Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 56 m | Show |
NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Colts overtime loss to the Titans on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they stay home to host the upstart Jets on a short week on Thursday night. Mike White-mania has taken hold in New York after the QB led the Jets to a stunning 34-31 win over the Bengals on Sunday. Let's not get too carried away though. The Jets caught the Bengals in an obvious letdown spot off a monster blowout win over the rival Ravens the previous week. Cincinnati's defense might have got caught reading a little too much of their own press leading into that one and certainly appeared to overlook White's ability to move the Jets offense and put points on the board. Don't expect the Colts to fall into the same trap here. Indianapolis has to feel that the AFC South is still up for grabs, especially with the new that Titans RB Derrick Henry will miss 6-10 weeks with a foot injury. With that being said, Frank Reich probably doesn't want his QB Carson Wentz throwing the football 50+ times again like he did on Sunday against the Titans. We saw that the Jets defense can be opportunistic against the Bengals. Credit New York for limiting Cincinnati to just north of 300 total yards in that game. The majority of the Bengals offense in that game came thanks to turnovers from the Jets offense. Knowing that, I'm confident predicting a more conservative gameplan from Robert Saleh's Jets offense here. The Colts come in having scored 30+ points in three straight games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'under' is a long-term winner at 60-40 with the Colts playing at home off a loss, resulting in an average total of just 42.6 points. The 'under' is also 48-30 with the Jets playing on the road after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here, good for an average total of just 37.6 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. This is an ideal spot to fade the 'fat and happy' 76ers as they come off four straight wins, all at home. Philadelphia has had to deal with some key absences lately with Tobias Harris missing time due to Covid protocols and Joel Embiid dealing with a nagging knee injury. Of course, there's no guarantee Embiid plays tonight in a back-to-back spot but we'll make this play on the assumption he is able to go. The Pistons have lost back-to-back games in blowout fashion. Those came in tough spots at Brooklyn and at home against the Bucks. Here, they're home and waiting for the Sixers, noting the last time these two teams squared off at Little Caesar's Arena last January it was no contest as Detroit rolled to a 119-104 victory as a 4.5-point underdog. Here, we're getting an even more favorable number. Look for the Pistons to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Detroit (10*). |
|||||||
11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 209 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Off yet another relatively low-scoring game last night the 76ers have now seen each of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for that streak to come to an end in Motown on Thursday. Despite that 'under' streak, the 76ers offense has performed well, scoring at least 109 points in six of eight games to date this season. Tonight's opponent, Detroit, is certainly not defensive powerhouse, having allowed four of its last five opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. In fact, over their last two games, the Pistons have allowed the Nets and Bucks to shoot a blazing 89-for-156 (57.1%). Given their defense looks broken, the Pistons will need to step up offensively in order to stay competitive in this one and I'm confident they can do just that, noting that arguably a weaker offensive squad managed to put up 110 and 119 points in two home meetings with the 76ers last season. Having shot worse than 41% from the field in six of seven games so far this season, it's only a matter of time before some more of Detroit's shots start falling. The Pistons might be catching the 76ers in the right place at the right time as Philadelphia is 'fat and happy' off four straight victories, all coming at home, and has allowed five of its last seven opponents to shoot 46.3% or better from the field. Keep an eye on the status of Joel Embiid for the Sixers as he's been known to rest on the back half of back-to-backs, allowing recovery time for an ailing knee. If he doesn't go that should only serve to give us an even better number to work with. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
11-04-21 | Golden Knights v. Senators UNDER 6 | Top | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Senators most recent game - a 5-4 overtime loss in Minnesota on Tuesday. In fact, we also won in their previous game, fading them against the Blackhawks in Monday's 5-1 loss. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Sens return home to host the Golden Knights. Vegas is coming off a 4-0 loss in Toronto on Tuesday (we cashed a free play on the 'under' in that game). Scoring goals with any sort of consistency has been an issue for the Golden Knights this season, largely due to injuries to three of their top offensive threats in Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty and most recently William Karlsson. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-4 with the Golden Knights playing on the road off a game in which they allowed four goals or more going back to last season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.4 goals. The 'under' is also 17-8 with the Knights playing on the road off a loss over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 5.1 goals. On the flip side, the Senators have seen the 'under' go 10-1 the last 11 times they've played at home after losing four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, with an average total of only 4.7 goals scored in that situation. Reeling off back-to-back losses in which they gave up nine goals in regulation time, I do expect Ottawa to tighten things up here. On the flip side, you would have to go back five meetings to find the lat time the Sens scored more than three goals in a game against Vegas. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-04-21 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Lightning in their most recent game - a 3-2 victory over the Capitals on Monday. We also won with the 'under' in the Leafs 4-0 shutout victory over the Golden Knights on Tuesday. Here, I'll back the 'under' again as Toronto continues its homestand against the surging Lightning on Thursday. Tampa Bay has won three games in a row, scoring 13 goals in the process. I still feel the Lightning are somewhat depleted offensively this season and the numbers bear it out as they've been held to three runs or less in six of nine games so far this season. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 the last 11 times the Lightning have played on the road off a home win, with that situation producing just 4.7 total goals on average. The Leafs have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games and here we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-1 in their last 11 home games off a home win by two goals or more over the last season-plus, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals. The 'under' is also 12-3 with the Leafs playing at home after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 5.7 goals. Of course, these two teams haven't met since before the pandemic in early March 2020. That last meeting took place here in Toronto and totaled just three goals in a 2-1 Leafs victory. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
11-04-21 | Flyers v. Penguins -139 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. PLEASE NOTE: We'll downgrade this play with the news that Sidney Crosby will be sidelined due to testing positive for Covid. I'm still on the Penguins in this spot but as a 6* play. We missed with the Penguins in their most recent game as they fell by a 4-2 score in a late collapse against the Devils on home ice. That was of course Sidney Crosby's much-awaited season debut for the Pens. While it didn't go as they had hoped, I do expect them to bounce back against the rival Flyers on Thursday night. Note that Pittsburgh is in an excellent situation here having gone 17-3 the last 20 times it has played at home after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 goals on average in that spot. The Flyers are fresh off a 3-0 home victory over the still-winless Coyotes on Tuesday. Note that Philadelphia is a woeful 9-19 the last 28 times it has come off a win, outscored by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. Having won here in Pittsburgh by a 2-1 score last April, the Flyers will be looking to notch a second straight win at PPG Paints Arena. They haven't accomplished that feat since winning here in December 2018 and March 2019. I expect the Pens to avoid the same fate here. Take Pittsburgh (6*). |
|||||||
11-03-21 | Blues v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. When we last saw these two teams square off they combined to score just three goals with the Blues contributing all of the offense in a 3-0 shutout win. Keep in mind, that was in the back half of a two-game set in St. Louis. Here, I look for the Kings to put up more of a fight and expect a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the Blues are coming off a 1-0 win over the Blackhawks on Saturday. That actually sets us up well for an 'over' result here, noting that the 'over' has gone 23-11 when the Blues come off a game that totaled four goals or less over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals. Better still, the 'over' is 8-1 over that same stretch when St. Louis comes off a game that totaled three goals or less, leading to an average total of 8.0 goals. The Blues have averaged 3.6 goals when coming off a one-goal victory over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here but they've also allowed 3.0 goals on average after winning four or five of their last six games going back to last season. While the Kings have been fairly inconsistent offensively, they haven't been as prone to scoring droughts as they were last season - at least not so far this season - checking in averaging 2.7 goals per game overall with that average jumping to 3.6 goals here at Staples Center. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-03-21 | Hurricanes v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | 4-3 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Blackhawks in their 5-1 victory on Monday night. That came against the lowly Senators in a game where they were provided a big emotional lift with the return of Patrick Kane, who came up big with a hat trick. They should find the going a little tougher in a quick rematch against the Canes, who defeated them by a 6-3 score in Carolina last Friday (we won with the 'over' in that game). Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Blackhawks have played at home after scoring five goals or more in their previous game, with an average total of just 4.0 goals scored in that spot. The Canes are rolling right now, off to a perfect 8-0 start to the season. Here, they'll be heading on the road following a four-game homestand. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone 8-1 the last nine times that situation has come up going back to last season, resulting in an average total of only 4.6 goals. I don't see this contest playing out like last Friday's wild, high-scoring affair that saw both teams start their 'backup' goaltenders (Antti Raanta for the Canes and Kevin Lankinen for the Blackhawks). We're likely to see Frederik Andersen (.956 save percentage in seven games this season) and Marc-Andre Fleury (who has allowed just two goals on 67 shots over his last two games) on Wednesday night. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
11-03-21 | Blazers -157 v. Cavs | 104-107 | Loss | -157 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland moneyline over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. There's a chance the Cavaliers might actually be good this season. Since starting the campaign 0-2 they've won four of their last six games SU and five of those ATS. Here, they're back home 'fat and happy' off a 3-2 road trip that took them to a lot of tough venues. I don't like the setup for Cleveland in this spot, however, as it hosts a Blazers team that will be looking to salvage a win on their own three-game road trip. Portland clearly got caught overlooking an Embiid and Harris-less 76ers squad on Monday, its second straight outright loss as a favorite to open the trip. A win here still gets the Blazers back to the .500 mark before returning home for a quick two-game set against the Pacers and Lakers. Here, we'll note that the Blazers have proven to be a solid bounce-back team off a bad loss, going 16-7 SU the last 23 times they have played on the road off a double-digit loss as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Cavs are a tired team playing on just one day of rest off a five-game road trip and have gone a miserable 7-32 SU the last 39 times they've played their sixth (or more) game in the last 10 days, as is the case here. We certainly saw signs of a tired team in Monday's game in Charlotte as the Cavs put up 40 points in the first quarter but then failed to top 25 points in any of the final three quarters. Having shot 43.3% or worse from the field in five of their last six games and not exactly known as an elite defensive team, even though the Cavs have enjoyed plenty of success lately they have a pretty thin margin for error in my opinion. They caught the Hornets in a favorable spot on Monday and Charlotte shot 41.2% from the field but still managed to take Cleveland right down to the wire in an eventual 113-110 Cavs victory. The Blazers on the other hand aren't shooting all that poorly (44.3% and 47.6% in their last two games) but there's a lot of room for improvement defensively after allowing the Hornets and 76ers to both shoot better than 51% from the field to open this trip. This is a fine 'get right' spot for Portland given that it disposed of Cleveland by 19 and 36 points in last year's two meetings. The Cavs are certainly a better team this season but I'm not sure their recent success is sustainable. Rather than lay the points with the Blazers here, we'll back them on the moneyline as the reasonable price warrants such a play. Take Portland moneyline (6*). |
|||||||
11-03-21 | Raptors v. Wizards -3 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We successfully faded the Wizards in their last game as they fell by seven points in Atlanta. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Wiz as they return home to host a Raptors squad they had their way with earlier this season. Toronto is coming off a huge win in New York on Monday, fueled by a career night from O.G. Anunoby. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Note that while the Raps have now won four games in a row, here they find themselves in a spot that has seen them go a miserable 1-9 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Washington is an excellent positive momentum play as it has posted an incredible 15-1 ATS record after winning three of its last four games over the last season-plus, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average in that spot. Of course, these two teams met in the season-opener with the Wizards rolling to a 98-83 victory. Washington has now taken consecutive meetings against the Raptors after an extended run of futility in the series. While the Raps have a rather thin margin of error in my opinion, the Wiz have shown the ability to win in a variety of ways. This past Saturday they prevailed in overtime against the Celtics despite shooting a woeful 36.5% in the game. Last week they beat the Hawks here at home even with Atlanta shooting a scorching 54.5% from the field. As for the Raps, they've only managed to outscore the opposition by a combined 21 points during their current four-game winning streak. They've shot better than 48% from the field just once this season and needed to knock down every shot in that game as they won by just a single point, at home no less, against the lowly Magic. Here, we'll play against Toronto supported by a situation that has gone 74-39 ATS in which we fade underdog sides coming off consecutive outright underdog wins playing for the sixth time (or more) in the last 10 days. That situation has gone 10-3 ATS over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
11-03-21 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 66.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Western Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last season as Western Michigan prevailed by a 52-44 score. Keep in mind, prior to that you would have to go back to 2015 to find the last time the two teams combined to put up more than 63 points. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair this time around as both teams enter this pivotal MAC showdown sporting identical 2-2 conference records. Western Michigan is known for its offense and while it is capable of putting up points in bunches, it has also been prone to scoring lapses this season, as noted by the fact that it has been held to 24 points or less in four of its last five games. The lone explosion over that stretch came in a 64-31 rout of a Kent State squad that doesn't play a lick of defense and operates at a break-neck pace on offense. I'm higher on the Western Michigan defense than some. This is a talented and experienced group that went into the Big House in Ann Arbor and didn't allow a touchdown against Michigan until nearly six minutes into the second quarter way back in Week 1. The Wolverines ultimately did get rolling in that game but it was evident that the Broncos weren't going to be pushovers defensively. Led by DL Ali Fayad, the Broncos defense should be able to pose plenty of problems for a less-than-stellar Central Michigan offensive line in this one. The Chippewas are coming off a 39-38 loss to Northern Illinois last time out. Combine that with their high-scoring loss to the Broncos in last year's meeting and you can understand why they wouldn't necessarily want to get involved in another shootout here. The Chippewas started the season with Washington transfer Jacob Sirmon at quarterback but he's since been replaced by Daniel Richardson. Richardson, while experienced running the offense, hasn't been all that dynamic, completing just over 58% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt. He has posted an impressive 14:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio but again, I expect him to be under duress for much of tonight's game. Look for the Chips' to make a concerted effort to churn out long drives in this one and effectively shorten the game. Note that their two previous MAC road games have totaled just 45 and 57 points. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
11-02-21 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 217 | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after these two teams were involved in exactly the opposite type of contest two nights ago (the Lakers won that game 95-85). Credit the Lakers for stepping up defensively after a rough stretch earlier in the season. We used their early high-scoring results to our advantage last Friday night as we cashed the 'under' in their victory over the Cavaliers. I'm still not sold on the Lakers being an elite defensive team, however, while on the flip side we know they have the offensive talent to go off on any given night and this is certainly a favorable matchup against the Rockets. Speaking of elite defensive teams, Houston won't be mistaken for one any time soon. They know they're going to need to score a lot more than they did on Sunday in order to take something away from this two-game set in Los Angeles. That's because they're certainly not likely to hold the Lakers to sub-41% shooting again on Tuesday. Keep in mind, just two games back Houston allowed 122 points on better than 48% shooting against the Jazz, at home no less. Here, we find the 'over' having gone 12-3 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen an average total of 223 points after consecutive home wins going back to last season (10-game sample size). Finally, I'll note that while Sunday's matchup was a bit of a slog, three meetings between these two teams last season totaled 222, 217 and 246 points (that was the lone matchup here in Los Angeles). Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-02-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Astros | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way this spot sets up for the Braves with an insurance run in our back pocket as they hand the ball to Max Fried in hopes of making good in their second attempt at clinching a World Series title. Fried didn't pitch well in his first start in this series but I'm confident that he can bounce back strong here, noting that he still owns a terrific 3.65 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the road this season and better still, a 3.49 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in nighttime starts. The Braves are a terrific 64-41 when coming off a loss going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.6 runs along the way. We haven't seen the Braves drop consecutive games since a four-game losing streak from September 14th to 18th. To find the last time they lost back-to-back games by two or more runs you would have to go all the way back to June 23rd and 24th. Atlanta wasn't quite able to break through against Astros starter Luis Garcia back in Game 3 of this series but it's not as if he was dominant. Garcia lasted only 3 2/3 innings, allowing three hits and four walks but only one earned run. While Sunday's game ended up lopsided in nature, I'm expecting tightly-contested baseball from here on out, making grabbing the insurance run attractive in Game 6. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (5*). |
|||||||
11-02-21 | Stars v. Jets -120 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Jets got caught flat-footed against the Sharks on Saturday (we won with the 'under' in that game), perhaps overlooking a San Jose squad that was missing five players due to Covid protocols. Here, I look for the Jets to bounce back as they return home to host the reeling Stars on Tuesday. Dallas is coming off three straight losses, scoring just four goals in the process. Note that the Stars are just 2-11 after scoring a goal or less in their last game going back to last season (they're coming off a 4-1 loss to Ottawa), outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. Worse still, Dallas is 0-6 the last six times it has gone on the road after playing two or more consecutive games at home, as is the case here, outscored by 2.3 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Jets are a somewhat inexplicable 9-1 in their last 10 games following an overtime loss, averaging 3.5 goals and outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals on average in that situation (they lost in overtime against the Sharks on Saturday). I'm more confident in backing them given they're coming off a one-goal loss in general, noting that they've gone 20-7 in that spot over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.3 goals along the way. The home team has taken the last four meetings in this series. You would have go to back to December of 2019 to find the last time Dallas skated to a win in Winnipeg. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
|||||||
11-02-21 | Senators v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won by fading the Senators last night as they fell by a 5-1 score in Chicago. They've been giving up goals in bunches lately, allowing a whopping 16 in their last 10 periods of hockey. With that in mind, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in Tuesday's contest as the Sens continue their road trip in Minnesota. The Wild were held to just five goals over the course of a 1-2 road trip. I look for them to bounce back offensively here at home where we've seen them score 12 goals in three games this season. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Wild have come off three consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, producing an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. The 'over' is also 16-5 the last 21 times Minnesota has played at home off consecutive road losses by two goals or more, good for an average total of 6.5 goals. As for the Sens, they've seen the 'over' cash at a 15-4 clip the last 19 times they've played on the road after losing two of their last three games, as is the case here, with an average total of 7.2 goals scored in that situation. These two teams last met in 2019. They matched up in Minnesota once in 2018 and then again in 2019 with those two games totaling 10 and 9 goals, respectively. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 53.5 | Top | 52-49 | Loss | -113 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Michigan and Toledo at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Eastern Michigan enters this game off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results, scoring a whopping 86 points along the way. The Eagles should find the going much tougher on Tuesday, however, as they face one of the MAC's best defensive teams in Toledo. The Rockets have given up more than 26 points in a game only once this season and that came against nationally-ranked Notre Dame, on the road no less, back in Week 2. Offensively, the Rockets aren't the juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing in Toledo. Their overall numbers are skewed by a couple of explosions against FCS squad Norfolk State way back in Week 1 and lowly UMass in the first week of October. The Rockets have completed 20 or more passes only twice this season - they've run the football 30+ times in six of eight games to date. They've also allowed more than 21 pass completions only once, that coming in the aforementioned game against Notre Dame. Last year's matchup between these two teams was high-scoring with Toledo winning by a 45-28 score. Keep in mind, that was a wild contest that included four turnovers by way of fumbles (and an interception as well). Of course we can't account for turnovers creating short fields here, but with a lot on the line between these two MAC squads, I'm expecting a lower-scoring game than most. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-02-21 | Red Wings v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these struggling teams are coming off high-scoring affairs but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday night in Montreal. The Red Wings fell short in Toronto on Saturday night, dropping a 5-4 loss against the Maple Leafs. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 with the Red Wings playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last season-plus resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. We've seen Detroit score four goals or more on three previous occasions this season and in all three cases, it followed that performance with an 'under' result. The Canadiens are coming off a 4-2 loss in Anaheim on Sunday. The 'under' is 9-2 with the Habs playing at home off consecutive 'over' results going back to last season, as is the case here, producing an average total of 4.5 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-02-21 | Ball State v. Akron UNDER 58.5 | 31-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ball State and Akron at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This is a big game for Ball State as it looks to bounce back from a disappointing home loss against Miami-Ohio and pick up a much-needed fourth victory of the season to keep its hopes of reaching a possible Bowl game alive. While it looks like a layup on paper, I don't expect Akron to simply roll over. The Zips are coming off a 45-10 beatdown at the hands of Buffalo, at home no less, after they had managed to split a two-game road trip, going a perfect 2-0 ATS along the way. While Akron is by no means a defensive stalwart, it's not as if teams have been bombing away against it. The Zips have allowed over 20 pass completions only twice this season. Yes, opponents have generally elected to run the ball down their throats but Ball State isn't an elite rushing team, averaging only 116 rush yards per game on 3.5 yards per rush this season with that number dropping to 3.3 ypr on the road. Of course, the Zips offense has been rather punchless as usual and this doesn't look like an ideal breakout spot against a Ball State squad that has allowed 22, 20, 31 and 24 points against much tougher opposition in conference play. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs UNDER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NFL MNF First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between New York and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is an obvious 'get right' spot for the Chiefs against a lowly Giants squad that looks ripe for the picking coming off a 25-3 win over the Panthers last week. Most are expecting the Chiefs offense to lay waste to a depleted Giants defense here but I believe another slow start from Patrick Mahomes and company could be in order. Keep in mind, the Chiefs are averaging only 8.7 points in the first half here at home this season. On the flip side, they're giving up a whopping 20.0 points on average in the first half at home - a number I certainly expect them to improve on against a Giants squad that will simply be looking to hold onto the football and effectively shorten this game given their lack of offensive weaponry due to injuries and otherwise. Note that the G-Men are averaging just shy of 7.0 points in the first half this season, topping out at 10 points through their first seven games. They reached that 10-point mark in the first half twice previously, in Dallas and Washington - more favorable matchups than the one they'll face here in my opinion. While the potential is certainly there for the Chiefs to come out and boatrace the Giants and take care of this first half total all on their own, given their inconsistency on offense I don't see it happening. Here, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 26-4 in the first half over the last 10 seasons when a team comes off an upset road loss by two touchdowns or more in the first half of the season, as is the case with the Chiefs here, resulting in an average total of just 17.8 points. That situation has gone a perfect 13-0 over the last five seasons. Take the first half under (10*). |
|||||||
11-01-21 | Senators v. Blackhawks -120 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Ottawa at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Blackhawks are still looking for their first victory nearly a month into the season and with controversy swirling around the franchise, they're in desperate need of something positive at this point. The good news is, they've been playing a little better. Chicago has been right there in two of its last three games, suffering an overtime loss at home against the Maple Leafs and a 1-0 setback in St. Louis around an ugly performance in Carolina. While this is no time for excuses, there's no denying the 'Hawks have faced an extremely tough schedule to this point. This game against the Senators gives them a good opportunity to get something going with five of their next six games coming on home ice. Ottawa is coming off a win in Dallas on Friday night. I'm not sure being idle for the entire weekend was the best thing for a Sens team that is looking to build some positive momentum having won only three out of seven games so far this season. Note that Ottawa has dropped six straight meetings against Chicago, with its last victory in this series coming way back in 2016. After scoring nine goals in their last two games and coming off an effort that saw them allow just a single goal in Dallas, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order for the Sens here. Note that they've allowed 4.0 goals have been outscored by 0.8 goals on average when playing on the road after losing two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here (19-game sample size). Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics -1 | Top | 128-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Monday. It's still very early in the season but the Celtics find themselves in the Atlantic Division basement. Needless to say, this is a big game as they look to snap a two-game skid at home against the division-rival Bulls. Note that the C's also opened the season with consecutive losses but responded with a double-digit victory in Houston (without Jaylen Brown) in their next game (we won with Boston in that game). Here, they'll face the Bulls with double-revenge after dropping their last two matchups with Chicago last season. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time they lost back-to-back meetings with the Bulls. The next time they faced them they delivered a 17-point beatdown. Here, we'll back Boston noting that it has gone 23-10 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Take Boston (10*). |
|||||||
11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics OVER 216.5 | 128-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Chicago and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Monday. It's early in the season but this is a key Atlantic Division showdown between the Bulls and Celtics. I believe the first half total will prove too low as both teams look to get off to quick starts on Monday night. Note that the Bulls have got off to plenty of fast starts offensively this season, scoring 65, 54, 61, 51 and 54 points in the first half over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Celtics had put up 53, 68 and 52 points in the first half in their last three contests before being held to only 47 points in the back half of a home-and-home set with the Wizards on Saturday. Poor starts defensively have been problematic for the C's this season as they check in giving up 56.2 points on average in the first half through their first six games. I think both teams will come into this game knowing they're going to need to put up a lot of points to secure a win. I do respect both head coaches and feel that the necessary defensive adjustments could be made at halftime, however, so we'll play the first half 'over' the total only in this one. Take the first half over (8*). |
|||||||
11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta moneyline over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While the Wizards are off to a blazing 5-1 start to the season I look for them to get tripped up by the Hawks on Monday night. Atlanta is coming off consecutive losses but both of those were on the road, including a 122-111 setback against the same Wizards it will face on Monday. Here we'll note that favorites priced between -165 and -500 revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that are coming off a 20-point loss suffered on the road, as is the case with the Hawks, have gone 26-1 SU over the last five seasons. Atlanta was never really competitive in Saturday's blowout loss in Philadelphia, perhaps the product of playing a third road game in four nights at this early stage of the season when conditioning, or lack thereof, can be an issue. This is one of those difficult one-game trips for the Wizards before they return home to play their next three games. Off a double-overtime win over the Celtics on Saturday this is a classic letdown spot. Atlanta has won four straight home meetings with Washington. To find the last Wizards victory here in Atlanta you would have to go back to December of 2018. Take Atlanta moneyline (6*). |
|||||||
11-01-21 | Capitals v. Lightning -140 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Lightning are back on track after a brief lull, coming off consecutive 5-1 thrashings of the Penguins and Coyotes. Meanwhile, the Capitals are just 2-2 over their last four games, including a loss to the lowly Red Wings. They are, however, fresh off a shutout win over the Coyotes and I think that takes away a bit of their edge entering this 'revenge' game against the Lightning. Tampa Bay skated to a 2-1 victory in Washington earlier this season. While the Caps did win the last meeting between these two teams here in Tampa, that was nearly two years ago. After a slow start, the Bolts can ill afford to give up any points right now, I like their chances of wrapping up a perfect 2-0 homestand here. Take Tampa Bay (6*). |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Astros -112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Sunday MLB Free play. My selection is on Houston over Atlanta at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. As much as Braves fans are hoping this is the night that they end their World Series drought, I believe they're going to have to wait at least one more game. While the Braves are likely to go with another bullpen game, the Astros will hand the ball to Framber Valdez as he looks to make amends for a poor performance earlier in the series. Interestingly, he's been better on the road than at home this season, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 12 away starts. In his lone previous playoff road start he allowed just one earned run over eight innings in Boston. Of course, each of the last two games in this series could have gone either way. No matter how you spin it, using six different pitchers in last night's game wasn't ideal for Atlanta. Keep in mind, the Braves used five different pitchers two nights ago as well. While the Astros have gone with an 'all hands on deck' sort of approach as well, they at least have a proven starter capable of working at least five or six innings on Sunday. Take Houston. |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Pistons v. Nets OVER 214 | 91-117 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. The Nets have seen all six of their games stay 'under' the total this season but I look for that trend to reverse on Sunday. Detroit is coming off three consecutive games scoring over 100 points despite shooting 44% or worse in all three contests. The Nets got into a bit of a slog against the struggling Pacers last time out but I believe the Pistons will be more easily baited into a high-scoring affair here. Like Detroit, Brooklyn hasn't been shooting particularly well but this looks like a fine spot to improve on their shooting percentage and pad their offensive starts noting that the Pistons have allowed two of their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, allowing 122, 110 and 103 points in the process. Note that the 'over' has gone 29-15 with the Nets coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 231 points. Also note that two of three meetings between these two teams last season reached at least 224 total points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Canadiens v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Anaheim at 4 pm et on Sunday. The Canadiens woes continued yesterday as they fell by a 5-2 score in Los Angeles. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Habs playing on the road after allowing five goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 22-11 with Montreal playing on the road following an 'over' result over the same stretch, producing an average total of 5.1 goals. As for the Ducks, they're on a streak of six consecutive 'over' results. The 'under' is a long-term winner at 104-73 with the Ducks coming off consecutive games in which seven or more total goals were scored, as is the case here. I'll also point out that Anaheim averages a miserable 1.1 goals when playing at home after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals (14-game sample size). Take the under (7*). |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Entering the season I had the Jaguars and Seahawks pegged as having two of the league's worst defenses. While both teams have trended to the 'under' through the first seven weeks of the season, that's had more to do with the inept nature of their offenses (and an injury to Russell Wilson for Seattle) than anything else. With that being said, I do see this as a potential breakout spot for both offenses. The Jags are coming off their bye week, giving them an extra week to perhaps add a couple of extra wrinkles to an offense that did show some signs of life prior to the bye. They certainly haven't been afraid to sling the ball all over the field, with rookie QB Trevor Lawrence attempting more than 30 passes in five of six games to date. The Seahawks offense has labored with journeyman QB Geno Smith at the helm but the big play potential is certainly still there with WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the field (we saw that as Metcalf had a long touchdown catch on Monday night against New Orleans). Note that when we last saw the Jags they were giving up a whopping 354 passing yards against Tua Tagovailoa and a struggling Miami offense in London. While the Jags have posted a 2-4 o/u record this season, they've actually gone 'over' the number we're dealing with on Sunday in four of six games to date. Off Monday's staggeringly low-scoring game in Seattle, I believe Sunday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Coyotes v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Carolina at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Hurricanes 6-3 rout of Chicago on Friday night. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the reeling Coyotes roll into Carolina. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 with the Canes coming off five or more consecutive games in which they scored three goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 10-3 with the Canes at home off three or more consecutive home games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals. Interestingly, Carolina has come off a game that totaled nine or more goals four times over the last season-plus and in its next contest, it has averaged a woeful 1.3 goals with an average total of only 4.1 goals scored. Arizona has been absolutely dreadful offensively but does come off a game in which it allowed only two goals in a shutout loss against the Capitals. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first matchup between these two teams fizzled as a banged-up Carson Wentz wasn't able to get anything going offensively for the Colts in a 25-16 loss in Tennessee, snapping a three-game 'over' streak in this series. Here, I expect things to go back to 'normal' in this series with a shootout in Indianapolis. The Colts offense is red hot right now and has been for a number of weeks. With that in mind, I expect offensive-minded head coach Frank Reich to orchestrate an aggressive offensive gameplan here, knowing that his team is going to need to put up plenty of points to outlast a surging Titans squad. Tennessee has come to life offensively over the last few weeks, scoring 98 points in three games - all victories. I still have my concerns when it comes to the Titans defense, however. They held the mighty Chiefs to only three points in a very strange game last Sunday but that had more to do with game script than anything else as the Titans got off to a blazing start and never looked back. Neither team has been particularly stout against the run this season with the Titans checking in having allowed north of 100 rush yards in six straight games (despite winning five of those) and the Colts having given up over 100 rushing yards in four straight and six of seven contests this season. Indy won its last two games by double-digit margins yet still gave up well over 300 yards rushing in those two contests. I point that out as both teams boast all-world running backs and it really opens everything up for the two offenses. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 10-2 the last 12 times the Titans have come off three wins in their last four games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 56.5 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Eagles -179 v. Lions | 44-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia moneyline over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think a lot of bettors are jumping on the Lions in this spot as the Eagles look ripe for the picking off consecutive losses and with just two wins to their credit this season. I believe last week was the time to back the Lions, however (I was actually on the Rams in that game), at least from a value perspective. The Lions certainly got up for last week's 'Jared Goff revenge game' against the Rams. They pulled out all the stops (onside kicks, fake punts, etc.) in an effort to stay competitive in that contest. Here, I'm not convinced they'll be so fortunate. The Eagles record leaves a lot to be desired but they've also faced a brutal schedule, at least from my perspective. Their only truly ugly loss given where all of their opponents stand came against the 49ers back in Week 2. While they enter this game off consecutive losses, those two setbacks came against the Bucs and on the road against the upstart Raiders. They actually check in a respectable 2-2 SU on the road this season with their two losses coming in Dallas and Las Vegas. There's talk of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts getting benched at this point but I think he holds onto his starting job for at least one more week given the favorable matchup here. Few teams have been worse against the pass than the Lions this season as they've allowed a league-high 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Note that favorites priced between -160 and -475 on the moneyline have gone 68-12 SU after giving up 25+ points in consecutive games over the last five seasons, as is the case with Philadelphia here. Take Philadelphia moneyline (6*). |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 216.5 | 94-122 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. We've seen this total drop, likely due in part to the questionable tag on Joel Embiid as he deals with a nagging knee injury. Regardless whether the 76ers big man plays or not, I like this one to go 'over' the total. Note that the Hawks will be playing their third road game in the last five nights. The 'over' has cashed at a 13-2 clip in that same situation over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 231.9 points scored. The 76ers are coming off a low-scoring win over the Pistons. They didn't play at a fast pace in that game but probably knew they didn't have to against a subpar Detroit offense. Here, I think we'll see the Sixers make a more concerted effort to get up and down the floor and keep pace as the Hawks are fully capable of going off offensively. Note that the 76ers have averaged 114.8 points when coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 220.1 points (45-game sample size). The last four meetings between these two teams did stay 'under' the total but that was during their seven-game playoff series last June. Two of the first three contests in that series had gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Jets v. Sharks UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and San Jose at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been involved in some high-scoring games this season. In fact, they've already matched up once, right here in San Jose back on October 16th. That game totaled seven goals. Here, I look for a different story to unfold however. Note that the Jets have averaged just 2.0 goals the last 17 times they've played on the road off four or more consecutive wins, as is the case here. The 'under' is 17-7 with the Jets playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals. The 'under' is also 17-5 with the Sharks coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, producing an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Finally, the 'under' has gone an impressive 35-18 with the Sharks coming off a game in which they gave up four or more goals over the same stretch. While the 'over' did cash in the first matchup between these teams this season, the 'under' has actually cashed in two of their last three meetings here in San Jose. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Devils v. Penguins -150 | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 29 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Penguins are coming off back-to-back losses on home ice but they're well-positioned to get back in the win column against the Devils on Saturday night. Note that Pittsburgh is an incredible 17-2 when playing at home after giving up three goals or more in in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.0 goals on average in that spot. As for the Devils, they're a woeful 2-14 the last 16 times they've come off a game in which they gave up five goals or more, outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Until the Devils get goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood and former first overall draft pick Jack Hughes back from injury, I'm considering them a play-against team. With the Penguins having taken eight of the last 11 meetings in this series including four of the last five in Pittsburgh, I'm comfortable laying the chalk with them here. Take Pittsburgh (6*). |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson OVER 47 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida State and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game between two teams that have largely been disappointments this season. Florida State has at least turned things around lately, reeling off three straight wins while scoring 33, 35 and 59 points. With that in mind, I think Clemson knows it will have to step up its offensive game and come out with an aggressive mindset on Saturday. The Tigers have certainly been bogged down, held to fewer than 20 points in each of their last three games and 21 points or less in all six of their games against FBS opponents this season. This is still a talented team and one that still has plenty to play for, especially when you consider each of its last five games are of the 'winnable' variety. This is an excellent get-right spot for the Clemson offense against what I consider a bad Florida State defense. Note that the Seminoles have allowed 30+ points in four of seven games this season. Two of their other three games came against the likes of FCS squad Jacksonville State and lowly UMass. Here, we'll play the 'over' noting that it has cashed at an impressive 32-9 clip over the last five seasons when set between 42.5 and 49 points with the road team having won two of its last three games ATS but sporting a losing record on the season, as is the case with Florida State. The 'over' has gone a stunning 19-2 in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma -19 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Texas Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Texas Tech has faced a fairly easy schedule in recent weeks, but still only managed to go 2-2 SU since suffering a 70-35 rout at the hands of Texas in the final week of September. Now I believe the Red Raiders are ripe for another blowout loss as they catch Oklahoma in the wrong place the wrong time. The Sooners did win last week, but it wasn't pretty. They only managed to get past Kansas on a late surge, ultimately prevailing by a 35-23 score. Keep in mind, the last time we saw the Sooners play at home they rolled up over 500 yards of total offense in a 21-point rout of TCU. I believe they're well-positioned to post another rout here, noting they've put up a whopping 117 points in their last two meetings with Texas Tech. Here, we'll back the Sooners noting that they've gone 29-15 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over a conference opponent, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 22.4 points. Take Oklahoma (8*). |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Cincinnati -26 v. Tulane | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tulane at 12 noon et on Saturday. You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse than Tulane right now. The wheels have completely come off since the Green Wave opened the season with such promise after taking Oklahoma down to the wire in Norman before dismantling FCS squad Morgan State 69-20. Since then, Tulane has gone 0-5 SU and ATS. We successfully faded the Green Wave last week as they fell by 29 points against SMU. Now they face an even tougher challenge as they host second-ranked Cincinnati on Saturday, and likely do so without starting QB Michael Pratt. Pratt has been one of the only good things Tulane has had going for it as he has at least given the offense a pulse with his dual-threat ability. The Bearcats enter this game off a subpar performance against Navy last week. Of course, facing the Midshipmen is always a unique experience with their triple-option attack. Cincinnati actually did a good job of limiting the Navy offense in that game but got bogged down offensively itself. Here, I expect to see QB Desmond Ridder and his incredible supporting cast go off against a hapless Tulane defense that has been lit up for 4.6 yards per rush and 8.6 yard per pass attempt this season. The fact that Tulane has given up 40 and 55 points over its last two games is telling when you consider the offense turned the football over only twice. It's not as if the Green Wave have been handing the opposition a bunch of extra possessions. Look for the Bearcats to make the most of what they're given on Saturday as they bounce back from just their second ATS loss of the season (the first came as 36.5-point favorites against FCS squad Murray State back in Week 2). Take Cincinnati (9*). |
|||||||
10-29-21 | Cavs v. Lakers UNDER 220 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Lakers are coming off three straight exceptionally high-scoring games but I like the 'catalyst for change' angle here as they return home to host the upstart Cavs on Friday night. Cleveland has reeled off three straight wins including two in a row to open its current road trip and it has done it by playing tough defense and controlling the tempo on offense. Only four teams have had fewer possessions per game than the Cavs this season. The formula has been working so I don't see them changing anything on Friday night. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-3 with the Cavs coming off a game where both teams scored 105 points or less over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 201.0 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in with the 'under' having gone 15-2 the last 17 times they've come off a stretch that saw them lose four of their last five games ATS, as is the case here, good for an average total of just 206.4 points. They're still dealing with a number of key injuries and regardless who suits up on Friday night, I expect them to make an effort to step up their game defensively after that second half collapse in Oklahoma City two nights ago. The last time these two teams met the Lakers cruised to a 100-86 win here in Los Angeles last March with that game staying 'under' the total by 20 points. Look for this total to prove too high as well. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
10-29-21 | Kings v. Pelicans OVER 220 | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I really do feel this game has 'track meet potential' even though it isn't being priced as such. That's due in large part to the fact that the 'under' has gone a perfect 3-0 in each of these teams last three games. I expect that trend to reverse on Friday, however. Credit the Kings for scoring more than 100 points in all four games this season as they've faced an absolutely brutal schedule, going up against Portland, Utah, Golden State and Phoenix. They haven't shot the ball particularly well but that's been a product of the level of opposition they've faced more than anything else. Here, they catch a Pelicans defense that is in line for some considerable defensive regression after holding three straight opponents to 41.7% or worse shooting. New Orleans has gotten off to an uneven start offensively but the signs of a breakout are there. Last time out against Atlanta the Pelicans scored 33 points in the first quarter, building a 14-point lead, but then got complacent and ultimately faded in the second half in a 102-99 loss (we did win with the Pelicans plus the points in that one but missed with the 'over'). Here, they face a Kings squad that has allowed at least 107 points in all four games this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 with the Pelicans having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 230.5 points. All three of last year's meetings between these two teams were high-scoring, totaling 251, 227 and 227 points. Of course, the Pelicans don't have the services of Zion Williamson right now, but they're no slouches offensively with the additions of Jonas Valanciunas and Devonte' Graham. Take the over (9*). |
|||||||
10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Atlanta at 8:05 pm et on Friday. This hasn't been a particularly high-scoring series through two games but that's only served to afford us a reasonable total to work with as the scene shifts to Atlanta for Game 3 on Friday night. Note that the 'over' is 17-5 in Houston's last 22 games as a road underdog, resulting in an average total of 11.2 runs scored. In fact, you would have to go back to August 3rd to find the last time an Astros road game in which they were an underdog finished 'under' the total. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Braves have played at home off consecutive 'under' results (you have to go back four games to find their last 'over' result as Game 2 of this series settled on a 'push'), good for an average total of 10.4 runs in that spot. Astros starter Luis Garcia hasn't been nearly as effective on the road as at home this season, posting a 4.67 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He's coming off his best start of the postseason as he tossed 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball against the Red Sox in the ALCS, but that was at home. Braves starter Ian Anderson hasn't worked more than five innings in any of his three previous starts in these playoffs. He's been good, but certainly not great and here we'll note that he has made three starts against American League opponents this season and hasn't fared well, recording a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Note that the Braves have given Anderson a whopping 6.7 runs per start of support here at home this season. The Astros bullpen has not been all that reliable on the road this season, posting a collective 4.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with only 19 saves converted compared to 17 blown. Meanwhile, the Braves 'pen has recorded a 4.02 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 20 saves converted and 14 blown at home. Against American League foes, the Braves relief corps has posted an ugly 5.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with only three saves converted and six blown. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-29-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 102 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I certainly don't expect a distracted Blackhawks team to clamp down defensively in this one as they check in having yet to win a game in seven tries this season, allowing a whopping 4.3 goals per game along the way. We do find the Hurricanes in a spot where they have been vulnerable recently, however, noting that they've allowed 3.5 goals on average the last six times they've come off consecutive home wins by two goals or more, as is the case here. On the flip side of that, Carolina averages 4.2 goals when playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons. The Canes are likely to be up against Blackhawks goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury in this one and he's mired in one of the worst stretches of his entire career. Fleury owns an ugly .839 save percentage in four games this season. Those four games have totaled 6, 7, 5 and 9 goals. Carolina, meanwhile, is likely to give Antti Raanta his first start of the season. That's certainly worth pointing out when you consider how well Frederik Andersen has performed, recording a .956 save percentage while taking the net in all six games to date (the 'under' has gone 4-2 in those contests). The Blackhawks were a bad team last year as well, but still managed to score 10 goals in four games played here in Carolina (at least two in all four contests). Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-29-21 | Calgary v. Ottawa OVER 42.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. While I'm not necessarily anticipating a shootout in this game, I do feel the total has been set far too low, largely due to the inept nature of the RedBlacks offense in recent weeks. There is reason for some optimism when it comes to the Ottawa offense entering this game, however. Calgary is coming off four straight division games, including three hard-fought battles against the Roughriders. The Stamps defense has certainly held up well but I do feel that this is a spot where we could see them suffer a letdown of sorts, noting that they've allowed at least 22 points in all three previous matchups against East Division opponents this season. Yes, Ottawa has been dreadful on offense in recent weeks but it did recently add former Pittsburgh Steelers QB Duck Hodges and he should push current starting QB Caleb Evans, who has shown some positive flashes, as we wind down the stretch this season. It's the defensive side of the football where I'm most concerned for the RedBlacks as they've been ravaged by injuries to a unit that wasn't all that great to begin with. They've been absolutely lit up in recent weeks, 'letting go of the rope' so to speak as they near the end of a trying season. Over the last two games, they've allowed 59 points while giving up 247 rushing yards and over 600 passing yards. The fact that they still allowed 27 points despite benefiting from three turnovers against Montreal two weeks ago was telling. While Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been turnover-prone, here he'll benefit from facing a RedBlacks secondary that is a shell of its former self due in large part to a cluster of injuries. Interestingly, Calgary has had a better scoring offense on the road than at home, averaging 25.2 points per game in enemy territory compared to its 22.1 ppg overall scoring average. As for Ottawa, it has been marginally better at putting points on the board at home, averaging 19.6 points per game compared to its 15.6 ppg season scoring average. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
NFL TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Arizona at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Everything seems to be stacked against the Packers in this one with the news coming down that both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are on the Covid-19 list and unlikely to play on Thursday. That adds to an already impressive (not in a good way) list of players slated to miss, including CB Jaire Alexander and pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith. However, last time I checked, the Packers still had QB Aaron Rodgers and do-it-all RB Aaron Jones. We're talking about a team that has had to deal with Adams absence due to injury before and on those occasions, Rodgers has actually thrived. I really like the setup here with the Packers coming off a less-than-dominant performance against Washington last week (they still won by two touchdowns) and the Cardinals fresh off a complete dismantling of the lowly Texans at home. Here, we find the Packers in a terrific situation that has gone 55-22 ATS over the last 10 seasons in which we fade favorites priced between -3.5 and -10 that outscore the opposition by an average of 10+ points per game and come off a contest in which they allowed 14 points or less. Also note that the Cardinals are 0-6 ATS the last six times they've played at home after outgaining their previous opponent by 100+ total yards over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.8 points on average in that situation. They're a miserable 3-16 ATS the last 19 times that situation has come up but with the total yards advantage adjusted to 150. As for the Packers, they're a solid 12-4 ATS the last 16 times they've played with six or less days' rest, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.7 points in that spot. Take Green Bay (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals OVER 49.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Arizona at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This total has now fallen into playable range for us thanks to the Packers missing two of their top offensive weapons in WRs Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. I'm not overly concerned by their absence. The Packers gameplan doesn't really change. They knew they were going to have to play aggressively on offense in this one, knowing that they're unlikely to limit the Cardinals offense (remember, Green Bay is still without two of its best defensive players in CB Jaire Alexander and pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith). Note that the Packers are coming off four straight 'under' results, which also helps keep this total is a reasonable range. Every once in a while you will see the high-octane Cardinals get involved in a low-scoring affair. It just so happens that we've seen it in two of their last three games. Those games were against San Francisco (with rookie QB Trey Lance starting at the time) and Houston (with struggling rookie Davis Mills at quarterback). Even without Adams, the Packers offense is still more than capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard as last time I checked Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones were still healthy. Thanks to recent blowout wins, the Cardinals haven't had to really keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters. Make no mistake though, their offense is more than capable of marching up and down the field and scoring in bunches in this one. They've put up 30+ points in six of seven games and that's with five of those games resulting in a margin of victory in the double-digits. In what should be a more competitive affair on Thursday, I think the potential is there for a shootout. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
10-28-21 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 220.5 | 122-91 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won by the narrowest of margins with the 'over' in the Rockets last game as they fell by a 116-106 score in Dallas (some likely 'pushed' as the total ended up closing at 222). That one was set up well for a high-scoring result but a low-scoring fourth quarter ended up keeping the final score in a reasonable range, which has allowed us to step in and play the 'over' again on Thursday at an even more favorable number as the Rockets return home to host the Jazz. Houston isn't going to win many defensive slugfests this season. This young Houston squad is going to have to come up with something special offensively in order to outgun a superior Jazz squad on Thursday. While the Rockets have benefited from facing some teams that have yet to get rolling this season in the Thunder, Celtics and Mavs (they were rolled by the T'Wolves who have admittedly been playing well in their other contest), here they'll run into a Utah team that is coming off its best offensive performance of the season, putting up 122 points on just shy of 52% shooting against Denver two nights ago (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Jazz had little trouble running it up against the Rockets last season, scoring 114, 112 and 124 points in three meetings. The Rockets on the other hand were held under 100 points in two of those three matchups. I believe they're a better team this year, however. They've knocked down better than 47% of their field goal attempts in two previous home games this season and I think catching the Jazz 'fat and happy' off three consecutive lopsided wins to open the campaign is a good thing. Note that Utah did allow Denver to shoot 50.6% from the field on Tuesday. The 'over' is 32-17 with the Jazz coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.6 points. Meanwhile, the Rockets check in averaging 109.9 points when playing at home off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 226.9 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-21 | Avalanche -115 v. Blues | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We're taking a bit of a leap of faith with the Avalanche here as there's no question the Blues have been the superior team through the first couple of weeks of the season. In fact, St. Louis has already skated to a 5-3 win over Colorado, on the road no less. Apart from that victory, the Blues haven't exactly faced the toughest slate of opponents, however. After the game in Colorado they traveled to Arizona to face a Coyotes team that is still winless on the season. Next came a stop in Las Vegas, where they took on a Golden Knights squad missing two of its best players in Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty. Most recently, the Blues hosted a two-game home set against the Kings, who are expected to be one of the Western Conference's weakest teams. You get the picture. The Avs on the other hand have had no gimmes, perhaps other than a season-opening win over the hapless Blackhawks. Their three previous road games came against the Capitals, Panthers and Lightning. They managed to pick up only one victory in those three games and followed that trip with a tough home loss to the Knights two nights ago. Needless to say this is a game the Avs clearly have circled on their calendar (not that I'm a big proponent of backing teams based on motivation alone - every team is motivated). What I will note here is that the Blues are just 8-15 in their last 23 games after scoring 3+ goals in four or more consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, as they average just 2.6 goals in that spot. These two teams have faced each other 16 times since the start of 2020. Only once over that stretch has St. Louis managed to register consecutive wins. Finally, it's worth mentioning that the Blues will be without one of their leaders for an indefinite period of time as Ryan O'Reilly is in Covid protocol. Take Colorado (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-21 | South Florida v. East Carolina -9.5 | Top | 14-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
AAC First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on East Carolina first half minus the points over South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I like the fact that we're only being asked to lay single-digits with the Pirates in the first half in this key late October home game. East Carolina is coming off a hard-fought overtime loss at Houston last week - its second straight heart-breaking loss after falling by a 20-16 score at UCF in its previous game. Everything is still in front of the Pirates, however, as they certainly have a path to six wins and a potential Bowl game but there's no denying they need the win on Thursday against South Florida to make that happen. We actually won with the Bulls in last Saturday's rout of Temple. It wasn't a clean performance by any means, but USF was the lesser of two evils and managed to walk away with its second victory of the season. Unlike ECU, USF doesn't have much of a shot at going Bowling this season with a difficult schedule still ahead and no margin for error. The problem here is, the Bulls are dealing with a number of injuries and playing on a short week, on the road no less, doesn't help matters. With a defense that has been absolutely gashed both against the run and the pass, I have a hard time envisioning the Bulls offense, which could be led by multi-program disappointment Cade Fortin, struggling to get off on the right foot in this one. Note that the Bulls are a miserable 4-16 ATS as first half underdogs over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15.5 points. Worse still, they're 0-6 ATS in the first half when coming off a win over the same stretch, averaging a paltry 2.7 points while being outscored by an average margin of 20.8 points. On the flip side, ECU has outscored the opposition by 13.7 points on average in the first half at home this season. Take ECU first half (10*). |
|||||||
10-27-21 | Cavs v. Clippers -8 | 92-79 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cleveland at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers stunned the Nuggets in Denver on Monday, notching their second straight win to even their record at 2-2 on the season. That's actually a better record than that of the Clippers, who check into this one sitting at 1-2. Los Angeles is, however, coming off its first victory and it was an impressive one as it rolled to a 30-point rout of the Blazers on Monday. I like the Clips to keep the good vibes going for at least one more game on Wednesday. The Cavs are off to a fine start but they're still playing with a very slim margin for error as far as I'm concerned. Keep in mind, in their first two games this season - both losses - they shot better than 50% from the field, yet still fell by double-digit margins. In their last two contests they benefited from off shooting nights from their opponents with the Hawks and Nuggets knocking down just 38.4% and 40.7% of their shots, respectively. The Clippers dropped their first two games but both of those were tough, on the road against Golden State and at home against Memphis. They were competitive in both of those games, losing by just two and six points. Note that the Cavs are a woeful 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games against Pacific Division opponents, outscored by an average margin of 18.6 points in those contests. Despite Monday's victory, they're still just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games as a road underdog, outscored by 10.8 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Clips have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 14.7 points in their last eight home games against Central Division opponents. They won by 17 points as nine-point favorites the last time they faced the Cavs right here in L.A. last February. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
10-27-21 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 218.5 | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed by a bucket with the 'over' in the Pacers most recent game - a double-digit home loss to the Bucks on Monday. A 41-point fourth quarter cost us in that one as the Pacers couldn't get anything going in their attempt to rally late. The 'under' has now cashed in Indiana's last two games, but I don't think that's a sustainable trend. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Pacers, and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Pacers have come off an 'under' result, leading to an average total of 233.1 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 17-6 with Indiana coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.6 points. The Raptors might be in for a long season and certainly aren't going to set the league on fire with their offense, but I do think they'll be taking a step down in class against a Pacers team that doesn't play hard-nosed defense, certainly after going up against a strong defensive team like the Bulls last time out. Note that Indiana gave up 123 and 135 points in its two previous road games against Charlotte and Washington this season. The Raptors did manage to score 108 points on better than 48% shooting in a relatively slow-paced game against the Bulls last time out. Here, we can expect them to be baited into an up-tempo affair against a Pacers squad that has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in all four games. Finally, I'll note that the last time these two teams met last May we saw 238 points scored. The Raptors aren't the same team now but we're also dealing with a considerably lower total. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks have certainly had the Pelicans number, taking five straight meetings in this series going back to the start of 2018, including both matchups (in blowout fashion) last season. I believe the Pelicans are well-positioned to put up a fight on Wednesday, however, as they return home after posting their first victory of the season in Minnesota on Monday. The Hawks are coming off a win and cover against the lowly Pistons on Monday but this is a team that has shown a fairly strong home-road dichotomy over the years. Note that while they check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season they dropped their lone road game, falling by a 101-95 score in Cleveland. In fact, they're just 32-48 ATS on the road over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.8 points. The Pelicans on the other hand are in one of their most favorable spots here, and that's playing at home off an outright underdog victory, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 5.7 points while averaging a whopping 123.9 points in that situation over the last 2+ seasons (13-game sample size). We've also seen them outscore the opposition by 4.2 points on average after posting consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons (14-game sample size). New Orleans is obviously still without Zion Williamson but that's certainly been factored into the line (note that the Pelicans were +1.5 the last time they hosted the Hawks and only +3.5 the last time they played in Atlanta - both games were played last April). Take New Orleans (10*). |
|||||||
10-27-21 | Bruins v. Panthers UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Florida at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off fairly high-scoring contests with the Bruins prevailing by a 4-3 score over the Sharks and the Panthers skating to a 5-3 win over the Coyotes. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair when they match up in Sunrise on Wednesday night. The Bruins have actually topped out at four goals in their first four games this season, alternating high and low-scoring games as they check in sporting a 2-2 o/u mark. Here, I'll note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 with the Bruins playing on the road off a one-goal win over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.3 goals. The 'under' is also a rock solid 11-3 when the Bruins come off consecutive games in which they scored four or more goals over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, good for an average of just 4.9 total goals scored in that spot. On the flip side, the Panthers are in a strong 'under' situation here, noting that the 'under' has gone 64-35 in their last 99 home games after scoring three or more goals in three straight games, resulting in an average total of just 5.3 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 13-3 with the Panthers coming off five or more consecutive wins, producing an average total of 4.9 goals in that spot. The last time these two teams met we saw just three total goals - that game was also played in Florida. Both of tonight's expected starting goaltenders come in playing well with Linus Ullmark doing his best to win the starting job over Jeremy Swayman having posted a .935 save percentage in two games and Sergei Bobrovsky performing as well as he has at any point in his career, sporting a .942 save percentage through four games. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-26-21 | Jets v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' when these two teams met in Winnipeg last week, thanks only to a late flurry of goals from the Jets in what turned out to be a lopsided contest. Here, I'm expecting the Ducks to offer a little more resistance, and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in each of Winnipeg's last four games and each of Anaheim's last three. Interestingly enough, the last time we saw a Jets 'under' result came right here in Anaheim back in their season-opening 4-1 loss to the Ducks. Here we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 the last 12 times the Jets have played on the road after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.9 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-2 the last 12 times the Ducks have come off three consecutive 'over' results, good for an average total of only 4.5 goals. I'll also point out that the Ducks have given up just 2.6 goals per game the last 11 times they've come off consecutive road losses. We haven't seen consecutive meetings in this series produce more than five total goals since back in January/February of 2019. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
10-26-21 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218 | 110-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. Most are down on the Nuggets after their embarrassing home loss against the Cavaliers last night. I'm willing to take a flyer on the Denver offense here, however, noting that the 'over' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Nuggets have come off a home loss, averaging 119.2 points on average in that spot with an average total of 227.1 points scored. Meanwhile, the Jazz have posted a 49-33 o/u record when coming off an ATS win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 224.9 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 31-17 the last 48 times the Jazz have come off consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 227.5 points. This total has moved too low due to early season results. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
10-26-21 | Rockets v. Mavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have posted nothing but 'under' results through three and two games respectively this season but we do have a 'catalyst for change' at work here as the Mavs play their first home game of the season. Dallas is in one of our favorite 'over'-friendly situations here, noting that the 'over' has gone 54-36 with the Mavs coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 227.2 points scored. Better still, the 'over' checks in 29-15 with the Mavs coming off a game in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, producing a total of 229.2 points on average. As for the Rockets, they were stymied by a desperate Celtics squad (that checked in 0-2 on the season) last time out, held to 97 points in a 10-point loss (we won with Boston in that game). Here, I expect them to fare better offensively, noting that the Mavs have allowed 115 points on average when returning home off a road win over the last 2+ seasons. After shooting a miserable 33.3% and 41.8% in their first two games, look for the Mavs to 'get right' offensively in this one while the Rockets go along for the ride in what will be a higher-scoring game than most are expecting. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-26-21 | Sharks v. Predators UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Nashville at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. With both of these teams having seen the 'over' cash in their last two games a high total in Tuesday's matchup may appear warranted at first glance. I'm expecting a different story to unfold, however. While it's been a little while since these two teams last faced each other, the two rosters aren't all that different from what we saw when they squared off in games totaling just three and four goals back in November and December of 2019. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 with the Sharks playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last season-plus, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of only 4.0 goals. Likewise, the 'under' has gone 18-7 with the Predators playing at home following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. It's also worth mentioning that the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 with the Preds returning home off a road win over the same stretch, with an average total of just 3.8 goals scored. We've seen the Preds tighten things up in similar scheduling situations as well, allowing only 2.1 goals on average when playing for the third time in four nights over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Atlanta and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. NOTE: There's a discrepancy in first five innings totals being offered at a variety of books in advance of this one. I'm fine with playing the 'over' as high as 4.5 runs. Both of these teams closed out their respective LCS' with relatively low-scoring games but that hasn't been the norm during these playoffs. The Braves enter this series having seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five games. The Astros have seen the 'over' cash in eight of their last nine and 11 of their last 13 contests. Here, rather than play the full game 'over' the total we'll stick with the first five innings only. Charlie Morton gets the call for the Braves. The veteran right-hander's best start of the playoffs to date was his first, back in the NLDS against Milwaukee. In two starts since then he has allowed seven hits, seven walks and four earned runs in only 8 1/3 innings, striking out 10 along the way. Keep in mind, he struck out nine in his first start of the postseason. He didn't look confident in his command in his lone start against the Dodgers and now faces an even tougher opponent with the Astros entering this series hitting .287 as a team and averaging 6.6 runs per game over their last seven contests. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. As we predicted in our play on the 'under' (which we lost thanks to a late explosion from the Astros offense) in his most recent start, Valdez matched up well against the Red Sox, and at Fenway Park in particular. Here, I'm not sure he'll be so fortunate. Note that Valdez owns a 1.48 WHIP in 13 home starts this season with nine of those going 'over' the total. In his two previous playoff starts here at home he was tagged for six earned runs on 13 hits in only seven innings of work. By playing the first five innings only we'll aim to avoid two bullpens that have been admittedly sharp. Between the two 'pens, we've seen just one blown save in these playoffs with the Braves relief corps having posted a 3.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP and the Astros checking in with a 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
|||||||
10-25-21 | Bucks v. Pacers OVER 229 | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We've seen this total drop since opening and I believe it's a knee-jerk reaction after the Pacers were involved in a low-scoring 102-91 victory over the Heat on Saturday. Keep in mind, Indiana's first two games this season totaled 245 and 269 points. In three meetings between the Bucks and Pacers last season we saw 240, 253 and 275 total points. When playing a Bucks 'over', we generally like to do so when they're coming off a win, noting that situation has produced a 37-23 o/u record going back to last season, good for an average total of 234.4 points scored. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 19-8 with the Pacers coming off an 'under' result going back to last season, producing an average total of 233.3 points in that spot. Better still, the 'over' has gone 26-11 with the Pacers playing consecutive home games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 235.8 points. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
10-25-21 | Lightning v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Now that it appears Brian Elliott will be in goal for his Lightning debut on Monday night, we'll step in with a play on the 'over'. Tampa Bay is coming off consecutive losses but with this being the first game of a back-to-back set (which concludes on Tuesday in Pittsburgh), Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to get the night off. The Bolts have now been held to three goals or less in three straight games since scoring seven in a victory over Detroit back on October 14th. Here, I believe they're well-positioned to bust out of their offensive slump. Note that the 'over' is 12-3 the last 15 times the Sabres have come off a road loss by one goal, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Interestingly, Buffalo checks in averaging 3.7 goals when coming off an overtime loss over the last 2+ seasons, a is the case here following its 2-1 OT loss in New Jersey on Saturday. You would have to go back four meetings to find the last time a matchup between these two teams produced fewer than seven total goals. The last three times they've met in a game that didn't feature Andrei Vasievskiy between the pipes we saw final scores totaling nine, eight and nine goals. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Islanders v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Sunday. The Islanders haven't met a low-scoring game they didn't like and off another one last night in Arizona (they won 3-0) we'll call for a tightly-contested affair on Sunday night in Las Vegas. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Isles playing on the road off a win by two goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. Likewise, the 'under' is 16-5 with the Knights coming off a game in which they gave up five goals or more, as is the case here following Friday's 5-3 loss to the Oilers. That situation has led to an average total of just 4.6 goals scored as well. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Celtics -5 v. Rockets | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start and coming off an ugly 115-83 home loss against the Raptors on Friday night. Meanwhile the Rockets have split their first two games and are fresh off a 124-91 home win over the Thunder on Friday. Here, we find the Celtics in a situation that has gone 36-13 ATS over the last five seasons, as they come off an upset loss as a favorite facing an opponent that's coming off a home win in which it scored 110+ points. Teams in that situation have outscored opponents by 13.1 points on average over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Celtics are 22-10 ATS after dropping two or more straight games ATS over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points on average in that spot. Last year, the Celtics were favored by 11 points in their lone stop in Houston and won by 27. Take Boston (8*). |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Lions v. Rams -16 | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Lions can't stop the run. They can't stop the pass. They have an offense that can't play from behind. It's clearly a recipe for disaster as they head across the country to face the Rams on Sunday afternoon. You can throw motivation out the window - we've all heard enough about the Jared Goff-Matt Stafford angle in this one. The simple fact is, the Lions offense is broken - as evidenced by the fact that they've been shut out in the first half in three of their last four games and have managed to score no more than 17 points in any of their last five contests since an anomaly of a performance in the second half against the 49ers way back in Week 1. QB Jared Goff is firmly planted in the hot seat right now and I'm not convinced that head coach Dan Campbell calling him out publicly after last week's game will lead to positive results. In fact, I'm quite certain of the opposite. The Rams 'got right' on a two-game road trip through Seattle and New York and now return home for this absolute smash spot. Los Angeles is well-armed to dismantle a fading Lions defense while the Rams own defense should feast on a Lions offense that has few weapons, some of which are banged-up right now including TE T.J. Hockenson. This is the continuation of a dream three-game stretch for the Rams which began with a 27-point rout of the Giants last week. I'm confident we'll see them roll by 20+ in all three games - a stretch that concludes with a trip to Houston on Halloween. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 6 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Lamar Jackson has made a habit of laying waste to the Bengals defense and as he checks into this game playing some of the best football of his career, we can anticipate more of the same on Sunday. The question when it comes to the total in this game is whether Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense can be along for the ride and help this one 'over' the very reasonable number. I believe he and they can and will. The Chargers quite simply didn't show up for last week's much-hyped showdown with the Ravens. We won with Baltimore in that game as the Ravens jumped ahead early and salted the game away from there. Here, I believe we'll see the Bengals find a way to stick around in this game, just as they have in virtually every game this season. The Ravens defense hasn't been particularly dominant against the run or the pass - due to injuries or otherwise. Last week's solid boxscore numbers for the defense had everything to do with the Chargers throwing their offensive gameplan out the window after the deficit got out of hand. While this game isn't likely to be a true shootout, it doesn't have to be for us to cash this ticket given the range the total currently sits in. Interestingly, the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Ravens have come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 53.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins +2.5 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not buying into the Falcons for a second. Their two wins this season have come on a last-second field goal against the hapless Giants and in London against the lowly Jets. Yes, Miami is at a scheduling disadvantage here after playing in London last Sunday - where it fell to the Jaguars, but the Fins are actually getting healthier in this spot with CB Xavien Howard expected to return. Lost in last week's defeat was the progress made by the Dolphins offense with QB Tua Tagovailoa back at the helm as he threw for 354 yards and as a team Miami turned the football over only once. It wasn't really a bad performance from the Miami defense either as it held the Jags to 84 rush yards and 25-of-41 passing for 312 yards through the air. Take Miami (8*). |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Canucks v. Seattle Kraken -112 | 4-2 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kraken ran out of gas at the end of their season-opening road trip, dropping consecutive lopsided decisions against the Flyers and Devils in a back-to-back set earlier this week. Here, I look for Seattle to show up and show out in its first game in front of the home faithful at Climate Pledge Arena. The Kraken catch the Canucks in a favorable spot here as Vancouver has gone a woeful 0-7 the last seven times it has come off a road win in which it scored four goals or more, as is the case here following Thursday's 4-1 win in Chicago. The Canucks have been outscored by an average margin of 2.3 goals in that spot. The 'Nucks are also just 7-24 when coming off three or more consecutive road games, which is the case on Saturday, outscored by an average margin of 1.5 goals. Take Seattle (6*). |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Islanders v. Coyotes +1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -170 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over New York at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Coyotes +1.5 on Thursday and it wasn't close as they fell to the Oilers by a 5-1 score. I do look for them to finally bounce back on Saturday, however, as they host the Islanders. Note that Arizona has gone a perfect 5-0 the last five times it has played at home after allowing four goals or more in consecutive games, outscoring opponents by 2.2 goals on average in that spot. They're also a solid 8-1 the last nine times they've come off consecutive home losses, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. The Isles meanwhile are 2-10 the last 12 times they've played on the road off consecutive road contests, outscored by 1.1 goals on average. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (5*). |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Hurricanes -150 v. Blue Jackets | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are playing well out of the gates with the Hurricanes a perfect 3-0 and Columbus right behind them in the Metropolitan Division standings at 3-1. Here, I like the Canes to keep it rolling. Note that Columbus checks in 0-7 the last seven times it has played at home off a division win, as is the case here following Thursday's overtime victory over the Islanders, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. I mentioned overtime, well, the last six times the Jackets have played at home off an overtime win they've averaged a miserable 1.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Canes have gotten stronger as road trips have gone on in recent years, going 18-6 the last 24 times they've played on the road off at least two straight road games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. Take Carolina (7*). |
|||||||
10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over UTSA at 7 pm et on Saturday. Texas-San Antonio has earned a national top-25 ranking for the first time in program history but I expect its stay to be short-lived. Wins are never easy to come by for teams that travel to Ruston to face the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech, regardless the state of the program. Here, I question who the Roadrunners have really beat this year? The wins have come against Illinois, Lamar, Middle Tennessee, Memphis, UNLV, Western Kentucky and Rice. Even the 'name' programs in that bunch are mired in down years. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech checks in 2-4 on the season but as I mentioned, it has been competitive once again here in Ruston, going 2-1 with its lone loss coming by two points on a touchdown with six seconds left in the fourth quarter against still-undefeated and nationally-ranked SMU back on September 18th. The Bulldogs laid an egg on the road against UTEP last week and that's a big reason why we're dealing with such a generous helping of points here. Keep in mind, just two games back, Louisiana Tech went on the road and gave N.C. State all it could handle in a seven-point loss. There's still a clear path for Louisiana Tech to reach a Bowl game this year as I count five winnable games left on its schedule - including this one. Remember, this same matchup produced a narrow 27-26 result in favor of UTSA last year. Expect another tightly-contested affair here. Take Louisiana Tech (10*). |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Temple v. South Florida -2 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Florida minus the points over Temple at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with an easy fade of Temple last week in Cincinnati and I won't hesitate to go back to the well at a much more reasonable price as the Owls stay on the road to face South Florida on Saturday. This one has pretty much fallen into our laps with the Bulls falling to under a field goal favorite. There's really nothing curious about the line. Temple is a respectable 3-3 on the season while USF checks in a miserable 1-5. But let's keep things in perspective here. The Owls wins have come against Akron, FCS squad Wagner and Memphis. Yes, the win over Memphis could be considered somewhat impressive but that had everything to do with the Tigers jumping out to a big lead early and thinking they had the win in the bag, without a legitimate defense to back it up. South Florida has faced a brutal schedule, going up against N.C. State, BYU and SMU on the road and Florida, Florida A&M (its lone win) and Tulsa here at home. Credit the Bulls for coming out of their bye week and giving a quality Tulsa squad all it could handle in a one-point loss last week. This is essentially a 'must-win' game for Temple if it wants to keep its Bowl hopes alive and I like that as it's certainly being factored into the line in our favor with the Bulls. South Florida doesn't have the benefit of carrying the same (false) hope but should get up for this winnable game before the schedule gets tougher again down the stretch. Take South Florida (9*). |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Wake Forest v. Army UNDER 53 | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Army at 12 noon et on Saturday. The bye week came at the right time for Wake Forest as it was very fortunate to remain undefeated in spite of awful defensive performances against Louisville and Syracuse in consecutive weeks heading in. This is a far stronger defense that it has shown as far as I'm concerned and now it gets a tough, albeit different test against Army's triple-option offense on Saturday. I expect the Demon Deacons defense to rise to the occasion. On the flip side, Army knows it needs to tighten things up after suffering consecutive losses - its first two defeats of the season - against Ball State and Wisconsin. The Black Knights defense certainly wasn't bad in either game - in fact, this is a unit that has gotten stronger as the season has gone on, but it knows it will need to be better against a dynamic Wake Forest offense on Saturday. Having scored 35+ points in each of its first six games this season, Wake Forest is certainly in line for some regression offensively and this would appear to be an ideal spot for that as this has the potential to be a slugfest. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
10-22-21 | Washington -17.5 v. Arizona | 21-16 | Loss | -108 | 56 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Arizona at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Arizona has quietly been one of the worst teams in the country this season and I don't envision a sudden turnaround against Washington on Friday night. The Wildcats didn't score a single point in last week's 34-0 drubbing at the hands of a fairly weak Colorado squad. Arizona has yet to win a game this season - in fact, it has yet to break 20 points in a game. QBs Gunner Cruz and Jordan McCloud are sidelined for the remainder of the season leaving the starting job to an ineffective Will Plummer. The only reason the Wildcats defense hasn't posted truly embarrassing numbers is because they haven't faced many explosive offensive opponents. Still, it's notable that they allowed 271 rush yards against San Diego State and a whopping 329 yards on the ground against UCLA. The Washington ground game has been held down for the most part but that should change here. Remember, the Huskies did run for 200 yards against Arkansas State and 176 yards against Oregon State earlier this season so they're certainly capable of salting this game away should they build a considerable lead. We can expect the Huskies to be afforded some extra offensive possessions in this contest, noting that Arizona simply hasn't taken care of the football, turning it over a whopping 12 times over its last four games. Washington got a big boost on the defensive side of the football with extraordinary pass rusher Zion Tupuola-Fetui getting on the field for 10 plays against UCLA in his long-awaited return from a torn achilles. He's expected to see more action this week and should wreak havoc against a very beatable Arizona offensive front. The Huskies defense is loaded with talent and experience but hasn't necessarily lived up to expectations this season. With that being said, teams that don't boast much of a ground game don't have much luck against Washington, as the Huskies have held opposing passing games to just 5.4 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 7.2 yppa. While they have given up a less than impressive 4.7 yards per rush, that's against opponents that average 4.8 ypr. Despite a rough 2-4 start to the season, there's still a path for the Huskies to reach a Bowl game with four games left on their schedule. It goes without saying they need the win here, however. I'm confident they'll get it, in convincing fashion. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
10-22-21 | Oilers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Oilers have come flying out of the gates this season, scoring 18 goals through four games (19 officially but one goal was a result of earning a shootout win). I don't believe their offensive surge is sustainable, however. Note that Edmonton averages only 2.5 goals when playing on the road after registering a road win by two goals or more, as is the case here following last night's 5-1 win in Arizona. The 'under' has gone 9-2 in that spot over the last year. Meanwhile, the 'under' checks in 7-1 when the Knights play at home after giving up 3+ goals in consecutive games over the same period, resulting in an average total of just 3.7 goals. This has not been a high-scoring series by any means with five of six all-time meetings between these two teams in Vegas staying 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-22-21 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 220.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this spot sets up as a relatively low-scoring game between the Spurs and Nuggets on Friday night. San Antonio exploded for 123 points in its season-opener but that was at home against the lowly Magic - likely to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. San Antonio should find the going much tougher as it hits the road to face the Nuggets on Friday. Denver manhandled the defending Western Conference champion Suns in Phoenix two nights ago, cruising to a 110-98 win. Both the Spurs and Nuggets shot 50% or better from the field in their respective openers but repeating that performance will be tough two nights later. Lost in those impressive offensive performances was the fact that both teams played solid defense, holding the opposition to 40.7% and 41.4% shooting, respectively. The Spurs fall into one of my preferred 'under' systems that has cashed at a 25-6 clip over the last five seasons with just shy of 70% of those wins coming by seven points or more. That system involves playing the 'under' in a game where a losing team from the previous season comes off a home win in which it scored 110+ points, as is the case with San Antonio here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-21-21 | San Jose State v. UNLV +5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Jose State at 11 pm et on Thursday. We won with San Jose State as it gave San Diego State everything it could handle in a double-overtime loss last week. In fact, I've been fairly high on the Spartans for much of the season. With that being said, I'm going to go the other way and fade SJSU as it hits the road to face winless UNLV at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Thursday night. There's no denying the fact that the season has been somewhat of a disaster for San Jose State. The Spartans have quite simply been unable to recapture the magic that led them to a Mountain West Conference championship last season. Last week's loss was a back-breaker both physically and emotionally. While there's no question the Spartans absolutely need to get a win over the Rebels here, desperation doesn't always lead to victory. The schedule won't get any easier from here and at this point, San Jose State might be hard-pressed to simply reach a Bowl game. UNLV checks in 0-6 on the season but it continues to play hard, with its last three and four of six losses this season coming by eight points or less. The Rebels schedule has been tough to be sure, you could argue this is only their second winnable game of the campaign (they lost their season-opener 35-33 as a 1.5-point favorite against FCS squad Eastern Washington). There was certainly no shame in taking better-than-expected Fresno State and Texas-San Antonio teams down to the wire (on the road no less) before dropping a narrow 28-24 decision against Utah State last week. We've seen flashes of brilliance from the Rebels on both sides of the football throughout the campaign but consistency, or a lack thereof, has been an issue. Here, they should benefit from facing a Spartans squad that has dealt with similar problems, but has been just plain bad for the most part on offense, whether due to injuries or otherwise. They could get QB Nick Starkel back from injury this week but even when he was healthy early in the season, their offense still sputtered. The fact that SJSU only managed to pull out four and six-point victories against Hawaii and New Mexico State respectively is telling. While the Rebels look like they're having a whole lot of fun (take note of the slot machine they have on their sideline for home games at Allegiant Stadium) and making progress, the opposite can be said of the Spartans. Here, I'll note that the Spartans average just 24.5 points and outscore the opposition by a minuscule 0.3 points on average when playing on the road off an ATS win over the last two seasons, as is the case here. That includes an 0-1 ATS mark in that situation this season as they fell by a 30-7 score at USC back in the first week of September. Take UNLV (10*). |
|||||||
10-21-21 | Oilers v. Coyotes UNDER 6 | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off wild, high-scoring games last time out with the Oilers holding on for a 6-5 win over the Ducks and the Coyotes dropping their third straight game to open the season by a 7-4 score against the Blues. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Thursday in Glendale. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-4 with the Oilers playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. Also note that the Oilers check in allowing only 2.5 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in their last contest over the last 2+ seasons. Meanwhile, the Coyotes have given up an average of only 2.3 goals when coming off a home loss by two or more goals over the last 2+ seasons. The situation hasn't come up all that often over the years but when the Coyotes play at home with a total of 6.0 or higher, the 'under' has cashed at a 17-6 clip, good for an average total of just 5.1 goals scored. It's been a while since these teams last met but when they did, the Coyotes skated to a low-scoring 3-0 win here in Glendale back in 2020. In fact, four of the last five meetings in Arizona have totaled five goals or less. Take the under (7*). |
|||||||
10-21-21 | Oilers v. Coyotes +1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Things haven't gone well for the Coyotes so far this season as they check in 0-3, having been outscored by a wide 17-7 margin. Meanwhile, the Oilers are off to a perfect 3-0 start, having scored a whopping 14 goals. Here, I'll take a flyer on the Coyotes as we're being offered a reasonable price to back them with an insurance goal. Note that Arizona has gone 12-3 and outscored opponents by an impressive margin of 1.4 goals on average when coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. Meanwhile, the Oilers average 2.9 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons and check in allowing 3.5 goals per game while outscoring opponents by just 0.3 goals on average when coming off a home win by four goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. You would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time the Oilers defeated the Coyotes by more than a goal here in Glendale - that's going back four meetings in the desert. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (5*). |
|||||||
10-21-21 | Canucks v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter Thursday's game struggling with the Canucks off consecutive losses and just 1-3 on the season and the Blackhawks yet to pick up a single win through four games. Here, I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks. Note that the 'over' is 15-6 with the Blackhawks coming off a a loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.0 goals. The 'over' has cashed at an identical 15-6 clip with the Canucks coming off two losses in their last three games over that same stretch, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals. It's also worth mentioning that the Canucks have had a tendency to 'let go of the rope' on long road trips, having given up a whopping 4.5 goals on average after playing three or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with a 15-game sample size. That situation has produced an average total of 6.8 goals. It's been a while since these two teams have met but three of five matchups since the start of 2019 have totaled at least seven goals and going back further, 10 of their last 12 meetings have reached at least six goals. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
10-21-21 | Broncos +3 v. Browns | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Browns were already going to be in a tough spot on Thursday night, playing on a short week with the pressure ratcheted up following consecutive losses against the Chargers and Cardinals. Now without QB Baker Mayfield, RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt among others, I don't expect them to bounce back against the Broncos. Denver hasn't been playing well, fresh off three straight losses albeit against tough opposition in the Ravens, Steelers (on the road) and Raiders. Here, the Broncos have an excellent 'get right' matchup against what should be a very limited Browns offense with journeyman QB Case Keenum at the helm and a defense that hasn't been nearly as stout as advertised. Consider this a breakout spot for the Broncos offense while I have plenty of confidence in Vic Fangio's ability to scheme up a gameplan to shut down Cleveland's struggling and undermanned offense. Note that for all of its recent struggles, Denver still checks in a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a loss against a division opponent, outscoring opponents by 2.6 points on average in that spot. Take Denver (8*). |
|||||||
10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat had a productive preseason, going 5-1 and getting some new faces acclimated into the lineup while also wisely managing the minutes of all of its key contributors. I look for Miami to get the new season off to a positive start against the defending champion Bucks on Thursday. Milwaukee is of course already 1-0 on the season after an impressive win over the Nets on Tuesday. The win didn't come without a price, however, as Jrue Holliday did suffer a heel injury in the game. He is expected to play on Thursday but it's notable as the Bucks are already dealing with a number of banged-up players (Bobby Portis, Rodney Hood and Donte DiVincenzo are all sidelined). Here, we'll back the Heat noting that despite all of their ups and downs in recent years, they have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points here at home over the last couple of seasons. I expect them to bring plenty of energy to their home-opener on Thursday and I think they have the talent to back it up. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
10-21-21 | Ducks v. Jets UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We're being offered a very reasonable price to back the 'under' in this one, largely due to the fact that the Ducks are coming off a wild 6-5 loss in Edmonton while the Jets have seen their last two contests total seven and nine goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Ducks playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average of only 4.5 total goals. Meanwhile, the Jets have posted a 14-26 o/u record, averaging only 2.5 goals per game with an average total of 5.3 goals after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons. Interestingly, Winnipeg also averages just 2.4 goals per game when playing at home off an 'over' result over the last 2+ seasons. On a positive note for the Jets, they allow only 2.1 goals per game when coming off a road loss against a division opponent over the same stretch. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 2-11 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Much like the ALCS, the 'over' has ruled the NLCS, cashing in each of the last three games. I look for that trend to reverse on Thursday, however, as the Braves send Max Fried to the hill in hopes of closing out this series. Fried has of course been outstanding this season, and particularly in the playoffs, recording a 1.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in two postseason starts. He has incredibly worked at least six innings in 14 consecutive starts, allowing more than two earned runs only twice over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 with Fried taking the hill as an underdog priced between +100 and +150, resulting in an average total of only 4.5 runs. Also note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 with the Braves playing on the road after putting up nine runs or more in their previous contest, with an average total of just 5.5 runs scored. The Dodgers have yet to decide on a starter but we do know this is likely to be a 'bullpen game' for them. Despite trailing in this series, the Dodgers 'pen has held up well recently, recording a collective 3.03 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the under (5*). |
|||||||
10-21-21 | Capitals -120 v. Devils | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Devils are off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season with wins over the Blackhawks and expansion Kraken. They were dealt a tough blow in Tuesday's victory over Seattle, however, as emerging superstar and former first overall draft pick Jack Hughes appeared to suffer a shoulder injury. It remains to be seen whether he can return on Thursday as of the time of writing. Regardless, I look for New Jersey to fall short in its attempt at a third consecutive victory on Thursday night. Note that the Devils are 0-9 the last nine times they've played at home off consecutive wins, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 goals in that situation. They're also just 8-23 in their last 29 home games against division opponents, outscored by 0.9 goals on average. As for the Capitals, they've been a solid positive momentum play, averaging 3.5 goals and outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average after scoring four or more goals in their last game over the last two-plus seasons, as is the case here off Tuesday's 6-3 win over the Avalanche. The Caps have owned this series in recent years, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings over the last three seasons, including a 5-1 mark here in Newark. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
10-20-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blues are off to a red hot start this season, scoring 12 goals in recording back-to-back road wins over the Avalanche and Coyotes. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are coming off a 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Kings in Los Angeles last time out. That sets them up well here, noting that they average 4.1 goals when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. I do question whether they can keep the Blues offense at bay, however, noting that St. Louis averages 3.4 goals when coming off a win of any kind over the last 2+ seasons and by all accounts has its best offensive team in years here in 2021-22. While the Knights will be missing two of its top goal scorers in Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, I believe that will allow their depth to shine through in the short-term. Note that Stone's defensive play might be missed even more than his offensive work. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years with nine of the last 11 meetings going 'over' the total. Last year's three meetings that featured the goaltending matchup of Jordan Binnington vs. Robin Lehner (which is expected tonight) totaled nine, six and seven goals. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-20-21 | Celtics v. Knicks -2 | Top | 134-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks made massive progress last season, reaching the playoffs before being dumped unceremoniously at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. I think we'll see New York play with an even bigger chip on its shoulder this season as it looks to take care of unfinished business. Remember, the Knicks gave the Celtics all they could handle and then some last season, winning two of three meetings including a 30-point rout early in the campaign, in Boston no less. The Celtics were never really able to find their footing last season and while I do expect them to fare better here in 2021-22, a slow start could once again be in the cards. The C's are already dealing with Covid-19 quarantine issues as they'll be without Al Horford for this game while Jaylen Brown isn't certain to play but likely will be able to go. The Knicks of course made a big splash in the offseason by acquiring former Celtic Kemba Walker. Walker is no stranger to the Garden from his days with UConn in the Big East. I love the addition of Walker as his scoring should relieve some of the pressure on veteran Derrick Rose who was asked to take on a prominent role over the course of last season. If Walker can elevate the play of the rest of the Knicks young core, the sky really is the limit this season. Here, we'll back the Knicks noting that they've thrived in similar situations as a short home favorite, going 26-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by 6.0 points on average when priced between +3 and -3 over the last season-plus. Better still, that record is 18-3 ATS when only factoring in home games, with New York outscoring opponents by 7.0 points on average. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
10-20-21 | Bruins -135 v. Flyers | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Bruins will likely be a popular play on Wednesday night but that doesn't mean they're the wrong one. I like the way this one sets up for the B's as they hit the road for the first time this season to face the uneven Flyers. Philadelphia opened its campaign with a shootout loss to the Canucks - a game they really had no business getting a point out of having trailed by two goals with just a couple of minutes remaining. Since then we've seen the 'Nucks go on to lose games against the Red Wings and Sabres. We did see the Flyers bounce back on Monday as they caught the expansion Seattle Kraken in a favorable spot and rolled to a 6-1 victory. Here, they'll turn to backup goaltender Martin Jones against Boston and I'm not convinced they have the offensive firepower to keep up with the B's. Note that Philadelphia checks in 5-13 after scoring four goals or more in its last game over the last season-plus, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. In fact, the Flyers are just 7-17 the last 24 times they've come off a win of any kind, outscored by 1.5 goals on average while giving up 4.1 goals per game in that situation. The Bruins have taken four of the last six meetings here in Philadelphia and I like their advantage here with underrated goaltender Jeremy Swayman going up against the aforementioned Jones. Take Boston (6*). |
|||||||
10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State OVER 61.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We won with Coastal Carolina in its most recent game while also cashing with the 'under' in Appalachian State's blowout loss against Louisiana-Lafayette last week. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as the red hot Chanticleers stay on the road for a second straight game. Coastal Carolina was considered somewhat of a 'fluke' during a unique Covid-tinged 2020 season but there's no talk of that this year. The Chanticleers are the real deal. While their offense has been virtually unstoppable, their defense has also held up well. With that being said, few opposing offenses have offered much of a challenge. I do think we'll see CCU get a solid punch from Appalachian State here, however. The Mountaineers turned the football over four times in last week's 41-13 road loss against Lousiana-Lafayette. The hope is that they'll have standout RB Camerun Peoples back for this midweek affair, although even if he can't go, I still expect them to get well into the 20's at the very least. Defensively, Appalachian State is brimming with talent but that was the case last year as well. Despite holding the Chanticleers to 12-of-21 passing in that 2020 meeting, the Mountaineers still gave up 34 points. Meanwhile, they managed to score 23 points themselves despite three turnovers. In the last two games we saw Coastal Carolina put up 111 points and complete 43-of-51 passes for nearly 700 yards without barely breaking a sweat. The Chanticleers check in having run for over 200 yards in all six games this season. This is a team that's firing on all cylinders offensively with QB Grayson McCall one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation. I do think we see Appalachian State get enough offensive possessions to inflict some damage in this one - enough to help the final score up and 'over' the total. Last year's matchup featured a real defensive tone yet still got to 57 total points. Two years ago, these two teams combined to score a whopping 93 points. Expect this one to fall somewhere between those two numbers. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-20-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Red Sox | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over Boston at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros stunned the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night - ruining our 'under' ticket in the process - and I look for them to build off of that victory on Wednesday. With struggling veteran Chris Sale taking the ball for Boston, I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is favored in this game. Sale has made two starts in the playoffs. In his first he gave up five earned runs in just an inning of work against the Rays. Earlier in this series against the Astros he lasted only 2 1/3 innings, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out only two in an eventual 5-4 loss. Astros starter Framber Valdez hasn't pitched particularly well in the postseason either but he's faced the Red Sox three times this season and Houston won all three games, including a 7-1 victory in his lone previous start here at Fenway Park (he worked into the eighth inning and allowed just one earned run in that outing). Here, I'll note that the Red Sox are just 33-42 when playing at home after winning two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They're a mediocre 65-66 after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons - also the case here - not holding a scoring edge whatsoever in that situation. Finally, I'll point out that the Red Sox bullpen has taken a real sour turn, having blown four saves without converting a single one over their last seven games. Take Houston +1.5 runs (5*). |
|||||||
10-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers OVER 227 | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
NBA TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll go the contrarian route here and back the 'under' with this total having dropped several points since opening. Given the way last season played out for both of these teams it's no real surprise to see the total move in that direction. There are bettors that are just learning that Klay Thompson, while set to return this season, won't be ready for the start of the campaign. Still, as the relatively short pointspread indicates, I believe the Warriors can keep this game competitive. The Lakers had their share of struggles defending their title last season, with Lebron James and Anthony Davis in and out of the lineup due to injuries and a somewhat lacking supporting cast. Now we're talking about a different Lakers squad that I believe we'll be a lot more fun to watch with the likes of Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony among those joining the fold. I'm not convinced either of these teams will be ready to come out playing hard-nosed defense. Note that the Lakers allowed at least 111 points in all six preseason contests - all losses. Meanwhile, the Warriors put up 111 points or more in all five preseason games, going undefeated along the way. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-19-21 | Ducks v. Oilers -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton -1.5 goals over Anaheim at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the Ducks playing the second of back-to-back games in Alberta and fresh off last night's 3-2 overtime win over the Flames, I'm comfortable laying the extra goal with the Oilers in a favorable spot for the home side on Tuesday night. Note that the Ducks are a miserable 4-21 after a one-goal victory in their most recent game over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that spot. Worse still, Anaheim is 0-12 after winning two of its last three games over the last year, as is the case here, allowing 4.4 goals on average and outscored by an average margin of 2.7 goals in that situation. The Oilers are off to a tremendous start this season, scoring seven goals (they won their first game in a shootout) on a whopping 67 shots on goal. I don't expect them to get complacent in the final game of this three-game homestand, however, noting that they've allowed 85 shots on goal through two games, so there's room for improvement here. Take Edmonton -1.5 goals (6*). |
|||||||
10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in last night's Game 3 matchup - in fact, we've won with the 'over' twice already in this series. With each of the last five meetings between these two teams going 'over' the total and both teams entering on six-game 'over' streaks, it's no surprise that we're working with a double-digit total tonight. I believe it will prove too high. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-8 with the Astros playing on the road after losing two of their last three games this season, as is the case here, producing an average total of 8.2 runs. Houston is averaging just 4.0 runs with an average total of 8.2 runs in 27 previous situations where it was coming off a loss by four runs or more this season. The presence of struggling veteran Zack Greinke for the Astros is of course a concern. One thing he doesn't lack at this stage of his career is command, and it's worth noting that he has posted a better-than-MLB average hard-hit ball percentage and exit velocity off opposing bats this season. Nick Pivetta stepped into a pressure-packed situation against the Rays in the ALDS and tossed four shutout innings in his most recent appearance for the Red Sox. His overall numbers aren't great this season but I do think he can keep the Astros bats at bay in this one as Houston faces a lot of pressure down 2-1 in this series. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
10-19-21 | Jets v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Jets and Wild on Tuesday night in the State of Hockey. The 'under' has actually combined to go a perfect 4-0 in games involving these teams this season but that only helps keep Tuesday's total at a reasonable number. Note that the Jets managed to score three goals despite firing only 23 shots on goal in Saturday's loss in San Jose. In Winnipeg's season-opening 4-1 loss in Anaheim it recorded 34 shots on goal. Here, we find the Jets averaging 3.3 goals per game when coming off a road loss over the last 2+ seasons. When playing three or more consecutive road games, they check in averaging 3.5 goals per contest. As for the Wild, the 'over' has gone 17-7 when they come off consecutive games in which they allowed two goals or less over the last 2+ seasons, leading to an average total of 6.7 goals. Similarly, the 'over' is 37-22 the last 59 times they've come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, good for an average total of 6.6 goals. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
10-19-21 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. We saw totals set at '5' in this same matchup down the stretch last season and I fully expect to see that number return in later season tilts between these two. Both are coming off low-scoring affairs. The Blue Jackets prevailed in overtime by a 2-1 score against the expansion Kraken on Saturday while the Red Wings skated to a 3-1 victory over the Canucks. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-3 with the Blue Jackets playing on the road off consecutive home games over the last 2+ seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Jackets have played on the road off a win as they've averaged just 2.2 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 17-5 the last 22 times Columbus has followed up consecutive victories, as is the case here, good for an average total of only 4.9 goals. The Red Wings check in averaging a woeful 1.8 goals per game when playing at home following a home victory by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing all six times that situation has come up. When playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons, the Wings have averaged a ridiculous 1.2 goals per contest, with the 'under' also cashing at a perfect 6-0 clip in that spot. While the last two meetings between the Jackets and Wings were high-scoring affairs, the 'under' remains a solid 59-40 (excluding pushes) all-time and 28-20 in games played here in Detroit. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-19-21 | Panthers +1.5 v. Lightning | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. While we're being asked to pay a fairly steep price to grab the insurance goal with the Panthers here, I believe that price could be even higher. Tampa Bay checks in off consecutive road wins over the Red Wings and Capitals, with both of those victories coming by a single goal. Remember, the Lightning opened the season with a resounding thud in a blowout home loss against the Crosby and Malkin-less Penguins. Now the Bolts will need to go forward without superstar Nikita Kucherov for an indefinite period of time. Here, we find Tampa Bay having gone 0-5, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 goals, the last five times it has come off consecutive road wins. The Bolts are also just 23-25 when coming off a one-goal victory over the last 2+ seasons, holding a minuscule 0.1-goal scoring advantage in that situation. Finally, they're 8-15 when checking in off an overtime win over that same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. As for the Panthers, they're off to a perfect 2-0 start and now find themselves in a situation where they average a solid 3.4 goals per game off a win over the last three seasons. They'll give the start to Spencer Knight in goal on Tuesday and I see that as a positive as I do think he has an opportunity to supplant veteran Sergei Bobrovsky as the starter at some point this season. Take Florida +1.5 goals (5*). |
|||||||
10-19-21 | Stars v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Stars have seen the 'under' cash in all three games so far this season while the Penguins have delivered 'over' results in all three of their games to date - despite playing without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 with the Penguins playing at home after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.0 goals. Additionally, the 'under' is 28-12 with the Stars having given up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of only 5.0 goals. Pittsburgh's home-opener totaled seven goals but featured only 46 combined shots on goal. The Pens allowed only 20 shots in the game. After giving up a whopping 73 shots on goal in their first two games, the Stars tightened things up allowing only 27 shots in a losing effort in Ottawa on Sunday. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
10-19-21 | Avalanche v. Capitals OVER 6 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. With Nathan MacKinnon ready to take the ice for the first time this season, we'll take a flyer on the 'over' as the Avalanche play their first road game of the season in Washington on Tuesday night. I think the Capitals are going to be involved in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season. Washington's blue-line anchors John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov aren't getting any younger and the Caps are only average between the pipes (Ilya Samsonov is expected to get his first start of the season tonight). In this spot, we'll note that the Caps have posted a 14-3 o/u record when coming off a game where three goals or less were scored over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here following Saturday's 2-1 home loss to the Lightning. That situation has produced an average total of 6.8 goals. Also note that the 'over' has gone 23-12 with the Capitals coming off consecutive home games, a spot in which they've averaged 3.6 goals with those games totaling an average of 6.7 goals over the last 2+ seasons. Even without MacKinnon on the ice, the Avs have scored seven goals through two games this season. They average a whopping 4.3 goals per game when coming off consecutive home games over the last two seasons. Take the over (5*). |
|||||||
10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams enter Game 3 of the ALCS riding five-game 'over' streaks and I don't believe those streaks are in jeopardy of ending here. Jose Uquidy will get his first start of the postseason for the Astros. While his overall numbers this season are solid, here he runs into a red hot Red Sox lineup, noting that he hasn't really been fooling anyone, topping out at six strikeouts in his last nine starts. I'll also point out that the 'over' has gone 12-4 when Urquidy starts with a posted total of between 8.5 and 10.0 runs, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 11.1 runs scored. Eduardo Rodriguez made two starts for the Red Sox in the ALDS but wasn't particularly sharp, allowing four earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. The Astros faced him twice during the regular season, plating 12 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings. You would have to go back six home starts - all the way to August 15th - to find the last time Rodriguez was involved in a game at Fenway Park that didn't reach at least nine total runs. He never looked all that comfortable pitching at home this season, posting a 5.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP while averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start. Neither bullpen is all that imposing. The Astros 'pen has converted just 19 saves while blowing 17 on the road this season. The Sox 'pen hasn't been much better at home, converting 21 saves while blowing 15. Note that the Boston relief corps has yet to convert a save in the playoffs while blowing three. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-18-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Kraken opened the season with consecutive high-scoring games - dropping a 4-3 decision in Las Vegas before picking up their first franchise victory by an identical 4-3 score in Nashville. Last time out we saw Seattle involved in a low-scoring affair as it fell 2-1 in overtime in Columbus. Here, I believe the stage is set for the Kraken to get involved in a back-and-forth, high-scoring game against the Flyers. Philadelphia rallied from a 4-2 deficit late in the third period to force overtime against the Canucks on Friday but ultimately fell in a shootout. Flyers goaltender Carter Hart picked up right where he left off last season, struggling mightily between the pipes. It's getting to the point now where it's difficult to envision any sort of 'quick fix' for Hart. The good news is, the Flyers do have plenty of offensive firepower, as we saw in Friday's comeback against the Canucks. Here, I'll note that Philadelphia has allowed a whopping 4.5 goals per game after scoring four goals or more in its previous game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.0 goals scored. The 'over' has also gone 13-5 the last 18 times the Flyers have played at home with the total set at 6.0 goals (excluding pushes), good for an average total of 7.3 goals scored in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5 | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England plus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This Patriots are in a terrific spot on Sunday as they return home to host the Cowboys who are coming off four straight wins, including a perfect 3-0 homestand. The last time we saw Dallas play on the road, it eked out a 20-17 win over the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Cowboys have only managed to split two road games this season, with both of those games decided by a field goal or less. Another close game should be in order on Sunday. New England was in a clear letdown spot last week on the road against the lowly Texans. Credit the Pats and rookie QB Mac Jones for pulling out a victory even if they didn't manage to cover the lofty pointspread. Here, we find Dallas a long-term loser at 39-59 ATS when playing on the road off a home victory, outscored by 1.4 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Pats are an impressive 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games as a home underdog, including a 1-0 ATS mark this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 points. Take New England (10*). |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -175 | 37-14 | Loss | -175 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland moneyline over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I think this play is more straight-forward than most are making it out to be. Yes, the Cardinals are the league's lone undefeated team but their wins have come against disappointing Tennessee and Minnesota squads, the lowly Jaguars, the Rams in a clear letdown spot off a win over the then-undefeated defending Super Bowl champion Bucs and the Niners who were giving rookie QB Trey Lance his first career start. Now the Cards roll into the Dawg Pound to face a Browns squad that's coming off a near-miss against the Chargers in Los Angeles last week. Cleveland is missing some key cogs, including RB Nick Chubb, but this one's more about the Browns defense. I look for them to harass Cards QB Kyler Murray all afternoon long and ultimately force a key second half turnover that turns the tide in this contest. Take Cleveland moneyline (6*). |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Texans v. Colts -10 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's no reason for the Colts to be down on themselves following an overtime loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football. If anything, they should bring positive momentum from that game and now find themselves in a smash spot against the Texans, who may not win another game this season (that's not a stretch). Houston fell just short at home against the Patriots last week - who were in a clear flat spot off their matchup with Tom Brady and the Bucs. Now the Texans go into Indianapolis without two key cogs on their offensive line in Justin Britt and Laremy Tunsil. The Colts offense has been quietly effective over the last two weeks, running fot 139 and 123 yards while QB Carson Wentz has come to life, completing 49-of-67 passes for 600 yards over that stretch. With one of the more underrated backfields in the entire NFL, the Colts have the ability to salt this game away should they build a considerable second half lead, as we expect. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Ravens keep finding ways to win and I don't expect the Chargers to be the ones to end their winning streak on Sunday afternoon. Here, we'll fade Los Angeles noting that it has gone a miserable 2-10 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its last game over the last three seasons. The Browns were set up on a tee for the Chargers last Sunday in Los Angeles yet they needed a fourth quarter rally to earn the win (and cover). We actually won with the Bolts in that contest. Meanwhile, the Ravens had no business winning against the Colts last Monday night but pulling out unlikely wins has been their M.O. this season and here they comfortably find themselves in the second game of a four-game homestand. QB Lamar Jackson is balling out right now and while the Chargers defense offers a considerable challenge, I think he'll be up for it after completing 37-of-43 passes for 437 yards on Monday night. While the talent is there, save for the Raiders and Washington Football Team, the Chargers haven't really been able to stop anyone this season. Take Baltimore (10*). |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Sean Murphy ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 56 m | Show |
11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 209 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
11-04-21 | Golden Knights v. Senators UNDER 6 | Top | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
11-04-21 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 37 m | Show | |
11-04-21 | Flyers v. Penguins -139 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
11-03-21 | Blues v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
11-03-21 | Hurricanes v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | 4-3 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
11-03-21 | Blazers -157 v. Cavs | 104-107 | Loss | -157 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
11-03-21 | Raptors v. Wizards -3 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
11-03-21 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 66.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
11-02-21 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 217 | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
11-02-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Astros | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
11-02-21 | Stars v. Jets -120 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
11-02-21 | Senators v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 53.5 | Top | 52-49 | Loss | -113 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
11-02-21 | Red Wings v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
11-02-21 | Ball State v. Akron UNDER 58.5 | 31-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs UNDER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
11-01-21 | Senators v. Blackhawks -120 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics -1 | Top | 128-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics OVER 216.5 | 128-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
11-01-21 | Capitals v. Lightning -140 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
10-31-21 | Astros -112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Pistons v. Nets OVER 214 | 91-117 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
10-31-21 | Canadiens v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Coyotes v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Eagles -179 v. Lions | 44-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
10-30-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 216.5 | 94-122 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
10-30-21 | Jets v. Sharks UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
10-30-21 | Devils v. Penguins -150 | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 29 h 29 m | Show | |
10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson OVER 47 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
10-30-21 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma -19 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
10-30-21 | Cincinnati -26 v. Tulane | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
10-29-21 | Cavs v. Lakers UNDER 220 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
10-29-21 | Kings v. Pelicans OVER 220 | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
10-29-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 102 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
10-29-21 | Calgary v. Ottawa OVER 42.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals OVER 49.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
10-28-21 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 220.5 | 122-91 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
10-28-21 | Avalanche -115 v. Blues | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
10-28-21 | South Florida v. East Carolina -9.5 | Top | 14-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10-27-21 | Cavs v. Clippers -8 | 92-79 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
10-27-21 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 218.5 | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10-27-21 | Bruins v. Panthers UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
10-26-21 | Jets v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
10-26-21 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218 | 110-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
10-26-21 | Rockets v. Mavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
10-26-21 | Sharks v. Predators UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
10-25-21 | Bucks v. Pacers OVER 229 | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
10-25-21 | Lightning v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
10-24-21 | Islanders v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
10-24-21 | Celtics -5 v. Rockets | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
10-24-21 | Lions v. Rams -16 | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 6 m | Show |
10-24-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins +2.5 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
10-23-21 | Canucks v. Seattle Kraken -112 | 4-2 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 30 m | Show | |
10-23-21 | Islanders v. Coyotes +1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -170 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
10-23-21 | Hurricanes -150 v. Blue Jackets | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 39 m | Show | |
10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
10-23-21 | Temple v. South Florida -2 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
10-23-21 | Wake Forest v. Army UNDER 53 | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 28 m | Show | |
10-22-21 | Washington -17.5 v. Arizona | 21-16 | Loss | -108 | 56 h 41 m | Show | |
10-22-21 | Oilers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
10-22-21 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 220.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
10-21-21 | San Jose State v. UNLV +5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 27 m | Show |
10-21-21 | Oilers v. Coyotes UNDER 6 | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
10-21-21 | Oilers v. Coyotes +1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
10-21-21 | Canucks v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
10-21-21 | Broncos +3 v. Browns | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10-21-21 | Ducks v. Jets UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 2-11 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
10-21-21 | Capitals -120 v. Devils | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
10-20-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
10-20-21 | Celtics v. Knicks -2 | Top | 134-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10-20-21 | Bruins -135 v. Flyers | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State OVER 61.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
10-20-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Red Sox | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
10-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers OVER 227 | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
10-19-21 | Ducks v. Oilers -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
10-19-21 | Jets v. Wild OVER 5.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
10-19-21 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10-19-21 | Panthers +1.5 v. Lightning | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
10-19-21 | Stars v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
10-19-21 | Avalanche v. Capitals OVER 6 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10-18-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5 | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -175 | 37-14 | Loss | -175 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
10-17-21 | Texans v. Colts -10 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |