Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-11-22 | Ravens +2.5 v. Steelers | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 71 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not buying the line move here as I'm not convinced it's a monumental downgrade from Lamar Jackson to Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the Ravens. Jackson has shown flashes of brilliance this season but as a whole, I don't feel he has been as unstoppable or dominant as we've come to expect. He's struggled to connect with his receivers and tight ends on deep passes in particular and while his presence certainly forces the hand of opposing defensive coordinators, I do think Huntley in the starting role bring a different set of challenges as well. Pittsburgh is riding high off consecutive wins but those came against the Colts and Falcons, two opponents that quite simply didn't match up well. It's a different story with the Ravens, and I think we're getting a bargain-basement price to back them in an underdog role here, thanks in large part to the fact they've dropped the cash in three consecutive games heading in. It's hard not to forget that the Ravens went into Pittsburgh without Jackson (RGIII started in his place) in December of 2020, were listed as an 11-point underdog and ultimately gave Pittsburgh all it could handle in a 19-14 loss. Here, I expect John Harbaugh to employ a similar gameplan with the Ravens leaning on their ground attack and defense to effectively shorten proceedings and give themselves a chance. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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12-10-22 | Hurricanes v. Islanders UNDER 6 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and New York at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the 'under' on Long Island on Saturday as the Hurricanes continue their long road trip against the Islanders. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 17-7 with the Canes seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 4.7 goals. The 'under' is also 20-7 with the Isles coming off consecutive games that totalled seven goals or more, which is also the situation here, over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of only 4.4 goals in that spot. Take the under (8*). |
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12-10-22 | Navy v. Army +2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Army plus the points over Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday. Even with a sixth win of the season on Saturday, Army still won't be going Bowling this season which is certainly disappointing. I actually don't mind the situation as it is, however, as there's no added pressure in a game where there's already more than enough in this annual stand-alone affair. Both teams come in hot from an ATS perspective with Navy having reeled off three consecutive ATS victories and Army riding a perfect 5-0 ATS run. What I really like about Army is the way it was able to effectively stamp out opposing passing games over the course of the season. I know what you're thinking, that means little against Navy's triple-option based attack (although the Midshipmen did pass more than usual this season, averaging 11 pass attempts per game). I do think it speaks to the strength in the Army secondary, with those defenders in the second and third level hard-hitters capable of moving up in the box and snuffing out big plays from the Midshipmen's ground game. Offensively, Army surges into this contest having rumbled for 275, 323 and 329 rushing yards over its last three games. The level of opposition it faced over that stretch undoubtedly had something to do with it but it's not as if Navy is a defensive powerhouse. Yes, the Midshipmen allowed just 3.1 yards per rush this season but that's largely due to the fact that teams generally only ran on them in obvious running situations. Instead, we saw Navy's opposition attack it through the air relentlessly, gaining a whopping 8.9 yards per pass attempt. Army can sling it a little bit, as it showed in a wild 41-38 loss to UTSA earlier in the season when it completed 13-of-18 passes for over 300 yards. Finally, we'll note that Navy took last year's meeting but hasn't won consecutive matchups with Army since 2014 and 2015. That was the tail-end of a long winning streak in the series that went all the way back to 2001. The previous time Navy won a game over Army (2019), it followed it up with a 15-0 loss the next year (2020). Take Army (8*). |
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12-10-22 | France v. England | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'draw' between France and England at 2 pm et on Saturday. With so little to choose from between these two tremendous squads, the 90-minute 'draw' is the only way I can play this quarter-final showdown on Saturday. Should either side fall behind, an equalizer will never be far off with both teams boasting the experience and scoring prowess to answer at any given moment. While one might think England has the advantage given it hasn't conceded a single goal in its last three matches while France hasn't recorded a clean sheet in any of its last five contests, the French are favored, albeit slightly, for a reason here. I have this one finishing all square at ones through 90 minutes, but I certainly prefer the value being offered with the 'draw' rather than going 'under' the total. Note that the last time these two countries met in a tournament fixture was at the 2012 Euros, when they played to a, you guessed it, 1-1 draw. Take the draw (8*). |
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12-09-22 | Washington v. Gonzaga OVER 149 | 60-77 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Friday. Off a stretch that saw it face Purdue, Xavier and Baylor in succession perhaps Gonzaga can be excused for an less-than-inspiring performance against Kent State last time out. Off consecutive 'under' results, I'm anticipating a much stronger offensive showing from the Bulldogs on Friday. Washington's opponents have shot a woeful 39.3% from the field this season. Some of that has to do with strong defensive play from the Huskies but part of it is simply related to luck. With that said, Washington has still allowed five of its last seven opponents to make good on 24 or more field goals. The Huskies have shown no ability, or interest to dictate their opponents' pace and I'm confident Gonzaga can take full advantage of that on Friday. For their part, the Bulldogs allowed 64 and 66 points in their last two games, despite those two opponents shooting sub-40% from the field. While Washington's offensive ceiling isn't all that high, its floor is at a solid level, noting that the Huskies have made good on 25 or more field goals in five of their last eight contests, held to a low-water mark of 62 points on the season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-09-22 | Knicks v. Hornets +4.5 | 121-102 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed fading the Knicks two nights ago as they caught a break with Dejounte Murray going down with an injury early for the Hawks in an eventual blowout win. Here, I don't think New York will be so fortunate as it looks for its third consecutive victory. Charlotte rides a three-game losing streak but it isn't playing all that poorly. The Hornets have actually delivered the cash in consecutive games and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests. Note also that they'll be seeking revenge for an earlier 134-131 loss in New York back in late October. New York is just 6-6 on the road this season where it has been outscored by an average margin of 1.6 points and I simply don't believe it has any business laying points here. Take Charlotte (8*). |
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12-09-22 | Brazil v. Croatia +1.5 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Croatia +1.5 goals over Brazil at 10 am et on Friday. I don't think we see Croatia - which was a finalist in the 2018 World Cup - go away quietly the way South Korea did at the hands of mighty Brazil in the knockout stage. Keep in mind, the Checkered Ones enter this match riding a 10-game undefeated streak and know how to keep the opposition in check with four of their last five contests staying 'under' 2.5 total goals. Croatia has proven to be incredible difficult to break down in this tournament with the foursome of Juranovic, Lovren, Gvardiol and Sosa rating out near the top in terms of defensive back lines. Keeper Dominik Livakovic is also coming off his best performance of the tournament in the knockout stage thriller against Japan. Brazil turned in its most dominant performance of the tournament in a rout of South Korea but now has nowhere to go but down in my opinion. I still feel it can be had in the back and with Croatia's Ivan Perisic coming off a 'turn back the clock' performance, he's the man to watch in this contest. Take Croatia +1.5 goals (8*). |
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12-08-22 | Nuggets -1 v. Blazers | 121-120 | Push | 0 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they look to snap a three-game skid and also avenge an earlier blowout loss to the Blazers this season. Denver has clamped down on its last two opponents, yielding just 81 and 72 field goal attempts but came away with nothing to show for it. The Nuggets most recent loss was particularly discouraging as they fell by a single point at home against Dallas in what should have been a terrific bounce-back spot. A lot of bettors got burned with Denver in that game and won't have much interest in backing it again here. Portland has knocked down 41 or 42 field goals in four straight games but has also gotten off 85 or more field goal attempts in each of those contests - a number I'm not convinced it will reach here. On the flip side, we've seen the Blazers relax a bit defensively of late, allowing four of its last six opponents to hoist up 89 or more FG attempts. In that type of environment, I believe the potential is there for the Nuggets to go off offensively in this one. Take Denver (8*). |
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12-08-22 | St. Thomas +7.5 v. Montana State | 65-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Thomas plus the points over Montana State at 9 pm et on Thursday. While Montana State has faced the considerably tougher schedule this season, St. Thomas has had a couple of true step-up games (against Creighton and Utah) as well and I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as the pointspread indicates. St. Thomas averages three more made field goals per contest on the same number as attempts per game as Montana State this season. It has made good on four more three-pointers per game on just four additional attempts. At the other end of the floor, St. Thomas has allowed the same number of made field goals on two additional attempts per game compared to Montana State. Both teams have seen their opponents make good on better than 72% of their free throw attempts, certainly not a sustainable trend. I realize this is fairly rudimentary handicapping but I think it works in this spot and with Montana State coming off consecutive ATS wins, matching its longest such streak of the season, I like the fade of the home side here. Take St. Thomas (8*). |
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12-08-22 | Colorado State v. Colorado UNDER 143.5 | 65-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and Colorado at 9 pm et on Thursday. Colorado has faced the 25th toughest schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom and while this matchup with Colorado State looks daunting when you consider the Rams have scored 80+ points in three straight and five of nine games this season, it's important to note that CSU has faced a cupcake schedule (311th toughest in the nation according to KenPom) and is certainly in line for some regression from the field having shot just shy of 50% on the campaign. Colorado has actually allowed just two more made field goals per game (25) compared to Colorado State this season. The Buffaloes have had to play keep-up much of the way, knocking down 26 field goals per contest (that's two fewer than CSU on average, on four more attempts per game). Both of these teams have seen the opposition make good on better than 70% of their free throw attempts - not a sustainable average in my opinion. This has generally been a series played in the 120's and 130's, although the two teams haven't met since the 2019-20 season. I believe this total will prove too high on Thursday. Take the under (8*). |
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12-08-22 | Senators +165 v. Stars | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Senators were a no-show against the Kings two nights ago (we won with Los Angeles in that game), falling behind 4-1 early and never recovering in a 5-2 defeat. That was the type of loss that's easy to move on from and I expect a far better performance from the underdog Sens in Dallas on Thursday. The common line of thinking here is that this is a layup bounce-back spot for the Stars off consecutive home losses. The reality is, that hasn't been the case over the last few seasons as Dallas checks in 2-5 the last seven times it has come off two or more home losses in a row. After scoring 25 goals over a six-game stretch the Stars were certainly in line for some regression and we saw that on Tuesday as they were shutout by a Leafs team missing a number of key contributors on the blue line. Look for Ottawa to be the team that bounces back on Thursday, noting that it has taken four straight meetings in this series including a 4-1 victory in Dallas last season. Take Ottawa (8*). |
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12-08-22 | Raiders -6 v. Rams | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We actually backed the injury-riddled Rams in Kansas City two weeks ago - a game in which they did sniff out an ATS and ultimately delivered a 'push' for most bettors. They followed that up with a loss but cover against the Seahawks last Sunday in a game that featured a misleading final score in my opinion. Were it not for Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker going down to injury early in that contest, I do think Seattle would have run up the score. Note that it scored touchdowns on two of its first three offensive drives before Walker was forced to exit the game and the Seahawks balance disappeared. This Rams defense is a mess without DTs Aaron Donald and A'Shawn Robinson, unable to generate much push or clog up the middle. The Raiders have precisely the type of offense that can expose the L.A. defense with RB Josh Jacobs running as well as anyone in the league, even if he is a little nicked-up (few players are 100% healthy at this stage of the season). With corner Jalen Ramsey having a miserable time on an island on this Rams defense, Raiders WR Davante Adams figures to smash in this spot. In last Sunday's game, Seahawks WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf went off, hauling in a combined 17 catches for 255 yards and two scores. The sky is the limit for Adams here. On the flip side, the Raiders defense is rounding into form at the right time with the duo of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby terrorizing opposing offensive lines. Of course, the Rams boast one of the league's worst o-lines with QB John Wolford absorbing four sacks last week and now dealing with a neck injury, potentially leaving this game in the hands of newly-signed QB Baker Mayfield, who is with his third different team since last season and has had about two days to learn the playbook. While I don't love backing a team that has reeled off three consecutive ATS wins at this stage of the season, I feel we can confidently back the Raiders against a Rams squad that is already looking ahead to next year. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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12-08-22 | Kings +155 v. Maple Leafs | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Kings two nights ago in Ottawa but missed fading the Leafs in their 4-0 victory in Dallas on the same night. Here, we'll take another shot at fading Toronto as it returns home to host Los Angeles on Thursday. The Leafs have actually dropped consecutive meetings with the Kings, including a 5-1 loss on home ice as a favorite priced well north of -200 last season. I'm higher on Los Angeles than most, realizing that it has plenty of warts defensively but does have considerable upside from an offensive standpoint. I do like the way the Kings forwards match up here against a Leafs squad that is still missing a number of stalwarts on the blue line due to injury. While it's always a considerable risk fading a team as offensively gifted as the Leafs, I like the letdown spot here returning home off a shutout victory in Dallas. Interestingly, Toronto has averaged just 2.9 goals per game at home this season compared to its season scoring average of 3.1 gpg. The Kings are a respectable 7-7 (+0.3 net games from a betting perspective) on the road. I think placing goaltender Cal Petersen on waivers was a wake-up call for the entire team last week and his replacement Pheonix Copley turned in a terrific performance between the pipes two nights ago. It's likely Jonathan Quick in goal tonight but he was also in goal for that aforementioned 5-1 win here in Toronto last season. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-07-22 | Canucks v. Sharks +110 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose over Vancouver at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll gladly fade the favored Canucks off their ridiculous come-from-behind win over the Canadiens on Monday. Vancouver rallied from four goals down and then again after trailing 6-5 with just minutes remaining in the third period in an eventual overtime win. Credit the Canucks for never quitting in that game but there's no question the Habs served it up on a silver platter after jumping ahead 4-0 early. Here, I don't expect the Sharks to be as forgiving as they look to bounce back from three straight losses. Interestingly, San Jose's most recent home game came against these same Canucks back on November 27th - a game it lost by a 4-3 score. Here, we'll note that the Sharks have gone 7-2 in their last nine games after losing consecutive contests by three goals or more, which is the situation here, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. Having dropped six straight meetings in this series, look for the revenge-minded Sharks to finally put one over on the Canucks on Wednesday. Take San Jose (8*). |
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12-07-22 | Rangers +135 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-1 | Win | 135 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers 6-4 victory over the Blues on Monday was the type of win that can provide some positive momentum for a team as it heads out on the road for a brief two-game trip. New York appeared headed for its third straight loss before a furious third period rally that saw it score three unanswered goals. That marked the first time in seven games the Blueshirts found the back of the net more than three times. The Golden Knights persevered in a 4-3 shootout win in Boston on Monday. That marked their second straight victory and wrapped up a 3-1 road trip. I think they'll be in tough here against a Rangers squad that has gone 7-5 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average. Note that New York is an incredible 12-2 in its last 14 games after losing five or six of its last seven contests, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation. The Knights are a woeful 2-7 in their last nine home games after scoring three or more goals in four consecutive games, outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. Take New York (10*). |
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12-07-22 | Hawks +2 v. Knicks | Top | 89-113 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I like the setup for this play on Wednesday as the Hawks come off a disappointing home loss as a six-point favorite against the Thunder last time out while the Knicks check in off an outright underdog win over the Cavs on their home floor on Sunday. That was an easy game for New York to get up for after it got throttled at home just over 24 hours earlier against the Mavericks. I suspect it will be a little tougher for the Knicks here, noting that they're still just 3-6 SU and ATS over their last nine contests. Here, we'll note also that the Knicks are 16-22 ATS when coming off an outright underdog win over the last three seasons while the Hawks are 20-17 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the same stretch. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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12-07-22 | Brown v. Rhode Island UNDER 131 | 59-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brown and Rhode Island at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Brown should have Rhode Island's undivided attention for this game as the Bears come off four straight wins, shooting 52% or better from the field in their last two contests. Keep in mind, the Rams are coming off an 88-74 loss to Providence in which the Friars shot a blistering 54% from the field. There have essentially been three games where Rhode Island's opponents have shot the lights out this season, that most recent affair against Providence being one of them. Apart from that, the Rams have been tough defensively and I do think this is a matchup they can handle. Both teams sit around the middle of the pack in terms of tempo with Rhode Island checking in 184th and Brown just behind at 187th. Playing at home, I do think we see the Rams dictate the pace here and they certainly won't want to let Brown get out and run after getting boat-raced by Providence last time out (the Friars got off 63 field goal attempts in that game - only the second time Rhode Island allowed an opponent to hoist up more than 56 FG attempts this season). Take the under (8*). |
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12-07-22 | Cornell v. Miami-FL -15.5 | 105-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Wednesday CBB Free play. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Cornell at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I'm always on the lookout for 'shock to the system' type of situations and that's precisely what we have here as Cornell puts its seven-game winning streak on the line against Miami. The Big Red check in 7-1 on the season but they've faced a cupcake schedule (333rd in the nation in strength of schedule according to KenPom). Cornell has been shooting the lights out with little need to slow things down and make life difficult for opposing offenses. That should come back to bite it here as Miami clamps down defensively while also making the most of its opportunities at the offensive end of the floor. Take Miami. |
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12-06-22 | Maple Leafs v. Stars +101 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Toronto at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Maple Leafs finally lost a game on Saturday as they fell by a 3-2 score in Tampa. Meanwhile, the Stars check in off a disappointing 6-5 home loss against the Wild on Sunday - a game that saw them stage a furious rally but ultimately come away with just a single point. There was no shame in that shootout defeat, however, and Dallas remains a solid 7-5 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 1.3 goals. The Leafs were bound to come back to Earth following an extended winning run and I don't like the spot for them here as they come off a two-day layoff following Saturday's defeat, not to mention the fact that they'll be taking the ice for only the second time in the last six days. The 'rest vs. rust' discussion comes into play (especially at this early stage of the season) and given how well Toronto had been playing, I believe it could hit a bit of a lull here. This should be a game the Stars have had circled after dropping a 3-2 decision in Toronto back in October. Dallas didn't play particularly well in that contest but was still right there in the end, which should provide some confident that it can gain an ounce of revenge here at home. Take Dallas (8*). |
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12-06-22 | Kings v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams have met three times since the start of last season, including a 3-2 Senators victory in Los Angeles just over a week ago. Of those three games, only one came all that close to going 'over' the total and that was thanks only to an empty-net goal from the Kings in a 4-2 win last season. The lone matchup between them here in Ottawa since the start of last season resulted in a 2-0 Los Angeles victory. The Sens did explode for five goals in their most recent contest but that came against the lowly Sharks. In fact, the only other occasion where Ottawa scored more than three goals over its last eight games came against another of the league's worst teams in the Ducks. Los Angeles will undoubtedly be looking to tighten things up here off a 1-3 homestand. Noting that the 'under' is 25-13 with an average total of just 5.5 goals scored when the Sens play at home after their previous contest totalled seven or more goals, we'll confidently back the 'under' here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-06-22 | Kings +100 v. Senators | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I believe the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this matchup on Tuesday night in Ottawa. The Kings head out on the road after a disappointing 1-3 homestand that started with a 3-2 loss to these same Senators a little over a week ago. That was a successful revenge trip to Los Angeles after the Sens had dropped both meetings with the Kings last season, including a 2-0 defeat here in Ottawa. I believe they'll find the going a little tougher this time around as the Kings look to get this eastern road swing off to a positive start. Here, we'll note that Los Angeles is 24-18 after losing two of its previous three games over the last two seasons and 15-11 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the same stretch. Better still, the Kings are 22-12 after giving up three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons and have given up just 2.7 goals per contest after allowing four or more goals in their previous game over the same stretch (40-game sample size), outscoring the opposition by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sens are a woeful 3-14 in their last 17 home games after scoring three goals or more in consecutive contests, outscored by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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12-06-22 | Yale +6.5 v. Butler | 61-71 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale plus the points over Butler at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel these two teams are mirror images of one another with the potential for the case to be made for Yale to be the slightly superior team at both ends of the floor, yet here we are catching more than a handful of points with the visiting Bulldogs. Yale does come off a win but non-cover against Stony Brook last time out but there's not much to complain about as it had previously a perfect six-for-six covering in line games this season. Butler comes off consecutive games shooting better than 50% from the field but should be held in check by a Yale defense that has allowed an average of just 19 made field goals on 55 attempts this season. By contrast, Butler has yielded seven more made field goals on only four additional attempts per game this season. While I realize Butler has faced the tougher schedule, I'm not convinced the lofty pointspread is warranted here. Additionally, Butler has made good on just shy of 74% of its free throw attempts this season, not a sustainable percentage in my opinion, while also sending its opponents to the line only 11 times per contest, also unsustainable. Take Yale (8*). |
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12-06-22 | Switzerland +0.5 v. Portugal | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Switzerland +0.5 goals over Portugal at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a flyer on Switzerland grabbing a half-goal against Portugal here as I believe there's a considerably better than 50/50 chance that this one is all-level (or the Swiss leading) after 90 minutes. Portugal has impressed in the tournament so far but it's not as if it has been blowing the doors off the opposition. Switzerland has been down this road before, giving tougher opponents all they can handle in previous tournament. In other words, I don't believe the stage is too big for the Swiss here. They were in a pressure-packed situation against Serbia last Friday and came through with flying colours. I believe both sides will ultimately prove difficult to break down in this one, with a 1-1 result after 90 minutes a quite likely outcome. The status of Swiss keeper Yann Sommer will obviously be important to keep an eye on leading up to the match. If he's able to man the goal, I would consider sprinkling a little on the Swiss three-way moneyline as well here. Take Switzerland +0.5 goals (8*). |
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12-06-22 | Spain v. Morocco +1 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
Knockout Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Morocco +1 goal over Spain at 10 am et on Tuesday. I think a lot of casual bettors saw all they needed from Spain in its boot-stomping 7-0 rout of Costa Rica two weeks ago. Since then, the Spaniards have managed a draw against Germany and a defeat at the hands of Japan to ultimately finish second in their group, leading to a date with upstart Morocco in the knockout stage on Tuesday. This is likely the matchup that Spain actually wanted - that was evident in its late game activity when trailing against Japan last time out. I do think this could be a 'be careful what you wish for' situation, however, as Morocco can give it trouble in my opinion. Here, we'll note that Morocco in now undefeated in its last nine matches across all competitions. It has successfully put the opposition on its back foot more often than not, striking first in six of its last eight contests. So again, its short-term success in this tournament hasn't been a fluke by any means. Of course, facing Spain is no easy task as it has scored first in five consecutive matches. With that being said, this is a side that has only managed to come away victorious in five of its last 10 contests overall with three of those victories coming by more than a single goal. I believe there's a good chance we see these two sides all square through 90 minutes, similar to what we saw from Japan and Croatia yesterday. But rather than play the 'draw' we'll give due respect to Morocco and catch a little insurance in the process. Take Morocco +1 goal (8*). |
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12-05-22 | Canadiens +175 v. Canucks | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal over Vancouver at 10:35 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Coyotes in Vancouver on Saturday as they blew a 2-1 third period lead in an eventual overtime loss (on a Canucks power play goal). Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well fading the Canucks as a big favorite again, this time against the Montreal Canadiens, who will be looking to bounce back from a 5-3 loss to the red hot Oilers in Edmonton on Saturday. Montreal continues to play competitive hockey, 7-5 over its last 12 games including a 2-1 upset win in Calgary to open its current road trip. The Canadiens took the first meeting between these two teams this season and it wasn't particularly close (Montreal won 5-2). That game was played in Montreal but the Habs have also held their own here in Vancouver over the years, splitting the last six matchups while outscoring the Canucks by an average margin of 4-3. Take Montreal (8*). |
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12-05-22 | Pacers v. Warriors OVER 236 | 112-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams enter Monday's game trending in opposite directions with the Pacers having lost three games in a row both SU and ATS and the Warriors coming off consecutive victories and five wins in their last six contests, also both SU and ATS. Both teams come off 'under' results last time out, and we're starting to see this astronomical total come down a bit. I don't believe the move is warranted. The Pacers check in having knocked down 40+ field goals in four straight games. They're certainly getting their opportunities, hoisting up 94, 105, 100, 92 and 91 field goal attempts over their last five games. The problem is, their defense has been non-existent, allowing six of their last seven opponents to knock down 42 or more field goals. Teams are bullying them around and that's not likely to change against the red hot Warriors on Monday. Golden State is rolling right now, making good on 42+ field goals in six consecutive games. On the flip side, it hasn't shown much interest in slowing down the opposition, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in six of its last eight contests. Expect a track meet on Monday in San Francisco. Take the over (8*). |
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12-05-22 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Flames | 2-3 | Win | 110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I'm still not buying what the Flames are selling, even after a lopsided win over the Capitals on Saturday. Remember, we cashed a ticket fading Calgary with another puck-line underdog in the Canadiens (Montreal won that game 2-1) last week. I believe the Flames are ripe for the picking again here as they host a Coyotes team desperate for a win off four consecutive losses, including a tough 3-2 overtime defeat in Vancouver on Saturday. Here, we'll note that Calgary is just 5-9 the last 14 times it has played at home after scoring five or more goals in its previous game, outscored by 0.1 goals on average in that spot. Similarly, the Flames are a long-term 58-62, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 0.1 goals when playing at home after allowing two goals or fewer in three consecutive games, as is also the case here. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (8*). |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 41.5 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll stick with what works here and call for another low-scoring start between the Saints and Buccaneers on Monday night in Tampa. The first time these two teams met this season they combined to score three, yes three, first half points (New Orleans led 3-0 at the break). In fact, the first half 'under' has gone an incredible 10-1 in all Bucs games this season with the only outlier being a wild, high-scoring affair against the Chiefs in Week 4. New Orleans has scored a grand total of 23 first half points in its last four games combined. You would have to go back six games to find the last time it allowed more than 14 points in the first half and that's only happened three times in 12 games so far this season. As for Tampa Bay, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time it put up more than 14 first half points. In fact, it has been held to 10 or fewer first half points in four of its last five contests. Alvin Kamara is one of the Saints lone weapons on offense and he faces a tough matchup here given the fact that the Bucs have all but stamped out opposing running backs, both on the ground and through the air this season. Only one team has allowed fewer catches to opposing running backs, which is obviously Kamara's bread-and-butter. While the Bucs offense showed signs of life last week in Cleveland, this is still very much an under-achieving group facing a revenge-minded Saints squad on Monday. Tom Brady has posted unremarkable results in three of five career matchups against Dennis Allen-coached defenses and just lost one of his best offensive linemen in Tristan Wirfs to an ankle injury. We'll play the first half 'under' only in this spot given the Saints could turn to QB Jameis Winston for a spark against his old team should Andy Dalton struggle early on. Take the first half under (10*). |
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12-05-22 | South Korea +1.5 v. Brazil | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Korea +1.5 goals over Brazil at 2 pm et on Monday. While it faces a considerable challenge in this contest, I'm not going to write off South Korea just yet. Yes, Brazil entered as the tournament favorites and despite the stunning loss to Cameroon at the end of group stage play we haven't really seen anything to indicate it should be knocked from its pedestal. However, we're catching an insurance goal here, and also being offered a plus-money return. South Korea has produced some thrilling moments already in this tournament, needing a victory over Portugal, and getting it after trailing 1-0 to advance in its final match of the group stage. I don't expect it to back down here. I actually like the fact that it was severely outclassed when these two teams met back in June (Brazil won that contest 5-1). Adjustments are obviously necessary and I'm confident we'll see those adjustments pay dividends for South Korea. Take South Korea +1.5 goals (8*). |
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12-05-22 | Croatia v. Japan +0.5 | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Japan +0.5 goals over Croatia at 10 am et on Monday. We've seen a straight-forward and rather uneventful first four matches in the knockout round of this tournament but I expect that to change on Monday. First on the card is World Cup 2018 finalist Croatia taking on Japan in a favored role. I don't believe there's much separating these two squads and in a match that projects to be very low-scoring (the standard total is set at 2.0), I'm confident the Samurai Blue can keep proceedings level through 90 minutes. Croatia has of course been here before and while it has gone undefeated through three matches in this tournament, I haven't been overly impressed, with its lone victory coming off a Canadian squad that wasn't necessarily ready for the big stage. In its other two matches, Croatia failed to find the back of the net and I think it could be hard-pressed to do so again here. Japan has failed to record a clean sheet in any of its last four matches but there's comfort in the fact that it yielded just a single goal in all four of those contests. Take Japan +0.5 goals (8*). |
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12-05-22 | Croatia v. Japan UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Japan and Croatia at 10 am et on Monday. With little separating these two squads and both proving able to keep their opponents' on their back foot in this tournament, I'm expecting goals to come at a premium in their knockout stage fixture on Monday. Japan has gone its last four matches without recording a clean sheet but it didn't give up more than a single goal on any occasion over that stretch. The fact that it held Germany and Spain each to a goal in the group stage of the tournament was certainly encouraging. Croatia reached the final at World Cup 2018 and a similar path isn't out of the question here following an undefeated run through the group stage. However, it's not always pretty (it was held off the scoresheet in two of three group stage matches) and I believe it will have a difficult time breaking through against Japan as well. Even if it does, it has the capability and interest in parking the bus from there. I believe a 0-0 or 1-0 scoreline through 90 minutes is well within the realm of possibility here. Take the under (8*). |
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12-04-22 | Colts +10.5 v. Cowboys | 19-54 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The Colts just got upset at home against the Steelers on Monday Night Football and I think the knee-jerk reaction from most is to fade them again on a short week on the road against the mighty Cowboys in Dallas. Dallas bettors certainly felt wronged thanks to the Giants 'meaningless' touchdown in the final seconds on Thanksgiving, ultimately giving New York the ATS cover. Keep in mind, Indianapolis had gone a perfect 2-0 ATS in controversial coaching hire's first two games prior to Monday's setback. It's not as if the Colts are bereft of talent and I believe they have the personnel in place to effectively shorten this game - precisely what you want from an underdog side catching double-digits on the road. For the Cowboys, I can't help but feel they've reached a lull in their schedule with this game followed by a home date with the lowly Texans and a trip to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. Prior to this, the 'Boys had gone up against the Packers and Vikings on the road and the division-rival Giants on Thanksgiving over a three-game stretch. Noting that Dallas is just 9-12 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 25 points or more in four consecutive games while the Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests off an outright loss as a favorite, we'll confidently back Indy here. Take Indianapolis (8*). |
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12-04-22 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 41 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Seahawks overtime loss to the Raiders last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they hit the road to face the down-trodden Rams on Sunday in Los Angeles. I'm not one bit worried about the Seahawks offense. They should go off against a Rams defense that is now missing all-world DT Aaron Donald among others. Meanwhile, Los Angeles will give the start to QB John Wolford - his first start since Week 10 against Arizona. Head coach Sean McVay has indicated that Wolford gives them a better chance to 'run their offense' given his experience over rookie Bryce Perkins, who was largely ineffective against the Chiefs last week. I believe 'running their offense' will involve throwing the football more, noting that the Rams had 37 pass attempts in Wolford's last start. The Seahawks defense can certainly be had, as we saw in last week's shootout loss against the Raiders. Considering we saw totals of 47.5 and 53.5 when the Seahawks and Rams matched up last year, I believe this total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (8*). |
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12-04-22 | Senegal v. England | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'draw' between Senegal and England at 2 pm et on Sunday. I think there's a good chance we see this one go to penalties but will simply call for the 'draw' in the first 90 minutes as there's little to choose between these two sides. England has impressed at times through the Group Stage of this tournament but it's not as if it enters on an extended run, having only gone undefeated in its last four matches. Senegal should enter with confidence knowing that it has been 'first to score' in eight of its last nine contests, having suffered just one defeat in its last six matches across all competitions. There's every reason for this to be a cagey affair with neither squad willing to give an inch. I just don't think this one is as straight-forward as most believe as Senegal has always proven to be a 'tough out' and will have the element of surprise working in its favor here, with England seeing it for the first time. Note that the Three Lions have been all square after 90 minutes in four of their last eight contests overall. Take the draw (8*). |
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12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential as the Texans look to avenge last year's 31-21 loss to the Browns. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in last year's meeting but I don't believe the move is warranted. It has everything to do with the fact that the Texans have been involved in a string of relatively low-scoring games with the 'under' cashing in each of their last three contests. The Browns posted an 'under' result last week as well as they pulled out a 23-17 overtime win over the Bucs. Here, Cleveland's offense figures to get a boost from the return of QB Deshaun Watson. While Watson is dealing with returning from a long layoff, he draws an ideal matchup against a Texans defense that has seen things go from bad to worse. Houston checks in having allowed 29, 24, 23 and 30 points over its last four games, getting ethered by both the pass and the run. The Browns held up alright defensively on paper last week against the Bucs, but this is still a vulnerable unit that doesn't do anything particularly well. The Texans will give QB Kyle Allen another start in place of an ineffective Davis Mills. Allen was at least in sync with WR Nico Collins last Sunday, hitting him on six of nine targets. WR Brandin Cooks is expected to miss this game but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he's been virtually invisible this season. RB Dameon Pierce remains the focal point of the Texans offense and he should bounce back with a full workload after being taken out of the gameplan thanks to Houston trailing big early last week in Miami. The Browns have been touched up for 4.8 yards per rush attempt this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans +8 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
AFC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a game that the Texans have likely been waiting for just as long as the Browns have as Cleveland gives former-Texan Deshaun Watson his long-awaited first start with his new team following a long suspension. This is a prime letdown spot for Cleveland after it pulled out an improbable 23-17 overtime win over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last Sunday. I'm not ready to start believing in this 4-7 team just yet, however, noting they had lost consecutive games by a combined margin of 30 points prior to that upset victory. Cleveland has won just once on the road this season and that victory came by only two points in Carolina way back in Week 1. Here, the Browns are laying more than a touchdown. Houston is riding a season-high six-game losing streak and has dropped the cash in a season-high three consecutive games as well. I do feel that QB Kyle Allen gives them a better chance to win than Davis Mills at this point. The reality is the offense should run through RB Dameon Pierce and he figures to eat against a Browns defense that has struggled mightily against the run this season. Note that this is also a 'revenge game' for Houston after it dropped a 31-21 decision in Cleveland last year. There are very few spots where I would recommend backing the Texans the rest of the way, but this just happens to be one of them. Take Houston (10*). |
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12-04-22 | Packers -4 v. Bears | 28-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. As bad as things have gone for the Packers this season, they can take solace in the fact that they're still better than the Bears, and by a wide margin in my opinion. Green Bay draws Chicago in a smash spot here. The Bears might have QB Justin Fields back but how effective he can be remains to be seen. His supporting cast should be downgraded with WR Darnell Mooney now sidelined. The Packers figure to control proceedings from the get-go with an emerging offense led by WR Christian Watson, who is finally evolving into a downfield threat. RB Aaron Jones is in line for a massive bounce-back performance here against a Bears defense that can't stop, or even slow opposing ground attacks since dealing away much of its talent prior to the trade deadline. There haven't been a lot of feel-good moments for Packers fans this season but this will be one of them. Take Green Bay (8*). |
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12-04-22 | Commanders v. Giants +2.5 | Top | 20-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Commanders have won three games in a row to climb into the playoff conversation in the NFC. I expect a letdown here, however, as they hit the road to face the Giants on Sunday. Washington has benefited from a 7-3 turnover margin in its favor over its last three contests. Here, I can't help but feel we'll see the Giants wreak havoc defensively against Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke, who I do feel has been walking the thin line between success and failure over the last few games. Getting back Evan Neal on the offensive line should pay immediate dividends for Giants RB Saquon Barkley, who has admittedly struggled in recent weeks. Once again, not much will be asked of QB Daniel Jones. The hope here is that he's tasked with playing with a lead rather than from behind as we saw last week against Dallas. Note that Washington is a long-term loser in the role of favorite, going 70-103 ATS. Meanwhile, New York has delivered the cash 11 of the last 13 times it has come off a Thursday game, as is the case here. Take New York (10*). |
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12-03-22 | Coyotes +181 v. Canucks | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Canucks continue to struggle, already 0-2 on their current homestand off blowout losses to the Capitals and Panthers. While a matchup with the lowly Coyotes would appear to be the cure for what ails them, I'm not convinced that will prove to be the case on Saturday night. Arizona pulled off a 4-0 stunner in Carolina just over a week ago but has dropped three in a row on the road since. The Coyotes do at least continue to score with consistency, having put up at least three goals in five consecutive games. After dropping all three meetings in this series last season by a combined 17-3 score, I can't help but feel the Coyotes have had this matchup circled and I look for them to take advantage of the Canucks playing some of their worst hockey. Take Arizona (8*). |
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12-03-22 | Wichita State +7.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Wichita State plus the points over Kansas State at 9 pm et on Saturday. Kansas State took last year's matchup between these two teams by six points in what turned out to be a sloppy affair with both squads shooting worse than 36% from the field. In what projects to be another relatively low-scoring contest, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Shockers is the right decision. Both teams enter this game off a loss and in the case of Kansas State, it was its first defeat of the young season. I'm not convinced the Wildcats are quite as good as their record indicates. Note that Kansas State is allowing just one fewer made field goal per contest compared to Wichita State this season, despite yielding 12 fewer field goal attempts. In a similar vein, the Wildcats are giving up two fewer made threes per game, but that's on 10 fewer three-point attempts from the opposition. Noting that Wichita State's opponents have made good on just shy of 78% of their free throw attempts this season, there's reason to believe we see some regression to the mean in that department moving forward. Likewise, Kansas State checks in knocking down better than 79% of its free throw attempts - again, some regression is almost certainly in order in that regard. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as is indicated by the current pointspread, and I don't love the scheduling spot for Kansas State here as it returns home for the first time in over two weeks. Wichita State's lone previous road test went its way as it won by three points as a four-point underdog at Richmond back in mid-November. Take Wichita State (10*). |
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12-03-22 | Magic +11 v. Raptors | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Magic have dropped the cash in consecutive games since we successfully backed them on Monday in Brooklyn. Here, I do look for them to give the reeling Raptors a run. Toronto is coming off consecutive road defeats in New Orleans and Brooklyn. The Raptors aren't playing with a great deal of pace right now and that makes it difficult to cover lofty pointspreads such as the one we're looking at on Saturday. While Orlando is struggling, it has managed to hold four of its last five opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite getting off only 81 field goal attempts themselves last night, the Magic did manage to knock down 40 of them against a tough opponent in the Cavaliers. Meanwhile, Toronto checks in having made good on 38 or fewer field goals in four of its last five contests. Take Orlando (8*). |
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12-03-22 | Fresno State v. Boise State UNDER 55 | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Boise State at 4 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday afternoon as Fresno State battles Boise State for the Mountain West Conference championship. Fresno State has been building toward this game, seemingly improving defensively with each passing week, going from 30 points allowed against UNLV on November 11th to just 14 and 0 over the next two games against Nevada and Wyoming, respectively. Boise State did put up 42 points in last week's rout of Utah State but it isn't the offensive juggernaut it once was. You can be sure the Broncos will exercise some caution offensively here as Fresno State has been very opportunistic on defense, collecting five turnovers in the last two games combined and 11 over its last five contests. Noting that Boise State has completed more than 20 passes only twice in 12 games this season, topping out at 34 pass attempts over its last 11 games, it's unlikely we'll see the Broncos slinging it all over the field here. It's a different story for the Jake Haener-led Fresno State offense as it is pass-happy to say the least. With that being said, Boise State should match up well in that regard, noting that it has allowed 20+ pass completions and 300+ passing yards only twice this season, including last week against Utah State in a game where the Aggies could muster 'only' 23 points. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 60 points in a Boise State blowout earlier this season. I do think the Bulldogs have improved defensively since then and a more tightly-contested affair should lend itself to a lower-scoring contest as well this time around. Considering the closing total for that first matchup was 45.5, the case can certainly be made that we're working with an inflated number here. Take the under (8*). |
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12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Troy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We got precisely the results we wanted out of both of these teams over the last couple of games to set us up exceptionally well with the 'under' in this Sun Belt Conference Championship matchup on Saturday. Both teams saw their last two contests go 'over' the total, not only that, but both were turnover-prone in their respective regular season finale, leading them to perhaps approach this game with a little more caution than they might have otherwise. For Coastal Carolina, there's certainly reason to go ultra-conservative on offense in this game with QB Jarrett Guest struggling since taking over for NFL prospect Grayson McCall. Guest was directly responsible for two turnovers in each of the last two games (his two starts since McCall went down with a season-ending injury). Facing an opportunistic and perennially-tough Troy defense here, the Chanticleers won't want to leave anything to chance, perhaps putting this game largely in the hands of their defense (which is in line for a strong bounce-back effort after a poor performance against James Madison last week). Troy hung 48 points on the scoreboard in last week's rout of hapless Arkansas State. Keep in mind, however, that the Trojans actually didn't reach the end zone for a second time in that game until there were less than five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Like Guest, Troy QB Gunnar Watson has also been mistake-prone tossing an interception to go along with a lost fumble in last week's contest. The Trojans, like the Chanticleers, want to run the football, but will be running into a Coastal Carolina defense that has held up reasonably well against the run this season, allowing 4.0 yards per rush overall and 3.7 away from home. Down the stretch the Chanticleers stiffened up against opposing ground attacks, yielding fewer than 90 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Coastal Carolina has put up 36, 42 and 35 points in winning the last three meetings in this series but they didn't match up in the regular season this year, and we're obviously talking about much different Chanticleers squads, certainly in those games with McCall at the helm of the offense. Noting that Troy has held seven straight opponents to fewer than 20 points but also finds itself in a letdown of sorts offensively off its highest-scoring performance of the season, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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12-03-22 | United States v. Netherlands | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'draw' (90 minutes) between the USA and Netherlands at 10 am et on Saturday. I'm willing to take a shot at this match being all square after 90 minutes as I don't see either side giving an inch in an intriguing knockout stage contest on Saturday. The Americans have certainly impressed to this point of the tournament and I don't believe this matchup is too big for them. The Dutch came into the tournament dealing with some key players banged up and now they're dealing with an illness that's running through their locker room as well. We've seen some uneven play from them to this point - the talent is unquestionably there but finding goals has proven to be a chore. Rather than backing the USA +0.5 goals, we'll go for the bigger payoff here, giving the Netherlands due respect as they do enter this contest riding an 18-match undefeated streak across all competitions. With goals likely tough to come by given the relatively low projected total, we'll take a flyer on the 'draw' here. Take the draw (8*). |
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12-02-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 233 | Top | 117-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score 239 points as, you guessed it, the Spurs lost and failed to cover, currently mired in a seven-game ATS losing streak. You would have to go back three games to find the last time a San Antonio game stayed 'under' the total while the Pelicans check in off an 'over' result themselves and have played to the 'under' just once in their last four contests. I'll go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we're dealing with a higher posted total than we saw when these teams met on November 23rd. Prior to their last game on Wednesday in Oklahoma City, the Spurs had been doing a good job of at least limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing 85 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight contests. That changed on Wednesday as they yielded 94 FG attempts in the Thunder's come-from-behind victory. I'll chalk that up as a 'game-script' related performance as the Thunder pushed the pace due to the fact they were trailing most of the way. Here, the Pelicans should be able to control proceedings and we'll note that they check in having hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. San Antonio's last two opponents have 'shot the lights out' as I like to say, but that actually sets the 'under' up well here, noting that the 'under' has gone 19-8 the last 27 times the Spurs previous two opponents shot 50% or better from the field, resulting in an average total of 221.7 points in that situation. The Pelicans also saw their most recent opponent shoot well, with the Raptors knocking down just shy of 48% of their FG attempts against them on Wednesday. Keep in mind, New Orleans is just one game removed from limiting the Thunder to 34-of-92 (37%) shooting in a game that totalled 'only' 206 points. Finally, I'll note that the Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram again on Friday as he deals with a toe injury. He contributed 17 points and added 10 assists the last time these two teams met. Meanwhile, the Spurs are dealing with a number of key injuries. Of note, Doug McDermott, currently listed as questionable to play on Friday, poured in 21 points when these two teams matched up last week. Take the under (10*). |
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12-02-22 | Utah +2.5 v. USC | Top | 47-24 | Win | 103 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over USC at 8 pm et on Friday. USC has every reason to be the more 'motivated' team ahead of this one. After all, it currently resides in the fourth and final spot in the College Football Playoff picture and will be looking to avenge its lone previous loss this season. Motivation only takes you so far, however, and I'm a believer that it shouldn't really play a role in handicapping as it's rarely lost on the betting marketplace. I'll grab the points with Utah here as it looks to defend its Pac-12 Championship and play as spoiler to USC's national title hopes at the same time. The Utes should be nice and warmed up for this contest after shredding through Colorado by a 63-21 score last Saturday. Meanwhile, the Trojans are coming off a win (and cover) in their annual showdown with Notre Dame - their third consecutive ATS victory. We'll back the better defense while also fading the Heisman Trophy candidate in USC QB Caleb Williams. Here, we'll note that USC is just 37-58 ATS in its last 95 games played away from home off consecutive victories and a woeful 7-18 ATS in its last 25 December games. Take Utah (10*). |
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12-02-22 | Campbell v. East Carolina OVER 133.5 | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Campbell and East Carolina at 7 pm et on Friday. East Carolina checks into this game off back-to-back losses, held under 70 points in both contests after opening the season by scoring 75+ points in six straight games. Pirates opponents have been 'filling it up' so far this season, with six of eight foes having made good on 26 or more field goals, six of eight opponents have also scored more than 70 points. We will give the Pirates due respect in this bounce-back spot, however, confident that they can at least keep up with the Campbell Tigers in the role of short home favorite. Campbell successfully rebounded from its worst offensive showing of the season by exploding for 87 points last time out against Stetson. While Stetson's break-neck pace had a lot to do with that high-scoring result, it's not as if East Carolina will be looking to slow it down either. The problem is, the Tigers have been ultra-efficient offensively, knocking down the same number of field goals per game (24) as ECU despite six fewer attempts while making good on just one less three-pointer per contest, also on eight fewer attempts. Both of these teams get to the free throw line with consistency as Campbell averages 22 FT attempts per contest and ECU checks in averaging 23. The last time these two squads met in 2019 they combined to score 146 points. While the personnel has obviously changed, I'm anticipating a similar result here. Take the over (8*). |
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12-02-22 | Uruguay v. Ghana OVER 2.25 | 2-0 | Loss | -57.5 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ghana and Uruguay at 10 am et on Friday. Ghana's two games so far in this tournament have been thrillers with each contest totalling five goals. I'll admit that I expected Ghana to be far more organized and stout defensively in this tournament but that simply hasn't been the case. Here, with Uruguay needing to push to secure advancement in this tournament (currently sitting in last place, two points behind second-place Ghana, I'm confident we'll see another relatively high-scoring affair. With Ghana having scored first in six of its last eight contests across all competitions, there's reason to believe the Uruguayans will be forced to go on the offensive early. Both sides have been vulnerable defensively in the World Cup so far, even if Uruguay has only yielded two goals through two contests. The two back lines rate out near the bottom of any defensive units in this tournament according to the numbers I use. The same goes for the keepers. Expect some fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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12-02-22 | Portugal v. South Korea +0.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Korea +0.5 goals over Portugal at 10 am et on Friday. Portugal has impressed through two matches in this tournament, securing all six points in victories over Ghana and Uruguay. I do think it faces a more cagey affair here against a desperate South Korea squad that currently sits last-place in Group H, needing a win and help to advance in the tournament. It's not as if Portugal's success has been long-lived. It has won just three matches in a row going back prior to the start of the World Cup. I like the fact that South Korea's back line rates out exceptionally well in this tournament, despite the fact that it yielded three goals last time out against Ghana. Remember, the South Koreans opened the tournament with a clean sheet in a nil-nil draw against Uruguay. I do think it's only a matter of time (and time is clearly running out) before South Korea shows some creativity in attack and ultimately pushes Portugal in that regard here. There's simply too much talent up front for the South Koreans to go away with a whimper. Take South Korea +0.5 goals (8*). |
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12-01-22 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Flames | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. While the Flames check in off a 6-2 blowout win over the Panthers and the Canadiens are off a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Sharks, I believe Montreal is set up well to give Calgary all it can handle on Thursday night. The Habs have certainly been playing better hockey lately, winning six of their last 10 games heading in. They'll have a little extra emotion for this one as teammate Sean Monahan makes his return to Calgary. Sure, the Flames skated to a blowout win over a good Panthers team two nights ago, but they've still dropped three of their last four overall and have 'only' won seven of 12 home games this season, outscoring the opposition by just 0.4 goals on average. The Habs are a respectable 5-5 on the road, outscored by an average margin of just 0.2 goals in those contests. Here, we'll note that Calgary is just 5-8 when playing at home after scoring five or more goals in their last game over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.1 goals on average in that spot. We'll confidently grab the insurance goal with the visitors at a near pk'em price here. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Bills Thanksgiving Day victory in Detroit last Thursday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they stay on the road to face the division-rival Patriots in Foxborough. While Buffalo has still put up 30, 31 and 28 points over its last three contests, it hasn't looked totally in-sync. Whether that has to do with Josh Allen's injury is up for debate. With the Patriots having had an extra couple of days to prepare for this tall task, I do think we'll see their defense, which is still underrated at this late stage of the season in my opinion, keep Allen and Co. in check, relatively-speaking at least. I'm willing to chalk up last week's allowance of 33 points in Minnesota as an aberration as the Pats suffered a 'shock to the system' of sorts after facing the Jets (twice) and Colts over a three-week span heading in. I think we see their defense bounce back here. On the flip side, the Pats have gone fairly conservative offensively ever since Mac Jones orchestrated a turnover-fest against the Bears in a Monday nighter in late October. Since then, the Pats have turned the football over just twice in four games, without a single TO in their last two. While the Bills are known for their offense, they can play elite defense as well and while losing Von Miller to an injury hurts, the rest of the defense is as healthy as it's been in quite some time off the extended week. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Bills road games this season. We've also seen the 'under' go 6-1 with Buffalo coming off consecutive games totalling 50 or more points over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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12-01-22 | Germany -2.5 v. Costa Rica | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
Group Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Germany -2.5 goals over Costa Rica at 2 pm et on Thursday. We actually won with Costa Rica +1 goal against Japan in its most recent match so there is some level of respect for the CONCACAF side but I simply feel it's a 'wrong place, wrong time' situation against a vastly superior German squad on Thursday and will confidently lay the 2.5 goals with Die Mannschaft here. Despite the 1-0 victory last time out, I still have Costa Rica rating out poorly through two matches in this tournament to date. Keeper Keylor Navas might be the weakest link of all, which obviously spells trouble as he tries to keep a loaded German offense that's just bubbling under the surface and poised for a breakout performance here. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this is a Costa Rican side that is just one game removed from a 7-0 drubbing at the hands of Spain. Unlike yesterday's match between Mexico and Saudi Arabia, where the Mexicans needed to win by margin and couldn't quite close the deal, the Germans will undoubtedly be poised under the pressure and I look for them to do a much better job of capitalizing on their opportunities here. Costa Rica doesn't have that same level of talent or creativity up front as the Saudis possessed, even if it did take the latter until the final stages to finally secure a goal yesterday. German keeper Manuel Neuer hasn't been at his best through two matches in this tournament but this is a big spot for him to rise to the occasion and quite honestly, I don't expect him to be challenged much at all here. Take Germany -2.5 goals (10*). |
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12-01-22 | Germany v. Costa Rica OVER 3.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Costa Rica and Germany at 2 pm et on Thursday. I think we’re only going to realistically need one goal from Costa Rica to get ‘over’ this total of 3.5 on Thursday and considering Germany has conceded at least a goal in nine of its last 10 contests, I believe there’s a good chance of that happening here. Of course the Germans need to push at every opportunity as they sit in last-place in the group with plenty of work to do to advance. We know Costa Rica is vulnerable defensively as we saw it drop a 7-0 decision against Spain to open its tournament. We actually won with Costa Rica in its stunner against Japan but I feel there’s high-potential for it to concede three or more goals here, with its back-line continuing its tournament struggle. Take the over (8*). |
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11-30-22 | Blazers +5.5 v. Lakers | 109-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. While the Lakers have gone 3-2 ATS over their last five games, I don't believe you're going to win many games, let alone cover a lot of pointspreads when you're allowing the opposition to get off 100 or more field goal attempts on a regular basis. That's the case with Los Angeles as each of its last five opponents have hoisted up 100+ FG attempts. Four of those five opponents knocked down more than 40 field goals and while the Lakers do catch the Blazers in a back-to-back spot, I also feel that Portland will be in a less-than-giving mood after coughing up a double-digit fourth quarter lead in a home loss against the Clippers last night. Portland has held four of its last five opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts with the exception being a wild 132-129 overtime victory in New York last Friday. The Lakers recently enjoyed an offensive surge but have now been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four contests, despite the frenetic pace those games have been played at. The Blazers took the first meeting between these two teams back in October and while you might think the Lakers are poised to get their revenge here, the fact is they have defeated Portland by more than five points just once in five meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. Take Portland (8*). |
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11-30-22 | Wizards +6.5 v. Nets | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Wizards as they come off an impressive 142-127 win over the T'Wolves on Monday that snapped a three-game losing streak. All three of those losses came on their most recent road trip so it won't be difficult to sharpen their focus for this brief two-game trip. Note that Washington has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since getting throttled 128-86 at home against the Nets back in October. Prior to that, the Wizards had won consecutive meetings in this series, including a 117-103 victory here in Brooklyn last February. The Nets won but failed to cover against the Magic on Monday (we won with Orlando in that game). They've been shooting the lights out for weeks but I still think they're working with a slim margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games overall. Case in point, the Nets shot better than 54% from the field on Monday but still scored 'only' 109 points in an ATS loss. Washington comes in hot offensively as well, making good on 40+ field goals in seven straight games while hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in four of its last six contests. The Wizards last two opponents have shot exceptionally well but they've held those two teams to 80 and 84 FG attempts, limiting each of their last three foes to less than 90 attempts after five of their previous six opponents had eclipsed that number. Finally, we'll note that Brooklyn checks in a miserable 2-13 ATS the last 15 times it has played at home after winning five or six of its last seven games, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 points in that situation. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-30-22 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 227.5 | 125-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. With both of these teams playing at a reasonably slow pace lately and neither shooting particularly well, I believe this total will prove too high on Wednesday. Atlanta has gotten off just 82, 88 and 74 field goal attempts over its last three contests, knocking down fewer than 40 field goals in all three. The good news is, the Hawks have been limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities as well, holding nine of their last 10 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. It's a similar story for Orlando. It has gotten off 80 or fewer FG attempts in three straight games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time the Magic knocked down 40 or more field goals. Meanwhile, they've held three straight opponents to 82 or fewer FG attempts, including the red hot Nets in a 109-102 loss on Monday. Brooklyn actually shot the lights out in that contest (44 made field goals) yet still scored 'only' 109 points in a game that stayed comfortably 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). |
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11-30-22 | Rangers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers are reeling off three straight losses and we've successfully faded them in their last two contests as they blew a 3-0 third period lead in a 4-3 loss to the Oilers and a 2-0 first period lead in a 5-3 defeat at the hands of the Devils, with both games coming at home. Here, they'll obviously be looking to tighten things up and I do think they benefit from stepping down in class after facing the first-place Devils on Monday to take on the second-last (in the Eastern Conference) Senators on Wednesday. Ottawa does check in off consecutive wins out west but now faces the tough 'first game back off a long road trip' situation, noting that New York has been much tougher defensively on the road compared to at home this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-11 with the Rangers coming off a home loss over the last two seasons and better still, the 'under' is 13-2 when that home defeat came by two goals or more, as is the case here. That latter situation has produced an average total of just 4.8 goals. All three of last season's matchups between these two teams totalled six goals or less with the two games played here in Ottawa reaching only five and three total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-30-22 | Mexico v. Saudi Arabia OVER 2.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Saudi Arabia and Mexico at 2 pm et on Wednesday. This has the potential to be the highest-scoring match on Wednesday's World Cup slate. Both lineups rate highly up front but poorly at the back-end (in this tournament to date). Al-Shehri ranks among the most dangerous strikers in World Cup play according to my ratings. The same goes for Hirving Lozano up front for Mexico. Both back-lines can be had. Mexican goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa - one of the oldest players in the entire tournament - fared well in a 0-0 draw with Poland in the opener but struggled mightily against a tougher opponent in Argentina last time out. Saudi Arabia is capable of putting Ochoa under duress for extended stretches in this one and I'm confident it can deliver on at least one occasion. Meanwhile, the Mexicans need more than just a strong showing to advance - they need a fistful of goals and there is a path to that outcome with no one in the final-third of the field for Saudi Arabia capable of truly leaving their mark on this contest. Again, both sides are well-positioned to 'go for it' in this group stage finale and I'm confident we'll see at least three goals. Take the over (8*). |
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11-30-22 | Denmark -193 v. Australia | 0-1 | Loss | -193 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denmark over Australia at 10 am et on Wednesday. I don't believe Denmark's World Cup journey ends here. Australia's stunning 1-0 victory over Tunisia puts the Danes on the back foot entering this contest on Wednesday, but I believe they're still well-positioned to advance from the group stage with a convincing win here. I haven't been overly impressed by anything Australia has done in this tournament to date. It was never really challenged the way we figured it would be against Tunisia last time out. The Aussie back-line still rates out quite poorly through two matches, largely due to the awful showing against France, admittedly. In stark contrast, Denmark gets stronger as you get into its final-third, with the trio of Christensen, Kjer and Andersen among the best defenders in the tournament and keeper Kasper Schmeichel also having performed well through two matches. I'm not going to let a late goal allowed against France lead me away from the Danes here as they more than likely advance with a victory. I do think it's worth paying the tariff to back them on the three-way line rather than laying the goal, however, simply due to the potential of them staking out a lead and then parking the bus. Take Denmark (8*). |
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11-30-22 | France v. Tunisia +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tunisia +1.5 goals over France at 10 am et on Wednesday. Short on time with kickoff fast approaching but we’ll take a shot with Tunisia now that +1.5 prices are more widely available. Tunisia the forgotten team in this group after a 1-0 loss to Australia. Still have a shot at advancing but need a win along with a DEN-AUS draw. Not outside the realm of possibility given how this tourney has proceeded. Tunisia can be a frustrating squad to break down and a positive result isn’t an absolute necessity for the French here. Take Tunisia +1.5 goals (8*). |
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11-29-22 | Capitals +105 v. Canucks | 5-1 | Win | 105 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the bounce-back spot for the Capitals on Tuesday as they look to respond after suffering a 5-1 loss to the red hot Devils last time out. The Canucks enter on a three-game winning streak, sweeping their road trip. They're just 3-5 on home ice this season, though. The Capitals are a woeful 2-9 on the road but that record will level out eventually. Looking back, Washington has faced a tough slate of opponents away from home. I do think they use the rest of this trip as an opportunity to get on track on the highway and off two full days' off, this is an ideal turnaround spot in my opinion. With the Canucks 'fat and happy' off a perfect road trip and having dropped last year's lone matchup between these two teams here in Vancouver, I'll back the Caps at a generous price on Tuesday. Take Washington (8*). |
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11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers play on without Damian Lillard but the Clippers are in even worse shape, missing Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and John Wall (he'll rest with this being the first of a back-to-back set). Los Angeles did prevail by a 114-100 score over Indiana at home on Sunday, thanks to knocking down 42 field goals - the first time in three games it broke the 40-FG mark. Of course, the Clips needed 94 FG attempts to get there - well north of their season average (they had hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their previous nine contests). While the Blazers do look vulnerable defensively right now (40+ field goals allowed in eight straight games), I'm not convinced the Clips are well-positioned to take advantage. Portland suffered a 111-97 loss in Brooklyn on Sunday, managing just one victory on its four-game road trip. I do think there's reason for optimism as it returns home, noting that it plays at a faster, more fluid pace here, making good on 40-of-85 FG attempts per game. Keep in mind, the last two times Portland has gotten off 80+ FG attempts it has knocked down 44 and 42 of them and Los Angeles has allowed two of its last three foes to get off 94+ FG attempts, yielding 40+ makes in three of its last four contests. While the Clippers are 5-4 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.2 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers are an even 4-4 at home but have outscored opponents by 1.8 points on average here at the Moda Center. Take Portland (10*). |
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11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 214 | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Portland at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I understand the logic behind this total shifting downward but that doesn't mean I agree with it. The Clippers haven't been the same dominant force defensively this season, and certainly not of late as two of their last three opponents have gotten off 94 or more field goal attempts with three of their last four foes knocking down 40+ field goals. In fact, 12 of Los Angeles' last 14 opponents have scored 100+ points. The Blazers have been held to 97 points or less in two of their last three games but should rebound at home, where they're averaging north of 114 points per game on 40 made field goals per contest. Defensively, Portland has allowed eight consecutive opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. In general, the Blazers play at a faster pace here at the Moda Center, averaging 85 FG attempts per game compared to their season average of 83 while yielding 88 FG attempts per contest to opponents compared to their season average of 86. Take the over (8*). |
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11-29-22 | Senegal v. Ecuador UNDER 2.25 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 1 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Senegal and Ecuador at 10 am et on Tuesday. |
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11-28-22 | Magic +10.5 v. Nets | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Monday. With Brooklyn 'fat and happy' off last night's 14-point win over Portland and Orlando looking to bounce back from four straight losses SU and three in a row ATS, I'll confidently grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Magic on Monday. Note that Orlando have Brooklyn all it could handle in two matchups on this floor last season, losing by a bucket and winning by seven. While Orlando is 1-8 on the road this season, only three of those losses came by more than 10 points. I still feel that the Nets have a fairly small margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. They've been shooting the lights out for the better part of the last two weeks but here they're asked to lay double-digits for the first time since October 29th against Indiana (a game they lost outright 125-116). We know the Magic can limit the opposition's scoring opportunities as they've held their last three opponents to 86, 82 and 77 FG attempts. Last night, the 76ers simply couldn't miss, knocking down a ridiculous 64.9% of their shots. Noting that the Magic are 18-8 ATS the last 26 times they've come off consecutive ATS losses, we'll grab all of those points on Monday. Take Orlando (8*). |
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11-28-22 | Devils -102 v. Rangers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New Jersey over New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Devils just keep rolling along and I like their chances of stacking up another victory as they head to Manhattan to face the struggling Rangers on Monday night. New York has lost seven of its last 11 games, including Saturday's stunning 4-3 defeat at the hands of the Oilers in a game they led 3-0 in the third period (we won with the underdog Oilers in that game). There's no comparison between these two teams statistically this season. The 'due factor' and the fact that New York has owned this series for years is really the only thing it has going for it in this matchup. That's not enough to warrant the pk'em price in my opinion. Noting that the Devils have outscored the opposition by 2.0 goals on average on the road this season while the Rangers have been outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals at home, we'll confidently back New Jersey here. Take New Jersey (10*). |
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11-28-22 | Uruguay +0.5 v. Portugal | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Uruguay +0.5 goals over Portugal at 2 pm et on Monday. I can't help but feel Portugal will be hard-pressed to pick up a full six points in its first two matches of this tournament as it faces the prospect of a cagey affair against Uruguay on Monday. Portugal impressed in its opener and ultimately prevailed thanks in part to a somewhat questionable Cristiano Ronaldo penalty. If there was something negative to say about that overall performance, it was its form on the back line with Cancelo, Dias, Pereira and Guerreiro looking less than air-tight in defense. Keeper Diogo Costa rated out poorly in that 3-2 victory over Ghana as well. We won with the 'under' in Uruguay's tournament-opening 0-0 draw against South Korea. I do expect Uruguay to break the seal and find the back of the net for the first time in this tournament on Monday. However, this does project as a relatively low-scoring affair with the total set at 2.0. Depending on the earlier result between South Korea and Ghana, a draw should suit both Portugal and Uruguay just fine here. Noting that four of Uruguay's last five matches across all competitions have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals, we'll confidently back it plus the half-goal here. Take Uruguay +0.5 goals (8*). |
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11-27-22 | Packers +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I don't know how you can be all that high on the Eagles right now as they enter Sunday's contest off three consecutive ATS losses after narrowly escaping with a 17-16 win in Indianapolis last Sunday. The time to fade the Packers was last Thursday - fresh off a huge come-from-behind upset win over the Cowboys - which we did with the Titans in that game. Now everyone has once again written off Aaron Rodgers and company in a spot where I believe they can give the Eagles all they can handle. Note that Green Bay laid waste to Philadelphia by a 30-16 score the last time they met less than two years ago. In that contest, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts completed 5-of-12 passes for 109 yards, one touchdown and one interception while running five times for 29 yards. Interestingly, TE Dallas Goedert led the Eagles in catches and receiving yards in that game. He's now sidelined, leaving the tight end position to a duo that includes Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra. Obviously Hurts is a much better quarterback now than he was two years ago. With that being said, I don't believe there's any sort of intimidation factor at play, certainly not after the Commanders and Colts bottled up this Eagles offense over the last two weeks. The Packers are an interesting study in many regards, still boasting plenty of talent on both sides of the football, and perhaps a chip on their shoulder in the 'spoiler' role down the stretch. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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11-27-22 | Rams +16 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-26 | Push | 0 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Yeah, the Rams are going nowhere this season. Everyone knows that. They're also missing most of their key contributors on offense - a unit that is almost unrecognizable at this point. The Chiefs know that as well and off a hard-fought, come-from-behind, last minute victory over the Chargers last week, I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown here. Kansas City doesn't run away and hide on the opposition this season. You could say only two of their games have been true blowouts - a 44-21 win in Arizona way back in Week 1 and a 44-23 rout of the 49ers on October 23rd. Here, they'll be facing a Rams team that has allowed more than 27 points just once all season, and they'll do so with their own injury issues. Already thin at the wide receiver position, they're still without Mecole Hardman and now Kadarius Toney is banged-up as well. Note that Kansas City has allowed 17 or more points in all 10 games so far this season so there's little reason to expect it to completely shut down the Rams offense here. I do like Los Angeles' chances of churning out some long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game on Sunday and that certainly works in our favor catching north of two touchdowns. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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11-27-22 | Raiders v. Seahawks OVER 47.5 | 40-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results with neither of those contests breaking 40 points. That might lead some to believe that this total is too high, currently sitting in the high-40's. I believe it will prove far too low as this game has true shootout potential. The Raiders offense didn't match up particularly well against the Broncos stout defense last week but WR Davante Adams still went off, scoring the game-winning touchdown in walk-off fashion. Adams figures to stuff the boxscore again this week as the Seahawks don't have a single defender capable of containing the all-world receiver. That's not to mention the fact that Seattle has been vulnerable against the run and will be looking to stop an underrated Raiders ground attack led by workhorse RB Josh Jacobs. On the flip side, there's little reason to expect the Raiders will contain a Seahawks offense that should snap back like a rubber band after struggling against the Bucs tough defense in Munich prior to the bye week. The extra week off should have given WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett extra time to heal up their nagging injuries and I'm confident that duo will go off, much like Adams, in this contest. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker is rightfully the focal point of the Seahawks offense at this point and he's in line for a monster day as well with the Raiders ranking as a bottom-five run stopping unit in the league. Take the over (9*). |
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11-27-22 | Bears v. Jets -7 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. While I would prefer to be in on this one at the opener, I still expect the Jets to come away with a double-digit victory, so I'll lay the touchdown on Sunday afternoon in New Jersey. Should Justin Fields end up playing, we'll see this line come down in which case I would elevate this to a 9* play. The potential is there for a 'slingshot effect' when it comes to the Jets offense in this one as they make the switch to Mike White at quarterback in place of an ineffective and mistake-prone Zach Wilson. There are too many gamebreakers on this offense for it to be held back by its quarterback. White isn't going to set the world on fire, but he will do a better job of limiting mistakes and getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Keep in mind, New York is coming off a brutal four-game stretch that saw it face the Broncos, Patriots (twice) and Bills defenses so lining up against the Bears down-trodden unit should offer a breath of fresh air. Already struggling in pass defense, Chicago is now down two of its best (relatively-speaking) young corners in Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon. While it may be counter-intuitive to lay this type of number with the Jets, they've actually won a pair of games by 17 and 23 points and half of their six victories have come by at least a touchdown. Take New York (8*). |
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11-27-22 | Canada v. Croatia OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 115 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Canada and Croatia at 11 am et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring contest between two squads that appear to have 'no love lost' heading in. Both sides could certainly use the three points from this match with Canada off a 1-0 loss to Belgium and Croatia following up on an uninspiring draw with Morocco in their respective tournament openers. I'm confident the Croatians can put the Canadians on their back foot early on, noting that they've scored first in five of their last six matches. Canada couldn't break through against Belgium but certainly showed plenty of promise, taking the play to the much higher ranked squad in Wednesday's shutout loss. I'm confident we'll see the Canadians finally break through with their first World Cup goal in this match - I'm just not convinced it will be enough to come away with point(s), speaking to the potential of a 2-1 result. Take the over (10*). |
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11-27-22 | Morocco +0.5 v. Belgium | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Morocco +0.5 goals over Belgium at 8 am et on Sunday. I didn't come away one bit impressed by Belgium's tournament-opening 1-0 victory over Canada. That could have been a much different match were it not for a missed penalty from Alphonso Davies early on and the reality was, the Canadians took the play to the Belgians for the majority of the game's 90 minutes. Morocco may be considered an upstart off its draw with Croatia to open this tournament but I believe it is capable of going on a deep tournament run. Undefeated across its last seven matches in all competitions, look for Morocco to give Belgium all it can handle on Sunday, with a draw benefiting both teams in reality. Take Morocco +0.5 goals (8*). |
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11-27-22 | Costa Rica +1 v. Japan | 1-0 | Win | 115 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Costa Rica +1 goal over Japan at 5 am et on Sunday. It doesn't get much worse than Costa Rica's 7-0 drilling at the hands of Spain in its World Cup opener earlier this week. That result should have bettors flocking to lay the goal with Japan - which pulled off a stunning 2-1 come-from-behind victory over Germany (we won with the 'over' in that match) - ahead of Sunday's match. I believe it's the wrong move, however. The Japanese took full advantage of an over-aggressive Germany attack, countering to perfection late in the second half to secure the match-winning goal. I fully expect to see Costa Rica settle into a frustrating defensive shell in this match, turning the tables on Japan as it looks to take advantage of the favored side's aggressiveness here. Despite what we saw from both sides earlier in the week, I believe the 'draw' is in play here. Take Costa Rica +1 goal (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Washington v. Washington State +2 | 51-33 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Washington at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. The Washington Huskies opened the season by winning four straight games ATS, all in a favorite role. Since then, however, they've gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. After scoring a season-high 54 points in last week's rout of the hapless Colorado Buffaloes, we'll fade the Huskies here as they take on a Washington State squad that has shaken off a midseason lull to win three consecutive games and four in a row ATS heading into this rivalry showdown. Finally having found a consistent ground attack, the Cougars are suddenly dangerous offensively, racking up well over 600 rushing yards over the last three games alone. Noting that Washington is just 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after covering its previous contest as a double-digit favorite, we'll get behind the underdog Cougars here. Take Washington State (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Jazz v. Suns -6.5 | 112-113 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. No question the Suns have had this one circled since dropping a wild 134-133 decision in Salt Lake City on November 18th. The Jazz quite simply shot the lights out in that game, knocking down 51-of-91 field goal attempts in the narrow victory. Here, Phoenix catches Utah in a 3-in-4 situation, playing in a third different city over that stretch. The Jazz have had now answers defensively, allowing four of their last six opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts and their last three foes to make good on 47, 44 and 52 field goals. That spells trouble as they face a red hot Suns squad that has knocked down 42+ field goals in six straight games. On the flip side, Phoenix has rounded back into form defensively, holding its last three opponents to 34, 36 and 39 made field goals (the latter came on 92 FG attempts from the Pistons last night). Take Phoenix (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Stars +142 v. Avalanche | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm not completely convinced that the Avalanche are the better team in this matchup, yet we're being given a very generous price to back the Stars, likely due to the fact they're off a hard-fought overtime loss to the Jets last night while Colorado was idle thanks to a water main break in Nashville. The Stars have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendars since suffering a 3-2 home loss to the Avalanche earlier this week. Dallas has proven to be more than just a 'tough out' on the road this season, going 6-5 while outscoring the opposition by 1.0 goal per contest. The Avs are off a stunning 4-3 home loss to the Canucks and are just an even 4-4 here in Denver this season. Take Dallas (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Air Force v. San Diego State +2 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Air Force at 9 pm et on Saturday. San Diego State has risen from the ashes following a poor 2-3 start to the campaign, winning five of its last six contests to firmly plant itself in the Bowl picture. Both Air Force and San Diego State are in uncharted territory here, riding respective three-game winning streaks. There's no question it's the Aztecs that are playing better football, however, noting that Air Force has gone just 1-3 ATS over its last four contests and 2-5 ATS over its last seven overall. Meanwhile, San Diego State checks in 4-1 ATS over its last five games. You know the saying; good teams win, great teams cover. While I'm not sure we should be crowning this San Diego squad as 'great', I do think it is good enough to hand Air Force a 10th consecutive loss in this series going all the way back to 2010. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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11-26-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +3 | 143-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Spurs (again) last night. Once again, we saw them push the pace, getting off 100 field goal attempts, but failing to make those opportunities count in a nine-point loss to the same Lakers they'll face on Saturday. Another positive, San Antonio limited Los Angeles to 83 field goal attempts. It has now held six consecutive opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. Teams continue to shoot exceptionally well on this admittedly poor Spurs defense, but I do think we see Pop's crew step up in that regard tonight. Note that the Lakers are a woeful 5-17 ATS after giving up 95 points or fewer in a game over the last three seasons, outscored by 2.5 points on average in that situation. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Maple Leafs v. Penguins -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh -1.5 goals over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm excited at the prospect of such a generous return laying the extra goal with the Penguins in this matchup on Saturday in Pittsburgh. We unsuccessfully faded the Leafs in yesterday's 4-3 win in Minnesota. The Wild certainly didn't put forth their best effort in that contest, looking very much like a team that enjoyed the Thanksgiving festivities a little too much a day earlier. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was sharp again last evening, delivering a 4-1 win in Philadelphia that didn't appear to empty much out of their tank. Pittsburgh has now won five games in a row with four of those victories coming by two goals or more. I expect another comfortable victory here against a Leafs team whose back-to-back wins have masked what I still feel are deficiencies at the back-end. Take Pittsburgh -1.5 goals (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Going into Corvallis and coming away with a victory isn't easy. Oregon knows that as it dropped its most recent trip here as a near-two touchdown favorite in 2020. On Saturday, I look for a revenge-minded Beavers squad (after losing last year's matchup by a score of 38-29) to play spoiler against the rival Ducks. Oregon is in a clear letdown spot here off a big win over Utah last week, as it successfully avenged a pair of losses suffered at the hands of the Utes last season, including one in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Noting that the Beavers have gone a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 lined home games, we'll confidently back them in an underdog role here. Take Oregon State (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Purdue -10.5 v. Indiana | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the set-up for this play as Indiana returns home off an upset win over Michigan State in overtime last week, all but dashing its hopes of Bowl eligibility. It's not as if the Hoosiers had been playing good football - they entered that contest losers of three straight games ATS. Since dropping consecutive games against Wisconsin and Iowa, Purdue has managed to win its last two contests and is now in the position to potentially reach the Big Ten Championship Game with a win after Iowa was upset by Nebraska yesterday. Here, we'll note that Indiana is 0-7 ATS the last seven times it has come off an outright win as a double-digit underdog, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 18.4 points in that situation. Take Purdue (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Hawaii v. San Jose State -15 | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose State minus the points over Hawaii at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This is a smash spot for San Jose State as it limps home off a pair of tough losses against San Diego State and Utah State. The Spartans have now dropped the cash in five straight games but I'm confident they can turn it around right before Bowl season as they host a hapless Hawaii squad on Saturday. I say Hawaii is hapless but let's at least give it credit for outlasting UNLV at home last week. The Rainbow Warriors actually check in off consecutive ATS victories but I don't believe a third straight is in the cards, noting that they've gone 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they've played on the road off back-to-back ATS victories. San Jose boasts one of the best run defenses in the conference and should be able to make Hawaii one-dimensional here, ultimately pulling away for a convincing win. Take San Jose State (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Oilers +130 v. Rangers | 4-3 | Win | 130 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. With the Rangers having won just four of their last 10 games and in a tough spot here returning home off a west coast road trip, I like the slumping Oilers to catch them by surprise on Saturday afternoon. Edmonton has had a couple of days off to digest a 3-0 loss to the Islanders on Wednesday - its second straight defeat to open this three-game road swing. There's no reason for the Oilers to be intimidated by this matchup on Saturday, noting that New York has been outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals in its 10 home games this season. It's worth noting that while the Rangers did skate to a victory the last time these two teams met last season, they haven't recorded consecutive wins over Edmonton since taking five in a row in the series from 2015 to 2018. Since then, the Oilers are 5-1 in the last six meetings. Take Edmonton (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Australia v. Tunisia +120 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tunisia over Australia at 5 am et on Saturday. As expected, Tunisia proved very difficult for Denmark to break down in its World Cup opener, in fact that task proved impossible as the two teams played to a 0-0 draw. Here, with a chance to take over top spot in the group, albeit short-lived perhaps depending on how France fares later on Saturday, I look for the Tunisians to take advantage. Australia entered the tournament in fine form, but that had a lot to do with the lukewarm competition it had faced recently. After a quick start against France in its opener, hope was quickly dashed. While Tunisia did look rather punchless offensively in its opener, I expect it to enjoy a breakthrough in short order here. Take Tunisia (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Wyoming +15 v. Fresno State | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Fresno State at 10 pm et on Friday. Wyoming might not be the most exciting team to watch, unless you're a football purist. The Cowboys rarely throw the football, certainly shifting to a more run-centric offensive gameplan as the season has gone on. But they have an outstanding defense, not to mention a ground game that can carry the load offensively. After giving Boise State all it could handle in a three-point defeat (as a 14.5-point underdog) last week, I look for Wyoming to turn in a repeat performance against Fresno State on Friday. The Bulldogs are coming off a 41-14 rout of a disappointing Nevada squad last Saturday and enter this contest riding a six-game winning streak after opening the campaign with four losses in their first five games. I believe there's reason for Fresno State to be on 'upset alert' here, noting that it has been quite pedestrian in run defense this season, yielding 4.5 yards per rush attempt. After turning the football over three times in last week's narrow loss to Boise State, we can anticipate Wyoming going even more conservative here in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings as north of a two-touchdown underdog on the road. Having dropped three straight meetings in this series, including a 17-0 shutout defeat last year, look for the revenge-minded Cowboys to stick around for four quarters on Friday. Take Wyoming (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Pistons v. Suns -12 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Detroit at 9:10 pm et on Friday. We'll fade the Pistons off their big upset win over the Jazz in Utah two nights ago as that marked their third consecutive ATS win, marking their longest such streak of the season. Detroit has shot exceptionally well over its last several games, knocking down 43, 47, 45 and 44 field goals over its last four contests, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in three of those games. Here, it runs into a Suns squad that has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts and its last two foes to just 34 and 36 made field goals. On the flip side, Phoenix is playing at a tremendous pace and making the most of it, hoisting up 94 or more FG attempts in six of its last seven contests and making good on 43+ field goals in five straight games. Noting that the Suns are 22-10 ATS the last 32 times they've come off consecutive double-digit victories, I don't anticipate a letdown off a 10-point victory over the Lakers last time out. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 105-94 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Spurs two nights ago as they fell in a big hole early in the game against the Pelicans and never recovered in a 19-point loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with San Antonio here, however, as it stays home to host the Lakers in a quick revenge spot after getting blown out 123-92 in Los Angeles on Sunday. While Los Angeles does check in 2-1-1 ATS over its last four contests, it isn't necessarily trending in the right direction at either end of the floor. Note that the Lakers have gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight games while allowing their last three opponents to hoist up 92, 105 and 102 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Spurs have actually held their last five opponents to 79, 83, 81, 85 and 82 FG attempts but each and every one of those teams have shot the lights out. Of course, that has a lot to do with the inept nature of the Spurs defense. Note, however, that the Lakers might not be fit to take full advantage as they've shot 45.5% or worse in five of six road games this season. Here, we'll note that San Antonio is a long-term 126-95 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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11-25-22 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 212 | 107-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This is the second instalment of a two-game set between these two teams in Miami after the Heat prevailed by a 113-105 score on Wednesday. That 'over' result has led to an adjustment to the total here, and I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. Washington continues to defend well, holding three straight and 11 of its 18 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals this season. It has also been efficient offensively for the most part, although it needed to shoot better than 47% from the field to get to 42 made field goals and only 105 points in this same matchup two nights ago. The Wiz are averaging only 87 field goal attempts per game on the road this season while the Heat have held the opposition to 86 FG attempts per contest here at home. Miami has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games including 35 and 39 in two games against Washington (the first of which was aided by overtime). It matched a season-high with 93 FG attempts in regulation time last time out yet still scored 'only' 113 points on 39 made field goals. Take the under (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Nets v. Pacers +3 | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Nets have absolutely shot the lights out lately, knocking down 40+ field goals in five straight games and 44 or more in each of their last three. Yet they've still been held to 'only' 112 points or less in three of those contests as their pace still isn't up to par, getting off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. Meanwhile, they're playing with fire at the other end of the floor, as each of their last six foes have hoisted up 91 or more FG attempts with their last three getting off 99+. The Pacers are fit to take advantage, noting that they've made good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight games overall, despite attempting 90 or more field goals in only three of those contests. At the other end of the floor, Indiana has limited three of its last four opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts and four of its last six foes to fewer than 40 makes. Last time out, the T'Wolves quite simply couldn't miss, shooting a ridiculous 61% from the field, yet still won by 'only' 14 points. Take Indiana (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 227 | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I like the set-up for this play as the first meeting between these two teams was lower-scoring than expected and the Grizzlies have actually seen the 'under' cash in three of their last five games overall, despite playing at a reasonably fast pace. Memphis has hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games entering Friday's contest. It has also made good on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games heading in, but comes off a loss to the Kings last time out. New Orleans has proven vulnerable defensively, allowing three of its last four opponents to knock down 41+ field goals. However, its offense has more than made up for it, making good on 42+ field goals in six straight contests and 49 and 47 over its last two games. Expect plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Florida +10 v. Florida State | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida plus the points over Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Not a difficult decision to back the Gators in this bounce-back spot off a 31-24 road loss against an improved Vanderbilt squad last week. Florida is just one-game removed from a two-game winning streak that saw it outscore Texas A&M and South Carolina by a 79-30 margin. Meanwhile, Florida State is fresh off its highest-scoring performance of the season, hanging 49 points on a weak Louisiana-Lafayette squad last Saturday. I never really like teams scheduling games like that at this late stage of the season as I feel it can throw them off course and result in a 'shock to the system' of sorts the next week (as these late season games tend to be difficult matchups). Entering off four straight ATS victories, I can't help but feel the Seminoles are overvalued here. Take Florida (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Wolves v. Hornets +5 | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Minnesota at 5:10 pm et on Friday. With this line creeping up to +5 I'll step in with a play on the underdog Hornets on Friday. Charlotte is going to get its scoring opportunities, after all it has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in seven of its last nine games, knocking down 42+ field goals in six of its last seven contests. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been playing at a slower pace than we've come to expect out of it, getting off 85 or fewer FG attempts in eight of its last nine games. On the flip side, the T'Wolves last two opponents have racked up 90 and 96 FG attempts but have shot incredibly poor. Noting that Minnesota has won just once in the last five meetings in this series and that victory came at home, by only six points, we'll grab all the points we can get with the Hornets here. Take Charlotte (8*). |
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11-25-22 | UCLA -10.5 v. California | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over California at 4:30 pm et on Friday. While some feel UCLA could be in for a letdown here off last week's tough 48-45 loss to USC, I don't expect anything of the sort. After all, the Bruins check in off consecutive losses and this serves as a 'get right' matchup against Cal. The Bears are coming off a 27-20 win over Stanford last week. Color me unimpresssed as they failed to reach the end zone until nearly four minutes into the third quarter in that victory. We successfully faded Cal two weeks back as it fell by a 38-10 score at Oregon State - a game in which it's offense was held out of the end zone for the entire 60 minutes (the Bears only touchdown came on a fumble return). While UCLA has given up a ton of points this season, a lot of that has been game-script related. The Bruins actually match up well here, noting that they've held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season and that's an area where Cal needs to made headway as when it gets pass-happy, it also tends to turn the football over. QB Jack Plummer has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with six interceptions over the last four games and is likely to be under duress most of the game on Friday. Take UCLA (10*). |
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11-25-22 | Maple Leafs v. Wild -102 | 4-3 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 2:05 pm et on Friday. The Wild are generally a streaky team, particularly on home ice and here we'll back them fresh off consecutive victories in the State of Hockey, as they host the Leafs, who are in a clear letdown spot after ending the Devils long winning streak two nights ago. I don't think there's any question, there's a valley between the Eastern and Western Conferences this season, with the West proving superior to this point. Toronto checks in just 3-6 against Western Conference opponents while Minnesota has gone an even 4-4 against the East. The fact that the Wild have held six of their last eight opponents to two goals or less has gone largely unnoticed. Off a season-high six-goal outburst in a win over Winnipeg on Wednesday, I look for Minnesota to keep it rolling here, noting that it has gone an incredible 39-12 in its last 51 home games when coming off a victory. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Canadiens +108 v. Blackhawks | 3-2 | Win | 108 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal over Chicago at 2:05 pm et on Friday. I'm not buying what the Blackhawks are selling this season and will gladly fade them for a second straight game on Friday afternoon. Chicago might not be the worst team in the NHL, but it's certainly in the conversation. Sporting a 4-1 third period lead in Dallas two nights ago, all seemed to be going well for the 'Hawks before they allowed five unanswered goals, not only failing to win, but not even managing to hold on for the puck-line cover. They're back home on Friday but that should offer little comfort as they've gone 4-6 while being outscored by 0.7 goals on average here at the United Center. Montreal successfully avenged a loss the week prior in Columbus two nights ago and will be revenge-minded again here after dropping both meetings against Chicago last season. Noting that the 'Hawks are a miserable 8-28 after giving up three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation, we'll confidently back the Habs here. Take Montreal (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Ecuador v. Netherlands -130 | 1-1 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Netherlands over Ecuador at 11 am et on Friday. The Netherlands appeared to get stronger as the match wore on against Senegal in its opener. That was a tough opponent to break down. I don't expect Ecuador to present the same level of difficulty on Friday, however. Credit Ecuador for overcoming host nation Qatar in its tournament-opener - the first time in World Cup history that the hosts lost their first match of the tourney. With that being said, Qatar didn't offer much of a challenge at all in that contest. Netherlands presents a 'shock to the system' of sorts for Ecuador here, and not helping matters is the fact that veteran striker Enner Valencia suffered a knee injury in the opener. While he is expected to play on Friday, it's unlikely he'll be 100% healthy. Speaking of injuries, Netherlands superstar Memphis Depay gave his country 30 solid minutes in the opener, easing his way into action but appearing no worse for wear. Look for an even more significant contribution from him in this one. Take the Netherlands (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Senegal v. Qatar +1 | 3-1 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Qatar +1 goal over Senegal at 8 am et on Friday. Host Qatar looked lifeless in its tournament-opening loss to Ecuador - the team that many had picked to finish in last place in this group. Needless to say, a far more inspired effort will be required in order for the hosts to keep their slim hopes of advancement in this tournament alive as they face Senegal on Friday. Senegal put forth a valiant effort but ultimately fell on two late goals against Netherlands in its opener. I believe grabbing the insurance goal with host nation Qatar is the right decision here, especially considering both squads have seen four of their last five matches stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. Last Sunday's match marked the first time in five contests that Qatar didn't strike first. I do think we see it find the back of the net for the first time in the tournament on Friday, ultimately giving Senegal all it can handle in a cagey affair. Take Qatar +1 goal (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Iran +0.5 v. Wales | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
World Cup Game of the Week. My selection is on Iran +0.5 goals over Wales at 5 am et on Friday. Entering this tournament, I felt that Wales would be hard-pressed to come away with a victory in a sneaky-tough group that includes USA, England and Iran. It managed to earn a draw against the Americans (we won with the draw in that match) thanks to a late converted penalty by Gareth Bale but I expect it to be given all it can handle against Iran again on Friday. The Iranians fell in a blowout against England in their World Cup opener. They were never competitive in that affair but I'm confident we'll see them bounce right back in a far more favorable matchup here. Despite the setback, we did see flashes of brilliance from the Iran attack. Here, I'm confident it will have more freedom to operate as it's unlikely to be under constant siege at the hands of a far more manageable Wales offense. Noting that Wales has conceded the first goal and also gone winless across its last six matches in all competitions, I'm comfortable grabbing the half-goal with Iran here. Take Iran +0.5 goals (10*). |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 60.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Ole Miss at 7 pm et on Thursday. While this isn't Army-Navy, these two teams have now gone 'under' each of the last five times they've met over the last five seasons. I'm expecting that trend to continue on Thursday. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been the same high-octane scoring machine it was earlier in the campaign. Yes, they exploded for 56 points last Saturday, but that was against FCS squad East Tennessee State. They were held to fewer than 20 points in three of four games prior to that and in the other scored only three offensive touchdowns in regulation time against Auburn. It's been a similar story for Ole Miss as its offense has struggled as the schedule has toughened up. Last Saturday against Arkansas, the Rebels didn't score a touchdown until nearly a minute into the fourth quarter, when the game was already well in hand for the Razorbacks, up 42-6. Two games back against Alabama, Ole Miss couldn't muster a single point from seven minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Even the game prior to that, an eventual 31-28 win over Texas A&M, the Rebels scored a touchdown less than two minutes into the game but then didn't reach the end zone again until nearly midway through the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-11-22 | Ravens +2.5 v. Steelers | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 71 h 25 m | Show | |
12-10-22 | Hurricanes v. Islanders UNDER 6 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
12-10-22 | Navy v. Army +2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 46 m | Show | |
12-10-22 | France v. England | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 42 m | Show | |
12-09-22 | Washington v. Gonzaga OVER 149 | 60-77 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
12-09-22 | Knicks v. Hornets +4.5 | 121-102 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
12-09-22 | Brazil v. Croatia +1.5 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
12-08-22 | Nuggets -1 v. Blazers | 121-120 | Push | 0 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
12-08-22 | St. Thomas +7.5 v. Montana State | 65-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
12-08-22 | Colorado State v. Colorado UNDER 143.5 | 65-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
12-08-22 | Senators +165 v. Stars | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
12-08-22 | Raiders -6 v. Rams | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
12-08-22 | Kings +155 v. Maple Leafs | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
12-07-22 | Canucks v. Sharks +110 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
12-07-22 | Rangers +135 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-1 | Win | 135 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
12-07-22 | Hawks +2 v. Knicks | Top | 89-113 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
12-07-22 | Brown v. Rhode Island UNDER 131 | 59-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
12-07-22 | Cornell v. Miami-FL -15.5 | 105-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
12-06-22 | Maple Leafs v. Stars +101 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
12-06-22 | Kings v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
12-06-22 | Kings +100 v. Senators | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
12-06-22 | Yale +6.5 v. Butler | 61-71 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
12-06-22 | Switzerland +0.5 v. Portugal | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
12-06-22 | Spain v. Morocco +1 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
12-05-22 | Canadiens +175 v. Canucks | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
12-05-22 | Pacers v. Warriors OVER 236 | 112-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
12-05-22 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Flames | 2-3 | Win | 110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 41.5 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
12-05-22 | South Korea +1.5 v. Brazil | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
12-05-22 | Croatia v. Japan +0.5 | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
12-05-22 | Croatia v. Japan UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
12-04-22 | Colts +10.5 v. Cowboys | 19-54 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
12-04-22 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 41 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
12-04-22 | Senegal v. England | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans +8 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
12-04-22 | Packers -4 v. Bears | 28-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
12-04-22 | Commanders v. Giants +2.5 | Top | 20-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Coyotes +181 v. Canucks | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
12-03-22 | Wichita State +7.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Magic +11 v. Raptors | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
12-03-22 | Fresno State v. Boise State UNDER 55 | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
12-03-22 | United States v. Netherlands | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
12-02-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 233 | Top | 117-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
12-02-22 | Utah +2.5 v. USC | Top | 47-24 | Win | 103 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
12-02-22 | Campbell v. East Carolina OVER 133.5 | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
12-02-22 | Uruguay v. Ghana OVER 2.25 | 2-0 | Loss | -57.5 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
12-02-22 | Portugal v. South Korea +0.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
12-01-22 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Flames | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Germany -2.5 v. Costa Rica | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Germany v. Costa Rica OVER 3.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
11-30-22 | Blazers +5.5 v. Lakers | 109-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
11-30-22 | Wizards +6.5 v. Nets | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
11-30-22 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 227.5 | 125-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
11-30-22 | Rangers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
11-30-22 | Mexico v. Saudi Arabia OVER 2.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
11-30-22 | Denmark -193 v. Australia | 0-1 | Loss | -193 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
11-30-22 | France v. Tunisia +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 39 m | Show | |
11-29-22 | Capitals +105 v. Canucks | 5-1 | Win | 105 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 214 | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
11-29-22 | Senegal v. Ecuador UNDER 2.25 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 1 h 41 m | Show | |
11-28-22 | Magic +10.5 v. Nets | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
11-28-22 | Devils -102 v. Rangers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
11-28-22 | Uruguay +0.5 v. Portugal | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
11-27-22 | Packers +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Rams +16 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-26 | Push | 0 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Raiders v. Seahawks OVER 47.5 | 40-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show | |
11-27-22 | Bears v. Jets -7 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
11-27-22 | Canada v. Croatia OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 115 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Morocco +0.5 v. Belgium | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
11-27-22 | Costa Rica +1 v. Japan | 1-0 | Win | 115 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
11-26-22 | Washington v. Washington State +2 | 51-33 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
11-26-22 | Jazz v. Suns -6.5 | 112-113 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
11-26-22 | Stars +142 v. Avalanche | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
11-26-22 | Air Force v. San Diego State +2 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
11-26-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +3 | 143-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
11-26-22 | Maple Leafs v. Penguins -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
11-26-22 | Purdue -10.5 v. Indiana | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
11-26-22 | Hawaii v. San Jose State -15 | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
11-26-22 | Oilers +130 v. Rangers | 4-3 | Win | 130 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
11-26-22 | Australia v. Tunisia +120 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
11-25-22 | Wyoming +15 v. Fresno State | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 59 m | Show | |
11-25-22 | Pistons v. Suns -12 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
11-25-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 105-94 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
11-25-22 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 212 | 107-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
11-25-22 | Nets v. Pacers +3 | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
11-25-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 227 | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
11-25-22 | Florida +10 v. Florida State | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
11-25-22 | Wolves v. Hornets +5 | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
11-25-22 | UCLA -10.5 v. California | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
11-25-22 | Maple Leafs v. Wild -102 | 4-3 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
11-25-22 | Canadiens +108 v. Blackhawks | 3-2 | Win | 108 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
11-25-22 | Ecuador v. Netherlands -130 | 1-1 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
11-25-22 | Senegal v. Qatar +1 | 3-1 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
11-25-22 | Iran +0.5 v. Wales | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 60.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |