#768 ASA PLAY ON Hofstra -4.5 over Charleston, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Hofstra as they sit 2 games behind Charleston in the CAA standings. Hofstra started the conference season with 4 straight wins and they’ve since lost 4 in a row, 3 coming on the road to sit in 4th place at 4-4. Charleston is 6-2 but they’ve played the 11th easiest strength of schedule in CAA play thus far (Hofstra’s SOS is 3rd) and they are just 1-2 on the road in league games. Their only road win in conference play was @ Elon by 4 points in a game the Cougars made 13 more FT’s yet it still went to the wire. That game was back in December and they’ve since lost their 2 road games @ Towson and @ Stony Brook. Despite their 4 straight losses, Hofstra still rates per KenPom as the best team in the CAA and 114th in the country. This team is much better than their record. They are 13-8 on the year overall and all 8 losses have come by 8 points or less with 7 of those coming on the road. Despite playing an overall strength of schedule nearly 100 spots higher than Charleston, Hofstra has the better straight FG% numbers both offensive and defensively. They are the much better offense efficiency wise and the 2 defense are almost dead even when it comes to efficiency. The Pride should have a big advantage from beyond the arc where they shoot 38% on the year (20th in the country) while Charleston only makes 31% (307th). They also hit 77% of their FT’s if they need to ice this one late. Our power ratings have the Pride as a 7 point favorite in this game and we’re getting some nice value with their losing streak playing a factor and Charleston has won 8 of their last 10 which has also pushed this number lower than it should be. Absolute must win for Hofstra and we’ll lay it.

#740 ASA PLAY ON Washington St -1.5 over Seattle, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - Revenger for Washington State who lost @ Seattle back on December 30th by a final score of 69-55. The Cougars shot well below their season averages across the board in that making only 30% of their shots (they average 47%), just 15% of their 3’s (they average 36%) and only 57% of their FT’s (they average 73%). Wazzu dominated the boards in that game gathering 50% of their misses and totaling 50 boards to just 23 for Seattle. We don’t expect that to change in this game as the Redhawks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation ranking outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Expect the Cougars to handle the glass again giving them multiple extra possessions. What we do expect to change in Washington State’s terrible shooting from the first match up. At home they hit over 48% on the season, 37% from deep while averaging 80 PPG. Seattle’s offense has been poor ranking 11th in the West Coast Conference (out of 12 teams) averaging a poor 0.93 PPP in league play. They are also 11th in eFG%, 10th in 3 point FG%, and making only 69% of the FT’s in WCC play. Seattle has been held under 60 points in nearly half of the WCC games (4) and they are 0-4 on the road in conference play. On the other hand, since their loss vs Seattle in which they scored only 55 points, Wazzu has scored at least 78 points in 6 of 7 games. The only team to hold them below during that stretch was Gonzaga which is also the Cougars only home conference loss this season. These 2 have met just 5 times since 1990 (all from 2017 to current) and the home team has won all 5 meetings. We like Washington State to get the win here.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks +10.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 8pm ET - Scheduling and rest will play an important role in tonight’s outcome between these two Eastern Conference foes. Philly is playing the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in four days, 4th in six days. Milwaukee had their most recent game cancelled with poor weather so they’ve had 4 full days off going into tonight. The Bucks have covered 6 of their last 8 in that scenario dating back to 2023. Granted, the Bucks will be without Giannis tonight who is expected to miss the next 6 weeks with an injury but there is still enough talent on this roster to keep tonight’s game within double-digits. Milwaukee is 11-12 ATS on the road this season with an average negative margin of -4.9ppg, good enough for a cover in this one. The Sixers are 11-14 ATS at home this season with an average MOV of -0.8ppg. Philadelphia doesn’t shoot it great at 45.6% (26th) which makes it difficult to cover big numbers. In fact, the 76ers have only been double-digit chalks 5 times this season. Within the past 2 weeks the 76ers were -7 at home against the Pacers and won by 9-points. The Bucks without Giannis grade out better than Indiana. The Bucks have been double-digit dogs just 3 times this season and they’ve covered all three. Grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 8:10 pm ET - Why are the Lakers favored here? This line makes absolutely no sense given the current play of both teams. Chicago has won 4 straight games and 6 of their last eight. Included in that run are impressive wins over the Clippers, T’Wolves and most recently the Celtics. In fact, in the games against the Celtics on Saturday the Bulls were +3.5-points at home and Boston grades out significantly higher in our power rating than the Lakers. Chicago has the 3rd best average scoring differential in the NBA over the past 5-games at +11.0ppg. In that same stretch of games, they have the best overall eFG% at 60.9% and tonight they face a Lakers D that is 25th in defensive net rating on the season. L.A. ranks 27th in opponents’ FG% allowed at 48.6% and is 25th in 3PT% D. The Bulls are top 10 in both overall team FG% for the year and 3PT%. The Lakers are coming off a win in Dallas on Saturday which was a meaningful game to Luka against his old mates. The Lakers are just 3-6 SU in their last nine road games and the 3 wins aren’t overly impressive coming against the Mavs, Nuggets w/out Jokic and Pelicans. Chicago has won 7 of their last eight at home. Back the Bulls in this one.

Italian Serie A - #210337 ASA PLAY ON Udinese Goal Line Pick'em (-110) over Hellas Verona, Monday at 2:45 PM ET - We go with the goal line here as that means a draw would be a push for our bet.  Of course we make this bet expecting the win for Udinese but it is nice to have that extra safety net of a draw being a push.  Hellas Verona is struggling badly and now just lost their best playmaker on offense too as Geovane ended up signing with Napoli!  The hosts are mired in a 6-match winless run with 4 losses and 2 draws in their last 6 matches.  Udinese is off a loss to a tough Inter Milan side but this followed a stretch in which they lost only twice in six matches and they are going to take advantage of facing a struggling team here.  The home team has only won once in the last seven meetings between these clubs and we see that trend continuing here as the slide for Hellas Verona is made even worse after losing Geovane.  Road team gets the win!  Bet Udinese on the goal line. 

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Brooklyn Nets, 9 :10pm ET - Even without Kawhi Leonard we like the Clippers minus the points over the reeling Nets. These two teams are heading in direct opposite directions right now with the Clippers on a 14-3 SU streak, the Nets are 2-12 SU their last 14. L.A. is 7-1 SU their last eight at home with a net rating of +9.5, the 3rd best differential in the NBA over that span of games. The Clippers an eFG% of 55.9% in that same 8-game stretch and have been shooting lights out. When it comes to Net ratings, only the Jazz have a worse number than the Nets who are minus -10.2 over their last 15 games. Brooklyn has an average loss margin of -9.9ppg over that same 15-game period. The Clippers 8-1 SU streak at home is really impressive when you consider 7 of those eight wins all came by 8 or more points. Even without Leonard tonight we like the Clippers to notch a double-digit win over the struggling Nets.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 5:30 pm ET - The Warriors season took a significant hit when they lost Jimmy Butler for the season to a knee injury. Contrary to what you might think, the immediate impact of his loss has come on the defensive end of the court as they’ve given up 145 and 123 points in their last two games. Those numbers came against two teams that rank in the bottom of the league in offensive net ratings (Dallas, Toronto). Minnesota is mired in their own losing streak that currently stands at 4 games, but in their defense three of those came against a red hot Bulls team, the Spurs and the Rockets. The Wolves are the 6th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.184-points per possession and rank 10th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.136PPP. In fact, the Wolves are one of only three teams in the NBA to rank top 10 in both oEFF and dEFF. Not only will we see a continued decline in the Warriors defensive statistics, but they’ll suffer offensively too without Butlers 20ppg and 5.6rpg. Minnesota clearly gets up for games against the Warriors as they’ve now won 5 straight in the series and all of those W’s have come by 5 or more points. Lay it here with Minnesota.

#102 ASA PLAY ON Denver Broncos +4.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 3 PM ET - The Broncos lost starting QB Nix to an ankle injury in the Divisional round and he is done for the season. They now turn to back up Jarrett Stidham who is a 6 year NFL veteran and has been the back up for 3 years in Denver so he’s more than familiar with head coach Sean Payton’s system. We like the fact that the Bronco staff has a full week to get him ready and set up a gameplan and the New England defense really doesn’t know what they are preparing to face. This line has moved too much based on that injury in our opinion. Denver was going to be a 1.5 to 2 point favorite vs New England with Nix at QB and now +4.5? That’s nearly a TD move and let’s face it, Nix is a pretty average QB ranking 25th in completion percentage, 25th in passer rating, and 15th in QBR. This team leans on their defense and that hasn’t changed. They rank #1 in YPP allowed, #2 in YPG allowed and rushing YPG allowed, and #3 in scoring. Denver is also the best pass rushing team in the NFL (sacks per game and sack percentage) and the Pats have really struggled with that so far in the playoffs. After facing a number of poor defenses this year due to their light schedule (worst in the NFL), New England finally faced 2 high level defenses in the Chargers and Texans in the playoffs (the 2 best defenses they’ve faced this season) and allowed 10 combined sacks and 16 TFL’s in those games. They’ll struggle to keep QB Maye clean in this one and running on this Denver team is tough as they allow just 96 YPG rushing (2nd in the NFL). Last week Maye had only 168 yards passing and the Pats totaled only 248 yards on 3.9 YPP but benefited from 5 Houston turnovers including a pick 6. The Patriots now go on the road for the first time in the playoffs with Maye making his first ever playoff road start vs one of the best defenses in the league. NFL playoff home dogs of 4 points or more are a perfect 9-0 ATS over the last 50 years and home teams in the AFC Championship round are 30-15 SU. The Broncos also have an extra day of rest playing last Saturday (Pats played on Sunday) and while that may not seem like a huge deal, teams with the extra rest in the Championship round are 27-17 SU and if they are at home that improves to 21-7. We think this game goes to the wire and we like Denver and the points at home.

#740 ASA PLAY ON Idaho -2 over Portland State, Saturday at 5 PM ET - Portland State sits in first place in the Big Sky with a perfect 6-0 record. Problem is, they’ve played the easiest schedule in the conference having faced only 1 of the top 5 teams in the league per KenPom and that was a 3 point home win vs Northern Colorado. The overall combined conference record of the teams they’ve beaten in the Big Sky this year is just 12-28. They have 3 road wins in conference play but all have come vs the bottom half of the league with 2 coming in OT and the other by 4 points. Their most recent game came @ Eastern Washington on Thursday night which was a 4 point Portland State win vs an EWU team that has a 4-15 record. The Vikings will now be on the road again taking on Idaho less than 48 hours after playing @ Eastern Washington. Idaho is off a home win on Thursday so they are in a much better situational spot playing their 2nd straight home game. The Vandals are 7-1 at home this year including a win over Montana State who is rated as the best team in the Big Sky per KenPom. Their only home loss came vs Montana, who is 5-2 in the league, in a game the Grizzlies shot 50% from the field compared to 39% for Idaho and the Vandal made only 4 of 23 from beyond the arc. Uncharacteristic of a team that shoots over 50% and home and makes 41% of their triples. In that loss home loss, Idaho was a 4.5 point favorite vs a Montana team that actually ranks a few spots higher than this Portland State team yet they are laying a lighter number here. Value is on Idaho in this game. The Vikings are overvalued because of their conference record and taking a look over their entire season they only have 1 win vs a team ranked in the top 200 (Idaho is 189th). We’ll take the Vandals at home in this one.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We like taking a strong look at very good teams coming off a loss and that’s what we have here with Purdue. The Boilers lost @ UCLA 69-67 on Tuesday in a game where the Bruins shot 57% from the field (45% for Purdue) and 45% from beyond the arc (26% for Purdue). Even with the big advantage in shooting percentages, the Bruins led for only 24% of the game and needed a 3 pointer with just 8 seconds left to get the win. The Boilers are now back at home where they are 10-1 this season (only loss to Iowa St) and 39-3 since the start of the 2023 season. Since the start of the 2021 season, when Purdue is at home and coming off a loss the previous game they are 12-1 SU winning by an average margin of +18 PPG and 9 of those 12 wins have come by double digits. They are facing an Illinois team that has won 8 in a row but will be shorthanded in this game. They just lost their starting PG Boswell (14 PPG) who is not only their veteran leader but also one of the better defensive guards in the Big 10. He injured his hand in practice leading up to their most recent game at home vs Maryland and will be out at least a month. The Illini were lucky to be at home and facing one of the worst teams in the Big 10 on Wednesday and they picked up a win. Now on the road in this situation without Boswell will make it very tough. Without Boswell, they really don’t have a true point guard with any experience on the roster which will make it very tough containing Purdue’s Braden Smith, one of the top PG’s in the country. This is a revenge game from last year as the Illini took the only meeting (in Champaign) by a final score of 88-80. Since the start of the 2009 season, these 2 Big 10 rivals have met 11 times in West Lafayette with the Boilermakers winning 10 of those games. We’ll lay the small number with Purdue at home on Saturday.

#782 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech +1.5 over Houston, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Texas Tech continues to be undervalued in our opinion and they are a very dangerous team, especially at home. We were on Tech last weekend at home vs a high level BYU team and the Red Raiders coasted to a 14 point win. Tech was a 3.5 point favorite in that game and here they are getting points at home vs a Houston team that is only ranked 10 spots higher than BYU per KenPom. These 2 already met this season @ Houston earlier this monthwith the Cougars winning a tight one 69-65. The Cougs led for only 37% of that game a thome and actually trailed for 10 of the final 12 minutes of that game. Houston was favored by 7 to 7.5 in that game so this one should be a pick-em or Tech -1 in our opinion (and based on our power ratings). The Raiders are 15-4 on the season with all of their losses coming away from home (road or neutral) vs high level opponents (Houston, Purdue, Illinois, and Arkansas). They are 10-0 at home this season and 25-3 here since the start of last season. Houston is 17-1 but this will easily be their toughest game of the season in our opinion. They’ve only played 2 true road games on the year @ Cincinnati and @ Baylor who both rank outside the top 45 per KenPom. The Red Raiders are the better shooting team ranking 29th in eFG% and 13th in 3 point FG% while Houston ranks 147th and 166th respectively in those 2 key stats. Defensively, Houston has better defensive numbers, however Tech has jumped into the top 30 in defensive efficiency playing great on that end of the court over their last 8 games. The Raiders have now held 8 straight opponents below their season offensive efficiency averages and they held the Cougars to 1.04 PPP in their first meeting in Houston, well below their average of 1.23 PPP. Texas Tech already has high level wins this season over Duke and BYU and we expect them to pull the “upset” on Saturday.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers -1.5 vs. Miami Heat, 10:10pm ET - I knew this was a bad number immediately and the Heat shouldn’t be favored on the road against the Blazers and to no surprise the line moved quickly to Portland as the favorite. The Blazers are playing well right now with an 8-2 SU record in their last ten games overall and they’ve won 7 of their last eight at home. Portland has the 8th best Net rating of +5.3 in the NBA over that 10-games span. On the flip side, the Heat are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games and they have the 26th worst Net rating in that time frame of -5.9. Miami has been even worse on the road in recent games with a 1-4 SU record their last 5 away from home with a negative Net rating of minus -13.7. Earlier this season the Heat were +3.5 points at home against the Blazers and won 136-131. This time around it’s the home team Blazers that notch the win.

#792 ASA PLAY ON William & Mary +1.5 over UNC Wilmington, Thursday at 7 PM ET - UNCW has an impressive 17-2 overall record (5-0 in the CAA) but they are drastically overvalued right now in our opinion. Their strength of schedule for the year is 357th and they haven't faced a single team this year ranked in the top 145 per KenPom. Not only that, 13 of their 19 opponents so far this year are currently ranked outside the top 200. William and Mary will be the highest rated team they’ve faced this season (142nd). In CAA play they’ve faced the easiest strength of schedule thus far, not facing a single team in the top 6 of the conference (per KenPom) until tonight. W&M is the 2nd highest rated team in the Colonial and in need of a win after losing 3 of their last 4 games. All of their losses have come on the road/neutral (5-6 record) but W&M is a perfect 7-0 at home this season. The Tribe are one of the top shooting teams in the country (top 55 in FG%) and at home they have been fantastic offensively shooting almost 54% and scoring 93 PPG. UNCW has played 1 top 150 team on the road this year and lost (@ Kent State) and their 3 CAA road games have come vs 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference. This team is overdue to get clipped and we like William & Mary to win this one at home.

#744 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -14.5 over Fresno State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This one could get ugly in our opinion. We’re getting a very good team at home and coming off a tight loss @ San Diego State 83-79. That pushed SDSU to the top of the MWC with a 7-0 record while New Mexico, the 2nd highest rated team in the conference, dropped to 5-2. The Lobos bounced back nicely after their first MWC loss to beat Wyoming by 20 points at home and we see a similar result for tonight. They are a perfect 3-0 at home in league play with their wins coming 23, 23, and 20 points and 2 of those wins were vs top 100 teams (Wyoming & Grand Canyon). Their opponent tonight, Fresno State, ranks 139th and is the 3rd worst team in the conference per KenPom’s power ratings. The Bulldogs are coming off back to back home wins as underdogs vs Wyoming and CSU and this could be a tough spot for them. They are 1-4 on the road this season with their only win coming vs San Jose State who is the 2nd worst team in the MWC. The Dogs are not a great shooting team including from deep where they make just 31% of their triples (303rd in the country). This is a bad match up vs an athletic, high level defense in New Mexico. The Lobos rank 29th in defensive efficiency, 51st in eFG% allowed, 18th in 3 point FG% allowed and 22nd in scoring defense allowing just 67 PPG & only 63 PPG at home. Fresno also turns the ball over a lot at almost 20% (313th) and they are up against it tonight as NM creates turnovers at a high rate (20%). That should lead to a number of extra possessions for the Lobos. The closest comparison to New Mexico defensively in the conference would be San Diego State and Fresno scored only 52 points, lost that game by 19 points (trailed by 29 in the 2nd half) and coughed the ball up at a 23% rate. The last 2 years here at the Pit, New Mexico was favored by 21 and 17 points vs Fresno State and won those games by 28 and 21 points respectively. Now we’re getting them at a much lower number. New Mexico rolls in this game.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Tulsa -5.5 over Memphis, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Tulsa (3-2 in the AAC) sits one game behind Memphis (4-1) so they can ill afford to lose this game at home. Tulsa is 15-3 overall and despite their 2 conference losses they rank as the best team in the AAC per KenPom (62nd nationally) by quite a wide margin (18 spots higher than 2nd best team South Florida). 2 of their 3 losses have come by 5 points or less. The Golden Hurricanes are one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 10th in eFG% and 2nd in the country from beyond the arc making just over 41%. They are in the top 35 in scoring putting up 88 PPG and at home that number jumps to 97 PPG. Let’s not leave out the FT line as Memphis fouls a lot (22% of opponents points come from the charity stripe) and Tulsa makes 79% of their freebies compared to 68% for the Tigers. Memphis is a poor offensive team this season ranking 250th in eFG% and 213th in 3 point FG%. They also turn the ball over at a very high rate of 20% (337th in the country). The Tigers defense has been very solid this year but their defensive road numbers have dropped off a cliff compared to their home numbers. They allow opponents to shoot just 37% at home and that number rises to 46% in their road games. Their 3 point defense at home allows just 24% however on the road that jumps to almost 37%. Not great facing one of the best shooting teams in the country. Lastly, scoring wise Memphis allows 67 PPG at home on 0.90 PPP and 80 PPG on the road on 1.12 PPP. The Tigers are just 1-6 in their games away from home this year (road & neutral) with their only win coming by 6 points @ Rice who ranks as the 3rd worst team in the conference. This is a game Tulsa has been waiting for as they’ve lost 5 straight vs Memphis with their last win coming in 2021. Even though Memphis had much higher rated teams than they do now for those 5 games, 3 of them were decided by 3 points or less. Tulsa is the better team this year and we’ll lay it.

#660 ASA PLAY ON Missouri +1.5 over Georgia, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot for Mizzou coming off a road loss @ LSU facing UGA who is coming off a big home win vs Arkansas. We’re getting excellent value here on the Tigers at home where they are 11-0 this season including wins over high level opponents Florida & Auburn. In fact, the Gators currently rank 9th per KenPom and have only 1 loss since December 9th and that was @ Missouri. The Tigers have one of the largest home/road dichotomies in the country averaging 89 PPG at home and just 68 PPG on the road. Their average margin of their home games is +20 PPG while on the road they are -8 PPG. Missouri is one of the best shooting teams in the country hitting 51% of their shots (13th nationally) but at home that number jumps to almost 56% including 39% from 3. The only 2 teams in the country that shoot a higher percentage in their home games are Arizona and Gonzaga. UGA has only played 3 true road games this season and while they are 2-1 in those games, their 2 wins came vs South Carolina (2nd lowest rated team in the SEC) in a game they only led for 33% of the time and vs Florida State who is 7-11 and rated 112th nationally. Their one good opponent on the road was @ Florida who rolled the Bulldogs 92-77. The Dawgs have not had much success on the road in SEC play winning just 7 of their conference road 38 games since the start of the 2021 season. We like Missouri to win this one at home.

ASA play on: Chicago Bulls -3.5 vs. LA Clippers, 8PM ET - The Clippers are on the second night of a back-to-back after playing in Washington on Monday, and they've struggled significantly in these situations this season. They've gone 1-5 straight up when playing without rest, with an average loss margin of -6.3 points per game on the second day of a back-to-back — that's a clear fatigue and performance drop-off for a road-weary squad. Meanwhile, the Bulls are rolling at home. They just crushed the Nets by 22 points on Sunday, extending their current home winning streak to 3 straight. Chicago has won 5 of their last 6 at the United Center. We like the Bulls at home here.

ASA NBA play on Houston Rockets -4 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8pm ET - The biggest game on the docket tonight is this one and we will be on the home team minus the points. San Antonio is at a clear scheduling disadvantage here having played last night against the Jazz. This will also be the Spurs 3rd game in 4 nights, 4th in six days AND 7th in eleven days. Absolutely a horrible schedule situation for San Antonio. Meanwhile the Rockets have been at home since Jan 13th and have 1 day rest for tonight. Houston is 14-3 SU on their home court and the three losses have come to the three best teams in the NBA (Det, OKC, Denver) who have a combined 96-32 record. The Rockets average Margin of Victory at home is +9.1ppg this season. The Spurs are a very good road team at 13-8 SU this season but this is a tough spot. Plus, they beat the Rockets earlier this season and hold a 3.5 game lead in the division. The Rockets have an efficiency edge defensively, the Spurs have a slight advantage offensively. The advantage the Rockets can use to their advantage tonight will be 3-point shooting. The Rockets have the 6th best 3PT% (37%) going up against a Spurs D that allows 36.1% (18th). The home team has won and covered 4 of the last five in this State rivalry.

#882 ASA PLAY ON Northern Colorado -2.5 over Montana St, Monday at 8 PM ET - Northern Colorado has lost 7 of their last 9 games and they are in desperate need of a win at home tonight. In their most recent game they blew an 18 point lead with under 10:00 minutes remaining in the game in an OT loss @ Sacramento State. Montana State, on the other hand, comes in winning 6 of their last 7 games giving us some nice line value here on Northern Colorado. Rough situational spot for Montana State as well as they just played host to their arch rival Montana on Saturday (48 hours ago) and picked up a win. That’s always their biggest games (play twice a year) of the season and even more so this year as the Bobcats lost both meetings with Montana last year so they were ultra focused on getting a win on Saturday. This is absolutely a letdown spot for Montana State on the road where they are 3-7 on the season in a short turnaround. MSU’s 3 road wins have come against teams that are all ranked 225th or lower per KenPom (Northern Colorado ranks 171). They’ll definitely get the Bears best effort at home here after losing @ Montana State on January 1st. The Bobcats made 10 three point shots in that win vs a Northern Colorado team that ranks top 25 in defending the arc allowing 6 made 3’s per game on 29% shooting. We don’t expect a duplicate shooting performance from Montana State on the road where they make only 32% of their triples compared to 37% at home. Northern Colorado is a very good offensive team ranking top 50 in shooting %, 3 point FG%, and scoring. At home they are hitting 52% of their shots, 39% of their 3s, and averaging 89 PPG. The Bears get their revenge from a few weeks ago vs a Montana State team that might not be completely focused on this one.

#287 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +7.5 over Indiana, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - The Hoosiers have been good to us in their playoff run (we used them in both games and won) but now they’re getting too much respect in our opinion. From a pure line value situation, the Canes are definitely the play here. Indiana was a 7.5 point favorite in their first CFP game vs Alabama who we have power rated a full TD less then the Canes. But in this game, Miami is a larger dog than Bama was vs IU? In their most recent game, the Hoosiers were 3.5 point favorite vs Oregon, a team we have rated almost dead with Miami yet the Cants are getting 5 more points in this game? You get the point. Now the Hoosiers rolled in those 2 games but Alabama wasn’t good enough to be in the playoffs and shouldn’t have been with 3 losses. The Oregon win got out of control quickly with IU taking a pick 6 to the house on the first play of the game and on top of that had TD drives of 3 yards, 4 yards, and 19 yards following Duck turnovers. The Hoosiers jumped out to a big lead because of that and Oregon was chasing the whole game and it basically took the Duck rushing attack out of play. From a pure yardage vantage point, the Ducks actually outgained IU 378 to 362. Let’s not discount what Miami has done in the CFB. Won @ Texas A&M, beat Ohio State, and then topped an Ole Miss team that beat Georgia in their previous CFP game. They’ve definitely had the tougher route in the playoffs to this point and proven they can take down anyone. The Canes defense is elite allowing 44 points in their 3 playoff games (14 PPG). Miami is as good as any team in the country on the offensive and defensive lines so we don’t see IU with an advantage there as they had in their first 2 games. If the Hurricanes can establish a running game, they’ve averaged 175 YPG rushing in their 3 playoff games, and not turn the ball over they’ve got a shot at the upset. Veteran QB Beck can definitely do enough to keep them in this game if complimented with an adequate run game. Let’s also not forget, this game is in Hard Rock Stadium which is Miami’s home field. The Canes were tabbed as underdogs in 3 of their 15 games this season and won all 3 outright. They are as talented as any team in the country and we think they give Indiana a run here. Take the points.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 1pm ET - One of my rules on this date is to back the Hawks who are 23-11 SU their last 34 on MLK day. It just so happens that we get a great situational bet too as the Hawks are off a blowout loss to the Celtics on Saturday. The Hawks lost by 26-points in that game, but it wasn’t that close as the Celtics led by as many as 43 points. Today they bounce back against a struggling Bucks team that needs to fire their head coach and the GM who hired him. That’s a story for another day. The Hawks have the slightly better efficiency differential overall on the season at -0.9 compared to the Bucks at minus -1.4. The Bucks live and die by the 3-pointer but the Hawks allow 35.6% from deep which ranks 14th in the league. Atlanta has added scoring with McCollum and Kispert who are both great compliments for the 8th best 3PT% shooting team in the NBA. The Bucks don’t defend the arc well ranking 23rd in 3PT% D. In this early matinee we like the home team Hawks.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -2.5 vs. Portland Trailblazers, 9 PM ET - Both teams are currently playing well right now but we like the Kings in this situation as the Blazers are in a tough scheduling spot. Portland played a big game against the Lakers last night and will be playing their 3rd game in four days. Sacramento meanwhile was off yesterday and have been at home since Jan 11th. The Kings have played without All-Star center Sabonis for most of the season but he’s back now along with Zach LaVine who missed time. Sacto has won 4 straight games and 3 of those four were legit as they came against the Lakers, Knicks and Rockets. Portland is playing well too with a 7-2 SU record in their last nine games but they will be missing a key offensive piece in this game with Avdija not expected to play as of this writing. Portland isn’t a great road team to begin with at 9-12 SU with an average loss margin of -4.9ppg. The Kings are playing with double revenge here after losing to the Blazers twice already this season. Lay the short number with Sacramento.

#792 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -2.5 over BYU, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Texas Tech is an extremely dangerous team, especially at home. They are 13-4 on the season with all 4 of their losses coming away from home (road or neutral) vs high level opponents. 3 of their losses have come vs teams ranked in KenPom’s top 11 (Purdue, Houston, and Illinois). They are 9-0 at home this season and 24-3 here since the start of last season. The Red Raiders already beat Duke on a neutral court in NYC (MSG) so they are good enough to beat anyone. The Cougars come in with a near perfect 16-1 record but this team is ready to get clipped in our opinion. They’ve been close to getting upset recently holding on to beat an OK at best Utah team (lowest rated team in the Big 12) by 5 and then coming from behind at home to beat TCU 76-70 on Wednesday night. In that win, BYU trailed at home for 53% of the game and held on for a tight win despite getting the friendly whistle at home making 11 more FT’s than the Horned Frogs. The Cougs 2 conference road games were vs KSU and Utah, the 2 lowest rated teams in the Big 12, and those are their only 2 true road games of the entire season. They’ll be walking into a hornet’s nest here as the students are back for Tech and a huge crowd is expected. The Red Raiders offense is as good as any on the country (18th in efficiency) and they are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the country (24th). Head coach McCasland has always been one of the best defensive coaches in the country and after a slow start on that end of the court, Tech has been really good on that end over their last 6 games. They’ve held each team during that stretch below their offensive efficiency averages and all 6 of their opponents rank in the top 90 on offensive efficiency. BYU has another match up with Utah, their arch rival, on deck and we like Tech to take them down on Saturday.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -3 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - We like the situation here for the Celtics and will lay the short number with the road favorite. Both teams last played Thursday on the road as the Celtics were at Miami and the Hawks were in Portland. Boston beat the Heat 119-114, the Hawks lost to the Blazers 101-117. Atlanta is in a much tougher scheduling situation here though. Since Jan 2nd they have played 8 games, seven of which were on the road, the last 4 were on the West Coast. Boston is flying under the radar right now at 23-13 SU on the season with the 3rd best efficiency differential in the league at +7.3. The C’s are 13-8 ATS on the road this season with an average plus/minus of +6.8ppg. We like what the Hawks did in trading Trae Young for a proven scoring vet like McCollum and it will pay dividends down the road, just not in this situation. Atlanta is 17th in eDIFF at -0.9 and have a 7-11 ATS home record this season, minus -2.4ppg. These two teams have similar offensive numbers but the Celtics defense is significantly better than the Hawks. Lay the short number with Boston.

#759 ASA PLAY ON Texas A&M +5.5 over Texas, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Texas is off a huge upset home win over Vanderbilt on Wednesday in a game they shot 53% overall, 41% from deep, and 86% from the FT line, all well above their season averages. They possibly benefited from a Vandy peak ahead to their huge game today vs Florida. The Horns haven’t been all that impressive this year. They already have 2 home losses, including vs Mississippi State who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the SEC, along with a 19 point loss vs Virginia. The Aggies are coming off an OT loss @ Tennessee (on Tuesday so an extra day) in a game they led 75% of the time. It was an impressive performance vs a Vol team that has smoked everyone at home, including this Texas team, prior to A&M taking them to the wire despite making 10 fewer FT’s. In their other SEC road game the Aggies beat a very good Auburn team so they’ve proven they can get it done vs high level teams on the road. A&M is a very good shooting team (24th in eFG%) and they make almost 37% of their 3’s. They should make hay from deep in this game vs a Longhorn D that allows opponents to make 35% of the triples (235th nationally). Defensively the pesky Aggies create turnovers at the highest rate in the SEC and 17th most in the country. Texas struggles to protect the ball ranking 11th in offensive turnover rate in SEC play and that should lead to extra possessions for Texas A&M. Since starting the season 2-2, TAMU has won 11 of their last 13 games with their only 2 losses during that run coming in OT vs SMU and Tennessee, 2 teams both rated higher than this Texas team per KenPom. The Horns are just 3-6 this year vs top 100 teams and we like A&M to cover and have a great chance to win this game outright.

#626 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -4 over UCLA, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We have a huge situational edge for OSU in this one. They are coming off a loss @ Washington last Sunday (we were on Washington) and now they’ve had the entire week off to rest up and get ready for this game. They lost starting center Tilly (12 PPG) in the first half of that game to a head injury. He’s had a week to rest and head coach Jake Diebler is confident he’ll be OK on Saturday. On the other side, UCLA is in a really rough spot here. Their last 5 games they played @ Iowa (loss), @ Wisconsin (loss), came home for 1 game vs Maryland and won, then had to travel to the east coast to face Penn State on Wednesday and now Ohio State today. That’s 5 games in 15 days with 4 coming on the road all with long travel. They are coming off a win on Wednesday @ PSU but caught a break when the Nittany Lions leading scorer Dillone injured his ankle 8 minutes into the game and did not return. On top of that, Penn State made only 4 of 22 from 3 (18%) and the Bruins were 21 of 21 from the FT line. UCLA played that game without leading scorer Skyy Clark (3rd game in a row he missed) and he is highly doubtful in this one. They’ve also had the flu running through their team this week with a few players bed ridden which could definitely be an issue here. In their 2 recent road games @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin, 2 very similarly rated teams to OSU, they lost by 13 (trailed by 24) and by 8 (trailed by 20) respectively. The Buckeyes are one of the top offensive teams in the country ranking 25th in FG% while averaging 83 PPG while making 79% of their FTs. Those numbers jump to 52% and 88 PPG on their home court. Since losing Clark, UCLA’s top 3 point shooter, they’ve hit just 19 of 74 from beyond the arc (25%), spanning their last 4 games. Today they face an OSU defense that allows only 29% from deep which is 24th in the country so we expect very little from 3 for the Bruins in this game. They’ve also averaged only 67 PPG over their last 4. We’re not sure they can keep up offensively in this game and with the sickness, injuries, and terrible travel schedule, UCLA might not have much left in the tank. Take the Buckeyes.

ASA NBA play on Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 10pm ET - This is a steep price to lay with the Hawks so let’s grab the value tonight with the home team Blazers. Portland has quietly put together a 7-3 SU streak in their last 10 games but have now lost 2 in a row. They are working on some chemistry issues with Jrue Holiday and Robert Williams work their way back into the rotation. Also, Deni Avdija is out with an injury so picking up his points/assists must come from the rest of the starters. Atlanta made a big trade and sent Trae Young to the Wizards for CJ McCollum and Cory Kispert which is going to be a big upgrade for the Hawks moving forward. Atlanta is coming off a 116-141 loss to the Lakers on Tuesday night as their defense allowed the Lakers to shoot 58% overall and 56% from the 3-point line. Back to the value in the number. Portland was recently +5.5 at home against the Knicks, +6.5 and +7 versus the Rockets. Atlanta grades out much lower than those two teams in our power ratings, especially considering the current play of each team right now. The Blazers have lost 2 straight games but prior had a 5 game winning streak with W’s over Houston (2x) and the Spurs. In the Hawks last 10 games they were plus +2.5 and +3.5 at Toronto which is a comparable team in this situation. The efficiency differential between these two teams is close. Portland has an eDIFF of +2.7, Atlanta is +3.6. Grab the points with the home dog in this one.

#849 ASA PLAY ON UC Riverside +5.5 over Long Beach State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - These 2 have the exact same 6-11 records on the season but UC Riverside has played the tougher schedule (83rd SOS). UCR is 1-4 in Big West play but they’ve faced the toughest slate in conference play having already played the 3 highest rated teams in the conference, Hawaii, UC San Diego, and UC Santa Barbara. Half of the Highlanders wins this season have come on the road and their stats away from home are almost identical to their home stats. We’re getting some value here with this number because UCR has lost 5 in a row, while Long Beach has won 3 of their last 4. Riverside’s last 2 losses have gone to the wire losing by 1 and 3 points vs Cal St Bakersfield and UC San Diego. Meanwhile, LBSU hasn’t created margin in any of their wins this year vs D1 opponents. They have just 4 wins vs D1 teams and those have come by 3, 4, 6, and 8 points. They are a poor defensive team ranking 338th in opponent’s FG%, 349th defending the arc, and 308th in PPG allowed (77 PPG). The Beach also struggles to shoot the 3 ranking 309th barely making 30% of their triples. Tough to lay this number with a team that is bad on defense and can’t make 3’s. Riverside has been very competitive when traveling to Long Beach with a 2-3 SU record (3-2 ATS) with their 3 losses here coming by 1, 2, and 8 points. Too many points as we look for this one to go down to the wire.

#748 ASA PLAY ON Penn State +3.5 over UCLA, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - Really rough scheduling spot for UCLA in this one. They were @ Iowa (loss), @ Wisconsin (loss), came home to beat Maryland (2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10) and now back to the east coast to take on Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 0-5 in Big 10 play but they are better than their record. 4 of their 5 losses were by 8 points or less vs top tier Big 10 teams Purdue (lost by 8), Illinois (lost by 8), Michigan State (lost by 4), and Michigan (lost by 2). Their most recent home game was vs Michigan (#1 team per KenPom) in a game they lost by 2 but Shot Quality stats had the Nittany Lions winning that game. The Bruins are 1-2 this year in true road games with their only win coming by 2 points @ Washington. If you include their neutral site games UCLA is just 1-5 on the year losing by an average of 8 PPG. PSU is 7-2 at home this year with their only losses coming in tight games vs Michigan State and Michigan, both top 13 teams per KenPom. The Nittany Lions have played the toughest strength of schedule in conference play already facing the 4 highest teams in the conference. UCLA is just 3-2 despite facing the 12th rated SOS in league play. Their most recent win was at home vs Maryland and Shot Quality stats actually had them losing that game at home. The Bruins leading scorer and best 3 point shooter Skyy Clark has missed the last few games with a hamstring issue and he is questionable here. Even is he plays he won’t be 100%. UCLA simply isn’t playing well and this is a guge game for PSU with 3 of the next 4 on the road. We expect them to pick up their first conference win tonight.

#740 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State -2.5 over Central Florida, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - KSU is in desperation mode at home after starting Big 12 play with an 0-3 record. Not a huge surprise as they were an underdog in all 3 games and have faced the 2nd most difficult schedule in conference play and have already faced Arizona & BYU rated 2nd and 11th nationally per KenPom. UCF is 2-1 in league play with their 2 wins coming at home while losing their lone road game at Oklahoma State by double digits. Their most recent game on Sunday was at home vs Cincinnati in a game they won by 1 points but Shot Quality stats had them losing by 12! The Knights have played only 2 true road games this season and have left the state of Florida just 1 time since mid November (a loss at Okla St). They also have a HUGE game on deck this weekend hosting #1 Arizona on Saturday. Since UCF joined the Big 12 a few years ago, these teams have met twice with KSU rolling to an easy win at home 2 years ago and UCF squeaking out a 4 point win at home last year. The Wildcats have also had an extra day to prepare after losing last Saturday @ ASU (by 3 points) while the Knights played on Sunday. UCF has won only 7 of their last 22 road games since the start of the 2023 season and this is a huge home game for the Wildcats where they are shooting over 50% on the year and averaging 89 PPG. We like KSU to cover this short number at home.

English EFL Cup #234006 ASA PLAY ON Chelsea +0.5 (-148) over Arsenal, Wednesday at 3 ET - We expect Chelsea to come up big here at home and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would also be a win since the goal line is at +0.5 goals for the hosts in this one. We do expect the outright win as Chelsea rides the momentum of the recent managerial change but we're glad to have a draw result also being able to produce a winner here! Arsenal would certainly be willing to settle for a draw here as the 2nd leg of this battle will be on their home pitch. Getting a draw on the road then would be just fine for the Gunners. The Blues have only 2 losses in their last 8 games. Arsenal has been hot so they are in strong current form but they have had to settle for a draw in each of their last 3 visits to Stamford Bridge! Chelsea is revitalized by the managerial change and the odds favor the hosts earning at least a draw again in this home battle versus Arsenal! We will take Chelsea on the goal line (+0.5) Wednesday.

#602 ASA PLAY ON Providence +2.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - This is a gigantic home game for Providence who sits with a 1-4 record in the Big East. They are “this close” to having a much better record in league play as 2 of their 4 losses have come in OT vs UConn (blew a 13 point 2nd half lead) and Butler and another loss came by 5 points vs Seton Hall. Their lone win was @ St Johns (77-70 final) who ranks as the 2nd best team in the Big East behind UConn. They’ve shown they are much better than their Big East record beating one of the top 2 teams in the league and losing to the other in OT. Villanova is in the 2nd of back to back road game after squeaking by Marquette 76-73 on Saturday. The Golden Eagles rank as the worst team in the Big East per KenPom and the Shot Quality score had Marquette actually winning that game vs Villanova. The line value is very solid here. We have Providence as a slight favorite and when comparing the line to Villanova’s most recent game, we see the Wildcats were -3.5 @ Marquette and now nearly the same -2.5 @ Providence who ranks almost 50 spots higher than the Golden Eagles. The Friars are one of the best offensive teams in the Big East ranking in the top 80 nationally in both FG% and 3 point FG% while averaging 89 PPG. At home all of those numbers improve and they are averaging 91 PPG. The also make 78% of their FT’s while Vilanova makes only 69% which could be key in what is expected to be a close game. Nova averages just 71 PPG in their road games this year and they are in a possible letdown spot here in their 2nd straight road game with a huge match up on deck vs St Johns. They are 4-1 in the league with 3 wins coming by 8 points or less including vs 2 of the 3 worst teams in the conference (DePaul & Marquette). We like Providence at home in this spot.

#383 ASA PLAY ON LA Chargers +3.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Chargers defense has been lights out this season and we expect them to keep this game close throughout. LA has allowed more than 20 points just once in their last 10 games. They finished the season top 10 in opponents TD’s per drive, yards per drive, and points per drive. Almost 40% of their opponents drives failed to gain a first down which was tops in the NFL. New England had a stellar season but let’s not forget they faced the easiest schedule in the NFL by far. In fact, per the DVOA metric, the Patriot’s schedule this season was the 3rd easiest in NFL history. They faced THREE teams that ended the year with a winning record and lost 2 of those games splitting with Buffalo and losing vs Pittsburgh. If you look at the top 20 DVOA NFL teams this season (advanced metric) the Patriots played only 6 of those teams (least in the NFL) and their largest margin of victory in any of those games was 5 points. It’s been a great season but this is a fairly inexperienced team that isn’t used to being in the playoffs vs a team that has been in the playoffs and has extra motivation after losing in the Wild Card round last year @ Houston. In fact, Wild Card teams that were in the playoffs last season (LA Chargers) and are underdogs vs teams that were not in the playoffs last year (New England) are 21-2 ATS since 2013 covering by an average of more than 7 PPG. Another strong trend we have going for us here is the QB situation. The Pats Drake Maye has had a great season but he’s never played in a playoff game and Justin Herbert has. Those first time playoff QB’s facing a QB that has been in the playoffs are 20-40 both SU & ATS since 2002. Experience at that position matters this time of year. On top of that, the Patriots have to face a legit high level QB which didn’t happen much this season. In fact, they faced a team’s back up QB on a whopping 61% of their defensive snaps this season which was by far the most in the NFL. The Chargers weakness on offense this year was protecting Herbert. They were solid in run blocking (12th in rushing) but not great in pass blocking. That may cost them down the line but shouldn’t be an big issue here vs a New England defense that finished 24th in pressure rate despite playing the lightest schedule in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, New England thrived on big plays and the Chargers defense was one of the best in the NFL at limiting explosive plays this season. If LA can run the ball and not be one dimensional on offense, they have a great shot to win this game outright. We’re getting more than a FG here and we’ll take the points.

#862 ASA PLAY ON Washington -1.5 over Ohio State, Sunday at 6 PM ET - Nice situational set up for the home team here. The Huskies are off back to back road losses @ Indiana and @ Purdue dropping to 1-3 in the Big 10 making this a very important game. They lost both of those games by 10 points but Shot Quality scores had Washington losing by 6 vs Purdue and actually winning the game @ Indiana. UW had won 4 of their previous 5 games prior to their 2 game losing streak. They catch OSU in the 2nd of back to back West Coast games after they topped Oregon on Thursday night. In that win the Buckeyes shot 12% better overall, 10% better from 3, and made 3 more FT’s than the Ducks. OU attempted 8 more shots compared to Ohio State but shot just 33% in the game and were without their 2nd leading scorer Shelstad who averages 16 PPG. The 2nd leg of a long road trip is always tough especially if a team wins the first game, there is a chance they letdown a bit in the 2nd game. We’re getting some line value due to recent results as well. The Buckeyes were just 1.5 point dogs @ Oregon, who was without a key player, and ranked 35 spots below Washington and we’re getting the same number (at the open) here. OSU is 3-1 on the road but their wins have come vs Northwestern (by 4), Rutgers (lowest rated team in the Big 10) and Oregon, all rated lower than this Washington team. Their one road loss was @ Pitt who is rated as the 4th worst team in the ACC currently. The Huskies are 6-1 at home (2 point loss vs UCLA) and shoot 49% and have a +20 PPG margin. They don’t turn the ball over (56th in offensive turnover %) and they should control the boards in this game. Must win for the home team with a small number and we’ll lay it.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8:10pm ET - The health of both teams plays an important role in this handicap as the Bulls have a key component back in the lineup with Coby White, while the Mavs will be without Anthony Davis. Davis, the often injured star, could miss the remainder of the season with a hand injury. Chicago also has the benefit of extra rest coming into this game as their last game was cancelled due to moisture on the floor so the Bulls have been off since the 7th. Dallas on the other hand will be playing their 3rd straight road game with the most recent game coming in Utah on Thursday night. The Mavs have struggled on the road this season with a 4-13 SU record and an average loss margin in those games of minus -5.9ppg. The Bulls have been a much better team at home than on the road with an above .500 record on their home court of 10-9. The Bulls will enjoy a defensive rebound advantage as they rank 4th best in the league in that stat category plus they don’t turn the ball over like the Mavs do. Dallas is 24th in turnover percentage, the Bulls are 9th. Dallas is 1-6 SU this season when playing with a rest disadvantage and they’ve lost those games by an average of -10.3ppg. We like the health and scheduling advantages in this one and will back the home team to win by 6+ points.

#794 ASA PLAY ON UCLA -11.5 over Maryland, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Bruins are back from a road trip that saw them lose back to back games @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin. They lost by 13 vs the Hawkeyes and 8 vs the Badgers but their Shot Quality scores had them losing by 1 @ Iowa and winning @ Wisconsin. They combined to shoot 4 of 31 from beyond the arc in those 2 games (13%) which was an outlier for a team that makes 37% of their triples (40th in the country). We expect them to get back on track here when they shoot over 38% from 3 @ Pauley Pavilion and they are facing a Maryland defense that ranks outside the top 300 defending the arc. The Terps have fallen off a cliff after starting 5-1 they have lost 7 of their last 9 with their only wins during that stretch coming at home vs Wagner (ranked 317th) and Old Dominion (ranked 245th). They only have 2 wins vs teams ranked in the top 240 and those were vs Marquette, who has a record of 6-10, and UNLV, who has a record of 7-7. The Terps are 0-4 in the Big 10 and vs they’ve played 3 games vs the top half of the conference teams and lost those games by 18 @ home vs Indiana, @ Iowa by 19, and at home vs Michigan by 18. UCLA head coach Mick Cronin has been very disappointed with his team’s defensive effort as of late and he let them know it after their road trip. Even with that they are still in the top 60 nationally in defensive efficiency and they allow opponents to shoot just 39% at home. The Bruins will play extra hard on that end of the court and that will be a problem for Maryland who isn’t a great shooting team (299th in eFG%). The Terps allow over 80 PPG on the road this season and UCLA averages 86 PPG at home. The Bruins are 9-0 at home this year with 8 of those wins coming by double digits. We’ll lay it.

#754 ASA PLAY ON Auburn -1 over Arkansas, Saturday at 6 PM ET - We were on Auburn earlier this week at home vs Texas A&M and they blew a 16 point 2nd half lead (with under 14:00 remaining) and lost 90-88. The Aggies shot over 50% in that game and hit 43% of their triples (Auburn hit only 27% from deep) and it still came down to the wire. Their previous game they lost in OT @ UGA and now sit at 0-2 in SEC play and are in must win mode. They’ve actually been quite unlucky as Shot Quality stats had the Tigers winning @ UGA by 9 and then beating A&M by 17! That basically tells us Auburn was getting better shots than their opponents but shot a poor percentage which they did making only 27% from 3 point land in each game. This team could easily be 2-0 right now and we wouldn’t be seeing them as a home dog (we were anticipating this line to flip to Auburn as a small favorite). These teams have obviously changed from last season, but Auburn was a 16 point favorite at home vs the Razorbacks last year and now they started out here as a dog (line opened +1.5). That’s too big of a swing in our opinion. Arkansas is 2-0 in league play and coming off a road win @ Mississippi (lowest rated team in the SEC) on Wednesday so this will be their 2nd of back to back away from home and they have 1 less day to prepare as Auburn lost at home on Tuesday night. This will be just their 3rd true road game of the season and they are 1-1 thus far. Since John Calipari took over the Arkansas program as the start of last season, they are just 5-7 in true road games and they are facing an Auburn team that is 19-3 at home during that same time frame. The Tigers have played one of the toughest schedules in the country (4th SOS) and 4 of their losses have come vs teams ranked in KenPom’s top 11 (Michigan, Arizona, Houston, and Purdue) all away from home or neutral sites. Auburn is a very good offensive team (13th in offensive efficiency) that we expect to bounce back and shoot much better at home tonight. They are also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country (7th) which should lead to extra opportunities. The Tigers have won 4 of the last 5 at home vs Arkansas and we like them in this one.

#375 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams -10.5 over Carolina Panthers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These two met on November 30th in Charlotte and the Panthers pulled the 31-28 win as a 10 point dog. Despite the loss, the Rams dominated the stat sheet averaging 7.4 YPP (their 4th highest mark of the season) to just 5.8 YPP for the Panthers. LA controlled the trenches as well averaging over 7.0 YPC on the ground to just 4.1 for Carolina. Turnovers were the problem for the Rams as they had 3 giveaways to 0 for the Panthers including a 48 yard pick 6. The Panthers offense, which ranks 25th in the NFL in explosive play rate, had TD’s from 35, 33, and 43 yards out which is unlike them. They also converted 10 of their 18 third and fourth down plays which was also out of the norm for an offense that ranks 25th in third down conversion rate. Even with all of that going right for Carolina, they still only won by 3 points. The Rams were uber efficient on offense. They had 8 possessions for the game and if we take away the possessions where they turned the ball over, LA scored TD’s on 4 of their 5 drives. They lead the NFL in scoring, YPP, and EPA per play so we expect a big day from this offense. Carolina ranks 27th, 28th, and 25th in those key offensive metrics. LA had the 2nd best point differential in the NFL at +172 (behind only Seattle) and Carolina actually has a negative point differential at -69 (23rd in the NFL) making them the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential. They also have negative YPG and YPP margins on the season. Lastly, we’re getting grizzled veteran Rams QB Stafford who has started in 10 playoff games in his career vs Carolina QB Young who has never been in a playoff game. QB’s that have never started in the playoff game vs QB’s that have playoff experience are just 20-40 ATS since 2002. On top of that, teams that win the game outright are 69-11 ATS the last 80 Wildcard games. We don’t see the Panthers winning this game or even keeping it close. This is a high number but warranted and we like the Rams by at least 2 TD’s here.

#607 ASA PLAY ON VCU -1.5 over George Mason, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This line speaks volumes. VCU with an 11-5 record is a road favorite vs a George Masion team that is 15-1 on the season. Hmm? That line is telling you who to take in this game and that is VCU. We agree. The Rams are coming off a home loss on Wednesday (we were on VCU) vs a very good St Louis team (ranked 32nd per KenPom). They shot terribly in that game making only 29% of their shots overall and just 25% from deep and despite that the Rams led by 1 point with just over 2:00 minutes remaining vs one of the better mid major teams in the country. That was an outlier for this VCU offense as they are a very good offensive team ranking 54th in offensive efficiency, 62nd in eFG%, 46th in 3 point FG%, while averaging 86 PPG. We look for them to play much better in this game. All 5 of their losses have come vs teams ranked in the top 55 with 4 of those coming vs teams in the top 35. By comparison, George Mason who has a strength of schedule of 346th, has played ONE top 100 team all season and lost that game by double digits vs Va Tech. VCU will be the highest rated team they’ve faced all season. Their 15-1 record is a bit of a mirage at this point which is why they are a home dog in this game. While this game is @ George Mason, they’ve had some close calls vs poor teams this year beating Penn (ranked 217th) by 4, Loyola Maryland (ranked 341st) by 7, and Winthrop (ranked 151st) by 6. Now they take a huge step up in competition vs a VCU team that has beaten them 6 straight times and 14 of the last 17. The Rams have better efficiency numbers both offensive and defensively and they are the better rebounding team. We’re getting VCU off a loss as well which sets this one up very nicely.

#276 ASA PLAY ON Indiana -3.5 over Oregon, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on Indiana over Bama and the Hoosiers dominated 38-3 holding the Crimson Tide outgaining them 407 to 193. IU had twice as many first downs and held the Tide to 1.4 YPC on the ground. Oregon beat Texas Tech 23-0 but the stats in that game were much closer with the Ducks putting up 309 total yards to 215 for Tech. The Red Raiders had 4 turnovers in the game leading to over half of Oregon’s points (13), they missed a FG, and were shutout on downs 3 times. The Ducks defense was very good in that win, however we still are a bit concerned about them on that side of the ball as they gave up 31 points and over 500 yards in their opening round win at home vs James Madison. IU has the better wins this season beating Oregon on the road, topping Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship game and then destroying Bama last week. Oregon’s best win of the season was last week vs Texas Tech and prior to that maybe @ Iowa (IU won at Iowa as well). The Hoosiers already beat Oregon on the road by 10 points (30-20 final) and the Ducks had a pick 6 in that game and still lost at home by double digits. Indiana won the stats by +60 yards and held Oregon to just 81 yards rushing on 2.7 YPC (Hoosiers had 111 yards rushing). Last week the Ducks struggled to run the ball averaging only 1.4 YPC vs Tech (47 rush attempts for just 64 yards) and we think the ground game will be key here which favors Indiana. They are the better running team and defensively they allow just 73 YPG on the ground on 2.8 YPC while Oregon allows 111 on 3.3 YPC. While that’s not a huge difference we like the better team in the trenches in this one. Despite taking care of Oregon handily on the road this year, the Hoosiers still aren’t getting the respect they deserve. IU is and has been the better team all season and we’ll take them here to win, cover, and move onto the National Championship game.

#882 ASA PLAY ON Oakland -14.5 over Cleveland State, Friday at 7 PM ET - Oakland is 8-8 on the year despite playing one of the most difficult schedules in the entire country. Their SOS is rated 12th in the country and they’ve already faced the likes of Michigan State, Houston, Purdue, and Michigan all rated in the top 12 per KenPom. The Grizzlies are on a roll right now winning 7 of their last 10 after losing 5 of their first 6 to start the season. They are ranked as the #1 team in the Horizon League and tonight they are facing a Cleveland State team that ranks as the 2nd worst team in the league and 322nd in the country. The Vikings have faced 7 teams ranked in the top 200 this year (Oakland is 130) and they are 0-7 in those games losing all by at least 15 points including 3 of those games vs teams rated below Oakland. The CSU defense has been abysmal allowing 84 PPG (347th) and ranking 353rd in defensive efficiency. That’s going to be a huge problem vs an Oakland offense that ranks 56th nationally in offensive efficiency which is more than 100 spots higher than any other team in the conference. The Griz are also averaging 84 PPG and that’s all despite playing the 5th best set of defensive efficiency teams in the country. They have only played 4 games at home this year (12 on the road or neutral) and they are 4-0 in those games scoring at least 96 points in all 4. This will be the first opponent Oakland has faced this season that ranks below 300 in defensive efficiency and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they hit triple digits in this game. They like to play fast (41st in tempo) and Cleveland State does as well (135th in tempo) so simply more chances for this Oakland offense to pull away. A blowout is highly possible here.

#816 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico State NM State -3 over Western Kentucky, Thursday at 9 PM ET - New Mexico State is a perfect 6-0 at home this year including an 8 point win over a very good New Mexico team who is 12-3 and ranked 54th per KenPom. The Aggies are also coming off back to back road losses @ FIU and @ Missouri State and they are happy to be at home after playing 7 of their last 7 on the road or at neutral sites. While NMSU has been on the road for the most part as of late, Western Kentucky has been at home for 5 of their last 7 games and off back to back home wins vs Sam Houston St and La Tech. The Hilltoppers have played only 3 true road games this year losing 2 of those by double digits vs 2 teams both ranked lower than New Mexico State (Marshall and Jacksonville St). WKU did win their first road game of the year way back on November 10th @ Eastern Kentucky who is currently 2-11 vs D1 teams this season. The Hilltoppers are bad shooting team and that usually doesn’t bode well on the road. They rank 306th making only 41.8% of their shots and on the road that drops to 35%. They are facing a lock down New Mexico St defense who allows opponents to shoot only 39% this year (18th) while making only 21 FG’s per game (7th). The Aggies have played the stronger schedule and still have better offensive and defensive shooting numbers. These 2 have met 5 times since NMSU joined Conference USA in 2024 and the home team has won all 5 times. Last season the Aggies dominated the Hilltoppers here at home 65-47 as a 4 point favorite and we look for them to win and cover tonight.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -4.5 at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - The Phoenix Suns (21-15) head to FedExForum as 3.5-point favorites against the Memphis Grizzlies (15-20) in a matchup that favors the visitors due to Memphis' fatigue and injury issues. The Grizzlies are coming off a big upset win over the Spurs last night and we predict a letdown. This will also be their second game in as many nights and third in four days. Memphis has also struggled as a home underdog, posting a 7-12 ATS record since the start of last season. On the flip side, we like the Suns to bounce back from a narrow 97-100 loss in Houston a few nights ago, and they've been excellent in this spot with a 10-4 ATS mark this season when coming off a defeat. In those games, Phoenix has won by an average margin of +6.4 points per game. The Suns will also be motivated for payback after dropping a tight 113-114 decision at home to the Grizzlies on October 29th. Adding to the case for Phoenix: Memphis is dealing with a lengthy injury list that could carry over from their January 6th game, including key absences like Ja Morant (calf contusion, out vs. Spurs), Zach Edey (ankle), Brandon Clarke (calf), and others, severely depleting their backcourt and frontcourt depth. The Suns, meanwhile, boast a balanced attack led by Devin Booker (25.7 PPG) and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.

#690 ASA PLAY ON VCU -2 over St Louis, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - St Louis is an impressive 13-1 on the season but they’ve faced a very easy schedule to date. The Billikens SOS is 343rd out of 365 teams and they’ve played only 1 true road game this season. They’ve faced only 2 top 100 teams this year beating Santa Clara by 1 and losing vs Stanford by 1 (both on neutral courts). VCU will actually be the highest rated team St Louis has faced this season. Last year VCU was favored by 10.5 at home vs the Billikens and won by 9 and now we’re getting them right around a pick-em at home. The Rams have already played 4 games vs teams inside the top 60 and while those are their 4 losses (11-4 record), 3 of those games went to the wire vs Utah St, NC State and New Mexico (also lost to Vandy). The teams that have beaten VCU this year have a combined record of 47-9 and all have strength of schedules in the top 120 unlike St Louis. If you look at straight stats, STL has some very impressive overall numbers. However, keep in mind they’ve faced a set off offenses that combines to rank 353rd in efficiency and they’ve played only 1 top 100 offense the entire season. The defenses they’ve faced combine to rank 302nd. Now they face a VCU offense thar ranks 30th in efficiency (the best offense STL has faced this year) and a defense that ranks 76th in efficiency. This is a big home game for the Rams who are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games and they are 23-2 at home since the start of last season. VCU joined the Atlantic 10 conference in 2012 and they are a perfect 9-0 SU at home vs St Louis since then. Let’s lay the small number.

ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings +5.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 11pm ET - This is as much a bet against Dallas as it is on Sacramento. The Kings have lost 5 straight games and 8 of their last ten. In fact, their last win was at Dallas on December 27th 113-107. They were a +3-point home dog in that game and are now catching a premium number with one of their best players returning from injury. Zach LaVine missed the last go around with Dallas but he’s back for the Kings now who desperately need his scoring. The Mavericks have lost 7 straight road games and have a 3-12 SU road record this season yet are laying points here? The Kings trailed the Bucks in their most recent game by as many as 26-points but battled back to make it respectable in the 4th Q. Dallas is the much better defensive team but offensively they are just average which makes it tough for them to win by margin. The Kings have the worst average margin of victory in the NBA at -12ppg, but the Mavs aren’t much better at -4.0ppg. Going back to the start of last season the Kings have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings with Dallas. We expect another tight game in this series tonight.

#656 ASA PLAY ON Wyoming -4.5 over UNLV, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - UNLV has a 7-6 record yet they’ve only left the state of Nevada twice this year with the last time coming back on December 7th. They already have 5 losses vs teams ranked outside the top 100 and if you throw out their loss vs Alabama (lost by 37) the average ranking of the opponents they’ve lost to is 182nd (Wyoming is ranked 103rd per KenPom). The Cowboys will actually be the 4th best team UNLV has faced this season and Wyoming will come into this one with a chip on their shoulder after getting smoked @ New Mexico over the weekend (we were on NM). The Rebels are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country hitting just 28% (336th) and Wyoming defends the are very well allowing just 29% (33rd) so we can expect very little from beyond the arc for UNLV. The Cowboys (10-4 record) are the better shooting team overall and from deep and their PPG margin on the year is +12 (UNLV is +5). At home they are winning by an average of +17 PPG and they are the better FT shooting team (73% to 67%). Wyoming should control the glass here (33rd in rebound rated vs UNLV who is 170th) and their offensive rebounding (49th nationally) should lead to a number of second chances (UNLV 244th in defensive rebounding). The Cowboys have bounced back with wins after their first 3 losses this year, 2 coming by double digits, and we expect them to pick up a home win and cover tonight.

#638 ASA PLAY ON Auburn -6.5 over Texas A&M, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - A&M is 11-3 on the season and Auburn is 9-5 but this is one of the more drastic strength of schedule disparities you’ll see. The Tigers have played the 7th most difficult schedule thus far already facing 8 top 100 teams including 3 ranked in the top 4 nationally per KenPom (Michigan, Arizona, and Purdue). You can also throw in Houston who is ranked 11th. A&M’s strength of schedule ranks 320th and they’ve played half their games (7) vs teams currently ranked 295th or lower. The Aggies haven’t left the state of Texas in over a month and they’ve only played 2 true road games this year @ Pitt (8 point win) and @ Oklahoma State (24 point loss). The Aggies are 1-3 vs top 75 teams with their only win coming at home over the weekend 75-72 vs LSU in a game the Tigers played without guard Dedan Thomas (16 PPG & 7 APG). Auburn is coming off a 4 point OT loss at a very good Georgia team (26th per KenPom) in a game that Shot Quality stats had the Tigers actually winning by 9 points. Auburn has quality wins over St Johns, Oregon, and NC State, all by double digits with 2 of those wins coming away from home. They are also undefeated at home this year and their only 3 losses at home since the start of the 2023 season were vs Kentucky (in 2023), Bama (in OT), and Florida (last year’s National Champion) last year. In their home games this year the Tigers are shooting 54% overall and nearly 40% from deep while averaging 97 PPG. The Aggies have fallen off drastically in their few road games hitting 38% of their shots and scoring 72 PPG (they average 100 PPG at home mainly vs terrible competition). To put the disparity of opponents into perspective, Auburn has faced the 4th most difficult set of offenses this year and the 17th most difficult set of defenses. The Aggies have faced the 260th most difficult set of offenses and the 350th most difficult set of defenses. Auburn won by double digits last year here vs A&M and they are in “need to win” mode coming off a loss. Let’s lay it.

#831 ASA PLAY ON Bradley +5 over Murray State, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We’re getting some nice value here on Bradley facing a Murray State team that is on an 8 game winning streak. 5 of those 8 wins came by single digits and they only double digit wins during that stretch came vs teams ranked 310th and 249th. Bradley was just a 4.5 point dog @ Belmont on Thursday, a team that ranks 30 spots higher than Murray State per KenPom. The Braves lost that game by 10 points with Belmont shooting 55% and making 11 more FT’s. Belmont never led in the 2nd have by double digits until 20 seconds left in the game. We expect the Bradley defense (ranked 103rd in efficiency) to bounce back strong in this game. They create turnovers at a 22% rate (12th in the country) which should lead to extra possessions. Murray State’s offense has very good numbers but they’ve faced a group of defensive teams whose average rank is outside the top 300 in efficiency. The Braves should excel offensively in this game as well. The Racers defense isn’t great allowing 78 PPG and they rank 264th in opponent’s FG%. They’ve been winning tight games all season and each of their last 3 was decided by 6 points or less. Bradley should keep this close throughout and we’ll take the points.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic -6.5 vs Indiana Pacers 3pm ET - The Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season and have currently lost 11 straight games. On the year, Indiana has a 1-15 SU road record with an average loss margin of -13.8ppg. Orlando on the other hand has been solid overall and very good at home with an 11-5 record on their home court. Orlando is coming off a loss to the Bulls in their last game and will look to rebound here with a much better effort against a Pacers team they barely beat last week. The Magic were just favored by -4.5 points at Indiana so the number on Sunday’s game is a bargain. In the Pacers 11-game losing streak only 4 of the eleven losses have come by single digits. Easy call with the home team Magic in this one.

ASA NFL play on Dallas Cowboys -3.5 at NY Giants, Sunday 1pm ET - The Giants have everything to play for here…essentially the 2nd pick in the draft next year so losing is a priority. New York is 3-13 on the year and owns the tiebreaker among the 3-13 teams. A win here could potentially drop them all the way down to the 8th spot. Dallas on the other hand is middle of the pack this season at 7-8-1 and are mainly playing for incentive bonuses or player statistics. QB Dak Prescott currently leads the NFL in total passing yards with WR Pickens and Lamb both top 10 receiving yards, so they’ll likely look to pad stats against a bad Giants defense. The Cowboys put up more yards offensively than any other team in the NFL at 399ypg while averaging 6.2YPP (4th). The Boys will have success moving the football against a Giants D that is 29th in total yards per game allowed at 364ypg and 27th in YPP defense giving up 6.1YPP. The Giants won last week in Las Vegas against a team that has quit on the season and was playing for the #1 pick in next year's draft. The Giants have average offensive statistics on the season ranking 16th in total yards per game and 19th in YPP at 5.4 so they can’t exploit a horrible Cowboys defense which is just as bad as their own. Dallas had a few extra days to prepare for this game and should get a win by a TD or more.

#770 ASA PLAY ON UC San Diego -2.5 over Hawaii, Saturday at 10 PM ET - We’re getting a really good team, off a loss, at home with a low number in this one. UCSD is 11-3 on the season and 8-3-1 ATS. They should be extra motivated in this game coming off a rough road loss @ Cal Poly as a 9 point favorite. The Tritons led nearly the entire game and actually never trailed in the 2nd half until Cal Poly took a 66-65 lead with 18 seconds left in the game and won 67-65. UCSD didn’t score a single point over the last 3:49 in that loss. We expect a big bounce back at home where they have won 32 of their last 37 games. Hawaii is 11-2 on the year but they’ve played the 2nd easiest schedule in college hoops thus far. They have 1 win vs a top 200 team and the 2 top 100 teams they played they lost to both. Compare that to San Diego who has 6 wins vs top 200 teams this season. On top of that, Hawaii has played 11 home games, where they obviously have a huge advantage over opponents who have to make the long travel, and only 2 road games. Their most recent game was an easy win @ a bad UC Riverside team and now the Rainbows had to stay stateside to face UCSD 48 hours later. To give you an idea of how easy Hawaii’s schedule has been, thus far they’ve faced the 353rd most difficult schedule of offensive teams and the 362nd most difficult schedule of defensive teams. Even with that, the Tritons have been the better shooting team overall and from beyond the arc this season despite playing the much more difficult slate. The Rainbows have beaten 2 teams this season that currently have a winning record (Utah Tech is 9-7 & UC Davis is 8-5) and the combined record of the teams they’ve beaten is 54-78. UCSD was favored by 15.5 vs Hawaii here at home last year and won by 39 points. Now we’re getting them near a pick-em. We’ll gladly take UC San Diego in this game.

ASA NFL play on Seattle Seahawks -1.5 at San Francisco 49ers, Saturday 8:00pm ET - The line on this game is telling us who to bet on and it’s the Seahawks. This number opened with the Niners the favorite, yet with more money and tickets on San Francisco it steamed to the Seahawks as the road favorite. The 49ers offense has played light’s out in recent weeks with 37, 48 and 42 points in their previous three games. The problem is the defense for San Francisco has hemorrhaged yards and points in that same 3-game stretch. Seattle rolls into this game on a 6 game winning streak and has been outstanding on the road this season with a 7-1 SU record. The big difference between these two teams is their defenses. San Francisco has been below average in most key metrics for most of the season. They allow the 19th most total yards per game at 339ypg, rate 24th in yards per play allowed at 5.8YPP and get exploited through the air allowing 235 passing yards per game (25th). In their last 3 games the Niners numbers are worse, allowing 353ypg and 6.3YPP. Seattle on the other hand is the #2 overall rated defense in the NFL. The Seahawks allow just 293ypg (6th) at 4.8YPP (1st) while giving up just 18.1ppg on the season. The offenses for both teams have near identical numbers with both top 10 in total yards per game and yards per play with each scoring more than 27ppg. Seattle QB Darnold can struggle when pressured which won’t be the case Saturday. The 49ers are 32nd or last in the league in sack percentage and sacks per game. The edge for Seattle’s defense is the difference here.

#756 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -7.5 over Wyoming, Saturday at 8 PM ET - These 2 MWC teams have the same record at 10-3 yet New Mexico has played a strength of schedule nearly 200 spots higher than Wyoming (319th SOS for Wyoming & 126th for the Lobos). We’re also getting a very good New Mexico team coming off a loss @ Boise State in a game Shot Quality metrics had the Lobos winning the game. Now we get them back at home where they are 8-0 this season and 24-1 since the start of last year. The Lobos already have 3 top 100 wins crushing a very good Santa Clara team here at home (98-71), beating Mississippi State on a neutral court, and topping a very good VCU team on the road. Wyoming’s best win on the season was vs South Dakota State who ranks 177th per KenPom. They are 0-3 vs top 150 teams losing to Texas Tech, Sam Houston State, and Grand Canyon. It’s the Cowboys 2nd straight road game after beating a bad Air Force team (ranked 328th) on the road Tuesday night 68-56. Air Force was able to keep the game fairly close (trailed by 5 with 3:00 remaining in the game) despite getting outscored by 13 points from the FT line and by a whopping 27 points from beyond the arc. AF only made 1 of their 12 three point shots. Based on those 2 things alone that game should have been a blowout and Wyoming was unable to pull away. The Cowboys have decent, not great, numbers ranking 110th in offensive efficiency and 84th in defensive efficiency but they’ve faced a schedule where their offensive opponents have an average efficiency rating of 301st and an average defensive efficiency rating of 332nd. The Lobos have similar offensive numbers ranking 119th in offensive efficiency and much better defensive numbers ranking 46th in defensive efficiency. That’s vs a schedule with an average offensive efficiency rating of 110th and an average defensive efficiency ranting of 132nd. The Lobo defense is very good at creating turnovers (64th nationally) and they should have a big edge at the FT line where they make 77% and are facing a Wyoming D that allowed opponents to score almost 30% of their points from the charity stripe this season (2nd worst in the nation). We like the Lobos to bounce back for a double digit win tonight.

#884 ASA PLAY ON California -4 over Notre Dame, Friday at 11 PM ET - We like this spot for Cal coming off a 20 point home loss vs a very good Louisville team. This is also a fade spot for the Irish who won as a dog @ Stanford on Tuesday. Notre Dame was a 7 point dog in that game and now they are only +4.5 vs a Cal team that ranks nearly 20 spots higher than Stanford per KenPom. Stanford shot brutally bad in that game making only 13 of their 56 shots (23%) and just 4 of 30 from beyond the arc. While ND’s defense is solid (top 50 in efficiency), they aren’t that good. Just one of those poor shooting nights and even with those horrible shooting numbers from the Cardinal, the game was still tight with the Irish winning 47-40. Cal was roasted at home by Louisville (ranked 11th per KenPom) on Tuesday and their effort on the boards was poor (-19). Head coach Mark Madsen was disappointed with his team’s physicality in that game and mentioned, “the Notre Dame game is a huge game for us.” They don’t want to drop to 0-2 in the ACC with 2 road games on deck at UVA and Va Tech. Expect a much better effort tonight from the Bears. Prior to that setback, the Bears only loss on the year was @ Kansas State by 3 points. Cal has been at home since mid November while the Irish have been on the west coast since Monday and will be playing their 2nd of back to back roadies. Cal can score averaging 82 PPG and they make nearly 40% of their triples (17th nationally). ND only averages 65 PPG on the road this year and they are without their leading scorer Markus Burton (18 PPG) who was lost for the season a few weeks ago. They are 3-1 since Burton was injured but they did lose at home vs IPFW during that stretch and Cal will be the highest rated team they’ve faced since his injury. This one sets up nicely as a bounce back game for the Bears and we’ll lay it.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns -11.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 9 pm ET - The Kings are coming off a hard-fought game last night against the Celtics and now face a rested Suns team in their building. Sacramento is shorthanded right now with LaVine and Sabonis both out with injuries. LaVine leads the team in scoring, Sabonis leads them in rebounding. The Kings struggle to play without rest with a 5-16 ATS record dating back to the start of last season and they’ve lost those games by an average of 10+ points per game. Phoenix has been a pleasant surprise this season with a 19-14 Su record, 10-5 at home. Phoenix has solid numbers overall and rank top half of the league in efficiency differential at +1.4. In comparison, the Kings are 29th in eDIFF at -11.3. These two teams met in late November in Sacramento and the Suns won by 12-points. The Suns had won 4 straight games but are now coming off a loss to the Cavs and they’ve excelled in that situation this season with a 9-4 ATS mark. The Suns have beaten the Kings in 4 of the last five meetings in Phoenix and tonight we expect this game to get ugly late.

#267 ASA PLAY ON Navy -7 over Cincinnati, Friday at 4:30 PM ET @ Memphis, TN - One thing we know about service academies in bowl games and that is they are all in. They only have 1 opt out so they will basically be in tact for this game as they always are for bowls. Navy has won 8 of their last 10 bowl games and service academies are huge money makers this time of year going 19-3 ATS in bowls since 2003. Cincinnati is on the other end of the spectrum. They have a ton of opt outs including a huge number of key defensive players. The Bearcats will also be without their starting QB Sorsby who accounted for over 65% of Cincinnati’s total yardage this season. His back up Lichtenberg has 333 career passing yards and it looks like he will split time with freshman Jones who has taken only 2 snaps this season. That tells us that this Cincinnati staff is looking toward next year to see what they have and maybe not completely focused on winning this game. It’s really tough to defend the Navy offense if you’re not used to playing against it. They will have to play their most focused game of the season on that side of the ball and that might be tough with a bunch of back ups. Navy leads the country in rushing yards at 290 YPG on nearly 6.0 YPC. The Bearcat D allowed 174 YPG on the ground which ranked 97th. Not a great match up. On top of that, Navy actually threw the ball well this season with veteran QB Horvath averaging over 130 YPG through the air. Don’t be surprised if Navy hits some big plays through the air vs a Cincy team missing their entire starting secondary in this game. The Bearcats D was shredded down the stretch for 36.5 PPG over their last 4 and Navy will have big time success here. The Midshipmen are viewing this as their “second” Super Bowl only behind their game with Army. We already saw Army crush a disinterested UConn team 41-16 in their bowl game. Similar spot here and while we don’t expect the score to be that lopsided, we would be completely surprised if it was. Navy by 10+ in this one.

#266 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -16 over Rice, Friday at 1 PM ET @ Fort Worth, TX - We’re pretty sure Rice won’t be able to keep up on the scoreboard here. They are facing a potent Texas State offense that averages 36 PPG on 476 YPG (8th in the country). The Bobcats have put up at least 40 points 5 times this season and they’ve been held under 30 just twice vs James Madison (top 10 defense) and Arizona State. They are very balanced averaging 220 YPG rushing and 256 YPG passing. They are facing a Rice defense that ranks 127th in total defense and allowed 50+ points in each of their last 2 regular season games. The Owls defense doesn’t have a strength as they rank 95th vs the run and 127th vs the pass. They are the only team in the country to allow points on EVERY redzone appearance by their opponents this year. That’s 37 redzone trips by their opponents and 37 scores (28 TD’s). On the other side, the Rice offense is far from explosive averaging just 19 PPG this season. They can’t pass at all (97 YPG passing) so if they get way behind, which we anticipate here, it’s tough for them to come back. They’ll also be down to their 3rd string QB here, who took a grand total of 37 snaps this season, as their starter and back up have both entered the transfer portal. If they only scored 19 PPG with their top QB and a full offense how are they going to keep up in this game? The Texas State defense should be able to focus almost solely on the run here which will make it tough for the Rice offense. The Owls finished 5-7 (11th place) in at average at best AAC conference. The only reason they got into this bowl is there weren’t enough willing teams to play so they were asked. Texas State should roll in this game.

ASAwins NBA play on Miami Heat +4.5 at Detroit Pistons, 7pm ET - We mentioned this the other day, depending on the exact circumstances, but we like to fade teams coming off extended road trips which is the case for Detroit. The Pistons were on the road for 5 straight games on the West coast which ended with a win against the Lakers. The betting markets are also telling us to back the Heat here as the line on this game is trending down despite a high volume of tickets and money on the Pistons. Detroit is 14-20 ATS as a home favorite dating back to the start of last season with a plus/minus in those games of +5.6. Miami is .500 as a road dog in that same time frame but their +/- is -3.1ppg in that scenario. The Pistons are the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.2% but the Heat allow opponents to make just 45.6% which is 4th best defensively. The Pistons rely on forcing turnovers with their defense (3rd) but the Heat take care of the basketball with the 4th best TOV% in the league. This has been a very tight series in the past with the last 4 meetings all decided by 3-points or less and two of the last four went to OT. We expect another tight game on Thursday.

#262 ASA PLAY ON Indiana -7 over Alabama, Thursday at 4 PM ET @ Pasadena, CA - We have IU closer to a 10 point favorite in this game and at -7 we like the value with the Hoosiers. Alabama is living on their name right now. This team was a borderline CFP team at best and they have a number of flaws. First, they can’t run the ball at all. They rank 122nd in rushing YPG and 125 in YPC. That’s a huge problem vs an Indiana defense that is elite. The Hoosiers only allow 77 YPG rushing (2nd in the nation) so that makes the Bama offense very one dimensional in this game. In their playoff opener, we were on the Crimson Tide and got lucky. They were completely dominated by an OK, not great, Oklahoma team, who’s offense is shaky at best. OU outgained Alabama by over 100 yards and they were held to 28 yards rushing on 25 carries. The game prior to that they were dominated by UGA a team very similar to Indiana, 28-7 and held to negative 3 yards rushing. They’ll struggle to move the ball in Indiana. The Hoosiers are top 10 in both total offense and total defense and top 6 in scoring offense and scoring defense. Many still question this team’s schedule but in their 2 games vs playoff teams, they handled Oregon by 10 on the road, and then beat Ohio State, who had been #1 all season, on a neutral site. Since Cignetti took over as head coach they are 24-2 with their only losses coming last year @ OSU and @ Notre Dame, 2 teams that played for the National Championship. When comparing the key differentials of these 2 teams, it’s not close. Indiana’s PPG margin is +31 and they outgained their opponents by 215 YPG. Bama’s PPG margin is +13 and they outgained their opponents by 90 YPG. IU is simply better on both sides of the ball and they are on a mission after getting to the Playoffs last year and losing right out of the game to Notre Dame. They now know what this situation is like while the Tide did not make it to the Playoffs last year so this spot is new to many of them. We like Indiana by more than a TD in this one.

#734 ASA PLAY ON Wright State -5 over UW Milwaukee, Thursday at 2 PM ET - This spot heavily favors Wright State from a situational standpoint. They have been home since mid December and this will be their 4th consecutive home game. They have some momentum coming off back to back wins over Eastern Michigan and Oakland. They’ve been off since Monday so they should be set and ready for this one. UWM, on the other hand, played an important conference home game on Monday vs IPFW, then played @ Wisconsin the next night (Tuesday), and now they are in Dayton less than 40 hours after their game vs the Badgers came to an end. The Panthers bussed to Chicago after their game vs Wisconsin and flew into Dayton early on Wednesday. On top of that, their next game is @ rival UW Green Bay. Rough scheduling spot to say the least. Milwaukee is just 1-6 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Cleveland State who ranks 323rd per KenPom and has a 2-10 record vs D1 opponents this season. Besides Wisconsin on Tuesday (20 point loss), Wright State will be the highest rated opponent UWM has faced since November. The Panthers have played the slightly better strength of schedule and have better straight FG% numbers on offense and defense as well as better efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball. Milwaukee’s shooting numbers aren’t great (286th in FG% and 275th from 3) and on the road their shooting drops significantly. We don’t expect that to change with a high probability of tired legs for Milwaukee. Wright State is hitting 52% of their shots at home while averaging 82 PPG. We like the Raiders to cover this game at home.

#260 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 12 PM ET @ Miami, FL - Tech has been an under the radar team for most casual observers this season. Many don’t put them in the same category as the OSU’s, Oregon’s, Indiana’s, and Georgia’s of the world. They are every bit as good as those teams and better than some. Our power ratings have Tech as a slight favorite in this game and we’re grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were 12-1 SU and a CFB leading 11-2 ATS on the season. Their only loss was @ Arizona State in a game Tech played without their starting QB and still led with under 30 seconds left. Every other game this season they won by at least 24 points. Their strength of schedule wasn’t as good as Oregon, but it wasn’t like they had any close games. They destroyed everyone. The defense is as good as there is in the country ranking 3rd in total D, 3rd in YPP allowed, and 1st in rush defense. They allowed only 11 PPG this season and when stepping up in competition they held the 3 top 25 offenses they faced this season to an average of 8 PPG. The Raiders are also a top 10 offense that is very balanced (191 YPG rushing and 290 YPG passing) and they averaged 42 PPG. Not many, if any, weaknesses on this team. While Texas Tech was destroying their opponents, Oregon lost by 10 at home to Indiana and had a number of close calls beating PSU in OT, beating Iowa by 2, and holding on to beat Washington by 12 in a game that was a 5 point margin midway through the 4th quarter. Their offense clicks by being able to run the ball (217 YPG rushing) which then opens up their passing attack. They might be one dimensional here as Tech’s defense has completely shut down opposing rushing attacks with what many consider the best defensive line in the country. The Raiders are allowing just 68 yards rushing on 2.9 YPC, both tops in the nation. While Oregon’s defense has top 10 numbers, we see them as a bit more vulnerable. In their opening round game, James Madison hit them for over 500 yards. The Ducks have faced 3 top 25 offenses this year (same as Texas Tech) and allowed 30 PPG in those games. We’ve been on Texas Tech a number of times for big plays this year and won them all. Let’s do it again on Thursday.

ASA NBA play on Washington Wizards +11.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - The Bucks have Giannis back in the lineup, but the facts are they weren’t great with him early this season and we’re not sure they should be laying double-digits here. On the season the Bucks have the 20th rated Net rating at -2.8 and they currently sit 11th in the East. Washington has a season long Net rating of -11.9 but in their last 10 games they’ve played significantly better with a Net rating of -3.8. In fact, in comparing each teams last 10 games we see the Wiz have a better scoring differential of -3.4ppg versus the Bucks at -5.1ppg. Historically we like to fade teams coming off extended road trips which is the case for Milwaukee as they just played 5 straight away from home. The Wizards are 2-1 SU their last 3 games with solid wins against the Raptors and Grizzlies before a 14-point loss to the Suns. This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these two teams with the series tied 1-1 and we expect Washington to keep this game close.

#257 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL +9.5 over Ohio St, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - @ Arlington, TX - Too many points here in our opinion. Our power ratings have this line at a TD in favor of OSU so we have some value with the Canes. 2 high level defensive teams with a very low total (41 right now) makes the points even more valuable. Miami is off an impressive win as a dog @ Texas A&M. Both defenses dominated that game and the Canes rush D held the Aggies to 89 yards on 2.5 YPC. A&M entered that game averaging 188 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC so a very impressive performance by Miami who is allowing only 87 YPG rushing on the year. The Canes also beat Notre Dame this year and those 2 wins (A&M and ND) are the 2 most impressive wins for either of these teams this season. OSU was very good this year but their best win was maybe 14-7 at home vs Texas? A Longhorn team that turned out to be not as good as advertised. Maybe their win over Michigan to end the season? A Michigan program that was, and is, in disarray. In their one “step up” type game this year vs a very high level opponent, the Buckeyes lost in the Big 10 Championship game vs Indiana. OSU’s only TD in their game vs Indiana was a 25 yard drive after an interception. They did very little offensively especially on the ground where they had 58 yards rushing. Neither team will be able to run much in this game with 2 outstanding, top 10 rush defenses. Both QB’s are outstanding with Miami’s Beck throwing for 3200 yards and 26 TD’s and OSU’s Saying throwing for 3300 yards and 31 TD’s. Both complete over 70% of their passes. Miami had a few hiccups vs SMU in OT (outgained SMU by 50 yards) and vs Louisville (lost by 3 but had 5 turnovers). This team can lose focus at times during the year when favored but when dialed in, they are as talented as anyone. Canes are 2-0 ATS as a dog this year winning both outright. If both these teams are at their best, there is not a 10 point difference. We’ll take the points

#712 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -20 over St Joes, Wednesday at 4 PM ET - St Joes has played one of the easiest schedules in the country (333rd SOS) yet they already have 5 losses. They’ve only beaten 1 team ranked inside the top 250 and they are 0-4 in true road games. The Hawks have dropped nearly 100 spots in the KenPom rankings since the start of the year and now barely sit inside the top 200 (197th). Their situation isn’t ideal as their head coach left in September to join the NY Knicks staff leaving them in limbo. They did hire Penn coach Steve Donahue who had losing seasons in 3 of his last 4 years for the Quakers. His system doesn’t necessarily fit the players on this team. The Hawks are a poor shooting team ranking outside the top 320 in both FG% and 3 point FG% and they are facing an elite St Louis D that ranks inside the top 10 in the nation in both FG% and 3 point FG% allowed. The Billikens are also outstanding on offense ranking 16th in FG% and scoring over 90 PPG (3rd in the nation). STL’s only loss came by 1 point @ Stanford and they’ve already topped 3 top 100 teams this season. 8 of their 12 wins have come by more than 20 points and they topped St Joe’s here by 16 last year and this year’s STL team is currently ranked nearly 100 spots higher than last year’s team while this year’s St Joe’s team is currently more than 100 spots lower than last year’s team. St Louis will be the highest rated team the Hawks have played so far this season and this one could get ugly.

#249 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +5.5 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - Iowa is healthy for this one and they’ll have their full roster in tact for this game according to head coach Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes finished with an 8-4 record and all 4 losses were by 5 points or less. That includes a tight 5 point loss vs #1 Indiana and a 2 point loss vs Oregon, both CFP teams. This team rarely loses by margin including the post-season as they are 4-3 SU in bowl games since 2017 with 2 of those losses coming by 3 points. They’ve only lost 7 games by 10 or more points in their last 52 contests and 5 of those setbacks came at the hands of Ohio St, Michigan, or Penn St. The defense simply finds a way to shut teams down. Even high level offensive teams. This year they held Indiana to 20 points (they average 39 PPG), USC to 26 points (they average 36 PPG) and Oregon to 18 points (they average 37 points). Iowa ranks in the top 10 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, and scoring D (15 PPG allowed) and they are at full strength with a full key pieces back from injury. Vandy’s offense has been very good this year but they’ve had a few bumps in the road vs high level defenses. They only faced 2 teams that ended the year in the top 25 in total defense and scored 14 and 17 points in those 2 games (vs Bama & Missouri). Vanderbilt QB Pavia had a really good year but he seems to be a bit distracted right now with his Heisman trophy presentation antics (basically ripped on the voters for not selecting him) and he has filed a lawsuit to attempt to play again next year despite using up his eligibility. We think Iowa’s defense will give him big problems. Iowa’s offense can be tough to watch at times but they did average 29 PPG this season and topped 30 points in half of their games (6). The Commodores defense is solid but not great ranking 55th in total D and 59th in YPP allowed. We think Iowa does enough on offense to keep this game close. They are 3-0-1 ATS as a dog this year and we like them to cover this one.

#609 ASA PLAY ON Seton Hall -2 over Marquette, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Marquette is a poor offensive team and they are in trouble here vs one of the best defensive teams in the country. The Golden Eagles rank 335th in FG% and 313th in 3 point FG% and they are facing a Seton Hall defense that ranks 13th in defensive efficiency and 6th in the nation allowing just 62 PPG. They are also one of the top teams in the country at creating turnovers on 24% of opponent’s possessions (5th in the country). The Pirates are 11-2 on the season and they are coming off a 64-56 loss vs Villanova on December 23rd to give them a little extra motivation here. On top of that, they lost both games vs Marquette last year so we can expect the Hall to be focused in this game. They’ve already beaten 3 top 100 teams away from home (road or neutral) topping NC State by 11 (ranked 27th per KenPom), won @ Kansas State by 11 (KSU ranked 73rd), and won @ Providence by 5 (ranked 75th). Marquette has 5 wins on the season all vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They are 0-6 vs teams inside the top 100 (Seton Hall currently ranked 48th) and 4 of those losses have come by 20 or more points. The Golden Eagles have already lost 3 home games this season and 2 of those losses came vs teams ranked outside the top 100. The offense has already been struggling and it won’t get any better as they just kicked their 3rd leading scorer, Zaide Lowery, off the team. Marquette has some issues going on and they are drastically overvalued with a 2-10 ATS record. We like Seton Hall to win this one comfortably.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -4.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8 pm ET - The Spurs are legit and can contend in the West and for a Championship, despite their youth. Cleveland has faded after a hot start going 10-13 SU in their last 23 games. In the month of November, the Cavs were 9-6 SU with an average plus/minus of +4.9ppg. In December they are 5-7 SU with a negative average point differential of minus -0.7ppg. The Spurs on the other hand are red hot right now with a 10-2 run and an average +/- of +8.3ppg in their last 12 games and that included 3 games against the Thunder. Cleveland is near average in team FG% defense and rank 16th in defensive efficiency ratings. In comparison, the Spurs are 7th in dEFF. Offensively the Spurs have the edge with the 6th best offensive efficiency, the Cavs rank 10th. Cleveland has struggled to make shots this season with the 19th rated FG% shooting at 46.4% and don’t make 3’s either at 34.9% (22nd). We like the Spurs at this short number.

#430 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -3 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Niners have a lot to play for. If they win out, they lock up the #1 seed in the NFC and home field all the way through the Super Bowl if they can make it that far. The Super Bowl is being played at the home stadium in Santa Clara. This offense has been lights out averaging nearly 35 PPG over their last 5. They haven’t punted since November! Brock Purdy is back on QB and he is a perfect 5-0 both SU & ATS winning all 5 games by double digits. They are in a quite a battle with the Rams and Seahawks for the NFC West crown. The Bears most likely will win the NFC North as their magic number is 1. They just need 1 win in their final 2 games or 1 loss by Green Bay in their final 2 games. The defense has been poor on the road allowing 29 PPG which doesn’t match up well with SF’s potent offense. They’ll struggle to slow down the San Francisco passing offense which ranks #1 in the NFL in success rate. Chicago’s pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete over 66% of their passes (22nd) and 7.1 yards per pass attempt (28th). The Niners are 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite facing a Chicago team that has been outgained by 1.1 YPP on the road and outscored by 4 PPG away from home. These teams have the same record (both 11-4) but San Francisco’s point differential is more than twice that of Chicago (+74 for SF and +33 for the Bears). On top of that, the Niners have a -4 turnover differential on the season while Chicago is +21 (by far the best in the NFL) yet they have the same record. That speaks volumes as to how much better SF is. If San Fran doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch here, they win this game by more than a TD.

#306547 ASA PLAY ON Winthrop +18 over Texas Tech, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Wouldn’t be surprised if Tech is a bit flat here which wouldn’t be ideal vs a very solid Winthrop team. The Red Raiders are coming off a huge, upset win over Duke at Madison Square Garden back on December 20th. They erased a 17 point deficit and made a FT with 3 seconds remaining to win 82-81. They’ve had 9 days to bask in the glow of that win AND they start Big 12 play facing Oklahoma State next. Winthrop is 8-6 on the year and ranked 122nd per KenPom. Their 6 losses have all come by 6 points or less including 3 top 100 teams. The Eagles lost @ Arkansas by 1 and @ Nebraska by 7, two teams power ranked very similar to Texas Tech. Winthrop is a very dangerous dog, especially a large underdog, for a number of reasons. First they are experienced with all seniors in the starting lineup and a few more contributing off the bench. Second, the Eagles shoot the ball very well hitting 37% of their triples (58th in the country) and they are very efficient on offense (top 60 in offense efficiency). They are a good rebounding team and they don’t turn the ball over (13th in offensive turnover rate) limiting extra possessions for their opponent. Lastly, this team can score. They average 90 PPG and even vs their top 100 opponents they are averaging 82 PPG. It’s really difficult to pull away from a team that can put points on the board like Winthrop can. The Red Raiders haven’t been elite on defense this season ranking 293rd in opponents FG% and 228th defending the arc. We highly doubt they’ll shut down Winthrop’s offense. Let’s take the huge points here.

#422 ASA PLAY ON Miami Dolphins +6 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We faded the Bucs last week and picked up a win and they continue to be priced as if they are much better than they actually are. We know they “need to” win as they battle for the NFC South crown but throw that out the window. Often times that doesn’t matter and it’s already priced into the number. In fact, in the final 2 weeks of the regular season, teams that have to win to keep their playoff hopes alive vs teams that have been eliminated have been a big time money burner. Those “have to” win teams are 69-109 ATS dating back to 1990 including 0-1 this year with Minnesota beating Detroit on Xmas day as an underdog. Tampa continues to be overpriced as they’ve now lost 7 straight ATS and 6 of their last 7 SU yet they are nearly a TD favorite on the road here? Their only outright win since October was at home vs Arizona and the Bucs were outgained 6.3 YPP to 4.9 YPP in that win. The defense hasn’t been good (27th in YPP allowed) and the offense has tanked since October. Over their past 9 games, the Buccaneers are averaging 4.6 yards per play, which ranks 29th in the league ahead of only Cleveland, NYJ, and Las Vegas. They haven’t been explosive on that side of the ball gaining 10 or more yards on just 21% of their passing plays over that span which is 30th in the league. Miami is off back to back losses after winning 4 straight. We faded them last week taking Cincinnati who was off a shutout loss. The score was lopsided but the Fins were only outgained by 18 yards and the YPP numbers were dead even. We look for Miami to play well in their home finale coming off that loss. New QB Ewers now has a few weeks of practice and a game under his belt so improvement is expected. The betting splits are as we expected here with almost 60% of the wagers on the Bucs yet more than 60% of the money on Miami which speaks volumes. Even if the Dolphins don’t come out on top in this game, we look for it to be close so taking the points is the way to go.

#232 ASA PLAY ON BYU -3.5 over Georgia Tech, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – POP TARTS BOWL @ Orlando, FL - BYU was left out of the College FB Playoff 12 team field and from everything we’ve heard they are out to prove a point here. Often times teams might be flat in this spot but the Cougars have very few opt outs (main loss is RB Martin) and seem to be all in on this game. If so, they are definitely the better team in this match up. BYU has just 2 losses this year, both vs Texas Tech, who is among the top few teams in the country. Versus the other 5 bowl teams they faced this year, BYU was 5-0 SU & ATS and outgained all 5 teams. Georgia Tech was 3-3 vs the bowl teams they faced but they were outgained in all 6 games so they were very lucky to win 3 of those games. The Jackets faltered down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that stretch was by 2 points vs a bad Boston College team (2-10 record) in a game Tech needed a FG in the final 15 seconds to come away with a win. They lost by double digits to both Pitt and NC State down the stretch and while the played UGA to a 7 point game (lost 16-9) to close out the season, the Bulldogs looked uninterested in that game with the SEC Championship game on deck. Tech’s offense might be a bit discombobulated as well losing their offensive coordinator and some other offensive assistants heading into this game. They will also be without their starting center in this game. Both offenses are solid averaging 32 & 33 PPG, however BYU has a huge edge defensively. They are allowing 19 PPG while ranking in the top 30 in total defense, and 32nd in rushing YPG allowed. Georgia Tech ranks 88th in total D, 98th in YPP allowed and 92nd in rush defense. While BYU will be without their starting RB here, let’s remember that this GT defense allowed nearly 200 yards rushing to NC State’s back up RB just a few weeks ago with the Wolfpack starter out. The Jackets biggest game of the year was the season finale vs big brother Georgia and we’re not sure they’ll be completely in on this one. Proof is in the pudding as they are 1-7 SU in bowl games following a season ending loss to UGA. We’ll lay it with BYU.

#221 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico +2.5 over Minnesota, Friday at 4:30 PM ET – RATE BOWL @ Phoenix, AZ - It looks like New Mexico will have most of their key players, if not all, playing in this game. Minnesota has had a number of WR’s opt out of this game and they may have some key defensive players unavailable as well. Much of this info won’t be known until game time but we can be pretty sure the Gophers will have more key players not suiting up in this game when compared to the Lobos. We’re fading a trend here as PJ Fleck is 6-0 SU his last 6 bowl games, however this is one of, if not his weakest team at Minnesota. The offense is not good (128th in total offense) and they can’t run the ball (103 YPG) which has been a staple of this program. If you struggle to run the ball, you better have a high level QB and Minnesota does not have that. Freshman QB Lindsey is adequate but not great and he will be thin at WR in this game. The Gophs were 1-5 vs bowl teams this season and they were outgained by 141 YPG in those games. They were outgained in 9 of their last 10 games by an average of 145 YPG and they didn’t win a road game this season. New Mexico is thrilled to be playing in their first bowl game since 2016 and they should have a solid contingent of fans making the 400 mile trek to Phoenix. The Lobos are the better running team (155 YPG) and their defense was very solid this year allowing 349 YPG on 5.3 YPP. They also had some solid road wins this year @ UCLA and @ UNLV who played in the Mountain West Championship game. The Lobos were 5-1 ATS this year vs bowl teams and we think they have a great shot to win this game so we’ll grab the points.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets -3 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:40pm ET - Minnesota is blistering hot right now with a 8-2 SU run and have won 3 straight but a closer look tells a slightly different story. Seven of those 10 games came at home, they caught a short-handed Knicks team and 4 of those wins games against the Grizzlies, Kings and Pelicans, three of the worst teams in the league. The Wolves are in a tough spot here traveling to Denver to face a Nuggets team off an upset loss to the Mavericks. Denver is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and more importantly here, they are 7-0 SU off a loss this season and they’ve won those games by an average of +14.4ppg. Going back further, the Nuggets are 33-12 SU off a loss dating back to the start of last season +5.9ppg. When it comes to efficiency rating the Nuggets have the second-best differential in the league at +9.1, only behind the Thunder. Minnesota is a respectable +4.8 in eDIFF. Minnesota doesn’t shoot it well enough to exploit the Nuggets poor shooting defense and they’ll have a tough time getting second chance points against the 4th best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Denver is the best overall FG% team in the league at 51.5% and also hit 40.6% from beyond the arc, also tops in the NBA. This has gotten to be a very good rivalry and we expect a convincing win by the home team off a loss.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -9.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2:30 pm ET - What a treat for basketball fans on Christmas Day! This is the new rivalry in the Association and it’s a good one if you haven’t been paying attention. Four weeks ago there was talk of OKC setting the all-time wins record in the NBA, setting the consecutive wins record, big favorites to win it all, everything was positive surrounding the Thunder betting markets. Then the Spurs beat them in the Cup semifinals, and everyone paused and took a breath. Then the Spurs followed up with a win on their home court Tuesday over OKC. Yes, the Spurs are a great young team right now and going to be a force to be reckoned with in the future. On Tuesday night the Spurs opened +8.5 point at home and won by 20-points. The story of the game was a ridiculously great shooting night by the Spurs 58% overall and 44% from Deep. They also attempted 24 FT’s to the Thunders 7. Those numbers will be tough to duplicate for these reasons: The Spurs shoot 48% on the season, 37% from beyond the arc AND the Thunder hold opponents to 43% shooting (#1) and 37% 3PT% (22nd). OKC has the best defensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.047-points per possession allowed and are 5th in oEFF. Oklahoma City is 14-0 SU at home and win by an average margin of +19.3ppg. The last 3 times these two teams have met in OKC the results have been double-digit wins by the Thunder. There is some bad blood here and we expect OKC to get ‘home cooking’ in this one and win going away.

#215 ASA PLAY ON UNLV -6.5 over Ohio U, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The distraction meter in this game is at opposite ends of the spectrum for both teams. Ohio has had lots of external noise with the allegations of their head coach Brian Smith had a relationship with a student. There were lots of “stories” out there and after an in depth investigation by the school, Smith was finally fired last Wednesday. Meanwhile, his team has been trying to get ready for a bowl game which is not ideal. UNLV, on the other hand, has been business as usual with 1st year veteran head coach Dan Mullen leading the Rebs to another bowl game after they topped California 24-13 in last year’s LA Bowl. A win here gives UNLV their second 11 win season in school history and the vibes are high with this program. The Rebels closed the season winning 4 of their last 5 games and their 3 losses this year came at the hands of Boise St (twice) and a 9-3 New Mexico team by 4 points. Big coaching edge here with Mullen coaching in his 11 bowl game facing in interim coach for Ohio. Both teams have very good rushing attacks averaging over 200 YPG on the ground. The difference here will be the passing game with UNLV having a large edge. They rank 39th in YPG passing while Ohio is outside the top 100. UNLV QB Colandrea passed for 3200 yards with 23 TD’s and 8 picks compared to Ohio QB Navarro who passed for 2200 yards with 14 TD’s and 10 picks. The Rebs played the tougher schedule (104th SOS to 125th for Ohio) and still had the better YPP margin (+0.5 to +0.3) and better PPG margin (+7 to +5). Ohio is in the midst of a coaching search with a number of players mostly likely transferring out after this game is done. UNLV is locked in on this game and we expect them to win by more than a TD so we’ll lay it.

#614 ASA PLAY ON Seton Hall -2.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Seton Hall has quietly racked up an 11-1 record with their only loss coming by 2 points vs USC (12-1 record) on a neutral court. It was a game that the Hall led by 13 in the 2nd half and coughed it up with USC making 19 more FT’s yet still winning by just 2 points. This Seton Hall team is legit. They are fantastic defensively ranking 13th in defensive efficiency, 2nd in FG’s allowed per game at 19.8, and they create turnovers at almost a 24% rate which is 6th best in the country. On top of that, they are #1 in the country in block percentage and steal percentage. They give up just 62 PPG and only 2 teams have reached 70 points vs this defense (USC & NC State). Nova is very solid as well with a 9-2 record, however they have played only 2 true road games this season winning @ LaSalle who is 4-9 and also in Philadelphia (only 15 miles from the Nova campus) and getting crushed @ Michigan. The Cats were in Milwaukee on Friday night holding on for dear life beating Wisconsin in OT and now they are on the road again. They rely very heavily on the 3 point shot (40% of their points which is 22nd in the country) which we don’t love on the road, especially vs a high level defense. On the other end of the court, Nova is one of the worst 3 point defenses in the nation allowing opponents to hit 38.5% (342nd in the nation). We like the line value here with Seton Hall as Villanova was just a 4.5 point to 5 point dog on a neutral court vs Wisconsin on Friday and they are now only a 2 point dog (opening number) in a true road game vs Seton Hall who is better than Wisconsin. If it’s tight late, we trust Seton Hall’s defense and they make 75% of their FT’s while Nova makes 69%. Let’s lay this small number.

ASA NBA play on Orlando Magic +5.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - The Magic are the better team in this matchup and are worth a bet as a road dog in this scenario. The season long statistics don’t lie, and the Magic have an eDIFF (efficiency differential) of +3.1 compared to the Warriors at +1.2. Orlando has also faced the tougher overall schedule and still rates better. The Magic were just +4.5 at Denver a few nights ago and the Nuggets are a top 4 team in the NBA. Golden State is 1-3 SU in their last four games and the lone win coming at home against the Suns by 3-points as a -4.5 point favorite. The Magic are 6-7 SU on the road but have a positive road differential of +2.6ppg. Golden State has a +6.7ppg average differential at home and stands 8-4 SU. These same two teams met in Orlando in mid-November, and the Magic came out on top 121-113 playing without Banchero, who is healthy and back in the lineup. With the Warriors coming off a win and having a big game on deck Christmas day against the Mavs we will play against them here.

ASA NFL play on: San Francisco 49ers -5.5 at Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 pm ET - There is only one way to bet this game and that’s the 49ers or nothing at all. The computer analytics tell a different story on this game than the actual numbers. The Colts season long statistics would have you on them in this game as an underdog, but the QB situation mitigates that advantage. Phillip Rivers is a great story for us old guys, but the reality is that he’s 44, can’t move and has no arm strength. Last week the Colts managed just 220 yards total at 3.8YPP. Rivers had 120 yards passing at 4.4 yards per attempt. The 49ers have game film on Rivers now and know just how limited he is and D-coordinator, Saleh will have a great game plan for him tonight. The Colts defense played above expectations last week in Seattle but still allowed 6 scoring drives in the game but the Seahawks converted FG’s instead of TD’s. San Francisco is getting healthy and it’s starting to show offensively. They put up 26 points two weeks ago against a good Browns defense in Cleveland and 37 last week against the Titans. San Francisco has won 4 straight games, all by double-digits and tonight we expect a win by 7 or more points by the visitor.

#838 ASA PLAY ON Oral Roberts +3.5 over UT Arlington, Monday at 8 PM ET - Rough spot for UT Arlington playing their 4th straight road game. Over their last 3 games they played games in Arkansas, back to Texas (road game), and then California and now they are in Oklahoma. They are 3-3 on the road this season but their wins have been by 1 point, by 8 in OT, and by 8. ORU has a 5-9 record but played a tough schedule (52nd SOS). 5 of their 9 losses have come vs top 75 teams and their other 4 losses have all come away from home. They have 2 wins vs team ranked very similar to UT Arlington (top 170) beating Kennesaw State on a neutral court and Montana State at home. They do have 2 home losses but those came at the hands of Belmont (ranked 63rd) and Tulsa (ranked 71st) and those 2 teams have a combined record of 23-2. Their game vs Tulsa (11-1 record) went down to the wire with ORU losing by 1 point and Tulsa never led by more than 3 points. Even with those 2 losses the Golden Eagles are averaging 80 PPG at home while allowing just 67 points. UTA is averaging only 65 PPG at home and they are a really poor 3 point shooting team hitting just 28% from deep (352nd) and that number drops to 24% away from home. Their defensive numbers are solid, however they dip drastically on the road as well where they allow almost 23 points more per 100 possessions compared to their home games. ORU is hungry for a win off back to back road losses vs Missouri St and TCU and we expect a great effort tonight. Let’s take the points.

#210 ASA PLAY ON Utah State even over Washington State, Monday at 2 PM ET – IDAHO POTATO BOWL - It’s really tough for us to fade Washington State here as they were VERY good to us this season including winning as our College Game of the Year. However, we feel this is spot to go against the Cougars. The Wazzu program is in the midst of an overhaul for the 2nd year in a row as head coach Jimmy Rogers left for the Iowa State gig. He’s also taking some coaches with him including defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit but Bobbit will stick around to coach this team in the bowl game before heading straight to ISU after. Not an ideal situation. Wazzu lost their head coach at the end of last year to Wake Forest in a very similar situation and they proceeded to get blasted 52-24 in their bowl game vs Syracuse. Many of the Cougar players have already hit the portal and while they will be allowed to play here if they wish, we can’t imagine this team is fully focused on this game. Utah State, on the other hand, has a number of reasons to be all in on this game. It’s their first bowl game under veteran head coach Bronco Mendenhall after missing the post-season in his first season with the Aggies last year. They closed out this season on a very solid run covering their final 4 games and taking both UNLV and Boise State, the 2 MWC Championship game participants, to the wire before losing by 3 and 1 point respectively. USU also had the added motivation of losing @ Washington State last season in embarrassing fashion 49-28. They are also playing this game on the blue carpet in Boise, a spot Utah State is very familiar with being in the same conference. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedules and their YPG and YPP margins are nearly the same. USU has the coaching advantage with Mendenhall having coached in 14 bowl games vs interim Bobbit who has never been a head coach at any level. More stability and motivation for the Aggies as well in this game and we just need a SU win. We’ll take Utah State.

#126 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -7 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Detroit is coming off a 7 point loss @ LA Rams last weekend and this team has been lights out in this situation. They are a perfect 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS coming off a SU loss. They blew a 10 point lead in that game and in head coach Dan Campbell’s career, his teams are 11-3 ATS the week following a loss if his team blows a 7+ point lead. Right now the Lions sit outside the playoffs and this is their home finale making this a near must win with 2 division road games on deck (@ Minnesota & @ Chicago). They catch Pittsburgh in a rough spot traveling on a short week off a Monday night win over Miami. We were on the Steelers in that game and felt Miami would have trouble in the freezing cold weather (10 degree windchill) and we were dead on as the Fins looked like they quit in the 2nd half. The Steelers have not been great in this spot going 0-4 SU and ATS on short rest dating back to the start of last season. This game is MUCH bigger for Detroit as Pittsburgh holds a 1 game lead in the AFC North over Baltimore and while a win here would be great, this division will most likely come down to the final weekend when the Steelers host the Ravens. They are 8-6 on the season but Pitt has a negative YPG and YPP differential. They rank 27th in total offense and 28th in total defense. The Steelers will most likely be without TJ Watt again this week which is great news for Detroit’s passing game that ranks 3rd in the NFL. The Lions have 5 home wins this year, all by at least 2 TD’s with an average margin of +18 PPG in those wins. Detroit is averaging 33 PPG at home this season and we don’t see Pittsburgh’s offense being able to keep pace. We’ll lay it.

#122 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals +3 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention so this is a play for pride situation. We think the Cardinals have a much better chance of playing well in this game at home. Atlanta is coming off a division win @ Tampa Bay kicking a FG as time expired for the 1 point win. Now they are on the road for the 2nd straight week, in a meaningless game, with a prime time Monday night home game on deck with the Rams. We see the Falcons having trouble getting “up” and playing well in this game. Arizona will be hungry for a win at home after losing 6 in a row. They’ve played a brutally tough schedule this year (2nd most difficult SOS to date) and their 6 game losing streak came at the hands of Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, LA Rams, and Houston. They’ve been very competitive with 7 of their 11 losses coming by 1 score. For comparison’s sake, their game @ Tampa a few weeks ago (a 3 point loss) the Cards were +4. Last week Atlanta was +6.5 @ Tampa and now they are laying a FG @ Arizona on the road. In a few of their recent home games Arizona was +3.5 vs San Francisco and +2.5 vs Jacksonville. As you can see, we’re getting some solid line value with the Cardinals at +3 in this game. These 2 teams have faced off 10 times since 2009 and the home team has won all of those games. Atlanta has been a road favorite 3 times this season and lost all 3 of those games outright including @ NY Jets. Going back further the Falcons are just 5-15-1 ATS their last 21 road games as a favorite. Let’s grab the points with Arizona.

#742 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico State -3 over Sam Houston, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Really rough spot here for Sam Houston State as they are playing their 6th consecutive game away from home. NMSU hasn’t played a home game since November 21st and they are hungry for a win off 3 straight road losses. The Aggies have also had 8 days off while Sam Houston played at Oregon State on Wednesday and pulled the upset win to move to 8-0 ATS which actually sets this game up nicely with some line value. The Bearkats were +4 at Oregon State who ranks nearly 30 spots lower than New Mexico State (per KenPom) and now they are only +2.5 here vs a rested and desperate team. The Aggies are a perfect 4-0 at home this season including an 8 point win over a 9-2 New Mexico team that ranks 76th nationally. NMSU has one of the top defensive teams in the nation allowing opponent’s to shoot just 39% (37th) and they allow only 20 made FG’s per game (6th). They match up well here with Sam Houston as the Bearkats thrive on offensive rebounds to give them extra opportunities and the Aggies are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country (42nd). On the other end of the court NMSU is 54th in offensive rebounding and should get extra possessions vs a SHSU team that is 282nd in defensive rebounding. We like New Mexico State to get this home win and cover.

#116 ASA PLAY ON Carolina Panthers +3 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 1 PM ET - TB continues to be priced as if they are a solid team which isn’t the case right now. They’ve lost 6 in a row vs the spread losing 5 of those 6 outright. Their only win during that stretch was a 3 point win at home vs Arizona in a game the Cards outgained the Bucs by more than 100 yards. Tampa has now been outgained in 9 of their last 10 games. They’ve lost 3 games outright as a favorite just since November 8th. They are facing a Carolina team that lost @ New Orleans last week and the Panthers are 6-0 ATS this year coming off a loss. As a dog, the Panthers have beaten the Rams, Packers, Cowboys, Dolphins and Falcons all outright. Carolina is the better running team (9th in the NFL) with the better defense. Comparing the stats of these 2 NFC South rivals, the Panthers have YPG, YPP, YP rush, and YP pass attempt differentials. This game and their 2nd meeting in the season finale will decide who wins the NFC South (both teams currently 7-7). Hard to imagine saying this, but we trust Carolina right now more than Tampa Bay and we’re getting points at home. We’ll take it.

#700 ASA PLAY ON Arizona -14 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral court in Phoenix but Arizona should obviously have the crowd advantage. We have the Wildcats power rated as the 2nd best team in the country behind only Michigan. For comparison’s sake, San Diego State already played Michigan on a neutral court in Las Vegas and lost by 40 points. Zona already had FIVE top 30 wins on the season including blowout out Alabama by 21 points (in Birmingham, AL) and crushing Auburn by 29 points. The Cats also have wins @ UConn (Huskies only loss this season), and on neutral sites over UCLA and Florida. They are 10-0 on the season with an average PPG margin of +23 which is impressive considering their tough schedule thus far (44th SOS). San Diego State will actually only be the 5th highest rated team Arizona has faced this year. The Aztecs are 6-3 on the year despite playing an SOS nearly 100 spots lower than Arizona. They’ve faced just 2 top 50 teams this year losing to Michigan by 40 and Baylor by 10 (both neutral sites). The Wildcats sit in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom while SDSU is outside the top 50 in both. Arizona is the better shooting team (8th nationally in FG% to 88th for SDSU), the better defensive team (43rd in opponent FG% compared to 152nd for SDSU) and they rank 3rd in rebound rate while the Aztecs are 127th. San Diego State has had trouble stepping up in class with an 0-2 ATS record as a dog this year and 4-9 ATS dating back to the start of last season. We like Arizona to roll up a big win on Saturday night.

#689 ASA PLAY ON Xavier +4.5 over Georgetown, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - We were on Xavier Wednesday at home vs Creighton and they (and we) got embarrassed. XU was favored by 3.5 in that game and lost 98-57! The Blue Jays shot 60% from the field and 48% from beyond the arc. The Musketeers shot 36% from the field and 25% from deep. XU also turned the ball on almost 20% of their possessions and they entered the game #1 in offensive turnover rated coughing it up only 11% of the time. It was the Musketeers worst home loss EVER! It was just one of those games where everything went wrong for one team and everything went right for the other team. That gives us some value here with what should be a very motivated Xavier team. We’re also getting Georgetown coming off a road win as a dog (@ Marquette) which really sets this game up nicely for the dog. Even with that win, the Hoyas are still just 3-8 ATS on the season and when laying points this team is 0-5 ATS. Meanwhile, the Musketeers are 3-1 ATS as a dog winning 2 of those games outright. Xavier should get back to not turning the ball over here vs a G’Town team that doesn’t create turnovers ranking outside the top 200 in defensive turnover rate. We should also get a solid advantage from beyond the arc with XU hitting 36% of their triples (88th) while the Hoyas only make 28% (338th). The last 4 meetings between these 2 Big East rivals have all been decided by 6 points or less. Let’s take the points with Xavier.

#292 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -20.5 over James Madison, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET – CFB PLAYOFF ROUND ONE - JMU stepping way up in competition here and making the long travel to the west coast (almost 3000 miles). The Dukes have played by far the easiest schedule of the 12 CFP teams ranking 105th in SOS. The best team they faced this season was Louisville (29th per SP+) and JMU lost that game by 14 points. To put that in perspective, Louisville would rank as the 8th best team in the Big 10. Oregon played the 17th most difficult schedule and their only loss was by vs #1 Indiana. Even with that tough schedule, Oregon’s average margin of victory was 24 PPG. They are top 10 nationally in total offense, total defense, YPP offense, YPP defense, scoring offense, and they rank 11th in scoring defense. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, Oregon had better YPG, YPP, and PPG differentials when compared to James Madison. The Dukes have great defensive numbers, especially vs the run, however they faced an average run offense rank of 54th this season. Oregon ranks 8th in rush offense. On offense JMU averages 37 PPG, however the average total defense rank of the teams they faced was 84th and they faced 5 defenses ranked outside the top 100. While James Madison had a great season the talent disparity in this game is immense. Oregon has 58 four and five star recruits on their team while JMU has 3. This is such a huge step up in competition compared to what the Dukes have played this season and it’s on the road. We’ll lay it.

ASA NFL play on Washington Commanders +7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 5pm ET - We will grab the points with the Division home dog in this one and expect a much closer game than what is being suggested by the oddsmakers. Let’s not be fooled by the Eagles offensive outburst against the Raiders last week when they put up 31-points against a team that’s quit on the season. Philadelphia is still the same offense that averaged just 16ppg over their previous five games, topping 20 just once. Excluding the Raiders game, the Eagles averaged just 5.2YPP in their previous 5 games and have the 24th rated EPA since week 10. Washington has certainly underachieved this season but have dealt with injuries (QB Daniels) but we are betting they’ll be up for this division rival that knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago in a blowout, 55-23. The Commanders didn’t quit last week in their road win over the Giants 29-21 and will play at another level for this week’s opponent. The Eagles are 13-17 ATS last 30 as a road chalk and the Commanders are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with Philly. Teams off shutout wins are typically a bet against which has us on the home dog here.

#295 ASA PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Oklahoma, Friday at 8 PM ET – CFB ROUND 1 Game - We like the Crimson Tide to get the road win in this one. We faded Bama in the SEC Championship and picked up a big win with Georgia rolling 28-7. We think the Tide bounce back with a very solid performance after that embarrassing loss. They’ve also been hearing for a few weeks how they don’t belong in the playoffs with a 10-3 record and you can bet this team will rally around that narrative. These 2 met in mid November @ Alabama and the Sooners pulled off the 23-21 win as a 6.5 point dog. That game was decided by turnovers no questions asked. The Tide had 3 giveaways and Oklahoma had 0. The Sooners scored their only 2 TD’s directly off Alabama turnovers with an 87-yard pick 6 and a 30 yard TD drive after a fumbled punt. Bama outgained the Sooners 406 to 212 in that loss. Neither team could run the ball in that game and we don’t expect anything to change here (Tide had 80 yards rushing and OU had 74). Both teams rank outside the top 100 in rushing and both defense are very good vs the run. Both defenses rank in the top 10 nationally in total D but Alabama has an edge offensive and especially at QB which could be the difference here with both teams probably struggling to run the ball. The Crimson Tide have solid edges in YPG passing, completion % and yards per pass attempt. In their first meeting this season, Bama QB Simpson threw for 328 yards and OU QB Mateer just 138. Bama gets some key offensive players back for this one as their starting TE (30 receptions this year), RB (leading rusher), and RG are set to return after missing games leading up to this one. If we get the same or similar stat results in this rematch (minus the big turnover differential), Alabama should win and move on.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5 vs Chicago Bulls, 7:40pm ET - If you are a value numbers bettor then this play is for you. These same two teams just met on Wednesday in Chicago with the Cavs favored by -5.5 points. The Bulls won that game 127-111 but the line on the game is what has our attention, not the outcome. If Cleveland was favored by -5.5 in Chicago that means they should be at least -13 on their home court. In fact, the Cavs were just favored by -12.5 at home against the Hornets which is a fair comparison. Granted, the Cavaliers aren’t playing their best basketball right now but this team won 64 games a year ago with the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs have a season long eDIFF (efficiency differential) of +2.7 which ranks them 11th best in the NBA. Cleveland is 45-17 SU their last 52 home games with an average MOV of +8.3ppg. Chicago is a below .500 team at 11-15 SU on the season with an eDIFF of minus -5 which is 23rd overall in the NBA. The Bulls are a slightly better than average shooting team at 47.1% on the season but had an uncharacteristically great night against the Cavs on Wednesday, hitting 56% from the field. Chicago is 4—9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -4.3ppg. The Cavs had won 5 in a row in this series prior to Wednesday and we expect them to get back on track tonight with a revenge win by double-digits.

ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7pm ET - The Knicks were clearly a little hungover from their Cup championship win in Vegas over the Spurs on Tuesday night as they barely escaped Indiana with a win. NY trailed by as many as 16-points in the game and were playing shorthanded with Hart and Towns both out. That means, Brunson, Bridges and Anunoby had to shoulder the load. The 76ers have been off since December 14th and will come into this game fresh, rested and ready to play. Philly is 4-2 SU in their last six games and are starting to figure out their rotations with Paul George and Joel Embiid logging more minutes. Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey and his 31.5ppg will be back in the lineup tonight after missing two games with an illness. New York swept the 76ers in the four meetings a year ago but all the wins were relatively close with one game decided by 5 points and another by 6-points in OT. The Knicks have struggled with playing without rest going 5-13 ATS in that scheduling situation their last 18 games. They’ve also lost those games by an average of -2.7ppg. Scheduling clearly favors the Sixers in this one. Grab the points.

#756 ASA PLAY ON Long Beach St -3.5 over Pepperdine, Thursday at 10 PM ET - LBSU is just 2-9 on the season but they are much better than their record. They’ve faced a tough schedule to date (103rd) and they’ve been really close to beating some solid teams. They’ve had 9 days off since losing in OT @ San Jose State. Prior to that they lost at home vs a very good UC San Diego team (top 100) by 6 and lost @ UC Santa Barbara in OT. Since their first 2 games of the season in early November, double digit losses @ San Diego St and @ Fresno St, they’ve only had 1 loss by more than 6 or in OT. Pepperdine has played the much easier schedule (279th SOS) and after losing 5 straight games, including 3 at home, they finally picked up a win @ Cal State Bakersfield on Saturday. Interesting line comparison in that game is that Pepperdine was a 2 point dog in that game @ Bakersfield, who is ranked 315th and now they are 3 point dogs vs a LBSU team that ranks almost 70 spots higher despite their record. Pepperdine’s wins this year came at home vs Life Pacific, Lincoln of California (both non D1 teams) and New Orleans (currently 3-8 record) and then their road win @ Bakersfield. The Beach has better numbers offensively (efficiency, FG%, and 3 point FG%) and while their defensive numbers aren’t great, they’ve faced a very tough set of offensive teams thus far (average efficiency 87th). Pepperdine has faced teams with an average offensive and defensive efficiency outside the top 250. Last year LBSU was a 6 point dog @ Pepperdine and won outright making it a 6-1 run vs the Waves. This line is tight and Pepperdine has won only 4 of their last 18 road games. Long Beach is desperate for a win and the Waves will actually be the lowest rated D1 team they’ve faced this season. We’ll lay it.

#301 ASA PLAY ON Missouri State +1.5 over Arkansas State, Thursday at 9 PM ET – XBOX Bowl @ Frisco, TX - These 2 teams have played nearly the same strength of schedule this season (108th and 114th) and Missouri State has the much better numbers. The Bears have a +7 YPG differential, +0.2 YPP differential, and a +1.1 yards per pass attempt differential. Arkansas State’s numbers in those key margins are -33 YPG, -1.0 YPP, and -1.4 yards per pass differential. One down side here is Missouri State lost their head coach, Ryan Beard, to Coastal Carolina and he will not coach this game but the remainder of the staff seems to be in place. The Bears are also thrilled to be in this bowl game as this is their first year in FBS and their first ever bowl game. They should be extra motivated to win this one after losing their last 2 games to drop to 7-5 for the season. In those final 2 games the Bears played @ Kennesaw State (CUSA Champions) and lost by 7 but put up 535 total yards, outgained KSU but had 2 turnovers (0 for Kennesaw). KSU scored a TD with 27 seconds left to get that win. After that tough loss vs the best in the conference, Mizzou State threw up a dud on their home finale losing to La Tech. That gave them some motivation heading into this game. Arkansas State is just lucky to be here. They had to win 5 of their last 7 games just to get to 6-6 and qualify for a bowl. The Red Wolves won 3 of their last 5 games by a single point so they are fortunate to be here. Arkansas State beat Bowling Green in their bowl game last year despite getting outgained by 120 yards. They may not be as motivated to be here and they are overvalued right now in our opinion. We like Missouri State to win this one.

ASA NFL play on Seattle Seahawks -1 -115 vs. LA Rams, 8:15pm ET - It’s tough to beat a team twice in the same season, especially when the margin between these two teams is so fine. We grade the Rams as the best team in the NFL but only so slightly over the Seahawks. This scenario screams Seattle. Playing with revenge, at home off a horrible showing and playing for a share of the division lead. In the first meeting between these two teams the Rams won 21-19 but Seattle missed a game winning FG at the end of regulation and Hawks QB Darnold threw 4 INT’s. Seattle outgained the Rams 414 to 249 in total yards and 5.2YPP to 4.9YPP. Seattle is the much healthier team right now as the Rams will likely be without TD machine WR Adams who injured his hamstring on Sunday in their win over the Lions. Statistically there isn’t much that separates these two teams, so it comes down to situational advantages and line value on the home team. Back Seattle in this one.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Middle Tennessee State -4.5 over Kennesaw St, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - We like this spot for MTSU playing their 3rd straight home game but off a bad loss here vs a very good Belmont team (10-1 record) on December 7th. The Blue Raiders have now had 10 days off to let that loss fester and get ready for this one. The game prior to that loss they won here by 15 points vs a very solid UAB team. Middle Tennessee is 5-4 on the season but all 4 of their losses have come vs top 80 teams. They’ve played one of the more difficult schedules to date (23rd SOS) and still have a winning record. They have 2 solid wins over Murray State and UAB (both top 115 teams). Kennesaw State has an 8-2 record but they’ve faced only 1 top 100 team (19 point loss at home vs USF) and only 1 top 200 team (2 point OT win vs Florida Gulf Coast – 174th ranked team). The Owls strength of schedule is on the opposite end of the spectrum when compared to MTSU (339th SOS). Their other loss was by 8 points on a neutral court vs Oral Roberts who is ranked 295th per KenPom. In the month of December, KSU has faced Southern Wesleyan (non D1), Georgia State (332nd) and Jackson State (327th) all at home. Now they travel for the first time since November and take big step up in competition as MTSU will be the 2nd highest rated team they’ve faced this season. The Owls like to play up tempo (6th nationally in tempo) and the Blue Raiders will slow this one down (237th in tempo) and take them out of their comfort zone. KSU has only played one slow paced team this season and need an 11 point 2nd half comeback to beat Rice in OT (Rice is ranked 211th). They also send teams to the FT line at the highest rate in the country so we should have a solid advantage at the stripe. MTSU is 3-1 at home this season and they’ve won 20 of their last 25 games here. Let’s lay this small number.

#656 ASA PLAY ON Xavier -2.5 over Creighton, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - The Blue Jays simply aren’t playing well right now losing 4 of their last 6 games including getting knocked off by Kansas State at home on Saturday. They are just 5-5 on the season and have only 1 win vs a top 100 team. That was vs Oregon on a neutral court when the Ducks played without their best player (Nate Bittle) and lost another key player (Devon Pryor) 6 minutes into the game. The Jays have played 5 games away from home this season (road or neutral) and have just 1 win vs Oregon (In Las Vegas). Unlike Creighton, Xavier is playing very well right now ripping off 5 straight wins since losing by 1 point vs a very good Georgia team back on November 21st. This will be their 5th straight home game and they should be well rested as they’ve only played 3 games so far this month. The Musketeers don’t beat themselves as they almost never turn the ball over. They rank #1 in the country in offensive turnover percentage and that won’t change here vs a Creighton team that ranks 339th in defensive turnover percentage. Both teams rely quite heavily on the 3 point shot but Xavier simply does it better on both ends of the court with a better offensive and defensive 3 point FG% numbers. They rank inside the top 85 in both offensive and defensive 3 point FG% while the Blue Jays rank outside the top 200 in both. Away from home it gets worse for Creighton shooting just 26% from deep. XU has won 7 of the last 10 at home vs Creighton and we like them to get it done in this one as well.

#200 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State +2.5 over Troy, Tuesday at 9 PM ET – Veteran’s Bowl @ Montgomery, AL - JSU should have a huge rushing advantage here and we always like that situation when we’re considering an underdog. The Gamecocks rank 5th in the nation averaging 258 YPG on the ground on 5.5 YPC. They have not one, but two, 1,000 yard RB’s this season. They are facing a Troy defense that ranks outside the top 100 in both YPG rushing and YPC. JSU’s YPC margin is +1.4 as they average 5.5 YPC and allow just 4.1. Now to the other side of the ball. Troy can’t run the ball. They rank 130th (out of 136) averaging only 98 YPG on the ground on a paltry 2.8 YPC (132nd). Their YPC margin is -1.9 as they average 2.8 YPC and allow 4.7. They only topped 100 yards rushing 4 times in their 12 games vs FBS opponents. On top of that, they just lost their top RB Tae Meadows who was their only back with more than 320 yards rushing this season. The Jacksonville St defense is decent vs the run allowing 148 YPG on 4.1 YPC. Troy may also be without their starting QB Crowder who was injured in the Sun Belt Championship game vs JMU. Troy was a bit of a farce this year in our opinion. They were outgained in Sun Belt play (-70 YPG) and actually lost the yardage battle in 7 of their final 8 games yet still ended up with an 8-5 record. They did play a tougher schedule than JSU but the stat splits are quite drastic with JSU having a +0.3 YPP margin while Troy was -1.0 YPP. We’ll take the dog in this one.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee +1.5 over Louisville, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with Louisville as a 1.5 point road favorite and we’d be shocked if this didn’t flip to Tennessee favored. The Vols are in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses vs Kansas, Syracuse, and Illinois. All of those games were on the road or neutral sites and they’ve had 10 full days off to regroup and get ready for this important home. They are 5-0 this season and they are an impressive 65-5 SU at home since the start of the 2021 season. Prior to this 3 game losing streak the Vols were 7-0 including a win over National Runner Up Houston. They face the Louisville Cardinals who are 8-1 on the season with their only loss coming @ Arkansas. That was the Cards only true road game of the season and Tennessee is catching them off back to back impressive wins over Indiana and Memphis. Buy low, sell high spot in this game. Louisville relies heavily on the scoring from the arc with the highest 3 point attempt percentage in the country. That can go awry on the road at times as it did in their loss @ Arkansas where they took 37 triples and made only 8 (21%). Tonight they face one of the best defensive teams in the nation as Tennessee ranks 13th in defensive efficiency and they’ve allowed opponents to make only 29% of their triples. Tennessee should get extra opportunities on the offensive end as they corral 45% of their missed shots which ranks them #1 in the country in offensive rebounding. As we stated above, we don’t expect Tennessee to end up as a dog in this game but if this line sticks (currently +1.5) it will be the first time they’ve been a home underdog since February 8th, 2020 vs Kentucky. The Vols have not lost 4 games in a row since the 2015/16 season and we don’t expect it to happen here.

#624 ASA PLAY ON Wright State +1 over Miami OH, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Miami OH steps into this game with a perfect 10-0 record yet in some books they are an underdog vs a Wright State team that is 5-6 so far this year. Hmmm? The Redhawks sit undefeated because they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (364th SOS out of 365 teams!). They have yet to face a single team ranked inside KenPom’s top 200 and 6 of their 10 opponents are ranked outside the top 300 or not a D1 team. Of the 8 Division 1 teams they’ve faced, not one has more than 4 wins this season and their combined record is 22-70! This Wright State team will be by far the best team they’ve faced this season (ranked 144th). This is also the 3rd straight road game in the span of 7 days. Their last 2 games, @ UNC Asheville (ranked 237th) and @ Eastern Kentucky (ranked 270th), they won by 3 in OT and by 10. Wright State has played the much more difficult schedule (143rd SOS) and they’ve played only 4 home games and 7 on the road. They are 3-1 in their home games this season and they’ve faced 6 teams ranked 165th or higher. All but 1 of their 6 losses have been by 10 points or less and half of their losses (3) have come by 2 points or less or in OT. The Raiders are very close to having a much better record. Wright State has dominated this series winning 6 in a row, all since the start of the 2019 season. The Raiders have covered 4 of their last 5 (only non-cover @ Butler) and they are happy to be back home and in need of a win. This team is undervalued and we like them to win and cover this one on Tuesday.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10:40pm ET - The Grizzlies went through a stretch of playing really well with wins in 7 of nine games. Then they lost Zach Edey to injury and got Ja Morant back from injury. They proceeded to lose at home to the lowly Jazz most recently after the lineup change. Without Edey’s rim protection and Morant’s horrible shooting (7/20) the Grizzlies are a much worse team. This is a great opportunity to buy low on the Clippers who have lost 11 of their last fourteen games. A closer look though and you see that 12 of those 14 were on the road and 9 of those came against teams with winning records. Also included in that stretch of games is a pair of losses to this Grizzlies team, which had Edey in the lineup and were without the distraction of Morant in both. The Clippers were recently a -2-point favorite at Memphis and were laying -6.5 at home in late November. Los Angelese looked much better in their two most recent losses to the Timberwolves and Rockets, two of the best teams in the West, and should get a convincing home win in this one after 3 days rest. The Clippers have an average +/- of +5.5ppg when playing on 2-3 days rest dating back to the start of last season and are also 22-16-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2024. We like the Clippers by 8+.