ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +15.5 at Minnesota Lynx, 9pm ET - The Sparks are coming off a game last night in Chicago but the oddsmakers have over-inflated this number so the value lies with Los Angeles. WNBA teams playing without rest this season are 5-7 ATS so there isn’t much there concerning the no rest angle. Minnesota is in a tough scheduling situation of their own as they are coming off a huge home win over Indiana the other night and have Las Vegas and Dallas looming. Fading Minnesota as a big home favorite has been money in the bank as they’ve failed to cover 7 straight when laying more than 10+ points at home. Yes, the Lynx have the best home scoring differential in the league and L.A.’s road numbers aren’t great but this number is too high, especially when you consider these same two teams met on this court recently with the Lynx favored by -11.5 points. This is an ugly one but grab the points with Los Angeles and expect them to hang around or at least get a backdoor cover with Minnesota possibly calling off the dogs late with a few big games on deck.

#954 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 (-150) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 6:05 PM ET - The Phillies are off a 10-4 loss in extra innings yesterday. They are 4-0 the last 4 times they have entered a game off a loss in which they allowed 10 or more runs and they won those games by a combined score of 17 to 3! Also, Philadelphia is expected to have Christopher Sanchez on the mound here and he has been fantastic at home this season with a total of only 12 earned runs allowed over his 13 starts! Sanchez has allowed only 63 hits in 84 and 1/3 innings over those 13 starts while striking out 98 in those outings! He has been nothing short of phenomenal at home with a 9-1 record and 1.28 ERA on the season. The Phillies had won 4 straight games prior to yesterday's loss while Washington had lost 7 straight prior to yesterday's win. The Nats last 5 losses in that streak were all by 2+ runs! The Nationals are expected to send Miles Mikolas to the mound and he has a 6.30 ERA since mid-June plus has allowed 18 earned runs in his last 22 and 2/3 innings in road outings. 13 of Philadelphia's last 14 wins have been by 2+ runs. Home blowout here. Lay the -1.5 runs with the Phillies.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury +6.5 at Atlanta Dream, 7pm ET - Phoenix has been a bit of an enigma this season with a 12-19 SU record, with essentially the same roster as the one that played in the Finals last year. They went all in with a trade for perennial All-Star and instant bucket Kelsey Plum, who is averaging 23.6ppg. The Mercury are clearly trending up with a 4-1 SU record int their last five games with the lone loss coming to New York. The improvement clearly shows in the numbers as they have the 5th best Net rating in the W over that 5-game stretch at +4.2. The biggest reason for that jump in Net ratings is their defense that has played at a very high level. Now with Plum in the lineup to improve the offense this team could be dangerous if they make the playoffs. Atlanta is 5-1 SU their last six games but have a worst Net rating (+1.6) in the same 5-game span as the Mercury. The Dreams wins are less impressive as they came against the Sparks, Tempo, Sky, Storm with one good win over the Wings. In fact they only covered 1 of those games and have just one cover in their last ten games. Atlanta is better than average in both offensive and defensive ratings but they don’t shoot it well with an eFG% of 49.4% which ranks 12th worst in the league. The Mercury with Plum will see a bump in their scoring and shooting and should make plenty of shots against a Dream team that is last in the league in opponents FG% allowed. Grab the points with Phoenix is this one.

ASA WNBA play on Toronto Tempo +13.5 at Golden State Valkyries, 10pm ET - These same two teams just met the other night with Golden State winning by 17-points on this same court. The game was closer than the final score shows as the Tempo actually led in the 3rd quarter at one point before succumbing to the Valkyries superior depth. Toronto gets some help with the addition of Aneesah Morrow who was recently acquired by the Tempo in a trade with Connecticut. Toronto had an uncharacteristically bad 3-point shooting night against GST the other night when they made just 7/30 3-point attempts (23%) which is drastically lower than their season average of 35.7% which is 3rd best in the W. Golden State on the other hand shot well above expectations at 49% overall and 48% from deep considering they are last in the league in team FG% at 42.1% overall and 7th in 3PT% at 35.2%. Golden State is one of the best teams in the league, but they have an average +/- of plus +5.7PPG which makes it difficult to cover big spreads. Toronto’s one of the worst teams in the league at 10-19 with an average +/- of minus -5.9PPG but general math still doesn’t have the Valks covering this spread. Toronto is 8-4 ATS on the road this season and should keep this game closer than the expected Vegas number.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks +1.5 at Portland Fire, 3:30pm ET - The betting markets are split on this game with a few of the Sharp books carrying a lower number than the public ones. A clear indication to back the pros and fade the joes. These two teams have similar overall numbers with the Sparks having a net scoring differential of minus -5.0ppg versus the Fire who have a negative scoring differential of minus -5.6ppg. Defensively these are two of the worst teams in the league with the Sparks ranking 13th, the Fire ar 14th. Offensively the Sparks rank 1-spot ahead of the Fire 9th compared to 10th. One key aspect that LA has an advantage comes with less turnovers. The Sparks are 9th in TO%, the Fire are 14th. Portland is in unfamiliar territory here being a favorite for just the 5th time this season. They are 2-2 ATS in that role and our model has the Sparks favored by -1-point in this match up. Los Angeles can at least make shots with the 5th best FG% in the league at 46.3% and should end their 6-game losing streak with a road win in Portland today.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -2.5 at Phoenix Mercury, 3pm ET - This is a great spot to back the Liberty and fade the Mercury. New York is coming off a controversial loss in Las Vegas on Thursday after all 3 officials blew a call late in the game which should have given the Liberty the ball and a chance to send the game to OT. But in typical WNBA fashion, they blatantly screwed up and it cost the Liberty in the end. NY had won 3 straight games and historically have done well when coming off a loss with a 24-16 SU record since 2024. NY has not played up to expectations this season but still have a 15-12 SU record and a Net rating of +3.0. Phoenix on the other hand has been a major disappointment this season with a veteran roster coming back after playing in the Finals a year ago. Phoenix is 10-18 SU on the season with a Net differential of minus -4.2. The Mercury are 5-9 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of minus -2.8PPG. In comparison, the Liberty are 8-8 SU on the road this season with a positive average MOV of +0.5PPG. Phoenix is coming off a very big win at home over Golden State and could letdown here off that upset as a +4.5-point dog. On that topic, what a great line comparison with the Valkyries laying -4.5-points and now the Liberty are minus -2.5. The biggest on court advantage we see for NY is their ability to make 3-poitners at a 35.2% clip (5th best) going up against a Mercury D that is last in the W in 3PT% defense. Big time bounce back game for New York.

#917 ASA PLAY ON Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-105) over Athletics, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Red Sox won again yesterday and they remain on fire as their run is now 19-3 (86%) and, going a little further back, 24-5 for an 83% winning rate over the past 5 weeks! The Athletics are dead last in the majors with a 5.52 bullpen ERA while Boston is #1 with a 2.99 bullpen ERA. As for the starting pitchers here, the Athletics are likely going with a bullpen game as injuries have hurt this starting rotation. Boston's Sonny Gray, on the other hand, is having a huge season yet he is off a rare tougher outing where he allowed 5 earned runs but all 5 came with 2 outs in the 3rd inning! The Red Sox are 4-0 this season with Gray on the mound when he is off a start in which Boston lost. Yes, they have never lost B2B Gray outings this season and he is 12-2 with a 2.78 ERA this season. Also, the Red Sox are 14-4 in his last 18 starts and 13 of the 14 wins were by at least a 2-run margin! Prior to a tough start in Gray's most recent outing, he allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in 5 outings and this spanned 32 and 1/3 innings! The Athletics were once 38-38 on the season and since then they are on a 7-25 run! This is a classic case of one of the hottest teams (24-5 run) in the league facing one of the coldest teams (7-25 run) in the league. Combining that with a massive bullpen edge and a massive starting pitching edge (Gray has been great and A's have injury issues at starting pitcher), we have no hesitation in laying the run line in this one Thursday. 21 of the A's 25 losses (84%) in their 7-25 run have come by a multi-run margin. Red Sox wins with Gray on the mound have come by a multi-run margin in 13 of the 14 victories. Lay the 1.5 runs with Boston for our lone MLB selection on Thursday and this one goes in late night action. We forecast a road rout in this one after the Red Sox did prevail yesterday yet should have scored a lot more as they left 13 men on base in that one. Boston scores big here and Gray comes up big as well.

ASA WNBA play on Chicago Sky -4.5 vs. Connecticut Sun, 8pm ET - Connecticut is on a downward trajectory with three straight losses and currently stands 7-21 for the season. By Net rating metrics the Sun are the worst team in the league at -8.9. In comparison, the Sky rank 8th in Net rating at -2.4. The Sun are 3-11 SU on the road this season with the worst average scoring differential in the W at minus -10.8PPG. Chicago has played well since they made some lineup adjustments and could potentially make a playoff run with 17 games to play and only out of the 8th spot by six games. The Sky have the 6th best Net rating over the last 10-games at +2.8 which is a great indicator of just how well they are currently playing. In fact, we just won a bet on the Mystics over the Sun the other night and laid -6.5 points in that game and you can argue the Sky are currently playing better than Washington is. Chicago is 9-18 SU on the season but eleven of those losses have come by single digits. The home team has won both meetings this season and most recently it was the Sun winning at home 92-63 as a +3.5-point home dog on June 22nd. Chicago should remember that beating and based on that spread, the Sky are a bargain here at home favored by the current number. It also helps that the Sun will be without Griner tonight who leads the team in scoring and is 2nd in rebounding. Easy call here with Chicago.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury +5.5 vs. Golden State Valkyries, 10pm ET - The value in the number is what first got our attention on this play followed by the betting markets reaction and the current line move. GST was favored by -7.5 points at home in early June and won 87-81. Based on that number the Mercury should be a +1.5 point dog at best in this rematch. I’ll be honest, I’m very anti Phoenix this season as they haven’t played to the level of the team that was in the Championship last season with essentially the same roster. They did win two straight going into the AS break and are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games. They are playing slightly better in their last 10 games compared to their season long statistics and we expect a focused effort after a few days off. Golden State has exceeded expectations this season with a 19-8 SU record and currently rate as the 3rd best team in the W. The Valkyries are 3-2 ATS as a road chalk this season but we expect a regression in that number as inflated numbers will eventually catch up to them, as will be the case today. Golden State was recently favored by -5.5 points at Connecticut who is the worst team in the league so we’re not about to pass up this number with a much better Phoenix team at home.

#951 ASA PLAY ON 4* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 (-105) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 12:10 PM ET - The Phillies are off a 1-0 loss yesterday. They are 15-3 the last 18 times they have entered a game off a loss in which they scored 2 or less runs!  Also, Philadelphia is expected to have Jesus Luzardo on the mound here and he has been fantastic with a total of only 8 earned runs allowed over his last 8 starts!  Luzardo has allowed only 29 hits in 49 and 1/3 innings over those 8 starts while striking out 72 in those outings!  He has been nothing short of phenomenal with his current form.  The Marlins send Ryan Gusto to the mound and he is 7-9 with a 5.37 ERA in his career and also has been mediocre this season in his 12 games (7 starts). The Phillies pounded him already this season and they do it again here.  9 of Philadelphia's last 10 wins have been by 2+ runs.  The Marlins had lost 12 straight before these B2B tight wins and in the last 11 Miami losses 10 have been by 2+ runs!  Road rout here.  Lay the -1.5 with Phillies

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics -6.5 vs. Connecticut Sun, 7:30pm ET - This line opened lower than it currently sits and moved a point and a half quickly in favor of the Mystics but our model says it’s still not big enough. Washington has been a big surprise this season with a roster that’s made up of all first- or second-year players. They currently sit in 8th in the final playoff spot as the second half of the season begins tonight. Connecticut has had their ups and downs this season with a young roster and currently stand 7-20 for the season. By Net rating metrics the Sun are the worst team in the league at -8.9. In comparison, the Mystics rank 9th in Net rating at -3.3. The Sun are 3-10 SU on the road this season with the worst average scoring differential in the W at minus -10.8PPG. Washington went into the AS break with a pair of impressive wins against the Valkyries and Aces, two of the best teams in the league. They have won 6 of their last ten games with one of those losses coming at Connecticut 57-68 as a -4.5-point road favorite. Washington’s stifling defense (0.995-points per possession allowed) won’t have a problem containing a Sun’s O that is one of the worst in the league. We expect the Mystics to build off their positive momentum before the break and extend their winning streak to 3 with a win tonight over the Sun.

#952 ASA MLB PLAY ON Atlanta Braves Run Line -1.5 (-120) over San Diego Padres, Thursday @ 12:15 ET - Great spot for a home rout win for the Braves. Atlanta has a huge pitching edge here with Chris Sale (35-14 record with a 2.36 ERA L3 years) over the Padres Griffin Canning (1-8, 6.67 ERA this season). The Braves had a wild 7-6 win over San Diego yesterday but this one has the makings of a much more comfortable victory. Atlanta has won 5 of its last 7 games as they look to be heating up again and they are 31-20 at home this season while the Padres are 22-37 against teams that currently have a winning record on the season. San Diego is only 6-12 against NL East teams this season. Also, the Braves have 59 wins this season and 46 victories have been by 2+ runs. The Padres already have 52 losses on the season and 37 of the defeats have been by a multi-run margin. San Diego is currently on a 3-10 slide in road games. The Padres on base percentage versus lefties this season is dead last in the National League and their slugging percentage versus southpaws is 2nd to last in the NL. We expect Sale, a lefty, to give the San Diego lineup a lot of trouble here. So this one sets up well for a strong play with very little juice on the price and we can lay the run line of 1.5 runs with confidence here. Lay it with the Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the run line.

ASA WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces -6 at Washington Mystics, 7:30 pm ET - Washington is a young up-and-down team which can be really good one night, then bad the next. Tonight it will be a combination of the ‘bad’ along with the good of the Aces that will determine this outcome. Washington is coming off a really big road win at Golden State on Monday and may be looking forward to the All-Star break. The Mystics are 6-6 ATS this season when coming off a win with an average negative point differential of minus -7.6ppg. They haven’t been great at home this season with a 5-6 spread record. Washington has the worst offensive rating in the W this season at 99.1 which will be the difference in this one. The Aces on the other hand have the 2nd best O-rating at 112.7 on the season and are putting up an average of 90.5ppg (3rd). Las Vegas had won 2 straight games in impressive fashion, then lost badly at home to Indiana before trouncing Toronto last time out by 26-points. We expect that momentum to carry over for this veteran team looking to make a positive statement before the break. Las Vegas is 11-2 SU on the road this season with an average +/- of +8.8ppp with their last seven road wins all coming by 8+ points. Washington may have a slight advantage defensively when you compare these two teams but it’s not enough to offset the disparity in the offenses. Lay it with the Aces!

ASA WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces -10.5 at Toronto Tempo, 8pm ET - We typically don’t recommend laying double -digits on the road but will make an exception tonight. The Tempo has some major injury concerns as Sabally, Sykes and Rice have all been out with injuries. Now they can add Marina Mabrey to the list which is a significant blow considering she is averaging over 21PPG. The Tempo have fallen into a bit of a funk lately with a 1-6 SU record in their last seven games. In that 7-game stretch the Tempo has the worst Net rating in the league at -14 and have an average loss margin of -11PPG. Las Vegas on the other hand is 5-2 SU in their last seven games but are coming off an embarrassing 34-point loss at home to the Fever most recently. The Aces typically bounce back after a loss with a 22-13-1 ATS record in that role dating back to 2024. LV is 10-2 SU on the road this season with the 2nd best average MOV of +7.9PPG. Toronto has lost 6 of their last 7 at home with 4 of those coming by double digits. Toronto’s injuries, plus missing their head coach tonight (suspension), coupled with the Aces coming off a bad loss make this a solid spot to back Las Vegas.

ASA WNBA play on Chicago Sky +12 at Atlanta Dream, 4pm ET - This is a big number considering just how well the Sky are currently playing. The Sky have won 3 of their last five games with one of those losses coming by just 5-points in Dallas. In fact, prior to this current 5-game streak, the Sky had lost two games to the Aces (one in Vegas) by 8 points each. Chicago has the 5th best Net rating over this 5-game span, and the turnaround seems to have come when they benched Skyler Diggins. Atlanta is 3-1 SU in their last four games but prior to that had lost 5 in a row. They are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games and continue to be overvalued by the markets. A direct comparison of each teams last 5-games and current playing form tells the main story here. As we mentioned, the Sky have the 5th best Net rating in that span of games, the Dream have the 12th worst at -5.3. The big difference between these two teams is defensive as the Sky have the 7th best FG% D and 2nd best 3PT% D. The Dream allow opponents to hit 45% from the field (15th) and 33.5% from beyond the arc which ranks 14th. Take the points with the defensive dog.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -2 at Indiana Fever, 8pm ET - This game sets up perfectly for a wager backing the Liberty who come into this game rested (last played July 12th), off 3 straight loses, while Indiana is coming off a tight win last night and playing their 3rd game in 4 days. It’s no secret the WNBA is trying to stifle Caitlyn Clark and her on court success as she doesn’t fit their overall narrative. Her coach White has been limiting her minutes even though she continues to say she’s fine. Last night White couldn’t keep her off the court as she was putting up a historical performance with 45 points and 10 assists. She also played nearly 30 minutes so we’re betting she plays significantly less today. The Fever barely beat a struggling Seattle team 110-107 as their defense continues to be their Achilles Heel (Odyssey reference seemed appropriate) as they allowed one of the very worst shooting teams in the league to hit 57% overall and 38% from deep, both well above their season standards. Indiana is 11th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.038-points per possession. New York coming into this game very well rested and angry with a current 3-game losing streak. Two of those three loses though came against Minnesota and Dallas which is acceptable. The most recent loss though was at Toronto which isn’t acceptable as they were a -7.5-point favorite. The Liberty are better defensively ranking 5th in dEFF allowing 1.027PPP and though the Fever rank first in offensive efficiency and New York is 5th, we rate the Liberty better than their season long stats as they’ve played a portion of their season without Sabrina Ionescu. The Liberty have won 3 straight in the series including a home win in early June by 8-points. The Liberty are 20-12 SU since 2024 when playing with a rest advantage, 23-16 SU when coming off a loss in their last 29 in that role and the kicker…14-1 SU since 2024 when playing with 4 or more days rest.

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun +5 at Phoenix Mercury, 10 pm ET - These teams have similar overall records at 6-18 for the Sun, 8-17 SU for the Mercury, but a closer look at how each team are currently playing tells a different story. Both teams are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games, but the Sun have a Net rating of -0.5 compared to the Mercury at -5.0. Phoenix has been favored in just 8-games this season with a 3-5 ATS record and an average +/- in those games of +2.9PPG. Connecticut on the other hand is 12-8 ATS as a dog this season. Brittney Griner will be facing her former team and can have a major impact on this outcome as she’s playing well at this junction of the season. In the last two games that Griner has played in she’s put up 49 total points and 14 rebounds. She is averaging 14ppg/5.6rpg for the season. We are grabbing the points with the Dog in this one.

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics -1 at Toronto Tempo, 7 pm ET - The oddsmakers are begging us to bet the home team Tempo here but we won’t bite and will instead back the Mystics. Washington is getting healthy again with the return of their leading scorer Sonai Citron (18.7ppg) and are coming off a home win over Seattle. The Mystics have won 3 of their last four games and have a winning road record on the season at 6-5 SU. We expect Toronto to let down here after a massive upset of the Liberty on Sunday. The Tempo are down two starters with Brittney Sykes and Kiki Rice both sidelined. Prior to their upset of New York, the Tempo had lost 4 straight games all by 8+ points. Washington has already beaten this Toronto team twice this season which clearly suggests a match up advantage. The biggest difference between these two teams comes on the defensive end of the court as the Mystics have the 3rd best defensive rating in the league – the Tempo are 15th or dead last in the W. Defense travels…take the visitor in this one.

ASA WNBA play on Indiana Fever +4.5 at Las Vegas Aces, 9pm ET - Scheduling certainly favors the Fever in this matchup as they are playing with two days rest after beating the Mercury in Phoenix 92-89 on Thursday night. Las Vegas on the other hand played yesterday and will also be playing their 3rd game in four days. These are the top two teams in the league in offensive efficiency ratings with the Aces averaging 1.081-points per possession, the Fever are 2nd at 1.074PPP. Las Vegas has a slightly better defensive efficiency at 1.021PPP allowed but Indiana is close with a dEFF of 1.032PPP allowed. LV is 5-6 ATS as a home chalk this season with an average margin of victory of +3.8PPG, while the Fever are 2-2 ATS as a road dog with an average +/- of -2.8PPG. Indiana recently won on this court 84-68 in a game missing two of the league’s biggest stars A’ja Wilson of the Aces and Caitlyn Clark of the Fever. Both are expected to play today. We like Indiana’s 3rd best 3PT% shooting to be the equalizer here against an Aces D which is 11th in 3PT% defense. Grab the points in what should be a close game.

FIFA World Cup #225611 ASA PLAY ON Switzerland +0.5 (+125) over Argentina, Saturday at 9 ET - We expect Switzerland to come up big with an upset win here as Argentina has shown some vulnerability, to say the least, in recent matches.  However, we also fully realize that the upset may not come until after stoppage time.  Indeed this match could be decided in added extra time or on penalty kicks and we like the 'plus plus' option here of Switzerland on the goal line.  In terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw (after stoppage time and before extra time) would also be a win since the goal line is at +0.5 goals for Switzerland in this one.  It is also available at solid plus money too.  Hence, the 'plus plus' option we are referencing here.  Argentina barely got by Egypt and had to rally to do so plus they truly had some good fortune in that match.  Prior to that match they had to go to extra time to defeat Cape Verde.  Argentina has now gone 3 straight matches without a clean sheet.  Giving up goals could certainly be a big problem for Argentina here because Switzerland has been very stingy defensively.  They have been adept at frustrating opponents and they are off B2B clean sheets and this followed the Swiss having allowed only 1 goal each in their first 3 matches of the World Cup.  That being said, all signs point to a very tight match here Saturday and we love the value here with the hungry underdogs.  All the pressure is on the defending champions, Argentina, here in this one.  One final note here is we are aware of Manzambi being out for this match but he also missed the Swiss win over Colombia and plus he averaged playing 50 minutes per match in the first 4 matches.  In other words, his minutes have been spread over other players for more than half the World Cup in these five matches.  We will take Switzerland on the goal line (+0.5) Saturday night.   

ASA WNBA play on Golden State Valkyries -7 at Connecticut Sun, 7:30 pm ET -Let’s be up front about this from the get-go, Connecticut has covered 5 straight games and 7 of their last ten. They have a +/- of -6.9ppg on the season but in their last ten games their average margin of victory is substantially better at -0.2ppg. This stretch of success came with center Brittney Griner turning back the clock and playing really well for the Sun. Griner is out and will miss tonight’s game against the Valkyries. Golden State comes into this game on 6-game winning streak with 3 of those against the Dream, one over the NY Liberty. The Valkyries have 4 former UConn Husky players on their roster who will be excited about playing on their college stomping grounds, so they won’t look past this Connecticut team. GST has an average +/- of +7.6ppg in their last 5-games and continues to cover the spread on a consistent basis with a 8-2 ATS record in their last ten games. The Valkyries have the 2nd best defensive rating in the league which will be tough for the Sun to overcome with an offense that ranks 14th in the league. Golden State beat this same Sun team by 27-points earlier this season and while this game won’t be as big of a blowout, we expect the Valks to win by double digits.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -3 vs. Chicago Sky, 10 pm ET - The Mercury have been a big disappointment this season with an 8-14 start, but they look like they’ve figured some things out and are playing as well as anyone in the league currently. In fact, the Mercury has the best overall Net rating over the last 5-games played in the WNBA at +11.0. Phoenix is 4-1 SU in their last five games with three of those wins coming by 9+ points. Chicago had lost 5 straight games prior to beating Portland twice but have now lost 2 straight to the Aces. Chicago is 3-7 SU on the road this season with an average scoring differential of minus -6.1ppg. Phoenix beat this Chicago team earlier this season 91-83 on this same court with a massive FT advantage and a +10 rebound differential. The Sky are on a 6-game road losing streak which we are betting gets to 7 in a row after Tuesday.

2026 FIFA World Cup, Group Stage: #22592 ASA PLAY ON Argentina Goal Line -1.5 (+115) over Egypt, Tuesday at 12 pm et – Coming into this tournament it was known, of course, that Egypt has Marmoush and Salah.  However, Salah is getting quite old and besides he and Marmoush, this club really has the talent level of one of the weaker teams in the competition.  Yes, Egypt has made it this far and deserves credit for that but their only regulation win in their 4 matches was over New Zealand.  Also, they only got past Australia by virtue of prevailing on penalty kicks.  Now they face their biggest challenge yet and we feel they will prove to be no match for a very strong Argentina team.  This club just had that scare versus Cape Verde (who proved to be the underdog story of the tournament) but that will serve them well here as a wake-up call to make sure they are ready to dominate throughout a match when facing a foe they certainly are capable of dominating against.  Keep in mind, prior to the win in AET (added extra time) versus Cape Verde, Argentina's first 3 wins of this tournament were all by a multiple goal margin.  This one will be too!  Argentina on the goal line at -1.5 goals and a plus money return is a strong value option here Tuesday.

#908 ASA MLB PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (-110) over Colorado Rockies, Monday @ 10:10 ET - Great spot for a home rout win for the Dodgers after they lost 5-2 yesterday to the Padres.  Los Angeles has one of the best records in baseball while the Rockies have one of the worst records in the majors.  The Dodgers are 13-1 when entering a game off a loss!  We expect a big bounce back at home here.  The Rockies are 8-16 against left-handed pitchers this season while the Dodgers are 17-8 against southpaws.  Also, the Dodgers are 38-17 this season against teams that are currently sub-.500 on the season.  The Rockies are 15-29 on the road this season and 13-28 against teams with a winning record currently on the season.  As for the pitching match-up, Eric Lauer has been strong since he came to LA from Toronto and he is 3-0 with a 2.88 ERA in his 6 games (5 starts) since joining the Dodgers.  The Rockies Kyle Freeland has struggled again this season and not just because of Coors Field either.  Freeland has actually been worse on the road than at home this season.  The Colorado southpaw is 0-5 with an 8.31 ERA in his 8 games (7 starts) away from Denver.  Also these pitchers squared off in late May in Lauer's debut with LA and he allowed only 1 earned run while Freeland allowed 8 earned runs!  The Dodgers won 15-6 that day and we expect another dominating win here as LA responds off yesterday's loss.  44 of their 59 wins this season have been by a margin of 2+ runs!  42 of 54 Rockies losses this season have been by a multi-run margin.  So this one sets up well for a strong play with very little juice on the price and we can lay the run line of 1.5 runs with confidence here.  Lay it with the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the run line.  

ASA WNBA play on Seattle Storm -4 vs. Portland Fire, 8pm ET - We like the Storm to get a rare win tonight over the expansion Fire in this match up and predict a double-digit win by the home team. First off, the betting markets have reacted strangely with more money and tickets flowing in on the Fire, yet the line moved from the Storm favored by -3.5- points to minus -4.5 points. Our power ratings would have the Storm favored by -3.5 points on a neutral court, so this line is clearly off. Seattle has 3 less wins than the Fire on the season but have a better overall Net rating of -6.4 compared to -9.1 for the Fire. Seattle has been playing much better of late with a -0.2 Net rating in their last 5 games compared to the Fire’s -18.8 Net rating in that same stretch of games. The big difference in this game comes down to defense. Seattle has the 4th best FG% defense in the league allowing just 43.1%. They have the best 3PT% defense in the W allowing 30.5%. The Storm have been bad offensively this season, but they should be much better today against this Fire defense that is 14th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.090-points per possession. Seattle is 4-7 SU at home and recently lost to this Portland team in their building on June 17th. We also like the fact that Seattle just lost in Phoenix on July 2nd so they haven’t been off for a week as the Fire have been. Lay it with the host.

2026 FIFA World Cup, Round of 16: #225571 ASA PLAY ON France Goal Line -2 (+100) over Paraguay, Saturday at 5 pm et – At books like DraftKings, for example, you select the Spread/Total option and then you will see the Asian Handicap option.  That option currently has the goal line on France of -2 goals at even money.  Yes, if France wins by a margin of exactly 2 goals then this pick is a push rather than a win but we are indeed forecasting a blowout win for France here.  Since the tournament started (and we are now down to 16 clubs remaining) France has looked like the best team in the world.  They continue to flex their muscles here and just have too much firepower for this Paraguay side.  France has won all 4 of their matches by a multi-goal margin and each of their last 3 victories have been by a 3-goal margin.  Overall, they have won their 4 matches by a combined score of 13 to 2. Paraguay shocked Germany but again they only scored 1 goal in the match and they have tallied a total of only 3 goals in 4 matches.  They also lost to USA by a 4-1 count and now face an even tougher challenge than that here.  France on the goal line at -2 goals and not having to lay any juice is a strong value option here Saturday.   

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -7 at Washington Mystics, 7:30 pm ET - Atlanta is coming off 3-straight road losses on the West Coast, most recently a bad loss to Seattle by 15-points as an -8.5 point favorite. Prior to that they lost two tough games to Golden State which is a tough venue to win at against the scrappy Valkyries. Before this current stretch of road losses the Dream had won 6 of eight away from home. Washington is coming off a marathon game against Portland which resulted in 4 OT’s and a 124-123 win over the Fire. They had lost two straight before that game but are in a tough spot here with two starters potentially out with Georgia Amoore and Sonia Citron both questionable. Atlanta is 4-2 ATS this season when coming off a loss and they’ve won those games by an average of +12.7PPG. Washington is 4-4 ATS off a loss but they have a negative average point differential of -10.1PPG in those contests. The difference in Net rating between these two teams in drastic with Atlanta +5.5, the Mystics are minus -4.5. Atlanta makes a living off second chance points (1st), fast break points (2nd) and points in the paint (1st). We like the Dream to end this 3-game losing skid and win this game by double-digits.

FIFA World Cup #225541 ASA PLAY ON Austria Goal Line +1.5 (-120) over Spain, Thursday at 3 ET - We like the value here in going against a Spain side that is dealing with injuries up front.  Yes, Spain has yet to concede a goal in this tournament but they faced Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay.  That is definitely not a "who's who" of potent offensive attacks.  Now they face an Austria side led by manager Ralf Rangnick and they play an aggressive pressing system that does a great job of facilitating scoring opportunities.  Remember too that Spain has a 0-0 draw and a 1-0 win so far in this tournament so getting a goal and a half with an Austria side that possesses a dangerous attack is a solid value here.  This is particularly true with Spain dealing with injuries that are impacting their normally strong attack.  Spain has simply not looked like themselves in this tournament thus far and we anticipate Austria will be very competitive throughout this match and we expect this match to be decided by a 1-goal margin.  Austria has scored 3 goals in 2 of their 3 matches thus far and they will certainly challenge the backline of Spain here.  Spain is without Nico Williams plus Yeremy Pino and Victor Munoz could both be available yet kept on the bench for much of this match as both are still trying to fully recover from injuries.  That helps set this one up to be a tight final score.  We will take Austria on the goal line (+1.5) Thursday.   

#904 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers Run Line -1.5 (+120) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - The Brewers have won 8 of Misiorowski's last 10 starts and all 8 wins have been by a multi-run margin. Misiorowski has been nothing short of phenomenal during this stretch as he has allowed ZERO earned runs in 7 of the starts and in the other three he allowed just 1 earned run in two of them and 2 earned runs in the other! Complete and utter domination for the flame-throwing right-hander and he gives Milwaukee the big edge over Chase Burns and the Reds in this one.  The Cincinnati right-hander is coming off a tougher start at Pittsburgh as he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings.  Overall, Burns has been striking out plenty of guys and is having a solid season but he has been more hittable of late and that helped result in the tougher outing at Pittsburgh.  Burns has now allowed 24 hits in his last 21 and 1/3 innings.  To put that in perspective in terms of this match-up, Misiorowski has allowed nearly the same number of hits (26) in a whopping 66 and 1/3 innings over his last 10 starts.  It is clear to see which strikeout pitcher has been more dominant in terms of not being hittable.  The bullpen ERA difference is big between these clubs also as the Brewers rank 7th in the majors while the Reds rank 25th in the 30-team league.  In terms of laying the run line here, note the following statts.  Only 12 of Milwaukee's 53 wins this season came by a 1 run margin. Similarly, only 10 of the Reds 46 losses this season came by a 1-run margin. All signs point to a home blowout here as Misiorowski continues his dominating form while Burns makes it B2B tough road starts and he gets pounded by the Brewers lineup here. The Brewers are on a 35-15 run including 3 straight wins over the Reds (all by a multi-run margin) and they stay red hot here.  Overall the Reds are just 2-7 last 9 games and that includes going 0-6 against the Brewers!  Lay the 1.5 runs with Milwaukee in early afternoon action Thursday.  

#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON Miami Marlins Run Line -1.5 (-105) over Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - The Marlins have won the first two games of this 4-game series by a combined score of 24-10 and we look for their surge to continue Wednesday!  Miami just wrapped up a fantastic June in which they won 20 of 26 games.  This is definitely a case of two teams going opposite directions as the Rockies have won just 9 of 24 games since early June and they enter this game Wednesday evening on a 3-game losing streak.  Not only is this a case of hot versus not, we also have long-term numbers to support this play as well as a strong pitching edge and that includes the bullpen edge too.  First off, the Rockies are 14-39 when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season!  Colorado is 6-14 versus NL East teams this season while the Marlins are 14-3 against NL West teams this season.  The Marlins slugging percentage versus lefties is respectable and they rank 12th out of all 30 MLB teams in that category.  Thursday they face a struggling southpaw as Kyle Freeland has consistently been getting rocked this season.  He has been hit hard in 10 of his last 11 starts.  In fact, Freeland allowed 54 earned runs in 49 innings over those 10 outings!  The Marlins are so hot right now that we expect he will get pounded again here.  Also there is a big bullpen edge here with the Marlins ERA ranking 5th in the majors while the Rockies rank 28th out of 30 teams!  As for Marlins starter Max Meyer, he is 9-0 with a 2.60 ERA this season.  Yes, 9-0!  Also, Meyer went 4-0 in May while holding opponents to a .185 batting average and then he went 4-0 in June while compiling a 1.78 ERA!  As you can see, this game is a mismatch all the way around!  Lay the 1.5 runs with Miami in evening action Wednesday. 

ASA WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces -6.5 at Chicago Sky, 4 pm ET - Let’s not kid ourselves and get excited about the Sky’s two game winning streak as those two W’s came against the expansion Portland Fire. In fact, of the Sky’s 6 wins this season, 3 have been against Portland and one was versus Connecticut, two of the worst teams in the league. Chicago has gotten great play from center Kamilla Cardoso in recent games, but she’ll have a tough time here against the Aces front court led by Aj’a Wilson. Wilson is having another MVP caliber season, leading the league in scoring at 25.5ppg, she’s first in blocks per game at 1.9 and tied for 4th in rebounding. Las Vegas is 13-5 SU on the season with the 5th best net differential in the league at +5.0. They are 9-2 SU in their last eleven games with the losses coming in Dallas and at home to New York, two of the league’s better teams. Chicago is 3-6 SU at home this season and have an overall negative net differential on the season of -3.1. The Aces have won 5 straight games against the Sky and will make it 6 in a row today with this win coming by double-digits.

#906 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers Run Line -1.5 (-105) over Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - The Brewers lost yesterday's game 8-2 and Milwaukee is 3-0 the last 3 times they've entered a game off a loss in which they allowed 8 or more runs. We look for a big bounce back here as Woodruff takes the mound and he was fantastic in his first start back after returning from injury. Woodruff delivered 6 scoreless innings and allowed only 1 hit while striking out 10. The Cubs are going with Rolison as a starter here and they might try to let him work longer than a normal opener because Chicago does not have any true bulk-relief options truly available behind him. That sets this one up well for a home blowout as the Brewers bounce back off the loss. Lay the 1.5 runs with Milwaukee in early afternoon action Sunday.

#956 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers Run Line -1.5 (+125) over Chicago Cubs, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - We successfully faced Chicago yesterday and we do it again today! The Brewers won yesterday's game 6 to 2 and they outhit the Cubs 11 to 3 and this looks like another tough spot for the Cubs. They are again at a significant starting pitching disadvantage in this one. Milwaukee's Kyle Harrison has been nothing short of phenomenal this season and his numbers are even more impressive when you remove the one start that deserves an asterisk. Harrison had one rough outing when he faced the Athletics at a minor league ballpark in hitter-friendly elevation in Summerlin, NV west of Vegas. The fact is that Las Vegas Ballpark is a hitters paradise and Harrison has allowed a total of only 12 earned runs in his other 13 starts this season! Yes, an average of just 1 earned run per start as the southpaw has delivered complete and utter domination in the majority of his starts this season. He gives Milwaukee a huge edge over David Peterson. The southpaw was just acquired from the Mets as New York also fired their manager as a rebuild gets underway. Peterson is 3-6 with a 6.09 ERA this season and opponents are hitting just under .300 against him on the season. Concerning numbers to say the least and though a change of scenery might eventually do him some good we don't expect it to be an immediate cure. The fact is he has struggled in terms of current form for an extended stretch and so there have not been signs pointing to an overnight turnaround for him! We expect a blowout here and the numbers support that as well. Note that only 12 of Milwaukee's 50 wins this season have come by a 1 run margin. Similarly, only 9 of the Cubs 38 losses this season have come by a 1-run margin. All signs point to another home blowout here as Harrison continues his dominating form while Peterson's overall struggles continue and he gets pounded by the Brewers lineup here. The Brewers are on a 32-13 run including 5 straight wins and they stay red hot here. Lay the 1.5 runs with Milwaukee for a plus money return in early evening action Saturday.

#906 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers Run Line -1.5 (-125) over Chicago Cubs, Friday at 7:45 PM ET - The Brewers have won 7 of Misiorowski's last 9 starts and all 7 wins have been by a multi-run margin. Misiorowski has been nothing short of phenomenal during this stretch as he has allowed ZERO earned runs in 7 of the starts and in the other two he allowed just 1 earned run in one and 2 earned runs in the other! Complete and utter domination for the flame-throwing right-hander and he gives Milwaukee a huge edge over Colin Rea and the Cubs in this one. Chicago has been hot for an extended stretch now and they've won consistently for weeks in games that Rea does not start. It has been when he is on the mound that the Cubs have struggled for wins. Chicago is 1-7 in his last 8 starts. Rea did pitch better in his most recent start but that was at home. On the road this season his ERA is north of the 7.00 mark. In his two starts against the Brewers last season they hit .343 against him. Only 12 of Milwaukee's 49 wins this season came by a 1 run margin. Similarly, only 9 of the Cubs 37 losses this season came by a 1-run margin. All signs point to a home blowout here as Misiorowski gets right back into the win column here and continues his dominating form while Rea's road struggles resume and he gets pounded by the Brewers lineup here. The Brewers are on a 31-13 run including 4 straight wins and they stay red hot here. Lay the 1.5 runs with Milwaukee in early evening action Friday.

ASA WNBA play on Connecticut Sun +4.5 vs Washington Mystics, 7:30pm ET - The Sun are clearly one of the worst teams in the league with a 3-15 SU record and an average point differential of minus -8.4PPG but this is a favorable spot to back them as a home dog. Connecticut is coming off their best game of the season, a 92-63 win at home over the Chicago Sky. We expect that positive momentum to carry over to this game. Washington is coming off a heartbreaking 2-point loss to the Minnesota Lynx and may have a tough time getting back up for the Sun. Washington is the youngest team in the league and laying points on the road isn’t a regular thing as it’s happened just twice this season (1-1 ATS) with an average +/- of plus 1.1PPG. The line value on this game is obvious as these same two teams just met on this same court June 17th with the Sun being favored by -2.5-points. That’s a 6-point swing in the pointspread! Washington won that game by 7-points but the Sun had an unusually bad 3-point shooting night at 20%. A few more made 3’s and the Sun not only cover this game but get their 4th win of the season.

2026 FIFA World Cup, Group Stage: #225237 ASA PLAY ON Netherlands Goal Line -2.5 (-110) over Tunisia, Thursday at 7 pm et – This is a great spot for an absolute blowout.  Tunisia is proven to be one of the weakest clubs out of the 48 in the tournament and they are already eliminated while Netherlands is one of the respectable clubs in this World Cup that also is motivated for the victory here as they can capture this group.  They had a 2-2 draw with Japan and then rolled Sweden 5-1.  Conversely, Tunisia lost to Sweden 5-1 and Japan 4-0.  Clearly these two teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum in this group and we have no doubt in the Netherlands imposing their will here.  Tunisia just can not match up well at all here and Netherlands has their sights set on winning this group and they will not hold back and Tunisia again struggles to put up much resistance against a potent side.  We feel that asking for a win by 3 or more from the Netherlands, especially given the situational elements here, is not a big ask!  Netherlands on the goal line at -2.5 goals and around a pick'em price is a strong value option here Thursday evening.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -1.5 (-120) at Golden State Valkyries, 10pm ET - The better team in this matchup is clearly the Dream who have put together a contending roster this season. Golden State started the season well but have been vulnerable of late against the leagues better teams. Atlanta is 12-4 SU on the season with the second-best Net rating in the league (+8.9), behind the Minnesota Lynx. Golden State isn’t chop-liver ranking 5th at +5.2 but a soft schedule has a lot to do with that lofty rating. A great comparison here is the Valkyries record against the Aces and Lynx – two similar teams to the Dream – where the Valks are 0-5 SU this season and three of those games were at home. These two teams are similar defensively with Golden State 3rd in defensive Net rating, the Dream are 4th. The big separator between the two teams comes offensively where the Dream rank 1st, the Valkyries are 7th. GST has trouble shooting the basketball with the 12th worst eFG% in the league. In their last 5-games they’ve really struggled with an eFG% of 46.7% - last in the WNBA. Atlanta has found a rhythm on offense with 5 straight games of 90+ points, three of which were 102 or more. We will ride the hot team here in the Dream who have won 4 straight and 8 of their last ten.

FIFA World Cup #225218 ASA PLAY ON Czech Republic +0.5 (-110) over Mexico, Wednesday at 9 ET - We expect Czech Republic to come up big with an upset win here in this 'must win spot' and, in terms of line value, we like the fact that a draw would also be a win since the goal line is at +0.5 goals for them in this one.  The big key here is that we have line value because Mexico is off a fortunate 1-0 win over South Korea.  Mexico is now 2-0 in the tournament thus far and they can settle for a draw here and could rotate some players in this one.  They are already looking ahead to the next round.  Conversely, Czech Republic needs the win here. They lost to South Korea 2-1 and had a 1-1 draw with South Africa.  They are all in on this match as nothing less than a victory will help Czech Republic here.  They did score first in the loss to South Korea and they also led the match with South Africa 1-0 from the 6' mark until the 83' mark.  The point is that they have been on the cusp of victory in both matches yet ended up 0-1-1 and this is the perfect set up against an already content Mexico side.  This is particularly true when you consider that Mexico is off a truly fortunate win against South Korea.  This has led to strong line value here as Mexico would be fine with a draw here and a draw also cashes our ticket on this one.  We will take the Czech Republic on the goal line (+0.5) Wednesday.    

ASA WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces -2.5 vs NY Liberty, 10 pm ET - We trust the home team here to get a win by 3+ points in a game between the two of the best teams in the league (Minnesota is the other). We like the fact that both teams have some solid historical data as the rosters have been pretty consistent for these two perennial contenders. Las Vegas enjoys a solid home court advantage with a 41-12 SU record at home dating back to the start of the 2024 season. They win at home by an average of +6.9ppg. New York hasn’t fared as well as you might think as a road underdog with a 6-8-1 ATS record in that role since 2024 and a negative average differential of minus -1.7ppg. This will be the first meeting of the season between these two teams and will be the Commissioners Cup Final next week. The home team has dominated this series of late by winning 7 of the last eight with the home team covering six. The Net ratings for both teams are pretty similar with the Liberty having a slight edge, but the home court and the best player on the floor in Wilson tip the scales in favor of the Aces. Lay the short number.

2026 FIFA World Cup, Group Stage: #225394 ASA PLAY ON Argentina Goal Line -1 (-125) over Austria, Monday at 1 pm et – Both clubs enter this match off big wins with Argentina off a 3-nil victory and Austria a 3-1 triumph. However, most of the rankings entering this World Cup 2026 had Argentina ranked among the top 5 clubs in this competition while Austria is ranked in the middle of the pack - right around 24th out of 48 teams. That being said, it comes as no surprise that Argentina is a big favorite here in this early match for Monday action. The value is with the goal line as we can take the 1-goal option and only have to lay a price in the -125 range. Austria likes to play an aggressive and pressing style and that works fine against weaker competition but they get exposed against strong teams like this Argentina side. Argentina is so strong at the back and they also have the attacking talent, Lionel Messi included, to be able to give Austria a whole lot of trouble on the counterattack. This the type of match where Austria sure could use a star player like Christoph Baumgartner but he is out for the entire World Cup. Remember Argentina won the World Cup in 2022 and the reigning champs are among the frontrunners to do it again in 2026! Heading into this competition it was a lot of friendly action but the fact remains that Argentina has outscored the opposition 24 to 1 over their last 8 matches. Austria has been strong too but, unlike Argentina, they have been scored on in 4 of their last 7 matches and they really take a step up in level of competition here. Lay it with Argentina -1 goal in early Monday action.

2026 FIFA World Cup, Group Stage: #225386 ASA TOP PLAY ON Uruguay Goal Line -1 (-125) over Cape Verde, Sunday at 6 pm et – Perfect set-up here.  First off, about this line, we are going with the spread (aka goal line) option in this one as Uruguay is over -200 on the money line.  Yes, a 1-goal win would be a push but that is still better than a loss and we do look for the favorites to win this one by a multi-goal margin.  The set-up is perfect as Cape Verde is off their monumental scoreless draw with Spain which was an unreal result no one could have expected.  Uruguay, conversely, is off a disappointing 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia.  You have a very strong team that clearly underachieved in their opener (and they know it) and you have one of the weakest teams in the World Cup coming off a monumental draw against one of the top clubs in the world.  Set-ups just do not come much better than this and that is why this is a big top play for us on Sunday.  You can bet Uruguay has now paid close attention to what Cape Verde did against Spain.  There are no secrets now and Uruguay has talent edges all over the pitch and they will be able to attack the weaknesses of Cape Verde.  The big dogs here will get caught thinking they are better than they really are and we sense a big-time blowout in this one.  Lay it with Uruguay -1 goal in Sunday evening action for a Top Game. 

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -4.5 vs Indiana Fever, 1 pm ET - The revenge angle doesn’t work here as the Dream are the better team overall and we expect them to win and cover again at home against the Fever after beating them on Thursday 108-101 in Indiana. The refs aren’t going to change now and Reese will continue to get away with being a thug, and Caitlyn Clark will continue to get beat up as she does most nights. Atlanta shot 54% on Thursday and made 27/35 free throw attempts. Indiana hit 56% and was 23/29 from the charity stripe but lost the rebound battle by 5 and were minus -5 in turnovers. Atlanta has a better offensive efficiency rating of 1.063 points per possession compared to the Fever’s 1.054 and is better defensively to at .986PPP allowed versus 1.007PPP given up by Indiana. Atlanta has only played 6 home games this season and should draw a solid crowd for this home game featuring Clark vs. Reese. Atlanta was just favored by -1.5-points in Indiana which means this line should be significantly higher than it is. Back the Dream again here.

ASA WNBA play on Golden State Valkyries +3 vs Minnesota Lynx, 10 pm ET - This will be a hard one to swallow for some bettors as we are playing against the red-hot Lynx who have won 10 of their last eleven games. But the value in the line speaks for itself here as these same two teams recently met in Minnesota with the Lynx favored by the same number, minus -3.5-points. Golden State played the Lynx tough for 4 quarters with a 3-point decision in favor of the home team. The Lynx may have the best overall Net differential in the WNBA, but the Valkyries are 2nd. Golden State has very good home court support which has led to a 7-2 SU record on their home court. The second year Valkyries are 21-11 SU at home since their inception a year ago with an average point differential of +6.8ppg.

2026 FIFA World Cup, Group Stage: #225354 ASA PLAY ON Brazil Goal Line -2.5 (-110) over Haiti, Friday at 8:30 pm et – This is a great spot for an absolute blowout.  Haiti is one of the weakest clubs out of the 48 in the tournament while Brazil is one of the stronger clubs in this World Cup.  The key to the value here is Haiti actually played better than expected in their first game yet still came up short with a 1-0 loss to Scotland.  That was a very disappointing result despite playing well as that was Haiti's best chance at getting a win in Group C.  After facing Brazil they face another tough match against Morocco.  Also, Haiti is facing Brazil at the wrong time.  Brazil at least managed to take home a point with a draw against Morocco but of course that was not the desired result.  That being said, we have absolutely no doubt that Brazil is going to be aggressive here and lay a walloping on a Haiti team that they have such a huge talent edge over.  These clubs met in the Copa America in 2016 and Brazil was a similarly priced favorite and they won that match 7-1.  We feel that asking for a win by 3 or more by Brazil, especially given the situational elements here, is not a big ask!  Brazil on the goal line at -2.5 goals and around a pick'em price is a strong value option here Friday night.

#953 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers Run Line -1.5 (-105) over Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:15 PM ET - The Brewers have won 7 of Misiorowski's last 8 starts and all 7 wins have been by a multi-run margin. Misiorowski has been nothing short of phenomenal during this stretch as he has allowed ZERO earned runs in 7 of the starts and in the other one he allowed just 1 earned run! Complete and utter domination for the flame-throwing right-hander and here he can take advantage of a Braves team that has lost 6 of its last 7 including 3 in a row! Martin Perez has been solid for the Braves but prior to allowing 1 run against the Mets he did allow 10 earned runs in 20 and 2/3 innings over 4 preceding starts. Respectable but not nearly in the same league as what Misiorowski has been doing. Also, the Brewers are off a loss and they have gone 10-4 the last 14 times when entering a game off a loss. By the way, all 10 of those victories were by a margin of 2 or more runs! We expect this one will be as well. Lay the 1.5 runs with Milwaukee in early evening action Friday.

#968 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees Run Line -1.5 (-125) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - The Yankees had a big letdown yesterday but should bounce right back here. New York had been 8-1 last 9 games prior to yesterday's loss and they had scored an average of 7 runs during that hot streak. Also, the Yankees are 5-1 the last 6 times they have entered a game off a loss. Also, the Reds are on a horrible 6-13 slide including a poor 1-6 their last 7 road games. Cincinnati is likely to start Rhett Lowder here and he has a 5.84 ERA in his 6 road starts this season. It could be even worse too as Lowder has walked 19 while striking out 15 in those 6 starts! Not a good ratio of BB/K to say the least! The Yankees will likely start Cam Schlittler here and he is 7-3 with a 1.82 ERA this season and he is holding hitters to a .195 batting average this season. The Yankees also have a big bullpen edge (3.46 ERA vs 4.93 ERA) over the Reds in this one. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one and note that the Yankees 8 wins in their current 8-2 stretch have included 7 victories by a margin of at least 2 runs. Also, 17 of the Reds last 20 losses have been by 2+ runs.

ASA WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces -6.5 at Phoenix Mercury, 10pm ET - These two teams met in the Championship last season with the Aces sweeping the Mercury on their way to the title. When these two teams met earlier this season, the Mercury got a measure of revenge with an a$$-whoopin 99-66 blowout of the Aces. Which sets tonight’s game up perfectly, we get one of the premier teams in the league, motivated with a revenge angle – PLUS the Aces are coming off a loss in Dallas. Las Vegas has been solid in this role with a 20-12-1 ATS record since 2024 when coming off a loss. Prior to the upset in Dallas the Aces had won 6 straight games with four of those coming by double-digits. Phoenix has been a major disappointment this season with a 4-11 SU record and a minus -5.3 Net rating for the year. They rank 12th in field goal percentage defense allowing 46.4% to opponents and are worse yet defending the 3-point line, ranking 14th. The Aces can take advantage of the Mercury’s defense with the 2nd best FG% in the W at 48.2% and they are the 2nd best 3PT shooting team at 37%. Phoenix has struggled to make shots this season ranking 11th in team FG% and 12th in 3PT%. The Aces will also dominate the glass with the 5th best rebounding rate versus the Mercury’s 11th. Lay it with LV.

2026 FIFA World Cup, Group Stage: #225301 ASA PLAY ON Colombia Goal Line -1.5 (+115) over Uzbekistan, Wednesday at 10 pm et – Uzbekistan is in its first ever World Cup and they fit the definition of simply being happy to be here.  Colombia, on the other hand, is a much stronger program that also is fired up here after they disappointingly missed qualification for Qatar in the 2022 World Cup.  Colombia comes out with a fire lit under them to start this tournament off in hopes of a big win and Uzbekistan is likely to fall back on defense as they play a careful match with attention focused on defense.  Ultimately, Colombia makes them pay the price for this and they win this match by a multi-goal margin.  Uzbekistan just does not have the talent level to keep up in this one and we look for at least a 2-0 final here.  Colombia has scored an average of 2.5 goals in its last 10 matches, including friendlies.  Uzbekistan struggles to score when facing tougher competition.  Most sources have Uzbekistan down in the bottom 10 of this competition while Colombia ranks right around 10th out of the 48 clubs in the World Cup.  Colombia on the goal line at -1.5 goals and a plus money return is a strong value option here Wednesday. 

ASA WNBA play on Indiana Fever -6.5 vs Toronto Tempo, 7pm ET - The records of these two teams are relatively close with Toronto 7-7 SU, the Fever stand 8-5 SU but Indiana is the superior team. The Fever have an average plus/minus in games of +3.5PPG on the season compared to the Tempo’s -1.1PPG and Indiana has faced the tougher schedule. Toronto is 5-5 SU in their last 10 games, but the wins have come against a struggling Phoenix team, Chicago (2x), Seattle and Connecticut – the worst teams in the league. Against the upper tier teams similar to Indiana they have gotten blown out by 25 to Atlanta, 15 to New York and 28 by Minnesota. Indiana is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and also have a few cupcake wins in that stretch but they also have quality wins against the Dream and Valkyries. As a home favorite the Fever has an average margin of victory of +7.3PPG and they should have success exploiting a Tempo defense that is 14th in the league in FG% allowed at 47%. The Fever are at their best when Caitlyn Clark is playing well and she’s currently on a heater averaging over 25PPG, 6.7APG and 4.3RPG in her last 3-games. Lay it here with Indiana.

#952 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 (+100) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Phillies are off a 4-0 loss yesterday. They are 7-0 the last 7 times they have entered a game off a loss! Also, Philadelphia is a perfect 3-0 this season in Zack Wheeler's home starts and they are 7-2 in his 9 starts overall. Wheeler got a late start to this season but he has been fantastic since returning and is already 5-1 with a 2.22 ERA in his 9 starts this season. The Marlins Ryan Gusto is in his 2nd season and has appeared in 31 games (19 starts) at the MLB level and has an unimpressive 5.69 ERA. He is a right-hander and most of his work at the MLB level was last season. That said, it is important to note that he compiled a 1.91 WHIP against left-handed batters last season. Allowing an average of 2 baserunners per inning is always going to lead to trouble. The Phillies are loaded with strong left-handed bats and they are going to give Gusto a lot of problems in this one. The Marlins have been hot and are on a winning streak but they now face a tough Phillies pitcher while their own starter today is very likely to get roughed up. That being said, you can see why this is a mismatch. We are laying 1.5 runs with the Phillies run line in this one and note that the Marlins most recent loss was by just 1 run but that this followed 14 of 16 Miami defeats coming by a margin of at least 2 runs. Lay the -1.5 with Phillies

ASA WNBA play on Toronto Tempo +6.5 vs Atlanta Dream, 3pm ET - The expansion Tempo have been a big surprise this season with a 7-6 start to the year and have currently won 4 of their last six games, but are coming off a 1-point loss in Washington. Toronto has a positive Net differential of +1.0 fueled by the 6th best offensive Net rating in the league. Toronto is getting great production from vets Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey – Sykes is 3rd in the league in scoring.Atlanta is 8-4 SU on the season with a +6.2 Net rating for the year. They have had their struggles on the road though with a 2-3 ATS record as a road favorite with an average margin of victory in those games of +3.6ppg which is not enough to cover this spread. Even in their first season the Tempo have not been a home dog this season and are 4-2 SU overall at home on the year with a +5.5ppg scoring differential. Toronto has also responded well off a loss this season with a 4-1 record. Atlanta is coming off a home game against the Liberty and have two games on deck with the Fever (Caitlyn Clark – Angle Reese feud).

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -5 vs. NY Knicks, 8:30 pm ET - The Knicks lead this series 3-1 but have been outplayed by the Spurs for the majority of the series and we expect the young Spurs to rebound off that heartbreaking Game 3 loss in New York. San Antonio jumped out to an early lead in the last game and never looked back…until late the 4th Q after blowing a 29-point margin. The one thing you should notice about the Spurs is that they don’t seem shaken after losses. When they needed big wins in the series against OKC they found ways to win. San Antonio was the best team in the league when coming off a loss this season with a 21-6 SU record and an average margin of victory of +11.1PPG. SAS is 11-2 in their last 13 when playing at home and coming off a loss and all of those wins but one came by 9 or more points. If you expect the Spurs to win this game as we do then the following applies. In the last 72 NBA Finals games the team that wins outright has gone 66-3-2 ATS. New York will have a tough time duplicating a 15/32 shooting night from beyond the arc on the road against a Spurs that allowed 34.9% on the season – 8th lowest number in the league. This series is going back to New York and we predict a 12+ point win by the home team.

ASA WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces -2 vs Minnesota Lynx, 8pm ET - It’s rare that you get an opportunity to bet on the Aces at home with such a low spread, so we’ll take advantage today with a play on Las Vegas. The reason the line is as low as it is because the red-hot Lynx are in town. Minnesota is 10-2 on the season and has the best Net rating in the league at +15.1 and have done it without MVP candidate Napheesa Collier. Las Vegas finds themselves looking up at the Lynx in the standings and will be highly motivated for this home game. The Aces have won the league 3 of the last four seasons and sometimes need extra incentive to play at a peak level. Today’s the day to flex and show the rest of the WNBA they are the defending champs and the team to beat. LV is 41-16 SU at home since 2024 with an average margin of victory of +5.1PPG. Minnesota is coming off a home win over Dallas as a -4.5-point favorite. Interestingly enough, the Aces recently played in Dallas and were favored by -5.5-points. The line on today’s game suggests Minnesota is favored on a neutral court and we’re not buying it. Take the home team.

ASA WNBA play on Toronto Tempo +2.5 at Washington Mystics, 7:30 pm ET - The expansion Tempo have been a big surprise this season with a 7-5 start to the year and have currently won 4 of their last five games. Toronto has a positive Net differential of +1.5 fueled by the 4th best offensive Net rating in the league. Toronto is getting great production from vets Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey – Sykes is 3rd in the league in scoring. Washington is a young team with 11 of their 13 player roster being either rookies or 1-year players. The Mystics are 2-5 SU their last seven and 4-6 SU on the season with a negative differential of minus -5.0 in Net rating. We are not sure Washington should be favored in this game and have them as a pick’em at best. Back Toronto here.

2026 FIFA World Cup, Group Stage: #225305 ASA PLAY ON Czechia Goal Line Pick'em (+102) over South Korea, Thursday at 10 pm et – We love the value with Czechia here on the goal line and they enter this one on a lengthy undefeated run.  With this goal line at a pick'em that means even if this match ends in a draw we would still avoid a loss and get a push with this selection.  We do, of course, expect Czechia to handle business here and get the win but just want to mention the added value of the pick'em on a goal line selection.  Czechia is undefeated in the last 6 matches and has scored an average of 3 goals per match in their last 5 matches.  They are responding well to veteran manager Miroslav Koubek who took over in December.  While South Korea is certainly a quality program that will also try to utilize their speed to have an edge in the transition game, the size and strength of the Czechia players is going to present a challenge to South Korea.  This significant size edge makes Czechia very dangerous on crosses and also on set-pieces as they utilize that advantage in front of goal.  South Korea had a couple of tune-up winners recently but this followed back to back losses in their March international friendly action and they were shutout in each of those two losses.  High quality team in South Korea but we love the momentum this Czechia team has on their side since the managerial change.  They had to fight hard to qualify for the World Cup and all those tight wins serve them well here as they carry the momentum right into this World Cup action.  Czechia on the goal line at a pick'em price is a value option here Thursday.   

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -4 vs. NY Liberty, 7:30 pm ET - The Liberty have won 5 straight games, but the competition wasn’t great in most of those games with wins against Connecticut, two against Phoenix and one against the expansion Tempo and one OK win versus Indiana. I’m not about to say the Liberty “are back” and will fade them on the road here in Atlanta. The Dream are 8-3 SU on the season and have the second-best average scoring differential in the league at +6.5PPG. They have been especially good at home with a 4-1 record (only loss to the Aces) and an average +/- of plus +13.2PPG – best in the league. The Liberty have been the perennial power in the East, so they typically get everyone’s best shot night in and night out. Atlanta will be up for this game and negate one big advantage the Liberty typically has in games which is rebounding. The Dream are the #1 rebounding team in the league; the Liberty are 3rd. Lay it here with Atlanta.

#957 ASA MLB TOP PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (-100) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday @ 6:40 ET - Great spot for a road rout win for the Dodgers after they blew a 6-1 lead in yesterday's 9-8 loss to the Pirates.  Los Angeles has one of the best records in baseball while the Pirates, prior to yesterday's comeback win, had continued to be on a fade.  Not only had Pittsburgh lost 4 straight games prior to the victory yesterday, they were on an 18-22 run long-term.  Also, the Dodgers have been fantastic when off a loss and are a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times they have entered a game off a defeat!  Watch them respond big here after blowing yesterday's game.  Solid pitching edge here as the Dodgers are expected to have southpaw Justin Wrobleski on the mound here and he is 7-2 with a 2.62 ERA this season!  Pittsburgh is 5-12 this season versus left-handed starters and we expect them to struggle with Wrobleski.  The Pirates are likely starting Mitch Keller here and he has been rocked in 4 of his last 5 starts.  In those 5 outings he has allowed 24 earned runs in 26 innings and he is facing a Dodgers team that has scored 8.8 runs per game in their last 4 games!   Los Angeles is on a 19-7 run over the last 26 games!  35 of their 43 wins this season have been by a margin of 2+ runs!  26 of 33 Pirates losses this season have been by a multi-run margin.  So this one sets up well for a Top Play with no juice on the price and we can lay the run line of 1.5 runs with confidence here.  Lay it!  Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-100) for a Top Game Thursday in early evening action.

ASA WNBA play on Portland Fire +7.5 (-105) at LA Sparks, 7pm ET - This is a hefty price to lay with a Sparks team that is the worst defensive team in the league. The Sparks have a defensive Net rating of 112.8 which ranks 15th out of 15 teams. They have the 14th worst FG% defense, rank 9th in 3PT% D and give up 93PPG – most in the W. Portland should be able to take advantage of that defense with an offense that is 9th in Net rating, 6th in team FG% at 45.5% and 5th in 3PT%. At the end of the day this line is too high. L.A. was favored by -7.5 points twice this season against Toronto and failed to cover either of those games. Portland has been a sizeable underdog in many games this season, but they came against some of the league’s best teams (Liberty, Fever, Valkyries). The Sparks don’t fall into the category as one of the league’s best teams. Los Angeles is just 3-5 ATS their last eight as a home chalk. Grab the points with the expansion Fire.

ASA WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces -2.5 vs Golden State Valkyries, 3pm ET - We just played against this Valkyries team the other night in Minnesota and will look to fade them again here in Las Vegas. Don’t be fooled by the Aced 6-3 overall record and a net rating of +4.6 as this is one of the very best teams in the league again this season. Las Vegas has the best player in the league in A’ja Wilson who has averaged 21.4PPG, 9.3RPG and 2.3APG for her career and has won 4 MVP’s. Golden State has been a big surprise this season with a 6-4 record overall and a solid Net rating of +7.5 but we are seeing a regression in that number after a hot start to the season. These two teams met earlier this season in Golden State and the Aces were favored by -1.5-points and won 91-81. Las Vegas pretty much dominated most key statistical categories in that game and has now won 4 straight in the series. Las Vegas is 0-2 at home this season and will be anxious and excited to be back in their own building for a rare home game. The Aces have one of the best home courts in the WNBA with a 39-16 SU record dating back to 2024 with an average margin of victory of +5.0PPG. Las Vegas will potentially have to play without Jewell Loyd and Chennedy Carter who are both game time decisions but that shouldn’t be a problem as it allows them to play a bigger lineup against a Valkyries team that has a tough time rebounding to begin with. Lay it here with the Aces.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -6 vs. NY Knicks, 8:30 pm ET - The Spurs outplayed the Knicks for a majority of Game 1, then Brunson took over in the 4th Q for a short period of time and the Knicks pulled away for good. Coincidentally, the Knicks run came with Wemby off the floor. The Spurs (Wemby) didn’t play well offensively in the opener, and we expect a much better performance on that end of the court in Game 2. San Antonio shot just 36% overall and made 11/43 3-pointers or 26% from deep. The Spurs have one of the best offensive efficiency ratings in the playoffs and that factors in their series against the best defense in the NBA in OKC. The Knicks defense deserves some credit, but their season long numbers suggest they aren’t as good as they showed in Game 1. The Knicks didn’t put up great offensive numbers on that end of the court which is understandable considering the Spurs had the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating during the regular season and 2nd best in the playoffs. San Antonio was the best team in the league when coming off a loss this season with a 21-6 SU record and an average margin of victory of +11.1PPG. SAS is 11-1 in their last 12 when playing at home and coming off a loss and all of those wins but one came by 9 or more points. We will call for a blowout here.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -2.5 vs Golden State Valkyries, 9pm ET - The Lynx may have hit the jackpot with rookie Olivia Miles who is averaging 15.8PPG, 6.3 assists per game and 5 rebounds p/game. She is only going to get better when MVP candidate Napheesa Collier returns. Even without Collier the Lynx have gotten off to a 7-2 SU start and current have the best Net differential in the league at +13.8. Minnesota is 2-2 SU on their home court this season but do have an average points differential of plus +8.8PPG. When you talk about home court advantage in the WNBA the four cities that have the most support currently are Minnesota, New York, Las Vegas and Indiana. The Lynx are 45-11 SU at home dating back to the start of 2024 with an average +/- of +9.7PPG. Golden State has been a great story the past two years and are way beyond where they anticipated being in such a short period of time. The Valkyries are 6-3 SU this season with the 2nd best Net rating in the W at +8.9. Golden State’s schedule though isn’t that impressive with only one signature win at home over Indiana. The win in New York earlier this season isn’t nearly as impressive as the Liberty were missing several starters. The one team they’ve faced this year that is on the same level as the Lynx would be the Aces, who the Valkyries lost to at home by 10-points. Golden State has the worst FG% in the league at 40.9% and they’ll have a tough time making shots against a Lynx team with the best FG% D in the WNBA at 38% allowed. It’s not often you get a low line like tonight with the Lynx at home.

#957 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET - It was a tight win last night for LA but they got the job done for us and we are coming right back with them here in a fantastic run line situation. Entering Tuesday the Dodgers were coming off a 4-1 loss to the Dbacks to open up this series Monday night. Prior to the loss the Dodgers were on a 14-3 run their last 17 games. Los Angeles is now on a 15-4 run after last night's 6-5 win! We will get to the massive starting pitching edge in Wednesday's game further below. First off let's talk about relief pitching as well as overall hitting for these clubs. The Diamondbacks bullpen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack at 15th in the majors but the Dodgers bullpen ERA is ranked 6th in the majors. The Dodgers batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage (ALL 3!) each rank #1 in the majors while the Diamondbacks rank in the middle of the pack in batting average and slugging percentage and rank a lowly 25th in on base percentage! Now onto the huge starting pitching edge here. Shohei Ohtani has been unreal this season with a 5-2 record and 0.82 ERA and he is holding opponents to a paltry .147 batting average! Also, when he last pitched at Arizona he shut them out in a solid 6-inning effort in September. As for the Diamondbacks Zac Gallen, he had a solid April but is coming off a May in which he compiled a 7.04 ERA and allowed 8 homers in his last 5 starts. Also, he faced the Dodgers in March and allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings. More struggles here as his tough run continues and Gallen is getting hit at a .290 clip this season! Given all of the above, this is a bargain price on the Dodgers run line. 32 of the 39 LA wins (82%) this season have been by a multi-run margin! We will not hesitate to get involved here and we will lay the 1.5 runs with confidence in this one.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks +5 at San Antonio Spurs Game 1 – 8:30 pm ET - Prior to the start of the playoffs, I felt the Spurs could come out of the West. I didn’t think the Knicks would come out of the East. When New York decided to go on the current postseason heater they are on I told a friend in the industry, if the Spurs come out of the Western Conference, the Knicks are the only team in the league that can beat them. I will give the Knicks a slight lean to win it all this year as I feel they matchup favorably with the Spurs. New York played a much softer schedule to get here but we can’t overlook their +21.6 Net rating in the playoffs and this 11-game winning streak. NY is 12-2 in the playoffs with an average +/- of plus +19.4PPG. They won’t be intimidated by the venue with a 6-game winning streak on the road. We could see a small letdown for the young Spurs in this opener as they are coming off a monumental series win against the defending Champs in OKC. San Antonio’s young guards have been great and we expect huge careers from Castle and Harper, but both have been prone to turnovers in the postseason. San Antonio averaged 16.4 TO’s versus the Thunder in the WC Finals. NY won 2/3 regular season meetings with the Spurs and the lone loss in San Antonio was by 2-points. This is going to be a tight first game so let’s take whatever points are available with the Knicks.

ASA WNBA play on Toronto Tempo +10 at NY Liberty, 8pm ET - Will there be any New York fans at this game with the Knicks playing in San Antonio for Game 1 of the NBA Finals? This line is generous according to our model so we’ll back the dog here and grab the points with the Tempo. Toronto and New York have identical 5-4 SU records and a similar Net rating with the Liberty at +3.7, the Tempo are +1.1. Certainly not a drastic difference that the spread in this game would indicate. The expansion Tempo have a few vets on this team in Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey, both of whom are averaging over 18.7PPG. The Liberty have not looked like the title contender we expect them to be as Sabrina Ionescu works her way back into the rotation coming off an injury. NY has wins over Phoenix, Portland, Washington and Connecticut – four teams that are worse than this Tempo team and two of those W’s were by less than today’s spread. Grab the points.

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -3 at Phoenix Mercury, 10 pm ET - The Mercury are much worse than experts were anticipating this season and today’s odds reflect that. What we are referring to is the fact that these same two teams met on May 12th, in this building and the Mercury were favored by -5.5 points. The other side of that is the fact that Minnesota is much without Collier than anyone thought heading into the early part of this season. The Lynx have the best Net rating in the league at +10.3 and a 6-2 record with an average scoring differential of +9.3PPG. What’s even more impressive is their perfect 4-0 road record and an average plus/minus away from home of +9.8PPG. Phoenix is a disappointing 2-7 SU on the season with the 9th worst Net rating at -1.7. The Mercury’s current losing streak stands at 5 in a row with four of those coming by 7 or more points. Phoenix is just 1-3 SU at home with their lone win coming against Chicago, a team that’s worse than them. Even though this line has been adjusted from the first meeting we will still lay the points with the vastly superior Lynx team.

ASA WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces -1.5 at Golden State Valkyries, 3:30 pm ET - The Aces have been the best team in the W for several years now with perennial MVP A’ja Wilson and will be a contender again by season’s end. Currently though they trail this Valkyries team in the standings and are coming off 2 straight losses which should have them motivated for today’s game. Golden State has the best Net rating in the league and sit 5-2 on the year yet are small underdogs in this game which seems a bit odd, especially considering they were just a -1.5 point favorite against Indiana. In last season’s 4-game series between these two teams the Aces won 3 of four outright including a split on this court. Las Vegas is 23-11 SU since 2024 when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +5.5PPG in that scenario. The Aces have also have the 2nd best road record in the league since 2024 at 34-20 SU +3.0PPG. Golden State got the benefit of some late calls against the Fever the other night and off that big win may have a letdown here. Take the motivated Aces in this one.

#927 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-105) over Houston Astros, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - The Astros got the win yesterday and we look for the Brewers to bounce right back.  Milwaukee is 6-2 the last 8 times they have entered a game off a loss.  The Brewers, prior to yesterday's defeat, were on a fantastic 21-7 run in their last 28 games.  The Astros were on a 5-13 run in home games prior to yesterday's big 9-2 win.  This Houston team has 33 losses on the season and 30 of them (91%!) have been by at least a 2-run margin.  That being said, we love the value here with the Brewers available at a very small price here if we lay the 1.5 runs.  Milwaukee is expected to start Jacob Misiorowski here and he is 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA this season and opponents are hitting just .152 against him.  He has been unbelievable here in the month of May and is 4-0 with a 0.29 ERA and opponents hitting just .105 against him this month!  The Astros are expected to start Tatsuya Imai and he is off of a great start as he went 6 scoreless innings (though he walked 4 while striking out just 2).  Though that start was impressive for the Houston hurler, this followed Imai going winless with an 8.31 ERA in his first 5 starts this season as he allowed 16 earned runs in 17 and 1/3 innings!  In terms of bullpen ERA, the Astros are dead last with a 5.22 ERA on the season to rank 30th of 30 while the Brewers rank 7th with a 3.28 ERA.  The Brewers roll to a road rout here.  Lay the 1.5 runs Sunday afternoon with Milwaukee   

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:15pm ET - We will back the more experienced Thunder team on their home court over the Spurs and lay the points with OKC. This number is low according to our models as the Thunder should be favored by -6 points with adjustments over the past two weeks after the Thunder opened -7.5-points in G1 and G2. After getting upset in Game 1 the Thunder responded with a pair of home wins by 9 and 13-points. The home team has also won 4 of the six games in this series and those wins came by 9 or more points. OKC is 24-17 ATS the past two seasons when coming off a loss with an impressive +11.2PPG average winning margin. Overall home teams have historically done well in Game 7’s overall in the playoffs, winning outright roughly 74% of the time. In the Conference Finals that winning percentage dips to 63% but is enough to put us on the defending Champs in their own building.

ASA WNBA play on Golden State Valkyries -1.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 10pm ET - This play sets up really well and we expect a double-digit win by the home team. These same two teams just met last week in Indiana with the Fever winning a close game 90-82 as a -5.5-point favorite. There were some chippy moments in the game involving Caitlyn Clark. Because Clark is the main attraction of the WNBA the Fever tend to get everyone’s best efforts and the Valkyries at home – playing with revenge – will be focused. The last time Clark was on this court she struggled shooting with an 0’fer-seven effort from 3 and a 3/14 overall game. That was largely due to a GST defense that was one of the best in the league a year ago and is #1 in defensive Net rating again this season. In fact, the Valkyries have the best overall Net rating in the W at +11.3, the Fever are next at +8.4. Last season the expansion Valks were 14-9 SU at home with an average margin of victory of +5.9PPG. The Fever were 13-14 on the road a year ago with a negative average scoring differential of minus -2.1PPG. We like Golden State to win this one by a comfortable margin.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder +3.5 at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30pm ET - The experience of the Thunder after winning a Championship a year ago will shine through in the biggest game of the season tonight in San Antonio. The Thunder were roasted on this court in Game 4, then made adjustments for Game 5 and beat the Spurs handily. San Antonio hasn’t shot it well in this series at 42.5% overall but have made it a series by crashing the offensive boards. The Thunder were outrebounded by -21 total rebounds in the first two games, but they countered by playing Hartenstein more and the rebounding has evened out in the last 3-games with OKC being +6 combined. Wemby looked like the playoffs were taking a toll on him last game as his minutes are up drastically compared to the regular season numbers and the Thunder are continually beating on him to wear him down. The Spurs are 37-11 SU at home this season, but the Thunder are 35-11 SU on the road. We expect a very tight game and the veteran leadership for OKC will shine through in the end.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs +5.5 at OKC Thunder, 8:30 pm ET - We won’t take the oddsmakers ‘bait’ with the soft line on the Thunder tonight in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. OKC was favored by -7.5-points at home in the first two games of this series, is coming off a loss and now only favored by -5.5 (and it is as low as -4.5 in some shops) and the line came down from the opening number. In fact, two very sharp Books were carrying -4.5 well before the public books started moving their numbers. The Spurs defense may have figured out a way to slow the Thunders offense with their drop coverage. After an insanely good shooting night in Game 3 by the Thunder bench, the numbers dropped significantly in G4 with OKC hitting just 33% overall and 18% from deep. Chet Holmgren continues to be a ‘no show’ and the reserves couldn’t make up the difference for J-Williams and Mitchell both being out. San Antonio didn’t shoot great in Game 4 but still won 21-points. The Spurs hit just 39% overall and 27% from beyond the arc. We will grab the points with San Antonio tonight and expect a 1 field goal game either way.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -2.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 8pm ET - In Game 1 it was evident the Cavs were going to give the Knicks all they could handle in this series when they built a 22-point lead in the 4th quarter. The Knicks made a historical rally, and it looks like that result has broken the Cavaliers. New York has outscored the Cavs by 40 points in the 3-game series and have an overall Net rating of +13.8 in that stretch of games. NY is shooting the lights out against the Cavs with an eFG% of 61.1%. In comparison the Cavs have a negative Net rating of -13.6 in this series with an eFG% of 50.2%. The Knicks have won 10 consecutive playoff games by an average of 22.5 points. The schedule and fatigue look like it’s caught up to the Cavs who have played every other day since the end of April and coming off two 7-games series is starting to add up. Cleveland has no answer defensively for Brunson and the rest of the Knicks. New York moves on to the Final.

#926 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+130) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 7:07 PM ET - The Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero did leave yesterday's game early after being hit by a pitch. However, X-rays were negative and there is a strong probability he will play today. Even if he does not, we still like Toronto plenty in this spot. While the Blue Jays were at home yesterday the Marlins were also at home way down in Miami and so they then had to travel all the way up to Canada after the game. From a situational perspective this match-up favors Toronto and this is particularly true coming off a loss. Additionally the Blue Jays have a huge pitching edge here. Janson Junk is expected to get the start for the Marlins here and he has been getting hit hard of late. Junk has allowed 19 earned runs on 25 hits over 16 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. This is in stark contrast to Trey Yesavage who continues to dominate. He only had 3 starts in the regular season last year but pitched so well that he then was afforded the opportunity to pitch in the post-season where he also pitched very well over 6 appearances (5 starts). Yesavage has carried his fantastic form right into the new season as he is 2-1 in his 5 starts this season with a minuscule 1.07 ERA as his dominance continues. In his 3 career regular season starts at home he has yet to allow a single earned run! We are laying the 1.5 runs here to avoid the big juice price on the Blue Jays. We need Toronto to win by 2 or more runs to cash this ticket but that does appear likely given this is a mismatch plus based on the results so far this season. 80% of the Blue Jays 25 wins this season have been by 2+ runs! Also, 24 of Miami's 29 losses (83%) have been by a multi-run margin! The Marlins just swept the Mets but Miami entered that series on a 6-12 run. The Blue Jays are off a home loss yesterday but had won 9 of their last 13 home games prior to that defeat. Lay the 1.5 runs Monday for a sizable plus money return with Toronto

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -2.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:15 pm ET - We will come back with the Spurs in Game 4, coming off a home loss and now down 1-2 in the series. Historically favorites in the playoffs have done well in this situation and we still contend the Spurs can win this series. OKC made the adjustments in Game 3 after splitting 1 and 2 at home. We expect a regression in their shooting numbers though as they hit 48% overall and 45% from beyond the arc. We doubt they will get 5/6 3-pointers from Jaylin Williams again nor do we think bench players Joe, Williams and Caruso can hit another 71% from deep. Let’s not forget the Spurs had the 8th best 3PT% defense in the regular season and has the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the postseason, ahead of the Thunder. OKC has been highly efficient in the playoffs at 1.251-points per possession but the Spurs have a oEFF rating of 1.171PPP which is 3rd best. The Spurs are 19-6 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of +10.9PPG and should bounce back here. With Fox and Harper both slated to play again we like San Antonio to even this series at 2-2 after tonight.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 vs. NY Knicks, 8pm ET - The Knicks are going to win this series and advance, but the Cavs won’t go quietly and will win this home game tonight. Cleveland has been great at home in the playoffs, going 6-1 SU with an average scoring differential of +5.0 and the 2nd best home court eFG% at 58%. New York has just 1 road loss in these playoffs, but they also faced a lower tier Atlanta team and swept a beat up 76ers team. Cleveland has looked much better against the Knicks than we anticipated, and home court has absolutely meant something when these two teams have squared off with a 5-0 SU record this season. The Cavs also fall into a solid 61% playoff system that supports teams down 0-2 in the series. Home favorites that are down 0-2 SU in the conference Finals have covered 9 of the last 13 in that situation. The Cavs have also bounce back well when coming off a loss with a 40-18 SU record the past two seasons and an average scoring differential of +6.3PPG in that scenario. Going into this series, the Knicks offensive ratings were off the charts and the Cavs defense has played well holding them to a Net rating of 113 which is well below their ONR heading into this series. The Knicks defense has played well but the Cavs (eFG% vs. Knicks 46.1%) should shoot better in their own building where they had the 7th best eFG% during the regular season at 56%. Our math model projects the Cavs to win this game by margin and we concur.

#928 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 (+120) over Cleveland Guardians, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - The Phillies are off a 1-0 loss yesterday.  They are 3-0 the last 3 times they have entered a game off a loss by a margin of 2 or less runs.  Also, Philadelphia is a perfect 5-0 this season in Zack Wheeler's starts.  Wheeler got a late start to this season but he has been fantastic and is already 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his 5 starts this season.  The Guardians Slade Cecconi, on the other hand, is 12-19 with a 5.09 ERA in his career and he has been struggling this season and, in particular, on the road.  In Cecconi's 7 road starts this season he has a 5.79 ERA and opponents are hitting nearly .300 against him.  He is coming off a good start but this was after he allowed 37 hits in 25 innings spanning his 5 prior starts.  The Guardians have been hot and are on a winning streak but they have not been hitting all that well of late.  Couple that with the fact they now face a tough Phillies pitcher while their own starter today is very likely to get roughed up, and you can see why this is a mismatch.  We are laying 1.5 runs with the Phillies run line in this one and note that the Guardians last 6 road losses have all been by a margin of at least 2 runs. This one will make it 7 in a row! 

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -1.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30pm ET - This bet is largely predicated on DeAaron Fox being able to play tonight. He warmed up prior to the last game but was then a late scratch before tipoff. From everything we’ve seen Dylan Harper Jr is much less likely to play. With Fox on the court we are very comfortable backing the Spurs at home in Game 3. This is a match up advantage for the Spurs who are 5-2 SU against the Thunder this season. In Game 1 this young Spurs team stayed poised and won a double OT game in OKC – one of the toughest places to play in the NBA. Even in Game 2 when Harper was injured after 25 minutes, the Spurs still played extremely well with the game essentially getting decided in the 4th quarter. In G2 the Thunder were +7 on free throw makes and won the turnover battle 9 to 21 which was the difference. Now back at home we like the Spurs to take care of the basketball and win the rebound battle (+21 in the first game, +4 in G1). Both teams have fantastic home/road records with the Thunder 34-10 SU away, San Antonio is 36-10 SU in their own building. Two factors are suggesting Fox will be in the lineup tonight – one the line has ticked up from -1.5 to -2 suggesting he’s available. Secondly, we are seeing his player prop lines in the market which also signal his return. Even if he’s not 100% he can run the offense and cut down on Castles turnovers which would have a huge impact on this outcome. At this point in time, we feel the Spurs are the better team – and if healthy will come out of the Western Conference. Lay it with the home team who are 19-5 SU when coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of +11.1PPG.

#56 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Colorado Avalanche Puck Line -1.5 goals (+135) over Vegas Golden Knights, Friday at 8 PM ET - Vegas is a fantastic hockey club that has responded well to the very late season coaching change to John Tortorella.  Give the Golden Knights credit too for coming up big with the Game 1 upset to start this series on Wednesday.  However, the puck certainly bounced the way of Vegas in that one and we are expecting a huge response here from the best team in the NHL, the Colorado Avalanche.  No team had a better regular season (121 points) than the Avalanche and the Avs were also 8-1 in this post-season prior to that Game 1 loss to the Knights.  Colorado outshot Vegas 38 to 28 in the Game 1 loss and the couple of 3rd period goals that the Avalanche got after being down 3-0 certainly is going to be on the mind of Vegas goalie Carter Hart entering this one.  The Avs nearly completed the comeback.  Hart has been fantastic in goal overall but let's not forget he had allowed 4 goals in 3 of his last 6 road playoff games prior to that 4-2 win Wednesday.  Also, note that the Avalanche had scored at least 4 goals in 6 of their last 7 games prior to the 4-2 loss in Game 1  Certainly rust was a bit of a factor as the Avs had a week off since topping the Wild in 5 games in the 2nd round.  That rust is gone now for Game 2 and the Avs have some momentum on their side too after the last two non-empty net goals that were scored Wednesday both belonged to the Avalanche.  Look for them to absolutely blitz Vegas from the drop of the puck here in Game 2 as let's not forget that the Avs entered this series 31-9-6 in home games this season.  The most recent Avalanche win was in OT but this followed 5 straight playoff wins by a multi-goal margin and their average margin of victory in those was 3 goals.  Another big margin win is lined up here for the angry Avs in Game 2 Friday night!  Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Colorado for a plus money return in this one is the high value play here.  

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -5.5 vs. Dallas Wings, 7:30pm ET - The value in the number is the main reason for this wager as this line is light by a few points in the Dreams favor. Atlanta played in Dallas earlier this season and was favored by -1.5 on the road. The Dream won that game 77-72 despite a poor shooting night. Atlanta is the 2nd best defensive team in the W with a Net rating of 99.2. They held the Wings to 15% 3PT shooting in the first meeting. In comparison the Wings are 11th in defensive Net rating. Granted, Dallas has an advantage offensively, but as they say, defense wins Championships. Atlanta should rebound here after a disappointing home loss to the Aces on May 17th 84-85. The Dream were down big in that game before rallying to make it close late. Atlanta should have Rhyne Howard back in the lineup for this game as she did practice on Thursday. Dallas is coming off a win in Chicago on Wednesday with Jessica Shepard leading the way with a triple-double. Atlanta’s two biggest advantages here are rebounding and 3PT% defense. The Dream are the best rebounding team and 1st in 3PT% - the Wings rely heavily on their 3PT shooting and don’t rebound well or score many 2nd chance points. Dallas is 5-20 SU their last 25 road games. Lay it here with Atlanta.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -6.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8pm ET - Rest = rust! Saying the Knicks started slow in Game 1 would be the understatement of all time. It took New York 3.5 quarters to get going and pull a miraculous come from behind win in OT over the Cavs and we feel the lingering emotional effects for Cleveland will impact tonight’s game. New York exploited James Harden defensively late in that game with Jalen Brunson taking over in the 4th quarter. The Knicks got off to an unexpected slow starting in G1 and looked tentative offensively. By the end of the game the Knicks had 60 points in the paint compared to the Cavs 38 and had a +9-rebounding advantage. Four of the five Cavaliers starters were minus in +/- for the game. New York has won 8 straight games and covered the spread in 7 of eight. At home they’ve been nearly unbeatable with 4 straight wins and two of those came by 29 and 39-points. New York was one of the best teams in the NBA at home this season overall at 35-11 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.3PPG. So far in these playoffs they have the best overall Net rating of +18.9 as they are getting it done on both ends of the court. Cleveland comes into this game with an overall Net rating in the playoffs of +0.2 Cleveland is 2-6 SU on the road in this postseason and 5 of those six losses came by double-digits. The Cavs were 27-22 SU on the road this season overall with an average plus/minus of +2.3PPG. The home team won all 4 meetings between these two teams this season and the Knicks get it done by double-digits in Game 2.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:36pm ET - I was very afraid of Game 1 in this series as the one lingering outlier that favored the Spurs in that opener was simply match ups. Sometimes whether it be football, basketball, baseball or whatever, one team has an advantage over the other because the team has been constructed specifically to beat the other team. That’s what we’re seeing with this young Spurs team against OKC who they’ve now beaten 5 of six times this season. OKC relies on drives to the basket (#1 in the NBA) along with turnovers and transition efficiency. The problem is this: Wemby is on the back line of the defense and owns the paint. Secondly, the Spurs don’t turn the ball over and don’t allow fast break points (rank top 5 in all of those defensive categories). With all that said we have to make a small wager on the Thunder to bounce back here off that loss and get a home win to even this series. The Thunder are 33-7 SU their last 40 games when coming off a loss (dating back to last season) with an average margin of victory of +11.1PPG. I do believe the Spurs will win this series now but this is the one game I like OKC to get a big win after the Spurs starters saw extended minutes in Game 1 and may punt this game late if it gets out of hand.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -7 vs. Toronto Tempo, 10 pm ET - This looks like a big number to cover, but in reality it’s not when you do an early season line comparison for each teams games played to date. Case in point, the expansion Tempo were just +7.5 points in two games against the LA Sparks. LA isn’t nearly as good as this Mercury team in our power rankings. L.A. has a Net rating of -13.6 on the season and the worst defense in the league. Phoenix has a Net rating of +7.5 and is top 5 in both offensive and defensive ratings. The Tempo also have very misleading offensive numbers as they’ve faced some of the leagues worst defenses. Phoenix was also just favored by slightly lower numbers at home against the Lynx and Sky who are both significantly better than this Toronto team. We will lay the points in this game and predict a Mercury win by 15 points.

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -6.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 8 Pm ET - Don’t relate last night’s home loss by the Thunder to this game tonight as the Knicks are the play in this game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Adam Silver and the NBA want nothing more than the big market Knicks to come out of the East this year and we feel they win this series in 5 games. New York had a couple rough outings early in the Atlanta series but have been cruising ever since. They have won 7 straight games and covered the spread in 6 of seven. At home they’ve been nearly unbeatable with 3 straight wins and two of those came by 29 and 39-points. New York was one of the best teams in the NBA at home this season overall at 34-11 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.3PPG. So far in these playoffs they have the best overall Net rating of +20 as they are getting it done on both ends of the court. Cleveland barely escaped the 2nd round with a Game 7 win over the Pistons. They come into this game with limited rest and an overall Net rating in the playoffs of +1.0. Cleveland is 2-5 SU on the road in this postseason and 4 of those five losses came by double-digits. The Cavs were 27-21 SU on the road this season overall with an average plus/minus of +2.3PPG. The home team won all 3 meetings between these two teams this season and the Knicks get it done here by 12+ points.

ASA NBA play on OKC Thunder -6.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:30pm ET - This is going to be a fun series and I’m betting will be much better than the actual Finals. This is a new budding rivalry as the Spurs are legitimately the only team in the league that can beat the Thunder in our opinion. Much of that is due to matchups as Wemby can nullify Holmgren on the defensive end and also exploits him on the offensive end of the court. The Spurs also have great defensive guards on the perimeter to contain SGA and company. With that said, in Game 1 we like the Thunder by double-digits. OKC fans are some of the best in the biz and will be rabid tonight in this home game against a Spurs team that has beaten their beloved Thunder 4 of five times this season. OKC was double-digit favorites in every playoff game but one and every home win came by an average of 21PPG. The Thunder are 84-15 SU the last two seasons at home with an average margin of victory of +14PPG. OKC will get Williams back for this game and his added scoring and this team will certainly not overlook the Spurs after losing to them in 4/5 this season. The betting markets are supporting our theory on this Game 1 with a heavier volume of money/tickets coming in on the public Spurs, yet the line ticked up a point from -5.5 to -6.5 here. We will fade the public and take OKC in G1.

ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings -3.5 vs. Washington Mystics, 8pm ET - We will go back to the well with the Wings at home minus the points against the Mystics tonight. Dallas has been over-valued to start the season but this line is actually light based on our math model’s projections. Dallas is 1-2 ATS this season and was just favored by -3.5 points at home against a much better Lynx team and are now laying just -4.5 against this young Mystics team. Washington has a roster made up of first and second year players and this will be a tough spot for them to play at a peak level giving the circumstances. Washington is coming off two straight OT games including a win in Indiana over the Fever a few nights ago in a high energy arena and now face a Wings team that has been at home and are off two straight losses. Dallas wasn’t great at home last season but the Mystics were bad on the road with a 6-16 SU record and an average loss margin of -6.6PPG. That was with a few vets on the team, not rookies and first year players. Given the circumstances we like Dallas to get a much needed home win before a tough 3-game road trip.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -3.5 vs. Chicago Sky, 10 pm ET - We made a mistake and bet the Mercury in their last game against the Lynx but that result has impacted today’s number and value clearly lies with Phoenix here. Chicago is projected to be one of the lower teams in the WNBA this season yet they are catching essentially the same number here from the Mercury, that Phoenix was just favored by against a contender in Minnesota. Chicago is 2-0 but both wins have come against the expansion Portland Fire and last years expansion team the Golden State Valkyries. Phoenix opened the season with an impressive road win in Vegas but has since lost two straight which should have them motivated here. Phoenix has the better roster at this point with Alyssa Thomas – another potential MVP candidate along with Copper and Bonner. Phoenix was 18-10 SU at home a year ago with an average +/- of plus 5.4PPG. As a home favorite they were 9-10 ATS but had an average margin of victory in those games of +6.2PPG. Chicago didn’t travel well a year ago with a 4-18 SU on the road a year ago with an average loss margin of -10.4PPG. The situation favors the Mercury minus the points.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -5.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:40 pm ET - There are plenty of trends out there that support the Wolves at home that rely on Game 6 home dog situations, but it’s become obvious the Spurs are just that much better. In fact, the betting markets are supporting that train of thought with the Sharps pounding San Antonio tonight. We could visually see the Wolves were struggling and barely managed to beat the Spurs without Wemby in Game 4 at home. Then is Game 5 we accurately predicted a Spurs win and tonight they end the series in Minnesota with a double-digit win. The T’Wolves offense in the last two games has struggled with a Net rating of 104.5 and an eFG% of 47.2% - both substantially lower than their season long averages of 115.6 and 55.9%. Obviously, that has a lot to do with the Spurs defense that was one of the best all season long with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.114-points per possession allowed during the regular season. In the post season the Spurs have been the best defense of the playoffs allowing 1.034PPP. It’s not just defense that the Spurs have the clear advantage over the Wolves. San Antonio has an OEFF of 1.165-points per possession in the playoffs, the Wolves OEFF is 1.087PPP – and that’s after facing a bad Denver defense in the first round. The Spurs are moving on to face the Thunder in the WC Finals.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -3.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8pm ET - The home teams is clearly the play in this series with the host now 4-0 SU and ATS. The Pistons won the first two games at home by 10-points each, then the Cavs won in Cleveland by 7 and 9-points respectively. Dating back to the regular season that makes it 6 in a row for the home team. Cleveland was solid but not great on the road this season at 25-21 SU, but had the 2nd worst spread record away from home at 17-29 ATS. The Pistons are 36-10 SU at home this season, 25-21 ATS but have a +10.2PPG average scoring differential which was 3rd best in the NBA this season. Detroit has better overall numbers with a Net rating of +4.2 In the postseason, compared to the Cavs at +0.1. With this low of a number we will back the Pistons at home off back to back losses.

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -3.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx, 10 pm ET - This is a very favorable line for the Mercury who should win this game by double digits against the Lynx without Napheesa Collier, one of the 2 best players in the league. Phoenix opened the season with a big upset win over the Aces – who had beaten them in the playoffs a year ago – then lost their next game in Golden State. Minnesota is coming off a 1-point loss at home to Atlanta – who we feel is vastly overrated. Phoenix has the better roster at this point with Alyssa Thomas – another potential MVP candidate along with Copper and Bonner. They also have promising rooked Olivia Miles who scored 21-points in her WNBA debut. Phoenix was 18-10 SU at home a year ago with an average +/- of plus 5.4PPG. As a home favorite they were 9-10 ATS but had an average margin of victory in those games of +6.2PPG. This Minnesota team is not the same without Collier and they’ll have a tough time scoring in this one against a Mercury team that was 5th in defensive Net rating a year ago. Lay it with Phoenix.

#905 ASA TOP PLAY ON New York Yankees Run Line -1.5 (-100) over Baltimore Orioles, Monday at 6:35 PM ET - The Orioles are likely starting Brandon Young and he is expected to be facing southpaw Ryan Weathers of the Yankees.  There are a ton of edges for New York in this one including the fact that Baltimore is 0-9 this season against left-handed starters.  Also, the Orioles faced the Yankees in the Bronx earlier this month and lost all 4 games in true blowout fashion.  In fact the aggregate score of the 4 games was a whopping 39 to 10.  This shapes up to be another blowout.  The Orioles Young went 0-4 with an 8.72 ERA in his 7 home starts last year in his rookie season.  This year Young has again struggled and his two home starts have seen him compile a 6.52 ERA and he allowed 16 hits in 9 and 2/3 innings in those two starts.  This was after allowing 47 hits in 32 innings at home last season!  Young should get pummeled again here while the Yankees Weathers now has a 3.57 ERA in 31 starts the last 3 seasons combined.  This includes a solid 5-inning win versus the Orioles in that 4-game Yankees sweep earlier this month.  The Yankees will be in bounce back mode here after a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers in Milwaukee this past weekend.  Keep in mind the Yankees entered that series on a 16-3 run!  Here they will take advantage of facing an Orioles side that is off a 2-1 win yesterday but that had lost 8 of 10 games prior to that victory.  We look for the Orioles to drop to 0-10 on the season when facing a left-handed starter.  As for having confidence to invest in the run line here, note that 23 of 26 Yankees wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs.  Also, 17 of the Orioles 23 losses this season have been defeats by a margin of 2+ runs.  This game has the right ingredients to be a road rout and this is a great spot Monday.  We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line for a top game in this one!

Liga Portugal (Primeria Liga): #206610 ASA PLAY ON Benfica Goal Line -1.25 (-107) over Braga, Monday at 3:15 ET - Great spot for a home blowout.  Braga is off a disappointing 3-1 loss in mid-week action in Germany as they were battling in Europa League action.  Benfica has a significant rest edge here as a result.  Also, Benfica is going for the #2 spot in the table for the season and, though Braga is also a solid club the visitors have been quite inconsistent in recent weeks.  Benfica, on the other hand, has revenge from a 3-1 loss to Braga in League Cup action in January.  Being at home for this rematch is a big boost for Benfica as they have won 3 straight on their home pitch and the 3 victories came by an aggregate score of 9 to 1.  That is domination and we expect more of the same here as Benfica gets some revenge and they take advantage of a worn-out Braga side that is playing for the 4th time in 12 days while this will be just the 2nd game for Benfica from April 26th until today, May 11th.  Huge situational edge and the fact the goal line is at -1.25 means that if Benfica wins this match by only 1 goal it would only be a half-loss at the books.  However, we certainly are not expecting only a 1-goal win, we are confident in yet another home win by a multi-goal margin for the hosts in this one.  We will take Benfica on the goal line at -1.25 goals here in Benfica Monday.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 7:40 pm ET - The Wolves shocked the Spurs in Game 1, then got pummeled in Game 2 by San Antonio then lost Game 3 at home. Now we expect Minnesota to play like they did in Game 1 in what should be a very competitive game down to the wire. The Wolves went 3-0 at home against the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs with all three wins coming by double-digits. In fact, the Wolves have the 3rd best Net rating at home in the post season at +16.0. Granted, the Spurs are 3-0 away from home with a +18.4 Net rating on the road in the playoffs but two of those wins also came against the 7 seed Blazers. The home team has won 4 of the six meetings this season and the Wolves bounced back well after a loss this season with a 22-14 SU record and an average +/- of +3.9PPG. We expect a regression in the Spurs shooting after a 46% overall night and 36% from beyond the arc in Game 3. We love Wemby who looks like a generational talent, but we also don’t see him putting together another 13/18 shooting night for 39-points. Minnesota may not win this game outright but are numbers suggest a 1-score game either way.

#200010 ASA PLAY ON Brighton & Hove Goal Line -1.5 (-135) over Wolverhampton, Saturday at 10 AM ET - Great spot for a home blowout.  Brighton still has sights set on earning a European position in the EPL table.  As for Wolverhampton, they know they are being relegated.  They only managed a 1-1 draw with Sunderland last week.  Brighton is actually off a loss last week which is what strengthens this play further.  There will be no holding back for Brighton here as they also seek revenge for a disappointing 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture this season.  The Wolves have not scored a single goal in 3 of their last 4 road matches.  The Albion, on the other hand, had scored 9 goals in their last 4 matches prior to being held in check a bit in a 3-1 loss at Newcastle United.  Now that they are back home Brighton & Hove respond big here and take advantage of facing a foe that is sluggishly heading to the finish line of a very disappointing season.  We are confident in a blowout win for the home side in this one and will take Brighton & Hove on the goal line at -1.5 goals in this one. 

#952 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 (+110) over Colorado Rockies, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - 17 of the last 20 Rockies losses have been by a margin of at least 2 runs and that includes a current run of 8 in a row! Of course the Phillies are a big money line favorite at home on Friday but we get value on the run line and we fully expect the Rockies stretch of multi-run margin losses to continue here. We love the Phillies in this bounce back spot as they are off a 12-1 loss to the Athletics yesterday while the Rockies are off a win. Colorado had lost 6 in a row (by an average margin of 4 runs per defeat) prior to their win yesterday over the Mets. Philadelphia, prior to yesterday's ugly loss, was on an 8-1 run as they have responded well to the managerial change from Thomson to Mattingly. In terms of the starting pitching today, Jesus Luzardo has unimpressive numbers on the season but he started slow and has turned the corner. In his last 3 starts he has allowed only 3 earned runs in 18 innings of work. Last season he went 15-7 with a 3.92 ERA for the Phillies and he appears to be back on track once again. As for the Rockies Chase Dollander, he had been pitching better than expected early this season but the wheels came off in his last start. Let's not forget that Dollander went 2-12 with a 6.52 ERA last season. We expect last week's start to be a sign of things to come as his struggles resume. We are laying 1.5 runs with the Phillies run line in this one and note that the Rockies last 8 losses have all been by a margin of at least 2 runs. This one will make it 9 in a row!

#971 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (-130) over Houston Astros, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - The Dodgers let us down yesterday as Ohtani pitched well but LA surprisingly got shut down at the plate. We will get some back here today after that top game loss Tuesday. Los Angeles had a rare 4-game losing streak last week but then responded with B2B wins prior to yesterday's loss. Also, before the Dodgers 4-game losing streak they had gone 7-2 this season when entering a game off a loss. We like backing strong teams off a loss and LA fits that category today plus they have a huge pitching edge. Not only do the Astros have a league-worst bullpen ERA this season, the Houston starter today is Lance McCullers and he has a 6.32 ERA this season and had a 6.51 ERA last season. The Dodgers will counter with Tyler Glasnow on the mound here and he is 3-0 with a 2.56 ERA in his 6 starts this season and he has held opponents to a .146 batting average this season! Last season he held hitters to a .177 average and this followed his first season with LA in which he held opponents to a .190 batting average! Look for Glasnow to frustrate the Astros hitters here while LA bounces back at the plate against McCullers and an overall weak Astros bullpen. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one and note that the Dodgers 10 road wins this season have all been by a margin of at least 2 runs!

#927 ASA TOP PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (-130) over Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Dodgers won yesterday's game 8-3 and this should be another road rout.  We will get involved today utilizing the run line as LA is a massive (-230) favorite on the money line here.  No hesitation for us in laying the 1.5 runs (-130 price) on the run line as all 10 of the Dodgers road wins this season have been by a multi-run margin.  The Astros bullpen has a 6.22 ERA and a 4-11 record and that lofty ERA ranks Houston dead last in the majors.  The Dodgers rank 11th in the majors with a much more respectable 3.72 ERA for their bullpen this season.  In terms of starting pitching Tuesday, LA rates a huge edge with Ohtani over Lambert.  The Dodgers Ohtani has a 0.60 ERA in his 5 starts this season as he has been fantastic again this year and gone 6 innings in all 5 starts.  The Astros Lambert, on the other hand, is 9-21 with a 6.12 ERA in his career.  He has decent numbers overall in limited action (3 starts) this season but he is off an outing in which he could not make it out of the 5th inning and had as many walks as strikeouts.  Also, Lambert got hit hard in his lone home start this season.  Couple that with a weak Astros bullpen behind him and this one should get ugly.  Houston is on a long-term 8-19 run and the Dodgers are now off B2B wins and have one of the best records in the majors this season.  The Astros are a solid hitting team but LA is an even better hitting team on the season and when you couple that with the large pitching edges here, including the bullpen, there are key factors here in favor of the Dodgers.  We are going with the run line option here as we can get involved for a moderate, yet very fair, price if we lay the 1.5 runs with the Dodgers in this one. 17 of the 22 Los Angeles wins this season have been by 2+ runs.  Also, 20 of the Astros 22 losses this season have been by 2+ runs. Another blowout on the road, similar to yesterday's 8-3 thrashing, is likely here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -7 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - The 76ers are in a brutally tough scheduling situation here with just 1 day rest after coming off that emotional draining series upset of the Celtics in 7-games. New York on the other hand has been off since Thursday after eliminating the Hawks in Atlanta. There were some concerns with the Knicks in that series but they seem to have things figured out with three straight wins by 16, 29 and 51-points. You could argue the Knicks are playing better than anyone in the playoffs as they currently have the best Net rating at +18.1 (Thunder next at +17.8). Philadelphia deserves credit for their first round upset but let’s face it, they caught a MASSIVE break in Game 7 when Tatum and Vucevic didn’t play (unknown to everyone including us) and shot horrible with Brown, White and Pritchard combining for 26/66 shooting overall and 10/32 from beyond the arc. Philly ranks 11th out of sixteen playoff teams in Net rating, behind the Rockets (10th) who looked terrible in their series with the Lakers. New York was favored over the 76ers in all four games this season including being favored by -2.5-points most recently on Feb 11th in Philadelphia. New York had one of the best home court records at home this season of 32-11 SU with the second best average scoring differential of +10.2ppg. NY was 13-4 ATS against the rest of the division this season with an average +/- of +15.6ppg. Given the rest advantage we feel this game is going to be a blowout. Lay it with New York.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5 vs. Toronto Raptors, 7:30pm ET - The home team has won all 6 games in this series and we expect Cleveland to advance today. In the process they’ll cover this moderate spread. Historically home teams in Game 7’s tend to win big (someone forgot to tell Boston) and today we get a favorable number with the Cavs who were favored by more than this in the 3 previous home games in this series. In Games 1& 2 the Cavs won by 13 and 10 points respectively. In Game 5 at home the Cavs won by 5 points and failed to cover. Toronto has a deafening home court advantage when the fans are engaged and last game which certainly helped the younger players in the big moment. Now it will be the vets turn to take over in Cleveland where Mitchell, Harden and Mobley have all been in the spotlight of big games before. The Raptors leading scorer Brandon Ingram is a game time decision with a heel injury and even if he does play he won’t be 100%. Cleveland has one of the best home court records in the NBA at 3-=14 SU with an average margin of victory of +4.9ppg. The Raptors have been an average road team at 22-22 SU with a plus 0.5ppg differential. The NBA playoff zig-zag theory will apply to this game with the Cavs notching a double-digit win.

ASA NBA play on Boston Celtics -7.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35pm ET - The Celtics have now lost two straight games to the 76ers and Philly was clearly the better team in both. Maxey has been the best player on the court, Paul George turned back the clock last game and Embiid actually played hard. Boston had issues with Tatum and Brown taking turns playing iso-ball and forgot what helped them win 56 games during the regular season – ball movement. In my opinion, Joe Mazzulla is the best coach in the NBA and he’ll make adjustments for this elimination game. There aren’t many teams better than the Celtics when coming off a loss as they went 21-7 SU, 15-8 ATS with an average margin of victory of +9.1PPG this season. If we go back to last season, we see the C’s were 20-5 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +18.6PPG. Boston is 31-13 SU at home this season and their average scoring differential in road games is +7.3ppg. Philly shot well in the last two games to extend this series but we expect a regression here. The 76ers were a below average shooting team on the season at 46.1% (23rd) and hit just 34.9% from deep – also 23rd in the league. Boston had two straight unusually poor shooting nights at 28% and 29% from beyond the arc but will find their rhythm at home. The line value is telling in this game as the Celtics were just favored by -6.5-points on the road and were -13.5 in the first game of this series, -8.5 in G2 and -10.5 in Game 5. We will trust the season long statistics, not the last two games and back the C’s here.

#909 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (-105) over St Louis Cardinals, Friday at 8:15 PM ET - Los Angeles is a pricey favorite on the money line here but where we get the line value is on the run line in this one. The Cardinals have had 85% of their losses (11 of 13) come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Dodgers have had 15 of their 20 wins (75%) this season come by a margin of 2 or more runs and that includes 6 of last 7 wins (86%) by a multi-run margin. The 6 wins in that run have been by an average score of 8.0 to 1.7 and we expect another blowout here. The pitching match-up here features two starters with nearly identical ERA's but the way they are entering this match-up is another key to the value. The Cardinals Matthew Liberatore is trending the wrong direction as he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts and he is off another rough outing. The Dodgers Emmet Sheehan has been charged with a total of only 6 earned runs on just 12 hits while striking out 20 in 17 and 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts! We also like backing strong teams off B2B losses. LA has lost B2B games by a single run each and then was off yesterday. They have yet to lose 3 games in a row this season and we don't see that changing here. The Cardinals are off a divisional sweep on the road but have lost 6 of their last 8 home games including 3 in a row. Liberatore has been getting hit at a .304 clip at home this season. The southpaw will be facing a Dodgers team that is 5-1 against left-handed starters this season! Also, the St Louis bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the National League! Excellent value with the Dodgers on the run line here. 6 of last 7 LA wins by 2+ and 11 of 13 STL losses by 2+ and, per the above as well, this most likely will be a road rout and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!