Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-15-23 | Guardians v. Nationals OVER 9 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Washington at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The 'under' cashed in the opener of this series last night as the Guardians prevailed by a 4-3 score in a well-pitched game from both sides. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as Cleveland sends Zach Plesac to the mound against Chad Kuhl of the Nationals. Plesac has posted rather pedestrian numbers throughout his 4+ year big league career. Things haven't gone well for the right-hander through two outings this year as he has recorded a 5.62 FIP and 1.75 WHIP. That includes a start on the road against the light-hitting A's in which he allowed six earned runs in a single inning of work. He did bounce back nicely in his home debut against the Mariners but I certainly don't anticipate seeing him completely shut down the Nationals here. Note that the Guardians used three of their best relievers in last night's game, Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase each logged an inning. While that doesn't mean they won't be available on Saturday, we could see diminished effectiveness. I expect Washington starter Chad Kuhl to have a tough time containing the Cleveland offense here. The Guardians put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers thanks to their aggressive base-running and speed on the basepaths. That's not to mention the fact that they know how to work the counts and see a lot of pitches. Kuhl has logged a 7.37 FIP and 1.50 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 16-of-44 batters to reach base. Behind Kuhl is an average-at-best Nats' bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.40 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Take the over (8*). |
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04-14-23 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I think this has the potential to be one of the more entertaining games on Friday's MLB board but not necessarily because it projects as high-scoring. We actually have a solid starting pitching matchup as the Cubs hand the ball to Justin Steele and the Dodgers counter with Noah Syndergaard. Steele had an impressive 2022 campaign, recording a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP. Command was an issue and has been through his first two outings this season as well but he's managed to limit the damage thanks to keeping his hits allowed down and strikeouts up. While Steele's last outing did find its way 'over' the total in a blowout win over the Rangers, he hasn't seen consecutive starts go 'over' the total since last June. It's a similar story for Syndergaard. His last start went 'over' the total but he's only posted consecutive 'over' results once since last June. Speaking of that last start, it was an ugly one as Syndergaard allowed six earned runs on eight hits over just four innings, clearly the D'Backs had his number seeing him for the second time in six days. That performance skewed his early season numbers as he was actually sharp in his debut, right here at home at Dodger Stadium, holding the same D'Backs to just one earned run over six innings. Both bullpens have been good but not great in the early going. I would certainly expect the Dodgers relief corps to rank among the best in baseball before too long. I like the fact that both teams are coming off an off day on Thursday given both bullpens have worked north of 40 innings already this season. Cubs and Dodgers relievers have combined to record an impressive 93:25 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 in the Cubs last 18 games following an off day going back to last season, resulting in an average total of just 6.5 runs in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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04-14-23 | Mets -1.5 v. A's | 17-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The A's actually had a bit of an offensive explosion over the final three games of their series in Baltimore but managed just one victory. Here, I look for the Oakland offense to go back in the tank as it returns home to cavernous O.co Coliseum to host the Mets. Kodai Senga will get his third big league start for the Mets. While his command hasn't necessarily been there just yet (six walks through 11 1/3 innings, there's no question he has been impressive, posting a 3.66 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday will be James Kaprielian. I question whether the A's right-hander is long for a big league rotation at this point. He's been in the majors full-time since 2021 and has logged a 4.72 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. The book is effectively out on Kaprielian and I look for the Mets to be next in line to take advantage on Friday. Behind Kaprielian is an A's bullpen that doesn't even get a chance to catch its breath after another wild, high-scoring game in Baltimore yesterday. The A's have already logged 55 innings in relief, posting a collective 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and lost an arm to injury in Domingo Acevedo during the series in Baltimore. New York's 'pen is still missing closer Edwin Diaz but has been impressive nonetheless, recording a 3.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I just think the Timberwolves are a mess right now in all regards and don't really understand the logic behind them being favored by such a considerable margin in this play-in game against the pesky Thunder. Yes, Oklahoma City continues to struggle to contain opposing offenses. The Thunder prevailed on Wednesday in New Orleans despite allowing the Pelicans to knock down 42-of-87 field goal attempts. I'm not convinced the T'Wolves are as well-positioned to take advantage of Oklahoma City's current defensive transgressions, however. Anthony Edwards is a shell of his former self due to late-season injuries and shot a miserable 6-of-17 from the field in Tuesday's loss to the Lakers. It remains to be seen if Rudy Gobert will return after serving his one-game suspension as he deals with a bad back. The Thunder are a taxing opponent to face right now as they continue to push the pace, hoisting up 93, 97, 90 and 92 field goal attempts over their last four games. It's been a struggle for the T'Wolves to just get shots off let alone knock them down, attempting 85 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games including only 83 in Tuesday's overtime contest against the Lakers. Minnesota has picked a bad time to go in the tank offensively, making good on 41 or fewer field goals in six of its last seven games. It has also struggled to slow down the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in seven straight contests (aided by overtime last time out). While the T'Wolves have taken three of four meetings with the Thunder this season they haven't covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series since last season (they won the most recent meeting ATS on December 16th). Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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04-14-23 | Orioles -101 v. White Sox | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. It seems that every year the White Sox carry high hopes into the season residing in a seemingly manageable American League Central but here we are a couple of weeks into the season and they're already four games back of first place looking up at both the Guardians and Twins. Coming off consecutive losses in Minnesota and missing table-setter Tim Anderson due to injury, I look for them to fall short again as they open this series with the Orioles on Friday. Baltimore just took three of four games from Oakland, scoring 29 runs in the process. I look for it to keep up its hot streak at the plate here against Chicago starter Mike Clevinger. He has posted a 3.68 FIP but an ugly 1.55 WHIP through two outings, allowing 18-of-49 batters he has faced to reach base. Inconsistency has been Clevinger's calling card throughout his big league career and I expect that to be a storyline thorughout this season as well. Behind Clevinger is a White Sox bullpen that has been among baseball's worst so far this season, recording a collective 7.01 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 43 2/3 innings. That's in stark contrast to the O's relief corps' which has posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings. I don't know that too much will be asked of Baltimore's 'pen in this one with Tyler Wells starting. He has posted a 4.30 FIP but an impressive 0.55 WHIP through two outings (one in long relief) spanning 11 innings so far this season. Only six of the 39 batters Wells has faced have managed to reach base. Across parts of three big league seasons, Wells has allowed just 7.1 hits, 1.4 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings, only lagging behind Clevinger in one of those departments (home runs allowed). Take Baltimore (8*). |
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04-13-23 | Flyers v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off victories two nights ago with the Flyers scoring four goals in an overtime win over the Blue Jackets and the Blackhawks dashing the Penguins playoff hopes with a stunning 5-2 road win. Offensive success hasn't been commonplace for either squad lately, however. Philadelphia has been held to three goals or less in regulation time in seven straight games. Chicago has scored three goals or less in 12 of its last 14 contests. These two teams last met back in January with the Blackhawks skating to a 4-1 road win. Note that the 'under' is 12-5 with the Flyers seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, leading to an average total of just 5.3 goals in that situation. We've seen Philadelphia suffer a considerable drop-off in offensive production on the road this season as it averages just 2.3 goals per game away from home compared to its 2.7 gpg overall scoring average. While Chicago has seen the 'over' cash in each of its last three contests, it has previously posted four straight 'over' results just once this season and that came back in mid-November. The 'under' has gone 6-1 with the Blackhawks coming off three or more consecutive 'over' results this season. The Flyers have posted back-to-back 'overs' but have reeled off more than two 'over' results in a row only once since February 21st, that coming in a five-game streak in mid-March. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-23 | Twins v. Yankees -140 | 11-2 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Minnesota at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Twins managed to pull out a series victory over the division-rival White Sox after dropping the opener earlier in the week and they did it thanks in large part to their pitching staff. Minnesota is playing with a fairly slim margin for error right now as it continues to deal with a number of key injuries. The Twins could be without Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Alex Kirillof and Jorge Polanco for this game with only Buxton and Correa even having an outside chance at starting. Not surprisingly, the Twinkies have plated just 11 runs over their last four games with some help from extra innings over that stretch. While I do like Minnesota starter Joe Ryan, I can't help but feel he'll be asked to do a little too much on Thursday. Note that he's made just one previous start against the Yankees, that coming last September in a 7-1 defeat here in the Bronx. Ryan has already allowed two home runs in as many starts this season despite those two outings coming in predominantly 'pitcher's parks' in Kansas City and Minnesota. While the Twins bullpen is outstanding, it did use two of its key late-inning arms in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran in each of the last two days. The Yankees will hand the ball to impressive rookie start Jhony Brito. We won with the Yanks in his most recent start in Baltimore last Saturday. While he didn't have his best stuff in that contest, he still allowed just one earned run over five innings. Brito has posted a 2.70 FIP and 0.80 WHIP through two big league outings this season. Like the Twins, the Yankees have an elite bullpen that enters Thursday's action sporting a collective 1.87 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with four saves converted and only one blown. Take New York (8*). |
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04-13-23 | Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
A.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I think we're dealing with a bit of 'small sample size-itis' when it comes to the two starting pitchers in Thursday's series-finale between the Red Sox and Rays. Corey Kluber probably isn't as bad as his early returns indicate while Jeffrey Springs probably isn't quite as good (although I still have him pegged as an elite starter this season). With that said, I believe this total will prove too high after we saw the last two contests in this series sail 'over' the number. Kluber had an awful season debut on Opening Day against the Orioles but did rebound to work five effective innings against the upstart Pirates last time out. Here, he'll pitch on seven days' rest and I do think that helps his cause as he faces a familiar foe in the Rays (who he pitched for last season). Springs has been lights out through his first two starts, recording a 1.40 FIP and 0.54 WHIP in 13 shutout innings. Of course, he's faced the Tigers and A's - two of the American League's weakest offensive clubs. With that being said, I do think he can keep his hot start going against a Red Sox lineup that has proven to be top-heavy to say the least. Both bullpens got touched up in last night's wild 9-7 Rays victory but had previously been solid in the early going this season. Boston entered last night's play with a collective 3.09 bullpen ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The Rays relief corps went into Wednesday's action sporting an impressive 1.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-23 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 226 | Top | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and New Orleans at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter this play-in matchup on the heels of consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night in New Orleans. The Thunder have been relentlessly pushing the pace regardless who has been in or out of the lineup in recent weeks, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in 11 of their last 15 games and 92 or more in 10 of those contests. Unfortunately it has come at the expense of their defensive play it seems as they've allowed 12 of their last 13 opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals. While not known for their offensive prowess, the Pelicans appear well-positioned to take advantage having made good on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 18 games overall. While New Orleans got into this play-in tournament thanks in large part to its terrific defense down the stretch, we did see a three-game lull in which it yielded 42, 46 and 50 made field goals earlier this month. It followed that up by holding the Knicks and T'Wolves to just 38 and 39 made field goals in its final two regular season contests but those two opponents still managed to score 105 and 113 points. The Pelicans figure to have their hands full here, noting that the Thunder have averaged an impressive average of 124.5 points per game when coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games this season, as is the case here. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-3 in that situation, resulting in an average total of 243.7 points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-23 | Bulls +5.5 v. Raptors | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Toronto at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors managed to close out their regular season on a high note by blowing out the undermanned Bucks on Sunday, snapping a two-game skid in the process. I'm just not sold on this Toronto team, noting that nothing seemed to come easy for it all season, going an even 40-40 ATS (excluding pushes) and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of just 1.5 points. The Bulls were almost a mirror-image during the regular season, going 42-39 ATS while outscoring opponents by 1.3 points on average. I fully expect a tightly-contested affair between these familiar foes on Wednesday and will grab all the points I can get with the underdog Bulls. Note that Toronto did take the most recent meeting 104-98 here at home in late February. That's notable as the Raptors haven't won consecutive games against the Bulls since reeling off an incredible 12 straight victories in the series from 2017 to 2020. They haven't posted two ATS wins in a row over Chicago since March and October of 2019. Thanks to a defense that checks in having held 10 of its last 13 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, I do think the Bulls are capable of hanging with anyone on any given night. The Raps have been similarly tough to break down defensively but that only lends itself to a reasonably low-scoring game here and in that situation, I'm comfortable grabbing the generous helping of points with Chicago. Note that Toronto is just 9-21 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by just 0.5 points on average in that situation. Take Chicago (8*). |
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04-12-23 | Mariners -104 v. Cubs | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Cubs have gotten the better of the Mariners in the first two games of this series but I think Seattle has the right pitcher on the mound to stem the tide and end its three-game losing skid on Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Logan Gilbert will take the ball for the Mariners. We cashed one of our bigger plays of the season in a similar situation last year as Gilbert took the ball in a matinee affair against the White Sox in Chicago and helped Seattle avoid the sweep with a terrific performance. I expect a similar outcome here. Gilbert had a fine Spring and he's picked up right where he left off in the regular season, recording a 3.01 FIP and 1.30 WHIP in 10 innings of work. Behind Gilbert is a Mariners bullpen that got roughed up last night but has been solid in the early going this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.76 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Thanks to getting three innings from seldom-used Jose Rodriguez in mop-up duty the M's 'pen isn't in all that awful shape rest-wise entering Wednesday's matinee affair. Marcus Stroman will get the start for the Cubs. He's turned back the clock in a sense, following up an outstanding Spring with two fine outings to open the regular season (2.82 FIP and 0.92 WHIP). I can't help but feel regression is coming, however, noting that Stroman recorded a pedestrian 3.76 FIP and 1.15 WHIP last season. The Cubs have used key bullpen arm Mark Leiter Jr. in each of the last two nights so you have to figure he'll be unavailable on Wednesday. Chicago's bullpen entered last night's game having logged a collective 4.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with one save converted and two blown on the campaign. Take Seattle (10*). |
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04-11-23 | Cardinals -162 v. Rockies | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cardinals have run into some tough pitching after a hot start to the season (offensively at least), recording single-digit hits in four of their last five games. In fact, they enter this game on a 1-6 slide but I look for them to turn things around on Tuesday. Cards starter Miles Mikolas is off to a rough start himself, allowing 19 hits and 10 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings so far this season. With that being said, things probably aren't as bad as his inflated 9.64 ERA would seem to indicate as he has actually posted a 2.86 FIP. Keep in mind, he had an outstanding Spring, not allowing a single earned run in three starts, covering a span of 12 innings. While Coors Field isn't exactly an ideal park to bounce back in, I'm confident Mikolas can pitch well enough to give his team a chance on Tuesday. St. Louis will get a chance to tee off on a left-hander for the first time since it delivered a 6-0 win over Eric Lauer and the Brewers on Saturday. The Cards check in 49-25, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.5 runs when facing left-handed starting pitching over the last 2+ seasons. St. Louis is also an incredible 46-19 in its last 65 games as a road favorite, outscoring the opposition by 1.9 runs on average along the way. Here, the Cards will face Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland. He's off to an admittedly strong start - the polar opposite of Mikolas after Freeland endured a difficult Spring that saw him post an ERA approaching six and a 1.93 WHIP in 9 1/3 innings. I don't think we should get too excited about the fact that Freeland hasn't allowed an earned run through two starts as he has posted a less-than-impressive 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings and his 3.16 FIP tells a different story compared to his flawless ERA. This will be the Cards third time seeing Freeland since the start of last season, connecting for nine earned runs on 17 hits over 10 1/3 innings over those two previous contests. The St. Louis bullpen is worth betting on in my opinion even if its numbers have been rather pedestrian so far (3.53 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 35 2/3 innings). The Rockies 'pen has struggled to the tune of a 5.31 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, not to mention the fact that it has already been overworked, logging north of 40 innings collectively. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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04-11-23 | Hawks +5 v. Heat | Top | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Heat easily disposed of the Hawks in the opening round of last year's Playoffs and while it's been a long time coming, Atlanta finally has a chance to get its revenge when it really matters in Tuesday's Play-In Tournament opener. Yes, these two teams met four times during the regular season with Miami taking three of those four contests as well. The Hawks know they can hang with the Heat though. Their back-to-back losses here in Miami in early March came by a combined 10 points. Interestingly, the Heat were favored by only 2.5 points in the latter of those two contests. Here, Atlanta is arguably healthier than it was then - the healthiest it has been all season in fact. While the Hawks do come in off consecutive losses, their final regular season affair was a throwaway game against the Celtics where their starters sat. Prior to dropping their final two regular season contests they had won three games in a row. They enter this game having made good on 43 or more field goals in five straight games and more than 40 in an incredible 17 of their last 18 contests. While the Heat are known for their defense, they actually haven't held an opponent to fewer than 100 points since February 27th. You would have to go all the way back to mid-January to find the last time they held an opponent under 100 points and won by more than four points. Interestingly, Miami was actually held under 100 points itself in three of its last 11 regular season contests. While the Hawks are by no means an elite defensive team and haven't been in recent years, you would have to go back a whopping 18 meetings in this series to find the last time Miami knocked down more than 43 field goals. The Hawks breezed past that mark in two of the last three matchups in this series. Finally, we'll note that Atlanta is 16-4 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.0 points. Meanwhile, the Heat check in a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games this season, which is the situation here, outscored by 8.3 points on average in that spot. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-11-23 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning -130 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning are reeling right now, losers of three games in a row, all on the road mind you. The Bolts are 27-7-5 on home ice this season and here, we'll note that they're 37-9 when playing at home off a loss over the last three seasons, averaging 4.0 goals and outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Over the same stretch, Tampa Bay has also gone 28-7 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent, as is the case here, allowing just 2.1 goals and outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. The Maple Leafs check in off a 2-1 win over the Panthers in Sunrise last night. As I've noted many times before, sweeping a two-game trip to Florida is never easy and I expect the Leafs to find that out once again tonight. Note that the Leafs have won their last two games but have gone 9-14 when coming off consecutive victories this season, outscored by 0.3 goals on average in that situation. Toronto is also a long-term 76-100 after holding three straight opponents to two goals or fewer, as is the case here. With neither team able to move up or down in the standings, the first round playoff series between them is already locked-in. With that being said, the Bolts will certainly be eager to right the ship in their final two regular season contests and I expect them to do just that right here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-10-23 | Canucks v. Kings -177 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Vancouver at 10:35 pm et on Monday. The Kings have now lost three games in a row - only the second time all season they've done so. On the previous occasion, they bounced back with a 5-2 victory over the Sharks in their next game. Here, they'll have the opportunity to rebound against another non-playoff bound opponent in the Canucks. I look for them to take full advantage. Note that Los Angeles is 21-14 after losing five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.5 goals in that situation. Better still, the Kings are 18-9 after losing three of their last four contests over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. Finally, they're 9-1 after allowing four goals or more in consecutive games this season, which is also the situation here, outscoring opponents by 1.3 goals on average along the way. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-10-23 | Dodgers -148 v. Giants | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Dodgers had a rough weekend in Arizona, dropping three straight games, allowing double-digit runs in the most recent two setbacks. They have the right guy on the mound to get them back on track on Monday in Julio Urias. He was good but not great in the Spring but has ramped up quickly in the regular season, recording a 1.65 FIP and 0.75 WHIP through two starts, spanning 12 innings of work. Urias faced the Giants five times last season, allowing only three earned runs in 30 innings. Logan Webb will counter for San Francisco. He's been solid through two outings as well but his numbers certainly don't stand up to Urias', with a 3.40 FIP and 1.36 WHIP. The Dodgers should welcome the opportunity to face Webb after tagging him for 13 earned runs across four starts last season. While we've seen a couple of offensive breakouts from the Giants this season, I do think it's going to be a struggle for them to manufacture offense on most nights. We certainly saw that against the Royals over the weekend as they were barely able to salvage Sunday's series-finale with an eighth-inning rally. Here, they'll be in tough against a Dodgers bullpen that is in line for a bounce-back series, having logged a 4.68 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in a reasonable 32 2/3 innings. The Giants 'pen has recorded a 5.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 30 frames so far this season. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-10-23 | A's v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Baltimore at 6:35 pm et on Monday. This game pits a matchup of two offenses looking to explode after getting held down by superior pitching over the weekend. The A's were completely shut down by Rays starters Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen and that certainly wasn't unexpected. Keep in mind, Oakland had plated at least four runs in four straight games prior to those shutout losses. The Orioles couldn't get anything going against Yankees impressive rookie Jhony Brito and Nestor Cortes Jr. They scored just four runs across those two contests after plating seven in a one-run victory on Friday. JP Sears will take the ball for the A's on Monday. He got off to a promising start with the Yankees last season but it seemed that the book was out on him as the season went on as he recorded a 4.70 FIP and 1.48 WHIP in 48 innings pitched with the A's. His counterpart on Monday will be Kyle Gibson. His numbers have gotten progressively worse over the last two seasons and he's not exactly off to a banner start this year either. Gibson has posted a 4.73 FIP through his first two starts, allowing six earned runs in 12 innings of work. Note that the 'over' is 74-49 all-time (average of 10.0 total runs per game) with Gibson pitching at home and now he moves to a hitter-friendly park in Baltimore. The two bullpens in this matchup have been a mixed bag this season. The A's 'pen checks in sporting a 4.46 ERA and 1.40 WHIP after getting roughed up by the Rays over the weekend. The O's relief corps' has posted a 3.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP but has already blown a pair of saves. Take the over (8*). |
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04-09-23 | Rangers v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. We saw a much higher-scoring game than expected in this matchup yesterday as the Cubs tacked on seven runs over their final three turns at bat in a 10-3 rout. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair as the Rangers send Jon Gray to the hill against Jameson Taillon of the Cubs. Gray had a terrific first season with the Rangers last year, posting a 3.80 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. To say he excelled in the Spring this year would be an understatement as he logged a 1.02 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work. While he wasn't overly sharp in his first regular season outing, he did minimize the damage, allowing just two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings. It's a similar story for Cubs offseason acquisition Taillon. He had a strong Spring, posting a 0.76 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. Last season he recorded a 3.94 FIP and 1.13 WHIP with the Yankees. In his Cubs regular season debut last week, Taillon got worked over a bit over four innings, yielding three earned runs on seven hits. I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here as he makes his second start of the campaign at Wrigley Field. While things fell apart for the Rangers bullpen yesterday, it had been one of the strongest relief corps' in baseball in the early stages of the season and I'm not sure too much will be asked of it here given Gray's ability to work deep into the game. The Cubs 'pen has logged a less than impressive collective ERA but entered yesterday's game sporting a 1.15 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-23 | Red Sox v. Tigers +106 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Boston at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Red Sox have taken the first two games in this series in lopsided fashion but I look for the Tigers to answer back and avoid the sweep in Sunday's series finale. Kutter Crawford will take the ball for Boston. He was good, but certainly not great, during the Spring as he logged a 4.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The wheels came off rather quickly in his regular season debut as he was tagged for seven earned runs in just four innings with 10 of 22 batters he faced reaching base. Crawford has yet to really show he can excel at the big league level after posting a 4.34 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in his rookie campaign last year. Matt Boyd had a terrific Spring and while he labored through 4 1/3 innings in his first regular season outing against the Astros, he did limit the damage giving up only two earned runs. Boyd showed promise in his last season with the Tigers in 2021 before an injury-shortened 2022 campaign with the Mariners saw him work just north of 13 innings. Boston's bullpen holds the edge based on early season numbers but has already been overworked, logging 36 2/3 innings through eight games. Take Detroit (8*). |
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04-08-23 | Avalanche v. Kings +111 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Colorado at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. It's been a struggle for the Kings over the last couple of games as they sorely miss the likes of Kevin Fiala and Mikey Anderson who are among those sidelined with injuries as we wind down the regular season. The Avalanche are dealing with injuries of their own and off three consecutive victories, I believe they're in for a letdown on Saturday. The Kings are still 25-14 on home ice this season where they've averaged an impressive 3.6 goals per game. Here, we'll note that they're 14-7 when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that spot. They're also an impressive 10-2 when coming off consecutive losses this season, averaging 4.1 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.3 goals on average in that situation. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-08-23 | Blue Jays v. Angels -109 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Toronto at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. While I do expect Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios to pitch better than he did in his regular season debut against the Royals, I'm not convinced we'll see him out-duel a still-underrated Tyler Anderson on Saturday night in Anaheim. Berrios generally does bounce back from bad performances but this is still a tricky spot after the Angels tagged him for six earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings in this ballpark last May. Berrios didn't have a great Spring, logging a 4.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings. In stark contrast, Anderson posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 13 1/3 Spring innings and picked up right where he left off in his first regular season start, allowing only six of 24 batters to reach base over six shutout innings against Oakland. While I'll give the Blue Jays bullpen the slight edge, the gap isn't perhaps as wide as you might expect with the Angels relief corps having posted a collective 4.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP so far this season. The Halos 'pen has also been asked to work just 23 innings through seven games which is certainly a positive. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-08-23 | Yankees -120 v. Orioles | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I think we can buy low with rookie starter Jhony Brito and the Yankees on Saturday as they look to get back at the Orioles after dropping yesterday's series-opener by a 7-6 score. Brito was impressive during the Spring as he posted a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, allowing only 12-of-52 batters to reach base in 13 innings of work. He picked up right where he left off in his first regular season outing, yielding just two hits and no walks over five shutout innings against the Giants. Cole Irvin joined the Orioles by way of the A's in the offseason. He has proven very hittable over the course of his young career, allowing 9.5 hits per nine innings. That continued in the Spring as he was tagged for 10.5 hits per nine frames in 14 1/3 innings logged. His regular season debut didn't go so well either as he lasted only four innings and gave up six earned runs on eight hits against the Red Sox. While the Yankees bullpen has posted the considerably better ERA, I do think the two relief corps' are more or less a wash so far this season. With that being said, I'm confident the Yankees can persevere in this bounce-back spot as they avoid losing consecutive games for the first time this season. Take New York (8*). |
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04-08-23 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Tampa Bay at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. There's going to be a wide range of outcomes to deal with every time A's starter Shintaro Fujinami takes the ball in the early going this season. His first big league outing didn't go so well as he couldn't make it through three innings against the Angels, allowing eight earned runs on five hits and three walks. I do think he can bounce back here, however, noting that he has tremendous stuff, but needs to find some consistency. The Rays offense exploded in a blowout victory last night, paced by a Isaac Paredes grand slam. Here, they'll turn to Jeffrey Springs to start Game 2 of this series. Springs is one of the most underrated starters in baseball in my opinion. He had an incredible 2022 campaign, posting a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 135 1/3 innings. His first start this season was a gem as he allowed just one walk over six otherwise perfect innings, striking out 12 along the way. That comes on the heels of a phenomenal Spring that saw him toss 14 shutout frames. Both bullpens have been sharp in the early going this season with the A's relief corps posting a 3.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and the Rays 'pen logging a 2.16 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-23 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 11 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. Yesterday's series-opener produced a grand total of one run as the Rockies delivered a rare shutout victory behind a terrific pitching performance from Kyle Freeland. I expect nothing of the sort on Friday as Colorado sends Jose Urena to the mound against MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals. Gore faced the Rockies twice last season as a member of the Padres, including a start here at Coors Field where he allowed three home runs and eight earned runs in just four innings in a 10-4 loss. In his 2023 debut, Gore limited the damage in an eventual 4-1 home win over the Braves, but did struggle with his command, issuing four walks over 5 1/3 innings. That's been a common theme as he allowed 4.8 walks per nine innings and posted a 1.47 WHIP in his rookie campaign a year ago. It's a wonder that Jose Urena is still in a big league rotation. He logged a 4.65 FIP and 1.57 WHIP splitting time with the Brewers and Rockies last year. He struggled in the Spring with a 6.52 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and then labored through 2 1/3 innings, allowing four earned runs in his first regular season outing against the Padres. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence in this matchup. The Nationals relief corps has been the better of the two but hasn't enjoyed an off day since last Friday. The Rockies 'pen checks in sporting a collective 5.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP but was helped out by Freeland working deep into yesterday's contest. Take the over (8*). |
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04-07-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I do like the Brewers in this matchup but I think they're being priced appropriately so will go with a play on the total instead. Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty struggled mightily with his command in his first start of the campaign, walking seven Blue Jays batters while hitting another over five innings. With that being said, he didn't allow a hit in that contest and faced less than ideal conditions on a cold, windy day in St. Louis. Here, he'll look to bounce back in perfect conditions indoors in Milwaukee, noting that the Brewers are probably in line for some regression at the plate after racking up 35 runs over their last four games. Even after a rough Spring, not to mention a laborous 2022 campaign, I'm not ready to give up on Flaherty just yet as he still owns a career 3.94 FIP and 1.11 WHIP and it's not as if his velocity has fallen off a cliff despite shoulder issues. Countering Flaherty will be Brewers co-ace Brandon Woodruff. He was terrific in his first start of the season, allowing just one earned run on three hits over six innings against the Cubs. Woodruff had a solid Spring as well, logging a sparkling 0.83 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings. While he didn't factor into the All-Star Game or National League Cy Young voting last season, there was certainly nothing wrong with a 3.08 FIP and 1.07 WHIP. Both bullpens have been among the best in baseball in the early going this season with the Cards relief corps logging a collective 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and the Brewers putting together a 1.33 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Both will also have all hands on deck after an off day on Thursday. Take the under (8*). |
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04-07-23 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 222.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a very low-scoring game by today's NBA standards between these two teams on this same floor two nights ago as the Celtics scrapped their way to a 97-93 victory in a tough back-to-back situation. Here, I expect a lot more offense as the two teams get ready for the postseason but perhaps lack defensive intensity with little to play for at this point. The Raptors will certainly want to get back on track offensively after a dismal showing on Wednesday. They shot 6-of-33 from three-point range in that contest, noting that they average 11 made threes per game this season. The pace was still there as they hoisted up 90 field goal attempts in the loss. Note that they've gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven games overall. The Celtics are coming off consecutive poor offensive performances, including a 38-of-91 showing from the field in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Like the Raptors, the Celtics have continued to push the pace here late in the season, hoisting up 89 or more FG attempts in each of their last eight contests. While Boston is thought of as an elite defensive team, that hasn't necessarily been the case lately as it has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off 90 or more FG attempts and allows an average of 42 made field goals per game at home this season. The C's could be without two of their top defenders on Friday with Derrick White and Marcus Smart questionable to play as they employ some 'load management' in the late going. Take the over (10*). |
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04-07-23 | Astros v. Twins -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Friday. If the Twins are going to be true contenders in the American League this season, this is a good early 'measuring stick' series for them at home against the Astros. I like them to take the opener on Friday night with Sonny Gray taking the ball against Jose Urquidy. Gray hasn't received many accolades but he's pitched exceptionally well over the last few seasons in particular. Last year, Gray logged a 3.40 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He had a terrific Spring, posting a 1.86 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings and while his command wasn't necessarily there in his regular season debut he did battle through it to work five innings, allowing just three hits and no earned runs against the Royals. He'll obviously face a tougher challenge here but I'm confident he'll be up for it. Urquidy has been a bit of an enigma for the Astros. Last year he posted a less than impressive 4.60 FIP but a solid 1.17 WHIP and that's been about par for the course for him over his 4+ year big league career. Urquidy didn't have a great Spring and followed that up with a shaky first regular season outing, allowing seven hits and three earned runs including two home runs in only four innings against the White Sox. While the Astros bullpen has been solid in the early going this season, it has already been overworked, logging 28 1/3 innings. Contrast that with the Twins relief corps, which has been asked to work just 18 2/3 innings, recording a collective 3.37 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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04-06-23 | Dodgers -144 v. Diamondbacks | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The D'Backs have hung tough through their first six games this season, managing to split a pair of road series' against tonight's opponent, the Dodgers, and the Padres. While I do think the Snakes can surprise in the N.L. West this season, I still feel there's a considerable gap between these two clubs and will back the Dodgers and starter Dustin May in a 'revenge' spot on Thursday. May was masterful in his season debut against these same D'Backs last weekend but was ultimately saddled with a no-decision in a 2-1 loss. After a terrific Spring, May picked up right where he left off, tossing seven innings of three-hit shutout ball against Arizona. Note that May has only gotten limited work in during the early stages of his big league career but when he's healthy, he's capable of big things, as he showed during his rookie campaign back in 2020 when he finished top-five in National League Rookie of the Year voting. Merrill Kelly will counter for the D'Backs. We saw an alarming trend emerge during his Spring starts as he issued four walks in only seven innings of work and that lack of command seems to have carried over to the regular season as well as he handed out four free passes in just 3 2/3 innings against the Dodgers last weekend. Los Angeles has now seen Kelly a whopping six times since the start of last season. Last Friday marked the first time in any of those six games that Arizona actually managed to pick up a victory. Kelly has allowed 29 earned runs on 53 hits in his last 38 2/3 innings pitched against Los Angeles. Finally, I'll point out that the Snakes bullpen has recorded a collective 4.77 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings this season while the Dodgers relief corps has posted a sparkling 2.84 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-06-23 | Kings +120 v. Golden Knights | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Kings came out flat and ultimately fell by a 3-1 score at home against the red hot Oilers two nights ago. The fact that Los Angeles was able to stay in that game at all, tying proceedings at a goal apiece early in the third period, was impressive after it had just clinched a playoff berth three nights earlier with a win in Vancouver. Here, we'll note that the Kings check in 20-12 when coming off a loss this season and 24-15 when following up a defeat by two goals or more over the last two seasons, averaging 3.2 goals per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.5 goals in that latter situation. The Golden Knights continue to pace the Pacific Division but are just 2-3 over their last five games. While the Kings have tightened things up defensively down the stretch, the Knights have yielded three goals or more in five of their last six contests. Of course, that might have something to do with the fact that they're missing the top two goaltenders on their depth chart, not to mention stud defenseman Shea Theodore due to injuries. The Kings have injury concerns of their own with Kevin Fiala and Mikey Anderson among those missing but I look for them to rally once again here, noting the importance of potentially catching the Oilers for second-place in the Pacific Division, and home ice advantage in the first round. The Kings currently sit three points back with four games remaining (including a game-in-hand). Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-06-23 | Blazers v. Spurs OVER 230 | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have struggled at the best of times defensively and neither has much incentive to ratchet up the defensive intensity for Thursday's 'meaningless' matchup in San Antonio. With that being said, both teams are coming off 'under' results last time out and I feel that's affording us a very reasonable total to work with on Thursday. The Blazers have actually found some rhythm offensively despite missing so many key contributors. They've knocked down 40, 43 and 42 field goals over their last three games and have been comfortable pushing the pace more than they had been previously, hoisting up 85, 93 and 97 field goal attempts in those most recent three contests. They'll have a prime opportunity to build on those encouraging performances in San Antonio on Thursday as the Spurs have been sieve-like defensively, allowing 43 or more made field goals in an incredible 12 straight and 15 of their last 16 games overall. The only reason they gave up 'only' 43 made field goals last time out was due to the lopsided nature of their game against the Suns (Phoenix attempted only 89 field goals). In what projects as a much closer affair here, we can anticipate the Blazers getting well into the 90's in terms of FG attempts. The Spurs had their streak of three straight games knocking down at least 42 field goals snapped last time out. They'll take a major step down in class after facing the Suns in that matchup, however. Portland has allowed six of its last seven opponents to make good on at least 41 field goals despite four of those foes getting off 87 or fewer FG attempts. Note that the Spurs have hoisted up 90 or more FG attempts in seven straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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04-06-23 | Padres v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. This game features one of the best pitching matchups on Thursday's board as the Padres send left-hander Blake Snell to the hill against super-soph Spencer Strider of the Braves. Snell has settled in nicely since joining the Padres prior to the 2021 campaign. He recorded a 3.82 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 128 2/3 innings that season before improving on those numbers with a 2.80 FIP and 1.20 WHIP in 128 frames of work last year. Snell has the benefit of having faced the Braves only once before with that start coming back in 2018 (he allowed one earned run in 6 1/3 innings in a 1-0 loss). Spencer Strider finished second in National League Rookie of the Year voting last year and probably should have received votes for the Cy Young as well as he posted a sparkling 1.83 FIP and 0.96 WHIP in 131 2/3 innings. Like Snell against the Braves, Strider will have the element of surprise working in his favor here having never faced the Padres previously. The Braves bullpen has been outstanding in the early going this season and while the Padres relief corps' has struggled, it does have the advantage of having had yesterday off so it will be all hands on deck for Thursday's series-opener. All three meetings here in Atlanta last season went 'over' the total but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday. Take the under (8*). |
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04-06-23 | Giants +122 v. White Sox | 16-6 | Win | 122 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. Alex Wood finally gets his first start of the season for the Giants on Thursday and I look for him to outduel White Sox veteran Lance Lynn. Wood had a fine Spring, posting a 3.60 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Last season, he recorded in inflated 5.10 ERA but that didn't tell the whole story as he logged a solid 3.76 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. Lynn labored to the tune of a 4.30 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 14 2/3 Spring innings and didn't pitch particularly well in his regular season debut either, allowing just two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings but posting a 6.02 FIP. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has logged a collective 7.97 ERA and 2.16 WHIP in 20 1/3 innings of work this season. The Giants 'pen hasn't been lights out either, posting a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.53 WHIP but at least has the benefit of being relatively fresh, working just 16 1/3 innings to date. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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04-05-23 | Bulls +8 v. Bucks | Top | 92-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We'll fade the Bucks off consecutive double-digit wins over the 76ers and Wizards as they return home in a back-to-back spot on Wednesday night. Chicago is in a back-to-back situation of its own after dropping a lopsided home decision against the Hawks last night. I can't help but feel the Bulls overlooked a Trae Young-less Atlanta squad. The Hawks were actually held to just 86 field goal attempts in that game - the eighth straight contest in which Chicago limited the opposition to 86 or fewer field goal attempts - but quite simply shot the lights out, knocking down 48 of them. I certainly don't expect the Bulls to overlook the mighty Bucks here. Note that Chicago is 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an impressive average margin of 7.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are a long-term 103-144 ATS when playing at home after winning three of their last four games, which is the situation here, and 113-147 ATS when returning home following a road victory. Note that while the Bucks are coming off consecutive wins, they've only won three games in a row once going back to March 11th. Chicago has lost consecutive contests only once since March 8th. Take Chicago (10*). |
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04-05-23 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Milwaukee at 1:40 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive 'over' results to open this series and it's had everything to do with the Brewers hot bats as they've plated 19 runs while shutting out the Mets in consecutive games. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as New York sends left-hander David Peterson to the mound against Brewers ace Corbin Burnes. Peterson had a fine Spring, not allowing a single earned run in in 12 innings of work. Walks were an issue as he handed out eight free passes but he put those concerns to rest in his regular season debut as he walked just one in five innings (while allowing one earned run on a solo home run) in an encouraging performance against the Marlins. Note that the Brewers have seen just one left-handed starter this season and struggled at the dish in that game against Justin Steele of the Cubs, ultimately prevailing by a 3-1 score. Burnes struggled in his first start of the campaign in Chicago but that's not all that unique as the exact same thing happened in his season debut at Wrigley Field last year. He proceeded to strike out eight batters over seven shutout innings in his next outing last April. We're talking about an elite starter that has finished at least top-seven in N.L. Cy Young voting in each of the last three seasons. I'm confident we'll see Burnes pitch well against the slumping Mets bats on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-23 | Oilers v. Kings +113 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Edmonton at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings have gotten through a tough part of their schedule that saw them play six games in nine nights in five different cities. Still, they remain within striking distance of the first-place Golden Knights in the Pacific Division (and top spot in the Western Conference). I like this quick revenge spot for Los Angeles after it suffered a 2-0 loss in Edmonton last week, despite outshooting the Oilers 43-37 in that contest. Here, we'll note that the Kings are 7-2 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they were shut out over the last two seasons. L.A. currently sits three points back of the Knights but still has one game remaining against Vegas coming up on Thursday. Of course, the Oilers are technically also within arm's reach of the Knights. They still have this back-to-back spot to deal with (they'll play in Anaheim tomorrow night) and also play four of their final five regular season games on the road. Edmonton is coming off back-to-back shutouts but has till allowed exactly four goals in five of its last eight contests. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-04-23 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams have alternated high and low-scoring games out of the gates this season and last night we saw a slugfest as the Dodgers won by a 13-4 score. I expect a reversal of course once again here as Colorado sends veteran German Marquez to the hill against Julio Urias of the Dodgers. Marquez was sharp in his season debut, allowing just two earned runs on five hits (and no walks) in six innings against the Padres. He saw plenty of these Dodgers last season and actually fared alright, allowing exactly one earned run while lasting at least six innings in two of those five outings. I like the form Marquez has shown going back to the Spring, when he recorded a sparkling 0.53 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 17 innings of work. Urias was once one of the more underrated starters in baseball but perhaps not so anymore as he's finished seventh and third in National League Cy Young voting over the last two seasons and even received MVP votes in 2022. Like Marquez, Urias tossed six solid innings in his first outing this season and also had a fine Spring that included work in the World Baseball Classic. Urias worked at least six innings in four of five starts against the Rockies last season, allowing two earned runs or less in three of those outings. While the Dodgers are absolutely loaded again offensively, I think it's too early in the campaign to expect them to hang a crooked number on the board every night. Meanwhile, Colorado has plated just 36 runs in its last 14 games played here at Chavez Ravine. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-23 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 243.5 | 125-136 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is the highest total on Tuesday's NBA board (at the time of writing) but I don't believe it is warranted. Oklahoma City checks in off a high-scoring 'over' result against the Suns on Sunday. Keep in mind, the Thunder haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since March 16th and 19th. They were actually held to just 36-of-88 from the field in that double-digit loss on Sunday and have knocked down 42 or less field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, they've limited three of their last five opponents to 82 made field goals or fewer. The Warriors dropped a 112-110 decision in Denver on Sunday. They've allowed each of their last seven opponents to knock down 44 or fewer made field goals despite four of those foes hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. The 'over' has cashed in just four of their last 12 games overall. I understand the logic behind the lofty total here, noting that each of the previous three meetings between these two teams this season totalled at least 248 points. I simply feel we'll see a reversal of that trend here, noting that the Warriors have posted a 12-24 o/u record when playing at home off a loss over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 221.8 points. Take the under (8*). |
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04-04-23 | Celtics v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The 76ers predictably had their two-game winning streak snapped in Milwaukee on Sunday as the Bucks were in line for a big bounce-back performance after an embarrassing blowout loss at home against the Celtics three nights earlier. Here, I look for Philadelphia to get back on track as it hosts Boston, which comes off consecutive wins of its own and plays the front half of a back-to-back set culminating with a home game against Toronto on Wednesday. The 76ers continue to clamp down defensively, having held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a much different story for the Celtics, who have allowed 96 or more field goal attempts in each of their last four contests. While Boston has admittedly been red hot offensively it has been idle since Friday and isn't likely to afford itself nearly as many scoring opportunities as it has seen recently (91 or more FG attempts in six straight games). Note that while the Celtics are a perfect 3-0 in this series this season, they've gotten off just 82, 76 and 86 FG attempts in those three games. All three contests could have gone either way given they were all decided by single-digit margins, including a narrow three-point C's win here in Philadelphia back on February 25th. Note that the 76ers are 19-8 ATS when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.4 points. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. My handicap of this matchup is fairly straight-forward. When we last saw these two teams in the Final Four on Saturday, San Diego was fortunate to escape with a one-point win on a buzzer-beater against Florida Atlantic while Connecticut was never really challenged in a dominant double-digit victory over Miami. I can't help but feel that leaves the Aztecs a little undervalued here as I like the way they match up against the Huskies. San Diego State is capable of defending the perimeter and making UConn work for every basket, effectively able to shorten proceedings thanks to its methodical nature, not to mention its fundamentally-sound defense. Note that the Aztecs rank fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, having faced the 16th toughest slate of offensive opponents (both according to KenPom). While UConn has run the table against non-conference opponents, it also faced just the 210th most difficult non-conference schedule. In stark contrast, San Diego State went up against the 17th toughest non-conference slate. Lines are obviously going to be extremely tight at this stage of the tournament. I've become a fan of San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher over the course of this tournament and like the fact that the Aztecs have gone 44-31 ATS when coming off an ATS loss under his guidance, as is the case here. UConn enters this game on the heels of five straight ATS wins and the last time it accomplished that feat it lost its next game outright as a four-point favorite in the Big East Tournament against Marquette. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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04-03-23 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. We saw a low-scoring game here at Great American Ballpark on Sunday but that should be the exception rather than the rule this season. I like the way the Reds are built offensively - a perfect fit for the bandbox they play their home games in. They'll get the opportunity to tee off on Cubs journeyman starter Drew Smyly on Monday, noting that the veteran left-hander posted an ERA north of six and a 1.84 WHIP in 16 1/3 innings in the Spring, tagged for six home runs along the way. Speaking of Spring struggles, Reds starter Connor Overton was lit up to the tune of a 15.43 ERA and 2.49 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings. He allowed six home runs. Again, that doesn't bode well as he prepares to make his first start of the season at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. While it's important not to put too much stock in Spring Training results, sometimes the numbers are alarming enough to cause concern and I feel that's the case here. Both lineups have shown some pop in the early going this season with the Cubs scoring 10 runs through three games against a tough Brewers pitching staff and the Reds plating 13 runs in their three-game set against the Pirates. Of note, the Cubs bullpen has already given up nine earned runs on 10 hits in just 11 innings logged. The Reds 'pen has been better, but also owns a less-than-impressive 7:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
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04-02-23 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 233.5 | Top | 134-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter Sunday's contest riding three-game 'under' streaks but I look for a reversal of that trend here. Houston has had a tougher time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately, hoisting up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in four of its last five games after eclipsing that mark five of its previous six contests. The outlier was a game in Brooklyn where the Rockets shot 46-of-98 from the field but still scored 'only' 114 points. Defensively, I like the fact that Houston has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities somewhat lately, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four straight and eight of its last nine games overall. Los Angeles has displayed a different offensive dynamic since Lebron James returned to the lineup. The Lakers have a lot of mouths to feed offensively but its been Lebron that has absorbed the majority of the opportunities. Note that Los Angeles has shot 50% or better from the field in three straight games, knocking down exactly 45 field goals in back-to-back contests heading into this one. It's not as if the Lakers have been playing at a break-neck pace - they've gotten off 90 or more FG attempts just three times in their last 11 games, topping out at 91 over that stretch (in a game where they scored 'only' 116 points leading to a total of 227 against Oklahoma City). Discipline has been key defensively as Los Angeles hasn't allowed more than 118 points in any of its last 11 games despite all 11 of those opponents knocking down 40 or more field goals. The Lakers allowed 114 points the last time they faced the Rockets on March 15th but that was on a blistering 47-of-89 shooting and that contest still stayed 'under' the total with only 224 points scored. Take the under (10*). |
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04-02-23 | Wizards v. Knicks UNDER 222.5 | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Knicks stunning rout of the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Friday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as New York returns home to host an undermanned Wizards squad on Sunday. Washington is coming off consecutive 'over' results but both of those contests were played at home, where the Wiz have played at a much faster tempo lately. Note that Washington has gotten off just 81, 84, 76, 83 and 86 field goal attempts in its last five road games. In those last two contests played at home the Wiz hoisted up 99 and 105 FG attempts. I mentioned Washington has posted consecutive 'over' results and that's notable as it hasn't recorded three straight 'overs' since February 28th to March 4th and that streak was aided by an overtime game against Toronto. To find the last time the Wiz were involved in three straight 'over' results not aided by overtime you would have to go all the way back to January 3rd to 9th. Their longest 'over' streak of the season lasted only four games and that came way back in November. The Knicks exploded offensively on Friday but keep in mind they're just one game removed from knocking down only 38 field goals, albeit on just 76 FG attempts, against Miami. In fact, New York has been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 12 games overall. Defensively, the Knicks have held seven straight opponents to 47 or fewer FG attempts. While New York is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this series, it hasn't eclipsed 117 points in any of those six contests. Take the under (8*). |
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04-02-23 | Tigers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Rays bats exploded for 12 runs in yesterday's rout of the Tigers but I think performances are likely to be few and far between for this lineup this season. While Sunday's series-finale features a pitching matchup lacking in star power, it's one with no shortage of quality nonetheless. Joey Wentz will take the ball for Detroit. He struggled to keep the ball in the yard in the Spring, leading to some inflated numbers but that was in just 14 2/3 innings of work. In his first big league season a year ago, Wentz logged 32 2/3 innings and posted a 3.54 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. Home runs weren't an issue as he allowed just 0.6 long balls per nine innings. Jeffrey Springs will counter for Tampa Bay. He improved on a stellar 2021 showing by recording a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in a career-high 135 1/3 innings of work last season. That included a start against these same Tigers in August as he didn't allow a single earned run over six frames of four-hit ball. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 with Springs on the mound and the total set between 7.0 and 8.5 over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 6.6 runs scored. Take the under (10*). |
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04-01-23 | Kings +105 v. Seattle Kraken | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kings have gotten nothing out of their current road trip, dropping consecutive decisions in Calgary and Edmonton, scoring a grand total of one goal along the way (and none in the last five periods). We're talking about a small sample size when it comes to this team struggling and I'm confident we'll see them bounce back on Saturday in Seattle. Note that Los Angeles hasn't lost three games in a row since mid-January. Meanwhile, Seattle checks in off a blowout win over the lowly Ducks on Thursday but hasn't won consecutive games since reeling off five straight wins in late February-early March. The Kraken are winless at 0-6 when playing at home after giving up one goal or less in their previous contest this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. The Kings on the other hand are 22-15 when coming off a road loss and 34-21 after dropping two of their last three games over the last two seasons. This is undoubtedly a game Los Angeles has had circled on its calendar having dropped all three previous meetings in this series this season, including a wild 9-8 defeat on home ice back on November 29th. Keep in mind, the Kings went 3-1 against the Kraken in Seattle's inaugural NHL campaign last season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL v. Connecticut UNDER 149.5 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Connecticut at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Miami has now seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total, matching its longest such streak of the season. The last time it came off three consecutive 'over' results, its next contest totalled only 134 points in a narrow loss to Duke back on January 21st. Last time out, the Canes couldn't miss from the field (they ended up shooting 59%) in a come-from-behind win over Texas. The Longhorns inexplicably decided to run with the Canes and did find some success offensively, knocking down 30-of-60 field goal attempts themselves but it wasn't enough. I don't think we'll see Connecticut push the pace nearly as much here, noting it ranks outside the top-200 in the country in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). While the Huskies have been red hot offensively, I don't think their best chance at winning this game comes by getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with Miami. The Canes are certainly in line for some regression offensively after scoring 85+ points and knocking down 34, 31 an 29 field goals over their last three games. Keep in mind, this is the same team that narrowly avoided the upset against Drake in the opening round, scoring only 63 points on 17-of-56 shooting in that contest. Lost in UConn's tremendous run offensively is the fact that it has been playing exceptional defense. You would have to go back nine games, all the way to February 25th against St. John's, to find the last time it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 24 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with Miami playing away from home after allowing 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 134.9 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 7-1 with UConn playing away from home after winning three or more games in a row ATS this season, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 132.4 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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03-31-23 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 231 | 138-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Kings scored 120 points without barely breaking a sweat in their 120-80 win here in Portland two nights ago. If this game is even remotely more competitive (as I expect it to be), there's a good chance we see Sacramento absolutely go off offensively. The Blazers truly can't be any worse than they were in Wednesday's game. On a positive note, they did get off 93 field goal attempts so the scoring opportunities were there and should continue to be there on Friday, noting that the Kings have allowed 91, 88, 92, 89, 91, 86 and 93 field goal attempts over their last seven games, still yielding 119 points in the lone outlier in which they held the T'Wolves to 86. Prior to Wednesday's contest, Sacramento had allowed six consecutive opponents to make good on at least 41 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 12-4 with the Blazers coming off a loss by 15 points or more this season, resulting in an average total of 234.7 points scored in that situation. Take the over (8*). |
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03-31-23 | Pistons +5 v. Rockets | 115-121 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this game on Friday. The Pistons have at least continued to play some defense, allowing 38, 44, 41, 45 and 39 made field goals over their last five games but in the three occasions where the opposition got into the 40's, they also got off 92 or more field goal attempts. It's a different story for Houston. It has allowed a ridiculous 50 or more made field goals in two of its last four games. On the flip side, the Rockets have knocked down 42 or more field goals in consecutive games but haven't hit 40+ in three straight contests since doing so in five straight games from March 9th to 17th - a stretch that saw them win three games outright (they've lost seven straight games since). Noting that they're 49-30 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, we'll back the revenge-minded Pistons here (they lost the first meeting this season by three points at home in late-January). Take Detroit (8*). |
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03-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 220.5 | 130-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results last time out and in the case of the Cavs, back-to-back 'unders'. Cleveland could be missing Jarrett Allen for a second straight game which is critical to their defensive play and rebounding in particular. I suspect if he misses the Knicks will afford themselves a great deal more scoring opportunities after being limited to only 76 field goal attempts against Miami on Wednesday. Of course, New York has its own injury issues with Julius Randle now sidelined. The Knicks undoubtedly have the scoring depth to pick up the slack, however. They'll need to 'keep up' with the Cavs here, noting that Cleveland has made good on 40 or more field goals in eight of its last nine games with the only exception coming in a blowout win over the Rockets where it eased off the gas in the fourth quarter (we won with the 'under' in that game). While the Knicks did limit the Heat to just 35-of-79 shooting on Wednesday, they had previously allowed five straight and 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 40 field goals. This has been a low-scoring series recently with the last two meetings staying 'under' the total. It's worth noting though that we haven't seen three or more consecutive matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total since 2017-18. Take the over (8*). |
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03-31-23 | Mets v. Marlins +105 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over New York at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Mets took the opener of this series last night as the two starters duelled for five innings before things broke open in the second half of the game. Here, I look for the Marlins to answer back with Jesus Luzardo taking the ball against David Peterson of the Mets in a lefty-lefty matchup. Luzardo had a fine Spring, posting a 4.34 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go along with a 19:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 2/3 innings of work. I would put Luzardo in the undervalued category after he recorded a 3.12 FIP and 1.04 WHIP in just north of 100 innings pitched last season. His counterpart, David Peterson, didn't give up a single earned run in the Spring but also pitched just 12 innings, issuing eight walks along the way. Peterson, like Luzardo, quietly had an impressive 2022 campaign, posting a 3.64 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. With that said, he allowed more hits, more walks and recorded fewer strikeouts per nine innings compared to Luzardo. Also note that the Marlins got to see him three times, seemingly getting better each time they faced him, culminating with a 6-3 win here at home in which they chased him from the game before the end of the fourth inning. The Mets saw Luzardo twice last season and he was more effective in his second outing against them, holding them to just two earned runs on four hits over six frames. The bullpens are pretty much a wash in my opinion and both had to work around three innings in yesterday's contest. Take Miami (10*). |
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03-30-23 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 236.5 | Top | 140-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks check in off consecutive high-scoring affairs in road wins over the Pistons and Pacers but should face a great deal more resistance in this back-to-back spot against a rested Celtics squad. Boston is coming off a high-scoring game of its own as it inexplicably allowed 130 points in a rout at the hands of the short-handed Wizards in Washington two nights ago. Perhaps that result was to be expected after the Celtics were lulled into a sense of complacency following three straight blowout wins. Here, I look for Boston to tighten things up, noting that it has still held five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While you wouldn't know it by their last few games, the Bucks can play some defense, especially here at home where they've limited the opposition to 42-of-93 shooting on average this season. In games that project as ultra-competitive (with the line between +3 and -3 as is the case here at the time of writing), the Bucks have posted a 17-29 o/u record over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 223.4 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-30-23 | Rangers v. Devils -124 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New Jersey over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. While I've been high on the Rangers in the second half of the season that doesn't mean that I won't look for spots to fade the Blueshirts. Off three consecutive wins, I see this as an ideal spot to go against New York and we'll do so by backing a desperate Devils team that has run into some resistance going 2-6 over their last eight contests. It's certainly not time to push the panic button in the swamp. New Jersey has already clinched a playoff spot and remains within striking distance of the first-place Hurricanes in the Metropolitan Division. The Rangers completed a two-game road sweep of the Hurricanes and Panthers last week but are just 5-5 in their last 10 contests away from home. Off an ugly 5-1 loss on Long Island two nights ago, look for the Devils to bounce back on home ice. Take New Jersey (10*). |
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03-29-23 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 235 | 120-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take advantage of the reasonable total being offered here thanks to the Kings coming off consecutive 'under' results and the Blazers riding a three-game 'under' streak into Wednesday's contest. The Kings are healthy again and figure to go off offensively against a Blazers squad that has been matador-like since losing the bulk of its starters to injuries, allowing 48, 41 and 49 made field goals over their last three games. The outlier over that stretch came in a contest where they still allowed 118 points against the Thunder. While Portland has unsurprisingly struggled to generate consistent offense without the likes of Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons, there is reason for optimism entering this matchup. The Kings have been vulnerable defensively in recent games, lit up for 46, 49, 48, 47 and 44 made field goals over their last five contests. There's a fairly high probability they'll struggle to ramp up the defensive intensity in this uninspiring matchup when you consider Portland could only muster 90 points against New Orleans last time out. I simply feel this total will prove too low noting the Blazers have seen more than three consecutive games stay 'under' the total only once previously this season with that four-game 'under' streak coming back in late-December. Take the over (8*). |
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03-29-23 | Lakers v. Bulls UNDER 225.5 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. It was a struggle for the Lakers to just get shots off, let alone knock them down in Lebron James' return to the lineup on Sunday against Chicago. Los Angeles hoisted up only 75 field goal attempts in that double-digit loss, yet the game still found its way 'over' the total. It's worth noting that the Lakers haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since way back on February 4th and 7th. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four of their last six games, getting off 78 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. The Bulls are coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against the Clippers in the back half of a back-to-back on Monday. Perhaps they were a little too 'fat and happy' after winning the first two games on their road trip in lopsided fashion. Here, I expect Chicago to lock back in defensively, noting that it has still held 16 of its last 22 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, it's not easy to speed up the Bulls offense, noting that even in a game where they trailed most of the way against the Clippers on Monday, they still hoisted up only 82 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 16-4 with the Lakers playing on the road off a double-digit home loss as a favorite, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 24-14 with the Bulls coming off a loss this season and 15-6 when that defeat came on the road. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB OVER 151.5 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah Valley and UAB at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in Utah Valley's 'upset' win over Cincinnati in the quarter-final round of the NIT last week as that contest stayed just 'under' the total thanks to a miserable shooting performance from the Bearcats (27-of-79 from the field). I think it's notable that the Wolverines allowed Cincinnati to hoist up just shy of 80 field goal attempts in that game. They figure to face a similar up-tempo approach from UAB here, noting that the Blazers have gotten off 63, 71, 66 and 64 FG attempts over their last four games yet somehow all four of those contests stayed 'under' the total, only serving to provide us with a reasonably-priced total here. In fact, UAB ranks 32nd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, just 10 spots ahead of Utah Valley. The Blazers have allowed each of their last five opponents to get off at least 60 FG attempts and Utah Valley is well-positioned to take advantage. The Wolverines have knocked down 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34, 33 and 25 field goals over their last eight contests with the two outliers coming in games where they still scored 72 and 74 points. Utah Valley comes off that 'under' result against Cincinnati but hasn't posted consecutive 'unders' over its last six contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-28-23 | Kings +120 v. Flames | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I have no problem going back to the well fading the Flames after missing with the Sharks on the puck-line here in Calgary on Saturday (a late empty-net goal cost us that win). Note that Calgary is just 3-7 off a home win in which it scored four or more goals this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile the Kings are 16-9 under head coach Todd McLellan after allowing six goals or more in their previous contest, which is the situation here off Sunday’s wild 7-6 win over St. Louis. The Kings took the last meeting between these two teams by an 8-2 score at home. The Flames would love to get their revenge here but I think they’re a team going nowhere right now and will gladly fade them in a favored role. Take Los Angeles (9*). |
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03-28-23 | Magic +8.5 v. Grizzlies | 108-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm expecting a tightly-contested affair between these non-conference opponents on Tuesday as the Magic look to extend their three-game winning streak while the Grizzlies aim for their seventh consecutive victory. The Grizzlies have been red hot offensively, knocking down 45 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. On the flip side, however, they also seem to be developing some bad habits defensively, having yielded 48, 47 and 45 made field goals over their last three contests. After facing the likes of the Rockets (twice) and Hawks over their last three games, the Magic might just resemble the early-2000's Pistons to the Grizzlies here. Orlando has held three of its last four opponents to 37 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Magic offense has thrived, knocking down 40 or more field goals in each of their last 13 contests. Take Orlando (8*). |
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03-28-23 | Canucks v. Blues -105 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Vancouver at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Simple fade of the Canucks here as they come off a weekend road sweep in Dallas and Chicago. Vancouver had to hang on in the third period in both of those games but ultimately prevailed. Here, I expect the Canucks to be in tough against a Blues team that certainly hasn’t quit on the season despite being out of contention (much like Vancouver). On Sunday St. Louis fell just short in a wild 7-6 loss in Los Angeles, ending a streak of five straight games in which it collected at least a point. While the Blues are surprisingly healthy at this late stage of the season, the Canucks are banged-up and I don’t expect a peak performance from them at the end of this three-game road trip. Take St. Louis (8*). |
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03-28-23 | Cavs v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavaliers are riding a four-game winning streak, having gone 3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think that streak comes to an end on Tuesday, however, as they face a tougher challenge in the Hawks after going against the Wizards, Nets (twice) and Rockets over their last four games. Atlanta enters this game on a tear offensively. It has knocked down at least 44 field goals in an incredible eight straight and 10 of its last 11 games overall. Of course, the Hawks defense is far from elite and they've also given up 45, 52 and 48 made field goals over their last three contests. I think they catch a bit of a break here, however, as they go up against a slow-paced Cavs squad that has topped out at 42 made field goals over their last three games and hasn't hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts since March 6th. While Atlanta is just 3-3 over its last six games, it hasn't lost consecutive contests since March 11th and 13th (it comes off a loss against Memphis here). Also note that the Hawks have dropped the cash in consecutive games only once this entire month (7-6 ATS in March). Take Atlanta (10*). |
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03-27-23 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 220 | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Bulls are as locked-in defensively as any team in the NBA right now having held five straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. They figure to continue their strong play at that end of the floor here as they take on the Paul George-less Clippers on Monday. Since losing George to injury last week, the Clips have played twice, splitting those two games and getting off just 84 and 75 field goal attempts. They actually shot considerably well in both contests but I don't expect a similar story to unfold here. Los Angeles is favored for a reason in this spot, though, with Chicago unlikely to shoot the lights out the way it has in the first two games of its current road trip. Despite scoring 124 and 118 points over their last two games, the Bulls have still gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight contests. I can't help but think Los Angeles will be set on keeping the pace to a minimum here after allowing the Pelicans to shoot 51-of-96 from the field in Saturday's blowout loss. Note that the only previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 211 points as the Clips won (and covered) in Chicago, limiting the Bulls to only 77 FG attempts in that victory. We're working with a lower posted total this time around, but I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. Take the under (8*). |
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03-27-23 | Seattle Kraken +118 v. Wild | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Wild sit in first place in the Central Division but the Avalanche (and the Stars) are certainly applying some pressure with both teams sitting just one point behind. Meanwhile, Seattle has to like where it sits in its second NHL campaign, currently holding down the top Wild Card spot with a seven-point cushion over the first team out of contention in the Calgary Flames. Note that the Kraken are only three points behind the Oilers for third place in the Pacific Division, holding a game-in-hand. Seattle didn't just beat Nashville on Saturday, it absolutely crushed it, scoring seven goals while outshooting the Preds by a 39-16 margin. The Kraken have scored 17 goals over their last four games. Meanwhile, Minnesota comes off a 3-1 home win over the lowly Blackhawks. I haven't been overly impressed by the Wild lately. They're 5-3 over their last eight games but none of the victories have been all that impressive, with the exception being a 2-1 win in New Jersey. They've lost two of their last three games on home ice and average just 2.9 goals per game here this season. In stark contrast, the Kraken check in averaging an impressive 3.8 goals per game on the road this season, where they've gone 24-13. Take Seattle (8*). |
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03-26-23 | Rockets v. Cavs UNDER 225 | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Rockets shot a blistering 51.6% and 54% from the field in consecutive losses in Memphis earlier this week but I expect nothing of the sort as they continue their road trip (and likely their losing streak) in Cleveland on Sunday. There's really been nothing special about the Rockets offense lately, they simply had a couple of strong performances against an opponent that didn't necessarily take them all that seriously (in the first game of the two-game set in particular). Note that Houston has still been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of its last seven contests. The Cavs rallied for a win in Brooklyn last time out - their third win in a row. Note that Cleveland has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in eight straight games. Even in their most recent game, where they trailed much of the way and needed to stage a late-game comeback, they still weren't all that interested in really pushing the pace. Defensively, the Cavs are locked-in right now having held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals and nine of their last 11 foes to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. The only previous time they faced the Rockets this season they yielded just 76 FG attempts in a 113-95 road victory. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Rockets coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 221.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-29 with Cleveland coming off an 'over' result over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 213.9 points. Take the under (8*). |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas UNDER 149.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Texas at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. While I can understand the logic behind this total sitting in the high-140's on Sunday, I believe it will prove too high. Miami comes off consecutive 'over' results. It hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since January 11th to 16th - the only previous time this season it produced such a streak. Texas had its seven-game 'under' streak snapped in its win over Xavier on Friday. The Longhorns haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since February 6th and 11th. Texas has been on fire offensive, knocking down 31 or more field goals in each of its last four contests. It figures to be tested here, however, noting that while Miami's offense has impressed, it's defensive play has perhaps been even better, holding all three opponents in this tournament to 26 or fewer made field goals. Despite allowing Alabama to get off 64 field goal attempts on Friday, it still allowed just 24 made field goals. The Hurricanes have made good on 29 or more field goals in four of their last five games overall. Keep in mind, Texas hasn't allowed an opponent to reach that number since way back on February 18th against Oklahoma. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the Canes playing away from home after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 140 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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03-26-23 | Mavs -10 v. Hornets | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. A quick revenge spot for the down-trodden Mavericks here as they look to snap a three-game losing streak and avenge Friday's stunning nine-point home loss against the Hornets. Likely to have their full compliments of players at their disposal, I expect the Mavs to put forth a much sharper performance than we saw on Friday. Keep in mind, that last game against the Hornets came on the heels of consecutive gut-wrenching losses to the Grizzlies and Warriors (by a combined six points). The Mavs overlooked the lowly Hornets, plain and simple. They won't here as this road trip will only get tougher with stops in Indiana, Philadelphia, Miami and Atlanta on deck. The Hornets are without Terry Rozier while Kelly Oubre continues to battle through a shoulder injury (he is expected to play). Here, we'll note that Dallas is 19-5 ATS when playing on the road off an outright upset loss over the last three seasons. Take Dallas (8*). |
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03-25-23 | Bucks v. Nuggets -2.5 | 106-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We got the result we wanted from the Bucks last night, winning with them in Utah and also getting a lopsided final score that sets us up nicely for a play on the Nuggets on Saturday. Sweeping a back-to-back set in altitude in Salt Lake City and Denver is never easy and I don't expect that to be any different for the mighty Bucks. Milwaukee is rolling offensively right now but almost certainly in for some regression after knocking down 51 and 55 field goals in its last two games. Note that it got off 98 and 99 field goal attempts in those two contests but Denver has held four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. The Nuggets have yielded just 39, 41, 38 and 44 made field goals in their last four contests with the high-water mark coming in a 118-104 win over the Wizards last time out. Offensively, Denver is well-positioned to go off in this game. It has made good on 42 or more field goals in each of its last seven games, finally fully healthy. The Bucks have yielded at least 93 FG attempts in an incredible 11 straight games with six of their opponents getting off at least 100. The Nuggets did drop the first meeting between these two teams this season but that came in Milwaukee, without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, and it came by just eight points as a 10-point underdog. Take Denver (8*). |
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03-25-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga OVER 153.5 | 82-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Gonzaga at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. While I'm not a big proponent of backing the 'over' in the Elite Eight after the Sweet 16 proved so high-scoring (six of eight games went 'over' the total), I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough. Gonzaga is approaching uncharted territory defensively right now as it has matched a season-high by holding eight straight opponents to 30 made field goals of fewer. The only previous time it reached that mark it allowed 81 points on 31 made field goals in a game that totalled 169 points against BYU in mid-February. Note that the Bulldogs have allowed more than 30 made field goals on seven previous occasions this season and those contests have totalled 167, 172, 190, 199, 157, 169 and 185 points. Connecticut figures to test the Zags defense here, noting that the Huskies are arguably the hottest offensive team still playing in this tournament. Since February 22nd, they've knocked down 30 or more field goals in five of nine games with the low-water mark being 25 made field goals in a game where they still scored 71 points. Defensively, UConn has also been on point but has certainly benefited from the opposition it has faced in this tourney. First, it went against an overmatched MAAC squad in Iona. Then came a matchup with slow-paced Saint Mary's and finally an injury-plagued Arkansas squad that looked lost after the first few minutes on Thursday. Here, I do think we'll see the Zags give the Huskies a stiff test and I think that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). |
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03-25-23 | Nets v. Heat UNDER 222.5 | 129-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Nets 'over' in the front half of their two-game set with the Cavs earlier this week (the second matchup went 'over' the total as well). I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Brooklyn heads to Miami to face the surging Heat on Saturday, however. Note that the Nets squeezed about as much as they could out of their offense last time out but still produced 'only' 114 points in a narrow loss to Cleveland. Brooklyn has now been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of its last five games. On a positive note, the Nets have topped out at 42 made field goals allowed over their last four contests, limiting all four of those opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Heat have settled back into their preferred style and that involves a methodical pace as they've hoisted up 82 or fewer FG attempts in five straight games. Only twice over that stretch did they manage to knock down more than 38 field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back four games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off more than 82 FG attempts. Take the under (8*). |
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03-25-23 | Sharks +1.5 v. Flames | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Calgary at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We successfully faded the Flames in their 3-2 loss to the Golden Knights on Thursday and we'll do so again here, albeit on the puck-line with the underdog Sharks. San Jose comes off a 7-2 beatdown in Vancouver two nights ago. Keep in mind, it is just one-game removed from an overtime loss against the red hot Oilers in Edmonton so it's not as if the Sharks have completely folded at this late stage of the season. Here, San Jose will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak in this series. Note that the Flames hadn't won three consecutive meetings with the Sharks since 2015 prior to their current streak. To find the last time Calgary took four straight games against San Jose you would have to go all the way back to 2008. That's not to mention the fact that the Flames last three victories over the Sharks have all come by at least two goals. Note that San Jose is a respectable 17-15 when playing on the road after allowing three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that spot. As bad as things have gone for them this season, they're 9-4 when playing on the road after allowing four or more goals in back-to-back games, which is also the situation here, outscoring the opposition by 0.6 goals on average along the way. We can even take it one step farther, noting that San Jose has won all four games when playing away from home after giving up five or more goals in each of its last two contests this season, as is the case here. The Sharks have outscored opponents by an impressive average margin of 2.0 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Flames season is quickly circling the drain at this point and we'll note that they're just 8-15 when coming off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that spot. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (8*). |
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03-24-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Lakers | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. We'll fade the Lakers off their big home win over the Suns two nights ago. That marked Los Angeles' second straight victory but it remains just 1-2-1 ATS over its last four contests. The Lakers have had a tough time just getting shots off lately, hoisting up 84, 78 and 70 field goal attempts over their last three games and now go up against a Thunder defense that can certainly hang and figures to be in a foul mood after allowing the Clippers to connect on 42-of-90 field goal attempts, without Paul George no less, in a lopsided affair last night. Of course, perhaps a letdown was to be expected from the Thunder after they notched a 101-100 victory over the same Clips two nights earlier. This will be Oklahoma City's third straight game in Los Angeles and it has looked reasonably comfortable - even in last night's loss it still made good on 41-of-93 FG attempts, the fifth time in the last six games it managed to get off at least 93 FG attempts. It remains to be seen whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be able to play on Friday as he recovers from an abdominal injury. We'll treat it as a bonus if he can go but will make this play assuming he'll be sidelined. The Thunder have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games following a loss. They haven't dropped consecutive games since enduring a five-game skid from February 23rd to March 1st. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a woeful 4-15 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home win over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by just 2.0 points on average in that spot. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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03-24-23 | Bucks -8.5 v. Jazz | Top | 144-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Jazz are in tough right now with both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen sidelined. They did manage to win without that duo on Monday against the Kings but followed it up with a double-digit loss to the Blazers on Wednesday (with Markkanen in the lineup). Utah is now in uncharted territory offensively as it has scored 115 points or more in eight straight games - its longest such streak of the season. Here, it will be tested, however, as the Bucks have held three of their last four opponents under that number. Milwaukee has limited only three of its last seven opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals but that's not all bad when you consider the shot volume it has been yielding. The Bucks have allowed at least 93 field goal attempts in each of their last nine games. Only one of Milwaukee's last six opponents has managed to shoot better than 44.4% from the field. The Jazz check in having allowed 40 or more made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. The only occasion where they didn't over that stretch came in a game where they held Miami to just 79 FG attempts but still gave up 119 points in a losing effort. The Bucks, even without Khris Middleton, should be able to get loose given Utah has yielded 93 or more FG attempts in four of its last six contests. One thing Milwaukee doesn't lack in is scoring depth so the absence of Middleton can certainly be managed. Here, we'll note that the Bucks are a long-term 53-32 ATS when playing on the road as a favorite of between 6.5 and 12.5 points, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Jazz are a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, allowing a whopping 121.4 points per game in that spot. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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03-24-23 | Miami-FL v. Houston UNDER 138.5 | Top | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 7:15 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Houston's second round rout of Auburn and also cashed the same play in Miami's stunning lopsided win over Indiana. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in as the Hurricanes and Cougars meet in Sweet 16 action on Friday, however. As a considerable underdog, I think Miami will have a keen interest in limiting the number of possessions in this one. Keep in mind, the Canes check in sporting a defense that ranks outside of the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) not to mention the fact they're up against a Houston squad that sits an impressive eighth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Of course, the Cougars should be easily convinced to keep this one at a methodical pace, noting that they rank 342nd (out of 364 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Only one team remaining in this tournament ranks higher than Houston in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and that's Alabama. Note that while the Cougars did hang 81 points on Auburn last time out, they needed 60 field goal attempts to get there. Houston has still gotten off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last seven games. Meanwhile, Miami is almost certainly in for a letdown here after connecting on 34-of-70 field goal attempts in its rout of Indiana. The Canes jumped ahead by a considerable margin early and were able to dictate the pace from there. I don't anticipate them being nearly as successful in doing so against Kelvin Sampson's Cougars. Note that only one of Houston's last six opponents and two of its last nine have managed to knock down more than 20 field goals. While Miami's defense isn't on nearly the same level, it has proven capable of stepping up. A dominant defensive effort against Duke back in February comes to mind. Also note that the Canes have at least limited four of their last five foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Finally, I'll point out that Miami hasn't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since late January-early February. The same goes for Houston. Take the under (10*). |
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03-24-23 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 228 | 124-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The last time these two teams met in January in San Antonio we saw a closing total of 240 points. That game failed to reach that number but did surpass the total we're working with in Friday's rematch. Of course, injuries are playing a big role in the adjustment of this total. San Antonio has been flooring a makeshift roster on any given night due to injury (tanking) management. Meanwhile, the Wizards are without two of their best offensive threats in Kyle Kuzma and Bradley Beal. With that being said, I think we see a 'sling-shot' effect from the Wiz offense here. They've actually knocked down 41, 42 and 44 field goals over their last three games with the latter performance coming without Kuzma and Beal. They only managed to reach 104 points in a loss to the Nuggets last time out as Denver led most of the way and was able to limit the pace (Washington got off only 84 field goal attempts). While we haven't seen it lately, I do think Washington would prefer to go up-tempo and will undoubtedly be afforded that opportunity against a hapless Spurs defense that has yielded 95 or more field goal attempts to the opposition in five of its last seven games. On the flip side, San Antonio is coming off consecutive dismal offensive showings, scoring just 84 and 94 points in blowout losses in New Orleans and Milwaukee. Note that the Spurs are expected to have a number of key offensive contributors back in the lineup on Friday, including Keldon Johnson. San Antonio has hoisted up 93 or more FG attempts in three of its last four contests while the Wizards have allowed 48, 48, 43 and 42 made field goals over their last four games. Finally, I'll point out that while the Spurs enter on a three-game 'under' streak, they've yet to see four straight contests stay 'under' the total this season with the 'over' going 3-0 on the previous three occasions where they followed three 'unders' in a row. Take the over (8*). |
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03-23-23 | Golden Knights +122 v. Flames | Top | 3-2 | Win | 122 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Flames throttled the Golden Knights by a 7-2 score, on the road no less, when these two teams last met on March 16th. I look for Vegas to get its revenge on Thursday as it goes for its third win in a row. Note that Calgary has taken consecutive meetings against Vegas only once since the Golden Knights joined the league in 2017. That came all the way back in 2018. The recent loss to the Flames was the lone blemish on an otherwise flawless record for the Knights going back to March 9th. Vegas checks in 6-1 over its last seven contests. Meanwhile, the Flames continue to struggle. They are coming off a win on Tuesday but that came at the expense of the lowly Ducks. Calgary has managed to post consecutive wins just once since January 26th. In fact, the Flames longest previous winning streak this season lasted only three games, indicating what a difficult campaign it has been. The Knights know that the finale of this western Canadian road trip will be tough as they'll face the red hot Oilers in Edmonton on Saturday. I look for them to assure themselves of a winning trip with a victory on Thursday. Take Vegas (10*). |
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03-23-23 | Arkansas v. Connecticut OVER 139.5 | 65-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arkansas and Connecticut at 7:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Arkansas' SEC Tournament swan song against Texas A&M two weeks ago and since then, the Razorbacks have rattled off two more 'under' results in NCAA Tournament action. I look for that three-game 'under' streak to come to an end on Thursday, however, as the Hogs take on Connecticut in a Sweet 16 matchup. Arkansas staged an improbable upset of Kansas last Saturday despite getting just four points combined on 1-of-10 shooting from pro prospects Nick Smith Jr. and Anthony Black. Smith contributed only four points in the first two tourney games. Of course, he hasn't necessarily been the same player since returning from a knee injury that has plagued him for much of the season but the fact is, he scored in double-figures in seven straight games leading up to this tournament so there's reason to be confident that he can chip in a whole lot more here on the second weekend of the tournament. Black re-aggravated a foot injury against Kansas but all indications are that he'll play here. He's been playing through the pain and entered the Kansas game having scored in double-figures in four of the last five contests. Again, expect more out of him offensively in this one even if the foot injury does limit his quickness (I believe it's more of a concern at the defensive end of the floor). On the flip side, Connecticut has been one of the hottest offensive teams in the country in recent weeks, knocking down 26 or more field goals in eight straight games and scoring 87 or more points on four occasions in the last month alone. The Huskies were able to bully overmatched Iona and Saint Mary's offenses last weekend but I expect them to have their hands full here. Note that Arkansas, even with its key injuries, has made good on more than 20 field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 20 games overall. Defensively, the Hogs have allowed six of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals with the lone exception coming in their NCAA Tourney opener against Illinois - a game that still reached 136 total points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with UConn coming off a game in which it allowed 55 points or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 154 points. The 'over' is also 17-8 with the Huskies having held consecutive opponents to 65 points or less over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 145.1 points in that spot. Take the over (8*). |
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03-23-23 | Knicks v. Magic UNDER 229.5 | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results but neither of those games necessarily saw the pace to warrant those outcomes. Last night, both the Knicks and Heat shot the lights out in New York's 127-120 loss in Miami. New York will have a difficult time reproducing that performance here, noting that it averages 'only' 110.7 points per game when playing the second of back-to-back nights over the last two seasons (those 22 contests have totalled an average of 217.9 points). After getting off 90 or more field goal attempts in three of four games from March 5th to 11th, the Knicks have hoisted up 88 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last five contests. The Magic were involved in a relatively high-scoring game against the struggling Wizards two nights ago. Neither team got off more than 83 FG attempts in that one. Orlando has been limited to 86 or fewer FG attempts in three of its last four contests. To say that the Magic have struggled offensively against the Knicks going back to the start of last season would be an understatement. They've knocked down just 37, 36, 30 and 39 field goals in the last four meetings, topping out at 104 points in those games. Take the under (8*). |
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03-22-23 | Suns -1 v. Lakers | 111-122 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I like the spot here for the struggling Suns as they check in having lost four of their last five games SU and all five ATS but all is not lost. They're still sitting in second place in the Pacific Division and fourth in the Western Conference. You would assume Phoenix would be struggling mightily at the offensive end of the floor with Kevin Durant and now DeAndre Ayton sidelined but that hasn't necessarily been the case. The Suns put up 120 points in Sunday's narrow loss to the Thunder and have knocked down more than 40 field goals in an incredible nine straight games and 40 or more in 14 consecutive contests. The issue has been their defensive play but I believe that can be rectified in fairly short order. Here, we'll note that the Suns have allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (54-game sample size) and 107.2 ppg when that loss came on the road (33-game sample size), as is the case here. The Lakers have topped out at 111 points over their last three games - that performance coming in the 'Austin Reaves game' on Sunday against the road-weary Magic. Note that Los Angeles has been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of its last four contests. Like the Suns, the Lakers have also had a tough time defensively in recent weeks, allowing 46, 42, 42, 47, 40 and 41 made field goals over their last six games. Note that they're a woeful 13-27 ATS when playing at home after a home win over the last three seasons. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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03-22-23 | Utah Valley v. Cincinnati OVER 147.5 | Top | 74-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Utah Valley State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a couple of predictably low-scoring affairs in NIT quarter-final action last night but I expect a much different story to unfold as Cincinnati and Utah Valley State do battle in the second half of Wednesday's double-header. Utah Valley State succeeded in speeding up a favored Colorado team that probably would have preferred a slower tempo (with its 30th-ranked defense) on Sunday, pulling away for a convincing 81-69 victory in Boulder. I don't think the Wolverines will have any difficult coaxing red hot Cincinnati into an up-tempo affair here, noting that the Bearcats rank 114th (out of 364 Division I teams) in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The difference is, Cincinnati can take advantage of that fast pace, noting that it ranks an impressive 46th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). The Bearcats have incredibly knocked down at least 29 field goals in five of their last six games with the lone outlier coming in their conference championship game against Houston - one of, if not the best defensive team in the country. For their part, the Wolverines enter red hot offensively as well having made good on 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34 and 33 field goals over their last seven contests. Cincinnati has actually seen each of its last four games stay 'under' the total which means it is approaching uncharted territory, noting its longest previous 'under' streak this season lasted five games, that coming back in January. We're starting to see the totals creep downward as a result of the Bearcats 'under' streak, noting that their last two games saw closing numbers of 155 and 150. I believe tonight's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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03-22-23 | 76ers -3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a double-overtime game two nights ago in Philadelphia with the Bulls pulling out a 109-105 victory. The 76ers haven't shot remotely close to as poorly as they did in that contest since back on February 27th in a 101-99 home loss to the Heat. Note that they followed up that dismal performance with a 119-96 victory in Miami two nights later. I expect the Sixers to bounce back nicely here as well, noting that they're 22-12 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.4 points per game. The Bulls are coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, which means they're approaching uncharted territory as they've put together a streak longer than that only once previously, and that lasted just four games back in early January. While Chicago has been winning it has been increasingly reliant on the do of Zach LaVine and Demar Derozan to shoulder the offensive load. I'm confident we'll see the Sixers - an elite defensive team - make the necessary adjustments against that duo here. Even in Monday's overtime loss, the Sixers still held Chicago to fewer than 40 made field goals (39). That marked the fourth time in their last five games they limited the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Philadelphia has knocked down at least 40 field goals in nine of its last 11 contests. James Harden is questionable to play on Wednesday but even if he can't go, I'm confident others can pick up the slack, most notably De'Anthony Melton who has scored in double-figures in five of the last seven games. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia is 18-8 ATS when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bulls are a long-term 113-155 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS victories. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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03-21-23 | Golden Knights -135 v. Canucks | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Canucks swept their weekend set in California, defeating both the Kings and Ducks to improve to 7-1 over their last eight games. Of course that wasn't really part of the plan as this was a team that offloaded talent prior to the trade deadline and was once thought to be a contender in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes. Their recent run has put any talk of that to bed and while the Canucks are admittedly playing well right now, I expect them to have their hands full with the revenge-minded Golden Knights on Tuesday. Vegas dropped its most recent matchup with Vancouver by a 5-1 score on home ice way back in November. The road team has actually won four of the last five meetings in this series. Here, we'll note that Vegas has played its best hockey on the road this season where it has gone 21-12 while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 goals. In stark contrast, the Canucks are 16-18 on home ice where they've been outscored by 0.4 goals on average. I think the Knights made one of the more savvy pre-trade deadline deals acquiring Ivan Barbashev from the Blues in exchange for prospect Zach Dean. Barbashev has fit in nicely on the Knights top line alongside Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault. The Knights also boast one of the strongest blue lines in the NHL in my opinion - certainly among the best in terms of their top two D-pairings with Alec Martinez and Alex Pietrangelo followed by Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore. Jonathan Quick likely gets the nod between the pipes on Tuesday and while he had a bad game against the Flames in his most recent start, the Knights have gone 4-1 in his four starts since joining the team. Take Vegas (8*). |
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03-21-23 | Wisconsin +5 v. Oregon | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Wisconsin plus the points over Oregon at 9 pm et on Tuesday. As high as I've been on Oregon at times this season, I think the time has come to fade the Ducks on Tuesday as they check in as considerable favorites against Wisconsin in NIT quarter-final action. First, it's certainly worth noting that Oregon is dealing with a cluster of injuries at the moment with no fewer than three key contributors questionable to return to the court for Tuesday's game. That's notable especially at this time of year when energy and depth tends to be depleted. The Ducks absences didn't cost them against the likes of Cal-Irvine and UCF but likely will here. Note that Oregon was fortunate that UCF had an off shooting night on Sunday as it made good on just 19-of-62 field goal attempts. The Ducks are playing with fire right now at the defensive end of the floor, having yielded 60, 80 and 62 FG attempts over their last three contests. Wisconsin figures to take advantage, noting that it is playing some of its best offensive basketball of the season now that it's out of the Big Ten. In fact, going back to February 22nd, the Badgers have made good on 25, 30, 23, 27, 21, 25 and 27 field goals and that's despite getting off 58 or fewer FG attempts in five of those seven contests. Defensively, it's been a bit more challenging but the good news is, the Badgers have limited their opponents' scoring opportunities for the most part, allowing 55 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last five games. I do think they can effectively shorten this game with their methodical tempo, which is what you generally want to see from an underdog in this pointspread range. Only 15 teams have faced a tougher schedule than Wisconsin this season (according to KenPom), noting that the Badgers faced the likes of Dayton, Kansas, USC and Marquette in non-conference action this season, going 3-1 in those four games in particular with the lone loss coming by a single point against Kansas. Oregon, on the other hand, stepped up in class and lost by 10 points against Houston, 24 at the hands of Connecticut and four against Michigan State. Take Wisconsin (10*). |
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03-21-23 | Cavs v. Nets OVER 218 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is the lowest total on Tuesday's NBA board and I believe it will prove too low. The Nets have seen each of their last three contests stay 'under' the total, thanks in large part to their own putrid offensive production. I think they're a far better offensive team than they've shown lately, however. They curiously waved the white flag late in Sunday's game against the Nuggets but I look for them to respond favorably here, noting that they're perhaps catching the Cavs at the right time with Cleveland having allowed five of its last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. The absence of Jarrett Allen has contributed to that and he is expected to return here, but I still think the Nets offense can do some damage, noting that they're more of an outside shooting team, not likely to force much into the teeth of the Cavs defense inside. Cleveland's offense is likely to go off in this spot. The Cavs have made good on 40 or more field goals in five straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. Meanwhile, the Nets defense has proven vulnerable, allowing 44, 48, 45, 45, 32 and 42 field goals over their last six contests. The outlier over that stretch came last week against Sacramento with the Kings struggling to find their shooting legs in the second of back-to-backs off a last-second win in Chicago the night previous. The Nets are approaching uncharted territory off three straight 'under' results here, noting that their longest 'under' streak since their pre-trade deadline dealings lasted four games but two of those four contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. You would have to go back six matchups in this series to find the last time the two teams didn't at least get into the 220's. Take the over (10*). |
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03-20-23 | Flames v. Kings UNDER 6 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams check into this key division matchup off a loss and in the case of the Flames it was a wild one as they fell by a 6-5 score in overtime on home ice against the Stars on Saturday. The Kings dropped an extra time decision at home as well, in a shootout at the hands of the Canucks. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 152-112 with the Kings playing at home off a home loss. While the 'over' is still 36-26-8 in all Kings games this season, we have seen signs of them reverting back to 'normal' (I use that term as they've generally been a solid 'under' bet in recent years) lately with the 'over' cashing in just two of their last eight contests. The Flames have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last three games. Only once this season have more than three consecutive games involving Calgary go 'over' the total with that five-game streak coming back in December. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-3 with the Flames playing on the road off an overtime loss over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is also 15-5 with Calgary playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals in that spot. The last two meetings between the Flames and Kings have gone 'over' the total and that's notable as we haven't seen three straight matchups in this series go 'over' since way back in 2007-08 when four consecutive matchups surpassed the total. The term playoff-like atmosphere generally lends itself to tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring hockey and I do think it applies here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-20-23 | Wolves v. Knicks OVER 227.5 | Top | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We got the result we wanted from the T'Wolves on Saturday as they scored only 107 points in a lopsided loss in Toronto, clearly reeling after Anthony Edwards suffered a scary injury the night previous in Chicago. Shockingly, Edwards was out of the walking boot on Sunday and is listed a day-to-day. He's unlikely to play on Monday but I do expect the T'Wolves offense to bounce back just the same. Minnesota has averaged an impressive 121.4 points per game when playing on the road in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and the 'over' is an incredible 14-1 when it plays on the road in a three-in-four situation over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 247.0 points in that spot. The Knicks are red hot off three straight wins, knocking down a consistent 42, 42 and 41 field goals over that stretch. They only figure to get stronger in Jalen Brunson's second game back from injury on Monday. Note that the Knicks have averaged an impressive 122.6 points per game with the 'over' going 14-6 when listed as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season. New York is a good defensive team but I'm not convinced it is elite in that department, having allowed at least 42 made field goals in six of its last seven games. The Knicks haven't been stronger defensively at home compared to on the road by any considerable margin this season, allowing 112.1 points per contest at MSG compared to their season scoring average allowed of 112.2 points per game. Take the over (10*). |
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03-20-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Knicks | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams certainly appear to be headed in opposite directions right now with Minnesota off three straight losses and New York checking in following three consecutive wins. The T'Wolves not surprisingly weren't competitive on Saturday in Toronto, playing on the second of back-to-back nights after a double-overtime loss in Chicago the night previous. That loss to the Bulls was multi-faceted as Minnesota also lost Anthony Edwards to what appeared to be a serious ankle injury. It turns out that injury may not be as severe as first thought as he was out of the walking boot on Sunday. While he's unlikely to play on Monday, I still think the T'Wolves can hang. Minnesota has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since dropping a 120-107 decision at home against the Knicks back in November. Note that the T'Wolves are 30-18 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 points in that spot. They're also 15-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.2 points on average in that situation. While the Knicks are 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games, they've won by more than eight points only six times over that stretch. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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03-19-23 | Miami-FL v. Indiana OVER 145 | 85-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Indiana at 8:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams saw their first round games stay 'under' the total and we won with the 'under' in Indiana's double-digit victory over Kent State. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the Hoosiers take on Miami in the second round on Sunday. It's unlikely the Hurricanes will shoot as poorly as they did in their tournament opener. They knocked down only 17-of-56 field goal attempts in a come-from-behind win over Drake. They had a much larger margin for error against the Missouri Valley Conference champs than they will against Indiana on Sunday. Keep in mind, Miami does still rank 12th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and prior to Friday's contest had made good on 25 or more field goals in an incredible 13 straight games. Indiana certainly checks all the boxes defensively, but I'm not about to consider it elite in that department, sitting 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. You would have to go all the way back to January 31st to find the last time the Hoosiers held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals. On the clip side, Indiana is one of the hottest offensive teams in the tournament having made good on 31, 25, 28, 27, 31 and 29 field goals over its last six games. Miami isn't stopping anyone, ranking 114th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Prior to Friday's game, the Hurricanes had allowed 27 or more made field goals in eight straight contests. I realize that this court in Albany has been a nightmare for shooters as a whole but that didn't stop UConn and Iona from combining to score 150 points so I do believe a high-scoring result is well within the realm of possibility here. Take the over (8*). |
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03-19-23 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 233.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. While the Bucks always garner plenty of attention, I'm not sure many are paying close attention to the style they're employing right now. It's quite fascinating actually. Milwaukee has allowed seven straight opponents to get off at least 95 field goal attempts with five of those foes hoisting up 100+. The Raptors aren't likely to shy away from an up-tempo affair here as they're feeling it, winners of three games in a row having gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five straight contests. While Toronto has posted terrific defensive numbers during its current three-game winning streak, it's worth noting that those victories came against a reeling Nuggets squad, the Thunder who were in a difficult back-to-back spot and the T'Wolves without Anthony Edwards and also in a back-to-back situation. Also note that all three of those games came at home. There's no denying the Raps are red hot offensively. They've made good on 46, 49, 47 and 48 field goals over their last four games. The last time these two teams matched up on this same floor in January we saw 141 first half points in a game that finished north of 250. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida Atlantic minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. I have no problem with laying the lofty number of points with Florida Atlantic here, even after Fairleigh Dickinson shocked number-one seed Purdue in its tournament opener on Friday. FDU still checks in ranked 274th in the country according to KenPom - most glaring is the fact that the Knights are 353rd (out of 364 teams) in adjusted offensive efficiency, despite having faced the 362 most difficult schedule in terms of opponents' offensive efficiency. It's obviously extremely rare for a 16-seed to prevail over a one-seed, even moreso when it shoots worse than 39% from the field as FDU did against Purdue. That upset had everything to do with the Big Ten champs looking right past the Knights, and paying the price for it. I don't expect Florida Atlantic to take anything for granted here - after all, it is coming off an 'upset' win of its own over highly-touted Memphis in the opening round. While the Owls didn't necessarily have their shooting legs under them, they still afforded themselves plenty of scoring opportunities - 65 field goal attempts to be exact. They've knocked down at least 25 field goals in an incredible 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Owls are certainly no strangers to blowout victories, with five wins by 20+ points to their credit over their last eight games alone. Take Florida Atlantic (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Predators v. Rangers OVER 6 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Nashville and New York at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting on Sunday. 'Over' bettors were stymied by a scoreless third period between the Rangers and Penguins last night - New York's fourth 'under' result in its last five games. Keep in mind, prior to last night's shutout, the Blueshirts had allowed at least two goals in 18 of their previous 19 games. In this back-to-back spot there's obviously a good chance we see backup goaltender Jaro Halak between the pipes on Sunday. The same goes for Predators in goal after Juuse Saros turned in a terrific performance but it wasn't enough in yesterday's 3-2 overtime loss to the Jets. The Preds are reeling right now and perhaps a change of scenery will do them some good. It's worth noting that they haven't suffered any drop-off in offensive production on the road, averaging 2.9 goals per game - identical to their overall scoring average. Meanwhile, the Rangers give up 2.8 goals per game on the campaign but that average bumps up to 3.0 when coming off three or more cosnecutive wins this season, as is the case here. Note that the 'over' is 8-1 with the Preds playing on the road off three or more consecutive 'under' results over the last three seasons, which is the situation here, leading to an average total of 7.1 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Michigan State +3 v. Marquette | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan State plus the points over Marquette at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. Marquette put on a shooting clinic in its double-digit win and cover against Vermont in the opening round. That marked its third straight ATS victory. Note that the Golden Eagles have reeled off four or more consecutive ATS wins on two previous occasions this season but to keep those streaks intact beyond three in a row they faced a pair of disappointing teams in Georgetown and Villanova. This time around they'll be up against Michigan State, which is essentially playing with 'house money', dancing on to the second round as a double-digit loss team but having faced the sixth most difficult schedule in the country this season (according to KenPom). In stark contrast, Marquette has faced the 42nd toughest slate of opponents this season, including 196th in non-conference play. Firmly planted in uncharted territory having won a season-high 10 consecutive games (its previous longest win streak was five), we'll fade the Golden Eagles here. Take Michigan State (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Kings v. Wizards OVER 235.5 | 132-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Washington at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Kings have seen the first two games of their current road trip stay 'under' the total but I look for a reversal of that trend on Saturday as they stop in Washington to face the Wizards, who find themselves in a back-to-back spot off last night's blowout loss in Cleveland. The Wizards were a virtual no-show last night, knocking down only 35-of-76 field goal attempts in the 23-point loss. Washington's defense has regressed considerably lately as it has allowed more than 40 made field goals in five of its last six games. Sacramento has inexplicably shot poorly over its last two games but I do expect it to 'get right' here. Note that while Washington put forth an abysmal offensive effort against an elite Cleveland defense last night, it has knocked down 46, 47, 43 and 44 field goals over its last four home games. Take the over (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Auburn v. Houston OVER 132 | Top | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Auburn and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. While they'll have to work to do so, I think Bruce Pearl's Auburn Tigers can speed the snail's paced Houston Cougars up in Saturday's second round matchup. Since the Tigers ugly 46-43 loss at Tennessee back in early February we've seen the 'over' go 6-4 in their last 10 games. They've hoisted up at least 62 field goal attempts in six of those 10 contests as well and the four games where they didn't still totalled 152, 140, 149 and 149 points. Auburn enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 29, 28, 25 and 29 field goals over its last four contests but it's a much different story at the defensive end of the floor as it has yielded 32, 29, 25, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five games. Houston was involved in an incredibly low-scoring affair against Northern Kentucky to open this tournament. Star guard Marcus Sasser appeared to re-aggravate his groin injury and was only able to play 14 minutes. His absence (he's likely to play but it remains to be seen for how long or how effective he can be) hurts the Cougars just as much defensively as it does offensively, noting that Northern Kentucky was able to get off a whopping 69 field goal attempts in Thursday's loss. Keep in mind, Sasser is one of the best defenders in the nation. While the Houston offense has sputtered recently, I'm not overly concerned as it ranks 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and has enough scoring depth to pick up the slack should Sasser not be able to handle his usual workload. I'm quite simply willing to bet against an Auburn defense that has looked out of sorts for the last month stepping up against the one-seed here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-23 | Auburn v. Houston -5 | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Auburn at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Regardless whether Houston star guard Marcus Sasser is able to play or how much he can contribute, I like the way this matchup sets up for the Cougars. Auburn exploded for 51 points in the second half in its opening round victory over Iowa. Keep in mind, that was just the Tigers fifth win since January 25th. They haven't posted consecutive victories since a five-game winning streak fro January 7th to 21st. I don't like the Auburn defense here, noting that it has allowed 32, 29, 25, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests. The Cougars play at one of the slowest tempos in the entire country but I look for the Tigers to do all they can to speed them up here and I think that actually may end up working against them. Houston certainly didn't show it in its tournament opener but it can hang a crooked number on the scoreboard when necessary. Note that the Cougars have knocked down at least 25 field goals in six of their last eight games. They've been held under 70 points in five straight games but that's by far their longest such streak of the season (prior to it they had been held under 70 in only six of 30 contests). With or without Sasser, I look for the Cougars to outpace the Tigers here. Take Houston (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Duke v. Tennessee +4 | 52-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Duke at 2:40 pm et on Saturday. Duke has reeled off five straight ATS victories including a blowout win over Oral Roberts in the opening round of this tournament on Thursday. Long pointspread win streaks aren't commonplace for teams as high-profile as the Blue Devils and I can't help but feel it's leaving them overvalued as a considerable favorite against Tennessee on Saturday. Note that prior to its current streak, the Blue Devils season-long ATS run had lasted only two games and that happened just once - way back in the first two games of the regular season. Here, I anticipate Duke getting stymied by a tremendous Tennessee defense that checks in ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). The Vols actually sit 10 spots ahead of the Blue Devils in KenPom's overall rankings. While Duke has impressed, it is just one game removed from a sub-20 field goal performance against Virginia (in the ACC Championship Game). In stark contrast, the Vols have knocked down more than 20 field goals in 11 straight games - that despite playing at only the 276th fastest tempo in the country (again according to KenPom). In what projects as a low-scoring game, we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Vols. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Jets v. Predators OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Nashville at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. With both of these teams coming off poor offensive showings last time out (Winnipeg was shut out by Boston and Nashville scored just one goal in a loss to Chicago) I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Also helping our cause in terms of keeping this total low is the fact that the last two meetings in this series finished with just three goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 with the Predators coming off consecutive games that totalled four goals or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 7.3 goals in that situation. The 'over' is also a long-term 65-44 with the Jets coming off a home loss by two goals or more, which is also the situation in this spot. While the 'under' has gone 20-11-3 with the Jets playing on the road this season, their games have averaged 6.0 total goals away from home. Take the over (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Michigan v. Vanderbilt -1 | 65-66 | Push | 0 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vanderbilt minus the points over Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won with Michigan in its NIT opener against Toledo but it faces a much more difficult challenge as it heads on the road to take on Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Commodores are a red hot 10-2 SU and ATS over their last 12 games and unlike the Wolverines, I think Vandy is content to be in the NIT, rather than feeling snubbed by the NCAA Tournament committee. Michigan has struggled away from home all season, going 5-11 while being outscored by an average margin of 1.2 points on average. Meanwhile, Vandy is 13-5 in Nashville, outscoring the opposition by 4.8 points on average. With the Wolverines giving up far too many scoring opportunities (they've allowed more than 60 field goal attempts in five straight games) I look for the Commodores to roll here. Take Vanderbilt (8*). |
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03-17-23 | Kent State v. Indiana UNDER 140.5 | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Indiana at 9:55 pm et on Friday. Kent State enters the NCAA Tournament sporting a 12-20 o/u record in lined games this season but was involved in consecutive high-scoring affairs in the MAC Tournament semi-final and championship rounds. I do think the Golden Flashes generally want to slow things down when faced with considerable odds, as is the case here against Indiana. Remember, during their non-conference slate they went up against Houston and Gonzaga, both on the road no less, and held them to just 50 and 55 field goal attempts respectively in a pair of ATS wins. Indiana checks in off a high-scoring contest as well, falling by a 77-73 score against Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament semi-finals. The Hoosiers scored 80 or more points in 13 of their first 21 games this season but have topped out at 79 points over their last 12 contests. Defensively, Indiana probably doesn't get enough credit. It has held 12 of its last 17 opponents to 24 made field goals or fewer. Kent State ranks 111th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, noting that it has only faced the 284th most difficult slate of opponents from a defensive efficiency standpoint (according to KenPom). I noted earlier that the 'over' has cashed in the Golden Flashes last two games. That matches their longest such streak of the season, with the 'under' having cashed in their next game on both previous occasions where they came off back-to-back 'overs'. Take the under (8*). |
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03-17-23 | Arizona State +6 v. TCU | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over TCU at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Bettors will undoubtedly be down on Pac-12 teams after watching Arizona's stunning loss to Princeton yesterday (the Wildcats won the Pac-12 Tournament less than a week ago). With that being said, I'll grab all the points I can get with underdog Arizona State here. TCU peaked sometime around mid-January, perhaps more specifically on January 21st when it won by 23 points on the road against Kansas. At that time, the Horned Frogs had just four losses but they've gone on to suffer eight more since. Since a four-game slide in late January, Arizona State has gone 8-5 over its last 13 games, including upset wins over Stanford, Arizona and USC. While the Sun Devils are coming off an incredible 98-point performance against Nevada in their 'First Four' matchup on Wednesday, I've been more impressed by their defense. They've held five straight opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts entering Friday's contest. The Horned Frogs have knocked down more than 20 field goals in five straight games but they've done so on the strength of 59 or more FG attempts in four of those five contests. Defensively, you would have to go back 14 games, all the way to January 24th, to find the last time TCU limited an opponent to fewer than 24 made field goals. I expect this game to go down to the wire at the very least. Take Arizona State (8*). |
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03-17-23 | 76ers v. Hornets OVER 226 | 121-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Hornets have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last three games - not surprising given they've been a mess defensively since losing key space-eater Mark Williams to a thumb injury. Note that Charlotte has allowed its last three opponents to make good on 46, 41 and 45 field goals. That includes a pair of games against the slow-paced Cavaliers, who got up only 80 and 76 field goal attempts. The 76ers play a similarly slow pace but figure to take advantage just the same. Philadelphia had its streak of seven straight games knocking down 40 or more field goals snapped last time out against the aforementioned Cavs but it still scored 118 points. For whatever reason, the Hornets offense has given the 76ers defense fits going back to the start of last season, making good on 48, 39, 46, 42, 44 and 38 field goals in six meetings with a low-water mark of 106 points in terms of scoring. Charlotte enters this contest having knocked down 40 or more field goals in five straight games after being held under that number in four of its previous five contests. The return of Kelly Oubre has certainly given it a boost, rounding out a capable scoring trio that also includes Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward. Take the over (8*). |
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03-17-23 | VCU v. St. Mary's -4 | Top | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over VCU at 2 pm et on Friday. I think VCU carries a certain reputation when it comes to postseason basketball, due in large part to past success. I don't think this is a good matchup at all for the Rams as they take on a St. Mary's Gaels squad that many consider an afterthought after getting brushed aside by Gonzaga twice in its last three games. Entering the tournament, the Gaels rank 12th overall according to KenPom, displaying tremendous efficiency at both ends of the floor. It's a case of 'anything you can do, I can do better' by my estimation. While VCU ranks an impressive 16th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, St. Mary's checks in ninth. The Rams sit just 138th in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency - a far cry from the Gaels 39th ranking. Did St. Mary's do it against a weaker schedule? Not even close as the Gaels have faced the 74th toughest slate of opponents this season (also according to KenPom) and the 56th most difficult non-conference schedule. VCU checks in 134th and 215th in those two categories, respectively. Note that St. Mary's has reeled off six consecutive ATS wins when coming off an in-conference loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. In fact, the Gaels are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 contests following a straight-up loss. While St. Mary's has gone a profitable 18-13 ATS in lined contests this season, you have to wonder if that record might be a shade better were it not for its opponents shooting an above-average 75.2% from the free throw line. Note that VCU has knocked down just 69.7% of its attempts from the charity stripe this season. Take St. Mary's (10*). |
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03-16-23 | Penn State v. Texas A&M OVER 134.5 | Top | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn State and Texas A&M at 9:55 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams posted 'under' results in their respective conference tournament championship games but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. I think the potential is there for Texas A&M to go off offensively after being held down by an elite, under-appreciated Alabama defense in the SEC title game. Penn State ranks 99th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) and has shown no ability to limit its opponents' scoring opportunities over the last month or so, allowing more than 60 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. The Nittany Lions have yielded 24 or more made field goals in 12 of their last 15 contests overall and haven't limited an opponent to 20 or fewer made field goals since way back on December 29th (I realize that streak was kept intact thanks to overtime against Northwestern last week). Texas A&M can certainly play some defense but it's worth noting that it hasn't held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals since February 4th against Georgia. It's worth noting that the Aggies have been a much different team away from their home floor as well, yielding an average of two more made field goals on two fewer attempts per game compared to their overall season average. Despite playing at a slow pace, the Nittany Lions have managed to knock down 22 or more field goals in five of their last six games and have only been held to fewer than 20 made field goals twice all season - an impressive feat considering they play in the Big Ten, which can be a slog of a conference at times. Penn State averages 10 made three-pointers per contest and travels well in that regard, averaging the same 10 made threes per game away from home, on one attempt fewer compared to its season average. Take the over (10*). |
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03-16-23 | Magic v. Suns OVER 228 | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are in desperate need of a 'get-right' performance offensively and I think they get it on Thursday against the Magic. With that being said, Orlando checks in off an off day on Wednesday following a disappointing loss in San Antonio on Tuesday. The Magic offense has been on point during a 6-1 'over' run, scoring 114 points in all seven games and I do expect it to give the Suns defense some trouble here. The problem for Orlando is that its own defense has been non-existent lately. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse at that end of the floor as it has allowed 46, 49, 42 and 48 made field goals over its last four games. Prior to that stretch, there were also three games where the Magic allowed 48 or more made field goals from February 14th to March 1st. The opportunities have certainly been there for the Suns as they've hoisted up 94 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has faded a little defensively, yielding 40 or more made field goals in three straight games despite holding all three of those opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. The 'under' has cashed in each of the last two meetings in this series but we haven't seen three consecutive 'under' results between these two teams since back in 2016-17. Take the over (8*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-15-23 | Guardians v. Nationals OVER 9 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
04-14-23 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
04-14-23 | Mets -1.5 v. A's | 17-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
04-14-23 | Orioles -101 v. White Sox | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
04-13-23 | Flyers v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
04-13-23 | Twins v. Yankees -140 | 11-2 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
04-13-23 | Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
04-12-23 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 226 | Top | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
04-12-23 | Bulls +5.5 v. Raptors | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
04-12-23 | Mariners -104 v. Cubs | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
04-11-23 | Cardinals -162 v. Rockies | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
04-11-23 | Hawks +5 v. Heat | Top | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
04-11-23 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning -130 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
04-10-23 | Canucks v. Kings -177 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
04-10-23 | Dodgers -148 v. Giants | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
04-10-23 | A's v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
04-09-23 | Rangers v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
04-09-23 | Red Sox v. Tigers +106 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
04-08-23 | Avalanche v. Kings +111 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
04-08-23 | Blue Jays v. Angels -109 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
04-08-23 | Yankees -120 v. Orioles | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
04-08-23 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
04-07-23 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 11 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
04-07-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
04-07-23 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 222.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
04-07-23 | Astros v. Twins -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
04-06-23 | Dodgers -144 v. Diamondbacks | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
04-06-23 | Kings +120 v. Golden Knights | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
04-06-23 | Blazers v. Spurs OVER 230 | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
04-06-23 | Padres v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
04-06-23 | Giants +122 v. White Sox | 16-6 | Win | 122 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
04-05-23 | Bulls +8 v. Bucks | Top | 92-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
04-05-23 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
04-04-23 | Oilers v. Kings +113 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
04-04-23 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
04-04-23 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 243.5 | 125-136 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
04-04-23 | Celtics v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
04-03-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
04-03-23 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
04-02-23 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 233.5 | Top | 134-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
04-02-23 | Wizards v. Knicks UNDER 222.5 | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
04-02-23 | Tigers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
04-01-23 | Kings +105 v. Seattle Kraken | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
04-01-23 | Miami-FL v. Connecticut UNDER 149.5 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
03-31-23 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 231 | 138-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
03-31-23 | Pistons +5 v. Rockets | 115-121 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
03-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 220.5 | 130-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
03-31-23 | Mets v. Marlins +105 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
03-30-23 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 236.5 | Top | 140-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
03-30-23 | Rangers v. Devils -124 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
03-29-23 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 235 | 120-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
03-29-23 | Lakers v. Bulls UNDER 225.5 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB OVER 151.5 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
03-28-23 | Kings +120 v. Flames | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
03-28-23 | Magic +8.5 v. Grizzlies | 108-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
03-28-23 | Canucks v. Blues -105 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
03-28-23 | Cavs v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
03-27-23 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 220 | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
03-27-23 | Seattle Kraken +118 v. Wild | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
03-26-23 | Rockets v. Cavs UNDER 225 | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas UNDER 149.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
03-26-23 | Mavs -10 v. Hornets | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
03-25-23 | Bucks v. Nuggets -2.5 | 106-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
03-25-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga OVER 153.5 | 82-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
03-25-23 | Nets v. Heat UNDER 222.5 | 129-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
03-25-23 | Sharks +1.5 v. Flames | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
03-24-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Lakers | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
03-24-23 | Bucks -8.5 v. Jazz | Top | 144-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
03-24-23 | Miami-FL v. Houston UNDER 138.5 | Top | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
03-24-23 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 228 | 124-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
03-23-23 | Golden Knights +122 v. Flames | Top | 3-2 | Win | 122 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
03-23-23 | Arkansas v. Connecticut OVER 139.5 | 65-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
03-23-23 | Knicks v. Magic UNDER 229.5 | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
03-22-23 | Suns -1 v. Lakers | 111-122 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
03-22-23 | Utah Valley v. Cincinnati OVER 147.5 | Top | 74-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
03-22-23 | 76ers -3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
03-21-23 | Golden Knights -135 v. Canucks | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
03-21-23 | Wisconsin +5 v. Oregon | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
03-21-23 | Cavs v. Nets OVER 218 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
03-20-23 | Flames v. Kings UNDER 6 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
03-20-23 | Wolves v. Knicks OVER 227.5 | Top | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
03-20-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Knicks | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
03-19-23 | Miami-FL v. Indiana OVER 145 | 85-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
03-19-23 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 233.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
03-19-23 | Predators v. Rangers OVER 6 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
03-19-23 | Michigan State +3 v. Marquette | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
03-18-23 | Kings v. Wizards OVER 235.5 | 132-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
03-18-23 | Auburn v. Houston OVER 132 | Top | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
03-18-23 | Auburn v. Houston -5 | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
03-18-23 | Duke v. Tennessee +4 | 52-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
03-18-23 | Jets v. Predators OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
03-18-23 | Michigan v. Vanderbilt -1 | 65-66 | Push | 0 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
03-17-23 | Kent State v. Indiana UNDER 140.5 | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
03-17-23 | Arizona State +6 v. TCU | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
03-17-23 | 76ers v. Hornets OVER 226 | 121-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
03-17-23 | VCU v. St. Mary's -4 | Top | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
03-16-23 | Penn State v. Texas A&M OVER 134.5 | Top | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
03-16-23 | Magic v. Suns OVER 228 | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |