ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Indiana -2 over Ohio State, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Both of these Big 10 teams started with high hopes but have fallen on hard times.  IU started the conference season with a 3-0 record and they now sit at 4-8.  OSU was 2-0 the start Big 10 play and they are now 5-6.  The Hoosiers are just 1-8 their last 9 games but they’ve played an extremely tough stretch facing the top 6 teams in the Big Ten 6 times in their last 9 games.  They have proven they have the talent to beat good teams as they’ve topped Louisville, Marquette, Butler, and Michigan State.  Their win over MSU was last weekend and it was in East Lansing.  IU is off a tight home loss vs Iowa on Thursday and they hit the road for 2 of their next 3 games so this is a big one for the Hoosiers.  Ohio State hit a 5 game losing skid in January but they have since won 3 of 4.  Don’t be fooled as their wins have come against the Big Ten’s bottom feeders (Penn St, Rutgers, and Nebraska).  The Bucks are just 1-3 SU on true conference road games and shooting just 40% away from home averaging only 62 PPG.  Despite their struggles this year, Indiana is still a solid 10-3 at home where they shoot over 51% and allow just 40%.  OSU is on the road for the first time this month after holding on to a 4-point win at home on Thursday vs a 1-11 Penn State team.  The Bucks beat IU here in OT last year giving the Hoosiers a little extra motivation.  IU was favored by -2.5 on Thursday vs Iowa who is a much better team than OSU yet Indiana is laying only -2 here.  We’ve got a feeling Indiana comes to play here and picks up an easy win. 

ASA 10* CBB P:LAY ON Arizona State +1.5 over Washington, Saturday at 10:00 PM ET - On ESPN

Most will look at this game and this line and immediately take Washington right?  The Huskies are a perfect 10-0 and in first place by a full 4 games over this ASU team, Oregon St, USC, and Utah who all come in at 6-4.  We’re getting very nice value here with the line because of what happened just a few nights ago.  Washington traveled to Arizona as a +2.5 point underdog and won the game 67-60.  The Huskies hit 51% of their shots with Arizona making only 37% and despite that disparity it was still a fairly tight game.  It was a huge win for UW as they had not won @ Arizona since 2012.  Arizona State, on the other hand, was obviously peaking ahead to this game as they played their worst game of the season losing big at home to Washington State.  That has been ASU’s blueprint this year as they have played some poor games vs bad teams but when motivated and playing a top notch team, they’ve had some very good performances.  This year they’ve beaten Kansas, Mississippi State, Georgia, Oregon, and Arizona this season to name a few.  With their loss earlier this week, ASU has now officially moved off the NCAA bubble with a NET ranking of 61.  This is now a HUGE game for the home team and not so much for Washington.  We spoke of line value earlier and here is what we mean.  Just 2 nights ago UW was a 2.5 point dog @ Arizona and now they are favored at spots @ ASU despite the fact the Devils and Wildcats are rated nearly dead even.  The recent results have swung this line 3 to 4 points at some spots from where it probably should be.  As we said Washington is on the road for the 2nd time in 3 days and they have a huge 4 game lead in the Pac 12.  They are also not at 100% as 3 or 4 key players had flu like symptoms on Thursday night (they played) but we feel that will affect them more in this game as they continue on the road.  Also starter Noah Dickerson was forced to come off the bench due to a sprained ankle which is not fully healed.  The Huskies are not going to run the table in the Pac 12 in our opinion and this is a great spot for them to fall.  Take Arizona State at home.

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON West Virginia +5 over Texas, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - On ESPN2

We feel this WVU team is a very dangerous one at home.  They are having a down year with a record of just 10-13 overall, however they are a very good program that is very well coached under Bob Huggins.  We felt they’d get much better as they season has gone on and they have, especially at home.  They have won 2 of their last 3 home games with wins over Kansas & Oklahoma.  After their win over the Sooners here last Saturday, WVU went on the road and got smoked to Texas Tech which wasn’t a huge surprise off their big home win.  It’s also helping the line value here in our opinion.  Texas is off a big home win over a red hot Baylor team.  The Horns also have a huge home game on deck next week vs 1st place Kansas State.  This is a dangerous spot for the Longhorns who are just 1-5 SU on the road in conference play.  UT has simply been a terrible road team in Big 12 play winning just 2 of their last 23 conference road games.  Not only are they being asked to win this road game – which they obviously very rarely do – they need to win by a solid margin as a road favorite.  These two met in January @ Texas and the Horns were far from dominant in the 61-54 home win.  WVU has confidence here after their recent play at home and that should be bolstered by the way they played @ Texas last month.  We think the Mountaineers have a solid shot at the win here and we’ll take the points.   

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Baylor -2.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN2

The Bears are in a great spot at home for this game.  Baylor was red hot winning 6 straight games (4 by double digits) before losing @ Texas earlier this week.  That dropped them to 7-3 in league play, 1-game behind their opponent on Saturday, KSU.  The catch the Wildcats in a definite letdown spot as they won their “game of the year” earlier this week beating arch rival Kansas (we were on KSU).  While the Wildcats are not a great offensive team, they rely heavily on their defense to win games.  The problem for KSU besides the situation is this, Baylor’s defensive numbers are nearly just as good as KSU’s yet the Bears offense is much better.  They both allow just 41% shooting on the year so a wash there, Baylor’s offense ranks #1 in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency, #1 in eFG%, and #1 in 3-point FG%.  The Bears are also the best offensive rebounding team AND the best defensive rebounding team in the conference so their opponents do not get many extra opportunities while Baylor does.  With their marksmanship from deep (40% and #1 in the conference) the Bears should be able to take advantage of a Wildcat defense that is dead last in the league defending the arc.  We expect Kansas State to have problems on offense as they shoot just 39% on the road this year.  BU has covered 6 of their last 7 games with their only ATS setback coming by a point and half.  This sets up perfectly in our opinion and we’ll lay the small number with Baylor. 

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Marquette -1.5 over Villanova, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET on FOX

It’s pretty much a Marquette – Villanova battle for the Big East Title.  With 8 games remaining Nova sits at 10-0 with Marquette at 8-2 – everyone else has at least 5 losses.  Nova is off an OT win at home on Wednesday over Creighton.  Three Wildcat starters topped 40 minutes in that game.  The Cats are very thin with Jay Wright normally playing just 7 players so that could be a factor here off a big OT win.  Marquette comes in off a 1-point home loss on Tuesday to St Johns.  It was the Eagles first home loss of the season.  That game was on Tuesday giving  them an extra day to prepare and with the game at home, really 2 extra days to prepare.  The Wildcats offense has look very good as of late but keep in mind they’ve played 6 straight games vs teams ranked 5th or lower in the Big East in defensive efficiency.  Now they face a much improved Marquette defense that ranks #1 in the conference in eFG% defense and 2nd in defensive efficiency.  At home, Marquette has held opponents to just 62 PPG on 37% shooting.  Offensively the Eagles rank #1 in the Big East in 3-point FG% (40%), #1 in FT% (79%) and 3rd in eFG%.  They have shot very well at the new Fiserv Forum (Bucks NBA Arena) which is a big arena which has been tough on opponents with only 2 of their 15 foes reaching 1.00 point per possession here.  We expect the Wildcats to have some problems offensively while Marquette should play well on that end of the court vs a Villanova defense that allows 48% on the road.  Marquette is 14-1 at home and have beaten the likes of Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Buffalo here at Fiserv.  This is pretty much a must win game for Marquette or they fall 3 full games behind Nova.  Coming off their first home loss, we like the Eagles to win this one.

ASA 10* play on: Sacramento Kings -3 over Miami Heat, 10PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and we’re not about to abandon them in this situation. Sacramento had won 3 straight at home against Atlanta, Philly and San Antonio before a blowout loss to the Rockets on Wednesday. In other words, two quality wins over playoff teams in the 76ers and Spurs. The letdown game against the Rockets is excusable as the players were dealing with rumors of potential trades, along with a big win over the Spurs in the previous game. Now they are home, off a bad loss against an average team from the East (West has dominated the East overall this season).  Miami meanwhile is coming off a big upset win in Portland as a 7-point underdog. Prior to that win the Heat were 9-6 SU their last fifteen on the road which accounts for a solid road point differential, BUT only one of those nine wins came against teams with a current winning record (Clippers). On the season the Heat have just three total road wins over teams with an above .500 record right now. Sacramento is 7-1 SU their last eight at home and 10-4 SU their last fourteen with the four losses coming against the best teams in the West (Warriors, Nuggets, Blazers and Rockets).  Easy call here with the Kings at home minus the short number.

ASA play on: Orlando Magic -3 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 7PM ET – We’ve been waiting for the trade deadline to pass before making any selections today as the impact of players being moved can be dramatic and traumatic for teams. The Wolves weren’t in a position to make a move and Orlando made a minor deal so we’re good to go with this wager. The Wolves are coming off a very tough stretch of games against the Jazz (2), Memphis (2) and Denver so I doubt they have much left in their tanks to face Orlando. The Magic won 2 straight at home prior to a road loss in OKC in their most recent outing. Orlando’s home wins were solid as they came against a hot Nets team and the Pacers. These two teams met in early January with the Wolves trouncing the Magic by 17-points. That was at home though and now this game is in Orlando which is a big deal when it comes to the Wolves. Minnesota is 8-18 SU on the road this year with one of the worst point differentials of -4.7PPG. They shoot just 44% on the road and allow opponents to hit over 47% of their attempts. Orlando has covered 15 of the last twenty meetings and we expect that trend to continue.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Memphis +4.5 over Cincinnati, Thurs at 7 PM ET

We think this is a very dangerous spot for the Bearcats.  They are coming off back to back down to the wire wins over Temple (by 4) and SMU (by 5).  They are now on the road vs a hungry Memphis team that is off back to back road losses.  On top of that, Cincy travels to Houston on Saturday and those two are currently tied for first place in the AAC with 8-1 records.  The Bearcats are obviously a very solid team however they’ve also played the easiest schedule thus far in the AAC.   Through 9 games they’ve only played 2 of the top 6 teams in the conference.  They went to the wire in both of those games beating UConn in OT at home and winning at Temple by 4.  Now they face a Memphis team in that top 6 (power ratings) that is a bit desperate.  The Tigers left in their 2 game road trip with a 5-2 AAC record and returned at 5-4.  That wasn’t really a surprising development as the Tigers are just 1-5 in true road games this season.  But if you get Memphis at home, they look like a completely different team.  They are 11-1 at home this year with their only loss coming at the hands of #1 Tennessee.  The Tigers average 90 PPG at home and they’ve covered 8 of their 12 games here.  Cincy is vulnerable on the road.  They’ve come up with some tight wins vs lower tier AAC teams and a loss @ East Carolina (the 11th rated team in this 12 team league).  Cincy averages just 67 PPG on the road this season and facing a high scoring Memphis team at home has upset written all over it.  The home team has won 8 of the last 9 in this series and we’ll call for Memphis to get another here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Mississippi State -3 over LSU, Wed at 9:00 PM ETt

The Tigers have only one loss in SEC play (7-1 record) but they are a bit overvalued at this point in our opinion.  They have played the EASIEST schedule in the conference thus far having not faced a single one of the top 5 teams in the SEC (power ratings) besides themselves (Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida).  LSU is 4-0 on the road in SEC play but their wins have come @ Texas A&M (lowest rated team in the SEC), @ Mizzou in OT (Tigers are 2-7 in conference play), @ Arkansas in OT, and @ Ole Miss.  Two wins as you see came in OT and only one of those teams has a current winning record in conference play and that is Arkansas at 5-4.  Speaking of the Razors they just played LSU in their rematch in Baton Rouge and came away with a 90-89 win.  It wasn’t that close as Arkansas pulled out to a huge 18 point lead in the 2nd half and held off LSU’s furious rally.  The Tigers made 32 FT’s in that game to just 7 for Arkansas and STILL lost.  We think that home game was a red flag as LSU now starts to play better teams and might struggle on the road.  Mississippi State is 4-4 in league play but they’ve faced the much tougher slate and this is now a huge 3 game home stretch which could get the Bulldogs right back in the race.   They have some momentum here after beating rival Ole Miss on the road last Saturday.  The Dogs are also very good at home averaging 85 PPG on over 50% shooting with a near perfect 10-1 mark.  MSU has already beaten 2 of the top 5 teams at home (Auburn & Florida) and 8 of their 10 home wins have come by double digits.  We’ve been on this situation a few times this year with an unranked home team favored over a ranked road team and cashed in.  Last night was one of those wins with Kansas State topping Kansas.  We expect another W tonight with Mississippi State.

ASA NHL 9* PLAY ON Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Wednesday at 7:35 PM ET - The Maple Leafs are 3 to 1 favorites on the money line. Of course, we're not going there! However, there is great value with Toronto by laying the 1.5 goals on the puck line. That line is a available at a pick'em price and there is plenty of solid support for the expectation of this game being a Leafs win by two or more goals. The Maple Leafs are seeking revenge for a loss at Ottawa very early this season. That defeat came by a multiple goal margin as did Toronto's big win over the Senators when they most recently hosted them. Right now the Leafs are surging with positive momentum across the board as they are off a 6-1 win versus the Ducks, just signed Auston Matthews to a contract extensions, and the acquisition of Jake Muzzin from the Kings is already paying dividends. If you expect the Leafs to win this game (as you well should as a -300 favorite) you can also reasonably expect them to win by a multiple goal margin. Amazingly, 25 of Toronto's last 30 wins have come by a margin of 2 or more goals. As for the slumping Senators - playing out the string on another disappointing season - 22 of their last 32 losses have come by a multiple goal margin. This revenge game has home blowout written all over it. By the way, the Maple Leafs are 14-5 this season when playing with revenge. It is payback time here. Laying the 1.5 goals for a small price with Toronto is the value play here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico +2 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - On ESPN2

The Lobos have played one of the toughest schedules in the MWC having already faced the top 3 teams in the league (Nevada, Utah State, and Fresno).  They are just 3-6 but we feel they are undervalued because of that.  They have played 4 of their last 6 games on the road which included a 97-77 loss @ San Diego State.  The Aztecs lit it up at home that night making 55% of their shots and 91% of their FT’s.  That was the Lobos worst loss in conference play this year so they will have plenty of motivation here.  Because of that result, we may also get a look ahead from SDSU who has a huge home game on deck with 2nd place Utah State.  The Aztecs are playing their 2nd straight road game for the first time this season.  They are off a win @ San Jose State who is the worst team in the MWC and one of the worst teams in the nation (339th nationally out of 351 teams).  It was an unimpressive 11-point win over a team that is 0-9 in the league and has lost by an average margin of 81-59.  Despite that win vs a poor team, the Aztecs have been a poor road team going just 1-3 away from home in conference play with a point differential of -31.  In their home games New Mexico has played very well for the most part.  They beat Nevada here by a final score of 85-58!  That’s a Nevada team that is currently 21-1.  In their most recent home game, the Lobos took the 2nd best team in the MWC, Utah State, to the wire losing 68-66.  San Diego State is nowhere near as good as either of those teams and we’re getting them in a tough spot.  SDSU has covered just 3 of their last 12 games dating back  to last season including a loss @ New Mexico last year as a 2-point favorite.  Similar spot here and we’ll call for the Lobos to win at home on Tuesday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas State -2.5 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN

Simply put, this is the most important game of the season for KSU.  They have lost 8 straight to the Jayhawks and the Cats know this is their best shot in awhile.  Going back to the start of the 2000 season, the Cats have been an underdog 40 consecutive games vs KU until today.  Now we have the unranked home team favored over the #13 Jayhawks which is a situation we always like to take a strong look at.  KSU has a huge edge experience wise in this game as they start all upperclassmen including 3 seniors while the Jayhawks will be starting 3 freshman tonight who will be playing their first game ever at Bramlage Coliseum.  Not only are the Wildcats experienced, those upperclassmen have been very successful including a run to the Elite 8 last season.  The one thing they haven’t done in their careers is beat Kansas so that was one of their top goals entering the season. After a slow start to the Big 12 season (lost first 2 games), KSU has won 6 straight conference games including wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma.  They are 9-1 at home this season and they’ve won 24 of their last 28 here at Bramlage.  This young Kansas team, on the other hand, is trending downward having lost 3 of their last 5 games.  They are just 1-5 in true road games this year and they’ve been outscored by an average of 6 PPG on the road.  It also looks like Kansas will be short handed tonight with starting guard/forward Marcus Garrett most likely sitting out his 2nd straight game with an ankle injury.  The veteran Cats have been waiting for this one and we like them to take care of business at home tonight.  Take Kansas State.

ASA play on: #542 Sacramento Kings +2 over San Antonio Spurs, 10PM ET – We’ve won a lot this year playing on the Kings and will add to your bankroll with another wager on them tonight. Sacramento is a young, fun and exciting team on the rise in the NBA this season. The Kings sit 9th in the West and are just 1-game behind the Clippers for the 8th and final playoff spot. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home on the season and have won 6 straight on their own floor. Prior to the 6-game home winning streak they had lost two games to the Warriors and Nuggets (arguably the 2 best teams in the NBA) by 4-point each. Now they face a Spurs team that is just 10-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.4PPG which is right around the league average. Not to mention, that most of the Spurs 10 road wins have come against teams in the bottom half of the league. In fact, only 3 of the Spurs 10 road wins came against teams with winning overall records. San Antonio is just 4-3 ATS as a small favorite in this price range, the Kings are 6-3 ATS as a small dog in this price range. Sacramento keeps the positive momentum rolling after a big home win over the 76ers on Saturday with another home win here. Take Sacramento!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Illinois State (pick-em) over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 10 PM ET on ESPN2 - MVC GAME OF THE MONTH

These two met a few weeks ago in Loyola and ISU played the Ramblers toe to toe in a 67-64 loss.  The stats were almost even across the board and the Redbirds nearly pulled the upset at a 9-point dog.  It was a solid performance against a Loyola team that tends to handle teams easily at home with 8 of their 10 home wins coming by more than 10 points.  Since that game Illinois State is 4-1 and playing their best basketball of the season.  The Redbirds now sit at 6-3 in MVC play just 1 game behind Loyola who is in 1st place.  They come into this home revenge spot off an easy 69-55 road won over a very good Drake team.  Now they come home to face a team they’ve been waiting for.  This is the Birds biggest home game of the season.  Last year they lost two tight games to Loyola during the regular season and then the two met in the MVC Championship game and the Ramblers won again to secure their automatic bid to the NCAA tourney.  They then went on to the Final 4 in a to end a remarkable season.  Illinois State did not make a post-season tourney but return nearly every key player from that team last season.  They want this one badly.  ISU is one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 3 seniors and a junior in the starting lineup.  They have 2 all conference caliber seniors in Milik Yarborough (17 PPG & 7 RPG) and Phil Fayne (16 PPG & 6 RPG).  They are facing a Loyola team that is nowhere near as good as last season.  The Ramblers already have 2 more losses (8) than they had all of last season (6).  They’ve also shown a tendency to play poorly at times on the road as they’ve already been blown out twice in league play away from home (lost 70-35 @ Southern Illinois in their most recent home game & lost @ Evansville 67-48).  Those two losses came against teams that are currently in the lower half the MVC with records of 4-5 and 3-6 respectively.  Now they face one of the top teams in the league in big time revenge mode.  Loyola will also be without one of their key players and top defender Lucas Williamson who injured his hand and has been out the last 3 games.  It should be an electric atmosphere at Redbird Arena for this 9 PM local start to be seen on ESPN2.  We’ll call for ISU to get their much awaited revenge and roll to an easy win on Saturday night.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UW Milwaukee +7 over UW Green Bay, Friday at 8:00 PM ET

These two met in the Horizon League opener back in late December and UWGB won 92-82 on the road.  That continued a trend in this rivalry of the road team covering at a high rate – now 10-3 ATS last 13 meetings.  The first meeting was closer than the final score might indicate as it was a 4-point game with just 1:30 remaining.  UWGB shot 50% in that game with UWM making only 43% of their shots.  Green Bay was also +17 points at the FT line.  The 10-point final margin was the largest margin of the game for either team.  That game was over a month ago and these two teams have changed quite a bit since then.  In fact, we believe Milwaukee is now the better team.  They’ve continued to improve while we feel UWGB has taken a step back since that meeting.  Over the last 6 games (they’ve played the same teams during that stretch), UWM is shooting 44% while allowing their opponents to shoot just 39%.  The Panthers are 3-3 over that stretch (5-1 ATS) scoring 68 PPG and allowing 68 PPG.  UWGB over that same stretch vs the same teams is shooting 44% while allowing their opponent to hit 50% of their shots.  The Phoenix are 1-5 over that span (1-5 ATS) scoring 77 PPG but allowing 88 PPG.  UWGB is -48 on the boards over that 6 game stretch while UWM is -21 on the glass.  Again, keep in mind that 6 game stretch they played the same teams so we are comparing apples to apples here.  The Panthers are definitely the better team right now and they are getting significant points and have revenge for motivation.  We like UW Milwaukee on Friday night.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -6 over UTSA, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - CUSA GAME OF THE MONTH

We love the way this one sets up.  WKY is off a road loss @ La Tech and that dropped them to 4-4 in Conference USA.  They are much better than their record as the are currently 7th in CUSA yet rated as the 2nd best team in the conference behind Old Dominion.  They easily have the most talent on the league with 3 potential NBA players (Bassey, Hollingsworth, and Bearden) on the roster right now.  If properly motivated the Hilltoppers are the best team in the league.  They’ve already beaten the likes of Wisconsin, Arkansas, West Virginia, and St Marys in the non-conference portion of their schedule.  This team’s goal is to win CUSA and they come in at 4-4 so we expect them to be very motivated at home coming off a loss.  They’ve played the 2nd most difficult schedule in conference play so far and now they start a stretch of playing teams they should beat and beat handily.  It starts on Thursday when they host UTSA.  The Roadrunners are 6-2 in conference play so 2 full games ahead of WKY.  That makes this a near must win for the Hilltoppers.  Unlike WKY, the Roadrunners have played the EASIEST strength of schedule so far in league play.  Only 3 of their 8 conference games have been played against the top half  (7) of the league.  Those game resulted in 2 last second wins at home (by 1 & 2 points) and a double digit road loss.  One of those games was last Saturday when UTSA came back from a 17 point deficit with under 4:00 minutes remaining to beat ODU by 1.  We were on UTSA and we’ll count that as a lucky win to say the least.  Now off that incredible comeback the Roadrunners take the road where they are 1-2 in CUSA play.  They beat UTEP by 4 (the 3rd worst team in the league), lost @ MTSU (the WORST team in the league), and lost at UAB.  UTSA shoots just 39% in their road games this year and facing the 2nd most efficient defense in CUSA on Thursday will be a problem.  The Toppers lost @ UTSA as a 7 point favorite last year so you can add that to the motivation we already expect them to have tonight.  We really like Western Kentucky here and expect a double digit win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tulsa +2.5 over Memphis, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH

Great spot for Tulsa here in our opinion.  They are just 2-6 in AAC play, however they’ve played the toughest schedule thus far in conference play.  The Golden Hurricane have lost 3 straight but those 3 losses were to the 3 best teams in the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF).  The two best teams in the AAC are Houston & Cincy and Tulsa has already played them both twice.  They are 10-2 with their only 2 home losses coming at the hands of Cincy in OT & Houston.  This is a big game for the Hurricane as 3 of their next 4 come on the road.  Memphis is 13-7 overall but they’ve only played 4 true road games the entire year.  They are 1-3 in those games and their lone road win was tight 4-point win over a Tulane team that is ranked below 300 and is just 4-15 on the season.  The Tigers are coming off a huge home win over UCF and they have a big road match up with USF this weekend.  Tulsa has a big edge from beyond the arc as they are hitting 38% in conference play while Memphis makes just 28%.  Even worse on the road for the Tigers where they hit just 25% from deep.  Because they aren’t a great outside shooting team, the Tigers get most of their points inside the arc but they are facing a Tulsa defense that allows opponents to make only 47% of their shots (55th nationally).  They also hold opponents to scoring just 45% of their points from 2-point land which is in the top 40 nationally.  Memphis isn’t used to the role of road favorite and they haven’t been very good in this spot covering just 3 of their last 9 when laying points on the road.  Just playing away from home in general has been tough for the Tigers as they’ve won only won 6 of their last 19 road games.  Since these two joined the AAC, they’ve faced off 3 times here in Tulsa with the Hurricane winning all 3 by double digits.  We like Tulsa getting points at home here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Butler -2.5 over Marquette, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

This is a massively important game for Butler.  They come into this game 12-9 overall and 3-5 in the Big East.  They are coming off 2 straight losses to Villanova (the top team in the Big East) and @ Creighton.  The Bulldogs are better than their record in our opinion.  They are currently tied for 6th place in the league yet their power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the Big East behind Villanova and Marquette.  Speaking of the Golden Eagles, we feel they are overvalued at this point in the season.  They are ranked 9th in the country yet their power rating has them at 34th.  They’ve played on 5 road games the entire season (3-2 record) and this is the first back to back road game of the year.  Their defense on the road has been very poor allowing 88 PPG on 52% shooting.  After losing by 20 @ St Johns to open the Big East season, the Eagles have won 7 straight.  However they’ve had a number of tight games with 4 of their 7 conference wins coming by 5 points or less.  They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in the Big East.  Of their 8 conference games, 6 have been played vs the bottom 5 teams in the league in terms of power ratings.  On Saturday they traveled to Xavier where they rallied from 11 down in the 2nd half to pick up the 87-82 win.  The Eagles shoot the 3 ball a lot.  They have very little inside game.  36% of their points come from deep but they may have problems here vs a Butler defense that is #1 in the Big East at defending the arc allowing just 34% in conference play.  The Bulldogs might be without starter McDermott in this game but we often find teams rise to the occasion in the first game with a rotation player on the bench.  Butler has been favored by at least 5 points in 4 straight meetings at Hinkle and we’re laying a much smaller number here.  The Bulldogs are also 9-1-2 ATS their last 12 games vs Marquette.  We really like spots like this with a desperate unranked team at home yet favored over a top 10 team.  That should tell you something.  Butler is the side here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UNLV +9.5 over Nevada, Tuesday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

We like UNLV at home getting significant points in this rivalry.  Nevada is 19-1 and ranked in the top 10 and deservedly so.  However, they simply haven’t played as well on the road as they have at home.  They are 6-1 in MWC play but their tight games have been on the road.  They are 2-1 in MWC games on the road losing @ New Mexico by 27 points, winning @ Fresno by 10 (it was a 5-point game with 2:00 minutes remaining), and then won @ Boise by 1 point.  Their conference wins at home have come by margins of 15, 23, 39, and 40 points so a big difference in road vs home performance.  UNLV is a perfect 4-0 at home in league play.  They are 11-8 overall and 5-2 in conference play.  The Rebels have their flaws but they are a solid, scary opponent, especially at home getting significant points.  They have had some injuries in their frontcourt and have turned to a 3-guard lineup that shoots the 3 very well.  They are #1 in the MWC in league play hitting almost 42% of their triples.  They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency and they because of their solid guard play, they turn the ball over fewer than anyone else in the MWC.  While Nevada is very good defensively, the one thing they are not at the head of the class in the conference is defending the 3 point line (5th in the league).  UNLV should be able to take advantage of that.  This line is too high in our opinion.  Part of that might be that Nevada is coming off a 40-point blowout home win (vs Colorado St) and UNLV off a 27-point blowout road loss (@ San Diego St).  Those results set this one up nicely for the home team.  Last year when Nevada played here they were favored by just -1.5.  Now they are laying nearly double digits.  Value on the home team and we’ll take UNLV.

ASA play on: Philadelphia 76ers -7 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – We like the situation with the 76ers coming off a blowout loss in Denver a few nights ago, while the Lakers are off a win over the Suns. Philly’s big stars of Embiid and Butler will be in the line up tonight for this TNT game in Los Angeles. The Lakers though have some key injuries with Kuzma (?), Ball and James out. The Lakers defense has not been good of late as they’ve given up 120 or more points in regulation in 4 of their last five games. Philly is 6-1 ATS this season when coming off a double-digit loss so expect a bounce back here in this marquee matchup. Based on the betting markets and line fluctuations it’s an easy call for us on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Vanderbilt +9.5 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET

The Wildcats are off an impressive home win over Kansas and taking on a Vandy team that is 0-6 in the SEC and coming off a blowout loss @ Oklahoma on Saturday.  So Kentucky’s the play here right?  It looks pretty easy to jump on the Cats here but we think Vanderbilt is in a great spot to give UK all they can handle.  First of all these two have already met this year and Kentucky won by 9 at home as a 12.5 point favorite.  Now they are laying nearly that number on the road just a few weeks later so the line value is definitely with Vanderbilt here.  In that first game Kentucky shot 50% from the field and held the Commodores to just 36% yet the Wildcats NEVER had the spread covered during the game.  Not once.  Their biggest lead was 11.  Vandy knows they can play tight with Kentucky because they did just that in Rupp Arena.  UK may overlook this game coming off their much anticipated game with Kansas over the weekend.  Also, the fact they’ve already beaten the Dores AND they have a big game @ Florida on deck.  Vanderbilt is off an embarrassing effort on Saturday losing by 29 points @ Oklahoma.  It wasn’t a huge surprise as they were coming off a OT home loss to #1 Tennessee prior to traveling to OU.  In their game against the Vols, Vanderbilt actually led by 6 with just 1:30 remaining but lost in OT.  This team knows they can play with the best in the SEC as they’ve already played toe to toe with both Tennessee & Kentucky.  This has been a very close series as of late with the last 5 games all being decided by single digits.  Vandy is 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 vs Kentucky and we think they get another cover here.  We actually like the host to give Kentucky a scare in this one and the points are worth taking.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1.5 over Mississippi State, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET

We released Bama as a play last week in a similar situation vs Ole Miss and picked up an easy 21 point win.  The Crimson Tide is coming off a tight loss @ Baylor in the SEC / Big 12 Challenge over the weekend.  Bama played very well on the road against one of the better teams in the Big 12.  Baylor never led by more than 6 points and Alabama had the lead with 4:30 remaining.  The loss dropped them to 2-3 their last 5 games but they are playing as well as they have all season despite that mark.  Their losses during this stretch came by 1-point on a last second 3-pointer vs A&M, a 3-point loss at #1 Tennessee, and their close setback @ Baylor.  It’s not crazy to say they could very easily be 5-0 their last 5 facing very good competition.  Just as the Ole Miss game was last week, this is a huge home game for Bama.  They sit at 3-3 in the SEC and they played 3 of their next 4 games on the road. They have already beaten Kentucky, Arizona, and Ole Miss here at Coleman Coliseum and Mississippi State is next.  The Bulldogs are in a rough spot here.  They had one of the biggest home games of the season last Saturday as they upended Auburn and they have a huge revenge game on Saturday vs arch rival Ole Miss who beat MSU on the road just a few weeks ago.  The Dogs are just 1-2 SU on the road in SEC play with their only win @ Vandy.  MSU averages 78 PPG on 47% shooting overall for the season, however in their road games that drops to just 68 PPG on 40% from the field.  We really like this match up as Bama should control the boards (#1 in the SEC both offensive & defensive rebounding).  They also shoot the 3 well, especially at home, and they are facing an MSU defense that ranks 12th in the league defending the arc.  We really like Alabama in this spot.

ASA play on: Detroit Pistons +8 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7PM ET – The Bucks are coming off a loss in Oklahoma City and haven’t lost two consecutive games this season. BUT they must win this game by 8 or more points, and we don’t think they’ll do that. Let’s talk about value here first. The Bucks hosted the Pistons on January 1st and were -10 points at home. In mid-December the Bucks were a -3-point favorite in Detroit and won 107-104. You can see for yourself the over-adjustment the oddsmakers have made on tonight’s number. Milwaukee also has a MUCH bigger game on deck in Toronto and may get caught looking past a team they just beat by 23 a few weeks ago. Detroit is well rested here with their last game being on January 25th in Dallas. They are 21-27 SU on the season and It’s becoming a dire situation if they want to make the playoffs this season. Of their 27 losses this season, fourteen have come by 8 or less points. They have an overall negative differential of -2.6PPG on the season, +.1 at home. The Bucks have failed to cover 4 straight games which is a sign the lines are catching up to them. The Pistons are the play here and they will get their 7th cover in their last nine games.

ASA NHL 9* PLAY ON New Jersey Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Pittsburgh, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - The first games after the All Star break tend to be played with a bit of rust on the players' games. They've had a layoff and it shows so the games have a tendency to be tight and low-scoring. This of course favors the dogs and in a case like this we have great value with the puck line. By laying a small price we get New Jersey +1.5 goals and that is a huge value here. The Devils have won 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Penguins and the lone loss came by a single goal so it did cash on the puck line for New Jersey. Also, Pittsburgh stumbled into the break as they lost 3 of their last 4 games and the lone win came by a single goal. We wouldn't be surprised to see this game stay very tight all the way and that means great value with the big dog Devils in this one. NJ has lost 3 straight games but they are 6-3 in that situation this season and again we've got the +1.5 goals as added insurance here. Pittsburgh is 8-11 this season when off a game in which they allowed 4 or more goals. The Devils have proven they match up well with the Pens and we expect those match-up edges to be a factor again on Monday. Grabbing the 1.5 goals for a small price with New Jersey is the value play here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Fairfield +1.5 over Iona, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Iona steps into this game in 2nd place in the MAAC with a 5-2 record.  Fairfield is tied with Manhattan for last place with a 2-6 record.  The line opened Iona -1.5 and despite the fact the Gaels are receiving over 70% of the wagers, the line has dropped to -1 and a number of shops.  That’s always a signal to take a strong look as more money is coming in on the team that is getting less than 30% of the overall wagers.  This is one of those games we’ve talked about where the “obvious” pick for those that don’t follow closely would be to take Iona simply to win the game and that shows up in the percentage of wagers we discussed above.  That’s too easy.  While Iona is currently in 2nd place they are far from a solid team ranking 218th nationally and they have just a 7-11 record overall.  Going on the road has been tough for them as they have covered only 1 of their last 11 away from home.  They are just 1-7 SU this year in true road games and if you add neutral games into the mix Iona is just 2-10 SU on the season.  Iona is coming off a huge win just 2 days ago (Friday) beating 1st place Rider in a tight game at home.  Now they hit the road a face a team they already beat a few weeks ago.  Speaking of that game in early January, Iona was favored by 5 points and won 94-87 at home.  First of all that tells us that Fairfield should be favored by about -3 based on the first meeting a short time ago.  Secondly, the way that game played out will have Fairfield extra motivated for this rematch.  That’s because Fairfield blew a 51-39 halftime lead and the Stags still led with 2:00 minutes remaining before Iona pulled away for the 7 point win.  Both teams took 64 shots and made 31.  Fairfield, a solid 3-point shooting team, took advantage of Iona’s terrible 3-point defense (331st nationally) making 16 from deep (just 10 for Iona).  The rebounds were pretty much dead even.  The difference?  Fairfield was “homered” by the refs getting called for 25 personal fouls leading to a +13 edge a the line for Iona.  We don’t expect the officials to be quite as biased toward Iona here @ Fairfield.  The host has won 9 of the last 10 meetings outright and we’ll grab Fairfield as a home dog today.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford -1.5 over Colorado, Saturday a 8:00 PM ET

The Cardinal were in a similar spot a few weeks ago at home vs Arizona State and we jumped on Stanford and picked up an easy win.  In that spot, Stanford was off a tight home loss to Arizona and was in a must win spot for ASU before going on the road for 2 games.  They were a short underdog in that game and handled the Sun Devils 85-71.  Now the Cardinal are off a 70-66 home loss at the hands of Utah in a game that was tied with 1:00 minute left to play in the game.  Utah shot 64% from beyond the arc which was the difference.  No shame losing to a red hot Utah team that is 4-2 in the Pac 12 with their only losses coming @ Arizona in OT and @ Washington who is 6-0 in league play.  Similar to a few weeks ago, Stanford is now backed into a corner with a 2-5 conference record and they leave on a 3 game road trip after this match up.  This is a must win for Stanford.  They are much better than their overall & conference record in our opinion.  First of all they played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to get them ready for league play facing the likes of Kansas (lost @ KU in OT), North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida.  Meanwhile Colorado played one of the easiest non-conference slates facing a grand total of ONE top 100 team which resulted in a loss to San Diego.  In Pac 12 play, the tough slate has continued for Stanford as they’ve faced 5 of the 6 teams that are currently in 1st, 2nd or 3rd place in the conference.  Colorado comes in with a 2-4 record in league play and their 2 wins have come against the two worst teams in the Pac 12, Washington State & Cal.  One of those wins came on Thursday night at Cal who is easily the worst team in the Pac 12 with an 0-7 league mark and 5-14 overall.  It was a game the Buffs were trailing with under 7:00 minutes remaining and led by just 4 with under 45 seconds remaining so the 11-point win was deceiving.  CU shot 51% from the field and Cal just 38% and the game still went to the wire.  Now off that win, Colorado plays their 3rd road game in 7 days (@ Utah, @ Cal, @ Stanford).  We really like the match for Stanford as well.  Neither team shoots the 3 particularly well and both prefer to score inside the arc.  The Cardinal hit 55% of their 2-point shots in league play (2nd in the conference) and Stanford doesn’t defend well inside the arc allowing 55% in league play (9th in the conference).   On the other side the Cardinal defend very well inside the arc (3rd in the Pac 12) while CU doesn’t shoot all that well from 2-point range (9th in the league).  This game sets up very, very well for the home team and we’re sitting at a number where they basically just have to win.  Take Stanford.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA (pick-em) over Old Dominion, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

ODU checks in at 16-5 overall and they sit in first place in CUSA with a 6-2 record.  That being said, we think this team is overvalued right now.  They played one of the easiest non-conference slates in the nation (329th ranked SOS) and despite their 6 wins in league play, they’ve been far from dominant.  They’ve had one easy win in CUSA play and their other five wins have come by margins of 1, 1, 2, 3, and 6 points.  The Monarchs are 3-1 on the road in conference play but all of those games have come against the lower 6 teams in the league and all came down to the wire.  This is also a rough scheduling spot as ODU is playing their 3 road game in 7 days here.  They beat Charlotte by 6 on Sunday (Charlotte is 5-14 overall) and they barely got by UTEP on Thursday winning by 2 (UTEP is 6-12 on the year).  Now they face the best team they’ve seen on the road in CUSA this year.  UTSA is 5-2 in conference play, a half game behind Old Dominion.  The Roadrunners have won 8 of their last 10 with their only losses coming on the road.  They are rested and ready for this one after cruising to a 45 point win over Charlotte on Thursday night.  Yes you read that correctly and that’s the same Charlotte team that ODU struggled to beat last Sunday.  Not only are they playing well right now, but UTSA has been waiting for this one.  These two met just once last year and it resulted in UTSA’s most embarrassing performance of the season, a 100-62 loss @ ODU.  The Roadrunners were a decent team last year (20-15 record) but just played horribly in all aspects in that one.   UTSA is a talented offensive team (#1 in CUSA in offensive efficiency in conference games) that will be sky high vs an ODU team that struggles to score at times (67 PPG average).  The host gets their revenge vs a team that simply isn’t as good as their record may indicate. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ole Miss -1 over Iowa State, Saturday at 12:00 Noon ET

This is a game we’ve had our eyes on for a few weeks simply because of the situation.  There is obviously more to it than that, but this is a terrible spot for ISU.  The Cyclones are coming off a road game @ Kansas which is one of their most important games of the season.  They topped KU a few weeks ago at home but lost a tight one this week in Lawrence 80-76.  It was an emotional roller-coaster type game for ISU who led at half, got down by 8 with just 4:00 minutes remaining, battled back to tie the game with 2:00 remaining only to lose by 4.  We feel this will be a tough spot for the Cyclones to be on the road again in a somewhat meaningless non-conference game as they have their sights set on the Big 12 Title.  Iowa State is always tough to beat at home, however on the road this year they have a 2-3 record with their wins coming down to the wire as well (won by 6 & 4 points).  Ole Miss should be extra motivated here off perhaps their worst effort of the season, a 21-point loss @ Alabama (we were on the Tide).  That game set up very nicely for an underrated Bama team who was 2-3 in conference play and almost in a must win spot vs the Rebels.  Ole Miss is happy to be back home where they are 8-1 on the season (only loss to red hot LSU) shooting over 51% here at home while allowing just 40% to their opponents.  They should control the interior here as the Rebs are very good at scoring inside (22nd in shooting percentage inside the arc) and very good at keeping teams from scoring inside (20th nationally in defensive shoot percentage inside the arc).  That means ISU will have to be hot from deep which is always tough on the road, especially in a venue none of them are used to.  Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS as a dog this year and they’ve been tabbed a home dog just once vs a very good Auburn team.  The Rebs dominated that game 82-67.  Mississippi head coach Kermit Davis said their loss to Bama was one of the few times that his team was “out toughed” this year so you can expect a great effort in their bounce back game on Saturday.   

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON BYU +1.5 over St Marys, Thursday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

This is a revenger from a game played @ St Marys back on January 5th.  The Gaels were favored by 6 in that game and now favored on the road just a few weeks later.  Based on that first number, BYU should be a 2 point favorite here.  The first game was an 88-66 blowout win for St Marys which is a contributing factor to why they are now favored on the road.  The loss should have BYU extra motivated here as they played very poorly shooting just 40% from the field (55% for St Marys) and just 6 of 17 from 3-point land.  After losing their WCC opener @ San Francisco, the Gaels have ripped off 4 straight wins – 3 of those coming at home.  Their only road win in conference play was @ Loyola Marymount who is 2-3 in league play.  Overall St Marys is just 1-2 in true road games and 3-5 in road/neutral games.  BYU is 9-1 at home and just happy to be back at the Marriott Center as 7 of their last 9 games have been played away from home.  The Cougs are 4-2 in WCC play and this is a huge game for them kicking off a 3 game homestand which includes a date with Gonzaga.  They are winning their home games by an average score of 83-67 and they really step in up defensively at the Marriott Center holding opposing teams to just 39% from the field.  Provo has proven to be a very tough place for teams to come in and win as BYU has won 37 of their last 40 games here.  It’s not often we get BYU as a home dog and we’ll jump on it.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -1.5 over Southern Miss, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - CONERENCE USA GAME OF THE MONTH

These two teams have very similar records with Western Kentucky coming in at 10-9 (3-3 on Conference USA play) while Southern Miss sits at 11-8 (3-4 in CUSA play).  However, we feel WKY is the much better team and we’re getting some solid value laying only a point or two in this game.  Western’s 3 conference losses have come by 1, 1, and 3 points.  Two of those losses came at the hands for Old Dominion (rated #1 in CUSA) & Marshall (#4 in CUSA), two of the top 4 teams in CUSA (Western is the #2 rated team in the conference).  USM’s conference losses have come by 18, 15, 8, and 3 points.  The Eagles wins have come by 3, 5, and 7 points with two of those games played against Middle Tennessee State & Charlotte, two of the three teams in CUSA.  Southern Miss has 11 wins as we mentioned however ZERO of those wins have come against teams ranked inside the top 100 and only one of those wins came against a team ranked inside the top 150 and that game took place on November 11th (win over SMU).  Nine of their eleven wins have come against teams ranked 200 or lower including 3 vs non-division 1 opponents who are not ranked at all.  The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, have beaten Wisconsin, St Marys, Arkansas (on the road) and West Virginia (neutral site).  They have a huge edge defensively (2nd in CUSA in defensive efficiency in conference games) over the Eagles who are a poor defensive team (13th in CUSA defensive efficiency in conference games).  WKY should also have a large advantage on the boards as USM is one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation.  The Eagles are the shortest team in the nation with only one regular contributor taller than 6’5.  Their rebounding margin in their 7 conference game is -36 while WKY is +36 on the boards in their 6 league games.  Western has dominated this series winning 4 straight all by double digits including last year’s wins by 16 & 17 points.  Southern Miss has not had a big home court advantage with a record of just 20-18 SU @ Reed Coliseum since the start of the 2016 season (minus non-division 1 opponents).  Because of USM’s +.500 record this year vs terrible competition, we’re getting WKY as the lowest number they’ve laid in this series since 2013.  Hilltoppers cruise here.      

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UMass -3.5 over St Bonaventure, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

A few weeks ago we grabbed St Bonnies at home vs St Joes as a Top Play and the Bonnies won in a rout.  We felt they were undervalued as their record was poor but they were getting some players back and finally at full strength.  Since that win they are just 1-2 with their only win coming against Fordham who is 0-5 in league play.  The Bonnies also now have some more injurie issues and they are in a terrible situational spot here.  They are coming off a double OT loss at home on Saturday to Dayton.  It was a game St Bonaventure led by 10 in the 2nd half and felt they should have won making this an emotionally tough spot for them on the road.  They were down 2 starters in that game (Kaputo & Poyser) both with concussion issues leaving this team very thin.  They have almost no bench right now leaving their starters to play 50, 48, 47, 46, and 35 minutes on Saturday.  On top of that the Bonnies are 0-6 this year in true road games and if you add in their neutral site games, they are 1-9.  They are also 0-8-1 ATS their last 9 true road games.  UMass is 0-5 in league play yet favored by 3.5 here which is a buy sign in our opinion.  They are better than their A10 record as they’ve been very competitive with some of the top teams in the league losing by 3 @ St Louis (currently 5-0 in first place in A10), by 5 @ Dayton (4-1 in the A10), and by 5 to a red hot George Mason team (5-1 in the A10).  The Minutemen have been competitive against the best teams in the league and they’ve played the toughest conference schedule already having faced 4 of the top 5 teams in the Atlantic 10. This is now a huge home game for them as they see an opportunity for their first win in conference play.  Lay the small number with UMass here. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Ole Miss, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET

We always have to take a long, sometimes a strong look, at unranked teams at home favored over ranked teams.  That’s what we have here.  The 11-6 Crimson Tide are a slight 1-point favorite over the 14-3 and 20th ranked Ole Miss Rebels.  Many times what will happen in this situation is the ranked team will get the majority of the bets simply because people see they are ranked and an underdog on top of that.  That is the case here with the Rebs receiving over 55% of the wagers as of this writing.  However, over 70% of the money is coming in on the unranked home team which tells us the heavy bettors in the know are siding with Bama.  We are in that group as well.  This is a MUCH bigger game for the Tide.  They are 2-3 in SEC play and they really need this home win.  Ole Miss is already 4-1 in conference play so a loss would not be a huge setback here.  Bama has some impressive wins at home this year including Kentucky and Arizona.  Their only home loss in SEC play was an 81-80 setback to Texas A&M as the Aggies made a miraculous 3-pointer at the buzzer to pull the upset.  The Tide played one of their best games of the season on Saturday almost pulling the upset @ now #1 Tennessee.  Bama actually led with under 3:00 minutes to go on the road but couldn’t hold on in a 71-68 loss.  A great effort vs the top ranked Vols who had won every home game by at least 13 points entering that game and have won every SEC game, except Bama, by double digits.  Now the host it backed into a corner and we expect a very good performance tonight.  Ole Miss is coming off a home win over Arkansas and they have a huge non-conference home game on deck with #24 Iowa State on Saturday.  Mississippi guard and one of their key players Devontae Shuler is not at 100% which could be a key tonight.  He’s had a foot problem as of late which limited him in Saturday’s win over Arkansas as he played his lowest minute total of the year and was just 1 of 6 from the field.  In his last 2 games Shuler is just 2 of 12 from the field.  He didn’t practice on Sunday or Monday as he is resting his foot.  He may play tonight but he’s obviously not at full strength.  The Rebels come into this game having won 11 of their last 12 games but only 3 of those 11 wins came against teams ranked in the top 100.  They are overvalued right now and this is a bad spot for them.  The home team has dominated this SEC series winning 15 of the last 18 SU and we look for Bama to continue that tonight.

ASA play on: #526 Portland Trailblazers +5 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – Let’s double up on our NBA profits today with a late game winner on this Western Conference showdown. Earlier today we cashed with a wager on the Under in the Pistons vs. Wizards game. We like the Blazers here for several reasons including double-revenge from two losses to the Jazz in late December. Portland is playing well right now have faced a tough schedule coming into this game. In their last four games on the road the Blazers have gone 2-2 SU with wins at the Warriors and Kings, two losses in Denver by 3 and at Sacramento by 8. In the game at Denver they were +4.5 points and at the time the Nuggets had the best overall record in the West. Now they are catching more points against the 7th seed Jazz? The over-correction by the oddsmakers is due to the Blazers current 6-game winning streak, but don’t be fooled by that number. Utah’s last six wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league (Cavs and Bulls), a 19-win Magic team, a 20-win Pistons team, the Lakers without LeBron and the Clippers. We’re not impressed. The Jazz have some injuries at guard right now which is a strength for the Blazers with Lillard and McCollum, who combined average 46PPG, over 8 RPG and nearly 9 assists per game. The Blazers are quietly on a 5-1 ATS run and playing with plenty of motivation here after a pair of losses late last month. Grab the points!

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New Orleans -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET

The home team has won each of the last 5 NFC & AFC Championships for a perfect 10-0 SU mark (8-2 ATS).  We like New Orleans to do the same on Sunday.  Last week the Rams came out and shocked the Cowboys with their gameplan which was to run the ball right down their throat.  LA did so with great success rushing for 273 yards which took the pressure off of 3rd year signal caller Jared Goff.  That worked last week at home, however we don’t see LA dominating the ground game this week vs New Orleans who has the #1 rush defense in the NFL allowing just 3.6 YPG and only 78 YPG on the ground.  In their first meeting this year, the Saints held the Rams to just 92 YPG on the ground and we see a similar outcome on Sunday.  That will make Jared Goff have to win this game and we’re not sure he’s ready for that.  If it comes down to Brees vs Goff to win this one, we’ll take the veteran QB at home all day long.  Goff has faced 6 different Super Bowl winning QB’s (Brees included) in 12 games over his career.  The Rams are just 3-9 ATS in those games.  Goff also have very good numbers at home this year, but on the road they dropped off dramatically (68% down to 60% on the road / 2,737 yards passing at home down to 1950 on the road / 22 TD’s and 9 picks at home to just 10 TD’s and 9 picks on the road).  The Saints are a perfect 6-0 at home in playoff games under head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees (14 TD’s and just 2 interceptions for Brees in those games).  They are veterans who have been here while Goff and head coach McVay are playing in just their 3rd ever playoff game.  We really like the way the New Orleans defense played down the stretch.  If you take out their meaningless season finale vs Carolina when they rested players having already clinched the NFC South, the Saint defense allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last 8 games.  Last week the New Orleans offense scored only 20 points, however they rolled up 420 yards so that score was pretty deceiving (outgained Eagles by almost 200 yards).  We expect them to put more points on the board this week while we like the New Orleans defense to at least slow down the Rams a bit.  The Saints won the first meeting here 45-35 and while we don’t expect quite the offensive output we saw in that one, we do expect a similar result with New Orleans winning by a TD or more.  Since 2012, no team that made the Super Bowl has played a road game.  It’s tough to win on the road in the NFL playoffs and we don’t expect the Rams to change the streak on Sunday.  Lay it with New Orleans in the dome. 

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma State +13.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

This is a really tough spot for ISU.  After losing back to back games vs Baylor & Kansas State, the Cyclones went on the road this week in a close to must win spot @ Texas Tech.  We were on ISU and they played great as we expected and pulled the upset.  Now they come home and play an Oklahoma State team they’ve already beaten this year and ISU goes to Kansas on Monday.  To be entirely focused on this Cowboy team when considering the circumstances will be tough.  That would be a mistake because OSU has been playing very well and they’ve been competitive in every Big 12 game despite their 2-3 conference record.  Their losses have come by 4, 6, and 10 points with the latter coming @ Oklahoma in a game that was a 4-point game with just 4:00 remaining.  In their last 3 games OSU beat Texas at home, beat WVU on the road, and then blew a 2nd half lead and lost to Baylor by 4.  In the first meeting between these 2 in early January, the Cowboys led at half and never trailed by more than 7 points in the 2nd half.  ISU won 69-63 in a game they led by just 3 points with 2:00 remaining.  OSU outrebounded the Cyclones but were -8 in made FT’s which turned out to be the difference in the game.  ISU shoots a lot of 3’s and the struggled in that game hitting only 30% (on 30 attempts).  We don’t see that changing here as the Cowboys are 2nd in the Big 12 at defending the 3 (in league play) allowing only 29%.  If ISU doesn’t go off from deep in this game, we feel Oklahoma State can hang around just as they did a few weeks ago.  OSU should have some confidence after playing Iowa State to the wire while the Cyclones will be peaking ahead to their date with Kansas in just 2 days.  Take the double digits here.    

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -1 over Fresno State, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET

The Broncos are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  Because they have a losing record (8-9) they are undervalued right now.  The started the season winning just 5 of their first 13 games which was a bit surprising as they returned 4 of their top 7 players from a team that finished last year with a 23-9 record.  After their slow start they have now won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming earlier this week vs #10 Nevada.  That was a game Boise led and had the ball with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game but lost 72-71.  That’s the same Nevada team that won by 10 @ Fresno last Saturday.  Head coach Leon Rice has mentioned how much the defense has improved over the last month and the numbers support that as the Broncos have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to less than 1.00 point per possession.  The only offense as of late that was able to top that was Nevada who has the 18th most efficient offense in the country and they barely got over 1.00 PPP (1.03).  Fresno relies very heavily on the 3-point shot (38.7 % of their points – 38th nationally) which we are always wary of when teams go on the road.  The 3-point shot doesn’t always travel well and Boise allows just 32% from deep at home.  Fresno has played a very easy schedule having faced only two teams ranked inside the top 115 since November 23.  They are 2-1 on the road, however their wins came against San Jose State (one of the worst teams in the nation) and Utah State (a game FSU didn’t have a lead until the final shot of the game – 78-77 win).  Boise has a very good home court advantage – 20-4 since the start of last season – and simply need to win here.  The undervalued Broncos get the home win.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Wichita State +4.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH

We’ve gone against Wichita a few times this year and cashed in.  This team was overvalued coming into the season as they lost some key players from last year’s 26-8 NCAA tourney team.  They are well coached and have talent, they just weren’t ready to play at their best early in the season, especially on the road.  Well this team now looks like the are a play on type team, especially at home as an underdog.  After opening the AAC season with an 11 point loss @ Memphis (we were on the Tigers), the Shockers have played quite well.  They led a very solid Temple team for all but 50 seconds of regulation but blew a 15 point second half lead and lost by 4 in OT.  WSU then traveled to the best team in the AAC (Houston – ranked 26th nationally in Ken Pom) and played very well leading the 16-1 Cougars by 5 points at half.  They were still right there with 1:00 minute remaining trailing by just 5 points (they lost by 9).  They finally broke into the AAC win column earlier this week upsetting a very good UCF team who came into the game with a 13-2 record.  The Shockers led for the final 33 minutes of that game getting the 8 point win.  That initial AAC win gives this team some great momentum heading into this game as they had been playing well as we stated, but now broke into the win column.  We feel the opposite is true for Cincinnati.  They are not playing at the top of their game right now.  After beating the worst team in the league, Tulane, handily to open conference play, they have had to battle to the wire in their last 4 games.  They are 4-1 in conference play, but they lost @ East Carolina (the 2nd worst team in the league – ranked 226th nationally), needed to come from 6 down with under 2:00 minutes remaining to beat Tulsa in OT, beat UConn at home by 2 in OT, and then held on earlier this week beating USF by 8 at home.  Cincy is 15-3 overall but just 2-2 in true road games with their wins coming by 4 @ UNLV (ranked 158th) and in OT @ Tulsa as we mentioned above.  They have a negative point differential on the road and their offense has struggled averaging just 66 PPG.  Head man Gregg Marshall has built a great program and getting points at home is something they are not used to.  This is just the 2nd time since 2009, yes 2009, that WSU has been a home underdog.  The other happened to be earlier this week when they beat UCF as a 2-point dog.  They do the same here.  Wichita pulls the upset.

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Indiana +7.5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

The Hoosiers are in a somewhat desperate spot here coming off 3 straight losses and we look for an all out effort vs their in state rival.  IU is coming off losses @ Michigan and @ Maryland and then a home setback at the hands of Nebraska.  They played Michigan (lost by 9) & Maryland (lost by 2 – blew a 14 point lead) very tough on the road and then played perhaps their worst game of the year at home vs the Huskers on Monday. In that 66-51 loss to Nebraska the Hoosiers shot only 36% overall and made only 2 of their 14 three point attempts.  It was just one of those games where everything went wrong.  We love looking at good teams coming off embarrassing losses.  Purdue, on the other hand, won at Wisconsin in OT last weekend and then crushed Rutgers here on Tuesday.  Off those games, the Boilers could be a bit overvalued now.  We feel this is a very good match up for Indiana.  The Boilers rely VERY heavily on the 3 point shot with a whopping 41% of their points coming from deep (14th nationally).  However IU defends the arc very well allowing opponents to make only 29% of their shots from beyond the arc.  In their last 3 games vs solid 3-point shooting teams (Michigan, Maryland, and Nebraska) the Hoosiers held them to a combined 20 of 65 from deep (30%).  If Purdue struggles from beyond the arc, they are in trouble.  That’s because they don’t score consistently inside the arc (322nd in 2 point scoring percentage) and they don’t get to the line often (311th in FT scoring percentage).  Indiana is a decent 3-point shooting game (35%) and Purdue stinks at defending the arc (306th nationally).  The Hoosiers are also very good at scoring inside making 58% of their shots from 2-point land (7th nationally).  We’re getting value with the number as well here.  IU was just a 9 point dog @ Michigan and a 5-point dog @ Maryland.  Those numbers tell us this number should be closer to +5, not +7.5.  We think IU has a shot to pull the upset here and we’ll take the generous points.

ASA play on: Miami Heat +2 over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET – We feel the Heat are a team in the East that will make the playoffs and cause some problems for the upper echelon teams before it’s all said and done. We can’t say we feel the same about Detroit. The Pistons have talent but don’t play hard or well consistently. Detroit is 6-17 SU their last twenty-three games and are trending in the opposite direction. Their last four wins are less than impressive as they’ve come against Orlando, Clippers, Memphis and Washington. The Pistons are 12-10 SU at home but they are one of just 8 teams in the league with a negative home differential (-.1PPG). Miami on the other hand is 10-9 SU away from home with the 9th best road differential in the league at -.3PPG. The Heat are coming off a horrible showing in Milwaukee but have rest (6-1 ATS L7 with two or more days rest) going into tonight. Miami is 7-3 SU on the road this season when coming off a loss which is a sign of a well-coached, solid team. The Heat have covered four straight in this series and obviously have some matchup advantages. Take Miami plus the points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 6:30 PM ET

This is an absolute must win for OSU.  They are coming off a 3-game losing streak after starting the Big Ten season 2-0.  Now at home with Purdue next and then two road games @ Nebraska & @ Michigan this becomes a huge game.  OSU recent 3 game losing streak was tipped off by a loss @ home to Michigan State.  The Buckeyes led that game by 9-points in the 2nd half before the Spartans came back and pulled out the win.  The Bucks then lost @ Rutgers and it was very apparent in that game that they were emotionally spent from their previous home game vs MSU.  Plus, Rutgers actually isn’t that bad this year.  They play very hard and play excellent defense.  Last Saturday we thought OSU would bounce back and give Iowa all they could handle on the road.  They led at half in Iowa City but simply couldn’t hold on due to poor shooting (just 37% for the game) and a pretty large deficit at the FT line (minus 10 made FTs).  Now the Buckeyes have had nearly a full week to recoup and get ready for this home game.  Maryland, on the other hand, played a big game last Saturday at home vs Indiana and then had to host Wisconsin on Monday, another big game for them.  This will be their 3rd game in a week and they are coming off back to back huge wins.  They trailed IU by 14 points and came back and won by 3.  Against the Badgers they jumped out a 20 point lead in the 2nd half only to have Wisconsin come back and take the lead late in the game.  Maryland hit a late 3 to pick up a 4-point win.  Off those 2 emotional home wins we expect this young Maryland team (349th nationally out of 351 in experience) will potentially have a tough time in this road tilt.  Ohio State has won 24 of their last 28 home games dating back to last year and they are in a desperate spot here.  This line is set where OSU pretty much just has to win the game which we think they’ll do.  Take the Buckeyes.

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -13.5 over Chicago Bulls, Thurs 9PM ET –The Bulls are wrapping up a brutal 5 game West Coast road trip against some of the better teams in the league and fatigue will be an issue tonight. They really couldn’t go into Denver in a worse situation as the Nuggets were just embarrassed on their home court Tuesday night by the Warriors. In fact, the Nuggets were in a similar situation earlier this year coming off a bad loss to Houston at home, then hosting Atlanta who they crushed by 45-points. Denver (18-4 SU at home) has the 5th best home point differential in the NBA at +9.3PPG. Chicago has the 6th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.7PPG. The Bulls are 3-16 SU against the West this season with an average differential of -10.7PPG. On the road the numbers are worse for Chicago as they sport a 1-9 SU road record against the West with an average loss margin of 13.4PPG. Denver is 6-2 SU at home versus the East this season, 5-0 their last five with an average margin of victory of 20PPG. Denver is 3-1 ATS as a double-digit chalk this season and they won’t let up in this game with just the Cavaliers on deck. Lay it!

ASA NHL 10* TOP PLAY ON Calgary Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET - The Sabres are on a Western Canada road swing and playing for the 4th time in 6 nights. Buffalo enters this game having lost 3 straight. The Flames scheduling situation is much better as they are on home ice and playing for the first time since Sunday! Calgary enters this game having won 7 of their past 8 games. The Flames have scored an average of 5 goals per game during this red hot 8-game stretch. Of course that is part of the reason that Calgary is a 2 to 1 money line favorite on home ice for this one. That said, the way to get value out of a situation like this is with the puck line. By laying the 1.5 goals with the Flames bettors get a plus money return of approximately +120 with Calgary. The Sabres have scored an average of just 2 goals per game in their last 9 games. Seeing the numbers above it is no wonder as to why our math modeling is projecting a dominating 5-2 home win for the Flames in this one. Calgary is one of the top teams in the NHL and a legitimate Stanley Cup contender this season. The Sabres had a hot streak earlier this season that was quite exciting for Buffalo of course. However, reality is now setting in as normalcy has returned for Buffalo. The Sabres have lost 15 of their last 21 games. Buffalo's last 11 losses have come by an average margin of 2.2 goals per game and another loss by a multiple-goal margin is in the forecast here. The Flames last 9 wins have come by an average margin of 2.7 goals per game. In road games with an O/U of 6 or more goals, the Sabres have lost 14 of their last 17 games. The Flames have won 5 of 6 games this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games and Calgary has won 10 of 13 games this season when coming off a divisional game. We predict this one turns into a home blowout. Laying the 1.5 goals for a plus money return with Calgary is the value play here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Iowa State  +5.5 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

Tech is very good but they’ve been skating on thin ice.  They are 4-0 in the Big 12 and all of their games have come down to the wire.  Their wins in conference play have come by margins of 3, 6, 6, and 7 points.  Iowa State is 2-2 in league play and their losses have come by 3 & 1 point so it’s safe to say we can expect a close game here.  Getting points will be valuable.  ISU should come in and play with some urgency as they have lost 2 straight games after trouncing Kansas by 17 points.  Their most recent loss was a 1-point setback to KSU and a game the Cyclones led by 7 with 5:00 minutes remaining.  This is a huge game for ISU as they don’t want to drop below .500 in the conference.  We realize Tech is a very solid team but they are not 15-1 solid in our opinion.  They are primed to be picked off very soon and this could be the night.  The Raiders have been outrebounded in every Big 12 game but have held their opponents in league play to just 36% shooting.  Even with those defensive numbers, all 4 of the games have been tight.  ISU will be the best offense they’ve faced so far in the Big 12 as the Cyclones are 23rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.  They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging 10 PPG or more.  We think the Cyclones will have more success offensively than the other Big 12 teams Tech has faced which will make it tough for the host to cover this one.  That’s because on the other end of the court, the Red Raiders are not a great team offensively (95th in offensive efficiency).  They have not topped 68 points in any of their conference games.  We expect this one to be played in the mid 60’s with Iowa State taking Texas Tech to the wire with a shot to win outright.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas A&M +7 over Auburn, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

We were on Auburn on Saturday and picked up a win, however we think this is a great spot to fade the Tigers.  We caught the Tigers at home on Saturday coming off an embarrassing 15 point loss @ Ole Miss earlier in the week.  Their loss to the Rebels was their first SEC game and they definitely didn’t want to lose at home and drop to 0-2 in the league with a road game here on deck.  Auburn played well at home as we expected shooting 50% from the field and 48% from deep in their 15 point win on Saturday.  They have a HUGE home game this Saturday vs Kentucky so we won’t be surprised at all if the Tigers are not at the top of their game tonight.  On top of that, this team struggles on the road.  They have played just 2 true road games  this year and they are 0-2 in those games losing by 15 & 7 points.  They were FAVORED in both.  They are shooting just 40% on the road while allowing opponents to hit 49% of their shots.  Looking back to late last season, the Tigers have now lost 5 straight road games and they were favored in 4 of those games.  They have covered just 2 of their last 9 road tilts.  A&M is just 7-7 on the season but they are playing better and have some solid momentum coming into this game after upsetting Alabama on the road last weekend.  In their 3 SEC games the Aggies lost by 2 vs Arkansas, lost by 11 @ Kentucky (was a 2 point game with 7:00 remaining), and they beat Bama on the road by 1.  They are playing their best basketball and now have 4 of their next 5 games at home.  Four of A&M’s seven losses have come by 5 points or less so they have had a chance to win a majority of the games that they lost.  The Aggies were +6.5 @ Auburn last year in their only meeting (A&M won outright) and in their only meeting 2 years ago A&M was a 7-point favorite at home.  Getting +7 at home tonight (in some spots) is a definite value in our opinion.  We like the Aggies to keep this one close and have a shot at the outright win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Penn State -1.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

There is a reason the 0-6 in Big Ten play Nittany Lions are favored (or pickem in some spots) over the now rated #23 Iowa Hawkeyes.  Most will look at this game an automatically side with the Hawkeyes over a team that sits with a 7-10 overall record.  The fact is the Lions have played a brutal Big Ten slate and they are looking at this game as a prime opportunity to get their first conference win.  We expect they’ll play very well in this game.  The Nits have not played a “lower tier” type team in the Big Ten yet this season.  They have already faced the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Indiana, and Maryland.  Those teams are ranked (Ken Pom ratings) #1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 teams in the league.  Iowa will actually be the lowest ranked team (Ken Pom) they’ve played in the Big Ten this season.  The Hawkeyes come into this game overvalued off 3 straight Big Ten wins – 2 of those at home.  We expect after beating Nebraska and Ohio State and home as well as Northwestern on the road, this is very likely a game Iowa may overlook.  That would be a mistake as this team as PSU will look at this as a prime opportunity to pick up their first conference win and Iowa is not a good road team.  The Hawks did come from 7 points  down in the 2nd half to pull the upset at Northwestern but they are just 1-2 in their 3 true road games with both losses coming by double digits.  The fact is the Hawkeyes have won only 5 of their last 25 road game dating back to the start of the 2017 season.  Last year that this venue they were crushed 82-58 by PSU.  The Lions were favored by 8.5 in that game and now this number a swung a full 8+ points from last year due to the perception that PSU is bad due to their winless conference mark.  Iowa might be without leading scorer Tyler Cook who sprained his ankle late in the OSU game and didn’t practice on Monday.  The Nits solid defense (20th nationally in defensive efficiency) will slow down Iowa’s offense that shoots only 40% in their road games.  PSU gets the outright win on Wednesday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgetown +2 over Marquette, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - On Fox Sports One

Marquette is currently a play against team on the road in our opinion.  Their home/road dichotomy is quite drastic, especially on the defensive end.  They have only played 3 true road games this year getting blown out at St Johns and at Indiana and winning in OT @ Creighton.  Their road win last Wednesday over the Blue Jays was a complete miracle.  First of all the Golden Eagles NEVER led in the game until overtime.  Not once.  On top of that they were down 85-80 with under 2 seconds remaining in the game and were able to get it to OT by scoring 5 points in the final 2 seconds.  Yes you read that correctly.  Lastly, they shot lights out in that game hitting 56% of their shots, 57% of their 3-point attempts, AND made 24 FT’s (shot 80% from the foul line) and still NEVER led in regulation.  We don’t see those numbers being duplicated tonight @ Georgetown who plays much better defense than Creighton (Blue Jays are dead last in defensive efficiency in the Big East and it’s not close).  Speaking of defense, Marquette has been horrendous on that end of the court on the road this year.  They have allowed 89, 93, and 104 points in their 3 road games.  They are allowing their road opponents to make 55.7% of their shots!  The undervalued Hoyas who are scoring 88 PPG at home this year should be able to take advantage of that.  Georgetown is 2-2 in the Big East but are very close to being undefeated as their losses came in OT vs St Johns and by 5 points @ Xavier, a game they led 17 points.  They are off a home win last Saturday over Providence and now back at home again.  The Hoyas also got one of their top players back in the line up, Mac McClung, back on the court last Saturday after he missed 4 straight games.  Marquette has played back to back down to the wire games winning both vs Creighton & Seton Hall and now going on the road we see letdown potential from the Eagles.  G’Town has a little extra motivation here as well after they lost at home in OT to Marquette last year.  Hoyas in this one outright.

NBA play on: #510 Sacramento Kings -2.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - We have lost some value with this bet as these two teams recently played and the Blazers were a 1-point favorite on this court. The line has swung the other direction with good reason as the Blazers are off a hard-fought loss in the higher altitude of Denver last night. Teams have done well this season when coming off a game in Denver and playing without rest, but historically this is a tough scheduling situation. The Kings have revenge on their side here as they recently lost at home to Portland 108-113 in OT. The biggest discrepancy in that game was at the free throw line where the Kings were minus 15 in makes and minus 18 in attempts. Sacramento played a tough home stretch of games which include a win over the Lakers, an OT loss to the Portland team and a 4-point loss to Golden State. They then won three straight games at home by an average of 11PPG. Portland has an 8-11 SU road record this season and the WORST road differential of any team in the NBA with a winning record. The Blazers are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings when playing away from home this season. The Kings are 4-0 ATS as a small favorite less than -2.5 points this season and they get this home win.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -4 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR

The Chargers have become a very popular underdog in this game and we just don’t see it.  First of all, the situation is terrible for LA.  They are playing their 3rd straight road game and 2nd of back to back games on the east coast.  Secondly, it’s their 4th road game in 5 weeks.  Of course the Pats are rested and coming off a bye so huge situational advantage to New England.  HUGE coaching advantage to the Patriots as well.  Bill Belichick has more playoff wins than any coach in NFL history and it’s not close.  He has a record of 28-11 in the post-season while the coach with the 2nd most wins in the playoffs is Tom Landry with 20, a full 8-games less than Belichick.  Giving him two full weeks to prepare for a home game vs Anthony Lynn who is coaching in just the 2nd playoff game of his career gives the Pats a distinct advantage.  Last week the Chargers were in a beneficial situation playing a Baltimore team they faced just a few weeks earlier.  They knew the Ravens haven’t been a prolific passing team since QB Lamar Jackson took over, they also were able to see the funky rush offense that Baltimore implemented 6 weeks earlier.  Facing it already gave the defense a big advantage and they sold out to stop the run and it worked.  This is a much different situation having no idea the game plan that Belichick will employ here and we guess it will be a very good one.  Brady and company are VERY tough to beat at home where they are 8-0 this season (all wins but one coming by at least a TD) and they are 20-3 SU at home in playoff games with Brady under center.  The Chargers offense hasn’t looked all that great over the last month or so.  Philip Rivers looks a bit tired and his numbers have fallen off drastically.  He had a QBR of more than 80 in 6 of his first 12 games this year.  Since then he’s had 3 of his lowest QBR ratings for the season in the last 5 weeks and hasn’t topped 80 in any of those games.  He’s thrown just 5 TD passes in his last 5 games. His running game won’t be what it was earlier in the year as Melvin Gordon’s knees are both banged up and he isn’t nearly as explosive as he was earlier in the year.  Over their last 3 games the Chargers have averaged just 18 PPG on 239 YPG.  Last week they held on to win 23-17 but LA was gifted 3 turnovers by the Ravens and many of their points came on very short fields.  In fact, they scored only 1 TD in the game and their 3 of their 5 FG drives were 16-yards or less.  The Pats were the only team in the NFL with an undefeated home record (8-0) and they averaged 33 PPG at home never scoring less than 24.  They played 4 winning teams at home (Minnesota, KC, Houston, and Indy) and beat those teams by an average score of 33-23 and outgained them by an average of 78 YPG.  Defensively the Patriots got better as the year went on, just as they did last season.  They held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 17 points or less.  The only team that topped 20 points on New England in Foxboro this season was KC.  The Chargers were obviously very good on the road this year but this is the toughest situation they’ve faced as far as travel situation (3 straight road + back to back east coast) plus opponent.  LA pulled the road upset last week but that is highly unlikely this week.  In fact, teams that win in the wildcard round as an underdog are just 12-48 SU (21.39 ATS) the following week.  The Patriots get the home win and cover.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Dallas +8.5 over LA Rams, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET

We feel this is a very tough match up for the Rams.  Dallas has the better defense ranking 9th in defensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) while the Rams rank 19th.  Worse yet for the Rams, they struggle to stop the run allowing 5.1 YPC (last in the NFL) and they rank 28th in defensive efficiency vs the run.  That’s a bad match up when facing a very good running team like Dallas.  The Cowboys rank 8th in the NFL in rushing YPG and found their groove last week rushing for 164 yards in their win over Seattle.  Even more impressive, the Cowboy defense held the league’s top rated rushing attack to just 73 yards on 24 carries – less than 3 YPC.  With Todd Gurley banged up as well for the Rams, the Cowboys should have a solid advantage in the running game which will be a big key in this game.  LA only faced 3 teams this year ranked in the top 10 in rushing which makes their 5.1 YPC allowed even more concerning.  Those 3 games were vs Seattle (twice) and New Orleans.  They lost by 10 to New Orleans and both Seattle games went to the wire with LA winning close.  That looks like a precursor to what might happen in this game.   If you take a close look at the overall schedule this year, you’ll see that the Rams mopped up on the worst teams in the NFL but that wasn’t the case when they stepped up to play a good team.  In their games vs playoff teams LA was just 1-5-1 ATS (4-3 SU) with an average score of 32-32.  They outgained those teams by just 22 YPG.  Dallas also played 7 playoff teams and the Cowboys were 4-3 ATS (3-4 SU) with an average score of 17-20 but they outgained those teams by 43 YPG.  This line is a full TD (-7.5 in some spots) and the only teams the Rams beat by more than 7 this year were the Cardinals, Niners, Raiders, Lions, and Chargers.  You can see the only good team on that list is the Chargers.  Dallas, on the other hand, stepped up when they were tabbed a big underdog winning all 3 games OUTRIGHT this year when getting 7 or more points.  Since 2003, dogs of a TD or more in the divisional round have been a money making 19-11-1 ATS (63%).  Our eye test tells us Dallas was the better team over the 2nd half of the season (LA came out of the gate hot) winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss coming @ Indy a week after the Boys clinched the NFC East Title (can you say letdown spot – we were on Indy for a Top Game in that one).  The Rams ran through the first half of their schedule but lost to the Saints, Bears, and Eagles down the stretch.  On other thing to keep in mind is that while this is a home game for the Rams, you can bet the Cowboys will have more fans in the stands.  LA’s following is not great for home games.  Too many points here as we give Dallas a decent shot at the outright win.

ASA NBA play on: #570 Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8PM ET – We are not huge ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA but that will certainly factor into tonight’s game. These two just met on Thursday night in a shootout in San Antonio (pun intended) with the Spurs coming out on top by 7 in OT. The Spurs were a small dog of +1.5-points which means the Thunder should be minus 7 or 8 at home. Spurs center LaMarcus Aldridge had a career type night with 56-points which is unlikely to happen again today on the road at OKC. The Spurs were also +10 in free throw makes which now flops to the home team Thunder. The Spurs have been an ‘average’ team on the road in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.3PPG (16th in NBA) and a 7-13 SU record. San Antonio’s road defensive efficiency rankings is 24th in the league as they allow 1.139PPP. OKC is a tough place to play as the Thunder enjoy a 13-6 SU record at home with the 9th best point differential at +7.4PPG. The Thunders 4th ranked defensive efficiency rankings will be the difference here as they allow just 1.028PPG which is far superior to the Spurs numbers. OKC is 6-3 SU at home off a loss while the Spurs are just 5-15 ATS the last 20 clashes on this court. Thunder by 10.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford +4 over Arizona State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - PAC 12 GAME OF THE WEEK

Stanford has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to date having already played 9 top 100 teams (31st ranked SOS).  Thus, they are better than their 7-8 overall record in our opinion.  They have started the Pac 12 season 0-3 with losses @ UCLA, @ USC, and a 5-point home setback vs Arizona on Wednesday.  It was a tight game throughout with neither team leading by more than 5 at any point in the 2nd half.  Stanford killed themselves at the FT line making only 55% (Arizona made 88%) which was the difference in the down to the wire game.  It was Stanford’s only home loss this season (5-1 record).  The Cardinal now go on the road for 2 games after this one and cannot afford a loss here which would drop them to 0-4 in the Pac 12.  We expect an all out effort on Saturday.  ASU is playing their 2nd road game this week after beating the worst team in the league, Cal, on Wednesday.  The 80-66 final score was a bit deceiving as the Devils never led in the first half and led by just 8 with 3:00 remaining in the game.  Again, not a huge win as Cal is just 5-10 on the year and 9 of their 10 losses have come by at least 9 points.  In their 3 road games this year, ASU was whipped @ Vandy by 15 (the 10th rated team in the SEC) , beat Georgia by 2 (12th rated team in the SEC) and beat the worst team in the Pac 12 (Cal).  Now they go on the road again for the 2nd time in 4 days and might be without one of their top players, Cheatham (17 points on Wed), who has a family situation today.  The Devils are overvalued in this spot in our opinion vs a desperate home team that is better than their record.   The home team has dominated this series going 12-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings.  Take the points with Stanford. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Auburn -13.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

We’re siding with one of the top teams in the nation off a loss here.  Not only a loss but an embarrassing one.  The Tigers were whipped 82-67 @ Ole Miss on Wednesday as a 4-point favorite.  Auburn attempted 14 more shots in the game but shot uncharacteristically poor at 32%.  Ole Miss also picked up some home cooking from the refs making 27 FT’s to just 9 for the Tigers.  Really tough to overcome those two situations.  Heading home after that bad loss to a place where they are 8-0 winning by an average score of 89-60 should lead to a very nice bounce back.  They take on a Georgia team that is off a big win at home over Vandy, but a team that has struggled on the road.  The Dawgs are 1-2 in their 3 true road games beating rival Georgia Tech but losing @ Temple and @ Tennessee.  They are away from home for just the 3rd time since November 22nd.  For comparison’s sake, UGA was completely overmatched @ Tennessee losing 96-50 and today’s opponent Auburn is the #2 ranked team in the SEC just behind Tennessee.  The Bulldogs have not beaten anyone ranked inside the top 75 this year going 0-4 vs teams ranked 75 or higher (Ken Pom ratings) and Auburn is currently #13.  Not only will the talented Tigers be extra motivated here, it’s simply a bad match up for Georgia.  The Tigers thrive at creating extra opportunities through turnovers as they force opponents into giveaways almost 29% of the time (1st nationally).  The problem here is UGA is the most turnover prone team in the SEC and one of the most in the nation (314th nationally in turnover percentage).  Auburn is also the #1 shot blocking team in the nation at 20.8% which will be a problem for UGA the doesn’t shoot the 3 very well (32%) and relies on scoring inside the paint.  The Tigers have scored at least 88 points in 6 of their 8 home games and we don’t feel UGA will be able to keep up here.  Last year Auburn won both games by 14 & 17 points and while the Tigers might be a bit better than last year’s 26-8 team, we feel Georgia isn’t as good as they were a year ago.  We feel this one could turn into a blowout.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Santa Clara -1.5 over Pepperdine, Thursday at 11:00 PM ET

Veteran head coach Herb Sendek (formerly head coach at NC State & Arizona State) has this Santa Clara team playing very well right now.  After losing 5 of their first 6 games the Broncos have hit their stride winning 8 of their last 10 games.  They had won 6 in a road including wins over Pac 12 teams Washington State & USC, before finally losing last Saturday @ Gonzaga, who many consider to be the top team in the nation.  That loss dropped Santa Clara to 1-1 in the WCC with their win coming here at home 68-56 vs a very good San Diego team.  Pepperdine is also 1-1 in the WCC and off a home loss to San Francisco last Saturday.  It was a huge home game for the Waves and they have big games on deck vs San Diego and BYU.  They may not be ready for this road tilt @ Santa Clara.  Part of that might be mental coming off a huge game but much of that is the fact the Waves are simply not a good road team.  They are 0-5 SU this year in true road games and only one of those contests came vs a team ranked inside the top 175.  They shoot just 40% on the road and they run into a SC defense that allows an eFG% of just 47.5% (70th nationally) a limits their opponents to only 29% (24th nationally).  That should be a problem for Pepperdine who relies fairly heavily on the 3-point shot.  Santa Clara has won 5 of the last 6 home meetings with Pepperdine and they get the win again tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida -1.5 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

The Razors come into this game with a 10-3 record but have done most of their damage against inferior competition.  They are one of the youngest teams in the nation (339th in experience) with 4 freshmen in the rotation.  Arkansas has played the 3rd easiest slate thus far in the SEC and they already have two home losses at the hands of Georgia Tech (currently ranked the 12th best team in the ACC) and Western Kentucky who’s ranked outside the top 100 nationally.  Florida will actually be the highest rated team the Razorbacks have played this season and the catch the Gators off a loss.  You can bet the Gators will be angry coming in after blowing a 14 point lead with 10:00 minutes remaining in a 71-69 home loss to South Carolina last Saturday.  It was a game that South Carolina led for less than 3:00 minutes but won on a dunk at the buzzer.  It wasn’t a bad loss so to speak and the Gamecocks went on to beat #14 Mississippi State last night for impressive back to back wins.  Florida is a slight road favorite here despite the worse record (8-5) because unlike Arkansas, they’ve played a very tough schedule.  Their losses have come against Michigan State, Florida State, Butler, South Carolina, and Oklahoma and 4 of those games came down to the wire.  Also unlike the young Razorbacks, the Gators return 4 of their top 6 players from last year’s team that won their opening game in the NCAA tourney before losing by 3-points to Texas Tech.  This is a revenger for those returning players as they were ousted by Arkansas in the SEC tournament last season.  Florida has a great defense (ranked 9th nationally in adjusted efficiency) and they are the better offense efficiency wise as well.  Arkansas hangs their hat on creating turnovers but the fact is Florida is better at doing that than the Razors are (24.7% defensive turnover rate for Florida and 21.4% for Arkansas).  So the Gators are better offensive, better defensively and better at the one thing Arkansas thrives on.  Florida has dominated this series winning 13 of the last 15 meetings and we’ll take Florida to win this one on the road. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON St Bonaventure +1 over St Joes, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - A10 GAME OF  THE WEEK

St Bonnies has just a 4-10 record but much of that is due to their very tough schedule.  They have played 8 of their 14 games this year away from home.  At home they are 4-2 with one loss to Buffalo (one of the best teams in the nation) and the other coming way back on November 7th in OT vs a solid Bucknell team.  Their 4 home wins have come by margins of 15, 29, 31, and 42 points.  This is the Bonnies first home game in a full month after a 4 game road trip which took them to Vermont, Northeastern, Syracuse, and George Mason.  They lost all 4 of those games with 2 going to the wire.  That stretch is giving us some value here now that they are back at home.  The Bonnies are back at full strength as well with leading scorer Courtney Stockard back and playing very well after missing the first 6 games of the season.  Senior Ladarien Griffin also is back at full strength playing in the last 3 games after missing 10 straight games.  Those were 2 key contributors on last year’s team that was 26-8 and won an NCAA tourney game over UCLA.  They actually return 4 of their top 7 players from that team and now that they are healthy, this team is vastly underrated due to their record.  St Joes is 7-7 on the season but they are just the opposite of St Bonnies as they haven’t left home in over a month.  They haven’t played a road game since December 8th and they are just 2-2 their last four games, all played at home.  The Hawks are off back to back home losses by 25 vs George Mason and by 15 vs a poor George Washington team.  They are not playing well right now and we don’t expect them to find their rhythm in their first road game in a month.  St Bonaventure has a big edge defensively here ranking nearly 100 spots ahead of St Joes in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  At home they are even better allowing opponents just 60 PPG on 36% shooting.  The Bonnies average 7 more PPG at home while allowing 10 PPG fewer.  They’ve won 21 of their last 24 games at home and we’re getting line value here.  The last 2 years St Bonnies was favored by 7 & 10 points vs St Joes at home.  Now this line sits near a pick-em.  While they have struggled early (partly due to schedule & injuries) St Bonaventure is a very solid program who had 3 straight 20 win seasons entering this year.  We expect them to go on a run starting on Wednesday.  Take St Bonaventure at home.

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Baylor +2.5 over Iowa State, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN

The Cyclones jumped into the top 25 this week after taking care of Kansas at home last Saturday.  For those of you that follow CBB closely, you’ll know that Hilton Coliseum in Ames is one of the toughest places to play in the nation.  ISU has pulled off a number of big wins in that building over the last 5+ seasons.  On Saturday they shot lights out hitting 13 of their 25 three point attempts as the steamrolled the Jayhawks 77-60.  It wasn’t an ideal situation for the Jayhawks who found out about an hour before the game that their top big man Azubuike was lost for the season with a hand injury.  Tonight is a tough spot for this fairly young Iowa State team that has 2 freshmen and a sophomore in the starting line up.  They have played only 2 true road games this season getting smoked 98-84 @ Iowa (who is now 1-3 in the Big Ten) and they snuck by Oklahoma State 69-63 (Cowboys are rated as the worst team in the Big 12).  In their 2 road games ISU is shooting just 42% and allowing opponents to hit 48% of their shots.  They face a Baylor team coming off a road loss @ TCU 85-81.  The Bears are a fantastic defensive team (28th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they switch between zone & man.  It’s a defense that can be tough to prepare for if you haven’t seen it which a few of ISU’s key players have not.  Baylor is coming off their worst defensive performance of the year allowing TCU (who is now 12-1) to hit 56% of their shots on Saturday.  Even with that, Baylor had a shot missing a 3-pointer to tie with just 8 seconds remaining.  We expect the Bears to play very well defensively after struggling on Saturday.  We also feel that ISU, who finally leaves the comfort of Hilton Coliseum, will not shoot lights out again after doing so vs Kansas on Saturday.  The value is with Baylor here.  They were favored by 9 each of the last 2 seasons at home vs Iowa State.  Now they are getting points.  The Bears pull the upset here.

ASA 9Star play on: #588 Sacramento Kings -5 over Orlando Magic, 10PM ET – We like the under-rated Sacramento Kings at home minus the points over the visiting Orlando Magic tonight. The Kings have faced a brutal schedule of late with games against the Warriors, Nuggets, Blazers, Lakers (twice), Clippers and Thunder in seven of their last ten games. The other three opponents in that 10-game stretch are the Pelicans, Grizzlies and T’Wolves who aren’t cupcakes. Now Sac-Town steps WAY down to face a 17-22 SU Magic team that has struggled on the road. Twelve of Orlando’s seventeen wins this season have come against the East, making them 5-12 SU against the West. In their last six road games the Magic are 1-5 SU win the lone win coming against the Bulls. The other five losses have come by -10, -17, -25, -10 and -25 points. Sacramento has quietly put together a 19-20 SU record on the season and sit just a game-and-a-half out of the Playoff picture. The Kings are 12-17 against the West but 7-3 SU versus the East. The overall metrics don’t give the Kings much of an advantage here but when you factor in the strength of schedule (Kings 4th, Magic 25th) it shows the discrepancy between the two teams. We’ll call for a double-digit win by Sacramento.

ASA CFB 10* PLAY ON Clemson (+) over Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - We have these teams rated nearly even (Bama should be 2.5 point favorite in our ratings) so whoever happened to be getting points in this game, we feel the value is with the dog. Clemson absolutely dominated Notre Dame in the semi’s winning 30-3 and outgaining the Irish by almost 300 yards. That’s nothing new for this team as they outgained every opponent but one by at least 144 yards. Bama beat Oklahoma 45-34 but outgained the Sooners by just 57 yards. The overall numbers of these teams for the season are almost identical. Clemson averaged 531 YPG on 7.3 YPP. Alabama averaged 530 YPG on 7.9 YPP. Defensively the Tigers allowed just 280 YPG on 4.1 YPP. The Tide just 308 YPG on 4.7 YPP. So for the season Clemson was +251 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Bama was +222 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Clemson’s point differential checked in at +32 PPG. The Tide was +31 PPG. You get the point. Pretty much as close as you could be for a full season as far as statistics go. If we break it down vs good teams only (bowl teams) entering the post-season Clemson had faced 10 bowl teams and outgained them by an average of 236 YPG. Alabama had faced 8 bowl teams and outgained them by 212 yards. Again, very close. Many stick to the rhetoric and Saban is simply tough to top in bowl games. However, the facts tell a different story. Saban is just 3-6 ATS his last 7 bowl/playoff games. Clemson head man Dabo Swinney, on the other hand, is a near perfect 8-1 ATS his last 9 post-season games. You say the SEC was much tougher than the ACC? The SEC is currently 6-5 in their bowl games while the ACC is 5-5. While we will agree the SEC is better, the difference isn’t as drastic as most might think. Bama has a tendency to intimidate opponents beating many of them before the game even starts. They are already in the heads of their opponents before the first kick. That’s not the case with Clemson. The Tigers have no fear of the vaunted Tide. They have already proven the can beat this team in big games. They have met twice in the last three years in the National Championship game and both games went to the wire with Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 & Clemson winning 35-31 in 2017. Last year they met in the semi-final and while Bama won 24-6, it was closer than that as the two were separated by 70 total yards and the Tide returned an interception for a TD in the 4th quarter to break the game open. Breaking down the yardage in their 3 meetings over the last 3 seasons, Clemson actually has the advantage with 1250 total yards to 1110 for Alabama. We predict this one comes down to the wire just as their last two National Championship battles did. Taking the points with Clemson is the value play here.

ASA Play on: #574 Phoenix Suns +2 over Charlotte Hornets, 8PM ET – We don’t expect Charlotte to have much left in their tank after a game last night in Denver and the Suns will crack the win column at home. The Hornets defense has been bad of late as they’ve given up 122 and 123 their last two games and over that in four of their last six games. Phoenix has lost five straight games, but it came against some of the best teams in the league. Now with a legitimate chance to win at home against a mid-tier Eastern Conference team they’ll get it done. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The Hornets are on a 0-4 ATS streak on the road and are just 1-5 ATS their last six meetings in Phoenix. The Suns get a much-needed home win on Sunday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 6:00 PM ET

We were on Memphis on Thursday night and picked up a nice win as the topped an over-rated Wichita State team 85-74.  On Sunday we’ll switch gears and play against the Tigers on the road.  Memphis had not been away from home since December 1st.  They are on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7, however all 7 of those games have been at FedEx Forum in Memphis.  They only have one win during that stretch vs a team ranked in the top 120.  If you break it down even further, the 9-5 Tigers have a grand total of 2 wins vs teams ranked in the top 100.  Those are both at home vs #85 Yale in OT and vs #81 South Dakota State.  Overall Memphis is just 2-5 vs the top 100 and 4 of their 5 losses have come by at least 9 points.  They have played only ONE true road game this season losing by 9 @ LSU back in November.  They are just 1-4 overall in games away from home this year (road or neutral).  Now in the comforts of their home arena for over a month, the Tigers must travel to Houston who is a perfect 14-0 on the season.  Memphis has rolled up some big offensive numbers during this stretch at home vs poor defenses.  Now they face a Houston team that ranks 12th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 2nd nationally in eFG% defense.  The faced a similar defense back in December 1st taking on Texas Tech and scored a season low 67 points.  We think Memphis struggles on offense on the road vs a Houston defense that is allowing just 58 PPG on 35% shooting at home.  The Cougars are 6-0 this year vs top 100 teams and their home wins have come by an average score of 75-58.  Memphis thrives on up tempo play (7th nationally in tempo) and creating turnovers.  The problem here is, Houston will slow this game down (306th in tempo) and the veteran Cougars, 4 starters are upperclassmen, they don’t turn the ball over very much (just 17%).  The Cougars have been a covering machine going 19-7-2 ATS their last 28 games.  We look for Houston to completely take Memphis out of their game and put up a double digit win on Sunday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET on CBS Sports Network

San Diego State played fairly well at the beginning of the season, but they have really fallen off as of late.  On top of that, most of those poor performances have been at home.  The Aztecs have not played a road game in a month.  They are just 3-3 their last 6 games with their wins coming against Cal State Dominguez Hills (no rating), BYU, and Cal State Northridge (ranked 303).  Their win over BYU was solid but that is their only good performance since December 1.  Their most recent two games were both at home and included a 21 point loss to Brown and a 5-point win over a terrible CS Northridge team.  The Aztecs trailed by 30 points at home vs Brown before losing by 21.  On Wednesday SDSU was down by 17 points with just 14 minutes remaining vs CS Northridge before battling back for the unimpressive 5 point win.  Traveling to play an improving Boise team will be tough.  The Broncos are just 6-8 on the season but they have played the majority of their games (8) away from home.  After losing at home to Oregon last Saturday, the Broncos bounced back with a very solid performance and an 11-point win @ Wyoming on Wednesday.  They allowed just 55 points in that game and veteran head coach Leon Rice stated after the game he feels his team is really picking it up on the defensive end of the court. “We’re becoming a really good defensive team,” Rice said after the win.  The Broncos have allowed their opponents to hit just 40% of their shots over their last 4 games.  At home they allow only 39% for the season.  This is an experienced Boise team that returns 4 of their top 7 players from last year’s 26-9 team.  Because of their struggles early, we feel they are a bit underrated right now.  We feel SDSU is just the opposite.  Boise has a great home court advantage winning 34 of their last 40 games here at Taco Bell Arena.  These teams are headed in opposite directions and we’ll side with Boise laying the small number.

ASA play on: #525 Dallas Mavericks +5.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35PM CT – Doesn’t this line look sooooo inviting to take Boston at home over a Mavs team with a 3-16 SU road record? Yeah, that’s why we’ll bet who the oddsmakers don’t want us to bet. Dallas is back to full strength with Wes Matthews and Dennis Smith Jr. back in the line up and both played well in their last game out against Charlotte. Even though the Mavs have been bad on the road, they have a differential of just -4.9PPG, which should be far worse considering their straight up record. Let’s look who Dallas has visited recently. They just beat Charlotte, lost at OKC by 20-points the night after beating them at home. Prior to those two games they lost at New Orleans by 2, at Portland by 3 in OT, at Golden State by 4, at LA Clippers by 4 and at Denver by 8. Those are some of the best teams in the West and they were in every game to the final buzzer. Tonight, they take on the Celtics without Kyrie and Aron Baynes, which is significant for their front court depth against the Mavs. In their last five games the Mavs have better overall efficiency stats than Boston and are playing well right now. The Celtics have a 12-5 SU home record this year but have let down against other losing teams like Phoenix, Orlando and New York who are worse than this Dallas team. The Mavs are 15-8 ATS as a Dog this season and have covered 8 of the last nine meetings in Boston.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Francisco -2 over St Mary's - Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

Talk about a team flying under the radar.  San Francisco comes in with a 12-2 record including a perfect 8-0 at home.  Included in those games are two wins over Pac 12 teams Stanford & California.  Their two losses came at the hands for Buffalo by 4 (game played in Ireland) and by 2 points @ UC Santa Barbara last Saturday.  Tight losses vs very good teams.  UCSB is the top team in the Big West who was 23-9 last year.  Buffalo is the top team in the MAC with a 12-1 record this year including wins @ Syracuse & @ West Virginia.  The Dons are a veteran team (66th nationally in experience) that is fantastic defensively (18th nationally eFG% defense).  They are tough to guard as well with 4 starters averaging more than 10 PPG.  The Dons return the majority of their main players (75% of last year’s minutes are back) from a team that was 22-17 and beat a then #15 ranked St Mary’s here 70-63 last season.  The Gaels are down this year.  They come in with a 9-6 record and lost 5 of their top 7 scorers from last year’s team.  The 6 losses already this season matched their season total a year ago (30-6 record last season).  They are just 2-4 this year in road/neutral games.  St Mary’s is coming off a blowout win on Saturday vs a terrible San Jose State team.  San Fran, as we mentioned, is coming off a rare loss which sets this one up nicely.  The Dons are 8-0 this year at home and have won 17 of last 18 here at Sobrato Center.  They beat a MUCH better St Mary’s team here last year so we have no doubt they can win this one as well.  This number is too small in our opinion and we like San Francisco at home.

ASA 10Star play on: #512 Memphis Grizzlies -6 over Detroit Pistons, 8PM ET – Let’s start with scheduling as the Pistons are playing their 3rd game in four days and the second night of a back-to-back. Detroit got beat badly in Milwaukee last night 98-121. In their last five games, three of which were against teams with a combined 41-68 SU record, the Pistons have allowed opponents to shoot over 50% from the field and shot just 41% themselves. In those last five games they’ve been beaten by an average of 10.8PPG. The Pistons have a negative point differential of -6PPG on the road this season which is 23rd in the NBA. Memphis is coming off a tough road loss in Houston and will look to rebound at home tonight. The Grizz are just 2-3 SU their last five games but it came against a tough schedule with the lone exception being Cleveland. Memphis is closing out a stretch of seven of eight games against teams with a .500 or better record. They must take advantage of a soft January schedule which includes four games in their next six that are below .500. Despite the tough schedule lately (last five) the Grizzlies are shooting over 47% and holding opponents to just 42%. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and in their three most recent road games they’ve been beating by an average of 21PPG. Memphis has faced a brutal schedule at home this season so their home point differential of just +2.1PPG is very misleading. They’ll get a double digit win in this one.

ASA 9* PLAY ON Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5 goals +$155: The Flames are favored on the money line in the -175 range for good reason tonight. Of course they are expected to win but it is hard to find value in laying those types of prices. With that being said, we like the value available by utilizing the puck line and laying the 1.5 goals Wednesday. 17 of Calgary's 24 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more goals and this includes each of their last 3 victories. As for the Red Wings, they have lost 9 of their last 10 games. So, as you can see, a loss is likely for Detroit and the value is in forecasting that loss to come by a big margin. With the Red Wings having allowed 19 goals in their last 4 games, a blowout defeat on home ice would not at all be a surprise. The Flames have scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 8 road games. Last season's two match-ups were decided by a total of 9 goals. With the Flames playing this game with revenge (courtesy of an 8-2 loss at Detroit in their most recent visit), look for Calgary to respond with a huge effort tonight and win this one by a multiple goal margin.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Butler -9 over Georgetown, Wed at 7:00 PM ET

We expect a huge bounce back from the Bulldogs as they come off their worst loss since 1994.  Butler traveled to Florida on Saturday, a team they had already beaten this year, and the Gators went off winning 77-43.  It was the perfect storm with the motivated Gators shooting lights out at home (53%) and the normally solid shooting Bulldogs hitting just 30%.  After outrebounding Florida in their other meeting this year, Butler was destroyed to the tune of 43-14 on the boards.  No effort whatsoever from the Bulldogs which is not the norm for this team.  Their coach Lavell Jordan and every player on this team was embarrassed following that effort on Saturday.  While they are just 2-4 in games away from home (away/neutral) the Bulldogs are a perfect 7-0 at home at Hinkle Fieldhouse where they face Georgetown tonight.  Hinkle provides one of the best home court advantages in college basketball and Butler has won 60 of their last 72 games here.  They catch a G’Town team that has a solid 10-3 record but has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation this year ranking 313th in SOS.  The Hoyas have played only 3 top 100 teams this year and they are 1-2 in those games with their lone win coming over #77 Liberty.  They have also not been away from home in almost a month with their last road game coming on December 8th.  On top of that the Hoyas look like they will not be at 100% for this one with leading scorer Mac McClung and starting forward Trey Mourning may both be out here.  McClung, a freshman averaging 13 PPG, was out last game due to an injured ankle or at least that was the story they went with.  He was not in the building for the game and there are rumors floating around that he may look to transfer.  Either way, not a great situation.  Mourning is still in concussion protocol.  Butler shoots it very well at home (51% overall & 40% from deep) with an average margin of victory at 17 points.  Facing a team that hasn’t been on the road in nearly a month & off their worst loss in 25 years, this one sets up for a potential Butler rout and we expect at least a double digit win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON St Johns -1.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET

Love this spot for St Johns.  We went against the Red Storm on Saturday and came up one point short as they lost @ Seton Hall 76-74 as a 3-point dog.  We have to admit the Johnnies played much better than we thought they would.  They were 12-0 coming into the game but hadn’t played a great schedule and nearly all of their games had been at home.  They were taking on a Seton Hall team that had already beaten the likes of Kentucky & Maryland (on the road).  St Johns proves us wrong as they led on the road for nearly the entire game including holding a 10 point lead with just 6:00 remaining in the game.  In fact the Pirates largest lead of the game was just 2 points.  The way the game ended should have St Johns motivated here as they lost on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  The Red Storm is now back at home where they have an average margin of victory of 18 PPG shooting nearly 50% from the field while allowing just 39%.  Marquette has moved up the rankings all the way to #16 on the back of a 8 game winning streak.  They have been doing their damage at home as this team has not left Milwaukee since November 23rd!  They are just 1-2 in their 3 games away from home (away & neutral) and in their only true road game @ Indiana they Golden Eagles were rolled 96-73.  They rely very heavily on the 3-point shot (35% of their points) which can be tough to maintain on the road, especially when you’ve played at home for over a month straight.  Last year the Johnnies were favored by a similar number (-2) and won 86-78.  They home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings and there is a reason the unranked team (St Johns) is favored over the #16 team in the country.  Lay the small number.

ASA PLAY 9* ON LSU (-) over UCF, Tuesday at 1 PM ET - There is a lot of focus on defensive personnel that are out for this game for LSU. So much focus in fact that many are forgetting about the most important injury situation relating to this game. That of course is the fact that UCF star QB McKenzie Milton is out with that devastating knee injury he suffered in November. The Tigers have played a much tougher schedule than the Knights have this season. Additionally, the few times when Central Florida has stepped up in level of opposition, they have not been overly impressive. The four toughest match-ups that UCF had were facing Memphis twice, Cincinnati once, and Temple once. Note that the Owls put up 670 yards on the Knights! That is the same Temple team that got smoked in the bowls by Duke. As for the win over the Bearcats, the scoreboard showed a 25 point edge but note that UCF only won the yardage battle by 23 yards! Certainly a bit of a phony final and the two games against Memphis saw the Knights have to rally in BOTH games. UCF rallied to beat the Tigers by 1 point in October. Then, in the AAC Championship game, the final score makes it look like the Knights dominated but Central Florida was down huge at the half and the game was still a 1-point game with under 7 minutes to go in the contest. Keep in mind that was against a Memphis team that, like Temple, also lost their bowl game and the Tigers were out-gained by 151 yards by Wake Forest in that bowl defeat. The point is that LSU is, by far, a tougher opponent than UCF has faced all year and this would be true even if the ENTIRE Tigers defense was made up of their 2nd stringers! LSU comes from the powerful SEC of course and the Tigers only losses came against Florida (blasted Michigan in bowl game), Alabama (blasted Oklahoma in CFB Playoff semi-final), and Texas A & M (an epic game decided in 7 overtimes). In our opinion, the Knights (with a back-up) quarterback will struggle to hang around in this game and by the second half the Tigers will wear them down and eventually win this one by a margin of at least two touchdowns. What is the motivation for LSU? UCF is 12-0 on the season. They won't be undefeated after the Tigers are done with them. LSU is the play.

ASA PLAY 9* ON Northwestern (+) over Utah, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Utes are expected to have QB Tyler Huntley (broken collarbone) back for this game but there is certain to be some rust as he has not seen game action since November 3rd. Utah has been held to 147 passing yards or less in 3 of their last 5 games and that is a key concern here because their running game has not been the same since losing running back Zach Moss for the season with an ankle injury. The Utes averaged only 3.4 yards per carry in their last 3 games. Northwestern wrapped up the season with strong running as they totaled over 400 yards in their final two games and averaged 5.9 yards per carry! The Wildcats defense had a poor game versus Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. However, Northwestern entered that game having allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their 6 prior games! Utah lost 10-3 in the PAC-12 Championship and the Utes entered that game having allowed 25 points or more in 4 of their 6 prior games. You can see why we like having the TD underdog here when you see how these teams have performed in the latter half of the season. Speaking of underdog value, if you had played the underdog in all 12 of Northwestern's regular season games (prior to Big Ten Championship) you would not have lost a single bet as the dog was 11-0-1 ATS in the Wildcats dozen regular season games. Northwestern's outright upset wins included defeating Wisconsin and winning at Iowa and at Michigan State this season. We are forecasting another upset here and will gladly grab the points being offered. Northwestern is the play.

ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Michigan State (+) over Oregon, Monday at 3:00 PM ET - We really like the defensive and coaching advantage in this game. MSU head man Mark Dantonio is a very good coach and with extra time to prepare he has been money. The Spartans are 5-1 both SU & ATS their last 6 bowl games with their only loss & non-cover coming against Alabama. Oregon’s Mario Cristobal is in his 2nd season in Eugene and while he is a very good recruiter, we’re not wild about him as a head coach. He had only 2 winning seasons (8-5 & 7-6) in his 6 seasons as head coach @ Florida International from 2007 to 2012. His two bowl appearances with FIU were not very impressive as the slipped by Toledo 34-32 as a 2-point favorite and the Rockets outgained FIU by 130 yards in that game (FIU had 89 yard kick return for TD by now Indy WR TY Hilton). The following year Cristobal took FIU to another bowl and lost by 10 to Marshall as a 4-point favorite. Last year, his first with Oregon, the Ducks went into their bowl game vs Boise as a 7-point favorite and lost by 10. Cristobal, unlike Dantonio, has not shown the ability to have his team ready for bowl games losing in 2 of his 3 post-season appearances as a favorite. MSU defensively has been great this year. They rank #1 nationally vs the rush allowing just 81 YPG on 2.7 YPC. The Ducks rely very heavily on the run averaging 41 carries per game (35th nationally in rushing attempts per game). Using a successful running game to set up QB Justin Herbert and the passing game probably won’t be an option here for the Ducks. MSU should keep them one dimensional. The Spartan offense definitely had their problems this season. However, injuries had a lot to do with that. QB Brian Lewerke had a shoulder injury down the stretch and was not anywhere near 100% as he split time with Rocky Lombardi. Lewerke has had time to rest his shoulder and it’s much better than it has been as he gets the start here. Starting RB LJ Scott was injured much of the season and he is healthy for this game. Sparty has had a month off to tweak their offense and now with some key contributors back, we expect them to play much better. They are facing an Oregon defense that allowed 31 PPG vs the 6 bowl teams they faced this year. By comparison, the MSU defense allowed 21 points or less in 9 of their 12 games this year. Sparty played the much tougher schedule this year facing the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and even a very good Utah State team in the non-conference slate. The Pac 12 was down again this year and they continue to flame out in bowl games. This year the Pac 12 is already 1-2 SU in bowls but 0-3 ATS. The conference is now 2-14 ATS their last 16 bowl appearances. The Pac 12 is just 2-10 SU their last 12 bowl games dating back to last season. We like Michigan State to take this game outright.

ASA 10* Play on: #554 Toronto Raptors -10.5 over Chicago Bulls, 6PM ET - *Short analysis on NFL Sunday* - We like the setting here with the Bulls off a rare win on the road in Washington, while the Raptors are off a poor showing and loss in Orlando. Expect a reverse of fortunes for both teams here. Toronto (26-11) is arguably one of the top five teams in the NBA right now and have an average home differential of +7.6PPG which is 7th best in the league. Chicago (10-26) is arguably one of the worst teams in the NBA right now with the 6th worst road point differential of minus – 8.5PPG. When we compare the Raptors home games against similar opponents to the Bulls this season here is what we find: +16 points vs. Cavs, +10 vs. Heat, +18 vs. Wizards, +16 vs. Knicks, +21 vs. Hornets, +12 vs. Cavs. In other words, asking Toronto to win by double-digits at home against this level of competition is not a stretch. The Bulls have suffered some ugly road losses to similar teams to the Raptors this season: Lost to 76ers by 19-points, at Boston -29, at Milwaukee -19, at Houston -16, at OKC -25. Toronto was favored by this same margin in Chicago earlier this year and won by 39! Bulls just 2-7 ATS off a win this season and they’ll get dealt a beatdown today north of the border.

ASA's 10* NFL PLAY ON Cleveland +7.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Aren’t you wondering why the oddsmakers have not made this line higher than it is? Shouldn’t the Ravens, who must win to get in be a TD chalk at home? The oddsmakers reluctance to move this to minus -7 tells us enough as they can’t afford to put it on a key number and get pounded by the sharps. The Browns with Baker Mayfield continue to play well with a 5-1 SU record their last six games. A win here gives the Browns their first winning season since 2007 which is a big deal for Cleveland. Cleveland dominated the Bengals last week in a 8-point win but the Browns outgained Cincy by nearly 300 yards. The Browns offense is averaging more than 7YPPL in 4 of their last six games and have averaged over 8YPPL twice. The Ravens win and get in but winning by this margin is tough to ask. Baltimore is 5-1 SU with Lamar Jackson at QB and they’ve done it with a dominating ground game averaging 219YPG their last six. The Browns though have a solid rush defense that has been much better of late. In the past three weeks the Browns have faced the Panthers and Bronco’s rush offenses that rank in the top 11 of the league in rushing yards per game. The Browns held the Panthers to just 96 yards rushing and Denver to 32. The Ravens were just favored by -8.5 points at home over Tampa who is far worse that the Browns at this point. Make the smart play here and grab the points.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Kansas City -14 over Oakland, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Chiefs need this game to lock up the AFC West.  A loss could send them all the way down to the wildcard.  We expect them to put up huge numbers offensively against a Raider defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 6.2.  These two met 4 weeks ago and KC put up 40 points and Mahomes had a huge day with 4 TD passes.  KC was up 17 in the 4th quarter in that game and the Oakland offense rallied and put up 33 points for the game.  While we anticipate similar numbers from KC here (40+ points) we do not think Oakland will play nearly as well on offense.  It’s a bad spot for the Raiders coming off a huge Monday night win over Denver in what might have been the final game ever in Oakland.  Now on a short week in a meaningless game on the road we look for the Raiders to just go through the motions as they play out the final game of the season.  The Raiders had a similar situation a few weeks ago when they upset Pittsburgh at home only to go on the road the next week and lose 30-16 to the lowly Bengals.  The Oakland offense has been OK at home this year but on the road they’ve done next to nothing.  They have not topped 23 points on the road this season and they are averaging just 15 PPG away from home this season.  Their last 4 road losses have all come by at least 2 TD’s and two of those losses were Cincinnati & San Fran, two of the worst teams in the league.  They have been held to 17 or less in 4 of their 7 road games.  That won’t come close to getting it done here against the potent and motivated Chiefs.  This one will get ugly.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line opened Buffalo -3 now up to -4.5 and even -5 at spots which we feel is justified. Miami was eliminated from playoffs last week as they couldn’t beat a bad Jax team at home losing 17-7 so we don’t expect much of an effort here.  We do feel Buffalo will be motivated here off a loss in New England and playing with revenge against the Dolphins from a loss a few weeks back. In that earlier meeting in Miami the Fins won 21-17 as -3.5 point favorites but were outgained 415 yards to 175 yards by the Bills and were outplayed in nearly every facet of the game.  Miami was a “fake” 7-7 heading into last week as they had been outgained in 9 straight games and they are minus 100 YPG on the season (Buffalo -5 YPG for comparison). The Bills are 3-4 SU their last 7 games but have outgained those 7 opponents by combined 578 yards (+82 YPG). The Dolphins are 30th in total offense (294 YPG) while Buffalo is 2nd in total defense (298 YPG) so don’t expect Miami to have any success offensively today. Miami is just 1-6 SU on the road with all 6 losses coming by at least 10 points. Will Miami be motivated in cold weather (30 degrees) now that they are out of playoffs? We bet not! Play on the Bills minus the points. 

ASA play on: #548 LA Clippers -3.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 10:35PM ET – Both teams played last night but the Clippers were at home in L.A. while the Spurs were in the higher altitude of Denver. The Clippers were able to spread their minutes out in a win over the Lakers as only two starters played more than 30 minutes. The Spurs had three players over 30+ minutes in a close game with the Nuggets. San Antonio has really struggled this year when playing without rest with an 0-6 SU record. Dating back to the start of the 2017 season the Spurs have the worst record in the NBA against the spread when playing on consecutive nights with a 7-14 ATS record. The Spurs haven’t been great on the road of late either with a 2-6 SU record their last eight away and the two wins came against 15-19 Orlando and 10-26 Chicago. The Clippers are playing well right now with wins in 4 of their last five games and the lone loss was in Golden State. L.A.’s efficiency differentials are certainly trending in the right direction and they have a positive point differential of +8.6PPG their last five. Lastly, we like the value here as these same two teams met a few weeks back with the Spurs favored by 3-points at home. That should translate to the Clippers being 5 or 6-point chalks here. By the way, the Clippers were blown out in that game and haven’t forgotten. Bet the L.A. Clippers tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State +2 over Oregon, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on CBS Sports Network

We felt the Ducks came into this season overvalued ranking in the top 20 in most pre-season polls and undeserved in our opinion.  They were a solid 23-13 a year ago but lost a number of key players and they are relying on young players this year.  More so in this game as they have lost a few key contributors as of late.  Starting forward Kenny Wooten was injured in their most recent game – a 10 point loss @ Baylor – and he is out.  Freshman and leading scorer Bol Bol has missed 3 games and they are not sure if he can come back from a foot problem here.  Even if he does, he won’t be 100%.  Starter Abu Kigab is also out with an injury for this game.  The Ducks will be relying here on a number of players who’ve seen very little action this year as their bench is ultra-thin due to the injuries.  As we discuss our thoughts on Boise, you’ll see they are the direct opposite of Oregon.  We feel the Broncos are undervalued due to their 5-7 record.  This team is talented.  They  return 4 of their top 7 players from last year’s team that was 23-9.  They also added one of the top JC transfers in the nation in RJ Williams who leads the Broncos in scoring at 15 PPG.  They’ve had a tough start with 7 of their 12 games coming away from home.  Four of their seven losses have come by 3 points or less and they’ve played some tough teams on the road including this Oregon team.  Yes this is a rematch from a game played on December 15th.  That game was in Eugene and the Ducks won 66-54 – a game that BSU shot just 35% while Oregon hit 49% of their shots.  The Ducks also got some home cookin’ and made 9 more FT’s.  Despite that, the game was close throughout with OU leading by single digits most of the 2nd half.  The Ducks have played 2 true road games this year and lost them both.  On the other side, Boise has a fantastic home court advantage at the Taco Bell Arena where they are 34-5 SU their last 39!  Very rarely do we get Boise as a home dog and we love this spot.  The Broncos win outright at home.

ASA PLAY ON 10* TOP Washington State (-) over Iowa State, Friday at 9 PM ET - These teams have nearly identical stats on the defensive side of the ball but the Cougars hold a large edge on offense. While the Cyclones averaged 26.8 points on only 359 yards per game this season, Washington State piled up 461.8 yards per game leading the way to producing an average of 38.3 points per game. Keep in mind that while the Cougars have had Gardner Minshew at QB all season long, Iowa State is now using a quarterback that was listed 3rd on the depth chart entering this season! The only two losses that Washington State suffered this season were by 3 points at USC in a game in which they outgained the Trojans by nearly 100 yards and then in the Apple Cup battle versus Washington that was played in snowy conditions that didn't allow Minshew to continue his strong late season run. There certainly won't be any concern with weather in this one as it is played indoors at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX. This is a big edge for the team with the better offense and that is certainly the Cougars in this match-up. The Cyclones do have some injury concerns in the secondary which could impact their depth in this one and that spells trouble against a passing attack that totaled at least 319 passing yards in every single game this season other than the "snow game" in their season finale. Iowa State is 0-3 ATS this season in non-conference games. The Cougars are 8-3 SU and ATS (including 4-1 SU and ATS this season) in games with a point spread in a range of +3 to -3. With the line move on this game also working in favor of the Cougars this is a fantastic value spot. In our opinion, this is the best team Washington State head coach Mike Leach has had during his time with the Cougars and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. Certainly it is the best defense Leach has had and we have a feeling the Cyclones will struggle to score points in this game and the Cougars pull away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Washington State is the play.

ASA play on: #512 Charlotte Hornets -4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7PM ET – We are not big ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA and even though that applies here, it’s not our motivation for betting Charlotte. No, our reason for betting the Hornets is line value. In Brooklyn the other night the Nets were favored by -1.5 points. That means the Hornets should be 7 or 8 here. Because Brooklyn is on a 9-1 SU run their last ten games it has forced the oddsmakers to over-correct here. The Nets have a very respectable road differential of -.6PPG with an 8-8 record but only two of their eight road wins have come against teams with winning records. Charlotte is 12-7 SU at home this year with a +5.1PPG point differential with their last two home wins coming by double-digits. Charlotte has a significantly better efficiency defense and is slightly better in offensive efficiency ratings.  The Hornets are 7-3 SU at home when coming off a loss this year and they’ll get a win tonight by more than the suggested number. We won’t blame Brooklyn if they look past the team they just beat with Milwaukee on deck tomorrow night. Lay the points.

#242 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Purdue (+) over Auburn, Friday at 1:30 PM ET – MUSIC CITY BOWL - We know Purdue is thrilled to be here. They will be well prepared and very motivated to take on their SEC foe. Head coach Jeff Brohm, who is very well liked by the players, gave this team an extra boost by turning down the Louisville job (Brohm’s alma mater) after the season to stay with the Boilers. Positive energy abounds around this program and we expect them to play very well on Friday. Auburn? Maybe not so much. The Tigers had much higher aspirations this year but struggled to get to a 7-5 record. They were in the Sugar Bowl and Peach Bowl the last 2 seasons and now they are relegated to the Music City Bowl. Their coach Gus Malzahn is just 1-4 SU in bowl games as this team often underachieves in the post-season. On top of that, Malzahn was on the hot seat for much of the season but will now remain as head coach which we’re not sure is a great thing. His offensive coordinator has already left for the same position under Les Miles at Kansas. Their starting QB Jarrett Stidham will play but has already declared for the draft so we’re not sure he’ll be 100% focused on this one. Since the opening weekend when the Tigers slipped by Washington 21-16, this team has beaten a grand total of ONE team that was bowl eligible. That was a 28-24 win over Texas A&M, a game Auburn was outgained by 123 yards AND trailed 24-14 with less than 6:00 remaining in the game. This team was outgained in every SEC game but two this year (outgained Ole Miss by 50 & Tennessee by 37). Purdue has great momentum after starting the season 0-3 and fighting their way back and into a bowl game. Four of their six losses came by 4 points or less and only once this season were they beaten badly and the game was out of reach. Unlike Malzahn, Purdue’s Jeff Brohm has been a very good bowl coach with a perfect 3-0 SU record in his time at Western Kentucky & Purdue. They have impressive wins this year over bowlers Ohio State, Iowa, and Boston College. While the Boilers have hung around in the same neighborhood stat’s wise vs other bowl teams getting outgained by just 10 YPG, the Tigers have been dominated by other good teams getting outgained by 123 YPG vs other bowl teams. We’ll take the rising team as a dog over the team that is likely to go through the motions here.

ASA 10* play on: Portland Trailblazers +9 @ Golden State Warriors, 10:35PM ET – We are going contrarian here as most bettors will want to come back and bet Golden State off that humiliating loss to the Lakers on Christmas day. But knowing Vegas will adjust the number for that result we will grab the added value with the Blazers. Let’s consider this, earlier in November the Warriors hosted the Blazers and were favored by -1.5 points. Granted that was without Steph Curry but still this is a way over-adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Warriors are not playing as well this year as last and the numbers don’t lie. That doesn’t mean we don’t feel this team will be in the Finals this year, but they just aren’t playing well right now. Golden State last year on this date had the best home point differential in the NBA at +9.7PPG. This year that average has fallen to just +4.5PPG, 14th best in the league. The Warriors are 7-4 SU (4-7 ATS) off a loss this year but the margin of victory is just +4.1PPG which clearly won’t get a cover here.  Portland is also coming off a horrible showing in Utah and will bounce back with a better effort here. The Blazers are 8-6 SU off a beat this year with an average MOV of +1.4PPG. Portland does have a negative road differential of -6.4PPG on the season but that will get us the money here. The Trailblazers haven’t been an underdog of this size all season long. Portland was 3-0 ATS against the Warriors last year with two outright wins and they’ll keep this game close throughout.

ASA play on: L.A. Lakers +4 @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET – If you’ve been an ASA follower then you know we love to play on teams the immediate game following an injury to a super star. There are two key factors for this thought process. One, the line gets over-corrected because of public perception on the loss of a marquee player. These same two teams met in early November on this same court and the Lakers were favored by -5.5 points and won by 15. Now without LeBron the Lakers are getting +3.5 points. That’s tremendous value! Two, typically after losing a star player the other guys on the team take their games to another level to prove a point and they have an increased role. L.A. has a lot more weapons on this roster than I gave them credit for early in the season. Kuzma is going to be a special player in the NBA someday and continues to grow. Ball has proven he’s a solid player in this league despite not being a great shooter. They have decent depth now with Hart, Chandler, Stephenson and Zubac not to mention McGee who could be back for this game after a bought with the flu. The Laker have the much better defense in this match up with the 10th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Sacramento’s 22nd ranked. In terms of offensive efficiency, the Kings hold a slight edge with the 15th ranked unit compared to the Lakers 17th ranked. Sacramento is 9-7 SU at home this season but are just one of 9 teams in the entire NBA that has a negative home differential (-2.4PPG). The Lakers on the other hand have a positive road differential of +1.2PPG which is 8th best. The Kings have struggled when playing on back-to-back nights having lost 5 straight to the spread in that role, and the average loss margin has been double-digits. Without LeBron in the lineup this game loses a lot of its luster for the Kings who will take L.A. for granted. That’s perfect for us! The Lakers win this road game without LBJ.  

#235 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Duke (+) over Temple, Thursday at 1:30 PM ET – INDEPENDENCE BOWL We feel the coaching mismatch in this game is fairly significant. Duke’s head man David Cutcliffe is a veteran whose been at Duke for 11 years & was the head coach at Ole Miss prior to that. His teams at both schools have performed very well in bowl games with an 9-2 ATS record. He prepares them well with the extra time off and that shows in his 82% ATS bowl mark. His counterpart on Thursday will be interim coach Ed Foley as Temple head coach Geoff Collins has moved on to take the job at Georgia Tech. Foley was the interim coach for Temple in their bowl game 2 years ago and they lost by 8 points to Wake Forest as a 12 point favorite. Temple’s main assistant coaches have remained in place which helps but many will be looking for new jobs (or have been already) as Miami DC Manny Diaz takes over starting on Friday. That has to cause some distraction for this team. We love this situation for the Devils as well. They were absolutely embarrassed in their season finale losing 59-7 to Wake Forest. Not only that, Duke was favored by 9 in that game! It was a bad spot for Duke as they were coming off Clemson a week earlier and took and up and coming Wake team for granted (Wake already beat Memphis in their bowl game). It was Cutcliffe’s worst loss of his career and you can bet his team wants redemption for that terrible and effortless performance. Temple, on the other hand, hasn’t been challenged in a month and a half when they beat Houston on November 11th. They were double digit favorites in their final two games vs USF and UConn and won those games by 10 & 50 points. The Owl defense has impressive numbers, however they did have problems with mobile QB’s allowing Houston to put up 49, Boston College 45, UCF 52, and Buffalo 36 points. Duke’s QB Daniel Jones falls into that category so we expect the Devils to have a solid offensive performance here. The Blue Devils have played the MUCH tougher schedule facing off against 10 teams that made their way into bowl games. They were 5-5 in those games including wins over Army (who blew out Houston in their bowl game), Miami FL, Northwestern (who won the Big Ten West), Georgia Tech, and Baylor. Meanwhile, in the much weaker AAC, Temple faced 6 bowl bound teams and finished with a 3-3 mark with wins over Houston (who was blown out by Army in their bowl game), USF (who was WAY down this season and blown out at home in their bowl game by Marshall), and Cincy in OT. We think Duke has a great shot to win this game outright and we’ll take the points.

#579 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Let’s just say this, laying points with teams in Chicago isn’t an intimidating thing as they have the WORST point differential in the league at minus -8.5PPG. Chicago’s home record is 5-12 SU this season but those wins came against teams with a combined 67-98 SU record, and only one has an above .500 record. Now you can look and say the Wolves are 3-13 SU on the road this season but all thirteen of those losses came against Western Conference opponents. Two of their road wins came against similar teams to the Bulls from the East (Brooklyn and Cleveland). The Bulls are the least efficient offensive team in the NBA at just 1.018 points per possession, Minny is 16th.  Chicago is the 22nd ranked defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.104PPP while the Wolves are 10th at 1.062PPP.  It’s clear the Wolves have played the much tougher schedule (12th) while the Bulls have played a soft schedule (21st) yet the T-Wolves have much better efficiency stats. This game won’t be close. Minnesota’s 6-1 ATS record versus the Bulls grows to 7-1 after tonight. 

ASA 9* PLAY ON Georgia Tech (-) over Minnesota, Wednesday at 5:15 PM ET This is the Gophers first bowl appearance since PJ Fleck took over as head coach so they might be in “just happy to be here” mode. They already won their biggest game of the year upsetting Wisconsin (Badgers had 4 turnover to 0 for Minnesota) on the road in the season finale taking home Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the first time in 14 yards AND becoming bowl eligible in the process. Going into Wisconsin as a double digit underdog, we’re not sure they even expected to be playing in the post-season. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, will be highly motivated to get this win. Their long time head coach Paul Johnson has informed his team that he will retire after this one. From what we have been told, Johnson is well liked by his players and they REALLY want to win this game for him. “I’m going to try to have my best game, and we’re going to try to send coach Johnson out the right way, with a win,” linebacker and captain Brant Mitchell said. “I think that’s the mindset of everybody on this team.” The Jackets offensive strength plays right into Minnesota’s defensive weakness. Tech leads the nation in rushing at 335 YPG on 5.7 YPC while Minnesota allows 170 YPG on the ground in 5.2 YPC. They had some solid defensive performances vs the rush against lower tier rushing teams. However, against the top running games in the Big Ten they struggled allowing Illinois, Nebraska, and Maryland to all rush for over 300 yards. Against Wisconsin to end the season, Minny jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead due to turnovers and special teams (punt return TD for Gophs) taking the Badgers out of their gameplan. Even with that Wisconsin rushed for 170 yards on 5.5 YPC. The Gophs will also be without their top defensive player and leading tackler LB Blake Cashman along with starting OT Donnell Greene who are both sitting out this game to get ready for the NFL draft. On top of that, head coach PJ Fleck suspended a few other players but he isn’t divulging who they are so we’ll all find out at game time. Either way, not a great sign for Minnesota and their mental readiness for this game. They are also the youngest team in the nation with over 50% of their roster being freshmen so it will be the first bowl game ever for many on this team. Because they were young, the Gophers struggled on the road with their only win coming @ Wisconsin in a game they were actually outgained. Their other games away from home ended in losses by margins of 29, 25, 24, and 16 points. Ga Tech has won 6 of 8 game entering this one but did lose in their season ender to in-state rival Georgia. Johnson has led his team to wins in 3 of their last 4 bowls games and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. We have a feeling the young Minnesota defense gets worn down in this game and Tech pulls away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Georgia Tech is the play.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

As we stated a few weeks ago when we took Baltimore plus the points vs this KC team, we think the Chiefs are trending down late in the season.  After a red hot start, they are just 2-2 their last 4 games and their wins are not overly impressive beating a bad Oakland team 40-33 and then holding on to beat Baltimore at home 27-24 in OT.  After covering their first 7 games of the season, the Chiefs are now just 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games.  Seattle is coming off an OT loss at San Fran (we were on the Niners) and they are not quite locked into the playoffs.  They are currently in the first wildcard spot and a win here would put them in for sure.  Seattle has been very solid at home with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of the Rams (by 2 points) when LA was playing at the top of their game and the Chargers, a game the Seahawks were at the goal line in the final minute with a chance to tie.  As a home dog this team is simply a big time money maker with an 11-1-1 ATS record in that situation.  Not only that the Seahawks have won 9 of those games outright!  On top of that, since 2003 they are also a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog in prime time (Sunday Night or Monday Night).  Want more?  With Russell Wilson as the starting QB the Seahawks are 13-2 SU at home in prime time games.  Now to the match up which favors Seattle in our opinion.  They are the #1 team in the NFL rushing the ball for 154 YPG while the KC defense cannot stop the run ranking 26th in YPG allowed on the ground and dead last in YPC allowed.  That opens up the passing game for Russell Wilson who’s often overlooked but having a fantastic season.  While the Chiefs offense is still very potent, the loss of RB Kareem Hunt is a big blow.  The last 2 games they’ve rushed for just 68 & 90 yards and their YPP production dropped off dramatically (5.5 & 5.3).  KC is trending down yet still favored on the road in a very tough venue vs a very good team.  We like Seattle to win this game at home so we’ll take the points. 

#226 ASA CFB 10* TOP PLAY ON Troy (+) over Buffalo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET – DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL The wrong team is favored here in our opinion. We have these teams rated dead even and this is basically a home game for Troy. This game is being played in Mobile, AL which is 165 miiles from the Troy campus. When the Trojans played here two years ago they beat Ohio (from the MAC) 28-23. They brought 30,000+ fans to the game and a large contingent is expected again on Saturday. The Trojans were 2nd best team in the Sun Belt all season long right behind Appalachian State who already won their bowl game 45-13 despite losing their head coach and much of their coaching staff at the end of the regular season. Our 3rd rated team in the Sun Belt was Georgia Southern who already beat Eastern Michigan from the MAC (same as Buffalo) in their bowl game. Troy beat all of the bowl teams in the Sun Belt with the exception of App State who played host to the Trojans in the final game of the regular season and won 21-10. This team also beat Nebraska on the road earlier in the season. The MAC is again struggling in the bowl season (EMU lost, NIU lost, Toledo lost, Ohio won as of this writing) and the league is just 1-11 SU their last 12 bowl games. Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game blowing a 29-10 lead losing 30-29. We think they’ll have a tough time bouncing back from that disappointment. On top of that, the team that beat them, Northern Illinois, was already crushed in their bowl game by UAB. Troy has a decent sized defensive edge here. They have been very good at stopping the run allowing just 3.3 YPC this season. It’s not as if the Sun Belt is a bad rushing conference either as this Troy defense faced 5 of the top 31 rush offenses this season. The Bulls rely heavily on their running game (42 carries per game) and Troy has the ability to shut that down. On the other side of the ball Buffalo allows nearly a full YPC more than Troy. The Trojans should control the trenches here. This is Buffalo’s first bowl game since 2013 while Troy is playing their third straight bowl game (won their bowl game each of the last 2 seasons). Troy has a veteran coach in Neal Brown that has led his team to a 30-19 ATS record over his tenure at the school. This Troy team has won 30 of their last 38 games going back to the start of the 2015 season. This program has a winning tradition while Buffalo is just starting to build theirs with their first winning season since 2013. Troy wins this one.

ASA 8* CBB PLAY ON Vanderbilt +3.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2

This game is being played in Kansas City so while it is much closer to KSU it’s not on their home court. The Wildcats will be playing their 2nd game with starting center who is major contributor averaging 14 PPG and 8 RPG.  In their first game without Wade earlier this week, the Cats really struggled with an average at best Southern Miss team.  KSU was down 16 points at home in the 2nd half and rallied for a 55-51 win.  They got a little bit lucky in that game as well as Southern Miss shot just 31% from the field and still almost won the game.  Kansas State’s offense has struggled all season long and we expect them to really have problems with Wade out as he is their main inside threat.  If they are forced to be a more perimeter oriented team, that’s not a good sign as they simply don’t shoot the ball very well from outside (just 30% from deep which is 290th nationally).  They also leave a lot of points at the line shooting just 65% as a team (11 for 20 vs USM).  The problem for KSU here is Vandy is a very good offensive team that can shoot the ball with accuracy.  They are effective inside the arc (55%) and outside the arc (36%).  The Commodores average 83 PPG and have topped 75 points in all but one game this season.  That’s a huge problem for a KSU team that will need to put points on the board to win this game and they struggle to do that (68 PPG average).  Vandy is a solid defensive team as well allowing teams an eFG% of just 45% (32nd nationally).  The Dores come in with a 3-1 record vs top 100 teams with their only loss in that range coming vs NC State who has proven to be a very good team taking Wisconsin to the wire on the road and beating a top 10 Auburn team this week.  We’ll take the much better shooting team here as KSU is simply a struggling team early in the season. 

#224 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Army (-) over Houston, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – ARMED FORCES BOWL - We’re not so sure what Houston’s mind set will be entering this game. They had higher aspirations coming into the season but are stuck in the Armed Forces Bowl. Their top player, DT Oliver, is sitting this game out to get ready for the NFL draft. Their starting QB D’Eriq King, who passed for 3000 yards and 36 TD’s along with nearly 700 yards rushing, hurt his knee in the Cougars 2nd to last game of the season and is out. His back up is a true freshman who was 18 of 43 passing in their season ending blowout loss at the hands of Memphis. They will also be without one of the top offensive playmakers, WR & kick returner Bryson Smith. On top of that, head coach Major Applewhite fired his defensive coordinator at the end of the season. This team seems to done with this season and looking ahead to next year. We know that isn’t the case with Army. One thing we know about the service academies is they will show up and play hard in their bowl games (16-8 ATS in bowl games since 2003). Army was easily the best of the academies this year with a 10-2 record. Let’s not forget one of the losses was 28-21 @ Oklahoma in overtime and the Cadets outgained the Sooners! It was easily the lowest point total for the Sooners this season (21 in regulation) as they topped 40 in every game but two (37 vs Iowa State was the other). That speaks volumes on how good this Army defense is. They ended the season ranked in the top 20 nationally in total defense, rush defense, pass defense, AND scoring defense. Houston, on the other hand, struggled to top the run this year allowing just under 200 YPG. And that was WITH All American DT Ed Oliver in the line up and as we stated he is sitting this one out. The Cougs beat Navy this year as the Middies were way down, however they allowed 344 yards rushing in that one. They’ll have big problems again here stopping an Army running attack that ranks #2 nationally averaging 297 YPG. We like Army to win by at least a TD in this one so we’ll lay the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -6 over UCLA, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET on CBS

UCLA comes in with just a 7-4 record and vs top 100 teams they are just 1-4 (Ohio State ranked 25 in Ken Pom).  That’s understandable as this is a very young team that is finding their way right now and should be better as the year progresses.  The Bruins start 2 freshmen and 2 more are key contributors off the bench.  They are 0-3 in road/neutral games and are coming off getting waxed @ Cincinnati on Thursday. (lost by 29 points).  The Buckeyes beat that same Cincinnati team on the road by 8 this season.   Now 2 days later the Bruins are still on the road in Chicago to play a very solid Ohio State team.  Not ideal for a young team over the Xmas break.  OSU has a big advantage today playing in the United Center as they’ve already faced Illinois at this venue a few weeks ago.  Ohio State won that game by 10 points.  The Buckeyes are a fantastic defensive team ranking 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 10th in eFG% defense.  Add that to the fact that the United Center is a very tough venue for shooting, especially when you haven’t played here, and we expect UCLA to struggle offensively.  On top of that, UCLA doesn’t get to the line a ton (17% of their points) and when they do they only make 61% which is one of the worst FT percentages in the nation.  Compare that to Ohio State that does get to the line a lot with 24% of their points coming from the strip (23rd nationally) and when they do get there they make 74%.  Ohio State made 47% of their shots and 23 FT’s here two weeks ago.  If they can come anywhere close to those type of offensive numbers, we think this is an easy win for the Buckeyes.

#217 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Florida International (+) over Toledo, Friday at 12:30 PM ET NOTE - FRIDAY AFTERNOON GAME - Windy conditions expected in the Bahamas Bowl and this absolutely will negate some of the impact of Florida International QB James Morgan being downgraded to "out" for this game. They are expecting 25 to 35 MPH winds in Nassau on Friday which has dropped this total from 67 to 56! We’re not on the total but interesting to note the affect the strong winds will have on this game. The running game will now become more important of this game and FIU back up QB Christian Alexander, a junior is actually the much better runner in comparison with Morgan. Alexander hasn't seen a ton of action this season but he did complete 19 of 29 passes for 218 yards plus he ran for 98 yards on 14 carries for an average of 7 yards per carry. Morgan is a graduate transfer from Bowling Green and his insight into Toledo (both are MAC schools) is also a bonus in this game as he'll pass along plenty in game planning as he helps Alexander with this rare start. Though this will be an unexpected start for Alexander, he did see action in 8 of the Panthers 12 games this season. The Rockets have the more impressive numbers in terms of production on offense but they are also playing with their back up QB Eli Peters who stepped in the final 4 games for injured starter Mitchell Guadagni. Defensively FIU has a solid edge in our opinion. FIU has allowed 386 YPG on the season while Toledo has been rolled for 430 YPG. In road games this season, the Panthers have allowed just 22 points per game. As for Toledo, away from home this season the Rockets have allowed 34.6 points per game! The Rockets allowed only 13 points in their most recent game but that was at home vs Central Michigan who ranks 2nd to last nationally in total offense. Prior to that one, Toledo allowed 31 points or more in 7 of their previous 10 games since the season opener. With FIU's 28-25 loss to Marshall, the Panthers have now allowed 28 points or less in 8 of their last 11 games. Florida International is 9-2-1 ATS in their last dozen games against teams with a winning record. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season & 12-4-1 ATS in that role going back a few seasons. FIU’s Butch Davis is a veteran coach and gets the edge over Toledo’s Jason Candle who is in his 2nd year with the Rockets and this is his only head coaching experience. Davis took over a bad FIU program last year and turned them from a 4-8 team into an 8-5 team in one season. This year they sit at 8-4 looking for their first 9 win season ever. The venue also benefits FIU as they are a short hour flight from the Bahamas and definitely used the the warm, humid weather (supposed to be 80 degrees on Friday). The Toledo players may look at this as more of a vacation making the long trip from the cold Ohio weather. Grab the generous points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Purdue (-16.5) over Ohio, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

The Boilers need a big win in the worst way and we think they get it tonight.  They come into this game with just a 6-5 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the nation (4th rated strength of schedule).  Purdue has already played 8 top 100 teams on the year and their losses have come at the hands of Michigan (4th in Ken Pom ratings), Virginia Tech (10), Florida State (16), Texas (30), and Notre Dame (54).  All of those losses, with the exception of their game @ Michigan, were close and games that were undecided in the final minutes (losses by 1, 4, 6, and 8 points).  This team could easily have a much better record.   In their games vs opponents ranked outside the top 55, the Boilers are undefeated with their wins coming by 9, 21, 22, 33, and 38 points.  Their other win came by 2 points vs Maryland who is currently rated 26th in the Ken Pom ratings.  Thursday they face an Ohio team that is rated 156th and has played a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 100.  That was a game vs 71st ranked Xavier and the Musketeers rolled them by 21 points.  The Bobcats also lost to Loyola Marymount (108th) by 9 and South Florida (191st) by 27.  They are playing their 2nd straight road game after squeaking by a 3-8 Detroit team 63-61 as 7-point favorites.  The Boilers have struggled defensively this year vs a slew of good offensive teams, however they should get healthy on that end of the court in this game.  Ohio is not a good shooting team and they are terrible from beyond the arc making just 29% (311th nationally).  Purdue head coach Matt Painter has really stressed they must start improving on defense so an all out effort is expected here.  Offensively Purdue should put up big numbers as they are averaging 80 PPG at home (4-0 record).  This is a get well game for Boilermakers at home and we smell a rout.

ASA play on: #569 New Orleans Pelicans +9 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – The Pelicans have been alternating wins and losses their last ten games and are off a loss last time out. New Orleans most recent road game was played in Boston where they were a +2.5-point underdog and lost 100-113. But the line on that game is significant here as they are plus 6 more points in Milwaukee. The Pelicans have been a dog of 8 or more points just 4 times this year and they’ve covered three of those games. Granted, the Pels have two key injuries to Randle and Mirotic but Milwaukee is also without Ilyasova and possible Brogdon. Let’s make these comparisons. The Bucks were just -10.5-points at home over Cleveland, possibly the worst team in the league, last week and -7.5-points at home over Detroit. Now they are laying this number against the Pelicans? Doesn’t add up by our metrics. Milwaukee is off two straight road wins and have a much bigger game looming on deck in Boston, so they won’t play at their peak level tonight. The Bucks have struggled shooting of late as their last five games they’ve hit under 44% of their FG attempts which is drastically less than their season average of nearly 48%. New Orleans 

ASA play on: Charlotte Hornets -13 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET – Scheduling has a lot to do with this one as the Cavs played last night in Indiana and are playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in six days. The Cavaliers are thin to begin with as several key players are out including K-Love and Tristan Thompson. Charlotte meanwhile is fresh having been off since the 15th. The Hornets are also coming off two straight losses, both at home so they’ll be focused here. The Cavs are 3-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd worse average differential of minus -11.7PPG. Charlotte is 10-7 SU at home on the season with a plus differential of +4.4PPG. We also have a bit of revenge on our side here too as the last meeting on Nov 13th was a Cavs blowout win at home 113-89. Earlier in November the Hornets beat the Cavaliers at home 126-94. The Cavs are 3-5 SU on the road their last eight games and the five losses all came by double-digits. Charlotte will get a huge win at home tonight and catch Cleveland in a letdown situation after their upset last night in Indiana.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON USC -8 over Santa Clara, Tuesday at 10 PM ET

Not much is being said about this talented USC team and that is in part because of their 5-5 record.  However, they have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation losing to the likes of Texas Tech, Vandy, Oklahoma, Nevada, and TCU.  Those 5 teams have a combined 45-4 record so nothing to be ashamed of for the Trojans.  When they’ve played lower tier competition, similar to Santa Clara, they Trojans have dominated.  Their 5 wins have all come by double digits.  USC comes into this game having played 3 straight games against top 30 teams and lost all 3 so they are hungry for a win here.  USC takes a huge step down in competition tonight facing a Santa Clara team that is 5-6 despite playing the 8th easiest schedule in the nation thus far.  All of the Broncos 5 wins have come against teams currently rated 313th or lower and considering there are only 351 teams, you can imagine how poor some of those teams are.  They did dominate two of those games vs Miss Valley State (ranked 350th) and Sonoma State (not ranked) but their other 3 wins vs that poor competition came by 7, 8, and 11 points.  Not overly impressive.  All but one of their 6 losses have come by double digits and their lone close loss was a 68-66 setback at home to Idaho State (ranked 250th).  Santa Clara is one of the youngest teams in the nation with 4 underclassmen starting, including 2 freshmen.  Not only that, 3 of their key reserves are also freshmen.  USC, on the other hand, starts 4 upperclassmen and 6 of their top 8 players were key members of last year’s 24-12 team.  The Trojans rolled over Santa Clara last year by a final score of 82-59 and they were in a similar spot losing 3 in a row entering that game all vs very good competition.  USC led that one throughout and they bring back players that scored 51 points in that game while Santa Clara returns only 1 player that played significant minutes in that game.  USC is the much better team here and they are backed into a corner in a must win spot.  They should roll in this one.

ASA 9* Northern Illinois (+) over UAB, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET – BOCA RATON BOWL - UAB comes into this game with the better record at 10-3 compared to Northern Illinois who is 8-5. However the Huskies have played the MUCH tougher schedule and it’s not even close. Only 9 teams in all of college football have had an easier schedule this year than UAB. The only decent non-conference game the Blazers played was vs Texas A&M and they lost that one 41-20. That game was also late in the season in the middle of the SEC season for A&M. The Aggies were in a perfect letdown spot coming off Ole Miss with LSU on deck and still dominated the game. Conference USA was not a strong league this year and that has shown true in the bowl games thus far. The two CUSA teams that have played thus far are Middle Tennessee State and North Texas and both were blown out despite facing teams that just lost their head coaches (App State & Utah State). UAB was 2-1 this year against those 2 teams but were outgained in all 3 games and their two wins were by 2 & 8 points. One of those wins was by 2-points over MTSU in the CUSA Championship game. NIU challenged themselves to say the least in the non-conference season as they faced Utah, BYU, Iowa, and Florida State! They struggled offensively in those games, which is understandable, but it also makes their overall stats for the season a bit misleading. Down the stretch this offense played quite well scoring 38, 36, and 30 points in 3 of their last 5 games. That includes an impressive come from behind 30-29 win over a very good Buffalo team in the MAC Championship game. Over their final 5 games, 3 vs bowl teams, the Huskies averaged nearly 400 YPG on offense. The defense is among the best in the nation allowing just 347 YPG on 4.6 PPG despite the tough schedule. We rated these defenses almost dead even. While UAB has better stats offensively, we rate them very close as well because of the strength of schedule difference. This game should be a pick-em on our opinion so we’re getting value with Northern Illinois here. UAB is a popular play here with over 70% of the overall spread tickets on the Blazers. That’s fine with us. That’s because since 2005, when a team gets more than 70% of the spread bets they are just 27-44-1 ATS (just 38%). Take Northern Illinois tonight.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Carolina +7 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

The Panthers home vs road dichotomy is quite drastic.  They are just 1-6 on the road losing by an average score of 27-20.  At home, however, Carolina is 5-1 winning by an average score of 31-23.  Their lone loss here at home was a 30-27 OT setback at the hands of the Seahawks.  Much has been made of Carolina’s free fall as they have lost 5 straight games but keep in mind it has been a brutal stretch with 4 of those 5 games on the road.  Now they are backed into a corner and in a must win spot.  Because Minnesota won on Sunday, the Vikings are currently sitting in the final wildcard spot and the Panthers must win here to remain a half game out if the wildcard.  A loss here pretty much ends their playoff hopes.  Despite their 5 game losing streak, the Cats have actually outgained 4 of those 5 opponents and going back further they’ve outgained 8 of their last 9 opponents.  This is the first time Carolina has been an underdog since early November.  In that game they were +3.5 @ Pittsburgh and now they’re getting nearly a full TD at home vs the Saints who come in overvalued in our opinion.  New Orleans is 11-2 and they’ve already clinched the division.  However, their offense has taken a noticeable step back over the last 3 weeks.  Last week they beat Tampa 28-14, however their offense only averaged 4.8 YPP vs a defense that ranks 31st in that category allowing 6.7 YPP.  Over the last 3 games the Saints have averaged 4.8, 3.6, and 5.7 YPP which is way down from their season average of 6.1 YPP.  Two of those games were against Tampa & Atlanta, two of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Saints have been outgained in 3 of their last 5 road games topping only Tampa & Cincy in total yardage.  Drew Brees has started to slow down as well after a sizzling start to the season.  After recording a QB Rating of 110 or higher in 9 of his first 11 games, Brees has put up a QB Rating of just 71 & 90 his last two games.  Despite the difference in their records, these two have very similar overall YPG differential stats on the season with the Saints at +40 YPG (+0.1 YPP) and Carolina is +26 YPG (+0.2 YPP).  The dog has covered 7 of the last 8 in this NFC South rivalry and we call for another here.  We give Carolina a great shot and winning this one so we’ll take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Vanderbilt +1 over Arizona State, Monday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a very tough scheduling situation for a very young ASU team.  The Devils played their first true road game on Saturday @ Georgia and now are again on the road @ Vandy just 48 hours later.  ASU expended a lot of physical and emotional energy on Saturday coming from 18 points down to beat Georgia 76-74.  The Sun Devils took their first lead of the game with under 3:00 minutes remaining.  They only had 7 players log double digit minutes and the starters all played at least 26 minutes with 3 of them playing 33+ minutes.  It’s going to be tough for this team, with 4 underclassmen in the starting line up, to come back at a peak level after that effort.  Not only that, Arizona State has a HUGE home game on Saturday as they play host to Kansas.  Coming off a big win and with that game on deck this young team might be glancing ahead.  They are playing a very good Vanderbilt team tonight who’s rested having not played since December 5th.  While we’re not a huge fan of 10+ days off continuity wise, we feel it will be a big advantage here for the Commodores facing a team on short rest.  Vandy has shot very well at home this year hitting 51% of their shots while allowing opponents to make only 39%.  They did lost their freshman point guard Darius Garland in late November, they’ve had nearly a full month and 3 games to adjust and they’ve done just that with their most recent game a 28 point win over Middle Tennessee State.  These two met last year @ ASU and the Devils rolled to a 76-64 win so Vandy has had that to think about on their 10 days off leading up to this rematch.  ASU has only one starter back from that game as this team has quite a different look from last season.  We think Vanderbilt will surprise people and we have them tabbed as one of the top teams in the SEC.  The situation heavily favors the Commodores and only have to win at home, they are the play.     

ASA 10* play on: # 523 Sacramento Kings +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET - *Short analysis on football Sunday* The Kings are quietly going about a very solid season and exceeding preseason expectations. At 15-13 SU the Kings have the 9th best record in the West as of this writing. Dallas has also played well with a 15-12 SU record and have become more of a public team with Luka Doncic. Sacramento has an 8-7 SU road record with a positive point differential of +1.1PPG. They are just one of ten teams in the league with a positive road margin. Dallas was just a -4.5-point favorite at home a few nights ago against a Magic team that isn’t nearly as good as this Sacramento team. The Mavs have played three weak teams their last three games and have inflated numbers because of it. In their last five games the Kings have a +/- differential of +6.8PPG and have done it with 50% shooting as a team. The Mavs are -.2PPG their last five games and have allowed foes to hit 45% from the field. That’s a recipe for an underdog upset with the Kings. Sacto has covered 5 of the last six on this court.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON San Francisco +4 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

We’ll back the ugly home dog here playing with short revenge against a team that has essentially locked up their spot in the playoffs. These two teams just met 2 weeks ago in Seattle and the Hawks won handily 43-16 as a 10-point chalk. But the final score doesn’t tell it all as the Niners racked up 452 total yards of offense and outgained the Seahawks by 121 total yards. The 49ers had some costly turnovers at key times including a 98-yard INT TD late in the game along with a 90+ yard kickoff return to set up an easy score for Seattle. The 49ers bounced back off that loss with a solid win over Denver who was in a must win situation last week. San Fran outgained the Broncos by 115 yards and have now outgained 4 of their last five opponents. Seattle is coming off a huge home win over Minnesota but did it with just 274 total yards and 60 yards passing. That game was just 6-0 late in the game too. Seattle has been outgained by 4 of their last six opponents and it catches up to them today. The Seahawks defense hasn’t been the “Legion of Boom” this season as they allow 6.3 yards per play which is 26th in the league. San Francisco’s defense allows just 5.4YPPL which ranks 11th best in the NFL. You’ll be surprised to know that the 49ers even have the better offense in this matchup with a unit that averages 5.7YPPL compared to Seattle’s which averages 5.6YPPL. Seattle takes this week off in preparation for their game next week against the high-profile Chiefs. San Fran will be highly motivated here, playing with revenge and will treat this like a playoff game. Underdog wins outright!

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis -3 over Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love this spot for the Colts.  Indy is coming off a very solid performance beating Houston on the road last week.  That was a Texans team that had won 9 straight games coming into last week.  Andrew Luck was fantastic with 399 yards passing against a very good Houston defense.  The Colts are in a must win spot at home here as they currently sit behind Baltimore for the final wildcard spot.  They have the same record as the Ravens at 7-6 but Indy is out right now because they lose the tie breaker.  Dallas is coming off 3 straight huge home games beating Washington, New Orleans, and then Philly in OT last week.  Their big division win over the Eagles pretty much locked up the division for Dallas (99% chance to win division) so they may have a bit of a letdown here.  In fact, NFL teams coming off an SU & ATS overtime win have been terrible investments with a 13-30 ATS record the last 4 seasons.  The Cowboys are also just 2-4 on the road this year and they were actually outgained in their 2 road wins.  Dallas relies heavily on their running game to set up their passing game as Dak Prescott is not a QB that can carry the load by himself in our opinion.  Not much is said about the Colts defense, but they are very solid, especially against the run.  They rank 8th in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 6th in YPC allowed.  If they can slow the Dallas running game, the Cowboy offense is in trouble.  If Prescott is asked to win this game, we don’t see it happening.  We’ll take Andrew Luck in that spot every day of the week.  Indy’s head coach Frank Reich was with the Eagles last year so he knows Dallas very well.  So does the Colt’s defensive coordinator who was the Dallas LB coach last season.  The Colts are an undervalued team in our opinion and they catch Dallas in a great spot for a letdown.  We’ll lay the field goal