Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-22-21 | Wings +1.5 v. Sun | 70-80 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Connecticut at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Wings are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the WNBA right now while Connecticut is just trying to keep its footing without its best player, Jonquel Jones. Regression was always going to be coming for Connecticut whether Jones got hurt or not. The Sun got off to a tremendous start this season but have now lost three games in a row and five of their last seven overall. Without a true go-to scorer they've struggled to keep up with the league's better teams. Tonight's game should be no different. We won with Dallas in its most recent game - a 95-77 rout of the Lynx on Saturday. The Wings are getting production from all over the floor right now, including off the bench. With Arike Ogunbowale in a bit of a shooting slump, others have picked up the slack, most notably Marina Mabrey, who poured in 28 points on 9-of-13 shooting off the bench on Saturday. While she's unlikely to turn in that type of performance again tonight, I do expect a bounce-back of sorts from the duo of Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally, with the latter scoring just seven points in 15 minutes on Saturday. The Sun leaned heavily on their defensive play early in the season but have struggled in that regard lately. On the season, they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 46% from the field here at home. With Dallas playing at a fast pace that spells trouble for the Sun on Tuesday. By contrast, the Wings have held opponents to 42% shooting on the road and have held four of their last six opponents to 41.4% shooting or worse. Take Dallas (10*). |
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06-22-21 | England v. Czech Republic UNDER 2.25 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Czech Republic and England at 3 pm et on Tuesday. England hasn't looked all that creative on attack in its first two matches in this tournament, managing just a single goal - that coming in the second half of its opener against Croatia. Here, I expect the Three Lions to find life rather difficult once again as they face a Czech Republic squad that has been tough to break down in this tournament so far. The lone blemish on the Czech record came by way of a 1-1 draw against Croatia last time out. That result could be looked at as a success of course as it assured the Czech's of advancement to the knockout stage of the tournament thanks to a previous 2-0 win over Scotland. The only goal we've seen the Czech Republic allow in this tournament came on an incredible solo effort from Croatia's Ivan Perisic. England, however, has shown few glimpses of such ability here in this tournament with striker Harry Kane struggling to find much open field. We're likely to see some changes to the England lineup on Tuesday but I'm not expecting those changes to suddenly open the floodgates. Keep in mind, while first place in the group is up for grabs in this match, I'm not convinced that either side will be overly interested as that placing likely results in a matchup with one of the three top-flight squads in the 'Group of Death' (France, Germany and Portugal are likely the three to advance in that group). That's not to say we'll see both sides sit back on their heels in this one, but I'm not anticipating a free-flowing affair either. Take the under 2.5 goals (10*). |
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06-21-21 | Dodgers v. Padres -124 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. |
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06-21-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the Brewers 7-6 win over the Rockies yesterday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their road trip against the reeling D'Backs in Arizona. Brett Anderson will take the ball for the Brewers. He's coming off a surprisingly strong start against the Reds, tossing seven shutout innings. That was at home, however. He's been awful on the road this season, posting a 5.47 ERA and 1.46 WHIP while averaging just 3.5 innings per start. The fact that he hasn't been able to work deep into ball games doesn't bode well given the Brewers overworked bullpen hasn't had a day off in two weeks and checks in sporting a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.59 WHIP with two converted saves to go along with two blown over their last seven games. The D'Backs have already faced Anderson once this season, chasing him after just 4 1/3 innings, scoring three earned runs on eight hits and striking out only once. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. The Brewers have seen him three times since the start of the 2019 season, including once this year. In their last two games against Kelly they've hit him hard, scoring 10 earned runs on 14 hits, including three home runs, in just 10 1/3 innings. Kelly owns a 5.19 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 11 nighttime starts this season. Working behind Kelly is an awful D'Backs bullpen that has posted a collective 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only three converted saves and four blown here at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-21-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -183 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We've had a pretty good read on this series so far, winning with the 'under' in Game 1, the Lightning in Game 2, the 'under' in Game 3 and 'pushing' with the 'over' in Game 4. Here, I'll go back to the well with the Lightning as they're set up well returning home off a loss in Game 4. The Lightning are of course a dominant home team, having gone 25-10, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 goals on average here at Amalie Arena this season. Note that Tampa Bay has posted an incredible 59-22 record when coming off a loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.1 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Islanders average only 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road following a win this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that situation. The Isles have certainly been a different team on the road this season, where they've gone 16-20 and average only 2.2 goals per contest. I expect them to have a tough time keeping pace with the high-powered Lightning offense, back home in a bounce-back spot here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-21-21 | Indians v. Cubs -135 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Monday. While both of these teams 'avoided the sweep' with narrow victories on Sunday, it's the Cubs that are better-positioned to keep the positive momentum building here at home on Monday night. Cleveland was red hot before dropping two of three games against the lowly Pirates in Pittsburgh. Keep in mind, the Indians have been a weaker team on the road compared to at home, checking in just two games above .500 in the visitors' role this season. Similarly, the Cubs have been much better here at Wrigley Field, where they're an impressive 25-12 on the season. With all of that being said, perhaps it's not surprising that the Indians swept a short two-game series with the Cubs in Cleveland back in May. Aaron Civale will take the ball for the Indians on Monday. He's pitched poorly in three of his last four starts and now finds himself in a difficult situation, starting on just four days' rest for the second straight outing. We're bound to see some regression when it comes to Civale's incredible 10-2 team record in 12 starts this season. And it should come sooner rather than later given the fact that he's been tagged for 13 earned runs in 25 innings of work over his last four starts. Behind Civale is a good Indians bullpen, but one that has been better at home than on the road. The Cleveland 'pen entered yesterday's action sporting a 3.99 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season. Adbert Alzolay will counter for Chicago. Unlike Civale, he won't be dealing with a potentially 'tired arm' here as he hasn't started a game since June 7th due to a blister issue. Alzolay was in a similarly poor situation to Civale in his most recent outing, pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start. Perhaps it should come as no surprise that he struggled in that start against the Padres (who were seeing him for the second time in five days), allowing four earned runs in just three innings. Alzolay has been sharp here at home this season, guiding the Cubs to a 4-2 record in six previous starts while posting a 3.56 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The Cubs bullpen has been as good as it gets here at home this season, recording a 2.57 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown (entering yesterday's action). Expect them to shut the door on any potential comeback attempts by the Indians here tonight. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-21-21 | Netherlands v. North Macedonia OVER 3 | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Netherlands and North Macedonia at 12 noon et on Monday. |
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06-20-21 | Golden Knights -174 v. Canadiens | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. I can understand bettors being a little nervous backing the Golden Knights given the way they've played the last two games. However, the fact is they just as easily could have won Game 3 of this series were it not for Marc-Andre Fleury's gaffe playing the puck late in the third period. I fully expect to see Vegas bounce back here on Sunday. Note that the Knights are 12-2 when playing on the road after allowing three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, averaging 3.7 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. They're also an incredible 28-8 when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, Montreal is just 11-20 after winning four of its last five games over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. Finally, the Habs are 6-12 when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals. This is by no means a 'must-win game' for the Golden Knights but the prospect of breaking down the Habs in three straight games given the confidence Montreal is playing with right now would certainly be daunting. Look for the Knights to respond on Sunday night. Take Vegas (10*). |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 216 | 103-96 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. This is the lowest total we've seen in this series so far. I believe it will prove too low. The Hawks have held the 76ers to 46.7% shooting or worse in three straight games but I think this is a game where they struggle to 'hold onto the rope' so to speak. Philadelphia is a better offensive team than it has shown over the last few games, averaging 117.9 points per game here at home this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-12 with the 76ers playing at home off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 222.3 points. The 'over' is also 15-5 with the 76ers at home off an ATS victory, with that situation producing an average total of 231.8 points. Meanwhile, the Hawks have shot 47.6% or worse in five straight games since opening this series with a 51.2% shooting performance in a 128-124 victory. Atlanta really has nothing to lose in this one as few gave it any legitimate shot at winning this series from the outset. There's little reason for the Hawks to hold anything back and should they fall behind, we can expect them to shift into 'hack-a-Ben' mode in an effort to extend this game. Take the over (10*). |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | 103-96 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Atlanta at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 76ers (moneyline) in Game 6 of this series and I won't hesitate to come right back with them again as they host Game 7 against the Hawks on Sunday night. Atlanta had its chance to close out this series on its home floor and came up just short on Friday night. Now I suspect it is going to have a tough time getting back up and keeping this game competitive on Sunday night. The 76ers have been a terrific home team all season, going 33-9 SU and 25-16 ATS here in Philadelphia, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.1 points. While the Hawks check in 6-18 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12.5 points over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15.7 points. On the flip side, the 76ers are 30-20 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.5 points. Better still, Philadelphia has gone 22-8 ATS when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.9 points. This series should probably already be over for all intents and purposes given the way the 76ers coughed up Game 5 on their home floor. Look for them to turn in one of their best performances of the series as they close out the Hawks in convincing fashion on Sunday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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06-20-21 | White Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We've won with the Astros in each of the last two games but I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as they close out their series with the White Sox on Sunday. Dallas Keuchel will get the nod for Chicago. He's rounded into form over his last three starts, posting a stellar 1.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 19 innings of work. Keuchel has been solid in six road starts this season, recording a 3.37 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Interestingly, he's never faced his former team, the Astros, perhaps giving him a bit of an advantage here. Behind Keuchel is a White Sox bullpen that has held its own in day games this season, posting a collective 4.04 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 10 converted saves compared to only four blown. Lance McCullers Jr. will counter for Houston. We missed with the 'under' in his last start, only thanks to extra innings (that game was 2-1 in the ninth inning but ended 6-3 to go 'over' by half a run). That was his first start back off the I.L. and while he wasn't overly effective, he pitched well enough to keep the Rangers bats at bay into the fifth inning. I expect him to get stretched out a little more here. Note that he has recorded a 3.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in six home starts this season. The White Sox faced him twice during the 2018 season and weren't able to figure him out, scoring just two earned runs in 13 innings. Of course that can be taken with a grain of salt as we're talking about a largely different White Sox lineup today. Behind McCullers is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out lately, and entered last night's game sporting a collective 3.68 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season with seven converted saves compared to just three blown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-20-21 | Wales v. Italy UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Euro Group Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Italy and Wales at 12 noon et on Sunday. After we won with the 'over' in Italy's tournament debut against Turkey we cashed with the Azzurri but missed with our free play on the 'under' in their 3-0 victory over Switzerland last time out. Here, I'm confident we'll finally see a match involving Italy total less than three goals as they take on Wales with both sides looking for little more than a tune-up leading up to the knockout stage. At least seven changes are expected to Italy's starting lineup. The Azzurri are obviously a deep squad but there's no question we're going to see a drop-off in execution, particularly at their opponent's end of the pitch with the likes of Immobile, Barella and Insigne likely on the bench. Even Chiesa, who made a late entrance into the match against Switzerland may start this contest on the sideline. For Wales, it is coming off a somewhat improbable 2-0 victory over Turkey that all but assured it advancement to the next round. After looking rather punchless in its tournament opener against Switzerland, a game they somehow managed to draw 1-1, the Welsh did show much more promise against Turkey. Now that they have four points under their belt, however, we're unlikely to see the same type of fire from the Welsh here. Lineup changes are almost a certainty and the fact that they're such a sizable underdog against what is essentially Italy's 'B' squad is telling in my opinion. A 2-0 result is the most likely outcome in this contest. With that being said, a 0-0 or 1-1 result is well within the realm of possibility as well should Italy show no interest in playing for keeps. Take the under (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Rays -134 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. After a wild 6-5 contest in favor of the Mariners on Thursday (we lost with the Rays in that walk-off defeat) we saw the M's prevail again by a 5-1 score last night. Here, I look for a well-pitched game from the Rays as they try to get one back in Seattle. Left-hander Josh Fleming returns to the Rays rotation to make the start on Saturday - his first since getting roughed up in Texas back on June 4th. In five starts this season, Fleming has been solid, having posted a 2.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with the 'under' cashing in three of those five contests. He has averaged just shy of six innings per start in three nighttime outings, recording a 3.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Also note that his hard-hit ball percentage hovers right around 35% this season, considerably better than the MLB average. Behind Fleming is a Rays bullpen that did blow Thursday's game but has generally been sharp this season, posting a collective 3.39 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 13 converted save opportunities compared to only five blown on the road. Over their last seven games, Rays relievers have combined to record a minuscule 0.60 ERA and 0.57 WHIP. Logan Gilbert will get the nod for the Mariners. He's admittedly been much better over his last three starts after a shaky beginning to his big league career. Interestingly, he's pitched much better in his second start against an opponent than he has in his first. Here, he'll be facing the Rays for the first time. Note that Gilbert will be facing a Rays lineup that has been much better against right-handers this season, averaging 5.5 runs per game against RH starting pitching. Perhaps most concerning is Gilbert's 48.8% hard-hit ball percentage, not to mention his line drive and fly ball percentages which both sit at 30% or higher. All three numbers are considerably worse than the MLB averages. The Mariners bullpen working behind Gilbert has been fairly solid this season but has struggled a bit in night games, recording a collective 4.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with eight blown saves compared to nine converted. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 215 | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Brooklyn at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. Whether this is a competitive affair or a blowout, I like the chances of it being high-scoring after the first six games in this series have been predominantly low-scoring (relatively speaking), with the 'under' cashing at a 5-1 clip (or 5-0-1 depending on your number in Game 5). The Nets essentially 'folded the tent' and moved on to Game 7 after falling behind in Game 6 in Milwaukee on Thursday. Here, we can expect them to bounce back from a poor 89-point effort back home where they've put up 115, 125 and 114 points in this series. Note that the 'over' is 12-4 with the Bucks coming off a double-digit home win this season with those games totaling an average of 236.4 points. The 'over' has generally been a solid bet with Milwaukee following an 'under' result, going 46-33 over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 230.4 points. As for the Nets, they've actually allowed 113.3 points per game as a favorite this season, with the 'over' cashing at a 35-23 clip. That situation has produced an average total of 233.1 points. The Bucks just aren't the same defensive team on the road, where they allow 114.5 points per game this season. If they're going to finally steal a game here in Brooklyn when it matters most, they're going to need to put up a peak offensive performance, but given they average just shy of 118 points per game away from home, we know that they're capable. Take the over (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -1 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We got what we wanted in Game 6 of this series as the Bucks cruised to an easy, double-digit victory to force a seventh and deciding game back in Brooklyn on Saturday night. Here, we'll back the Nets at a short number as they look to hold serve for a fourth time at home and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals in the process. The Bucks have offered the Nets their best punches in the last two games of this series, shooting better than 49% from the field in a six-point loss here in Brooklyn in Game 5 before registering a 16-point home win in Game 6. Now it's the Nets turn to answer back with a peak performance here at home, even without Kyrie Irving. Brooklyn has of course been a tremendous home team this season, going 34-8 while outscoring the opposition by just shy of eight points per game. The Nets have gone a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS here at home in these playoffs. Game 6 was always going to be an uphill battle for the Nets off an emotional, Kevin Durant-fueled Game 5 victory here at home. Not surprisingly, the Bucks came out with more energy and had little trouble forcing a seventh game. Now the situation sets up well for the Nets, noting that Milwaukee has gone 5-14 ATS when playing on the road after winning two of its last three games this season. We're dealing with a short pointspread here for a reason as the Nets certainly aren't the same team without their 'Big Three' intact. With that being said, I do think they're right where they want to be, at home with a chance to close out this series, and I look for them to take full advantage. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Semis Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' on Saturday as the Islanders look to answer back following consecutive losses. New York has to realize at this point that it's not going to win this series by sitting back on its heels. The Isles have now registered less than 30 shots in consecutive games. When they've been at their best in these playoffs they've been playing with an attacking mindset, as evidenced by their lone win in this series, a 2-1 victory in Game 1 where they fired 31 shots on goal. Note that the 'over' is 8-2 with the Isles playing at home after a game where three or less total goals were scored this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced a whopping 7.2 goals on average this season. The 'over' is also 22-12 with the Isles revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last two seasons with an average total of 6.4 goals scored in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lightning have posted a 13-6 o/u record when playing consecutive road games this season with that situation producing 6.4 total goals on average. Over the last two seasons, Lightning games following an 'under' result have averaged 6.0 total goals. The Lightning aren't likely to sit back and play conservatively just because they've grabbed a 2-1 series lead. I look for both teams to find more offensive success than we saw in a tightly-contested Game 3. We'll take advantage of the '5' being offered tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Lynx v. Wings -164 | Top | 77-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
WNBA Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas over Minnesota at 8 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Wings two nights ago as they fell in this same matchup against the Lynx - a game that was never really all that close. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Wings as they look to bounce back, but rather than lay the points, I'll back them on the moneyline at what I consider to be a very reasonable price. As I noted in Thursday's analysis, the Wings have certainly been playing better of late, winning four of their last seven games overall following a four-game slide. In retrospect, Dallas was in a bit of a tough spot on Thursday as it was returning home following a successful but lengthy five-game road trip that spanned the first two weeks of the month. Here, I look for the Wings to regain their footing and get back on the winning side. Everything went right for the Lynx right out of the gate on Thursday as the Wings found themselves chasing the game all night long. The trio of Sylvia Fowles, Kayla McBride and Napheesa Collier shot a blazing 22-of-35 from the field for the Lynx on Thursday. Now it's up to the Wings to make the necessary defensive adjustments and I'm confident they'll do just that noting that in spite of Thursday's poor effort, they've still held their last five opponents to just 41.4% shooting. While Minnesota shot the lights out on Thursday, Dallas just couldn't get in rhythm with key contributors Marina Mabrey and Satou Sabally combining to shoot 2-of-15 from the field. Even star Arike Ogunbowale had an off night, connecting on just 8-of-19 shots while getting to the free throw line only twice. We'll chalk up that ugly performance as anomaly in the dreaded first game back following a long trip. Consistency has been tough to come by for the Lynx this season as they enter this one having alternated wins and losses over their last four games. While they held the Wings under 35% shooting on Thursday that came on the heels of a game in which they allowed Chicago to score 105 points on 57.1% shooting (we won with the 'over' in that contest). Note that Minnesota is just 23-42 SU the last 65 times it has come off an outright underdog win over a conference opponent, as is the case here. The Lynx are also just 6-9 SU after scoring 77 points or more in four consecutive games over the last two seasons. Take Dallas moneyline (10*). |
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06-19-21 | White Sox v. Astros -121 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Astros last night and I won't hesitate to come back with them again on Saturday. Lance Lynn gets the nod for the visiting White Sox. I'm not going to knock Lynn for anything he's done this season - he's off to a phenomenal start. However, if there's one team that has his number, it's the Astros. They'll be getting their third look at him since last season, having scored a whopping 15 earned runs in just 11 2/3 innings in their last two games against him. Working behind Lynn is a good White Sox bullpen, but one that has been overworked lately, especially when you consider Chicago hasn't had an off day since June 7th. Note that the White Sox 'pen has converted 10 saves but has blown nine in night games this season. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. Much has been made of the White Sox success against left-handed pitching. However, they're averaging a fairly pedestrian 4.5 runs per game in their last eight contests against southpaw starters and they're facing a good one in Framber Valdez on Saturday. Valdez has been terrific since coming off the I.L., recording a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in four starts, with the Astros winning three of those games. He'll have the advantage of having never faced the White Sox here. The Astros bullpen entered last night's game sporting a solid 3.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with seven converted saves and only three blown here at home this season. Take Houston (9*). |
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06-19-21 | A's +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
American League Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the A's on the run-line (free play) last night even though we didn't even need the insurance run in a 5-3 victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their series with the Yankees in the Bronx. Chris Bassitt gets the start for Oakland. He was quietly an A.L. Cy Young contender last season and after a slow start this year, he has been excellent for the A's once again. Bassitt checks in sporting a 3.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in seven road starts this season with the A's winning all seven of those games. While he was shaky in his most recent road start in Seattle back on June 1st, it's worth noting that he was pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start in that one. Here, he pitches on five days' rest for a second consecutive outing. Bassitt will also have the advantage of the Yankees having never faced him. Behind Bassitt is a solid A's bullpen that entered last night's game having worked just 20 2/3 innings over their last seven contests, with an off day in the mix as well. They've posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season. Domingo German will counter for New York. He's generally been awful over his last four starts. In six daytime starts this season he owns an ugly 5.34 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He averages just 5 1/3 innings per start here at home and while that's generally not a problem as the Yankees bullpen is terrific, we're talking about a group that has been somewhat overworked lately and has struggled a bit as a result. Entering last night's game, the Yankees relief corps had worked 29 1/3 innings over their last seven contests, recording a collective 3.99 ERA and 1.43 WHIP along the way. Finally, I'll point out that the A's have faced German three times since the 2018 season, knocking him around for 13 earned runs in just 15 1/3 innings. With the A's roster mostly intact from recent years, look for them to find continued success here today. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Germany v. Portugal +0.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portugal +0.5 goals over Germany at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Portugal's Euro 2020 debut against Hungary on Tuesday - a rather miraculous win thanks to three late goals from A Selecao. Here, I expect to see another tightly-contested affair, but will grab the half-goal of insurance with Portugal knowing it would be pleased to gain another point here with a difficult match against France still ahead. Germany isn't the same dominant team we've seen at recent European Championships. While the talent is still there, the pieces just haven't fit together quite as well in recent years and here we find it with just three victories in its last seven matches, with those wins coming against the likes of Iceland, Romania and Latvia. While a narrow 1-0 defeat at the hands of mighty France might look good on paper, the Germans rarely looked all that threatening in that match. Portugal last lost just one match going all the way back to November 2019 - a string of 16 contests. That lone defeat came by a 1-0 scoreline against aforementioned France. Die Mannschaft has gotten the better of Portugal over the years but there haven't been any recent meetings between the two sides. As the odds for this match indicate, there's little to choose between these two sides but I see Portugal having the killer instinct that Germany lacks at the moment and at the very least keeping this one level on Saturday. Take Portugal +0.5 goals (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 157.5 | Top | 80-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
WNBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in this same matchup two nights ago but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. We're being given a more favorable number to work with and I look for both teams to make the necessary defensive adjustments to help keep this one 'under' the total. The Sparks had no answers for Mercury star Brittney Griner on Wednesday as she shot 10-of-16 from the field and got to the free throw line 12 times on her way to a 30-point explosion. I fully expect to see the Sparks make some adjustments and do a better job of keeping her contained here. I also think we'll see things balance out a bit after the Mercury held a 28-6 free throw edge two nights ago. Credit Los Angeles for prevailing in that contest thanks to shooting 45% from the field. Keep in mind, this is a team that had shot 36.8% or worse from the field in their previous three games. Phoenix will undoubtedly respond with a better defensive effort, noting that it had previously held six straight opponents to 42.7% or worse shooting. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Mercury's last two games. Note that they've yet to post three straight 'over' results this season. The last time they were in position to do so they totaled just 151 points in their next game. The Sparks on the other hand have yet to post consecutive 'over' results this season. Their two previous contests following an 'over' result totaled just 131 and 144 points. Take the under (10*). |
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06-18-21 | White Sox v. Astros +103 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 103 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
MLB American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Astros cruised to a 10-2 win in the opener of this four-game series last night and have now won four games in a row and 12 of their last 16 overall. I look for them to keep rolling on Friday. Carlos Rodon will take the ball for the White Sox. He's been terrific this season, there's no denying that. However, here he'll be pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start after going seven innings in his last outing against the Tigers. He'll also be facing an Astros lineup that has feasted on left-handed pitching this season, hitting .270 as a team and averaging 5.6 runs per game against southpaw starters. Behind Rodon is a somewhat overworked White Sox bullpen given the team hasn't had a day off since back on June 7th. Luis Garcia will counter for Houston. He has quietly been one of the Astros most effective starters this season and has been outstanding here at home where he owns a 1.91 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in five starts, with the Astros winning three of those games. Houston's bullpen has been solid here at home this season, recording a collective 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with just three blown saves compared to seven converted. Unlike the White Sox, who have been playing every day for nearly two weeks straight, the Astros were just off on Monday. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Golden Knights -158 v. Canadiens | 2-3 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We won a big ticket play on the Canadiens +1.5 goals two nights ago as they stunned the Knights in a 3-2 outright victory in Las Vegas. Here, I look for the Knights to answer back as the scene shifts to Montreal for Game 3 on Friday night. I believe this situation sets up similarly to Game 3 in the Knights opening round series against Minnesota. The Wild managed to steal one of the first two games in Las Vegas but the Knights responded favorably to the pressure in Game 3 in Minnesota, rallying from an early deficit to deliver a 5-2 victory. Vegas has been one of the best road teams in the NHL this season, posting a 22-12 record while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals. The Habs on the other hand haven't been anything special here at the Bell Centre, posting a 16-17 record. They're currently riding a three-game winning streak here at home, which matches their longest such streak of the season. The last time they tried to make it four wins in a row on home ice they fell by a 4-3 score against the Oilers back on May 10th. Note that the Canadiens check in a miserable 10-20 after winning four of their last five games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They've been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that situation. Take Vegas (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 between the Lightning and Islanders last night. In fact, in going 4-0 this round we've yet to step in with a play on the 'over'. We'll switch gears and do so here, however, as the Knights and Canadiens head north for Game 3 in Montreal. Vegas got off to a quick offensive start in this series but looked like a different team in Game 2, perhaps missing first-line center Chandler Stephenson, or perhaps taking the Habs a little too lightly after cruising to a 4-1 win in the series-opener. Whatever the case, I expect to see the Knights bounce back offensively in this one. The Canadiens haven't been a better defensive team at home this season, allowing an identical 2.9 goals per game to what they give up on the road. The Knights, meanwhile, haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production away from home, averaging 3.2 goals per contest, just 0.1 goals per game lower than their season average. Keep in mind, Knights road games this season have averaged 5.5 goals per game while their playoff games have averaged just shy of that at 5.4 goals per game. The Canadiens have admittedly been involved in lower-scoring playoff affairs, with their games averaging just 4.8 total goals, however, it's worth noting that each of their last four games have totaled at least five goals. I simply feel that we're going to see totals back at 5.5 in this series, just as we saw back in Game 1. Look for the Knights to come out with an attacking mindset after a poor performance in Game 2 while the Habs aren't likely to lay down here at home, helping contribute to this one going 'over' the relatively low total. Take the over (10*). |
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06-18-21 | 76ers -150 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Second Round Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia moneyline over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Friday. We'll back the 76ers on the moneyline in this matchup as while I do expect them to prevail, their poor free throw shooting could leave the backdoor ever so slightly open in the late stages of this contest. Credit Atlanta for rallying to steal Game 5 in Philadelphia two nights ago. The 76ers were guilty of taking their foot off the gas and perhaps looking ahead to a potential series clincher here in Atlanta in Game 6. Instead, now it's the 76ers who will be facing elimination on Friday night. I look for them to avoid that fate, however. Philadelphia is a quality road team by NBA standards, having posted a 22-18 SU record away from home this season, outscoring the opposition by 2.9 points per game on average. Note that the Sixers check in a solid 35-18 SU having outscored opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Atlanta is a long-term loser at 18-39 SU the last 57 times it has played after recording consecutive outright underdog wins. There's really no intimidation factor at play here. The 76ers know they can beat the Hawks, regardless of the setting, having already posted a 16-point victory here on this floor back in Game 3. Philadelphia hasn't lost three games in a row since a four-game skid from April 19th-24th and it's worth noting that it was the underdog in three of those four contests, unlike this situation where it has been favored in every game in this series. Take Philadelphia moneyline (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Mets v. Nationals -113 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Mets had their three-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Cubs last night while the Nationals enter this series off of four straight victories. I look for Washington to keep its winning streak intact for at least one more night. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for New York. He's been awful in five road starts this season, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Worse still, he has recorded an 8.77 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four nighttime starts. Averaging just 3 2/3 innings per start we're likely to see plenty of the Mets bullpen in this one. While New York's relief corps has posted fine overall numbers this season, it has struggled on the road having recorded a collective 4.43 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with eight blown saves to go along with nine converted. Speaking of bullpens, it's certainly worth noting that the Mets haven't had an off day in over a week while the Nats' were idle yesterday. Erick Fedde gets the start for the Nationals. His numbers aren't great by any means, far from it in fact. However, he has pitched well over his last few starts, recording a 1.59 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while working at least five innings in all three of those outings. Behind him is a terrific Nats' bullpen that has posted a collective 3.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home this season, converting eight save opportunities while blowing only three. Take Washington (10*). |
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06-18-21 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This is being pegged as a potential slugfest between two hot-hitting teams in the Bronx on Friday night. I expect a different story to unfold, however. Rookie James Kaprielian will get the start for Oakland. Making your first career start at Yankee Stadium is always a big deal and I think Kaprielian will be up to the challenge. Keep in mind, his first big league start came at Fenway Park back in May and he gave up just one earned run over five innings in a 4-1 A's victory. Kaprielian has really had just one bad start in six turns in the rotation this season, that coming in Seattle back on May 31st. Consider he was making his second straight start on four days' rest in that situation. Here, he pitches on five days' rest for the third consecutive time. While Kaprielian averages just 5.4 innings per start this season that's not a major concern as the A's bullpen comes off an off day yesterday and has been terrific on the road this season, recording a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Jameson Taillon looks to bounce back from one of the worst (and shortest) outings of his career. He's actually well-positioned to do so here at home, where he has been at his best this season recording a 3.22 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven starts. He averages just over five innings per start at home but again, that's not a big concern as the Yankees bullpen has been effective here at home, posting a collective 3.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Czech Republic v. Croatia OVER 2.25 | 1-1 | Loss | -50 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Croatia vs. Czech Republic 'over' 2 goals at 12 noon et on Friday. NOTE: I recommend playing this total at a slightly steeper price at 2 rather than the standard 2.25 being offered. Most books will allow you to play the alternate total of 2 priced around -145 at the time of writing. We saw a very uninspiring performance from Croatia - the 2016 World Cup runner-up - in its tournament-opening 1-0 loss to England (we won with England in that match). Here, I look for it to come out with an attacking mindset as it could certainly use the three points, already sitting three back of both aforementioned England and today's opponent, the Czech Republic following its impressive 2-0 victory over Scotland. While the Czechs managed to keep a clean sheet against Scotland it wasn't without some difficulty as the Scots generated a number of quality chances, ultimately firing 19 shots with four of them reaching target. I do think that Croatia boasts the finishing ability that Scotland lacks. Leading up to this tournament, Czech Republic had conceded at least a goal in five consecutive matches. In my analysis of my play in support of the Czechs and the 'over' in their last match I pointed to their dynamic scoring ability led by striker Patrik Schick. Right on cue, he delivered two goals in their opener, including what will likely go down as the goal of the tournament. I would certainly expect him to remain dangerous here as the Czechs should be eager to proceed forward knowing that three points would secure their place in the knockout stage. It's worth noting that we've seen one side score at least two goals in five of the six 'matchday two' contests at this tournament so far. It's not really until 'matchday three' that we look to take strong 'under' positions. With earning at least a point imperative for both sides, and neither all that likely to deliver a clean sheet, we'll look for some goals on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Rays -165 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Rays just dropped consecutive games in Chicago, losing the series in the process against the White Sox. I look for them to bounce back here on Thursday as they head to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Mariners. Left-hander Rich Hill will take the ball for Tampa Bay. He checks in sporting a 2.89 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in six road starts this season with the Rays winning four of those games. Note that the Mariners average just 3.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Hill isn't likely to work deep into this contest, noting he averages just 4 2/3 innings per start on the road this season. That's just fine as the Rays bullpen, while somewhat overworked lately, has been terrific this season posting a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only four blown on the road. They haven't blown a single save over their last seven contests, recording a sparkling 1.08 ERA and 0.57 WHIP along the way. Justin Dunn will counter for Seattle. He's been solid here at home this season, albeit with a rather small sample size of just 21 1/3 innings. Note that Dunn has recorded a 4.28 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in seven nighttime starts. Like Hill, Dunn is unlikely to work deep into this game. That leaves a Mariners bullpen that has posted a collective 4.03 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with just one converted save (and another blown) over the last seven games. At night this season, the M's 'pen has blown eight saves compared to nine converted. Note that the Rays have been a much better offensive team on the road this season, where they average an impressive 5.8 runs per contest. Take Tampa Bay (9*). |
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06-17-21 | Brewers v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. With the Rockies coming off consecutive high-scoring wins over the Padres to complete an improbable series sweep here at Coors Field, I look for a much different story to unfold on Thursday. The Brewers will send Brandon Woodruff to the hill for the opener of this series. He's been phenomenal on the road this season, posting a minuscule 0.67 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in six starts this season. We shouldn't need much help from the Brewers bullpen given Woodruff averages just shy of seven innings per start on the road, but it's worth noting that it has been reliable away from home, posting a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. In night games this season, the Brewers 'pen has recorded a 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with nine converted saves compared to only three blown. German Marquez will counter for Colorado. He's posted a strong home-road dichotomy as usual, recording a 3.99 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in nine home starts with the Rockies winning seven of those games. Note that Marquez has worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. The Colorado bullpen is certainly a concern here although the Brewers aren't exactly an explosive offensive club, averaging just 3.5 runs per game on .203 hitting at night this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | 2-1 | Win | 119 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series before switching gears and backing the Lightning in Game 2. Here, I'll go back to the well with the 'under' as the scene shifts to Long Island for Game 3 on Thursday night. The Islanders aren't going to win many games trying to run and gun with the Lightning in this series. Tampa Bay is simply too deep and explosive offensively for the Isles to last very long playing the way they did in Game 2. Penalties obviously played a role in that setback as well. I expect to see a much cleaner performance from the Isles back home if nothing else. Note that the Islanders have allowed just 2.1 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'under' has gone 12-4 with New York revenging a loss where their opponents scored four goals or more this season, as is the case here, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. The 'under' is also 15-5 with the Isles playing at home off a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 4.6 goals. On the flip side, the Lightning have posted a 1-8 o/u record when playing on the road off a home win this season. That situation has produced an average total of just 4.5 goals. These two teams are somewhat familiar with one another having faced off in the Eastern Conference Final in last year's 'bubble' playoffs. Note that the 'under' has cashed in seven of the last 11 meetings in this series. While we'd like to be dealing with a '5.5' here, I do like the plus money return being offered at '5' here in what I would expect to be a 'first to three wins' type of affair. Take the under (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Lynx v. Wings -5 | 85-73 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Minnesota at 8 pm et on Thursday. I wasn't all that high on Dallas early in the season as they were dealing with some key absences and putting too much on the shoulders of Arike Ogunbowale. However, the Wings have gotten back to virtually full strength and the difference in their play has been staggering as they've gone 4-2 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS over their last six contests. Meanwhile, Minnesota still can't seem to get out of its own way. The Lynx did post three straight wins earlier this month but have since dropped two of their last three contests to fall to 4-6 on the campaign. They're the ones missing a number of key contributors now. While Napheesa Collier continues to shine, she's not getting a great deal of help. I've been waiting all season for former Aces sharp-shooter Kayla McBride to get acclimated with the offense but it just hasn't happened. Now their depth will be seriously challenged with only three players capable of giving them significant minutes off the bench with Natalie Achonwa sidelined. The Wings shot just 32.5% from the field in their last game yet still managed to cover the spread in a competitive seven-point loss in Las Vegas. That came at the end of a tough five-game road trip, on the heels of three straight wins. Here, I look for the Wings to get back on track offensively as they reach the win column once again in convincing fashion. Take Dallas (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -191 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 3:45 pm et on Thursday. We're being asked to lay a fairly steep price to back the home side here, but I believe it could be even higher. We cashed our free play on the Giants last night as they rallied from an early deficit to win a wild, high-scoring affair. I'm not expecting that same type of game to play out on Thursday but I'm confident the end result will be the same. Zac Gallen is expected to get the nod for the D'Backs as he makes his return from the I.L. His early season results were mixed, much like the early stages of his big league career. Note that he faced the Giants three times last season and in the third game we saw San Francisco finally figure him out, scoring four earned runs over just five innings. Gallen wasn't able to work deep into ball games with any consistency when he was healthy earlier this season and that spells trouble here as he'll likely not be extended too much, meaning we'll see plenty of an awful D'Backs bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.71 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season, recording just three saves compared to eight blown. Kevin Gausman will start for the Giants. He remains one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball this season. There's a reason the Giants rewarded him with a substantial contract prior to this season. He's been lights out here at home this season, posting a 2.33 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in four starts. Better still, he has recorded a 1.25 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in six daytime starts with the Giants winning five of those games. The D'Backs have faced Gausman four times since the start of the 2019 season and have yet to figure him out, managing just four earned runs in 24 innings. With Gausman averaging 6 2/3 innings per start at home this season we may not need much help from the San Francisco defense. However, I will point out that the Giants 'pen has been outstanding this season, recording a collective 2.53 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 13 converted saves compared to just two blown here at home (entering last night's action). Take San Francisco (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Austria v. Netherlands -160 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Netherlands over Austria at 3 pm et on Thursday. Austria cruised to an expected win over North Macedonia in its tournament opener with its only blemish in that match coming by way of a defensive miscue in the penalty area. Here, it will face a much tougher challenge, however, as it faces a Dutch side playing with home field advantage and one that will have its guard up following a scare against Ukraine in its opener. This was already going to be a tough match for Austria but with top scoring threat Marko Arnautovic sidelined due to a UEFA-imposed one-game ban, the uphill climb has become even steeper. While I do have questions about the Dutch defense, and certainly its situation at goalkeeper with Jasper Cillessen left off the squad due to a positive Covid test, I'm not convinced Austria can take advantage here. Note that prior to its three-goal breakout against North Macedonia, the lowest-ranked side in the entire tournament, Austria had been held off the scoresheet entirely in three consecutive matches leading up to this tournament. It's notable that its 0-0 draw against Slovakia in a pre-tournament friendly match came with the aforementioned Arnautovic on the bench for the first three quarters of the contest. Much like Italy did yesterday, I expect the Netherlands to come out determined to take three points from this match to assure itself of advancement to the knockout stage and afford the opportunity to perhaps give some players rest in its final group stage match against North Macedonia. Take Netherlands (10*). |
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06-17-21 | North Macedonia v. Ukraine OVER 2.5 | 1-2 | Win | 109 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Ukraine and North Macedonia at 9 am et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring tournament openers and I expect a similar story to unfold on Thursday. With both sides coming up empty point-wise on matchday one of this tournament, we can expect both to come out with an attacking mindset as they look to take all three points from this contest. For Ukraine, this is its most winnable match of the three and it should bring plenty of confidence after rallying from a 2-0 deficit only to fall 3-2 against the mighty Netherlands last time out. If you've followed my plays regularly, you know that I'm high on the Ukraine attack led by Yarmolenko, Yaremchuk and Zinchenko. As we saw against the Dutch, the Blue and Yellow are capable of scoring against the best of them and should feast in this favorable matchup against North Macedonia - the lowest-ranked team in the tournament. With all of that being said, I do think there's a goal out there for North Macedonia in this contest. They managed to find the back of the net once against Austria, albeit on a defensive miscue in the penalty area. As good as Ukraine is up front, it is vulnerable in the back and North Macedonia hasn't been held off the scoresheet entirely since last November, when it suffered a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Armenia. Take the over 2.5 goals (9*). |
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06-16-21 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 154.5 | 80-85 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Wednesday. This total has dropped from its opener and it's the right move in my opinion. Phoenix has now lost three games in a row but has scored over 80 points in four of its last six contests. The Mercury don't have much of a margin for error offensively, however, with Brittney Griner and Skylar Diggins-Smith providing the bulk of their production. Few teams get less scoring off the bench. If there's a night where Diggins-Smith goes cold or Griner gets into foul trouble, the Mercury just aren't going to put up many points. Los Angeles is in tough right now, missing a number of key players including the Ogwumike sisters and now Te'a Cooper as well due to a one-game suspension. The Sparks have been held to 71 points or less in three straight games, shooting no better than 36.8% from the field in any of those contests. If they're going to turn things around they'll need to step up their defensively play after allowing 80+ points in consecutive games. Note that in their last two home games (both victories) they allowed an identical 63 points and held the opposition to 34.3% and 33.9% shooting. Take the under (9*). |
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06-16-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Playoff Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Habs for at least staying in the game in the opener of this series on Monday night. They could have easily folded the tent after falling behind 2-0 early in the second period but answered back with a goal to cut the lead in half. They could have also let the game get out of hand after a quick response from Vegas to make it 3-1 but instead they battled in the third period, ultimately outshooting the Knights 12-9 in the final frame and falling by a 4-1 score. The Canadiens are very much a team with 'nothing to lose' here in the Stanley Cup semi-final round. Few expected them to get out of the first round let alone make it out of the North Division. Facing the Knights is a tall task and I certainly don't expect them to win this series. However, I do think they're well-positioned to give Vegas a run in Game 2 on Wednesday night. Note that Montreal is 11-5 after scoring a goal or less in its last game this season, averaging 3.1 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that spot. We've also seen the Habs allow just 2.4 goals per game and outscore opponents by an average margin of 0.4 goals when revenging a loss by four goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation coming up 21 times previously. The Knights are just 4-10 when coming off consecutive home wins by two goals or more in franchise history, allowing 3.5 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. Vegas is a terrific team and certainly has a clear path to a Stanley Cup title at this point. However, I don't think it will go completely untested in this series. Look for the Habs to keep things close at the very least in Game 2 on Wednesday night. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 223.5 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Monday night but I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 5. The Hawks aren't going to slow down the 76ers offense here in Philadelphia. That's a feat they've yet to accomplish in four previous tries this season, allowing 127, 127, 124 and 118 points. I fully expect to see them come out with an attacking mindset from the opening tip on Wednesday as they look to take advantage of a somewhat depleted 76ers defense with Joel Embiid playing on a bad knee. Monday's miserable 36.6% shooting performance from Atlanta had more to do with poor shot selection than it did the 76ers defense as far as I'm concerned. Look for the Hawks to do a better job of knocking down their shots on Wednesday night. For the 76ers this is obviously a critical contest as they look to avoid being pushed to the brink of elimination with the series going back to Atlanta for Game 6. Note that the Hawks have been a considerably weaker defensive team on the road compared to at home this season, allowing 112.9 points per game on north of 47% shooting. For their part, the 76ers check in averaging over 118 points per game here at home. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 with the 76ers playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season with those contests averaging a total of 229.7 points. The 'over' is also 15-5 with Philadelphia coming off a loss by six points or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 226.3 points over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive relatively high-scoring games between these two teams to open this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday afternoon. Griffin Canning will take the ball for the Angels. He has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in five starts with three of those games finding their way 'over' the total. Worse still, he has recorded an 8.81 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in four daytime starts. After struggling against Canning in the 2019 season, the A's had a lot more success against him last year, facing him three times and scoring 10 earned runs in just 13 1/3 innings. With Canning averaging less than five innings per start this season we should see plenty of the Angels below-average and overworked bullpen, which allowed another three earned runs in last night's loss. L.A.'s 'pen has recorded a collective 5.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in day games this season. Left-hander Cole Irvin will counter for Oakland. The Angels will be getting their second look at him this season after scoring four earned runs off of him over six innings in a game back on May 30th. Of course, the Angels have been a far better hitting team against southpaw starters this season, hitting .275 and averaging 5.9 runs per game. Irvin has been good but certainly not great at home this season, posting a 4.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He's averaging right around 5 2/3 innings per start here in 2021. While the A's bullpen has been terrific in terms of converted save percentage here at home (12 saves converted compared to two blown), they will give up some runs. They allowed two earned runs in two frames in last night's 6-4 victory and now own a 4.54 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Switzerland v. Italy UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Italy and Switzerland at 3 pm et on Wednesday. |
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06-16-21 | Switzerland v. Italy -154 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Euro Group Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Italy over Switzerland at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Italy faced little resistance in its tournament opening victory over Turkey and while it figures to face a tougher challenge here, I look for it to rise to the occasion once again. For Switzerland, it could certainly use a point from this match but even if it fails to get it, a victory in its final group stage contest against Turkey would likely be enough for advancement, depending on how today's earlier match between Wales and Turkey goes. While the Swiss sit 13th in the international FIFA rankings I'm just not convinced they have the offensive firepower to break through against an extremely tough Italian defense. In fact, Italy hasn't conceded a single goal in its last nine matches. While it hasn't exactly faced the toughest of competition over that stretch, going back a little further finds additional clean sheets posted against the likes of the Netherlands and Poland in late 2020. A victory here would certainly lock up advancement from the group stage for Italy and I'm confident that will be the focus. Keep in mind, while the final score read 3-0 in its opener, it controlled proceedings from the start, firing 24 shots, with eight of those reaching the target. This is another match where the opposition will likely allow the Italians to dictate the tempo and control much of the possession. That suits the Italians just fine. Few teams boast the level of form and structure the Azurri do at both ends of the pitch. We're being asked to lay a very reasonable price to back the superior squad here. I have this one going 1-0 or 2-0 to Italy. Take Italy (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Sky v. Lynx OVER 159 | 105-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The return of Candace Parker has been just the spark the Sky needed to get back on track following a seven-game losing streak, reeling off back-to-back wins over the Indiana Fever - scoring 92 and 83 points in the process. The 'over' has now cashed in each of their last two games after the 'under' had hit in four of their last five. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair here. Minnesota has started rolling following a tough start to the season. The Lynx have won four of their last five games and enter Tuesday's contest having scored 80 points or more in four straight games. Like Chicago, Minnesota also dealt with injury issues earlier in the season The return of Napheesa Collier has certainly helped their cause in recent weeks. With that being said, Collier is coming off a 4-of-14 shooting effort in Saturday's win over the Sparks. Kayla McBride was also off the mark in that one, connecting on just 1-of-6 field goal attempts. Here, I look for both to bounce back and pace the Lynx offense. The Lynx benefited greatly from catching the Sparks without the Ogwumike sisters on Saturday, holding Los Angeles to 64 points on 32.9% shooting in that blowout win (we won with the Lynx on that night). Here, I expect them to have their hands full against a rejuvenated Sky squad led by Candace Parker. Both of last year's meetings between these two teams found their way 'over' the total. Expect a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 217 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Brooklyn at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen an incredible swing in this total since the start of this series, largely due to the injuries to Nets superstars James Harden and Kyrie Irving, but also due to the general low-scoring nature of the series so far. Here, I look for a different story to unfold as far as the scoring output goes and feel the total is moving in the wrong direction. It's certainly worth noting that the Bucks defense is not the same on the road as it has been at home this season. They check in allowing 114.5 points per game on just shy of 46% shooting away from home this season with their games averaging 232.7 total points. While the Nets aren't the same explosive offensive team with only one of the 'big three', it's not as if they're completely devoid of talent. If anything Kevin Durant will take this as a challenge and we know he's capable of taking over a game all on his own. Now that they've evened this series at two games apiece and with the Nets suddenly missing two of their best three players, I expect the Bucks to carry an attacking mindset into this Game 5 matchup in Brooklyn. We haven't seen much of a drop-off in production from the Bucks offensively on the road this season, even if they did turn in an absolutely dreadful performance the last time they played here in Game 2. Coming off a series-high tying 107-point effort in Game 4 and knowing there is so much room for improvement (they've shot 44.6% or worse in all four games in this series), I believe a Bucks offensive breakout is imminent at this point. Note that the 'over' is 12-4 with the Bucks coming off a double-digit home win this season with those games totaling an average of 237.2 points. The 'over' is also 13-4 with the Nets coming off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last two seasons, with those contests reaching an average total of 238 points. Take the over (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in Marlins ace Trevor Rogers' most recent start last week against the Rockies as that game totaled 15 runs. In fact, that was the third time in Rogers' last four outings that the game reached exactly 15 total runs. While I'm not bold enough to call for that level of offensive production here, I do expect this one to find its way 'over' the very reasonable total. Rogers has been terrific this season. There's really no reason to knock him here. However, I will point out that the Cardinals did get a look at Rogers back in April and managed to chase him after just four innings, scoring three runs, two of them earned, on two hits and four walks. Note that St. Louis is 9-4 against left-handed starters this season, averaging 4.6 runs per game - well north of their season average. I'll also point out that Rogers will be starting on just four days' rest for a second straight time on Tuesday. Behind Rogers is an overworked Marlins bullpen that has blown eight saves compared to only six converted on the road this season. I say overworked because the Marlins haven't had a single day off here in June. Kwang-Hyun Kim will take the ball for the Cardinals. He was just activated off the I.L. after dealing with a back injury. While Kim got off to a solid start this season, it seems that as more teams get a look at him, he has started to struggle, posting a 6.58 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over his last three starts. His last two trips to the hill have resulted in 11 and 10 total runs. In fact, the 'over' is 6-2-1 in his nine starts overall this season. With Kim averaging just a shade over 4 2/3 innings per start this season and given the fact he's returning from the I.L., we should see plenty of the Cards bullpen on Tuesday. While they've posted a tremendous save conversion rate here at home (13 saves converted with only one blown), the rest of their numbers have been pretty pedestrian, posting a collective 4.34 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. In night games this season, the Cards 'pen has recorded a 4.89 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This series opens with a sneaky-good pitching matchup on Tuesday night as the Rangers send Kyle Gibson to the hill against Lance McCullers Jr. Gibson got lit up in his first start of the season but he's been terrific ever since. He checks in sporting a 3.41 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in six road starts this season. The Astros have had four previous looks at Gibson since the start of last season but they've yet to figure him out, managing to score just three earned runs off of him over 28 innings. While the Rangers awful bullpen is a concern, that concern is somewhat muted by the fact that Gibson averages a solid six innings per start and with the Astros likely to be out in front in the latter stages of this game, we may only have to deal with a couple of innings from the Texas 'pen. Lance McCullers Jr. will counter for Houston. He has posted a 3.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five home starts this season and brings excellent current form into this start having recorded a 1.89 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his last three outings. In three games against McCullers since the start of last season, the Rangers have managed to score just three earned runs in 15 innings. Working behind McCullers is an Astros bullpen that has has been solid at home, posting a collective 3.99 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with seven saves converted and only three blown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -182 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Semi-Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning got off to a typically sluggish start in Game 1 of this series on Sunday, not all that surprising given they had been idle for four full days after finishing off the Hurricanes in five games. They did ultimately come alive in the latter stages of that contest, but it was too little, too late in a 2-1 loss. Here, I look for Tampa Bay to bounce back on home ice, where they've gone 24-10, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average this season. Note that the Bolts are an incredible 19-3 after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. They're also a rock solid 58-22 when coming off a loss over the last three seasons. The Islanders have now won four games in a row - their longest winning streak since April 1st to 8th. On that occasion, they failed to make it five straight victories, falling by a 4-1 score at home against the Rangers. New York is a long-term loser when playing on the road after winning three or more games in a row, going 28-57 in their last 85 opportunities. Note that the Isles are averaging just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a win this season. Meanwhile, the Lightning have allowed just 1.9 goals per game when revenging a loss where they scored one goal or less this season, as is the case here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Portugal v. Hungary OVER 2.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Portugal and Hungary at 12 noon et on Tuesday. This is a critical match for both sides - in fact, all three matches will be critical for all four squads in this very difficult group that also includes mighty France and Germany. With that in mind, I fully expect Portugal to come out with an attacking mindset as it looks to take all three points against Hungary on Tuesday. Not to be outdone, Hungary also believes it has a good shot at advancing in this tournament and why not as it enters this contest riding an 11-match unbeaten streak. I think it's important not to get too carried away by Hungary's two recent international friendly results - a sleepy 1-0 victory over Cyprus before settle for a 0-0 draw in a rather uneventful affair against the Republic of Ireland last week. This isn't a team without creativity at the opposing end of the pitch, having scored a whopping 10 goals in three World Cup 2022 Qualifying matches back in March, including an impressive 3-3 draw against Poland. The duo of Sallai and Szalai up front are certainly capable of breaking through for at least one marker against a Portugal defense that isn't quite what it once was, especially with Joao Cancelo sidelined due to a positive Covid test. Of course, Portugal is more than able to overcome any sort of adversity here with a brilliant attack led by Cristiano Ronaldo and perhaps soon to become household name Diogo Jota. Portugal fielded its 'A' squad in a friendly match against Israel last week (we won with Portugal -1.5 in that contest) and while it got off to a bit of a slow start it eventually 10 shots on target, scoring four goals including a brace from Bruno Fernandes. With Spain and Sweden's 0-0 draw in yesterday's final match, not to mention Portugal's recent 0-0 draw with Spain (we won with Portugal +0.5 goals in that match) fresh in the minds of many bettors, I think some are hesitant to play the 'over' in this one. That's fine with us as it offers us a generous return with a very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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06-14-21 | Angels v. A's -159 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Angels are red hot on the heels of consecutive three-game sweeps of the D'Backs and Royals, winners of eight of their last nine games overall. However, the A's are rolling as well, fresh off three straight wins over the Royals and riding a 9-2 run over their last 11 games. I like the home side to keep it going on Monday night. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. The wheels have come off for him a little bit lately as he's failed to last at least six innings in five straight starts and checks in sporting a 6.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season. The A's have seemingly figured him out over their last couple of games against him, scoring six earned runs on 12 hits in only eight innings. With Bundy averaging just a shade over five innings per start this season we should see plenty of the Angels below-average bullpen in this one as well. Los Angeles' 'pen has posted a collective 4.53 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with nine saves and seven blown in night games this season. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. After a tough start to the season he's rounded into form, posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in eight starts here at home with the A's winning seven of those. Going back over his last four starts, Manaea has allowed just two earned runs in 26 2/3 innings of work. With Manaea averaging north of six innings per start here at home this season, the A's bullpen isn't a major concern, but they have been solid, particularly at home where they've recorded a somewhat lofty 4.31 ERA but a respectable 1.29 WHIP with 10 converted saves compared to only two blown. While the Angels have hit left-handed starting pitching well this season, they haven't done much against Manaea, managing just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in two games against him this season. The A's bats have finally woken up lately, scoring 31 runs in their last six games, with Matt Chapman in particular getting on a bit of a heater at the dish over the last few games. Take Oakland (10*). |
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06-14-21 | Marlins v. Cardinals -180 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Miami at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Cardinals return home licking their wounds following a series sweep at the hands of the rival Cubs. I like their chances of getting back on track here as they open a series with the Marlins, who check in 13-22 while averaging just 3.7 runs per game on the road this season. Braxton Garrett will get his second start of the season for Miami. He wasn't great in his season debut, lasting just four innings while allowing two earned runs on five hits while striking out only three and walking three. Garrett has now made three big league starts and has yet to last more than five innings in any of them. That opens the door for a Marlins bullpen that has posted a 4.29 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road this season, blowing eight save opportunities while converting only six. Adam Wainwright will counter for the Cardinals. He's enjoyed a renaissance of sorts so far this season, particularly at home where he has recorded a stellar 2.62 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in eight starts. He's averaging just under seven innings per start here at home. Behind him is a Cards bullpen that has posted a collective 4.46 ERA and 1.43 WHIP at home this season - not all that impressive by any means, however, that same 'pen has converted 12 saves compared to just one blown here in St. Louis. Take St. Louis (9*). |
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06-14-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 226 | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The 76ers have absolutely shot the lights out in this series, shooting 52.9% or better from the field in all three games. They've now shot better than 51% in four consecutive games, one game shy of their longest such streak of the season. They posted that five-game streak back in the first two weeks of March but that stretch included games against the likes of the Pacers, Bulls, Wizards and Spurs. The Hawks have actually been a solid defensive team, particularly at home where they allow 108.8 points per game on 45.1% shooting on the season. Despite the 'over' result in Game 3, the 'under' remains a profitable 21-17-1 in their 39 home games this season. Note that the 'under' checks in 8-1 with the Hawks playing at home off two or more consecutive ATS losses this season, with those games averaging just 212.5 total points. The 76ers have now allowed 100 or more points in six straight games, their longest such streak since April 14th to 24th. In their next game following that previous six-game streak they gave up only 90 points in a win over Oklahoma City. That game totaled just 211 points, staying comfortably 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-14-21 | Czech Republic v. Scotland OVER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2 goals between Scotland and the Czech Republic at 9 am et on Monday. |
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06-14-21 | Czech Republic v. Scotland | 2-0 | Win | 106 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Czech Republic +0.5 goals (-190) over Scotland at 9 am et on Monday. NOTE: I'll play the alternate goal line at a steeper price here giving us insurance should this match end in a draw. Alternatively, your book may offer the Czechs to win/draw at the same price. I'm higher on the Czech's than most entering this tournament and while this obviously a difficult match against Scotland in Glasgow, I expect to see them keep proceedings level at the very least and earn a much-needed point as they battle it out in a tricky group. With England and Croatia rounding out the group, advancement could be difficult for these two squads so avoiding a goose-egg in the opening match is obviously critical. The Czechs bring rather inconsistent form to the table after suffering a 4-0 defeat at the hands of mighty Italy before rallying their spirits for a 3-1 win over Albania in two warm-up friendly matches. Keep in mind, they didn't start their 'A' squad against the Italians and fell behind quickly 2-0 as a result. Once the likes of Patrik Schick and Tomas Soucek entered the match after halftime the game was already well in hand for Italy. Scotland earned a recent 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, which was certainly impressive on paper. However, the Dutch were missing some key parts at the back-end, most notably goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen, whose absence was certainly felt in yesterday's narrow 3-2 victory over Ukraine. In World Cup Qualifying back in March, the Scots' needed a late goal to pull even with Austria in a 2-2 draw before settle for another disappointing draw, 1-1 against Israel, and then proceeding to lay waste to Faroe Islands 4-0. Scotland actually reached this tournament - a rare Euro appearance at that - on the shoulders of qualifying wins over the likes of Kazakhstan, Cyprus and San Marino before clinching their ticket with victories on penalties against Israel and Serbia. To say that it is fortunate to be here would be an understatement. I think the fact that Scotland got past Czech Republic in both Nations League matches last fall looms large when it comes to the prices being set for this match. While Scotland does have home field advantage, I believe the case could be made for the Czechs to be favored. Instead we're able to grab them plus a half-goal at a reasonable price. Take Czech Republic +0.5 goals (9*). |
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06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. This line is moving in the wrong direction in my opinion. While the Nuggets are highly unlikely to give the Suns a serious run int his series I do think that they can salvage at least one game. Note that Denver is 10-2 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points. In fact, coming off a home loss of any kind this season, the Nuggets have outscored opponents by 12.8 points on average the 12 times that situation has come up. They're also an impressive 17-5 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 14.4 points in that situation. I have a lot of respect for Phoenix. There's a reason I didn't fade them in Game 3 (instead playing the 'under'). However, the fourth win is always the toughest in a series and I expect them to get extended at least one more game against a Nuggets squad that should play with some pride on Sunday night. Take Denver (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We keep seeing low posted totals in games starter by Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler and the 'over' has now gone 6-2 over his last eight outings. I look for that trend to continue on Sunday after these two teams took turns beating each other up over the last two nights. Dane Dunning will take the ball for the Rangers. To say he's been terrible on the road would be an understatement. He has posted a 7.20 ERA and 1.80 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in four of his six outings away from home. With Dunning averaging just over four innings per start on the road, we should see plenty of a Texas bullpen that has had a tough time getting outs on the road this season, posting a collective 5.63 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. In 86 1/3 innings worked in day games, the Rangers have managed to record just three saves while blowing three other opportunities. Walker Buehler is an outstanding pitcher, there's no reason to really knock him here. However, his 12 previous starts this season have resulted in 11, 1, 17, 5, 11, 11, 10, 4, 9, 13, 17 and 8 total runs, good for an average of 9.75 runs per contest. Buehler averages between six and seven innings per start here at home. While the Dodgers bullpen has been terrific for the most part this season, they have struggled a bit in day games, recording a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with four blown saves compared to six converted. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Mystics v. Dream OVER 165.5 | 78-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and Atlanta at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. I’ll keep my analysis fairly brief as Sunday is a travel day. If you’ve followed my plays regularly you know that I’m fairly high on both of these teams right now, even with the Dream coming off consecutive lopsided losses at the hands of the defending champion Seattle Storm. Washington has gotten healthier and we’ve seen the duo of Myisha Hines-Allen and Ariel Atkins really take off. Atlanta is missing Chennedy Carter but the potential is there for the Dream offense to get going if Aari McDonald can round into form. With both teams eager to get rolling here and the Dream in particular looking to bounce back from consecutive subpar performances look for both to push the pace here. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
NHL on NBC Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We cashed with the 'over' on three separate occasions during the Islanders series win over the Bruins last round. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as the Isles open their Stanley Cup semi-final series against the Lightning in Tampa. Note that the 'under' has gone 22-10-2 in all Islanders road games this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.8 goals. The 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Isles coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. The 'under' is also 12-2 with the Lightning coming off a shutout victory over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of only 4.7 goals. The Isles carried an attacking mindset against the Bruins, who were missing a key piece on defense in Brandon Carlo, and who had an injured goaltender in Tuukka Rask. Here, I think we'll see the Isles employ a different gameplan as they look to muck things up and slow down the explosive Lightning offense. While these two teams haven't met this season, six of their last nine matchups have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We've missed with the 'over' in the last couple of games in this series but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon. The fact that the Nets are favored in this game is key. Note that the 'over' is 18-8 with Brooklyn checking in as a road favorite this season with those contests totaling an average of 239.8 points. Meanwhile the 'over' is 8-1 with the Bucks coming off a home win where they failed to cover the spread this season with those games reaching an average total of 248.6 points. Milwaukee has been a solid positive momentum play offensively this season, averaging a whopping 122.4 points per game when coming off a victory, as is the case here. While the Bucks were set on mucking things up and grinding out a Game 3 victory, here I look for the Nets to make the necessary adjustments and turn Sunday's game into a track meet. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Ukraine v. Netherlands OVER 2.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Netherlands and Ukraine at 3 pm et on Sunday. We followed both of these sides closely in international friendly action leading up to this tournament, cashing some plays along the way. Here, in the opener of a Euro tournament where both are expected to advance past the group stage, I'm expecting to see some scoring in what I envision as a potential 2-1 match. Note that the Netherlands will be without keeper Jasper Cillessen due to a recent positive Covid test. It will also be without defender Virgil van Dijk after he suffered an ACL injury. I mentioned that the Dutch could be vulnerable in the back against Scotland in a recent international friendly (where we won with the 'over') and they indeed struggled, allowing a pair of goals in that draw. I'm higher on the Ukraine than some in this tournament as I feel they have enough talent, particularly up front, to give the opposition plenty of headaches. However, there are question marks in the back-end, noting that Ukraine enters this tournament having managed just two clean sheets in its last nine matches. Of course, those did come in its last two matches, but those were against the likes of Northern Ireland and Cyprus - two fairly punchless attacks. Here, the Ukraine will face a much different challenge against a Dutch side brimming with talent and explosiveness. The common line of thinking here is that both teams will play this opener cautiously with hopes of at least earning a point and solidifying their chances of advancement past the group stage. I think it goes the other way, however, with the two teams looking to get off and running on a positive note and make somewhat of a statement here on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Yankees v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams yesterday as the Phillies posted their third straight walk-off win by an 8-7 score in extra innings. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Domingo German will take the ball for the Yankees. He owns a 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in five road starts this season, where he's averaged six innings per start. He'll have the advantage of never facing the Phillies. Behind German is a Yankees bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 3.20 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the road this season, making good on nine save opportunities while blowing only two. Aaron Nola will counter for Philadelphia. He's been terrific at home this season, recording a 3.02 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in six starts. He's been at his best in daytime starts, posting a 2.10 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. The Phillies bullpen has been in excellent form lately and has recorded a collective 3.93 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in day games this season. With Nola giving the Phillies over 6 1/3 innings per start in daytime outings this season, we may not need too much help from the Philadelphia 'pen here. Also note that in his lone previous start against the Yankees, Nola allowed just one earned run in six innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Croatia v. England -165 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on England over Croatia at 9 am et on Sunday. I know that Croatia will concede at least a goal in this match. I don't know that England will. Here, I'll back the English as the hopes of a nation rest on the shoulders on a relatively young squad that's potential is massive, but expectations might just be even higher. This is obviously a difficult opening match against a tough Croatia squad. Of course, this is a rematch of the 2018 World Cup semi-final match between these two squads - one that was one in thrilling fashion by Croatia. The Chequered Ones have fallen on some hard times since, however. Croatia suffered a 1-0 loss to Belgium in a recent international friendly match before it settled for a 1-1 draw against Armenia. Meanwhile, England has conceded just one goal in its last six matches, that coming in a 2-1 victory over Poland on March 31st. Croatia has conceded at least a goal in 13 of its last 15 matches. Its only two clean sheets over that stretch came against the likes of Cyprus and Malta. While the jury is still out on England's prospects for winning this tournament, or even going on a deep run, I do expect it to get off to a positive start in front of the home faithful at historic Wembley Stadium on Sunday. Take England (10*). |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -190 | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles moneyline over Utah at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. While the other Western Conference series is all but over with the Nuggets dropping three straight games in decisive fashion against the Suns, I think we're still in for a long series between the Jazz and Clippers. Utah prevailed in Games 1 and 2 but both games were close, despite the Jazz turning in near-flawless performances offensively. Of course, the Jazz have been virtually unbeatable at home all season so the fact that this series is 2-0 in their favor is no real surprise. Now the Clippers have an opportunity to get back in the series with three consecutive games here at home. Rather than lay the points in this Game 3 matchup, I'm going to back the Clips on the moneyline, only because I feel the price, while steep, could be even higher. I do have a lot of respect for Utah and certainly feel a backdoor cover could be in play in this one. Keep in mind, save for save for one Utah blowout, four of five meetings in this series have been decided by six points or less. Note that Los Angeles has outscored the opposition by 10.2 points on average when coming off a loss over the last two seasons and checks in 27-13 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.9 points on average. Take Los Angeles moneyline (9*). |
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06-12-21 | Sparks v. Lynx -7.5 | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Los Angeles at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Lynx on Saturday night as they look to bounce back from a close loss in Washington last time out. Minnesota has still won three of its last four games, not surprisingly coinciding with the team getting healthier. Napheesa Collier's return in particular has boosted the team's prospects in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is missing both Ogwumike's and not surprisingly suffered a lopsided defeat in Washington two nights ago (we won with the Mystics in that game) as they continue to struggle to find consistent offensive production. Here, they'll face a Sky squad that is locked in defensively right now, having held four straight opponents to 43.7% or worse shooting. Los Angeles has shot 37.5% or worse from the field in three of its last four contests. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets got the better of the Padres in last night's pitcher's duel (we won with the 'under') and I expect a similar story to unfold on Saturday. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for San Diego. He's off to an incredible start this season and of course already has a no-hitter to his credit. However, he has struggled in four daytime starts, posting a 4.50 ERA and he averages just north of five innings per start on the road. Musgrove has already faced the Mets once this season and it was one of his worst starts of the season as he allowed three earned runs on eight hits over just five innings (he did strike out 10 along the way). While the Padres bullpen working behind him has posted excellent overall numbers this season, I still feel it's an overworked group, having already pitched 271 innings (prior to last night's game). We've seen some regression from the Padres relief corps in recent weeks and could certainly see more of that should they get extended today. Marcus Stroman will counter for the Mets. He didn't allow a single earned run over 6 2/3 innings when he faced San Diego on June 6th. Stroman checks in sporting an impressive 2.02 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in four home starts this season. He's lasted at least six innings in six straight starts and behind him is one of the best bullpens in baseball, particularly here at home where the Mets relief corps has posted a collective 1.69 ERA and 1.11 WHIP (entering last night's action). We'll grab the insurance run here but hopefully won't need it. Take New York +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-12-21 | White Sox -162 v. Tigers | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The White Sox got past the Tigers in extra innings last night and I look for them to add to Detroit's misery on Saturday afternoon at Comerica Park. Dylan Cease will take the ball for Chicago. While he has struggled on the road this season, he's had no such issues against the Tigers over the course of his career. In fact, the White Sox are a perfect 7-0 in his seven previous starts against them. Detroit has already had two looks at Cease this season and four since the start of last year. However, if the Tigers haven't figured him out by now, they're likely not going to do so. Behind Cease is an average White Sox bullpen, but one that has excelled against A.L. Central opponents, posting a collective 3.07 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 91 innings this season (entering last night's action). Jose Urena will counter for Detroit. This will be Chicago's third look at Urena this season. After struggling against him in their first go-round, we saw the White Sox bust out last Sunday, scoring three earned runs on six hits over five innings. With Urena averaging between four and five innings per start at home this season we're likely to see plenty of the Tigers bullpen, which has struggled here, posting a collective 4.31 ERA and 1.39 WHIP (entering last night's game). Interestingly, the Tigers 'pen has blown six saves while converting only five in day games this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-12-21 | Switzerland v. Wales OVER 1.75 | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 1.5 goals between Switzerland and Wales at 9 am et on Saturday. I'll keep my analysis for this one short with kickoff quickly approaching. I simply feel there's a very good chance we see each side find the back of the net in this match and will play the alternate total over 1.5 goals for a positive start to our Saturday. Switzerland is coming off a 7-0 drubbing of Liechenstein and while it will certainly find the going much tougher against a fundamentally-sound Wales squad, I do expect it to break through, noting its actually been a number of years since the Swiss were last held off the scoresheet entirely. For Wales, it needs to hit the ground running if it is to have any chance of advancing from a very difficult Group A. The Welsh are coming off a 0-0 draw against Albania in a match where they looked quite disinterested, perhaps with an eye on the start of this tournament. Switzerland is by no means a defensive juggernaut, having conceded against the likes of the USA, Finland and Bulgaria in fixtures since the beginning of March. Take the over 1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Run-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Texas at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Dodgers are showing signs of getting rolling again, coming off a three-game sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh. I look for them to win in convincing fashion with Clayton Kershaw on the hill against Mike Foltynewicz on Friday night. Foltynewicz is a somewhat familiar face to the Dodgers from his days in the National League. In six career starts against them, he's posted a 6.11 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Of course, that's pretty much par for the course for Folty as so far this season he owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in four road starts, with the Rangers winning just one of those games. While he has worked seven innings in two of his last three starts, he's still averaging just 5.5 innings per start this season which is concerning as the Rangers bullpen has been awful on the road, posting a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Clayton Kershaw is coming off back-to-back rough outings but should get back on track here. He has posted a 3.55 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in six home starts, with the Dodgers winning four of those games. Note that he's absolutely owned the opposition in three previous interleague starts, recording a sparkling 0.92 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings of work. While the Rangers have hit better against left-handers this season, better is a relative term in this case as they're still averaging just 4.1 runs per game and hitting .241 against southpaws. With Kershaw averaging around 6 1/3 innings per start here at home, the Dodgers bullpen may not have to factor in too much, but it's worth noting that they've recorded a collective 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home this season. Over their last seven games (entering yesterday's action) they've posted a 2.60 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with no blown saves. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Royals v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams last night with just seven total runs scored. I'm expecting a similar story to unfold on Friday night. Brady Singer will take the ball for the Royals. His numbers certainly aren't great but he's been saddled with some bad luck as well. Note that Singer has posted a 34.3% hard-hit ball percentage this season - nearly 5% below the MLB average. He's also recorded a ground ball rate north of 50%. However, his BAbip is .345, contributing to his ugly ERA which is approaching five. Note that he will have the advantage of facing the A's for the first time on Friday. Also note that the A's average less than four runs per game here at home. With Singer averaging less than five innings per start, we should see plenty of the Royals bullpen and that's not a bad thing as they've collectively posted a 3.51 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with just three blown saves compared to seven converted on the road this season. Cole Irvin will counter for Oakland. While his 4.72 ERA at home leaves a lot to be desired he has posted a terrific 1.20 WHIP in his seven home starts. Note that he's been at his best at night, recording a 3.31 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. In fact, the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 in his six nighttime starts this season. Behind Irvin is an A's bullpen that has under-achieved a bit but has still managed to post a respectable 3.83 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 112 2/3 innings logged at night. The A's relief corps has racked up nine converted saves with only one blown here at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Astros v. Twins OVER 11 | 6-4 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This may look like an exorbitantly high total for a game not played at Coors Field but a deeper look indicates why and I'm confident we'll see these two teams find a way 'over' the lofty number. Jose Urquidy will take the ball for Houston. The Twins will be getting their second look at him since last September after he held them to just one earned run over 4 1/3 ok innings last fall. Urquidy has had an up and down start to the season but has generally been subpar on the road, where he owns a 4.79 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 26 1/3 innings of work. He averages just 5 1/3 innings per start away from home which means we should see plenty of an Astros bullpen that got extended in Boston last night and owns a collective 4.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP with eight blown saves (compared to only six converted) on the road this season. Matt Shoemaker will inexplicably get another turn in the rotation for the Twins. He's been awful this season. In seven home starts he has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. For the season he's averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start which spells trouble as the Twins bullpen has been overworked over the last week or so, pitching a collective 31 2/3 innings over their last seven games. Note that the Minnesota 'pen has struggled at night this season, posting a collective 5.67 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with only four converted saves. Take the over (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Storm v. Dream +9.5 | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 8 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Dream in this same matchup two nights ago as they fell flat in a 24-point rout at the hands of the Storm. Keep in mind, that game was actually close into the second half before Atlanta went on an extended cold streak and got caught chasing the game. I'll back the Dream again here, as I expect them to make the necessary adjustments and do a better job of defending the Storm after they shot a blistering 55% on Wednesday. Seattle got above-average performances all over the floor in that game. In fact, the trio of Mercedes Russell, Sue Bird and Stephanie Talbot combined to shoot 13-of-17 from the field. Meanwhile, outside of Tiffany Hayes, the Dream just couldn't knock down shots consistently. Atlanta is certainly capable of much better and needs a victory tonight to have a shot at a winning homestand with Washington rolling into town on Sunday. Note that the Storm have posted three previous wins by more than 10 points this season. In their next game they've gone 2-1 with their two victories both coming by exactly three points. Look for the Dream to take the Storm down to the wire at the very least on Friday night. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We barely escaped with a win with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The fact that the 76ers have shot better than 52% from the field in each of the first two games in this series is impressive, but not sustainable. In fact, Philadelphia checks in having shot better than 51% from the field in three straight games entering Friday's contest. Note that they haven't shot north of 50% in more than three consecutive games since the start of March and that five-game streak was the only time they pulled it off this season. Philadelphia has been a considerably worse offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, where it averages 110.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting. The good news for the Sixers is that they've actually allowed fewer points on the road than at home, giving up only 107.8 points per game with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip this season. Likewise, Hawks home games have been lower scoring than their road games. They're an underrated defensive squad, particularly at home where they've allowed just 108.3 points per game on 44.7% shooting this season, with the 'under' going 21-16-1. Note that the 'under' is 12-4 with the 76ers playing on the road as a favorite of six points or less this season with those games totaling an average of just 215 points. Take the under (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Colorado's blowout loss in Miami last night and I'll come right back with the same play here as the Rockies continue their road trip in Cincinnati. Kyle Freeland will make his fourth start of the season for the Rockies. He's struggled so far, recording a 6.23 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in 13 innings of work. Perhaps most concerning is the fact that he's yet to last more than five innings in a start, which opens the door for an extended night from the Rockies awful bullpen. Colorado's relief corps entered last night's game sporting a collective 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road this season. Tyler Mahle will counter for the Reds. He pitched relatively well against the Rockies earlier this season but I expect them to do a little more damage here as they get their second look at the right-hander in less than a month. Mahle owns an ugly 7.23 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four home starts this season, where he averages only 4 2/3 innings per start. That spells trouble given the Cincinnati bullpen has recorded a collective 7.17 ERA and 1.53 WHIP (prior to another poor performance yesterday) at home this season, with only two-of-five converted save opportunities. Take the over (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Giants v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. NOTE: Our play on the 'under' 3.5 runs first five innings in this same matchup was rained-out last night. Now with both teams playing just their second game in the last four days we have two rested bullpens and I'm comfortable playing the full-game 'under' rather than the first five innings only. I like the way this one sets up as a low-scoring affair with the Giants sending pleasant surprise Anthony DeSclafani to the hill against Nationals ace Max Scherzer. DeSclafani has come out of nowhere (Cincinnati actually) to go 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.11 WHIP out of the gates this season. He's been at his best on the road, where he has posted a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in seven starts, with four of those staying 'under' the total. Best of all, he has recorded a sparkling 2.17 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in nine nighttime starts. While he has had mixed results in his career against the Nats', there's no decisive edge here as he hasn't faced them since 2019. The Giants bullpen has been outstanding lately, recording a collective 1.27 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over their last seven games and as noted above, while previous extended having worked 35 1/3 innings over that seven-game stretch, as a result of last night's postponement they've now had two out of the last four days off. Max Scherzer has been doing 'Max Scherzer things' for the Nats' so far this season, posting a 2.22 ERA and 0.82 WHIP through his first 12 outings, with the 'under' cashing in nine of those. Scherzer has not surprisingly been at his best at home where he has recorded a 1.98 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in 41 innings of work. Washington's bullpen has been at its best here at home where it has posted a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with only two blown save opportunities. Take the under (9*). |
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06-11-21 | Italy v. Turkey OVER 2.25 | 3-0 | Win | 105 | 30 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2 goals between Italy and Turkey at 3 pm et on Friday. NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the alternate total of 2 goals at a slightly steeper price (around -125 at the time of writing) as opposed to the standard 2.25 being offered at most books. Most have this pegged as a conservative, low-scoring defensive battle between two sides that bring excellent form into Friday's Euro 2020 opener. I'll go the other way, however, as I believe a 2-1 final is the most likely outcome in this one. Turkey has a history of rising to the occasion, particularly when it comes to goal-scoring, against some of the world's football elite. Most recent, we saw Turkey put up four goals in an impressive World Cup 2022 qualifying match against the Netherlands in March. The Turks also managed three goals against a solid Croatian side last November. Last October, they scored three goals in a draw against Germany. Going back even further, Turkey scored three goals and took four of a possible six points in two matches against mightly France in qualification for these Euros back in 2019. Meanwhile, Italy brings outstanding form into this tournament, having scored 11 goals in its last two matches, albeit against lesser foes in San Marion and the Czech Republic. The Italians actually haven't conceded a goal since last October against the Netherlands but apart from a match against Poland last November (that match still reached two total goals in a 2-0 Italian victory) their schedule hasn't exactly been littered with international football powers. With Switzerland and Wales rounding out Group A, I believe both sides will be confident 'going for it' in this tournament opener on Friday. Both countries should feel there are six points two be had in their other two matches, not easily mind you. Take the over (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. Unlike last night, when I suggested the Islanders would come out with an attacking mindset with a chance to eliminate the Bruins on home ice, here I look for the Golden Knights to focus on staying fundamentally-sound defensively as they attempt to close out the Avalanche in Game 6. The Knights may be known for their offense but they've actually been very stout defensively here at home, where they allow just 2.1 goals per game this season. This will be the 14th meeting between these two teams this season with the 'under' having cashed at a 9-4 clip. Note that the 'under' has gone 21-11 with the Avs playing on the road revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Avs playing on the road off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons, 8-1 after they give up three goals or more in consecutive games this season and a perfect 6-0 after they've been held to two goals or less in consecutive contests this season. I don't see things suddenly opening up in this 'elimination game' on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Avalanche +127 v. Golden Knights | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I don't expect the Avs to go away quietly in this series, keeping in mind the Golden Knights are just 3-8 when attempting to close out a playoff series over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that situation. Colorado does have two victories to its credit here in Las Vegas this season and despite dropping Games 3 and 4 here, has proven to be a solid road team this season, posting a 20-13 record. Note that the Avs have allowed just 1.8 goals per game and outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.6 goals after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games this season. They've also held opponents to 1.3 goals and outscored them by 1.5 goals on average when coming off consecutive games where they were held to two goals or less. This has been an incredibly tightly-contested series with the Knights holding just a slight 10-9 edge in the last 19 meetings over the last three seasons. I expected a seven-game war heading into the series and I believe the Knights will be in tough trying to register a fourth straight victory over the Avs on Thursday night. Take Colorado (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 234 | 83-86 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'over' in Game 2 between these two teams two nights ago as the lack of competitiveness from the Bucks once again led to a lower-scoring game than expected. It's become evident that Milwaukee isn't going to be able to slow down the Nets scoring machine, having now allowed 125, 114, 118, 115 and 125 points, with Brooklyn hardly breaking a sweat in the latter two performances, in five meetings this season. If the Bucks are going to get back in this series they're going to need to come up with a big offensive showing themselves on Thursday and I'm confident we'll see exactly that. Note that Milwaukee averages just shy of 121 points per game at home this season. It falls into an excellent situation here with the 'over' having gone 15-5 the last 20 times Milwaukee has been seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite (the Bucks inexplicably closed as short favorites in Game 2 in Brooklyn). In that situation, the Bucks have averaged over 123 points per game with an average total of 239.8 points. Brooklyn has actually been a higher-scoring team on the road than at home this season, averaging 119.9 points per game with an average total of 237.1 points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -154 | Top | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Playoff Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee moneyline over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I like the fact that the Bucks have had two full days to sit around and listen to everyone saying they're a 'regular season team' and that they have no shot at coming back against the Nets in this series. Keep in mind, Milwaukee closed as a favorite in Game 2 of this series in Brooklyn. The oddsmakers were certainly giving them more than just a chance at getting back in this series at that point. Now we're seeing an overreaction following the lopsided nature of Game 2. Consider that the Nets have gone just 2-7 SU after a win by 20 points or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.9 points in those nine contests. They're also just 3-7 SU when on the road after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games this season, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are an incredible 15-3 SU when seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite (yes, they closed as a short favorite in Game 2) over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that Milwaukee checks in 35-9 SU when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points on average in that situation. Take Milwaukee moneyline (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Astros v. Red Sox -110 | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Red Sox to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Astros on Thursday night at Fenway Park. While this pitching matchup certainly doesn't appear to favor Boston as Houston sends Zach Greinke to the hill against Eduardo Rodriguez. Greinke has been terrific this season but he's also been spotted plenty of run support. While he's coming off a complete game victory over the Blue Jays in Buffalo last week, he's still averaging just over 6 1/3 innings per start this season which does leave the door open for an Astros bullpen that while solid lately, still owns a 4.39 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with only six converted saves compared to seven blown on the road this season. As mentioned, Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. He wasn't good against the Astros last week but did bounce back with a solid outing in a 7-3 road victory over the Yankees on Saturday. Note that Rodriguez has pitched considerably better at home than on the road this season and that most recent start against the Astros came in Houston. Here at Fenway Park, he owns a 4.26 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP with the Sox winning two of his three starts. Behind Rodriguez is a terrific Boston bullpen that has posted a collective 3.32 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with nine converted saves compared to only four blown here at home this season. Take Boston (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Rockies v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 4-11 | Win | 104 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been involved in a number of relatively low-scoring games recently. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Rockies will hand the ball to Chi Chi Gonzalez. He's been awful on the road this season, posting a 6.20 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in five starts, spanning 24 2/3 innings of work. Noting that he averages less than five innings per start away from home, we should see plenty of a Rockies bullpen that has posted a collective 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road this season. Colorado's 'pen has converted just 10 saves this season while blowing nine. Marlins ace Trevor Rogers will counter. He's been excellent this season, however, it's worth noting that two of his last three starts have totaled a whopping 15 runs. Note that Rogers actually only averages 5 2/3 innings per start, and slightly less than that here at home. He'll be facing a Rockies lineup that has been better against southpaw starters, hitting .270 as a team. Miami's bullpen has eight blown saves compared to only seven converted in night games this season and has posted a collective 5.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over its last seven contests. While I do like the Marlins to prevail in this one, I think it could be higher-scoring than most expect. Take the over (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Sparks v. Mystics -4 | 71-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Thursday. The Mystics have managed to turn their season around, relatively speaking, by winning two of their last four games with the two losses over that stretch coming against two championship-caliber teams in Connecticut and Las Vegas. Here, I look for the Mystics to take advantage a depleted Sparks squad traveling across a couple of time zones to play this Thursday night contest in Washington. Note that while Los Angeles is coming off consecutive victories, its most recent came on a day where the game was essentially handed to it by a disjointed Chicago squad. The Sky had awful performances all over the court on that day while the Sparks saw Amanda Zahui B, Erica Wheeler and Te'a Cooper play above expectations in a come-from-behind five-point win. Washington has seen the duo of Ariel Atkins and Myisha Hines-Allen really emerge as consistent scoring threats in the last couple of games and I look for it to ride their strong performances to another victory on Thursday. Take Washington (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this game found its way 'over' the total which was not a surprising result by any means. I will be surprised if we don't see both teams tighten up defensively in Game 2 on Wednesday night, however. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-9 with the Nuggets coming off three straight games totaling 215 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 219.3 points. Also note that the Nuggets have allowed just 107.6 points per game when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons while the Suns have given up just 102.2 points per game when favoted by six points or less at home this season. The Suns have generally been at their best offensively with two or more days' rest between games in these playoffs - largely due to Chris Paul's nagging shoulder injury needing time to heal up between games. Here, we're back to a game on just one day of rest which I do think could diminish the Suns offense somewhat. Phoenix is absolutely locked in defensively right now holding the opposition to 46.7% shooting or worse in seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets know they need to toughen up defensively here after allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in three of their last four games. The 'over' has cashed in three straight meetings in this series. Time for a reversal of that trend here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Suns | 98-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Phoenix at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. Despite the relatively lopsided result in the opener of this series I still think this has the makings of a long series between two teams that have the ability to win away from home. Case in point, the Nuggets took two of three games in Portland in the opening round and despite their Game 1 loss, check in 24-16 away from home this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.6 points. Here, we find the Nuggets an incredible 12-2 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 4.9 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Suns are just 10-22 ATS when playing at home after scoring 120 points or more in a game over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points in that situation. There's really no intimidation factor at play here as the Nuggets have taken five of the last six meetings in this series here in Phoenix. The Suns have looked better when playing on more than one day of rest during these playoffs, particularly with Chris Paul dealing with a nagging shoulder injury. They're just 2-2 ATS when playing on one day of rest but a perfect 3-0 ATS when coming off two or more off days. Both of their SU losses in these playoffs came on one day of rest. Take Denver (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Fever v. Sky UNDER 161 | 76-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Chicago at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We haven't played many 'unders' in WNBA action this season but I will on Wednesday night as the reeling Fever head to Chicago to take on the Sky. Indiana has been a complete disaster this season, winning just once in 10 games - that coming earlier in the campaign against a struggling Mystics squad. The Fever have now shot worse than 40% from the field in four straight games and don't figure to bust out against an improving Sky defense that has held five of their last six opponents to 42.9% shooting or worse. While Indiana has struggled defensively, it's certainly worth noting that it has faced a brutal schedule lately, with its last four games coming on the road against Las Vegas (twice), Seattle and Los Angeles. It catches a bit of a scheduling break here as the Sky have yet to get things sorted this season with key players in and out of the lineup. Chicago is expected to welcome Candace Parker to the floor for the first time this season on Wednesday but how much she'll contribute in her first game back remains to be seen. Chicago has proven to be one of the league's weakest offensive teams so far this season, shooting 41.2% or worse from the field in all nine games to date. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Bruins v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 5 of this series on Monday night - one of our easiest winning tickets of the entire playoffs. While my first instinct was to give a hard look at the 'under' in Game 6, I just can't get there given the state of the Bruins. Goaltender Tuukka Rask was of course lifted from Game 5 due to an undisclosed injury. Maybe he'll be able to go on Wednesday, but even if he can, he hasn't shown the ability to steal a game in these playoffs. Top defenseman Brandon Carlo is also sidelined, an absolute anchor defensively in the B's own end of the rink. The Islanders are a supremely confident squad right now and should keep an attacking mindset with a chance to eliminate the favored Bruins on home ice in Game 6, avoiding a Game 7 back in Boston. Remember, last round the Isles overwhelmed the Penguins, scoring five goals in a series-clinching Game 6 victory here at the Nassau Coliseum. The Isles know they can't stop the Bruins 'Perfection Line' with Pastrnak, Marchand and Bergeron generating a ton of scoring chances in this series, with a hand in the majority of the Bruins goals. Note that the Isles are averaging an impressive 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Meanwhile, the Bruins have averaged 4.0 goals per game when coming off two or more straight losses this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a somewhat surprising low-scoring contest between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Veteran left-hander Brett Anderson will take the ball for the Brewers. He owns a 4.63 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season and the Reds will be getting their fifth look at him since the start of last season. Note that he's allowed six home runs against them in those previous four starts. Anderson averages less than four innings per start on the road this season so we'll likely see plenty of a Brewers bullpen that while solid overall this season has really struggled against division opponents, posting a collective 5.01 ERA and 1.41 WHIP entering last night's contest. They got stretched out last night as Adrian Houser could give the Brew Crew just 5 1/3 innings in that 5-1 victory. Vladimir Gutierrez will get his third start of the season for the Reds. He's been fine through two starts but don't count on him to work deep into this ball game. Note that he's lasted just five innings in each of his previous two outings. That opens the door for a dreadful Reds bullpen that has recorded a collective 7.21 ERA and 1.48 WHIP here at home this season (entering last night's game), with just two converted save opportunities. The Brewers offense while subpar for much of the season, has come around a bit lately, averaging right around five runs per game over the last week. Take the over (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Nationals v. Rays -156 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -156 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This price seems awfully short given the way the pitching matchup sets up on Wednesday night in St. Petersburg. Pat Corbin will take the ball for the Nationals. The wheels have fallen off for him a bit this season, particularly on the road, where he has posted a 7.30 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in five starts, with the Nationals winning only one of those games. He averages just a shade over five innings per start this season and you would have to go back five outings to find the last time he made it through the sixth inning. That spells trouble as the Nats' bullpen hasn't been good, recording a 4.53 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road. Entering last night's game, Washington's relief corps had posted a 6.26 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with a pair of blown save opportunities over their last seven games. Rookie Shane McClanahan will counter for Tampa Bay. He's made three home starts, recording a 3.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While he averages less than five innings per start that's not a big concern as the Rays bullpen has been outstanding. Tampa relievers have posted a collective 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home this season, making good on seven of nine save opportunities. The Rays have been one of the best teams in baseball in recent weeks and I look for them to post another victory on Wednesday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Astros v. Red Sox -134 | 8-3 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up well for the Red Sox as they look to bounce back following last night's 7-1 loss in the series-opener. They'll be facing Astros starter Jake Odorizzi for the second time this season after they defeated him by a 5-1 score last week (we won with the Red Sox first five innings in that contest). Odorizzi hasn't fared well since joining the Astros rotation, posting a 7.17 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in five starts. He's averaging only 3 1/3 innings per start which spells trouble as the Astros bullpen has posted a collective 4.61 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road this season where they've converted just five of 12 save opportunities. Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. He's been good but not great overall this season but has been particularly sharp in nighttime starts, recording a 1.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in four outings. It's encouraging that he has worked just shy of six innings per start and we're fine supporting the Red Sox bullpen here, noting that they've posted a collective 3.19 ERA and 1.32 WHIP here at Fenway Park, making good on nine of 13 save opportunities. Note that over the last seven games, the Boston 'pen has recorded a sparkling 1.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Take Boston (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Storm v. Dream +10 | Top | 95-71 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
WNBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 7 pm et on Wednesday. In my opinion, this is a bit of a lazy WNBA line set by the oddsmakers. Yes, the Storm are the defending champs and yes, Atlanta is coming off a 20-point drubbing at the hands of a middling Minnnesota squad - its second straight loss at the hands of the Lynx. However, I fully expect to see the Dream get up for this game. Despite the consecutive losses in Minnesota, Atlanta has been playing better lately, going 5-1 ATS over its last six contests. While losing guard Chennedy Carter to injury hurt, we've seen highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald finally start to acclimate herself to the offense in recent games, most recently scoring a season-high 15 points in consecutive games against the Lynx. Meanwhile, Tiffany Hayes has scored 20+ points in four of her last five games and Cheyenne Parker, the Dream's big offseason acquisition, is rounding back into form after contributing 19 minutes and 12 points last time out. Seattle is coming off a hard-fought 1-1 split in a two-game set against the Dallas Wings at home and checks in just 1-5 ATS over its last five contests. I'll grab the generous helping of points with a Dream squad that despite its early-season struggles, hasn't lost three games in a row yet this season. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Diamondbacks v. A's -210 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Arizona at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the A's in the opener of this series last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Wednesday afternoon. Matt Peacock will take the ball for the D'Backs. He's been good but certainly not great in four previous starts this season and now pitches on just four days' rest for the second straight start. Note that with Peacock averaging only five innings per start on the road we'll likely see plenty of an Arizona bullpen that has recorded a 4.55 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road this season, converting just three of 10 save opportunities along the way. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. The A's have gone 6-1 in his seven home starts this season where he owns a 3.37 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Note that Manaea checks in sporting a sparkling 0.87 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his last three outings and starts on six days' rest today. Behind Manaea is an A's 'pen that has posted a collective 4.33 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with nine converted saves and just one blown save opportunity here at home this season. Take Oakland (9*). |
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06-09-21 | Israel v. Portugal -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portugal -1.5 goals over Israel at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. We won with Portugal +0.5 in its last match against Spain and will go back to the well with A Selecao here as it draws a more favorable match against Israel ahead of its Euro opener against Hungary next Tuesday. We certainly didn't see Portugal's 'A' squad against La Roja last week. I suspect we'll see something closer to it here on Wednesday, however, even if Cristiano Ronaldo is likely to only make a cameo appearance (if he plays at all). Note that while Israel is coming off consecutive victories, scoring a whopping seven goals in the process, those came against the likes of Moldova and Montenegro. The fact that it conceded a goal in each of those contests was somewhat discouraging. Note that the last two times Israel stepped up in class it failed to find the back of the net against Denmark and the Czech Republic. I suspect it will have a difficult time breaking down a tremendous Portugal defense here as well. A Selecao certainly wants to head into the Euros on a positive note and consecutive clean sheets would do exactly that. On the flip side, regardless whether Ronaldo is on the pitch, I expect Portugal to go on the attack in this match - unlike what we saw against Spain when it didn't record a shot on target until the closing minutes. Prior to that 0-0 draw, Portugal had tallied nine goals in its last four matches. It should only be a matter of time before it puts its stamp on this one as well. Take Portugal -1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -144 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -144 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
NHL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The home team has dominated this series, going a perfect 4-0 so far and I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday night. After all, the Avs have gone an incredible 25-6 on home ice this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of 2.2 goals per contest. Note that Colorado is a perfect 10-0 when at home revenging a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.4 goals (!). The Avs are also 24-8 when revenging a loss against an opponent by two goals or more over the last two seasons and 25-12 when revenging a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less over the last three seasons. There aren't many situations where the Golden Knights own a losing record in recent years but here's one - they're just 11-16 when coming off a win by four goals or more over the last three seasons. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams this season and the Knights have yet to win three consecutive matchups with the Avs. Look for that to hold true on Tuesday. Take Colorado (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are better known for their offense but it's been their pitching that has really shone so far this season. Robbie Ray will take the ball for Toronto on Tuesday. He checks in sporting a 3.06 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last three starts. While he does own an ERA north of four on the road, the 'under' has still cashed in three of his five outings away from home. The White Sox have of course dominated left-handed starting pitching in recent years, however it's worth noting that they've scored a grand total of just nine runs in their last three games against southpaw starters. The 'under' is actually 10-7 when they face left-handed starters this season. Behind Ray is a Jays bullpen that has been terrific on the road this season, posting a collective 2.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, converting nine saves while blowing only two. Carlos Rodon will counter for Chicago. The left-hander has been outstanding this season, particularly here at home where he owns a 2.02 ERA and a minuscule 0.56 WHIP in four starts, spanning 26 2/3 innings. The 'under' has gone 4-2 in Rodon's six nighttime starts, when he has recorded a 1.23 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Note that the Blue Jays haven't seen Rodon since the 2018 season and in two previous games against him scored just four earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. Behind Rodon is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a collective 3.46 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (9*). |
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06-08-21 | Yankees -111 v. Twins | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees are reeling off a series sweep at the hands of the rival Red Sox over the weekend but I expect them to get back on track on Tuesday night in Minnesota. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for New York. He's struggled on the road this season, posting an ERA approaching six, yet the Yanks have still managed to win three of his five road outings. Perhaps that has something to do with their tremendous bullpen. With Montgomery averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start on the road we should see plenty of a Yankees bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.60 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the road this season, converting nine saves while blowing only one. On a positive note regarding Montgomery he has posted a 2.43 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven nighttime starts this season. He'll be facing a Twins club that has gone just 7-13 and averaged 4.2 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Michael Pineda gets the call for Minnesota. He kept the ball in the park for the first time in six starts last time out but still allowed five earned runs and was chased after just three innings, recording only one strikeout along the way. Much of his success has come in the daytime this season as he has recorded an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, albeit with a small sample size of just two nighttime starts. My biggest concern is that Pineda averages just 5 1/3 innings and the Twins bullpen has struggled, posting a collective 5.79 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at night this season. The Minnesota 'pen has converted only six saves while blowing five here at home. Take New York (9*). |
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06-08-21 | Mariners +107 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners have quietly started hitting lately, scoring five runs or more in five of their last seven games entering Tuesday's series-opener against the Tigers. They'll have a good opportunity to keep it rolling at the plate as they faced Tigers struggling starter Matt Boyd on Tuesday. Boyd has posted an 8.59 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over his last three starts. While he does still own solid numbers here at home, the Tigers have actually only managed to win two of his six starts at Comerica Park. With Boyd averaging less than five innings per start over his last three outings that means we'll likely see plenty of the Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.63 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at night this season. Marco Gonzales gets the start for the Mariners - his second since returning from the injured list. He didn't really get stretched too far in his first start back, allowing just one earned run in four innings against the A's last week. Now he's had six days off since that outing and should be able to work a little deeper into this contest. Gonzales' overall numbers are skewed by a couple of bad starts to open the campaign. He checks in having allowed just six earned runs over his last four starts, spanning 22 innings of work. While the Mariners bullpen hasn't been great this season, I'm not convinced the light-hitting Tigers can take advantage. Seattle relievers have posted a collective 4.65 ERA at night this season but a positive correction should be in order as they've actually recorded a solid 1.28 WHIP under the lights. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 223 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday night. After taking two of three regular season meetings, the 76ers may have got caught taking the Hawks lightly in the series-opener. They got smacked in the mouth early in that game and didn't really recover until the fourth quarter when it was too little, too late. Here, I do expect to see the Sixers bounce back, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that the last three times they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field they responded by holding their next opponent to 90, 97 and 95 points, with none of those three contests eclipsing the total we're dealing with tonight. Meanwhile, thanks to a fourth quarter lapse, the Hawks allowed the Sixers to shoot better than 54% from the field in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that game they had held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse. Note that the 'under' is 23-7 the last 30 times the Hawks have been leading a playoff series. The 'under' is also 35-17 with the 76ers playing at home following a game that totaled 235 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. This line is moving in the wrong direction as far as I'm concerned. The 76ers clearly took the Hawks lightly in the opener of this series on Sunday, falling behind big early as the Hawks simply couldn't miss in the first half. They did rally to make a game of it, however, showing a bit of Atlanta's inexperience in the process. Here, I look for the Sixers to bounce back with a convincing win. Note that Philadelphia has gone 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite of six points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.9 points. Better still, the Sixers are 21-8 ATS at home after losing two of their last three games, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points on average in that situation over the last three seasons. Atlanta is still a losing team on the road this season at 19-21 and checks in 20-34 ATS after winning consecutive games ATS over the last three seasons, outscored by 5.8 points on average in that spot. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Rockies v. Marlins -175 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams appear headed in opposite directions right now with the Rockies having won four of their last six games while the Marlins have dropped nine of their last 10 overall. I'll take a flyer on the Fish here, however, as they're set up well against a Colorado club that has gone a miserable 4-22 on the road this season. Antonio Senzatela will take the ball for the Rockies. He has struggled in three road starts this season, posting a 7.14 ERA and 2.03 WHIP with the Rockies losing all three of those outings. With Senzatela averaging less than four innings per start on the road we should see plenty of the Rockies bullpen, which has recorded a 4.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while blowing three saves and converting only two this season. We played the 'over' in Pablo Lopez's last start, cashing that ticket with relative ease as he struggled on the road against the Blue Jays. Lopez has shown a strong home-road dichotomy this season. Here at home he has posted an incredible 0.98 ERA and 0.87 WHIP and we're not talking about a very small sample size as he's made six starts here, spanning 36 2/3 innings. With Lopez averaging over six innings per start at home we might not need a whole lot of help from the Marlins bullpen but it's worth noting that they've posted a collective 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP here at home this season. Take Miami (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair as the Braves and Phillies renew their rivalry in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. Drew Smyly will take the ball for Atlanta. To say he's been awful lately would be an understatement as he has posted a 7.47 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his last three outings. Of course, that's about par for the course for Smyly in nighttime starts this season, when he has recorded a 7.05 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, with the 'over' cashing at a 5-1 clip in his six outings. Now he faces a Phillies lineup that will be getting a second look at him this season after they tagged him for five earned runs in five innings in a wild 7-6 Sunday night victory earlier this season. Behind Smyly is a Braves bullpen that has posted a collective 5.19 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season. Aaron Nola will counter for Philadelphia. He's been terrific at home this season but much of his success has been in the daytime. In eight night starts this season he has recorded a 4.84 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. The biggest issue here is that the Braves will be seeing Nola for the third time this season. In their second look at him they chased him after he allowed five earned runs in four innings. Nola has failed to last more than five innings in three of his last five outings and that means we should see plenty of a Phillies bullpen that has recorded a 4.81 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Lynx v. Mystics OVER 166 | 81-85 | Push | 0 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Washington at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We've cashed with the 'over' in each of Minnesota's last two games. In fact, we've won in three straight Lynx games, also hitting with them in their overtime victory over Connecticut three games back. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'over' as the oddsmakers continue to have a tough time adjusting these WNBA totals. The Lynx have scored 186 points over their last two games and figure to stay hot against a vulnerable Washington defense that has allowed six straight opponents to shoot better than 43% from the field, giving up 86 points or more in four of those contests. The good news for Washington is that its offense has come around, scoring over 80 points in three straight games. The Mystics might just have something in Myisha Hines-Allen, who has poured in 58 points in her last three games, while recording a double-double in all three contests. Ariel Atkins has also stepped up in the absence of Elena Delle-Donne, contributing at least 30 minutes in three straight games while scoring 67 points over that stretch (note that she is questionable to play on Tuesday due to a back injury). Meanwhile, the Lynx are getting production from all over the court right now. They had five players score in double-figures last time out as they dropped 100 points on the Dream. Kayla McBride continues to get better acclimated with the offense with each passing game and comes off a season-high 19 points last time out. Napheesa Collier has provided a big boost as well since returning to the lineup, averaging over 16 points per game to go along with four assists per game. Note that Minnesota has allowed north of 80 points in both previous road games this season, allowing the opposition to shoot 46.8% from the field. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Carolina at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams this season and we've yet to see the 'over' cash in consecutive matchups. Off Saturday's wild, high-scoring 6-4 Lightning victory (we won with Tampa Bay in that game), we'll back the 'under' in Tuesday's elimination game in Carolina. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 5-0 the last seven times the Lightning have attempted to close out a series, with those contests averaging just 3.8 total goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Canes playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, with those games also averaging a total of just 3.8 goals. It's also worth noting that the 'under' has gone 12-5 with the Lightning coming off a home win by two goals or more this season and 25-11 with Carolina playing at home off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-22-21 | Wings +1.5 v. Sun | 70-80 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
06-22-21 | England v. Czech Republic UNDER 2.25 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
06-21-21 | Dodgers v. Padres -124 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
06-21-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
06-21-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -183 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
06-21-21 | Indians v. Cubs -135 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
06-21-21 | Netherlands v. North Macedonia OVER 3 | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
06-20-21 | Golden Knights -174 v. Canadiens | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 216 | 103-96 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | 103-96 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
06-20-21 | White Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
06-20-21 | Wales v. Italy UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Rays -134 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 215 | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -1 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Lynx v. Wings -164 | Top | 77-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
06-19-21 | White Sox v. Astros -121 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
06-19-21 | A's +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Germany v. Portugal +0.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
06-18-21 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 157.5 | Top | 80-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
06-18-21 | White Sox v. Astros +103 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 103 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Golden Knights -158 v. Canadiens | 2-3 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
06-18-21 | 76ers -150 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Mets v. Nationals -113 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
06-18-21 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
06-18-21 | Czech Republic v. Croatia OVER 2.25 | 1-1 | Loss | -50 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
06-17-21 | Rays -165 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
06-17-21 | Brewers v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
06-17-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | 2-1 | Win | 119 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
06-17-21 | Lynx v. Wings -5 | 85-73 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
06-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -191 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
06-17-21 | Austria v. Netherlands -160 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
06-17-21 | North Macedonia v. Ukraine OVER 2.5 | 1-2 | Win | 109 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
06-16-21 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 154.5 | 80-85 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
06-16-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 223.5 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Switzerland v. Italy UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
06-16-21 | Switzerland v. Italy -154 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Sky v. Lynx OVER 159 | 105-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 217 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
06-15-21 | Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -182 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 22 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Portugal v. Hungary OVER 2.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
06-14-21 | Angels v. A's -159 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
06-14-21 | Marlins v. Cardinals -180 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
06-14-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 226 | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
06-14-21 | Czech Republic v. Scotland OVER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
06-14-21 | Czech Republic v. Scotland | 2-0 | Win | 106 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
06-13-21 | Mystics v. Dream OVER 165.5 | 78-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
06-13-21 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Ukraine v. Netherlands OVER 2.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
06-13-21 | Yankees v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Croatia v. England -165 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -190 | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
06-12-21 | Sparks v. Lynx -7.5 | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
06-12-21 | White Sox -162 v. Tigers | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
06-12-21 | Switzerland v. Wales OVER 1.75 | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
06-11-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
06-11-21 | Royals v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
06-11-21 | Astros v. Twins OVER 11 | 6-4 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
06-11-21 | Storm v. Dream +9.5 | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
06-11-21 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
06-11-21 | Giants v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
06-11-21 | Italy v. Turkey OVER 2.25 | 3-0 | Win | 105 | 30 h 22 m | Show | |
06-10-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
06-10-21 | Avalanche +127 v. Golden Knights | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 234 | 83-86 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -154 | Top | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
06-10-21 | Astros v. Red Sox -110 | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
06-10-21 | Rockies v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 4-11 | Win | 104 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
06-10-21 | Sparks v. Mystics -4 | 71-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Suns | 98-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
06-09-21 | Fever v. Sky UNDER 161 | 76-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
06-09-21 | Bruins v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Nationals v. Rays -156 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -156 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Astros v. Red Sox -134 | 8-3 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
06-09-21 | Storm v. Dream +10 | Top | 95-71 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Diamondbacks v. A's -210 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
06-09-21 | Israel v. Portugal -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
06-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -144 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -144 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
06-08-21 | Yankees -111 v. Twins | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
06-08-21 | Mariners +107 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 223 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
06-08-21 | Rockies v. Marlins -175 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
06-08-21 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Lynx v. Mystics OVER 166 | 81-85 | Push | 0 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
06-08-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |