Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-09-21 | Mavs v. Cavs OVER 216.5 | 124-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in this same matchup two nights ago in Dallas as the Mavs were in a clear letdown spot one night after outlasting Brooklyn in a nationally-televised matchup. Even with that situation, and the fact that Dallas shot worse than 50% and didn't play at a particularly fast pace against an awful Cavs defense, it still managed to score 110 points. Meanwhile, the Cavs still contributed enough offense to get the final score to 200 points despite turning in two sub-20-point quarters and shooting worse than 39% from the field. While I'm certainly not high on the Cavs offense with Darius Garland sidelined, I do think they can do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total on Sunday night. After holding three straight opponents to 46.4% shooting or worse, some regression should be in order for the Dallas defense in this spot. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Mavs coming off consecutive home games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 230.0 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 29-17 with the Cavs coming off at least three straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 223.0 points. The Cavs are in dire straights defensively right now, having allowed six of their last seven opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and and 12 of their last 13 opponents to shoot 48.3% or better. Finally, note that the 'over' has cashed in three of the last five meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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05-09-21 | Pirates +155 v. Cubs | 6-5 | Win | 155 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this one sets up for the Pirates as they look to salvage the finale of this series in Chicago. Tyler Anderson has been an undervalued commodity for the Buccos so far this season. He owns a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and his advanced stats are even better. Anderson has been better than the MLB average in terms of both hard-hit ball percentage and exit velocity off opposing bats while limiting opposing hitters to a collective .225 batting average. He's improved on his strikeout and walk rate and has posted a solid 2.2% home run percentage. Kyle Hendricks will counter for Chicago. He's off to a tough start this season having recorded a 37.4% ground ball percentage - well south of his career average in that department. He has also had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, posting an 8.0% home run percentage and a .315 opponents batting average. The Pirates have been right there with the Cubs in the first two games of this series, losing both games by 3-2 scores. Look for them to get over the hump on Sunday afternoon. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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05-09-21 | Diamondbacks +275 v. Mets | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over New York at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll take a shot with the slumping D'Backs here as they look to avoid a second consecutive sweep on the road. The Mets are massive favorites here with Jacob DeGrom taking the ball but it's worth noting that they've managed to win just five of his last 11 starts going back to last August. There's nothing negative I can say about New York's ace but for whatever reason we rarely see the Mets offense show up when he takes the hill. Riley Smith will be tasked with keeping the D'Backs in this one. He has more than held his own through his first 40 1/3 big league innings, recording a 34.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's been better than the MLB average in terms of walk percentage while also posting a terrific 1.8% home run percentage. I'm confident Smith can at least give his slumping club a shot in this one and we'll look for the Mets offense to let DeGrom down once again. Take Arizona (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Thunder v. Warriors -14 | Top | 97-136 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors have already crushed the Thunder twice this season including two nights ago as they rolled to a 21-point victory. I don't mind laying all the points with the Warriors here as they check in playing phenomenal defensive basketball having held four straight opponents to 43.3% or worse shooting. They won three of those four games, with all three victories coming by at least 15 points. The Thunder are simply playing out the string at this point and have managed to shoot better than 40.9% just once over their last five contests. While they'll be looking for quick revenge here, no more so than last time out as they were looking to avenge an even more lopsided 147-109 loss at home back on April 14th. The fact is, the Thunder are overmatched against most opponents right now and the Warriors aren't likely to sleepwalk through this one as they continue to fight for playoff positioning in a crowded Western Conference. Note that the SU winner has also covered the spread in 40 of the Warriors last 41 games overall. I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Dodgers v. Angels +131 | 14-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Angels over the Dodgers at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers are a mess right now, losers of 10 of their last 12 games and while they appear to be in good position to snap their current four-game skid behind Clayton Kershaw on Saturday, I'm not sure it will play out that way on the field. The Angels snapped a losing skid of their own last night, winning for the first time in six games. Tonight they'll turn to Dylan Bundy, who is quickly becoming one of the top arms on their staff. Bundy was quietly terrific last season, finishing top-nine in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He's picked up right where he left off this season, recording a 26.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.6 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's held opposing hitters to a collective .224 batting average after posting a stellar .208 opponents batting average last season. Kershaw is off to a fine start as well but has been given three runs or less of support in four of his last five starts. The Angels have gone 2-5 against left-handed starters this season but there's been some bad luck involved in that as they actually average slightly more runs per game (4.7) against southpaw starters than against righties. Take the Angels (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Ducks v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Wild skated to a 4-3 overtime victory. The Ducks set the tone for that one with an early goal in the game's first eight minutes but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday night. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Ducks coming off consecutive games in which they scored three goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.7 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 14-5 with the Ducks coming off an 'over' result this season. They average just 1.7 goals per game in that spot with an average total of only 4.9 goals. On a positive note, Anaheim does check in allowing just 1.6 goals per game when playing on the road after losing two of its last three games this season. That situation has come up nine times with those games averaging only 3.8 total goals. The Wild have performed well offensively in recent weeks but off six consecutive one-goal games - with the last two decided in overtime - I certainly feel a letdown could be in order here. Minnesota would like nothing more than to jump ahead early and manage the game the rest of the way, noting that it has allowed just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Despite last night's result, the 'under' has still cashed in five of the last six meetings in this series here in Minnesota and eight of the last 13 matchups overall over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Blue Jays +135 v. Astros | 8-4 | Win | 135 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. After getting drummed in the opener of this series last night I look for the Blue Jays to respond with a victory of their own on Saturday. Steven Matz has been solid for the Jays in the early going this season, checking in with a 48.3% ground ball percentage and a .238 opponents batting average. He'll be up against Astros starter Cristian Javier, who owns an eye-popping 1.75 ERA and 0.90 WHIP but has also posted a 42.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 37.3% fly ball percentage. After recording a lofty 5.1% home run percentage during his rookie campaign last year he's brought that number down to 1.0% so far this season but I'm expecting some regression to the mean in that department. Note that the Jays check in 16-8 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 10 runs or more over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs in that situation. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Devils v. Islanders -220 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Islanders have picked a bad time to start slumping, losers of three games in a row against non-playoff opponents in the Sabres and Devils. It hasn't been for lack of trying as they've fired 81 shots on goal over the last two games. Here, I look for the Isles to finally get back in the win column as they fall in a positive situation having gone 25-12 after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Isles head coach Barry Trotz has a way of getting his teams back up after a tough stretch, with his teams having gone 20-5 the last 25 times they've come off consecutive losses against division opponents, as is the case here. Note that the Devils have allowed a whopping 4.5 goals per game when playing on the road after allowing one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that spot. New Jersey's victory on Thursday night was just their second in their last six tries over the last three seasons here on Long Island. Look for the Isles to get back on track here before a tough regular season finale on the road against the Bruins. Take New York (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Coyotes v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' and the Sharks on the puck-line in their 3-2 upset victory over the Avalanche on home ice two nights ago. Here, I'll go the other way and back the 'over' as defense has been optional in this series so far this season. The 'over' has actually cashed in 10 of the last 13 meetings in this series, including three of the last five here in San Jose. We've seen four of six meetings in this series this season reach at least seven total goals. The Coyotes check in off three straight losses, scoring exactly two goals in each game. They should be able to improve on that production here, however, noting that they average 3.6 goals per game when coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons and face a Sharks squad that has allowed 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season. San Jose has scored at least four goals in three of its last six contests, averaging 3.3 goals per game over that stretch. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 with the Sharks coming off a one-goal victory on home ice, with those contests totaling an average of 6.9 goals. Arizona has struggled to keep the puck out of its net on the road all season, allowing an average of 3.3 goals per game. With both teams simply playing out the string at this point and both surprisingly healthy up front at this late stage of the season, I'm anticipating some offensive fireworks on Friday night in Silicon Valley. Take the over (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights -158 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over St. Louis at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams will be heading to the postseason but the Knights have a little more to play for in this two-game set as they try to lock up home ice advantage throughout with an outside shot at grabbing the league's top overall seed. They'll also be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 3-1 loss in St. Louis back on April 7th (the Knights outshot the Blues 51-35 in that game). Note that Vegas has gone an incredible 17-2 when revenging a road loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. The Knights are a terrific positive momentum play here having gone 27-7 all-time off a one-goal victory over a division opponent, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. It's the opposite story for the Blues as they limp to Las Vegas off an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Ducks. Note that St. Louis has gone a miserable 11-21 when coming off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. The Blues also check in 3-8 after winning four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, allowing 3.2 goals per game in that spot. While we have seen a few defensive lapses from the Knights lately, those have been few and far between here at home, where they allow just 2.2 goals per game on the season. Take Vegas (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Cavs v. Mavs UNDER 221 | Top | 90-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday. Cleveland catches Dallas in an advantageous spot on Friday night, rested and waiting while the Mavs were involved in a thrilling victory over the Nets in a marquee showdown just last night. Of course, the Cavs don't really have the personnel to take full advantage as they check in having lost eight straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall. I do think we at least see the Cavs show some pride defensively here after allowing 122 or more points in four straight games and six consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. This isn't a spot where we're likely to see the Mavs go off offensively on the second of back-to-back nights. There's always the chance that they end up resting some starters (most notably Luka Doncic) although we'll operate under the assumption that they'll have the same lineup that we saw last night at the very least. Note that the Mavs have actually been a weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 110.6 points per game on 46.6% shooting entering last night's contest. After last night's game managed to say 'under' the total, the 'under' is now 20-14 with the Mavs playing at home this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-13 in all Cavs road games this season, where they average just 100.1 points per game on 44.1% shooting. Their offense isn't operating with much efficiency right now, largely due to the absence of standout sophomore Darius Garland, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. There seem to be a lot of instances where the Cavs are just standing around waiting for Collin Sexton to take over the game. He's a dynamic scorer to be sure, but he obviously needs help for the Cavs to be competitive. Note that Cleveland has shot 43.4% or worse from the field in four of its last six games, most recently shooting 40.2% in a 36-point rout at the hands of the Blazers, at home no less. Take the under (10*). |
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05-07-21 | White Sox v. Royals +143 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Royals will be happy to face a team other than the Indians after getting swept in a four-game series. On Friday they'll hand the ball to Brad Keller, who has struggled in the early going this season, but has still managed to alternate team wins and losses in his six starts to date. Note that the Royals are 10-2 all-time with Keller starting at home against A.L. Central opponents, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 runs. Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon owns a career 3-4 team record in seven starts against the Royals. He's off to a tremendous start this season, including of course a no-hitter. I do think some regression is coming, however, noting that the has recorded a 41.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 28.3% fly ball percentage - both considerably higher than the MLB average. The Kansas City bullpen is a concern here but it's not as if the White Sox 'pen has been much better. In fact, Chicago has already posted seven blown saves compared to the Royals five. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Pelicans v. 76ers -9.5 | 107-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Pelicans in their last game as they rallied to defeat the Warriors and split a two-game set at home. New Orleans checks in 5-1 ATS over its last six games but let's face it, this team isn't really going anywhere sitting six games under .500 in 11th place in the Western Conference. With Brandon Ingram sidelined and Zion Williamson having aggravated an injury to his hand last time out, I could certainly see them folding the tent should they find themselves trailing by any considerable margin in the fourth quarter tonight. Philadelphia has been pouring it on lately, winning six straight games, scoring more than 120 points in four of those contests. The 76ers and healthy and firing on all cylinders, having shot better than 53% from the field in four of their last six games while holding the opposition to 45.2% or worse shooting in all six of those contests. I don't expect any sort of letdown from Philadelphia here after it lost by seven points on the road against New Orleans (as a five-point favorite) in the last matchup between these two teams less than a month ago. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Stars v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Friday. It's desperation time for the Stars even if their odds of overtaking the fourth-place Predators in the Central Division are slim with only three games left on their schedule. After an ugly 6-2 loss here in Tampa two nights ago I do expect them to put up more of a fight on Friday. Note that Dallas has allowed just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road off a loss by four goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons. The problem is they've managed to score just 2.0 goals per game themselves in that situation, with the 'under' cashing at a perfect 7-0 clip. Also note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Stars coming off consecutive games in which they gave up three goals or more this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. While the Lightning are known for their offense, outbursts like we saw from them two nights ago have been few and far between recently as they've scored three goals or less in 18 of their last 22 games overall. Of course, they've been stout defensively here at home all season, allowing just 2.2 goals per game. In three home matchups against the Stars they've given up a grand total of just two goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Nationals +170 v. Yankees | 11-4 | Win | 170 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Yankees are coming off an emotional series win over the Astros that ended on a sour note with a loss yesterday afternoon. I believe New York is overvalued here again on Friday, especially considering the Nationals are coming in off a home series sweep at the hands of the Braves. Most won't give the Nats' a chance here but I believe they have a good shot at stealing a victory in the Bronx. Note that Washington is a profitable 35-33 as a road underdog over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.5 runs. Pat Corbin will take the ball for the Nats' on Friday. He's certainly off to an uneven start this season but there is some reason for optimism as he worked seven innings and allowed just two earned runs last time out. We're starting to see his ground ball rate creep back up toward his stellar career 48.2% ground ball percentage. I do think we'll continue to see some positive regression to the mean for the veteran left-hander and here he'll face a Yankees team that is just 4-4 and averaging 4.5 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Jameson Taillon hasn't pitched particularly well for the Yanks, recording a 31.7% ground ball percentage and a 35.0% fly ball percentage - a recipe for disaster at Yankee Stadium. New York has won just twice in his five starts this season. Take Washington (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 211 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in a sleepy 104-86 affair in favor of the Clippers back on Easter Sunday but I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's rematch. The Lakers are coming off a low-scoring victory over the Nuggets on Monday night. It's worth noting that only once over their last 15 games have we seen the Lakers post consecutive 'under' results. With Anthony Davis back on the court there's reason to believe they can put up more of a fight against the Clippers than we saw from them in their last meeting back on April. The Clippers haven't looked overly motivated in the last couple of weeks, dropping three of their last four games SU and five in a row ATS. Note that the Clips average a whopping 124.3 points per game after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228 points. I certainly expect to see the Clippers get up for this matchup and I'm confident they can break out of their offensive funk, noting that they average 116.4 points per game on 49.1% shooting here at home this season. Defensively, the Clippers are an elite team but haven't been quite as locked in lately, allowing three of their last four opponents to shoot 47.3% or better from the field. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Clippers at home coming off a win over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.4 points. While the 'under' is 20-11 in Lakers road games this season (I realize calling this a 'road' game is a stretch) those contests have actually totaled an average of 212.9 points - just north of the number we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 103 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Carolina has cruised to consecutive wins over the Blackhawks with both games going 'over' the total. Here on Thursday, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts with a lower-scoring affair. Note that we've seen the Canes suffer a bit of a lull in similar situations, having averaged just 2.4 goals per game when coming off consecutive victories by two goals or more over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of just 5.2 goals on the last 16 occasions it has come up. Note that the Blackhawks are averaging just 2.4 goals per game on the road this season and have been fortunate to score five goals in the first two games of this three-game set, noting that the Canes have been incredibly stout defensively at home this season, allowing only 2.1 goals per contest. I'm not convinced we see a real high-energy game here from either team as both teams wind down the regular season - the Blackhawks looking forward to hitting the golf course and the Canes preparing for what they hope will be a deep playoff run. We've seen similar situations this season where two teams play one another three times or more in the same location and by the end of the stretch, the intensity tends to wane. I expect a similar story to unfold in a potentially low-event contest on Thursday in Raleigh. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Rangers v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers are coming off consecutive emotional losses against the Capitals and I really question how much they have left in the tank for this one, playing their third game in four nights and the second of back-to-backs. The Bruins will be looking to tighten things up after blowing a third period lead in an eventual 4-3 loss to the Devils last time out. Note that the B's have been stout defensively here at home this season, allowing just 2.5 goals per game. Already in a foul mood following the loss in New Jersey, Boston will also be seeking revenge after dropping its last matchup with the Rangers by a 4-0 score here on home ice back on March 13th. Note that the 'under' has cashed in eight of the last 12 meetings overall and four of the last five here at TD Garden. The Rangers were completely distracted by the Tom Wilson fiasco over the last two games, allowing a whopping 10 goals in consecutive losses to the Caps. Note that prior to those two contests, New York had held 11 of its last 13 opponents to three goals or less. Offensively, the Rangers will without question missing Artemi Panarin - keeping in mind, this is a team that has already been held to three goals or less in five straight games, averaging just 1.6 goals per game over that stretch. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Rangers coming off four or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 3.7 goals. We have seen the Rangers tighten things up off a home loss this season, allowing an average of just 2.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Devils v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Islanders are coming off consecutive stunning losses against the lowly Sabres in Buffalo but find themselves well-positioned to bounce back at home on Thursday night. While my first look would generally be to the 'under' with New York coming off consecutive losses, here I'll go the other way and call for a relatively high-scoring affair against the Devils. Note that New York is averaging a whopping 5.1 goals per game when playing at home after losing two of its last three games this season. That situation has come up seven times and has resulted in an average total of 6.8 goals. Keep in mind, the Isles rested their top gun Mat Barzal two nights ago in Buffalo but I would expect him to be back in the lineup tonight. He is of course the team's leading point scorer by a longshot this season. The Devils have been a much higher-scoring team on the road this season with the 'over' going 15-9-1 with those games averaging 6.4 total goals. Note that New Jersey is averaging 3.4 goals per game when heading on the road following two or more consecutive home games this season. The Devils have been scoring with some consistency of late, putting up three goals or more in eight of their last 11 games and four or more in four of their last five. They've had to play a more wide-open style with their young stud defenseman Ty Smith sidelined. He re-aggravated an injury on Monday and could be shut down for the remainder of the season. While a key offensive contributor as well, Smith has been steadying force in the defensive zone for the Devils this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 7 | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Thursday. Both of these lineups have gotten a little healthier this week with the D'Backs welcoming back regular clean-up hitter Christian Walker and the Marlins getting back Brian Anderson. It's been a lopsided series so far with the Marlins doing most of the damage offensively. I look for both teams to take part on Thursday, however, as this total should prove too low. Madison Bumgarner has turned back the clock over his last few starts, most notably tossing a seven-inning no-hitter against the Braves two starts back. I question whether he can keep it up though. Note that the Marlins have hit considerably better against left-handed starters this season (.252 as a team), averaging 4.9 runs per game. Meanwhile, the D'Backs will face right-hander Pablo Lopez, noting that they're averaging 5.2 runs per contest against righty starters this season. Concerning for the Snakes here is their awful bullpen, which entered last night's action having posted a 5.30 ERA on the season, with that number ballooning to 8.58 over their last seven games. The Marlins 'pen has been far better but a 4.14 home ERA (entering last night's game) is nothing to write home about. This has been a reasonably high-scoring series in recent years with the 'over' going 5-2-2 in nine previous meetings over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Blue Jays prevailed by a 9-4 score to earn their first victory in three tries in this series. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Thursday as Jays ace Hyun-Jin Ryu returns to the hill following a stint on the injured list to face A's veteran Mike Fiers. All indications are that Ryu is good to go after spending the minimum 10 days on the I.L. While the A's do check in sporting a 9-3 record against left-handed starters this season, Ryu will be the best they've faced and it's worth noting that they've actually hit just .218 against southpaw starters. Behind Ryu is a Jays bullpen that has been lights out this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Mike Fiers was a little shaky in his season debut for the A's but battled hard and managed to last six innings, allowing three earned runs on six hits while striking out three and walking two. I would expect Fiers to do a good job of eating some innings again here today, setting the table for an A's bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a 1.23 ERA over the last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Brewers -115 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Getaway Day Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies jumped ahead 5-0 in the first inning last night and held on for a 5-4 victory in a game they probably shouldn't have won. That was Philadelphia's third straight win to open this series but I like the Brewers to salvage the series finale on Thursday afternoon. Brandon Woodruff will be responsible for trying to turn the tide for the Brew Crew here and he should be up to the challenge against a Phillies club he's faced three times over the course of his career, giving up just one earned run on three hits over 18 innings of work. Of course, Woodruff has been terrific this season and checks in sporting an 18-4 team record in the first half of the season over the last two seasons, with the Brewers outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs. By contrast, Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has posted a 10-22 team record in the first half over the course of his career, with his teams outscored by an average margin of 1.5 runs. While the Brewers have a slight edge in terms of starters here, they also own a more considerable edge in the bullpen, even if it hasn't gone their way in this series to date. Entering last night's action, the Milwaukee bullpen had posted a 3.00 ERA over the last seven games. By contrast, the Phillies 'pen entered last night's contest having recorded a collective 5.09 ERA over its last seven games. While it did get the job done last night, it wasn't without major difficulty as the Brewers threatened virtually every inning. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Kings v. Coyotes -130 | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. With both of these teams simply playing out the string at this point I like the Coyotes to bounce back on home ice following a 3-2 loss to the Kings two nights ago. That marked the 'Yotes second straight loss but they haven't lost more than two in a row since dropping five straight games from April 7th to 14th. Of course, all five of those losses came on the road at the end of a long nine-game trek. Prior to that, you would have to go back to March 10th to 18th to find the last time Arizona lost more than two straight games - again, that five-game skid came on the road. The Coyotes are much better-positioned to bounce back here at home, having gone a perfect 6-0 when playing at home following consecutive losses this season, outscoring opponents by 1.7 goals per game in that situation. They're also 21-11 when playing at home revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Kings check in a miserable 1-10 when coming off a one-goal win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by a wide average margin of 2.1 goals in that situation. The fact that Los Angeles is 5-2 in its last seven games played here in Arizona is playing pretty heavy in the betting marketplace and I think it explains why this price is as short as it is. However, I do expect the Coyotes to put forth a strong performance in what is their home finale. Take Arizona (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Blue Jays v. A's -119 | 9-4 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Toronto at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have taken the first two matchups in this series and I like them to prevail in the third as well on Wednesday night. Robbie Ray will take the ball for Toronto. He's been reasonably solid in the early going this season, seemingly figuring out the control issues that plagued him last year. Catcher Alejandro Kirk has been credited with helping Ray find the strike zone, working all four of Ray's starts this season. However, now Kirk is on the 10-day I.L. Note that Ray has recorded a less than impressive 47.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. He has also seen his home run percentage creep up to 4.4% - 1.4% higher than the MLB average. Oakland will counter with Chris Bassitt on Wednesday, as he looks to string together a fifth straight team victory. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I'm high on Bassitt and we won with the 'under' in his most recent outing. Bassitt has recorded a 35.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season - both considerably better than the MLB average. He has also posted a 45.8% ground ball percentage which would match a career-best in that department. Working behind Bassitt is an A's bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a sub-1.80 ERA over the last seven games. Take Oakland (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the Jets on Monday night as they suffered a 2-1 loss in Ottawa - their seventh consecutive loss. We probably deserved a better fate as Winnipeg dominated possession and scoring chances in a game where they just as easily could have had four or five goals were it not for the exploits of Sens 22-year old goaltender Filip Gustavsson. We've certainly seen signs of the Jets offense breaking out as two games back they scored three goals in a loss in Montreal. Now we find Winnipeg averaging 4.1 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring one goal or less in its previous game over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've seen the 'over' go 9-2 with the Jets coming off a game where four goals or less were scored, with an average total of 7.1 goals in those contests. Meanwhile, the Flames check in off a 4-1 loss against the rival Oilers on Saturday. In spite of that, they have been playing better hockey lately, scoring three goals or more in three of their last five games, going 3-2 over that stretch. Here, we find the Flames in a situation where the 'over' has gone 11-2 over the last three seasons, when they revenge a home loss by three goals or more, with that situation producing an average total of 8.2 goals. We've seen the Jets bounce back from poor offensive performances this season, but it's often come at the expense of their own defensively play as they've allowed 3.8 goals per game after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest this season, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Finally, note that the 'over' checks in 4-3 in this matchup so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Avalanche v. Sharks +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Avs have now posted three straight wins over the Sharks with the last two coming by single-goal margins. The Sharks know they can skate with the Avs and have actually taken six of the last 10 meetings between these two teams here in San Jose. I'm anticipating another tightly-contested affair on Wednesday night as the Avs and Sharks wrap up a four-game set. Note that Colorado finds itself in what has been a difficult spot this season as it has gone 1-5 when playing on the road off a road win in which it scored at least four games this season. Somewhat inexplicably, the Avs have given up 5.0 goals per game and been outscored by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sharks check in having gone 10-5 after losing three of their last four games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. While the Sharks are simply playing out the string at this point, they should be eager to turn things around in the midst of a five-game homestand to wrap up the season. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Jets +109 v. Flames | 4-0 | Win | 109 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg over Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Jets on Monday as they fell by a 2-1 score in Ottawa in a game they dominated most of the way. There's more upside than first appears with Winnipeg here in my opinion as they scored three goals in a loss in Montreal two games back before generating plenty of good scoring opportunities against the Sens on Monday. A breakout is certainly coming and I want to be behind the Jets when it happens. This is a fine spot to project that happening with the Flames having gone 5-11 when coming off consecutive road games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. The Jets are 7-1 when coming off a one-goal loss this season, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. Also note that the Jets have gone 12-3 when coming off a road loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that spot. The Flames do check in having won three of their last five games overall but that's probably about as much as we could expect from them at this point. As bad as things have gone for the Jets lately, they're still going to be heading to the playoffs and can hang their hat on a solid 16-11 road record, where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals this season. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the first game of this two-game set in Utah on Monday as the Jazz cruised to a 110-99 victory. Now we're dealing with an even lower posted total and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 the last 33 times the Spurs have come off a road loss with those contests totaling an average of 231 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-1 with the Spurs coming off at least four straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 233.1 points. The Jazz check in averaging an impressive 120.6 points per game when playing at home off a double-digit home win, as is the case here, with that situation producing a total of 226.5 points on average this season. Finally, note that San Antonio averages 117 points per game when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 226.6 points. Utah will be without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley again here, but I'm still anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair, noting that five of the last nine meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total with three of the last four eclipsing the number we're dealing with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 104 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Wild have now seen the 'over' cash in six straight games but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night. Note that the 'under' is 3-2 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Minnesota and 7-4 in their last 11 matchups overall. This one sets up well as a potentially low-scoring game following Monday's wild (no pun intended) 6-5 result. The 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Knights have played on the road following a road game where both teams scored at least three goals, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.8 goals. We've certainly seen Vegas tighten things up after a poor defensive showing in recent years as it has given up just 2.0 goals per game with the 'under' going 13-5 with an average total of just 4.6 goals when playing on the road after allowing five goals or more in its previous game. It's a similar story for the Wild as they've given up just 1.5 goals per game after allowing three goals or more in four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | 3-6 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros couldn't contend with the Yankees (or their fans) last night, falling in blowout fashion in the series-opener. I do look for Houston to bounce back on Wednesday, however, as they send Luis Garcia to the hill against Jordan Montgomery. Garcia has been a bit of a mystery to opposing hitters during his young big league career, holding them to a collective .184 batting average in 32 1/3 innings of work. Here this season he's made five appearances, three of them starts, and has posted a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Garcia has recorded a 34.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats not to mention better than MLB average strikeout and walk percentages. Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery has been good but certainly not great during the early going this season. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up while he's also posted an inflated 4.6% home run percentage here in 2021. While the Yankees bullpen has been terrific, I'm confident the Astros can scratch together enough offense against Montgomery to keep this one close at the very least. Take Houston +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw last night's game between these two teams creep 'over' the total thanks to a seven-run outburst from the Yankees. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Astros send Luis Garcia to the hill against Jordan Montgomery. Garcia has perplexed opposing hitters in the early stages of his MLB career, posting a 2.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He's also recorded a .184 opponents batting average in 32 1/3 big league innings not to mention a better than average 36.0% hard-hit ball percentage. Working behind Garcia is an Astros bullpen that entered last night's action having recorded a collective 1.71 ERA over its last seven games. Jordan Montgomery is off to a bit of an up and down start for the Yankees this season. There are some positives to take away, most notably Montgomery's 46.7% ground ball percentage and .214 opponents batting average. For his career, Montgomery has recorded a 34.2% hard-hit ball percentage, 4.5% lower than the MLB average. The Yankees bullpen has been elite this season with a collective 2.30 ERA entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Brewers -130 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
National League Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Brewers as they look to get back at the Phillies after dropping the first two games in the series. Freddy Peralta will get the start for Milwaukee. He's been terrific, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through six appearances, five starts this season. It gets better as Peralta has recorded a stellar 27.5% hard-hit ball percentage - nearly 12% better than the MLB average. After holding opposing hitters to a collective .204 batting average last season he's been even better in early returns here in 2021, recording a .146 opponents batting average. Working behind Peralta is a Brewers bullpen that while not great overall this season, did enter last night's action having posted a collective 3.00 ERA over their last seven games. It's been a different story for the Phillies as their 'pen has posted a collective ERA north of five (entering last night's action). Chase Anderson will get the start for them on Wednesday. As I've noted before this season, he's pitching for his fourth different team since breaking in with the D'Backs in 2014. He hasn't fared particularly well this season as his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up while he's recorded a 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage, a 29.9% line drive percentage and a 28.4% fly ball percentage. Here, he'll face a Brewers lineup that is getting healthier with Lorenzo Cain returning to a starting role two nights ago before pinch-hitting in last night's contest. While Milwaukee has lost the first two games in this series it is still a solid 9-6 on the road this season. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams in yesterday's double-header at Coors Field, totaling 16 and 14 runs. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Logan Webb gets the nod for the Giants. He's been effective so far in his third big league season, recording a 32.9% hard-hit ball percentage and an 85.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate, having posted a 58.5% ground ball percentage. That's not to mention a solid 22.8% strikeout percentage, which would be a career-high. Jon Gray has been even better for the Rockies. A former top-six Rookie of the Year candidate in 2016, Gray has been in excellent form through six starts this season, posting a 3.15 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Gray has recorded a 30.3% hard-hit ball percentage and a 50.0% ground ball percentage. After posting a home run percentage 3.0% or higher in each of the last three seasons he's got that number down to 2.1% so far this season while holding opposing hitters to a collective .213 batting average. While neither bullpen is anything to write home about, I'm confident the starters can do enough to help keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds -123 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Chicago at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. The White Sox shook off a losing series against the Indians and delivered a 9-0 knockout of the Reds last night, taking full advantage of ineffective Cincinnati starter Jeff Hoffman. The Reds were certainly ripe for a letdown in that game after a thrilling 13-12 extra innings victory over the Cubs in their previous game. Here, I look for Cincinnati to bounce back in an early afternoon start on getaway day. Dallas Keuchel gets the start for Chicago on Wednesday. He turned back the clock and finished fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season but hasn't been able to regain that magic so far in 2021, posting a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP through his first six starts, spanning 31 innings of work. Keuchel's strikeouts are down and his walks are up and he's recorded a hard-hit ball percentage of 40.6% - nearly 3% higher than the MLB average. He's worked more than five innings just twice in his six starts which could spell trouble as the White Sox bullpen has posted a collective ERA north of five on the road this season. Sonny Gray is still rounding into form after missing time due to injury. Last time out he racked up a season-high 11 strikeouts so it certainly appears that he's getting there. Note that Gray has posted an uncharacteristically-high home run percentage of 4.7% (his career mark is less than half of that) but has also recorded a solid 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage. We can anticipate continued positive regression from Gray, who is just one season removed from finishing top-seven in N.L. Cy Young Award voting. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a lopsided result between these two teams last night as the White Sox cruised to a 9-0 victory. I expect both offenses to take part in today's contest, however, leading to a relatively high-scoring game. Dallas Keuchel will take the ball for Chicago. He turned back the clock and delivered a fine 2020 campaign, finishing fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He hasn't been able to regain that magic so far this season, despite a few strong outings, posting a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Keuchel's strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. He's still inducing ground balls at a solid rate but he has also recorded a hard-hit ball percentage north of 40%. Perhaps the biggest concern is the fact that he's yet to last beyond the sixth inning in any of his six starts, which should mean we'll see plenty of the White Sox bullpen, which owns an ERA north of five on the road this season. Sonny Gray missed time due to injury at the start of the season and has yet to really round into form, although he is coming off an 11-strikeout performance last time out. He has yet to last through six innings in any of his three starts this season and again that's a concern as the Reds bullpen owns a collective ERA north of six at home this season. We didn't see the slugfest most envisioned in the opener of this series last night as only one team showed up. Here, I look for both to contribute to what should be a high-scoring afternoon at the park. Take the over (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Oilers v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -141 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Oilers took the first game in this two-game set in Vancouver by a 5-3 score last night. The Canucks have now dropped five games in a row although four of those five losses came on the road. 12 of their 19 victories have come on home ice this season where they've been outscored by an average margin of just 0.2 goals. Note that Edmonton checks in 0-5 when coming off consecutive wins by two goals or more this season, as is the case here, outscored by 2.2 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Canucks have gone 16-9 when coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.9 goals in that spot. As well as the Oilers have been playing, they haven't strung together three consecutive victories since March 17th to 20th. With this the second game of four in a row against Edmonton, look for the Canucks to show some push back on Tuesday night. We'll grab the insurance goal as the price warrants such a play. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 9 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's series-opener between these two clubs crept 'over' the total by half a run but I look for a lower-scoring affair on Tuesday night in Oakland. The Blue Jays aren't hitting with much consistency on the road this season, entering this series batting a collective .213 while averaging 3.3 runs per game. The A's haven't been much better at home, entering the series hitting a collective .211 while averaging 4.2 runs per game here in Oakland. We have a matchup of two left-handed starters tonight with Anthony Kay taking the ball for the Jays against Cole Irvin. Kay got roughed up in his season debut but it wasn't all doom and gloom as he did record a 23.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 81.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate of 61.5%. I expect him to settle down and do a better job of keeping runs off the board here. Cole Irvin counters for Oakland. The former Phillie has had a tough time out of the gate as well, with his 49.4% hard-hit ball percentage most concerning. I do like the way he has battled, however, actually allowing only 11 earned runs in 27 innings of work. Also encouraging is the fact that he's issued just four walks in those 27 frames. I don't expect him to have all that long of a leash in this one and working behind him is a solid A's bullpen. Take the under (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals -134 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. PLEASE NOTE: Phil Maton will now make the start for Cleveland. The play stands as originally posted on Kansas City. With a 42.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats and a walk percentage north of 11%. The Indians took the first game of this series last night, their second straight victory, but I look for the Royals to answer back on Tuesday night. Sam Hentges will take the ball for the Indians. He was considered a top-20 prospect for the Indians last season but the jury is still out as to whether he's a viable option in the rotation. He was never able to prove himself in the minors, struggling mightily in Double-A ball two seasons ago prior to the Covid shutdown. Out of the bullpen this season he has labored through 5 2/3 innings of work, allowing eight hits, including three home runs. While we're talking about a small sample size, the big left-hander has recorded an ugly 52.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Despite his 57.9% ground ball percentage, he has posted a .320 opponents' batting average. Veteran Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. He's off to a very average start to the season but that's about par for the course for the left-hander. Minor has faced the Indians twice during his career with both of those starts coming in 2019. In those two starts he allowed just 10 hits and one earned run over 15 innings, including a start here in Kansas City where he outdueled Shane Bieber in a 4-2 victory. Minor has generally fared better in the first half of the season compared to the second half, with his teams outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 runs per game in his last 21 first half starts. Note that the Indians are just 5-7 and hitting a collective .184 against left-handed starting pitchers this season. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals OVER 9 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. PLEASE NOTE: Phil Maton will now get the start for the Indians. The original play on the 'over' stands. Maton owns an exit velocity off opposing bats north of 91 mph and a hard-hit ball percentage above 41% this season. He also owns a walk rate north of 11%. We saw a high-scoring game between these two clubs in last night's series-opener as the Indians prevailed by an 8-6 score. We've now seen at least 14 runs in four of the Royals last five games and at least 10 runs in all five of those contests. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. The Indians will give the start to Sam Hentges after Logan Allen was demoted following his last start. Hentges has yet to prove himself at the big league level after struggling in the minors in 2019. In limited work this season he has recorded an ugly 52.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Opponents are hitting .320 against him and he's already been tagged for three home runs in just 5 2/3 innings of work. Mike Minor has been serviceable for the Royals but isn't a strong candidate to manhandle many opposing lineups. Working behind him is a Kansas City bullpen that has struggled for much of the season, posting an ERA of nearly five. Take the over (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Warriors v. Pelicans -2.5 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Warriors took the first game of this two-game set in New Orleans last night but I like the Pelicans to bounce back here on Tuesday. Note that New Orleans has outscored the opposition by 3.2 points on average when coming off an upset loss as a favorite this season. The Pelicans also check in averaging 119.3 points per game when revenging a double-digit loss this season. The Warriors are just 10-22 ATS when playing the second of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 4.7 points in that spot. They're also just 3-11 ATS after posting consecutive wins this season, outscored by 7.3 points per game in that situation. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Twins | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a tight ball game between these two teams in last night's series-opener as the Twins prevailed by a 6-5 score. I expect another close game on Tuesday with the Rangers having a good shot at evening the series with Kyle Gibson on the hill. Gibson had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 2.16 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through six starts, spanning 33 1/3 innings of work. The former Twin hasn't been doing it with smoke and mirrors either. He's recorded a 32.3% hard-hit ball percentage and a 53.1% ground ball percentage. While we're bound to see some regression over time, I do think he's well-positioned to turn in another fine outing on Tuesday. J.A. Happ will counter for Minnesota. He had a miserable spring but has posted a 1.96 ERA and 0.83 WHIP through four regular season outings. I do think there's some reason for concern, however. Note that Happ has recorded a 40.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both worse than the MLB average. His 40.3% fly ball percentage doesn't really line up with his 2.3% home run percentage, noting that he's been worse than the MLB average over the course of his career in terms of home run rate. With all of that said, he's held opposing hitters to a collective .150 batting average - I'm expecting some considerable regression in that department moving forward. While the Rangers are 13-16 overall, they've gone 9-4 against left-handed starters, outscoring the opposition by 1.0 run per game on average. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets are coming off consecutive losses, including a three-point setback in a poor all around performance here in Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon. I look for Brooklyn to answer back positively here on Tuesday as it finds itself in what I would consider a smash spot offensively after being held to 42.1% and 42.7% shooting in its last two games. Keep in mind, the Nets had shot 48.2% or better in seven of its previous 11 contests, even with what seems like a merry-go-round rotation on any given night. The Nets are averaging north of 119 points per game on an impressive 49.3% shooting on the road this season. Of course, the Bucks have been every bit as good offensively here at home this season and enter this game off consecutive victories. They haven't won three games in a row since April 11th to 15th, however, going just 5-4 SU and ATS since. They're certainly not invincible here at home, having lost five games outright here in Milwaukee since March 26th. Note that the Nets are 34-16 ATS when on the road revenging a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 points on average in that situation. Milwaukee checks in a miserable 7-17 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season, as is the case here. The Bucks are also just 29-49 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less the last 78 times that situation has come up. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 220 | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Jazz are coming off a low-scoring come-from-behind victory over the Raptors on Saturday as they continue to sputter without Donovan Mitchell and now Mike Conley as well. With that being said, I see this as a smash spot for Utah at home against a Spurs squad playing its second of back-to-back games after an overtime loss at home against the 76ers last night. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 after San Antonio posts three ATS wins in its last four games this season, with that situation producing an average total of 233.8 points. The 'over' is also 22-9 with the Spurs playing on the road off a loss over the last two seasons, with that spot resulting in an average total of 231.2 points. Meanwhile, Utah averages an impressive 121.9 points per contest when playing at home off a home win this season. Even when factoring in Mitchell and Conley's absences we can still project the Jazz to have a big night offensively against a Spurs squad that has allowed two of its last four opponents to shoot 50.6% or better from the field. It is worth noting that San Antonio has actually been a better offensive team on the road compared to at home, averaging 113.5 points per game on 46.7% shooting in the visitors role. The first meeting between these two teams this season produced 239 total points and the 'over' has cashed in five of the last eight meetings overall. Take the over (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the A's 7-5 win over the Orioles yesterday but I'll go the other way and back the 'under' as they welcome the streaking Blue Jays to Oakland on Monday. Steven Matz will take the ball for Toronto, which checks in off a series sweep of the Braves in Dunedin. Matz is coming off a rough outing against the Nationals last week but his overall numbers this season remain strong. Matz has recorded a 36.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 49.3% ground ball percentage, both considerably better than the MLB average. His fly ball percentage does sit north of 30% which is a concern, but perhaps not quite as much of one pitching here at pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. Matz has improved on both his opponents batting average and his home run percentage this season and I like him in this bounce-back spot on Monday. Frankie Montas has had a couple of brutal outings against the Dodgers and Twins but has been sharp in his other three trips to the hill, working six innings and allowing three earned runs or less in each of those starts. Montas had major command issues in the early stages of his career but had sorted those problems out prior to a down 2020 campaign that saw him issue 3.9 walks per nine innings. He's bounced back strong in that department this season, dropping that walk rate to 2.6 per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .286 off of him and he's recorded a 5.3% home run percentage but I expect some positive regression to the mean in those departments moving forward, noting again two ugly starts have spoiled his overall numbers. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -1 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Portland at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Hawks are well-positioned to go on a late season run after a brief lull on the road last week. Trae Young returned to the lineup two games back and proceeded to pour in 30+ points in both contests. Now Atlanta draws a tough matchup with the surging Blazers on Monday with Portland coming off its fourth straight road win to open its current trip last night in Boston. I believe the Hawks will be up to the challenge in this revenge spot after suffering a 112-106 loss in Portland back in mid-January. Note that the last time these two teams met here in Atlanta, the Hawks prevailed by a 129-117 score last February. The Hawks shook off a three-game losing streak to deliver a 108-97 win over the Bulls on Saturday. They've scored just 104 and 108 points since Trae Young returned to the lineup but an offensive outburst is coming, and could very well come against a road-weary Blazers squad on Monday. Note that Portland allows 114.9 points per game on 47.6% shooting on the road this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in 13-5 ATS as a home favorite this season, allowing just 104.3 points per game in that situation. The Hawks have put together a terrific stretch of defensive basketball here at home lately, allowing 96, 103, 104 and 97 points in their last four home games - all victories. Note that Atlanta is 26-14 ATS the last 40 times it has played at home revenging a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 points, which is more encouraging when you consider that trend goes back two seasons, when the Hawks were a far weaker team than they are this year. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks UNDER 236.5 | 114-123 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Atlanta at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Blazers are off to a perfect 4-0 start to their current road trip, scoring 133, 130, 128 and 129 points in the process. I like the Hawks chances of at least slowing them down here in Atlanta on Monday, noting that Atlanta has allowed 96, 103, 104 and 97 points over its last four home games and has allowed just three opponents to shoot 49% or better going all the way back to April 1st. It's certainly worth noting that the 'under' has cashed at a 13-5 clip with the Hawks listed as home favorite this season, with those games totaling an average of just 217.2 points. While the Blazers have been rolling offensively, it's important to give some credit to their defensive play as well. They've held four of their last five opponents to 46.5% or worse shooting from the field. I'm not entirely sure they'll be looking for a track meet here against a rested Hawks squad, noting that Portland will be playing its fifth game in the last seven nights, in five different cities. At the same time, Atlanta will want to take Portland out of its own element and perhaps turn things one into more of a physical affair. The 'under' is 17-13 in Hawks home games this season and I'll call for that trend to continue here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Ducks v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Blues have played 14 consecutive games against teams in the West Division playoff race so a letdown could certainly be in order here on Monday as they return home from Minnesota to host the lowly Ducks. With that being said, I'm not about to back Anaheim in this one. Instead, I'll go with the 'under' as I'm anticipating a relatively low-event contest on Monday night in St. Louis. The Ducks check in off a rare six-goal outburst in a win over the Kings on Saturday. Note that prior to that game, Anaheim had scored a grand total of nine goals over its last seven games. The 'under' has gone 24-9 with the Ducks coming off a win by two goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. Also note that the Ducks average a miserable 1.6 goals per game after winning two of their last three games this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Blues check in sporting a 3-12 o/u mark when playing at home after consecutive games where seven or more total goals were scored over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.7 goals. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings between these two teams here in St. Louis. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Jets -142 v. Senators | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -142 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Jets are reeling after six consecutive losses but have had a couple of days off to regroup before facing the Senators in Ottawa on Monday night. We won with the Jets in their last matchup with the Sens on April 14th and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that Winnipeg has taken four of the last six meetings here in Ottawa. The Senators have been playing some of their best hockey of the season, winners of six of their last nine games overall. Note that the Sens are averaging just 2.6 goals per game when revenging a same season loss against an opponent here in 2021, outscored by 1.0 goal per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are 8-1 coming off a road loss this season, outscoring opponents by 2.0 goals per game in that spot. They're 11-3, averaging 3.9 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 goals when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons. The Jets are dealing with the absence of Nik Ehlers as he's sidelined for the season with a shoulder injury but it's not as if he's the heart and soul of the team. This is an experienced, well-coached team and I'm confident we'll see them bounce back with a much-needed victory on Monday night. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 2-5 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Blackhawks 5-4 loss to the Panthers on Saturday - a game that saw seven goals scored in the final 25 minutes. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the Blackhawks travel to Carolina to face the Hurricanes. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with Chicago coming off six or seven losses in its last eight games this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 3.9 goals. It's also interesting to note that the Blackhawks have allowed just 2.1 goals per game the last eight times they've come off three straight contests where seven or more total goals were scored, with those games averaging just 5.4 total goals. The Canes have posted an 8-15-2 o/u record on home ice this season, where they've allowed just 2.0 goals per game. Carolina has won three straight meetings with Chicago here in Raleigh, with the 'under' cashing in two of those three games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-02-21 | Raptors v. Lakers -7 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Toronto at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. Bettors were quick to get behind the Lakers on Friday night as Lebron James made a surprising return and Los Angeles closed as an 11.5-point favorite. Things didn't go well, however, as the Lakers ultimately fell by four points against the Kings. I expect a better performance from the Lakers here as they look to regain their footing and snap their two-game skid before a tougher matchup against the Nuggets tomorrow night. It actually wasn't that bad of a game from Los Angeles on Friday as it shot 50% from the field and held Sacramento to 45.3% shooting. It was a tough scheduling spot in the first place, given the Lakers were returning home on just one day rest and across three time zones following a four-game road trip. The Raptors have opened their current trip with consecutive losses in Denver and Utah. Toronto is simply playing out the string at this point and doesn't look all that interested in winning games, resting Kyle Lowry last night. I have no doubt the Raps will get up for this game on Sunday - I'm just not convinced they can match the Lakers hunger in this spot. Note that Toronto has allowed three straight opponents to shoot better than 47% from the field and things don't figure to get any easier here, playing on no rest after consecutive games in altitude. There's been plenty of talk after Lebron James indicated following Friday's game that he may never again be 100% healthy. That's just talk. If he's in the lineup on Sunday, he'll play well. If he's not, I still like the Lakers at a reasonable price against a road-weary Raptors squad playing their sixth game in the last nine nights, in five different cities (by contrast the Lakers are playing just their fifth game over that stretch, in four different cities). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-02-21 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring contests to open this series but I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. Dylan Bundy has gotten off to a terrific start for the Angels this season, picking up right where he left off last year when he finished ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. Bundy has recorded an incredible 30.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. After holding opposing hitters to a collective .208 batting average last season he has posted a .221 opponents' batting average this year. Justus Sheffield will counter for Seattle. His numbers aren't nearly as positive as Bundy's but I'm willing to take a flyer on him in a key bounce-back spot here. Note that Sheffield continues to induce ground balls at a solid rate, with a career ground ball percentage of 50.3% - over 7% higher than the MLB average. He has improved on his walk rate in each of the last two seasons, bringing it down to 3.3 walks per nine innings so far this season (the MLB average is 3.8). The Angels are coming off a big night at the dish last night but have generally been quiet, scoring four runs or less in nine of their last 11 games overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-02-21 | Orioles v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Orioles bats finally woke up and disposed of the A's 8-4 in yesterday's contest, their second straight victory to open the series. I expect to see plenty of offense on Sunday as well as the A's look to punch back against Bruce Zimmermann. We're starting to get a better picture of what to expect from Zimmermann at the big league level after he pitched just seven innings in 2020. Here in 2021 he has worked 25 1/3 innings with opposing hitters batting a collective .320 against him. He has recorded a 44.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB averages. Zimmermann isn't missing many bats with a 16.2% strikeout percentage not to mention a 30.6% line drive percentage. While the A's have been slumping offensively I do think they can break out against the O's left-hander today. Sean Manaea will get the nod for Oakland. He got off to a rocky start this season but has settled down over his last couple of starts. While he has recorded a stellar 35.4% hard-hit ball percentage so far this season, he has feasted on slumping lineups including Detroit, Minnesota and Tampa Bay in his last three starts. The O's certainly showed signs of busting out with an eight-run performance yesterday (every player in their lineup recorded a hit). Noting that Manaea owns a career hard-hit ball percentage nearly 5% higher than the MLB average, including a 45.2% mark last season, I believe some regression is in order in coming starts. The 'under' is 3-2 in this matchup so far this season but the 'over' has still cashed in seven of the last 11 meetings in the series. The 'over' is also 9-7 in all A's home games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-02-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 7 | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Washington at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be a pitcher's duel but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'over' as I feel the total will prove too low. Trevor Rogers had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. However, a closer look does provide some reason for concern. Note that Rogers has recorded a 45.8% hard-hit ball percentage and an inflated 30.5% fly ball percentage - more than 8% higher than the MLB average. He's still managed to keep the ball in the park for the most part, posting a 0.8% home run percentage but some regression to the mean should be in order after he recorded a 3.9% home run percentage last season. Max Scherzer is once again mowing them down with a 32.8% strikeout percentage but like Rogers, he has also struggled to keep the ball on the ground, recording a 22.5% ground ball percentage and 39.4% fly ball percentage through his first 30 innings of work this season. With Rogers having posted a .188 opponents batting average and Scherzer checking in at .204 I believe some regression is in order. On a fine day at the ballpark on Sunday afternoon, I'm anticipating some runs. Take the over (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 14-6 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The D'Backs have scored 12 runs in the first two games in this series with last night's game creeping 'over' the total by a single run. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Rockies send Austin Gomber to the hill against Zac Gallen. Gomber was a big piece coming back to the Rockies in the Nolan Arenado trade and while his overall numbers with his new club aren't great (an ERA north of six and a 1.57 WHIP) there's reason to believe he can get on track. Command has been an issue as Gomber has recorded an inflated 18.5% walk percentage but he's held opposing hitters to a collective .207 batting average (after posing a .190 opponents batting average in limited work with the Cardinals last season) and has done a solid job of keeping hitters off balance, recording a 36.1% hard-hit ball percentage. His fly ball percentage is higher than we would like at 32.8% but again, there's reason to believe he can get that in order noting that his career fly ball percentage sits at 22.9%, slightly better than the MLB average. Here, he'll face a D'Backs lineup that has been held to five runs or less in five of its last seven games. Zac Gallen is a star in the making for the D'Backs. He's off to a tremendous start here in 2021, posting a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting a collective .138 against him and while he's posted a slightly above-average fly ball percentage, he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the park with a 1.5% home run percentage. The Rockies have scored three runs or less in four of the first five games on their current road trip. Take the under (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Blues v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We've seen consecutive high-scoring games between these two teams with the Blues prevailing in both. That actually sets us up for a low-scoring affair on Saturday, however, noting that the 'under' has gone 15-4 with the Wild coming off consecutive games totaling seven goals or more over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 12-2 in the same situation with the Blues over the last two seasons with an average total of 4.5 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 16-5 the last 21 times the Blues have played on the road off two or more consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 5.0 goals. The Wild will of course be out for revenge here after dropping four straight meetings in this series. The 'under' is 21-7 the last 28 times the Wild have been in a quadruple-revenge situation with those games totaling an average of only 4.4 goals. There's reason to believe the Wild can tighten things up here, noting that they allow just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. Prior to scoring at least four goals in each of their last four games the Blues had been held to three goals or less in 12 of their last 13 contests. Finally, keep in mind the 'under' has still cashed in four of the last seven meetings here in Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Panthers v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring contest between these two teams two nights ago in Chicago as the Panthers rallied to secure a 4-3 overtime victory. Of course, that game would have stayed 'under' the total were it not for Florida tying things up at three goals apiece with 18 seconds remaining in the third period. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 the last eight times the Panthers have come off consecutive games where both teams scored three goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 5.1 goals. With the loss on Thursday, the Blackhawks now check in having posted an 8-1 'under' record after dropping five or six of their last seven games this season, with that spot producing just 4.4 total goals on average. We've seen the Blackhawks tighten things up defensively in similar situations this season, allowing just 2.0 goals per game when playing at home off a one-goal loss. While the Panthers are certainly known for their offense, they actually average only 1.2 goals per game after winning six or seven of their last eight contests this season, as is the case here. On the flip side, they're allowing just 2.4 goals per game after giving up three or more goals in three consecutive games this season. Prior to Thursday's result, the last two meetings between these two teams here in Chicago had totaled five goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Dodgers -124 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers bats have gone silent in the first two games of this series and they draw an even tougher matchup against Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff on Saturday night. With that being said, I like them to bounce back and avoid a third straight loss at the hands of the Brew Crew behind another strong performance from Dustin May. May had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 2.53 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through 21 1/3 innings of work. May is rounding into a terrific ground ball pitcher, after recording a 53.4% ground ball percentage last season he's improved that number to 56.3% so far this year. He's held opposing hitters to a collective .188 batting average while recording an incredible 37.2% strikeout percentage. While the Brewers have won the first two games in this series, like the Dodgers, they're also struggling at the plate right now, still missing two of their best hitters in Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. Brandon Woodruff has actually faced the Cubs in three of his first five starts this season and he's absolutely owned them. There is reason to believe that the Dodgers can scratch together some offense against him here, however. Los Angeles actually faced Woodruff once last October and chased him before the end of the sixth inning, scoring three runs on five hits. Woodruff has posted a 40.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season, with both numbers checking in just north of the MLB average. His walks have crept up compared to last year with a 7.4% walk percentage but the fact that he has yet to give up a single home run has certainly helped his cause. Note that he posted a 3.1% home run percentage last season, falling right around the MLB average. Interestingly, the Dodgers have gone 29-11 the last 40 times they've faced a starting pitcher that has gone undefeated through five or more starts, as is the case with Woodruff, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 runs. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Pistons v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 94-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm not sure the average bettor realizes how dire the Pistons injury situation is right now. Mason Plumlee, Jerami Grant and Cory Joseph have all been ruled out for Saturday's game (among many others) while Hamidou Diallo, who has given them good minutes and production off the bench, is now listed as doubtful as well. Detroit hung around for a while against an undermanned Mavs squad on Thursday (Luka Doncic missed that game) but still fell by double-digits, despite shooting better than 50% from the field. Here, the Pistons will run into a Hornets squad that should certainly be in a foul mood following consecutive losses, as they continue to fight for a playoff spot in the East. Charlotte is of course dealing with injury issues of its own but it does appear Malik Monk and LaMelo Ball are at least close to returning, which should give the Hornets a bit of an emotional boost as they continue to push forward. Note that Charlotte checks in 16-7 ATS after losing two of its last three games this season and owns a 31-17 ATS mark following consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons. There are plenty of trends supporting the Pistons here, and that certainly factors into the relatively short pointspread. But the fact is, Detroit has now dropped three of its last four games ATS with its lone victory over that stretch coming against a banged-up Hawks squad that was in letdown mode following a home upset win over the Bucks two nights earlier. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Indians and White Sox square off in the second game of their weekend series on Saturday afternoon in Chicago. Triston McKenzie will get the start for the Indians. While he has held opposing hitters to a collective .220 batting average in 16 2/3 innings of work this season, he hasn't pitched well by any stretch. Note that he has recorded a 54.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 94.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. McKenzie has posted a ridiculously low 10.8% ground ball percentage and 40.5% line drive percentage so it should only be a matter of time before that opponents' batting average starts creeping up. The White Sox will welcome the opportunity to face someone other than Tribe ace Shane Bieber here, noting that they've scored at least eight runs in four of their last eight games overall. Lance Lynn will get the start for Chicago. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I am high on Lynn. With that being said, there is some reason for concern here. Note that Lynn has recorded a 41.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both north of the MLB average - while also posting a 29.2% fly ball percentage - nearly six percent higher than the MLB average. Lynn's strikeouts are way up and his walks are way down but we're talking about a very small sample size through just three starts (I realize that goes for all stats mentioned here). We have seen the Indians offense come to life a little bit lately, scoring five runs or more in four of their last five games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Sabres v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams two nights ago as the Bruins cruised to a 5-2 victory. Note that the 'under' has still cashed in five of the last seven meetings here at TD Garden and I look for that trend to continue on Saturday afternoon. After a brief surge, the Sabres offense has gone back in the tank, scoring a grand total of six goals during its current three-game slide. The Sabres average just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season and don't figure to break through against a Bruins squad that allows just 1.9 goals per game when playing at home off a home victory this season. The 'under' has gone 8-2 in that situation with an average total of just 4.5 goals scored. Also note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Sabres coming off three straight losses by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing just 4.9 total goals on average. It's interesting to note that the Bruins average just 1.8 goals per game when playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season - a situation that has come up 10 times previously and produced an average total of only 4.6 goals. The Bruins enter this contest having allowed two goals or less in five of their last six games and three goals or less in nine of their last 10 contests. Take the under (9*). |
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04-30-21 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams have trended to the 'over' this season but I'll go the other way and back the 'under' as they square off in the desert on Friday night. Vegas has scored exactly five goals in three straight games and has put up four or more goals in seven of its last eight contests overall. I certainly don't feel that level of offensive success is sustainable. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 with the Knights coming off three consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 3.4 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 30-17 with the Coyotes coming off consecutive 'over' results, with that spot averaging 5.3 total goals. Better still, the 'under' is 14-4 with the Coyotes coming off consecutive games in which they allowed four goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here. That situation has led to an average total of just 4.6 goals with Arizona allowing only 2.2 goals per game. Note that the Coyotes are allowing just 1.8 goals per game when playing at home off two or more straight losses this season. The Knights have of course been incredibly stout defensively on the road this season, where they allow just 2.1 goals per contest. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in three of the last five meetings in this series here in Arizona. Take the under (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Orioles v. A's UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. Neither of these teams are scoring runs with much consistency right now and I don't expect that to change on Friday night in Oakland. Baltimore will hand the ball to former All-Star and A.L. Rookie of the Year runner-up (in 2019) John Means. He's shaken off a rough spring by getting off to a terrific start during the regular season, posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through five starts, covering a span of 30 innings. While Means 27.6% fly ball percentage is somewhat concerning it shouldn't really cost him here in the friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum. After holding opposing hitters to a .220 batting average last season, Means has been even better here in 2021, posting a .171 opponents BA. Here, he faces an A's lineup that has once again gone cold, plating three runs or less in five straight games and traveling back across the country after wrapping up a series in St. Petersburg yesterday afternoon. Mike Fiers returns to the A's rotation on Friday, despite initial reports that he would pitch out of the bullpen. While it's difficult to predict exactly what we'll get from Fiers here, he's a veteran competitor who's coming off a somewhat disappointing 2020 campaign and I think he wants the ball and wants to show the A's he's still well-deserving of his place in the rotation. It's not as if Fiers was awful last season. His ERA approached five but he still recorded a terrific 33.7% hard-hit ball percentage. He's never been a ground ball pitcher, but again that serves him just fine making the majority of his starts in Oakland. Fiers will face an Orioles club that has scored four runs or less in four straight and seven of its last eight games overall. Take the under (9*). |
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04-30-21 | Sharks v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | 0-3 | Win | 101 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Sharks have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last four games - their longest such streak of the season. The last time they posted four consecutive 'over' results, their next game stayed 'under' the total in a 4-0 loss at the hands of the Avalanche right here in Colorado. The Sharks check in having scored 13 goals over the course of a three-game homestand. The road hasn't been nearly as kind as they average just 2.7 goals per game away from home this season. Prior to their last three games they had been held to two goals or less in seven straight contests. The Avalanche should be in a foul mood after dropping three straight games at the tail-end of their most recent road trip that included four straight games in in St. Louis. After giving up a whopping 14 goals over their last three games I would certainly look for them to tighten the screws a little bit here. Mikko Rantanen could return from the Covid list on Friday which would obviously give the Avs a boost, but it remains to be seen how much he can contribute in his first game back after an extended layoff. Note that the 'under' has gone 6-1 with the Sharks playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games this season with those contests totaling just 4.3 goals on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies -10.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Grizzlies returned home from a long, successful road trip that ended with a thud (a blowout loss in Denver) and couldn't regain their footing in a blowout loss at the hands of the Blazers, who were in a quick revenge spot, two nights ago. Here, I expect Memphis to fare much better as it draws a favorable matchup against the lowly Magic. Orlando is actually coming off a rare win but that came against the Cavs. The Magic have now won consecutive games ATS but I think that's about as much as we can expect from this team that's simply playing out the string at this point. Orlando certainly isn't looking to force the issue down the stretch, taking a cautious approach with both Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross, who are nursing minor injuries but likely to sit again on Friday. The Grizzlies were actually favored against the Blazers two nights ago but probably shouldn't have been (hindsight is 20/20 of course) as they were playing on just one day of rest following an extremely difficult seven-game road trip. We should see the Grizz come out with much fresher legs tonight and that should result in a far better shooting performance after they were held to 42% shooting against Portland. The Magic held the Cavs to 40.2% shooting last time out but check in allowing 118.8 points per game when playing in a game with a posted total 220 points or higher, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have shown the ability to tighten things up following a bad loss, allowing just 107.9 points per game after a double-digit home loss over the last two seasons. They should be able to get loose in this one against a Magic squad that prior to their last game had allowed five of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three consecutive opponents shoot 54% or better. The Magic took the most recent meeting in this series but that was last March. We haven't got a real picture of just how wide the gap has grown between these two squads here in 2021 but we should see it in the front half of this home-and-home series on Friday night. Take Memphis (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Division Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the insurance run with what I consider to be the superior team in this matchup (for now at least) as the Twins continue to deal with some key absences early in the season and struggle to find their footing. Brady Singer will take the ball for Kansas City. He's made some nice progress over his rookie campaign, which was impressive in its own right. Singer has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance this season, recording a 33.9% hard-hit ball percentage while also posting a ground ball percentage a shade over 55% after recording a 53.7% in that department last season. His walks are down while his strikeouts are up compared to last year and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .210 batting average. Michael Pineda is off to an up and down start to the campaign and draws a tough Royals lineup here. Pineda has once again had a tough time keeping the ball down, leading to a 32.3% fly ball percentage and a 4.6% home run percentage in the early going this season. He has held opposing hitters to a .193 batting average but we can certainly anticipate some regression to the mean in that department as he owns a career .248 opponents BA, not posting a number lower than that since way back in 2014. With a 43.5% hard-hit ball percentage and an exit velocity off opposing bats nearly 90 mph, look for the Royals to enjoy a solid night at the plate and keep this one within arm's reach at the very least. Take Kansas City +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies UNDER 225 | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. |
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04-30-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8 | 6-1 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams in the opener of this series last night - the fourth consecutive 'under' result for the Red Sox and the third in a row for the Rangers. I expect a reversal of sorts here as Boston sends Nate Eovaldi to the hill against Koehi Arihara. Eovaldi started his career by doing a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the park and so far this season he hasn't allowed a single home run. I don't think that trend is sustainable, however, noting that he has recorded a home run percentage of over 4.0% in three of his last four seasons (he missed 2017 due to injury). With that being said, Eovaldi has been solid pretty much across the board this season but he still owns a career .268 opponents batting average and the Rangers bats have been waking up a little bit lately, plating 23 runs in their last five games. I'm willing to take a flyer in the Texas bats against the veteran right-hander here. Kohei Arihara is not off to a great MLB start, having recorded an ugly 53.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats with opponents hitting a collective .268 against him this season. The Red Sox are slumping a bit at the dish right now but this looks like a high-potential for a breakout spot after getting stymied by Kyle Gibson and his ground ball-inducing exploits last night (as I pointed out in my analysis supporting my play on the Rangers +1.5 runs in that game). Arihara has yet to make it through six innings in a start this season so look for the Red Sox to take a confident approach to the plate tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9 | 6-8 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. With the Cubs coming off a high-scoring series in Atlanta perhaps it's no surprise that we're dealing with a relatively high posted total in the opener of this series in Cincinnati. Jake Arrieta will get the nod for the Cubs on Friday. He catches the Reds returning home following a six-game trip that took them to St. Louis and Los Angeles. Cincinnati didn't exactly tear the cover off the ball on that trip, plating a grand total of 17 runs. Arrieta's strikeout rate is up and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .214 batting average through 28 innings of work this season. His fly ball percentage leaves a lot to be desired but I'm confident he can get that on track, noting that he's been a solid ground ball pitcher over the course of his career with a 48.5% ground ball percentage, 4.5% higher than the MLB average. Even though he struggled last season, he still managed to post a terrific 51.8% ground ball percentage. Wade Miley continues to impress for the Reds. He's done a tremendous job of keeping opposing hitters off balance this season, recording a 26.2% hard-hit ball percentage and an 81.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. It doesn't get much better than that in those two departments. Not surprisingly, he has also recorded a 55.4% ground ball percentage while holding opposing hitters to a collective .173 batting average. The Cubs bats were hot last night in Atlanta but I'm confident Miley can keep them at bay here (after struggling mightily in his lone start against them - at Wrigley Field mind you - last year). Take the under (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Yankees extra inning loss to the Orioles but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as they return home to host the Tigers on Friday. With the 'under' having cashed in four straight and nine of the Yankees last 11 games overall it's only a matter of time before we see their totals start going the other way and shaded a little too low. I believe that's precisely the situation on Friday. Tarik Skubal will get the start for the Tigers. He had a fine spring but hasn't been able to carry it over into the regular season, posting an ERA north of five and a 1.58 WHIP. Skubal could be in trouble against the homer-happy Yankees here, noting that he has recorded a poor 20.7% ground ball percentage and 41.4% fly ball percentage in 19 innings pitched this season. He now owns a career 6.3% home run percentage - nearly twice the MLB average (albeit with a small sample size of 51 career innings pitched). Gerrit Cole is not surprisingly off to a terrific start for the Yankees. He should have his way with the Tigers but it's worth noting that Cole has recorded a 46.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 92.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while also posting a 32.3% fly ball percentage - all considerably higher than the MLB average. He has a 0.8% home run percentage so far this season but we should see some regression to the mean in that department moving forward. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in Cole's seven career starts against the Pirates but each of his last three outings against them have totaled at least nine runs. Take the over (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans -9 v. Thunder | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans may appear to be in a tough situation on paper as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a two-point loss in Denver last night. However, they're actually in the same three-in-four situation as the Thunder and catch Oklahoma City in a letdown spot off an upset win in Boston two nights ago - the team's first victory since back on March 31st against the Raptors. In order to secure that win, the Thunder needed to shoot better than 48% from the field - their best shooting performance since April 10th against the 76ers (a game they lost by 24 points). Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is averaging just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting here at home this season. Playing at a much quicker pace lately they can certainly turn this into a track meet but that should only serve to stretch out the margin. The Pelicans are bringing the proper level of intensity to the floor every night, having shot 47.1% or better from the field in five straight games, shooting north of 53% in three of those contests. Last night's game ended a streak of three straight contests holding their opposition to 43.6% shooting or worse. Note that the Pelicans check in ranked eighth in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage over their last three games. They rank tops in the league in floor percentage this season. Oklahoma City hasn't fared well as a home underdog this season, going 9-20 ATS, outscored by 12 points on average. They're also 3-11 ATS the last 14 times they've come off a non-conference game, outscored by an average margin of 15.9 points, and that's exacerbated further by the fact that they're in for an obvious letdown off the win over what seemed to be a disinterested Celtics team. This wouldn't appear to be an easy game for the Pelicans to get up for until you realize that Oklahoma City took the last meeting in this series by a single point as an eight-point underdog in New Orleans back on January 6th. The Pelicans may have overlooked the Thunder in that one after they took the first meeting here on this floor by 33 points on December 31st. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder OVER 230.5 | 109-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. |
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04-29-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Two clubs heading in opposite directions will meet on Thursday night in Texas as the Red Sox travel from New York to face the Rangers, who just wrapped up a series with the division-rival Angels. Boston enters riding a three-game winning streak thanks to some outstanding pitching. Here, I'm not sure they'll get such a positive performance from former Ranger Martin Perez. Opponents are hitting .290 against Perez this season, bumping his career opponents batting average all the way up to .283 - 31 points higher than the MLB average. His walk rate is up again after a miserable 2020 campaign in that department, while his strikeout rate remains well below the MLB average. He has always done a fairly good job of keeping opposing hitters off balance and limiting his hard-hit ball percentage but his ability to induce ground balls has dropped off considerably in recent years. So far this season he has recorded a 38.2% ground ball percentage - nearly 6% lower than the MLB average. Kyle Gibson will counter for Texas. He's enjoying a resurgence of sorts, building off an encouraging spring to post a 2.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through his first five regular season outings. Gibson has always been a good ground ball pitcher and he's on track for another solid year in that department having recorded a 53.2% ground ball percentage through 27 1/3 innings of work. Gibson's fly ball percentage is all the way down south of 14% so it's no surprise that he's yet to allow a home run this season. Also note that Gibson's strikeouts are up and his walks are down compared to last season and he's held opponents to a .235 collective batting average. While he won't be able to keep it up forever, I do like his chances of keeping the Rangers in the game in a bounce-back spot here tonight. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Dodgers -152 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -152 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers aren't hitting right now and that has a lot to do with the players that currently aren't in their lineup including Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. They're in tough on Thursday night as they prepare to face Trevor Bauer and send out spot starter Eric Lauer. Lauer should get hit hard in this one as he makes his first appearance of the 2021 season. The former Padres castoff got in very limited work with the Brewers last season and didn't fare well, posting an ERA north of 13 and a 2.36 WHIP in just 11 innings of work. He's been hit hard over the course of his three-year big league career, to the tune of a 41.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both worse than the MLB average. He's not a ground ball pitcher by any means, with a career ground ball percentage 5% lower than the MLB average. Opposing batters hit a collective .347 off of him in limited action last season and I'm confident we'll see the Dodgers tee off tonight as well after finally waking up late in yesterday's eventual rout of the Reds. Trevor Bauer isn't off to a positive dominant start with his new club but he's certainly been good, and draws an undermanned Brewers lineup as I mentioned. Last year's N.L. Cy Young Award winner has held opposing hitters to a collective .135 batting average here in 2021 after posting a .159 opponents' batting average last season. His walks are down and his strikeouts are up and while he's recorded a relatively high fly ball percentage and home run percentage I would expect that to balance out in due time. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Canucks 6-3 loss in Ottawa last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and go the other way and back the 'under' as they continue their road trip in Toronto on Thursday. This is of course a rematch of two games played in Vancouver last week, as the Canucks returned to the ice following a long layoff following a Covid outbreak and stunningly defeated the Leafs in consecutive games. Since then, Vancouver has gone 1-3 in four games against the Senators, scoring just eight goals in those four contests. Scoring will likely continue to be an issue on this trip as the Leafs are allowing just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season and will certainly be up for this rematch with Vancouver. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Leafs seeking revenge for a loss where they allowed four goals or more this season, as is the case here, with those games totaling just 4.6 goals on average. Toronto has allowed just 2.3 goals per game on average when in a revenge situation this season. Of course, it's been a struggle at the best of times for the Canucks when playing on the road this season, where they average just 2.7 goals per contest. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last five meetings here in Toronto and nine of the last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Islanders +114 v. Rangers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 114 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Game of the Week. My selection is on the Islanders over the Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Islanders are having a tough time finding an offensive spark right now, having scored just three goals during a three-game losing streak - with all of those losses coming against the Capitals. They'll be happy to face a different team here tonight, especially the rival Rangers here at Madison Square Garden where they've taken four of the last seven meetings. While the Rangers have won three games in a row and seven of their last nine overall, it's important to consider the level of opposition they've faced. Those nine games including games against the Devils (four), Islanders, Flyers (two) and Sabres (two). Outside of the Isles those other three are all non-playoff teams and could be considered among the worst defensive teams in the league. Here, the Rangers are in a tough spot having gone 3-10 the last 13 times they've played at home after winning three of their last four games, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that situation. While the Isles won't be confused for an offensive juggernaut any time soon, they are in a favorable situation here having averaged 4.0 goals per game the last eight times they've come off a one-goal loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. Under the guidance of head coach Barry Trotz, the Isles have gone 14-7 the last 21 times they've played on the road after losing three of their last four games overall, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the David Quinn-coached rangers are just 18-30 when coming off a win over a division opponent, giving up 3.4 goals per game in that spot. Take the Islanders (10*). |
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04-29-21 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The A's bats have gone cold once again which makes this an opportune time for the Rays to bring up highly-touted left-handed pitching prospect Shane McClanahan for his first big league start. Of course, this won't be McClanahan's first MLB appearance as he got a taste of postseason action last October, making three appearances in the ALDS and World Series. All indications are that McClanahan is ready to make the permanent leap and could actually be fighting for a potential rotation spot should Ryan Yarbrough and Rich Hill continue to struggle. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm high on Bassitt despite his uneven start to the season. Bassitt finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and will earn just shy of $5M pitching for the A's this season. After a rocky start, he's settled down, recording better than MLB average hard-hit ball, line drive, ground ball and fly ball percentages. He's always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and so far this season he's posted a stellar 1.6% home run percentage. Command has been a bit of an issue in the early going but it should only be a matter of time before he works that out, noting that he owns a career walk percentage right around the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series, thanks in large part to the absence of the Orioles bats, with the 'under' cashing in each of the last three games. I look for that trend to continue this afternoon as we work with another inflated total. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for New York. He has held opposing hitters to a collective .190 batting average so far this season while recording better than MLB average hard-hit ball and ground ball percentages. The former A.L. Rookie of the Year Award contender (he finished sixth in voting in 2017) should make quick work of the O's slumping bats this afternoon. Meanwhile, O's starter Jorge Lopez owns an ugly 8.15 ERA and 1.42 WHIP so far this season but it's not all doom and gloom. Lopez has actually recorded a respectable 36.5% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 48.1% ground ball percentage. He's been bitten by the home run ball, which has pretty much been par for the course over his big league career, but he has also held opposing hitters to a reasonable .257 batting average. Perhaps he catches a break here with the Yanks fat and happy off consecutive blowout wins on getaway day. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Coyotes v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams two nights ago as the Sharks snapped their long losing streak with a 6-4 win on home ice. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however, as the two teams wrap up a two-game set in San Jose. The Coyotes have scored four goals in each of their last two games but I'm not sure that level of production is sustainable given they had managed three goals or less in their six previous contests. Prior to potting six goals on Monday, the Sharks had been held to three goals or less in eight consecutive games. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-6 with the Sharks playing at home after losing four of their last five games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 5.2 goals. We've also seen San Jose post a 15-33 o/u mark when playing at home after allowing four goals or more in its last game over the last two seasons, with the Sharks averaging just 2.4 goals per game in that spot. Arizona checks in allowing just 2.1 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in a game this season, as is the case here, with that situation totaling just 5.1 goals on average. On the flip side, the Coyotes average just 2.6 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring contests to open this series and we've gone 1-1 backing the 'over' on Monday before missing with the Giants last night. Here, I'll back the 'under' as we should see a well-pitched game between two left-handed starters. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies. He's been terrific in the early going this season, recording a 38.0% hard-hit ball percentage and an 86.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Marquez has always been a good ground ball pitcher and he's been terrific in that regard early this season, recording a 60.8% ground ball percentage - 17.3% higher than the MLB average. His walk percentage is up by I would anticipate some improvement in that department given he owns a career 6.7% walk percentage - 1.8% lower than the MLB average. Alex Wood will continue his comeback for the Giants. He's pitching for his third team in as many seasons after getting in limited work over the last two years. Like Marquez, he's been effective in the early going this season, recording a 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.6 mph exit velocity. Also like Marquez, he's inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate having recorded a 60.7% ground ball percentage. There's reason to believe he can keep it up as he owns a career ground ball percentage 4.4% higher than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 2-5 | Loss | -204 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado +1.5 goals over Vegas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. It's not often I'll make a play in this price range but I actually feel the price could be even higher with the Avs grabbing a goal-and-a-half in Las Vegas on Wednesday night. Colorado is of course coming off consecutive losses in St. Louis including an ugly 4-1 setback on Monday. The Avs already appeared to have one foot on the plane after falling behind big in that one, perhaps rightfully so as they were winding down a long four-game set against the Blues. I look for a much sharper effort from the Avs here, noting they've gone 15-5 when playing on the road off a loss by three goals or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. We've also seen the Avs go 25-8 the last 33 times they've been seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals per game in that spot. Vegas enters this game riding a nine-game winning streak but it has done so by beating up on the likes of Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose - three non-playoff teams - over its last eight contests. Note that Colorado has held its own here in Vegas, going 4-3 over the last seven meetings. Take Colorado +1.5 goals (9*). |
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04-28-21 | Lakers v. Wizards UNDER 226 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a track meet in Los Angeles back in February as they combined to score 251 points in a Wizards upset win. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair this time around. The Wizards have been beating up on some bad defensive teams in recent weeks. They enter this game having scored at least 117 points in nine straight games but consider that seven of those contests came against the Kings, Pelicans, Pistons, Thunder (twice), Cavs and Spurs - a who's who of the league's worst defensive squads. Here, they'll face a Lakers team that checks in allowing just 104.8 points per game on 45.6% shooting away from home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11-1 clip. Since getting Anthony Davis back on the floor, Los Angeles has held each of its last three opponents to 48.8% or worse shooting after previously allowing two of its last three opponents to shoot better than 56% from the field. While the Lakers are coming off a 114-point performance against the lowly Magic two nights ago, they've actually been held to fewer than 98 points in six of their last 15 games which can be considered a real streak of offensive futility in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 14-5 with the Lakers playing on the road off an ATS loss this season with those games totaling an average of just 212.7 points. The 'under' is also 26-13 the last 39 times the Lakers have been seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 110 or more points, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 214.0 points. With Los Angeles revenging a home loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Frank Vogel they've seen an average total of just 215.1 points in 27 previous opportunities. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Royals -115 v. Pirates | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City over Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals saw their five-game winning streak come to an end in a 2-1 loss to the Pirates last night. I look for them to start a new streak on Wednesday, however, as they hand the ball to Mike Minor against Mitch Keller. It's easy to forget that Minor is just one season removed from finishing eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting in an All-Star campaign with the Rangers in 2019. He was effective last year as well, splitting time with the Rangers and Royals and he's off to a fine start here in 2021. Minor has recorded a better than MLB average 37.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while holding opposing hitters to a collective .232 batting average through four starts, spanning 21 1/3 innings of work. It's been a completely different story for Pirates starter Mitch Keller. He had a miserable spring and hasn't been any better here in the regular season, posting an ERA north of seven and a 1.78 WHIP through four starts, covering a span of 16 1/3 innings. Opposing hitters have teed off on Keller to the tune of a 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.1 mph exit velocity with his line drive and fly ball percentages both sitting near 30% - considerably worse than the MLB average. For his career, opposing hitters are batting a collective .297 against Keller, 48 points north of the MLB average. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Canucks v. Senators OVER 5.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Ottawa at 5:35 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair on Monday night as the Senators skated to a 2-1 victory in the third straight meeting between them. The 'under' has now cashed in each of the last three meetings here in Ottawa but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'over' in this early start matchup on Wednesday. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 with the Canucks having lost two of their last three games this season, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've also seen the 'over' go 13-5 the last 18 times the Canucks have come off a game where three goals or less were scored, as is the case here, with that spot resulting in an average total of 7.1 goals. While the Senators aren't going to blow the doors off of anyone offensively, they do check in playing fairly consistent hockey in that regard, having scored an average of 3.25 goals per game over their last eight games. Take the over (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night as the Reds took a second straight game in the series by a 6-5 score. Clayton Kershaw will be tasked with being the stopper for the Dodgers on Wednesday as they look to end a three-game losing streak. After a miserable spring, Kershaw has taken no time at all to round back into form during the regular season, posting a 2.56 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 31 2/3 innings of work. While he's not the dominant pitcher he once was, he is coming off a 2020 campaign that saw him finish ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and play a big role in the Dodgers World Series championship. Here this season he's back to inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.0% ground ball percentage and an even more impressive 15.7% line drive percentage. He has held opposing hitters to a collective .218 batting average while recording a terrific 3.2% walk percentage and a 2.4% home run percentage. The Reds will give the nod to Sonny Gray for his third start of the campaign. He missed time in the spring due to injury and is clearly still trying to round into form. I expect that to happen sooner rather than later and note that he has recorded an excellent 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 29.3% strikeout percentage through limited work (8.0 innings pitched) so far this season. Walks have been an issue, just as they always have, but we can certainly anticipate some positive regression to the mean when it comes to his 12.2% walk percentage. Note that despite the 'over' cashing in the first two games in this series, the 'under' remains a solid 29-13 in the Reds last 42 games when priced as a road underdog between +125 and +175, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Manchester City v. Paris Saint-Germain OVER 2.75 | 2-1 | Win | 50 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Note: I'm recommending a play on the alternate total of 2.5 goals, which should be available at most books. We saw a low-scoring match in the first Champions League semi-final match yesterday as Real Madrid and Chelsea played to a 1-1 draw. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as PSG hosts Manchester City. There was some concern that PSG superstar Kylian Mbappe may not be fit for this match after he was forced to leave the team's last game (after scoring a pair of goals) with a leg injury. All indications are that he is good to go, however, which obviously gives PSG a big boost, and a puncher's chance against an elite Manchester City squad. It's interesting to note that PSG has played very different styles in the first leg compared to the second leg in its last two Champions League rounds. Against Barcelona it racked up four goals in the first leg before playing it smart in a 1-1 draw to win 5-2 on aggregate. Next up against mighty Bayern Munich, PSG put up three goals in the opener before dropping a 1-0 decision in the second leg to advance on away goals. Here, I look for PSG to once again employ an attacking style in the opener against Man City, knowing it isn't built to prevail in a low-scoring affair, and also with its hopes of a Ligue 1 title dwindling, eager to throw everything it has at the drive toward a Champions League crown. You would have to go back to March 13th to find the last time Man City scored more than two goals in a game. With that being said, it has been incredibly consistent offensively in UCL play, scoring 11 goals in its last five matches. I certainly expect Man City to be afforded plenty opportunity to find the back of the net in this one, noting that PSG benefited in the quarters by facing a Bayern Munich squad without Robert Lewandowski (Bayern still managed to score a goal without him in the second leg). Speaking to City's depth up front is the fact that Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus will once again likely be relegated to the bench but could certainly be called upon should it need a spark in this one. I'm anticipating a 2-1 or 2-2 final scoreline here. Take the over 2.5 goals (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Rockies v. Giants -165 | 7-5 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Colorado at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants have exceeded expectations so far this season, off to a 15-8 start following last night's 12-0 rout of the Rockies. Many expected Colorado to be one of baseball's worst teams and that's held true so far as they check in 8-14 on the campaign. Interestingly, the Rockies had won five of their last seven games prior to last night's setback but all seven of those games were played at home, where they've been a much different team. Chi Chi Gonzalez will get a spot start for the Rockies here. He's been alright in four appearances so far this season but certainly not dominant by any means. That's pretty much par for the course over his big league career. Gonzalez has yet to allow a home run this season but noting he has recorded a 4.0% and 3.3% home run percentage over the last two seasons with the Rockies, we can anticipate some regression to the mean in that department. Also note that his strikeout rate is down while his walk rate is north of 11.0% for the third straight season, albeit with a small sample size. Aaron Sanchez gets his fifth start of the season for the Giants. He's looking to make a comeback to respectability after a cup of coffee with the Astros last season. So far, so good as Sanchez has posted a 1.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings of work. He's gotten back to what made him so successful early in his career with the Blue Jays, keeping the ball down in the zone and inducing lots of ground balls. Sanchez has recorded a 61.0% ground ball percentage and 15.3% fly ball percentage so far this season, a perfect recipe for pitching in San Francisco. His strikeout rate is down slightly but his walk rate is down significantly as he seems to have improved his command and should be able to continue to pitch well against a Rockies club that hits a miserable .195 on the road this season. Note that Colorado checks in 4-21 the last 25 times its been on the road revenging a loss where it scored a run or less over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 runs in that situation. Meanwhile, the Giants are 23-10 after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games over the last three seasons, averaging 5.4 runs per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 runs in that spot. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Hurricanes -124 v. Stars | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Carolina over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Hurricanes got off a miserable start last night and despite rallying they ultimately fell short in a 4-3 overtime loss. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday as they cool off the surging Stars in Dallas. Note that Carolina checks in allowing just 2.0 goals per game when playing on the road following a one-goal loss in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. They've allowed just 1.8 goals per game the last 12 times they've played on the road following an overtime setback, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Dallas checks in allowing 3.3 goals per game after posting consecutive one-goal victories over division opponents (the last eight times that situation has come up). The Stars will have to contend with a Canes squad that averages an impressive 3.7 goals per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. It's been a true case of 'feast or famine' for the Stars offense for much of the season, noting that they average 3.3 goals per game on home ice but have only managed to go an even 13-13. Look for Carolina to get off to a more favorable start in tonight's game and snap its two-game skid, noting that it hasn't dropped three games in a row since March 16th-20th. Take Carolina (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It's been a long time coming but White Sox ace Lucas Giolito will finally get his opportunity to bounce back from a miserable performance in his last start in Boston eight days ago as he draws a favorable matchup against a weak Tigers lineup. Despite that ugly outing against the Red Sox on Patriots Day, Giolito still owns tremendous numbers across the board this season. He's kept opposing hitters off balance to the tune of a 34.0% hard-hit ball percentage and an 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His strikeout percentage sits at 32.1% and while you would assume some regression would be coming in that department, keep in mind he has posted a strikeout percentage north of 30% in each of the last two seasons. Opponents are hitting just .230 against Giolito this season, which is pretty much par for the course in terms of his career numbers as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .222 batting average since breaking into the bigs in 2016. Note that the 'under' is 28-14 in Giolito's last 42 starts against division opponents. Jose Urena will counter for Detroit. He had a strong spring with his new club and while things haven't gone superbly through four regular season starts, he has been serviceable at least. I like the fact that Urena is inducing ground balls at a good clip, having posted a 50.0% ground ball percentage and an even more impressive 12.9% fly ball percentage. While he needs to get his walks down, he has improved considerably on his strikeout rate. Going back to last season with the Marlins, opposing hitters have posted a collective batting average right around .240 against him, which is considerably better than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams in last night's series opener as the Astros cruised to a 5-2 victory. Note that the 'over' is 28-14 in the Mariners last 42 games as a road underdog priced between +150 and +200 with those games totaling well over 10 runs. We've also seen the 'over' cash at a 17-6 clip in the Mariners last 23 night games played on the road. The Astros have now scored at least five runs in four of their last five games and should be able to keep it going against Mariners starter Marco Gonzales on Tuesday. Opponents are seeing the ball well against the Mariners supposed ace, as he's recorded a 42.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB average. His 6.3% home run percentage and 8.3 walk percentage spells trouble against an Astros lineup that can mash here at home. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. His 36.4% strikeout percentage isn't sustainable in my opinion as he comes off a fantastic performance last time out. I do think it's only a matter of time before his 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 26.7% ground ball percentage/40.0% fly ball percentage catches up with him, especially pitching here in Houston. After recording an ugly 5.1% home run percentage in 54 1/3 innings of work last season he's yet to allow a home run here in 2021. Expect that to change on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Lightning v. Blackhawks +1.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the insurance goal with the Blackhawks here as the situation sets up well for them to keep pace with the Lightning on home ice. Note that Tampa Bay is just 3-7 in its last 10 games following a one-goal victory, allowing 3.8 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that situation. Worse still, the Bolts are 1-5 in their last six games off an overtime win, allowing 4.3 goals per game and outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are 10-2 at home off a loss against a division opponent this season, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. They're also a solid 24-18 in their last 42 games after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, allowing 2.8 goals per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.1 goals (only notable due to the fact we're grabbing the +1.5 here) in that situation. Finally, it's worth mentioning that Chicago has gone 19-8 when playing at home off a loss by two or more goals over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. Tampa has taken three straight meetings in this series by multiple goals but this is a tough one-game road trip with the Blackhawks sitting at home well rested following three days off. Take Chicago +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics -11.5 | 119-115 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We haven't faded Oklahoma City much during its current 3-14-1 ATS slide but I will do so on Tuesday as the Thunder limp into Boston following back-to-back losses by 20+ points. Boston is expected to be without Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum but I don't expect it to roll over in their absence. The Celtics are coming off an 0-2 trip to Brooklyn and Charlotte which included an ugly 21-point rout at the hands of the Hornets on Sunday afternoon. Note that Boston checks in a perfect 9-0 ATS the last nine times it has come off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by a whopping average margin of 17.2 points in that situation. The C's average north of 125 points per game in that spot and should be able to feast on a Thunder squad that have allowed their last two opponents to shoot 51.6% and 54.7% from the field. Despite Sunday's poor showing, the Celtics are fairly locked-in defensively, having held five of their last eight opponents to 45.6% or worse shooting. Note that Oklahoma City averages just 94 points and loses by an average margin of 17.2 points when playing on the road after giving up 120 points or more this season. The Celtics took the first matchup in this series this season by 17 points in Oklahoma City back on March 27th and I expect a similar outcome here. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Red Wings v. Blue Jackets -136 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's not easy to back the Blue Jackets these days but I believe the price is right to get behind them as they look to snap their nine-game losing streak against the Red Wings on Tuesday night. Note that Columbus has gone 7-1 the last eight times it has played at home off seven or more consecutive losses, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. The Blue Jackets are also 10-2 when returning home following three or more consecutive road games over the last three season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that spot. Detroit, meanwhile, has gone a miserable 6-37 when playing on the road off a loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 goals per game. Columbus has gone a nice job of tightening things up defensively in similar situations in recent years, allowing just 2.1 goals per game when playing at home off an overtime loss over the last three seasons. While the Jackets are reeling, I'm not going to get too down on them as they're off a very tough six-game road trip that saw them face a surging Stars squad, the Panthers and the Lightning - with the latter two serving as two of the league's top teams. Three losses during their current skid came on home ice, but the first was in a revenge spot for the Lightning and the other two certainly could have gone either way as they dropped consecutive one-goal decisions against the Blackhawks. Note that Columbus has won three of its last four meetings with Detroit on home ice. Sitting two points behind the Wings in the standings you have to think that pride kicks in for the Jackets here. Take Columbus (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of this series last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Yankees send Corey Kluber to the hill against Bruce Zimmermann of the Orioles. Kluber is clearly on the downside of what has been a tremendous career. He's posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.93 WHIP through four starts. Most concerning is his 30.4% fly ball percentage and 4.1% home run percentage, especially as he prepares to pitch at hitter-friendly Camden Yards on Tuesday. Kluber's command just hasn't been there since the start of the 2019 season, due to injuries and otherwise. He checks in with an ugly walk percentage north of 15% through four starts this season. Zimmermann has been average at best as a back-end of the rotation starter for the Orioles. Like Kluber he has also posted a worse than MLB average fly ball percentage at 23.5% while inducing ground balls at a poor rate (38.2% ground ball percentage this season). His career home run percentage sits at 5.0% compared to the MLB average of 3.4%. Again, not a good sign as he faces a homer-happy Yankees lineup at Camden Yards. Over the course of Zimmermann's brief big league career, opposing hitters own a collective .269 batting average and .481 slugging percentage against him. Note that the 'over' is 43-26 in the Yankees last 69 division games away from home and 45-29 in the Orioles last 74 games as a home underdog priced +125 or higher. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Royals v. Pirates OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Royals didn't need a lot of offense to sweep the light-hitting Tigers over the last four days but I look for their offense to come to life in Tuesday's Interleague series-opener in Pittsburgh. Jakob Junis gets the start for Kansas City. While he owns a solid 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP it's probably only a matter of time before we see those numbers inflate considering he has recorded a 52.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. To put it simply, Junis isn't fooling opposing hitters in the early going this season. While his strikeout rate is up, so is his walk rate. Opponents are hitting a collective .230 against him but we can anticipate some regression in that department as he owns a worse than MLB average career opponents' batting average of .271. Tyler Anderson makes his fifth start of the season for the Pirates. As we've noted before, Anderson is pitching for his third club in as many seasons. He's not an awful pitcher by any means but certainly can be taken advantage of by what I would consider an above average Royals lineup. Note that Anderson owns worse than MLB average career numbers in terms of opponents batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage and that has held true in the early going this season. He hasn't induced ground balls at better than a 38.9% ground ball percentage since back in 2017 (the MLB average is 43.5%). Expect plenty of offense at PNC Park on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8 | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's series-opener between these two teams found it's way 'over' the total thanks to a walk-off two-run home run from the Indians in extra innings. That's quite simply a risk that has to be factored in these days in MLB (we lost in a similar situation with the Reds hitting a two-run home run in extras against the Dodgers last night, spoiling our 'under' bet). Here, I'm anticipating another well-pitched game. Kenta Maeda has gotten off to a surprisingly horrible start to the season after a terrific spring. The numbers aren't pretty but I'm confident in Maeda's ability to bounce back, noting that he finished second in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and also finished third in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting as a member of the Dodgers back in 2016. There is some reason for encouragement as Maeda has recorded a better than MLB average walk percentage at 5.7% so far this season. Opposing hitters are batting a collective .354 against him but we're bound to see some regression as he owns a career .225 opponents' batting average. He should benefit from facing a relatively light-hitting Indians lineup on Tuesday. Aaron Civale will counter for the Indians. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I've been high on him all season. With that being said, he couldn't make an early 3-0 lead stand up in his most recent start against the Yankees. Here, I look for a positive response from Civale, noting that he has recorded a 33.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a better than MLB average 44.6% ground ball percentage. Civale's walks are up but so are his strikeouts (slightly) and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .161 batting average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Chelsea +0.5 v. Real Madrid | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chelsea +0.5 goals over Real Madrid at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Note: I'm recommending playing this at +0.5 goals which may be an alternate goal-line at your book. I get the feeling many bettors feel that backing Real Madrid in the first leg of this Champions League semi-final matchup will serve as a safe investment given the fact that Los Blancos haven't lost a match since January (they're riding a 17-game unbeaten streak). Of course, Real Madrid also has the Champions League pedigree with 13 all-time wins and has the benefit of playing at home. That's not to mention the fact that Real will have Eden Hazard back on the pitch after he returned and played 30 minutes in its last match. However, I don't expect Chelsea to simply roll over. Yes, the Blues have one eye on the Premier League, where they sit fourth in the table by the slimmest of margins but there's no question they'll have little trouble getting up for this trip to Spain to face a true world football power. While Real Madrid has Hazard at possibly less than 100% health and will be without Sergio Ramos as he continues to work his way back from injury, Chelsea has a full squad for this semi-final opener. The Blues certainly weren't happy with their performance in their last Champions League match as they lost 1-0 against Porto on home soil (after taking the first leg 2-0 in Sevilla to hold on for a 2-1 aggregate victory). They'll be looking to make amends here and while Real Madrid serves as an extremely difficult squad to break down, I expect the Blues to keep pace for the full 90+ minutes. Take Chelsea +0.5 goals (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Cincinnati got off to a strong start offensively this season but has fallen into a deep slump during a seven-game slide, scoring four runs or less in five of those games. On a positive note, Reds starter Tyler Mahle has seemingly been getting better with each passing year and through four starts here in 2021 has put it all together for a tremendous start to the campaign. Mahle has recorded a 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. After opposing batters hit a collective .198 against him in 47 2/3 innings last season, they're hitting a paltry .130 against him this season. While Mahle's command has been a bit of an issue with an 11.3% walk percentage, he has made up for it by posting an incredible 38.8% strikeout percentage. While some regression is certainly in order in that last department, he does catch the Dodgers in a favorable spot here off an emotional series against the Padres following a wild 8-7 extra innings loss last night in which they blew a late 7-1 lead. Julio Urias will be asked to get the Dodgers back on track on Monday and he would appear to be the right one to do it. Urias had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 2.81 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through four starts. He's not doing it with smoke and mirrors either, as he's recorded an incredible 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's improved on both his strikeout and walk percentages, albeit with a relatively small sample size, and has held opposing hitters to a collective .211 batting average. For his career, opponents are hitting just .232 against him, nearly 20 points lower than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Ducks v. Kings -154 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Monday. This really has been a lost season for both of these California rivals but it's the Ducks that are in even worse shape down the stretch, having lost four straight games, scoring just four goals in the process and now dealing with a cluster of key injuries. This is an awful spot to begin with for Anaheim as it has gone 0-11 when revenging a loss against an opponent by three goals or more this season, outscored by 2.2 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Kings are in a solid bounce-back spot off Saturday's 4-0 home loss to the Coyotes (we won with the 'under' in that game) as they average 3.4 goals per game and outscore the opposition by 1.4 goals on average when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons. Also note that Los Angeles averages an impressive 3.9 goals per game after losing four of its last five games this season and 3.3 goals per contest after giving up three or more goals in consecutive games here in 2021. While the Kings check in off consecutive losses, they haven't dropped three games in a row since April 2nd to 5th. The Ducks current four-game skid doesn't come close to matching their longest losing streak of the season, which covered a span of nine games from February 15th until March 5th. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The 'under' in San Francisco probably looks like a pretty safe place to put your money at the start of a new week, after all the Giants have posted a 2-7-1 o/u mark at home this season and we already saw a three-game series between these two teams here in San Fran deliver three consecutive 'under' results earlier this season. I'm going to go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we have a very average pitching matchup with Austin Gomber against Anthony DeSclafani and with both teams getting their second look of the season against those starters. Gomber continues to struggle with his command at the big league level, recording an inflated 17.2% walk percentage in the early going this season, moving his career percentage to 11.5% - nearly 3% higher than the MLB average. He has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance with a 30.8% hard-hit ball percentage but I'm concerned about his 38.5% fly ball percentage and we're bound to see some regression to the mean when it comes to his .143 opponents batting average so far this season. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani has been hit hard to the tune of a 48.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's never been what you would call a ground ball pitcher but so far this season has recorded a ground ball percentage north of 58%. He's been a little less effective with each passing start, however, and I look for him to face a significant challenge against a Rockies club that has been surprisingly tough at the plate lately, scoring five runs or more in five straight and seven of their last nine games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Grizzlies +4 v. Nuggets | 96-120 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. This would appear to be a pretty obvious fade spot for the Grizzlies as they wrap up a long, successful seven-game road trip with a second stop in Denver in less than a week. However, the Grizz have done nothing but impress and off another big performance in a win over the Blazers yesterday, I look for them to keep it rolling on Monday. While this is certainly a tough back-to-back spot for Memphis, it is worth noting that it managed its starters minutes well in yesterday's game, with no one playing more than 30 minutes. Jonas Valanciunas just returned yesterday after missing time due to a concussion so he should have fresh legs for this one. The Grizz know they can hang with the Nuggets having taken Denver to overtime (without Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks) just last week. Meanwhile, Denver was already without Jamal Murray and is now missing key secondary scorer Will Barton as well. The Nuggets shot the lights out in a lopsided win over the lowly Rockets on Saturday but that actually sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 6-17 ATS the last 23 times they've come off a 55% or better shooting performance, outscored by an average margin of 4.3 points in that spot. They're also just 23-38 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.5 points on average in that situation. The Grizzlies are quite simply the hottest bet in the league and locked in defensively right now, having held their last three opponents to 45.2%, 47.9% and 37.1% shooting. Take Memphis (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-09-21 | Mavs v. Cavs OVER 216.5 | 124-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
05-09-21 | Pirates +155 v. Cubs | 6-5 | Win | 155 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
05-09-21 | Diamondbacks +275 v. Mets | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
05-08-21 | Thunder v. Warriors -14 | Top | 97-136 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
05-08-21 | Dodgers v. Angels +131 | 14-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
05-08-21 | Ducks v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
05-08-21 | Blue Jays +135 v. Astros | 8-4 | Win | 135 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
05-08-21 | Devils v. Islanders -220 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
05-07-21 | Coyotes v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
05-07-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights -158 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
05-07-21 | Cavs v. Mavs UNDER 221 | Top | 90-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
05-07-21 | White Sox v. Royals +143 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
05-07-21 | Pelicans v. 76ers -9.5 | 107-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
05-07-21 | Stars v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
05-07-21 | Nationals +170 v. Yankees | 11-4 | Win | 170 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
05-06-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 211 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
05-06-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 103 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
05-06-21 | Rangers v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
05-06-21 | Devils v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
05-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 7 | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
05-06-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
05-06-21 | Brewers -115 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Kings v. Coyotes -130 | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
05-05-21 | Blue Jays v. A's -119 | 9-4 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
05-05-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Avalanche v. Sharks +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
05-05-21 | Jets +109 v. Flames | 4-0 | Win | 109 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
05-05-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 104 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | 3-6 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
05-05-21 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
05-05-21 | Brewers -130 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds -123 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
05-04-21 | Oilers v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -141 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
05-04-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 9 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals -134 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals OVER 9 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
05-04-21 | Warriors v. Pelicans -2.5 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
05-04-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Twins | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
05-03-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 220 | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
05-03-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -1 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks UNDER 236.5 | 114-123 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
05-03-21 | Ducks v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
05-03-21 | Jets -142 v. Senators | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -142 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
05-03-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 2-5 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
05-02-21 | Raptors v. Lakers -7 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
05-02-21 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
05-02-21 | Orioles v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
05-02-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 7 | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
05-01-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 14-6 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
05-01-21 | Blues v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
05-01-21 | Panthers v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
05-01-21 | Dodgers -124 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
05-01-21 | Pistons v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 94-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
05-01-21 | Sabres v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
04-30-21 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
04-30-21 | Orioles v. A's UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
04-30-21 | Sharks v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | 0-3 | Win | 101 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies -10.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
04-30-21 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies UNDER 225 | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
04-30-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8 | 6-1 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
04-30-21 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9 | 6-8 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
04-30-21 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
04-29-21 | Pelicans -9 v. Thunder | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder OVER 230.5 | 109-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
04-29-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
04-29-21 | Dodgers -152 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -152 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
04-29-21 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
04-29-21 | Islanders +114 v. Rangers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 114 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
04-29-21 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
04-29-21 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
04-28-21 | Coyotes v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
04-28-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
04-28-21 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 2-5 | Loss | -204 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
04-28-21 | Lakers v. Wizards UNDER 226 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
04-28-21 | Royals -115 v. Pirates | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
04-28-21 | Canucks v. Senators OVER 5.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
04-28-21 | Manchester City v. Paris Saint-Germain OVER 2.75 | 2-1 | Win | 50 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Rockies v. Giants -165 | 7-5 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Hurricanes -124 v. Stars | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
04-27-21 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
04-27-21 | Lightning v. Blackhawks +1.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics -11.5 | 119-115 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Red Wings v. Blue Jackets -136 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
04-27-21 | Royals v. Pirates OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8 | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Chelsea +0.5 v. Real Madrid | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
04-26-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
04-26-21 | Ducks v. Kings -154 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
04-26-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
04-26-21 | Grizzlies +4 v. Nuggets | 96-120 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 30 m | Show |