THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from Southampton, New York, to Cromwell, Connecticut, for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated signature event for the 2026 season, with 72 professionals playing for the elevated cash prizes at this no-cut event. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6844 yards, the course is the shortest track on the PGA Tour this year. The Kentucky bluegrass and fescue rough is at least 4 1/2 inches in length. The fairways average 30 yards in width. The pros will contend with 69 sand bunkers and water hazards impacting five of the holes. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua, with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. These are some of the smallest greens on the tour, averaging 5400 square feet, but that needs to be contextualized by this being one of the shorter courses as well, which means the approach shots are closer on average. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. The pros land their drives in the fairways almost 70% of the time at this course, as compared to the 62% fairways hit average overall on the PGA Tour. This tournament was the easiest Par 70 course on the PGA Tour two years ago. Last year’s event was impacted by heavy wind gusts, yet the average score per round was still 69.238.

LONG SHOT: Alex Fitzpatrick (+5900 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fitzpatrick (7118) versus Ben Griffin (7117) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 7:52 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Alex Fitzpatrick, who is listed at +5900 odds at DraftKings. Our boy Matt’s little brother has thrived since earning his PGA Tour card by joining with him to win the PGA Zurich Classic of New Orleans doubles event in April. Since then, he has added three more top nine or better finishes in his next four PGA Tour events. Six of his seven PGA Tournaments have resulted in a top 23 or better after his 23rd place at the US Open last week. The younger Fitzpatrick did not come out of nowhere — he has four top 20 finishes on the European DP Tour, including a victory at the difficult Hero Indian Open. With his tie for sixth place at The Memorial at the beginning of the month, he has finished in the top ten in six of his last nine tournaments worldwide. His three top tens in solo events on the PGA Tour this spring have all been highly competitive Signature Events — so he is not taking advantage of weaker fields. He gained strokes versus the field in Off the Tee in all those events — and he would rank in the 11th on the PGA Tour, just ahead of Cameron Young, in that metric if he had the sample size to qualify for those rankings. While I don’t love that he has not played this track as a professional, that has not stopped him yet, since he has been a debutante everywhere since getting his PGA Tour card with the win in New Orleans in April. Michael Thorbjornsen finished fourth in his debut at TPC River Highlands back in 2022 — and while Google’s broken search engine that is now just data grabbing using AI to deliver it’s searches suggests there was a first-timer who finished second at this tournament, I cannot assign the correct search prompts to get the rebranded search engine database to present that answer or a source that would answer that question (so it was probably hallucinating). Needless to say, I trust Fitzpatrick debuting on this course more than I trust 2026 Google-driven AI. 

Fitzpatrick is linked with Ben Griffin in Round One head-to-head props. Griffin comes off a tie for 17th place at the US Open last week. Admittedly, after a slow start to the 2026 season, he is moving in the right direction back to his breakout 2025 campaign. In the last two months, he has had two top-three finishes, a top ten, and two more top 20s. But he also has a missed cut at The Memorial two weeks ago and a meager tie for 63rd place at the PGA Truist Championship last month. Griffin has always been great with his short game. His breakthrough last season was because of his dramatically improved play with his irons and his driver. In 2025, he ranked 22nd on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranked 58th in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee — and that helped him rank 19th in Shots-Gained: Tee to Green. But this season, Griffin’s irons have plummeted to 119th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. His driver has not been as effective either, as he ranks 92nd in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee. The result is that Griffin ranks 70th in Shots-Gained: Tee to Green this year. His great short game will not carry him this week on a course where his record is mixed. He finished in a tie for 14th place last year — but he has missed the cut and settled for 67th place in his other two professional visits. Take Fitzpatrick (7118) versus Griffin (7117) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from Southampton, New York, to Cromwell, Connecticut, for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated signature event for the 2026 season, with 72 professionals playing for the elevated cash prizes at this no-cut event. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6844 yards, the course is the shortest track on the PGA Tour this year. The Kentucky bluegrass and fescue rough is at least 4 1/2 inches in length. The fairways average 30 yards in width. The pros will contend with 69 sand bunkers and water hazards impacting five of the holes. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua, with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. These are some of the smallest greens on the tour, averaging 5400 square feet, but that needs to be contextualized by this being one of the shorter courses as well, which means the approach shots are closer on average. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. The pros land their drives in the fairways almost 70% of the time at this course, as compared to the 62% fairways hit average overall on the PGA Tour. This tournament was the easiest Par 70 course on the PGA Tour two years ago. Last year’s event was impacted by heavy wind gusts, yet the average score per round was still 69.238.

BEST BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+1750 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7003) versus Ludvig Aberg (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:00 AM ET. 

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Travelers Championship is on Tommy Fleetwood, who is listed at +1750 yards to take first place at this event at DraftKings. Fleetwood should always be considered on shorter tracks where power off the tee is not rewarded — and he has a revenge and redemption story for this course that I will describe at the end of this paragraph. While he only ranks 94th on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance, he ranks fifth in Driving Accuracy. Fleetwood comes off a second straight tie for 11th place at the US Open, which matched his 11th-place result at the RBC Canadian Open two weeks ago. With a tie for fourth place at The Memorial three weeks ago, he has three top-five or better results in his last five PGA tournaments — and he has four top 11 results in his last five tournaments. Fleetwood removed the albatross from his PGA Tour career by winning the Tour Championship last August. Of course, Fleetwood has eight victories on the DP Tour — including the DP World India Tour in October — so closing the deal on the PGA Tour was considered just a matter of time. Since his return to the PGA Tour in February, he has been playing with as much confidence as he has in the United States in his career. He debuted on the PGA Tour with a tie for fourth place at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He has five top-four or better finishes worldwide since winning the PGA Tour Championship in Atlanta. At THE PLAYERS Championship in March, he finished in a tie for eighth place while leading the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. So far in 2026, he ranks fifth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and ranks second in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. That is a potent combination. He also ranks in the top five on the tour in Fairways Hit and Scrambling. His underlying metrics were outstanding last season. He ranked third on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and sixth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Fleetwood always has had the talent to be a top-five player in the world — he has previously finished in second place at the British Open (two top fours) and US Open (three top fives), along with a third-place result at the Masters and a tie for fifth place at the PGA Championship in his career. Fleetwood settled for co-runner-up at this tournament last year when he bogeyed two of the last three holes in Round Four on Sunday to blow his lead — so he has unfinished business at this event. Of course, he began his Redemption Tour later that summer by winning the PGA Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta, Georgia, almost walking distance to the previous home offices of Hollywood Sports before our relocation out west. Fleetwood has three top 15 finishes at this course in his five professional trips. Since 2024, he has averaged +1.5 strokes gained per round versus at TPC River Highlands and comparative courses. 

Fleetwood is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. We have made money on Aberg in the past — but like at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club last week, this golf course is not a great fit for Aberg’s game, which remains too dependent on his power off the tee. I appreciate that Aberg has won at another short golf course at the RSM Classic and that he finished in second place at Pebble Beach in his career — but he remains better positioned when he can use his driving distance as a weapon. He finished in a tie for 17th last week at the US Open, which is tied for his best result in his last three tournaments. Aberg’s short game remains his weakness. He ranks 98th on the PGA Tour in Scrambling. He then ranks 73rd in Sand Save Percentage, which is not a good sign with 69 sand bunkers looming this week. He has made the cut in his three previous professional appearances at this tournament, but has not finished better than 24th place after his 36th-place result last year. This is a Tournament Matchup prop as well, and Aberg has some Sunday Round Four issues to address regarding his decision-making. He has shot 70 or worse in six of his last nine final rounds. Take Fleetwood (7003) versus Aberg (7004) in the Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from Southampton, New York, to Cromwell, Connecticut, for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated signature event for the 2026 season, with 72 professionals playing for the elevated cash prizes at this no-cut event. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6844 yards, the course is the shortest track on the PGA Tour this year. The Kentucky bluegrass and fescue rough is at least 4 1/2 inches in length. The fairways average 30 yards in width. The pros will contend with 69 sand bunkers and water hazards impacting five of the holes. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua, with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. These are some of the smallest greens on the tour, averaging 5400 square feet, but that needs to be contextualized by this being one of the shorter courses as well, which means the approach shots are closer on average. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. The pros land their drives in the fairways almost 70% of the time at this course, as compared to the 62% fairways hit average overall on the PGA Tour. This tournament was the easiest Par 70 course on the PGA Tour two years ago. Last year’s event was impacted by heavy wind gusts, yet the average score per round was still 69.238.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Russell Henley (+3400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Henley (7011) versus Si Woo Kim (7012) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:30 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds to win the PGA Travelers Championship is on Russell Henley, who is listed at +3400 odds at DraftKings. Shorter courses that reward accuracy over distance are ideal for Henley. Admittedly, he has been inconsistent this year — and he comes off a tie for 65th place at the US Open last week after shooting a round of 80 in Round Three on Saturday. But he did rebound on Sunday by gaining +3.4 strokes versus the field in the approach. It has been hit or miss in 2026 — he won the PGA Charles Schwab Challenge and finished third at the Masters while adding another six top 22 or better results. Given his upside and his price outside the top ten favorites at +3400, I want in. His accuracy off the tee and with his irons, his elite wedge play, and his putting skills simply make him a great fit for this course. In his 121 rounds on Pete Dye-designed courses, he ranks 10th in the world in Shots-Gained: Total. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy — and he leads the tour in distance from the edge of the fairway. He then ranks fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 150-175 yards from the pin. He is at his best when tested with his short irons and wedges. Last season, he was second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from inside 100 yards — and he led the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 75 to 100 yards out. He also ranked fifth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 50 to 125 yards from the pin. He also ranks fifth on the tour in Bogey Avoidance this season — so he is not likely to give many birdies back. On courses considered short like TPC River Highlands or Pebble Beach, he finished tied for 19th place or better in nine of his last ten events since the beginning of 2025 — and he has six top tens over that span. He finished in a tie for second place at this tournament last year — and he added another four top 19s, including a sixth-place finish in 2018. He has made the cut in seven of his eight professional appearances here. Since 2024, he has gained +1.34 Strokes Gained per round at TPC River Highlands or similar golf courses.

Henley is linked with Si Woo Kim in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Kim has a similar profile to Henley as he is one of the most accurate ball strikers on the tour — and he ranks third on the PGA Tour in Shots Gained: Approach the Green. But it’s tough to trust his putting in what shapes up to be a scoring fest. He ranks 103rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He also has closing issues. In six of his last 10 Sunday Round Fours, he has shot 70 or worse six times. He missed the cut last week at the US Open. Now he moves to TPC River Highlands where he has never finished in the top 10 in nine professional appearances — and he has missed the cut four times and withdrew last year. Take Henley (7011) versus Kim (7012) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.