Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-07-22 | Northern Kentucky -1.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 57-43 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Purdue-Fort Wayne at 9:30 pm et on Monday. |
|||||||
03-07-22 | Lakers v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Spurs enter Monday's game riding a four-game losing streak. They certainly haven't quit on the season though. That's evident by the fact that they've poured in 100+ points in nine straight games. The Spurs continue to apply a ton of pressure on opposing defenses, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in 10 consecutive contests. While they've continued to give up plenty of points as well, we have seen some signs of a potential turnaround, noting that they've held their last four opponents to 83, 89, 84 and 91 FG attempts. The Lakers are in a fairly obvious letdown spot here after a big upset win over the Warriors at home on Saturday. Consistency has certainly not been a part of the Lakers vocabulary this season and I expect that to hold true here. Note that Los Angeles has yielded 92+ FG attempts in three of its last four games, giving up 123, 109, 132 and 116 points over that stretch. Offensively, we've seen the Lakers manage to get off fewer than 90 FG attempts in four straight games, fortunate to knock down 40+ in each of their last two contests. There's not a lot of margin for error when it comes to the Lakers, especially with Anthony Davis remaining sidelined. Here, we'll note that the Lakers are just 13-28 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons and 9-18 ATS off a victory of any kind this season. The Spurs, meanwhile, are 38-24 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). |
|||||||
03-07-22 | Blazers v. Wolves UNDER 235 | Top | 81-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We just saw a track meet between these two teams two nights ago on this floor as the T'Wolves rolled to a 135-121 victory. Minnesota is on an incredible offensive run right now, having scored 127+ points in four straight games. Both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries - too many to mention. With that in mind, I'm not convinced either will be interested in another track meet on Monday. Note that the Blazers have held eight consecutive opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, they've gotten off 85 or less FG attempts themselves in four of their last five contests, held to 34 or fewer made field goals in three of those games. As I mentioned, the T'Wolves are on a scoring tear and have seen the 'over' cash in five straight games. The pace of play doesn't necessarily bear it out, however, noting that Minnesota has held four of its last five opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts. It has actually done a nice job defensively at home all season, giving up an average of just 38 made field goals per game on just north of 43% shooting. I expect this lofty total to prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-07-22 | Avalanche -190 v. Islanders | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over New York at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in the Islanders most recent game as they skated to a low-event 2-1 win over a suddenly struggling St. Louis squad on Saturday afternoon. Here, I won't hesitate to fade the Isles as they stay at home to host an Avs team that will undoubtedly be in an unforgiving mood after suffering rare consecutive losses. Note that Colorado has been held to just four goals over its last two games. That's happened over a two-game stretch only twice previously this season. In their next game they've gone 2-0, scoring nine goals in the process. I certainly anticipate Colorado bouncing back offensively here, noting that it will be facing Semyon Varlamov between the pipes for the Isles. The Isles have given up nine goals in Varlamov's last two starts and they've gone winless in his eight starts against non-conference opponents this season. Isles head coach Barry Trotz announced that there's still no timetable for Mat Barzal or Zdeno Chara's return, two key missing pieces. While it has picked up a few wins here and there over the last several weeks, there's no denying New York's season has been circling the drain for quite some time. Look for Colorado to get back in the win column on Monday. Take Colorado (5*). |
|||||||
03-07-22 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 230.5 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in the 76ers most recent game on Saturday in Miami with that result snapping their streak of six straight 'overs'. I believe the total will prove too high once again on Monday as the Sixers return home to host the reeling Bulls. Chicago desperately needs to stop the bleeding, having lost four straight games. The turnaround needs to start at the defensive end of the floor as they check in having allowed 112+ points in each of those four losses. Note that Chicago has allowed just 107.5 points per game after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons with those games totalling an average of 219.1 points. Note that despite allowing a boatload of points, the Bulls have done a better job of keeping their opponents scoring opportunities in check over the last three games, allowing 81, 84 and 88 field goal attempts. Prior to that they had allowed 90+ FG attempts in six of their last eight contests. On the flip side, the Bulls have shot the lights out over their last three games; 49%, 59% and 50%, respectively. I don't expect that to continue against a Sixers defense that has allowed fewer than 40 made field goals and less than 90 FG attempts in four of their last five games. Prior to Saturday's loss, Philadelphia had scored 123+ points in five straight games. Its pace certainly didn't support those gawdy point totals, noting that it got off 82 or fewer FG attempts in four of those five contests. Regression caught up with the Sixers on Saturday (I realize James Harden sat that game out, a key contributing factor as well) as they scored just 82 points on 34% shooting. While the 'over' has cashed in two of three previous meetings between these two teams this season, none of those games went 'over' the total we're dealing with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-07-22 | Levante v. Ath Bilbao UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Athletic Bilbao and Levante at 3 pm et on Monday. Yesterday we saw a wild, high-scoring La Liga match between Celta Vigo and Mallorca as we cashed with Celta in a 4-3 win. Here, I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks as Athletic hosts Levante with the first meeting between these two squads this season having resulted in a 0-0 draw back in November. I'm not convinced Levante will find many offensive opportunities in this match, let alone goals. It has scored just 12 times in 13 'away' matches in La Liga play this season and goes up against an Athletic squad that has conceded only 13 times in 12 'home' contests. Athletic's back line has performed reasonably well but the results haven't been there as it has dropped consecutive matches, first in La Liga play against Barcelona (0-4) and then in Copa Del Rey action against Valencia (0-1). Needless to say, scoring has been a bit of an issue, somewhat lacking in the dynamic talent department up front. Levante should offer plenty of opportunity for Athletic to bust out of its scoring slump but whether the latter can take full advantage remains to be seen. Note that Levante does bring terrific defensive form into this contest, having yielded just one goal in its last three matches, despite two of those three contests coming against the likes of top-10 sides Atletico Madrid and Celta Vigo. Here, we'll note that each of the last five matches between these two sides have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals. With Levante going winless in the last eight meetings it will simply be looking to hang on for a point here as it continues to fight its way out of the La Liga basement (and potential relegation). Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-06-22 | Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 130-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Denver at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. We've been riding the 'under' in Pelicans games since the All-Star break, cashing all three of our plays including in their last game as they dispatched the Jazz in stunning fashion in a 124-90 victory, easily cruising 'under' the total. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, noting that the 'under' is a perfect 10-0 with the Pelicans installed as a road underdog of six points or less this season, as is the case here (that situation has produced an average total of 209.2 points). Interestingly, in nine previous instances where the Pelicans have played on the road following consecutive home games, they've averaged only 102.0 points per game (compared to their season road scoring average of 104.6 points per game). The 'under' has gone 8-1 in that spot with an average total of just 207.6 points. Save for two offensive explosions against awful defensive opponents in the Kings and Blazers, the Nuggets have only been average offensively since the break. In five games since the break, they've reached 90 field goal attempts only once and that came in a game where they were in comeback mode in en eventual loss against the Thunder. The good news is, their defense has held up well, allowing 38 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans are as locked in at that end of the floor as any team in the league right now, having yielded 36 or fewer made field goals on less than 90 field goal attempts in four consecutive games. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone a perfect 4-0 over that stretch. The 'over' has cashed in two of three meetings between these two teams this season but only one of those games surpassed the total we're working with here (both teams shot better than 51% in that matchup back in early December). Note that six of nine meetings in this series over the last three seasons have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
03-06-22 | Senators v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Vegas at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The Senators are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in Arizona yesterday, falling by an 8-5 score against Arizona. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday, however, as they head to Las Vegas to take on the Golden Knights. Note that the 'under' is 15-4 with the Sens coming off an 'over' result this season, leading to an average total of just 4.9 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 15-2 when Ottawa follows up a game that saw 7+ total goals this season, as is the case here, resulting in only 4.5 total goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Knights check in off a 5-4 win in Anaheim on Friday. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 when they come off a road game in which both teams scored 3+ goals over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 5.1 goals in that situation. When the Knights play at home after scoring 5+ goals in their previous contest over the last two seasons, the 'under' has gone 23-13 in their next game, averaging just 5.0 total goals. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-06-22 | Stars v. Wild -140 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -140 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota over Dallas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Wild on Friday as they fell in stunning fashion on the road against the lowly Sabres. I do expect them to bounce back on Sunday, however, as they return home to host the Stars. Dallas is coming off an overtime win in Winnipeg on Friday. That sets the Stars up poorly here, noting that they've gone 3-10 when playing on the road off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. They're also just 2-9 after winning five or six of their last seven games over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscored by 2.0 goals on average in that situation. The Wild have been inexplicably struggling for weeks but they're well-positioned to bounce back here. Minnesota checks in 13-2 after allowing 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. The Wild are also a terrific 14-3 when coming off five or six losses over their last seven games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals along the way. You would have to go back four meetings here in Minnesota to find the last time the Stars skated to a win here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
|||||||
03-06-22 | Tulane +9.5 v. SMU | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over SMU at 3 pm et on Sunday. SMU won by nine points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. Tulane certainly had its opportunities in that game as it got off a whopping 65 field goal attempts (compared to SMU's 52) but simply couldn't knock anything down, making good on just 24 of those 65 attempts, including only 7-of-19 from beyond the arc in the home defeat. Note that SMU shot the lights out from three-point range in that game, knocking down 15 threes and also made good on five more free throw attempts than Tulane, yet still only won by nine. You could argue that the Green Wave enter this rematch in better form offensively. Since February 5th, they've poured in 30, 20, 29, 29, 23, 18 and 28 made field goals. Even in the game where they only hit 18 they still only lost by five points at Temple. SMU continues to struggle to contain opposing offenses, allowing 62 or more field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Not only that but the Mustangs offense has sagged, making good on just 39-of-107 FG attempts over their last two games. While SMU will be taking a step down in class here, I expect Tulane to keep things interesting. Take Tulane (8*). |
|||||||
03-06-22 | South Florida +8.5 v. Temple | Top | 47-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
American Athletic Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Sunday. South Florida enters Sunday's game against Temple on the heels of three consecutive ATS wins. While the Bulls have endured a tough season on the whole, they have undoubtedly been playing some of their best basketball down the stretch. Note that they've done a tremendous job defensively, limiting their last five opponents to 20, 22, 16, 19 and 24 made field goals. Meanwhile, Temple has sagged in that department lately, allowing at least 23 made field goals in five of its last six contests. The Owls offense had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down in their most recent game, falling by an 84-46 score at Houston. South Florida isn't Houston, but the fact is the Owls have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in four of their last five games. Keep in mind, the first time these two teams met this season South Florida prevailed by a 52-49 score, limiting Temple to just 18-of-49 from the field. There's actually plenty of room for improvement from the USF offense here after it knocked down only 20-of-55 FG attempts in that victory. The Bulls enter this game on a streak of nine straight games hitting at least 20 field goals. That's no big accomplishment for most teams, but it's certainly more than can be said for Temple which has been held to 18 or less field goals twice in its last seven contests. Here, we'll note that Temple checks in 0-6 ATS when coming off a road loss in which it scored 60 points or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 10.0 points in that situation. Take South Florida (10*). |
|||||||
03-06-22 | Mallorca v. Celta de Vigo -129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
La Liga Game of the Year. My selection is on Celta Vigo over Mallorca at 12:30 pm et on Sunday. We missed with Celta Vigo two matches back as it gave up a late goal in a 1-1 home draw against Levante. It followed up that disappointing draw with a loss, held off the scoresheet entirely in a 2-0 away loss against Atletico Madrid. Here, I'm confident we'll see the home side bounce back and deliver its first victory in four matches. Mallorca sits 16th in the table, just four points clear of relegation. While it could desperately use at least a point out of this match, it will be hard pressed to earn it given the fact that it hasn't managed to score a single goal in its last two contests and comes in on the heels of three consecutive losses. Note that Mallorca has managed to score only 10 'away' goals in 12 matches this season, conceding 27 along the way. Celta Vigo on the other hand has been air tight defensively at home, giving up only 16 goals in 13 matches. With keeper Dominik Greif again sidelined for Mallorca it will have to turn to struggling keeper Sergio Rico once again. This is a spot where I look for the Celta offense to 'get right' and help the squad earn a critical three points as it looks to close the gap on 9th and 10th placed Valencia and Osasuna, respectively. Take Celta Vigo (10*). |
|||||||
03-05-22 | Flames v. Avalanche -145 | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Calgary at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Flames check in off a loss to the Canadiens two nights ago. Losses have been few and far between for Calgary lately. In fact, the Flames haven't dropped consecutive games over their last 19 contests. I expect them to here, however. Colorado is coming off a disappointing 2-1 loss on the road against the lowly Coyotes. It wasn't for lack of trying as the Avs fired more than 40 shots on goal in that game. I certainly expect them to bounce back here, noting that they've gone 23-5 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average. While the Flames have given up a whopping 16 goals over their last four games, the Avs come in having allowed only 12 goals over their last five contests. Here, we'll note that Colorado is an incredible 16-1 when playing at home after winning five or six of its last seven games this season, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Take Colorado (6*). |
|||||||
03-05-22 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 227 | 116-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We came close to playing the 'under' in the Warriors most recent game but wisely laid off as that contest soared 'over' the total in Dallas. Here, I won't hesitate to back the 'under' as the Warriors head to Los Angeles to face the reeling Lakers. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a high-scoring game between the Warriors and Mavs two nights ago but both teams shot the lights out in a game that ultimately totalled 235 points. Having allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, I look for a strong response from the Golden State defense in this one. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in off an embarrassing loss to the rival Clippers on Thursday. Like the Warriors, they've also allowed three consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. At the other end of the court they've had a difficult enough time running their offense let alone scoring. They're just two games removed from a 95-point effort here at home against the Pelicans. They did shoot just shy of 49% from the field against the Clippers last time out but that was a game that warranted little intensity with the outcome never really in doubt as the Clips cruised to a 21-point victory. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-12 with the Warriors coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 218.6 points. The 'under' is 39-23 with the Lakers seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110+ points over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 215.9 points. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
03-05-22 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 221 | 82-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in the 76ers come-from-behind win over the Cavs last night - a game that somewhat surprisingly got into the 240's. Philadelphia once again shot the lights out in that contest, actually getting off only 75 field goal attempts but knocking down 41 of them in the win. Here, I expect the Sixers to face a lot more resistance against a Heat defense that allows opponents to shoot just 37-of-83 on average at home this season. Like the Sixers, the Heat shot exceptionally well in their most recent game, knocking down 40-of-77 shots in a road win over Brooklyn. That game still ultimately stayed 'under' the total and the 'under' has now cashed in seven of Miami's last 12 games overall. Note that these two teams have met twice previously this season. On both occasions one of the two squads was held under 100 points. Those two contests totalled just 197 and 207 points yet we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total for this one. Recency bias is certainly at play, too much so in my opinion. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-05-22 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs -205 | 6-4 | Loss | -205 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Vancouver at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Canucks enter this game off a solid 4-3 win over the Islanders two nights ago and have won two of the first three games on their current eastern road swing. Meanwhile, the Leafs are coming off a very ugly 5-1 loss to the Sabres on home ice. I don't expect Toronto will have any difficulty getting up for this bounce-back game against a Canucks squad they just dropped a 3-2 decision against in Vancouver back on February 12th. Note that Toronto is an incredible 17-3 when at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, allowing just 1.7 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. When seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent this season the Leafs have given up only 1.3 goals on average, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average (six-game sample size). Meanwhile, the Canucks are a woeful 11-27 when coming off a road win over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.9 goals on average in that spot and even worse, they're just 3-13 when following up a road win in which they scored 4+ goals over the last two seasons, allowing 3.9 goals on average while being outscored by 1.7 goals in that situation. Take Toronto (5*). |
|||||||
03-05-22 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6 | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Bruins enter this game off three straight 'over' results while the Blue Jackets have seen their last two games go 'over' the total. I'll go the other way on Saturday as the two teams match up in Columbus. Starting goaltenders have been confirmed with Jeremy Swayman manning the net for the Bruins and Elvis Merzlikins starting in a back-to-back spot for the Jackets. Swayman has been tremendous lately, posting a .965 save percentage over his last four games. Merzlikins has certainly been the Jackets best option as well, recording a .916 save percentage on home ice this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 15-7 with the Bruins playing on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. The B's enter this game having scored a whopping 15 goals over their last three contests. Note that they've accomplished that feat only twice previously this season, with the 'under' cashing in their next game on both occasions. Take the under (7*). |
|||||||
03-05-22 | Stanford v. Arizona State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We missed by the narrowest of margins with the 'under' in Stanford's last game against one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation in Arizona. Credit the Cardinal for at least slowing the Wildcats down enough to stay inside the pointspread in that game but it wasn't enough to keep it 'under' the total. Nevertheless, we'll go back to the well with the same play here as the Cardinal stay on the road to face a much slower-paced opponent in Arizona State. The Sun Devils have allowed just 22 made field goals on average here at home this season, limiting opponents to just under 64 points per game. Going back to February 12th, they've yielded just 18, 19, 21, 21, 21, 23 and 18 made field goals in their last seven contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed at a 5-2 clip over that stretch. While Arizona has also been shooting the ball well, fueling its current three-game winning streak and 6-1 run, I do think Stanford will pose a challenge here. The Cardinal have limited each of their last six opponents to 27 made field goals or fewer. Perhaps more importantly, they've been able to limit scoring opportunities in general, holding the opposition to 55 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last five games. Unfortunately for them, it hasn't translated to victories as their offense has been uneven at best, knocking down 21 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Wildcats up-tempo style was really the only thing that afforded Stanford the ability to approach 30 made field goals and 70 points last time out. I expect a different story to unfold here, noting that Stanford was held to 19-of-50 shooting, albeit in a winning effort, in its first meeting with Arizona State this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-05-22 | Dartmouth v. Harvard OVER 129.5 | Top | 76-54 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Harvard at 2 pm et on Saturday. When these teams matched up for the first time this season they combined to score only 119 points and as a result we're working with a lower posted total for this rematch. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair between the Big Green and Crimson. After a major offensive lull from January into early February, Dartmouth has started 'filling it up' again lately, knocking down 23, 28, 26 and 28 field goals in its last four contests, scoring 70+ points in three of those games. I'm confident the Big Green can continue their surge against a Harvard squad that has allowed 25+ made field goals in four of its last five games. On the flip side, we've seen the Crimson perform well offensively lately as well, even if the wins haven't come. They're coming off back-to-back losses but have knocked down 29, 28 and 29 field goals in their last three games, scoring 77, 67 and 73 points along the way. Note that Dartmouth hit only six three-pointers in its first meeting with Harvard this season but averages nine made threes per contest on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-05-22 | Blues v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and New York at 12:35 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in early action on Saturday. The Blues are coming off a wild 5-3 loss against the Rangers on Wednesday. They've had a couple of day to stew over that poor defensive effort and should come back strong in this spot. Note that the 'under' is 36-21 with the Blues coming off an 'over' result over the last two seasons. Better still, the 'under' is 46-29 with St. Louis off a game that totalled seven goals or more over the last three seasons. The Isles continue to struggle and enter this game following consecutive losses against the Avalanche and Canucks, allowing nine goals in the process. Keep in mind, New York allows just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season, leading to an average total of only 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 15-4 with the Isles playing at home off consecutive 'over' results, with an average total of only 4.0 goals in that situation. The 'under' is also an incredible 11-2 after New York scores 3+ goals in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 4.2 goals. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-05-22 | Alabama v. LSU UNDER 152.5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Alabama and LSU at 12 noon et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two SEC rivals totalled only 137 points this season. We're actually dealing with a higher posted total this time around, largely due to recent high-scoring results from both teams. I see a different story unfolding on Saturday, however. Note that LSU has held the opposition to an average of 19-for-54 shooting here at home this season. After falling short in a high-scoring game against Arkansas last time out, I'm not sure the Tigers want to get involved in a track meet against a more athletic Alabama squad here. The Crimson Tide's most recent game reached 158 points against Texas A&M but that was only thanks to both teams shooting the lights out. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair. I don't expect the Tide to have such a difficult time containing an LSU offense that has topped out at 28 made field goals over its last four games and averages that exact number here at home this season. Keep in mind, in the first matchup between these two teams, LSU knocked down 10 three-pointers, well north of its season average, yet still only got to 67 points. Alabama benefited from 32 trips to the free throw line in that contest, a number I don't expect it to approach with the scene shifting to Baton Rouge for this rematch. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-05-22 | SpVgg Greuther Furth v. VfL Bochum -124 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Bundesliga Game of the Year. My selection is on Bochum over Gruether Furth at 9:30 am et on Saturday. Bochum hasn't been able to regain the magic it found in its massive upset win over Bayern Munich back on February 12th, going winless in three matches since including a 2-1 loss to Freiburg in DFB Cup action last time out. This looks like an excellent opportunity for it to get back on track as hit hosts last-place Greuther Furth on Saturday. Furth sits at the bottom of the Bundesliga table, five points back of 17th-place Stuttgart entering Saturday's action. To make matters worse, it has claimed just one point in 12 'away' matches this season. While Bochum has been first to concede in six consecutive matches, this is a favorable matchup as Furth has managed to score just six first half goals in 12 'away' matches this season while conceding 15. All told, Furth has yielded a whopping 44 goals away from home this season while Bochum has done a tremendous job of protecting its own goal at home, giving up just 11 goals in 12 matches. Winless in its last three matches and with a very difficult slate ahead this is a key spot for Bochum, which can potentially move inside the top-10 with a victory on Saturday. With Furth all but set to be relegated, it can likely only hang its hat on playing the role of spoiler against the big boys in the Bundesliga in the coming weeks. I'm not convinced it gets up for this one. Take Bochum (10*). |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Knicks v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Suns most recent game - a 120-90 win over the Blazers two nights ago. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Friday, however, as Phoenix hosts the reeling Knicks. New York has essentially stopped playing defense entirely, checking in having allowed 111 points or more in 11 consecutive games. The Knicks are coming off consecutive matchups with the 76ers with Philadelphia putting up 125 and 123 points without hardly breaking a sweat. Philadelphia actually let up in those two contests, attempting just 78 and 75 field goals, yet still managed to get well north of 120 points in both games. While the Suns are without both Chris Paul and Devin Booker, they're still capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard against bad defensive teams, as they showed in scoring 120 points against Portland on Wednesday. Note that Cam Payne made his return to the lineup in that game and while he contributed only five points, he was a difference-maker in 20 minutes of action, dishing out eight assists in the victory. I look for the Suns to continue to force the issue here without Booker and Paul, with consecutive home losses against the Pelicans and Jazz still fresh in their minds. While the Knicks aren't stopping anyone right now, they have continued to produce offensively, scoring 100 or more points in 13 consecutive games. The duo of Jerome Randle and R.J. Barrett continue to pad their stats on a nightly basis. They put up 108 points against a good Sixers defense despite getting only three points on 1-of-8 shooting from Evan Fournier two nights ago. Fournier is a streaky shooter but generally bounces back from bad performances. Just two games ago he shot 9-of-16 from the field in a 24-point effort. The Suns are a quality defensive team and allow just 105.6 points per game on the season, however they've given up 110.9 points per game when coming off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with the 'over' cashing at a 23-12 clip in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Jazz v. Pelicans UNDER 228.5 | 90-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. While the Jazz have seen their last three games fly 'over' the total the Pelicans check in off of three consecutive 'under' results. We actually won with the 'under' in New Orleans' most recent game - a blowout victory over the Kings two nights ago. This is a game where I look for the Jazz to 'manage' proceedings in some sense after an overtime game in Houston and in the midst of a brutal stretch that sees them play at least every other day from now through April 2nd. That's right, Utah won't enjoy consecutive days off until April 3rd and 4th. So on the heels of three consecutive wild, tightly-contested, dare I say energy-draining wins coming out of the All-Star break, I'm expecting Utah to take a more measured approach to this winnable road game. I call it a 'winnable' game as let's face it, they all are for a team as talented as the Jazz. With that being said, the Pelicans should offer some resistance as they come in playing exceptionally well, winners of three straight games coming out of the break. They've held four of their last nine opponents to fewer than 100 points (that's a considerable accomplishment by today's NBA standards). Each of their last four opponents have gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The pace of the Pelicans most recent game against Sacramento didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result (they put up 125 points on 88 FG attempts) but they shot the lights out, knocking down 59.1% of their attempts. I'm certainly not expecting a repeat performance here as Utah hasn't allowed more than 88 FG attempts in any of its last seven games and should bounce back defensively after yielding 50%+ shooting in each of its last two contests. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 220 | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 76ers have now seen each of their last five games go 'over' the total. It's not a sustainable run in my opinion, especially considering the pace they've been playing at. Note that Philadelphia's last three 'over' results have had more to do with the inept nature of their opponent's defense than anything else (T'Wolves and two against the Knicks). The Sixers have actually attempted 82 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games. Over that stretch they had one game where they only hit 23 of them. They also enter this game having held each of their last three opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. Now they host a slumping Cavs squad that has scored fewer than 100 points in three of their last six games. We can anticipate Cleveland at least playing with some purpose defensively off consecutive losses, more than we could say for the Sixers last three opponents. Note that Cleveland has limited seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. These two teams just met back on February 12th and the game totalled only 196 points. The Sixers didn't have James Harden for that one and while he's certainly a difference-maker, I'm not convinced the big adjustment to the total is warranted (that game saw a closing total of 210.5). Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Red Wings v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Friday. There are times when the oddsmakers simply can't set a total high enough and I believe that's the case for Friday's matchup between the Red Wings and Lightning in Tampa. Detroit is a mess in goal right now with regular starter Alex Nedeljkovic struggling mightily, having posted a ridiculous .825 save percentage over his last four starts. Backup Thomas Greiss isn't necessarily a better option though. He owns a .865 save percentage in 10 road games (nine starts) this season, with the 'over' cashing in seven of those nine starts. The good news for Detroit is that it has been scoring with some consistency. The Wings have scored three goals or more in 13 of their last 16 games. Tonight they'll likely get the opportunity to go against Lightning backup goaltender Brian Elliott. He owns a .902 save percentage this season but that number drops to .873 here at home. The 'over' is 7-1 in his eight starts. The Lightning will undoubtedly be in a foul mood following last night's lifeless effort in a 5-1 loss to the Penguins. That really came out of nowhere as they had been lighting it up offensively, scoring 4, 6, 5, 3 and 5 goals over their last five games. Note that the 'over' is 7-1 with the Bolts coming off a loss by 3+ goals this season. They've averaged a whopping 5.1 goals per game in that situation with an average total of 7.7 goals. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Devils v. Rangers -152 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Rangers have taken seven straight meetings against the Devils and I don't believe this is the spot where New Jersey finally turns the tide. New York still has losses against Pittsburgh and Vancouver fresh in its mind despite an impressive win over St. Louis on Wednesday. This is obviously a key spot for the Blueshirts before they head out on a four-game road trip. Here, they're in one of their more favorable spots, having held opponents to just 1.6 goals per game, outscoring them by an average margin of 1.3 goals when playing at home off a home win this season (eight-game sample size). Better still, New York is 10-1 this season, averaging 3.6 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average, when coming off consecutive games in which it allowed 3+ goals, as is the case here. New Jersey, meanwhile, is a woeful 11-32 when coming off two losses in its last three games over the last two seasons, allowing 3.7 goals on average in that spot. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Penguins v. Hurricanes UNDER 6.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Penguins exploded for five goals in an unlikely blowout win in Tampa last night while the Hurricanes were blanked by a 4-0 score in Washington. I believe we're set up for a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in Raleigh on Friday night, even after the lone previous meeting this season totalled seven goals on February 20th. Note that the Penguins allow just 2.3 goals per game on the road this season while the Canes are giving up only 2.2 goals per contest on home ice. Carolina has allowed eight goals over its last two games and that's notable as it has happened on only five previous occasions this season. In the Canes next game after giving up 8+ goals over a two-game stretch they've allowed only 1, 3, 1, 3 and 0 goals with the 'under' cashing in three of those five contests. Here, we'll also note that the 'under' is 12-2 with the Canes playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 29-12 with Carolina coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.2 goals in that situation. Pittsburgh scored five goals last night but had been held to a grand total of nine goals over its previous five games. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Wild -200 v. Sabres | 4-5 | Loss | -200 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Believe it or not, this is a revenge spot for the Wild after they stunningly dropped a 3-2 decision at home against the Sabres as a -320 home favorite back in mid-December. Minnesota certainly isn't playing its best hockey right now but it is coming off a come-from-behind win in Philadelphia last night - the type of win that can build some positive vibes for a team. Note that the Wild have failed to register consecutive wins over an eight-game stretch currently - their longest such stretch of the season. I expect it to end here. Note that Minnesota is 7-1 after losing five or six of its last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. Better still, they're an incredible 13-1 after giving up 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals while averaging 3.9 goals per game in that situation. As for the Sabres, they've gone 0-6 when returning home off consecutive road games this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. Take Minnesota (5*). |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Bowling Green v. Toledo OVER 165 | Top | 56-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Toledo at 6:30 pm et on Friday. This game has 'track meet' written all over it. While we're dealing with a very high posted total, I believe it could be even higher. Bowling Green hasn't had any success in slowing the pace although I'm not sure it really has any interest in doing so. The Falcons have allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Opponents have been 'filling it up' against BGSU, knocking down 28, 34, 44, 28, 27, 28 and 26 field goals over its last seven contests. Enter Toledo. The Rockets have lit it up, making good on 105 field goals in their last three games alone, scoring 92, 88 and 92 points in those three contests. The Rockets play at an even faster pace than the Falcons, yielding 63+ field goal attempts to opponents in six of their last seven games. That should open the door for the Falcons capable offense to go off as well in an effort to keep up. BGSU has been fairly consistent offensively, knocking down 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Friday's contest. The Falcons didn't shoot particularly well in the first meeting between these two teams this season, but still made good on 30 FG attempts including 10 from beyond the arc for 78 points in a game that totalled 169 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-04-22 | Sevilla v. Alavés UNDER 2 | 0-0 | Win | 105 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Deportivo Alaves and Sevilla at 3 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring La Liga affairs last weekend with Sevilla securing a thrilling 2-1 victory over Real Betis and Deportivo Alaves sharing the points in a 2-2 draw against Getafe. Here, I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks as these two squads kick off the new La Liga week. I fully expect both sides to come out with their guard up in this one, noting that both Alaves and Sevilla have managed to strike first in four of their last five matches, respectively. With that being said, Sevilla has had little trouble controlling proceedings in recent meetings between the two Spanish sides, going undefeated in the last nine matches, scoring first in five of the last seven. In fact, Alaves has gone nine consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet in this series. With relegation a distinct possibility for the first time in a number of years, this is without a doubt a key match for the home side, which has found some success in the hosts role this season. If Alaves are to come away with a point, they're likely going to need to keep this one scoreless for as long as possible, noting that Sevilla has been incredibly stingy, allowing only 18 goals in 26 La Liga matches this season. Finally, we'll note that eight of the last 10 matches between these two sides have totalled less than 2.5 goals. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 116.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and San Diego State at 11 pm et on Thursday. There are times where the oddsmakers simply can't set a total low enough (or high enough) and I feel this is such a spot. Fresno State checks in off a relatively high-scoring 71-68 win over New Mexico last time out. Meanwhile, San Diego State has seen its last two games go 'over' the total. That only helps to keep this number in a playable range for us on Thursday. Both teams are capable of playing stout defense and slowing the game to a crawl. In fact, they prefer it that way. Fresno State has held opponents to an average of 22-of-50 shooting on the road this season while San Diego State has been even better here at home, limiting the opposition to just 20-of-53 field goals and only five made threes per game. While both teams are capable of 'filling it up' against the weaker teams in the Mountain West, that's rarely been the case in matchups with the conference's power teams. Note that the first meeting between the Bulldogs and Aztecs this season totalled just 105 points. We saw just 37 combined field goals made in that contest. The only thing that ended up boosting the total north of the century mark was the fact that the two teams knocked down 15 threes. Keep in mind, Fresno State and San Diego State combine to average just 12 made threes per game this season so a repeat performance isn't necessarily a sure thing in that regard. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with Fresno coming off an ATS loss this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-3 with the Aztecs following up consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 219 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10 pm et on Thursday. This will be the third meeting between these two teams since the start of February and while I often suggest that familiarity lends itself to lower-scoring basketball, I don't believe that will be the case in this particular spot. The Lakers have seen their last four games stay 'under' the total, helping keep this number in check on Thursday. Keep in mind, we're working with a considerably lower posted total than we saw in the most recent meeting between these two L.A. rivals just a week ago. The Clippers check in off three consecutive 'under' results. With that being said, they've actually been allowing opponents to get out and run, with each of their last five opponents getting off at least 90 field goal attempts. The fact that three of their last four games have come against the lowly Rockets has certainly contributed to their recent run of low-scoring games in my opinion. The last time these two teams met the Lakers got off 93 field goal attempts but knocked down less than 42% of them. I do look for them to improve on that shooting percentage here. What I'm not sure they can fix in short order is their defense, or lack thereof. The Lakers have yielded 40+ made field goals in six of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 43, 48, 40, 51, 41, 34 and 42 field goals in their last seven contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-5 with the Clips playing at home off a road win over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 226.2 points. Better still, the 'over' is 11-1 with the Clippers coming off three consecutive games in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 235.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 147.5 | 69-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and Arizona at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a 91-71 blowout win at USC on Tuesday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats begin a two-game homestand to close out the regular season. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 142 points. We're dealing with a slightly lower posted total this time around but I'm not sure enough of an adjustment was made. Stanford got off a whopping 70 field goal attempts in that game yet still only got to 57 points. Here, I don't expect the Cardinal to attempt nearly as many shots, noting that they've gotten off just 54, 58, 49 58, 54 and 51 FG attempts over their last six contests. On the flip side, Stanford has done a good job of keeping opposing offenses in check lately, limiting its last five opponents to 70 points or less on 57 or fewer FG attempts. Arizona will obviously always be looking to push the pace, but I'm not convinced it will have to for a full 40 minutes here, noting it checks in as a nearly 20-point favorite at home. While the Wildcats offense gets all of the press, their defense deserves some credit as well as they've held opponents to just north of 62 points per game on a paltry 36% shooting at home this season. Stanford doesn't figure to pose much of a threat to those numbers as it averages just 22 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Memphis v. South Florida UNDER 131.5 | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and South Florida at 9 pm et on Thursday. South Florida enters this game off four consecutive 'under' results while Memphis saw its most recent game stay 'under' the total despite scoring 80+ points in a rout of Wichita State. I look for another relatively low-scoring affair when the two teams meet up for their only regular season matchup on Thursday night. South Florida plays at an incredibly slow pace at home. For as poorly as things have gone for the Bulls at times this season, they have held opponents to just 61.3 points per game on 22-for-53 shooting on average here at home this season. The enter this game in fine form defensively, fresh off an upset win at Cincinnati, having held the opposition to just 20, 22, 16 and 19 made field goals over their last four games. Even with Memphis playing at a fairly fast pace lately, it has still managed to hold consecutive opponents to just 21 made field goals. Going back further, nine of the Tigers last 11 opponents have made good on 23 or fewer field goal attempts. Memphis itself has gotten off fewer than 60 FG attempts in four of its last five games. The only reason it was able to break 80 points last time out was because it shot the lights out (55% from the field). I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Kings v. Spurs OVER 240 | 115-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Kings loss in New Orleans last night. We also won with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game - a loss in Memphis on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the two teams meet up in San Antonio. Neither of these teams are playing a lick of defense right now. The Kings have allowed four of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, giving up 40 or more field goals in 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Spurs have been even worse. Their last three opponents have knocked down 59, 47 and 48 field goals, all shooting better than 53% from the field. Offensively, the Spurs continue to roll, having put up 105 points or more in seven straight games, eclipsing the 120-point mark in four of those contests. While the Kings have hit a bit of a lull and were held under 100 points last night, I don't think they'll need to be coerced into getting involved in a track meet here. Prior to last night's game, Sacramento had scored 110+ points in four consecutive games. While we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total than we saw in the two previous matchups between these two teams this season, I believe the adjustment is warranted. Note that the last time these two squared off in San Antonio, they combined to score 253 points back in November. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Pistons v. Raptors UNDER 218.5 | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Pistons enter Thursday's game in Toronto riding a 4-0-1 'over' run. Going back a little further, the 'over' is 6-1-1 in their last eight contests. I'm not convinced the pace has been there to warrant such a run, however, and I expect the tide to turn on Thursday night. Note that none of Detroit's last six opponents have gotten off more than 89 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Pistons have managed to shoot considerably better than their season average over their last three contests. I'm confident we'll see the Raptors defense step up and keep the Detroit offense in check here, noting that Toronto has limited eight of its last nine opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Raps themselves have been playing at a fairly fast pace but I suspect they'll look to 'manage' proceedings a bit here, noting that this is the front half of a back-to-back, not to mention the middle of a stretch that will see them play seven games in 10 nights. Toronto has done a terrific job of limiting the oppositions scoring opportunities here at home this season, holding them to an average of 38-of-83 shooting, while giving up less than 106 points per contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with Detroit coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average of only 212.6 total points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 29-9 with Toronto coming off two or more consecutive wins over division opponents, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Canucks v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and New York at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Canucks have seen each of their last six games go 'over' the total but I look for that streak to come to an end on Thursday. Note that Vancouver still averages just 2.8 goals per game on the road this season and checks in averaging just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a road loss by 3+ goals over the last two seasons (19-game sample size), as is the case here following Monday's 7-2 loss in New Jersey. Backup goaltender Jaro Halak started that game. We should see Thatcher Demko back between the pipes for this one, noting that he has recorded a terrific .945 save percentage over his last four games. The Islanders are back home following a long road trip that wrapped up with a 5-3 loss in Colorado two nights ago. Note that the 'under' is 19-7 with New York coming off a game in which it allowed 5+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Isles having scored 3+ goals in consecutive games this season as they've averaged just 2.2 goals per game in that spot. That's 0.4 goals per game lower than their season scoring average. New York will likely be without one of its top offensive threats again tonight in Mat Barzal as he continues to deal with a leg injury. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
03-03-22 | Hurricanes v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Now that we have confirmation of the goaltending matchup, we can step in with a play on the 'under' in this divisional showdown. We actually won with the 'over' in the Caps most recent game - a wild 5-3 home loss to the Maple Leafs. With that being said, we lost with the 'under' in the Canes most recent game - a 4-3 overtime loss in Detroit two nights ago. We probably deserved a better fate in that one as the score was tied 1-1 entering the third period and was still 2-2 with less than five minutes remaining. Nevertheless, I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday. The Canes started backup goaltender Antti Rantta in Detroit but will turn back to Frederik Andersen for this one. Andersen has been terrific, posting a .942 save percentage over his last four games. Going back over his last seven starts you'll see that the Canes gave up 0, 3, 3, 3, 3, 0 and 1 goal in those contests with the 'under' going 4-3. The Caps will have Vitek Vanecek back for his first start in over a month. He came on in relief of an ineffective Ilya Samsonov against Toronto on Monday and allowed just a single goal. In Vanecek's last 10 starts, the Caps allowed 2, 2, 3, 0, 3, 4, 2, 1, 0 and 3 goals with the 'under' cashing at a 6-4 clip. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Hurricanes playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-02-22 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Suns are having a difficult time adjusting to life without Chris Paul, having dropped consecutive games at home against the Pelicans and Jazz. I am confident we'll see them 'get right' on Wednesday as they host a reeling Blazers squad, but I'm more comfortable playing the 'under' than I am laying the points. Note that Phoenix has allowed just 105.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (39-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 218.1 total points and a 14-25 o/u record. When coming off an 'over' result this season, we've seen the Suns give up just 104 points per contest, leading to an average total of 218.5 points (28-game sample size). The Blazers check in allowing 112.6 points per game on the season, but that number drops to 109.4 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, leading to an o/u record of 5-14 in that spot. This is a game the Suns will want to 'manage' as it tips off a stretch of five games in eight nights (in four different cities). Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, and with a number of key injuries including one to Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers have managed to score only 95 and 92 points in two games since the All-Star break. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-02-22 | LSU v. Arkansas UNDER 142 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between LSU and Arkansas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. While we're dealing with a lower posted total for this game than we did for that previous matchup, I'm not sure enough of an adjustment has been made. LSU has done a nice job defensively over the last month or so but unfortunately its offense hasn't always lived up to its end of the bargain. The Tigers have held five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals while limiting five straight opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. It was actually their most recent opponent that got off those 56 attempts, that being Missouri in a game where it scored just 55 points on 20 made field goals. The Tigers are allowing just 24 made FG's per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Arkansas rolls into this matchup off four straight wins. While it did manage to come away victorious in both games, I'm not convinced it wants the pace up around where it was in its last two contests against Florida and Kentucky. Prior to allowing 26 and 30 made field goals in their last two games, the Razorbacks had held four of their previous five opponents to 24 made FG's or less, giving up 21 or less in three of those contests. The Hogs filled up the boxscore in their last two games but are also just two games removed from knocking down only 18 field goals in a very low-scoring game against Tennessee (106 total points). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 with LSU coming off consecutive ATS wins this season and 11-3 with Arkansas having won six or seven of its last eight games ATS over the last two seasons. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
03-02-22 | Kings v. Stars -139 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Los Angeles at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. We've had a good handle on games involving the Stars lately, going six-for-six with our last six plays. Here, I like the spot for the Stars as they look to make the most of this two-game homestand (they won the opener 4-2 over Buffalo) before heading out on the road for seven of their next eight games. Note that Dallas has been terrific on home ice this season, going 19-8, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average. Also note that the Stars are a perfect 6-0 when at home seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 4+ goals this season, as is the case here following a 4-0 loss in Los Angeles back in early December. They've averaged 4.7 goals per game and outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. The Kings check in off an ugly 7-0 loss to the Bruins at home on Monday. That's the type of defeat that can linger a bit, especially given the fact it snapped the Kings five-game winning streak. Los Angeles is a solid 15-11 on the road this season but the margins have been slim as it has only outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.1 goals. While Jake Oettinger has been terrific between the pipes for Dallas lately, recording a .935 save percentage over his last four games, the Kings duo of Petersen and Quick has struggled. Petersen has posted a .892 save percentage over his last four games while Quick has recorded a .871 save percentage over his last four. Take Dallas (7*). |
|||||||
03-02-22 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 234.5 | 95-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. While this game is being priced as a potential track meet in the betting marketplace, I believe the total will prove too high. The Kings have been shooting the lights out lately but I'm not convinced it continues here. The pace hasn't necessarily been there but the Kings have seen three of their last four games go 'over' the total, despite the fact that they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in all four of those games while also limiting their opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last three contests. The new-look Pelicans should pose a considerable challenge here. New Orleans has come out of the break holding the Suns and Lakers to 36-of-82 and 35-of-84 shooting, respectively, in posting consecutive wins. We'll see if their offensive surge will continue at home, where they average 109 points per game on 40 made field goals including only 11 made three-pointers per game here in the Big Easy this season. The Kings have limited the Pelicans to 109 and 99 points in two previous meetings this season. While the addition of C.J. McCollum has certainly provided a boost, I can see this as a big of a letdown spot for the home side, helping keep this one 'under' the inflated total. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-02-22 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | 108-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met on Sunday in New York in a game that totalled 234 points. We're dealing with a higher posted total as a result for this one, but I don't believe the adjustment is warranted. Keep in mind, Sunday's game saw a whopping 79 free throw attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see a similar story unfold here, noting that the first two meetings between these two teams this season totalled only 211 and 199 points with no more than 32 free throw attempts in either contest. The 76ers average just 107.1 points per game when playing at home off a victory this season, as is the case here (19-game sample size). When playing at home following an 'over' result, that number drops to 104.3 points with an average total of just 207.3 points (12-game sample size). Finally, I'll point to the fact that the 'under' is 31-18 in the last 49 meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
03-02-22 | Pacers v. Magic OVER 232.5 | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw this same matchup two nights ago with the Magic cruising to a 119-103 victory over the Pacers, easily staying 'under' the total. That was a tough back-to-back spot for the Pacers. Here, I expect them to put up more of a fight and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring affair. Indiana has now scored more than 100 points in eight straight games. The problem is it has also allowed 100+ points in all eight of those games, with those eight opponents all scoring 107 or more points. Interestingly, the Pacers have allowed a whopping 123.9 points per game in games where the total has been posted at 230 points or higher over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Magic have topped out at 119 points this season, reaching that number on three different occasions. They enter tonight's game having posted exactly 119 points in consecutive games - in other words, they're playing their best offensive basketball of the season. Like the Pacers, they've had trouble keeping the ball out of their own basket, however, allowing 103 points or more in six straight games. They've actually been worse defensively at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 112.0 points per game here in Orlando. We've certainly seen the Magic make a concerted effort to push the pace a little more than usual lately, hoisting up 90+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games, knocking down 40+ field goals in all four contests. The Pacers will certainly afford them plenty of scoring opportunities in this one, noting that they've yielded 91, 101 (overtime), 91 and 96 FG attempts in their last four games. The 'over' checks in 13-3 over their last 16 contests. Take the over (6*). |
|||||||
03-02-22 | Duquesne v. George Washington -7.5 | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on George Washington minus the points over Duquesne at 7 pm et on Wednesday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team struggling as badly as Duquense right now. The Dukes haven't won a game since January 8th and check into Wednesday's clash with George Washington having made a grand total of 79 field goals over their last four games, scoring 55 points or less in all four of those contests. On the flip side, they're not really offering up any defensive resistance, having allowed 29, 31, 29 and 27 made field goals over that stretch, despite none of those games being played at all that quick of a pace (those four opponents topped out at 59 field goal attempts). George Washington got bogged down by as superior George Mason squad on the road last time out but has been playing well in the longer-term picture, having gone 9-2 ATS over its last 11 games. Credit the Colonials for limiting George Mason to just 21 made field goals in that 69-62 loss on Saturday. GWU has held three straight opponents to 56 field goal attempts or fewer. If it can do that here it should be able to win in a walk, noting that it yielded a whopping 76 FG attempts in its last matchup with Duquesne on February 16th but still gave up only 52 points in a 21-point win. Take George Washington (9*). |
|||||||
03-02-22 | Real Sociedad v. Mallorca UNDER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mallorca and Real Sociedad at 3 pm et on Wednesday. A key match for both of these sides as Real Sociedad looks to draw into one of the coveted top-six spots in the table while Mallorca tries to distance itself further from potential relegation. Neither side has been all that inspiring lately and I'm anticipating just such an affair on Wednesday. Mallorca has gone 11 matches without posting a clean sheet and will be hard-pressed to break that streak here but I do think we see it put forth a valiant effort. Note that Mallorca has allowed just 12 goals in 13 home matches in La Liga play this season. On the flip side though, Mallorca has also only scored 13 goals in those 13 home matches. Considering Sociedad hasn't yielded a single goal in its last four dates with Mallorca (all victories), it's likely to be tough sledding offensively for the home side in this one. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC OVER 149 | 91-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and USC at 11 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 135 points. Both teams are coming off 'under' results. Those two factors only serve to keep Tuesday's posted total in check. Both teams are giving up a ton of opportunities right now. Arizona has allowed 12 of its last 13 opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Its only opponent over that stretch that didn't top the 60 FG mark was Washington and that was a game that still reached 160 points. USC has allowed 60+ FG attempts in six straight games. The Trojans aren't likely to force the Wildcats into a slugfest here and even if they could, that type of contest likely wouldn't favor them anyway given that the first meeting between these two teams this season was relatively low-scoring and still went Arizona's way by nine points. USC does come in having knocked down 59 shots in its last two games. The Trojans have won six games in a row and haven't seen consecutive games stay 'under' the total since February 3rd and 5th. Take the over (6*). |
|||||||
03-01-22 | Bruins v. Ducks +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Anaheim +1.5 goals over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We were on the wrong side of the Bruins stunning 7-0 win in Los Angeles last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same puck-line play, this time in support of the Ducks on Tuesday. Boston is expected to turn to Linus Ullmark in goal tonight. That's worth noting as while last night's starter Jeremy Swayman has recorded an incredible .964 save percentage over his last four games, Ullmark has posted an .896 save percentage over his last four starts. In fact, you would have to go back 10 starts to find the last time the Bruins won a game by multiple goals with Ullmark in goal (5-1 win on January 12th at home against Montreal). Note that the Bruins are in a back-to-back spot here, a situation they've gone just 4-10 in, outscored by an average margin of 1.5 goals, over the last three seasons. They're also just 1-5 when playing on the road off five or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that situation as well. Finally, I'll point out that Boston has averaged just 2.1 goals per game and has been outscored by 0.6 goals on average when playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last three seasons (15-game sample size), as is the case here after Anaheim skated to a 5-3 win in Boston back in January. The Ducks check in off consecutive home losses but have played .500 hockey here this season, outscoring opponents by 0.3 goals on average. Take Anaheim +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
03-01-22 | Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' when these two teams last met back on February 20th as the Golden Knights skated to a 4-1 win in San Jose. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. It's worth noting that the Knights have actually been a weaker defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing 3.1 goals per game, good for a 16-11-2 o/u record and an average total of 6.3 goals scored. After being held to just 10 goals in their last six games combined, the Knights are certainly looking for an opportunity to bust out of their scoring slump, and this would appear to be an ideal spot to do just that, noting that they've scored 23 goals in their last five meetings with the Sharks and have won 12 of 13 matchups in this series over the last three seasons. The 'under' has cashed in each of Vegas' last three games - matching its longest such streak of the season. The last time it posted three straight 'unders', it followed it up with a 5-4 home win over the Ducks. As for the Sharks, note that the 'over' is 9-1 when they come off consecutive games totalling four goals or less over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.9 goals in that spot. Take the over (9*). |
|||||||
03-01-22 | Cincinnati v. Houston UNDER 136.5 | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Houston at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The Bearcats were embarrassed by Houston 80-58 on their home floor back on February 6th. In fact, this series has been all Cougars lately as they've taken each of the last three meetings by 20+ points. I do expect Cincinnati to put up more of a fight on Tuesday but if it is going to accomplish that, it will need to tighten things up defensively. The good news is, the Bearcats have done a better job of keeping opposing offenses under wraps on the road than they have at home this season. Note that they allow just 23 made field goals including only five made threes per game on the road this season. Houston has of course been lights out defensively all season but particularly of late. The Cougars have limited opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last 11 games. With the Bearcats having only managed to score 52, 54 and 58 points against them in their last three meetings there's a low probability that the Cougars suddenly get blitzed here. Note that Houston allows a ridiculously-low 18 made field goals including only six made threes per game here at home this season. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
03-01-22 | Clippers v. Rockets +7 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Rockets took the Clippers down to the wire two nights ago, ultimately losing that game by a single point. While Houston has now lost nine consecutive games, it continues to do a nice job of controlling the tempo of the opposition, limiting four of its last five opponents to sub-90 field goal attempts. The problem is, the opposition has been making the most of those attempts, with 12 of its last 13 opponents shooting better than 50% from the field. The good news is, the Rockets limited the Clippers to 44% shooting on Sunday, giving them something to build off of here. Note that the Clips are at the opposite end of the spectrum, having allowed four straight opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts. I certainly expect to see Houston improve on its 38% shooting effort on Sunday. Los Angeles enters this game off of three consecutive wins but is just 5-14 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, as is the case here, and has actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 points in that spot. All told, the Clips are 14-18 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by 2.3 points per game. Take Houston (10*). |
|||||||
03-01-22 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Jets | 4-8 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Since dropping a 5-3 decision against Buffalo on Super Bowl Sunday, the Canadiens have reeled off five consecutive wins, not coincidentally turning things around since Martin St. Louis replaced Dominique Ducharme as head coach. I like the way this spot sets up for the Habs as well and we'll grab the insurance goal as the price warrants such a play. Note that Winnipeg is coming off a come-from-behind 5-3 win in Arizona on Sunday. That puts it in a poor situation here noting that it has gone 0-6 when coming off a road win by two goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.2 goals in that spot. When playing at home off a win by 2+ goals over a division opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here, the Jets have gone just 5-13, outscored by 1.0 goal on average. They're also just 9-17 when playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Finally, we'll note that the Jets have averaged a woeful 1.6 goals and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals when coming off a road victory in which they scored 4+ goals this season (five-game sample size). Take Montreal +1.5 goals (6*). |
|||||||
03-01-22 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Wings are coming off a ridiculous 10-7 home loss to the Maple Leafs on Saturday night but I expect nothing of the sort to play out on Tuesday as they stay home to host the surging Hurricanes. Carolina checks in having allowed three goals or less in eight straight games and has given up just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. You would have to go back four meetings to find the last time the Wings hung more than three goals on the Canes. Carolina skated to a 5-3 win in Raleigh in the first matchup between these two teams this season. That's worth noting as the Wings have posted a 14-28 o/u record when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 5+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals. Going back to that high-scoring result on Saturday here in Motown, the Wings have seen the 'under' go 8-1 when coming off a game that totalled 9+ goals this season, leading to an average total of just 4.3 goals in that spot. We have seen the Wings show the ability to tighten things up defensively when they need to here at home this season, allowing only 2.1 goals per game when playing at home after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here. Take the under (7*). |
|||||||
03-01-22 | NJIT v. Stony Brook UNDER 139 | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey Tech and Stony Brook at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these offenses are slumping right now and given the first meeting between the two squads this season totalled only 127 points, I'm not expecting anything resembling a track meet on Tuesday. New Jersey Tech has topped out at 24 made field goals in its last six games with that performance coming last time out, in a game in which it hoisted up 63 field goal attempts and still scored just 63 points. Stony Brook has made just 22, 18 and 24 field goals in its last three contests. We have seen the Sea Wolves tighten things up defensively over that stretch, however, yielding a grand total of just 63 made field goals over those three games. New Jersey Tech's last two opponents have shot the lights out, leading directly to a pair of 'over' results. The pace wasn't necessarily there in either of those contests and I don't believe it will be in Tuesday's game either. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-01-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia OVER 145 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
SEC Regular Season Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Georgia at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. Georgia enters Tuesday's clash with Tennessee having seen the 'over' cash in five straight games and I look for that streak to continue here. The Vols should have little trouble 'filling it up' against the Bulldogs, noting that Georgia has allowed 30+ made field goals in five straight games. In fact, each of the Dawgs last three opponents have shot better than 51% from the field. The Vols will be looking to 'get right' offensively after struggling a bit with their shooting over their last five contests. I have no doubt that the Georgia defense will be the cure for what ails them. We have seen Tennessee make a concerted effort to push the pace over the last couple of games, hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in consecutive wins over Missouri and Auburn. That quicker pace should open the door for the Bulldogs to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. Note that despite Georgia's recent struggles, it has shot reasonably well despite a slew of slower-paced contests. Also note that the Vols do send opponents to the free throw line 21 times per game on the road this season while Georgia has shown the ability to get there with some consistency at home, averaging 21 attempts per contest on this floor. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-28-22 | UCLA -8 v. Washington | 77-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Washington at 11 pm et on Monday. UCLA bounced back from a loss at Oregon to blast Oregon State by 39 points on Saturday. I look for the Bruins to build off of that incredible performance on Monday night in Washington. While UCLA isn't expected to have Johnny Juzang back for this game, that was certainly no obstacle on Saturday and I don't believe it will be tonight either. Washington is sagging defensively right now, having allowed 36, 30, 30, 27 and 24 made field goals, not to mention 60+ field goal attempts in nine straight games heading into Monday's contest. In stark contrast, UCLA has held each of its last seven opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts, allowing a grand total of only 96 made field goals over its last five games combined. Offensively, the Bruins are 'filling it up', knocking down 28 or more field goals in six of their last nine contests. This same matchup was no contest back on February 19th as the Bruins rolled to a 76-50 victory. Perhaps the Huskies can close the margin somewhat in this one, but not by enough to cover the very reasonable pointspread in my opinion. Take UCLA (6*). |
|||||||
02-28-22 | Bruins v. Kings +1.5 | 7-0 | Loss | -197 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 goals over Boston at 10:35 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams enter this game red hot and I'm certainly anticipated a tightly-contested affair on Monday night. With that being said, we'll grab the insurance goal with the Kings, even though we have to pay a significant tariff to do so. Here, we'll note that Boston checks in just 16-17 after giving up one goal or less in its previous game over the last two seasons with an even 3.0-3.0 scoring average in that particular spot. When coming off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, the B's have allowed 3.2 goals per game, outscored by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that situation. The Kings, meanwhile, have given up just 1.7 goals per game when coming off five or more consecutive victories over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. They're just 14-13 on home ice this season but have outscored the opposition by 0.3 goals on average. Take Los Angeles +1.5 goals (5*). |
|||||||
02-28-22 | New Mexico v. Fresno State -10 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over New Mexico at 10 pm et on Monday. Fresno State finally snapped a four-game losing streak with a 65-40 blowout victory over Air Force last time out. I look for the Bulldogs to build on that positive result with another lopsided victory on Monday against New Mexico. The Lobos snapped a three-game losing streak of their own with a narrow victory over Air Force last Thursday. That came at home. The Lobos are just 2-10 on the road this season and have had little success in slowing opposing offenses, allowing 28 made field goals per game on better than 48% shooting. That's not to mention the fact that they're sending opponents to the free throw line a whopping 23 times per contest on the road this season. On the flip side, Fresno State allows just 19-of-50 shooting here at home this season, including only six made three-pointers per game and 13 free throw attempts per contest. The Bulldogs have held each of their last four opponents to 52 or fewer field goal attempts so I don't envision New Mexico enjoying a ton of quality scoring opportunities in tonight's game. Fresno State took the first meeting between these two teams by five points back in late January. The Lobos had nine more field goal attempts than the Bulldogs in that game but I expect that script to flip in this one. Take Fresno State (10*). |
|||||||
02-28-22 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 237.5 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game - a wild 133-129 loss in Miami on Saturday. It was obviously from the jump that Miami took a win for granted in that game with the Spurs missing a number of key contributors including Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl. Here, I don't think the Spurs will be so fortunate. Go up and down the San Antonio lineup and you'll see that virtually the entire roster shot the lights out in that game on Saturday. It will face a different challenge here though, with the Grizzlies coming out of the break playing solid defense, limiting Minnesota and Chicago to a combined 82-for-186 (44%) shooting. Note that the Grizz have held the Spurs to 105 and 110 points in two previous meetings this season. On the flip side, Memphis has scored fewer than 120 points in three straight games after eclipsing that mark in six consecutive games previously. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 13-5 with the Spurs playing on the road following an ATS win this season, leading to an average total of 218.7 points. Better still, the 'under' is 22-9 with San Antonio coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 216.4 points. The Spurs are coming off three straight 'over' results, matching their longest such streak of the season. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
02-28-22 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Heat have now seen their last two games go 'over' the total and you would have to go back six games to find the last time they've held an opponent to under 100 points. Keep in mind, they've had only two stretches longer than five games without holding an opponent under the century mark on only two previous occasions this season. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for high-scoring affairs, but in Miami's most recent game, it shot better than 56% from the field while its opponent, San Antonio shot 55.6%. I don't expect that type of track meet to unfold here as the Heat will be looking to 'manage' proceedings before a back-to-back road set beginning on Wednesday night in Milwaukee. The Bulls are coming off one of their weaker offensive performances in weeks as they scored 110 points on 41.9% shooting in a loss to the Grizzlies on Saturday. This certainly isn't an ideal bounce-back spot noting they average right around 3.0 points less than their season average in terms of points per game on the road this season. Note that they've scored just 104 and 92 points in two previous meetings with Miami this season. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
02-28-22 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals OVER 6 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Washington at 7:35 pm et on Monday. These two teams haven't met since back in October of 2019 so it's easy to forget how entertaining their previous matchups were. Going all the way back to November of 2017, their last seven meetings totalled 6, 7, 6, 9, 5, 7 and 7 goals. The Leafs are of course coming off a circus-like 10-7 win in Detroit on Saturday night. While that final scoreline was somewhat shocking, the fact is, high-scoring games involving the Leafs have been the norm when they play on the road this season. They're averaging 3.9 goals per game away from home but also giving up an average of 3.3. Goaltending continues to be an issue for Toronto with both Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek struggling. We should see Campbell on Monday, noting that he has posted an .888 save percentage over his last four games. Washington hasn't been much better between the pipes, with Ilya Samsonov recording an .890 save percentage here at home, with the 'over' cashing at a 9-4 clip in his 13 starts. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 18-6 with the Caps coming off a game in which three total goals or less were scored over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.7 goals. Interestingly, the Caps check in allowing 3.6 goals per game when playing at home off a road loss over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 6.4 goals (15-game sample size). I don't expect goals to be hard to come by in this one. Take the over (7*). |
|||||||
02-28-22 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Central Connecticut State and Fairleigh Dickinson at 7 pm et on Monday. The fact that this is a matchup between two bottom-dwellers in the NEC has most expecting a rather sloppy, low-scoring affair. I'm not so easily convinced. Rather than simply 'play out the string', we saw Fairleigh Dickinson throw caution to the wind down the stretch and it all started with a wild 91-82 loss against the same opponent it will face on Monday, Central Connecticut State, back on February 5th. Including that contest, FDU scored 82, 65, 82, 44, 93, 88 and 77 points. The Knights have essentially been stuffing boxscores since late January. They should have little trouble terrorizing a Central Connecticut defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. The question here is whether CCU can do its part to help this one 'over' the total. Given that it shot 50% on 64 field goal attempts when these two teams last met earlier this month and the fact that FDU has yielded 60+ FG attempts in six of its last eight games, allowing 30+ made field goals in half of those contests, I believe it can. We're dealing with a short pointspread for a reason in this game in my opinion, and I'm confident that the Blue Devils can 'fill it up' against a vulnerable FDU defense and ultimately keep within arm's reach, helping generate a flurry of late scoring as well, even if we may not even need that support. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-28-22 | Massachusetts v. Fordham -2 | Top | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Game of the Month. My selection is on Fordham minus the points over UMass at 7 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up for Fordham as it looks to bounce back from an ugly performance at Davidson on Saturday. The Rams knocked down only 12-of-49 field goals in that contest, unable to build off consecutive home victories in their previous two games. I do expect a much stronger effort here as they host a reeling UMass squad on Monday. The Minutemen have dropped back-to-back games by 21 and 15-point margins. Opponents have absolutely been 'filling it up' against the UMass defense, pouring in 28+ made field goals in five of its last six games. On the flip side, Fordham has given up fewer than 20 made field goals in three of its last five games. Even in Saturday's blowout loss at Davidson, the Rams still gave up just 22 made field goals. They've held four of their last five opponents to sub-38% shooting from the field. That's nothing new. Fordham allows an average of just 23 made field goals, including only six from beyond the arc, and sends opponents to the free throw line only 16 times per contest here at home this season. That's all key as any success the Minutemen has had this season has generally been on the strength of its three-point (10 made per game) and free-throw shooting (20 trips to the line per contest). Take Fordham (10*). |
|||||||
02-28-22 | Cadiz CF v. Granada UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Granada and Cadiz at 3 pm et on Monday. With home side Granada having gone winless in its last seven matches and currently sitting only three points clear of relegation and four points above today's opponent Cadiz, I'm anticipating a cagey affair between these two on Monday. A draw certainly wouldn't be the worst result for either side and for that to happen, I suspect the match will be of the low-scoring variety. Note that we've seen each of the last five matches in this series total 2.5 goals or less. Cadiz has gone undefeated in its last five matches with Granada so we know that despite its struggled in La Liga play this season, it can hold its own in this matchup. With Granada having gone six matches without posting a clean sheet, and with plenty of extra preparation time for this match, I am confident that it can hold down the Cadiz offense, however, noting that the latter has managed only 12 goals in 12 'away' matches this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-28-22 | Sampdoria v. Atalanta OVER 2.75 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atalanta and Sampdoria at 2:50 pm et on Monday. |
|||||||
02-27-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227 | 124-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers blowout loss to the Warriors on Thursday night but we were somewhat fortunate to do so as Portland had a difficult time just getting shots off, let alone scoring, as it attempted just 78 field goals and shot below 40%. Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, not to mention the fact the Blazers are dealing with a number of key injuries, including one to Jusuf Nurkic, it's likely going to be a grind for them down the stretch. The Nuggets will be an unforgiving opponent on Sunday night. With that being said, Denver is playing its third game in four nights, in three different cities, and likely won't have much interest in a track meet here. The Nuggets didn't look to have the freshest legs last night as they knocked down just 38-of-82 (46.3%) of their field goal attempts against an awful Kings defense. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'over' lately, neither have been involved in what you would consider ultra fast-paced games lately. Nuggets opponents have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last five games while the Blazers have limited the opposition to 90 or less FG attempts in six straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
02-27-22 | Islanders v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Anaheim at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. We've now seen three straight games go 'over' the total on the Islanders current road trip. While we've missed with the 'under' in their last two contests, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. We'll note again that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Isles coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-7 with New York coming off a game in which it allowed 5+ goals, as is the case here following last night's 5-2 loss in Los Angeles, resulting in an average total of 4.7 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 15-6 with New York playing on the road after suffering a loss by 3+ goals in their previous game, also the case here, leading to an average total of just 4.6 goals. The Ducks are coming off a lopsided defeat of their own against the Kings, dropping a 4-1 decision on Friday night. Note that they're still allowing just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season, having posted a 12-15 o/u record here on the Pond. Save for a seven-goal explosion in Vancouver last week, the Ducks offense has been fairly quiet lately, scoring three goals or less in six of their last eight games overall. Interestingly, Anaheim has averaged just 2.0 goals per game at home in the second half of the season over the last two campaigns. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
02-27-22 | Pistons v. Hornets UNDER 229.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Hornets have absolutely abused the Pistons defense in two previous meetings this season, scoring 140+ points in both games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Since giving up 141 points in a blowout loss at home against the Hornets on February 11th, the Pistons have held their last four opponents to 103, 111, 103 and 113 points. Their offense remains unreliable, noting that they've been held under 100 points three times over their last nine games and check in averaging just 101.2 points per game on the road this season. Worse still, they average just 100.6 points per contest when coming off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Hornets went into the All-Star break losers of three games in a row but did respond with a 125-93 victory over the Raptors in their first game back on Friday. That marked the first time since January 21st they held an opponent to under 100 points and gives them something to build on heading into Sunday's game. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Hornets playing at home off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 215.2 points. The 'over' is 2-0-1 in the Pistons last three games overall but the pace really hasn't been there, noting that two of Detroit's last three opponents got off just 77 field goal attempts while Detroit attempted just 86 and 87 field goals in its last two contests. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series this season. Note that the 'under' is 21-12 with Detroit playing with double-revenge this season, resulting in an average total of just 212.1 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-27-22 | Montana State v. Montana UNDER 135.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Montana State and Montana at 5 pm et on Saturday. Montana enters this game on the heels of seven consecutive 'over' results. With that in mind, we're not seeing a major adjustment to the total compared to the first meeting between these two in-state rivals this season, despite that contest reaching just 125 total points (that game saw a closing total of 137.5). Montana has been a different team at home compared to on the road, absolutely locking down the opposition, allowing just 20 made field goals per game including only five from beyond the arc. While the Grizzlies have scored 70+ points in three consecutive games entering Sunday's contest, that's been the exception rather than the rule as they eclipsed that mark in only seven of their previous 14 conference games this season. Montana State currently leads the Big Sky Conference with a 13-3 record and has certainly been 'filling it up' lately but that's had a lot to do with the level of competition it has faced. It shot better than 50% from the field but still scored 'only' 66 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. In that game, the Bobcats only managed to get off 45 field goal attempts (they also got to the free throw line 19 times, two shy of their season average). Off consecutive losses and sinking in the Big Sky standings, I do expect Montana to put up a serious fight in this game, as the line would indicate and that should lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair, much like we saw in the first meeting. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-27-22 | Blues -159 v. Blackhawks | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Chicago at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off victories on Friday night but I believe the Blues are better-positioned to win again on Sunday as they look to win three out of four against the Blackhawks this season, and seven of the last eight in this series. The Blackhawks are in a tough spot here, noting that they're a woeful 2-11 when playing at home off a home win in which they scored 4+ goals over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that situation. They're just 3-17 when coming off a win by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that spot. Keep in mind, Chicago is just 9-17 on home ice this season where it averages only 2.5 goals per contest. While St. Louis has only managed to go an even 12-12 on the road, it has averaged 3.3 goals per game and has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.3 goals away from home. When healthy, which it is for the most part right now, I would match up St. Louis with most of the better teams in the league talent-wise. Take St. Louis (6*). |
|||||||
02-27-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Hawaii UNDER 130.5 | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Bakersfield and Hawaii at midnight et on Saturday. We saw CSUB's seven-game 'over' streak come to an end last time out as it was involved in a slugfest that totalled only 121 points against Cal-Poly. I expect more of the same as it heads to Hawaii on Saturday. Both of these teams have done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities. CSUB checks in allowing just 22 made field goals per game on the road this season. While opponents have gotten to the free throw line with consistency against them, Hawaii doesn't figure to be a team to take full advantage, noting that it averages only 17 trips to the charity stripe per game and got there only 12 times in the first meeting between these two this season (that game totalled only 122 points). Hawaii has really stepped it up defensively of late, limiting three of its last four opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals. It does send opponents to the free throw line 20 times per game here at home but again, CSUB doesn't figure to take advantage, noting that it gets to the line just 15 times per contest and shoots sub-70% from the stripe on the road this season. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
02-26-22 | Islanders v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in the Islanders most recent game but did cash the Sharks +1.5 goals in that 4-3 San Jose shootout victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'under' again as the Isles continue their road trip in Los Angeles on Saturday, however. Note that the 'under' is 14-3 with the Isles playing on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of only 3.8 goals. The 'under' is also 9-1 with New York having scored 3+ goals in consecutive games this season, leading to an average total of just 4.2 goals. As for the Kings, they've seen the 'under' cash at a 13-4 clip when playing at home off a win by 3+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also an identical 13-4 with the Kings coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, leading to just 4.6 total goals on average in that spot. The first meeting between these two teams totalled only five goals as the Kings defeated the Isles by a 3-2 score on January 27th. The 'under' is 8-6 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
02-26-22 | Bruins v. Sharks +1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Sharks on the puck-line in their most recent game as they finally snapped their losing streak with a 4-3 shootout win over the Islanders. In fact, we've won with San Jose +1.5 goals in each of the last two games and have been rewarded with consecutive winners. We'll go back to the well here. Note that Boston is just 6-10 after giving up two goals or less in three straight games over the last two seasons. They're also just 35-33, outscoring opponents by only 0.3 goals on average after a win over the same time frame. Meanwhile, the Sharks are 11-4 when playing at home after giving up 3+ goals in three straight games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. You would have to go back 12 meetings between these two teams here in San Jose - all the way to 1999 - to find the last time Boston won a game by two or more goals. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (6*). |
|||||||
02-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 236 | 126-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a track meet between the Nets and Bucks on Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Nets are coming off yet another loss, this time in blowout fashion at home against the Celtics on Thursday. Boston barely broke a sweat and scored 129 points in that contest so I shudder at the thought of what the Bucks, who haven't played since the All-Star break, will be able to do on Saturday night. Incredible, seven of the Nets last nine opponents have shot 50% or better from the field. The good news is, they're back on the road, where they of course have the much-needed services of Kyrie Irving to at least attempt to keep pace. Note that Brooklyn is averaging 113.2 points per game on the road this season, nearly three points north of its season scoring average. While the Bucks should be able to score at will in this game, I question whether they'll be able to stop Brooklyn. Note that Milwaukee's opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, scoring 131, 122, 119 and 123 points over its last four games. In fact, the Bucks have given up 108+ points in seven straight games. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met back in January, the Nets were at home and didn't have Kyrie Irving. They still scored 109 points despite shooting a woeful 6-of-27 from beyond the arc. They average double that - 12 made threes per game - on the road this season. For their part, the Bucks have allowed 14 made three-pointers per contest here at home this season. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-26-22 | Spurs v. Heat UNDER 226 | 129-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in San Antonio's wild 157-153 double-overtime win in Washington last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Spurs continue their road trip in Miami on Saturday. The Heat played last night as well, securing a 115-100 win over the Knicks in New York. This is a game where Miami will be looking to 'manage' proceedings in my opinion as they have another game at home against Chicago on Monday before a back-to-back on the road in Milwaukee and Brooklyn on Wednesday and Thursday. In other words, I don't think the Heat have any interest in a track meet here. Note that Miami has done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding three of their last six opponents to fewer than 80 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Spurs coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, resulting in an average total of 212.2 points. The Heat took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 112-95 score on February 3rd and that's notable as the 'under' is 16-6 with the Spurs on the road seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 216.1 points. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
02-26-22 | South Dakota State v. UMKC +7.5 | Top | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Summit League Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over South Dakota State at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the home underdog in this matchup between two red hot Summit League teams. South Dakota State has of course been the class of the conference all season, going undefeated to this point at 17-0. That includes a 32-point rout of Kansas City back on December 20th. Kansas City enters this game on a serious roll, however, having won eight consecutive games ATS. The Roos have done a tremendous job of locking down the opposition here at home, allowing just 21 made field goals per game on only 51 attempts. That includes just 5-of-19 shooting from beyond the arc. South Dakota State obviously has the offense to test those numbers but also finds itself in a tough spot, playing on just one day of rest following a wild 106-102 road win at Oral Roberts on Thursday. While the Jackrabbits are certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard, I like the fact that the Roos come in on a heater as well, having shot better than 51% from the field in five of their last eight games and averaging just shy of 80 points per game on 48% shooting at home this season. Kansas City's recent success hasn't come out of nowhere as it is actually 29-15 ATS in its last 44 games against Summit League opposition. Take Kansas City (10*). |
|||||||
02-26-22 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts OVER 154.5 | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 155 points and as a result we're looking at a higher posted total for this rematch (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 145.5). I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. There was really nothing special about that first matchup as far as the performance of the two offenses goes. In fact, South Dakota actually knocked down only four three-pointers in the game - three less than its season average. The two teams also made just 20 free throws combined, less than their combined per game season average of 26. South Dakota enters this game off three consecutive 'under' results. I simply don't see this game being played at the same relatively slow pace that we saw in any of those three games. Note that Oral Roberts comes in having knocked down a whopping 69 field goals over its last two games. But it is also affording the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities, allowing 60+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games with the 'over' cashing at a 4-2 clip over that stretch. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-26-22 | Lightning v. Predators +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The Preds have righted the ship by posting consecutive wins after losing four in a row. They'll be in tough trying to make it three wins in a row against a Lightning squad that has reeled off three consecutive wins itself, but I'm comfortable backing Nashville with an insurance goal as it hosts this 'Stadium Series' game on Saturday. Note that Tampa is just 21-24 and an even 3.1-3.1 in terms of scoring average when coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Bolts also check in an even 29-29 after scoring 3+ goals in three consecutive games over the same stretch, only managing to outscore opponents by 0.3 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Preds are 15-7 after losing four or five of their last six contests over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 goals. Take Nashville +1.5 goals (6*). |
|||||||
02-26-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa OVER 137.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Loyola-Chicago and Northern Iowa at 6 pm et on Saturday. The opposition has been absolutely filling it up against Northern Iowa lately, knocking down 35. 26, 29 and 32 field goals in the Panthers last four games, leading to a 3-1 o/u record over that stretch. There's little reason to think Loyola-Chicago can't add to the Panthers defensive woes here, as it comes in off an 82-point explosion against Evansville and has scored 70+ points in four of its last five contests. The question here is whether Northern Iowa can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonably-priced total. I believe the Panthers can as they come into this one after scoring 72, 95 and 88 points over the course of a three-game winning streak. They scored only 58 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season (that game still got into the 140's) but shot just 40% from the field and got to the free throw line only six times in that game. In fact, we saw just six made free throws in that contest (the two teams combine to average 26 made free throws per game this season). With this total sitting in the 130's, I believe we have plenty of wiggle room to work with. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-26-22 | San Francisco -13 v. San Diego | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over San Diego at 5 pm et on Saturday. After hanging tough through the early stages of conference play, San Diego has 'let go of the rope' so to speak, dropping five of its last six games SU (0-5-1 ATS). Opponents have absolutely abused the Toreros defense of late, knocking down 30+ field goals in four of those last six games. Things certainly won't get any easier against a San Francisco squad that will be looking to get back on track after a tough loss against mighty Gonzaga two nights ago. While the Dons have been a little uneven of late, that's had more to do with a couple of tough matchups with the aforementioned Zags and St. Mary's than anything else. They've still managed to win by 16+ points in three of their last five contests. I fully expect to see San Francisco clamp down on the San Diego offense here, noting that it allows just 23 made field goals including only five per game from three-point range on the road this season. While the Toreros could elect to play a little faster than usual, that will only afford to the Dons more scoring opportunities, noting that they've put up 100+ points twice in their last five games. When these two teams last met in January, San Francisco led by 14 points at halftime before easing off the gas in the second half. I don't expect that same sort of story to unfold here as they look to 'get right' off Thursday's lopsided defeat. Take San Francisco (10*). |
|||||||
02-26-22 | Northern Illinois +17 v. Buffalo | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
MAC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Buffalo at 2 pm et on Saturday. I love that we're catching a boatload of points in this quick rematch between these two MAC squads on Saturday afternoon in Buffalo. We won with the 'under' in this same matchup on Thursday as Northern Illinois at least held its own in a game that was reasonably competitive throughout (Buffalo eventually won by 11 points). The Huskies enter Saturday's game riding a five-game ATS winning streak but are still getting little respect from the oddsmakers. Buffalo, meanwhile, with its high-octane offense has become an overvalued commodity, dropping the cash in three consecutive games. While NIU is a poor 6-12 SU away from home this season, it has managed to post a solid 11-7 ATS mark. The Huskies have actually won outright as big underdogs in-conference at Kent State, Ball State and Akron with the latter two victories coming in the last two weeks. While the Huskies average only 22 made field goals per game including just six from beyond the arc on the road this season, they'll likely be afforded many more scoring opportunities than they're accustomed to here with Buffalo allowing opponents to get off 65 field goal attempts including 23 per game from three-point range here at home this season. Take Northern Illinois (10*). |
|||||||
02-26-22 | Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 v. Bayer Leverkusen | 0-3 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 goals over Bayer Leverkusen at 9:30 am et on Saturday. The Bielefeld bandwagon, while not all that full to begin with, was effectively cleared following a 2-0 away loss against Hoffenheim back on February 13th. We did see the German side rebound with a 1-0 blanking of Union Berlin last time out, however, and I believe it can give Leverkusen a good run on Saturday as well. Note that Leverkusen has now gone an incredible 13 matches without recording a clean sheet. In other words, there will be plenty of opportunity for Bielefeld to get on the board in this one. It has actually been first to score in four of its last five matches overall, not to mention the fact that it has found the back of the net in six of its last eight matches against Leverkusen. The 'away' side has actually taken all three points in five straight matches between these two including a 2-1 result in favor of Bielefeld on this field last March. While Leverkusen is comfortably inside the top-six in the Bundesliga table, Bielefeld is still fighting to avoid relegation, sitting just three points clear of 16th-place Augsburg. I expect Bielefeld to go all out to potentially salvage a point, if not more from this match. Take Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 goals (8*). |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Arizona at 9:35 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results in their most recent game. In the case of the Coyotes, they're fresh off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday, however. Note that the Knights skated to a 7-1 rout of the Coyotes here in Glendale in their lone previous meeting this season. Vegas checks in averaging 3.3 goals per game on the road this season. While the Coyotes aren't lighting the lamp with a lot of consistency at home this season they have managed to score three goals or more in four of their last five games overall. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 with Arizona playing at home off consecutive 'under' results this season with that situation producing an average total of 8.0 goals. The 'over' is also 12-3 with the Coyotes seeking revenge for a loss by 3+ goals against an opponent over the last two seasons, with an average total of 6.9 goals scored in that spot. The Knights, meanwhile, have posted a 14-5 o/u mark when coming off an 'under' result this season, with that situation producing an average total of 6.8 goals. While the Knights gave up just a single goal in their most recent game - a 4-1 win in San Jose on Sunday (we won with the 'under' in that game), they've still allowed 13 goals over their last four contests. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' recently I believe the extended All-Star break can serve as a 'catalyst for change' heading into Friday's showdown in Salt Lake City. While it's true the 'under' is 5-2 in Dallas' last seven games overall, it has also scored 103+ points in 10 of its last 11 games, only failing to reach the century mark in a tough back half of a two-game set against the Clippers (we noted that was a poor spot for Dallas and successfully backed Los Angeles in a 99-97 victory). The 'under' is 6-1 in Utah's last seven games. It has scored over 100 points in nine straight games, boosted by the recent returns of Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. The Jazz have also given up 100+ points in nine of their last 11 games, only holding an undermanned Warriors squad and the lowly Magic under that scoring mark over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with Utah playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 217.4 points. Mavs road games have totalled an average of 221.7 points over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans entered the break on the heels of consecutive losses against the Grizzlies and Mavericks. Things won't get any easier as they head to Phoenix to face the Suns on Friday. With that being said, I'll gladly grab the generous helping of points with New Orleans in this spot. Note that Phoenix is fresh off a blowout win in Oklahoma City last night. As I expected, we saw the Suns really force the issue offensively in that one, looking to erase any doubt of how they will perform in the absence of Chris Paul. Here, I think things might get a little tougher playing the second of back-to-backs against a Pelicans squad that can hold its own offensively, boosted by the pre-trade deadline acquisition of C.J. McCollum. Note that Phoenix checks in 3-12 ATS when playing at home after winning four or five of its last six games ATS this season, outscoring opponents by just 5.5 points on average in that spot (compared to 9.3 points overall at home this season). Additionally, when coming off an ATS cover as a double-digit favorite over the last two seasons, the Suns have only managed to outscore their next opponent by an average margin of 1.2 points. The Pelicans check in having been outscored by just 0.4 points on average when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here (20-game sample size). Also note that the Pelicans have outscored opponents by 0.3 points on average when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, also the case here (41-game sample size). Take New Orleans (10*). |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Arkansas State at 8 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 115 points and while we're dealing with a small adjustment to the posted total in this one (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 134.5) I don't believe it will prove to be enough. Arkansas State enters this game off a five-point loss at home against Coastal Carolina as it performed poorly defensively, allowing the Chanticleers to eclipse the 70-point mark and shoot 50% from the field. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves allow just 62.7 points per game on an average of only 23 made field goals including just five from beyond the arc here at home this season. Appalachian State is fresh off consecutive wins and scored 78 points in a double-digit victory over Arkansas-Little Rock last time out. The Mountaineers knocked down 32 field goals in that contest - the first time they hit more than 27 field goals in a game since posting 33 back in mid-January against Coastal Carolina. The Mountaineers average only 65.1 ppg on the road this season where they're good for an average of 24 made field goals including seven from three-point range, not to mention only 14 trips per contest to the free throw line. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Texas-Arlington v. South Alabama UNDER 133 | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Arlington and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Friday. While the first meeting between these two teams was played at a break-neck pace and ultimately got into the 170's, I don't expect anything of the sort in Friday's rematch. South Alabama is playing a completely different style of basketball now than it was back in that late-December meeting. The Jaguars have been slowing things down to a crawl and should be even more motivated to do so as they look to snap a two-game skid on Friday. They certainly don't want to get out and run with UTA, noting that it has had considerable success doing so lately, scoring 80+ points in recent wins over Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas-Little Rock. When opponents have elected to slow Arlington down, they've found success, noting that UTA has scored just 49 and 53 points in consecutive losses entering Friday's contest. South Alabama has allowed more than 21 made field goals just once in its last six games and gives up less than 58 points per game at home this season. The Jaguars figure to be able to dictate the tempo as considerable home favorites in this one. Take the under (7*). |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 223 | 157-153 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Despite a pre-trade deadline fire sale of sorts, the Spurs went into the All-Star break having scored 109+ points in four straight games. The problem is, they also allowed 104 points or more in 14 consecutive games prior to the break. Meanwhile, the Wizards come out of the break after scoring 100+ points in six straight games. Like the Spurs, they haven't done a great job of defending their own basket, giving up 113+ points in four of their last six contests, only avoiding that fate against the likes of the Pistons and Nets (without all of their stars). Note that the Spurs check in averaging 112.0 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons. Washington on the other hand has averaged 118.8 points per contest when coming off a double-digit win over the same time frame (20-game sample size). I expect to see both teams race up and down the floor with considerable success on Friday. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Rennes v. Montpellier UNDER 2.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Montpellier and Stade Rennes at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm anticipating a cagey start between these two French sides on Friday with a lot on the line ahead of this clash at Stade de la Mosson. Stade Rennes currently holds down one of the coveted conference league qualifying top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table but by the slimmest of margins. It sits just two points clear of AS Monaco. Note that while today's opponent Montpellier sits in ninth position, that leaves it only three points behind Les Rennais, certainly ratcheting up the importance of this clash. Here, we'll note that Stade Rennes has allowed a grand total of just three first half goals in 12 'away' matches in Ligue 1 play this season. For its part, Montpellier has given up seven first half strikes in 13 Ligue 1 'home' contests. All signs would seemingly point to an early Stade Rennes goal in this contest given its penchant for achieving such not only recently, but in this particular series. However, giving me pause to that notion is the fact that Montpellier hasn't conceded a first half goal in any of its last four matches overall. Two early goals allowed put Montpellier virtually out of contention for the three points the last time these two squads met last November (that one ended 2-0 in favor of Les Rennais). The fact that the rematch will play out on its home turf should assist in keeping Montpellier level in this particular contest for considerably longer. Take the first half under (5*). |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Norwich City v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Southampton and Norwich City at 3 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in Southampton's most recent match as it could only find two goals in a blanking of Everton. Here, I think we see things open up a little more with Norwich City looking to pull off the stunner against a rolling Southampton side on Friday. We can be all but assured that Southampton will find the back of the goal in this contest, noting that it has done so in 11 straight matches across all competitions. However, it's also worth mentioning that both sides have scored in eight of Southampton's last nine matches overall. While Norwich City finds itself sitting at the bottom of the EPL table, five points back of safety from relegation, it has shown some promise in recent weeks and months. Despite its scoring problems overall this season it has actually managed to find the back of the net first in five of its last six contests. Unfortunately in this particular matchup, it has failed to strike first in five consecutive meetings, with four of those five matches going 'over' 2.5 total goals. There's no reason to raise our level of concern too high should this one get off to a slow start, noting that Norwich has incredibly conceded 27 of its 53 goals this season in the final 15 minutes (plus added time) of its matches. Meanwhile, Southampton has allowed 22 of its 37 goals in the second half. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Elche v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Levante and Elche at 3 pm et on Friday. We've been involved in a few recent matches involving Levante and Elche, most recently suffering a tough loss fading Levante in a match were it struck very late to earn a 1-1 draw against Celta Vigo. Meanwhile, we won with the 'over' in Elche's most recent contest - a 2-1 win over Raya Vallecano one week ago. Here, I'm not anticipating much in terms of offensive fireworks. We've seen five of the last six meetings in this series total less than 2.5 goals and I'm anticipating more of the same. This has the makings of a rather uneventful affair for Elche, which currently sits in no man's land in 14th spot in the La Liga table, nine points clear from relegation but 10 points back of a coveted top-six place. As for Levante, despite its recent modest success, it is still in last place, nine points behind the safety of the 17th spot. It has managed to score just 13 goals in 12 home matches this season while Elche has the very same number of goals in one additional contest away from home. Having not recorded a clean sheet in any of its last four matches, Elche will be looking to tighten things up here and might just have the perfect opponent to do so against. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Stuttgart v. Hoffenheim UNDER 3 | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hoffenheim and Stuttgart at 2:30 pm et on Friday. I expect both sides to take a rather cautious approach in this one. Hoffenheim holds down one of the coveted top-six spots in the table but is just two points clear of seventh-placed Koln. It certainly wants to take something, if not all three points, away from this very winnable clash on Friday. Noting, however, that it has conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches and hasn't posted a clean sheet in any of its last four meetings with Stuttgart, it will need to be careful not to get too complacent here. On a positive note, Stuttgart has managed only 27 goals in 23 Bundesliga matches this season. For its part it has gone winless in the last four meetings in this series and has been first to conceded in five of its last six contests overall. Having not recorded a clean sheet in any of those most recent six matches, we can be certain where it's concentration will lie in this particular contest. While we won with the 'over' in Hoffenheim's most recent match - a come-from-behind 2-1 win over Wolfsburg last weekend, I believe this particular total will prove too high. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
02-25-22 | Udinese v. AC Milan OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between AC Milan and Udinese at 12:45 pm et on Friday. AC Milan is coming off a surprising 2-2 draw against Salernitana last weekend but should make amends here in what I believe will be a relatively high-scoring contest against Udinese. Udinese simply can't afford to 'park the bus' and hope for the best in an effort to take something away from this match. It sits only three points clear of the bottom-three relegation spots in the Serie A table. On a promising note, it has managed to find the back of the net in six consecutive matchups with AC Milan. In fact, Udinese has been first to score in four of the last five matches between these two sides. That said, the Serie A leading outfit, AC Milan, will be looking to extend its five-match undefeated streak and should have little difficulty doing so against a Udinese squad that has yielded 41 goals in 24 Serie A matches this season. Thanks to picking up only a point in what was an expected victory last time out, Milan still sits atop the Serie A table but only two points clear of both Inter Milan and Napoli, with Inter taking the pitch later today. While the last two meetings between Milan and Udinese have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals, we've seen both teams find at least a goal in four straight matchups. With the underdog side desperate to earn at least a point and Milan determined to pick up all three, I believe we're well-positioned for goals on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-24-22 | Islanders v. Sharks +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over New York at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. We won backing the Sharks on the puck-line two nights ago in Anaheim as they ultimately fell in a shootout against the Ducks. San Jose is now riding a seven-game losing streak but we'll once again get behind it with an insurance goal as it returns home to host New York on Thursday. Here, we'll again note that the Sharks are 10-4 when playing at home after allowing 3+ goals in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. They're also 11-6 after giving up 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that situation. The last seven times the Sharks have played at home off six or more consecutive losses we've seen them average an impressive 4.5 goals per game while outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average. Meanwhile, the Islanders are a woeful 5-14 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, averaging just 2.1 goals while getting outscored by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. When playing on the road off a road win by 3+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, the Isles have averaged only 1.6 goals and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Keep in mind, New York is just 9-13 on the road this season where it has been outscored by 0.5 goals per game. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (6*). |
|||||||
02-24-22 | Islanders v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent games but I expect a different story to unfold when they match up in San Jose on Thursday. The Isles skated to a 5-2 win over the expansion Kraken two nights ago. Keep in mind, the 'under' is 10-2 with New York coming off a game in which it scored 4+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of only 4.5 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Isles playing on the road off a road win by 3+ goals over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 3.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks have posted a 4-13 o/u record after giving up 3+ goals in consecutive games this season, which is the case here, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals in that spot. Keep in mind the first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only three goals. The 'under' has cashed in 11 of the last 16 matchups in this series. Take the under (7*). |
|||||||
02-24-22 | Flames v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Canucks enter this game off three consecutive 'over' results but I expect that streak to end here, noting that the most recent meeting between these two teams totalled just one goal back in late January (we won with the Flames in that game). Calgary has allowed two goals or less in eight straight games with the 'under' cashing in its last two contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Flames have played on the road off six or more consecutive wins, as is the case here. The 'under' is 11-3 with the Canucks playing at home off a win by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.2 goals scored in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with Vancouver seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, leading to only 4.4 total goals on average in that situation. Keep in mind, while the Canucks have scored a whopping 14 goals over the course of their three-game winning streak, they average only 2.6 goals per game (and an average total of 5.2 goals) here at home this season while the Flames give up just 2.6 goals per contest on the road. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
02-24-22 | Bruins v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 goals over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll take a shot with the Kraken on the puck-line on Thursday as they look to get right on the heels of five consecutive losses. Boston will welcome Brad Marchand back from suspension for this game. The B's are coming off a 5-1 rout of the Avalanche in a matinee affair on Monday but now head out on the road where they're a modest 13-10, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 0.4 goals on the season. Remember, these two teams just met in Boston back on February 1st in a game that could have gone either way with the B's skating to a 3-2 victory. Here, we'll note that Boston is just 22-24 after winning two of its last three games over the last two seasons and 15-17 when coming off a game in which it allowed one goal or less over the same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 0.1 goals in that particular spot. In 26 previous occasions when coming off a victory this season, the B's have allowed 3.3 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. This is a situation where the Kraken have got the juices flowing a bit this season, noting that they've averaged 3.3 goals per game and have been outscored by only 0.3 goals on average (compared to being outscored by 1.0 goal on average overall this season) when coming off a home loss by 3+ goals, as is the case here. Take Seattle +1.5 goals (5*). |
|||||||
02-24-22 | Stars v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Nashville at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Preds are coming off a wild, high-scoring 6-4 win in Florida two nights ago but I expect nothing of the sort as they host the Starts, who are fresh off a 3-2 overtime win over the Jets last night. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Preds playing at home after scoring 6+ goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 3.6 goals. In fact, the 'under' is 11-2 with Nashville returning home off a road win over the last three seasons, with that spot producing just 4.5 total goals on average. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-6 with the Stars coming off four or five wins in their last six games this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. Finally, I'll note that each of the last four meetings between these two teams in Nashville have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
02-24-22 | Buffalo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Northern Illnois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Buffalo has been on a blistering scoring pace lately, scoring 80+ points in six consecutive games. I do think Northern Illinois has a shot at knocking the Bulls off balance a little bit here, noting that the Huskies have limited opponents to just 53 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. None of NIU's last four opponents have gotten off more than 54 field goal attempts but the problem is it has allowed its last two foes to shoot 52% and 59% from the field. The good news is, the last time the Huskies allowed consecutive opponents to shoot better than 50% they followed it up with a 64-58 win over Ball State in which they held the Cardinals to 35% shooting. Buffalo allowed 84 points against Miami-Ohio last time out, barely escaping with a two-point win. Note that the Bulls have given up just 64, 74, and 69 points in their last three conference games after giving up 80+ points in their previous game. NIU certainly isn't an imposing offensive threat here at home where it averages 25 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc, while getting to the free throw line 19 times and knocking down an average of 13 of those freebies. Take the under (8*). |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Sean Murphy ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-07-22 | Northern Kentucky -1.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 57-43 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
03-07-22 | Lakers v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
03-07-22 | Blazers v. Wolves UNDER 235 | Top | 81-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
03-07-22 | Avalanche -190 v. Islanders | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
03-07-22 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 230.5 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
03-07-22 | Levante v. Ath Bilbao UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
03-06-22 | Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 130-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
03-06-22 | Senators v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
03-06-22 | Stars v. Wild -140 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -140 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
03-06-22 | Tulane +9.5 v. SMU | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
03-06-22 | South Florida +8.5 v. Temple | Top | 47-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
03-06-22 | Mallorca v. Celta de Vigo -129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
03-05-22 | Flames v. Avalanche -145 | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
03-05-22 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 227 | 116-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
03-05-22 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 221 | 82-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
03-05-22 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs -205 | 6-4 | Loss | -205 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
03-05-22 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6 | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
03-05-22 | Stanford v. Arizona State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
03-05-22 | Dartmouth v. Harvard OVER 129.5 | Top | 76-54 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
03-05-22 | Blues v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
03-05-22 | Alabama v. LSU UNDER 152.5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
03-05-22 | SpVgg Greuther Furth v. VfL Bochum -124 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
03-04-22 | Knicks v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
03-04-22 | Jazz v. Pelicans UNDER 228.5 | 90-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
03-04-22 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 220 | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
03-04-22 | Red Wings v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
03-04-22 | Devils v. Rangers -152 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
03-04-22 | Penguins v. Hurricanes UNDER 6.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
03-04-22 | Wild -200 v. Sabres | 4-5 | Loss | -200 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
03-04-22 | Bowling Green v. Toledo OVER 165 | Top | 56-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
03-04-22 | Sevilla v. Alavés UNDER 2 | 0-0 | Win | 105 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
03-03-22 | Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 116.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
03-03-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 219 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
03-03-22 | Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 147.5 | 69-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
03-03-22 | Memphis v. South Florida UNDER 131.5 | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
03-03-22 | Kings v. Spurs OVER 240 | 115-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
03-03-22 | Pistons v. Raptors UNDER 218.5 | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
03-03-22 | Canucks v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
03-03-22 | Hurricanes v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
03-02-22 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
03-02-22 | LSU v. Arkansas UNDER 142 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
03-02-22 | Kings v. Stars -139 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
03-02-22 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 234.5 | 95-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
03-02-22 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | 108-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
03-02-22 | Pacers v. Magic OVER 232.5 | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
03-02-22 | Duquesne v. George Washington -7.5 | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
03-02-22 | Real Sociedad v. Mallorca UNDER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC OVER 149 | 91-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
03-01-22 | Bruins v. Ducks +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
03-01-22 | Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
03-01-22 | Cincinnati v. Houston UNDER 136.5 | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
03-01-22 | Clippers v. Rockets +7 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
03-01-22 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Jets | 4-8 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
03-01-22 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
03-01-22 | NJIT v. Stony Brook UNDER 139 | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
03-01-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia OVER 145 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
02-28-22 | UCLA -8 v. Washington | 77-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
02-28-22 | Bruins v. Kings +1.5 | 7-0 | Loss | -197 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
02-28-22 | New Mexico v. Fresno State -10 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
02-28-22 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 237.5 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
02-28-22 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
02-28-22 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals OVER 6 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
02-28-22 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
02-28-22 | Massachusetts v. Fordham -2 | Top | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
02-28-22 | Cadiz CF v. Granada UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
02-28-22 | Sampdoria v. Atalanta OVER 2.75 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
02-27-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227 | 124-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
02-27-22 | Islanders v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
02-27-22 | Pistons v. Hornets UNDER 229.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
02-27-22 | Montana State v. Montana UNDER 135.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
02-27-22 | Blues -159 v. Blackhawks | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
02-27-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Hawaii UNDER 130.5 | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
02-26-22 | Islanders v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
02-26-22 | Bruins v. Sharks +1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
02-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 236 | 126-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
02-26-22 | Spurs v. Heat UNDER 226 | 129-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
02-26-22 | South Dakota State v. UMKC +7.5 | Top | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
02-26-22 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts OVER 154.5 | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
02-26-22 | Lightning v. Predators +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
02-26-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa OVER 137.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
02-26-22 | San Francisco -13 v. San Diego | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
02-26-22 | Northern Illinois +17 v. Buffalo | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
02-26-22 | Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 v. Bayer Leverkusen | 0-3 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
02-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
02-25-22 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
02-25-22 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
02-25-22 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
02-25-22 | Texas-Arlington v. South Alabama UNDER 133 | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
02-25-22 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 223 | 157-153 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
02-25-22 | Rennes v. Montpellier UNDER 2.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
02-25-22 | Norwich City v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
02-25-22 | Elche v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
02-25-22 | Stuttgart v. Hoffenheim UNDER 3 | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
02-25-22 | Udinese v. AC Milan OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
02-24-22 | Islanders v. Sharks +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
02-24-22 | Islanders v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
02-24-22 | Flames v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
02-24-22 | Bruins v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
02-24-22 | Stars v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
02-24-22 | Buffalo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |