ASA NBA play on Sacramento Kings -2.5 vs. Portland Trailblazers, 9 PM ET - Both teams are currently playing well right now but we like the Kings in this situation as the Blazers are in a tough scheduling spot. Portland played a big game against the Lakers last night and will be playing their 3rd game in four days. Sacramento meanwhile was off yesterday and have been at home since Jan 11th. The Kings have played without All-Star center Sabonis for most of the season but he’s back now along with Zach LaVine who missed time. Sacto has won 4 straight games and 3 of those four were legit as they came against the Lakers, Knicks and Rockets. Portland is playing well too with a 7-2 SU record in their last nine games but they will be missing a key offensive piece in this game with Avdija not expected to play as of this writing. Portland isn’t a great road team to begin with at 9-12 SU with an average loss margin of -4.9ppg. The Kings are playing with double revenge here after losing to the Blazers twice already this season. Lay the short number with Sacramento.

ASA NBA play on OVER 228.5 Portland Trailblazers at Sacramento Kings, 9PM ET - Both teams are starting to get healthy and it’s led to more wins and more scoring. The Kings have won 4 straight games and are shooting the ball significantly better in their last 5-games at 52.4% compared to their season average of 46.6%. On the season (played mostly without 3 key starters) the Kings have an eFG% of 52.5% (28th), but in their last 5 games that number is 59.3%, 3rd best in the NBA. Sacramento also has the 4th best offensive net rating in this 5 game stretch. Defensively the Kings are 21st in defensive net rating and allow over 120ppg. Portland has gotten some key pieces back in the line up too and have won 7 of their last nine games. The Blazers are allowing 118.4ppg on the season with the 17th worst defensive net rating at 115.6. Portland’s offense is 11th in net rating over their last 10 games, with an eFG% slightly lower than league average. Our model is projecting 232 total points in this game and we agree with the math. Bet OVER!

#387/388 ASA PLAY ON Under 41 Points – Houston Texans vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were on the LA Chargers vs New England total Under last week and we see a similar situation this week. That game ended with the Pats winning 16-3 and while we expect Houston’s offense to be better than that, we don’t think this gets into the 40’s. Houston’s defense is better than the Chargers who held the Patriots in check last week. The Texans have the #2 defense in the NFL per DVOA and they’ve allowed more than 21 points in just 3 of their 18 games this season. Houston also leads the NFL in defensive success rate and allows the fewest points per drive. They’ve only allowed points on 27% of their opponents possessions which is also best in the NFL. Offensively, the Texans are pretty average. They put up 30 points last week vs Pittsburgh (30-6 win) but 14 of those points came on defensive scores. They are 25th in YPP on offense and struggle to score TD’s in the redzone with a 47% TD rate which is 4th worst in the league. They will also be without one of their top offensive weapons with WR Nico Collins out for this game. The Pats defense held the Chargers to 3 points on 3.5 YPP and while Houston’s offense should be better here, it’s not a huge step up by any means. The Pats offense is very good but as we’ve discussed in the past, they’ve faced a very weak schedule of defensive teams. The Chargers (last week) were the highest rated D that New England has faced this season and they put up 16 points. Now they take another step up facing a Houston defense that is better than the Chargers. Similar to last week’s New England game, we have 2 slow paced teams as well (21st and 29th in seconds per play) which will limit possessions. This one smells like a 17-14 type game to us and we’ll jump on the Under.