ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Portland Trailblazers -4 vs Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - This is a great situation to fade the Jazz and support the Blazers. Utah is off a hard fought 134-133 win over the Western Conference favorites the Phoenix Suns. The Jazz got a huge game from their Center Markkanen who scored 38 points. I doubt he can duplicate those numbers tonight considering the Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the league against Centers. Utah is just 7-9-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. Portland had last night off but lost Thursday night at home to the Nets 107-109. A poor shooting night of 39% was the main reason for their loss to the Nets but we expect them to revert back to their season average of 46.6% here, especially against a Jazz defense that allows 47.3%. The surprise Blazers have gotten off to a 10-5 start and a big reason why has been their defense which is 6th best in the NBA in efficiency ratings. Portland is 5-0 SU off a loss this season, 4-1 ATS.

#400 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is an absolute flat spot for Ole Miss. The Rebels are now officially out of the SEC West race (LSU will play in the Championship Game) after losing 30-24 at home to Alabama last Saturday. They had a shot at the win pushing to the Alabama 14 yard line with under 1:00 minute remaining but were shut out on downs. Going on the road after that disappointment will be tough especially since they have a home game vs arch rival Mississippi State next on Thanksgiving Day. Not to mention, Ole Miss has only played one decent team on the road this season and that was @ LSU where they were rolled 45-20. The Rebels other road games this season came vs Georgia Tech, Vandy, and Texas A&M who all have losing records. On the other side, this is a HUGE home game for Arkansas. They need one more win for bowl eligibility and this is their final home game. Last week we were on the Razors and found out right before kickoff (along with everyone else) that starting QB Jefferson was being held out of the game. Despite that, Arkansas gave a great effort and nearly knocked off LSU losing 13-10 (Arkansas did get the cover). With Jefferson in the lineup, we’re fairly confident the Razorbacks would have won that game. He has been practicing all week and will be back in the line up on Saturday according to head coach Pittman. Not only is this the home finale, but it’s a game Arkansas has had circled after losing 52-51 @ Ole Miss last year failing on a 2 point conversion with no time left on the clock. The Razors also fall into a very strong system which is conference home underdogs coming off back to back home losses (so playing their 3rd straight home game) are 68-41 ATS over the last 40+ seasons. Arkansas is a very dangerous home dog here with a lot to play for and we’ll call for the upset

#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -2 over Providence, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Miami returns 5 of their top 8 players from a team that made it to the Elite 8 last season. On the other side, Providence must replace all 5 starters from last season and the Friars have played 2 teams ranked outside the top 250 and the one team they played ranked inside the top 200 (Rider at 194th) they struggled with winning by 1 point at home. Miami has also played a weak schedule but they’ve won all of their games by double digits. Despite their weak schedule, the Friars have allowed their opponents to shoot over 47% from 3 point land which will be an issue facing a Miami team that scored over 38% of their points from deep (56th nationally) and the Canes shoot it well from beyond the arc (36%). Providence is 3-0 because they’ve shot a whopping 53 more free throws than their first 3 opponents, however, Miami has been very good at not sending teams to the FT line (69th nationally) so we don’t expect a big advantage at the stripe for the Friars which they are used to. Miami is the better team here and laying under 3 on a neutral gives us value with the Canes. Lay the small number.

#354 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -5.5 over Houston, Saturday at 2 PM ET - These teams are both 6-4 on the season but ECU is the much better team. This is the Pirates first home game in nearly a month and their home finale. ECU is coming off a game where they completely outplayed Cincinnati on the road, a Bearcats team that is currently tied for first place in the AAC. In that game the Pirates lost 27-25 but outgained Cincy by +144 total yards. The Pirates also beat UCF by 21 points so they outplayed the top 2 teams in the conference while Houston didn’t have to face Cincy or Central Florida. ECU has actually outgained every opponent but one this season and they are +80 YPG on the season. Houston struggled at home to beat a bad Temple team last Saturday. The Cougars were outgained in that game and scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining in the game to win by a TD vs a 3-7 Temple team. Houston’s YPG differential on the season is just +13 and they’ve been overvalued all season long with a 3-7 ATS record losing to the number by a combined 55 points or an average of 5.5 PPG. ECU, on the other hand, is 7-3 ATS and has covered 3 straight by a combined 35 points. ECU’s top 20 offense will be facing a Houston defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, passing defense, and PPG allowed. The Pirates average 35 PPG at home this season with a scoring margin of +12.5 PPG and Houston allows 39.5 PPG on the road. Last year these 2 met in Houston and while the Cougars pulled out a win on OT, they were outgained by over 100 yards by ECU. The Pirates should be highly motivated here in their final home game, we like them to win this by more than a TD.

#398 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baylor +2.5 over TCU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Situationally this one sets up very nicely. Baylor is off an embarrassing home loss vs KSU in which they lost 31-3 despite being favored. This week Baylor head coach Dave Aranda apologized to the fanbase for their performance and you can expect this team to be more than ready in their home finale on Saturday. On top of that, the Bears have been quietly waiting for this game as the Bears were in a similar spot to what TCU is in right now when these teams met last year. It was a November game, Baylor was 7-1 (finished the season 12-2) and sitting in the top 5 with a chance at the College Football Playoffs if they win out. They were favored on the road @ TCU by 7.5 points and lost 30-28 ending their hopes. Now the roles are reversed and Baylor can be the spoiler. TCU is off an impressive 17-10 win @ Texas where they were 7.5 point underdogs. It felt like a “if we can just win at Texas” type game we have a legit shot at the CFB Playoffs. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week, their 3rd road game in 4 weeks, and their 9th consecutive week of playing games, TCU is in a really tough spot. The pressure is all on the Horned Frogs where as we expect Baylor to play with a nothing to lose mentality. The Bears have won 10 of their last 12 home games and since the start of last season, they’ve been a home underdog twice and won both of those games outright. They also have an amazing bounce back record of 21-4-2 ATS their last 27 games following an ATS loss. So Baylor loses by 28 points as a home favorite to KSU last week, TCU upsets Texas on the road and controls their own destiny, yet the Frogs are favored by less than a FG in this game? We’re on Baylor to pull the upset.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Pelicans +3 vs. Boston Celtics, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics may be short-handed tonight with Brogdon and Smart both sidelined, but even if they do play, we like the Pelicans at home. Boston is coming off a big win in Atlanta and now stands 6-2 SU away. The Celtics show 55% from the field and 46% from deep. Boston has at +/- of +5.7PPG on the road but their resume isn’t as impressive as you might think. Three of the Celtics road wins are over Detroit, New York and Orlando. New Orleans has an average Margin of Victory at home of +5.2PPG with impressive recent wins over the Bulls by 14 and Memphis by 11. Boston relies heavily on their 3-points shooting but they don’t have that advantage in this game as the Pelicans rank 5th in 3PT%, a few spots behind Boston. An equalizer here is the Pelicans 3-point defense which is 2nd in the NBA, holding opponents to 32.5%. New Orleans should get plenty of second chance opportunities in this game with the 7th best offensive & defensive rebounding team in the NBA going up against the Celtics who rank 22nd in defensive rebounding and 21st in O-boards. There is a chance Zion Williamson is back in the lineup for this game, but even if he isn’t we like the home team Pelicans.

ASA top play on 10* SAN ANTONIO SPURS +7.5 at Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - This is more of a play against the Kings than necessarily a play on the Spurs. Sacramento has covered four straight games and is coming off a 153 outburst against the Nets. Those recent results have forced the oddsmakers hand which has this line inflated with the value on the Spurs. The Kings have not been a favorite of this size all season long with their largest spread as a chalk being -4.5. The Spurs were just +8.5-points at Portland who is 10-4 on the season and leading the Western Conference. San Antonio has some quality games against some of the elite teams in the NBA with a 7-point loss at Portland, a win at Milwaukee, a 2-point OT loss versus Memphis and a 6-point loss vs. Denver. The Spurs have covered 19 of their last 26 games overall and are on a 4-0 ATS run when coming off a loss. Sacramento is 14-14-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2021 season with a +/- of +2.2PPG. The Spurs defense is bad this season but the Kings aren’t much better. We like the points here with San Antonio.

#68 ASA PLAY ON 8* Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 goals -145 over Arizona Coyotes, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Vegas is off to a great start this season but off B2B losses.  That sets this up perfect for a home blowout here.  The Golden Knights are hosting a Coyotes team whose average margin of defeat in 9 losses is 3 goals!  We only need to win by 2 to cash here and Arizona has been in blowout losses here in recent visits and, again, they are in the wrong place at the wrong time here.  The Coyotes have been held to 2 or less goals in 8 of last 12 games.  Conversely, the Knights are off B2B losses in which they scored just 2 goals in each game but this was preceded by a 9-game winning streak in which Vegas scored an average of 4 goals per game.  We are looking for at least a 4-2 final but really 5-2 is even more likely.  The Golden Knights are fired up and in need of a big win and the Coyotes just do not have the firepower to keep up here.  Lay it.  Vegas Puck Line is our play here.

#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2 over Davidson, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is part of the Charleston Classic Tournament which is being played on C of C’s home court so this is a home game for them. We were on the Cougars a few nights ago laying 2.5 points at home vs Richmond but lost by a half point when they won by 2 in OT. Now we’re laying less here (currently -1) vs a Davidson team we have power rated lower than Richmond. Ken Pom agrees with us as he has Davidson rated nearly 30 spots lower than Richmond. We like the value on this still underrated Charleston team. In their win vs Richmond earlier this week, the Cougars actually led by double digits for much of the way including a 21 point lead with 14 minutes remaining in the game. It was a game they should have won easily and they’ll learn from blowing that lead and keep their foot on the gas here. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). That will be an issue for depth shy teams and Davidson is one of those as they basically have a 7 man rotation. Another glaring weakness for Davidson is rebounding as they’ve been out boarded in all 3 of their games this season vs VMI, Wright State, AND tiny Guilford College. C of C is one of the better rebounding teams in the nation ranking 58th this season in offensive boards after ranking 10th last year in that category. That should lead to a number of extra opportunities for the Cougars. Their lone loss this season was at #1 North Carolina in a game Charleston led midway through the 2nd half and outrebounded UNC. In Davidson’s lone road game this year, they were down 21 points vs Wright State and had to battle back and picked up a fortunate win in OT. They followed that up with a 4 point win over VMI at home, a team picked to finish near the bottom of the Southern Conference. They could easily have 2 losses in their first 3 games under new head coach Matt McKillop who took over for his father after Bob McKillop retired at the end of last season. Tough match up for Davidson here and we’ll take College of Charleston to win at home.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +9.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET - After winning with our play on the Clippers last night against the Mavs we will come right back with a bet against Dallas tonight. The Mavs are 6-7-1 AST their last 14 when playing without rest and their +/- in those games is just +1.6PPG which clearly isn’t enough for a cover tonight. Dallas is off to a 8-5 SU start to the season with a 7-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.1PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.1PPG. In their last five home games they have won by a combined 13-points. The Rockets have the 4th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.4PPG but they’ve also faced a brutal road schedule, with 8 of ten opponents having an above .500 record. Houston has covered 7 of the last ten meetings in Dallas and get another ATS ‘W’ here.

#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -2.5 over Memphis, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Billikens have been waiting for this one. Last year they finished with a 23-12 record and one of their worst losses of the season was @ Memphis 90-74. SLU actually attempted 22 more shots in that game but couldn’t hit the broadside making just 31% (Memphis hit 54%) and from beyond the arc only 23% (Memphis made 47%). While St Louis returns 5 players that started at least 16 games last year + they get Perkins back from injury (17 PPG in 2020/21 season), Memphis only has 3 players returning out of the 10 that played double digit minutes in last year’s game vs the Billikens. The Tigers have a number of transfers they are trying to incorporate which will take some time and they’ve only played 1 game so far this season. That was a 9-point win @ Vandy which doesn’t look all that impressive after the Commodores followed that loss up with another home 12-point setback vs Southern Miss who is projected by most to finish at the bottom of the Sun Belt this season. St Louis also added a veteran transfer from Missouri, Pickett, who averaged 11 PPG in the SEC last season and has scored 24 in his 2 games for SLU this year. They also have one of the more unheralded point guards in the nation in Yuri Collins who is drawing the attention of NBA scouts. St Louis was banged up last year with their top scorer Perkins on the shelf and a few other key players in and out of the line up and they still finished with a very good record. 8 of their 12 losses last year were by 7 points or less and now they are full strength and an undervalued team early in the season. With the short spread they may need to salt this one away at the FT line late and they can do just that hitting 80% from the stripe as a team this season after 77% a year ago. Huge home game for SLU and we’ll lay it.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford +5.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We think this Stanford team is undervalued to start the season. They are 1-1 with a win over Pacific and a loss vs a Wisconsin team that is much better than many think. In their game vs Wisconsin, which was in Milwaukee, the Cardinal were 4 point dogs and now they are getting 5 or 5.5 at home vs San Diego State in this game. We have this one powered to SDSU as a 2 point favored so the value is on Stanford. In their 60-50 loss vs the Badgers, the shooting lines at AmFam Field in Milwaukee (home of the Brewers) were horrible and it showed in the shooting percentages. Stanford shot just 36% and they were 1 of 16 from beyond the arc for 6%! We expect them to shoot much better at home where they hit 60% of their shots in the opener vs Pacific. Stanford returns 7 of their top 9 scorers from last year and add one of the top 3 point shooters in the country, Michael Jones, who averaged 12 PPG for Davidson last year. SDSU is very solid and one of the favorites in the MWC but a bit overvalued in our opinion. They just faced BYU, who we have power rated almost the same as Stanford, at home and while the Aztecs won by 8, they trailed for most of the game taking their first lead in the 2nd half with just over 4:00 remaining. The Aztecs had a huge edge at the FT line making 26 freebies to just 10 for BYU. That was a big revenge game for San Diego State after losing to BYU 66-60 last season. Now SDSU makes their first road trip of the season and they might be looking ahead to their trip to Hawaii for the Maui Classic up next. Not a great spot vs a solid team off a loss. Take the points with Stanford at home tonight.

ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS +7.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We don’t have a problem backing the Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back for several reasons. Going back to the start of last season the Clippers are 8-9 SU when playing without rest with a +/- of -1.1PPG. In their win last night, they spread their minutes out with no starter playing more than 30 minutes. In fact, 10 players played 18+ minutes. LA has been better on the road than at home this season with a 5-2 SU record and an average differential of +2.5PPG which is 5th best in the NBA. The key for the Clippers has been their defense on the road as they allow just 1.068-points per possession which is 2nd best in the league. Dallas is off to a 7-5 SU start to the season with a 6-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.8PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.3PPG. In their last four home games they have won by a combined 11-points. Too many points, grab the Clippers.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 @ Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - This offers a perfect opportunity to back an elite NBA team off a loss as the Suns just suffered a road defeat in Orlando. The Suns are 4-0 SU off a loss this season and an impressive 39-15 SU dating back to the start of the 2020 season in this situation. The record back to 2020 is the best in the NBA and they’ve won those games by an average of +7.3PPG. Not only that, the Suns have the best straight up road record since 2020 at 66-33 SU with a +/- of +3.1PPG. Typically, when you talk about the Miami Heat the first thing that comes to mind is defense, but that hasn’t been a strong point this season. In fact, Phoenix I 1st in points allowed per game, 6th in FG% defense and 2nd in overall defensive efficiency. The Heat are 11th in PPG given up per game, 24th in FG% defense and 24th in defending the 3-point line. The Suns also hold a big advantage offensively with the 4th best efficiency rating in the league compared to the Heat’s 17th ranking. Both teams have key injuries with the Suns potentially without Chris Paul the Heat may miss Tyler Herro for this contest. Miami is 0-6 ATS off a win, Phoenix is 8-3 ATS their last eleven off a loss.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +1.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - Statistical support is somewhat difficult for this analysis as the Hornets numbers are misleading based on the injured players to date. Charlotte has been without starting PG Ball who came back in their most recent game and logged 28-minutes with 15-points and 6 assists. He paid immediate dividends on the offensive end of the floor as the Hornets shot 51% for the game which was well above their season average of 44.6% which is 26th in the league. Orlando is in an unfamiliar role here as a favorite which has happened just one other time this season, a game in which they lost by 7 to the Rockets. The Hornets are playing with same season revenge here as they lost on this court a few weeks back by 20-points. Charlotte was without two starters in Rozier and Ball, while the Magic had rookie sensation Banchero in the lineup. Banchero is questionable tonight and not 100% even if he does play. Orlando has played the weaker schedule and is also off a big upset win over the Suns. Charlotte gets a much-needed road win here.

#862 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2.5 over Richmond, Monday at 7 PM ET - Richmond is a bit overvalued in our opinion due to their late season spurt last year. They finished the regular season 6th in the A10 but made a run in the conference tourney, won it, and went to the Big Dance where they beat Iowa in the first round. Problem is, they lose most of their key players from that team including 4 of their top 5 scorers. Thus far the Spiders have played 2 home games beating VMI, who is picked to finish last in the Southern Conference, and Northern Iowa who won the MVC last year but lost 4 of their top 5 players including conference player of the year AJ Green. Now they go on the road for the first time vs an undervalued C of C team. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). They return a number of key players from last year’s 17-15 team and are picked by many, including us, as one of the top teams in the Colonial this season. They just played #1 ranked North Carolina on the road on Friday giving the Heels all they could handle. C of C led by 7 at halftime and actually outrebounded UNC including an impressive 15 offensive boards. The Cougars ranked 10th nationally in offensive rebounding last season and should dominate the glass tonight. In their 16 point loss vs UNC, the Heels shot lights out at 60% and attempted 38 FT’s to just 9 for Charleston yet the Cougs were still leading midway through the 2nd half on the road. In their other game this season, Charleston beat Chattanooga by at, a team who won the SOCON last season (lost to Illinois by 1 point in the NCAA tourney) and is expected to finish near the top again this year. We’ll lay the small number with College of Charleston at home tonight.

#158 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -3.5 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Tech. They sit with a 4-5 record and need to win 2 of their last 3 games for bowl eligibility. They are catching Kansas coming off a huge home win vs Oklahoma State which made the Jayhawks bowl eligible for the first time since 2008. The celebrated as if they’d won the National Championship and now KU must go on the road where they’ve struggled. We expect a letdown here now that Kansas has achieved their goal of making it to a bowl game. They are 1-2 SU in Big 12 road games losing by double digits to both Oklahoma and Baylor (outgained by a combined 400+ yards in those games) and their lone win was @ WVU in OT way back on September 10th and we have the Mountaineers the lowest rated team in the Big 12. Last week’s 37-16 win over a really banged up OSU team wasn’t quite as impressive as it might seem. The Cowboys played without their starting QB along with a number of other key starters on the shelf as well. A week earlier OSU lost @ KSU 48-0. They simply have too many injuries to compete at a high level right now. It looks like KU starting QB Daniels will remain out meaning back up Bean will get his 4th straight start. Prior to last week’s win, Bean started 2 games on the road (Baylor & Oklahoma) and the Jayhawks were down 20+ points in the 2nd half of each game and made a late comeback making each look more respectable than they actually were losing by 10 & 12 points. Tech is much better than their 4-5 record. They’ve played very tough with all but one of the Big 12’s top teams and have led in the 2nd half of many of those conference losses. The Red Raiders have played the 4th toughest schedule in the nation yet their YPG differential is an impressive +89 YPG (Kansas is -1 YPG on the season). Their offense is always potent, however the Tech defense is vastly improved this year allowing 373 YPG after giving up over 400 YPG last season. They hold a solid edge on that side of the ball with the KU defense giving up 435 YPG. The Raiders did lose QB Morton to an injury last week, however he was their 3rd string QB to start the season and was forced into action when starter Shough and back up Smith went down. They are both back so whoever starts we’re fine at QB. We like the value here as Texas Tech was favored by 19 AT Kansas last year and won in blowout fashion. We understand KU is improved but that is a huge swing in the pointspread in just 1 year. Tech is 21-2 SU in this series and we look for a win and cover on Saturday.

#212 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arkansas +4 over LSU, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - Line value and situational play on the Razorbacks here. LSU is off their huge home 32-31 OT win vs Bama last week. The Tigers were outgained by 100 yards in that one and got the win when they decided to go for 2-points after their TD in the 1st OT. They also had a bye entering their game vs Alabama so it was a really good spot for LSU. Just a huge win and it will be tough for this team to play at their maximum level in a road game at Noon ET this Saturday. Arkansas is off an embarrassing 21-19 home loss vs Liberty as a 14 point favorite. The Razors outgained Liberty by 115 yards but were shutout on downs twice in Flames territory and threw 2 key interceptions. It wasn’t a huge upset by any means as Liberty is very solid with an 8-1 record and had Arkansas in a flat spot coming off a win @ Auburn with this huge match up vs LSU on deck. LSU has been an underdog in 4 straight games and now they flip to a favorite of more than a FG @ Arkansas? In the Tigers most recent road game they were a 1 point dog vs Florida who we have rated 1.5 points worse than Arkansas. Last year the Razorbacks were -3 @ LSU and now they are getting more than a FG at home in a perfect situational spot. We like the Arkansas ground game to have a solid day on Saturday as they rank 10th nationally averaging 235 YPG rushing and the LSU defense is OK (not great) at stopping the run allowing 140 YPG. LSU is a solid 7-2 on the season but they’ve had a fortunate schedule playing only 2 road games thus far and only 1 since October 1st. Arkansas needs one more win for bowl eligibility with only 3 left so this is a huge home game for them. We’ll take the points.

#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 just met on October 30th in Atlanta with the Falcons going off as a 4.5 point favorite. The Birds won the game 37-34 in OT but were outgained on both a YPG (+72) and YPP (+0.4) basis in that game. Now they are on the road and laying 2.5 points just 2 weeks later. Based on the line on October 30th, the Panthers should be a slight favorite here but they are getting nearly a FG. We like the value with Carolina in this one. Panther QB Walker had 317 yards passing, a career high, vs a leaky Atlanta defense that allowed 6.1 YPP (31st in the NFL). He should have plenty of confidence in this rematch just 2 weeks later. In his lone home start this season, Walker and the Panthers rolled over the Bucs 21-3 and it wasn’t a fluke as they outgained Tampa by +2.0 yards per play in that win. They take on an Atlanta team that is 0-4 SU on the road this year, getting outgained in each game by a combined 592 yards or an average of -148 YPG. Despite their 4-4 record, the Falcons have been outgained by an average of -0.8 YPP which ranks them 29th in the NFL. Carolina ranks 18th in YPP margin at -0.11. Atlanta has been a dog in every game but one this season (first match up with Carolina) and now they are laying points on the road for just the 4th time since the start of the 2019 season. We’ll take the better defense (Panthers 17th in YPP defense, Atlanta 31st) as a home dog in prime time.

#306630 ASA PLAY ON 8* South Dakota -5.5 over Lipscomb, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota took a loss on Tuesday at Wisconsin 85-59. We think that blowout setback is giving us some value here as our ratings have the Coyotes favored by 7 in this game. SD returns the top backcourt in the Summit League with Perrott-Hunt (15 PPG) and Archambault (14.5 PPG) from a team that went 19-12 last year. They also bring back guard Plitzuweit who sat out last season due to an injury after averaging 19 PPG as a freshman in 2020 and North Dakota transfer Bruns who put up 15 PPG last year and was the Summit’s freshman of the year. This backcourt is loaded. Because of their strong guard play, the Coyotes ranked 22nd nationally last year hitting over 37% of their triples. On Tuesday vs Wisconsin, they were just 2 of 15 from deep for just 13% vs the defensively stout Badgers. They hung fairly well on the boards despite being outsized (-5 rebounds) and only turned the ball over 10 times which is a testament to their solid guard play. Now back at home, South Dakota takes a big step down from a team that won the Big 10 last year (Wisconsin) to Lipscomb who finished 6-10 last season in the Atlantic Sun Conference. The Bisons had some key injury problems last season and will be improved but we feel this is a tough spot for their first game of the season. While SD will own a solid edge in the backcourt, Lipscomb will have an advantage inside with Asadullah patrolling the middle. However, Wisconsin also had a big edge inside and South Dakota did a very solid job of limiting their inside scoring by double teaming the post. The problem was, when they did that, the Badgers hit lights out from beyond the arc making 12 of 26 (46%). We don’t anticipate Lipscomb being that successful shooting from deep on the road in their first game of the season. Lay the rather small number with South Dakota at home.

ASA top play 10* on #544 Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:40 PM ET - The Hawks have strung together three quality wins over the Knicks, Pelicans and most recently the Bucks. The win over Milwaukee was significant considering Trae Young did not play. He is expected to be in the lineup tonight versus the Jazz. Atlanta is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +5PPG differential. The Hawks were 27-11 SU a year ago at home with the exact same +/- of +5PPG. As a home favorite the Hawks are 22-17 ATS their last 39 and they win those games by an average of +6.1PPG. Utah has certainly been one of the biggest surprises early on as nobody predicted them to be 9-3 SU at this point after trading away Mitchell and Gobert. The Jazz are 4-3 SU on the road but only one of those four road wins came against a team with a winning record (6-5 Clippers). Utah isn’t great as a road dog with a 7-7-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -6.9PPG. Lastly, we like to fade a team like the Jazz off a HUGE 139-point offensive showing and win over a hated rival like the Lakers. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers but the situation and setting favors the Hawks.

#110 ASA PLAY ON 8* Central Michigan PK -110 over Buffalo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Buffalo has the better record here at 5-4 compared to CMU’s 3-6 mark but we feel the Chippewas are the better team. We have this game power rated to CMU -3.5 so we’re getting some nice value with this number. The Chips are off a big win @ NIU last week 35-22 and they outgained the Huskies by 136 yards. Buffalo had won 5 in a row before getting torched by Ohio last week 45-24 and outgained by 222 yards. Despite their 5-1 record over the last 6 games, the Bulls were outgained in half of those games so they’ve been a bit fortunate. That’s been the theme of their season as Buffalo has a YPP differential of -1.2 on the year and they’ve been outgained by 18 YPG. CMU, despite playing a slightly more difficult schedule, has a dead even YPP differential and they are outgaining their opponents by +26 YPG. They’ve been very unlucky in the turnover department as the Chippewas have lost more fumbles than any other team in the nation! CMU has the much better defense here allowing 1.1 fewer YPP than the Bulls stop unit. Central also ranks #1 in the MAC (conference games) allowing just 331 YPG while Buffalo gives up 396 YPG in league play. The host should also control the line of scrimmage here as CMU sports a +0.3 YPC differential and Buffalo is -1.6 in that category. If the Chippewas can limit their turnovers here, we expect them to win this game at home.

#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - MNF road favorites are 0-2 ATS this season and just 2-9 ATS since the start of last season. We like this match up for the Saints and feel they are undervalued due to their 3-5 SU record. They are better than that record indicates. They’ve been quite unlucky in the turnover category this season ranking dead last in the NFL turnover margin at -9. Meanwhile, the Ravens have been very fortunate in that category ranking 2nd in the NFL in TO margin at +6. That fact is, teams that win the TO battle for a specific game win close to 80% of the time so the numbers above for the Saints & Ravens have factored in heavily to their current records. In large part because of that Baltimore has played above their estimated win total thus far of 4 (based on advanced stats of each game) and New Orleans has played below their estimated win total which is also 4. We expect the TO’s to even out so to speak for each team moving forward. The Saints, despite their 3-5 record, are actually 6th in the NFL in YPP margin at +0.64 and the 6 teams ahead of them all have winning records with the exception of SF which is 4-4. The combined record of the 5 teams ahead of the Saints in this key category is 30-10. Baltimore ranks 11th in YPP margin despite their superior record. New Orleans is +75 YPG this season while the Ravens have actually been outgained by about 5 YPG this season. We like the way New Orleans is playing right now outgaining 4 straight opponents including Cincinnati and Seattle who rank 10th and 11th in total offense. The defense is coming off a shutout holding the Raiders scoreless last weekend and they’ve held 3 straight opponents to below their season average in YPG. The offense is humming averaging 31 PPG over their last 4 and they’ve hit at least 399 total yards in 3 of those 4 games. Baltimore’s pass game took a huge hit here with leading receiver TE Andrews declared out so they will have to rely even more on the running game tonight (starting RB Edwards most likely out as well) vs a Saints defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in rush defense. We think the Saints are the better team and getting points at home. Take it.

#506 ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +2 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are 2-8 SU on the season and off to a disappointing start with their young roster. OKC on the other hand is 4-5 SU and playing above expectations. In this scenario though we have to back the home underdog with Detroit. The Pistons are coming off a horrible home loss to the Cavs on Friday night after winning their previous home game over the Warriors by 14. Sandwiched between those two home games were a pair of losses in Milwaukee. OKC is also off a pair of losses after winning 4 straight. The Thunder are 1-3 SU on the road this season and if we look at a larger sample size, we find they were 12-29 SU away from home last year. In those road contests in 202122 they had a net differential of minus -9.8PPG which was one of the worst average W/L margins in the NBA. This is more of a play against the Thunder who find themselves in an unfamiliar role as a road favorite which has happened once since 2020. The Pistons have a solid cover rate as a home dog at 57.9% since the start of last season.

#472 ASA top play on 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -12 vs Tennessee Titans, 8:20 PM ET - The Titans 5-2 record is very misleading for several reasons: They have been outgained in every game but one and have a negative Net Yardage differential of -0.6Yards Per Play. Their 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 13-22 record. Their two losses to winning teams the Bills (by 34 and Giants by 1-point). They were +10 at Buffalo (similar to KC) and lost by 34. KC 4-3 ATS last seven off a bye with a +14PPG differential. Titans QB Tannehill is ? with an ankle injury. If he can’t go that means rookie QB Malik Willis will start, and he was 6 of 10 last week for 55 yards with an INT and is not a threat in the passing game. Tennessee got a huge rushing game from Derrick Henry last week but that was against the Texans defense that is last in the NFL in rushing defense. That won’t happen here against a Chiefs defense that is 3rd in the NFL in rushing D at 92YPG allowed. Kansas City and Mahomes should put up huge numbers with their 2nd ranked passing offense (296PYPG) versus the 24th ranked Titans pass D (254.7PYPG).

#458 ASA PLAY ON 8* Washington Commanders +3 over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Vikings are vastly overvalued in our opinion. They come in with a 6-1 record but they’ve been outgained in total yardage on the season. They rank 27th in YPP differential despite facing the 21st most difficult schedule thus far. 5 of their 6 wins have come by a one score margin and they rank #2 in the NFL in turnover differential at +6. In other words, this team has been VERY fortunate to get to the record they have. Washington actually has a slight better YPP margin than the Vikings despite their 4-4 record. The Commanders are trending in the right direction having won 3 straight games and QB Heinicke gives them a better chance to be successful offensively than starter Wentz who is out. In his 2 starts this season, wins over GB & Indy, Heinicke has completed over 67% of his passes for 480 yards. Washington has outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents and their only loss over their last 4 games was 21-17 vs Tennessee in a game the Commanders outgained the Titans by almost 200 yards! Minnesota already has a huge lead in the NFC North with no other team above .500 and with a big game @ Buffalo on deck, this is a dangerous spot for the Purple & Gold. Tough to lay points on the road with a defense that ranks 28th in the NFL in both total D and YPP allowed. Take the points with Washington.

#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -3.5 over NC State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wake is coming off a horrible performance @ Louisville last Saturday and we like them to bounce back in a big way here. Last week the Deacs were favored by -3 @ Louisville and lost the game 48-21. The yardage in the game was dead even however WF had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game, including 6 in the third quarter alone that led to the Cards scoring 35 points in that quarter. Four of Louisville’s five TD’s in the third quarter came on 2 pick 6’s, a 9 yard TD drive and a 33 yard TD drive. It was simply a game where everything went wrong for Wake. Let’s remember prior to that loss, WF was 6-1 on the season with their only loss coming in OT vs Clemson. It was their first road loss of the season after rolling @ Vandy by 20 points and winning @ Florida State by 10. NC State is ranked in the top 25 but they are seriously overvalued right now. That’s because they lost their veteran starting QB Leary three weeks ago and they have not been impressive in their 2 games since he went out. The Wolfpack lost 24-9 @ Syracuse and then last week had to rally from down 21-3 at home vs a bad Virginia Tech team to win 22-21. They made a switch at QB to true freshman Morris last week after getting behind and he rallied them back in his first extended action of the season. This week he’ll be making the first start of his career which is much different that coming in off the bench. Wake has film on the inexperienced starter and we expect him to struggle. The Demon Deacon offense has had all kinds of success vs NC State’s defense averaging 38 PPG over the last 5 meetings and the last 2 years with QB Hartman at the helm they’ve scored 45 and 42 points. NC State has a negative YPP differential on the season and they were outgained in 4 of their 6 games BEFORE QB Leary was injured. Wake is the better team, off a bad loss, with a huge edge at the QB position. Lay the small number.

#362 ASA Play on 8* Missouri Pick’em/+1 vs Kentucky, 12 PM ET - Kentucky is coming off their “Game of the Year” against Tennessee last week in which they lost 6-44 in blowout fashion. Cats QB Will Levis struggled on the day going 16 of 27 for just 98-yards with 3 INT’s. That should shift the Wildcats focus offensively to the running game which has struggled this season at 117.5-rushing yards per game (106th). Not to mention, the Tigers rush defense allows just 116-RYPG which ranks 27th in the nation. Missouri ranks 18th overall in YPG allowed at 311 and have held opponents to 21.5PPG which ranks them 33rd. This Mizzo team gave Georgia their best game of the season losing by just 4-points at home. UK is 1-2 SU on the road this season and have been out gained and lost 3 of their last four games overall. Last season Kentucky was the much better team, and they were a -5.5-point favorite at home and won by just 7-points. More handle and tickets have flowed in on Kentucky, yet the line moved in the opposite direction.

ASA PLAY ON 8* OREGON STATE +4.5 @ Washington – Friday, 10:30 PM ET - Washington has won 9 of the last 10 meetings but the Beavers did win last year as a -2.5-point favorite at home. The weather conditions call for 81% rain and 17MPH winds which should favor the rushing attack of Oregon State vs. the passing offense of Washington (#1). In doing a comparative schedule assessment the Beavers have played the tougher schedule with games against Fresno State, USC and Utah. Washington’s toughest opponent faced this year is UCLA who they lost to by 8-points and were outgained by 89-yards. On paper Washington has the 21st best rushing defense in college football allowing 110.4RYPG but those numbers are misleading as they’ve faced 5 offenses that rank 82nd or worse in rushing O. The Beavers average 195.8-rushing yards per game which is 30th in college football and should have a big advantage here, especially in poor conditions. In fact the only rushing attack they have faced similar to Oregon State’s is UCLA who put up 184-rushing yards against them. Road team 6-1 ATS the last seven. Beavers 8-2 ATS last ten in Washington.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and a big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one.

#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State -3 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Coastal steps into this home game with a 7-1 record yet they are underdogs vs the 5-3 App State Mountaineers. We agree and feel ASU is the much better team. We’ve felt Coastal has been overrated most of the season and they are not a 7-1 team. Their most recent home game the Chanticleers were whipped by 28 points vs Old Dominion and Coastal was favored by 12 in that game. That loss was no fluke as a rather average ODU offense put up a ridiculous 10.7 YPP to just 5.6 YPP for CC. The Monarchs destroyed Coastal in the trenches as well averaging over 10 YPC to just 2.1 YPC for the Chanticleers. Last week it looks like Coastal rebounded well beating Marshall but that wasn’t the case as they were again dominated gaining just 271 yards while allowing 407. Marshall turnovers and penalties were key in that win for CC. Now they face an App State team that is among the best rushing teams in the nation and we look for CC to get dominated at the line of scrimmage again. App State has played the tougher schedule facing 2 Power 5 opponents (UNC & Texas A&M) while Coastal hasn’t faced a Power 5 opponent and has a strength of schedule ranking of 121st. Despite that App State has a YPP differential of +1.5 and a YPG differential of +150 compared to CC who sits at +0.2 YPP and +22 YPG. Remember this ASU team took UNC to the wire (lost by 2) and beat Texas A&M on the road. We’ll take the much better team and lay only 3 points here.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 at Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - Scheduling plays an important part of the equation tonight as the Hornets are rested while Chicago is off a game in Brooklyn last night. Another key factor is the results of both teams previous games. The Hornets are off an embarrassing home loss to the Kings, Chicago is off an upset win over the Nets. Chicago is 0-2 SU/ATS this season when playing the second night of a B2B and have been lost by 5 and 32-points. Dating back to the start of last season, the Bulls are 8-10-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Hornets are 12-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Charlotte is 26-19 ATS their last 45 road games with an average margin of victory of minus -0.7PPG which gets us an easy cover here. One key aspect of this game that clearly favors the Hornets is their 7th best 3-point percentage shooting against a Bulls defense that ranks 29th in defending the 3-point line. Chicago’s starter saw extended minutes last night so fatigue becomes a factor late and the Hornets get a solid cover.

#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5.5 over Central Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - NIU is undervalued with a 2-6 record in our opinion. Their starting QB Lombardi has played in only 1 of their 4 conference games and the Huskies won that game 39-10 @ Eastern Michigan. It looks like he’ll be back for this one and NIU is just happy to be at home for once. They have played ONE home game since September 17th and we’re now into November. That one home game was a loss to the MAC’s best team, Toledo, however Lombardi didn’t play and Northern still outgained the Rockets by 75 yards in that loss. Toledo had 2 pick 6’s in the game. NIU has now outgained every conference opponent this year despite only having 1 win in MAC play. CMU is also 1-4 in conference play with their only win coming vs league doormat Akron and by only 7 points. The Chips followed that unimpressive win up by getting smoked by a bad Bowling Green team 34-18. That’s a BG team that had only won 7 of their previous 27 games dating back to 2019. In that game CMU pulled their starting QB Richardson who has been struggling and inserted inexperienced freshman Bauer who played OK. He may start here which would be his first road start ever. At worst, it sounds like they may rotate QB’s here so with Lombardi starting for NIU we have a big advantage under center. The Huskies should control the line of scrimmage here ranking 22nd nationally in rushing and they’ve outrushed all but Vanderbilt and Toledo this season. Central Michigan has solid overall defensive numbers vs the run, however they’ve played a very weak schedule of rush offenses including their 2 most recent games vs Akron (128th rushing) and BG (110th rushing). The one good running team they’ve faced in MAC play was Toledo and the Rockets rolled them for 250+ yards on the ground. We like NIU to win by at least a TD here.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The one negative to this wager is the fact the Raptors are off a home loss which we don’t like but the value in the number clearly favors the Hawks. Atlanta is also off a loss in Milwaukee by 8-points 115-123. The Hawks were getting +5.5-points in that game against the 5-0 Bucks who have an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. Now they are catching +4 at Toronto? Another comparison is the Raptors were just-3.5 at home against the 76ers who were playing without Embiid. Both teams have solid spread results when coming off a loss so that’s a wash. Were the Hawks have a big advantage is offensively as they average 1.164-points per possession (8th) compared to the Raptors 1.104PPP which is 24th in the league. Defensively these two teams are relatively even with both giving up around the league average in terms of points per possession. The Hawks have one of the best scoring point guards in the league in Trae Young who could be in line for a big game seeing the Raps just gave up 44-points to the Sixers Maxey.

#276 ASA PLAY ON 8* Buffalo Bills -10.5 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Green Bay is getting over 70% of the tickets in this game and we don’t see why. We are here in Wisconsin and follow the team very closely. We understand the “Rodgers has never been a double digit underdog” stuff but this is one of the worst teams he’s been a part of. He can’t do it by himself and with inexperience at the WR position and an injured and struggling offensive line, we just don’t see how they stay in this game. Buffalo is easily the best team in the NFL so far this season with a YPP differential of +2.0 which is tops in the NFL. The next best YPP differential in the league is below +1.0 which gives you an idea of how far ahead they are. On top of that, they are coming off a bye week. In their 2 home games this season, the Bills have outscored the Titans and Steelers 79-10 and they outgained those 2 teams by a whopping +4.0 YPP! Can Green Bay’s offense keep up in this game? We don’t think so. In their 3 game losing streak vs the Giants, Jets, and Commanders, they were outgained by a full 1.0 YPP and averaged only 4.5 YPP on offense. Now facing a Buffalo defense that ranks #1 in total defense and rush defense, GB is in trouble. Defensively the Packers allowed 27, 27, and 23 points the last 3 weeks vs Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, and Taylor Heinicke and now they face a rested Josh Allen. If the Packers were going to “flip the switch” so to speak it would have been vs one of those 3 teams, not @ Buffalo. This team is what it is. Just not very good and we think Buffalo wins big.

#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +3.5 over Minnesota Vikings, nday at 1:00 PM ET - The Vikings are seen to have a scheduling advantage here as they are coming off a bye but it’s very minimal at best because Arizona played last Thursday so they’ve had 10 days off as well. The Vikings are 5-1 SU but they’ve been extremely fortunate to get to that mark. They rank 27th in the NFL in YPP differential at -0.67 despite playing an easy schedule (20th SOS thus far). The only teams they’ve faced that currently has a winning records are Philadelphia and the Vikings were dominated in that game (24-7 loss) and Miami (Vikings won by 8) who actually outgained Minnesota by over 100 yards and had to start rookie Thompson at QB. Since getting toasted by KC in the opener, the Cardinals have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents. Their offense has some momentum coming in off a 42 point outburst vs a solid Saints defense and facing a bad Minnesota defense (27th in total defense) we expect the Arizona offense to have a very solid day. That success coincided with the return of their top WR Hopkins who had over 100 yards receiving in his first game back from suspension. QB Murray is very comfortable with him and has much better numbers when Hopkins is on the field. Also home field advantage is limited at best in Arizona games as they are a much better road team than a home team. They have a 10-2 SU regular season road record since the start of last year and as a road underdog the Cards have covered 8 straight as a road dog winning all 8 games OUTRIGHT. We feel Minnesota is overvalued here and getting more than a FG with Arizona is the way to go.

#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri +3.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 4 PM ET - South Carolina is coming off what looks like a solid 30-24 win over Texas A&M in a home night game last week. The fact is, the Gamecocks were outgained by 112 yards in that win but got out to a 17-0 lead in the 1st quarter and it took them 19 yards of TOTAL offense to get out to that 17 point lead. SC returned the opening kick for a TD, then kicked a FG (after 0 yards gained) and scored a TD (after 19 yards gained) following 2 A&M turnovers. Then on top of that, A&M lost their starting QB King with the Aggies making a comeback cutting the lead to 3 and were left with their 3rd string QB who is a freshman from that point on. South Carolina is on a 4 game winning streak which is giving us some value here. Last week’s win was deceiving as we mentioned, and prior to that they topped Kentucky who was playing without their starting QB and probable first round draft pick Will Levis. Prior to that they had beaten FCS South Carolina State and Charlotte who ranks among the worst teams in FBS. Not a great 4 game run despite them winning all 4. Meanwhile Mizzou has showed some really solid play this year when stepping up in class. They gave Georgia all they could handle actually leading the Bulldogs 22-12 into the 4th quarter before UGA scored 2 TD’s to win 26-22 (SOUTH CARO LOST TO UGA 48-7 at home). The Tigers went to Florida and lost by a TD but outgained the Gators by 73 yards and they lost in OT by 3 points @ Auburn outgaining the host in that game as well. Missouri brings in a high level defense ranking in the top 20 nationally in both YPG and YPP allowed. They also run the ball well (157 YPG) and they are facing a Gamecock defense that ranks 98th defending the run. This sets up as a letdown afternoon game for SC after their rousing atmosphere last Saturday evening vs A&M. They are 1-7-1 ATS following an ATS win and we feel Missouri is actually the better team here. Take the points.

#114 ASA PLAY ON 8* Florida International +6.5 over Louisiana Tech, Friday at 8 PM ET - We like the fight in this FIU team. They looked like potentially the worst team on CFB earlier this year but they’ve improved dramatically under head coach Mike MacIntyre. Since getting absolutely embarrassed by Western Kentucky back in late September, this team is 2-2 and has outgained 3 of their last 4 opponents. Last week they blitzed Charlotte as a 14 point underdog winning by 19 points outright. The Panthers outgained Charlotte by 116 yards and they led 34-0 in the 4th quarter before the 49ers picked up a few meaningless points late. FIU has covered 3 of their last 4 games, each by at least 2 TD’s. They face a La Tech team coming off a home OT loss vs Rice. The Bulldogs were outgained by 114 yards in the game and have now been outgained in EVERY game with the exception of FCS Stephen F Austin. LT has been outgained by 884 total yards in their 6 games vs FBS opponents for an average YPG margin of -147. Their defense has been an absolute sieve ranking dead last in the nation (131st) in rush defense, 130th in scoring defense, and 129th in both total defense and YPP allowed (7.0). The FIU defense has been respectable allowing just 5.5 YPP on the season so we have a big edge defensively with the home dog. LT has lost all 4 road games this season each by at least 18 points and while those opponents were better than FIU, let’s not forget that La Tech is FAVORED by a TD or more in this one depending on where you play. That’s a Bulldog team that has won just 2 of their last 17 road games outright. They als have issues at the QB position with starter McNeil and backup Downing both exiting last week with injuries leaving freshman Lyddy at the helm to finish the game. We’ll take the points here with FIU at home on Friday night.

#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -8 over Chicago, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Pats are better than their 3-3 record as they rank 7th in the NFL in YPP differential. They’ve outgained 4 of their last 6 opponents with Green Bay and Miami their only opponents to outgain them. Starting QB Mac Jones looks like he will return tonight, however if for some reason he does not back up QB Bailey Zappe has really played well and last week he put up over 300 yards passing and completed over 70% of his passes. Chicago will be in trouble offensively here vs a Patriot defense that has allowed 15 points over their last 2 games. They’ve outscored their last 2 opponents 67-15 and the defense has allowed just 4.9 YPP over their last 2 games vs Detroit (ranked 2nd in total offense) and Cleveland (ranked 5th in total offense). Now they face a Chicago team ranked 28th in total offense so we just don’t see the Bears doing much on that side of the ball. Chicago has scored 12 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games and the only 2 games they topped that number was vs Houston (ranked 31st in total defense) and Minnesota (ranked 26t in total defense). The Patriots have scored 24 or more in 4 straight games and that’ll be enough to get this cover. Belichick is 62-32 ATS in October and we look for his defense to own Chicago and QB Fields in this game. Lay the points.

#470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers +1 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking strong and hard at defensive home dogs and we have one here. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season ranking 1st in total defense and 2nd in passing defense, rushing defense, and scoring defense. They are allowing opposing teams to run just 5.3 PLAYS in the red zone this season which is tops in the NFL. San Fran is also getting some reinforcements back on that side of the ball (DE Joey Bosa included) after a number of players missed last week. The Niners are also coming off an embarrassing loss @ Atlanta last week but it was a tough situational spot playing back to back Sundays on the east coast AND the injury situation for SF last week was not good. Offensively they get LT Williams, one of the best in the NFL, back this week which is huge. They also picked up RB McCaffrey from Carolina and he will be in the line up this week, especially in red zone situations. QB Garoppolo and company should have plenty of success vs a banged up KC secondary that has allowed 75% of their opponents yards to come through the air (most in the NFL) and has given up at least 2 TD passes in every game this season, they only NFL defense to do that. SF comes in undervalued with a 3-3 record but they’ve been a bit unlucky with injuries this season. The fact is, they have the 2nd best YPP differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo so they are absolutely better than their record. They are getting a KC team here coming off their huge game vs Buffalo and in their most recent 2 road games the Chiefs lost @ Indianapolis and beat a down Tampa team despite getting outgained by 1.0 YPP in that game. Under head coach Shanahan, the 49ers have covered the spread 15 of the last 20 times they’ve been an underdog. We like them on Sunday.

#454 ASA PLAY ON 8* Jacksonville Jaguars -3 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Hmm…There is a reason the team that has a 2-4 record is favored over the team with a 5-1 record in this game. This is just a huge game for the underrated Jags at home. They can’t afford to drop to 2-5 and they are viewing this 3 game home stand (Giants, Broncos, Chiefs) as a chance to get back on track. The Jags have the 9th best YPP differential in the NFL at +0.45 which would normally equate to a record above .500 rather than a mark of 2-4. They are outgaining their opponents 358 YPG to 333 YPG and they’ve consistently won at the line of scrimmage with a impressive +1.3 yards per carry differential. They led or were tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of their 4 losses this year so their record could obviously be much better. QB Trevor Lawrence has taken a big step forward this year completing almost 66% of his passes (59% last year) with 9 TD’s (12 total passing TD’s last season). He has a solid running game (9th in the NFL) to support him. The Jacksonville offense should thrive vs a NYG defense that ranks 23rd in YPP allowed and was gashed for 7.0 YPP last week vs Baltimore. The Giants were outplayed on the field to the tune of 7.0 YPP (for Baltimore) to 3.8 YPP (for NYG) and allowed 8.7 yards per carry and gained just 2.7 YPC and somehow won the game! That has been a common theme that simply can’t continue. The Giants rank 26th in the NFL in YPP differential yet somehow have a 5-1 record. NY will again be without many of their offensive weapons (3 WR’s) and now their top player on offense, RB Barkley, is not 100% and may not play. If he can’t go the Giants could be a big trouble with their top WR’s out and they rank 31st in passing averaging barely 150 YPG. Lay the FG with Jacksonville at home on Sunday.

#71 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 -135 on the Puck Line over Nashville Predators, Saturday at 8:05 PM ET - Nashville started the season with two big wins in Europe over the Sharks but then came home flat. They lost to Dallas twice after coming home and still have not won a game since returning from Europe. Now after blowing big lead at Columbus and losing to Blue Jackets, it is becoming evident these Predators can not be trusted right now. We had Nashville in that one and did not like the way they once again imploded in a game they had won. Unlike the Preds, the Flyers have been a resilient group under their new head coach as John Tortorella has really lit a fire under this team. Even if they don't win this outright, the Flyers should cover the puck line here. Philly does not have a loss by more than 1 goal this season and in fact won their first 3 games of the season. Predators on a losing streak and we take advantage of all this here. We think we’re getting some nice value getting this hungry road team at -135 on the puck line in this one with the Flyers as it is the perfect set-up for an away win or, at least, road cover!

#317 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State +3.5 over TCU, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Very solid situation advantage spot for KSU in this game. The Wildcats are coming off a bye week and they are facing a TCU team that is playing their 5th consecutive Saturday and all have been big games so to speak. The last 4 weeks the Horned Frogs have played cross town arch rival SMU, Big 12 power Oklahoma (OU played without their starting QB), an undefeated at the time Kansas team, and a huge game last week vs Oklahoma State. Last week they trailed at home to OSU by 14 in the 4th quarter, pushed the game to OT where TCU won 43-40 on double OT. Can the Frogs possibly bring their “A” game again this week vs a high level opponent off a bye? We don’t think so. That was such a tough stretch of games we just don’t see it. KSU steps into this game with a 5-1 SU record (4-1-1 ATS) facing the 26th toughest schedule in the country. They have won 3 straight vs Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Iowa State. The Cats have the defensive advantage here allowing 40 fewer total YPG and 0.4 fewer YPP. TCU’s offensive numbers are impressive, however we think the Wildcats will have some very solid success on the ground and control this game in the trenches. KSU QB Martinez (former Nebraska starter) has been very solid this year both through the air (900 yards passing and 4 TD’s) and on the ground (546 yards rushing) and can be very difficult to defend. TCU has decent defensive numbers vs the rush, however this will be the best running team they’ve faced this season (KSU ranks 7th nationally at 244 rush YPG). The one similar type team TCU faced was Kansas who has a mobile QB and can run the ball. In that game KU’s QB Daniels went out early in the game and the Jayhawks were still able to put up nearly 200 yards rushing. The early week forecast calls for 20 MPH winds which will definitely benefit KSU as TCU passes the ball much more often (10 more attempts per game). This one sets up very nicely for the dog and we’ll grab Kansas State.

#407 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State +2.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way Boise is trending here after QB Bachmeier decided to transfer and they’ve been starting Green at QB. The defense was always very good, they just couldn’t get anything going on offense with Bachmeier under center. If we throw out their FCS game vs UT Martin, the offense under Bachmeier averaged 19 PPG and just 268 total YPG. In their 2 games since Green took over they have crushed San Diego State and Fresno State, the Broncos are averaging 37.5 PPG and 446 total YPG. As we stated, the defense has been great ranking 2nd in the nation in YPG (235) allowed and 5th in YPP allowed (4.1). The Boise rush defense has been top notch allowing just 101 YPG on 3.0 YPC which is key vs an Air Force offense thar runs the ball an average of 59 times per game (2nd most in the nation). Boise has also had two full weeks to prepare for this offense coming off last week’s bye. Air Force is coming off a big win over UNLV but we feel they are trending downward. The Rebels had a number of injuries last week including their starting QB who didn’t play in the game giving AF a big advantage. In their 2 games without their starting QB Brumfield, UNLV has lost by a combined score of 82-14 which tells you how important he is. Prior to last week, the Falcons struggled to beat a down Navy team 13-10 and lost to Utah State with USU playing their back up QB. While Boise is off their bye, AF is playing for the 8th consecutive week. Undervalued vs Overvalued here in our opinion. Take the dog Boise State.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Thursday, 7:30 PM ET - This is a really good spot to back the 76ers who have a game under their belt against the Bucks playing their first game which is also on the road. Not too mention, the Sixers are off a loss to the Celtics in their season opener on Tuesday night. Philly has been solid off a loss with a 33-28-2 ATS record dating back to the start of 2020 and they’ve won those games by an average of +4PPG. Philly has the 4th best average Margin of Victory at home since 2020 at +6PPG. The Bucks may struggle out of the gate this season with All-Star Khris Middleton sidelined for 4-6 weeks and now Pat Connaughton out for this game. You may be surprised to know the Bucks were not a good road underdog last season with a 6-11 ATS record and a negative differential of minus -9PPG. The road team won all three meetings a year ago but that changes tonight. Lay the short number with Philly.

#275 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos +4.5 over LA Chargers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Denver steps into this one with a 2-3 SU record with their 3 losses coming by a combined 13 points and 2 of those losses coming by a FG or less. Their overall offensive numbers are decent rating as average in both YPP and YPG. The problem is they’ve struggled in the redzone and their efficiency numbers (1 point for every 22.9 yards) is at the bottom of the NFL. We don’t expect that to continue. We look for those numbers to start to even out and Denver will put points on the board. This looks like a game where that may happen as the Broncos have had 11 days off to make some changes after playing on Thursday night and they are facing an LAC defense that ranks 31st in scoring. LA just allowed their last 3 opponents (Jax, Houston, and Cleveland) to score 38, 24, and 28 points. The Chargers offense has put up some good numbers but 3 of the 5 opponents they’ve faced rank 25th, 27th, and 30th in scoring defense and 4 of the 5 stop units they’ve played rank outside the top half in DVOA per Football Outsiders. The one top 10 defense they’ve faced was Jacksonville and the Chargers were held to 10 points in that game. Now we don’t expect anything like that tonight, but Denver’s defense is the best LAC has faced ranking 3rd in total defense and 4th in defensive DVOA. They also rank 3rd in the NFL in pass defense which matches up nicely with the Chargers pass heavy offense. LA is banged up on the offensive line with 3 starters potentially out and at WR as Allen will most likely sit again. In a division game we like the much better defense in what we think will be a tight game. Getting more than the key numbers of 3 and 4, it’s a go for us on Denver +4.5.

#274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -6 or -6.5 over Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a rough situational spot for Dallas as they played the Rams on the west coast last weekend and now they are in Philly on the east coast this weekend. It’s also their 3rd road trip in the last 4 weeks. It looks like Dallas QB Prescott will be sidelined again for this game leaving it up to back up Cooper Rush who was solid the first 2 weeks but struggled a bit last week in LA as teams have more film on him. Rush threw for only 102 yards last week, had 10 first downs, and Dallas only averaged 4.5 YPP. They picked up a defensive score which helped them to a 22-10 win. So just 14 points on offense which won’t get it done here vs a potent Eagle attack that ranks 2nd in total offense and 5th in scoring. The Dallas defense has been superb this year, however they haven’t faced a top notch attack yet. The offenses they’ve faced so far this season rank 20th, 21st, 22nd, 25th and 26th in total offense. They’ve faced one mobile QB this season (NYG Daniel Jones) but Philadelphia QB Hurts has been playing at a completely different level and we look for the Cowboy defense to struggle here. Despite their 4-1 record, Dallas has been pretty luck as they are actually getting outgained by -13 YPG and outrushed 4.2 YPC to 4.7 YPC. The Eagles are every bit as good as their 5-0 record outgaining opponents by +121 YPG with the 2nd best point differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo. The Eagles are definitely the better team here, in the much better situation, and will be motivated after getting rolled by Dallas twice last season. Anything under a TD we’ll lay in this one.

#266 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +4.5 over San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - A terrible spot here for the Niners. They played last week @ Carolina and came away with a 37-15 win and had to stay on the east coast this week taking on Atlanta. Their 37 points last week was a bit deceiving as they had a defensive TD and a 3 yard drive late in the game when Carolina was shut out on downs. The defense was successful as well facing a bad Carolina offense that ranks 30th in the NFL averaging 4.8 YPP. This week will be tougher for this SF team facing a better Atlanta offense with a defense that is really banged up. 3 of their 4 starting defensive linemen including Bosa, their top LB, and a few DB’s, including Mosely their top corner, all out here. The SF defense is #1 in the NFL vs the run this season, however with all the injuries up front they will take a step back here vs an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in the NFL averaging almost 170 YPG on the ground. The Niners have also had problems with mobile QB’s this season. They’ve faced just 2 QB’s with similar mobility to Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota and lost both of those games vs Denver (Russell Wilson) and Chicago (Justin Fields). The last 2 teams they’ve played, Rams & Panthers, rank 32nd and 28th in rushing so today will be a big adjustment for this banged up SF defense. Atlanta perfect vs the spread (5-0 ATS) and their biggest loss this season was by 6 points last week @ Tampa. This one will be close and we’ll grab the points.

#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kentucky +4 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 7:30PM ET - Kentucky got off to a great start to the season but has now lost two straight games. The Cats most recent loss to South Carolina has impacted this line and given us more value with the home underdog. Last week UK was without future NFL 1st rounder QB Will Levis who practiced this week and is back for this game. Additionally, this is a spot to sell high on Mississippi State, who is off a pair of huge SEC wins against Arkansas and Texas A&M. Not to mention the Bulldogs have a monster game on deck against Alabama. The Bulldogs benefitted from facing a pair of back up QB’s in their last two wins and were +5 in turnovers. The MSU defense still gave up 483-total yards to Arkansas and 388-yards to Texas A&M. The one road game against a comparable opponent to Kentucky was versus LSU and the Bulldogs were outgained by 129-yards and lost by 15-points. The Wildcats should have success with their running game against a Bulldog defense that gives up 139.8-rushing yards per game (56th) which will then open up the passing attack for Levis. Kentucky also allows the 14th least passing yards per game at 182.2 with opponents completing just 15.8-pass attempts per game which is 13th in the nation. Last season MISS ST won at home 31-17 as a 1-point favorite. The home team has covered 8-straight in this series with the host winning by an average of +15.5PPG.

#198 ASA PLAY ON 8* North Texas -6.5 over Louisiana Tech, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We were on La Tech last week in a perfect situation for the Bulldogs.  They were coming off a bye week and were facing UTEP who was playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks.  On top of that, 3 of UTEP’s previous 4 opponents were ranked among the worst college teams in the country and the Miners lost one of those games and won two which were both down to the wire.  Despite our win with LT, we were unimpressed to say the least.  In the 10 point win the Bulldogs were outgained by 120 yards and allowed over 500 yards to a UTEP offense that came into the game ranked 92nd in total offense.  Even worse, the allowed the Miners to control the line of scrimmage with UTEP putting up 181 yards rushing on 4.8 YPC compared to 114 yards on 3.5 YPC for Tech.  UTEP came into the game ranked 87th averaging only 3.7 YPC.  Those defensive numbers for LT will be a huge problem in this game.  That’s because North Texas is among the best rushing teams in the nation averaging 217 YPG (16th nationally) on 4.6 YPC.  The Mean Green should have a field day on the ground vs a Tech defense allowing 220 YPG on 5.5 YPC.  Those poor rush defense numbers come vs teams ranked 37th, 50th, 67th, and 87th in rushing offense.  Subtract their game vs FCS Stephen F Austin and the Bulldogs have been outgained in every game.  They are -80 YPG on the season and they’ve been outyarded on the ground by an average of 120 YPG.  Not only can UNT run the ball very well, they have an experienced 3 year starter at QB, Austin Aune, that has thrown for nearly 6,000 career yards and 38 TD’s.  This offense will be a big problem for a LT defense that ranks 119th nationally in YPG allowed and 123rd in PPG allowed at 37.2.  The Mean Green are rested and they’ve been waiting for this game after losing 24-17 @ La Tech last season despite outgaining the Bulldogs in that game and crushing them on the ground 241 to 79.  We’ll lay it with North Texas in this one. 

#117 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kent +8 over Toledo, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We always take a strong look at underdogs that have a potent offense and that’s what we have here. And we’re getting more than a TD which is a bonus. Kent’s overall offensive numbers aren’t spectacular this season, however much of that has to do with the schedule they’ve played. They’ve already faced Georgia, Oklahoma, and Washington this season and their strength of schedule is ranked 26th nationally. Compare that to Toledo’s SOS which is 135th and we feel Kent is more prepared for this match up. When stepping away from those high level Power 5 teams, the Golden Flashes offensive numbers are very good averaging 39 PPG and 570 YPG in their other 3 contests. In their 2 games vs MAC opponents the last 2 weeks, Kent has put up almost 1,200 yards! They are coming off a close loss last week as a 5 point favorite @ Miami OH. Toledo is stepping into this game off a very deceiving 52-32 win over Northern Illinois last week. The Rockets were outgained by 75 yards in that win, they had 2 pick 6’s, they were +4 in turnovers, and NIU played without their starting QB. Toledo’s offensive numbers aren’t great (ranked 78th in total offense) despite playing a very easy schedule as we mentioned. Defensively they have some decent stats but besides Ohio State, who scored 77 points and put up almost 800 yards on this Rocket defense, they’ve faced a very poor offensive schedule with their other opponents ranked 68th, 71st, 125th, and 129th in total offense. Their 3 FBS wins this season have come against NIU, CMU, UMass who are all 1-5 SU on the season for a combined record of 3-15. We like Kent to give Toledo all they can handle here and we expect them to have a shot at the outright win. Take the points.

#77 ASA PLAY ON 7* Vancouver Canucks +1.5 goals -155 on the Puck Line over Edmonton Oilers, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET - The Canucks wrapped up last season on a 19-9-6 run.  Of those 15 losses, 9 were by just a 1-goal margin.  Vancouver was a much better team once they made the coaching change and only 6 of their final 34 games resulted in a loss by 2 or more goals.  That means high odds on a winning result here and we like the value of the +1.5 goals here at a fair price.  As strong as Edmonton is in terms of offensive firepower, they continue to be a club that struggles with defense and goal-tending.  The Oilers last 20 regular season games last season featured only 8 wins by more than a 1 goal margin.  We think we’re getting some nice value laying a reasonable -155 price to have the puck line in this one with the added insurance of +1.5 goals for the Canucks.

#924 ASA TOP PLAY ON LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over San Diego Padres, Tuesday at 9:35 PM ET - LA dominated this series during the regular season winning 14 of the 19 meetings and 13 of those wins came by at least 2 runs. In their 19 meetings this season, the Dodgers had a +63 run differential which equates to +3.3 runs per game and that includes their 5 losses. Pretty dominant to say the least. LA should have a big advantage on the mound here as they will send either Kershaw or Urias to start game 1. Both were outstanding vs San Diego this season with Kershaw sporting a 0.75 ERA in 2 starts vs the Padres and Urias came in with a 1.50 ERA in 4 starts. Clevinger will be the starter for San Diego after they used their top 3 starters over the weekend in NY. He has not pitched since October 1st and is coming off an illness so he may not be at 100%. Clevinger was poor on the road this year as well with a 5.46 ERA and a WHIP of 1.35. He faced LA 3 times this season and was rocked for 14 ER’s in just 13 innings of work. The host has had the better bullpen all season long (2nd in ERA and 1st in WHIP) and they have all arms available for this one. They are rested and ready while Padres are off emotional 3 game east coast series vs Mets. We’re getting this rested LA team with their top starter on the mound (either Urias or Kershaw) vs the Padres 4th starter. We think we’re getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at even money with the Dodgers.

#465 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Dolphins -3 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Fins will be starting Teddy Bridgewater at QB in this one and that’s not a bad thing. He’s a veteran and really could be a starter in this league and his ATS record under center is spectacular at 42-21 ATS. Bridgewater stepped in vs Cincinnati after Tagovailoa was injured in their most recent game and he threw for 193 yards and a TD. The Jets have a 2-2 record but could easily be 0-4 as they rallied from 13 points down in the FINAL 2 MINUTES vs Cleveland for the 1 point win and rallied from 10 points down in the final 8:00 minutes to beat a bad Pittsburgh team last week. The Fins have played the tougher schedule and they are +0.3 YPPG differential compared to -0.3 YPP differential for the Jets who have played the easier slate. Miami won by 7 in both meetings last season and outgained the Jets by 778 to 608 in the 2 meetings combined. We’ve upgraded Miami this year while the NYJ power rating remains about the same. The Fins actually have the best record in the NFL since week 9 of last season with an 11-2 SU record tied with the Chiefs. The Jets are 2-2 but could easily be 0-4 as they scored 2 TD’s in the final 7 minutes last week to come from behind and squeak by a bad Pittsburgh team and they scored 2 TD’s in the final 2 minutes @ Cleveland to win by 1. Two weeks ago the Jets were +6.5 at home vs Cincy and lost by 12 and now only +3 vs Miami who we have rated as dead even vs the Bengals on a neutral field? Bad line and we like Miami, with extra time to prepare after losing their first game of the season last Thursday at Cincinnati, to win by more than a FG here.

#356 ASA TOP PLAY ON Iowa State +1.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - ISU is in must win mode at home here after losing back to back games vs Baylor (lost by 7) and Kansas (lost by 3). In their 14-11 loss @ KU last week the Cyclones outgained Jayhawks by 100+ yards but missed 3 of their 4 FG’s in a game they should have won. Make note the ISU kicker was perfect on the season coming into the game so it’s not as if that has been a problem in the past. KSU is off back to back huge wins vs Oklahoma and Texas Tech but were outgained in both. The game prior to that the Wildcats lost at home to Tulane and the yardage was dead even. The Cats are a bit fortunate to be 4-1 as they’ve only outgained their 5 opponents by an average of 33 YPG but they are already +9 turnovers this season. KSU averages just 150 YPG passing (115th nationally) and they rely heavily on their running game to move the offense. That might be tough here as they are facing an Iowa State defense that 8th in the country in total defense (255 YPG allowed) and 7th in rush defense giving up just 83 YPG. Last week the ISU defense faced a Kansas offense that ranked 13th in rushing (228 YPG) to barely 100 yards on 3.6 YPC. The Cyclones have outgained their opponents this year by +126 YPG and their defense is allowing only 4.4 YPP which is a full 1 YPP better than KSU’s stop unit. The Clones were favored by 6.5 at Kansas State last year (and won) and this year they are home underdogs. Too much of a line swing in our opinion and with games vs Texas and Oklahoma on deck, this is a huge home game for Iowa State. We have this game powered to dead even so we like the value with the host.

#408 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech -2.5 over UTEP, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for UTEP playing their 2nd straight road game (and 3rd in 4 weeks) after winning a tight one at Charlotte last week. The Miners were outgained in that 41-35 win @ Charlotte but had 2 defensive TD’s including a 100 yard fumble return which was a 14 point swing in a tight game. UTEP is 3-1 over their last 4 games but their opponents have been weak as they faced New Mexico (lost by 17), NM State (won by 7) and Charlotte (won by 6) during that stretch, 3 teams we have rated 122, 124, and 128 nationally (out of 131 teams). The Miners could have easily lost all 3 of those games vs very poor opponents. La Tech is in a nice spot here coming off a bye week. They’ve lost their last 2 games but played strong competition losing to Clemson (undefeated) and South Alabama, whose only loss was by 1 point @ UCLA. La Tech has also already played Missouri this year and they have a strength of schedule rated 20th nationally compared to UTEP which ranks 116th in that category. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, the Bulldogs have the better offensive numbers with more YPG and they average a full TD more per game than UTEP. The Miners have the better defensive numbers but they’ve faced 4 offenses this year ranked 129th, 125th, 112th, and 85th. The Bulldogs were favored on the road in this meeting by 6.5 points last year and they were upset by UTEP and now we get them at a much cheaper price, at home, and in a very good situational spot.

#382 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9.5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tech steps in with a 3-2 record but they’ve outgained every opponent this year but the Red Raiders were -6 turnovers in their 2 losses to NC State and Kansas State. In their 9 point loss @ KSU last week the Raiders had a shot but had 4 turnovers, missed a FG, and were shut out on downs once. In the loss, Tech was +11 first downs, +14 yards, and +5 minutes TOP. They catch OSU in a great letdown spot here. The Cowboys have played one of the weaker schedules in power 5 (90th SOS) and they’ve been waiting and preparing for their rematch vs Baylor last week. That’s because the Bears topped OSU in the Big 12 Championship game last year. They played that game last week vs Baylor and picked up their revenge win but they were outgained by the Bears 457 to 379. It was the first legit opponent the Cowboys have faced this season after wins over Central Michigan, Arkansas Pine Bluff, and an Arizona State program in upheaval. Despite playing the much tougher schedule (8th SOS nationally) Texas Tech is +122 YPG compared to OSU who is +82 YPG despite playing an easy slate. Tech ranks higher nationally in both total offense AND total defense and if they can eliminate the turnovers, we think they can win this game outright. The Raiders have been waiting for this one after getting embarrassed 23-0 at home vs OSU last year when the Cowboys had one of the top defensive units in the nation. Not so much this year as the Cowboys lost 63% of their defensive production (20th most nationally) and their defensive coordinator is now at Ohio State. Tech is sitting in a great spot here and we’ll call this one down to the wire. Take the generous points.

#421 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SMU +3 over Central Florida, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Mustangs are desperate for a win coming in off back to back losses to strong opponents Maryland & TCU. SMU lost by a single score to each and outgained Maryland on the road and played almost dead even yardage wise to TCU, the same Horned Frog team that destroyed Oklahoma last week. In UCF’s most recent game they were completely outplayed by a below average Georgia Tech team but somehow pulled out the win. The Yellow Jackets outgained UCF by 119 yards but allowed the Knights to block a punt for a TD. In UCF’s only other game vs a legit opponent, they were outgained and beaten at home by Louisville. So the Knights were outplayed by both of their legit opponents and both of those teams (GT & Louisville) currently have losing records. SMU’s offense has been outstanding averaging over 500 YPG and 38.5 PPG. They’re defensive numbers aren’t great when compared to the UCF defense, however they’ve played the MUCH tougher schedule. The Mustang defense has already played 3 offenses ranked inside the top 23 nationally including TCU who ranks 2nd in the country in total offense. When these two met last season, SMU was favored by 7 at home and outgained the Knights by 300 yards and won the game 55-28. Now they are getting a FG in this game. Compare that to SMU’s games vs TCU and Maryland in which they were +2.5 in each telling us this line is off. This game was scheduled for last Saturday but had to be rescheduled due to the affects of Hurricane Ian in the Orlando area. UCF has been dealing with the distractions that go along with this which isn’t ideal. SMU gets the cover on Wednesday.

#280 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco 49ers -1 over LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Despite losing in the Playoff to the Rams last year 20-17, the Niners have dominated this series winning 6 straight prior to that loss. Even though they’ve won 6 of the last 7, San Francisco is in revenge mode here with the Rams eliminating them from the post season last season and then going on to win the Super Bowl. In the 2 regular season games last season, the Niners won 31-10 and home and 27-24 in LA outgaining the Rams 784 to 534 combined in those 2 meetings. The Rams are playing their 2nd straight road game after topping Arizona 20-12 last week. LA has not been impressive this year getting outgained by 40 YPG on the season. QB Stafford does not look healthy (bad elbow) and has just 4 TD’s with 5 picks on the season along with his lowest QBR since the 2014 season. The Rams are barely averaging 300 YPG (ranking 26th in the NFL) despite playing Arizona & Atlanta in 2 of their games who rank 22nd and 23rd in total defense. Now they face a SF defense that has been great giving up just 3.9 YPPG (1st) and 227 YPG (2nd). The Niners have allowed just 37 points in 3 games and they’ve outgained all 3 opponents. They are 4th in the NFL in YPP differential at +1.2 while LA sits at 15th at +0.1. Despite that SF is just 1-2 SU this season losing @ Chicago in the opener in a monsoon despite outgaining the Bears by +127 yards. Last week the played very poorly on offense vs Denver in an 11-10 loss with the Broncos scoring late to get the win. This is a huge game for the Niners as they can’t afford to drop to 1-3. Lay the small number.

#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +1 versus Carolina Panthers 4 PM ET - Both 1-2 but the Strength of Schedule for both teams is drastically different. Arizona has played the 4th toughest schedule, Carolina the 30th. Carolina has been outgained in 2 of 3 games and barely outgained the Giants by +10-yards. Arizona has outgained 2 of 3 opponents this season and has put up 353 YPG despite facing two top tier defenses of the Chiefs and Rams. The Panther offense has struggled. They rank 30th in total YPG, 31st in passing and 14th in rushing. Carolina ONLY has 5 offensive TD’s this season. Against the Saints last week they managed just 293 total yards of offense, 12 first downs and 5.0YPPL. The Panthers defense is overvalued. Last week they allowed a Saints offense that has struggled this season to gain 426 total yards and 6.7YPPL. Carolina forced 3 TO’s though, one for a score. The Cardinals offense has gotten off to slow starts in games, getting outscored 13-56 in first halves this season. Cards QB Murray has played well completing 63.8% of his passes with 784 total yards, 3 TD’s to just 2 INT’s but they have just 1 explosive play on the season of 30+ yards. The Cardinals defense is 11th in stopping the run this season which is the Panthers strength. Their Pass Defense is 30th in the NFL but now they face Baker Mayfield (32ND worst QBR). The Panthers have owned the Cardinals in recent years with 6 straight wins, including last year’s 34-10 win. Last season the Cardinals were 7-point HOME favorites last year with Colt McCoy starting under center. Arizona is 19-6-1 ATS their last 27 regular season games as a ROAD DOG with 7 straight outright wins. Carolina is 3-10 ATS their last 13 as a favorite dating back to 2020.

#137 ASA PLAY ON 8* Liberty -3.5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 6 PM ET - There may be some remnants of Hurricane Ian for this game with possible wind and rain. That heavily favors the team that can run the ball better and that is absolutely Liberty in this one. The Flames average just under 200 YPG rushing and they’ll be facing an ODU defense that ranks 112th nationally at stopping the run allowing 188 YPG. On the other side of the ball, the Monarchs can’t run at all and have consistently been beaten in the trenches this year. They have not topped 2.5 YPC in any game this season and they are averaging only 63 YPG rushing on 25 carries. They have been outrushed by a whopping 500 yards in 4 games this season and their YPC differential is -1.7. ODU steps into this game with a 2-2 record but they could easily be 0-4. Their two wins both came by 3 points and they had a defensive TD in each of those 2 wins. The ODU offense just isn’t very good. They rank 110th or lower in PPG, total YPG, and rushing YPG. While passing is the key to their offense, they only rank 76th in passing YPG. Liberty’s pass defense has been solid allowing 211 YPG and just 6.8 yards per attempt and that includes a game vs one of the top offenses in the nation, Wake Forest. Speaking of that game, the Flames outplayed Wake on the road in that game, outgaining the Demon Deacons by almost 100 yards, but lost by a single point. This number is a bit lower than it should be because Liberty laid an egg last week beating a bad Akron team by just 9 points. First of all it was a letdown spot after they nearly beat WF a week earlier and Liberty played their 3rd string QB last week due to injuries. The starting QB Salter is back this week along with 2 starting offensive linemen who sat out vs Akron. The 3-1 Flames have outgained every opponent they’ve faced this season while ODU has been outgained by every opponent they’ve faced. When these teams faced off last year Liberty was favored by 26 points and won the game 45-17. Now they are laying only around a FG this season? This should be a mismatch in the trenches and we’ll side with Liberty to win by more than a FG in this game.

#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON Mississippi State -3.5 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Well we went against A&M last week and should have won and we’re coming back this week and fading this overrated team. Last Saturday they were favored by 2 vs Arkansas and won 23-21 pushing the spread. The fact is, Arkansas completely outplayed the Aggies with a total yardage edge of 415 to 343 and a 244 to 192 advantage on the ground. One play changed the entire game for the underdog Razors. With Arkansas up 14-7 very late in 2nd quarter and driving for a score inside the A&M 5 yard line. Razor QB fumbles and it’s returned 97 yards for a TD for a 14 point swing. Arkansas also missed a 42 yard FG at the end that would have won the game. Arkansas was the correct side in that game. In the 2 weeks prior A&M lost at home to App State and then beat Miami by 8 but the Aggies were outgained by 130+ yards in that game and beaten in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining just 3.9 YPC. That’s the same App State team that needed a hail mary 2 weeks ago to beat Troy and then lost at home to James Madison last week (we were on JMU). That’s also the same Miami team that lost by 14 points at home vs Middle Tenn State last Saturday. A&M could easily be sitting with a 1-3 record right now. This will be their first true road game of the season and they have Alabama on deck so not an ideal situation. The Aggie offense has been bad to say the least. If we take out their defensive and special teams TD’s this year, the actual offense has scored only 5 touchdowns in 3 games (minus their FCS game vs Sam Houston). The Aggies have been outgained in each of their 3 FBS games by a total of more than 300 yards. They’ve already switched QB’s from King to Johnson and neither has been good. This offense currently ranks outside the top 100 in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and PPG. They face a Mississippi State team that is very dangerous offensively. The Bulldogs returned 71% of their offensive production from a team that averaged 29 PPG last year including QB Rogers who threw for almost 5000 yards last year and 36 TD’s. This year he’s already thrown for 1400 yards and 16 TD’s and the Bulldogs are averaging 37 PPG. The MSU defense was solid last season allowing 345 YPG and they returned over 80% of their production on that side of the ball (5th most nationally). This season they are allowing 319 YPG and we don’t see A&M having much success on offense. Last year MSU went into Texas A&M and won the game 26-22 outgaining the Aggies 438 to 297. We don’t see anything changing this year. Mississippi State gets the win and cover at home.

#918 ASA PLAY ON 8* Buffalo -2.5 vs. Miami OH, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Buffalo was a dark-horse team of ours to win the MAC this season while Miami was one of the favorites. Both returned a ton of talent which was a big reason why both had Conference Title aspirations. Miami is without their starting QB Gabbert who was injured in the season opener against Kentucky. Aveon Smith has taken over as the starter and has not impressed anyone with his numbers. Smith is 32 of 66 for a total of 346 yards or 5.0-Yards Per Completion. He has just 6 TDs to 2 INT’s. This makes the Redhawks one-dimensional offensively. The onus will be on Buffalo’s defense to stop the running game of Miami. The Bulls haven’t been great in that defensive category allowing 169-Rushing Yards Per game which is 87th in the nation. In the Bulls defense, they’ve played three teams this season that all rank top 53 in rushing yards per game offensively. Miami (OH) is 89th in rushing offense at 131YPG. Buffalo’s passing attack which averages 260-Passing Yards Per game can exploit a Redhawk defense which ranks 106th in the nation allowing 270PYPG. Miami is coming off a big upset win over a Big Ten team in Northwestern, despite getting outgained by -86-yards. Last year Miami embarrassed Buffalo 45-18 and we expect payback here. The home team has covered 5 straight in the series and the favorite is 11-2-1 ATS the last fourteen meetings. Lay it!

#105 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulane +2.5 over Houston, Friday at 7 PM ET - Tulane is coming off a tough loss, a game the absolutely should have won. They played host to a much improved Southern Miss team and despite losing 27-24 they outgained the Golden Eagles by 200 yards! The Green Wave were +13 first downs, +145 yards rushing, and +13 minute time of possession. Tulane missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs 3 times in USM territory. They entered the game off a huge road win @ Kansas State, which looks like a great win now after KSU just beat Oklahoma last week. It was their first loss and non cover of the season and they are +25 points vs the spread in their 4 games this year (undervalued). Houston, on the other hand, is just 1-3 ATS and their only spread win was by a half point. The Cougars are now -38 points vs the spread this season (overvalued). Houston struggled last week at home to beat a bad Rice team 34-27. The yardage was dead even and it took a Cougar defensive score in the final minutes to pull out the 7 point win (they were favored by 17). Houston is -50 YPG and dead even YPP differential after 4 games. Tulane is +200 YPG and +2.3 YPP through 4 games. The dog is coming off a shocking loss and the better team here. They’ll be ready and we like Tulane.

#102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over Miami Dolphins, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The team with a 1-2 record is favored by a FG over the team with a perfect 3-0 record? This is a very solid spot for the Bengals at home. They are in somewhat of a must win here as they are 1-2 and 3 of their last 4 games are away from home. They can’t afford to lose this one. They catch Miami in a terrible spot coming off a gigantic home won over division rival Buffalo. Not only that, the Fins defense has to be gassed here on a short week after facing a whopping 90 offensive snaps from Buffalo’s offense. It was 100 degrees on the field and the Miami defenders were dropping like flies with heat exhaustion, cramping, etc… This will be a very tough week for the Miami defense. On top of that, prior to their huge 21-19 win over Buffalo, the Dolphins had to make a huge rally on the road @ Baltimore scoring 28 points in the final 12:00 minutes of the game to squeak by the Ravens 42-38. Back to back physically and emotionally taxing games and now a short week on the road for Miami. Despite their win Miami was outgained 497 to 212 last week vs the Bills so they were quite fortunate to say the least. After losing 2 tight games to start the season vs Pittsburgh (Bengals had 5 turnovers) and @ Dallas (Bengals just played poorly), they picked up some momentum last week handling the Jets on the road 27-12. QB Burrow finally looked like a top tier signal caller with 275 yards passing and 3 TD’s along with by far his highest QBR of the season. Miami QB Tagovailoa is dealing with a back issue that may cause some problems on a short week. Lay it with Cincinnati.

#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Commanders +6.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Look ahead here was Philly -3 and it’s jumped to 6.5 based on 1 data point for each team. Everyone watched Philadelphia roll over Minnesota on Monday night 24-7 and Washington lose at up and coming Detroit, thus the line move. The Vikings definitely had their chances in the 2nd half vs the Eagles throwing 2 picks in the endzone and another at the Philly 20 yard line. They are also on the road off short week with their Monday night win which is not ideal. IN their only road game thus far Philly nearly lost @ Detroit but pulled out a 38-35 win. While the Eagles offense has looked good averaging 31 PPG, let’s not forget Washington is averaging 28.3 PPG after 2 games and ranks 6th in total offense. Their 28-22 win over Jacksonville in week 1 looks like a solid win after the Jags rolled 24-0 over the Colts in week 2. Last year when these 2 faced off here in Washington, the Eagles were favored by 6.5 as well and won 20-16. The Commanders led that game at half 16-7 and continued to lead in the 4th quarter before losing close. Washington had Heinicke at QB for that game and the yardage was nearly dead even. Now with Wentz at QB we feel they have a shot to win this game outright and they’re getting nearly a full TD. While people bag on Wentz, he’s a big upgrade for Washington. He’s already thrown for 650 yards and 7 TD’s after throwing 27 TD’s and just 7 picks last year. The Eagles 3-7 ATS as favorite since start of 2020 season and we like the division underdog in a solid situational spot here.

#403 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2 over Texas A&M, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played at the Cowboys home stadium on Saturday. Wrong team favored here according to our power ratings. We’ve been unimpressed with A&M this season and feel they are drastically overvalued right now. We were on them in a perfect spot a few weeks ago when they played host to App State who was coming off 63-61 loss to UNC a week earlier. The Heels rolled up huge numbers vs the App State defense yet A&M at home was only able to score 14 points on 186 total yards. That speaks volumes to how this Aggie offense is struggling right now. They followed that loss up last week with a 17-9 win over Miami FL in which TAMU had only 265 total yards. Thus, in their 2 games since beating Sam Houston State to open the season, the Aggies have scored 31 total points on just 451 total yards. They’ve been outgained by a combined 257 total yards in those 2 games. They’ve allowed 49 first downs in those 2 games while accumulating just 25 first downs offensively. A&M has already made a switch at QB from Haynes to Johnson, but the stats haven’t been great for either. Johnson started last week and completed just 50% of his passes in a game A&M was also outplayed in the trenches allowing 4.9 YPC while gaining only 3.9 YPC on offense. It was a game the Canes should have won and we’re getting some value here because the Aggies won on the scoreboard. While their offense is struggling, the Razorbacks are not. Last week they struggled a bit in a letdown spot with Missouri State but still put up big numbers. Despite their -3 turnover ratio for the game, the Razors won and put up 600 total yards. They’ve now rolled up 447, 462, and 600 yards in their 3 games to go along with 113 total points (37.6 PPG). Two of those games were vs Cincinnati and South Carolina so we’re not talking about cupcake city here. Arkansas will control the trenches as they’ve outgained their opponents by 500+ yards on the ground this season while the Aggies have been outgained in the run game by 140 yards. Last year when these 2 met A&M was a 4 point favorite and Arkansas won the game by 10 points outgaining the Aggies by 170 total yards. We don’t see anything changing here. TAMU is talented but still quite young and we like Arkansas, who has a much better QB situation with Jefferson (770 yards passing / 170 yards rushing / 9 TD’s this year) to win again.

#357 ASA PLAY ON 8* James Madison +7 over Appalachian State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Just a terrible spot for App State here. They are now off 3 hugely emotional games to start the season and face a team that is in their first year of making the move from FCS to FBS. ASU lost 63-61 in their season opener vs big boy in-stater UNC missing a 2 point conversion that would have sent it to OT. Then they traveled to Texas A&M and pulled a huge upset winning in College Station 17-14. A&M has shown us they are not nearly as good as people thought (including us). Last week ESPN college game day was in Boone, NC for the App State vs Troy game so another game to get up for. On top of that, ASU scored on a hail mary on the final play of the game winning 32-28 in their first conference game. James Madison had last week off after winning their first 2 games by a combined score of 107-14! They outgained Middle Tennessee State and Norfolk State by a combined almost 700 yards. Their 44-7 win over MTSU looks more impressive after the Blue Raiders went on to win their next 2 games by 15 and 43 points covering those games by a combined 52 points. JMU was one of the top few programs in FCS over the last 5 or so seasons so their success thus far is not surprising. The Dukes have been very balanced offensively with more than 200 yards both passing and rushing in each of their first 2 games. JMU made it to the FCS Final 4 or National Championship game in 5 of the last 6 seasons. Their overall record during that stretch was 70-11. This is a great program that will come more than ready to play in their first ever Sun Belt Conference game vs a team that we would almost guarantee is in for a letdown this week. We think they have a great shot at the outright win and getting a TD is a very nice cushion.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -4 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers offense has been abysmal the first 2 weeks of the season. They rank 30th in YPG & YPP and they’ve been outgained by 300 yards in their 2 games and they’ve scored just 2 offensive TD’s this season. They pulled out a tight win over Cincinnati in OT despite the Bengals turning the ball over 5 times including a pick 6. Even with the +5 turnover mark in that game Pittsburgh had to go to OT in that one. Last week they were topped by New England 17-14 but outgained by a full 1.5 YPP. The Pats missed a FG, punted from the Pitt 40 yard line and ended the game inside the Steeler 20 yard line. New England, after averaging just 5 YPP vs Miami in week 1, had some solid success offensively last week averaging 5.7 YPP. Cleveland is looking for a bounce back after blowing a home lead and losing to the Jets 31-30. The Browns were up 30-17 with under 2:00 minutes remaining in last week’s game and allowed NYJ to scored 2 late TD’s to pick up the win. Cleveland has outgained both of their first 2 opponents including on the ground where they are +255 yards through 2 contests. Pittsburgh has gained just 75 and 90 yards on the ground the first two weeks and they are -95 yards on the ground. That’ll play a huge factor here as we expect winds of 20+MPH for this game which means the rushing attack will be more important for each side. The Pitt defense is drastically different with TJ Watt out of the lineup and you could see that last week with 0 sacks vs the Pats. We feel the number gives us value as well. Cleveland was favored by -6.5 vs NYJ last week and now just -4.5 vs a Pittsburgh team that is no better than the Jets in our power ratings. Last year Cleveland was a 5.5 point favorite at home vs Pittsburgh and lost 15-10 and they pushed inside the Steeler 25 yard line on their final drive but were shut out on downs. We like Cleveland to cover this one vs a Steeler team we have tabbed as one of the worst in the NFL.

#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State +2.5 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Interesting line here. The 3-0 Chanticleers are favored by just 2.5 over the 0-3 Panthers? Looks too easy based on the records and we agree. Our power ratings have Georgia State favored here so we grab the value with the home dog rather than simply looking at the current records. The Panthers played 2 very tough opponents to open the season losing @ South Carolina and at home vs UNC. Last week they surprisingly lost 42-41 but had over 600 yards of total offense and outgained the 49ers by over 100 total yards. Charlotte’s starting QB returned after missing 2 games which helped along with a 52 yard fumble returned for a TD for the 49ers and a TD with 17 seconds left to win. Georgia State has outgained 2 of their 3 opponents and for the season by 60 yards which points to the fact they are MUCH better than their 0-3 record. Panthers return 77% of their offensive + defensive production (14th nationally) from a team that went 8-5 last season, won their bowl game by 31 points, and nearly upset Auburn on the road. Starting QB Grainger is back after throwing for 19 TD’s and just 4 picks last season to go along with a very potent ground attack. The Panthers have topped 200 yards rushing in each of their first 3 (averaging 231 YPG on the ground) including games vs SEC and ACC defenses. Coastal has played the much easier schedule with all 3 games at home thus far vs Army, Buffalo, and Gardner Webb. They were lucky to beat FCS Gardner Webb getting outgained by 140 yards. Last week CC was trailing Buffalo (now 0-3 SU record) entering the 4th quarter but picked up a fumble recovery for a TD which turned the game and led to a 12 point win. The 3 teams CC has beaten this year (all at home) have a 2-7 SU combined record. Now they go on the road for the first time vs a desperate team that absolutely has to have this win. Last year Coastal had a much better team than they have right now and this Georgia State team won that match up on the road 42-40. Take GSU as a home dog here.

#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* LA Dodgers -1.5 on Run Line (-145) over Arizona, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers split their doubleheader yesterday with the DBacks and Arizona’s win in the night cap was just their 4th win in 17 meetings vs LA this season. In those 13 losses vs the Dodgers, 9 of them came by at least 2 runs and we’ll call for another on Wednesday evening. Arizona will send Bumgarner to the mound and he has been struggling for much of the season but especially as of late. He’s allowing an average of 4.4 ER’s per game over his last 10 starts and his average innings pitched during that span is 5. He's had at least 5 runs scored on him in 7 of his last 9 starts and his ERA during that run is 7.82. That shouldn’t change tonight facing a Dodger line up that is averaging 6.4 RPG at home vs left handers this year. In their 2 games vs Bumgarner this season, LA has scored 8 runs in just 11 innings. The Dodgers Dustin May will get his 6th start since coming back from injury. In his previous 5 starts he’s allowed an average of just 2 ER’s per start and in his most recent start he didn’t allow a single run or a hit vs SF in his 5 innings of work. They have May on a pitch count again tonight but when he comes out the Dodgers bullpen ERA of 2.95 is 2nd best in the Majors and their WHIP of 1.06 ranks #1. May and the LA pitching staff should fare well tonight vs an Arizona line up that is hitting just .178 over their last 10 games and averaging 2.5 RPG. Even though they’ve wrapped up the NL West, the Dodgers still have a ton to play for as they still haven’t locked up the best record in the NL and they are chasing their all time best season of 106 wins (still need 4 more). They win at home by an average of more than 2 RPG and they should dominate tonight. Take LA -1.5 runs.

ASA top play on 10* #968 Baltimore Orioles -1.5 runs vs. Detroit Tigers, 7 PM ET - Baltimore is in desperation mode as they sit 4-games back in the Wild Card race with time running out on the regular season. The Tigers are the perfect opponent to cut into that deficit. Detroit is 55-91 on the season and have a season net run differential of minus -173 which ranks them 27th out of 30 teams. Baltimore will send Tyler Wells to the mound who is 7-6 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Tigers will counter with lefty Tyler Alexander who is 3-10 on the season with a 5.35 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He is 0-3 in his last four starts with an ERA over 10.00, allowing 28 total hits, 19 runs in 18.3 innings of work. What’s significant for our bet against him here is that the Tigers lost those four starts by an average of 4.25 runs per game. Detroit really struggles against right-handed starters this season hitting jut .213 as a team and scoring 3.07 runs/9 innings. We will lay the 1.5 runs in this one.

#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -10 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - While this line may seem high, it’s really not. Green Bay was favored by 11.5 at home last year and won by 15. Chicago played host to a San Francisco team with an inexperienced QB last week (Lance) and the Niners were laying 7 in that road game. The Bears won the game 19-10 but they were dominated on the stat sheet. San Fran outgained Chicago by 1.3 YPP and the Bears only put up 204 total yards with 50 coming on one play. The 49ers also completely controlled the line of scrimmage outrushing the Bears 4.7 YPC to 2.9 YPC. The terrible weather in that game really helped Chicago ugly up the game and hang around in the first half (down 7-0) when they had only 68 total yards at halftime. The Packers lost big in Minnesota but played better than the final score indicated. A couple of big pass drops on offense could have changed the entire game. GB won the line of scrimmage averaging 6.2 YPC but were only able to run the ball 18 times because they got behind 17-0 at half. As we mentioned SF was able to run the ball last week with success on Chicago which we expect GB to do but we also have Aaron Rodgers at the helm rather than Trey Lance. Rodgers has a 20-7 lifetime ATS record vs the Bears and GB has won each of the last 4 meetings by double digits. The Packers have also been huge money makers coming off a loss with a perfect 11-0 ATS record their last 11 games in that situation. This is a huge home game for Green Bay with Tampa on deck. That cannot afford to lose this one and we expect to see them at the top of their game here. We’ll lay the points.

#265 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Jets +6.5 over Cleveland Browns, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Don’t you find it the least bit interesting the line on this game is -6.5 and not -7? They are begging you to bet the Ravens here but we won’t bite. Despite the loss last week, the Jets actually outplayed the Ravens for most of that game. New York had 11 more first downs and were plus +106 total yards. The Jets defense was outstanding, holding the Ravens to just 274 total yards of offense or 5.37 yards per play. This same Ravens offense was 6th in the NFL a year ago averaging nearly 380YPG. The Browns are coming off a dramatic road win in Carolina against their former QB in Baker Mayfield. Cleveland needed a FG with .08 seconds left to get the win. The Browns leaned on their running game which pounded out 217-rushing yards but if the Jets play defense like they did in the opener that will be tough to duplicate. Browns QB Jacoby Brissett was just OK last Sunday with 147 yards passing so it’s not like Cleveland is going to shred the Jets defense via the passing attack. The Jets don’t have great ATS trends as an underdog but we can’t also ignore the Browns 0-5 ATS streak as a favorite. Grab the points here.

#272 ASA PLAY ON 8* New Orleans Saints +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Saints here. Tampa Bay is on the road for the 2nd straight week after a big win in Dallas. New Orleans needed a come-from-behind effort in Atlanta to win. Were the Saints looking ahead to this game? Surprisingly, Tampa won last week in Dallas with their rushing attack. The Bucs rushed for 152 yards last week, but will that work this weekend against a Saints defense that was 4th in rushing D a year ago allowing just 93.5RYPG. A big question for New Orleans is how well QB Winston can manage the offense. He played well in the opener with 269 passing yards, 3 TD’s on 23 of 34 attempts. Saints WR Michael Thomas also made an immediate impact with 2 TD’s in his first game back since injury. The biggest factor in this game is going to be pressuring the quarterback. Dallas got to Brady twice last week and you need to pressure Brady to have a shot at winning. New Orleans was 8th in sacks a year ago and should spend plenty of time in the Bucs backfield. Last year at home the Saints were +4 and won with backup QB Trevor Siemian. The Saints sacked Brady 3 times in that game and forced him into 2 interceptions. In the 2nd meeting the Saints won again and sacked Brady 4 times with another INT. Since Tom Brady joined the Bucs the Saints are 4-1 SU/ATS with a net differential of Plus + 54 total points. Take the home dog here.

#200 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah -21 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - This one could get ugly in our opinion. San Diego State has taken a huge step back from last year’s team that went 12-2 on the season. They have been very unimpressive in both of their games so far this season with an 0-2 ATS record (1-1 SU) failing to cover the spread by a combined 27 points. In their season opener they played host to Arizona, who we have power rated as the worst team in the Pac 12. It was a hugely important game as SDSU opened their brand new on campus stadium for that one. The Aztecs were dominated to the tune of 38-20 and they were outgained by 230 yards. Arizona followed that up by getting thrashed at home by Mississippi State last week. SDSU’s other game was a 38-7 win over Idaho State who ranks as a lower tier FCS team. The Aztecs had a special teams TD in that one and outgained a bad Idaho State team by “only” 150 yards. The reason we say that is because a week prior Idaho State was outgained by 300+ yards vs UNLV, far from a solid college program. After losing to a bad Pac 12 team by 18 points at home in their opener, San Diego State now they face the team we have power rated as the best in the Pac 12 and it’s on the road. It’s also a huge revenger for Utah after losing in OT last year at SDSU. The Utes have been waiting for this one and they are coming off a 73-7 win over Southern Utah last week after losing their opener by 3 points @ Florida. If Arizona can score 38 points on the Aztecs, we can’t imagine what this potent Utah offense will do. The Utes have over 1000 total yards in just 2 games including an impressive 446 @ Florida. San Diego State won’t keep up here. They can’t pass (just 170 yards passing in 2 games) and they won’t be able to run very successfully vs a solid Utah front that finished 26th nationally vs the run last year. The Utes won every home game last year by double digits by an average margin of +19 points so -21 vs a poor San Diego State team is more than doable. Utah runs away with this one and they’ve already shown they’ll pile it on if needed scoring 73 last week.

#542 ASA play on 8* UAB -12 vs. Georgia Southern, 3:30 PM ET - This is a classic scheduling situational bet with Georgia Southern coming off a huge upset win over Nebraska as a 23-point dog, while UAB is coming off an upset loss as a favorite last week to Liberty. The Blazers loss last week was largely due to 4 turnovers or a net TO differential of minus -3. UAB relies on a strong running game which was 43rd in the nation a year ago at 183 rushing yards per game and has amassed 241RYPG in 2022. GA Southern will have a hard time holding up in the trenches considering they have allowed 257 rushing yards per game this season after giving up 162RYPG last season. UAB will wear down the Eagles defense which just allowed Nebraska to rush for 257-yards. Georgia Southern relies on their passing attack but UAB was solid in that defensive category a year ago allowing 228.1PYPG which was 67th in the nation. GA Southern had the 110th worst net differential a year ago at -12.6PPG, -18.8PPG when playing away. UAB was 3-2 SU at home last season with losses to Liberty and Rice. The Blazers three wins came against UTEP, LA Tech and FAU and were all by 14 or more points. We like a 2 TD win in this one.

#125 ASA PLAY ON 8* Buffalo +14 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET - Buffalo is undervalued here with an 0-2 record on the season. We also feel CC is overvalued coming in at 2-0. The Bulls lost @ Maryland to open the season and then last week lost on a hail mary as time expired vs Holy Cross. While that may seem like a terrible loss, it really wasn’t as Holy Cross is one of the top FCS programs and Buffalo was only favored by 6.5 in that game. The Bulls had more yardage in the 37-31 loss but nearly 100 yards of penalties hurt them. Coastal also played an FCS team last week but one that isn’t nearly as strong as Holy Cross. They Chanticleers beat Gardner Webb (ranked 88th in FCS power ratings) 31-27 as a 33 point favorite. However, they were outgained in that game by a whopping 140 yards and if not for a 95 yard kickoff they would have lost the game. Coastal was much better a year ago compared to this season ranking 117th in returning production. Even with that, they struggled to beat this Buffalo team in 2021 squeaking out a 28-25 win with the yardage nearly even. CC QB McCall is back but he doesn’t have much experience around him. They are shorthanded on offense with their top returning RB Bennett out and starting WR Brown possibly out. It’s going to be very tough for Coastal to pull away and get enough margin in this game to cover. We’ll call this one a close game and take the points

#124 ASA PLAY ON 8* Nebraska +11 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Don’t be surprised if Nebraska gives OU all they can handle here. First off, we think the coaching change and the firing of Scott Frost will rally this team that is actually pretty talented. They seem to really like interim head coach Mickey Joseph and he changed things up in practice this week with more physicality and an up tempo more game like situation. We had last year’s OU team power rated higher than this year’s current team and Nebraska gave the Sooners all they could handle on the road last year. The Huskers lost the game 23-16 but played Oklahoma basically dead even in YPP and had a shot at the upset. This year OU, and their entirely new coaching staff, has played 2 home games vs UTEP (112th) and Akron (127th) both power rated near the bottom college football as you can see. Last week they led Akron just 7-3 at half before overpowering a very bad Zips team and winning big in the 2nd half. Those 2 opponents have a combined 1-4 SU record on the season (UTEP beat a bad NM State team 20-13) and have been outscored 177-69. Needless to say, Oklahoma takes a big step up in competition this week and Lincoln is not an easy place to play. Win or lose, the fans come out each Saturday and this one will be a huge home game vs their former Big 12 rival. Nebraska hasn’t had a ton of success as of late but they rarely get blown out. Their last 13 losses have all come by single digits including vs both Ohio State and Michigan last year. Going back further, 21 of their last 26 losses have come by less than 10 points. The Nebraska offense is very potent averaging nearly 500 YPG on 6.8 YPP. We expect them to keep up here and give the OU defense big problems. Too many points here we like the home dog.

#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals -1.5 Runs (-130) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - The Reds are in a free fall losing 6 straight games including a 4 game sweep at home at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates. In that series the Reds were outscored 23-8 and only collected 23 total hits for an average of less than 6 hits per game. St Louis is surging winning 33 of their last 45 games and they’ve built a 7 game lead in the NL Central over Milwaukee. The Cards are also chasing the Mets to try and earn a bye in the wild card round. Mikolas is on the mound and he has been fantastic at home this season with a 2.23 ERA allowing just 59 hits in 89 innings pitched. He’s coming off a poor outing, however that was on the road vs where his numbers are quite a bit higher, and he’s had an extra day off to rest up between starts. In his 1 start at home vs the Reds this season he pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 ER. Cincy is struggling at the plate right now and we expect them to have problems plating runs tonight. That shouldn’t be a problem for St Louis. They will be facing Chase Anderson who has pitched only 9 innings this season, but 2.1 of those innings have come vs the Cardinals. They faced him twice just 2 weeks ago and Anderson gave up 7 ER’s in only 2.1 innings. On the season he’s allowed 3 home runs in just 9 innings which is a potential big problem here vs the Cards who are averaging 1.3 HR’s per game and have hit the most round trippers in MLB since the All Star Break. Anderson is backed up by the worst bullpen in MLB (highest ERA and 2nd highest WHIP) so we don’t expect the offense to stop when he exits. Cincinnati is just 27-43 on the road this year and vs teams over .500 they have the 2nd fewest wins in the Majors with a record of 25-53. We like the host Cardinals to win this one by 2+ runs.

#482 ASA PLAY ON 8* Seattle +7 over Denver, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Denver QB Russell Wilson makes his way back to Seattle for his debut for the Broncos. While we expect Wilson to do very well in Denver, this is his first game under a brand new system and he didn’t take a snap in the preseason. It’s going to take some time for Denver, under new head coach Hackett, to gel on both sides of the ball. Hackett has never been a head coach prior to this season and both his offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator have never held those positions for any NFL team. Just a very inexperienced coaching staff and dangerous to lay a full TD on the road in the first game as they learn on the fly. Seattle will start Geno Smith at QB and he was 3-0 ATS last year when stepping in for an injured Wilson. The Seahawks did lose those 3 games SU, however Smith had them in position to win all 3. They lost by 3 on a late FG vs New Orleans, lost in OT vs Pittsburgh, and were within 6 points of Super Bowl Champion LA Rams with under 30 seconds remaining (lost by 9). He’s a veteran with 7,000 yards passing and if he can avoid the big mistakes, Seattle will have a shot to win this one at home (one of the top home fields in the NFL). Seattle is 63-23 SU their last 86 at home while Denver is 11-21 SU on the road since 2018. We realize those numbers are with Wilson at QB but the fact is Seattle is a tough place to play and Denver is not used to winning games on the road. Opening week Monday Night dogs have been big time money makers going 39-19-1 ATS since 1980. Too many unknowns for the Broncos to be laying a full TD on the road here. We’ll take Seattle and call for a close game.

ASA top play on 10* NY Mets -1.5 (-135) vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs are struggling to score runs with 39 scored in their last 12 games or 3.25 per game. The Mets are 5th in baseball in total runs scored on the season at 666 in 141 games. New York is putting up an average of 5.52 runs per 9/innings over the course of their last ten games. In the Mets last two games they outscored Miami 20-6. Chicago has been shutout twice in their last ten games and scored 3 or less in six games. Looking closer, in their last ten games the Mets are hitting .297 as a team versus right-handed pitchers and scoring 6.28 runs/9innings. The Cubs are hitting .239 as a team vs. righties in their last ten games scoring 3.68 runs/9 innings. NY will send Chris Bassett who is 13-7 SU on the season with a 3.24 ERA. In his last ten starts though Bassett has allowed 2.23 Earned Runs Per game while allowing just 5.46 hits. The Cubs will counter with young Javier Assad who is 0-1 in three starts with a 2.93 ERA. He was recently roughed up by the Reds in 5.1 innings when he allowed 4 earned runs on 5 hits. The Mets get a big home win in this game as they battle the Braves for the Division lead.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 PM ET - Tom Brady has some of the most impressive numbers of all time, but do you know who has a lifetime undefeated record? Father time! Brady is dealing with some off-field family distractions and is now 45-years old. He’s playing behind a rebuilt offensive line missing 3 starters and he doesn’t do well when pressured. Did you know the Cowboys had the 2nd best DVOA numbers last season behind only the Bills. The Cowboys pass defense was 2nd in the league in both Opponent Completion Percentage at 59.65% and Opponent Average Passer rating at 76.2. The Bucs can’t rely on their running game which was 26th in the league last year averaging 96.3 rushing yards per game. The Cowboys can lean on Elliott and the running game here with the 9th best rushing offense in the NFL a year ago at 122YPG. Dallas can use their passing attack to soften up a stout Tampa rush D as the Bucs were 24th in passing yards allowed per game at 245.3. The Cowboys were the 4th best passing offense in the NFL last season at 279.4PYPG. The Cowboys have been home underdogs 6 times since 2018 and they’ve covered every one of those games winning outright by an average of +13.7PPG. Grab the points.

ASA play on 8* New England Patriots +3.5 over Miami Dolphins, 1 PM ET - It seems most experts are writing off the Patriots with their coordinator changes but the man in charge, Bill Belichick, is still calling the shots. Belichick is at another level when he has time to prepare for an opponent. This season opener has added incentives considering it’s an AFC Easts showdown AND they lost to the Dolphins twice last season. Miami added some offensive weapons this season, the biggest of course is WR Hill from Kansas City. But the fact remains Tua Tagovailoa is a below average QB with the 18th worst QBR last season and a 16 TD to 10 INT ratio in 2021. In comparison rookie Mac Jones was 16th in QBR with 22 TDs/13 INTs which are solid considering it was his first year under center. New England owned the 9th most efficient offense compared to the Dolphins 24th ranked unit a year ago. The Patriots also had the advantage defensively with the 4th best DVOA numbers versus the Dolphins who were 10th. The points are very attractive here as Miami was 9-8 SU last year yet had an average Margin of Victory of minus -1.9PPG. New England had the 4th best average Margin of Victory a year ago at +7.2PPG. Last year on this field the Pats were favored by 6-points on this field in January so it’s obvious the over-reaction by the public and oddsmakers to have Miami favored by more than a FG here. In the two meetings last year the Pats outgained the Fish by 215 total yards yet lost both. Payback here!

#459 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Browns Pick over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We’re getting the much better team, in our opinion and power ratings, at +1 or pick-em here. We have the Browns rated as a 7 point favorite on a neutral field. The Browns are going with Jacoby Brissett at QB which is the only reason we can see why people are leaning Panthers here. To be honest, how much better is Baker Mayfield for Carolina? He’s been pretty average throughout his career and the Cleveland defense should have a leg up here knowing how to defend Mayfield. Beyond that, the Browns are superior at most of the other positions. Brissett has plenty of starting experience (37 career starts) and will operate behind one of the top 5 offensive lines in the NFL. He also has a plethora of weapons and RB, WR, and TE. Carolina, on the other hand, has one of the worst offensive lines in the league after ranking 28th last year in pass blocking efficiency and allowed 52 sacks which also ranked them 28th in the NFL. Mayfield, coming back from a bad shoulder last season, will be running for his life in this game facing a Cleveland defense that ranked in the top 10 last year in sacks per game and was overall one of the top stop units in the league allowing just 5 YPP (2nd in the NFL). The Browns had a +0.4 YPP differential last season and Carolina was -0.5 and not much has changed with the exception of the QB’s. We don’t think that’s a big enough edge for Carolina to be favored (or even pick-em) in this game. Dating back to the middle of the 2019 season, Carlina has been favored just 13 times and they’ve covered just 3 of those games. Head coach Matt Ruhle’s overall record since taking over in Carolina is just 10-23 SU. Cleveland wins on Sunday.

#461 ASA PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh Steelers +7 over Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Bengals are coming off a Super Bowl loss and we all know what that means. Teams that lose the Super Bowl are just 4-18 ATS in their season opener the next season (since 2000). The Bengals made a surprise run to the Super Bowl after finishing 10-7 on the season with a YPP differential of +0.1 which ranked them in the middle of the pack in the NFL. The beat the Steelers in both games last season rather convincingly, yet Pittsburgh outgained them in the 2 games combined. Prior to that the Steelers had won 14 of the previous 16 meetings. Pittsburgh’s defense was really banged up for much of last year and fell off drastically. They are healthy now, including TJ Watt, and we expect them to jump up and be much better on that side of the ball. When they were healthy in 2020, this defense ranked in the top 3 in YPG and YPP allowed. Trubisky will start at QB and while he’s not great by any means, he does have plenty of experience and it not a drop off from last year’s Big Ben who struggled. This is a huge division rivalry and week 1 division underdogs are 29-9 ATS the last 38 and week 1 underdogs of more than 6 points are 43-27 ATS since 2000. We expect a tight one and we’ll grab the points.

#370 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -12.5 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 6 PM ET - ODU is coming off one of their biggest upsets in school history knocking off Virginia Tech last week 20-17 despite getting outgained by 100 yards in the game. VT under a new HC and new schemes on both sides of the ball imploded with 5 turnovers in the game, which led directly to 17 of ODU’s 20 points. The Monarch offense was not good averaging just 3.6 YPP and getting beat at the line of scrimmage putting up only 2.5 YPC. They scored a TD with 30 seconds left in the game to pick up the win and the only TD the scored prior to that was a fumble return. ECU comes in with the opposite scenario. They outplayed one of the top teams in the country, NC State, yet lost 21-20. The Pirates outgained the Wolfpack, who many picked to be the top team in the ACC this season, but missed a late FG and had a punt blocked and returned for a TD. The Pirates held up well in the trenches averaging 4.3 YPC vs one of the top defensive lines in the nation. The ECU defense held the NC State offense to just 14 points on 344 total yards. That’s a Wolfpack offense that averaged 31 PPG and 414 YPG last season and brought back most of their key players including QB Leary. Offensively, the Pirates have a huge edge at QB in this one with Ahlers starting for the 5th straight season! He has thrown for more than 10,000 career yards with 90 total TD’s. ODU QB Wolff took over midway through last season and was fairly average. Last week, in their fortunate win, he completed only 40% of his passes and was under constant pressure (weak OLine for ODU). The Monarch fans stormed the field last week and now ODU must travel after that huge win. ECU will be out for blood here and we’ll call for any easy win.

#368 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iowa -3.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This line is an overreaction to Iowa’s 7-3 home win over South Dakota State. We get it the Hawkeye offense wasn’t good and starting QB Petras was awful. Let’s remember that SDSU is one of the top few programs in all of FCS and is rated higher than almost half of the FBS teams in the current Sagarin ratings. So they are a very solid team. While Petras was bad, he has lots of experience after starting for a Hawkeye team that went 10-4 last year. He will be better this week. They did have their chances last week pushing inside the SDSU 40 yard line 6 times but coming away with only 1 FG. The Iowa defense was outstanding as expected. They held the Jackrabbits to just 120 total yards on 2 YPP and SDSU made their way inside Iowa’s 40 yard line only once the entire game. Iowa State lost a TON of experience from last year’s team. They rank 128th in returning production (offense + defense) out of 131 teams. They lost their multi year QB starter (Purdy), their all time leading rusher (Hall), and 8 starters on defense including their entire secondary. The Cyclones rolled last week over a bad SE Missouri State team so very little can be taken from that game. That fact is, Iowa returns far more experience from last season when they beat ISU by 10 on the road. They have now beaten ISU 6 straight times by an average margin of +13 PPG. The Hawkeye coaches and players have heard all week how terrible they are after last week’s tight win and will come more than ready for this one. Iowa wins this one by more than a FG.

#354 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas A&M -18 over Appalachian State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a huge letdown spot for App State. They nearly pulled of a huge home win last week vs UNC but lost 63-61. It actually would not have been an upset as App State was favored by 3 in the game so a loss and a non cover. The Mountaineers were actually down by 20 points in that game entering the 4th quarter and scored a ridiculous 40 points in the final 15 minutes vs a Tar Heel defense that is obviously terrible this year. Now they face an A&M defense that is loaded with NFL talent and will be one of the top stop units in the nation this season. Let’s also keep in mind that App State’s opponent last week, UNC, struggled in week 1 vs a Florida A&M team (only up 11 entering the 4th) that barely had enough players to make the trip and considered cancelling the game in Chapel Hill. We did find out that ASU’s defense is nothing to write home about. They obviously allowed 63 points and the Heels rolled up an average of 8 YPP and 6.1 YPC. A&M’s offense is very good. They will put up big numbers vs this defense that is a bit beat up after that excruciating loss. The difference this week is, ASU’s offense will struggle vs a defense that is light year’s better than the one they faced last week. The Aggies will have big advantages in the trenches on both sides of the ball and they are the much deeper team which will be big in a game played in 90+ degree heat. A&M played host to Sam Houston State and pitched a shut out. They will be the more prepared team here as we’re positive they were “semi” getting ready to take on App State prior to last week’s game vs a team they knew they were going to blow out while the Mountaineers spent their entire off-season getting ready for in-state big boy North Carolina. This one smells like a blowout.

#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -17 over New Mexico, Friday at 9 PM ET - Boise will come out with a chip on their shoulder here after getting blitzed @ Oregon State last weekend 34-17. The Broncos first half offensively was a disaster due to turnovers. They had the ball 9 times in the first half and turned the ball over on 4 of those possessions and missed a short FG on another. In all they had 5 turnovers in the game which killed any offensive momentum they could gather. After the break BSU was much better scoring 17 points and punting just once. That loss prevents them from overlooking this game @ New Mexico as the Broncos cannot afford to go 0-2 to start the season. The Lobos won big last week vs FCS Maine but not much can be taken from that game vs a vastly inferior opponent. They dominated the stats, as we to be expected, but also ran 26 more offensive snaps on their game vs the Black Bears. Now New Mexico takes a huge step up this weekend while Boise takes a fairly significant step down. Last year these 2 met in Boise and the Broncos 37-0 win as a 27-point chalk and New Mexico barely cracked 100 yards of total offense. Boise has dominated this series winning 5 straight with 4 of those wins coming by at least 28 points. New Mexico is fairly inexperienced and their new transfer QB Kendrick didn’t play much at Kansas the last few years and will be operating behind an OLine that has just 22 returning starts ranking them 130th out of 131 teams. This Lobo team average just 12 PPG last year and will have big problems vs this experienced and very solid Boise defense. After winning their first 2 home games last year vs low level competition (Houston Baptist & NMSU) the Lobos lost their final 4 games by margins of 29, 29, 25, and 14 points. The much better team has all kinds of motivation this weekend and they will roll. Take Boise State.

#235 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -23 over Georgia Tech, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Ga Tech offense will do next to nothing in this game in our opinion. The Jackets put up only 8 points in their meeting last year and have averaged 11 PPG over the last 6 meetings. Clemson will have one of the top defensive teams in the nation and finished 3rd nationally last year allowing just 4.3 YPP. We believe there is a huge mismatch up front with Clemson’s defensive line vs Georgia Tech’s offensive front. The Tigers should have one of the top front 7 in the nation defensively while the Yellow Jackets OLine has only 37 career starts ranking them 116th in that category. GT is very inexperienced ranking 121st in returning production after winning just 3 games last year and getting outgained by 1.0 YPP on the season. While GT only put up 8 points in last year’s meeting, they covered because the Clemson offense took a huge step back and only scored 14 points in that game. Prior to last year the Tigers won the previous 3 meetings by 66, 38, and 28 points. We look for the Tiger offense to be much improved this season. QB Uiagalelei had on off season last year but he’s lost a bunch of weight and we’re hearing he's been very good in camp. He’ll be operating behind an top notch offensive line with 4 starters back with 6 of his top pass catchers back and his top RB Shipley. We look for a huge improvement on that side of the ball for the Tigers. GT head coach Collins is in desperation mode after a 9-25 SU recodrhis first 3 seasons and canned a number of assistants. Because of that the GT coaching staff has 8 new coaches which means a learning curve early in the season. After a disappointing season, the Tigers have a chip on their shoulders and they roll in this game.

#191 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Atlantic -4 over Ohio U, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - FAU looked really good in their opening 43-13 win vs Charlotte last weekend. Their offense was extremely balanced with 264 yards passing and 212 yards rushing outgaining Charlotte by more than 200 total yards. The score could have been worse as FAU led 33-7 very early in the 2nd half and decided to sit a number of key players getting them rested for this match up. Owl QB Perry, former starter for the Miami Hurricanes, looked very sharp operating behind an offensive line that has a combined 125 career starts which ranks them as the 9th most experienced line in college football. The offense was without starting RB Ford, who has over 2000 career yards and averages 6.3 YPC, but he is expected back this week. This offense should continue their hot start vs an Ohio defense that finished outside the top 100 in total defense and rush defense. Can the Bobcat offense keep up? We don’t think so. They return QB Rourke but he didn’t do much through the air last year with Ohio ranking 105th nationally in passing YPG. So that means the Bobcats will have to be very successful running the ball to stay in this game but they are facing a very good FAU DLine that returns everyone and allowed just 2.7 YPC last week vs Charlotte. Owl head coach Willie Taggart has coached at a very high level as he was the head man at Oregon & Florida State. He has brought in some high level transfers as well including 5 players who used to play for him at FSU. Ohio was 3-9 last season and they are just 1-7 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home underdog and they are just 5-9 SU at home since 2020. Florida Atlantic is the much more talented team here and we think they could very well be a surprise team in 2022. We’ll lay the points.

#201 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas State PK over Nevada, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - Nevada has a game under their belt but they looked terrible last week. Wasn’t surprising as they rank 131st (dead last) in offensive production returning and 130th in defensive production coming back. This team lost more experience and key players than any other in the country. While they beat New Mexico State, who is rated as one of the worst 5 teams in CFB, it wasn’t pretty. The final score was Nevada 23, NMSU 12 but the Wolfpack were outgained 303 to 257 and they were nearly outgained by 2.0 YPP (5.1 YPP for NMSU & 3.3 YPP for Nevada). New Mexico State turned the ball over 5 times in the game (0 for Nevada) yet still hung tight and were down by just 1 score with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Wolfpack new QB’s were unimpressive to say the least as Illingworth and Cox completed just 14 passes for 78 total yards and only 3.4 yards per attempt. Slow down their running game and the Nevada offense is in big trouble. Texas State was just 4-8 last season but they return a bunch on offense including 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen. They also get a big upgrade at QB with Arkansas State transfer Hatcher taking over. He was one of the top QB recruits nationally out of HS and committed to Alabama before transferring to Arkansas State where he threw for over 7,400 yards with 65 TD’s in his career. Nevada will look out of sorts the first part of this season as they have a new coaching staff at nearly every position (and head coach). We’ve lost some value here as the Bobcats were +3 in this game last week but still like Texas State to get the win as a pick'em.

#153 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois +2.5 over Indiana, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Illini got off to a great start last week with an easy 38-6 win over Wyoming. We realize the Cowboys aren’t going to be very good this year as they lost a ton of production on both sides of the ball, that being said we were still impressed with Illinois. New starting QB DeVito, transfer from Syracuse, gives the Illini their best starting QB in the last 5+ years. He threw for just under 200 yards, 2 TD’s and completed 73% of his passes. A very nice complement to what looks like a very solid running attack that put up 260 yards last week. New OC Tunney will make Illinois a much better offensive team this year. The defense ranked 31st nationally last season on YPP allowed and held Wyoming to 212 total yards and 4.1 YPP. 11 of Wyoming’s 13 offensive possessions last Saturday were 5 plays or fewer. The Indiana offense will struggle in this one after losing most of their production from last season as they rank 106th in percentage of yards returning. They will be breaking in a new QB after losing Penix who is now the starter for Washington. Either Tuttle or Bazelak (Mizzou transfer) will get the call here as they try and improve an offense that was flat out bad last year scoring 15 points or less in all but one Big 10 game. We think they’ll struggle again this year, especially early in the season. IU was just 2-10 last season and didn’t win a single conference game. They are one of the most inexperienced teams in the league after losing nearly 50% of their letterman (129th nationally). They were an underdog in every Big 10 game but one last year and that was vs Rutgers. The Hoosiers lost that game 38-3. They are now favored here over an Illinois team we feel is better on both sides of the ball. This current spread says these 2 teams would be around even on a neutral field. No way. Illinois is better and we’ll take the points.

ASA play on 8* #144 Pittsburgh -7.5 vs. West Virginia, Thursday 7 PM ET - We are backing the host in this “Backyard Brawl” between the Panthers and Mountaineers. An interesting dynamic for both teams will be quarterback play. The Panthers replace NFL’er Kenny Pickett with USC transfer Kedon Slovis. Slovis slides into a perfect offense that features its entire starting line and depth in the backfield. Slovis has 58 career TD’s and has completed 68.4% of his passes. West Virginia also gets a former USC quarterback this season in JT Daniels. Daniels now gets his opportunity after being injured and sitting behind Georgia QB Bennett last season. There are a few big advantages for Pitt in this game which will be the difference maker. The Panthers will have a very balanced offense (was 47th in efficiency a year ago) and can pound the ball with RB Abanikanda who rushed for 7 TD’s and 651 yards in just six games a year ago. West Virginia has 5 starters back on the O-line but they were last in the Big 12 in sacks allowed and tackles for a loss last season. Pitt is deep on defense with 8 returning starters and that unit led the ACC in rushing defense, was 2nd in the nation in sacks and 5th in tackles for a loss. The Panthers were 18th in defensive efficiency and gave up 24PPG. The Neers have just 3 starters back on that side of the football from a unit that was 32nd in DEFF. We expect a regression for the Mountaineers defense that gave up nearly 26PPG and 5.6 yards per play (76th). Last year at home the Panthers won by +16.4PPG and are 8-3 ATS their last eleven at home. West Virginia is 1-6 ATS their last seven as a road dog and they’ve lost those games by an average of -12.4PPG. We like Pittsburgh to get a double-digit win in this one.

#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Dodgers have taken 2 of the first 3 in this series and this one sets up very nicely for them to pick up a win. LA’s one loss in this series was a 2-1 setback vs one of MLB’s top pitchers, Sandy Alcantara. In the other 2 games, LA has outscored Miami 18-7 and they’ve outhit the Marlins 30 to 10 in those 2 games. Not surprising as the Dodgers have the highest batting average and most runs scored in MLB this season. Meanwhile, since the All Star Break the Miami offense has been brutal. They rank dead last in batting average at .212 and they’ve only scored 92 runs (2.5 RPG) which is by far the worst in the Majors over that time period (Washington has scored 110 runs which ranks them 29th post All Star). Now we have a team that can’t hit or score runs facing Dodger pitcher Gonsolin who has allowed the lowest batting average in MLB this year at .169! He has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 20 of his 23 starts this season and he’s backed by one of the top bullpens in baseball. Just a terrible match up for a light hitting Miami team. Miami starter Lopez has tailed off drastically in the 2nd half of the season and the LA hitters should continue to stay hot tonight. Lopez was very good prior to the break with an ERA of 2.66, however since then he has started 7 games with an ERA of 6.00. His only really solid start in the 2nd half of the season was vs Oakland who is one of the worst hitting teams in MLB. The bullpen has also fallen off as of late with an ERA of almost 6.00 their last 10 outings so LA should have a chance to put some really solid offensive numbers on the board. The way Miami’s offense is playing the Dodgers may not need many runs to cover the -1.5. Take LA on the run line tonight.

#956 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Phillies have dominated this series with a perfect 6-0 record this year including a 6-0 win last night. The average score of the 6 games this season is Phillies 5.8 – Pirates 2.7. Going back further, the Phillies have won 11 of the last 13 meetings in Philadelphia and 73% of those wins have come by 2+ runs. The Pirates have been heading downhill for a while now losing 7 straight and 24 of their last 31 games. They are just 18-41 this year vs teams with a winning record. Since the All Star Break they rank dead last in MLB in batting average at .214 and 29th in OPS. They are averaging just 2.1 RPG during their current 7 game losing streak. They face Philly starter Syndergaard who has been on a nice run allowing 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his last 8 starts (4 with Angels and 4 with Philadelphia). The Phillies have been playing great baseball winning 22 of their last 31 games. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in RPG, batting average, and OPS and since the All Star Break they have a batting average of .274 which is 3rd best in MLB during that stretch. They have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 7 games. They got a boost offensively as well with Bryce Harper rejoining the line up after a stint on the DL. The Phillies should have another big day offensively facing Pittsburgh starter Contreras who is 1-3 in last 4 starts with an ERA of 6.10. When he exits the Pittsburgh bullpen is among the worst in baseball ranking dead last in ER’s allowed and hits allowed this season. Phillies keep rolling with another easy win this afternoon.

#126 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 7 PM ET - New Chicago head coach Eberflus announced this week that they will play their starters for much of the first half. What happened after he announced that? The line went from Cleveland -4 up to -5 and -5.5. That’s because the Browns also plan on playing their starters for some of the first half including QB Brissett who has yet to play in the preseason. Browns head coach Stefanski said he wants to get Brissett some extended time with the starters so he is ready when the season rolls around in a few weeks. Our view on this game is if both sets of starters play extensively in the first half – big edge Cleveland. After the break, who has the advantage in the 2nd half? Cleveland as well as they are deeper and have the better QB rotation with Dobbs and Rosen. The Bears are 2-0 in the preseason but their offensive numbers have been poor averaging just 4.2 yards per play. That’ll be a problem in this game vs a deep Cleveland defense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year and in 2 preseason games they’ve allowed just 4.5 YPP. The Browns are 1-1 in the preseason but they’ve outgained both of their opponents by nearly a full 1.0 YPP. Their loss was here at home last week when the Eagles scored a TD late in the 4th quarter to pick up a 21-20 win. The Browns are at home again this week off that tough loss while Chicago is on the road for the 2nd straight game after traveling to Seattle last week. The Bears will really struggle offensively in this game and we like Cleveland to win by a TD+

#902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 6 PM ET - The Phillies have dominated this series with a perfect 5-0 record this year including a 7-4 win last night. The average score of the 5 games this season is Phillies 5.8 – Pirates 3.2. Going back further, the Phillies have won 10 of the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia and 70% of those wins have come by 2+ runs. The Pirates have been heading downhill for a while now losing 6 straight and 23 of their last 30 games. They are just 18-40 this year vs teams with a winning record. Since the All Star Break they rank dead last in MLB in batting average at .214 and 29th in OPS. They are averaging just 2.3 RPG during their current 6 game losing streak. They face Philly starter Gibson who has been on a nice run allowing 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his last 8 starts. The Phillies have been playing great baseball winning 21 of their last 30 games. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in RPG, batting average, and OPS and since the All Star Break they have a batting average of .274 which is 3rd best in MLB during that stretch. They have scored at least 7 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. They got a boost offensive as well with Bryce Harper rejoining the line up after a stint on the DL. The Phillies should have another big day offensively facing Pittsburgh starter Beede who was a reliever for much of the season. Since joining the starting rotation earlier this month, Beede is winless in 4 starts with an ERA of 7.50. When he exits the Pittsburgh bullpen is among the worst in baseball ranking dead last in ER’s allowed and hits allowed this season. Phillies keep rolling with another easy win tonight.

#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - These 2 teams met in Milwaukee last week and split a 4 game series. We were on the Dodgers -1.5 vs Brewers and starting pitcher Lauer in that series lost with LA winning 2-1. The Brewers scored a late run in the bottom of the 8th to cover that run line but had only 4 hits in the process. The struggles continue at the plate for Milwaukee and now with LA at home and left hander Urias on the mound, we like them on the run line again tonight. The Brewers are hitting just .201 in the month of August which is the worst mark in MLB. Versus left handers, they are hitting .217 on the year which ranks them 29th out of 30 teams. This is a bad match up for a struggling offense facing Urias who is pitching at the top of his game right now. He faced Milwaukee last week and did not allow a run in 5 innings of work with the Dodgers winning 4-0. Urias has allowed just 3 ER’s in his last 31 innings spanning 5 starts. His control has been spot on striking out 29 and walking just 4 in that 5 game stretch. Current Milwaukee hitters have had 87 lifetime plate appearances vs Urias and their batting average is just .192. The Dodgers bats are officially back on track after sweeping Miami here over the weekend outscoring the Marlins 19-4 in the process. Yesterday they faced arguably the top starting pitcher in MLB, Sandy Alcantara, and shelled him for 10 hits and 6 runs in just 3 innings. As we stated above, they faced Milwaukee pitcher Lauer last week and won 2-1. We expect them to have more offensive success here at home where they average 5.3 RPG with a average winning margin of +2 RPG. Lauer’s numbers on the road drop off quite a bit as well with an ERA of 4.48 and a WHIP of 1.30. LA is now 43-15 at home this season and of those 43 wins, 37 have come by at least 2 runs. The Brewers are struggling as we said with a record of just 7-11 this month. They are coming off a huge rivalry series in Chicago in which the Cubs took 2 of 3 games. Now after playing yesterday in Chicago, they travel to the west coast while the Dodgers remain at home after their 3 game series with Miami. This one sets up nicely for an easy LA win.