Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-27-20 | Nebraska v. Iowa OVER 53 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Nebraska and Iowa at 1 pm et on Friday. We cashed our Big Ten Total of the Month in October with the 'under' in Iowa's 21-20 loss to Northwestern. Since then, the Hawkeyes have rattled off three straight wins, scoring 49, 35 and 41 points in the process. Iowa's offense draws another favorable matchup on Friday as Nebraska comes in off a disappointing 41-23 home loss to Illinois. The Huskers defense isn't stopping anyone right now and will certainly have their hands full once again on Friday afternoon. I do expect Nebraska to show up, however, on the strength of an offense that is better than it has showed (at least in my opinion). The Huskers took three sacks and turned the football over a whopping five times last week against Illinois, but still managed to score 23 points. Meanwhile, Iowa recorded five sacks and forced five turnovers but still gave up 21 points on the road against Penn State last Saturday. I'm not going to overthink the situation here as I expect a physical Iowa offense to make life miserable for the Huskers defense while Nebraska should stay competitive in what amounts to the biggest game left on its 2020 calendar. I do think the Huskers worst offensive performances are behind them as their schedule was front-loaded with a tough season-opening three-game slate at Ohio State, vs. Wisconsin (that game was canceled) and at Northwestern. Take the over (10*). |
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11-26-20 | New Mexico v. Utah State +6.5 | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State plus the points over New Mexico at 7 pm et on Thursday. This is by no means a marquee matchup on Thanksgiving Night as two winless Mountain West squads go head-to-head in Utah. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Aggies as this is certainly their best chance at winning a game this season as they face a Lobos team that has been living out of a suitcase all season due to Covid protocols in their home state. While Utah State had its most recent game against Wyoming canceled due to Covid-related personnel issues, we did see it show some signs of life in its prior contest, ultimately falling by a 35-16 score against Fresno State in a game that was still within reach until the fourth quarter. The Aggies obviously have major issues under center with starting QB Jason Shelley being dismissed from the program but if their offense is going to do anything on Thursday night, it's going to be on the strength of their effective ground attack. It's not as if Shelley was playing well - he was sacked six times in his most recent game and had barely managed to complete 50% of his passes while throwing only two touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. RB Jaylen Warren ran for 136 yards on just nine rush attempts in his last game and has three rushing touchdowns in three games this season. The Aggies also boast one of the best kick returners in Mountain West history as WR Savon Scarver will be looking for a record-setting sixth return touchdown on Thursday night. The Lobos were a complete no-show on the road against Air Force last week (we won with Air Force in that game) and while they would certainly love to pick themselves up off the mat here, I'm not convinced they can win outright let alone cover the lofty pointspread. Again, I want to emphasize the fact that New Mexico hasn't played a true home game all season (it's lone "home" game was played at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas against Nevada back on November 14th). I simply feel that at this stage of the season, this is a weary bunch that will be hard-pressed to put its best foot forward, even with the favorable matchup. Take Utah State (10*). |
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11-26-20 | East Tennessee State v. Austin Peay -5.5 | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Austin Peay minus the points over East Tennessee State at 2 pm et on Thursday. This looks like a layup and we certainly hope it plays out that way on the court. Austin Peay is one of the favorites, if not the favorite in the Ohio Valley Conference this season. With a ton of returning talent led by standouts Terry Taylor and Jordyn Adams who both declared for the NBA Draft before withdrawing and instead electing to return to Austin Peay for what could be a special season for the Governors, this is a team to watch in the early going. They will need to shake off some rust after posting a narrow victory in yesterday's opener against Nebraska-Omaha. East Tennessee State on the other hand has had to restock virtually the entire cupboard following a tremendous 2019-20 season that had it primed to go bracket busting in March before Covid concerns took hold. It's going to be a bit of a road back for for the Buccaneers and that was certainly evident in yesterday's blowout loss to Abilene Christian. The Bucs shot worse than 30% from the floor in that game. They were blown out despite holding a decisive edge on the boards. While we can expect some improvement in their second game, they're also facing a tougher matchup. While Belmont and Murray State gets much of the press in the Ohio Valley Conference, Austin Peay is set to stake its claim this season. Look for a convincing victory for the Governors on Thursday afternoon. Take Austin Peay (10*). |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
NFL Turkey Day Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. We frustratingly missed the mark with the 'over' in the Texans most recent game - a narrow victory over the Patriots last Sunday that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well as Houston draws an even more favorable matchup on the road against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. We noted in our analysis last week that Texans QB DeShaun Watson would likely benefit from facing little pressure against the Pats and the same holds true here as Detroit ranks last in the NFL in quarterback hit rate. Watson has certainly looked a lot more comfortable in the Texans offense since head coach Bill O'Brien was sent packing and he should enjoy another big day statistically on Thursday. Likewise, the Texans mediocre running game should flourish against a Lions defense that gives up 4.7 yards per rush. On the flip side, the Detroit offense continues to deal with key injuries, most notably to WR Kenny Golladay - the focal point of its offense. With that being said, QB Matt Stafford has seen it all and draws a favorable matchup against a weak Texans defense that is certainly worse than it showed against an inefficient Patriots offense last Sunday. Like Detroit, Houston doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks which should be music to the ears of Stafford, who is used to taking a beating in the Lions pocket. Meanwhile, the Lions ground attack sets up very well against a Texans run defense that has been virtually non-existent, allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per rush on the season. This one has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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11-25-20 | Toledo v. Bradley -158 | 59-61 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Bradley (moneyline) over Toledo at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Rather than lay the points in this spot, I'll back the Braves on the moneyline as they host Toledo on Wednesday afternoon. We're being offered a reasonable price to back Bradley, which enters the 2020-21 campaign on the heels of three straight 20-win seasons. Note that the Braves have their sights set on a third consecutive Missouri Valley Conference championship this season. With that being said, I'm confident Toledo will have their full attention here. While they do lose two of their top three scorers from a year ago, this is a program that has had no problem restocking and reloading when it comes to talent. While Toledo does return plenty of starting talent from last year's squad, it's coming off another mediocre campaign that saw it go 17-15 overall. That included a double-digit loss against Bradley. Skip the points and pay the tariff to back the Braves on the moneyline here. Take Bradley moneyline (9*). |
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11-25-20 | Real Madrid v. Inter Milan OVER 3 | 2-0 | Loss | -111 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 3 goals between Real Madrid and Inter Milan at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' the last time these two squads met in Champions League action back on November 3rd and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Keep in mind, we also cashed a ticket fading Real Madrid in its draw with Villarreal on Saturday. There's no question the absence of Real Madrid's Sergio Ramos looms large once again in this one. It's also surely worth noting that Inter Milan was without one of the world's best scorers in Lukaku the last time these teams met, yet still managed to tally a pair of markers. I'll also point out that Inter Milan has now conceded at least a goal in four consecutive matches. The last time it posted a clean sheet was against Shakhtar Donetsk on October 27th. Shakhtar has been largely disappointing in Champions League play, save for its stunning upset of Real Madrid in its opener. I'm confident we'll see both sides go on the attack in this one with a critical three points hanging in the balance in a crowded Group B. Take the over 3 goals (10*). |
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11-25-20 | Drake +5.5 v. Kansas State | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Drake plus the points over Kansas State at 2 pm et on Wednesday. I'll grab the points with Drake in this opening day showdown in Manhattan. The Bulldogs went an impressive 20-4 last season but in recent years it almost seems as if the Missouri Valley Conference has fallen out of favor with most bettors. Consider them an 'under the radar' team as we open what is sure to be a unique 2020-21 campaign. Kansas State is coming off a miserable season and while it will undoubtedly be stronger, I don't expect Bruce Weber's squad to come roaring out of the gates. Drake has the size to match up well with the Wildcats and I look for this one to go down to the wire. Take Drake (10*). |
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11-24-20 | Club Brugge KV v. Borussia Dortmund OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' 3.5 goals between Club Brugge and Borussia Dortmund at 3 pm et on Tuesday. When these teams last met in Champions League action back on November 4th, Borussia Dortmund rolled to a 3-0 victory. Club Brugge had to throw its gameplan out the window early in that contest as Dortmund scored three goals in the first 32 minutes. I do expect Brugge to contribute to the total this time around, noting that it did ultimately manage 11 shots with four of those hitting the target in that 3-0 setback, while also recording eight crosses compared to Dortmund's five. Note that Brugge had scored at least a goal in its previous two Champions League matches before the shutout loss to Dortmund. Based on how it is playing at the moment, I put Borussia Dortmund in a similar class to that of fellow Bundesliga squad Bayern Munich. In fact, Dortmund's lone defeat in its last six matches came by a 3-2 score against Bayern back on November 7th. Since then it has played just once, recording an impressive 5-2 victory over Hertha Berlin this past weekend. I have this one finishing either 3-1 or 4-1. Take the over 3.5 goals (10*). |
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11-24-20 | Barcelona FC v. FC Dynamo Kiev +0.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dynamo Kyiv +0.5 goals over Barcelona at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a shot with underdog Dynamo Kyiv in Ukraine on Tuesday. This obviously isn't the same dominant Barca side we've seen in years' past, despite the fact that it checks in sporting a perfect 3-0 Champions League record. Overall, it has just four outright wins in its last nine matches. It will be without Leo Messi on Tuesday and make no mistake, this isn't an enjoyable trip, nor is it one where a loss or draw would be back-breaking (or surprising for that matter). Kyiv had a tough draw here in the Champions League, landing in a group with not only Barca but Juventus as well. Credit it for putting up a good fight at Camp Nou earlier this month, ultimately falling by a 2-1 score against Barca. That loss was sandwiched around a 2-2 draw against Ferencvarosi and a 2-0 loss to Juventus. We have to take a bit of a leap of faith in this Tuesday match, but I believe there's a good chance we'll be rewarded for grabbing the half-goal. Take Dynamo Kyiv +0.5 goals (10*). |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between two NFC squads that believe they're Super Bowl contenders in the Rams and Bucs. Los Angeles has regained its defensive swagger here in 2020. No team has allowed fewer yards per pass attempt and the Rams have also been tough on opposing ground attacks, giving up just a shade over four yards per rush. While the Bucs exploded offensively last week (we won with Tampa Bay in that game), that was against a below average Panthers defense. Here, Tom Brady's number one job will be taking care of the football and keeping the Bucs offense on schedule with long, methodical drives down the field. On the flip side, the Rams offense draws a tough matchup against a Bucs defense that is still among the league's best, even after that poor showing in front of a national audience against the Saints two weeks ago. Rams QB Jared Goff hasn't fared well when under pressure throughout his career, and he should be under duress for much of this contest with Tampa Bay entering the week second in the NFL in sacks. I mentioned the Rams run defense earlier - the Bucs have been even better in that regard, giving up a measly three yards per rush. I just don't believe anything will come easy for these two offenses on Monday night and we're working with a reasonably high total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Packers v. Colts UNDER 51.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Indianapolis at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll continue to look for spots to play Colts 'unders' and this looks like another favorable situation on Sunday afternoon against the Packers. Green Bay faces an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the second-fewest touchdown passes in the league this season. While QB Aaron Rodgers has enjoyed a career year by many accounts, this is undoubtedly a difficult matchup and I look for Green Bay to lean heavily on its ground attack against a Colts defense that gives up over 4.3 yards per rush. On the flip side, I'm not all that high on the Colts offense, even with QB Philip Rivers enjoying a renaissance of sorts in Indianapolis. The Packers have a very opportunistic secondary led by Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, perhaps forcing Rivers into more of a game manager role in this one. You can certainly run on the Packers defense, but we've only seen the Colts ground attack truly shine in fits and starts this season with rookie Jonathan Taylor somewhat of a disappointment. This is an intriguing non-conference showdown but don't count on an offensive showcase. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Patriots v. Texans OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This one sets up as a shootout in Houston as the suddenly rejuvenated Patriots challenge the Texans. Houston's defense has been virtually non-existent this season, against both the pass and the run. The Texans aren't generating any semblance of a pass rush and that spells trouble as Pats dual-threat QB Cam Newton looks healthy again and seems to be getting stronger with each passing week. Incredibly, Houston is allowing north of 5.5 yards per rush which should really open things up for New England offense, which is admittedly a little undermanned. Meanwhile, the Houston offense has looked like a different unit since moving on from head coach Bill O'Brien. And speaking of defenses that don't get after opposing quarterbacks, the Patriots fall into that category as well. Even statuesque QB Joe Flacco was able to absolutely torch the Pats two weeks ago. There's little reason to expect anything different here. Also like the Texans, the Pats have struggled to contain opposing ground attacks, giving up 4.6 yards per rush on the season. All in all, both offenses are set up well inside ideal conditions at NRG Stadium and I'm fully expecting offensive fireworks. Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Steelers v. Jaguars OVER 46 | 27-3 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has the potential to get 'over' the total regardless the way it plays out on the field. The Steelers draw an extremely favorable matchup, particularly on the offensive side of the football where Ben Roethlisberger should feast against a Jags defense that simply doesn't generate any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. While the Pittsburgh ground game has been average at best this season it draws a Jags defense that lacks the ability to consistently slow opposing running backs. Look for a big game from RB James Conner and co., especially once the Steelers are able to build an inevitable lead in this contest. As good as the Steelers have been on defense this season, there are some soft spots for the Jags to take advantage of. Most notably, they've allowed north of 5.2 yards per rush over the last three weeks, which opens the door for Jags RB James Robinson who has enjoyed a breakout season. We've seen Jags rookie QB Jake Luton 'go for it' on a number of big play attempts over the last two weeks, building a solid rapport with WR D.J. Chark. I'm confident we see the Jags do just enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total (by today's standards). Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Steelers -10 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've seen the Steelers play down to the level of their competition time and time again over the years, and although they check in undefeated here in 2020, that has held true this season - most recently in a narrow victory over Dallas two weeks ago. Here, Pittsburgh draws an extremely favorable matchup against a very green Jaguars squad that is coming off back-to-back tight losses to the Texans and Packers. After narrowly missing out on upset wins in those games, I look for the dam to break, so to speak on Sunday afternoon. Note that Jacksonville is a shell of its former self on the defensive side of the football where it is generating little to no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Jags are giving up big play after big play to opposing offenses and that should continue against a steadily-improving Steelers offense here. Once Pittsburgh is able to build a sizable lead there's little reason to believe Jacksonville can come up with enough touchdown drives to stay within arm's reach. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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11-21-20 | San Diego State v. Nevada +1.5 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
CFB TV Game of the Month. My selection is on Nevada plus the points over San Diego State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with Nevada in last week's win but non-cover on the road against New Mexico but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Wolf Pack in a much different scenario this week, playing as a short home underdog against San Diego State. This is obviously a huge game in the Mountain West Conference, earning rare national TV billing on CBS. We've been high on Nevada all season and see this as a big-time spot for the Wolf Pack to make a statement. San Diego State successfully bounced back from its surprising home loss against San Jose State the week previous, scoring a 34-10 rout of Hawaii last Saturday. Keep in mind, the Aztecs recorded a whopping seven sacks and forced three turnovers in that game - you would almost think the eventual winning margin would have been much larger based on that. We saw some complete defensive breakdowns from Hawaii in that game, allowing two first quarter touchdown runs of 51 and 62 runs. It's unlikely we'll see those type of breakdowns from a Nevada squad whose longest touchdown allowed this season was just 22 yards back in its season-opener against Wyoming. The Wolf Pack essentially sleepwalked through their victory over New Mexico last week. At times we have seen Nevada suffer brief lapses of concentration this season but I'm confident it will be up for, and hyper-focused on the task at hand against a perennial MWC contender San Diego State this week. Note that Nevada took this matchup by a 17-13 score last year. In what should be a higher-scoring affair this time around, I like the Wolf Pack to repeat that effort. Take Nevada (10*). |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern UNDER 44.5 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Northwestern at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This game features a matchup of two of the nation's best defenses and two offenses in line for some regression on Saturday afternoon. The Badgers have scored over 40 points in both games this season, but those came against two reeling squads in Illinois and Michigan. Here, Wisconsin will face its toughest test of the season to date against an experienced Wildcats defense that has held all four opponents to 20 points or less. Northwestern scored 30 points in the first half of its season-opener against Maryland but has put up a grand total of just 82 points in three-and-a-half games since. QB Peyton Ramsey attempted 36 passes last week at Purdue. The last time he threw at least 30 passes in a game he followed it up with an 11-for-18 passing week the next game. I'm confident we'll see both teams treat their quarterbacks as game managers and rely on their ground attacks to move the football (and control the clock) in this crucial Big Ten showdown. While we're dealing with a low total by today's college football standards, I believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-20 | East Carolina -3.5 v. Temple | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on East Carolina minus the points over Temple at 12 noon et on Saturday. Few bettors will have much interest in backing either of these one-win squads on Saturday but I like East Carolina's chances of delivering a lopsided victory at Lincoln Financial Field. The Pirates have had some bad breaks on their way to a 1-6 start to the season. After starting 1-1 they suffered controversial losses in back-to-back games against Navy and Tulsa (for reasons I won't get into here). Since then, they've come up empty in three more games although not much more could have been expected against the likes of Tulsa, Tulane and Cincinnati. Here, I look for ECU to take its frustrations out on a hapless Temple squad that is a shell of its former self. The Owls lone victory this season came back on October 17th against South Florida and that feels like it happened ages ago given their current state. Temple is likely down to its fourth-string quarterback this week, and also lost arguably its best offensive player in RB Re'Mahn Davis to the transfer portal earlier this season. As expected, the Owls defense has struggled throughout the season, unable to overcome the key personnel losses from last year's team. They'll be in tough trying to contain a Pirates offense that can score in bunches and features an emerging ground game that managed 206 yards in a blowout loss at Cincinnati last week. Note that Temple ranks 96th in the nation in run defense, allowing 199 rush yards per game on north of 4.5 yards per rush. Once the Pirates are able to build a lead, I'm confident they can ultimately put the game away. Take East Carolina (10*). |
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11-21-20 | Real Madrid v. Villarreal +0.5 | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villarreal +0.5 goals (-168) over Real Madrid at 10:15 am et on Saturday. |
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11-20-20 | Purdue v. Minnesota +3 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
CFB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Purdue at 7:30 pm et on Friday. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -147 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle (moneyline) over Arizona at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. As this price continues to drop, the Seahawks are now a shoo-in for my Thursday card but rather than lay points given their defensive inefficiencies which always keep the back-door open, I'll back them on the moneyline. The Cardinals are in a clear letdown spot coming off that thrilling last-second victory over Buffalo last week. You might remember the Cards also snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the Seahawks earlier this month, putting Seattle in a clear revenge spot at home here on Thursday night. I mentioned the Seahawks defensive struggles, but lost in the Cards recent success has been their inability to slow down any opposing offense. Of course, injuries have played a big role as Arizona is missing a number of key cogs up front - most notably edge rusher Chandler Jones. Last week a road-weary Seahawks squad wasn't able to match the Rams intensity, ultimately falling in a second straight disappointing contest for their backers. Here, I look for the Seahawks to ramp back up for a big division game, and ultimately prevail in spite of Cards QB Kyler Murray's efforts. Take Seattle moneyline (10*). |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 56.5 | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This one is being pegged as a shootout and I expect precisely that type of contest to unfold as the Cardinals and Seahawks renew acquaintances on Thursday night. Arizona is of course coming off a thrilling last-second come-from-behind, hail mary-fueled win over the Bills last Sunday. There's little reason to expect any sort of slowdown from the Cardinals offense against an undermanned, struggling Seahawks defense that simply hasn't been able to get after opposing quarterbacks at all this season. With that being said, we can also expect a big, bounce-back performance from the Seahawks offense as they once again match up well against a beaten up Cards defense on Thursday. Arizona is missing a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football, particularly up front. QB Russell Wilson has been under heavy duress for much of the last two games but gets a terrific 'get-right' matchup here. It sounds like Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett will be good to go despite nursing an injury on a short week, obviously helping Wilson's cause against a Cards defense that has yet to prove it can cover the slot. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan | Top | 52-44 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
MAC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan over Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Western Michigan is coming off what some will call a miracle come-from-behind win over Toledo last week so it would be easy to suffer a bit of a letdown here on Wednesday night. I don't see that happening, however, as this is a rivalry game with Central Michigan and in this unique Covid-shortened 2020 campaign, the Broncos might need to run the table to reach the MAC Championship Game. While Central Michigan does check in 2-0 on the season, I haven't been overly impressed by either of its wins. In the Chips' first victory they recorded five sacks, forced a pair of turnovers and dominated the time of possession battle, but still won by just three points over Ohio, at home no less. Last week they rolled to a 40-10 victory over an inexperienced Northern Illinois squad that is essentially playing for next year. CMU will definitely be stepping up in class in this one, having dropped its last two meetings with WMU. The two teams are actually quite similar in a lot of ways, but I like the Broncos offense a little more at this stage of the season and believe their defense can rise to the occasion following a tough game against a good Toledo offense last week. Note that the Broncos will likely be without one of their best defenders in Ali Fayad after he suffered an ankle injury last week. I still like the Broncos here and will consider it a big bonus if he does play. Take Western Michigan (10*). |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green +31.5 | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
MAC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Bowling Green plus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Buffalo is the cream of the crop when it comes to the MAC and is already off to a perfect 2-0 start on the heels of back-to-back blowout wins, scoring 40+ points in both contests. With that being said, it's difficult to envision the Bulls truly getting up for this Tuesday night trip to Bowling Green. Note that Buffalo will enjoy a few extra days off after this one, not playing again until next Saturday. It's also worth noting that it's next two games are much bigger ones, particularly it's next one against undefeated Kent State. Bowling Green has been blown out in each of its first two games, although both contests came against upper-echelon MAC squads in Toledo and Kent State. I'm always one to look for the positives, however, and I will point out that the Falcons have allowed just two sacks through two games and have also found some success running the football. I do think that Bowling Green can move the football consistently enough to eat some clock in this game and ultimately shorten proceedings and keep things respectable against a Bulls squad that is simply looking to win and move on. We've seen virtually nothing from the Falcons passing game so far this season even though they have a Boston College transfer at quarterback in Matt McDonald - and he comes in with some knowledge of head coach Scot Loeffler's system with Loeffler having been the offensive coordinator at BC. Again looking at the positives, McDonald threw two interceptions in his Falcons debut two weeks ago but didn't toss a single pick in last week's blowout loss. Take Bowling Green (10*). |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | 19-13 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. It's not difficult to fade the Vikings in this spot as they lay points on the road following consecutive victories. I can't help but put the Vikes in the 'paper tiger' category and here they'll head to Chicago to face what is sure to be a highly-motivated Bears squad. Note that Chicago has proven to be the kryptonite for Vikes standout RB Dalvin Cook in recent years. Perhaps equally as notable, the Bears have been able to keep WR Adam Thielen at bay in recent meetings as well. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense is one of the league's weakest units, due to injuries and otherwise. While the Bears by no means possess an elite offensive squad, they might just enjoy a breakout performance against Minnesota here. Take Chicago (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | Top | 12-37 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a shootout between these AFC West rivals in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'over' in the Broncos loss in Atlanta last Sunday and there's little reason to go any other way this week as they take on the surging Raiders. Broncos QB Drew Lock didn't exactly flourish in last week's favorable matchup with the Falcons but he did eventually get the offensive moving and put points on the board and I look for him to build off of that performance here. The Raiders aren't applying any pressure on opposing quarterbacks - a contrast to the pressure Lock has been under in recent weeks. Given a clean pocket I'm confident Lock can continue to build on his solid rapport with his young receiving corps, most notable Jerry Jeudy, who is looking like a star in the making. Also note that Las Vegas has been terrible against the run, allowing a whopping 4.7 yards per rush which should open things up even more for this Denver offense. I have no concerns at all about the Raiders offense thriving against the Broncos injury-plagued defense. Denver hasn't been particularly tough against the run or the pass and the Raiders are quietly ascending to elite-level status on offense. Look for TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs in particular to feast in this matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Bucs -5.5 v. Panthers | Top | 46-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an ideal bounce-back spot for Tom Brady and the Bucs following last Sunday night's shellacking at the hands of the Saints. It doesn't take much to empty an NFL team's bandwagon, particularly from a betting perspective, and that lopsided loss certainly fit the bill. We already won with the Bucs laying points against the Panthers once this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well in this one. Note that the Panthers defense has had a miserable time trying to apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks - truly a shell of this unit's former self. Look for Brady to stay upright for the majority of this game, and ultimately pick apart a very beatable Panthers secondary. On the flip side, the Panthers once again lost do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey to injury - this time a shoulder - in last week's hard-fought loss in Kansas City. Now it will be up to backup Mike Davis to again shoulder the load, but the prospects of him finding much success against a Bucs run defense that allows under three yards per rush is highly unlikely. Meanwhile, Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater has only shown flashes of brilliance this season, not playing at a high level on nearly a consistent enough basis to keep Carolina in contention in the NFC South. He'll be under duress for much of this contest and even when he is given time, expect the Bucs secondary to offer blanket coverage on the Panthers average receiving corps. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 44.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. As I noted in my analysis of Thursday night's losing play on the Colts-Titans 'under', it's not easy playing an NFL 'under' these days. With that being said, we'll go back to the well here as the Eagles and Giants set up as a low-scoring NFC East affair. I'm much higher on the Giants defense than most. They catch a fairly reasonable matchup here, even with the Eagles getting healthier off their bye week, welcoming back a number of key cogs on the offensive line. Meanwhile, the Eagles defense is set up exceptionally well to cause plenty of headaches for Giants QB Daniel Jones. Both defenses has been stout against the run but I don't believe that will prevent either offensive coordinator from drawing up plenty of run plays, ultimately banging their heads against the wall in that regard. That should lead to plenty of clock-churning drives, supporting our play on the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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11-14-20 | Temple v. Central Florida -25.5 | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Temple at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Central Florida, even as it lays close to four touchdowns. Temple's season is quickly going down the drain. Off to a 1-4 start, there's likely only one potential victory left on its schedule, that likely coming in a matchup with East Carolina. Injuries have played a role, but the simple fact is, the Owls defense hasn't been able to overcome all of the key losses from last year's team and the offense just hasn't been good enough to prevail in shootouts. Here, the Owls will once again be hard-pressed to keep pace with another explosive offense, even if QB Anthony Russo can return from injury (as is expected). Central Florida suffered stunning consecutive losses against Tulsa and Memphis in October but has since responded with back-to-back victories, scoring a whopping 95 points in the process. Now the path is there for the Knights to run the table, even if a difficult matchup against Cincinnati lies in waiting next week (UCF gets that game at home). This is obviously a key matchup for UCF as it looks to make that game against the Bearcats next week matter. While the Knights offense will undoubtedly continue to roll against a very beatable Temple defense, the question is whether UCF's defense can rise to the occasion and help stretch the margin out in this one. I believe it can and will. This is an experienced Knights defense that absolutely manhandled a good Houston offense last week, not allowing a single offensive score until over midway through the third quarter. Yes, they've been involved in plenty of high-scoring shootouts this season, but I'm confident the UCF defense can come up with enough 'splash plays' to ultimately put this game away for good. Take Central Florida (10*). |
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11-14-20 | Nevada -17 v. New Mexico | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -107 | 34 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Nevada minus the points over New Mexico at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. Nevada is off to a terrific 3-0 start to the season, with all three wins coming in impressive fashion. Yet, the Wolf Pack still find themselves on the outside looking in as far as the AP Top 25 goes, receiving just one vote in this week's poll. That could change after this game, however, as Nevada is in line to deliver another decisive victory against New Mexico. While this is considered a road game, it will actually be played at a neutral site in Las Vegas due to Covid protocols. Speaking of Covid protocols, the Wolf Pack have been forced to practice in two separate units, offense and defense. That's nothing new for Nevada, however, as that's how it prepared for this unique 2020 season over the summer months. We won with the Wolf Pack last week as they got off to a bit of a shaky start but ultimately rolled to a 34-9 win over Utah State. This is a similarly favorable matchup against a winless New Mexico squad that battled hard, but ultimately fell short in last week's 39-33 loss to Hawaii. It's worth noting that the Lobos will be forced to go with their backup quarterback this week after Tevaka Tuioti suffered a concussion in last week's contest. That puts QB Trae Hall in a tough spot this week, as he prepares to face a fierce Nevada defense that seems to be getting stronger with each passing week. Nevada took this matchup 21-10 last year but this is a stronger Wolf Pack squad, and I expect them to stretch out the margin this time around. Take Nevada (10*). |
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11-14-20 | Wake Forest v. North Carolina -12.5 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Wake Forest at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is the tail-end of a key two-game stretch that North Carolina obviously had circled as must-win contests after dropping two of three previously. The Tar Heels accomplished task number one by brushing aside Duke in blowout fashion last week and I look for them to deliver another lopsided victory against streaking Wake Forest on Saturday. The Demon Deacons started the season with consecutive losses but have rattled off four straight wins since. Note that those four victories came against teams that own a combined 7-18 record. We generally know what we're going to get from the North Carolina offense, but in this particular matchup, I look for its defense to rise to the occasion. We saw signs of that unit turning the corner in last week's win over Duke as it recorded five sacks and generally made life miserable for the Blue Devils offense. This is a similarly-enticing matchup noting that Deacs' QB Sam Hartman has been sacked 18 times in five games against FBS opponents this season. Wake Forest defeated North Carolina by a 24-18 score last season, but September 2019 seems like an awfully long time ago now. I see this as a critical contest for the Tar Heels as they'll face an uphill battle against Notre Dame and Miami over the next couple of games. Look for them avenge last year's loss with a decisive victory. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +4 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -113 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Iowa at 7 pm et on Friday. I absolutely love the way this Big Ten matchup sets up on Friday night. I'm a believer that the oddsmakers rarely 'get it wrong' but in this particular case, I'm willing to make an exception. Perhaps this line has something to do with the fact that Iowa blew the doors off of Michigan State 49-7 last week. Keep in mind, the Spartans were in a clear letdown spot following an upset win over in-state rival Michigan, at The Big House no less, the previous week. It's also worth noting that the Minnesota bandwagon cleared quickly this season as it dropped its season-opener in blowout fashion against Michigan (in front of a national ABC audience). I like what the Gophers bring to the table here, with an offense that is suddenly humming behind the strong running of RB Mo Ibrahim. Their offense is going to be fine with experienced QB Tanner Morgan at the helm. Defensively, the Gophers clearly have some issues to work out, but I'm not convinced that Iowa is capable of taking advantage. The Hawkeyes are by no means an elite offensive team, even if they did approach the 50-point mark last week. Iowa took last year's meeting by a narrow margin, but I look for Minnesota to get its revenge here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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11-12-20 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 48.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. It has become very difficult to play the 'under' in today's NFL with scoring up across the league and the majority of games finding their way 'over' the total. With that being said, we won with the 'under' in the Colts most recent game - last Sunday's loss to the Ravens, and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Thursday night in Tennessee. The Colts may have come up short against Baltimore, but they once again performed well defensively, keeping elite playmaker Lamar Jackson at bay for much of that contest. Their zone defense has done a tremendous job of limiting big plays from opposing offenses, and I expect that to be the case again here. Keep in mind, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has cooled following a red hot start to the season, topping out at two touchdown passes in three straight games. While Tennessee does boast arguably the league's best running back in Derrick Henry, he'll be going up against an elite Colts run defense that gives up just north of three yards per rush this season. On the flip side, the Indianapolis offense is average at best, with QB Philip Rivers more of a game manager than a gunslinger at this stage of his career, even though he has fit the latter bill more often than not in recent weeks. Here in a tough divisional road game, I'm not anticipating Rivers slinging the football all over the field. Look for the Colts to instead elect to run the football early and often against a Titans defense that hasn't proven it can slow opposing ground attacks. Look for plenty of long, clock churning drives in this one, helping keep the final score 'under' the relatively high posted total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-11-20 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois OVER 57.5 | 40-10 | Loss | -109 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Central Michigan and Northern Illinois at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I believe this game has high-scoring potential as Northern Illinois stays home following a wild 49-30 loss to Buffalo last week. Central Michigan is coming off a more positive result, a 30-27 victory over perennial MAC contender Ohio. I liked what I saw from the Chippewas offense in that game as QB Daniel Richardson and WR Kalili Pimpleton showed some nice chemistry (Pimpleton hauled in five catches for 65 yards and a touchdown) and RB Kobe Lewis racked up 112 rushing yards and two scores on 28 carries, despite his longest run going for only 11 yards. The Chips draw a more favorable matchup here against a relatively inexperienced and very beatable Northern Illinois defense. Note that NIU didn't record a single sack in last week's loss to Buffalo. The Huskies will need to be sharper offensively in order to keep pace with CMU this week. That's not really asking much after they lost four fumbles and added an interception last week. I do believe the Huskies are better than they showed offensively with experienced QB Ross Bowers leading the way. It is worth noting that they put together three first half scoring drives against arguably the MAC's best team in the Buffalo Bulls last week - before things got out of hand in the second half (due to three Bulls defensive scores). I'm expecting a more competitive affair than we saw between these teams last year (CMU won 48-10) and that lends itself to a high-scoring contest. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -8 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -116 | 35 h 50 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Ball State minus the points over Eastern Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with Ball State in last week's wild 38-31 loss against defending MAC champion Miami-Ohio but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Cardinals as they host Eastern Michigan in their home opener this week. Despite the loss, there was a lot to like in Ball State's season debut. Its offense moved the football at will for much of the game, racking up nearly 500 total yards while going 9-of-15 converting on third down. It was ultimately undone by a late interception and some porous offensive line play as it allowed five sacks. I expect the Cardinals to fare better against an Eastern Michigan defense that managed only one sack for two yards in last week's narrow loss to Kent State. The Eagles were fortunate to stay within arm's reach of the Golden Flashes in that game, largely due to a bit of a sloppy performance from Kent State, which committed nine penalties. EMU only managed 302 total yards, including a miserable 61 on the ground. Ball State should be able to win this game in the trenches. It boasts a terrific ground attack led by RB Caleb Huntley, and is more than capable of putting the game away should it build a second half lead, as I expect. Huntley appeared to be in midseason form last week, running for 130 yards and two touchdowns on just 21 carries. Meanwhile, the Cardinals had two wide receivers top 100 yards through the air, despite QB Drew Plitt completing just 19 passes. Take Ball State (10*). |
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11-10-20 | Akron v. Ohio UNDER 57 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This should be a 'name your score' type of game for Ohio as it looks to bounce back from a 30-27 loss against Central Michigan last week against perennial MAC bottom-feeder Akron. With that being said, I'm not convinced we're going to see a ton of offensive fireworks. The Bobcats did well to put up 27 points in last week's setback, although it's worth noting that seven of those points came by way of a kickoff return for a touchdown. QB Nathan Rourke did it all for Ohio last season but he has since moved on, making way for his younger brother Kurtis, who is really more of a pocket passer and had mixed results in his starting debut last week. Dual-threat UNLV transfer Armani Rogers will continue to see playing time as well - I'm not a big fan of the two-headed QB system but it likely helps the Bobcats churn out some long, clock-churning drives in this one. After getting dominated in terms of time of possession in last week's loss, look for Ohio to flip the script and control this game from the opening kickoff. Akron scored 13 points in last week's blowout loss to Western Michigan. I believe it will be hard-pressed to reach that number again here. The Zips had one of the nation's worst offenses last year and there's little reason for optimism here in a unique 2020 campaign. While we may see Akron put together some lengthy drives against an Ohio defense that is by no means in midseason form (it didn't record a single sack last week), I don't expect it to end many of those drives with points on the board. To get 'over' this total I believe there would have to be solid contributions from both squads - I simply don't see that happening on Tuesday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll go the contrarian route and call for a relatively high-scoring affair as the Patriots head to the Meadowlands to face the hapless Jets on Monday night. New England's offense has been laboring, largely due to QB Cam Newton's shakiness since returning to the field following his COVID diagnosis last month. The good news is, Newton is line for a big bounce-back performance here. The Jets defense has been virtually non-existent, having traded away most of its key pieces as the team continues to 'tank for Trevor', or at least that seems to be the case. We've seen the Pats ground game start to gain some traction and in this particular matchup they should feast against a putrid Jets front. So the question is whether New York can find enough offensive success to help this one 'over' the total. I believe it can. The Patriots defense has held up ok but is expected to be without its best player in CB Stephon Gilmore once again. Meanwhile, the Jets are getting healthier on offense with Sam Darnold's favorite target, WR Jamison Crowder, expected to return. Keep in mind, he had racked up over 100 receiving yards in three of four games before going down to injury earlier in the season. Things could potentially open up a bit for the New York offense here considering the Pats are giving up just shy of five yards per rush. While there's little reason to anticipate an offensive explosion from the Jets, we really don't need such a performance given this relatively low posted total. Even last week in a much tougher situation on the road against the Chiefs, New York did manage to orchestrate three first half scoring drives. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Broncos v. Falcons OVER 49.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has true shootout potential - as do most games played at the Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta. The Broncos roared back from a big fourth quarter deficit to stun the Chargers on a last-second touchdown last Sunday and QB Drew Lock and co. find themselves in another favorable matchup against a porous Falcons defense here. No other team gives up more big plays (plays of 20+ yards) through the air than Atlanta. We've seen the Broncos offense involve into a more pass-heavy attack with the emergence of rookie WR's Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler and TE Noah Fant. I don't expect Denver to bang its head against the wall trying to run the football a whole lot against a Falcons defense that has actually proven to be stout against the run, giving up under four yards per rush. On the flip side, the Falcons should go back to airing it out after a subpar performance in that regard in last week's victory in Carolina. While WR Calvin Ridley is sidelined, Julio Jones is more than capable of shouldering the load. It's also worth noting that the door is open for Todd Gurley to go off against a Broncos defense that has allowed well north of five yards per rush over the last couple of games, with key injuries on the defensive side of the football playing a role in that regression. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Ravens v. Colts UNDER 48.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Colts blowout win in Detroit last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they return home to host the Ravens. Baltimore hasn't been the same offensive juggernaut that we saw a year ago, with teams doing a better job of containing QB Lamar Jackson's big-play ability. Here, Jackson draws a tough matchup against a Colts defense that has virtually eliminated opposing QB's ability to run the football. I'm not high enough on the Ravens pass-catching corps to call for a breakout performance against a quality Indy pass defense here either. With that being said, I wouldn't count on another huge offensive showing from the Colts offense. QB Philip Rivers has looked more like an elite quarterback than a game-manager in recent weeks, but should regress back into the latter role against a tough Ravens defense that obviously has a sour taste in its mouth following last week's loss to the Steelers. Few teams have gotten much done on the ground against Baltimore and I fully expect the Colts to join that group as well. Take the under (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 50 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams totaled just 44 points in a Texans blowout win back on October 11th but I believe the potential is there for this one to be considerably higher-scoring. While the Jags will be without QB Gardner Minshew in this game, installing Jake Luton under center, I'm not sure it really matters. It's not as if Minshew was lighting the league on fire before he suffered a thumb injury. RB James Robinson has become the clear focal point of the Jags offense and he should enjoy plenty of success both on the ground (Houston is allowing a whopping 5.6 yards per rush this season) and in the short passing game. Meanwhile, the Texans offense is in line for a big breakout performance coming off their bye week, facing an undermanned Jags defense that has struggled all season long. QB DeShaun Watson has looked like a new man since the firing of head coach Bill O'Brien and should continue to thrive here against a Jags defense that doesn't apply any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The trade deadline passed earlier this week without Houston moving WR Will Fuller and that should be music to the ears of Watson. Even RB David Johnson, who has been a virtual non-factor for the Texans this season, could have a big day against a Jags defense that has been getting torched by opposing backs in recent weeks. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-20 | New Mexico v. Hawaii -15 | 33-39 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hawaii minus the points over New Mexico at 11 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot Hawaii finds itself in here as it returns home to host what could turn out to be one of the nation's weakest teams this season in New Mexico. The Rainbow Warriors are coming off a disappointing blowout loss at Wyoming last week but perhaps that letdown was to be anticipated after they opened the season with an impressive double-digit road win against Fresno State one week earlier. Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro has shown flashes of brilliance but has also been sacked nine times through two games. He should catch a break here as New Mexico didn't record a single sack in last week's season-opening loss to San Jose State. While the Warriors did give up 31 points in last week's setback, it's worth noting that 14 of those points came as a result of two fourth quarter turnovers (one on downs and the other on an interception). Again, Hawaii will be taking a step down in class here against the Lobos. New Mexico was able to move the football with some consistency in an eventual 38-21 loss at San Jose State last week but that was after the Spartans seemed to let their guard down with an early two-touchdown lead. The Lobos defense offered very little resistance with SJSU QB Nick Starkel completing 34-of-47 passes for 467 yards and five touchdowns. They didn't force a single turnover in the loss. Hawaii took this matchup by 14 points last season and I expect it to stretch out the margin even further this time around. Take Hawaii (10*). |
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11-07-20 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 55.5 | Top | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 59 h 28 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Alabama and Coastal Carolina at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest than most in this key Sun Belt showdown on Saturday night. South Alabama fell to an even 3-3 on the season with a 24-17 loss at Georgia Southern last Thursday. Now it stays on the road for an even tougher matchup against upstart Coastal Carolina, which is fresh off a 51-0 dismantling of Georgia State last week. A key here is the South Alabama defense. We actually started the 2020 campaign with a winner with the 'under' in USA's first game of the season - an upset win at Southern Miss. The Jaguars defense certainly held its own in October, allowing a grand total of just 58 points in three games, going 2-1 in the process. While Coastal Carolina has thrived offensively thanks in large part to the exploits of QB Grayson McCall, the Jaguars check in having allowed just four touchdown passes in six games this season. We've seen a few explosions from the Chanticleers offense this season but I'm not convinced we'll see them run up the score here, coming off that 51-point effort last week. Lost in last week's rout was the performance of their defense as they shutout a Georgia State squad that had put up a whopping 168 points in its first four games this season. Coastal Carolina is certainly capable of holding what I consider to be an over-achieving South Alabama offense at bay in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-07-20 | Michigan -3 v. Indiana | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up for Big Blue coming off a very disappointing field goal loss to rival Michigan State last Saturday. Perhaps the Wolverines got caught reading their own press following a much easier than expected rout of Minnesota in their Big Ten opener (we lost with Minnesota in that game). Now that they've been brought back to Earth by the Spartans, I look for a much sharper performance from Jim Harbaugh's squad on Saturday. Indiana is off to a somewhat surprising 2-0 start, scoring a ton of points in the process. I don't have a great deal of confidence in the Hoosiers keeping it rolling here, however. Note that QB Michael Penix has completed just 36-of-62 passes and has been sacked four times through two games. Meanwhile, leading rusher Stevie Scott has carried the football 20+ times in both games, topping out at just 79 rushing yards. The last time these two teams met last November, Michigan won in a rout, 39-14. This one might not be that lopsided, but I'm comfortable laying the points with the Wolverines on the road. Take Michigan (10*). |
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11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 49 | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and San Diego State at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the 'under' in this Mountain West Conference showdown between two undefeated teams on Friday night. This is admittedly a low total by college football standards, but it's warranted in my opinion. San Jose State's offense has been humming with QB Nick Starkel padding his stats with a 467-yard, five-touchdown performance against New Mexico last week. Here, he'll face a much tougher challenge, however, against a talented and experienced San Diego State defense that has already recorded six sacks through two games, and has allowed just two passing touchdowns while recording two interceptions. The Spartans ground attack is limited and that should make it tough to stay on the field for extended periods in this one. Meanwhile, San Diego State certainly hasn't been known for its offense in recent years, but has been impressive so far. This is a tough test, however, after the Aztecs lined up against two of the nation's weakest defenses in UNLV and New Mexico in their first two games. I look for SDSU to put together plenty of long, clock-churning drives in this one, ultimately helping to keep this one 'under' the posted total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This total has been dropping since word broke that the 49ers would be without a number of key cogs on the offensive side of the football due to COVID-19 protocols. Of course, San Francisco was already going to be missing many other players due to injuries, including QB Jimmy Garroppolo, TE George Kittle, WR Deebo Samuel - the list goes on and on. I actually feel the total has shifted too low. The Packers offense should absolutely feast in this contest, even as that unit deals with key injuries of its own including one to RB Aaron Jones who I believe is unlikely to play again this week. QB Aaron Rodgers has enjoyed plenty of success this season and should pick apart an injury-ravaged 49ers defense that has shown no semblance of a pass rush here in 2020. On the flip side, the Packers defense is nothing special and has been repeatedly torched by opposing running games. The 49ers are depleted at the running back position, but should still be able to gain some traction against what is quite simply one of the league's worst run defenses. Look for RB Jerick McKinnon to step up in the absence of San Francisco's household names out of the backfield. Likewise, Niners QB Nick Mullens always seems to play with a chip on his shoulder and provided he can stay away from CB Jaire Alexander, he should be able to move the football and ultimately put points on the board for his squad. This may not be a true shootout, but I do expect it to find its way 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada -15.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Nevada minus the points over Utah State at 7 pm et on Thursday. While no in-conference matchup should ever be considered a 'gimme', I do believe Nevada is in terrific position to move to 3-0 in Mountain West Conference play and take this one by a lopsided margin on Thursday night. Utah State has been the worst team in the Mountain West through two games, and might just be one of the weakest teams in the nation in this unique 2020 season. While the Aggies have faced a tough draw to open the campaign, going up against Boise State and San Diego State - two of the MWC's best teams - things don't figure to get any easier here. Note that last week the Aggies lone score came on a SDSU defensive breakdown on the final play of the first half. Against Boise State, Utah State didn't score until the final two minutes of the third quarter - when the game was already out of hand. Nevada, meanwhile, checks in a perfect 2-0, winning a tight one against upstart Wyoming before blowing out UNLV last week. I liked the way Nevada put the latter game away late, holding UNLV scoreless in the fourth quarter while scoring 10 points itself. Nevada QB Carson Strong has thrown for 770 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. There's no real look-ahead at play for the Wolf Pack here as they'll face winless New Mexico next Saturday. Take Nevada (10*). |
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11-04-20 | Ball State +2.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Miami-Ohio at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Ball State boasts plenty of upside off a very disappointing 2019 campaign - I say disappointing not because the Cardinals played all that poorly, but because they were unable to come up with enough victories in close games to earn Bowl eligibility. They ultimately went 5-7 with three losses coming by a grand total of eight points. Most of the key pieces are back on offense, where Ball State is loaded with potential entering the 2020 season. While this is a tough opening matchup, it's one the Cardinals need to succeed in if they're going to challenge for a MAC title. The key could be whether or not Ball State can ratchet up the pressure on the defensive side of the football, where they simply had no success getting to opposing quarterbacks a year ago. I believe they can with an experienced group that returns 12 of 15 top tacklers, going up against a Redhawks offensive line that had a tough time keeping their QB upright. Miami-Ohio stunned most by winning the MAC Championship last season. Don't count on a repeat performance in 2020. While a lot of the key players from last year's squad are back, I don't see a great deal of upside or progression on the horizon. This could be a year where the rest of the MAC catches up with the Redhawks and the pendulum swings in the other direction after they won so many tight contests a year ago. Take Ball State (10*). |
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11-04-20 | Manchester United v. Basaksehir OVER 3 | Top | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' 3 goals between Manchester United and Istanbul Basaksehir at 12:55 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Manchester United's most recent Champions League match - a 5-0 victory over RB Leipzig last Wednesday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, even after Man U was held off the scoresheet for a second consecutive EPL match this past Sunday. The Champions League has obviously been another story as United has gone a perfect 2-0, scoring seven goals in the process. Here we should see it enjoy continued success in a favorable matchup with Basaksehir. With that being said, the Istanbul side has perhaps deserved a better fate than an 0-2, scoreless Champions League start. Note that it has controlled 52% and 47% of the possession in its first two matches against RB Leipzig and Paris-St. Germain. It has also managed seven shots on target - not bad considering the level of opposition it faced. That's not to mention 44 crosses. The fact is, this is an aggressive, attacking side that I do expect to find the back of the net on Wednesday against Man U. Rather than play the Asian total of 2 3/4 goals we'll go over the 3 at a plus-money return (at the time of writing). Take the over 3 goals (10*). |
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11-03-20 | Inter Milan v. Real Madrid OVER 3 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 3 goals between Inter Milan and Real Madrid at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Inter Milan played to a surprising 0-0 draw against Shakhtar Donetsk last Tuesday as it generally controlled proceedings but simply couldn't capitalize on its opportunities. Meanwhile, Real Madrid opened Champions League play with a stunning loss to aforementioned Shakhtar two weeks ago. Last Tuesday we saw a better effort from Madrid, albeit late in its match against Borussia Monchengladbach - an eventual 2-2 draw. The fact is, both squads are capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard (by soccer standards of course). We'll need to see a little more creativity from Inter Milan if it's going to break down a tough Real Madrid defense but I do believe it will be able to do so, noting the latter still doesn't bring its best form in that regard having allowed at least a goal in five consecutive matches overall. I have this one finishing 2-1 at worst putting us in a fine position playing 'over' the standard total. Take the over 3 goals (10*). |
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11-03-20 | Borussia Monchengladbach +120 v. Shakhtar Donetsk | Top | 6-0 | Win | 120 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
Champions League Match of the Month. My selection is on Borussia Monchengladbach (three-way betting) over Shakhtar Donetsk at 12:55 pm et on Tuesday. I'll gladly back Monchengladbach at the return being offered in Champions League action on Tuesday. While it has gone winless through two matches, it has impressed in draws earned against Inter Milan and Real Madrid, scoring four goals in the process. It probably deserved a better fate against Real Madrid but conceded two late goals to settle for a draw - still an encouraging result against a powerful squad. In between those two Champions League draws, Monchengladbach has also racked up two more wins in Bundesliga action. Tuesday's opponent, Shakhtar Donetsk, has now played three full halves since its last goal in Champions League action. It scored three times in the first half against Real Madrid two weeks ago before holding on for a 3-2 victory in that contest and then settled for a 0-0 draw with Inter Milan last Tuesday. Note that Inter Milan did take it to Shakhtar for much of that match, but ultimately came up empty. I expect to see Monchengladbach do a better job of capitalizing on its opportunities and ultimately grabbing an elusive victory on Tuesday. Take Borussia Monchengladbach three-way betting (10*). |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +13 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This week has featured a pair of primetime NFL stinkers with the Falcons outlasting the Panthers in a dull affair on Thursday and the Eagles pulling away from the Cowboys in a football horror show last night. Call me crazy, but I think we may see an entertaining affair between the Bucs and Giants on Monday night. Tampa is in a bit of a tough scheduling spot here, traveling back across the country after posting back-to-back wins over the Packers and Raiders. The Bucs have a big divisional showdown with the Saints on tap this coming Sunday so maybe they park the bus if they build a lead in this one. Meanwhile, the Giants have had an extended week of practice since falling by a single point in Philadelphia a week ago Thursday. New York has very little upside at this time but I will point to a couple of positives. The Giants run defense has been stout and they certainly don't face an intimidating opponent in that sense here. They've also gotten healthier in their receiving corps with Sterling Shepherd back in the mix to compliment Darius Slayton, who has enjoyed a career year so far. The betting majority should be all over the Bucs in this one but we'll go the other way and grab the points with a G-Men squad that has rarely gotten blown out over the course of its 1-6 start. Take New York (10*). |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles -10.5 | 9-23 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This is a fairly obvious play but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. We should see the Eagles defense absolutely feast on an overmatched Cowboys offense here. There's little reason to expect any sort of surprise breakout performance from rookie QB Ben DiNucci - the Cowboys true third-string option under center. He should be under duress against a fierce Eagles pass rush all night long, setting up the potential for plenty of short fields for the Philadelphia offense. For at least this week, we should see the Eagles offense take flight. We saw positive signs in last week's come-from-behind victory over the Giants (we missed with Philly in that game). Now with an extended week of practice, look for them to take advantage of a reeling Cowboys stop-unit. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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11-01-20 | Titans v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout written all over it as the Titans head to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. After their comeback fell just short against the Steelers last Sunday (we won with Pittsburgh in that game), the Titans should explode against an awful Bengals defense here. Cincinnati isn't doing anything to slow opposing running games which opens the door for a big day from Titans RB Derrick Henry. Meanwhile, they're not applying nearly enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks to make Ryan Tannehill uncomfortable. Likewise, Tennessee can't seem to get to the quarterback, which should spell trouble as it lined up against a steadily-improving and confident rookie QB Joe Burrow. The Bengals by no means possess an elite offense, but they are running a ton of plays and should be able to expose a bad Titans defense here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-01-20 | Colts v. Lions UNDER 50 | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure where all the points are going to come from in this game. Yes, the Colts should be able to move the football on the ground against a weak Lions run defense but can QB Philip Rivers move the ball consistently through the air? I envision a lot of long, clock-churning drives from the Colts here. Meanwhile, the Indy defense should feast on an average Lions offense. The Colts are giving up less than 3.5 yards per rush this season and are expected to get LB Darius Leonard back to boost their mid-level pass defense. This total has been set too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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10-31-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas State OVER 56 | 44-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UL-Lafayette and Texas State at 8 pm et on Saturday. |
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10-31-20 | Northwestern v. Iowa UNDER 46.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw just 20 total points scored when these two programs met a year ago, with all 20 of those points coming from Iowa. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon at Kinnick Stadium. Northwestern busted out for 43 points in its season debut last week, but that came at the expense of a bad Maryland team. We saw a number of defensive breakdowns from the Terps in that contest, allowing the Wildcats to score one touchdown on a broken play and two others from 30+ yards out. Northwestern will face a much tougher test against Iowa this week. The Hawkeyes suffered a tough 24-20 loss to Purdue in their opener. While Purdue QB nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns, he needed 50 pass attempts to get to those totals. The fact that Iowa didn't put its best foot forward but still held the Boilermakers to only 24 points was telling. Offensively, Iowa will remain a work in progress. Expect a run-first gameplan against the Wildcats on Saturday, helping lead to plenty of long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*). |
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10-31-20 | Wake Forest -12 v. Syracuse | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest minus the points over Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday. Syracuse took this matchup a year ago in a wild 39-30 contest. The Orange have fallen on hard times since, however, proving to be one of the weakest teams in the nation in this unique 2020 season. With that being said, Syracuse did stay easily inside the inflated pointspread on the road against mighty Clemson last week, which may give Orange backers a false sense of security here. Wake Forest poses a significant challenge as it rolls in on the heels of three straight wins. The Demon Deacons two losses this season were by no means bad ones, coming at home against Clemson and on the road against N.C. State. The Deacs' ground game continues to churn out big gains while Sam Hartman is a truly underrated college quarterback, having yet to throw an interception this season - the perfect signal-caller for this ball-control offense. Syracuse has little going for it right now and I don't see it picking itself up off the proverbial mat at the Carrier Dome on Saturday. Take Wake Forest (10*). |
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10-31-20 | Chelsea -178 v. Burnley | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chelsea (three-way) over Burnley at 11 am et on Saturday. We are being asked to pay a pretty steep price to back Chelsea in this English Premier League match on Saturday morning, but I believe the line could actually be even higher. Burnley will be hard-pressed to score a goal in this particular contest. You would have to go back to October 3rd to find the last time it found the back of the net, that coming in a 3-1 loss to Newcastle. All told, Burnley has gone winless in its last five matches, scoring just that single goal. Chelsea turned in a rather uninspiring effort in a 0-0 draw with Manchester United last Saturday but followed that up with a resounding 4-0 victory over Krasnodar in Champions League action on Wednesday. Perhaps that scoring outburst will serve to shake Chelsea out of its doldrums on the heels of consecutive 0-0 draws. I don't mind paying the tariff to back it here, with this one setting up as a solid Saturday parlay booster as well. Take Chelsea three-way (10*). |
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10-30-20 | East Carolina v. Tulsa UNDER 62 | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between East Carolina and Tulsa at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Tulsa's rout of South Florida last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Golden Hurricane return home to host East Carolina on Friday night. The Pirates will welcome back QB Holton Ahlers from injury. This is a tough matchup though as the Tulsa defense has been stout - even against a pretty tough schedule that has included games against Oklahoma State and Central Florida - both on the road. Last week, the Golden Hurricane didn't allow a touchdown until midway through the third quarter. Earlier this season they held Oklahoma State out of the end zone until the fourth quarter and didn't give up a single second half touchdown against Central Florida. While Tulsa has scored 76 points over its last two games, it is by no means an offensive juggernaut. Keep in mind, the Golden Hurricane lost their offensive star, RB Shamari Brooks, to a season-ending injury before things even got going back in September. East Carolina should play with an edge at 1-3 on the season and coming off a bye week. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers OVER 49 | 25-17 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Carolina at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'm shocked that we're able to play a total south of 50 points in this Thursday night divisional showdown. Perhaps I shouldn't be. After all, these two teams combined to score just 39 points in their meeting earlier this season, and that took place in the friendly dome confines of Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Here, I'm anticipating a shootout as neither defense brings any sort of confidence to the table and certainly doesn't match up well with the opposing offense. We've seen Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater really settle into his offense over the last several weeks and now he gets a smash spot against a Falcons defense that doesn't get after the quarterback and is only average in virtually every department. On the flip side, the Falcons offense should be able to 'let it fly' against an undermanned, struggling Panthers defense. Last Sunday in New Orleans, the Panthers got shredded by an inconsistent Drew Brees, allowing a 118.4 QB rating and sacking him just once. Falcons QB Matt Ryan should thrive in this matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-20 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 52 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between South Alabama and Georgia Southern at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair. South Alabama has scored 30 or more points in consecutive games - both victories - but those came against two of the nation's weakest teams in Texas State and Louisiana Monroe - not to mention the fact that both games were played at home. Here, the Jaguars will face a tougher challenge as they hit the road to face Georgia Southern, which should be in a sour mood following a tough loss to Coastal Carolina last week. The Eagles have topped out at 42 points in a game this season but that came against a bad UMass squad that was playing its first game of the season. While the Eagles do have an experienced signal-caller in QB Shai Werts, I don't have a great deal of confidence in them running up the score here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-20 | Lokomotive Leipzig v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between RB Leipzig and Manchester United at 4 pm et on Wednesday. RB Leipzig hasn't missed a beat since losing star Timo Werner to English side Chelsea, going undefeated in six Bundesliga matches (5 W, 1 D) and delivering a 2-0 victory over Istanbul Basaksehir in their Champions League opener last week. Leipzig has scored at least two goals in six of its last seven matches overall. Manchester United is coming off a less than inspiring 0-0 draw against Chelsea in the rain on Saturday. Neither side looked all that interested in playing for anything other than a draw in that contest. Here, I expect a much different story to unfold. Note that prior to Saturday's contest, Manchester United had seen 11 straight matches total at least three goals. Take the over 2.5 goals (10*). |
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10-27-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 8:08 pm et on Tuesday. We're dealing with the same total we saw in Game 5 despite what I would consider to be a considerably weaker pitching matchup on Tuesday night. Blake Snell is a former Cy Young award winner and certainly a capable starter but the fact is, save for a dominant effort against the Blue Jays way back in the Wild Card play-in series, he has struggled. Snell has given up 12 walks and five home runs in four starts going back to the ALDS, covering a span of just 18 2/3 innings. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles and manager Dave Roberts has indicated he'll be stretched out a little bit in this one. Like Snell, he has struggled here in the postseason, allowing seven walks and three home runs in 7 2/3 innings. Both bullpens have given up their share of big hits in this series and throughout the playoffs. I'm confident playing the 'over' in this potential World Series clincher. Take the over (10*). |
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10-27-20 | Real Madrid v. Borussia Monchengladbach UNDER 3 | 2-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 3 goals between Real Madrid and Borussia Monchengladbach at 4 pm et on Tuesday. I fully expect to see a match played fairly close to the vest between these two upper-echelon Champions League squads on Tuesday afternoon. It's not desperation time, but it's certainly an important match for Real Madrid after it dropped a stunning 3-2 decision against Shakhtar Donetsk last week. I do expect a positive response here but there's no question Real Madrid faces a tough opponent in Monchengladbach. We saw the latter settle for a 2-2 draw against a quality Inter Milan side last week, only missing out on the three points thanks to a 90th minute Lukaku goal. A 1-1 result wouldn't surprise here. Take the under 3 goals (10*). |
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10-27-20 | Ajax Amsterdam +0.5 v. Atalanta | 2-2 | Win | 108 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ajax +0.5 goals over Atalanta at 4 pm et on Tuesday. Solid value being offered with Ajax here as it looks to rebound following a tough 1-0 loss to Liverpool last week. Atalanta is obviously a popular squad right now and quite simply one of the hottest names in all of European football. With that being said, off a 4-0 victory last week I believe it is being overvalued here. Ajax could certainly use a point out of this match, and for that matter so could Atalanta. Both sides would be alright with a draw in this situation although I don't believe an outright Ajax victory is completely out of the question. Take Ajax +0.5 goals (10*). |
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10-27-20 | Inter Milan -125 v. Shakhtar Donetsk | 0-0 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Inter Milan (three-way betting) over Shakhtar Donetsk at 1:55 pm et on Tuesday. |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This will be pegged as a defensive showdown between two upper-echelon NFC teams with the Bears checking in at 5-1 and the Rams 4-2. I see this as a bit of a flat spot for Chicago coming off back-to-back wins over the Bucs and Panthers. I simply feel the Bears may be in line for a stinker has as the matchup doesn't set up favorably. The Rams are certainly comfortable playing here at So-Fi Stadium where they've gone a perfect 2-0 and allowed just 26 points in the process. The Bears defense has certainly been stout, but not quite so dominant on the road where they've allowed over 21 points per game. That number shoots up to 24.5 points per contest in domes, where they weren't nearly as stingy in Detroit and Atlanta earlier this season. Simply put, Chicago is a team built for a outdoor environment in my opinion, on both sides of the football. I'm not expecting any sort of resurgence from Bears QB Nick Foles against a fierce Rams defense. He has by all accounts struggled since taking over the reins from an ineffective Mitchell Trubisky. The Rams have shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey to blanket Chicago's lone true offensive star in WR Allen Robinson. While Los Angeles does give up plenty of yardage on the ground, I'm not convinced Bears RB David Montgomery can hit paydirt here as he has just one touchdown to his credit this season. Rams QB Jared Goff once again won't be asked to do a whole lot, but he'll do enough to get the Rams the win and cover. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays OVER 8 | 4-2 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 8:08 pm et on Sunday. 11, 10, 8 and 15. Those are the total runs we've seen scored in the first four games of this series. I'll stick with the trend and play the 'over' again on Sunday night as the Dodgers and Rays get their second looks at Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw, respectively. Both bullpens are obviously weary at this point of the series, with this being the fifth game in six nights, an unlikely World Series scenario in these COVID times. Both offenses have come up big when they've had to throughout this series and there's little reason to expect anything different on Sunday. Maybe in Game 6 we'll see the total get bumped up, but for now we're dealing with a very reasonable number. Take the over (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Bucs -3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I continue to believe that the Raiders victory in Kansas City two weeks ago will ultimately prove to be the high point of their season. This is a nightmarish matchup for Vegas with a possible COVID outbreak moving the game from primetime to the late afternoon window. Note that the Raiders will be welcoming a Bucs squad that seems to be getting better (on both sides of the football) with each passing week. Tampa Bay now has an elite-level defense and should feast on a Raiders offense led by mistake-prone and tentative QB Derek Carr. Meanwhile, Tom Brady and the Bucs offense is set to explode against a weak, undermanned Raiders defense. This game has blowout potential despite the relatively short pointspread. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Steelers +1.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. Few teams are having as much fun as the Pittsburgh Steelers, who check in a perfect 5-0 on the season, matching the record of the team they'll face on Sunday - the Tennessee Titans. I'll give the Steelers the nod here as they match up well against Tennessee in a number of areas. First of all, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better run defense than that of the Steelers. If any team can at least slow down the beast that is Titans RB Derrick Henry, it's the Steelers. Take away Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill obviously becomes far less effective. LT Taylor Lewan will certainly be a key absence on the Titans offensive line. Meanwhile, the Titans defense, while carrying a very positive reputation, has struggled for much of the campaign. Tennessee has been particularly weak against the run, giving up over five yards per rush and five touchdowns to enemy backs. That absolutely opens the door for a steadily-evolving Pittsburgh offense that has quietly been excelling across the board. Both of these teams are legitimate AFC title contenders, but the Steelers get the edge here as we approach the midway point of the regular season. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Bills -10 v. Jets | 18-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's absolutely no reason to jump off the Jets fade bus at this point as the Bills find themselves in fantastic bounce-back position against punchless Gang Green on Sunday afternoon. We've seen Buffalo's worst over the last two weeks, even if it did hang tough against the Chiefs this past Monday night. Here, we should see the Bills offense absolutely shred a Jets defense that has essentially checked out on the season. On the flip side, the Buffalo defense takes a huge step down in class after facing two of the NFL's best offenses in the Titans and Chiefs. New York's offense is going nowhere with QB Joe Flacco at the helm. While I actually like the matchup for the Jets running game against the Bills, that won't be enough to keep them within arm's reach for four quarters. This could very well be the spot where the Bills do pin back their ears and stiffen up against the run and if that happens this is an absolute rout. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Packers -3 v. Texans | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Packers in this clear bounce-back spot against the Texans on Sunday. Green Bay absolutely laid an egg last Sunday afternoon in Tampa, falling in blowout fashion against the Bucs. Of course, they were facing one of the league's best defenses in that game. Here, they'll be going up against one of the worst. The Texans are giving up nearly six yards per rush on the ground and haven't been much better against opposing passing games. Expect Aaron Rodgers and co. to have a field day at NRG Stadium. Meanwhile, the Houston offense had plenty of success last week in Tennessee (we won with the 'over' in that game) but should find the sledding a little tougher here as the Packers have actually been tough on opposing quarterbacks. The Texans had a bit of upside following the Bill O'Brien firing, but that's gone now. I like the Packers to cover the short number. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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10-24-20 | Dodgers -164 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
World Series Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Tampa Bay at 8:08 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers took back control of this series with a relatively easy 6-2 victory last night. I expect them to take full reins with another win on Saturday as they send Julio Urias to the hill against Ryan Yarbrough of the Rays. Urias has been sharp both as a starter and out of the bullpen and I expect him to be comfortable making this start on Saturday night as well. In four postseason appearances he has allowed just one earned run on seven hits in 16 innings of work. Meanwhile, Yarbrough hasn't been as sharp in the playoffs as he was during the regular season, albeit in limited work. Yarbrough has allowed 11 hits, three walks and three home runs in 10 2/3 innings here in the postseason. The Dodgers are a confident bunch right now. We won with the Rays in their lone victory in this series but here I believe L.A. is the play, and in fact the price could be even higher than it is. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-24-20 | Michigan v. Minnesota +3.5 | 49-24 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel Michigan is overvalued in this nationally televised matchup to open Big Ten play on Saturday night. The line has flipped since opening, and I'm not sure the move is warranted as Minnesota is certainly capable of hanging with Big Blue here in its home opener. Not only was Minnesota a Bowl team last year but it played on New Year's Day, defeating SEC power Auburn 31-24 as a touchdown underdog in the Outback Bowl. Look for the Gophers to enjoy similar fortunes in an underdog role here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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10-24-20 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +3.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas Tech plus the points over West Virginia at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for home underdog Texas Tech. West Virginia was in a favorable spot last Saturday and delivered a blowout win over Kansas but that was to be expected. Here, the Mountaineers find themselves in a different situation, favored on the road against what will be a highly-motivated 1-3 Texas Tech squad. The Red Raiders got off to a fine start this season, beating quality FCS opponent Houston Baptist in their opener before giving Texas all it could handle the next week. Since then, it has gotten off track, falling in tough back-to-back road games against Kansas State and Iowa State. With that being said, really how much better could we have expected Texas Tech to perform over the course of this tough early slate. This is a legitimate opportunity for the Red Raiders to get back in the win column before the schedule gets much tougher again with a home date against Oklahoma followed by a road game against TCU. Look for them to take advantage of the opportunity against a beatable West Virginia squad. Take Texas Tech (10*). |
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10-24-20 | Temple v. Memphis OVER 69.5 | 29-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Temple and Memphis at 12 noon et on Saturday. I've said from the start of the season that this Temple squad is built for shootouts and is likely to be involved in plenty of them this year. So far, so good as the Owls have played only two games but both were high-scoring - dropping a 31-29 decision against Navy before responding with a 39-37 victory over South Florida last week. Now comes another shootout in the making as the Owls travel to face Memphis. The Tigers are loaded on offense so it should come as no surprise that they've been involved in their share of high-scoring games already this season as well. Last week we saw Memphis return to the field following a bye week and proceed to score 50 points in a wild one-point victory over UCF. While the Tigers will be taking a step down in class here, I still expect their defense to struggle to contain the Owls attack. Last year's meeting saw just 58 total points but the potential is there for this one to get well into the 70's in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 8:08 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as we see a true pitcher's duel in the making on Friday. Charlie Morton will take the ball for the Rays against Walker Buehler of the Dodgers. Morton is a proven postseason performer and has certainly lived up to his billing here in these playoffs, allowing just one earned run in 15 2/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, Buehler has been rock solid as well, giving up only two earned runs in 15 innings since the start of the NLDS. Both bullpens are fresh after a night off and I see this as a first team to three wins type of contest. Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-20 | Tulsa v. South Florida OVER 49.5 | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Friday. This total has dropped into playable range since opening. We just haven't seen enough from Tulsa to get a true gauge of where the Golden Hurricane are at. After opening the season with a much lower-scoring than expected 16-7 loss at Oklahoma State they went on to stage a stunning upset of Central Florida in Orlando, scoring an impressive 34 points in the process. Here, I'm confident the Tulsa offense can ramp up again but I'm not sure the Golden Hurricane defense will hold up as well as it has to this point. It would be easy to suffer a bit of a letdown emotionally against a 1-4 South Florida squad. The Bulls are still trying to get their offense sorted but this is a fine breakout spot at home coming off an extra week of practice. While I'm not anticipating a shootout here, I do believe this one will ultimately climb over the very reasonable posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up for the Eagles for a number of reasons. First, we saw some signs of life from Philadelphia last Sunday as it didn't fold the tent after falling behind against an elite Ravens squad. In fact, the Eagles were a two-point conversion away from sending the game to overtime. Meanwhile, the Giants are fresh off their first win of the season, coming at the expense of the equally lowly Washington Football Team. Here, New York faces a much tougher challenge against a still-fierce Eagles pass rush that ranks top three in the NFL in quarterback hits. Expect Giants QB Daniel Jones to be under duress all night long. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has been lifeless and essentially sets Eagles QB Carson Wentz up for a breakout performance here, even with TE Zach Ertz sidelined. Ertz hasn't been effective anyway so his absence won't be missed all that much. Despite facing a stable of lower-tier quarterbacks, the G-Men defense have done little to slow opposing offenses. Look for the Eagles to take out their frustrations on Joe Judge's squad here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State UNDER 68 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas State and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark (badly) with the 'under' in Arkansas State's victory over Georgia State last week. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however as the Red Wolves head on the road to face Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are well-rested if nothing else, having not played a game since September due to COVID concerns. Prior to the shutdown Appalachian State had gone 2-1 but was largely inconsistent offensively, only truly breaking out against FCS opponent Campbell. Here, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Mountaineers showed a bit of rust offensively. Meanwhile, we can't count on another offensive explosion from the Arkansas State offense - not against a much tougher Appalachian State defense. The last time these two programs met two years ago they combined to score 44 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 8:08 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair to open this series last night with the Dodgers offense staying hot in an 8-3 rout. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring contest in Game 2 in what should set up as a 'bullpen game' for both clubs. The Rays are hoping that lefty Blake Snell can keep the Dodgers bats at bay but the fact is he's struggled for much of the postseason and isn't likely to work deep into this ball game (Rays manager Kevin Cash elected to leave Tyler Glasnow in the game for 112 pitches last night to conserve his bullpen for this one). While the Rays 'pen has been terrific overall this season, it struggled in Games 4 through 7 of the ALCS. The Dodgers will hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin, but he's only likely to work a few innings. Even if the Rays can't get to him, I do believe they'll be able to do some damage against a Dodgers 'pen that has struggled apart from Julio Urias. After getting through a shaky first inning, Clayton Kershaw was able to keep the Rays bats off balance over the next five frames last night. I look for a different story to unfold tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-20 | Atletico Madrid v. Bayern Munich UNDER 2.75 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' 2.75 goals between Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich at 3 pm et on Wednesday. There's plenty of offensive firepower on display in this match between two giants on Wednesday but I'm not convinced this early group stage match will turn into a high-scoring affair. Similarly to yesterday's match between Sevilla and Chelsea, I suspect we'll see a bit of a feeling out process in this one, noting that these two squads are unquestionably the best in Group A (Salzburg and Lokomotiv Moscow round out the grouping). As much as Bayern in particular would like to make a statement here in the opener, Atletico Madrid is solid in the back and more than capable of holding form. The simple fact that Munich has scored a whopping 20 goals in five Bundesliga matches to date this season leads to this total being set a little higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under 2.75 goals (10*). |
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10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -169 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Tampa Bay at 8:09 pm et on Tuesday. There are those that feel Clayton Kershaw is no longer the Dodgers ace with Walker Buehler taking over that bill here in 2020. I think we see a strong performance from Kershaw in the opener of the World Series on Tuesday night, however. I also expect the Dodgers bats to come up big against Rays starter Tyler Glasnow. We saw Glasnow's walks per nine innings rise considerably compared to a year ago during the regular season and that trend has continued here in the postseason as he has issued eight walks while also allowing six home runs in 19 1/3 innings of work. I'm confident the Dodgers can make Glasnow pay for his command issues. While I do expect this to be a long series, I feel Los Angeles could be priced even higher than it is here in Game 1. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-20-20 | Sevilla +0.5 v. Chelsea | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Champions League Match of the Month. My selection is on Sevilla +0.5 goals over Chelsea at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a strong position with Sevilla catching a half-goal against Chelsea in Champions League action on Tuesday. While the Spanish side is coming off a tough 1-0 loss to Granada in La Liga action and has gone winless in consecutive matches, I expect it will be up to the challenge against an opponent that draws plenty of motivation here. Chelsea is coming off a disappointing result of its own on Saturday - settling for a 3-3 draw against Southampton. I feel that Chelsea's aggressive style may open it up for some fruitful counter-attacks from Sevilla here and feel we're getting a bargain price to grab the insurance half-goal. Take Sevilla +0.5 goals (10*). |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys OVER 55 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This sets up as a smash spot for both offenses, even with the Cowboys having lost QB Dak Prescott for the season. The Cardinals are coming off a nice 'get right' matchup against the Jets and should be able to keep it rolling against a pitiful Cowboys defense here. Note that Dallas simply isn't getting after opposing quarterbacks which should help set up a clean pocket for capable Cardinals QB Kyler Murray on Monday night. Given that clean pocket there's little reason to expect anything other than a monster performance from Murray and his favorite target WR DeAndre Hopkins. Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren't stopping anyone from running the football which bodes well for the Cards backfield tandem of Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. While most are quick to write off the Cowboys offense, I believe they can keep playing fast and putting plenty of points on the board with veteran Andy Dalton under center. It's not as if the rest of the offensive cupboard is bare - the Cowboys are positively loaded all over the field, and particularly at wide receiver. Note that the Cards lost arguably their best defender in Chandler Jones to injury last week. Without Jones, I look for Dalton to navigate the very beatable Cards defense and help this one 'over' the posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Bills | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 5 pm et on Monday. The reasoning behind this play is fairly simple. I don't believe the Bills defense, which was severely overrated early in the season, can keep the Chiefs at bay for four quarters on Monday night, nor do I believe Josh Allen and the Bills offense will be able to avoid the mistakes that will ultimately result in a lopsided Chiefs victory. Kansas City suffered a clear letdown last Sunday as it wasn't sharp in any facet of the game in a loss to the Raiders. That one stung. Now the Chiefs have had extra time to stew on that loss and I look for them to come up big on Monday in Buffalo. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans OVER 53 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair as the Texans and Titans do battle on Sunday afternoon in Nashville. This is a big-time smash spot for Texans QB Deshaun Watson who looked relaxed and sharp without the specter of head coach Bill O'Brien hanging over him last week. Things should really open up for the Texans offense against a Titans defense that has allowed just under 5.6 yards per rush this season. Likewise, Houston's defense has also allowed well north of five yards per rush this season so it would come as no surprise if Titans RB Derrick Henry kept rolling here this week. Keep in mind, Houston will be without run-stopper Benardrick McKinney after he suffered a shoulder injury last week. Houston has offered no resistance against opposing passing games this season so this is also a green-light spot for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill who continues to be severely undervalued by most. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the Browns are rolling right now I can't help but feel they're ripe for a blowout at the hands of the Steelers on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are capable of absolutely shutting down Cleveland's ground attack, having allowed just north of three yards per rush this season. Take away the Browns running game and you severely deplete their offense, especially with QB Baker Mayfield banged up. Meanwhile, the Steelers offense continues to round into form. The fact is, Pittsburgh has been one of the three most impressive squads in the NFL in the first month-plus of the season as far as I'm concerned. I look for the Pittsburgh offense to absolutely gash a suddenly overrated Browns defense here on Sunday afternoon at Heinz Field. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-17-20 | North Carolina -13 v. Florida State | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with North Carolina in its double-digit victory over Virginia Tech last Saturday and I'll back the Tar Heels again this week as they head out on the road to face 1-3 Florida State. The Tar Heels are one of the hottest teams in the nation in this unique 2020 college football season but it has gone largely unnoticed by most casual observers. The folks that matter have taken notice, however, giving North Carolina a lofty top-10 ranking. I look for the Tar Heels to live up to expectations for another week. Perhaps some bettors were put off by the Heels in their narrow four-point win as a two-touchdown favorite against Boston College two weeks ago - their only road game so far this season. UNC was clearly almost caught flat-footed in that contest but won't be caught off guard against a storied Florida State program here on Saturday. I don't believe the Seminoles have the personnel to keep up with the Tar Heels for four quarters. We saw UNC take Virginia Tech far away from its gameplan last Saturday and I expect a similar story to unfold here. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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10-17-20 | Texas A&M -4.5 v. Mississippi State | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas A&M minus the points over Mississippi State at 4 pm et on Saturday. Mississippi State came up with a huge upset win on the road against LSU in its season-opener but has accomplished very little since, dropping back-to-back games against Arkansas and Kentucky. I don't expect the Bulldogs to pick themselves up off the mat in this clash with Texas A&M. The Aggies are fresh off a big win over Florida last Saturday. Their lone blemish is a loss at Alabama - albeit in blowout fashion - back on October 3rd. This is the start of a stretch of three straight truly winnable games for Texas A&M and I look for it to make the most of the opportunity. There's a bigger gap between these two SEC squads than the oddsmakers are accounting for. Take Texas A&M (10*). |
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10-17-20 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -6 | 34-7 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Kentucky at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won by fading Tennessee in an eventual lopsided loss at Georgia last week but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Vols this week as they return home to host Kentucky in SEC action. Kentucky is fresh off a 24-2 rout of upstart Mississippi State. Keep in mind, the Wildcats are still just 1-2 on the season, including a 29-13 loss at Auburn in their lone previous road game. The Vols meanwhile check in 2-1 with victories at South Carolina and at home against Missouri with the latter coming in blowout fashion. Off a poor showing against an elite Georgia defense last week I look for Vols QB Jarrett Guarantano to turn in a strong performance here. I don't see the Wildcats offense keeping pace for four quarters and believe we're dealing with a very reasonable pointspread here. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston +5 | Top | 43-26 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over BYU at 9:30 pm et on Friday. BYU remains undefeated on the season but after laying two touchdowns or more in three consecutive layups against inferior opposition, it will face a tough test on the road against Houston on Friday. With Houston having played just once it's not easy to for the oddsmakers to set an accurate line for this one and I feel they've missed the mark. QB Clayton Tune wasn't at his best in last week's rout of Tulane, but still managed to throw a pair of touchdown passes and run for another while amassing over 300 yards through the air. BYU certainly looked flat in last week's narrow 27-20 win over Texas-San Antonio. The Cougars will be taking a considerable step up in class here and I look for them to fall short of the mark in terms of the pointspread. Take Houston (10*). |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State UNDER 73 | 52-59 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Arkansas State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in last night's Sun Belt clash and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Georgia State is coming off a wild 49-29 shootout win last week but that came at the expense of East Carolina - a team that will be involved in plenty of shootouts this season. Likewise for Arkansas State as the Red Wolves are fresh off a 50-27 win over Central Arkansas - another team with a tendency to get involved in wild, high-scoring affairs. Add in the fact that last year's meeting between Georgia State and Arkansas State reached 90 total points and you can understand why I believe we're dealing with an inflated total here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Houston at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. This has been a low-scoring series to this point but I expect some offense on Wednesday night as the Rays send Tyler Glasnow to the hill against Zack Greinke. Glasnow has enjoyed a terrific 2020 season but lately we've seen him labor a bit, working at least six innings in just three of his last seven starts. The Astros will obviously be in desperation mode down 3-0 in the series and while that by no means guarantees success at the plate, I do expect them to put up a fight here. Speaking of laboring, Astros veteran starter Zack Greinke has struggled through two postseason starts against the Twins and A's and now faces an even better offense in the Rays. You would have to go back to September 8th to find the last time he worked six innings in a game. With the 'under' having cashed in three straight games to open this series I believe we're getting some value going the other way with the 'over' on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 59 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. I'll take a shot with the 'under' as the Chanticleers and Ragin' Cajuns do battle in Sun Belt action on Wednesday night. Coastal Carolina has put up a whopping 133 points in going a perfect 3-0 this season. However, this will be their toughest test to date (they did face a Big 12 opponent but that was a bottom of the barrel Kansas squad). Louisiana-Lafayette has given up just 63 points in going a perfect 3-0 to start the season. Keep in mind, the Chanticleers haven't played since October 3rd while the Ragin' Cajuns have been idle since way back on September 26th. In keeping with the tradition of playing midweek 'unders', I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NLCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Atlanta at 6:05 pm et on Wednesday. This is by all accounts the Dodgers last stand as they try to avoid falling behind 3-0 in the NLCS on Wednesday night. Los Angeles certainly showed plenty of fight late in last night's game - a tough 8-7 loss - and I look some carry-over from that performance here. If there's a Braves starter they can get to it's Kyle Wright, who takes the ball today. Wright pitched well in a spot start against the Marlins last round but he'll face a tougher challenge here. Note that he lasted at least six innings in just four of eight regular season starts and was tagged for at least four earned runs in three of those outings. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He has held his own in two postseason starts, allowing just four hits and no earned runs while fanning 11 and walking just one in eight innings of work. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-13-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NLCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 6:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen scoring diminish since the start of the LCS with all three games in the American and National League staying 'under' the total. I expect more of the same on Tuesday afternoon as the Braves and Dodgers play Game 2. Ian Anderson has been outstanding for the Braves. In two postseason starts he has allowed just five hits and no earned runs while striking out 17 and walking only three in 11 2/3 innings of work. I certainly expect Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw to rise the occasion against the young Anderson here. Kershaw has allowed three earned runs on nine hits while posting a 19:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in two postseason starts this year. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. |
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10-11-20 | Lakers -5 v. Heat | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. Game 5 on Friday night had very much the look of a 'last stand' of sorts from Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. Left exhausted at the end of that thrilling affair, I'm not convinced the Heat can keep pace with the Lakers for four quarters on Sunday night. Lebron James' critics have once again come out of the woodwork following that missed opportunity to close this series out in Game 5 - despite his 40-point, 13-rebound performance. I certainly expect another positive response from Lebron (and perhaps more importantly, his supporting cast) here. The Lakers have essentially controlled this series from the jump and I'm not going to knock them for slipping up in their first shot at closing out the series on Friday. Miami has shown plenty of resiliency throughout these playoffs and has proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out'. However, now we're dealing with a very reasonable price to back what is sure to be a determined Lakers squad eager to bring an end to 'bubble life' and deliver the Larry O'Brien trophy back to Los Angeles. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 53.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Cowboys have been an 'over' machine since their lower-scoring than expected season-opener against the Rams in Los Angeles and there's little reason to jump off the train here. The Giants offense has obviously struggled in the absence of RB Saquon Barkley but there's some reason for optimism as they face an absolutely putrid Cowboys offense on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should feast on a Giants defense that has yet to face an offense like that of Dallas this season. This Cowboys offense is on a record-setting pace and the G-Men will be hard-pressed to come up with answers. With that being said, the 'Boys are single-digit favorites (at the time of writing) for a reason and we could see a competitive game here. That lends itself to a high-scoring affair in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Raiders v. Chiefs -11 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Las Vegas at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Chiefs, even as they play on a short week following Monday's sleepy win over the undermanned Patriots. Las Vegas has fallen on hard times following a hot start, and it's had everything to do with its schedule - which certainly doesn't get any easier here. I don't like the look of the Raiders offense right now at all, with RB Josh Jacobs stuck running behind a weak offensive line, and QB Derek Carr once again struggling to generate any productive plays down the field. Meanwhile, the Chiefs should feast on a Raiders defense that can't stop the run (they're giving up over five yards per rush this season) and are average against the pass. TE Travis Kelce should go off in this contest as he has traditionally owned the Raiders defense. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-27-20 | Nebraska v. Iowa OVER 53 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
11-26-20 | New Mexico v. Utah State +6.5 | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
11-26-20 | East Tennessee State v. Austin Peay -5.5 | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
11-25-20 | Toledo v. Bradley -158 | 59-61 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
11-25-20 | Real Madrid v. Inter Milan OVER 3 | 2-0 | Loss | -111 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
11-25-20 | Drake +5.5 v. Kansas State | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
11-24-20 | Club Brugge KV v. Borussia Dortmund OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
11-24-20 | Barcelona FC v. FC Dynamo Kiev +0.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
11-22-20 | Packers v. Colts UNDER 51.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
11-22-20 | Patriots v. Texans OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
11-22-20 | Steelers v. Jaguars OVER 46 | 27-3 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
11-22-20 | Steelers -10 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
11-21-20 | San Diego State v. Nevada +1.5 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
11-21-20 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern UNDER 44.5 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
11-21-20 | East Carolina -3.5 v. Temple | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
11-21-20 | Real Madrid v. Villarreal +0.5 | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
11-20-20 | Purdue v. Minnesota +3 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -147 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 56.5 | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan | Top | 52-44 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green +31.5 | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | 19-13 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
11-15-20 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | Top | 12-37 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
11-15-20 | Bucs -5.5 v. Panthers | Top | 46-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
11-15-20 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 44.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
11-14-20 | Temple v. Central Florida -25.5 | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
11-14-20 | Nevada -17 v. New Mexico | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -107 | 34 h 41 m | Show |
11-14-20 | Wake Forest v. North Carolina -12.5 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +4 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -113 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
11-12-20 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 48.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
11-11-20 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois OVER 57.5 | 40-10 | Loss | -109 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -8 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -116 | 35 h 50 m | Show |
11-10-20 | Akron v. Ohio UNDER 57 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
11-08-20 | Broncos v. Falcons OVER 49.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
11-08-20 | Ravens v. Colts UNDER 48.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show | |
11-08-20 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 50 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
11-07-20 | New Mexico v. Hawaii -15 | 33-39 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 56 m | Show | |
11-07-20 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 55.5 | Top | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 59 h 28 m | Show |
11-07-20 | Michigan -3 v. Indiana | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 49 | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada -15.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
11-04-20 | Ball State +2.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
11-04-20 | Manchester United v. Basaksehir OVER 3 | Top | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
11-03-20 | Inter Milan v. Real Madrid OVER 3 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
11-03-20 | Borussia Monchengladbach +120 v. Shakhtar Donetsk | Top | 6-0 | Win | 120 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +13 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles -10.5 | 9-23 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show | |
11-01-20 | Titans v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
11-01-20 | Colts v. Lions UNDER 50 | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
10-31-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas State OVER 56 | 44-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
10-31-20 | Northwestern v. Iowa UNDER 46.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
10-31-20 | Wake Forest -12 v. Syracuse | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
10-31-20 | Chelsea -178 v. Burnley | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
10-30-20 | East Carolina v. Tulsa UNDER 62 | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers OVER 49 | 25-17 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 60 m | Show | |
10-29-20 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 52 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10-28-20 | Lokomotive Leipzig v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
10-27-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
10-27-20 | Real Madrid v. Borussia Monchengladbach UNDER 3 | 2-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
10-27-20 | Ajax Amsterdam +0.5 v. Atalanta | 2-2 | Win | 108 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
10-27-20 | Inter Milan -125 v. Shakhtar Donetsk | 0-0 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays OVER 8 | 4-2 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
10-25-20 | Bucs -3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Steelers +1.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
10-25-20 | Bills -10 v. Jets | 18-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
10-25-20 | Packers -3 v. Texans | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
10-24-20 | Dodgers -164 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Michigan v. Minnesota +3.5 | 49-24 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
10-24-20 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +3.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Temple v. Memphis OVER 69.5 | 29-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
10-23-20 | Tulsa v. South Florida OVER 49.5 | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State UNDER 68 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10-21-20 | Atletico Madrid v. Bayern Munich UNDER 2.75 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -169 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
10-20-20 | Sevilla +0.5 v. Chelsea | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys OVER 55 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
10-19-20 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Bills | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans OVER 53 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
10-17-20 | North Carolina -13 v. Florida State | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
10-17-20 | Texas A&M -4.5 v. Mississippi State | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show | |
10-17-20 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -6 | 34-7 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston +5 | Top | 43-26 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State UNDER 73 | 52-59 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 59 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10-13-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Lakers -5 v. Heat | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 53.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
10-11-20 | Raiders v. Chiefs -11 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show |