At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (479) and the Seattle Seahawks (480). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 34-31 loss at Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on December 5th. Seattle (8-5) has won four games in a row after their 30-18 upset win at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have not allowed more than 21 points in their four games since returning their bye week in Week 10 — and they have held their four opponents to just 15.5 Points-Per-Game. They went into their bye week ranked 15th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they have risen all the way up to second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA now. They also rank second in Opponent Expected Points Added per play Allowed since their bye week. General manager John Schneider and head coach Mike Macdonald made several crucial moves to set up this dramatic improvement. They traded for middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV from Tennessee on October 23rd who they acquired from the Los Angeles Rams in the preseason. They cut bait on two of the linebackers they acquired in free agency in the offseason who were not fitting Macdonald’s system. Jerome Baker was dealt away in the Jones IV trade and they released Tryel Dodson on November 11th. Macdonald then elevated rookie Tyrice Knight from UTEP as the second starting interior linebacker next to Jones IV. The positive results from these moves have been stark. After ranking 31st in Opponent EPA per Rushing Attempt Allowed from Weeks One through Eight, they have ranked fourth in that metric since. They also rank third in Opponent Early Down Rush Success Rate Allowed since the bye week after previously ranking last in that category. Jones IV is averaging 10.5 tackles per game. Because Jones IV and Knight are slowing down the run, Macdonald does not have to cheat safeties Julian Love and Coby Bryant into the box — and that has helped their pass defense. After ranking 19th in Opponent Expected Points Added per dropback Allowed before their bye, they have ranked fifth in that metric since. Seattle enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Packers average 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams generating 7.0 or more YPA. On the other side of the ball, quarterback Geno Smith has not been as effective at home as he has been on the road. Smith is completing 71.5% of his passes with six touchdown passes and only two interceptions on the road with a 96.9 Passer Rating — but when at home, he is completing 67.8% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and ten interceptions with an 84.5 Passer Rating. Green By only gained 298 yards against an injury-riddled Lions defense last week — one of their touchdowns was courtesy of another reckless failed fourth down attempt called by Detroit head coach Dan Campbell deep inside their side of the field. The Packers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after a loss. Quarterback Jordan Love has played better at home where he is completing 64.6% of his passes with 15 touchdown passes and seven interceptions — but he is only completing 59.7% of his passes on the road and averaging -33.4 fewer passing Yards-Per-Game with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games at home when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (479) and the Seattle Seahawks (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-6) has won six of their last eight games after their 44-42 upset win against Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (6-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 38-13 win against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams generated 457 yards of offense against a good Bills defense last week — but they also surrounded 445 yards in that game in what turned out to be a shootout. Los Angeles finally has a healthy offensive line to give quarterback Matthew Stafford more time to find wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Since Week Eight, the Rams ranks third in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play after ranking in the bottom half of the league before that with their wide receiver room not at full strength. They are scoring 26.3 Points-Per-Game in their last seven games and have scored at least 26 points in four of those games. But Los Angeles is also giving up 25.4 PPG in their last seven games — and six of those seven opponents have scored at least 20 points. They have seen 51.7 combined points scored on average in their last seven games — and they have seen 57 combined points scored on average in their last four contests. In a game between two teams desperate for the victory tonight, both teams should score (at least) in the 20s and playing with scoring urgency in the fourth quarter. The Rams' defense will be without their standout cornerback Cobe Durant to a chest injury. He has been holding opposing quarterbacks throwing at him to just a 58% completion percentage and a Passer Rating of 75.6. Los Angeles ranks 30th in Points Allowed per Drive. Their opponents are also ranked 30th in Opponent EPA Allowed per dropback in the passing game. Their opponents are either scoring touchdowns or reaching the end zone in 44% of their possessions. The Rams have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total when not playing with extended rest — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Over the Total when not playing with extended rest. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. San Francisco rediscovered their offense last week by generating 452 yards against a solid Bears defense (even without injured left tackle Trent Williams). Rookie running back Isaac Guerendo played well as the lead back in that game — and while he is listed as questionable with a leg injury for this game, he has vowed to play. But the 49ers defense has struggled lately by allowing 35 and 38 points before holding the Bears to 13 points. Defensive end Nick Bosa is questionable to play with a hip and oblique injury. San Francisco has played five games against teams who rank in the top in Offensive DVOA according to the metrics by the Football Outsiders. They are allowing 30.4 PPG against those five opponents with each of those teams scoring at least 24 points. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after winning at home in their last game. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a home favorite of up to seven points. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against fellow NFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total in December — and the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in December. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (452) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (451). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (6-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 38-13 win against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (7-6) has won six of their last eight games after their 44-42 upset win against Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles comes off their best effort of the season in their upset victory against the Bills on Sunday. They generated 457 yards of offense against a good Bills defense last week — but they also surrounded 445 yards in that game in what turned out to be a shootout. One of their touchdowns came from a blocked punt. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 15 games following an upset win under head coach Sean McVay. Going on the road on a short week adds to the challenge. The Rams are giving up 25.4 PPG in their last seven games — and six of those seven opponents have scored at least 20 points. Now this defense will be without their standout cornerback Cobe Durant to a chest injury. He has been holding opposing quarterbacks throwing at him to just a 58% completion percentage and a Passer Rating of 75.6. Los Angeles ranks 30th in Points Allowed per Drive. Their opponents are also ranked 30th in Opponent EPA Allowed per dropback in the passing game. Their opponents are either scoring touchdowns or reaching the end zone in 44% of their possessions. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road as the underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. San Francisco rediscovered their offense last week by generating 452 yards against a solid Bears defense (even without injured left tackle Trent Williams). Rookie running back Isaac Guerendo played well as the lead back in that game — and while he is listed as questionable with a leg injury for this game, he has vowed to play. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games at home against fellow NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against fellow NFC West rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (452) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (143) and the Dallas Cowboys (144). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-8) has lost three games in a row after their 44-38 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (5-7) has won two games in a row after their 27-20 loss against the New York Giants as a 4-point favorite back on Thanksgiving to start Week 13.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It is hard to not expect the Bengals to continue to get into high-scoring game shootouts. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have scored at least 27 points in their last four games during a stretch where they have averaged 35.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have surrendered at least 34 points in five straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. If the Bengals had simply split their eight games decided by one scoring possession, they would be in the heart of the AFC playoff race with a 7-5 record and Burrow would be in the MVP conversation. He has thrown 30 touchdown passes with just two interceptions. In his last four games, he has 15 touchdown passes and only two interceptions while averaging 336 passing Yards-Per-Game. Now he gets to face a Cowboys defense that ranks 28th in the league in Opponents Expected Points Added per play. Dallas has surrendered touchdowns in 30 of the 39 trips by their opponents into the Red Zone. The Bengals rank second in the NFL in Red Zone Touchdown Rate and fifth in Third Down Conversion Rate — so look for Cincinnati’s drives to not have to settle for field goals. Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer loves to blitz — and they lead the NFL in pressure rate. If they don’t send extra rushers, they get carved up as opposing quarterbacks lead the league in Yards-Per-Attempt against them in those circumstances. But here comes Burrow who punishes teams that blitz. While Burrow has a 107 Passer Rating when throwing in a clean pocket, that mark rises to a 108 Passer Rating when he is under pressure while ranking fourth in the NFL in YPA in those situations. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. The Bengals go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the second half of the season. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC. Dallas has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up win. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Giants — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they had a +2 net turnover margin. The Cowboys have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 11 of their last 15 games at home Over the Total including five of their last six games finished Over the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (143) and the Dallas Cowboys (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (143) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (144). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-8) has lost three games in a row after their 44-38 upset loss at home against Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (5-7) has won two games in a row after their 27-20 loss against the New York Giants as a 4-point favorite back on Thanksgiving to start Week 13.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati is better than their record — they have played eight games decided by one score but have only won one of those games. They have also played a brutal schedule with seven games against teams that would currently make the playoffs: Baltimore (twice), Pittsburgh, the LA Chargers, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Washington. The Bengals with quarterback Joe Burrow has been resilient after setbacks. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. If this team had simply split their eight games decided by one scoring possession, they would be in the heart of the AFC playoff race with a 7-5 record and Burrow would be in the MVP conversation. He has thrown 30 touchdown passes with just two interceptions. In his last four games, he has 15 touchdown passes and only two interceptions while averaging 336 passing Yards-Per-Game. Now he gets to face a Cowboys defense that ranks 28th in the league in Opponents Expected Points Added per play. Dallas has surrendered touchdowns in 30 of the 39 trips by their opponents into the Red Zone. The Bengals rank second in the NFL in Red Zone Touchdown Rate and fifth in Third Down Conversion Rate — so look for Cincinnati’s drives to not have to settle for field goals. Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer loves to blitz — and they lead the NFL in pressure rate. If they don’t send extra rushers, they get carved up as opposing quarterbacks lead the league in Yards-Per-Attempt against them in those circumstances. But here comes Burrow who punishes teams that blitz. While Burrow has a 107 Passer Rating when throwing in a clean pocket, that mark rises to a 108 Passer Rating when he is under pressure while ranking fourth in the NFL in YPA in those situations. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road in non-conference play. Dallas has a 2-2 record since Cooper Rush took over at quarterback for Dak Prescott — but he is a check-down Charlie. Of the 37 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks this season, he ranks 37th by averaging only 5.4 YPA. He also ranks 36th of those 37 QBs in EPA per dropback. In the Cowboys’ last 20 games on Monday Night Football with Prescott under center, they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of those games. Dallas has been a disaster when playing at home this season with a 1-5 record where they are getting outscored by -19.5 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -83.1 net Yards-Per-Game. They are only gaining 311.2 total YPG at home which is resulting in just 16.0 PPG — and their defense is surrendering 394.3 YPG and a whopping 34.5 PPG. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati is outscoring their home hosts by +3.0 PPG and outgaining these teams in yardage. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 road games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road when favored. Lastly, the Bengals have won and covered the point spread in an incredible 15 of their last 16 games on the road when favored by 3 to 7 seven points. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (143) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (142) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (141). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (11-1) has won two games in a row after their 19-17 win against Las Vegas as a 13.5-point favorite two Fridays ago on November 29th. Los Angeles (8-4) has won five of their last six games after their 17-13 upset victory at Atlanta as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: For just the second time in Andy Reid’s coaching career, his team has failed to cover the point spread in six straight games. In both those previous occasions, his team covered the point spread to snap that streak. His team has the extra couple of days off for this game after playing on Black Friday — and his teams are 51-39-1 ATS when playing on eight or more days of rest and preparation. Admittedly, Kansas City has been the king of winning but not covering larger point spreads with Patrick Mahomes their starting quarterback — they are 24-39-2 ATS in their 65 games as a favorite of more than a field goal in his career under center. But I suspect that trend is helping to give us some point spread value tonight. The Chiefs have won all six of their games at home this season with an average winning margin of +5.2 Points-Per-Game by holding their guests to just 18.8 PPG. This is the time of the season when Kansas City kicks things into another gear — and they have a 23-6 straight-up record at home from December through the rest of the season with Mahomes at QB. The Chiefs are also 27-19-1 ATS in their 47 games at night with Mahomes with three-point spread covers in four prime-time games this season. In his last five games this season, Mahomes is completing 68% of his passes and has posted a 100 Passer Rating. Things are trending upward for this offense. Running back Isiah Pacheco returned to action last week after missing much of the season due to injury. Kansas City is also inserting D.J. Humphries at left tackle tonight which should be a significant upgrade over second-year starter Wanya Morris who has struggled in that spot. Humphries is a former Pro Bowler with Arizona who the Chiefs signed in the off-season hoping that he could recover from the back injury that derailed his career with the Cardinals. He appears healthy. In his career 98 starts, he has only been called for 18 holding penalties. Even with their recent point spread covering problems lately, Kansas City has still covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Los Angeles has thrived off a soft schedule in the first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Their win against Denver represents their only victory against a team with a record over .500 — and they have lost three of their four games against teams that would currently make the playoffs.  They are getting outgained by -14.3 net Yards-Per-Game this season. The Chargers only gained 187 net yards last week against the Falcons — and they got outgunned by -163 net yards in that game. A +3 net turnover margin along with a 64-yard interception return from a Kirk Cousins pass helped overcome that yardage differential. In terms of post-game win expectancy, Los Angeles’ win last week was the luckiest victory for all teams in the last three NFL seasons. The Chargers are generating only 298.5 total YPG on the road — and they are banged up on that side of the ball. Running back J.K. Dobbins is on injured reserve and rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey is a game-time decision with shoulder and knee injuries. McConkey accounted for 117 of their 187 yards last week. This is a difficult travel spot for Los Angeles as well after accumulating frequent flier miles from LA to Atlanta back to LA and now Kansas City in the last week. The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games as a dog of up to seven points. Harbaugh’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 16 games in Weeks 14 through 17.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles wants to avenge a 17-10 loss at home against the Chiefs on September 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to avenge a loss at home. Harbaugh’s teams in his NFL coaching career are just 2-3 ATS in the five games attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (142) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (141) and the Kansas City Chiefs (142). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) has won five of their last six games after their 17-13 upset victory at Atlanta as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (11-1) has won two games in a row after their 19-17 win against Las Vegas as a 13.5-point favorite two Fridays ago on November 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers only gained 187 net yards last week against a Falcons defense that Sam Darnold just enjoyed a career day against this afternoon. They are generating only 298.5 total YPG on the road — and they are banged up on that side of the ball. Running back J.K. Dobbins is on injured reserve and rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey is a game-time decision with shoulder and knee injuries. McConkey accounted for 117 of their 187 yards last week. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders on the road after a victory in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. On the road, the Chargers are only giving up 13.2 Points-Per-Game — and head coach Jim Harbaugh’s game plan will most likely be to engage in a ball control offense that keeps Patrick Mahomes off the field. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Kansas City remains tough to move the ball on — they are holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 19.6 Points-Per-Game. The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They are holding their visitors to just 18.8 PPG — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West rivals — and they have played 5 straight Unders at home against divisional rivals. These lower-scoring games against familiar rivals have much to do with the game-planning and scheming of Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who is as good as it gets -- and he is even better when more familiar with the opposing team.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are avenging a 17-10 loss at home to the Chiefs back on September 29th — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge on their mind. 10* NFL Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (141) and the Kansas City Chiefs (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (117) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (118) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (9-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 17-14 upset loss at home against South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. SMU (11-1) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 38-6 win against California as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: There is an incorrect narrative regarding this game that there is public money on Clemson simply because of their brand name. The books initially made the Tigers the favorite in this game — the Circa Sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas which caters to sharp bettors and is happy to take big action made Clemson a field goal favorite in this game. It has been “sharp” money and the public that has prompted the books to move the line to where SMU is the favorite. I think the original assumptions that led to the Tigers being made the favorite are sound. The Mustangs have thrived on a weak strength of schedule that Jeff Sagarin ranks as the 63rd most difficult and that ESPN ranks as the 75th most difficult in the nation. Their best victories have been against who? Louisville? Pittsburgh. They lost to BYU. Their inaugural season in the ACC fetid a conference schedule that avoided Miami (FL), Clemson, Syracuse, and Georgia Tech. And while their athletic director gets into social media scuffles regarding the strength of their resume, the players and coaching staff are under enormous pressure that a loss in this game will not just cost them a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff but outside of the 12-team tournament all together (as playoff commissioner Wade Manuel confirmed as being very possible). This is a lot of pressure for any football team — especially one making their debut in a Power Five/Four conference. As it is, SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. All those past games were played since Rhett Lashlee took over as their head coach. The Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after holding their last opponent to 14 or fewer points. I suspect that the Clemson brand is pretty toxic right now amongst bettors given their three losses, the lack of recent playoff appearances, and head coach Dabo Swinney’s stubbornness to get active in the transfer portal. But this is a great rebound spot for his team that does not feel the same pressure as SMU after their loss last week to the Gamecocks — but the Tigers still make the playoffs by taking the ACC title with a win tonight. Clemson has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss in the last three seasons. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a two-game home stand. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home when playing on six days of rest between games. The Tigers still have a solid defense that ranks 30th in Opponent Expected Points Added Per Play Allowed — and they rank 20th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. This defense is an opportunistic unit whose 23 takeaways rank as the 12th most in the nation. They rank 21st in interception rate and rank in the top ten in Havoc Rate. The Clemson offense is showing signs of getting more explosive. Freshman wide receiver Bryant Wesco was targeted ten times last week — he is averaging a healthy 2.3 Yards-Per-Route-Run this season. Even in the loss to the Gamecocks they generated 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry and gained at least two first downs in six of their 12 drives. They enjoyed a Success Rate of 65% on their 54 standard downs last week. Quarterback Clint Klubnik has eight touchdown passes and only two interceptions since Week 11 — and he has gotten more aggressive in moving the ball with his legs. He ran ten times for 62 yards last week and scored two touchdowns. The Tigers have been tested in games against Georgia and South Carolina. Clemson has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games away from home either in true road games or on neutral fields. They have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games as an underdog this season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral field as an underdog of up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have a huge edge in coaching experience in big games with Swinney and his staff. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in December which are all either ACC Championship Games, bowl games, or playoff games. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (117) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (109) plus (or minus) the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (110) in the Big 12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 29-21 victory against Kansas State as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona State (10-2) has won five games in a row after their 49-7 victory at Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Iowa State has never won a Big 12 championship in the 110 years in the conference — but they have been in this position recently under head coach Matt Campbell who led them to the championship game in 2020. The Cyclones have scored 32.5 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. They rank ninth in the nation by going three-and-out on offense in only 18.9% of their possessions. Their defense ranks 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to 19.6 PPG. They rank second in the country by limiting opposing passers to completing just 52.0% of their passes. They also rank 22nd in the FBS by giving up only 5.2 Yards-Per-Dropback. The Iowa State defense gets two key contributors back for this contest as well. Safety Malik Verdon returns to action after missing last week’s game due to an injury. Middle linebacker Caleb Bacon also is healthy again after being out since Week One. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 12 games on the road against Big 12 rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home as an underdog. Arizona State overachieved preseason and point-spread expectations most of the season with their 10-2 ATS mark. Second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham did a masterful job improving the talent level of the roster in the transfer portal from last year’s 3-9 team. But there are plenty of red flags that their bubble is about to burst. The Sun Devils won six of their seven games decided by one scoring possession. They benefited from a +11 net turnover margin. They have covered the point spread in five straight games. They overachieved Bill Connelly’s SP+ scoring projections by +17.9 PPG in those five games. But now their top wide receiver, Jordyn Tyson, is out the season with an injury. Quarterback Sam Leavitt will miss his 75 catches, 1101 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. No other wide receiver has caught more than 17 passes this season — and Tyson is the only wideout with at least ten targets on third down. The Arizona State passing attack can already be a bit limited since 31% of their pass attempts are at or behind the line of scrimmage as opposed to the national average of 21%. The Sun Devils defense ranks just 86th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Their defense also ranks 117th in Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate Allowed. The Arizona State special teams unit ranks 131st in the nation according to Connelly’s SP+ rankings. And, finally, this is far from an ideal start time for the Sun Devils since their body clock will think it is 10 AM.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones thrive in the role of the underdog under Campbell as they are 36-23-3 ATS in their 62 games when getting the points in his tenure — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (109) plus (or minus) the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Tulane (9-3) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped in a 34-24 upset loss at home against Memphis as a 12.5-point favorite last Thursday. Army (10-1) rebounded from their loss against Notre Dame two weeks ago with a 29-24 win against UTSA as a 6-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Green Wave head coach Jon Sumrall knows how to prepare his teams to defend against the triple option offense. In his three games against service academy teams going back to his previous tenure as the head coach at Troy, his teams have given up only nine combined points with two shutout wins on the road. That mark includes a 35-0 victory at Navy three weeks ago in a game where they held the Midshipmen to only 100 rushing yards from 35 carries. Not only has his defense prepared for the triple option recently, but the coaching staff can use that experience to adjust for this contest. Army generates 312.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game — but Sumrall’s teams have played all 6 games Under the Total against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. Sumrall’s teams have also played 10 of their 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points — and they have played 4 of their 5 games on the road Under the Total when laying up to seven points. The Green Wave holds their opponents to 3.72 Yards-Per-Carry. They rank seventh in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 29th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They rank in the top 15 in Opponent Third Down Conversion Rate Allowed — and they lead in the nation in Opponent Fourth Down Conversion Rate Allowed after thwarting 16 of the 23 fourth down attempts by their opponents this season. Tulane is holding their opponents to just 304.7 total YPG which has resulted in just 18.4 Points-Per-Game. The Green Wave run the ball on offense as they have the 10th lowest pass rate in the FBS. Tulane has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Army ranks eighth in the nation by allowing only 15.1 PPG — and they are limiting their opponents to 295.5 YPG. The Black Knights have played 5 of their last 8 home games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival. And while the Green Wave averages 214.3 rushing YPG, Army has played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. They have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams who do not allow more than 310 YPG. Furthermore, the Black Knights have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their 18 games under head coach Jeff Monken against teams winning 75% or more of their games. And in their last 15 games in December, Army has played 10 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The weather will not be conducive to passing the football with the temperatures dropping into the 20s and winds at 9 miles per hour. As it is, Army scores 32.7 PPG — and Tulane has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG. The Green Wave averages 6.7 Yards-Per-Attempt and 430.7 YPG —  and the Black Knights have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average 425 or more YPG and 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who average 5.9 or more YPP. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (106) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (105) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Jacksonville State (8-4) had won eight games in a row after their 19-17 loss on the road against the Hilltoppers as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. Western Kentucky (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with that victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville State had already clinched the right to host the Conference USA Championship Game before last week’s game so they had nothing at stake. They got to run the base offense and keep things vanilla while saving all their tricks for this rematch. Head coach Rich Rodriguez certainly picked up a few things about the Hilltoppers defense that he could exploit — and rather than take advantage of that knowledge last week in key situations, all those plays remain uncorked for tonight’s game. Even given that, the Gamecocks generated 5.5 Yards-Per-Play which was more than Western Kentucky’s 5.1 YPP mark. Jacksonville State’s offense was only on the field for 23:23 minutes of that game which explains why they got outgained in raw yardage. The Gamecocks only converted 2 of their 13 third down attempts — and they failed to convert on five of their six attempts on third down with six yards or less to go. Look for Jacksonville State to be better on third down tonight — especially against this Hilltoppers defense that ranks 111th in Opponent Third Down Conversion Rate Allowed. The Gamecocks are a run-first offense that runs the ball on 66% of their snaps while playing at the seventh-fastest pace in the nation to wear down opposing defenses. This approach was effective last week as they generated 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry for 229 rushing yards. Western Kentucky allows 208.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game from 4.8 YPC — and they rank 115th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. Jacksonville State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home against teams who allow 200 or more rushing YPG. Gamecocks’ quarterback Tyler Huff is questionable tonight after leaving last week’s game with an ankle injury. I don’t know if Rodriguez was just cautious with him or if he really may not play tonight — he is a game-time decision. We have to assume he does not play (or his mobility is not 100%) and be pleasantly surprised if he can go and be effective. His backup is Logan Smothers who is a former blue-chip recruit who transferred in from Nebraska. He is in the second-year in this program and split time as the starting quarterback despite battling injuries and Rodriguez playing the hot hand. Smothers is not as dynamic a runner as Huff although he did rush for 32 yards with a touchdown on five carries last week — but he may offer more in the passing game. Rodriguez has plenty of running backs in his zone-read spread offensive attack. Jacksonville State generates 461.0 YPG when playing at home which is resulting in 37.0 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +14.2 PPG and outgaining them by +99.3 net YPG. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Western Kentucky had to win last week to get this opportunity to win the conference championship — so they had to deploy their best offensive and defensive looks. Running back Elijah Young ran the ball 19 times which was the third-highest mark for him all season and just the fifth time all year he ran the ball at least 15 times. Despite having their offense on the field for over 36 minutes, they still needed a 21-yard field goal to win the game with three seconds left. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp threw the ball 47 times for 301 yards but only averaged 6.4 Yards-Per-Completion. Now with a week to study that game tape along with the weather dropping into the 20s tonight in Jacksonville, Alabama, it will be more difficult for the Hilltoppers to move the ball in the air. As it is, Western Kentucky has struggled on offense lately as they have only generated 336.3 total YPG in their last three games for 15.7 PPG which is more than 50 YPG and 11.0 PPG below their season averages. On the road, the Hilltoppers are getting outscored by -3.8 PPG and getting outgained by -81.0 PPG. Their defense on the road is the problem as they are allowing their home hosts to gain 468.2 YPG which is resulting in 30.8 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Revenge is not a huge factor in these Conference Championship Games as teams looking to avenge a same-season loss are a flat 27-27 ATS since 2005 in those situations. But, it is telling that 36 of those 54 teams motivated by revenge improved their game score by +7.7 PPG in those contests. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season while the Hilltoppers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the second half of the season — and those trends suggests that Rodriguez and his staff do a better job with adjustments than Western Kentucky’s Tyson Helton and his staff. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (106) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (101) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (102). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-3) has won three games in a row and seven of their last eight contests after their 30-17 win against Miami as a 3.5-point favorite last Thursday. Detroit (11-1) has won ten games in a row after their 23-20 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay comes into this game with momentum having lost only once in their last eight games (albeit, to these Lions). The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And while Detroit averages 31.9 Points-Per-Game, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who score 24 or more PPG. The Lions have 17 players on Injured Reserve including 12 players on defense. In addition, three more defensive linemen in their two-deep rotation (including two starters) are out tonight: defensive tackle D.J. Reader, defensive end Josh Paschall, and defensive end Levi Onwuzurike. Overall, they are missing six of their opening-day starters on defense (but, to be fair, their acquisition of defensive end Za’Darius Smith last month adds a legitimate starter back into the mix). But even counting Smith as a legit opening-day starter over Marcus Davenport (on IR), the Lions only have two starters still from that opening front six (two linebackers with a nickel defensive back package as their base defense). The depth of this unit has been significantly hampered, requiring general manager Brad Holmes to raid the practice squads of other teams just to find bodies. And while defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has done a great job adjusting to the season-ending injury to Aidan Hutchinson, the injuries last week to those three defensive linemen out tonight along with linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez on top of the previous week's injury to linebacker Alex Anzalone just seems to much to overcome now. Glenn has been blitzing at the second-highest rate in the NFL since the Hutchinson injury — but that may no longer be effective with so many bench players now in starting roles. And while Jordan Love has not been as effective against man coverage which Glenn has schemed up 43% of the time (the highest in the NFL), that may be a luxury he can no longer afford. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home against fellow NFC North rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers gained 411 yards of offense against a healthier Lions defense despite being in difficult rainy conditions when they played last month on November 3rd in a 24-14 loss at Lambeau Field — and they outgained them by +150 net yards in that game. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (101) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-3) has won three games in a row and seven of their last eight contests after their 30-17 win against Miami as a 3.5-point favorite last Thursday. Detroit (11-1) has won ten games in a row after their 23-20 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The biggest storyline for this NFC North showdown is the injury situation. The Lions have 17 players on Injured Reserve including 12 players on defense. In addition, three more defensive linemen in their two-deep rotation (including two starters) are out tonight: defensive tackle D.J. Reader, defensive end Josh Paschall, and defensive end Levi Onwuzurike. Overall, they are missing six of their opening-day starters on defense (but, to be fair, their acquisition of defensive end Za’Darius Smith last month adds a legitimate starter back into the mix). But even counting Smith as a legit opening-day starter over Marcus Davenport (on IR), the Lions only have two starters still from that opening front six (two linebackers with a nickel defensive back package as their base defense). The depth of this unit has been significantly hampered, requiring general manager Brad Holmes to raid the practice squads of other teams just to find bodies. And while defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has done a great job adjusting to the season-ending injury to Aidan Hutchinson, the injuries last week to those three defensive linemen out tonight along with linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez on top of the previous week's injury to linebacker Alex Anzalone just seems to much to overcome now. Glenn has been blitzing at the second-highest rate in the NFL since the Hutchinson injury — but that may no longer be effective with so many bench players now in starting roles. And while Jordan Love has not been as effective against man coverage which Glenn has schemed up 43% of the time (the highest in the NFL), that may be a luxury he can no longer afford. I do expect the Lions to keep scoring. They lead the NFL in Points Per Drive and Pass Success Rate. They are fourth in Expected Points Added Per Play. Quarterback Jared Goff has a 121.7 Passer Rating in his last ten games — and he has always thrived when playing indoors. I expect this game to be a barn-burner between two good teams. Detroit has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total at home after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. The Lions have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. In their last 28 games at home, Detroit is scoring 32.3 Points-Per-Game — and those games generated 54.6 combined PPG. The Packers are scoring 26.5 PPG with an average winning margin of +6.5 PPG — and the Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who outscore their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Green Bay is missing two defensive starters with cornerback Jaire Alexander and middle linebacker Edgerrin Cooper out tonight with injuries. That hurts a defense that already ranks 19th on the road in Points Allowed Per Drive. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight road games over the Total after a win at home. They have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road against fellow NFC rivals Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers gained 411 yards of offense against a healthier Lions defense despite being in difficult rainy conditions when they played last month on November 3rd in a 24-14 loss at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging an earlier loss in the season — and the Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (483) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (484). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 24-19 upset victory at home against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 21st. Denver (7-5) has won two games in a row after their 29-19 win at Las Vegas as a 5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has the benefit of the mini-bye having played the Thursday game to begin Week 12 and now closing out Week 13 on Monday Night Football. They overcame a -2 net turnover margin against the Steelers — but the Browns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz should be able to disrupt Broncos quarterback Bo Nix tonight. Led by Myles Garrett, Cleveland leads the NFL with a Pressure Rate of 43% on the opposing team’s dropbacks -- and they also lead the league in Pass Rush Win Rate. Nix is tearing up opposing defenses when in a clean pocket — he has a Passer Rating over 100 in those situations. But when under pressure, his Passer Rating drops to 55.9. Furthermore, Nix has the third-lowest Passer Grade from Pro Football Focus when under pressure (minimum of 50 dropbacks). He has an adjusted completion percentage of 56.4% when facing pressure with just one Big-Time Throw and four Turnover-Worthy Plays. The Browns have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record under head coach Kevin Stefanski. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the second half of the season under Stefanski — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Denver got outgained in their win against the Raiders last week by -44 net yards. They only generated 5.1 Yards-Per-Play which was just below their season average of 5.2 YPP. The Broncos benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. Denver has been one of the surprises of the league — but they have feasted on a weak schedule with six of their seven wins coming against all four mediocre teams from the NFC South along with Las Vegas twice. Nix has only played against one defense ranked in the top ten using the Defensive DVOA rankings by the Football Outsiders. The Broncos have played the seventh-easiest cumulative offensive schedule according to DVOA. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog laying 3.5 to 9.5 points in the last three seasons. The Browns are only scoring 16.9 Points-Per-Game — and the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who are not scoring more than 17 PPG. Additionally, head coach Sean Payton has not enjoyed great success when his teams play at night. Payton’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their 16 games played at night — and his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their 14 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland quarterback Jameis Winston is just 13-28-1 ATS as a starting quarterback in games where his team is favored or an underdog of less than a field. But when he is the starter as an underdog getting more than a field goal, his teams are 21-10-1 ATS — and his teams are 13-5-1 ATS in his career when he is starting as an underdog getting more than five points. 20* NFL Cleveland-Denver ESPN Special with the Cleveland Browns (483) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (483) and the Denver Broncos (484). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 24-19 upset victory at home against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 21st. Denver (7-5) has won two games in a row after their 29-19 win at Las Vegas as a 5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is too low a number tonight in what will be fine weather. While the temperatures will drop into the 30s, the skies will be clear and the wind minimal at three miles per hour. Cleveland gave up 368  yards of offense against the Steelers last week which was 23 more yards than their season average. The Browns have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 straight Overs on the road after a straight-up win. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Cleveland has also played  8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Denver offense continues to trend upwards with Bo Nix making significant strides in his rookie season. Since Week Five, the Broncos rank 15th in the NFL with an Expected Points Added per play of 0.039 — and their EPA in the last two games is 0.167. They ranked sixth in EPA per dropback in November. In his last ten starts, Nix is completing 66.1% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and only two interceptions for a 99.2 Passer Rating. Nix is smashing the narrative that he was a product of a short passing game last year with Oregon as well. In his last five games on passes of 10 or more air yards, he has accumulated 716 passing yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions and a Passer Rating of 126.9. In his last three games, Nix has eight touchdown passes and no interceptions — and he has thrown for 580 yards in his last two contests. The Broncos have scored at least 28 points in four of their last six and five of their last eight games. Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when favored. The Browns are scoring only 16.9 Points-Per-Game but giving up 24.3 PPG. Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams giving up 24 or more PPG — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams who are not scoring more than 17 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Over the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. The Broncos have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in that range. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (483) and the Denver Broncos (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (481) and the Buffalo Bills (482). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-6) has lost three games in a row after their 38-10 loss at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (9-2) comes off their bye week on a six-game winning streak after their 30-21 win against Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This was a tricky one to handicap since my initial take was to lean to the Over since both these teams tend to play in higher-scoring games. But both the weather and injuries play a big role in assessing the over/under number for tonight’s game. It will be cold with the temperatures dropping into the mid-20s. There is a 77% chance of precipitation so some snow is likely — but snow often helps the offense since it impairs the ability of defenders to react to playmakers. Dan Marino was quoted as saying: “If it’s snowing, I’m throwing.” Wind can be a problem. The afternoon forecast for this evening projects winds at 11 miles per hour which is not too bad. But wind gusts of up to 29 MPH are also expected — and that is a problem. The biggest argument that convinced me to endorse the Under is the injury situation. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to play tonight — but I do not like what is going on with the mysterious shoulder injury that kept him out of last week’s game. He may not be close to 100%. The 49ers are also without two starting offensive linemen with left tackle Trent Williams and left guard Aaron Brooks out. The loss of Williams is devastating as he is the best left tackle in the world. In the two games Purdy played without Williams last season, he had two touchdown passes and four interceptions — and the Niners only scored 17 points in both games. Their offense has already been slowed down by the season-ending injury to wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Running back Christian McCaffrey is back after missing the first eight games of the season — but he does not appear to be at full strength as he is generating only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry and has yet to score a touchdown. The Niners are scoring only 16.7 Points-Per-Game since McCaffrey returned — and they have scored no more than 18 points in three of their last five games. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is dealing with several injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well, with the biggest loss being Nick Bosa. Given all this, I expect Shanahan to shorten this game by running the football and leaning heavily on McCaffrey to carry the offense. Shanahan has not found himself in a situation like this often — and the past results are telling. In his career as the head coach for San Francisco, there have been 23 games when the 49ers were on the road as an underdog getting up to seven points — and 16 of those games finished Under the Total. The 49ers have played 16 of their 24 games in the Shanahan era Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, in their 14 games after a loss by 14 or more points under Shanahan, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Buffalo is dealing with their own injuries on offense with tight end Dalton Kinkaid out for this game and wide receiver Keon Coleman questionable. Their defense may be bolstered with the return of linebacker Matt Milano who has yet to play this season — he is listed as questionable. The Bills have not allowed more than 21 points in five of their last six games. They are allowing only 286.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Buffalo has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. San Francisco is averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play and 384.8 total YPG this season. The Bills have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who generate 5.65 or more YPP — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: I expect the 49ers to rely on their ground game which generates 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry against a vulnerable Bills defense that surrenders 4.78 YPC. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total against teams who allow 4.5 or more YPC. Buffalo has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who generate 4.5 or more YPC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total against these teams. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (481) and the Buffalo Bills (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (481) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (482). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-6) has lost three games in a row after their 38-10 loss at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (9-2) comes off their bye week on a six-game winning streak after their 30-21 win against Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: This situation reminds me of the Sunday Night Football game three weeks ago when Detroit traveled to Houston and most of the betting public was on the Lions — and it also reminds me of the Monday Night Football game the next night when the betting public was all over the Los Angeles Rams at home against Miami. In both instances, the underdog covered the point spread to the dismay of the majority of bettors. The 49ers are ugly right now. Brock Purdy is playing through a shoulder injury and the team is riddled with injuries most notably left tackle Trent Williams and pass rusher Nick Bosa. But we bet numbers — not teams — and it is probably too much to ask for the Bills to win this game by more than six points. San Francisco still has plenty of good players — and they will be playing this game with desperation. The 49ers have not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their 9 games under head coach Kyle Shanahan after failing to cover the point spread in three games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their 23 games in the Shanahan era on the road as an underdog getting up to seven points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. Buffalo may come out flat after the extra week off to rejoice in their triumph against their white whale in the two-time Super Bowl champion Chiefs. As it is, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home after winning their previous game at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning three or more games in a row. The Bills are dealing with their own injuries on offense with tight end Dalton Kinkaid out for this game and wide receiver Keon Coleman questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home against teams from the NFC. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (481) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (406) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (405). THE SITUATION: LSU (7-4) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 24-17 win against Vanderbilt as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma (6-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-3 upset win at home against Alabama as a 14-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: LSU dominated the Commodores in yardage last week by generating 471 yards of offense and outgaining them by +163 net yards. Now with head coach Brian Kelly facing heavy scrutiny from the fan base from an underwhelming season, expect a big effort from his players on Senior Day. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home after a straight-up win in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after winning at home in their last game. Additionally, LSU has covered the point spread in 13 of their last games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games after the first month of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home when favored. Playing in the Death Valley is always tough — especially in night games. The Tigers are 5-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +8.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their guests by +103.2 net Yards-Per-Game. LSU generates 455.7 total YPG at home which results in 31.0 PPG. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is poised for a big game after completing 28 of 37 passes for 332 yards last week against Vanderbilt. He is averaging over 300 passing YPG with 23 touchdown passes. He faces a Sooners defense that ranks just 53rd in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Oklahoma ranks fourth in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — but that probably might just encourage the Tigers to not rely on their ground game that ranks last in the SEC by averaging only 117.6 rushing YPG. The Sooners only gained 325 yards last week against the Crimson Tide — but they dominated the time of possession by running the ball for 257 yards. Quarterback Jackson Arnold ran the ball 25 times himself for 131 yards — but he may now be fatigued this week after that effort. That game was the first time all season where he averaged more than 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Arnold only passed 11 times in that game for 68 passing yards. The Oklahoma offense is too one-dimensional with poor pass protection and injuries at the wide receiver position. The Sooners looked primed for an emotional letdown tonight — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a win against a conference opponent. They go back on the road where they are just 1-4 this season with an average losing margin of -11.0 PPG. They are only generating 278.5 total YPG away from home which is resulting in a mere 16.8 PPG. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road in November. Furthermore, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kelly’s teams throughout his coaching tenure are 28-11-3 ATS in 42 games played at home as an underdog or favorite of less than a touchdown. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the LSU Tigers (406) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (332) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (331). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (6-5) has lost two games in a row and three of their last four contests after their 27-16 loss to UNLV as a 7.5-point underdog last Friday. Stanford (3-8) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 24-21 loss at California as a 14.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: San Jose State has played the top two teams in the Mountain West Conference the last two weeks — and they held leads late in the third quarter before fading late against superior rosters. Against a Boise State team currently ranked fourth in the College Football Playoff, they held a 21-14 lead midway through the third quarter before giving up the final four touchdowns in that game. Last week, the Spartans rebounded to take a 16-13 lead late in the third quarter before the Rebels scored the final two touchdowns in that contest. Quarterback Walker Egget had an ugly boxscore with just four completions in 22 pass attempts for San Jose State — but the wet and sloppy conditions should get much of the blame for those rough numbers. Eggett has one of the best weapons in the nation with wide receiver Nick Nash. It has been a successful first season under former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo despite a challenging conference schedule. They are outscoring their opponents by +0.9 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +14.5 net Yards-Per-Game. At home, they are outscoring their opponents by +3.5 PPG and outgaining them by +35.7 net YPG. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to seven points — and Niumatalolo’s teams have covered the point spread in 15 of their 23 home games in his career when favored by up to seven points. The Spartans have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. Stanford blew a 21-7 lead in the third quarter last week and lost the game after the Golden Bears executed a 98-yard touchdown drive in the final two minutes. They got outgained by -112 net yards in that contest. Last year was destined to be a trying season for first-year head coach Troy Taylor taking over a decimated Cardinal program whose high academic standards made things very difficult in the new world of college football with the NIL and the transfer portal. Taylor inherited the fewest returning production of all Power Five programs. But the strides made this season have been disappointing. They only have two wins against FBS teams with their third victory being against Cal Poly Slo. They are getting outscored by -12.5 PPG and outgained by -93.1 net YPG. Returning starting quarterback Ashton Daniels is completing only 62% of his passes with only nine touchdown passes and nine interceptions. Last year’s defense suffered by ranking 129th in the nation by allowing 37.2 Points-Per-Game and 461.7 YPG — and despite 15 of the 20 players who logged in at least 200 snaps back for the second year under defensive coordinator Bobby April, they are still surrendering 412.3 total YPG which has resulted in 39.3 PPG. The Cardinal has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss to a conference opponent. On the road, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. Stanford only scores 19.2 PPG on the road — and their home hosts are generation 429.0 total YPG against them resulting in 39.2 PPG. The 412.3 passing YPG they are giving up is the eighth most in the FBS. They rank 110th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed with opposing quarterbacks completing 66% of their passes against them with 27 touchdown passes. The Cardinal offense has not rushed for at least 120 yards in seven of their games — and they have failed to pass for at least 200 yards in eight of their games. They convert on just 34% of their third downs. They rank 116th in Havoc Rate Allowed with their offensive line giving up 38 sacks and 95 tackles for loss. The Spartans rank 30th in Havoc Rate with 22 sacks and 77 tackles for loss. San Jose State ranks eighth in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 15th in Opposing Pass Success Rate Allowed on passing downs. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Motivation may be an issue for the Cardinal on the road against a Group of Five opponent in this lost season. The Spartans would love to knock off their FBS geographical rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Blowout Game of the Month with the San Jose State Spartans (332) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 38-10 victory against San Francisco last Sunday. Miami (5-6) has won three games in a row after their 34-15 win against New England as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Temperatures are expected in the 20s in Green Bay during the game with the wind chill dipping into the single digits. Winds will be around 15 miles per hour with gusts eclipsing 20 MPH. Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled in the cold in his career — he has lost all four of his starts when the temperature is below 40 degrees. He has completed only 54.5% of his passes in those four games with four touchdown passes and five interceptions — and he has a low 68.2 Passer Rating in those games. In the three games in cold weather where wind was also a factor, Miami only scored 39 combined points. They have won all three of their games since Tagovailoa returned from the concussion protocol — but they benefitted from playing three teams ranked in the bottom ten in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a win by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after finishing a two-game home stand. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points. Green Bay held the 49ers to just 241 total yards last week — and they enjoyed a  +3 net turnover margin. The Packers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have only given up 29 combined points in their last two contests. At home, the Packers are holding their guests to just 285.7 total YPG which is resulting in just 18.3 PPG. Green Bay ranks 10th in pass defense this season — and they have held their last five opponents to just 190 passing YPG. They also lead the NFL with 22 takeaways. The Packers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home in Weeks 10 through 13.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Green Bay Packers (310). THE SITUATION: Miami (5-6) has won three games in a row after their 34-15 win against New England as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (8-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 38-10 victory against San Francisco on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather will not be conducive for offensive firepower tonight. Temperatures are expected in the 20s in Green Bay during the game with the wind chill dipping into the single digits. Winds will be around 15 miles per hour with gusts eclipsing 20 MPH. With wind like that, the passing game and field goal attempts will be impacted. Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled in the cold in his career — he has lost all four of his starts when the temperature is below 40 degrees. He has completed only 54.5% of his passes in those four games with four touchdown passes and five interceptions — and he has a low 68.2 Passer Rating in those games. In the three games in cold weather where wind was also a factor, Miami only scored 39 combined points. While the weather is getting much of the headlines for tonight’s game, I think the defenses for both teams deserve more attention in this non-conference showdown. The Dolphins have not allowed more than 19 points in three straight games. They held the Patriots to just 269 total yards last week. While they rank 11th this season in Expected Points Added per play, they rise to fifth in that metric in the last three weeks. They rank fourth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 6.1 Yards-Per-Attempt this season. They have improved in stopping the run as well. They have held opposing rushers to 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry since Week Five. Overall, they are holding their opponents to 304.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 21.5 Points-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 19.0 PPG. Miami has played 4 of their 5 games on the road this season Under the Total. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an AFC East rival — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road after a game against a division rival. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Green Bay held the 49ers to just 241 total yards last week. They have only given up 29 combined points in their last two contests. At home, the Packers are holding their guests to just 285.7 total YPG which is resulting in just 18.3 PPG. Green Bay ranks 10th in pass defense this season — and they have held their last five opponents to just 190 passing YPG. They also lead the NFL with 22 takeaways. Don’t underestimate quarterback Jordan Love’s discomfort in the cold — he is not Brett Favre when it comes to thriving in these conditions. He has a 2-2 record straight-up in his four starts under 40 degrees. Love only completed 13 of 23 passes last week for 163 yards. He ranks 32nd in the league by completing only 61.8% of his passes — and he ranks 32nd in Passer Rating on third down. To compound matters, he will be without wide receiver Romeo Doubs tonight due to injury. Head coach Matt LaFleur has adapted to Love’s accuracy (and interception) issues by leaning on the run and embracing a ball-control offense. The Packers rank 30th in the NFL in pass-rate versus the league expectation — and they rank 29th in pace of play. Green Bay has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Thanksgiving night game has seen 11 of the last 17 games finish Under the Total by an average of 4.2 PPG — and in the last 11 Thanksgiving night games with the Total set at 43 or higher, 8 of these games finished Under the Total. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Green Bay Packers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (273) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-4) had won two games in a row before their 18-16 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (7-3) has won four games in a row after their 34-27 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore lost to their arch-rival last week despite holding them to just 303 total yards of offense and outgaining them by +26 net yards. The Ravens are resilient after a loss. With Lamar Jackson as their starting quarterback, they have won 16 of their last 20 games after losing with Jackson taking matters more into his own hands by averaging 12 carries per game and generating 65 rushing Yards-Per-Game with eight touchdowns. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss with Jackson as their starting quarterback — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games away from home after a loss with Jackson under center. They have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 29 games on the road after losing their previous game. Playing the physical Steelers is grueling — but the Ravens have won 25 of their last 32 games when favored in their next game after playing Pittsburgh. The Baltimore defense has not been as good this season — but they are improving. They rank 21st in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play allowed — and they rise to eighth in EPA allowed per play in the last three weeks. The Ravens already have 35 sacks this season coming from 14 different players. Baltimore is outstanding against the run as they rank second in opponent EPA per rush attempt allowed and second in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. Only 5.2% of their opponent’s rushes have gone for 10 or more yards which is the lowest mark in the league. The Ravens offense leads the NFL in EPA per play — and they rank in the top-five in Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate. Jackson will face a Chargers defense that usually operates Cover-4 pass defensive schemes that divide the defensive backfield into four quarters for zone coverage. He has a 116.9 Passer Rating against Cover-4 defenses. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when listed in that +/- 3-point range. The Ravens are probably not going to have the services of linebacker Roquan Smith who is dealing with a hamstring injury — but the Chargers are banged up as well with linebacker Denzel Perryman out and linebackers Khalil Mack and Bud Dupree and wide receiver Ladd McConkey all questionable. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Despite their record, they are only outgaining their opponents by +9.5 net Yards-Per-Game this season — and they are getting outgained by -12.0 net YPG when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have enjoyed an easy opening schedule — and they are just 1-3 against teams that began the week as a playoff team if the postseason started after Week 11. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Baltimore has beaten three of the five teams they have played that would have made the playoffs after Week 11. Los Angeles is outscoring their opponents by +7.5 Points-Per-Game — but the Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (273) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (273) and the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-4) had won two games in a row before their 18-16 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (7-3) has won four games in a row after their 34-27 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Baltimore has played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss against a fellow AFC North rival including in three of those last four circumstances. The Ravens offense leads the NFL in EPA per play — and they rank in the top-five in Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate. Jackson will face a Chargers defense that usually operates Cover-4 pass defensive schemes that divide the defensive backfield into four quarters for zone coverage. He has a 116.9 Passer Rating against Cover-4 defenses. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when favored. Additionally, the Ravens have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after the first month of the season. And in their last 8 games against teams from the AFC, they have played 6 of these games Over the Total. The Ravens are probably not going to have the services of linebacker Roquan Smith who is dealing with a hamstring injury — but the Chargers are banged up as well on defense with linebacker Denzel Perryman out and linebackers Khalil Mack and Bud Dupree both questionable. Los Angeles has won and covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 4 straight Overs after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also played 3 straight Overs after winning three or more games in a row. Furthermore, Jim Harbaugh’s teams as the head coach of San Francisco and now the Chargers have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a game where they scored 30 or more points. His NFL teams have also played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 home games played in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are averaging 7.3 Yards-Per-Attempt with quarterback Justin Herbert beginning to get the green light to air the ball out in his first season with Harbaugh — and the Ravens have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who generate 7.0 or more YPA in the passing game. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (273) and the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (272) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (272). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-2) has won six games in a row after their 26-18 victory against Washington as a 4.5-point favorite back on November 14th. Los Angeles (5-5) has won four of their last five games with their 28-22 victory at New England as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is simply a different team when quarterback Matthew Stafford has wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy and at his disposal. Their 4-1 winning run since October 20th began with a 20-15 victory against Las Vegas — and they got their two star wide receivers back the next week in a 30-20 win against Minnesota. They have scored 26 or more points in three of their four games since their return. While Sean McVay waited for the return of these two wide receivers early in the season, he saw steady improvement on the defensive side of the ball. Since Week Three, the Rams' defense ranks third in the NFL in opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed. They play better defense at home at SoFi Stadium where they are holding their guests to just 315.8 total YPG which is almost 35 YPG below their season average. While Los Angeles ranks 29th in the NFL by allowing 2.8 points per opponent drive, they improve to fifth in the league when playing at home as they hold their opponents to just 1.8 points per drive. The Rams also rank third in the NFL with a pressure rate on the quarterback in 38% of their opponent’s dropbacks — and this is an area where Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts is vulnerable. Hurts averages 9.7 YPA when throwing in a clean pocket — but that number drops to just 5.7 YPA when under pressure which ranks 25th in the NFL. And while the Eagles' offensive line has the reputation of still being an elite unit without their now-retired center Jason Kelce, they are allowing Hurts to be pressured in 42% of his dropbacks. The Philly offense has been elevated with the acquisition of running back Saquon Barkley. They average 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry as a team which is generating a league-leading 174.3 rushing YPG. But the Rams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams averaging 4.5 YPC — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams who generate 130 rushing YPG. Philadelphia will be without wide receiver DeVonta Smith — and his absence will make it easier for the Rams to put a blanket on wide receiver A.J. Brown. The Eagles have covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row.  And while Los Angeles allows 350.1 total YPG, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams who allow 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home in the second half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Los Angeles Rams (272) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (272) and the Los Angeles Rams (272). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-2) has won six games in a row after their 26-18 victory against Washington as a 4.5-point favorite back on November 14th. Los Angeles (5-5) has won four of their last five games with their 28-22 victory at New England as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles held the Commanders to just 264 yards of offense last week. They lead the NFL by holding their opponents to just 273.1 total Yards-Per-Game. It often takes some time for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to get his units up to speed in his first year with a new group — but the young but talented Philly defense is learning quickly. Since their bye week in Week Six, they lead the NFL by allowing only 13.8 Points-Per-Game — and they also lead the league by giving up just 211.3 total YPG. The Eagles lead the league by holding their opponents to just 5.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game during that span. They have also surrendered the fewest explosive plays of both 10 or more and 20 or more yards. Their defense also ranks eighth in pass-rush win rate according to ESPN’s numbers — and Los Angeles is still dealing with injuries on their offensive line. Now coming off extra time since playing the Thursday game last week, Fangio should have his defense rested and ready for the Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford offense. On the road, Philadelphia has held their home hosts to just 270.5 total YPG which has resulted in only 16.7 Points-Per-Game. The Eagles have played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Los Angeles is another team that has steadily improved on the defensive side of the ball. Since Week Three, the Rams' defense ranks third in the NFL in opponent Expected Points Added per play allowed. They play better defense at home at SoFi Stadium where they are holding their guests to just 315.8 total YPG which is almost 35 YPG below their season average. While Los Angeles ranks 29th in the NFL by allowing 2.8 points per opponent drive, they improve to fifth in the league when playing at home as they hold their opponents to just 1.8 points per drive. The Rams also rank third in the NFL with a pressure rate on the quarterback in 38% of their opponent’s dropbacks — and this is an area where Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts is vulnerable. Hurts averages 9.7 YPA when throwing in a clean pocket — but that number drops to just 5.7 YPA when under pressure which ranks 25th in the NFL. And while the Eagles' offensive line has the reputation of still being an elite unit without their now-retired center Jason Kelce, they are allowing Hurts to be pressured in 42% of his dropbacks. The Philly offense has been elevated with the acquisition of running back Saquon Barkley. They average 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry as a team which is generating a league-leading 174.3 rushing YPG. But the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total against teams who average 4.5 or more YPC — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG.  

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Rams have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (272) and the Los Angeles Rams (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (252) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (251). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (5-6) ended their three-game losing streak with their 28-27 upset win at New York against the Jets as a 4-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (9-1) has won eight straight games after their 52-6 win against Jacksonville as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: I’m not always in love with getting in front of these explosive locomotives like what the Lions are right now even when the “right side” is going against them (and, frankly, after watching Army get outclassed against Notre Dame last night, my appetite is even less for taking significant underdogs this morning). But it remains true that in games in November and beyond in the NFL involving teams with a winning percentage of .900 or more who are scoring at least 33.0 Points-Per-Game (Detroit: 33.4 PPG), these teams are just 12-25-3 ATS in those last 40 games — and they are only 4-16-1 ATS if coming off a double-digit victory. Then I consider that four of the Lions wins have been by six points or less — so it’s not as if they are steamrolling everyone. And while Detroit has a 5-0 record on the road, their two wins of more than a touchdown were at the hapless Dallas Cowboys when they rang up the score and then at Green Bay when they won by ten points in the rain. By the way, the Packers outgained them by -150 net yards in that game. The Lions have been outgained in yardage in four of their victories this season. Tennessee outgained them by -191 net yards but their -4 net turnover margin dictated the game script. To be fair, Detroit took their foot off the accelerator in that game. But that was not the case in their Monday Night Football victory against Seattle in the fourth game of the season when they got outgained by -127 net yards. The Los Angeles Rams outgained them in their opener by -24 net yards. And in their three-point win at Minnesota, they only won the yardage battle by +8 net yards. The last time the Lions were on the road, Jared Goff threw five interceptions. Indianapolis has seen four of their six losses decided by six points or less. Six of their games have been decided by a field goal or less. They return home having played three of their last four games on the road. Second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson comes off his best game as a pro last week after completing 20 of 30 passes for 272 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He added 32 rushing yards from ten carries with two touchdowns on the ground. Head coach Shane Steichen seemed to loosen up his willingness to let Richardson run with perhaps the stakes changed after benching him earlier in the season. If the directive was to protect their blue-chip QB earlier in the season, with his accuracy troubles now putting his future in doubt, the onus now seems to evaluate how high his ceiling can be. Richardson may have gained a new perspective from the benching. The Lions have struggled against mobile quarterbacks. The Colts have covered the point spread in 5 straight games with Richardson as their starting quarterback — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games as an underdog with Richardson under center. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Weeks 10 through 13.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Getting a touchdown or more for a solid home underdog is too good an opportunity to pass up. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Indianapolis Colts (252) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (194) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (193). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (7-3) has lost two games in a row after their 24-14 upset loss at home against Arizona State as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (5-5) has lost three games in a row after their 34-17 loss at Iowa State as a 7-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas State outgained the Sun Devils last week by +14 net yards but could not overcome a -2 net turnover margin. They return home for Senior Day — and they still have an outside shot at making the Big 12 Championship Game after Colorado and BYU lost this afternoon. As it is, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering an upset loss. They are still outscoring their guests by +15.6 Points-Per-Game when playing at home by holding these visitors to just 16.8 PPG. Led by quarterback Avery Johnson, they are generating 458.4 total YPG at home which is resulting in 31.4 PPG. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games when favored. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss to conference rivals. The Bearcats rank 42nd in the nation by averaging 182.2 rushing YPG — but now they face a Wildcats defense that ranks second in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 13th in the FBS in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. Cincinnati is getting outgained on the road by -19.0 net YPG and outscored by -2.8 PPG. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas State Wildcats (194) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (193). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army West Point Black Knights (221) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (222). THE SITUATION: Army (9-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 14-3 victory at North Texas as a 6.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 9th. Notre Dame (9-1) has won eight straight games after their 35-14 win against Virginia as a 21-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a very dangerous game for the Fighting Irish. With an upset loss already on their resume against Northern Illinois, a second upset loss tonight could very well ruin their playoff aspirations. They are currently ranked eighth in the playoff rankings — but they do not have a victory against a team in the 12-team field. Their most impressive victory was their opening game win at Texas A&M. Their next best wins were against who, Georgia Tech? Louisville? They did crush Navy a month ago — but they also benefited from six takeaways that completely took the Midshipmen out of their preferred game script. Notre Dame enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week in their win against the Cavaliers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Irish have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games away from home in November. I don’t love it when teams play a service academy team without the benefit of an extra bye week to prepare for their unique spread option attacks. Certainly, it helps that they already prepared for and then played Navy — but Army head coach Jeff Monken will study that game tape to tweak and adjust his offensive schemes with his specific flexbone attack for this game. The Black Knights run five core plays — zone dive, follow, midline triple option, rocket and kick — and while opponents know what is coming, Monken is able to use misdirection and varying blocking concepts to throw these opposing defenses off. There is a reason that Army has covered the points spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. The Black Knights lead the nation in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards — so their prowess with their ground game is not simply that they run the ball a majority of the time to rack up big yardage numbers. Running back Kanye Udoh generates +3.4 yards after the first contact this season. Quarterback Bryson Daily missed the Air Force game to an undisclosed injury — but he is back and should be back to full strength coming off the bye week. He is effective with play-action passes. While Army is unbeaten, I think all the pressure is on the Fighting Irish. The Black Knights are not in the current playoff bracket given their underwhelming strength of schedule — but pulling off the upset tonight may be exactly what they need to elevate into the top-12. Army has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They rank 25th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and the Irish are just 91st in Pass Success Rate on Passing Downs. And while Notre Dame leads the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed, that elite skillset is neutralized by a run-heavy team like the Black Knights. The Fighting Irish are giving up only 11.4 Points-Per-Game — but Army has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not allowing more than 17 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games away from home after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games away from home as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field. The Black Knights slow the game down by averaging more than 33 seconds per play which limits their opponent’s possessions — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field with the Total set from 42.5-49.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame does not play at a fast pace either — and that makes all these points with the underdog even more valuable. Service Academies are 44-26-2 ATS in their last 72 games as an underdog of +14.5 or more points. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Army West Point Black Knights (221) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (111) and the Cleveland Browns (112). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (8-2) has won five games in a row after their 18-16 upset win as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (2-8) has lost two games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 35-14 upset loss at New Orleans on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I know it is ugly to invest in the Under when the number drops into the 30s — but that is kind of the point. The public likes to bet the Over as it is — and banking on the Over looks even easier when the number is this low. Keep in mind, since 2020 the Under is 35-15-1 in NFL games when the Total is set no higher than 37. Now I am not a zombie to empirical trends like this. For me, it is a starting point rather than an ending point. When then considering the weather forecast tonight, the case strengthens for expecting a very low-scoring game. There is a 90% chance for precipitation with the temperature dropping into the 30s — so even snow is a possibility. These conditions likely mean conservative game plans from both teams. For the Steelers, that means plenty of running the football and not asking Russell Wilson to do too much and risk turning the ball over. As it is, this has been the approach with Wilson under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Pittsburgh is passing the ball 7% below baseline NFL expectations given the down-and-distance situation — and they are passing the ball 11% less on first down relative to NFL expectations. Wilson has been successful with his moonball deep passes to wide receiver George Pickens — but there are a few reasons to suspect this connection will be stymied tonight. The weather will make it more difficult to complete long bombs. Pickens will also likely struggle against Cleveland cornerback Denzel Ward who ranks second of 117 qualifying cornerbacks by holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 44% completion percentage when he is targeted. The Steelers are scoring more since Wilson replaced Justin Fields at quarterback — but the offense has not been efficient. Pittsburgh ranks just 20th in the league in Expected Points Added per play with Wilson with the offense too often simply boom-or-bust with his moon shots. They rank outside the top-15 in both EPA per pass attempt and EPA per rushing attempt — so even the notion that Wilson’s play-action game has unlocked running back Najee Harris is disputed by the deeper analytics. Furthermore, Wilson has not been effective in the Red Zone — he has completed only 29% of his passes inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Not only is that his lowest completion percentage in the Red Zone in his career, but it is almost 20% lower than his number last year in Denver which was one of the reasons that Sean Payton concluded that it would be better to pay him $50 million to play elsewhere. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road after an upset victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Ravens — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored. Cleveland has only scored 28 combined points in their last two games. While the offense has been better since Jameis Winston took over for Deshaun Watson who suffered a season-ending injury, the former Florida State and Tampa Bay quarterback has not fared well when playing in cold weather. In his five career starts when the weather was below 50 degrees, his teams have scored only 15.3 Points-Per-Game and never more than 20 points. Now Winston faces a Steel Curtain defense that is holding their home hosts to just 279.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.6 Points-Per-Game. The Browns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders at home as an underdog getting up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Even with the low-number, the evidence leads the Under tonight — especially since either one of these teams could struggle to reach double-digits. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 home games against fellow AFC North rivals — and the Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (111) and the Cleveland Browns (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (112) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (111). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-8) has lost two games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 35-14 upset loss at New Orleans on Sunday. Pittsburgh (8-2) has won five games in a row after their 18-16 upset win as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: We were on Cleveland against the Saints — and despite them generating 443 yards in that game and enjoying a +2 net turnover margin, they still gave that game away. Now they get to play the role of the spoiler against a hated divisional rival. The Browns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. Cleveland’s offense has been better with Jameis Winston at quarterback since he replaced Deshaun Watson after his season-ending injury. After Watson ranked 35th of 36 qualifying quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per play, Winston ranks 15th in that category. Certainly, some of his success comes from a healthier offensive line with Jack Conklin and Wyatt Teller back from injury. Cleveland ranks sixth in pressure rate allowed since Winston took over after ranking 28th in pressure rate allowed for Watson. The Browns have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games at home against AFC North rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 home games at night. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in four or more games in a row. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 45 road games when favored after a straight-up win. Quarterback Russell Wilson has been successful with his moonball deep passes to wide receiver George Pickens — but there are a few reasons to suspect this connection will be stymied tonight. The weather will make it more difficult to complete long bombs. Pickens will also likely struggle against Cleveland cornerback Denzel Ward who ranks second of 117 qualifying cornerbacks by holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 44% completion percentage when he is targeted. The Steelers are scoring more since Wilson replaced Justin Fields at quarterback — but the offense has not been efficient. Pittsburgh ranks just 20th in the league in Expected Points Added per play with Wilson with the offense too often simply boom-or-bust with his moon shots. They rank outside the top-15 in both EPA per pass attempt and EPA per rushing attempt — so even the notion that Wilson’s play-action game has unlocked running back Najee Harris is disputed by the deeper analytics. Furthermore, Wilson has not been effective in the Red Zone — he has completed only 29% of his passes inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Not only is that his lowest completion percentage in the Red Zone in his career, but it is almost 20% lower than his number last year in Denver which was one of the reasons that Sean Payton concluded that it would be better to pay him $50 million to play elsewhere. Since leaving Seattle, Wilson’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their 25 games played at night when he is their starting quarterback. The Steelers will also be without pass rusher Alex Highsmith.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 46 road games as a road favorite laying more than three points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against AFC North rivals when playing on a Thursday. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (112) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (111). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (476) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (475). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-6) has lost four games in a row after their 34-6 loss at home to Philadelphia as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Houston (6-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 26-23 loss at home to Detroit as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Well, Dallas is a terrible team who are getting outscored by -23.5 Points-Per-Game when playing at home this season — but this is a good time to offer the periodic reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. No one feels great about investing in this Cowboys team tonight. But NFL teams off losses by 28 or more points (who no one wanted to bet on either) who are now underdogs by seven or more points have covered the point spread in 72 of those last 127 situations — and these ugly dogs getting a touchdown or more have covered the point spread in 14 of these last 21 situations. So, how can it happen? This Dallas team is playing for pride — and they are not going to quit on head coach Mike McCarthy on national television. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb expects to play tonight through his bad back. The defense is getting healthier with Micah Parsons back from injury. Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games as an underdog with Cooper Rush as their starting quarterback. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams from the AFC. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Houston is a vulnerable road favorite even with the expectation that wide receiver Nico Collins will return tonight. The Texans have allowed 20 or more points in eight straight games despite ranking second in the NFL in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They are allowing 25.4 Points-Per-Game on the road. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is a different quarterback when playing away from NRG Stadium. At home in his career, Stroud has completed 66.3% of his passes and averages 290.6 passing Yards-Per-Game and 7.9 Yards-Per-Attempt while posting a 94.3 Quarterback Rating. But on the road in his career, Stroud completes only 58.6% of his passes and averages 183.6 passing YPG and 6.3 YPA while posting an 82.5 QBR. With Stroud at quarterback, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored by more than three points with Stroud under center. Houston’s offensive line is struggling to protect their start sophomore quarterback. He has been sacked 18 times in their last four games — and he has faced a pressure rate of at least 40% of his dropbacks in all four of those games. Additionally, the Texans are just 13-30-1 ATS in their last 43 games played at night — and they have lost 37 of their last 51 games when they are playing in prime-time again after losing in prime-time in their previous game. The Cowboys are getting outscored by -9.1 PPG — but Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams getting outscored by -6.0 or PPG. The Texans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Teams that played the Lions in the previous week have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when playing in the following week — and these teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those 6 games in the following week this season. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Dallas Cowboys (476) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 26-23 loss at home to Detroit as a 4-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (3-6) has lost four games in a row after their 34-6 loss at home to Philadelphia as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback C.J. Stroud is a different quarterback when playing away from NRG Stadium. At home in his career, Stroud has completed 66.3% of his passes and averages 290.6 passing Yards-Per-Game and 7.9 Yards-Per-Attempt while posting a 94.3 Quarterback Rating. But on the road in his career, Stroud completes only 58.6% of his passes and averages 183.6 passing YPG and 6.3 YPA while posting an 82.5 QBR. Houston’s offensive line is struggling to protect their start sophomore quarterback. He has been sacked 18 times in their last four games — and he has faced a pressure rate of at least 40% of his dropbacks in all four of those games. Even with Nico Collins returning to action tonight, don’t expect the Texans’ offense to explode tonight. As it is, Houston has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin last week after the Lions’ Jared Goff threw five interceptions — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total in non-conference play. Dallas got humiliated last week — and with Dak Prescott out the season, there is probably not much they can do on the offensive side of the ball against this Texans team that ranks second in the NFL in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. Houston holds their home hosts to just 287.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Even with Prescott playing all but one of their games at home, the Cowboys are generating only 290.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 Points-Per-Game. But the Cowboys are getting healthier on defense headlined by Micah Parsons' return last week. Dallas has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 14 or fewer points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games — and Houston has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (471) and the Los Angeles Chargers (472). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 35-31 loss at Baltimore as a 6-point underdog back on November 7th. Los Angeles (6-3) has won three games in a row after their 27-17 win against Tennessee as an 8-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s preferred grinding style of play that emphasizes the Chargers rushing attack usually dictates the tone of the game. Their games are averaging just 33.8 combined points scored per game — and the 44 combined points scored last week was their highest combined point total of the season. They rank just 20th in the league in Big Plays. The commitment to run the football has helped keep their talented defense fresh — and first-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter continues to be outstanding coaching up the defense after serving in the same capacity for Harbaugh the previous two seasons at Michigan. The Chargers lead the NFL by allowing only 13.1 Points-Per-Game — and they also lead the league by giving up only three rushing touchdowns. This defense ranks third in the league in the following categories: 3.4 Sacks-Per-Game; Adjusted Net Passing Yards Allowed; Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage. They rank fifth in Opponent 3rd Down Conversion Rate. They rank sixth by holding their opponents to just 302.1 total YPG. Nick Bosa’s name was removed from the injury report this week — and while Khalil Mack is listed as questionable, he has declared that he expects to play. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win at home. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45 or higher. They stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to an AFC North rival — and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing their last game on a Thursday. The Bengals' defense has been playing better lately as they had held four straight opponents to 314.8 YPG before their rematch with the Ravens last week. Trey Hendrickson is expected to play tonight despite dealing with a neck injury. Don’t be surprised if they slow down the Chargers’ ground game since they rank sixth in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when playing on field turf — and they have played 10 of their last 16 road games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. The Chargers are outscoring their opponents by +7.6 PPG — and the Bengals have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. Los Angeles allows their opponents to generate 4.7 YPC — and Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who give up 4.5 or more YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are scoring 27.0 PPG and giving up 26.2 PPG — and the Chargers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who allow 24 or more PPG. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (471) and the Los Angeles Chargers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (471) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (472). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 35-31 loss at Baltimore as a 6-point underdog back on November 7th. Los Angeles (6-3) has won three games in a row after their 27-17 win against Tennessee as an 8-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINT(S): Cincinnati lost on the road against the Ravens despite generating 477 yards of offense and outgaining them by +71 net yards. The Bengals remain very much alive in the AFC playoff race — and they have bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games this season after losing their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Wide receiver Tee Higgins returns for tonight’s game to give Joe Burrow another dynamic target alongside Ja’Marr Chase. Three of Cincinnati’s four wins this season have been with Higgins healthy and on the field. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 19 of their 29 games as an underdog with Burrow their starting quarterback including 14 of their 20 games as a road dog. They are also 18-7-1 ATS in their 26 games after a loss with Burrow under center including 16 of their 22 losses before December. Furthermore, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in all 5 of their games on the road. The Bengals' defense has been playing better lately as they had held four straight opponents to 314.8 YPG before their rematch with the Ravens last week. Trey Hendrickson is expected to play tonight despite dealing with a neck injury. Don’t be surprised if they slow down the Chargers’ ground game since they rank sixth in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home after a straight-up win. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to seven points. They are only generating 306.8 total YPG at home which is resulting in only 21.3 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (471) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (453) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New Orleans Saints (454). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-7) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-10 loss at home against the Los Angeles Chargers two Sundays ago on November 3rd. New Orleans (3-7) snapped a seven-game losing streak after their 20-17 upset win at home against Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINT(S): It has been a lost season for Cleveland with things not working out with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. After his season-ending injury a few weeks ago, Jameis Winston jumpstarted the offense by throwing for 321 yards in the Browns’ 29-24 upset win against Baltimore. But it was the bad Winston who showed up after that victory two weeks ago as he threw three interceptions in the loss to the Chargers. Cleveland has been resilient under head coach Kevin Stefanski as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road after a loss at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Browns hit the road again — and they have covered the point spread after playing two more games in a row at home. And while they had a -3 net turnover margin against the Chargers, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last contest. While the playoffs are probably out of the equation for Stefanski, this game is the opportunity to demonstrate what his team can do when getting better play at quarterback. The team also benefits from a clean injury report (outside of injured reserve) which is extremely rare this time of the season. With the offensive line at full health again, this could be a breakout game for running back Nick Chubb against a Saints’ run defense that allows opposing rushers to generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry and ranks second-to-last in the league by allowing 141.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season. New Orleans got the interim head coach bounce last week after Dennis Allen was fired. Special teams coach Darren Rizzi gave the team new energy last week in their upset win against the Falcons — but Atlanta kicker Younghoe Koo’s three missed field goals certainly helped. The Saints got outgained by -103 net yards in that game while surrendering 468 yards of offense. The interim head coach bounce is usually short-lived. New Orleans is getting outgained by -123.4 net YPG when playing at home with their defense giving up 420.8 total YPG — and they have now traded away start cornerback Marshawn Lattimore. The team is hit hard by injuries, especially at wide receiver with Chris Olave and Rashid Sheehan out. Quarterback Derek Carr struggles under pressure — and now he faces Myles Garrett and this Browns defense that ranks in the top-five in pressure rate this season. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win. They have not enjoyed a home-field advantage for some time now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 56 games at home. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. Additionally, Carr’s teams are 29-41-1 ATS after a straight-up win — and his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their 37 games after an upset win.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in non-conference play — and the Browns have covered the point spread in 15 of their 23 games against NFC teams under Stefanski. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (453) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New Orleans Saints (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (363) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (364). THE SITUATION: Kansas (2-6) has won two of their last three games after their 45-36 upset victory as a 2-point underdog last Saturday. BYU (9-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 22-21 victory at Utah as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas generated 532 yards against the Cyclones last week and outgained them by +71 net yards. They are playing much better over their last three games as they seem to have clearly benefited from their bye week that preceded this run. Quarterback Jalon Daniels is playing much better after some inconsistent play early on when he might have been less than 100% health-wise. He completed 12 of 24 passes for 295 yards with two touchdown passes last week — and he added 68 rushing yards with another touchdown with his legs. The Jayhawks should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after scoring 31 or more points in their last game. They have played six straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after playing three or more Overs in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road in the second half of the season. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog. BYU’s good fortunes continued last week as they survived a potential game-ending sack with a defensive holding penalty on fourth down which kept their final drive alive. We were on the Utes last week so fortunately they still covered the field goal point spread. The Cougars got outgained by -80 net yards but benefited from a +3 net turnover margin. But BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Cougars have been fortunate to not lose a game this season. They beat Oklahoma State on a last-second game-winning touchdown against an injury-riddled Cowboys. Their victory against Kansas State was fluky as they scored 38 points from non-offensive touchdowns that helped them overcome only gaining 241 yards in that game. They have won all four of their games decided by one scoring possession — and they have benefited from a now +10 net turnover margin. These are all areas where the Regression Gods eventually appear to even things out. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. And while the Cougars are outscoring their opponents by +13.9 net Points-Per-Game, Kansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 PPG. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Kansas Jayhawks (363) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (364). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Old Dominion Monarchs (332) plus the points versus the James Madison Dukes (331). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (4-5) had won three games in a row before a 28-20 upset loss at Appalachian State as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 2nd. James Madison (7-2) has won two games in a row with their 38-7 win against Georgia State as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MONARCHS PLUS THE POINTS: Old Dominion outgained the Mountaineers two weeks ago by +102 net yards after generating 498 yards against them. A -3 net turnover margin was too much to overcome. The result was the Monarchs’ fourth loss by one scoring possession this season including an impressive four-point loss at South Carolina in August to open their season. With an extra week to prepare, they should be ready to pull the upset this afternoon. Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after enduring a net turnover margin of -2 or worse in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games coming off their bye week. The Monarchs have been much more explosive on offense since dual-threat quarterback Colton Joseph took over under center in October. He completed 27 of 38 passes for 332 yards with two touchdown passes (and an interception) against Appalachian State — and he added an additional 42 rushing yards. Old Dominion is generating 378.1 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 25.4. Points-Per-Game this season — but in their last five games since Joseph took over as the starter, they are averaging 437.0 total YPG which is producing 29.8 PPG. The Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog getting up to seven points. James Madison has registered two straight wins against two bad teams in Southern Mississippi and Georgia State in their last two games. They caught the Panthers last week at the tail end of a rare four-game road swing which was pretty fortunate. This team has been catching breaks all season as they lead the nation with a +18 net turnover margin. Averaging a +2 net turnover margin per game is simply not sustainable — so I am expecting the Regression Gods to make their presence known sooner rather than later. As it is, the Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Quarterback Alonza Barrett has 21 touchdown passes and only three interceptions this season — but most of that production came earlier in the season when he registered 11 Big-Time throws and only three turnover-worthy plays in his first four games. In his last five games against Sun Belt opponents, Barrett has only six Big-Time throws with six turnover-worthy plays. The Dukes rank just 91st in Pass Success Rate so they may hope to get most of their yards on the ground — but Old Dominion ranks 23rd in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. James Madison has only scored 33 combined points in their two conference games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Dukes are outscoring their opponents by +18.9 PPG — but the Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. Under head coach Ricky Rahne, the Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 22 of their 34 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their 21 games as an underdog in Sun Belt Conference play with ten outright upset victories. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Year with the Old Dominion Monarchs (332) plus the points versus the James Madison Dukes (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (313) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-3) had won three games in a row before their 28-27 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-2) has won five games in a row after their 34-6 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: But perhaps what is underrated about this Commanders team is the continued development of their defense under head coach Dan Quinn. Washington held the Steelers to just 312 yards last week — and Pittsburgh averaged only 4.2 Yards-Per-Play and 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Quinn coaches his defense against two Eagles players he became very familiar with in his time as the defensive coordinator for Dallas. In his five games against quarterback Jalen Hurts, Quinn’s Cowboys sacked him 18 times, intercepted five of his passes, and held him to nine touchdown passes. In his six games against running back Saquon Barkley when he was playing for the New York Giants, Quinn’s defense held him to only two rushing touchdowns from 86 carries. Washington has held five of their opponents to no more than 18 points. Led by Dante Fowler, Jr. who played for Quinn in Atlanta and Dallas as well, the Commanders are doing a great job pressuring the quarterback. Washington has a pressure rate of 40% of their opponent’s drop backs — and they rank fourth in pass rush win rate. Hurts thrives in a clean pocket where he has a Passer Rating of 114.5 while completing 79% of his passes — but when pressured, Hurts' Passer Rating drops to an 80.3 mark and he is completing only 52% of his passes. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points. Hurts has been putting up great numbers lately — but he has benefited from an easy schedule as his last four opponents rank 26th or lower in Defensive DVOA. In their first five games against defenses ranking in the 18th to 23rd range as of now in Defensive DVOA, the Eagles only scored 17 PPG. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games after winning their last game. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games under head coach Nick Sirianni. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Commanders (313) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-3) had won three games in a row before their 28-27 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-2) has won five games in a row after their 34-6 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders only gained 242 yards of offense last week with rookie phenom Jayden Daniels only completing 17 of 34 passes for just 202 yards. He gained just five yards on the ground on three carries and no scrambles. One dynamic I have been on alert for is how this Washington offense under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury would continue to develop in the second half of the season. Kingsbury earned the reputation as the head coach in Arizona as someone who did not continue to innovate and adapt in the second half of the season. Defensive head coaches catchup to his concepts — and his Cardinals’ teams saw a reduction in offensive production in the second half of the season. Daniels is only averaging 195.5 passing Yards-Per-Game in his last two games — and he has thrown for no more than 219 yards in six of his nine starts. But perhaps what is underrated about this Commanders team is the continued development of their defense under head coach Dan Quinn. Washington held the Steelers to just 312 yards last week — and Pittsburgh averaged only 4.2 Yards-Per-Play and 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Quinn coaches his defense against two Eagles players he became very familiar with in his time as the defensive coordinator for Dallas. In his five games against quarterback Jalen Hurts, Quinn’s Cowboys sacked him 18 times, intercepted five of his passes, and held him to nine touchdown passes. In his six games against running back Saquon Barkley when he was playing for the New York Giants, Quinn’s defense held him to only two rushing touchdowns from 86 carries. Washington has held five of their opponents to no more than 18 points. Led by Dante Fowler, Jr. who played for Quinn in Atlanta and Dallas as well, the Commanders are doing a great job pressuring the quarterback. Washington has a pressure rate of 40% of their opponent’s drop backs — and they rank fourth in pass rush win rate. Hurts thrives in a clean pocket where he has a Passer Rating of 114.5 while completing 79% of his passes — but when pressured, Hurts Passer Rating drops to an 80.3 mark and he is completing only 52% of his passes. Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset loss in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. His teams have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total in Weeks 10 through 13. Philadelphia held the Cowboys to only 2.6 Yards-Per-Play last week which resulted in just 146 yards of offense. The young Eagles defense appears to be maturing under the guidance of veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. They have not allowed more than 23 points in five straight games — and they have held four of those opponents to 17 or fewer points. Philly enjoys the third lowest opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they rank 11th in the NFL Run Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Hurts has been putting up great numbers lately — but he has benefited from an easy schedule as his last four opponents rank 26th or lower in Defensive DVOA. In their first five games against defenses ranking in the 18th to 23rd range as of now in Defensive DVOA, the Eagles only scored 17 PPG. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow NFC rivals. And while the Commanders generate 153.5 rushing YPG, the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams averaging 130 or more rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Quinn’s teams as a head coach have played 22 of their 34 games Under the Total against winning teams — and they have played 10 of their 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (285) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (286). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-6) has lost three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 30-27 loss at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles Rams (4-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 26-20 win at Seattle in overtime as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a fishy line. Miami is on a three-game losing streak and has won only two games this season — and wide receiver Tyreek Hill is a game-time decision. The Rams are riding a three-game winning streak and are getting healthy on both sides of the ball, especially with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacau back from their injuries. The Dolphins are crushing their bettors this season — they are getting outscored by -8.2 Points-Per-Game relative to the point spread. The betting public is all over the Rams tonight. At DraftKings, 80% of the money and 77% of the bets are on Los Angeles — and yet most books including DraftKings have not even moved the Rams to a field goal favorite? I smell a rat — and I am fading the public. I see enough to justify this decision. Miami has plenty of offensive weapons outside of Hill. Tua Tagovailoa completed 25 of his 28 passes last week. They outgained the Bills by +48 net yards while generating 373 total yards of offense. In the last two weeks since Tagovailoa returned from the concussion protocol, their offense ranks second in Expected Points Added per play on offense. The Dolphins defense has played a bit better than expected as well. Despite giving up 30 points last week, they held the Bills to just 325 yards of offense. They are only giving up 303.1 total YPG — and they hold their home hosts to 319.5 total YPG and 20.0 PPG. Miami comes into this game desperate — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six points or less. I appreciate that the Los Angeles offense is much more potent when both wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy and on the field. But the Rams are still banged up on their offensive line with right tackle Rob Havenstein out and right guard Kevin Dotson questionable. The Rams got outgained by -58 net yards in their win against the Seahawks last week — but a +2 net turnover margin including a 103-yard interception return for a touchdown helped them overcome that yardage deficit. It is telling that Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored by up to seven points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games under head coach Sean McVay against teams not winning more than 25% of their games. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Miami Dolphins (285) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (285) and the Los Angeles Rams (286). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-6) has lost three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 30-27 loss at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles Rams (4-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 26-20 win at Seattle in overtime as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have a good young defense that is underrated and getting healthier. They lead the NFL in sacks, hits on the quarterback, and interceptions. They rank second in the league with a pressure rate of 29.1% of their opponent’s dropbacks. Since returning from their bye week in Week Seven, they rank second in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 339.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 18.3 Points-Per-Game. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, the Rams have played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. I appreciate that the Los Angeles offense is much more potent when both wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy and on the field. But the Rams are still banged up on their offensive line with right tackle Rob Havenstein out and right guard Kevin Dotson questionable. Miami is without right tackle Austin Jackson — and wide receiver Tyreek Hill is a game-time decision with a wrist injury he re-aggravated on Friday. He says he “will try” to play tonight — but the signs are not looking good. Even if he takes the field, he will probably not be 100% since catching the football requires using one’s wrist. The Dolphins defense has played a bit better than expectation. Despite giving up 30 points last week, they held the Bills to just 325 yards of offense. They are only giving up 303.1 total YPG — and they hold their home hosts to 319.5 total YPG and 20.0 PPG. Miami has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road after allowing 30 or more points. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 3 of their last 4 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while the Rams are giving up 360.1 total YPG, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 11 of their 14 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 25% of their games under head coach Sean McVay. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (285) and the Los Angeles Rams (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (283) and the Houston Texans (284). THE SITUATION: Detroit (7-1) has won six games in a row after their 24-14 win at Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (6-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 21-13 loss in New York against the Jets as a 2.5-point underdog back on October 31st.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston held the Jets to just 293 yards of offense last week. The Texans are holding visiting teams to just 274.3 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. They rank second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Houston has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Houston has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total played on grass. Detroit has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on grass which tends to slow down their speedy skill players on offense. The Lions may be scoring 32.3 PPG but they are only generating 369.6 total YPG. They only gained 261 yards last week in their win against Green Bay. Much of their scoring has been dependent on forcing turnovers. They scored on a 27-yard interception returned for a touchdown last week — and they have forced 13 turnovers in their alt five games. The underappreciated aspect of this Detroit team has been how good their defense has played since the injury to Adrian Hutchinson. In the three games since that injury, the Lions have registered five sacks and another 12 hits on the quarterback. Detroit ranks third in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. Detroit has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. They are allowing 357.1 total YPG — and the Texans have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Houston has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Toal set at 49.5 or higher. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (283) and the Houston Texans (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (284) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (283). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 21-13 loss in New York against the Jets as a 2.5-point underdog back on October 31st. Detroit (7-1) has won six games in a row after their 24-14 win at Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: I do not like the “sell high” or “buy low” rationales in sports betting. I think it is a flawed analogy to suggest sports teams are like stocks — as if their performances are destined to rise and fall like a price in the stock market. I also do not think the betting market (or the stock market) is necessarily rational. So-called “sharps” lose all the time — and square bettors win their share of games (which keeps them gambling). Bettors “selling high” on the Detroit Lions would likely be bankrupt by now considering they are on a 33-12 ATS run over the last three seasons — and these bettors thinking they are sharp by only fading them away from Ford Field would have lost 12 of their last 14 bets. These caveats aside, we may be seeing the peak of the Lions' perceived value by the betting market after their resounding victory in the rain against the Packers — and that presents us some point spread value with the line being pushed past some key numbers. But that dynamic is not enough for me to endorse the Texans. The second factor that persuades me is simply that Detroit’s underlying numbers suggest their recent success will be difficult to replicate. For starters, the Lions are thriving in winning the turnover battle. They scored on a 27-yard interception returned for a touchdown last week — and that event helped obscure that their defense surrendered 411 yards and they actually got outgained by -150 net yards. Despite their 7-1 record, Detroit is only outgaining their opponents by +12.5 net Yards-Per-Game. The Lions lead the NFL in net turnover margin — and they are averaging a +1.4 net turnover margin per game. That is simply unsustainable as the season moves on. In their last five games, Detroit has forced 12 turnovers while committing just one turnover. Now I don’t expect Jared Goff to become midseason Sam Darnold suddenly, but a few interceptions here, a few lost fumbles there, and fewer takeaways along the way quickly evens out that recent turnover edge — and the Lions' meager edge in yards results in them being in coin flip games. On the other hand, we are catching Houston a bit undervalued relative to what I expect to be long-term market expectations. They outgained the Jets last week by +29 net yards despite the loss. The Texans have not paid off bettors in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The team expects wide receiver Tank Dell to return to the field tonight — and they hope Nico Collins joins him at wide receiver with him being a game-time decision after he has missed the last few games. Expect plenty of touches from running back Joe Mixon who is averaging over 100 rushing YPG this season. Detroit can be run on — opposing rushers are generating 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. And then there is second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud who still is exhibiting extreme home/road splits in his young career. In 12 games on the road, Stroud is completing only 60.7% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. But in his 12 starts at home in his career, he enjoys a 66.4% completion percentage with 22 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Houston is 4-0 this season at home with an average winning margin of +4.0 PPG. They are outgaining their guests by +109.0 net YPG due to the strength of their defense. The Texans are holding visiting teams to just 274.3 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. They rank second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. And, by the way, the 383.3 total YPG they average at home is more than the Lions’ 379.3 YPG that they generate on the road. Houston has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games as an underdog. And while Detroit is outscoring their opponents by +13.8 PPG, the Texans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Houston tends to do well against high-scoring teams that rely on winning the turnover battle. The Lions are scoring 32.3 PPG — but the Texans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Houston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams who enjoy a +1.0 or better turnover margin per game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Houston Texans (284) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (283). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (279) and the Dallas Cowboys (280). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-2) has won four games in a row after their 28-23 win against Jacksonville as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (3-5) has lost three games in a row after their 27-21 loss at Atlanta on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys held the Falcons to just 310 yards of offense last week despite the injuries they have sustained on defense. Now they look to get defensive end Micah Parsons and cornerback Trevon Diggs back with this unit starting to get healthy again. But Dallas will be playing without quarterback Dak Prescott moving forward with him going on the injured list with his hamstring injury. Cooper Rush will be under center for the Cowboys. He completed only 13 of 25 passes in relief last week for just 115 passing yards and a low 4.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Dallas has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Eagles score 24.9 Points-Per-Game — and the Cowboys have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The Eagles are running the ball more which is helping to keep their defense rested. Their offense has been on the field for over 35 minutes per game in their last three games which is about three minutes above their season average. Not coincidentally, they have held their last three opponents to 204.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in these foes scoring just 14.3 PPG. Philadelphia goes back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. They have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And while the Cowboys are allowing 6.1 Yards-Per-Play, Philly has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 5.65 or more YPP.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (279) and the Dallas Cowboys (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (264) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (263). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-5) has lost two games in a row after their 21-13 loss at Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (7-2) has won four games in a row after their 30-27 win at home against Miami as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a tough spot for a Bills team that had 19 players on their injured list during the week. Rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman is out for this game and now Adam Schefter is reporting that wide Amari Cooper is not expected to play in this game as well. As it is, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against AFC East rivals. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning three or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Indianapolis has bounced back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco remains under center as long as this team is alive in the AFC playoff race. In his last two seasons as a starter with the Colts and with Cleveland last year, he has a 5-3 record with those teams scoring 26.3 Points-Per-Game. He has averaged 292.9 passing Yards-Per-Game in those contests with 18 touchdowns and a 90.8 Passer Rating. Running back Jonathan Taylor has rushed for at least 100 yards in four of his last five games. He should have success against this Bills team that can be run on. Buffalo is allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Dolphins ran 31 times for 149 yards against them last week. Indianapolis has covered the point spread 8 of their last 13 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games against fellow AFC rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against teams from the AFC — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home after the first month of the season — and the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Indianapolis Colts (264) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (146) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (145). THE SITUATION: Utah (4-4) has lost four games in a row after their 17-14 upset loss at Houston as a 4.5-point favorite back two weeks ago on October 26th. BYU (8-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 37-24 upset win at Central Florida as a 3-point underdog on October 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: After winning their first four games this season, injuries have played a role in them losing four games in a row — but their last three losses to Arizona State, TCU, and then the Cougars were all by one scoring possession. The Utes did outgain Houston by +17 net yards by holding them to just 289 yards of offense. Utah still has an outstanding defense under head coach Kyle Whittingham. The Utes are holding their opponents to 303.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 16.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank seventh in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 11th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. Additionally, they rank sixth in Finishing Drives Allowed — and they rank second in 3rd Down Defense. The problem has been the offense with quarterback Cam Rising once again out of the season with injuries. Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig stepped down a few weeks ago — so interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian has used the extra week to adjust the offense to the skillsets of either Isaac Wilson or freshman Brandon Rose. In Whittingham, I trust, to right the ship this week. Utah has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 37 games with an extra week to prepare under Whittingham. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home in expected lower-scoring games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. BYU has been fortunate to not lose a game this season. They beat Oklahoma State on a last-second game-winning touchdown against an injury-riddled Cowboys. Their victory against Kansas State was fluky as they scored 38 points from non-offensive touchdowns that helped them overcome only gaining 241 yards in that game. They have won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — and they have benefited from a +7 net turnover margin. They have also converted on 15 of their 18 fourth down attempts. These are all areas where the Regression Gods eventually appear to even things out — and it could get ugly for the Cougars when it happens. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has 18 touchdown passes — but he has not registered a “Big Time Throw” all season and has seven turnover-worthy plays. The Cougars have an excellent pass defense that ranks 12th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — but that is not the strength of this Utes team. Utah wants to run the football — and BYU ranks just 84th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 87th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Cougars hold their opponents to just 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but the Utes have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games against teams who are not allowing more than 5.75 YPA. BYU has failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 7 games against teams not allowing more than 17.0 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams not giving up more than 310 YPG. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games against conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Whittingham will have his team ready to play in the Holy War with the motivation to ruin BYU’s perfect season. Utah has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games as an underdog getting four or more points under Whittingham. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Year with the Utah Utes (146) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (110) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (109). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 41-10 victory as a 9-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (4-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-24 win against Las Vegas on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Lamar Jackson is enjoying another MVP season. He leads the NFL with a Passer Rating of 120.7 — and he has registered seven straight games with a Passer Rating of at least 100. He ranks third in the league with 2379 passing yards — and he has thrown for 275 or more yards in five straight games. For the season, he has 20 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. Jackson loves the prime-time stage where he has an 18-5 straight-up record as a starter — and the Ravens have won nine of his ten starts at home in prime-time. Furthermore, Jackson won nine of his 11 starts against the Bengals — and he has thrown 18 touchdown passes to just four interceptions and added 750 rushing yards with two touchdowns on the ground against Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s defense. Additionally, Baltimore has rushed for at least 100 yards in 25 straight games. Running back Derrick Henry has rushed for 214 yards from 37 carries for a 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry average in his two previous games against Anarumo’s Bengals defense. The Ravens have scored 41 or more points in three of their last five games — and they have scored 28 or more points in six of their last seven games. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home with the Total at 45.5 or higher — and they covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored by seven points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the second half of the season under head coach John Harbaugh. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a straight-up win at home. They come into this game at less than 100%. Wide receiver Tee Higgins is doubtful with his quad injury that kept him out the last two games. Left tackle Orlando Brown is questionable with a left knee. It is interesting to note that star defensive end Trey Hendrickson has only one sack in the Ravens’ last 134 dropbacks when these two teams are playing each other. That is not a good sign for a team that is getting outgained by -12.3 net Yards-Per-Game this season despite their winning record — and they are getting outgained by -21.5 net YPG in their four games on the road. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against AFC North opponents. The Bengals are generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play which is helping them generate 26.2 PPG — but these are the type of teams that the Ravens handle. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 straight games against teams who score 24 or more PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams averaging 5.6 or more YPP.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens won the first meeting between these two teams resulted in a 41-38 win in overtime on October 6th. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. 25* AFC North Game of the Month is with the Baltimore Ravens (110) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (109) and the Baltimore Ravens (110). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-24 win against Las Vegas last Sunday. Baltimore (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 41-10 victory as a 9-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens held the Broncos to just 319 yards last week with only 192 yards coming in the air. Baltimore ranks third in the NFL in Run Defense DVOA according to the metrics by the Football Outsiders. But they also rank just 23rd in Pass Defense DVOA. After the Bengals’ quarterback Joe Burrow threw for a season-high 392 yards against them on October 6th in their 41-38 overtime win at home last month, head coach John Harbaugh brought in veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees to serve as a senior advisor to rookie defensive coordinator Zachary Orr. The Ravens should have a better defensive plan in this rematch. At home, they are only giving up 280.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring just 17.3 Points-Per-Game. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 22 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record including 5 straight Unders at home against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati is also playing better defense since the scoring fest between these two teams last month. The Bengals are giving tip 342.9 total YPG but they have held their last four opponents to 314.8 YPG in their last four games since the loss to the Ravens. In their four games on the road, they are allowing their home hosts to generate just 326.5 YPG which is resulting in just 17.8 PPG. Cincinnati has played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 24 road games Under the Total as a dog getting up to seven points. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals will likely be without wide receiver Tee Higgins who is listed as doubtful with a quad injury — and starting left tackle Orlando Brown is questionable with a knee injury. They are scoring 26.2 PPG — but Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are scoring 24.0 or more PPG. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (109) and the Baltimore Ravens (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss to Atlanta as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (7-0) has won their first seven games of the season after their 27-20 win at home against Las Vegas as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas City held the Raiders to just 228 yards last Sunday — but they only managed 334 yards themselves despite scoring 27 points. The Chiefs have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win against an AFC West rival. They stay at home where they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine. Kansas City’s defense should dominate this game. They are holding their opponents to 295.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.6 Points-Per-Game — and they rank second in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics by the Football Outsiders. They are only giving up 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank second in Defensive DVOA against the run. Furthermore, KC ranks third in pressure rate — and they play man-to-man pass coverage that the Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield has struggled against. Mayfield’s Expected Points Added per dropback are higher when he is playing against zone schemes. He has faced zone defenses for the last five games — but when he played against man schemes in Weeks Two and Three against Detroit and Denver, Tampa Bay generated only 219.5 total YPG which resulted in 13.5 PPG. While the Buccaneers gained 432 yards against the Falcons’ defense despite the injuries to wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, matching that production will be more difficult against this Steve Spagnuolo defense. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. And while the Bucs endured a -3 net turnover margin last week, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a two-game home stand. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49-point range. And in their last 7 games in November, the Bucs have played 5 of these games Under the Total. The Tampa Bay pass defense is vulnerable as they are surrendering 255.4 passing YPG — but Kansas City has played 6 straight Unders against teams who are giving up 235 or more passing YPG.  

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers are scoring 29.4 PPG this season — but the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total against teams who are scoring 24 or more PPG. Rain is expected at Arrowhead Stadium tonight which may play a role in slowing down one or both of these offenses tonight. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (477) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (478). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss to Atlanta as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (7-0) has won their first seven games of the season after their 27-20 win at home against Las Vegas as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay outgained the Falcons last week by +38 net yards but could not overcome a -3 net turnover margin. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after losing their last game. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was able to move the offense despite the absences of wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin due to injuries. He completed 37 of 50 passes for 330 yards — and the Bucs generated 432 yards in that contest last week. Now they go on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +7.4 net Points-Per-Game with their offense scoring 33.7 PPG. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after the first month of the season. Kansas City only gained 334 yards last week in their victory against the Raiders. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after Week Eight in the regular season. And while the Buccaneers are allowing 131.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams who allow 130 or more rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs may be 7-0 but only two of those victories were by more than seven points. Kansas City is a 19-32-2 ATS in Patrick Mahomes’ last 53 starts when favored by more than three points. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Kansas City ESPN Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (477) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-2) has lost two games in a row after their 30-20 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 2.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 24th. Indianapolis (4-4) had won two games in a row before their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Colts
 head coach Shane Steichen turns to Joe Flacco under center moving forward as he is benching Anthony Richardson after the second-year quarterback’s struggles culminated in him taking himself out of last week’s game after getting winded on a long play. Steichen needed to make that decision to keep the faith of his locker room — especially with the team still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. Indianapolis has a 2-1 record in the three games that he has played this season — but they lost the yardage battle in two of those contests. The Colts have a 4-4 record but they are getting outgained by -53.6 net Yards-Per-Game. Their defense is giving up 379.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and that unit ranks 19th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games away from home against teams from the NFC — and this will be their fourth game on the road in the last five weeks. Minnesota will be a bit more rested after playing the Thursday game last week. They have scored 28 or more points in four of their seven games — and reinforcements are coming to help out quarterback Sam Darnold. After losing left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending injury, they acquired tackle Cam Robinson from Jacksonville. Tight end T.J. Hockenson makes his season debut tonight as well. The Colts primarily play Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone schemes against the pass — and Darnold thrives against zone coverages. He is completing over 75% of his passes and averaging over 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt against zone defenses. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games from Week Five to Week Nine.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (465) and the Minnesota Vikings (466). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-4) had won two games in a row before their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (5-2) has lost two games in a row after their 30-20 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 2.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 24th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Head coach Shane Steichen turns to Joe Flacco under center moving forward as he is benching Anthony Richardson after the second-year quarterback’s struggles culminated in him taking himself out of last week’s game after getting winded on a long play. Steichen needed to make that decision to keep the faith of his locker room — especially with the team still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. In the three games that Flacco has played this season, the Colts have scored 81 combined points for a 27.0 Points-Per-Game average. Those three games saw an average of 53 combined points scored. For the season, he has seven touchdown passes and only one interception. He was never very mobile — so there could be concern about him facing the blitz-heavy Vikings defense under defensive coordinator Brian Flores. But Flacco brings plenty of savvy with him — and he knows he has to get the ball out early and attack the blitz. He is averaging only one sack per 21 throws this season which is much better than Richardson’s sack rate despite his great mobility. Indianapolis ranks sixth in the NFL in adjusted sack rate allowed. They should also get plenty of production from running back Jonathan Taylor who returned from his three-game absence by rushing for 105 yards on 20 carries. The Minnesota run defense has been exposed lately as they surrendered 250 rushing yards in their last two games. The Colts' defense is giving up 379.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and that unit ranks 19th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing in a domed stadium. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have suffered two straight upset losses, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. This Flores defense is showing signs of vulnerability lately having surrendered 29 or more points in three of their last four games. The Vikings are giving up 263.4 passing Yards-Per-Game — and Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams that are allowing 235 or more passing Yards-Per-Game. Minnesota has scored 28 or more points in four of their seven games — and reinforcements are coming to help out quarterback Sam Darnold. After losing left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending injury, they acquired tackle Cam Robinson from Jacksonville. Tight end T.J. Hockenson makes his season debut tonight as well. The Colts primarily play Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone schemes against the pass — and Darnold thrives against zone coverages. He is completing over 75% of his passes and averaging over 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt against zone defenses. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams that are allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is scoring 28.7 PPG at home this season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total as a home favorite. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (465) and the Minnesota Vikings (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the SMU Mustangs (366) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (365). THE SITUATION: SMU (7-1) has won five games in a row after their 28-27 victory in overtime at Duke as an 11-point favorite last Saturday. Pittsburgh (7-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 41-13 win against Syracuse as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MUSTANGS MINUS THE POINTS: SMU endured a brutal -6 net turnover margin against the Blue Devils last week — but they still won that game because they won the yardage battle by +76 yards. The Mustangs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after a win by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road against a conference rival. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games after beating a conference rival. SMU was very active in the transfer portal two off-seasons ago with head coach Rhett Lashlee poaching several players from Miami (FL) where he had previously been the offensive coordinator. He employed a similar strategy on defense by using Liberty as his minor league program where defensive coordinator Scott Symons had previously run the defense. It worked. SMU won the American Athletic Conference regular season and Conference Championship Game en route to an 11-3 record. It was the play of the defense that transformed this program. After ranking 111th in the nation in 2022 by surrendering 431.2 total Yards-Per-Game, the Mustangs improved to 12th in the FBS by giving up only 304.1 YPG. Lashlee has earned the benefit of the doubt regarding the transfer portal — and he was very active once again this offseason. With only two starters returning on the offensive line, he brought in five transfers on the offensive line from Power Five conference programs. He added double-digit transfers on defense including eight linemen from Power Five conference teams. Lashlee certainly understands the challenge in SMU’s move to the ACC and they have won their first four games in the conference this season. The Mustangs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after the first month of the season. Pittsburgh benefited from a +5 net turnover margin last week — and that helped them overcome only gaining 217 yards in that contest and losing the yardage battle -110 net yards. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 17 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road in ACC play.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as an underdog — and SMU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when favored. 20* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the SMU Mustangs (366) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (365). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (378) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (377). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-17 loss at Indiana as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. USC (4-4) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 42-20 win at home against Rutgers as a 14-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington fell behind early in Bloomington last week when Will Rogers threw an interception that the Hoosiers returned for a 67-yard touchdown. The Huskies won the yardage battle by +6 net yards while holding the explosive Indiana offense to just 312 yards. Washington leads the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Huskies return home for a critical game for bowl eligibility with tough assignments still looming at Oregon and at Penn State. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November. Despite their record, the Huskies have a powerful and balanced offensive attack. They rank eighth in the nation in Pass Success Rate. They also rank 15th in the FBS in Rush Success Rate and eighth in Line Yards. Running back Jonah Coleman is generating 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry. He should generate plenty of yards against a Trojans defense that ranks 59th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 61st in Line Yards Allowed. USC only ranks 78th in Havoc Rate as well — so Rogers should also have a good game. USC will be playing for the seventh straight week with their bye coming up next week — and they have traveled to Michigan and Maryland during that stretch. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road after winning their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after beating a conference rival. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 10 road games when favored in head coach Lincoln Riley’s tenure. USC has lost all three of their games this season as a road favorite.

FINAL TAKE: First-year head coach Jedd Fisch has had plenty of success in situations like this. His teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 games at home as an underdog including covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home getting up to seven points. Fisch’s teams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with Washington Huskies (378) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (377). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (311) and the New York Jets (312). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 23-20 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (2-6) has lost five games in a row after their 25-22 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans held the Colts to just 303 yards of offense in their three-point victory last week. While quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention for this team, the Houston defense under second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans is outstanding. The Texans rank second in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. General manager Nick Caserio was very aggressive in the offseason to upgrade the talent level on that side of the ball. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair came over from Tennessee and will be the signal caller for the defense. Caserio picked cornerback Kamari Lassiter from Georgia in the second round as his first pick in the NFL draft. Linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. both thrived under the new coaching staff last year — and rookie defensive end Willie Anderson, Jr. justified the haul Caserio spent to move up in the draft to select him as the third pick. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry upgraded Houston’s pass rush after they combined for 28 sacks last season. So far this season, Houston already has 27 sacks — and they have another 54 hits on the quarterback and 52 tackles for loss. Now they face the aging Aaron Rodgers who has been sacked 13 times in his last five games while taking another 39 hits to the quarterback over that span. The Texans are allowing only 280.3 total Yards-Per-Game this season — and they are holding their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG in their four games on the road. Houston has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home. Now the Texans go back on the road where Stroud has not been nearly as effective. In his 12 career starts at home, Stroud has 22 touchdown passes while completing 66.4% of his passes, averaging 308.9 passing YPG, and posting a Passer Rating of 105.7. But in his 11 career starts on the road, he has only 12 touchdown passes while completing 62.8% of his passes, averaging just 213.5 passing YPG, and posting a 90.5 Passer Rating. To compound matters, Stroud will be without his top-two targets in the passing game with Nico Collins still injured and now Stefon Diggs out the season with the injury he incurred last week. The Texans have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog. New York held the Patriots to only 247 yards last week but discovered another way to lose. The Jets are generating only 310.6 total YPG which is resulting in 18.8 Points-Per-Game. But the New York defense is giving up only 286.8 total YPG — and they are holding their visitors to just 228.0 YPG at home which is resulting in their guests scoring only 12.0 PPG. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing at home. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored — and Houston has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (311) and the New York Jets (312).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Jets (312) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (311). THE SITUATION: New York (2-6) has lost five games in a row after their 25-22 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Houston (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 23-20 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINTS: No, this is not my wink-wink message for someone to call the police because I have been kidnapped by saying someone very much out of character. I have been quite skeptical about this New York Jets team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. But they are favored tonight for a reason. It is not often teams with a 2-6 record are favored against teams with a 6-2 record. I do not invoke empirical situational angles often — but I do track this information in my database. In the last 20 years in the NFL games played in October, November, or December, there have been only eight teams who were not winning more than 25% of their games favored against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. Those favorites with bad records have a 5-2-1 ATS mark going into tonight’s game. New York held the Patriots to just 247 yards last week and did not commit a turnover despite losing that game. In that “accomplishment”, they became the first team since 2013 to lose an NFL game despite holding their opponent to under 250 yards and not committing a turnover in that game. Before that game last Sunday, NFL teams who did not commit a turnover and did not allow 250 or more yards were 220-0 straight up. I do not like the chemistry and cohesion of this team at all — but perhaps that there are now 2-6 on the season, it fits their character to finally pull out a win in prime-time on Halloween night. The pressure is off at this point. They are not going to make the playoffs since that would require them to most likely reel off eight wins in their final nine games. They have an 0-4 record in games decided by six-points or less. And now they play a wounded Texans team that is without C.J. Stroud’s top-two targets in the passing game with Nico Collins still injured and now Stefon Diggs out the season with the injury he incurred last week. Now Houston goes back on the road where Stroud has not been nearly as effective. In his 12 career starts at home, Stroud has 22 touchdown passes while completing 66.4% of his passes, averaging 308.9 passing YPG, and posting a Passer Rating of 105.7. But in his 11 career starts on the road, he has only 12 touchdown passes while completing 62.8% of his passes, averaging just 213.5 passing YPG, and posting a 90.5 Passer Rating. The Texans are getting outscored on the road by -1.7 Points-Per-Game — and the Jets are outscoring their opponents at home by +5.6 PPG and winning the yardage battle by +119.0 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams not winning more than 25% of their games. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (312) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 28-3 loss to Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (5-2) has won two games in a row after their 37-15 upset win at home against the New York Jets as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York plays lower-scoring games because they combined a solid defense with an inept offense. They rank 14th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. They are generating only 290.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 14.1 Points-Per-Game — but they are holding their opponents to 317.6 YPG overall and 18.7 PPG when playing on the road. New York leads the league with 31 sacks. The Giants have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played  8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total as an underdog overall. Additionally, New York has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in October. Pittsburgh ranks 10th in the league in Defensive DVOA  — but they are just 21st in Offensive DVOA which is why they tend to play Unders. The Steelers hold their opponents to 298.6 total YPG which is resulting in just 14.4 PPG. Pittsburgh has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Jets last week — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored overall.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 7 straight Unders in non-conference play — and Pittsburgh has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total in non-conference action. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (291) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 28-3 loss to Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (5-2) has won two games in a row after their 37-15 upset win at home against the New York Jets as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York looked ugly last Sunday — but head coach Brian Daboll usually gets his team to respond after bad efforts. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing to an NFC East rival. New York often plays better on the road where they are 2-1 this season while outscoring their opponents by +4.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +29.7 net Yards-Per-Game. The Giants have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against non-conference opponents. Pittsburgh is the highest point spread favorite tonight in the post-Ben Roethlisberger era. For the record, in the two previous games when they were the largest favorite since he retired, they got upset in both games. Many observers are bullish on what they saw with Russell Wilson last week. He completed 16 of 29 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. For me, he did not pass the eye-test so I remain very skeptical. He was dreadful in the first half of that game. He got better in the second half — but, let’s be honest, he was also the beneficiary of some incredible finger-tip catches that tipped the balance in that game. To quote Ric Flair after losing a wrestling match: “You did it once, now do it again (Whoo!).” The Wilson hype has helped push this number so high with the hope that he will find new life with the Steelers. There are many folks who tend to think that “Russ Can’t Fail — he can only be failed!” The “Let Russ Cook” brigade can point to his 26:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season to advance that he was pretty, pretty good after all last season. Maybe … but that analysis gets refuted by Sean Payton’s decision to not only give up on Wilson after one year by also eat $85 million in dead cap money. Payton eventually deployed the Taysom Hill gameplans with Wilson in the second half of the season with the offense usually not throwing the ball even 30 times a game. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' seminar on Stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continues to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. The Giants only average 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who are not averaging 5.7 or more YPA.

FINAL TAKE: New York is getting outscored by -7.2 Points-Per-Game — but Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams who are getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG. The Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. 25*  NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the New York Giants (291) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (289) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (290). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-3) had won two games in a row before their 47-9 loss at home against Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog two Sundays ago. San Francisco (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-15 upset loss against Kansas City as a 2-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams come off bad losses — and both of these teams need the victory to keep pace in the NFC playoff race. The loser is in serious trouble. I expect a close game. I am not surprised about the struggles of this Dallas team — and their predicament is made all the worse with the injuries to linebacker Micah Parsons and cornerback DaRon Bland. But this team was humiliated two weeks ago by the Lions. With two weeks to rest and prepare, I suspect we will see the very best version of what this Cowboys team can be. Don’t underestimate head coach Mike McCarthy’s abilities to self-scout his team on the bye week. His teams going back to Green Bay have covered the point spread in 14 of their 19 games with two weeks to prepare including covering the point spread in three of the four games with the Cowboys. Furthermore, McCarthy’s teams are 38-23-3 ATS in their 64 games when he has had extra time to prepare — and his teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games with extra time with Dallas. Additionally, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 18 of their 24 games in the regular season played with extra rest with Dak Prescott their starting quarterback — and Dallas has covered 12 of their last 15 regular season games since 2019 with Prescott at QB including those last six occasions. Furthermore, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a losing record. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams winning at least .500 of their games with Brock Purdy at quarterback. While the hyperventilating in the national media continues regarding whether or not the former Iowa State quarterback is overrated or underrated, the numbers indicate that he has a 6-6 record in his last 12 starts while completing only 63.5% of his passes with 14 touchdown passes and 14 turnovers. His Passer Rating in his last 12 games is just 87.8. His better numbers — along with head coach Kyle Shanahan — tend to arrive when running back Christian McCaffrey is healthy and playing. Now not only McCaffrey is still on the shelf this season but wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings are both out for this game. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is questionable but expected to play after being in the hospital with pneumonia earlier in the week. Tight end George Kittle is also questionable but expected to play. It is reasonable to conclude neither is close to 100%. This is not good news for a Niners offense that is the sixth-worst in the Red Zone this season. The defense is struggling as well with several key injuries. Safety Talanoa Hufanga will miss his third straight game. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrove will miss his fifth straight game tonight. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw has not played all season. Their absences help explain why San Francisco has allowed 25.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. Their defense ranks 21st in the league in Defensive DVOA against the run using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Dallas generates 259.3 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams who average 235 or more passing YPG. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points —  and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (289) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (289) and the San Francisco 49ers (290). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-3) had won two games in a row before their 47-9 loss at home against Detroit as a 3.5-point underdog two Sundays ago. San Francisco (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-15 upset loss against Kansas City as a 2-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers’ defense is struggling as well with several key injuries. Safety Talanoa Hufanga will miss his third straight game. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrove will miss his fifth straight game tonight. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw has not played all season. Their absences help explain why San Francisco has allowed 25.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. Their defense ranks 21st in the league in Defensive DVOA against the run using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. The Niners have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total under head coach Kyle Shanahan when they are favored by 3.5 to7 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas has a real predicament on defense given the injuries to linebacker Micah Parsons and cornerback DaRon Bland. And in hindsight, perhaps that unit was destined to take a step back after defensive coordinator Dan Quinn left to take the Washington head coaching job. The Cowboys have surrendered 44 or more points twice this season after the Lions generated 492 yards against them. Dallas has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. They have also played 16 of their last 26 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Niners average 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry while the Cowboys are allowing their opponents to generate 4.5 YPC. Dallas has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who are generating 4.5 or more YPC — and San Francisco has played 4 straight Overs against teams who are allowing 4.5 or more YPC. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (289) and the San Francisco 49ers (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (285) and the Las Vegas Raiders (286). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-0) remained undefeated this season after their 28-18 upset victory at San Francisco as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (2-5) has lost three games in a row after their 20-15 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs held the 49ers’ offense to joust 310 yards. But the Kansas City offense only managed 329 yards of offense despite being on the field for over 35 minutes of that game. Patrick Mahomes only passed for 154 yards — and he threw two interceptions. The team did acquire wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins this week which will help — but he will not immediately replace the production of injured wideout Rashee Rice. The defense is carrying this team. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to 306.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.2 Points-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 18 points in four straight contests. They rank fourth in DVOA defense using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the best in the business — and now he faces a limited Raiders offense that he prepares against twice a season. Kansas City has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, while the Chiefs have played four straight Unders, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 7 straight Unders in Weeks Five through Nine. Las Vegas has not scored more than 18 points in three straight games as they learn to live life without wide receiver Davante Adams. They are scoring just 15.3 PPG in those last three games. For the season, the Raiders are generating just 296.7 total YPG which is resulting in 17.7 PPG. Their offense ranks 29th in DVOA. With second-year quarterback Aidan O’Connell injured, it will be Gardner Minshew back under center — he has a career-low 73.2 Quarterback Rating this season. But the Las Vegas defense has been solid under head coach Antonio Pierce. They held the Rams to just 259 yards last week — and they are giving up only 316.9 total YPG this season. Pierce knows this Chiefs offense — he was the interim coach last Christmas when the Raiders upset Kansas City by a 20-14 score. Minshew was responsible for four turnovers last week in a game that Las Vegas ended with a -3 net turnover margin — and Las Vegas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Raiders are giving up 26.1 PPG — but the Chiefs have played 5 straight Unders against teams giving up 24 or more PPG. Kansas City is generating 350.3 YPG which is resulting in 24.3 PPG — and Las Vegas has played 4 straight Unders against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who generate 350 or more YPG. The Raiders have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Lastly, KC has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC West rivals. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (285) and the Las Vegas Raiders (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (181) and the Kansas State Wildcats (182). THE SITUATION: Kansas (1-5) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 42-14 victory against Houston as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. Kansas State (6-1) has won three games in a row after their 45-18 win at West Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jayhawks generated 467 yards last week against the Cougars with quarterback Jalon Daniels completing 16 of 21 passes for 247 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Daniels is inconsistent — he can lead an offense that puts up plenty of points but his mistakes too often put the opponent in scoring position. Kansas has scored 73 combined points in their last two games — and they have scored at least 27 points in four games in a row. But they had given up at least 32 points in three straight games before last week. Overall, they are scoring and surrendering 27.5 Points-Per-Game. Against fellow Big 12 rivals, are scoring 32.0 PPG but giving up 29.8 PPG. The Jayhawks have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Over the Total in conference play. They have also played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight Overs on the road getting 7.5 to 14 points as the dog. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in October. The Wildcats are scoring 33.3 PPG — and Kansas has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams scoring 31 or more PPG including seven of their last eight games on the road Over the Total against those teams. Kansas State has scored 118 combined points in their last three games for a 39.3 PPG scoring average. They return home where they are generating 467.0  total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 38.0 PPG. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against Big 12 rivals. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Under head coach Lance Leipold, Kansas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Kansas State has played 5 of the last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (181) and the Kansas State Wildcats (182). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 10/26:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with Kansas State minus the points versus Kansas. Kansas State (6-1) has won three games in a row after a 45-18 victory at West Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Wildcats return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Kansas (1-5) snapped their five-game losing streak with their 42-14 victory at home against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. The Jayhawks go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog. Take Kansas State minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Month last night with Chicago’s UPSET WIN against Milwaukee! Frank is on a 5 of 8 (63%) College Football run to continue his 8 of 13 (62%) CFB winning mark — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month for Saturday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (148) minus the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (147). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (3-4) has lost two games in a row after their 48-20 upset loss at Florida as a 2.5-point road favorite last Saturday. Auburn (2-5) has lost four games in a row after their 21-17 loss at Missouri as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINT(S): Kentucky got upset at home to what looks like a pretty good Vanderbilt team two weeks ago — and they laid an egg last week by getting upset for the second straight week at Florida against the Gators. Look for head coach Mark Stoops to right the ship tonight. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after getting upset in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after getting upset by an SEC rival in the Stoops era. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home after getting beat in their last contest. Kentucky has been inconsistent with bad losses like last week — but remember that this group has also upset Ole Miss this season and lost by only one point at home to Georgia. Their defense is the best unit on the field in this one — they are holding their opponents to just 283.6 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The Wildcats return home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games when favored by up to seven points. They are outscoring their opponents by +6.6 PPG when playing at home — and they are outgaining their guests by +87.6 net YPG. Kentucky is very tough to move the ball on when they are playing at home — they are limiting their visitors to just 231.2 total YPG resulting in 14.0 PPG. This is a good matchup for the Wildcats. Led by running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye, they rank 13th in Rushing Success Rate. Quarterback Brock Vandergriff has been inconsistent — but he has been effective in play-action with the Wildcats ranking 21st in the nation in Pass Explosiveness. The Tigers rank 44th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they have allowed 130 or more rushing yards in four of their last five games. Auburn is a mess after losing for their fourth game in a row. Their victory against New Mexico last month represents their only win against a team from the FBS. Second-year head coach Hugh Freeze is at risk of getting fired — he replaced a head coach who was let go in his second season. The vibes aren’t good. The Tigers blew a 17-6 lead entering the fourth quarter to Missouri — and they also blew a 21-10 fourth quarter lead against Oklahoma. These problems speak to a lack of team confidence and chemistry with the players making too many mistakes down the stretch. Quarterback Payton Thorne has thrown six interceptions. Auburn wants to run the ball behind running ball Jarquez Hunter -- but he will face one of the best defensive fronts in the FBS tonight. Kentucky ranks 17th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They also rank 16th in Havoc Rate — and that spells trouble for the mistake-ridden Tigers team that ranks 103rd in Havoc Rate Allowed. To compound matters, Auburn is playing their third straight game away from home.

FINAL TAKE: This is simply a bad matchup for the Tigers who struggle against stout defenses that thrive in stopping the run. The Wildcats are giving up only 105.7 rushing YPG. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams not giving up more than 120 rushing yards per game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against opponents like this. Lastly, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who do not give up more than 310 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against opponents like this. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the Kentucky Wildcats (148) minus the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (110) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (109). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 20-15 victory at home against the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday. Minnesota (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak to start the season snapped on Sunday in a 31-29 upset loss at home against Detroit as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a tough spot for the Vikings to recover from their tough loss at home against the Lions by traveling to Los Angeles on a short week. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. Despite only one loss this season, the Vikings are getting outgained by -7.6 net Yards-Per-Game. They are also getting outgained by -6.7 net YPG when playing on the road. Quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 50 throws — and he will still not have tight end T.J. Hockenson with the team declining to move him off the injured list for tonight’s game. Darnold thrives against man-to-man pass defense against which he generates 10.6 Yards-Per-Attempt, ranking second in the NFL. But now he faces a Rams defense that plays zone defense against the pass 76% of the time which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. Darnold only averages 7.8 YPA against zone defenses this season, ranking 14th in the league. Darnold also struggles against pressure against which he ranks 28th amongst NFL quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per dropback — as opposed to his rating fifth amongst quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when operating in a clean pocket. He is getting sacked 25% of the time when facing pressure. Here comes this Rams defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate led by Jared Verse. The rookie from Florida State being counted on to fill some of the void in the pass rush after Aaron Donald retired in the offseason has 29 pressures already this season. The Rams are getting good news with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua activated to play this game (although Nacua may not be able to go when push comes to shove tonight). A more credible passing attack will make running back Kyren Williams even more dangerous out of the backfield. In his last four games, Williams has 401 yards and seven touchdowns from 93 touches. Minnesota is scoring 28.0 Points-Per-Game — but Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams scoring 24 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games under head coach Sean McVay when playing on a short week with four days of preparation. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (110) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Rams (110). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak to start the season snapped on Sunday in a 31-29 upset loss at home against Detroit as a 1-point favorite. Los Angeles (2-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 20-15 victory at home against the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings surrendered 31 points last week which was the second time all season they have given up more than 17 points this season. When not playing the Lions or Green Bay, then Minnesota is only giving up 11.7 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores' defense ranks number one in the NFL in both Run Defense DVOA and Pass Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. On the road, the Vikings are surrendering just 319.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 6 straight road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in October. Quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 50 throws — and he will still not have tight end T.J. Hockenson with the team declining to move him off the injured list for tonight’s game. Darnold thrives against man-to-man pass defense against which he generates 10.6 Yards-Per-Attempt, ranking second in the NFL. But now he faces a Rams defense that plays zone defense against the pass 76% of the time which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. Darnold only averages 7.8 YPA against zone defenses this season, ranking 14th in the league. Darnold also struggles against pressure against which he ranks 28th amongst NFL quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per dropback — as opposed to his rating fifth amongst quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when operating in a clean pocket. He is getting sacked 25% of the time when facing pressure. Here comes this Rams defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate led by Jared Verse. The rookie from Florida State being counted on to fill some of the void in the pass rush after Aaron Donald retired in the offseason has 29 pressures already this season. Los Angeles only generated 259 yards last week with one of their touchdowns coming from a 33-yard fumble recovery. The Rams are getting good news with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua activated to play this game (although Nacua may not be able to go when push comes to shove tonight). But the team did not activate starting tackle Joe Noteboom from the injured list — and the porous offensive line has played a big role in holding back their offense. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 114 throws. They have scored more than 20 points only once this season. But the defense continues to improve — especially since Week Five after cornerback Tre’Davious White was benched. The Rams held Green Bay to just 323 total yards two weeks ago before limiting the Raiders to 317 yards last week. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 5 straight Unders at home in October. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total. And while the Vikings are allowing 260.8 passing YPG, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 235 or more passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Minnesota has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (109) and the Los Angeles Rams (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UTEP Miners (103) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (104). THE SITUATION: UTEP (1-6) snapped their six-game losing streak to start the season with a 30-21 upset victory as a 7-point underdog last Wednesday. Louisiana Tech (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after a 33-30 loss in overtime at New Mexico State last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs had not scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent going into their bye week at the end of last month. Third-year head coach Sonny Cumbie took advantage of that reset by benching junior Jack Turner and turning to redshirt freshman Evan Bullock at quarterback. Louisiana Tech responded by scoring 48 points in a 27-point victory at home against Middle Tennessee. Their 30 points were not enough to stave off the upset loss to the Aggies last week — but the Bulldogs have played 4 straight Overs after an upset loss in their last game. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Additionally, Louisiana Tech has played 7 of their last 8 games in October Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against Conference USA rivals. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. On paper, the Bulldogs are playing much better defense than they did last season. They have held four of their six opponents to 23 or fewer points — and they rank 19th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. But they have benefited from an easy strength of schedule so far with four of their opponents ranked 117th or worse in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rating system. UTEP generated 372 yards and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last week in their nine-point upset win against the Golden Panthers. The Miners go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog in the 3.5-10 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is generating 254.5 passing Yards-Per-Game this season — and UTEP has played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG. The Miners are giving up 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Bulldogs have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams who generate 4.75 or more YPC. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UTEP Miners (103) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (475). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-2) has won two of their last three games after their 51-27 victory at New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (4-2) has won four games in a row after their 30-23 victory at home against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay is a bit underrated. They are on the team in the NFL that ranks in the top-11 in the NFL in rushing and passing on offense as well as run defense and pass defense. They upset the Detroit Lions and they should be 5-1 except for a somewhat fluky loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Wide receiver Mike Evans is off the injury list — and defensive tackle Vita Vea is expected to play tonight after being listed as questionable all week. The offense generated a whopping 594 yards last week against the Saints — and they scored 114 combined points in their last three games. With the emergence of Sean Tucker last week, the Buccaneers have a three-headed monster at running back with Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and him. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning on the road in their previous game. Additionally, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. I don’t have much bad to say about Baltimore — but the concerns I had about their defense in my offseason deep-dive on the team seem to be coming to fruition. I worried about the brain drain on that side of the ball from the coaching staff with whiz-kid defensive coordinator Matt Macdonald taking the head coaching job in Seattle along with assistant coaches Anthony Walker and Dennard Wilson getting promoted to coordinator jobs at Miami and Tennessee. Former Baltimore Pro Bowler and linebacker coach Zachary Orr took over the defense — but the 32-year-old has never called plays. This defense was highly dependent on Macdonald’s schemes last year. They ranked seventh in disguised coverage schemes out of their base two-high safety shell — and despite relying on four or fewer rushers nearly 80% of the time, MacDonald’s disguised pass rush plays generated a league-leading 60 sacks. The Ravens are allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 7.5 yards per pass attempt which ranks 28th in the NFL. They also rank last in the league by surrendering 275.7 passing Yards-Per-Game — and the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams who are giving up 235 or more passing YPG. And while Baltimore is averaging 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt this season, Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are averaging 7.0 or more YPA. Furthermore, while Lamar Jackson has an incredible 22-1 straight-up record against teams from the NFC, he is also just 21-31-1 ATS in his 53 starts in the NFL when favored by more than three points.

FINAL TAKE: With Baker Mayfield as their starting quarterback, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 10 of their 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 7 games as a dog getting more than three points with Mayfield under center. 10* NFL Baltimore-Tampa Bay ABC-TV/ESPN Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (475) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-2) has won four games in a row after their 30-23 victory at home against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Tampa Bay (4-2) has won two of their last three games after their 51-27 victory at New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding rookie Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense to just 305 yards of offense. They lead the NFL in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They have been particularly stout against the run as they are holding their opponents to just 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry and 59.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total after the first month of the season. And while the Buccaneers are giving up 252.3 passing YPG, the Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams who are surrendering 235 or more passing YPG. Additionally, Baltimore has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Tampa Bay held the Saints to just 303 yards last week. The Buccaneers have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They have also played 4 straight Unders after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. The Bucs defense looks likely to get a boost tonight with defensive tackle Vita Vea expected to play after being listed as questionable all week. His return helps a defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards Allowed per opponent rushing attempt.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (475) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) plus the points versus the New York Jets (473). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (2-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-20 loss at home against Buffalo as a 1-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The latest Aaron Rodgers excuse was that wide receiver Mike Williams ran the wrong route on his wounded duck pass that the Bills intercepted to end that game. So after “allegedly” getting head coach Robert Saleh fired the previous week, Rodgers threw Williams under the bus in the post-game press conference. A few hours later, the Jets traded for wide receiver Davante Adams from Las Vegas. Problem solved! Just flip the switch for this New York offense that is generating only 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game that is resulting in just 18.8 Points-Per-Game. Since 2022, Rodgers is completing only 63.7% of his passes while averaging 211.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and generating a Passer Rating of just 89.0. Admittedly, Rodgers still throws a pretty ball — and there are a few times a game when he will execute simply brilliant passes. But the problem for these quarterbacks in the forties is that moments of brilliance become more of the exception rather than the norm. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees’ decline after 40 was not without similar flashes of greatness. It’s an issue of consistency. And another problem is the diminished mobility in the pocket for these aging quarterbacks. Rodgers has been sacked 11 times in his last three games while getting hit another 26 times. Now here comes T.J. Watt in what is a terrifying proposition for Rodgers tonight even if he has his bestest friend ever back with Adams. While the Jets are playing with a huge sense of urgency this week — that was also the case last week when they hosted Buffalo with first place in the AFC East on the line. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Steelers benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record. Russell Wilson gets the start tonight — but look for Justin Fields to still be on the field for special packages that take advantage of his running skills. Whether it is Fields or Wilson, the Pittsburgh offense is going to a run-first attack executing offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s game plan.

FINAL TAKE: The pressure cooker of this New York Jets team is even growing hotter and hotter the more they lose and then make more changes. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) plus the points versus the New York Jets (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: New York (2-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-20 loss at home against Buffalo as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Pittsburgh (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 32-13 victory at Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The latest Aaron Rodgers excuse was that wide receiver Mike Williams ran the wrong route on his wounded duck pass that the Bills intercepted to end that game. So after “allegedly” getting head coach Robert Saleh fired the previous week, Rodgers threw Williams under the bus in the post-game press conference. A few hours later, the Jets traded for wide receiver Davante Adams from Las Vegas. Problem solved! Just flip the switch for this New York offense that is generating only 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game that is resulting in just 18.8 Points-Per-Game. Since 2022, Rodgers is completing only 63.7% of his passes while averaging 211.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and generating a Passer Rating of just 89.0. Admittedly, Rodgers still throws a pretty ball — and there are a few times a game when he will execute simply brilliant passes. But the problem for these quarterbacks in the forties is that moments of brilliance become more of the exception rather than the norm. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees’ decline after 40 was not without similar flashes of greatness. It’s an issue of consistency. And another problem is the diminished mobility in the pocket for these aging quarterbacks. Rodgers has been sacked 11 times in his last three games while getting hit another 26 times. Now here comes T.J. Watt in what is a terrifying proposition for Rodgers tonight even if he has his bestest friend ever back with Adams. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders on the road when favored. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New York continues to play great defense — they are limiting their opponents to just 273.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.0 PPG. And while the Steelers are generating 131.5 rushing YPG, the Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG. Pittsburgh only gained 293 yards last week in their 19-point victory against the Raiders. The Steelers benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Pittsburgh held the Raiders to just 275 yards of offense last week. This stout Steelers defense is giving up only 294.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 14.3 PPG. The Jets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who are not giving up more than 17 PPG. The sluggish offense has compelled head coach Mike Tomlin to bench Justin Fields in lieu of Russell Wilson at quarterback. It’s not surprising that the team wants to see if Wilson can jumpstart this offense. I am not optimistic. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' old seminar in his last few seasons in Green Bay on stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions in Denver last season under head coach Sean Payton — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continued to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. There is a reason that Payton concluded the best decision for the franchise was to eat his big contract and move on. Don’t be surprised if Wilson continues to take sacks and throw shorter passes in the Arthur Smith offense — but, hey, his front-line completion numbers won’t be too bad. Since 2022, Wilson is completing only 63.3% of his passed while averaging 219.8 passing YPG and posting a 90.9 Passer Rating. And while Wilson will still move in the pocket, he has lost a step (or two) from the secret sauce that made him so effective when he was a younger player with Seattle. The offense loses the x-factor of the rushing quarterback without Fields under center. Pittsburgh returns home where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total between Weeks Five and Nine.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and the Jets have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total  with the Total set in that 35.5-42 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (466) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (465). THE SITUATION: New York (2-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 17-7 loss at home against Cincinnati as a 4-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York outgained the Bengals last Sunday night by + 5 net yards. Despite their 2-4 record, the Giants are outgaining their opponents this season by +5.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Injuries have hit this team hard with passer rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and now left tackle Andrew Thomas out — but the offense is getting rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers and running back Devin Singletary back for this game. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games after losing their last game. They stay at home to play for just the third time this season. New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games after the first month of the season. Additionally, they have covered the point spread 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games as an underdog. And while the Eagles are generating 366.8 total Yards-Per-Game, the Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who average 350 or more YPG. Philadelphia is getting outscored this season by -1.2 Points-Per-Game despite their 3-2 record. The Eagles will be without tight end Dallas Goedert due to injury in this game. That’s not good news for an offense that is just the fourth NFL team in the last 15 years to fail to score in the first quarter after five games. I suspect this speaks to the lack of chemistry between embattled head coach Joe Sirianni, quarterback Jalen Hurts, and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 17 games against NFC East rivals under Sirianni.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a losing record. The Giants have covered the point spread in 14 of their 20 games against teams with a winning record under head coach Brian Daboll — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. 25* NFC East Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (466) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (465). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (358) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (357). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (3-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 28-16 loss at home to Iowa State as a 3-point underdog. Kansas State (5-1) has won two games in a row after their 31-28 victory at Colorado as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia’s three losses are all against ranked teams — Penn State, Pittsburgh, and the Cyclones last week — who all remained undefeated so far this season. They are outscoring their opponents by +4.2 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their opponents by +50.7 net Yards-Per-Game given a powerful offense that generates 428.5 YPG. The Mountaineers have a Thunder and Lightning backfield of Jahiem White and C.J. Donaldson, Jr. along with dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene who rushed for 87 yards on ten carries last week against Iowa State. They rank 24th in the nation in Rush Success Rate. West Virginia should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing to a Big 12 rival in their last game. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Kansas State won a thriller on the road against the Buffaloes last week — but they have failed to cover the point spreads in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a win against a Big 12 opponent. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Quarterback Avery Johnson can be inconsistent — especially on the road. In their 38-9 loss at BYU, Johnson threw two interceptions and only averaged 4.6 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Wildcats are also vulnerable with their pass defense as they rank 104th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed while giving up 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas State has their in-state rivalry game against Kansas on deck next week — so they may be looking ahead. As it is, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when favored. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Month is with the West Virginia Mountaineers (358) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) had won three games in a row before their 23-16 loss at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. New Orleans (2-4) has lost four games in a row after their 51-27 loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Denver’s defense is — by far — the best unit in this contest. With the Saints absolutely ravaged by injuries, head coach Sean Payton will manage this game effectively and limit big mistakes to help his rookie quarterback Bo Nix win this game. The Broncos' defense ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Denver ranks fourth in the league in pressure rate — and in the last four weeks, they lead the NFL with 93 pressures on the quarterback. The Saints will privilege running the football with rookie Spencer Rattler making his second professional start tonight. The Broncos are second in the NFL in stuffing the run at or behind the line of scrimmage. Overall, Denver is giving up only 284.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 16.0 Points-Per-Game. But the offense ranks just 26th in Offensive DVOA — and they are only generating 278.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 18.7 Points-Per-Game. The Broncos have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after the first month of the season. The Saints are simply ravaged by injures right now. Quarterback Derek Carr is out once again which means Rattler will be under center. The offense gained only 303 total yards last week against the Buccaneers in his first career start. Starting wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Sheehan are both out leaving Rattler without their top two weapons in the passing game. The offensive line is banged up with starters Cesar Ruiz out and Lucas Patrick questionable. Even their joker threat Taysom Hill is doubtful to play which likely removes their short-yardage do-it-all threat. Rattler is going to struggle with the Broncos great pass rush. New Orleans ranks 29th in the league in Passing Blocking Win Rate — and they have given up 78 pressures on the quarterback in their last four games which is the fifth worst in the NFL during that span. The Saints offense has the second fewest gains of 20 or more yards in the league. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and the Broncos have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (311) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-3) had won three games in a row before their 23-16 loss at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. New Orleans (2-4) has lost four games in a row after their 51-27 loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Chargers last week coming off their bye week and getting healthier against their AFC West rivals. In this turnaround game on a short week, Denver’s defense is — by far — the best unit in this contest. With the Saints absolutely ravaged by injuries, head coach Sean Payton will manage this game effectively and limit big mistakes to help his rookie quarterback Bo Nix win this game. The Broncos' defense ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. Denver ranks fourth in the league in pressure rate — and in the last four weeks, they lead the NFL with 93 pressures on the quarterback. The Saints will privilege running the football with rookie Spencer Rattler making his second professional start tonight. The Broncos are second in the NFL in stuffing the run at or behind the line of scrimmage. Overall, Denver is giving up only 284.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 16.0 Points-Per-Game. Nix is doing his job in limiting mistakes and making smart plays with his arm or his legs. He has seven touchdowns and only one interception in his last four games. He threw two touchdown passes last week and added another 61 yards on the ground from six carries. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road following a loss. And while they suffered a -2 net turnover margin against the Chargers, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home following a loss. The Saints are simply ravaged by injuries right now. Quarterback Derek Carr is out once again which means Rattler will be under center. The offense gained only 303 total yards last week against the Buccaneers in his first career start. Starting wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Sheehan are both out leaving Rattler without their top two weapons in the passing game. The offensive line is banged up with starters Cesar Ruiz out and Lucas Patrick questionable. Even their joker threat Taysom Hill is doubtful to play which likely removes their short-yardage do-it-all threat. Rattler is going to struggle with the Broncos great pass rush. New Orleans ranks 29th in the league in Passing Blocking Win Rate — and they have given up 78 pressures on the quarterback in their last four games which is the fifth worst in the NFL during that span. The Saints offense has the second-fewest gains of 20 or more yards in the league. And after a good start to the season, the defense has plummeted quickly. New Orleans has allowed 457.3 YPG in their last four games — and their last two opponents have generated 319 passing YPG against them. Their run defense ranks third-worst in the league in stuff rate at or behind the line of scrimmage. Kansas City and Tampa Bay generated 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry against them in their last two games. The Saints stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home in the first half of the season. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints are giving up 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry this season — and the Broncos have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who are surrendering 4.5 or more YPC. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with Denver Broncos (311) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 loss to Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in London on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo only managed 276 yards of offense against the Texans. Josh Allen played his worst game of the season by completing just 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards. Frankly, he looks injured and not playing close to 100% health. He has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last 59 pass attempts. Now he faces a tough Jets defense that has held him to just a 74 Passer Rating in his last four games against them. The Bills offense may also be without wide receiver Khalil Shakir and running back James Cook who are listed as questionable with the injuries. As it is, Buffalo has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. And while they had a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight Unders when on the road as the favorite. They have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Bills defense has been playing well. That unit ranks tenth in the NFL in Defensive DVOA against the pass using the metrics of the Football Outsiders. They also rank sixth in the league in fewest plays of 20 or more yards allowed. New York only gained 254 yards last week which led to the firing of head coach Robert Saleh and the removal of Nathaniel Hackett of the play-calling duties. Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Todd Downing is the new play-caller — but two quick things about him. First, his offenses with the Titans were not statistically very good — and the team’s fans were overjoyed when he was let go after his second season in 2022. He has done little to justify getting this “promotion.” Second, if the hope is that more pre-snap motion and other bells and whistles will unlock this offense, Downing is not the coach to install these additions since he rarely deployed these concepts with Tennessee or his previous offensive coordinator stint with the Raiders. Besides, Aaron Rodgers does not want to use pre-snap motion: right or wrong, he wants the defense stable so he can better dissect what they are going to do. Payton Manning preferred this approach as well — although I wonder if he would still feel that way as more and more defenses have developed sophisticated methods to disguise their schemes before the snap. Even if Rodgers suddenly wanted the Kyle Shanahan offense, there was never enough time to install these changes effectively. The bigger problem for the offense is Rodgers' declining skills and the suspect play of the offensive line. Since 2022, Rodgers has an 88.6 Passer Rating with zero 300-yard passing games. And in his last four games against Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott, he has only five touchdown passes with four interceptions and six sacks. His health is a concern as well — he injured his ankle in London last week but tried to play through it late in the game. In his last two games, he has been sacked eight times and taken another 21 hits. The 40-year-old is losing to Father Time. But this Jets’ defense remains outstanding. They lead the league by holding their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play. They rank second in the NFL by allowing only 255.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 133.6 passing YPG. They are tied for fifth by giving up just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. The Jets have played four straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog of seven points or less. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. New York has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals. And while the Bills are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the New York Jets (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (287) minus the point spread versus the New York Jets (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 loss at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 loss to Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in London on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a gut-check game for both these divisional rivals. The situation says to take the Jets — but Buffalo is just as desperate to get things going again after losing two games in a row. The critics of head coach Sean McDermott for attempted three pass plays deep in the Bills’ end of the field late in the game against the Texans are ankle-biters. While I would have probably run the ball once to create some room for Josh Allen to make some passes while not standing in his end zone — and help out an eventual punt, if necessary — even running the ball three times and forcing Houston to burn all three of their timeouts was going to give C.J. Stroud enough time to get within field goal range. The Bills needed a first down — so keeping the ball in the hands of his superstar Allen makes sense. He looked hurt last week — but he should be a bit better this week with the opportunity to rest. Running back James Cook claims he is going to play tonight despite his turf toe. Curtis Samuel is ready to take more of a role in the passing game if Khalil Shakir cannot go. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as a favorite of up to seven points. And in their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range, the Bills have covered the point spread in 10 of those games. The culture McDermott has built in Buffalo is much better than with New York. The Jets are a hot mess. It looks like Aaron Rodgers got head coach Robert Saleh fired. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich is the interim head coach — and he used his momentary position of leverage to take the play-calling duties away from Nathaniel Hackett, yet who will still stay employed by the team to do who knows what besides being Rodgers buddy. Rodgers denies all this — as if lying is an impossible act when speaking to NFL “insiders.” Maybe I have this situation wrong — but how many of Rodgers’ teammates will it take to believe that he is the de-facto general manager of the team for more dissension to mount? Saleh was popular in the locker room!  Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Todd Downing is the new play-caller — but two quick things about him. First, his offenses with the Titans were not statistically very good — and the team’s fans were overjoyed when he was let go after his second season in 2022. He has done little to justify getting this “promotion.” Second, if the hope is that more pre-snap motion and other bells and whistles will unlock this offense, Downing is not the coach to install these additions since he rarely deployed these concepts with Tennessee or his previous offensive coordinator stint with the Raiders. Besides, Rodgers does not want to use pre-snap motion: right or wrong, he wants the defense stable so he can better dissect what they are going to do. Payton Manning preferred this approach as well — although I wonder if he would still feel that way as more and more defenses have developed sophisticated methods to disguise their schemes before the snap. Even if Rodgers suddenly wanted the Kyle Shanahan offense, there was never enough time to install these changes effectively. The bigger problem for the offense is Rodgers' declining skills and the suspect play of the offensive line. Since 2022, Rodgers has an 88.6 Passer Rating with zero 300-yard passing games. And in his last four games against Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott, he has only five touchdown passes with four interceptions and six sacks. His health is a concern as well — he injured his ankle in London last week but tried to play through it late in the game. In his last two games, he has been sacked eight times and taken another 21 hits. The 40-year-old is losing to Father Time. The Jets have played four straight Unders -- but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: I am well aware that NFL teams turning to an interim head coach have covered the point spread in 17 of the last 30 games in the first week after sacking the previous coach. I have often endorsed those sides! In this instance — with the Rodgers’ dynamic (and health), with Hackett still in the building, the pressure of being at home, and the absurdity of hiring a popular head coach whose defense has been playing great — I am skeptical that this is the move that (once again) finally compels this team to flip the switch and live to their preseason hype. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (287) minus the point spread versus the New York Jets (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 41-38 loss at home to Baltimore in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 29-20 upset victory at Seattle as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I looked very closely at the Over for this game — how could one not after the Bengals have seen four straight games with at least 51 combined points scored with them scoring 35 Points-Per-Game in their last three with the wide receivers back and healthy. But I also have my own database of empirical NFL angles to help inform my decisions — and in the last 47 NFL games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range involving one team that has played four or more games in a row with 50 or more combined points scored, 37 of those games finished Under the Total. Even with my long reports, I leave much of the evidence out that helped form my conclusion — and I rarely invoke empirical situational angles like this since so often it is just data-mining. But in this instance, I found it highly relevant. Why didn’t the books place the Total in the 50s given Cincinnati’s recent run? Well, as I argued when proffering the question as to why the Los Angeles Chargers were favored despite being on the road with a losing streak facing a home team on a winning streak, because the Chargers are going to cover the point spread — or, in this instance because tonight’s game is likely going to be lower scoring. New York had not scored more than 21 points in their first four games before last week — and they held the ball for an uncharacteristic 37:22 minutes in that game. Now this Giants team will be without their top wide receiver Malik Nabors and their top running back Devin Singletary for this game. They are averaging only 321.4 total Yards-Per-Game. But the New York defense is playing quite well by holding their opponents to just 316.0 total YPG which is resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Head coach Brian Daboll wants to win the time of possession battle — and his offense has been on the field an average of 32:22 minutes per game this season. This dynamic has helped the Giants play 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and the goal will certainly be to keep Joe Burrow off the field tonight. Furthermore, New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at home. The Giants are allowing their opponents to generate 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry -- and the Bengals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are allowing 4.5 or more Yards-Per-Carry. Cincinnati has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when playing on field turf. The Bengals' subpar defense includes them allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 151.4 rushing YPG. They are losing the time of possession battle this season — so don’t expect tons of Cincinnati possessions tonight which will help keep the score down.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (285) and the New York Giants (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

 At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (286) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (285). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 29-20 upset victory at Seattle as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 41-38 loss at home to Baltimore in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: This Giants team will be without their top wide receiver Malik Nabors and their top running back Devin Singletary for this game — but both of these players were unavailable last week in their upset win on the road against Seattle. Head coach Brian Daboll wants to win the time of possession battle — and his offense has been on the field an average of 32:22 minutes per game this season. He has Daniel Jones playing better at quarterback this season by, first and foremost, limiting his mistakes. He has thrown only two interceptions and has not lost a fumble in his five games this season. New York is getting better play on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The offensive line was battered with injuries last season, so being healthy this year has helped the cohesion of that group. The defensive line is much better after trading for Brian Burns in the offseason. The Giants return home to play for just the second time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games at MetLife Stadium. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC. And in their last 10 games in October, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of those contests. Cincinnati is scoring 35 Points-Per-Game in their last three games with a healthy wide receiver corps again — but their defense has been a disaster by allowing 29.0 PPG which is the second-highest mark in the league. The Bengals' subpar defense includes them allowing opposing rushers to generate 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 151.4 rushing YPG. They are losing the time of possession battle this season — and this plays right into Daboll’s desire to shorten this game by burning time off the clock. At first glance in my preseason deep dive on this team, I wanted to consider the Bengals on the short list of teams to overtake Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. Quarterback Joe Burrow was slowed by a calf injury suffered early in last year’s training camp that helps explain Cincinnati’s 1-3 start where they generated only 12.3 Points-Per-Game. Burrow only completed 576% of his passes for 728 yards during that stretch. But after recovering, he completed 72.5% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in his next seven games before suffering his season-ending wrist injury. I remain concerned about an inconsistent offensive line with many criticizing the lack of fundamentals taught by offensive line coach Frank Pollack. And while running back Joe Mixon was probably past his prime, do the Bengals have enough talent at that position with free agent signee Zack Moss and second-year pro Chase Brown who only had 44 carries last season? Then there is the defense that ranked 31st in the league by allowing 374.6 Yards-Per-Game. In hindsight, losing safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell took away too much leadership (and play-calling) for an inexperienced defensive backfield that was starting rookies or second-year players by the end of the season. Covering for their mistakes could explain the down seasons for linebackers Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt. After committing only 76 missed tackles in 2022-23, the Bengals missed 124 tackles last year, the second-highest jump in the NFL. Cincinnati has spent eight of their last ten draft picks in the first three rounds on the defensive side of the ball — so perhaps a growth spurt is coming from this investment in talent. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is as good as it gets. They brought back Bell in free agency while adding former Baltimore free safety Geno Stone to fortify the group with veterans. And while the Bengals faced 11 of 17 teams that ranked in the top 12 in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings, they still got outscored by 1.1 PPG and outgained by -55.7 net YPG. After more than a quarter into the season, the defense remains a significant problem. Could they count on a +10 net turnover margin again? Nope — so far they have five turnovers and five takeaways. Will team cohesion take a hit with both wide receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Trey Hendrickson wanting new deals? The team chemistry looks fragile with Burrow being caught on camera marching into the coach’s office after a recent loss. I concluded that the seeds are certainly in place for why this team once again sputters — and an overtime loss to Baltimore to see them drop to 1-4 has this team starting into the abyss. Their backers seem to think they can flip this switch as a road favorite of more than a field goal despite their only victory being against Carolina. The Giants think they can win this game against a struggling team.

FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (286) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (285). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (277) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (278). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 17-10 loss at home to Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog back on September 29th. Denver (3-2) has won three games in a row after their 34-18 win at home against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Why is a team on the road who is on a two-game losing streak favored against a home team with a better record who is on a three-game winning streak? Well, the short answer is because they are going to cover the point spread. Here is the longer answer. Los Angeles has the better quarterback in Justin Herbert and the better roster overall — and they are coming off their bye week in much better health. Injuries have hit this team hard early on — especially on the offensive line with both left tackle Rashawn Slater and rookie right tackle Joe Alt having to miss the game against the Chiefs. But the Chargers were still competitive with the two-time defending Super Bowl champions. Herbert is not 100% either with his lingering ankle injury — so getting the week off should really help him. Head coach Jim Harbaugh gets both his starting tackles back for this game — and that can only help running back J.K. Dobbins. The former Ohio State star is finally healthy and demonstrating his vast potential by generating 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Los Angeles’ offensive numbers are not very good — but they should be taken with a grain of salt given their injuries. Their defensive numbers, on the other hand, are quite impressive so far this season despite the offense not offering much help. The Chargers lead the NFL by allowing only 12.5 Points-Per-Game and 282.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They also lead the league with their opponents only scoring touchdowns on 28.6% of their visits inside the Red Zone. These numbers are validated by the analytics at Football Outsiders that rank their defense as the second best in the league in Defensive DVOA. That unit gets safety, Derwin James, back as well after he was suspended last week for the Kansas City game. This team should take a step or two forward schematically under Harbaugh and his coaching staff coming off the bye week. And the veterans will remember that the Broncos won both games against them last season. Denver beat the Raiders last week despite only gaining 289 yards of offense and getting outgained by -41 net yards. Their 100-yard interception returned for a touchdown was a 14-point turnaround in that game — and the Broncos benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin. Head coach Sean Payton is finding success employing the Harbaugh formula (and Bill Belichick, for that matter) of limiting mistakes, relying on their defense, and waiting for their opponents to start doing dumb stuff. The Denver defense ranks fourth in Defensive DVOA. But the offense is a bee-bee gun with rookie Bo Nix under center. To his credit, he has not thrown an interception in his last three games. But he is averaging only 5.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in his last four games which continues the concern I had about him in the preseason. Nix was praised for his football lQ and the operation of a rhythm-and-timing offense with the Oregon Ducks last season that relied on his great accuracy. That may be another way of saying he lacks a big arm (and neither did Brees when compared to Dan Marino). But 152 of Nix’s passes last year in college were at or behind the line of scrimmage and another 128 pass attempts were no more than five air yards. That kinda sounds like Russell Wilson last year whose average depth of target continued to decline but whose strong-armed moon shots to Courtland Sutton could make the final raw numbers look better by the end of the game. Nix does not have that moonshot in his arsenal which seems to put a hard ceiling on the potential of this offense. Denver ranks 29th in the league this season by averaging only 1.49 Points-Per-Drive. Overall, they are generating only 270.6 total YPG which is resulting in 19.2 PPG. The offense ranks 25th in Offensive DVOA. And while the defensive numbers have been great, they have played the New York Jets, Las Vegas, and Tampa Bay in their three wins along with Pittsburgh. The most potent offense they have defended was Seattle in Week One. Under Sean Payton, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 12 games played on grass in the Payton regime.

FINAL TAKE: Harbaugh’s teams in the NFL have covered the point spread in 22 of their 36 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their 18 games on the road when favored by up to six points. His teams have also covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games played in October. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (277) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (278). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (206) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (205). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-24 loss at San Diego State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. Boise State (4-1) has won three games in a row after their loss to Oregon with their 62-30 victory as a 28-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Hawai’i could be 4-1 with just a couple of breaks. Against both UCLA and then the Aztecs last week, they blew fourth quarter leads in eventual losses by three-point losses. They outgained San Diego State last week by +27 net yards. Quarterback Brayden Schager has seen his wide receivers drop 18 passes which is the most in the FBS. The Rainbow Warriors are a pretty good football team that is being lifted up by a surprisingly stout defense. Hawai’i ranks 12th in the nation Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They rank 14th in the FBS in Havoc Rate. Against FBS opponents, they are allowing just 5.5 Yards-Per-Play which ranks in the top 60 in the nation. They are holding their opponents to just 309.4 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 19.0 Points-Per-Game. The Rainbow Warriors are outscoring their opponents by +5.2 PPG and outgaining them by +50.8 net YPG. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games off a win by 17 or more points. The Broncos are lead by running back Ashton Jeanty who is a leading early candidate to win the Heisman Trophy — but they are vulnerable on defense. The Aggies gained 507 yards against them including 371 yards in the air from a 9.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Georgia Southern scored 45 points against them. They rank 106 in Pass Success Rate Allowed and outside the top 100 in Expected Points Allowed per Opponent Pass Attempt. They rank 92nd in Explosiveness Allowed. They also rank 82nd in Finishing Drives Allowed — and the Rainbow Warriors rank a solid 40th in Finishing Drives. Overall, Boise State is surrendering 402.6 YPG which is resulting in 30.0 PPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road in the first half of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 21 points. Led by Jeanty, the Boise State offense is explosive — but he did not play in the second half last week after getting rested in the second half earlier in the year against Portland State. With a big showdown with UNLV on deck, Jeanty is not likely to play if the Broncos are cruising — and that should set up, at worst, a decent back door cover opportunity when considering the state of the Boise State defense.

FINAL TAKE: Under head coach Tommy Chang, the Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games as an underdog against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents with two outright upset victories. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout is with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (206) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (188) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (187). THE SITUATION: LSU (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 42-10 victory against South Alabama as a 21-point favorite back on September 28th. Mississippi (5-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season to win at South Carolina by a 27-3 score as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: LSU has the benefit of the extra week to rest and prepare for this game. Head coach Brian Kelly’s teams have covered the point spread in 15 of the last 23 games with the benefit of the bye week. The Tigers offense is transitioning to a new run blocking scheme which will play to the strengths of freshman Caden Durham who is emerging as the team’s best running back. He rushed for 128 yards on just seven carries against the Jaguars two weeks ago. A more effective rushing attack will only help quarterback Garrett Nussmeier in the passing game. He is completing 70% of his passes and averaging 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he is completing over 50% of his passes of ten or more air yards. As it is, LSU ranks fifth in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after winning their previous game at home. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home after a win by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The home team has covered the point spread in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams — including Ole Miss’ 55-49 upset win at home as a 2.5-point underdog on September 30th last season. LSU has won 15 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when attempting to avenge a loss to their opponent. 10* CFB Ole Miss-USC ABC-TV Special with the LSU Tigers (188) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (187). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (142) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (141). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (4-1) lost their first game of the season last Saturday in a 19-14 upset loss at Arkansas as a 14-point favorite. Florida (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 24-13 upset victory against Central Florida as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Much of the shine has been taken off this Tennessee team after their supposed high-powered offense only managed to score 39 combined points in their last two games after putting up 191 combined points in their first three contests. But their last two games have been on the road against two of the better defenses in the nation against Oklahoma and Arkansas last week. Those are tough assignments for any quarterback — but especially for a freshman QB like Nico Iamaleava playing in hostile environments for the first time. Returning home should help the talented rookie where he has completed 32 of 44 passes (72.7%) with four touchdown passes, no interceptions, just one sack, and an 11.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. On the road, he has completed 46 of 73 passes (63.0%) with three touchdown passes but two interceptions and seven sacks along with a 7.7 YPA average. Now Iamaleava gets to throw against a suspect Gators 'defense that ranks 86th in Pass Success Rate Allowed. This is a nice get-right game for the Volunteers who have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home in the first half of the season. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Tennessee was probably a bit overrated after their first three games at home — but this team is different under head coach Josh Heupel because they are finally legit on the defensive side of the football. The Volunteers are one of five teams in the nation holding their opponents to single digits with the 9.4 Points-Per-Game they are allowing. They rank second in the FBS by giving up just 227.4 total Yards-Per-Game. The tempo-free analytics are also quite good for this defense. They lead the nation in Rush Success Rate Allowed. They rank second in Finishing Drives Allowed. They rank sixth in Havoc Rate. They rank 36th in Pass Success Rate Allowed — and while that is still pretty, pretty good, Florida is probably not the team to take advantage of this relative weakness. Florida does rank 20th in Pass Success Rate — but their embattled head coach Billy Napier is now rotating quarterbacks Graham Mertz and D.J. Lagway. Napier looked like he was about to get fired this month before Mississippi State and Central Florida popped up on the schedule. Both of those teams are struggling (especially the Bulldogs) — and that does place a grain or two of salt on their recent passing numbers. I worry about quarterbacks finding their rhythm when they are getting rotated in and out. As it is, the Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home. Florida has a good pass rush — but their defense gets burned if the rush fails. The Gators rank outside the top 100 teams in the nation in Opponent Quarterback Rating, Rush Success Rate Allowed, and Opponent Third Down Rate.

FINAL TAKE: The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Volunteers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home as a favorite. 20* CFB Florida-Tennessee ESPN Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (142) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (106) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (105). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss against the New York Giants as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-23 upset loss against Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Seahawks are committed to running the ball in this game after only rushing the ball 11 times last week against the Giants. They did generate 102 yards on the ground — but 72 yards of that production came from quarterback Geno Smith. This contributed to Seattle’s offense being on the field for only 22:38 minutes in that game. Rookie offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb admitted he lost sight of this imbalance after the game — I listened to first-year head coach Mike Macdonald confirm that the offense needs to get back to running the ball this week. It certainly makes sense for the Seahawks to attempt to burn seconds off the clock and slow this game down against this 49ers offense. Expect a heavy dose of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet tonight against a Niners defense that has been vulnerable against the run. San Francisco is allowing opposing rushers to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Running the ball will also help protect their banged-up defense which is still without defensive end Uchena Nwosu and defensive tackle Byron Murphy. This Seahawks defense has improved under Macdonald who coordinated two great defenses with the Baltimore Ravens the previous two seasons. After ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders, they have improved to 13th in that category this season. They are giving up only 311.0 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 22.8 Points-Per-Game. In their two games at home, Seattle is holding their guests to just 285.3 YPG which is resulting in only 17.3 PPG. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the first half of the season. San Francisco misses Christian McCaffrey as the ultimate chess piece to make the Kyle Shanahan offense operate at a high level of efficiency. The Niners rank 30th in the NFL by only scoring touchdowns in 41% of their drives inside the Red Zone. Brock Purdy’s completion rate of 65.6% is a career-low for him. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road in the first half of the season. And while the Seahawks are generating 264.0 passing Yards-Per-Game, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams averaging 235 or more passing YPG — and they are without safety Talanoa Hufanga to injury who plays a critical role in their secondary.

FINAL TAKE: This is a bounce-back spot for both teams in a crucial divisional game early in the season. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Expect a close game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (106) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-23 upset loss against Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss against the New York Giants as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks are committed to running the ball in this game after only rushing the ball 11 times last week against the Giants. They did generate 102 yards on the ground — but 72 yards of that production came from quarterback Geno Smith. This contributed to Seattle’s offense being on the field for only 22:38 minutes in that game. Rookie offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb admitted he lost sight of this imbalance after the game — I listened to first-year head coach Mike Macdonald confirm that the offense needs to get back to running the ball this week. It certainly makes sense for the Seahawks to attempt to burn seconds off the clock and slow this game down against this 49ers offense. But the Seahawks also need to run the ball to neutralize the huge advantage the Niners' defense has in this game with Nick Bosa. Seattle is without right tackles Abraham Lucas and George Fant due to injuries which means they will start Stone Forsythe once again at the position. Forsythe is last in the NFL by being responsible for 20 Quarterback Hurries and 25 QB Pressures. Running the ball will also help protect their banged-up defense that is still without defensive end Uchena Nwosu and defensive tackle Byron Murphy — and they will be without cornerback Tariq Woolen tonight. This Seahawks defense has improved under Macdonald who coordinated two great defenses with the Baltimore Ravens the previous two seasons. After ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders, they have improved to 13th in that category this season. They are giving up only 311.0 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting 22.8 Points-Per-Game. In their two games at home, Seattle is holding their guests to just 285.3 YPG which is resulting in only 17.3 PPG. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home at Lumen Field. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range. Additionally, Seattle has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West rivals. And while the 49ers are generating 6.5 Yards-Per-Play, the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. San Francisco misses Christian McCaffrey as the ultimate chess piece to make the Kyle Shanahan offense operate at a high level of efficiency. The Niners rank 30th in the NFL by only scoring touchdowns in 41% of their drives inside the Red Zone. Brock Purdy’s completion rate of 65.6% is a career-low for him. San Francisco had a -2 net turnover margin in their loss to the Cardinals — and they have then played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. The 49ers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total with the number at 49.5 or higher. San Francisco is only scoring 20.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Niners defense continues to play at a high level this season. They are holding their opponents to just 307.8 YPG — and they rank fifth in Defensive DVOA.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total when favored by seven points or less — and the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (105) and the Seattle Seahawks (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 26-24 loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans raced out of the gates this season by scoring 47 and 44 points. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brought the offensive into the 21st century by significantly increasing the usage of pre-snap motion and play-action passing. Defenses caught up a bit — and they are now dealing with several injuries on their offensive line — but this unit is in better shape with Kubiak designing the schemes and calling the plays than they were under previous offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. The Saints’ defense is good — they rank second in overall DVOA Defense while ranking third in DVOA Pass Defense. They did not allow an offensive touchdown against the Falcons last week while outgaining them by +51 net yards. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road after losing on the road in their last game. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when getting up to seven points as the underdog. Kansas City only managed 329 yards of offense last week with the offense now without wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco to injury. Rice had emerged as Mahomes’ favorite target in his second season in the league. Even with Rice healthy the majority of the time, he is averaging only 226 passing Yards-Per-Game which would be a career-low. He has only six touchdown passes — and he has already thrown five interceptions. As a team, the Chiefs have seven turnovers in their four games. They rank just 15th in the NFL by generating 5.7 Yards-Per-Play. They rank third to last in the league in Rushing Explosiveness. Without the injured Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and now Rice, there is simply no juice to this offensive attack — a problem they have had since not resigning Tyreek Hill. Mahomes ranks 25th in the league in adjusted Yards-Per-Attempt. He ranks 32nd of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks by averaging only 5.8 intended air yards per pass attempt. And his 5.4 average depth of target yards per pass attempt ranks last of all starting quarterbacks.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs are 18-31-2 ATS in their last 51 games when favored by more than three points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Saints (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 26-24 loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints raced out of the gates this season by scoring 47 and 44 points. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak brought the offensive into the 21st century by significantly increasing the usage of pre-snap motion and play-action passing. But defenses quickly caught up with those schematic changes. And they also lost center Erick McCoy to an injury which was a devastating loss. Pro Football Focus graded him as the top offensive line in the NFL after the first two games of the season. In their last two games, New Orleans has scored only 36 combined points. Quarterback Derek Carr averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first two games with five touchdown passes and just one interception. But in his last two games, he has averaged only 6.1 YPA with just one touchdown pass and two interceptions. His offensive line is really banged up now. That unit is on their third-string center with Shane Lemieux out with an injury — it will be Connor McGovern snapping to Carr tonight. Starting right guard Cesar Ruiz is also out for tonight’s game and starting left guard Lucas Patrick is questionable. Swiss army knife Taysom Hill is also out for tonight’s game with an injury. Now Carr faces Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who is very familiar with him from preparing to play against him for years when he played for the Raiders. Spags has coached against Carr in 17 games — his defenses have sacked him 41 times while forcing 21 turnovers against him. This Kubiak offense for the Saints is leaning heavily on Alvin Kamara and the running game. New Orleans leads the NFL by averaging 34.5 rushing attempts per game — and they are second-to-last in the league by averaging only 25.3 passing attempts per game. Now the Saints face the stout Kansas City run defense that ranks second in DVOA Run Defense using the metrics of the Football Outsiders and third in the NFL with opposing rushers averaging just 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. This commitment to rushing is also keeping the opposing offense off the field for almost 33 minutes per game. The Saints’ defense is good — they rank second in overall DVOA Defense while ranking third in DVOA Pass Defense. They did not allow an offensive touchdown against the Falcons last week. New Orleans has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass (as opposed to the field turf at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). They have also played 7 of the 10 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Kansas City only managed 329 yards of offense last week with the offense now without wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco to injury. Rice had emerged as Mahomes’ favorite target in his second season in the league. But the Chiefs’ defense remains outstanding as they are only allowing 326.8 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 18.0 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after beating an AFC West rival. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints are generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and Kansas City has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams who are averring 5.65 or more YPP. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (474) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-2) evened their record at 2-2 with a 20-15 victory in New York against the Giants as a 5-point favorite last Thursday. Pittsburgh (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-24 upset loss at Indianapolis last Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys only generated 293 yards of offense in their win against the Giants last week. Dallas cannot run the ball — and it is impacted everything they do. They are generating just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 75.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They ranked 14th in the NFL last season by averaging 112.9 rushing YPG. This is putting the onus on quarterback Dan Prescott to do more with his arm — but he has been much more effective when playing at home at AT&T Stadium. Last season, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes at home with 20 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while averaging 308.8 passing YPG and generating a 120.0 Quarterback Rating in eight regular season games at home. But in his nine games on the road, his completion percentage dropped to 65.9% while averaging only 227.3 passing YPG with 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions and generating a 92.4 QBR. On the road this season, the Cowboys are only averaging 279.0 YPG — and now wide receiver Brandin Cooks is injured reserve. Dallas stays on the road for the second straight week — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road after playing on the road the previous week. They have also played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Pittsburgh played their best game on offense in a losing effort last week. They are generating only 317.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 18.8 PPG. But they continue to play great defense under head coach Mike Tomlin as they are holding their opponents to just 261.8 total YPG which is resulting in just 13.3 PPG. The Steelers return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (474) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-24 upset loss at Indianapolis last Sunday. Dallas (2-2) evened their record at 2-2 with a 20-15 victory in New York against the Giants as a 5-point favorite last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh fell behind early and were staring at a 17-0 deficit early in the second quarter before almost coming all the way back to steal that game. The Steelers did outgain the Colts by +46 net yards with their offense generating 404 yards. Justin Fields may have played his game at quarterback for both the Steelers and in his career by completing 22 of 34 passes for 312 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He added another 55 rushing yards and scored twice his legs. Credit goes to offensive coordinator Arthur Smith who has Fields making quicker decisions in the passing game. The loss presents head coach Mike Tomlin a good opportunity to have an attentive audience this week — and that is something that he typically takes successful advantage. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have cocked the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home after a straight-up loss. They return home to play for just the second time all season after three of their first four games were on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when the Total is listed in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the NFC. Dallas beat the Giants despite losing the first down battle and getting outgained by -10 net yards. The Cowboys only generated 293 yards of offense in that game. Dallas cannot run the ball — and it is impacted everything they do. They are generating just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in 75.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They ranked 14th in the NFL last season by averaging 112.9 rushing YPG. This is putting the onus on quarterback Dan Prescott to do more with his arm — but he has been much more effective when playing at home at AT&T Stadium. Last season, Prescott completed 73.3% of his passes at home with 20 touchdown passes and only three interceptions while averaging 308.8 passing YPG and generating a 120.0 Quarterback Rating in eight regular season games at home. But in his nine games on the road, his completion percentage dropped to 65.9% while averaging only 227.3 passing YPG with 14 touchdown passes and six interceptions and generating a 92.4 QBR. Prescott has an 8-8 record straight-up in his last 16 games on the road — and he has an 8-13 record in his last 21 games against teams from the AFC. On the road this season, the Cowboys are only averaging 279.0 YPG. And then there is the matter of the declining Dallas defense. Everything seemed great after their opening week win against Cleveland. But since that game, the Cowboys are allowing 29.0 PPG (29th in the NFL), 397.0 YPG (last), 6.6 Yards-Per-Play (last), and have only registered 2.0. sacks. That unit will not have its best player, Micah Parsons, who is out with an ankle injury. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks is injured reserve. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog of up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is getting outscored by -1.7 PPG and getting outgained by -24.5 net YPG this season. On the other hand, the Steelers are outscoring their opponents by +5.5 PPG and outgaining their opponents by +56.0 net YPG. Furthermore, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (467) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (468). THE SITUATION: Arizona (1-3) has lost two games in a row after their 42-14 upset loss against Washington as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 30-13 victory at home against New England as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have made several teams look bad early on in this season. Arizona had lost one-possession games at Buffalo and against Detroit prior to that loss — and those were both teams that won playoff games last season. Quarterback Kyler Murray was missing tight end Trey McBride who was in the concussion protocol last week. McBride cleared the protocol this week and was a full participant in practice — but he did pop up on the injury report yesterday with a rib injury. He is listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision but ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported last night that he is expected to play. McBride emerged as a favorite target for Murray in the second half of last season. The Cardinals offense had been humming this season before stalling without McBride last week. The second-year pro had 14 catches from 21 targets in his first three games. Running back James Conner has been spectacular leading a ground game that ranks fifth in the NFL by averaging 153.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Arizona is scoring touchdowns on 72.7% of their drives inside the red zone which ranks tied for fourth in the league. They have generated 29 big plays (rushing plays of 10 or more yards or pass plays of 20 or more yards) which is the sixth most in the league. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points. And while Arizona is generating 6.0 Yards-Per-Play, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams who are averaging 5.65 or more YPP.  The Niners are still banged up dealing with several injuries. Running back Christian McCaffrey is still out while tight end George Kittle and linebacker Fred Warner are questionable and may be limited if they do play. As it is, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher including failing to cover the point spread in five of those last seven circumstances. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after the first month of the season. And in their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, they have failed to cover the point spread 8 times.

FINAL TAKE: With only one win on the season, this is a critical game for the Cardinals — especially against an NFC West rival that embarrassed them by 16 and 19 points last season. Scouting this team had to be one of the highest priorities for head coach Jonathan Gannon in the offseason — and Arizona has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 28 trips to San Francisco to play the Niners. Expect a close game. 25* NFC West Underdog of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (467) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (452) minus the points versus the New York Jets (451). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-0) has won their first four games of the season after their 31-29 upset victory at Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-2) looks to rebound from their 10-9 loss at home to Denver as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Vikings are the technical home team with this game being played on a neutral field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: The situation says to take the Jets after their ugly loss against the Broncos where they generated only 248 yards of offense. But I am skeptical this team can just flip the switch. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and I see that as a failure of head coach Robert Saleh to refocus his team. He continues to bicker with Aaron Rodgers in the media — this time it was about Rodgers’ use of cadence which contributed to several false start penalties. Rodgers also got banged up in that game — he was sacked five times and was hit another 14 times. He has a sore knee and a hamstring injury but will try to play through those injuries. Now he faces a Vikings defense that has already resisted 16 sacks and hit the quarterback another 31 times. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams from the NFC. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after pulling off an upset victory. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Weeks Five through Nine under head coach Kevin O’Connell — and the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after the first month of the season under Saleh. 8* NFL NY Jets-Minnesota London Calling Special with the Minnesota Vikings (452) minus the points versus the New York Jets (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 44-41 victory against Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (3-1) comes off a 23-10 upset victory at Utah as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It is easy to see why many bettors expect this game to be a shootout — but the deeper analytics suggest these respective offenses are not quite as explosive as some of their final scores indicate. The Red Raiders may be scoring 41.6 Points-Per-Game — but they rank just 42nd in the nation in Rush Success Rate and 63rd in Passing Success Rate. In their only game away from home this season, they scored just 16 points at Washington State. One of their touchdowns last week against the Bearcats came from a 51-yard interception return. Texas Tech has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. They play their second game on the road where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when getting 3.5 to 10 points as an underdog. Arizona only gained 358 yards last week in their victory against the Utes. They have scored no more than 23 points in three of their four contests this season. They rank 102nd in Rush Success Rate and 91st in Pass Success Rate. The Wildcats are settling for too many field goal attempts as they rank 91st in the FBS in Finishing Drives. But their defense has been solid as they are holding their opponents to just 22.5 PPG. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 4 straight home games Under the Total after an upset win against a conference rival. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats are playing their first season under new head coach Brent Brennan who took over for Jedd Fisch who left to take the Washington job. Brennan’s teams going back to his previous tenure at San Jose State have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in expected higher-scoring games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range — and his teams have played 5 straight Unders when playing at home with the Total set in that 63.5-70 point range. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (360) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (359). THE SITUATION: California (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 14-9 loss at Florida State as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 21st. Miami (5-0) remained unbeaten with their 38-34 win against Virginia Tech as a 17.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal was dealing with a bevy of injuries to begin the season — but they still upset Auburn on the road despite those issues. They are getting healthier now coming off the bye week. As it is, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games off a loss on the road to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after playing on the road in their last game. Cal has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games when getting 7.5 to 14 points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games as a double-digit underdog under head coach Justin Wilcox. Miami trailed by a 34-24 score in the fourth quarter to the Hokies before rallying to win that game with a final touchdown with less than two minutes in the game. That Virginia Tech team entered the week with a losing record. The Hurricanes' strength of schedule does not look nearly as formidable from the view of the rearview mirror. Florida is a mess. South Florida has a losing record. Florida A&M and Ball State were easy ones. Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a win against an ACC rival. Fast starts are not uncommon for this team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after the first month of the season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games between Week Five and Week Nine of the season. Furthermore, head coach Mario Cristobal’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games played in October.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. And while the Hurricanes are outscoring their opponents by +35.4 Points-Per-Game, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (360) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (359). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (311) and the Oregon Ducks (312). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 38-7 loss at home against Ohio State as a 23.5-point underdog last Saturday. Oregon (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-13 win at UCLA as a 23.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans had a difficult assignment in attempting to slow down the Buckeyes’ explosive offense last week. Sparty has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. And while they suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Despite the 31-point loss, this team is moving in the right direction once again under first-year head coach Jonathan Smith — and it starts on the defensive side of the football. The slide this program has taken from its peak seasons under head coach Mark Dantonio has been on defense. Sparty was a top-ten statistical defense in 2017 and 2018 while ranking tied for 18th in YPG Allowed in 2019 in Dantonio’s last season. Yet despite previous head coach Mel Tucker being a Nick Sagan protege who had defensive coordinating experience in the NFL and at Georgia, the defense collapsed in his tenure at East Lansing. Michigan State ranked 54th in total defense in his first season with the team before falling to 111th and 100th in his final two full seasons with the team. Only seven of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps on defense returned from last season. Smith brought in 15 transfers to bolster that side of the ball. The back seven should be capable enough, but the defensive line was the biggest question mark heading into the season. That group has held up as Michigan State ranks 18th in Opponent Rush Success Rate and 30th in Opponent Line Yards. They also rank 20th in Opponent Finishing Drives. Outside of Ohio State last week, the Spartans have not allowed more than 24 points. But the offense has struggled after failing to score more than 19 points in three of their four games against FBS opponents. These struggles are not a surprise as the offensive line had only two returning starters and was joined by just three transfers in the offseason. The unit has a mere 31 starts at the FBS level to start the season. The Spartans rank 121st in Line Yards and 81st in Rushing Success Rate. Smith did bring former four-star dual-threat quarterback Aidan Chiles with him from Oregon State — but he takes over an offense that ranked 128th and 125th in the nation by scoring 15.9 Points-Per-Game and generating 289.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Chiles has struggled as Pro Football Focus's 67.7 grade for his performance so far this season indicates. He has 14 turnover-worthy plays already this year. Michigan State has played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Oregon flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Bruins to just 172 yards of offense in their 21-point victory. UCLA’s only touchdown came from a 96-yard interception return. The Ducks have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. The defense has held three of their four opponents to 14 or fewer points so far this season. That unit made a big leap in head coach Dan Lanning’s second year with the program last season by ranking ninth in the FBS by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG and ranking 22nd by limiting these teams to 318.4 YPG. The former Georgia defensive coordinator’s defense allowed -10.9 fewer PPG and -61.2 YPG than in his second season as head coach. The biggest question is on the defensive line with that unit replacing four of the top five players from last season. Lanning brought in two transfers to bolster the depth, but it will be up to some of the 11 blue-chippers he has recruited in the last two seasons to step up and play key roles. On paper, the talent is there — and so far, that group is meeting the challenge. Oregon ranks 26th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate. They also rank fourth in Havoc Rate. The Ducks rank 12 in Opponent Pass Success Rate — so it will be difficult for Chiles to move the the ball with his arm. And while the Oregon offense remains explosive with Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, their 36.0 PPG scoring average and 455.3 total YPG mark are both -8.2 PPG and -76.1 YPG below last season’s numbers with Bo Nix running the offense. The Spartans are giving up only 119.0 rushing YPG — and the Ducks have played 5 straight Unders against teams not allowing more than 120 rushing YPG. Oregon has also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Ducks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 PPG — and Michigan State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. The Spartans have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. 10* CFB Michigan State-Oregon Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (311) and the Oregon Ducks (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Atlanta Falcons (302). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) comes off a 33-16 upset win at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (2-2) evened their record at .500 with a 26-24 win at home against New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers held the Eagles' offense to just 227 yards last week. They are holding their opponents to just 335.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.5 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. The Buccaneers' offense is only generating 319.0 YPG — and they are without right tackle Luke Goedeke to injury and left tackle Tristan Wirfs was limited in practice this week. As it is, the Tampa Bay rushing attack ranks 24th in DVOA using the Football Outsiders metrics — and their running backs are getting hit behind the line of scrimmage at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total in that 42.5-49 point range. They have played 6 straight Unders after playing their last two games at home. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in October. Atlanta scored two defensive touchdowns from a fumble recovering in the end zone in the first quarter and later from a 47-yard interception returned for a touchdown. The Falcons offense only accounted for three field goals. They only gained 315 yards in that game — and they are generating just 309.3 YPG this season which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is struggling as he attempts to recover from his ACL injury last year. His lack of mobility is a significant problem — he leads the NFL by throwing 94% of his passes inside the tackle box in the pocket. While he is completing 70.9% of his passes when not facing additional rushers, his completion percentage drops to 48.5% when blitzed. Additionally, he ranks 30th of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks this season in Success Rate when blitzed. Now here comes the Todd Bowles Tampa Bay defense that blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Buccaneers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Atlanta Falcons (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (302). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) comes off a 33-16 upset win at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (2-2) evened their record at .500 with a 26-24 win at home against New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta scored two defensive touchdowns from a fumble recovering in the end zone in the first quarter and later from a 47-yard interception returned for a touchdown. The Falcons offense only accounted for three field goals. They only gained 315 yards in that game — and they are generating just 309.3 YPG this season which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is struggling as he attempts to recover from his ACL injury last year. His lack of mobility is a significant problem — he leads the NFL by throwing 94% of his passes inside the tackle box in the pocket. While he is completing 70.9% of his passes when not facing additional rushers, his completion percentage drops to 48.5% when blitzed. Additionally, he ranks 30th of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks this season in Success Rate when blitzed. Now here comes the Todd Bowles Tampa Bay defense that blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by six points or less. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored by up to seven points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games between Weeks Five and Nine. The Buccaneers held the Eagles' offense to just 227 yards last week. They are holding their opponents to just 335.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.5 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after a straight-up victory. Now after completing a two-game home stand, they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games against fellow NFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (291) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (292). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-0) remains unbeaten this season with their 24-3 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-1) rebounded from their upset loss at home against Tampa Bay with a 20-13 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road. To compound their challenge tonight, they will be without center Frank Ragnow who is probably the best in the business at that position. His absence further complicates a sluggish Lions offense that is only scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game this season. Detroit is only scoring touchdowns from 38% of their trips inside the Red Zone which ranks 26th in the league. They ranked second in the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate last season. I think this offense has lost its identity. It started in their opening game of the season against the LA Rams when they featured Jameson Williams at wide receiver at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams has not been featured much since. Neither has tight end Sam LaPorta despite his record-breaking season for a rookie tight end last year. The Lions got back to their ground game last week by running the ball 43 times for 187 rushing yards. Who knows what they will do this week? In theory, this diversity could be good — but the scoring and Red Zone numbers suggest they are failing to execute on key plays. After ranking in the top five in Offensive DVOA in the last two seasons, they have dropped to 13th in that metric this season. I am not terribly surprised that this team has taken a step back. For a franchise to win their first playoff game since 1991 and then just miss a shot at the Super Bowl when head coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness backfired (another topic altogether), the foundation may not be nearly as firm now that linebacker Alex Anzalone is declaring this season as “Super Bowl or bust” when this is the first time in a very long time where they will be the chased rather than an afterthought. If things begin to unravel from more injuries (exposing depth problems), more game management mishaps from the biting knees guy to failures to solve the WR2, DE2, or cornerback issues (two rookies and Davis III who has been shaky since winning the Super Bowl with the Buccaneers), and just bad luck courtesy of the Regression Gods, then the wheels could fall off rather quickly. It would not be the first time flash in the pans bottom in this league. And now the injuries are beginning to mount. Besides the Ragnow situation, the Lions will be without defensive end Marcus Davenport, linebacker Derrick Barnes, and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu who are all on the injured list. To make matters worse, second-year safety Brian Branch caught an illness over the weekend and is doubtful to play tonight. Seattle contained the Dolphins offense to just 205 total yards of offense. And while Miami was using Skylar Thompson at quarterback, head coach Mike McDaniel was still not able to scheme ways to get Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle along with all their skill position talent into positions to succeed. Some pundits may scoff at Seattle giving up at least 20 points to both New England and Denver — but the underlying numbers are quite impressive. The Seahawks have not given up more than 310 yards this season while holding their three opponents to just 248.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Overall, they rank 2nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the underlying tempo-free numbers by the Football Outsiders. This defense is dealing with several injuries — most notably with defensive linemen Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy III out for this game. But in head coach Mike Macdonald, we trust to devise schemes that will frustrate a Lions team dealing with their own set of injuries. A telling game from last season was when the Lions scored only six points in their 38-6 loss against Baltimore and that Mike Macdonald operated defense when he was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator. Detroit only gained 337 yards in that game with Goff averaging only 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt from his 53 passes. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spreads in 5 of their last 6 road games against NFC rivals. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (291) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). THE SITUATION: Seattle (3-0) remains unbeaten this season with their 24-3 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-1) rebounded from their upset loss at home against Tampa Bay with a 20-13 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks contained the Dolphins' offense to just 205 total yards of offense. And while Miami was using Skylar Thompson at quarterback, head coach Mike McDaniel was still not able to scheme ways to get Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle along with all their skill position talent into positions to succeed. Some pundits may scoff at Seattle giving up at least 20 points to both New England and Denver — but the underlying numbers are quite impressive. The Seahawks have not given up more than 310 yards this season while holding their three opponents to just 248.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Overall, they rank 2nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the underlying tempo-free numbers by the Football Outsiders. This defense is dealing with several injuries — most notably with defensive linemen Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy III out for this game. But in head coach Mike Macdonald, we trust to devise schemes that will frustrate a Lions team dealing with their own set of injuries. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Detroit will be without center Frank Ragnow who is probably the best in the business at that position. His absence further complicates a sluggish Lions offense that is only scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game this season. Detroit is only scoring touchdowns from 38% of their trips inside the Red Zone which ranks 26th in the league. They ranked second in the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate last season. I think this offense has lost its identity. It started in their opening game of the season against the LA Rams when they featured Jameson Williams at wide receiver at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams has not been featured much since. Neither has tight end Sam LaPorta despite his record-breaking season for a rookie tight end last year. The Lions got back to their ground game last week by running the ball 43 times for 187 rushing yards. Who knows what they will do this week? In theory, this diversity could be good — but the scoring and Red Zone numbers suggest they are failing to execute on key plays. After ranking in the top-five in Offensive DVOA in the last two seasons, they have dropped to 13th in that metric this season. On the other hand, the Lions have improved to 11th in Defensive DVOA so far this season. Detroit played a ton of Overs last year — but they have now played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season as the trends seems to have turned against market expectations.

FINAL TAKE: A telling game from last season was when the Lions scored only six points in their 38-6 loss against Baltimore and that Mike Macdonald-operated defense when he was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator. Detroit only gained 337 yards in that game with Goff averaging only 5.4 Yards-Per-Attempt from his 53 passes. The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 Prime Time games Under the Total with Goff as their starting quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (291) and the Detroit Lions (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the Baltimore Ravens (288). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-0) remains undefeated after their 47-10 victory against Jacksonville as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. Baltimore (1-2) won their opening game of the season last week in a 28-25 victory at Dallas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo has made a strong statement against those pundits who thought they would be taking a step back this season after moving on from several players including wide receiver Stefon Diggs. They held the Jaguars to only 239 yards in their victory on Monday — and they are only giving up 286.7 Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.0 Points-Per-Game for their opponents. But quarterback Josh Allen has struggled against the Ravens by completing only 52% of his passes against them in four games while covering only 188 passing YPG and posted a Passer Rating of 72 in those contests. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The Ravens return home where they have played 12 of their last 19 games at home Under the Total. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 12 of their last 17 games in the first half of the season Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (287) and the Baltimore Ravens (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (288) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (287). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-2) won their opening game of the season last week in a 28-25 victory at Dallas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Buffalo (3-0) remains undefeated after their 47-10 victory against Jacksonville as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore raced out to a 21-6 halftime lead before holding on for the victory against the Cowboys. They generated 456 yards of offense while controlling the time of possession by being on offense for 34:45 minutes of that game. While the 1-2 record so far is a disappointment, the offense has continued to develop in the second year under offensive coordinator Todd Monken. While the Ravens led the NFL in run/pass ratio last season, Monken’s aggressive and creative play-calling opened up their passing attack with quarterback Lamar Jackson setting career highs by completing 67.2% of his passes for 3678 passing yards. So far this season, he is completing 65.6% of his passes — and he is generating 318 total Yards-Per-Game between his arm and his legs.  The Baltimore offense ranked third last season in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush attempt and sixth in EPA per dropback. They were also seventh with 132 Explosive Plays. So far this season, they lead the NFL by generating 430.3 YPG coming from 6.7 Yards-Per-Play which also leads the league. The Ravens return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while the Bills are scoring 37.3 PPG, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams scoring 24 or more PPG. Buffalo has made a strong statement against those pundits who thought they would be taking a step back this season after moving on from several players including wide receiver Stefon Diggs. I was encouraged by those moves and am not surprised by their start. But this is a spot to fade them in this difficult assignment at Baltimore. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning three or more games in a row. I did worry about a defense entering the season that was replacing their All-Pro safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde along with linebacker Leonard Floyd who had 10.5 sacks last year. Their run defense is a concern as they are surrendering 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and now they face the Ravens’ Derrick Henry who was acquired for games like this. The former Tennessee running back is generating 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry and has already reached the end zone four times. The Bills are dealing with injuries with two defensive starters, middle linebacker Terrel Bernard and nickelback Taron Johnson, out for this game. And quarterback Josh Allen has struggled against the Ravens by completing only 52% of his passes against them in four games while covering only 188 passing YPG and posted a Passer Rating of 72 in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and while the Bills are outscoring their opponents by +21.3 net PPG, they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 PPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (288) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.