Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC UNDER 138 | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and USC at 9:45 pm et on Sunday. When these teams met during the Pac-12 regular season they combined to score only 130 points and I anticipate more of the same here with a lot more to play for in the Sweet 16. While the Ducks put up a whopping 95 points in an extremely high-scoring affair against Iowa last time out, note that Oregon checks in 262nd in the nation in possessions per game and won't have much interest in a track meet here. Likewise, USC ranks north of 200th in the country in possessions per game and should be comfortable playing this one in the 50's or 60's. I like the disruptive nature of both defenses, with USC in particular being stingy around the basket, ranking an impressive 11th in the country in block percentage. The Trojans will let Oregon run its offense here, likely deep into the shot clock on most possessions, noting that USC ranks 316th in steals per possession. Conversely, while Oregon sits just inside the top-90 in block percentage, it ranks 45th in steals per possession. But again, what it does with those extra possessions should support our cause with the 'under' as the Ducks don't generally look to push the pace. Note that USC allows just 64.5 points per game playing away from home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons while Oregon gives up 64.2 ppg after an ATS win over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Panthers v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Dallas at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Panthers last night as they pulled out an overtime victory to snap their three-game losing streak. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as I anticipate a low-scoring affair in Big D. While Florida does average an impressive 3.6 goals per game on the road this season it remains undermanned with Sasha Barkov unlikely to return to the lineup on Sunday and Patric Hornqvist sidelined for an extended period. Note that the Stars have given up just 2.3 goals per game when coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 4.8 goals. On the flip side, the Stars average just 2.1 goals per game following consecutive contests where both teams scored three or more goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Prior to last night's contest, the first three meetings between these two teams this season all produced five goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143.5 | 58-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida State and Michigan at 5 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Florida State's blowout win over Colorado in the Round of 32 and I won't hesitate to go back the well with the same play here as the Seminoles challenge top-seeded Michigan on Sunday afternoon. This game will pit two elite defensive teams with Michigan ranking sixth in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Florida State is a top-20 team in opponents effective field goal percentage and a very respectable 48th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage this season. Both teams also rank inside the top-60 in opponents floor percentage. We'll see a contrast in styles here as Michigan will look to use most of the shot clock as it checks in 245th in the country in possessions per game while Florida State will undoubtedly try to speed things up, ranking 132nd in that category. I do believe both teams will be able to run their offenses without a great deal of disruption. Note in particular that Michigan ranks a woeful 337th in the nation in steals per possession this season. That's beneficial to Florida State given it doesn't always take great care of the basketball, ranking 251st in the nation in turnovers per possession. While I have a lot of respect for both of these offenses, I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Suns v. Hornets OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Phoenix is coming off a low-scoring victory over the Raptors in Tampa on Friday, prevailing by a 104-100 score. The 'under' is now 4-1 in the Suns last five games overall. Meanwhile, the Hornets posted an 'over' result in Friday's win over the Heat. Still, the 'under' has gone 4-1 in their last five contests. Here, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts as far as the recent 'under' trend goes for both teams. Note that the 'over' is 18-7 when the Suns have won four of their last five games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 228.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 8-1 when the Hornets come off three ATS wins in their last four games this season, with those games totaling 228.4 points on average. The first meeting between these two teams took place back on February 24th in Phoenix and totaled a whopping 245 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis UNDER 135.5 | 64-77 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Memphis at 12 noon et on Sunday. Both of these teams overwhelmed their opponents in yesterday's NIT matchups with Memphis scoring 90 points and Mississippi State putting up 84 points in blowout victories. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. While the Bulldogs shot 56% from the field including 50% from beyond the arc yesterday, they can go cold just as quickly as they get hot, noting they've been held to fewer than 60 points on eight different occasions this season. Here, they'll be up against an elite Memphis defense that has only allowed one opponent to break 70 points since the beginning of March - that being Elite Eight-bound Houston. The Tigers also shot a blistering 56% from the field yesterday including 52% from beyond the arc but will have to deal with a Mississippi State defense that ranks 34th in the nation in block percentage. Also note that the Bulldogs do an excellent job cleaning up on the glass, ranking 12th in the country in total rebounding percentage. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Jets v. Flames -125 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Calgary over Winnipeg at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Flames fell short again last night, falling by a 3-2 score against the Jets - their fourth consecutive loss. Calgary did manage to score two goals in the third period which is at least a positive for them to hang its hat on entering Saturday's rematch with Winnipeg. While the Flames are down right now, I'm not about to write them off, especially here on home ice where they're still a winning team on the season and average north of three goals per game. They've also still taken 13 of the last 17 meetings with the Jets here in Calgary. With Winnipeg having taken four of six meetings this season, there's even more motivation for the Flames to get back on track on Saturday. Take Calgary (10*). |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 229.5 | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. There's still some uncertainty as to whether Luka Doncic will play on Saturday night after missing last night's home game against the Pacers due to tightness in his back. That was more of a maintenance-related absence than anything else as far as I'm concerned and I expect to see Luka back on the floor in this second of back-to-backs for the Mavs. New Orleans played last night as well, suffering a home loss against the Nuggets. With both teams coming off subpar offensive showings last night I expect to see both bounce back with big performances on Saturday. Note that the 'over' has gone 12-2 when the Pelicans revenge a road loss against an opponent this season, with those games totaling 237.1 points on average. They've also posted a 16-6 o/u record after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239.7 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled a whopping 273 points. When they met last March they combined to score 250 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 225.5 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Washington at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been generally trending to the 'under' lately even though the Pistons are coming off consecutive 'over' results (the 'under' is 5-3 in their last eight games). I'm not anticipating a track meet as the Pistons and Wizards match up for the first time this season on Saturday. Note that Detroit averages a miserable 95.1 points per game when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last three seasons, with those games totaling just 206.2 points on average. They also average just 104.4 points per game - below their current season scoring average of 107.3 ppg - after scoring 110 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 217.6 points. Washington isn't in top form offensively, having scored 113 points or less in three straight games. I'm not sure how easy it will be for the Wizards to get up for this matchup with the lowly Pistons on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Panthers +100 v. Stars | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Panthers are reeling right now, fresh off three straight losses and dealing with a couple of key injuries to Sasha Barkov and Patric Hornqvist. With that being said, I do look for them to bounce back on Saturday night as they put a disappointing start to their current road trip behind them with a convincing victory. Florida was competitive in last Sunday's 5-3 loss in Tampa (we won with the Lightning in that game) before getting stymied in consecutive low-scoring losses in Chicago. A change of scenery should be a positive thing as the Panthers head to Dallas on Saturday, where the Stars are just 7-10 on the season and in line for a letdown off a come-from-behind win over the first-place Lightning two nights ago. Note that the Panthers average a whopping 5.0 goals per game and outscore the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Florida (10*). |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas OVER 159 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and Arkansas at 7:25 pm et on Saturday. This will be the second meeting between these two schools this season with Arkansas cruising to a 87-76 victory back on December 20th. Here on Saturday, I believe the Razorbacks scoring 100 or more points is well within the realm of possibility - a bold prediction, I know, but the situation sets up well for a track meet between these two up-tempo teams. Oral Roberts entered this tournament ranked a miserable 292nd in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 187th in opponents effective field goal percentage. The Golden Eagles have rode their offense to consecutive upset victories over Ohio State and Florida to reach the Sweet 16 but now face a whole other sort of challenge, as they're well aware of after running into the Hogs during the regular season. I don't expect ORU to shy away from its regular gameplan here, as it entered the tourney ranked 42nd in the nation in possessions per game. That of course plays right into the hands of an Arkansas team that likes to play at a break-neck pace, entering the tournament ranked 12th in possessions per game. There's little reason to believe the Golden Eagles can offer much defensive resistance here as they rank north of 200th in the country in steals per possession and do an awful job rebounding, checking in north of 300th in total rebounding percentage. The hope for ORU here is that Arkansas gets a little carried away running the floor and lacks a bit of focus at the defensive end of the floor. After getting bogged down in a narrow win over defensive-minded Texas Tech, the Hogs will certainly welcome the opportunity to get loose in this one but it may come at the expense of their own defense. Either way, much like the regular season matchup did, I'm confident this one finds its way 'over' the lofty but not unreasonable posted total, noting that Arkansas averages a whopping 93.8 points per game when the total is set between 150 and 159.5 this season, with those contests totaling an average of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech +1 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Mississippi State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Most bettors will likely back Mississippi State by default at virtually a pk'em price in this one as it comes from a power conference in the SEC while Louisiana Tech is out of the far less respected C-USA. I like the Bulldogs' (La. Tech) chances of staging the minor upset, however, as they come in playing some of their best basketball of the season and match up well here. It's worth noting that Louisiana Tech ranks an impressive eighth in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 11th in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. While Mississippi State has the better offense, I do think that Louisiana Tech, which comes in having scored 70+ points in six of its last seven games, can hang. Note that Mississippi State ranks just 161st in the country in steals per possession and conversely, ranks a miserable 319th in turnovers per possession on offense. With Mississippi State ranking 248th in the country in possessions per game, it isn't going to overwhelm Louisiana Tech with its pace here either. Louisiana State checks in as a positive momentum play having gone 10-1 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season, outscoring opponents by 14.6 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is just 1-9 ATS following a close victory by six points or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 5.1 points per game in that spot. Take Louisiana Tech (10*). |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Oregon State v. Loyola-Chicago -6.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago minus the points over Oregon State at 2:40 pm et on Saturday. We won one of our big ticket plays backing Oregon State in its win over Oklahoma State last round but I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the Beavers here as they go up against Loyola-Chicago in the Sweet 16. The Ramblers are by no means a 'Cinderella' team. They've turned in a tremendous season so far, winning 26 of 30 games, leaning on their wealth of talent and experience to reach the Sweet 16, even if few gave them a chance against Illinois last Sunday. This is a team that is certainly comfortable being in the 'favorite' role, having been the front-runner in the Missouri Valley Conference for much of the season. If any team is going to suffer a letdown here, it's not going to be the Ramblers off the upset win over one-seed Illinois, instead I feel that Oregon State might have a tough time getting its emotions running as high as it did against 'name' programs like Tennessee and Oklahoma State in the first two rounds of this tournament. The Beavers are undoubtedly deserving of respect as they've gotten hot at the right time, parlaying a Pac-12 Tournament championship run into two victories here in the NCAA Tournament. However, let's not lose sight of the fact that this is a team that entered the tourney ranked 274th in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 190th in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention its dreadful 298th ranking in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Like Loyola-Chicago, Oregon State plays at a slow pace, ranking 316th in the country in possessions per game. But the Ramblers do it much better, entering the tournament ranked 26th in the country in offensive efficiency and 25th in floor percentage. By contrast, the Beavers sat outside of the top-100 in both of those categories. The Pac-12 is being given plenty of respect now with four teams reaching the Sweet 16. However, noting that Loyola-Chicago has gone 10-3 ATS when playing away from home off three or more consecutive wins this season, outscoring the opposition by 13.1 points on average, while also going 15-4 ATS off a double-digit victory, outscoring opponents by 16.8 points per game in that situation, I'll gladly back the Ramblers laying a relatively short number here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
03-26-21 | Sharks +105 v. Coyotes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
NHL Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on San Jose over Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We have a pretty good feel for the Sharks right now, having been involved in three of their last six games, winning on consecutive occasions with them on the puck-line in Las Vegas before cashing a big play on the 'over' in their most recent contest at home against the Kings. Here, I'll back them again as they continue to play reasonably well and push toward a playoff spot in the West Division. Of course, it's going to be an uphill battle as San Jose currently sits seven points back of the fourth-place Blues but does have two games in hand. Tonight's opponent is another team San Jose is currently looking up at in the standings. Arizona checks in off a thrilling 5-4 overtime win over the Avalanche on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Colorado elected to go with Jonas Johansson in goal for that game - he was an acquisition from the Sabres last week and has been generally awful this season. Now the Coyotes are in a tough spot having gone 3-18 following a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. Off an overtime win over the last two seasons, Arizona has gone a miserable 1-9, losing those contests by an average margin of 1.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks are 7-3 revenging a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals per game on average. Despite its overall losing record, San Jose has also gone a solid 9-5 after losing four or five of its last six contests this season, averaging 3.5 goals per game in that situation. The Sharks have managed to hold their own here in Glendale in recent years, splitting the last six meetings, including a 1-1 split earlier this season where they won the front-half. Take San Jose (10*). |
|||||||
03-26-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Calgary at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Flames ran into a wall offensively on their most recent road trip, scoring just two goals over their last three games in Toronto and Ottawa after opening the trip with a four-goal outburst against the Leafs. At the face of it, scoring two goals in two games against the Senators looks awful. However, the Sens have been doing a much better job of keeping the puck out of their net, clearly placing a major emphasis on playing sound defense during their homestand. Just ask the Leafs, who scored just two goals in regulation time before escaping with an overtime win in Ottawa last night. Now Calgary finally returns home, where it averages 3.3 goals per game this season. It catches the Jets in a favorable situation here, noting that Winnipeg has allowed 3.9 goals per game when coming off a division road win over the last two seasons, with the 'over' going 12-2 in that situation, and those games averaging 7.3 total goals. Winnipeg has also allowed 3.7 goals per game following a win by four goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here following Wednesday's 5-1 win. The Jets have been one of the best offensive teams on the road this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game in enemy territory. Winnipeg averages 3.5 goals per game when revenging a loss against an opponent this season, with those games totaling just north of six goals on average. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 228 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. As the total suggests, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Grizzlies and Jazz in Salt Lake City on Friday night. The Grizzlies have been a different team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.4 points per game above their season scoring average in a visitors' role. Not surprisingly, the 'over' has cashed at a 9-7-1 clip when they play on the road compared to a 9-15 o/u mark at home. They enter this game off three consecutive ATS victories which sets up well for the 'over', noting that it has gone 12-3 when Memphis plays after consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of 234.7 points. Of course, Utah boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Even during a recent hiccup, the Jazz still continued to rack up the points and check into this one having scored 114 points or more in 13 straight games. That's even more impressive considering eight of those 13 games were played on the road. Here at home, Utah averages 117.8 points per game. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies have allowed 119.8 ppg as an underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points over the last two seasons. The last two meetings between these two teams have produced 238 and 239 total points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-26-21 | Nets -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We've made a habit of fading the Nets over the last week or so, cashing tickets against them with the underdog Magic last Friday night and the favored Jazz in what turned out to be a monster blowout on Wednesday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the Nets as they stay on the road to face the Pistons in Detroit on Friday. Brooklyn obviously has injury concerns but I would expect it to have James Harden back on the floor for Friday's game. According to head coach Steve Nash it sounded like Harden could have played on Wednesday in Utah but the team essentially treated that as a throw-away game on the second of back-to-back nights off a win in Portland on Tuesday. The Pistons check in off an ATS win in Indiana on Wednesday but that sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 17-31 ATS off an ATS victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.5 points per game in that situation. Having dropped their last meeting with the Nets after staging an upset in their first matchup, I'll point out that they're 26-41 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.2 points in those contests. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
|||||||
03-25-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -178 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
NHL West Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up for the Avalanche coming off a disappointing shootout loss in Arizona two nights ago. Colorado went with newly-acquired and struggling goaltender Jonas Johansson in that game, giving Philipp Grubauer a much-deserved night off. Grubauer should be back in goal on Thursday, noting that he has allowed just three goals on the last 137 shots he has faced. The Avs are also back on home ice for this one, where they've gone 11-5 this season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals per game. Of course, Colorado will also be looking for revenge after suffering a 3-0 loss against the Knights here in Denver back on February 22nd. We actually won with Vegas in that spot, expecting a clear letdown from the Avs off their outdoor game victory over the Knights two days earlier. Colorado has gone a perfect 9-0 revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an incredible 2.9-goal margin in those contests. The Avs are also a solid 23-9 after allowing four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Vegas averages just 2.7 goals per game after winning two of its last three games over the last two seasons and I don't believe it will have enough to get past the Avs in the first of this two-game set on Thursday night. Take Colorado (10*). |
|||||||
03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis UNDER 143 | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Memphis at 9 pm et on Thursday. Boise State has given up 80+ points in back-to-back games which I don't think speaks to the identity or quality of this Broncos team. Meanwhile, Memphis has been playing like an elite defensive team for weeks and does match up well with the Boise offense here. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 when Memphis checks in playing away from home off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 128.9 points. The Tigers have allowed just 62 points per game in lined contests as a favorite this season. Meanwhile, Boise State has allowed just 67 points per game after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons. Here, the Broncos will run into a Memphis squad that ranks top-three in the nation in opponents floor percentage this season. The Tigers also rank eighth in the country in steals per possession and 15th in block percentage. Boise State is what I would consider a 'tough out', however, noting that the Broncos do rank a respectable 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency and 60th in turnovers per possession on offense. I'm not expecting a third straight track meet for Boise here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-25-21 | Panthers -123 v. Blackhawks | 0-3 | Loss | -123 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Panthers as they look to snap their mini two-game skid on Thursday night in Chicago. We actually won with the Blackhawks in the front half of this two-game set as they skated to a 3-2 victory. Now Florida is set up well to respond favorably, noting it has allowed just 1.9 goals per game when on the road coming off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.9 goals in that situation, which has come up on 10 previous occasions. Meanwhile, Chicago is giving up a whopping 4.2 goals per game when playing on home ice following a one-goal victory over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 15-5 coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals per game in that situation. No Sasha Barkov for the Panthers again on Thursday but they have enough depth to pick up the slack. Take Florida (10*). |
|||||||
03-25-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday. Detroit has been shutout in each of its last two games and checks in averaging a miserable 2.0 goals per game on the road this season. There's little reason to anticipate much progression here, noting that Detroit averages just 1.7 goals per game when playing on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons and 1.9 goals per game when revenging a road loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the same period. While the Wings are by no means a good defensive team, the Predators aren't likely to run it up on them, noting that Nashville averages only 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season and has scored more than three goals in regulation time just once in its last eight games. It's worth noting that Nashville averages just 2.2 goals per game after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. We've seen the 'under' cash in three of the last five meetings between these two teams in Nashville. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-25-21 | Blazers v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have gone ice cold offensively over the course of a four-game losing streak which seemingly came out of nowhere. If Miami is going to snap its skid on Thursday night, I believe it will have to lean on its defense, which has the potential to be one of the best units in the league. Note that Miami checks in having allowed just 106.8 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 217.5 points. The Heat have been a positive momentum play from a defensive standpoint, having allowed just 104.3 points per game after consecutive 'under' results, with those contests totaling an average of just 213.6 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers have given up 109.9 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons. That's not an impressive number on the face of it, but when you consider they give up an average of 115.5 points per game overall this season, it's worth noting. The 'under' has gone 19-7 in that situation over the last three seasons. It seems that outside of a 50-point outburst against New Orleans last week, Damian Lillard has been a little off his game since C.J. McCollum returned to the Blazers lineup. Expect some carry-over in the face of a tough defensive challenge against what should be a desperate Heat squad tonight. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-25-21 | Hurricanes v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This will be the fourth consecutive game between the Hurricanes and Blue Jackets with the previous three all staying 'under' the total. I look for that trend to continue on Thursday. After Tuesday's 3-0 shutout loss, it's worth noting that the Jackets haven't exactly thrived in a bounce-back role, averaging just 2.4 goals per game when revenging a loss by three goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games averaging a total of just 5.3 goals. The 'under' has gone 25-9 when Columbus plays at home after winning two of its last three games, with those contests totaling an average of 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes average a miserable 1.7 goals per game when playing on the road following a game where three goals or less were scored, as is the case here, with those games averaging only 4.8 total goals. That same situation has produced a 3-12 o/u record over the last two seasons. I always like to say that familiarity lends itself to low-scoring games and with this being the seventh meeting between these two teams this season, I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State UNDER 146 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams put up 75 points in their NIT openers but I expect them to have a tough time approaching that number as they match up in this quarter-final game on Thursday night. Note that N.C. State ranks just 225th in the nation in possessions per game while Colorado State checks in 205th. I do think the Wolfpack will be able to run their offense in this one as the Rams rank 258th in steals per possession and 232nd in block percentage. However, Colorado does rank an impressive 64th in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention 25th in opponents floor percentage. The Rams offense will be taking a step up in class against N.C. State here, noting that the Wolfpack rank 11th in the country in steals per possession and 34th in block percentage. I do think Colorado State will have a tough time getting comfortable at the offensive end of the floor. Keep in mind, this is a Rams squad that shoots below 44% from the field away from home this season. Also alarming for Colorado State is the fact that it ranks 251st in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-24-21 | Kings v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair two nights ago as the Sharks skated to a 2-1 victory on home ice. I'm expecting a higher-scoring contest on Wednesday night. Note that while San Jose gave up just one goal in Monday's game, it has still allowed 3.6 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'over' is 19-9 when the Sharks come off a game in which they allowed one goal or less over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.5 goals. I'll also point out that the 'over' is 16-6 when San Jose plays at home off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 7.0 goals. The Kings average a respectable 2.9 goals per game when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons but also allow 3.6 goals per game coming off a game where four goals or less were scored over the last three seasons. Prior to Monday, the two previous meetings between these two rivals this season both produced at least seven goals. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-24-21 | Nets v. Jazz -8.5 | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Brooklyn at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. A lot of bettors got burned by the Nets last night, electing to fade them missing two of the big three against the Blazers in Portland. James Harden rose the occasion and Brooklyn pulled off the outright underdog win in that one. Now those same bettors might be quick to switch gears and back the Nets catching a generous helping of points in Utah tonight, especially with the Jazz returning home off a long road trip. I think that's the wrong move. Note that Brooklyn will be playing its fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities and three different time zones. That's not to mention the fact that it is without Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving while James Harden plays with a nagging neck injury (after being on the floor for 39 minutes last night). Utah has of course been one of the league's best bets this season, going 13-4 ATS as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by 13.6 points per game on average. I like the way the Jazz are set up here, noting that they've allowed just 100.6 points per game and outscored the opposition by 12 points per game after winning their previous contest by 20 points or more over the last three seasons. That's the case here after Utah closed out its road trip with a 25-point blowout win in Chicago on Monday. Take Utah (10*). |
|||||||
03-24-21 | Suns v. Magic OVER 213 | 111-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Magic's double-digit loss to the Nuggets last night. Despite Orlando's awful night offensively the game still ended up approaching the posted total. Tonight, I look for the Suns and Magic to eclipse what is a relatively-low total by today's NBA standards. Note that the Suns were also involved in a relatively low-scoring affair last night, posting a 110-100 win in Miami. Phoenix falls into an interesting situation here, as it has posted a 17-7 o/u record after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228.4 points. Meanwhile, the Magic are a solid negative momentum play defensively, supporting our cause with the 'over', as they give up 115.3 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of 222.8 points. I can certainly understand the logic behind the low posted total here as the first meeting between these two teams produced just 199 points in a Suns rout back on February 14th. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met in Orlando they combined to produce a whopping 242 total points in a Magic upset victory last season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-23-21 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in this same matchup last week but I'm going to come back with the same play in the rematch on Tuesday night. We won with the Lightning on Sunday as they poured it on late for a 5-3 victory over the Panthers. While they're certainly the superior team in this matchup, Dallas is set up reasonably well having allowed just 2.2 goals per game coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, and giving up just 2.6 goals per game on average at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 20-6 when the Stars play at home off of three losses in their last four games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. This will mark the 10th meeting between these two teams since the start of 2020 with Tampa holding Dallas to three goals or less in seven of the last nine matchups. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-23-21 | Lightning -163 v. Stars | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Lightning on Sunday and we'll come right back with them again on Tuesday night as they head to Dallas to face the Stars for the second time in a week. The Stars simply haven't been able to regain the magic that saw them make an improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final to face these same Lightning last fall. Considering they've been held to three goals or less in seven straight games, losing five of those, I question whether they can keep pace with the Lightning here. Note that Dallas is a miserable 1-7 when revenging a loss where its opponent scored four goals or more this season. Meanwhile, the Lightning have been a tremendous positive momentum play, having gone 34-10 coming off four or more straight wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They've outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. Take Tampa Bay (9*). |
|||||||
03-23-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Obviously the looming possibility of Thomas Greiss getting the start in goal for the Red Wings is concerning (Greiss has been awful this season) but I think it is offset by the way this situation sets up in general, supporting a play on the 'under'. The Predators are coming off an encouraging road trip that saw them win four games while also grabbing a point in an overtime loss over the course of eight games. This quote from Ryan Johansen has me concerned a letdown could be in order on Tuesday, however. "This was a make-or-break trip for us. We had to find a way to get points and win some games, and then we did that." Note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 with the Preds returning home following a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 10-1 when the Preds return home following a road win in which they scored four or more goals over the last three seasons, as is the case here. That spot has produced an average total of just 3.8 goals. Meanwhile, the Red Wings scoring woes have been well-documented. They average just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road following a division game over the last two seasons. On a positive note for Detroit, Nashville averages just 2.1 goals per game after winning three of its last four games over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic OVER 216 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Nuggets and Magic square off in Orlando. Denver still managed to shoot 50% from the field in Sunday's home loss to the Pelicans - its third straight game shooting 50% or better. Of course, that's nothing out of the ordinary as the Nuggets have shot 50% or better from the field in seven of their last 10 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 when the Nuggets come off a home loss this season, with those games averaging 226.6 total points. We've also seen an average total of 223.6 points scored when the Nuggets come off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. Orlando got bogged down in a matinee affair in Boston on Sunday, scoring just 96 points in a blowout loss. Keep in mind, in their most recent home game, the Magic scored 121 points in an upset win over the Nets (we won with Orlando in that contest). The Magic have been getting healthier and generally playing better basketball lately and should be able to take advantage of a Denver squad that ranks bottom-five in the league in both opponents' floor percentage and opponents effective field goal percentage over its last three games. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-23-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 112 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Devils are coming off six consecutive 'under' results but it's worth noting that five of those games were played at home (where they've been involved in mostly low-scoring affairs this season) and the lone road game came in Pittsburgh against a Penguins team that has been involved in a string of low-scoring games lately. We've seen quite a contrast in the Devils results at home compared to on the road. Note that New Jersey is averaging 3.2 goals per game away from home this season while giving up 3.0 goals per contest on a whopping 35.6 shots on goal per game. The 'over' has cashed at an 8-4 clip when New Jersey plays on the road compared to a 4-13 o/u mark on home ice. We won with the 'under' in the Flyers overtime loss here at home against the Islanders last night, snapping Philadelphia's streak of seven straight 'over' results. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 when the Flyers come off two straight losses against division opponents over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 8.3 goals. The 'over' is also a perfect 7-0 when Philadelphia checks in having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons with that situation producing 8.4 total goals on average. After being held to just six goals in a three-game set with the Penguins, the Devils should be excited at the prospect of facing a Flyers squad that has given up at least four goals in six of their last eight games overall. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | Top | 113-140 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Monday. There's a good chance that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be forced to miss Monday's game due to a nagging injury but that has only resulted in a slight shift in the total. After the first meeting between these teams sailed 'over' the total earlier this season, I believe the number will prove too high on Monday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-15 when the Pacers come off consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.6 points on average. The Pacers average just 107.8 points per game after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, as is the case here. That scoring average is well below their season average of 113.1 points per game. Likewise, with Indiana coming off of three straight games that reached 215 or more points this season, its next game has averaged just 220.7 total points, well south of the total we're dealing with tonight. The Bucks check in allowing just 103 points per game against division opponents over the last two seasons. After allowing 113 points in a win over a road-weary Spurs team that was playing the second of back-to-back nights on Saturday, and likely without Giannis in the lineup, I look for the Bucks to clamp down defensively in this one. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Florida State at 7:45 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in second round action on Monday night. The Buffaloes exploded for 96 points in a rout of Georgetown on Saturday but I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Monday's opponent, Florida State, entered the tournament ranked 12th in the nation in block percentage and 32nd in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. For its part, Colorado entered the tournament ranked a very respectable 41st in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 30th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Buffaloes 96-point outburst in the opening round was unlikely considering they rank north of 300th in the country in possessions per game. I expect a much different type of game to unfold against the Seminoles on Monday. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when Colorado comes off a game where 155 or more points were scored over the last two seasons with those contests totaling just 126.6 points on average. The 'under' is also 24-8 when Colorado plays after winning four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 132.3 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While I don't generally play a lot of Flyers 'unders' (for obvious reasons), I do like the way the spot sets up on Monday night. The Isles have of course shown a strong home-road dichotomy when it comes to totals this season. The 'under' has gone 14-2 in their 16 road games to date, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. Also note that the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 when the Isles play on the road after a home win against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 3.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Flyers have posted a 1-8 o/u mark when at home revenging a loss by 4+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. The 'under' is also 11-3 when the Flyers play on home ice after three consecutive games that saw at least seven goals scored, as is the case here. That situation has totaled an average of 4.8 goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Hurricanes -157 v. Blue Jackets | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Monday. |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Abilene Christian +5 v. UCLA | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
CBB East Region Game of the Year. My selection is on Abilene Christian plus the points over UCLA at 5:15 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with Abilene Christian as it continue on a Cinderella run here in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats shot a miserable sub-30% from the field in their opener against Texas but still managed to stage the upset thanks to an incredible defensive effort. That shouldn't have come as a big surprise as Abilene Christian has terrific at that end of the floor all season, entering the tournament ranked sixth in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 13th in opponents effective field goal percentage. That's not to mention the fact that the Wildcats are capable of ratcheting up the pressure, ranking third in the country in steals per possession. I'm not overly concerned by their awful shooting performance against Texas. Keep in mind, ACU entered the tourney ranked a respectable 67th in offensive efficiency and 55th in floor percentage, not to mention sixth in the country in extra scoring chances per game. I feel their up-tempo style could give UCLA some problems here, noting that ACU ranks 97th in possessions per game compared to the Bruins', who entered the tourney 288th. UCLA rode the hot hand of Johnny Juzang in its 'upset' win over BYU in the opening round. Juzang had been dealing with injuries and I do question what happens if he doesn't shoot the lights out again here. While ACU has had some issues taking care of the basketball this season, UCLA is unlikely to take advantage, ranking 299th in the country in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage entering this tourney. The Bruins have really been nothing special defensively either, ranking 156th in opponents floor percentage and 201st in opponents effective field goal percentage. Finally, I'll point to the fact that UCLA has gone just 3-11 ATS away from home after winning two of its last three games over the last three seasons, outscored by a whopping 11 points per game in that situation. Take Abilene Christian (10*). |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Oregon State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Oklahoma State at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. Oklahoma State held on for the cover against Liberty in its NCAA Tournament opener on Friday but I expect the Cowboys will be in for a tough challenge against red hot Oregon State on Sunday. The Beavers got hot at exactly the right time, improbably winning the Pac-12 Tournament last week before dominating a good Tennessee team in their opening round matchup on Friday. I like the matchup here as well. Oklahoma State has outscored the opposition by just 1.8 points per game after winning four of its last five games this season. In 14 situations where it has won five or six of its last seven games this season it has outscored opponents by just 0.5 points per game. While Oregon State is considered an upstart, it has actually posted a winning record away from home this season, allowing just 66.7 points per game. Albeit against a tougher schedule, Oklahoma State has allowed 72.9 ppg away from home this season. Note that entering this tournament, the Cowboys ranked just 135th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 79th in floor percentage while also ranking 270th in extra scoring chances per game. By contrast, Oregon State entered the tourney ranked 88th in extra scoring chances per game. Take Oregon State (10*). |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Bulls -3 v. Pistons | Top | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is a fine bounce-back spot for the Nuggets after suffering consecutive losses against the Spurs and Nuggets. Both of those losses could have gone either way and there's certainly no reason for Chicago to hang its head following a four-point setback in Denver. Somewhat surprisingly, the Bulls are actually a better team on the road than at home this season, posting a 9-8 record and outscoring the opposition by 2.6 points per game. Note that Chicago is a stellar 14-2 ATS on the road after posting three wins in its last four games ATS over the last three seasons. As we've noted before, the Pistons are not a good revenge team, having gone 25-40 ATS revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points in that situation. They're also a miserable 3-13 ATS after posting consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, outscored by 9.3 ppg in that spot. It's certainly worth mentioning that Detroit's last two wins came against a reeling Raptors squad and a dreadful Houston team. Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in this matchup on Friday night as the Knights skated to a 4-2 win to send it 'over' the total. I'll make the same play again on Sunday, however, noting that the 'under' has gone 24-12 when the Kings play at home after losing three of their last four games over the last two seasons. The Knights are giving up just 2.1 goals per game following an 'over' result this season. The 'under' is a solid 56-36 when they play for the fourth time in the last seven days over the last three seasons as well. With the 'over' having cashed in three straight meetings, we're seeing the total shaded to the over again here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Panthers v. Lightning -135 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Florida at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll take advantage of a rare short price to back the Lightning on Sunday afternoon as they aim to keep their winning streak intact against the rival Panthers. Florida is coming off a 2-0 bounce-back victory over the Predators yesterday but finds itself in a tough situation here. Note that the Panthers are 1-4 after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here. They're also 14-23 after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Lightning own a stellar 44-15 record against division opponents over the last two seasons and certainly haven't forgot the 6-4 loss they suffered at the hands of the Panthers here at home on February 15th. That marked Florida's first victory here in Tampa in their last five tries though and I look for the Lightning to get the season series back to an even 2-2 with a win on Sunday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Magic +8.5 v. Celtics | 96-112 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Boston at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have now won three straight and five of their last seven games ATS following a three-game ATS losing skid where many had left them for dead. We won with them in Friday's outright underdog win over the Nets and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Orlando has been a streaky team from an ATS perspective, having gone 19-5 ATS after winning four of its last five games ATS over the last three seasons, actually outscoring the opposition by 3.1 points on average in that situation. Boston has lost three consecutive games both SU and ATS and while most see this as a terrific bounce-back spot, I just think the Celtics might have a tough time getting fully focused on the Magic in a sleepy Sunday afternoon spot before heading out on the road for four games. Take Orlando (10*). |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Pacers v. Heat -195 | 109-106 | Loss | -195 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami (moneyline) over Indiana at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Pacers took the front-half of this two-game set in Miami but I look for the Heat to snap their two-game mini skid and post the victory on Sunday. Rather than lay the points here I'll pay the tariff to back the Heat on the moneyline. Note that Indiana hasn't won consecutive games since the second week of February. Similarly, the Heat haven't lost three games in a row since February 13th-17th and all three of those setbacks came on the road. Note that Indiana is 3-11 SU after scoring 110+ points in in two straight games this season. Meanwhile, Miami has gone a stellar 11-2 at home revenging a loss against an opponent this season. The Heat are a perfect 8-0 SU revenging a 20+ point loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 9.7 points on average in that spot. Take Miami moneyline (9*). |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois UNDER 133.5 | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Loyola-Chicago and Illinois at 12:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Illinois' opening round win over Drexel and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as the Illini take in Loyola-Chicago. The Ramblers play at one of the slowest paces in the entire nation, yet they're coming off an 'over' result in their opening round matchup - a 71-60 win over Georgia Tech. Note that in 10 games where the Ramblers played on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, those contests totaled an average of just 126.7 points. Loyola-Chicago entered the tournament ranked tops in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 14th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Of course, Illinois is no slouch defensively as we saw on Friday as it held Drexel to 30.6% shooting. While Loyola-Chicago will likely improve on that shooting performance here, I'm not convinced it will be enough to get this one 'over' the total. In what has the potential to be a tightly-contested affair it's worth mentioning that Illinois ranks 234th in the country in free throw percentage. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-20-21 | Hornets +9.5 v. Clippers | 98-125 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. This road trip hasn't gone as planned for the Hornets as they've dropped consecutive games by double-digit margins in Denver and here in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). I like the way they're set up to at least keep things competitive against the Clippers on Saturday, however. Note that Charlotte has gone 37-19 ATS off at least two losses in a row over the last three seasons, outscored by just 1.0 point per game in that situation. They're also an impressive 21-8 ATS after giving up 105+ points in three straight games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 points per game in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've outscored opponents by an average margin of just 5.9 points when returning home off a road game over the last three seasons. There's no reason for the Hornets to hang their heads here as they still have three games left on this road trip to turn things around. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how easy it will be for the Clips to get up for this two-game homestand against Eastern Conference opponents. Take Charlotte (10*). |
|||||||
03-20-21 | UCLA v. BYU OVER 138.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
CBB First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and BYU at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in UCLA's overtime victory over Michigan State in Thursday's First Four matchup and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Saturday as the Bruins take on the Cougars of BYU. As I noted in Thursday's analysis, Bruins head coach Mick Cronin noted during the Pac-12 Tournament that his team had 'hit a wall' both mentally and physically. I mentioned that I felt the week off following their exit from the Pac-12 Tournament might serve them well and that's precisely what appeared to be the case on Thursday as the Bruins played loose and scored 86 points (77 of those in regulation time), shooting better than 46% from the field and turning the ball over only eight times. I like the way this sets up as another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday. Note that UCLA checks in 38th in the nation in offensive efficiency and an even better 27th in floor percentage. For its part, BYU also ranks highly at the offensive end of the floor, sitting 42nd in offensive efficiency and 59th in floor percentage. While the Cougars also check in as a solid defensive team, it's certainly worth noting that they didn't face many elite offenses outside of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. In two matchups against Gonzaga, BYU gave up 82 and 88 points. While UCLA is by no means on the same level as Gonzaga, the point is still worth making as a now-healthy Bruins squad is certainly capable of giving the Cougars some heartburn defensively. I like the fact that neither team causes a great deal of chaos at the defensive end of the floor. UCLA ranks a miserable 299th in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. For its part, BYU ranks 329th and 220th in those two categories, respectively. While the Bruins don't prefer a fast pace, ranking 288th in possessions per game, they do make up for it by ranking 61st in extra scoring chances per game. This may not turn out to be a track meet, but it doesn't have to be with the total sitting in the 130's. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-20-21 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over San Antonio at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs guaranteed themselves a winning road trip with last night's 116-110 win in Cleveland. I can certainly see a scenario unfolding where they have a tough time keeping within arm's reach against a much better rested Bucks squad here on Saturday. For San Antonio, this will be its fifth game in the last seven nights (in five different cities). In fact, it will be the Spurs seventh game in seven different cities since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Bucks are home off two days' rest and this will mark just their fourth game in the last eight days and only their fifth since the All-Star break (in only three different cities). Note that Milwaukee has gone 28-15 ATS returning home following an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 14.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been outscored by 7.2 points per game on average as a road underdog over the last three seasons, and this is by no means a favorable situation (for the reasons noted above). Take Milwaukee (10*). |
|||||||
03-20-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes -185 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -185 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I have no problem laying the relatively steep price to back the Hurricanes on home ice against the Blue Jackets on Saturday. Columbus took the first game of this two-game set in Carolina on Thursday by a 3-2 score in overtime. That puts the Jackets in a tough spot here as they're averaging just 1.9 goals per game playing on the road off a one-goal road win over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. On six occasions where the Jackets have played on the road off a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, they've averaged just one goal per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals. Carolina allows just 1.9 goals per game and outscores the opposition by 1.0 goal on average when coming off an overtime loss over the last three seasons. Take Carolina (10*). |
|||||||
03-20-21 | Flames v. Maple Leafs -155 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Calgary at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Leafs struggles continued last night as they fell behind early and never recovered in a 4-3 loss against the Flames. I do expect Toronto to bounce back on Saturday night, however, noting that it has gone an incredible 15-4 after losing five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons. While Calgary did win last night, it is still a losing team on the road at 7-10 on the season, where it allows over three goals per game. Take Toronto (9*). |
|||||||
03-20-21 | Texas Southern v. Michigan -25 | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Texas Southern at 3 pm et on Saturday. I expect to see Michigan lay waste to Texas Southern on Saturday afternoon. Of course, credit the Tigers for advancing past Mount St. Mary's in come-from-behind fashion in their First Four matchup on Thursday, but they're likely to get drummed in this one. Note that Texas Southern ranks just 209th in the nation in offensive efficiency and a miserable 277th in turnovers per possession. While we didn't see it on Thursday, the Tigers generally look to push the pace but that will likely backfire against the Wolverines here. Michigan of course has a sour taste in its mouth after failing to reach the final in the Big Ten Tournament last weekend. The Wolverines check into this game ranked 17th in offensive efficiency, 21st in floor percentage, 24th in total rebounding percentage, eighth in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage - you get the picture. Texas Southern regularly got torched during its non-conference schedule, allowing 80+ points against Oklahoma State, St. Mary's-CA, Auburn and BYU. Here, unless the Wolverines completely look past the Tigers, they should be able to approach 90 while I don't see Texas Southern finding an easy path to 60. Take Michigan (10*). |
|||||||
03-20-21 | St Bonaventure +1.5 v. LSU | 61-76 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Bonaventure plus the points over LSU at 1:45 pm et on Saturday. LSU enjoyed a tremendous run in the SEC Tournament, reaching the final before falling by a single point against Alabama. The Tigers were largely inconsistent away from their home floor over the course of the season, however, going 7-7 SU and ATS while allowing north of 78 points per game. St. Bonaventure is an experienced team built for postseason success and we certainly saw that play out in the Atlantic-10 Tournament as the Bonnies defeated VCU to bring home the championship. I'm confident in the Bonnies ability to run their offense in this matchup, noting that LSU ranks 199th in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 226th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage this season. The Tigers also rank a miserable 258th in block percentage. Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure ranks ninth in opponents floor percentage and 54th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Bonnies also check in a very respectable 60th in extra scoring chances per game - by contrast, LSU is 154th in that department. As we saw in the SEC Tournament, the Tigers thrive in an up-tempo environment but I don't think the Bonnies will be interested in trading baskets on Saturday. Note that St. Bonaventure ranks 329th in the country in possessions per game and I'm confident it can use that slow pace to its advantage here. Take St. Bonaventure (10*). |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We've somewhat surprisingly seen a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams this season but I look for a return to 'normal' on Friday night as Vegas puts its four-game winning streak on the line in Los Angeles. Note that Vegas is giving up just 1.5 goals per game when going on the road off a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing at a 10-2 clip in that situation. The Knights are of course coming off consecutive one-goal wins over the Sharks earlier this week (we won with San Jose on the puck-line in both of those games). Meanwhile, the Kings have posted a 1-11 o/u record when playing at home off a win by 2+ goals against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of just 3.6 goals. The Kings posted a 4-1 victory over the reeling Blues two nights ago after that game was postponed on Monday with L.A. stuck in Denver due to a snowstorm. The Knights are allowing just 2.2 goals per game on the road this season but the Kings have been no slouches at home either, giving up just 2.7 goals per contest. They haven't given up more than three goals in a game here at Staples Center since back on February 9th against San Jose. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Winthrop +7 v. Villanova | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
CBB First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Winthrop plus the points over Villanova at 9:55 pm et on Friday. While Villanova is just two tournaments removed from a National Championship and head coach Jay Wright is deserving of all the respect he receives for putting together a title contender year in and year out, I believe this is a tough opening round matchup for the Wildcats against a Winthrop squad that 'checks all the boxes' as a potential Cinderella team here in March. We've seen some cracks in Villanova's armor down the stretch while Winthrop has just one blemish on its otherwise flawless resume, albeit against inferior opposition to what the Wildcats face on a game-to-game basis in the Big East. I'm not going to knock the Eagles for playing a lighter schedule though - what they've accomplished is certainly deserving of plenty of respect. Winthrop checks in ranked 7th in the nation in total rebounding percentage compared to Villanova's 116th. I really like the fact that the Eagles will be facing a Wildcats defense that hasn't proven to be all that active at its own end of the floor. Note that 'Nova ranks a miserable 343rd in the country in block percentage and 260th in steals per possession. Contrast that with Winthrop, which checks in 59th in steals per possession, while only slightly better in terms of block percentage at 264th. Defensively, Winthrop has been terrific, ranking 18th in opponents floor percentage, top-100 in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage and a respectable 127th in opponents effective field goal percentage. In order to stay inside the number tonight, taking advantage of any and all extra opportunities will be key and the Eagles check in top-five in the nation in extra scoring chances per game and also succeed at pushing the pace, ranking 48th in possessions per game. By contrast, 'Nova ranks 296th in possessions per game. The knock on the Eagles is their inability to knock down their free throws but we did see some improvement from them in that regard down the stretch, as they shot better than 74% from the free throw line in their last three games while the Wildcats saw some regression, knocking down just 66% of their free throw attempts over their last three contests. Maybe the Eagles freeze in the moment and Villanova's championship pedigree leads it to victory here, but I believe Winthrop has all the tools to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Winthrop (10*). |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Nets v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Magic haven't won a game since February 21st and are in what appears to be a tough spot here playing the second of back-to-back nights off a tough loss in New York on Thursday. With that being said, I believe they're being given too many points here. The Nets have won six games in a row, including a come-from-behind victory in Indiana (without Kyrie Irving) two nights ago. I do question how easy it will be for the Nets to get up for this one against the slumping Magic, however. The Magic have played hard off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 1.9 points per game in that situation, as is the case here. The Nets are outscoring opponents by just 5.2 points per game as a road favorite this season, well south of the spread we're dealing with tonight. Orlando has been getting healthier lately and we've seen signs of progress as it has gone 4-2 ATS over its last six games. I expect the Magic to use last night's close loss as a confidence-builder rather than a reason to be down on themselves here. Take Orlando (10*). |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Spurs v. Cavs +4.5 | 116-110 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over San Antonio at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Even without Demar Derozan, the Spurs have turned things around with consecutive wins over the Pistons and Bulls this week. I expect them to have a tough time staying up for this date with the lowly Cavs on Friday, however, with Derozan likely to miss once again. The Cavs finally won a game last time out with their young core showing up and showing out against the Celtics in a 117-110 victory. I look for some carry-over from that performance here. Note that the Spurs are just 6-16 ATS after winning three of their last four games over the last two seasons, outscored by 5.5 points on average in that situation. They're also a woeful 16-30 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by just 2.2 points per contest. Take Cleveland (10*). |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | 53-65 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State plus the points over Texas Tech at 1:45 pm et on Friday. In what has the potential to be a very low-scoring game, I'll grab all the points I can get with Utah State on Friday afternoon. The Aggies, of course, fell in the Mountain West Tournament championship against a terrific San Diego State team by double-digits in front of a national audience on CBS last Saturday. With that result fresh in the minds of a lot of bettors, I can understand Texas Tech being installed as a considerable favorite here. With that being said, the Aggies have been a 'tough out' all season long and I expect that to hold true here today. While Texas Tech ranks highly in most offensive categories, including just outside the top-50 in offensive efficiency and the top-20 in floor percentage, it will be up against a very capable Aggies defense that ranks an impressive second in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 15th in opponents effective field goal percentage. It's certainly worth noting that Utah State ranks third in the country in total rebounding percentage compared to Texas Tech, which checks in 97th. The Aggies possess an active defense that ranks 13th in block percentage as well and sit 29th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Both teams are comfortable playing at a relatively slow pace - again in a game that has the potential to be low-scoring, with both teams capable of knocking down their free throws, I look for this one going down to the wire. Take Utah State (10*). |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Drexel v. Illinois UNDER 143.5 | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Drexel and Illinois at 1:15 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Illinois' Big Ten Championship Game win over Ohio State last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Illini begin what they hope will be a deep NCAA Tournament run. While the Illini should handle Drexel without too much heartburn, there are a number of reasons why I believe the Dragons can at least keep things respectable and ultimately help keep this one 'under' the total. Drexel actually ranks 42nd in the nation in offensive efficiency this season and 50th in floor percentage. Against an Illinois defense that ranks 263rd in steals per possession and 224th in block percentage I do think the Dragons will be able to run their offense to a certain extent but I question how many productive possessions (possessions resulting in points) they'll have given Illinois ranks 34th in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage. Note that Drexel ranks 319th in the country in possessions per game so it isn't going to look to push the pace in this one. That's obviously a stark contrast to Illinois, which ranks 70th in possessions per game but I do think the Dragons can at least make a concerted effort to bog things down a little bit in this one - it's really their only hope of staying competitive. I'll also point out that Drexel ranks 235th in extra scoring chances per game while Illinois has also been quite average in that category, ranking 130th. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State OVER 134.5 | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Michigan State at 9:55 pm et on Thursday. In previous years this matchup may have set up as a defensive slugfest but given the current state of both programs, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair on Thursday night. Note that both UCLA and Michigan State have given up well north of 70 points per game away from home this season. Michigan State enters this game riding a six-game 'under' streak and admittedly played pretty solid defense down the stretch. I believe UCLA will give it some trouble on Thursday night, however. The time off since the Bruins made their unceremonious exit from the Pac-12 Tournament should have served them well as this was a team that head coach Mick Cronin admitted had 'hit the wall' near the end of a trying season due to injuries and otherwise. This 'First Four' berth gives the Bruins a new lease on life, so to speak. Note that UCLA ranks an impressive 28th in the nation in floor percentage this season and also checks in 62nd in the country in extra scoring chances per game. The problem for the Bruins is that they rank 199th in opponents effective field goal percentage, really not able to make life difficult on opposing offenses with any consistency over the course of the season. Michigan State got bogged down offensively at times but that's pretty much par for the course against some elite defensive teams in the Big Ten. Keep in mind, prior to the onset of conference play, the Spartans averaged 84.8 points per game in six non-conference tilts. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 239.5 | 93-101 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in an absolute thriller two nights ago with Damian Lillard bringing the Blazers all the way back in a 125-124 come-from-behind victory. I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair on Thursday, as the seemingly lofty total would suggest. I actually feel the total could be even higher than it is. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 when the total is set at 230+ points in games involving the Pelicans this season. That situation has produced an average total of 247.9 points. Interestingly, the Blazers have posted an 11-0 o/u record when playing at home off a game they won but failed to cover the spread, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 244.4 points. This series couldn't be much more higher-scoring with the last four meetings producing 249, 250, 243 and 255 total points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | Wild v. Avalanche -143 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. This is about as cheap of a price as you're going to see with the Avs playing at home and it has everything to do with the fact that the Wild have won five straight games. Keep in mind, those five straight wins all came at home. Now the Wild head out on the road to face what will be a revenge-minded Avs squad after Minnesota took the most recent meeting 6-2 in late February. Note that Colorado is 20-7 when revenging a loss where it allowed 4+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. The Avs are also 17-3 off a home win by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals per game. The Wild are 12-24 after recording consecutive wins by 3+ goals. Take Colorado (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | Thunder +7 v. Hawks | 93-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter this game banged-up but I give the Thunder the considerable edge in terms of motivation. Oklahoma City is coming off a 21-point drubbing at the hands of the Bulls in Chicago two nights ago but that sets it up well here, noting that the Thunder have gone 8-1 ATS off a road loss this season, outscored by just 0.8 points per game in that spot. They're 29-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons, outscored by just 3.4 points per game on average. Meanwhile, the Hawks are a miserable 4-14 ATS after posting four or five ATS wins in their last six games over the last two seasons, outscored by a whopping 12.3 points per game in that situation. While we're obviously talking about a much stronger Atlanta squad than we've seen in past years', I do question how much the Hawks will be up for this one after winning six straight games, with their last three victories coming by double-digit margins. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | Stars v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Detroit's most recent game - a 4-2 victory over Carolina on Tuesday night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the Wings host the Stars on Thursday night. Dallas suffered a 4-3 shootout loss against Tampa Bay two nights ago as it continues to struggle to post consecutive victories. Now the Stars head back on the road where they average just 2.4 goals per game this season. While the Red Wings are coming off a four-goal outburst on Tuesday, their offensive struggles have been well-documented. Note that they've posted an 0-6 o/u record when revenging a loss where they gave up 5+ goals this season, averaging just 1.3 goals per game in that situation. The 'under' is also 9-2 when the Wings come off a home win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with those games averaging just 5.1 total goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | Jazz v. Wizards +12 | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Utah at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Wizards have a quick turnaround here after losing on a last-second shot from De'Aaron Fox last night against the Kings. However, I would argue this is a much tougher game for Utah to get up for than Washington. The Jazz defeated the Celtics two nights ago in Boston and are playing in their third different time zone since the All-Star break having gone from Utah to San Francisco to Boston and now the short trip to Washington. Having gone just 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games, how interested are the Jazz in laying a beatdown on the Wiz here? Meanwhile, Washington has now lost five games in a row and would like nothing more than to play spoiler before heading on the road for three straight games in New York (one against the Nets and two against the Knicks). Note that while the Jazz are an impressive 15-5 ATS on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last three seasons, they've won those games by an average margin of just 4.6 points. The Wizards are 26-9 ATS when playing the second of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.4 points. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Hurricanes will undoubtedly be in a foul mood on Thursday night after dropping a 4-2 decision against the lowly Red Wings in Detroit on Tuesday. That game saw three power play goals scored in the first 13 minutes but only three more were scored the rest of the way including a Wings empty net goal. I look for a strong bounce-back performance from the Canes here at home against the Blue Jackets, who average just 2.1 goals per game on the road this season. Columbus is also looking to bounce back after suffering a 2-1 shootout loss against the Stars on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 30-16 when the Blue Jackets come off a one-goal loss in their last game over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Drake and Wichita State at 6:25 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as more of a grind-it-out, defensive battle than the oddsmakers are accounting for on Thursday. I expect to see both teams run their offenses in this one, with not a lot of fast break and transition points with both sides adept at taking care of the basketball. Note that Drake ranks an impressive ninth in the country in fewest turnovers per possession while Wichita State checks in a very respectable 24th. Drake is also 299th in the country in possessions per game with Wichita State in the middle of the pack in that department, ranking 168th. I'm not expecting either team to stray from their preferred style and really look to speed things up here with a berth in the field of 64 on the line. Drake is expected to have ShanQuan Hemphill back in the lineup for the first time since February but it remains to be seen how much he will contribute in his first game back. Both teams rank top-100 in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage this season, with Wichita State sitting in the top-50. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 when Wichita State follows two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 129.5 points. With the Missouri Valley Conference being quite top-heavy this season, Drake was able to pad its offensive stats against some weak opposition. Meanwhile, Wichita State - a former MVC member - now resides in the American Athletic Conference, which is known for its high-scoring, up-tempo teams. It all adds up to a relatively high posted total for this one, and I believe that number will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State +2 | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wichita State plus the points over Drake at 6:25 pm et on Thursday. All of the analytics seemingly point to Drake in this First Four matchup on Thursday night so it's not a surprise that the Bulldogs have flipped over to the favorite role. After a subpar showing in the AAC Tournament, however, I like the way this game sets up for Wichita State. Drake got off to a red hot start this season but injuries ultimately took their toll and the Bulldogs were never really able to regain that magic late, ultimately falling in the MVC Championship Game against Loyola-Chicago. The Bulldogs absolutely tore through their non-conference schedule but it was littered with beatable teams. Their season-opening win at Kansas State may have looked somewhat impressive at the time but the Wildcats turned out to be a Big 12 doormat. Meanwhile, Wichita State hung tough in key non-conference games against Missouri, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss, going 1-1-1 ATS. The Shockers also split a pair of matchups with eventual AAC champion Houston, going 2-0 ATS in the process. So many bettors were burned by Wichita State in its upset loss in the AAC Tournament semi-finals. We actually cashed a ticket fading them in the quarter-final round against South Florida last Friday (but lost with them on the ML against Cincinnati in the semis). Even with Drake getting healthier in time for this game (ShanQuan Hemphill is expected to return to the lineup for the first time since February), I believe the wrong team is favored in this one. Take Wichita State (10*). |
|||||||
03-17-21 | Sharks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Sharks on the puck-line on Monday and I don't see any reason not to back them again in Wednesday night's rematch in Vegas. The Sharks are 3-1 in their last four games, allowing just five goals in the process. As I noted in Monday's analysis, San Jose is as healthy as it has been all season so perhaps it's no surprise that it is finally playing well with some consistency. Note that the Sharks are 26-16 the last 42 times they've played with triple-revenge, as is the case here tonight. They've outscored opponents by 0.3 goals per game in that situation. The Knights have interestingly been at their worst after low-scoring games in recent years, going 8-16 after a game totaling three goals or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.8 goals per game in that spot. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
03-17-21 | Heat -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 85-89 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Memphis at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are fading fast right now, losers of three games in a row, allowing their last two opponents to shoot a combined 89-for-156 (57%) from the field. They're back home tonight and catch the Heat in a back-to-back spot but that's certainly been factored into this line. Keep in mind, Memphis is actually a losing team at home this season where it has been outscored by 3.0 points per game on average. The Heat are an even 10-10 on the road but enter tonight's game riding a six-game winning streak away from home. Having held five straight opponents to 45.3% or worse shooting, I like the way the Heat have locked down on defense lately and I'm confident they can add to the Grizzlies woes on Wednesday night. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
03-17-21 | Kings v. Wizards -2.5 | 121-119 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Sacramento at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a ticket fading the Kings on Monday night in Charlotte and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their eastern road swing in Washington. The Wizards have lost four straight games but they were underdogs in all four of those contests. This is clearly their best shot at a win on their current five-game homestand as a date with the Jazz looms tomorrow night. As I noted in Monday's analysis, the Kings have been awful following a loss this season and it ultimately boils down to poor coaching in my opinion. They've gone 6-17 ATS off a loss this season, outscored by 7.1 points on average in that situation. Under head coach Luke Walton, the Kings have gone 20-36 ATS following an ATS loss, outscored by 5.5 points per game on average. Look for the Wiz to bring an end to their losing streak here. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
03-16-21 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning finally saw their 'over' streak come to an end at five games in yesterday's 4-1 home loss to the Predators. While Tampa Bay had been lighting it up offensively prior to that contest, that had a lot to do with its schedule, having faced only the Blackhawks, Red Wings and Predators since the beginning of March. The last time the Lightning faced the Stars was on February 27th, when they skated to a 5-0 victory. That actually sets up the 'under' well in this spot, noting that Dallas has posted a 3-12 o/u record at home when revenging a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those games averaging just 4.4 total goals. While Dallas has been a general disappointment this season, it has performed reasonably well at home, where it gives up just 2.4 goals per game. Also note that the Stars have posted a 3-13 o/u record when returning home off a road game over the last two seasons, giving up just 2.2 goals per game in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks stayed competitive and covered the spread last night in Brooklyn but certainly showed signs of fatigue, shooting just 40% from the field and really only staying in it thanks to the Nets general disinterest in putting the game away. We won with the 76ers in Sunday's rout of the undermanned Spurs and I'm anticipating another convincing victory here on Tuesday. Further to my fatigue comment regarding the Knicks, note that they allowed the Nets to shoot 58% from the field last night. With a number of key cogs currently out of the lineup, I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot with New York heading home for a four-game homestand after this one. The 76ers continue to play without Joel Embiid but keep rolling along, winners of five games in a row ATS. They're a terrific positive momentum play having gone 14-4 ATS at home after scoring 115 points or more over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.6 points per game in that situation. They've generally been rock solid at home this season, where they outscore opponents by eight points per game, going 14-6 ATS in the process. The Knicks average 105.9 points per game when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 4.4 points. I expect them to have a tough time keeping within arm's reach for four quarters tonight. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
03-16-21 | Cavs v. Heat UNDER 213 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Miami at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a low total by today's NBA standards but it's warranted in my opinion. The Cavs will be playing just their third game since the All-Star break with neither of the previous two going well at all - blown out by 34 and 18 points at the hands of the Pelicans and Hawks. With that in mind, I do expect to see them play some defense here tonight and they draw perhaps a more favorable matchup with the Heat unlikely to really push the pace. Note that Miami's offense is below-average - the Heat haven't shot better than 50% from the field in a game just once since February 20th. On the flip side, Miami has been an excellent defensive team on its home floor, giving up just north of 107 points per game on below 44% shooting. This isn't a likely breakout spot for the Cavs offense, noting that they average just 98.7 points per game on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-15-21 | Sharks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Sharks have quietly gotten themselves on a bit of a roll lately, winning three straight games and outscoring the opposition 12-3 in the process. While I'm not going to call for the outright upset in Vegas on Monday, I do expect San Jose to give the Knights all they can handle. Of course, the Sharks motivation level should be sky-high for this one as they've dropped all three meetings against Vegas this season, including consecutive losses on home ice earlier this month. While San Jose has gotten healthier with Tomas Hertl among those returning to the lineup, the Knights are still without big offseason acquisition Alex Pietrangelo. Vegas is coming off back-to-back wins in St. Louis on Friday and Saturday but is actually in a tough spot here, returning home off a long road trip. Note that the Knights have gone 0-4 (small sample size, I know) and have been outscored by a wide average margin of 2.2 goals when playing at home off at least three consecutive games on the road over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Sharks are a strong positive momentum play here having gone 12-4 when on the road after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals per game in that situation. Going back much further, the Sharks are 26-15 when in a triple-revenge situation, as is the case here. We'll grab the insurance goal with San Jose here, noting that it has gone 9-3 when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line over its last 12 contests. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
03-15-21 | Grizzlies v. Suns -7 | 99-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Grizzlies are coming off a fourth quarter meltdown in Oklahoma City yesterday as they dropped a 128-122 decision as a big road favorite. Now they're in tough as they play the second half of a back-to-back against what will be a highly-motivated Suns squad coming off a double-digit home loss against the Pacers two nights ago. Memphis ranks second in the league in pace rating over its last five contests and I believe that's precisely what will get it into trouble tonight. Note that the Suns rank fifth in the league on offensive rating at home this season while checking in sixth in defensive rating at home. I certainly don't expect to see the Grizzlies shoot better than 50% from the field again tonight after they knocked down 51% of their shots yesterday. This one has the potential to get away from Memphis as it plays for the fourth time since the All-Star break (in three different cities). It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 37-0 ATS in all games involving the Suns this season. Take Phoenix (10*). |
|||||||
03-15-21 | Oilers v. Flames UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Flames went back to basics against the Canadiens over the last two games and it paid off as they posted consecutive low-scoring victories, 2-1 and 3-1. They'll host the rival Oilers on Monday night and I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair. The Oilers had a couple of offensive explosions against the Senators last week but outside of that, they've had a bit of a tough time offensively, scoring three goals or less in seven of their last nine games overall, including a 2-1 loss in Vancouver on Saturday. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 when the Oilers play on the road off a loss over the last two seasons, with those games averaging just 5.2 total goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 when Edmonton plays on the road after scoring one goal or less in its last game over the last two seasons, with those contests averaging just 4.3 total goals. Calgary has been pretty tough defensively on home ice this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game and 27.2 shots on goal per game. Both numbers represent vast improvements over how they've performed on the road. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-15-21 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 225 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Brooklyn at 8:05 pm et on Monday. New York turned in a peak offensive performance in Saturday's 119-97 rout of the Thunder in Oklahoma City with R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle going off for a combined 58 points on 20-of-36 shooting. Here, they'll obviously be facing a much tougher test against a Nets squad that while known for their offense, can play some defense as well. Brooklyn held Detroit to an almost unheard of (by today's NBA standards) 95 points on Saturday - the third time it has held an opponent to fewer than 100 points in its last nine games. Here, the Nets catch the Knicks in a favorable spot, with New York having averaged just 103.1 points per game after being involved in three straight games where at least 215 points were scored over the last three seasons. For whatever reason, the Knicks seem to get stronger defensively the longer they stay on the road. Off two consecutive road games this season, New York is allowing just 100.1 points per game. All Knicks road games have totaled an average of only 206.2 points, with the 'under' cashing at a 14-7 clip. The only previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled 225 points and that's likely why we're seeing a considerable bump in the total here (that first matchup saw a closing total of just 216.5 points). Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-15-21 | Capitals v. Sabres UNDER 6 | Top | 6-0 | Push | 0 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Sabres are in dire straights right now, having lost 10 consecutive games with no signs of turning things around. On a positive note, they did hold the Penguins to a single goal before giving up a pair of empty-net goals late in Saturday's 3-0 loss. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 when the Sabres come off a shutout loss over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 4.7 goals. The Capitals have won four games in a row and check in having scored exactly five goals in three straight games. That's obviously not a sustainable trend, noting that prior to that stretch the Caps had scored a grand total of nine goals in their last four games. The 'under' has gone an incredible 41-14 when a team that has allowed three goals or more in four straight games faces an opponent coming off three straight games where eight or more total goals were scored. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-15-21 | Bruins v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll call for a relatively low-scoring game between these two rivals on Monday night as the Bruins look to rebound following Saturday's 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Rangers while the Penguins aim to keep rolling off five straight victories. Note that the previous two meetings between these two teams this season have both stayed 'under' 5.5 goals. The 'under' is 8-1 when the Bruins play on the road off a loss by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling just 4.9 goals on average. The Pens have been outstanding at home this season, going 11-2 while averaging an impressive 3.9 goals per game. However, they average just 2.4 goals per game when coming off a win by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.8 total goals on average. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -151 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Charlotte (moneyline) over Sacramento at 7:05 pm et on Monday. It's time to start taking the Hornets seriously as they've moved over the .500 mark thanks to nine wins in their last 14 games. They barely broke a sweat in Saturday's rout of the undermanned Raptors and now wrap up their three-game homestand against the revenge-minded Kings on Monday night. Rather than lay the points with the Hornets here, I'll back them on the moneyline, only due to their tendency to get involved in extremely tight games. Note that Charlotte has wins by 3, 1, 3 and 2 points since February 20th. Sacramento checks in off a 121-106 loss in Atlanta on Saturday. The Kings have not been a good bounce-back team this season, going 6-16 ATS when coming off a loss, outscored by an average margin of 7.2 points in that situation. That's a coaching problem as far as I'm concerned. Under head coach Luke Walton, the Kings have gone 20-35 ATS off an ATS loss, outscored by an average margin of 5.4 points. I mentioned the Kings will be looking for revenge here, that's because they dropped a 127-126 decision at home against the Hornets on February 28th. Keep in mind, Sacramento has been outscored by 3.3 points per game when on the road revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. The Hornets went 0-3 straight-up the first three times they were favored this season but that was clearly a product of having a lot of new (and young) faces in the lineup. Since then, they've gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games as a favorite. Realizing the importance of keeping their win streak intact before heading out on a tough road trip, expect to see them improve on that mark tonight. Take Charlotte moneyline (10*). |
|||||||
03-14-21 | Cavs v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Cleveland at 7:35 pm et on Sunday. The Hawks avoided a possible 'trap' last night, dominating the Kings in a 121-106 victory. The fact that they're playing on back-to-back nights (and for the third time in four nights) is certainly being factored into the line here. I like the make-up of the Hawks rotation right now with Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic back healthy to contribute off the bench. Cam Reddish remains sidelined but let's face it, he's been a general disappointment in his sophomore season. The Cavs were playing reasonably well prior to the All-Star break but returned with a 34-point loss in New Orleans on Friday. Cleveland remains an awful road team and will face a motivated Hawks squad here after Atlanta dropped a 112-111 decision as eight-point favorites on the road against the Cavs back on February 23rd. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
03-14-21 | Spurs v. 76ers -2.5 | 99-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Antonio at 6:35 pm et on Sunday. The 76ers have faced some Covid-related adversity out of the All-Star break with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons sidelined in their first game back - a convincing win in Chicago - before Embiid returned for Friday's rout of the Wizards. Here, the Sixers draw another favorable matchup against the Spurs. San Antonio delivered a blowout victory at home against the Magic on Friday, successfully bouncing back from a loss in Dallas two nights earlier. The fact that the Spurs won that game on Friday without Demar Derozan was impressive but there's a big difference between beating a team like the Magic at home and going out on the road and competing with the red hot 76ers. I simply feel this line will prove too short, even if the 76ers are once again missing key cogs. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
03-14-21 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 106 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Detroit at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. The Red Wings have been involved in some improbably high-scoring games lately (considering how many low-scoring contests they were involved in during the first month of the season. The 'over' actually checks in 6-1 in the Wings last seven games. I believe we're in line for a low-scoring affair in the Motor City on Sunday, however, with the Hurricanes rolling into town. This is obviously a bit of a tough spot for the Canes from a motivation standpoint. They come in on the heels of seven straight wins and a four-game homestand. That homestand is notable as they average just 1.0 goal per game (you read that right) the last seven times they've gone on the road following four consecutive games at home over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Red Wings have averaged just 1.7 goals per game when playing at home revenging a loss where they gave up five goals or more (as is the case here) over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 88-91 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. Illinois has absolutely lit it up through two games at this tournament, scoring 90 and 82 points in wins over Rutgers and Iowa. It faces a much tougher defensive challenge on Sunday, however, in the form of a streaking Ohio State squad. The Buckeyes limited a terrific Michigan team to 67 points on 35% shooting yesterday, and the Wolverines only got to that number thanks to a desperate late scoring flurry. While Illinois obviously poses a stiff test, the Buckeyes did hold the Illini to 73 points despite allowing them to shoot 52% from the field in a losing effort just last weekend. I certainly don't anticipate Illinois shooting better than 50% today with a Big Ten Championship on the line. Illinois gave up 71 points in yesterday's win but that was the first time it allowed north of 70 points since February 23rd against Michigan State. Don't count on Ohio State shooting better than 50% from three-point range again today. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-14-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Wild | 1-4 | Loss | -148 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Minnesota at 2:05 pm et on Sunday. This is a much easier game for the Coyotes to get up for than the Wild - an early Sunday afternoon start in Minnesota. That's because Arizona was blown out 4-0 in the first of this three-game set between these two teams on Friday night. That sets the Wild up poorly here, noting that they've gone 12-19 at home after scoring four or more goals in their previous game over the last three seasons, giving up 3.0 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Coyotes are a solid 12-5 after scoring two goals or less in two straight games over the last two seasons, averaging an impressive 3.3 goals per game in that situation. Additionally, the 'Yotes are 16-6 after losing two or more games in a row over the last two seasons, averaging 3.4 goals per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that situation. We'll grab the insurance goal here but hopefully won't need it. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Capitals v. Flyers -107 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Capitals have certainly had the Flyers number this past week but I'm willing to go back to the well with Philadelphia here as the situation sets up well for the home side. Note that the Flyers have gone a perfect 7-0 when coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.8 goals in that situation. They're also an exceptional 14-3 after losing four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, averaging 3.9 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. Keep in mind, prior to dropping its last two games against the Caps, Philadelphia had won five consecutive meetings in this series. With the Caps allowing three goals per game on the road this season, I still feel they're vulnerable and look for the Flyers to finally put one over on them on Saturday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Blackhawks v. Panthers -157 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blackhawks snapped their two-game skid with a 4-2 win in Dallas on Thursday but I look for them to go back to their losing ways on Saturday as they take on the red hot Panthers. Florida is coming off an improbable comeback win in Columbus on Thursday, rallying from a 4-1 third period deficit to win the game in overtime. Now the Cats are back home where they've gone 10-2-1 this season. The Blackhawks certainly prefer to play an up-tempo style but that plays right into the hands of the Panthers, who rank fifth in the league in goals per game this season. Florida also ranks tops in the league in shots on goal per game which spells trouble for a Blackhawks team that ranks 19th in goals per game allowed and 31st in shots on goal per game allowed. Take Florida (10*). |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Bucks v. Wizards +11 | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Wizards are 0-2 SU and ATS coming out of the All-Star break and most will expect them to get blown out by the mighty Bucks here, who returned from the break with a rout of the Knicks. I’ll go the other way and grab the points with the Wiz as I see this as a very difficult game for Milwaukee to get up for. Note that the Bucks are just 14-27 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons. Meanwhile the Wiz are 25-9 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games over the last three seasons and have been out scored by just 4.3 points per game off a loss by 20+ points over the same period. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Georgetown v. Creighton -7.5 | 73-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Georgetown at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. While Georgetown has been a terrific story in the Big East Tournament I expect its magic to run out on Saturday as it runs into a streaking Creighton squad. We've picked our spots wisely with Creighton lately, fading them in their 12-point loss at Villanova on March 3rd and then backing them in last Saturday's 20-point rout of Butler. Credit the Blue Jays for winning a rare low-scoring contest by a 59-56 score against Connecticut yesterday. Here, I look for the Jays offense to once again get rolling and ultimately overwhelm the Hoyas. Georgetown has drew a somewhat favorable schedule this week, first facing an average Marquette squad before upsetting an undermanned Villanova team and then beating Seton Hall in what was virtually a toss-up game. This is a much tougher matchup for Georgetown, noting that it split a pair of meetings with Creighton this season but dropping a 15-point decision the last time they met. Take Creighton (10*). |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and San Diego State at 6 pm et on Saturday. This has all the makings of one of Saturday's most entertaining games but that certainly doesn't mean we should expect a track meet. Both teams are capable of playing lock down defense although San Diego State is coming off an uncharacteristically high-scoring affair in last night's 77-70 win over Nevada. I expect a return to 'normal' here on Saturday. Utah State had little trouble getting past a good Colorado State team last night, allowing just 50 points in a double-digit victory. The Aggies check in eighth in the country in defensive rating. For their part, the Aztecs rank 11th in defensive rating. When these two teams met back on January 16th they combined to score 123 points. This feels like it could be a 'first to 60 wins' type of game. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Iowa v. Illinois -4 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Illinois minus the points over Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Iowa has generally been a 'public' team all season so perhaps it's not surprising that we're dealing with such a short pointspread here on Saturday. Few teams in the country are playing as well as Illinois right now, howver, and I look for the Illini to take care of business and advance to the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game. While Iowa was involved in a hard-fought battle against Wisconsin last night (we won with the 'under'), Illinois had a glorified scrimmage against Rutgers, winning by 22 points. Despite barely breaking a sweat, the Illini still managed to score 90 points, which speaks to just how well they're playing right now. The lone regular season matchup between these two teams was decided by five points with Illinois prevailing. I look for the Illini to improve on that winning margin here today. Take Illinois (10*). |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Cincinnati v. Wichita State -170 | 60-59 | Loss | -170 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wichita State (moneyline) over Cincinnati at 3 pm et on Saturday. Short on time so I'll keep my analysis short for this one. The Shockers are the better team and they should take advantage of a Cincinnati squad that 'upset' SMU yesterday with the Mustangs coming off a one month layoff due to Covid. Shockers were nearly upset by South Florida yesterday (and we won with the Bulls) but here I expect them to turn in a much more complete performance. Take Wichita State (moneyline) 10*. |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan -6 | 68-67 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Ohio State at 1 pm et on Saturday. It took them a while to get going but once they did, Michigan had little trouble brushing aside Maryland in yesterday's 13-point quarter-final victory. While the Wolverines will face a tougher challenge in Ohio State on Saturday, I expect them to be up for it. The Buckeyes built a big early lead but couldn't hold it in the second half and ultimately needed overtime to get past Purdue yesterday. It has certainly been an uneven stretch for Ohio State as it has won just twice in its last six games overall. I simply feel there's a class difference in this matchup that isn't being properly reflected in the line. After a relatively close matchup in the regular season (Michigan won 92-87) look for the Wolverines to post a convincing victory on Saturday. Take Michigan (10*). |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. The Pacers went into the All-Star break on a real sour note having lost five of their last six games (0-6 ATS) and will certainly have no trouble getting up for this matchup with Lebron and the Lakers in Los Angeles on Friday night. Note that Indiana has gone a stellar 11-1 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 15.1 points when dropping the cash in six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here. The Lakers also entered the break as a downtrodden squad having lost back-to-back games and six of their last eight games overall. Having lost their most recent game in Sacramento, the Lakers are set up poorly here, having actually been outscored by an average margin of 1.6 points following a road loss over the last three seasons. Take Indiana (10*). |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Sharks v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Ducks have now seen the 'over' cash in three straight games but I look for that streak to come to an end on Friday night. Note that the last 11 times the Ducks have come off three consecutive 'over' results, the 'under' has gone 9-2 with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also a stellar 10-1 when the Ducks play at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those games totaling a ridiculously low average of 4.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks notched a win over the Blues last time out but that sets them up poorly here as they average just 1.8 goals per game off a victory this season. The last two meetings in this series have totaled just five and three goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Nevada v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Nevada at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We're able to back the Aztecs at a bit of a discount here thanks to Nevada's upset win over Boise State yesterday combined with San Diego State's narrow escape against Wyoming. Keep in mind, the Aztecs were favored by double-digits in both regular season matchups with Nevada. Both games were close but I look for the Wolf Pack to run out of gas and ultimately for the Aztecs to pull away for a convincing victory tonight. San Diego State is one of the best defensive teams in the country and that's what it takes to win a tough conference tournament like the Mountain West. Note that the Aztecs allow just 59.6 points per game away from home this season. Compare that with Nevada, which gives up north of 72 ppg away from home. San Diego State is a terrific positive momentum play here, noting that it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.7 points off consecutive wins over the last three seasons. Hammering down further, the Aztecs are 13-5 ATS and outscore opponents by 13.3 points per game when playing away from home following three or more wins in a row over the last two seasons. Nevada hasn't fared particularly well in revenge situations, allowing 79.8 points per game when revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. Take San Diego State (10*). |
|||||||
03-12-21 | South Florida +9 v. Wichita State | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Wichita State at 12 noon et on Friday. While it does check in as the one-seed and has already defeated South Florida twice this season, I think Wichita State is going to play a near perfect game to cover this lofty pointspread. I'm just not convinced we'll see that peak level of performance from the Shockers here. I like the fact that South Florida doesn't need to rely on jacking up threes to stay competitive in a game like this with the Bulls ranking in the top-third in the country in percentage of points from two-pointers this season at north of 52%. I also like that the Bulls have a significant advantage on the glass, ranking an impressive 40th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (they also check in a respectable 110th in defensive rebounding percentage). Wichita State isn't going to overwhelm South Florida with pressure defense either, noting that it ranks 274th in the country in steals per possession. USF shot miserably in both regular season meetings with Wichita State yet still managed to take one of those games down to the wire losing by only five points. Expect another competitive affair today. Take South Florida (10*). |
|||||||
03-12-21 | California v. Colorado -13.5 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado minus the points over California at 11:30 pm et on Thursday. I have no problem laying the points with Colorado here as it looks to avenge a stunning nine-point loss suffered as a nine-point favorite at Cal back on February 13th. Cal staged another upset last night, blowout Stanford out of the water as an 8.5-point underdog. I don't expect history to repeat itself here, however. Note that Cal has been outscored by an average margin of 14.5 points when coming off a win over a conference opponent over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Colorado has outscored opponents by an average margin of 14.1 points as a favorite this season, including a 29-point rout of Cal back on January 14th. The Buffaloes clearly looked past the Bears in their most recent meeting but I don't expect to see them get caught flat-footed again here. Take Colorado (10*). |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Suns v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Suns crushed the Blazers by 32 points in Phoenix the last time these two teams met back on February 22nd. This time around, I'm expecting Portland to put up a much tougher fight as it catches the Suns in a favorable situation. Note that Phoenix has inexplicably been outscored by 10.6 points per game on average when playing on the road following a home game over the last three seasons. Further exacerbating things is the fact that the Suns are 0-8 ATS when playing on three or more days' rest over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 10.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Blazers check in 17-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.5 points on average. Looking up at Phoenix in the Western Conference standings, look for the Blazers to take a stand at home on Thursday night. Take Portland (10*). |
|||||||
03-11-21 | UNLV v. Utah State -10 | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over UNLV at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Aggies in what amounts to a road game against UNLV in Mountain West quarter-final action on Thursday night. Note that the Aggies have gone 8-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, winning those games by a whopping 26.9 points per game. In fact, over the last two seasons, Utah State has outscored opponents by 23 ppg as a double-digit favorite so it is certainly comfortable in this situation. UNLV posted a 28-point rout of Air Force yesterday but prior to that had gone 3-10 ATS over its last 10 games. The Aggies will undoubtedly have their guard up after only managing to split two games against UNLV during the regular season with the loss coming in a bit of a hangover spot following a tough home loss against Colorado State. Take Utah State (10*). |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Blackhawks v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -122 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Tuesday's matchup between these two teams but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Thursday. Note that the Stars are allowing just 2.1 goals per game at home off a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. Dallas' six-goal outburst on Tuesday was uncharacteristic, noting that it has averaged just 2.4 goals per game after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons. As far as the Blackhawks go, virtually all signs point to a high-scoring result as that has been the long-term trend. However, this season they're averaging just 2.4 goals per game on the road. They've scored a grand total of 10 goals in the last six meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Celtics +2.5 v. Nets | 109-121 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Celtics went into the All-Star break riding a four-game winning streak and they come out of it as healthy as they've been all season with Marcus Smart expected to return to the lineup on Thursday night. Note that Boston has been tremendous in an underdog role over the last two seasons, going 23-11 ATS and actually outscoring its opponents by an average margin of 0.8 points. The Celtics have also outscored the opposition by an average margin of 3.1 points when on the road revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. With the Nets missing Kevin Durant and Boston chasing them in the Atlantic Division standings this would be an opportune time for the C's to stage an upset. Take Boston (10*). |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Sean Murphy ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC UNDER 138 | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
03-28-21 | Panthers v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
03-28-21 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143.5 | 58-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
03-28-21 | Suns v. Hornets OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
03-28-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis UNDER 135.5 | 64-77 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
03-27-21 | Jets v. Flames -125 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
03-27-21 | Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 229.5 | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
03-27-21 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 225.5 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
03-27-21 | Panthers +100 v. Stars | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas OVER 159 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech +1 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
03-27-21 | Oregon State v. Loyola-Chicago -6.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
03-26-21 | Sharks +105 v. Coyotes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
03-26-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
03-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 228 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
03-26-21 | Nets -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
03-25-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -178 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis UNDER 143 | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
03-25-21 | Panthers -123 v. Blackhawks | 0-3 | Loss | -123 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
03-25-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
03-25-21 | Blazers v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
03-25-21 | Hurricanes v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State UNDER 146 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
03-24-21 | Kings v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
03-24-21 | Nets v. Jazz -8.5 | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
03-24-21 | Suns v. Magic OVER 213 | 111-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
03-23-21 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
03-23-21 | Lightning -163 v. Stars | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
03-23-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic OVER 216 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
03-23-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 112 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | Top | 113-140 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
03-22-21 | Hurricanes -157 v. Blue Jackets | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
03-22-21 | Abilene Christian +5 v. UCLA | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Oregon State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Bulls -3 v. Pistons | Top | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
03-21-21 | Panthers v. Lightning -135 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Magic +8.5 v. Celtics | 96-112 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
03-21-21 | Pacers v. Heat -195 | 109-106 | Loss | -195 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois UNDER 133.5 | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
03-20-21 | Hornets +9.5 v. Clippers | 98-125 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
03-20-21 | UCLA v. BYU OVER 138.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes -185 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -185 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Flames v. Maple Leafs -155 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
03-20-21 | Texas Southern v. Michigan -25 | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
03-20-21 | St Bonaventure +1.5 v. LSU | 61-76 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
03-19-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
03-19-21 | Winthrop +7 v. Villanova | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Nets v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Spurs v. Cavs +4.5 | 116-110 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | 53-65 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
03-19-21 | Drexel v. Illinois UNDER 143.5 | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State OVER 134.5 | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 239.5 | 93-101 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Wild v. Avalanche -143 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Thunder +7 v. Hawks | 93-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Stars v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Jazz v. Wizards +12 | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State +2 | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
03-17-21 | Sharks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
03-17-21 | Heat -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 85-89 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
03-17-21 | Kings v. Wizards -2.5 | 121-119 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
03-16-21 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
03-16-21 | Cavs v. Heat UNDER 213 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
03-15-21 | Sharks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
03-15-21 | Grizzlies v. Suns -7 | 99-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
03-15-21 | Oilers v. Flames UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
03-15-21 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 225 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
03-15-21 | Capitals v. Sabres UNDER 6 | Top | 6-0 | Push | 0 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
03-15-21 | Bruins v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -151 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
03-14-21 | Cavs v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
03-14-21 | Spurs v. 76ers -2.5 | 99-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
03-14-21 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 106 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 88-91 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
03-14-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Wild | 1-4 | Loss | -148 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
03-13-21 | Capitals v. Flyers -107 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Blackhawks v. Panthers -157 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
03-13-21 | Bucks v. Wizards +11 | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Georgetown v. Creighton -7.5 | 73-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
03-13-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Iowa v. Illinois -4 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
03-13-21 | Cincinnati v. Wichita State -170 | 60-59 | Loss | -170 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
03-13-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan -6 | 68-67 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
03-12-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Sharks v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
03-12-21 | Nevada v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
03-12-21 | South Florida +9 v. Wichita State | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
03-12-21 | California v. Colorado -13.5 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
03-11-21 | Suns v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
03-11-21 | UNLV v. Utah State -10 | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
03-11-21 | Blackhawks v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -122 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
03-11-21 | Celtics +2.5 v. Nets | 109-121 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 37 m | Show |