At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (204) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (203). Iowa (4-1) looks to bounce-back from their 10-3 loss at Michigan last Saturday as a 4-point underdog. Penn State (5-0) remains unbeaten this season with their 35-7 win at home over Purdue last week as a 28.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: The Nittany Lions have risen to the top ten in the national rankings with their undefeated started supported by some nice statistics. But this Penn State has also benefited from a soft early schedule with Pittsburgh probably representing the best team they have faced so far this season. This will be the first ranked opponent that the Nittany Lions have faced this season — and this will be a big challenge for a team that returned only twelve starters from last year’s 9-4 group that lost to Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl by a 27-24 score. Sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford has played well leading the offense — but let’s remember that it was Tommy Stevens that was expected to be the starting quarterback this season until he surprised the program by transferring to Mississippi State in the spring. Clifford is leading a team that has lost twenty-two of their last twenty-four road games against ranked opponents. The Nittany Lions defense has looked very good so far this season after limiting (an injury-riddled) Purdue offense to just 104 total yards. The Boilermakers averaged just 1.86 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after limiting their last opponent to no more than 3.25 YPP. Penn State has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Furthermore, while the Nittany Lions have only allowed 17 combined points over their last three games with those opponents averaging just 209.3 YPG, that is not a good sign for them moving forward. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 225 YPG over their last three contests. Additionally, the Nittany Lions has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on field turf. Iowa should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Turnovers played a huge role last week with senior quarterback Nate Stanley throwing three picks and the Hawkeyes forcing only one turnover themselves. But turnovers can be fickle — and Iowa has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. The Hawkeyes return to Iowa City where they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a game that finished Under the Total. Iowa is also 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games when playing on field turf. They should once again play outstanding defense — they rank 5th in the nation by allowing only 254.3 total YPG while ranking 4th in the nation by giving up just 8.8 PPG. Furthermore, the Hawkeyes will put pressure on the first-year sophomore quarterback to make plays as they are 11th in the nation by allowing just 85.6 rushing YPG. Those defensive numbers are against better competition than what Penn State has faced with Iowa facing the Wolverines and Iowa State already this season. Stanley should play better at home as well where the three-year starter has thrown 8 touchdown passes with zero interceptions in three wins this year.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa will also have revenge on their mind from a 30-24 loss at Penn State last October 27th. The Hawkeyes lost a narrow 21-19 game in a night game two years ago in the last time they hosted the Nittany Lions as a 12.5-point underdog. 10* CFB Penn State-Iowa ABC-TV Special with the Iowa Hawkeyes (204) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (200) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (199). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (4-1) enters this rivalry game coming off a 52-0 shutout win at home against Bowling Green last Saturday as a 45.5-point favorite. USC (3-2) returns to action after their bye week that came after a 28-14 loss at Washington as a 12.5-point underdog two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: The Trojans are an imploding program in what appears to be a lame-duck final season for fifth-year head coach Clay Helton. Under his watch, USC has now lost seven of their last eleven games. The Trojans have also won just two of their last fifteen games as an underdog under Helton — so there is little chance that USC will be in a serious position to win this game tonight. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as the underdog. And while the USC defense played well two weeks ago in their two-touchdown loss to the Huskies with the Total set in the 59 range, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The good news for this team is they get their freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis back after he cleared the concussion protocol. The bad news is that he is only the starter because sophomore J.T. Daniels suffered a season-ending knee injury — and the team needs him to play a veteran in a very challenging environment on the road in South Bend for this nationally televised night game. USC is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games on the road — and they are just 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games outside Pac-12 play. And in their last 7 games in the month of October, USC has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Notre Dame has won sixteen of their last eighteen games under head coach Brian Kelly with those two losses being on the road after Georgia last month and on a neutral field in the College Football Semifinals against Clemson. They should build off the momentum of their big win last week as they are covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least four touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Irish generated 573 yards of offense in that win — and not only are they 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 40 points but they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after generating at least 475 yards of offense in their last game. They have a big edge under center with senior quarterback Ian Book who is leading an offense that is scoring 41.0 PPG (51.0 PPG at home) — and they will probably get their top rusher in Jafar Armstrong back for this game after he has been out since Game One with a groin injury. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Irish also boast a strong defense that has registered ten sacks over the last two weeks while allowing only 14.8 PPG this season.

FINAL TAKE: It will be cold in South Bend tonight with winds in the 10 to 20 MPH range. Don’t be surprised if turnovers play a big role to help the Irish — they rank third in the nation with thirteen takeaways while leading the nation with their +10 net turnover differential. USC has a net -7 turnover margin this season — and they have not won the turnover battle in a game since the opening week of the 2018 season against UNLV which is the longest streak in the nation. 25* CFB Saturday NBC-TV Game of the Year with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (200) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (199). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (142) minus the point(s) versus the Ball State Cardinals (141). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 42-16 upset loss at Central Michigan last Saturday as a 4-point favorite. Ball State (2-3) looks to build off their 27-20 upset win at Northern Illinois last Saturday as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan should respond with a strong effort after last week’s disappointing performance. The Eagles have rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a loss to a Mid-American Conference opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a conference foe. Furthermore, Eastern Michigan has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss while covering the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after a blowout loss by at least 20 points. This team has become a physical and nasty team under head coach Chris Creighton in his sixth season with the program while also embodying his mental toughness. Creighton has resurrected this program that had only won five combined games in his three seasons before going 19-19 since the start of the 2017 season. The Eagles could have had an even better record over that span as they were just 6-11 in games decided by one scoring possession entering the fall. Eastern Michigan lost five of their six games by 7 points or less last year. Additionally, the analytics for this team are skewed right now with four of their first five games being on the road. The Eagles will be playing just their second game at home this season where they have a nice home-field advantage when playing at the “Factory.” Eastern Michigan is led by a dynamic senior dual-threat quarterback in Mike Glass III who would have likely led this team to a better record last year if not for an injury that limited him to just eight games. Glass is completing 66.8% of his passes this season with 13 touchdown passes and just 5 interceptions while leading the Eagles to average 265 passing YPG. Glass led this team to an upset win at Illinois. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in there 56.5 to 63 point range. Ball State may be due for a letdown after their upset win on the road against the Huskies last week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Cardinals eked out that game despite being outgained by Northern Illinois by -120 net yards after managing to generate a mere 269 yards of offense. That is not a good sign for them this week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after being outgained by at least 125 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. This team stays on the road for their third straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Ball State has scored only 7 (at NC State) and 3 points in the first half of these last two games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of their last two games. And in their last 6 games in expected close contests where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Eastern Michigan should be confident in this game after crushing the Cardinals at Ball State by a 42-20 score last season. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Ball State. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (142) minus the point(s) versus the Ball State Cardinals (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (128) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (127). THE SITUATION: Temple (4-1) has won two straight games after their 27-17 win at East Carolina back on October 3rd as a -12.5-point favorite. Memphis (5-0) remained unbeaten last Saturday with their 55-33 win at UL-Monroe as a 16-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: Temple has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and this team has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with extra days of rest after a Thursday night game. Their lone loss this season was on the road at Buffalo where they were upset by a 38-22 score. Three interceptions played a large role in giving up all those points to the Bulls — but they have not allowed more than 17 points in any of their other four games this season. Temple is allowing only 17.2 PPG along with just 292.4 total YPG — and those numbers plummet to just 10.3 PPG along with just 285.3 total YPG when playing at home this year. Seven starters returned on defense from last year with this group allowing opposing rushers to average just 3.2 Yards-Per-Carry while opposing quarterbacks are completing only 45.9% of their passes while averaging just 167 passing YPG. Now this team returns back home for Homecoming Week where they are 3-0 while outscoring their guests by +23.0 PPG due to their offense that is scoring 33.3 PPG and averaging 481.3 total YPG. The Owls have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games as a dog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Temple gained 490 yards last week on the road against the Pirates — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Owls are also 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games in the month of October. Memphis have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a double-digit win on the road. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after a game where at least 80 combined points were scored. Memphis defeating the Warhawks last week despite being outgained by -40 net yards due to their props defense allowing 575 total yards. After an opening week 15-10 win against Ole Miss, the Tigers have scored at least 35 points in each of their next four games — but they failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 31 points in four straight games. Now this team plays their second straight game on the road — as well as their third game in their last four contests away from home e— and they are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Look for the Tigers to be in a barn-burner against this confident Owls team at home who have the best defense that they have faced all season. 20* CFB Memphis-Temple ESPN2 Special with the Temple Owls (128) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (127). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (113) and the Oregon Ducks (114). THE SITUATION: Colorado (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 35-30 upset loss at home to Arizona last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Oregon (4-1) has won four straight games after their 17-7 win over Cal last Saturday as a 21.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a bit of a contrarian play with the Total opening at 58 and now being bet up to the 60s in many spots. The Buffaloes have played in two straight high scoring affairs with their win last week preceded by a 34-30 win at Arizona State. Colorado’s defense has looked shaky by allowing 487 yards to the Wildcats after surrendering 453 yards to the Wildcats. The Buffaloes have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 475 yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after giving up at least 450 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Colorado has played 4 straight games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have placed 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. This is just the second true road game of the season for the Buffaloes who have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on field turf. On offense, senior quarterback Steven Montez led the team to 337 passing yards for the second straight week — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 325 passing yards in their last game. Colorado has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total playing on a Friday night. Oregon has seen the Under go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after a straight-up win. Senior quarterback Justin Herbert gets most of the attention with this Ducks team — but he has led this team to just 38 combined points over their last two games against Cal and Stanford. Oregon scored 77 points against a Nevada defense that Hawai’i also ripped to shreds while also scoring only 35 points against an FCS team in Montana. But when also considering their 27-21 loss to Auburn to begin the season, the Ducks are scoring less than 20 PPG against Power-Five conference opponents. It may very well be that the concern that Herbert lacked proven dynamic weapons at running back and wide receiver may have turned out to be the case. But second-year head coach Mario Cristobal has assembled a talented defense that is thriving under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos. The former Boise State coordinator is leading a group that is allowing just 9.8 PPG along with only 261.4 total YPG. The Ducks have talent at all three levels of the defense — and they held the Golden Bears to just 256 total yards of offense last week. Oregon has then played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Ducks have not allowed more than 7 points in each of their last four games after that first game against the Tigers — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in two straight games. Oregon stays at home where they have played 4 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Buffaloes will want to avoid a shootout on the road at Autzen Stadium against this Ducks team — and Cristobal seems to be mimicking the identity of Nick Saban where he used to war as an assistant. Expect a lower scoring game led by the still underrated Oregon defense. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (113) and the Oregon Ducks (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (110) minus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (109). THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (2-3) looks to rebound from their 42-35 loss at home to Virginia Tech last Saturday as a 14-point favorite. Virginia (4-1) suffered their first loss of the season two weeks ago with their 35-20 loss at Notre Dame as a 10.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: A -5 net turnover margin did Miami in last week against the Hokies. The Hurricanes trailed by a 28-0 score at one point of that game in the first half but did almost rally to steal that game. They dominated Virginia Tech by outgaining them by a 563 to 337 yardage margin. They averaged 7.22 Yards-Per-Play in that game with sophomore quarterback N’Kosi Perry taking over for an injured freshman quarterback Jarren Williams. Perry will get the start in this game with Williams dealing with a bum shoulder — but Williams also threw three first-half interceptions to help place the Hurricanes in the hole from which they could not pull themselves out. Perry started six times last season — so he has experience. Miami should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.75 Yards-Per-Play. The Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after suffering a net turnover of -5 or worse in their last game. Expectations were high for this team entering the season with first-year head coach Matt Diaz with twelve starters back from last year’s team that suffered five net upsets last year. All three of Miami’s losses this year have been by one scoring possession to good football teams in Florida, North Carolina, and then the Hokies last week. They are outscoring their opponents by +10.8 net PPG while outgaining them by +166.4 net YPG. The Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by no more than 3 points. Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games after winning four of their last five games. The rushing numbers are the biggest concerns for the Cavaliers coming out of that game with the Irish as they managed only 4 net rushing yards while being outgained on the ground by Notre Dame by -153 net yards. Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after being outrushed by at least 125 yards. The Cavaliers stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Six starters returned for this team on offense including senior quarterback Bryce Perkins — but explosiveness was an issue for this offense last year which remains a question going into the season. That offense ranked 81st in the FBS by averaging just 384.8 total YPG — but this year’s unit has seen that number decline to just 363.6 total YPG. Furthermore, Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a Friday night.

FINAL TAKE: Miami will also have revenge on their minds after being upset on the road at Virginia last year despite being a 7-point favorite by a 16-13 score. It has been a disappointing start for the Hurricanes this season — but a victory tonight would be their biggest win of the year. 10* CFB Virginia-Miami (FL) ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (110) minus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-10 loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog. New England (5-0) returns home after playing their last two games on the road after their 33-7 win at Washington as a 15.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots had plead 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win  — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least five games in a row. Additionally, New England has played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Patriots have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. New England have one of their best defenses in the Bill Belichick era as they are allowing a mere 6.8 PPG while holding their opponents to just 238.4 total YPG. The Patriots will be leaning on their defense for this game given the injuries this team is experiencing on offense. Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett is out with a hamstring injury while wide receivers Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman are both listed as questionable with a knee and chest injury. The targets for Tom Brady in the passing game were already a big question mark for this team as they transition away from the Rob Gronkowski era. The lack of an elite weapon in the passing game is why the team took a chance on Antonio Brown before he proved to be too much trouble for what he offered. It was the Brown signing that compelled the Patriots to trade away wide receiver Demaryius Thomas early in the season when it looked like they had too many bodies at that position. Now this team could use a reliable healthy body at that position with their first-round draft choice, N’Keal Harry, on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. Brady was still able to complete 28 of 42 passes for 348 yards last week against the Skins en route to 442 total yards of offense — but New England has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game while also playing 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Patriots return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. New York managed only 211 total yards last week with just 147 net yards in the passing game. The Giants were already without star running back Sequon Barkley with his knee injury but the injuries began to mount in that game with the carry-over being significant for this game being played on a short week. Barkley’s backup, Wayne Gallman, is out tonight having not cleared the concussion protocol leaving the rushing duties to Jon Hillman who came off the practice squad a few weeks ago. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is also without his top two receiving threats in wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram as they deal with a concussion and MCL injuries respectively. As it is, the Giants have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 passing yards. New York also allowed 211 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: With the Giants riddled with injuries, expect a similar score as their 28-10 loss last week to the Vikings. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing the Patriots in Foxboro. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (103) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (104). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-10 loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog. New England (5-0) returns home after playing their last two games on the road after their 33-7 win at Washington as a 15.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York should respond with a strong effort — they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Admittedly, the Giants are a M*A*S*H unit right now. The Giants were already without star running back Sequon Barkley with his knee injury but the injuries began to mount in that game with the carry-over being significant for this game being played on a short week. Barkley’s backup, Wayne Gallman, is out tonight having not cleared the concussion protocol leaving the rushing duties to Jon Hillman who came off the practice squad a few weeks ago. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is also without his top two receiving threats in wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram as they deal with a concussion and MCL injuries respectively. But at least this team got wide receiver, Golden Tate, back last week after he served his four-game suspension. And this is a team playing with optimism given the hope that rookie quarterback Daniel Jones provides for the future. The Giants had the best statistical offense in the preseason with Jones getting plenty of experience playing with the backup weapons so there will be familiarity for this offense when it takes the field tonight. New York managed only 211 total yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 250 total yards in their last contest. The Giants were outrushed by 147 net yards to the Vikings last week — but they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in their last game. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Patriots will be leaning on their defense for this game given the injuries this team is experiencing on offense. Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett is out with a hamstring injury while wide receivers Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman are both listed as questionable with a knee and chest injury. The targets for Tom Brady in the passing game were already a big question mark for this team as they transition away from the Rob Gronkowski era. The lack of an elite weapon in the passing game is why the team took a chance on Antonio Brown before he proved to be too much trouble for what he offered. It was the Brown signing that compelled the Patriots to trade away wide receiver Demaryius Thomas early in the season when it looked like they had too many bodies at that position. Now this team could use a reliable healthy body at that position with their first-round draft choice, N’Keal Harry, on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. New England is scoring 31.0 PPG this season — but that includes their defense scoring four times already this year with another touchdown scored by their special teams via a blocked punt. Take away those five defensive/special team scores and the Patriots scoring average drops by a full touchdown to a 24.0 PPG clip — and those 17 or so points they are laying tonight begins to look pretty thin. The defending Super Bowl champions have also benefited from an easy early schedule. Take away their 16-10 victory over Buffalo where they were outgained by a 375-224 margin and out-first downed by a 23 to 11 gap, the remaining four teams on the New England schedule consisting of Pittsburgh, Miami, the Jets, and the Skins are a combined 1-17. Throw in some 20 MPH winds with light rain and the Patriots content with an easy win where the team remains healthy — and I will hold my nose while investing in the value of all those points with the dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 straight meetings with the Patriots — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Foxboro to face New England. 10* NFL NY Giants-New England Fox-TV Special with the New York Giants (103) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (107) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (108). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (3-2) takes the field again after their 41-3 win over Holy Cross back on September 28th as a 40-point favorite. NC State (3-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-13 loss at Florida State as a 7-point underdog on September 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orange have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Syracuse has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by at least five touchdowns. The Orange’s victory over Holy Cross from the FCS came after a 52-33 win at home over Western Michigan — and they have then played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least 17 points. Syracuse has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Orange have struggled with their offensive line against bigger defensive lines from Power Five conferences. Syracuse only had two starters back from last year’s offensive line. The Orange are averaging just 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry this season while allowing 18 sacks already. The Wolfpack have two starters back from last year’s defensive line — but this unit has reloaded from year-to-year under head coach Dave Doeren as of late. Despite losing four players on their defensive line to the NFL last year, the NC State defense still produced a Havoc Rate of 10.8% which was a slight drop from their 11.3% Havoc Rate in 2017 with those four future NFLers. Now after playing their last two games at home, Syracuse goes back on the road where they are scoring only 22.0 PPG. The Under is 26-12-1 in the Orange’s last 39 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And int her last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points, Syracuse has played 5 of these games Under the Total. NC State has played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a fellow ACC opponent. The Wolfpack have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Doeren will be sticking with sophomore quarterback Bailey Hockman who made his first career start in that game against the Seminoles. Hickman completed only 21 of 40 passes for 208 yards with a touchdown in that game taking over for redshirt sophomore Matthew McKay who started the first four games of the season. Finding the replacement for three-year starter, Ryan Finley, remains a work in progress for this team. NC State returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Wolfpack defense has played much better at home where they are allowing just 9.7 PPG and only 264 total YPG. Furthermore, NC State has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams from the ACC. And in their last 20 games played on a Thursday night, the Under is 18-1-1 for the Wolfpack.

