English Premier League #200022 ASA PLAY ON Manchester United Money Line -135 over Tottenham, Saturday at 12:30 PM ET - Tottenham is off a match, before the international break, in which they scored 2 goals but they still lost and it has been a dreadful start to the Premier League season for the Hotspur. In fact, prior to that 3-2 home loss, they had been outscored 5-0 in their first 4 matches. That's right, Tottenham did not even score a single goal in their first 4 matches this season. While it is also true that Manchester United has had its own set of struggles, at least they already scored 8 goals on the season. We like them in this spot as the money line price is reasonable and, like Tottenham, their backs are against the wall. However, unlike Tottenham, Manchester United is at home here and they have been scoring goals with a fair amount of consistency. In fact, in their last 6 matches across all types of competitions (including Premier League), Manchester United has scored an average of 2.3 goals per match. We don't see the Hotspur scoring enough on the road here to be able to keep up. We like Man U in a 3-1, or at least 2-1, final. We will lay the very reasonable price with Manchester United on the money line in this one.

#416 ASA PLAY ON Northern Illinois +7.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Terrible spot here for Air Force who is coming off a tight rivalry win over Navy 14-9. The Falcons, despite the win, were actually outgained 5.3 YPP to 3.8 YPP as their offense was stagnant. That’s vs a Navy defense that had allowed at least 5.4 YPP in every other game this season including over 6.0 YPP vs FCS Towson. On top of that, Air Force lost their QB Szarka for the season late in that game and he leads the team in passing and rushing. He’s actually top 20 nationally in rushing and he’ll be a huge loss as back up Medders has very little experience. NIU had last week off which gave them 2 full weeks to prepare for AF’s option offense which is a huge bonus. The Huskies are 0-4 but they’ve played a very tough schedule (top 30 SOS) including games @ Iowa and @ Arizona. They’ve shown some solid progress especially in their most recent game @ Georgia State as they lost but outgained the Panthers by almost 100 yards. That’s Georgia State team that’s been rolling Sun Belt teams on the scoreboard and in the stats. NIU QB Dickens has been playing very well with almost 800 yards and a 71% completion rate in his last 3 games. This team loves to pass the ball (34th in pass attempts), has a hot QB and is playing a team that hasn’t faced a good passing team yet this season. AF goes from facing a run heavy Navy team last weekend to a pass heavy team which is always a tough transition. They haven’t faced a team that ranks in the top 95 in passing YPG and the FBS teams they’ve played rank 102nd, 117th, and 135th in pass attempts per game. The Falcons 2 FBS wins have come by 3 in OT vs Nevada and by 5 vs Navy. We like NIU to keep this close at home and have a shot in the 4th quarter to pull the upset. Let’s take the points.

#390 ASA PLAY ON Arizona State -20.5 over Hawaii, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - Arizona State should be in an ornery mood at home for this one after losing 55-19 here vs Baylor last week as a small favorite. That final score was very misleading as the Sun Devils had 3 turnovers (0 for Baylor) but still had over 400 yards of total offense. The Bears scored 17 points off ASU turnovers and a game that was close at halftime turned into a blowout. After the game ASU head coach Dillingham took the fall blaming himself for the loss. He also pushed the play calling duties to Marcus Arroyo while Dillingham focuses more on the overall head coach role. It was also the first game since the Devils came back from their game vs Kansas in London which isn’t ideal. Prior to their Baylor loss, ASU beat Kansas by 7 and lost @ Texas A&M but outgained the Aggies by 115 yards. Now they take a step down in competition as Hawaii will be the worst team they’ve faced outside of FCS Morgan State, a game they won 70-7 proving Dillingham proved he wasn’t opposed to running up the score putting up 3 TD’s in the 4th quarter. The Rainbows have played the 111th strength of schedule yet are only 1-4 on the year with their only win coming vs New Mexico State in a game that was tied midway through the 4th quarter. The Sun Devils will be by far the best team Hawaii has faced as their 5 opponents to date have all been ranked outside the top 85. The Bows have played 2 road games this year vs Stanford (worst team in the ACC) lost by 10 but got outgained by 160 yards so it could have been worse and @ Wyoming where they lost by 17. Hawaii looked a bit gassed in the 2nd half last week in their home loss vs San Jose State (we were on SJSU) and now they have to make their third trip to the mainland this season vs a Power 4 team that is ready to blow someone out. ASU covers this one.

#349 ASA PLAY ON LSU -8 over Kentucky, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Our power rating have LSU favored north of 10 points so we like the value here. We also like the spot. The Tigers played an FCS opponent last week cruising to a 63-14 win over McNeese State and they were able to rest some players in the 2nd half after building a 35-0 halftime lead. Not a stressful or overly physical game for LSU and their defense was only on the field for 22 minutes. Kentucky, on the other hand, had a game @ South Carolina in which they got down 17-0 and battled back for a 35-34 win in OT. The Cats were quite fortunate in that win (we were on South Carolina) as they were outgained 6.2 YPP to 5.0 YPP but benefitted from 2 Gamecock turnovers (0 for Kentucky) which led directly to 10 UK points. The one comparable team (power rating wise) to LSU that the Wildcats have faced was Alabama and they lost that game 45-17 at home. They were outgained by 2.1 YPP in that game and scored only 1 offensive TD (they had a pick 6 for the other TD). Now Kentucky is facing a team that is every bit as good as Bama but LSU has a better defense. The Tigers stop unit ranks 2nd in the nation in YPG allowed and YPP allowed and in their 4 games vs FBS opponents they held 3 of those offenses to 3.3 YPP or less. The only offense that topped that was Ole Miss but LSU still held the Rebels nearly a full 1.0 YPP below their season average. If Kentucky struggled with Alabama’s defense, they’ll have more problems here. On the other end, LSU’s offense ranks in the top 10 in YPG and they’ve scored at least 35 points in 4 of their 5 games. They’re facing a Kentucky defense that ranks 103 in defensive success rate and they are outside the top 100 in both passing and rushing success rate defensively. Weather could play a factor here with rain and wind possible but if it turns into a running type game, we like LSU as well in that situation. They are putting up 238 YPG rushing while on defense they allow just 58 YPG on the ground on 2.0 YPC. Kentucky has caught some breaks early in the season to get to 4-1 and ranked in the top 25 but LSU is the much better team. Tigers by double digits.

#327 ASA PLAY ON Indiana -7.5 over Nebraska, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Here we go with our yearly, early season Nebraska is back talk. The Huskers are 5-0 on the season but those wins have come against Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota, Michigan State and Maryland (2 of the 3 worst teams in the Big 10). Last year the Huskers started 5-1 and then when they hit the meat of their schedule, finished 2-5 down the stretch. In 2024 the same scenario, start 5-1, close 2-5 when they start playing better teams. Nebraska’s going to have to prove it to us before we buy in. Last week they were on the ropes here at home down 23-14 late in the first half to a bad Maryland team. The Terps were moving for potential TD to make it 30-14 (or at worst 26-14) when Nebraska returned a pick six 81 yards for a TD. That changed the entire game so that final score with Nebraska winning 48-23 was definitely misleading. The YPP numbers were almost equal. Indiana hasn’t played a great schedule either but we trust this team under head coach Cignetti much more than the Nebraska team. The Hoosiers did beat what’s turning out to be a very solid Northwestern team 29-23 a few weeks ago but it should have been worse with almost 500 total yards to just 225 for the Cats. Another point on that game, Indiana was favored by 21 in that game vs Northwestern and we’re not so sure the Cats are just as good or possibly better than this Nebraska team and we’re only laying 7.5 here. While we don’t expect IU to be as good as they were last year when they won the National Championship, they are still very good and well coached. They rank in the top 8 nationally in both total offense YPP and total defense YPP. If this game would have been played to start the season, Indiana would have been favored by more than 10 points. The Huskers have been poor at home as a dog going 7-14 ATS in that role the last decade plus and they almost never pull upsets. They are 2-19 SU in those games as home when tabbed an underdog and they’ve lost 31 straight vs ranked opponents. We realize that Indiana has OSU on deck, however Cignetti won’t let them overlook a team that is undefeated on the season. We’ll believe when we see it Nebraska. Until then, we’ll roll with Indiana in this one.

#344 ASA FREE PLAY Penn State -1.5 over USC, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This lined opened with USC as a slight favorite but flipped to PSU despite the fact they are coming off back to back losses. The Nittany Lions are now backed into a corner at 0-2 in Big 10 play and in a must win spot at home. Two weeks ago they led Wisconsin by 17 points and lost in the final minutes. Last week they traveled to Northwestern and looked flat from the kick which may have been a result of the Wisconsin loss. The Wildcats were also in a good spot at home opening their brand new stadium on Friday night in prime time. The Cats ran all over Penn State and picked up an easy win. Embarrassing performance to say the least and we expect them to bounce back and play well at home on Saturday night with a whiteout scheduled at Beaver Stadium. USC makes the long travel across the country, a situation they’ve been terrible in over the years. In fact, over the last decade, the Trojans are 4-13 SU and 2-15 ATS when playing in the eastern or central time zones. This team doesn’t travel well which is understandable because their defense usually stinks. No different this year as USC ranks outside the top 100 allowing opponents 6.0 YPP. In their 3 Big 10 games, the Trojan defense is allowing 428 yards on 6.5 YPP and 32 PPG. Their only trip east this season was @ Rutgers and they almost lost outright vs the worst team in the Big 10. USC’s defense allowed 6.7 YPP in that game and needed a 99-yard pick 6 (which was a 14 point swing) to hold on for a 42-35 win. Last week the Trojans got a tight win at home vs Washington 25-21 but were outgained on YPP basis in that one and needed a 48 yard fumble returned for a TD to get the tight win. For the season, PSU still has the better YPP margin at +1.4 to USC’s +1.0. PSU is still a tough place to win as the Nits are 62-14 here since the start of the 2015 season and they are 5-1 vs teams from the west coast during that span. Perfect spot to take Penn State as a very low home chalk.