Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-30-22 | Pittsburgh v. UCLA -7.5 | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Pittsburgh at 2 pm et on Friday. The Bruins fell out of favor with many bettors thanks to an 0-3 ATS slide to close out the regular season. After starting the campaign 8-1, UCLA dropped two of its last three games SU to drop from what likely would have been a more prestigious Bowl game as well. I don't expect the Bruins to be short on motivation, however. Both teams are going to be missing a number of key contributors due to transfers and opt-outs, although the argument could be made that the Bruins are in slightly better shape in that regard, as indicated by the pointspread we're dealing with here. We'll lay the points. Take UCLA (8*). |
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12-30-22 | Maryland v. NC State | 16-12 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State minus the points over Maryland at 12 noon et on Friday. Maryland heads into this Bowl matchup off a 37-0 drubbing of Rutgers. The Terps didn't gain Bowl eligibility until the second-last game of the regular season. On a positive note, Maryland did go an even 6-6 ATS in lined contests during the regular season while N.C. State went a woeful 4-8 ATS. That's largely a product of everyone being so high on the Wolfpack going into this season. They delivered the cash in two of their first three contests and ultimately ended up being overvalued most of the way. That's not the case here as they're in a pk'em price range against Maryland. Here, we'll note that Maryland is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games following a win by 21 or more points against a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take N.C. State (8*). |
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12-30-22 | North Carolina -5.5 v. Pittsburgh | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Pittsburgh at 12 noon et on Friday. The Pitt Panthers enter this game riding an incredible eight-game ATS winning streak but I expect it to end here against the mighty Tar Heels of North Carolina. The Tar Heels have faced the much tougher schedule this season - 14th most difficult in the nation according to KenPom. In stark contrast, the Panthers have faced the 199th toughest schedule. North Carolina failed to deliver the cash last time out but just missed in a four-point victory (as a 5.5-point favorite) against Michigan. I expect a more straight-forward result on Friday. Take North Carolina (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Washington v. Texas OVER 67 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 10 m | Show |
Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Texas at 9 pm et on Thursday. I don't expect either offense to have any trouble moving the football up and down the field, not to mention ending drives with 7's in this 'defense-optional' Bowl matchup. Texas will be without RBs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson but that should only lead to more passing and there's little reason to expect QB Quinn Ewers to be faced with any sort of resistance against the Huskies sieve-like pass defense. What will be an issue for Texas will be the gaping hole on defense left by the absence of LB DeMarvion Overshown. This isn't a particularly deep defense and Washington certainly has the pieces on offense to take advantage of any weaknesses. Note that the Huskies didn't suffer any sort of drop-off in production at all away from home this season, averaging 4.8 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass attempt. It's all systems go for the Huskies here with QB Michael Penix and the rest of his weapons healthy and ready to go. Of note, this will be Penix's first-ever Bowl game and I expect him to show up and show out. Take the over (10*). |
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12-29-22 | St. Thomas v. South Dakota +1.5 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on South Dakota plus the points over St. Thomas at 8 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this sets up as a bounce-back spot for South Dakota as it enters off a stunningly-poor offensive effort against UMKC. USD has now dropped four games in a row both SU and ATS after opening the campaign with five victories in its first eight contests. St. Thomas on the other hand rolls in riding a four-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. It won its most recent road game by a 76-70 score at Idaho State. Here, we'll note that St. Thomas has yet to register consecutive road victories this season. Meanwhile, South Dakota has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.1 points in its last nine home games when coming off an upset loss, as is the case here. Take South Dakota (10*). |
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12-29-22 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -2 | 50-46 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Texas minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 8 pm et on Thursday. This is a 'shock to the system' spot for Florida Atlantic as it hits the road for the first time since December 4th, riding a 10-game winning streak (9-0 ATS) and facing one of the best defensive teams in the country in North Texas. The Mean Green Eagles are hot as well, winners of five straight games and two in a row ATS. You would have to go all the way back to November 13th - UNT's first game of the season - to find the last time it allowed an opponent to make good on 20 or more field goals. Also note that North Texas has faced the far tougher schedule according to KenPom - 146th compared to 285th - in this matchup. The Owls winning streak grinds to a halt here. Take North Texas (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Clippers v. Celtics -6 | 110-116 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Clippers have been one of the best bets in the league in recent weeks but we'll fade them here as they head to Boston off consecutive ATS victories on their current five-game road trip. Note that the Celtics are hot as well, winners of three straight games both SU and ATS. I don't think there's any letdown in order for the C's here as they dropped their lone previous matchup with the Clippers this season by a whopping 20 points in Los Angeles. With the Clips having allowed their last three opponents to make good on 47, 44 and 43 field goals, I think the Celtics are catching them at the right time here. Boston cleaned things up defensively last time out, holding Houston to just 38 made field goals on 95 attempts. On the flip side, the C's have knocked down 44, 50 and 43 field goals over their last three contests. Look for them to keep rolling on Thursday. Take Boston (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Red Wings v. Sabres -155 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll fade the Red Wings off last night's incredible comeback victory over the Penguins - their second straight win in an underdog role. Here, they'll face a red hot Sabres squad that has reeled off four consecutive victories and are already 2-0 in this series this season, scoring a whopping 13 goals in the process. Note that Detroit has played road games on back-to-back nights just nine times over the last three seasons, as is the case here, and has been outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that situation, allowing 4.7 goals per game. Take Buffalo (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Senators v. Capitals -165 | 4-3 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll fade the Senators off Tuesday's upset win over the Bruins. The Capitals are red hot, winners of five in a row and 10 of their last 11 games overall with Alex Ovechkin stealing the spotlight as he chases Wayne Gretzky's all-time goals record. Everything is clicking for the Caps right now as they've scored four or more goals in eight of their last 10 games and held nine of their last 11 opponents to two goals or less. The Sens snapped a three-game losing streak on Tuesday but that was at home. They're 6-10 on the road this season where they've been outscored by 0.6 goals per game on average. Meanwhile, Washington is 11-6 on home ice, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 goals on average. Take Washington (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Rangers v. Lightning -128 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I think this is a game the Lightning have had circled since dropping a 3-1 decision in New York way back on the opening night of the season. As healthy as they've been all season, I feel the Bolts are poised to go on a run and last night's 4-1 victory over the Canadiens could serve as the perfect jumping off point. New York has cooled off, dropping two of its last three games, most recently falling by a 4-0 score at home against the Capitals. Note that the Rangers will be up against it here as the Lightning have gone an incredible 22-3 when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. They're also an incredible 30-6 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the same stretch, also outscoring foes by 1.8 goals on average in that spot. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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12-29-22 | Providence v. Butler -1.5 | 72-52 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Butler minus the points over Providence at 6:30 pm et on Thursday. While Providence is the hotter team right now, there's actually only two games separating these two teams this season, despite the fact that Butler has faced the far more difficult schedule (according to KenPom). While Providence has faced the 294th most difficult schedule so far, Butler checks in having gone against the 40th toughest slate. Here, we'll fade the Friars as they come off a 103-point effort against Marquette - their fifth consecutive SU and ATS victory. Butler is in a prime bounce-back spot at home after losing its last two games, with both of those defeats coming in blowout fashion. Take Butler (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9 | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Oklahoma at 5:30 pm et on Thursday. I simply feel that Oklahoma has too many key losses to overcome on offense in order to keep pace with one of the more underrated offensive teams in the country this season in Florida State. We actually won fading the Seminoles with the rival Florida Gators in their regular season finale. That was a back-and-forth contest that the 'Noles took over in the second half and we were probably fortunate to cash our ticket with Florida. Oklahoma will have to make do without RB Eric Gray and a pair of critical offensive linemen in Wanya Morris and Anton Harris, with that trio opting-out of this Bowl game. I would anticipate the Sooners scaling back their offense somewhat with those absences in mind, not a good thing when you're trying to keep up with an offense as explosive as Florida State's. The Seminoles will have no such issues in terms of opt-outs. QB Jordan Travis will start and has announced his return for next season. Here, he'll face a sieve-like Sooners defense that didn't travel particularly well this season, allowing 4.8 yards per rush and 7.2 yards per pass attempt away from home. Take Florida State (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Minnesota v. Syracuse UNDER 42.5 | 28-20 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Syracuse at 2 pm et on Thursday. With so many coaching changes and player opt-outs and two lukewarm offenses but capable defenses taking the field, I'm expecting nothing other than a relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday in the Bronx. Arguably Syracuse's top two offensive players will miss this game in RB Sean Tucker and OT Matthew Bergeron. That leads me to believe we'll see a scaled-back version of the Syracuse offense against a Minnesota defense that yielded just 3.8 yards per rush and 6.4 yards per pass attempt this season. It remains to be seen whether the Golden Gophers have the services of QB Tanner Morgan. Even if he can play, there's no guarantee he can finish the game. While Minnesota doesn't have quite the big losses on offense to deal with, the fact that it lost WR Chris Autman-Bell to a season-ending injury back in October was the biggest blow of the campaign. Like Syracuse, Minnesota has performed reasonably well defensively allowing 3.8 ypr and 6.1 yppa this season. Take the under (8*). |
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12-28-22 | Ole Miss v. Texas Tech OVER 71.5 | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Texas Tech at 9 pm et on Wednesday. |
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12-28-22 | Duquesne v. Dayton OVER 131 | 57-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duquesne and Dayton at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I think Dayton is in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here after holding Wyoming and Alcorn State to fewer than 50 points in consecutive games. Duquesne has displayed a solid floor when it comes to point totals this season, scoring 66 points or more in 11 of 13 games to date. With both teams having faced similar schedules in terms of difficulty according to KenPom, you could argue that Duquesne has been the better offensive team. Defensively, the Dukes leave a lot to be desired, however, allowing three more made field goals on one less field goal attempt per game compared to the Flyers. Dayton is favored by nearly double-digits for a reason here but I do think Duquesne can at least bait it into a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). |
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12-27-22 | Hornets +4.5 v. Warriors | 105-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the banged-up Warriors off their stunning Christmas Day rout of the Grizzlies as a 7.5-point underdog. While they do catch the Hornets in a back-to-back spot, Charlotte is off a double-digit loss in Portland. I like the way the Hornets have been pushing the envelope offensively, hoisting up 92 or more field goal attempts in eight straight games entering Tuesday's contest. It's been a much different story defensively, but I do think they're well-positioned here with the undermanned Warriors having made good on 43 or fewer field goals in seven straight games and Sunday's 91-FG attempt performance marking a four-game high (they had gotten off 81, 74 and 83 FG attempts in their previous three contests). Simply put, it's difficult to win by margin when you're only attempting 80-83 FG attempts per game, especially against a team like the Hornets that will find its offensive opportunities regardless (they've scored over 100 points in 11 straight games). Take Charlotte (8*). |
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12-27-22 | Knicks +5.5 v. Mavs | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Knicks as they look to snap their three-game losing streak in Dallas on Tuesday night. New York has been quite efficient offensively, despite its recent losing ways, knocking down 42 or more field goals in four straight games entering this contest. They lost at home against the 76ers on Christmas Day despite limiting Philadelphia to only 77 field goal attempts while getting off 90 themselves. I expect a reversal of fortunes here noting that the Mavericks are fresh off a nine-point win (and cover) over the Lakers on Christmas Day, getting off a four-game high 84 FG attempts while holding Los Angeles to a six-game low 80 in that affair. Dallas took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 21 points in New York earlier this month. New York had swept the two-game series last season, winning those contests by 23 and 30-point margins. Take New York (8*). |
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12-27-22 | Jacksonville v. Notre Dame OVER 129 | Top | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Jacksonville in its most recent game but I think it's in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here as it travels to face Notre Dame which is in a 'sling-shot' situation after a tough three-game stretch that saw it face Marquette, Georgia and Florida State. With that being said, I don't think we see the Irish run away and hide in this one. Note that Jacksonville has impressively gone 7-3 despite facing the 32nd toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom. The Irish are actually allowing five more made field goals on only two additional shot attempts per game this season in comparison with the Dolphins. The two teams are virtually mirror images of one another offensive, from a statistical standpoint at least, in the early going this season. I expect both to find some success here and we're dealing with a reasonably low total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-27-22 | Utah State v. Memphis -7.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Utah State at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday. To put it simply, I believe Memphis is a better team than its 6-6 overall record would seem to indicate while Utah State is worse than it's own six-win campaign shows. Utah State opened the season with four losses in its first five games - with the only win coming against a down-trodden (at the time) UConn squad that was just figuring things out. From there the Aggies posted a stunning win over Air Force (with the benefit of playing that game at home) and then got on a bit of a run in early November thanks to a forgiving slate of games that saw them face New Mexico and San Jose State at home and lowly Hawaii on the road. Only one of those three victories came in comfortable fashion (against New Mexico). The Aggies are expected to have RB Calvin Tyler for this game, despite him declaring for the NFL Draft. I'm always hesitant to project playing time for players in similar situations in these lower-end Bowl games. Third-string QB Cooper Legas is expected to start once again. He's proven to be a sack-taking and interception-throwing machine this season in place of Utah State's best two options at the position. Memphis saw three of its six losses during the regular season come by a field goal or less. I liked what I saw out of the Tigers down the stretch as they beat Tulsa handily at home and gave SMU all it could handle on the road in going a perfect 3-0 ATS over their last three contests. Stout against the run (they've allowed just 3.5 yards per rush this season with an insignificant drop-off when playing away from home) they're well-positioned to slow down the Aggies inconsistent offense here. Speaking of consistency, Memphis has scored at least 24 points in all 12 games this season. Utah State was held under the number on five different occasions during the regular season. I like the fact that Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield was given a vote of confidence despite the middling campaign. He's been told that he will be back for the 2023 season. Take Memphis (10*). |
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12-26-22 | Wolves +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the T'Wolves here as I'm confident they can at the very least take this game down to the wire in a matchup of two teams riding two-game losing streaks. Minnesota had won three games in a row prior to dropping tough decisions against the Mavericks and Celtics. They still enter Monday's contest having made good on 42 or more field goals in five straight games, while holding three of their last six opponents to 34 or fewer made shots. Miami had also been hot prior to dropping its last two games, winners of four in a row. I don't see the same level of consistency from the Heat offense, however, noting that they've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in seven of their last 10 contests. Interestingly, the T'Wolves have knocked down four more field goals per game than the Heat this season, despite getting off just one more field goal attempt per contest. At the other end of the floor, Minnesota has allowed one more made field goal but on five additional attempts yielded to opponents. The T'Wolves should come in with confidence having taken all three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 113-104 win here in Miami last March. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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12-25-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 223.5 | 118-139 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Milwaukee and Boston at 5:10 pm et on Sunday. I see this as a potential blow-up spot for the Celtics offense against a Bucks defense that has struggled to find its way in the early going this season. Milwaukee checks in having allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in five of its last seven games overall. Meanwhile, the Celtics have gotten off an incredible 100 or more field goal attempts in four of their last eight contests. The C's certainly looked in-sync on Friday as they knocked down 44 field goals and scored 121 points in a double-digit win over Minnesota. Defensively, the C's have allowed six of their last seven opponents to knock down 42 or more field goals. My concern here is that we see a lopsided contest and one side or the other takes the air out of the basketball in the second half, so we'll play the first half 'over' the total only. Take the first half over (10*). |
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12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. We'll take this opportunity to fade the injury-riddled Rams one more time on Sunday as they return home on a short week to host the Broncos. Denver's defense should feast on a depleted Rams offense that is now without WR Ben Skowronek in addition to all of the key contributors they were previously missing, particularly on the offensive line. While I'm by no means high on the Broncos offense, I do believe they can find plenty of open field against Los Angeles here. The Rams seemingly gave their backers some false hope with that come-from-behind home win over the Raiders two-plus weeks ago. I think we saw something closer to the real Rams in their current state in Monday's ugly road loss against the Packers. Returning home where there might be as many Broncos fans as Rams fans in the stands, we'll back the visitors here. Take Denver (8*). |
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12-24-22 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. San Diego State | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over San Diego State at 8 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade the Aztecs here against an underrated Middle Tennessee State squad that quietly finished the regular season with three straight victories. San Diego State's offense turned around after a coaching shake-up earlier in the season, with quarterback turned safety turned quarterback Jaylen Mayden taking over under center. From my perspective, Mayden is a sack-taking and interception-making machine and I believe the Middle Tennessee State defense can take advantage. Note that the Blue Raiders forced three or more turnovers in five of 12 games this season. Given a couple of extra possessions, I don't expect MTSU to have too much difficulty staying inside this lofty pointspread. Keep in mind, while the Aztecs plodding offense took much of the flack early in the campaign, their defense never showed a great deal of consistency over the course of the season either, allowing 27 or more points on five different occasions. Take Middle Tennessee State (8*). |
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12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 47.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 39 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Saturday. It seems that the Eagles intentions are clear heading into this one as they're expected to give QB Gardner Minshew the start after Jalen Hurts injured his shoulder in last Sunday's win in Chicago. While it doesn't sound like Hurts' injury is all that serious, he's likely to sit as Philadelphia owns a comfortable three-game cushion atop the NFC East. While there are some that believe backup Minshew can keep the train rolling offensively, I'm not in that group. I don't expect the Eagles to put a whole lot on Minshew's plate here. The Eagles still have enough offensive playmakers to churn out some long, clock-eating drives but I question how many of those drives they can end with seven points on the board. The Cowboys probably aren't all that interested in getting involved in another shootout here - not after last week's disappointing overtime loss in Jacksonville. They've now seen the 'over' cash in four straight and six of their last seven games overall but I look for that streak to end here. Note that the first meeting between these two teams totalled 43 points. That was with Cooper Rush at quarterback for the Cowboys of course. I do think we see Dallas scale back its offense a bit here after turning the football over five times in the last two games. While Philadelphia is without Hurts on offense, its defense remains healthy and poised to shoulder the load here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-24-22 | Commanders v. 49ers OVER 37.5 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be a fun one in Santa Clara on Saturday afternoon as the Commanders head west on a short week off last Sunday night's tough divisional home loss against the Giants. Washington's defense goes as far as its pass rush takes it but I question how much pressure they can generate against a stout 49ers offensive line that has done a nice job of keeping rookie QB Brock Purdy upright in the last two games (just one sack allowed). Washington is expected to have DE Chase Young back but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be in his first game back (or how many snaps he'll be on the field for). The 49ers offense is incredibly difficult to prepare for, regardless who is at quarterback. Meanwhile, the Commanders struggled to put points on the board last Sunday against the Giants, but once again flashed that big play potential with a terrific set of weapons around inconsistent QB Taylor Heinicke. Head coach Ron Rivera has hinted at making a change back to Carson Wentz at quarterback but for now Heinicke is the guy and I do think we'll see the Commanders offense rally around him with a strong bounce-back performance here. Take the over (8*). |
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12-24-22 | Falcons v. Ravens OVER 34.5 | 9-17 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Saturday. While somewhat muted, I do think we see a bit of a 'sling-shot' effect from the two offenses here. Atlanta has been held to 13, 16 and 18 points over its last three games - the first time this season it has been held under 23 points in three consecutive games. Yes, the presence of rookie QB Desmond Ridder does put a fairly low ceiling on this offense but is he really all that much worse of an option than Marcus Mariota? The Ravens will give Tyler Huntley another start as Lamar Jackson still isn't ready to return. Like the Falcons offense, the Ravens 'O' is in bounce-back mode after being held to 10, 16 and 3 points in its last three contests. Prior to that, Baltimore hadn't been held under 20 points in consecutive games all season. By this point, Huntley should be more than comfortable running the offense (keeping in mind he's seen significant playing time prior to this season as well) and draws a favorable matchup against a porous Falcons defense here. Take the over (8*). |
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12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat UNDER 224 | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers scored 117 points in an upset victory in Boston last time out but needed a whopping 98 field goal attempts to get there. It's highly unlikely they come close to approaching that level of production here as Miami has held five of its last seven opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts, including these same Pacers back on December 12th, in a game that totalled just 169 points. For their own part, the Heat aren't scoring with much consistency right now, knocking down 40 or more field goals just once in their last six contests. The Pacers have quietly held the opposition in check lately, yielding just 38, 39 and 39 made field goals over their last three games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-22 | Jets v. Capitals OVER 6 | 1-4 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the chances of a high-scoring affair developing on Friday night in Washington as both of these teams are well-positioned for offensive breakouts after getting held down last night. Winnipeg dropped a 3-2 decision in Boston last night. Note that the Jets have scored 4, 1, 4, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 2 and 5 goals off a loss this season - pretty good in other words. The Capitals won in overtime in Ottawa last night and have seen the 'over' go 25-10 after winning four of their last five games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.7 goals in that situation. All three meetings between these two teams last season saw exactly seven total goals scored. Take the over (8*). |
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12-23-22 | Houston -7 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Louisiana at 3 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this Bowl matchup sets up for Houston, which had a down year by program standards but still managed to win seven games and I believe will get up for this matchup against Louisiana. Note that QB Clayton Tune and WR Nathaniel Dell both announced that they'll play in this game - a clear sign that the team is taking this Bowl appearance seriously. Dell in particular could have easily opted out after declaring for the NFL Draft. It's a much different story for Louisiana, which will be missing its top wide receiver and perhaps best offensive player in WR Michael Jefferson. Remember, the Ragin' Cajuns already lost QB Ben Wooldridge for the season back in November. Backup Chandler Fields has held his own but has taken a ton of sacks given his limited playing time and has also proven to be turnover-prone through the air. Houston didn't have a banner campaign from a defensive standpoint - far from it, in fact - but it is just one game removed from its best defensive performance of the season in a 42-3 rout of East Carolina, on the road no less. Louisiana faced a relatively weak schedule this season and fell hard (by a 49-17 score) in a late step-up game against Florida State. The Ragin' Cajuns enter this contest off a 41-13 win at Texas State but it's worth noting that they went 0-3 SU and ATS after scoring 30 or more points in a game this season, dropping those three decisions by 12, 15 and 32 points. Take Houston (10*). |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. While the presence of Zach Wilson under center will keep a lot of bettors off the Jets on Thursday night, I'm not in that group as I expect them to take full advantage of this winnable in-conference matchup in primetime. Last Sunday's game had a dream setup for the Jets as they hosted the Lions who happened to be in a prime letdown spot. New York had every opportunity to win that game but ultimately fell apart late, allowing Detroit to sneak through the back door with a late touchdown. Here, I don't believe Jacksonville will be so fortunate. The Jags of course pulled off a stunning home upset over the Cowboys last Sunday, rallying from down big early to steal a victory in overtime. That win didn't come without a price, however, as the Jags lost key offensive lineman Cam Robinson and now go against a fierce Jets defense that I'm still not sure gets enough praise or credit for all it has accomplished this season. The Jags offense is undoubtedly on the rise but here, on a short week, off that massive performance last Sunday, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order. I mentioned the presence of Jets QB Zach Wilson earlier. He's starting out of necessity only as Mike White remains sidelined. I actually thought Wilson had one of his better games against the Lions last Sunday, even if he did make a couple of boneheaded mistakes. Here, I don't think we'll see the Jets heap too much on Wilson's plate. The Jags don't defend the pass particularly well, nor do they do a great job of containing opposing running backs, both on the ground and in the short passing game. Note that Jacksonville will be without one of its best pass rushers in first overall draft pick Travon Walker for this one. I believe this line will prove too short in favor of the home side. Take New York (10*). |
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12-22-22 | Air Force v. Baylor UNDER 43 | 30-15 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Air Force and Baylor at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I can understand the temptation to go with the 'over' in this relatively low-totalled contest on Thursday. I'm not convinced it's the right decision, however, as Air Force battles Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl. While the Falcons option-based offense gets all of the press, they proved they can play some defense this season as well. Only one of Air Force's 12 opponents has completed at least 20 passes and that was FCS squad Northern Iowa way back in Week 1 - in a game where the Falcons still gave up only 17 points. They also held the opposition to just 3.6 yards per rush. I can't help but feel Baylor's best days are behind it from an offensive standpoint. After scoring 38 or more points in five of its first nine games, Baylor put up 3, 28 and 27 points over its final three contests. The real problem for the Bears this season was their defensive play. They fired their defensive and special teams coordinators at the end of the regular season and this game will mark the first step toward turning the page in that department. I think Air Force's relatively one-dimensional offense does help Baylor's cause here, noting that the Bears have allowed just 138 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush this season. The Bears regular season finale against Texas was a good example of their offensive inconsistency. After scoring their second touchdown of the game with less than a minute remaining in the first half, they never reached the end zone again on offense, only scoring a touchdown on a defensive fumble return early in the fourth quarter. It was a similar story the game previous against TCU as the Bears scored two touchdowns in the game's first 18 minutes but then didn't find the end zone again until the first minute of the fourth quarter. Take the under (8*). |
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12-22-22 | Islanders +1.5 v. Rangers | 3-5 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Islanders +1.5 goals over the Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. To find the last time the Islanders lost a game here in Manhattan, you would have to go back six meetings, all the way to January of 2021. Most of the matchups here at Madison Square Garden since then haven't been particularly close either, with the Isles skating to wins by 2, 4, 1, 3 and 1 goal. Here, we have the opportunity to grab an insurance goal with the visiting Isles at what I would consider a reasonable price given how little there is separating the two sides this season. Note that the Islanders have gone 9-9 on the road this season, outscoring the opposition by 0.2 goals on average. Meanwhile, the Rangers are just 7-10 on home ice, outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. The Isles have actually outscored opponents by 0.7 goals on average when coming off four losses in their last five games over the last three seasons (13-game sample size), as is the case here. Similarly, they've outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.6 goals when playing on the road off a one-goal defeat over the last three seasons (15-game sample size), which is also the situation here. Take the Islanders +1.5 goals (8*). |
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12-21-22 | Bellarmine v. Evansville OVER 127.5 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Bellarmine and Evansville at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I simply feel this total will prove too low as these two teams look to bounce back from losses suffered last time out. Bellarmine has faced one of the toughest schedules in the nation this season - 10th most difficult according to KenPom - yet still checks in a respectable 105th in the country in offensive rating. I expect it to bring a barrage of threes against a vulnerable Evansville defense here (the Purple Aces rank 276th in the nation in terms of defensive rating). Bellarmine has played at a slow pace so far this season but that's had a lot to do with the level of competition they have gone against. The Purple Aces are a short underdog for a reason here, but do have something to build on after scoring 72 and 69 points, knocking down 18 threes along the way, in their last two games. I do think they can at least keep pace here and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair as they look to go into the holiday break (they won't play again until the 29th) on a positive note. Take the over (8*). |
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12-21-22 | Bucks v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take this opportunity to fade the Cavs, who check in 8-5 straight-up on the road this season but have been outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points per contest. The Cavs are 15-2 on their home floor, laying waste to the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points per game. While it's true Milwaukee just dismantled a good New Orleans team in a 128-119 victory in the Big Easy two nights ago, the Bucks are also just two games removed from a 41-point rout at the hands of the Grizzlies in Memphis. The Cavs are riding a four-game winning streak and will have revenge in mind here after dropping the first two meetings in this series this season (both games were played in Milwaukee). Cleveland took both matchups on its home floor last season and neither game was all that competitive with the Cavs winning by 16 and 18 points. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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12-20-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 233.5 | 91-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. A letdown was certainly to be expected from the Grizzlies last time out as they went into Oklahoma City after scoring 128 and 142 points in home wins over the Hawks and Bucks, what turned out to be the tail-end of a seven-game winning streak. While the Grizz still got off 90 field goal attempts in the loss to the Thunder, they made good on just 34 of those shots. Here, they do draw another forgiving defensive team in Denver, noting that the Nuggets have allowed 41 or more made field goals in six of their last eight games and more than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Denver had rattled off eight straight games shooting better than 50% from the field before slowing down in its last two contests. I expect it to get right back on track here, noting that Memphis has allowed five straight opponents to hoist up 90 or more FG attempts and gives up an average of 42 made field goals per game away from home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-20-22 | Toledo v. Liberty +4 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Liberty plus the points over Toledo at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab all the points I can get with Liberty on Tuesday as it looks to make it four consecutive Bowl victories while adding to Toledo's postseason woes under head coach Jason Candle. The Flames are turning the page after head coach Hugh Freeze bolted for Auburn. If anything the rumors swirling around Freeze and the Auburn job down the stretch only served to distract a team that had been rolling prior to losing its final three contests. Liberty's most recent victory was an impressive one as it defeated Arkansas 21-19, on the road no less. After dealing with injuries to its top two quarterbacks down the stretch, all indications are that the Flames quarterback room is healthy and ready to roll against the Rockets here. Defensively, Liberty did lose linebacker Ahmad Walker to the transfer portal and that stings to be sure. However, this is a deep group and one that proved it can handle a mobile quarterback similar to the one they'll face tonight in Dequan Finn, limiting Arkansas QB K.J. Jefferson to just 36 rush yards on 16 attempts, good for only 2.3 yards per rush, back in early November. Toledo has dropped the cash in five of its last six games. Prior to its win and cover in the MAC Championship Game it needed to score 38 points or more in its four previous ATS victories this season. Take Liberty (8*). |
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12-20-22 | Toledo v. Liberty OVER 52.5 | 21-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toledo and Liberty at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair as Toledo and Liberty, two teams that have enjoyed completely opposite Bowl results in recent years, do battle in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday. I'm counting a 'sling-shot effect' from the two offenses in this contest. Toledo got bogged down offensively down the stretch - part of that had to do with dual-threat QB Dequan Finn being banged-up. It does draw Liberty missing its top linebacker in Ahmad Walker after he transferred to SMU. The Flames got completely distracted down the stretch, seemingly so at least, and you can't really blame them as they dealt with rumors swirling around head coach Hugh Freeze's impending departure to Auburn - rumors that came to fruition at the end of the regular season. Now they've had time to regroup and I expect a much better showing here, led by an offense that finally has its quarterback room healthy again. Liberty has a legitimate three-headed monster at quarterback and should be able to give the Rockets middling defense fits in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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12-20-22 | Jacksonville -6.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 12:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with Jacksonville on Tuesday as I'm higher than most on the Dolphins (noting that they've faced the 14th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom). Today's opponent, Louisiana-Monroe, picked up its fourth win of the season against Lamar last time out. Keep in mind, Lamar is a 4-8 squad as well, one that has yet to post a win over a Division-I opponent. The Warhawks previous three victories this season came against the likes of Dallas Christian, Central Baptist and Champion Christian College. Jacksonville has actually dropped the cash in consecutive games entering this one but one of those contests came against a solid 9-3 N.C.-Wilmington team and the other was a nine-point victory (missing the cover by only a bucket) over Charleston Southern. You'd be hard-pressed to find an area of the game where the Dolphins don't own an edge in this matchup - perhaps shot blocking is the lone exception. I'll lay the points. Take Jacksonville (8*). |
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12-19-22 | Weber State v. Utah State -15.5 | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Weber State at 9 pm et on Monday. We'll lay the points with the Aggies here as they look to continue their red hot start to the season against Weber State. While Weber State has faced the tougher schedule so far this season according to KenPom, the difference is negligible with the Wildcats going against the 116th most difficult slate and Utah State checking in at 126th. With that in mind, Utah State has posted vastly superior numbers at both ends of the floor. The Aggies have made good on nine more field goals per game compared to Weber State, on exactly nine more attempts per contest. They've hit five more three-pointers per game on only four additional attempts from beyond the arc by comparison. It's a similar story at the other end of the floor with Utah State allowing one less made field goal per game, on six additional shot attempts per contest. From the outside, both teams have allowed eight made threes per game but Utah State has done so on two more attempts allowed. With Weber State coming off a stunning 74-45 win as a 5.5-point underdog at Cal-Poly, we'll fade the Wildcats in this letdown spot. Take Utah State (8*). |
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12-19-22 | Rams v. Packers -7 | Top | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Credit the Rams for rallying, led by QB Baker Mayfield, a week ago Thursday, stunning the Raiders with a pair of late touchdowns to steal a victory at home. That win had more to do with Las Vegas taking its foot off the gas than anything else - something I don't expect the Packers to do in front of their home faithful at Lambeau Field on Monday. It's easy to forget Green Bay actually won (and covered) in its most recent game two weeks ago in Chicago. That solid performance against a 'tough out' in the Bears proved that the Pack haven't given up on the season. In fact, I believe their trajectory is pointed up with their offense finally coming around and well-positioned to feast against an Aaron Donald-less Rams defense on Monday. RB Aaron Jones has been dealing with a multitude of injuries but coming off the bye week should be as healthy as he's been in quite some time, and he stands to benefit more than anyone on the Packers offense from the absence of Donald and key run-stopper A'Shawn Robinson. All of the talk last week was about Baker Mayfield somehow absorbing enough of the Rams offensive playbook in just two days (he had signed with the team earlier in the week). Now he's had a little more time to digest the Rams offensive scheme so many expect him to come out firing on Monday. I expect precisely the opposite, noting that Mayfield is still operating behind a poor run and pass blocking offensive line (mostly due to injuries) and with a limited group of weapons around him. Green Bay, despite its overall struggles this season, has remained stout against the pass and should be able to snuff out any thought of Mayfield stringing together a second straight solid performance. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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12-19-22 | Magic v. Hawks -7 | 125-126 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This is a prime letdown spot for the Magic as they come in 'fat and happy' off a two-game sweep of the Celtics in Boston and now play their second game in as many nights, in Atlanta on Monday. The Hawks are desperately trying to find some consistency, winners of just two of their last seven games overall. The good news is, they're coming off one of their best performances of the season as they defeated Charlotte 125-106 on Friday. On the heels of two days off and having scored 116 or more points in four of their last five games, I look for them to pull away for a convincing win over the upstart Magic on Monday. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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12-19-22 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Capitals | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit +1.5 goals over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I like the spot for the Red Wings here as they look to snap their five-game losing streak against the Capitals in Washington on Monday. Detroit fell by a 6-3 score in a game that was closer than the final score indicated against Ottawa on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the Red Wings are 9-3 when coming off consecutive losses by three goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Capitals are just 8-15 when playing at home after scoring four goals or more in their previous game over the same stretch, outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Washington has allowed 3.7 goals per game while being outscored by 0.8 goals on average when coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last two seasons (13-game sample size), as is the case here. While the Wings are just 6-8 on the road this season, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. We'll grab the insurance goal here. Take Detroit +1.5 goals (10*). |
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12-19-22 | Connecticut v. Marshall OVER 40.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Marshall at 2:30 pm et on Monday. This game is being pegged as a defensive slugfest or at least a sloppy affair according to the total, which sits in the low-40's at the time of writing. I believe we could be in for a far more entertaining, high-scoring contest than most are expecting, however. Both offenses trended in the right direction down the stretch. UConn scored 27, 36 and 17 points in its final three games with the outlier being a game in which run-heavy Army took the air out of the football (that contest still reached 51 points). Marshall scored 28, 23 and 28 points in its final three contests. UConn is expected to get a major offensive boost for this game with previously injured wide receivers Keelan Marion and Cam Ross expected to be back on the field. Marshall welcomed RB Rasheen Ali back for the final two regular season games and he went off, running for 181 yards in those two contests. It's hard to imagine the Huskies having any answers for the Thundering Herd's dynamic backfield duo of Ali and Khalan Laborn, noting that UConn has been cooked for 168 rush yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush this season. Those numbers jump to 218 rush ypg on 5.2 ypr away from Storrs. Take the over (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Giants v. Commanders OVER 40.5 | 20-12 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Washington at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. With New York having scored 24, 18, 20, 20 and 22 points over its last five games and Washington having put up 32, 23, 19 and 20 points in its last four contests, both of these teams have exhibited reliable scoring floors, if not sky-high ceilings in recent weeks. Neither team will have the element of surprise in its favor here after the two teams played to a 20-20 tie in the Meadowlands two weeks ago (we won with the Giants plus the points in that game). It is worth noting that both offenses did whatever they wanted in that game for the most part, save for scoring touchdowns at the end of drives. Here, Washington should be able to clean things up off its bye week while New York is in a prime bounce-back spot after facing the league-best Eagles last Sunday. Both sides are missing key pieces defensively with CB Adoree' Jackson still sidelined for the Giants and DE Chase Young ruled out for the Commanders. Take the over (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Nets v. Pistons +7.5 | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Brooklyn at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Nets are rolling right now, already a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS on their current road trip and winners of five consecutive games overall. I think this is a tough game to get up for, however, as they head to Detroit to take on the lowly Pistons on Sunday. Detroit will be revenge-minded in this one after dropping all four matchups against the Nets last season. Note that Brooklyn checks in a woeful 2-11 ATS after covering the spread in three of its last four games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 8.4 points in that situation. The Nets are also just 19-31 ATS after winning four or five of their last six games, as is the case here, over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by just 1.9 points on average in that spot. The Pistons, meanwhile, have gone 39-20 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons. Take Detroit (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Titans v. Chargers OVER 46.5 | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm always looking for spots to play the 'over' in games involving the Chargers and off consecutive 'under' results, I believe it's go-time again on Sunday afternoon. The Titans have seen their last two games go 'over' the total. After being held to 19 points or less in four straight games they've now scored 22 or more points in two of their last four contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 9-1 when Tennessee plays on the road off a loss over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 54.7 points in that spot. Off three straight losses, I do expect to see the Titans go back to their bread-and-butter on Sunday and that means a heavy dose of RB Derrick Henry. While more running doesn't generally support an 'over' play, I think it's a different story here with the Chargers vulnerable against the run, yielding north of 5.0 yards per rush this season. Meanwhile, the Titans are banged-up in their secondary and likely to get cooked by QB Justin Herbert and his full compliment of weapons here. Take the over (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Quinnipiac -3.5 v. St. Peter's | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Quinnipiac minus the points over St. Peter's at 2 pm et on Sunday. Neither of these teams have faced difficult schedules with Quinnipiac checking in having gone against the 342nd toughest slate of games according to KenPom and St. Peter's having faced the 357th most difficult. With that being said, Quinnipiac has certainly handled its business a little better, going 9-2 compared to the Peacocks 5-5 mark. The visitors have made good on three more field goals per game compared to the home side, despite getting off one less attempt per contest. From beyond the arc, Quinnipiac has knocked down one more three per game on one less attempt as well. Defensively, these two sides are difficult to compare but Quinnipiac has yielded four more made field goals per game, albeit on 10 additional attempts from the field on average. Take Quinnipiac (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Belmont v. Chattanooga -5 | 83-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chattanooga minus the points over Belmont at 2 pm et on Sunday. The difference in strength of schedule between these two teams this season is not insignificant with Chattanooga having faced the 154th toughest according to KenPom and Belmont checking in having gone against the 234th most difficult. With that in mind, Chattanooga has still managed to post better numbers at both ends of the floor. It has made good on one more field goal per game despite averaging one less attempt compared to Belmont. Chattanooga has also allowed two fewer field goal makes to the opposition despite those foes getting off five more attempts per game compared to Belmont. It's been virtually a wash from beyond the arc, although Chattanooga would appear to have a slight edge defensively in that department as well, yielding just one additional made three per game on five more attempts by comparison. Take Chattanooga (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Chiefs -14 v. Texans | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Chiefs almost let one get away after building a big early lead in Denver last Sunday. I don't expect them to let their foot off the gas again this week, however, and they catch the lowly Texans in a prime letdown spot off last week's near-upset win in Dallas. While Kansas City did allow 28 points against a seemingly punchless Broncos squad last Sunday, that poor performance can't really be pinned entirely on the defense as the offense turned the football over three times. You can be sure head coach Andy Reid has been preaching about playing a 'clean' football game in response this Sunday. The Texans were already down-trodden defensively and now they'll have to deal with the absence of both corners, standout rookie Derek Stingley and Steven Nelson. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Chiefs offense. While Kansas City enters this game off consecutive ATS losses, it has yet to drop the cash in three straight games this season, responding by scoring 41 and 44 points in two previous contests following consecutive ATS defeats here in 2022. The Texans ultimately covered the spread in Dallas last Sunday but haven't delivered back-to-back ATS victories since way back in Weeks 1 and 2 this season. Take Kansas City (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Eagles v. Bears UNDER 48.5 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. While this game is being pegged as a potential shootout, I believe there's a good chance we see both offenses frustrated on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. The Eagles are in a prime letdown spot offensively after scoring a season-high 48 points in last Sunday's rout of the Giants (we won with Philadelphia in that game). The Bears come out fresh off their bye week but with an offense that has regressed, scoring 24, 10 and 19 points over the last three games since putting up 30 or more points in consecutive games earlier in November. The 'over' has actually cashed in each of the Bears last seven contests but this game matches the highest total we've seen over that stretch. For the Eagles, this is the highest total we've seen since October 9th in Arizona - a game that ended up reaching just 37 total points. Both defenses should be familiar with what they'll face on Sunday as quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields are two of the most mobile pivots in the league and the defenses see them operate every day at practice. I believe there's a good chance this develops into a bit of a chess match on Sunday afternoon in the Windy City. Take the under (10*). |
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12-18-22 | France v. Argentina | 2-2 | Push | 0 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on France pk (90 minutes) over Argentina at 10 am et on Sunday. I'll take a flyer on France in the World Cup Final on Sunday as it looks to secure its second straight title going back to 2018. Argentina has been a great story in this tournament with Messi taking his last run at the trophy for his country. The fact that it has done so after many wrote it off following a tournament-opening loss to Saudi Arabia is impressive to say the least. I've been more impressed by France's complete body of work in this tournament, however. Even against a cagey Morocco squad in the semi-final round, when it was under siege for much of the contest, the French held strong and ultimately prevailed by a 2-0 score. You'd be hard-pressed to find any France starter rating out poorly in this tournament. Even goalkeeper Hugo Lloris has seemingly gotten stronger as the tournament has gone on, saving his best for that semi-final victory over Morocco. I do think Argentina has some weakness on its back line, particularly on the right side. Keeper Emiliano Martinez was strong against Croatia but has had an up-and-down tournament. While there's a good chance this contest ultimately needs extra time to decide, I'm willing to back France at a lower price as it looks to halt Argentina's five-game winning streak and claim the title of 'best in the world' once again. Take France pk (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Islanders v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in the Islanders 4-3 loss in Boston earlier this week but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they look to snap their three-game skid in Las Vegas on Saturday. Note that the 'over' has cashed in each of the Isles last two games. That's notable as the 'under' has gone 26-9 with the Isles coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of just 4.4 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 14-5 with New York playing on the road off consecutive games that totalled seven goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 4.7 goals in that situation. It's a similar story for the Golden Knights as they've posted a 10-21 o/u mark when coming off a road win by two goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with an average total of only 5.1 goals scored in that spot. In fact, the 'under' is 11-1-3 in the Knights 15 home games to date this season, averaging just 4.7 total goals per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 43 | Top | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
AFC Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two AFC East foes this season but probably deserved a better fate after that game got off to a quick start but stalled out thanks to a number of failed red zone trips from the Bills. Miami played keep-away in the south Florida heat on that day in late September, needing to do so to keep its banged-up defense off the field as much as possible. I expect a much different story to unfold in Buffalo on Saturday. Miami has been held down offensively in consecutive losses to the 49ers and Chargers but I expect it to 'get right' here. The Bills are going to be without key run-stopper Jordan Phillips while Matt Milano is banged-up as well. That should open the door for the Fins to restore some offensive balance and ultimately feed Buffalo's front-line a heavy dose of RB Raheem Mostert. The success of Miami's ground game figures to open things up for Tua Tagovailoa and its suddenly dormant passing attack. I'm never all that worried about where the points will come from when it comes to the Bills. They were held in check for the most part against a tough Jets defense last Sunday but should bounce back in sling-shot fashion here. Miami's defense has been good for stretches but has been on the field for an awful lot of football over the last two weeks (thanks to the ineptitude of the offense) and now faces the unenviable task of containing the Bills on a short week, not to mention on the road for the third straight game. This is a blow-up spot for Bills WR Stefon Diggs as Dolphins top corner Xavien Howard hasn't looked right all season due to various injuries. We're seeing a sharp drop from the total in the first meeting this season (that total was set in the low-50's). I don't believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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12-17-22 | Grizzlies v. Thunder +9 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the down-trodden Thunder here as they look to snap their five-game losing streak (not to mention get back at the Grizzlies after dropping both previous meetings this season) on Saturday nigiht in Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies are of course red hot off seven consecutive wins both SU and ATS. It's worth noting however that they've only managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 1.6 points when playing on the road off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons (13-game sample size). Teh Thunder are 27-15 ATS after losing five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons and 17-6 ATS over the same stretch when coming off four or more losses in a row, outscored by only 3.1 points on average in that latter situation. Note that last season, the Thunder went 2-1 ATS against the Grizzlies despite getting drilled by a ridiculous 73 points in their first matchup of the season. Memphis has won only two of 14 road games by double-digit margins this season and it needed to get off nine more field goal attempts against Sacramento and eight more against Detroit to do so. It's unlikely it will benefit from that sort of shot disparity here as it checks in having allowed 90+ field goal attempts to each of its last four opponents while Oklahoma City has limited three of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Ravens v. Browns -3 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Ravens last Sunday in Pittsburgh but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Browns as they host Baltimore on Saturday afternoon. It wasn't pretty, but the Ravens got the job done against the Steelers last week. QB Tyler Huntley turned in a gutsy performance but now has to play on a short week after suffering a head injury in last Sunday's game. Baltimore will certainly look to lean on its defense again here, but I don't like the spot as Browns QB Deshaun Watson has now had two games under his belt - both on the road no less - and can lean heavily on his backfield, which is line line for a sharp bounce-back performance here. Baltimore has been excellent against the run lately, but has faced a rather straight-forward slate of opponents going all the way back to late October when it travelled to Tampa. The Ravens last six games have come against teh Bucs, Saints, Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos and Steelers - none of which boast a ground attack as dynamic as Cleveland's in my opinion. I saw enough good things from Watson last Sunday and enough improvement from the Browns lagging defense (noting that they catch a favorable matchup against a banged-up Ravens offense here) to warrant a shot with the revenge-minded home side here. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Grambling State +18 v. Virginia Tech | 48-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Grambling plus the points over Virginia Tech at 4 pm et on Saturday. I don't think this will be the beatdown most are expecting on Saturday afternoon in Blacksburg. Grambling State has actually faced the slightly tougher schedule compared to ACC opponent Virginia Tech this season (203rd toughest compared to 206th according to KenPom). In spite of that, Grambling's numbers hold up reasonably well here. Virginia Tech has been the better team offensively, but from a defensive standpoint, the Hokies have allowed five more field goal attempts per game with the opposition making good on all five of those in comparison to Grambling. Grambling has given up the same number of made three-pointers per contest as Virginia Tech, but on three additional attempts from beyond the arc per game. While Grambling has knocked down three fewer threes itself per game, that's on eight fewer attempts compared to the Hokies. Take Grambling (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Miami-OH v. Bellarmine -6.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Bellarmine minus the points over Miami-Ohio at 4 pm et on Saturday. Bellarmine has quietly faced the fourth toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. While Miami-Ohio hasn't exactly faced a cupcake-laden sked, it ranks 178th in the country in that department. In spite of that, Bellarmine has arguably posted the better numbers at both ends of the floor. It has made good on just one less field goal per game compared to Miami-Ohio, despite getting off an average of six fewer attempts per contest. It has also knocked down an identical nine three-pointers per game despite hoisting up two fewer attempts from beyond the arc. Defensively, Miami-Ohio yields seven more made field goals per contest (on nine additional attempts). Bellarmine allows one less made three-pointer per game despite the opposition getting off three additional attempts from outside. You get the idea. Take Bellarmine (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Fresno State v. Washington State +4.5 | 29-6 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Fresno State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I like the set up for Washington State here as it comes off an embarrassing 51-33 loss against rival Washington in the Apple Cup and faces a Fresno State squad that is perhaps primed for a letdown off an upset win over Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Yes, the Cougars have been ravaged by opt-outs and transfers and also their offensive and defensive coordinators ahead of this game. I believe we're seeing a definite overreaction that all of that news, however, with Washington State shifting from a 2.5-point favorite at open to a 4.5-point underdog currently. Fresno State was able to pull away from the awful teams it faced over the course of the regular season (I'm talking about the likes of Cal Poly, New Mexico, Hawaii, Nevada and Wyoming). Rarely did it step up in class and win in convincing fashion, however, with the exception being that 28-16 victory over Boise State in the MWC Championship Game. Everyone is down on Washington State after that blowout loss to Washington after it had previously reeled off four consecutive ATS wins. While there's plenty of talk about the Cougars personnel losses entering this game, they will get back one of their best defenders in CB Armani Marsh, a true difference-maker in the secondary and a huge plus against a dynamic Fresno State passing attack led by QB Jake Haener. Take Washington State (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Sam Houston State -3.5 v. Texas State | 69-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sam Houston State minus the points over Texas State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Sam Houston State has quietly faced the 31st toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Texas State checks in having faced the 253rd most difficult schedule. In spite of that, SHSU has posted better numbers at both ends of the floor. SHSU has made good on six more field goals per game on just nine additional attempts per contest compared to Texas State. Defensively, the visitors have allowed five fewer made field goals per game on only two fewer attempts per contest. It's a similar story from beyond the arc with SHSU knocking down three more three-pointers per game on seven additional attempts and holding the opposition to just one more made three per contest on six additional attempts from outside. Take Sam Houston State (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Florida v. Oregon State UNDER 53 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Oregon State at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. Most are anticipating a shootout between these two teams on the fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Saturday. I'm not so easily convinced. The Florida Gators will start third-string QB Jack Miller III after Anthony Richardson opted out and backup Jalen Kitna was arrested on child pornography charges. That's not the only issue as the Gators will be without key offensive linemen O'Cyrus Torrence and Josh Braun. Torrence's absence in particular stings as he rates out as one of the best o-linemen in the country. We can expect the Gators to put this one in the hands of their ground game for the most part. Oregon State exploded in the second half for a stunning come-from-behind win over rival Oregon in its regular season finale. Keep in mind, the Beavers scored a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining in the first quarter in that game but didn't reach the end zone again until less than three minutes remaining in the third quarter and much of their offensive success came after the Ducks inexplicably let down their guard nursing a seemingly insurmountable lead. We know the script when it comes to the Beavers without standout QB Chance Nolan. They'll put the game on the shoulders of their ground attack and defense with QB Ben Gulbranson having attempted no more than 28 passes while throwing for 250 yards or less in every game he appeared in (nine) this season. With both teams coming off wild, high-scoring affairs in their respective regular season finales, I can't help but feel this total is inflated. Take the under (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Tenn-Martin +6 v. Bowling Green | 75-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee-Martin plus the points over Bowling Green at 2 pm et on Saturday. There's little separating these two teams in terms of strength of schedule to this point with Tennessee-Martin checking in having faced the 257th toughest schedule according to KenPom and Bowling Green having gone against the 283rd most difficult slate of games. With the former coming in on an extended ATS slide I believe the pendulum has swung far enough to back it in this spot. Note that Tennessee-Martin knocks down four more field goals per game compared to Bowling Green this season, on only one additional attempt on average. It also makes good on two more three-pointers per contest one one more three-point attempt per game compared to BGSU. It's a similar story defensively, with both sides allowing 27 made field goals per game but Tennessee-Martin doing so on four more attempts per contest allowed. I expect this one to go down to the wire and will grab all the points I can get with the visitors. Take Tennessee-Martin (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Providence v. Seton Hall -2.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seton Hall minus the points over Providence at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the short number with Seton Hall here as it looks to best Providence in a matchup of two teams riding identical three-game winning streaks. Only one game separates these two teams this season with Providence checking in with the slightly better overall record. All records aren't created equal, however, at least not in college basketball. Providence has faced the 349th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Seton Hall checks in having gone against the 61st most difficult schedule. Providence does own the better offensive numbers this season but Seton Hall can hold its own, and then some, defensively having allowed four fewer made field goals per game (on four fewer attempts per contest on average) compared to the Friars. Opponents are knocking down two fewer three-pointers per contest against Seton Hall despite hoisting up an identical 19 three-point attempts per game compared to Providence. I mentioned that the Friars have been superior offensively but not necessarily from beyond the arc, where both teams check in having made good on 6-of-19 threes per game. Take Seton Hall (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Morocco v. Croatia OVER 2.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 48 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Morocco and Croatia at 10 am et on Saturday. Neither of these teams managed to find the back of the net in the semi-finals earlier this week but it wasn't for lack of trying. Morocco in particular was certainly deserving of at least one, maybe two goals against France, but ultimately fell by a 2-0 score. Here, I'm confident we'll see the upstart Moroccans 'go for it' in an effort to give their supporters a little something tangible to take away from this thrilling tournament. It's a similar story for Croatia, albeit it was a little more uninspiring in its 3-0 defeat at the hands of Leo Messi and Argentina in the semis. Like Morocco, we know what Croatia is capable of and I do expect it to also push for goal with virtually nothing to lose in this contest. Keep in mind, these two countries met in the Group Stage of this tournament, playing to a 0-0 draw. That was a predictably cagey affair with a lot on the line in the early stages of the tournament. This is a much different situation with both sides looking to put on a show and ultimately wrap up a consolation prize on Saturday in Qatar. I expect to see something of a 'slingshot effect' with both sides coming off so many tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affairs (the 'under' 2.5 goals has come through in five of Croatia's last seven games and five of Morocco's last six contests). Take the over (8*). |
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12-16-22 | Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 228.5 | 114-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in this same matchup in Chicago two nights ago. While that contest reached a whopping 248 total points, it was aided by overtime, not to mention both teams shooting the lights out. I expect a different story to unfold in Friday's quick rematch. Note that the 'under' is 18-5 with the Bulls coming off five or six losses in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of only 215.2 points in that spot. The Bulls have also seen the 'under' cash at an 18-8 clip when coming off consecutive defeats over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 222.7 points, still comfortably below the number we're dealing with tonight (at the time of writing). It's not as if this has been a particularly high-scoring series. Of last season's four meetings, three totalled 213 points or less. Wednesday's 'over' result snapped a six-game 'under' streak for the Knicks and their road games have still totalled an average of just 224.7 points this season. Meanwhile, the Bulls have seen their home games total an average of 225.8 points. I simply feel this total has been set too high as a result of Wednesday's track meet. Take the under (8*). |
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12-16-22 | Austin Peay v. Murray State -6.5 | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Murray State minus the points over Austin Peay at 8 pm et on Friday. It hasn't been a banner start to the season for Murray State and that was clear in its most recent game as it struggled to get past Chicago State as a double-digit favorite, ultimately winning that game by a single point. I do like the way the matchup favors the Racers on Friday, however, as they host Austin Peay. While the latter has faced the 205th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom, Murray State has faced the 153rd most difficult. That's notable as the Racers have advantages at both ends of the floor in spite of it. Murray State has gotten off one less field goal attempt per game this season but has actually made good on one additional shot per contest compared to Austin Peay. At the defensive end of the floor it's really no contest as Murray State has allowed one more made field goal per game in comparison with Austin Peay, but on 10 more attempts per contest. In a similar vein, Murray State's opponents have knocked down one more three-point attempt per game compared to Austin Peay, but on seven additional attempts on average. We'll confidently lay the points with a Racers squad that took both meetings last season by double-digit margins. Take Murray State (8*). |
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12-16-22 | Nets v. Raptors UNDER 227 | 119-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Having lost three games in a row and after allowing 124 points against the Kings two nights ago, I can't help but feel the Raptors main focus will be on tightening things up defensively ahead of this clash with the Nets on Friday. Offensively, Toronto did put up 123 points against Sacramento, but it needed 94 field goal attempts (knocking down 50% of those) to get there. Here, we'll note that the Nets have seen the 'under' go 33-16 when the total has been set between 220 and 229.5 over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 222.3 points. Meanwhile, the Raptors have posted a 3-13 o/u mark when playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games ATS over the same stretch, leading to an average total of only 209.2 points in that situation. None of the three previous meetings between these division rivals this season have sniffed out tonight's posted total, reaching just 214, 210 and 219 total points. Take the under (8*). |
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12-16-22 | Hawks v. Hornets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Friday night in Charlotte. The Hawks have gotten drilled in the first two games of their current road trip, allowing 128 and 135 points in lopsided defeats in Memphis and Orlando. You have to imagine they'll be looking to button things up defensively in this one, noting that they've actually allowed 120 points or more in four straight games heading in. The good news is, they've allowed just 91 and 116 points in their last two trips to Charlotte going back to last season with neither of those contests coming close to approaching the lofty total we're dealing with tonight. Charlotte is reeling as well having lost six consecutive games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-13 with the Hornets playing at home off a loss over the last three seasons, 13-3 when playing at home off two straight losses over the last two seasons and 9-1 when at home following three consecutive defeats over the same stretch. Perhaps better still, the 'under' is 15-5 with Charlotte playing at home after losing four or five of its last six games ATS over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 214.5 points in that spot - a full 20 points below the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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12-16-22 | Miami-OH v. UAB OVER 45 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami-Ohio and UAB at 11:30 am et on Friday. I can't help but feel this total is way off. Neither of these teams have shown any ability to stop or even slow opposing ground attacks, at least lately in the case of Miami-Ohio and all season long when it comes to UAB. The Blazers boast one of the most underrated or overlooked 1-2 tandems in the backfield in the nation in RBs Dewayne McBride and Jermaine Brown and figure to feast on a Miami-Ohio defense that never really got it together over the course of the season. On the flip side, the Blazers were eviscerated for 172 rush yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush over the course of the season. While the Redhawks backfield hasn't been all that explosive, I do think their ability to run the football should open things up for the passing game here. It's worth noting that three of Miami-Ohio's five highest-scoring performances of the season came in its last four contests. UAB's defense - much like Miami-Ohio's - entered the season with optimism but was never able to truly flourish, allowing 20 or more points in 10 of 11 games against FBS opposition. The only occasion where it did hold an FBS opponent to fewer than 20 points that contest still reached 55 total points in a rout of Middle Tennessee State. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-22 | Cal-Irvine +2 v. Santa Clara | 74-86 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-Irvine plus the points over Santa Clara at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Anteaters of Cal-Irvine have faced the 58th toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom (Santa Clara checks in at 157th) yet have all but matched the Broncos numbers to date. In fact, UC-Irvine averages four more made field goals per game on only two additional attempts compared to Santa Clara. It also knocks down an identical eight three-pointers per contest despite getting off six fewer attempts per game from beyond the arc. It's a similar story at the defensive end of the floor. Santa Clara gives up seven more field goal attempts per game compared to UC-Irvine, with opponents making good on five of those extra seven shots. On four more three-point attempts yielded per game, the Broncos allow a per game average of three additional makes from beyond the arc. Add in the fact that UC-Irvine has seen its opponents knock down a likely unsustainable 71% of their free throw attempts, and I like the Anteaters chances of staging a minor upset here. Take Cal-Irvine (8*). |
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12-15-22 | Pelicans -1 v. Jazz | 129-132 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. Utah took the front half of this two-game set in Salt Lake City two nights ago but I look for the Pelicans to answer back on Thursday. Utah has actually taken both meetings in this series so far this season. However, it's worth noting that neither team has managed to pull off a three-game winning streak in the series over the last 11 meetings going back to 2020. New Orleans checks in averaging the same number of made field goals per game as Utah this season, but on one fewer attempt per contest. It knocks down four fewer three-pointers per game but that's on nine fewer attempts on average. At the other end of the floor, the Pelicans give up two fewer made field goals per contest, on two fewer attempts. Utah is giving up three fewer made threes per game - but again, that's on seven fewer attempts from beyond the arc. I'll bite with the Pelicans here. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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12-15-22 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I think a lot of bettors are talking themselves into backing the home divisional underdog in Seattle on Thursday but I feel it's the wrong move. I don't believe 49ers QB Brock Purdy is going to be a 'one-and-done' story. Yes, he is probably getting too much hype off last Sunday's monster first half against the Buccaneers. That doesn't mean that he can't enjoy continued success, however. The fact is, the Niners gameplan should be focused around getting RB Christian McCaffrey the ball here anyway as the Seahawks have been dismal against the run and could be without one of their best run-stoppers in DT Al Woods after he suffered an achilles injury in last Sunday's loss to the Panthers. The Niners have injury issues of their own, of course, most notably to do-it-all WR Deebo Samuel. This is a deep offense, however, and I'm confident we'll see guys like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and even Jauan Jennings step up in Samuel's absence. While San Francisco has yielded plenty of yardage to opposing wide receivers this season, that's really only because it has been playing from ahead so much and opponents have bailed on their ground attacks after gaining little headway. How about this - the Niners last six opponents have run for 56, 51, 67, 63, 33 and 69 yards. While I am high on Seahawks rookie RB Kenneth Walker, who is expected to return from injury here, I'm not convinced he'll do anything other than run into the Niners line over and over again on Thursday. Seattle allowed a whopping 30 points to the lowly Panthers last week. That's notable when you consider the Niners haven't allowed 30 points over their last three-and-a-half games. In fact, the Seahawks have yielded 93 points over their last three contests while San Francisco hasn't given up that many points over its last six games combined. I did consider playing the Niners on the moneyline here given the fact that we have seen a number of games decided by a field goal or less between these division rivals over the years. However, noting that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS in games where the line closed at a field goal or less involving these teams this season, I'll confidently lay the points with the visitors here. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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12-15-22 | Maple Leafs v. Rangers +110 | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The last time we saw the Maple Leafs on the road they were a slight underdog in Dallas. Now they're favored as they head to Manhattan to face a red hot Rangers squad that has won four straight games, and has a rest advantage having not played since skating to an overtime win over the Devils on Monday. Here, we'll note that Toronto is a woeful 2-10 when playing on the road after winning four or more consecutive games over the last three seasons, allowing 4.2 goals per game while being outscored by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. The Rangers have allowed just 2.1 goals per contest while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals when playing at home off a home victory over the last two seasons (19-game sample size). Take New York (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Bowling Green v. Norfolk State -4.5 | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Norfolk State minus the points over Bowling Green at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Norfolk State as it looks to pick up a second victory over Bowling Green in as many years following last year's 90-84 road triumph. According to KenPom, Norfolk State has faced the 19th toughest schedule in the nation this season. Bowling Green on the other hand checks in having gone against the 297th toughest. In spite of that, the Falcons have made good on two fewer field goals per game compared to Norfolk State, on six more attempts. It's a similar story at the defensive end of the floor where Bowling Green has allowed three more made field goals on only one additional attempt compared to Norfolk State. The Falcons have recorded two of their three highest-scoring games of the season over their last two contests and perhaps that is holding plenty of water with this line. I simply feel that Norfolk State is the superior team at both ends of the floor and will once again frustrate Bowling Green after keeping the Falcons on the perimeter for much of last year's contest between the two teams (BGSU hoisted up 40 three-point attempts, making only 12 in that game). Take Norfolk State (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 226.5 | 128-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are anticipating with the Bulls coming off consecutive high-scoring contests. In stark contrast, the Knicks have seen each of their last six games stay 'under' the total. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 31-17 with New York playing on the road off an ATS win over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of only 208.4 points. As for the Bulls, they've seen the 'under' go 23-10 after losing four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 218.9 points in that spot. This season, Chicago has posted a 3-11 o/u mark when coming off a loss, with an average total of 221.1 points scored in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Stetson +15 v. College of Charleston | 60-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stetson plus the points over Charleston at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I realize that this is a 'revenge game' for Charleston after it went on the road and lost by eight points as a 5.5-point favorite against Stetson in last year's meeting between the two teams. I also realize that Charleston is off to a terrific 10-1 start to the season while Stetson checks in at 5-3. Still, I'll happily grab the generous helping of points with the underdog side here as I like the way it matches up. Note that Stetson has quietly faced the 72nd toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. By contrast, Charleston checks in having gone against the 107th most difficult schedule. With that said, Stetson has made good on one more field goal per game (one one less attempt) compared to Charleston while also allowing two fewer made field goals on just one less attempt. Stetson has also knocked down 10 three-pointers per game - an identical average to that of Charleston, however Stetson has done it on three fewer attempts per contest. I just don't believe there's as much separating these two squads as is seemingly being indicated by the lofty pointspread. Take Stetson (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Queens NC +3.5 v. East Tennessee State | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Queens plus the points over East Tennessee State at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Noting that East Tennessee State hasn't really faced anyone of substance this season (345th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom) and still limps into this contest having lost five of its last seven games SU and all six from an ATS perspective in lined contests over that stretch, I'm not sure it has any business laying points here. Queens has done nothing but impress, going 8-2 SU overall and 6-1 ATS in lined games this season. It checks in having knocked down two more field goals per game compared to East Tennessee State, while getting off only one additional attempt per contest. It also allows only two more made field goals per game despite yielding nine more attempts than ETSU. It goes on from there - Queens makes good on nine three-pointers per game compared to six for ETSU, with the former only attempting four additional shots from beyond the arc. You get the idea. We'll grab the points here. Take Queens-Charlotte (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Coastal Carolina +4.5 v. South Dakota | 87-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over South Dakota at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take a flyer on Coastal Carolina here in this rematch of a meeting on November 26th - the Chanticleers won that game by seven points as a four-point home favorite. I've yet to see anything indicating that South Dakota is worthy of the 'favorite' tag here. Yes, South Dakota has faced the more difficult schedule this season but it has also gone a woeful 2-7 ATS in lined contests. Note that Coastal Carolina is getting off five more field goal attempts per game, and has made good on all five, averaging 29 made field goals per contest compared to South Dakota's 24. CCU has also held opponents to just 24 made field goals per game, that's three fewer than South Dakota has given up, despite CCU yielding three more FG attempts per contest. South Dakota does have a slight edge in terms of three-point shooting, but CCU has defended the perimeter reasonably well, allowing just eight makes on 25 attempts per game (South Dakota allows the same number of made threes on two fewer attempts). Take Coastal Carolina (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Morocco v. France -175 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on France over Morocco at 2 pm et on Wednesday. While other squads have been flashier and grabbed more headlines in this tournament, France has simply gone about its business, advancing to the semi-final round thanks to a victory over England that some will call 'fortunate' with the Three Lions carrying the play for much of the second half. I like the make-up of this French squad as it prepares to face upstart Morocco on Wednesday, and am confident Les Bleus will move on to face Argentina in what would set up as a World Cup Final thriller. Credit Morocco for reaching this stage. We've backed them on more than one occasion but see this as the right time to jump ship. Despite missing a couple of key contributors, the Moroccans came up with an inspired performance against Portugal in the quarters. Here, I do think its lack of punch in the front half costs it against a French side that is sure to capitalize on its opportunities. While I like the make-up of Morocco's back-line, I think it has been punching a little over its head in this tournament to this point and runs the risk of getting exposed by France here. Take France (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Sharks | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is in Arizona +1.5 goals over San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Coyotes and as an added bonus, we're able to grab an insurance goal to increase our chances of winning considerably. The Coyotes are coming off consecutive wins, including a 5-4 victory over the Flyers last time out and that's notable as they've gone 5-2 when playing on the road after scoring five goals or more in their previous contest over the last two seasons, averaging an impressive 5.3 goals and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sharks are a woeful 8-23 when following up a division win over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. Worse still, San Jose is 0-7 when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 goals in that situation. The 'Yotes have played the Sharks tough going back to the start of last season, taking two of three games when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line while skating to an even 14-14 scoreline. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Celtics -3.5 v. Lakers | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Celtics here after they suffered their second straight loss (only their second losing streak of the season) on this same floor against the Clippers last night. Note that Boston scored only 93 points in that defeat, putting it in an excellent situation here given it has gone 11-2 ATS after scoring 95 points or less in its previous contest over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points on average in that spot. The Celtics are also 13-4 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 12.6 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Lakers are off a win and cover in Detroit at the tail-end of a long road trip and are just 16-29 ATS off an ATS victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 3.9 points on average along the way. Worse still, they're 31-47 ATS as an underdog over that stretch, outscored by an average margin of 7.4 points in those contests. Take Boston (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Capitals v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Chicago at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take the contrarian route here as the Blackhawks enter Wednesday's game off three consecutive 'under' results, scoring a grand total of just one goal along the way. Enter the Capitals, who have allowed 3.2 goals per game on the road this season and are in a prime letdown spot with the 'over' having gone 9-1 when coming off consecutive wins by two goals or more over the last two seasons, allowing 4.0 goals per game and resulting in an average total of 7.7 goals in that situation. Likewise, the 'over' is 20-9 with the Blackhawks coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 7.0 goals in that spot. Last year's two matchups between these non-conference foes resulted in seven and nine total goals. Take the over (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Memphis +7 v. Alabama | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Alabama at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as is being indicated by the pointspread. Alabama has faced the 20th toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom but Memphis isn't far behind at 40th. The Tigers have been ultra-efficient offensively, knocking down one more field goal per game compared to Alabama despite attempting four fewer shots per contest. While 'Bama has made good on four more three-pointers per game, that's only because it has gotten off 13 more attempts compared to Memphis. Defensively, I have the two teams as a virtual wash with the Crimson Tide in slightly poorer form having allowed their last four opponents to make good on 26, 38, 26 and 25 field goals. We can anticipate a high-scoring environment here with neither side looking to slow the pace of the opposition in recent games. Given that, I expect the Tigers offensive prowess to keep them in the game from start to finish as they look to upset the revenge-minded Crimson Tide (Memphis took last year's matchup 92-78). Take Memphis (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Suns -5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is undoubtedly a game the Suns have had circled since dropping an embarrassing 122-121 decision at home against the Rockets on December 2nd. That loss seemed to send Phoenix into a bit of a tailspin as it enters Tuesday's contest on a four-game losing streak. I expect the Suns to bounce back in a big way here, even without Devin Booker in the lineup. Note that Phoenix is 14-4 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.0 points on average in that spot. The Suns are an identical 14-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponents as a favorite of seven points or more over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 13.4 points on average in that situation. Perhaps better still, they're 9-1 ATS when following up a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 19.9 points on average along the way. As for the Rockets, they're 9-21 as a home underdog of six points or less over the last three seasons, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that spot and 8-20 ATS after giving up 105 points or less in their last game over the same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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12-13-22 | Golden Knights v. Jets -124 | 6-5 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg over Vegas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this spot sets up for the Jets as they look to bounce back from Sunday's 5-2 home loss to the Capitals. Here, we'll note that Winnipeg is a perfect 7-0 when coming off a home loss by three goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by a whopping average margin of 2.5 goals in that situation. Perhaps better still, the Jets are 9-1 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they scored a single goal over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 2.4 goals on average in that spot. That situation is in play after Winnipeg dropped a 2-1 decision in Las Vegas back on October 30th - its second defeat at the hands of the Golden Knights in as many meetings this season (both previous matchups were in Las Vegas). Take Winnipeg (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Green Bay v. St. Thomas -12 | 61-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Thomas minus the points over Green Bay at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I think we have a blowout on our hands in this one as St. Thomas catches Green Bay coming off an outright upset as a 6.5-point underdog against UMKC last time out. While Green Bay has struggled to eclipse 23 made field goals on most nights (that's its high-water mark in that department this season), St. Thomas has been ultra-efficient at the offensive end of the floor. St. Thomas averages seven more made field goals per game compared to Green Bay on just six more attempts. It has also been considerably sharper defensively, yielding two fewer made field goals despite the opposition getting off three additional attempts per contest compared to Green Bay. There's no real discrepancy here in terms of strength of schedule as KenPom rates Green Bay as having faced the 229th toughest schedule in the country with St. Thomas checking in at 223rd. Take St. Thomas (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. While last season's three meetings between these two teams included two 'under' results, this is actually a surprisingly strong 'over' spot on Tuesday night in Beantown. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-8 with the Isles coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.4 goals. Likewise, the 'over' is 17-9 with New York coming off four or five losses in its last six games, as is the case here, over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 6.3 goals. Even better still, the 'over' is 8-1 in the Isles last nine games off a home loss, good for an average total of 7.6 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Bruins have had a tendency to let down their guard off big road wins, with the 'over' going 21-9 in their last 30 games following a road victory by two goals or more, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals. The 'over' is also 18-8 in Boston's last 26 contests after holding its last opponent to one goal or less, resulting in an average total of 6.5 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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12-13-22 | Kings -104 v. Sabres | 0-6 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings have had an up and down road trip, splitting their first four games entering Tuesday's clash with the Sabres in Buffalo. Knowing that they'll be facing arguably the league's best team in Boston on Thursday, they'll want to the make the most of the opportunity in front of them against the slumping Sabres on Tuesday night. Buffalo has dropped consecutive games, managing to score just four goals in those two contests after exploding for nine goals in a game in Columbus last week. The Kings have certainly put the clamps on the Sabres recently, allowing just two goals in winning both meetings last season. Here, we'll note that Los Angeles is 9-4 when coming off a one-goal loss on the road over the last two seasons and 27-15 when following up a game in which it allowed four goals or more over the same stretch. While Buffalo has played an exciting brand of hockey this season, it only has six wins in 16 home games to show for it. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Stonehill +13 v. Boston College | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stonehill plus the points over Boston College at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We'll take a flyer on Stonehill on Tuesday as it looks to make life miserable for the already-cantankerous Boston College Eagles, a team that has lost four consecutive games. Despite the two teams facing a similar strength of schedule to this point this season (Boston College ranks 165th and Stonehill checks in 178th according to KenPom), we've seen them post similar numbers at both ends of the floor. Stonehill has actually knocked down one more field goal per game on two fewer attempts, while allowing three additional made fields goals per contest, but on five extra attempts. Stonehill is getting off four more three-point attempts per game compared to Boston College, and impressively knocking down all four of those extra shot attempts from beyond the arc. While B.C. will obviously be desperate to end its slide, Stonehill should come to play as well off a double-digit loss as a four-point underdog against Rider last time out. I'll grab all the points I can get with a team that has proven it can go on the road and win outright in an underdog role, having done so at Army and at Binghamton (I realize beating an ACC team on the road is a different story but here we're catching a generous helping of points). Take Stonehill (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Croatia v. Argentina OVER 2 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Croatia and Argentina at 2 pm et on Tuesday. NOTE: I'm recommending laying the -150 or so to get the first half total at 0.5 goals in this contest. Not an overly difficult choice to pay the tariff to go 'over' the 0.5-goal first half total in Tuesday's much-anticipated showdown between Croatia and Argentina. The latter enters this contest playing some truly inspired football ever since that stunning tournament-opening loss to Saudi Arabia. Argentina has made its money putting the opposition on its back foot early more often than not, scoring first in nine consecutive matches across all competitions. It has led 1-0 or better at the half in seven of its last nine contests overall. Croatia won't go away quietly though, we know that after it rallied for an incredible victory over tournament favorite Brazil in the quarter-final round last Friday. The Croatians have managed to find the back of the net in three consecutive matches against Argentina, including a 3-0 victory in Group Stage play at the 2018 World Cup. If there's a weakness on Argentina its at the back line where Molina, Romero and Tagliafico in particular have been less than impressive. Keeper Emiliano doesn't rate out particularly well either, despite his penalty heroics against the Netherlands last Friday. Take the first half over (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Longwood -8 v. St Francis NY | 63-57 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Longwood minus the points over St. Francis-NY at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I'll bite with Longwood as a road favorite here, noting that it has faced the tougher schedule (marginally according to KenPom) and rates out considerably stronger at both ends of the floor despite the near indentical records the two teams have posted this season. Longwood handled St. Francis-NY by nine points the last time these two teams met back in 2019. The only reason St. Francis was remotely competitive in that game was because it shot just shy of 51% from the field. Here, we'll note that Longwood is averaging six more made field goals per game on only two additional attempts compared to St. Francis this season. At the other end of the floor, Longwood is allowing one less made field goal despite yielding one additional shot attempt per contest. Longwood has also made the most of its opportunities from three-point range, getting off two more shots per game from beyond the arc compared to St. Francis, making good on both of those attempts. Look for Longwood to pull away for the convincing win this afternoon. Take Longwood (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Wolves v. Blazers UNDER 232.5 | Top | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams combined to score 242 points in the front half of this two-game set in Portland on Saturday. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring result, however, with both teams getting off just 83 field goal attempts. Both the Wolves and Blazers shot the lights out in that contest but I expect to see some adjustments made and better defense played in Monday's rematch. Keep in mind, these two teams met four times last season and we didn't see the 'over' hit in consecutive meetings on any occasion. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-10 with the Wolves coming off a loss by six points or less over the last three seasons and has cashed three out of four times it has followed four consecutive games shooting 47% or better from the field over the same stretch. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 17-10 with the Blazers playing at home with a total of 230 points or higher over the last three seasons and 5-1 when coming off a win by six points or less this season. We've seen Portland post consecutive 'over' results on only three previous occasions this season and all three times its next contest stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-12-22 | Wolves +4.5 v. Blazers | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I like the T'Wolves to get some quick revenge against the Blazers on Monday after dropping Saturday's matchup on this floor by a 124-118 score. There's no reason for Minnesota to hang its head as it shot exceptionally well from the field in that contest but quite simply lost the free throw shooting competition (Portland knocked down 25 of 28 FT attempts). The T'Wolves have still held three of their last five opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, which is more than we can say for the Blazers, who have been lit up for 40+ made field goals in 13 of their last 14 contests. Saturday's loss could be chalked up as an anomaly for the T'Wolves as they enter Monday's game an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games against Northwest Division foes, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.3 points along the way. Here, we'll note that Minnesota is 3-1 ATS the previous four times it has sought revenge for an in-season loss against an opponent this season while Portland is 0-3 ATS after shooting 47% or better from the field in four consecutive games, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Creighton v. Arizona State OVER 139.5 | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Creighton and Arizona State at 9 pm et on Monday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring slugfest last year as Arizona State pulled off a stunner by a score of 58-57. I expect nothing of the sort in terms of pace here, noting that the high-flying Blue Jays were limited to only 54 field goal attempts in that defeat last year. Their low-water mark in that department this season is 53 but that came in a game where they scored 90 points in a win over Arkansas. I think the question here is whether the Sun Devils can get theirs offensively and I'm confident they can given the way Creighton's opponents have been stuffing the boxscore. The Blue Jays check in having yielded 30 or more made field goals in four of their last five games. Creighton is certainly in line for some positive regression offensively here. After knocking down 31+ field goals in four of its first six games this season it has been held to 27 or fewer made field goals in four straight contests. While Arizona State has been locked in defensively, I think it's in for a 'shock to the system' here against Creighton's shooting barrage. Take the over (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Creighton -3.5 v. Arizona State | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Arizona State at 9 pm et on Monday. Creighton already had plenty of reason to circle this game on its schedule after Arizona State stunned the Blue Jays 58-57 as a seven-point underdog in last year's matchup between the two teams. Here, we find the Blue Jays riding an unexpected four-game losing streak while the Sun Devils have exceeded expectations by winning nine of their first 10 games. It all leads to a convincing Creighton victory in my opinion. The Sun Devils aren't likely to contain the Blue Jays offense the way they did in last year's matchup, limiting Creighton to just 54 field goal attempts in that previous meeting. Creighton is shooting an average of 29-for-62 this season and should provide Arizona State with a 'shock to its system' after the Sun Devils were favored by five points or more in four of their last five games. Here, we'll note that the Blue Jays are an impressive 47-28 ATS in their last 75 games following consecutive losses, outscoring opponents by 5.7 points on average in that situation. Take Creighton (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Predators +102 v. Blues | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville over St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams enter this game on the heels of consecutive losses although the Blues did manage to register a point in yesterday's overtime loss to the Avalanche. That was of little consolation as St. Louis coughed up a late 2-1 lead in that contest, another in a long line of disappointing results for the Blues this season. For the Predators, they'll be eager to erase the memory of a 3-2 home loss to the Senators on Saturday. With little separating these two teams up front or on the blue line, the difference could be between the pipes. While Nashville has gotten solid work from its goaltending tandem of Juuse Saros and Kevin Lankinen, the Blues are in dire straights with both Jordan Binnington and Thomas Greiss struggling. I simply feel the Predators have more upside at this stage of the season and the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored here. Take Nashville (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Heat -2.5 v. Pacers | 87-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Heat now dropped the cash in four straight games entering Monday's clash with the similarly-slumping Pacers in Indiana. Notably, Miami has lost three of its last four games and it has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS when in that situation on the road over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.3 points. While Miami has held five of its last six opponents to 87 field goal attempts or fewer, Indiana has had no such luck, or interest, in controlling the pace of its opponents, yielding 93+ FG attempts in three of its last four and six of its last nine contests overall. Off an embarrassing home loss as a double-digit favorite against the Spurs on Saturday, we'll call for the revenge-minded Heat (they lost by two points here in Indiana back in early November) to bounce back in a big way here. Take Miami (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Yale -5.5 v. Fairfield | 77-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale minus the points over Fairfield at 7 pm et on Monday. On the heels of its first losing streak this season, Yale will undoubtedly be locked in on its MAAC opponent tonight. There's no shame in the Bulldogs last two losses as they came against Butler and Kentucky, both on the road, and they managed to split those contests from an ATS perspective. Here, they'll face Fairfield riding its first winning streak of the season (two games). Despite facing the tougher schedule (according to KenPom), Yale has made good on nine more field goals (on eight more attempts) per game compared to Fairfield while also limiting opponents to three fewer made field goals (on just one more attempt) per contest this season. The Bulldogs are yielding the same number of made three-pointers (six) per game on two additional attempts. Fairfield has managed to stay competitive largely due to its ability to get to the free throw line (21 attempts per game), however Yale has limited its opponents to just 15 trips to the charity stripe per contest. Off consecutive losses, I think we see a disciplined performance from the Bulldogs here as they stretch out the margin for a comfortable victory. Take Yale (8*). |
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12-11-22 | Browns v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think we see a 'slingshot effect' from the Browns offense here in QB Deshaun Watson's second game back under center following a nearly two-year absence from game action. Watson didn't look good against an awful Texans defense last week, but Cleveland still found a way to manufacture 27 points and I do think that bodes well going forward. This is a game where the Browns likely find themselves playing from behind in which case we should see them open the playbook far more than they did last week against Houston. The Bengals offense figures to smash in this spot as they catch an already struggling Browns defense without key run-stopping LB Sione Takitaki. All indications are that RB Joe Mixon will be back on the field and of course Ja'Marr Chase is back healthy as well, ready to go off on a vulnerable Browns secondary. While division games often lead to tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affairs, that hasn't been the case in this particular matchup, at least not in Cincinnati, where the last four meetings have produced 57, 71, 56 and 55 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-22 | Eagles -6.5 v. Giants | 48-22 | Win | 100 | 72 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Giants plus the points last week against the Commanders but it certainly wasn't easy as they coughed up a late 20-13 lead and ultimately settled for a 20-20 tie. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade New York as it stays home to host the juggernaut Philadelphia Eagles. This is another smash spot for Eagles QB Jalen Hurts as he continues his march to an MVP trophy. The difference this week compared to last Sunday against Tennessee is that Philadelphia should also be able to run the football at will on a G-Men defense that has acted as little more than a swinging-gate against opposing ground games this season. With Philadelphia having shored up its own run defense in recent weeks, it should have little trouble keeping a regressing Giants offense at bay on Sunday afternoon. New York had a few good moments in last week's tie against Washington, but ultimately struggled to put the game away and could do virtually nothing with its overtime drives. Whether RB Saquon Barkley is wearing down or if it's just poor run-blocking on the part of the Giants o-line, there's no question he has regressed considerably. Still technically not out of the woods atop the NFC East, look for the Eagles to lay the hammer down here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 52 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 34 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. With Minnesota coming off consecutive 'over' results and Detroit fresh off a high-scoring result of its own last week at home against the Jaguars, I feel this total will prove too high as these two NFC North opponents square off on Sunday afternoon in the Motor City. The Vikings offense really has nowhere to go but down after scoring 60 points combined in consecutive home wins over the Patriots and Jets over the last two weeks. While Detroit's defense was down-trodden earlier in the campaign, this is a unit that has improved as the season has gone on, allowing just 60 points over its last three games combined. Meanwhile, Minnesota has yielded more than 26 points only twice this season with those two poor performances coming in consecutive weeks against the Bills and Cowboys back in November. The Vikes 'D' should be brimming with confidence after saving last week's victory over the Jets with a goal-line stand in the waning seconds. We'll certainly look to fade the Lions offense here after it put up 40 or more points for the second time this season in last week's win over the Jags. The last time Detroit scored 40+ points it followed it up by getting shut out in New England the very next week. While another shutout certainly isn't likely here, I do think both defenses come up with enough stops to keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-30-22 | Pittsburgh v. UCLA -7.5 | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
12-30-22 | Maryland v. NC State | 16-12 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
12-30-22 | North Carolina -5.5 v. Pittsburgh | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
12-29-22 | Washington v. Texas OVER 67 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 10 m | Show |
12-29-22 | St. Thomas v. South Dakota +1.5 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
12-29-22 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -2 | 50-46 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
12-29-22 | Clippers v. Celtics -6 | 110-116 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
12-29-22 | Red Wings v. Sabres -155 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
12-29-22 | Senators v. Capitals -165 | 4-3 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
12-29-22 | Rangers v. Lightning -128 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
12-29-22 | Providence v. Butler -1.5 | 72-52 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9 | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 54 m | Show | |
12-29-22 | Minnesota v. Syracuse UNDER 42.5 | 28-20 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
12-28-22 | Ole Miss v. Texas Tech OVER 71.5 | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
12-28-22 | Duquesne v. Dayton OVER 131 | 57-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
12-27-22 | Hornets +4.5 v. Warriors | 105-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
12-27-22 | Knicks +5.5 v. Mavs | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
12-27-22 | Jacksonville v. Notre Dame OVER 129 | Top | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
12-27-22 | Utah State v. Memphis -7.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
12-26-22 | Wolves +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
12-25-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 223.5 | 118-139 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
12-24-22 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. San Diego State | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 47.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 39 m | Show |
12-24-22 | Commanders v. 49ers OVER 37.5 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
12-24-22 | Falcons v. Ravens OVER 34.5 | 9-17 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat UNDER 224 | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
12-23-22 | Jets v. Capitals OVER 6 | 1-4 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
12-23-22 | Houston -7 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Jaguars v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Air Force v. Baylor UNDER 43 | 30-15 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
12-22-22 | Islanders +1.5 v. Rangers | 3-5 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
12-21-22 | Bellarmine v. Evansville OVER 127.5 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
12-21-22 | Bucks v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
12-20-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 233.5 | 91-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
12-20-22 | Toledo v. Liberty +4 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
12-20-22 | Toledo v. Liberty OVER 52.5 | 21-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
12-20-22 | Jacksonville -6.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
12-19-22 | Weber State v. Utah State -15.5 | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
12-19-22 | Rams v. Packers -7 | Top | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
12-19-22 | Magic v. Hawks -7 | 125-126 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
12-19-22 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Capitals | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
12-19-22 | Connecticut v. Marshall OVER 40.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
12-18-22 | Giants v. Commanders OVER 40.5 | 20-12 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
12-18-22 | Nets v. Pistons +7.5 | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
12-18-22 | Titans v. Chargers OVER 46.5 | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
12-18-22 | Quinnipiac -3.5 v. St. Peter's | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
12-18-22 | Belmont v. Chattanooga -5 | 83-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
12-18-22 | Chiefs -14 v. Texans | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
12-18-22 | Eagles v. Bears UNDER 48.5 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
12-18-22 | France v. Argentina | 2-2 | Push | 0 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
12-17-22 | Islanders v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 43 | Top | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Grizzlies v. Thunder +9 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
12-17-22 | Ravens v. Browns -3 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
12-17-22 | Grambling State +18 v. Virginia Tech | 48-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
12-17-22 | Miami-OH v. Bellarmine -6.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
12-17-22 | Fresno State v. Washington State +4.5 | 29-6 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
12-17-22 | Sam Houston State -3.5 v. Texas State | 69-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
12-17-22 | Florida v. Oregon State UNDER 53 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
12-17-22 | Tenn-Martin +6 v. Bowling Green | 75-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
12-17-22 | Providence v. Seton Hall -2.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
12-17-22 | Morocco v. Croatia OVER 2.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 48 h 34 m | Show | |
12-16-22 | Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 228.5 | 114-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
12-16-22 | Austin Peay v. Murray State -6.5 | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
12-16-22 | Nets v. Raptors UNDER 227 | 119-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
12-16-22 | Hawks v. Hornets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
12-16-22 | Miami-OH v. UAB OVER 45 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
12-15-22 | Cal-Irvine +2 v. Santa Clara | 74-86 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
12-15-22 | Pelicans -1 v. Jazz | 129-132 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
12-15-22 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
12-15-22 | Maple Leafs v. Rangers +110 | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
12-14-22 | Bowling Green v. Norfolk State -4.5 | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
12-14-22 | Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 226.5 | 128-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
12-14-22 | Stetson +15 v. College of Charleston | 60-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
12-14-22 | Queens NC +3.5 v. East Tennessee State | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
12-14-22 | Coastal Carolina +4.5 v. South Dakota | 87-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
12-14-22 | Morocco v. France -175 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
12-13-22 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Sharks | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
12-13-22 | Celtics -3.5 v. Lakers | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
12-13-22 | Capitals v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
12-13-22 | Memphis +7 v. Alabama | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
12-13-22 | Suns -5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
12-13-22 | Golden Knights v. Jets -124 | 6-5 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
12-13-22 | Green Bay v. St. Thomas -12 | 61-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
12-13-22 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
12-13-22 | Kings -104 v. Sabres | 0-6 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
12-13-22 | Stonehill +13 v. Boston College | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
12-13-22 | Croatia v. Argentina OVER 2 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
12-13-22 | Longwood -8 v. St Francis NY | 63-57 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
12-12-22 | Wolves v. Blazers UNDER 232.5 | Top | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
12-12-22 | Wolves +4.5 v. Blazers | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
12-12-22 | Creighton v. Arizona State OVER 139.5 | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
12-12-22 | Creighton -3.5 v. Arizona State | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
12-12-22 | Predators +102 v. Blues | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
12-12-22 | Heat -2.5 v. Pacers | 87-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
12-12-22 | Yale -5.5 v. Fairfield | 77-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
12-11-22 | Browns v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
12-11-22 | Eagles -6.5 v. Giants | 48-22 | Win | 100 | 72 h 9 m | Show | |
12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 52 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 34 m | Show |