FINAL TAKE: While I am not sure how effective this nascent NC State offense will be with just four starters back from last season and with Hockman making only his second career start, Doeren should have his defense ready to roll tonight. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (107) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (102) minus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (101). THE SITUATION: Louisiana (4-1) has won four straight games after their 37-24 win at Georgia Southern as a 3-point favorite back on September 28th. Appalachian State (4-0) remains undefeated this season with their 56-37 victory over Coastal Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite on September 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Louisiana should build off the momentum of their big win on the road as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. This is a team on the rise in head coach Billy Napier’s second season running the program after previously serving as an assistant to both Nick Saban and Dabo Sweeney. After this program averaged just 5.3 incoming freshmen rated as a 3-star or better from 2016-18, Napier nabbed twenty-two 3-star or better recruits for his 2019 class. Fifteen starters returned from last year’s group that lost to the Mountaineers in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. This year’s team started the year with a strong showing in a neutral field 10-point loss to Mississippi State. The Ragin’ Cajuns have since won their last four games including last week’s win against an Eagles team that won ten games last year as well as a 45-25 win at an Ohio team that was the preseason pick to win the Mid-American Conference. Louisiana is averaging 314.5 rushing YPG which leads the nation. The Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 44.4 PPG while generating 540.2 total YPG. Louisiana has scored 159 combined points over their last three games while averaging 559 total YPG in those contests. The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games after averaging at least 475 YPG in their last there games. And while Louisiana has generated at least 275 rushing yards in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in two straight contests. But the difference in this team this season is their significant improvement on the other side of the line of scrimmage. After allowing 34.2 PPG along with 435.9 total YPG last season, seven returning starters under second-year defensive coordinator Ron Roberts is now allowing only 21.4 PPG along with just 345.2 total YPG against a challenging schedule so far this season. Louisiana also leads the Sun Belt Conference in Pass Efficiency defense. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Ragin’ Cajuns return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Louisiana has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Appalachian State may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in three of their first four games. The Mountaineers failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Appalachian State has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning at least four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three of these last four games. The Mountaineers remain a powerful offensive team but they have taken a step or two back on defense. Appalachian State was 4th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 15.5 PPG but they lost five starters from that group including very good players on their defensive line and their two starting cornerbacks. The Mountaineers are allowing 29.0 PPG this season with their opponents averaging 420.2 total YPG which is more than 130 YPG more than last year. Not only did Coastal Carolina put up 39 points against them but Charlotte scored 41 points against them earlier this season. The biggest decline has been with their run defense as they are allowing opposing rushers to average 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry which is 0.8 YPC higher than last year — and this inferior run defense will play right into the hands of the Louisiana ground game. Additionally, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana has certainly had this date circled on their calendar after losing twice to the Mountaineers last season. The Ragin’ Cajuns did win the first down battle in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game by a 16-13 margin in that 30-19 loss. Louisiana has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Appalachian State-Louisiana ESPN2 Special with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (102) minus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (477) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (478). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-2) looks to build off their 40-25 victory in Baltimore against the Ravens last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-0) takes the field again after their 24-20 victory over Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite back on September 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco generated 436 yards of offense against the Steelers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The 49ers have also failed to covet the point spread in 6 straight games after their bye week. This team entered the regular season with significant concerns about the health of quarterback Jimmy Garappolo with his returning from knee surgery. Now this team has been overhyped with the two weeks of remaining one of the two remaining undefeated in the league. Yet the Niners have benefited from an easy schedule that has featured Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, and Mason Rudolph. San Francisco has also won their first three games despite committing eight turnovers. The 49ers turned the ball over five times in their win against the Steelers while winning that game despite a -3 net turnover margin. The 49ers have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. San Francisco stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games when favored by no more than 7 points. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of October. Cleveland got back to their ground game going last week in their win on the road against the Ravens. They rushed for 193 yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Browns generated 528 yards of offense in that game while averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. Cleveland stays on the road this week where they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns are still dealing with injuries in their defensive backfield with Denzel Ward and Phillip Gaines still out with injuries — but this team has veterans that played well against the Ravens last week in their absence. San Francisco is also dealing with some significant injuries with left tackle Joe Staley and defensive back Ahkello Witherspoon both out for this game. 10* NFL Cleveland-San Francisco ESPN Special with the Cleveland Browns (477) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-2) looks to build off their 40-25 victory in Baltimore against the Ravens last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-0) takes the field again after their 24-20 victory over Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite back on September 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The offense under head coach Kyle Shanahan may get the headlines with the Niners 3-0 start — but it is the play of the defense that has led the way for this team. San Fransisco is third in the NFL by holding teams to just 283.3 total YPG — and they are allowing only 18.0 PPG. The 49ers defense has been helped by Shanahan calling running plays in 57% of their plays from scrimmage which burns clocks and keeps that defense fresh and off the field. San Francisco held the ball for 36:17 minutes against the Steelers which helped them limit the Pittsburgh offense to just 239 total yards of offense. The Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers have outgained their last two opponents by +197 and +256 net yards — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +150 net yards in two straight games. San Francisco went into halftime of that game trailing by a 6-3 score — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Jimmy Garappolo did pass for 277 yards in that contest — but the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco stays at home for this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over an AFC North rival. The Browns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. That game flew over the 47-point Total — and Cleveland has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Browns have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Cleveland committed to running the football to win on the road against the Ravens — they generated 193 rushing yards en route to their 528 total yards of offense. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Browns’ last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. Cleveland has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns are scoring just 22.2 PPG this season even after putting up 40 points last week. Expect a lower scoring game tonight with both teams deploying run-first offensive game plans. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-2) looks to rebound from their 31-24 upset loss at home to Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained undefeated last week with their 34-30 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes had thrown at least two touchdown passes in fourteen straight games before getting shutout from touchdown passes last week against the Matt Patricia-coached Lions defense. Yet the Chiefs still put up 34 points while generating 438 yards of offense. Kansas City has then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Chiefs have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. This Kansas City team under head coach Andy Reid has scored at least 25 points in a remarkable twenty-five straight games. They return home for just the second time this season where they have averaged 32 PPG with Mahomes as their quarterback. The problem for this Chiefs team remains their defense. Kansas City is allowing 259 passing YPG this year. The Chiefs have been even worse with their run defense as opposing rushers are averaging 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry which is translating into 150 rushing YPG. Detroit outgained KC last week with 447 total yards of offense — and the Over is 4-1-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. And in their last 11 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Over is 7-3-1 for Kansas City. Indianapolis will be challenged to slow down Mahomes and the dynamic Chiefs’ passing attack with defensive backs Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers out with injuries. The Colts are allowing 25.5 PPG this season. But Jacoby Brissett has proven himself as a legitimate starting quarterback with over 900 passing yards in his first four starts with 10 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. It looks like Brissett will have the benefit of his wider receiver T.Y. Hilton on the field for this game with the reports indicating he will play despite his quad injury. Indianapolis has played 31 of their last 41 games Over the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. Additionally, the Colts have played 36 of their last 53 games in the month of October Over the Total — and this includes them playing six straight Overs on the road in October.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total when playing on a grass field (as opposed to the field turf at Lucas Oil Field). The Chiefs will be hard to stop on offense in this game — don’t be surprised if they approach the 40 point threshold against the banged-up Colts defense. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-2) looks to rebound from their 31-24 upset loss at home to Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained undefeated last week with their 34-30 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should bounce-back with a strong effort in this game — they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 56 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have played two straight games where at least 51 combined points were scored, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. Jacoby Brissett has proven himself as a legitimate starting quarterback with over 900 passing yards in his first four starts with 10 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. It looks like Brissett will have the benefit of his wider receiver T.Y. Hilton on the field for this game with the reports indicating he will play despite his quad injury. He should be able to keep his team close in this game (as a double-digit underdog) against this Kansas City defense that is allowing 259 passing YPG this year. The Chiefs have been even worse with their run defense as opposing rushers are averaging 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry which is translating into 150 rushing YPG. The Colts have finally developed a strong offensive line — and while that group cannot salvage Andrew Luck’s career, they will help the Indy offense in the ground game and in giving Brissett time to pick apart the Kansas City defense. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. The Colts are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Kansas City was actually outgained by the Lions last week by a 447 to 438 yardage mark — their controversial 100-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown ended up playing a critical role in that win. The Chiefs surrendered 447 yards to the Detroit offense — and they have allowed their last three opponents to average 402 total YPG. Kansas City remains undefeated because of their dynamic offense as they have averaged 474.0 total YPG along with 468.3 total YPG over their last three contests. But the Chiefs have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after averaging at least 450 YPG in their last three games. Furthermore, Kansas City has scored 28 points in all four of their games this season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t underestimate what this game means to Colts’ head coach Frank Reich after his team lost in Kansas City last January 12th in the AFC Divisional Playoffs with their 31-13 loss. Yet Indianapolis has still covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 meetings with the Chiefs — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played in Arrowhead Stadium. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Kansas City NBC-TV Special with the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (469) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (470). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 16-10 loss at home to New England last week as a 7-point underdog. Tennessee (2-2) looks to build off their 24-10 upset win on the road in Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Titans may be due for a letdown after that upset victory last week. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after an upset victory on the road by at least two touchdowns as an underdog. Tennessee got their offense going by generating 415 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. While this offense will get a shot in the arm with the return of left tackle Taylor Lewan after he served his four-game PED suspension, this remains a group that is averaging just 321.5 total YPG. Marcus Mariota is just 30-30 in his sixty career starts — and he has thrown 29 interceptions in those 30 losses which does not speak well when facing elite defenses. The Bills have one of the best secondaries in the business. Tennessee is also due for a visit from the Regression Gods as they have fumbled eight times this season but has only turned the ball over once in those mishaps. The Titans hang their hats on their defense that ranks fourth in the league by allowing just 15.5 PPG. But Tennessee did allow 422 total yards to the Falcons last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans return home for just their second game all season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Tennessee is also just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Buffalo is 2-0 on the road this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Bills played well against the Patriots last week as they outgained them by +151 net yards while winning the first down battle by a 23 to 11 margin. Surrendering a blocked punt for a touchdown played a role as well as having their quarterback get knocked out with a head injury. The Bills frustrated Tom Brady all day as he completed just 18 of 39 passes for only 150 yards. Buffalo is fifth in the league by allowing 15.7 PPG — and they rank second in the NFL by giving up just 286.7 total YPG. Head coach Sean McDermott has ten starters back from last year’s defense that led the league in total defense. McDermott should have his team ready to play as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss at home where they covered the point spread as the underdog — and the Bills have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 14 points. The good news for Buffalo is that Josh Allen has been cleared from the concussion protocol to be able to play in this game. The Bills have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams has allowed more than 20 points — and, considering that the last three meetings between these two teams have been decided by just one point, a very close game is likely. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Buffalo Bills (469) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (451) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (452). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-2) looks to bounce-back from their 40-25 upset loss at home to Cleveland last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-3) looks to build off their 27-3 victory at home over Cincinnati on Monday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: The Steelers finally earned their first win of the season on Monday — but I expect them to suffer a letdown having to play on a short week. Pittsburgh is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games played after Monday Night Football. And while the Steelers held the listless Bengals to just 175 yards of offense, they are then 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in their last game. At first glance, it looked like quarterback Mason Rudolph had a great game as he completed 24 of 28 passes for 229 yards — but a handful of those completions were forward lateral jet sweep routes that are just glorified run plays. Head coach Mike Tomlin admitted that the offense reached into their bag of gimmicks to provide some spice to their offense. Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh and his staff have now had a week of practice to deal with their wildcat look with Jaylen Samuels under center along with the other tricks they employed against the Bengals. Overall, Pittsburgh passed of 260 yards in that game — but they are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. While the demise of the Steelers was overblown going into Monday with their opponents currently owning a combined 11-1 record, this team still has some significant problems that help account for their 0-3 start. The Pittsburgh offensive line has struggled which has hurt James Connor’s ability to get the ground game going. The lack of a proven true number one wide receiver has also put pressure on the rushing attack — and there has yet to emerge a reliable second wide receiver to complement JuJu Smith-Shuster. And, of course, Rudolph is not nearly the quarterback that the injured Ben Roethlisberger is. Furthermore, the Pittsburgh pass defense had allowed at least 268 passing yards in their three losses before getting to play the Bengals without their top wideout A.J. Green. Baltimore will be feisty to earn a win after dropping their last two games to Kansas City and the Browns last week. The Ravens have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC North rival. And while Cleveland outgained them by 133 net yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games on the road after being outgained by at least 100 net yards. Baltimore needs to play better on defense after allowing 528 and 503 yards of offense in their last two games. The Ravens should tighten up on that side of the field as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at last 450 yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight contests. Both of their last two games finished Over the Total — but Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least two straight Overs. The Ravens have been a good team on the road under Harbaugh — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens usually bring their “A-Game” when facing the Steelers. Baltimore is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against Pittsburgh — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing the Steelers on their Heinz Field. 25* NFL AFC North Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (451) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (328) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (327). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (3-1) looks to rebound from their first loss of the season last week at Oklahoma State as a 4-point underdog. Baylor (4-0) comes off a 23-21 upset victory at home against Iowa State last Saturday where they were 2.5-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas State has rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Chris Klieman hopes the resiliency of this program under the stewardship of their longtime head coach Bill Snyder will continue under his command. He inherited fourteen starters from last year’s final Snyder team led by junior quarterback Skylar Thompson. The Wildcats offense struggled last week by generating only 244 yards on the road against the Cowboys — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 20 points. Now Kansas State returns home to Manhattan where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Baylor may be due for an emotional letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. And while they did not commit a turnover last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Junior quarterback Charlie Brewer did pass for 307 yards in that win — but the Bears are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And in their last 6 games on the road with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range, Baylor has failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Manhattan to face Kansas State. The Wildcats need this win to stay alive in the race to make the Big 12 Championship Game. Expect a spirited effort from Klieman’s team. 10* CFB Baylor-Kansas State ESPN2 Special with the Kansas State Wildcats (328) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (327). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (374) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (373). THE SITUATION: TCU (2-2) looks to bounce-back from their 23-21 loss at Baylor as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (3-1) looks to build off their 51-14 win over Kansas last week as a 14.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State entered this season with high expectations as they returned sixteen starters led by their sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy who finished 8-5. The Cyclones scored 30.9 PPG in their last nine games after Purdy took over as the starting quarterback. This is a very well-coached team under fourth-year head coach Matt Campbell. But after a narrow 18-17 loss at home to in-state rival, Iowa, followed by their upset loss at Baylor last week, this is a team desperate for a high profile victory. Iowa State is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two of their last three contests. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Cyclones are also 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games played in the month of October which includes seven straight point spread covers under Campbell’s leadership. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of October. The Horned Frogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread victory. TCU had three quarterbacks combine for 306 passing yards in their win over the Jayhawks — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. This looks to be a bounce-back year for head coach Gary Patterson in his nineteen years with the program after an injury-ravaged season left the Horned Frogs with a 7-6 record. Twelve starters returned from that group that did benefit from the experience after all those injuries. Patterson is using a true freshman as his starting quarterback in Max Duggan — but this is a tough assignment in playing just his second game in a hostile environment. Duggan will be playing an Iowa State defense that has allowed only five touchdowns in the twelve opponent Rez Zone trips this season. Duggan will be supported by a stout defense that ranks 4th in the nation by allowing only 246 total YPG. But TCU has only forced one turnover over their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not forcing more than one turnover in two straight games. The Horned Frogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: TCU’s lone loss this season was a 7-point favorite at home against SMU. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with the Cyclones. With Iowa State desperate for a win and with the more experienced quarterback, look for them to secure the victory. UPDATE: Thunderstorms have delayed the start of this game for two hours to 2 PM ET. The weather report indicates the rain should slow down as the afternoon moves on. I think inclement weather helps the more experienced quarterback in Purdy even if the rain is heavier than expected. 10* CFB TCU-Iowa State ESP2 Special with the  Iowa State Cyclones (374) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (373). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (323) and the Army Black Knights (324). THE SITUATION: Tulane (3-1) returns to the field after their 38-31 victory as a 4-point favorite over Houston back on September 19th. Army (3-1) looks to build off their 52-21 win over Morgan State two Saturdays ago as a 45.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Green Wave raced out to a 28-14 halftime lead over the Cougars for that Thursday night game over two weeks ago — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Tulane has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a victory over a fellow American Conference West opponent. The Green Wave rushed for 325 yards in that game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 300 yards. Tulane is 26th in the nation with their run-first offense by averaging 6.56 Yards-Per-Play. But they only scored 6 points in their lone road game this season at Auburn. But head coach Willie Fritz’s team is underrated on the defensive side of the football — they held the Tigers to only 24 points in their first road game of the year. Overall, they are holding their opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 340.2 total YPG. Tulane has eight starters back from last year’s team that played both Army and Navy — so this is a group experienced in dealing with the spread triple option. The Green Wave also returned all but one of their rotation players on their defensive line from last year’s group. Getting more than two weeks to prepare for this unique offense will certainly help. And Tulane has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 37 points in their last game. Now the Green Wave go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Tulane has placed 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Army has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Black Knights have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Army generated 483 yards of offense in that game, they have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This team does look to get their starting quarterback, Kelvin Hopkins, back for this game after he missed the last two games with a leg injury since the Black Knights heartbreaking 24-21 overtime loss at Michigan. Army plays outstanding defense — they are limiting their opponents to only 16.2 PPG along with just 287.7 total YPG with those numbers dropping to just 14.0 PPG when playing at home along with only 275.5 total YPG that they allow. The Black Knights thrive with their run defense as well as they are limiting their opponents to allow only 104 rushing YPG along with just 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Army limited Michigan to just 108 rushing yards three weeks ago — and they have had two weeks to prepare for the Green Wave run-oriented spread offense. The Black Knights have played 22 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a bye week. Moving forward, Army has played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total as an underdog of 3 points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 21-17 score in New Orleans. Expect another low scoring game. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (323) and the Army Black Knights (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (310) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (309). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (2-2) looks to bounce-back from a 41-24 loss at Air Force last Friday night as a 19.5-point underdog. New Mexico (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 17-10 loss at Liberty last Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: This Lobos team is a mess in the eighth season under head coach Bob Davie. It is a minor miracle that the former Notre Dame head coach has survived this long in Albuquerque after being suspended by the school for the unethical treatment of some of his players. Davie has also head health issues this season. This is a program that has suffered two straight 3-9 campaigns. They lost their last six games last year by an average of -25.6 PPG while being outgained by -276 YPG. Despite covering the point spread against Liberty (another team with an ailing head coach), the Lobos were outgained by -104 net yards. New Mexico has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. The Lobos has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Now this team stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in expected high scoring affairs with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. The Lobos rank 129th in the FBS by allowing 526 YPG — and they are allowing 380 passing YPG with thirteen touchdown passes allowed and just one interception. Fifth-year senior quarterback Josh Love should have success passing the football against this defense — he is leading a Spartans offense that is averaging 284.8 passing YPG. We had a big play on Air Force last week and I left that game impressed with the improvement of this San Jose State team in the third year under head coach Brent Brennan. The game was closer than the final score — and things could have gotten very interesting if the Spartans had converted at least one of their four failed fourth-down attempts. Brennan has this team playing with energy and confidence. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home for a very winnable game. They are doing a good job of protecting the football as they have committed only one turnover in each of their first three games before not giving the ball to Air Force last week. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. The Spartans have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Mountain West Conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: San Jose State has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the San Jose State Spartans (310) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (308) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (307). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (3-1) has won two straight games after their 52-14 win at Marshall as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Central Florida (4-1) looks to build off their 56-21 win at UConn as a big 42-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a victory by at least four touchdowns on the road in their last contest. The Bearcats raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after taking a lead of at least 24 points at halftime of their last game. Head coach Luke Fickell feels very good about his team in his third year with the program after having fourteen starters return from last year’s team. His team’s lone loss this season was at Ohio State where they were just physically outmatched. But they get to host this big game where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games contests. They have also only allowed 27 combined points over their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight contests. They are getting good play from their sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder who has completed 64.3% of his passes for 815 yards with eight touchdown passes. He should be able to keep up with the Knights’ true freshman quarterback in Dillon Gabriel who has thrown for 1336 passing yards this season. But his two interceptions this season were both on the road in the Knights’ 35-34 upset loss at Pittsburgh where they were laying 10 points. Gabriel will be facing a good Bearcats’ pass defense that is allowing only 167.0 passing YPG and no touchdown passes in their last two games. Gabriel completed 11 of 16 passes last week for 281 yards in that easy win over the Huskies — but UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The offensive line is an issue for this team that returned thirteen starters from last year’s group that finished 12-1 in head coach Josh Heupel’s first year with the program. After allowing only 19 sacks last season with junior QB McKenzie Milton under center for a vast majority of their games, the Knights have allowed nine sacks already this season with a freshman taking the snaps. Milton is out the year after suffering a knee injury in last year’s final regular-season game. Now this team travels away from Orlando — and they are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on field turf. And in their last 12 road games laying 3.5 to 7 points, UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati played their worst game of the season last year in a 38-13 loss at UCF last November 11th as a 6.5-point underdog. This is the game that Fickell has had circled on his team’s calendar. Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset — but take the points for some valuable insurance in what should be a close game. 10* CFB UCF-Cincinnati ESPN Special with the Cincinnati Bearcats (308) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (302) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 9-point favorite. Seattle (3-1) comes off a 27-10 win at Arizona on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINT(S): Seattle bounced-back from their loss at home to New Orleans by getting back to their ground game on the road in Arizona. After quarterback Russell Wilson threw 50 passes against the Saints in their 76 offensive plays from scrimmage, head coach Pete Carroll got his team back to almost a 50-50 run/pass ratio with 27 rushing attempts and 28 pass attempts for Wilson. Seattle actually outgained the Saints by a whopping 515 to 265 yardage differential in that game but surrendering a special team's touchdown and a defensive touchdown helped New Orleans seize and maintain the lead in that game. Carroll credits his team's courage to commit to the run last season as the reason why they rallied from an 0-2 start to make the playoffs. While it may be boring, running plays up the middle lull the strong safety into the box which makes him a step behind in providing double coverage in the deep shots they then want Wilson to take. Now the Seahawks return home where they will be very motivated to play better at home this week after their loss to the Saints — and they will also be looking to avenge getting swept by this Rams team last season. In fact, Los Angeles has won their last two visits to Seattle as well as three of their last four games there — so this is a critical game on the Seahawks calendar. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against fellow teams from the NFC. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the month of October. And Seattle has been outstanding when playing on Thursday nights on the Carroll regime as they are 7-0-2 ATS in their last 9 games played for Thursday Night Football. Los Angeles has struggled in these contests as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Thursday Night Football. The Rams are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles is struggling to find themselves on offense after Todd Gurley ran the ball only five times last week despite head coach Sean McVay proclaiming he wanted to get his running back 25 touches. Gurley did not even get his first touch in that game until their fourth possession in the eighteenth offensive play of the game. In fact, Gurley has rushed the ball only 19 times in the first half in the first four games of the season with that mark rising to 30 combined carries in the second half so far this year (with a nice 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry mark). Jared Goff completed 45 of 68 passes in that game for 517 yards — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they generated at least 350 yards. They are also just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The failure to establish Gurley as a viable option has ruined the team’s play-action passing attack from which Goff thrived last season. He has a low 60 Passer Rating on play-action passes this season because defenses are not taking the bait on the potential handoff to the running back. Goff has also not been nearly as effective in the passing game on the road. Los Angeles is averaging 298 passing YPG this season with Goff completing 64.2% of his passes while averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt — but those marks drop to just 219 passing YPG into their two road games this season with Goff completing just 61.7% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 YPA. Additionally, the concerns of this Rams offense has much to do with their reconfigured offensive line after they let two veterans in Robert Safford and John Sullivan go in the offseason to make room for two of their 2018 draft choices in Joseph Noteboom and Brian Allen. This line has taken a few steps back this season with Pro Football Focus rating them as the lowest-graded unit in the league this season. All the passing from Goff also leads to turnovers — he had three interceptions against the Buccaneers after throwing two interceptions the previous week at Cleveland. Goff has six interceptions on the season which has played a direct role in the Rams’ having a -2 and -3 net turnover margin over their last two games. Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after having a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: While the Rams have won six of the last eight meetings between these two teams straight-up, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Seahawks — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 trips to Seattle to face this team. 10* NFL LA Rams-Seattle Fox-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (302) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 9-point favorite. Seattle (3-1) comes off a 27-10 win at Arizona on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Los Angeles defense could not stop Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers offense — they surrendered 464 yards in that game. This team had entered the Week Four having allowed the second-fewest points in the league to the Patriots — and they are still only allowing 330.2 total YPG even after what the Bucs did to them. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Look for head coach Sean McVay to commit to getting running back Todd Gurley involved in this game early. McVay claimed he wanted Gurley to get around 25 touches last week against the Buccaneers — but falling behind early in that game lulled the LA offense into relying on their passing attack. Gurley did not even get his first touch in that game until their fourth possession in the eighteenth offensive play of the game. In fact, Gurley has rushed the ball only 19 times in the first half in the first four games of the season with that mark rising to 30 combined carries in the second half so far this year (with a nice 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry mark). Jared Goff completed 45 of 68 passes in that game for 517 yards — but the Rams only ran the ball 11 times all game for a mere 28 yards. The Rams have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after they attempted at least 50 passes in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Getting Gurley involved earlier in the game will also help Goff sell the play-action pass — he has a low 60 Passer Rating on play-action passes this season because defenses are not taking the bait on the potential handoff to the running back. More running will also help Goff in the passing game where he is not nearly as effective as he is when playing at home. Los Angeles is averaging 298 passing YPG this season with Goff completing 64.2% of his passes while averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt — but those marks drop to just 219 passing YPG into their two road games this season with Goff completing just 61.7% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 YPA. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Seattle rebounded from their upset loss at home to the Saints by being on offense for 33:24 minutes of their game with the Cardinals. The Seahawks will want to continue to control the clock to keep the Rams offense off the field while keeping their defense fresh. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Seahawks have scored at least 27 points in each of their last three games — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games. Furthermore, Seattle has averaged 6.78 and 6.18 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last two games — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in Weeks 5 through 9.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams will likely look to establish their ground game tonight — and that will burn time off the moving clock. The possibility of thunderstorms may also play a big role in this contest being a battle of the respective rushing attacks. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 encounters in Seattle Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (305) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (306). THE SITUATION: Temple (3-1) looks to build off their 24-2 victory over Georgia Tech last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. East Carolina (3-2) has won three of their last four games after they upset Old Dominion on the road on Saturday by a 24-21 score as a 3-point dog.

REASONS TO TAKE TEMPLE MINUS THE POINTS: First-year head coach Mike Houston deserved credit for already matching East Carolina’s win total from last season. But two of the Pirates’ wins so far this season were against FCS opponents in Gardner Webb and William & Mary. The Monarchs are not a very good team this year either — and it is likely that their 32-point loss to Navy along with their 28-point loss to NC State is more indicative of where this team is at after winning only six games in their previous two seasons. This football program made a mistake in letting Ruffin McNeil go after six seasons back in 2016 after a disappointing 5-7 record in a year where they outgained their American Athletic Conference opponents by +26.5 net YPG while suffering three net close losses decided by one scoring possession. The subsequent Scottie Montgomery era was a failure with three straight 3-9 seasons. Houston inherited fourteen starters but the talent level of this roster needs to be upgraded to hang with the better teams in the conference. East Carolina is just 9-31-1 ATS in their last 41 games against American Athletic Conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, this Pirates team is due for a letdown after their upset win last week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They return home for this contest where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Temple should build off the momentum of their victory last week as they have over the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a double-digit victory. Their lone loss was at Buffalo this year — but they have still covered the point spread in 43 of their last 63 games on the road which includes them covering the point spread in six of their last eight road games against teams with a winning record at home. First-year head coach Rod Carey inherited fourteen starters from last year’s team that finished 8-5 with a loss in the Independence Bowl under an interim head coach to Duke. The Owls are outscoring their opponents by +13.3 PPG while also outgaining these foes by +149.5 net YPG due. Temple is allowing only 17.2 PPG while holding their opponents to just 283.7 total YPG. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games against conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Owls should overwhelm the Pirates even as a double-digit favorite on the road. Temple has covered the point spread in their last 6 meetings with East Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a Thursday night. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Temple Owls (305) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia Southern Eagles (303) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (304). THE SITUATION: Georgia Southern (1-3) has lost its last two games after their 37-24 loss to UL-Lafayette on Saturday as a 3-point underdog. South Alabama (1-4) has lost their last three games with their 30-17 loss at UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 14.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars are averaging just 8.7 PPG over their last three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after a loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. And while South Alabama committed only one turnover last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 39 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last contest. Second-year head coach Steve Campbell is trying to change the culture with this program after taking over for Joey Jones after he was fired after nine years with the program. Campbell has great success at the junior college ranks — but the FBS is a different challenge. The program lost nine players who transferred in the offseason leaving just ten starters back from last year’s 3-9 team. The Jaguars also lost thirty lettermen from last year overall which is the fifth most in the FBS. This remains a major rebuild for a program that has not had a winning season in seven straight years. Now South Alabama returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record overall — and they are just 11-26-1 ATS in their last 38 games against conference rivals. Georgia Southern needs a victory with just one win for the season. They have embraced a very tough schedule out of the gate with an opening game against LSU. They also played an underrated Minnesota team on the road — yet they only lost by a 35-32 score as a 17-point underdog. Chad Lunsford has got this program back on track in just his second year after things went off the rails in the two seasons under Tyson Summers. As a longtime assistant at Georgia Southern, Lunsford re-established the team’s identity around a triple-option offense while adding a shotgun/pistol angle to it by hiring bringing in former New Mexico offensive coordinator Bob DeBesse. The Eagles are averaging 202 rushing YPG with their rushers averaging 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. This team should run and down on this Jaguars defense that is allowing opposing rushers to average 4.6 YPC along with 179 rushing YPG. South Alabama let Memphis generate 312 rushing yards against them along with AUB putting up another 201 rushing yards. Rushing attacks travel on the road — and Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while the Eagles averaged just 3.68 Yards-Per-Play against the Ragin’ Cajuns, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where they failed to average at least 3.75 YPP. Georgia Southern needs to play better on defense after they allowed UL-Lafayette to 275 rushing yards last week. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. But while Georgia Southern allowed only 165 passing yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games.

FINAL TAKE: While the Eagles were likely to take a step back from their 10-3 season last year, this remains a good team who lost only twelve seniors while returning fourteen starters with Sun Belt Championship aspirations. Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 4 of their last games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight meetings with this Jaguars team that is preparing for their unique offense on a short week. 10* CFB Georgia Southern-South Alabama ESPNU Special with the Georgia Southern Eagles (303) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-3) looks to bounce-back from their 21-17 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (0-3) remained winless this season with their 24-20 loss at San Francisco last Sunday as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals fell behind to the Bills by a 14-0 score at halftime while only managing 306 total yards of offense in that game. Cincinnati has then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after trading beat last two touchdowns at halftime in their last game — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The Bengals have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after losing a game where they covered the point spread as the underdog. Furthermore, this team has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three straight games. The problems with the Cincy offense starts with the ground game. After managing to average 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry against the Bills last week, they actually raised their YPC mark for the season to just 2.4 YPC which remains dead last in the league. The Bengals running backs are not getting much help at all from their offensive line — they are averaging just 0.3 yards before contact which is also last in the NFL. These limitations in their rushing attack have made Cincinnati one-dimensional. Quarterback Andy Dalton is averaging 43.3 passing attempts per game which is well above his previous season-high of 36.6 passing attempts per game. The Bengals stay on the road where the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The defense has also been an issue for this team after they allowed Buffalo to generate 416 yards last week. Cincinnati has played 31 of their last 46 road games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Under the Total after giving up at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Pittsburgh has played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Mason Rudolph struggled in his first start for this team after the season-ending injury to Big Ben Roethlisberger. He completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards against the Niners last week. San Francisco was also able to concentrate on slowing down James Connor — the Steelers managed to rush for only 79 yards on 22 carries last week. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. With the Steelers struggling with their offensive line, head coach Mike Tomlin will need more from his defense that is better than how they have played this season. The addition of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will certainly help. Pittsburgh surrendered 168 rushing yards along with 268 passing yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Moving forward, the Steelers have played 8 straight games Under the Total after playing a non-conference opponent — and they have also played 38 of their last 56 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh Under the Total. Expect a low-scoring game between these two desperate divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (277). THE SITUATION: THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-3) remained winless this season with their 24-20 loss at San Francisco last Sunday as a 6-point underdog. Cincinnati (0-3) looks to bounce-back from their 21-17 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. 
 
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: In Mike Tomlin, I trust for him to rally his team tonight to earn their first victory of the season. In spite of the Steelers’ disappointing start to the season along with the season-ending injury to Ben Roethlisberger, the fact remains that a win tonight pulls Pittsburgh within one game of first place of the AFC North — and with two divisional games still on tap with Cleveland and Baltimore. This is far from a lost season for this franchise. And while Mason Rudolph was not great last week in completing 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception, this franchise liked him enough to trade away Joshua Dobbs after the preseason. The Steelers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 48 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Steelers need to play better on defense after allowing all three of their opponents to generate at least 425 yards. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. It needs to start up from for the Steelers after they have allowed their last two opponents to rush for 151 and 168 yards. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in two straight games. Hosting this Bengals team may be just what the proverbial doctor ordered. The problems with the Cincy offense starts with their ground game. After managing to average 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry against the Bills last week, they actually raised their YPC mark for the season to just 2.4 YPC which remains dead last in the league. The Bengals running backs are not getting much help at all from their offensive line — they are averaging just 0.3 yards before contact which is also last in the NFL. These limitations in their rushing attack have made Cincinnati one-dimensional. Quarterback Andy Dalton is averaging 43.3 passing attempts per game which is well above his previous season-high of 36.6 passing attempts per game. While the Bengals’ 67 rushing yards last week topped the 59 rushing yards they combined to produce in their first two games combined, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Rudolph should have a better passing game returning home with a start under his belt. Cincinnati ranks 29th in the NFL with an opponent’s Passer Rating of 136.7. The Bengals have yet to force an incompletion when the opposing quarterback is working from a clean pocket — and these quarterbacks are 13.6 Yards-Per-Reception in those situations which is 30th in the NFL. Cincinnati is allowing 407 total YPG this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. The Bengals suffered a -2 net turnover margin last week while falling behind by a 14-0 halftime score to the Bills. Cincinnati has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin — and they have filled to cover the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 62 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 clashes with the Steelers. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on Monday Night Football. In this contest between two desperate teams looking to win their first game of the season, look for the Steelers to earn a decisive win. 10* NFL Cincinnati-Pittsburgh ESPN Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-0) looks to continue their winning ways after their 31-6 win over Miami as a 22-point favorite last week. New Orleans (2-1) comes off a 33-27 upset victory at Seattle as a 5-point favorite.

