#821 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -3.5 over Nevada, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These two met on Friday night and Nevada pulled the upset beating Boise 74-72 as a 4.5 point underdog. It was just the 3rd loss of the year for the Broncos who now stand at 14-3 overall. This situation sets up very similarly to a situation Boise encountered just over a week ago. They were @ Colorado State who is rated right around 30 spots higher than this Nevada team and Boise lost the opener of a 2 game series as a 3-point favorite. They bounced back on the road 2 days later and took out CSU by 8 points. When the Broncos met this Nevada team on Friday night, they led nearly the entire game. They were up by 5 at half and Nevada took their FIRST lead of the 2nd half with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game and went on to win by 2. The Wolfpack shot lights out for the game at 53% and still trailed nearly the entire way. It was Nevada’s 2nd highest shooting percentage of the entire year in MWC play (13 games). Can they pull that off again on Sunday? We highly doubt it as we expect Boise, who ranks 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency and eFG% defense, to clamp down on that end of the court after playing poorly on Friday. While the Broncos defense is one of the best in the MWC, their offense IS the best in the conference as they average 1.16 PPP in league play (1st in the conference). On Friday they were solid on that end of the court (1.07 PPP) but still well below their average. The Broncos also turned the ball over on nearly 20% of their possessions which is very unlike they as they rank 1st in the conference in that category as well coughing it up just on 15% of possessions. So in other words, Nevada played a great game while Boise underperformed in most of their stats and the game still went to the wire. The Broncos are 13-3 ATS the game following a SU loss dating back to last year and we fully expect a top notch performance on Sunday. Lay the small number with Boise State.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Boston Celtics, 2 PM ET - It would be interesting to flip these two teams into the other conference and see where they stand. As it is right now the Suns are a mid-to-lower playoff team in the West while Boston is considered a top 4 team in the East. Our metrics suggest the Suns would be regarded similarly as the Celtics currently are in the East and vice versa. The Suns are 5-2 SU as a home favorite this season with an average margin of victory of +9.4PPG. Three of the Suns losses this season have come against Denver twice and the Clippers who are two of the top four teams in the West along with the Lakers and Jazz. Boston is coming off a road win against the Clippers, but they were in a favorable scheduling situation as the Clippers were off a long East coast trip. Boston’s other road wins this season have come against teams that have a combined 56-79 SU record. The C’s rank 11th in offensive efficiency on the road but drop all the way to 18th in DEFF. Phoenix is 15th in OEFF at home but rank 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.055-points per possession on their home court. Boston is without a pair of starters here in Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart and don’t have enough depth to overcome those losses. Our computers have the Suns winning by 7 here.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +5 over Toronto Raptors, 8 PM ET - The line move on this game is an indicator Trae Young will be in the lineup for the Hawks tonight and we like Atlanta as a home dog here. Let’s start there. Atlanta is coming off their worst shooting night of the season as they hit just 33% from the field versus the Jazz in a blowout loss. Our models like them to bounce back here against an average Toronto team coming off a big upset of the Nets last night. The Hawks schedule of late has been brutal with five games against five of the best teams in the NBA (Jazz, Lakers, Clippers, Nets and Bucks). Now they take a step down against a Raptors team that has the same record as they do at 10-12 SU. Toronto has a positive road differential of +.5PPG but they are just 4-7 SU away from home and they are 0-2 SU this season when playing without rest. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS as a home dog this season BUT those losses came against some of the league’s elite teams and Toronto is not on that level. Toronto is 2-3 ATS as a road chalk this year. Finally, consider this, the Lakers just played here and were -7-points and now the Raptors are laying a number near that? Bet the Atlanta Hawks in this one.

#707 ASA PLAY ON 8* Jacksonville State -3 over SE Missouri State, Saturday at 5 PM ET - Despite their 7-5 OVC record we feel Jax State is one of the top teams in the conference. They’ve already beaten Austin Peay and Murray State on the road, two of the top five teams in the league. They are healthy now after missing a key player for 3 of their 5 conference losses. UNC transfer Huffman missed their loss vs Morehead St (2nd meeting) and Georgia transfer Ngumezi missed their losses vs Morehead St (1st meeting) and Eastern Kentucky. Their only 2 other OVC losses came vs Belmont (the best team on the league) by 7 and vs Eastern KY in OT. They’ve controlled the bottom half of the conference, winning all of their games thus far vs the bottom half of the conference. That’s where SE Missouri sits. They are currently ranked right around 300 in most power ratings and all of their OVC wins have come against teams ranked 300 or lower. Not only that, 4 of their 5 conference wins (vs teams all ranked 300 or lower) have come by 4 points or less. Jax State is the 2nd most efficient team in the OVC and they’ve scored at least 80 points in 4 of their last 6 games. SEMO is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation (301st in efficiency) and they’ve only reached 70 points once in their 12 conference games. SEMO is 5-7 in conference play despite playing the easiest schedule in league play. Jacksonville State has handled all of the lower ranked teams in the conference and we’re getting a gift with the Gamecocks laying only 3 points here.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -3.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - This is a tough match up for the Badgers. Defensively, they struggle to contain athletic, quick back courts and Illinois has just that. They have problems staying with penetrating guards and on top of that UW usually has an advantage inside with Reuvers and Potter but that won’t necessarily be the case here. Illinois has two very good big men in Cockburn and Bezhanishvili who open up the outside for one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation (10th best in the country). Four of Illinois five losses have come vs teams that scored at least 80 points in their game. Wisconsin isn’t built to put up huge numbers offensively. In fact the Badgers have scored 80+ points in just 1 of their 12 Big 10 games (in regulation). They often win low scoring games and we’re not sure they can hold Illinois (8th most efficient offense in the country) in check here. So that means Wisconsin will have to keep up and we don’t think they can. Wisconsin has beaten the teams they are supposed to for the most part, however they’ve only played 2 teams ranked in the top 6 in the Big 10 and lost to both (Ohio State by 12 and Michigan by 23). The favorite is 19-7-1 ATS the last 27 meetings and this is simply a bad match up for Wisconsin. Lay the points.

#636 ASA PLAY ON 8* Clemson -2.5 over Syracuse, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Clemson has one of the biggest home/road dichotomies in the nation.  They are 7-1 at home with their only loss coming vs Virginia, the top rated team in the ACC.  The Tigers were smoked in their 3 most recent road games losing @ Duke, @ Ga Tech, and @ Florida St.  However their last 2 home games they beat Louisville and UNC.  They also beat Florida State at home this year so they have W’s vs 3 of the top teams in the ACC in their own arena.  Speaking of home/road dichotomy, the Cuse also has a fairly drastic difference in regards to that.  The Orange have lost 4 of their 5 road games this season with their only win coming @ BC, who is 3-10 overall and 1-6 in ACC play.  Their other 4 road losses have come by an average of 15 PPG.  We have a huge difference defensively in this game as Syracuse allows 80 PPG on the road while Clemson gives up just 57 PPG in their 8 games.  The Tigers are 7-2-1 their last 10 home games while Syracuse is just 1-5 ATS their last 6 on the road.  These 2 have met 5 times in Clemson since 2007 and the Tigers have won 4 of those games.  We’ll take the host on Saturday.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:30 PM ET - The Nets win with offense and when the Big 3 of Kyrie, Harden and Durant are on the floor they’re nearly impossible to defend. In their last five games the Nets have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.252 points per possession and are averaging 129.4PPG. The concern for Brooklyn is their defense but they have the ability to turn it up against good teams. The Nets are allowing 1.136PPP on the season which ranks then 26th in the NBA but in their last eight games against winning teams that efficiency rating improves dramatically. In their last five games the Nets have a +8PPG point differential which is 5th best in the league. Toronto has struggled out of the gate this NBA season with a 9-12 SU, 8-13 ATS record. The Raptors are off two wins versus an Orlando team that is 8-14 SU and dealing with injuries so we’re not impressed. Making a line comparison we see the Raptors were just +4.5 points at Indiana who isn’t on the same level as this Brooklyn team. Brooklyn is 5-1 SU their last six games and on a 5-0 spread run at home with the wins coming by an average of +6PPG. Toronto has an offensive efficiency rating of 1.116PPG which ranks 18th in the NBA and they’ll have a tough time keeping pace with the Nets here.

#860 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one sets up nicely for PSU coming off an embarrassing effort @ Wisconsin while Maryland won a barn burner at home vs Purdue. The Nittany Lions played the Badgers back to back and we could see the potential for a blowout after they beat UW on Saturday and then had to travel to Madison on Tuesday. PSU was stymied by Wisconsin’s defense holding the Nits to just 56 points which again we could see coming after the Badgers played very poor defensive vs them a few days earlier. Penn State is undervalued right now because of their overall & Big 10 record (6-8 & 3-7) but this team is solid. They’ve had a number of players miss games this season and they are now getting healthy over the last few weeks with Sessoms and Dread back in the line up. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and one of those losses was a 4-point setback @ Ohio State, who just might be the best team in the Big 10 right now. PSU led by 8 in the 2nd half of that game. They are 3-1 at home in Big 10 play with their only loss coming vs Illinois before Christmas. Maryland is off a thrilling 61-60 win over Purdue at home. It was a game the Terps led for a total of 5:00 minutes and won the game on 2 FT’s with 3 seconds remaining. Tough spot for them with a home game vs Ohio State on deck as well. Both rely heavily on the 3-point shot offensively and while PSU is decent at defending the arc (114th nationally & 5th in the Big 10), Maryland stinks in that regard (249th nationally & 11th in the Big 10). PSU plays much better offensively at home averaging 81 PPG while hitting almost 47% of their shots. They’ve also had some back luck in conference play this year with opponents hitting nearly 79% of their FT’s vs PSU in league play. That won’t happen here as the Terps make just 64% of their freebies in conference play. The home team has won 7 straight in this series and the host has also covered 5 of the last 6.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +3 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:35 PM ET - It’s not a good spot for the Mavs who are off a game last night in Atlanta, playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th in six. Dallas will sit Porzingis here as he’s not ready for that type of workload and they don’t want to jeopardize a set back to his injuries. Porzingis is off a 24-point 11 rebound night in Atlanta last night. Golden State on the other hand is off a close loss a few nights ago but are rested here. The big difference between these two teams is 3-point shooting. The Mavs are the 30th ranked 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 32.7% and you don’t win in today’s NBA if you can’t shoot beyond the arc. The Warriors on the other hand shoot over 36% from deep which is 17th in the league. Granted the Warriors are without two of their “bigs” here in Looney and Wiseman, but the Mavs prefer the small ball lineup with Green at the five and the Mavs don’t have the personnel to take advantage. Dallas is 1-3 SU and ATS when playing without rest this season and they’ve lost those games by an average of 11PPG. Dallas is 0-5 ATS their last five at home, 0-4 ATS as a home favorite. Warriors have won seven of eight when playing against sub .500 teams this season and a road win here looks promising.

#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +2.5 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Bearcats have had a long layoff having not played a game since January 10th. They had 6 straight games cancelled due to Covid within the program. Not only have they not played, they’ve practiced very little. In fact, their first 5 on 5 type practice in weeks was on Tuesday of this week. Head coach John Brannen also said his full roster will not be available for this game and he expects a few walk ons to log extended minutes in this game. So Cincy is laying points in this road tilt despite practicing just twice recently (Tues & Wed), without a full roster, and the chances of the players being in game shape is slim to none. On top of that, this simply isn’t the Cincinnati team of old as they were just 3-7 (1-4 in the AAC) when they had their extended break. Temple has been inconsistent but they’ve shown they have the ability to play very well at times. One of their key offensive players finally got into the line up in mid January as Butler transfer Khalif Battle has been able to play the last 4 games (11 PPG). Last week the Owls beat one of the top teams in the AAC here at home topping Tulsa 76-67. Tulsa was a 1.5 point favorite in that game and now Cincinnati is favored by 2.5? Tulsa is better than Cincinnati and beat the Bearcats on the road already this year. After their win vs Tulsa, the Owls laid an egg over the weekend losing at home to Tulane as an 8 point favorite. After that loss we expect Temple to play very well (third straight home game) before going on the road for 4 of their last 5. This is a big game for the Owls. Cincy is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (328th) so they need to score inside the arc to be effective. That’s where the Temple defense excels ranking 48th nationally at defending 2-point attempts, The Owls also rarely send teams to the FT line so the Bearcats will struggle to score here. The last 2 seasons these teams have met 3 times with the Bearcats winning all 3 very tight by margins of 1, 4, and 7 points and those games took place when Cincy was a better team than they are right now. We fully expect Temple to get the home win here. Take the points here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Red Wings Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Wednesday at 5:35 PM ET - The Lightning, of course, are the better team here and they are the defending Stanley Cup Champions and they are huge favorites on the money line for a reason.  But the Red Wings are very likely to be the more motivated team plus should get solid goal-tending here and we like the value available with the +1.5 goals on the puck line.  Thomas Greiss will be between the pipes for Detroit and, in his 6 starts he has allowed a total of only 14 goals in regulation.  He has been very consistent in his starts for the Red Wings and not allowed more than 3 goals in any of them.  That average of 2.3 goals in regulation time of the 6 starts that Greiss has made is also a big reason that 4 of 6 losses have been by just a single goal and two of those were in overtime.  Look for another 1-goal game here.  Last season Tampa Bay was also a huge favorite in both games but both were 1-goal games and the Red Wings even got the outright upset in one of those games.  Detroit has some guys on the quarantine list but they have already been playing without them and gotten adjusted to that and have still been ultra-competitive most games as you can see from all the tight losses they have had this season.  The Tyler Bertuzzi injury hurts but the Red Wings just battled Florida to a 3-2 loss without him on Sunday.  Tampa Bay is off a 5-2 win but they entered that game on a 2-1-1 run where each win was by a single goal.  Look for another close game here early Wednesday evening.  Grabbing the +1.5 goals (and getting a come back price too, currently in +110/115 range) with Detroit is the play here

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +1.5 over LA Clippers, 7:35 PM ET - This is clearly a marquee game between two of Star ridden teams and we like the Nets at home in a win. The Clippers have won 10 of their last eleven games and are starting to look like the team that was supposed to win a Championship last season. But a closer look at this current streak doesn’t have us as excited as Clipper fans are. In their last ten wins the Clippers best win is over the Indiana Packers who are 11-9 SU on the season and not ONE of the other wins came against a team that is above .500 right now. The Clippers are one of the top teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency and have risen up the ranks in defensive efficiency (11th) lately because of the weak schedule. We like the fact Brooklyn comes into this game off an upset loss against a very motivated Wizards team and will look to get back on track here. The Nets have won 7 of their last ten games with one of those coming at home against the Bucks. James Harden sat out the other night but is expected back here giving the Nets their vaunted “Big 3” on the offensive end of the court which makes them extremely difficult to defend. The Clippers have some injury questions of their own with two starters (Batum, Beverley) potentially out again tonight. The bigger Stars rise to the occasion tonight and get a home win.

ASA top play on 10* North Carolina -3.5 @ Clemson, 7 PM ET - Clemson has literally forgotten how to play defense as they’ve allowed 1.467, 1.327, 1.151 and 1.213 points per possession in four of their last five games. Those are all drastically higher than the D1 average of 1.018PPP. In the Tigers most recent game they gave up 79-points to a Duke team that ranks slightly higher in offensive efficiency in ACC play than this North Carolina team. The Tarheels are scoring 1.043 points per possession, 5th best in the conference. In comparison, Clemson is currently last in the ACC in offensive efficiency averaging less than .94PPP. Not only are the Tarheels better offensively but defensively it’s not close as Clemson is 3rd to last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, North Carolina is 6th. The Tarheels will own a decisive advantage on the boards with the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the country. North Carolina has played well of late with three straight wins and 6 of their last seven. We don’t think the trend of horrendous defense by Clemson is going to end anytime soon and will look to play against them here.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +6 over the LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - Don’t bet this game on the names of the front of the jerseys or the history of the franchises, bet this game on value in the number. Surprisingly, the Hawks rank 8th in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.126 points per possession which coincidentally is the exact same OEFF as the Lakers. The Hawks defensive efficiency rating is 10th best in the NBA at 1.096PPP. L.A. leads the league at 1.048PPP allowed per game. The Lakers average point differential is +7.7PPG but the Hawks aren’t far behind at +3PPG. So, looking at the overall numbers there really isn’t as big separator between these two teams as you might think. LA has been on the road for six straight games with a 2-4 SU record but the four wins haven’t been blowouts by any means at +1, +7, +11 and +7PPG. The Hawks have played well with a 6-4 SU record their last ten games and the losses came at Utah, at Portland, at Milwaukee and home in overtime versus the Nets. This line looks like a trap with the Lakers so let’s bet the team Vegas doesn’t want us to, the Hawks!

ASA top play on 10* Golden State -5.5 over Detroit Pistons, 10 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Warriors here who are at home off a loss while Detroit is off a huge upset win of the Lakers. The Pistons are 1-7 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -6.5PPG. The Pistons have THE WORST defensive efficiency on the road this year 1.183PPP OR 119PPG. Detroit has lost three straight road games by 15, 8 and 6-points. Golden State has had their ups and downs, but they are still 7-4 SU at home with a plus +5.1PPG differential. The Warriors were just -8.5 and -9 points at home over the Timberwolves who are similar to this same Pistons team and Golden State won both by 22 and 12 points respectively. We like Golden State to bounce here off the loss to the Suns.

ASA play on 8* Houston Rockets +1 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for the Pelicans who are coming off a huge upset win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night and now face a rested Rockets team. New Orleans played their starters extended minutes last night with all five logging 34 plus minutes, so fatigue becomes a factor here. Not to mention, the Pels are playing their 3rd game in four nights and teams in that situation win just 44% of the time this season. The Rockets have won four straight games and are starting to gel with the addition of Victor Oladipo, who scored 25-points, grabbed 7 rebounds, and dished out 5 assists in their win over Portland Thursday night. Houston is slightly lower in offensive efficiency ratings compared to New Orleans, but the Rockets have the 4th best defensive efficiency in the NBA versus the Pelicans 24th ranked unit. Houston has a plus differential on the season while the Pelicans have a negative overall differential of minus -1.5PPG.

#685 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois Chicago +3.5 over Northern Kentucky, Saturday at 5 PM ET - These 2 played last night with NKU coming out on top 72-68. The host made 20 FT’s to UIC’s 9 which turned out to be the difference in the game. The Flames absolutely dominated the boards 40 to 27 including 14 offensive rebounds but they shot just 38% for the game. The Hilltoppers are a poor rebounding team (328th in defensive rebounding) and one of the smallest teams in the country. We full expect Illinois Chicago to dominated the boards again on Saturday. Northern KY is one of the worst 3 points shooting teams in the nation and they were off from deep on Friday making 4 of 14 vs a UIC defense that allows just 26% from beyond the arc (6th best nationally). On Saturday we expect the Hilltoppers to struggle again from deep as they have for much of the season and if they don’t have a huge edge at the FT line, the Flames will have a great shot to win this game outright. After last night’s win, NKU is now 6-5 in Horizon League play and all of their wins prior to last night game against teams rated in the bottom 4 of the conference. We feel the Flames are a bit undervalued as they are now at full strength after playing 4 of their 9 Horizon League games without their top big man Bridges (10 PPG & 5 RPG). He’s back to full strength and we like UIC to win this game in quick revenge mode after losing a tight one last night. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Buffalo -1.5 over Ohio, 7 PM ET - We are backing the home team Buffalo in this MAC showdown and expect a double-digit win by the home team. The Bulls stand 4-3 SU in conference play this season while Ohio U checks in at 5-4 SU. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency in MAC play with Ohio averaging 1.124 points per possession while Buffalo averages 1.09PPP. Defensively it’s not close as the Bulls have the best defensive efficiency rating in conference play at .982PPP allowed compared to the Bobcats who give up 1.114PPP which ranks second to last in the MAC. Ohio is 0-4 against the top four teams in the conference (Buffalo is 5th) and lost by an average of 11PPG in all four. Buffalo is on a 4-1 ATS run right now and has covered 5 of their last six conference games. The Bulls have also won 7 of the last ten meetings with the Bobcats. When Ohio has faced better competition, it hasn’t gone well for them with a 2-5 ATS their last seven against a team with a winning record. Lastly, Buffalo has a +11PPG differential at home this season and should have their way offensively against a Bobcats defense allowing over 80PPG on the road.

#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -4.5 over Morehead State, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - These two met just a few weeks ago with Morehead winning 56-55 at home. Jacksonville State had a shot at the buzzer to pull off the road win but missed and came up just short. Jax State hit just 33% of their shot in that game and made only 6 of 23 from deep and still nearly won the game on the road. Now we’re getting great value in this revenge spot as Jacksonville State was favored by 3 @ Morehead State in that loss and now they are laying just 3.5 at home. Not only that, the Gamecocks were missing 2 key players in that game and still nearly won the game. Starting forward Kayne Henry and 6th man Amanze Ngumezi both issues that game and they’ve since come back and played very well. Ngumezi has scored 51 points in his 4 games since returning and Henry has put up 46 points in the same span. Morehead State is 8-2 in conference play but they’ve played on of the easiest slates thus far in the OVC and their last 3 wins have come vs the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. Jax State has just one home loss this year and that was vs Belmont the best team in the OVC (16-1 overall / 10-0 in conference play) and that was a tight game with the Gamecocks trailing by just 2 points with under 3:00 remaining int eh game. It was a 7 point win over Belmont but Jacksonville State hung to the end despite an -18 made FT margin. The Gamecocks shoot 50% at home and have a point margin if +17 per game at home. Morehead State has a -6 PPG margin on the road this year and we like Jax State to get their revenge at home on Thursday night.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -4 over Portland Trailblazers, 7:35 PM ET - The Rockets looked impressive in their 19-point win over Washington the other night when they had their version of the Big 3 on the court with Wall, Oladipo and Cousins. Unfortunately, Portland doesn’t have their full complement of players healthy right now with McCollum and Nurkic out for an extended time while Hood and Covington are less than 100%. The Blazers have four road wins this season but two of those were against the Kings who are 6-10 on the season. Portland was bad on the road a year ago with a 14-24 SU record and an average loss margin of minus -4.2PPG. We can’t pull statistics from the Rockets previous games this season (with Harden) but we can project what this collective group of players can accomplish based on individual efficiency statistics. Houston beat the Blazers earlier this season by 2-points in OT in Portland with McCollum and Nurkic combining for 56 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists. It looks like a great time to buy low with Houston so we’ll back the Rockets here.

#701 ASA PLAY ON 8* Wisconsin -3 over Maryland, Wed at 9 PM ET - We’re getting a very good Wisconsin team in revenge mode AND off a loss. We really like this spot. The Badgers lost at home to Maryland 70-64 back on December 28th. In that game the Terps hit 50% of their shots for 1.11 PPP and made 80% of their FT’s. That was vs a Wisconsin defense that has allowed less than 1.00 PPP in conference play and it was the Badgers worst defensive efforts of the season on a PPP basis. On the season in Big 10 play Maryland is averaging just 0.98 PPP and making only 63% of their FT’s so the numbers in the first meeting were not indicative of this team. They played over their heads. We also get Wisconsin coming off a home loss vs Ohio State on Saturday and Maryland coming off a road upset at Minnesota over the weekend. The Terps have pulled a number of upsets on the road topping Illinois, Minnesota, and Rutgers, however they have not yet won at home in Big 10 play. They have lost all 3 of their Big 10 home games by double digits. The Badgers on the other hand, have lost only 1 conference road game and that was @ Michigan. The Badgers are a very solid 3-point shooting team (34th nationally) and facing a Maryland defense that ranks 13th in the Big 10 at defending the 3. If UW holds a lead late as we expect, they also make 76% of their freebies in league play. The Badgers were favored by 10 at home in the first meeting and now only 3 on the road despite zero home court advantage? Bad line and we’ll take Wisconsin.

#692 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State +2.5 over Boise State, Wed at 9 PM ET - Wrong team is favored here according to our power ratings. Boise State sits at 9-0 in the MWC however they’ve played the easiest schedule in league play. The Broncos have not played a single team ranked in the top 6 in the conference. All 9 of their wins have come vs the bottom 5 teams in the Mountain West. The 5 teams they’ve faced in the MWC rank 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th in conference defensive efficiency (MWC has 11 teams in the conference). The 5 offenses they’ve faced rank 5th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th in MWC offensive efficiency. Boise hasn’t faced a team ranked inside the top 180 since December 9th! CSU has an 8-2 conference record but they’ve had the much tougher slate. The Rams have already faced the 2 highest rated teams in the conference (San Diego St & Utah St) and split the 2 game series which each of those teams. On top of that, both of those 2 games series was on the road. Their most recent win they knocked off Utah State 84-76 on the road last Thursday after the Aggies entered the game winning 11 in a row. The Rams are happy to finally be at home where they are 6-0 this year but haven’t played here since January 9th. CSU is one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 21st in the country in eFG% and 3-point FG% while also making 77% of their FT’s. They are even better at home making over 50% of their shots and hitting 45% of their shots from deep. The Rams take out Boise tonight.

#668 ASA PLAY ON 8* Providence -1.5 over Marquette, Wed at 7 PM ET - The Friars are just happy to finally be playing a game at home. After a 4 game road trip they are back on their home court for the first time since January 2nd. One of their opponents on that tough 4 game road trip was this Marquette team. The Golden Eagles topped Providence 79-69 in that game but it was an obvious letdown spot for the Friars while Marquette was in a very solid situation at home. Just 2 days prior to their game @ Marquette, the Friars blew a 7-point lead with 1:30 remaining in the game @ Xavier with the Musketeers hitting a 3 pointer at the buzzer to win 74-73. The quick turnaround was rough for this Providence team while Marquette had a full week off entering their game with the Friars. Providence hung around and trailed by just 2 points with just over 3:00 minutes remaining before a rested Golden Eagle team pulled away. Marquette has won their last 2 road games, however they came against St Johns (by 2) and Georgetown (by 4) who are the 9th and 11th rated teams in the Big East (who has 11 teams). The Eagles are coming off a home loss to DePaul who is the 10th rated team. Providence has played the much tougher Big East schedule (#1 SOS in conference play) yet these 2 have identical 4-5 conference records. The Friars, despite their first loss to Marquette in a bad situation, actually matched up well with the Eagles. That’s because Marquette relies fairly heavily on their 3-point shooting and Providence has the #1 three point defense in Big East play allowing opponents to shoot just 30%. On the other side, Marquette has the worst defensive efficiency numbers in the league (11th in Big East play) and they also rank last at defending the arc while the Friars are the 2nd best three point shooting team in conference games. Providence gets their revenge here with a home win.

ASA top play on 10* Syracuse +6.5 over Virginia, 7PM ET Virginia is coming off a down to the wire win against Georgia Tech on Saturday, a game in which the Yellow Jackets led for most of the game. The Cavs were an 8.5-point home favorite in that game and recently a 9.5-point chalk against Notre Dame and those two teams aren’t as good as this Syracuse team. Virginia is just 1-2 ATS at home in conference action. The Cuse are off a pair of quality wins over Miami and Virginia Tech by 26 and 18-points respectively. In ACC play these two have similar overall efficiency numbers with Virginia first in offensive efficiency while Syracuse is 3rd. The Cavs check in with the 2nd ranked ACC defensive efficiency number while the Cuse are 5th. Points are a premium in this matchup of the 2/3 zone by Syracuse and the Pack-line D used by the Cavaliers which makes the dog that much more attractive. In the last two meetings (not including OT) these two have combined for 82 and 86 Total points. Grab the points with Syracuse.

#311/312 ASA PLAY ON 8* Green Bay -3.5 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Just too many positives going for GB here to even consider Tampa in this game. The Packers are rested and healthy with no key players missing practice this week. They are set to avenge by far their worst performance of the year @ TB, a 38-10 loss. Rodgers had one of his worst EVER performances and the OLine struggled as Tampa had GB under constant pressure. Since that game, GB’s offensive line has played much better and allowed only 1 hit on Rodgers last week facing a very good Rams defense. If they give him time like last week, we expect a fairly easy win for the Packers. Tampa is in a rough spot. While GB had a bye 2 weeks ago and then played a home game, the Bucs are on the road for their 3rd straight playoff game. Looking back even further, this is their 5th road game in 6 weeks! Lastly, the Packers played on Saturday last week, while Tampa played the late game on Sunday giving Green Bay a full extra day. Historically, teams that are playing their 3rd straight road game in the playoffs, meaning they won on the road in the wildcard round and the divisional round, are just 4-14 SU & 5-13 ATS in the championship round. It’s just a very tough situation to be successful in. Last week the Packers just dominated a very good Rams team. They rushed for 188 yards and outgained LA by nearly 200 yards and 2.0 YPP. We could argue the score could have been worse than 32-18. Tampa, on the other hand, was extremely fortunate. They were outgained on a YPP basis in their 30-20 win @ New Orleans but they were gifted 4 turnovers by the Saints. Three of those turnovers led to TD drives of 3 yards, 20 yards, and 40 yards. In the wildcard round they faced the weakest team in the playoffs this year beating Washington 31-23. Washington was forced to start Heinecke at QB, his first career start, with Alex Smith unavailable and despite that they had the ball in TB territory late with a shot to score a tie the game. 13 of Green Bay’s 14 wins this year have come by at least a TD and if they can put pressure on Brady (only completes 43% of his passes when pressured) they could walk away with this one. The Packers are peaking on BOTH sides of the ball at the right time. Lastly, since 1980 home teams favored by less than 8 points in the championship round are 32-12 SU and 29-15 ATS. We like Green Bay by more than a TD in this one.

#676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville -1 over Duke, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We’re not jumping off this train yet. We’ve gone against Duke in each of their last 2 games and cashed on both @ Va Tech and @ Pitt. Now they are playing their 3rd straight road game @ Louisville on Saturday. The Devils continue to be overvalued as they are now 1-8 ATS on the season and their spread losses have come by an average of 12 PPG. In other words, they aren’t even close to covering. Louisville is coming off a home loss on Monday vs a red hot FSU team. The Noles are playing FAR better than Duke right now and the Cards were favored by 4 in that game. Now laying only 2 points vs a Duke team that is really struggling. The Devils aren’t built to win on the road right now. They aren’t a good 3-point shooting team (223rd nationally) and they don’t defend the 3 point line well (295th nationally). They don’t get to the FT line with only 13.7% of their points coming from the line (332nd nationally) so they have to shoot really well to have a chance to win and they simply aren’t a great shooting team. On top of that, Duke has been sending teams to the line a lot in ACC play with almost 20% of opponents points coming from the stripe. The Devils also rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency (conference games). The Cards are every bit as good as Va Tech & Pitt, the 2 teams that just beat Duke (by 7 & 6 points) and coming off a home less sets them up for a solid performance. We fade Duke again on Saturday.

ASA play on 8* #678 East Tennessee State +3.5 over Furman, 4PM ET - This is another quick turnaround game for both teams as they just met at Furman last Saturday. Furman won that game by 12-points as a 10-point chalk. The glaring difference in that game was the 3-point shooting as the Paladins hit 8 of 26 compared to ETSU making just 4 of 20. We expect those number to trend in the opposite direction now that this game is being played on the Buccaneers court. ETSU has gone 72-13 (.847) inside Freedom Hall since the start of the 2015-16 season, including a 5-1 mark this year and a 16-1 record last year. Since the start of the 2015-16 campaign, ETSU has won the most games in the Southern Conference with 75 victories, Furman is next at 70. In five SoCon games this season, ETSU leads the conference in rebound margin (+6.4), ranks second in field goal percentage defense (.422) and scoring defense (69.2), ranks third in three-point field goal percentage (.383), three-point field goal percentage defense (.317) and scoring margin (+5.6). The Bucs are slightly lower than Furman in conference offensive efficiency ratings but hold a sizeable advantage in defensive efficiency. Those are significant numbers considering ETSU has played the tougher schedule. In SoCon road games Furman is 0-3 ATS with a 4-point win at Chattanooga, 6-point win at The Citadel and a 1-point loss at VMI and none of those teams are as good as ETSU. This is a quick revenge game and East Tennessee State will enjoy a home court advantage here with a handful of fans

#656 ASA PLAY ON 8* Florida State -7 over Clemson, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET - Two teams heading in opposite directions here. FSU has been on fire since they came back from their 15 day covid hiatus. Since their return, they’ve beaten NC State by 32, UNC by 7, and Louisville by 13. They are extremely deep and tough to guard with 9 players averaging double digit minutes and 6 players averaging between 8 and 15 points. They have 5 players shooting 40% or better from beyond the arc. Since their covid return, the Noles have made 96 of their 182 shots (53%) and 44 of their 48 FT’s. They should have a field day vs a Clemson defense that has solid overall defensive numbers, but the Tigers have been trending down. Over their last 2 games vs UVA and Georgia Tech, the Clemson defense has allowed a ridiculous 1.47 and 1.32 PPP. The Tigers were destroyed in both of those games losing to the Cavs by 35 and the Yellow Jackets by 18. The two games prior to that Clemson struggled to beat NC State at home (won in OT), the same team FSU just beat by 30+. The game before that they came from behind in the 2nd half to beat a Miami team, that is 2-6 in ACC, by 1 point. On top of that, just before their covid break, FSU traveled to Clemson and lost by 10 points as a 1 point underdog. That was the Noles worst offensive performance of the season on a PPG and PPP basis. Clemson also held a HUGE edge at the FT line in that game with the Tigers going 24 of 33 from the stripe and FSU going 6 of 9. Clemson has scored just 66, 52, 62, and 65 points over their last 4 games (in regulation). Now with FSU rolling offensively and Clemson struggling on defense, we’re not sure Clemson can keep up in this game.

ASA play on 8* #633 Eastern Washington -2.5 over Northern Colorado, 2PM ET - In the new Covid climate back-to-back games in conference play are now the norm. That’s the case here as EW and Northern Colorado just met the other night with UNCO coming out on top 78-76. Eastern had the ball and a chance to win with 11 seconds left, but a turnover and foul led to a pair of game-winning free throws by the Bears with one tick of the clock left. Eastern sank 49 percent of its shots from the field and 88% from the free throw line, but the Eagles made just three 3-pointers compared to 13 for the Bears, who sank 43.3 percent of their treys compared to 18.8 percent for EWU. The Eagles, the preseason and defending regular season champions, are 3-6 overall and 2-2 in the Big Sky Conference. Northern Colorado was picked to finish fifth by the coaches in the Big Sky Conference preseason polls and are off to a 5-4 start. The Eagles have the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the Big Sky at 1.117PPP compared to Northern Colorado who is 9th at less than 1-point per possession. UNCO is better when it comes to conference defensive efficiency ratings than EWU, but six of the Bears games have come against three teams that are in the bottom five in OEFF in conference action. Off that disappointing loss the Eagles bounce back here with a big win.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4 over NY Knicks, 10 PM ET - This is certainly a bad spot for the Knicks playing the second night of a back to back and third game in four days. New York is coming off a game last night against the Warriors so fatigue will be a factor. The Knicks are just 4-9 SU the past two years when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of -10.5PPG. Overall New York does not do well when it comes to facing a Western Conference opponent with a 7-19 SU record their last 26 and they typically get beat bad by an average of 10.3PPG. Even though Sacramento has a 36-51 SU record the past two years they are 8-8 SU at home as a favorite. The Kings have lost 4 in a row but two of those came against the Clippers and one was against Portland and New Orleans who are all better than the Knicks. The Kings have the 11th best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA while the Knicks are 26th. New York has a solid overall defensive efficiency but they’ve played a soft schedule. Sacramento is desperate for a win and should get one by double digits here.

ASA top play on 10* St Peters +4.5 over Siena, 7 PM ET - Siena is what we call a ‘false favorite’ as their undefeated record of 6-0 SU has them over-valued here. Siena has played all conference opponents to date but four of those games were against Rider and Fairfield who are 6-14 in Metro action and two of the worst teams in the league. St Peters has faced Niagara and Canisius who are both better than Rider and Fairfield and both teams have faced Monmouth. Siena beat Monmouth twice while St Peters split with them, winning by 2 and losing by 2. The lines on the games against Monmouth are the tell in this situation as St Peters was favored by 2-points in both games at Monmouth while Siena was -2.5-point favorites at home. In fact, St Peters has been a favorite in every conference game this season. Last season these teams met twice and both games went down to the wire with a 5-point and 3-point margin. Siena also has some injury concerns while the Peacocks are healthy. Easy call here with the points.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -6.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 10 PM ET - We successfully played on the Jazz the other night against this Pelicans team and will do it again here. Despite playing just 5 home games and 9 road games the Jazz have a +/- differential this season of plus +6PPG which rates 4th best in the NBA. Utah has caught fire with six straight wins and covers, most recently a win against this same Pels team. The Jazz are one of three teams in the NBA that can boast a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and the other two are the Lakers and Bucks. The Jazz are 54-25 SU at home since 2018 with an average margin of victory of +6.2PPG. In our opinion the Pelicans made a bad hire with Stan Van Gundy as their coach. It’s not that he isn’t a great coach, he’s just not the right fit for the Pelicans. New Orleans is 1-5 SU & ATS their last six games and three of those games were at home. The Pels are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they struggle to shoot the 3-ball at 33.4%. Why won't the Pelicans get a measure of revenge here with a win? The main reason is their inability to defend the 3 which was evident in the game the other night when Utah 21 of 47 3's or 45%. The Pels can't fix that defensive liability in 2 days so expect similar results. New Orleans has played three road games against similar competition to the Jazz and lost all three by double-digits. We like Utah by 10-points here.

#730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wichita State +3 over Memphis, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Memphis continues to be overrated by the oddsmakers. They have lost 7 straight games vs the number by a combined 57 points or -8 PPG vs the spread. Since December 1st the Tigers haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 100. They are 1-5 SU overall vs top 100 teams with their lone win in their season opener vs St Marys. They are 2-2 in the AAC with their wins coming vs Tulane by 6 and South Florida by 1. Those 2 teams are ranked last and 8th in the 11 team conference. Their 2 losses came vs Tulsa, a team Wichita just beat by 19 in their most recent game (they’ve already beaten Tulsa twice). The Shockers have been impressive this year with 4 wins already vs top 100 opponents and their only 3 losses have come at the hands of Missouri (by 10), Oklahoma State (by 3) and Houston (by 7) – all ranked inside the top 40 with Houston currently ranked 8th. Their 7 point loss @ Houston was the Cougars closest win this season and a game the Shockers led by 7 in the 2nd half. Wichita has played the much tougher schedule and much more consistent schedule as they’ve played 4 games in January but have had a week off to get ready for this game. Memphis, on the other hand, just played their first game since December 29th last Sunday, a 58-57 loss @ Tulsa. The Tigers are a poor shooting team that has only top 0.90 PPP once in their last 5 games. The last three games they’ve scored 49, 58, and 57 points. We don’t think they should be favored in this game so we’ll grab the generous points with Wichita State

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -6 over New Orleans Pelicans, 9PM ET We know home favorites in the NBA have not done well this season, and the fact the Jazz are just 2-2 SU at home, but we like them here minus the points. Despite playing just 4 home games and 9 road games the Jazz have a +/- differential this season of plus +5.1PPG which rates 5th best in the NBA. Utah has caught fire with five straight wins and covers, most recently a road win at Denver, when their best player Donovan Mitchell didn’t play well. The Jazz are one of three teams in the NBA that can boast a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and the other two are the Lakers and Bucks. The Jazz are 53-25 SU at home since 2018 with an average margin of victory of +6.2PPG. In our opinion the Pelicans made a bad hire with Stan Van Gundy as their coach. It’s not that he isn’t a great coach, he’s just not the right fit for the Pelicans. New Orleans is 1-4 SU & ATS their last five games and three of those games were at home. The Pels are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they struggle to shoot the 3-ball at 33.4%. New Orleans has played three road games against similar competition to the Jazz and lost all three by double-digits. We like Utah by 10-points here.

#640 ASA PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh +4.5 over Duke, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We do not get the love for Duke. They simply aren’t very good this season. But again, this line opened with Duke favored by -2 and has jumped to -4 as people continue to play them. Very similar to last week when we took Va Tech over Duke after the Hokies opened as a 1-point favorite but went off as a 2-point dog. VT controlled the entire game on their way to a 7 point win as the dog. Duke’s spread record is an abysmal 1-7 ATS this season as the continue to be overvalued because of their name. Not only have they consistently lost to the number, it hasn’t been close. Their 7 spread losses have come by an average of 12.2 PPG. Even if we throw in their 1 spread win @ Notre Dame, the Devils average spread loss this year is by 10 points. They sit at 3-1 in the ACC, however their 3 wins have come vs the 3 lowest rated teams in the league (BC, Wake Forest, and Notre Dame). Pitt is flying under the radar right now in our opinion. This is a very solid team. They have won 7 of their last 8 games with their only loss during that run coming @ Louisville and the Panthers were without 2 of their best players, both starters, in that game. Both of those players, Toney (16 PPG) and Champagnie (19 PPG), have both returned to the line up and played very well. Pitt’s defense is the best in the ACC in league play allowing just 0.92 PPP. Duke’s defense in ACC play ranks allowing 1.07 PPP despite not playing a team ranked in the top 5 in the league in offensive efficiency and playing 3 teams ranked 11th or lower in that category. Duke shoots a lot of 3’s (almost 39% of their shots come from deep) but they are not particularly good at it. Pitt’s defense ranks 9th nationally at defending the arc allowing only 25.9%. The Devils also don’t get to the FT line with just 13% of their points coming from the stripe (330th nationally). Not a recipe for winning on the road. We like Pitt in this game both at +4 and throwing a little on the money line as well.

ASA top play on 10* Colorado State +7.5 @ Utah State, 9 PM ET - Utah State is coming off a HUGE 2-game series with San Diego State and played both games at a high level, so a letdown is imminent. San Diego State was one of the favorites to win the conference this season which is why they were small favorites in both game on this court over the weekend with the Aggies. Those two wins by Utah State has caused an over-reaction by the oddsmakers which has driven this line up to where it is now, yet Colorado State may be better than San Diego State. CSU is 3rd in the conference in OEFF at 1.115 (San Diego State 8th) and 3rd in DEFF (SDSU 5th). The Rams are a great shooting team with an EFG% of 56 (23rd in nation), 39.2% 3-point shooting (21st) a 2-pt percentage of 53.5%. Utah State will have a much tougher time defending the Rams shooters in this game than they did SDSU. Utah State has some incredible defensive numbers this season but prior to the two games against San Diego State they hadn’t played a team ranked higher than 212 per KenPom in 8 straight games. We like the Rams and the points here in a close game.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - We are NOT betting this game because of the Harden deal! Yes, that’s certainly a factor but our analytics have the Bucks grade lower than the oddsmakers as they aren’t playing up to last years standards. The Bucks are 9-4 SU with a +/- differential of plus 10.8PPG. but they’ve faced an extremely easy schedule. Milwaukee has only faced two teams with current winning records, and they lost both of those games (Jazz, Celtics). In their current four game winning streak the teams they’ve beaten have a combined record of 21-27. The Nets now are the favorite in the East with arguably the three best individual scorers in the NBA on their roster. Harden, Durant and Irving can literally go for 50 on any given night and opposing coaches/teams will have nightmares trying to figure out how to stop them. Brooklyn has also played a soft schedule BUT they’ve beaten the four best teams they’ve faced (Denver, Philly, Utah & Boston). The Nets have too many superstars and will be out to prove a point here.

#876 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville -1.5 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Cards are coming off a 78-72 loss @ Miami in a game they were favored by -4.5 points. Their starting guards, Jones and Johnson, both shoot around 40% from 3-point land combined for 2 of 9 from deep on Saturday. The Cards as a team made only 3 of 20 from deep which was the difference in the game. The should fare much better at home on Monday vs an FSU defense that is poor at defending the arc (263rd nationally). The Noles topped North Carolina on Saturday, however the Heels, who entered Saturday ranked 11th in the ACC in 3-point shooting, made 10 shots from deep vs FSU. The Noles had a long 2+ week break recently due to covid issues and they’ve had 2 games since that break both at home last Wednesday and on Saturday. They won both games and their offense was ridiculously good. Over the 2 games they made 65 of their 108 shot attempts (60%), 20 of their 34 three point attempts (59%), and 37 of their 38 FT attempts (97%). While they do have an efficient offense, those numbers are not sustainable especially now that they take the road for only the 2nd time this season. Their first road game was @ Clemson and FSU lost that game by 10 shooting 42% overall and just 28% from deep. They are facing a very solid Louisville defense (allowing 0.93 PPP) coming off one of their worst efforts of the year on Saturday as Miami hit them for 1.15 PPP. Expect the Cards to play very well defensively on Monday. FSU is also a bit banged up with guards Barnes (11 PPG) possibly out and and Walker (16 PPG) a game time decision. Louisville is 7-0 at home this year and they are also 19-4 their last 23 home meetings with FSU. The Noles are a bit overvalued right now and Louisville is at home off a loss. Nice spot to lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7 @ Dallas Mavericks, 3 PM ET - The Bulls have lost four straight games, but they’ve been competitive in all of those losing by a combined 11 total points. Prior to this losing streak they had won 4 of five games including a win at home over this Dallas team. In their last four game the Bulls lost to the Clippers by 3-points and the Lakers by 2-points, both on the road. As a dog this season the Bulls have covered 8 of ten games. The Mavs look like a MASH unit right now with several key contributors currently sidelined, but they did recently get Porzingis back in the lineup. Dallas is also on a nice spread run with five straight covers but all but one of those were as a dog or small favorite. The Mavs have a winning record at 6-5 SU with an average point differential of +4.3PPG which is not enough to cover here. Chicago has a negative differential of -4.8PPG this season which is good enough to get the money here. Dallas may win this game but it won’t be by a wide margin.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore +2.5 over Buffalo, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - The Ravens should have a huge advantage on the ground in this game. They are the #1 rush offense in the NFL (191 YPG) and they’ve been on fire as of late averaging 262 YPG rushing over their last 6 games including topping 230 yards rushing in 5 of those games. That success should continue facing a Buffalo defense that allows 4.7 YPG (27th in the NFL) and gave up 163 yards on 5.4 YPC last week vs Indy. The Bills found a way to win that game but they were outgained on the ground and through the air in that one. Buffalo is a poor running team already and lost their top RB Moss to an injury last week. Baltimore has a fairly large edge overall defensively ranking in the top 10 in many key categories. They have the highest blitz rate in the NFL and we think Buffalo QB Allen will make some mistakes because of that pressure. Last week the Ravens held the Titans (6th ranked offense in the NFL) to just 209 total yards. Baltimore head coach Harbaugh is a great road playoff coach has he now owns the all time record for wins on the road in the post season with 8. He has a road warrior type team as the Ravens are 15-3 SU their last 18 road games and 13-4 ATS their last 17 road playoff games. Not only that, Baltimore QB Jackson has started 39 games in his career and only lost 3 of those by more than 6 points so when they do lose, it’s close. Baltimore led the NFL in point differential for the 2nd straight year and we feel they are undervalued. With very little to no home field advantage and the way the Ravens perform on the road, we’ll take the points here.

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

The Maple Leafs are looking for immediate revenge in this one after getting embarrassed 5-3 at Ottawa last night.  That being said, the value here is with the puck line.  Toronto is a -200 favorite on the money line but available right around +125 money on the puck line.  Can we expect a win by two or more goals here?  Yes!  Look for at least a margin of 2 goals in this one!  The Maple Leafs were guilty of overlooking the Senators last night but will make up for that tonight.  Ottawa comes into this season projected to be one of the worst teams in the league while the Maple Leafs are projected to be one of the best.   The Leafs simply overlooked the Sens knowing Ottawa was playing their first game in 10 months while Toronto was off an emotional 4-3 OT win over Montreal on opening night.  The set up was a bad one for the Maple Leafs last night but now on Saturday it is exactly the opposite and Toronto should roll here.  Last season the Maple Leafs won 18 road games and 15 of those victories came by a margin of at least 2 goals. Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting a great come back price, currently in +125 range) with Toronto is the value play here

ASA PLAY ON 8* Green Bay -6.5 over LA Rams, Saturday at 4:35 PM ET - We like the Packers at home laying under a TD in this one. Historically this is a terrible spot for the Rams as teams coming off a SU win as an underdog in the Wildcard round are just 22-36 ATS as an underdog in the Divisional round (only 12-46 SU in that spot). The Rams are banged up at a number of key positions including both offensive tackles, DT Aaron Donald, and QB Jared Goff. He was already struggling throwing the ball over the final month of the season and now he had surgery on his hand a few weeks ago and struggled to grip the ball last week. Now in the cold weather, where Goff has been terrible anyway (0 TD’s and 5 interceptions in the 2 games in his career below 30 degrees) we can’t foresee him having a good game. The Rams will go heavy with the run game here, but they will still need Goff to play very well to win this game and we just don’t see it. The Packers are rested and unlike Goff, Aaron Rodgers has been great in cold weather with a passer rating of 108.7 with 10 TD’s and just 1 interception in his last 10 games in temps below 30 degrees (windchill on Saturday will be in the mid 20’s). While GB has had a week off to prepare and rest up, the Rams will be playing in their 10th consecutive week. Tough situation especially when you’re already banged up. While we respect the Rams defense and expect they will have some success against the GB offense, we still feel the Packers will put numbers on the board here. Only 3 of the Rams opponents this season in their 17 games played ranked in the top 10 in total offense to end the season. Two of those opponents (Buffalo & TB) scored 35 & 24 points respectively, far more than LA’s season average of 18.6 PPG allowed. GB will definitely be one of the top few offenses this defense has faced this season. We don’t think LA’s offense with an inaccurate and injured QB will keep up here. Lay it.

#691 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -4.5 over Texas Tech, 4:00 PM ET - Baylor has been one of two dominant teams this year along with Gonzaga. The Bears are 11-0 with all 11 wins coming by double digits. That includes 4 wins vs top 100 teams and an 13 point win vs an outstanding Illinois team who ranks 8th nationally in the power rankings. Their average margin of victory on the season is +28 points. They rank in the top 5 nationally in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency. The Bears also rank in the top 10 nationally in eFG%, 3 point %, and offensive rebounding. This is as complete a team as you’ll find in the nation. Texas Tech is solid. They are not on the same level as Baylor. The Red Raiders have already lost 2 home games vs Oklahoma State & Kansas. They have won just 2 games this season vs top 50 teams both by margins of 2 points. Tech is coming off a huge won @ Texas winning 79-77 on a last second shot by Mac McClung. The Raiders were more than fortunate as they led that game for a total of 45 seconds. Baylor won both games in this Big 12 series last year and the Bears have taken a big step forward while our ratings have Tech at about the same level as a year ago. We actually feel Tech is a bit overvalued as they’ve lost 5 straight home games to the number. Baylor is the much better team this season and we’ll lay the small number.

#646 ASA PLAY ON 8* Minnesota +6 over Michigan, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - We think the Gophers have a great shot to pull off the upset here. Michigan steps in with an undefeated 10-0 record but they’ve played the easiest conference schedule to date. They’ve already faced Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, and Maryland, the 4 lowest power rated teams in the conference. The Wolverines have also been on the road for only 2 of their 10 games this season and those games were back in December vs Northwestern and Maryland, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the Big 10. Michigan is also coming off a huge win over Wisconsin (their only top tier conference opponent they’ve faced) and they played the perfect game. They hit 52% of their shots, 56% of their 3’s. and 100% of their FT’s. Wisconsin shot and play terribly in the game and that win has now pushed Michigan into the overvalued category in our opinion. We fully expect a come back to earth, letdown game for the Wolverines. Minnesota’s home / road dichotomy is as drastic as any in the nation. They stink on the road. They are 0-4 on the road getting beat by double digits in each. That includes an 82-57 loss @ Michigan just 10 days ago. Can you say quick revenge? At home the Gophers are 10-0 with wins over top tier Big 10 teams Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State, and a win over the top team in the A10 conference St Louis. Minnesota is on the opposite end of the spectrum strength of schedule wise having faced the toughest slate in the Big 10 to date including games vs Iowa (twice), Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, and Ohio State. This will be their 7th straight game vs a ranked opponent. They are also off 2 straight losses (both on the road) and they’ve had since last Sunday to get ready for this game. In the first meeting Minnesota was a 7.5 point dog @ Michigan and now they are getting nearly the same. Last year the Gophs were favored by 2 at home in this match up and won by 2. Value is absolutely on Minnesota and we’ll take it.

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -7.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7:30 PM ET - We have waited for a spot to play on the Raptors and this is a solid one. Toronto has gotten off to a horrible start by their expectations and are coming off a 4 game West coast road trip where they went 1-3 SU. They have just 2 wins on the season after going 53-19 in the regular season a year ago. Charlotte hasn’t been a great road team going 27-48 SU the past two years, last season they had the 4th worst average loss margin in the NBA of -8.1PPG. The Hornets are in a bad scheduling situation here playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back to back after a game last night versus Dallas. This line is set up to draw Charlotte money and we won’t bite. Back the Raptors in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Utah +1.5 over Stanford, 5 PM ET *Early tip* With public money immediately flowing in on Stanford this line moved the opposite direction which grabbed our attention. Utah has some tremendous offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency numbers despite playing a brutally tough schedule. The Utes have lost four straight games, but it came against teams rated 28th or better by Kenpom. Utah lost three of those games close to UCLA by 2, Oregon by 6 and Colorado by 7-points and they got outscored from the charity strip by 16 in that one. Stanford has won 3 in a row, but they’ve been playing the bottom of the Pac 12 conference unlike Utah. The Cardinal’s two toughest games have been against Arizona who they beat by 3 and Oregon who they lost by 17. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and Utah is in a desperate situation here. Bet against the public and play on Utah here.

#661 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State +4.5 over Florida State, Wed at 6:30 PM ET - We think this NC State team is undervalued. They are 6-3 on the season but definitely better than their record. This team has only been at 100% for a few games this season as starters Hayes and Funderburk (now coming off bench) have missed a few key games. The Wolfpack are coming off 2 straight losses @ Clemson in OT and at home vs an underrated Miami team in tight game over the weekend. The Canes shot the lights out over the weekend hitting nearly 50% of their shots with NC State hitting only 38% yet the game went to the wire. Because of Covid issues, Florida State hasn’t played in over 2 weeks. Their last game was a 10 point loss @ Clemson on December 29th. Tough to not play a game for that long and come back at an optimum level. Despite their 6-3 record, the Wolfpack are +12 PPG on the season while the 5-2 Seminoles are +8 PPG with a very similar strength of schedule. FSU head coach Leonard Hamilton was blunt about the interruption, "In practice we very seldom, ever, ever have a starting lineup together. We never practice who starts together. We practice different lineups and different groups of guys every day. ... Because we have different mixtures. Everybody's got to blend in." FSU won both games last year in tight fashion with margins of 5 & 6 points giving a little extra motivation to the Wolfpack. We think NC State has a great shot to win this one and we’re getting a decent cushion with the pointspread here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +1 over Denver Nuggets, 7:30 PM ET - The Nets are off back-to-back losses and look to bounce back at home over Denver. Brooklyn had to play a few games without Kevin Durant who was in Covid protocols, then were without Kyrie Irving for a few games. No Irving here but they do have KD who scored 36-points in their most recent home loss to OKC. Brooklyn is currently in elite company in the NBA with a top 11 efficiency rating in both offense and defense with only the Bucks as the other team that can make that claim. Denver has the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the league, but their defense ranks near the bottom on the NBA at 25th in defensive efficiency. Denver is 4-1 SU their last five games but two of those wins came over a bad Minnesota team, Dallas and Philly were both short-handed with Covid issues and the Knicks are really struggling right now. The current perception is the Nuggets are playing well but that’s a byproduct of weak competition. The Nets are off a pair of losses and motivated at home. Nuggets have not covered as a dog in four straight.

#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech +2 over Duke, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Duke has been shaky at best all season long with a 6-2 record and their only top 100 win coming vs Notre Dame. The Devils have played only one road game all season and that was over 3 weeks ago. They have played only 2 games since December 16th due to some covid issues. In their 2 games since December 16th they had to come from 16 points down at home to beat a 2-9 Boston College team by 1 points. Duke also beat Wake Forest at home by 11 but the game was much closer than that as the game was tied midway through the 2nd half and they didn’t take their first 10+ point lead until 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. This is a very young team that isn’t built to win games on the road. They rarely get to the FT line (13% of their points from the line – 327th nationally) and they’re poor at defending the arc. Va Tech is 9-2 on the season and their only loss since December 8th was a 2 point loss @ Louisville. They are very solid 3-point shooting team hitting 36% which matches up very nicely vs this Duke defense. The Hokies have covered 5 of their last 6 and remain very underrated in our opinion. This Duke team is nowhere near as good as their teams yet they are still getting the respect because of their name. They are just 1-6 ATS their last 7 games and we’re getting the better team at home around a pick-em here. Take Virginia Tech.

ASA top play on 10* Loyola Chicago -6.5 over Indiana State, 7PM ET - Loyola Chicago was thrown a “Covid-curveball” when they were scheduled to play Missouri Valley leader Drake this past weekend but instead faced Indiana State. Because of a Covid outbreak on Drakes roster the Ramblers were instead forced to change last minute and travel to play Indiana State. In an obvious let down situation Loyola lost to the Sycamores by 5-points with the big difference in the game being a +12 margin of made free throws for Indiana State. Loyola was projected to be one of the best teams in the MVC this season while Indiana State was expected to finish near the bottom. In fact, the Ramblers rate higher in our power ratings than undefeated Drake, who beat Indiana State on their home court by 18 and 7-points. Prior to the upset in the game Sunday to Indiana State, the Ramblers two previous losses were to quality foes Richmond and Wisconsin. Loyola is the most efficient offense in the Missouri Valley and 2nd in defensive efficiency. Indiana State is the 4th worst in OEFF, 6th worst in DEFF. The Ramblers get payback here after the upset Sunday.

ASA play on 8* DePaul +5.5 over UConn, 6PM ET - We like the spot here and the number as UConn recently beat DePaul as an 8-point home favorite. UConn shot 49% from the field and 41% from beyond the arc while DePaul had a very poor shooting night at 38% overall and 24% from three. The Huskies also got a huge night from guard Bouknight (potential Big East player of the year) who scored 20-points, grabbed 4 rebounds and handed out 3 assists. Bouknight is doubtful here or at the minimum will not be 100% after suffering a hyper-extended elbow recently. We are betting UConn doesn’t shoot nearly as well here, playing their 3rd straight road game, and having season averages of 43.7FG% overall and 36.5% 3-point percentage which are well below what they shot in the first meeting with the Demons. On the other hand we expect DePaul to shoot closer to their regular season averages of 46.9% and 37.8% (3pt). Take the revenge minded home dog here.

#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -5.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers are a perennial playoff team having made the post-season in 8 of Mike Tomlin’s 14 years as head coach. They know what the playoffs are all about. That gives them a big advantage here over a Cleveland team that is in the post-season for the first time in 18 years. The playoffs are a different animal. That’s why inexperienced QB’s tend to struggle at this time of year. In fact, QB’s making their first playoff appearance (Mayfield) are 14-36 ATS. It’s just really tough to prepare for something you don’t know or you’ve never been a part of. These two met last week in Cleveland and the Browns were in a must win and still barely won the game 24-22. That was with Pittsburgh sitting QB Roethlisberger and a number of other starters including most of their key defensive players. Pittsburgh STILL outgained Cleveland for the game and on a YPP basis with Mason Rudolph at QB. Their other meeting this year when both teams were at full strength, the Steelers won 38-7. Not only is Cleveland new to this experience, they’ve been dealing with plenty of distractions this week. Their facilities have been closed all week due to Covid. They’ve been preparing for this game virtually. On top of that their head coach Stefanski, who’s led their resurgent offense, won’t be at this game due to Covid. A number of players are potentially out as well for the same reason. A less than ideal situation leading into a playoff game to say least. Cleveland’s offense doesn’t match up well in this game. The Steelers have the #1 defense in the league when it comes to pressuring the QB. Mayfield stinks when under pressure (43% completion rate). Pitt sacked him 8 times in the 2 meeting and in the game @ Pittsburgh they held Mayfield to his lowest QBR of the season. The Browns are the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential on the season and they have lost 17 straight here in Pittsburgh. We’ll lay it and say the Steelers win by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -3 over Phoenix Suns, 7 PM ET - Two of the best defenses square off here when Phoenix rolls into Indianapolis for a game against the Pacers. Indiana has a scheduling advantage with the Suns come off a game last night in Detroit while the Pacers are rested. This will also be the Suns 3rd game in four days. Early on the Suns led the league in defensive efficiency but they’ve been steadily dropping in that category as the season has gone on. Indiana on the other hand has not and they can defend every position with the 7th best defensive efficiency in the NBA. The Pacers can also shoot it with the 2nd best overall FG% offense in the NBA at 49%. Indiana is 3-0-1 ATS their last four home games against a team with a winning road record and they catch the Suns in a favorable situation.

#616 ASA CBB PLAY ON 8* Rutgers -3 over Ohio State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We’ve been waiting for this rematch for a few weeks now. These two Big 10 programs met just before Xmas @ Ohio State and the Buckeyes won 80-68. We watched that game closely and the Scarlet Knights dominated for about 80% of the game. They took their first lead with just over 15 minutes remaining in the game and did not relinquish that lead until just over 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. They led by 16 with less with 15 minutes remaining and still up by 10 with just over 10 minutes remaining. One of their top players, Jacob Young, was injured midway through the 2nd half and did not return and he is back at 100%. They were outscored by 18 points over the last 8 minutes to make it look like they got smoked and that was not the case. Rutgers is now 3-3 in conference play and this is a huge game for them. They have played the toughest slate of home games thus far in league play and they are 2-1 with wins over Illinois & Purdue and a 2 point loss vs Iowa. Illinois is currently rated as the best team the conference per KenPom and Iowa is ranked 3rd. In their loss to Iowa the Knights led for much of the game despite going 4 for 12 from the FT line making 14 fewer freebies than the Hawkeyes yet only lost by 2. They could easily be undefeated at home with wins over 2 of the top 3 teams in the Big 10. That Iowa loss was last Saturday and took the wind out of their sails as they followed that up with their worst performance of the year @ MSU. Now off 2 losses, we expect Rutgers to play great at home in this quick revenge spot. OSU has been tough at home but they are 0-3 on the road in Big 10 play with losses @ Northwestern, @ Minnesota, and @ Purdue. The Buckeyes have been a poor 3-point shooting team (last in Big 10 play) and in road games they are only hitting 40% of their shots (just 29% from 3). The Buckeyes are without starting guard CJ Walker for this game as he was injured last weekend vs Minnesota. Speaking of the Gophers, they rolled over OSU by 17 points at home last weekend and we expect Rutgers to control this game from start to finish. The host has covered 5 straight in this series and we lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -2.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks continue to compete, especially on the defensive end of the court which has been a trademark of head coach Tom Thibodeau wherever he’s been. It’s early in the season but the Knicks are 8th in defensive efficiency this season allowing just 1.062-points per possession. Last season the Knicks were 23rd in DEFF, giving up 1.130PPP. New York is holding foes to under .30% shooting from beyond the arc and below 44% from the field which both rank in the top 4 of the NBA. Oklahoma City has trouble scoring the way it is with the 30th ranked offense in terms of scoring this season at 102PPG. The Thunder don’t shoot well at 43.8% overall and 33% from the 3-point line. OKC is last in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.007PPP. Oklahoma City has the 2nd worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -8.7PPG. The Knicks have only played three home games but are 2-1 SU with impressive wins over the Bucks and Jazz and the lone loss against an elite 76ers team. The Thunder are coming off a road win over the Pelicans, but New Orleans is struggling right now so we’re not impressed. New York continue to be undervalued and we’ll buy low here.

ASA top play on 10* Wright State -11.5 over Youngstown State, 7 PM ET - We feel Wright State is the best team in the Horizon conference this season, yet they are looking up at Illinois Chicago and Cleveland State in the standings. Cleveland State is 6-0 in league play but have played three of the worst teams in the league in IUPUI, IPFW and this same Youngstown State team that Wright State plays today. Cleveland State beat this Youngstown State team by 18 and 7-points earlier this season. Wright State had ripped off 7 wins in a row before an upset loss to Oakland their last time out. After beating Oakland, the night before by 29, the Raiders lost by 10 as an 11-point chalk. We’ve said it a million times and will say it again, bet good teams off bad losses! Wright State has an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 64th and an AEO of 116th. Youngstown State is 2-4 in league play and coming off a pair of home games against UW Green Bay who might be the worst team in the Horizon. YSU beat UWGB in the first meeting by 7, then lost the next day by 10 in OT. That’s the same UWGB team Wright State beat by 14 and 13. Wright State has the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the Horizon and will exploit a Penguins team that is last in the conference in defensive efficiency allowing 1.183 points per possession. The key here is whether or not Wright State will be motivated against this lesser opponent and we know they will be off a loss in their last game AND a loss to YSU last year in the final meeting of the season.

ASA top play on 10* Murray State -2.5 over Eastern Illinois, 8:30 PM ET - Murray State was picked as one of the contenders in the Ohio Valley Conference this year but have gotten off to a 1-3 start. Two of those losses came against Austin Peay and Belmont who are currently two of the top five teams in the OVC. The most recent loss for the Racers came to Morehead State at home which broke a 25-game winning streak on their home court. Eastern Illinois is coming off a win at home which extended their home record to 3-0 this season. Closer inspection though shows those three wins came against weak competition that are not on the level as Murray State. The Panthers most recent win came by 6-points over Tennessee Tech who is one of the worst teams in the OVC. EIU struggles to defend with an efficiency rating of 220th allowing 1.011 points per possession. Their EFG% defense is also horrendous ranking 266th. The Panthers offense isn’t much better ranking 152nd in OEFF at less than 1-point per possession. The Racers are similar to the Panthers in terms of offensive efficiency but much better on the defensive end of the floor allowing .975PPP (135th). The Racers have won 41 out of their 50 regular season meetings and 19 of 27 games at Lantz Arena. Up until their loss there at the end of last season, the Racers had won five in a row and 10 of the last 12 on this court. The Racers bounce back here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35 PM ET - This is a favorable schedule situation for the Nets as the 76ers played last night making this the back end of consecutive nights. This is also the Sixers 3rd game in four nights. The Sixers have enjoyed some “home cooking” this season with just 3 road games thus far where they are 2-1 SU. Brooklyn is without Kevin Durant here, but the Nets didn’t need him in a blowout the other night of the Jazz. The Nets have some solid depth which is why they don’t need to rely solely on their two SuperStars. Philly holds the advantage on the defensive end of the court but the gap between these two teams in terms of defensive efficiency isn’t great. The Nets though enjoy a definite advantage offensively with the 5th best offensive efficiency number compared to Philadelphia’s 15th (or league average). Philly is just 15-25-1 ATS as a road favorite their last 41 games and fatigue becomes a factor tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Toronto Raptors, 9 PM ET - We don’t have a reason to believe in the Raptors turning things around anytime soon as rumors are swirling about chemistry issues within the team. Toronto has gotten off to a 1-5 SU start with their only win coming at home against the Knicks. They didn’t show up for a HUGE game against Boston the other night at home when the Celtics looked like a MASH unit and still lost by 12-points. In three road games the Raptors have been beaten by 4 at New Orleans, 7 at Philly and 5 at San Antonio. If you don’t think the Suns are for real, think again. Phoenix has gotten off to a 5-2 start with impressive home wins on their resume over Dallas and New Orleans. The Suns are coming off a home loss which will have them focused and motivated here. Phoenix is doing it with the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.045 points per possession and an offense that is ranked 10th overall in offensive efficiency. Toronto is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA right now (29th in OEFF) and their defense isn’t what it was a year ago with Ibaka and Gasol now in L.A. The numbers haven’t caught up with the Raptors yet so this is a bargain price to play against them.

ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -8 over Colorado State, 9 PM ET - San Diego State was just favored by 9-points at home against Colorado State and lost after leading by 26-points in the game. It was the largest comeback win in D1 this season and also in the last ten seasons. Now we are getting a better number with a highly motivated Aztecs team with payback on their minds. The Rams lost by 20-points to Saint Mary’s earlier this season and we have San Diego State rated significantly higher. Colorado State has played a significantly weaker schedule than SDSU and yet the Aztecs rate exponentially better in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Last season on this same court San Diego State was favored by 13-points against CSU, then this year 9-points and now we have a bargain price in this rematch. The Aztecs are 10-2 SU off a loss their last twelve and have won by an average of 15PPG. San Diego has enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage with a 32-6 SU record since 2018 with a +15.1PPG positive differential. Payback here in this quick turnaround.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -8 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 PM ET - This won’t be the last time we play against the Thunder as we just don’t feel they are going to be very good this season. The Thunder do have two road wins this season at Charlotte and Saturday in Orlando, but this is not a great spot for them. Miami is coming off a horrible offensive showing and loss in Dallas and will look to bounce back with a big home win Monday. Miami has been remarkable off a loss recently with a 28-7 SU run, +7.2PPG. The Heat were 25-7 SU last year at home with an average winning margin of +9.3PPG which was the third best differential in the NBA. The Heat have covered four straight at home as a favorite while Thunder 1-5 ATS last six on the road against a team with a winning record.

#102 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia +4 over Washington, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Washington has to win so we should be on them correct? Wrong. That’s one big mistake bettors make is just automatically taking teams that have to win. That’s actually proven to be not always a wise investment. In fact, Teams that need to win in Week 17 to get into the playoffs (or would need help with a loss) have gone 15-23 (39.5%) against the spread (ATS) when playing teams with zero incentive. The teams that have to win can often be tight and have added pressure which can negative affect on their performance vs a team that has nothing to lose. Plus, in this game, we’re not talking about a top notch team vs a crappy team. Both of these teams were alive to win the NFC East just one week ago. Philly was knocked out of contention by Dallas while Washington was losing at home to Carolina but they still control their own destiny. Who plays QB for Washington in this game? They were hoping Alex Smith would be back but he was very limited in practice at the end of the week with a calf injury. If he goes he won’t be near 100% with little mobility. If he doesn’t, it’s Taylor Heinicke who has attempted only 77 passes in his career. That’s a lot of pressure on a guy who has very little experience or a QB with a bad leg (Smith). The Eagles jumped out to a 14-3 lead @ Dallas last week but come up short. Their most recent home game was a 24-21 win over one of the best teams in the NFL, the Saints. Since taking over at QB Jalen Hurts has thrown for 850 yards & 6 TD’s to go along with 240 yards rushing. He’s given a nice spark to an offense that had scored 17 or less in 5 straight games before he took over. Eagles are 3-0 ATS as a home dog this year covering vs all playoff teams (Baltimore, New Orleans, & Seattle). Washington, on the other hand, hasn’t been a road favorite once this season and shouldn’t be here. This look ahead line last week was Philly -3 so this number has swung a full 5.5 to 6 points based on last week’s results. The Eagles were favored by 10.5 at home vs the Cowboys and 5.5 at home vs the NY Giants, the other 2 teams in contention for the NFC East. Now they are getting points from Washington? Bad line and we’ll take Philly to win this game at home. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* #840 Minnesota +1 over Ohio State, 5:30 PM ET - Good spot to play on the Gophers here as they are off a loss at Wisconsin and back at home where they are 34-8 SU since 2018. Minnesota has also won those games since 2018 by an average of 10.7PPG. The Gophers are also 19-11 SU when coming off a loss their last 30. Minnesota has played the tougher schedule than Ohio State who we feel is overrated and played a weaker schedule. The Gophers two losses this season came at two top ranked venues in Illinois and Wisconsin. Between those two losses the Gophers beat three quality foes in Saint Louis, Iowa and Michigan State. Minnesota is 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Ohio State has a pair of losses on their resume too, at Purdue and at Northwestern. The Buckeyes best win this season was at home against Rutgers. OSU has better efficiency rating but that is a byproduct of a weaker schedule. Minnesota has beaten this team two straight times and did so rather handily. Great spot to bet them here.

#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver +3 over Las Vegas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Raiders should be flat as a pancake here having been eliminated from the playoffs in excruciating fashion last weekend. They opted not to score a TD (took a knee at the 1 yard line) in order to run clock and kick what looked like the game winning FG vs Miami with just 18 seconds remaining. The Fins however moved the ball into FG range in one play (Fitzpatrick long pass + personal foul penalty) and kicked a FG to win as time expired. Devasting loss for Vegas and now they head on the road in a meaningless game. Denver has a poor home record (2-5 SU) but they’ve played a brutally tough home slate (KC, Buffalo, New Orleans, Miami, Tampa Bay, Tennessee). Their most recent game they were creamed by Buffalo who is playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. We expect them to play well here to atone for that poor performance. We were very impressed with the way the Broncos bounced back last week after that loss giving the Chargers all they could handle on the road. Denver lost 19-16 but outgained LA by 80 yards, had 7 more first downs, and topped them on the ground 133 to 89. If not for a number of dropped passes, including a few big plays and one that would have been a TD, the Broncos would have won the game. They are still playing hard and competing which is a good sign here as we don’t expect Vegas to do the same. The Raiders beat up on Denver earlier this year 37-12 but the score was a bit deceiving as the yardage was near even but the Broncs had 5 turnovers. Vegas is in a freefall. They were right square in the middle of playoff contention in mid November but have now lost 5 of their last 6 and been outgained and outrushed in 5 of those 6. Their offensive line is really banged up (starting all pro OT Brown is out) and RB Jacobs is hurting as well (only 13 carries vs Miami). Denver has a big edge defensively ranking 14th DVOA on Football Outsiders with Vegas ranking 28th. The leaky Raider defense has given up an average of 34 PPG over their last 6. Denver was +6 at home vs Buffalo, +7 vs KC, +3.5 vs Tennessee, +6 vs Tampa, and +4 vs Miami, all playoff teams. Now they are in the same range (+3 but dropping to +2.5) vs a non-playoff Raider team that very well might have packed it in for the season. Take Denver here.

#496 ASA PLAY ON Iowa State -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The Big 12 has shown themselves very well thus far with Oklahoma rolling over Florida, Oklahoma State topping Miami, and Texas crushing Colorado (WVU won as well). The Pac 12 has had just one game and that was the blowout we just mentioned. The Buffs were a near perfect 4-1 in Pac 12 play this year and they took on a depleted Texas team, with a number of starters opted out, in the Alamo Bowl and lost 55-23. Iowa State played those teams (Texas & Oklahoma) to the wire this year beating OU by 7 and Texas by 3 in the regular season and then losing to OU by 6 in the Big 12 Championship game. Their only other Big 12 loss this season was by a FG to Oklahoma State. Thus, there 2 conference losses came against bowl teams who both won their bowl games (OU in blowout fashion) by a combined 9 points (they did lose to another bowl team UL Lafayette in the season opener way back in early Sept). Their 8 Big 12 wins came by an average of +18.3 PPG. They are rolling on both sides of the ball right now. On offense the Cyclones have put up at least 435 yards of total offense in 5 of their last 6 games. They actually outgained Oklahoma in their Conference Championship loss but had 3 turnovers. They have also averaged 37 PPG during that stretch. On defense they’ve held their last 6 opponents to an average of just 17.6 PPG. While ISU was obviously disappointed to lose in the Big 12 Championship game, we’re hearing they are thrilled to be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, which is the most prestigious bowl this program has ever played in. Oregon was supposed to be the top team in the weak Pac 12 this year but that wasn’t the case. They did beat USC in the Pac 12 Championship game but the Ducks weren’t even supposed to be in that game. They backed in when Washington, the Pac 12 North Champs, weren’t able to field enough players due to a covid outbreak. Even though they beat the Trojans to win the conference, Oregon was outgained by 115 yards in that game and scored their first 2 TD’s on drives of 9 and 32 yards following USC turnovers. Two of their other three wins were vs teams that finished the season below .500. Their 2 losses were vs Oregon State (finished with a 2-5 record) and California (finished with a 1-4 record). Oregon played a weak schedule and their season stats weren’t overly impressive with a +20 YPG differential. Compare that to Iowa State, who played a much tougher schedule, and had a YPG differential of +97. ISU is better in the trenches running the ball for 192 YPG while allowing only 105 on the ground. The Cyclones are also better at the key position on the field, quarterback. ISU QB Purdy is finishing up his 3rd year as the starter and has thrown for nearly 9,000 yards and 61 TD’s. Oregon starter Shough is fairly inexperienced as this is his first year as a starter and he’s not a great passer. We also like the coaching match up here as ISU’s Campbell is FAR superior to the Ducks Cristobal. We like Iowa State to win this game by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets –4.5 over Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - Love the scheduling dynamics to play on Denver here and against Phoenix. The Suns have gotten off to a fantastic start this season at 4-1 and have picked up where they left off last season in the Bubble with an 8-0 run. But this is not an ideal situation for them as they played last night and are playing their 3rd game in four days. Not to mention they are playing in the higher altitude of Denver tonight which is never a good thing for unrested teams. The Nuggets meanwhile are home, rested AND coming off a loss in their previous game. Denver is off to a very disappointing 1-3 start this season, 2 of those losses coming at home. The Nuggets are 65-20 SU their last 85 home games with an average margin of victory of +8PPG. When facing an opponent that is unrested the Nuggets are 28-15 SU their last 43. Off a loss Denver is 44-28 their last 72 games. Denver has beaten this Suns team 5 straight and make it six in a row here.

ASA top play on 10* Arkansas Little Rock -4 over Texas Arlington, 5 PM ET - Sun Belt action tips off for both teams with UALR looking to repeat as Champions after a 15-5 conference record a year ago. The Trojans return their 7 top scorers from a year ago but have largely underachieved this season with 3 straight spread losses. But that recent trend has affected the number and we get the opportunity to buy low with UALR. In their last game the Trojans lost to Missouri State as they dressed just 8 players and had to finish the game with 4 on the floor. The players that missed that game on Dec 21 because of Covid protocols are expected back here. The Trojans have beaten UTA four straight times on this floor. Arlington returns some sophomores and juniors to this team and have some juco transplants, but they were still 7th in the Sun Belt a year ago. UTA is on a 3-game winning streak but they came against D2 schools. Arkansas Little Rock will be properly motivated here to start conference play and will hold a decisive advantage on the boards with a big front line going against a smaller lineup for UTA.

#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -9 over Ball State, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - This SJSU team has flown under the radar the entire season. They are a perfect 7-0 and are seeking their first undefeated season since 1939. Just two seasons ago this team was 1-11. They are HIGHLY motivated to close out with an undefeated season and we expect to see the Spartans at their best on Thursday. If they are at their best, this team is much better than Ball State. All 7 of SJSU’s wins this year have come by double digits including a 14 point win over a very good Boise State team in the MWC Championship game. The Spartans outgained the Broncos by 240 yards in that game! For the season they outgained their opponents by more than 100 YPG and by a full 2 yards per play (6.9 YPP offense & 4.9 YPP defense) in the much tougher MWC (compared to the MAC). QB Starkel, who played at both Arkansas & Texas A&M, was a grad transfer who led this offense with over 300 YPG passing. The Spartans have one of the most potent passing attacks in the country which is bad news for a Ball State defense that allowed 296 YPG through the air (119th nationally). The 2 best pass offenses the Cardinals faced this season were Western Michigan & Toledo and those 2 teams put up 275 yards passing & 2 TD’s and 407 yards passing & 3 TD’s in those 2 games respectively. Ball State, on the other hand, relies heavily on their running game (45 carries per game but only 3.9 YPC) and they are facing an SJSU defense that gives up only 3.3 YPC. The 2 best rushing attacks they faced this season were Air Force (2nd nationally) & San Diego State (32nd nationally). They held the Falcons to 206 yards rushing (100 yards below their average) and the Aztecs to 101 yards rushing (99 yards below their average). Ball State ranks 53rd nationally running the ball and they’ll be without, by far, their best RB here (Caleb Huntley) who opted out after rushing for just under 3,000 yards in his career. This Spartan defense did not allow more than 24 points in a game this season and we like them to really slow down this Ball State attack. The Cards already won their “Super Bowl” so to speak by beating Buffalo in the MAC Championship game despite getting outgained 7.0 YPP to 5.5 YPP. Ball State was outgained 6.1 YPP to 5.8 YPP on the season despite playing an easier schedule than San Jose who was +2.0 YPP as we mentioned above. The MAC has been historically bad in bowl games with an 18-35-2 ATS record their last 55 as bowl underdogs. Ball State is also historically bad in bowl games going 0-7 SU lifetime with 5 of those 7 losses coming by at least 9 points. This game is being played out west in Arizona which is a definite positive for San Jose State. The Cardinal players are just happy to get away from the cold and snow in this vacation type game. We’ll lay the points with San Jose State as we expect the Spartans to roll in this game.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -6.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET We like to bet on elite teams off a bad loss which is the case in this setting Wednesday as Brooklyn is off a pair of losses and face an unbeaten Hawks team. That 3-0 Atlanta record has kept this line in check, and we will take advantage of a soft number here. The Nets lost in Charlotte two games ago then rested Kyrie and KD in an OT loss to Memphis. The Nets with their pair of “mega-stars” are a team capable of flipping the switch on any given night and in their first two games when motivated they blew out Golden State and Boston. As we mentioned, Atlanta has gotten off to that perfect 3-0 start, but the wins have come against Detroit, Chicago and Memphis who have a combined 2-9 SU record. Yes, the Hawks have improved their roster, but this is still a team that had a negative road differential of minus-13.4PPG during the regulars season a year ago, which was the worst number in the NBA. Brooklyn gets an easy double-digit win here.

#297 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado +8.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - We know Colorado is thrilled to be in the Alamo Bowl. We’re not so sure Texas can say the same. Once again the Longhorns had much higher aspirations and fell short of their goals with a 6-3 record. They blew out a poor KSU team to end the season and might be taking this one lightly or have little interest at all. The Horns have had a number of opt outs for this game including top WR Eagles, starting LT Cosmi, starting C Kerstetter, starting DE Ossai, starting DT Graham, and starting safeties Sterns & Brown. That doesn’t sound like a team that cares all that much about this game. There is still talk about whether HC Herman is the right man for the program after underachieving during his tenure and he now has former players chiming in on his lack of coaching acumen. Just not a great overall situation to close out the season for Texas. The Buffs were a surprise this year under new head coach Dorrell. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and by all indications the players love their new head coach. They won 2 games outright as an underdog and Dorrell has been fantastic as an underdog covering 12 of his last 13 when getting points dating back to his HC days at UCLA. Their only loss this season was vs Utah in their season finale, a game Colorado actually led 21-10 in the 3rd quarter. They outgained and outrushed 4 of their 5 opponents this season. Their offense should thrive here vs a Texas defense that allowed 410 YPG and is without many of their top players as mentioned above. Even in their blowout win over KSU to close out the season, the Horns gave up 448 total yards to a Wildcat offense that ranks 106th in total offense. We’re confident that CU will stay in this game throughout and we’re getting more than a TD as a cushion. Take the points.

#296 ASA PLAY ON 8* Miami FL +1.5 over Oklahoma State, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET - We love the situation here with Miami coming off a blowout loss vs UNC to end the season while OSU steps in off a blowout win over Baylor. The Canes failed to cover that home finale vs the Heels by 39 points and the Cowboys covered their finale by 33 points. With that in mind, bowl underdogs coming off a season ending SU loss as a favorite are 25-9 ATS if playing a bowl opponent that won their season ender by at least 17 points. Miami will have plenty of motivation which is key when handicapping bowl games. On top of everything above, the Canes lost last year as a bowl favorite getting shutout by La Tech 14-0 providing an extra spark of motivation for this game. Take a listen to Miami starting safety Bubba Bolden this week, “we are coming into this game with a lot of fire, I’ll tell you that right now...We take this very personally, and after the last game’s performance, that was not the Miami way.’’ They also received a mental boost this week when star QB King (2,500 yards passing / 600 yards rushing / 22 TD’s) said he’s coming back next year. We have no doubt the Canes are fully focused for this game in which they have the travel edge with this game being played in Orlando. OSU started the season 4-0 but closed just 3-3 over their last 6 games with their 3 wins all coming vs teams that finished the season below .500. They leaned on their defense early in the season but the regressed heavily on that side of the ball down the stretch allowing 30 PPG over their last 6. Minus their final game vs Baylor (118th in total offense) this OSU defense allowed 38 PPG & 529 YPG over their final 4 (again minus Baylor). They were outgained in 4 of their final 5 games and their star RB Hubbard is not playing in this game. If not for their recent opposite end of the spectrum performances, the Canes would be favored in this game. Line value and motivation in Miami’s favor so we’ll take them to win this one.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 9 PM ET - We think the oddsmakers had the correct number when they opened the Nuggets minus 9 here but since public money has forced the line down to the current number. At the end of last season, the Denver Nuggets were being talked about as possible title contenders with Jokic and Murray playing at a very high level. The Nuggets have gotten off to an 0-2 start with an OT loss to Sacramento and then a beatdown by the Clippers who were playing with revenge from last season’s playoffs. Denver was 26-11 SU at home last season before Covid hit with an average point differential of +4.2PPG. This is not the same Houston Rockets team we saw last year. James Harden is back, but for how long? Houston’s next three best players are not on this current trip as Wall, Cousins and Gordon are home in Covid protocols. The Rockets played well in the opener against Portland but are in a bad spot here. The home team has won four straight meetings in this series by 7 or more points. Denver was 23-13 SU off a loss last season and at 0-2 they’ll play with a little more motivation here. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Michigan State -2.5 over Minnesota, 8 PM ET - Why is Michigan State favored on the road after they just lost to Wisconsin and the Gophers are off an upset win of Iowa? Not only is Minnesota coming off that huge win over the #4 Hawkeyes, but they have a date with the Wisconsin Badgers next. Granted, MSU is still a big-name opponent but they have lost two straight and we guarantee the Gophers have noticed. Michigan State is 64-23 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-11 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. These two teams are relatively even in defensive efficiency ratings but MSU has a slight advantage offensively and they’ve faced a tougher schedule. Minnesota is 3-2 SU their last five as a home dog but they can’t capture the energy from their home crowd in the current Covid setting. The favorite has covered 7-straight in this series and the Spartans in a desperate situation make it 8 in a row.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5 over San Antonio Spurs, Sunday 7 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Pelicans here as the Spurs are off a game last night with the Raptors while the Pels were home resting. San Antonio has jumped out to a 2-0 start but now face a Pelicans team off a loss in Miami and rested. The Spurs are 9-13 SU their last 22 when playing without rest. You would think the storied franchise of San Antonio would thrive as an underdog but that is not the case. Since 2018 the Spurs are 25-27-1 ATS as a dog and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.8PPG. New Orleans is an up-and-comer in the West and have several pieces in place to make a strong run at a playoff berth. It starts with Zion Williamson who was on restricted minutes last year but is a full go this season. Add in All-Star Ingram, two great perimeter defensive guards in Bledsoe and Ball and a rim protector in Adams and you have a solid foundation. The play here is New Orleans minus the points.

#475 ASA PLAY ON 10* LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking for good teams coming off bad losses and we couldn’t ask for a better spot than taking the Rams a week after losing to the Jets as a 17 point favorite. Over the last decade, there have been 10 teams that were favored by -13 or more, were above .500 at the time, and lost. Those teams bounced back to cover at an 80% rate the following week (8 of 10 covered). The Rams match up very well with the Seahawks beating them 5 of the last 6 meetings with their only loss during that stretch coming by 1 point. Seattle already has a spot in the playoffs locked up while the Rams do not. The winner of this game has the inside track to the NFC West title and we’ll take the team that’s better on both sides of the ball. LA has a huge edge defensively as they rate as the top defense in the NFL (total defense & YPP defense) and also rank as the #4 DVOA defense on Football Outsiders. Seattle ranks 25th in total defense and 20th in DVOA defense. There has been some chatter about Seattle’s defense improving over the last month which it has if you look at straight numbers. However, their last 4 opponents have been Eagles, Giants, Jets, and Redskins and all 4 of those teams rank 22nd or lower in total offense with the last 3 listed ranking 29th, 31st, and 32nd. The fact is Seattle struggled in 3 of those 4 games vs inferior opponents going to the wire in their tight wins over the Eagles and Redskins and in their home loss to the Giants. Their games vs the Giants and Redskins came vs back up QB’s McCoy and Haskins as well. The Rams & Seahawks have played nearly identical schedules being the same division and LA is +97 YPG on the season while Seattle is -6 YPG. LA has been an underdog 3 times and won 2 of those games outright with their lone loss in that spot coming by 3 points @ Buffalo. In their last 3 road games the Rams have outgained the Cardinals by 231 yards, outgained Tampa by 162 yards, and outgained Miami by 326 yards. We’ll take the better team in a must win spot here.

ASA top play on 10* Monmouth -5 over Canisius, 2 PM ET - Great spot to play on Monmouth and fade Canisius in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Last season these two teams met twice with Monmouth winning by 19 on this floor and 14 at Canisius. It clearly wasn’t a fluke Monmouth won twice considering they shot 49 and 50 percent in the two games and held Canisius to just 40% shooting in both contests. Last season Monmouth was the 3rd most efficient offense in the MAAC and 2nd best in defensive efficiency. Canisius was 7th in OEFF, 8th in DEFF. The Monmouth Hawks just split a pair of games with St Peters who finished second in the conference a year ago. Both games against St Pete’s went down to the wire and were decided by just 2-points. The Golden Griffins of Canisius split a pair of games with Marist to start the season and Marist was 7-23 SU last season and last in the conference. This is a bargain price and we’ll jump on the Hawks!

#473 ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta +11 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Falcons haven’t been a double-digit dog this season. In fact, the largest spread the Falcons have faced this season is +6-points against Tampa Bay last week. They lost to the Bucs by 4-points in a game which most key statistics were relatively even. Going back further we find the Falcons have been double-digit dogs just twice in their last 47 games. Now you might be saying they are facing the defending Super Bowl Champs in the Chiefs who are clearly the best offensive team in the NFL and their overall defensive numbers are bad. If you look at raw data you see the Falcons rank 28th in yards allowed per game, 31st in passing defense and 18th in points allowed per game BUT when you factor in their strength of schedule, they have the 12th best DVOA numbers in the NFL. Despite being 4-10 SU the Falcons have an average point differential of +0.1PPG which is in the top half of the NFL and ranks better than 10-4 Cleveland, 7-7 Chicago, 6-8 New England to name a few. Kansas City is 13-1 SU on the season and their average Margin of Victory is +8.9PPG which clearly doesn’t get a cover here. Kansas City has a defensive DVOA that ranks 17th in the NFL and the Falcons offense that is loaded with weapons can take advantage of this average unit. Grab the points with Atlanta.

ASA top play on 10*: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET The Pacers have enough talent on their roster to be a threat in the East this season, especially with Oladipo back to full strength. The Pacers were just a -7.5-point favorite at home over the Knicks who aren’t much worse than this Bulls team and Indy beat New York by 14. The Bulls lost their season opener to the Hawks by 20, who expect to be better this season, but still aren’t at the Pacers level. Last season the Bulls were 27th in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.067 points per possession while Indiana was 19th at 1.100PPP. Chicago was in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency last season ranking 12th but Indiana was even better yet at 6th. Chicago had a negative point differential of -3.1PPG overall last season which was one of the 8 worst numbers in the league. Indiana beat the Bulls 4 times last season, all by more than this spread and three of which were by 9+ points. Lay the short number with the Pacers.

ASA play on 8* Gonzaga -8 over Virginia, 4PM ET The Zags are the best team in college basketball, and they’ve proven it against some elite competition this season with wins over Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa and even a solid Auburn team. Virginia can’t say the same thing as their best win was in OT over an average MAC team Kent State. We know Tony Bennett coached teams are going to play fantastic defense, but we also know they’ll struggle to score. The Cavaliers best offensive option is Sam Hauser but they lack scoring beyond him. Last season the Cavs had the #1 ranked defensive efficiency rating but were 234th in OEFF. Gonzaga though does it on both ends of the court with an OEFF rating of 1.189PPP this season (2nd) and a DEFF rating of .895PPP (14th). Last season the Zags were the #1 ranked offensive team in the nation and 43rd defensively. Virginia just can’t keep pace offensively here and it ends up being a double-digit win by Gonzaga.

#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -3.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Conference USA has proven to be a dud on the bowls thus far. They are currently 0-4 getting outscored by a whopping 85 points in those 4 games. When the Sun Belt has faced off vs CUSA in the bowl games thus far, the Belt is 2-0 with Georgia Southern beating La Tech 38-3 & App State beating North Texas 56-28. That’s relevant because we have Georgia State (from the Sun Belt) facing Western Kentucky (from CUSA) in this game. Western Kentucky has one of the worst offenses in college football ranking 120th in total offense, 111th in passing offense, 99th in rushing offense, and 115th in scoring. There’s been some chatter about their offense coming to life in easy wins over Charlotte & FIU, who have a 2-9 combined record, but what looks like a scoring outburst from the Hilltoppers wasn’t so much as they scored 4 defensive TD’s in those 2 games combined. The fact is, this team has scored a grand total of 19 offensive TD’s in 11 games this year. That’s it. They are facing a Georgia State team that averaged 33 PPG on the season and WKY’s highest offensive output the entire season was just 24 points (minus defensive TD’s). While Western Kentucky’s defense has solid numbers on the year, this is a bad match up for them. The strength of their defense is on the back end as they defend the pass very well. Their rush defense allows 166 YPG and they are facing a GSU offense that loves to run (43 carries per game for 190 yards). The Georgia State defensive numbers aren’t great but they really played well down the stretch allowing just 18 PPG over their last 3 games which included match ups with App State (GSU lost 17-13) and Georgia Southern (State won 30-24) who both won their bowl games already in blowout fashion. State is solid vs the run which matches up well with a WKY that likes to run (but isn’t great at it averaging 3.9 YPC) but it not a good passing team. Georgia State has already proven to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt taking App State & Louisiana, the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the league, to the wire in tight losses and beating Georgia Southern. The only team they weren’t competitive with was Coastal Carolina who is ranked 12th in the country with an 11-0 record. As we mentioned the Sun Belt has walloped CUSA in their 2 meetings thus far and we have no reason to believe Georgia State can’t cover this small number on Saturday.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, Friday 5PM ET Let’s be up front on this. Our computer analytics don’t have a lot of data on this game considering Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are taking the court together for just the second time this season. We can still accurately predict this game based on both teams’ openers though. With 30+ years’ experience handicapping the NBA we know a good team when we see one. In fact, we predicted the Nets to win it all in 2021. The young Nets played extremely well in the Bubble last season with several breakout players stepping up into bigger roles. Even without Durant and Kyrie this team was going to be a playoff team this season. Brooklyn beat this same Celtics team twice last year without KD or Kyrie. Brooklyn had 20 turnovers in their games against Golden State and still won by 26-points. We expect them to clean that part of their game up here against a Celtics team they would love to send a message to early in the season. Boston is off a HUGE win over the Bucks with Tatum banking in a 3-pointer with .04 seconds left in the game. The Celtics have depth concerns already and will be without Kemba Walker here. Last season the Nets were 15-21 SU on the road with an average road differential of minus -2.9PPG (again without KD, Kyrie). This game will have a little extra meaning for Kyrie (former Celtic) and the Nets who are considered the Celtics “little brother” in the East. The oddsmaker clearly have bought into the Nets as this line is nearly the same as the Bucks number in their first game against Boston.

ASA top play on 10* Michigan State +1.5 over Wisconsin, Friday, 12:30PM ET - You couldn’t ask for a better “play on” situation with Michigan State in this contest. The Spartans are off a tough road loss at Northwestern and played as poorly as I’ve ever seen a Tom Izzo team play. In fact, Izzo publicly shamed his team after the game for the horrendous performance. Michigan State is 64-22 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-10 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. MSU has been a home underdog JUST 3 times in the last 20 years and you can bet this is a motivating factor. Granted, we can’t ignore the Badgers are 15-6 SU since 2015 as an away favorite but this is not a familiar situation against this level of competition. In fact, the Badgers were favored by 4.5 at Marquette and lost earlier this year. Last season Badgers were a 5-point home underdog to MSU and won 64-63 which makes this line off even more. Prior to last year, the Spartans had won 8 straight in this series. The Michigan State loss to Northwestern doesn’t look as bad now that the Wildcats just won on the road against a good Indiana team. Wisconsin has been at home for most of the start of the season and face a really tough road game here. MSU is 76-9 SU their last 85 at home and won those games by an average of 19PPG. Take Michigan State!

ASA top play on 10* Illinois -4 at Penn State, 6:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the opportunity to bet on an elite team such as Illinois coming off a loss. The Illini lost last time out at Rutgers by 3-points but were outscored at the free throw line by 14-points. Illinois shot well for the game by hitting 54% from the field, 60% from Downtown. Illinois has the 7th best offensive efficiency rating in college hoops at 1.147 points per possession and rank 37th in defensive efficiency allowing just .922PPP. Penn State is also coming off a loss at Michigan, but they were not expected to win as a 7-point dog. The Nittany Lions also have top 40 ratings in both offensive and defensive efficiency which is why the line on this game is as low as it is. The two previous times the Illini have been beaten this season they bounced back with blowout wins over Duke and Minnesota. Illinois will get a double-digit win here.

#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Southern -6 over Louisiana Tech, Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET - We can take quite a bit from Monday’s bowl match up between App State & North Texas and apply it to this game. App State dominated that game rushing for over 500 yards in a 56-28 win. What does that have to do with this game? Well Georgia Southern plays in Sun Belt along with App State and La Tech plays in CUSA along with North Texas. Southern faced App State on the road in the final game of the regular season and gave them all they could handle. They actually led in the 4th quarter and were outgained by only 32 yards. La Tech played North Texas on December 3rd and while they won by 11 points, the Bulldogs were outgained both on a YPP and YPG basis. That’s the same UNT team that App State outgained 11.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP on Monday. UNT ran 95 offensive snaps to just 56 for App State and STILL lost by 4 TD’s. Ga Southern runs a unique triple option scheme on offense that is tough to prepare for. The Eagles rank 7th nationally in rushing at 262 YPG. La Tech is not a strong run defense ranking 88th so GSU should control the line of scrimmage here. The Eagles starting QB Werts was out the last 2 games, including their down to the wire loss @ App State, but has been practicing a most likely will play here. Even if not, the starter will be senior Moseley who has plenty of experience in this offense. Speaking of offense, La Tech is a wreck on that side of the ball. They rank 113th nationally in total offense and they will be without their starting QB Anthony here who was lost to a season ending injury in their regular season finale. His back up Allen only attempted 97 passes this season and this team can’t run the ball (97 YPG rushing) which will put more pressure on the QB to make plays. Tech has a 5-4 record on the season but they were outgained on a YPP basis in every game this year (minus Houston Baptist). They average only 4.1 YPP in their 8 games vs FBS opponents and will struggle to keep up here. Georgia Southern wins the trenches on both sides of the ball here and a team that can do that normally comes out on top. Lay it with Georgia Southern.

ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -2.5 over St Mary, CA 9 PM ET - Great situation here with a very good San Diego State team coming off a loss to another solid team in BYU. The Aztecs have played one of the tougher schedules to date with quality wins over UCLA, Pepperdine and Arizona State. San Diego State is the 54th rated offensive efficiency unit in college hoops averaging 1.080 points per possession and a defense that gives up just .910PPP which is 26th best. St Mary’s is obviously a quality team this season with an 8-1 SU record but their strength of schedule of 185 doesn’t compare with SDSU. San Diego State was 30-2 last season and have 70% of their roster intact. Off their loss the Aztecs rebound here with a win.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* App State -21 over North Texas, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - App State is the FAR superior team here and they are motivated. This is a senior laden squad that is looking for their 5th straight bowl win. The seniors have addressed the team wanting to make sure they go 4-0 in their careers in bowl games. Football Outsiders has App State is ranked as 28th best team and UNT 122nd (out of 130). Our numbers concur with that. App State is by far the best team North Texas has played this season. SMU is next best ranked 44th and they beat UNT by 30. The Mean Green also lost to the 95th ranked team (UTSA) by 32 and the 116th ranked team (Charlotte) by 28. North Texas had one of the better offenses in the country this year, however they played a horrible slate of defenses. App State will be by far the best defense they’ve faced this year. They will also be short handed as their #1 offensive weapon, WR Darden who accounted for nearly half of their receiving yards this season and scored 19 TD’s, tops in the nation. They will also be minus one of their 2 QB’s which is significant as they’ve rotated throughout the year and their missing QB, Aune, is their best passer. UNT horrible defensively especially vs the run (243 rushing YPG allowed) and App St a very good running team (243 rushing YPG). They give up 41 PPG on the season. They have allowed at least 40 points vs 6 of their 8 FBS opponents this season. They won’t stop App State in this game. With their offense not a full strength and facing the best defense they’ve seen, we don’t expect UNT to put up a ton of points here. While App State is going for their 6th straight bowl win, the Mean Green are 1-5 their last 6 bowl appearances and their most recent post-season appearance was a 52-13 loss in the 2018 New Mexico Bowl. This one has blowout potential.

#353 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England +1.5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Pats are off a 24-3 loss @ LA Rams and they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game as that was on a Thursday.  Give Bill Belichick extra time to prepare his defense and you’re usually going to get a great scheme and effort.  Give him extra time to prepare facing a rookie QB and then watch out.  In his New England career, Belichick has faced 30 rookie QB’s.  His record in those games is 25-5 SU. The last 11 times he’s faced a rookie QB for the very first time, he’s 11-0 SU in those games.  This will be the first time he faces Miami QB Tagovailoa.  Two weeks ago New England was in a similar spot as a small road dog vs everyone’s rookie of the year QB Herbert for the Chargers.  What happened in that game?  Patriots won 45-0 holding Herbert to 0 TD’s and under a 50% completion rate with 2 picks.  Miami is coming off what looks like a close battle with KC last week as they lost 33-27 picking up the tight cover as 7-point underdogs.  The truth is, they were down 30-10 entering the 4th quarter and they were outgained 7.3 YPP to 4.8 YPP.  The 2 games prior to last week the Fins played the Jets & Bengals, the 2 worst teams in the NFL (Miami won both).  Since Tagovailoa took over, the Dolphins are 4-2 in his starts but they’ve been lucky to get to that mark as they’ve been dominated statistically.  In fact, if we throw out their game vs the Bengals (he didn’t start or play vs the Jets), in the other 5 games Miami has been outgained by 766 total yards.  We expect the NE defense to have lots of success here.  Offensively they should move the ball as well.  This is a bad match up for the Miami defense.  Their weakness is definitely stopping the run as they rank 21st in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 26th in YPC allowed.  Facing a New England offense that runs the ball more than any other team with Newton at QB and ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing is not ideal for the Fins.  They’ve faced only two other top 10 rushing team this year in the Cardinals & Rams.  Arizona rushed for 178 yards on nearly 5 YPC and the Rams put up 131 yards rushing on 4.5 YPC.  Lastly, road underdogs of 6 points or less this season in games expected to be low scoring (total set at 45 or less) are 15-1 ATS.  We like New England to win this game.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina +8 over Green Bay, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET

The Panthers are much better than their 4-9 record.  For the season they are just -9 YPG and they actually outgain their opponents on a YPP basis (+0.1).  Those are normally the numbers of a .500 type team.  They have played a number of close games with 7 of their 9 losses coming by one score (8 points) which would get them a cover here at +8.5 or +9.  The Panthers are cashing at a 70% rate as a dog this season (7-3 ATS) and we think they’ll keep this one within a TD.  They get top WR Moore back in the line up and we love taking NFL dogs that can score points and Carolina can do that.  They are averaging 26 PPG when Bridgewater starts at QB and they should be able to put up points vs this Green Bay defense that is OK, but not great by any means.  The Packers have allowed at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games and the only offense that didn’t put up points over the last month vs this defense was Philly who has been a wreck on that side of the ball.  Green Bay clinched the NFC North last week with a win over Detroit so while they are still fighting for the #1 seed, we wouldn’t be surprised if they weren’t at the top of their game here.  Bridgewater is an amazing 18-2 ATS as an underdog in non-division games and we like him to get another cover on Saturday night.  Since their road opener @ Tampa, the Panthers have covered 5 straight road games including a 3 point loss @ New Orleans and a 2-point loss @ KC, two of the top teams in the NFL.  This one goes to the wire and we’ll take the points.

#214 ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State -15 over Illinois, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET

Two teams definitely headed in opposite directions here.  PSU has saved their season after starting 0-5 they have now rebounded to win 3 straight.  Word out of Happy Valley is they are now having fun and excited to be playing and you can see it in their performance.  Illinois, on the other hand, just got trounced by their in-state rival Northwestern and fired their coach this week.  Now they have to go on the road and try to muster up the energy to play in a meaningless game with a lame duck interim coach.  This is a very tough spot for the Illini.  The Illinois defense is bad ranking dead last in the Big 10 in total defense, 13th in rush defense, and their pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete 70% of their passes, the worst in the league.  Last Saturday they allowed Northwestern to roll up 411 yards rushing.  The Cats aren’t a great running team as they were averaging only 3.1 YPC entering last week.  PSU’s offense has come alive during their 3 game winning streak averaging 30 PPG over those 3 and now they face the worst defense they’ve seen this year.  The Nittany Lions are much better than their record.  They were a top 10 team to start the season.  They’ve outgained every team this year with the exception of Ohio State & Iowa.  This team is 3-5 but they rank 2nd in the Big 10 in total offense and 4th in total defense.  They can be vulnerable at times defending the pass, however Illinois is the worst passing team in the conference both on a YPG basis (180 YPG) and on a completion percentage basis (just 48%).  On top of that, their best WR opted out this week and won’t play in this game.  The records here are similar but there is really a pretty wide gap between these two.  ON the season PSU has a +76 YPG differential and Illinois is -91 YPG.  Just comparing these two alone, PSU is +51 YPG on offense and +116 YPG defensively.  If Illinois gets down in this game, which we feel they will, we have a feeling this could get ugly.   

#205 ASA PLAY ON 8* Air Force -2.5 over Army, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET

The situation heavily favors Air Force here.  On top of that, they are the better team despite the records.  Air Force was at home last weekend preparing for this rivalry while Army was playing their biggest rival, Navy last Saturday.  It has to be a weird situation playing a game the week following Navy as that never happens.  Those 2 always play in the final regular season college football game each year.  Army won 15-0 but it was far from impressive.  They had just 8 first downs and 162 total yards in the win.  Air Force played Navy earlier this season and beat them 40-7 outgaining them by 170 yards.  We understand that doesn’t always correlate but that was their only common opponent and AF was far superior in that comparison.  Air Force is 3-2 on the year with their 2 losses coming at the hands of Boise State & San Jose State who have a combined 12-1 record.  They actually outgained Boise and SJSU had just 3 more total yards in their meeting with the Falcons.  Army is 8-2 on the year but they’ve played a brutally easy schedule including 3 FCS teams.  There is a reason that a 3-2 team is favored over an 8-2 team on the road.  Both of these teams obviously run the ball as much as anyone in the country.  Air Force is simply better at it on both sides of the ball.  On offense they put up 336 YPG on 5.9 YPC while Army averages 280 YPG rushing on 4.8 YPC.  Defensively the numbers are closer but AF still has the advantage vs the run.  The Falcons have topped 400 yards of offense in every game but 1 this year.  Army topped 400 yards of offense just twice in 10 games and those were against Abilene Christian (throw that out) and UL Monroe, whose defense ranks 122nd nationally vs the run.  AF has simply dominated this series with a 19-4 SU record since 1987, 17-6 ATS.  They’ve also covered 10 of the last 11 times they’ve traveled to Army.  This is a small number to lay in our opinion.  Air Force is the side.

ASA play on 8*: Oklahoma -5.5 over Iowa State, 12 PM ET

We are betting the number here and taking the dominant Sooners in this Big 12 Championship game. Earlier this season OU was favored by a touchdown at Iowa State and now laying less than that on a neutral field. This number should be 10-points at a minimum and our power ratings has Oklahoma favored by 12-points. Both teams come into this game playing well with ISU winning five straight, OU six W’s in a row. Examining the yards per play numbers for both teams we find they are relatively equal with Oklahoma holding a slight edge in both offensive and defensive yards per play. Looking at two common opponents (Baylor and Oklahoma State) we find Oklahoma was much bigger favorites in both games and had dominating wins (+41 total points) while ISU lost to Okie State by 3-points and barely beat Baylor by 7 (+4 total point differential). Iowa State is very well coached and has a solid roster but are in unfamiliar territory here while Oklahoma has been here, done that. The Sooners have dominated the Big 12 with a 83-18 winning record dating back to 2010 and they’ve won those games by an average margin of 15PPG. Lay it with the Oklahoma here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon +3.5 over USC, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a classic underrated vs overrated spot in our opinion.  Entering the season our research told us that Oregon was the best team in the Pac 12.  We weren’t the only ones who shared that opinion as many other handicappers we respect felt the same way.  Oregon lost 2 games along the way to their current 3-2 record.  Both games were tight losses by 4 & 3 points and the Ducks had the ball late in the 4th quarter in each with a chance to win.  What would this line be if Oregon had one both of those game which they certainly could have?  In their most recent 21-17 loss @ Cal, the Ducks outgained the Bears by nearly 100 yards and had the ball in Cal territory in 3 of their last 4 possessions with a shot to win.  Those possessions ended in 2 fumbles and a shut out on downs at the Bear 18 yard line.  Speaking of fumbles, that has been a problem for the Ducks as they are -11 on the season, in just 5 games yet the STILL have a winning record.  The Trojans are the exact opposite for us.  They are very solid, but not as good as their 5-0 record.  They’ve had to make 3 fourth quarter comebacks to get to their 5 wins.  Last week vs arch rival UCLA, they trailed by 18 points made another late comeback scoring a TD with 16 seconds remaining in the game to win by 5.  As long as Oregon doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch, we think USC’s luck runs out here.  In fact, of the Ducks can keep this TO margin even, we have no doubt they’ll win this game.  For the season the 3-2 Ducks are +47 YPG and +1.6 YPP.  USC, vs a very similar schedule with 2 common opponents, is +35 YPG and only +0.1 YPP.  Speaking of those common opponents this is where we see the value in this line with Oregon as a dog.  They both played UCLA with Oregon favored by 18.5 in that game at home and USC favored by 3 at home.  They both played Washington State with Oregon favored by 10.5 on the road and USC favored by 11 at home.  Should Oregon actually be favored in this game.  We wouldn’t disagree if that was the case.  Take Oregon to win the Pac 12 Championship on Friday Night.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers +3 over Las Vegas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Vegas is absolutely heading in the wrong direction.  They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and their last 3 games have been downright atrocious.  Three weeks ago they traveled to Atlanta to play a Falcons team that was 4-7 at the time.  The Raiders were dominated 43-6.  A week after that they trailed the winless Jets with just seconds remaining but connected on a hail mary to win by 3.  The LV defense allowed a terrible Jet offense to average 6.3 YPP in that game.  That’s a NY offense that ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 4.7 YPP on the season.  Last week in a must win game at home, the Raiders were again dominated losing 44-27 to the Colts.  The defense was again shredded for 7.7 YPP.  Now that already poor defense will be without 4 starters on Thursday night.  The Chargers have a poor record but at least they’ve been competitive which is more than we can say as of late for the Raiders.  With the exception of their no show a few weeks ago vs New England, seven of their eight other losses have come by one score (8 points or less).  They have some momentum coming off a home win vs the Falcons, the same team that walloped the Raiders 43-6 a few weeks ago as we mentioned above.  Being in the same division these two have played a very similar schedule.  Vs the schedule, the Chargers are +46 YPG on the season while Las Vegas is -15 YPG.  In the first meeting in November, Las Vegas won 31-26 however they were -10 first downs and -120 total yards.  LA looks like they’ll be the much healthier team here as WR’s Allen & Williams along with RB Ekeler all practiced this week despite being listed as questionable.  The dog is 17-6 ATS in this AFC West rivalry and there is no way we’re laying points with the Raiders the way they are playing right now.  Chargers are the side.

ASA top play on 10* Nevada -3.5 over San Diego, 9 PM ET - We feel this is a generous number by the oddsmakers and will gladly side with the Wolfpack in this situation. Nevada was just favored by 1-point at Grand Canyon who is MUCH better than San Diego and lost by 10-points. Nevada is rebuilding this season with several new faces but there seems to be some continuity building on the offensive end of the floor where they have shot over 50% the last two contests. San Diego is going to struggle to score here with an offense that made just 31% of their field goal attempts in their opener against UCLA. That number is not an aberration though as the Toreros were putrid on offense a year ago ranking 315th in offensive efficiency at .944 points per possession. San Diego had one of the worst effective field goal percentages in the nation last season at 45.9%, they hit just 30.7% of their 3-pointers and 45.8% from inside the arc, which are again some of the worst statistics in college hoops a season ago. San Diego closed last season with a 2-15 SU record and we do not see them keeping pace with a Nevada team that is much better offensively (1.017PPP) and coming off a loss.

#151 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -8 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not sure how Detroit stops the Packers in this game.  Their defense ranks dead last in DVOA (Football Outsiders), 31st in scoring allowing 30 PPG, and 28th in YPP allowed.  Their pass defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL (29th in yards per pass attempt allowed) and they put no pressure on the QB (27th in sack percentage).  That’s a terrible recipe vs Aaron Rodgers and this red hot offense.  The Packers have scored 31, 41, and 30 points their last 3 games vs solid defenses (Indy, Chicago, and Philly).  What will they do this Sunday when they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL?  If the first meeting is any indication, it will be ugly.  The Packers put up 42 points in that game on nearly 500 total yards.  Detroit’s defense has given up 71 points in just the last 2 weeks including 30 points to Chicago.  Interim head coach Darrell Bevell led the Lions to a win last week at Chicago, but let’s face it there was some serious luck involved.  They were down 30-20 with less than 3:00 minutes remaining in the game and Chicago had the ball and a 10 point lead.  The conditions for offense in the dome will be perfect and Green Bay is averaging 37 PPG this season in the dome and many of those games are facing defenses a lot better than this Detroit team (New Orleans & Indy).  GB is going to score a vast majority of their possessions and the Detroit offense is going to have to keep up.  Matthew Stafford still has a bad throwing hand, his top RB Swift is most likely out again, and his top WR Golladay remains out.  Detroit has a grand total of 1 home win this season and that was a 3 point win vs Washington on a last second field goal in a game the Lions were outgained by nearly 100 yards.  Rodgers owns the NFC North with a 45-26 ATS record in his career.  A win here locks up the division and we like the Packers to roll here.  

#164 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay -7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Tampa looks like they are trending downward but we disagree.  This is a perfect spot to jump on the Bucs coming off back to back 3 point losses vs the Rams & Chiefs.  Notice the opponents.  Probably the best team in the AFC and possibly the NFL (Chiefs) and one of the top few teams in the NFC (Rams).  The Bucs are also coming off a bye to get refreshed and ready for the stretch run.  Minnesota looks like they are trending upward but we don’t necessarily agree.  They have won 5 of their last 6 games.  They’re on impressive win during that stretch was way back on November 1st when they beat GB 28-22 despite being outgained by 75 yards.  The Packers had 4 turnovers in that game which helped Minnesota’s cause.  Since that win, they’ve played 4 of their last 5 games at home and their wins have come against Detroit, Chicago, Carolina, and Jacksonville.  Their last 2 wins vs the Panthers and Jags have gone to the wire with the Vikings winning by 1 and by 3 in OT.  Their loss during that stretch?  The Cowboys beat them in Minnesota.  So while TB was playing some of the top teams in the league, Minnesota was padding their record at home vs less than stellar competition.  The Viking offense needs RB Cook to have a big day to open up the passing game for QB Cousins.  He has done that as of late topping 100 yards in 4 of his last 6 with a 96 yard performance also thrown in.  Now he faced the #1 defense in the NFL vs the run in Tampa who allows only 74 YPG rushing on 3.3 YPC.  Stopping Cook puts huge pressure on Cousins and he hasn’t always handled that well.  If they become one dimensional they’ll have problems with the TB pass rush which is one of the best in the league (6th in sacks per game).  The Tampa offense should have plenty of success vs a Minnesota defense that has allowed 31 points to Dallas, 27 to Carolina, and 24 to Jacksonville their last 3 games.  Tom Brady is 34-12 ATS coming off a loss and when the Bucs win they tend to win big with their 7 wins coming by an average of 17 points.  Lay it with Tampa.

#124 ASA CFB TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Stanford, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This is simply a terrible situation for Stanford.  They are playing their 3rd straight road game and they haven’t even been home period since last Tuesday, Dec 1st.  Santa Clara county announced that contact sports would be put on hold starting November 30th and lasting until at least December 21st.  Because of that, the only way Stanford can play or practice was to leave the area.  Last Tuesday they made their way to Seattle, stayed in a hotel, practiced where they could and then played Washington on Saturday.  The Cardinal were able to pull together and pick up a huge upset beating the Huskies 31-26 as a 13 point underdog.  That was just a week after they beat arch rival Cal 24-23.  So now Stanford is off back to back huge wins and on the road again vs a team they probably will have trouble getting excited about, Oregon State.  On top of that, Stanford traveled straight from Seattle to Corvallis, has been living in a hotel again this week preparing for this game and they are now a road favorite.  Not ideal to say the least.  OSU is underrated in our opinion.  Two weeks ago they upset Oregon here 41-38 putting up 260 yards on the ground.  Top RB Jefferson 226 yards.  A week earlier they beat Cal here at home with Jefferson rushing for 196 yards vs a very good Golden Bear defense.  After their big win over the Ducks, OSU traveled to Utah short handed missing a number of players due to covid including RB Jefferson.   Starting QB Gebbia who was injured vs Oregon and is out for the season.  Despite being shorthanded, they played a solid Utah team to the wire losing 30-24.  Back up QB Nolan got his feet wet last week and played pretty well @ Utah throwing for 200 yards and rushing for 36.  The Beavers get RB Jefferson back here along with some other key players who were out last week.  They should be able to run the ball very well on this Stanford defense that ranks 100th nationally stopping the run.  Bad spot for Stanford vs a undervalued OSU team.  Take the points.

#410 ASA CFB PLAY ON 8* Toledo -11 over Central Michigan, Saturday at 3 PM ET - These two have the same 3-2 records, but Toledo is the much better team.  The Rockets might just be the best overall team in the MAC this season.  They rank 1st in the conference in total defense and 2nd in total offense.  CMU ranks 9th in total defense and 6th in total offense.  These two teams have each played 5 games on the year and 4 of those game vs common opponents.  Because of that, the stats for each team need to be compared.  Toledo has a +13 PPG differential, a +153 YPG differential and a +1.7 YPP differential on the season.  CMU has a +1.5 PPG, a -3 YPG differential and -0.1 YPP differential on the season.  If we break down the total yardage in just their 4 common opponents (Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Ball State, and Eastern Michigan), Toledo has outgained those opponents by +505 total yards while CMU has been outgained by -96 total yards.  Toledo, despite their 2 losses (both by 3 points), has outgained every opponent they’ve played this season.  They also have the best point differential in the MAC West.  The Rockets only 2 losses came by 3 points vs Ball St & Western Michigan who sit tied for first place in the MAC West.  Again, Toledo outplayed both of them on the stat sheet.  Speaking of Ball State, Central Michigan played the Cards last Saturday and got thumped 45-20 getting outgained by 177 yards.  The Chips had to go with their back up QB Brock (threw 2 interceptions) and he will get the go again here as the starter is banged up and will only be used in an emergency situation.  Toledo will also be using their back up QB here, Carter Bradley, however he has plenty of experience playing in multiple games last season.  He looked great last week throwing for 432 yards and 3 TD’s in the Rockets 41-24 win @ Northern Illinois.  Extra motivation here for Toledo as well as they were walloped 49-7 in last year’s season finale @ Central Michigan.  The favorite has covered 11 straight in this series and Toledo is 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they’ve faced CMU here at home.     

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo +2 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - San Francisco has had plenty of distractions leading up to this game as they’ve had to move their entire operation to Phoenix where they will play the remainder of their “home” games.  Making it worse, the Niners have already been on the road 4 of their last 5 games.  This will be the 5th weekend they’ve been away from home since October 25th.  We also like the line value here.  Our power ratings have Arizona a few spots ahead of SF and Buffalo was +3 here vs the Cards just a few weeks ago.  Now they are +2 vs SF on this neutral site.  In that game vs the Cardinals on November 15th the Bills led 23-9 midway through the 3rd quarter.  That was the infamous hail mary game as Arizona QB Murray threw a 43 yard TD pass to WR Hopkins with 2 second remaining in the game to pull out a miracle 32-30 come from behind win.  Buffalo had this solid Arizona team beat on their home field.  SF’s defense has some solid numbers this year but they have struggled with mobile QB’s which Buffalo’s Josh Allen definitely is.  When facing Arizona (Kyler Murray), Seattle (Russell Wilson), New Orleans (Taysom Hill) and New England (Cam Newton) the Niners are just 1-3 with their only win coming vs the Patriots.  San Fran is getting some extra love after pulling the upset vs the Rams in their most recent game.  Let’s not forget prior to that upset, they had lost 3 in a row all by double digits.  QB Mullens is not a bet on signal caller in our opinion as he is just 5-9 in his 14 NFL career starts.  Seems like everyone is on the Niners here as we’ve flopped favorite as Buffalo opened as a 2.5 point favorite.  We’ll gladly take the value and go against everybody here. 

#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -3 over Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We love this spot for Indy.  They are off a blowout home loss to Tennessee last week.  The defense, which was short handed last Sunday, allowed Tennessee 6.6 YPP which is their worst performance of the season.  Even with that, this Colt defense ranks 7th in the NFL in YPP allowed.  They were without their top DL Buckner and their top DE Autry who lead the team in sacks.  Both are back for this game and we expect an angry Indy defense that plays very well.  Offensively they were also without their top RB Taylor last week and he is back on Sunday.  Houston, on the other hand, has lost a number of key players this week.  Their top WR Fuller and top DB Roby have both been suspended for using PED’s.  The loss of Fuller is huge for this offense as he had become QB Watson’s favorite target with 22 catches for almost 400 yards over the last 4 games.  They are now really thin at WR after cutting Kenny Stills last week and losing Randall Cobb to injury.  That’s a big problem for a team that can’t run the ball (31st in the NFL averaging only 83 YPG on the ground).  On the other side of the ball the Texans rank 30th in total defense and 30th in YPP defense.  So that can’t run the ball, their defense has been poor, and they are now very inexperienced at WR.  Not a winning combination.  The Texans have won 3 of their last 4 but they’ve been outgained in each of those games.  They have 4 wins this year vs Jacksonville (twice), Detroit, and New England who are all below .500 and have a combined record of 10-23.  Indy is now sitting at 7-4 and 1-game behind Tennessee so a must win here.  Indy’s offense has scored 30+ in 4 of their last 6 games and should put up plenty of points vs a bad Houston defense.  The Colts are the better team and they are 7-0-1 ATS their last 8 trips to Houston.  Lay the FG here.