Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-21-23 | Tennessee +3.5 v. Purdue | 67-71 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Purdue at 8 pm et on Tuesday. In a game with a relatively low posted total where points should come at a premium, I'll gladly gran all the points I can get with the underdog Volunteers. Note that Tennessee checks in ranked number one in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Vols have the experienced guard play to ultimately wear out Matt Painter's Boilermakers, who are coming off a massive statement win over Gonzaga yesterday. Purdue didn't lose its first game last season until early January. I expect the Vols to give the Boilers a run here though, noting that Tennessee is 145-107 ATS in its last 252 games as an underdog. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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11-21-23 | Pacers +4.5 v. Hawks | Top | 157-152 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Hawks haven't been able to get out of their own way lately, off to an 0-2 start to their current homestand and 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over their last six games overall. Everything has seemingly been a grind for them as they've lacked offensive flow, getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in each of their last five contests. The Pacers came out rusty against the Magic on Sunday and perhaps that was to be expected following a four-day layoff. They dug themselves a massive 34-point halftime deficit against Orlando before rallying to make things respectable in the second half. Still, it was a loss so they'll be looking to bounce back here, noting they've gone a perfect 3-0 following their last three defeats. For what it's worth, the Pacers remain undefeated in the in-season tournament so they'll be looking to get a step closer to Las Vegas on Tuesday. Take Indiana (10*). |
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11-21-23 | Bowling Green -1 v. Western Michigan | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Bowling Green minus the points over Western Michigan at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this situation sets up for visiting Bowling Green as it looks to head into Bowl season on a high note with a win in Kalamazoo on Tuesday. The Falcons gained Bowl eligibility thanks to a four-game winning streak from October 14th to November 8th. They saw that streak snapped at the hands of Toledo last week, albeit by the slimmest of margins (one point). I don't expect any sort of letdown, even as they've fallen out of contention for the MAC Championship. This is an experienced, well-coached team under Scott Loeffler and I like their chances of bouncing back against a Western Michigan squad that is simply playing out the string. While the motivation should certainly be there for the Broncos on Senior Night, not to mention the fact that they're coming off an ugly shutout defeat against Northern Illinois that ended their hopes of reaching a Bowl game, that doesn't mean the execution will be. The Broncos have been wildly inconsistent in their first year under head coach Lance Taylor. Western Michigan's offense has shown flashes of brilliance but will need to be extremely careful against a turnover and sack-happy Falcons defense on Tuesday. Last year, Bowling Green held Western Michigan to just nine points in a four-point victory. This time around, I think we see a lot more production out of the Falcons offense on their way to a seventh victory on the campaign. Take Bowling Green (10*). |
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11-20-23 | Rockets v. Warriors -7.5 | 116-121 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Rockets have reeled off an incredible eight straight ATS victories but are in a tough spot here, playing their third game in four nights off a hard-fought one-point loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles last night. Golden State has lost six straight games and is 0-4-1 ATS over its last five contests. It should be happy to be facing the Rockets on Monday, however, noting that the Warriors outlasted Houston 106-95 on the road back in late October. Note that Golden State is 28-9 ATS in its last 37 home games after giving up 130 or more points in its previous contest, as is the case here. Take Golden State (8*). |
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11-20-23 | Kings v. Coyotes +131 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I don't think there's any question the Coyotes have had this game circled on their calendar since blowing a 4-1 lead in a 5-4 loss at home against the Kings on October 27th - their second straight defeat at the hands of Los Angeles at the time. I like Arizona to bounce back from Saturday's 5-2 loss in Winnipeg, noting it hasn't dropped consecutive games since, you guessed it, those two losses to the Kings on the 24th and 27th of October. Los Angeles checks in off back-to-back wins to salvage a 2-2 split on its four-game homestand. Note that the Kings are a long-term 47-72 when coming off a win by four goals or more, as is the case here, outscored by 0.5 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Coyotes are 10-4 in their last 14 home games following a road loss. Take Arizona (8*). |
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11-20-23 | Eagles +3 v. Chiefs | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is a rematch of last February's Super Bowl - a game where the Eagles were favored but ultimately fell by a score of 38-35. Revenge is of course a factor on Monday, but it's not really what this play is all about. I simply feel the Eagles are the superior team and suspect we'll be hearing whispers of 'what's wrong with the Chiefs?' throughout the week before they almost certainly 'get right' with a two-game road jaunt to Las Vegas and Green Bay. The bye week came at the right time for the Eagles as it gave QB Jalen Hurts a chance to rest his ailing knee. The Philadelphia defense also comes out of the bye arguably as healthy as it has been all season. The Eagles have been a curious study on defense this year as they've dared teams to beat them through the air, all but stamping out opposing ground games entirely. Here, the Chiefs will likely get their yardage through the air but I question how many drives they can end with 7's rather than 3's. It's worth noting that Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes has thrown just 17 touchdown passes through nine games this season - a far cry from the 41 he amassed last season. While Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's post-bye week success has been well-documented, I expect his spectacular record in that situation to be put to the test here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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11-20-23 | Florida State v. UNLV +4 | 83-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Florida State at 5:30 pm et on Monday. This game will be played in Daytona Beach, Florida, seemingly giving the in-state Seminoles over the Runnin' Rebels, who will be travelling across the country. That's been factored into the line, however, and I like UNLV to give Florida State all it can handle on Monday. The Rebels got off to a rough start to the campaign as they were upset by Southern University as 20-point favorites in their opener. Since the, they've bounced back by reeling off consecutive victories both SU and ATS. UNLV has posted consecutive winning seasons under head coach Kevin Kruger and they're poised for another positive campaign in 23-24. Florida State is coming off a disastrous 22-23 campaign, going 9-23. While they got off to a strong start against weak opposition this season, their first 'step up in class' game resulted in a 21-point rout at the hands of rival Florida. Safe to say the 'Noles aren't 'back' just yet and I look for them to stumble again on Monday. Take UNLV (8*). |
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11-19-23 | Magic v. Pacers -4.5 | 128-116 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Orlando at 5:10 pm et on Sunday. I like the spot for the Pacers here as they return to the court for the first time since Tuesday to host a Magic squad that should be fat and happy off consecutive wins in Chicago. Indiana has incredibly knocked down at least 44 field goals in eight straight games. Contrast that with the slow-paced Magic, who have had a tough enough time getting an ample number of shots off let alone knocking them down, connecting on 38 or fewer field goals in four straight games entering Sunday's contest. Of course, that is by design as the Magic are one of the league's better defensive teams. I simply feel they'll have a tough time keeping pace against a fresh-legged Pacers squad as they wrap up their four-game in six-night road trip on Sunday. Take Indiana (8*). |
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11-19-23 | Seahawks +2 v. Rams | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The revenge-minded Seahawks will look to clean things up after a shaky but victorious performance at home against the Commanders last week. You may remember the Rams dominated the Seahawks in Seattle back in Week 1. They're unlikely to catch Seattle flat-footed again here, however. The Rams have appeared in complete disarray during their current three-game SU and ATS slide and I'm not convinced their bye week will help them out in any way. The Seahawks would be well-advised to take advantage of this winnable matchup as their schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher with their next four games coming at home against the 49ers (on Thanksgiving), at the Cowboys, at the 49ers and at home against the Eagles. Take Seattle (8*). |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals +6 v. Texans | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the setup for the underdog Cardinals here as they look rejuvenated with QB Kyler Murray back at the helm and catch the Texans in a massive letdown spot off last Sunday's stunning road win in Cincinnati. Arizona has proven to be a 'tough out' under rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon this season and last week's offensive breakout led by Murray and fast-emerging TE Trey McBride has it brimming with confidence heading into this 'spoiler' spot against the upstart Texans. Houston has been involved in three straight barn-burners - all decided by three points or less. While this team may never' hit the wall in their first season under the guidance of head coach DeMeco Ryans, I do think they get tripped up at some point during this three-game homestand, noting they've yet to notch more than two victories in a row this season. Arizona checks in 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog of seven points or less while Houston is 21-38 ATS in its last 59 contests following an upset victory. Take Arizona (10*). |
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11-19-23 | Cowboys v. Panthers +11 | 33-10 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. As difficult as it is to do, we'll fade the Cowboys off their 49-point explosion against the hapless Giants last week. The Panthers have just one victory both SU and ATS this season, that coming on October 29th against the upstart Texans. Note that while they're 1-3 at home this season, only one of those losses came by more than eight points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys check in 2-3 SU on the road this season with their lone win by more than three points coming way back in their Week 1 rout of the Giants. Note that Dallas is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 road games following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here. The Panthers are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 home games after scoring 17 points or less in consecutive games, which is also the situation on Sunday. Take Carolina (8*). |
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11-19-23 | Steelers v. Browns -2 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Browns have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendar since the Steelers stunned them in a 26-22 victory in Pittsburgh on September 18th. The Steelers gained only 255 total yards in that game but turnovers were the story. The Browns have now lost QB Deshaun Watson to a season-ending injury but I don't expect them to fold the tent as a result. Everything is still in front of Cleveland after last week's upset win in Baltimore as it sits at 6-3 on the season in a crowded AFC North. This is a key spot with a sneaky-difficult two-game road jaunt to Denver and Los Angeles (vs. the Rams) on deck. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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11-18-23 | Washington v. Oregon State | Top | 22-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 4 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. It's been an incredible 10-0 start to the season for Washington and it deserves all the credit for that flawless record. I do expect it to fall for the first time on Saturday, however, as it heads to Corvallis to face a revenge-minded Oregon State squad. The Beavers dropped last year's matchup against the Huskies 24-21. That was in Seattle. Oregon State sports a perfect 5-0 record at home this season, most recently crushing Stanford by a 62-17 score last Saturday. I don't think the Beavers defense gets enough credit, overshadowed by that explosive offensive that showed up against the Cardinal last week. The Huskies have been in close game after close game lately and have certainly shown signs of wear defensively, allowing 108 points over their last three contests. Take Oregon State (10*). |
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11-18-23 | UNLV v. Air Force -3 | 31-27 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Air Force minus the points over UNLV at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. UNLV has enjoyed a tremendous season and would appear to be catching Air Force at the right time as the Falcons have lost each of their last two games SU and ATS. With that being said, I don't believe this is a favorable matchup for the Runnin' Rebels stylistically-speaking, and look for the Falcons to prevail. Air Force's defense continues to play well but the offense has been stuck in the mud over the last couple of games. I'm confident the Falcons can bounce back against a beatable UNLV defense here, noting that the Rebels have allowed 120+ rushing yards in four of their last five games, despite game script favoring them in most contests. It hasn't mattered what UNLV has thrown at Air Force defensively in the last couple of seasons, with the Falcons racking up nearly 1,000 total yards while scoring 90 points in two meetings. Take Air Force (8*). |
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11-18-23 | Utah v. Arizona UNDER 46.5 | Top | 18-42 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Arizona at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games last week but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Tucson on Saturday. Utah is a better defensive team than it has shown in recent weeks but keep in mind it has run into USC, Oregon and Washington - three of the top offensive teams not just in the Pac-12 but in the country - in the last four games. Here, it draws a more manageable matchup in Arizona. The Wildcats have been rolling offensively but aren't likely to overwhelm the Utes talented defense. On the flip side, Utah has yet to complete 20 or more passes in a game this season, clearly missing QB Cam Rising. The Utes figure to lean on their ground attack again this week, although they'll be facing a Wildcats defense that has been stout against the run, holding opponents to just 3.2 yards per rush on the campaign. Take the under (10*). |