THE SITUATION: The Cowboys offense amped up in the second half of last season after they acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper from the Raiders as he offered the team the reliable weapon in the passing game that opened things up for running back Ezekiel Elliott. The elevation of Kellen Moore to offensive coordinator has now opened up the playbook to better take advantage of quarterback Dak Prescott’s talents. Prescott has passed for 920 yards in his first three games with nine touchdown passes. The deeper metrics are bullish on Prescott as well. Prescott is second in the NFL by averaging 9.8 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt. He is completing 74.5% of his passes — and his adjusted completion rate of 81.4% is the best in the league. Dallas has scored at least 31 points in all three of their games and they are second in the NFL in Expected Points Added Per Play. Furthermore, with the weapons Prescott has at his disposal in what is now a diverse offense with added pieces like Tony Pollard, Reggie Cobb and the (thankful) return of tight end Jason Witten from the television booth, the Cowboys lead the NFL in 3rd and 4th Down Success Rates. Needless to say, Jerry Jones team is at its best when their offense is humming. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. Furthermore, the Cowboys have generated at least 474 yards of offense in all three of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 400 yards in three straight games. They should build off the momentum of their easy win over the Dolphins as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Dallas is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The defense has also been quite good for this team as they are allowing only 14.6 PPG along with just 336.0 total YPG. The Cowboys defense has registered 20 hits on the quarterback this season which should start producing more than the five sacks they have tallied this year. Additionally, Dallas has not allowed more than a touchdown in the first half all season — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 7 points in the first half of two straight games. New Orleans may be due for a letdown after their dominant win on the road in Seattle as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. Teddy Bridgewater may have won thirteen of his last nineteen games as a starting quarterback but I think he limits how this Saints offense can operate. He did not attempt a pass of more than 20 yards last week. And with him playing in seven of the team’s twelve quarters this season, New Orleans is just 21st in the league by averaging 339.7 total YPG. But perhaps the more surprising aspect of this Saints team has been the disappointing play of their defense. The Football Outsiders metrics’ ranks New Orleans 28th in the league in Defensive DVOA. They upset the Seahawks last week despite getting outgained by 249 net yards after they surrendered 514 total yards with 450 of those yards coming in the air. New Orleans is 30th in the NFL by allowing 301.7 passing YPG. The Saints have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. Furthermore, while Seattle averaged 6.76 Yards-Per-Play last week, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 home games after allowing at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. The Saints benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown along with a fumble recovered for a touchdown — but special teams and defensive touchdowns are difficult to rely on to overcome massive yardage deficits. This New Orleans team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Will hosting this game in the Superdome make the difference for the Saints? They have failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games at home. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as the favorite. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (275) and the New Orleans Saints (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-0) looks to continue their winning ways after their 31-6 win over Miami as a 22-point favorite last week. New Orleans (2-1) comes off a 33-27 upset victory at Seattle as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints scored 33 points last week despite only generating 265 yards of offense. New Orleans ranks just 21st in the NFL by averaging 339.7 total Yards-Per-Game this season with Teddy Bridgewater playing in seven of those twelve quarters after the injury to quarterback Drew Brees. The fact is that the Saints’ potent offense has been waning since Week 13 of last season in their 13-10 loss in Dallas to these Cowboys. After a torrid four-week stretch where New Orleans scored 175 points with a minimum of 31 points in each of those games, New Orleans only scored 31 points one more time for the rest of the season through the playoffs — and they averaged just 19.7 PPG over their final seven games. Two of the Saints’ touchdowns last week came from a 53-yard punt return for a touchdown as well as a 53-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. That production obscures the mere 265 yards of offense they generated against the Seattle defense. New Orleans has then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The New Orleans defense has surrendered at least 27 points in all three of their games this season — but they have then played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing at least 25 points in two straight contests. Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Cowboys are allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 336.0 total YPG. And while they have scored at least 31 points in all three of their games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. The Dallas offense has generated at least 474 yards in all three of their games as well — but they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in three straight contests. And in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home, the Cowboys have played 5 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: It was a low scoring game the last time these two teams played last November 29th with just 23 combined points scored. Look for both teams to rely on their ground games and emerging defenses. 10* NFL Dallas-New Orleans NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (275) and the New Orleans Saints (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (274) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (273). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost in Green Bay last Sunday by a 27-16 score as a 7-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-2) comes off a 20-7 upset victory at home to Tennessee as a 1.5-point underdog back on September 19th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: It is surprising that Denver has not won a game considering that they are outgaining their opponents by +28.0 net YPG. The Broncos controlled the clock for 35:34 minutes last week at Lambeau Field and were only outgained by 2 yards in that 11-point loss. In their lone game at home against Chicago this season, Denver dominated the Bears in yardage by a 372 to 273 margin yet still lost by a 16-14 score. As if these results represent enough of an outlier, the Broncos are doing well in the yardage battle despite not registering a single turnover or a single sack in their first three games this season. Considering they have Von Miller and Bradley Chubb who combined for 26.5 sacks last year along with a defensive guru in first-year head coach Vic Fangio, I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods in this game for this Denver defense who is still playing well this year. The Broncos are allowing only 22.3 PPG while limiting their opponents to just 314.0 total YPG without the benefit of a turnover nor sack. On offense, Denver is doing a good job of controlling the line of scrimmage behind their one-two punch in their backfield of Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. The Broncos lead the NFL by averaging 7.61 plays per drive — and this remains a reliable formula for success. Expect Fangio to dial up a game plan to make life very difficult for the Jaguars’ rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. The Titans had a short week to prepare for the former Washington State quarterback last week but the Broncos defensive coaching staff has almost three full games of game tape on him now running the Jacksonville offense with ten days to dissect. Minshew is not mobile — and the Jaguars lack dynamic receivers so do not surprised if the sacks finally start coming in for this Denver defense. Jacksonville upset Tennessee despite being outgained by 38 net yards — they only gained 292 yards of offense with Minshew under center. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after a double-digit victory. And while Jacksonville had a 14-0 halftime lead in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after enjoying a halftime lead of at least two touchdowns. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 2-5-1 ATS. This team is getting outgained by -27.0 net YPG this year. They also are just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Run defense has been an issue for this team as they are allowing 109.3 rushing YPG which is just 16th in the NFL — and opposing rushers are averaging 4.0 Yards-Per-Carry while scoring five times this year. To compound matters, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey has been a distraction all week with his litany of excuses that he has deployed to miss practice. He still wants to be traded and his status for this game is questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville was the desperate team two Thursdays ago — and they won that home game over the Titans. Now it is Denver who needs the victory — and this is a franchise with its first 0-3 start since 1999. Look for this solid Broncos team to finally earn a win by running the football combining with a dominant defensive performance. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (274) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (273). Best of luck for us — Frank (and check out his 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month to close his Sunday card).

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (255) plus the points versus the New York Giants (256). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-3) remained winless this season after their 31-15 loss to Chicago on Monday as a 5-point underdog. New York (1-2) looks to build off their 32-31 upset win in Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDSKINS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington will be playing with desperation having not yet won a game this season. Rumors coming from a Washington Post article suggests that head coach Jay Gruden will be fired immediately after this game if the Skins do not win this game. I do expect a strong effort from this team. Washington has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. I would not sign off on this game without first getting up early today to get the latest updates on the injury report as this team has been a M*A*S*H unit. I don’t love the news about their offensive line — but quarterback Case Keenum has been upgraded to probable with his foot injury along and even  Colt McCoy could be available to play at quarterback in this game as he has been upgraded to probable after suffering that season-ending leg injury last year. Remember, this was a team that was in first place in the NFC East last season before Alex Smith suffered his season-ending injury. And all three of the Skins losses this season have been to teams that made the playoffs last year. While injuries have really hurt this year, the roster is not bad at all. Washington has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. I am not quite ready to put Daniel Jones in the Hall of Fame after last week’s spectacular performance where he completed 23 of 36 passes for 336 yards with two touchdown passes. Jones’ mobility was like mana from heaven for head coach Pat Shurmer — but the Skins will be ready for his willingness to move with his feet this week. Getting Jones down on tape in a real NFL game will help the Washington defense this week (and they have a much better defense than the Buccaneers). Jones will miss star running back Saquon Barkley who will be out for at least a few weeks. That is not good news for a team that is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point spread win. The defense remains a significant problem for this team after allowing the Bucs to generate 499 yards last week. 355 of those yards came in the air — and New York has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games after allowing at least 350 passing yards. The Giants have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. This New York defense is last in the NFL by allowing 10.5 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and 24.2% of the completed passes they have allowed have been of at least 15 yards which is also the worst mark in the league. Now the Giants return home where they are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC East opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Washington is injured — but so are the Giants with them being without linebackers Alec Ogletree and Tae Davis being downgraded to being out for this game. Expect a close game where the Skins may pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Washington Redskins (255) plus the points versus the New York Giants (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (150) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (149). THE SITUATION: Nevada (3-1) has won two straight games with their 37-21 win at UTEP last week as a 14-point favorite. Hawai’i (3-1) also comes off a victory with their 35-16 win at home against Central Arkansas as a 17.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada’s season stats are skewed right now after they endured a 77-6 loss at Oregon in their second game of the season. But the Wolf Pack also have a nice upset victory over Purdue in Reno that opened up their season. Third-year head coach Jay Norvell had eleven starters return from last year’s 8-5 team that closed out their season by defeating Arkansas State by a 16-13 score. Norvell had to replace a three-year starter in Ty Gangi to operate his Air Raid offense. Redshirt freshman Carson Strong was tapped the opening day starter — and he orchestrated the comeback victory over the Boilermakers. After getting beat up in the next two games against the Ducks and Weber State, Strong did not play last week against the Golden Hurricanes but he will get the start tonight. Norvell has indicated that last week’s starter in senior Cristian Solano and former 4-star recruit at Florida State in Malik Henry may get the chance to play. The Wolf Pack are good at home where they have held their two opponents to just 328.0 total YPG. Nevada has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. The Wolf Pack have also covered their last 4 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in expected close contests with the point spread in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, Nevada has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Weeks Five through Nine of the season. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home. Additionally, the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Hawaii has eighteen starters back from last year’s team that finished 8-6 — and this returning experience helped them defeat Arizona and Oregon State in their opening two games of the season before they were crushed at Washington in their lone road game this season by a 52-20 score. The Rainbow Warriors are led by junior quarterback Cole McDonald who ran their Run-and-Shoot offense last season. But turnovers have plagued him this season as he has thrown nine interceptions already this season — and Hawai’i leads the nation with 15 turnovers this year. Turnovers will likely play a big role in this game as they face a Nevada defense that has forced 10 turnovers already this year. The Rainbow Warriors have committed at least two turnovers in all four of their games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after turning the ball over at least two times in three straight games. And while Hawai’i has forced only one turnover in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. The Rainbow Warriors are just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in Week Five to Nine of the regular season. Hawai’i has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i has lost eight of their last nine trips to Reno to face the Wolf Pack — and they will be in for a rude awakening regarding the weather. The forecast is for rain and temperatures dipping into the low-30s which will make operating that Run-and-Shoot offense that thrives in the balmy Maui weather difficult (while making turnovers even more likely). Nevada can lean on the ground game — and they will be facing a Rainbow Warriors that are allowing their opponents to average 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month with the Nevada Wolf Pack (150) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (113) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (114). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-10 loss at home to Michigan State last week as a 7.5-point underdog. Wisconsin (3-0) looks to build off their 35-14 victory at home over Michigan as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Northwestern caught an angry Spartans team that was looking to rebound from an upset loss at home to Arizona State the previous week by a 10-7 score. Expect head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s team to respond with a very strong effort this afternoon. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a double-digit loss at home. This Northwestern team is the most physical in the Big Ten — and they usually play smart so a sound fundamental effort is likely. This has been this team’s formula for success under Fitzgerald as they entered the season having won fifteen of their last sixteen games in Big Ten play. Twelve starters returned from last year’s group that finished 9-5 after winning the Big Ten West for the first time. Fitzgerald may have the most talented quarterback in the program’s history with sophomore Hunter Johnson who was a five-star recruit for Clemson before transferring to Evanston two years ago after losing the quarterback job to Trevor Lawrence. Johnson led an offense that generated only 266 total yards against Sparty last week — but Northwestern has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards in their last game while also covering the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last contest. Northwestern has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have won eight straight games straight-up on the road in conference play. The Wildcats are also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin may be due for an emotional letdown after one of their most dominating performances in a long time last week in what was a critical game on their schedule against the Wolverines. That was a huge game for the Badgers after being humiliated at Michigan the year before by a 38-13 score. But Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a double-digit victory over a Big Ten rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after a win by at least 17 points. And while the Badgers rushed for a whopping 359 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Additionally, Wisconsin will be without two safeties in Eric Burrell and Reggie Pearson in the first half of this game after they were penalized for targeting penalties last week.

FINAL TAKE: The Badgers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Wildcats. Northwestern has been a very dangerous dog under Fitzgerald with them pulling the upset straight-up in ten of their last eighteen games as a double-digit underdog. Wisconsin is peaking in terms of their value with the betting public right now after their high profile dominant win — and this offers us point spread value in what should be a competitive game. 10* CFB Northwestern-Wisconsin ABC-TV Special with the Northwestern Wildcats (113) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (124) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (123). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (1-3) looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 76-5 loss at Ohio State last Saturday as a 38.5-point underdog. Buffalo (2-2) comes off a 38-22 upset win over Temple last Saturday as a 14-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami has endured a brutal non-conference schedule so far this season with losses at Iowa, Cincinnati and then the Buckeyes last week sandwiched by their Week Two win at home over Tennessee Tech. This has been par for the course for head coach Chuck Martin in his sixth year with the program. Martin has communicated that his team was hit hard with injuries after their encounter with Ohio State — but he was also able to rest most of his starters for half of that game after what was a good first quarter where they at one point had a 5-0 lead before they fell off the proverbial rails. Look for Martin to have his team ready to play this afternoon in their first conference game of the season. The Redhawks return for the first time in three weeks after losing at Cincinnati by a 35-13 score before last week’s loss in Columbus. Miami has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 straight home games after losing their last two games on the road by double-digits. And while the Redhawks have yet to cover the point spread this season, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight contests. Dealing with injuries is nothing new for Martin after his team endured 39 starts lost to injury last season which was ninth-most in the FBS. Miami still finished 6-6 overall after going 6-2 in conference play. Martin has been masterful in getting his team ready to play against fellow Mid-American Conference competition as the Redhawks have won sixteen of their last twenty-two conference games. Miami has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against MAC foes. Expect his team to play tighter on defense after surrendering 601 yards to the powerful Ohio State offense. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. This is just the second home game for this team — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset as a double-digit underdog in their last game. The Bulls limited the Owls to just 31 rushing yards and 289 total yards overall — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. Fifth-year head coach Lance Leipold led this program to its first ten-win season in school history — but this year’s group returned just eight starters with the roster decimated by graduation, early departures to the NFL and some untimely transfers. The Bulls were a talented team last year but most of that All-Conference talent is now gone which makes this a rebuilding year for Leipold. Buffalo defeated Robert Morris to open the season before losing at Penn State and then being upset as a 5.5-point favorite at Liberty before last week’s triumph. The Bulls go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. And they are dealing with some injuries as well with the most notable being their lone returning starter at linebacker in James Patterson. In this expected close game, Buffalo also has issues in special teams with their punter averaging just 32.6 yards per kick and their placekicker having already missed four kicks.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has freshmen at quarterback in Brett Gabbert (Blaine’s brother) and Jackson Williamson but so too does Buffalo with redshirt freshman Matt Myers who completed 9 of 15 passes last week for just 62 yards with an interception. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to pass for more than 75 yards in their last game. While both Redhawks’ quarterbacks were banged up last week, in head coach Martin we trust in this one. Look for him to have his team ready for their conference debut on their home field after their gauntlet of a non-conference schedule. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Miami (OH) Redhawks (124) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (123). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (101) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (112). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 34-31 upset loss at home to Colorado last Saturday night as a 7.5-point favorite. California (4-0) comes off a 28-20 upset victory at Ole Miss last Saturday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona State was a prime candidate for an emotional letdown after their big 10-7 upset win in East Lansing two weeks ago against Michigan State as a 15.5-point favorite. The Sun Devils should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Arizona State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to a Pac-12 opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. I continue to be impressed with the job of Herm Edwards with this program. I was a skeptic that the former NFL player and head coach turned ESPN pundit would have success. Despite playing a ton of freshmen last year, the Sun Devils were usually competitive last year in a 7-6 season which included a bowl game. The biggest question mark this season for this team was at quarterback and defensive line — but Edwards seems to have found the answers at those positions. Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels is a dual-threat quarterback with a high ceiling who is improving with the mental aspects of his game on a weekly basis. And Arizona State limited a Spartans team two weeks ago that wants to win their big offensive line and rushing attack to just 140 rushing yards on 40 carries. Edwards has proven himself crafty as a head coach with an NFL mentality who has crafted a very productive coaches room with his assistants. And he has already loaded his roster with skill players like running back Eno Benjamin and a cadre of weapons at wide receiver. The Sun Devils should play better on defense after allowing the Buffaloes who gained 475 yards against them last week. Colorado averaged 6.81 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but Arizona State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP. The Sun Devils have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games as the underdog. And in their last 5 road games in expected low scoring games with the Total set at 42 or lower, Arizona State has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. Cal is undefeated this season after their big win at Mississippi — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game that finished Over the Total with that game’s number closing in the 42.5 range. The Golden Bears won that game despite being outgained by 92 yards with their defense surrendering 525 yards of offense. Cal was 15th in the nation last year by holding their opponents to just 317.2 total YPG. Seven starters returned from that group but they have taken a step back by allowing 366.5 total YPG which is just 61st in the nation. The Bears are only outgaining their opponents by +4.7 net Yards-Per-Game despite their perfect record. Cal pulled off the upset due to the efforts of quarterback Chase Garbers who completed 23 of 35 passes for 351 yards with four touchdown passes. But the Golden Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Head coach Justin Wilcox has done a great job with this Cal program in his third year with the program — but he has yet to propagate dynamic skill players on offense. Four starters returned from last year’s 7-6 team that was last in the Pac-12 in both scoring (21.5 PPG) and total yards (343.5 total YPG). Barbers has a good arm but he lacks mobility. Wilcox did not have a returning starter at running nor wide receiver. Now the Golden Bears return home where they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Sun Devils may have as much talent on defense as this Cal team this season — and they have definitely have more talent on the offensive side of the ball. Expect a close game with Arizona State having a real chance of pulling another road upset as they did against Michigan State. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Arizona State Sun Devils (101) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (110) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (109). THE SITUATION: Air Force (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 30-19 loss at Boise State last week as a 7.5-point underdog last Friday. San Jose State (2-1) looks to build off their 31-24 upset win in Fayetteville against Arkansas as a 20-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: The Spartans surprising upset victory was validation for a football program under head coach Brent Brennan that had lost twenty-three of their last twenty-five games in his first two seasons with the program. Brennan has played 48 freshmen in those two years in completely rebuilding this program. Yet this remains a team that returned thirteen starters from last year’s group that was outgained by -148 net yards in Mountain West Conference play. Improvement should have been expected from this team — but they have still have a long way to go. A big emotional letdown is likely for this team after they pulled off their first victory over a Power Five conference team since 2006 when they knocked off Stanford. San Jose State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Senior quarterback Josh Love enjoyed the best passing day in his career by completing 32 of 49 passes for 402 yards against the Razorbacks — but the Spartans are just 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. San Jose State has also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games in the month of September. I hate this situation for this team now. This is a very challenging travel schedule for this west coast team who had to travel east last week and now has to play on a short week on the road again. And one less day to prepare for the Air Force spread triple option certainly does not help things. San Jose State was torched by Army’s similar offense last year in a 52-3 loss where they allowed 341 rushing yards on 65 carries for a 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Spartans have been vulnerable against aggressive rushing attacks this season as well — Tulsa generated 256 rushing yards against them on 54 carries and three touchdowns back on September 7th. Air Force is averaging 316 rushing YPG this season behind junior quarterback Donald Hammond III who has jumpstarted this offense. In his five starts last season, Hammond III led an offense that averages 470 YPG with the team also running at a 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry clip. Hammond III is a great fit for the spread triple option of head coach Troy Calhoun given his arm strength and quick release which compliments his speed and power as a runner. There is no shame losing at Boise State on their blue field — and they matched the Broncos 355 yards of offense while controlling the football for 34:12 minutes. The Falcons held Boise State to just 95 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Air Force ranks 22nd in the nation by allowing just 91.7 rushing YPG — and they are limiting opposing rushers to only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons run defense that returned four of their top five tacklers from last season should make the Spartans one-dimensional with their passing attack tonight. Air Force also has a geographical on their home field in the high altitude of Colorado Springs, Colorado where they are 54-20 in their last seventy-four games. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams who are winning at least 50% of their games at home. This is just Air Force’s second game at home this season — and hosting this Spartans team playing with one less day of rest gives them a nice advantage.

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons were 5-7 last year with their seven losses determined by just -6.3 PPG. Five of their losses were determined by one scoring possession — so they could have finished with a much better record. Fourteen returning starters for a military academy football team is a very high number — and this team demonstrated their big potential this season with their 30-23 upset victory at Colorado earlier this month. Air Force is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points as the favorite. While I am cautious in laying this many points, I think the Falcons grinding and tricky rushing attack will overwhelm this Spartans team due for a letdown who are playing on a short week. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Air Force Falcons (110) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 27-24 upset loss at home to Detroit on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) remained unbeaten on Sunday with their 27-16 win over Denver as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have been hampered by injuries on both sides of the football. They will be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Marlin Jackson, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, and cornerback Ronald Darby for this game. While the team expects to get wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back for this game, the offense will miss Jackson who offers the team the deep threat they need to stretch out the opposing defense. Mike Wallace was supposed to fill this role last season — but his season-ending ankle injury limited their offense last year with the late acquisition of Golden Tate not really working as a remedy. Philadelphia averaged only 22.9 PPG which was just 18th in the NFL. The Eagles were also just 17th in the NFL in Red Zone production after leading the league in that level of production in their Super Bowl year. Philly did lead the NFL by averaging 32:25 minutes in time of possession — and controlling the clock to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field will likely be the plan tonight. The Eagles’ offense last week was slowed down by seven dropped passes. Philly did outgain the Lions by +86 net yards but surrendering a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown ultimately served as the difference in that game. The Eagles defense has been playing well despite the injuries. In their two road games this year, they have allowed 22.0 PPG along with just 329.7 total YPG. They have been particularly stingy against the run as they are allowing only 57 rushing YPG on 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. The 87 rushing yards the Lions generated against them was the most they have allowed all season —but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing ads in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Green Bay’s defense has been a pleasant surprise for them so far this season. They are tied for third in the NFL with four interceptions and 12 sacks — and the 11.7 PPG they are allowing this season is tops in the NFC. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. But the offense has remained a work in progress in the marriage between Rodgers and rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Green Bay is scoring only 19.3 PPG while averaging just 286.7 total YPG which is 28th in the league. Perhaps more tellingly, the Packers are converting on just 25% of their 3rd downs which is 29th in the league. Green Bay is running the ball more in this new offensive system — but they gained only 77 rushing yards on 23 carries last week. The Packers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Green Bay has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the NFC.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Green Bay’s Lambeau Field. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Green Bay NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 27-24 upset loss at home to Detroit on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) remained unbeaten on Sunday with their 27-16 win over Denver as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia will be desperate tonight to not fall to 1-3 this season. They have suffered two straight upset losses — both decided by one scoring possession — after they lost to the Falcons in Atlanta the week before for Sunday Night Football by a 24-20 score where they were laying a 1-point favorite. Injuries have battered this team — they will be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Marlin Jackson, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, and cornerback Ronald Darby for this game. Dealing with injuries is not new for head coach Doug Pederson and his coaching staff as the Eagles lost 198.5 adjusted games to injury last season which was the most in the NFL. Yet this Philly roster is one of the deepest in the league — and the quality of their overall roster helped them return to the playoffs last season to avoid becoming the ninth team in the last nineteen seasons to miss the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl the previous season. Philadelphia will be getting wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back for this game which will help after quarterback Carson Wentz saw seven of his passes dropped last week against the Lions. The Eagles dominated the Lions last week by outgaining them by +86 net yards. Philly has been tough with their run defense this season as they have held their three opponents to just 57 rushing YPG on only 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. The Eagles have not allowed more than 86 rushing yards in any of their three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Green Bay benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week in their win over the Broncos — that made up for them only outgaining the Denver by 2 yards. But the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. On the short week, the Eagles have a significant edge with their coaching staff preparing for this game versus the Green Bay rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Defenses have been adjusting to the Packers in the second half as they have only scored 13 of their 58 points this year in the second half. Green Bay has scored 21 and 17 points in the first half of their last two contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games after scoring at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has not yet clicked with the LaFleur’s system as the Packers are scoring only 19.3 PPG while averaging just 286.7 total YPG which is 28th in the league. The Green Bay defense has been a pleasant surprise this season — but they have also had Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco as their opposing quarterbacks. The Packers are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against fellow NFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has won their four Thursday night games with Pederson as their head coach. The Eagles won three of those games outright as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in all 4 of those games. Expect a close game with Philly having the chance to pull out this game even in Lambeau Field. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (104) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (103). THE SITUATION: Memphis (3-0) looks to build off their 42-6 win at South Alabama back on September 14th as a 20.5-point favorite. Navy (2-0) comes off a 42-10 win over East Carolina two Saturdays ago back on the 14th as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Midshipmen are looking to rebound from just their second losing season since 2003. Head coach Ken Niumatalolo has eight starters back from last year’s 3-10 team that lost nine of their last ten games after a 2-1 start to the year. Navy has lost sixteen of their last twenty-one games after starting the 2017 season 5-0 which ranked them 25th in the nation which was their highest national standing in Niumatalolo’s twelve years with the program. Perhaps part of the problem is fellow American Athletic Conference opponents are getting come comfortable defending their unique spread triple-option attack? Talent may be an issue on defense after this team surrendered 33.5 PPG which was the most points they have allowed since 2007. Niumatalolo hired a new defensive coordinator in Brian Newberry who ran the defense for the previous four seasons at Kennesaw State. Newberry wants to deploy an aggressive and attacking system — but he may not have the playmakers yet to execute this scheme against the better teams in the conference. The Midshipmen opened the season with an easy one against Holy Cross who they crushed by a 45-7 score before their big victory over the Pirates. But Navy may be due to a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their previous two games by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, the Midshipmen are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. This will be Navy’s first game away from home this season — and they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. Memphis has started the season strong with an opening 15-10 victory over Ole Miss laying 3 points and then an easy 55-24 victory over Southern before their road games against the Jaguars. The Tigers generated 530 yards of offense at South Alabama while holding them to just 248 yards of offense. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This offense does not seem to have missed a beat with junior quarterback Brady White back as the starting quarterback from last year’s team that scored 42.9 PPG while ranking 4th in the nation by averaging 523.1 total YPG. White is completing 72.2% of his passes while averaging 10.2 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdowns to two interceptions. But the exciting thing about this team in head coach Mike Norvell’s team in his fourth season with the program is the improved play of the defense. Memphis is allowing only 13.3 PPG along with just 226.3 total YPG this year. The Tigers were young on that side of the ball last year — they have eight starters back from that group that allowed -37.9 fewer Yards-Per-Game than in 2017. This year’s defense is allowing only 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry which is very encouraging when facing the Navy spread triple option. The extra days to prepare for this defense will also help defensive coordinator Adam Fuller for the Midshipmen attack — and Memphis has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games when playing off their bye week. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points including seven of these last eight situations.

FINAL TAKE: Norwell should have his team chomping at the bit to play this game after they suffered three net close losses determined by just one scoring possession last year. Memphis was 8-6 last year with three of those losses decided by a combined 5 points. One of those defeats was at Navy where they lost by a 22-21 score as a 6.5-point favorite. Look for the Tigers to get their revenge tonight. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Memphis Tigers (104) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-1) looks to build off their 16-14 win in Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Washington (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-21 loss at home to Dallas as a 6-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The biggest problem for this team has been with their offense as they have managed only one touchdown. Third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looks like he has taken a step back this season — he is completing only 58.3% of his passes. Perhaps in what is more telling, head coach Matt Nagy does not seem to trust Trubisky to move the ball with his arm given his play-calling in the first two weeks of the season. The Bears are averaging a mere 265.3 total YPG this season — and defenses are quickly adapting to the lack of a vertical passing attack given Nagy’s apparent discomfort in enabling Trubisky to take chances down the field. Trubisky’s best passing games last year were at home — so expect another conservative game plan from Nagy tonight as Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. This is likely the smart move given the outstanding defense that the Bears possess. Chicago is 4th in the league in total defense while also ranking 6th in rushing defense — and they have registered seven sacks in their first two games. The Bears held the Broncos to only a field goal in the first half last week — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Chicago has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Bears did allow 372 total yards last week as they bent frequently to the Broncos while rarely breaking — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total wit the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Washington has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two straight games. The Skins are ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football. The offense is on their third quarterback with Alex Smith out the year and Colt McCoy out with a leg injury. Case Keenum is solid but not spectacular — but he lacks dynamic weapons with running back Derrius Guice once again on Injured Reserve with a knee injury and tight end Jordan Reed still in the concussion protocol. And this offense really misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues to hold out — his absence has left the Skins’ offensive line a mess. They gained only 255 yards of offense last week against the Cowboys while rushing for only 47 yards. Washington has attempted only 30 rushing plays this season for a mere 75 yards. The Skins have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Washington was outrushed by -166 yards last week — and they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. The Skins have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. Frankly, Washington needs to play better on the defense. Missing Reuben Foster and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who are both injured hurts — but there is still talent on that side of the ball. The Skins have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be looking to establish their ground game to help put their quarterbacks in better positions to succeed. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). Best of luck for us — Frank. (Follow Frank on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper post regarding what team “identity” means and its connection to have a method for handicapping.)

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (490) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (489). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-21 loss at home to Dallas as a 6-point underdog last week. Chicago (1-1) looks to build off their 16-14 win in Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are precarious road favorites when playing more than 4 points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They were outgained by 99 net yards last week against the (winless) Broncos while losing the first down battle by a 27 to 16 margin but still managed to pull out that game. The biggest problem for this team has been with their offense as they have managed only one touchdown. Third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looks like he has taken a step back this season — he is completing only 58.3% of his passes. Perhaps in what is more telling, head coach Matt Nagy does not seem to trust Trubisky to move the ball with his arm given his play-calling in the first two weeks of the season. The Bears are averaging a mere 265.3 total YPG this season — and defenses are quickly adapting to the lack of a vertical passing attack given Nagy’s apparent discomfort in enabling Trubisky to take chances down the field. Trubisky was just 16 of 27 last week for 120 yards — and he only ran the ball once for 8 yards. Chicago’s offense was entirely dependent on their ground game as they rushed the ball 29 times for 153 yards — but they are just 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Of concern was also the Bears defense as they gave up 372 yards including 282 yards in the air which is not a good sign for this team. They are just 19-42-1 ATS in their last 62 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games in the month of September. Washington is a desperate team that needs to put together four straight quarters of good play after blowing leads in two straight games. Look for this team to rally with their most complete effort of the season tonight. The Skins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. They need to play better on defense after allowing 474 total yards with the Cowboys averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Play. Washington has covered the point spread in 8 straight games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Skins are still capable when playing at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games against the Skins. Expect a close game from a Washington team that really needs to get a win. 10* NFL Chicago-Washington ESPN Special with the Washington Redskins (490) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (489). Best of luck for us — Frank. (Follow Frank on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper post regarding what team “identity” means and its connection to have a method for handicapping.)

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (487) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (488). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (2-0) looks to build off their 27-9 win over New Orleans last week as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (1-1) comes off a 23-3 win in New York against the Jets on Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Now this team returns home with huge expectations this season given the accumulation of talent they have acquired on both sides of the football. But I worry that this organization has put the cart ahead of the horse when it comes to building a winning culture. With the personalities of Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham (among many) along with a rookie head coach in Freddie Kitchens, it is a volatile mix in Cleveland. They have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Browns are also just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record. And while this Cleveland team has a very good defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This team goes back not he road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games.

FINAL TAKE: Look for this to be a close game before the Rams’ eventually pull away. I don’t like the situation for the Browns — playing this game on a short week from Monday Night with the weight of the world on their shoulders with their thirsty fan base. The Rams have a significant edge in coaching with defensive coordinator Wade Phillips along with head coach Sean McVay battling wits with rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens with his coordinators, Todd Monken and Steve Wilks (who I like — but Phillips is the Dean of defensive coaches in the NFL). With LA also enjoying an experience edge with a host of big games under their belts, look for them to pull out the win. 10* NFL LA Rams-Cleveland NBC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (487) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (2-0) looks to build off their 27-9 win over New Orleans last week as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (1-1) comes off a 23-3 win in New York against the Jets on Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And despite gaining 375 yards of offense last week, the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield is experiencing some growing pains in this offense executing the passing game. He completed only 19 of 35 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown and an interception last week. He is dropping too far deep in the pocket on too many of his passing attempts. And when he stays in the pocket, he is too often bailout out with his left leg in his follow-through which is impacting is accuracy. Both of these bad habits can be attributed to his concerns about the opposing team’s pass rush. One of the big costs in acquiring wide receiver Odell Beckham was that had to ship off their solid right guard, Kevin Zeitler, to the Giants to complete the deal. Mayfield has been sacked eight times already this season — he has been sacked once in every ten pass plays this season as compared to his being sacked once every twenty pass plays last year. Those are ominous numbers when now facing Aaron Donald and this Rams defense. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is one of the best in the business — expect him to take Beckham away as a deep threat while daring Mayfield to be willing to be patient with his targets underneath. The Browns have a dynamic pass rush as well led by emerging star Myles Garrett who already has registered five sacks this season. Cleveland has held their first two opponents to just 300.5 total YPG. They return home where the Under is 15-6-1 in their last 22 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Browns have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Los Angeles is also playing outstanding defense after limiting the Saints to just 244 total yards last week (while knocking Drew Brees out of that game). The Rams have held their first two opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 293.5 total YPG. They have become a run-heavy team behind Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown who are both averaging over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry this season. But this Rams team is being challenged with their depth on their offensive line with a rash of injuries at that position. Rookie Jamil Demby, a sixth-round pick, may have to make his first professional start at right guard for Austin Blythe who is out with a left ankle. The LA offense is not as dynamic on the road where they scored a nice 28.4 PPG last season but averaged only 387.6 total YPG — and that was -4 PPG below their season average along with over -30 YPG less than their overall average. QB Jared Goff averaged 342.1 passing YPG at home last year — but that number dropped to just 238 passing YPG on the road. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have outstanding defenses. Both of these offenses have dynamic playmakers but are limited a bit given the respective state of their offensive lines. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-2) remained winless this season after their 28-26 upset loss at home to Seattle as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (2-0) comes off a 41-17 blowout victory at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was beating the Seahawks before Big Ben Roethlisberger suffered his season-ending elbow injury in that game. Now this organization is in a desperate situation with their franchise quarterback out and with them winless so far this season with a challenging trip out west on deck against an undefeated team. But the reason why we should have confidence that this football team has not thrown in the towel is that they traded valuable draft picks this week for Dolphins’ cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick who will offer the team an immediate upgrade in their secondary. The Steelers have a 10-6 straight-up record in their last sixteen games played without Roethlisberger — they are essentially a playoff team without him still. This team feels good enough about backup Mason Rudolph running the offense that they traded away their other young backup in Joshua Dobbs after the preseason. Rudolph completed 12 of 19 passes last week against Seattle for 112 yards with two touchdown passes. He will have the benefit of a strong offensive line as well. Look for the Steelers to rally around each other and head coach Mike Tomlin in this moment of adversity — they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games after an upset loss. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in a decisive 62 of their last 103 road games as the underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as the dog. And while Pittsburgh has allowed 61 points this season, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 25 points in their last game. San Francisco returns home after a successful two-game road trip out east with wins in Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. But this team has not enjoyed much of a home-field advantage at Levi Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This is a young team that does not have much of a track record handling success — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games as the favorite. Even without running back Tevin Coleman, the 49ers rushed for 259 yards last week against the Bengals defense — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards. Coleman will still be out this week with his ankle injury — but the bigger concern is with the fibula injury to left tackle Joe Staley that will keep him out for the next six to eight weeks. San Fran also has injuries on their defensive line after allowing the Bengals to pass for 291 yards. The Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is committing too many penalties right now — they are averaging 10 penalties per game which is accounting for 80 Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers may win this game — but this should be a dog fight against a desperate but veteran Steelers team with a winning culture. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (479) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Carolina (0-2) looks to bounce-back from their 20-14 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 6.5-point underdog back on September 12th. Arizona (0-1-1) looks to rebound from their 23-17 loss at Baltimore last Sunday as a 13-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a gut check game for this Carolina team after also losing their opening game of the season at home to the Los Angeles Rams by just a field goal. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing those two games at home by 7 points or less. Carolina has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 57 games after a point spread loss under head coach Ron Rivera. The team will be without quarterback Cam Newton who is being given time off given a bevy of injuries including his leg and his shoulder. Frankly, the Panthers will likely be better off with Kyle Allen under center since he is at least healthy. Newton is at his most effective when he offers a legitimate running option but his bum ankle has neutralized that part of his game as he only had one rushing attempt last week. Newton’s shoulder injury has negatively impacted his accuracy — and he has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last 178 pass attempts. Look for offensive coordinator Norv Turner to have a nice game plan for his second-year QB in Allen.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-1) looks to build off their 24-20 upset win over Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog last Sunday night. Indianapolis (1-1) comes off a 19-17 upset victory of their own at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Atlanta has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Falcons defense played well to shut down the Eagles offense as they allowed only 286 total yards. Philly managed to gain just 49 rushing yards on 21 carries — and the Under is a decisive 61-26-4 in their last 91 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. QB Matt Ryan passed for 320 yards victory — but they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now Atlanta goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total. Last week’s game finished below the 53 point Total as well — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 17 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the game finished Under the Total 11 times. Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total after an upset victory as an underdog. The Colts held the Titans offense to just 242 total yards including just 119 yards in the air. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. And while that game fell well below the 43.5 point total, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Colts return home for this one where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Indy will want to run the ball to keep the Falcons’ potent offense off the field. They managed only 288 total yards in their victory over the Titans. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon O/U Kickoff with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 24-20 upset loss in Atlanta last Sunday night as a 1-point favorite. Detroit (1-0-1) looks to build off a 13-10 upset victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit should be 2-0 if not for their 4th quarter collapse in Arizona where they allowed rookie quarterback Kyler Murray to rally his team from a 24-6 4th quarter deficit to eke out a tie. The Lions then upset the Chargers playing in an early 1 PM ET kickoff game despite getting outgained by a 424 to 339 yardage margin. Detroit is likely due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a narrow win at home by no more than a field goal. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 29 of their last 43 road games after a win by 6 points or less. Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The biggest issue with this team is their lack of playmakers on both sides of the football. Quarterback Matthew Stafford remains solid if not spectacular and a bit of a disappointment as a former number one pick in the league. He lacks targets in the passing game that demands a double-team. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Detroit’s defense has been built of capable playmakers but none strike fear in an offense. They are just 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents. Philadelphia will be looking to get back their winning ways after laying an egg in Atlanta. The Eagles are dealing with a host of injuries including their top two wide receivers in DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are both likely out for this game and defensive tackle Tim Jernigan out for four to six weeks. But this Philly team has one of the deepest rosters in the NFL — particularly on both lines of scrimmage. Quarterback Carson Wentz still has tight end Zack Ertz as well as a deep cadre of running backs. The Eagles enter this game 2nd in the NFL in 3rd down offense. And while they surrendered 310 passing yards last week to the Falcons, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. Philly did hold the Falcons to just 58 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Eagles have held their first two opponents to just 42 rushing YPG which is third-best in the NFL. Detroit has become a run-first offense under head coach Matt Patricia with Stafford becoming more of a game-manager. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. And don’t underestimate the value of the inside knowledge defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz possesses on Stafford after serving as his first head coach in his tour of duty as the Lions head coach from 2009 to 2013.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Philadelphia. The Eagles would likely be laying at least a touchdown if not for their injuries. While I don’t love the fact that they did not scrimmage in pads on Wednesday, the effect of that is probably overvalued. The Philadelphia depth along with their edges in coaching should lead them to a relatively easy victory. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (351) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (352). THE SITUATION: Colorado (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 30-23 upset loss at home to Air Force last Saturday as a 3-point favorite. Arizona State (3-0) pulled off a 10-7 upset victory at Michigan State last week as a 15.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: The Sun Devils pulled out that upset in East Lansing despite being outgained by 188 net yards. The Arizona State offense managed only 216 yards of offense against Sparty while picking up only fourteen first downs. If not for an extremely conservative offensive game plan from Michigan State along with a +1 net turnover margin that was critical in the wining this game. The Sun Devils have a talented freshman leading their offense in quarterback Jayden Daniels who coveted 15 of 26 passes for 140 yards against the Spartans defense. While the dual-threat QB has a high ceiling, he is still green — and he has two other fellow freshmen starting on the offensive line. The Arizona State looked shaky two weeks ago in a 19-7 victory over an FCS school in Sacramento State. These question marks on offense make the Sun Devils precarious favorites of at least a touchdown — they have not covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. Arizona State returns home to Tempe where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Head coach Herm Edwards is doing a fine job with this football team in his second season with the program. Fifteen starters return from last year’s group that was 7-6 — but that team also benefited from a +10 net turnover margin which was tied for 11th best in the FBS. That number was rather fortunate considering that their expected net turnover margin was projected at just +0.4 — and that -9.7 net differential in expected turnover margin with actual turnover margin was the 4th highest in the nation. The Buffaloes were caught flat last week as they went into halftime at home against the Falcons trailing by a 20-10 score. Colorado looked emotionally spent from their 34-31 comeback victory at Nebraska that required overtime two weeks ago. First-year head coach Mel Tucker inherited eleven starters from last year’s 5-7 team. But that group would likely have gotten to a bowl game if their star wide receiver, Laviska Shenault, Jr., had been healthy all season. After a dynamic start to the season that put him in the Heisman Trophy buzz, a toe injury limited his effectiveness in the second half of the season until he was finally shut down after nine games. He still caught 86 balls for 1011 receiving yards. So far this season, Shenault has caught 16 balls for 203 yards with two touchdown passes. He will be the most dynamic player on the field tonight. The Buffaloes also have an edge at quarterback in fifth-year senior Steven Montez who is completed 64.7% of his passes last year. The dual-threat QB is an NFL prospect with a significant edge in experience over Daniels.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 28-21 score in Boulder as a 2-point favorite. With the Buffaloes having a significant edge in experience at QB, expect a close game between these two teams in their opening game in Pac-12 play. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Colorado Buffaloes (351) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (352). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (3-0) remained undefeated this season with their 45-27 clubbing at home against Stanford last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 17-10 loss at Penn State last week as a 17-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knights have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread win. UCF is using their third-string (or fourth string) quarterback this season with freshman Dillon Gabriel getting the snaps. Senior QB McKenzie Milton is out the season with a knee injury and his backup, Darriel Mack, missed all of training camp with an ankle injury. Second-year head coach Josh Heupel brought in Brandon Wimbush from Notre Dame as a transfer student to compete for the starting job but Gabriel’s ability to operate the up-tempo RPO system inspired by the Art Briles school of offense has kept him on the field. But this is still a true freshman playing in a hostile environment for this contest. The Knights have played 4 straight games on the road Under the Total. Gabriel led an offense that generated 545 yards of offense against the Cardinal — but UCF has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Knights have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. While the offense has been getting most of the headlines for this UCF team, they have been outstanding on defense. The Knights limited the Cardinal to just 349 yards of offense last week. While they have allowed just 41 points in their three games this season, most of those points have been surrendered in garbage time in the season half. UCF has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Junior QB Kenny Pickett completed 35 of 51 passes for 372 yards in a losing effort last week — but the Panthers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Fifth-year head coach Pat Narduzzi received plenty of criticism for going for a field goal in the 4th quarter on a 4th-and-one play on the one-yard line — an attempt that was missed — rather than going for the potential game-tying touchdown. While he deserves all the heat for that decision, it demonstrated his confidence in his defense since he assumed his offense would get the ball back again. The former Michigan State defensive coordinator is overseeing a defensive unit this year that is allowing only 19.0 PPG along with just 303.7 total YPG — and that number drops to 261.0 total YPG in their two games at home. The Panthers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. But a troubling observation about this team is that they have not scored an offensive touchdown in the second half of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: Pitt has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. They will be looking to avenge a 45-13 loss at UFC last season as a 13.5-point dog. The Total of that game was in the 65.5 range — expect another lower scoring game in this one. 25* CFB Television Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Syracuse Orange (340) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (339). Syracuse (1-2) looks to bounce-back from their 41-6 loss at home last Saturday night to Clemson as a 28-point underdog. Western Michigan (2-1) comes off a 57-10 win over Georgia State as a 9-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ORANGE MINUS THE POINTS: Syracuse should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. There is no shame to losing the reigning National Champions —but that setback came after a brutal 63-20 loss at Maryland the previous week. Expectations were high entering the season in what was considered the best roster yet for head coach Dino Babers in his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters returned from last year’s 10-3 team that crushed West Virginia in the Camping World Bowl by a 34-18 score. Perhaps the loss to the Terrapins will help the team recover from the disappointment of not pulling the upset over the Tigers last week in a game they had circled on their calendar. The Orange need to get back to playing good football with sophomore quarterback Tommy Devito making good decisions, his wide receivers hanging on to the football, and the offensive line doing a better job of blocking. Syracuse has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two straight games by at least three touchdowns. They should get their offense going after only managing 187 yards against Clemson. The Orange have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not generating more than 275 yards of offense in their last game. And while the Syracuse defense allowed Clemson to average 8.6 Yards-Per-Play for 612 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.75 YPP — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after surrendering at least 475 yards in their last contest. The Orange do stay at home where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games. The Broncos may be just what the doctor ordered with their porous defense that allowed 50.8 PPG in their six losses last season. Western Michigan allowed 51 points along with 582 yards of offense in their 41-point loss to a Michigan State team that could not move the football last week in their meager 10-7 loss at home to Arizona State. That was the only Power Five conference opponent that the Broncos have faced so far this season. They did crush the Panthers last week with the help of a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Now the Broncos go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning losing record at home. Additionally, Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in expected shootouts with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Syracuse is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams outside the ACC — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 16 of their last 19 games against teams from the Mid-American Conference. The Orange soundly defeated the Broncos in Kalamazoo last August 31st by a 55-42 score. Look for a similar result this afternoon. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Syracuse Orange (340) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (339). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the USC Trojans (306). THE SITUATION: Utah (3-0) has won their first three games this season after their 31-0 shutout win over Idaho State last week as a 36.5-point favorite. USC (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 30-27 upset loss at BYU in overtime last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Utes have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Utah has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Utes have scored at least 30 points in all three of their games this season in what have been all easy victories by at least 18 points. The ceiling is higher for this Utah offense led by senior quarterback Tyler Huntley and senior running back Zack Moss. Those two helped the Utes score at last 40 points in four straight games during a stretch last year before they both suffered season-ending injuries. Moss has rushed for 371 yards in his three career contests against the Trojans. Huntley is completing 78% of his passes behind an offensive line that has not allowed a sack this year. Huntley has also not thrown an interception. This offense should put up plenty of points against a suspect USC defense that allowed BYU to generate 430 yards last week. The talent at the defensive line has declined under head coach Clay Helton’s tenure — and the secondary had no returning starters from last year along with eight newcomers at cornerback in the fall. Greg Johnson was the only cornerback on the roster with starting experience but he is listed as questionable as he goes through the concussion protocol. And the Trojans’ best defensive lineman, Christian Rector, is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury after not playing last week. The USC defense struggled against dual-threat QB Jorge Reyna to open the season so Huntley is poised to have a big night. Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 19 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. USC has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Trojans did generate 452 yards against the Cougars defense in that loss with freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis completing 24 of 34 passes for 281 yards. Slovis did throw three interceptions in that game — and USC has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they committed at least three turnovers. The Trojans have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This team is left with Slovis being under center after sophomore Jack Sears entered the transfer portal window after losing the starting gig to J.T. Daniels who then suffered a season-ending knee injury in that opening game against Fresno State. Slovis demonstrated he can operate the new Air Raid offense under head coach Graham Harrell in his first start two weeks ago as he passed for 377 yards three touchdown passes against Stanford. Additionally, the Over is 21-9-2 in the Trojans’ last 32 home games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight contests against each other Over the Total. USC will be feisty to win this game — but they may not be able to keep up with the Utah offense. Expect a higher scoring game. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the USC Trojans (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida International Golden Panthers (307) plus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (308). THE SITUATION: Florida International (1-2) looks to build off a 30-17 victory over New Hampshire last Saturday as a 13.5-point favorite. Louisiana Tech (2-1) comes off a 35-7 win at Bowling Green as a 12.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an urgent game for head coach Butch Davis’ team after they opened the season with losses at Tulane and at home to Western Kentucky. Expectations were high for this team entering the season as they returned sixteen starters from last year’s 9-4 team that defeated Toledo by a 35-32 score in the Bahamas Bowl. The Golden Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. And while they have yet to cover the point spread in their three games this season, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. This team was without their senior quarterback James Morgan last week but he has been upgraded to probable with his ankle recovering nicely. FIU has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Additionally, the Golden Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow Conference USA foes. Louisiana Tech played their best game of the season last week after suffering a 45-14 loss at Texas to being the season before struggling at home in a 20-14 loss to Grambling. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Louisiana Tech has been consistently good in the seven years under head coach Skip Holtz — but they rarely have been great in that period of time. The Bulldogs offense is skilled but lacks dynamic playmakers. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set at 49.5 to 56. Louisiana Tech has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: FIU is 8-3 in games decided by one scoring possession in Davis’ three seasons with the program. While maybe that suggests that the Golden Panthers are due for some regression when it comes to winning close games, this is a team that finds themselves in close contests. Florida International has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as the underdog. 10* CFB Florida International-Louisiana Tech CBS Sports Network Special with the Florida International Golden Panthers (307) plus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (1-1) looks to bounce-back from their 19-17 upset loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a 3-point favorite. Jacksonville (0-2) also looks to rebound from a 13-12 loss at Houston on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans managed only 242 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Colts despite playing on their home field. Quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 19 of 28 passes which is efficient — but they generated just 154 passing yards. Tennessee seems to have abandoned all hope in even demonstrating a drop-back passing game with Mariota — and that likely means that the whispers to have Ryan Tannehill replace him under center are legitimate since at least the former Dolphins quarterback can matriculate the football down the field. Defenses are already adapting to these tendencies by crowding the box to slow down the horizontal passing game along with the rushing attack led by Derrick Henry. These are not encouraging developments for an offense that scored only 19.4 PPG last season (27th in the NFL) while averaging just 312.6 total YPG (25th in the NFL). Head coach Mike Vrabel is likely to continue to rely on his defense that was 8th in the NFL last year by allowing only 333.4 total YPG while also ranking 3rd in the league by giving up just 18.9 PPG. The Titans limited Indianapolis to only 288 total yards last week. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game against an AFC South rival. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against AFC South foes. And in their last 7 road games when favored by no more than 3 points, Tennessee has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Jaguars have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. And in their last 7 games after a point spread victory, Jacksonville has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville is playing with a backup quarterback Gardner Minshew who was solid last week by completing 23 of 33 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass. But as the regular-season game tape begins to accrue on the rookie quarterback from Washington State, Minshew will experience growing pains. And he is a QB who could certainly use the benefit from a full week of practice given his inexperience at the professional level. He led an offense that managed only 281 yards last week. Now the Jags return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Jacksonville has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Head coach Doug Marrone will also be happy to lean on his defense that allowed only 19.8 PPG last year (4th in the NFL) while giving up just 311.4 total YPG (5th in the league). The Jaguars held Deshaun Watson and the prolific Texans passing attack to only 137 passing yards while registering four sacks — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey has requested for a trade this week — but he looks likely to remain on the roster for at least this game and he should be very motivated to play in front of a nationally televised audience as he auditions for his next team.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Jacksonville last season. These two teams split their two meetings last year with the Jaguars winning by a 9-6 score last September 23rd before the Titans avenged that loss on December 6th with a 30-9 victory. Expect another low scoring game. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (302) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (301). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-2) also looks to rebound from a 13-12 loss at Houston on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog. Tennessee (1-1) looks to bounce-back from their 19-17 upset loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Jacksonville finds themselves in a desperate situation after losing the first two games of their season. This team is seventeen months removed from playing in the AFC Championship Game. The Jaguars took a few steps back last season with a 5-11 mark — but they suffered four net close losses in games decided by one scoring possession. They were only outgained by -9.4 net Yards-Per-Game last season which generally equates with teams finishing with a 7-9 record. A plethora of injuries on offense along with a -12 net turnover margin (tied for 29th in the league) did not help matters. Jacksonville remains an elite defensive team that allowed only 19.8 PPG last year (4th in the NFL) while giving up just 311.4 total YPG (5th in the league). The Jaguars held Deshaun Watson and the prolific Texans passing attack to only 137 passing yards while registering four sacks along the way. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a game where neither team scored nor allowed more than 14 points. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less — and this includes them covering the point spread in three straight games after a loss by a field goal or less on the road. Jacksonville is playing with a backup quarterback Gardner Minshew who was solid last week by completing 23 of 33 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass. While I think the former Washington State quarterback has potential to be successful in the league, expect a heavy dose of running back Leonard Fournette tonight. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to an AFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss at home by 3 points or less. The Titans managed only 242 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Colts despite playing on their home field. Quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 19 of 28 passes which is efficient — but they generated just 154 passing yards. Tennessee seems to have abandoned all hope in even demonstrating a drop-back passing game with Mariota — and that likely means that the whispers to have Ryan Tannehill replace him under center are legitimate since at least the former Dolphins quarterback can matriculate the football down the field. Defenses are already adapting to these tendencies by crowding the box to slow down the horizontal passing game along with the rushing attack led by Derrick Henry. The ineptness of the Titans offense is illustrated by their failures on 3rd down — they have converted only three 3rd down plays in twenty chances this season. These are not encouraging developments for an offense that scored only 19.4 PPG last season (27th in the NFL) while averaging just 312.6 total YPG (25th in the NFL). Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also are just 16-34-3 ATS in their last 53 games again teams with a losing redo. And in their last 5 games against fellow teams from the AFC South, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars. 10* NFL Tennessee-Jacksonville NFL Network Special with the Jacksonville Jaguars (302) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (313) and the Tulane Green Wave (314). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-24 loss to Washington State last Friday played on a neutral field at NRG Stadium. Tulane (2-1) comes off a 58-6 blowout win at home over Missouri State last Saturday as a 31.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars are allowing 32.6 PPG along with 506.0 total YPG in their first three games this season — but two of those games were against two of the most potent offenses in the nation in the Cougars and Oklahoma. I have actually been a bit encouraged by the play of this unit that returned only four starters. An influx of six junior college transfers has helped new defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen begin to stabilize this unit. Houston has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The bigger concern for the Cougars has been integrating senior quarterback D’Eriq King into the first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen’s version of the Air Raid offense. Houston is averaging only 146 passing YPG this season (which includes a cupcake game against Prairie Valley A&M) which is 120th in the nation. King is completing only 54.5% of his passes which is almost a 10% decline from last season. King passed for just 128 yards last week against Washington State — and the Cougars have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. Houston did rush for 239 yards last week — they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The Cougars are averaging 239 rushing YPG this season with an incredibly consistent output of 241, 236, and 239 rushing yards this season — so expect more of the same from this team with the added benefit of a ground game moving the clock and keeping the Green Wave offense off the field. The Under is 7-3-1 in Houston’s last 11 games in the month of September. Tulane has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Green Wave held the Tigers last week to just 182 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Tulane defense has played well this season — they limited Auburn to 379 total yards which include a mere 207 yards in the air so their ability to limit the Cougars passing attack is pretty good. On offense, senior quarterback Justin McMillan has passed for only 424 yards in his three games with just two touchdown passes. The Green Wave have played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Tulane rushed for 298 yards in that contest last week — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Green Wave have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total after Houston’s 48-17 victory last season fell Under the 68 point Total. The Cougars offense is still working out some kinks this year — expect a lower scoring contest. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (313) and the Tulane Green Wave (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (290) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (289). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to rebound from an upset loss in their 17-16 setback at home to Buffalo where they were laying 2.5-points. Cleveland (0-1) also looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 43-13 upset loss at home to Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Browns entered this season with sky-high expectations after being just two years removed from a winless season. Despite all the talent on the roster, these players simply cannot fiat a culture change without going through the process of learning how to win games. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 46 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss at home. The Browns have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss by at least 10 points as a home favorite. Cleveland was completely undisciplined last week as they committed eighteen penalties that produced another 182 negative yards accompanying a -3 net turnover margin, the Titans were able to put up 43 points on the board. Facing an uninspiring opponent dealing with a bevy of injuries may not be the assignment that scares this overconfident team straight. As it is, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as the favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. And in their last 8 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. The Jets are a hot mess of M*A*S*H Unit right now with a couple of suspensions making this attrition even worse. Quarterback Sam Darnold is out weeks while he loses weight dealing with mono. Wide receiver Quincy Enunwa is on Injured Reserve with a neck issue. Three starters on the offensive line are questionable. Trevor Siemian will be the starting quarterback tonight — and he does have 24 career starts under his belt with his time in Denver. Running back Le’Veon Bell is dealing with a bum shoulder — but he has been upgraded to probable tonight. The defense is also dealing with some tough injuries headlined by linebacker C.J. Mosely and rookie defensive tackle Quinnen Williams out with a groin and an ankle. But I still expect an inspired effort from this group led by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who will be chomping at the bit to have his defense go after the quarterback he served as the interim head with last season. The Jets have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after a loss at home — and they have coved the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by 3 points or less at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a dog getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: This will be an emotional night for the Browns with them facing their ex-interim head coach in Williams — and this is also Odell Beckham’s first return to MetLife Stadium since being traded by the Giants in the offseason. This is also a must-win game for Cleveland with a brutal stretch of games coming up against the Rams, then a trip to Baltimore and San Francisco before hosting Seattle and New England and then a trip to Denver — so a loss tonight puts them in a very precarious situation. I don’t think this team has the maturity to convincingly win a game on the road against another desperate team. Expect a close (and ugly) game. 10* NFL Cleveland-NY Jets ESPN Special with the New York Jets (290) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (289). Best of luck for us — Frank (follow on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper where he looks back to explain why he, fortunately, passed on a tempting CFB situation on Saturday that perhaps looked too good to be true).

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 43-13 upset loss at home to Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (0-1) also looks to rebound from an upset loss in their 17-16 setback at home to Buffalo where they were laying 2.5-points.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets are a hot mess of M*A*S*H Unit right now with a couple of suspensions making this attrition even worse. Quarterback Sam Darnold is out weeks while he loses weight dealing with mono. Wide receiver Quincy Enunwa is on Injured Reserve with a neck issue. Running back Le’Veon Bell is dealing with a bum shoulder. Three starters on the offensive line are questionable. Trevor Siemian will be the starting quarterback tonight — and with check down Charlie in Adam Gase calling the plays, don’t be surprised if the former Denver starting quarterback never throws a pass past the first down marker. Even with Sam Darnold under center last week, the Jets offense managed just 223 yards in their first regular-season under Gase who is the master of 8-yard pickup on 3rd-and-12. The defense is also dealing with some tough injuries headlined by linebacker C.J. Mosely and rookie defensive tackle Quinnen Williams out with a groin and an ankle. But I still expect an inspired effort from this group led by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who will be chomping at the bit to have his defense go after the quarterback he served as the interim head with last season. Bell has been upgraded to probable so expect the Jets to give a healthy dose to the running back as they look to control the clock and keep the Browns’ offense off the field. New York has played 14 of their last 31 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss to an AFC East rival as a home favorite. The Jets have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of September. Gase’s teams in Miami also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total in September — and they played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to a divisional rival. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Browns have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least three touchdowns. The Cleveland defense did not play bad last week — they allowed only 339 total yards. But with eighteen penalties that produced another 182 negative yards accompanying a -3 net turnover margin, the Titans were able to put up 43 points on the board. The Browns should respond with a strong defensive effort after all that — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. On offense, Mayfield may not be 100% after suffering a thumb injury in that game. Moving forward, the Under is 5-1-1 in Cleveland’s last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: With both of these teams coming off upset losses last week, the Under is supported by an empirical angle that has been 77% effective over the last ten seasons. In games involving a team that suffered an upset loss facing an opponent that comes off a double-digit upset loss, these games then finished Under the Total in 30 of these last 39 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). Best of luck for us — Frank (follow on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper where he looks back to explain why he, fortunately, passed on a tempting CFB situation on Saturday that perhaps looked too good to be true).

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (288) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (287). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 28-12 loss at Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 32-27 win over Washington as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINT(S): Atlanta should respond with a strong effort after getting routed in the first half of that game by a 21-0 score. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after trailing by at least three touchdowns in their last game. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. While putting their rookie right guard, Chris Lindstrom, on Injured Reserve derails some of the plans this team had with their offensive line, the Falcons should get their offense cranking back at home in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Quarterback Matt Ryan oversaw a potent offense last season even with the deficiencies on their offensive line. The Falcons were 6th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 389.1 total YPG — and they have a healthy Devonta Freeman back in their backfield after he missed all but two games. The Falcons were also burdened with the third-worst starting field position in the NFL with their average starting point at their 26.3-yard line. Atlanta averaged 37.97 Yards-Per-Drive which was 4th best in the NFL. Ryan was more effective at home where he completed 72.7% of his passes while averaging 8.82 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and he tossed 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games as a home dog getting up to a field goal. Philadelphia has now failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of September.  The Philly pass defense was torched by Skins’ quarterback Case Keenum who passed for 380 yards against them. This is an area of concern for the Eagles after they ranked 30th in the NFL last season by allowing 269.3 passing YPG. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Those are ominous numbers when facing this Falcons team who were 4th in the NFL last year by averaging 290.8 passing YPG. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games are allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons were ravaged by injuries last year with eight major contributors to the team hitting the Injured Reserve list at one point in the season. With head coach Dan Quinn now on the hot seat in his fifth year in Atlanta, look for this team to play inspired football tonight. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Atlanta NBC-TV Special with the Atlanta Falcons (288) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 32-27 win over Washington as a 10.5-point favorite. Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 28-12 loss at Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles where slugging on offense in the first half by scoring only 7 points. Perhaps Carson Wentz and company were rusty after not getting much playing time in the preseason — but they exploded in the second half by scoring 25 points en route to 436 yards of offense against an underrated Washington defense. Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles defense also held the Skins to just 28 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 30 rushing yards. But the Philly pass defense was torched by the mighty Case Keenum who passed for 380 yards against them. This is an area of concern for the Eagles after they ranked 30th in the NFL last season by allowing 269.3 passing YPG. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Those are ominous numbers when facing this Falcons team behind Matt Ryan who was 4th in the NFL last year by averaging 290.8 passing YPG. Philadelphia goes on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have also played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 13-3-1 in the Eagles’ last 17 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Atlanta has played 32 of their last 48 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by at least two touchdowns. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. While putting their rookie right guard, Chris Lindstrom, on Injured Reserve derails some of the plans this team had with their offensive line, Ryan oversaw a potent offense last season even with the deficiencies on their offensive line. The Falcons were 6th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 389.1 total YPG — and they have a healthy Devonta Freeman back in their backfield after he missed all but two games. The Falcons were also burdened with the third-worst starting field position in the NFL with their average starting point at their 26.3-yard line. Atlanta averaged 37.97 Yards-Per-Drive which was 4th best in the NFL. Ryan was more effective at home where he completed 72.7% of his passes while averaging 8.82 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and he tossed 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. The Falcons scored a robust 29.6 PPG when playing at home last year.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of September. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. Expect a higher scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (283) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (284). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) looks to build off their 30-27 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 1.5-point favorite. New Orleans (1-0) comes off a dramatic last-second 30-28 win over Houston at home as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: The Saints were fortunate to pull out that victory over the Texans — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. And while their offense generated 510 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Despite his 370 passing yards in that game, the ole eyeball test has me worried that quarterback Drew Brees has lost arm strength which diminishes his capacities to throw the long ball — and that allows defenses to creep in a bit closer. Brees has also been a different quarterback when playing on the road versus at home in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. While Brees averaged 321.6 passing YPG last year with an 11.1 Yards-in-the-Air Average and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 21:1, those numbers plummet on the road where he averaged just 217.6 passing YPG with just a 7.0 Yards-in-the-Air average and just 11 touchdown passes. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Jared Goff, on the other hand, gets to play his first game back at home since he led his team to the 26-23 victory in New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game — and he plays much better on his home field. Goff was 7-1 at home last year while averaging 342.1 passing YPG with a 116.7 Passer Rating while passing for 22 touchdowns and just three interceptions. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints will have revenge on their minds for this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against the Rams. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in Los Angeles against the Rams. 20* NFL New Orleans-LA Rams Fox-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (283) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 33-3 loss at New England last Sunday night as a 5.5-point underdog. Seattle (1-0) looks to build off their 21-20 win at home over Cincinnati as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should respond with a strong effort after being embarrassed on national television. The Steelers have won eight of their nine games in the Ben Roethlisberger era straight-up after enduring a loss by at least 20 points. That number does not take into account the point spread — but it does point to the resolve this team should have this afternoon under his leadership. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by at least 21 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. I just think they got caught by a good team with a great defense — and playing in Foxboro did not help matters as that is a place where they have always struggled in the Roethlisberger and head coach Mike Tomlin era. The Steelers have a good defense that should take the next step this season after they drafted linebacker Devin Bush out of Michigan who gives them the speed in the middle of the field that they have lacked since the career-ending injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh allowed the Patriots to generate 465 yards last week with a 7.01 Yards-Per-Play clip — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. There is a concern that JuJu Smith-Shuster does not have the skills to take over the number one receiving job for the departed Antonio Brown. I think he will be fine — especially when Pittsburgh gets their rushing attack going. The Steelers only ran the ball 13 times last week for a meager 32 rushing yards. Look for Pittsburgh to get back to running the football behind their big offensive line — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 50 yards. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the NFC. Seattle faces a situational challenge having to fly to the east coast to play in the 1 PM ET window of games. Head coach Pete Carroll has done a good job of preparing his team for the body clock issues of these early Sunday games out east. However, the Seahawks have been poor starters under Carroll when it comes to meeting point spread expectations in the early part of the season. Seattle is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in the second week of the season. Furthermore, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games in the month of September. They were fortunate to escape last Sunday with a victory considering that they were outgained by a 429 to 233 yardage margin. Cincinnati dominated the Time of Possession — an aspect of the game that Carroll finds very important — as they held the ball for almost 36 minutes of that game. Seattle was able to survive given a +2 net turnover margin — yet they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after enjoying at least a +2 net turnover margin in their last game. It is not a good sign for the Seahawks defense that they allowed Andy Dalton to shred them apart for 418 passing yards with him averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt even without an injured A.J. Green at wide receiver. Dalton had a Passer Rating of 143.9 when targeting Seahawks cornerback Tre Flowers — expect James Washington or Donte Moncrief to have a big game this afternoon depending on who Seattle elects Flowers to cover (I doubt they will have him assigned to Shuster). Seattle is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games gains teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers. Despite their 10-6 record last year, they were a team that did not outgain their opponents in total yardage last year as they averaged 353.3 total YPG while allowing the same number. Look for an angry Pittsburgh team to take out their frustrations against the traveling Seahawks. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (277). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 21-20 narrow loss at Seattle last week as a 9.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-0) looks to build off their 31-17 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Cincinnati had a moral victory by outplaying the Seahawks in their own stadium as they outgained them by a whopping 429 to 233 yardage margin while holding on to the football for 35:50 minutes of that game. A -2 net turnover margin was what held the Bengals back in that game. Now this team returns home with renewed optimism in the post-Marvin Lewis era under new head coach Zac Taylor. The offensive-minded head coach did a great job to put quarterback Andy Dalton into positions to succeed as he completed 35 of 51 passes for 418 yards which was a career-high. That is a good sign for this team moving forward as they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. Additionally, this team has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bengals defense played well in shutting down the Seahawks ground game — Seattle wants to run the ball to control the Time of Possession yet that rushed for a mere 72 yards. That is another good sign for Cincy as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. San Francisco has stayed out east this week making their base camp in lovely Youngstown. I worry about how younger teams respond to being on the road for two straight weeks. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 50 road games coming off a victory by at least two touchdowns. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Niners are a trendy pick to see a significant improvement in their win-loss record this season — but quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did not have a good training camp and he continued to look rusty coming off knee surgery last week by passing for only 166 yards on 18 of 27 passing against the suspect Buccaneers defense. San Francisco generated only 256 yards of offense — but they scored two touchdown passes from pick-sixes at the hands of Jameis Winston. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have injuries at running back with Tevin Coleman out for San Francisco with an ankle and Joe Mixon questionable with an ankle. Mixon will be a game-time decision as he wants to take the field. The Bengals do have a quality running back still available in Giovani Bernard. Home field should make the difference with a big crowd expected to provide new energy for the Bengals who have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (156) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (155). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-17 loss at Ole Miss last Saturday as a 5-point underdog. Colorado State (1-1) won their first game of the season last week with their 38-13 triumph over Western Illinois as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for second-year head coach Chad Morris with his team not looking very good either last week or in their meager 20-13 win over Portland State in their opening game. Arkansas was just 2-10 last year in his first year with the program. Narrow 7-point losses to LSU and Texas A&M continued to four net close losses decided by one scoring possession suggested this team was much better than their record. A -10 net turnover margin along with a bevy of injuries did not help matters either. But Morris needs to have his team respond this week after getting outgained by the Rebels by -122 net yards due to their defense surrendering 483 yards of offense. The Razorbacks have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing by double-digits to an SEC rival. Look for the Arkansas defense to play better for their veteran coordinator John Chavis. While they allowed 237 rushing yards last week, they are then 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Returning home will help where the Razorbacks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games with the Total set at 63 to 70. Arkansas has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Don’t be surprised if Morris taps Nick Starkel to be the starting quarterback this afternoon after he completed 17 of 24 passes for 201 yards to spark the offense in the second half. The grad transfer from Texas A&M has been in competition with another grad transfer in Ben Hicks who played for Morris at SMU. Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home. And while the Rams have raced out to score 28 and 21 points in the first half of their first two games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 20 points in the first half of two straight games. Colorado State generated 585 yards last week against their FCS opponent — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 20 points in their last game. Additionally, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of last year’s 34-27 upset victory for Colorado State as a 14-point underdog on September 8th. This will be the Rams’ first true road game this season traveling to Fayetteville to face a Razorbacks team that will be using this revenge opportunity as a measuring stick for the development of the program in Morris’ second season. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Arkansas Razorbacks (156) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (111) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (112). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (2-0) looks to build off their 52-0 victory over Bowling Green last Saturday as a 25-point favorite. Mississippi State (2-0) has also won their first two games of the season after defeating Southern Mississippi last week by a 16.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Wildcats have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Most of those team trends were under the watch of their legendary head coach Bill Snyder who retired after last season. First-year head coach Chris Klieman takes over the program after winning four FCS national championships in five seasons at North Dakota State. Ordinarily, I ignore team trends when new head coaches take over — but Klieman is continuing Snyder’s philosophy of winning through defense and running the football. Kansas State has averaged controlling the football for 42 minutes per game in their first two contests — and keeping the opposing offense off the field while watching the clock move is a good formula for Unders. The Wildcats held the Falcons to just 140 yards of offense in their dominant win last week. Kansas State has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not giving up more than 20 points in their last contest. The Wildcats are averaging a whopping 347 rushing YPG in their first two games after generating 333 rushing yards against Bowling Green — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, Kansas State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they had played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 8 games in the month of September, the Wildcats have played 7 of these games Under the Total. Mississippi State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulldogs have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Mississippi State defense was bound to take a step back this season after returning only four starters and losing three players to the first round of the NFL draft. They have held their first two opponents to 387 total YPG. But they have still played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Second-year head coach Joe Moorhead is dealing with injuries on his offense with quarterback Tommy Stevens having to leave last game with a shoulder injury and his offensive line having multiple players banged up. Stevens has been upgraded to probable for this game but the Penn State transfer may not be at full strength. Moorhead will likely look to run the ball as well with his offense averaging 235 rushing YPG after gaining 210 yards on the ground last week. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Mississippi State stays home for this game where they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bulldogs have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State won the meeting between these two teams last year by a 31-10 score on the road in Manhattan. Expect this game to become a battle of Time of Possession with both head coaches looking to protect their defenses by trying to keep them fresh. 10* CFB Kansas State-Mississippi State O/U ESPN Special with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (111) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (109) and the Indiana Hoosiers (110). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (2-0) enters this game coming off their dominant 42-0 shutout victory over Cincinnati last Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. Indiana (2-0) is also undefeated so far this season after they crushed Eastern Illinois last week by a 52-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes offense generated 508 yards of offense against what had been considered a stout Cincinnati defense last week. Sophomore quarterback Justin Fields has fit right into first-year teach coach Jason Day’s offense. The transfer from Georgia has passed for 561 yards in his first two games while throwing nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also added 42 yards on the ground last week against the Bearcats while finding the end zone two times in displaying in his dual-threat capabilities. The Over is 3-0-1 in Ohio State’s last 4 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes also flexed their muscles on defense by holding Cincinnati to just 273 yards of offense. But this Ohio State defense has regressed as of late. They allowed 25.5 PPG last year which was the highest number they have allowed since 1999 while placing them a mediocre tied for 51st in the nation. Even worse, the 403.4 total YPG that the Buckeyes allowed last year was the most they have allowed in 50 years. Nine starters return from that unit that is now operating under new defensive coordinators in Jeff Hafley and Greg Mattison who was poached from Michigan to help with recruiting given his knowledge of the midwest as well as his Super Bowl ring coordinating the Ray Lewis Baltimore Ravens over a decade ago. Frankly, there has been a drop off in recruiting over the years at linebacker and defensive back. So while the Buckeyes held the Bearcats to just 273 yards of offense last week, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Ohio State has also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road. And in their last 5 games played on field turf, the Over is 3-1-1. Indiana has also been impressive on offense after gaining 555 yards last week against Eastern Illinois. The Hoosiers have then played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Indiana will push the tempo against Ohio State with the hopes of tiring out their athletes on defense. They averaged one play per 22.8 seconds last season which was the 20th fastest tempo in the FBS last year. The third-year head coach has quarterback talent at his disposal with junior Peyton Ramsey back after making all twelve starts last season along with freshman Jack Tuttle who was a four-star recruit who transferred from Utah. But Allen and offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer decided on freshman Michael Penix, Jr. to be their starter given his strong arm and dual-threat running capabilities. He played in three games last year before suffering a season-ending injury that allowed him to redshirt the season. All three quarterbacks played last week but it will likely be Penix under center for this game with Ramsey possibly getting in the game as a change of pace or in mop-up work. The Hoosiers only allowed 116 yards last week to that FCS opponent so let's take that with a grain of salt. Indiana has played 15 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also played 25 of their last 32 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Hoosiers returned seven starters on defense but it was from a group that allowed their opponents to average +28 YPG above their offensive YPG season average last season which was 93rd worst in the nation. Indiana has played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in Big Ten play.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State won last year’s meeting by a 49-26 score as a 27.5-point favorite in Columbus. While Indiana may need garbage time to do it, I do expect them to approach that 26 scoring figure at home this season in what looks like a more dynamic offense. But the Buckeyes will likely reach 40 points in this one — and the Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams when playing in Bloomington. With Indiana playing at a fast tempo and Ohio State happy to take the extra possessions, expect a higher scoring game. 25* CFB Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (109) and the Indiana Hoosiers (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (107) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (108). THE SITUATION: Washington State (2-0) has won their first two games this season after their 59-17 win over Northern Colorado last Saturday as a 43-point favorite. Houston (1-1) bounced-back from their nationally televised loss at Oklahoma by defeating Prairie View A&M by a 37-17 score as a 36-point favorite. This game will be playing on a neutral field at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE WASHINGTON STATE MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Mike Leach returned thirteen starters from last year’s team that finished 11-2. The biggest challenge Leach had in the offseason was finding his new quarterback after he found so much success with grad transfer Gardner Minshew who now finds himself the starting quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The expectation was that Leach would use another grad transfer Gage Gubrond who starred at Eastern Washington. But an impressive fall camp compelled Leach to tap fifth-year senior, Anthony Gordon, as his starter. In Leach, We Trust at this point when it comes to operating his version of the Air Raid offense. He has long been preparing for the post-Luke Falk era who was a three-year starter for this program. He brought in Gordon and Trey Tinsley (another fifth-year senior) as junior college transfers two years ago — and he believes in competition with the Gubrond transfer along with recruiting a talented younger quarterback in redshirt freshman Cammon Cooper. Gordon has validated Leach’s decision as he has thrown for 884 yards with nine touchdown passes and just one interception in his first two starts. Gordon found nine different receivers last week and looks well-equipped to run Leach’s offense. With the top four receivers back from last year along with talented rusher and pass-catching threat in running back Max Borghi along with a strong offensive line that returned four starters from last year, this offense should continue to put up big numbers — and that makes this Cougars team dangerous even when playing on the road. Washington State has covered the points read in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. These Cougars generated 594 yards last week — and not only have they covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game but they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Gordon has passed for 481 and 507 passing yards in his two starts — and Washington State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 325 passing yards in two straight games. These Cougars have raced out to fast starts as well as they have scored 24 and 35 points in the first half of their first two games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 20 points in the first half in two straight games. Washington State usually fares well in these expected higher scoring games as well as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set at 70 or higher. Gordon and this Air Raid offense should shred this Houston defense that surrendered 686 yards to the Sooners in their first game. While Oklahoma makes many defenses look bad, these Cougars’ defenders made it easy for Jalen Hurts in his debut with his new team as he had wide-open wide receivers all night. Houston returned only four starters from last year’s defense while losing future NFL players at all three levels of the unit making this a major rebuilding job for new defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen. I put little stock in their holding Prairie Valley A&M to just 318 yards of offense last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points. Houston has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by at least 17 points. Furthermore, while these Cougars raced out to a 34-10 lead last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last contest. Houston potentially has a dynamic offense of their own with senior D’Eriq King under center — but he has struggled at times to get in synch with the new offensive system of first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen. King passed for only 139 yards last week on 15 of 26 passing against an FCS opponent while not rushing for positive yards. That is not a good sign for what is shaping up to be a shootout — and this Washington State defense has been much improved over the last few seasons after seeing improvements in points allowed in four straight games. Six starters return from that unit for second-year defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys from a group that led the FBS by generating sacks in 14% of their opponents in Passing Down situations. Washington State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State usually thrives in situations like this — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in September while also covering the point spread in 5 of their last 6 non-conference games. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on field turf. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (107) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (104) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (103). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (2-0) looks to build off their 41-21 win at Rice last week as a 20-point favorite last Friday. North Carolina (2-0) looks to build off their 28-25 upset win at home to Miami (FL) last Saturday as a 5-point underdog. This is officially considered a non-conference game when it comes to these in-state rivals who wanted to get on each other's schedule again despite being in opposite divisions in the ACC — so the result will not count for the conference record of either team.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS MINUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels have been a nice story to start the season with their prodigal son in head coach Mack Brown returning to the program he had great success with (before taking the Texas job) — they have pulled off two straight upset victories over South Carolina and then the Hurricanes last week. But with this North Carolina now playing their first true road game of the season, look for the bubble to burst tonight. Fourteen starters returned from last year’s 2-9 team that imploded last year in Larry Fedora’s seventh season with the program with injuries and suspensions. Fedora clearly lost the locker room — and things could have been much better without a 2-8 record in games decided by one possession over the last two seasons. But the talent level has declined on the defensive side of the football over the years with the group Brown inherited being on the small side. The Tar Heels surrendered 309 passing yards to the Hurricanes last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Since 2013, North Carolina has also finished last or second to last in run defense in the ACC. Brown has entrusted the offense to a true freshman in Sam Howell who completed 16 of 24 passes for 274 yards against the Miami defense. This will be his first start in a hostile environment after the neutral site game with South Carolina was played in Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium. This remains a program that is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the month of September. The Tar Heels have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in expected high-scoring contests with the Total set at 63 or higher. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Head coach Dave Clawson returns twelve starters from last year’s team that finished 7-6 after their 37-34 victory over Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl. That Demon Deacons team was also hit hard by injuries with 34 starts lost from initial starters. Clawson has the decisive edge at quarterback in this game with junior Jamie Newman seizing the job in the offseason after winning three of his last four games last year playing in relief for the injured Sam Hartman including winning MVP in their bowl game. Newman completed 21 of 27 passes last week for 317 yards with three touchdown passes against Rice. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in expected close contests where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Demon Deacons have only committed one turnover in their first two games as well — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest is dealing with some injuries with running back Cade Carney and wide receiver Kendall Hinton both having issues. Freshman running back Kenneth Walker stepped up last week in Carney’s absence last week but the senior has been upgraded to probable for tonight. Hinton is doubtful with his hamstring injury but Newman still has two reliable targets in wide receivers Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington. 10* CFB North Carolina-Wake Forest ESPN Special with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (104) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to San Francisco on Sunday. Carolina (0-1) comes off a 30-27 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams where they closed as a small +1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Jameis Winston was not magically transformed in his first game under new head coach Bruce Arians as he completed just 20 of 36 passes for 194 yards while throwing three interceptions in that loss to the 49ers. Arians has had success with some big names quarterbacks in the past — but the growth of Peyton Manning did not demonstrate itself until his second season with Arians while Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer did not see their big bumps in play until their third with the coach. The Buccaneers generated only 295 yards of offense in that game with one of their touchdowns coming from a 15-yard interception return. But the encouraging aspect of that loss to San Francisco was the improved play of the defense under first-year defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. After ranking 27th in the NFL by allowing 383.4 total YPG, Bowles defense limited the 49ers to only 256 total yards. This defense had nowhere to go but up after being at the bottom of the league over the last two seasons — but this group was also hit hard by the injury bug as they lost 92 adjusted games to injury according to the analytics (which was the most in NFL history using that measurement). Arians and Bowles also significantly remodeled this defense with draft picks and free-agent acquisitions headlined by bringing in Ndamukong Suh. The Niners put 31 points up on the board but two of those touchdowns came from two pick-sixes surrendered by Winston (which was clearly a topic of conversation with Arians this week). As it is, Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total suffering an upset loss at home by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Bucs have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Panthers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Quarterback Cam Newton was not very impressive in that loss as he completed 25 of 38 passes for just 239 yards with zero touchdown passes and an interception while failing to gain positive rushes with his legs. While head coach Ron Rivera claims Newton is completely healthy, he did injure his leg in the preseason which might be slowing him down now. Furthermore, Newton may not be fully recovered from the shoulder problems from last year which severely limited his effectiveness in the second half of last season — there was talk at one point of the team shutting down their franchise quarterback for the entire season like Indianapolis did with Andrew Luck two years ago. Newton enjoyed a sensational month of October in his first season under offensive coordinator Norv Turner before things went south when the team lost seven of their last eight games with Newton’s arm strength limited with his shoulder injury. But according to the DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders, the Panthers have only ranked in the top-ten in offensive efficiency just once in their last five seasons with their average finish being 16th in the NFL — so this will likely remain a middling offense. Moving forward, Carolina has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games played in Carolina Under the Total. With the Total set in the high 40s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to San Francisco on Sunday. Carolina (0-1) comes off a 30-27 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams where they closed as a small +1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay should respond with a strong effort tonight as they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Bucs actually outgained the 49ers last week by 39 net yards by it was a -2 net turnover margin stemming from three interceptions from Jameis Winston that made the difference in that game. San Francisco scored two touchdowns from interceptions in that game. First-year head coach Bruce Arians inherited a team that was probably much better than their 5-11 record suggests. The Buccaneers were ravaged by injuries last season as they lost 109.3 adjusted games to injury including 92.0 games on defense which was the highest in NFL history according to that metric. Turnovers put this team too far in a hole last year as well as their -18 net turnover margin was second-to-last in the league. Tampa Bay had a -3 net close losses in their games decided by one scoring possession — and they outgained their opponents by +32.1 net YPG which typically translates into a 9-7 season. One of Arians' main assignments is to get Winston to reduce his turnovers so that has absolutely been a topic of a few conversations this week. The encouraging aspect of that loss to San Francisco was the improved play of the defense under first-year defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. After ranking 27th in the NFL by allowing 383.4 total YPG, Bowles defense limited the 49ers to only 256 total yards. Arians and Bowles also significantly remodeled this defense with draft picks and free-agent acquisitions headlined by bringing in Ndamukong Suh. The Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Week Two of a new season. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Quarterback Cam Newton was not very impressive in that loss as he completed 25 of 38 passes for just 239 yards with zero touchdown passes and an interception while failing to gain positive rushes with his legs. While head coach Ron Rivera claims Newton is completely healthy, he did injure his leg in the preseason which might be slowing him down now. Furthermore, Newton may not be fully recovered from the shoulder problems from last year which severely limited his effectiveness in the second half of last season — there was talk at one point of the team shutting down their franchise quarterback for the entire season like Indianapolis did with Andrew Luck two years ago. Newton enjoyed a sensational month of October in his first season under offensive coordinator Norv Turner before things went south when the team lost seven of their last eight games with Newton’s arm strength limited with his shoulder injury. But according to the DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders, the Panthers have only ranked in the top-ten in offensive efficiency just once in their last five seasons with their average finish being 16th in the NFL — so this will likely remain a middling offense. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the NFC. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a Thursday night.

FINAL TAKE: The road team has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The underdog has also covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these NFC South rivals. Expect a close game between these two teams. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Carolina NFL Network Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-0) also looks to better themselves this year after suffering a 6-10 record last season. Oakland (0-0) looks to improve from their 4-12 campaign last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos will bring a very good defense into Oakland tonight under first-year head coach Vic Fangio. The former Chicago defensive coordinator is one of the best defensive minds in the business — and Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay both claim that his coverage schemes are the most difficult to decipher. He inherits a defense with great potential after ranking 13th in the NFL by allowing only 21.8 PPG. Over their last three games, the Broncos held their opponents to just 286 total YPG with rookie Bradley Chubb playing very comfortably next to Von Miller at linebacker. Denver will need their defense to play well given that they scored only 13.0 PPG while averaging just 313.7 total YPG over their last three contests. The offense is also undergoing a system change with first-year offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello installing a run/play-action based attack. But the former 49ers’ quarterback coach’s highest experience of calling plays was at the FCS level so there may be some growing pains early on as he gets comfortable with new quarterback Joe Flacco. The hope of team president John Elway is that Flacco will offer the veteran leadership under center that he once did for this franchise which was then replicated with Peyton Manning leading the team a third Super Bowl championship. But Flacco has seen is adjusted net yards per passing attempt decline in each of his last four seasons which raises concerns that the 34-year old has seen a decline in his skills. His lack of mobility in the pocket is also at odds with where many offenses are moving in the modern NFL. Flacco will be working under a retooled offensive line that is replacing 36 starts from last year’s group. The hope is that offensive line coach Mike Munchak will coach this group up — but there are questions regarding the talent level of this unit with left tackle Garrett Bolles being a disappointment in his first two seasons and second-year center Connor McGovern coming off a disappointing rookie season. A slow start is likely for this team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 8 of their last 9 opening weeks to a new season Under the Total. The Under is also 4-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 5 games on the road. Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new season Under the Total. The Raiders also played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as the underdog. The big news for this team is that will not be playing this season with Antonio Brown as their best weapon on offense. Oakland also has issues on their offensive line tonight with both expected starters, Richie Incognito and Gabe Jackson unavailable to play: Jackson is dealing with an MCL injury while Incognito is serving a two-game suspension. That is not good news for an offense that failed to score at least 20 points nine times last year — and they averaged just 15.3 PPG along with 282.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Raiders have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total as an underdog. They also have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Oakland has played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents — and these two teams have played 5 straight meetings Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-0) looks to improve from their 4-12 campaign last season. Denver (0-0) also looks to better themselves this year after suffering a 6-10 record last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: It should be an energetic environment in the Coliseum in what will be the last home opener for these fans before the franchise relocates to Las Vegas. Oakland is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football. This should be an improved football team in the second year under head coach Jon Gruden with groups usually making a big jump in Year Two under new systems. I also expect this group of players to rally around each other to play inspired football in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. It is hard to call his departure to New England to be a big loss since he never really practiced with the team in the preseason. Tyrell Williams was a nice pickup from the Los Angeles Chargers which upgrades the wide receiver corps from last season and tight end Darren Waller looks poised to enjoy a breakout season after a strong training camp. But I expect the gem in this offense to be rookie running back Josh Jacobs who was sensational for Alabama in what was often a reserved role under head coach Nick Saban. Look for Gruden to fully unleash Jacobs now. The Raiders have also covered the point spread in 3 of the last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Denver is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in the month of September. The Broncos should improve under new head coach Vic Fangio who has finally received a chance to be a head coach. Fangio is one of the best defensive coaches in the business but it often takes a year for his players to fully embrace his complex schemes. The offense is also undergoing a system change with first-year offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello installing a run/play-action based attack. But the former 49ers’ quarterback coach’s highest experience of calling plays was at the FCS level so there may be some growing pains early on as he gets comfortable with new quarterback Joe Flacco. The hope of team president John Elway is that Flacco will offer the veteran leadership under center that he once did for this franchise which was then replicated with Peyton Manning leading the team a third Super Bowl championship. But Flacco has seen is adjusted net yards per passing attempt decline in each of his last four seasons which raises concerns that the 34-year old has seen a decline in his skills. His lack of mobility in the pocket is also at odds with where many offenses are moving in the modern NFL. Flacco will be working under a retooled offensive line that is replacing 36 starts from last year’s group. The hope is that offensive line coach Mike Munchak will coach this group up — but there are questions regarding the talent level of this unit with left tackle Garrett Bolles being a disappointment in his first two seasons and second-year center Connor McGovern coming off a disappointing rookie season. These are all troubling issues for a team that failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road. Denver also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC West — and they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 appearances on Monday Night Football. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when not laying more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with Oakland. With the Raiders motivated by the home crowd and to prove themselves with the Brown drama behind them, look for this team to play inspired football tonight. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (479) and the New Orleans Saints (480). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) takes the field again after an 11-5 season that ended with a 21-7 loss at home to Indianapolis in the first round of the AFC playoffs. New Orleans (0-0) enter this season coming off a 13-3 campaign that ended in bitter disappointment with the no-call pass interference in the NFC Championship Game that eventually ended in a 26-23 loss in overtime to deny their opportunity to return to the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints averaged 30.4 PPG last season which is one of the reasons that the Total is set in the 50s for this contest. But New Orleans closed out last season playing 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. Over their last three games, the Saints scored only 19.0 PPG while averaging just 334.7 total YPG. It appeared that quarterback Drew Brees tired as the season moved on. But this is also a team that relied on their ground game to burn time off the clock to keep their defense fresh and off the field. This was a possession-based offense under head coach Sean Payton — and this will likely continue tonight with Deshaun Watson the opposing quarterback. It was not just the home stretch of the season where the Saints’ offense slowed down — they averaged only 19.6 PPG over their last seven contests. Another problem for this offense was that it became apparent that the team lacked a reliable third option after wide receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara. The organization attempted to address that situation with the free-agent signing of tight end Jared Cook after his breakout season with the Raiders. Maybe — but Cook was the beneficiary of an offense that lacked significant threats at wide receiver (which is why Oakland signed Antonio Brown and Tyrel Williams at that position in the offseason). The conventional was once that this New Orleans offense thrived when playing on field turf — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on turf. The Saints have also played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Houston started slowly last season as they scored only 19.7 PPG in their first three games of the season. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Texans’ last 12 games in the month of September under head coach Bill O’Brien — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season. Houston also scored only 19.0 PPG over their final three games last season culminating in their disappointing effort at home against the Colts in the playoffs. The offense suffered a big blow with the injury to running back Lamar Miller. Acquiring Duke Johnson was helpful but his skills are more as a receiver than as a rusher — and the recently added Carlos Hyde has failed to stick with his previous three teams in the league. The Texans will lean on their defense that was tied for 4th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.8 PPG. This defense will still be good despite trading away Jadeveon Clowney as this move will allow the talented Whitney Mercilus to take over his role on the defense next to J.J. Watt.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total as the dog getting 3.5 to 7 points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (479) and the New Orleans Saints (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (480) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (479). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (0-0) enter this season coming off a 13-3 campaign that ended in bitter disappointment with the no-call pass interference in the NFC Championship Game that eventually ended in a 26-23 loss in overtime to deny their opportunity to return to the Super Bowl. Houston (0-0) takes the field again after an 11-5 season that ended with a 21-7 loss at home to Indianapolis in the first round of the AFC playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should be very fired up to get the bad taste out of their (and their fans) mouth from that disastrous finish in the NFC Championship Game. The Saints scored 31.6 PPG at home last year while averaging 391.6 total YPG — and they outscored their opponents by +7.1 PPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when laying 3.5 to 7 points. While it looked like quarterback Drew Brees tired last year as the season went on, he was on fire for the first half of the year as they won ten of their first eleven games. The Saints have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the first half of the regular season. Yet this is also a team that has lost five straight opening games in a row. After getting upset at home last year to Tampa Bay, this New Orleans team should be very focused to start this season with a decisive victory. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. I like the trades they made in the preseason to bring on Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills in the Jadeveon Clowney move — while they might have mortgaged their future, they improved their team this year. However, it might take some time for Tunsil to get completely in-synch with his mates on the offensive line along with quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Texans are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Houston has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games played in a dome.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on Monday Night Football. Look for the Saints to win comfortably. 10* NFL Houston-New Orleans ESPN Special with the New Orleans Saints (480) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) and the New England Patriots (478). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-0) looks to get back to the postseason after they were left on the outside looking in after a 9-6-1 campaign last year. New England (0-0) lifted the Lombardi Trophy once again last year with their 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots won the Super Bowl on the strength of their outstanding defense that limited the powerful Rams offense to just 260 total yards. This young unit is only getting better. New England held their last three opponents to only 295.0 total YPG. The Patriots’ defense was also very tough to move the ball against when playing at home in Gillette Stadium where they limited the visitors to only 17.9 PPG along with just 321.2 total YPG. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as the favorite laying 7 or fewer points. But don’t be surprised if the Patriots are not crisp on offense. Tom Brady is adjusting to a new philosophy after the retirement of tight end Rob Gronkowski. It has not been a smooth preseason for Brady in getting comfortable with his wide receivers. Demaryius Thomas has been injured along with rookie first-round draft pick N’Keal Harry. Josh Gordon has been cleared by the NFL to be eligible to play once again in the league but he did not take much part of training camp. And then the team signed Antonio Brown yesterday who will not be eligible to play tonight since the league deadline for rosters this week already passed. As it is, New England uses the first few weeks of the regular season to continue to install their offense — so this will very much be a work in progress. Expect the Patriots to rely on their power running game to keep the Steelers offense off the field (and that will keep the clock moving). New England has played 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Under the Total. Pittsburgh had an underrated defense last season that led the NFL with 52 sacks. The Steelers limited their home hosts to just 22.5 PPG last year along with only 325.0 total YPG — and they held their last three opponents to just 311.3 total YPG. This defense will improve with the addition of rookie first-round draft pick Devin Bush who provides them the ball-hawking linebacker they have lacked since the career-ending injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and this includes them playing 9 straight games on the road Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 16th in Pittsburgh where the Steelers pulled off a 17-10 upset win as a 2.5-point underdog. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) and the New England Patriots (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (478) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (477). THE SITUATION: New England (0-0) lifted the Lombardi Trophy once again last year with their 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh (0-0) looks to get back to the postseason after they were left on the outside looking in after a 9-6-1 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England starts slow in September, right? That was my first reaction when looking at this matchup from afar. But let’s look closer as to how the Patriots have faired in their five previous openers — all at home — after winning the Super Bowl in the previous season. And these are all in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era, of course. In a situation very similar to this one, New England covered the point spread as a 6-point favorite hosting Houston in 2018 (after their comeback victory over Atlanta in the Super Bowl) by a 27-20 score despite the storyline of Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien knowing all the Belichick secret sauce. The Patriots were clocked in 2017 by Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs by a 42-27 score (as an 8-point favorite) after they defeated Seattle in the Super Bowl (when the Seahawks did not continue to feed Marshawn Lynch as the goal line). In 2005, New England beat Oakland by a 30-20 score as a 7.5-point favorite. In 2004, the Patriots beat Indianapolis with Peyton Manning by a 27-24 score laying 3 points. Finally, in 2002, New England upset the Steelers as a 2.5-point underdog in the idyllic days when the conventional wisdom was that the Pats were fortunate to upset the St. Louis Rams behind a young QB that was only drafted in the 6th round. That makes New England 3-1-1 ATS in their previous five home openers when celebrating a Super Bowl win. While that does not make us zombies to take the Patriots in this spot, it should make us take serious pause regarding the “start slow” theory for the defending champs. In fact, New England is 27-22 ATS in their last forty-nine games in the first two weeks of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 40 of their last 58 home games when laying 3.5 to 7 points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when laying no more than a touchdown. Additionally, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Pittsburgh is actually the slower starting team under head coach Mike Tomlin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opening weeks to a new season. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games in the month of September. The assumption with this team is that the offense will be just fine without Antonio Brown with JuJu Shuster easily becoming the go-to wideout with Donte Moncrief and James Washington all ready to step up. Those are all roles none of these players have proven in the past that they can handle — so, in practice, this might be easier said than done. The Steelers averaged only 20.3 PPG in their last three games last season — and they also only scored 23.5 PPG on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have been the thorn in the side for this Pittsburgh team more often than not. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 meetings with Pittsburgh — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Foxboro to play New England. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-New England NBC-TV Special with the New England Patriots (478) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) enters the new season looking to improve on a 5-11 campaign last year. Dallas (0-0) has Super Bowl expectations after a 10-6 regular season before losing in Los Angeles to the Rams in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs by a 30-22 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys have the swagger of a team that believes they will pick right up where they left off after losing on the road to the eventual NFC representative in the Super Bowl in the Rams. But teams that treat Week One of the new season as just the carryover of the previous week of last year tend to get bit — Chicago was the latest example of this phenomenon on Thursday night when they were upset at home against a divisional rival in the Packers. As it is, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening weeks to a new season. This is a new that has some kinks to still work out with a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is back with the team this week after being given his new contract despite two years remaining on his deal. But not only will he have some game rust but there has not been much practice time for him to get back into synch with QB Dak Prescott and the rest of this offense. Elliott will likely get 20 to 25 touches in this game. The Cowboys host this contest but they have only failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Dallas defense is a concern as well entering the new season. They entered that playoff game with the Rams having allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.1% of their passes since Week 13 with those QBs averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Pass Attempt along with seven touchdown passes to just one interception. They also had registered just five sacks in their previous five games before failing to sack Jared Goff even once in that loss. The Cowboys run defense then allowed the Rams (even with an injured Todd Gurley) to rush for 273 yards on 48 carries for a robust 5.69 Yards-Per-Carry average. Here comes Saquon Barkley who was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year by rushing for 1307 yards while averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. While it would be foolish to read too much into preseason numbers, I am not ignoring how efficient the Giants’ offense was in the preseason with all four of their quarterbacks under center in the second year under offensive coordinator Mike Shula. New York led all teams in the preseason with nine touchdowns and 119 total points while averaging 305.5 passing YPG and 393 total YPG. Shula’s schemes were working — I do not expect this offense to suffer from the sluggishness that we saw on Thursday from both the Packers and the Bears after their offensive starters did not play much in the preseason. QB Eli Manning got plenty of reps in August after playing in the first three preseason games. While the hype around rookie Daniel Jones intensified, what has continued to go under the radar is the fine season Manning enjoyed last year where he completed 66% of his passes for 4299 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions in what was one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Golden Tate will not be available in this game given his PED suspension for the first four regular-season games but Sterling Shepard is listed as probable despite his thumb injury — and tight end Evan Engram is poised for a breakout season in his third year in the league. The defense should be much improved with the additions of Jabrill Peppers (in the Odell Beckham trade) along with the drafting of Clemson’s massive defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and Georgia cover cornerback Deandre Baker in the first round of the NFL draft. New York has covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: New York has certainly had this opening game circled after getting swept by the Cowboys last year. The Giants played in twelve games last year decided by one scoring possession — and they lost eight of those contests for a -4 net close loss number. They should be very competitive in this contest (and don’t be shocked if they follow Green Bay’s lead and pull off the road upset against a divisional rival coming off a playoff run — but still take the points for some insurance). 25* NFL NFC East Game of the Month with the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) enters the new season looking to improve on a 5-11 campaign last year. Dallas (0-0) has Super Bowl expectations after a 10-6 regular season before losing in Los Angeles to the Rams in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs by a 30-22 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys scored 24.4 PPG while averaging 365.2 total YPG last season. Much of those numbers were without the services of wide receiver Amari Cooper who they acquired midseason from the Raiders. The former Alabama star was just what the Dallas offense needed as it provided quarterback Dak Prescott a legitimate target who could still get open against the opposing teams best man-to-man defender. The Cowboys scored 27.3 PPG while averaging 369.0 total YPG in their last three games of the season. Cooper’s presence also forces opposing defenses to not play eight defenders in the box to slow down running back Ezekiel Elliott who is back with the team this week after being given his new contract despite two years remaining on his deal. The initial plan is for Elliott to play 20 to 25 snaps — and he should be effective since it is pretty seamless for running backs to get back into the flow of the offense even without much practice time. Dallas has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home. The Cowboys have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow opponents from the NFC East. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against NFC foes. The Giants offense will center around Saquon Barkley who was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year by rushing for 1307 yards while averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The last time we saw the Cowboys run defense, they allowed the Rams (even with an injured Todd Gurley) to rush for 273 yards on 48 carries for a robust 5.69 Yards-Per-Carry average. While it would be foolish to read too much into preseason numbers, I am not ignoring how efficient the Giants’ offense was in the preseason with all four of their quarterbacks under center in the second year under offensive coordinator Mike Shula. New York led all teams in the preseason with nine touchdowns and 119 total points while averaging 305.5 passing YPG and 393 total YPG. Shula’s schemes were working — I do not expect this offense to suffer from the sluggishness that we saw on Thursday from both the Packers and the Bears after their offensive starters did not play much in the preseason. QB Eli Manning got plenty of reps in August after playing in the first three preseason games. While the hype around rookie Daniel Jones intensified, what has continued to go under the radar is the fine season Manning enjoyed last year where he completed 66% of his passes for 4299 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions in what was one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Golden Tate will not be available in this game given his PED suspension for the first four regular-season games but Sterling Shepard is listed as probable despite his thumb injury — and tight end Evan Engram is poised for a breakout season in his third year in the league. The Giants have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing in Dallas. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (455) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (456). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) looks to improve their 7-9 record from last season where they missed the playoffs. Philadelphia (0-0) comes off a 9-7 season where they lost in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs in a 20-14 loss in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDSKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles are a trendy pick to return to the Super Bowl with quarterback Carson Wentz healthy again at quarterback. But after playing much in the preseason, Wentz made still be a bit rusty for this opening game after not playing in last year’s playoffs because of injury. Timing is important when executing Run-Pass Option plays so the lack of repetitions in the preseason exhibition games where the conditions more closely approximate the regular-season atmosphere (as compared to inter-team scrimmages which remain controlled environments). Philadelphia was 5-3 at home last year but they only outscored their eight guests by +2.1 PPG — so asking them to cover a point spread of more than a touchdown against a division rival is asking a lot of this team. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of September. Washington is an ugly dog opening the season after the highly publicized holdout of their left tackle Trent Williams that remains unresolved. The Skins are also without one of their best-receiving targets in tight end Jordan Reed who is still in the concussion protocol. And the new Washington quarterback is Case Keenum who no one gets excited about. But the Skins have running back Derrius Guice healthy again who looked poised for an outstanding season before suffering a season-ending leg injury last year. Washington also has a very underrated with Alabama alumni Da’Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen up front and Josh Norman still patrolling the secondary. The Skins held their home hosts to only 20.2 PPG last year which helped them be dangerous road warriors where they won four of their games. This unit should be improved with the addition of first-round draft pick in defensive end Montez Sweat from Mississippi State and strong safety Landon Collins from the Giants via free agency. Washington has covered the point spread in 3 straight games on the road getting 7.5 to 14 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 games in the month of September, the Skins have covered the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: Washington certainly had this game circled in the offseason after being swept by the Eagles in their two regular-season games by 28-13 and then 24-0 scores. That shutout loss at home on December 30th really stung — look for the Skins to be a very tough out for Philly this afternoon. 10* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Washington Redskins (455) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). THE SITUATION: Tulane (1-0) enters this game looking to build off their 42-14 win over Florida International as a 3-point favorite back on August 29th. Auburn (1-0) eked out a 27-21 win over Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Saturday against Oregon.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Freshman quarterback Bo Nix was shaky in his collegiate debut — he completed only 13 of 31 passes for 177 yards. Head coach Gus Malzahn kept the playbook limited with his freshman with the team doing little to stretch the field against a Ducks defense that is certainly not elite. While I expect Nix to get more of the playbook tonight, it is telling that Malzahn did not feel comfortable in his quarterback to start airing the ball out — even when they were trailing for most of that game with Oregon. But perhaps that is because he had complete confidence in his defense that returned seven starters including an outstanding defensive line from a unit that ranked 14th in the nation last year by holding their opponents to just 19.2 PPG. The Tigers held the Ducks with their Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Justin Herbert to just 332 yards of offense in that victory. Moving forward, Auburn has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Now the Tigers return home from that game played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total. Auburn has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September after last week’s game fell below the 55.5 point Total. Furthermore, the Under is 18-7-2 in the Tigers’ last 27 games against teams outside the SEC — and the Under is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. Tulane has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with eight days of rest and preparation. The Green Wave generated 545 yards of offense against the Golden Panthers under senior quarterback Justin McMillan. Tulane has then played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. The Green Wave gained 350 of those yards on the ground as they flexed their muscles in controlling the line of scrimmage — and this will likely be the strategy in pulling this upset. Tulane plays at a fast tempo under new offensive coordinator Will Hall — but running the football still shortens the game with the clock continually moving. The Green Wave have played 5 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. Tulane has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams outside the American Athletic Conference — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams from the SEC. 25* CFB ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas State Bobcats (354) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (353). THE SITUATION: Texas State (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 41-7 loss at Texas A&M two Thursdays ago as a 33.5-point underdog. Wyoming (1-0) comes off a 37-31 upset victory at home over Missouri as a 15-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s victory was the result of a number of very fortunate events for them. They surrendered 537 yards to the Tigers while gaining just 389 yards of offense — and 136 of those yards came off two long broken tackle touchdown runs of 61 and 75 yards. The Cowboys enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin in that game while scoring on a 30-yard fumble recovering. Wyoming only generated 15 first downs while giving up 28 first downs to Mizzou. Laramie is often a difficult place to play for teams traveling from out east — playing 7200 square feet above sea level is a challenging experience for players unfamiliar with those conditions. The Cowboys are 23-15 straight-up in their last thirty-eight games at home. But the flip side of that coin is that Wyoming is just 9-26 in their last thirty-five games on the road. It is even worse for this team in the rare times they are favored away from home as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games laying 3.5 to 7 points. QB Kelly Bryant torched this Cowboys defense for 423 yards — and they have then failed to chef the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Wyoming had one of the most underrated defenses in the nation last year that ranked 19th in the nation by allowing just 326.2 total YPG but they lost five multiyear starters from that team. Furthermore, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played in the month of September. I am comfortable giving Texas State a pass last week after getting blown out on the road to Texas A&M. This team should be much better from their 3-9 team from last season with nineteen starters back from that group. First-year head coach Jake Spavital along with offensive coordinator Bob Stitt should get this offense moving sooner rather than later. The Bobcats suffered three net close losses decided by one scoring possession which obscured that they were only outgained by -60.8 net YPG in Mountain West Conference play which usually produces a much better record than their 1-7 conference mark. Texas State did not score in the first half of their game with the Aggies — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. The Bobcats have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not scoring double-digits in their last game — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming will be mistaking a mistake if they take Texas State lightly — but it will likely be difficult for them to not suffer an emotional letdown after knocking off an SEC team. The Bobcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Don’t be surprised if Spavital rallies his team to pull the upset this week — but take the points for valuable insurance. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Texas State Bobcats (354) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (353).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (314) minus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (313). THE SITUATION: Purdue (0-1) looks to rebound from a 34-31 upset loss at Nevada last Friday night as an 11-point underdog. Vanderbilt (0-1) enter this game coming off a 30-6 loss at home to Georgia as a 22-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue held a 24-7 halftime lead over the Wolf Pack along with a 31-14 third-quarter lead before a rash of turnovers let Nevada get back into that game before they stole that game with a last-second field goal. A -5 net turnover margin spoiled the Boilermaker’s 519 to 404 net yardage edge in that game on the road. Third-year head coach Jeff Brohm should ensure his team responds well in this game — they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Purdue has also won 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. The Boilermakers have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss. Now Purdue returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Twelve starters return from last year’s 6-7 team that got crushed in the Music City Bowl to Auburn by a 63-14 score but who also upset Ohio State earlier in the year by a 49-20 score. The Boilermakers are led by senior quarterback Elijah Sindelar who completed 34 of 52 passes for 423 yards and four touchdown passes last week. Purdue should move the ball again against this Commodores defense that surrendered 481 yards to the Bulldogs last week. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in the last game. Purdue has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the month of September — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Big Ten. Vanderbilt may struggle to pick themselves off the mat from their loss to Georgia has this have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns against an SEC rival. Head coach Derek Mason had to replace a four-year starter at quarterback in Kyle Shurmur in the offseason. He brought in grad transfer Riley Neal from Ball State who won the job over Shurmur’s backup last season in Deuce Wallace — but Neal might have very well lost his starting gig with the Cardinals if he had stayed with that program. Neal completed 14 of 25 passes but for only 85 yards last week while leading an offense that generated just 225 total yards. The Commodores have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. Vanderbilt was 6-7 last year after losing to Baylor in the Texas Bowl by a 45-38 score. Mason has only twelve starters back from that team — and only two of the top seven tacklers on defense returned. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. The Commodores have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: This is an important non-conference game for both teams who do not want to start the season 0-2 with challenging conference games looming which will make returning to a bowl game difficult. Purdue has better starting talent than Vandy — and home-field advantage should help them win this game by more than a touchdown. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Purdue Boilermakers (314) minus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). THE SITUATION: Missouri (0-1) looks to bounce-back from an upset 37-31 loss at Wyoming last Saturday despite being a 15-point favorite. West Virginia (1-0) comes off a 20-13 win at home over James Madison as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Missouri raced out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter while dominating the yardage battle with the Cowboys by a 144 to 28 margin. But then the turnover bug hit the Tigers with Wyoming taking full advantage to go into halftime with a 27-17 lead. Missouri outgained the Cowboys by a dominant 537 to 389 yardage margin but their -3 net turnover margin cost them the game — including a fumble that Wyoming returned for a 33-yard touchdown. The Tigers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss on the road laying at least a touchdown — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, Missouri has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 33 of their last 49 home games after a loss on the road. The silver lining for this team was the strong play under center of quarterback Kelly Bryant. The former Clemson quarterback completed 31 of 48 passes for 423 yards with two touchdowns. The transfer looks to be a fine replacement for the graduated Drew Lock who was drafted by the Denver Broncos. Thirteen starters returned from an 8-5 team last year with seven joining Bryant on offense and six starters along with five of the top seven tacklers back on defense. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread 8 of their last 11 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. West Virginia escaped suffering an upset loss to a James Madison team that ranks #2 in the nation in the FCS. But it is not a good sign for this team that the Dukes dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage. That does not bode well when now traveling to face an SEC team with five offensive linemen that all weigh at least 310 pounds. The Mountaineers survived that game through special teams and turnovers. West Virginia blocked a field goal and recovered a muffed point en route to a +3 net turnover advantage. The Mountaineers only generated 13 first downs against the Dukes defense while losing the yardage battle by a 328 to 294 margin. This is a football program in transition after head coach Dana Holgorsen departed on his own volition to take the head coaching job at Houston after an 8-4 season that finished with a 34-18 loss to Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl. Perhaps Holgorsen saw the writing on the wall this year with only three starters returning on offense from a group that lost its top five players including QB Will Grier, their top three wide receivers, and left tackle Yodney Cajuste. The new head coach is Neal Brown who did a good job at Troy — but only after enduring a 4-9 record in his first year rebuilding that program. Brown brought in Oklahoma grad transfer Austin Kendall to be his starting quarterback — but he kept him on a short leash least week with him mostly dinking-and-dunking to completing 27 passes of his 42 attempts for 260 yards. West Virginia only rushed for 34 yards in that game which is not a good sign traveling on the road to Mizzou — they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight-up win.

FINAL TAKE: West Virginia is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They face a more talented team that will be very angry after suffering a bad upset loss on the road. 25* CFB ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Marshall (1-0) looks to build off their 56-17 win over VMI last Saturday as a 44-point favorite. Boise State (1-0) is riding high after pulling off a 36-31 upset win in Tallahassee against Florida State as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos found themselves trailing by 24-6 and 31-13 scores in the second quarter before skunking the Seminoles in the second-half by a 17-0 score to pull off that 18-point comeback for the upset win. Florida State head coach Willie Taggart blamed a lack of conditioning for his team’s collapse with many players dealing with cramps in the August Florida heat. Boise State will not receive similar luck this week against this well-coached Marshall team in the tenth season under head coach Doc Holliday. The key for this Broncos team this year will be the play of their quarterback after seeing their four-year starter in Brett Rypien finally graduate and move on to the NFL in the offseason. The highly touted true freshman, Hank Bachmeier, played as great as could possibly be expected on Saturday by completing 30 of 51 passes for 407 yards. But this sets up this very young quarterback and the rest of this team to suffer a huge emotional letdown after last week’s second-half triumph. Remember, these are the same players that dug that 18-point hole. Despite the mystique of the blue field in Boise, the Broncos have not been a very good team relative to point spread expectations at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. This remains a team that lost a number of important pieces on offense last year from their 10-3 team. Besides replacing the four-year starting quarterback, the Broncos lost their workhorse running back, Alexander Mattison, who rushed for over 1400 yards last year along with their top two receivers. These veterans helped the offense convert on 52.5% of their 3rd downs which was 3rd best in the nation — that is a number that is bound to regress. Boise State is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The defense returns seven starters but lost four of their top five players in tackles-for-loss. But this is a unit that only picked off seven passes which is the fewest for this program since 1968. The Broncos were also third-best in the nation by recovering 74% of the fumbles they saw on the field. If that number regresses back to the expected 50% mean, this team probably does not win 10 times last year. Marshall should be very excited to prove that they belong in the conversation regarding the top non-Power Five conference teams in the FBS. They return fourteen starters from last year’s 9-4 team that concluded their season by crushing South Florida in their stadium by a 38-20 score in the Gasparilla Bowl. Quarterback Isaiah Green led an offense that generated 503 yards against the Bulls — he enters his sophomore year with confidence who will likely take a big step in his development. Green completed 18 of 28 passes (to eleven different targets) for 238 yards and four touchdown passes while adding another 46 yards on the ground in a good tune-up for this team. The Thundering Herd bring an underrated defense into this game as well with six starters back from last year’s group that was tied for 27th in the nation by limiting opponents to just 338.7 total YPG. The Marshall run defense ranked 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 104.3 rushing YPG — and this was no fluke after ranking 19th in the nation in run defense in 2017. The Thundering Herd held VMI to only 56 rushing yards while outrushing them by 222 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +200 yards. Marshall has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in fifteen straight games — so they will likely force the true freshman quarterback to beat them. The Thundering Herd forced 24 turnovers last season — don’t be surprised if an overconfident Bachmeier makes some mistakes tonight. Holliday usually has his team ready to play in the early part of the season — they are 15-7-3 ATS in their last 25 games in the month of September.

FINAL TAKE: Marshall embraces the role of the underdog — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games getting the points which include them covering the point spread in five of their last six games on the road as an underdog. Expect the Thundering Herd to keep this game closer than expected. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (451) and the Chicago Bears (452). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) looks to improve on a disappointing 6-9-1 campaign last year. Chicago (0-0) enters the new season looking to build off their 12-5 season that culminated in their heartbreaking 16-15 loss in the NFC Wildcard playoff game at home in Soldier Field against Philadelphia where a missed field goal that hit the uprights cost them the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It may be surprising to some that the oddsmakers have installed the Over/Under for this game to begin at 46 (or higher) in most locations. The Bears only had three games all of last season where the Total was set at 46 or higher. Chicago led the NFL last year by allowing just 17.7 PPG. The DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders to measure defensive efficiency ranks that Bears’ defense last season as one of the ten best ever since 1998. And while there are good reasons to be bullish on the defense again this year with Khalil Mack taking part in a full offseason, negative regression remains highly likely. Historically dominant defenses more often than not find it difficult to maintain that uber-elite level of play. Chicago ended opposing drives with an interception in 14.8% of their drives which was not only the best mark in the NFL but the highest mark in the last four seasons. This defense is simply not likely to kill as many drives with interceptions this year. This defense suffered four big losses in the offseason. The first two were with their coaching staff with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio taking the head coaching job in Denver with him taking defensive backs coach Ed Donatell with him. Donatell is an outstanding skills development coach. Sean McVay considers the Fangio defenses the most difficult to scheme against given the sophisticated ways he disguises his coverages. Remember, Fangio was the defensive architect for those outstanding 49ers defenses in the Jim Harbaugh era. Chuck Pagano takes over as defensive coordinator — and while he had good defenses in his tenure as the coordinator in Baltimore, only one of his six defenses in his tenure at Indianapolis ranked in the top half of the NFL. Chicago also lost two good players in their secondary in strong safety Adrian Ames and nickel back Bryce Callahan. Ames was the best tackler in their secondary while Callahan provided elite slot coverage skills. Replacements Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Buster Skrine are serviceable but still downgrades in talent. On offense, second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky did his best work at home where he led an offense that scored 26.7 PPG while averaging 365.7 YPG which was over +20 net YPG above their season average. Trubisky enjoyed an encouraging sophomore campaign in the league where he made significant strides after a shaky rookie campaign under NFL Coach of the Year Matt Nagy. Over his last four regular-season games, Trubisky averaged a nice Passer Rating of 102.4. He should have success against this Packers defense that Football Outsiders ranked as fourth-worst in the NFL last year with their metrics. This unit did add Ames from the Bears via free agency to bolster their secondary — but this group has also seen attrition with them cutting veteran defensive lineman Mike Daniels and then losing starting linebacker Oren Burks to a pectoral injury. Green Bay drafted Rashan Gary as the 13th pick in the first round of the NFL draft — but he struggled in training camp while adapting to a new position at outside linebacker which is a strange way to deploy a player who was at best at Michigan when playing defensive tackle. The Packers allowed their home hosts to score 29.4 PPG last year while averaging 374 total YPG. But the Green Bay offense should see significant improvement in an updated offense of rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers has a down year last season while clearly fed up with previous head coach Mike McCarthy. But don’t underestimate the negative impact of the knee injury he sustained early in the season. With a chip on his shoulder in the aftermath of the McCarthy dismissal, Rodgers looked poised for a big bounce-back season. The Packers averaged 383 YPG on the road last year which was over 10 YPG more than what they averaged at home in Lambeau Field. Green Bay has played a decisive 37 of their last 55 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Packers have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points. Additionally, Green Bay has played 11 of their last 14 games over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Packers have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total in the month of September — and this included them playing seven of their last 8 opening weeks to a new season Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Despite being slowed with that bum knee last year, Rodgers was careful with the football as he only threw two interceptions. His sound decision making helps explain why these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Chicago Over the Total. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (451) and the Chicago Bears (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (452) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (451). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) enters the new season looking to build off their 12-5 season that culminated in their heartbreaking 16-15 loss in the NFC Wildcard playoff game at home in Soldier Field against Philadelphia where a missed field goal that hit the uprights cost them the victory. Green Bay (0-0) looks to improve on a disappointing 6-9-1 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: There are a host of reasons why Chicago will have a worse record this season despite possibly being a better team overall. For starters, the Bears lost the second-fewest number of starters games to injuries last season which will be difficult for them to sustain. But this is a healthy team now that has been anxious to get back to Soldier Field to redeem themselves from that devastating playoff loss to the Eagles. Chicago was outstanding at home last year where they finished 7-2 with an average winning margin of +10.4 PPG. The Bears outgained their visitors by +78.5 net YPG as well given the strength of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky’s better play at home at Soldier Field. Chicago averaged 26.7 PPG at home while generating 365.7 total YPG. The Bears are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games as the favorite. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Bears will once again have an outstanding defense led by Khalil Mack — they led the NFL by allowing only 17.7 PPG. And while they also allowed 299.7 total YPG (3rd in the NFL), that number dropped to 287.2 total YPG when playing at home. Furthermore, Chicago typically plays very well against fellow NFC North foes as they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against divisional foes. Green Bay hopes to bounce-back from a 6-9-1 season — but this may be a team moving in the wrong direction considering that they are just 13-18-1 over the last two seasons. They only defeated one team with a winning record last year. Matt LaFleur will be making his debut as an NFL head coach in this game despite overseeing an offense in Tennessee last year that ranked just 25th in the league. But the offense looks in far better shape than the Packers defense that Football Outsiders ranked as fourth-worst in the NFL last year with their metrics. This unit did add Ames from the Bears via free agency to bolster their secondary — but this group has also seen attrition with them cutting veteran defensive lineman Mike Daniels and then losing starting linebacker Oren Burks to a pectoral injury. Green Bay drafted Rashan Gary as the 13th pick in the first round of the NFL draft — but he struggled in training camp while adapting to a new position at outside linebacker which is a strange way to deploy a player who was at best at Michigan when playing defensive tackle. The Packers allowed their home hosts to score 29.4 PPG last year while averaging 374 total YPG. Green Bay is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two meetings last year with Green Bay winning their first meeting in September by a 24-23 score before the Bears avenged that loss in December back at Soldier Field with their 24-17 victory as a 5.5-point favorite. The Packers have been overvalued in these divisional rivalries as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 meetings with an NFC North opponents — including failing to cover the point spread in their last four divisional games. 10* NFL Green Bay-Chicago NBC-TV Special with the Chicago Bears (452) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns thirteen starters from the team that lost to Clemson in the National Semifinals by a 30-3 score. Louisville (0-0) has sixteen starters back from last year’s dumpster fire that limped to a 2-10 season record.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Irish return seven starters with an offense that might be the most potent in head coach Brian Kelly’s ten years with the program. Kelly’s decision to elevate Ian Book to be his starting quarterback despite a 3-0 start to the season was inspired as the team averaged 36.6 PPG in his eight starts. The move to Book gave the Notre Dame offense a legitimate passing threat that they have not had in years to balance their strong rushing attack. Book threw at least two touchdown passes in all eight of his regular-season starts. While the Irish are dealing with injuries to junior wide receiver Michael Young and junior tight end Cole Kmet, the Irish have depth at the running back and wide receiver skill positions. The offense also has the benefit of four returning starters on offense. However, the Notre Dame defense is likely to take a step or two back with the loss of three key members of last year’s unit that have moved on to the NFL. The middle of the defense appears vulnerable with the Irish replacing two good defensive tackles along with two good linebackers — that level of the defense is now inexperienced and lacking in depth. And while Notre Dame has two great safeties in seniors Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman, it will be tough to replace the elite cover cornerback Julian Love who bypassed his senior year to go to the NFL. The Fighting Irish have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Notre Dame has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range — and this includes them playing four of their last five games on the road Over the Total with the number set in that range. Louisville cannot help but be better on defense this season after they ranked 122nd in the nation by allowing 483.6 total YPG. While ten starters return from that group, new head coach Scott Satterfield and his defensive coordinator at Appalachian State, Bryan Brown, have a major rebuilding task to clean up the hot mess that Bobby Petrino left behind after being fired late in the season. The Cardinals surrendered at least 52 points in each of their last five games — so it will likely be a long road back for this group. Louisville’s improvement should happen faster on the offensive side of the football under Satterfield who emphasized more running in the spread offensive attacks as the head coach at Appalachian State. Satterfield has tapped junior quarterback Jawon Pass to be his starter with a simplified playbook from the 2007 NFL playbook Petrino was still relying on from his year with the Atlanta Falcons. Satterfield will likely also give reps to Malik Cunningham who led the team in rushing last year and can better execute the rushing attack under center. The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Louisville has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog — and this includes them playing four of their last five home games Over the Total as the dog. And in their last 22 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points, the Cardinals have played 14 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Louisville averaged just 19.8 PPG last year (tied for 121s in the nation) while Notre Dame surrendered just 18.2 PPG (13th in the nation). Look for the Cardinals to score at least 20 points tonight with their offense improved and the Irish defense losing three players to the NFL. With the Irish a favorite approaching 20 points, Louisville scoring 20 points should put this game way Over the number given the number the Notre Dame is likely to put up in this game. 25* CFB ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (218) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns thirteen starters from the team that lost to Clemson in the National Semifinals by a 30-3 score. Louisville (0-0) has sixteen starters back from last year’s dumpster fire that limped to a 2-10 season record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisville was a complete dumpster fire last year under head coach Bobby Petrino who checked out from working hard as a football coach a number of years ago. The Cardinals were kryptonite to bettors last year as they suffered point spread losses by an average of -17.5 PPG — and they failed to cover the point spread by -21.8 PPG over their last five games when the players had clearly quit on the team. Kudos to those who consistently bet against Louisville down the stretch of the season (I just stayed away since any nominal increase in effort would have likely produced a point spread cover as double-digit dogs in those games). The Cardinals still have talent that first-year head coach Scott Satterfield has inherited including fourteen returning starters. While the Louisville defense allowed at least 52 points in each of their last five games, they held their first five opponents to a more manageable 26.0 PPG along with 385.8 total YPG — and those numbers are a better guide as to what to expect this season before this team went off the rails. Satterfield did a great job rebuilding the Appalachian State program — and while it will take awhile to rebuild the culture at Louisville, he will get this team playing hard again. The defense seems rejuvenated playing for defensive coordinator Bryan Brown after their humiliating end to last season — he brings an attacking system that emphasizes speed and smarts that was very effective for the Mountaineers. Satterfield also tapped Cort Dennison to serve as the co-defensive coordinator as he returns to the program after coaching at Oregon last year after a four-year stint as an assistant defensive coach for Petrino with the Cardinals — so he knows the players when they were younger and playing in a much more confident group. Notre Dame may be looking past this Louisville team after losing to the eventual national champions in the College Football Semifinals in their last game. Facing the Cardinals is a steep drop in glamour after hosting Michigan to begin last season. The Fighting Irish defense is likely to take a step or two back with the loss of three key members of last year’s unit that have moved on to the NFL. The middle of the defense appears vulnerable with the Irish replacing two good defensive tackles along with two good linebackers — that level of the defense is now inexperienced and lacking in depth. And while Notre Dame has two great safeties in seniors Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman, it will be tough to replace the elite cover cornerback Julian Love who bypassed his senior year to go to the NFL. On offense, the Irish are excited about what senior Ian Book can do as the starter for the entire season — they averaged 36.6 PPG in his eight regular-season starts last year (before being exposed by the outstanding Clemson defense). But Book is missing two of his important targets in wide receiver Michael Young and tight end Cole Kmet who are both out with collarbone injuries. Notre Dame is also dealing with some significant attrition on offense with running back Dexter Williams along with wide receiver Miles Boykin and tight end Alize Mack moving on to the NFL. The Irish are not quite at the level of the elite college football teams in their ability to just reload after seeing significant losses to the NFL. The last time Notre Dame lost this much talent, they suffered a 4-8 season the next year.

FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have won twenty-two of their last twenty-six games — but they have also won their last seven games decided by one possession including four net close wins by 8 points or less last season. While Kelly deserves credit for the leadership he has provided for this team to win these close games, those results help to inflate the perceived value of this team. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games when laying 14.5 or more points. 10* CFB Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Louisville Cardinals (218) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 8-5 after suffering a humiliating 70-14 loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. Oklahoma (0-0) has twelve starters back from the group that lost to Alabama in the College Football Playoff Semifinals by a 45-34 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sooners led the nation last year by averaging 48.4 PPG along with generating 570.3 total YPG. After seeing their offense improve their numbers in each of the last four seasons, the Regression Gods were likely to make a visit to Norman this year. But with Jalen Hurts the new starting quarterback for this team after his transfer from Alabama. Hurts has outstanding leadership skills as he led (the uber-talented) Crimson Tide to a 24-2 record as a starter. But Hurts does not have the same talent as Tua Tagovailoa nor Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray who have been the two Heisman Trophy winners that Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley has had at his disposal over the last two years. In four playoff game appearances, Hurts completed just 43% of his passes for the Tide while averaging just 3.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. There is a reason he was benched at halftime of the 2017 National Championship game against Georgia. The Sooners are also almost completely rebuilding their offensive line with four starters from last year departed to play in the NFL. Mayfield had the benefit of five returning starters on the offensive line two years with Murray having three returning starters last year. Hurts is not getting the same good opening hand as his two predecessors at Oklahoma. Even if the Sooners just reach their 48.4 PPG scoring mark from last year in this game, the Under should still be in pretty good shape with them being 23 or so point favorites against the Cougars. Of course, the Oklahoma defense was a mess last year as they ranked last in the Big 12 by allowing 33.3 PPG along with 453.8 total YPG. This unit can probably not help but improve under new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch who oversaw a very good defense in a previous stint at Washington State. Grinch has installed a new “positionless” scheme that emphasizes aggressiveness and play-making. This may be a better fit than the staler ideas of previous coordinate Mike Stoops. The Sooners’ secondary should be better with three juniors returning as starters who have received a baptism by fire last year. Houston will be installing a new offensive Air Raid scheme under new head coach Dana Holgorsen. The Cougars are happy to have a fully-healthy D’Eriq King back under center after he suffered a season-ending injury in mid-November. But this is an offense that Oklahoma is very familiar with given its deployment by many of the teams in the Big 12. Houston also had defensive issues last season after allowing 37.2 PPG along with 496.4 total YPG. That unit was ravaged by injuries — they allowed a more manageable 28.0 PPG in their first six games before their depleted unit surrendered 45.0 PPG in their final seven games. This defense will have something to prove after their embarrassing effort against Army in their bowl game where the team had checked out on head coach Major Applewhite. Holgorsen has proclaimed that playing good defense is a “high priority” for him — he has hired a good defensive coordinator in Joe Cauthen whose attacking style running the defense at Arkansas State led to 146 sacks over the last four seasons. Holgorsen has added six junior college transfers to improve the talent of this group led by cornerback Damarion Williams who was a junior college All-American last year. The Cougars have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in the first half of the regular season. Houston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the Big 12.

FINAL TAKE: With the Total eclipsing the 80 point mark in some spots, it will take a high level of offensive production of both teams to reach the Over. Don’t be surprised if both of these potent offenses make some execution mistakes in this opening game. This logic helps to inform a historical angle supporting the Under that has been 75% effective since 1992. In games in the first two weeks of the season with the Total set at 63 or higher between two teams from major 1-A conferences, when at least one of the teams returns a starting quarterback from the previous season, the game finished Under the Total in 40 of these last 53 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:44 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (207). THE SITUATION: Auburn (0-0) returns fourteen starters from last year’s team that finished off an 8-5 season by destroying Purdue by a 63-14 score in the Music City Bowl. Oregon (0-0) has seventeen starters back from their 9-4 campaign last year that concluded with a 7-6 win over Michigan State in the Redbox Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Ducks are intriguing to many bettors with all those returning starters to a program that once represented the Pac-12 on the national stage in high profile games like this. Oregon also has one of the top NFL quarterback projects in Justin Herbert who bypassed going pro to return to this team. But this Ducks team has made most of their noise as of late when playing at home in Autzen Stadium where they enjoy a significant advantage. But Oregon has lost eight of their last twelve games away from home on neutral fields or hostile environments. The Ducks were outscored in those games by -5.1 net PPG while scoring just 25 PPG. Oregon has also been outgained by -61 net YPG in those twelve away games. This compares unfavorably to their 12-2 record in their last fourteen games at home where they are scoring 44.4 PPG while outscoring their opponents by +19.4 PPG. Herbert was not nearly as effective away from home last year as well. The Ducks scored only 27.3 PPG on the road last year which was -7.5 PPG lower than their season average — and they also averaged just 209 passing YPG in those games which was almost 40 yards less than their 248 passing YPG mark overall. The Oregon defense is also an issue for this team if they wish to take a step up in competition — they ranked just 55th in the nation by allowing 385.9 total YPG. The Ducks have lost four straight games away from home when facing a ranked opponent. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Pac-12. And in their last 10 games as an underdog, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread 7 times. Auburn will be starting a freshman at quarterback in Bo Nix after he enjoyed a prolific high school career in Alabama. But this is a program that is well versed in high profile games like this. Besides their SEC competition including the Iron Bowl with Alabama every year, the Tigers defeated Washington in Atlanta on the neutral field of Mercedez Benz Stadium last year by a 21-16 score — and I consider that Huskies team to be much better than this Ducks team now. Auburn has won eleven of their last thirteen opening games to a new season. Oregon has received tons of accolades in the offseason with their five returning starters on the offensive line who lead the entire FBS with 153 combined starts between them. But the Tigers have five 5th year senior starters on their offensive line to help protect Nix. Furthermore, Auburn may very well have the best defensive line in the country. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have won six straight games straight-up against Pac-12 opponents when playing on a neutral field with their win over the Huskies adding to that streak last year. While the departed Jarrett Stidham has looked very good in the preseason for the Patriots (and he just won the backup job today with New England releasing Brian Hoyer), Nix may be a better fit for the Gus Malzahn offense given his ability to move the ball with his legs. 10* CFB Oregon-Auburn ABC-TV Special with the Auburn Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). THE SITUATION: Ball State (0-0) returns seventeen starters from their team that finished 4-8 last season. Indiana (0-0) returns fourteen starters from last year’s 5-7 team. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals were hit hard by transfers in the offseason with six players leaving the program. The offense lost two incumbent starters from last year in senior quarterback Riley Neal who transferred to Vanderbilt and senior running back James Gilbert who moved to Kansas State. There is an argument to be had that perhaps both these players were going to lose their jobs this season. On the other hand, Neal had started 32 games for Ball State while throwing for 7393 yards and 46 touchdown passes while Gilbert rushed for 2806 yards in his career with the program — and that was good enough to entice two football programs in Power Five conferences. Ball State was just 102nd in the FBS last year by scoring just 4.2 points per trip inside the 40-yard line. Any improvements on offense will likely not materialize right away. As it is, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. I do expect to see significant improvements from the Ball State defense that returns nine starters. This is the second year for this unit playing in a 3-4 formation. This move worked for the first seven games last year under defensive coordinator David Elson as they hold those first seven opponents to just 23.9 PPG. But injuries eventually took their toll as the Cardinals allowed their last five opponents to score 44.4 PPG as their lack of depth was exposed. Back at full health and with better depth from the experiences from last season, Ball State should be much improved in the second year playing in the 3-4 look. They return seventeen players who registered at teals ten tackles last year. The Cardinals have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the Mid-American Conference — and they have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against Big Ten foes. Ball State has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. The Hoosiers defense regressed last year with only three returning starters — they allowed 423.8 total YPG which was 83.7 YPG more than what they surrendered in 2017 when they ranked 27th in the nation in total defense. Don’t be surprised if this unit approaches those strong defensive numbers from two years ago with seven starters back along with eight of their top eleven tacklers from last year. Tom Allen feels confident enough with this group that he promoted linebackers coach Kane Wommack to defensive coordinator to free up his time focus exclusively with his head coaching duties. Allen has already made a big move by tapping redshirt freshman Michael Penix as the starting quarterback to replace returning starter Peyton Ramsey. Penix has a better runner with a stronger arm — but with this team playing in a new system under first-year offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer, it might take some time for this unit to gel. The Hoosiers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They also have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana won last year’s rivalry game between these two schools by a 38-10 score with that result falling well short of the 62.5 point Total. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (171) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (172). THE SITUATION: Toledo (0-0) returns eleven starters from last year’s 7-6 team that lost to Florida International in the Bahamas Bowl by a 35-32 score. Kentucky (0-0) has ten starters back from last year’s triumphant 10-3 squad who defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl by a 27-24 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are the only team in the nation to not take a step backward regarding their win-loss record in the last six seasons. Seventh-year head coach Mark Stoops has done a fantastic job building this program. But this Kentucky team will be very hard-pressed to keep that streak alive this season. This is a program that is simply not used to losing All-SEC talent — but Stoops must replace three players on defense who have taken their talents to the NFL in safety Mike Edwards, linebacker Jordan Jones and their leader on defense in linebacker Josh Allen who bypassed going to the NFL as a junior last season. The Wildcats return only four starters on defense. The identity of the offense will also change with running back Benny Snell decided to go pro. Kentucky will rely on a committee of running backs this season while putting more of the onus on offense on junior quarterback Terry Wilson. The Wildcats were a defense-first team last year that leaned heavily on Snell — a change in identity may not fit the skill set of Wilson who passed for only 1889 yards last year while throwing just 11 touchdowns along with eight interceptions. Kentucky finished 5-3 in SEC play last year but they were outgained by -18 net YPG in those games. This team has pulled ten upset victories in the last three years under Stoops — but being a double-digit favorite is a role they are not nearly as comfortable with embracing. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games when laying the points. Additionally, Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams outside the SEC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in six straight non-conference games at home. Toledo will be relishing this opportunity to knock off a Power-Five school. They should get much better play from quarterback Mitchell Guadagni who returns for his senior season. Guadagni was slowed by both a concussion and a broken collarbone last year but still managed an efficient 13-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio. He is supported by a backfield of Bryant Koback and Shakif Seymour who combined to rush for 1482 yards last year. The Rockets have typically been tough road warriors under Candle as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on the road. Toledo has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the month of August.

FINAL TAKE: Kentucky would like to think they are simply reloading this season — but this is a program that more often than not finds themselves rebuilding after outlier seasons like last year. Look for the Rockets to give this Wildcats team all that they can handle. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Toledo Rockets (171) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (172). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 7-6 after upsetting Missouri in the Liberty Bowl by a 38-33 score. Oregon State (0-0) returns sixteen starters from last year’s team that stumbled to a 2-10 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State is usually a reliable double-digit favorite even on the road under head coach Mike Gundy beginning his fifteenth year with the program. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. After three straight seasons with double-digit victories, Oklahoma State took a step back last year. Despite scoring 38.4 PPG (13th in the FBS) and averaging 500.2 total YPG (10th in the FBS), the offense took a step back from the previous season in large part because their quarterbacks completed only 59.4% of their passes while throwing 13 interceptions. In 2017, the Cowboys scored 45.0 PPG while generating 569.8 total YPG which was 4th and 2nd best in the country. Gundy may have found a gem to be his new offensive coordinator in Sean Gleeson who ran a very innovative offense at Princeton. Oklahoma State will have the benefit of surprise regarding what specialty plays Gleeson unveils in his debut with this offense. The Cowboys have not named a starting quarterback between redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders and graduate transfer Dru Brown who both were on the roster last season learning this offense. Gleeson often used more than one QB at Princeton so don’t be surprised if Oklahoma State rotates both quarterbacks tonight to confuse the Beavers with different looks. The Cowboys remain loaded with talent at the skill positions with three of their top four receivers returning this season — headlined by junior All-American Tylan Wallace — along with running back Chuba Hubbard who averaged over 100 rushing YPG against the gauntlet of Oklahoma, West Virginia, TCU and Missouri. Gundy’s teams start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played in the month of August. Oklahoma State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games outside the Big-12. And in their last 17 contests in expected high-scoring affairs with the Total set at 63 or higher, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 11 of these games. The defense should improve in the second season under defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Oregon State’s passing attack is the strength of their offense with returning starters at wide receiver and a sixth-year senior Jake Luton who has received medical exemptions after injuries have limited him to just nine starters in the last two seasons. But the strength of the Cowboys defense will likely be their secondary with all four starters returning. Oregon State will be without their top wideout in the speedy Trevon Bradford as the senior is out with a back injury. The Beavers may also be without their senior safety Jalen Moore who is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. These are two tough opening week injuries that will make it more difficult for Oregon State to stay competitive in this game. The Beavers were outscored by -20 PPG last season while also losing the yardage battle by -132 net YPG — and that margin was even worse in Pac-12 play where they were outgained by -178 YPG. Moore had 102 tackles last season — and even with him on the field, Oregon State allowed their opponents to have a Success Rate of 53.4% which was 129th in the FBS. That is an ominous number when facing this powerful Cowboys offensive attack. The Beavers allowed 45.7 PPG along with 536.8 total YPG which both ranked 128th in the nation. Home field has not been much of an advantage for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog. Additionally, Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. The Beavers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August.

FINAL TAKE: While the Cowboys allowed 452.5 total YPG last year, they do return five starters from that group which is a good sign for improvement (or at least that this team is undervalued right now) — and that helps place Oklahoma State into an early-season historical angle that has been 69% effective since 1992. In games played in the first two weeks of the season, road teams who allowed at least 400 YPG last season but return at least five defensive starters have then covered the point spread in 61 of the last 88 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (154) minus the points versus the Massachusetts Minutemen (153). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (0-0) return thirteen starters from a team that finished just 1-11 last season. UMass (0-0) has eight starters returning from a team that was 4-8 last year playing as an independent.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Chris Ash is on the hot seat in his fourth year in the program with a 7-29 record in his tenure. Rutgers has particularly struggled in Big Ten play where they are just 3-24 in the Ash era. It is very important for this team to get off to a good start which is why I expect a blowout tonight. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August. There are reasons for optimism. The Rutgers defense made dramatic improvements midseason last year when Ash started working directly with the group. The former Ohio State defensive coordinator saw that group allow 26.5 PPG over their last six games which was almost a 10 PPG improvement over the 36.3 PPG they allowed in their first six games. There is also continuity on offense for the first time in a decade with coordinator John McNulty returning for his second season overseeing that group. While the Scarlet Knights have not named a starter, don’t be surprised if McLane Carter is tapped over redshirt sophomore Artur Sitkowski who struggled last year. Carter is a graduate transfer from Texas Tech who was brought in to offer competition to Sitkowski who was last in the nation with a 76.4 Passer Efficiency Rating. Rutgers has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing at home. UMass is an appetizing opponent for the Scarlet Knights as they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games played in the opening two weeks of the season. Former Arkansas State offensive coordinator Walt Bell makes his debut as a head coach tonight for this program that lost all eight of their games last year by double-digits. Bell is considered a good recruiter but it will take time for that strength to start paying dividends wit this program. I expect a significant decline in the offensive production of this team with three-year starter, Andrew Ford, finally graduating. Bell has yet to name a starter between Michael Curtis, Randall West, and junior college transfer Andrew Brito. Without Ford under center, it will be very difficult for UMass to continue to average 7.2 Yards-Per-Play on first down as they did last season which was 8th best in the FBS. On defense, is it good news or bad news that the Minutemen return only three starters from last years team that ranked 123rd in the FBS by allowing 484.8 total YPG? UMass surrendered at least 55 points in six games last season. The cupboard may be very bare for this independent program that lost seven of their top eleven tacklers from last year. The Minutemen registered only ten sacks last year while ranking 125th in the FBS by allowing 274.8 rushing YPG. UMass has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. The Minutemen have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: UMass has lost seven straight road openers since joining the FBS in 2012 — with the average losing margin being -26 PPG. Ash and this Scarlet Knights program needs a blowout victory to establish positive momentum so expect them to keep their foot on the accelerator all night. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (154) minus the points versus the Massachusetts Minutemen (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (143) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (144). THE SITUATION: Utah (0-0) looks to build off a 9-5 season that concluded on a down note with a 31-20 loss to Northwestern in the Holiday Bowl. BYU (0-0) finished 7-6 last season after defeating Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 49-18 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: BYU returns seventeen starters from last year’s team along with twenty-six sophomores that played in games last season. But this team still lacks in experience and talent when compared to their in-state rival that is loaded with senior talent and future NFL players. The Cougars have lost eight straight Holy Wars against Utah. They lack a bell-cow running back with Squally Canada graduated from last year’s team. BYU will have a hard time running the football against a stout Utah defense that returns all four starters on the defensive line that finished 5th in the nation by allowing only 100.3 rushing YPG. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the first month of the season. BYU has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight home games as the underdog. Furthermore, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Utah is a sleeper team to make a run for the College Football Playoffs with fourteen returning starters. The Utes won their first nine games last year before enduring two tough injuries to QB Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss with both unable to play the final five games of the season. The Utah offense rattled off five straight games where they scored at least 40 points with a healthy Huntley and Moss. Head coach Kyle Whittingham has bolstered this offense by getting Andy Ludwig to return to the program to serve as their offensive coordinator. Utah averaged 36.9 PPG in their 2008 Sugar Bowl season with Ludwig coordinating the offense. The Utes defense is always quite good under Whittingham — they have held their opponents to under 20 PPG ten times in the past twenty-two seasons while surrounding more than 25.0 PPG just twice during that long span. Utah returns seven starters from a group that ranked 17th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG — and they also ranked 14th in the nation by limiting opponents to only 315.6 total YPG. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, Utah has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: BYU will be looking to avenge a 35-27 loss at Utah last November where they blew a 27-7 third-quarter lead. But the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 meetings with the Utes including their last four opportunities to host Utah. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Utah Utes (143) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-0) looks to rebound from a 3-9 campaign last season. Cincinnati (0-0) enjoyed an 11-2 record last season that was capped by a 35-31 victory over Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA started the season losing seven straight games last year under first-year head coach Chip Kelly. But a rotation of players loaded with freshmen and sophomores continued to improve with the Bruins winning three of their last five games including a 34-27 upset win over USC in the second-to-last game of their season. This should be a vastly improved team this year under a very good head coach in Kelly. The UCLA offense now has a clear direction with sophomore Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center who is a great fit for Kelly’s up-tempo spread offense schemes. The Bruins started last year with senior transfer from Michigan Wilton Speight as the starting quarterback who was not a great fit for Kelly’s typical offense since he lacked mobility as a pocket passer. UCLA also saw the emergence of senior running back Joshua Kelley who shined during conference play (including 289 yards against USC) en route to 1243 rushing yards. The Bruins offense averaged only 312 YPG in their first four games but generated 432 total YPG over their last eight games. With nine starters returning this season in the second-year of Kelly’s system, that level of productivity is probably the floor for this team. The defense should also be better after Kelly inherited a unit that allowed 36.6 PPG while ranking 122nd in the FBS by allowing 483.7 total YPG. Last year’s group allowed -2.5 fewer PPG along with 90 less rushing YPG — and with ten starters back which includes four sophomores who started as a freshman last season, this group should also make a big jump in their quality of play. UCLA has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 44 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Cincinnati returns fourteen starters from last year’s team including redshirt sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder who led the team last season. This was an offense that was perhaps too dependent on big plays last season — they averaged 3rd and long on 46.7% of their third downs last year. The biggest concern for the offense is the offensive line that returns only two starters. The defense returns seven starters from an outstanding group that was 11th in the nation by allowing just 303.5 total YPG. But the stout Bearcats defensive line from last season must replace all three of their starters including two outstanding leaders in defensive tackles Cortez Broughton and Marquise Copeland. Cincinnati has not retained much of a home-field advantage as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games at home. The Bearcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by 3 points or less. Furthermore, Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. And in their last 6 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening game between these two teams last season where Cincinnati pulled the upset on the road in a Rose Bowl by a 26-17 score despite being a two-touchdown underdog. Too much was being expected about that Kelly team in his first year with the Bruins program — but with an entire offseason to prepare for this rematch, look for UCLA to be primed to pull the upset in this revenge opportunity that can immediately launch this program into gear in Kelly’s second season. But take the points for a little road dog insurance. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) looks to build off an 8-6 campaign last year the culminated in a 31-14 loss to Louisiana Tech in the Hawai’i Bowl. Arizona (0-0) looks to improve on a 5-7 campaign last year where they failed to reach a bowl game in the first year under head coach Kevin Sumlin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are expected to improve this season to at least be bowl eligible this year with fifteen starters back. The hope is that senior quarterback Khalil Tate will return to his 2017 form after an early ankle injury limited his ability to move the ball with his legs. Tate rushed for only 224 yards last year after gaining 1141 yards on the ground in 2017. But Tate regressed as a passer as well as he completed only 56% of his passes which was a 6.2% drop from his 62% completion percentage in his sophomore season. While some of that can be explained away from being stuck in the pocket dependent on his arm, it seems also true that Tate simply struggled to adjust to offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone’s system. Tate is a phenomenal athlete — but he is not the most cerebral of quarterbacks. The pressure will be on him to keep Arizona one step ahead of their opponents with a suspect defense that was 92nd in the nation last year by allowing 432.0 total YPG. Eight starters return for defensive coordinator Marcel Yates — but this is a small unit that still lacks an identity. Sumlin’s teams tend to underachieve on the road — the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by more than a touchdown but no more than 14 points. This is expected to be a high-scoring contest — but the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 63 or higher. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the number set at 70 or higher. And in their last 11 games against teams outside the Pac-12, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the Pac-12. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at least at 70. Fourth-year head coach Nick Rolovich returns eighteen starters from last year’s group that far exceeded preseason expectations. Junior quarterback Cole McDonald is not being given nearly as much benefit of the doubt as Tate is for Arizona despite his dealing with injuries last season that impacted his productivity in the second half of the season. The Rainbow Warriors averaged 42.0 PPG in their first eight games last year — and McDonald is fully healthy again with eight other returning starters on offense. I expect a big day from the dual-threat QB against this suspect Wildcats defense that finished second-to-last in the Pac-12 in defensive pass efficiency. I also think the defense will take a step in the right direction under Corey Baton who is the first returning coordinator in nine years for this unit. Baton has nine returning starters back.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i typically starts the season strong as they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games in the first two weeks of a new season which includes five straight point spread covers in the month of August. This is a dangerous opening contest on the road for this Arizona team. Expect a close game. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (292) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (291). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) kicks off their season looking to improve on a 7-6 campaign last year that concluded with a 35-3 loss to Wisconsin in the Pinstripe Bowl. Florida (0-0) ended last year on a high note with a 41-15 blowout victory over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field in Orlando, Florida at Camping World Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: The Gators come off a strong final impression from last season with their high profile victory over Michigan on New Year’s Day — but that result probably inflates their value for this opening contest. The Wolverines saw a number of their best players sit out that game to protect their potential draft value including two future first-round NFL picks in Rashan Gary and Devin Bush. And, frankly, Michigan was simply uninspired to play that game after suffering a humiliating loss at Ohio State to close out their season and ruin their potential College Football playoff chances. The bowl committee then linked the Wolverines with a Florida team that they had crushed by a 41-7 score in the 2015 Citrus Bowl before soundly defeating them again to open the 2017 season in AT&T Stadium in Dallas by a 33-17 score. For head coach Dan Mullen, it was easy to motivate his team to pull the upset over Michigan as a measuring stick for the growth of the program in his first year. The Gators return five starters on offense led by junior quarterback Feleipe Franks — but the biggest question mark for that unit is an offensive line that replaces four multi-year starters who had combined for 141 starts in their tenure. Outside of right tackle Jack Delance who is a former four-star recruit who transferred to Gainesville, Mullen has a crop of former three-star recruits who were previously relegated to backup roles before this season. This is a very difficult opening assignment against a stout Miami defense that once again likely sports one of the top ten defensive lines in the country. The Florida defense lost three players to the NFL. While they return eight starters, that unit has holes to fill at linebacker. Miami brings a renewed sense of optimism this season under first-year head coach  Manny Diaz who was the defensive coordinator last season. Diaz accepted the head coaching job at Temple in the offseason before the Hurricanes accepted third-year head coach Mark Richt’s sudden “retirement” which compelled them to reach out to Diaz to wiggle out of his deal with the Owls and return to South Beach as the lead man. Diaz returns six starters from his defense that was 4th in the nation by holding opponents to just 278.9 total YPG. The offense was the bigger problem for the Hurricanes under Richt. Last year, Miami endured a four-game stretch where they failed to eclipse 21 points. Diaz addressed that issue by poaching Dan Enos who was Alabama’s quarterback coach last season (after first agreeing to join the offensive coaching staff at Michigan). The former Central Michigan head coach will install a “spread coast” offense that should be more dynamic. Diaz has also broken from the past by naming redshirt freshman Jarren Williams his starting quarterback. The dual-threat QB must have impressed in fall camp because he had stiff competition from returning starter in N’Kosi Perry and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell who was likely the incumbent quarterback in Columbus this year before the Buckeyes acquired Justin Fields in his transfer from Georgia. Williams has talent at his disposal at the skill positions that Enos’ new offense is designed to get into space.

FINAL TAKE: This Miami team suffered five net upset losses last season as they were a program that expected to find ways to lose games given the quarterback struggles of Perry and the graduated Malik Rosier. The slate is now clean — and this is a great opportunity to hit the ground running by pulling the upset against a high-profile in-state rival in the first meeting between these blue blood programs since 2013. The Gators benefitted from a +12 net turnover margin last year which was tied for 7th best in the nation. But on a neutral field in what will be very hot temperatures, their offensive line will be severely challenged by a tough defensive line that can rotate plenty of bodies. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams — and the underdog has also covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two rivals. 10* CFB Miami (FL)-Florida ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (292) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (291). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (13-5) has reached the Super Bowl for the third straight year along with fourth time in the last five seasons with their 37-31 win in overtime at Kansas City as a 3-point underdog. Los Angeles (15-3) earned the right to play them with their 26-23 upset win in overtime in New Orleans as a 3-point underdog. Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will host Super Bowl LIII.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS POINTS: The Rams were one of the top two betting favorites to win the Super Bowl before the season started but I always considered them overrated. Playoff wins over a Cowboys team that finished 3-6 on the road while scoring 17.4 PPG in those contests and then the controversial way they won in New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game did little to change this initial opinion. The travesty non-call on wide receiver Tommylee Lewis likely cost the Saints the game — and that call obscured another bad non-call penalty interference on Ted Ginn on the previous drive that probably sets up another New Orleans scoring drive. Admittedly, the officials missed a face mask call on Jared Goff in their game-tying drive that ended in a field goal — but the terrible officiating did more to keep the Rams in the game, all things considered. This represents the signature victory for Los Angeles this season — yet it lacks any definitive statement moving forward given the shaky circumstances from which they escaped with the win. The Rams defeated a still-improving Chargers team earlier in the season before beating Kansas City at home who proved to be a team that simply could not stop any quality offense. I had concerns over whether the Rams’ collections of free agent splurges could come together to form a cohesive unit given the history of Dan Snyder’s teams in Washington and the so-called “dream team” of the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles. I have never loved the collection of egos that were assembled with this team — and the two weeks of Super Bowl hype is not the best way for hired guns to mentally prepare for a game of this magnitude. And given that this franchise is facing a salary cap crunch in the offseason, there is tremendous pressure on this team to take advantage of this moment. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Patriots have a substantial advantage at quarterback given the experience of Tom Brady versus a Jared Goff playing in just his fourth playoff game. Goff was exposed late in the season when made uncomfortable against the Bears and Eagles in a game plan that Bill Belichick will have completely mastered. While Goff made some great plays in the second-half against the Saints, this is still a quarterback who did not play nearly as well on the road and who clearly missed his security blanket in wide receiver Cooper Kupp who suffered a season-ending injury midseason. The weakness of the Rams’ defense has always been their linebackers after they traded Robert Quinn and Alec Ogletree in the offseason to clear cap room space. That left that group thin on the edge which has been compounded by the decline of inside linebacker Mark Barron whose past Achilles’ injury has seen his speed and athleticism dwindle to subpar levels. Los Angeles is second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt from play-action passes. Brady is going to pick apart this Rams’ defense in the middle of the field with his assortment of weapons that feasts on mismatches like this. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has been stubborn with his cornerback positioning by keeping Talib Aqib on the left side of the field which allowed opponents to exploit Marcus Peters. LA ranked 2nd in the NFL in pass defense on Aqib’s side of the field when he was healthy while ranking 24th in the league on Peters’ left side — and these vulnerabilities are exactly the things that Brady will have a field day exploiting. This is an opportunity for New England to redeem themselves from last year’s loss in the Super Bowl. While the final score indicated that the Eagles won by 8 points, remember that the Patriots had a 33-32 lead with under 3 minutes to go before letting that game slip away. Brady was sensational in that game against a defense better than this Rams’ unit — he completed 28 of 48 passes for 505 yards with three touchdowns all without the services of the injured Julian Edelman. Brady’s offensive support is better this time around with a healthy Edelman and an improved offensive line. Brady was not sacked in 90 passing attempts in this year’s playoffs. And don’t underestimate the positive impact of rookie running back Sony Michel who has given the Patriots their most talented running back in years. Finally, I just find the playoff experience that this New England team enjoys to offer this franchise a decisive edge. This is Brady and Belichick’s ninth Super Bowl appearance in eighteen seasons. Belichick’s assistants have been with him for years as well: offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been with New England for fifteen of Belichick’s nineteen seasons there; offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia has been with them for seventeen of Belichick’s nineteen seasons; running backs coach Ivan Fears has been there for all nineteen seasons. From the two weeks of preparation and planning for the Super Bowl to the management of the game, the Patriots simply have a huge edge. While Sean McVay is the wunderkind of the league now, his reputation was saved by the bad non-call late in the game against the Saints that pushed to the background his bad decision to not go for the touchdown earlier in the 4th quarter when he elected to kick a tying field goal. Rams’ backers for this game mention things like the “value” they offer as a small underdog. I think those are sentiments that are rationalizing hype from the preseason. Let’s also remember that New England has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record while also covering the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams opened as a 1.5-point favorite but were quickly bet down to a 1-point underdog to the Patriots. Since that time, New England has been bet up to 2.5 to 3-point favorites as of a week before the game. This line movement is consistent with how I initially handicapped this matchup. I did consider a contrarian angle regarding the Rams being pushed by the commentary that New Orleans was robbed by the referees but I quickly dismissed it. I don’t think the Rams need any more bulletin board material for them to get motivated to win a championship. Besides, the referee's storyline from last week will be old news by kick off for this game. The Patriots traveled to Arrowhead Stadium and outgained Kansas City by a decisive 524 to 290 margin. With the edges in coaching, quarterback, and playoff experience (after losing last year’s Super Bowl that I saw as basically a coin flip or two away from them winning), New England is the strong play. 25* NFL Super Bowl A-List Special with the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. For those interested in Super Bowl Props, I will have my Betting Card for a Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet (offering the best value relative to the odds), and my top Long Shot Bet by Saturday (2/2) with it attached as a Free Bonus to a Saturday (and Sunday) College Basketball play.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (13-5) has reached the Super Bowl for the third straight year along with fourth time in the last five seasons with their 37-31 win in overtime at Kansas City as a 3-point underdog. Los Angeles (15-3) earned the right to play them with their 26-23 upset win in overtime in New Orleans as a 3-point underdog. Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will host Super Bowl LIII.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: In theory, these are two teams that like to run the ball first to establish their passing game. Both these teams have two of the best offensive lines in the NFL. New England lacks a dynamic deep threat after they lost the services of wide receiver Josh Gordon. Los Angeles has evolved into a power run team with the addition of C.J. Anderson to complement running back Todd Gurley. Yet even if this is a low scoring game early on, I expect the final score to reach the Over. In part, because this game shapes up to be very competitive, the closeness of the game should push the scoring up. And as things get more desperate as the game gets into the 4th quarter, both teams’ passing games should take over. We certainly got burned in the AFC Championship Game with New England going into the 4th quarter with a 17-7 score before 38 combined points were scored to ruin our Under play. The Patriots scored 31 points in regulation away from the Meadowlands in less cold weather while reaching 524 total yards of offense after their overtime touchdown drive. Offensive proficiency like that from Tom Brady typically is a sign that New England should be able to keep their offense clicking on all cylinders. The Patriots have played 53 of their last 79 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 34 of their last 52 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 40 of their last 61 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Patriots also lit up the good Chargers defense for 41 points in their 13-point win in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points in two straight contests. The extra week of preparation should help Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels scheme for the Rams defense as they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with two weeks of preparation. Additionally, the Patriots have played 7 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Over the Total. This Super Bowl will feature two defenses that are middle of the pack — the metrics from Football Outsiders ranks New England 16th in the league in defensive DVOA while the Rams rank 19th in that metric. The Patriots allowed 24.8 PPG when playing away from home this season while Los Angeles gives up 24.0 PPG overall for the year. The Rams should dial up a great offensive game plan to take advantage of the Patriots defense that could not stop the Chiefs in the 4th quarter. Los Angeles has played 18 of their last 29 games Over the Total when playing with two weeks of rest and preparation. The Rams got sensational play from Jared Goff in the second-half of their victory over the Saints. Goff completed 25 of 40 passes for 297 yards after leading his team to their game-winning field goal in overtime. Los Angeles has then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. And while the Rams have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the high-50s for this Super Bowl — but that is warranted given the ideal conditions in the dome stadium and the high level of proficiency from both these offenses. Expect a high-scoring game. 25* NFL Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. For those interested in Super Bowl Props, I will have my Betting Card for a Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet (offering the best value relative to the odds), and my top Long Shot Bet by Saturday (2/2) with it being attached as a Free Bonus to a Saturday (and Sunday) College Basketball play).

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: New England (12-5) reached the AFC Championship Game last Sunday with their 41-28 win at home over the LA Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite. Kansas City (13-4) has won their last two games after their 31-13 win over Indianapolis last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Patriots’ 43-40 win against the Chiefs in Foxboro back on October 14th as a 3.5-point favorite. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While an Arctic blast will not be hitting Arrowhead Stadium for this game, the temperature will still be in the 20s during this game to produce less than ideal conditions for both offenses. It is telling this is the highest over/under number for a game with the temperatures expected to be below 30 degrees since the Patriots played the Packers at Lambeau Field back on 2014 which New England lost by a 26-21 score. It would be foolish to take the Under only because that Under came through — but that comparison does underscore that the number is unseasonably high despite these weather conditions. This rematch is unlikely to approach the 83 combined points that were scored in Foxboro. The Patriots scored just under 10 points more than their season average at home in Foxboro for that game — but they see their scoring drop to just 21.6 PPG on the road. They have only scored 28 or more points once away from home this year. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road while also playing 14 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. New England’s lack of a vertical threat on offense after the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon will make moving the ball much more difficult this time around. They ate up a KC defense in that first meeting that allows 34.3 PPG on the road — but that number plummets to just 17.4 PPG at home which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. The noise of the Arrowhead home crowd certainly helps to disrupt opposing offenses snap counts and the ability of opposing quarterbacks to call audibles at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs’ pass rush thrives at home as well — they lead the NFL with 34 sacks at home and a pressure rate of 36.9% as compared to their 25.9% pressure rate on quarterbacks on the road which ranks only 26th in the league. Kansas City has played 19 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Chiefs have also played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Kansas City has scored at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. Don’t underestimate what Belichick will be able to do to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ defense in this rematch — and his experience coaching games in cold weather will likely make the challenge on the young quarterback even more difficult. Mahomes was tearing up the league by averaging 9.34 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first eleven weeks of the season — but defenses have caught up a bit since he has seen that number drop to 7.6 YPA in his last six starts.

FINAL TAKE: While 83 combined points were scored between these two teams in their first meeting, this rematch should seem far fewer points this time around. 25* AFC Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.