State team in a game that went down to the wire. They had plenty of motivation heading into their bye and we expect them to play very well at home Saturday night. Texas is a bit overrated in our opinion. They’re decent but not great. Not a top 10 type team in our opinion. They have played 7 games this season (6-1 record) and 5 of those games have been one score games. The Horns have not played a true road game in nearly a month and have played only 2 all season, losing @ Maryland and winning @ KSU 19-14 scoring on a punt return and a safety in that game. They have also had a week off but we wouldn’t be surprised if the players are a bit full of themselves so to speak after a 6 game winning streak and their high ranking which has been a long time coming for Texas. They have a huge game at home on deck vs West Virginia as well so facing this struggling OSU team might not bring their peak effort. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger will play here but has a bad throwing shoulder so the playbook might be limited for the Horns. UT has covered only once as a favorite this year and they are 1-6 ATS in that role dating back to last season. OSU’s last home win was a shellacking of a very good Boise State game 44-21 back in September. They have struggled since but we have a feeling this is a circle the wagons game for them coming off a bye and expect a supreme effort. This becomes a huge game for their bowl eligibility with 3 of their final 4 games coming on the road. OSU has controlled this series as of late winning 4 of the last 5 so they will have plenty of confidence coming into this one. Take Oklahoma State at home.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Washington State Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #162

The Cardinal lost last year at Washington State but there is more to this revenge situation than just that. The Cougars went down to Stanford and blasted the Cardinal 42-16 two years ago. That embarrassing home loss is one that deserves payback and this is the perfect spot for it. The Cougars are an amazing 7-0 ATS this season so they are becoming a popular choice with bettors right now. We all know what happens when a team becomes too popular as it is then that the value erodes away. In this case the Cardinal are now down to a 2.5 point choice as of mid-day Friday and this is a Stanford team that is 21-4 SU the last 25 times they've been favored. Also, when the Cardinal are involved in a game where their line range is between +3 and -3, they are 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS. The Cougars are a long-term 2-5 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less. In games played on grass, which tends to slow down Mike Leach's offense, Washington State is 2-4 ATS with one of the few such covers being the game at Stanford two years ago. Again, payback time. Although Cardinal RB Bryce Love is questionable for this game he certainly has not had a big season and the sum production of the two running backs who have filled in for him when has not been available is very nearly equal to Love's production on the season. In other words, the Love injury status is merely serving to give even more value here as it is also helping to keep this line low. On the season, Stanford has played a tougher schedule and, even with that, the Cardinals are allowing just 20.7 points per game while the Cougars are allowing 23.3 points per game. This is a huge game in the PAC-12 North as both teams have just one loss like Washington does. Next week Stanford is at Washington and so the Cardinal know that they control their own destiny. Fulfilling their immediate goal of finishing at the top of the PAC-12 North begins here with a big revenging home win over a Cougars team that is simply over-rated at this point in time. The only road wins that the Cougars have this season were at Wyoming and Oregon State. Those teams entered this week with a combined record of 3-12 this season. This is the toughest challenge Washington State has had since their road loss at USC and our math model forecast says they are losing on the road again here. Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday evening PAC-12 match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Cougars (-) over South Florida Bulls, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #184

When an opening line makes you scratch your head, you know you're onto something! The point in this exact instance is that the Cougars were as large as a 9 point favorite when lines first came out for this one even though it is South Florida that is undefeated on the season and it is the Bulls that are the ranked team! Of course the underdog has attracted some attention here as a result but this is certainly no "mistake" by the odds maker. The fact is that Houston has faced a tougher schedule in comparison with South Florida and the Bulls continue to be overvalued by the betting markets. That is evident by the fact that USF is on a 1-4 ATS skid. Also note that Houston has won 3 straight meetings with the Bulls plus the Cougars are looking to take advantage of their only home game in a 4-week span while South Florida could be a bit "gassed" as USF is playing their 3rd road game in the past 4 weeks. The Bulls certainly were unimpressive last week as they barely got by one of the worst teams in FBS (Connecticut) and that game was at South Florida! When USF is a dog of more than 5 points and playing with revenge the Bulls are 2-8 ATS their last 10. Look for a home blowout in this Saturday afternoon AAC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Georgia Bulldogs (-) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #167

Both teams are off a bye week entering this week's annual neutral site game between these SEC foes. The difference for these teams is what happened in the prior week. Prior to their bye the Gators won and have now won 5 straight games while the Bulldogs lost and that ended Georgia's 6-game win streak. That means you're going to see a huge effort from Georgia this week. Yes, Florida has revenge from a bad loss to the Bulldogs last year but the difference will again prove to be the ground game. The Bulldogs had a rare "off" performance versus LSU as the Tigers ran all over them. Prior to that game Georgia had allowed an average of just 113 rushing yards per game on the season. Florida entered their win over Vandy (before the bye) having allowed 172.5 rushing yards per game this season. Just like last year, look for the Bulldogs to again win the battle in the trenches. The Gators are on a 3-8 ATS run as an underdog. Georgia is 6-1 ATS in games played on a neutral field and the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS when off a loss in SEC action. Look for a rout win for the favored Bulldogs in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #111

The Yellow Jackets have won each of the last two meetings between these teams and we look for the streak to reach 3-0 on Thursday evening. The underdog has not only covered the last 5, they've actually won the game outright each of the last five meetings. In fact, the underdog has covered in 12 of the last 13 meetings between the Hokies and the Jackets. Both teams are coming off a bye but the concern with Virginia Tech is a suspect defense. The Hokies were fortunate to beat North Carolina prior to their bye week as Virginia Tech allowed over 500 yards in that game and was outgained by nearly 150 yards by a Tar Heels team that is truly not a very good football team this season. Look for Georgia Tech (352 rushing yards per game) to control this one on the ground and that gives the road dog Yellow Jackets the edge in this one. We'll grab the available points as we do expect a road upset in this Thursday early evening match-up.

ASA Play: Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Orlando Magic, 7PM ET - At first glance you might not be sure about laying points with the visitor here but it makes sense. Orlando was 25th in home scoring differential in 2017-18 at -4.6PPG so we're not afraid of laying points with the Blazers on the road here. We like the situation as the Blazers are off an OT loss at home to the Wizards, while the Magic are off a big upset win in Boston. Did the Magic beat the C's or did the Celtics beat themselves? The Celtics shot horrendously from beyond the arc at 22% with 40 3-point attempts. Orlando opened the season with a home win over the Heat but were then blown out on their home court by Charlotte, 88-120. This will be Portland's first road game so they should be focused off that loss and with 2 days rest. The Magic were 25th in offensive efficiency last season and 19th defensively. The Blazers had the 9th best DEFF ratings in the league last season and were 15th offensively. Last year as a -4.5 point favorite the Blazers won by 7 on this same court. At home against the Magic the Blazers won by 5. The Magic struggle to shoot the basketball at just 41.5% on the season which is 27th in the NBA. Portland doesn't have that problem with the dynamic guard duo of McCollum and Lillard. 

ASA play on: Washington Wizards +5 over @Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - This is an interesting number as the Blazers were just -3 points against the Lakers who are essentially even with Washington who is now getting 5-points? The Wizards have lost two games to playoff teams from a year ago, Toronto and Miami,  by a combined 5 total points. Now they go on the road to face a Portland team off TWO huge home wins over the Lakers and Spurs. Washington has the guards in Wall and Beal to match Portland's strength with Lillard and McCollum. The Wiz were 20-21 SU on the road last year with an average differential of -2.1PPG which was slightly below league average. Portland was 28-13 SU at home a year ago with an average differential of +4.6PPG. The visitor covered both meetings last year and based on the line move and money we like the road team again. Play on Washington Wizards.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -2.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

This line is fluctuating between -2.5 points and -3 points but the majority are still at 2.5  Either way we like the Ravens to get it done at home over the Saints. If you haven’t seen them play yet, it’s worth the time to watch this Ravens defense as it’s dominating. Baltimore beat Tennessee last week 21-0 allowing just 7 first downs and 106 total yards in the game. The Ravens defense has been lights out allowing 14, 14, 9, and 0 points the last 4 gms in regulation. The Saints defense gave up 48 points in opener (to TB) but seem to have righted the ship allowing 19 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games but they’ve played the Browns (24th in scoring), Giants (27th) and Washington (25th). Baltimore is off 3 straight road games and should be happy to be home where they’ve won by 44 and 13 points already this season. Ravens outscoring opponents 62-12 in second half (regulation) of their 6 games this year, thus they are allowing less than a FG average in 2nd half. Baltimore #1 defense allowing 270 YPG (306 is 2nd) also #1 allowing 4.4 yards per play (4.9 is 2nd). We like the Ravens pass defense which is 2nd in the NFL allowing just 188 passing yards per game on the season versus the Saint’s 3rd ranked passing O. Let’s not forget about a Ravens offense that is 9th in the league in yards per game overall and 9th in passing. Baltimore 5-1 SU their last six at home, Saints just 2-4 SU their last six away.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina +5 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We are not a fan of laying points with the Panthers but do like them getting points in this matchup with the Eagles. An interesting game within a game will be the rushing attack of the Panthers versus the Eagles rush defense. It’s literally Strength on strength with Carolina 4th in the NFL in rushing at 139 YPG and Philly #2 at stopping the run allowing 79 YPG. But hold that thought. Are the Eagles really that good at stopping the run? We don’t think so as the Eagles 79 YPG rush defense numbers are a bit skewed as they’ve played the following rush offenses (22nd, 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th, and 31st). The metrics tell us against an average team the Eagles will give up an average of 105RYPG so a good team like Carolina should do more damage on the ground than that. Overall the Eagles defense has given up over 375 yards in 4 of five games this year and over 397 three times. The Panthers have held 2 of the five teams they’ve faced to under 300 total yards of offense. Since their inception in 1995 Carolina is 59-42-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 3 pts and QB Cam Newton is 19-8 ATS as an underdog off a SU loss. Based on strength of schedule and the statistics that account for opponents played, we like Carolina here and the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (+) over Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #334

This is a very dangerous game for the Buckeyes. They simply aren’t playing very well right now while Purdue is playing lights out. OSU wins aren’t looking quite as impressive as we may have originally thought. They came from double digits down to beat TCU which looked great at the time. TCU has since gone on to lose 2 of their next 3 games with their only win coming at home vs Iowa State by just 3 points. The Buckeyes were completely outplayed at PSU (outgained by 100+ yards) and pulled out a 1-point win late. The following week they struggled to pull away from a poor Indiana team a few weeks ago leading by just 8 at half. They pulled away late but it wasn’t an overly impressive performance. Last week they were 30 point favorites vs a Minnesota team that is very young starting a freshman at QB and RB. It was a 9-point game midway through the fourth quarter and the Bucks won by 30-14. Again, not impressive. They are struggling to run the ball averaging 3.2 YPC or less in all 3 of their Big Ten games. Purdue is definitely better than their 3-3 record. They were winless their first 3 games but those losses came by a total of 8 points. They have since won 3 straight games with all 3 coming by at least 13 points. The offense for Purdue is performing at a high level as they’ve averaged 39 PPG over their last 4 games. QB David Blough has been lights out completing 68% of his passes for almost 400 YPG over their last 4 contests. Defensively the Boilers held Illinois, who had rushed for 200+ in every game this year, to just 69 yards on the ground last week. Now facing an OSU team that has struggled to run the ball we think they can make the Buckeyes fairly one-dimensional in this game. Purude has now covered 4 straight games by a combined 64 points. They are undervalued right now. It’s a rare, huge home game at night for them and we think OSU should be put on upset alert in this one. Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Kentucky Wildcats (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #312

When a team is rolling they do not necessarily want a bye but when off a loss it can be a welcome chance to regroup and then come out flying immediately in their very next game. This is precisely what we expect from Kentucky here. The Wildcats were 5-0 on the season but then two weeks ago the Cats faced Texas A & M and lost by 6 as it was clearly Kentucky's worst game of the season. Even with the defeat the Wildcats are allowing just 13.8 points per game on the year. The Cats defense has been rock solid this season while the Commodores come into this game having allowed 35.5 points per game their past 4 games. Vanderbilt's defense has allowed more yardage in their last 4 games than Kentucky's D has allowed this entire season - 6 games! The Commodores are allowing an average of 510.8 yards per game their last 4 games. The Wildcats are giving up just 304.8 yards per game on the year. From a situational perspective, it doesn't get much better than this. Kentucky is off a bye week which followed their very first loss of the season while Vandy has lost 4 of its last 5 games and the only win was by just 4 points against an FCS school. The Commodores were favored by 4 touchdowns in that game and yet won by only 4 points! Vanderbilt is playing their 8th straight week while Kentucky is rested. Also, Vandy is on a 1-10 ATS run against SEC foes as they continue to prove to be outclassed against conference opposition. The Wildcats should dominate the ground game here again versus the Commodores. That was a key in last years win by a 23 point margin for Kentucky and that was on the road! The Wildcats have outgained Vanderbilt 490-201 in rushing yardage the past two meetings. Per our math model forecast, the hungry home favorite to control this one from start to finish as the Cats defense continues to dominate while Vandy's porous D continues to be burned by big plays. Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Temple Owls (-) over Cincinnati Bearcats, Saturday at Noon ET: Game #314

Cincinnati is a ranked team and the Bearcats are 6-0 SU on the season. Of course this begs the question how can they be an underdog against a 4-3 Temple team? The answer to that is that nothing is ever as easy as it seems on the surface! The fact is that the odds makers are projecting the Cats to suffer their first loss of the season and we are too! Temple has played the tougher schedule in comparison with Cincinnati. Also, the Bearcats lose some momentum with the bye week last week. A team usually doesn't benefit from a bye when they were already rolling in the first place. What a bye usually does in a case like this is actually let some air out of the tires and the team all of the sudden loses their timing (in terms of execution) and suddenly is no longer on a roll. This is the first time this season that the Bearcats will face a team that has a winning record at the time of the match-up. That is certainly noteworthy as Cincinnati went 2-7 ATS (and 0-9 SU!) the past two seasons when facing a team with a winning record! The Owls continue to be a covering machine and that includes going 17-3 ATS (15-5 SU) in their last 20 games versus American Athletic Conference opponents. The Owls have allowed just 108 passing yards per game their past 5 games. Temple won each of the last two meetings versus Cincinnati by an average margin of 15 points per game. Our math model is forecasting another rout win in this match-up! Look for a home blowout in this very early Saturday afternoon AAC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Air Force Falcons (-) over UNLV Rebels, Friday at 10 PM ET: Game #309

Even though Falcons QB Donald Hammond III got hurt in the most recent game, the Air Force offense moved the ball just fine with Isaiah Sanders at the helm. Just about any offense in College Football can move the ball well against this porous UNLV defense. The Rebels have allowed an average of 54.5 points per game their past two games and that is bad news for UNLV fans because their offense is having major issues without QB Armani Rogers. The Rebels are on a 1-8 ATS run as a home dog and get blasted again here. Air Force has allowed an average of just 14 points per game their past two games while the Rebels have allowed over 500 yards each of their past two games. Complete mismatch especially with the ground game (Rogers was leading rusher for UNLV). Look for the Falcons to get the cash here. We'll lay the points as we expect a road rout in this Friday late night match-up.

ASA NBA play on: #506 Portland Trailblazers - over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET - What does it tell you that the LA-Bron led Lakers, who have a HUGE media following and public affection are a 3-point dog here? Los Angeles money and tickets have steadily flowed in on the Lakers yet the line on this game has moved from the Blazers being a -2.5-point favorite to a -3-point chalk. After doing this for 30+ years I've learned it's better to be on the Sharps side than the Squares. Portland won 49 games last year in the regular season and had the 9th best overall point differential in the NBA at +2.1PPG. The Blazers home differential was +4.1PPG was 11th best in the league. Portland was 8th in defensive efficiency ratings, 16th in offensive efficiency and had the 4th best rebounding rate in the NBA. Rebounding will play a huge part in this outcome as the Lakers, who were the 2nd best rebounding team in the league last year, lost Randle, Lopez and Nance Jr who combined for 18.4 rebounds per game. Sure the Lakers added LeBron James but they also lost Julius Randle who averaged 16.1PPG, 8RPG and 2.6APG last season. Randle just put up 25 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Pelicans last night in just 24 minutes so don't think for a second he won't be missed. Yes, LBJ will more than make up for those numbers but again it's going to take time for this rebuilt roster to jell. Portland returns everyone from last year's roster and will be anxious for this national TV game at home where they are 118-57 SU since 2014 with an average MOV of 5PPG. Portland has beaten the Lakers 15 straight and will make it 16 tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON 9* Arizona State Sun Devils (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #306

Stanford has allowed an average of 36.3 points per game their last 3 games. Arizona State is allowing an average of 21.2 points per game on the season and the Sun Devils have not allowed more than 28 points in a game this season. The Sun Devils ground game on offense is averaging 175.2 rushing yards per game this season and that is more than double the 85.7 rushing yards per game that the Cardinal are averaging. We love taking home dogs that have a great shot at the edge in the all-important departments of defense as well as the ground game! Stanford is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Weeks Five through Nine of a season. Arizona State is on a 12-4 ATS run in home games and also 7-3 ATS when off a loss against a conference rival. Look for the Sun Devils to get the cash here. We'll grab the points for added insurance but we expect a home upset in this Thursday night match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals) vs Detroit Red Wings, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET

On April 21, 2016 the Lightning won game 5 of a first round playoff series with the Red Wings to take the series 4 games to 1. Ever since that game these teams have met 8 times the past two seasons and, of course, Detroit has had revenge on their minds in every single game but they have lost every time. The fact is that the once-mighty Red Wings just might be the worst team in the league now while Tampa Bay just might be the best team in the league. Certainly the Bolts are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and the amazing thing is that they are so deep in terms of their scoring. The Lightning don't even have to have their biggest stars off to hot starts to be able to have put forth a strong start to this season. That said, Tampa Bay is actually "scary good" right now for opponents while the Red Wings are truly "scary bad". Detroit is winless in their 6 games this season and also winless in their last 10 meetings with the Lightning. Tampa Bay will NOT let up here as they have a 5-game road trip on deck. This is the final home game for the Bolts until October 30th so they want to make this one count in a big way! Tampa's last two wins have come by a combined score of 12-4 while the Red Wings last 3 losses have come by a combined score of 20-8. With that said, we love the value with the Lightning on the Puck Line in this one. Of course on the money line the Bolts are about a 3 to 1 favorite here. However, on the puck line, we get them at a pick'em price by laying the 1.5 goals and our math model forecast is a win by a 3 goal margin in this game. The Lightning are the better team in all phases all over the ice and that shows in a big way on Thursday as the Bolts make it 11 straight wins over the Red Wings with a blowout home win. Bet Tampa Bay on the puck line (-1.5 goals) in evening action Thursday.

ASANBA pick - Play on the Utah Jazz -8.5 over Sacramento Kings, 9PM CT - We don't have a problem laying this number on the road with a Jazz team that was 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency last year allowing just 1.016 points per possession. Sacramento on the other hand were one of the worst defensive teams in the league allowing 1.090 points per possession. Utah returns essentially their entire team as do the Kings who added the 2nd overall pick in Marvin Bagley III. The problem with Bagley is that he couldn't play defense in college which is why Duke was forced to play zone last year. Utah was one of just 6 teams in the NBA last year to have a positive differential on the road, while the Kings had a negative average differential of -5.3PPG, second worst number in the NBA. Utah swept the Kings last year 3-0 and have won five in a row in the series. Utah has also covered 15 of their last 23 road contests. After watching the Kings a few times in the preseason it was very apparent how bad their defense is going to be again in 2018. We'll lay the points with Utah and predict a double digit win.

ASA 10* PLAY ON New England -3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

We view this as a game the Pats will want to make a statement.  Many have now said that KC is the team to beat in the AFC which is the title that has been held by the Pats for multiple years.  Do you think Belichick & Brady will want to squash that sentiment in this game?  Add to that this is a revenge game from the season opener last year and you can pretty much guarantee they want to make a statement here.  New England has had extra time to get ready for this huge home match up after beating the Colts 38-24 on Thursday night.  While we believe the Chiefs are a very solid team, we also feel they have been very fortunate to date.  They’ve been outgained in 4 of their 5 games (-300 yards on the season) and they have the worst defense in the NFL allowing 462 YPG (ranking 31st in pass defense & 24th in rush defense).  To be 5-0 in that situation means they’ve absolutely gotten some fortunate breaks.  Last week they beat a very good Jacksonville team 30-14 but were handed the win by the Jags who turned the ball over 5 times including throwing 2 picks in the endzone, another at the 1-yard line, and also throwing a pick 6.  The Jags made 5 official trips inside KC’s 20 yard line and came away with a grand total of 7 points on those possessions.  QB Patrick Mahomes came back to earth throwing 2 picks and 0 TD’s.  We’re positive Belichick will have a very solid defensive gameplan for Mahomes in this one.  The Patriots offense is peaking right now scoring 38 points in each of their last 2 games, they have WR Julian Edelman back in the line up, and Tom Brady should have a field day vs the 31st rank pass defense.  We simply don’t see the Patriots in this price range at home very often as they’ve been a favorite of less than 4 points only 4 times since 2010 (3-1 ATS).  They are also a fantastic 18-3 ATS at home as a favorite of less than a TD since December of 2010.  KC is playing their 4th road game already this season and this is a very dangerous spot for them.  The Pats are 93-15 SU at home since December of 2006 and with this number sitting as low as it is, the value is definitely with the Patriots.  Lay the small number with New England.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Rams finally had to leave the state of California last week and they almost got clipped for the first time this year.  They came from behind in the 4th quarter to beat Seattle 33-31.  IT was just their 2nd road game this season with their first being @ Oakland to open the season.  Now LA is on the road for the 2nd straight week and in altitude.  They should be catching the Broncos in an ornery mood after playing a terrible game on the road last week @ NY Jets.  The Denver defense gave up an uncharacteristic 323 yards on the GROUND to the Jets, the most by a Bronco defense since 2010.  They obviously were not physically or mentally ready for that game and we expect a huge bounce back on Sunday.  While they have struggled on the road winning just 1 of their last 12 games, Denver is a different animal at home.  They are 2-1 here this year with their only loss coming 27-23 to 5-0 Kansas City, a game that Denver led 23-13 midway through the 4th quarter.  They were +3 to +3.5 in that game vs an undefeated KC team and now they are getting a full TD here vs a comparable team.  You almost never see Denver as that type of dog at home as this is just the 4th time since 1980 they’ve been a home dog of +7 or more.  The Rams looked unbeatable early in the season vs Oakland and Arizona but those wins now don’t look quite as impressive as those teams have a combined record of just 2-8.  After their first two games vs weak competition, their defense has not looked very good giving up 23, 31, and 31 points their last 3.  Their run defense has really struggled allowing 5 YPC which is 29th in the NFL.  That’s a problem here vs a Denver rushing attack that ranks #1 in the NFL averaging 5.6 YPC.  This sets up as a dangerous game for the Rams and we’ll grab the generous points with the home team here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +2 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Big mismatch at the QB position here with Luck vs Darnold.  The much better and more experienced QB is getting points which is always worth a look.  People are overreacting to the Jets crushing the Broncos last week.  It wasn’t a huge surprise as Denver has been a terrible road team under head coach Vance Joseph now losing 11 of their last 12 games away from home.  Darnold had to do very little in that game (completed just 10 passes) as the Jets ran for a ridiculous 323 yards.  It’s not as if the Jets were some terrific running team as they were averaging just 88 YPG on the ground coming into last week’s game.  Now they face an Indy defense that is allowing only 4 YPC which is 10th best in the NFL.  NY won’t run wild this week and Darnold will have more pressure to make plays on Sunday.  Let’s also not forget that the Jets had lost 3 straight games (scoring just 41 combined points in those 3 games) heading into their impressive win vs Denver.  The Colts have had 10 days to rest up and prepare for this game after losing @ New England on Thursday night.  Indy desperately needs a win here as they come in off three straight losses.  Two were down to the wire, tight games @ Philadelphia (lost 20-16) and vs Houston (lost 37-34 in OT).  The Colts have outgained 3 of their 5 opponents and their defense is actually quite solid.  They are very good at getting to the QB (3rd in sacks per game and 6th in sack percentage) so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Darnold is rushed in to a few mistakes in this game.  Andrew Luck is a great 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS the game following a SU & ATS loss.  He is rolling right now as well throwing for over 800 yards and 7 TD’s his last 2 games.  We like the Colts to win this game outright on Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC Trojans (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #156

With the Buffaloes at 5-0 on the season, ranked in the top 25, and catching significant points here; of course that is attracting attention within the betting markets as the unranked Trojans are only 3-2 on the season. The key though is in strength of schedule. USC has played a much tougher schedule than Colorado has and the result is superb line value here. The Trojans losses were road losses at Stanford and Texas. The Buffaloes have yet to lose a game but their "toughest" games (based on the lines in those contests) were at Nebraska and versus Arizona State. That is certainly noteworthy as Nebraska is now 0-5 on the season and the Sun Devils have lost 3 of their last 4 games. That said, a game at Southern Cal against a quality Trojans team is certainly a much tougher challenge than hosting ASU and visiting the Huskers (having such an awful season). Also note that the Buffaloes were outgained at Nebraska by a margin of 565 to 395 yards! In other words, Colorado was fortunate to get the win. The Buffs opened the season with a neutral site game against Colorado State and, therefore, this game at USC is just the 2nd true road game for Colorado this season. Considering the Buffaloes, in their first road game of the season, were outgained by 170 yards by a team that is now 0-5 on the season, the Buffs are likely to struggle with the talent level of this Trojans team! Southern Cal is off back to back wins and a bye week. With that said, the Trojans enter this game both rested and confident as they look to make it 3 straight wins in PAC-12 action. USC has won each of the last 7 meetings between these teams (they've met annually since the 2011 season) and the average margin of victory has been 19.4 points per win! Colorado is 1-8 ATS when they are a dog of less than 17 points and playing the first of back to back road games (Buffaloes are at Washington State next week). Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday late night PAC-12 match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* LSU Tigers (+) over Georgia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET Game #198: Many will be set to jump off LSU’s bandwagon after they picked up their first loss of the season last week @ Florida. That result has helped the value here pushing this number above a TD. Last week’s game @ Florida showed a near even stand off on the stat sheet with Florida scoring on an interception return with under 2:00 minutes remaining to salt away the 27-19 win. LSU has been a home dog just 6 times since 2010 and they’ve won half of those games (3) outright. Georgia is a bit overvalued in our opinion. They are undefeated but have yet to be challenged. Their schedule thus far has been fairly weak as this will be by far their toughest test of the season. The Bulldogs have played just 2 road games this year and their most recent one @ Mizzou was a 14 point win with 2 non-offensive TD’s fueling that win in a game that was nearly dead even on the stat sheet. Another key point is UGA has yet to be in a stressful, close game situation due to their fairly easy schedule and we expect them to have some serious adversity for the first time this season in this game. Georgia has never been higher than a 1-point favorite @ LSU and now they are being asked to lay more than a TD. We like LSU to bounce back and play very well this week. We give them a decent shot at the upset so we’ll grab the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Baylor Bears (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #187

Perfect spot to fade the Longhorns as they are off of their huge win in their annual rivalry game with Oklahoma last week. Texas expended a ton of energy in securing the victory as the Horns blew a huge lead against the Sooners. Couple that with the fact that Baylor is out for revenge this season (embarrassed 38-7 in Waco last year) and you can see that the set up here is a great one. The Bears are highly motivated while the Longhorns certainly could come out flat as they have won 5 straight games and might get caught looking ahead to their bye. While Baylor also has a bye on deck there is no way they're looking past the Horns after what happened in last season's 31 point home loss. This is a large line given the situation as well as the fact that the Bears, should they need it, also certainly have "backdoor cover" potential here as their offense is averaging 500 yards per game this season. However, we don't expect this game to come down to needing a backdoor cover as our computer math model forecast has the Bears hanging close throughout this game and actually having a shot at the outright upset. The Longhorns are only 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've been a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Also, Texas is an ugly 1-10 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points and are facing a team playing with revenge. That system fits perfectly here and we have no doubt about the type of effort the Bears are going to bring in this one! Look for the big road dog to stay well within the number in this Saturday afternoon BIG 12 match-up.

ASA 9* Arizona Wildcats (+) over Utah Utes, Friday at 10:00 PM ET - The Utes are off of a big upset win at Stanford last week. Utah also has USC on deck. From a situational perspective, this game certainly sets up as a flat spot for the Utes. Also, Arizona has revenge from losing each of the last two meetings including last season's game which the Wildcats lost at home. The Cats are getting about two touchdowns in this spot and the big dog is offering significant line value. After dropping their first two games this season, Arizona is 3-1 SU and ATS their last 4 games. Even though Utah won last week at Stanford they were outgained in that game. Also, last season's match-up between these teams saw the Utes get outgained by over 100 yards by the Wildcats in a game that had a deceiving final score. We look for Arizona to improve to 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Cats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games with a total set between 49.5 and 52 points. Utah is 1-3 ATS this season in games played on turf. Bet ARIZONA

ASA 9* Arkansas State (+) over Appalachian State, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a case where perception doesn't meet reality. Yes Appalachian State is 5-0 on the season but they've played a much weaker schedule than Arkansas State has. Now, on the road, and in a primetime rare national TV game for Arkansas State at home, the Red Wolves are going to be amped up. Getting double digits at home in a situation like this is a great value and the Red Wolves are 7-0-1 ATS in October games. Also, Arkansas State is 3-1 ATS the last 4 times they've been a dog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. All 3 of those wins were outright upset wins. The Red Wolves pass defense has been great except for when they played Alabama and who stops the Crimson Tide? That said, we feel the Mountaineers are going to struggle to get any type of significant margin in this Tuesday night road game against the Red Wolves. Play ARKANSAS STATE

ASA PLAY ON 9* Anaheim Ducks Puck Line (-1.5 goals) vs Detroit Red Wings, Monday at 10:05 PM ET

The Red Wings are very banged up on the blue line. A number of defensemen are out for Detroit. That is going to make this back to back spot even tougher for the Wings as they battled the Kings last night and lost. Detroit is now 0-2 on the season while Anaheim is a perfect 2-0 on the season. Of course the money line is up in the 2 to 1 range and that is why we're grabbing the value with the puck line. By laying the 1.5 goals with the Ducks were are able to get a solid plus money return on Anaheim. The Ducks have won their two games by a combined score of 6 to 2 as goalie John Gibson is off to a stellar start this season. Anaheim won their last home game versus Detroit by 2 goals and another big home win is likely here. Non only are the Ducks catching the Red Wings in a back to back, Anaheim had two days off after the first game and the Ducks were off yesterday too and they are off tomorrow. Full focus here for Anaheim. The Ducks have won 36 of their last 51 home games with a total set at 5.5 goals. The Red Wings have lost 47 of 67 when off a game where they allowed 4 or more goals. Bet Anaheim on the puck line (-1.5 goals) in late night action Monday.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Washington +6 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

The Skins are in a nice spot here having 2 full weeks to get ready for this one.  Washington comes into this game with a 2-1 record with wins over Arizona & Green Bay and a loss to Indy.  They have outgained all 3 opponents including the Colts in their lone loss.  In that loss the Redskins missed a FG and pushed inside the Indy 40-yard line on each of their final 4 possessions and came away with just 6 points.  They bounced back with a home win over the Packers to carry some momentum into their bye week.  Washington has a huge edge defensively in this game as they rank #1 in total defense allowing only 278 YPG and #2 giving up only 4.7 YPP.  And remember they have faced Aaron Rodgers AND Andrew Luck in 2 of their 3 games.  New Orleans ranks 23rd in total defense allowing 391 YPG and 30th giving up 6.5 YPP.  The QB’s they have faced are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, Matt Ryan, and Eli Manning.  We’d have to say Washington has the better numbers defensively and played the tougher QB slate thus far.  While the Skins have outgained all 3 of their opponents, the Saints are getting outgained on the year by an average of 28 YPG.  We understand that Alex Smith is no Drew Brees but has been very solid for a full year plus now.  This year Smith is completing 69% of his passes for an average of 8 yards per pass attempt.  He has the better running game to help compliment him as well with the Skins averaging 138 YPG on the ground (3rd in the NFL).  Also expect Washington RB Adrian Peterson to have a little extra juice tonight facing the team that released him last year and with 2 weeks off.  Better defense, better running game, and a solid QB means we’ll take the 6 points in this one.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Arizona +3.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

After getting smoked their first two games of the year, the Cards have actually turned it around and are playing much better the last two weeks.  Granted they are still 0-4, but they played a very solid Chicago team well two weeks ago in a 16-14 loss.  They led 14-0 in that game so they definitely had a shot at the win.  Last week they lost 20-17 to Seattle as the Seahawks kicked the game winning FG as time expired.  New Arizona QB Josh Rosen was solid throwing for 180 yards, 1 TD, and most importantly no turnovers.  His numbers should have been better as the Cards dropped a number of passes they should not have.  RB David Johnson also started to look like his old self so this offense should be better moving forward.  That should start this week as Arizona has played a very tough schedule of defenses with all 4 ranking in the top 9 in PPG allowed.  Now they face a San Fran defense that is allowing 30 PPG and has given up at least 24 in every game this season.  The Niners had to go with their back up QB last week and the team rallied around CJ Beathard as normally happens in the first game without their star QB Garopollo.  They fell short @ the LA Chargers 29-27.  We expect them to regress this week after they lost their rallying cry game last week.  Beathard had a solid game but did throw 2 interception and lifetime he has more picks than TD passes.  He also is 1-5 as a starter and completes just 55% for his career.  Arizona’s defense, despite their record, has been solid.  If you take out their game vs the Rams (allowed 34 points in that game) who score on everyone, the Cards defense is allowing just 20 PPG.  They also rank as the 11th most efficient defense in the NFL.  The Cards have won 7 of the last 8 in this series and they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 visits to San Fran.  Take the points.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Oakland +6 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Raiders come into this game off a dramatic OT win over Cleveland.  That makes them 1-3 on the season and we’re guessing takes a little pressure off Gruden and company now that they have a win under their belt.  It’s not as if the Raiders were overmatched in their 3 losses as they led in the 4th quarter @ Denver and @ Miami and led late in the 3rd quarter vs the Rams.  They have actually outgained 3 of their 4 opponents and their YPG differential on the season is +39.  The Raiders are better than their 1-3 record in our opinion.  It’s not like the Chargers are lighting the world on fire here.  Their two wins have come against Buffalo and a San Francisco team without their starting QB.  That win over the Niners came last week and the Chargers had to come from behind in the 4th quarter to get that win.  The LA defense allowed back up QB Beathard to throw for 298 yards and 2 TD’s in that game.  This has been a hotly contested AFC West rivalry with 7 of the last 8 meetings being decided by one score.  The underdog has been money in the bank in this rivalry covering 15 of the last 18.  Don’t expect a huge home field advantage here either as the Chargers do not draw well in LA and the Raiders, who were formerly in LA, will have plenty of fans at the Stub Hub Center.  Take the points as we expect a close game here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re getting points with the better team here.  Much has been made of KC’s offense thus far but we expect defenses to catch up with their scheme.  We could see it on Monday night when KC went into Denver and had only 13 points with under 7:00 minutes remaining in the game.  They did score 2 TD’s late but for much of the game their offense was held in check by a pretty average Denver defense that ranks middle of the pack in most key categories.  Now they face a Jacksonville defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in efficiency, #1 in PPG allowed, #1 in YPG allowed, and #2 in yards per play allowed.  KC is on a short week after a come from behind division win on Monday night which is not a great spot for them.  While the Jags might have the best defense in the NFL, the Chiefs might have the worst.  They rank near the bottom of the NFL in many key categories including total defense, scoring defense, YPP defense, rush defense, yards per pass attempt allowed, and defensive efficiency.  The Jaguar offense has been solid with the exception of one game this year vs the Titans.  They’ve scored 31 points in 2 of their last 3 games and will put points up here vs a bad KC defense.  We rate Jacksonville with a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball which normally doesn’t equate to an underdog which is what we have here.  KC is overvalued right now because of their offense.  They’ve put up big numbers however all 4 of their opponents rank 20th or lower in pass defense.  They now run into a great defense in Jacksonville that ranks #1 in pass defense and a team who also has a pretty good offense.  The yards per play differential with these two teams in tells us a lot with Jacksonville at +1.3 YPP (one of the best in the NFL) and KC at -0.1 YPP.  This is one of those games a few months from now people may look back and wonder why they didn’t take advantage of Jacksonville as an underdog in this spot.  We’ll make sure we do.  Take the Jags here.