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11-17-23 | Rockets v. Clippers -6 | 100-106 | Push | 0 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Houston at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Rockets have been one of the biggest surprises of the early season. Since starting 0-3 they've reeled off six straight wins, both SU and ATS. It is worth noting that all six of those wins came at home. They'll hit the road following a four-day layoff on Friday. The Clippers are at the opposite end of the spectrum, riding a six-game losing streak, going 1-5 ATS over that stretch. They have faced a pretty brutal recent schedule, however, but are in better position here at home following two days off to figure things out. The good news is, their issues are correctable as they simply haven't been knocking down their shots. I like the spot here before they're off for two more days prior to a two-game set in San Antonio. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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11-17-23 | Colorado v. Washington State -4.5 | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 51 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Colorado at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Washington State's current slide has really come out of nowhere. The Cougars got off to a terrific start this season before dropping six straight games and now even Bowl eligibility is in doubt as they need to win out, knowing that a very difficult matchup against in-state rival Washington lies ahead next week. Nevertheless, I do look for Washington State to finally turn in a complete performance and right the ship against a similarly sliding foe in Colorado on Friday. The Buffaloes have actually managed to win each of their last three games ATS but that's of little consolation as they've lost four in a row SU and will also need to win out to go 'Bowling' with a tough road tilt against Utah on deck next week. I simply like the Cougars advantages on defense here. They can't stop the run but that's by no means Colorado's m.o. on offense. Washington State did shine offensively last week against California, nearly pulling off a furious fourth quarter rally. It should be able to get loose again versus a Buffaloes squad that appears to be running out of gas having been licked for 124, 218, 195 and 211 rushing yards over their last four games. Take Washington State (8*). |
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11-16-23 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I can't help but feel the Bengals got caught overlooking the upstart Texans last Sunday, as many other teams have, or almost have this season. That loss snapped Cincinnati's four-game winning streak and put it in tough position here as it needs a win to avoid following three wins behind Baltimore in the AFC North standings. I do think the Bengals are one of those teams where the 'revenge' angle matters. We saw it in play to a certain extent a few weeks ago as Cincinnati went on the road and defeated San Francisco (after dropping a heartbreaker against the Niners at home in Joe Burrow's rookie season two years ago). Here, the Bengals will be looking to avenge an earlier 27-24 home loss against the Ravens, when Joe Burrow clearly wasn't right dealing with a calf injury earlier in the campaign. Baltimore also got caught overlooking its opponent last Sunday as it dropped a last-second decision against the division-rival Browns. While I don't believe the Ravens are as bad as they looked in the second half of that game, I also don't think they're as invincible as they appeared during their recent four-game winning streak. Home team has meant plenty in this series with the hosts winning four of the last five matchups. With that being said, you would have to go back three meetings here in Baltimore to find the last time the Ravens defeated the Bengals by more than two points. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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11-16-23 | Lightning -1.5 v. Blackhawks | 4-2 | Win | 135 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Lightning have more than likely had this game circled on their calendar since dropping an ugly 5-3 decision at home against the Blackhawks last week. Note that Tampa Bay was in a three-in-four situation playing in a third different city over that stretch while Chicago had been idle for the previous three days heading in. Since that loss, the Bolts have gone on to be shut out by both Carolina and St. Louis in lopsided defeats. Stretches like that have been few and far between for Tampa Bay under the guidance of head coach Jon Cooper. I look for the Lightning to bounce back on Thursday and we'll lay the extra goal, noting that five of their six victories this season have come by at least two goals. Each of Chicago's three home defeats have also come by at least two goals. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 goals (8*). |
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11-15-23 | Kings +1.5 v. Lakers | 125-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings have bounced back to deliver three straight wins following a three-game losing streak but all three of those victories came at home. I think they've had this six-game road trip circled on their calendar since an embarrassing two-game stop in Houston in which they were blown out just over a week ago. The Lakers check in to play the second of back-to-back nights after posting a blowout win over Memphis last night. Los Angeles has now won three games in a row although it went just 2-1 ATS over that stretch and has yet to deliver consecutive ATS victories this season. That's nothing new as Los Angeles is just 35-52 in its last 87 games after recording an ATS win, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points in that situation. There's no intimidation factor favoring the Lakers here as the Kings are 4-1 against them since the start of last season including a perfect 2-0 mark here in Los Angeles. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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11-15-23 | Wolves v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the reeling Suns as they catch the Timberwolves playing on the second of back-to-back nights. Phoenix has lost consecutive games, both SU and ATS, and is just 1-5-1 ATS over its last seven contests. With that being said, it is expected to get back some reinforcements on Wednesday, including Devin Booker. It also has the benefit of having been idle since Sunday's double-digit home loss to the Thunder. The Suns are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in seven meetings between these two teams in Phoenix since the start of the 21-22 season. Also note that they're 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 100 points in their previous game, as is the case here. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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11-15-23 | Knicks -1 v. Hawks | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks were humbled by the Celtics two nights ago in Boston. They'll be happy to be in Atlanta on Wednesday, where they've had plenty of success in recent years, going 4-1 SU in their last five matchups here. New York is a long-term 63-44 against Atlanta and is in a favorable spot here, waiting for the Hawks to return home after they managed to win (and cover) in Detroit without Trae Young last night. He'll likely be back in the Hawks lineup on Wednesday - regardless, I like the Knicks to bounce back. Take New York (8*). |
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11-15-23 | Cornell +3.5 v. George Mason | 83-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cornell plus the points over George Mason at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. While George Mason is in what figures to be a rebuilding year under first-year head coach Tony Skinn, Cornell has its best team in a number of years following consecutive winning seasons under head coach Brian Earl. Both teams check into Wednesday's sneaky-good matchup with perfect records although Cornell does have an extra game under its belt. George Mason has yet to really be tested having faced the 306th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season. The Patriots will have a tough time adapting to the Big Red's fluid, up-tempo attack on Wednesday. Look for Cornell's offense to prove to be too much. Take Cornell (8*). |
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11-14-23 | Wolves v. Warriors -1.5 | 104-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. With Steph Curry added to the injury report for the Warriors we've seen this line plummet. I'm willing to get behind Golden State regardless whether Curry is able to play or not on Tuesday. I think the Warriors problems right now are fixable. They've lost four of their last five contests as they've quite simply lost their shooting touch, knocking down 37 or fewer field goals in four of those games. It's been precisely the opposite for the Timberwolves, who have won six straight contests, making good on at least 43 field goals in each of their last five games. Interestingly, Minnesota has gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight contests, meaning it is playing with a relatively small margin for error. I look for the Warriors to clamp down here, noting that they're 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games after losing four or five of their last six games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the T'Wolves are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 road games after covering the spread in at least five straight contests, which is also the situation here. Take Golden State (8*). |
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11-14-23 | Kentucky +6 v. Kansas | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Kansas at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. Kansas has looked every bit deserving of the number one seed so far this season but we're only two games in and blowout victories over N.C. Central and Manhattan, at home no less, were to be expected. Here, the Jayhawks will face their first real test against John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats and I look for them to have their hands full. The Wildcats are 2-0 but are coming off an ATS loss in a 20-point win over Texas A&M-Commerce. I saw all I needed to know that Kentucky's ceiling is sky-high this season in an 86-46 dismantling of a good New Mexico State team in its season-opener. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series and the 'revenge' angle has worked over the last several years with neither side managing consecutive wins since Kansas accomplished that feat in 16-17 into 17-18. Take Kentucky (8*). |
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11-14-23 | Mavs v. Pelicans UNDER 240 | 110-131 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Any time we get what I consider to be a quality team playing at home on a long losing streak, I'm going to take a long look at the 'under'. That's the case on Tuesday as the Pelicans look to snap their five-game SU and ATS losing skid and earn some quick revenge after dropping a 136-124 decision at home against these same Mavericks on Sunday. The Pelicans got baited into a track meet in that game, ultimately hoisting up 92 field goal attempts in the double-digit loss. When New Orleans was enjoying success during a 4-1 start to the campaign, it was playing at a far more methodical pace, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in three of its first five contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 17-5 the last 22 times New Orleans has come off six or seven losses in its last eight games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 213.5 points in that situation. While the Mavs are coming off consecutive wins, they can't be pleased with their defensive play having allowed 127, 126 and 124 points over their last three contests. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-4 in their last 16 games following a road victory by 10 points or more. Take the under (8*). |
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11-14-23 | Bruins -150 v. Sabres | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's not often we get a chance to back the Bruins coming off a loss and when they're in that position, they tend to prevail. Boston is a perfect 2-0 following a loss this season and should continue its dominance over division rival Buffalo on Tuesday, noting that the Bruins have taken seven of the last eight meetings going back to the start of the 2021-22 campaign. Buffalo was shut out in Pittsburgh on Saturday and while it entered the campaign with playoff aspirations, it has disappointed so far, winning just seven times in 15 games. The B's are slowly getting back to full strength on the blue line and I'm confident we'll see them impose their will in Buffalo on Tuesday. Take Boston (8*). |
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11-14-23 | Duke v. Michigan State OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Michigan State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. While I do like Duke to bounce back from Friday's home loss against Arizona, I don't think the oddsmakers have its backers any favors by installing them as two-possession favorites against Michigan State at the United Center on Tuesday. Michigan State enters with perhaps just as big of a chip on its shoulder after it dropped a stunning home-opening loss to James Madison (before bouncing back with a blowout victory over Southern Indiana). Regardless, I expect both teams to go flat out in an effort to re-establish themselves in the national rankings (the Blue Devils fell from second to ninth while the Spartans tumbled from fourth all the way to 18th). Note that Michigan State has allowed each of its first two opponents to get out and run with both hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Duke won't shy away from pushing the pace here as it has attempted 59 and 65 field goals through two contests. You only have to go back to the 2022 NCAA Tournament to find the last time these storied programs met and the result was an 85-76 Duke victory. Take the over (10*). |
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11-13-23 | Avalanche -143 v. Seattle Kraken | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Monday. Wrong place at the wrong time for the Kraken as they look to make it two in a row over the Avalanche. Colorado was blasted 8-3 by the Blues in one of the more stunning results of the young season on Saturday night at home. I'm confident we'll see the Avs bounce back here as they look to avenge last week's home loss against Seattle. This is one of those unique one-game road trips where the elite teams tend to take care of business. Meanwhile, Seattle is licking its wounds following a 4-1 home loss to the reeling Oilers on Saturday and checks in just 2-4 at Climate Pledge Arena this season, oustscored by 1.2 goals on average along the way. Take Colorado (8*). |
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11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills -7 | 24-22 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Bills have now dropped the cash in five straight games after last week's 24-18 setback in Cincinnati. While their offense bogged down in that game, their banged-up defense actually held up well against an elite offense. If there's one thing the Broncos have done well lately it's run the football but Buffalo has actually done a tremendous job of snuffing out opposing ground attacks over its last three contests, yielding just 3.6 yards per rush. Denver, on the other hand, has been torched on the ground, allowing a ridiculous 6.1 yards per rush on the road this season. If the Bills can get their ground game going early on Monday, it could be lights out in a hurry as Josh Allen draws a smash spot against the Broncos 'one-trick pony' pass defense here. Buffalo desperately needs to take advantage of this two-game homestand that also includes a date with the Jets next week before a brutal stretch that includes road games against the Eagles, Chiefs and Chargers and a home contest against the Cowboys. Take Buffalo (8*). |
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11-12-23 | Heat v. Spurs +2 | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Miami at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have really been struggling defensively but they earn a reprieve of sorts on Sunday as they host the Heat playing in a back-to-back spot and not exactly setting the court on fire offensively. Miami has knocked down 41 or fewer field goals in eight of nine games this season, only managing to eclipse that mark in a win (but non-cover) against Washington. The Spurs check in playing well offensively, having made good on 43 or more field goals in five of their last six contests. San Antonio does figure to put some pressure on a Miami team playing on no rest, noting that the Spurs have hoisted up at least 90 field goal attempts in six straight games. While the Spurs have lost four games in a row we do know they're capable of better as they swept a two-game road set against the Suns and defeated an improved Rockets team here at home. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-12-23 | Commanders v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Washington at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I generally look to fade the Commanders off a win at the best of times but here we have their opponent in a smash spot as well as the Seahawks return home following a lifeless performance in Baltimore last week. Washington has relied heavily on dual-threat QB Sam Howell to keep its offense afloat without a ground game to speak of this season. That spells trouble in situations such as this, however, where the Commanders are likely to be playing from behind. Seattle has struggled to lift the lid off its offense in recent weeks after showing so much promise early in the campaign (it scored exactly 37 points in consecutive games against Detroit and Carolina in September). This looks like a potential breakout spot against a Washington squad that has already allowed 30+ points on five different occasions this season and certainly didn't get any better defensively but cutting ties with pass-rush specialists Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Note that Washington is averaging a woeful 14.5 points per game the last six times it has come off an upset win on the road, as is the case here. Take Seattle (10*). |
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11-12-23 | Lions -3 v. Chargers | 41-38 | Push | 0 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Chargers have taken full advantage of back-to-back favorable primetime matchups against the Bears and Jets but now take a big step up in class as they host the rested Lions on Sunday afternoon. Detroit is coming off its bye week which gave it the opportunity to get healthy on offense with RB David Montgomery, LG Jonah Jackson and C Frank Ragnow set to return. That's positive news for QB Jared Goff, especially when you consider Montgomery can not only produce yards on the ground and through the air but is also one of the league's best blocking backs. The Chargers offense is predicated on balance which doesn't bode particularly well here with the Lions allowing just 3.7 yards per rush this season. Only one of Detroit's eight opponents has managed to rush for 100 or more yards this season. With eight of the Lions last nine games coming indoors, they're well-positioned to take flight and I think it all starts with this road tilt on Sunday. Take Detroit (8*). |
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11-12-23 | 49ers v. Jaguars OVER 45 | Top | 34-3 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers come out of their bye week and look to snap a three-game losing streak in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. With WR Deebo Samuel and LT Trent Williams set to return it should be all systems go for the 49ers offense. Note that San Francisco turned the football over three times in each of its last two games with a number of potential scoring drives going awry as a result. The Niners still scored 17 points in each of those two contests and should be able to improve on that production here. Jacksonville has scored 20 or more points in five straight games and I don't expect it to go away quietly on Sunday. You can be sure QB Trevor Lawrence hasn't forgotten a stinker of a performance at home against the Niners during his rookie season in 2021. That was back when Jacksonville was guided by head coach Urban Meyer and Lawrence's weapons included the likes of RB James Robinson and WRs Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault Jr. The fact that the Jags even scored 10 points on that day was admirable. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-23 | Florida +15 v. LSU | 35-52 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida plus the points over LSU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. The Gators are running out of real estate if they want to gain Bowl eligibility this season as they have this game followed by a difficult road test against Missouri and a home date with rival Florida State left on the schedule. I look for them to give the Tigers all they can handle on Saturday in the Bayou. Florida was routed against Georgia two weeks ago and then fell just short as a favorite against Arkansas last Saturday. It's been a rough ride for the Gators and while they're by no means an elite team, they do have enough talent to hang with most teams in the SEC on a good night. The Tigers had reeled off three straight wins, both SU and ATS before it all came crashing down against rival Alabama last Saturday. As a whole, LSU has been a disappointment this season, losing three games and going a modest 5-4 ATS along the way. The Tigers have had their hands full with the Gators essentially every year since 2011, when they crushed Florida by a 41-11 score. This doesn't look like the LSU team that suddenly regains complete control in this series. Take Florida (8*). |
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11-11-23 | Hurricanes v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off disappointing performances with the Lightning losing at home against the Blackhawks two nights ago and the Hurricanes fresh off a 5-2 defeat against the Panthers last night. I would anticipate both teams tightening things up defensively on Saturday and it's worth noting that we've seen a shutout pitched in each of the last three meetings in this series including a 3-0 Lightning victory on this ice back in October. Carolina got off to a miserable start defensively this season but prior to last night's contest it had held six straight opponents to three goals or fewer and four of those foes to less than three markers. The Bolts allowed five goals against Chicago on Thursday but have still given up just 2.7 goals per game on home ice this season. Take the under (8*). |
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11-11-23 | Washington State +2.5 v. California | Top | 39-42 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington State plus the points over California at 4 pm et on Saturday. I'm not out on Washington State just yet. The Cougars have lost five games in a row, going 1-4 ATS over that stretch but I think they're in a smash spot against Cal on Saturday. The Golden Bears have dropped four games in a row and are a woeful 3-6 ATS on the campaign including 1-6 over their last seven contests. Washington State's recent slide has really come out of nowhere as it started the campaign with four straight wins and also gave UCLA and Oregon all it could handle in a couple of October road games. That's why I'm not ready to give up on the Cougars. Cal has employed a matador-like defense, yielding 203, 317, 128 and 153 rushing yards over its last four games. The Bears have been torched for 369 and 444 passing yards over the last two contests. Enough said. Take Washington State (10*). |
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11-11-23 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin UNDER 43 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Wisconsin at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. While Iowa is getting all the attention for its extremely low-scoring games in the Big Ten this season, Wisconsin isn't far behind - or shouldn't be moving forward anyway. The Badgers have scored 14 points or less in three of their last four games as they deal with a cluster of key injuries on the offensive side of the football. Their defense has been less impacted and checks in having held eight of nine opponents to 24 points or less this season. Northwestern has shown flashes on offense but has stagnated as usual for the most part. The Wildcats are coming off a 10-7 loss to Iowa last week. In four road games this season Northwestern has produced 7, 14, 9 and 7 points. Wisconsin has scored 35 and 42 points in the last two meetings in this series but I don't expect it to come close to that level of production on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-11-23 | Texas Southern v. Arizona State -14.5 | 52-63 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona State minus the points over Texas Southern at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Texas Southern stunned Arizona State as an 11-point home underdog in last year's matchup. I look for the Sun Devils to exact their revenge on Saturday afternoon in Tempe. Note that Arizona State opened the 23-24 campaign with a 71-56 loss against a good Mississippi State team. The Sun Devils showed plenty of rust offensively in that game as they knocked down only 17-of-53 field goal attempts. This matchup should provide Arizona State with ample opportunity to bounce back, noting that Texas Southern allowed New Mexico to connect on 30-of-67 field goal attempts in its season-opening 92-55 loss. Note that Texas Southern is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss. Take Arizona State (8*). |
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11-10-23 | Wyoming v. UNLV -5.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 64 h 41 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on UNLV minus the points over Wyoming at 10:45 pm et on Friday. While few are paying much attention, the Runnin' Rebels have a special thing going in Las Vegas this season. They're off to a 7-2 start to the campaign and still have more runway in front of them with three games left on the schedule, including this matchup with Wyoming on Friday night. UNLV demolished New Mexico State by a 56-14 score last Saturday, on the road no less. It's been a case of no Doug Brumfield, no problem for the Runnin' Rebels offense as backup QB Jayden Maiava has stepped in and performed admirably. UNLV boasts a multi-pronged offensive attack that is a handful for the best of defenses and I certainly wouldn't put Wyoming in that category. Yes, the Cowboys have come up big at times this season, most recently last Friday as they secured Bowl eligibility with a 24-15 home win over Colorado State. This isn't a team that travels well, however, noting that Wyoming has gone 0-3 away from home this season, albeit against tough opposition in Texas, Air Force and Boise State, losing those three games by a combined 53 points. Cowboys QB Andrew Peasley continues to struggle, noting that as a team, they've completed more than 18 passes in a game just once this season and that came in a contest where they threw for just 199 yards against Fresno State. Last Friday, the ground attack exploded led by RB Harrison Waylee but again, those performances have been few and far between this season. Wyoming has owned this series for the most part, taking the most recent two meetings by 36 and 31 points. Those came back in 2019 and 2020, however. The Runnin' Rebels are a much different team right now and I look for them to prove it again in front of a national audience on Friday night. Take UNLV (10*). |
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11-10-23 | Thunder v. Kings +2.5 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Kings struggled again but still managed to snap their three-game losing streak with an overtime victory over the Blazers at home on Wednesday. They'll have the benefit of staying at home as they host the Thunder on Friday night. For whatever reason, Sacramento has had Oklahoma City's number in recent years, taking six straight meetings in this series going back to December of 2021. While we often like backing the Thunder in an underdog role, that's not the case on Friday as they check in as a rare road favorite following consecutive wins (and covers) at home. Wednesday's ATS defeat may have been the last straw for some Kings bettors but we'll go the other way and call for them to snap their three-game ATS skid on Friday night. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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11-10-23 | Lakers v. Suns OVER 222.5 | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The first matchup between these two teams this season was low-scoring as the Lakers defeated the Suns 100-95 in Los Angeles. I expect a different story to unfold in Friday's rematch in the desert. As usual, the Lakers have had no interest in slowing down opposing teams, allowing six of eight opponents to hoist up more than 90 field goal attempts this season. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse defensive basketball right now with Los Angeles having allowed 47, 46, 41 and 51 made field goals over its last four contests. It's been a similar story for the Suns. They've allowed five of six opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts since facing the Lakers on October 26th. Each of their last five opponents have knocked down at least 42 field goals. Take the over (8*). |
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11-10-23 | Hornets +2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Southeast Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. This is a quick revenge spot for the Hornets after they dropped a 132-116 decision as 2.5-point home favorites against the Wizards two nights ago. I like Charlotte's chances of rebounding here. Note that the Wizards are an awful defensive team, allowing 126.9 points per game on a blistering 51.7% shooting this season. The only reason they were able to outlast the Hornets on Wednesday was that Charlotte didn't take care of the basketball, turning it over a season-high 20 times. Note that Washington is a long-term 169-213 ATS when coming off an outright win as an underdog. The Wizards are also in a classic fade spot of mine as they return home on just one day of rest following a road trip that lasted four games or longer. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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11-10-23 | Arizona v. Duke OVER 153.5 | 78-73 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Duke at 7 pm et on Friday. While the betting majority will likely be on this play with us on Friday, that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. I simply feel this game will resemble a pro-style contest with the Wildcats and Blue Devils vying to remain perfect on the young campaign. Duke probably doesn't want to get involved in a track meet with Arizona but I'm not sure it will have a choice in the matter, even at home. The Wildcats will run, run and run some more and it's just too early in the season for the Blue Devils to truly have their wits about them defensively. On the flip side, Duke is favored for a reason in this contest and it will undoubtedly hold its own offensively against what projects to be an average Arizona defense (its first opponent of the season Morgan State turned the basketball over 25 times and made good on only 22 field goals yet still put up 59 points). Take the over (8*). |
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11-09-23 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 233 | 120-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Orlando at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. The oddsmakers are projecting a track meet between these two teams in Mexico City on Thursday but I don't see it unfolding that way. The Magic have gotten off to a 4-3 start to the campaign thanks to a stout defense that has held all seven opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. That has come at the expense of their offense at times as they've played a fairly methodical style (by today's NBA standards), making good on 40 or fewer field goals in five of seven contests. Atlanta plays no such tough defense but I do think we see it shy away from an up-and-down affair here after falling short in precisely that type of contest last time out in Oklahoma City. Following a red hot five-game shooting stretch, Atlanta knocked down just 38-of-102 field goal attempts against the Thunder. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 10-0 in the Magic's last 10 road games following a home loss and 50-32 in their last 82 contests following an ATS defeat. These NBA games played in Mexico City have had a tendency to be lower-scoring with last year's matchup between the Heat and Spurs producing 212 total points. Prior to that the Spurs and Suns combined to score 218 points in 2019. The Magic played a pair of games here in 2018 with those contests reaching 188 and 185 points. Take the under (8*). |
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11-09-23 | Virginia v. Louisville -20 | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Virginia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Ordinarily I wouldn't want any part of backing a team coming off consecutive blowout wins, playing at home against an opponent that doesn't exactly draw a great deal of motivation. Here, I'm willing to make an exception, however. Virginia reeled off five straight ATS wins from late September through October but that streak ended with a thud in a 45-17 home loss against Georgia Tech on Saturday, ending the Cavaliers faint hopes of becoming Bowl eligible. There was no way the Yellow Jackets were going to be caught sleep-walking in that matchup after Virginia upset North Carolina and nearly did the same against Miami, both on the road. I'm not about to chalk the Cavaliers up as road warriors, however, and I see this as a complete mismatch against Louisville. The Cardinals have quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the country this season, all but snuffing out opposing ground attacks entirely, which really puts a wrench in what the Cavaliers want to do on Thursday. Louisville also knows how to take the air out of the football and put games away after building a lead here at home, notching victories by 28 points over Boston College, 13 points over Notre Dame, 23 points over Duke and most recently 31 points over Virginia Tech last Saturday. The schedule will get much tougher for the Cardinals over the final two weeks of the regular season as they travel to Miami before hosting in-state rival Kentucky. Look for Louisville to make the most of this ramp-up game on Thursday, noting that it is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 lined home contests while Virginia is a woeful 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after winning five or six of its last seven contests ATS, as is the case here. Take Louisville (8*). |
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11-09-23 | Wild v. Rangers UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 104 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last Saturday in Minnesota as the Wild rallied for a 5-4 shootout victory. Minnesota has no hope of being a true contender this season if it can't button things up defensively. The Wild have allowed 4.1 goals per game but I do think they're a better defensive team than they've shown. Meanwhile, the Rangers check in allowing just 2.2 goals per contest on home ice this season. I would anticipate some offensive regression over the next couple of games after they scored nine goals in their last two contests. Note that the 'under' is 28-12 with New York coming off a home victory in which it scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 5.5 goals in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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11-08-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets -3 | 105-108 | Push | 0 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors have undoubtedly had this matchup circled since dropping all three meetings with the Nuggets last season. I'm not sure it matters. Denver overcame a miserable first half against New Orleans on Monday before unloading in the final 24 minutes in a runaway 134-116 victory. It's been that kind of start to the campaign for Denver as it has very much looked like the team to beat in the Western Conference. The Warriors have covered a ton of ground in the early going this season with their current road trip already taking them to Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Detroit and now Denver. In fact, this will be Golden State's ninth game in the last 13 nights, in nine different cities. The Nuggets on the other hand have been home and cool since November 3rd and following Wednesday's contest will enjoy three off days before a game in Houston on Sunday. Note that Denver is a long-term 137-101 ATS when playing at home off consecutive home games, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). |
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11-08-23 | Kings v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. This sets up as an ideal bounce-back spot for the Golden Knights as they return home off a rare loss in Anaheim on Sunday. Vegas scored just twice in that contest but should rebound nicely at home, where it averages 4.0 goals per game this season. The Kings are coming off a shutout victory in Philadelphia - their first clean sheet of the season. While I don't expect Los Angeles to keep Vegas off the scoreboard here, I do think the Kings can hang with the Golden Knights offensively, noting that they're averaging a whopping 4.8 goals per game on the road this season. We've seen 12 straight meetings in this series total at least six goals but the Kings three-game 'under' streak heading into this clash is looming large and holding this posted total at exactly six goals at the time of writing. Despite Los Angeles' recent run of 'under' results, the 'over' is actually 24-14 when it comes off an 'under' over the last two seasons, with that situation resulting in an average total of 7.0 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-23 | Lakers -2.5 v. Rockets | 94-128 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets laid waste to the Kings over the last two games and are now 3-1 on their current six-game homestand. Keep in mind, this is a team that started the campaign with three straight losses, both SU and ATS. Note that Houston is a long-term 103-136 ATS when coming off three straight ATS victories, as is the case here. The Lakers have dropped the first two games on their current road trip, most recently falling just one point short in Miami on Monday. The finale of this trip will come against a revenge-minded Suns squad in Phoenix on Friday so if they want to salvage something positive, this would appear to be the spot. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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11-07-23 | Penguins v. Ducks UNDER 6.5 | 2-0 | Win | 107 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Penguins scored an incredible 10 goals last time out but that came against the lowly Sharks (who proceeded to give up 10 goals in their next game as well). I don't expect Pittsburgh to come close to repeating that performance on Tuesday, noting that its opponent, Anaheim, has held nine of its last 10 opponents to three goals or less. The Ducks have scored at least four goals in five straight games but have actually fired fewer than 30 shots on goal in each of their last four contests. Meanwhile, the Pens have held three consecutive opponents to 27 shots on goal or fewer. The 'over' has cashed in all three meetings between these two teams going back to last season, including a 4-3 Ducks victory in Pittsburgh back on October 30th. Take the under (8*). |
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11-07-23 | Northern Iowa v. North Texas UNDER 129.5 | 77-83 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Northern Iowa and North Texas at 8 pm et on Tuesday. No team played slower than North Texas last season as it ranked 363rd out of 363 teams in adjusted tempo but that was by design as it also finished 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency, riding that hard-nosed defensive style to a NIT championship. While Ross Hodge is the new head coach, nothing is likely to change as Hodge has been running the Mean Green Eagles defense for a number of years. All indications are that his players have bought in during practices and I don't anticipate North Texas missing a beat defensively out of the gate this season. Northern Iowa returns its top five scorers from last season under long-time head coach Ben Jacobson. The Panthers have been a middling bunch in terms of pace under Jacobson but there's been a renewed focus on playing good defensive basketball entering the 23-24 campaign. “We were awful last year defensively,” Jacobson said in late October. “We’ve spent a lot of time working (on that). So we have got a defensive team we can count on.” I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (8*). |
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11-06-23 | Pelicans +6 v. Nuggets | 116-134 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Pelicans are coming off an 18-point rout at the hands of the red hot Hawks on Saturday. While this doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back spot on paper as they head out on the road to face the defending champion Nuggets, it's worth noting that they hung with Denver in four meetings last season, going 2-2 with the two defeats coming by a combined 10 points. Denver is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS on its current homestand, marking its first ATS winning streak this season. While New Orleans will be without C.J. McCollum for an indefinite period of time due to a lung issue, Denver could be without oft-injured Jamal Murray as he deals with a knee injury. The Pelicans are just 2-2 ATS at home this season but a perfect 2-0 ATS on the road and I look for them to run that record to 3-0 on Monday. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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11-06-23 | Chargers v. Jets +3.5 | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll take my chances grabbing the points with the Jets in what projects as a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night in New Jersey. Note that these two teams were involved in a high-scoring shootout the last time they met in 2020. On that day, the Jets nearly staged a massive upset (as 10-point underdogs) on the road, with Joe Flacco starting at quarterback, despite Chargers QB Justin Herbert completing 37-of-49 passes for 347 yards (Los Angeles won by only six points). We've already seen the Jets employ smart strategies in similarly tough home matchups this season, holding the likes of Buffalo and Philadelphia to just 16 and 14 points in a pair of upset victories. Jets QB Zach Wilson is likely to be under duress all night long but I have confidence in RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson's ability to come up with enough big plays to keep the Chargers defense honest. Los Angeles hasn't been able to find a consistent ground attack this season, making it unlikely it will be able to 'take the air out of the football' should it build a lead in this contest. The Jets have done a tremendous job of stamping out opposing passing games, allowing 268 passing yards or less in all seven games to date. Take New York (8*). |
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11-06-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -145 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Leafs desperately need to stop the bleeding after suffering their fourth consecutive loss on Saturday night against Buffalo. I look for them to do just that as they host the division rival Lightning on Monday. Note that Toronto already took the first meeting between these two teams this season, in Tampa no less. It snapped a two-game losing streak on that occasion. Note that the Lightning are just 12-20 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed four goals or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Leafs are 12-1 in their last 13 games after giving up five goals or more in their previous contest, which is also the situation here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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11-05-23 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Blazers | Top | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Portland at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The upstart Blazers are coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, including an overtime victory over these same Grizzlies on Friday. I look for Memphis to answer back and notch its first victory of the campaign in Sunday's rematch. Memphis actually outshot Portland by a considerable margin on Friday but couldn't overcome a 36-13 discrepancy in terms of free throw attempts. That should even out in Sunday's contest. Note that the Grizzlies are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored at least 110 points, as is the case here. The Blazers are a long-term 43-67 ATS in an underdog role and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 contests as a home underdog of six points or less, outscored by an average margin of 7.0 points in that situation. Take Memphis (10*). |
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11-05-23 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. These two offenses balled out last Sunday as the Cowboys exploded for 43 points in a rout of the Rams while the Eagles rallied to secure a 38-31 road win over the Commanders. I expect nothing of the sort in terms of offensive production on Sunday as Dallas heads to Philadelphia. The Cowboys lived in the Rams backfield last Sunday, ultimately leading to plenty of mistakes and short fields for the offense. It's unlikely they'll enjoy the same level of success against an elite Eagles offensive line here. Philadelphia got away from its ground game last week but that was almost entirely game-script dependent as it trailed much of the way, ultimately running the football just 22 times. It was a similar story a few weeks ago against the Jets in New York. Here, I look for a far more run-centric approach from the Eagles in a game where they've been installed as a home favorite. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-1 in the Cowboys last 10 games where the line was posted between +3 and -3, as is the case here. The 'under' is a long-term 50-20 in the Eagles last 70 games after their previous contest totalled 60 or more points and 17-6 in their last 23 home games after a win by seven points or less against a divisional foe, with both of those situations in play here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-23 | Cowboys v. Eagles -3 | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Cowboys seem to generally have a small margin for error when they step up in class for games such as this one, particularly on the road. They turned in a near-perfect performance at home against the Rams last Sunday, particularly on the defensive side of the football, yet still only forced one turnover. The 'well has run dry' so to speak in that department as they've failed to force more than a single turnover in any of their last three games - something I do think they'll need to do in order to reach the win column on Sunday. While something like turnovers isn't really predictable, I do think we can count on the Eagles to put a supreme focus on taking care of the football on Sunday after they coughed it up a whopping eight times over the last three games (they still won two of those three contests). The Cowboys check in a woeful 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games after recording a home win by 21 points or more. Worse still, they're a long-term 16-37 ATS after delivering five or six ATS wins in their last seven games, which is also the situation here (5-2 ATS this season). The Eagles are 8-1 ATS in their last nine contests as a home favorite of a touchdown or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.1 points. Meanwhile, the home team has gone 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series with the lone road cover over that stretch coming by way of Dallas in a regular season finale where it was favored by 6.5 points in 2022 (Gardner Minshew started that game for Philadelphia). Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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11-05-23 | Seahawks v. Ravens UNDER 44 | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We'll call for a Ravens letdown offensively after they scored 30+ points in each of their last two games. With that said, I'm not convinced the Seahawks are set up favorably here either as they come off last Sunday's thrilling come-from-behind win over the Browns. Seattle's offense appeared to be cleared for takeoff out of the gates this season but save for some flashes of brilliance (ie. the game-winning drive last Sunday), hasn't really lived up to expectations. Since scoring 37 points against Carolina on September 24th - its second straight game scoring 30+ points - Seattle has been held to 24, 13, 20 and 24 points over its last four games. The Seahawks lone tough defensive opponent over that stretch was Cincinnati and they were held to just 13 points in that contest. Both teams want to run the football consistently and I think this game stays tight enough all the way that they'll stick with pounding the rock - an 'under' bettor's best friend. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-5 in the Ravens last 19 games as a favorite and 9-2 in their last 11 home contests. Take the under (8*). |
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11-05-23 | Dolphins v. Chiefs OVER 50 | 14-21 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Kansas City at 9:30 am et on Saturday. The Chiefs have seen the 'under' cash in four straight games entering Sunday's much-anticipated clash with the Dolphins in Germany. I look for a different story to unfold as this game has shootout potential. Miami did welcome back Jalen Ramsey, earlier than expected, from a knee injury last week, bolstering their defense. I still consider the Dolphins defense to be beatable and am confident we'll see the Chiefs rebound offensively following last Sunday's dismal showing in Denver. The Broncos defense has proven to have Kansas City's number in two meetings this season. The last time Miami lined up against Kansas City back in 2020 it was tagged for 33 points in a six-point home defeat. The Fins aren't likely to shy away from a shootout here. There's optimism that Terron Armstead could return to strengthen their offensive line. Even if he can't go, I look for Miami's offense to put forth a better showing than we saw in its most recent spotlight game against Philadelphia two weeks ago. The Chiefs defense has held up incredibly well this season, but has shown signs of sagging a bit lately, yielding 115, 139 and 153 rushing yards over its last three games. If the Fins can get their ground attack rolling downhill the sky's the limit for their passing game on Sunday as the Chiefs simply don't have the personnel to match up against the duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill (spoiler alert: No team does). Take the over (8*). |
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11-04-23 | Stanford v. Washington State -13 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Stanford at 9 pm et on Saturday. The Cougars have fallen on hard times after a terrific start to the season, dropping four games in a row while going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. They looked like they simply ran out of gas in their second straight road game last week as they lost outright as four-point favorites in Tempe. I like the bounce-back spot for Washington State here as it hosts Stanford, which gave mighty Washington all it could handle as a big underdog in Seattle last Saturday. The Cardinal are still just one game removed from a 42-7 home loss against UCLA. There was also a 42-6 beatdown at the hands of Oregon in late September. In other words, the Cardinal are extremely inconsistent. I was high on Washington State at the start of the season and despite its rough ride recently, I still believe this team has the potential to make some noise down the stretch, culminating with a big opportunity to play spoiler against rival Washington in the Apple Cup on November 25th. Note that the Cougars are a long-term 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games when coming off a contest where they didn't force a single turnover, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.4 points in that situation. Take Washington State (10*). |
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11-04-23 | Florida State v. Pittsburgh +21.5 | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Florida State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Florida State is rolling right now having won eight straight games to open the campaign including each of its last three ATS. I look for its ATS winning streak to come to an end on Saturday, however, as it faces a bit of a tough spot to get up for against a 2-6 Pittsburgh squad. We know the Panthers will be up for this one after nothing went right for them in last week's 58-7 drubbing in South Bend. Keep in mind, Pitt had been playing competitive football - the last time we saw it on this field it laid waste to a good Louisville team by a 38-21 score. Of its six losses this season, last week's was the first to come by more than 17 points. There's a level of unfamiliarity between these two conference foes, noting they've met only twice all-time with the most recent coming in 2020 (Pitt won that game 41-17 in Tallahassee). Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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11-04-23 | Arizona State v. Utah -11 | 3-55 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Arizona State at 2 pm et on Saturday. The Utes were crushed 35-6 at home against Oregon last week. They're not a team built for coming back from big deficits, not with QB Cam Rising sidelined, and it showed as that contest got away from them in a hurry. Here, I expect a much different game script to unfold as Utah looks to bounce back at home against Arizona State. The Sun Devils are in a certain letdown spot after snapping their six-game losing streak with an upset win at home against Washington State last week. Arizona State is still going nowhere this season and will be hard-pressed to find another win on its remaining schedule. I look for the Utes to clamp down defensively while their offense rebounds following last week's putrid performance (they had scored exactly 34 points in consecutive games entering that contest). Take Utah (8*). |
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11-03-23 | Mavs v. Nuggets OVER 226.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Nuggets have reeled off five straight 'under' results to open the season but I think we have a catalyst for change in play as they come off their first defeat of the campaign in Minnesota two nights ago. Denver had an off night shooting the basketball against the T'Wolves, knocking down just 38-of-96 field goal attempts. Prior to that, the Nuggets had made good on more than 40 field goals in all four games, topping out at a whopping 53 made field goals in a win in Oklahoma City. On the flip side, Denver has been terrific defensively but does figure to get tested here. Dallas has knocked down 47, 44 and 42 field goals in its first three games before being held to just 37 in a slow-paced game against the Bulls. Keep in mind, the Mavericks still scored 114 points in that most recent contest and a slower-paced affair was to be expected against Chicago. Defensively, the Mavs warts have yet to be exposed thanks to their strong offensive production. They've actually allowed all four opponents to make good on 42 or more field goals this season and the Nuggets ripped them for a blistering 88-of-162 (54.3%) shooting in two meetings in Denver last season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-03-23 | Boston College v. Syracuse UNDER 51 | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston College and Syracuse at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I think everyone wants to believe in this Syracuse offense but it's just not there this season. The Orange have been held to 34 points in their last four games combined. That's no fluke. They're quite simply playing awful football right now. I do have faith in the Syracuse defense, led by its back-end, here at home, however. The Orange have allowed 38+ points in three straight games. This is a matchup they can handle though. Boston College mustered only 21 points in last week's win over lowly Connecticut. The Eagles have found their ground game and they're willing to hang their hat on it right now having rushed for 200+ yards in four straight games and 300+ in two of those contests. Defensively, the Eagles have incredibly held all but one of their eight opponents to 18 pass completions or fewer. Take the under (8*). |
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11-02-23 | Magic v. Jazz | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Utah at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this play sets up as the Magic got a chance to scout the Jazz first hand last night (Utah played Memphis) following a winless two-game stop-over in Los Angeles. I'm of the belief that Orlando has a chance to be a good, if not great team this season but so far it has managed only two wins in four games. The Magic should have a little extra chip on their shoulder on Thursday after they dropped both meetings between these two teams last season including a narrow four-point defeat here in Salt Lake City. Note that Orlando has generally gotten stronger as road trips have gone on in recent years, posting a 17-6 ATS mark in its last 23 road contests following consecutive games played away from home, as is the case here. Take Orlando (8*). |
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11-02-23 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins -109 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Bruins always get up for games against the Leafs, even if Toronto appears to be down right now, just 5-4 on the season and off consecutive losses. Boston has dropped just one game so far this season and checks in an incredible 20-4 in its last 24 games when coming off a one-goal victory, as is the case here. The Bruins have owned this series in Beantown over the years, going 45-27 in the last 72 meetings. It's not often we can back the B's at such a reasonable price at home. While they are missing Charlie McAvoy to a suspension right now, I'm confident they can overcome that and add to the Leafs misery on Thursday. Take Boston (8*). |
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11-02-23 | TCU v. Texas Tech OVER 59.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between TCU and Texas Tech at 7 pm et on Thursday. We're working with a considerably lower posted total than we saw in last year's matchup between these two teams. After all, that game reached 'only' 58 total points and both teams are coming off dismal offensive showings in their most recent game. I do think we'll see plenty of points on the board on Thursday, however, as this game has shootout potential. Few opponents have bombed away on the TCU defense this season. But we know it's possible as Colorado ripped the Horned Frogs for 38-of-47 passing for over 500 yards back in Week 1. While it has been somewhat game-script dependent, Texas Tech is coming off a pair of games in which it aired it out 49 and 37 times. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders ground attack has churned out 153 or more rushing yards in seven straight games. TCU won't shy away from slinging it all over the field either, noting that it has completed at least 21 passes in all eight games so far this season with three 300+ passing yard games. The Horned Frogs have racked up over 100 rushing yards in all eight games this season. Neither team has had a tendency to hold onto the football for long stretches with both averaging right around 27 minutes per game in terms of time of possession. I think that quick-strike potential will be there all night long in Lubbock. Take the over (10*). |
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11-01-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors are off to a perfect 4-0 start to the season after staging an 'upset' road win in New Orleans on Monday. That concluded a perfect 3-0 trip for Golden State, which began with a victory over the same Kings they'll face back home on Wednesday. I like Sacramento's chances of exacting some early season revenge as it looks to improve on its 2-1 start to the campaign. Remember, the Kings proved they could hang with the Warriors in the first round of last April's playoffs, pushing them to seven games. Sacramento won't have the services of De'Aaron Fox for an extended period of time but that's been more than factored into this line in my opinion. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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11-01-23 | Stars v. Flames UNDER 6 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Calgary at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. You can make the argument that the Flames have been the league's biggest disappointment in the first month of the season. Their offense is downright awful as they've produced a grand total of six goals during their current five-game losing streak. That includes just one goal scored during a recent two-game homestand. I do expect Calgary to bounce back with a gritty performance here, however, following Sunday's ugly 5-2 defeat against the rival Oilers in the Heritage Classic. Note that only three of Calgary's nine opponents have scored more than three goals this season. Dallas checks in off a high-scoring game on Monday at home against the Blue Jackets. I don't think the Stars will be interested in a back-and-forth affair here in the first night of a back-to-back in Alberta. On the season, Dallas is allowing just 2.6 goals per game with that number dropping to 2.0 in three road contests. Take the under (8*). |
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11-01-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +3.5 | Top | 89-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. This spot sets up beautifully for the home underdog Timberwolves as they look to bring an end to the defending-champion Nuggets' perfect 4-0 start to the season. Minnesota checks in off an 'upset' road loss in Atlanta s it was crushed by 14 points on Monday. Of course, that was a letdown spot for the T'Wolves as they were fresh off a 16-point home win over the Heat two nights earlier. There's a playoff revenge angle in play here after Denver ousted Minnesota in five games in the opening round last April. That was after the T'Wolves managed to take both regular season meetings here in Minnesota. Note that Denver is a long-term 142-183 ATS when playing on the road off consecutive victories. In Minnesota's last 172 home games following an upset defeat it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 3.5 points. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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11-01-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Rangers held on for an 11-7 victory to push the Diamondbacks to the brink of elimination. This Game 5 matchup will feature a rematch of Game 1 of the series with Nathan Eovaldi going up against Zac Gallen. While Eovaldi has been a good luck charm for the Rangers in these playoffs (they've yet to lose with him on the mound), Gallen has struggled. I do think we'll see the latter rise to the occasion in this must-win game at home though, noting that his strikeout-to-walk ratio nearly doubles at home compared to on the road and he has recorded a sparkling 2.47 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 16 outings at Chase Field this season. There's been no real difference whether Eovaldi has been on the road or at home this season and while he didn't have his best stuff in the series-opener, he still struck out eight while walking only one in 4 2/3 innings of work. The bullpens were asked to take on a lot of mop-up duty last night. Here, I look for both teams relief corps' to lock right back in as this figures to be a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (8*). |
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11-01-23 | Wizards +8.5 v. Hawks | 121-130 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Wizards got drilled by 19 points last time out but that was against an elite Celtics squad that has come storming out of the gates this season. Here, I think Washington is catching Atlanta in a prime letdown spot with the Hawks fresh off consecutive double-digit wins to even their record at 2-2 on the season. Atlanta checks in a woeful 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games following an ATS win and 6-19 ATS in its last 25 contests after a home victory. The Hawks are also just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an outright underdog victory, which is the situation here after their home win over the Timberwolves as 2.5-point underdogs. Take Washington (8*). |
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11-01-23 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 224.5 | 111-130 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks are coming off a high-scoring game against the Heat on Monday. I expect a different story to unfold as they head to Toronto on Wednesday. The Raptors have lost three games in a row but there issues have been at the offensive end of the floor. They've actually seen the 'under' go 3-1 in their four games this season and they've held the opposition to 94, 104, 114 and 99 points. The Bucks have gotten off 82, 86 and 87 field goal attempts through three games so they're not exactly playing at a frenetic pace. They shot the lights out against the Heat on Monday but will be hard-pressed to do so on the road against the Raptors here. Toronto has allowed just one of four opponents to knock down more than 38 field goals this season. Note that the 'under' is 18-8 in the Bucks last 26 road games when coming off an ATS victory. Take the under (8*). |
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10-31-23 | Spurs v. Suns OVER 226.5 | 115-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The betting market continues to have a tough time figuring out the Suns as they continue on without Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Kevin Durant got plenty of help from his supporting cast in Phoenix's 126-104 rout of Utah on Saturday. The Suns draw another mouth-watering matchup on Tuesday as they host the Spurs, who just got dominated by a 123-83 score against the Clippers in Los Angeles on Sunday. There are going to be plenty of growing pains for this San Antonio squad. The Spurs have employed a matador-like defense through three games, allowing 47, 52 and 47 made field goals (to their credit the middle game was aided by overtime). I do think we see a bounce-back of sorts from the Spurs offense on Tuesday after they connected on just 30-of-80 field goal attempts on Sunday. Phoenix has held all three of its opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals this season yet has still given up 100 or more points in every contest. Note that the 'over' is a long-term 136-102 with the Spurs playing on the road after scoring 90 points or less in their previous game. Take the over (8*). |
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10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
World Series Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers gained the upper hand in this series last night as they jumped all over Diamondbacks rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt early and cruised to a 3-1 victory. I look for Arizona to answer back on Tuesday in what sets up as a battle of the bullpens. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the visiting Rangers but isn't likely to be given a long leash. He has pitched just 2 1/3 innings in the last two rounds of the playoffs, allowing six of the 13 batters he has faced to reach base. On the season, Heaney owns a very pedestrian 4.66 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. Reliever Joe Mantiply will counter for Arizona. Again, we can expect to see only an inning or so from the left-hander. I liked the way the D'Backs managed their bullpen in last night's defeat as they kept key arms like Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel and closer Paul Sewald fresh for Game 4 on Tuesday. As expected in a tight game playing with the lead, the Rangers used both setup man Aroldis Chapman and closer Jose Leclerc. The Rangers already accomplished their goal of at least getting this series back to Texas for a Game 6. Now the pressure is squarely on Arizona as it can ill afford to go down 3-1 against a team as good as Texas. The D'Backs have proven resilient throughout these playoffs and I look for them to answer the bell once again on Tuesday. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 214.5 | 109-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' cashed in all five games in last April's playoff series between these two teams. The Knicks also enter this contest off an incredibly low-scoring game against New Orleans on Saturday. With that being said, the contrarian in me believes we're in for a higher-scoring game than expected on Tuesday. Cleveland has been playing at a fast pace, hoisting up 94, 92 and 99 field goal attempts through three games. While Darius Garland remains sidelined, there's a chance Donovan Mitchell could return on Tuesday after sitting out the second of back-to-backs on Saturday. The Knicks have also played at a reasonably quick tempo, getting off 90 or more field goal attempts in all three games. Note that the 'over' is 30-18 in the Knicks last 48 games as a favorite including 1-0 this season. The 'over' also cashed in both regular season meetings between these two teams in 22-23. Take the over (8*). |
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10-30-23 | Warriors v. Pelicans -3 | 130-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Warriors picked up their second straight victory last night in Houston but now face a difficult three-in-four spot on the road against the revenge-minded Pelicans (Golden State took the last two meetings last season). New Orleans was idle on Sunday after improving to 2-0 on the season with a nine-point win over the Knicks on Saturday. Note that the Warriors had a tough enough time just getting shots off against the Rockets last night, attempting only 81 field goals (and making just 35 of them) in the victory. The Pelicans have allowed each of their first two opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts but have defended well, allowing just 38 and 33 makes in those two contests. On the flip side, New Orleans has made good on exactly 40 field goals in consecutive games despite playing at a reasonably slow pace. Here, we'll note that Golden State checks in a woeful 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road underdog of six points or less, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 8.9 points in that situation. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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10-30-23 | Rangers -104 v. Diamondbacks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Monday. It wasn't all that surprising to see the Diamondbacks rebound following their disheartening loss in Game 1 of this series. After all, the Snakes have been incredibly resilient throughout these playoffs and didn't want to go down the path of needing to rally from an 0-2 series deficit again the way they did last round. Here, I think it's advantage Rangers as the series shifts to Arizona for Game 3. Veteran Max Scherzer hasn't pitched particularly well in his two playoff starts this year, but he was certainly 'good enough' in the fifth and deciding game against the Astros last round as Texas rolled to an 11-4 victory. Scherzer has absolutely manhandled the current Diamondbacks roster, holding them to a collective 16-for-103 (.155) with 39 strikeouts and eight walks. Meanwhile, D'Backs rookie Brandon Pfaadt has impressed in his four playoff starts but he faces a tall task here as the current Rangers roster torched the right-hander in a regular season matchup, hitting a combined 9-for-19 (.474) with four home runs and only three strikeouts. Take Texas (8*). |
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10-30-23 | Rangers v. Jets UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 102 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Winnipeg at 7:35 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring overtime affairs on Saturday with the Rangers prevailing in Vancouver and the Jets losing in Montreal. This is a low total by today's NHL standards but I don't believe it will prove low enough. Note that each of the last five matchups in this series has produced five goals or less. The Jets got off to a brutal start defensively this season allowing 19 goals in their first four games but they've since turned it around, yielding just just eight goals in regulation time over their last four contests. Meanwhile, the Rangers have given up just five goals in the first four games of their current road trip and have held an incredible five of eight opponents to a single goal or less this season. Take the under (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Spurs v. Clippers -8.5 | 83-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Antonio at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs picked up their first win of the Victor Wembanyama era by way of overtime at home against the Rockets two nights ago, but they needed overtime to get it. San Antonio has played about as well as you could expect offensively, knocking down exactly 46 field goals in each contest. The problem is, the Spurs also allowed a whopping 47 and 52 made field goals in those two games and now they hit the road for the first time to face a Clippers squad that will be in a foul mood after dropping a two-point decision as a road favorite in Utah on Friday. The Clippers have actually been about as efficient as any team in the league offensively through two games, shooting better than 52% from the field. They figure to go off here, noting they scored 113, 119, 131 and 138 points in four matchups in this series last season. The Spurs check in a woeful 14-27 ATS in their last 41 games as a road underdog. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Sharks +190 v. Capitals | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose over Washington at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. The Sharks have yet to win a game this season. They win on Sunday as they head to Washington to face the suddenly-surging Capitals. Note that Washington checks in 12-18 when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons. They're also 9-20 when playing at home after securing two wins in their last three games over the same stretch, outscored by 0.5 goals on average in that situation. The road team has gone a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series. Take San Jose (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Bengals v. 49ers OVER 43.5 | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way the Bengals set up in this game as they look to avenge a 2021 home loss against the 49ers. With that being said, I have plenty of respect for the oddsmakers and believe the 49ers are favored by nearly a touchdown for a reason on Sunday afternoon. So that leaves us well-positioned for points on the board as the Bengals check in healthy off their bye week and the 49ers appear in better shape back at home with QB Brock Purdy having shaken off the possible concussion he suffered on Monday against Minnesota. Speaking of injuries, 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey looked no worse for wear on Monday and he'll be up against a Cincinnati defense that has been Charmin-soft against the run this season, yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush. San Francisco would be well-suited to employ a quick-strike offensive gameplan with Trent Williams likely to sit once again. Getting the ball out quickly will be paramount for Brock Purdy but keep in mind, the Bengals defense is loaded with ball hawks in the secondary, capable of leading to splash plays that either put points directly on the scoreboard or lead to short fields for a very capable Cincinnati offense. I think this is a game Bengals QB Joe Burrow has had circled. As I mentioned, the last time these two teams met in 2021, Burrow threw for 348 yards and two touchdowns in a 26-23 home loss against a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers squad. Of note, Deebo Samuel ran the football eight times for 37 yards and a touchdown in that game but was rendered ineffective in the passing game. Samuel won't play on Sunday but McCaffrey can certainly fill the void out of the backfield. The duo of George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk went off for 19 (yes 19!) catches for 213 yards and two touchdowns in that 2021 meeting. Take the over (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Browns v. Seahawks -3.5 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Really tough spot for the Browns here after they 'left it all on the field' in last week's wild, high-scoring win in Indianapolis. The Seahawks had what amounted to a scrimmage at home against the Cardinals and should be no worse for wear entering this game. In fact, Seattle is expected to be stronger with WR D.K. Metcalf likely to return. The Browns lost key backup RB Jerome Ford last week so it's the Kareem Hunt show this Sunday. That's not to mention the fact that QB P.J. Walker with his pop-gun arm will remain under center against a ball-hawking Seahawks secondary. Take Seattle (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week and that's led to this total being bet up a few points since opening. I believe it's a move in the wrong direction. The Saints have aired it out 50+ times in consecutive weeks. That's not how this offense is built as head coach Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr are as risk-averse as it gets. I do expect the Saints to find some success in this game but road teams haven't been running away and hiding on the Colts here in Indianapolis this season with their four home games all decided by 10 points or less. Indy put up a whopping 38 points against Cleveland last Sunday but I'm not counting on a repeat performance. After turning the football over four times in each of the last two weeks, there's reason to believe we'll see Shane Steichen's Colts scale back their offensive gameplan for QB Garnder Minshew against an elite Saints defense on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-23 | Rams v. Cowboys -6.5 | 20-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think the Cowboys are in a smash spot here at home on Sunday as they host a Rams squad that feels it was wronged in last week's home defeat against the Steelers. Dallas checks in off its bye week following an uplifting 20-17 road win over the Chargers. While the Cowboys are dealing with some key injuries on the defensive side of the football, I'm confident we'll see their offense feast on Sunday. One of the Rams bright spots this season was RB Kyren Williams but he's now sidelined. While the Los Angeles aerial attack does boast a terrific 1-2 punch in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, I'm willing to bet on the Cowboys secondary (and pass rush) to neutralize the Rams offense this week. Dallas allowed a season-high 22 pass completions in its most recent game against the Chargers but still gave up only 219 passing yards. It's all systems go for the Cowboys offense this Sunday and the Rams defense is no longer a unit to fear. Last year, Dallas took this same matchup by 12 points with Cooper Rush at quarterback. While the Cowboys are in a look-ahead spot with the Eagles on deck, that's not an angle I generally put much stock in. Take Dallas (8*). |
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10-29-23 | Texans v. Panthers +3.5 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers bye week couldn't have come at a better time as they were 0-6 to start the season and have had a chance to regroup ahead of this matchup with the upstart Texans. I don't think there's much at all separating these two teams but here we are catching north of a field goal with the Panthers, at home no less. Houston has reeled off three wins in its last four games, going a perfect 4-0 ATS along the way. Like the Panthers, the Texans are also coming off their bye week but the difference is it came at a bad time as they were rolling heading in. It's not often you see a team deliver consecutive ATS wins in games where it scored 20 points or less but that's the case with Houston entering this contest. Carolina has faced a brutal schedule since Week 3, travelling to Seattle before hosting winless (at the time) Minnesota and then hitting the road to face the Lions and Dolphins, two teams that are likely to reach the postseason. Noting that Houston is a long-term 21-37 ATS off an outright underdog victory, look for Carolina to prevail on Sunday. Take Carolina (8*). |
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10-28-23 | UNLV +9.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. UNLV has a good thing going this season even if few are paying much attention. The Runnin' Rebels have already gained Bowl eligibility with their sixth win of the season coming last week against Colorado State. They've got their sights set on much bigger goals, however, as they go after an elusive Mountain West Conference title. Taking down Fresno State, which checks in with an identical 6-1 record this season, would certainly be a step in the right direction. Note that while the Rebels have lost five straight matchups in this series, they've been right there in each of the last two seasons, losing by just eight and seven points. This year's UNLV squad is arguably much better than both of those teams, yet it isn't being offered much respect in the betting marketplace. Fresno State has beaten up on some awful teams this season and also lost a game as a five-point favorite on the road against Wyoming. The Bulldogs marquee win came back in Week 1 on the road against Purdue as QB Mikey Keene balled out with nearly 400 yards passing and four touchdowns. His status remains up in the air for this game as he continues to recover from injury. Backup Logan Fife has performed admirably in his absence but he's not the same playmaker Keene is. Regardless who is under center for Fresno State on Saturday, I believe UNLV has the personnel to keep pace. Put the Bulldogs on 'upset alert' as we grab all the points we can get with the Rebels. Take UNLV (10*). |
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10-28-23 | Bulls -1 v. Pistons | 102-118 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors let the Bulls off the hook last night as Chicago blew a big second quarter lead, trailed by a wide margin late before tying it up on a parade to the free throw line and ultimately winning by a single point in overtime. Off that shaky performance, I look for a much sharper four quarter effort from the Bulls on Saturday in Detroit. The Pistons won outright as 4.5-point underdogs in Charlotte last night - their second straight ATS win to open the campaign. Detroit's first two opponents struggled to knock down their shots but I'm willing to chalk that up more as early season rust rather than the Pistons defensive prowess. Chicago has owned this series in Motown in recent years and I look for it to continue its dominance here. Take Chicago (8*). |
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10-28-23 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 47.5 | Top | 35-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Utah at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week - in the last two weeks, in fact. I expect a reversal of course here on Saturday as the Ducks travel to face the Utes. Oregon has looked downright unstoppable at times this season but Washington State actually managed to lay out a pretty good blueprint for slowing the Ducks high-powered offense for the better part of the first half last week. I expect the Utes, who own one of the best defenses in the nation, to turn in a strong performance here at home, where they've allowed just 39 points in four games this season. Note that last year the Utes travelled to Autzen Stadium and limited the Ducks to just 20 points in a three-point defeat. On the flip side, the Ducks defense doesn't get nearly the credit or attention it deserves, largely due to the team's electric offense. Favored on the road, there's nothing for Oregon's defense to fear with the Utes still dealing with inconsistent play at the quarterback position. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-23 | Georgia -14 v. Florida | 43-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Florida at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. The injury to Georgia TE Brock Bowers seems to have a lot of bettors a little spooked as we head into this pre-Halloween rivalry tilt between the Bulldogs and Gators in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs have been a massive disappointment from a betting perspective this season, going 1-5-1 ATS to date but I look for them to shake loose for a convincing victory on Saturday. Florida is coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins - those were much-needed following a modest 3-2 start to the campaign. But the Gators bye week probably came at the worst time and now they need to get rolling from a standing start against arguably the best team in the country. Note that Georgia has dominated Florida lately, taking the last three meetings by 16, 27 and 22 points. I don't think there's any reason to believe this edition of the Gators can keep things any closer, even if the oddsmakers anticipate otherwise. Note that only two of Georgia's seven games to date have been decided by fewer than 17 points. Take Georgia (8*). |
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10-27-23 | Clippers v. Jazz +3.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this play sets up as bettors overreact to season-opening results from these two teams. The Clippers turned in a near-flawless performance but that was at home against what projects to be one of the league's worst teams in the Blazers. Meanwhile, the Jazz dropped a lopsided decision at home but that was against one of the league's true up-and-coming teams in the Kings. I look for the script to flip on Friday night, noting that Utah is a long-term 42-14 straight-up at home against Los Angeles including four straight wins going back to the start of the 2021-22 season. This is one of those tough one-game road trips for the Clippers, in altitude no less, before they return home for winnable games against the Spurs and Magic on Sunday and Tuesday. Should the Jazz fall again here, they'll be starting at a very tough start with a two-game trip to Phoenix and Denver on deck. Take Utah (10*). |
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10-27-23 | Raptors v. Bulls -2 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Toronto at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Bulls on Friday as they look to split their season-opening two-game homestand after dropping their first game by 20 points against Oklahoma City. The Thunder quite simply shot the lights out in that game. Chicago actually held Oklahoma City to only 82 field goal attempts but it made good on 45 of them. If the Bulls can limit the pace again here they should be in good shape, noting the Raptors knocked down just 36-of-90 field goal attempts in their three-point win over Minnesota on Wednesday. In that contest, the Raptors allowed the Timberwolves to hoist up a whopping 101 FG attempts. Needless to say, Minnesota didn't make the most of its opportunities, connecting on only 34. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series with the Bulls being the lone team to grab the cash on the road (in the most recent matchup between these teams last April) over that stretch. Here, we'll note that Chicago is 26-14 ATS when playing consecutive home games over the last two seasons and 35-19 ATS in the role of home favorite over the last three seasons. Toronto is a woeful 10-24 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 100 points or less over the last three seasons. Take Chicago (8*). |
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10-27-23 | Wild +113 v. Capitals | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Wild dropped an ugly 6-2 decision in Philadelphia last night but I look for them to bounce back as they make the short trip to Washington to face the Capitals on Friday. The Caps should be a welcome sight at the other end of the rink given the Wild have gone a perfect 4-0 against them over the last two seasons and have come away victorious in three straight trips to the Nation's Capital. Washington pulled off a stunning 6-4 victory over the Devils two nights ago, successfully rallying with three unanswered goals in the third period after blowing a 3-0 lead in the second. That puts the Caps in a poor situation here as they're just 2-9 in their last 11 games following a road win by two goals or more and 1-8 in their last nine contests after scoring six goals or more in their previous game. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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10-26-23 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 229 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams saw their respective season openers stay 'under' the total but I expect a different story to unfold as the Suns and Lakers match up in Los Angeles on Thursday. The Suns actually allowed Golden State to get off a whopping 101 field goal attempts on Tuesday but the Warriors couldn't make the most of their opportunities, knocking down only 36 of those attempts in a four-point loss. Meanwhile, Phoenix played with pace (95 field goal attempts) and shot reasonably well (42 made field goals), even with key offseason acquisition Bradley Beal sidelined (he's questionable to play on Thursday as well). The Lakers limited Denver to just 91 FG attempts on Tuesday but the Nuggets had little trouble against L.A.'s sieve-like defense, connecting on 48 of those shot attempts. I did come away impressed with the Lakers ability to at least match the Nuggets tempo (91 FG attempts). They simply had an off night shooting - something I expect them to rectify in their home-opener on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 17-5 with the Suns coming off a victory over a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 233.5 points in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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10-26-23 | Syracuse +3 v. Virginia Tech | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Orange have gone into a tailspin since their 4-0 start, dropping each of their last three games. Of course, they've run the gauntlet lately going up against Clemson, North Carolina and Florida State and won't get any sort of a breather travelling to Blacksburg to face the Hokies on Thursday. I do like their chances of rebounding here, however, with many of their key parts still on board from the 2021 team that prevailed by a 41-36 score in Blacksburg almost two years to the day. If there was one positive for Syracuse to take away from its ugly 41-3 rout at the hands of Florida State last time out it was that it kept Seminoles QB Jordan Travis' running under wraps. That at least gave the Orange a good sense of the speed they'll be facing at quarterback this week in the form of Hokies dual-threat QB Kyron Drones. Virginia Tech is coming off a 30-13 win over Wake Forest - a game in which Drones threw for over 300 yards. That's certainly not his game, noting that it was the first time this season he threw for more than 228 yards. If Drones tries to attack the Orange too often through the air in this one he's likely to be punished for any mistakes by the outstanding DB duo of Alijah Clark and Justin Barron who have inexplicably produced just two interceptions so far this season. Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader has been sacked a whopping nine times during the team's current three-game losing streak. I do think the extra week of practice should work in his favor here as the Orange offensive line certainly had some issues that needed to be worked out. I would anticipate the Orange getting Shrader on the move more than we've seen in recent weeks after he got bogged down by tough North Carolina and Florida State defenses over the last couple of games. The Hokies defensive front poses a difficult challenge as well but at least Shrader has played (and succeeded) in this environment before - he threw for 236 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 174 yards and three scores in that 2021 matchup on this field. Take Syracuse (8*). |
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10-26-23 | Avalanche v. Penguins +123 | 0-4 | Win | 123 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Colorado at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Penguins let the Stars off the hook on Tuesday, outshooting them 18-9 in the first period but only managing to find the back of the net once before Dallas responded with four unanswered goals in the second and third periods. That marked Pittsburgh's third straight loss following a 2-1 start. I look for the Pens to bounce back on Thursday as they host the undefeated Avalanche. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh did take both matchups in this series last season, outscoring Colorado by a combined 7-3 score. While the Avs continue to pile up victories, they've proven vulnerable at the back-end lately, allowing eight goals over their last two games. Note that they're 0-7 after allowing four goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by 2.4 goals on average in that situation. Also note that Colorado has averaged just 3.1 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring five or more goals in its previous game (185-game sample size). I'm not convinced that will be enough on Thursday as I like the bounce-back spot for the Pens as they continue their four-game homestand. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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10-25-23 | UTEP v. Sam Houston State OVER 36.5 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Sam Houston State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I think UTEP 'under' bettors have been lulled into a false sense of security after they reeled off three consecutive 'under' results. Tonight's opponent, winless Sam Houston State, has found a little something offensively in recent games with QB Keegan Shoemaker showing signs of progress, throwing for six touchdowns and just two interceptions while running for 124 yards over the last three games. The Bearkats haven't stuck with the run at all this season but figure to feast on a UTEP defense that has hemorrhaged 5.1 yards per rush this season if they so choose. Sam Houston State's defense hasn't lived up to expectations this season, part of that has been due to simply being on the field way too much thanks to an inefficient offense. Miners RB Deion Hankins has gotten better as the season has gone on, rushing for 265 yards over the last three games and I expect him to be the focal point of the offense here as well. While run plays are generally an 'under' bettors best friend, I think there's a good chance UTEP runs all over the Sam Houston State defense on Wednesday. Sitting at 0-7 on the campaign, the Bearkats certainly haven't learned how to 'take the air out of the football' playing with a lead at this level (it's their first year in FBS) and I feel that lends itself to a back-and-forth affair that creeps 'over' the low posted total on Wednesday. Take the over (8*). |
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10-25-23 | Capitals +220 v. Devils | 6-4 | Win | 220 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New Jersey at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We're seeing a similar trend developing to what we saw last season from the Devils as they played exceptionally well on the road (28-13) but were only average at home (24-17). So far this season, New Jersey is 1-2 in Newark but a perfect 2-0 on the road after last night's 5-2 victory in Montreal. Nothing has gone right for the Capitals so far this season as they check in 1-4, fresh off another lopsided defeat at the hands of the Leafs last night. I will get behind Washington on Wednesday, however, as it draws this divisional matchup, noting that it has taken six of the last seven meetings between these two teams in Newark. The Devils have been playing a lot looser than they probably would like with the 'over' having cashed in all five of their games to date. They've given up 11 goals in three home games this season. I think that opens the door for the slumping Capitals offense here - a team desperate to break out after being held to just seven goals in its first five games. Take Washington (8*). |
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10-25-23 | Hawks -2.5 v. Hornets | 110-116 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. When it comes to most sports, I don't put a great deal of stock into preseason results. I generally make an exception when it comes to the NBA, however. There's more of a tendency to see regular rotations, even if the starters aren't playing regular minutes, and we can get a feel for the way teams will play once the regular season commences. Here, we'll lay the points with the Hawks as they open their campaign against the Hornets in Charlotte. Atlanta had a productive preseason, going 3-2 while limiting opponents to 86, 89, 81, 83 and 86 field goal attempts. The Hornets on the other hand got off 93, 94, 88 and 88 FG attempts in their four preseason contests but knocked down 37 or fewer of those attempts in three of those games. In fact, the only game where they were able to get anything going offensively they were facing Oklahoma City's 'B' squad (Charlotte used most of its regular starters and shot 52% from the field and still won by only two points). Atlanta does enter this game with 'double revenge' having dropped its last two meetings with Charlotte last season. Note that the Hornets haven't won three straight matchups in this series since posting five straight victories over the Hawks from 2017 to 2018. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-21-23 | Tennessee +3.5 v. Purdue | 67-71 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
11-21-23 | Pacers +4.5 v. Hawks | Top | 157-152 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
11-21-23 | Bowling Green -1 v. Western Michigan | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
11-20-23 | Rockets v. Warriors -7.5 | 116-121 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
11-20-23 | Kings v. Coyotes +131 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 35 m | Show | |
11-20-23 | Eagles +3 v. Chiefs | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
11-20-23 | Florida State v. UNLV +4 | 83-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
11-19-23 | Magic v. Pacers -4.5 | 128-116 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
11-19-23 | Seahawks +2 v. Rams | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
11-19-23 | Cardinals +6 v. Texans | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
11-19-23 | Cowboys v. Panthers +11 | 33-10 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
11-19-23 | Steelers v. Browns -2 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
11-18-23 | Washington v. Oregon State | Top | 22-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 4 m | Show |
11-18-23 | UNLV v. Air Force -3 | 31-27 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 45 m | Show | |
11-18-23 | Utah v. Arizona UNDER 46.5 | Top | 18-42 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
11-17-23 | Rockets v. Clippers -6 | 100-106 | Push | 0 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
11-17-23 | Colorado v. Washington State -4.5 | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 51 h 33 m | Show | |
11-16-23 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
11-16-23 | Lightning -1.5 v. Blackhawks | 4-2 | Win | 135 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
11-15-23 | Kings +1.5 v. Lakers | 125-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
11-15-23 | Wolves v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
11-15-23 | Knicks -1 v. Hawks | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
11-15-23 | Cornell +3.5 v. George Mason | 83-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
11-14-23 | Wolves v. Warriors -1.5 | 104-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
11-14-23 | Kentucky +6 v. Kansas | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
11-14-23 | Mavs v. Pelicans UNDER 240 | 110-131 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
11-14-23 | Bruins -150 v. Sabres | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
11-14-23 | Duke v. Michigan State OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
11-13-23 | Avalanche -143 v. Seattle Kraken | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills -7 | 24-22 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
11-12-23 | Heat v. Spurs +2 | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
11-12-23 | Commanders v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
11-12-23 | Lions -3 v. Chargers | 41-38 | Push | 0 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
11-12-23 | 49ers v. Jaguars OVER 45 | Top | 34-3 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
11-11-23 | Florida +15 v. LSU | 35-52 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
11-11-23 | Hurricanes v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
11-11-23 | Washington State +2.5 v. California | Top | 39-42 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
11-11-23 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin UNDER 43 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
11-11-23 | Texas Southern v. Arizona State -14.5 | 52-63 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
11-10-23 | Wyoming v. UNLV -5.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 64 h 41 m | Show |
11-10-23 | Thunder v. Kings +2.5 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
11-10-23 | Lakers v. Suns OVER 222.5 | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
11-10-23 | Hornets +2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
11-10-23 | Arizona v. Duke OVER 153.5 | 78-73 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
11-09-23 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 233 | 120-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
11-09-23 | Virginia v. Louisville -20 | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 47 m | Show | |
11-09-23 | Wild v. Rangers UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 104 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
11-08-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets -3 | 105-108 | Push | 0 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
11-08-23 | Kings v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
11-08-23 | Lakers -2.5 v. Rockets | 94-128 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
11-07-23 | Penguins v. Ducks UNDER 6.5 | 2-0 | Win | 107 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
11-07-23 | Northern Iowa v. North Texas UNDER 129.5 | 77-83 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
11-06-23 | Pelicans +6 v. Nuggets | 116-134 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
11-06-23 | Chargers v. Jets +3.5 | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
11-06-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -145 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
11-05-23 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Blazers | Top | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
11-05-23 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
11-05-23 | Cowboys v. Eagles -3 | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
11-05-23 | Seahawks v. Ravens UNDER 44 | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
11-05-23 | Dolphins v. Chiefs OVER 50 | 14-21 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 5 m | Show | |
11-04-23 | Stanford v. Washington State -13 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
11-04-23 | Florida State v. Pittsburgh +21.5 | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
11-04-23 | Arizona State v. Utah -11 | 3-55 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
11-03-23 | Mavs v. Nuggets OVER 226.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
11-03-23 | Boston College v. Syracuse UNDER 51 | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
11-02-23 | Magic v. Jazz | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
11-02-23 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins -109 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
11-02-23 | TCU v. Texas Tech OVER 59.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
11-01-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
11-01-23 | Stars v. Flames UNDER 6 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
11-01-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +3.5 | Top | 89-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
11-01-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
11-01-23 | Wizards +8.5 v. Hawks | 121-130 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
11-01-23 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 224.5 | 111-130 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
10-31-23 | Spurs v. Suns OVER 226.5 | 115-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
10-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 214.5 | 109-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
10-30-23 | Warriors v. Pelicans -3 | 130-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
10-30-23 | Rangers -104 v. Diamondbacks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
10-30-23 | Rangers v. Jets UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 102 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
10-29-23 | Spurs v. Clippers -8.5 | 83-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
10-29-23 | Sharks +190 v. Capitals | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
10-29-23 | Bengals v. 49ers OVER 43.5 | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
10-29-23 | Browns v. Seahawks -3.5 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
10-29-23 | Rams v. Cowboys -6.5 | 20-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
10-29-23 | Texans v. Panthers +3.5 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
10-28-23 | UNLV +9.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
10-28-23 | Bulls -1 v. Pistons | 102-118 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
10-28-23 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 47.5 | Top | 35-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
10-28-23 | Georgia -14 v. Florida | 43-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
10-27-23 | Clippers v. Jazz +3.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
10-27-23 | Raptors v. Bulls -2 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
10-27-23 | Wild +113 v. Capitals | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
10-26-23 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 229 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
10-26-23 | Syracuse +3 v. Virginia Tech | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
10-26-23 | Avalanche v. Penguins +123 | 0-4 | Win | 123 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
10-25-23 | UTEP v. Sam Houston State OVER 36.5 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
10-25-23 | Capitals +220 v. Devils | 6-4 | Win | 220 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
10-25-23 | Hawks -2.5 v. Hornets | 110-116 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 12 m | Show |