Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-08-20 | Brewers v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in this same pitching matchup last week - a game that totaled 13 runs. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Adrian Houser once again takes the ball for the Brewers. While he didn't give up a home run for the first time in five starts, he still allowed nine hits and five earned runs over five innings. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down compared to last season while his walks are basically on par, which isn't saying much. He's also giving up more hits and home runs per nine innings. Spencer Turnbull counters for Detroit. I noted in my analysis last week that he was due for some regression to the mean in terms of home runs allowed as he had yet to give one up this season. Well he finally allowed a long ball in that most recent start and continues to struggle with his command, issuing a ridiculous six walks per nine innings. While the Brewers have struggled offensively this season look for them to once again take advantage of a Tigers pitching staff that has posted an ERA north of five this season, ranking 28th in the majors. Take the over (10*). |
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09-07-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -147 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8:10 pm et on Monday. While this does have the makings of a long, hard-fought series, I'll side with the favored Lightning in Game 1 on Monday night. Tampa Bay offers a much different challenge to New York than Philadelphia did last round. The Flyers had to lean heavily on goaltender Carter Hart to stick around in the latter part of that series. Unfortunately they weren't able to generate enough of an offensive attack to ultimately get over the hump. Here, the Lightning have an elite goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy but also have the offense to break down what has been a rock solid Islanders defense (head coach Barry Trotz has made a big difference in that regard). In what should be a fairly low-scoring series-opener, look for the Bolts to prevail. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 49.5 | 55-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Navy at 8 pm et on Monday. This total has obviously dropped considerably since opening but I still see some value playing the 'under' at the current number. BYU will be missing TE Matt Bushman - who was expected to be one of the best tight ends in FBS this season. The Cougars are also replacing most of their receiving corps from a year ago. While QB Zach Wilson has plenty of upside, I'm not convinced we'll see him come out bombing away here on Monday night. Navy is also turning to a number of new faces on offense, which is pretty much par for the course for the Midshipmen every year. QB Dalen Morris takes over the reins under center and we can expect a fairly conservative version of the option attack against a solid BYU defense. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis UNDER 74 | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 94 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas State and Memphis at 8 pm et on Saturday. Let's face it, we're dealing with a diminished opening week slate of games due to Covid-19 but this primetime matchup between Arkansas State and Memphis does have the potential to be one of the week's most entertaining affairs. We're looking at a massive posted total for this one and while both offenses have proven explosive in recent years while the defenses have left a lot to be desired, I'm not convinced we're going to see the type of shootout the oddsmakers are projecting. Arkansas State knows it will be hard-pressed to win a shootout with Memphis - it simply doesn't have enough big-time playmakers to come away victorious in that sort of back-and-forth battle. Instead, I look for the Red Wolves to focus on trying to sustain long drives with an experienced offensive line capable of helping them move the chains with some consistency. The issue is that the Memphis defense has plenty of talent and experience, and lots of room for improvement, not to mention motivation get off to a strong start here in the season-opener at home. Memphis is loaded once again on offense but will have to replace star RB Kenneth Gainwell, who has opted out this season. The Tigers will generate plenty of offense but I don't believe it will be enough to get this one north of the sky-high total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-20 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:25 pm et on Saturday. This series has very much become a toss-up thanks in large part to the stellar goaltending of Carter Hart for the Flyers. While I do still give the Islanders the slight edge entering Game 7, I'll instead focus on the total and call for a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair on Saturday night. While the Flyers did manage to score five goals in Game 6, they actually didn't look all that dangerous offensively for much of the game. We know Isles head coach Barry Trotz will have his players ready to defend and frustrate Philadelphia here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army OVER 55 | 0-42 | Loss | -108 | 88 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Middle Tennessee State and Army at 1:30 pm et on Saturday. While I'll admit this total has settled out a little higher than I would like, I still see value playing the 'over' at the current number. Neither squad was an offensive juggernaut a year ago but I'm confident we'll see both teams get off to a positive start thanks to this favorable matchup on Saturday. The real key here is that neither defense showed the ability to get into the backfield with any consistency a year ago, and both units lose a number of key pieces entering the new season. Both teams have plenty of dynamic playmakers at the skill positions on offense and given enough time - as should be the case here - I look for the two offenses to feast. Expect to see enough 'home run plays' to help send this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-04-20 | Rockies +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Rockies plus the insurance run on Friday night in Los Angeles. Antonio Senzatela will take the ball for Colorado. He has quietly gotten off to a fine start this season. His strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly while his walks are way down, all the way to 1.5 per nine innings compared to 4.1 a year ago. His home runs and hits allowed have also dropped. Dodgers starter Dustin May has posted a solid ERA and WHIP but a deeper look shows that he has regressed slightly. His strikeouts per nine innings are down from 8.3 a year ago to 5.9 this season. His walks have jumped from 1.3 to 2.3. He's also allowing 1.0 home runs per nine innings compared to 0.5 last season. Entering last night's action the Rockies had crept into T10th in runs per game and T7th in team batting average. I look for them to hang around in this one. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-04-20 | Brewers v. Indians -146 | 7-1 | Loss | -146 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Indians on Friday night as they host an Interleague matchup with the Brewers. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for Milwaukee. He was one of the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball last season but has settled down considerably this season, posting quite solid numbers. With that being said, his command hasn't been great as he has issued just shy of five walks per nine innings. He's giving up just 0.3 home runs per nine innings, way down from last year's 3.1. That's the type of stat that tends to regress to the mean a little bit as the season goes on. Cookie Carrasco will counter for Cleveland. His strikeouts per nine innings are up but so are his walks. Keep in mind, he battled command issues over a three-start stretch earlier but has settled down over his last couple of outings. He'll benefit from facing a Brewers club that ranks T26th in runs per game and 29th in team batting average. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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09-04-20 | Stars +117 v. Avalanche | 5-4 | Win | 117 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Colorado at 8 pm et on Friday. The Avs have climbed all the way back in this series with back-to-back dominating victories but I don't expect them to complete the comeback on Friday night. Dallas has actually outshot Colorado by a 46-27 margin over the last four periods of hockey. The Avs have gotten a boost from goaltender Michael Hutchinson but let's not lose sight of the fact that he's still a very average NHL netminder (you may remember he was run out of town as the backup in Toronto). The Stars don't strike me as the type of team that will fold under the pressure here in Game 7. Take Dallas (10*). |
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09-03-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This is an awfully tough matchup for the D'Backs as they run into a red hot Clayton Kershaw while sending a struggling Luke Weaver to the mound. Weaver made his big league debut in 2016 but has pitched just one full season since, that coming in 2018 when he went 7-11 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are up this season but so are his walks, hits and home runs allowed. The fact is, Weaver has struggled here in 2020 and there's little reason to expect him to turn things around against the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw is quietly off to a terrific start this season with a 1.80 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season while his walks are down. Keep in mind he was an All-Star once again last year and finished eighth in N.L. Cy Young voting so the fact that he has improved on his numbers says something. I'll lay the extra run to get a more reasonably price with the Dodgers here. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really think this is a blowout in the making as the weary Nuggets take on the Clippers just one day removed from outlasting the Jazz in what was an opening round war of attrition. Los Angeles is well-rested, and likely to keep rolling after rounding into form in the latter stages of the first round. The Clips didn't exactly come roaring out of the gates here in the "bubble" but they didn't have to. Here, I look for them to get off to a blazing start to the second round as they do a far better job of containing Jokic and Murray than the Jazz did in the Nuggets last series. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss UNDER 53.5 | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 54 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between South Alabama and Southern Miss at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'm not expecting a great deal of offensive fireworks as South Alabama and Southern Miss open what promises to be a unique college football season on Thursday night. Southern Miss should be able to name its score against a Jaguars squad that might be one of the weakest teams in the nation (of those playing that is). With that being said, the Golden Eagles are dealing with a number of key departures on offense and might just focus on pounding away on the ground and controlling the clock in this very winnable contest. QB Jack Abraham has shown plenty of promise but he likely won't be asked to do too much in the season-opener. South Alabama's spread offense is going to continue to go through some growing pains. While the Jaguars do boast considerable talent at the wide receiver position, I'm not sure they have the quarterback to make it happen on the scoreboard. Most will be looking for an entertaining, high-scoring affair to open the campaign with this total set in the 50's. I'm find with going the other way and grabbing some perceived value with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-20 | Flyers v. Islanders -115 | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Entering these unique NHL Playoffs my first thought was that we could see a sleeper team end up going on a deep run and maybe even hoisting the Stanley Cup and the Islanders certainly seem to fit that bill. New York not surprisingly turned in a bit of a flat effort with a chance to eliminate the Flyers two nights ago but did rally late to tie the game before falling in overtime. Here, I look for a more focused and complete effort from the Isles as they certainly don't want to get involved in a seventh and deciding game, where anything can happen, and knowing the Flyers have a goalie capable of stealing such a game in Carter Hart. While I did like the Flyers entering this series, Hart as admittedly not been at the top of his game and their overall play has been uneven. Take New York (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 6 | 4-1 | Win | 109 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Dallas at 8 pm et on Wednesday. The last two games in this series have featured big early leads, first with Dallas jumping ahead 3-0 in Game 4 and then with Colorado roaring out to a shocking 5-0 first period lead in Game 5. Here, I look for both teams to tighten things up defensively. The Avs will still be in desperation mode facing elimination but they can ill afford to get involved in another wild, high-scoring affair. Even when spotted a 5-0 lead, the Stars were still able to make the Avs feel uncomfortable, ultimately scoring three goals in the contest. It's not easy to play an 'under' the way this series has played out, but here I simply feel it's the right call. Take the under (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Tigers v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair between these two clubs on Wednesday night. The Tigers are hot right now. They rank ninth in the majors in runs per game and 11th in team batting average. The Brewers find themselves at the back-end of most offensive rankings but I do think they can have some success at the dish here tonight. Spencer Turnbull has posted a solid ERA this season for the Tigers but a deeper look indicates he could be in for some rough waters moving forward. Turnbull is striking out fewer batters per nine innings than a year ago while issuing north of five walks - way up from his walk rate a year ago. Brewers starter Adrian Houser is nothing special having recorded a 4.36 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this season. The Tigers can get to him, and the Brewers bullpen here tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 221 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Milwaukee at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total in this matchup since Game 1, despite the fact that the series-opener did manage to reach 219 total points (not much lower than the closing total of 224). I believe we'll consider to see the totals drop as this series progresses as we should be in for another relatively low-scoring affair (by today's NBA standards) on Wednesday. Keep in mind, both teams shot the ball pretty well, particularly from three-point range, two nights ago. As expected, Miami was able to slow down the Bucks pace, something I think we'll continue to see as the series goes on. The Bucks got punched in the mouth in Game 1 but I'm confident we'll see them punch back on Wednesday. But am I confident enough that I'm willing to lay a handful of points with them against a gritty Heat squad? Not a chance. Instead we'll focus on the total and call for a tightly-contested affair in Game 2. Take the under (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Giants v. Rockies -127 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem to be a little hesitant to back the Rockies in a favored role following last night's 23-5 beatdown at the hands of the Giants. I do look for Colorado to respond here with Kyle Freeland on the mound. Freeland continues his comeback tour following a disastrous 2019 campaign. His strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly but more importantly, his walks per nine innings have dropped considerably and he's giving up far fewer home runs. Logan Webb will counter for the Giants. He's made just 15 big league starts, eight last year and seven this year so we don't have a lot to go on. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly this season, his walks have ballooned from 3.2 to 3.8 and he's been somewhat lucky, giving up just 0.3 home runs per nine innings. That could change here at hitter-friendly Coors Field on Wednesday. Take Colorado (10*). |
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09-01-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and Vegas at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Golden Knights have certainly proven capable of shutting down the Canucks offense for stretches in this series, having posted two shutout victories and also not allowing a single goal in a pivotal third period on Game 4. With an opportunity to close out the series on Tuesday night, I look for the Knights to tighten up defensively once again. Meanwhile, the Canucks know that they're up against it now, needing three consecutive wins to rally to win this series. They'll obviously need to be stronger defensively after allowing three unanswered goals in the third period of Game 4. Take the under (10*). |
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09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers entered last night's action tied for first in the majors in runs per game but rather than back them at a steep price on Tuesday night, we'll instead play the 'over' as I'm confident the D'Backs will be able to pitch in with some offense as well. Alex Young will take the ball for the D'Backs. We've actually been fairly high on Young this season but he's shown signs of regression in recent starts. He has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, allowing four home runs in just 13 1/3 innings over that stretch. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season but so are his hits allowed and his walks have started to creep up as well. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks, hits and home runs allowed are all up compared to last year. He has worked beyond the fourth inning just once in his last four starts. Take the over (10*). |
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09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | 78-80 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. This series has been an 'over' bettors' dream and while I understand the logic behind posting a lower total with this being Game 7 and all, I'm not about to jump off the 'over' train. Generally, we see the defensive intensity ramp up in Game 7 but these aren't typical circumstances. Without the raucous atmosphere these players are accustomed to, not to mention home court advantage, we just haven't seen that same level of defensively intensity, regardless what point of a series we're talking about. Here, I look for both teams to continue to get the looks they want on offense, and continue to execute at a very high level at the offensive end of the floor. Take the over (10*). |
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09-01-20 | Cardinals v. Reds -147 | 16-2 | Loss | -147 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Reds as they aim to bounce-back from last night's 7-5 loss at the hands of the Cardinals. Cincinnati will turn to its ace, Sonny Gray. He's been outstanding so far this season, improving on what was an All-Star campaign a year ago. Gray's strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks, hits and home runs allowed are all down. St. Louis' seven-run outburst last night was not a common occurrence as they entered action ranked T26 in runs per game. Look for Gray to keep their bats at bay on Tuesday. Kwang Hyun Kim starts for St. Louis. He has been very effective in his last two starts but still isn't missing many bats, recording just 3.8 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 2.2 walks. We're talking about a very small sample size at the big league level with Kim. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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08-31-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -133 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
NHL Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado over Dallas at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Avalanche simply haven't been able to keep up with the Stars red-hot scoring in this series but they continue to generate a ton of scoring opportunities and I look for them to capitalize and get themselves back in the series with a victory on Monday night. Colorado had a number of bad bounces go against them in last night's 5-4 loss, which really wasn't as close as the final score indicated. It was generally a flat performance from the Avs and I think the quick turnaround will help their cause on Monday as they look to answer back. While Colorado is a young team, it has gained a great deal of playoff experience in recent years and I don't expect to see it simply fold the tent facing elimination on Monday night. If we know one thing, it's that the Stars can suffer defensive lapses and I look for Colorado to take advantage here. Take Colorado (10*). |
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08-31-20 | Bruins +104 v. Lightning | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Tampa Bay at 7 pm et on Monday. I don't expect the Bruins to simply roll over on Monday night, even as they face elimination and perhaps the enticing prospect of leaving the "bubble". Yes, Tampa Bay has dominated this series since dropping the opener but the Bruins are still a veteran-laden, talented squad that knows they're capable of getting back in the series. 3-1 series deficits aren't insurmountable and I expect the Bruins to finally get back at the Bolts here on Monday. Take Boston (10*). |
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08-31-20 | Cardinals +106 v. Reds | Top | 7-5 | Win | 106 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Cardinals as they head to Cincinnati to face the Reds on Monday. Dakota Hudson will take the ball for St. Louis. He quietly won 16 games for the Cardinals last season and finished fifth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting. So far this season his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down. He's also allowing two fewer hits per nine innings. Meanwhile, Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani has struggled. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down from 9.0 a year ago to 5.7 this season. His walks per nine innings have crept up from 2.6 last season to 3.6 this year. Neither of these offenses have excelled so far this season but I believe we'll see the Cards enjoy a solid night at the dish on Monday. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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08-30-20 | Avalanche -130 v. Stars | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Dallas at 6 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Avalanche in the last game in this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 4 on Sunday. Colorado has generally controlled the game flow in this series so far, but some lapses have cost it a 2-1 series deficit. We saw the Avs get refocused and rally from a couple of deficits in Game 3, and now I look for a more complete 60-minute effort on Sunday evening. This has all the makings of a long series. Look for the Avs to even things up here. Take Colorado (10*). |
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08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | 112-94 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Boston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I look for the Raptors to get an early jump on the Celtics in this series as they return from an extended layoff on Sunday afternoon. Boston looked a little disjointed at times early in its series against the 76ers but got stronger as it went on, ultimately prevailing against an undermanned Philadelphia squad. This should be a different story as it faces the challenge of a full-strength Raptors squad that is playing some of its best basketball here in the "bubble". All indications are that Kyle Lowry's ankle should be good to go for Game 1, with a few extra days off helping him get ready for the opener. Take Toronto (10*). |
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08-29-20 | Golden Knights v. Canucks UNDER 6 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Vancouver at 9:45 pm et on Saturday. The Knights simply didn't come to play in Game 2 of this series, dropping a 5-2 decision to even the series at a game apiece. I look for Vegas to tighten things up considerably on Saturday night, resulting in a relatively low-scoring affair. After the winner in each of the first two games of this series scored exactly five goals, it's obviously paramount for both squads to perform better defensively in Game 3 and I believe we'll see exactly that. Take the under (10*). |
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08-29-20 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 223 | 122-131 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Saturday. The Blazers will try to avoid elimination at the hands of Lebron and co. on Saturday night but they'll be hard-pressed to do so without the services of Damian Lillard. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total here, but I still believe it will prove too high as Portland makes a desperate attempt to stay in the series, ultimately missing plenty of shots against what will be a motivated Lakers squad. Los Angeles has gotten better as this series has progressed and while it has given up its share of points, I expect it to tighten things up and completely shut down the Blazers on Saturday night, helping this one stay 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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08-28-20 | Pirates +1.5 v. Brewers | 1-9 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Pirates with an insurance run on Friday night in Milwaukee. Pirates starter Derek Holland is obviously on the down side of his career but it is worth noting that his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down compared to last year. He is giving up a considerably higher home run rate but that should diminish with a larger sample size. Brewers starter Corbin Burnes is averaging over 12 strikeouts per nine innings but his walks have crept up to 5.5 per nine innings compared to 3.7 a year ago. Note that the Brewers rank a miserable 29th in the majors in runs per game and an identical 29th in team batting average. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-26-20 | Avalanche -137 v. Stars | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Dallas at 10:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Stars pummeled the Avalanche on their way to a 5-2 victory in Game 2 of this series on Monday night. Expect the Avs to answer the bell on Wednesday as they look to get back in this series. Colorado has yet to turn in a complete 60-minute effort in this series. It will need to produce that if it's going to contend with the red hot Stars. It is worth noting that the Avs have fired 71 shots on goal through two games so it's not as if they're not generating any pressure. Their issue has been a lack of defensive structure, due to injuries and otherwise, but I'm confident we'll finally see them pull together on the back-end on Wednesday night. If not they might as well pack up their bags and prepare to leave the "bubble". As we're being asked to lay the shortest price of the series to date, I'll back the Avs again here. Take Colorado (10*). |
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08-26-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -168 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We're being asked to lay a pretty steep price with the Cardinals on Wednesday night, but the price could be even higher in my opinion. Jakob Junis will make his return to the Royals rotation after dealing with a back injury. He wasn't good last season and he's been even worse here in 2020. While we are dealing with a small sample size (he's pitched just nine innings), Junis has seen his strikeouts per nine innings drop considerably while his walks, hits and home runs allowed have all gone up compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, Cards starter Dakota Hudson has posted an ERA north of six, but that doesn't tell the whole story as he's been burned by the long ball, allowing 2.7 home runs per nine innings. Note that he's never allowed more than 1.8 home runs per nine innings in a season previously, and that number was posted way back in 2012. Hudson's strikeouts per nine innings are way up over a year ago while he's also allowing few hits per nine innings. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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08-26-20 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair on Wednesday night as the A's and Rangers continue their series in Texas. Mike Fiers will take the ball for the A's. It's easy to forget that he was a 15-game winner a year ago. With that being said, W-L records rarely tell the whole story when it comes to MLB starting pitchers. There's a reason he wasn't in the running for the A.L. Cy Young. So far this season his strikeouts per nine innings are down to a career-low 4.1. His walks are on par with a year ago (2.6 per nine innings - not a favorable number). He's also giving up more hits and home runs per nine innings compared to a year ago. The Rangers may soon have to face the fact that Kolby Allard isn't cut out to be a big league starter. He owns a career 6.41 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up so far this season, so are his walks, home runs and hits allowed. The A's are capable of teeing off on Allard on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-26-20 | Islanders v. Flyers -108 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over New York at 3 pm et on Wednesday. I always like to back good goaltenders in bounce-back situations and we have just that with Carter Hart and the Flyers looking to rebound from a poor showing in Game 1 of this series. Of course, Hart wasn't really to blame in that series-opening loss as he kept his team in the game for two periods before the Islanders broke it open in the third. It is worth noting that off a loss in these playoffs, Hart has allowed just two goals on 56 shots, going a perfect 2-0 in the process. The Islanders might just be the hottest team in the Toronto "bubble" but the Flyers are no pushovers and unlike the Capitals last round, I expect them to make a series of this. For that to happen they need to respond with a big effort on Wednesday, and I'll call for them to do just that. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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08-25-20 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks +109 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Colorado at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Rockies starter German Marquez is pitching as poorly as he has at any point over the course of his big league career right now. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up considerably compared to last season. With that being said he has allowed a career-low 0.7 home runs per nine innings thus far. I do expect some regression in that department moving forward. Alex Young quietly put together a terrific rookie campaign for the D'Backs last season. Through nine appearances and two starts this season his strikeouts per nine innings are up and his walks are down. He allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings a year ago but that number has doubled here in 2020. I do look for Young to do a better job of keeping the ball in the park, noting that while the Rockies are an excellent hitting team, they entered last night ranking T15th in the majors in home runs. Take Arizona (10*). |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Clippers on Tuesday night as they bounce-back from a very disappointing overtime loss on Sunday afternoon. Luka Doncic simply took over that game on Sunday, turning in a performance for the ages with his running mate Kristaps Porzingis sidelined. Now I look for a big response from Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers as they look to take back control of the series and silence some of their doubters in the process. A big early lead may have been the worst thing that could have happened to the Clippers on Sunday as they let down their guard against the undermanned Mavs and ultimately paid the price with an 'L'. Look for a sharper, more focused effort from the Clips on Tuesday. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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08-25-20 | A's -156 v. Rangers | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. After a rough start to the season, A's starter Sean Manaea has turned things around in his last two outings, allowing just three earned runs while posting a 9:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 10 1/3 innings of work. His strikeouts per nine innings are down compared to last year but so are his walks. He's allowing north of 11 hits per nine innings but I expect him to improve on that average as the season goes on, noting he has never given up more than 9.5 runs per nine innings in a season over the course of his career. Kyle Gibson will counter for Texas on Tuesday. His strikeouts are down considerably compared to the last two seasons while his walks are up slightly. All in all, what you see is what you get when it comes to Gibson. He's virtually a career .500 starter with an ERA well north of four and a 1.41 WHIP. Take Oakland (10*). |
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08-25-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -106 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We're able to back the Lightning at what I would consider a discount price on Tuesday night, perhaps due to the nature of their loss in the opener of this series. Tampa Bay appeared to be outclassed for much of that game, ultimately falling by a 3-2 score. I like the veteran leadership on this well-coached Tampa Bay squad and certainly expect to see its best effort in Game 2 on Tuesday night. As I noted in my analysis prior to Game 1, I like the Lightning's edge between the pipes in this series with Andrei Vasilevskiy over Jaro Halak. We saw Halak turn in a terrific performance in the series-opener but I also don't feel the Lightning were hard enough on him. Look for a different story to play out in Game 2. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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08-25-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 221 | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Denver at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. We've been playing the 'over' every game in this series and it has paid off nicely. There's no reason to jump ship on Tuesday as we should once again see a high-scoring affair between these familiar foes. While in some cases I would shy away from playing the 'over' in an elimination game here in the "bubble" I believe this situation is a little different. The Nuggets still believe they can get back in the series and should really push the pace in this one noting the last game was decided by just two points in favor of the Jazz, with Denver shooting 49% from the field overall and 39% from three-point range. That contest got to 252 total points despite the Nuggets getting to the free throw line only 13 times (making 12 of those attempts). Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -160 | 5-2 | Loss | -160 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Dallas at 9:45 pm et on Monday. I fully expect a strong bounce-back effort from the Avalanche following a brutal performance in Game 1 of this series on Saturday night. The Avs certainly got caught flat-footed in that contest. As head coach Jared Bednar alluded to following the game, "half of the team didn't show up to play." Now Colorado is dealing with a few key injury concerns but no team is immune to that in the playoffs and I think we'll see the Avs rally around those injuries. The Stars 'run and gun' style of play has paid off at times in these playoffs, but as we saw in Game 1, even with the Avs not bringing their best effort they were still able to find the back of the net three times. Look for the Avs to even up this series on Monday night. Take Colorado (10*). |
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08-24-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -175 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the chalk to back the Cardinals behind their ace Jack Flaherty on Monday night. Because Flaherty started the season injured, he hasn't been talked about much. Since returning he's made two starts, working 8 2/3 innings and giving up just three earned runs while posting a 9:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Remember, he was fourth in N.L. Cy Young award voting last year and an impressive 13th in MLB MVP award voting. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. He has yet to allow an earned run in 17 2/3 innings of work this season. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season but so are his walks. He has yet to give up a home run and is allowing just 4.1 hits per nine innings but those stats aren't sustainable. By comparison, he gave up 8.4 hits per nine innings last season, recording a 4.19 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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08-24-20 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 216.5 | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Miami at 6:30 pm et on Monday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series to this point (by today's NBA standards at least). I look for some carry-over from Game 4 on Monday, however, noting that Saturday's game reached a series-high 239 total points. This is it for the Pacers. They'll be in desperation mode on Monday and they at the very least have proven they can score against Miami, having put up at least 100 points in all four previous games in this series. As for Miami, it managed to score 124 points despite shooting just 45% from the field in Game 4. The Heat were certainly aggressive, however, getting to the free throw line a whopping 52 times in that contest. Expect they to make a concerted effort to close out the Pacers here, leading to a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 217 | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 9 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Friday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday. That missed call obviously had a lot to do with a slow start as well as a poor shooting performance from the Nuggets (38% from the field). Here, the Nuggets will need to bounce back with a better effort as this is a pivotal game in this series with the Jazz up 2-1. The first two games in the series easily eclipsed the total but the low-scoring Game 3 has helped keep the number in check here on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-23-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -105 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 8 pm et on Sunday. I expect the Lightning to win this series and with that in mind, I'll call for them to get it off to a strong start with a victory in the opener on Sunday. This series could very well come down to goaltending. In that department I give Tampa Bay a significant edge with Andrei Vasilevskiy. Give Jaro Halak credit for backstopping the Bruins to a series win over the Hurricanes after Tuukka Rask opted out but let's face it, Halak didn't face the Canes best after Andrei Svechnikov was sidelined due to injury. The Lightning are well-positioned to go on a Stanley Cup run in the "bubble" and I look for their talent to win out in Game 1 of this series on Sunday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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08-23-20 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' as the Red Sox and Orioles wrap up their series at Camden Yards on Sunday afternoon. Zack Godley will take the ball for the Red Sox. He is pitching for his third team since the start of last season, and for good reason. Godley continues to struggle, having posted a 6.87 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down slightly but he's still giving up far too many hits and home runs. In fact, Godley is giving up a career-high 2.5 home runs per nine innings this season. Wade LeBlanc will counter for Baltimore. His strikeouts per nine innings are up, as are his walks and he's giving up a whopping 10.8 hits per nine innings, matching last year's average. There's little reason to believe that LeBlanc will be able to keep the Red Sox bats at bay on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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08-22-20 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Francisco at 9:15 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in D'Backs starter Zac Gallen's most recent outing but I'll go the other way and back the 'over' as he faces the Giants on Saturday night. Gallen has been sharp to open the season and there's honestly not a lot bad I can say about him right now. But the fact is, he's facing a surging Giants offense that has climbed to 12th in the majors in runs per game and a tie for eighth in team batting average. They also rank 12th in home runs and Gallen has now allowed a home run in all five starts this season. Tyler Anderson continues to struggle for the Giants. His strikeouts per nine innings are down considerably from a year ago while his walks per nine innings sit at a disappointing 4.8 - the same number he posted last year. While his home runs allowed per nine innings are down that's only because he went from making most of his starts at Coors Field with the Rockies to a more pitcher-friendly park here in San Fran. Take the over (10*). |
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08-22-20 | Bucks v. Magic UNDER 226 | 121-107 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game by today's NBA standards in Game 2 of this series on Thursday and I look for more of the same on Saturday. The Bucks quite simply got caught flat-footed in the series-opener and Orlando took full advantage. After making the necessary adjustments, Milwaukee was able to hold the Magic to a miserable 35% shooting overall and 21% from beyond the arc in Game 2. I'm not convinced we see a big bounce-back performance from Orlando in that regard here. The Bucks will get theirs offensively but I'm not sure they'll need to keep their foot on the gas right to the final whistle. Take the under (10*). |
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08-21-20 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Kansas City on Friday night as we have an underrated pitching matchup between Jake Odorizzi and Danny Duffy. It may come as a surprise that Odorizzi was a 15-game winner a year ago, earning a spot in the A.L. All-Star team. He's had a bit of tough luck so far this season, giving up far more home runs than usual but his strikeouts per nine innings are up and his walks are down compared to his career year in 2019. He handled the Royals in a seven-inning double-header game last week and should find some success again here. Duffy has been a middle of the road pitcher over the course of his career but has shown signs of breaking out so far this season. His strikeouts have climbed to a career-high 10.4 per nine innings while his walks are a respectable 2.6 per nine innings. He has also given up a career-best 5.9 hits per nine innings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-21-20 | Flyers -130 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
NHL First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Canadiens stunned the Flyers and staved off elimination on Wednesday night but paid a price in doing so with Brendan Gallagher suffering a broken jaw on what most would consider a very dirty play. While Montreal will certainly have all the motivation in the world to force a seventh and deciding game, I don't expect it to pull it off. It seems that it's been 'all or nothing' for the Habs in these playoffs. Keep in mind, they've scored a grand total of one goal in their three losses so far in this series but a whopping 10 goals in their two victories. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from Flyers goaltender Carter Hart who would be the first to admit he wasn't good in Game 5. I don't think there's any question Philadelphia is the superior team in this matchup, even if it hasn't shown it at times. Give the Canadiens all the credit in the world for getting this far, but I think their playoff journey ends on Friday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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08-21-20 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 2-11 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Phillies are coming off a wild double-header sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays yesterday, which included blowing a 7-0 lead in Game 2. Here, I look for a lower-scoring affair as we have an excellent pitching matchup between Aaron Nola and Max Fried. Nola is having a career-year (even though it's early). His strikeouts per nine innings are way up, hitting 12.6 while his walks are down to a career low 1.4 per nine innings. He's also giving up fewer home runs and just north of four hits per nine innings. After struggling with his command in his first two big league seasons, Max Fried has seemingly got it under control since last year. Through five starts this season he has posted an impressive 1.24 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly while his walks are up a shade, but he has yet to allow a home run in 29 innings and is giving up just 5.3 hits per nine innings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | 87-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 4 pm et on Friday. We've won with the 'over' in each of the first two games in this series and there's no reason to stray from our thinking here. We can expect to see major pushback from the Nuggets after their poor showing in Game 2. There were positives for them to take away from that blowout loss as they did ultimately shoot 46% from the field and 48% from three-point range. Here, I look for them to push the pace a little more and force the issue against a beatable Jazz defense. Utah turned in an incredibly clean performance in Game 2, dishing out 32 assists compared to only six turnovers. The Jazz also got whatever they wanted in the paint, holding a 48-28 scoring edge. At some point you have to figure we'll see an adjustment to this total but so far the oddsmakers are holding steady. I believe the number will prove too low once again. Take the over (10*). |
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08-20-20 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. A's | 1-5 | Loss | -141 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. It's not easy to go against the A's these days but in this spot, I'm willing to take a flyer on the D'Backs with an insurance run. Alex Young will get the nod for Arizona. He has made eight appearances this season but only one start after 15 of his 17 appearances last year were starts. Note that his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down considerably. Last season, Young recorded a solid 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. He's been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, allowing north of 12 hits per nine innings. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up compared to his injury-shortened 2019 season. While the D'Backs aren't known as a prolific offensive club they did enter last night's action ranked tied for ninth in runs per game and tied for seventh in batting average (MLB ranks). Take Arizona +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-20-20 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' on Thursday as the Reds and Cardinals match up in what has the potential to be a pitcher's duel. Sonny Gray will take the ball for Cincinnati. He's arguably been the best pitcher in baseball this season, building off what was a terrific 2019 campaign. Keep in mind, he was an All-Star and finished seventh in N.L. Cy Young voting last season. So far this year, Gray's strikeouts per nine innings are up significantly while his walks are down. He's also allowing a career-low hits per nine innings. While we're certainly dealing with a small sample size, Cards veteran starter Adam Wainwright is off to a solid start as well. His strikeouts are down to 6.5 per nine innings but he's done an excellent job of limiting good contact, having yet to give up a home run and a career-low 4.1 hits per nine innings. Note that the Reds entered last night's action sitting tied for 19th in runs per game and 25th in team batting average. Take the under (10*). |
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08-20-20 | Islanders +101 v. Capitals | 4-0 | Win | 101 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. My initial lean was admittedly to the Capitals in this one but after giving it some further thought, I'm going to go the other way and back the Islanders as they look to close out the series on Thursday night. The Isles might have got caught looking ahead after jumping out to a 2-0 lead in Game 4 two nights ago. That's a mistake I'm sure they learned from as you simply can't let your foot off the proverbial throat of a team as experienced and talented as the Capitals. Here, I expect to see a sharper, more complete effort from New York. I think this is a game where we'll see Isles head coach Barry Trotz make the necessary adjustments and provide the motivation (not that it's needed at this point) for his players to turn in their best performance of the series. That's what will be necessary to wrap things up on Thursday night. Take New York (10*). |
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08-20-20 | Heat -4 v. Pacers | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 1 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Heat in Game 1 of this series and we'll come right back with them again in Game 2 on Thursday afternoon. This is a mismatch as far as I'm concerned, even if it didn't look that way in the early stages of the series-opener. Once the Heat settled in they were able to essentially do whatever they wanted and ultimately stretch out the margin against the Pacers in Game 1. There's little reason to expect anything different on Thursday. The 'zig-zag theory' produced a 3-1 ATS record in yesterday's playoff contests, but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday. Take Miami (10*). |
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08-19-20 | Astros v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | 13-6 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll go the contrarian route once again and back the 'under' as the Astros and Rockies shift their series to Coors Field on Wednesday night. Framber Valdez will take the ball for Houston. He's off to a terrific start in his third big league season. Valdez has seen his strikeouts per nine innings go up while his walks per nine innings have dropped significantly. He's also giving up fewer hits and home runs. Meanwhile, Rockies rookie Ryan Castellani has pitched well in limited action so far this season, allowing just two hits and one earned run in 8 2/3 innings of work. We won with the 'under' in his most recent start, a 3-2 loss to the Rangers last week. While the Astros did enter yesterday's action ranking tied for eighth in baseball in runs per game, they were just 17th in batting average and 22nd in slugging percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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08-19-20 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -149 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Carolina at 4 pm et on Wednesday. The Bruins have been a different team since goaltender Tuukka Rask opted out of the NHL Playoffs this past Saturday morning. Since then, they've gone 2-0, outscoring the Canes by a 7-3 margin and outshooting them 72-49. If we were going to see some pushback from Carolina it would have come in Game 4 on Monday. While the Canes did jump out to a 2-0 lead, they didn't seem to be the aggressors. The Bruins essentially toyed with them in the final period, scoring four unanswered goals. While I'm not a big believer in momentum, I do feel Boston is well-positioned to keep rolling here. Carolina looked like an awfully deep team against the Rangers last round but that depth has been tested with Andrei Svechnikov sidelined, shaking up their lines significantly. They haven't been able to truly recover and won't here. Take Boston (10*). |
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08-19-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Denver at 4 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 in this series eclipsed the total with ease and while the oddsmakers have raised the total slightly for Game 2, I don't believe it will be enough. It's interesting that the series-opener got to a whopping 260 points despite the fact there were only 32 made free throws in the game. Both teams got all the open looks they wanted and I don't see a whole lot changing here in Game 2. The Jazz are obviously going to need more production from players not named Donovan Mitchell after he poured in 57 points in Game 1. I'm expecting Utah to do a much better job of capitalizing on its opportunities at the offensive end of the floor, noting that it did pull in 16 offensive boards on Monday. Meanwhile, the Jazz didn't have an answer for the Nuggets offense last time out and I don't see much changing on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-19-20 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +107 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. I don't feel the Blue Jays have any business being favored in this game and can certainly see the line moving before first pitch on Wednesday afternoon Tanner Roark will take the ball for Toronto. Roark is pitching for his fourth different team since the start of 2018, which is telling. He hasn't pitched particularly well with any of those teams and is off to another tough start this season. Note that his strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are way up (6.8 per nine innings). He allowed a career-high 2.3 home runs per nine innings this season and has matched that number so far this season. Tommy Milone will counter for Baltimore. He was on the wrong end of a 15-3 loss to the Nationals in his last start. However, he has actually been fairly effective this season, with his strikeouts per nine innings up and his walks down. He has also finally been able to keep the ball in the park, allowing just 0.5 home runs per nine innings - a career-low even if we are talking about a small sample size. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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08-18-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -185 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Chicago at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday. |
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08-18-20 | A's v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Arizona at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' as the A's and D'Backs do battle in a late afternoon affair on Tuesday. Frankie Montas will take the ball for Oakland. While he has posted a 1.57 ERA through four starts this season his strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up compared to the last two seasons. He's yet to give up a single home run but that's obviously not a sustainable trend. Luke Weaver will counter for Arizona. He has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, allowing north of 14 hits per nine innings, not to mention a ridiculous 4.6 home runs. While Weaver's strikeouts are up, so are his walks issued. Needless to say he's going to face a tough challenge in the hot hitting A's on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-18-20 | Heat -4.5 v. Pacers | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 4 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Heat as they open their first round playoff series with the Pacers on Tuesday afternoon. This will actually be the third meeting in just over a week between these two teams with each side winning one of those matchups. Both games were ultimately blowouts but we can put a lot more stock in Miami's 114-92 win back on August 10th as the second matchup saw most key cogs sit. The Pacers have enjoyed a nice run here in the "bubble" but I'm much higher on the Heat and had this line pegged 1.5 points higher than we're dealing with at the time of writing. Take Miami (10*). |
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08-17-20 | A's v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. |
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08-17-20 | Giants v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair between the Giants and Angels on Monday night in Anaheim. Tyler Anderson will take the ball for San Francisco. He has yet to make it more than five innings in any of his three starts this season. Note that Anderson's strikeouts per nine innings are way down from his previous work with the Rockies while his walks per nine innings are up significantly to nearly six. He'll have his hands full with the Angels lineup on Monday. Griffin Canning counters for Los Angeles. He didn't have a banner rookie campaign a year ago and has struggled again in early season action here in 2020. Like Anderson, Canning's strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up. He's also allowing two home runs per nine innings. Off a tough weekend series against the red hot A's, look for the Giants to do some damage at the plate tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-20 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 14-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
**NO PLAY DUE TO PITCHING CHANGE** My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Texas at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Rangers entered Sunday's action ranking 29th in baseball in runs per game but ninth in runs allowed per contest. Expect another low-scoring game featuring the Rangers here as they send Mike Minor to the hill against Zach Davies. Minor's overall numbers aren't great but it's worth noting his strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly while his home runs and hits allowed per nine innings are down compared to last year as well. He needs to work on his command but I do think that will turn around. Davies has been terrific for the Padres, posting a career high in strikeouts per innings and a career low walks per nine innings in the early going. Take the under (10*). |
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08-17-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Clippers in the opener of their series with the Mavericks on Monday night. After getting off to a rocky start here at Disney dropping two of their first three contests, the Clippers turned it around winning four of their last five. That included a 15-point rout of the Mavericks on August 6th. Dallas has been marred by inconsistent play, particularly at the defensive end of the floor, here in the "bubble" and I simply don't see it getting off to a roaring start to the playoffs against a Clippers squad that will be looking to make a statement right out of the gates. All things considered, I believe we're being asked to lay a very reasonable number with the vastly superior team on Monday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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08-17-20 | Bruins v. Hurricanes OVER 5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Carolina at 8 pm et on Monday. The Canes are going to need a much bigger push than we saw from them on Saturday afternoon if they're going to even this series up at a game apiece on Monday night. The Bruins are now without goaltender Tuukka Rask after he opted out of the NHL Playoffs earlier on Saturday. Jaro Halak is certainly a capable backup and turned aside 29 of 30 shots on Saturday. I'm just not sure we'll see that same level of performance against a more desperate Canes squad on Monday. Boston hasn't had a great deal of trouble breaking down the Canes defense in this series, mounting a huge attack with 39 shots on goal on Saturday. Expect the B's to find continued success. The Canes have one of the weaker goaltending tandems of all playoff teams. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-20 | 76ers +6 v. Celtics | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 6:30 pm et on Monday. The Celtics were red hot near the tail-end of regular season play in the "bubble", reeling off four straight wins before falling with most of their key cogs resting in their finale against the Wizards. Here, they draw a tough opening round matchup against a 76ers squad they struggled against during the regular season, dropping three of four meetings. Of course, Philadelphia is a different team without Ben Simmons. That being said, the Sixers have held up well in "bubble" action to this point, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. They've learned to play without their star guard and I believe they enter the playoffs with a big chip on their shoulder against the favored Celtics. Look for a tightly-contested affair in Game 1 on Monday. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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08-17-20 | Nets +10 v. Raptors | 110-134 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Toronto at 4 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Nets on Monday as they aim to take their first step in dethroning the defending NBA champion Raptors. While that will be a tall task indeed, here we're only looking for Brooklyn to give Toronto a run. The Raptors are generally slow starters in playoff series' having gone an absolutely dreadful 4-15 SU and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 series openers. The Nets have been one of the most undervalued commodities in the "bubble". While they have a ton of absences, there's no question they've come together and played their best basketball of the season here at Disney. The Raps win Game 1 but it should be close. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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08-16-20 | Capitals -109 v. Islanders | 1-2 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New York at 12 noon et on Sunday. The Capitals have been in each of the first two games of this series and I'm confident they make a statement with a big effort on Sunday afternoon. Give credit to the Isles for grabbing a 2-0 series lead but now things get tough as they look to take a stranglehold. Last year the Isles stunningly swept the Penguins in the opening round. I simply don't see the Caps suffering the same fate. Take Washington (10*). |
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08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -157 | 6-4 | Loss | -157 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Texas at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Rockies starter German Marquez has proven time and time again that he can tame opposing bats at hitter-friendly Coors Field and I look for him to do it again on Saturday night against the Rangers. Marquez is off to a fine start this season, even if he was unable to guide the Rockies to a win against the Mariners in his last start. His numbers are very comparable to the last two seasons, in which he has posted an impressive 26-16 record with an ERA hovering around four - not half bad for pitching the majority of his games at Coors Field. Note that Marquez has posted an ERA just north of two while also cutting his hits and home runs allowed per nine innings down considerably over a year ago. Meanwhile, Rangers starter Kyle Gibson has struggled with his new club and perhaps we should have seen that coming. His numbers have generally gotten worse over the back half of his career since he made his debut back in 2013. The Twins cut him loose after he posted a 4.84 ERA and 1.44 WHIP last season. So far this year his walks per nine innings are up while his strikeouts are down not to mention he's allowing more hits and home runs. Take Colorado (10*). |
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08-15-20 | Lightning -169 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Columbus at 7:38 pm et on Saturday. The Blue Jackets seem to be at their absolute best when facing adversity, just as we saw in Game 2 of this series after they were badly outplayed early on and fell behind 1-0. Now that they've evened this series at a game apiece, I look for a bit of a letdown from the Jackets as the Lightning's superior talent should shine through on Saturday evening in Toronto. Tampa Bay applied plenty of pressure on Columbus in Game 2, but simply didn't have any bounces go its way in an eventual 3-1 defeat. The Lightning are obviously loaded with offensive firepower and I would certainly expect to see a sharper performance on Saturday. Tampa goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy didn't bring his 'A' game in Game 2 but I do expect a solid bounce-back effort from him here. While we're being asked to lay a considerable price to back the Lightning, I do feel it is warranted. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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08-15-20 | A's v. Giants +1.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:07 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: Manaea starting for Montas for Oakland. The play remains on the Giants +1.5 at a slightly less favorable price. I'll take a shot with the Giants plus the insurance run as they try to bounce back from last night's highly disappointing extra innings loss to the A's. Oakland staged a five-run ninth inning rally in that contest, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat as they say. Here, they'll hand the ball to Frankie Montas and I feel he's become a little overvalued. Note that Montas' walks per nine innings are up this season while his strikeouts are down slightly. Meanwhile, he's yet to allow a single home run, which as we obviously know is certainly not sustainable even if he has had a penchant for keeping the ball in the yard over the course of his young career. Veteran Kevin Gausman has actually pitched reasonably well for the Giants. In fact, he's put together a solid run since joining the Reds late last season, bumping up his strikeouts per nine innings while doing a good job of keeping his walks down (he's issuing just 0.9 walks per nine innings this season). Keep in mind, the A's check in ranked T24 in hits per game and 27th in batting average. Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 2-6 | Win | 105 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. Unlike last night when we saw two back of the rotation starters go head-to-head in the opener of this series, I expect to see a much more impressive pitching matchup on Saturday night as the Mets send Steven Matz to the hill against the Phillies Aaron Nola. Matz' overall numbers so far this season are awful as he has gone 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Keep in mind, he did allow just four earned runs over 11 1/3 innings of work in his first two starts before getting lit up over his last two outings. Remember, Matz finished sixth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting back in 2016 and save for a poor 2017 campaign has generally pitched well at this level. Even this year he has slightly increased his strikeouts per nine innings while reducing his walks per nine innings considerably over last season. Aaron Nola has been the Phillies ace so far, posting a 2.79 ERA and incredible 0.62 WHIP through three starts. He's striking out a whopping 13.5 batters per nine innings while issuing just 0.9 walks. Just two years ago he finished third in N.L. Cy Young voting and even reached the MVP ballot. Take the under (10*). |
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08-15-20 | Bruins -111 v. Hurricanes | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Carolina at 12:08 pm et on Saturday. 10:20 am et update: Note Bruins G Tuukka Rask has opted out of the NHL Playoffs. That means Jaro Halak will be in goal for Boston today. I’ll stick with the play on the Bruins as Halak is one of the league‘s better backups. Bruins goaltender Tuukka Rask caused quite a stir when he suggested that the atmosphere feels like that of exhibition games during these NHL Playoffs, obviously being played without fans in the "bubble" in Toronto. The Bruins certainly didn't bring their 'A' game in Game 2 of this series after prevailing in overtime in the series-opener. With that being said, the Hurricanes still needed to hang on for dear life to secure a narrow 3-2 victory in Game 2 to even up the series. Here, I look for the Bruins to bounce back on the strength of a big performance from Rask in goal as they get a leg up in Game 3 on Saturday afternoon. Take Boston (10*). |
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08-14-20 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +120 | 1-5 | Win | 120 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The D'Backs are coming off an encouraging series win over the Rockies at Coors Field and I look for them to build on that showing in Friday's series-opener against the Padres. San Diego starter Dinelson Lamet is off to an incredible start this season and will be facing Arizona for the third time already. I simply feel some regression is in order, noting that he posted a 4.57 ERA in his rookie campaign in 2017 before recording a 4.07 ERA in 14 starts last year. He's been doing a much better job of keeping the ball in the park through four starts this season, allowing just 0.4 home runs per nine innings. I'm just not convinced we'll see that continue. Merrill Kelly is off to a fine start for the D'Backs this season as well. He was a workhorse in his rookie campaign last year, making 32 starts while posting a 4.42 ERA. While his strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly, his walks are also down significantly as he's issued 0.5 free passes per nine innings through his first three outings this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
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08-14-20 | Rangers v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. I'll take the contrarian route and back the 'under' as the Rangers and Rockies open up their series in Denver on Friday night. The Rangers aren't the offensive powerhouse they once were. While they did plate seven runs in a win over the Mariners two nights ago, they've scored more than seven runs in a game on only one occasion this season and rank tied for 28th in the majors in runs scored per game at 3.6. Somewhat surprisingly, they find themselves in the top half of the majors in fewest runs allowed per game. Rockies rookie Ryan Castellani made his big league debut on August 8th, not allowing a single hit while striking out three and walking one over four innings. Veteran Lance Lynn takes the ball for the Rangers. He's been more than serviceable over the last couple of seasons and is off to an alright start this year as well. While he's issued a lot more walks than I would like, I do expect him to pitch reasonably well here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-14-20 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Expect plenty of runners on base and ultimately runs on the board as the Braves and Marlins open their series in Miami on Friday night. Kyle Wright will take the ball for the Braves. He previously had a cup of coffee at the big league level over the last two seasons, making 11 combined appearances in 2018 and 2019. He struggled in those outings and has picked up right where he left off this year, recording a 6.75 ERA and 2.08 WHIP through 12 innings of work. After issuing a whopping 5.9 walks per nine innings in seven appearances last year he's inexplicably been even worse in limited work so far this season, handing out 7.5 walks per nine innings. Pablo Lopez will counter for Miami. His numbers this season are just fine, but he's worked just 10 innings and has a poor track record at the big league level. He posted an ERA north of five in 21 starts last season. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up through two appearances this year, so are his walks. In this matchup of two teams than rank top-10 in baseball in runs per game, I'll back the 'over' on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-14-20 | Canucks v. Blues -138 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -138 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Vancouver at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Everyone seems quick to anoint the Canucks as a serious Stanley Cup contender after its 5-2 win in the opener of this series with the defending champion Blues. While St. Louis has yet to taste victory in the 'bubble' in Edmonton, it hasn't been for lack of trying. Keep this in mind; the Blues have held third period leads in three of their four postseason contests. The only game where they didn't was the opener of this series, which was tied 2-2 entering the third period. This is the first true adversity the Blues have faced in Edmonton and I'm confident they'll respond with a strong performance on Friday. Let's not forget that Vancouver is still a young team with little playoff experience. It would certainly not be unusual to see the Canucks suffer a bit of a letdown here in Game 2 on Friday. We're being offered a discount price to back the defending champions in my opinion. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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08-14-20 | Canadiens v. Flyers -153 | 5-0 | Loss | -153 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Montreal at 3:08 pm et on Friday. We won with the Flyers in Game 1 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Friday. While I'm not sure Philadelphia brought its true 'A' game in the opener of this series, it certainly played well enough to plant serious seeds of doubt in the minds of the Canadiens. I liked the fact that the Flyers kept pouring it on even with a 2-1 lead in the third period, outshooting the Habs by a 13-6 margin in that frame. As far as I'm concerned, Philadelphia is the team to beat in the Eastern Conference while the Habs are very fortunate to still be playing here in mid-August. Expect Montreal to face another uphill battle trying to solve Carter Hart on Friday afternoon. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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08-13-20 | Flames v. Stars -103 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Calgary at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. The Stars have yet to really show up in Edmonton, struggling through the preliminary round robin and again in the opener of this series with the Flames. I do expect them to bring their best effort of the postseason so far on Thursday night, however, as they desperately need to find a spark or this series could be over in a hurry. The Stars could get a boost with the possible return of goaltender Ben Bishop on Thursday night. Even if he can't go, it's not as if Dallas is completely outmatched in goal with veteran Anton Khudobin capable of delivering a clutch performances. Dallas' best players have been virtually invisible to this point, but look for them to step to the forefront in a big victory on Thursday night. Take Dallas (10*). |
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08-13-20 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. While both of these offenses are off to terrific starts this season, I'm comfortable playing the 'under' with the oddsmakers hanging out a generous total in Thursday's series finale. Chris Paddack will take the ball for the Padres. Few starters have been more consistent than Paddack in the early going this season as he has already worked 22 2/3 innings, posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly compared to his rookie campaign last year, but so are his walks. In fact, he's handed out only three free passes so far this season. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He has seen the 'over' cash in two of his first three starts but keep in mind, he's been opposed by the likes of Drew Smyly, Luke Weaver and Jeff Samardzija. Here, he's in line for a pitcher's duel with Paddack. Urias had his start pushed back a night as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts tries to manage workload during a 17-game in 17-night stretch. After posting a stellar 2.49 ERA in 37 appearances, mostly as a reliever, last year he's off to another fine start here in 2020, having recorded a 2.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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08-13-20 | Nationals +119 v. Mets | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New York at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll take a shot with the Nationals at a generous price on Thursday afternoon in New York. The Nats will be looking to bounce back from last night's 11-6 loss to the Mets and I believe they're in good position to do so. Austin Voth will take the ball for Washington. While he was worked just five innings in both of his previous starts this season, he has pitched well, allowing just two earned runs on six hits over 10 innings. Keep in mind, he made eight starts and nine appearances last season and was effective, posting a 3.30 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While his strikeouts per nine innings are down in limited work this season, so are his walks. Rookie David Peterson will counter for New York. He'll be making his fourth start and like Voth, he has also pitched reasonably well. The one difference is that Peterson has struggled with his command, issuing over three walks per nine innings and posting a 1.32 WHIP. With the Nats offense showing signs of life thanks in large part to Juan Soto heating up in the middle of the order, I look for them to do some damage at the plate today. Take Washington (10*). |
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08-12-20 | Canadiens v. Flyers -155 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Montreal at 8 pm et on Wednesday. |
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08-12-20 | Canadiens v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Philadelphia at 8 pm et on Wednesday. |
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08-12-20 | Cubs v. Indians UNDER 8 | 7-2 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Wednesday. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has put together a rock solid big league career and he's off to another fine start here in 2020. Consistency has been key over the course of Hendricks' seven-year career as he has never posted an ERA north of 3.95 in a season, with that career-high number coming way back in 2015. It's easy to forget that Hendricks was actually third in N.L. Cy Young voting back in 2016. So far this year he has issued just 0.9 walks per nine innings and allowed only eight earned runs on 17 hits through 20 1/3 innings of work. Likewise, Cookie Carrasco has been terrific for the Indians, working exactly six innings in each of his first three outings, allowing just five earned runs on 12 hits. Take the under (10*). |
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08-12-20 | White Sox -111 v. Tigers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. The White Sox bounced back from a series-opening loss with a blowout victory here in the Motor City last night and I expect to see them build on that performance in a quick turn-around spot on Wednesday afternoon. The Tigers had a huge series in Pittsburgh over the weekend, plating a whopping 30 runs over the course of a three-game sweep. While Detroit is off to a fine start this season, we're still talking about a small sample size and in the long-run, I believe the White Sox will prove to be the better of these A.L. Central rivals. Dylan Cease will take the ball for Chicago on Wednesday. After struggling in his season debut, Cease has pitched well over his last two starts, allowing just seven hits and two earned runs over 11 innings. This is more of a play against Tigers starter Matthew Boyd, however. I guess you could say he had a career year last season but that's not saying much as he went 9-12 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 32 starts. In that campaign he saw his walks per nine innings drop while his strikeouts per nine innings went up significantly. Here so far in 2020 we've seen a reversal of that and not surprisingly his numbers bear it out with a 9.20 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Take Chicago (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Vegas at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel we're going to see a much tighter series between these two teams than we did with the Blackhawks against the Oilers in the play-in round. I have a lot of respect for the Golden Knights defensively and fully expect them to do a good job of locking down the Blackhawks admittedly explosive offense. On the flip side, we really haven't seen the Knights get rolling offensively yet and to be honest, I don't think they're built to win many 5-4 or 6-5 type contests. Look for this to be the highest posted total we see all series. We'll take advantage in Game 1. Take the under (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -105 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Rockies on Tuesday night. D'Backs starter Zac Gallen has done nothing but impress since making his big league debut last season but I believe he's in for a rough night here. Note that while Gallen's strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly early on this season, so are his walks. While his 2.81 ERA is terrific, he has already been tagged for three home runs through 16 innings of work. Enter Coors Field on Tuesday night. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He endured a disastrous 2019 campaign but let's not write him off just yet. Keep in mind, just two years ago Freeland posted a stellar 2.85 ERA in 33 big league starts. So far this season he has recorded a 2.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 18 2/3 innings. He's seen his walk totals drop under three per nine innings for the first time in his career. Take Colorado (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks as the Cubs and Indians do battle in a 2016 World Series rematch on Tuesday. Jon Lester is off to a tremendous start for the Cubs this season, perhaps turning back the hands of time after struggling last year. I'm not sure his success is sustainable. He's not missing a lot of bats and faces a tough Indians lineup here on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Adam Plutko is nothing more than a stop-gap for Cleveland as it goes through some starting rotation woes. He's been routinely owned by opposing bats over the course of his big league career, struggling as a starter in each of the last two seasons. He has posted a solid 2.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP so far this season, but that's through just seven innings of work. Take the over (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Nationals v. Mets +135 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mets got absolutely thrashed by the Nationals last night but I look for them to bounce back here at Citi Field on Tuesday. Max Scherzer returns from a hamstring injury for the Nats'. I'm simply not buying what the Nats' ace is selling so far this season as his walk totals are way up and he has generally looked quite ordinary through three starts. Meanwhile, Mets journeyman starter Rick Porcello tossed seven strong innings, allowing just one earned run, against the Nats' last week and I'm confident we'll see a solid effort from him again here. The oddsmakers are giving Scherzer too much runway with this inflated price. Take New York (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Royals v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 103 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I had a strong lean to the 'under' in Royals rookie Kris Bubic's most recent start, which ultimately turned out to be a 6-1 loss to the Cubs. Here, I look for plenty of offense as the suddenly surging Royals travel to Cincinnati to face the Reds. Bubic missed plenty of bats against the Cubs last time out but I'm not sure his success is sustainable. He'll be making his first road start of the season. Note that he made one start away from home back in Spring Training and got lit up for four earned runs and couldn't make it out of the second inning against the White Sox. Luis Castillo will counter for the Reds. His strikeout numbers are up so far this season but he has also been hit hard, allowing 18 hits and nine earned runs in 17 innings of work. After issuing just 2.6 walks per nine innings in 2018, Castillo handed out 3.7 last year and that number is up over three again so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Marlins +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Toronto at 6:37 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a flyer with the Marlins here as the Blue Jays face some considerable distraction as they play their first "home" game here at renovated Sahlen Field in Buffalo. Toronto continues to struggle out of the gates this season, never really recovering from an early layoff as a result of a postponed series with the Phillies. The Jays will have ace Hyun-Jin Ryu on the hill for this one but I can't help but feel that leaves them overvalued, especially with Ryu coming off a strong bounce-back performance against the Braves last week. Elieser Hernandez looked good in his season debut for the Marlins and I believe he'll be good enough to keep the Marlins in this game as well. Take Miami +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-10-20 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The A's are off to a terrific start this season, currently running away with the A.L. West division lead. They've been doing it with solid pitching, sitting in a tie for third in baseball in runs allowed per game. They rank just 23rd in the majors in both batting average and slugging percentage and I'm not convinced they'll rack up a ton of runs in the opener of this series in Anaheim. Julio Teheran will take the ball for the Angels. He struggled in his debut with his new club but is certainly capable of bouncing back here, noting that he has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last two seasons as a member of the Braves. Like Teheran, A's starter Sean Manaea is also off to a tough start this season, albeit with a larger sample size. It is worth noting, however, that his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down. Keep in mind, he posted an incredible 1.21 ERA in just five starts last season. Two years ago he made 27 starts for the A's and recorded a solid 3.59 ERA. The Angels check in 24th in baseball in batting average and 17th in slugging percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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08-09-20 | Rockies v. Mariners OVER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. Off a low-scoring contest last night I look for a little more offense in Sunday's series finale between the Rockies and Mariners in Seattle. German Marquez is off to a stellar start this season having posted a 1.89 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in 19 innings of work but I'm not sure those numbers are sustainable. The Mariners know they'll need to get something done at the dish if they're going to contend with the hot hitting Rockies here today. That's especially true when you consider they'll hand the ball to rookie Justus Sheffield, who has really struggled, posting a 9.39 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, lasting only 7 2/3 innings so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-08-20 | Flyers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the under between Philadelphia and Tampa Bay at 8 pm et on Saturday. We won with the under in the Flyers last game and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with same play here. Carter Hart should be back between the pipes for Philadelphia and I’m confident he’ll turn in another stellar performance. In fact, this game features two of the world’s absolute best goaltenders in Hart and Andrei Vasilevskiy. With the number one overall seed (and a date with the Canadiens) hanging in the balance look for a tightly-contested affair on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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08-07-20 | Astros v. A's +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The A's are off to an incredible 9-4 start this season, pacing the A.L. West. Meanwhile, Houston continues to scuff its heels, sitting at 6-6. The Astros will obviously be looking to put some pressure on the A's over the course of this weekend series but I like Oakland in the opener on Friday night. Zack Greinke will take the ball for Houston. He pitched well last time out after struggling in his season debut. Note that he's worked just nine innings through two starts, allowing seven hits and five earned runs. Chris Bassitt will counter for Oakland. He has posted a 0.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through two starts this season. Bassitt has actually been quite consistent at the big league level, most recently going 10-5 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP last season. In three seasons where he has made at least 11 appearances he has posted a 3.81 ERA or better. Take Oakland (10*). |
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08-07-20 | Penguins v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Montreal at 4:08 pm et on Friday. With Montreal coming off a stunning come-from-behind 4-3 victory in Game 3 of this series I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair on Friday afternoon. We have the heavily favored Penguins facing elimination in this one which alone should help tighten things up on their end. Meanwhile, the Habs have received all-world goaltending from Carey Price in this series, even if Game 3 wasn't his best performance. I fully expect that to continue here as the Habs look to close things out. Look for the winner to score three or less in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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08-07-20 | Penguins -165 v. Canadiens | 0-2 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Montreal at 4:08 pm et on Friday. While the possibility of getting the first overall pick in the NHL Draft is certainly a consideration for some teams here in the qualifying round of the playoffs, I don't believe that's the case for the Penguins, who entered the tournament with Stanley Cup aspirations. Here, on Sidney Crosby's 33rd birthday of all days, I certainly look for a strong effort from the Pens facing elimination. Credit Montreal for coming up with a huge rally to grab a 2-1 series lead two nights ago but as we saw following Game 1, the Habs are certainly ripe for a letdown. I don't believe the price is unreasonable to back the Pens in this elimination contest. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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08-06-20 | Brewers v. White Sox OVER 9 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a pitching duel in this matchup last night as the Brewers prevailed by a 1-0 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Josh Lindblom will take the ball for Milwaukee. He labored through this first start this season and I expect more of the same here. Note that he has made more than a single start in a season only once in his career, that coming back in 2013 when he made five starts for the Rangers, ultimately posting a 5.46 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in eight appearances that year. Gio Gonzalez will counter for the White Sox. He's coming off a fine outing but there's no question he's on the downside of his career arc, managing only 23 starts since 2018 due to injuries and otherwise. He has yet to last through the fourth inning in two starts so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-20 | Maple Leafs v. Blue Jackets +135 | 3-4 | Win | 135 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus over Toronto at 8:08 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the Blue Jackets in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them at another generous price on Thursday. Toronto was in desperation mode after falling behind in the series 1-0 and played as such on Tuesday, turning in one of its best performances of the entire season. I'm just not sure the Leafs can recreate that effort with the series tied at one game apiece on Thursday. As I've noted before, Columbus is an extremely well-coached and well-rounded team with enough veteran leadership to get it done in the postseason - as we saw when it swept the Lightning in the opening round a year ago. I look for the Jackets to continue to be a tough out in this series. Take Columbus (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-08-20 | Brewers v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
09-07-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -147 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 49.5 | 55-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis UNDER 74 | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 94 h 48 m | Show | |
09-05-20 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army OVER 55 | 0-42 | Loss | -108 | 88 h 35 m | Show | |
09-04-20 | Rockies +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
09-04-20 | Brewers v. Indians -146 | 7-1 | Loss | -146 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
09-04-20 | Stars +117 v. Avalanche | 5-4 | Win | 117 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
09-03-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss UNDER 53.5 | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 54 h 19 m | Show | |
09-03-20 | Flyers v. Islanders -115 | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
09-02-20 | Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 6 | 4-1 | Win | 109 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
09-02-20 | Tigers v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 221 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
09-02-20 | Giants v. Rockies -127 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
09-01-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | 78-80 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
09-01-20 | Cardinals v. Reds -147 | 16-2 | Loss | -147 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
08-31-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -133 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
08-31-20 | Bruins +104 v. Lightning | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
08-31-20 | Cardinals +106 v. Reds | Top | 7-5 | Win | 106 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
08-30-20 | Avalanche -130 v. Stars | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | 112-94 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
08-29-20 | Golden Knights v. Canucks UNDER 6 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
08-29-20 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 223 | 122-131 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
08-28-20 | Pirates +1.5 v. Brewers | 1-9 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
08-26-20 | Avalanche -137 v. Stars | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
08-26-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -168 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
08-26-20 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
08-26-20 | Islanders v. Flyers -108 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
08-25-20 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks +109 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
08-25-20 | A's -156 v. Rangers | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
08-25-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -106 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
08-25-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 221 | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
08-24-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -160 | 5-2 | Loss | -160 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
08-24-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -175 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
08-24-20 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 216.5 | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
08-23-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 217 | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
08-23-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -105 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
08-23-20 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
08-22-20 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
08-22-20 | Bucks v. Magic UNDER 226 | 121-107 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
08-21-20 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
08-21-20 | Flyers -130 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
08-21-20 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 2-11 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | 87-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
08-20-20 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. A's | 1-5 | Loss | -141 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
08-20-20 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
08-20-20 | Islanders +101 v. Capitals | 4-0 | Win | 101 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
08-20-20 | Heat -4 v. Pacers | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
08-19-20 | Astros v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | 13-6 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show | |
08-19-20 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -149 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
08-19-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
08-19-20 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +107 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
08-18-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -185 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
08-18-20 | A's v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
08-18-20 | Heat -4.5 v. Pacers | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
08-17-20 | A's v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
08-17-20 | Giants v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
08-17-20 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 14-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
08-17-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
08-17-20 | Bruins v. Hurricanes OVER 5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
08-17-20 | 76ers +6 v. Celtics | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
08-17-20 | Nets +10 v. Raptors | 110-134 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
08-16-20 | Capitals -109 v. Islanders | 1-2 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -157 | 6-4 | Loss | -157 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
08-15-20 | Lightning -169 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
08-15-20 | A's v. Giants +1.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
08-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 2-6 | Win | 105 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
08-15-20 | Bruins -111 v. Hurricanes | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
08-14-20 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +120 | 1-5 | Win | 120 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
08-14-20 | Rangers v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
08-14-20 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
08-14-20 | Canucks v. Blues -138 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -138 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
08-14-20 | Canadiens v. Flyers -153 | 5-0 | Loss | -153 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
08-13-20 | Flames v. Stars -103 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
08-13-20 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
08-13-20 | Nationals +119 v. Mets | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
08-12-20 | Canadiens v. Flyers -155 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
08-12-20 | Canadiens v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
08-12-20 | Cubs v. Indians UNDER 8 | 7-2 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
08-12-20 | White Sox -111 v. Tigers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
08-11-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
08-11-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -105 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
08-11-20 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
08-11-20 | Nationals v. Mets +135 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
08-11-20 | Royals v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 103 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
08-11-20 | Marlins +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
08-10-20 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
08-09-20 | Rockies v. Mariners OVER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
08-08-20 | Flyers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
08-07-20 | Astros v. A's +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
08-07-20 | Penguins v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
08-07-20 | Penguins -165 v. Canadiens | 0-2 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
08-06-20 | Brewers v. White Sox OVER 9 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
08-06-20 | Maple Leafs v. Blue Jackets +135 | 3-4 | Win | 135 | 11 h 30 m | Show |