Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-20-21 | 76ers +6 v. Blazers | 111-118 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The 76ers finally snapped their five-game losing streak with a blowout win in Denver two nights ago. I look for them to build off that performance here. Keep in mind, it's not as if the Sixers were getting completely outclassed during their slide. Four of their five losses came by single-digit margins while the other was an obvious outlier in Utah - a game in which they allowed the Jazz to shoot 51.7% from the field while knocking down just 36.7% of their own shots. Portland is coming off consecutive wins on its current homestand but not surprisingly both were close, by five-point margins. That's been the Blazers calling card here at home in recent years. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia checks in 18-5 ATS when coming off five or six ATS losses in their last seven games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.6 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 2-11 ATS when playing at least a third consecutive home game, outscored by 3.1 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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11-20-21 | Oklahoma State -10 v. Texas Tech | Top | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Texas Tech at 8 pm et on Saturday. Oklahoma State hasn't received the same attention as big brother Oklahoma this season but perhaps it should. The Cowboys have lost just one game all season and they covered the number in that narrow three-point loss on the road against Iowa State. Since that loss, Oklahoma State has gone a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, outscoring opponents by a combined 142-23 margin along the way. Texas Tech is down to third-string quarterback Donovan Smith. He performed well in last week's big upset win over Iowa State but now that the Cowboys have some game film on him, look for them to keep the Red Raiders offense under wraps. That Cowboys defense has been among the best in the entire nation this season, holding opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush to just 2.6 ypr and passing games that average 7.6 yards per pass attempt to only 6.3 yppa. Here, the Cowboys offense should go off, noting the Red Raiders have allowed their last three opponents to complete 84-of-107 passes for over 1,000 yards through the air. They've kept opposing ground games in check for the most part lately but that's only because the opposition hasn't elected to pound away on them. Note that TCU racked up just shy of 400 rushing yards against the Red Raiders earlier this season. Here, we'll note that Texas Tech is just 10-22 ATS the last 32 times it has come off an upset win in-conference. Worse still, Texas Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win, outscored by 15.4 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma State (10*). |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Oregon at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Oregon has CFP aspirations thanks to a 9-1 record and a marquee road win over Ohio State but I expect its playoff hopes to be dashed against the Utes on Saturday night. Utah has gone undefeated at home this season and I'm confident that flawless home record will remain unblemished when it's all said and done on Saturday. The Ducks caught lightning in a bottle in that early season win over the Buckeyes. Line those two teams up again now and I'm confident we would see Ohio State prevail in convincing fashion. Utah has faced a tougher Pac-12 slate in my opinion with its lone conference loss coming on the road against Oregon State. Since that defeat it has gone a perfect 3-0, scoring a whopping 134 points in the process. The Utes aren't likely to get bullied at the line of scrimmage the way Oregon's recent opponent have. Keep in mind, the Ducks are taking a step up in class after facing Colorado, Washington and Washington State over their last three games. I think we'll see the Utes force the Ducks to throw the football more than they would like in this contest, noting that Oregon has completed 17 or fewer passes in six of its 10 games this season while Utah has limited opponents that average 7.3 yards per pass attempt to just 6.4 yppa this season. Take Utah (9*). |
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11-20-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Liberty OVER 53 | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Louisiana-Lafayette and Liberty at 4 pm et on Saturday. I believe this game could turn out to be one of the most entertaining on Saturday's entire college football board as the Ragin' Cajuns travel to face the Liberty Flames. Louisiana-Lafayette has actually been one of the best 'under' bets in the nation this season but as a result, we've seen the books over-adjust and now we're starting to see value shifting the other way, noting that last week's game sailed 'over' the total by eight points. While the Ragin' Cajuns do like to run the football, I see this as a smash spot for them through the air as Liberty simply hasn't faced many strong passing attacks this season. In the Flames most recent game they couldn't do anything to stop Ole Miss through the air as the Rebels completed 20-of-27 passes for 324 yards in an ultra-efficient, yet not overly high-scoring 27-14 victory. Of course, if the Ragin' Cajuns choose to pound away on the ground they should have success as well, noting that Liberty has been torched (no pun intended) for nearly 800 rushing yards over its last four games alone. On the flip side, the Flames are certainly a better offensive team than they showed against Ole Miss two weeks ago. This is a team that put up a whopping 202 points over its previous five contests before the loss to the Rebels. While Louisiana-Lafayette's defense looks good statistically, it has also faced a littany of weak offensive squads in recent weeks. When these two teams last met two years ago it was no contest as Louisana-Lafayette rolled to a 35-14 win. The Ragin' Cajuns were two-touchdown favorites in that game. The talent gap has certainly narrowed since then, and I fully expect to see Liberty get in on the act here as well. Take the over (9*). |
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11-20-21 | Georgia Tech +18 v. Notre Dame | 0-55 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. No one is expecting Georgia Tech to put up much of a fight in this game as it checks in off four consecutive losses - its Bowl hopes dashed following last week's home defeat at the hands of Boston College. With a likely beating at the hands of in-state rival Georgia on deck next week, this essentially becomes the Yellow Jackets Bowl game, in front of a national audience in South Bend as they look to play spoiler against an Irish squad that has CFP aspirations. While the season hasn't exactly gone as the Yellow Jackets would have hoped, save for a blowout loss against Pitt in early October they've been in virtually every game. The Pitt loss marks their only defeat by more than 11 points this season. Notre Dame has rolled past its last two opponents but easy wins have been few and far between in South Bend this season. The Irish defeated Toledo by three, Purdue by 14, lost to Cincinnati, USC by 15 and North Carolina by 10. You get the picture. I simply feel the Irish are being asked to lay too many points in this matchup against a Georgia Tech squad that is capable of putting up plenty of points on offense and isn't as bad as it looked last week on defense. Here, we'll note that the Irish are a woeful 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS, outscoring opponents by just 5.9 points on average in that situation. Take Georgia Tech (9*). |
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11-20-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky -10 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Game of the Month. My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 12 noon et on Saturday. Florida Atlantic's recent dominance in this series combined with the fact that the Owls are 'desperate' for a win to become Bowl eligible is keeping this pointspread in a very reasonable range on Saturday. Keep in mind, 'desperation' doesn't always lead to victory. I think Western Kentucky is the vastly superior team in this matchup and expect the Hilltoppers to win this one going away. At a modest 6-4 on the season, the Hilltoppers are flying well beneath most bettors' radar. They got off to a tough 1-4 start this season but that had everything to do with a difficult non-conference schedule that included competitive road games against the likes of Army and Michigan State. WKU also took nationally-ranked UTSA down to the wire in a wild 52-46 affair back in early October. Here, we find the Hilltoppers fresh off five consecutive victories, going 4-1 ATS along the way. The wheels have come off for Florida Atlantic over the last couple of games as it has dropped consecutive games in blowout fashion against Marshall and Old Dominion. While FAU has taken the last four meetings in this series it's worth noting that it was favored in all four games. Different story here. Look for Western Kentucky to keep rolling at home. Take Western Kentucky (10*). |
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11-19-21 | San Diego State v. UNLV +11 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 11:30 pm et on Friday. San Diego State continues to climb the national rankings but the Aztecs have been anything but a solid bet lately, going 0-2-1 ATS over their last three games. Their last ATS victory came in a narrow six-point win over Air Force. They haven't won a game by more than a touchdown since back on October 9th against lowly New Mexico. UNLV checks in off consecutive victories - its only two wins of the season. Despite their poor overall record, I think the Rebels have made significant progress this season - their 6-4 ATS mark speaks to that. Save for a 48-3 beatdown at the hands of Iowa State back in mid-September, the Rebels have played a competitive brand of football here at Allegiant Stadium, losing a pair of games by a touchdown or less and defeating Hawaii by two touchdowns last week. Here, UNLV will be looking for revenge following a 34-6 beatdown at the hands of the Aztecs last season. Note that the last time these two teams met in Las Vegas, the Rebels easily stayed inside the number in a three-point loss. I look for this one to go down to the wire at the very least as well. Take UNLV (10*). |
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11-19-21 | Avalanche v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -191 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 goals over Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Kraken are reeling right now, losers of five games in a row with the last four coming by at least two goals. While it flies in the face of common sense, I believe they're well-positioned to take the Avalanche down to the wire at the very least on Friday. Note that Colorado checks in just 2-6 in its last eight road games when coming off a road victory in which it scored four goals or more, as is the case here, outscored by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. The Avs are also just 4-8 when playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games going back to last season, outscored by 0.1 goal on average in that situation. The Kraken should have no trouble getting up for this one and I like their chances against the MacKinnon-less Avs on Friday. Take Seattle +1.5 goals (5*). |
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11-19-21 | Jets +100 v. Canucks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Winnipeg over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Jets might look like they're in a tough spot here as they play the second of back-to-back games after a shootout loss in Edmonton last night. I actually like their chances of bouncing back, however, noting that they've gone 11-1 in their lat 12 games following an OT/SO loss, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. Of course, Winnipeg has proven to be a resilient team in recent years, going 22-11 in its last 33 games following a road loss of any kind over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. The Canucks are playing as bad as any team in the league right now as far as I'm concerned and you have to figure head coach Travis Green's days behind the bench are numbered at this point. They'll be in better position to snap their losing skid when they host the Blackhawks on Sunday. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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11-19-21 | Magic v. Nets OVER 209.5 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We already won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season. With the scene shifting to Brooklyn for the rematch on Friday night, I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play. Unders have dominated the NBA landscape so far this season so it's no surprise that we're dealing with another relatively low total for this one. I believe it will prove too low, noting that the Nets have been trending to the 'over' after reeling off seven straight 'under' results to open the campaign. The 'over' has now cashed in six of the Nets last nine contests. This sets up as a smash spot for the Nets offense, noting that they've scored 122, 129, 113 and 123 points in four meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. The Magic are certainly ripe for a letdown after posting their second victory over the Knicks at MSG this season two nights ago. They held New York under 100 points in that game. Keep in mind, Orlando is by no means an elite defensive team. Quite the opposite in fact. Prior to Wednesday's performance it had allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. On the flip side, the Magic were held to only 90 points in the first matchup between these two teams this season (as I mentioned, that game still went 'over' the total and we're dealing with an even lower total on Friday). Interestingly, the Magic have alternated good and bad offensive efforts against Brooklyn. Since the start of last season Orlando has scored 115, 92, 121 and 90 points in four matchups with the Nets. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-21 | Ottawa +14 v. Montreal | Top | 19-18 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We've cashed a number of tickets backing the RedBlacks this season, in spite of their awful overall record. This is another favorable spot to back Ottawa as it wraps up its season by making the short trip to Montreal to face the Alouettes. Note that while the RedBlacks haven't won a game since September 28th, during their current six-game slide they've lost only twice by more than 13 points. Here, they face an Als squad that is playoff-bound and not likely to move out of the third spot in the East Division with Hamilton hosting a Saskatchewan team that has nothing to play for locked into the second spot in the West Division on Saturday. Got all that? Montreal has some injury concerns to deal with here as well. Top wide receiver Eugene Lewis has been limited at practice all week so it remains to be seen how many snaps he'll see on Friday. Meanwhile, Ottawa has actually gotten healthier down the stretch, recently welcoming back one of its best defensive players in Praise Martin-Oguike. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I really think the spot to back the Patriots was last Sunday at home against the Browns. Here, the Pats enter riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak and most feel that a victory over the down-trodden Falcons is a foregone conclusion. I'm not so easily convinced. We've seen the Pats struggle indoors over the years, particularly of late. It's easy to forget that New England won by only three points as an eight-point favorite against the lowly Texans in Houston earlier this season (the Pats also won by a field goal in an indoor game against the Chargers in L.A. back on Halloween). The Falcons couldn't have looked much worse than they did in last Sunday's 43-3 loss to the Cowboys in Dallas (we took a tough loss with the 'over' after the first half saw 39 points scored). While I'm not particularly high on the Falcons in the long-term picture, I am willing to give them somewhat of a pass for last Sunday's awful performance as they were quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time against a Cowboys squad coming off a stunning blowout home loss against the Broncos (while the Falcons were in a clear letdown spot off a big upset win over the division-rival Saints in New Orleans). Speaking of the division, Atlanta checks in just two games back of the NFC South-leading Bucs. With only two of four second-place teams in the NFC sporting winning records, the playoffs are still very much in play for the Falcons, believe it or not. Let's also keep in mind, they haven't lost consecutive games since Weeks 1 and 2. While the Atlanta offense is banged up and may not have the services of RB/WR hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson, the defense is arguably as healthy as any unit in the entire league. Off an embarrassing performance last Sunday, look for the Falcons defense to hold up well against a Pats offense that just isn't as good as it looked in Sunday's rout of the Browns. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 219 | Top | 90-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Spurs first game of their current three-game road trip this past Sunday against the Lakers and were certainly fortunate to do so, cashing that ticket by a single point. San Antonio followed up that game with another low-scoring result against the Clippers. Now we're seeing the lowest posted total of the trip, despite the fact that I believe this sets up as a the highest-scoring affair. While San Antonio is coming off a poor offensive performance, scoring only 92 points in a blowout loss against the Clippers, I do think it is well-positioned to bounce back here. First of all, it is catching Minnesota in a back-to-back spot off a 107-97 win over Sacramento last night. The T'Wolves could certainly fall victim to being 'fat and happy' in this spot after holding the Suns and T'Wolves to 37.6% and 36.6% shooting to open their current homestand. I don't believe the T'Wolves are nearly as good of a defensive team as they've shown. They've caught some opponents in favorable situations and I think it's been more of the case of those opponents having off shooting nights than anything else. I don't expect the Spurs to suffer from such shooting woes tonight, noting that they shoot just shy of 45% as a team on the road this season and have shot worse than 43% just once in their last eight games and on only two previous occasions this entire season. On the flip side, San Antonio is by no means an elite defensive team. In fact, the Spurs have allowed five opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field this season. While Minnesota scored 'only' 107 points in last night's victory, it did shoot 50% from the field and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance in a game that projects to be played at a quicker pace. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Stars v. Wild -126 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Stars last Saturday against the Flyers before losing with the 'under' in their most recent contest - a 5-2 win over the reeling Red Wings two nights ago. Keep in mind, both of those Dallas victories came at home. The Stars have struggled on the road, going 3-5 while being outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals. The Wild are coming off a home loss to the Sharks and have now dropped two of their last three games overall. That's worth noting as they've gone 34-19 when coming off two losses in their last three contests over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.4 goals in that situation. Better still, they're 19-7 in their last 26 games following a home loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average. As for the Stars, they're a woeful 1-10 in their last 11 road games following a win, outscored by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. They're also winless in their last seven tries when heading out on the road after playing consecutive home games, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 goals in that spot. The Wild have taken each of the last three meetings in this series and the last time they faced Thursday's likely starting goaltender for Dallas, Anton Khudobin, they skated to a 7-0 victory here on home ice. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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11-18-21 | Lightning -128 v. Flyers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning have quietly gotten rolling lately, going 6-2 over their last eight games with the only two losses coming by way of overtime. Here, the Bolts will head to Philadelphia, where they haven't dropped a game since January of 2017. The Flyers are coming off an overtime win over the Flames two nights ago. That's worth noting as they've given up an average of 5.4 goals and have been outscored by 2.9 goals on average the last eight times they've come off an overtime victory. In fact, the Flyers are 9-22 when coming off a win going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. Worse still, they've gone a woeful 3-14 the last 17 times they've come off a one-goal victory, as is the case here, outscored by 2.3 goals on average in that spot. The Lightning have been an excellent positive momentum team in similar situations to the one they're in tonight, noting that they're 10-1 the last 11 times they've come off consecutive home victories, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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11-18-21 | UAB -2.5 v. South Carolina | 63-66 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on UAB minus the points over South Carolina at 7 pm et on Thursday. UAB is a team that's flying under the radar but boasts a ton of upside in head coach Andy Kennedy's second season at the helm. The Blazers have gotten off to a perfect 3-0 start, laying waste to the likes of UNC-Asheville, Morehead State and little known Rhodes College. I think they'll welcome the opportunity for this measuring stick game against an SEC foe - even if it is a lower-tier squad from the conference in South Carolina. The Blazers were always going to be a tough defensive team, applying intense pressure on the opposition and we've certainly seen that in the early going as they've forced an incredible 67 turnovers through three games. It's the UAB offense that was the biggest question mark heading into the season after a tough campaign in that regard. Well, early returns are positive as the Blazers have put up 102, 85 and 98 points, shooting better than 48% from the field in all three contests. While they are taking a step up in class here, I think the Blazers will be up for it. South Carolina underwent a tear-down of sort in the offseason, looking to put an awful Covid-tinged 2020-21 campaign behind it. The Gamecocks should be better this season but how much better remains to be seen. They're off to a 2-1 start with the loss coming as a six-point favorite against Princeton. The South Carolina offense has a lot of new pieces to work in, and so far we're seeing some growing pains. Note that the Gamecocks turned the ball over a whopping 24 times last time out against Western Kentucky. If they're careless with the basketball again in this one, the Blazers will make them pay. Take UAB (10*). |
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11-17-21 | Capitals -105 v. Kings | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Capitals saw their four-game winning streak come to an end against the red hot Ducks in Anaheim last night. Credit Washington for at least stealing a point in that game, losing the game in overtime. Here, I like the Caps to bounce right back as they make the short trip to Los Angeles to face the Kings. L.A. has somewhat surprisingly posted seven wins in its last eight games. This is a bit of a tough spot, however, as it returns home 'fat and happy' off a successful four-game road trip that took it across two time zones up north. We'll note that the Kings are a woeful 2-13 the last 15 times they've come off four consecutive road games, outscored by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. The last six times they've returned home off at least four straight road games they've averaged just 1.8 goals and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.9 goals. You would have to go back five meetings to find the last time the Kings beat the Capitals, back in March of 2018. The Caps have come away victorious in each of their last two games in Los Angeles. The last time we saw them play here in late 2019 they were priced as a -150 favorite and skated to a 3-1 win. We're dealing with a much cheaper price to support them here and I like their chances of picking up another victory. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-17-21 | Blackhawks v. Seattle Kraken -145 | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Chicago at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this spot sets up for the expansion Kraken as they look to snap their four-game losing streak (0-2 on their current homestand) against the suddenly surging Blackhawks. While Chicago enters this game off three consecutive wins, it's worth noting that all three of those victories came on home ice. The Blackhawks check in winless on the road this season, having gone 0-6 while being outscored by an average margin of 2.4 goals in those six contests. By contrast, the Kraken have posted three of their four wins here at Climate Pledge Arena this season, outscoring opponents by 0.2 goals on average in their seven home games to date. With much tougher games against Colorado, Washington and Carolina lying ahead on their current homestand, look for the Kraken to make the most of this winnable game on Wednesday. Take Seattle (6*). |
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11-17-21 | UC-Davis +2 v. Pepperdine | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-Davis plus the points over Pepperdine at 10 pm et on Wednesday. If you've followed my plays this season you know that I'm high on Cal-Davis. We backed it in last week's eventual eight-point victory over Eastern Washington that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. Some won while some didn't on that game thanks to some considerable line movement over the course of the day. Here, I believe the Aggies are well-positioned to stage the 'upset' against Pepperdine. The Waves are one of the more overrated teams in college basketball as far as I'm concerned. They've gone 1-2 ATS through three games with their lone victory coming against an offensively-challenged Idaho State squad. The Waves aren't shooting the ball well, nor are they defending well - not overly surprising given their lack of returning talent. Off a disheartening double-digit overtime loss against Utah Valley State, I'm not convinced we see Pepperdine pick itself up off the mat here. Take Cal-Davis (8*). |
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11-17-21 | Northern Colorado v. Texas -20.5 | 49-62 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas minus the points over Northern Colorado at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. I think Northern Colorado, while boasting plenty of talent - particularly at the offensive end of the floor - is quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time on Wednesday night. Texas is coming off a tough 12-point loss against arguably the best team in the country in Gonzaga. That comes on the heels of a win and cover as a whopping 37.5-point favorite in the Longhorns season-opener against Houston Baptist. I'm confident we'll see the 'Horns get right back on track here as the Bears up-tempo style should play right into their hands. Northern Colorado simply doesn't have the same level of talent and athleticism that Texas boasts up and down its lineup. When these two teams last faced each other two years ago we saw Texas roll to a 24-point victory as a 16.5-point favorite. I'm not convinced the gap between the two programs has narrowed at all since, keeping in mind Northern Colorado already has a loss against the likes of Hawaii-Hilo under its belt this season. Texas takes full advantage of this 'get right' spot at home. Take Texas (8*). |
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11-17-21 | Tulane v. Florida State -18 | 54-59 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Tulane at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I love the way this spot sets up for the Seminoles as they come off a disappointing blowout loss against rival Florida on Sunday. Tulane just doesn't have the size or talent to keep pace with Florida State here. Keep in mind, the 'Noles opened the season by scoring 105 points in a 35-point rout of Penn. They simply had an off day shooting the basketball on Sunday. The good news is, their defense did hold up for a second straight game - they've now held both opponents to sub-39% shooting this season. The Green Wave are not surprisingly off to a wildly inconsistent start, only managing to split their first two games, both at home, as considerable favorites against Southeast Louisiana and Southern. The fact that they only managed to put up 70 points in both of those contests doesn't bode well as they take a big step up in class here on Tuesday. Take Florida State (8*). |
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11-17-21 | Wizards v. Hornets | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem hesitant to buy into the Hornets, despite their current three-game winning streak, having most recently taken down the red hot Golden State Warriors on Sunday. Perhaps that shouldn't come as a surprise as Charlotte is just a week removed from a five-game losing streak. Here, I look for the Hornets to 'handle their business' in a home game against the improved and streaking Wizards. Washington checks into this game off five straight wins. Keep in mind, the Wizards were favored in four of those games and the other was a pk'em. Here, we'll note that the Wiz are long-term losers when playing on the road off three ATS wins in their last four games, as is the case here, having gone 82-115 ATS. They're also a miserable 174-219 ATS when coming off consecutive straight-up victories. These two teams met three times last season with Washington winning only once (but not covering) and that victory came at home. To find the last time the Wiz won a game here in Charlotte you would have to go all the way back to 2017. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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11-17-21 | Northern Illinois -1 v. Buffalo | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Buffalo crushed Northern Illinois by 19 points as a 14.5-point favorite in this matchup last year. Let's face it, the 2020 college football season was a unique one, particularly in the MAC where teams only got a chance to play a few games. Here, I look for the Huskies to go right back to dominating the Bulls, noting that prior to last year's matchup they had taken each of the last seven meetings in this series this decade. Buffalo has been a major disappointment this season, at least in my opinion. The Bulls entered the campaign with high hopes, loaded with returning talent, particularly on the offensive side of the football. Unfortunately, the Bulls season got derailed early with four losses in their first six games, posting just one win against FBS opposition along the way (that win came in a non-cover on the road against a weak Old Dominion squad). Their season continues to circle the drain off lopsided losses against Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio and I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat against Northern Illinois. The Huskies have Bowl aspirations, having already gained eligibility with seven wins on the campaign. They enter this contest having gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over their last seven contests. With a win here, Northern Illinois would wrap up the MAC West division and assure itself of a place in the MAC Championship Game. I certainly don't think the Huskies will want to leave anything to chance with a home date against a 'better than its record indicates' Western Michigan squad next week. Take Northern Illinois (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Red Wings v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Stars last five games but I see this as a favorable spot for that trend to reverse as the Red Wings roll into Dallas on the back half of a back-to-back. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with the Red Wings playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games going back to last season with that situation producing an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 the last 13 times the Wings have played on the road following a game that totaled eight goals or more, as is the case here after last night's 5-3 loss in Columbus (we won with the Blue Jackets in that game). That spot has led to an average total of 4.6 goals. As for the Stars, the 'under' is 18-7 the last 25 times they've come off five or more consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of only 4.8 goals in that situation. The 'under' is also a long-term winner at 174-130, averaging 5.3 total goals, when Dallas comes off a win by three goals or more, as is the case here. We'll likely see Alex Nedeljkovic in goal for the Wings tonight after Thomas Greiss started last night. Nedeljkovic has been the better goaltender this season, posting a solid .929 save percentage in four road games. While the 'over' has cashed in two of the last three meetings in this series, the 'under' remains a solid 6-3 in the last nine matchups between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Tarleton St v. Wichita State -12.5 | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wichita State minus the points over Tarleton State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Tarleton State has been given a lot of respect from the betting marketplace in the early going this season following a promising 2020-21 campaign - its first in Division I - not to mention the presence of legendary head coach Billy Gillespie. The Texans have already faced Stanford and Kansas and managed to go 1-0-1 ATS. They'll also go up against Michigan and Gonzaga in road tilts later this month. Note that the Texans turned the ball over just eight times and managed to shoot better than 40% from the field (an accomplishment given the level of opposition) against Kansas last time out but still lost by 26 points. Meanwhile, Wichita State is off to a 2-0 start but has gone 0-2 ATS, defeating Jacksonville State and South Alabama by a combined margin of only nine points. We've certainly yet to see the best from the Shockers - at either end of the floor. They've shot sub-39% in both games while allowing subpar opposition to shoot better than 42% in both contests. This is a Wichita State program that went through plenty of distractions last offseason and by all accounts 2020-21 should have been a down season, yet the Shockers ended up exceeding expectations and receiving an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. They certainly have their sights set on another NCAA Tournament berth this season and have the returning talent to reach that goal. This is a good opportunity for them to ramp up before the schedule gets a whole lot tougher with an opening round matchup against Arizona up next in the Roman Main Event Tournament in Las Vegas on Friday. After that tournament they'll face the likes of Missouri, Oklahoma State and Kansas State in consecutive games, with the latter matchup coming in another early season tournament. Take Wichita State (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The last time these two teams met almost two years ago to the day we saw a closing total of 47.5 points in a game that snuck just below that number. I believe we're dealing with a higher number here largely due to the recent wild, high-scoring results we've seen in these weeknight MAC tilts. In fact, the 'over' has cashed in each of Bowling Green's last five games while the 'over' is a perfect 2-0 in Miami-Ohio's last two contests. I look for a reversal of that trend here. Bowling Green's offense came crashing back to Earth last week following a 56-point outburst against Buffalo the previous week. Last Wednesday we saw the Eagles score just 17 points in a blowout loss at Toledo. Note that the Eagles have been held to 21 or fewer pass completions in five straight games, topping 16 completions only twice over that stretch. They're averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt against opponents that allow an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Their running game hasn't been any better but I do expect them to lean on their ground attack in an effort to effectively shorten this contest as a big underdog on Tuesday night. Miami-Ohio scored a season-high 45 points in last week's win over Buffalo. It had previously topped out at 34 points this season. There's no question the Redhawks strength is on the defensive side of the football, noting that they've allowed 18 points or less in four of six conference games so far this season. While they did put up 45 points last week, that was on the strength of four Buffalo turnovers. Bowling Green has struggled this season but actually checks in having turned the football over only four times over its last four games combined. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 18-3 the last 21 times Miami-Ohio has come off consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 47.3 points in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 221 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The NBA season got off to a low-scoring start for sure. Both of these teams were a part of that for sure as the Warriors opened with seven of their first eight games going 'under' the total while the Nets started the campaign with seven consecutive 'under' results. Since then, we've seen a different story unfold, however. The 'over' has cashed in three of the Warriors last five games and four of the Nets last five contests, including each of the last three. With that being said, Golden State is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair in Charlotte as it fell by a 106-102 score. That leaves us with a very reasonable total in Tuesday's matchup in Brooklyn, especially when you consider last season's two meetings saw closing totals of 238 and 246 points with both of those games surpassing the total we're working with tonight. I mentioned the Nets roll into this game on a three-game 'over' streak. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 18-8 the last 26 times they've come off two or more straight 'over' results, producing an average total of 236.1 points in that situation. While there are plenty of 'under' trends at play when it comes to the Warriors, the majority of those situations have still produced higher average totals than we're working with on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-21 | South Alabama +23.5 v. Alabama | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Alabama plus the points over Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. With Alabama off to a perfect 2-0 start, both SU and ATS, cashing in a much lower pointspread range than we're working with tonight, this looks like the ideal time to step in and fade the Crimson Tide against an underrated South Alabama squad. The Jaguars are pegged by many to be a top-three team in the Sun Belt Conference this season, with a wealth of talent coming in by way of transfers, as is often the case under head coach Richie Riley. Riley apparently turned down a head coaching offer from Utah State in the offseason, which obviously would have been a higher-profile position. I don't really blame him as he's building something special at USA and might have his most talented team yet here in his fourth year at the helm. Alabama obviously boasts much loftier goals than USA. However, the Crimson Tide do have plenty of losses to deal with from last season's impressive squad. They've gotten off to a blistering start at the offensive end of the floor, shooting 50% and 49% in scoring 93 and 104 points against Louisiana Tech and South Dakota State, respectively, but I expect them to run into a bit more trouble against South Alabama and its predominantly zone defense. South Alabama has to feel pretty good about itself after suffering a narrow six-point loss against likely NCAA Tournament squad Wichita State, on the road no less, last time out. The Jaguars would love nothing more than to pick up an early season marquee victory, even if it is highly unlikely here. Nothing that they've gone 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog, we'll simply count on them to stay inside the lofty pointspread as I think a lot of bettors are sleeping on the Jags at this early stage of the campaign. Take South Alabama (8*). |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan -5.5 v. Eastern Michigan | 21-22 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Eastern Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. With both of these teams performing horribly on the defensive side of the football in recent weeks, this play really comes down to which team I think can bounce back in that regard on Tuesday night. As far as I'm concerned, it's Western Michigan that boasts the far more talented defense, while also possessing an offense that is better than it showed (which is saying something) in last week's closer-than-expected 45-40 over lowly Akron. Note that Western Michigan had absolutely dominated this series prior to the last two years in which Eastern Michigan staged upset wins as nine and 13.5-point underdogs. Needless to say, the Broncos will be out for revenge here, while also trying to keep their faint hopes of a MAC West title alive. They're currently sitting in a tie for last place but only two games back of division-leading Northern Illinois, which they will face in next week's regular season finale. Its chances are slim to be sure, but expect the Broncos to put forth a strong effort regardless. Keep in mind, while EMU was beating up on the likes of UMass and Texas State (among others) during its non-conference slate, WMU went toe-to-toe with Michigan, Pittsburgh and San Jose State, even staging an outright upset of Pitt, on the road no less. In other words, these two teams may have identical overall records, but I certainly consider the Broncos to be the superior team, initially a consensus pick to finish second in the MAC West. Likely headed to a Bowl game and with the aforementioned faint hope of reaching the MAC title game, everything is technically still in front of WMU. EMU still has plenty to play for but doesn't really control its own destiny with its regular season finale coming against Central Michigan next week. Take Western Michigan (8*). |
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11-16-21 | Sabres v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have been trending toward the 'over' lately and I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. The Sabres have seen five of their last six games go 'over' the total as their defensive and goaltending woes continue. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 21-9 in their last 30 games when coming off a one-goal loss, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals. While not much was expected from the Sabres offensively this season, they have actually been pretty consistent in that regard, scoring two goals or more in nine straight games and three or more in seven of those nine contests. The Pens check in having allowed a whopping 12 goals over their last two games - both losses. Like Buffalo, Pittsburgh has an ongoing problem with keeping the puck out of its own net. Note that the 'over' is a staggering 11-1 in the Pens last 12 games following a road loss by two goals or more, producing an average total of 8.2 goals in that spot. Tristan Jarry will likely get the start in goal for the Pens in this one. His last four home starts against the Sabres have resulted in 12, 7, 7 and 6 total goals. If we don't see Jarry in this one that would mean Casey DeSmith would get the start and he has posted an ugly .856 save percentage in three games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Southern Utah +11 v. St. Mary's | Top | 51-70 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Southern Utah plus the points over St. Mary's at 10 pm et on Monday. St. Mary's is poised to take a step forward after a rare down year in 2020-21 but it certainly can't afford to sleep on a Southern Utah squad that went 20-4 last season and brings pretty much everyone that matters back into the fold. The Thunderbirds are coming off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite at Dixie State, however, and with that in mind, I feel they're undervalued in this matchup against what has long been considered a 'name brand' program in St. Mary's. This game will feature a sharp contrast in styles as Southern Utah boasts an explosive offense and will look to push the pace. St. Mary's is more adept at slowing things down. The Gaels look to eliminate passing lanes and force turnovers at the defensive end of the floor. I'm not convinced they'll have an easy time doing so against a seasoned Thunderbirds squad that excels on dribble handoffs and driving to the basket. Note that St. Mary's has only outscored opponents by 6.9 points on average when coming off consecutive wins over the last 2+ seasons (26-game sample size). That's close to where I feel this line should be sitting but with the Gaels 2-0 off back-to-back comfortable wins and Southern Utah fresh off the aforementioned upset loss to little-known Dixie State, we're being given a fairly generous cushion. Take Southern Utah (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 212 | Top | 129-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over between Sacramento and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Kings have somewhat surprisingly trended toward the 'under' this season and are coming off another low-scoring result in a narrow two-point loss in Oklahoma City on Friday. Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from a while 136-117 loss in San Antonio. Here, we'll note that Sacramento road games have totaled an average of 220.9 points over the last 2+ seasons. The Kings lone trip to Detroit last season produced 217 points. The Pistons two best offensive showings of the season have come in their last three games as they put up 112 and 127 points in wins over Houston and Toronto, respectively. Note that they've allowed an average of 115.4 points when coming off a victory going back to last season, with those contests producing an average total of 217.7 points. I like the fact that Detroit shook out of its shooting slump by knocking down an incredible 54.4% of its shots against the Raptors on Saturday and now gets to face a Kings squad that has been vulnerable defensively on its current road trip and has also been pushing the pace, hoisting up 92 and 95 field goal attempts in its last two contests. I simply feel the erratic nature of the two offenses in the early going this season is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Red Wings v. Blue Jackets -123 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Monday. With confirmation that Elvis Merzlikins will start for the Blue Jackets on Monday, we'll back them at a short price against the upstart Red Wings. Merzlikins' presence between the pipes is key as the Jackets have won five of his seven starts this season and he's posted a solid .929 save percentage. Backup Joonas Korpisalo on the other hand has gone 2-3 with an .897 save percentage. The Red Wings are admittedly playing well, winners of four of their last five games. They already defeated Columbus once this season by a 4-1 score in Detroit back on October 19th. Here, we'll note, however, that the Wings average just 1.6 goals and have been outscored by 1.1 goals on average the last 12 times they've played on the road off a home win against a division opponents, as is the case here. The Jackets, meanwhile, average 3.6 goals and outscore opponents by 0.4 goals on average the last 16 times they've played at home off a home loss against a division opponent. Take Columbus (6*). |
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11-14-21 | Canucks v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and Anaheim at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The Ducks are coming off a seven-goal explosion against Seattle on Thursday, which came on the heels of a 3-2 win over the same Canucks they'll face again on Sunday. Note that you would have to go back three meetings here in Anaheim to find the last time these two teams combined to score more than three goals. Here, we'll note that the Ducks have posted a 1-11 o/u record when playing at home off a win by two goals or more going back to last season with that situation totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. The 'under' is 13-4 the last 17 times Anaheim has played at home after putting up four goals or more in their last game, as is the case here, producing an average total of 4.7 goals in that spot. As for the Canucks, the 'under' is a long-term winner at 74-58 with them playing on the road looking for revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent, with that situation leading to an average total of 5.1 goals. Also note that the Canucks average just 2.2 goals when coming off a game that totaled eight goals or more going back to last season (16-game sample size). Jaro Halak may get the start in goal for Vancouver tonight but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he has arguably been better than regular starter Thatcher Demko, who started last night's 7-4 loss in Las Vegas. Meanwhile, both John Gibson and Anthony Stolarz have exceeded admittedly low expectations between the pipes in Anaheim this season. Take the under (6*). |
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11-14-21 | Eagles +2.5 v. Broncos | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles may have lost last week (we cashed a ticket fading them with the Chargers) but this is a team that has made progress over its last couple of games, starting with that dominating performance in Detroit two weeks ago (we won with the Eagles in that game). Each of Philadelphia's three victories this season have come on the road and I believe they're well-positioned to pick up another win in Denver on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a stunning blowout win in Dallas last Sunday. Here, they'll be trying for their second three-game winning streak of the season as they inexplicably hang around in the AFC West race. This isn't a team that has great prospects for the rest of the season, however, not with all of their key injuries (and departures) on the defensive side of the football. I think they're going to have to put up plenty of points to earn a win here on Sunday but we've actually seen their offense regress (believe it or not after last week's outburst in Dallas), with QB Teddy Bridgewater completing just 38 passes over the last two games and throwing for 217 yards or less in three straight contests. The Eagles have given up a very high completion percentage in recent weeks but aren't giving up a ton of yardage relatively speaking. They've held opponents to 6.9 yards per pass attempt this season (and 4.0 yards per rush). A brutal schedule has certainly contributed to the Eagles going 3-6 through their first nine games but it lightens up from here. After hosting the Saints next week, Philadelphia will face the Giants (twice), Jets and Washington (twice) over its next five contests. In other words, there's no reason to throw in the towel just yet. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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11-14-21 | Spurs v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have been involved in consecutive high-scoring 'over' results but both of those games were played at home. San Antonio's six road games this season have averaged just 204.8 total points with the 'under' cashing at a 5-1 clip. With a number of key injuries, the Lakers have been highly-inconsistent offensively of late and are coming off an ugly 107-83 loss to the T'Wolves here at home on Friday. That's the same T'Wolves squad that the Clippers hung 129 points on last night (we won with the 'over' in that game). Note that the 'under' is 28-15 in the Lakers last 43 games with the total set at 220 points or higher. The 'under' is also 19-8 in Los Angeles' last 27 games as a home favorite of six points or less with that situation resulting in an average total of 213.9 points. As for the Spurs, the last 17 times they've played on the road off a loss they've seen an average total of just 216.5 points scored. Take the under (7*). |
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11-14-21 | Bills -11.5 v. Jets | Top | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The setup doesn't get much better than this as the Bills come off an ugly loss in Jacksonville last Sunday and now head back to the AFC East for a division road game against the Jets in the Meadowlands. The Jets were the 'flavor of the month' so to speak after they delivered a huge upset win as a double-digit underdog at home against the Bengals two weeks ago. Any positive momentum gained from that victory is long gone now after they dropped a blowout decision that wasn't even as close as the 45-30 final score indicated in Indianapolis a week ago Thursday. QB Mike White had the gall to suggest that he believes he should have been a first overall pick at a press conference this week. Just a little more bulletin board material for a Bills defense that will be looking to tee off on Sunday afternoon. Note that Buffalo has allowed just 13.2 points on average the last 11 times it has come off a loss. Speaking of teeing off, the Bills offense should 'go off' after QB Josh Allen was upstaged by his namesake on the Jaguars defense last Sunday. That poor performance does nothing to change the fact that the Bills boast one of the most talented and creative offenses in the league under coordinator Brian Daboll and I fully expect them to respond with a monster performance against a Jets defense that just got roasted by the Colts balanced attack last week. On the flip side, after scoring 30+ points in consecutive games, New York's offense is in for a wake-up call here. Lost in last week's defeat at the hands of the Jags was the fact that Buffalo allowed only nine points on 218 yards of total offense, despite being put in tough situations all afternoon long. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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11-14-21 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 54.5 | Top | 3-43 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. We ended up just missing with the 'over' in the Cowboys stunning blowout loss to the Broncos here last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this Sunday as Dallas hosts Atlanta. The Falcons are in a clear letdown spot after a wild upset win over the Saints in New Orleans last Sunday. While I don't expect Atlanta to notch a second straight underdog victory here, I do think it can contribute enough offense to help this one 'over' the total. The Cowboys have been vulnerable against tight ends this season and the Falcons obviously have a good one in rookie Kyle Pitts. We've seen Falcons veteran QB Matt Ryan settle in a little bit in recent weeks, save for an ugly defensive slugfest against the Panthers, and here I think we can have confidence that we'll see him bomb away, noting that he's thrown for 325 yards or more in three of the last four contests. On the flip side, the Cowboys offense is set to eat against a very beatable Falcons defense on Sunday. We did see Dak Prescott and the offense round into form late in last week's loss, even if that had more to do with game script playing from well behind than anything else. We know that this offense is far better than it showed in that game against Denver - I think the argument can be made that the Cowboys overlooked a Broncos squad that was ravaged with injuries and had just dealt away its best defensive player in Von Miller. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Dallas' last two games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 the last 15 times the Cowboys have come off an upset home loss by two touchdowns or more. Over the last 2+ seasons we've seen Dallas post a 9-1 o/u record when coming off an upset loss of any kind, with that situation producing an average total of 59.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-14-21 | Browns v. Patriots UNDER 45.5 | 7-45 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams will enter this game confident that they can lean on running the football and playing tough defense to earn a much-needed victory on Sunday afternoon. Don't be misled by the Browns wild, high-scoring 41-16 rout of Cincinnati last week. The Bengals simply didn't take care of the football in that game and Cleveland took full advantage. It's not as if the Browns offense had to do much of the heavy lifting in that contest. They gained just 361 total yards and completed only 14 passes in the victory. New England somewhat inexplicably had a four-game 'over' streak going prior to last week's low-scoring affair against the Panthers. Note that they've racked up well north of 30 rushing attempts in three straight games while completing 18 or fewer passes in three of their last four games overall. Running the football on offense - and effectively shortening the game - while playing stout defense is a formula that has worked for Bill Bellichick this season and I can't see him straying from that in this very manageable matchup with the Browns. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Browns have come off a win by 21 points or more, resulting in an average total of only 32.8 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-3 in the Patriots last 14 games where the total has been set between 42.5 and 49 points, as is the case here, producing an average total of 42.7 points in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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11-13-21 | Wolves v. Clippers OVER 220 | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. The T'Wolves are coming off a low-scoring blowout win over the Lakers here at Staples Center last night, ended a brief string of consecutive 'over' results. The Clippers on the other hand have seen their last three games go 'over' the total and I look for that trend to continue here. The Clips are absolutely rolling offensively right now, having scored 120, 117 and 112 points in the first three games of their current homestand. They've had their way with the T'Wolves in recent years, scoring at least 115 points in 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series. While Minnesota's offense has come around on its current road trip, it continues to struggle defensively, and should for the foreseeable future. The Wolves caught the Lakers in a very difficult spot last night, undermanned and coming off a tough overtime win over the Heat, and took full advantage. Here, they won't be so fortunate. Note that the T'Wolves have seen an average total of 230.3 points the last 17 times they've come off an outright underdog win. The 'over' is 25-10 with Minnesota on the road coming off five or six losses over its last seven games over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 238.1 points. Take the over (8*). |
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11-13-21 | Flyers v. Stars -145 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Stars are reeling right now, losers of two in a row and four of their last six games overall. I do think they're well-positioned to get back on track on Saturday, however, as they host the Flyers, who are in a tough back-to-back and three-in-four spot after an upset win in Carolina last night. Note that Philadelphia is just 3-12 in its last 15 games following a win over a division opponent, as is the case here, outscored by 2.2 goals on average in that situation. They're 0-9 in their last nine games off a road win by one goal, outscored by a whopping average of 3.9 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Stars are a long-term winner at 116-57 when coming off a loss against a division opponent by two goals or more, averaging 3.2 goals and outscoring the opposition by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. You would have to go back five meetings here in Dallas - all the way to 2014 - to find the last time the Flyers won a game on the road against the Stars. Take Dallas (7*). |
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11-13-21 | Evansville v. Belmont -13.5 | 43-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Belmont minus the points over Evansville at 5 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Belmont Bruins here as they look to respond following an 'upset' loss against Ohio last time out. Here, they'll catch Evansville 'fat and happy' off a 20-point rout of an overmatched IUPUI squad two nights ago. Keep in mind, the Purple Aces opened their season with a 22-point loss against Cincinnati. While they do figure to be stronger than they were a year ago, they're still going to face an uphill battle against their tougher non-conference foes, and Belmont certainly falls into that category. These teams actually met last season with Belmont prevailing by nine points on the road. Evansville knocked down 11 threes compared to Belmont's four on that night to keep the game competitive. It also turned the ball over only 11 times. Here, the Purple Aces check in having turned it over 28 times through two contests. Look for Belmont to apply the pressure and ultimately pull away for a comfortable victory on Saturday, noting that the Bruins are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games following an ATS loss, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 18.3 points in that situation. Take Belmont (6*). |
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11-13-21 | Southern Miss v. UTSA -33 | 17-27 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on UTSA minus the points over Southern Miss at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We went against Southern Miss last Saturday and were rewarded with a lopsided North Texas victory as the Mean Green Eagles easily covered the short pointspread. Here, we're dealing with a much larger spread, but also a much bigger mismatch. Southern Miss' season is circling the drain and has been for the last two months. The Golden Eagles have lost seven straight games both SU and ATS. Their lone victory this season came against FCS opponent Grambling in a game they were favored by more than three touchdowns. UTSA is enjoying a dream season, reeling off nine straight victories while going 8-1 ATS along the way. The Roadrunners have been explosive on offense, averaging 4.6 yards per rush and 8.2 yards per pass attempt while also dominating the conference defensively, giving up just 2.7 yards per rush. They have been somewhat vulnerable against the pass, giving up 7.2 yards per pass attempt but Southern Miss is unlikely to take advantage, noting that the Eagles have 41-of-82 (50%) of their passes for only 332 yards over their last three games and that stretch included a pair of weak defensive teams in Middle Tennessee State and North Texas. I see this as an ideal spot to fade Southern Miss once again as it comes off a rare game where it didn't turn the football over. On the flip side, UTSA didn't force a single turnover in last week's rout of UTEP after forcing at least two in each of its previous six contests. Take UTSA (9*). |
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11-13-21 | Rutgers v. Indiana -7 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -101 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Rutgers at 12 noon et on Saturday. Few teams have faced a tougher schedule than Indiana this season. Save for a Week 2 home date against Idaho - a game the Hoosiers won 56-14 - Indiana has gone up against the best the Big Ten has to offer including matchups with Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan. Even the Hoosiers non-conference tilts - aside from the game against Idaho - have been difficult as the Hoosiers faced Cincinnati and Western Kentucky, winning the latter contest. Now the Hoosiers finally get a break as they host Rutgers on Saturday afternoon. The Scarlet Knights have just one win in their last six games and that came against one of the Big Ten's worst teams, Illinois. Rutgers got beat down physically in last week's 52-3 rout at Wisconsin. It has now been held to 13 points or less in five of its last six games. This series hasn't been particularly close with Indiana taking five straight meetings, with the last two coming by a combined 72-21 margin in 2019-2020. While it could be argued that the Hoosiers have nothing to play for at this point with their Bowl hopes having already been dashed, they should relish the role of playing spoiler as they can strike a major blow to the Scarlet Knights Bowl aspirations with a victory on Saturday. Keep in mind, Indiana has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite going back to last season, outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 35.1 points on average in that situation. Take Indiana (10*). |
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11-13-21 | East Carolina v. Memphis OVER 59 | 30-29 | Push | 0 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between East Carolina and Memphis at 12 noon et on Saturday. The 'under' has cashed in each of East Carolina's last four games and each of Memphis' last three contests entering Saturday's matchup between these two AAC squads. I expect a different story to unfold here as this contest has serious shootout potential. East Carolina has benefited from playing from ahead in the last couple of weeks, rolling to lopsided wins over South Florida and Temple. I'm not sure the Pirates will be so fortunate here and fully expect them to be bombing away for much of the afternoon. Game script has allowed the Memphis defense to hold up just fine in recent weeks but I still consider that unit to be among the weakest in the conference, perhaps even the country. Keep in mind, this is the same Tigers squad that gave up 50 points against Arkansas State and 34 points against Temple earlier this season. Meanwhile, the Memphis offense has been held down by Central Florida and SMU over the last two contests but should bust loose here, noting that East Carolina has allowed 5.0 yards per rush and 8.1 yards per pass play on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming v. Boise State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wyoming and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. Few pay much attention to the Wyoming Cowboys and perhaps rightfully so at this point as they've fizzled with four losses in their last five games. For those that are paying attention, though, they know that the Cowboys can play some defense. That unit has remained healthy this season and it's loaded with experience and talent. The results on the field have bared that out as they've allowed 27 points or less in all but one of their games (consider that wild 50-43 victory over Northern Illinois back in Week 2 an aberration). They're allowing only 4.2 yards per rush and a staggering 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Boise State certainly offers a stiff challenge after putting up 40 points on the road against Fresno State last time out but it's not as if the Broncos have been consistently lighting up the scoreboard this season. Note that Boise State has been held to 28 points or less in five of its last seven games. The Broncos enter this contest playing some of their best defensive football of the season, having held three of their last four opponents under 20 points. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in all four of those games. Wyoming hasn't taken major strides forward offensively this season and we know the Broncos can contain that unit, noting that they've allowed a grand total of just 54 points in the last four meetings in this series. Both teams like to run the football, which obviously helps keep the clock moving and supports our cause with the 'under'. Note that Wyoming checks in having topped out at 15 pass completions in a game this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 54-35 in Wyoming's last 89 games a road underdog and 61-40 in Boise State's last 101 contests as a home favorite. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Blackhawks | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday. The Coyotes have been a mess this season. They enter Friday's game off another lopsided loss - this one coming in a nationally-televised game against the Wild (we won with the 'over' in that game). I do expect them to put up a fight against the Blackhawks on Friday, however. I don't believe the Coyotes are as bad as they've looked so far this season. Here, we'll note that Arizona has allowed just 1.6 goals on average the last 13 times it has come off consecutive games in which it allowed four goals or more, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. On the flip side, the Blackhawks check in giving up 3.5 goals on average after holding consecutive opponents to two goals or less over the last 2+ seasons. Arizona is also a solid 8-2 the last 10 times it has played on the road off a home loss, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are a woeful 5-14 in their last 19 home games after winning two of their last three contests, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. You would have to go back five meetings in this series to find the last time the Blackhawks defeated the Coyotes by two goals or more. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (6*). |
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11-12-21 | Blazers -6.5 v. Rockets | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Blazers have yet to register a victory on the road this season but they've also faced some pretty tough opposition. This game against Houston marks their best chance at a road win and I expect them to come up big. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are a woeful 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points, outscored by 10.7 points on average in that situation. They're also a miserable 1-12 ATS in their last 13 home games after scoring 105 points or less in their last contest, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 14.5 points in that spot. Last time out, the Rockets held the Pistons to 43.3% shooting and turned the ball over only 13 times - well below their season-average of 19 - yet still lost by eight points in a game where they closed as a three-point favorite. I simply feel it will be a case of the Rockets being in the wrong place at the wrong time as they face a Blazers squad that will be looking to take its frustrations out on Friday night. Take Portland (7*). |
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11-12-21 | Hamilton v. Toronto OVER 44 | Top | 12-31 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday night in Toronto. Hamilton's scores have quietly been creeping up as it has seen back-to-back and three of its last four games overall go 'over' the total. The Ti-Cats should be able to find plenty of offensive success in this one, especially when you consider the Argos will be without their defensive anchor in Charleston Hughes. The Argos defense has held up alright in the last two games but that was against two severely limited offenses in B.C. and Ottawa. Here, Toronto will be taking a step up in class against a Hamilton offense that has been led by a passing game that has completed 86 of its last 114 passes (75%) for right around 1,300 yards over the last four games alone. On the flip side, we have seen the Argos offense exceed expectations somewhat (at least my expectations) with QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson taking over the reins following Nick Arbuckle's departure. The Argos offense will get some help with the return of underrated RB D.J. Foster on Friday as well. Note that Toronto has put up at least 23 points in five of its last six games overall and has attempted 38 or more passes in each of its last four games. With the last two meetings in this series staying under the 50-point mark, there's reason to believe we'll see some positive regression to the mean here, noting that we haven't seen three straight matchups between these rivals stay under 50 since back in 2017. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-21 | Capitals -125 v. Blue Jackets | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Blue Jackets are rolling along right now, riding a season-long three-game winning streak. However, they haven't played since last Saturday. I'm not sure an extended layoff was what they wanted after such a solid stretch of hockey. Here, we'll note that the Jackets have averaged just 1.8 goals and been outscored by 0.6 goals on average the last nine times they've played on three or more days' rest, as is the case here. Now they welcome the Capitals to Columbus on Friday night, noting that Washington has posted back-to-back victories following a three-game slide. Last night's narrow 2-0 win in Detroit was somewhat misleading as the Caps dominated that game, allowing only 21 shots on goal in the shutout victory. I like the way they're set up here as they'll face Blue Jackets goaltender Joonas Korpisalo (Columbus plays again at home against the Rangers tomorrow night). Korpisalo has performed reasonably well this season but there is certainly a gap between he and number one goaltender Elvis Merzlikins, who has recorded a stellar .940 save percentage this season, leading the Jackets to five wins in his six starts. By contrast, Columbus has only managed to split Korpisalo's four starts to date. After winning consecutive games the Blue Jackets have been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals in their next contest over the last 2+ seasons (24-game sample size), as is the case here. Take Washington (5*). |
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11-12-21 | Eastern Washington v. UC-Davis -8 | 76-84 | Push | 0 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-Davis minus the points over Eastern Washington at 5 pm et on Friday. Credit Eastern Washington for putting up 76 points in its season-opener against Nevada but it still fell by 15 points in that game and I'm not convinced we'll see the Eagles improve on that losing margin by much in this one. It's going to be an uphill battle early on for EWU this season as few programs in the country have had to endure more roster turnover. Now the Eagles face exactly the type of team you don't want to see with a new-look lineup out of the gate as Cal-Davis plays a frenetic style of defense that will press for a full 40 minutes. That pesky defense led the Aggies to a big 72-69 upset win over Utah State in their season-opener. They secured the win despite shooting sub-40% from the field and knocking down just 6-of-21 three-point attempts. That's pretty much par for the course for a team that is never going to be known for its sharp-shooting. Cal-Davis will once again rely on hoisting up shots and crashing the boards and should find some success doing so against an EWU squad that is extremely vulnerable as it tries to work so many new pieces into the rotation. Note that the Eagles forced just nine turnovers in their opener. I'm not sure we can expect them to shoot better than the 43.9% they posted against Nevada and certainly anticipate them turning the ball over more than the 14 times they did in that contest. Look for an experienced Aggies squad to take another stride forward on Friday afternoon. Take Cal-Davis (10*). |
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11-11-21 | Heat v. Clippers -3.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Miami at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way the Clippers are playing right now, finding their way after a tough start to the season. They check into tonight's contest riding a five-game winning streak, having scored 120 and 117 points in the first two games of their current homestand. They're catching the Heat in the right place at the right time tonight as Miami has gotten off to a tough 0-2 start to its current road trip, suffering consecutive emotional losses against the Nuggets and Lakers. I'm not convinced the Heat can simply flip the switch after shooting 39.7% and 41.7% in their last two games and now facing a solid Clippers defense. Note that Miami is a woeful 4-13 ATS when coming off consecutive losses going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 5.2 points in that situation. You would have to go back six meetings in this series all the way to December of 2018 to find the last time Miami managed to post a victory (0-5 SU and ATS last five meetings). Take Los Angeles (9*). |
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11-11-21 | Cal-Riverside v. Arizona State UNDER 142 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UC-Riverside and Arizona State at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Expectations are fairly high for both of these teams although Arizona State certainly boasts the loftier goals. The Sun Devils are hoping that a number of key transfers can help them rebound from a disastrous Covid-tinged 2020-21 season. Meanwhile, Riverside is hoping to build on the progress it made during a big 'step up' campaign last season. The Highlanders will once again hang their hats on their defensive play, which should be every bit as sound as it was a year ago. They drew a tough season-opening matchup on Tuesday but still managed to hold their own, allowing only 66 points while limiting San Diego State to 49 field goal attempts. The problem was their own three-point shots weren't falling (6-of-22 from three-point range) in an eventual 13-point loss as a 12.5-point underdog. Arizona State will look to play fast, just as it always has under Bobby Hurley. I do think the Highlanders are capable of frustrating the Sun Devils a bit in that regard though. Like Riverside, Arizona State struggled from beyond the arc in its season-opener, knocking down only 7-of-26 three-point attempts. The Sun Devils ultimately scored 76 points against Portland on Tuesday, but only managed to do so thanks to hoisting up 66 shots - a number I'm not convinced they can approach here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina +7 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 23-30 | Push | 0 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
CFB ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over Pittsburgh at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Tar Heels are coming off their biggest win of the season last Saturday as they rallied to defeat Wake Forest, essentially keeping their hopes of reaching a Bowl game alive. Riding the high of that comeback victory, I think getting right back on the field on a short week is the best thing for the Tar Heels right now. They're in desperate need of a spark having yet to post consecutive wins this season but I think they have a shot at it here. Pitt hasn't traditionally had an overwhelming home field advantage, playing its home games at an NFL stadium in Heinz Field. The Panthers have already lost two home games this season, against MAC squad Western Michigan and a bumbling Miami Hurricanes team. Here, Pitt will be looking to register a second straight win over North Carolina after defeating the Tar Heels back in 2019. Wins have been few-and-far-between for the Panthers in this series, however, and I believe they'll be hard-pressed to win, let alone cover the lofty pointspread here. Here, we'll note that North Carolina is 34-17 ATS the last 51 times it has come off four or five ATS losses in its last six games, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 points in that situation. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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11-11-21 | Islanders v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Islanders collapsed in the third period in Sunday's 5-2 loss to the Wild (we won with Minnesota in that game). If you know the Islanders and their style of play under head coach Barry Trotz, you know that they'll be determined to tighten things up in advance of Thursday's game against the Devils. Keep in mind, they last time they allowed five goals in a game this season, they followed that up with a 4-1 win in Chicago. This game sets up similarly. Here, the Devils check in off consecutive wins including a wild 7-3 victory over the Panthers (who were in a tough back-to-back spot with their backup goaltender forced to start both games) on Tuesday night. That sets New Jersey up in a spot here where it has gone 0-10 the last 10 times it has come off consecutive wins, averaging just 1.8 goals in that situation. Ordinarily, the Devils have a tendency to give up a lot of goals in that situation - an average of 4.4 to be exact. However, I'm not sure the Isles are well-positioned to take advantage offensively here. New York has averaged just 1.8 goals itself when playing on the road off a loss by three goals or more going back to last season (11-game sample size). The 'under' is 23-9 with the Isles coming off a loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. You would have to go all the way back to January of 2018 to find the last time these two teams combined to score more than five goals in a game here in Newark. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Wild v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. After being held to a grand total of three goals over a five-game stretch we saw the Coyotes finally break out and earn their first win of the season in the process in their most recent game - a 5-4 victory over the expansion Kraken on Saturday. They've now scored 10 goals in three home games this season and I believe they're well-positioned to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total on Wednesday as well. Minnesota has had no such problems scoring goals. In fact, the Wild check in having won three straight games, scoring 13 goals in regulation time along the way. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 the last nine times the Wild have come off a win by three goals or more, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've seen Minnesota allow an ugly 3.9 goals on average the last 21 times they've come off a home win by two goals or more. The Coyotes on the other hand have posted a 24-13 o/u record after losing three of their last four games over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 6.0 goals in that spot. Arizona averages 3.2 goals when playing at home after giving up four goals or more in its most recent contest going back to last season as well. Of course, the 'Yotes have had major issues between the pipes this season. They've already used four different goaltenders and none of them have fared all that well. On the flip side, the Wild haven't been all that stout at the back end either. Cam Talbot has been the better of their goaltending duo but even he owns a less than impressive .904 save percentage. The most recent meeting in this series totaled just five goals here in Arizona last April. To find the last time consecutive meetings in Arizona stayed 'under' six total goals you would have to go back to a stretch between December 2015 and April 2017 - that's going back eight meetings here in the desert. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 222.5 | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles last night. Here, we'll switch gears a little bit and play the first half 'over' only, out of respect for the Suns coaching and their advantage of catching Portland in a back-to-back spot. There's certainly a chance we see Phoenix make the necessary adjustments at halftime and for the Blazers offense to fade in the second half in this spot - at least I believe that's well within the realm of possibility on Wednesday. Damian Lillard wasn't happy with the officiating in last night's game, or this season in general. He feels he's not getting the calls he should be. I would certainly expect him to come out aggressively against the Suns on Wednesday and I do think he'll get some of those calls he's been pining for. The Suns are of course without DeAndre Ayton but did manage to post a 109-104 victory in Sacramento on Monday. We have seen them consistently get off to slow starts defensively, allowing 59, 61, 58 and 64 points in the first half of their last four contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 38-21 in the first half with the Blazers having won two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 119.2 points. Meanwhile, the Suns have posted a 15-5 o/u mark in the first half going back to last season when coming off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, producing an average total of 115.8 points. Take the first half over (8*). |
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11-10-21 | Predators v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. Last week I talked at length about how the Stars could see their o/u record start to reverse course toward the 'over' after a string of eight consecutive 'under' results to start the season. We saw just that as each of their last three games went 'over' the total. I expect a return to 'normal' as they return home on Wednesday to host the Predators, however. The Preds have posted a 4-8 o/u mark so far this season. Interestingly, if you only consider games where they've followed up at least two days off, the 'under' has gone a perfect 3-0. That's the case here as they've been idle since Sunday in Chicago. Here, we'll note that the Stars have posted a 1-10 o/u mark in their last 11 home games when coming off a road loss, resulting in an average total of only 4.4 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also a solid 24-11 the last 35 times they've come off three losses in their last four games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals in that situation. As for the Preds, they've had a tendency to get involved in tighter, lower-scoring games as road trips wear on, having posted a 6-16 o/u mark when playing on the road off two or more consecutive road games going back to last season. That spot has produced an average total of 5.0 goals and is already a perfect 2-0 to the 'under' on their current road trip. The last two meetings between these two teams in Dallas did go 'over' the total. We haven't seen three straight matchups in Big D between the Preds and Stars go 'over' since back in 2018-2019. Take the under (8*). |
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11-10-21 | Kent State +3 v. Central Michigan | 30-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Central Michigan at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We haven't been involved with a side in any Kent State game since back in late September when we faded the Golden Flashes in a road game against Maryland. The Terps rolled to a three-touchdown win on that day. That wrapped up a tough two-game trip that saw the Flashes face Iowa as well. Since taking their lumps in those two blowout losses, we've seen the Flashes take off, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in MAC play. I look for them to improve on those records here. Central Michigan is in an ideal fade spot coming off a big upset win on the road against Northern Illinois last week. The Chippewas were buoyed by a pair of punt return touchdowns from do-it-all WR Khalil Pimpleton after falling behind by two touchdowns early on. I'm more confident in Kent State's ability to keep its foot on the gas should it build a lead in this one. It's hard not to like what head coach Sean Lewis has done with the Flashes since taking over three years ago. Since going 2-10 in his first season, Kent State has now gone 15-11 SU over its last 26 games, including a win in the Frisco Bowl in 2019 (no Bowl eligibility last year as Kent State played only four games due to Covid). With a win here the Flashes can become Bowl eligible once again. Note that Kent State is as healthy as any team in the country right now and I'm confident we'll see it step up in this big conference road tilt on Wednesday, noting that home field advantage has meant little in this series going way back over the years with the road team winning five of the last seven meetings. Take Kent State (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Nets v. Magic OVER 209.5 | Top | 123-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Ordinarily I might consider this to be a potential flat spot for the Nets as they play in a three-in-four situation on the road against the lowly Magic. However, here Brooklyn checks in off an ugly blowout loss in Chicago - a game in which it scored only 95 points and shot worse than 40% from the field. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot offensively after the Nets scored 122, 129 and 113 points in three meetings with Orlando last season. The Magic have been marauding as a good defensive team lately, holding five straight opponents to 44.4% shooting or worse, while giving up more than 102 points only once over that stretch. I don't believe that run of success is sustainable, however. Keep in mind, in their first six games this season, the Magic allowed four opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three of those teams to score 120+ points. Orlando's last 46 games as a home underdog have totaled an average of 216.5 total points. The fact that the Magic have seen each of their last four games stay 'under' the total while the Nets have posted a 2-9 o/u mark this season is what is keeping this total in a very reasonable range. Note that last year's three matchups between these teams each saw closing totals of 225.5 points or higher and all three contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Buffalo +15.5 v. Michigan | Top | 76-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Michigan at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. Expectations are sky-high once again in Ann Arbor this season and the Wolverines are certainly a legitimate national title contender. With that being said, I do think an experienced, ultra-talented Buffalo squad is capable of giving them a run here in their season-opener on Wednesday. The Bulls could turn out to be 'best in class' in the MAC this season although Ohio may have something to say about that. This is an excellent measuring stick game right out of the gate and I expect the Bulls to relish the opportunity. Four starters return to Buffalo and Jim Whitesell's group should once again push the pace at every opportunity, perhaps catching the Wolverines a little off guard here in the first game of the season. Keep in mind, for as dominant as Michigan was last season, it opened the campaign by winning home games against Bowling Green and Oakland by just 14 and 10-point margins, respectively. In time, the Wolverines should once again evolve into an elite rim and perimeter defending team but Buffalo is a tough opening draw before it has a chance to settle in, especially with plenty of new faces in the lineup. While Buffalo is known for its up-tempo, explosive offense, it can play some defense as well. In fact, the Bulls were the best defensive squad in the MAC last year. Last season's MAC Defensive Player of the Year, Josh Mballa is back in the fold to anchor the Bulls defensive sets. While a 1-0 start should be well within reach for the Wolverines, this should be a test. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Golden Knights -135 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Golden Knights are coming off an inexplicable 5-2 loss to the lowly Red Wings in Detroit on Sunday and I think that has a lot of bettors a little spooked to back them as they return home to host the expansion Kraken on Tuesday. We won't shy away, however. You could argue that the Knights essentially 'punted' that game in Detroit, starting backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit in what was a second of back-to-back and three-in-four situation. Prior to that contest Vegas had won consecutive games in Ottawa and Montreal, scoring 10 goals in the process. Despite Sunday's loss, I don't think the Knights will be returning home hanging their heads having won five of their last seven overall. Like most expansion teams, the Kraken have struggled to win games or even stay competitive on the road. They check in 1-6 on the road this season, outscored by 1.7 goals on average. Here, we'll note that the Knights have gone 15-4 when coming off a road loss by three goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. They also check in allowing just 2.1 goals on average the last 22 times they've come off a game in which they gave up 5+ goals. While they're still missing a number of key players due to injury, that's certainly been factored into this price. Take Vegas (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've already seen two matchups between these two teams this season with both of those games staying 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Keep in mind, in both of those previous meetings the winning team scored more than 110 points. Last season's three meetings totaled 233, 249 and 225 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 19-7 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last 2+ seasons and here they're coming off four straight 'unders'. That situation has produced an average total of 232.4 points. Better still, the 'over' is 33-17 with Portland playing on the road off a win over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 233.9 points in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've averaged 117.5 points when playing at home with the total set at 220 points or higher over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of 225.5 points. Keeping in mind we saw a closing total of 230.5 points the first time these two teams met this season and the fact that we have regression to the mean factors at play when it comes to the Blazers offense and defense (they're coming off their lowest-scoring game of the season) and the Clippers defense (they held struggling Charlotte to 40.6% shooting last time out), I believe Tuesday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Blues v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Blues most recent game - a 4-1 loss in Anaheim on Sunday night. St. Louis jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first minute of that game but never scored again in a lopsided defeat. The Blues know they'll need to be better offensively if they're going to salvage anything from the finale of this four-game road trip in Winnipeg on Tuesday night. As I've noted before, the 'over' is now 21-12 with the Blues coming off an 'under' result going back to last season, producing an average total of 6.7 goals in that spot. While St. Louis is now missing Brayden Schenn and Torey Krug, it recently welcomed back Ryan O'Reilly from Covid protocol. As for the Jets, they were shut out by the Islanders on home ice on Saturday. That sets us up well for a high-scoring affair here, noting that the 'over' has gone 13-5 the last 18 times the Jets have come off a game in which they scored one goal or less, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. You would have to go back three meetings here in Winnipeg to find the last time a game between these two teams stayed 'under' the total. Also note that the last time Connor Hellebuyck didn't start a game in this series, we saw 12 total goals in a wild 8-4 Jets victory. Hellebuyck is questionable to play on Tuesday as he continues to deal with an illness. Even if he can go, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring contest. Take the over (8*). |
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11-09-21 | Akron v. Western Michigan -25.5 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Akron at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way this one sets up for a disappointing Western Michigan squad as it looks to bounce back from a tough home loss against Central Michigan and earn Bowl eligibility in the process. While the season hasn't gone quite as planned for the Broncos, there's no reason to hang their heads here. They quite simply ran into arguably the MAC's best player in Khalil Pimpleton last week as he went off and single-handedly took over the game, scoring three touchdowns including two on punt returns after the Broncos had built an early 14-0 lead. Here, Western Michigan is in a perfect bounce-back spot against a hapless Akron squad that it handled by a 58-13 score, on the road no less, last season. The Zips are coming off a hard-fought six point home loss against Ball State last week. They turned in a near-perfect offensive performance, by their standards anyway, but still couldn't get it done. Keep in mind, they entered the fourth quarter down by 18 points in that contest and it certainly seemed like Ball State got complacent. I don't expect the Broncos to fall into the same trap here as they'll be looking to take out their frustrations on both side of the football and should have little difficulty doing just that. This is a Western Michigan team that is only a couple of games removed from a 64-31 rout of Kent State. It also went on the road and won at Pittsburgh earlier this season. Akron, meanwhile, has a lopsided 21-point loss to an awful Temple team on its resume this season and has given up a whopping 110 points in its last three games despite facing limited offenses in Miami-Ohio, Buffalo and Ball State. Take Western Michigan (10*). |
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11-09-21 | St. Peter's v. VCU UNDER 132.5 | 54-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Peter's and VCU and 6 pm et on Tuesday. St. Peter's returns all five starters from last year's team including defensive standout KC Ndefo and should prove to be a tricky season-opening non-conference opponent for VCU on Tuesday. The Peacocks ranked eighth in the country in defensive rating last season and will hang their hat on their play at the end of the floor again here in 2021-22. That's because their offense remains severely limited, noting they finished T233rd in pace rating and T324th in field goal percentage last season and don't figure to show a big improvement. This is certainly a tough season-opening draw for St. Peter's as well with VCU coming off a season that saw it finish 15th in the country in defensive rating and sixth in steals. While there are major questions in the backcourt, especially after losing Bones Hyland to the NBA and Ace Baldwin to a devastating ruptured achilles in the offseason, the Rams mantra will remain the same and that means playing a high-pressure brand of defense and being physical on offense, waiting for its opportunities to get to the rim rather than relying on outside shooting. The latter can result in draining the shot clock, and I'm confident Ndefo and the Peacocks will make them work for every basket down low. Both of these teams were comfortable playing games in the 110's and 120's last season and I would expect nothing different as they work out the kinks in Tuesday's season-opener. Take the under (10*). |
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11-08-21 | Heat v. Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Miami at 9:10 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they host the Heat on Monday night. Miami will be playing its fourth game in the last seven nights, in three different cities. The Heat needed every bit of their blistering 60.3% shooting performance to take down the Jazz at home on Saturday, ultimately winning that game by three points. It's worth noting that Miami was favored by a virtually identical pointspread to tonight in its last road game against Dallas. In that situation, the Heat were playing on two days' rest and keep in mind, that's the same Mavs squad that the Nuggets beat by 31 points earlier this season. Here, I like the fact that the Heat are in line for some offensive regression following that ridiculous shooting performance on Saturday while the Nuggets are coming off a sleepy effort against the lowly Rockets in which they shot just 40.4% in a matinee affair on Saturday. Michael Porter Jr. is expected to miss this game for Denver but he's been somewhat disappointing this season anyway, topping out at 15 points and that came in the season-opener. Note that the Nuggets are 31-14 ATS the last 45 times they've come off three consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.2 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*). |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers OVER 39 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NFL First Half Total of the Week. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We've taken advantage of some lofty first half totals on a number of occasions on Monday Night Football this season, including last week as we cashed the 'under' in the first half of the Giants-Chiefs matchup. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as I see this as a fine spot for both offenses to get off to strong starts at Heinz Field. Chicago showed some signs of life offensively against San Francisco last week - even if it was in a losing effort. QB Justin Fields looked as comfortable throwing the football as he has all season. On Chicago's first drive of the game Fields was 4-for-4 for 46 yards passing - a drive that ultimately ended with a made field goal. In fact, all three of Chicago's first half drives resulted in points on the board - 13 in all. Pittsburgh's pass rush offers a difficult challenge for Fields and he'll undoubtedly take some sacks and hits but I do think his mobility helps and the Bears receivers should have an advantage against a Steelers secondary that has struggled against the pass. Also note that the Pittsburgh defense has allowed 4.2 yards per rush, opening things up for underrated Bears rookie RB Khalil Herbert. Steelers dinosaur QB Ben Roethlisberger catches a break here as Khalil Mack remains sidelined for the Bears, taking away their best pass-rushing piece. They're also likely to be without another one of their top defenders in S Eddie Jackson. The Bears defense hasn't been stout against the run at the best of times and Steelers rookie RB Najee Harris is evolving into a bigger factor each week. He should go off in this matchup. Like the Steelers, the Bears secondary has generally been soft against opposing wide receivers. My concern with playing the full game 'over' in this one is the potential game script should the Steelers hold a lead in the second half. There's a good chance they elect to salt the game away with their ground attack in that scenario. In general, I don't have a great deal of confidence in the Chicago coaching staff drawing up the right plays in high-pressure situations late. Take the first half over (10*). |
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11-08-21 | Panthers v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Now that the starting goaltenders appear locked in for this game I am going to make a small play on the 'under'. Spencer Knight looks like he'll get the call for the Panthers in goal as Sergei Bobrovsky isn't quite ready to return from a lower body injury. I don't mind Knight being in goal here at all, in fact I like it as he has posted a solid .918 save percentage this season and is by all accounts the Panthers goaltender of the future. As for the Rangers, they'll go back to Igor Shesterkin after he gave up six goals in Calgary on Saturday night. Keep in mind, the last time he allowed five goals or more this season (also against the Flames) he followed up that game with a shutout against the Blue Jackets. The Panthers have other injury concerns as well with Sasha Barkov a game-time decision tonight. His impact on the team offensively is obvious. We'll make this play assuming he'll be in the lineup but if he's sidelined again we'll consider it a bonus. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Panthers playing on the road off a home win in which they scored four goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here. As for the Rangers, the 'under' is 8-1 the last nine times they've played at home after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 5.2 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 12-3 the last 15 times when playing at home after a loss by two goals or more, with an average total of 5.3 goals in that situation. Take the under (5*). |
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11-07-21 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 219.5 | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Sunday. We missed badly with the 'over' in the Rockets matinee affair against the Nuggets in Denver yesterday as Houston turned in a rare strong defensive showing (or perhaps it was just a sleepy game all around) in a narrow one-point loss. The Rockets are still a bad defensive team as far as I'm concerned and they'll undoubtedly have their hands full against the red hot Warriors on Sunday. Note that on eight occasions where they've been listed as a 12.5-point or higher road underdog over the last 2+ seasons, the Rockets have put up an impressive 118.4 points on average, resulting in an average total of 244.8 points in that situation, as is the case here. The 'over' is 14-4 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, leading to an average total of 233.6 points in that spot. The Warriors have held each of their last three opponents to 92 points or less but I do think some regression is in order here. I do think they'll come out with an attacking mentality given the Rockets are in a second of back-to-back and three-in-four spot here and the pace alone should help the Houston offense contribute enough to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Note that Houston did put up 109 points in its lone trip to San Francisco last season with that game totaling 234 points. Take the over (8*). |
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11-07-21 | Blues v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Anaheim at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. After an inexplicable seven-game 'over' streak we've seen each of the Ducks last two games stay 'under' the total and I anticipate more of the same as they host the Blues on Sunday night. The Blues are coming off an 'over' result last time out against the Sharks (we won with the 'over' in that game) and that's notable as the 'under' has gone 43-27 when they follow up such a result over the last 2+ seasons. The 'under' is also 37-22 with St. Louis coming off a game in which seven or more total goals were scored over the same stretch, as is the case here. As for the Ducks, the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times they've played at home after a win by two goals or more, as is the case here following Friday's 3-1 win over Arizona. While the Blues are expected to get Ryan O'Reilly back in the lineup on Sunday, they're now without Brayden Schenn and Torey Krug. Meanwhile, the Ducks are dealing with possible absences of Jakob Silfverberg and Trevor Zegras. Goaltender John Gibson could miss as well but that's not overly concerning as backup Anthony Stolarz has performed well, posting a .912 save percentage in four games. Take the under (8*). |
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11-07-21 | Islanders v. Wild -115 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over New York at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter Sunday's game riding two-game winning streaks but I believe the Wild are better-positioned to keep their streak going on home ice. New York remains in the midst of a staggering 13-game season-opening road trip and will be playing its third game in four nights on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the Isles are a miserable 1-10 the last 11 times they've played on the road off consecutive road wins by two goals or more, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. In fact, the Isles are just 11-28 the last 39 times they've played on the road off consecutive road wins of any margin. As for the Wild, they're coming off a come-from-behind shootout win in Pittsburgh last night. They've gone a perfect 8-0 the last eight times they've come off consecutive games in which they gave up four goals or more, averaging 3.6 goals and outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Take Minnesota (9*). |
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11-07-21 | Chargers -1 v. Eagles | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles have faced a pretty brutal schedule this season when you really look at it. Here, they'll be playing their first home game since back on October 14th. They've yet to enjoy consecutive home games this season and won't until December. Now they welcome a Chargers squad that has faced quite the opposite type of schedule - this will be only their second time traveling in the last five weeks and only their second game in the last three weeks thanks to a bye two weeks ago. It's obviously a big game for both teams but the Chargers reek a little more of desperation after suffering consecutive losses. I like their chances of bouncing back here. QB Justin Herbert has been struggling but now faces an Eagles defense that has allowed the last three teams it has faced to complete 90-of-110 passes for 791 yards. We actually won with Philadelphia last week but that was against the hapless Lions. I'm still not high on Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, other than as a fantasy standout. While the Chargers have certainly been awful against the run this season I actually think they can step up in that regard here, especially with the Eagles backfield muddy in the absence of Miles Sanders. Note that the Chargers are 30-16 ATS the last 46 times they've come off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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11-07-21 | Vikings v. Ravens OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 39 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Ravens most recent game two weeks ago at home against the Bengals. That turned out to be a 'rocking chair' variety winner as the Bengals exploded on an overrated Ravens defense. Here, I look for the Ravens offense to bounce back in a big way as they come off their bye week and face an undermanned Vikings defense that is without Danielle Hunter and Patrick Peterson among others. While I'm not sure the majority of casual bettors have taken notice, the Ravens offense is no longer the run-first unit we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. With no true bell-cow in the backfield, they've began to shift to a more pass-friendly offense and that should continue to pay dividends for 'over' backers moving forward. This is a favorable spot for Ravens WR Hollywood Brown to go off. Mark Andrews has been the focal point of the Baltimore passing game recently but he's at risk of getting locked up by the Vikes solid linebacking corps in this one. Look for the Ravens receiving corps to shine here. On the flip side, the Vikes offense didn't look good against the Cowboys last Sunday night. Perhaps Minnesota got caught looking past a Dak-less Cowboys squad. I simply chalk it up to inconsistency, something we've come to expect from Vikes QB Kirk Cousins. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot for Cousins and the loaded Minnesota offense. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen should feast against a Ravens defense that has given up the fourth-most pass completions of 20 yards or more this season. Vikes RB Dalvin Cook is in a smash spot as well as the Ravens defensive front has been repeatedly shredded this season, giving up nine touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-21 | Broncos v. Cowboys OVER 48.5 | 30-16 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think a lot of bettors are quick to dismiss the Broncos offense and skeptical of their ability to contribute enough points to help this one 'over' the lofty total. I have no such concerns. Denver will head into this game inside the friendly confines of Jerry World knowing that it will need to put up plenty of points to potentially keep pace with the high-octane Cowboys, especially with QB Dak Prescott likely to be back on the field. With WR Jerry Jeudy back in the mix, the Broncos do have some weapons to work with on offense and while the Cowboys secondary boasts plenty of flash and ball-hawking ability, it has also given up plenty of yardage (and points). I don't think we'll see the Broncos bang their heads against the wall all afternoon trying to run the football. Instead look for QB Teddy Bridgewater to take some shots downfield and potentially find some success against a beatable Cowboys pass defense. Meanwhile, the Dallas offense should feast against a severely depleted Broncos defense that was already without Bradley Chubb but now loses defensive anchor Von Miller (traded to the Rams) and key pass defender Bryce Callahan (knee injury). Trying to defend the likes of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb is going to be an absolute nightmare for the Broncos defense here and that's before we even mention Dallas' incredible ground attack that ranks among the best in the league. With a cluster of injuries in their linebacking corps, there's little reason to have confidence in the Broncos run defense against the two-headed monster of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard on Sunday. Take the over (9*). |
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11-07-21 | Raiders -3 v. Giants | 16-23 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the evolution of the Raiders this season, even under a seemingly constant swirl of distractions. Here, off their bye week, I think we see Las Vegas come out and smash a Giants squad playing on a short week following Monday's near-miss in Kansas City. Give the Giants credit for going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs on the road on Monday. However, they come out of that game perhaps even more injury-depleted than they went in and now have to limp home to face a Raiders squad that is rested and ready off its bye week. Las Vegas has actually taken flight offensively since ridding itself of head coach Jon Gruden. QB Derek Carr looks extremely comfortable running Greg Olson's offense and now has another week of practice under his belt following the bye. I expect to see even more wrinkles in the Raiders offense here and I'm not convinced the Giants middling defense will have any answers. Missing a number of key cogs, the G-Men have struggled to defend the pass and the run. They're allowing a whopping 4.5 yards per rush and just shy of 150 rush yards per game this season. That should serve to open things up for the Raiders emerging play-action-based offense here. I'm higher on Giants QB Daniel Jones than some but New York is quite simply running out of bodies at the wide receiver position and RB Saquon Barkley is still likely a couple of weeks away from returning to the field. The Raiders offense thrived in a 31-28 last minute win over the Jets here at MetLife Stadium last season. Look for them to come up big in the Big Apple again, albeit against a different opponent this time around. Take Las Vegas (9*). |
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11-06-21 | 76ers v. Bulls -3.5 | 114-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Bulls have already suffered a couple of tough losses against division opponents this season, including a five-point loss against the same 76ers that they'll face on Saturday night last time out. Philadelphia enters this game off five straight victories, somewhat surprisingly as it continues to play on without some key cogs including Tobias Harris who remains in Covid protocol. Here, we'll note that the 76ers are just 3-12 ATS the last 15 times they've come off consecutive ATS victories as a favorite, as is the case here. The Bulls meanwhile are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a close loss by six points or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.1 points in that situation. Philadelphia has now taken eight straight meetings in this series but that included matchups against some bad Bulls teams. Look for an improved Chicago team to bounce back and deliver a win and cover here. Take Chicago (8*). |
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11-06-21 | Houston v. South Florida OVER 52 | Top | 54-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. South Florida is coming off a lower-scoring result than expected against East Carolina in a primetime weeknight game last week. In fact, the Bulls are coming off back-to-back 'under' results. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair here, however, as they return home to host a rolling Houston squad on Saturday night. First, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with South Florida coming off a road loss against a conference opponent over the last 2+ seasons with that situation resulting in an average total of 72.0 points. Also note that the last seven times USF has come off an ATS loss it has seen its next contest average a whopping 67.0 points. If the Bulls are going to keep this game even remotely competitive, they're going to need to step up their game offensively. The good news is they are expected to have dual-threat QB Timothy McClain back on the field. Houston has padded its defensive stats against the likes of Rice and FCS squad Grambling. There was also a weeknight affair that completely got away from Tulsa, which has been highly-inconsistent offensively. Here, I think we see the Cougars once again go off offensively, having scored 44, 45 and 40 points in their three previous road games this season. FCS squad Florida A&M and Temple (one of the worst FBS teams in the country in my opinion) are the only two opponents that USF has held to under 29 points this season. Note that Houston has scored at least 56 points in each of the last two meetings in this series. The last two matchups have totaled at least 77 points. This total is too low with last week's poor showing from the Bulls in front of a national audience factoring heavily into the number. Take the over (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Avalanche -170 v. Blue Jackets | 2-4 | Loss | -170 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Avs dropped a tough one to the Blue Jackets in overtime last time out. I don't think they would have lost that game were it not for backup goaltender Jonas Johansson being between the pipes. Here, Colorado is expected to get some reinforcements with Mikko Rantanen and Andrei Burakovsky likely to return to the lineup. Note that the Blue Jackets have averaged just 2.0 goals when coming off a road win going back to last season. They also average just 2.2 goals and have been outscored by 0.5 goals on average when coming off consecutive wins over the same stretch. They won back-to-back games only once previously this season and followed that up with a 4-1 loss against the lowly Red Wings in Detroit. Take Colorado (5*). |
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11-06-21 | Rockets v. Nuggets OVER 219 | 94-95 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Denver at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets have now seen the 'under' cash in four straight and seven of their eight games so far this season. I believe Houston is an ideal opponent to break that streak on Saturday afternoon in Denver. Note that the Nuggets absolutely throttled the Rockets defense in three meetings last year, putting up 124, 128 and 129 points. The two games played here in Denver between these two teams totaled 235 and 245 points. The Rockets come into this game having dropped the first three games on their current road trip. Houston isn't going to play much defense but it can score, as evidenced by the fact that it enters this contest having put up 117 and 111 points in its last two games. The Rockets should continue to push the pace here as they try to break out of their slide, keeping in mind they did manage to score 111 and 116 points in two matchups here in Denver last season. The same trend we've supported in the Rockets last two games is in play again here, noting that the 'over' is 14-3 with Houston playing on the road off a road loss over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 236.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Toronto v. Ottawa +10.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Year. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up for the RedBlacks who understandably find themselves as double-digit underdogs at home against the Argos on Saturday. When these two teams last met on October 6th in Toronto the Argos rolled to a 35-16 victory. Keep in mind, 21 of Toronto's points came on special teams or defensive touchdowns. Ottawa actually led that contest at halftime. The RedBlacks did a pretty good job of keeping the Argos offense in check in that game and I'm confident they can do so again here. Simply put, I haven't been high on the Argos offense since they dealt QB Nick Arbuckle to move forward with McLeod Bethel-Thompson. Note that Bethel-Thompson has thrown for just six touchdowns compared to seven interceptions this season. Now the Argos are dealing with some key injuries as well, including one to RB D.J. Foster. We'll make this play on the assumption that he's good to go but it's worth noting nonetheless. The RedBlacks are starting to get healthier. While QB Caleb Evans has done as much as he can running the offense, getting back Dominique Davis wouldn't hurt and he's got some limited work in at practice this week and is eligible to come off the injured list for Saturday's game. WR and KR DeVonte Dedmon is expected to return after a full week of practice as well. Defensively, DL and key pass rusher Praise Martin-Oguike has returned to practice this week as well. It remains to be seen whether he can play this week but if he can that's an added bonus as well. Note that there are a couple of trends supporting Ottawa here as well. CFL home teams that have lost five or six of their last seven games ATS, and have a losing record are on a long-term 82-45 ATS run. Better still, home teams off 5+ consecutive losses in Weeks 10 through 15 are on a long-term 33-10 ATS run. Too many points here as the RedBlacks show some pride and hand Toronto its third straight ATS loss. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Tulane v. Central Florida -12.5 | 10-14 | Loss | -113 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Tulane at 4 pm et on Saturday. Tulane got up for last Saturday's nationally-televised home game against then second-ranked Cincinnati, giving the Bearcats all they could handle in an eventual 31-12 loss. Now things get tougher as the reeling Green Wave, having not won a game since Week 2 against FCS squad Morgan State, hit the road to face a surging Central Florida team. The Golden Knights had their doors blown off by aforementioned Cincinnati on the road back on October 16th. Since then, they've bounced back with blowout wins of their own over Memphis and Temple, outscoring those two opponents by a combined 73-14 margin. I like them to keep rolling here as they look to assure themselves of Bowl eligibility with a win. Lost in the relatively competitive nature of last week's setback against Cincinnati was the fact that Tulane completed only nine passes. The Green Wave have now completed a grand total of 20 passes over their last two games. That's just not going to cut it against a Golden Knights squad that is brimming with confidence right now. Take Central Florida (8*). |
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11-06-21 | North Texas -4.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on North Texas minus the points over Southern Miss at 3 pm et on Saturday. Southern Miss has scored fewer than 20 points in all seven games against FBS opposition this season (it defeated Grambling 37-0 in its other game). Needless to say the Golden Eagles are simply playing out the string at this point. Meanwhile, North Texas kept its slim hopes of reaching a Bowl game alive with an 'upset' road win over Rice last week. Now it has an excellent opportunity to build some positive momentum, and earn an ounce of revenge after dropping its last two meetings with Southern Miss. The Mean Green Eagles have faced a brutal schedule this season. After opening with a cupcake matchup against FCS squad Northwestern State they went on to play SMU, UAB, Louisiana Tech, Missouri, Marshall, Liberty and Rice. Yes, there were a couple of soft opponents in that bunch but the majority were tough. Credit UNT for going 5-3 ATS through its first eight games, including a 4-1 ATS mark over its last four contests. I mentioned just how punchless Southern Miss has been offensively this season. North Texas is a different story as it has scored at least 21 points in each of its last four games. The Golden Eagles haven't come particularly close to even sniffing out an ATS cover since losing by 12 points (in a game they scored only nine points) as an 11-point underdog against Troy back on September 18th. Take North Texas (10*). |
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11-06-21 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State -3.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas State minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 3 pm et on Saturday. Texas State found itself in the wrong place at the wrong time last week as it was blown out 45-0 on the road against Louisiana-Lafayette. Here, the Bobcats have a prime opportunity to 'get right' at home against a Louisiana-Monroe squad that is 'punching above its weight class' at 4-4 on the season. The Warhawks have stunningly won a pair of games outright as 20+ point underdogs this season. I think the bloom is off the rose now, however, following last week's 31-point drubbing at the hands of Appalachian State. Now they have to stay on the road for a second straight week to face a Texas State squad that believe it or not still has an outside shot at reaching Bowl eligibility (if it wins out). Of course, winning out is highly-unlikely with a date at Coastal Carolina still on the schedule. That's in a couple of weeks though. Here, I look for the Bobcats to take their frustrations out on the Warhawks after stepping up in class and dropping back-to-back double-digit losses against Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette. Keep in mind, Texas State has taken Baylor down to the wire while also defeating South Alabama here at home this season. Prior to their last two games, the Bobcats had scored 20+ points in each of their last six games. They've at least played with a little more consistency than Louisiana-Monroe, which has been on a wild, roller-coaster ride all season. Note that Texas State took last year's meeting between these two teams by 21 points, on the road no less. They say revenge is a dish best served at home. I don't see the Warhawks getting that revenge in hostile territory on Saturday. Take Texas State (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Lightning v. Senators +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. The Senators are coming off one of their worst performances of the season in a 5-1 loss to the Golden Knights on Thursday. It shouldn't be difficult for them to get back up for this one, however, as they host the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning on Saturday afternoon. While the two teams didn't meet last season due to Covid, the Sens have actually held their own against the mighty Bolts in recent years, going 9-3 in the last 12 meetings when factoring in the +1.5 goal. Here, we'll note that the Sens are 5-1 in their last six home games after giving up five goals or more in their previous contest and a perfect 4-0 the last four times they've played at home off a loss by three goals or more. The Lightning are coming off an overtime loss in Toronto that also saw them lose key defenseman Mikhail Sergachev to a suspension due to a hit to the head of Mitch Marner. Take Ottawa +1.5 goals (6*). |
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11-06-21 | Liberty v. Ole Miss -8 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday. This line has moved considerably over the course of the week, leaving Ole Miss in playable range as we approach kickoff on Saturday. Give Liberty credit. It has played the schedule in front of it and has done it well, winning seven of nine games to date. But let's also keep things in perspective. The Flames seven wins this season include victories against FCS squad Campbell and three of the weakest teams in FBS in Old Dominion, Louisiana-Monroe and UMass, with two of those contests coming at home. Ole Miss, meanwhile, opened the season with a tough non-conference matchup against Louisville (it won 43-24) and after a couple of non-conference cupcakes, the Rebels have faced a brutal SEC schedule that included games against Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn. It enters this game off a tough but not unexpected 31-20 road loss against Auburn last week. To me, this looks like an ideal 'get right' spot for Ole Miss before it gets back to the SEC gauntlet with a home date with Texas A&M next week. The fact that the Flames are a seven-win team and scored a whopping 62 points in last week's victory should help keep the Rebels focus where it needs to be this week and I expect them to win this one going away. Take Ole Miss (9*). |
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11-05-21 | Devils v. Kings OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Kings 'over' in their most recent game against the Blues - a 3-2 shootout victory on Wednesday night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. New Jersey is coming off a low-scoring game of its own - ending a stretch of three straight games that totaled at least six goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 10-3 the last 13 times the Devils have come off an 'under' result, leading to an average total of 6.3 goals in that situation. Better still, the 'over' is 12-3 with the Devils coming off a game that totaled four goals or less going back to last season, producing a total of 6.7 goals on average in that spot. This is a situation where the Devils themselves have fared well offensively, noting that they average an impressive 3.9 goals when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last 2+ seasons. As for the Kings, they've held three straight opponents to exactly two goals. I don't believe that level of defensive success is sustainable, especially with Drew Doughty sidelined and a relatively weak goaltending tandem of Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen. Speaking of goaltenders, the Devils have leaned on three different ones already this season as they try to tread water until MacKenzie Blackwood can return. While neither of these teams are known for their offensive prowess, I'm expecting plenty of goals on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-21 | Pacers v. Blazers OVER 223.5 | 106-110 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers haven't been involved in as many high-scoring track meets as they were last season, at least early on here in 2021-22. With that being said, I believe the totals have been over-adjusted as a result. With the 'under' having cashed in three of Indiana's last four games, I believe we're being given a very reasonable number to work with here. The Pacers enter this contest on their first two-game winning streak of the season. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 12-2 the last 14 times they've come off consecutive victories, resulting in an average total of 241.5 points. As for the Blazers, they're reeling right now off three straight losses. All three of those losses came on the road though. Back at home, I expect them to go back to their sharp-shooting ways. Note that the 'over' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Blazers have come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 236.0 points in that spot. The last time we saw these two teams match up they combined to score a whopping 245 points last April. Take the over (8*). |
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11-05-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Ducks | 1-3 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Coyotes remain winless on the season but after holding each of their last three opponents to three goals or less, and facing a Ducks squad that's 'fat and happy' off consecutive wins by at least two goals, I believe Arizona is well-positioned to at the very least take this one down to the wire on Friday night. Keep in mind, the Coyotes have won three straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Ducks. To find the last time Anaheim defeated Arizona by more than a single goal you would have to go back nine meetings, all the way to January 2020. Here, we'll note that the Ducks are 0-13 when coming off two wins in their last three games going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 2.6 goals in that spot. In fact, they're a miserable 13-36 in their last 49 games when coming off a win, as is the case here, outscored by 1.0 goal on average in that situation. The last six times Anaheim has played at home off a win by three goals or more it has been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals, averaging just 1.5 goals itself in that spot. The Coyotes have been on the road for a while - this game will wrap up a six-game road trip in which they haven't secured a single point. After a couple of much-needed days off, I think we see the Coyotes come up with their best effort of the season on Friday night. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (5*). |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the the 'over' between Virginia Tech and Boston College at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been involved in some low-scoring games recently, I believe the betting markets have over-adjusted when it comes to this total. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech is just one game removed from a wild game against Syracuse that totaled 77 points. Speaking of Syracuse, Boston College tangled with the Orange last week, losing an ugly 21-6 decision at the Carrier Dome. That extremely low final score was somewhat misleading, however. In that game, Boston College marched down the field to just outside the Orange red zone on its first drive of the game but was stopped on fourth down. The very next drive Syracuse took the ball all the way to the Boston College three-yard line before coughing up a fumble. Two of the next three drives after that would see the Orange drive into BC territory before being stopped on fourth down and then the Eagles stalling at the Syracuse 14-yard line before settling for a field goal. You get the picture. Boston College has actually only had the benefit of playing two home games to date this season. It recorded a thrilling 41-34 overtime win over Missouri in one of them before being held in check by a good N.C. State team in a 33-7 loss in mid-October. Virginia Tech is coming off a game against Georgia Tech that reached 43 total points despite a whopping 83 rush attempts in the game. The Hokies have been alternating high and low-scoring games over the last month. They haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with three in a row and even during that stretch, two of those three games went 'over' the number we're dealing with tonight. You would have to go back four meetings to 2017 to find the last time these two teams played a game that totaled less than 52 points. We've seen closing totals of 57, 56.5 and 61.5 in the last three meetings and the last time the Hokies and Eagles matched up in Chestnut Hill they combined to score 63 points two years ago. Again, while both of these offenses have been prone to scoring droughts, I believe this total has been set too low. With both teams desperate for a victory to keep Bowl hopes alive, I expect them to come out with an attacking mentality on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-21 | Spurs v. Magic OVER 213 | 102-89 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Magic are coming off an awful showing against the Celtics two nights ago as they fell by a score of 92-79 in an extremely low-scoring affair. I look for a different story to unfold as they welcome the Spurs to Amway Arena on Friday night. Keep in mind, prior to that poor performance, the Magic had scored 111, 109, 103 and 115 points in their previous four games. The 'over' is still 6-3 in their nine games to date this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 24-10 with the Magic revenging a same-season loss against an opponent going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 221.8 points. Better still, the 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times Orlando has been at home revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent (the Spurs beat the Magic 123-97 in San Antonio on October 20th), producing an average total of 228.5 points in that spot. The Spurs check in having scored 118 and 108 points in their last two games, shooting 52.8% and 48.9% from the field in those two contests. The 'over' is 23-11 in their last 34 games against Eastern Conference foes, with an average total of 227.5 points scored. Take the over (8*). |
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11-05-21 | Grizzlies v. Wizards OVER 220.5 | 87-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Memphis is coming off consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' is 4-1 in its last five contests. I look for that trend to reverse on Friday, however, as the Grizzlies head to Washington to face the Wizards. Washington is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair of its own against Toronto two nights ago. Note that prior to that, the Wiz had seen their last three games go 'over' the total with those contests reaching 233, 227 and 229 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Grizzlies on the road coming off three wins in their last four games going back to last season, good for an average total of 240.7 points. When the Grizz play on the road off consecutive wins, they're on a 13-2 'over' streak, with that situation producing an average total of 238.9 points. As for the Wizards, they've seen an average total of 238.8 points scored the last 24 times they've played at home following an 'under' result. Expect a return to 'normal' for Washington here. Take the over (8*). |
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11-05-21 | Spurs -3.5 v. Magic | 102-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. In this battle of two-win teams, I simply feel that the Spurs are the superior team and just as they did in a 26-point rout in San Antonio back on October 20th, I look for them to prove it on the floor on Friday night. Note that the Magic are a pitiful 14-30 ATS in their last 44 games as a home underdog, outscored by an average margin of 11.9 points in that situation. Worse still, Orlando is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here following that 20+ point loss in San Antonio earlier this season. Oddly enough, the Magic have been outscored by an identical 11.9-point margin on average in that situation. The Spurs are coming of consecutive losses including a narrow one-point setback against the Mavericks last time out. Note that they own a stellar 26-14 ATS mark in their last 40 road games, including a 120-97 victory as a seven-point favorite here in Orlando last April. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-05-21 | Nets v. Pistons +10.5 | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Pistons last night as they failed to show up in the second half in an 11-point loss to the 76ers. Call me crazy but the fact that they actually 'only' lost by 11 points despite scoring just 32 second half points was encouraging. Here, I simply feel they're catching way too many points as they host a 'fat and happy' Nets squad coming off three consecutive victories with the last two coming in blowout fashion. Interestingly, the Pistons are 16-5 ATS when coming off three consecutive losses going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.3 points in that spot. While they're just 22-37 ATS the last 59 points they've been revenging a same-season loss against an opponent, that doesn't tell the whole story as they've been outscored by just 6.1 points on average in that situation - obviously a considerably shorter number than the pointspread we're working with here tonight. In two meetings between these two teams in Detroit last season, the Pistons won 122-111 and lost 113-111. Brooklyn has yet to win three straight games ATS this season and I'm willing to bet they fail to accomplish that feat here. Take Detroit (7*). |
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11-04-21 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 217.5 | 107-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. PLEASE NOTE: Downgrading this to a 5* play with the news that Lebron James will be OUT tonight. We won with the 'over' in the Lakers most recent game - a narrow 119-117 victory over the Rockets two nights ago. The fact that the Thunder are coming off a game that totaled only 193 points against the Clippers while the Lakers are just one game removed from a contest that totaled only 180 points is keeping this total lower than it probably should be. I do think this total would make sense if we were talking about last season's Lakers team. The 2021-22 edition is much stronger offensively, however, while still playing an inconsistent brand of defensive basketball. The Thunder are by no means an offensive juggernaut. In fact, they're one of the worst offensive teams in the league by most metrics. With that being said, they did put up 123 points in a win over the Lakers last week and I'm confident we'll see them push the pace again here after being held to 82 and 94 points in consecutive losses to open this three-game road trip. Note that the last time we saw them shoot worse than 40% in consecutive games they bounced back with a 47.6% shooting effort, scoring 103 points against the 76ers. Having scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games and with revenge on their minds given that aforementioned loss against the Thunder, I fully expect to see the Lakers go off offensively in this one. They've put up 128, 119, 114 and 115 points in four meetings with the Thunder going back to last season. I will point out, however, that they've allowed 113.3 points on average when coming off consecutive home wins going back to last season with that spot producing an average total of 224.2 points. This total proves to be too low on Thursday. Take the over (5*). |
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11-04-21 | Blues v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'over' in the Blues 3-2 shootout loss in Los Angeles last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday as they head to San Jose to take on the undermanned Sharks. Note that the 'over' has gone 44-27 with the Blues coming off an 'under' result over the L2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. It's also worth mentioning that the Blues have allowed 3.4 goals on average when coming off a one-goal loss over the same stretch (35-game sample size), good for an average total of 6.0 goals in that spot. As for the Sharks, they've averaged 3.5 goals with an average total of 6.3 goals when playing at home off a home game where both teams scored three or more goals, as is the case here following Tuesday's 5-3 win over the Sabres. This series produced some wild, high-scoring affairs last season with four of eight meetings totaling at least seven goals and one of those contests reaching a whopping 13 goals right here in San Jose. Take the over (7*). |
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11-04-21 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 218 | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. We've yet to see scoring really pick up in the NBA this season but I do think it's only a matter of time before we see a shift away from the lower-scoring contests. In this spot, I simply feel the total has been set too low. The Rockets are by no means a quality defensive team. They're going to have their hands full with a surging Suns squad on Thursday night. We have seen Houston stay competitve at times this season thanks to its offense. That could very well be the case again on Thursday. Note that the 'over' is 13-3 the last 16 times the Rockets have played on the road off a road loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points. On the flip side, the Suns have seen the 'over' cash at a 23-9 clip the last 32 times they've come off a double-digit win, producing an average total of 227 points in that spot. The 'over' is also a profitable 39-22 after the Suns give up 105 points or less in a game over the last 2+ seasons, good for an average total of 224.4 points in that situation. The last time these two teams met in the desert they combined to put up 246 points last April. We don't need anything close to that level of track meet to cash this ticket. Take the over (7*). |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 56 m | Show |
NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Colts overtime loss to the Titans on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they stay home to host the upstart Jets on a short week on Thursday night. Mike White-mania has taken hold in New York after the QB led the Jets to a stunning 34-31 win over the Bengals on Sunday. Let's not get too carried away though. The Jets caught the Bengals in an obvious letdown spot off a monster blowout win over the rival Ravens the previous week. Cincinnati's defense might have got caught reading a little too much of their own press leading into that one and certainly appeared to overlook White's ability to move the Jets offense and put points on the board. Don't expect the Colts to fall into the same trap here. Indianapolis has to feel that the AFC South is still up for grabs, especially with the new that Titans RB Derrick Henry will miss 6-10 weeks with a foot injury. With that being said, Frank Reich probably doesn't want his QB Carson Wentz throwing the football 50+ times again like he did on Sunday against the Titans. We saw that the Jets defense can be opportunistic against the Bengals. Credit New York for limiting Cincinnati to just north of 300 total yards in that game. The majority of the Bengals offense in that game came thanks to turnovers from the Jets offense. Knowing that, I'm confident predicting a more conservative gameplan from Robert Saleh's Jets offense here. The Colts come in having scored 30+ points in three straight games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'under' is a long-term winner at 60-40 with the Colts playing at home off a loss, resulting in an average total of just 42.6 points. The 'under' is also 48-30 with the Jets playing on the road after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here, good for an average total of just 37.6 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. This is an ideal spot to fade the 'fat and happy' 76ers as they come off four straight wins, all at home. Philadelphia has had to deal with some key absences lately with Tobias Harris missing time due to Covid protocols and Joel Embiid dealing with a nagging knee injury. Of course, there's no guarantee Embiid plays tonight in a back-to-back spot but we'll make this play on the assumption he is able to go. The Pistons have lost back-to-back games in blowout fashion. Those came in tough spots at Brooklyn and at home against the Bucks. Here, they're home and waiting for the Sixers, noting the last time these two teams squared off at Little Caesar's Arena last January it was no contest as Detroit rolled to a 119-104 victory as a 4.5-point underdog. Here, we're getting an even more favorable number. Look for the Pistons to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Detroit (10*). |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 209 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Off yet another relatively low-scoring game last night the 76ers have now seen each of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for that streak to come to an end in Motown on Thursday. Despite that 'under' streak, the 76ers offense has performed well, scoring at least 109 points in six of eight games to date this season. Tonight's opponent, Detroit, is certainly not defensive powerhouse, having allowed four of its last five opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. In fact, over their last two games, the Pistons have allowed the Nets and Bucks to shoot a blazing 89-for-156 (57.1%). Given their defense looks broken, the Pistons will need to step up offensively in order to stay competitive in this one and I'm confident they can do just that, noting that arguably a weaker offensive squad managed to put up 110 and 119 points in two home meetings with the 76ers last season. Having shot worse than 41% from the field in six of seven games so far this season, it's only a matter of time before some more of Detroit's shots start falling. The Pistons might be catching the 76ers in the right place at the right time as Philadelphia is 'fat and happy' off four straight victories, all coming at home, and has allowed five of its last seven opponents to shoot 46.3% or better from the field. Keep an eye on the status of Joel Embiid for the Sixers as he's been known to rest on the back half of back-to-backs, allowing recovery time for an ailing knee. If he doesn't go that should only serve to give us an even better number to work with. Take the over (8*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-20-21 | 76ers +6 v. Blazers | 111-118 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
11-20-21 | Oklahoma State -10 v. Texas Tech | Top | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
11-20-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Liberty OVER 53 | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
11-20-21 | Georgia Tech +18 v. Notre Dame | 0-55 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
11-20-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky -10 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
11-19-21 | San Diego State v. UNLV +11 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
11-19-21 | Avalanche v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -191 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
11-19-21 | Jets +100 v. Canucks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
11-19-21 | Magic v. Nets OVER 209.5 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
11-19-21 | Ottawa +14 v. Montreal | Top | 19-18 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
11-18-21 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 219 | Top | 90-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
11-18-21 | Stars v. Wild -126 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
11-18-21 | Lightning -128 v. Flyers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
11-18-21 | UAB -2.5 v. South Carolina | 63-66 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
11-17-21 | Capitals -105 v. Kings | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
11-17-21 | Blackhawks v. Seattle Kraken -145 | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
11-17-21 | UC-Davis +2 v. Pepperdine | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
11-17-21 | Northern Colorado v. Texas -20.5 | 49-62 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
11-17-21 | Tulane v. Florida State -18 | 54-59 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
11-17-21 | Wizards v. Hornets | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
11-17-21 | Northern Illinois -1 v. Buffalo | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
11-16-21 | Red Wings v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
11-16-21 | Tarleton St v. Wichita State -12.5 | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 221 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
11-16-21 | South Alabama +23.5 v. Alabama | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
11-16-21 | Western Michigan -5.5 v. Eastern Michigan | 21-22 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
11-16-21 | Sabres v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
11-15-21 | Southern Utah +11 v. St. Mary's | Top | 51-70 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
11-15-21 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 212 | Top | 129-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
11-15-21 | Red Wings v. Blue Jackets -123 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
11-14-21 | Canucks v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
11-14-21 | Eagles +2.5 v. Broncos | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
11-14-21 | Spurs v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
11-14-21 | Bills -11.5 v. Jets | Top | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
11-14-21 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 54.5 | Top | 3-43 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
11-14-21 | Browns v. Patriots UNDER 45.5 | 7-45 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
11-13-21 | Wolves v. Clippers OVER 220 | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
11-13-21 | Flyers v. Stars -145 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
11-13-21 | Evansville v. Belmont -13.5 | 43-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
11-13-21 | Southern Miss v. UTSA -33 | 17-27 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
11-13-21 | Rutgers v. Indiana -7 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -101 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
11-13-21 | East Carolina v. Memphis OVER 59 | 30-29 | Push | 0 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
11-12-21 | Wyoming v. Boise State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
11-12-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Blackhawks | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
11-12-21 | Blazers -6.5 v. Rockets | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
11-12-21 | Hamilton v. Toronto OVER 44 | Top | 12-31 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
11-12-21 | Capitals -125 v. Blue Jackets | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
11-12-21 | Eastern Washington v. UC-Davis -8 | 76-84 | Push | 0 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
11-11-21 | Heat v. Clippers -3.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
11-11-21 | Cal-Riverside v. Arizona State UNDER 142 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
11-11-21 | North Carolina +7 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 23-30 | Push | 0 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
11-11-21 | Islanders v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
11-10-21 | Wild v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
11-10-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 222.5 | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
11-10-21 | Predators v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 36 m | Show | |
11-10-21 | Kent State +3 v. Central Michigan | 30-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
11-10-21 | Nets v. Magic OVER 209.5 | Top | 123-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
11-10-21 | Buffalo +15.5 v. Michigan | Top | 76-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
11-09-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Golden Knights -135 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
11-09-21 | Blues v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
11-09-21 | Akron v. Western Michigan -25.5 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
11-09-21 | St. Peter's v. VCU UNDER 132.5 | 54-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
11-08-21 | Heat v. Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers OVER 39 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
11-08-21 | Panthers v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
11-07-21 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 219.5 | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
11-07-21 | Blues v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
11-07-21 | Islanders v. Wild -115 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
11-07-21 | Chargers -1 v. Eagles | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
11-07-21 | Vikings v. Ravens OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 39 m | Show |
11-07-21 | Broncos v. Cowboys OVER 48.5 | 30-16 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 25 m | Show | |
11-07-21 | Raiders -3 v. Giants | 16-23 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 12 m | Show | |
11-06-21 | 76ers v. Bulls -3.5 | 114-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
11-06-21 | Houston v. South Florida OVER 52 | Top | 54-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
11-06-21 | Avalanche -170 v. Blue Jackets | 2-4 | Loss | -170 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
11-06-21 | Rockets v. Nuggets OVER 219 | 94-95 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
11-06-21 | Toronto v. Ottawa +10.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show |
11-06-21 | Tulane v. Central Florida -12.5 | 10-14 | Loss | -113 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
11-06-21 | North Texas -4.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
11-06-21 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State -3.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
11-06-21 | Lightning v. Senators +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
11-06-21 | Liberty v. Ole Miss -8 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
11-05-21 | Devils v. Kings OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
11-05-21 | Pacers v. Blazers OVER 223.5 | 106-110 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
11-05-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Ducks | 1-3 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
11-05-21 | Spurs v. Magic OVER 213 | 102-89 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
11-05-21 | Grizzlies v. Wizards OVER 220.5 | 87-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
11-05-21 | Spurs -3.5 v. Magic | 102-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
11-05-21 | Nets v. Pistons +10.5 | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
11-04-21 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 217.5 | 107-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
11-04-21 | Blues v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
11-04-21 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 218 | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 56 m | Show |
11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 209 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |