#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -12.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line opened with Wisconsin -11 and that was before IU knew their starting QB Penix was out for the season.  Once that was announced this line jumped to -14 and we don’t think it’s enough.  Penix is worth much more than 3 points to this team.  He was a huge reason their offense was able to top 30 points in 4 of their first 6 games.  He led the Big 10 in passing yards and has accounted for 16 of IU’s 24 TD’s this season.  The best 2 teams IU played this season were PSU which they beat on OT 36-35 despite getting outgained by almost 300 yards.  Then their game @ OSU was on the way to being a blowout with the Buckeyes up 35-7 when Penix went wild and threw for almost 500 yards and 5 TD’s to bring the Hoosiers back in that game.  Without Penix, we have no doubt they lose vs PSU (who now has only 1 win on the season) and they get destroyed by OSU.  What makes him even more important to this offense is the fact that Indiana can’t run the ball.  They put up good numbers on the ground last week vs Maryland, who ranks 116th in rush defense, but prior to that they were averaging 73 YPG on the ground.  That puts huge pressure on the QB to make plays and Penix was up to the task.  Now they start Jack Tuttle who has 16 career pass attempts.  On top of that they face a Wisconsin defense that is outstanding.  The Badgers rank #1 nationally in total defense, #3 in rush defense, and #3 in pass defense.  IU will not be able to run the ball in this game.  Tuttle will have to have the game of his life to keep the Hoosiers in this one.  We don’t see that happening.  Wisconsin is fresh for this one.  They had last week’s game vs Minnesota cancelled.  HC Chryst mentioned his team was able to heal up with the week off after their loss @ Northwestern.  In that game Wisconsin lost 17-7 but their were +5 first downs, +103 total yards, +112 rushing yards, and +15 minute time of possession.  Problem is they had 5 turnovers which is unlike a Wisconsin team.  They also played that game with both starting WR’s out and they were down to playing a freshman and 2 senior walk ons.  Because of that, QB Mertz was out of synch with his receivers from the beginning and tried to force a few things which led to turnovers.  The Badger defense held Northwestern to just 3.4 YPP in that loss and the Cats rushed the ball 23 times for 24 yards.  Again, IU will not have success on the ground in this game.  With the Badgers coming off a disappointing loss, with extra time to prepare, getting healthy (WR Davis is the only question mark on offense), and facing a team with an inexperienced QB we love this situation.  On top of that, while the Badgers are rested and healthy, this will be Indiana’s 7th straight week without a break.  We don’t think Wisconsin will have to score much to cover this number.  With the total set at 45.5, the projected score is right around 30-16.  We think the Badger offense gets rolling here and scores at least that while we would not be at all surprised if Indiana scores less than 14 points.  Wisconsin has won 10 straight in this series and we think they take another here by more than 2 TD’s.

#395 ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Iowa State is off a win at Texas last week and in the perfect spot for a letdown after all the late game dramatics in the win over the Longhorns.  The Cyclones have won 4 straight games and now are in the ideal spot to get upended as West Virginia certainly does not want to see the Cyclones punch a ticket to the Big 12 title game at their expense.  West Virginia has a fantastic defense and that will be a key in this game as Iowa State allowed 448 yards last week and is simply not on the same level defensively as the Mountaineers are.  West Virginia is allowing only 274 yards per game on the season.  On the other side of the ball, Mountaineers QB Doege has a 13-3 ratio and has helped lead the way for an offense averaging over 440 yards per game this season.  While Cyclones QB Purdy is having a respectable season as well, the pass defense of WVU is giving up 76.5 yards per game less than the Iowa State pass defense.  Our computer math modeling reflects Doege having strong odds for a bigger game than Purdy in this one.  The Mountaineers will be the fresher team here as they have been off since November 14th while the Cyclones are playing for the 3rd time since November 21st.  Big difference and that will prove important as this game gets further into the 3rd and 4th quarters.  The Cyclones are ranked 12th in the nation while the Mountaineers are unranked and yet this line moved off the key number of 7 and settled in at 6.5 during the week.  That is a strong indicator that sharps are siding with the dog here and the books are respecting that.  We're putting our sharp money right there as well with the Mountaineers ranking among the top defenses in the country and WVU is sure to bring their A game for this match-up given the situation.  This one has the right ingredients for a road dog upset and we're grabbing the points as West Virginia.

#412 ASA PLAY ON 8* Auburn Tigers (+) over Texas A & M Aggies, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - First off this is an interesting line in this game.  The Aggies are a highly-ranked team and opened up as low as a 4-point choice even though they are facing an unranked foe.  Sure enough, as we expected, the betting markets jumped on Texas A & M and drove the line up to as high as a -7 before it settled in at a -6.5 as of Friday afternoon.  We're happy to grab the additional line value here with the home dog Tigers as this one sets up very nicely.  Auburn is 4-0 SU at home this season and enter this game off a road loss which was to be expected as they faced mighty Alabama last week.  The Tigers are already 2-0 SU this season when off a loss and have covered 3 of their 4 home games on the year.  Aggies QB Kellen Mond is coming off a very rough start (11 of 34 for just 105 yards) and that was against an LSU defense that has struggled this season.  Now Mond faces a Tigers team that has allowed 17 points or less in 3 of its 4 home games this season.  Taking a look at the offensive production in this one, Auburn has scored an average of 34.3 points per game at home this season.  The Aggies had a blowout win in their most recent road game but that was against a bad South Carolina team.  In their other two road games Texas A & M averaged only 26 points per game.  The Aggies are off back to back big wins but against South Carolina and LSU (combined 5-11 record) and now face an Auburn team with a much better defense than those teams.  The Tigers, on the other hand, just faced the toughest team in the nation and will respond after the 29-point loss to Alabama.  The Aggies do have revenge here against Auburn but that is part of what is driving this line movement and revenge is often over-played.  Per our computer math modeling, the line move will prove to be wrong in this one and the underdog offers solid line value here.  This one has the makings of a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with Auburn.

#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -6 over Denver, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET - Looking at this number we can compare it to the Miami/Denver game last week and we see the value with the Saints. Last week a pretender the Miami Dolphins were just favored in Denver by 4 and now the Saints who might be the 2nd best team in the NFL are only -6.5.  Last week we felt the Broncos would be able to run on a Dolphins defense that is not good against the rush and they did it with 189yds. But Denver won't run here against the #1 ranked rushing D in the NFL allowing just 74RYPG and that puts the pressure on QB Drew Lock - who 2 weeks ago threw 4 INTS.  On the season Lock has 7 TD’s and 11 INT’s. New Orleans defense has 11 INT's this season tied for 4th most and could feast on Lock and the Broncos offense. In fact, the Saints produced 8 sacks last week vs. Atlanta and are 4th in the NFL at 3.2 sacks per game.  Just how dominant was the Saints defense last week against the Falcons? New Orleans just held Atlanta to 14 first downs and 52 rushing yards.  Saints QB Taysum Hill answered a lot of questions last week with his performance by going 18/23 passing with 233 yards NO INT’s. He’s also a duel threat under center with 51 yards rushing and 2 TD’s.  Consider this, last week the Saints averaged 6.8 Yards Per Play a FULL YARD more than their season average with Drew Brees. The Saints also average 10 Yards per pass attempt against the Falcons which is significantly better than their season average of 7.4YPPA.  Denver leans on a defense that is 9th in overall defensive efficiency but that typical advantage gets nullified here against a Saints offense that is clicking. The Saints have averaged 30PPG on: Tampa (2nd DEFF), San Francisco (10th DEFF) and Chicago (4th DEFF).  Just looking at raw data, New Orleans has a huge advantage offensively with the 5th most efficient offense compared to Denver who is last.  New Orleans has the 3rd best Margin of Victory this season at +7.3PPG / Denver loss margin -6.1PPG 28th in NFL.  We like the Saints laying under a TD here.

#194 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11 over Rutgers, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We love this situation for the Boilers.  They have lost 2 straight vs Northwestern & Minnesota so this is a very important home game for them.  Last week’s loss @ Minnesota was the infamous invisible offensive pass interference game.  Purdue scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining that seemingly gave them the win.  However, a terrible offensive pass interference was called taking away the TD and Purdue threw an interception on the next play in their 34-31 loss.  That game was on Friday which gave them an extra day to get ready for this must win game.  The Boilermakers outgained Minnesota by 100 yards in the game & had 8 more first downs in the loss.  We really liked what we saw from QB Plummer as he threw for 367 yards and 3 TD’s.  He was replacing O’Connell who was the starter (out with injury)  however we don’t consider Plummer a back up.  He started 7 games a year ago and was in a neck & neck battle with O’Connell for this year’s starting job.  We expect another big game from him vs a leaky Rutgers pass defense that ranks 95th nationally allowing 265 YPG through the air.  Another huge addition for Purdue last week was WR Moore who was back in the line up for the first time this year.  He is their best offensive weapon and accounted for 136 total yards last week.  Purdue’s offense will put plenty of points on the board here vs a Rutgers defense that has allowed 37 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games.  Rutgers had a crushing home defeat last week.  They faced a Michigan team that obviously is not nearly as good as they’ve been in the past, but they still have the name recognition so it was a huge game for Rutgers.  They jumped out to a 17-0 lead, then went down 35-27 late in the game, had to score a TD + 2 point conversion with under 1:00 minute remaining to send the game to OT.  On top of that, the Scarlet Knights then missed a FG in OT that would have given them the win and they wound up losing in 3 OT’s.  Now they have to go on the road and we just don’t see them playing well here after last week’s situation.  Plus, while they are improved, they still only have 1 win vs Michigan State (Sparty turned the ball over 7 times in that game) and they’ve been outgained in every game.  Even with their improvement, this Rutgers team ranks 91st nationally in total offense and 92nd in total defense.  This is a bad match up for them vs a Purdue team that is now at full strength on offense and is flying under the radar right now.  Rutgers has been a terrible road team with a 2-19 SU record their last 21 away from home and 17 of those losses have come by double digits.  We also like the line value here.  We have Purdue as 14 point favorite in our power ratings.  Last week Michigan was favored by this same number (-11) @ Rutgers and Purdue is better than Michigan this yet only laying -11 here.  Take the Boilermakers as this game has blowout potential.

#180 ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan State +13.5 over Northwestern, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We definitely look for Northwestern to be flat here after beating Wisconsin in their biggest game of the season last week.  That game basically locked up the Big 10 West for the Cats, especially now that the Badgers are not eligible (need to play at least 6 games) to win the division after getting their game with Minnesota cancelled this week.  The Cats haven’t been a great first half team to begin with this year.  If we throw out their first game vs Maryland (43-3 win) the Wildcats have outscored their last 4 opponents by a combined 2 points in the first half.  They’ve trailed at half in 2 of their last 4 games and they’ve been outgained in 3 of those games.  50 of the 60 points the Northwestern defense has allowed this year have come in the first half.  They make great adjustments on that side of the ball at halftime allowing just 10 total points in the 2nd half this year.  MSU had last week off after their game @ Maryland was cancelled.  They used last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday to work on fundamentals which we think is key.  They started prep for this game on Monday and coming of back to back losses vs Iowa & Indiana, we feel this is a rally the troops type home game for the Spartans.  Their offense should have some success here in the first half vs Northwestern.  They shouldn’t need much because the Cats simply don’t score many points in general and in the first half they are averaging just 13 PPG (last 4 games).  If MSU gets to 7 or 10 here by halftime, we really like them to cover this first half line.  Northwestern may regroup in the 2nd half, but we see them having a lackadaisical performance in the first 30 minutes.  Even if adjustments are made at halftime and Northwestern is better in the 2nd half, we still don't see them scoring enough to cover this large spread.  Take MICHIGAN STATE.

#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State Cyclones (+) over Texas Longhorns, Friday at 12:00 PM ET - Texas has covered 4 straight games in this series and the Longhorns are at home here and very little separates these teams in the rankings and yet the line is a pick'em!  This is even though the last time these teams met in Austin (just two years ago), UT won the game by two touchdowns and won the yardage battle by nearly 200 yards.  That was then, this is now, and the Cyclones are positioned well here.  Iowa State has won 6 of their last 7 games and the only loss in that stretch was a tight 24-21 defeat.  The Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas team playing for the first time in 3 weeks.  A scheduled bye week for the Longhorns was followed by a postponement last week as UT's game versus Kansas was pushed back to the end of the season.  A break is good but not when it is too much of a break.  Remember that the Longhorns also did not have a game in mid-October either.  That means this game, near the very end of November, was preceded by just 3 games for UT since the 11th of October!   The Longhorns were a favorite in this game when the line first popped up and though the line is moving toward a pick'em, it is worth mentioning that the Horns have a strong tendency to not perform as well at home under coach Herman.  In fact, the Longhorns have covered only 3 of their last 13 as a home favorite!  Iowa State has plenty of confidence entering this game as they have exploded for an average of 45 points per game during their current 3-game winning streak.  QB Brock Purdy and the Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas pass defense allowing over 300 passing yards per game in its last 4 games.  Though the Horns run defense has been solid, Iowa State running back Breece Hall is leading the nation in rushing with nearly 1,200 yards on the ground plus he has run for 15 touchdowns already this season.  Hall is a big reason the Cyclones offensive attack is so balanced and they will give the UT defense trouble in this one.  As for the Iowa State defense, they have held their last 5 opponents to an average of only 297 yards per game.  Texas has been the SU winner in 7 of the last 8 meetings in Austin but there is a reason the line on this game is set the way it is.  Though Iowa State did win against the Longhorns last season, they certainly have been reminded of how their last visit to Austin played out.  Per our computer math model, all signs point to the Cyclones getting some payback here for an ugly performance in their most recent visit to UT.  This one is set up for a big road win and Iowa State is the play here.

#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +10.5 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Talk about a ho-hum type game for the Steelers. They are coming off a division game vs the Bengals and they have a huge rematch on deck vs Baltimore. Not only do they play their arch rival Ravens next, it’s on Thanksgiving Day just 4 days away. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if Pittsburgh was flat as a pancake in this game. Pittsburgh has a history of playing to the level of their competition. This year alone they went to the wire with the Broncos, Cowboys, and Texans. Just a few weeks ago they went to Dallas as a big favorite, got outgained, and never led until 2:00 minutes to go in the game (Pitt win 24-19). Speaking of playing to the level of competition, the Steelers are now 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they’ve been favored by 10 or more. Dating back to 1980, they are just 25-40 ATS as a double digit favorite (38%). Pitt is really struggling to run the ball as of late which we like to see if fading a big favorite. Over their last 3 games they’ve run for 48, 46, and 44 yards. That’s it. And 2 of those games came against Dallas & Cincinnati who rank 31st and 27th respectively defending the run. Despite their record Jacksonville is showing some fight. Last week they’ve gave a very good Green Bay team all they could handle at Lambeau in a 24-20 loss. The Jags, unlike the Steelers, have started to run the ball very well outrushing each of their last 3 opponents. During that stretch they rushed for 140, 115, and 109 yards vs Chargers, Texans, and Packers. New starting QB Luton has looked solid in his 2 starts taking both Houston and GB to the wire in tight losses (473 yards passing). Defensively they’ve also improved as of late. After allowing 30 or more points in 6 straight games, they’ve held Houston and Green Bay, 2 of the top 10 offenses on a YPP basis, to 27 & 24 points. Jacksonville is still putting forth solid effort. Pittsburgh is in a tough spot playing their fourth road game in five weeks. We like the Jags to hang around in this game and cover the big number.

#358 ASA PLAY ON 8* Ohio State -20.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 Noon ET - We’re simply not sold on the undefeated Hoosiers quite yet.  They are 4-0 but let’s quickly recap their games so you can see what we mean.  They opened the season beating PSU 36-35 in OT.  Looked like a great win at the time.  PSU is now 0-4.  Not only that, the Nittany Lions dominated that game with nearly a +300 total yard advantage.  Their other wins have come against Rutgers, Michigan, and Michigan State.  Their home win vs the Wolverines looked great at the time as well but now, not swo much.  The combined record of those teams that IU beat is 3-10.  We think they are walking into a hornet’s nest here.  OSU had an unwanted bye last week as their game vs Maryland was cancelled.  They are healthy and anxious to get back on the field.  This is a prove a point type game for the Buckeyes and it might be their last one until the Big 10 Championship game as they should be favored by 28+ from this point on in the regular season.  IU is tied with OSU for first place in the Big 10 East and the winner has the inside track to the conference championship game.  Don’t think that hasn’t been brought up numerous times to the OSU players.  We think they get ahead and don’t take their foot off the pedal in this one as they want to make a statement.  Indiana struggles to run the ball ranking 117th nationally despite their easy schedule thus far.  That puts a ton of pressure on QB Penix to make plays and he has this year, however he’s seen nothing close to the defense he’ll see on Saturday.  He’s been fairly mistake free with just 3 interceptions this year.  We think that changes here vs a Buckeye defense that has 5 takeaways in 3 games.  The Hoosier defense has seen nothing close to OSU’s offense this season.  The QB’s they’ve faces are PSU’s Clifford (already been benched), Rutgers Vedral (already thrown 7 picks averaging only 180 YPG passing), Michigan’s Milton (just 58% completion rate), and MSU’s Lombardi (already benched).  Now they face Justin Fields who has completed 87% of this passes this year (only 11 incompletions this season) who has thrown for 52 TD’s and just 3 interceptions since taking over last season.  Ohio State has won 25 straight in this series and each of the last 4 have come by at least 21 points.  They were favored by 17 @ Indiana last year and won by 41 points.  We think OSU rolls in this game.

#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Air Force Falcons (-) over New Mexico Lobos, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - This line opened up at double digits and, as of Thursday afternoon, is down to a -7 on the Falcons.  We like the line value here with a move that we fully understand here but absolutely disagree with.   Part of the reason for the move is Rocky Long is the defensive coordinator for New Mexico and he has, in his pedigree, a history of stopping option teams.  However, he doesn't have the personnel this season to do it.  Three of the key components to properly stopping an option attack are game-planning, talent, and execution.  Long can game-plan all he wants but he still has to have the proper personnel and disciplined players to go out and execute and this is a bad Lobos defense.  So far this season they have not given up much on the ground but that's simply because teams know they can throw all over them.  In other words it does not necessarily mean that New Mexico is built to stop the run, it just means that when a team is allowing 410.3 passing yards per game why not throw against them?  That is the type of defense we're talking about here...a very bad one!  The Lobos have lost all 3 of their games this season and each of the last two seasons they were beaten badly in their match-ups with Air Force.  The Falcons won those games by an average margin of 20 points per game.   Also, AF averaged 345.5 yards per game on the ground and 236 yards through the air.  The Falcons enter this game off back to back losses but had over 400 yards rushing in their most recent game and that was against a tough Boise State team!  Now Air Force enters well-rested as they have had some covid issues result in postponements in recent weeks.  They will be ready to go here and just like in their season opener against Navy (we had the Falcons in that blowout  win of 40-7) when everyone doubts Air Force they seem to be at their best.  Look for them to take advantage of a Lobos offense likely to again be without QB Tevaka Tuioti (doubtful - concussion) and that means we likely again see Trae Hall under center.  Hall has a 0-2 TD-INT ratio this season and has been sacked 4 times in just about 40 dropbacks to pass plus he has not had success running the ball.  He also completes only about 50% of his passes.  On the other side of the ball, again Long just doesn't have the guys to be a successful defense.  This team lost nearly every starter from last year's defense and they are especially thin up front.  New Mexico has been playing their games in, and practicing in, Vegas due to covid issues in New Mexico.  Air Force has been at home and hungry to get back on the field after the Falcons lost at home against Boise State 3 weeks ago.  The Falcons have extra rest while the Lobos are playing a 4th straight week and the AF ground game will eventually wear them down.  The Falcons roll in this one.  This one has the makings of a home blowout and we're laying the points with Air Force.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -3 over Arizona - Value is on Seattle here.  They are favored by 3 in this game which is the same number they were favored @ Arizona just a few weeks ago.  Zona won that game 37-34 in OT but Seattle outgained the Cards and led by 10 with just 3:00 minutes remaining.  Seahawks have lost 2 in a row which is why this number is low.  Those losses were @ Buffalo (Seattle had 4 turnovers) and @ LA Rams who were coming off a bye.  They are still undefeated at home this year.  Arizona hasn’t been on the road since October 19th.  They are coming off a 3 game home stand where all 3 went to the wire (Seattle, Miami, and Buffalo).  Last week they pulled a miracle win over the Bills on a hail mary as time expired.  Arizona is just 2-2 on the road despite playing one of the easier road slates in the NFL (Jets, Cowboys, Panthers, and Niners) who combined for a 9-29 overall record.  Arizona’s defensive line is banged up with only 3 healthy players and Seattle gets RB Hyde back from injury here.  The Seahawks rushed for 200 yards in the first meeting and they should have success on the ground here which opens things up for QB Wilson.  Speaking of Wilson, he has NEVER lost 3 games in a row since coming to Seattle.  We don’t think he will here.  If he can limit turnovers tonight (Seattle had 3 in the first meeting) we like the home team to cover.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Western Michigan Broncos, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #314

Central Michigan not only lost at home to the Broncos last season, they also lost their most recent home meeting with Western Michigan as well.  Both defeats came by a double digit margin and now the Chippewas get revenge in an ideal situation.  The Broncos are off a last second win that involved a crazy late rally against Toledo last week.  That was a big revenge win for Western Michigan and it will be tough for the Broncos to come right back and play a strong game after what will likely go down as one of the most unlikely wins of this entire college football season.  Western Michigan scored 13 points with less than a minute to go in the game last week!  Central Michigan has been strong on defense as they have held their first two opponents to an average of 294.5 ypg.  The Broncos had an easy time with Akron in week one but then allowed over 500 yards of offense to Toledo last week.  That doesn't bode well for this week as they now take on a Chippewas team which is averaging 35 points per game this season.  Last season after the Chips lost at Western Michigan they won 6 of 7 games to close out the regular season and they have begun this season with a 2-0 mark.  As you can see, the Chippewas are surging and playing with confidence and they catch the Broncos off a very emotional win last week.  Our computer math model indicates high probability for a home win and Central Michigan is now a home dog here.  We'll take it!   

ASA PLAY ON 8* Akron Zips (+) @ Kent State Golden Flashes, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #302

This is too many points for a rivalry game.  Not only have these teams split the last ten meetings, Akron had won 4 straight games in this series prior to last season's loss in this match-up.  While this is a tough match-up for the Zips in what is appearing to be a rough season for them, there is no doubt they are going to bring a strong effort against their biggest rival.  Last week, Akron did look much better than they did in their first game as the Zips were a 27 point dog and yet didn't even give up 27 points in the game!  This week they are again in that line range as the markets continue to over-adjust to some early blowouts in MAC action. Kent State is off a massive win last week but their first win this season came by just 4 points.  Also, early this season the Zips have played the tougher schedule in comparison with the Golden Flashes.  That is helping to lead to huge line value here in a rivalry game.  The Zips defense has been respectable with allowing only 396.5 yards per game so far this season and will keep them in this game as well.  Grab the big points with Akron in what is forecast to be a much closer game than expected for this big road dog in evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago +3.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - This line opened with the Bears favored by -1.5 and has swung a full 4 points to Minnesota -3.5.  Too much in our opinion and the Vikings don’t justify laying more than 3 in this game.  Sure the Vikes are 2-0 since their bye week beating Green Bay and Detroit, but they were +6 @ GB and just -3 at home vs Detroit.  Now they are laying more than that @ Chicago?  Bad line.  Minnesota was able to run the ball at will vs those 2 defenses which rank 23rd and 24th in the NFL in YPC allowed.  Now they face a top 10 rush defense with Chicago allowing just 4.1 YPC.  Last week the Bears faced a Tennessee offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in rushing and held them to just 92 yards on the ground on 3.0 YPC.  Derrick Henry had just 68 yards on 21 attempts.  The Bears lost that game but actually outplayed the Titans on the road with a +11 first down edge and +147 total yardage edge.  If Chicago can slow down Dalvin Cook that places the pressure on QB Cousins to win the game.  We know how that goes as he is known for not stepping up in big moments and is 0-9 SU on Monday night football.  The Vikings offense has looked good but they’ve played mainly average to poor defenses.  In fact, 7 of their 8 opponents rank 19th or lower in YPP defense this season.  The one top 10 defense they played this year was Indy and the Vikings scored only 11 points in that game.  Chicago will be the best defense they’ve faced since that game which was back on September 20th.  The Bears offense looked much better last week putting up 375 yards on Tennessee.  Tonight they face a Minnesota defense that ranks a few spots below Tennessee when it comes to YPP defense (25th overall) and we expect Chicago to do enough on offense to have a great shot to win this game outright.  The Bears are 4-0 SU vs the Vikings since Matt Nagy took over as HC and we give them a great shot at making that 5-0 tonight.  If not, we expect a very close game and getting over a FG at home with the much better defense is our pick.  Take the Bears.

#273 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore -7 over New England, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - New England has fallen more than we ever thought they would. The loss of Tom Brady along with a league high 8 corona virus opt outs this year, many key contributors, have sent this team toward the bottom of the AFC. 2 of their 3 wins came early in the season but as of late this team has lost 4 of their last 5 with their only win coming on a last second FG vs the hapless Jets. That was on Monday night of this week so the Pats are working on a short week. In that game, New England ran a whopping 34 more offensive plays compared to the Jets and it still took a FG as time expired to win. They were outgained on a YPP basis vs the Jets and fairly handily 7.3 to 5.7. The Patriot defense allowed a Jet offense that ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 4.5 YPP to roll up their best numbers of the year at over 7.0 YPP. And that was with back up QB Flacco at the helm for NY. The offense was sputtering before facing the Jets last week scoring 10, 12, 18 and 21 points their previous 4 games. Now they face one of the top defensive units in the NFL and we don’t expect them to do much on Sunday night. If Baltimore can run the ball their offense is very good. They lead the NFL in rushing and they face a Patriot defense that is 25th at stopping the run. If the Jets can score 27 points on 7.3 YPP vs New England, imagine what Baltimore will do. Baltimore has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Pittsburgh and the Ravens ran for 265 yards in that game vs the #1 rush defense in the league at the time. The Ravens beat this Patriots team by 17 points last year w/Tom Brady and we see no reason they don’t run away with this one. They have plenty of motivation sitting 2 games behind Pittsburgh in the AFC East. Lay it.

#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Buffalo picked up a huge home win last week over Seattle 44-34.  However, the yardage was about dead even for the game but Seattle had 4 TO’s and Buffalo scored points after each one of those turnovers.  Prior to last week, the Buffalo offense had not been playing well at all.  In their previous 4 games they had scored 16, 17, 18 and 24 points.  Their offense looked much better last week but they were playing the last ranked defense in the NFL (Seattle) along with the 4 TO’s which put the offense in a number of good field position situations.  The Buffalo defense continued to struggle giving up 6.7 YPP.  This defense is not even close to the same level as last year’s that allowed a full 1.0 YPP less.  Big win and now on the road will be tough for Buffalo who hasn’t played on the road since beating the hapless Jets 18-10 on October 25.  Arizona is playing their third straight home game and coming off a loss.  They should have some extra motivation off that loss and the fact that they play 3 of their next 4 on the road.  This is a big game for Arizona.  Last week they lost 34-31 vs Miami despite outgaining the Fins by 130 yards and +1.3 YPP.  The Cards come into this one ranking #1 in the NFL in total offense and #2 in rushing.  That’s going to be a problem for a Buffalo defense that has struggled to stop the run this year allowing 125 YPG.  Despite their records (Arizona is 5-3 / Buffalo is 7-2) the Cards own the better point differential (+54 to +9) and the better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.3).  Arizona QB Murray has a big day vs the Buffalo defense and the Cards get the home cover.

#259 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia -4 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This is just a terrible spot for the Giants. This will be their 10th consecutive week with out a bye and they are facing a Philly team that is getting healthy and coming off their bye week. Last week the Giants topped Washington 23-20 in what we call a false final score. Washington outgained the Giants 402 to 350 despite running 24 fewer offensive snaps. The YPP final tally was Washington 8.0 and NYG 4.7. That’s a Washington offense that ranks right near the bottom of the NFL in YPP offense averaging just 4.9. Washington had a ridiculous 5 turnovers and the Giants still barely won the game. Just 2 weeks ago the NYG defense held Washington to 4.9 YPP in their 20-19 win. To put that in perspective, Washington’s highest YPP total before last week was 6.0 and that was vs a terrible Dallas defense. It looks to us like the Giants are running out of gas on defense which is understandable having played 10 consecutive weeks. The Eagles are the most talented team in this crappy division. They lead the NFC East with a 3-4-1 record despite the fact they’ve been one of the most injured teams in the NFL this season. They are now starting to get healthy after the bye week with starting LT Johnson, starting WR Jeffery, and starting RB Sanders all coming back. These 2 faced off a few weeks ago and the Eagles came out with a tight 22-21 win. Philly outgained the Giants 442 to 325 in that game but blew a number of opportunities missing a FG, throwing a pick at the NY endzone, and they were also shut out on downs at the NY 3 yard line. Now the Eagles are healthier and rested and we think they get this win by at least a TD. Philly has won 8 straight in this series and the Giants have not stepped up at home vs better teams with a 2-12 ATS mark their last 14 as a home dog. Eagles take care of the weary Giants

#192 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON San Diego State Aztecs (-) over Hawaii Warriors, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - Situations don't get much better than this. The Aztecs just lost at home by a double digit margin even though they were a double digit favorite versus San Jose State! Undoubtedly, there will be extra focus from San Diego State this week at home after what happened right here last week. Not only that, after beating the Warriors 6 straight times both SU and ATS in MWC action, Hawaii has beaten the Aztecs each of the past two seasons including once as a huge underdog. So this is a double revenge spot for San Diego State and they are catching the Warriors at the perfect time to exact that revenge. Hawaii is off of a home win over New Mexico but they allowed 33 points to the Lobos and NM is not only one of the worst teams in the MAC but one of the worst in the nation for FBS programs! The Warriors now are on the road again - for the 3rd time in 4 weeks! - while the Aztecs are back home for a 2nd straight week. The scheduling edge and situational edge here both are huge factors. Additionally, Hawaii has allowed an average of 32 points per game their past two games and allowed 31.9 points per game last season. San Diego State allowed only 12.7 points per game last season and, before getting upset by the Spartans and allowing 28 points last week, the Aztecs allowed 7 points or less in EACH of their first two games. Huge defensive edge to the home team in this one including allowing just 233 yards per game this season while the Warriors are allowing 433 yards per game! The Aztecs also are outgaining Hawaii on the offensive side (452 to 429) and, per our computer math model, San Diego State pulls away as this one goes on. This one has all the right ingredients for a blowout home win and we're laying the points with San Diego State

#148 ASA PLAY 8* ON Boston College Eagles (+) over Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - While it is true that the Fighting Irish have beaten the Eagles big in each of the last two meetings, it is also true that this is a very unique situation.  Notre Dame is off an OT win over Clemson, the #1 team in the nation, and they have a big game against North Carolina on deck.  Will the Irish be able to fully focus on a team they've beaten by an average margin of 31 points in the past 2 meetings?  That is highly unlikely and, as a result, Boston College will take advantage and keep this game very close throughout as they seek a big upset win of their own.  Another angle to like here is Eagles QB Jurkovec going against his former team.  Though Boston College will find it a bit of a challenge to run against the ND defense, Jurkovec has a 15-4 ratio this season and will do some damage through the air here as the Fighting Irish get caught flat after the monumental win over the Tigers last week.  Though the Eagles are off a non-covering win over Syracuse last week, they did go with a very conservative gameplan there and held the Orange to only 240 yards.  On offense, Boston College certainly held back plenty in the playbook that they have been saving for this week's huge game at Chestnut Hill, MA.  Also, the Clemson team that Notre Dame just beat last week was without star QB Lawrence plus a number of starters on defense.  A big win for the Irish for sure but would have been unlikely had those guys played.  Boston College recently faced the same Clemson team and lost by only 6 points.  The point is that the Eagles can absolutely be competitive here with the Irish and the last 11 times that BC has been a home underdog they have only lost one time ATS!  This one has potential for the home dog keeping it close all the way through and we're grabbing the points with Boston College

#127 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Iowa -3.5 over Minnesota, Friday at 7:00 PM ET Iowa picked up their first win of the season last Saturday but they are much better than a 1-2 team. They’ve actually outgained all 3 of their opponents and they are +1.1 YPP differential on the season which is very solid. They’ve led all 3 games in the 4th quarter as well. The Hawks finally put it all together last week in a dominating 49-7 win over Michigan State. The defense, which has played very well this season, held MSU to just 10 first downs and only 59 yards rushing (Iowa had 226 yards on the ground). That defense is getting 2 key players back this week including starting LB Campbell who will now split time at the position helping their depth. Minnesota’s defense played much better last week but we’re not falling for it. The first 2 games they were terrible allowing 94 points on more than 9.0 YPP. So why did they look so much better last week? They played an Illinois team that has had a number of key players out with Covid and their QB position is in disarray as they were down to their 4th string QB Taylor who only completed 6 passes the entire game. This defense still stinks and even with last week’s performance they are allowing 8.2 YPP which is the worst in college football. They have the same 1-2 record as Iowa but the Gophers YPP differential is -2.0 which is a full 3 yard difference PER PLAY when compared to Iowa’s YPP differential numbers which we discussed earlier. The Gophers leaned heavy on their running game last week with 325 yards vs a terrible Illinois defense but they won’t get that luxury this week facing a Hawkeye defense that is allowing just 2.6 YPC this season. On the flip side, Iowa ran the ball very well last week and should continue vs a Minnesota defense that allows 7.3 YPC. This should keep the Iowa offense very balanced in this game which is bad news for an already terrible Gopher defense. On the other side this will be the best defense that Minnesota has faced this season. They’ve faced 2 terrible stop units (Maryland & Illinois) and a Michigan defense that has proven to be not so good thus far. The defensive difference in this game is enormous so we’re siding with Iowa to win and cover on the road.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis +2 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Colts coming off a loss with Tennessee coming off a win. We also like the fact that Indy outplayed the Ravens last week on the stat sheet while the Titans actually were outplayed by the Bears. Indy went from a 4-point dog at last week’s open vs Baltimore to a 1-point favorite near game time. They outgained the Ravens by a full +1.0 YPP in the game but had 2 turnovers which led directly to 14 of Baltimore’s 24 points. The biggest play of the game came late in the first quarter with Indianapolis already up 7-0 moving inside Baltimore’s 40 yard line looking to go up 2 scores. The Colts fumbled and it was returned 65 yards for the Ravens first TD to tie the game at 7-7. A potential 14-point turnaround on that play alone. Tennessee was favored by 6.5 at home vs Chicago and picked up a 24-17 win. The Bears outgained Tennessee by +1.0 YPP in the game despite the loss. The Tennessee defense, which ranks 25th in total defense allowed the below average Bears to roll up 375 yards. That’s a Chicago offense that had topped 280 yards only once in their previous 5 games. And the Titans weren’t playing particularly well entering the game having lost to the Steelers & Bengals in their previous 2 games. Tennessee could be sitting on a 3 game losing streak but got a little lucky last week. The Colts are 3-1 on the road this year and they own the #1 ranked total defense in the NFL. So we have a motivated team, getting points, with the much better defense. The Colts have also owned this AFC South series covering 13 of the last 17 meetings. Indy is the play on Thursday night.

#116 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Northern Illinois Huskies (+) over Central Michigan Chippewas, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Central Michigan is off a tight win at home but they were helped by a pair of Ohio University turnovers.  Also, the Bobcats simply aren't on the level with the Buffalo team that Northern Illinois had to face last week.  In fact, heading into the season many had Buffalo pegged as the best team in the MAC this season.  That said, even though the Huskies lost ugly on the scoreboard against the Bulls there are a couple of important factors to note.  One is that it was a big-time revenge game for Buffalo.  Another is that Northern Illinois was done in by turnovers in that game as too many fumbles were the difference in that one.  In fact the Huskies actually outgained the Bulls and had 26 first downs compared to just 14 for Buffalo.  Now Northern Illinois is in the 2nd of back to back home games and will certainly take better care of the ball in this one.  Central Michigan is being over-valued as this line opened up at a 6 but has moved up past the -7 mark as of Tuesday evening.  The Chippewas are getting too much respect here.  Even if QB David Moore returned from his suspension for this one it would be his first live game action in a full year.  If Central Michigan is again without Moore, most likely, it will be a redshirt freshman Daniel Richardson making his first ever road start at QB.  This will be much tougher on Richardson in comparison with playing at home last week.  The Huskies also have revenge on their minds here as they got blasted at Central Michigan last season.  The last time the Chippewas visited Northern Illinois the Chips lost by a 24-16 margin.  Per our computer math model this game has high probability that it will be a game decided by a single possession which means great value with the Huskies available in the +7.5 range for this one.  This one has potential for a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with Northern Illinois

ASA PLAY ON 8* Bowling Green Falcons (+) vs Kent State Golden Flashes, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #110

Kent State is off a win last week but it was a tight one even though it came against an Eastern Michigan team many project to be the worst team in the MAC West this season.  Bowling Green, on the other hand, is off an ugly loss but they faced a team that many expect to be the best team in the MAC West this season.  Also, the Falcons were playing right into the teeth of revenge when they faced the Rockets at Toledo last week.  As for the Golden Flashes, they were at home last week but now they are on the road and there has been an overreaction by the markets based on last week's results.  This line is up near a full 3 TDs now and, per our computer math model, that big of a number is simply not justifiable here.  The last time these teams met at Bowling Green, Kent State won the game by just a single TD.  Yes the Golden Flashes blasted the Falcons last season but the first downs were 34-20 in that game and a key difference was a 2-0 turnover differential.  That is the only reason that game ended up with such a wild margin.  Kent State allowed 473.5 yards per game last season which was one of the worst marks in the nation and their defense will give up plenty here on the road and that will make it very tough for the Golden Flashes to cover this inflated pointspread.  Grab the points with Bowling Green in what is forecast to be a much closer game than expected for this big home dog in evening action Tuesday.

#375 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -12 over Kansas State, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was OSU’s loss to Texas. In that 41-34 OT loss, OSU was +15 first downs, outgained the Longhorns 530 to 287 but had 4 turnovers (Texas had 0) which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense so the OSU defense, which is really good this year, held them 200 yards below their average. The Cowboys rank 14th nationally in total defense and they’ve held every opponent this year below their season average in YPG. The only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of them (slightly) is West Virginia and the Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. KSU will have all sorts of problems with this Oklahoma State defense as well. The Cats lost starting QB Thompson for the season a few weeks ago. His replacement Will Howard is a freshman with very little experience. Howard has now started 3 games and if you subtract KSU’s game vs Kansas who stinks, they have scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s with him under center. The Wildcats 4-2 record doesn’t look bad but the fact is they are getting outgained by almost 100 YPG and they’ve been outgained by every team they’ve faced this year with the exception of Kansas. That includes Arkansas State who upset KSU 35-31. The Cats do have a signature win over Oklahoma this year which might be keeping them overvalued but they were beaten badly in the stat sheet in that game as well with the exception of turnovers (Oklahoma had 4 / KSU had 0). They also trailed by 21 in that game but had senior QB Thompson in the line up to help with the comeback. The Cowboys offense has averaged 35 PPG over their last 3 games and they received a big boost when starting QB Sanders returned two weeks ago vs Iowa State. He has thrown for over 600 yards and 5 TD’s in his 2 games since returning. He and the OSU offense should have a field day vs a Kansas State defense that is allowing 437 YPG ranking them 78th in total defense out of 113. Last week they allowed WVU to roll up almost 500 yards and tally 37 points. We don’t think Kansas State will be able to keep up here. The Cowboys have rebounded well off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record off their last 8 defeats and they want to rebound from last week’s disappointing loss as they head into a bye week. Lay it as this has the makings of an easy win for Oklahoma State.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan -3 over Indiana, 12:00 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for Michigan. They are coming off a home loss vs Michigan State while IU sits on top of the Big Ten East with a 2-0 record, tied with OSU. The Hoosiers are very fortunate to be undefeated. They topped PSU in OT in week 1 despite getting outgained 488 to 211 and outrushed 250 to 41. Last week they beat a Rutgers team that just ended a 23 game conference losing streak a week prior. So in essence, IU won a game they shouldn’t have and beat Rutgers. Big deal. Michigan destroyed Minnesota in week 1 putting up 49 points. Last week it looked like they were a bit full of themselves entering their game vs arch rival MSU who was off a loss to Rutgers (due to 7 MSU turnovers). Sparty definitely looked like the more motivated team and pulled the upset. The Wolverines should be very motivated here off that performance. Their offense has been good putting up 481 vs Minnesota and 452 vs a solid MSU defense. On defense they’ve been solid against the run and struggled a bit vs the pass. IU can’t run the ball. They’ve averaged 1.6 YPC vs PSU and 2.6 YPC vs Rutgers. Michigan should shut down that portion of their offense making them one dimensional. Indiana QB Penix is solid but not the type of throwing quarterback you want to carry a team through the air. These 2 have faced off 32 times since 1980. Michigan has won 31 of those games and has been favored in all 32. This current line of Michigan -3 is the lowest spread ever in this series. Michigan was favored by 10 here last year with fans in the stands for IU (Mich won 39-14). Now they are a full TD lower just 1 year later with in an empty IU stadium? Looks like the Wolverines are undervalued coming off their loss while Indiana is overvalued with their 2-0 start. Lay the points with Michigan.

ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #377

A key factor during the season to find value on a weekly basis is to find games which fit the bill as a phony final where the scoreboard just does not match what truly took place on the field and the box score serves as the evidence! One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was Texas getting an upset win over Oklahoma State. In that 41-34 OT win, Texas was -15 first downs, the Longhorns were outgained 530 to 287 but had a 4-0 turnover edge which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense but it was quickly proven that a solid defense could give them problems (held under 300 yards in the OT win). Indeed, last week Texas faced an OSU defense that is really good this year and now the Longhorns face the only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of the Cowboys and that is West Virginia. The Mountaineers have been fantastic on that side of the ball this season and held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. Texas will have some problems with this West Virginia defense as well. The Mountaineers are allowing just 19.8 points and only 255.7 yards per game this season. Their defense rates a huge edge over that of the Longhorns. Texas allowed just 3 points in their season opener but that was against an out-classed UTEP team. Since then, UT has allowed 38.4 points per game. As you can see, that is almost exactly DOUBLE what the West Virginia defense is allowing this season. This is also a revenge game for the Mountaineers as they lost last season's match-up 42-31. In fact, this series has been dominated by the road team and West Virginia won at Texas 42-41 in 2018. It looks like another upset could be in the offing in this one! Mountaineers QB Doege has thrown for 300+ yards in 3 straight games and faces a Horns pass defense that has struggled in Big 12 games. Look for the road to improve to 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams as coach Herman's team falls to 3-10 ATS the last 13 times they have been a home favorite in Big 12 action. As you can see above, there is strong situational value in this spot and per our computer math model, the forecast is a close game with great potential for an outright upset for the road team in this one. Grab the points in this Saturday early afternoon Big 12 match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Colorado State Rams (+) vs Wyoming Cowboys, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #306

The Mountain West Conference season is just getting going and, as per usual, early on in the season there can be an over-reaction to just one game.  We feel that is the case here as the Rams lost by 21 points at Fresno State last week and now come into this game as a home dog of more than a field goal.  Our computer math model projections are forecasting that Colorado State will play much better at home this week.  Wyoming is off a big win versus Hawaii but that was at home.  The Cowboys are now back on the road and they lost their only road game this season.  Wyoming did force OT in their lone away game, at Nevada, but actually trailed that game by 15 points entering the 4th quarter.  The Rams best receiver, Dante Wright, missed the season opener but has been upgraded to probable for this game and that will open up the passing game for Colorado State.  The Rams will take advantage of a Wyoming defense that did allow nearly 500 yards at Nevada in their season opener.  Cowboys offense is a "run first" team and the Rams allowed just 84 rushing yards on 43 carries last week.  In other words, this one sets up very well for the host.  Grab the points with Colorado State in what could be an underdog upset and what is forecast to be, at the very least, an ATS cover for the home dog in evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +13 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We feel the Giants are in a great situational spot here with 10 days to rest & prepare off their Thursday night game. Tampa made the long trip to Las Vegas last Sunday and they are on the road again this week. Great value as well on the home team here as this spread opened Bucs -8.5 or -9, which is where we have it power rated, and it’s been pushed all the way to -13 as Tampa is now officially a public team. This number is more than double Tampa’s highest road number this year – they were favored by 6 @ Denver, at team we have rated very closely to the Giants. While NY has a poor overall record, they’ve been competitive for the most part. All but 1 of their games has been decided by 10 points or less with 4 of those games being decided by 4 points or less. The Giants have been able to hang in most of their games due to a solid yet underrated defense. They rank in the top 13 in the NFL in both YPG allowed and YPP allowed. They’ve given up 26 points or less in 5 of their games and when your getting nearly 2 TD’s that significant. Offensively they’ve started to come around after not topping 16 in any of their first 4 games the Giants have put up 34, 20, and 21 points their last 3. Tampa has a HUGE game with AFC South rival New Orleans next Sunday and we expect the Giants to give them a good run in this one. Take the points.

#268 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Chicago +4.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not huge proponents of Chicago this year as their offense has struggled, but this line in flat out wrong in our opinion.  The Bears are getting almost a TD (5 points as of this writing) vs a team we feel is drastically overvalued.  For comparison’s sake, the Saints were favored by 3 @ Detroit and by 4 @ Las Vegas in their 2 road games this year.  They lost by 10 @ Vegas and had to hold on late to beat the Lions 35-29.  Now they are laying more than that to a Bears team that is 5-2?  The Saints simply aren’t that great this year.  They have 4 wins and 3 of those have come by 6 points or less.  Last week they held on at home to beat the Panthers 27-24 but Carolina outgained them on a YPP basis.  New Orleans ran 24 more offensive plays in that game and were only able to win by 3 game home vs Carolina.  The same Panther team the Bears beat on the road by 7 a week earlier.  Prior to their Carolina win, the Saints had to come from 17 points down at home to nip the Chargers in OT.  Bears might be without WR Robinson in this game (questionable) however New Orleans will be without their top 3 WR’s here as Thomas, Sanders, and Callaway have all been ruled out.  The Saints haven’t been on the road since October 4th and they have played a single game outdoors this season.  New Orleans is an indoor, fast track team.  On Sunday they are going to get 25 MPH winds and temps in the 30’s (windchill in the 20’s) at Soldier Field facing one of the top defenses in the NFL.  We get it, Chicago looked bad on Monday night and their offense has struggled.  However, this is simply too much value on the home team to pass up in this spot.  Chicago bounces back after a poor performance, their offense looks better, and their defense continues their stellar play on Sunday.  This one goes to the wire and we grab the points with Chicago.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Louisville Cardinals (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #122

Louisville did lose at home to Miami this season but the Hurricanes only loss this season was to Clemson so the 5-1 Canes are having quite a season. The point is that the Cardinals can be a tough team at home and they have proven that with their other two games seeing them prevail by a combined score of 83 to 37 which includes last week thrashing of Florida State. We like taking teams in back to back home games when they are off a dominating win and building confidence. This is a Louisville team on the rise under coach Scott Satterfield who is now in his 2nd season here. Satterfield went 40-11 in his last 4 seasons with Appalachian State before coming to Louisville. Though the Cards are a tough 2-4 this season they easily covered at Notre Dame when they lost by just 5 as a 15.5 dog and also lost by just 3 in a tough road game at Pittsburgh. Considering those tight losses and the fact the Cardinals are off a big confidence-boosting win you can see why we like having them as a home dog in this spot. Louisville gained 569 yards of offense last week and only had to punt twice and now they host a Hokies team that is 0-3 ATS in road games this season! This is a back to back road situation for Virginia Tech for the 2nd time this season. How did the first one go? In the 2nd game of the back to back the Hokies allowed 56 points in a loss at North Carolina! Per our computer math model, Virginia Tech is going to drop to 4-12 ATS the last 16 times they have been a road favorite. This is a great spot for the home dog so we're grabbing the points in this Saturday afternoon ACC match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #185

This line may seem surprising to some considering that the Rebels record of 1-4 certainly doesn't seem worthy of this large of a point spread on the road. However, the key here is just how truly bad this Vanderbilt team is right now on both sides of the ball. The Commodores simply will not be able to keep up with a high-powered Ole Miss offense. The Rebels 34.8 points per game average is more than the TOTAL points that Vandy has scored all season! Indeed, Vanderbilt has totaled only 26 points in their 3 games. Though losing to A & M by just a 5 point margin in their first game is, on the surface, impressive, turnovers played a role in that game and helped keep Vandy in it. In their next two games the Vandy problems were not masked by turnover differential and they got blown out by a combined score of 82-14 in those two games. The Commonders defense allows 7.25 yards per play and their offense averages only 3.95 yards per play. This ranks Vandy among the worst teams in the nation on both sides of the ball. Ole Miss comes into this game angry about their 1-4 record on the season and also about feeling a bit "cheated" by a key officiating blunder in last week's loss to Auburn. With a bye week on deck, and a ton of penned up frustration to let loose, the Rebels are ready to completely obliterate the next team they see. That said, this Commodores team is in for a long afternoon even though they are on their home field. The Rebels, given the situation, will simply not let up here, and this is an offense that is averaging 521 yards per game which is more than double what the Commodores average at 257 per game. Vanderbilt also has been heavily impacted by covid issues this season and will be playing for the first time in 3 weeks! The Commodores lost by 25 at Ole Miss last season and our computer math model is forecasting a similar point differential in this one even though this game is at Vanderbilt. Ensuring the proper focus here for Ole Miss is the fact they did lose their last visit to Vandy two years ago and they have been reminded of that heading into this game. Though they lost that one by a TD it was a fluke loss as the Rebels outgained Vanderbilt by nearly 200 yards in that one! Last season, by the way, the Rebels outgained the Commodores by 242 yards. The point being that the Commodores have proven time and time again that they can not stop this Ole Miss potent attack and their ground game is phenomenal this season with two of the top rushers in the nation! On the other side of the line, the Rebels defense has been a problem this season but facing one of the worst offenses in the nation will prove to be the perfect remedy. That said, we see no way in the world that the Commodores are going to be able to keep up with an Ole Miss offense that is highly motivated and averaged 42 points in its first 3 games this season and that included games against Florida, Kentucky, and Alabama. Lay the big points and look for a dominating road rout in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan State +24.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This line is simply too high for this rivalry. Last year’s line was Michigan -13.5 at home WITH fans and now just one year later we are looking at the Wolverines nearly 2 TD’s higher in an empty stadium. Let’s not overreact to what happened last week which is why this line is so high. MSU lost at home to Rutgers, we get it. However, they outgained the Knights by nearly 100 yards but had SEVEN turnovers. MSU’s first 6 offensive possessions went like this – fumble, fumble, shut out on downs, TD, interception, and fumble. You simply have zero chance to win a game at any level if you turn the ball over on half of your offensive possessions which is exactly what the Spartans did. Defensively they were solid. The allowed barely over 2.0 YPC on the ground and they held Rutgers to less than 4.0 YPP. Michigan looked great last week (overvalued now?). They took on a Minnesota team that was returning most of their key players offensively but had to retool nearly their entire defense. The Gophs also announced just before game time they would be without 2 starting offensive lineman along with their top LB (COVID issues). Thus the new sports handicapping world we live in where PJ Fleck keeps that under wraps from everyone until right before the game starts (we had Minnesota). Let’s not forget Michigan has a brand new QB who made his first ever start, 4 new offensive lineman, and they lost their top 2 receivers from last year. Now they face an MSU defense that should be fairly solid this year and we don’t expect them to put up 40+ as they did last week vs a depleted Minnesota defense. We expect new head coach Mel Tucker to rally the troops this week after an embarrassing performance last Saturday. This is the 2nd highest spread EVER in this series and only TWICE in the last 27 games in this series has there been a winning margin of more than 24 points. The line value is definitely on MSU here and we’ll take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #118

Kansas State is off a big win over the Jayhawks. Of course Kansas is a bad football team but that is still a big game every year for the Wildcats as that is their long-time in-state rival. Off that big win, Kansas State is in trouble here as they face a Mountaineers team that comes in angry off a loss at Texas Tech. West Virginia outgained the Red Raiders by nearly 100 yards but were done in by a late fumble return for a touchdown! The Mountaineers are allowing only 262 yards per game this season and the Wildcats go from facing a bad Kansas team to now facing what has been one of the top defenses in the nation so far this season. The Mountaineers have covered each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and have 4 straight SU wins in the series as well. The Wildcats are playing their 6th game this season and so far have won the yardage battle in only 1 game this season! On the other hand, West Virginia is averaging 461 and allowing only 262 per game. The markets are a bit enamored with Kansas State here because their big win over the Jayhawks was their 4th straight cover. That is keeping this line lower than is should be and the marketplace has a short attention span and simply sees West Virginia as the team that lost to Texas Tech last week. That leads to value in a spot like this as our computer math model is forecasting a big win by a double digit margin for the home team in this one. Lay the points and look for a blowout home win in this Saturday early afternoon Big 12 match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 8* ATLANTA - Carolina has been an underdog in 6 of their 7 games this year. Their one shot as a favorite they lost by a TD to a Chicago team that isn’t looking all that great right now. The Panthers are coming off a huge division game @ New Orleans which went to the wire with the Saints winning by 3. Even though this is a division game as well, the Falcons are just 1-6 SU on the year so we wouldn’t be surprised if Carolina is a bit flat here as they have already beaten the Falcons. Atlanta has improved since their first meeting with Carolina which was a 23-16 loss. After they canned head coach Quinn the Birds beat Minnesota by 17 and lost to Detroit by 1 point in a very fluky ending. The Lions scored with no time remaining last week to pick up a 23-22 win. Defensively they allowed 32 PPG in their first 5 games and after Quinn was removed they are allowing 23 PPG with one of those games coming vs a Minnesota offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in YPP. There is something very fishy about this line. It opened Carolina -3 and despite more than 70% of the tickets coming in on the Panthers, it’s down to -2.5 and even -2 at some spots. Despite their earlier result vs Carolina this year, Atlanta has won and covered 8 of the last 10 in this series and we think they win outright tonight. Take the Falcons.

ASA PLAY 8* ON South Alabama Jaguars (+) @ Georgia Southern Eagles, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #104

The Jaguars are the hotter team with back to back wins and covers and plus are now 4-1 ATS on the season. Also, South Alabama has played the tougher early season schedule in comparison with Georgia Southern. The Eagles, despite playing a weaker schedule, have not impressed. Georgia Southern is just 2-3 ATS this season. Their only big SU win was a blowout win over a very bad UMass team. The Eagles other 2 SU wins were by a combined 6 points even though Georgia Southern was favored by an average spread of 27 in those two games - against Campbell and UL-Monroe. Part of the reason for the line value here is because Georgia Southern has dominated this series with South Alabama and that is "baked into" this line which is making it higher than it should be. The Eagles are getting some shading for that as well as shading for the home field edge here. However, the Jaguars went 6-2 ATS last year as an underdog in SunBelt Conference action. Also, South Alabama beat UL-Monroe by 24 points last week and that is the same team that Georgia Southern only beat by a margin of 5 points. It looks like this is the year the Jags finally turn the tables on the Eagles and this one sets up well with underdog value. Grab the points with South Alabama in what could be an underdog upset and what is forecast to be, at the very least, an ATS cover for the road dog in evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -6 over the Chicago Bears, Monday 8:25 PM ET - Let’s compare how these two teams currently sit in their scheduling situation. The 5-1 Bears are off a misleading win in Carolina, while the 4-2 Rams are off a Divisional loss to the 49ers. Chicago didn’t play great in Carolina with QB Nick Foles throwing for under 200 yards and the offense gaining less than 260 on the day. The Bears were outgained in the game 4.9 yards per play to 4.1YPPL but Carolina had 3 turnovers. Chicago’s offense has been brutal this year ranking 28th in yards per play offense and 27th in scoring. Against the good defenses they’ve faced (Indy, TBay and Carolina) they have averaged less than 270-total yards of offense. The Bears will face a great Rams defense tonight that is 4th in yards per game allowed and 5th in scoring D allowing just 19PPG. Los Angeles lost in San Francisco last week which doesn’t look as bad as it was now that the 49ers are getting healthy and destroyed New England on the road yesterday. The Rams are 11-4 SU their last fifteen when coming off a loss and they’ve won those games by an average of 7.6PPG which clearly gets us a cover here. Yes, these defenses are near even but the Rams have the 10th best offense in yards gained per game and have won 39 of their last 58 at home since 2017. Their average margin of victory in those games is +6PPG. Bears QB Nick Foles is best when he’s comfortable in the pocket and not pressured but that won’t be the case tonight against this Rams defense led by DE Aaron Donald. As long as this line is under a TD we will side with the Rams.

#467 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Seattle -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Arizona looks like they are rolling going 2-1 on their 3 game road trip. Not so fast. Their wins on that road trip were the winless Jets and struggling Cowboys (without Prescott at QB). Minus their win over San Francisco in the season opener where they were outgained 6.0 to 5.2 YPP, Arizona’s win shave come against teams with a combined record of 3-15 with Washington being their other win besides the two mentioned above. While the Cards on a short week after winning @ Dallas on Monday, they get to face a rested 5-0 (4-1 ATS) Seattle team coming off a bye week. This will be Seattle’s 3rd road game of the season and their first 2 were 8 & 27 point wins. That puts Seattle at 2-0 ATS on the road this year and 13-3-2 ATS their last 18 games away from home. QB Russell Wilson is 72-54-7 ATS in his career in the regular season. Road team 9-1-1 ATS last 11 meetings. Seattle has owned the Cards on the road where they are 6-0-1 SU (5-1-1 ATS) their last 7 trips here including a 27-10 here last season. The Seahawks average margin of victory over that 7 game span was +14 points. We’ll take the better team in the better situation here. Lay it with Seattle.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 8:08 PM ET

As we mentioned in previous analysis involving this World Series, the betting markets love the Dodgers. That makes sense too because they are, of course, a great team. But, at the same time, the Rays are very strong as well and yet don't get near the respect from the betting markets. Keep in mind the Dodgers have lost each of the last two times they have made it to the World Series and now the Dodgers are off an epic collapse in last night's Game 4 after they were 1 strike away from a 3-1 series lead. Yes, Clayton Kershaw was great in Game 1 but he has a history of World Series struggles and now the pressure is on the Dodgers after blowing last night's game. Yes, Tyler Glasnow struggled with his command in Game 1 but he is very likely to be much better in his 2nd World Series appearance after working out the jitters. Additionally, Glasnow did strike out 8 while giving up just 3 hits in that first appearance so it wasn't all bad! Also, the Rays are 11-7 in this post-season and 2 of those losses came by a single run. That means if you had the Rays +1.5 in all their post-season games you would be 13-5 for a 72% win rate. Our computer math model is reflecting great potential for an upset and, if Rays fall short, a tight loss. That being said, the value is with laying a very fair price to have the 1.5 runs on your side with underdog TB in this one. Keep in mind, last night's game would have been a one run loss for TB were it not for the winning Rays hit when they were down to their last strike. Again, value is big here with the +1.5 runs on your side. Bet the Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 runs in evening action Sunday.

#470 ASA PLAY 8* ON New England -2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Great spot for the Patriots who played a poor game last week in a home loss vs Denver. It was New England’s 2nd straight loss after getting beat by KC in their previous game with QB Cam Newton out. With Belichick as the head coach, the Patriots are a perfect 9-0 SU since 2002 when coming off back to back SU losses. Last week wasn’t a great situation for the Pats as they had only been able to practice once in full pads in the previous 2 weeks to do COVID issues. They looked rusty, as expected, with 3 turnovers in the game. Now coming off the loss they have been able to get a full week of practice in and we expect a much better performance. Before their home loss to the Broncos, the Patriots won both of their home tilts by double digits. San Fran is off a huge, must win, home game vs the Rams. They had lost back to back home games to Philly & Miami and simply had to win that game last week. We expect a bit of a letdown here in their first road game since September 27th. Let’s not forget, the 49ers previous 2 wins this season before their upset last week came against the Giants and the Jets who have a combined 1-12 record and a combined point differential of -162 points. This look ahead line last week on this game was Patriots -5.5 and we’re getting them a full FG lower than that simply based on last week’s results. The value is absolutely on the Patriots who thrive in this spot and are now in a must win situation of their own with 3 of their next 4 games coming on the road. Team off a SU loss as a favorite (Pats) vs a team off a SU win as an underdog (Niners) is a very solid situational play in the NFL. We’ll take New England here.

#451 ASA PLAY 8* ON Cleveland -3 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Browns looked terrible in last week’s 38-7 loss @ Pittsburgh and we expect them to bounce back and play very well this week. Cleveland has lost @ Pitt and @ Baltimore and then beaten all of the teams they should have beaten (Browns favored) in every other game. Against everyone not named the Steelers or Ravens, this Cleveland offense has averaged 37 PPG with an average margin of victory of 10 points. One of those games was against this Bengal team in the 2nd game of the season, a game the Browns won 35-30. It wasn’t as close as the final score as Cleveland dominated averaging 7.5 YPP in the game to just 4.0 YPP for Cincy. The Bengals scored a TD with 43 seconds remaining in the game to cut the lead down to 5. Cincinnati ran 30 MORE offensive plays in the game and still lost by 5! The Bengal offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL in scoring, YPG, YPP, and 3rd down efficiency. We just don’t see them keeping up here. They also could be a bit demoralized after blowing a big lead vs the Colts last week in a 31-27 loss. Again they were dominated on the stat sheet in that game allowing Indy 7.2 YPP while gaining just 5.5. Their lone win this year was against Jacksonville, who along with the Jets, are rated as the 2 worst teams in the NFL. While Cleveland QB Mayfield had a rib injury, we expect him to play and even if not, we’re fine with veteran Case Keenum at the helm. Cincy’s already struggling offense will be without one of it’s top weapons as RB Mixon has been ruled out with an injury. The Browns are the much better team in this match up and the situation is very good with them coming off a blowout loss. Lay the small number.

#461 ASA PLAY 8* ON Carolina +7 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We’re simply not sold on the Saints as one of the top teams in the NFL. They’re laying a full TD here and they’ve won only one game this year by 7 or more. That was a game vs Tampa (won by 9) in which the Bucs dominated the stats but had turnover problems including a Tom Brady pick 6. They have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games with their only pointspread win during that stretch coming at Detroit winning by 5 as a 3-point favorite. In their most recent game, New Orleans fell behind by 17 points at home to the Chargers and had to rally back for an OT win. They’ll also be without both starting WR’s with Sanders and Thomas on the shelf. Carolina is coming off a home loss to the Bears last week. Turnovers were a huge problem as the Panthers had 3 to Chicago’s 1. Carolina actually outgained the Bears 303 to 261 and only had to punt once the entire game (Bears punted 4 times). The Cats have a solid +0.7 YPP differential on the season which is actually better than the Saints who are +0.5. The Panthers have already won 3 games outright this season as an underdog and QB Bridgewater has been a huge money maker covering 30 of his 40 starts in his NFL career (75%). We think this one goes to the wire and we’ll take the points.

#386 ASA PLAY 7* ON Minnesota +3 over Michigan, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We think the line value is with the Gophers in this game. We have this game power rated to a pick-em. Michigan gets the 3 point bump because of their name value I guess. The Wolverines offense is a complete unknown coming into the season and will be a work in progress. Their new starting QB Milton has thrown 11 passes in his college career. He’ll be operating behind a brand new offensive line that lost 4 of 5 starters from last season. They also lost their top 2 WR’s Black and Collins. Minnesota, on the other hand, is one of the most experienced offenses in college football. They averaged 34 PPG last year and bring back nearly everyone including QB Morgan who led the Big 10 in passing YPG last season. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line that brings everyone back and throwing to one of the best WR in the country in Bateman. Both defenses have some question marks this season and while we expect Michigan to be solid on that side of the ball as they always are, let’s not forget this Minnesota defense finished 10th nationally in total defense last year. Again, they have to replace some key players on that side of the ball but so do the Wolverines. Entering the season we’d give Michigan an edge defensively but Minnesota a much larger edge on offense. Let’s also not forget that Minnesota was 11-2 last year and beat the 2nd place team from the Big 10 East (Penn State) along with Auburn in their bowl game. They should feel a bit disrespected being a home underdog in their season opener after their successful run last year. Speaking of home underdog, Minnesota has fallen into that role 36 times since 2007 and they are a money making 23-13 ATS in that spot. We like Minnesota here vs a Michigan team we feel is overrated coming into the season.

#318 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Pittsburgh +10 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - In our opinion, Notre Dame is vastly overvalued at this point of the season due to their perfect 4-0 record. However, they haven’t beaten a single team that currently has a winning record and the combined record of the 4 teams they’ve played is 5-16. Last week they played host to Louisville, who in our power ratings is the best team the Irish have faced, and ND escaped with a 12-7 win. The Irish were held to just 4.9 YPP vs a Louisville team that ranks 32nd nationally in total defense (out of 77). The Notre Dame offense struggled with the Cards last week and now face, by far, the best defense they’ve seen this year as Pitt ranks 7th nationally in total defense. On top of that, ND relies heavily on their running game averaging 45 carries per game (12th most in the country) and Pitt’s defense ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing only 61 YPG. The Panthers are much better than their 3-3 record. They’ve lost 3 straight games by a combined 14 points. Last week they played @ Miami and lost 31-19 but the yardage was close (Pitt outgained by 30 yards) and the defense played very well holding a potent Cane offense to just 331 total yards. Miami did score 31 points but 3 of their TD drives started on Pittsburgh’s half of the field due to turnovers and the Panthers getting shut out on downs. They might be without starting QB Pickett again this week (although he has not been ruled out) but his backup Yellen got his feet wet last week throwing for 277 yards vs Miami. We have Pitt rated about dead even with Louisville so this will be the best team the Irish have played (along with the Cards) AND their first road game of the season. These two programs have faced off 12 times since 2002 with the margin of victory being 8 or less in 10 of those games. Pitt will give Notre Dame all they can handle here and we grab the generous points siding with the home dog.

#346 ASA PLAY 8* ON Texas Longhorns -9.5 over Baylor Bears, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Kansas is 0-4 this season and has lost those 4 games by an average margin of defeat of 28 points. What does that have to do with this play? Well the only win Baylor has came against the Jayhawks in their first game of the season. Baylor's only other game was a loss at West Virginia. Though that was a tight loss (in double OT) for the Bears, they were fortunate they were even in the game. Baylor benefited from being +2 in turnovers in that game and they only had 256 yards of offense in that one! The Bears came into this season with a lot of issues and have been dealing with Covid complications too and that is why they have played only 2 games so far this year! Considering all the pandemic-related issues and the fact the Bears have a new coach this has already been a challenging season for Baylor and they are only two games into it. Things get much tougher this week as the Bears and Horns are rivals and UT is out for revenge after losing last year's game by a two TD margin despite the yardage being equal. Texas is the much better team in this year's match-up and they will roll at home. The Longhorns have a big edge here as they have played 4 games already so they have an edge of 2 extra games under their belts. Also, the situation is ideal as they were off last week but that followed back to back tight losses to TCU and Oklahoma. The Longhorns are chomping at the bit to get back on the field. While their defense has been an issue this season, the UT offense has been nearly unstoppable. The Horns are an efficient offense that plays fast and they are averaging 49.5 points per game this season. Even taking OT points out of the equation, the Longhorns are averaging 44.2 points per game this year. The Bear simply won't be able to keep up. Yes the Texas defense has been a weakness this season but they allowed just 18 points and 345 yards per game in their two home games. They will respond here at home and take advantage of a struggling Bears offense in this one. The Longhorns have had one two-game losing streak each of the last 3 seasons. The streak never reached 3 in any of the 3 seasons. The result was a 3-0 mark with an average margin of victory of 21 points. Per our computer math model, the Longhorns have a high probability of winning this game by a margin of 2 to 3 touchdowns. Lay the points and look for a home blowout in this Saturday afternoon Big 12 match-up.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 8:08 PM ET

As we mentioned in previous analysis involving this World Series, the betting markets love the Dodgers.  That makes sense too because they are, of course, a great team.  But, at the same time, the Rays are very strong as well and yet don't get near the respect from the betting markets.  Keep in mind the Dodgers have lost each of the last two times they have made it to the World Series and now Walker Buehler gets the start here and he has been dealing with blister issues which has changed his repertoire of available pitches to an extent.  Of course Tampa Bay is aware of this and plus they got some key hitters back on track in their resounding Game 2 win on Wednesday.  Now on Friday the Rays turn to Charlie Morton on the mound and he has been fantastic in this post-season and in post-season appearances ever since he came to Tampa Bay.  He is very undervalued in this spot.  Also, the Rays are 10-6 in this post-season and 2 of those losses came by a single run.  That means if you had the Rays +1.5 in all their post-season games you would be 12-4 for a 75% win rate.  Our computer math model is reflecting great potential for an upset and, if Rays fall short, a tight loss.  That being said, the value is with laying a very fair price to have the 1.5 runs on your side with underdog TB in this one.  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 runs in evening action Friday.

#310 ASA PLAY 8* ON UAB Blazers (+) over Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, Friday at 8 PM ET - Earlier this week UAB was as much as a 3 point favorite. Now the Blazers are a 3 point dog. This is a fantastic value especially when you consider that UAB is on a 21-0 SU run in home games! The Blazers are battle-tested already as they had to face Miami this season. As you would expect, UAB lost that game by double digits but they are 4-0 SU in their other games. In those 4 victories the Blazers are averaging 36.3 points per game. In their last 3 games, UAB has allowed an average of only 12.3 points per game. Also, though they struggled against Miami (as expected), the Blazers have allowed only 285 yards per game in their other 4 games. Their defense is playing well, their offense is playing with confidence with scoring 37 points or more in 3 of their 4 victories and now they are at home where they also have plenty of confidence due to their long-term success here! Louisiana Lafayette still seems to be overvalued from their surprising upset of Iowa State earlier this season. The Ragin' Cajuns are actually 0-3 ATS since that win as 2 of their victories since then have come by 3 or less points. Now UL-Lafayette is off a loss to Coastal Carolina as they enter this game. The Ragin' Cajuns defense just does not seem to be on the same level as last year. Ever since the upset of the Cyclones in Week 1, ULL has been gashed and is giving up an average of 427 yards per game. Per our computer math model, Louisiana Lafayette will struggle to stop the balanced offensive attack of UAB as RB Brown delivers a big game for the Blazers. Couple that with a strong game from the Alabama-Birmingham defense, this match-up is set to go very well for the host! This one has the makings of a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with UAB

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia -4.5 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Watching the Eagles their last 2 games, it looks to us like Philly is starting to round into form despite their 1-4-1 record. The last 2 Sundays they’ve stood toe to toe with 2 of the best teams in the NFL, Pittsburgh & Baltimore. They outgained the Steelers on a yards per play basis and trailed by just 2 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining (lost 38-29). Last week they came from behind and had a chance to tie Baltimore with under 2:00 minutes remaining but the Eagles 2-point conversion was not successful and they lost 30-28. They also outgained the Ravens on a YPP basis in that game. This offense has turned the corner scoring 28 & 29 points vs 2 of the top defenses in the NFL the last 2 weeks. The defense already ranks in the top 10 in YPP allowed and we have a feeling this team is close to turning the corner. The Giants won last week vs Washington to pick up their first win of the season, but they didn’t look great doing it. Washington actually had nearly 100 more total yards, more first downs, and a time of possession edge in the game. NY’s offense has been flat out bad all season, with the exception of their game @ Dallas and we all know how bad the Cowboy defense is right now. If you throw that game out the window, the Giants have scored a grand total of 7 TD’s in their other 5 games. That’s it. The defense is very solid but when you have an offense that only scores 13 PPG (again, minus the Cowboy game) that puts a lot of pressure on the defense. With the way Philly has put points on the board the last few weeks, we think they’ll have success here. We can’t say the same for the NYG offense. Philly was laying almost double digits here vs New York last year (-9.5) and now were getting them at just -4.5. Lay it was we expect the Eagles to win by at least a TD.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #306

Arkansas State is off a tight 7-point win last Thursday but allowed 52 points in that game. In fact, in each of their last two games against FBS level opponents, the Red Wolves have allowed 52 points each time. That is not going to cut it against a Mountaineers team that is allowing just 19.3 points per game so far this season. Although this is a big number on this game, Appalachian State is the class of the Sun Belt Conference and 8 of their 11 regular season wins last year came by a margin of 14 or more points. The Mountaineers also won their bowl game by 14 points. For the Red Wolves, 2 of their 3 losses in SBC action came by a margin of 14 or more points. Their two non-conference defeats were by an average margin of 31 points last season. Arkansas State has a solid offense but a sieve-like defense. These teams did not meet last season but they did meet the year before. Even though that game was at Arkansas State, the Mountaineers rolled to a 35-9 win. Our computer math model is calling for an equally impressive margin of victory in the rematch here in 2020. Appalachian State allowed 20 points per game last season and their respectable defense is on a similar trajectory already this season. Arkansas State, on the other hand, allowed 34.3 ppg last season and is looking even worse this season with allowing an average of 39.8 points per game even though that included a game against an FCS school too! This one gets ugly as the Mountaineers crush the Red Wolves. Lay the big points with Appalachian State in what should be a massive home blowout in evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 8:09 PM ET

The betting markets love the Dodgers.  That makes sense too because they are, of course, a great team.  But, at the same time, the Rays are very strong as well and yet don't get near the respect from the betting markets.  Keep in mind the Dodgers have lost each of the last two times they have made it to the World Series and Clayton Kershaw certainly has his hand in some of those struggles. Now he enters this one not 100% healthy in our opinion.  In his first start of the post-season he absolutely dominated the Brewers with 13 strikeouts in an 8-inning gem.  However, since then Kershaw has dealt with some back spasm issues and he has allowed 7 earned runs on 13 hits (including 3 homers) in his last 11 innings.  The Rays will take advantage here and the hard-throwing Tyler Glasnow could give the Dodgers some trouble.  He has allowed only 11 hits in his last 13 and 1 / 3 innings and has piled up 25 strikeouts in his 19 and 1 / 3 innings in this post-season.  The Rays are 9-5 in this post-season and 2 of those losses came by a single run.  That means if you had the Rays +1.5 in all their post-season games you would be 11-3 for a 79% win rate.  Our computer math model is reflecting great potential for an upset and, if Rays fall short, a tight loss.  That being said, the value is with laying a very small price to have the 1.5 runs on your side with underdog TB in this one.  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday.

#276 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +1.5 over Arizona, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This is an overreaction to the Dak Prescott injury along with the Cowboy struggles to date. The Cardinals should not be favored in this match up. First of all, it Arizona’s 3rd straight road game so a tough spot for them. The were smoked at Carolina two weeks ago and then beat the terrible Jets in New York last week. They’ve also lost to the Lions this year which gave Detroit their only win of the season. This is not a team that should be laying points on the road unless they are playing the Jets. Dallas lost Prescott in the 2nd half last week and veteran Andy Dalton, possibly the best back up on the league, came in and led the Cowboys to 13 points in his 5 possessions as they rallied to top the Giants. Dalton is simply not a huge drop off from Prescott. They guy has almost 32,000 passing yards and over 200 TD’s in his career. He is not a full 4 points drop off from Dak as this line was Dallas -3 leading into last week and now they are underdogs. We anticipate the Cowboys rally behind Dalton and play well in their first full game without Dak at QB. Two of Arizona’s wins came over Washington and the Jets who are 1-9 combined. Their other win was in the season opener over the Niners in a game that looked like a great win but in hindsight with San Fran’s struggles it wasn’t look all that impressive. The Boys have just a 2-3 record but their 3 losses have come at the hands of Seattle, LA Rams, and Cleveland who have a combined 13-2 record. Cowboys may get some key players back defensively including their starting MLB Vander Esch. Offensively they rank #1 in the NFL in YPG and 3rd in YPP and we expect them to continue to roll with Dalton at QB. We’ll take advantage of this bad line and take Dallas at home.

#256 ASA PLAY 8* ON Minnesota -4 over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - These are two teams with similar record (Minnesota 1-4 / Atlanta 0-5) but they are heading in opposite directions.  Minnesota is actually playing pretty well, especially on offense.  Their last 3 games including a 1-point loss vs Tennessee (a game the Vikes led for much of), a win at Houston, and a tight loss @ Seattle in a game they led with under 30 seconds left.  So their last 2 losses each came by a single poing vs two teams that are currently undefeated.  We’ve been impressed with their effort and resolve despite their record.  Atlanta is the opposite.  They are 0-5 and playing like an 0-5 team right now.  Their defense stinks, ranking 31st in both YPG allowed and YPP allowed.  They’ve allowed at least 30 points in 4 of their 5 games so if their offense isn’t clicking this team is in trouble.  They definitely haven’t been clicking as of late that’s for sure.  They faced a Green Bay defense that ranks 29th in efficiency and a Carolina defense that ranks 23rd in efficiency that last 2 weeks and scored just 16 points in each.  QB Matt Ryan hasn’t thrown a TD pass since September 28th.  Minnesota’s offense is clicking and will put up plenty of points here.  We don’t think Atlanta can keep up.  On top of that, despite being winless the Falcons have other distractions as well including their head coach getting fired and getting their facility closed this week due to a positive COVID test in the organization.  Not only is Minnesota playing as well as they have all season, Vikes are 45-18 ATS at home vs non-division opponents & 19-4-1 ATS as non-divisional home favorites.  Minny wins this by at least a TD.

#257 ASA PLAY 8* ON Houston +3.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Titans are 4-0 on the season but just 1-3 ATS and they have been outgained by 32 YPG on the season.  They’ve had 3 games go to the wire and they could easily have a few more losses.  Before beating Buffalo handily on Tuesday, the Titans wins came by 2, 3, and 1 points vs Denver, Jacksonville, and Minnesota who have a combined 3-11 record.  Now back to their win on Tuesday night.  They topped Buffalo 42-16 in what looked like a blowout if you simply looked at the final score.  The fact is the Bills actually outgained Tennessee in the game but turned the ball over 3 times which directly led to half of the Titans points (21).  Let’s also not forget Tennessee had a bunch of time off due to COVID quarantines and have practiced very little in the last 2 weeks.  Now they played on a Tuesday and have a very short week here.  We think that catches up to them in this game.  Houston played the toughest schedule in the NFL through their first 3 weeks losing to KC, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  They then lost to a Minnesota team that is really starting to come around and is better than their record.  O’Brien then got canned and this team responded last week with an easy win over Jacksonville 30-14.  The Texans rushed for 129 yards and averaged 8.4 yards per play in that game so their offense looks like they’ve gotten back on track.  Their running game should keep rolling here vs a Tennessee defense that ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 5.8 YPC.  Houston is 12-5-1 ATS the last 18 in this series and we think they have a great shot at the outright win here.  Take the points.

#112 ASA PLAY 8* ON Virginia Tech -11.5 over Boston College, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We love the rushing disparity in this game which is heavily in favor of Va Tech. The Hokies are 12th nationally in total offense and their running game has been fantastic averaging 299 YPG which is good for 3rd nationally behind only 2 run only option teams (Air Force & Army). BC, on the other hand, has had a long, proud tradition of being able to run the ball and that’s is now what is happening this year. Their biggest output on the ground this season was 87 yards vs Texas State and they currently rank 74th out of 76 teams running the ball for only 60 YPG. As good as their running game has been, we now expect their passing game to take off as well with starting QB Hooker back in the line up. He was out the first 3 games of the season and returned last week @ UNC. The Hokies are coming off their first loss of the season @ North Carolina. Down 35-10 at half, Hooker stepped in for Burmeister, who had been starting due to the Hooker injury, and he led them to 31 second half points scoring on 5 of their 6 possessions. Hooker will be starting here and we look for the offensive to be very good vs BC. VT is also starting to get healthy as they have dealt with numerous Covid quarantines over the first few games and they are still 2-1 despite that. In fact, in their opening 2 wins over NC State and Duke, the Hokies had 20+ players in quarantine that were unable to play and they still came out with W’s. BC is 3-1 but they have not played a road game since September 19th. They are off a huge home win last week as they beat Pitt 31-30 in OT when the Panther placekicker missed an extra point in overtime. Despite their 3-1 record, the Eagles are getting outgained on the season. A team that has a solid record but is getting outgained on a regular basis, plus has no running game is a team that we will most often look to fade. Tech’s offense is now at full strength and we saw a glimpse of what it can do last week in the 2nd half vs a very good North Carolina team. Va Tech was upset @ BC last year 35-28 and had 5 turnovers in that game. A little extra motivation for Saturday. We’re going to lay the points here.

#151 ASA PLAY 8* ON Army Black Knights -7.5 over UTSA Roadrunners, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - Last year Army was a 17 point favorite over UTSA and now they are close to just a TD favorite in this year's match-up. This has a lot to do with the Black Knights coming off an unimpressive win over The Citadel last week while the Roadrunners are off an impressive effort at BYU. However, the reality is that all last week's results did was create incredible line value this week. The reason that Army struggled with The Citadel is because the Bulldogs are also an option team and so they are used to seeing it all the time and were able to slow down the Black Knights. Now enter a UTSA defense that rarely sees it plus is coming off a road trip to Utah. This is not a good situation for the Roadrunners and last season Army ran for 340 yards against UTSA. This season Army is averaging 310 rushing yards per game. On defense the Black Knights have been great against the run as they have allowed only 83 rushing yards per game. UTSA managed only 72 yards on the ground at BYU last week. It is tough to win when you lose the rushing stats by a huge margin and that is the projection here per our computer math model. Army dominates the ground game and the scoreboard. The Roadrunners might seem inviting as a home dog but they have actually only covered 3 of the last 9 times they have been in that role. Also, looking at common opponents this season, Army destroyed Middle Tennessee 42-0. That is the same Blue Raiders team that UTSA faced a few weeks ago and only beat 37-35. Against FBS teams, the Runners have allowed 32.8 points per game. Army, in their games against FBS opponents, have allowed just 10.3 points per game. This one has the makings of a road rout and we're laying the points with Army

#124 ASA PLAY 8* ON South Carolina +3 over Auburn, Saturday at 12 Noon ET - We were on Auburn last week and lost as they jumped out to a 17-0 lead but struggled defensively vs Arkansas from that point on. After the Tigers grabbed the 17-0 lead, their defense allowed the Razorbacks to score points on 5 of their final 6 possessions to keep it close in Auburn’s 30-28 win. It was a perfect spot to play on the Tigers coming off an embarrassing 6-point effort vs Georgia while Arkansas was coming off a huge win @ Miss State, breaking their 20 game SEC losing streak. We weren’t at all impressed with the way Auburn responded giving up 437 yards to an offense that came in averaging 277.5 yards per game and had not topped 280 yards in either of their first 2 games, including their win over Mississippi State. South Carolina, on the other hand, has impressed us. They opened the season facing ranked opponents on back to back weeks. They lost by 4 points @ home vs Tennessee in a game the Vols scored a defensive TD which turned out to be the difference in the game. Then @ Florida they lost their 2nd game of the season but played fairly well keeping the yardage near even vs a potent Florida offense. We though their defense played very well in that game, despite allowing 38 points, they held the Gators to just 348 total yards. That’s a Florida offense that is averaging 522 YPG in their other two contests this year vs Texas A&M and Ole Miss. The Gamecocks finally were able to take a step down in competition last week and they blasted Vandy 41-7 on the road. Now back at home getting points is a great spot for South Carolina in our opinion. Despite their 2-1 record Auburn is getting outgained by 92 YPG on the season. The Gamecocks, on the other hand, are outgaining their opponents by 58 YPG and remember they’ve faced 2 ranked opponents already this year. SC also has a very good rush defense allowing just 92 YPG and Auburn relies heavily on running the ball. Auburn has a number of key players questionable for this game as well and we simply like the spot for the home dog. Take the points.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Brigham Young Cougars (-) over Houston Cougars, Friday at 9:30 PM ET: Game #109

Houston finally played a game after many cancellations and postponements early this season.  Even though Houston impressed in that season opening victory, they played a Tulane team that has struggled badly on defense early this season.  Now Houston has to face a BYU team that has absolutely been locked in on defense early this season.  Brigham Young has allowed an average of only 11 points per game in their 4 games this season.  On that note, this is another big edge for BYU in this match-up as they have played 4 games already this season and have had plenty of time to make adjustments on both sides of the ball.  Keep in mind Houston has played just one game and they take a big step up in terms of level of competition this week as they face a ranked BYU team.  Brigham Young is averaging 44 points per game and is going to test the Houston defense in a way that Tulane was unable to.  BYU is led by QB Zach Wilson who has thrown for 1,241 yds with an 81% completion rate and a 8-1 TD-INT ratio.  Wilson also has 6 rushing touchdowns too.  Per our computer math model this game may be close early but BYU eventually wears down Houston and wins this game by a double digit margin.  Lay the points with Brigham Young in what should be a road rout in late night action Friday.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Arkansas State Red Wolves (-) over Georgia State Panthers, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #106

This line opened up at a -5.5 in many books and there was even a -6 out there earlier this week.  Now the line has dropped to a solid -3 as of Thursday morning and our computer math model forecasts a solid home win here and we won't hesitate to get involved.  Georgia State has played only 2 games this season.  With Arkansas State having 4 games under their belt the Red Wolves actually hold an edge even though they are on short rest here.  In this pandemic-impacted season teams with more practices, more game time, etc. have an edge and that applies to the Red Wolves in this one.  Not only that, Arkansas State had won 5 straight meetings before Georgia State won last year's game at home.  That was the 2nd straight game in which the home team won by a double digit margin and that is the forecast here per our computer math modeling - Red Wolves by 10+ points!  As a home favorite in SBC action, Arkansas State is on a 15-4 ATS run.  The Red Wolves are averaging 343 passing yards per game and the Panthers run game (lost some key personnel from last season) won't be able to trade scores with them in this one as they just can't keep up.  Lay the points with Arkansas State in what should be a home blowout in evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #170

Both teams are undefeated on the season but Louisiana has played the tougher schedule.  While UL-Lafayette defeated Iowa State by a 17-point margin, Coastal Carolina played Kansas from the Big 12.  The Cyclones are projected to be one of the better teams in the Big 12 this season (and went to a bowl last year and faced Notre Dame) while the Jayhawks are off a 3-9 season and have been struggling annually for many years.  Additionally, the Ragin' Cajuns' other two games were against fellow Sun Belt foes while only 1 of Coastal Carolina's other two games were.  The other one was against an FCS school!  Again, big difference in strength of schedule between these two undefeated teams.  Additionally, one could argue that Coastal Carolina has revenge here from last year's 48-7 beating at the hands of the Cajuns.  However, Louisiana did lose the prior season's match-up when these teams met at Lafayette and a little home loss revenge is on order here.  Coming into this season the Ragin' Cajuns were projected to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt while Coastal Carolina was projected to be one of the worst.  The Chanticleers offense has surprised early this season but this will be a tough test for them here and the Ragin' Cajuns do have the better defense.  Louisiana has allowed 18 points or less in 2 of their 3 games and that is despite facing the tougher schedule.  We are aware of UL-Lafayette having some injury issues and Covid-related issues but those are still not enough to justify the low number posted on this game.  Per our computer math model, the Ragin' Cajuns win this one by at least a 2 TD margin.  Lay the points with UL-Lafayette in what should be a home blowout in evening action

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 6:05 PM ET

The Braves pounded out 10 hits yesterday but 7 of them came from Freeman, Markakis, and Albies. Why does that matter? We are aware that Albies has had amazing success in his 4 at bats versus lefties in this post-season but he is a switch-hitter that hit only .214 against lefties in the regular season. As for Freeman and Markakis, they are both left-handed batters. The starter for the Dodgers this evening is Julio Urias and the southpaw held lefties to a .137 batting average in the regular season this year and a .198 batting average in the 2019 regular season. Urias is also a guy with a lot of post-season experience and he was great against the Braves in the regular season last year. In terms of post-season experience, Urias is now 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last 18 innings spanning the last 3 playoff years combined! He rates a huge edge over the Braves Kyle Wright in this one. Yes, Wright was successful in his first-ever playoff start but it came against the Marlins in the divisional round. Wright was in major trouble in the early innings but managed to escape the jams each time. He gave up a lot of hard-hit outs. Not only did Wright benefit from some luck and some solid defense, his Braves teammates then staked him to an early big lead and it is much easier to pitch when you have a 4-run (or more!) lead for sure. That said, Wright will quickly be brought back down to earth by this Dodgers lineup that nearly rallied for the huge comeback win against the Braves bullpen late in yesterday's game. Do not lose sight of the fact that Wright is 2-7 with a 6.22 ERA in his MLB career and that includes his 19 regular season appearances (12 starts). This is a very tough spot for him and it is why the Dodgers are such a big money line favorite here as they look to respond in this 0-2 series hole! Look for them to do just that and, per our computer math model, Los Angeles wins this one by multiple runs and the value play (-120 range) is with laying the 1.5 runs on the run line in this one. The Dodgers haven't lost 3 straight games since August of 2019! Since that time LA has gone 5-0 when entering a game on a losing streak of 2 games and only 1 of the 5 wins came by less than a 2-run margin. In fact, the Dodgers 43 wins this year in the regular season featured 36 (or 84%) by a margin of 2 or more runs! They have continued that 80% trend in the post-season as 4 of their 5 wins have come by at least 2 runs in these playoffs. For the Braves, 19 of their 25 losses (76%) in the regular season came by 2 or more runs. Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday.

#477 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Chargers +8 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re still not sold on this Saints team being one of the best in the NFL.  Especially with their current injury concerns at WR, DB, and on the offensive line.  Their wins have come against Tampa, where they were outgained but benefitted from 3 Buc turnovers including a pick 6, and Detroit.  Their game last week @ Detroit they fell down 14-0, came back to take a lead and barely held on 35-29.  Offensively the Saints were only able to put up 5.7 YPP last week vs a Detroit defense that has allowed 6.2 YPP this season.  We think, because they have a 1-3 record, the Chargers are a bit undervalued right now.  They’ve lost 3 straight games that have gone to the wire.  They played KC as tough as anyone over the last year as they led the entire game but lost in OT.  Last week they led Tampa on the road 24-7 but Brady pulled his comeback magic and rallied the Bucs for a win.  Starting QB Herbert has been very impressive to date with a completion rate of 72% while averaging over 300 YPG passing.  The Bolts have held leads in the 4th quarter in 3 of their 4 games this year and their defense has been solid holding 3 of their 4 opponents to 23 points or less including limiting KC to 20 points in regulation.  This is a tough team to pull away from and we expect a tight game.  The Chargers are a money making 12-4-3 ATS their last 19 non-division road games under head coach Anthony Lynn.  The Saints have covered just 4 of their last 14 games as a home favorite.  Undervalued vs Overvalued here.  Take the points. 

#475 ASA PLAY 8* ON Minnesota +7 over Seattle, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - We like what we saw from Minnesota last week.  They were in a terrible spot and came out and played hard and picked up a win @ Houston.  That showed us that despite their 1-3 record, they are still engaged.  The Vikes were coming off a game in which they led the Titans for much of the game but lost 31-30 on a late FG.  After that devastating loss they were then locked out of their facility until Thursday of that week due to the Titans COVID outbreak.  So almost no practice for Minnesota heading into their game @ Houston.  Their 31-23 win was impressive as they posted over 400 yards including 162 on the ground.  They have now scored 30+ points in every game except @ Indy who currently has the top defense in the NFL.  They will be able to move the ball here vs a Seattle defense that ranks dead last in total defense and dead last in passing defense.  It’s really tough to keep winning games with a defense like that.  The Seahawks are 4-0 but 3 of their games have come down to the wire with margins of 5, 7, 8 points.  The trailed Dallas at home with under 2:00 minutes remaining and held New England at the 1 yard line as time expired when a Pats TD would have won the game for them.  The Hawks are getting outgained by 60 YPG and shouldn’t be laying a full TD in this spot.  Minnesota’s offense can keep up here and we envision another Seattle game that is in doubt in the final minutes.  Take the points.

#466 ASA PLAY 8* ON Pittsburgh -7 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Pittsburgh is rested and healthy coming off an unplanned bye last week with their game @ Tennessee getting cancelled. Philly is the opposite. The Eagles are as banged up as any team in the NFL. They have cluster injuries on the offensive line, in the defensive backfield and at WR. If there is one position you do not want to have injuries when facing Pittsburgh, it would be the O Line. The Steelers defense is fantastic as a whole, but their best strength would be getting to the QB. They rank #1 in the NFL in sacks per game (5) and sack percentage (12.3%). It’s definitely not a fluke as they led the league in both categories last year as well. They face an injured Philly line that has allowed 3.5 sacks per game which is 30th in the NFL. While Pittsburgh had a bye, the Eagles picked up their first win last week @ SF in upset fashion as they were 8.5 point underdogs. However, if there is a team that is as banged up as Philly, it’s San Fran. They went with QB Mullens with Garoppolo on the shelf. He played so poorly (threw 2 picks) the Niners had to bring in 3rd string Beathard to try and jumpstart the offense. While the Eagles picked up the 25-20 win, their first of the season, they were dominated in the stats. The 49ers rolled up 417 total yards on 6.0 YPP while holding Philadelphia to 267 yards on just 4.5 YPP. Turnovers were the difference as the Niners had 3 - one pick 6, an int at the Philly 14, and a fumble that led to Eagle TD. The fact is the Eagle offense has been bad this year. They are averaging 4.5 YPP on the season which is THE WORST in the NFL. Now they are on the road for the 2nd straight week facing one of the top stop units in the NFL. Pittsburgh ranks #1 in rush defense allowing only 54 YPG, #2 in total defense, and #5 in scoring defense. Philly won’t be able to run the ball here making them one dimensional. That’s a recipe for disaster vs Pitt’s ferocious pass rush. Wentz will be under constant pressure in this game. Offensively the 3-0 Steelers have scored at least 26 points in all 3 games this season. That’s probably all it will take here as we don’t see Philly getting out of the teens in this game. Lay it with the Steelers.

#358 ASA PLAY 8* ON Western Kentucky +7 over Marshall, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET At 11 AM Pacific Time on Sunday, one of the first sportsbooks in Vegas to put out numbers on this Saturday college football card hung a -2 on Marshall. The Thundering Herd were quickly bet up to a -6.5 within the first 24 hours at that sportsbook and now are up to a full -7 across the board as of Friday (a few are at +7.5). We like to look for spots like this when fading over-valued road favorites and won't hesitate to step in big on this one. The Hilltoppers have covered 6 straight match-ups with the Thundering Herd. Even though Marshall has won each of the last 3 meetings straight up, all 3 victories came by 7 or less points and this one will too per our computer math modeling. The Hilltoppers haven't forgotten last season's game in which they led 23-7 in the 3rd quarter but ended up losing the game when Marshall made a 51 yard field goal on the final play of the game! The Thundering Herd haven't played in 3 weeks and that was an outright upset of Appalachian State. We like fading teams off outright wins as dogs and plus Marshall has had a little too much time between games and will also be playing their first road game of this season. The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, are playing their 4th game in 5 weeks but had a bye two weeks ago. WKU also enters this game off their first win of the season but it was a non-covering win. Perfect spot to back the Toppers here as they also want to atone for losing their only home game so far this season in a disappointing performance as a host to Liberty. The Hilltoppers did return a lot of experience from last season's team and last week's win at Middle Tennessee is a confidence booster for this team. Western Kentucky coach Helton has covered 6 of the last 8 times he has been an underdog and five of those were outright upset wins! Marshall has failed to cover 22 of the last 32 times they have been a favorite. Considering the above factors, and the line movement to a full +7, we're happy to bet the revenge-minded dog in this one. This one has the makings of a home upset and we're grabbing the points with Western Kentucky

#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Auburn -13.5 over Arkansas, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

Well Arkansas finally did it.  They broke their 20 game SEC losing streak last week by upsetting Mississippi State 21-14 as a 16.5 point underdog.  A couple of quick points about that game.  First of all, they caught MSU off a monumental upset @ LSU so no doubt the Bulldogs weren’t completely focused on the Razorbacks who last won an SEC game in 2017 and that win was by just 1 point!  Secondly, Arkansas was very fortunate to win last week as they were dominated in the stat sheet.  The Bulldogs were +7 first downs and outgained the Razors 400 to 275.  The problem for MSU was their FOUR turnovers.  The first one set the tone for the upset as Arky returned a pick 6 just a few minutes into the game to take a 7-0 lead.  Not only did the Dogs cough it up 4 times, they were also shut out on downs twice deep inside Arkansas territory at the 13 & 7 yard line.  The Dogs also lost their top RB Hill (1350 yards last year) in the first quarter to an injury.  Needless to say, a lot of things had to fall into place for Arky to pick up their first win in conference play in nearly 3 years and that’s exactly what happened.  Now they are on the road again this week facing an extra motivated Auburn team.  That’s because after beating a very solid Kentucky team here in week 1 by a final of 29-13, they were dominated @ Georgia last week.  They went into the game as a 7.5 point dog and felt they could pull the upset.  Didn’t happen as the Dawgs pushed them around which we look at as a wake up call for the Tigers.  After the game Auburn head coach Malzahn stated, “We really got whipped in all 3 phases.  We got outcoached.”  We’re pretty sure this Auburn team will be more than ready this week.  You can also count on them trying to put as many points on the board as possible.  We don’t think there will be any backing off with a lead here coming off a loss and the fact that Auburn’s new OC Morris was the head coach at Arkansas last year and got canned.  He’ll be motivated as well.  This situation looks very similar to the last few seasons when Auburn was coming off a tough loss and pasted Arkansas the following week.  Last year the Tigers lost at Florida and then beat the Razorbacks 51-10 just one week later.  In 2018, they were coming off a tight 1-point loss vs LSU and proceeded to pound Arkansas 34-3 the following Saturday.  The Razors are happy to be 1-1 but their offense will have big problems here vs a top notch Auburn defense.  Arkansas currently averages just 277 YPG which ranks 70th out of 74 current teams playing & 15.5 PPG which includes last week’s pick 6.  If you take that away, the offense has scored just 24 points in 2 games this year.  We love the value here as well.  We have this game power rated at Auburn -17.5.  We could argue it should be even higher.  These teams both played UGA and Arkansas was +27.5 at home while Auburn was +7.5 on the road.  Just based on that alone, with no home field factored in whatsoever, it tells us Auburn should be a 20 point favorite on a neutral field.  The weather calls for some rain, however the winds shouldn’t be bad at 10-12 MPH.  We like Auburn to roll up a big home win on Saturday and getting this under 2 TD’s is a steal.

#311 ASA PLAY 8* ON Pittsburgh -6 over Boston College, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

Pitt should be in an angry mood here after losing at home to NC State as a 14 point favorite.  Looking at the stat sheet, you’d have no idea how Pitt lost that game.  The Panthers rolled up over 500 total yards and held the Wolfpack to 398.  NC State scored a TD with just 23 seconds remaining in the game to pull the 30-29 upset.  Pitt’s defense is outstanding.  They rank #3 nationally in total defense allowing just 232 YPG.  Their rush defense is a brick wall as they’ve allowed just 57 YPG on the ground through their first 4 games, good for 2nd nationally.  Now they are facing a BC team that has been predominantly a running team over the last few years but this season they are only putting up 70 YPG on the ground which ranks them 71st out of 74 teams currently playing.  In other words, the Eagles will most likely be one dimensional here with very little success on the ground.  That’s never good for an offense.   BC comes in with a 2-1 record but they are fortunate to be in that situation.  They upset Duke in their first game thanks to the Blue Devils 5 turnovers.  Duke has also gone on to lose every game this season (0-4 record) so that win might not be all that impressive in hindsight.  BC then played host to Texas State and the Eagles barely squeaked out a 24-21 win as a 17 point favorite.  TSU actually outgained the Eagles in that game and led 21-7 late in the 3rd quarter before BC scored the final 17 points including the game winning FG with just 3 seconds remaining.  Last week BC was all in at home vs a very solid, and ranked, UNC team.  The Eagles trailed the entire game yet scored with under 1:00 minute remaining to pull them within 2.  A failed 2 point conversion gave them the loss.  That game took a lot out of this team both physically and mentally and this week could be tough for BC.  The Panthers are also 2-1 after last week’s loss but they are outgaining their opponents 419 to 232.  BC, on the other hand, is getting outgained on the season 345 to 370.  BC also upset Pitt on the road last year as a 9-point dog giving the Panthers even more motivation here.  We like the better team, who should be very motivated, that is better on both sides of the ball in this game.  Laying less than a TD is solid value here.

ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat +7.5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET

The Heat got back into this series with a win in Game 3 and we feel that confidence carries over to another extremely competitive game here. The Heat got a monster game out of Jimmy Butler who scored 40-points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and handed out 13 assists. Another key factor to the wins was the balanced scoring by the entire Heat team, which has been a staple in this postseason. Miami had five players score in double-digits including Kelly Olynyk (17) who has given them another viable scoring option. If we use the full season as a baseline, we know the Lakers were a below average 3-point shooting team (ranked 21st) at 35%. In Game 3 we saw the Lakers hit just 33% of their 3-point attempts and shoot a more average overall 43% from the field. That was a better indicator of what they should shoot, and it resulted in a much closer game with the Heat making more plays down the stretch. The Lakers are not a great team as a favorite in this price range at 6-4 ATS nor is their 14-8 SU record off a loss overwhelming. In fact, the Lakers average win margin off a loss this season is just +2.6PPG which isn’t enough to get a cover in this game. The Heat may get some help and add to their depth with Bam Adebayo or Dragic back for this game. Both are listed as questionable, but it sounds likely they’ll have Bam. There is a reason that Vegas has dropped this line 2-points compared to the last game and yet money and tickets are coming in on L.A. Bet the Heat in a close win or loss.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 2:08 PM ET

Give the Marlins credit for getting by a Cubs team struggling at the plate but now they face a tough Braves team.  Lets not forget that Miami started this season 7-1.  That means they went 24-28 the rest of the way in the regular season.  Of course that is a big reason the Braves are a -200 favorite on the money line in this game.  Where we get the value in Game One of this series is by grabbing Atlanta on the run line.  We'll lay the -1.5 runs to get the plus money return (currently +105) in this one.  Note that the Marlins 29 regular season losses this year featured 21 by 2 or more runs.  The Braves 35 wins featured 24 by  2 or more runs.  The point is that the vast majority of wins for the Braves and losses for the Marlins came by a multi-run margin.  The Braves have the better lineup, the better bullpen and now let us take a look at the starting pitchers in this one.  Fried for Atlanta against Alcantara for Miami.  Alcantara compiled a 5.40 ERA in his day game starts this season and this is a pitcher that amassed a 6-14 record in 2019.  The Braves Fried has much more post-season experience in comparison with Alcantara and also he is a combined 24-6 the past two seasons.  Fried went 17-6 last season and he is 7-0 this season with a 2.25 ERA.  Per our computer math model this one is a blowout win for the favorite.  Bet the Atlanta Braves -1.5 runs in early afternoon action Tuesday.

ASA top play 10* on: Atlanta Falcons +7 over Green Bay Packers, Monday 8:50PM ET We understand you are going to have a hard time betting against the 3-0 Packers and betting on 0-3 Atlanta but that’s why they make pointspreads. The Packers have played nearly flawless offense in their start to the season which cannot last forever based on the Law of Averages. Atlanta has blown two 15+ point leads in their last two games (in the 4th quarter) and lost both games to fall to 0-3. Are the Packers and Falcons as good/bad as their records? No, we do not think so. If we turned back the clock and it was week 1 this line might be Packers favored by 4-points at best, so value clearly lies with Atlanta. The Packers were 7-point favorites at home against the Lions who are not as good as this Falcons team. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has been incredible, but the Falcons O is not far behind. The Packers average 460YPG, Atlanta 419YPG, Green Bay 40.7PP and Atlanta 30PPG. Atlanta has allowed 36PPG (most coming late in games) which is 31st in the NFL but the Packers are not much better allowing 28.3PPG and 6.6 yards per play which is 31st in the league. Atlanta has veteran-laden team with a particularly good road record and 5 straight covers away from home. The Falcons are 8-9 ATS their last seventeen as a dog but their loss margin is just minus -3.4PPG. Conversely, the Packers are 13-10 their last twenty-three as a favorite with a win margin of +4.6PPG. Those two differentials are obviously enough for an Atlanta Falcons cover. Grab the points.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Las Vegas Raiders +3 over Buffalo Bills - This one sets up very nicely for the home team. The Raiders are coming off a loss last week @ New England (we were on the Pats!) but the situation was not ideal for them in that game. The Raiders were coming off a big home opening win over the Saints which was the inaugural game at Allegiant Stadium in Vegas. They then had to travel on the short week as the win over the Saints was on a Monday night. It was also their 2nd trip to the east coast in their first 3 weeks. New England was coming off a tight loss @ Seattle and the Pats have been fantastic under Belichick off a SU loss (now 35-13 ATS). It turned into a 36-20 win for the Patriots which we expected. There were some bright spots for the Raiders as they averaged 6.7 YPP but were limited to just 56 offensive snaps partly due to 3 key turnovers. We feel the roles are reversed for this game. It’s Buffalo coming off a big win and now having to travel. Buffalo is 3-0 on the season but they played 2 division rivals who have a combined 1-5 record (Jets & Fins) and then last week played host to the Rams. Last Sunday they jumped out to a 28-3 lead only to see LA scored 29 consecutive points and take a 32-28 lead late in the game. The Raiders scored a TD with 15 seconds left to pick up the 35-32 win and a game like that can take a lot out of a team physically and emotionally. The Bills were also outgained by over 100 yards in the game so they were a bit fortunate to get that win. Now traveling to Las Vegas will be a tough spot for this team against a Raider team that will be hungry for a win after losing last Sunday. Buffalo simply isn’t all the used to being a road favorite and this particular situation has not been good to them. Since 1994, the Bills have been a road favorite after a SU home win just 19 times and have covered only 6 of those games (just 31%). They have been in that spot once already this year and almost lost @ Miami (non-cover) after beating the Jets at home. We like the Raiders to give Buffalo their first loss of the season so we’ll take the points here.

#252 ASA PLAY 8* ON Chicago +3 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We were on Atlanta over Chicago last week and things looked great with the Birds leading by 16 with less than 8:00 remaining in the game.  Bears head coach made the decision to switch QB’s during the game as Trubisky was play terrible as we felt he would.  The move to Nick Foles helped do us in as he led Chicago to 3 straight TD drives all in the span of 5:00 minutes giving the Bears a 30-26 win.  Foles will be starting this week and we now like the Bears in this home underdog spot.  We make much of Chicago’s weak 3-0 record as the teams they’ve beaten are now 1-8 combined.  However, is Indy’s 2-1 mark any better?  The teams they’ve played are now 1-8 combined and their only road game was a loss @ Jacksonville who is 0-2 since that win including a thrashing at the hands of the Dolphins.  We’re not sure why the Colts are favored here.  We have Chicago as a 1 point chalk in our power ratings.  Indy’s defense looks fantastic thus far as they lead the NFL in YPG allowed however we feel that stat is misleading.  Two of the teams they’ve faced, Jacksonville & NY Jets, rank near the bottom in total offense (Jets are at the bottom).  Last year Indy finished 16th in total defense so a jump to #1 could be a bit of a mirage.  Chicago’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack right now but we feel as things play out we’ll see their defense is better than the Colts.  Two of the three teams Chicago has played have top tier QB’s and fairly explosive offenses (Falcons & Lions).  We also like the Bears offense much better with Foles at QB.  Chicago has been a home dog 16 times since the start of the 2016 season and they are 12-3-1 ATS in those games.  On top of that, 3-0 teams playing at home in game 4 are 33-15-1 ATS (41-8 SU record) if playing a team outside their division.  Take the Bears here.

#260 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas -4.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a huge game for the Cowboys.  They cannot afford to drop to 1-3.  They’ve faced a fairly tough slate having to go on the road to LA Rams and Seattle while facing Atlanta at home whose much better than their 0-3 record.  Last week they led Seattle on the road 31-30 with under 2:00 remaining when Russell Wilson pulled more of his magic to pick up a win.  Dallas outgained Seattle by over 100 yards in that game and averaged 6.5 YPP in the process.  A week prior they outgained the potent Atlanta offense by nearly 200 yards despite having to come from behind to win that one.  The Boys have a +0.8 YPP differential which is not indicative of a team that currently has a losing record.  Meanwhile Cleveland is off 2 home wins and could step into this one a bit fat and happy as we like to say.  However, those wins came at the hands of 2 of the worst teams in the NFL, Cincinnati and Washington and neither were all that easy.  They held on to beat Cincinnati 35-30 and last week vs Washington they Browns trailed entering the 4th quarter before scoring 3 straight TD’s to pull away.  Cleveland is now 0-7 both SU & ATS their last 7 road games losing by an average of 18 PPG.  Going back even further, since November of 2014 the Browns are just 5-39 SU on the road and 17-27 ATS in those games.  This is a much bigger game for Dallas and we’ll lay the points.

#253 ASA PLAY 8* ON New Orleans Saints -3 over Detroit Lions – Sunday at 1PM ET

Let’s look inside the numbers here and break down this game from the inside and see what we find. Detroit is coming off a respectable win in Arizona, while the Saints are off back-to-back losses to the Raiders and Packers. Against Green Bay last week, the Saints were favored by -3.5-points and lost by a TD. The Saints had more rushing and passing yards in the game, but Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers were too much in the 4th quarter. The week before that, the Saints lost to a highly motivated Raiders team in their home opener. New Orleans was one of the favorites to come out of the NFC this year and are in a desperate 1-2 right now with a negative differential of -2PPG. The Lions are also 1-2 and their win last week was somewhat misleading as the Cardinals had more first downs, more rushing and passing yards but QB Murray threw three INT’s which swung the momentum in Detroit’s favor. The Lions two losses came to a slightly overrated Bears team and a blowout loss to Green Bay. The Saints played close to Green Bay yet the Packers beat them handily with +7 first downs, +170 rushing yards and plus nearly 9 full minutes of time of possession. Detroit, like New Orleans is also 1-2 but their differential is minus -7.9PPG which is 26th worst in the NFL. There is not home field advantage here and the Lions are 5-12 SU their last seventeen at home with an average loss margin of minus -6.3PPG. The Saints on the other hand are 14-3 SU their last seventeen away with a margin of victory of +8.6PPG. This is a great opportunity to play on a good team off a loss and a bad team off an upset win.

#123 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma -7 over Iowa State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We are well aware that recent meetings between these teams have been close games.  However, this line was in the double digit range and has dropped to a -7 and we feel we have exceptional line value here with Oklahoma primed for a blowout win.  Last season's match-up between these teams was decided by a single point but the Sooners led that game 42-21 late and they won't make the same mistake this season.  Yes, the Sooners are off an upset loss to Kansas State but OU had a 4-0 turnover deficit in the game.  The Sooners actually had 28 first downs compared to only 10 for the Wildcats and yet they lost the game outright.  This is helping to give us great line value this week with Oklahoma.  The Sooners piled up 517 yards of offense in that game and now take on an Iowa State team that just allowed 499 yards at TCU last week.  The Cyclones tight win over the Horned Frogs had a lot to do with a 2-1 turnover edge and the Frogs had 10 penalties compared to just 3 for Iowa State.  The Cyclones also lost their season opener to UL Lafayette by 17 points.  In that game they barely eclipsed the 300 yard mark in terms of total offense.  The fact is that highly regarded Cyclones QB Brock Purdy hasn't been overly impressive so far this season as his completion percentage is down from the 2 prior seasons and he has thrown for an average of just 178 yards per game.  Keep in mind last season Purdy threw for nearly 4,000 yards.  The Cyclones simply won't be able to score enough here to keep up with an angry Sooners team that has a dangerous offensive attack and won't be able to be stopped in this one.  Lay it!  This will be a road rout for Oklahoma

#132 ASA PLAY 8* ON Air Force +7 over Navy, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Though it was only recently announced that the Mountain West Conference would have a season, it was already determined many weeks ago that Air Force would at least play the other service academies (Navy and Army) this season. In other words, the Falcons have already been preparing to face Navy for many weeks now. What have the Midshipmen been doing? They have been busy prepping for teams like BYU and Tulane as those were their first two opponents. Give the Midshipmen credit for rallying in the 2nd half for the win over the Green Wave two weeks ago. However, lets not forget that up until that point Navy was outscored 79-3 in their first 6 quarters of football this season. Tulane essentially gift-wrapped the 2nd half comeback for the Midshipmen and this Navy team is not nearly the team it was last season. Keep in mind, prior to last season's 11-2 record, Navy was 3-10 the previous season. We're not sold on the Midshipmen this season and we like Air Force getting a full TD here as a home dog. Home field has meant a lot in this rivalry match-up and the Falcons enter this game on a 8-game winning streak. Yes, Air Force has lost a lot of personnel from last season's team but this is not that unusual for a service academy football team. They are use to major turnover of the roster year after year. That said, coach Calhoun and his staff absolutely have this Falcons team ready to go for this season and they've been gearing up for Navy for many weeks now and they know this team very, very well. Air Force knows how to stop the option and, though there are a lot of new faces on the defensive side of the ball, it is all about execution and playing within the system to defend the Navy attack on offense. The Falcons defense will be ready here. On the other side of the ball, other than the QB spot, the Falcons return plenty of experienced personnel and this is a unit that was one of the best in the nation running the ball at 298.5 ypg last year. This line opened up with Air Force at nearly a 3 point favorite and has swung nearly 10 points as the Midshipmen are now a 7 point favorite in this one. This is because of all the roster news surrounding the Falcons including QB Hammond losing his cadet status. The result, in our opinion, is exceptional line value on the home dog Falcons in this one. They match up so well with Navy, they have dominated this series at home in recent years, and they also got a big emotional boost with the recent announcement that there would be a Mountain West season. Already fully prepping for Navy, now the Falcons also ride a wave of emotion as their season schedule just went from 2 games to 10 games and these guys can't wait to take the field against one of their service academy rivals. We expect another home win for the Falcons in this rivalry so of course we feel very comfortable here with grabbing the points here with Air Force!

#115 ASA PLAY 8* ON Missouri +13 over Tennessee, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Missouri opened up the season with a loss but it was to be expected as they played Alabama last week. The Tigers defense showed great improvement last season and even though Missouri has a new head coach (Drinkwitz) this season, they have the same defensive coordinator (Walters). Last year the Tigers allowed only 19.4 points per game and their pass defense (179.3 ypg) ranked among the best in the nation. We like double digit dogs that are solid defensively and Missouri certainly fits the bill in that regard. Also, the fact they had to begin their season with a very tough match-up against the Crimson Tide means the Tigers will be well-prepared to face anything the Volunteers throw at them here. Missouri catches Tennessee off a 4-point win over South Carolina. The Vols barely snuck by the Gamecocks thanks in part to a 2-0 edge in turnovers as the yardage and first downs in that game were very close to equal. That said, we feel this is far too many points for the Volunteers to be laying here and, in fact, Tennessee only has 3 ATS covers the last dozen times they have been a home favorite! These teams met last season in Game 11 and with each team sitting at 5-5 on the year. The Vols won that game and it made them bowl eligible as they went on to a 8-5 season (including 1 point win in bowl game versus Indiana). The Tigers home loss to the Volunteers cost them a winning season and there was no bowl for Missouri. Though they may not get full payback here in the form of an outright win, the Tigers will stay within single digits in this game per our computer math modeling. Look for a very tight game likely decided by a single score margin. Grab the points with Missouri

ASA top play 10* on Miami Heat +5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET Despite the Heat's lower seed to start the Playoffs, it’s evident these two teams are playing the best basketball of all NBA teams and deserving of this Finals entry. Miami and Los Angeles are the top two teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the postseason. The one great equalizer of this year’s bizarre Playoffs has been the neutral floor and we feel that levels the playing field for the young Miami Heat. The intensity, pressure, and atmosphere of playing on the road in Los Angeles is eliminated and gives this Heat team a legitimate shot to win this Championship. Miami will steal a victory in Game 1 for several reasons. The Heat matchup well with L.A. as Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala can all defend LeBron and Bam Adebayo can match up against Anthony Davis. Since 2013, Butler and Crowder have held LeBron to 42.2% shooting and below while Iggy is a notorious LBJ stopper. LeBron is leading all players in assists in the postseason but also in turnovers. Miami has a solid edge offensively with diversity as six players average double-digit scoring, four are scoring over 16.5PPG. On any given night it can be anyone for Miami which is extremely hard to defend. In comparison, the Lakers only have three players averaging 10+ points and rely heavily on LeBron and AD who average 26+. While Playoff Rondo has been great, we’re not really sure where the Lakers can turn to if LeBron and AD are limited while Miami has more scoring options. The Lakers have already lost two Game 1’s in a series and are notorious slow starters. Without the pressure we like the young Heat in Game 1.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals +165) over Dallas Stars, Monday at 8:05 PM ET

We sense a blowout here.  The Lightning are well aware that they let a great opportunity pass them by in Game 5 Saturday when they played too conservatively with a 2-1 lead and went on to lose 3-2 in double overtime. Tampa Bay will be much more aggressive in Game 6 Monday and that means when they get the lead they will keep their foot on the gas and keep expanding that lead throughout the game in our opinion.  Rather than lay the -165 price on the money line (too pricey for our liking) we can flip that to a +165 by taking the Lightning on the puck line.  Yes, that means TB must win the game by more than a 1 goal margin for us to win our bet but with the way they've outplayed the Stars for much of the past four games and considering how Game 5 played out, a Game 6 blowout seems imminent.  Tampa Bay is 6-0 when off a loss in this post-season.  The Bolts last 10 wins have come by an average margin of 2.4 goals per game.  The Stars have 11 losses in this post-season and the average margin of those defeats is 2.3 goals.  8 of the 11 Dallas defeats in the bubble in Edmonton have come by a margin of 2 or more goals.  Prior to a bit of a "miracle win" in Game 5 of this series, the Stars were only 7-7 in their 14 prior games.  You can see from all of the above why we expect the Lightning to win this game and why we expect the victory to be by a big margin.  Dallas has been held to just 1 power play goal in this series while Tampa Bay has scored 6.  Don't be surprised if special teams play a role again Monday as the Lightning win the game big and, in doing so, win Lord Stanley's Cup as well in their second opportunity to close out the series and complete the season with the ultimate prize!  Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a big plus money return, currently in +165 range) with Tampa Bay is the value play here.

#485 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’ve seen some solid line value with these week 3 games and this one is no exception.  Our power rating have Dallas as a 3-point dog here so we’re getting at least a few extra points.  The look ahead line on this game was Seattle -3 and -3.5 last week.  Everyone watched Seattle beat New England on Sunday Night (barely) while Dallas was struggling at home vs Atlanta and came out with a miraculous win.  That’s why 70% of the tickets have come in on Seattle here.  The Seahawks are 2-0 but were outgained in both games including getting outyarded 506 to 383 in their season opening win @ Atlanta.  The Falcons made a number of mistakes to allow Seattle to win that game and Russell Wilson was almost perfect with just 4 incomplete passes.  Last week they held New England just short of the goal line as time expired to pick up a 35-30 win.  Now Seattle is a bit overvalued.  Dallas has played 2 down to the wire games losing @ LA Rams by 3 and winning last week by 1.  We expect another very close game here and getting the Cowboys above +4 is great value.  The Boys still have one of the top offenses in the NFL with weapons all over the field.  After leading the NFL in YPP last year, they are currently 5th this season at 6.3 YPP.  They will be able to move the ball and put points on the board here vs a Seattle defense that has allowed 6.7 YPP in their first 2 games, 3rd worst in the league.  Despite their 1-point cover last week in a game they nearly lost, the Seahawks have not been a great home favorite as of late.  Last season they were just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite losing 3 of those games outright.  Dallas wea favored in their first 2 games but has been a very successful 7-2 ATS as a dog dating back to October of 2018.  This one should be close so we grab the points.

#462 ASA PLAY 8* ON New England -6 over Las Vegas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

What a great set up for the Patriots here.  They are coming off a loss last Sunday @ Seattle in a game they had a chance to win but were stopped at the goal line on the final play of the game.  They outgained Seattle 464 to 429 in the game and new QB Cam Newton continue to look impressive.  We’re not a Newton fan by any means and felt he was overrated the last few years because he wasn’t 100% healthy.  He had a bad shoulder and that showed in his performances last season.  However, he now looks completely healthy and has completed over 71% of his passes and is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt (up from 56% and 6.4 YPA last year).  He threw for 397 yards @ Seattle and has rushed for 122 yards on the season.  The “Bradyless” Patriots look much better than we thought they would.  Las Vegas just picked up a HUGE home win in their inaugural game at the brand new Allegiant Stadium.  That win over the Saints pushed this team to 2-0 with their other win coming @ Carolina.  The fact is the Raiders won both games but were destroyed on a YPP basis last week vs the Saints (7.4 to 5.0) but ran 19 more offensive snaps.  The week before vs a Carolina team that many feel is one of the worst in the NFL, Las Vegas needed a TD late in the 4th to pick up the 34-30 win (yardage was about dead even).  Now they head back to the east coast for the 2nd time in 3 weeks while coming off a short week having played on Monday night.  We also expect an angry New England defense that played very well in week 1 at home but not so well last Sunday in Seattle.  That’s not a great match up for a Raider offensive line that is really banged up right now.  They were without 2 starters up front on Monday night and now lost a 3rd with OG Incognito out for this game.  On top of that their has allowed 6.7 YPP though the first 2 games which is almost worst in the NFL.  Belichick has been great off a loss with a 34-13 ATS record and he’s covered over 60% of his games at home.  This one sets up nicely for New England to win by a TD or more.

#470 ASA PLAY 8* ON Minnesota +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Value again.  If this game was played as the season opener in Minnesota, the Vikings would have been a favorite.  Instead, just a few weeks in, they are getting nearly a FG.  This is an absolute must win spot for Minnesota and we expect them to play well.  In fact, teams that start the season 0-2 both SU & ATS are an impressive 56-36 ATS in week 2 dating back to 2003.  That simply speaks to making sure you don’t overreact to one or two weeks in the NFL.  We’re not.  The Titans are 2-0 but won BOTH games on last second FG’s beating Denver by 2 and Jacksonville by 3.  They are only a few plays away from sitting right where Minnesota is with an 0-2 record instead of 2-0.  The Titans are undefeated despite losing the YPP battle in each game.  Minnesota’s offense looked very good in week 1 vs Green Bay putting up nearly 8.0 YPP which was the best in the NFL that week.  Last week they turned the ball over 3 times and averaged just 3.7 YPP at Indy.  They were +3 in that game @ Indianapolis and now they are basically the same at home vs Tennessee.  Their offense should look much better this week back in the US Bank dome.  Defensively they’ve looked poor but we anticipate head coach Mike Zimmer, one of the top defensive minds in the NFL, to have them ready at home in this must win spot.  Zimmer has been fantastic when playing at home off a SU loss with a PERFECT 11-0 ATS mark his last 11 in that situation.  The Vikings have also been a money machine covering almost 70% of their home games over 5+ seasons with a 37-17-1 spread mark.  We like Minnesota to get over the hump and win a tight one here so we’ll take the points.

#476 ASA PLAY 8* ON Atlanta -3 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We’re not high on Chicago this year and the fact they started the season 2-0 is a bit fraudulent we feel.  They’ve beaten 2 teams that are currently 0-4 combined (Giants & Lions) and they’ve struggled to do so.  They trailed 23-6 @ Detroit entering the 4th quarter and miraculously won with 3 fourth quarter TD’s vs a banged up Lion defense.  Last week they played host to the Giants and held on for dear life winning 17-13 vs a team that lost starting RB Barkley and WR Shepard during the game.  Even with that, the Giants were on the Chicago 10-yard line with a chance to win as time expired.  The Bears were outgained in those 2 games by a combined 721 to 667 and on a YPP basis as well (5.4 to 5.1).  The Falcons have started the season 0-2 and this now becomes a must win for this team.  Just as we feel the Bears 2-0 start is a bit of a farse, we also look at the winless Falcons as much better than their record.  Chicago has played 2 bottom feeders this year as we mentioned, while Atlanta had faced Seattle & Dallas and could have won either.  Last week’s loss at Dallas was a tough one and we all know about the botched onside kick situation at the end of the game which led to the Cowboys winning in a game they never led until that point.  A week earlier Atlanta lost to Seattle but outgained the 2-0 Seahawks by 506 to 383 but were shut out on downs 4 times (0 for 4 on fourth down) and had 2 key turnovers.  Atlanta looks like they are one of the better offenses in the NFL already averaging 6.0 YPP and Chicago will have trouble keeping up here with their offense which we feel is one of the worst in the NFL.  Defensively the Falcons have struggled but let’s remember they’ve faced 2 of the top offenses in the NFL (Dallas & Seattle) and Chicago is nowhere near that level.  We think they’ll look much better on that side of the ball on Sunday.  The Bears have covered just 3 of their last 14 games dating back to last year and just 1 of their last 7 road games.  Teams that start the season 0-2 SU are a money making 33-16 ATS in their 3rd game of the year dating back to 2014.  During that same span, teams that start 2-0 SU are 21-26 ATS in their 3rd game and both fall in line with this game.  This is a terrible spot for an overvalued team coming into Atlanta.  Lay this small number as the Falcons roll.

ASA top play 10* on Denver Nuggets +5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET

If any team in the Bubble can pull of a dramatic come from behind series win it’s the “Cardiac Kids” from Denver. The Nuggets have already survived 3-1 deficits in the playoffs and one of those came against the Clippers who were favored to win it all. If a few bounces of the ball or calls by the officials had gone the other way in this series, it could very likely be 3-1 in Denver’s favor. That’s a testament to just how well they’ve played the Lakers in this series. Anthony Davis have been by far and away the best Laker in the playoffs as he leads them in scoring, rebounding and blocks but he did tweak an ankle in the last game, and despite finishing the game, looked a little gimpy afterwards. If AD isn’t 100% the Lakers don’t have the depth to overcome his loss. The Nuggets MUST get some contributions on the offensive end from someone other than Jokic and Murray and Michael Porter Jr. is that guy. In Game 4 Porter Jr. scored 13 points on 5 of 8 shooting in just 20 minutes. Yes, he’s a liability on defense but coach Malone has to live with that for the trade off of instant scoring. Denver is a respectable 23-12 SU off a loss this season and have won those games by an average of +3PPG. The Nuggets extend this series with an outright win on Saturday. (Small bet on the moneyline too)

#406 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON South Carolina +4 over Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Tennessee comes into this game with a lot of high expectations placed on them coming into the season. The Volunteers, including their 1-point win in the Gator Bowl over Indiana, have won 6 straight games and are ranked 16th in the nation entering this contest. That 6-game winning streak started with a big home win over South Carolina last season. However, South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp entered that contest having beaten Tennessee 7 straight times and that sets up this home dog revenge situation perfectly for the Gamecocks. South Carolina is flying under the radar a bit early this season because they are known for solid, physical defensive play but Muschamp's teams also are known for struggling to put many points on the board. That should change this season. We like the fact that new offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo (former head coach at Colorado State) has former Rams QB Collin Hill to work with. He is a graduate transfer and won the starting job from Ryan Hilinski. Of course Hill knows Bobo's offense well and that will allow the Gamecocks revamped offense to hit the ground running with Bobo's play-calling and Hill's leadership as a veteran with experience in this offense. Hill's college career started in 2016 at Colorado State so he has a lot of experience under his belt! Last year's match-up between these teams saw the Gamecocks lead 21-17 at the half but they were on the road at Tennessee and playing with an anemic offense and watched the Volunteers outscore them 24-0 the rest of the way. This match-up will play out much differently. Of course the ranked (and hyped) Vols are attracting attention from the marketplace but they also have had issues leading up to this game because of covid-19 cases. This has resulted in Tennessee not being able to have consistently scheduled practices. Now they go on the road playing right into the teeth of revenge and there is a very positive atmosphere right now in South Carolina as the team seems rejuvenated with the change at offensive coordinator. The Gamecocks also have stability on the other side of the ball with Travaris Robinson continuing as the defensive coordinator - a role he was hired for in December 2015 - and he has plenty of experience working with Muschamp. Upset alert in this one! We like South Carolina plus the points here.

#451 ASA 8* PLAY ON Texas State +18 over Boston College, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - Anytime we look at a large underdog in college football, we like to have a team that can score points. That way they are always in the game, even if they get down big the back door is open. That’s what we have here. Texas State can score points. They are playing their 4th game of the season here vs BC and this team is averaging 37 PPG on 431 YPG and 6.1 YPP. They have 2 very solid QB’s in McBride and Vitt who’ve both played key roles already this year. McBride has been out due to Covid issues but could be back here. If not, Vitt has thrown for over 600 yards and put up 86 points in his 2 starts this year. Texas State played a very good SMU team to open the season and gave them a scare almost pulling the upset before losing 31-24. This offense is definitely capable of hanging in this game. While TSU is playing their 4th game of the season, this will be BC’s 2nd game. They upset Duke last week 26-6 so coming off a huge ACC win we’d expect a bit of a ho-hum performance here from the Eagles. On top of that, this BC team has a big ACC game on deck as they host North Carolina next Saturday. The Eagles win last week over Duke was a bit deceiving. The Devils were their own worst enemy with a number of mistakes that left points off the board. Duke was picked off at the BC 19 yard line, fumbled at the BC 4 yard line, fumbled at their own 12 yard line, fumbled at the BC 14 yard line, threw a pick at the BC 33 yard line, AND missed a FG. As you can see, the 20-point win by Boston College was not as it may have looked. The Eagles lost their battering Ram RB Dillon to the NFL (1,685 YR last year) and had only 84 yards rushing on 2 YPC last week. That’s a red flag for a team that has been a physical, run the ball team, over the last few seasons. This is also a spot the Eagles are simply not used to and that is laying a lot of points. The last time they were laying 17 points or more was back in 2018 and that was vs FCS Holy Cross. Just a bad spot for BC and playing in front of zero fans at home. We’ll grab the points here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Friday 8:30PM ET It’s do-or-die time for Boston and we feel they respond with a double-digit win in this elimination game. Has Miami beaten Boston or have the Celtics beaten themselves? The Celtics committed 19 turnovers in Game 4 and have averaged 15.75 TO’s per game in the series. That is uncharacteristic for this team that averaged the 6th fewest TO’s in the league in the regular season at 13.6. The Celtics continue to shoot it well and have been better in the series in their EFG% percentage overall and even in Game 4 when they hit 48% from the field while Miami hit 44%. The difference for the Heat was incredible shooting night by Milwaukee native Tyler Herro. Tyler is going to be a good pro and is a capable scorer when he gets it going as I can attest to first-hand having coached against him numerous times in his youth. Boston will have a defensive answer for him tonight and put the onus on another Heat to pick up the scoring slack. Don’t you find it strange that the team up 3-1 in this series is still an underdog? Boston is a respectable 19-11 SU off a loss and we’ll back them one more time here.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Miami +3 over Jacksonville, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - The Jags have quickly become a public team over the first few weeks with their win over Indy as a 7-point dog and their performance last week @ Tennessee, a 3-point loss. Over 70% of the tickets have come in on Jacksonville here pushing this number from it’s opener, which was pick-em, all they way to -3. Now the value is on Miami in our opinion. The Jaguars have gone from a 7 point dog in week 1 and a 8.5 point dog in week to now to a 3-point favorite. We realize they aren’t playing the Colts or Titans here, but that is still a big swing against a Miami team that showed some life last week losing by just 3 to the surging Bills. They put up over 400 yards on one of the top defensive teams in the NFL so their offense definitely should be able to keep them in this game vs a Jacksonville defense that allowed 33 points last week to a Titan team that put up just 16 points in week 1 @ Denver. Also, in Jacksonville’s win this year vs the Colts, the were outgained by over 200 yards so that was a very misleading win in our opinion. Jax is just 13-24 ATS as a home favorite dating back to 2008 and we simply do not trust them laying a FG here as many suspected this would be one of the worst teams in the league entering the season including us. We’re not going to overreact and change that view after just 2 weeks. Miami + the points for us.

ASA PLAY 8* ON South Alabama Jaguars (+) over UAB Blazers, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #418

This line was as low as a -5 but now has risen to as high as a -7 as of Wednesday evening.  We're going to take advantage of this line rising to the key number of 7 and fade a Blazers team that is dealing with a key injury here.  Even though the injury is to his non-throwing shoulder, starting QB Johnston is expected to be out for this game.  That means redshirt freshman Lucero would be getting his first ever start and it would be on the road.  Keep in mind, South Alabama nearly upset Tulane two weeks ago and that was on the road.  The Jaguars have been a double digit dog in each of their first two games this season and their first game saw them get the outright upset as a big home dog versus Southern Mississippi.  That said, even though UAB is a quality football team and returned a lot of starters this season, the QB situation is a precarious one to say the least and the Jaguars have proven capable of being tough on opponents that are projected to be much better than them.  Per our computer math model, some of the projections have the Jags getting the outright upset and the majority show them staying with less than a TD margin in this one.  With that being the case, the home underdog is the way to go here.  Grab the points with South Alabama in what could be a home upset in evening action Thursday.

ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Game 4 Wednesday 8:30 PM ET

We are going to side with Boston again in this critical Game 4 as a win here gets this series to 2-2 and turns it into the best of three. The Celtics in large part have outplayed the Heat in all three games but didn’t close out the first two games of the series. In Game 1 the Celtics were +12 going into 4th and faltered down the stretch. In Game 2 the Celts were up 13 at half and collapsed in the 3rd quarter. In Game 3 they led coast to coast in a comfortable win. Boston has Shot 50% and 48% last two games and the return of Gordan Hayward certainly helped with the late game rotations. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and have a great straight up record off a loss, but Boston has been the better team for better part of all three games and are still in a desperate situation. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 5-7 ATS record when getting +4.5 or less points. Boston has an edge when it comes to shooting and can match the Heat defensively so we will go with the better team down 1-2 in the series. Lay the points in a close Boston win.

ASA PLAY 8* ON New England +4 over Seattle, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is the first time in 64 games that the Patriots have been an underdog!  You read that correctly.  Now we understand the Pats don’t have Brady under center, however Cam Newton looked pretty solid last week and they still have Belichick in charge.  Another key here is Seattle’s home field advantage, which is easily one of the best in the NFL, is negated with no fans attending the game.  That’s huge in our opinion.  The Pats defense was lights out last year leading the NFL in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and PPG allowed.  They lost a few defensive players off that team but a number of key players are back and they looked very good again last week holding Miami to just 11 points on only 4.6 YPP.  Some may say “well that was against Miami so big deal”.  Let’s remember this Miami offense averaged 27 PPG over their final 7 a year ago.  Holding any NFL team to 11 points is solid.  Newton isn’t Brady.  We know that.  However might the Pats offense be a bit more diverse with Cam at QB this year?  They ran for 217 yards last week and Newton was 15 of 19 through the air.  If he can simply be efficient in the passing game, this offense could be very good.  Seattle topped Atlanta 38-25 but they were actually outgained 505 to 383.  As per usual, the Falcons put up huge offensive numbers but lose because of mistakes with 2 turnovers and 0 for 4 on 4th down situations in Seattle territory.  The Seahawks were just 2-5 ATS last year as a home favorite and didn’t win a single home game by more than a TD.  We love taking a top notch defense getting points.  Especially with this one sitting above a FG.  We like New England in this one.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 7:30PM ET

As we mentioned in our Game 1 wager on the Lakers, they have benefitted from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. Fatigue was the very obvious in the opener as the Nuggets were sloppy with the basketball, didn’t win the 50/50 balls and looked slower than the Lakers who scored 16 fast break points. The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 9 of eleven playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. Los Angeles led by 27-points in Game 1 and the final margin of 12 does not do justice to how dominating a win it was for L.A. I was surprised this line didn’t come out higher than it did considering the Clippers were favored by as many as 9.5-points in their series against the Nuggets. L.A. can matchup with the Nuggets at every position, but the Nuggets can’t contain Anthony Davis. We will lay the points again with Los Angeles.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +5.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Giants actually looked OK on Monday night. Their offense didn’t do much (lost 26-16) but that was expected vs a Pittsburgh team that just might have the best defense in the NFL. We had the UNDER in that game and cashed but here we like the Giants to play Chicago tight and possibly pull the upset. QB Jones played fairly well against a great defense minus his 2 interceptions (279 yards & 2 TDs). They had no running game but that should improve here vs a Chicago defense that allowed Detroit to run for 138 yards last week. RB Barkley will have a much easier time this week after his 15 carry, 6 yard performance last week. The Bears came from 23-6 down in the 4th quarter @ Detroit last week so they pulled off a huge division comeback win. The Chicago offense looked shaky at best with Trubisky at the helm for much of the game. He did lead them to the 4th quarter comeback but we cannot trust him as a significant favorite. The Giants defense actually impressed us last week holding what should be a very solid Pitt offense (with Roethlisberger back) to 349 yards on 5.5 YPP. They should improve on that this week vs a pedestrian Chicago offense. When these two met here in Chicago last year, the Bears escaped with a 19-14 win after trailing at halftime. We expect the Giants to be improved this year while Chicago we’re not so sure. The Bears have covered only ONCE in their last 7 games as a favorite (can’t trust Trubisky in this role) and NY is 10-2 their last 12 as a road dog. Giants have a decent shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points.

ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Game 3 Saturday We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss essentially ends this series with them down 0-2 already. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-11 SU record, 6-2 their last eight. Boston lost two straight games in the Raptors series then bounced back to win 2 of three so we know they’re capable of getting back into this series with a win here. Boston shot well in the last game and hit 50% from the field in Game 2 after a poor shooting night in Game 1. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 4-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. With a 2-0 lead the Heat may relax a little in this one and leave the door open for the Celtics to get a win and cover. Lay the points in a close Boston win.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Wake Forest +1 over NC State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a great set up for Wake in our opinion. The Deacons were whipped last week vs Clemson losing 37-13 to what might just be the best team in the country. Now they take a huge step down in competition facing an NC State team that finished 1-7 in ACC play last season getting outscored by 159 points in the process (average ACC loss was by 20 points). While WF was getting a game under their best vs Clemson, the Wolfpack still have yet to play. On top of that, they’ve had a number of Covid outbreak interruptions which has limited their already shortened practice time. They were supposed to open their season 2 weeks ago vs Virginia Tech but that game had to be rescheduled September 26th. That’s not a great situation for a team that struggled last year and is trying to learn new systems on both offense and defense as both coordinators are new this year. The entire NC State coaching staff has pretty much been revamped over the last 2 year which disrupts continuity. Just 1 assistant remains on staff from the 2018 season. While NCSU’s coaching staff has had to go through massive changes, WF head coach Dave Clawson has turned this program from a doormat into a winning program. He took a perennial loser and has now led them to 4 straight winning season. Coaching edge is definitely with Wake in this game. NC State QB Leary returns after starting 6 games last year but we’re not so sure that’s a positive. He completed just 48% of his passes and was 0-6 in those starts losing by an average score of 41-16. When Leary faced off against Wake last year, he struggled to say the least completing just 17 of his 45 pass attempts with the Deacs winning 44-10. He now must face basically that same defense with Wake returning 9 starters on that side of the ball. The Demon Deacons have now won 3 straight in this series including 2 years ago here in Raleigh when they were heavy underdogs. The Pack was favored 3 times at home in ACC games last year and lost 2 of those games outright. Going back to the previous season NCSU has actually lost outright 3 of the last 4 times they’ve been a home ACC favorite. No fans in the stands here takes away any home field advantage NC State may have had. We think Wake is the better team, in the better situation, with no long travel (schools are 100 miles apart), and should be favored here. We’ll gladly take the points with the better team with a game already under their belt.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7 over Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET The Lakers have benefited from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. How much do the Nuggets have in their tanks against a well-rested Lakers team? The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 8 of ten playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. The Nuggets have captured the attention and hearts of the public and are over-valued in this opening game. We are pulling for a great series here but feel the Lakers get a big win in the opener.

ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtic -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 2 Thursday 7PM ET We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss puts them in too deep a hole to get out of. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-10 SU record, 6-1 their last seven. The Celtics led by double-digits going into the fourth then couldn’t buy a bucket down the stretch in the 4th quarter and OT. Two of Boston’s big guns had horrible shooting nights as Tatum and Walker combined for 5 of 21 from the 3-point line. Expect a much better outing as Tatum shot over 40% from downtown this season, while Walking hit over 38%. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 3-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. Lay the points in a close Boston win.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, Tuesday 9PM ET We are value bettors and this line has us on the Clippers in this Game 7. The previous numbers on games in this series have had the Clippers favored by -8.5-points and line drop has us on them again here. Is there a better big game player in the NBA than Kawhi Leonard? We don’t think so. The Clippers have blown 16 and 19-point leads in the last two games and we don’t see this veteran team blowing another one in this elimination game. Granted, we love this Denver team and the heart they play with but the situation and pressure is magnified tonight and we don’t see the young Nuggets pulling off another upset. LA is 24-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 22-8 ATS. The Clippers were outscored by 13-points in the 4th quarter of the last game and blew a 7-point lead. We mentioned this the other day but the Clippers average margin of victory after a loss which is +14PPG. They’ll win by double-digits here and move on to face the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Denver +3 over Tennessee, Monday at 9:20 PM ET

With most NFL teams not allowing fans at least the first few weeks of the season that means there will be little to no home field advantage.  That is not the case here.  Even though Denver will not allow fans, they have a distinct home field advantage due to the altitude.  Especially early in the season and especially this year when teams have had just a 3 week training camp and no pre-season games to get into football shape.  The Broncos are a remarkable 33-4 SU at home in their first 2 weeks of the season partly due to the altitude advantage which will be even more enhances this season as we mentioned.  The Titans have been practicing at an altitude of 597 feet and now they must play in Denver at an altitude of 5,280 feet.  Expect the Titan players to struggle with fatigue in this game.  We think Tennessee comes into this season a bit over valued.  They made the playoffs last year on the heels of RB Henry and a career year from QB Tannehill.  We don’t expect Tannehill to repeat last year 70% completion rate (career high) or 6 interceptions (career low).  We also don’t think Henry will run wild again this year with defenses focused on him.  These two met last year here in Denver and the Broncos pitched at 16-0 shutout holding Henry to just 28 yards on 15 carries.  New Denver QB Lock breathed some life into this offense winning 5 of his 6 games as a starter after replacing Flacco.  The Denver brass picked up some key offensive weapons for him in rookie WR’s Jeudy & Hamler along with signing RB Melvin Gordon.  We like Denver as a home dog here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Rams +2.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET LA was in the Super Bowl 2 years ago and dropped back to 9-7 last year. A regression was expected so that wasn’t a big surprise. This is still a very well coached, solid team that we like as a dog here at home in their first game at the brand new SoFi Stadium. They actually may catch a break with no fans in the stadium as Cowboys fans travel as well as any and this very well could have been a home game like atmosphere for Dallas. The Cowboys are expected to be one of the top teams in the NFC but aren’t they always? The fact is, Dallas is almost always overvalued entering the season and we feel they are here laying a full FG on the road vs a playoff caliber team in the Rams. Dallas beat the have nots last year but they were just 1-6 SU vs teams that made the playoffs. One of the few decent teams they did beat last year was this Rams squad. IT was an embarrassing 44-21 loss for LA at Dallas and we expect they will have a chip on their shoulder here after that setback. The Rams were favored in that game @ Dallas and now they are getting a full FG at home just one year later. In week 1, games that have a total of 50 or higher (this one does) the underdog is 13-2 ATS. This system did lose on Thursday night with KC covering but we don’t see that happening here. The majority of wagers have come in on Dallas (60%) which is not a surprise at all, yet only 35% of the money is on the Boys. We like this situation and we’ll take the Rams +3.

ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -8.5 over Denver Nuggets, Sunday 1:05 PM ET - We are going to keep this analysis a little shorter than normal with football in full swing but the pick here is the LA Clippers. The Clippers just watched the Lakers end their series against the Rockets and will do the same to the Nuggets Sunday. LA is 24-5 SU this season when coming off a loss, 22-7 ATS. The Clippers were outscored by 13-points in the 4th quarter of the last game and blew a 7-point lead. We don’t anticipate that happening again here with a veteran team. Denver got 26-points from Jamal Murray in Game 5 after struggling to score in the previous two games but don’t expect a repeat performance here. The Clippers have multiple defenders at Murray which then puts a huge scoring onus on Nikola Jokic. The nail in the coffin for us in this wager is the Clippers average margin of victory after a loss which is +15PPG. They’ll win by double-digits here and move on to face the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals

ASA PLAY 8* ON NY Jets +7 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Too many points here in our opinion. The average line in this AFC East series over the last 21 meetings has been 3.5 points. Only 3 times in the last 21 meetings has the line been 7 or higher. We’re getting close here. Buffalo’s offense isn’t potent enough to be laying a full TD in a division rivalry game. They scored 20 points or less in 11 of their 17 games last year. Their QB Allen is the most inaccurate passer in the NFL. He was dead last in the NFL in completion percentage among starters and also threw the highest percentage of uncatchable passes. He’s facing a Jets defense that wasn’t talked about much last year but is very good. They ranked in the top 5 in YPP defense and top 7 in YPG defense. Very comparable numbers to the Buffalo defense which was considered one of the best in the NFL. In their 2 meetings last year the Bills scored a grand total of 23 points. Tough to cover a spread near 7 when you struggle to score. The Jets offensive numbers were bad last year. No doubt about it. However, when QB Darnold was playing, they weren’t terrible. They actually had a winning record (7-6) when Darnold was the starter averaging 20 PPG. In the 3 games he missed due to injury the Jets were 0-3 and barely averaged 7 PPG. We think the NY offense will do enough to keep this one close. Lastly, we love looking at divisional underdogs early in the season. They’ve been very successful. Especially if the game is in week 1 and that divisional dog did not make the playoffs last year (Jets) and they are facing a division team that did make the playoffs last year (Bills). In that situation the dog us 23-6 ATS dating back to 2003. We expect a down to the wire game here and we like the Jets plus the points.